LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 12/17
Compiled &
Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations
He who observes the wind won’t sow; and he who regards the
clouds won’t reap.
Ecclesiastes
11/01-10/11:1 Cast your bread on the waters; for you shall find it after many
days. Give a portion to seven, yes, even to eight; for you don’t know what evil
will be on the earth. If the clouds are full of rain, they empty themselves on
the earth; and if a tree falls toward the south, or toward the north, in the
place where the tree falls, there shall it be. He who observes the wind won’t
sow; and he who regards the clouds won’t reap. As you don’t know what is the way
of the wind, nor how the bones grow in the womb of her who is with child; even
so you don’t know the work of God who does all. In the morning sow your seed,
and in the evening don’t withhold your hand; for you don’t know which will
prosper, whether this or that, or whether they both will be equally good. Truly
the light is sweet, and a pleasant thing it is for the eyes to see the sun. Yes,
if a man lives many years, let him rejoice in them all; but let him remember the
days of darkness, for they shall be many. All that comes is vanity. Rejoice,
young man, in your youth, and let your heart cheer you in the days of your
youth, and walk in the ways of your heart, and in the sight of your eyes; but
know that for all these things God will bring you into judgment. Therefore
remove sorrow from your heart, and put away evil from your flesh; for youth and
the dawn of life are vanity.
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on November
11-12/17
Lebanon’s Crisis on Verge of Inevitable
Confrontation/Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 11/17
What will Become of the ‘Second Lebanese Uprising’/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al
Awsat/November 11/17
Syrian refugees in Lebanon face eviction/Scott Preston/Al Monitor/November 10,
2017
Gulf nationals exit Lebanon/Najia Houssary/Arab News/November 2017
Sa'ad Hariri: The accidental politician/Omar Shariff/Gulf News/November 10, 2017
A Month of Islam and Multiculturalism in France: October 2017/Soeren Kern/Gatestone
Institute/November 11/17
Iran’s ‘Malign Activities’ and the Need to Put the Spotlight on its
Actions/Dennis Ross/Asharq Al Awsat/November 11/17
How Iran Tried to Turn Arab States into Fading Ghosts/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al
Awsat/November 11/17
Name: "Sword of Islam"? Let Him In/Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/November
11/17
Fundamental Saudi shifts and the change coming to the Middle East/Raghida
Dergham/November 11/17
Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
November
11-12/17
Tillerson: No place or role in Lebanon for any militias or
armed elements
Saudi minster: We will reveal the person who sold the Lebanese and incites us
Lebanese President Concludes Consultations amid Calls for Dialogue on
‘Hezbollah’ Arms
Lebanon Grand Mufti stresses importance of brotherly relations with Saudi Arabia
Report: Security Agencies Uncover Plots to Trigger Instability, Assassinations
Geagea Urges Hizbullah's Withdrawal from Regional Conflicts as Solution for
Hariri's 'Crisis'
A Political Shock Throws Lebanon's Economy Back into Crisis
US and France Express Strong Support to Lebanon amid Crisis
Report: Aoun Mulling 'Complaint to UN' Over Hariri's Fate
Aoun Calls on SA to Clarify Delay in Hariri's Return, Says Beirut Marathon to
Run in Solidarity with PM
Three Suspects Injured in Army Search for Abducted Saudi in Bekaa
Lebanon’s Crisis on Verge of Inevitable Confrontation
Way Hariri resigned unacceptable, Aoun tells Saudi diplomat
Conflicting Reports About Hariri’s House Arrest
Hariri Holds Diplomatic Meetings in Riyadh, Rahi to Visit Saudi Arabia on Monday
Lebanese political crisis: the background
What will Become of the ‘Second Lebanese Uprising’?
Syrian refugees in Lebanon face eviction
Gulf nationals exit Lebanon
Sa'ad Hariri: The accidental politician
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on November
11-12/17
ISIS regains full control of Syria border town Albu Kamal:
monitor
Iraqi interior minister says 41 Iranians arrested after crossing borders
Jailed British-Iranian woman 'suicidal' in Iranian prison
Israel Downs Syrian Spy Drone over Golan Heights
Kremlin: Trump, Putin Agree there is No Military Solution in Syria
Iraq Launches Offensive to Recapture Last Town under ISIS Control
Libyan Presidential Council Seizes Control of West as Sewehli Escalates Anti-Haftar
Rhetoric
Bahrain oil pipeline fire was act of sabotage - Interior Ministry
Egyptian forces destroy arms smugglers’ vehicles on Libya border
Egypt FM to Tour Gulf in Push for Political Solution
Trade Ministers Agree Asia-Pacific Trade Pact without US
Latest Lebanese Related News published on November
11-12/17
Tillerson: No place or role in Lebanon for any militias or
armed elements
Al Arabiya/November 11/17/US
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Friday warned other countries and groups
against using Lebanon as a vehicle for a larger proxy fight in the Middle East,
saying the United States strongly backed Lebanon’s independence. “There is no
legitimate place or role in Lebanon for any foreign forces, militias or armed
elements other than the legitimate security forces of the Lebanese state,”
Tillerson said in a statement released on Friday by the US State Department.
The United States views Hariri as a ‘strong partner’, added Tillerson. The
French Foreign Ministry also issued a statement that France wants Saad al-Hariri
to be fully able to play his essential role in Lebanon. With agencies.
Saudi minster: We will reveal the person who sold the Lebanese and incites us
Al Arabiya/November 11/17
/Saudi Minister Thamer al-Sabhan said on Saturday that the recent “biddings” by
the Lebanese government on former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were “very
funny.”Sabhan wrote a post on Twitter saying: “The bidding on the subject of
Hariri is very funny, all this love and affection. You killed his father and
killed the hope of the Lebanese people to live a peaceful and moderate life and
you try to kill him politically and physically.”He said: "The strange fact is
who follows them and we will soon reveal the person who sold the Lebanese and
incites us now."
Lebanese President Concludes Consultations amid Calls for Dialogue on
‘Hezbollah’ Arms
Asharq Al-Awsat/November
11/17/
Lebanese President Michel Aoun is still committed to his refusal to approve the
resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri until his return to Beirut as various
Lebanese officials have started to demand that attention be turned to the issue
of “Hezbollah”, its arms and role in the region. Aoun continued on Friday his
series of consultations with Arab ambassadors and the International Support
Group (ISG) for Lebanon, presenting them with his country’s stance on the latest
developments. He also criticized the way in which Hariri tendered his
resignation, reported the National News Agency. According to a statement from
the presidency, Aoun stressed to the ISG the importance of international
agreements on the relations between nations and the protection they provide. He
also assured ambassadors of the “Lebanese leaders’ diligence and solidarity
during this critical time in Lebanon’s history and their keenness on bolstering
national unity, which has helped the country preserve its security and financial
stability.”The ISG expressed their continuing concern regarding the situation
and prevailing uncertainty in Lebanon. They appealed for Lebanon to continue to
be shielded from tensions in the region. In this regard, they stressed the
importance of restoring the vital balance of Lebanon’s state institutions,
essential to Lebanon’s stability, they said in a statement. Noting the positive
political achievements of the past year, ISG members urge all sides to continue
to work for Lebanon’s national interests. Meanwhile, Hariri received at his
residence in Riyadh on Friday the Italian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Luca
Ferrari, and the Russian Ambassador, Sergei Kozlov. Mustaqbal Movement MP Oqab
Saqr told Asharq Al-Awsat that the crisis in Lebanon cannot be resolved before
resolving the issue of “Hezbollah’s” arms that have gone beyond the country’s
borders. This is a stance shared by Lebanese Forces sources, who said that
waiting to approve Hariri’s resignation is aimed at buying time so that the
party and its camp can prepare for the next phase in Lebanon. The party and its
allies have realized that this is the point of no return, added the
sources.Despite their conviction that forming a new government would be
impossible, they said that Aoun is obligated to call on parliamentary
consultations so that Hariri can be once against appointed to form a new
cabinet.
That way the president would have adhered to constitutional procedures, they
explained. “Everyone realizes that ending the crisis can only be achieved with
‘Hezbollah’ returning to Lebanon and handing over its weapons,” said the LF
sources.
Any internal dialogue on this issue will benefit Lebanon and the Lebanese, they
remarked. Head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, had meanwhile held talks
with numerous ambassadors to Lebanon over the crisis. Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul
Latif Daryan continued his consultations over the crisis, stressing before
political delegations that “calm dialogue and diligence in tackling issues
between all Lebanese powers is a national necessity in wake of the critical
phase the country is passing through.”He said that officials should not be hasty
in making a stance over Hariri’s resignation, underlining the “historic
fraternal ties” Beirut enjoys with Riyadh. In New York, United Nations Secretary
General Antonio Guterres had meanwhile carried out intense contacts on Lebanon
over the past two days.
Lebanon Grand Mufti stresses importance of brotherly relations with Saudi Arabia
Al Arabiya/November 11/17
/Lebanon’s Grand Mufti Abdul Sheikh Abdul Latif Deryan reemphasized on Friday
the importance of "brotherly and historic relations" that tie the Middle Eastern
country to Saudi Arabia. His remarks come after the resignation of Prime
Minister Saad al-Hariri last week. Hariri has made no public remarks since
announcing his resignation in a speech televised from Saudi Arabia, saying he
feared assassination and accusing Iran and Hezbollah of sowing strife in the
Arab world.
Report: Security Agencies Uncover Plots to Trigger
Instability, Assassinations
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November
11/17/Some contacts with the aim of triggering confusion and inciting the Sunni
community and the Palestinian factions in Lebanon were monitored, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Saturday. A security source revealed to the daily that they
monitored “in the last few days some contacts with the aim of inciting the
'Sunni street' and Palestinian factions, but they have failed in their
endeavor.”According to information, the source warned of assassination plots
with the aim of triggering sectarian strife and creating chaos.The source who
spoke on condition of anonymity did not elaborate further but said that “former
Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi is at risk in that regard.”Meanwhile, Army
commander General Jospeh Aoun has assured that the “security situation is under
control and that protecting Lebanon's stability is a priority.”Since Prime
Minister Saad Hariri's shock resignation last week, Lebanon has been embroiled
in confusion. Hariri resigned in a shock announcement broadcast from Riyadh on
Saturday as a power struggle intensified between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which
backs Lebanon's Hizbullah. On Friday, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
warned that a new conflict in Lebanon would have "devastating consequences" and
said he was engaged in intense contacts with all players to urge de-escalation.
Guterres said he had been holding "very intense contacts" with Saudi Arabia,
Lebanon, other countries in the region as well as governments with influence in
the Middle East. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has also warned other
countries Friday against using Lebanon for "proxy conflicts" following the
crisis triggered by Hariri's resignation. Tillerson also described Hariri as a
"strong partner" of the United States.Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
said Friday that Hariri was "detained" by Saudi Arabia and prevented from
returning to Lebanon. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have urged their citizens to leave
Lebanon while the UAE has renewed a travel warning.
Geagea Urges Hizbullah's Withdrawal from Regional Conflicts as Solution for
Hariri's 'Crisis'
Naharnet/November 11/17/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said on Saturday
that “if the March 8 alliance truly” wants PM Saad Hariri's return they would
“withdraw from the crises in the region.”“To all those of March 8 group shedding
tears over Hariri's absence...If you truly want his return to Lebanon it only
requires a single decision of withdrawing from the crises in the region,” said
Geagea in a tweet. Geagea's tweet came in reference to Hizbullah's involvement,
without naming the party, in the crisis in Syria and other Arab countries as a
power struggle intensified between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which backs Lebanon's
Hizbullah. A political crisis has gripped Lebanon and shattered the relative
peace maintained by its coalition government since Hariri's stunning
announcement on Nov. 4 from Riyadh that he was resigning. Lebanese officials
have insisted on the return home of Hariri from Saudi Arabia amid rumors he is
being held against his will.
A Political Shock Throws Lebanon's Economy Back
into Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 11/17/Just when things were starting to look
up for Lebanon's economy, a new political crisis threatens to send it crashing
down again. Prime Minister Saad Hariri's shock resignation could unravel the
first steps in years toward injecting some cash and confidence in Lebanon's
anemic economy. Already, the crisis is putting at risk multi-billion-dollar
plans to rebuild decaying road and electrical and communication networks and get
the oil and gas sector moving. Lebanon has long been buffeted by blows from the
great-powers rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But its economy sputtered on
under a tacit understanding among the regional heavyweights and their local
proxies that left Lebanon on the sidelines of that contest. That may have
changed Saturday when the Saudi-aligned Hariri announced his resignation in a
televised statement from the kingdom's capital, Riyadh, saying Hizbullah, Iran's
proxy in Lebanon, had taken the country hostage. It was an unexpected
announcement from the premier, who formed a coalition government with the group
less than a year ago. Since then, the news has only gotten worse. Saudi Arabia,
which feels it has been humiliated by Hizbullah's expanding influence in Syria
and Iraq, says it will not accept the party as a participant in any government
in Lebanon.Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates all
ordered their citizens out of Lebanon this week, and the Lebanese are wondering
and worried about what's to come.
"We don't know how things will escalate," said Rida Shayto, an associate
director at the pharmaceutical manufacturer Algorithm, which does half its sales
to the Gulf. The developments have stunned the Mediterranean country, which once
looked to Saudi Arabia as a pillar to its own stability. The kingdom brokered
the Taif agreement in 1989 that ushered in peace for Lebanon after 15 years of
civil war. The kingdom has plowed decades of investment into Lebanon, opened
markets to trade and allowed generations of talented and ambitious Lebanese to
work in its oil-based economy. The concern now is that the kingdom and other
Gulf nations will throw out Lebanese workers, as they did with Qatar this summer
in a rage over that country's perceived closeness to Iran. Some 220,000 Lebanese
work in Saudi Arabia and send back close to $2 billion in remittances each year,
according to Mounir Rached, a senior economic adviser to the Finance Ministry.
Lebanese are hoping Saudi Arabia will be too wary of the negative impact on its
own economy from such a mass expulsion. Many Lebanese hold managerial positions,
including in the kingdom's all-important oil sector, and it would take time to
refill the posts. An expulsion would also undermine decades of Saudi efforts to
cultivate ties with Lebanese Sunnis. "I think those who are invested in Lebanon
are not going to come and destroy everything that they did in terms of
relationships and associations and credibility," said Kamel Wazni, an economist
and sometimes adviser to Hariri's government. But the kingdom and its powerful
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who has made his name by dramatic — or
reckless, as his critics put it — moves, can't be seen as doing nothing, said
Randa Slim, a Lebanese analyst at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"They have locked themselves into an escalatory path without giving themselves
an exit," she said. The kingdom could expel Lebanese Shiites and Christians, she
said. Shiites are Hizbullah's constituency and some Christian parties have
allied with it. They number 10,000 to 20,000 in Saudi Arabia, according to
Rached, the Finance Ministry adviser. As it is, the biggest threat now is a
retreat to the political paralysis that has crimped growth since 2011. Lebanon,
once a beacon of free market growth and joie de vivre living, was paralyzed for
years over how to respond to the catastrophic civil war consuming its neighbor
and trade partner, Syria. Hariri's Future Movement, the largest party in
Parliament, wanted Lebanon out of Syrian affairs, while Hizbullah was sending
its fighters there to fight on behalf of President Bashar Assad. The political
log-jam resulted in Lebanon not having a president for more than two years and
no economic vision to attract investment. Meanwhile, refugees poured into the
country— more than one million of them, equivalent to a quarter of Lebanon's
population — depressing wages in service and labor sectors. Hariri became
premier under a deal that broke the deadlock and allowed the election of a
Hizbullah-friendly president. The political breakthrough also brought an end to
the stagnation in economic policy. The country passed its first budget since
2005, raising taxes and public salaries and opening up two oil and gas blocks
off its coastline for drilling in a bid to bring in some sorely-needed
investment.
That project and a $21 billion investment plan to improve the country's woefully
inadequate infrastructure are now on ice. "The council of ministers will not be
able to take a decision in the current conditions," said Nassib Ghobril, the
chief economist at Lebanon's Byblos Bank, of the gas and oil bills. The
government also needs to find revenues to service a public debt that has reached
more than $75 billion — 140 percent of the gross domestic product, a debt-to-GDP
ratio that is among the highest in the world. A key factor for stability has
been the strength of its currency, the pound, pegged at 1,500 pounds to the
dollar since the 1990s. For now, at least, experts believe that seems safe. The
Central Bank holds $43.5 billion in foreign currency reserves, enough to sustain
the peg for one to two decades at the current pace of currency conversions.
There has been a flurry of transactions from pound to dollar among Lebanese
accounts, bankers have told The Associated Press.But as long as the dollars stay
circulating in Lebanon's already largely dollarized economy, the peg will remain
stable. "I don't have any concern about the stability of the exchange rate,"
said Ghobril.
US and France Express Strong Support to Lebanon amid Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 11/17/The United States and France have
expressed their support for Lebanon's sovereignty and stability amid heightening
tensions between Beirut and Saudi Arabia. A political crisis has gripped Lebanon
and shattered the relative peace maintained by its coalition government since
Prime Minister Saad Hariri's stunning announcement Nov. 4 from the Saudi capital
that he was resigning. Lebanese officials have insisted on the return home of
Hariri from Saudi Arabia amid rumors he is being held against his will. White
House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement Saturday that
Washington calls upon "all states and parties to respect Lebanon's sovereignty,
independence, and constitutional processes." Lebanon's state-run National News
Agency reported Saturday that French President Emmanuel Macron called his
Lebanese counterpart expressing France's commitment to Lebanon's "unity,
sovereignty and independence."
Report: Aoun Mulling 'Complaint to UN' Over
Hariri's Fate
Naharnet/November 11/17/President Michel Aoun could file a complaint to the UN
Security Council if Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned last week from
Riyadh, did not return to Beirut and the circumstances surrounding his stay in
Saudi Arabia are not clarified, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. Aoun
has told the diplomatic delegations he met, that he “would not wait more than a
week to clarify the fate of Hariri before he refers the file to the
international community,” informed sources told the daily. They added “there are
international preparations to assist Lebanon in this endeavor, in an implicit
reference to Russian and other Western preparations.”Baabda circles said that
“Aoun was clear and frank in talks with the International Support Group for
Lebanon (on Friday) and explained the circumstances that accompanied the
resignation. “He was surprised to hear from the prime minister last Saturday
that he can no longer bear the situation and that he will be in Beirut within
two or three days. But since then no contact between the two men was made
whatsoever.”Baabda circles elaborated to say that the President has “expressed
extreme concern over the circumstances of Hariri's stay in Saudi Arabia, he said
“Lebanon awaits for the ISG assistance to secure Hariri's return because what is
happening harms the the dignity of Lebanon and the Lebanese.””Hariri resigned in
a shock announcement broadcast from Riyadh on Saturday as a power struggle
intensified between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which backs Lebanon's Hizbullah.
Aoun Calls on SA to Clarify Delay in Hariri's
Return, Says Beirut Marathon to Run in Solidarity with PM
Naharnet/November 11/17/President Michel Aoun has called on Saudi Arabia to
“clarify the reasons for the delay in Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return to
Lebanon” after his shock announcement last week from Riyadh that he was
resigning and amid reports that he is being held in SA.
Aoun added that “Lebanon does not accept its prime minister to be in a situation
that contradicts the international agreements.”Aoun called on the participants
in the Beirut Marathon that takes place tomorrow to “run under the slogan of the
return of Hariri to Lebanon to confirm solidarity with him and to clarify the
ambiguity surrounding his presence outside the country.”Addressing a delegation
from the Beirut Marathon led by May Khalil, Aoun said: “Lebanon with its people,
politicians and athletes does not accept that its prime minister is in a
situation that contradicts the international agreements and the rules adopted in
relations between countries.”He called on Saudi Arabia whom “Lebanon has
deep-rooted ties of brotherhood and friendship to clarify the reasons that have
so far prevented Hariri's return to Lebanon to be among his people and
supporters.”“The Marathon of Beirut will be a national event tomorrow, in
solidarity with Prime Minister Hariri and with his return to his homeland," he
said. A political crisis has gripped Lebanon and shattered the relative peace
maintained by its coalition government since Hariri's announcement Nov. 4 from
the Saudi capital that he was resigning. Lebanese officials have insisted on the
return home of Hariri from Saudi Arabia amid rumors he is being held against his
will.
Three Suspects Injured in Army Search for Abducted Saudi in Bekaa
Naharnet/November 11/17/The Lebanese army carried out raids in Baalbek in the
Bekaa valley that included an exchange of gunfire in search for a Saudi national
kidnapped a day earlier, media reports said on Saturday. Army members staged
raids in the town of Dar al-Wasaa that escalated into an exchange of fire with
the suspects leaving three injured, reports said. A Saudi man was kidnapped on
Friday in the Keserwan region amid political tensions with Saudi Arabia. LBCI
said that the abductee, Ali Abdul Nabi al-Bashrawi, was kidnapped after dropping
his wife off at their house in Adma on Thursday evening and parked his
Saudi-plate, white BMW at the Tabarja roundabout before being kidnapped at the
hands of unknown individuals from a nearby area. The TV station added that the
captors are demanding $1.5 million in return for goods that he had bought from
them. Quoting probe sources, the TV network said the case is likely linked to
drug trade. The incident came on the same day that Saudi Arabia ordered its
citizens to leave Lebanon immediately amid skyrocketing tensions with Iran and
Hizbullah and warnings to the Lebanese government.
Jreissati Says Probe 'Libelous' Saudi Journalists
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 11/17/Justice Minister Salim Jreissati has
asked the country's prosecutor general to launch an investigation against two
Saudi journalists who appeared on a TV talk show and branded the Lebanese
president and parliament speakers as "terrorists," the National News Agency
reported. Jreissati wrote in a two-page letter Friday to the prosecutor that the
two men, Ibrahim Al Merhi and Adwan al-Ahmari, have engaged in libel against top
officials including President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
The move comes at a time when tensions are high between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia
over last week's resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced from the
Saudi capital Riyadh. Al Merhi and al-Ahmari appeared Thursday night on Kalam
Ennas, one of the most watched weekly TV programs in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s Crisis on Verge of Inevitable Confrontation
Beirut – Caroline Akoum/Asharq
Al-Awsat/November 11/17/
The crisis that Lebanon is witnessing today due to the resignation of Prime
Minister Saad Hariri is unlike any other the country has experienced in its
history. Despite the analysis and debate over his motives, his resignation
speech was clear in stipulating the reasons that prompted him to step down.
“Hezbollah” and its backer Iran are the direct reason for what is happening in
Lebanon, a year after the “settlement” that saw the election of Michel Aoun as
president and appointment of Hariri as premier. So what will happen now, given
that the president has not yet approved the PM’s resignation and the “Hezbollah”
and its allies’ refusal to examine the reasons why Hariri rsigned. The party’s
rivals believe that Lebanon has reached “the point of no return” and that the
main focus should be on disarming it.
Nasrallah’s response
In his reaction to Hariri’s resignation, “Hezbollah” chief Hassan Nasrallah
overlooked, as did others from the party, the causes for his decision. They
instead focused on superficial aspects of his speech, tossing the ball of
finding a solution to the crisis in Aoun’s court and holding Saudi Arabia
accountable. Nasrallah stated that the Lebanese government “had made
achievements and it could have accomplished more had it been allowed to
continue.” He also claimed that the party is “keen on Lebanon’s stability,”
saying that there was no cause for concern.
He also called for preserving security and civil peace in a region that is
boiling with political crises. Mustaqbal Movement MP Ahmed Fatfat slammed
Nasrallah’s speech, labeling it a “declaration of war.”Head of the Mustaqbal
parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora meanwhile said that the “settlement” is
over, explaining that “Hezbollah” and its ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, had
exploited it to make gains at Lebanon’s expense. Hariri chose to step down after
months of attempts to steer Lebanon clear of problems created by “Hezbollah’s”
meddling in the affairs of Arab countries at Iran’s bidding.
“The solution lies in returning to the Taif Accord and constitution and
restoring the authority of the Lebanese state,” he explained. Saudi Arabia's
Minister of State for Gulf affairs, Thamer al-Sabhan had announced earlier this
week that Riyadh will deal with the Lebanese government as one that had declared
war on the kingdom.
He held Hariri’s government responsible for failing to deter “Hezbollah” from
its harmful actions, vowing: “There is someone that will deter it and make it
return to its caves in southern Lebanon.”He urged the Lebanese to become aware
of these dangers and work to avert them before they reach the “point of no
return.”Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir blamed “Hezbollah” for Hariri’s
resignation, “who had had enough and we completely support him in his
decision.”“It was clear that ‘Hezbollah’ was holding him back in every regard
and that the party was implementing Iranian dictates,” he continued.
Aoun’s position
At a time when the majority of political powers in Lebanon believe that the
settlement in the country has collapsed, presidential sources said that it was
too soon to speak of that. Saudi sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hariri had
demanded that political understandings be reached in exchange for blessing
Aoun’s election as president last year. These demands include “Hezbollah’s”
withdrawal from Syria and refraining from carrying out hostile acts in Yemen and
the Arab Gulf and that Hariri and Aoun would work to that end.
None of this materialized however, on the contrary, Lebanon found itself in the
Iranian fold, noted the sources. There was talk of a one-year deadline to
achieve those goals, but none of that happened. “Lebanon did not adhere to its
policy of disassociation, its ministers visited Syria and normalized ties with
the regime. ‘Hezbollah’ was involved in security unrest in Kuwait and launched
ballistic missiles from Yemen,” added the sources. Furthermore, they revealed
that Hariri had informed Riyadh in recent months that his “security guards’
telecommunications equipment twice did not have reception while passing through
certain areas.”The PM had spoken of a plot to assassinate him when he announced
his resignation a week ago.
“Hezbollah” arms
The PM also accused Iran of violating Lebanon and establishing a “state within a
state”, which now has the final say in local affairs. He also pointed to
“Hezbollah” imposing its will through its weapons. The Iranian Foreign Ministry
said that the resignation was the announcement of a “new scenario to create
tensions in Lebanon and the region.”
In wake of these developments, Lebanese Forces media officer Charles Jabbour and
Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs in Beirut Dr. Sami Nader
said that “Hezbollah” and its arms are now the main obstacle in finding any
solution to the crisis. Former deputy Prime Minister and “Hezbollah” supporter
Elie Firzli linked the party’s weapons to Israel. He called on the international
community “to end Israeli occupation before demanding that the party disarm.”He
told Asharq Al-Awsat that returning affairs to normal requires rationality,
asking: “How can we demand that the party be targeted when Israel itself could
not confront it?”
“The arms have been in its possession for years. Today, instead of targeting
them, we should focus on strengthening the state, according to the constitution
and Taif Accord, which would restore calm and ease the need for arms. Once this
is achieved, we can shift discussions towards its weapons.”The Taif Accord can
be “saved” through reappointing Hariri as premier so that the government can
stage the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for May, he explained.
Sunni representation
As Aoun bides his time in calling for parliamentary consultations to name a
prime minister, all sides are convinced that it would be difficult to find a
Sunni figure willing to take Hariri’s position. Head of the Marada Movement MP
Suleiman Franjieh announced that he refuses the appointment of a figure “who
challenges the Sunnis”. Head of the Democratic Gathering MP Walid Jumblat said
that the best solution for a Lebanon’s stability is the current national unity
government. These are views shared by Aoun, whose sources said it was too soon
to talk about a government that does not enjoy “Hezbollah” representation.
Neutral government
Jabbour remarked that it was impossible to form a new government, regardless of
its composition, at this current time. Nader meanwhile stated that the “neutral”
government was needed to complete the preparations for the parliamentary
elections. He warned that Lebanon would be faced with an open political
confrontation if “Hezbollah” is excluded from cabinet. Jabbour told Asharq Al-Awsat
that it was “impossible” to form a government with “Hezbollah” representation
because this issue has “become a red line on the regional and international
scenes.”
The party in turn refuses to be excluded from any cabinet because it will be
therefore kept out of rule. Any attempts otherwise could be confronted with its
weapons, warned Jabbour. Given the above, it appears that Lebanon is headed
towards an open crisis that requires non-traditional solutions. He pointed to
late former Minister Mohammed Shatah’s proposal to wait for the success of the
nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and use it as a framework to tackle
“Hezbollah’s” weapons. The LF official said that Shatah was assassinated in 2013
for making such a demand.
Eyes are now turned to Iran and how it will deal with the developments after
“Hezbollah’s” arms have become part of international and regional affairs.Hilal
Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut,
told AFP that Lebanon does not have a government with Hariri no longer in power.
This therefore entails that “Hezbollah” is not represented in it, which means
that any attack against the party will not be directed against the Lebanese
state.
Months ago, al-Sabhan had called for forming an international coalition against
“Hezbollah” and against simply making due with US sanctions against it. Nader
meanwhile said that the developments “demand more than just a settlement.”
Others should support Hariri’s stance after he had announced that the other camp
had abandoned the settlement and dragged Lebanon in the Iranian axis and imposed
the normalization of ties with the Syrian regime, he explained.
He therefore said that the Lebanon is now open to all political and economic
options. He also did not rule out the possibility that “Hezbollah” would take an
escalatory measure similar to what happened on May 7, 2008, when it took over
Beirut. He did not rule out the chance that the party may also form a one-sided
government, which violates the constitution and reason, and place Lebanon in
total isolation.
Subsequent political crises
Lebanon has witnessed since 2005 numerous political crises, especially due to
the divide between the Hariri and “Hezbollah” camps. Tensions usually culminate
in security unrest through assassinations and armed clashes. Amid the turbulence
in Lebanon, some observers believe that Hariri’s resignation breathes life into
the opposition camp against “Hezbollah”. It could be an opportunity to revive
the “Cedar Revolution” and “March 14 camp,” which was born after the
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005.
This view was expressed by former aide to US President Donald Trump Walid Fares
and March 14 General Secretariat coordinator Fares Soaid. Soaid told Asharq Al-Awsat:
“We should first acknowledge that the settlement that prevented the formation of
a Lebanese opposition collapsed with Hariri’s resignation.”
He did acknowledge that the March 14 alliance that was formed after Rafik
Hariri’s assassination had collapsed, but he did stress that a “national voice
should be formed against Iranian hegemony over Lebanon.”This national initiative
is being prepared and it will bring together figures that oppose “Hezbollah” and
Iran. He revealed that it will be officially announced “soon.”
Is the opposition ready?
Asked if the opposition in Lebanon is able to share Hariri’s stance and confront
“Hezbollah’s” arms, Soaid replied: “In 2005, the Syrian regime was kicked out of
Lebanon at a time when the national will was stronger than the Arab and
international one. Today the situation is reversed. We now need to form a
national will to meet this reawakening.”After its launch, the new initiative
will communicate with all Lebanese factions that share its views in order to
lead Lebanon and the region towards a new phase, he remarked.
Fares, for his part, said during a televised appearance that the Lebanese
opposition should play its role and not wait on the international community.The
court is now in the opposition’s court and it shares the views of the
international community, he noted. It will also enjoy the backing of the United
States if it mobilizes in contrast to the past when it used to voice it
objection to Iran and “Hezbollah’s” arms before then joining the party in
government. He ruled out the possibility of an Israeli war or American military
intervention in Lebanon, adding however that the Lebanese opposition was to
blame for failing to confront “Hezbollah’s” possession of arms.
Way Hariri resigned unacceptable, Aoun tells Saudi diplomat
The Daily Star/November 11/17/BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun Friday told Saudi Arabian Charge d’Affaires Walid
Bukhari that the manner of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation was
“unacceptable,” during a meeting at the presidential palace. Almost a week after
Hariri’s surprise announcement, Aoun reiterated his stance that Hariri should
return to Lebanon.
“The way that Hariri’s resignation took place was unacceptable,” the president
told Bukhari during the meeting, a statement from Baabda Palace said.
The sit-down was part of consultations that Aoun held Friday with Arab
ambassadors to Lebanon, members of the International Support Group for Lebanon
and Papal Charge d’Affaires Ivan Santos.
During his morning meetings, Aoun separately met with United Arab Emirates
Ambassador to Lebanon Hamad Abdullah al-Shamsi, Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon
Nazih al-Naggari, Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon Ali bin Hamad al-Marri, Jordanian
Ambassador in Beirut Nabil Masarweh as well as Syria’s Ambassador to Lebanon Ali
Abdul-Karim.
“The Arab ambassadors expressed their countries’ keenness on the stability and
security of Lebanon and they expressed their appreciation for the efforts that
Aoun has been exerting in order to withstand the political crisis that the
country is currently witnessing,” the statement said.
Hariri announced his resignation in statement made from Saudi Arabia last
Saturday and amid rising tensions between Riyadh and Beirut over Hezbollah’s
role in Lebanon.
The prime minister’s abrupt move caught the political establishment by surprise,
throwing the government into disarray and sparking a flurry of meetings at
Baabda aimed at preserving national unity.
During his meetings Friday, Aoun explained Lebanon’s position regarding the
developments that followed Hariri’s resignation.
Aoun, along with Speaker Nabih Berri and several prominent politicians, has said
that Hariri’s resignation will not be accepted until he returns to the country.
Aoun reiterated his position and expressed concern over Hariri’s situation and
whereabouts while meeting with ambassadors of the International Support Group
for Lebanon members.
The ISG brings together representatives of China, France, Germany, Italy,
Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the European Union
and the Arab League with the U.N. and other organizations. It was established in
2013 to help Lebanon’s state institutions and military deal with the influx of
refugees from neighboring Syria, as well as with security incidents linked to
the Syrian war.
“Aoun affirmed [to the ambassadors] that making a decision regarding this
resignation is [contingent on] Hariri’s return and confirming the reasons that
pushed him to announce this resignation,” the statement said.
The meeting, attended by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, gathered Russian
Ambassador Alexander Zasypkin, U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard, Chinese
Ambassador Wang Kejian, French Ambassador Bruno Foucher, British Ambassador Hugo
Shorter, German Ambassador Martin Huth, Italian Ambassador Massimo Marotti,
acting U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Philippe Lazzarini, European Union
Ambassador Christina Lassen and Arab League Ambassador Abdulrahman al-Solh.
“Aoun expressed his concern regarding [reports] surrounding Hariri’s
circumstances and underscored the need to clarify [the situation]. He reminded
[ISG] member states about the international agreements that govern the
relationship between the countries and immunity that [the agreements] provide to
the state officials,” the statement added.
The ISG members in return expressed their concern regarding the situation in
Lebanon, according to a joint statement issued after the meeting. “They appealed
for Lebanon to continue to be shielded from tensions in the region. In this
regard, they stressed the importance of restoring the vital balance of Lebanon’s
state institutions, essential to Lebanon’s stability,” the statement reported.
The members also called on all sides to continue working and cooperating in
Lebanon’s best interest, and praised Aoun’s call for unity and calmness amid the
current crisis.
“They welcomed the steps taken to contain the political crisis and to safeguard
the country’s unity, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity. In this
regard, the ISG welcome the call of the president for ... Hariri to return to
Lebanon,” the statement said. “In solidarity with Lebanon, ISG members
reaffirmed their commitment to support the country, its leadership and its
people during this difficult time.”
Conflicting Reports About Hariri’s House Arrest
Financial Tribune/November 11/17/L ebanese President Michel Aoun expressed concern on Friday over reports
surrounding the circumstances of Saad Hariri, who resigned as Lebanese prime
minister on Saturday while in Saudi Arabia.
Aoun, in a meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the United
Nations, EU and Arab League in Lebanon, urged clarification of these
circumstances, presidential sources said, Reuters reported.
Two top Lebanese government officials told Reuters on Thursday they believed
Hariri was being held in Saudi Arabia.
A third source, a senior politician close to Hariri, said Saudi Arabia had
ordered him to resign and put him under house arrest. A fourth source familiar
with the situation said Saudi Arabia was controlling and limiting his movement.
Riyadh says Hariri is a free man.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s official news agency SPA quoted a source in the
foreign ministry on Thursday as saying: “Due to the situations in the Republic
of Lebanon, the kingdom advised all citizens not to travel to Lebanon from any
other international destinations,” Al Jazeera reported.
Only hours later, Kuwait and the UAE also urged its nationals to leave Lebanon
immediately.
Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, threatened on Thursday to
refer Hariri’s case to the UN Security Council if the “ambiguity” continues.“The issue of Hariri’s return to the country concerns the sovereign rights of
Lebanon,” Zasypkin said in an interview with Lebanese channel LBC.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told Europe-1 radio “to our
knowledge” Hariri is not being held by Saudi authorities. Hariri is “free in his
movements”, he said on Friday, adding “it is up to him to make his choices”.Le Drian’s office wouldn’t say where France’s information came from.
French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Lebanon, a former French colony,
during a surprise visit on Thursday to Riyadh.
The United States declined to comment on Hariri’s situation. State Department
spokeswoman Heather Nauert told a press briefing on Thursday that Chris Henzel,
the US charge d’affaires in Riyadh, met Saad Hariri on Wednesday, but refused to
comment on where the meeting took place or to elaborate on Hariri’s status.
“We have seen him. In terms of the conditions of him being held or the
conversations between Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Hariri, I would have to
refer you to the government of Saudi Arabia and also to Mr. Hariri’s office.”
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday Saudi Arabia had
declared war on Lebanon and Hezbollah, and said Lebanese Prime Minister Saad
al-Hariri, who resigned in a speech from Riyadh on Saturday, was being detained
in Saudi, Reuters reported.
In a televised address Nasrallah said Hariri’s resignation was an “unprecedented
Saudi intervention” in Lebanese politics and called for Hariri to return to
Lebanon. He said Lebanon’s government was still legitimate and had not resigned.
https://financialtribune.com/articles/international/75896/conflicting-reports-about-hariri-s-house-arrest
Hariri Holds Diplomatic Meetings in Riyadh, Rahi to Visit Saudi Arabia on Monday
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/November 11/17/President Michel Aoun held on Thursday a
series of meetings with politicians and diplomats, in parallel with intensive
activity witnessed in Dar al-Fatwa to discuss the Lebanese crisis resulting from
the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Hariri's office announced that the resigned premier had conducted separate
meetings in Riyadh with the French ambassador to Saudi Arabia, François
Gouyette, the head of the European Union mission in the Kingdom, Michel Serfon
Dorso, US Charge d'Affaires in Riyadh Christopher Henzel and British Ambassador
Simon Collis.
While Aoun is still refusing to deal with Hariri’s resignation as a matter of
fact and to call for consultations to appoint a new prime minister, pending the
return of Hariri to Beirut, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that he is expected to
meet on Friday with Arab and foreign ambassadors and the international group for
the support of Lebanon, to present his stance on the latest developments.
The Lebanese president received on Thursday Maronite Patriarch Bshara al-Raii,
who is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia on Monday, and former Prime Minister
Tammam Salam. The two officials left without giving a statement. He also met
with a delegation of economic organizations headed by former Minister Adnan
Al-Qassar.
Sources told the Central News Agency (CNA) that Raii would spend one day in
Riyadh, before heading to Rome to participate in pontifical councils. They added
that he would meet with Hariri if the latter was in Riyadh. During his meetings
at the Baabda Palace, Aoun underlined the need to preserve national unity,
pointing out that “measures taken to maintain security and financial stability
continue and have achieved their objectives”. He also stressed that the Lebanese
leaders, in all their affiliations, have responded to his calls for calm and the
strengthening of national unity.
Lebanese political crisis: the background
Cristina Abellan Matamoros/euronews/November 10/17
With Lebanon drawn into the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, here is a
look at some of the regional issues which have fed the crisis.
Saad al-Hariri announced on Saturday (November 4) that he was resigning as Prime
Minister of Lebanon. He made the announcement from Saudi Arabia.
Hariri said he believes there is an assassination plot against him and accused
Iran and Hezbollah of sowing disruption in the region.
A Saudi official said that Hariri was in Saudi Arabia for his own safety but
that same day Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said that “Lebanon is too
weak to bear the consequences of Hariri’s resignation and cannot afford to take
sides against Iran.”Hariri’s resignation puts Lebanon into the front line of a regional competition
between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran and could exacerbate sectarian
tensions between Lebanese Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims.
But in order to understand how Lebanon has become entangled in tensions between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, one must understand what is at stake between Iran and the
Saudi kingdom.
Iran’s military buildup
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI),
Iran’s defense budget reached more than 12 billion dollars (10.3 billion euros)
in 2016. Tehran currently disposes of 534 000 active military personnel and a
reserve of 400 000.
Expanding regional network
Iran has worked on expanding its network across the Middle East. The country is
linked to the Shi’a Islamist political party Hezbollah in Lebanon and is also
present in the Gaza strip and in Syria as the main ally of Syrian president
Bachar el-Assad, as well as Yemen and Iraq.
Internal production of military equipment
Iran has its own arms production such as the Zulfiqar tanks and has a
considerable production of long-range, cruise, and ballistic missiles, which is
distributes to its allies (mostly Hezbollah and Houthis).
Thierry Kellner, author of l’histoire de l’Iran (History of Iran) and professor
at Univesite libre de Bruxelles, told the Lebanon-based French paper L’Orient-Le
Jour that “the Iranians are more organized on the military front than the
Saudis” and that “Iranian nationalism is another factor that plays in Tehran’s
favour because the population could rise up” if there was ever any
confrontation.
With important Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria and growing military power,
the new Saudi approach might be to bring conflict to Lebanon to stop Iran from
gaining more power over the region.
“The Saudis appear to have decided that the best way to confront Iran is to
start in Lebanon,” a European diplomat told Reuters.
Riyadh is blaming Hezbollah for the resignation of Hariri accusing it of
“hijacking” Lebanese politics. A Saudi Minister also demanded that the Lebanese
act against the Shi’a party, which is a major political player in Lebanon.
But how things might play in Lebanon are still very uncertain Halim Shebaya, a
political commentator on Lebanon and the Middle East told Euronews.
“For now, nobody knows exactly why Hariri resigned, says Shebaya, what we do
know is that it definitely has something to do with Saudi Arabia’s new approach
to regional affairs.”
What is certain is that Hariri’s resignation means political instability and
deadlock for Lebanon, since the Lebanese president Michel Aoun has not yet
recognised Hariri’s resignation from Riyadh.
“The official position is that Hariri has to come back [to Lebanon] so we can
hear from him directly,” says Shebaya, otherwise there won’t be any movement in
terms of forming a new government.”
Shebaya added that Lebanon is also waiting to see what other sanctions Riyadh
will impose on them since they ordered their citizens to leave Lebanon.However, what is also clear is that “there is no appetite for another civil war
in Lebanon,” said Shebaya.
What will Become of the ‘Second Lebanese
Uprising’?
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq
Al Awsat/November 11/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=60222
For some in ‘occupied’ and ‘subjugated’ Lebanon the nightmare is over; for
others, the country is approaching a regional cliff edge.
In fact, Lebanon is going through a second ‘March 14th’ uprising, this time
against direct Iranian ‘hegemony’ which was always the real thing, compared to
the first uprising against Syria’s ‘security custody’ which was very much a mere
shadow of that real thing.
Many have viewed the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri from a post that
was always a flimsy cover of the above-mentioned hegemony, as a step in the
right direction. If anything, his resignation may have been overdue, since his
only task was rubber-stamping, without questions or reservations.
Those relieved that Hariri had resigned have always felt that he had already
lost a good deal of credibility in both the nationalist and Sunni Muslim camps.
Moreover, he had been too passive in the face of unrelenting effort to discredit
him through pushing him and the military and security forces to accept Iran’s
political and security hegemony, and to turn the Lebanese national army into an
understudy to a sectarian militia led from abroad and serves foreign aims. In
the meantime, there still are certain groups that are happy to be passive, and
continue their futile wait, at the expense of Lebanon’s national identity, Arab
interests, and even its demographic composition. Up till now these groups have
convinced themselves that diplomacy and appeasement are enough to check Iran’s
expansionism fuelled by armed-blackmail already used several times both inside
and outside Lebanon.
However, what Ali Akbar Velayati, the political adviser to ‘The Supreme Guide’,
said in Beirut after meeting with Hariri was the clearest haughty indication
that Lebanon was now under Tehran’s hegemony, extending from southern Iraq to
the Mediterranean across large Syrian territories. The Iranian regime has,
thanks to Hassan Rouhani’s and Javad Zarif’s diplomacy and Mohammed Ali Jafari’s
and Qassen Suleimani’s militias, destroyed national borders drawn in 1920 to
separate the Arabs, and had many ‘Arabists’ dreaming of bringing down. Through
ISIS (and those behind it) and Iran’s sectarian militias, there are no more
borders between Iraq and Syria, or between Syria and Lebanon; thus, Iran now
enjoys a corridor to the Syrian and Lebanese Levantine coasts. What Velayati
said in Lebanon in front of those supposed to be entrusted with the Lebanese
‘state sovereignty’ laid bare the Iranian plans for the whole region, not only a
Lebanon under the military occupation of Hezbollah.
Given the above, one should seriously ask: What next?
On the Lebanese front, I believe Saad Hariri did what he had to do, first as a
patriotic leader who believes in an independent sovereign Lebanon, and second as
Sunni Muslim leader in a time when Sunni Arabs are being only targeted and
marginalised in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. His decision was not an easy one, more
so as many Lebanese politicians – including him – have been for the last two
years warning against political ‘vacuum’, and, subsequently, that any political
way out was less damaging than that ‘vacuum’.
However, since agreeing to elect General Michel Aoun as President and appointing
Hariri as Prime Minister heading a ‘consensus cabinet, including Hezbollah
minister, Lebanon lived the worst scenario of ‘vacuum’ in peaceful manner
without a shot fired in anger! Under Aoun’s Presidency and Hariri’s ‘consensus
cabinet’, Iran’s influence inside Lebanon gained both a cover of legitimacy and
an involuntary acquiescence from representatives of its religious sects.
Furthermore, displaced Syrian refugees became victims of animosity highlighting
the high cost of their stay, and their individual transgressions rather than
holding responsible for the whole phenomenon the Lebanese players – namely,
Hezbollah –, who caused their displacement as a result of their fighting on
Bashar Al-Assad’s side in Syria, without a governmental or popular Lebanese
mandate.
Moreover, pressure was put to make the army’s and security’s ‘defence doctrine’
an almost carbon copy of that of Hezbollah, which is part and parcel of Iran’s
revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Finally, the post of the Prime Minister – reserved
to the Sunnis – was more than once marginalised, and its authority compromised.
A salient example was when Gebran Bassil, the Foreign Minister and the
President’s son – in – law, ignored the cabinet collective responsibility and
the Prime Minister’s position against the Syrian regime, by meeting Walid Al-Mu’allem,
Al-Assad’s foreign Minister in New York!
Thus, in the light of Hezbollah’s monopoly of heavy weapons and its ability to
penetrate the Christian community, through aligning itself with Aoun’s Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) - which provided it with a political and religious
cover reflecting the logic of ‘Alliance of Minorities’- the ‘consensus cabinet’
insured Hezbollah achieved most of its aims. They included securing its
favourite ‘electoral law’ and getting away with its strategy towards the
sensitive Sunni town of Arsal near Lebanon northeast borders with Syria. The
non-existing, or fake, consensus spared Hezbollah the need to use military force
in order to impose its will, and tighten its control of the country.
Saad Hariri’s resignation has, thus, pulled the cover over a sinister situation
that was damaging to him as well as to Lebanon had it continued. The outgoing
Prime Minister has done the right thing, preventing “filling the vacuum with
another vacuum’, throwing the ball into the world community’s court.
Lebanon, at any rate is but one link in the Middle East chain. The resignation
of a Prime Minister who finally decided not to be a cover for a plan for
regional hegemony is certainly an important step in blocking it, however, it is
not enough on its own. It will not bear fruits without a serious willingness to
block and derail this plan from a much higher level. Hariri was subjected to
many criticisms during the past year, but he has now acted courageously. Will he
now be supported by those vocal critics of Tehran’s policies, ambitions, and
plans for hegemony underpinned on its arsenals inside Iran, and its active
militias in several Arab countries? Will the world community react with serious
urgency in dealing with a Middle East nearing boiling point?
And is there a genuine understanding of how dangerous it is to allow
religion-clad extremist ideologies to establish its sway in a highly sensitive
area, where ethnic, religious and sectarian identities intersect, nor far from
the heart of Europe?
In 2005, when the Lebanese people rose against a ‘security custody’ imposed from
across its borders, the world community reacted quickly only to forget them soon
after.
Many fear this might happen again to their ‘Second Uprising’!
Syrian refugees in Lebanon face eviction
Scott Preston/Al Monitor/November 10, 2017
Thousands of Syrian refugees residing in several municipalities across Lebanon
are under threat by eviction campaigns that have ramped up in recent weeks. Aid
workers from several humanitarian organizations say that reports of refugee
evictions have increased in a number of predominantly Christian areas.
Nowhere is the issue more evident than in Haddath, where up to 6,000 individuals
— including 1,800 children — could be at risk of expulsion, Allison Zelkowitz,
the country director of Save the Children Lebanon, told Al-Monitor. Throughout
the municipality, local police are conducting door-to-door investigations,
profiling individuals and issuing eviction notices to Syrian refugees.
Haddath’s mayor, George Aoun, contends that his administration is expelling
displaced Syrians on the basis of illegal employment, unregistered rental
arrangements or the lack of residency permits. “I have the labor law and we are
implementing it word by word,” Aoun announced at a press conference Oct. 26,
referring to a January decree from the Ministry of Labor.
Speaking to Al-Monitor, municipal council member George Haddad said, “Refugees
are asked to leave — each one at a specific time. In some cases certain refugees
were asked to leave a year ago, while others who are now being identified are
given 15 days to leave.”
Mahmoud Youssef, a Syrian who has lived in Haddath for eight years, provides for
his wife and daughter through his work at a grocery store. “Of course
[evictions] are escalating in the last two weeks,” Youssef told Al-Monitor.
"They’re kicking lots of people out and everyone who is working in Haddath —
even the concierges — they are evicting them.”
According to Youssef, the municipal police told him and his family to vacate the
area in spite of his sponsorship agreement with his employer. Subsequently,
Youssef began searching for another home but was unable to find an alternative
before the police returned a week later.
“So they said, ‘Why didn’t you leave? You have to pack your stuff and take your
family and leave now.’ And they started yelling, ‘You have to leave, you have to
pack now. We don’t care [if you didn’t find a house] we’re going to take your
stuff and throw it outside,’ and this kind of stuff. He [police officer] almost
hit me.” Following the incident, Youssef’s wife and child managed to move to
another area of the city.
Refugees who do not live in Haddath have also been issued evacuation notices.
Hassan Tillarni, who came to Haddath four years ago, works at a local
restaurant. “They [police] came for me twice here and the last time they took me
with them and they told me I had to leave. They made me sign an agreement that I
will leave,” he told Al-Monitor, showing a security camera video of police
escorting him out.
“They came twice or three times and the [restaurant] owner told them that he was
trying to find Lebanese [to work for him], but that he has not found any
Lebanese who want to do this job. So he will close the restaurant for one
month,” Tillarni said.
In practice, the municipality may be attempting to evict all Syrians from the
area, regardless of legal status. Ahmad al-Obeid, 16, came to Lebanon six months
ago, after fleeing war in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor. He told Al-Monitor that the
municipal police came to his home and ordered him and his relatives out on short
notice without asking if he was working or inquiring about his residency papers.
“They came here and they told us we have to leave in two days.”
The Lebanese Constitution very ambiguously grants municipalities power to
"protect" the areas under their jurisdiction. This has allowed municipalities to
try to clear their areas of all Syrians on the basis of their ethnicity alone,
alleging the implementation of the constitution.
In addition to Haddath, the Mount Lebanon municipalities of Mansourieh and Joun
are also conducting evictions of refugees, according to the United Nations
refugee agency's communications officer, Lisa Abou Khaled. In addition, the
village of Bcharre posted a notice Oct. 1 stating that the municipality will
deploy police to expel Syrian refugees as of Nov. 15, citing fears of
demographic shifts.
“We haven’t been able to triangulate all the information, but we know so far
that it could be Haddath, Bcharre, Mansourieh, Hazmiyeh, Baabda. So it [affected
area] is quite larger than just Haddath,” George Ghali, the programs manager at
ALEF, a Lebanese human rights organization that monitors the protection of
Syrian refugees, told Al-Monitor.
The pace of evictions has stepped up notably in 2017 amid calls from Lebanese
officials for the country’s 1.5 million refugees to return to Syria. In early
April, the army told up to 11,000 displaced Syrians that they had five days to
leave the area surrounding the Rayak air base. The mass relocation of refugees
was orchestrated by the municipality of Miziara early last month. The expulsion
came in response to the rape and murder of a 20-year-old Lebanese woman by a
Syrian concierge. Following the event, Haddath increased its evictions and
Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil visited the suburb — considered a bastion of
electoral support for his political party, the Free Patriotic Movement — and
praised the municipality’s efforts.
As Haddath began to implement evictions, the minister of interior and
municipalities issued a statement declaring that his office was not affiliated
with the initiative. The statement, however, stopped short of calling for the
cessation of eviction activities. Minister of State for Refugee Affairs Mouin
Merhebi also denounced the policy and the spread of a “racist spirit,” yet no
further actions have been taken by the national government to curb expulsions.
“What happened in Miziara actually accelerated the process [of evictions]
because the government did nothing to prevent the evictions given the
sensitivity of the situation that could have escalated to a public uproar
against Syrian refugees. The municipality just put all the Syrians in trucks and
evicted them from the village. So when other municipal leaders saw this happen
with nobody flinching they were emboldened to follow suit. I don’t think
stakeholders will intervene as aggressively as they used to in the past because
of the current [parliamentary] election season,” Ghali said, adding, “This
year’s new development to the recurrent eviction orders is that municipalities
are no longer deterred.”
Gulf nationals exit Lebanon
Najia Houssary/Arab News/November 2017
BEIRUT: There has been an exodus of Gulf nationals from Lebanon. A Kuwaiti
airliner arrived at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut late Friday
night in order to bring Kuwaiti citizens who are in Lebanon home to Kuwait.
The permanent representative of the National News Agency (NNA) in Lebanon told
Arab News that Beirut airport had witnessed on Thursday night the departure of
Saudi citizens on regularly scheduled Beirut-Riyadh flights.
She also noted that the airlines at the airport had reported many booking
cancelations from passengers who had booked their flights to come to Lebanon
during the coming holiday season.
The exodus comes in response to the call from the foreign ministries of Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to their respective citizens who are in Lebanon to
return to their countries and to avoid travel to Lebanon.
Lebanon is still experiencing the fallout from the resignation of Lebanese Prime
Minister Saad Al-Hariri, announced from Riyadh about a week ago.
Al-Hariri blamed Iran and Hezbollah for his resignation and noted, “We live in
an atmosphere similar to the atmosphere that prevailed before the assassination
of (his father) Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.”
Lebanese President Michel Aoun continued his consultations on Friday with Arab
and foreign ambassadors in the Presidential Palace. Aoun expressed concern over
“the circumstances surrounding the situation of Hariri after announcing his
resignation from abroad” and he pointed to the necessity of its unraveling,
according to a statement from the Presidential Palace.
The statement added that President Aoun had held meetings with Arab ambassadors
in Lebanon, in the presence of Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. The
spokesman at the Palace stated that Aoun told the Saudi Charge d’Affaires Walid
Al-Bukhari that the circumstances of Al-Hariri’s resignation were
“unacceptable,” and he demanded the return of the Lebanese prime minister to
Beirut.
Arab diplomatic sources told Arab News that the Saudi charge d’affaires “assured
Aoun the commitment of Saudi Arabia to the safety and security of Lebanon, and
when Aoun raised, in the presence of Bassil, the ambiguity surrounding the
situation of Al-Hariri, Al-Bukhari replied that it was possible to communicate
with Al-Hariri directly or to send the foreign minister to the Kingdom to meet
him.”
The sources told Arab News: “Prime Minister Hariri announced his position, and
according to their information, we need to look into the problem and tackle it,
and then Al-Hariri would return to Lebanon. But if he returned now, who would
guarantee his safety? Taking into consideration the fact that the Kingdom did
not dictate an option forcing him to stay in the Kingdom or leave it, he is free
in his movements.”The sources added that “questioning the situation of Al-Hariri and focusing on
protocol issues is not right. Are we in Tora Bora? What’s the logic?”
After visiting Aoun, the ambassadors of the International Support Group (ISG)
for Lebanon stressed in a statement read by UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
Philippe Lazzarini the importance of “keeping Lebanon protected from tensions in
the region,” and the importance of “restoring the vital balance of Lebanon’s
state institutions, which are essential to the country’s stability.” They
welcomed the “steps taken to contain the political crisis and protect the
country, its stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” The ambassadors
reiterated their “commitment to support the country, its leadership, and its
people during this difficult time.”
On the international front, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in a statement
on Friday, warned other countries against using Lebanon for “proxy conflicts.”
Tillerson also called Al-Hariri a “strong partner” of the US.
“The US cautions against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as
a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that
country,” Tillerson said.
France’s Foreign Ministry on Friday noted comments made earlier by the French
minister, suggesting that Al-Hariri may not be free and urging that he continue
to play his rightful role in the country, according to Reuters.
Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told Europe 1 Radio that as far as France
was aware, Al-Hariri “was free in his movements” and that it was “important he
made his own choices.”From the UN, AP reported that the Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said it was
essential that peace be preserved in Lebanon, warning that a new conflict could
have “devastating consequences” in the region.
In Germany, Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel expressed his concerns to his Saudi
counterpart, Adel Al-Jubeir, about the possibility of the destabilization of
Lebanon.
A spokeswoman for the German Foreign Ministry said in a press conference on
Friday that Gabriel told Al-Jubeir in a phone call that he believed the
“progressive steps achieved under the leadership of Al-Hariri should not be
endangered.”However, the spokeswoman added, “Berlin has no evidence that Al-Hariri has been
detained against his will.”
She added: “Germany shares the Saudi concerns about Iranian meddling in Yemen
and the support of Tehran for Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah.”
Sa'ad Hariri: The accidental politician
Omar Shariff, Deputy Editor, GCC & Middle East/Gulf News/November 10, 2017
With his surprise resignation as the prime minister of Lebanon, the son of slain
former premier Rafik has thrown a curve at extremists in the region
Out of nowhere, on November 4, Lebanon’s prime minister Sa’ad Hariri took the
region by storm by announcing his resignation. The announcement came not from
his office in Beirut, but from his residence in Riyadh. He said he believed
there was an assassination plot against him and accused Iran and its Lebanese
proxy Hezbollah of destroying the region’s stability.
Under Lebanon’s confessional political set up, the president of the country is,
by law, a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni, and the speaker of
parliament a Shiite. And the Hariri family is by far the biggest pillar of Sunni
politics in Lebanon. The Future Movement, which was set up by Sa’ad’s
assassinated father Rafik Hariri, and which Sa’ad has headed since 2005, is
essentially the political voice of Sunnis of Lebanon.
Sa’ad became prime minister of Lebanon last year in a political deal that made
the Hezbollah-allied Maronite Christian politician Michel Aoun President. The
coalition government that resulted had nearly all of Lebanon’s political blocs
as members, including Hezbollah.
The Hariris have always had deep ties with Saudi Arabia, which has provided
tremendous political and financial support to Lebanon for a long time. Like his
father before him, Sa’ad holds both Lebanese and Saudi citizenship.
Rafik had first arrived in Saudi Arabia in 1965. By the late 1970s, he was an
immensely wealthy businessman. He used much of his own money to fund
philanthropic projects in his homeland, which gained him a lot of goodwill —
enough for him to enter Lebanese politics. The 1990 Taif Accords — which were
mediated by Saudi Arabia and took place in the Saudi city of Taif — marked the
end of the 15-year-long Lebanese civil war. Rafik had played a key role in the
lead-up to the talks. He would go on to become prime minister of Lebanon five
times and earn the nickname “Mr Lebanon”. It was after his brutal death in a
massive car bomb explosion in Beirut in 2005 — for which Hezbollah operatives
are being tried in absentia — that his younger son Sa’ad was thrust into the
whirlpool of Lebanese politics.
Like some other scions of powerful political dynasties — India’s former prime
minister Rajiv Gandhi comes to mind — Sa’ad was initially reluctant to enter
politics. Earlier, Sa’ad had helped manage his father’s multibillion dollar
businesses. He was born in Riyadh in 1970; his mother was Rafik’s first wife,
Iraqi Nida Bustani. He graduated in 1992 from McDonough School of Business at
Georgetown University in Washington and joined his father’s vast business
empire. According to Forbes, Sa’ad is currently worth $1.1 billion (Dh4.04
billion).
After his father’s death, Sa’ad, instead of taking over the reins of the
Lebanese premiership himself, backed seasoned politician and close friend of his
father’s, Fouad Siniora, to become prime minister. Siniora was at the helm from
July 2005 to November 2009, following which, Sa’ad became the prime minister of
Lebanon for the first time.
Before that, Sa’ad’s first political successes came in the form of securing a
financial aid package from the United States in 2007, largely as a result of his
lobbying effort and his mediation that helped in the formation of a unity
government in 2008.
The March 14 Coalition — named as such to commemorate the day massive crowds
gathered in Beirut to demand the end of the Syrian regime’s suffocating,
decades-long presence in Lebanon, following the assassination of Rafik — won the
elections held in June 2009. Hariri became prime minister-designate. The then
president Michel Sulaiman asked him to form a new government — no easy task in a
system as complex as that of Lebanon. Hariri, after trying for many weeks, gave
up and said that he would step down from his prime minister-designate post. But
Sulaiman persuaded him to try again and, in November, Hariri finally announced
the formation of a unity government. He also became prime minister.
Meanwhile, as the international tribunal investigating the assassination of
Rafik gathered steam, tensions arose over Lebanon’s participation in the
tribunal, with the March 14 coalition engaged in a tussle with Hezbollah over
the issue. In 2011, the resignation of 11 Hezbollah MPs forced the collapse of
the unity government, and Hariri became caretaker prime minister, handing over
the reins to Najeeb Mikati later. Mikati had the support of Hezbollah. Hariri
adopted a principled stance and refused to be part of any government that was
dominated by Hezbollah. The eventual government had no ministers from the March
14 coalition.
Also in 2011, when Syria’s brutal conflict began, Hariri — like most Sunnis in
Lebanon — came out clearly against his old nemesis, the dictatorship of Syrian
President Bashar Al Assad, which Sa’ad also blamed for the assassination of his
father. In 2012, the Syrian regime issued an “arrest warrant” against Sa’ad for
his alleged support for Syrian rebels. Hariri promptly responded by branding Al
Assad a “monster”. Sensing imminent danger from the Syrian regime or its allies
in Lebanon, he moved to Paris along with his wife and three children in 2011. He
only returned in 2014.
The period that followed was one of political paralysis in Lebanon, with the
country being unable to agree on electing a president. Following several rounds
of deliberations, a deal was finally struck under which long-time aspirant Aoun
was elected President, and he signed a decree appointing Hariri as prime
minister. Thus, Hariri became premier for the second time on December 18, 2016.
But less than a year later, he was to announce his surprise resignation.
Agreement Poll
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11-12/17
ISIS regains full control of Syria border town Albu Kamal:
monitor
AFP/Al Arabiya English/November 11/17 /The ISIS group fully recaptured the
Syrian border town of Albu Kamal on Saturday, a monitor said, after a tough
fightback for its last urban bastion against pro-regime forces. “ISIS fully
recaptured Albu Kamal, and regime forces and allied militia are now between one
to two kilometres from the city limits,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Iraqi interior minister says 41 Iranians
arrested after crossing borders
Al Arabiya English/November 11/17 /The Iraqi Minister of Interior, Qasim al-Araji,
said that local authorities have arrested 41 interiors who illegally crossed the
country’s borders, reported Anadolu Agency on Saturday. The statement said that
the Ministry of Interior (MOI) warned all residents in Iraq from engaging in
political activities which may negatively impact the country’s external
relations. The MOI also stressed that necessary legal action must be taken
against violators – deportation if necessary. Recently, Iranian police said that
nearly two million and 200,000 visitors have passed through the Iranian border
for Iraq to participate in the annual commemoration fourty days after the
anniversary of Imam Hussain’s death.
Jailed British-Iranian woman 'suicidal' in Iranian prison
MEE/A fellow inmate
with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe says her 'hair was falling out' as she faced
brutal treatment in Iranian custody
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, the imprisoned British-Iranian woman at the heart of
a diplomatic crisis involving UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, was left
suicidal following her treatment at the hands of the Islamic Republic, according
to newly released interviews. Former inmates of the prison complex where
Zaghari-Ratcliffe is being held on charges of being a foreign spy described to
the Times newspaper in London the ordeal she faced as she suffered brutal
interrogation from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and eight months
in solitary confinement. "Nazanin was very upset," said Homa Hoodfar, a
Canadian-American who in June spent two days in jail with Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
"Her interrogators had promised if she signed these papers she would be able to
get out and be with her baby. Desperate, she went ahead and signed, but they
wouldn’t let her out."Hoodfar said that Zaghari-Ratcliffe had cried
uncontrollably about being seperated from her two-year old daughter Gabriella.
We've all become accustomed to Boris Johnson's foot-in-mouth syndrome, but as
foreign secretary his words matter
Wes Streeting, Labour MP
"Her hair was falling out, huge clumps of it covered our blankets," she said.
"She was crying about her daughter, who was going to celebrate her second
birthday. She just talked about her little girl and cried."Zaghari-Ratcliffe,
who was arrested while on holiday in Iran last April, worked in London for the
Thompson Reuters Foundation. Although she has no involvement in the journalistic
wing of the organisation, Foreign Secretary Johnson mistakenly told a meeting of
the UK parliament's foreign affairs select committee that she had been teaching
journalism in Iran. This mistake has led to Zaghari-Ratcliffe facing potentially
an extra five years in prison on accusations of "propaganda against the regime"
and has provoked numerous calls for Johnson to be sacked. Her husband, Richard
Ratcliffe, said the Iranians had taken Johnson's error at face value. "There is
a way in which the foreign secretary is responsible which he was not two weeks
ago," he said, according to the Times.
"He was cited in Iranian media coverage of Nazanin. They are taking his words."
Months in solitary
Following her arrest, Zaghari-Ratcliffe was first held for a month in isolation
in Kerman province, in the south of Iran. The only people permitted to see her
were interrogators. She was then kept for a further seven months in isolation in
Evin prison, in a cell where the light was never turned off. On Friday, British
diplomats reportedly increased their efforts to raise support for
Zaghari-Ratcliffe. According to the Evening Standard in London, Ambassador
Nicholas Hopton said the UK had "no doubt" that Zaghari-Ratcliffe had been
holiday on when she was arrested. Although she is being kept in better
conditions now, the Johnson incident has her facing a new trial on new charges.
Opposition politicians said Johnson's position was untenable. "We've all become
accustomed to Boris Johnson's foot-in-mouth syndrome, but as foreign secretary
his words matter," said Labour MP Wes Streeting, speaking to the UK's Sun
newspaper. "This isn't his first gaffe in recent months, but it looks as though
his careless attitude will result in a longer prison sentence for an innocent
British national. "This is intolerable. He should be sacked." Zaghari-Ratcliffe
used to work in London for the BBC, which Iran says is seeking to topple the
Islamic theocracy. Iran refuses to recognise dual nationals and denies them
access to consular assistance.
Israel Downs Syrian Spy Drone over Golan Heights
Asharq Al-Awsat/November
11/17/Israel’s military said it had shot down a Russian-made Syrian drone
carrying out a reconnaissance mission over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on
Saturday. The drone was intercepted by a Patriot missile in the demilitarized
zone between the Israeli- and Syrian-controlled parts of the Golan, a military
spokeswoman said in a statement. The zone has separated Israeli and Syrian
forces since the ceasefire deal that followed their 1973 war. "It was a
reconnaissance UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and not an attack UAV and we are
checking whether there is any connection to Iran and Hezbollah," military
spokesman, Lieutenant-Colonel Jonathan Conricus, told Reuters. "The State of
Israel regards with utmost seriousness any violation of its sovereignty and will
respond with force to any provocation," Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor
Lieberman said in a statement."We will not allow the consolidation of a Shi’ite
axis in Syria" as a base for operations against Israel, he added, referring to
the presence of Syrian regime allies Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah in the
war-torn neighboring country.
Kremlin: Trump, Putin Agree there is No Military
Solution in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 11/17/Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President
Donald Trump agreed a joint statement on Syria on Saturday that said they would
continue joint efforts in fighting ISIS until it is defeated and that there was
"no military solution" for the war in Syria, the Kremlin said. The Kremlin said
the conversation between Trump and Putin took place on the sidelines of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the Vietnamese resort of
Danang. It said the statement on Syria was coordinated by Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson especially for
the meeting in Danang. The White House did not immediately respond to questions
about the Kremlin announcement. Putin and Trump confirmed their commitment to
Syria's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and called on all
parties to the Syrian conflict to take an active part in the UN-led peace talks
in Geneva, the Kremlin said. Moscow and Washington agree there is no military
solution to the Syrian conflict, according to the text of the joint statement
published on the Kremlin's website. Television pictures from Danang showed Putin
and Trump chatting - apparently amicably - as they walked to the position where
the traditional APEC summit photo was being taken at a viewpoint looking over
the South China Sea. Earlier pictures from the meeting show Trump walking up to
Putin as he sits at the summit table and patting him on the back. The two lean
in to speak to each other and clasp each other briefly as they exchange a few
words. Although the White House had said no official meeting was planned, the
two also shook hands at a dinner on Friday evening.
Iraq Launches Offensive to Recapture Last Town
under ISIS Control
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 11/17/Iraqi forces launched an offensive on Saturday to
capture Rawa, the last remaining town under ISIS control, leaving the extremist
organization’s self-proclaimed “caliphate” on the verge of complete defeat. Two
Iraqi infantry divisions and tribal forces are participating in the offensive to
recapture Rawa and its surrounding areas along the border with Syria, the Joint
Operations Command said in a statement. The defeat of militants in Rawa would
mark the end of ISIS’ era of territorial rule over the so-called caliphate that
it proclaimed in 2014 across vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. Syrian forces
declared victory over the militants on Thursday, after seizing the last
substantial town on the border with Iraq. The forces and their allies were still
fighting ISIS in desert areas near Albu Kamal, the last town the militant group
had held in Syria. Last week, Iraqi forces recaptured the larger town of al-Qaim,
in what Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called "record time", leaving just a few
small pockets of land in ISIS hands, including Rawa and surrounding scraps of
desert. The region has been known as a hotbed of insurgency and smuggling since
the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, long before the arrival of ISIS in 2014.
Libyan Presidential Council Seizes Control of
West as Sewehli Escalates Anti-Haftar Rhetoric
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 11/17/The Libyan Presidential Council of the National
Accord government imposed its control of the western part of the country after
completely capturing the region of Warshefana.The achievement coincided with a
war of words by High Council of the State chairman Abdulrahman Sewehli against
National Army commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The capture of Warshefana,
which lies 30 kms south of Tripoli, blocks all attempts of infiltration to the
capital. It was seized after ten days of fierce battles between the forces of
the commander of the western region Osama al-Juwaili and the “Tripoli Rebels”
brigade, which is loyal to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, against the National
Army. Sarraj voiced on Thursday night his satisfaction with the “cleansing of
Warshefana from criminals”, warning “outlaws and mercenaries” that they will not
no longer be allowed in the region. Addressing the people in wake of his forces’
victory, he declared: “The locals, who abandoned their homes and region due to
the spread of crime, will be able to return once again.”He revealed that
security forces, the police and state institutions have been ordered to resume
their duties in there. Warshefana is the second region, after Sabratha, that has
been seized by Sarraj’s forces. Sabratha was liberated on October 7. These two
developments appear as a clear challenge to vows he had made to Haftar as he
inches close to Tripoli. Army spokesman Ahmed al-Masmari had pledged to liberate
Tripoli from “militias in order to end the state of division should political
dialogue fail.” Haftar had on October 14 declared before his forces that the
army now controls 1.73 million kms of Libyan territory and 30,000 kms only
remain. His rivals have however questioned the claims, saying that several
regions are not loyal to the National Army. Meanwhile, Sewehli seemed to have
abandoned his previous caution, launching a critical verbal attack against
Haftar, speaking on more than one occasion of “terrible war crimes” being
committed in the areas under the field marshal’s control in eastern Libya. In a
letter to the foreign minister in the National Accord government, he protested
against Libyan Ambassador to the United Nations Elmahdi Elmajerbi’s “deliberate
failure” to mention the Derna and Abyar crimes before the Security Council on
Wednesday. “This is a disregard to the lives of dozens of women, children and
men that were lost in these crimes,” he said in his letter to FM Mohammed Taher
al-Siala. Elmajerbi’s speech before the Security Council “did not rise to the
expectations of our people, who have been waiting for accountability in
systematic war crimes and human rights violations that have been committed in
the past months.”Furthermore, the UN ambassador claimed that Libyan judicial and
security institutions were capable of imposing the law “and this totally
untrue,” continued Elmajerbi.
Bahrain oil pipeline fire was act of sabotage - Interior
Ministry
Reuters//November 11/17/An explosion which caused a fire at an oil pipeline in
Bahrain on Friday was caused by sabotage, the Interior Ministry said in a
statement on Saturday. “The incident was an act of sabotage and a dangerous act
of terrorism aimed at harming the higher interests of the nation and the safety
of the people,” the ministry said on its official Twitter account.State-run
Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) closed the flow of oil to the stricken
pipeline, the civil defense added in the statement, published on the interior
ministry's website. Residents close to the incident near Buri village, some 15
kilometers (10 miles) from the capital Manama, were being evacuated to a safe
shelter, the statement added. A Reuters witness said there was a large fire
which burst the pipeline. Bahrain relies on the Abu Safa oilfield for the
majority of its oil. It shares the field with Saudi Arabia.
Oil to Bahrain is transported via the 55 km A-B pipeline which has a capacity of
230,000 barrels per day (bpd). A new 350,000-barrels per day oil pipeline
between the two countries will be completed next year and will serve the planned
expansion of Bahrain’s refinery capacity. Arabian Light crude oil will flow from
Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq plant via the 115-km new pipeline, 73 km of which will run
overland and the rest under the Gulf.
Egyptian forces destroy arms smugglers’ vehicles on Libya border
Reuters/November 11/17/Egyptian military jets destroyed 10 vehicles carrying
weapons, ammunition and smuggled goods near the country’s western desert border
with Libya, the army said on Saturday. Egypt’s porous border with Libya has long
been a headache for security forces as weapons flow across the frontier, but an
attack on police last month claimed by a new militant group has highlighted the
security challenges in the western desert. “The air force dealt with them and
destroyed them completely and killed all the elements inside,” the army
statement said, without giving a date of the operation.
Egypt’s security forces are battling a stubborn ISIS insurgency in the northern
Sinai region, where militants have killed hundreds of police and troops since
2014 when attacks there started to increase.
Egypt FM to Tour Gulf in Push for Political Solution
Agence France Presse//Naharnet/November 11/17/Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh
Shoukry will embark on a Gulf tour to push for a political solution as tensions
rise between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, his ministry said
Saturday.
Shoukry, whose government is closely allied with Saudi Arabia, will carry a
message from President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the leaders of Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman as well as Jordan during his three-day visit starting
Sunday, it said in a statement. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has accused
Saudi Arabia of declaring war and detaining Lebanon's prime minister Saad
Hariri, who resigned last week in a statement from Riyadh citing Iran's "grip"
on Lebanon. Saudi Arabia, which in turn accused Hezbollah and Iran of declaring
war against the kingdom, urged its citizens to leave Lebanon. Shoukry "will
affirm Egypt's firm position on the need to preserve Arab unity," the ministry
statement said. He will also "affirm Egypt's policy... that pushes for political
solutions to crises and the need to spare the region any more turmoil and
polarisation."Egypt, which has the most powerful Arab army and has depended on
Saudi Arabia for aid, has supported the Gulf country against its regional
arch-rival, Iran. But it has displayed little enthusiasm for a Saudi-led
coalition's devastating war in Yemen against Iran-backed Huthi rebels. Cairo has
backed the coalition with only a few naval vessels after having pledged to send
ground troops if needed. Sisi told a press conference on Thursday that Egypt
fully supported Gulf countries, whose security he called a "red line."But he
also urged caution. "I am not for war. We have had our experience with war," he
said. "The region faces enough turmoil already. We should approach (the
tensions) extremely cautiously," he added.
Trade Ministers Agree Asia-Pacific Trade Pact
without US
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 11/17/Ministers from 11 Asia-Pacific
countries agreed Saturday to press ahead with a major trade deal without the
United States, as the world's largest economy seeks to go it alone under
President Donald Trump's "America First" policy. Trump pulled his country from
the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) at the start of the year, dismaying allies
and casting into doubt an agreement heralded for tying lower tariffs to strong
environmental and labour protections. He has been something of a lone
protectionist voice at the APEC summit in the Vietnamese city of Danang where
world leaders, including China's Xi Jinping, have been keen to promote the
virtues of free trade and multilateral deals. In a joint statement Saturday
morning, the remaining countries -- dubbed the TPP-11 -- said they had "agreed
on the core elements" of a deal at the sidelines of the APEC summit in the
Vietnamese city of Danang, after days of stalled talks raised fears it could
collapse altogether. The ministers said further talks would be needed to reach a
full consensus before inking the deal, which now carries an even longer official
name -- the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP). Japan's lead negotiator Toshimitsu Motegi said the
remaining members would still welcome the United States back into their pact.
"This time all the 11 countries are on board and this would send out a very
strong positive message to the United States and other Asia Pacific countries in
the region," he said.Francois-Philippe Champagne, Canada's trade minister,
described the breakthrough in a tweet as "big progress".
Canada had held out to maintain environmental and labour protections linked to
freer markets in the deal. Those elements were thrown into jeopardy by America's
sudden withdrawal from the deal earlier this year. Canada had dug in over those
progressive clauses. But they are much less attractive to countries like
Vietnam, Malaysia, Chile and Peru now that the carrot of access to the huge US
market has been pulled.
- Upended consensus -Trump's election has upended years of American-led moves to
open up global trade. The US president is among leaders attending the APEC
summit in Danang and on Friday he ladled out more of his trademark "America
First" rhetoric.
In a strident address he said his country will "no longer tolerate" unfair
trade, closed markets and intellectual property theft. "We are not going to let
the United States be taken advantage of any more," he added, taking a swipe at
multilateral trade deals.
Shortly after, China's Xi offered a starkly different vision, casting his
country as the new global leader for free trade. Beijing is not included in the
TPP, a deal initially driven through by the former US administration as a
counterweight to surging Chinese power in Asia. China has since sought to fill
the free trade gap left by the United States, even if much of its own market
remains protected.
Japan, the world's third largest economy, has been particularly active in
pushing for a swift consensus on TPP, fearful that delays could lead to the
collapse of the pact after years of negotiations and hand more regional
influence to China.
But Canada has pushed back against a quick fix.
"This is about setting the terms of trade for generations," a Canadian
delegation source told AFP. Analysts say the provisional deal reached in Danang
will breath new life into global free trade deals at a time when the United
States is turning its back on them.
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, told AFP that even
without the US, TPP-11 is "the most important trade agreement signed in the last
20 years". "Companies had largely given up on the TPP after the withdrawal of
the United States," she said. "Now firms will need to scramble to figure out how
the agreement matters to their business."At the APEC summit on Saturday Trump
faces a long day of meetings with world leaders who are all pushing for more
open trade.
As well as Xi, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Japan's Shinzo Abe and Canada's Justin
Trudeau are among those attending. The original TPP deal was once described by
the US as a "gold standard" for all free trade agreements because it went far
beyond just cutting tariffs. It included removing a slew of non-tariff
restrictions and required members to comply with a high level of regulatory
standards in areas like labour law, environmental protection, intellectual
property and government procurement.
Without the US, TPP-11 only represents 13.5 percent of the global economy but
the remaining countries are scrambling to avoid the deal's collapse, especially
given the increasingly protectionist winds sweeping through the United States
and Europe.
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on November
11-12/17
A Month of Islam and Multiculturalism in France: October 2017
"We are still in a state of war."
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 11/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=60224
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11345/france-islam-multiculturalism-october
Article 57 of the French Civil Code states that the name chosen by parents must
be in "the best interests of the child." If the public prosecutor thinks the
name "Jihad" is contrary to the law, he can ask a judge to order the name to be
changed. If the parents are unable or unwilling to choose a new name, the judge
has the right to choose a name.
1,900 French jihadists fighting with the Islamic State, as many as one-fifth
have received as much as €500,000 ($580,000) in social welfare payments from the
French state, according to Le Figaro.
Henda Ayari, in an interview with Le Parisien, gave detailed public testimony
accusing Tariq Ramadan of sexually assaulting her in Paris. She said that
Ramadan believes that "either you wear a veil or you get raped."
October 1. A 29-year-old illegal immigrant from Tunisia stabbed two women to
death at the central train station in Marseille. Witnesses heard the assailant
shout "Allahu Akbar" as he lunged at the women with a 20-centimetre (eight-inch)
knife before threatening soldiers, who shot him dead. The man, identified as
Ahmed Hanachi, was using seven different identities and had a long criminal
history. He had been arrested in Lyon for shoplifting just days before the
attack, but those charges were dropped due to a lack evidence. He was released,
despite not having the documents needed to live in France. Why he was never
deported remains unclear.
October 2. Five people were arrested in Paris after police found four makeshift
bombs at a building in the 16th arrondissement, one of the city's most exclusive
neighborhoods. Police said there was no one living in the apartment block who
might be considered a target for jihadists. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb
surmised that the bomb was simply meant to create fear: "Blowing up a building
in a posh neighborhood shows that no one is safe...that it could happen anywhere
in France." He added: "This shows that the level of the threat in France is
extremely high...yes, even if the Islamic State has suffered military setbacks,
we are still in a state of war."
October 2. The trial began of Abdelkader Merah, the 35-year-old brother of
Mohamed Merah. In March 2012, Mohamed had gone on a nine-day shooting spree in
southern France, killing three soldiers and gunning down a teacher and three
children at a Jewish school before being shot dead by police. Abdelkader stands
accused of "knowingly" helping to facilitate the "preparation" of the attack, in
particular by stealing the scooter used for the three separate shootings. He
appeared alongside 34-year-old Fettah Malki, accused of giving Mohamed Merah a
bulletproof jacket, an Uzi submachine gun and the ammunition he unloaded on his
victims. Abdelkader Merah faces a possible life sentence while Malki could get
20 years in prison.
October 5. Six gas canisters attached to a "crude detonator device" were found
under several trucks at a cement company in Paris. The trucks, parked in the
French capital's northeastern 19th arrondissement, belonged to Franco-Swiss
cement company Lafarge-Holcim. Lafarge is being investigated over claims that it
paid taxes to the Islamic State and other armed groups in Syria to keep a plant
running in a war zone. The company admitted that it resorted to "unacceptable
measures" to continue operations at a now-closed cement factory in northern
Syria in 2013 and 2014, after most French groups had quit the war-torn country.
October 6. A French woman who travelled three times to Syria in support of her
jihadist son was sentenced to 10 years in prison for being part of a terrorist
conspiracy. Christine Rivière, 51, was sentenced for her "unfailing commitment"
to jihad and for helping a number of young women travel to Syria to marry
jihadists, including her son, Tyler Vilus. Rivière, a Muslim convert who was
nicknamed "Mama Jihad," said of her son: "I didn't want to push him to die a
martyr, but that could happen. Then he would be in heaven, near Allah."
October 6. French prosecutors charged three men in connection with a makeshift
explosive device made of gas canisters, placed inside an apartment block in
western Paris. Amine A, his cousin Sami B, and Aymen B., were charged with
"attempted murder in an organized group in connection with a terrorist
enterprise" and placed in pre-trial detention. All three were arrested on
October 2, two days after the device was found in the exclusive 16th
arrondissement. Amine A., 30, and Aymen B., 29, are both on the terror watch
list.
October 9. French police and intelligence services are surveilling around 15,000
jihadists living on French soil, according to Le Journal du Dimanche. Of these,
some 4,000 are at "the top of the spectrum" and most likely to carry out an
attack.
October 10. President Emmanuelle Macron announced a plan to open immigration
offices in Niger and Chad to identify persons eligible for asylum on lists
provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and bring
them directly to France. The stated aim is to "better prevent an influx of
economic migrants" who are not eligible for asylum. In all, France will take in
10,000 people, not only from Niger and Chad, but also from Jordan, Lebanon and
Turkey, by October 2019.
October 11. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb announced the dismissal of the
central government's top representative in the southern Rhône region, after a
report criticized "errors of judgement" and "serious faults" in handling
foreigners whose papers are not in order. The report was commissioned after
29-year-old Tunisian Ahmed Hanachi stabbed two women to death at the central
train station in Marseille on October 1.
October 11. A 20-year-old woman was arrested in Rouen on suspicion that she may
have played a role in a jihadist attack on a church in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray.
On July 26, 2016, two jihadists had broken into the church and murdered Father
Jacques Hamel while he was celebrating mass. While leaving the church, they were
shot dead by the police. A few hours later, the Islamic State claimed
responsibility for the attack. Police say that shortly before the attack, the
woman had been in contact with one of the jihadists.
October 12. A French intelligence agent accidentally sent a text message to the
mobile phone of a jihadist, inadvertently warning him that he was under
surveillance and being monitored, according to M6 television. The target, a
"proselytizing Islamist" living in Paris, responded by directly calling the
agent and informing him of his mistake.
October 12. The interior ministry announced that France will maintain border
checks with its European neighbors until April 30, 2018, because of "persistent"
terror threats. The 1985 Schengen Agreement ended passport checks and other
protective measures on borders, but after the jihadist attacks in Paris in
November 2015, France resumed them.
France recently announced that it will maintain border checks with its European
neighbors until April 30, 2018, because of "persistent" terror threats. France
resumed passport checks and other protective measures on borders after the
November 2015 jihadist attacks in Paris. Pictured: French border and customs
police control vehicles at the France-Italy border. (Photo by Murielle Gander
Cransac/Getty Images)
October 15. A groundbreaking ceremony was held in Strasbourg to expand the Eyüp
Sultan Mosque. The 32 million euro ($37 million) project will make the mosque
one of the biggest in Europe. The 15-acre site will include a school, a library,
conference rooms, restaurants and boutiques, as well as a prayer room for up to
3,000 worshippers. The mosque, which will be redesigned according to Ottoman
architecture, will have 28 domes and 44-meter-high (145-foot) minarets. Local
officials say the mosque will contribute to the religious, architectural and
cultural diversity of Strasbourg.
October 16. President Emmanuel Macron pledged to deport illegal immigrants who
commit crimes in France. He said that even without new legislation, "we can take
tougher measures" and expel illegal immigrants if they commit a crime, "whatever
it may be." He added: "We are not taking all the steps that should be taken.
Well, that's going to change." He was speaking after it emerged that a Tunisian
who stabbed two women to death in Marseille had been arrested in Lyon two days
earlier for shoplifting.
October 18. President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a plan to bolster France's
domestic security. A key promise was to hire 10,000 extra police and gendarmes
during the next five years. He also proposed to create a new "daily security
police" (police de la sécurité du quotidian, PSQ) which would be deployed in
"priority neighborhoods from the point of view of insecurity." The PSQ,
community police charged with fighting crime at the local level, will be tested
in about fifteen localities in early 2018. In addition, Macron announced a plan
to combat radicalization and to reform of asylum procedures to bring them in
line with those of Germany. Finally, he promised to speed up the deportations of
illegal immigrants who commit crimes in France. "We don't welcome people well;
our procedures are too long; we don't integrate people properly and neither do
we send enough people back," Macron said. "We should take our fair share, but we
can't just welcome in all the world's poor people."
October 20. Prosecutors in Toulouse launched an investigation after receiving a
report that a couple in nearby Léguevin named their newborn son "Jihad." Article
57 of the French Civil Code states that the name chosen by parents must be in
"the best interests of the child." A justice ministry memo on the topic states
that local registrars must inform the public prosecutor if a name appears to be
contrary to the law. If the public prosecutor thinks the name "Jihad" is
contrary to the law, he can ask a judge to order the name to be changed. If the
parents are unable or unwilling to choose a new name, the judge has the right to
choose a name.
October 20. Henda Ayari, a former Salafist who is now a Muslim feminist
activist, accused prominent Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan of sexually assaulting
her in Paris. Ramadan, a grandson of the founder of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood,
denied her accusations. Some of his supporters criticized Ayari on social media,
insinuating that if the assault did take place, it was her own fault because
Islam forbids an unmarried woman to be alone with a man. Others claimed that
Ramadan is a victim of "international Zionism" and that the charges were
"fabricated by Jews."
October 22. Eight people, including three minors, were charged with "criminal
terrorist conspiracy" for plotting to attack left-wing politicians, migrants and
mosques. An investigation found that the group, led by Logan Alexandre Nisin, a
21-year-old far-right activist based in Provence, planned to buy weapons,
organize paramilitary training exercises and conduct shooting practice.
October 23. An official inquiry cast doubt on allegations that the French police
had abused migrants in the northern port city of Calais. Human Rights Watch had
accused police of a disproportionate use of force against migrants as well as
aid workers when the notorious Calais migrant camp, known as the "jungle," was
dismantled in October 2016. The inquiry said that some abuse was "plausible" but
that there was no proof it had occurred. It added that accusations that police
had used pepper spray against migrants while they were sleeping were "without
foundation." The report found that many of the injuries sustained by migrants
were due to brawls among migrants. "There is no evidence to prove the most
serious allegations made," Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said.
October 24. France issued an arrest warrant for Redouane Sebbar, a 25-year-old
Moroccan man being held in Germany and suspected of helping plan an August 2015
attack on high-speed train traveling from Amsterdam to Paris.
October 26. Of the 1,900 French jihadists fighting with the Islamic State, as
many as one-fifth have received as much as €500,000 ($580,000) in social welfare
payments from the French state, according to Le Figaro.
October 30. Henda Ayari, in an interview with Le Parisien, gave detailed public
testimony accusing Tariq Ramadan of sexually assaulting her in Paris. She said
that Ramadan believes that "either you wear a veil or you get raped." Ramadan
denied the accusations as a "campaign of slander." Since Ayari's original
allegation, two more women have filed sexual assault complaints against Ramadan.
October 30. President Emmanuel Macron formally signed a new counter-terrorism
law that gives prefects, police and security forces wide-ranging powers —
without the need to seek prior approval from a judge — to search homes, place
people under house arrest and close places of worship. The measure also
authorizes police to perform identity checks at French borders. The new law,
adopted by the French Senate on October 18, makes permanent many of the
previously exceptional measures imposed under a two-year-old state of emergency,
which was introduced after the jihadist attacks in Paris in November 2015. That
state of emergency was slated to expire on November 1. Macron said the new law
strikes the right balance between security and respect for civil liberties.
Hardliners countered that it does not go far enough, while human rights groups
complained that it will leave France in a permanent state of emergency.
**Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Iran’s ‘Malign Activities’ and the Need to Put the
Spotlight on its Actions
Dennis Ross/Asharq Al Awsat/November 11/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=60238
President Donald Trump pulled no punches about Iran when he outlined the pillars
that would guide his administration’s policy toward the country. He recounted
Iran’s aggressive, threatening behavior over time and declared that the United
States would counter Iran’s de-stabilizing activities in the region. Left unsaid
was how his administration would do so.
A quick survey of the region validates the need to counter what Iran is doing in
the region. Saad Hariri resigned as Lebanon’s prime minister, citing fears of an
assassination plot against him. In announcing his decision, he accused Iran of
sowing “sedition, devastation and destruction in any place it settles in.” He
charged it with interfering with “the affairs of Arab nations” and referred to
Hezbollah as a “state within a state” in Lebanon.
In Yemen, the Houthis are firing rockets at Saudi cities, including Riyadh, with
increasing frequency—and the rockets are supplied by Iran. Anti-ship rockets are
also being provided by Iran to threaten shipping lanes in the Bab el-Mandeb
straits.
In Iraq, Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Forces, the action-arm of the
Revolutionary Guard, was quick to take advantage of the conflict between the
central government and the Kurdish Regional Government, pushing the Popular
Mobilization Units, who are materially supported and guided by the Iranians, to
force the Peshmerga to retreat from Kirkuk even as they keep the crisis going.
To be sure, the Iranians don’t create these conflicts but are quick to exploit
them, using Shi’ite militia proxies from as far away as Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Nowhere is this more true than in Syria. It is not just that the
Iranians and their proxies have helped to secure the Assad regime; they are
actively now trying to fill the vacuum that is going to be left by the defeat of
ISIS—a defeat that has in the main not been inflicted by them. While the US has
concentrated on defeating ISIS, Iran is focused on the day after and is actively
creating facts on the ground and even working to change the demography by moving
Shi’ites into Sunni-majority areas.
Iran’s reach, especially with Hezbollah, extends everywhere in Syria. Go to the
Golan Heights and one can see, as I just did, the hill-top where the Quds Force
and Hezbollah have established forward observation posts peering into Israel. It
is only a matter of time before they will turn their attention to the border
with Jordan. The Iranians are being quite purposeful in Syria and in time will
control Syria’s border with Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel. Will they do so
with Syria’s Turkish border? If it means cutting a deal with Turkey to prevent
an autonomous Kurdish region, one can bet this, too, will happen.
So the Trump administration is right to speak of Iran’s “malign activities.” The
problem at this point is that the policy seems to be tough in tone and rhetoric
but largely limited to words. True, there are increasing designations for
sanctions of entities tied to the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah. While
sanctions are surely one instrument of policy, their application is largely a
continuation of the Obama approach. Of course, the Obama administration was also
willing to talk to the Iranians. Its engagement policy was designed to gain
international support for pressure on Iran as well as for any agreements that
might emerge from the diplomacy.
President Obama hoped that the nuclear deal, the JCPOA, would not only limit the
Iranian nuclear program and forestall its move toward nuclear weapons, but build
the Iranian stake in good behavior. By re-integrating the Iranians into the
international financial system, the Obama administration reasoned that the
weight and influence of the pragmatists in the Iranian leadership would grow and
Iran would gradually normalize with their neighbors and the world—at least that
was the hope. In the long-run such a possibility might exist; in the short-run,
however, it was always unlikely as Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, was bound
to want to prove that he had not forsaken his “resistance” ideology by
permitting the JCPOA to be concluded; indeed, for Khamenei, by becoming more
aggressive in the region, he could show that his deal with the United States and
the other members of the P5+1 reflected no softening of his world view and the
belief system that underpins Iran.
The challenge from Iran is unmistakable. The policy must be to raise the costs
to the Iranians. The Obama administration was not wrong that there are splits in
the Iranian leadership. In fact, there are those pragmatists around Rouhani who
prefer normalization with the outside world, much as the Iranian public seeks,
not the resistance economy that Khamenei so often calls for but a modern, open
and growing one. Every time they get a chance to vote, Iranians clearly prefer
normalization on the outside and liberalization on the inside.
Like many, I believe that Obama could have preserved the leverage that brought
the Iranians to the negotiating table more effectively during the talks to
produce a better outcome. But if the Trump administration wants to deal with
some of the flaws of the JCPOA—the end of key limitations on enrichment and
reprocessing in 13 years and ongoing ballistic missile testing—it needs to be
sure it has international partners. And, the same is true for dealing with
Iran’s behavior in the region.
Here again the logic should be to raise the costs to the Iranians while leaving
them a way out. That starts with developing an international consensus by
putting the spotlight on what Iran is doing everywhere in the region. Iran is
not about stability but expansion. And, the US must lead, not with words but
with action.
I believe containing Iran in Syria and not permitting the Shi’ite militias to
expand further there is essential for showing the Iranian regime, we will now
impose limits. There is every reason to talk directly with the Iranians and make
clear what we can accept and what we cannot. Certainly, we should do the same
with the Russians, conveying unmistakably that if the expansion continues we
will use our air power to stop the spread of the Shi’ite militias.
Presently, in the Trump administration, there continues to be a debate about how
to counter the Iranians. Some seem prepared to concede Syria to Russia and let
them contain the Iranians while the US does more to counter the Iranians in
Iraq. There are two problems with this approach: first, the Russians have little
incentive to play this role, particularly as long as a low level insurgency
continues in Syria and the Shi’ite militias represent their boots on the ground.
And, second, Iran may have more leverage in Iraq than we do.
Either approach requires something from the administration other than words and
the threat of sanctions, particularly if the sanctions are going to be largely
unilateral and not multilateral. As it is, Trump is unlikely to get the
Europeans to join the sanctions unless he addresses their concerns about not
renegotiating the JCPOA or makes clear that the price for him not walking away
from the JCPOA is European responsiveness on sanctions against Iran’s
de-stabilizing regional actions. Even this may not be sufficient to put the
necessary pressure on the Iranians unless the Trump administration is prepared
to use tailored air power to raise the costs to the Iranians and the Shi’ite
militias in Syria and also engage the Iranians. Is it prepared to do so? If it
is not, if President Trump is not prepared to back diplomacy with coercion and
contain the Iranians in Syria or Iraq, the gap between his stated policy and
reality will only widen.
How Iran Tried to Turn Arab States into Fading Ghosts
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 11/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=60226
If history is a stage on which the fate of nations is played out, knowing when
to step in and when to bow out is of crucial importance. Being in the wrong
place at the wrong time and, even worse, in the wrong context, could lead to
loss and grief.
These may have been some of the thoughts that Lebanon’s outgoing Prime Minister
Saad Hariri may have had in mind when he decided to throw in the towel rather
than pretending to exercise an office without being able to do so in any
effective manner. Hariri realized that he was in office but not in power.
Whatever the reason for Hariri’s departure, I think he was right to withdraw
from a scenario aimed at turning Lebanon into a ghost of a state with a ghost of
a president and ghost prime minister and parliament.
That scenario was written in Tehran in the early 1980s with the creation of the
Lebanese branch of Hezbollah by then Iranian Ambassador to Damascus Ayatollah
Ali-Akbar Mohtashami-pour. The original idea had taken shape in 1975 when
Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari created the first branch of Hezbollah in Tehran to fight
the Shah. By 1977 clandestine branches had been created in Turkey and Kuwait.
The hope was to fade out political frontiers, often created by accidents of
history or designs of empires, and replace them with religious frontiers. The
aim was to create an archipelago of Shi’ite communities across the Middle East,
linked together through a network of religious-political organizations
controlled by Iran.
The rationale for this was that throughout Islamic history, the element binding
people together was allegiance to a version of the religion (Arabic :Mazhab)
rather than political concepts such as citizenship of a state.
The fall of the Shah and the seizure of power in Tehran by mullahs gave the
scheme a new impetus by putting Iran’s resources at its disposal.
However, very soon it became apparent that the grand design could not be
realized without destroying or at least weakening Western-style state structures
already in place. The states targeted had more or less strong armed forces that
would resist an Iranian takeover.
This was precisely what happened in Turkey, where attempts by the Hezbollah
branch to make a splash were crushed by the army.
In Iraq, premature takeover bid by Khomeini gave Saddam Hussein an excuse to
invade Iran and start an eight-year war.
In Syria, according to the memoirs of General Hussein Hamadani, who led the
Iranian military contingent there, the national army did all it could to prevent
Tehran from creating power bases of its own. The situation in Syria changed only
when the nation was plunged into civil war by President Bashar al-Assad’s
ruthless repression of peaceful protests.
The mullahs learned from their experience in Iran.
Soon after they seized power by a combination of freakish circumstances,
Khomeini realized that he would never win the loyalty of existing state
structures while being unable to destroy them altogether.
Thus, he developed the strategy known as “parallelism” (movazi-sazi in Persian).
He created the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a parallel to the
national army. Islamic courts were set up as parallels to state courts based on
laws inspired by the Napoleonic Code. The Majlis (parliament) found its parallel
in the Assembly of Experts.
Applied to other Middle Eastern countries, this strategy was known as
“tohi-sazi” or “emptying of content”. The first place this was put into practice
was Lebanon.
Iran created a Shi’ite militia to “parallel” the regular Lebanese army. Then,
through Hezbollah, Tehran also recruited allies among other Lebanese communities
and transformed the Lebanese parliament into a toothless bulldog. Finally,
Tehran succeeded in propelling its candidate into the presidency, and secured
effective power of veto in the Council of Ministers.
All that costs a lot of money.
According to the current Iranian national budget, Iran is spending an average of
$60 million a month in Lebanon, most of it through Hezbollah. Consequently, as
President Hassan Rouhani said in a speech last month, nothing can be done in
Lebanon without Iran’s say-so.
The Lebanese branch of Hezbollah has given Iran value for money to the point of
sustaining thousands of casualties in combat in the 2006 mini-war with Israel
and, more importantly, the campaign to crush Assad’s opponents in Syria.
In Iraq, the Iranian scheme has had partial results.
Tehran has created the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of 17 Shi’ite
militias, plus the Islamic Peshmergas (Kurdish fighters hired by Tehran) to
parallel the Iraqi national army and the military force of the Kurdistan
Autonomous Government.
Tehran also exerts political influence through at least part of the Ad-Daawa
(The Call) party. However, Iran’s hope of doing a second Lebanon in Iraq has not
succeeded because many Iraqis resent Iranian domination while the grand
ayatollahs of Najaf regard the Khomeinist regime in Tehran as an abomination.
The mullah’s scheme in Syria has also run into trouble because of Russian
intervention and President Vladimir Putin’s determination that Syria’s future is
decided in Moscow and not in Tehran.
Tehran’s scheme has had partial success in Yemen.
Iran’s surrogates, the Houthis, succeeded in creating a parallel army in the
shape of Ansar Allah but failed to fully clip the wings of the regular army. The
Houthis also reduced President Ali Abdullah Saleh to a shadow of his past but
could not fully get rid of him. On top of that the Saudi-led coalition’s
intervention has dealt a decisive blow to Tehran’s hope of doing a second
Lebanon in Yemen.
In the case of Qatar and Oman, Tehran used Finlandization, allowing them to
enjoy tranquility in exchange for splitting the Arab ranks and toeing the
mullahs’ line on key issues.
When Muhammad Morsi took over as Egypt’s elected president, Tehran tried to sell
its scenario in Cairo as well.
Former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati was sent to Egypt with a letter from
‘Supreme Leader” Ali Khamenei. In it Khamenei called on Morsi to disband the
Egyptian army and create a parallel military force to “guard the revolution”.
The proposed scheme was never applied either because, as Velayati and Khamenei
claim, Morsi rejected it or the Egyptian army pre-empted it by deposing Morsi.
Hariri’s resignation may be a sign that the Arabs are no longer prepared to grin
and bear it as Tehran dismantles their state structures by creating doubles to
their armies and transforming their governments into puppets with their strings
pulled from the Iranian Embassy.
Tehran’s scheme for dominating the Arab states may have reached its limits; the
rapid advance of the mullahs may now be followed with a roll-back. And that
could mean the return of political frontiers and loyalties based on citizenship
not religious sect.
Name: "Sword of Islam"? Let Him In!
Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/November 11/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11338/sword-of-islam-sayfullo
Even the craziest immigration systems dreamed up by European officials have not
yet come up with something like America's "diversity visa" lottery, by which
someone named "Sword of Islam" is promptly let into the country -- only then to
mow people down in a New York bicycle lane.
Nearly 56,000 foreign nationals have disappeared from the radar of the British
authorities after being told that they were required to leave the country.
Instead of looking warm and big-hearted, you begin to look as if you were just
unforgivably lax with the security of your own citizens. So an entire political
class has been.
It is only eight weeks since an 18-year old Iraqi-born man walked onto the
London Underground and left a bomb on the District line. Fortunately for the
rush-hour commuters and school children on that train, the detonating device
went off without managing to set off the bomb itself. Had the device worked, the
many passengers who suffered life-changing burns would instead have been among
many other people taken away in body bags. Ahmed Hassan came to the UK illegally
in 2015 and was subsequently provided with foster care by the British
government. He has now been charged, and is awaiting trial, for causing an
explosion and attempted murder.
As stories like that of Mr. Hassan emerge, there are varying reactions. Some
people say that this act is not indicative of anything, and that we must accept
that such things happen -- like the weather. Others suggest that anyone might
leave a bomb on the District line in the morning, and that there is no more
reason to alter your border policy because of it than there is to alter your
meteorological policy because of it.
As poll after poll shows, however, the majority of the public in Britain -- as
in every other European country -- think something else. They think that a
country that has lost a grip on its immigration policy is very likely to lose
control of its security policy, and that one may indeed follow the other.
So the British public were not at all reassured by the news this month that the
country's Home Office has lost track of tens of thousands of foreign nationals
who were due to be removed from the country. Nor that there is no evidence of
any effort to find the people in question.
Figures revealed in two new reviews by the Chief Inspector of Borders and
Immigration showed that nearly 56,000 foreign nationals have disappeared from
the radar of the British authorities after being told that they were required to
leave the country. This figure includes over 700 foreign national offenders (FNOs)
who went missing after being released into the community from prison. It also
revealed that around 80,000 foreign nationals are required to check in on a
regular basis at police stations and immigration centres while authorities
prepare for them to leave the country. By the end of 2016, just under 56,000 of
them had failed to keep appointments and had become persons "whose whereabouts
are unknown and all mandatory procedures to re-establish contact with the
migrant have failed."
Nevertheless, with a straight face, Brandon Lewis, the immigration minister for
the present Conservative government, declared that "People who have no right to
live in this country should be in no doubt of our determination to remove them."
Yet he still admitted that "Elements of these reports make for difficult
reading."
For the British public, they will also make difficult living. We all have to
live with the consequences of an immigration system which has been more than
usually unfit for purpose since the Labour government of 1997. It is just the
British version of a story that is playing all across Western Europe. Across the
Western half of the continent, all governments have allowed immigration policy
to slide for more than a generation. Having become lax about policing the
borders, they have become lax about returning people who have no right to be
inside those borders. And having become lax about returning people who should
not be in the country, they end up putting at peril the citizens of the country.
When the post-1997 Labour government first decided that the return of people in
the UK illegally was not an important priority, they did so in part because the
then-immigration minister decided that it was too traumatic for everyone
involved: traumatic for the illegal migrant and for the UK border officials who
had to remove them. In just such a way, by thousands of small cuts, does a
nation's territorial integrity and future security become shattered.
Although a person's name may be nothing more than an inauspicious start -- its
owner, after all, did not choose it -- even the craziest immigration systems
dreamed up by European officials have not yet come up with something like
America's "diversity visa" lottery, by which someone pronounces themselves to be
called "Sword of Islam" [terrorist Sayfullo Saipov] and is promptly let into the
country -- only then to mow people down in a New York bicycle lane. But we are
all suffering from variants of the same mania.
Nevertheless, even the most seriously ingrained manias can be snapped out of. In
Britain, as in the rest of Western Europe and North America, there is only
thought to be a political price to pay for being tough on immigration. For the
time being, only people who believe in enforcing the law look heartless. Only
those who insist on following -- or even tightening -- due process look like the
ones who have done a wicked thing.
But as the events on the Underground in London in September presage, all of this
can change in a few instants. A few more bombs left by a few more illegal
immigrants, or a few more trucks driven along a few more bicycle lanes -- let
alone by illegal immigrants who have overstayed and not been deported -- and the
whole thing can change. At that point, instead of looking warm and big-hearted,
you begin to look as if you were just unforgivably lax with the security of your
own citizens. So an entire political class has been. But it may take a lot of
bloodshed yet for them to learn that there are not just political benefits to be
accrued from such laxness, but one day a political price to pay.
**Douglas Murray, British author, commentator and public affairs analyst, is
based in London, England. His latest book, an international best-seller, is "The
Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam."
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Fundamental Saudi shifts and the change coming to the
Middle East
Raghida Dergham/November 11/17
What will happen now that the strategy of US President Donald Trump on Iran and
its proxies has finally converged with Saudi strategy, which has decided that
Lebanon’s Hezbollah is the ‘head of the snake’ in Tehran’s expansionism in the
Arab world, from Iraq to Yemen via Syria and Bahrain?
The obvious questions include whether the convergence consist exclusively
political orientations, or whether there is a plan with mechanisms and
instruments, distribution of roles, and assignment of responsibilities, be they
political, economic, or otherwise. The questions include also Russia’s role in
this context, and to what extent Europe can exclude itself as it adapts to the
new US policy that radically depart from those of the Obama administration,
Europe’s partner in accommodating the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The best-case scenario being circulated envisions that a grand bargain between
the key regional and international players is in the preparation stage, based on
preempting any devastating regional war through accords that include Iran, the
Saudi-led Sunni bloc, and Israel. Those dreaming of this outcome are many. They
have crossed the traditional barriers that have placed the “Palestinian cause”
as an excuse for preventing any peaceful coexistence in the Middle East, and
they are sick of sectarian wars that have ravaged the region and shattered the
hopes and dreams of ordinary Iranians and Arabs.
By contrast, there are two other camps, which can be said to be comprised of
realists: One argues that the grand bargain requires a grand war. They say that
there is no room for normalization of relations without such wars. What is
clear, however, is that all players in the region want to keep these wars away
from their own home soils. Iran is not fighting on its territories, nor is
Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building for the future and want to firmly
keep all battles away from their lands. This means then that the battlefield
will be in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon – and perhaps Lebanon is the only
place where Israel could become directly involved.
The other camp argues that Iran is not about to go to war with Iran even through
Hezbollah, because the historical truce-like relationship between the Persians
and the Jews would not collapse just because of a convergence between Washington
and Riyadh at this moment in history. Accordingly, the Trump administration
would have no choice but to consent to the project for a ‘Persian Crescent’,
developed with the consent of both the US and Israeli establishments a long time
ago.
A key question vis-à-vis all these scenarios is: Where does the US really stand?
What is the margin of trust in the administration and its ability to deliver on
its promises and threats? Furthermore, where does Israel stand in the same
balance of war and peace?
According to a source close to the White House, Donald Trump learned a valuable
lesson from Iraq, namely that the US must not be in the front row of the
region’s wars. The source said the US would support but not lead, instead
placing the burden and the responsibility on the Sunni bloc to fight terrorism.
The US would back the US in its fight against terrorism and in its quest to
modernize, reform, and purge itself of corruption, the source added, “but the US
will not be in the front row.”
The source explained that US strategy vis-à-vis Iran, the Revolutionary Guards,
and Hezbollah is “economic isolation”. Washington is determined to pressure the
Europeans into ending their economic dealings with Iran, or else force their
companies to pay a price, the source said.
With regard to the IRGC and Hezbollah, the US strategy goes beyond economic
isolation and sanctions. The ultimate goal, according to the source, is to
dismantle the Iranian model of creating a dual structure shared by regular
armies and paramilitaries along the lines of the IRGC and Hezbollah, and to a
lesser degree, the Popular Mobilization forces in Iraq.
The source says the Trump administration has a strategy for confrontation, but
it is not based on war as a first choice, but on economic and political pushback
against Iran, through the designation of the IRGC and Hezbollah in parallel with
a campaign to enlist European powers led by Germany, and by “providing support
for all that Saudi Arabia sets out to do at this juncture”.
The US source stressed that Saudi Arabia is not alone, but is backed by a Sunni
alliance consisting of the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan. The US is “quietly
coordinating” with these countries on more than one level.
However, Egypt has made it clear in the words of its President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
that it does not intend to take action against Hezbollah. Sisi’s positions are
reminiscent of Egypt’s stance regarding the Arab Coalition’s intervention in
Yemen, when it poured cold water on expectations it would join the intervention.
Egypt here is singing a different tune from the US-GCC camp, which believes the
time has come to stand up to Iran and Hezbollah, according to the US official,
though not militarily at the time being. After his remarks on Hezbollah,
however, Sisi was keen to mend the damage his statements caused to relations
with the Saudis and Emiratis, proclaiming that the security of the Gulf was a
“red line” and that Egypt was opposed to Iranian meddling.
Now Israel – is it willing and prepared to deal a military blow to Hezbollah?
One Hezbollah leader has been quoted as saying that if the Saudis are betting on
war between Israel and Hezbollah, then they will be disappointed. According to
all indications, neither Hezbollah is prepared to use its ‘resistance’ arms
against Israel, nor is Israel currently prepared for war with Hezbollah, as long
as it is getting everything it wants in Syria’s Golan thanks to Russia, and as
long as resolution 1701 continues to rein in Hebzollah with its consent. The
matter of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal is on hold until further notice, it seems,
pending the progression of the Iranian-Israel dynamic towards either containment
or confrontation.
Israel is not in a hurry to substitute the historical truce between Jews and (Shia
Muslim) Persians with an accord with Sunni Arabs, who it has always seen as the
enemy seeking to restore Palestine. Otherwise, it does not mind peace and
normalization with the Sunni bloc as long as no concessions in Palestine are
asked of it as a price. In reality, however, non-peace is convenient for Israel,
which can continue to claim it is in danger of war to garner international
sympathy. Israel may therefore not be in a hurry to make peace with the Sunni
bloc nor to build an alliance with the Sunnis against Iran or Hezbollah in
Lebanon.
The US strategy to confront Iran and Hezbollah is not of a military nature, as
long as Israel is not a player. So far, the US strategy is confined to sanctions
and isolation, and pressure on the Europeans to isolate Iran in parallel with
upgrading ties with Saudi Arabia from resentment to a full alliance.
The litmus test for the US-Iranian/Hezbollah dynamic is not Lebanon, but remains
Syria and Iraq. In these two countries, the Trump administration can do a lot to
rein in Iran’s gains on the ground, and prevent Iran and its allies from holding
on to the arc or crescent cutting through the territories recaptured from ISIS
creating a corridor that links up to the Holy Land, perhaps part of that
truce-like dynamic with Israel.
The Trump administration believes embargoing Hezbollah in Lebanon is an easier
task than retaking the Syrian-Iraqi corridor from Iran. The administration
believes this approach could succeed and could be taken up by the Europeans,
bearing in mind the Russians would veto any such bid at the Security Council
level.
Washington agrees with its allies in the Gulf that Hezbollah has become an
enemy, waging direct war on their interests. Washington supports any measures by
the Gulf countries against Hezbollah, believing the Saudi escalation together
with the US measures are enough to send a message to both Iran and Hezbollah
that the status quo needs to change, now through ‘civilian’ measures but if not,
then later through ‘non-civilian’ ones.
The problem here is one of confidence in US promises and even strategy that many
in the Arab region and the Middle East have today. What’s new in the equation,
however, is not the vacillating and furtive US policy, but the new direction in
Saudi Arabia.
Among the key challenges the new Saudi Arabia faces, besides its domestic purge
of corruption and complacent attitudes, is how to forge relations with the
peoples of Arab countries that have become an arena for Iranian wars with Saudi
Arabia, led by Yemen and Lebanon, at a time when the outcome in Syria and Iraq
so far favors Iran.
In other words, the new language adopted by Saudi Arabia must take into account
its reception among the peoples of Lebanon and Yemen, and elsewhere. Yemen is
different from Lebanon given the direct implications for Saudi national
security, where Iran is working together with the Houthi rebels to create a
forward base for the destabilization of the kingdom. Riyadh has a right to
defend its national security, particularly after the launch of Iranian-made
ballistic missiles towards the Saudi capital from Yemeni territory. However, the
people of Yemen remain the most important element to win the war in their
country. This requires a new language, the kind of language Saudi Arabia uses to
characterize its own future, and must be extended to Yemen’s human
infrastructure with respect and boldness.
In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia must evaluate the effect of Prime Minister Saad
al-Hariri’s resignation announced from Riyadh, instead of downplaying the
implications. All of Lebanon has felt insulted including those who fully
understand it is not logical or reasonable for the kingdom to continue to bless
a government coalition that brings together its Lebanese ally with its enemy,
who is implicated in the war on its border.
The bombshell resignation from the Saudi capital, together with reports or
rumors that Hariri is under house arrest, has rallied the Lebanese emotionally
against the kingdom, and made them ‘appreciate’ the ‘reassuring’ positions of
Hezbollah’s chief Nasrallah. Even if this is all temporary, Saudi Arabia must be
aware of Lebanon’s patriotic sensitivities – even though the Lebanese continue
to bury their heads in the sand when it comes to the impossible contradiction
between Hezbollah in government and Hezbollah the paramilitary organization
fighting Saudi Arabia on behalf of Iran.
Saudi Arabia has adopted historical shifts and developed a new foreign policy
based on Iran not Israel being the threat to its national security, without
hiding or denying this implication. Perhaps clarifying the seriousness of the
partnership between the Trump administration and the Saudi-led Sunni bloc, and
their determination to stand up to Iran through real action against the IRGC and
Hezbollah, will prompt Tehran to revise its course. Tehran may understand that
the truce-like dynamic with Israel is not permanent, and that its interests amid
all this lies in a radical reversal of its bid to export its Islamic
revolutionary and republican model. But then it may do the opposite and double
down, believing that its Russian ally will remain faithful, and that its gains
and investments in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon are worth the risk.
In conclusion, there can be no return to the status quo after all these
earthquakes. Some kind of change is coming to the Middle East, either under this
or other scenarios, be they peaceful or otherwise, before a grand bargain
matures.