LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 05/17
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations
What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes
James 04/13-17/Now listen, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.” Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.” As it is, you boast in your arrogant schemes. All such boasting is evil. If anyone, then, knows the good they ought to do and doesn’t do it, it is sin for them.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04-05/17
14 March escapees/Roger /Face Book/December 04/17
Goodbye Lebanon we knew/Hussein Shobokshi/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
Erdogan: No Moderate Islam/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
Palestinians: More Missed Opportunities/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
Why Did Flynn Lie and Why Did Mueller Charge Him with Lying/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
Contrary to Media Reports, FBI Hate Crime Statistics Do Not Support Claims of Anti-Muslim Backlash/Jonathan S. Tobin/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
Ali Abdullah Saleh: The last dance of Yemen’s snake-charmer/Faisal al-Yafai/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
Yemen finally revolts against Houthis/Mashari Althaydi/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
OPEC and non-OPEC pact: An endgame becomes necessary/Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/December 04/17

Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on December 04-05/17
14 March escapees
Goodbye Lebanon we knew
Cabinet Meets Tuesday after Deal Reached on Dissociation Statement
Kataeb Vows to 'Resist Any Attempt to Oppress, Silence Lebanese'
Army Seizes Narcotics, Weapons in Hermel
Mashnouq Refers Electoral Commission Bylaws to Cabinet
France Hosts International Meeting on Lebanon Friday
Report: Hariri to Call for Cabinet Meeting
Report: Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Hold Lengthy Meetings on Political Crisis
Marcel Ghanem to be Interrogated on December 18
Choucair receives Lassen, opts for dialogue and dissociation policy

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/17
Yemen's ex-President Saleh Killed by Huthi Rebels
US, South Korea Begin Largest-Ever Joint Air Drill
Kushner Sets Stage for Trump's Jerusalem Decision
ICC Says 'Reasonable Basis' for British War Crimes in Iraq
UK Halts Syrian Rebel Police Funding over Extremism Claims
Russia provides air cover for Kurdish militia in Syria
UN voices alarm about spread of HIV in Egypt amid social stigmas
Saudi King receives US Secretary of energy
‘I haven’t been kidnapped’: Egypt’s Ahmed Shafiq contradicts daughter’s claims
Arab League chief warns Trump that Jerusalem move could fuel violence

Latest Lebanese Related News published on December 04-05/17
14 March escapees
Roger /Face Book/December 04/17
14 March escapees (by escapees are meant the ones who have escaped from the taming process unclenched by Hezbollah) should immediately gather, form a political party and call on the Lebanese to join it. In the absence of Mustaqbal, PSP and Amal, the new 14 March party will lead a credible opposition against the state apparatus and the traditional political parties totally tamed by Hezbollah.
*On the credibility scale, Fares Soueid weighs a billion time more than Ghattas Khoury.
*The truth about Iranian Mediocre and obsolete missile technology is once again clearly displayed by the ridiculous missile launch by the Houthis towards Abu Dhabi nuclear plant (under construction). This missile pompously labeled "cruise", exploded in the air missing its target by....1000km.
Iran's classic military and supposedly strategic weaponry is less than a paper tiger. Their only assets are the terrorist groups and militias they support in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
*find difficult to understand how people are so blind to history and common sense. How can those morons believe that a bankrupt country with 0 technological input, 0 attractive values and a dramatic retreat since the 80', such as Russia, is a "winning" camp attractive enough to join or bet on. Idem for a demential country such as Iran.
*Someone has to give a law crash course to Jreissati about the prerogatives and the job description of the Minister of Justice. To start with he should be reminded that the Minister of justice is not a prosecutor and cannot even influence the judicial system. A Minister is part of the executive which is totally separated from the judicial. Has this guy has any notion of the separation of powers?

Goodbye Lebanon we knew
Hussein Shobokshi/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
In full public glare Saad Hariri, accompanied by his wife and son, visited Paris and met with the French president at the Elysee Palace. With his appearance and participation during the Independence Day celebrations in Beirut, Hariri exposed a web of lies and rumors woven around him by the terrorist organization Hezbollah. Presently, the Saudi-Lebanese relations are at an unprecedented crossroads. This crisis has revealed the extent of hatred and lies against Saudi Arabia and its symbols is being spread by a lot of Lebanese politicians and their flock.
Irrespective of the situation, Lebanon has changed a great deal and now it needs to answer some pertinent questions, portraying a true picture of its identity and the mission. The country has been promoting itself as a beacon of science, freedom, tolerance and coexistence in the East for a long time.
As a matter of fact, Lebanon is changing and transforming. It lost its true identity and its icons such as Saint Maroun, the patron saint of Lebanon and Fakhreddine, prince of the Mount Lebanon Emirate, have been replaced by Hassan Rohani and Ali Akbar Velayati and they are proud that Lebanon is under their command.Today there is an explicit Iranian occupation that systematically erases the identity of Lebanon
Financing terrorism
Lebanon had a banking system, which was a source of its pride, stability and a shining example of its power and professionalism. It has now been infiltrated by corrupt elements involved in money-laundering crimes, facilitating financing of terrorism, drug trafficking and sale of weapons.
As a result, Lebanese banks are now threatened by unprecedented international sanctions. Baalbek is no longer a hot spot for festivals, art and world culture. It t has in fact become a breeding ground for mafia gangs, kidnappers, blackmailer and murderers.
Rafik Hariri International Airport, which was the urban civilizational facade of Beirut and Lebanon, has become a den for the organization of terrorist Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence elements. These criminals indulge in false accusations, kidnappings and extortion. There are many known stories of prosecution and threats against Lebanese visitors and assassination attempts on businessmen and diplomats affiliated with some countries. Football matches now have sectarian aspect. Fairouz’s songs were recently banned at universities and books were confiscated. Lebanon has become wild. It has recognized various occupations, known in the Turkish era, in the French era and in the Syrian era.
Iranian occupation
Today there is an explicit Iranian occupation that systematically erases the identity of Lebanon. The spirit of freedom, the spirit of and ‘mercantilism’ and the idea of free trade has vanished after the penetration of the organization of the terrorist party in the authorities, which look after the affairs of economic life.
A few years ago, the distinguished Lebanese scholar, Kamal Deeb, in his widely read book entitled “This Ancient Bridge” predicted that within two decades no Christian would remain in Lebanon because of the tyranny of extremism and militancy. Lebanon has become a part of the Islamic Republic of Qom, as Hassan Nasrallah swears repeatedly. If Lebanon agrees, in this case there will be no difference between it and North Korea and Zimbabwe. Everyone knows where they are, but no one wants to deal with them, especially as they have become platforms for exporting terrorism and killing. If the Lebanese accept this wounded Lebanon, then forgive them for their heart, but please “keep it” in Lebanon, as Lebanon which we loved, is no longer as it is.

Cabinet Meets Tuesday after Deal Reached on Dissociation Statement
Naharnet/December 04/17/The Cabinet will convene Tuesday for the first time since Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Nov. 4 resignation, which he eventually reversed, TV networks reported late on Monday. The decision to hold the extraordinary session was reached after the political parties reached an agreement on a statement that will reaffirm Lebanon's so-called dissociation policy, the reports said. According to al-Jadeed TV, the statement will mention dissociating Lebanon from “the regional conflicts.” The meeting will be held at 12:00 pm at the presidential palace in Baabda. According to media reports, Speaker Nabih Berri has insisted on “reassuring Saudi Arabia” in the statement. Hariri had caused widespread perplexity on November 4 when he resigned during a TV broadcast from Saudi Arabia, citing assassination threats and blasting the policies of Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon and the region. After a puzzling mini-odyssey that took him to France, Egypt and Cyprus, Hariri arrived back in Lebanon on November 21 and then announced that he was putting his decision to quit on hold ahead of negotiations. But while Hariri and his Saudi backers seemed on a collision course with Hizbullah last month, an apparent behind-the-scenes deal now appears to be restoring the status quo. The premier has called for dissociating Lebanon from the regional conflicts through ending Hizbullah’s involvement in them.

Kataeb Vows to 'Resist Any Attempt to Oppress, Silence Lebanese'
Naharnet/December 04/17/The Kataeb Party on Monday vowed to “resist any attempt to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and independence or to silence and oppress the Lebanese.” “The party promises the Lebanese to defend right and freedom no matter what that may cost. It also pledges to confront all threats and intimidation attempts and any apparatus that tries to revive the Syrian occupation era,” said Kataeb in a statement issued after its political bureau's weekly meeting.
“The Kataeb Party stresses to all Lebanese that it will not allow this bad era to rule Lebanon anew,” it added.

Army Seizes Narcotics, Weapons in Hermel
Naharnet/December 04/17/Lebanon's Armed Forces seized on Monday ample amounts of narcotics, cannabis and weapons in the outskirts of the eastern town of Hermel, the National News Agency reported on Monday.
The army carried out large-scale raids at dawn in the outskirts of Hermel confiscating sizable amounts of manufactured narcotics, tons of cannabis and materials used to manufacture it, said NNA. The troops have also found weapons and ammunition that were transported to a military barrack, it added.

Mashnouq Refers Electoral Commission Bylaws to Cabinet
Naharnet/December 04/17/Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq on Monday referred to the Council of Ministers the draft bylaws of the Electoral Supervisory Commission that will oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. As part of the ministry's preparations for the elections, Mashnouq also presided over a periodic meeting for senior ministry officials to “follow up on the preparations and give instructions,” the National News Agency said. The country has not voted for a parliament since 2009, with the legislature instead twice extending its own mandate. The next elections are scheduled for May 2018 and will be held under a complex electoral law based on the proportional representation system for the first time in Lebanon's history.

France Hosts International Meeting on Lebanon Friday
Naharnet/December 04/17/France will host the International Lebanon Support Group at the Quai d'Orsay on Friday at the level of foreign ministers to discuss the political crisis that emerged in in the country, An Nahar daily reported on Monday. Lebanon's delegation will be led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian will lead the French side, it added. The meeting will be attended by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France in addition to Germany, Italy and Egypt, the UN General Secretariat, the European Union and the League of Arab States, added the daily. Diplomatic sources expect the participation of foreign ministers: US Rex Tillerson, Russian Sergei Lavrov, United Kingdom Boris Johnson, German Sigmar Gabriel, Italian Angelino Alfano, Egyptian Sameh Shukri, EU Foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini as well as representatives of the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Arab League. Paris is adamant in helping find a solution for the crisis that emerged in Lebanon following Hariri's resignation, and is keen on ensuring an international cover to safeguard the country's stability in light of the regional conflicts surrounding it. It has urged Lebanese parties to adhere to the “dissociation policy” and distance Lebanon from the battles raging around it. France has also called on Hizbullah to lay down its weapons and respect the sovereignty of Lebanon in line with the UN Security Resolutions.

Report: Hariri to Call for Cabinet Meeting
Naharnet/December 04/17/Prime Minister Saad Hariri is expected on Monday to call the ministers for a meeting this week to tackle the “government statement” following a political crisis that paralyzed the country after his shock resignation on November 4, al-Joumhouria daily reported. President Michel Aoun is set to chair the session at Baabda Palace Tuesday or Thursday. An unnamed source told the daily that Hariri will call for a “Tuesday meeting to discuss the government statement. Discussions with various political parties, including Hizbullah, are ongoing to agree on the final version of the statement.”Reports have said that the Cabinet statement calls for the implementation of Lebanon's dissociation policy, commitment to the Taef Accord, and adherence to the policy of nonintervention in the internal affairs of Arab countries. On the other hand, ministerial sources told the daily that “the date of the meeting tomorrow is not conclusive and it could be postponed until some things are sorted out,” but stressed that it will take place this week. Hariri had caused widespread perplexity on November 4 when he resigned during a TV broadcast from Saudi Arabia, citing assassination threats and blasting the policies of Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon and the region. After a puzzling mini-odyssey that took him to France, Egypt and Cyprus, Hariri arrived back in Lebanon on November 21 and then announced that he was putting his decision to quit on hold ahead of negotiations. But while Hariri and his Saudi backers seemed on a collision course with Hizbullah last month, an apparent behind-the-scenes deal now appears to be restoring the status quo. The premier has called for dissociating Lebanon from the regional conflicts through ending Hizbullah’s involvement in them, revealing that “there is seriousness in the ongoing contacts and dialogues” and that the other parties seem to be inclined to accept his proposals.

Report: Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Hold Lengthy Meetings on Political Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/During talks with al-Mustaqbal Movement officials, Hizbullah has shown “flexibility” in approaching “any format” of Lebanon's dissociation policy “inspired by the ministerial statement that it had already approved,” al-Ittihad newspaper reported on Monday. The newspaper said that lengthy consecutive meetings were held recently between Hizbullah secretary-general's political aide Hussein Khalil and Nader Hariri, senior aide of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, with the aim of finding common ground regarding the “dissociation policy concept.” Al-Mustaqbal leadership has expressed “satisfaction regarding Hizbullah's cooperative” approach, added the daily. It added that the argument that will be enclosed in the ministerial statement will be “clear-cut,” and keen on “appeasing Hariri.” Political parties are working on resolving a political crisis that emerged following Hariri's surprise resignation on November 4 from Saudi Arabia. Hariri had caused widespread perplexity when he resigned during a TV broadcast from Saudi Arabia, citing assassination threats and blasting the policies of Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon and the region. After a puzzling mini-odyssey that took him to France, Egypt and Cyprus, Hariri arrived back in Lebanon on November 21 and then announced that he was putting his decision to quit on hold ahead of negotiations. But while Hariri and his Saudi backers seemed on a collision course with Hizbullah last month, an apparent behind-the-scenes deal now appears to be restoring the status quo. The premier has called for dissociating Lebanon from the regional conflicts through ending Hizbullah’s involvement in them, revealing that “there is seriousness in the ongoing contacts and dialogues” and that the other parties seem to be inclined to accept his proposals.

Marcel Ghanem to be Interrogated on December 18
Naharnet/December 04/17/Prominent talk show host Marcel Ghanem will be interrogated on December 18 over hosting Saudi journalists who branded the Lebanese president and parliament speaker as "terrorists" during one of his show's episodes. “The lawyer Joy Lahoud, representing MP Butros Harb's law firm, appeared before Baabda First Examining Magistrate Nicolas Mansour and submitted the firm's authorization to represent the journalist Marcel Ghanem,” the National News Agency reported. Lahoud requested some time to “study the file and take the appropriate stance,” NNA said, adding that a session to interrogate Ghanem has been scheduled for December 18. Ghanem had recently announced that he is accused of insulting the judiciary and the president. “I'm not supposed to defend anyone and I'm rather a talk show host. I don't regret what I did on air and I only managed the episode. What is my crime?” Ghanem told Al-Arabiya television. Justice Minister Salim Jreissati has said that Ghanem will only give his testimony and that no lawsuit has been filed against him. “A lot of state officials have testified before the judiciary, the last of which was Telecom Minister (Jamal) al-Jarrah,” Jreissati explained.
“Ghanem is asked to testify in a case related to the publications law and there are no arrests in such cases,” the minister reassured. Jreissati had asked the country's prosecutor general to launch an investigation against the two Saudi journalists who appeared on Ghanem's Kalam Ennas talk show, one of the most watched weekly TV programs in Lebanon. The minister wrote in a two-page letter to the prosecutor that the two men, Ibrahim Al Merhi and Adwan al-Ahmari, have engaged in libel against top officials including President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The move came at a time when tensions were very high between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia over the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced from the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Choucair receives Lassen, opts for dialogue and dissociation policy
Mon 04 Dec 2017/NNA - Minister of State for Human Rights, Ayman Choucair, welcomed on Monday Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Lebanon, Ambassador Christina Lassen. The pair reportedly discussed current developments. "Dialogue and the dissociation policy are Lebanon's only option," Choucair said, hoping that the Lebanese political parties will reach an agreement over a solution the serves the country's interests best.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/17
Yemen's ex-President Saleh Killed by Huthi Rebels
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/
Yemen's ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh was killed by Huthi rebels on Monday as he fled heavy fighting in Sanaa after the collapse of his alliance with the Iran-backed insurgents. Saleh, who ruled with an iron fist for three decades, had joined forces with the Shiite Huthi rebels in 2014 when they took control of large parts of the Arabian Peninsula country including the capital Sanaa. But that alliance unraveled over the past week, with heavy fighting across the capital, and Saleh was shot dead by Huthi fighters after he fled the city. Speaking later on television, President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi, the leader of the internationally recognized government, called on Yemenis to unite against the Huthis. "Let's join hands to end the control of these.. criminal gangs and... open a new chapter to rid our beloved Yemen of this nightmare," Hadi said from Saudi Arabia, where he lives in exile. Saleh was forced to step down in 2012, after his forces waged a bloody crackdown on peaceful Arab Spring-inspired protests calling for his ouster. The 75-year-old had survived civil war, rebellion in the north, an al-Qaida insurgency in the south and a June 2011 bomb attack on his palace that wounded him badly. His death could mark a major turning point in a conflict that has left thousands dead, led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises and deepened tensions between Middle East rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. As the first reports of Saleh's death came in, the Saudi-led coalition that has waged devastating air strikes against the Huthis since September 2015 warned residents to evacuate rebel-controlled areas."We ask civilians to remain at least 500 meters (yards) away from Huthi military vehicles and gatherings," it said. The Huthis announced Saleh's death on the rebels' Al-Masirah television station. A statement declared "end of the crisis of militias," referring to Saleh's armed supporters, and "the killing of their leader and a number of his criminal supporters."
Heavy fighting in Sanaa
A video provided to AFP by the rebels showed what appeared to be a dead Saleh with a severe head injury, his body wrapped in a floral-print blanket. Armed men could be seen loading the body into the back of a pick-up truck in an empty, sandy lot. Saleh's General People's Congress party confirmed his death and blamed the rebels. "He was martyred in the defense of the republic," said Faiqa al-Sayyid, a GPC leader. Sayyid said Saleh and other top party officials had came under Huthi gunfire as they fled Sanaa. A military source said the Huthis stopped their four-car convoy about 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Sanaa and shot dead Saleh and two other senior GPC officials. The collapse of the alliance between Saleh and the rebels saw at least 100 people reported dead in fighting, accusations of betrayal and the former leader reaching out to the Saudi-led coalition. The fighting continued on Monday, with reports of heavy clashes and coalition strikes against Huthi-controlled government buildings and around Sanaa airport. The government, which has operated out of southern city Aden since being ousted from the capital, ordered an offensive to advance on Sanaa. "The president has ordered Vice President Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who is in Marib (east of Sanaa), to activate military units and advance towards the capital," a presidency official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. Military and government sources said the army would advance on Sanaa from the east and northeast, with at least seven battalions ordered to move forward. The government also reached out to Saleh's supporters with an offer of amnesty. "The president will soon announce a general amnesty for all those who collaborated with the Huthis in recent months and who have retracted that allegiance," said Prime Minister Ahmad Obaid bin Daghr.
Fears for civilians
The Saleh-Huthi alliance had been fraught since its inception in 2014, when the two ended decades of enmity and joined ranks to capture Sanaa from Hadi's government. Saudi Arabia, accusing Iran of backing the rebels, intervened in Yemen on behalf of the government the following year. Saleh on Saturday announced he was open to talks with Saudi Arabia and its allies on condition they ended their crippling blockade of Yemen's ports and airports. That dealt a serious blow to his already fragile alliance with rebel chief Abdul Malik al-Huthi. In a televised speech on Monday, Huthi made no mention of Saleh's death but expressed his satisfaction at the day's events. "Today marked the failure of the conspiracy and treason, a black day for the forces of aggression," he said on Al-Masirah. The fresh violence has increased fears for civilian victims of Yemen's war, which has claimed more than 8,750 lives since the Saudi-led coalition intervened. The conflict has pushed Yemen to the brink of mass starvation and triggered what the U.N. has called the world's worst humanitarian crisis. International aid groups warned Monday they were losing the ability to reach civilians in Sanaa. "Ambulances and medical teams can't access injured, people can't buy food and other supplies," UNICEF's Rajat Madhok tweeted. "Aid workers can't travel and implement critical life-saving programs. This latest violence couldn't come at a worse time."

US, South Korea Begin Largest-Ever Joint Air Drill
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/The US and South Korea on Monday kicked off their largest ever joint air exercise, an operation North Korea has labelled an "all-out provocation", days after Pyongyang fired its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile.
The five-day Vigilant Ace drill -- involving 230 aircraft, including F-22 Raptor stealth jet fighters, and tens of thousands of troops -- began Monday morning, Seoul's air force said. Pyongyang over the weekend blasted the drill, accusing US President Donald's Trump's administration of "begging for nuclear war".
The annual exercise comes five days after the nuclear-armed North test-fired a new ICBM, which it says brings the whole of the continental United States within range. As tensions surged, US Senator Lindsey Graham, an influential Republican and foreign policy hawk, warned that the US was moving closer to "preemptive war" with the North. "If there's an underground nuclear test (by the North), then you need to get ready for a very serious response by the United States," Graham told the CBS show "Face the Nation". The isolated and impoverished North has staged six increasingly powerful atomic tests since 2006 -- most recently in September. In recent years Pyongyang has accelerated its drive to bring together nuclear and missile technology capable of threatening the US, which it accuses of hostility.
"The preemption is becoming more likely as their technology matures. Every missile test, every underground test of a nuclear weapon, means the marriage is more likely," Graham said. His remarks echoed those of Trump's National Security Adviser HR McMaster, who told a security forum on Saturday that the potential for war with the North "is increasing every day". This year's US and South Korean wargames feature a number of powerful jet fighters newly mobilised for the event, including six F-22s and 18 units of F-35 combat jets, the US air force said. It also involves simulated precision attacks on the North's military installations, including its missile launch sites and artillery units, Yonhap news agency said, citing unnamed Seoul sources. - Risks of war -The North has boasted that the Hwasong 15 ICBM tested on Wednesday is capable of delivering a "super-large" nuclear warhead anywhere in the US mainland. Analysts agree that the latest test showed a big improvement in potential range, but say it was likely achieved using a dummy warhead that would have been quite light. They say a missile carrying a much heavier nuclear warhead would struggle to travel as far. They are also sceptical that Pyongyang has mastered the sophisticated technology required to protect such a warhead from the extreme temperatures and stresses encountered as the missile hurtles back to Earth. The latest launch, which saw the missile drop into Japan's economic waters, was condemned by Tokyo's parliament Monday, which slammed the North's rogue weapons programme as an "imminent threat". "This is a frontal challenge against the international community that must not be tolerated," added the resolution by Japan's upper house, which came as the country's hawish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said talking to the reclusive state was "meaningless". The North's leader Kim Jong-Un has presided over significant progress in the country's widely-condemned nuclear and missile programmes since taking power in 2011. A nuclear standoff between Kim and Trump in recent months has seen the pair trade personal insults. The tensions have fuelled concerns of another conflict, more than six decades after 1950-53 Korean War that left much of the peninsula in ruins. But even some Trump advisers say US military options are limited when Pyongyang could launch an artillery barrage on the South Korean capital Seoul -- only around 50 kilometres (30 miles) from the heavily-fortified border and home to 10 million people. Estimates on the potential casualties from another war vary widely. The North has thousands of conventional artillery units along the border with the South that analysts say could kill tens of thousands. In one of the latest estimates, Scott Sagan, senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, said the toll could be as high as one million people from just the first day of a conflict.

Kushner Sets Stage for Trump's Jerusalem Decision
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/US President Donald Trump is close to a decision on whether to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, his son-in-law and Middle East peace envoy Jared Kushner said Sunday. Palestinian leaders are lobbying desperately against such a move, which the Arab League chief Ahmed Abul Gheit said would boost fanaticism and violence while sinking hopes for peace. But Kushner, the 36-year-old head of a small and tight-knit White House negotiating team, made a rare public appearance to put an optimistic face on his efforts. "The president's going to make his decision," Kushner told the Saban Forum, choosing not to deny reports Trump will declare Jerusalem Israel's capital on Wednesday. "He's still looking at a lot of different facts and when he makes his decision he'll be the one who wants to tell you. So he'll make sure he does that at the right time." On Monday, Trump must decide whether to sign a legal waiver that would delay plans to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem for another six months. Every US president has done this since 1995, judging the time not ripe for such a move, and Trump is expected to begrudgingly do so for a second time this week. But, according to diplomats and observers, he is also now expected to announce in a speech on Wednesday that he supports Israel's claim on Jerusalem as its capital. - New intifada? -Arab League leader Abul Gheit meanwhile said his organization was closely following the issue and is in contact with the Palestinian authorities and Arab states to coordinate the Arab position if Trump takes the step. "It is unfortunate that some are insisting on carrying out this step without any regard to the dangers it carries to the stability of the Middle East and the whole world," he told reporters in Cairo on Sunday. "Nothing justifies this act... it will not serve peace or stability, instead it will nourish fanaticism and violence," said Abul Gheit. Palestinians have been lobbying regional leaders to oppose the decision and the armed Islamist movement Hamas has threatened to launch a new "intifada."Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas spoke to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya late Sunday, a Hamas statement said, with the two sides agreeing their opposition to any shift in US policy. The rare call between the two comes as attempts at implementing a reconciliation deal have faltered in recent days. But Kushner, addressing a sympathetic audience at an annual meeting of Israeli and US policy-makers hosted by businessman Haim Saban, sees grounds for optimism. The real estate developer turned presidential adviser is working closely with Israeli officials and has developed ties with the young Saudi and Emirati monarchs.  He sees an opportunity for peace if the Sunni Arab countries of the region align themselves with Israel in opposition to the threat of Iran. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shares this hope, although he dares hope an accommodation with Arab countries could precede any Palestinian deal. Kushner, in common with US official thinking under previous administrations, sees a Israeli-Palestinian settlement as coming before any great re-alignment. "You've got to focus on solving the big issue," he told a friendly but frankly skeptical Saban, and an audience of dignitaries and policy experts.
"The regional dynamic plays a big role in what we think the opportunities are because... a lot of these countries look and say they all want the same thing.
"And they look at the regional threats and I think that they see Israel, who is traditionally their foe, is a much more natural ally to them than it was 20 years ago," Kushner added. "You've a lot of people who want to put this together, but you have to overcome this issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order for that to happen." Kushner was speaking just two days after Trump's ex-national security advisor Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his communications with Russia's ambassador during the presidential transition. Kushner reportedly directed him to speak with Moscow's envoy to sway a United Nations Security Council vote on a resolution condemning Israeli settlements shortly before Trump took office. Newsweek reported that Kushner had failed to disclose to the Office of Government Ethics his role as co-director of a foundation that funded an illegal Israeli settlement. - 'Regime will fall' -Earlier, Netanyahu also addressed the forum by video link from Israel, and also spoke of the opportunity for reconciliation in the region. But his focus was firmly on the threat of Iran, which he again compared to Nazi Germany in its alleged determination to "murder Jews."His address barely touched on the Palestinian issue, but did speak of regional peace, under a longer timeframe than the one Kushner has in mind. "And that's just one reason why I'm so hopeful about the future. Today Israel is more welcomed by the nations of the world than ever before," Netanyahu said. "When I look forward 50 and 100 years, I believe Israel will be embraced openly by its Arab neighbors rather than in secret in the way it's done today." Saeb Erekat, secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, was less optimistic, warning a change in the US stance on Jerusalem would spell disaster.In a statement, he warned the United States would "be disqualifying itself to play any role in any initiative towards achieving a just and lasting peace."

ICC Says 'Reasonable Basis' for British War Crimes in Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said Monday there is a "reasonable basis" to believe that some British soldiers committed war crimes after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. The disclosure came in a 74-page report on preliminary inquiries as the ICC's member states gather in New York for its annual nine-day meeting to discuss matters relating to the tribunal. "Following a thorough factual and legal assessment of the information available... there is reasonable basis to believe that members of the UK armed forces committed war crimes, within the jurisdiction of the Court, against persons in their custody," Bensouda said. The Hague-based prosecutor in 2014 reopened an initial probe into war crimes allegations relating to prisoner abuse after rights groups and lawyers alleged that at least 1,071 Iraqi detainees were tortured and ill-treated between March 2003 to December 2008. The same group also alleged that British personnel committed 52 unlawful killings of people in their custody over the same period.
However, a group of lawyers who formed part of the those making the allegations were later found guilty on misconduct charges resulting from a public inquiry. The lawyers' lead counselor was struck off. Bensouda's office however said individual statements received from those lawyers "could be considered credible enough if substantiated with supporting material" such as detention records, medical certificates and photographs. Her office is now considering "complementarity and gravity" before evaluating further steps.Set up in 2002, the Hague-based ICC is an independent court of last resort, only to intervene and prosecute those committing the world's worst crimes if a member country is unwilling or unable to do so themselves. "The prosecutor must be satisfied as to admissibility on both aspects before proceeding," the report said.
Bensouda will then decide whether to ask ICC judges permission to launch a full-blown investigation. The world war crimes court's previous chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo in 2006 said he would not open a full probe in Iraq because he did not have enough evidence. Earlier this year Britain dismissed hundreds of allegations of misconduct by its soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq.

UK Halts Syrian Rebel Police Funding over Extremism Claims
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 04/17/Britain suspended a foreign aid scheme to fund policing in rebel-held areas of Syria worth millions on Monday, following allegations the money had ended up with extremists or been misappropriated. The claims about the Access to Justice and Community Security Project, run by contractor Adam Smith International, are being aired in a BBC Panorama investigation on Monday called "Jihadis You Pay For"."The Foreign Office has suspended this program while we investigate these allegations," a foreign ministry spokesman said, adding that such work was nonetheless important "to protect our national security.""We take any allegations of co-operation with terrorist groups and of human rights abuses extremely seriously," he said, pointing out that "in such a challenging environment no activity is without risk." The scheme, funded by Britain and five other countries, has reportedly been running since 2014, with the aim of establishing a civilian Free Syrian Police force in rebel-held parts of the country.The Panorama report said the police were co-operating with courts to carry out summary executions, and were receiving money in cash which they were then forced to hand over to Nureddin al-Zinki, a rebel group in control of the area in Aleppo province. It also claimed that police officers were being handpicked by Syria's former al-Qaida affiliate, and that there were dead and fictitious people on the police payroll. A spokesman for Adam Smith International told the BBC it "strongly refutes Panorama's allegations." "We have managed taxpayers' money effectively to confront terrorism, bring security to Syrian communities and mitigate the considerable risks of operating in a war zone," the spokesman said. The Times newspaper reported that Western staff working on the project were billing up to £850 (€970 or $1,150) a day, even though they were not allowed into Syria itself because of the dangers and were instead based in Turkey. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson announced earlier this year that Britain was committing an extra £4 million for the Free Syrian Police project.

Russia provides air cover for Kurdish militia in Syria
AFP, Moscow/December 05/17/Russia’s defense ministry said Monday its planes made hundreds of sorties in support of Kurdish and local militias in eastern Syria, predicting that the whole area will soon be free of militant fighters.
The statement came the day after a Russian military delegation met with officials of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units militia (YPG), which acknowledged receiving direct support from Moscow. “Russian aviation carried out 672 sorties and bombed over 1450 targets in the interests of supporting the offensive by the militias of eastern Euphrates tribes and Kurdish militias,” the defense ministry statement said. The YPG formed the bulk of the Syrian Democratic Forces, an Arab-Kurdish alliance that ousted ISIS from swathes of northern and eastern Syria, with help from the US-led coalition. The area east of the Euphrates River has for months been the area of operations by the US-backed SDF, which includes Kurdish and Arab fighters. Russia has meanwhile been helping regime forces battle ISIS militants west of the Euphrates. In September, Russia accused the SDF of targeting Syrian regime forces with artillery fire and even threatened to retaliate if the strikes repeat.
The SDF in turn accused Moscow of striking its forces several times during the drive, which makes the announcement by both Moscow and the YPG all the more surprising. “All activities of the armed militias to the east of the Euphrates are coordinated by the staff of Russian contingent in Syria in Hmeimim,” General-Mayor Yevgeny Poplavsky, who participated in Sunday’s meeting in Syria’s Deir Ezzor province, was quoted as saying in the Russian defense ministry statement.
Poplavsky said Russia’s military advisors are on the ground working with the militias .“In the coming days all Syrian territory east of the Euphrates will be completely liberated from terrorists,” he said. Russian officers are also helping local religious and tribal leaders to govern the area and will help deliver humanitarian aid, he added.

UN voices alarm about spread of HIV in Egypt amid social stigmas
The Associated Press/December 04/17 /The UN is voicing alarm over the spread of HIV in Egypt, where the number of new cases is growing by up to 40 percent a year, and where efforts to combat the epidemic are hampered by social stigma and a lack of funding to address the crisis. The virus that causes AIDS, UN officials say, is infecting more young and adolescent people than any other age group. Egypt, home to some 95 million people, ranks behind only Iran, Sudan and Somalia in the Middle East for the rate at which the epidemic is spreading, according to UN figures. In Egypt, patients are often jailed on trumped up charges and ostracized by society. The disease is associated with homosexuality, which is not explicitly illegal but is widely seen as a transgression against religion and nature in the conservative, Muslim-majority country. "There is a 25-30 percent increase in incidents every year... It's is alarming to us because the growth of the epidemic and the discontinuation of interest from donors in funding," Ahmed Khamis, of the U.N. AIDS agency, told The Associated Press. Estimates of the number of people living with HIV in Egypt vary. UNAIDS says there are over 11,000 cases, while the country's Health Ministry estimates the figure to be around 7,000. The rise in the number of new infections, however, is not in dispute."Most recently, we've been seeing people of a much younger age group infected with the virus. There is a higher risk now for adolescents and youths than in the past," said Khamis.
"We don't have exact numbers, but this is what the evidence we are seeing on the ground is suggesting," he added, explaining that the lack of funds is hampering Egypt's capacity to produce precise figures. Patients who require surgical intervention are often unable to access basic health care at hospitals because of the associated stigma, UNAIDS officials said. The virus can be spread through sexual contact, as well as contaminated needles or syringes, or blood transfusions. It can also be passed from infected women to their babies at birth or through breast-feeding. But in Egypt, the virus is widely associated with homosexuality, which is seen by many Egyptians as a lifestyle choice. In a recent conference on AIDS, Islamic scholar and cleric Ali al-Jifri spoke about the stigma and discrimination surrounding HIV and AIDS patients. "A person diagnosed with HIV is a human. We should never question their diagnosis," he told the conference. A Christian priest, Bolous Soror, told the conference that Egyptians should accept others, regardless of their HIV status. Shunned by society, it is not uncommon for patients to contemplate suicide. Ahmed, 40, is one of them. He has been trying to gain asylum status in the US because, he says, he has lost hope in a future in Egypt. "I do not want to be living a life always feeling strapped down and imprisoned," he told his therapist during a session attended by an AP reporter. Fearing further stigma, he asked that he be identified only by his first name. In an anonymous testimony given to UNAIDS and seen by the AP, one woman said she was infected by her late husband and later found it hard to live in a society that rejects people carrying the virus. She was beaten and denied by her family an inheritance she and her children were legally entitled to when her husband died. When she attempted to start a new life with her children in a different neighborhood, her in-laws made sure her new neighbors learned about her condition.

Saudi King receives US Secretary of energy
SPA, Riyadh/December 04/17/King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud received at Al-Yamamah Palace United States Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.At the outset of the reception, the Secretary conveyed to the King and the Crown Prince the greetings of President Donald Trump of the United States of America, while the King expressed his greetings to the President. During the meeting, they reviewed the relations of friendship, the prospects of bilateral cooperation between the two countries and ways of enhancing them.

‘I haven’t been kidnapped’: Egypt’s Ahmed Shafiq contradicts daughter’s claims
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/December 04/17/Former Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, a potential candidate for the upcoming Egyptian presidency elections, has denounced claims suggesting he was abducted by local authorities upon his return to Cairo. a phone interview with private Egyptian channel Dream, Shafiq said that he was “welcomed well in Cairo upon arriving at Cairo International Airport” on Sunday evening. The former PM also said that he was staying at a hotel east of Cairo since his house has been closed for nearly five and half years. Speaking on the upcoming presidential elections, Shafiq said that he made his decision to run for presidency during his stay in the UAE. However, after arriving in Egypt he decided to understand the people’s needs after which he would make a decision. Meanwhile, Shafiq said his relationship with UAE officials is "very good" and that his family continues to reside in Abu Dhabi.

Arab League chief warns Trump that Jerusalem move could fuel violence
AFP, CairoMonday,/December 04/17/The Arab League chief said on Sunday a decision by US President Donald Trump to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would boost fanaticism and violence, and not serve the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East peace envoy Jared Kushner told the Saban Forum on Sunday the president is close to a decision on whether to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. “It is unfortunate that some are insisting on carrying out this step without any regard to the dangers it carries to the stability of the Middle East and the whole world,” Ahmed Aboul Gheit, head of the Arab League, told reporters in Cairo on Sunday. Aboul Gheit said the Arab League is closely following the issue and is in contact with the Palestinian authorities and Arab states to coordinate the Arab position if Trump takes the step.
Trump must decide on Monday whether to sign a legal waiver that would delay plans to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem for another six months. Every US president has done this since 1995, judging the time not ripe for such a move, and Trump is expected to begrudgingly do so for a second time this week.But, according to diplomats and observers, he is also now expected to announce in a speech on Wednesday that he supports Israel’s claim on Jerusalem as its capital. Palestinian leaders are lobbying desperately against such a move, fearing it could provoke such fury in the Arab world it could sink peace hopes for a generation. “Nothing justifies this act... it will not serve peace or stability, instead it will nourish fanaticism and violence,” said Aboul Gheit. The move would “benefit only one side, which is the anti-peace Israeli government,” he told reporters. Israel occupied east Jerusalem and the West Bank in 1967. It later annexed east Jerusalem in a move never recognized by the international community. The Palestinians see the eastern sector as the capital of their future state.
The traditional United States position is that the status of Jerusalem must be negotiated between the two sides.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04-05/17
Erdogan: No Moderate Islam
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11484/erdogan-moderate-islam
"Erdogan's claims that 'There is no Islamic terror' have left several Islamic terror organizations heart-broken. A press release from al-Qaeda's press office read: 'The prime minister's remarks are very discouraging. We are doing our best!'" – Zaytung (satire website).
In 2010, Barack Obama referred to Turkey as a "great Muslim democracy". Obama should have seen that a democracy is a democracy -- without any religious prefix. He would see in later years the difference between a democracy and a Muslim democracy.
Turkey's strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may have exhibited all possible features of political Islam since he came to power fifteen years ago, but at least he has been bold and honest about his understanding of Islamism: There is no moderate Islam, he recently said again.
This comment does not mark any U-turn, or a radical deviation from his earlier freshman-self back in the 2000s. The problem is that his Western "allies" have stubbornly preferred to turn a blind eye to his poster-child Islamism. Worse, they still do.
Several years ago, Erdogan's ideological-self clearly stated that "Turkey is not a country where moderate Islam prevails." In the same speech, his pragmatic-self -- the one that wanted to look pretty to a chorus of Western praise -- added that, "We are Muslims who have found a middle road". But which "middle road?"
In the several years that followed, Erdogan proudly exhibited another feature of Islamism in a make-believe assertion: Muslims never do wrong; if a Muslim does wrong then he is not Muslim.
In 2009, when Sudanese paramilitaries committed acts of genocide against the population of Darfur, and Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, was guilty of the crimes for which he was indicted by the International Criminal Court, Erdogan simply said: "It is not possible for those who belong to the Muslim faith to carry out genocide." Instead, he said, Israeli "war crimes" in Gaza are worse than anything that has taken place in Sudan. As he said that, victims in Sudan had already numbered in the hundreds of thousands.
In February, at a meeting in Ankara, Erdogan slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's phrase "Islamist terror". He angrily said to his guest, "Islam means 'peace,' it can't come with 'terror'".
When Erdogan (then prime minister) famously claimed that "there is no Islamic terror" in 2010, the satire website Zaytung fabricated a story, the lead paragraph of which read: "Erdogan's claims that 'There is no Islamic terror' have left several Islamic terror organizations heart-broken. A press release from al-Qaeda's press office read: 'The prime minister's remarks are very discouraging. We are doing our best!'".
In 2011, when Hamas' charter called for the annihilation of the State of Israel by means of violence, Erdogan claimed that "Hamas is not a terrorist organization." Instead, he said: "I don't see Hamas as a terror organization. Hamas is a political party -- it emerged as a political party that appeared as a political party. It is a resistance movement trying to protect its country under occupation".
In February, at a meeting in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's phrase "Islamist terror". He angrily said to his guest, "Islam means 'peace,' it can't come with 'terror'". (Image source: Ruptly video screenshot)
In a similar show of ideological wishful thinking, Erdogan has often come out in defense of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, despite international pressure against the movement, particularly from the United States, which has debated listing the group as a terrorist organization. Erdogan said he did not consider the Brotherhood one because "it is not an armed group, but is in actual fact an ideological organization".
The Obama administration sounded as if it were trying to deal with the Turkey it wished it had, instead of dealing with the Turkey it had.
In a 2010 interview with the Italian daily Corriere della Sera, Obama referred to Turkey as a "great Muslim democracy". Obama should have seen that a democracy is a democracy -- without any religious prefix. He would see in later years the difference between a democracy and a Muslim democracy.
But it took Obama many years to see that. In 2011, Tom Donilon, Obama's former national security advisor, said that the U.S. president regarded Erdogan as "a man of principle, and also a man of action." In a 2012 Time interview, Obama named Erdogan as one of the five world leaders with whom he had the strongest bonds.Seven years after Obama's pathetic diagnosis about the kind of democracy Erdogan brought to an otherwise secular country, the Turkish president said that "There is no moderate or immoderate Islam. There is only one Islam." Worse, he claimed that the term "moderate Islam" had been fabricated by the West in order to weaken Islam. From the Muslim democracy to the former U.S. president, with love...
The U.S. ambassador to Ankara from 2003 to 2005, Eric Edelman, said, "We basically have turned a blind eye to Erdogan's drive towards an authoritarian, one-man system of rule in Turkey". The journalist Jeffrey Goldberg wrote in The Atlantic's April 2016 issue:
"Early on, Obama saw Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, as the sort of moderate Muslim leader who would bridge the divide between East and West — but Obama now considers him a failure and an authoritarian..."
The Trump administration has two options: It can either deal with the Turkey it has or the Turkey it wished it had.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from Turkey's leading newspaper after 29 years, for writing what was taking place in Turkey for Gatestone. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Palestinians: More Missed Opportunities
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11477/palestinians-missed-opportunities
The PFLP, like Hamas and other Palestinian groups, makes no secret of its goal to "liberate Palestine, from the (Jordan) River to the (Mediterranean) Sea." All should be commended for their honesty. If anyone has any doubts, their plan means the total destruction of Israel. Thus, as chairman of the PLO, Mahmoud Abbas cannot say that he represents the entire organization. He has no leverage with the PFLP, DFLP and the remaining terror groups operating under the umbrella of his PLO.
And now we come to the million dollar question: Does Abbas really represent all of Fatah? The answer is simple and clear: No. Over the past few decades, Fatah has witnessed sharp divisions and disputes, resulting in a number of splinter groups that broke away and are now openly challenging Abbas's leadership and policies.
While Abbas is making noises about a peace process, his own Fatah faction is inciting violence and calling for the destruction of Israel. While Abbas is talking about his interest in achieving a two-state solution, his partners in the PLO, including the PFLP and DFLP, are openly calling for the destruction of Israel and advocating an armed struggle. While Abbas is claiming that he is the legitimate president of the Palestinians, many Palestinians, including senior officials in his Fatah faction, are legitimately stating he has no mandate from his people to sign any agreement with Israel.
Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas continues to mouth his "desire" to achieve peace with Israel on the basis of a two-state solution. Abbas's ruling Fatah faction and PLO partners, however, evidently have a different agenda: to wage war on Israel until the "liberation of all of Palestine."
In a speech delivered on his behalf by Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian envoy to the United Nations, on November 30, Abbas repeated his commitment to a two-state solution based on international law and the 1967 "borders."
Abbas called on the UN "to force Israel to recognize the State of Palestine based on the 1967 borders as the basis for a two-state solution, and to agree on a demarcation of borders in line with the resolutions of the international community."
Abbas's claim to a commitment to the "two-state solution" is a staple of his talks to the international community. It is just not clear who Abbas represents when he talks about the Palestinians' commitment to a "two-state solution."
In addition to his title as president of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas also holds the jobs of chairman of the PLO and Fatah, his ruling faction in the West Bank. Do Abbas's statements regarding peace with Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel represent any of three these bodies? Hardly.
Abbas's four-year term in office (as president of the Palestinian Authority) expired in January 2009. Since then, he is widely considered by Palestinians as an illegitimate president who does not have the authority to sign any peace agreement with Israel on behalf of a majority of his people. Many Palestinians will legitimately reject any agreement he signs with Israel on the grounds that the 82-year-old Abbas, who is now in his 12th year of his four-year term in office, is not a lawful leader.
Against this backdrop of zero confidence, any agreement Abbas signs with Israel would not be worth the paper it is written on.
Besides, the Palestinian Authority that he heads has no jurisdiction over the two million Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip or millions of Palestinians residing in Arab countries and elsewhere around the world. At the very most, the PA would be able to implement such an agreement only on those parts it controls in the West Bank.
That is concerning to the PA, a self-ruled body that was established in accordance with the 1993 Oslo Accords signed between Israel and the PLO.
As for the PLO, of which Abbas is chairman, it is worth noting that it is an umbrella organization made up of various Palestinian factions. With the exception of Fatah, the largest faction (also headed by Abbas), the remaining groups are emphatically opposed to a peace process with Israel. Even worse, the other PLO groups continue to advocate an armed struggle against Israel.
Take, for example, the Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a famous PLO terror group that does not believe in Israel's right to exist and continues to engage in terrorism. The PFLP never misses an opportunity to state its support for violence and rejection of any peace agreement with Israel. Here is what the PFLP thinks about efforts to achieve peace between the Palestinians and Israel: "The PFLP confirms its categorical rejection of all international and Arab projects and 'solutions' that attempt to undermine the rights of Palestinian refugees and principally, their right of return, in the interest of proposals consistent with the Zionist vision if this fundamental issue."
The PFLP, like Hamas and other Palestinian groups, makes no secret of its goal to "liberate Palestine, from the (Jordan) River to the (Mediterranean) Sea." All should be commended for their honesty. If anyone has any doubts, their plan means the total destruction of Israel.
Another PLO terror group, the Leninist Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), for example, is equally dangerous and rejects any peaceful settlement with Israel. This is what the group had to say in a recent statement marking the 69th anniversary of the "Nakba" (the "catastrophe," a reference to the establishment of Israel in 1948):
"Let's make the 69th anniversary of the Nakba a year to liberate our cause from the Oslo compromising ties, a year of national salvation and mobilization of our national forces against the Zionist project on every single inch of Palestine land."
Some may argue that both the PFLP and DFLP are relatively small groups within the PLO, and that their words are insignificant. However, it is the actions of the terror groups, not only the rhetoric, that matters. With a long history of terrorism against Israel, the PFLP and DFLP will never accept any peace agreement with Israel. How can they accept any agreement when they are already calling for the abrogation of the Oslo Accords?
The PFLP and DFLP are not the only PLO terror groups opposed to any peaceful settlement with Israel. Among the other PLO terror groups are: The Palestinian People's Party, the Palestine Liberation Front, the Arab Liberation Front and the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front. Their shared ideology: rejection of Israel's right to exist and commitment to terrorism as a way of "liberating all of Palestine."
Thus, as chairman of the PLO, Abbas cannot say that he represents the entire organization. He has no leverage with the PFLP, DFLP and the remaining terror groups operating under the umbrella of his PLO. These terror groups would never -- ever -- sign on to a peace agreement between Abbas and Israel.
That leaves us with Abbas's dominant Fatah faction. And now we come to the million dollar question: Does Abbas really represent all of Fatah? The answer is simple and clear: No.
Over the past few decades, Fatah has witnessed sharp divisions and disputes, resulting in a number of splinter groups that broke away and are now openly challenging Abbas's leadership and policies.
Does Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas really represent all of his Fatah faction? No. Over the past few decades, Fatah has witnessed sharp divisions and disputes, resulting in a number of splinter groups that broke away and are now openly challenging Abbas's leadership and policies. Pictured: Abbas (center) meets with the Central Committee of the Fatah movement July 13, 2014 in Ramallah.
Tensions within Fatah have intensified markedly in recent years, especially with the revolt spearheaded by Abbas's arch-rival, Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan, a former Fatah official and security commander ousted by Abbas, is currently based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and enjoys the backing of many Palestinian cadres, especially in the Gaza Strip. Dahlan and his supporters are working hard to remove Abbas from power with the help of the UAE and some Arab countries.
Moreover, Abbas's two-state solution remarks and his avowals of opposition to terrorism also fail to reflect the views of some of Fatah's top officials and media. A report presented by Palestinian Media Watch to the U.S. House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East details Fatah's ongoing incitement and glorification of terror against Israel.
The divisions within Fatah are not limited to the political echelon only; they also extend to the faction's various armed groups. This means that Abbas also does not represent all the armed groups of the faction that he is supposed to be heading under Fatah.
Here, for example, is what one of Fatah's armed groups, Aqsa Martyrs Brigades -- Battalion of Martyr Nidal Al-Amoudi thinks about Abbas's two-state solution and peace with Israel: "We promise our people to pursue the path of armed struggle and the pure rifle until the liberation of all Palestine and its holy sites." That statement by Abbas's terror group was issued in the Gaza Strip on December 2. The occasion: Launching a "training" camp for Fatah terrorists named after Yasser Arafat. Let us get things clear: While Abbas is making noises about a peace process, his own Fatah faction is inciting violence and calling for the destruction of Israel. While Abbas is talking about his interest in achieving a two-state solution, his partners in the PLO, including the PFLP and DFLP, are openly calling for the destruction of Israel and advocating an armed struggle. While Abbas is claiming that he is the legitimate president of the Palestinians, many Palestinians, including senior officials in his Fatah faction, are legitimately stating he has no mandate from his people to sign any agreement with Israel.
Abbas is a failed leader who has missed opportunity after opportunity to shepherd his people toward a better and dignified life. While his words may sound good to some Israelis and many in the international community, we are left with the burning question: Exactly who does he represent and on behalf of whom is he exactly talking? The answer is that Abbas is a single-strategy demagogue whose one goal is to hold onto the power to sell mirages to the world until his last breath.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim based in the Middle East.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Did Flynn Lie and Why Did Mueller Charge Him with Lying?
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11488/why-did-flynn-lie-and-why-did-mueller-charge-him
The charge to which retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn has pleaded guilty may tell us a great deal about the Robert Mueller investigation.
The first question is, why did Flynn lie? People who lie to the FBI generally do so because, if they told the truth, they would be admitting to a crime. But the two conversations that Flynn falsely denied having were not criminal. He may have believed they were criminal but, if he did, he was wrong.
Consider his request to Sergey Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to the U.S., to delay or oppose a United Nations Security Council vote on an anti-Israel resolution that the outgoing Obama administration refused to veto. Not only was that request not criminal, it was the right thing to do. President Obama's unilateral decision to change decades-long American policy by not vetoing a perniciously one-sided anti-Israel resolution was opposed by Congress and by most Americans. It was not good for America, for Israel or for peace. It was done out of Obama's personal pique against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rather than on principle.
Many Americans of both parties, including me, urged the lame-duck Obama not to tie the hands of the president-elect by allowing the passage of a resolution that would make it more difficult to achieve a negotiated peace in the Middle East.
As the president-elect, Donald Trump was constitutionally and politically entitled to try to protect his ability to broker a fair peace between the Israelis and Palestinians by urging all members of the Security Council to vote against or delay the enactment of the resolution. The fact that such efforts to do the right thing did not succeed does not diminish the correctness of the effort. I wish it had succeeded. We would be in a better place today.
Some left-wing pundits, who know better, are trotting out the Logan Act, which, if it were the law, would prohibit private citizens (including presidents-elect) from negotiating with foreign governments. But this anachronistic law hasn't been used for more than 200 years. Under the principle of desuetude - a legal doctrine that prohibits the selective resurrection of a statute that has not been used for many decades - it is dead-letter. Moreover, the Logan Act is unconstitutional insofar as it prohibits the exercise of free speech.
If it were good law, former Presidents Reagan and Carter would have been prosecuted: Reagan for negotiating with Iran's ayatollahs when he was president-elect, to delay releasing the American hostages until he was sworn in; Carter for advising Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to reject former President Clinton's peace offer in 2000-2001. Moreover, Jesse Jackson, Jane Fonda, Dennis Rodman and others who have negotiated with North Korea and other rogue regimes would have gone to prison.
So there was nothing criminal about Flynn's request of Kislyak, even if he were instructed to do so by higher-ups in the Trump transition team. The same is true of his discussions regarding sanctions. The president-elect is entitled to have different policies about sanctions and to have his transition team discuss them with Russian officials.
This is the way The New York Times has put it: "Mr. Flynn's discussions with Sergey I. Kislyak, the Russian ambassador, were part of a coordinated effort by Mr. Trump's aides to create foreign policy before they were in power, documents released as part of Mr. Flynn's plea agreement show. Their efforts undermined the existing policy of President Barack Obama and flouted a warning from a senior Obama administration official to stop meddling in foreign affairs before the inauguration."
If that characterization is accurate, it demonstrates conclusively that the Flynn conversations were political and not criminal. Flouting a warning from the Obama administration to stop meddling may be a political sin (though some would call it a political virtue) but it most assuredly is not a crime.
So why did Flynn lie about these conversations, and were his lies even material to Mueller's criminal investigation if they were not about crimes?
The second question is why did Mueller charge Flynn only with lying? The last thing a prosecutor ever wants to do is to charge a key witness with lying.
A witness such as Flynn who has admitted he lied - whether or not to cover up a crime - is a tainted witness who is unlikely to be believed by jurors who know he's made a deal to protect himself and his son. They will suspect that he is not only "singing for his supper" but that he may be "composing" as well - that is, telling the prosecutor what he wants to hear, even if it is exaggerated or flat-out false. A "bought" witness knows that the "better" his testimony, the sweeter the deal he will get. That's why prosecutors postpone the sentencing until after the witness has testified, because experience has taught them that you can't "buy" a witness; you can only "rent" them for as long as you have the sword of Damocles hanging over them. So, despite the banner headlines calling the Flynn guilty plea a "thunderclap," I think it may be a show of weakness on the part of the special counsel rather than a sign of strength. So far he has had to charge potential witnesses with crimes that bear little or no relationship to any possible crimes committed by current White House incumbents. Mueller would have much preferred to indict Flynn for conspiracy or some other crime directly involving other people, but he apparently lacks the evidence to do so.
I do not believe he will indict anyone under the Logan Act. If he were to do so, that would be unethical and irresponsible. Nor do I think he will charge President Trump with any crimes growing out of the president's exercise of his constitutional authority to fire the director of the FBI or to ask him not to prosecute Flynn.
The investigation will probably not end quickly, but it may end with, not a thunderclap, but several whimpers.
**Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus, at Harvard Law School and author of "Trumped Up: How Criminalizing Politics is Dangerous to Democracy."
Reprinted from The Hill with permission. Copyright 2017 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Contrary to Media Reports, FBI Hate Crime Statistics Do Not Support Claims of Anti-Muslim Backlash
Jonathan S. Tobin/Gatestone Institute/December 04/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11483/fbi-hate-crimes
Although the instances of hate crimes documented by the government are worrisome and deserving of condemnation, the statistics published by the FBI over the last 17 years refute both the Islamophobia narrative and the claim of a widespread backlash against Muslims in the aftermath of terrorist attacks by Islamists.
The myth of a post-9/11 "backlash" against Muslims is politically motivated and spread by groups such as the Council of American Islamic Relations (CAIR), which presents itself as a civil rights group, but was founded to serve as a front organization for the terrorist group Hamas. The effort to persuade the public that America is Islamophobic stemmed largely from the aim to shift the narrative about terrorism to that of an Islamist war on the West to one according to which Muslims are terrorized by and in the United States.
Although Jew-hatred remains a greater problem in America than hatred against Muslims, this would not justify a charge that the United States is an anti-Semitic country. By the same token, it is unjust to call America Islamophobic.
The annual release of the FBI's hate crime statistics report has attracted little attention by the mainstream media in the past few years. The most recent report, however -- revealing a rise in hate crimes targeting Muslims and whites in 2016 -- has been greeted with more notice than usual by the daily newspapers; even CNN chimed in to highlight the results of the report.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions speaks during a Hate Crimes Subcommittee summit on June 29, 2017 in Washington, DC.
The reason for the sudden interest in the report was that its data appeared to confirm some of the conventional wisdom about the impact of the U.S. 2016 presidential election on anti-Muslim sentiment in America. According to the report, compared to 2015, there were increases in most categories of hate crimes. The bulk of them were based on race, ethnicity and ancestry -- with the total number of such incidents rising by 5%. Still, it is the increase in anti-Muslim crimes, which increased by 20% since 2015, that stands out.
As bad as that sounds, there are those, such as the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), who consider it to be merely another piece of evidence that America has become a hostile place for Muslims since the September 11, 2001 attacks – and particularly since Donald Trump began running for president. In fact, the ADL, which has long held that hate crimes are under-reported, due to the lack of uniform procedures for compiling data in different states around country, views the FBI report as simply the tip of the iceberg.
If the ADL is correct, it would be logical to conclude that hate crimes in America in general, and victimization of American Muslims in particular, may constitute a far greater problem than even the worrisome statistics indicate. In fact, they might mean that those who have suggested that the United States is an Islamophobic nation, as a 2010 Time magazine cover story did, could be right. The more one examines the FBI data, however, the less likely he is to reach such a conclusion.
Although the instances of hate crimes documented by the government are worrisome and deserving of condemnation, the report does not actually provide the proof for a widely promoted narrative that portrays the United States as a country in which Muslims are under attack, or the claims that President Trump is directly responsible for their plight.
In the first place, the FBI statistics by themselves do not show the context of the rise in hate crimes and anti-Muslim incidents. What most of the stories about the report neglect to mention is that in 2015, the FBI changed its method of classification. Before then, ethnicity- or nationality-spurred hate crimes were designated as Hispanic or non-Hispanic. The FBI subsequently revised that classification, breaking down hate crimes into a variety of possible categories. As a result, the most recent data is misleading, making the incidents in which Arabs or Muslims were targeted appear to be more numerous than in previous years.
Secondly, the widely cited "20 percent increase" in anti-Muslim hate crimes engenders a false assumption about the actual figures. The total of reported bias incidents of any kind in 2016 was 6,121; of those, 361 were directed at Arabs or Muslims. Although even a single such incident would be one too many, in a country whose population is approximately 325 million – including millions of Arabs and/or Muslims -- it is hard to argue that the numbers are indicative of a "wave" of hatred sweeping over the nation, either prior to or since the rise of Trump, even if one accepts the assumption that hate crimes are under-reported.
Third, and even more important, is that FBI hate crime statistics from the past 15-16 years actually refute the working assumption -- as reflected in the Time magazine piece -- that after 9/11, America underwent a backlash against Islam. Evidence for this claim, both in that article and other that followed its lead, was primarily anecdotal.
Let us look at the actual data. In 2000, the FBI reported 28 instances of anti-Islamic crimes. In 2001 (the year of the 9/11 attacks), the total rose considerably -- to 554 -- but then went to down to 171 in 2002. It stayed at that level for most of the decade, dipping to 105 in 2008. In 2010, a year in which a controversy raged over ultimately aborted plans to build an Islamic center and mosque in place of one of the buildings that had been damaged by falling debris from the World Trade Center attacks, the number rose to 161. In 2014, it was 154.
The claim that the relatively small number of hate crimes can be attributed to under-reporting is implausible, given the cultural climate and plethora of media outlets eager to find evidence for Islamophobia. The lack of concrete evidence to support claims of Islamophobia is due to the fact that after 9/11 -- and every other jihadist terrorist attack in America since then (such as the Boston Marathon bombing and the San Bernardino attack) -- the U.S. government has gone out of its way to discourage anti-Muslim rhetoric and to differentiate the actions of a few fanatics from those of the law-abiding majority.
The same goes for sympathetic portrayal of Muslims in popular culture. In spite of the war waged on the West by groups such as al Qaeda and subsequently ISIS, films and television shows mostly avoid depicting Muslims as terrorist villains. Most recently, the toy company Mattel released the Hijab Barbie doll, in honor of Ibtihaj Muhammad, the first American Olympian (in fencing) to compete while wearing a hijab.
The myth of a post-9/11 "backlash" against Muslims is politically motivated and spread by groups such as the Council of American Islamic Relations (CAIR), which presents itself as a civil rights group, but was founded to serve as a front organization for the terrorist group Hamas. The effort to persuade the public that America is Islamophobic stemmed largely from the aim to shift the narrative about terrorism to that of an Islamist war on the West to one according to which Muslims are terrorized by and in the United States.
The most ironic aspect of the media's often unwitting abetting of this effort on the part of radical Islamists -- and of the stir caused by the latest FBI report -- is the fact that, throughout the post 9/11 period, attacks on Jews have far outnumbered those against Muslims. In 2001, the peak year for anti-Islamic bias, crimes attributed to anti-Semitism were double those against Muslims. In many of the subsequent years, the figures were even more lopsided. In 2008, anti-Semitic crimes were eight times higher than those against Muslims. In 2016, after the reporting system was changed, anti-Semitic incidents were still nearly double those against Muslims and Arabs, with 681 reports of anti-Jewish hate crimes, as compared to 361 anti-Muslim/Arab ones.
Leaders of Arab and Muslim organizations that promote the backlash myth often assert that the number of Arabs and Muslims in the United States is roughly equal to the Jewish population. That is a debatable thesis since in 2013 the Pew Research Institute asserted that there are 5.3 million Americans who are Jewish by religion or consider themselves ethnically Jewish, and in 2016 Pew reported 3.3 million American Muslims. The Arab American Institute claims that there are 3.7 millions Americans of Arab descent, many of whom are not Muslim. But no matter how far off those numbers may be, the far greater number of anti-Jewish crimes makes the charge of rampant American Islamophobia even harder to swallow.
It must be re-emphasized that bias crimes of all kinds are unacceptable, and -- as with members of other religious and ethnic minorities -- that Muslims and Arabs have sometimes been victimized by hatred. Nevertheless, the statistics published by the FBI over the last 17 years refute both the Islamophobia narrative and the claim of a widespread backlash against Muslims in the aftermath of terrorist attacks by Islamists.
In addition, although Jew-hatred remains a greater problem in America than hatred against Muslims, this would not justify a charge that the United States is an anti-Semitic country. By the same token, it is unjust to call America Islamophobic. It is therefore incumbent on journalists and activists to take a more measured approach to this topic, and to cease making a causal link between statements emanating from the White House and the number of reported hate crimes.
*Jonathan S. Tobin is opinion editor of JNS.org and a contributing writer to National Review. Follow him on Twitter at: @jonathans_tobin.
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Ali Abdullah Saleh: The last dance of Yemen’s snake-charmer
Faisal al-Yafai/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
No phrase is more associated with the three-decade rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh than “dancing on the heads of snakes”, his description of what it took to rule Yemen. Over the coming hours, as obituaries are written for the man who in essence created the situation of Yemen today, that phrase will be used more than any other. It is somehow fitting that Saleh will be remembered for a phrase that he himself used to describe his own political success. In a country ruled by one man for so long that the majority of Yemenis can remember no leader before him, what is objective history and what is self-serving propaganda can be hard to distinguish. To millions, Saleh was a hero; to millions more, a villain. Repeatedly, across the decades, he flitted between these two roles. That was his method of control. To maintain his power, Saleh played off groups against each other, always seeking to place himself in the center of disputes, the only man who could bring the warring sides together. To millions, Saleh was a hero; to millions more, a villain. Repeatedly, across the decades, he flitted between these two roles. But if Saleh was frequently the last man standing, that was only because he systematically sought to undermine any institutions that would have allowed Yemen to function as a state. It was Saleh who broke apart the bonds of Yemen's civil society; who, by impoverishing the country, divided and destroyed communities; who siphoned so much of the country's wealth into his hands that young people, hungry for education and development, saw no option but to seek a future outside the country, or else dream of little else than living another day. It was Saleh who made sure that Yemen's parliament was dominated by one party – his party – and that the army was loyal to no-one else but him. If he spent his life dancing on the heads of snakes, it was only because he sought to crush them beneath his feet.
Dividing figure
Yemen is often said to be a country where familial and political allegiances matter – a tribal country, in other words – but Saleh's long rule exacerbated that. Yemen today is arguably more divided, more tribal, than it was in the 1980s, in the early years of Saleh's presidency.
The fault for that has to lie, in significant part, with Saleh himself. After he became president of North Yemen in 1978, he began using the country's money to buy off tribal confederations, bypassing the fledgling parliament. He divided communities across the north, offering money for infrastructure projects in one area, while offering protection to communities in others. That technique proved so successful that he was re-elected president twice more. After the unification of north Yemen with the socialist south in 1990, he used the same methods. Instead of bolstering the institutions that could stabilize the union, Saleh systematically sidelined the south, handing important political and military positions to northerners who backed him, and ensuring that the south, historically the richer part of the union, fell into economic decline.
That tendency only exacerbated after the secession of the south in 1994 was stopped by the north's army, ushering in a long period of marginalization and decline. “An occupation” was how southerners saw it and Saleh, for the best part of a decade, did little to ally their suspicions, fueling the separatist desire.
But it wasn't only the south that he marginalized. In the capital Sanaa, the political party he founded, the General People's Congress, swallowed all opposition, using a mixture of intimidation and patronage. In three decades, there was never an election in Yemen that the GPC did not dominate.
That political control ensured his survival, even as his political decisions impoverished the country. By backing Saddam Hussein during his invasion of Kuwait, Saleh infuriated the Gulf states, who responded by expelling over a million Yemeni workers. At a stroke, remittances, a vital part of the household budget for millions of families, vanished. Seeing the economic devastation, Saleh could have relented, but on this principle he held firm. Even as the country's oil reserves dwindled and in some areas water became scarce, he refused to mend relations with his neighbors.
Beginning of the fall
It was the years of the “war on terror” in the 2000s, when Islamist militias found their way to the ungoverned spaces of Yemen, that rehabilitated his relationship with the outside world. Millions of dollars flowed into Yemen from the United States and its allies, but little seemed to trickle down to developing any institution except the army. The tensions in Yemeni society did not go away and finally erupted during the Arab Spring, in 2011. Millions took to the streets to protest Saleh's rule, in the largest demonstrations seen in any Arab country. Those who had been most marginalized by Saleh's years in power, in particular the youth, the southerners and the Houthis in the north, became the driving force behind the protests, pushing with the momentum of history. Under intense pressure, even his closest allies began to desert him. Once again, however, Saleh reached back to what had been his trump card, seeking to persuade tribal alliances that he was their best chance of keeping their privileges. Assuming that he had lost the south, he distributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to northern tribes, seeking to keep them onside. But still, long-standing ties, such as that between him and powerful members of Hashid tribal confederation, frayed. The Gulf Cooperation Council stepped in to offer a transition deal and Saleh – eventually – stepped down, in return for immunity. That should have been the end of the story and for most politicians it would have been. But Saleh's power to rule by division found one more opportunity. Armed forces still loyal to him backed the northern Houthi rebels, who swept into the capital in 2014 and provoked the latest crisis. When Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition to restore Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi to the presidency, Saleh's allies and the Houthi forces fought hard, devastating the country.
Then, just days ago, Saleh signaled what observers of Yemen had long expected: another twist, a sudden break with the Houthi rebels. “We will turn a new page,” he said in a television interview at the end of last week, addressing the Gulf states. But for Ali Abdullah Saleh, this throw of the dice proved to be his last; after so many years dancing on the heads of snakes, one of the snakes finally reached up and bit him.

Yemen finally revolts against Houthis
Mashari Althaydi/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
The most significant phrase used by “revolutionary” Ali Abdullah Saleh as he spoke out against the Houthis is “revolt for the sake of your unity and your state.”This is how he addressed the Yemeni people, particularly people in the North, who succeeded in their September 1962 revolution against the Zaydi Imamate rule. Saleh knows well which sentiment to appeal to through this call. What has happened in the past few days is going to be decisive for Yemen’s modern history. It may succeed in ending the Zaydi revolutionary phase in its Houthi Khomeinite version forever or for a long period of time.
Can Saleh be blamed for his alliance with the Houthis when he and the General People’s Congress knew all about this Imamate entity’s ideology and its hostile Khomeinite approach against Arabs? WATCH: Footage exposes false claims over Houthi cruise missile ‘targeting Abu Dhabi’Yes he knew this about the Houthis and he was fully aware when he decided to ally with them. Saleh is in fact one of the parties that has led Yemen to its current disastrous situation as he involved Yemen in strife and danger after the Gulf solution guaranteed his safe exit from governance. Anyway we are facing a new and welcome reality now that must be supported in all ways possible as Saleh proved that he is a major player in the Yemeni political arena. Whether one likes this or not, this is the reality, which in part is a result of the last three years under the Houthi Khomeinite security and political governance. This uprising must be fully supported not on the political and media levels but on the military and intelligence levels
Armed gangs
Yemen’s population is in millions, its mountains overlook Saudi Arabia and the country is significant for its location on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The worst threat against Yemen, its neighbors and the world is for the country to fall under the rule of armed gangs that take orders from Qassem Soleimani and the demons of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Therefore, the Yemeni people’s uprising, led by Ali Abdullah Saleh and the General People’s Congress, will have consequences. I think this uprising must be fully supported not on the political and media levels but on the military and intelligence levels.
During his address declaring war on the Houthis, Saleh said: “I call on all the Yemeni people in all governorates and areas to unite and rise to defend Yemen against the Houthis who have tampered with Yemen for three years to avenge from those who united Yemen and carried out the September revolution.”
The man used this rhetoric when he was an active military man within the Yemeni republican forces. He addressed neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, and spoke about opening a new page. He added: “It’s enough what happened in Yemen and to Yemen.”In the end, hope is great, work is duty and caution is a must.

OPEC and non-OPEC pact: An endgame becomes necessary
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/December 04/17
OPEC’s suspense party is over, at least for the next few months as the cartel and its partners, including Russia, agreed to extend oil-production cuts to the end of 2018 and caught the market by surprise by including Libya and Nigeria in the deal for the first time, while leaving Iran uncapped.
This was probably because unlike the wider production fluctuations by the two African countries, Iranian production seems to have stuck at around 3.75 mbpd given Iranian capacity constraints. Libya and Nigeria, previously exempt from cutting production due to internal strife, agreed to a collective cap on their output that exceeds the nations’ current production and in effect means their inclusion won’t immediately deepen the overall level of supply reduction. Still, it is a positive step forward as it reduces the risk of upside surprises to production from those countries. The latest Vienna OPEC and non OPEC outcome reflects a continuing rare consensus with all agreeing that the market is moving in the right direction, but admitting that it is not yet balanced. OPEC agreed to review the deal at its next meeting in June 2018, but one of the sticking points was whether Russia would agree to a renewal of the new relationship with OPEC or have reservations, especially as to what an end game looks like once prices reach higher levels above $65 ranges with implication to the Russian economy, and to wider demand and supply consideration at such higher price levels.
For the immediate future, extending into at least the first two quarters of 2018, OPEC ministers have very clearly said that they’re extremely committed towards getting that inventory overhang down. According to Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih, it would be premature to talk about an exit strategy because OPEC and its allies are relying on oil demand in the third quarter of 2018 to finally eliminate the inventory surplus, but at the same time the Kingdom is open to discussions about how the group could wind down the cuts “very gradually” once its goals are achieved. This was the sweetener that Russia wanted to hear. Russia had previously sought assurances on how and when the agreement would be phased out, and Russian privatised companies like Rosneft and Lukoil needed greater clarity than most OPEC members because Russian economic policy making is more complex, including a floating exchange rate that fluctuates with the oil price compared with the fixed currency peg of major Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Moscow also wants a schedule of how the cuts will end so it can guide privately owned Russian oil companies and their foreign partners about future output. Despite the success of the meeting, OPEC was given an immediate sign of the challenges it still faces, especially from a resurgent boom in shale oil production as the US government reported a large increase in domestic production in September, bringing the total to 9.48 million barrels a day, the fourth-highest monthly level since the early 1970s. At $60 plus a barrel, most US shale producers will become profitable and are likely to be seen as more attractive for investors heading into next year, creating a dilemma for OPEC production unity.
However there are some who believe that the shale revolution and its premise of ever increasing technology led advances has been exaggerated and that OPEC and its non OPEC partners could still wield a strong market dominance factor as researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the US Energy Department’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come.
The studies suggest increases have been largely due to something more obvious: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots where oil and gas are easiest to extract, and that geology is more important in the long run. As fewer and fewer high quality sweet spots are drilled, second and third tier, less productive shale fields will find it harder to take up the burden of increased shale production. This is indeed sweet music to OPEC ears but in the short term and peering into 2018, the organization and Russia have to start considering how to ease back on their successful cooperation and discipline and start thinking about increasing their market share in face of diminishing world supply, the so called rebalancing, and possible increase in world oil demand. As fewer and fewer high quality sweet spots are drilled, second and third tier, less productive shale fields will find it harder to take up the burden of increased shale production
Exit strategy
For the time being, OPEC ministers did not have a detailed discussion about the mechanism that will be used to review the deal in June. In effect, OPEC-plus seems highly likely to agree to a certain three month extension in the current output cuts agreement from March next year, with the remaining six months dependent on the developments in oil prices. The current output cuts could be extended for the remaining six months if needed to underpin "stable" oil prices around an equilibrium deemed for now to be around $60. But if prices are rising too high too quickly, the oil ministers will have to start work on a new mechanism or "exit strategy" in which there would be a "reverse tapering" or laddering up of output shared among the 24 participating oil producing countries. This work on an exit strategy is perhaps the most important new development that could emerge in the months ahead. To avoid the trampling of oil prices if, or when, the OPEC output cuts fall apart against the backdrop of steadily rising prices, the idea is for an equally coordinated “reverse taper” or scaling up of oil output increases over a set period. Much more work will need to be done on how exactly coordinated increases in output would be shared up among participating states. Perhaps just as importantly, borrowing from the forward policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve and the major European central banks, the OPEC leadership will be looking at how best to signal their messaging to sway the trading in the crude futures markets and avoid a sharp downward price spiral that will put their painful road to price stability under pressure. Once again, Saudi leadership in any future tapering down agreement will be essential for success. A key element for any progress on an OPEC exit strategy will be a Saudi willingness to be “first in/last out” in revised quotas, meaning its increase in oil output would come last behind the small increases by the other oil producers, and perhaps to no higher than 10.2 million bpd, or below its 10.8 million bod baseline at the end of last year. All the above is also assuming that forecasted future oil demand is going to materialise, when there are indications that the Chinese demand for oil imports could slow down and warning about an economic slowdown in major Western economies, with some characterising the state of the US stock market as one of a “ bubble “ about to burst. When and how to start the tapering down of the current production agreement under changing demand scenarios, becomes even more of a headache.