English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For  September 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
I told you that you would die in your sins, for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am he
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/21-27/:”Again he said to them, ‘I am going away, and you will search for me, but you will die in your sin. Where I am going, you cannot come.’Then the Jews said, ‘Is he going to kill himself? Is that what he means by saying, “Where I am going, you cannot come”?’He said to them, ‘You are from below, I am from above; you are of this world, I am not of this world. I told you that you would die in your sins, for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am he.’They said to him, ‘Who are you?’ Jesus said to them, ‘Why do I speak to you at all? I have much to say about you and much to condemn; but the one who sent me is true, and I declare to the world what I have heard from him.’They did not understand that he was speaking to them about the Father.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2021
A Message Of Abomination To Father Georges Hobeika: The Lebanese dialect does not make a Saint Paul Context sermon/Elias Bejjani/September 15/2021
Ministry of Health: 844 new cases, 8 dead
Policy Statement Likely This Week, Berri 'Ready to Convene Parliament Sunday'
Ministerial Panel Finalizes Policy Statement, Govt. to OK It Thursday
Bulk Carrier LAMAR is seen off the coast of Lebanon's capital Beirut, on
Rahi to new government: The whole world is observing you
Mikati welcomes Strong Lebanon delegation headed by Bassil
Report: FPM, Amal Clash over Electricity in Ministerial Meeting
Diab Leaves to U.S. despite Subpoena for Port Blast
Over 140 Rights Groups Urge Int'l Probe into Beirut Port Blast
World Health Organization Chief to Visit Lebanon
Lebanon Does Not Follow Its Usual Script/Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah/JCPA/ September 15/2021
On the ‘New Lebanon:’ Long for the Old One/Rami al-Rayes/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/202
A Report on Syrian-Lebanese Relations over the Past Two Weeks/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
Iran’s goal in Lebanon: Push the Americans out, like Afghanistan - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2021
Editor Of Saudi Daily: Like Its Predecessor, The New Government In Lebanon Perpetuates Hizbullah's Hegemony Over The Country; Saudi Arabia Will Not Provide Assistance/MEMRI/September 15, 2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2021
Drone Strikes Kill 3 Pro-Iran Fighters in Syria/Agence France Presse/September 15/2021
17 Pro-Iran Militants Killed, Injured in ISIS Attack in Central Syria
Iran Demotes Chief Nuclear Negotiator
Officials in Bennett’s Govt Dismiss Outcomes of Sisi Meeting
Dbeibeh Discusses Libyan Political Crisis with Egyptian Officials
Al-Sisi Meets with Libyan Officials to Push for Vote
Baghdad to Host Int’l Conference on Recovering Looted Funds
Palestinians Hail Israel Jailbreak Despite Recaptures
Macron Meets Key Gulf Ally Abu Dhabi Crown Prince
3 ex-U.S. Officials Charged in UAE Hacking Scheme
Dubious of Trump's sanity, top U.S. general secretly called China, book claims
US, UN Call for Immediate Action as Famine Looms in Yemen
COVID-19 Cases Continue to Drop in Morocco
COVID Infections in Egypt Expected to Peak in 45 Days
Rival Koreas Test Missiles Hours Apart, Raising Tensions

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/2021
Why Arabs Do Not Trust the Biden Administration/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./September 15/2021
Surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban: Who Is Managing Biden?/Chris Farrell and Shea Bradley-Farrell/Gatestone Institute/September 15/2021
Domestic Terrorism in the US Must Be Cause for Concern/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
The Afghanistan Debacle: Plight and Opportunity/Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
The Taliban controlling Afghanistan is a headache Iran can do without/Hanin Ghaddar/A; Arabiya/September 15/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2021
A Message Of Abomination To Father Georges Hobeika: The Lebanese dialect does not make a Saint Paul Context sermon...
We miss the active role of our monks. They are the salt, conscience and inspiration of Lebanon, and without their active resistance and leadership role in confronting Iran’s occupation, Lebanon’s existence will be in real danger.
Elias Bejjani/September 15/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/102436/102436/
We were waiting with high hopes and expectations to hear what Father George Hobeika would say in his sermon during Martyr President Bashir Gemayel's annual mass prayers in Bkfaia. Sadly the outcome was not what we expected and hoped for.
We were eager to hear a sermon that would raise and ignite the morale and strengthen the sovereign and patriotic Lebanese who are subjected to a systematic misleading campaign aiming to thwart their zeal and weaken them in encountering the ongoing plot to change the civilized face of Lebanon, for which martyr Bachir gave his life in order to achieve it.
Father Hobeika's sermon was in the Lebanese dialect, which Bashir adored and proudly used in his speeches, but its content was flatulent and void of Bashir’s strength in confrontation, will of steadfastness and determination to liberate Lebanon from all occupation.
The sermon was merely rhetoric and focused on philosophers' quotations describing the character and qualities of the statesman which Bachir strongly possessed and used. Meanwhile the most important quality that a statesman should enjoy is his capability to translate his words into actions, an opportunity that was not provided to Bashir to achieve.
What we actually needed from Father Hobeika, the philosopher, is to loudly and courageously present a different creative reading of Bashir’s heroic resistance path, in a bid to solidify and strengthen our determination and courage in confronting the occupier from within, as well as to remain standing tall in facing the international conspiracy against our independence; the two acts that Bashir, and the "Lebanese front" persisted on doing in defeating sovereignty, while the whole world conspired against our beloved country.
I, personally wonder what makes a brave and highly educated monk like Father George Hobeika patriotically back off, and not witness for the truth at a time when we are in the greatest need of confrontation and steadfastness.
Is this the policy of the Lebanese Maronite monastery, which, according to our knowledge, prohibits its monks from interfering in public affairs and politics, in order to preserve its interests with the ruling authority, on the Vatican request, and a tacit approval of Bkerke?
Or is it a personal request from the Gemayel family, who are preparing to restore their past glories in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
What myself and many others fear the most, is that this very low patriotic profile sermon might be related to calculations that have to do with  the monastic elections that will take place a year from today.
Dear Father Hobeika, please note that your sermon is frustrating and lacking the needed patriotic stances, exactly like the void created by your monastery through confining and isolating itself within its monasteries and institutions, while our people are in dire need  of its leadership, help, guidance and directions.
It is worth mentioning that the current Iranian occupation is more dangerous than the “statoko” that existed between the 1969 Cairo Agreement and the 75th War.
Don't you think that the time has come to go back to Abbot Charbel al-Kassi’s saying: “Our people will blame us if we leave them alone, and want us to go with them"?
Dear father George Hobeika, Lebanon's salt is the monks, and without them, openly, loudly and courageously playing their heroic role that they have historically played, Lebanon's independence, sovereignty and existence will be in danger.
In summary, what we need at this present time is sermons that inspire hope, steadfastness, faith, perseverance, and at the same an active leading role for our monks who are Lebanon's salt.
We miss the active role of our monks. They are the salt, conscience and inspiration of Lebanon, and without their active resistance and leadership role in confronting Iran’s occupation, Lebanon’s existence will be in real danger.

Ministry of Health: 844 new cases, 8 dead
NNA/September 15/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced 844 new coronavirus infection cases, which raises the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 615,532.
Eight deaths have been recorded.

Policy Statement Likely This Week, Berri 'Ready to Convene Parliament Sunday'
Naharnet/September 15/2021
A ministerial committee tasked with drafting the new government’s policy statement is expected to put the finishing touches on Wednesday, media reports said. Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said the statement will be concise yet condensed and will focus on the economic and social issues. Informed sources told the daily that the committee’s session on Wednesday is expected to be the last and that the government is expected to approve the statement on Thursday or Friday. “A parliament session will be scheduled for the beginning of the week to discuss the statement and it has become certain that the legislature will grant the government its confidence,” the sources said. The sources added that Speaker Nabih Berri has expressed his willingness to convene parliament as soon as possible, even on Sunday.

Ministerial Panel Finalizes Policy Statement, Govt. to OK It Thursday
Naharnet/September 15/2021
The ministerial committee drafting the new government’s policy statement completed its work on Wednesday after a third meeting and Cabinet will convene Thursday to approve it, the information minister said. “The draft statement will be discussed and approved in a Cabinet session that will be held at 4:00 pm Thursday at the Baabda Palace, and we hope the new government will appear before parliament at the beginning of next week to request confidence from MPs based on this ministerial statement,” the minister, George Kordahi, told reporters. Asked about the clause related to “the resistance and Hizbullah,” Kordahi said: “All issues are mentioned in the draft statement that will be discussed tomorrow at the Baabda Palace and the policy statement will be adopted. There is harmony among all ministers, contrary to what has been said about the presence of disputes.”As for the issue of the banking sector and the electricity plants, Kordahi said the statement “does not mention power plants.”“But our priority is to provide electricity, diesel and gasoline to the people,” he added. Asked about the issue of lifting subsidies off fuel, the minister said the statement does not tackle the issue and that such a decision would be taken in Cabinet. Told by a reporter that the statement’s content has been imposed on the committee in light of the swiftness in approving it, Kordahi reassured that the statement was not “parachuted” and that “there is a very realistic approach that cares about the people’s plight and pain.”Asked about the financial forensic audit, the minister said: “Everything related to the judiciary, justice and investigations is mentioned, but I cannot talk about these issues before the statement’s official approval in Cabinet.”

Bulk Carrier LAMAR is seen off the coast of Lebanon's capital Beirut, on
Reuters/15 September ,2021
The Lebanese government will resume negotiations with the International Monetary Fund while beginning reforms demanded by donors, according to a draft policy program that aims to tackle one of the worst financial meltdowns in history. New Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government will also resume negotiations with creditors over a restructuring of public debt on which Lebanon defaulted last year, the draft seen by Reuters on Wednesday said. The government was agreed on Friday after more than a year of political conflict over seats in cabinet that left the country rudderless as more than three-quarters of the population fell into poverty and shortages crippled normal life. The cabinet is due to meet on Thursday to approve the draft, which will then go to a vote of confidence in parliament. Underscoring the gravity of the situation, the policy program was drawn up in a matter of days, much faster than the weeks the process has taken in the past. The draft said the government was committed to resuming talks with the IMF for a short- and medium-term support plan. Donors want to see Lebanon enact reforms, including measures to tackle the corruption and graft that led to the economic collapse, before they will unlock billions of dollars of assistance already earmarked for the country. Talks with the IMF broke down last summer when Lebanon’s political elite and banking sector objected to the scale of financial losses set out in a recovery plan drawn up by the previous government. The draft program said the Mikati government would renew and develop the previous financial recovery plan, which set out a shortfall in the financial system of some $90 billion – a figure endorsed by the IMF. The government will also draw up a plan to "correct the situation of (the) banking sector," which has been paralyzed since late 2019, the draft said.
Lebanon”s financial system unraveled in late 2019. The root cause was decades of profligate spending by the state and the unsustainable way in which it was financed. As dollars dried up, depositors were frozen out of their accounts. The value of hard currency savings has plummeted by up to 80 percent since then, with the Lebanese pound collapsing by 90 percent from a peg that had existed for more than two decades. The program draft said the government was committed to all the articles set out in a reform initiative drawn up by France, which has been at the forefront of efforts to help Lebanon. The government will work with parliament to pass a capital control law, the draft document said. It also said parliamentary elections due next spring would be held on time.

Rahi to new government: The whole world is observing you
NNA/September 15/2021
In his speech at the 27th annual conference of the Episcopal Committee, and the General Secretariat of Catholic Schools, Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, affirmed on Wednesday that "Lebanon has become in dire need of a new education on the love of the homeland." “Our schools are open to all students in different regions, and this is what inclusiveness stipulates,” Al-Rahi added. Addressing the new government he said, “The Lebanese people need you, and we pray that God will be on your side because the whole world is observing you."

Mikati welcomes Strong Lebanon delegation headed by Bassil
NNA/September 15/2021
Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed this Wednesday a delegation from the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, headed by MP Gebran Bassil.
The delegation included: Cesar Abi Khalil, Eddy Maalouf, Salim Aoun, Asaad Dergham, Nicolas Sehnaoui, Farid Al-Bustani, and Roger Azar. The bloc will issue a statement at a later time.

Report: FPM, Amal Clash over Electricity in Ministerial Meeting
Naharnet/September 15/2021
The second meeting of the ministerial committee tasked with drafting the new government’s policy statement witnessed bickering over the electricity file between the ministers of the Free Patriotic Movement and the Amal Movement, a media report said on Wednesday. Quoting unnamed sources, al-Akhbar newspaper said the ministers argued over the issue of power plants. “The Prime Minister preferred not to mention the plants in the policy statement, to avoid repercussions that might delay its finalization, but the Amal Movement ministers insisted on limiting the naming to the Deir Amar and al-Zahrani plants, clearly signaling that the Salaata plant should be dropped from the government’s program,” the sources said. The sources also warned that a clash in Cabinet between the FPM and the Amal Movement would prevent any solution for the chronic electricity crisis.

Diab Leaves to U.S. despite Subpoena for Port Blast
Associated Press/September 15/2021
Lebanon's former prime minister Hassan Diab left the country for the United States on Tuesday, his advisor said, despite a subpoena from the judge investigating last year's devastating explosion at Beirut port. Diab was the country's prime minister when the explosion happened on Aug. 4, 2020. He resigned after the blast that killed over 200 people and injured over 6,000, leaving large parts of the city devastated. Diab was caretaker prime minister until last week, when Najib Miqati successfully formed a new government, ending months of political haggling.
As caretaker prime minister, Diab was summoned by investigative judge Tarek Bitar on accusations of intentional killing and negligence. Diab declined to be interrogated as a defendant, saying he had given his testimony in the case. Diab holds that the judges investigating the case have violated Lebanese laws that require that as a senior government official he can only be summoned after the parliament approves. When Diab failed to show up last month for investigation, Bitar issued a subpoena and the new date for questioning was set for next Monday. On Tuesday, Bitar issued a new subpoena to include his home address after he stepped down from the premiership. "He has nothing new to say," said Laila Hatoum, Diab's advisor. "He considers that he has nothing to do with all that until the parliament decides the course of action." Hatoum said Diab left for a pre-planned trip to visit his children who are studying in the United States. He has not seen them since he took office, she said. Hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive material used in fertilizers that had been improperly stored in the port for years, exploded on Aug. 4, 2020. The probe shows that most government officials knew of the dangerous material stored at the port. Diab told The Associated Press in an interview last year that he was being singled out and charged while others knew more.

Over 140 Rights Groups Urge Int'l Probe into Beirut Port Blast
Agence France Presse/September 15/2021
More than 140 human rights groups, survivors and relatives of victims of the Lebanon port blast called Wednesday for a U.N.-backed international, independent and impartial probe into the disaster. The explosion of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer on the Beirut dockside on August 4 last year killed at least 214 people, injured thousands and ravaged entire neighborhoods. It emerged later that officials had known that the highly volatile substance had been left to linger unsafely at the port for years, in a warehouse close to residential neighborhoods. Lebanese politicians have rejected previous calls for an international probe into the disaster, but have also hampered the progress of a local investigation at every turn. The 145 signatories -- which include Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, Lebanese rights groups, survivors, and relatives of the victims -- called on member states at the United Nations Human Rights Council to establish "an international, independent and impartial investigative mission, such as a one-year fact-finding mission." "The failures of the domestic investigation to ensure accountability dramatically illustrates the larger culture of impunity for officials that has long been the case in Lebanon," they said. A first lead investigator was removed by a court in February after he charged former prime minister Hassan Diab and three ex-ministers with "negligence and causing death to hundreds."The second, Judge Tarek Bitar, has also faced obstructions, including the parliament refusing to lift the immunity of former ministers who are also lawmakers so he could question them. Bitar in August subpoenaed Diab for interrogation on September 20, but local media has reported the ex-premier has flown to the United States to see his family. Diab's government resigned in the wake of the blast, but remained in a caretaker capacity until this week when a new government finally took up its functions after 13 months of political wrangling. The powerful Hizbullah and former prime ministers have accused Bitar of "politicizing" the investigation.

World Health Organization Chief to Visit Lebanon
Naharnet /September 15/2021
World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean Ahmed Al Mandhari will visit Beirut from 16-17 September, the WHO said. “During the visit, the delegation will meet with high level officials, including the President, Prime Minister, Speaker of Parliament and Minister of Public Health, U.N. and NGO partners, and international partners. They will also visit several health facilities to review the response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” a WHO statement said. The top WHO officials will also visit the newly renovated Central Drug Warehouse to review the progress. The Warehouse was completely destroyed because of the Beirut Port blast. A press briefing will follow, to provide updates on COVID-19 in Lebanon and the health situation and response one year after the Port blast. In its statement, the WHO said that Lebanon is experiencing an “unprecedented complex crisis, that has serious repercussions on the health system and the health of the population at large.” “The above coupled with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the repercussions of the Beirut Port explosions on August 4, 2020, Lebanon’s health system is facing greater challenges than ever before, affecting the availability of health services for an already vulnerable population,” it warned.

Lebanon Does Not Follow Its Usual Script
Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah/JCPA/ September 15/2021
https://jcpa.org/disastrously-lebanon-does-not-follow-its-usual-script/
“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” is a French epigram immortalized by Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr in the January 1849 issue of his journal Les Guêpes (“The Wasps”). Literally: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” The maxim illustrates more than anything else the Lebanese quagmire: caught in an endless political deadlock, Lebanon has become a failed state, unable to provide governance because of its sectarian-based political system, a state that has declared bankruptcy with an uncertain future.
Lebanon of today is an artificial creation of the French Mandate, which, at the request of the then-Maronite Patriarch, added in 1920 geographical areas populated with Sunni and Shiite Muslims to a homogenous Christian Maronite territory. The act laid the foundations of the failed state of today; the short-sighted Maronites became the victims of their creation.Adding insult to injury, the heads of the Christian and Sunni communities decided in 1943 on a division of national leadership positions that ignored the rights of the Shiite community and left the richest ministries and national institutions in the hands of the Maronites and the Sunnites who consolidated Christian supremacy over other sectarian and religious communities.
The resultant imbalance could not last long. Lebanon, the only Arab state governed by non-Muslims, could not resist the assault of Arab nationalism and later the growing Shiite and Sunni resentment. Three civil wars (1958, 1975, and 1983) changed the governing formula by reducing the Christian representation in parliament as agreed in the 1990 Taif Agreement, which was meant to serve as “the basis for the ending of the civil war and the return to political normalcy in Lebanon.” However, this was only a short lull.
The tectonic change in Lebanon occurred slowly but confidently among the Shiites, the most disadvantaged and persecuted community in Lebanon, who were, even before independence, treated as second-class citizens by the Lebanese elites. Inside Lebanon, the Shiites suffered from Palestinian mistreatment in the 1970s and 80s until released by Israel’s military incursion into Lebanon in 1982. They finally rose to become the most important political faction in Lebanon, with the active contribution of their Iranian sponsor. The process of the Shiite awakening was aroused by the cleric Imam Musa Sadr in the early 1970s, followed by the establishment of the Amal movement and the formation of Hizbullah by Iran in 1982. As a result, the basic formula used to govern the Lebanese state has undergone an unprecedented change and provoked the collapse of the Christian and Sunnite supremacy enjoyed by those communities until the start of the 21st century. The assassination of the Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 was the catalyst. As a result of massive protests and accusations that Damascus was behind the assassination, the Syrian military presence in Lebanon came to an end, and former Lebanese politicians who had been exiled returned to the country. The architect of the change was Michel Aoun, exiled to France for 15 years (after fleeing invading Syrian forces and finding shelter in his pajamas at the French embassy in Beirut). In 2005, he signed a strategic agreement with Hizbullah, which replaced the historical alliance signed in 1943 between the Maronites and the Sunnites with a new one that served as the basis of the “new Lebanon.”
Michel Aoun followed the examples of modern Lebanese leaders who preceded him and struck deals with foreign powers to assure their tenure. (Examples include Camille Chamoun, who allied with the United States; Fuad Chenab with Egypt’s Nasser; Suleiman Frangieh with Syria’s Hafez Assad; and Bashir Gemayel with Israel.) In Aoun’s case, he decided that aligning with Iran’s Shiite Hizbullah movement would assure the continuation of the Christian presence, dominance, and rule in Lebanon. By doing so, Aoun changed the political course of Lebanon and brought it closer to Hizbullah’s vision of turning Lebanon into an Islamic republic, a province of the larger Shiite empire to be ruled by the Supreme Leader in Iran.
After its “successful” military confrontation with Israel in 2006, Hizbullah was hailed as a Lebanese and Arab hero throughout the Arab world. However, Hizbullah became the target of criticism and mockery when it appeared it had transformed into a mercenary organization directed by Tehran to fight in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and to organize subversive activities in the Arab Gulf states.
This intimate Hizbullah-Iran political relationship has brought havoc on Lebanon. By 2013, large numbers of Arab depositors withdrew their investments in the different Lebanese banks, signaling the beginning of Lebanon’s “descent into Hell.” Hailed as a hero in 2006, Hizbullah, with its leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranians sponsors, became the targets of vitriolic attacks as responsible for Lebanon’s calamity. Nasrallah’s effigies have been hung on imitation gallows in the streets of Beirut, and in the eyes of many Lebanese, Hizbullah has lost credentials with some Lebanese militias which have even dared to confront Hizbullah in scattered skirmishes all over Lebanon.
Lebanon has become a failed state, heading towards a fourth civil war, crumbling under an unprecedented economic and political crisis, waiting for an unrevealed savior.
Despite its recent setbacks, Hizbullah, however, remains the only power “in town,” having built a state-within-a-state and having become an unavoidable component in Lebanon’s economy, military, and politics. The more the crisis continues and expands, the more Hizbullah dares to initiate state-like decisions, such as its recent announcement of intent to solve Lebanon’s grave energy crisis by importing oil and distilled products to Lebanon from Iran. As is its nature, Hizbullah will seek to fill the void and do the job. In the case of energy imports, Hizbullah’s seemingly altruistic actions are nuanced: most of the oil products will be channeled to Hizbullah’s facilities (mainly hospitals and social institutions), and the rest will be sold to Hizbullah’s political allies or smuggled to Syria.
The silent and acquiescent President Aoun is eager to secure Hizbullah’s political support in the next 2022 presidential elections to nominate his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, the former foreign minister and head of the “Free Patriotic Movement,” as his successor.
Recent reports from Lebanon tell that under the instructions of Tehran, Hizbullah convinced its strategic partner, Michel Aoun, to compromise and accept the formation of a new government only 13 months after the resignation of Hassan Diab, following the mega-explosion in the port of Beirut. By accepting Hizbullah’s mediation and solution, Aoun has given Tehran not only the keys to Lebanon’s political puzzle but also turned Tehran into the kingmaker in Lebanon’s politics. All observers and commentators of the Lebanese scene concur that Hizbullah is the real winner following the announcement of the formation of the Lebanese government headed by Najib Miqati, especially since the formation of the new government represents the so-called “typical Lebanese compromise.” The newly-named ministers and leaders represent the same sectarian equation in the partition of portfolios and are totally dependent on the traditional political parties.
At this time, it seems that there is no remedy to Lebanon’s catastrophic economic state of affairs, a situation that would favor further moves by Hizbullah to replace the functions of a failing state. Hizbullah will be emboldened to assume the failed Lebanese institutions responsible for other fields of neglect: water, energy, medicines, and social services. If Hizbullah pushes to subsume the duties of Lebanon’s police, intelligence, or army, then Lebanon’s entire state structure will be in the hands of arsonists.
Going back to the opening sentence of this article by Alphonse Karr, one can say for sure that in Lebanon “plus ca change plus ce n’est plus la même chose”: the more it changes the more it stays the same!
*Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.

On the ‘New Lebanon:’ Long for the Old One
Rami al-Rayes/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
Many political and non-political analyses have been written about Lebanon’s sick and precarious state of affairs. Some of those went as far as saying that the old Lebanon that the world had recognized as a country of pluralism, diversity, public freedoms and a free market economic system has hit rock bottom. A new Lebanon is paving its path, one that is totally different from that which the country had taken historically.
The current implementation of the Lebanese framework has distorted it. Some are boastful of having amended it in practice, even if the amendments contradict the constitution and go against its provisions, especially since the Taif Agreement’s provisions have become part of the Lebanese constitution. Thus, violating them is violating the constitution.
This behavior is not surprising given certain forces’ lack of constitutional culture, forces whose actions and behavior rely on little rationality and an abundance of capriciousness. It is the same capriciousness for which debilitating and destructive wars have been fought and governments, parliaments and other already weak state institutions have been disrupted.
There are no sacred pacts in politics, and the Taif Agreement is no exception. Every political pact ends at some point. If the time to declare the Taif Agreement dead has come, the danger that presents stems from the fact that political forces have not come to an understanding on an alternative social contract through which we could see the development of a strong and just state that does not discriminate among its citizens on sectarian and confessional grounds and achieves social justice, which the country has lacked since Greater Lebanon was established in 1920.
Still, who said the awaited alternative to the Taif Agreement would lay the foundation for achieving that? Who said that the next phase, during which we could see the agreement buried, will not be one of political chaos reinforced by capricious forces and perpetuated by local projects with regional ties (which, by the way, take from the capricious what they need to achieve their agenda, not more or less)? And who said that the “new” Lebanon would be better than today’s Lebanon, even with all its drawbacks and stumbling blocks? What about Lebanon’s Arabism? Who will guarantee this identity’s persistence over the new decade/ under the new pact?
Preserving Lebanon’s Arab identity is the building block for any future change. Otherwise, the awaited leap is not worth making, as it would be a dangerous endeavor that would kill Lebanon’s standing among its Arab neighbors. It could push the country deeper into the pockets of foreign actors that have their own sectarian projects, plans that, of course, are not suited to Lebanon’s political and societal make-up.
True, the old Lebanese economic system was afflicted with deeply rooted structural issues, whereby basic productive sectors such as industry and agriculture were overlooked in favor of the services, banking and tourism sectors that are shaken at dangerous junctures and collapse when facing major challenges (as we see today). It also is true that there is a pressing need to start developing totally new approaches through which the national economy can be rejuvenated, based on qualitatively different foundations from those of the previous stage.
Nonetheless, what is most important is that what is left of Lebanon’s role is not eaten away because of its severe economic recession that preceded the knockout blow that struck Lebanon on the fourth of August 2020, when the port blast destroyed large parts of the capital, deprived its port of its natural, historical role in Lebanon and the region, connecting East and West.
Changing Lebanon’s economic function has become necessary, breaking up monopolies, doing away with exclusive import licenses, and giving industry, agriculture and information technology (which Lebanon had the skilled labor for, before the recent wave of immigration, of course). However, that should not be done so that the country is turned into a platform for exporting Captagon and drugs and destroy Lebanon’s Arab relations.
If what is demanded is dragging Lebanon into becoming a hub for smuggling and black-market trade and supporting the regimes of neighboring countries at a time when it hardly has the capacity to manage its own economy, then the country is facing a dangerous plot that has set its sights on what remains of the country’s weak standing in the world in general and the Arab world in particular.
Lebanon can become open to the world and a place of public freedoms, culture, thought and literature again, as it had been historically, at the time as it develops a vigorous and productive economy focused on creating the conditions necessary for drawing investment and job creation, thereby allowing society to recover from the suffering it has endured over the past two years, after the national currency’s value plummeted, spiking inflation and contributing to the country’s rapid decline.
Change is possible, provided that it is not disrupted by the forces of capriciousness and transnational loyalties.

A Report on Syrian-Lebanese Relations over the Past Two Weeks
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
Those following the Syrian and Lebanese-Syrian news over the past few weeks notice two tendencies: the first is what is happening in Syria and can be summed up in the following events:
As Russian aircrafts launched strikes on rural Idlib, six of them according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Right Observatory. These same Russians sponsored talks to bring Daraa back to the regime’s embrace. Destruction and forced displacement, which are part and parcel of Moscow’s “diplomatic activity,” stirred fears of Iranian militias and Lebanese militias loyal to Iran replacing Daraa’s original inhabitants.
Their entry into Daraa al-Balad on September 9 for the first time since 2013 ended a siege that had begun early this summer, while the regime had recaptured Daraa’s surroundings two and a half years ago. Thus, the south of “useful Syria” was captured and nothing remains but extending control to the north of “useful Syria,” Idlib. Syrian regime forces and their allies’ advances were accompanied by another event: Amnesty International issued an extensive report on sexual violence in Syrian prisons and border crossings. This time, it is the Syrians who believed Bashar al-Assad and Gebran Bassil’s claims that they could “return to the embrace of the homeland” who were the victims. Amnesty International documented 66 cases of men, women and children being assaulted by security officials, including 13 children between 3 weeks and 17 years of age, 15 women and 38 men. The report was not given the title: “You are Going to Syria.” A more eloquent and accurate title was given: “You are Going to your Death.”
Meanwhile, as news about Rami Makhlouf died down over the past few weeks, news about Rifaat al-Assad returned to the fore. He was sentenced to four years in prison for embezzlement and fraud after having amassed a fortune of around 70 million euros divided between apartments, mansions and horse stud farms. For those who have forgotten, Rifaat is Bashar’s uncle and Hafez’s brother and partner in power for the first half of the latter’s reign (1970-84). He is among the most prominent if not the most prominent architect of Hafez’s bloody reign, especially with what he did in Palmyra in 1980 and in Hama in 1982. His dispute with his older brother was only about inheritance. Beyond that, “blood does not turn into water.”
This is the second tendency: at the beginning of the month, a ministerial delegation headed to Damascus, and before they returned, a Druze delegation that included few politicians and many clerics followed. Some observers believe that other sects and communities could follow the example of the two delegations in what my colleague Mounir Rabih called “the season of crawling to Damascus.” During the first visit, Nasri Khoury, the secretary general of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council, one of the most prominent features of the era of Assadist tutelage over Lebanon, was reintroduced.
Many commentators have referred to French, American and Arab approval of this approach. There are those who spoke of “Western interests tied to Iran” that demand this, and there are those who mentioned the morbid theory about “persuading Assad to distance himself from Tehran.” Of course, also in the picture was the news of the “re-legitimization the Syrian regime through the Egyptian gas pipelines and the Jordanian electricity network,” which is supposed to reach Lebanon through Syrian territory.
In any case, the most prominent reward and the greatest gift was the new Lebanese government’s formation. My colleague Hazem al-Amin believes it is likely that the new prime minister, Mr. Najib Mikati, had pledged to normalize relations with Damascus, and that this pledge was precisely what allowed the government to see the light of day.
The government’s vice premier is a Syrian nationalist, and its culture minister represents Hezbollah. Whoever still has a shadow of a doubt about should Google: Who is the new Information Minister Mr. George Kordahi? From the Arab version of “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” Those performances brought the best out of him. For example, he is an information minister who does not like the media hosting dissidents. More importantly, his admiration for “Assad’s Syria” leaves him blushing, and he boasts about “conspiracies being shattered on the walls of Damascus,” and “the walls of Aleppo” as well. Perhaps he had other opinions about Syrian media freedoms.
Clinging to “Assad’s Syria,” which we are witnessing with the developments referred to above, has, of course, its own explanations and justifications. The horrifying Lebanese decline, which was not a coincidence, added new arguments and buttressed the logic behind them. With that, a note that stems from the heart of these developments must be made; politics has not been as removed from ethics as we are seeing it become today. That is also among the effects of Lebanon’s collapse and Syria’s degeneration, which has reduced morality to where it has fallen to today.
Politics is not morality? True, but it is also not opposed to morality. Reaching this degree of separation is a matter we ought to contemplate, especially with the Lebanese mortifyingly handing out congratulations and gifts with the government formation.

Iran’s goal in Lebanon: Push the Americans out, like Afghanistan - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2021
Iran believes that with a bit of a push, the US will fold up its cards in many regions. Lebanon is one such region.
Iran has a goal in Lebanon and it involves sending tankers with fuel to Syria that will help make Lebanon appear less dependent on the West. Like many Iranian policies, such as enriching uranium, the actual policy is more complex than western media portray it. Iran likes to play foreign relations with a mix of threats, attacks and diplomatic and economic initiatives. It does this in a chess-like manner. Iran openly boasts of its complex multi-layered approach. When it comes to Lebanon the appearance of a tanker or several tankers off the coast of Syria in coming days and weeks, may actually be just the tip of the iceberg of what is actually happening. The tankers may be a distraction. We know that Hezbollah has boasted of these Iranian tankers arriving off the coast of Syria. TankerTrackers.com tweeted on September 14, “visual confirmation: The Iranian handysize tanker FAXON (9283758) is discharging 33,000 metric tons of gasoil. Unable to deliver directly by sea to Lebanon due to sanctions, the vessel went instead to Baniyas, Syria for land transfer. Shall require 1,310 truckloads.” Now we know that one of the tankers of interest is off the coast of Syria. But what is Iran saying? Pro-Iranian media such as Al-Mayadeen are boasting that Iran is evicting the US and US partners from the region through its “axis of resistance.” This resistance includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian forces in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iran militias in Iraq.
An article at Al-Mayadeen details how Iran views this success story. “It is assumed that the US administration’s decision to allow the Lebanese government to communicate with the Syrian state in order to import Egyptian gas was not classified as exceptional or in response to the demand of the Lebanese state that it should be exempted from complying with the sanctions of the Caesar Act.
“Its introductions were not based on an official Lebanese request to confront the collapse that the Lebanese state is suffering from, but was the result of an American assessment that the siege imposed with the aim of subduing the resistance in it did not lead to the desired result,” an article noted this week.
What does this convoluted word salad mean? It means that Iran and Hezbollah waited as the US used sanctions to isolate the Syrian regime. The sanctions had an affect of apparently harming the Lebanese economy as well. Lebanon is in economic free fall. Iran then engineered to send gas via Syria to Lebanon to showcase how it is helping Lebanon.But what was the assessment? Iran sees how it has engineered a collapse in Lebanon. “As a result of this siege, the foundations of the Lebanese state collapsed and its tools weakened, while the resistance succeeded in adapting to this reality to build on it in an integrated project that would bring the Lebanese state out of dependence on the tools of American power imposed on it.” This means Iran handed the US a catch-22. The goal: Get the US to rely on Syria, a regime allied with Iran. At the same time the goal was to reduce US influence in Lebanon. The US has supported the Lebanese armed forces in the past and intervened in Lebanon in the 1980s. Iran’s Tasnim news also spells out the Tehran goal. “In the first stage, as mentioned, the resistance prevented the realization of the American goals by refusing to fall into the trap of the enemy, despite all the pain and suffering that the people endured. In the second stage, with a strategic decision to break the siege and cross the political vacuum towards an economic transformation with the help of the East, it dealt a fatal blow to the enemy. The first action of the resistance in this regard was the import of fuel from Iran and the suggestion that Iranian and Eastern companies may take over the operation of extracting energy in Lebanon.” Iran’s goal is to move Lebanon further into Iran’s clutches and also position it closer to an Iran-China economic pact that has emerged in the last year.
Iran sees Lebanon as a section of the chessboard and it wants to remove US pieces from that area. It cannot use military means, so it will use economic means. This comes in the context of the US leaving Afghanistan. Iran believes that with a bit of a push, the US will fold up its cards in many regions. Lebanon is one such region.

Editor Of Saudi Daily: Like Its Predecessor, The New Government In Lebanon Perpetuates Hizbullah's Hegemony Over The Country; Saudi Arabia Will Not Provide Assistance
MEMRI/September 15, 2021
In a September 12, 2021 article, Khalid bin Hamad Al-Malik, editor of the Saudi daily Al-Jazirah, responds to the news that a new government has finally been established in Lebanon, headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, after more than a year since the Beirut Port blast during which the country did not have a functioning government. Al-Malik writes that no hopes should be pinned on this government, for it is not likely to extricate Lebanon from its many problems, especially from the economic crisis that has brought the country to the point of collapse. He adds that this government, which was approved by Iran, will be just like its predecessors because it perpetuates Iran's and Hizbullah's hegemony over the country. Lebanon will not be able to revive, he argues, as long as it is controlled by Hizbullah and its allies: President Michel 'Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement, headed by his son-in-law Gebran Bassil. In response to Makati's call for the Arab countries to come to Lebanon's aid, Al-Malik states that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are not cash cows and will not help Lebanon as long as Hizbullah continues to control it and to act against them, especially against Saudi Arabia itself. He urges Mikati's government to return Lebanon to the fold of the Arab nation, and to bring an end to the Iranian interference in its affairs and to Hizbullah's control of the country.
Khalid bin Hamad Al-Malik (Source: Twitter.com/1khalid_almalik)
The following are translated excerpts from Al-Malik's article: [1]
"At the end of a long wait, a new Lebanese government has [finally] been announced, comprising 24 ministers… The new government was formed after the Iranians green-lighted it, and it perpetuates Hizbullah's control over Lebanon's decision-making centers, as Kataeb Party leader Sami Al-Gemayel noted.
"The question is whether the agreement on a new government means that the crisis in Lebanon is over and that the country has now emerged from the dark tunnel and the paralysis, which has been accompanied by hunger, unemployment, corruption and embezzlement, and to the [political] parties' [habit of] competing to thwart the proposed plan for preventing Lebanon from sliding into hell. In our opinion, the answer is that the future of Lebanon is in the hands of the devil, namely Hizbullah, along with Lebanese President [Michel 'Aoun] and the Free Patriotic Movement, [headed by former foreign minister Gebran Bassil].
"Lebanon will not return to life as long as [Michel] 'Aoun, [Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan] Nasrallah and [Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran] Bassil hold the reins of power, even if the [new] government was formed following concessions by Prime Minister [Mikati] and President ['Aoun]. It is also said that President 'Aoun has ensured himself a blocking third, even if only indirectly[2]…
"Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati speaks of Lebanon as part of the [Arab] world, and says that it currently needs the help of [its] Arab brethren – as though the Arab countries are just cash cows whose role in Lebanon is limited to providing funds without [Lebanon having to enact] any reforms, and while Hizbullah continues to lead it into conspiracies against its sisters [the Arab countries]. .
"When the Lebanese prime minister says that his Arab brethren must help Lebanon, he probably means Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar, which Lebanon has relied on heavily [in the past] to resolve its economic and financial problems. But it won't happen this time, unless the new government proves that Hizbullah has stopped its conspiracies against these countries, especially against Saudi Arabia.
"As long as Iran [continues to] direct Hizbullah and see Beirut as one of its capitals, and as long as Hassan Nasrallah does not refrain from insulting the [Saudi] kingdom in his speeches and interfering in the affairs of the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] states by inciting some of their citizens to foment chaos and undermine [their] security, I do not think that Mikati's call will be heeded, even if he says that Lebanon needs the Arab countries and belongs to the [Arab] fold.
"The U.S. and the European bloc, especially France, expressed an interest in the Lebanese issue, and promised to support Lebanon and ease the [economic] burden on its citizens if a government is established and if it commences to enact reforms. [But] it remains to be seen what these countries will [actually] do to help Lebanon, for they [tend to] assist it with many words but with little money, leaving the real assistance to the Gulf states…
"As for Iran, it will not change its position of conspiring against Lebanon and thwarting all initiatives to extricate it from its condition. Tehran will continue to extend significant assistance to Hizbullah, so it will perform its role of implementing the Iranian policy of fomenting chaos and instability in Lebanon and in other countries of the Arab region. This is the challenge that Mikati [now] faces, just as his predecessors faced it before him.
"Speaking of Hizbullah, remember that, having failed to enlist [the help of its [Shi'ite] supporters in the Gulf, the weapon [it now employs against the Gulf states] is smuggling drugs into [their territory] in an attempt to harm their peoples. When the [Saudi] kingdom banned the import of Lebanese [goods], and limitations were imposed on this cursed organization [Hizbullah], [3] it began smuggling the drugs through other elements, although it failed to achieve its objectives [even] by means of this despicable activity.
"What the Najib Mikati government must do, if it can, is prevent Hizbullah from thwarting the aims of returning Lebanon to the Arab fold, ending the Iranian interference in Lebanon's affairs, and putting an end to Hizbullah’s control of the government…
"Mikati and the members of his government… are responsible for exposing who was behind the explosion at the [Beirut] Port [in August 2020], without delay, and without shirking their responsibility and laying the blame on some unknown element…
"Finally, I wonder what Mikati will do about the electricity, fuel, medicines and unemployment crises, about the Beirut Port blast affair and the corruption [rampant in the country], and about the issue of the money smuggled out of the banks. I wonder [how he will act] to improve the relations with the Arab countries and to extricate the country from Iran’s control and influence, and how he will handle Hizbullah, considering how much its military might has grown at the expense of the [Lebanese] army and security apparatuses. I wonder how he will handle all the other challenges that have no beginning and no end.”
[1] Al-Jazirah (Saudi Arabia), September 12, 2021.
[2] The reference is to the fact that more than one-third of the ministers in the government are loyal to 'Aoun, giving them veto power over important government decisions.
[3] For more information see MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis Series No. 1573 – Saudi And Lebanese Accusations: Hizbullah Is Operating A Network For Smuggling Drugs To Saudi Arabia And The Region; It Has Turned Lebanon Into A Base For Exporting Drugs And Terrorism, April 28, 2021.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2021
Drone Strikes Kill 3 Pro-Iran Fighters in Syria
Agence France Presse/September 15/2021
Air strikes from unidentified drones killed three pro-Iran fighters in Syria's eastern province of Deir Ezzor near the Iraqi border, a Britain-based war monitor said on Wednesday. The drones late Tuesday targeted trucks of the Iraqi paramilitary network Hashed al-Shaabi after they had crossed the border into the Syrian border district of Albu Kamal, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Three were killed and several severely wounded, the monitoring group said. A source within the Hashed al-Shaabi in Iraq however said that "the strikes destroyed four vehicles, but no one was killed.""The site targeted was near a border post of the factions on the Iraqi-Syrian border," the source told AFP. The Fatah alliance, the political wing of the Hashed al-Shaabi, condemned an "abject attack" on its forces on the frontier. It called on Iraq's government and parliament to "determine the countries responsible" and confront them.
Iran-backed groups, including the Hashed al-Shaabi, are present near the Iraqi border is Syria's far east. The strikes on Albu Kamal come after a drone attack late Saturday against the Arbil international airport, which includes an air base of the U.S.-led coalition that has been fighting the Islamic State group. There were no casualties in the attack on the base in Iraqi Kurdistan. The United States has twice conducted deadly strikes against the Hashed al-Shaabi in eastern Syria since President Joe Biden took office, in February and June this year. Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory, targeting regime positions as well as allied pro-Iran forces since the start of the decade-old Syrian war.

17 Pro-Iran Militants Killed, Injured in ISIS Attack in Central Syria
Idlib, Qamishli, Damascus – Firas Karam, Kamal Sheikho and /Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Seventeen members of the pro-Iran Liwa Fatemiyoun militia were killed and wounded in an attack carried out by the ISIS terrorist group in the Homs countryside in central Syria. A source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the militants, who are affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, were killed in an ISIS ambush on Monday night. The ambush targeted a Liwa Fatemiyoun military position in the Doubayat gas field area that is a stronghold of the militia. Eight members of the militia were killed in the attack. Nine others were wounded and they were taken to a field hospital in Palmyra for treatment. Groups affiliated with the IRGC in Palmyra attempted to dispatch military reinforcements to the site of the attack, but it was targeted by another ISIS ambush along the road connecting Plamyra to al-Sukhna region. This forced Russian jets to intervene. They carried out over 20 strikes against ISIS in the area. An opposition activist in the city of Salamiyah said ISIS has increased its activity in the Syrian desert in Hama, Homs and central parts of the country in recent weeks. It has staged surprise attacks against IRGC positions and regime convoys in the desert (Badia). Vehicles transporting pro-Iran militants, of various nationalities, cross Salamiyah on a daily basis headed towards the Hama desert to reinforce positions there, he revealed. Several pro-Iran militants have been killed in ISIS attacks in recent days in regions in eastern Hama. Convoys transporting regime fighters, including officers, have also been targeted by the extremists. Thirteen regime forces were killed and five others were captured in one attack. The regime and pro-Iran militias, backed by Russian air cover, have launched a large-scale operation to crackdown on ISIS remnants in the Syrian Badia in Hama and Homs, extending to the southern and eastern parts of the Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces in the east. Despite these efforts, the operation has not curbed ISIS’ renewed activity. The group has resorted to ambushes and surprise attacks. Over 115 regime loyalists, including Iranians and Afghan mercenaries, have been killed in ISIS attacks in recent months.

Iran Demotes Chief Nuclear Negotiator
Agence France Presse/September 15/2021
Iran has demoted its chief nuclear negotiator, replacing him as deputy foreign minister with an opponent of concessions to the West, state media reported Wednesday. Analysts said the reshuffle was intended as a warning that a much tougher policy could lie ahead if talks drag on over bringing Washington back into a landmark nuclear deal that was abandoned by former U.S. president Donald Trump. Abbas Araghchi was one of the key negotiators of the 2015 agreement but his role in the talks will now be limited to that of ministry adviser, state media said.
He will be replaced as deputy minister by Ali Bagheri, a protégé of ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi who served as his deputy for international affairs when Raisi was judiciary chief. Raisi became president in early August, taking over from moderate Hassan Rouhani, the principal architect on the Iranian side of the 2015 agreement. The deal gave Iran an easing of Western and U.N. sanctions in return for tight controls on its nuclear program, monitored by the U.N. But in 2018 then president Trump dealt it a crippling blow by pulling out and reimposing U.S. sanctions.
Trump's successor President Joe Biden has said he wants to bring Washington back into the agreement but talks on doing so have stalled since the change of president in Tehran. Bagheri, 53, has repeatedly criticized Rouhani for the strict limits he agreed to on Iran's nuclear activities and his willingness to grant "foreigners" access to Iranian nuclear plants and other "sensitive security facilities." Analyst Mehdi Zakerian said the appointment put Iran's nuclear policy firmly in the hands of ultraconservatives close to Raisi. "In the Raisi administration, the key personalities at the the negotiating table are now Iranian Atomic Energy Organization chief Mohammad Eslami and Ali Bagheri," Zakerian told AFP. "Bagheri's appointment should be seen as a clear warning to the West as it's likely the new team will throw into question the whole basis of the nuclear deal and abandon all of Iran's commitments if the Americans delay their return to the 2015 agreement."After Raisi became president in August, Iran suggested that indirect negotiations with Washington on its return to the deal were unlikely to resume for two to three months. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned last week that time was running out for a deal that must also tackle Iran's retaliatory suspension of many of its own commitments.

Officials in Bennett’s Govt Dismiss Outcomes of Sisi Meeting
Tel Aviv/Nazir Magally/Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Israeli officials in the ruling coalition have issued statements that dispelled hopes of breaking the deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian relations, dismissing the outcomes of the meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Sharm El-Sheikh on Monday.
Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, Bennett’s colleague in the Yamina party, made statements that contradicted with the outcome of the meeting, saying the PM had no intention of meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, neither now nor in the future. During a conference organized by Reichmen University (the Interdisciplinary Center of Herzliya), on the occasion of the 28th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords, Shaked accused Abbas of “transferring funds to terrorists, and therefore, he is not a partner in any peace process.”
When asked whether she supported maintaining the path of the previous government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, by strengthening Hamas and weakening the Palestinian Authority, Shaked replied: “No, I am not in favor of negotiations with Hamas. I think that Hamas was not deterred in the last war, and it is necessary to have another confrontation to deter it.”She stressed that the confrontation “will be at the appropriate time chosen by Israel.” Other Israeli officials, including those close to Bennett, stated that they would not agree to “the release of Palestinian prisoners convicted of carrying out operations in which Israelis were killed.”These statements came in response to Bennett’s meeting with Sisi that the Israeli premier described as “very important and very good.” Sources close to the PM deemed the meeting a “positive turning point in Israeli-Palestinian relations.”The negative statements are an extension of objections that were expressed over the vision presented on Sunday by Foreign Minister and Alternate Prime Minister, Yair Lapid with the aim to ease the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and take practical and field measures to strengthen the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank, in exchange for “maintaining security and calm.”

Dbeibeh Discusses Libyan Political Crisis with Egyptian Officials
Cairo - Jamal Gawhar/Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Libya's Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh will visit Cairo to discuss the political crisis with Egyptian officials and sign several agreements in the economic and trade fields. A Libyan ministerial delegation arrived in Cairo Tuesday, consisting of Economy Minister Mohammad al-Hawaij, Transport Minister Mohammad al-Shhoubi, Housing and Construction Minister Abu Bakr al-Ghawi, and a number of officials. Hawaij chaired the ministerial delegation of the unity government, ahead of the meetings of the Libyan-Egyptian Joint Higher Committee scheduled for Thursday. The committee's meeting will be chaired by the Libyan PM and his Egyptian counterpart Mostafa Madbouly, which comes within the framework of boosting bilateral relations, increasing trade exchange, and concluding agreements in several areas of common interest. The Libyan and Egyptian governments had previously signed 11 agreements to enhance cooperation in several areas during Madbouly's visit to Tripoli in April at the head of a large ministerial delegation. The two sides signed several memoranda of understanding (MoU) on cooperation in road and infrastructure projects, transportation, and health, and in addition to investments in the electricity sector. In September 2020, Egypt's Minister of International Cooperation Rania al-Mashat received Hawaij to discuss the ongoing preparations for the meetings of the eleventh session of the Egyptian-Libyan Supreme Committee. The Libyan-Egyptian Joint Ministerial Committee held its second Cairo meeting on September 10. The panel discussed issues of the Egyptian workers, and the date they will be allowed to return in addition to their integration into the Libyan labor market. The Libyan Ministry of Labor and Rehabilitation said in a previous statement that the joint meeting, which was held at the office of the Egyptian Ministry of Manpower in Cairo, discussed the issue of Egyptian workers in Libya and the mechanism for their entry under the supervision of the Libyan Ministry of Labor provided that it is done during the current year.

Al-Sisi Meets with Libyan Officials to Push for Vote
Associated Press/September 15/2021
Egypt's president has met with Libya's parliament speaker and a powerful military commander as Cairo pushes for the withdrawal of foreign forces and the holding of elections as scheduled in December. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received Speaker Aguila Saleh and Gen. Khalifa Haftar, commander of the self-styled Libyan Arab Armed Forces, in Cairo, the Egyptian leader's office said in a statement. Al-Sisi said his government would continue its efforts "with all Libyan brothers ... to hold the significant presidential and parliamentary vote by the end of this year."
He also reiterated calls for foreign forces and mercenaries to be pulled out of the oil-rich country. Saleh and Haftar, whose forces run most of Libya's eastern and southern regions and oil facilities, are close allies to Egypt. In recent months, al-Sisi's government has also reached out to officials in western Libya, apparently to counterbalance Turkey's influence there. Libya has been wracked by chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 and split the oil-rich country between rival governments, each backed by armed groups and foreign governments.
In April 2019, Haftar's forces, backed by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, launched an offensive to try and capture Tripoli. His 14-month-long campaign collapsed after Turkey and Qatar stepped up their military support of the Tripoli-based government with hundreds of Turkish troops and thousands of Syrian mercenaries. U.N.-sponsored peace talks brought about a cease-fire last October and installed an interim government that is expected to lead the country into December elections. The cease-fire deal also required the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries within three months, a deadline that was never met. The U.N. has estimated there have been 20,000 foreign forces and mercenaries, mostly Syrian, Turkish, Russian and Sudanese, in the North African nation. The presence of foreign fighters and mercenaries is a major hurdle to holding the planned vote. Libyan lawmakers have failed to finalize a legal framework for voting to take place, throwing the election schedule into doubt. With mounting international pressure, the parliament earlier this month adopted a controversial presidential electoral law and said it is in the process of finalizing it for parliamentary elections, according to the U.N.'s envoy to Libya.
However, the High Council of State, an executive institution that among other duties proposes electoral laws, complained that the law was adopted without consulting its members, which could derail the roadmap.

Baghdad to Host Int’l Conference on Recovering Looted Funds
Baghdad – Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
An international conference for the recovery of looted funds will be held in Baghdad on Wednesday, under the auspices of the Iraqi government and the participation of Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abul Gheit. The two-day conference will also be attended by a number of justice ministers, heads of judicial councils and supervisory bodies, as well as representatives of Arab organizations, and legal, academic and media figures. The Iraqi Integrity Commission and the Ministry of Justice are organizing the conference, which will feature joint workshops and the presentation of research papers that address obstacles facing national regulatory authorities in recovering stolen assets and funds that have been transferred outside their countries of origin, according to a statement by the Commission. The conference is expected to come out with a set of decisions, recommendations, results and initiatives that encourage the participating countries to promote cooperation and the exchange of legal assistance. Iraq has been suffering for years from corruption and mismanagement, and often tops the list of the most corrupt countries in the index of international organizations, including Transparency International. In May, President Barham Salih revealed that about USD 150 billion had been smuggled out of the country since 2003 through illicit means. Iraq is a member of the United Nations Convention against Corruption. Mohammad Rahim Al-Rubaie, head of Al-Nahrain Network for Integrity and Transparency, underlined the importance of the conference. “The interest of the Arab League and other international organizations is a need raised by the widespread popular demands to recover the looted funds after the wave that is now known as the Arab Spring,” Al-Rubaie told Asharq Al-Awsat. He added that a report by Transparency International in 2019 found that the volume of corruption in Arab countries reached nearly USD 300 billion, or about 30 percent of the total corruption around the world.

Palestinians Hail Israel Jailbreak Despite Recaptures
Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Four of the six Palestinians who staged a Hollywood-style escape from an Israeli prison may be back behind bars, but in their home town they are being celebrated as heroes. When cellphones buzzed last week in Jenin with news of the spectacular jailbreak from a high-security prison, Abu Antoine dreamed his nephew Zakaria Zubeidi might never be caught. “In the hour after the announcement, we were filled with hope,” Abu Antoine told AFP. “We said to ourselves: ‘If he hasn’t been arrested yet, maybe he’ll be free forever’.”Zubeidi, 46, was the most prominent of the six who had dug a tunnel underneath a sink and made their way to freedom, embarrassing their captors and sparking a massive manhunt. Jenin in the occupied West Bank is a historic flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Zubeidi is one of the city’s most famous sons. During the second intifada, or uprising, of 2000-2005 he was the local leader of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, the armed wing of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas’s Fatah faction. He has since run afoul of both Israeli and Palestinian authorities and, after agreeing to lay down his arms more than a decade ago, also dabbled in theater. He was arrested by Israel in 2019 and was serving time in Gilboa prison, along with the other five escapees, all members of the group “Islamic Jihad”. The jailbreak marked a high-profile embarrassment for Israel’s vaunted security establishment. In Palestinian areas, it sparked joy, with supporters handing out sweets in celebration. There was feverish speculation the six may have escaped to neighboring Jordan or Syria. Jenin’s resistance iconography was also freshened up, with new posters of the fugitives plastered on concrete walls beside the torn and fading images of the “martyrs” of the intifada.
‘Incomplete victory’
But on Friday night, two of the six escapees were re-arrested by Israeli security forces, in the majority Arab Israeli city of Nazareth. The next morning, Zubeidi and another fugitive were also picked up, at a lorry park outside Nazareth. Two members of the group remain at large. All six of the escapees have been implicated in planning or perpetrating attacks on Israelis, and news of the re-arrests was welcomed across Israel. Abu Antoine said the “escape remains a victory for Palestinians” but conceded the re-captures had made that victory “incomplete”.
He recalled that Zubeidi’s grandfather had escaped in the summer of 1958 from Israel’s since-closed Shata prison. Palestinian newspaper clippings from the time, shared this week on messaging apps, noted the “glory” the escape had brought to the family. A fresh Palestinian effort was underway to bolster the heroic status of the latest jail-breakers. Shortly after Israel released photos of Zubeidi following his re-arrest, handcuffed and appearing forlorn, a doctored image began circulating on Palestinian social media accounts showing him smiling. Falestine al-Youm (Palestine Today), the television voice of “Islamic Jihad”, has broadcast tributes to its escapees, highlighting its member Mahmud Abdullah Ardah, 45, who spent 25 years in prison and is considered the mastermind of the jailbreak.
‘Dancing with joy’
A giant poster of Ardah adorns his family home in the village of Arraba, just outside Jenin. Wearing a white-dotted hijab, Ardah’s mother Fatiha was glued to the rolling TV tributes. “When he was released, I was dancing with joy,” she told AFP. “I hoped the door of our house would open and he would be there.”Ardah’s brother Mohammed told AFP he was contacted by an Israeli intelligence officer while his brother was on the run. “He said to me: ‘If Mahmud comes home, let him kiss his mother then call us and we’ll arrest him’.”“I told him ‘no, I will not call you,’” Mohammed recounted, although that moment never came. Ardah was arrested in Nazareth, without putting up resistance, after being pursued by an Israeli helicopter. “I couldn’t believe it,” Mohammed said. “But I thought, ‘at least he is still alive’. And I realized that for him five days of freedom are the equivalent of 50 years.”

Macron Meets Key Gulf Ally Abu Dhabi Crown Prince
Agence France Presse/September 15/2021
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday held talks with the crown prince of the UAE's Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, one of Paris' closest allies in the Middle East region. The two met for a working lunch at the historic Fontainebleau Chateau outside Paris, where the United Arab Emirates has played a key role in restoration works, AFP correspondents said. France has close military, political and cultural ties to the UAE. Abu Dhabi has in the last month served as a hub for the evacuation by Paris of French nationals and Afghans from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Macron also has a strong personal relationship with Mohammed bin Zayed, known as MBZ, who is seen as one of the most powerful figures in the Gulf, along with his close ally Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS. Analysts believe Macron and MBZ are united by a shared distrust of political Islam and particularly activities of Islamist political parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East. They also both have thorny relations with Turkey under its strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even if there have been signs of a thaw in ties between Ankara and the UAE and Paris over the last weeks. "The discussion will focus on the strategic partnership between the two countries and on all regional issues," the Elysee said in a brief statement ahead of the talks. They were also to visit the historic theatre at the Fontainebleau Palace built between 1853 and 1856 under the nephew of emperor Napoleon I, Napoleon III, which has been painstakingly restored thanks to UEA funding. It opened in 1857 but was used only a dozen times, before being abandoned in 1870 after the fall of Napoleon III. During a state visit to France in 2007, Sheikh Khalifa, MBZ's half-brother and ruler of Abu Dhabi and president of the United Arab Emirates, was reportedly so entranced by the abandoned theatre he offered 10 million euros on the spot for its restoration. Now called the Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan Theatre, it has become a symbol of the close relations between Paris and Abu Dhabi. The UAE capital already hosts the Louvre Abu Dhabi, opened by MBZ and Macron in 2017, the first foreign institution to carry the name of the great Paris museum.

3 ex-U.S. Officials Charged in UAE Hacking Scheme
Associated Press/September 15/2021
Three former U.S. intelligence and military officials have admitted providing sophisticated computer hacking technology to the United Arab Emirates and agreed to pay nearly $1.7 million to resolve criminal charges in an agreement that the U.S. Justice Department described Tuesday as the first of its kind.
The defendants — Marc Baier, Ryan Adams and Daniel Gericke — are accused of working as senior managers at a UAE-based company that conducted hacking operations on behalf of the government. Prosecutors say the men provided hacking and intelligence-gathering systems that were used to break into computers in the United States and elsewhere in the world. The Justice Department alleges that the men committed computer fraud and violated export control laws by providing defense services without the required license. The case also appears to be part of a growing trend highlighted earlier this year by the CIA of foreign governments hiring former U.S. intelligence operatives to bolster their own spycraft — a practice officials have said risks exposing U.S. secrets. "This is a loud statement" that the Justice Department takes such cases seriously, said Bobby Chesney, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law who specializes in national security issues. The charges were filed under a deferred prosecution agreement that, in addition to requiring a $1.68 million payment, will also force the men to cooperate with the Justice Department's investigation, to sever any ties with any UAE intelligence or law enforcement agencies and to forego any security clearances. If they comply with those and other terms for three years, the Justice Department will abandon the prosecution. As part of the agreement, the three men did not dispute any of the facts alleged by prosecutors. The Justice Department described it as the "first-of-its-kind resolution of an investigation into two distinct types of criminal activity," including providing unlicensed technology for the purposes of hacking.
"Hackers-for-hire and those who otherwise support such activities in violation of U.S. law should fully expect to be prosecuted for their criminal conduct," Mark Lesko, acting assistant attorney general in charge of the Justice Department's national security division, said in a statement.
According to court documents, the trio left a U.S.-based company that was operating in the UAE to join an Emerati company that would give them "significant increases" in their salaries. The companies aren't named in charging documents, but Lori Stroud, a former National Security Agency employee, said she worked with the three men in the UAE at U.S.-based CyberPoint and then for UAE-based DarkMatter.
Stroud said she quit because she saw DarkMatter hacking U.S. citizens. She said she assisted the FBI in its investigation and was glad to see the case come to a resolution. "This is progress," Stroud said.
The Emirati government did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Wednesday. Questions sent by email to officials at Abu Dhabi-based DarkMatter could not be delivered. Since details of DarkMatter's hacking campaign became public, the company's profile has dropped over the last few years, with some staff moving onto a new Abu Dhabi-based firm called G42. That firm has been linked to a mobile app suspected of being a spying tool as well as Chinese coronavirus tests that American officials warned against using over concerns about patient privacy, test accuracy and Chinese government involvement. DarkMatter's founder and CEO, Faisal al-Bannai, told The Associated Press in 2018 that the company takes part in no hacking, although he acknowledged the firm's close business ties to the Emirati government, as well as its hiring of former CIA and NSA analysts.
Prosecutors said that between January 2016 and November 2019, the defendants increased operations being providing to the UAE government. They bought exploits to break into computers and mobile devices from companies around the world, including those based in the U.S., according to the Justice Department. That includes one so-called "zero-click" exploit — which can break into mobile devices without any user interaction — that Baier bought from an unnamed U.S. company in 2016. Lawyers for Adams and Gericke did not immediately return messages seeking comment, and a lawyer for Baier declined to comment. The Justice Department described each of them as former U.S. intelligence or military personnel. Baier previously worked at the NSA, according to a former colleague who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity surrounding the matter.
The CIA warned in a letter earlier this year about "an uptick in the number of former officers who have disclosed sensitive information about CIA activities, personnel, and tradecraft."The letter sent to former CIA officials was signed by Sheetal Patel, the agency's assistant director for counterintelligence. It described as a "detrimental trend" a practice of foreign governments hiring former intelligence officers "to build up their spying capabilities." Some listed examples included using access to CIA information or contacts for business opportunities as well as "working for state-sponsored intelligence related companies in non-fraternization countries.""We ask that you protect yourself and the CIA by safeguarding the classified tradecraft that underpins your enterprise," Patel wrote.

Dubious of Trump's sanity, top U.S. general secretly called China, book claims
The Japan Times/September 15/2021
The top U.S. general was so worried in early January that Donald Trump was out of control that he took secret action to prevent the outgoing president from sparking a war with China, according to a new book. Joint Chiefs Chair General Mark Milley ordered aides to not act immediately on any move by Trump to use U.S. nuclear forces, and he called a Chinese general to reassure Beijing, presidential chronicler Bob Woodward and co-author Robert Costa wrote in their soon-to-be-released book. The Washington Post -- Woodward's and Costa's employer -- and other media on Tuesday reported excerpts from the book "Peril," depicting Milley as organizing the Pentagon and intelligence community to resist any move by Trump to ratchet up tensions with China or Iran after he lost the November 2020 presidential election. Milley called Chinese counterpart General Li Zuocheng twice, on October 30 just before Trump's election defeat, and on January 8, two days after Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol, to reassure him that the Republican president's anti-China rhetoric could not translate into military action. "General Li, I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay," Milley told Li in the October call, Woodward and Costa write. "We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you," Milley said.
Nuclear strike worries
Two months later, Milley used the secret back-channel with Li again after the U.S. Capitol riot, amid concerns both in Beijing and Washington that Trump was unstable. "We are 100 percent steady. Everything's fine. But democracy can be sloppy sometimes," Milley told Li, according to the book.
To reassure the Chinese, Milley went so far as to have the Pentagon's Indo-Pacific Command postpone military exercises that Beijing might have viewed as a possible threat. Separately, Milley told his top staff that if Trump sought to exercise his power to order a nuclear strike, that they had to inform him first.
And Milley discussed with other top officials, including CIA director Gina Haspel and National Security Agency head Paul Nakasone, the need to be vigilant amid concerns Trump could act irrationally. Haspel said they were in a "highly dangerous situation." "Some might contend that Milley had overstepped his authority and taken extraordinary power for himself," the authors wrote. But he believed he was acting correctly "to ensure there was no historic rupture in the international order, no accidental war with China or others, and no use of nuclear weapons," they said. The Pentagon declined to comment on the book's claims. Trump lashed out on Tuesday, calling Milley a crude epithet and blaming him for the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August. "I assume that he would be tried for treason in that he would have been dealing with his Chinese counterpart behind the president's back," Trump said in a statement.
'He's crazy' -
Milley's second Li call came after the top lawmaker in Congress, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, phoned Milley about Trump's state of mind and his rejection -- held to this day -- of President Joe Biden's election victory. Two days earlier, goaded on by Trump, hundreds of supporters violently stormed Congress, forcing lawmakers to cancel a session meant to certify Biden's victory and causing lawmakers of both parties to flee. Woodward and Costa obtained a transcript of the Pelosi call. "What precautions are available to prevent an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or from accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike?" Pelosi asked. "If they couldn't even stop him from an assault on the Capitol, who even knows what else he may do?" she said. "He's crazy. You know he's crazy... and what he did yesterday is further evidence of his craziness." The system had "a lot of checks" to forestall extreme behavior by the president, Milley responded. Nevertheless, he said, "I agree with you on everything." Republican lawmakers quickly used the reports to attack Milley, with senior Senator Marco Rubio calling for Biden to fire the general. Rubio, a defender of Trump, alleged Milley "worked to actively undermine the sitting Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Forces and contemplated a treasonous leak of classified information to the Chinese Communist Party.""These actions by General Milley demonstrate a clear lack of sound judgement, and I urge you to dismiss him immediately," he said in a letter to Biden. "Peril" will go on sale on September 21.

US, UN Call for Immediate Action as Famine Looms in Yemen
Washington - Muath Alamri/Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
The United States and the United Nations called for immediate action to help Yemen mitigate its humanitarian crisis, as the country stands on the brink of famine, poverty, and disease. USAID's Administrator Samantha Power discussed the humanitarian situation in Yemen during a virtual seminar with the US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking and the Executive Director of the UN's World Food Programme, David Beasley. Power said Yemen is now in the seventh year of a devastating conflict that has left two-thirds of the country's population in dire need of humanitarian assistance. She indicated that the US had provided more than $515 million worth of humanitarian assistance of various kinds, allowing the partners to reach those in urgent need. However, she stressed that it is not enough, adding: "We cannot kid ourselves that it is enough." The director called on all donors to step up and scale up humanitarian assistance funding with the urgency necessitated by the crisis itself, noting that much more funding is needed to keep Yemen from the brink. "We call on all parties to allow the unhindered import and distribution of fuel so that hospitals and water treatment can function," she said, adding that one day the conflict in Yemen will be a memory. Special Envoy Lenderking said that some progress has been made in these efforts, but much hard work remains. He indicated that the US has built an unprecedented international consensus on resolving the crisis in a way that "we've not seen over the course of the war. And we're witnessing stronger, more united, unified regional efforts to do so."Yemen does not have to be a forever war, asserted the envoy. Lenderking said there's broad support for more inclusive peace efforts that build on the solid demand inside of Yemen for peace and opposition to the costly stalemated offensive in Marib, adding that the appointment of a new UN special envoy will bring new momentum to the UN-led peace process. "We can't ignore the fact that the erosion of the economy and basic services continues to drive the humanitarian crisis throughout Yemen. A lot of people who look at the situation say it looks hopeless. I do not see it that way." He asserted that the US and millions of Yemenis and humanitarian workers across Yemen haven't given up hope. They're working tirelessly to care for the most vulnerable and to adapt and find new ways and provide for their families and their communities, said Lenderking, noting that their efforts are having an impact, as they have prevented famine thus far and saved countless lives. The Yemen humanitarian response is less than 50 percent funded, according to Lenderking. For his part, Director Beasley warned that 16 million people are marching toward starvation, adding that with the increase of food prices and lack of fuel, the situation is catastrophic. "We need support for the Yemeni people right now because our supply chain starts to run out again around October. So, we need others to step up immediately to help these innocent people of this war." He indicated that the program operates in areas of conflict worldwide, with about 80 percent of its operations worldwide or in areas of conflict. "We know how to come in the most difficult places on Earth and get the aid to the people," said the official, urging all parties "please don't play games with us. Let us reach the people."

COVID-19 Cases Continue to Drop in Morocco
Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Morocco has been witnessing a steady decline in COVID-19 cases for five straight weeks, Health Ministry said on Tuesday. Head of the department of communicable diseases, Abdelkrim Meziane Bellefquih warned however, that high numbers of critical cases and deaths continue to be recorded. During a bimonthly briefing on the outbreak in the country, he said infections fell from 42,424 cases per week recorded at the end of August to 20,562 last week, a decrease of 52 percent. “The number of critical cases fell by 30 percent, from 2,537 two weeks ago to 1,764 until Monday while the occupancy rate of beds dedicated to critical cases rose from 50 percent to 33 percent during the same period,” he added. Tackling the COVID-19 vaccination process, Meziane Bellefquih stressed Morocco has administered over 36 million injections, calling for the strictest compliance to preventive measures and for more people to sign up to receive the jab.

COVID Infections in Egypt Expected to Peak in 45 Days
Asharq Al Awsat/September 15/2021
Dr. Mohamed Awad Taj El-Din, adviser to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for health affairs, predicted on Tuesday that during its fourth COVID-19 wave, Egypt will continue to witness an increase in infections for a month and a half until the country reaches a peak. During television statements, Taj El-Din said the fourth wave will witness infections affecting entire families. Infections are on the rise in the country, he warned, saying they will peak before again declining. Moreover, he noted that children have been infected with COVID-19 since the virus was first detected in the country, but they have shown fewer symptoms. Taj El-Din said that so far, no child has died of the virus in Egypt, however, he explained they may be carriers of the virus and could transmit the infection to others. Egypt has reported 293,951 infections, 16,895 deaths from the virus and 247,450 recoveries.

Rival Koreas Test Missiles Hours Apart, Raising Tensions
Associated Press/September 15/2021
The rival Koreas test-launched ballistic missiles hours apart from each other on Wednesday in a display of military assets that came amid a faltering diplomatic push to strip North Korea of its nuclear program.
South Korea's presidential office said it conducted its first underwater-launched ballistic missile test on Wednesday afternoon. It said a domestically built missile fired from a 3,000-ton-class submarine flew a previously set distance before hitting a designated target. The statement said the weapon is expected to help South Korea deter potential external threats, boost its self-defense posture and promote peace on the Korean Peninsula. The test followed two short-range North Korean ballistic missile launches detected by South Korea's military earlier Wednesday. On Monday, North Korea said it fired a newly developed cruise missile in its first weapons test in six months. Experts say the North Korean launches showed it's pressing ahead with its arms build-up plans while trying to apply pressure on the United States to resume stalled nuclear talks. It's not usual for South Korea to publicly disclose high-profile weapons tests that some experts say could provoke North Korea unnecessarily. Observers say Moon's government, which has been actively pursuing reconciliation with North Korea, may be responding to criticism that it's too soft on the North. South Korea's military said the North Korean missiles, launched from central North Korea on Wednesday, flew about 800 kilometers (497 miles) on an apogee of 60 kilometers (37 miles) before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the launches, while highlighting the destabilizing impact of North Korea's illicit weapons program, didn't pose an immediate threat to "U.S. personal or territory, or to our allies.""The firings threaten the peace and safety of Japan and the region and are absolutely outrageous," Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said. "The government of Japan is determined to further step up our vigilance and surveillance to be prepared for any contingencies."Japan's coast guard said no ships or aircraft reported damage from the missiles. Wednesday's launches were a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions that bar North Korea from engaging in any ballistic missile activities. But the U.N. council typically doesn't slap fresh sanctions on North Korea when it launches short-range missiles, like the ones fired Wednesday.
On Monday, North Korea said it tested a newly developed cruise missile twice over the weekend. North Korea's state media described the missile as a "strategic weapon of great significance," implying it was developed with the intent to carry nuclear warheads. According to North Korean accounts, the missile demonstrated an ability to hit targets 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) away, a distance putting all of Japan and U.S. military installations there within reach.
The North Korean missile tests came as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Seoul for meetings with Moon and other senior officials to discuss the stalled nuclear negotiations with the North. It's unusual for North Korea to make provocative launches when China, its last major ally and biggest aid provider, is engaged in a major diplomatic event.
Moon's office said Moon told Wang that he appreciates China's role in the international diplomatic push to resolve the North Korean nuclear standoff and asked for Beijing's continuing support. Wang said Beijing will continue to support the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and improved ties between the Koreas. The talks between the United States and North Korea have stalled since 2019, when the Americans rejected the North's demand for major sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling an aging nuclear facility. Kim's government has so far threatened to build high-tech weapons targeting the United States and rejected the Biden administration's overtures for dialogue, demanding that Washington abandon its "hostile" policies first. North Korea ended a yearlong pause in ballistic tests in March by firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea, continuing a tradition of testing new U.S. administrations with weapons demonstrations aimed at measuring Washington's response and wresting concessions. North Korea still maintains a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, a sign that it may not want to completely scuttle the nuclear negotiations with the United States.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on September 15-16/2021
Why Arabs Do Not Trust the Biden Administration
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./September 15/2021
The main concern for the Arabs is that the "humiliating" manner in which the US ended its presence in Afghanistan has sent a message to Iran and its proxies -- Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis -- that the Americans are not only weak, but that they cannot be trusted to support or defend their allies.
The Iran-backed Houthis appear to be be telling themselves: If the US is so weak and has no problem betraying its allies and friends, perhaps this is the right time to step up the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The past few days have witnessed a significant escalation in the attacks of the Houthi militia in Yemen against civilian areas in Saudi Arabia.
[T]he Biden administration had already sent another message to Iran and its proxies when it removed the Houthi militia from the list of terrorist organizations.
"[T]here is no indication that the Houthis will stop their aggressive policy aimed at imposing a fait accompli [Iranian control] on the Arab Peninsula," which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen, as well as the southern portions of Iraq and Jordan." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, veteran Lebanese journalist and political analyst, Al-Araby.co.uk, September 3, 2021.
"Iran... is working to perpetuate a reality in Yemen that resembles the reality of Hamas's control of the Gaza Strip since 2007." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Al-Araby.co.uk, September 3, 2021.
Yemeni journalist Zakaria Al-Kamali expressed fear of what he called "the Afghanization of Yemen." — Al-Araby.co.uk, September 7, 2021.
What the Arabs find most disturbing is that the Biden administration has failed to take a tough stance against the increased Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. So far, the Biden administration has responded to the attacks by issuing laconic statements describing the drone and missile attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia as "unacceptable."
Iran... is leveraging the weakness and confusion in the Biden administration to extend its control more widely.
The main concern for the Arabs is that the "humiliating" manner in which the US ended its presence in Afghanistan has sent a message to Iran and its proxies -- Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis -- that the Americans are not only weak, but that they cannot be trusted to support or defend their allies. Pictured: Shrapnel-riddled glass at Saudi Arabia's Abha Airport, damaged in a drone attack launched by the Houthis from Yemen, which wounded eight people on August 31, 2021.
Is there a connection between the hasty and disorganized US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the increased attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen?
Many Arabs political analysts and writers are convinced that the Biden administration's flawed handling of the crisis in Afghanistan, which resulted in the Taliban takeover of the whole country, has emboldened various extremist Islamic groups, including the Houthis, who are now threatening Washington's Arab friends and allies.
The Houthis have been fighting the Saudi-led coalition-backed government in Yemen since 2015.
The main concern for the Arabs is that the "humiliating" manner in which the US ended its presence in Afghanistan has sent a message to Iran and its proxies -- Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis -- that the Americans are not only weak, but that they cannot be trusted to support or defend their allies.
The Iran-backed Houthis appear to be telling themselves: If the US is so weak and has no problem betraying its allies and friends, perhaps this is the right time to step up the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The past few days have witnessed a significant escalation in the attacks of the Houthi militia in Yemen against civilian areas in Saudi Arabia.
The destinations included oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia. On September 5, the Saudis announced that they intercepted a ballistic missile and armed drones that were fired by the Houthis in Yemen at the oil-rich Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, home to significant oil infrastructure. Two children were injured.
A few days earlier, the Houthi terrorists carried out a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Abha Airport, injuring eight people and damaging aircraft. The airport has been targeted on several occasions in the past. In 2019, at least 20 people were injured in a similar drone attack on the airport.
The Arab Interior Ministers Council (AIMC) denounced "in the strongest terms" the repeated terrorist acts carried out by the Houthi militia on Saudi Arabia. According to Al Ahram:
"In a statement issued Sunday [Sept. 5], the AIMC's General Secretariat stressed the need to hold accountable perpetrators of these terrorist acts and heinous war crimes.
"The Council renewed absolute support for all measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to preserve its lands, facilities and the safety of its citizens and residents."
"The scenes of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan carried many messages to the Iranian regime," said Saudi writer Fahd Deepaji.
"The withdrawal of the US troops reinforced the hypotheses and possibilities of Iran's renewed expansion to complete a project initiated by the administration of former US President Barack Obama to enable political Islam to rule the region".
Deepaji pointed out that the Biden administration had already sent another message to Iran and its proxies when it removed the Houthi militia from the list of terrorist organizations.
"This negligent handling by the US and the West made the Houthis falsely present themselves to the world as a strong party... The Houthi effort escalated and became bolder after the recent events in Afghanistan and the US defeat there. Now the US administration has an opportunity to show that its understanding of Yemen was wrong by declaring that it will not allow armed terrorist militias to impose a fait accompli on Yemeni soil...
"[N]o one in the world understands the terrorist Houthi mentality as does the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has warned and continues to warn of its danger. The terrorism of Iran's proxies is one and indivisible, and the weakness and blindness of the West has not changed towards the Houthi militia and the Iranian regime."
Veteran Lebanese journalist and political analyst Kheirallah Kheirallah wondered whether the US, after withdrawing from Afghanistan, will continue to play the role of a bystander "at a time when there is no indication that the Houthis will stop their aggressive policy aimed at imposing a fait accompli [Iranian rule] on the Arabian Peninsula," which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen, as well as the southern portions of Iraq and Jordan.
Kheriallah believes that the US will not be able to do anything against the Houthi threat unless it takes into account that Iran is determined to use Yemen as a main card in imposing its conditions on the Biden administration. "Iran sees a new opportunity to advance in Yemen and consolidate its presence there," he added.
"At this particular stage, there is an opportunity for the US administration to act and show that its understanding of Yemen is better than its understanding of Afghanistan, and that it will not allow Iran to impose a fait accompli in Yemen. There is no doubt that the Yemeni situation is extremely complex and that there is an unparalleled human tragedy in this impoverished country. This should not prevent the US from adopting a new, clearer and more understandable approach to what is at stake in Yemen, an approach that shows that Afghanistan's defeat does not mean a paralysis of US foreign policy or surrender to Iran, which is working to perpetuate a reality in Yemen that resembles the reality of Hamas's control of the Gaza Strip since 2007."
The Houthi militia was among the first Islamist groups to welcome the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the US "defeat." The militia indicated that it has been inspired by the Taliban's alleged victory.
Commenting on the fall of Afghanistan into the hands of the Taliban, Mohammed Abdul Salam, a spokesman for the Houthi militia, wrote:
"Every occupation has an end. America is now reaping failure after 20 years of occupying Afghanistan, so do the countries of aggression consider this?"
Abdul Salam's threat was directed mainly toward Saudi Arabia, which has been leading a coalition of nine countries to stop the Houthis from taking control over Yemen. The message that the Houthi spokesman is sending: Our Iranian-backed terrorist group will follow the example of Afghanistan and defeat America's friends, specifically the Saudis.
Another Houthi official, Abdul-Malek Al-Ejri, reminded the Saudi-led coalition of the US fate in Afghanistan:
"Countries of aggression [members of the Saudi-led coalition] have two options in Yemen: either they leave by agreement, as America did in Afghanistan, or with no honor, as in Vietnam."
Yemeni journalist Zakaria Al-Kamali expressed fear of what he called "the Afghanization of Yemen."
"It is certain that the Houthis will import more experiences of the Afghan chaos and begin to implement them in the Yemeni territories," Al-Kamali cautioned, adding that it was obvious that the Houthi leaders are "jealous of the Taliban's security achievement in Afghanistan."
"The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia fall under the category of war crimes and crimes against humanity," said Emirati writer Mohammed Khalfan Al-Sawafi, who also believes that the Iranian-backed militia is seeking to copy the Afghanistan model.
"They [the Houthis] aim to serve ideological and political goals of the Iranian regime. The terrorist Houthi militia is not different from other armed factions loyal to the Iranian regime in the region, such as the terrorist Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. All of these proxies practice the most heinous crimes and violations against civilians, whether in Iraq, Syria or Yemen. The logic of the Houthis and Iran is only understood in the context of their hostility to humanity. They are trying to pressure the Arab coalition forces and the entire international community by targeting civilians, including children, in order for the Iranian regime to try to impose its vision on the region."
What the Arabs find most disturbing is that the Biden administration has failed to take a tough stance against the increased Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. So far, the Biden administration has responded to the attacks by issuing laconic statements describing the drone and missile attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia as "unacceptable."
Iran, the Houthis and the Taliban must be laughing uncontrollably as they watch the Biden administration blunder the situation in Afghanistan and Yemen. At stake here is not only the credibility of the US, but the security and stability of America's Arab allies and friends who have been left alone to face Iran -- which is leveraging the weakness and confusion in the Biden administration to extend its control more widely.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban: Who Is Managing Biden?
Chris Farrell and Shea Bradley-Farrell/Gatestone Institute/September 15/2021
As we bear the humiliation of Biden's surrender, remember: the United States has the power to affect whatever it wishes.... It is only a question of political will. Deadlines, such as the artificial August 31st withdrawal from Afghanistan, mean absolutely nothing if we do not wish it.
The US could financially squeeze Pakistan -- the country that has harbored and funded the Taliban for two decades -- and change the entire operating environment in Afghanistan. Overnight, the circumstances could have be reversed 180 degrees at 100 mph -- yet, for this administration, it seemed not "desirable."
Nothing was "missed." .... Similar deceit and double-talk have surrounded Biden's crisis and national security disaster at our southern border.
Are we to expect to be lied to, placated, deceived, or misdirected by our administration?
WWII was predicated on an unconditional "war guarantee" by France and Britain to defend Poland, should any country attack Poland.... At the end of WWII, who got Poland as a war prize? Stalin. Thanks, FDR. Twenty years of combat following the Taliban/al Qaeda attacks of 9/11, and to whom does Biden surrender Afghanistan? The Taliban. Thanks, Joe.
We have witnessed the collapse of U.S, political and moral will to continue in Afghanistan and pretty much anywhere else in the world. As we bear the humiliation of President Joe Biden's surrender, remember: the United States has the power to affect whatever it wishes.... It is only a question of political will.
"America is back!" President Joe Biden declared, in February 2021.
If so, what happened?
The last eight months have been a rolling U.S. disaster domestically and internationally. We have witnessed the collapse of U.S, political and moral will to continue in Afghanistan and pretty much anywhere else in the world. Given the daily headlines of the last two weeks, what is the Biden administration's message for Israel, Taiwan, Ukraine, and South Korea? Not to mention, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Mexico?
The most disturbing part is that apparently SOMEONE in the US government -- or someone whose hands are on the levers of the organs of the state -- wants it exactly this way. It is not random, an accident, or a mistake. "They" want a return to the "managed decline" that served as the hallmark of the Obama administration's eight-year-long "fundamental transformation" of America. Given President Biden's apparent decline in mental acuity, we are compelled to conclude that whoever is REALLY in power in the United States is not Biden. This is a planned, coherent (NOT BIDEN) strategy. Biden is weak.
As we bear the humiliation of Biden's surrender, remember: the United States has the power to affect whatever it wishes. Truly it does. It is only a question of political will. Deadlines, such as the artificial August 31st withdrawal from Afghanistan, mean absolutely nothing if we do not wish it. The US could financially squeeze Pakistan -- the country that has harbored and funded the Taliban for two decades -- and change the entire operating environment in Afghanistan. Overnight, the circumstances could have be reversed 180 degrees at 100 mph -- yet, for this administration, it seemed not "desirable."
None of the disastrous Afghan developments was a surprise for the Biden administration. While leaders from the Pentagon and Intelligence Community lied to Congress this spring and summer about the viability and sustainability of the Afghan government against the Taliban, the very same U.S. intelligence and defense agencies watched the entire Taliban resurgent progression and saga unfold – for months and months – and in some instances accurately warned the Biden administration of a rapid collapse. Nothing was "missed." One should openly laugh at people making that preposterous claim. Similar deceit and double-talk have surrounded Biden's crisis and national security disaster at our southern border.
Are we to expect to be lied to, placated, deceived, or misdirected by our administration? Let us ponder how the Biden administration explains and communicates the unpleasant facts about the Afghan collapse. Biden himself publicly admits that he is not in charge of when and where he can take questions from the news media. Historically, Biden's public statements and performances remind us of FDR in the last 18-months of his presidency. Lapses, confusion, rambling incoherence. FDR had Harry Hopkins, Admiral William Leahy and Alger Hiss to manage his decline and the consequences of Yalta. So who manages Biden?
Unfortunately Afghanistan is not an isolated case. There is an American historical litany of betrayal -- wherein US allies and dependencies have been traded-away, forgotten, dismissed and neglected -- stretching back to FDR's weak, pathetic performance at Yalta. WWII was predicated on an unconditional "war guarantee" by France and Britain to defend Poland, should any country attack Poland. Nazi Germany and Stalin's Soviet Union invaded Poland. At the end of WWII, who got Poland as a war prize? Stalin. Thanks, FDR. Twenty years of combat following the Taliban/al Qaeda attacks of 9/11, and to whom does Biden surrender Afghanistan? The Taliban. Thanks, Joe.
President Jimmy Carter gave a speech back in 1979 about America's psyche that describes the threat of "managed decline" to our country today. It was called the "National Malaise" speech. Carter said:
"The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our Nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America...."
We are slouching towards another national malaise. It is the Anti-MAGA Era.
How could the disasters of the past eight months have happened? Who made the decisions? Who failed? And where is their accountability?
Why does everyone, supposedly "in-charge," walk away with double-talk, pathetic excuses, retirement payments and appointments to corporate boards? Can the betrayal of the principles of our country be reduced to partisan lies and soundbites of feigned outrage?
These injustices make ordinary, tax-paying Americans frustrated and angry. They are watching their country come apart at the seams -- domestically and internationally -- and they abhor it.
*Chris Farrell is Director of Investigations at Judicial Watch and Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
*Shea Bradley-Farrell, Ph.D. is President of Counterpoint Institute for Policy, Research, and Education (CIPRE) and Affiliated Faculty and Policy Fellow at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government.
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Domestic Terrorism in the US Must Be Cause for Concern
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
The reason America appears weak, especially in the Middle East, is because America is reluctant to use military force in the region. And although the war in Afghanistan was a failure in many ways, the reason American is less willing to use military force in the Middle East is in part a result of the success in the “war on terror.”I know my conclusion will surprise some readers but it is important to remember that for Americans inside the United States the last 20 years have not seen a new wave of attacks from foreign terrorists. That is a success. Since September 11, there was only one terror attack inside the United States that came from orders from the al-Qaeda organization. (The attack at the naval base in Pensacola, Florida in December 2019 killed three Americans, and the orders according to the Federal Bureau of Investigations – the FBI – came from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.)
Without any major terror attacks inside America, public opinion is less worried about terrorism. According to an early September 2021 opinion survey from the Gallup organization, only 36 percent of Americans worry about being a victim of a terror attack, compared to 58 percent in September 2001. An opinion survey in February 2021 from the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations showed that only ten percent of Democrats and 15 percent of Republicans thought that foreign terrorist organizations are the biggest threat to American security. People more often pointed to China, Russia or the Covid pandemic.
I must acknowledge here that the American media has said little about the tens of thousands of civilians we killed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and other countries in this war on terrorism.
But Americans usually don’t pay attention to the world abroad, and in comparison to 20 years ago, they worry less about a huge new foreign terrorist attack and worry more about domestic terrorism and especially rightist extremists.
According to a report last week from the New American research institute in Washington, since September 11 domestic terrorists who claimed to have “jihadi” goals killed 107 Americans in attacks and with one exception all those killers were American citizens or had an American green card and were not working under orders from outside the country. Meanwhile, after September 11 rightist extremists, especially white supremacist militias, have killed 114 inside the United States. In March this year President Biden’s Secretary of Homeland Security said that domestic extremism is the biggest terrorism threat for the United States. The January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol building in Washington shined a light on these right-wing extremists again after they killed dozens in attacks in Texas, Pennsylvania and other states.
While the Biden administration was preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan last spring it was also beginning to implement a new strategy to confront domestic extremists. In June, the American Attorney General announced that the Department of Justice arrested 480 persons connected to the January 6 attack and was pursuing hundreds of criminal cases in the court system. The Attorney General, the highest legal official in the US, said that while the American government cannot forget about international terrorism it must respond to domestic terrorism with the same energy and determination.
That is a difficult mission because America is so divided. According to the February 2021 Chicago opinion survey, 47 percent of Democrats consider domestic extremism the biggest threat in America but only three percent of Republicans agree. The Republican Party in Washington resists investigations into the January 6 attack and many Republican leaders refuse to call the attackers terrorists or even extremists.
American politicians and the public accepted restrictions on freedoms after the September 11 attack in order to confront foreign terrorist organizations. The federal government’s authority to conduct secret surveillance on citizens expanded in a huge way. This surveillance disrupted some terrorist attacks, but that authority also reduced trust in government, especially among American conservatives.
A Pew organization survey showed that 60 percent of Americans trusted their government after September 11, but only 25 percent still trusted it in April 2021. It will be harder to mobilize a strong response against American extremists and reduce recruitment if there is a lack of trust in the government.
Former President Bush said last Saturday that domestic extremists are not from the same culture as the al-Qaeda attackers of September 11 but they are “children of the same foul spirit.” Bush urged national unity, and Democrats applauded his statement. However, several supporters of former President Trump who are now in election campaigns immediately rejected it. And the police in Washington are redeploying fences at the Capitol building before a September 18 rightist demonstration in Washington that will show support for the accused in the January 6 attack.

The Afghanistan Debacle: Plight and Opportunity
Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2021
Much has already been said and much more will be written about the US debacle in Afghanistan. Some of it is objective, seeking to understand the failure of US policies of multiple administrations over many decades. But also some of the analysis, has and will in future, fall victim to the partisan politics that have polarized US society in the past decades.
For Americans, lessons learnt will take years, caught in a back and forth between the liberal interventionists, neoconservatives, isolationists, liberal internationalists, idealists and realists.
For the international community, it will be about how to manage the relationship with a declining US, the superpower that has lost its hegemony over the world.
Actually, the debacle in Afghanistan is a failure of the entire American system. It is a failure on many levels. Political, military, intelligence, coordination, communication, the list appears to be never ending. But it is essentially a failure of America’s foreign policy establishment at both prediction and policymaking. It is also a failure in understanding the history and culture of the countries in which the US decides to intervene. Primarily a failure to connect with the people who live in the country and to largely depend on guidance from diaspora. But more importantly the more tragic failure is binding the policy of humanitarian intervention to delusions of military might.
At the end of the day America pursues its interests with little consideration to its friends and allies. Moreover, Afghanistan represents a blow to US credibility and prestige. It confirms that American security guarantees cannot be relied upon.
What is important to us in the Arab world is what conclusions we can draw from this colossal American failure. Particularly the implications for our relations with the US as well as its ramifications for our individual and collective security. I say that because many Arab countries have come to depend, one way or the other on the US for their security.
If the US will not commit to a fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, where it invested blood and money for two decades, there will be a question mark over whether America will be willing to go the extra mile in helping the Arab countries in safeguarding their security against Iran, Turkey and Israel.
While the Afghanistan debacle represents a crisis in US leadership and credibility, it also represents a looming one for the Arab states. But in every crisis, there is an opportunity. We should therefore look ahead and create the opportunity to promote our interests.
In 1975 after the Vietnam debacle, the US strove to reassert itself and shore up its credibility internationally and particularly with its allies. There is no reason it will not try to do so again. The focus of its attention in the 1970’s was the Middle East. During the closing chapters of the Vietnam war between 1973-1975 and amidst an internal crisis caused by Watergate, the Nixon administration capitalized on the 1973 Arab- Israeli war to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East.
Clearly 2021 is not the 1970s and1980s. The Cold War is long gone; China is an ascending power, including in the Middle East; the relationship between the Arab states and Israel has changed; Iran and Turkey have become regional powers that need to be reckoned with; the Arab core has undergone a fundamental shift; and political Islam has evolved in a manner that threatens the nation state model in the region. Moreover, the Middle East no longer holds the same strategic value to the US as it did in the 1970s.
There can therefore be an argument that because of these fundamental changes, there is nothing the US can or should do. But on the other hand, this also poses a challenge and an opportunity for the US to prove that its most fundamental strength, the ability to adapt and improvise, is still basically intact.
Afghanistan, because of its likely impact on the Middle East, could very well make the latter the focus of attention of the international community when it assesses the ability of the US to remain relevant and effective. I also believe that America’s efforts to revive the settlement of crises in the Middle East will allow it to show the necessary focus in dealing with what it perceives as threats from China and other issues.
Arab countries, along with others, including the US allies in Europe and Asia, will have to reassess their national security strategy. Their diminishing confidence in the US will multiply if Washington is unable to show leadership in charting a way forward in ensuring the security and stability of the region. This time round the US has neither the political will nor the capability to do it on its own. But it can, with Arab support, chart the way forward.
The recent visit of the secretaries of defense and state to Qatar, while important, will not suffice to shore up US credibility. Concrete action is necessary.
It is one thing for the US to accept Taliban rule in Afghanistan, a fairly isolated and weak country and, it is entirely different to acquiesce to the imposition, in one way or the other, of Islamist rule in Arab countries. It is also one thing to cooperate with Turkey in mitigating the disastrous consequences of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and it is entirely a different matter to be perceived as a supporter of Turkey’s designs in the Middle East.
Syria, Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can provide the testing ground for US intentions. Washington will need to prove in deed that it does not share Ankara’s dream of rule in the region. It will also need to factor in Arab security concerns in the process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal. Moreover, it will need to demonstrate that it will deliver on Arab and particularly Palestinian rights.
At the same time, Arab countries have to convince Washington that the future of relations hinges on how much it is committed to addressing Arab security concerns. Failure to do so will leave Arab countries even more convinced that they need to look elsewhere to secure their rights and interests.
The US has two choices in the Middle East: It can accelerate its withdrawal from the region and leave it to its fate or it can quickly learn the lessons of not only Afghanistan and Vietnam, but Iraq, Syria and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and offer new horizons in cooperating with the players in the Middle East to find solutions to the crises that have for so long plagued the region. This would set in motion a process for a regional security system.
At the end of the day, it will have to bear the consequences of its decision. The Middle East always has its way of imposing itself not only on the US but the rest of the world.
The first step in this regard is for Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the GCC countries to initiate an open and frank dialogue on the security threats that face them.

The Taliban controlling Afghanistan is a headache Iran can do without
Hanin Ghaddar/A; Arabiya/September 15/2021
Iran is feeling the heat coming from Kabul. Divisions among political camps, contradictory statements, anti-Taliban protests, confusion and anxiety all underline official statements coming from Tehran, signaling that the regime has not yet made up its mind about where it sits with the Taliban running Afghanistan.
No matter what happens, the Taliban is not good for the Iranian regime. Although Tehran has welcomed the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, it faces a distressing situation. The main concern is security, but the economy is also a worry, one that will force the regime to compromise.
The best-case scenario was expressed by Iran’s former foreign Minister, Mahammad Javad Zarif, when he stressed his country’s desire to see an Islamic participatory government – similar to the Lebanese “National Unity Government” that was formed after Hezbollah forced itself on Lebanon’s political scene in 2008. With a participatory government, Tehran can increase its influence through Shia and Persian groups in Afghanistan. Iran has played this game very well in the region, with success in Lebanon. A gradual and determined approach to make inroads into the political system through political alliances will eventually bring power and protection to its militias. Iran already has political allies and military groups in Afghanistan that it can leverage. The Fatemiyoun is one. Formed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at the beginning of the war in Syria in 2012, it has almost 15,000 fighters. Iran could use the Fatemiyoun and other factions to infiltrate the political scene in Afghanistan. The militia has already called for the establishment of a participatory Islamic government in the country. Including the militia itself in the government is close to impossible so Tehran will urge the Taliban to eventually accept an approach that will include Shia figures and allies. This would safeguard Iran’s security and economic interests, for the moment.
Last week, two days after the Taliban announced the formation of the new Afghan government, which was dominated by its old guard without any Shia representation, Zarif condemned in a tweet the Taliban for what he called “a horrifying strategic mistake.”“No one – domestic or alien – can rule the valiant people of Afghanistan by force. Three superpowers failed miserably. So will any other claimant to coercive authority,” he said in the same tweet. “Time to engage and include before tides change again.” In a tweet a day earlier, Iran’s security chief Ali Shamkhani also expressed concern over “ignoring the need for inclusive government,” and urged for dialogue aimed at representing the different ethnic and social groups in Afghanistan.
Despite this unfortunate twist, Tehran will continue rapprochement in order to avoid immediate conflict. When it passes this crossroad, its approach will probably become more aggressive, especially as they see the US withdrawing militarily and diplomatically from the region. The regime already feels emboldened by this new reality and with the shift in US foreign policy and priorities.
However, this approach is riddled with many challenges. Last year, Iranian exports to Afghanistan were worth at least $2.3 billion, but it has been reported that trade between the two countries has stopped since the Taliban took over.
This will also affect Iran’s other economic interests, such as gasoline exports, water agreements, and cross-border drug smuggling. Iran’s economic interests will suffer greatly as security and stability deteriorate.
If the Taliban were disinclined to follow Iran’s wish for inclusivity, and Iran’s economic interests are affected by Afghanistan's new government Tehran will follow a different strategy. For example, the Fatimyoun militia could be deployed, for intelligence, political and potentially military confrontation.
With a similar strategy employed in Iraq, Iran supports Shia militias and allies, and eventually enters into confrontation with opponents with the objective of garnering power and hegemony.
Pursuing this method to tackle the Taliban will mean a major distraction for Iran, and one that requires resources, focus and bandwidth. With Iran’s current regional fatigue and economic crisis, the prospect of another proxy war is problematic for a country already weak and with depleted resources. Iran will try to avoid conflict. Tehran will accept the non-inclusive new government in Kabul because it has no option, but will continue to reach out via intermediaries in Qatar, Russia and China. No one has perfected strategic patience that can compare with Iran, regardless if it causes internal political and economic turmoil.
If Iran’s history of political and military operations in the region is indicative, it will try to vigorously gain more influence in Afghanistan, through local and international allies, but it will do so while play-acting diplomacy and goodwill. In any case, Afghanistan is a challenge Tehran needs to deal with, and in the best-case scenario, it will be exhausting.