LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 28/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
For three years I have come looking for fruit on
this fig tree, and still I find none. Cut it down! Why should it be wasting the
soil
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 13/06-09/:”Then Jesus told
this parable: ‘A man had a fig tree planted in his vineyard; and he came looking
for fruit on it and found none. So he said to the gardener, “See here! For three
years I have come looking for fruit on this fig tree, and still I find none. Cut
it down! Why should it be wasting the soil?”He replied, “Sir, let it alone for
one more year, until I dig round it and put manure on it. If it bears fruit next
year, well and good; but if not, you can cut it down.” ’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on September 27-28/2019
Report: Concerns Rise over ‘Shortage’ in Dollar Reserves
Aoun Says Lebanon Safe Despite Currency Crisis
Lebanon’s Currency Crisis Sparks Jitters
Bassil: Domestic Partners Conspiring against Lebanon and its Economy
Gas Stations Suspend Strike over Dollar 'Shortage'
Hariri Pays Tribute to Chirac
Lebanese Clear Civil War-Era Mines from Famed Cedar Forests
Repercussions of high-interest rates on Lebanon and its economy
The smuggling of dollars into Syria
Aoun blames dollar crisis on “external pressures”
IBEF celebrates trade between Italy and Lebanon
New Indictment Adds to Evidence of Hezbollah Terrorist Activities in the U.S.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on September 27-28/2019
The IDF mulls pre-emptive strike to ward off planned Iranian attacks on the UAE
and Israel
Trump says US will not lift sanctions on Iran
House subpoenas Pompeo for Ukraine files in Trump impeachment probe
Rouhani: U.S. offered to end Iran sanctions in return for meeting
Iran Says Seized UK-Flagged Tanker Has Left Iranian Waters
Moscow Calls on Activating Turkish Observation Points in Idlib
Abbas Says UN Responsible for Protecting Peace, International Law
Erdogan Vows to Continue Oil, Natural Gas Trade with Iran
Egypt's Sisi Says Protests 'No Reason for Concern'
Seven Nigerian troops killed in militant ambush
PM Johnson says he will obey the law, confident of Brexit deal
Philippines declares dengue outbreak an epidemic
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on September 27-28/2019
Repercussions of high-interest rates on
Lebanon and its economy/Annahar Staff /September 27/2019
The smuggling of dollars into Syria/Dan Azzi/Annahar/September 27/2019
Aoun blames dollar crisis on “external pressures”/Georgi Azar/ Annahar/
September 27/2019
IBEF celebrates trade between Italy and Lebanon/Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar Staff
/September 27/2019
New Indictment Adds to Evidence of Hezbollah Terrorist Activities in the U.S./Emanuele
Ottolenghi/FDD/September 27/2019
The IDF mulls pre-emptive strike to ward off planned Iranian attacks on the UAE
and Israel/DEBKAfile/September 27/2019
Five ways to respond to Iran regime’s aggression/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/September 27/2019
The Muslim Brotherhood Must Be Confronted/Tawfik Hamid/Gatestone
Institute/September 27/2019
Tehran’s We Did, We Didn’t Game/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/September 27/2019
Welcome to the End of the Process/Tony Badran/Hoover Institution/September
27/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on September 27-28/2019
Report: Concerns Rise over ‘Shortage’ in
Dollar Reserves
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 27/2019
The central bank’s intention to issue instructions to regulate the provision of
funds to import fuel, wheat and medicine; in addition to the emergence of a
secondary market for the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound to the dollar, have
all raised concerns about a shortage in dollar reserves, media reports said on
Friday. On Thursday, the exchange rate of one dollar to the Lebanese pound
reached 1,630 LBP. Lebanon has maintained a fixed exchange rate (1,510) between
the Lebanese pound and US dollar. “The real reasons for the crisis are the (Banque
du Liban) BDL's attempt to reduce the snap up to convert from the Lebanese pound
to the dollar because this leads to shrinking in the central bank’s foreign
reserves, this ammunition is used to defend the Lebanese pound,” said former
Economy Minister and banker Raed Khoury in remarks to al-Joumhouria daily.
Khoury said BDL “adopts policies to control the monetary situation in light of
the decline in remittances from abroad.”He said BDL is “buying time in order to
preserve the financial system in Lebanon.” Lebanese media this week reported
that banks and money exchange houses were rationing their dollar sales over a
feared shortage in reserves. But central bank governor Riad Salameh on Monday
denied that Lebanon was facing a dollar crisis. BDL said on Tuesday it will
issue a circular to regulate the provision of funds to import wheat, fuel and
medicine. Gas station owners announced Thursday an immediate and open-ended
strike, saying a shortage in dollar reserves has made it difficult to pay
suppliers. Growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political
deadlocks in recent years, compounded by eight years of war in neighbouring
Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- higher than 150
percent of GDP -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of that
figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks. Last month, ratings
agency Fitch bumped Lebanon down to "CCC" over what it called "intensifying
pressure on Lebanon's financing model". Standard & Poor's kept Lebanon's "B-/B"
rating, but said that could slide over the next year if banking system deposits
and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves continued to fall. In July,
parliament passed its 2019 budget, which is expected to trim Lebanon's deficit
to 7.59 percent of GDP -- a nearly 4-point drop from the previous year.
Aoun Says Lebanon Safe Despite Currency Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 27/2019
President Michel Aoun on Friday said some of the external pressures exerted on
Lebanon especially on the economic level “were not new at all,” and highlighted
the need for patience with regard to the recent fears over shortage in dollar
reserves. “Lebanon is not in danger. I will not let Lebanon collapse," Aoun told
reporters. He stressed the “need for patience before launching any position that
affects the Lebanese economy, especially with regard to the dollar
crisis.’Lebanese media this week reported that banks and money exchange houses
were rationing their dollar sales over a feared shortage in reserves. Aoun’s
remarks came in a chat with a press delegation accompanying him on his way back
from New York where he took part in the UN General Assembly meeting. “There is a
cash regulator who is the governor of Banque du Liban, and there is a finance
regulator who is the minister of finance. I am not aware of what happened during
my absence from Beirut," said the President. “There have been a lot of rumors
about the financial situation and people have reacted to it in fear despite
assurances. The recent crisis needs to be addressed. I will follow up closely on
the issue as soon as I get back,” he said. Whether he fears the dollars crisis
could aggravate, the President said the crisis emerged during his presence in
NY, saying he that he sees no danger for Lebanon.
Lebanon’s Currency Crisis Sparks Jitters
Beirut - Mahasen Morsel/Asharq Al Awsat/September 27/2019
US dollar scarcity in the Lebanese market has forced some banks to withhold the
foreign currency from everyday use. Such banks have only allowed customers to
withdraw in Lebanese lira all remittances sent in dollar from abroad, preventing
them from withdrawing dollars from ATMs.Banks also placed a ceiling on clients
when withdrawing US dollars from their accounts.The policies to block the
dollar, particularly among merchants, drove people to trade their Lebanese liras
at exchange firms for LL1,600 against the dollar, exceeding the daily LL1,507
benchmark set by the Central Bank. Several sectors
sounded the alarm this month, including an open-ended strike announced Thursday
by Lebanese gas station owners due to a shortage in dollar reserves that has
made it difficult to pay suppliers. Gas stations in
Lebanon are paid by customers in Lebanese pounds but must pay suppliers in US
dollars.But the syndicate of gas station owners suspended the strike on
Friday.Similar to gasoline importers, wheat importers say they cannot secure the
requisite US dollars needed to pay for the import of wheat at the price set by
the Central bank. The series of strikes and warnings
pushed the Central Bank to issue a statement on Thursday announcing that it
would organize the funding of imports of wheat, medicine and fuel in dollars as
of next Tuesday.A leading merchant in Beirut told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
Bank’s intervention could be the start of a fierce rationing on imports.
“Such measures are usually taken to curb the level of imports with an aim
to bring down the trade deficit and the balance of payments,” the merchant said,
adding that this policy would not solve the problem.
In a related development, a source said the visit of US Treasury Department
Assistant Secretary Marshall Billingslea to Beirut early this week, came to warn
Lebanese banks from selling US dollars to Syrians placed on the US sanctions
lists. Economic researcher Dr. Makram Rabah said that the dollar crisis
aggravated in Lebanon after some merchants began buying dollars in the Lebanese
black market to ensure fuel to the Syrian market. “The
Lebanese people are paying the price of some greedy merchants and the Bashar
Assad regime, which is using Lebanon to evade sanctions,” he said.
Bassil: Domestic Partners Conspiring against Lebanon and
its Economy
Naharnet/September 27/2019
Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Friday said that Lebanon is recently facing a
challenge at the economic level, as he accused “domestic” parties of
“conspiring” against the country and its economy, the State-run National News
Agency reported. “We have triumphed over Israel and terrorism, and we have
overcome all the crises thrown on our land, and today an economic sedition is
being prepared,” for Lebanon, said Bassil at a meeting in Windsor, Canada.
Bassil said Lebanon “is under foreign pressure on our economy and Lebanese
currency especially that domestic parties are conspiring against the country and
its economy,” he said. The Minister accused some “Lebanese of fabricating
incorrect images to incite the people against the state, these are attempts to
dismantle us from within, yes we are going through difficult times but we will
foil the conspiracies trying to harm our lira and our economy.” “Fabrications
are the easiest thing, the problem is that those sabotaging from within are
still subjugate to foreign agendas, thinking that this agenda will win them at
home,” concluded Bassil.
Gas Stations Suspend Strike over Dollar 'Shortage'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 27/2019
Owners of petrol stations in Lebanon on Friday suspended a strike called over an
alleged shortage of dollar reserves, pending a meeting with the prime minister
later in the day. The Syndicate of Gas Station Owners on Thursday night
announced an open-ended strike, saying banks were not supplying them with the
dollars they need to pay importers and suppliers because of a shortage in
reserves. Motorists streamed into filling stations to replenish their vehicles
after the strike announcement on Thursday, resulting in long queues. "The
syndicate decided to suspend the strike on Friday," after a meeting was
scheduled with Prime Minister Saad Hariri in the afternoon, said Sami Brax, the
head of the syndicate. "We will meet again on Saturday morning to
determine our final position," he added in a statement. Lebanese media this week
reported that banks and money exchange houses were rationing their dollar sales
over a feared shortage in reserves.
The syndicate had said that petrol station owners were having to purchase
dollars on the black market or from money exchange offices at higher rates.
Lebanese officials, including President Michel Aoun and Central Bank governor
Riad Salameh, have tried to play down the risk of an economic collapse. When
asked about a feared shortage in dollar reserves, Aoun on Friday said "Lebanon
is not in danger." "I will not let Lebanon collapse," he told reporters. Foreign
Minister Gebran Bassil acknowledged "external pressure on the economy and the
Lebanese pound," but said that local parties were exaggerating the situation to
undermine the government, the state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported on
Friday. "There are local actors who are conspiring against the country and its
economy," he said. They are "fabricating" the situation "to incite citizens
against the state," he added. Salameh on Monday denied that Lebanon was facing a
dollar crisis. "Dollars are available in Lebanon," the central bank governor
said in a news conference, calling reports of a shortage an "exaggeration".
Economic growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political
deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the impact of eight years of war in
neighbouring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- higher
than 150 percent of GDP -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of
that figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks. Last month,
ratings agency Fitch bumped the country down to "CCC" over what it called
"intensifying pressure on Lebanon's financing model".
Hariri Pays Tribute to Chirac
Naharnet/September 27/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri mourned on Thursday the death of French ex-President
Jacque Chirac.“Today, the world lost one of France's greatest men and an
outstanding figure who played distinctive roles in leading Europe,” said Hariri
in a statement. He said Chirac has died after “writing a long history of
achievements attested to by our Arab and Lebanese issues. He stood by the
Palestinian people and backed Lebanon in defense of its freedom, independence
and sovereignty.”“I personally lost a dear friend who was a soul mate of
martyred Premier Rafik Hariri and a big brother for my family,” said the PM.
Jacques Chirac died on Thursday at the age of 86. He was a charismatic giant of
French post-war politics whose popular touch gave him enduring appeal to voters,
even after a conviction for graft.
Hariri Announces Official Mourning Monday for Chirac
Naharnet/September 27/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri issued a memorandum on Friday declaring an official
mourning for the late former French President Jacques Chirac who passed away
yesterday, Hariri's media office said. The memorandum read as follows: On the
occasion of the passing of Lebanon’s friend, former French President Jacque
Chirac, an official mourning will be observed during the burial ceremony on
Monday September 30, 2019. Flags on official administrations and institutions
and municipalities will be lowered to half-staff and regular programs on radio
and television stations are to be modified in accordance with the painful
occasion.
Lebanese Clear Civil War-Era Mines from Famed Cedar Forests
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 27/2019
Kneeling beneath Lebanon's ancient cedars, Waheeb Humayed peers through a
protective visor and waves a metal detector until he hears the tell-tale beep.
He clips the grass, pushes a small prodder into the ground and gently sweeps the
dirt away with a garden trowel, revealing another deadly mine.
Three decades after the civil war ended, deminers are still working to clear
this mountainous northern region, famous for its centuries-old cedar trees,
which are Lebanon's national emblem. Humanity and Inclusion, an international
demining organization, says it has removed hundreds of mines and other
explosives since 2011."I feel very happy every time I discover a mine," Humayed
said after he safely removed the anti-personnel mine. "I just feel that I helped
save the life of a human being or an animal." Lebanon's lush cedar forests are a
source of pride for this small Mediterranean country. The ancient tree, often
dubbed "Cedars of God," is emblazoned on the national flag, and forests across
the north are prime tourist attractions. Hadath El-Jebbeh, a village in the
northern Becharre region, is home to one of the largest cedar forests in the
country. But it sees few visitors because of mines left over from the 1975-1990
civil war, when the area was on the front lines between the Syrian army and the
Lebanese Forces, a Christian militia.
As the deminers took a break under the cedar trees, a shepherd shouted from a
distance that he saw something suspicious. The deminers told him to stay away
from it, saying they would check it out in the coming days.Despite the dangers,
local shepherds still bring flocks of sheep and goats to graze nearby. Hikers
have also wandered into the area, not knowing about the hidden mines. It might
be sheer luck that there have been no reports of fatalities in the area in
recent years. Lebanon is littered with mines left over from decades of conflict.
Israel left thousands of mines behind when it withdrew from southern Lebanon in
2000 after an 18-year occupation. Israeli forces dropped cluster bombs, many of
which failed to detonate, during the 2006 war with Hezbollah. Islamic militants
used mines and explosives in northeastern Lebanon, near the Syrian border, in
2017. Brig. Gen. Jihad Al Bechelany said deminers have cleared about 70% of the
more than 54 square kilometers (20 square miles) of minefields, removing 12,520
mines last year alone. "Most of the minefields here are unorganized and we don't
have maps that give us the exact numbers of mines," said Al Bechelany, who heads
the Lebanon Mine Action Center, part of the Lebanese army. Some 100,000 mines
were left behind from the civil war, with another 360,000 deposited along the
border with Israel, he said. Mines have killed 918 people and wounded 2,886 in
Lebanon since 1975, according to Al Bechelany. He said Lebanon had hoped to
clear all the mines by 2020 but now expects the work to continue for another
decade because of a lack of funding. It could take even longer if the country,
which is grappling with an economic crisis, does not get an expected influx of
$340 million for demining efforts.
Funding comes mostly from the United States, the European Union, Japan and local
Lebanese institutions, according to David Ligneau, mine action program manager
at Humanity and Inclusion. He called on everyone to step up funding and for all
states, including Lebanon, to join treaties banning the use of mines. On a
single day, Associated Press reporters watched a team dispose of 10 mines in the
forests of Hadath el-Jebbeh. Explosive experts wired small detonators to each
mine and called out that they would blow them up within five minutes. The
countdown ended with a huge explosion, sending a mushroom cloud of dust into the
air. Lebanon still has a long way to go, particularly in the south, where mines
and cluster bombs still kill and maim. Last month, cluster bombs left over from
the 2006 war killed a man and a boy. The presence of mines prevents local
communities from making use of large swaths of land, affecting everything from
farming to tourism. Standing beneath the giant cedars, Ligneau said he hoped his
group's efforts would grant the Lebanese people "free access to this beautiful
forest."
Repercussions of high-interest rates on Lebanon and its
economy
النهار: تداعيات ارتفاع الفوائد على لبنان واقتصاده
Annahar Staff /September 27/2019
High-interest rates not only put a burden on the shoulders of citizens but also
on those of the state and the banking sector
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78877/annahar-repercussions-of-high-interest-rates-on-lebanon-and-its-economy-dan-azzi-annahar-the-smuggling-of-dollars-into-syria-georgi-azar-annahar-aoun-blames-dollar-crisis-on-external-pressures/
What would be the repercussions on Lebanese citizens and the economy if interest
rates remain high?
High-interest rates not only put a burden on the shoulders of citizens but also
on those of the state and the banking sector. This would cause a multitude of
problems that could negatively impact the Lebanese economy as a whole.
According to the economist Charbel Kordahi, high-interest rates curb expansion
and investment while leading to an increased leverage ratio. This would also
push the depositors to increase their savings instead of using their money for
consumption and investment. The economic downturn would endure, and the rising
trend in interest rates would prevent any economic growth, Kordahi emphasized.
Three factors would contribute to the cutting of interest rates, he said.
- Declining trends in US and European interest rates.
- The Lebanese state’s ability to control its budget deficit.
- An agreement between BDL and the Ministry of Finance to reduce interest rates
through state borrowing from local banks with lower interest rates.
It should be noted that Lebanese banks are trying to maintain their
profitability by raising interest rates and forcing other sectors to bear these
costs. However, Kordahi believes that this will prove to be counterproductive,
unprofitable and highly risky for all parties. Meanwhile, economist Louis
Hobeika said that the political and financial developments in Lebanon are an
obstacle to efforts aiming at cutting interest rates. Hobeika emphasized the
need to implement the 2020 budget as soon as possible noting that modifications,
if any, can be discussed at a later date.
The smuggling of dollars into Syria
دان قزي/النهار/تهريب الدولارات إلى سوريا
Dan Azzi/Annahar/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78877/annahar-repercussions-of-high-interest-rates-on-lebanon-and-its-economy-dan-azzi-annahar-the-smuggling-of-dollars-into-syria-georgi-azar-annahar-aoun-blames-dollar-crisis-on-external-pressures/
The reality is that ATMs ran out of dollars simply because there’s excess demand
for them.
Recent reports are circulating that the shortage of dollars in the country is
due to those “darn Syrians” withdrawing cash from our ATM machines and smuggling
them into Syria. First the “poor ones” steal our arghile charcoal jobs and now
the “damn rich” ones are causing trouble by moving their money back to their
country.
So let’s reconstruct this operation for a second.
Take I: Intelligence Officer General Rustom Kanaan comes into the Achrafieh
branch of TrustMe Bank and says, “Shlonak Akhi. My name is Philippe Chalu and
I’d like to open an account. Here’s $10 million in cash.” OK, so what’s the
likelihood that this would pass? And if it did, why would he deposit $10 million
in cash, only to take it out from ATMs, at the rate of $1,000 per day, over the
next 10,000 days, i.e. 27.4 years? Of course, hundreds of intelligence officers
would have to do the same thing. OK, that’s not it.
Take II: He doesn’t deposit cash. He wires it from a bank in Luxembourg. But
wait a minute — if he has an account in Luxembourg, it means he’s already been
successful in laundering the money and can use the ATM of that bank anywhere in
the world, so why transfer it to a higher risk country. OK, that’s not it
either.
Take III: The accounts already existed for rich Syrians, which means these are
the guys who evacuated their wealth here years ago, so their money doesn’t get
stuck in a war zone. So the theory is that maybe they heard the call of
President Bashar Assad who said he needs dollars, so like the good patriots that
they are, heeded the Baathist slogan: “One Arab nation, with an eternal
message!” They immediately withdrew their money from ATMs and took it to Syria
and gave it to Mr. Assad, for free. Do you really buy this?
Take IV: Syrian Intelligence people are traveling all around the country to the
Sarrafs and anyone in front of an ATM, and scooping up all the dollars in the
country and smuggling it into Syria. But what did they exchange it for? Syrian
Lira? Lebanese Lira? What? What would all these Lebanese that took out cash from
ATMs get from this Syrian Intelligence guy in return? Clearly, another
nonsensical theory.
Thus, the reality is that ATMs ran out of dollars simply because there’s excess
demand for them.
The first thing to understand is the different types of dollars we have in the
country.
Think of dollars like water. If you freeze water, it becomes ice, a solid.
If you boil it, it becomes vapor, a gas, and are all fungible (meaning easily
converted or exchangeable one for the other), under the right conditions.
We have three types of dollars in Lebanon. The electronic, real dollars that the
Central Bank calls reserves. I call these real virtual dollars, because they can
buy stuff from outside the country but can’t be transferred into physical form
(easily).
BDL doesn’t actually have a vault in his basement with a stack of hundred dollar
bills worth $30 billion. So the central bank reserves can be transferred
overseas to buy goods and services, such as a car.
Then there’s the dollar at the exchange house or Sarraf. This is the piece of
paper (cotton actually), with a picture of Benjamin Franklin on it. Those are
called fiat notes. This is the one that you can take anywhere in the world and
people will give you stuff in return.
The third type of dollar is the one you have in the bank. Its value (in your
mind) is what your bank statement says. A year ago these three forms of dollars
were fungible.
Today, the money in your account is no longer fungible because it’s not a real
dollar. The actual real value is whatever the bank has available to give you if
you asked for your money.
To be more precise, it’s the amount of liquidity he has divided by the aggregate
demand of all the people at any moment in time. For example, say you have
$100,000 and Fatmeh has $200,000 at TrustMe bank. If TrustMe bank only has
$30,000 in liquidity, and you and Fatmeh want to withdraw all your money today,
the practical or usable value of your account is actually $10,000, while the
value of Fatmeh’s account is $20,000. This assumes life is fair. Say Fatmeh has
a huge Wasta and is able to take all of the bank’s liquidity, i.e. your $10,000
as well, then the value of her account is $30,000, while the value of yours is
zero.
This is why you’ll hear many horror stories about people not being able to get
their money, and then suddenly Ramzi jumps in and says “I withdrew money today
and had no problem.” Basically, the allocation of this limited liquidity by
banks is based on a lot of factors, such as the amount you’re withdrawing
relative to your total assets (they wouldn’t want to piss off a big client), how
loudly you yell, your Wasta, if you’re accompanied by a good lawyer, and
sometimes sheer luck. The value of your account is whatever liquidity the
central bank wants to release from his reserves to cover demand (for Lira
exchanged to dollars or transfers).
Thus, in a time of crisis, trust dwindles, and the “realest” dollar is the one
you can see, feel, and smell — the greenback with Benjamin Franklin’s picture —
that’s why it’s trading at a premium of 1600-1650 Lira now, in the real world,
as opposed to 1514 in the virtual world of a computer screen.
Think of this difference similarly to being shot at by a pistol in a PlayStation
game or a 9mm Glock in the real world. Of course, the central bank can use a
billion dollars of his reserves to transfer overseas and ship in a planeload of
fiat dollar bills to alleviate the crisis, so why doesn’t he?
The answer is because everyone is withdrawing cash and hoarding it, which means
he would use up his reserves for no productive reason and he would just “feed
the beast.” Thus he has wisely opted to let market forces determine the real
value of a Benjamin Franklin versus our Lira, keeping his reserves for
essentials such as medicine, grain, and fuel, so we don’t end up like Venezuela.
*Dan Azzi is a regular contributor to Annahar. He has recently been invited to
be an Advanced Leadership Initiative Fellow at Harvard University, a program for
senior executives to leverage their experience and apply it to a problem with
social impact. Dan’s research focus at Harvard will be economic and political
reform in a hypothetical small country riddled with corruption and negligence.
Previously, he was the Chairman and CEO of Standard Chartered Bank Lebanon.
Aoun blames dollar crisis on “external pressures”
جورج عازار/النهار: عون يحمل مسؤولية أزمة الدوار للضغوطات الخارجية
Georgi Azar/ Annahar/ September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78877/annahar-repercussions-of-high-interest-rates-on-lebanon-and-its-economy-dan-azzi-annahar-the-smuggling-of-dollars-into-syria-georgi-azar-annahar-aoun-blames-dollar-crisis-on-external-pressures/
Aoun was taking part in the 74th session of the U.N. General Assembly, during
which he sought out international support for Lebanon as it struggles to stay
afloat.
BEIRUT: As Lebanon’s precarious monetary situation continues making rounds,
President Michel Aoun hinted at possible “external pressures” hindering progress
on his way back from New York.
Speaking to reporters before returning to Beirut, Aoun pointed to “familiar
external pressures” that are playing a role in Lebanon’s current shortage of U.S
dollars without further elaboration. Instead, Aoun expressed the need to
“clarify the truth” before a position can be taken.
Aoun was taking part in the 74th session of the U.N. General Assembly, during
which he sought out international support for Lebanon as it struggles to stay
afloat.
“Our allies reiterated their keenness to support Lebanon in preserving its
sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” adding that discussions
centered on “direct support to help Lebanon rebuild its national economy through
a program reflected in the 2020 budget.”
Dollar strapped wheat importers the latest to sound the alarm
The budget, he said, would “achieve the ambitions of Lebanese with the help of a
new economic vision that strengthens Lebanon’s productive sectors.”
The past week saw a number of suppliers raise the alarm over the scarcity of U.S
dollars in the market, as banks continue showing reluctance in issuing dollars.
Despite the uncertainty, Aoun vowed “to not let Lebanon fall,” while expressing
his satisfaction with the results achieved by his participation in the General
Assembly.
On Friday, the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners in Lebanon suspended the gas
station strike in the lead-up to what is set to be decisive talks scheduled with
Prime Minister Saad Hariri later in the afternoon.
Participation in the strike wasn’t unanimous, with gas stations split on whether
to escalate the matter in the early hours of Friday morning.
Around “70 percent of gas stations” shut down momentarily, according to the head
of the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners Sami Brax.
Fuel importers meanwhile, refused to partake in the strike.
Confusion erupted late Thursday as news of a possible strike took citizens by
surprise, prompting them to hit gas stations to fill up their vehicles in
anticipation of a potential cut off.
“We need dollars to pay importers, but banks and money exchange houses are not
giving us dollars because there is a shortage in the market,” Brax said.
Dollars have come at a premium in recent weeks, with a number of suppliers,
including wheat importers, finding it increasingly difficult to finance their
wide-scale operations.
They, as a number of other businesses, receive payments in Lebanese pounds while
paying their own suppliers in dollars.
The shortage has pushed them to resort to money exchange houses, which have
exploited the current state of affairs to increase rates to around 1560 Lebanese
to the dollar. In some cases, Annahar has reported rates exchanging at 1600
Lebanese pounds to the dollar.
Governor Riad Salameh dismissed the “crisis” last week, saying that “dollars are
available in Lebanon,” while labeling reports of a shortage an “exaggeration”.
However, a prominent banker who spoke on condition of anonymity painted to
Annahar a different picture.
He noted an increase in deposit account conversion, from Lebanese pounds to
dollars, with a slight increase in capital flight as uncertainty over Lebanon’s
financial stability lingers.
“People are holding on tightly to their dollars,” he said, noting that one-shot
conversions are now a thing of the past. Instead, he told Annahar, conversions
have become gradual, with banks reluctant to process hefty requests swiftly.
Banque Du Liban has also taken a more conservative approach, limiting its
seepage of dollars to banks by “discouraging purchases,” he said.
Faced with repeated political deadlocks and a protracted Syrian refugee crisis,
growth in Lebanon has hovered near the one percent mark while its public debt
has skyrocketed.
It currently stands at around $86 billion, or around 150 percent of GDP, the
third highest in the world.
Eighty percent of that figure is owed to Lebanon’s central bank and local banks.
With officials slow to implement necessary reforms to appease international
donors, both Fitch ratings and Moody’s downgraded Lebanon to CCC over
“intensifying pressure on Lebanon’s financing model”.
IBEF celebrates trade between Italy and Lebanon
Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar Staff /September 27/2019
“We’ve been the first trade partners of Lebanon for many years in several
sectors, and there’s good trust between Italian companies and Lebanese
companies,” Zadro said.
BEIRUT: While Lebanon was celebrating the 10th anniversary of an event that has
become an annual gathering for energy professionals from all over the globe, a
delegation of energy experts from Italy made their way to Lebanon’s booming
capital with one aim in mind: to showcase the 14 companies that had traveled
with them and encourage business partnerships within the energy sector between
the two countries.
The delegation was coordinated by The Italian Trade Agency – ICE Agency, in
participation with the Italian Embassy, which issued the following statement:
“Our objective is to create opportunities for both countries and spread
knowledge about Italian technologies in the field of renewable energy, since
Italian technologies in that field are among the most sophisticated in the whole
world,” the statement, delivered by the Embassy, read. “Italy has reduced the
consumption of energy due to the introduction of these technologies and hopes
that Lebanon will benefit from the Italian experience which has many advantages
on the economic and environmental level.”
Italy, which was the only foreign country participating in the International
Beirut Energy Forum (IBEF), was represented by four entities: The Italian
Embassy, the Italian Trade Agency, UNIDO ITPO Italy, ANIMA Federation and GSE
SPA.
“Investing in energy is the best investment Lebanon can make for its future,”
Roberta Di Lecce, Deputy Head of Mission at the Italian Embassy, said. Her
sentiments were echoed by the trade commissioner of the Italian Trade Agency in
Beirut Francesca Zadro.
“We’ve been the first trade partners of Lebanon for many years in several
sectors, and there’s good trust between Italian companies and Lebanese
companies,” Zadro said. “We have more than 9000 companies that sell their
products in all sectors in Lebanon so business between the two countries is
doing very well.”
After a brief word from each of the four entities representing their country
Italy, it was time for the 14 remaining companies, which had traveled all the
way from Italy to meet Lebanese companies, to introduce themselves and their
achievements. They were the following (including ANIMA Federation):
AG PLANT – Agro Industrial Plant: represents in a single container the
experience of Italian plant design acquired in last decades. The supply chain is
made up of both prestigious large companies which blend with small to medium
sized companies that bring their precious knowhow, so as to make everything
accurate in all details.
ATS2000 S.r.l: For more than 40 years A.T.S. 2000 has provided cutting-edge
solutions for the civil and industrial plant engineering. A.T.S. 2000 features
excellent skills not only on the specific technology, but also on advice and
engineering so that they can offer their customers a 360-degree assistance, from
design to manufacture, implementation, and maintenance of plants.
BRULLI SERVICE Sr: Brulli Group is the evolution of a tradition that has its
roots in 1956. The company is a reputable industrial player highly specialized
in development, investment, construction and operation of energy infrastructures
such as hydropower plants and substations.
CEIPIEMONTE - PIEMONTE AGENCY: Piemonte Agency is the entry point offered by
Regione Piemonte, the local Chambers of Commerce and other public members to get
in touch and make business with Piemonte - North West Italy.
CMP IMPIANTI S.r.l. : CMP IMPIANTI supply state-of-the-art installation and
maintenance of all systems for the private and the business construction
sectors: electrical, lighting, automation, anti-intrusion, video surveillance,
photovoltaic, solar thermal, water, plumbing, HVAC, fire prevention, sanitation
of aeraulic systems in general.
Gestore dei Servizi Energetici – GSE SpA: GSE is the Italian State-owned company
in charge for the promotion and development of the renewable energy and energy
efficiency sectors in Italy.
PROGER S.p.A.: Proger is an international company that offers the best Italian
engineering and management expertise in a broad range of fields. The company
boasts more than 60 years of experience and now sits at the top of the Italian
rankings, with a consolidated position among the top 100 international
engineering companies in the world.
PTSCLAS S.p.A.: PTSCLAS stems from the desire to combine different consulting
realities between them. Their innovative proposal is condensed into an
integrated offer built over 60 years of history and which allows us today to
follow the projects from the strategic phase to their implementation.
R.I. GROUP: RI designs and realizes habitation compounds for civil use and
International Peace missions. It operates in critical areas offering turnkey
solutions in difficult and high-risk contexts.
ROVATTI A. & FIGLI POMPE SPA: Since its establishment in 1952, Rovatti Pompe has
positioned itself as a leading centrifugal pumps manufacturer for submersible
and surface installations.
SIEL SPA: We are an Italian company specialized in energy security that since
1983 produce and sell UPS all over the world through 9 branches and dozens of
local distributors. Since 2000 we have also started the production of solar
Inverters.
Società Industriale Prefabbricati Armati – S.I.P.A. S.p.A.: Located in Benevento
and founded in 1961, it is a leading national producer of concrete and steel
poles for overhead MV and LV electric lines as well as of cement boxes for
electrical equipment.
ZECO DI ZERBARO E COSTA E C. SRL: Since the end of the 1960s, Zeco has been
offering products and solutions for the generation of hydroelectric power. Zeco
produces Kaplan, Francis and Pelton turbines and it’s therefore capable of
offering the right solution to produce electrical energy in power plants up to
300MW per unit, according to logistical and hydraulic conditions.
The presentations were followed by a networking session that allowed the Italian
and Lebanese companies to be introduced to one another.
New Indictment Adds to Evidence of Hezbollah Terrorist
Activities in the U.S.
ايمانويل اوتولنجي/مؤسسة الدفاع عن الديموقراطيات/المزيد من الوقائع القضائية
الجديدة ضد الأميركي اللبناني على حسن صعب تبين انشطة حزب الله الإرهابية في أميركا
Emanuele Ottolenghi/FDD/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78871/emanuele-ottolenghi-fddnew-indictment-adds-to-evidence-of-hezbollah-terrorist-activities-in-the-u-s-%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%84%d9%86%d8%ac%d9%8a/
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York announced the
indictment last week of U.S. citizen Ali Hassan Saab, a resident of Morristown,
New Jersey, and suspected Hezbollah agent. The indictment provides mounting
evidence that Hezbollah has patiently and quietly built up its terrorist
infrastructure on U.S. soil.
Hezbollah-planted sleeper cells are critical to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s
strategy of asymmetric warfare, especially as tensions escalate between Tehran
and Washington. Iran views terrorist operations as a legitimate policy option
but recognizes the advantage of plausible deniability. Thus, Hezbollah cells
gather intelligence, provide logistical support, and carry out operations,
although only Tehran decides if and when to strike U.S. targets.
The U.S. government alleges that Saab worked on behalf of Hezbollah’s External
Security Organization (ESO), which coordinates planning for terrorist attacks
abroad. In 2017, U.S. authorities arrested two other ESO agents operating on
U.S. soil, Ali Kourani and Samer El Debek. Kourani has already been convicted
and sentenced, whereas Debek, according to Saab’s criminal complaint, is
cooperating with authorities.
Saab’s profile is similar to Debek’s and Kourani’s: He is accused of having a
longstanding association with the ESO (in his case, since 1996); of having
undergone extensive training in Lebanon, including with explosives; and of
having conducted surveillance of potential targets on U.S. soil during his
nearly two-decade long residence in the U.S.
Saab’s indictment confirms Hezbollah’s modus operandi in the U.S., which is to
employ agents who enter the United States legally and then acquire U.S.
permanent residency status and eventually citizenship. All three captured ESO
operatives in the U.S. acquired citizenship before their handlers tasked them
with surveillance of targets and other terror-related activities.
This preference for getting operatives in through the front door is evident in
Hezbollah’s reliance on dual nationals to carry out operations worldwide. In all
recent terror plots in which Hezbollah has been implicated, the captured
operatives used genuine foreign passports. (In the case of the 2012 suicide
bombing in Burgas, Bulgaria, which targeted Israeli tourists, the attacker also
had a valid passport.) Mohamad Amadar, who was arrested in Peru in October 2014,
is the only ESO operative to use a fraudulently obtained passport to reach his
final destination.
Hezbollah financiers and facilitators also have a strong tendency to acquire
legal residency in their countries of operation. U.S. authorities have
prosecuted and sanctioned an array of such individuals for laundering drug
proceeds from South American cartels.
In every country where Hezbollah’s terror cells and terror-finance networks
operate, their agents have exploited weaknesses in the immigration system to
their advantage. This requires fresh thinking, especially by the U.S. and its
partners in the Western Hemisphere, about the naturalization process and those
who exploit the system for nefarious purposes.
Easy paths to citizenship, including via investment, are common in many Western
Hemisphere countries, where thorough vetting is often lacking. There needs to be
tougher due diligence in the application processes. That extends to the United
States, where immigration policy has clearly been exploited by terrorists to
enter the country legally.
*Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD). Follow Emanuele on Twitter @eottolenghi. Follow FDD on
Twitter @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Southern District of New York
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Indictment Of New Jersey Man For Terrorist
Activities On Behalf Of Hizballah’s Islamic Jihad Organization
Alexei Saab Allegedly Was Trained by Hizballah’s External Terrorist Operations
Component in Bomb-Making and Conducted Intelligence-Gathering in New York City
and Washington, D.C., and Elsewhere in Support of Hizballah’s Attack-Planning
Efforts
Geoffrey S. Berman, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New
York, John C. Demers, the Assistant Attorney General for National Security,
William F. Sweeney Jr., the Assistant Director-in-Charge of the New York Office
of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”), and James P. O’Neill, the
Commissioner of the Police Department for the City of New York (“NYPD”),
announced that ALEXEI SAAB, a/k/a “Ali Hassan Saab,” a/k/a “Alex Saab,” a/k/a “Rachid,”
was charged today in a nine-count Indictment for offenses related to his support
for Hizballah and separate marriage-fraud offenses. SAAB was arrested July 9,
2019, in New York, New York, pursuant to a criminal complaint, and remains
detained. The case is assigned to U.S. District Judge Paul G. Gardephe.
Manhattan U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman said: “As a member of the Hizballah
component that coordinates external terrorist attack planning, Alexei Saab
allegedly used his training to scout possible targets throughout the U.S. Even
though Saab was a naturalized American citizen, his true allegiance was to
Hizballah, the terrorist organization responsible for decades of terrorist
attacks that have killed hundreds, including U.S. citizens and military
personnel. Thankfully, Saab is now in federal custody, and faces significant
prison time for his alleged crimes.”
Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers said: “According to the allegations,
while living in the United States, Saab served as an operative of Hizballah and
conducted surveillance of possible target locations in order to help the foreign
terrorist organization prepare for potential future attacks against the United
States. Such covert activities conducted on U.S. soil are a clear threat to our
national security and I applaud the agents, analysts, and prosecutors who are
responsible for this investigation and prosecution.”
FBI Assistant Director-in-Charge William F. Sweeney Jr. said: “As alleged, Saab
began his training with Hizballah operatives overseas and, while living in the
U.S., surveilled multiple locations in major cities. Today’s announcement
highlights the persistent efforts of a sophisticated international terrorist
organization to scout targets at home and abroad, identifying vulnerabilities,
and gathering essential details useful for a future attack. In the city that
never sleeps, neither do the FBI agents, detectives, and analysts who work on
the JTTF to protect it, and because of their work, Saab’s future surveillances
will be limited to a cell. We cannot do this work alone. I would like to thank
the countless private security professionals who protect many of these sites,
remind them to remain vigilant in order to make the enemy’s job more difficult,
and I would ask the general public to continue to report suspicious activity to
law enforcement like you have so many times in the past.”
NYPD Commissioner James P. O’Neill said: “Saab operated in the streets of New
York as a covert operative for Hizballah, gathering intelligence and sizing up
targets for potential attacks on US soil. This case brings us another important
piece of the puzzle in our long term investigations into the terrorist groups
targeting New York City. I commend the teamwork of the NYPD detectives, FBI
agents and all the partner agencies in the Joint Terrorism Task Force”.
According to the Indictment and Complaint unsealed today in Manhattan federal
court:[1]
Hizballah is a Lebanon-based Shia Islamic organization with political, social,
and terrorist components. Hizballah was founded in the 1980s with support from
Iran after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, and its mission includes
establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state in Lebanon. Since Hizballah’s
formation, the organization has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks
that have killed hundreds, including United States citizens and military
personnel. In 1997, the U.S. Department of State designated Hizballah a Foreign
Terrorist Organization, pursuant to Section 219 of the Immigration and
Nationality Act, and it remains so designated today. In 2001, pursuant to
Executive Order 13224, the U.S. Department of Treasury designated Hizballah a
Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity. In 2010, State Department
officials described Hizballah as the most technically capable terrorist group in
the world, and a continued security threat to the United States.
The Islamic Jihad Organization (“IJO”), which is also known as the External
Security Organization and “910,” is a component of Hizballah responsible for the
planning and coordination of intelligence, counterintelligence, and terrorist
activities on behalf of Hizballah outside of Lebanon. In July 2012, an IJO
operative detonated explosives on a bus transporting Israeli tourists in the
vicinity of an airport in Burgas, Bulgaria, which killed six people and injured
32 others. Law enforcement authorities have disrupted several other IJO
attack-planning operations around the world, including the arrest of an IJO
operative surveilling Israeli targets in Cyprus in 2012, the seizure of
bomb-making precursor chemicals in Thailand in 2012, and a seizure of similar
chemicals in May 2015 in connection with the arrest of another IJO operative. In
June 2017, two IJO operatives were arrested in the United States and charged
with terrorism-related offenses in the Southern District of New York. In May
2019, a jury convicted one of those two IJO operatives on all counts.
SAAB joined Hizballah in 1996. SAAB’s first Hizballah operation occurred in
Lebanon, where he was tasked with observing and reporting on the movements of
Israeli and Southern Lebanese Army soldiers in Yaroun, Lebanon. Among other
things, SAAB reported on patrol schedules and formations, procedures at security
checkpoints, and the vehicles used by soldiers.
In approximately 1999, SAAB attended his first Hizballah training. The training
focused on the use of firearms, and SAAB handled and fired an AK-47, an M16
rifle, and a pistol, and threw grenades. In 2000, SAAB transitioned to
membership in Hizballah’s unit responsible for external operations, the IJO, and
he then received extensive training in IJO tradecraft, weapons, and military
tactics, including how to construct and detonate bombs and other explosive
devices. In 2004 and 2005, Saab attended explosives training in Lebanon during
which he received detailed instruction in, among other things, triggering
mechanisms, explosive substances, detonators, and the assembly of circuits.
In 2000, SAAB lawfully entered the United States using a Lebanese passport. In
2005, SAAB applied for naturalized citizenship and falsely affirmed, under
penalty of perjury, that he had never been “a member of or in any way associated
with . . . a terrorist organization.” In August 2008, SAAB became a naturalized
U.S. citizen.
While living in the United States, SAAB remained an IJO operative, continued to
receive military training in Lebanon, and conducted numerous operations for the
IJO. For example, SAAB surveilled dozens of locations in New York City –
including the United Nations headquarters, the Statue of Liberty, Rockefeller
Center, Times Square, the Empire State Building, and local airports, tunnels,
and bridges – and provided detailed information on these locations, including
photographs, to the IJO. In particular, SAAB focused on the structural
weaknesses of locations he surveilled in order to determine how a future attack
could cause the most destruction. SAAB’s reporting to the IJO included the
materials used to construct a particular target, how close in proximity one
could get to a target, and site weaknesses or “soft spots” that the IJO could
exploit if it attacked a target in the future. SAAB conducted similar
intelligence gathering in a variety of large American cities, including
Washington, D.C. The FBI recovered photographs from SAAB’s electronic devices
reflecting his surveillance activities, including photographs of New York City
landmarks.
In addition to his attack-planning activities in the United States, SAAB
conducted operations abroad. For example, SAAB attempted to murder a man he
later understood to be a suspected Israeli spy. SAAB pointed a firearm at the
individual at close range and pulled the trigger twice, but the firearm did not
fire. SAAB also conducted intelligence-gathering for Hizballah in Istanbul,
Turkey.
Finally, unrelated to his IJO activities, in July 2012, SAAB married another
individual (“CC-1”) so that CC-1 could apply for naturalized citizenship in the
United States based on their marriage. On March 13, 2015, SAAB and CC-1 jointly
filed a petition seeking to obtain naturalized citizenship for CC-1. In doing
so, SAAB and CC-1 falsely claimed under penalty of perjury that their marriage
was “not for the purpose of procuring an immigration benefit.”
SAAB, 42, of Morristown, New Jersey, is charged with providing material support
to a designated foreign terrorist organization, which carries a maximum sentence
of 20 years in prison; conspiracy to provide material support and resources to a
designated foreign terrorist organization, which carries a maximum sentence of
20 years in prison; receiving military-type training from a designated foreign
terrorist organization, which carries a sentence of 10 years in prison or a
fine; conspiracy to receive military-type training from a designated foreign
terrorist organization, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in
prison; unlawful procurement of citizenship or naturalization to facilitate an
act of international terrorism, which carries a maximum sentence of 25 years in
prison; marriage fraud conspiracy, which carries a maximum sentence of five
years; citizenship application fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 10
years; naturalization fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of five years; and
making false statements, which carries a maximum sentence of five years. The
maximum potential sentences in this case are prescribed by Congress and are
provided here for informational purposes only, as any sentencing of the
defendant will be determined by a judge.
*Mr. Berman and Mr. Demers praised the outstanding efforts of the FBI’s New York
Joint Terrorism Task Force, which principally consists of agents from the FBI
and detectives from the NYPD. They also thanked the Counterterrorism Section of
the Department of Justice’s National Security Division as well as the Attorney
General’s Hezbollah Financing and Narcoterrorism Team.
This prosecution is being handled by the Office’s Terrorism and International
Narcotics Unit. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Michael K. Krouse and Jason A. Richman
are in charge of the prosecution, with assistance from Trial Attorneys Bridget
Behling and Alexandra Hughes of the Counterterrorism Section.
The charges contained in the Indictment are merely accusations, and the
defendant is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.
[1] As the introductory phrase signifies, the entirety of the text of the
Complaint and Indictment and the description of the Complaint and Indictment set
forth below constitute only allegations, and every fact described should be
treated as an allegation.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on September 27-28/2019
The IDF mulls pre-emptive strike to ward off planned Iranian attacks on the UAE
and Israel
موقع دبيكا: الجيش الإسرائيلي يفكر بتنفيذ ضربات وقائية واستباقية لإحباط هجمات
تخطط لها إيران ضد إسرائيل والإمارات
DEBKAfile/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78882/%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d8%af%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%83%d8%b1-%d8%a8%d8%aa%d9%86%d9%81/
“Israel’s proven capacity to simultaneously perform multiple
missions is about to be challenged as never before,’ said Binyamin Netanyahu on
Thursday, Sept. 26, during a New Year’s toast at the IDF General Staff forum.
The prime minister and defense minister went on to say: “Hitherto we have
navigated affairs boldly and responsibly in several arenas, at times
simultaneously, but not so far in a comprehensive confrontation.”
Netanyahu has never referred to all-out war as a distinct possibility, only as
an outcome to be averted by “bold and responsible” navigation on several fronts.
DEBKAfile accounts for this change of tone by the events building up in the last
two weeks. The effort to arrange a summit between the American and Iranian
presidents at the UN fell flat, and Iran knows that even harsher US sanctions
are therefore in store, including a ban on the Chinese vessels that are breaking
the embargo on its oil sales. Tehran has furthermore counted its Sept. 14 cruise
missile-drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure a major success; it does not
hide its intention to follow up with more devastating strikes against America’s
regional allies.
Indeed on Sept. 22, Iran’s mouthpiece Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah and
Tehran media singled out the United Arab Emirates as the next target after Saudi
Arabia. A communique quoted by Iran’s media revealed: “A final ultimatum has
been issued to the United Arab Emirates, explicitly and through a third party,
either to get out of the Yemen war, north and south, or to wait for their share
of punitive attack.” The warning adds: ”It would be a cruel attack on a country
that has never experienced fire inside its home.”
In the absence of an American military response to the attack on Saudi oil,
Tehran feels it can safely strike when and how it pleases.
With Israeli media exclusively preoccupied with the national political
stalemate, a third general election appears in the national consciousness to be
more realistic than a general war.
However, Netanyahu’s warning on the eve of the New Year was solidly grounded in
a rush of ominous events. The generals he addressed are therefore working on two
assumptions:
1- There is no certainty that Iran’s next “punitive attack” won’t fall on Israel
before the UAE. The IDF is therefore in the throes of preparations to fend off
Iranian cruise missiles and exploding drones potentially aimed at strategic
targets in Israel from various sources – Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon or/and the
Gaza Strip.
2-Even if Iran hits the UAE first, Tehran won’t give up on the option of
punishing Israel next.
The Trump administration’s decision not to go to war with Iran leaves the
ayatollahs’ regime a free hand to try and smash the military-intelligence
alliance binding Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel.
The dominant view in the IDF General Staff forum is that the Iranians will not
pass up this opportunity. What Israel’s strategists are trying to decide at this
moment therefore is whether the IDF should wait for the blows to fall on the
Gulf emirate and Israel – in whatever order – or pursue pre-emptive action. In
either case, total war appears to be unavoidable.
Trump says US will not lift sanctions on Iran
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 27 September 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that sanctions on Iran would not be
lifted. In a tweet, Trump said "Iran wanted me to lift the sanctions imposed on
them in order to meet. I said, of course, NO!"President Donald Trump on
Wednesday took steps to bar senior Iranian officials and their immediate family
from entering the US as immigrants or non-immigrants, the White House said in a
proclamation. The US-Iranian confrontation has ratcheted up since last year,
when Trump withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers and
reimposed sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy.
In a speech to the annual gathering of world leaders on Tuesday, US President
Donald Trump promised to keep trying to squeeze Iran’s economy with sanctions
until Tehran agrees to give up what Washington says is a pursuit of nuclear
weapons. Iran has said its nuclear program has always been for peaceful purposes
only.(With Agencies)
House subpoenas Pompeo for Ukraine files in Trump impeachment probe
AFP/Saturday, 28 September 2019
House Democrats subpoenaed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for Ukraine-related
documents Friday as they plunged into an impeachment probe of President Donald
Trump. The heads of three House committees gave Pompeo one week to produce the
documents, saying a number of State Department officials have direct knowledge
of Trump’s efforts to enlist the Ukraine government’s help in his domestic
political campaign for reelection. “The Committees are investigating the extent
to which President Trump jeopardized national security by pressing Ukraine to
interfere with our 2020 election and by withholding security assistance provided
by Congress to help Ukraine counter Russian aggression,” they said. “The
subpoenaed documents shall be part of the impeachment inquiry and shared among
the Committees. Your failure or refusal to comply with the subpoena shall
constitute evidence of obstruction of the House’s impeachment inquiry,” they
wrote. The subpoena came one day after the release of an intelligence official’s
bombshell whistleblower complaint that describes Trump pressuring Ukraine’s
President Volodymyr Zelensky in a July 25 phone call to supply dirt on
Democratic political rival Joe Biden. The complaint also describes the
involvement of Trump’s private lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who allegedly worked with
several US diplomats to pressure Zelensky to help Trump by investigating Biden.
Biden, the former US vice president, is the Democratic frontrunner to battle
Trump in next year’s presidential election.
“It has become clear that multiple State Department officials have direct
knowledge of the subject matters of the House’s impeachment inquiry,” the
subpoena said. The committees also told Pompeo they planned to depose five State
Department officials in the next two weeks. They include former ambassador to
Ukraine Masha Yovanovitch, whom Trump reportedly forced out earlier this year
for resisting his and Giuliani’s efforts to pressure Kiev to probe Biden.
Rouhani: U.S. offered to end Iran sanctions in return for
meeting
Reuters/Ynetnews/September 27/2019
Iranian president says he rejected offer despite pressure from Germany, Britain
and France, insisting on punitive measures be halted first; Trump claims it was
Tehran that proposed meeting condition sanctions were lifted
GENEVA - The United States sent a message to European leaders that it was
willing to lift all sanctions on Iran, according to Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani, who said he had rejected talks with Washington while punitive U.S.
sanctions remained in place. Rouhani, speaking on his return from the United
Nations General Assembly in New York said Germany, Britain and France had
insisted on a joint meeting with U.S. officials. "The German chancellor, the
prime minister of Britain and the president of France were in New York and all
insisted that this meeting take place and America says that it will lift the
sanctions," Rouhani said, according to his official website. "It was up for
debate what sanctions will be lifted and they (the United States) had said
clearly that we will lift all sanctions," his website quoted him as saying. U.S.
President Donald Trump tweeted on Friday that he had rejected Iran's request to
lift sanctions."Iran wanted me to lift the sanctions imposed on them in order to
meet. I said, of course, NO!" he wrote. According to Rouhani, France and Britain
pressed him to meet Trump, with French President Emmanuel Macron warning him it
would be a lost opportunity if he did not. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
suggested the Iranian leader should take the plunge. Iran has ruled out
bilateral talks with the United States unless it returns to the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal, abandoned by Trump last year, and eases the crippling economic
sanctions that he has since imposed on the Islamic Republic. Iran was ready for
negotiations but not in an atmosphere of sanctions and pressure, Rouhani said.
Rouhani did not meet Trump in New York and European and Gulf officials expect
Washington to keep tightening the vice on Iran's economy. The United States and
Iran are at odds over a host of issues, including the U.S. withdrawal from the
2015 Iran nuclear deal, U.S. accusations - denied by Tehran - that Iran attacked
two Saudi oil facilities on Sept. 14, and Iran's detention of U.S. citizens on
what the United States regards as spurious grounds.
Iran Says Seized UK-Flagged Tanker Has Left Iranian Waters
London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 27 September, 2019
Iran since July was released Friday and was heading toward the United Arab
Emirates, the company that owns the vessel said.
Iran's marine and port authority said the Stena Impero left Iran Friday morning.
Hours earlier, the tanker had begun transmitting its location for the first time
in weeks just outside the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, where it had been held
since its seizure. Erik Hanell, President and CEO of Swedish-based Stena Bulk,
the ship's owner, said the vessel and its crew had been released, and the ship
would be transiting through Dubai for the crew to disembark and receive medical
checks. "The families of crew members have been informed and the company is
currently making arrangements for the repatriation of its valued seafarers at
the earliest possible opportunity," Hanell said in a statement. The
ship-tracking website MarineTraffic.com showed the Stena Impero heading south
from Iran at a speed of just over 14 mph (22 kph). Iran seized the tanker on
July 19 in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through
which 20% of all oil passes. The raid saw commandos rappel down onto the vessel
via helicopter carrying assault rifles, dramatic images later replayed on state
television. The seizure came after British marines helped take control of an
Iranian supertanker on July 4. Authorities in Gibraltar, a British overseas
territory, seized the ship carrying $130 million in crude oil on suspicion it
was breaking European Union sanctions by taking the oil to Syria. Gibraltar
later released the tanker, then called the Grace 1, after it said Iran promised
the ship wouldn't go to Syria. That ship, renamed the Adrian Darya 1, later sat
off the Syrian coast, angering Britain. Iran hasn't said who purchased its 2.1
million barrels of crude oil. On Monday, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei
had told journalists the Stena Impero could leave. "Based on a friendly approach
that allows forgiving mistakes, ground for freedom of the tanker has been paved
and it can move," Rabiei said. But the ship remained outside Bandar Abbas until
Friday. Earlier this month, Iran released seven crew members of the Stena Impero.
Sixteen remained on board. The ship seizures come after months of heightened
tensions in the Persian Gulf, sparked by President Donald Trump's decision over
a year ago to unilaterally pull out of a nuclear deal with Iran. The US has
imposed sanctions that have kept Iran from selling its oil abroad and have
crippled its economy. Iran has since begun breaking terms of the deal.
Meanwhile, there have been a series of attacks across the Middle East that the
US blames on Iran. They reached their height on Sept. 14, with a missile and
drone attack on the world's largest oil processor in Saudi Arabia and an oil
field, which caused oil prices to spike by the biggest percentage since the 1991
Gulf War. While Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels claimed the assault, Saudi
Arabia says it was "unquestionably sponsored by Iran."Iran denies being
responsible and has warned any retaliatory attack targeting it will result in an
"all-out war."
Moscow Calls on Activating Turkish Observation Points in
Idlib
Moscow - Raed Jabr/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 27 September, 2019
The Russian Center for Syrian Reconciliation on Thursday expressed hope that the
Turkish military would activate checkpoints located in the de-escalation zone in
the northwestern province of Idlib for the return of refugees to their homes.
The announcement is the first sign that Moscow wishes to enhance Ankara’s
observation posts in the zone. “It is well-known that militants in the Idlib
de-escalation zone hamper the passage of refugees. We are asking the Turkish
side to support us because they have monitoring points in this area. We hope
that by joint efforts we will make the work of checkpoints more productive,”
head of the Russian Center Ravil Muginov told reporters.Muginov said that after
the liberation of Khan Sheikhoun, located in the south of Idlib province, the
Suran checkpoint, located in neighboring Hama province, began functioning both
in the northern and the southern directions. He said that over the past month,
around 10,000 people had returned to the liberated territories. On September 13,
Moscow and Damascus announced the opening of the Abu Adh Dhuhur checkpoint in
the Idlib de-escalation zone.
Last month, the two sides also opened a humanitarian corridor in the village of
Suran. However, it is the first time Russia refers to a possible role of Turkish
checkpoints in the area, particularly that Muginov’s calls reflect his country’s
assertion that Turkish points would remain in Idlib.
Russian sources did not clarify what Damascus had to say about the Russian
invitation, although Syrian authorities had called on Turkey to withdraw its
units from the area, describing the Turkish presence in Idlib as an “invasion.”A
Russian source told Asharq Al-Awsat on Thursday that Moscow seeks to expand the
specter of understandings with Turkey. Meanwhile, Russian military sources
revealed that Moscow is expanding its Hmeimim air base in Syria and rebuilding a
second landing strip to serve more aircraft. Russian news agencies cited an
unnamed Defense Ministry official as saying that Russia has also set up new
buildings to house aircraft that will defend against drone attacks. Thirty
fighter jets and helicopters are currently deployed at the base, he added.
Abbas Says UN Responsible for Protecting Peace,
International Law
New York - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 27 September, 2019
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Thursday that the responsibility to
“protect peace and international law rests with the United Nations.”Addressing
the UN General Assembly in New York, Abbas denounced the US disregard of its
international obligations, saying Washington encouraged Israel to “renounce all
agreements and commitments to peace.”Abbas said it was “unfortunate and
shocking” that the United States, a permanent member of the UN Security Council,
is “supporting Israeli aggression against us – reneging on its international
political, legal and moral obligations”.
He cited “extremely aggressive and unlawful measures” the US has taken, such as
declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel, “in blatant provocation” to hundreds
of millions of Muslims and Christians. The Palestinian president renewed his
rejection of the so-called US “deal of the century,” or “any illusory economic
solutions” proposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump “after it
blew-up all chances for achieving peace, through its policies and procedures.”On
East Jerusalem, Abbas emphasized that Israel “is waging a reckless, racist war
against everything Palestinian”, by demolishing homes, assaulting clergy,
legislating racist laws and denying access to holy places. “I caution against
these policies and reckless measures, which will lead to dangerous consequences
with unfathomable implications,” he warned, asserting that Palestine “will not
surrender to the Israeli occupation regardless of the circumstances and no
matter the pain”.“Let everyone know that occupation cannot bring peace or
security or stability for anyone”, he stated. The Palestinian president renewed
his call for an international peace conference based on the initiative he had
put forward in the Security Council in February 2018, so that all Arab and
international parties involved, including the Council’s permanent members and
the Quartet, participate in it. “We cannot accept that the shepherding of peace
be monopolized by one country,” he said.
Erdogan Vows to Continue Oil, Natural Gas Trade with Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 27/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed Ankara would continue to purchase
oil and natural gas from Iran despite US sanctions in comments published on
Friday. The United States reimposed sanctions on Iran after pulling out of the
landmark 2015 nuclear deal, and says it aims to reduce Tehran's energy sales to
zero. "It is impossible for us to cancel relations with Iran with regards to oil
and natural gas. We will continue to buy our natural gas from there," Erdogan
told Turkish reporters before leaving New York where he was attending the UN
General Assembly. Despite this vow, Erdogan admitted Turkey faced difficulty in
purchasing oil since the private sector "pulled back because of US threats", NTV
broadcaster reported. "But on this issue especially and many other issues, we
will continue our relations with Iran," he promised, adding that Ankara still
sought to increase trade volume with Tehran. He previously criticised sanctions
against Iran, insisting that they achieved nothing. Turkey and Iran have been
working closely together with Russia to resolve the eight-year conflict in Syria
despite being on opposing sides of the war.
Egypt's Sisi Says Protests 'No Reason for Concern'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 27/2019
Egyptian President Fattah al-Sisi on Friday dismissed a call for a second
weekend of protests as "no reason for concern", with hundreds already arrested
in an intensifying crackdown on a rare show of discontent on the streets. Last
week's open defiance of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi -- triggered by viral
videos from exiled Egyptian businessman Mohamed Aly -- has surprised observers
in a country where opposition of all stripes has been severely curtailed.
Elected president in 2014 after pushing predecessor Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood from power the previous year, Sisi is seen by many as one of the
most authoritarian figures in the Middle East. Construction magnate Aly has
called for a "million-man march" to take place Friday and a "people's
revolution" to unseat the uncompromising head of state.
But after he arrived home from the UN General Assembly in New York, Sisi on
Friday insisted there was no cause for alarm. "There are no reasons for concern.
Egypt is a strong country thanks to Egyptians," he told reporters with a smile.
"The case does not deserve all" this attention, Sisi said. "It is an attempt to
create an image that is absolutely not real."Road blocks prevented traffic from
entering Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday morning, AFP journalists said, although
it was still possible to move into the area on foot. Aly accuses Sisi of
building lavish palaces while taxpayers grapple with the impact of austerity
under an IMF loan programme totalling $12 billion. In recent days, security has
been visibly stepped up, especially in Tahrir Square -- the epicentre of the
2011 popular revolt that toppled long-time autocrat Hosni Mubarak. That iconic
location was key to last week's demonstrations, which broke out after a football
match with protesters chanting "leave, Sisi!" and accusing him of heading a
"military regime". Alongside beefing up their presence on the streets, the
security forces have also detained people they suspect of being key influencers
of unrest -- journalists, human rights activists and lawyers.
- 'Wrong place, wrong time' -
Human Rights Watch said Friday that nearly 2,000 people had been arrested over
the past week, in what could be the biggest crackdown since 2013.
"Lawyers for detainees have posted on their social media pages several accounts
of security forces arbitrarily arresting many people merely for being in the
'wrong place at the wrong time' or possessing critical content on their phones,"
the rights group said.The attorney general's office said "not more than 1,000
protesters" had been questioned by prosecutors. It said prosecutors had orders
to "inspect the social media accounts and pages of those detained." Analysts
said they expected any further protests to meet a tough response as Sisi seeks
to preserve his security credentials. "Sisi has made it clear he intends to stay
in power for quite some time -– and protests will not change that calculus for
him," said H.A Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
in London. The president "appears... convinced that any protests that go beyond
a certain point would be destructive not only to his presidency, but the state
more generally," he told AFP.
HRW called on Egypt's Western allies to suspend their military assistance until
the government ceases its "gross violations of international law". "World
leaders should recognise that providing security and military assistance to
abusive forces won't bring stability to Egypt, and that what's needed instead is
a government that respects the rights and freedoms of the Egyptian people," said
its Middle East and North Africa director, Sarah Leah Whitson. In August 2013,
just over a month after Sisi toppled Morsi, police dispersed two camps full of
supporters of the Islamist leader in Cairo, killing about 800 people in clashes,
according to official figures. The government named the Muslim Brotherhood a
"terrorist organisation" later that year, but the crackdown on opposition has
extended to secular organisations and human rights activists. On Thursday, Aly
posted a one-minute missive which included extracts from previous videos and
footage from riots in 2011 and later, juxtaposed against declarations by Sisi.
But while the exiled critic's videos have gained huge traction -- shared
millions of times online -- they have provoked fervent counter-attacks from the
president's backers, using the hashtags #longliveSisi and #theywantchaos. For
those supporters, Sisi's six years at the helm -- including five as president --
have shown him to be a bulwark against the insecurity and political
disintegration unleashed by the Arab Spring elsewhere, notably in Libya and
Syria.
Seven Nigerian troops killed in militant ambush
AFP/Friday, 27 September 2019
Militants killed seven Nigerian soldiers this week in an ambush on a military
convoy in the restive northeast of the country, a senior military officer told
AFP Friday. Fighters aligned to ISIS on Wednesday attacked the troops with heavy
guns and rocket-propelled grenades as they travelled outside the town of Gubio,
triggering a fierce battle. “We lost seven soldiers when the pickup conveying
the troops was hit by an RPG,” said the officer, asking not to be identified.
Another military source confirmed the attack by fighters from the Islamic State
West Africa Province (ISWAP) group but did not give a death toll. ISIS’s
propaganda arm issued a statement and short video claiming its fighters killed
14 troops and captured two others in the attack, according to SITE Intelligence
which monitors jihadist activities worldwide. They said they seized weapons and
ammunition as well as a military truck in the ambush. The military officer
insisted “nobody was captured alive” and dismissed the ISIS claims as
propaganda. He said the insurgents “lost a truck and some fighters in the
ambush”. ISWAP is a splinter faction that broke away from Boko Haram in 2016. It
has focused on attacking the military since mid-2018 while Boko Haram is known
for hitting civilian targets. The decade-long extremist militant conflict in
northeast Nigeria has killed 35,000 people and displaced around two million from
their homes. The violence had spread to neighboring Niger, Chad and Cameroon,
prompting a regional military coalition to fight the militants.
PM Johnson says he will obey the law, confident of Brexit
deal
ReutersFriday, 27 September 2019
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday his government will obey the
law and remains confident the country can leave the European Union with a deal.
Johnson has vowed that Britain will leave the bloc on Oct. 31 with or without a
divorce agreement, but parliament has passed a law to compel him to seek an
extension if he has not got an agreement by Oct. 19. He was asked on Friday if
he was looking for ways to delay or get around the new law, which he has dubbed
a “surrender act”. “We will obey the law, but we’re confident we can come out on
Oct. 31 and the best way to do that is to get a deal,” Johnson told reporters.
“That’s why the surrender act is so damaging,” he added. “It has had the effect
with our European friends making them think: ‘maybe parliament can block this
thing, maybe they will be forced to extend.’ If you’re in a negotiation that
obviously makes it more difficult.”
Philippines declares dengue outbreak an epidemic
The Associated Press, Manila/Friday, 27 September 2019
The Philippines' Department of Health has declared the country's outbreak of
dengue to be a national epidemic. The agency says Health Secretary Francisco
Duque III made the declaration Tuesday to improve the response to the outbreak
by allowing local governments to draw on a special Quick Response Fund. It says
the Philippines has recorded 146,062 cases of dengue from January through July
20 this year, 98 percent more than the same period in 2018. It says the outbreak
has caused 622 deaths. Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection found in
tropical countries worldwide. It can cause joint pain, nausea, vomiting and a
rash, and can cause breathing problems, hemorrhaging and organ failure in severe
cases.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on September 27-28/2019
Five ways to respond to Iran regime’s
aggression
د.مجيد رافيزادا: الطرق الخمسة للرد على عدائية النظام الإيراني
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78857/%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d8%b1%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%85%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b9/
There seems to be no end to the Iranian regime’s aggression and belligerence
domestically, regionally and globally. The leaders of Iran are making it clear
they will remain defiant as they insist on pursuing the regime’s dark hegemonic
ambitions in the Middle East.
Just in the last few months, Tehran has been directly or indirectly involved in
attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, striking Saudi Arabia’s oil plants, and
taking hostages. In addition, both the hard-liners and the so-called moderates
appear to be on the same page.
What options are available to effectively respond to the theocratic
establishment? Some politicians and policy analysts may recommend appeasing
Tehran in order to confront it. But any informed approach that aims to combat
Iran’s regional ambitions should not to be anchored in pursuing appeasement
policies toward the ruling mullahs. The appeasement route was tried for eight
years by the Obama administration and it failed. We can see the consequences of
this approach, with the Iranian-armed Houthis continuing to cause death and
destruction in Yemen, and Hezbollah operating in large swaths of Syrian
territory.
Instead of appeasing Iran, five policies must be carried out simultaneously. The
first is to weaken the Iranian regime’s ability to carry out asymmetric warfare.
Tehran mostly wields its power through its enhanced capabilities in conducting
asymmetric warfare using its proxies, terror and militia groups. Therefore it
follows that, if Iran’s proxies and militia groups are targeted and weakened,
Tehran loses a significant amount of its geopolitical, strategic and military
leverage.
In order to accomplish this objective, it is very important for the US to work
with its regional allies, such as Israel. Tel Aviv has been steadily expanding
its military campaign against Iranian-linked targets in the region. This
included carrying out a series of airstrikes in Syria and northern Baghdad last
month. In addition, the US can work more closely with Saudi Arabia to target the
Houthis.
The second policy is for the US to broaden and step up its “maximum pressure”
policy. One of the reasons that the Iranian leaders have been enraged is the
fact that this campaign is working. The latest Iranian actions against shipping
and Saudi Arabia are the desperate acts of a regime whose funding sources for
regional destabilization are drying up. The appeasement route was tried for
eight years by the Obama administration and it failed.
The sanctions have imposed significant pressure on the ruling clerics, to such
an extent that the Iranian leaders have been cutting funding to their proxies.
For instance, Tehran has found it extremely difficult to ship oil to Syria in
the last year, and many of Iran’s militants are not getting their salaries or
benefits.
Additional economic sanctions must be more precise and targeted. In other words,
the financial channels through which funds flow into the Islamic Republic’s
treasury must be disrupted. This includes further squeezing the regime’s main
revenue — oil exports — and detecting the fictitious and shell companies Iran
uses to carry out its illicit financial activities.
The US and its allies can also target specific individuals and institutions that
are engaged in supporting terror groups, advancing Tehran’s nuclear and
ballistic missile programs, and committing crimes against humanity abroad. For
instance, Washington could impose sanctions on Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence.
In addition, governments can utilize the International Criminal Court, the UN,
Amnesty International and other human rights organizations to hold the Iranian
regime accountable.
Third, through its economic leverage, the US must persuade its Western allies to
cut diplomatic relations with the Iranian regime. Tehran not only gains critical
legitimacy by maintaining ties with world powers, but the regime has also been
shown to use its embassies and consulates in foreign nations as an extended wing
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ministry of Intelligence in order
to carry out espionage or acts of terror. A series of assassination and
terrorist plots across Europe and North America, some successful and others not,
have been traced back to Tehran in recent years.
Fourth, the US and its allies need to more forcefully and publicly announce
their support for the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people, who seek to
set up a democratic system of governance in Iran. Domestic unrest has long lain
beneath the surface as Iranians, enduring a sluggish economy and falling living
standards, see billions of dollars go abroad to Tehran’s network of proxies.
Fifth, the Iranian regime should be made to understand that there is a powerful
and united military force ready to deter and respond to its aggression. If
Tehran believes that its destabilizing military adventurism will not trigger a
military response, the ruling mullahs will more likely continue to increase
their belligerent policies.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and
president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
The Muslim Brotherhood Must Be Confronted
توفيق حميد/كايتستون: ضروري جداً مواجهة جماعات الإخوان
المسلمين
Tawfik Hamid/Gatestone Institute/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78859/%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%82-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b6%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%ac/
The motto of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) states: “Allah is our objective. The
Prophet is our leader. The Qur’an is our constitution. Jihad is our way. Dying
in the way of Allah is our highest hope.” If “jihad is our way” and “the Quran
is our constitution,” it would irrational not to postulate that the MB and its
related groups in the U.S. endorse violence to change the U.S. constitution and
replace it with the Quran.
We cannot say at this stage that Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been brought fully
into modernity. We can say, however, that we have two leaders who want to — or
are actually are — taking their Muslim majority countries onto this path. This
is a nightmare for the MB, whose goal is to return the Muslim world to the time
of Islamic Caliphate. Designating the MB as a terrorist group can impede their
ability to resist the noble attempts of these leaders.
“The importance of identifying the Muslim brotherhood as a terrorist
organization could not be more clear to our national security and
counterterrorism strategy…. Designate the Muslim Brotherhood (MP) a foreign
terrorist organization beginning in Egypt and then on a country by country
basis. Libya, Syria, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and Yemen branches of the MB are the
most obvious follow-ons…. Stop engaging Muslim Brotherhood legacy groups in
government and media and NGO’s and recognize their Islamist terror sympathies,
misogyny, anti-Semitism, homophobia, and anti-American ideological
underpinnings. We must recognize that they are not the only voice for American
Muslims or any community of Muslims.” — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, hearing before the
Subcommittee on National Security of the Committee on Oversight and Government
Reform, House of Representatives, July 11, 2018.
According to Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, President and Founder of the American Islamic
Forum for Democracy, “The importance of identifying the Muslim brotherhood as a
terrorist organization could not be more clear to our national security and
counterterrorism strategy.” Pictured: Jasser testifies before the House Homeland
Security Committee on March 10, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Alex
Wong/Getty Images)
The White House has, since April, been considering officially designating the
Muslim Brotherhood (MB) a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This designation
would follow in the footsteps of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates, which have first-hand experience and understanding of the
serious threat the MB represents.
The MB’s modus operandi typically works through four stages: Preaching, sharing,
use of violence, full control. It would therefore be wise to confront them
sooner rather than later, before they manifest their full power.
Some of the organization’s sympathizers and apologists seem sincerely to believe
that the MB is a “moderate” group. Sadly, the evidence strongly suggests
otherwise. Let us consider some examples.
The MB’s ideological and political backing of the terrorist group Hamas, an
offshoot of the MB, is well-documented and publicly acknowledged. Although Hamas
claimed to have broken ties to the MB in 2017, apparently to try to improve its
ties with the Gulf States, observers were skeptical. While supposedly renouncing
all ties to the MB, according to the American Center for Democracy:
“… Sami Abu Zuhri denies all political, organizational or popular ties between
Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. However, he added that ideologically
Hamas belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood (Alarabiya.net, March 22, 2016).
Mahmoud al-Zahar made similar statements to Al-Sharq (quoted by Paltoday).”
That the MB through its affiliates continues to provide Hamas with material
support seems an open secret. U.S.-based members of the Muslim Brotherhood
established a Palestine Committee that was ultimately charged with the task of
raising funds to underwrite Hamas’s efforts to eliminate the state of Israel.
Hamas and the MB are reportedly still calling for Israel’s destruction.
Terrorist acts by Hamas against innocent civilians and children, even their own,
are still ongoing. In April 2018, the European Union condemned Hamas for
terrorism and its use of human shields, presumably to prevent Israel from
retaliating or to be able to show “dead babies” to the television cameras to
cause outrage against Israel, another victim in this plan.
The Qatar-based Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, who is called “one of the spiritual
fountainheads of the Muslim Brotherhood,” and who led the Friday prayer for the
group in Tahrir Square after the 2011 revolution in Egypt, has called suicide
bombing “a supreme form of jihad for the sake of Allah” and “heroic operations
of martyrdom.”
On October 6, 2012 the late Mohamed Morsi, former President of Egypt and a
high-ranking figure in the MB, invited Tariq Al-Zomor (the Islamist who
assassinated President Anwar Sadat) to an official celebration, while ignoring
the tradition of inviting President Sadat’s family to remember the 1973
Arab-Israel War. Morsi also urged Egyptians to “nurse children and grandchildren
on hatred for Jews and Zionists.”
So much for describing the MB as “moderate.”
The motto of the Muslim Brotherhood states:
“Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Qur’an is our
constitution (dostoorona; lit. constitution). Jihad is our way. Dying in the way
of Allah is our highest hope.”
If “jihad is our way” and “the Quran is our constitution,” it would irrational
not to postulate that the MB and its related groups in the U.S. endorse violence
to change the U.S. constitution and replace it with the Quran.
While some “peaceful” Islamic organizations describe jihad as an internal
spiritual quest or an “inner struggle,” the term is not typically used by
Islamic organizations to describe “peaceful” activities. The Qur’an clearly
says:
“So when the sacred months have passed away, then slay the idolaters wherever
you find them, and take them captives and besiege them and lie in wait for them
in every ambush, then if they repent and keep up prayer and pay the poor-rate,
leave their way free to them; surely Allah is Forgiving, Merciful.” – (Qur’an
9.5), Shakir translation.
And:”Slay them wherever you may catch them and expel them from the place from
which they expelled you. The sin of disbelief in God is greater than committing
murder. Do not fight them in the vicinity of the Sacred Mosque in Mecca unless
they start to fight. Then slay them for it is the recompense that the
disbelievers deserve.” – (Qur’an 2.191) Muhammad Sarwar translation.
In the Islamist vocabulary and MB motto, let us remember that the organization
Islamic Jihad, which assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, was not
seeking peaceful change. In mainstream Islamic sources, the definition of jihad
is predominantly described in terms of violence. As Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser,
President and Founder of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, noted in
congressional testimony:
The next slide looks at the logo. And I think it’s important to understand what
they are. They have not changed their logo. And at the bottom, under those
swords, which are not peaceful, that are not violent symbol, it says wei du
(ph).
And wei du (ph) is from chapter 8, verse 16 of the Koran, and it says “make
ready.” And it’s not the Boy Scouts’ “be prepared, make ready.” This is a
passage in the Koran that refers specifically to battle and preparing for
militancy. This, despite them coming to power in Tunisia and Egypt and
elsewhere, they never change the symbol and what they are.
One would need to twist the traditional meaning of the word jihad to prove that
it was actually meant in the peaceful sense of the word.
Another important point to consider is the otherwise surprising cooperation
between Shia Iran and the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, despite vast theological
differences. It is telling that Iran was one of the first countries to object to
President Trump’s announcement that he might designate the MB a terrorist
organization.
Any honest observer can see that both the Iranian Mullahs and the MB hate the
United States, share a global agenda to destroy Israel and, indeed, all of
Western civilization.
MB influence in Turkey is also worrisome. Over the past few decades, the MB and
their supporters have managed to Islamize a significant portion of Turkish
society. The current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is a strong supporter of
their organization. Imagine for a moment what might happen if the European Union
made the mistake of accepting Turkey as a member. Turkey could, as it has been
threatening to do anyway, dramatically facilitate the MB agenda simply by
providing entry visas for huge numbers of Islamists from across the Middle East.
They could quite literally flood Europe, which is already facing a possible
clash of civilizations, and, even without unleashing new waves of terror,
demographically change the future of the Europe forever.
The MB plan to force Europe to submit to their Islamic agenda can also be seen
in their strong influence in Qatar, one of the biggest producers of natural gas
on the planet, and where the country’s broadcaster, Al Jazeera, founded and
supported by Qatar’s ruling Al Thani family, is the main megaphone of the MB.
Qatar lavishly funds MB operations not only in the Middle East, but also in the
U.S. and Europe.
That Qatar has been trying to dominate the European gas market was made clear by
their support for terrorist groups in Syria to remove Al-Assad’s regime and
allow Qatari pipelines into Europe via Syria and then Turkey. This terror
campaign was not limited only to Sunnis in Syria; it has also been extended to
support for terrorist groups in other countries such as Egypt, Libya, and Iraq,
which can compete with Qatar in exporting energy to Europe. This level of
support for Sunni jihadi organizations could not possibly have happened without
collaboration with the MB, which is widely regarded as the mother of many of
these organizations.
Attempts by the MB to destabilize U.S. allies in the Muslim world, especially
Egypt and Saudi Arabia, also cannot be ignored. Both countries currently have
leaders who desire to take their countries into modernity and tolerance, and who
deserve Western support.
In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has admitted the role of “religious
ideology” in the terrorism problem there. He has confronted the religious
authorities, demanding that they provide a moderate interpretation of Islam that
does not encourage violence. He has even, as president (for the first time in
the history of Egypt), visited and celebrated Christmas mass in a Coptic church.
In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, otherwise known as MBS, has
taken unprecedented concrete steps on the path to modernity within the kingdom.
He has disbanded the religious police, begun empowering Saudi women, and for the
first time visited a Coptic church in Egypt.
We cannot say at this stage that these two countries have been brought fully
into modernity. We can say, however, that we have two leaders who want to — or
are actually are — taking their Muslim majority countries onto this path. This
is a nightmare for the MB, whose goal is to return the Muslim world to the time
of Islamic Caliphate. Designating the MB as a terrorist group can impede their
ability to resist the noble attempts of these leaders.
Adding to this, the alliance between the MB (and its related organizations and
sympathizers) with leftist groups in the U.S. can allow the MB to exert huge
influence on U.S. politics to benefit their Islamist agenda. The MB’s de facto
control of Islamic banking can only help them achieve their goal for the global
domination of their religious agenda.
Other Muslims agree. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in his 2018 testimony before the US House
of Representatives, concluded:
The importance of identifying the Muslim brotherhood as a terrorist organization
could not be more clear to our national security and counterterrorism strategy.
This will begin not only a necessary process of treating the cancer at its core
before it metastasizes rather than its byproducts after it has already spread….
I leave with you the following recommendations:
1. Designate the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) a foreign terrorist organization
beginning in Egypt and then on a country by country basis. Libya, Syria, Kuwait,
Jordan, Iraq and Yemen branches of the MB are the most obvious follow-ons…. But
I would recommend that the designation be taken in the country by country basis
and not a blanket global one, and only be driven by need to designate every
group in the world which is either a self–identified actual Muslim Brotherhood
organization or an obvious Islamist terror group. This designation is not only
an ideological one but one related to material, social, and militant support of
the Muslim Brotherhood as a salafi-jihadi movement…..
4. Develop foreign policy mechanisms to disincentivize Qatari and Turkish
government facilitation of the Muslim Brotherhood and its global affiliates
including those in the West. Considerations should include a move to suspend
Turkey from NATO (perhaps warranting a separate hearing on the very complex
U.S.- Turkey relations).
5. Lift up diverse pro-liberty, secular reformist Muslim voices beginning with
our Muslim Reform Movement and its allies within the Muslim community who are
anti-Islamist. Use that strategy and our Declaration of our Muslim Reform
Movement to identify allies within Muslim communities across the world.
6. Use the MB designation as a template to transition immediately from the
currently useless non-ideological center of gravity that relies on “Countering
Violent Extremism” (CVE) to a much more practical one centered on “Countering
Islamism” (CI) or (CVI).
7. Stop engaging Muslim Brotherhood legacy groups in government and media and
NGO’s and recognize their Islamist terror sympathies, misogyny, anti-Semitism,
homophobia, and anti-American ideological underpinnings. We must recognize that
they are not the only voice for American Muslims or any community of Muslims.
Finally, the MB’s threats to our modern human civilization and security cannot
be ignored and seriously need immediately to be confronted — and at all levels.
Dr. Tawfik Hamid, the author of Inside Jihad: How Radical Islam Works, Why It
Should Terrify Us, How to Defeat It, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the
Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Tehran’s We Did, We Didn’t Game
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/September 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78865/amir-taheri-tehrans-we-did-we-didnt-game-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%81/
How to take credit for a mischief you have committed but do not wish to own up
to?
This is the dilemma Tehran apologists face when discussing the latest
shenanigans in the region, including missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil
installations.
On the one hand they want to take credit for the attacks and cast the Khomeinist
regime as a mighty power capable of giving as good as it takes in a duel against
the American “Great Satan.” They try to cast Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the
little Tom Thumb taking on Donald Trump as the giant of the folk tale.On the
other hand, they try to cast Iran as an innocent victim, highlight the
sufferings of babies supposedly left without powdered milk and old women running
out of medication.
Wrapping up that theme is the claim that the Islamic Republic has done
absolutely nothing that merits sanctions, and that the latest attacks were the
work of Yemeni Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s PMF or even the army of
djinns commanded by Zaafar al-Jinni from the 1001 Nights.
This double narrative is not limited to Tehran’s propagandists; it is also
adopted by some Western commentators who, for reasons of their own, think that
in any conflict between the United State and an adversary, the United States
should automatically get the blame.
In the past couple of weeks, Iran’s state-controlled media have made ample use
of op-eds and TV shows in which the “Blame America First” crowd celebrate the
recent attacks on tankers and oil installations as Tehran’s legitimate response
to American “pressures.”
The daily Kayhan, expressing the views of “Supreme Guide” Khamenei devotes front
page space to comments by Fareed Zakaria a “Muslim American” TV anchor who
claims that the Islamic Republic by “disrupting navigation, downing an American
drone, the activation of surrogate forces and recent attacks on Saudi oil
installations” has rendered Trump’s policy ineffective.
Kayhan also reports comments by Richard Haas, a former State Department
official, who insists that Trump’s policy has failed and that Iran has shown its
capacity to hit back where it hurts.
RAJA NEWS, run by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), runs an article by Reuel Marc
Geresht from Foreign Policy magazine praising Khamenei as “the most successful
leader in the Middle East for the past 75 years”.
Geresht claims that with recent attacks on tankers and oil installations,
Khamenei has “humiliated America and struck at Saudis whom he hates.”
Another IRGC site, FARS NEWS, runs a similar analysis, this time from the Crisis
Group, a Brussels-based research outfit funded by American financier George
Soros.
The official agency IRNA cites a CNN interview with Mohammad Javad Zarif in
which the Iranian Foreign Minister says “the olive branch” is on the table but
warns that more tension is possible, implying that the latest attacks were at
least inspired by Tehran.
Tehran’s Iranian-born apologists in the West also play the
“we-did-it-but-we-didn’t-do-it” game. Persian language radio and TV programs run
by US, British and French governments host real or imagined experts who claim
that while the attacks came in retaliation to Trump’s “maximum pressure”, the
Islamic Republic knew nothing of them.
A former Khomeinist minister, based in London, attacks those who had depicted
the structural weaknesses of Iran’s defenses by boasting about “the exactitude
and effectiveness of the recent attacks on Saudi oil installations.”
A BBC Persian TV commentator says that in a recent airport encounter with
Iranian travelers returning home he joined them in cheering the recent attacks
but then told them with a wink that “we shouldn’t let the world know that we did
it!”
The history of taking credit for terrorist operations while denying involvement
in them is as old as the Iranian Revolution itself.
In 1978, Khomeinist operators set an Abadan cinema on fire and caused the death
of over 400 people. The supreme leader, then in France, instantly blamed the
Shah’s secret service SAVAK. It was not until 2003 that the Islamic Republic
admitted that the fire had been the work of Khomeinist revolutionaries who had
not realized that the emergency exits were all blocked.
In November 1979 when “students” raided the US Embassy in Tehran and seized its
diplomats’ hostage, Khomeini claimed that he knew nothing of it but sent a
special emissary supposedly to run the show.
Once he had realized that the Americans would do nothing, he claimed the embassy
raid as “Manifest Victory “(Fatah al-Mobin in Arabic) and a sign that his brand
of religion was to conquer the world.
That was the start of hostage taking as a feature of Khomeinist diplomacy. For
two decades Tehran organized the capture of over 100 hostages from 22 countries,
mostly Western. All the time, however, Tehran denied any involvement in
hostage-taking operations but negotiated the release of the captives in exchange
for money and arms.
Over two dozen attacks on foreign embassies in Tehran and the brief capture and
beating up of numerous foreign diplomats in the past four decades have been
blamed on “rogue elements” who were later honored and promoted within the
regime. Of the 60 “students” who initiated the first hostage-taking operation,
40 rose to high positions including Vice President, Cabinet minister, governor,
IRGC general and ambassador.
Iranian agents killed 117 dissidents in13 European countries, plus Turkey and
Dubai, always taking credit and denying involvement.
For four decades, the mullahs have successfully practiced their “do-and-deny”
tactic thanks to indulgence, not to say cowardice, of Western leaders and the
pathetic anti-Americanism of some Western pseudo-intellectuals.
Those Western leaders fell victim to the illusion expressed by President George
H. W. Bush in his ridiculous phrase “Goodwill breeds goodwill”!
Western anti-American intellectuals who become apologists for the mullahs are
victims of their inability to conceive of a situation in which while America may
be bad its adversary may be worse.
Stalin signed his pact with Hitler because the Soviet Communist Party regarded
“Imperialist” America as “arch enemy”. Some Western intellectuals hailed the
pact for the same reason.
Then we had America versus the Third Reich. Later, America vs. the Soviet
Empire, vs. the Vietcong and Khmer Rouge, vs. the Afghan Taliban, vs. Saddam
Hussein. In every case, even if America was not the shining city on the hill,
its adversary at the time was much worse.
Apologists for the Islamic Republic do not do it a service. By endorsing its
illusions, and shielding it against deserved criticism, they encourage its worst
tendencies- tendencies that could cost Iran and the region more than they
imagine.
Welcome to the End of the Process
Tony Badran/Hoover Institution/September 27/2019
Speaking to reporters in August, President Trump said he would likely wait until
after the Israeli elections in September to unveil his peace plan for Israel and
the Palestinians. Although this plan has been long in the making, with the
exception of the proposal to allocate investment funds to the Palestinian
territories and neighboring countries, its details have remained unknown; and
that’s a good thing. A peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians
is the “toughest deal of all,” the American president remarked. Perhaps. It also
might be, in and of itself, the least relevant. In fact, progress on this front
is as low a priority for America in the Middle East as you can get. The real
interest for the United States lies elsewhere. The Trump administration appears
to recognize this reality full well, as the steps it has taken so far suggest.
The decision to turn peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians (and,
alongside them, on and off, the Syrians) the focus of American policy in the
Middle East is a relatively recent development which dates back to the end of
the Cold War. The move reflected a shift away from sound geostrategy which
focused on the real states of the region in the context of Great Power
competition with the Soviet Union. After the fall of the Soviet Union, US
policymakers believed things would now fall into place in the Middle East, and
the region, too, would enjoy the “peace dividend.” Ignoring the region’s own
geopolitical energies, the post-Cold War period has centered instead on the
non-strategic, fragmented polities of the Levant. This marked the birth of the
“peace process” industry, which was a centerpiece of US regional policy from the
1990’s onward.
During the Cold War, the “peace process” referred to a particular geostrategic
move which had nothing to do with the Palestinians. Rather, it referred to
negotiations between Israel and Egypt. Since the Six Day War, Israel’s value as
a powerful American ally had been growing steadily in a region awash with
Moscow’s clients. This included the Palestinians, whom the US viewed, rightly,
as proxy groups of the Soviets or of their Arab clients, like Libya and Iraq.
The objective of the peace process, namely in the period following the Yom
Kippur war to 1979, was to complete Egypt’s move — an actual state with regional
influence — out of the Soviet orbit.
After the Cold War, the peace process took on new meaning, as it became
untethered from its original geostrategic context and function. Instead, US
policymakers convinced themselves the conflict between Israel and the
Palestinians was the central dynamic preoccupying and driving the behavior of
regional states. Therefore, US policymakers believed, achieving peace between
Israel and the Palestinians was the strategic priority in the Middle East. It
became a self-evident truth that everything depended on resolving this conflict
and on giving the Palestinians their own state. The issue was one of technical
details, concerning the borders of this future state.
Linkage made Israeli peace with the Palestinians (and, at other times, the
Syrians) the key to the advancement of US interests in the region. It grossly
inflated the importance not just of the Palestinians, but also of the fractured
Levant. Moreover, linkage made US policy, as well as increased Israeli
cooperation with US-allied Arab states, hostage to the maximalist demands of the
most radical elements of the region, namely Iran and the Assad regime, who
continued the historical practice of using the Palestinians as instruments to
further their regional objectives.
From a somewhat different vantage point, the Obama administration also viewed
the Palestinians as a useful instrument in a wider geostrategic play. The Obama
administration used the peace process, especially the issue of Israeli
settlement building activity, to pressure Israel as then-President Obama
realigned American interests in the Middle East with Iran. In its final days in
office, the Obama White House took this realignment to its logical conclusion by
orchestrating the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 2334 in late
December 2016. The resolution calls upon all states, “to distinguish, in their
relevant dealings, between the territory of the State of Israel and the
territories occupied since 1967.”
By orchestrating the passage of this resolution, the Obama administration
effectively gave US endorsement to the rejectionists’ maximalist position on the
1967 lines. Aside from knifing Israel on the way out, President Obama also
sought to tie his successor’s hands.
This gambit has proved a failure as the Trump administration has taken the polar
opposite approach. Even as his administration’s plan remained under wraps,
President Trump implemented measures that not only have desanctified the 1967
lines, but also largely taken them off the table. Namely, President Trump moved
the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan
Heights.
The President’s actions were accompanied by a parallel effort in Congress. In
particular, Sen. Ted Cruz has moved to hollow out UNSCR 2334, especially the
core language about distinguishing between territories Israel controlled before
and after June 1967. Cruz spearheaded an early Congressional push to recognize
Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan, has engaged in official trips to East
Jerusalem, including and especially around the new embassy, and introduced
language funding joint US-Israeli research projects across the Green Line.
The elements of the Trump administration’s plan which have been rolled out could
also be read as undercutting a key component of the rejectionist position: the
so-called “right of return” for Palestinian refugees in neighboring Arab
countries. At the “Peace to Prosperity” conference, which the administration
organized in Bahrain in June, White House senior adviser Jared Kushner presented
a plan to invest $50 billion in the Palestinian territories and in Egypt, Jordan
and Lebanon. While the investment aims to encourage “Strengthening Regional
Development and Integration,” it also might suggest an incentive to turn the
page on the “right of return” fantasy. At any rate, this ought to be the US
position, thereby putting an end to American indulgence of Palestinian
maximalism, which the Obama White House chose to sign onto with UNSCR 2334.
As of now, there’s no information on the proposed shape or nature of the
Palestinian polity. In July, the US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman
pointedly spoke of “Palestinian autonomy” and self-governance, but shied away
from any talk of Palestinian “statehood.” The history of the Levant, from
ancient times to the present, is full of such polities acting as buffer or
vassal states for larger neighboring powers. To be sure, the existing
arrangement between Israel and Jordan in the West Bank is the only thing
preventing that territory from becoming an Iranian satellite, more or less like
Gaza, the Iranian outpost between Israel and Egypt.
This, after all, is the main point of the entire exercise. President Trump’s
approach returns the issue of the Palestinians to its real size and function in
the Levant as well as in US policy in the region. It readjusts America’s focus
away from the fractured Levant and back on a sound geostrategic approach
centered on the states on the Levant’s outer rim.
Bearing this in mind, the US cannot allow itself to be sucked into the
irrelevant minutiae of the “peace process” enterprise and such fictions as
“state institutions” in the Levant — already a proven failure in Iraq and
Lebanon, where the state institution-building chimera has only strengthened
Iran’s position.
Instead, the path forward for the US is to continue to strengthen Israel’s
position as a security pillar in the region while shoring up the US-allied Arab
states and fostering closer cooperation between them and the Israelis against
Iran. Key to this effort is the dismantling of the central tenets of the
rejectionist position, namely the 1967 lines. This would not only nullify the
Obama administration’s attempt to realign the US position, but also would make
it all but impossible for that legacy to be revived in the future.
What matters for the US in the region is to consolidate its state alliance
system to contain Iran and its assets. Progress in peace talks with the
Palestinians is a matter of far less concern.