LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 19/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to
drink, and do not keep worrying.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/22-31/:”Jesus said to his
disciples, ‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will
eat, or about your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the
body more than clothing. Consider the ravens: they neither sow nor reap, they
have neither storehouse nor barn, and yet God feeds them. Of how much more value
are you than the birds! And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your
span of life? If then you are not able to do so small a thing as that, why do
you worry about the rest? Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil
nor spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one
of these. But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and
tomorrow is thrown into the oven, how much more will he clothe you you of little
faith! And do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to
drink, and do not keep worrying. For it is the nations of the world that strive
after all these things, and your Father knows that you need them. Instead,
strive for his kingdom, and these things will be given to you as well.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on September 18-19/2019
Arrest Warrant for Lebanese-American Who Worked for Israel
Aoun to Travel to New York for General Assembly Meeting
Lebanon Dollar Bonds Jump after Saudi Arabia Pledges Financial Support
Lebanese economic growth zero if not negative, acknowledges Finance Minister
Khalil
ESCWA Road Opens to Public Friday
Hariri Meets CESE Head, Italian Ambassador
Lebanese Army Chief: No Illegal Crossings on the Border
Relative of Assad’s Wife Disappears in Lebanon
Explosions heard from occupied Shebaa Farms resulting from enemy army exercises
Lebanese Cabinet approves 14 articles of the 2020 budget
Jumblatt, Najari tackle outcome of Egypt visit
Finance Minister: Budget 2020 does not include new taxes as people can no longer
tolerate any
Rampling's 1 year anniversary blog 'Twelve months in Lebanon: It can sometimes
be hard to stay optimistic... but here's why I do'
Berri: Sanctions against Lebanon affect all Lebanese
Hariri announces suspension of work at Future TV: Difficult decision due to
financial reasons
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on September 18-19/2019
Netanyahu, Gantz Deadlocked after Israeli Polls
Reports: Netanyahu Wanted War in Gaza but Israeli Military Refused
Soleimani in Baghdad confers with Shiite proxies on strikes against US forces in
Iraq, also Israel
Pompeo meets with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for talks on Aramco attacks
Saudi to Unveil 'Evidence' Linking Iran to Attacks as US Weighs Response
Source: 'High Probability' Saudi Attack Launched from Iran Base
US Hopes for UN Action over Aramco Attacks
Saudi Crown Prince: Attack on Aramco Facilities Dangerous Escalation Against
Int’l Community
153,000 Syrians Exited Jordan within a Year
Turkey, Iran, Russia Discussed Four Issues at Summit
Suicide Bomber Detonates Inside Govt Building in East Afghanistan
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on September 18-19/2019
Soleimani in Baghdad confers with Shiite proxies on strikes against US forces in
Iraq, also Israel/DEBKAfile/September 18/2019
Trump Clearly Wants Rapprochement With Iran. Israel Can’t Let That Happen/
Yossi Mansharof and Jason M. Brodsky/Haaretz/September 18/2019
Next for Turkey? Nuclear Weapons/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/September
18/2019
"Jack... Is a Really Kind, Funny Kid... Totally Non-violent."/Andrew Ash/Gatestone
Institute/September 18/2019
Reconstruction may be underway but Syria remains unstable/Kerry Boyd
Anderson/Arab News/September 18, 2019
Netanyahu's era is over, Israel is on a new path/Sima Kadmon|/Ynetnews/September
18/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on September 18-19/2019
Arrest Warrant for Lebanese-American Who Worked for Israel
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 18/2019
A Lebanese judge issued an arrest warrant Tuesday for a Lebanese American who
confessed he'd worked for Israel during its occupation of Lebanon for nearly two
decades, Lebanese judicial officials said. The officials said acting military
investigative judge Najat Abu Shakra postponed the questioning of Amer Fakhoury
at the Military Court in Beirut pending permission from Lebanon's Bar
Association for an American lawyer to attend. The officials said Fakhoury told
the judge he wants the American lawyer to be present and since she had no
permission from the Bar Association, the judge decided to postpone the
questioning. No date has been set for the next session, said the officials who
spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. Fakhoury was detained
after returning to his native Lebanon from the U.S. earlier this month. He had
worked as a senior warden at the Khiam Prison in southern Lebanon that was run
by an Israeli-backed militia, known as the South Lebanon Army, until Israel
ended an 18-year occupation of the area in 2000. "The Department of State does
not comment on cases involving American citizens due to privacy considerations,"
a State Department official said. Outside the court, scores of people gathered,
including former Khiam prison detainees, some of whom demanded the death penalty
for Fakhoury. "First of all we want the military court to deliver the death
sentence by hanging for Amer Fakhoury and all those like him, whether they are
inside Lebanon or outside, who are trying to erase their history and to return
to Lebanon," said Firyal Hammoud, former inmate of Khiam prison. "We do not
accept less than a public death sentence."Lebanon and Israel have been
officially at war since Israel's creation in 1948. Human rights groups have said
in the past that Khiam prison was a site of torture and detention without trial
before it was abandoned in 2000. Israel denies the allegations. Hundreds of
former Lebanese members of the militia had fled to Israel, fearing reprisals if
they remained in Lebanon. Others stayed and faced trial, receiving lenient
sentences. Fakhoury was living in Dover, New Hampshire and local media reported
that the family owns a restaurant there. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu once
met them at a grape leaves-making contest and talked about their shared Lebanese
heritage, according to local media.
Aoun to Travel to New York for General Assembly Meeting
Naharnet/September 18/2019
President Michel Aoun is scheduled to deliver Lebanon’s speech at the annual
meetings of the United General Assembly held between September 23-27 in New
York. The President will be leading Lebanon’s delegation to NY, where he will
meet with several Arab and foreign heads of states on the sidelines of the
meeting. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil will join the delegation later on, after
chairing the 2019 Lebanese Diaspora Energy conference (LDE) in the United
States.
Lebanon Dollar Bonds Jump after Saudi Arabia Pledges Financial Support
Naharnet/September 18/2019
Lebanon's dollar-dominated government bonds rose on Wednesday after Saudi
Arabian pledges to provide financial support for the Mediterranean country.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan reportedly said the kingdom was in
talks with the Lebanese government to provide financial support for Lebanon,
media reports said. The 2037 issue rose 1.9 cents to 64.88 cents in the dollar,
while 2029 due bonds rose 1.8 cents to 64 cents in the dollar, according to
Tradeweb data.
Lebanese economic growth zero if not negative, acknowledges
Finance Minister Khalil
Arab News/September 18, 2019
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s economic growth is zero if not negative, leading to pressure
on the central bank’s foreign currency reserves, Finance Minister Ali Hassan
Khalil said on Wednesday. Khalil also said Lebanon will “very soon” start
measures to issue about $2 billion of foreign currency bonds.
In response to questions about difficulties some Lebanese have faced in
obtaining dollars, Khalil said that “there was not much liquidity in people’s
hands” but that this had “no impact” and that banks were maintaining the pegged
exchange rate. Khalil was giving details at a news conference of the 2020 draft
state budget, which is aimed at reducing the deficit. The new budget would
include no new taxes or fees, he said. “The level of growth went back to zero,
if not negative, and therefore this matter led to an increase in the pressure on
(the central bank) reserve in foreign currencies, (and) the accumulation of the
deficit in the treasury,” Khalil said. The cost of debt servicing had also moved
higher with increased interest rates, he said. One of the world’s most heavily
indebted states, Lebanon is aiming to drive through long-postponed reforms to
put the public finances on a sustainable path. The impetus has grown due to a
stagnant economy and a slowdown in inflows of hard currency from Lebanese
abroad, which has long been a key source of financing for the state and its
current account deficit. The Lebanese pound has been pegged at its current level
against the US dollar for more than two decades and the government has vowed it
will be kept there. Some Lebanese importers say they have found it harder or
more expensive to acquire dollars in recent weeks. “The economic situation is
tough but we are not a collapsing country at the financial level ... and we
still have the ability to meet needs,” Khalil said. “Yes, there is not much
liquidity in foreign currencies in people’s hands in the market, but the dollar
exchange rate is still maintained in the banks. “What we are feeling is that
small cash in people’s hands is not available, outside the framework of (bank)
transactions ... but we want to say that this has no impact,” he added.
ESCWA Road Opens to Public Friday
Naharnet/September 18/2019
Major roads near a U.N. building in Downtown Beirut, ESCWA, will soon be open
24/7 after an eight year closure imposed in 2011 as part of security measures to
protect the building. Minister of Interior and Municipalities Raya al-Hassan and
ESCWA Executive Secretary Rola Dashti held a joint press conference on Tuesday,
announcing the opening of the road linking Downtown Beirut to Blvd. Salim Salam.
In 2011, roads leading to the U.N. Economic and Social Committee for Western
Asia (ESCWA) headquarters in Downtown Beirut were closed. The move drew
criticism then as it affected the traffic given that the roads near ESCWA are
vital for commuters. Dashti commended Hasan for “the great efforts she is making
not only at the level of Lebanon, but also at the regional level." "She is an
honorable model for Arab women," she said. "We have prioritized solutions that
ensure the safety and security of United Nations personnel, all the while
preventing burdens on the commercial center of the country," Dashti added. "As
some may already know, the roads have been closed under certain security
conditions that Lebanon was going through. The conditions have changed and the
security situation has stabilized, and we, like ESCWA, support the stability and
economic and social development of this country." "Today, we are sending a
message to the international community and foreign investors that Lebanon is
stable and secure. We hope that the actions of the United Nations, in all its
organs, will help Lebanon improve its economy, better its living conditions and
create jobs for young people," she added. For her part, Hasan said: "When I
assumed my duties as Minister of Interior, I took it upon myself to take certain
steps, albeit small, to improve the lives of citizens and facilitate their
affairs."Hasan said the road linking Downtown to Salim Salam tunnel would be
open by Friday, while the opposite lane will be opened after one month. “We hope
to have made a simple step to improve the people's daily lives," the minister
said.
Hariri Meets CESE Head, Italian Ambassador
Naharnet/September 18/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri met at the Grand Serail on Tuesday with President of
the French Economic, Social and Environmental Council CESE, Patrick Bernasconi,
accompanied by the French Ambassador Bruno Foucher, in the presence of President
of the Economic and Social Council CES Charles Arbid. The visit has tackled
several issues including the PM’s visit to France to help implement CEDRE
decisions. After the meeting, Bernasconi said: “It is with great pleasure that I
met with the Prime Minister, in an important visit dedicated to the signing of
an agreement between the Lebanese CES at the invitation of Charles Arbid and the
French CESE. We spoke about civil society, the role it can play within the
institutions and what positive contribution it can make. “We also mentioned a
number of more economic topics like the place of French companies here in
Lebanon. We also talked about his trip next Friday, September 20, to France,
during which he will meet with the French President and some large French
companies. These meetings are important because they will allow to start a
project on which we base much hope, the CEDRE project. France is very attached
to this project as a tool to revitalize the economy and bring some positive
solutions to the difficulties encountered. These are positive signs and I hope
they will be considered as such by all stakeholders”. Hariri then received
Italian Ambassador to Lebanon Massimo Marotti who said after the meeting: “I met
with the PM and we discussed the bilateral relations, focusing on the follow up
of Rome Conference and the preparation of the CEDRE conference follow up
mechanism. We are working on financial facilities for joint ventures between
Lebanese and Italian companies that will be finalized soon.”
Lebanese Army Chief: No Illegal Crossings on the Border
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Lebanon’s Army Chief General Joseph Aoun has said that the crossings on the
Lebanese border with Syria are in better condition than they were years ago.
“There are no illegal crossings, but some loopholes that need to be shut," he
said on Tuesday. Aoun's remarks came during a joint tactical exercise carried
out by the 1st Land Border Regiment in al-Arida border area of Akkar. Units from
the General Directorate of General Security, the General Directorate of Internal
Security Forces, Lebanese Red Cross, and the General Directorate of Civil
Defense participated in the drill. The exercise simulates thwarting the
infiltration of terrorist groups that carried out a suicide bombing at Arida
crossing point. Aoun praised the performance of the soldiers who participated in
the exercise, noting that the drill comes in line with the integrated strategy
for border management, which is expected to be approved by the government so
that it comes into force. The army and the rest of the security forces prepare
to implement the strategy through joint training and exercises, said Aoun.He
indicated that the drill revealed professionalism in coordination between the
army and various security apparatuses during a terrorist attack, which takes
place for the first time at the border. This asserts that security of border
crossings are “the responsibility of all the security forces, not just the
army,” according to the General. He addressed the units saying that the
crossings are in better condition now thanks to their efforts in maintaining
security and control of the border. He added that there are no illegal
crossings, but some gaps that needed to be closed. The army commander stressed
the importance of the border regiments, pointing out that the leadership
provides them with all the equipment and training to facilitate their task in
controlling the border and prevent smuggling, which is a top priority.
Relative of Assad’s Wife Disappears in Lebanon
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Reports said Tuesday that Merhef Akhras, the cousin of Syrian first lady Asma
Assad, was “kidnapped” in Beirut last week. The Lebanese National News Agency
said that Akhras, the son of prominent businessmen Tarif Akhras, disappeared
last Thursday under suspicious circumstances on the road between Aley and
Chtaura while traveling to Damascus. The man’s father is the cousin of Fawaz al-Akhras,
the father of Asma Assad. A local radio station reported that Akhras’ wife
received a telephone call from the area of east Bekaa from her husband’s Syrian
number, asking that she pay $2 million for his release.
Akhras’ car was found parked in Aley. Local LBC television said that Akhras, who
is in his 40s, had moved to Lebanon three years ago. According to Syrian
opposition figures, Tarif owns several food factories, including rice and sugar
in Homs. One opposition source said that Tarif acts on behalf of Asma in several
investment projects in the banking, real estate and food industries. In 2014,
Britain’s High Court ordered a 12 month jail term for Tarif due to breach of
contract in a deal with Archer Daniels Midland for food imports to Syria. Akhras
had failed to pay $26 million to ADM for corn and soybeans supplied by the
commodities house for import to Syria in 2011. EU and Swiss sanctions were
imposed on Akhras for giving support to Syrian authorities.
Explosions heard from occupied Shebaa Farms resulting from enemy army exercises
NNA -Wed 18 Sep 2019
Explosions have been heard from the occupied Shebaa Farms, resonating in the
villages of Hasbaya and Arqoub, resulting from military exercises carried out by
the Israeli enemy army, extending to the Golan Heights, amid reconnaissance
flights over the occupied Shebaa Farms, the NNA correspondent reported.
Lebanese Cabinet approves 14 articles of the 2020 budget
NNA -Wed 18 Sep 2019
Following the cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Saad Hariri at the Grand
Serail, Acting Minister of Information Wael Abu Faour read the following
official information:
"The cabinet held a meeting at the Grand Serail chaired by Prime Minister Hariri
to continue the discussion that began yesterday at the Presidential Palace
during the budget session.
At the beginning of the meeting, Premier Hariri stressed the importance of this
discussion and invited everyone to shoulder their responsibilities. He added
that we could use the discussion on the 2019 budget as a basis for discussion,
but he asked us to go further in the reform measures. He warned against
returning to the endless discussions that took place during the previous budget
debate. He also called for intensive and successive sessions to approve the
budget and meet constitutional deadlines, and even to be ahead of constitutional
deadlines to give the necessary positive impression.
He assured that if the Minister of Finance has set a percentage of the deficit,
we must strive to reduce it further. According to the President of the Council,
all the political forces gathered in the Council of Ministers bear a great
responsibility in these difficult economic and financial conditions, but he
hoped that the discussion on the budget, the reform measures and the launching
of major projects will lead to resolve the economic and financial situation.
Then the Minister of Finance gave a more detailed explanation than the one he
presented yesterday. He said he started reading the proposals submitted by the
parliamentary blocs. Yesterday, a proposal from the block Strong Lebanon began
to be examined.
Other political forces also said they have suggestions and ideas that would be
presented in writing, including the Lebanese Forces. It was agreed that the
basis of the discussion would be in accordance with the document presented by
the Minister of Finance, who is authorized to submit the budget to the Council
of Ministers.
The Minister of Finance will review other ideas positively and submit them to
the Council of Ministers for discussion to take advantage of new ideas.
The debate focused on the budget articles and 14 of the 32 articles were
approved. We reached Article 15. Prime Minister Hariri asked us to have a more
in-depth discussion on Monday during the Cabinet meeting at 4 pm, and ministers
will of course be invited by the secretariat of the Council of Ministers.
Article 16 was discussed in a preliminary way and was not approved.
Question: Was the electricity article discussed?
Abu Faour: It was discussed and the proposal was to ask for 1.5 trillion as an
advance from treasury, but some ministers felt that we might need a bigger
advance. When we finished the budget discussion, we discussed the quarries plan
agreed yesterday.
What I can confirm about the atmosphere in the Council of Ministers is that
everyone is aware of the economic and financial reality and acts with positive
logic.
The discussions that took place were positive. This time, I can confirm that we
benefited from the discussions that took place in previous budget sessions, and
things are encouraging and reassuring.
Question: Has the gasoline crisis been discussed?
Abu Faour: No, this question has not been discussed yet. But on the quarries
master plan, the Minister of the Environment has been very positive in today's
debate. The basic logic is to preserve the environment, so we agree with him on
this point.
Question: Does this mean that you overcame the tension with Minister Ghassan
Atallah?
Abu Faour: It was not a topic of discussion.
Jumblatt, Najari tackle outcome of Egypt visit
NNA - Wed 18 Sep 2019
Chairman of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, met at his
residence in Clemenceau with Egyptian Ambassador Nazih Najari, in the presence
of former Minister Ghazi Aridi, with talks touching on the latest developments.
It was an occasion to review the outcomes of Jumblatt's recent visit to Egypt
and his meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
Finance Minister: Budget 2020 does not include new taxes as
people can no longer tolerate any
NNA - Wed 18 Sep 2019
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil tackled in a press conference the draft
budget 2020, saying "the 2020 budget does not include any new taxes because
people can no longer tolerate that. The State must continue to work, and there
should be a follow-up on laws and decrees complementary to the general
budget.""We are continuing the same approach adopted in the 2019 budget, in a
bid to reduce deficit, or at least maintain what has been achieved, without
overestimating the reduction of expenditures, and while working to secure
additional resources," the minister said. "Therefore, the figures presented in
the 2020 budget are realistic, provided that there is no additions in the
budget, so it could pass smoothly in the House of Representatives," Khalil went
on to say, stressing that "the pressure on our economy is immense, and growth
has returned to zero if not negative. This has doubled the pressure on the
Central Bank."
Assuring that the 2019 Budget was praised by International parties, Khalil
stressed that "we will proceed from the current deficit rate and will try to
maintain it in the budget of 2020."
Khalil said "our aim is to increase the confidence of the Lebanese in the State
through achieving an acceptable growth rate. This requires a return to the law
and good management of public finances. Regulators are highly concerned with
this matter. We must also restore State rights by restoring the management of
public utilities.”
Rampling's 1 year anniversary blog 'Twelve months in
Lebanon: It can sometimes be hard to stay optimistic... but here's why I do'
NNA -Wed 18 Sep 2019
In his one year anniversary blog, entitled "12 months in Lebanon: 'It can
sometimes be hard to stay optimistic... but here's why I do', British Ambasador
to Lebanon, Chris Rampling wrote: "This time last year was one of the highlights
of my career - presenting Queen Elizabeth's letter to President Aoun that
nominated me as Ambassador. The anniversary has allowed reflection on the year:
for Lebanon, and for the UK.
My first 12 months in Lebanon has been remarkable. Rolls Royce and MEA signed
our largest ever bilateral trade deal. I met the 10,000th Lebanese soldier
trained by the UK, and one of the UK's most modern naval frigates came to
Beirut. We hosted the first official visit by a British Royal, and partnered
with the National Library for a stunning celebration of the UK in Lebanon. I
have seen the results of our sustained work with women in Parliament, on
community policing in Beirut, and in the education sector. And I have been lucky
enough to visit every Governorate, meeting incredible people, with remarkable
and inspiring stories. After we changed our Travel Advice, I became the first
British Ambassador in 10 years to attend the Baalbek Festival.
Lebanon
But supporting Lebanon has not been a walk along the corniche. Efforts to
stabilise the economy have been the main theme. The UK supports the Government's
programme and CEDRE: economic reform will be painful, but it is not optional and
it is urgent. Debt must come down, the books be better balanced, and domestic
and international confidence rekindled. Only then can Lebanon fulfil its
enormous potential. There are plenty of opportunities for more Trade and
Investment, and we have a new UK Trade Envoy. But this will not come just
because we wish it. If things do not change, the economy will not recover.
The effects of the Syrian crisis have also been a theme. I have opened UK-funded
community centres in the Bekaa, the fishing port in Jiyeh, and seen a new apple
factory in Jezzine. Listened to Syrian children in schools, and adults in
communities. We will continue to support Lebanon, and to look for new areas in
which we can work together. Standing with both host communities and the refugees
themselves.
The last thing Lebanon needs is more insecurity, and the isolated attack in
Tripoli on LAF and ISF officers was deeply saddening. Your security services -
of whom we remain proud partners - do critical work, in difficult environments.
But other security concerns are also serious. Just after I arrived, there were
the tunnels to Israel, and in recent weeks the tension between Hizballah and
Israel. The region is uncertain. Furthermore, the UK recognised in February that
it was no longer tenable to distinguish between the military and political wings
of Hizballah and proscribed the latter. We continue to call for calm and full
respect by all for UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the Baabda
Declaration. I believe passionately that Lebanon's security and that of its
people can and will only be served by respect by all of these commitments.
UK
And obviously, I cannot reflect on the last 12 months without thinking about the
UK. We have this year seen a change in Prime Minister and a number of changes in
the legal date for our departure from the European Union. Brexit dominates the
headlines about my country, and the perceptions of some.
But I know this is not the overwhelming feeling of most Lebanese. Many recall
our world-leading Education (4 of the top 15 universities in the world). Or our
strong economy, with record low unemployment and high skills base. Our
cutting-edge financial, legal, arbitration, and technology services (with a
perfectly-timed Forum in London this week. Some of the most exhilarating,
diverse, cities in the world. A stunning culture and sport offering. And so on.
It is easy to stay positive about the UK's future.
The Future
As it is with Lebanon. I have lived in 6 countries outside the UK, and the
Lebanese are the most creative, entrepreneurial and agile. You look all around
the compass, and have what you need for success. Times are tougher now, but
education, languages, technology, and openness to the world are the keys to the
future. Lebanon has all. And, as I felt when we said goodbye last week to the
latest group of UK Government Chevening scholars, through much of your history,
your people have led the way.
Building a successful future is at the heart of the UK/Lebanon Year of Education
that is almost upon us. Through that, our economic, security and service
programmes, my team and I plan to spend more time around the country in the
coming year, whether in Nabatieh, Saida, Tripoli, Baalbek, Zahle, Byblos, the
Chouf or elsewhere. Everywhere we go, we will see how the UK can invest today,
for a better tomorrow.
So, despite the current challenges this wonderful country faces, I remain
positive. I hope you can too."
Berri: Sanctions against Lebanon affect all Lebanese
NNA - Wed 18 Sep 2019
House Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday stressed that the blockade and economic
sanctions imposed on Lebanon do not affect individuals or a specific party, but
rather affect all the Lebanese.
Speaker Berri's words came during his weekly meeting with deputies within the
framework of "Wednesday Gathering." Berri considered that filling vacancies and
accomplishing appointments in the judiciary and the Auditing Department should
facilitate the approval of the "closure of accounts", to be transferred to
Parliament, before budget approval. On the electricity dossier, the head of the
Legislative authority stressed the need to accelerate the appointment of the
board of directors of the EDL and the regulatory authority of the sector. This
afternoon, Berri chaired a meeting of the Parliament's Bureau, to discuss the
bills of motion on the agenda of the Parliament's General Assembly on 24
September.
Hariri announces suspension of work at Future TV: Difficult decision due to
financial reasons
NNA - Wed 18 Sep 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri issued the following
statement:
"It is with a sad heart that I announce today the decision to suspend the work
at Future TV and settle the rights of the workers, for the same financial
reasons that led to the closing of Al-Mustaqbal newspaper. The decision is not
easy for me and for the public of the Future movement, nor for the generation of
founders, workers and millions of Lebanese and Arab viewers, who accompanied the
station for more than a quarter of a century and witnessed a distinguished media
experience that devoted effort, potential and competencies to serve Lebanon and
the Arab causes. Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri wanted the Future TV to be
at the image of the Lebanese citizens, their diversity, their coexistence and
their passion for culture, freedom, openness and joy. He called it "Future TV"
so it could be a bridge to the Arab conscience, with all its national,
civilized, social and cultural meanings. Future TV could not have witnessed
these continuous chapters of success, development and proliferation, and
overcome the series of security and political dangers and financial and
administrative difficulties, if there had not been a real family that provided
the factors of resilience in the most difficult circumstances, and was the
example of goodness, good performance, sacrifice and noble loyalty. These will
preciously remain entrusted in my heart and I ask God Almighty to help me
fulfill the obligations, despite the difficult conditions that you all know. It
is important that Future TV employees and all Lebanese and Arab brothers know
that the screen will not be turned off. The station is not taking the decision
to stop work in order to become part of the past. Rather, it is announcing the
end of a period in its journey, to be able to address the accumulated material
burdens. It is preparing for a new phase in which it aspires to return in the
coming months, in a way that shines on Lebanon and the Arabs, with a media and
news format that matches the available resources and reflects the national,
economic, social and developmental concerns of the Lebanese. I express my
appreciation, gratitude and apologies to all the employees of Future TV and
their colleagues in Al-Mustaqbal Newspaper, who spent their lives in these
institutions before the circumstances put us together in the face of the
difficult decision to suspend the work. I pledge to follow up their rights and
wish them all the best in their choices and job opportunities."
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on September 18-19/2019
Netanyahu, Gantz Deadlocked after Israeli Polls
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 18/2019
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger Benny Gantz were
deadlocked Wednesday after an Israeli general election, reports said, raising
the possibility of a unity government or even the end of the premier's long
rule. Various Israeli media reported that Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and
Gantz's Blue and White had 32 seats each of parliament's 120 with more than 90
percent of the vote counted. The reports were citing sources with the elections
committee, as that level of results had not been officially posted yet and were
not expected before Wednesday afternoon. The results gave no obvious path for
either to form a majority coalition, raising the possibility of negotiations
towards a unity government. If the results hold, it will be a major setback for
Netanyahu, who hoped to form a right-wing coalition similar to his current one
as he faces the possibility of corruption charges in the weeks ahead. With a
hoarse voice and appearing haggard after days of intense campaigning, Netanyahu
spoke before supporters in the early hours of Wednesday and said he was prepared
for negotiations to form a "strong Zionist government." He seemed to hint at
openness to forming a national unity government, but did not specifically say
so. In his speech to supporters in Tel Aviv, Gantz called for a "broad unity
government" but cautioned that he was waiting for final results. "We will act to
form a broad unity government that will express the will of the people," the
former armed forces chief said. "We will begin negotiations and I will speak
with everyone." On Wednesday morning when journalists approached him as he was
on his way for a run, Gantz said "we'll wait for the final results ... and wish
Israel a good unity government." Netanyahu had not spoken in public since his
early morning speech.
Arab turnout
Ex-defence minister Avigdor Lieberman could prove to be kingmaker, with the
reported results showing his nationalist Yisrael Beitenu with nine seats. The
mainly Arab Joint List alliance was set to become the third-largest bloc in
parliament with 12 seats, the reports said. That could put the Arab parties in a
position to block Netanyahu from continuing as prime minister if they decide to
break with precedent and endorse Gantz for the job. Israel's Arab parties have
traditionally not endorsed anyone for prime minister. "The main difference in
this vote is the turnout among Arab citizens," Joint List leader Ayman Odeh told
journalists outside his home in the northern city of Haifa on Wednesday.
"There's no doubt that this is what made the difference. Without that, Netanyahu
would already be prime minister." After exit polls were released on Tuesday
night, Lieberman called for a unity government with his party, Likud and Blue
and White, saying the country was facing an "emergency." The election was the
second in five months for Israel, and President Reuven Rivlin, who must choose
someone to form the next government, said there was a "need to avoid a third".
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, suffered one of the biggest
defeats of his political career after the previous elections in April. His Likud
along with its right-wing and religious allies won a majority, but he failed to
form a coalition and opted for a second election rather than risk having Rivlin
choose someone else to try.
'Normal again'
The stakes could not be much higher for the 69-year-old Netanyahu, who many
believe will seek immunity from prosecution in parliament should be survive as
prime minister. He spent election day warning he was on the verge of losing if
his supporters did not turn out to vote, including in appearances at Jerusalem's
main market and its central bus station, wielding a megaphone to exhort the
crowds. He repeatedly warned, as he has in previous elections, that left-wing
and Arab voters were showing up in large numbers to vote him out, appearing on
Facebook live to do so. A campaign by Lieberman to "make Israel normal again"
appeared to have resonated with voters. The staunch secularist has long
campaigned against what he sees as the undue clout of ultra-Orthodox Jewish
parties, which he accuses of seeking to impose Jewish religious law on Israel's
secular population. Lieberman has demanded legislation to make military service
mandatory for the ultra-Orthodox as for other Jewish Israelis -- a demand he
refused to drop after April polls, eventually blocking Netanyahu's efforts to
form a coalition.
Reports: Netanyahu Wanted War in Gaza but Israeli Military
Refused
Tel Aviv /Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
In new information released in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, political and military
sources confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was seriously
working this month on forcing the military to go to war in the Gaza Strip, which
would have postponed the general elections. Hebrew newspapers wrote that the PM
sent National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat to meet with Central Elections
Committee head Hana Melcer to prepare for the possibility of delaying the
general election due to war. Netanyahu said he needed to respond to a rocket
attack that appeared to target one of his rallies. Last week, two rockets were
fired toward the coastal city of Ashdod, situated between the Palestinian
enclave and Tel Aviv, and nearby Ashkelon, while the prime minister was speaking
to voters at the time, and was therefore forced to leave the stage for a bomb
shelter. Netanyahu then discussed the issue with top military commanders at the
Defense Ministry, where he raised the possibility of a “far-reaching” military
operation. The reports said that the PM was almost about to order the military
to go to war in the Gaza Strip. However, Israeli Attorney General Avichai
Mendelblit persuaded the PM to back off, citing a 2018 law that prohibits the
prime minister and defense minister from declaring war or authorizing
significant military operations without cabinet approval. The KAN Israeli public
broadcaster reported that Israel was closer to a wide-range military operation
against the Gaza Strip more than anytime before. It quoted Israeli security
officials as saying that the rocket fired toward Ashdod does not require an
Israeli response in the size suggested by Netanyahu.
Soleimani in Baghdad confers with Shiite proxies on strikes
against US forces in Iraq, also Israel
DEBKAfile/September 18/2019
Exclusive: Al Qods chief Qassem Soleimani arrived in Baghdad on Monday, Sept.
16, two days after Iran’s cruise-missile drone attack on Saudi oil, DEBKAfile’s
military and intelligence sources report. Accompanied by his operational staff,
the IRGC general was quickly closeted with three heads of pro-Iranian Iraqi
Shiite militias and former Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki. Our sources
reveal their two subjects of discussion:
The Iraqi militias’ response in the event of a US and/or Saudi assault on Iran
in retaliation for its attacks on major Saudi oil facilities on Saturday.
The military action the Iraqi militias would take against Israel as payback for
its constant air and missile strikes against Iran’s bases in Syria and Iraq.
Our sources name the militia leaders in talks with Soleimani as Hadi al-Amiri,
former chief of the Badr Brigades, Falah al-Fayyad, supreme commander of the
Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and his deputy Abu Mahdi Muhandis. Al Maliki, a
highly influential figure in Iraq’s Shiite south, warned Israel in late August
that of “a strong response” if it continued to attack Iranian targets.
Soleimani’s consultations in Baghdad continue at present. They run parallel to
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s talks in Jeddah with Saudi royal leaders on
how to respond to the crippling attacks on their oil infrastructure.
Pompeo meets with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for
talks on Aramco attacks
Arab News/September 18, 2019
JEDDAH: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Wednesday described strikes on key
Saudi oil installations as an “act of war” as he landed in Jeddah to meet with
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Pompeo described the drone and
cruise missile strikes on Saturday as an “Iranian attack”. He said it had not
come from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants and that there was no evidence
the attacks had been launched from Iraq. "This is an attack of a scale we've
just not seen before," he added. Pompeo was met at Jeddah airport by Saudi
Foreign Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf. Pompeo's visit comes as President Donald
Trump said on Wednesday there were many options short of war with Iran after
Saudi Arabia's display of remnants of drones and missiles it said were used in
the I that was "unquestionably sponsored" by Tehran. "There are many options.
There's the ultimate option and there are options that are a lot less than that.
And we'll see," Trump told reporters in Los Angeles. "I'm saying the ultimate
option meaning go in — war." Trump, who earlier said on Twitter that he had
ordered the US Treasury to "substantially increase" sanctions on Iran, told
reporters the unspecified, punitive economic measures would be unveiled within
48 hours. Trump's tweet followed repeated US assertions that the Islamic
Republic was behind Saturday's attack on Aramco facilities and came hours after
Saudi Arabia said the strike was a "test of global will." Earlier on Wednesday,
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he had spoken with US President Donald
Trump about the Aramco attack, and agreed that Iran must not be allowed to
acquire a nuclear weapon. Also on Wednesday, Kuwait's army released a statement
announcing it was raising its preparedness level for some units, given the
tensions in the Middle East region.
Saudi to Unveil 'Evidence' Linking Iran to Attacks as US
Weighs Response
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 18/2019
Saudi Arabia said it will unveil evidence on Wednesday linking regional foe Iran
to attacks on key oil installations, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo heads
to the kingdom to discuss possible retaliation. Riyadh, which is bogged down in
a five-year war against Tehran-aligned rebels in neighbouring Yemen, has said
that the weapons used in the strikes were Iranian-made, but has so far not
directly blamed its arch rival. However, the Saudi defence ministry said its
spokesman would present evidence from the site of the weekend attacks that
halved Saudi oil production, sending global energy markets into a tailspin.
He "will announce the final results of the investigation and present material
evidence and Iranian weapons proving the Iranian regime's involvement in the
terrorist attack," the ministry said. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de
facto ruler, on Wednesday said the attack on the heart of the kingdom's oil
industry was a "real test" of global will, while urging the international
community to take a "firm stance", state media reported. Late Tuesday, Energy
Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said international investigators, including
from the UN, were joining the probe, having announced that output would return
to normal by the end of the month. The kingdom wants "proof based on
professionalism and internationally recognised standards," he said.
The Saudis will present the evidence ahead of Pompeo's arrival.
The US chief diplomat is set to meet with Prince Mohammed to discuss how to
respond to the strikes, which the US says originated in Iran. "As the president
said, we don't want war with anybody, but the United States is prepared," Vice
President Mike Pence said in a speech in Washington on Tuesday. A US official,
speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that the administration has
concluded that the attack involved cruise missiles from Iran and that evidence
would be presented at the UN General Assembly next week.
Prefer not to meet
The apparent hardening of the US position came as Iran's supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out negotiations with Washington "at any level".
This appeared to nix remaining hopes for a dramatic meeting between President
Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani at the United Nations
next week. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One over California, Trump said he
too had cooled on what had always seemed to be a diplomatic longshot.
"I never rule anything out, but I prefer not meeting him," Trump said.
Yemen's Huthi rebels claimed responsibility for Saturday's oil installation
attacks, which took out six percent of global supplies. But a senior US
administration official cast doubt on that claim, saying that while the Huthis
said they used 10 drones, one Saudi oil facility was hit "at least 17 times,"
and another twice by "precision-guided munitions." Additionally, neither the
type of drone "nor the cruise missiles employed in the attack can reach the
facilities from Yemen. It's not possible," the official said. Observers say the
torrid experience in Yemen, where despite their vast firepower, the Saudis have
failed to subdue the ragtag but highly motivated militia, has made Riyadh
circumspect about wading into another conflict. "I certainly hope we're not
(going to have another war)," Riyadh's ambassador to London Prince Khalid bin
Bandar told the BBC in an interview. "Almost certainly it's Iranian-backed, but
we are trying not to react too quickly because the last thing we need is more
conflict in the region," he said. Iran has stuck with its account that the Huthi
rebels are responsible, with Rouhani saying Wednesday that they carried out the
strike as a "warning" about a possible wider war in response to the Saudi-led
intervention in Yemen.
State media said Tehran had written to Washington through the Swiss embassy on
Monday denying any role in attacks on Saudi oil installations and warning it
would respond to any action.The message "emphasised that if any actions are
taken against Iran, that action will face an immediate response from Iran and
its scope will not be limited to just a threat," the official IRNA news agency
said.
Support for war?
The increasingly complex conflict dovetails with the Trump administration's
attempt to curb Iranian power through a "maximum pressure" campaign of crippling
economic sanctions. Trump began that campaign after unilaterally pulling out of
a 2015 international deal meant to reward Iran for allowing restrictions on its
nuclear industry. The new stage of the long-running US-Iranian standoff has
raised speculation over whether it will lead to conflict. Trump called off a
retaliatory missile attack on Iran in June after the Iranians shot down a spy
drone. He said he did not want to kill what generals told him could be up to 150
people. Trump's administration is considering responses to the latest attack,
including a cyber attack or a physical strike on Iranian oil infrastructure or
its Revolutionary Guards, NBC News reported, citing unnamed US officials. Oil
prices have see-sawed since the attacks, with record gains Monday followed by a
tumble Tuesday as the Saudi assurances on supply soothed the markets.
Source: 'High Probability' Saudi Attack Launched from Iran Base
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Saudi Arabia and the US have determined "with very high probability" that the
attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities was launched from an Iranian base in Iran
close to the border with Iraq, a source familiar with the investigation told
CNN.
The missiles, according to the investigators' current assessment, flew over
southern Iraq and through Kuwaiti airspace before reaching their targets. The
Saudi Defense Ministry said it will hold a news conference on Wednesday to
present "material evidence and Iranian weapons proving the Iranian regime's
involvement in the terrorist attack.”But Iran's Defense minister Brigadier
General Amir Hatami said Tehran had no involvement in the attacks, Tasnim news
agency reported. Yemen's Houthi militias, who are backed by Iran, have claimed
responsibility for the attacks. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the
Houthis attacked the Saudi oil facilities as a "warning.”He said the US
accusations that Iran was behind the attacks were aimed at increasing pressure
on Tehran. "While exerting psychological and economic pressure on the Iranian
people (through sanctions), they want to impose maximum ... pressure on Iran
through slander," Rouhani said according to state broadcaster IRIB. "Meanwhile,
no one believes these accusations."
US Hopes for UN Action over Aramco Attacks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Washington hopes that the UN Security Council would respond to the attacks on
Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities, a senior US official said Tuesday. The official
said that Saudi Arabia, as the target of the weekend blasts, needed to take the
lead in seeking action by the Security Council but that the United States first
needed to prepare information for release. "We do see a role for the UN Security
Council to play," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity. "Saudi
Arabia has been attacked, which has global consequences. The UN Security Council
was created to address threats to international peace and security, and this
attack meets that criteria," he said. He did not specify what action he would
seek at the Security Council, where Russia and China wield veto power and have
been critical of President Donald Trump's unilateral sanctions against Iran.
European powers have also distanced themselves from Trump's hawkish line on Iran
and sought to preserve the 2015 deal on Tehran's nuclear program, from which he
withdrew. US officials say that the attacks that hit Abqaiq, one of the world's
largest oil facilities, and the Khurais oil field, originated in southwestern
Iran. The Houthi militias in Yemen have claimed responsibility.
Saudi Crown Prince: Attack on Aramco Facilities Dangerous Escalation Against
Int’l Community
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Defense, has received a phone call from British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson, the Saudi Press Agency reported. The British PM expressed his
condemnation of the sabotage attack on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and
Khurais and the UK’s full solidarity with the Kingdom, SPA said. He praised the
wisdom of the Saudi leadership in dealing with these attacks and demanding a
firm international stand towards such criminal acts that should not go
unpunished, it said. The Crown Prince explained that this sabotage attack is a
dangerous escalation not only against the Kingdom but the entire world. Also
Tuesday, the Crown Prince received a phone call from French President Emmanuel
Macron, who condemned the attacks and expressed France’s support to the security
and stability of the Kingdom, SPA said.
Macron said his country was willing to be part of a team of international
experts to investigate the source of the attacks. The Crown Prince told the
French president that the sabotage attacks were aimed at creating instability in
the region and harm the global economy. On Wednesday, the Crown Prince received
a phone call from South Korean President Moon Jae-in. During the conversation,
the President condemned the attacks on the oil facilities, calling on the
international community to take a firm stance from such sabotage attacks. For
his part, the Crown Prince said the attacks are a test to international
determination in confronting sabotage acts that threaten international security
and stability.
153,000 Syrians Exited Jordan within a Year
Amman, London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September, 2019
Some 153,000 Syrians, including 33,000 who are registered as refugees with the
UNHCR, have left Jordan to Syria since the Jaber-Nasib border crossing was
reopened in mid-October of last year, the Jordanian Interior Ministry said.
In a statement from the ministry’s Syrian Refugees Affairs Directorate, the
ministry reaffirmed the Kingdom's commitment to the principle of voluntary
return of Syrian refugees and taking the necessary measures to facilitate their
departure should they choose it. The statement also underscored Jordan's
commitment to adhering to the related international treaties and conventions in
dealing with Syrian refugees, as well as continuing with the provision of basic
services and needs, referring to past humanitarian and operational decisions to
organize their entry and residence in the Kingdom. A recent UNHCR survey showed
that 75.2% of Syrian refugees in regional countries expressed their wish of
voluntary repatriation. Jordan and its northern neighbor reopened the
Jaber-Nasib border crossing on October 15, 2018, after passenger and cargo
traffic was halted for more than three years as a result of the escalating
violence in the Syrian town of Nasib, just across the border station, some 80 km
north of Amman.
Turkey, Iran, Russia Discussed Four Issues at Summit
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 September,
2019
During the fifth round of the Russia-Turkey-Iran summit on Syria, Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought after gaining support for establishing a
“safe zone” in north Syria to ensure that Kurdish separatists and terrorists are
contained and that Syrian refugees can return. Turkey had agreed, along with the
United States, to set up a corridor along the border with the northeastern area
under the sway of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ankara
considers the SDF a "terrorist" group with ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK). Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeded in getting Erdogan
to lower the political benchmark on creating a new Syria constitutional
committee. As for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, he looked for the sixth
round of the summit to be held in Iran. The leaders tackled four main issues at
the summit: forming a new constitutional committee, Idlib and de-escalation
zones, northeastern Syria and creating a 910-km long and 30-km deep safe zone.
The constitutional committee: The final list of members of the new committee,
tasked with carrying out constitutional reforms and the implementation of UN
Security Council Resolution 2254, was approved after Ankara withdrew its
objection to Daham Jarba, who Damascus had nominated among four of the six
disputed candidates. Therefore, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran achieved
a single breakthrough by approving Jarba and agreeing on the total 150 names.
Idlib and the de-esclation zone: A verbal understanding was achieved on
postponing a full-scale offensive by Syrian regime forces on Idlib, Tehran
keeping its militias stationed west of Aleppo away from the offensive, and
Russian ground forces stationed north of Hama stopping their military
advancements, all of which means a temporary extension of the ceasefire. Russia,
for its part, insisted on rapidly mobilizing to fight off terrorists in Idlib.
After holding collective and bilateral consultations, Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani
agreed on the importance of maintaining battlefield calm by fully implementing
deals related to Idlib, especially the Sochi agreement reached on September 17,
2018. Northeast Syria: The three leaders, their discussions, and the final
summit statement focused on the situation east of the Euphrates. This comes a
few days after Washington and Ankara launched implementation of joint military
arrangements, namely patrols, in the region. Turkey had wanted to establish a
safe zone with an infrastructure that would allow for the return of refugees,
the establishment of local council areas and the withdrawal of heavy weapons for
the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) backed by the Washington-led
international coalition. But instead, the US offered a joint security mechanism.
Suicide Bomber Detonates Inside Govt Building in East Afghanistan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 18/2019
A suicide bomber has detonated inside a government building in eastern
Afghanistan, a provincial official said Wednesday, with casualties feared in the
latest violence to hit the war-torn country. "Security forces are in the area to
rescue the staff" at the electronic identification registration centre in
Jalalabad, capital of Nangarhar province, said provincial spokesman Ataullah
Khogyani.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on September 18-19/2019
Opinion/Trump Clearly Wants Rapprochement With Iran. Israel Can’t Let That
Happen
يوسي مانشاروف وجيسون برودسكي/هآرتس: من الواضح أن ترامب يريد التقارب مع إيران
ولكن إسرائيل لن تدع ذلك يحدث
Yossi Mansharof and Jason M. Brodsky/Haaretz/September 18/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78601/%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%81-%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%af%d8%b3%d9%83%d9%8a-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%85%d9%86/
Despite Iran’s role in the Saudi attack, there’s still speculation that
presidents Trump and Rohani may meet. Even a tentative rapprochement would
severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House
As the opening of the United Nations General Assembly approaches this week,
there's speculation about a grand summit featuring the presidents of Iran and
the United States.
The logic is there’s an alignment in the policy clocks in Washington and Tehran:
President Donald Trump wants a diplomatic achievement ahead of a reelection in
2020, and the Iranian leadership is anxious to resuscitate its cratering
economy.
But deadlock won’t transform into détente so easily. Four inconvenient realities
will loom large in the negotiating room, namely presidential disproportion;
nuclear distrust; increased regional discord; and stakeholder dissent.
And Israel, prime target of both Iran’s nuclear program and its
precision-missile equipped proxy, Hezbollah, may have to risk its close
relations with the Trump White House to obstruct any rapprochement.
First, it would be a dramatic tête-à-tête between Donald Trump and Hassan Rohani,
featuring two fundamentally different actors.
Trump came to power as the ultimate political outsider, from the world of real
estate and reality television. But Rohani ascended to the presidency as the
ultimate political insider, a member of parliament turned secretary of Iran’s
Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator.
There’s an asymmetry in power as well. Where Trump is constitutionally empowered
to close a deal as the commander-in-chief, Rohani is constitutionally
disempowered, being subordinate to the Supreme Leader who wields a powerful
veto.
Stylistic differences will also predominate. Trump is brash, pushing the
envelope on assertions of executive authority in Washington. Rohani is
deferential in Tehran, with parliamentarians recently accusing him of being too
meek in the face of attempts by the Supreme Leader to encroach on his office.
Second, further complicating this leadership incongruity will be heightened
mutual suspicion. A meeting would come amid the disclosure that the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reportedly found traces of uranium,
the fuel for nuclear weapons, at an undisclosed atomic warehouse in Turquzabad,
for which Iran hasn’t provided answers.
While there hasn’t been a conclusive determination as to the provenance of the
uranium, such a finding only underscores IAEA’s premature closure of possible
military dimensions (PMD) file on Iran’s nuclear program and the deep distrust
that exists over this issue.
That’s not to mention the disclosure by Israel’s prime minister that Iran had
allegedly been conducting experiments for nuclear weapons at a secret site near
the city of Abadeh. He indicated that Iran had destroyed the area only after it
learned Israel had discovered its existence. Back in 2012, news reports
indicated that Iran was constructing a new $300 million anti-aircraft missile
base near Abadeh. This may have been a hint of questionable activity in the
area.
There’s also a deep wariness of the United States in Tehran - especially after
Washington withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and the U.S. maximum pressure
campaign, which Iran’s leadership claims is aimed at regime change. Such a
circular firing squad of recriminations will only toxify an already toxic
atmosphere.
Third, regional discord is increasing as a result of the increased coordination
among Iran’s proxies. Iran’s Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi held
important meetings in recent months to bolster this unified front across
multiple theaters - for example, meeting with a delegation of Palestinian
factions in Damascus in April and with a Hamas delegation in Beirut in June.
After the April meeting, the groups stressed "the interlinked role of all axis
of resistance forces and countries in the region to fight threats and schemes
targeting Iran, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon."
The Houthis are a part of this nexus. Speaking with the Iranian media around the
time of attack, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh publicly and
unprecedentedly admitted Tehran assists the Houthis, declaring that "[w]e
definitely assist the Palestinians, we definitely assist the Lebanese, we
definitely assist Yemenis… we defend the oppressed and they have now become a
coalition."
Just a few hours after the September 14 attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iran’s al-Alaam
TV network described the Houthis as a "fundamental component of the Iran-led
Resistance Axis," adding that "the coordination between the components of this
axis is being held at the highest operational levels."
Iran’s supreme leader himself reinforced the Houthis’ importance in Iranian
strategy by welcoming a high-level Houthi delegation in Tehran, the first such
public meeting. At the gathering, the Houthis actually pledged allegiance to
Khamenei.
We’ve seen this integrated network in action recently. After the Houthis in
Yemen first claimed credit for a drone attack in May against Saudi Arabia’s oil
infrastructure, U.S. officials later concluded that the drone originated from
southern Iraq, not Yemen. In other words, the Houthis were potentially covering
for Iranian-backed militants based in Iraq.
We’re seeing a similar pattern after the September 14 onslaught against Saudi
Aramco, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggesting the strikes didn’t
originate in Yemen and U.S. government satellite imagery showing the attacks
perhaps came from Iranian territory, only after the Houthis proudly took
responsibility.
Fourth, the Netanyahu government has publicly been wary of a meeting between
Presidents Trump and Rohani because the French credit line initiative risks
boosting Hezbollah’s financial balance sheet, which was damaged following the
U.S. sanctions. Its secretary-general has publicly acknowledged that the maximum
pressure campaign has strained Hezbollah’s finances.
Israel has exposed the precision missile project of Hezbollah and Quds Force for
this very reason, in order to pressure the international community to hold
Hezbollah accountable for the threat to Israel.
This situation has become so dire for Israel that according to Haaretz, it has
reportedly re-ranked the security threats it faces to allocate resources more
efficiently.
For years, the Iranian nuclear program was first, followed by Iran’s regional
entrenchment, with Hezbollah third on the most pressing threats list. But five
months ago, this equation changed, and Hezbollah’s precision missile project
graduated to the second-most critical priority.
A French credit line would risk funding the very activity Israel is trying to
prevent - potentially forcing the Israelis to strike Hezbollah and thwarting any
possibility for a potential U.S.-Iranian rapprochement in the near future.
Indeed, the attack on the Aramco oil facilities also serves Israeli interests,
since it fits into Israel’s narrative of the need to more forcefully pushback
against Iranian provocations.
While such a dynamic could strain Israel’s relationship with the White House, as
President Trump seeks a diplomatic achievement, a strong U.S.-Israeli alliance
remains a core domestic political priority for his administration. In the end,
this is a moment of testing for the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, with Israeli
interests remaining a wild card.
The prospect of Trump meeting with Rohani is already looking dim due to the
extremely high price the Supreme Leader set for it: halting U.S. sanctions.
Additionally, if U.S. assessments are accurate - that the attack was launched
from Iranian territory, Ayatollah Khamenei would have likely had to approve such
an extraordinary escalation, signaling his skepticism of talks.
Thus, deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even
if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. And one step forward can
quickly turn into two steps back if the U.S. government prematurely lifts
sanctions.
*Jason M. Brodsky is the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
Twitter: @JasonMBrodsky
*Dr. Yossi Mansharof is a researcher at The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and
Security and a research associate at the Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf
Studies. Twitter: @Yossi_Mansharof
Next for Turkey? Nuclear Weapons!
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/September 18/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14896/turkey-erdogan-nuclear-weapons
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan now wants to make Turkey a rogue state with
nuclear weapons.
For several decades, Turkey, being a staunch NATO ally, was viewed as the
trusted custodian of some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In the early 1960s, the
U.S. started stockpiling nuclear warheads at the Turkish military's four main
airbases
Presently, the nuclear warheads in Turkey at Incirlik airbase still remain at
the disposal of the U.S. military under a special U.S.-Turkish treaty. That
treaty makes Turkey the host of U.S. nuclear weapons. According to the launch
protocol, however, both Washington and Ankara need to give consent to any use of
the nuclear weapons deployed at Incirlik.
"Countries that oppose Iran's nuclear weapons should not have nuclear weapons
themselves." — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hürriyet, 2008.
If Turkey overtly or covertly launched a nuclear weapons program -- as Erdoğan
apparently wishes -- the move could well have a domino effect on the region.
Turkey's regional adversaries would be alarmed, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria
and Greece might be tempted to launch their own nuclear weapons programs.
Erdoğan should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons.
During the 17 years he has ruled NATO-member Turkey, the country's Islamist
strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has rarely missed an opportunity
stealthily to convert Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's secular, pro-Western establishment
into a rogue state hostile to Western interests. Erdoğan now wants to make it a
rogue state with nuclear weapons.
"They say we can't have nuclear-tipped missiles, though some have them. This, I
can't accept," Erdoğan said in a September 4 speech, while conveniently
forgetting that Turkey has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in
1980. In other words, Turkey's elected leader publicly declares that he intends
to breach an international treaty signed by his country. Turkey is also a
signatory to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which bans all
nuclear detonations, for any purpose.
For several decades, Turkey, being a staunch NATO ally, was viewed as the
trusted custodian of some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In the early 1960s, the
U.S. started stockpiling nuclear warheads at the Turkish military's four main
airbases (Ankara Mürted, Malatya Erhaç, Eskişehir and Balıkesir). If ordered,
Turkish air force pilots were tasked with hitting designated Warsaw Pact
targets.
Squadrons of jets designated for carrying nuclear bombs were kept at each
airbase (first F-100s, followed by F-104s and finally by F-4s) on a
round-the-clock basis. Each base housed a small U.S. military unit in charge of
the nuclear stockpile. In addition, a Turkish-U.S. military base in Incirlik in
southern Turkey kept nuclear warheads to be operated by U.S. military. "With
that role Turkey significantly added to NATO's deterrence in Cold War years,"
said Yusuf Kanlı, a prominent columnist and president of the Ankara-based think
tank, Sigma Turkey, in a private interview on September 9.
After the end of the Cold War, the nuclear weapons in Turkish possession (at the
four airbases, except Incirlik) were gradually removed, while nuclear
guardianship came to a halt. Presently, the nuclear warheads at Incirlik still
remain at the disposal of the U.S. military under a special U.S.-Turkish treaty.
That treaty makes Turkey the host of U.S. nuclear weapons. According to the
usage protocol, however, both Washington and Ankara need to give consent to any
use of the nuclear weapons deployed at Incirlik.
This is not, in fact, the first time Erdoğan has voiced an eagerness to make
Turkey a nuclear-armed state. As early as 2008 -- when he was the poster child
of naïve Western statesmen and intellectuals who believed he was a reformist
democrat -- Erdoğan said: "Countries that oppose Iran's nuclear weapons should
not have nuclear weapons themselves." Despite his use of the plural "countries,"
Erdoğan was apparently pointing his finger at the country he hates the most:
Israel, not the United States.
In a 2010 speech, Erdoğan described Israel as "the principal threat to peace" in
the Middle East. In that speech, he repeated his skepticism about whether Iran
intended to use its nuclear-fuel program to build nuclear weapons, and said
there was no such uncertainty concerning Israel's undeclared arsenal.
If Turkey overtly or covertly launched a nuclear weapons program -- as Erdoğan
apparently wishes -- the move could well have a domino effect on the region.
Turkey's regional adversaries would be alarmed, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria
and Greece might be tempted to launch their own nuclear weapons programs.
Erdoğan should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
"Jack... Is a Really Kind, Funny Kid... Totally
Non-violent."
Andrew Ash/Gatestone Institute/September 18/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14838/jihadi-jack-letts-isis
"He [Jack] is a very humane person and he wanted to do something to help." Mr
Letts said about his son, then adding, "He is a really kind, funny kid who is
very gentle. He is totally non-violent."
As with so much of the mitigating rhetoric that follows the imprisonment of
captured British Muslims, Mr Letts's words sit very much at odds with his son's
previous murderous statements. How mystifying then, that such a peacenik should
end up in the bloody killing-fields of Raqqa.
A far bigger problem than what to do with the likes of Jack Letts and Shamima
Begum is the possibility of missing British ISIS fighters returning and making
their presence felt.
No matter how heartfelt a plea their parents might make on their behalf after
they are captured, their children's real inclinations might best be measured by
their actions while they were free to do as they wished.
"This power [to remove citizenship] is one way we can counter the terrorist
threat posed by some of the most dangerous individuals and keep our country
safe." — UK Home Office spokesperson, August 2019.
Jack Letts, dubbed "Jihadi Jack", the British convert to Islam who travelled to
Syria in 2014 to join ISIS, has been stripped of his British citizenship. The
former dual-national, whose British mother and Canadian father stand by their
son, exchanged his picturesque hometown of Oxford for Raqqa, to join the ranks
of ISIS. He is currently awaiting his fate in the custody of Kurdish forces.
Letts, who had previously claimed to be an "enemy of Britain" and had posted on
social media messages, such as "his threat to behead a group of young British
soldiers on Facebook", now says that he regrets his past misdeeds, and the pain
he has caused his parents. "I feel guilty, because I am the reason (my parents)
are going through this." He told a Sky News reporter in June, evidently
oblivious to the fact that his actions caused a lot more harm than merely
upsetting his parents -- both of whom received a suspended prison sentence for
-- "making money available for a terrorist purpose".
Separately, Shamima Begum, one of three British schoolgirls who hatched and
executed a plan to escape their family homes in East London and head for Syria
in 2015, suffered a similar fate in February. Begum, after also having had her
citizenship revoked, now languishes in a Syrian refugee camp.
A refugee camp might not have been the outcome Begum or her family desired, but
is no doubt preferable to the fate of her school friends and accomplices, Kadiza
Sultana, and Amira Abase, both of whom are now dead. Abase was reportedly killed
during a Russian airstrike; Sultana, while trying to flee ISIS in an
unsuccessful attempt to escape, having apparently had a change of heart.
Both Letts and the three girls cited the suffering of their fellow Muslims at
the hands of Syrian President Bashar Assad as the catalyst behind their
life-changing decisions to de-camp to the Middle East.
As is the situation with so many British Muslim converts, interfering in other
nations' affairs for the sake of the Ummah (worldwide Muslim community), seems
an irresistible motive, however badly thought out.
Equally predictable is the repentant U-turn and familial words of defence --
after being captured.
"He [Jack] is a very humane person and he wanted to do something to help." Mr
Letts said about his son, then adding, "He is a really kind, funny kid who is
very gentle. He is totally non-violent..."
As with so much of the mitigating rhetoric that follows the imprisonment of
captured British Muslims, Mr Letts's words sit very much at odds with his son's
previous murderous statements. How mystifying then, that such a peacenik should
end up in the bloody killing-fields of Raqqa.
A far bigger problem than what to do with the likes of Jack Letts and Shamima
Begum is the possibility of missing British ISIS fighters returning and making
their presence felt. No matter how heartfelt a plea their parents might make on
their behalf after they are captured, their children's real inclinations might
best be measured by their actions while they were free to do as they wished.
*Andrew Ash is based in the United Kingdom
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Reconstruction may be underway but Syria remains unstable
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/September 18, 2019
Syria’s fifth Reconstruction Exhibition kicked off in Damascus this week.
Although fighting continues in some areas, primarily in Idlib, many Syrians and
international observers are turning their eyes toward the future and
reconstruction has started. This period of transition from years of intense
civil war to whatever is next raises a key question: Are any of the root causes
of Syria’s civil war being addressed?
A complex mix of political, social, economic and environmental drivers led to
the civil war. Politically, Syrians had experienced decades of a repressive,
unrepresentative regime. Syria had a very large youth population, but its regime
was unwilling to adapt in ways that might have allowed the country’s youth space
to express itself and find creative ways of contributing to the country. Those
young Syrians then watched as their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt rose in
protest and forced long-ruling leaders from power. When young Syrians began
their own peaceful protests, they were met with harshly violent responses from
their regime, which soon tipped the country into civil war.
Social drivers included the demographics of a young population as well as the
country’s long-simmering sectarian and ethnic tensions. These tensions often
existed beneath the surface, as Alawites, Christians, Sunnis and other groups
lived and worked together. Yet the tensions were there and a situation in which
a minority group rules over a majority is seldom tenable without the use of
regular violence.
Economic elements were also important. Unemployment, especially among the youth,
was a widespread problem. The Syrian economy was suffering. Inequality sharpened
potential fault lines in society, while corruption stymied economic growth and
eroded trust in the government and elites.
Environmental problems contributed to an increasingly unstable environment. From
2007 to 2010, Syria experienced the area’s worst drought on record. According to
several studies, climate change made the drought much more severe and
longer-lasting. The drought led to extensive internal migration — a 2017
Atlantic Council report said that more than 1.5 million people in Syria “moved
from rural or urban areas” during the drought, contributing to a significant
drop in Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The influx to cities
increased pressure on urban areas and likely contributed to the protests that
began in 2011. Once the war began, other drivers came into play and further
fueled violence. Extremist groups found a new battlefield, with both foreign and
Syrian fighters joining groups such as Jabhat Al-Nusra and Daesh. Outside powers
pursuing their own interests intervened on various sides. As in any war, a war
economy developed with actors who had a financial interest in the continuation
of fighting.
As the dust clears, with the Assad regime still in charge of most of a badly
damaged, impoverished country, it is an important time to ask whether anything
is being done to address the causes of the war and ensure a long-term peace.
In terms of Syrian political drivers, the situation has worsened dramatically.
The Assad regime has killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians, and even used
chemical weapons against its own people. Frightening a population into
submission sometimes works in the short term but risks constant instability,
especially for a minority group ruler. Any hope of rebuilding trust between most
Syrians and the Assad government is now impossible. In a post-Arab spring
regional environment, Syrians may find less regional encouragement to oppose
their government, and the war has graphically demonstrated the risks of
opposition. Nonetheless, the political root causes of instability in Syria are
worse now than they were in 2011.
Similarly, the war has vastly worsened the social root causes. Sectarian
tensions that posed a risk in 2011 have deepened into a divide soaked in blood.
Reconciliation between social groups that have engaged in horrific violence
against each other is extremely difficult — and likely impossible without a
leadership that genuinely wants to promote healing. Meanwhile, the Kurds have
had a taste of self-government and are unlikely to easily accept a return to
living under the Assad regime, though geopolitical realities will pressure them.
The war has largely destroyed the economy. Overall poverty rates were above 90
percent in late 2017, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research. The
World Bank reportsthat, “from 2011 to 2016, cumulative GDP loss is estimated at
$226 billion.” Furthermore, multiple reports demonstrate that the Assad regime
is using reconstruction to reward its domestic and foreign allies and punish the
communities that it sees as disloyal. “By hardening social inequalities and
collectively punishing a largely poor segment of the country’s population he has
accused of treason, Assad may be sowing the seeds for future conflict,” Joseph
Daher warned in a recent Carnegie Middle East Center article.
Any hope of rebuilding trust between most Syrians and the Assad government is
now impossible.
While it may not be possible to forecast whether Syria will soon face another
extreme drought, climate change will only increase environmental risks, while
the war’s destruction of infrastructure diminishes the population’s resilience
to environmental shifts.
If a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions is nearly
at its end, it can be difficult to look ahead and suggest that more war might
lie in wait in the future. Unfortunately, the root causes of the Syrian civil
war are not only unaddressed, many of them have worsened. The war may end — for
now — but Syria will likely remain a source of instability and potentially
renewed warfare.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14
years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and
Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch
Netanyahu's era is over, Israel is on a new path
سيما كادمون/يديعوت أحرونوت : انتهاء حقبة نيتنياهو وإسرائيل في مسار جديد
Sima Kadmon|/Ynetnews/September 18/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78614/%d8%b3%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a7-%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%85%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a3%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%ad%d9%82%d8%a8/
Opinion: The prime minister has lost his allies and his touch, and the future
identity of the state now rests on kingmaker Avigdor Liberman, Benny Gantz's
determination, and the Likud's willingness to boot its long-term leader from its
midst
Benjamin Netanyahu is in a tight spot, and it will be a few more days until we
can determine the exact make up of the next Knesset.
But until then, we can safely say that in the decade of Netanyahu's rule, his
situation has never been worse than it was on Tuesday. And it's not because the
magic suddenly dissipated.
Netanyahu failed in the April vote as well. He couldn't form a coalition then
and so he dragged the people of Israel back into another round of elections.
Despite Israelis' long experience with sudden political upheaval, one can safely
say that the latest elections were a heavy blow not just for Netanyahu, but for
the whole of the Likud and the entire right-wing.
According to the results still being counted, it's hard to see how Netanyahu can
escape a situation where Blue and White outstrips the Likud.
The right-wing is smaller than the central-left, and Netanyahu needs a miracle
to be able to form a government. These days, Netanyahu is not a man of miracles,
not anymore.
The choices Netanyahu has made lately, including in the week before the
elections, are the choices of a frightened and weak man, who's willing to do
anything - including going to war against the advice of the entire Israeli
security forces - to keep his seat and not face the wrath of the justice system.
The election results are proof that the people are fed up with Netanyahu.
Benny Gantz may not be viewed as the ultimate leader, but he is viewed as a
viable alternative to Netanyahu, and an alternative is what Israel wants.
That’s why Netanyahu cannot consolidate an obstructive bloc, failed to shove
Lieberman under the election threshold, and miscalculated the might of Otzma
Yehudit (Jewish Power).
All of these are grave failures for a man with the abilities Netanyahu once
possessed.
If there had been someone in the April elections who could have stepped forward
and usurped the leadership, like Ariel Sharon once did to the Likud, Israel
wouldn’t have had to have a second round of elections.
The problem is that, even now, we're dependent on people who haven't shown a
sliver of leadership skills, and it's hard to imagine any of them showing any
today.
But now, we have someone who stepped up, and he was the one who brought the
revolution we witnessed on Tuesday.
Avigdor Liberman is not only the winner of these elections, he's also the one
who gets to choose the identity of the next government.
It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that if the election's actual results are
similar to the surveys, the chairman of Yisrael Beytenu could very well change
the face of the country. And now the Likud, whose members signed a declaration
of eternal loyalty to Netanyahu, needs to act. It's not easy turning your back
on a leader, especially in a party like the Likud, but it's inevitable.
If the Likud doesn't pull itself together, we could find ourselves on a slippery
slope to a third round of elections.
On Tuesday, we heard some voices in the party declaring Netanyahu as the Likud's
sole leader. Allow me to scoff, we'll all see how fast things are going to
change over there. So maybe the Likud is the one who's going to build the next
government, it's hard to see how Benny Gantz can form a coalition without
uniting with the Likud, but whatever it might be, it won’t be Netanyahu's Likud
anymore. Gantz has a massive mission to undertake, let's hope he can rise to the
challenge.