LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 17/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The Lord is near. Do not worry about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God.
Letter to the Philippians 04/01-07:”Therefore, my brothers and sisters, whom I love and long for, my joy and crown, stand firm in the Lord in this way, my beloved. I urge Euodia and I urge Syntyche to be of the same mind in the Lord. Yes, and I ask you also, my loyal companion, help these women, for they have struggled beside me in the work of the gospel, together with Clement and the rest of my co-workers, whose names are in the book of life. Rejoice in the Lord always; again I will say, Rejoice. Let your gentleness be known to everyone. The Lord is near. Do not worry about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 16-17/2019
Lebanon tribunal issues new murder charges against man accused of former PM’s assassination
STL Indicts Ayyash over Hawi, Hamadeh and Murr Attacks
Hariri Meets Qatari Energy Minister, IFC Vice President
Protesters Demand ‘Severe Penalty’ for Former Militia Member Accused of Torture
Ethiopia Releases Lebanese Businessman Held since Last Week
Jumblat on Aramco Attacks: Lebanon Might Be Greatly Affected
Report: More Lebanese Banks Could Be Hit by U.S. Sanctions
Hariri Visits Jumblat, Stresses Need to Counter Economic Slowdown
Nasrallah taking Lebanon to war for Iran’s benefit

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 16-17/2019
Trump says it is ‘looking like’ Iran is to blame for Saudi attacks
Pentagon chief: Attack on Saudi Arabia ‘unprecedented’
Senior US senator: Saudi attack shows Iran seeks to ‘sow instability’
Saudi Crown Prince says Iranian threats affects the region and the world
Saudi Arabia can ‘respond strongly’ to recent attacks: Foreign Ministry
Russia offers Saudi missile defenses after attack
US officials inform Saudi Arabia that Iran is source of oil facility attack: Report
Arab Coalition: Investigations indicate weapons in Aramco attacks were Iranian
Iran Says 'No Plans' for Rouhani-Trump Meet on UN Sidelines
Kremlin Warns against 'Hasty' Conclusions on Saudi Attacks
Oil Prices Surge after Attacks Hammer Saudi Output
Erdogan Hosts Putin, Rouhani for Syria Summi
Outsider Leads after Divisive Tunisia Presidential Poll

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 16-17/2019
Lebanon tribunal issues new murder charges against man accused of former PM’s assassination/Najla Houssari/Arab News/September 16/2019
STL Indicts Ayyash over Hawi, Hamadeh and Murr Attacks/Naharnet/September 16/2019
Nasrallah taking Lebanon to war for Iran’s benefit/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/September 16/2019
Response to Saudi Aramco attacks crucial to oil price/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/September 16/2019
Iran is an evil state that threatens everyone/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/September 16/2019
China would be unwise to try and wait out Trump/Ellen R. Wald/Arab News/September 16/2019
Abqaiq and Khurais attacks demand a strong response/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/September 16/2019
Netanyahu’s annexation plan far more than an election ploy/Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/September 16/2019
Trump should prioritize US allies over new Iran deal/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 16/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 16-17/2019
Lebanon tribunal issues new murder charges against man accused of former PM’s assassination
Najla Houssari/Arab News/September 16/2019
Hezbollah suspect Salim Ayyash is one of four defendants accused of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005 and is on trial in absentia
BEIRUT: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on Monday issued five new charges against Hezbollah cadre Salim Ayyash relating to the killings of three men including former secretary-general of the Lebanese Communist Party, George Hawi.
Pre-trial judge, Daniel Fransen, also sent out warrants for the arrest of court fugitive Ayyash to the Lebanese government and international police organizations.
Ayyash is one of four defendants accused of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005 and is on trial in absentia.
Fransen declassified an indictment against Ayyash, born in 1963, concerning attacks targeting Lebanese ministers Marwan Hamadeh (assassination attempt, 2004) and Elias Murr (assassination attempt, 2005), and Hawi (assassination, 2005).
The pre-trial judge’s move opens the way for a new case before the international tribunal which was set up to try the killers of Hariri and other connected terrorist crimes.
Ayyash has been charged with five counts of “conspiracy to commit terrorist acts” which include the intentional homicide with premeditation of Ghazi Abou-Karroum, Khaled Moura and Hawi, and the attempted intentional homicide with premeditation of Murr, Hamadeh and 17 other people.
According to the STL’s press office, the confirmation of the indictment means that “the pre-trial judge is satisfied, based on the supporting materials, that the prosecutor has established a prima facie case against Mr. Salim Jamil Ayyash and that there are grounds to initiate trial proceedings.
“This is not a verdict of guilt and Mr. Ayyash is presumed innocent unless his guilt is established beyond reasonable doubt at trial.”
The indictment and arrest warrant were transmitted to the Lebanese authorities, which “have the obligation to search for, arrest and transfer the accused to the STL’s custody.”
The STL said that Ayyash must now be formally notified of the charges against him. “If the accused cannot be found, the trial chamber may decide to try him in absentia.”
The press office said that following “reasonable attempts” to locate the accused and serve the indictment, the tribunal president could, after consulting the pre-trial judge, advertise the indictment in an effort to alert Ayyash of the need to appear before the tribunal and encourage anyone with information about his whereabouts to inform the tribunal.
It added: “If within 30 calendar days following such an advertisement, the accused is not under the tribunal’s authority, the pre-trial judge shall ask the trial chamber to initiate proceedings in absentia.”
In February, the STL concluded trials in absentia of four men accused of masterminding and executing the assassination of Hariri and is expected to rule on the defendants Assad Hassan Sabra (born 1976), Hussein Hassan Enissi (born 1974), Hassan Habib Merhi (born 1965), and Ayyash.
The STL overturned the prosecution of a fifth defendant, Mustafa Badreddine, who was killed in a mysterious operation in the Syrian capital Damascus in 2016.
The STL has more than 6 million papers and documents relating to the case.

STL Indicts Ayyash over Hawi, Hamadeh and Murr Attacks
Naharnet/September 16/2019
The Pre-Trial Judge at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) Daniel Fransen lifted Monday the confidentiality off his decision that confirmed an indictment against Salim Jamil Ayyash relating to the attacks against Marwan Hamadeh, Georges Hawi and Elias Murr, the STL said.
The confirmation of this indictment marks the opening of a new case before the STL, the court said in a statement.
The indictment charges Ayyash, a suspected Hizbullah operative, with five counts:
"- Conspiracy aimed at committing a terrorist act
-In the alternative to conspiracy aimed at committing a terrorist act, criminal association
- Committing terrorist acts
- Intentional homicide with premeditation of Messrs Ghazi Abou-Karroum, Georges Hawi and Khaled Moura
- Attempted intentional homicide with premeditation of Messrs Elias Murr, Marwan Hamade and 17 other persons."
The Pre-Trial Judge has issued an arrest warrant for execution by the Lebanese authorities and an international arrest warrant for Ayyash.
The confirmation of the indictment means that the Pre-Trial Judge is satisfied, based on the supporting materials, that the Prosecutor has established a prima facie case against Ayyash and that there are grounds to initiate trial proceedings.
The STL noted that "this is not a verdict of guilt and Mr Ayyash is presumed innocent unless his guilt is established beyond reasonable doubt at trial."
"The indictment and arrest warrant were transmitted to the Lebanese authorities. They have the obligation to search for, arrest and transfer the accused to the STL’s custody," it added .
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon has jurisdiction over persons responsible for attacks that took place in Lebanon between 1 October 2004 and 12 December 2005 if the Tribunal finds that these attacks are connected to the attack of 14 February 2005, which killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and many others.
The Pre-Trial Judge determined that three terrorist attacks against Lebanese politicians Marwan Hamadeh, Georges Hawi and Elias Murr are connected to the 14 February 2005 attack. The STL took jurisdiction on 5 August 2011.
- Information about the attacks:
On 1 October 2004, an explosive device targeted Hamadeh in Beirut. Hamadeh and another person were injured, and his bodyguard was killed.
On 21 June 2005, an explosive device targeted Hawi in Beirut. Hawi was killed and two other persons were injured.
On 12 July 2005, an explosive device targeted Murr in Antelias. One person was killed, and Murr and fourteen others were injured.
The STL has tried Ayyash and three other Hizbullah operatives in absentia over Hariri's killing and verdicts are expected soon.

Hariri Meets Qatari Energy Minister, IFC Vice President
Naharnet/September 16/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri held talks on Monday at the Grand Serail with Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of Qatar Petroleum where talks focused on energy cooperation between Lebanon and Qatar. NNA said al-Kaabi was accompanied by the Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Hassan Jaber al-Jaber. Hariri earlier received the International Finance Corporation’s Vice President for the Middle East and Africa, Sergio Pimenta, and the World Bank Regional Director Saroj Kumar Jha. The meeting focused on the work of IFC and the projects it finances in Lebanon.

Protesters Demand ‘Severe Penalty’ for Former Militia Member Accused of Torture
Naharnet/September 16/2019
A crowd of citizens gathered in front of Beirut’s Justice Palace in protest against allowing senior member of a disbanded Israel-backed militia, Amer al-Fakhoury, enter Lebanon demanding severe sentence against him, the National News Agency reported on Monday. The protesters demanded strict punishment for al-Fakhoury, a former member of the pro-Israel South Lebanon Army (SLA) militia and a senior warden in the notorious SLA-run Khiyam prison. His return revived accusations of torture. A committee representing the liberated prisoners from Israeli occupation jails had earlier filed a lawsuit against Fakhoury.
The country's General Security agency has been interrogating Fakhoury since Wednesday. Another security source said the former SLA member had fled to the United States and had already been charged in absentia to 15 years in prison for collaborating with Israel. Opened in 1984 in an Israeli-occupied part of southern Lebanon, the Khiyam prison was run by the Christian-dominated SLA. Former inmates accuse Fakhoury of ordering the torture of thousands of detainees held there before Israeli forces withdrew from the area in 2000, ending their 22-year occupation of south Lebanon.

Ethiopia Releases Lebanese Businessman Held since Last Week
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 16/2019
The Lebanese Foreign Ministry says Ethiopia has released a Lebanese businessman who had been detained in the African nation since last week. The ministry said Sunday that Hassan Jaber will head from Ethiopia to the African nation of Gabon and later will return to Lebanon. On Friday, the ministry had summoned Ethiopia's charge d'affaires demanding information about Jaber, whom it said was detained in Addis Ababa on Sept. 7. It informed the Ethiopian diplomat that Beirut wants "clear answers" by Monday, otherwise Lebanon would take countermeasures.Some Lebanese media outlets have speculated that Israel or the United States might have been behind Jaber's arrest. The ministry did not give any explanation why Jaber was held in Ethiopia.

Jumblat on Aramco Attacks: Lebanon Might Be Greatly Affected
Naharnet/September 16/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Monday described as “conspiracy of the era” the “sabotage” attack at oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, adding that Lebanon will be one of the parties “greatly” harmed by that. “The attack on Saudi oil facilities goes beyond Yemen's war, which must be solved peacefully,” said Jumblat in a tweet. “This sabotage act is aimed at destroying the oil infrastructure in the Gulf and in Saudi Arabia, undermining the stability of most of the Arab peoples and their impoverishment and preventing them from advancing, Lebanon will be one of the countries worst affected,” he said. Lebanon signed its first contract to drill for oil and gas in its waters last year. It prepares to launch offshore drilling by the end of 2019. “It is the conspiracy of the era,” added the PSP leader. Sunday’s attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels in neighbouring Yemen on two Saudi facilities, hit two sites owned by state-run giant Aramco and effectively shut down six percent of the global oil supply. US President Donald Trump said the US was "locked and loaded" to respond to the attack. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held “Iran accountable for its aggression.”Tehran denies the accusations but the news revived fears of a conflict in the tinderbox Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers earlier this year that were also blamed on Iran.

Report: More Lebanese Banks Could Be Hit by U.S. Sanctions
Naharnet/September 16/2019
Three Lebanese financial institutions could be subject to US sanctions, shortly after a batch of sanctions hit Jammal Trust Bank for “facilitating banking activities for Hizbullah, and its three subsidiaries,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. The daily quoted “reliable” sources as saying that the decision “has been taken to put three Lebanese banks on the sanctions list.”However, they did not specify when the decision will be issued. In August, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank for "knowingly facilitating banking activities" for Hizbullah, “Iran's proxy in Lebanon,” as part of a maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. The bank and Hizbullah have been doing business since at least the mid-2000s, Treasury said. The U.S. has been imposing sanctions on officials from Hizbullah, which Washington considers a terrorist organization.

Hariri Visits Jumblat, Stresses Need to Counter Economic Slowdown
Naharnet/September 16/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri visited Head of the Progressive Socialist Party ex-MP Walid Jumblat at the latter’s residence in Clemenceau, in the presence of Minister Wael Abou Faour and former Minister Ghattas Khoury. After the meeting, Hariri said: “I wanted to accept an old invitation from Walid Jumblat, whom I wanted to meet in light of the economic situation we are going through and discuss with him the economic issues and reforms that we must undertake, because the first concern of the citizen today is the economic situation. We have to work quickly, and today’s meeting was to coordinate positions that we may differ on, but the basis in the end is the country’s interest. We also tackled the situation in the region and its developments. On the country’s 2020 draft budget Hariri said: “There have been discussions between ministers in the government. The main idea is to approve the budget within the constitutional deadline, this did not happen for a long time, but this is how it should be in the future. The basis of this budget is to develop a three-year plan to meet all the challenges. We cannot ask anyone to take all the measures at once or carry out all the reforms within two or three months. This economic vision requires linking the budget to 2021 and 2022 budgets and be accompanied by measures we will undertake during the next two years, thus bringing Lebanon to safety. Whether the government plans to impose new taxes in the upcoming budget, Hariri said: “The main idea in the 2020 budget was to look for new sources of revenues while seriously working to end smuggling and not increase or impose new taxes. Putting an end to smuggling would increase the state’s revenues, knowing that we must always remember that our economy is “going down” even if all the illegal crossings are closed. We should not expect very high revenues.
The main idea in this budget, as Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said, is to reach a budget in which spending equals revenues, with a deficit fixed at 7.6 or less, and that any future spending should be investment spending, whether in CEDRE, the McKinsey plan or others.”
On his planned trip to France to meet French President to launch CEDRE projects, the Premier said: “This is the main idea. We worked to establish a committee that includes Lebanon and all the donor countries to continue the transparency and the way projects will be implemented. There have been discussions about this committee, and we finished them now and hopefully we will be able to launch CEDRE projects in the next phase.”To a question about the state appointments and resentment among ranks of the Lebanese Forces, he said: “We surely need to make appointments, the Lebanese Forces are a key component of this government, and everyone is aware of the friendship and the alliance that we have. But we should all know, including myself, that we cannot stop at any issue that might delay the work, especially during the coming six months because we don’t have the time or the luxury to delay things. The Lebanese Forces should definitely have a share, this will happen in the future and we discussed this issue with the Free Patriotic Movement.”For his part, Jumblat said: “As Premier Hariri said, we will discuss some details that we may agree or disagree on, but this is an internal issue.”

Nasrallah taking Lebanon to war for Iran’s benefit
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/September 16/2019
Although Lebanon is a small state in terms of its geography and population, it has a reputation in the Middle East for being a theater of war. This is due to the fact that many regional countries have settled their own conflicts and disagreements there via proxies.
Those acquainted with Lebanon’s history will understand the tensions and bloodshed that it has endured in the past. Despite these dark clouds, which have tainted Lebanon’s history, it has apparently not learned any lessons from these traumatic experiences, nor has it sought to avoid involvement in external conflicts.
The striking reality is that Hezbollah is leading their youth to their deaths in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The group, backed by the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has adeptly exploited the desperation of the Lebanese youth and turned them into dispensable drug mules to supply and smuggle narcotics. The IRGC has trained them to be fighters in militias and to engage in criminal activities, such as kidnapping, theft and murder. In addition, the IRGC has implanted sectarian identities in the minds of these youths, leading to intensifying sectarian tensions and widening fault lines in Lebanese society.
Don’t the Lebanese people wonder about the reasons why tens of thousands of their young people are being thrown into the Syrian inferno, resulting in the death of more than 1,000 young Lebanese men in battles they have nothing to do with? Shouldn’t the honorable Lebanese people question the reasons behind the engagement of their youth in fighting in Yemen or Iraq?
Isn’t it considered worthy of public complaint in Lebanon that domestic groups and foreign powers are allowed to exploit the Lebanese youth, involving them in sectarian conflicts and transnational political projects that the Lebanese people have nothing to do with, therefore wrecking their future as well as their contribution toward building a flourishing, stable nation?
Equally important, what about the agreements signed by Lebanon’s leaders on behalf of the Lebanese people, which oblige all parties to lay down their arms as a way of achieving their legitimate objective of limiting weapons in the hands of the government?
We are currently living in the era of the modern nation state, where empty heroic slogans have no place in political discourse and governance. Also, there is no possibility to hide from or to evade this truth, even if some people attempt to by misleading the public by playing on emotions and focusing on marginal issues that have nothing to do with the core problems Lebanon is facing.
In Lebanon, we are dealing with a state that has been hijacked by Iran to serve its political and nationalist projects and interests.
In Lebanon, we are dealing with a state that has been hijacked by Iran to serve its political and nationalist projects and interests. Tehran has installed loyalist leaders in power to implement its projects, paying no heed to the interests of the country and region or to the interests of the Lebanese people at home and abroad.
Let us be more candid and transparent about this issue. Let every single Lebanese citizen ask themselves what Iran has offered their country, except for death, destruction and an escalation of security and sectarian tensions, thrusting divisions in Lebanese society to the surface. How many young Lebanese searching for decent jobs have found them in Iran? What is the volume of Lebanese exports to Iran? How much money, if any, can Lebanese citizens working in Iran remit to their homeland to revitalize its national economy? And what are the Lebanese differences that Iran has managed to settle?
Those defending Hezbollah by whatever justifications they can think of to convince the Lebanese mind that it works in Lebanon’s interests have been let down by the secretary-general of Hezbollah himself, Hassan Nasrallah, when he said: “The leader of our camp today is the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) and its center is the Islamic Republic of Iran.” This statement is clear proof that Nasrallah is working for Iran in Lebanon and not for Lebanon’s national interests.
If Nasrallah is, as he freely admits, nothing but a soldier in Khamenei’s army, what results are the Lebanese people and government expecting and awaiting apart from more destruction and Lebanon’s involvement in reckless misadventures to serve Iranian projects that have nothing to do with Lebanese and Arab interests?
The painful reality is that Nasrallah, on Tehran’s directives, is setting the scene to catapult Lebanon into a new armed conflict with Israel to achieve many objectives, all of which only serve the Iranian regime. The consequences of this clash will be far more devastating than those of 2006. Will Lebanon be able to endure this?
It is time for the Gulf states to be more candid toward Lebanon and assert that they will not pay a single dollar for future Lebanese reconstruction projects, as they have done in the past, if it continues down this destructive path by allowing Hezbollah to direct Lebanese policies based on Iranian directives.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 16-17/2019
Trump says it is ‘looking like’ Iran is to blame for Saudi attacks
The Associated Press/Monday, 16 September 2019
President Donald Trump says it is “looking like” Iran was responsible for the attacks on key oil installations in Saudi Arabia, but he says he doesn’t want war. Trump said Monday at the White House that the US is not looking at retaliatory options until he has “definitive proof” that Iran was responsible. Still, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the US “is prepared” if the attacks warrant a response. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also says “emerging information indicates that responsibility lies with Iran.”Iran has denied involvement, though it comes amid heightened tensions over Tehran’s unraveling nuclear deal with world powers, including the US, which pulled out of the deal last year. Trump says Pompeo will be traveling to Saudi Arabia but did not say when.

Pentagon chief: Attack on Saudi Arabia ‘unprecedented’
Reuters, Washington/Monday, 16 September 2019
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday that the recent attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities was “unprecedented” and the United States, along with its allies, was working to defend the “international rules-based order that is being undermined by Iran.”Esper said on twitter that he had returned to the Pentagon after a meeting at the White House, where Defense Department leadership and others briefed President Donald Trump on the situation. Senator Jim Risch, the Republican chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, slammed Iran’s government on Monday after Saturday’s attack on Saudi oil facilities, saying it underscored “Iran’s effort to sow instability throughout the Middle East.”

Senior US senator: Saudi attack shows Iran seeks to ‘sow instability’
Reuters/Monday, 16 September 2019
Senator Jim Risch, the Republican chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, slammed Iran’s government on Monday after Saturday’s attack on Saudi oil facilities, saying it underscored “Iran’s effort to sow instability throughout the Middle East.”Risch also warned against any possible attack on US forces in a statement. “Iran should not underestimate the United States’ resolve,” he said. “Any attack against US forces deployed abroad must be met with an overwhelming response - no targets are off the table.”

Saudi Crown Prince says Iranian threats affects the region and the world
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 16 September 2019
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz received a phone call on Monday from US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. The US Secretary of Defense stressed during his call on Washington’s full support to the Kingdom following the recent attacks on two oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. Esper praised the Kingdom's role in supporting international efforts to address the Iranian threat in the threat of maritime navigation.For his part, the Crown Prince stressed that the Iranian threats are not only directed against the Kingdom but also affects the Middle East and the world.

Saudi Arabia can ‘respond strongly’ to recent attacks: Foreign Ministry
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 16 September 2019
Saudi Arabia is capable of defending its lands and people and can respond strongly to these attacks, the Kingdom says in a Foreign Ministry statement. In its statement, Saudi Arabia said it will invite international experts including from the United Nations to participate in investigating an attack on its oil facilities and called on the world to condemn those behind it. “Saudi Arabia condemns this grave attack, which threatens international peace and security, and maintains that the aim of this attack is directed primarily at the global energy supply, and is an extension of previous hostile acts against pumping stations of Saudi Aramco through the use of Iranian weapons,” according to the statement. The Saudi foreign ministry also expressed its appreciation to all regional and international parties that condemned the attack and called on the international community to “shoulder its responsibilities in condemning the perpetrators.”
The Arab Coalition said that investigations indicated that the weapons used in the attacks on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities are Iranian. “The investigation is continuing and all indications are that weapons used in both attacks came from Iran,” The coalition’s spokesperson Turki al-Maliki told reporters in Riyadh, adding they were now probing “from where they were fired.”

Russia offers Saudi missile defenses after attack
AFP/Monday, 16 September 2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to sell Saudi Arabia its missile defense systems on Monday in the wake of the attack on its oil facilities.
“We are ready to help Saudi Arabia so that she can protect her territory. “She can do so in the same way that Iran has already done in buying the S-300 Russian missile system and the same way that Turkey has already done in buying the S-400 Russian missile system,” Putin said at a press conference in Ankara, alongside the Turkish and Iranian leaders.

US officials inform Saudi Arabia that Iran is source of oil facility attack: Report
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 16 September 2019
American officials have informed Saudi Arabia that US intelligence indicates that Iran is the source of the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). “Both countries weigh retaliatory strikes, according to people familiar with the discussions. The assessment … comes as President Trump raises the prospect of the US and Saudi Arabia joining forces to launch a retaliatory strike on Iran,” the report added. Saudi officials have said that the information shared by the US was not definitive and that they have not reached the same conclusion yet, according to the WSJ. The Arab coalition had said earlier that they were continuing the investigation with the relevant authorities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and that the initial investigation indicated that the weapons used in the attack which targeted oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais were Iranian.

Arab Coalition: Investigations indicate weapons in Aramco attacks were Iranian
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 16 September 2019
The Arab Coalition said that investigations indicated that the weapons used in the attacks on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities are Iranian. The coalition’s spokesperson Turki al-Maliki said on Monday that the coalition has the ability to confront attacks, and defend vital oil facilities.  “The investigation is continuing and all indications are that weapons used in both attacks came from Iran,” al-Maliki told reporters in Riyadh, adding they were now probing “from where they were fired.”Al-Maliki said the results of the investigation would be made public to the media when complete. Saturday's attacks hit Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Hijrat Khurais in Saudi Arabia. Al-Maliki's comments come a day after US President Donald Trump said that the US knows who was behind the attacks and is “locked and loaded,” but is waiting for verification and for a Saudi assessment of responsibility before deciding how to proceed. The scope and precision of drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities show they were launched from a west-northwest direction rather than from Yemen to the south, where Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, added senior US administration officials on Sunday. US officials pointed to satellite imagery showing 19 points of impact on the oil facilities. The attacks on Saturday risk disruptions to the world’s oil supplies.

Iran Says 'No Plans' for Rouhani-Trump Meet on UN Sidelines
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 16/2019
Iran said Monday there were no plans for President Hassan Rouhani to meet his US counterpart Donald Trump at an upcoming UN gathering, as tensions mount between the arch-foes over attacks on Saudi oil sites. European powers have been trying to de-escalate the tensions that have spiralled since Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran. The White House said on Sunday that Trump could meet Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week. That was despite accusations from Washington that Tehran was to blame for the weekend attacks that knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil production and sent crude prices surging on global markets. "We have neither planned for this meeting, nor do I think such a thing would happen in New York," Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said, quoted by the semi-official ISNA news agency. "As we have stated before, if the Americans return to the JCPOA and cease their economic terrorism, they can return to the joint commission and talk," Mousavi added. He was referring to a commission within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 agreement that gave Iran the promise of relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear programme. Iran again dismissed accusations from the United States that it was behind the Saudi attacks, saying instead that they resulted from the intervention of a coalition led by US ally Saudi Arabia in Yemen's war. "Yemen has been under attack for five years, leaving many dead and children homeless," said government spokesman Ali Rabiei. The Saudi attacks were "the result of this five-year war against defenceless people which is the root of the region's insecurity", he told a news conference in Tehran.
The Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen in March 2015 after Huthi rebels drove the government out of the capital Sanaa and seized swathes of other territory.
- US 'shifting blame' -
The Iran-aligned Huthis claimed responsibility for the weekend strikes on the oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province. Trump said on Sunday that the US was "locked and loaded" to respond after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned Iran for the attacks and said it would be "held accountable". Iran on Monday dismissed the accusations, saying they were "part of America's psychological warfare". "This is a type of American tradition in shifting the blame," said government spokesman Rabiei. The attacks on the Saudi oil facilities were "the natural reaction to suppressing the people of a country... and those who would get hurt are in the region", he said. "What benefit could we possibly get?" Since pulling out of the nuclear deal, the US has slapped waves of sanctions on Iran that have targeted its armed forces, financial sector and senior officials, including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. That has raised questions as to whether or not Iran's top diplomat will attend the UN gathering in New York at which the general debate opens on September 24. His ministry's spokesman Mousavi said on Monday that Zarif would travel to New York for the gathering together with Rouhani "if the conditions are right".

Kremlin Warns against 'Hasty' Conclusions on Saudi Attacks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 16/2019
The Kremlin on Monday warned against a hasty reaction to the drone strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that Washington has blamed on Iran. "We call on all countries to avoid hasty steps or conclusions that could exacerbate the situation, and on the contrary keep to a line of conduct that will help soften the impact of the situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

Oil Prices Surge after Attacks Hammer Saudi Output
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 16/2019
Oil prices saw a record surge Monday after attacks on two Saudi facilities slashed output in the world's top exporter by half, fuelling fresh geopolitical fears as Donald Trump blamed Iran and raised the possibility of a military strike on the country. Brent futures surged $12 in the first few minutes of business -- the most in dollar terms since they were launched in 1988 and representing a jump of nearly 20 percent -- while WTI jumped more than $8, or 15 percent.
Both contracts pared the gains as the day wore on but were still up around 10 percent. The attack -- claimed by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels in neighbouring Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is bogged down in a five-year war -- hit two sites owned by state-run giant Aramco and effectively shut down six percent of the global oil supply. Trump said Sunday the US was "locked and loaded" to respond to the attack, but was in talks with Riyadh.
And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: "The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression."Tehran denies the accusations but the news revived fears of a conflict in the tinderbox Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers earlier this year that were also blamed on Iran. But The New York Times reported that US officials had satellite images showing the attacks -- possibly with drones and cruise missiles -- had come from the north or northwest. That indicated they were sourced in the northern Persian Gulf, Iran or Iraq, rather than Yemen. "Tensions in the Middle East are rising quickly, meaning this story will continue to reverberate this week even after the knee-jerk panic in oil markets this morning," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Trump authorised the release of US supplies from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Aramco said more than half of the five million barrels of production lost will be restored by tomorrow. But the strikes raise concerns about the security of supplies from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. "The implications of these attacks are far-reaching and lasting, going well beyond the immediate disruption to albeit a very large portion of global output," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. "It is a material escalation in the risks to supply and, in short, traders now worry that Saudi Arabian oil production can be swiftly and easily knocked out."
Energy firms surge
Oil prices had dropped last week after news that Trump had fired his anti-Iran hawkish national security adviser John Bolton, which was seen as paving the way for an easing of tensions in the region. "One thing we can say with confidence is that if part of the reason for last week's fall in oil and improvement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of John Bolton's sacking... and thought this was a precursor to some form of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is no longer valid," said Ray Attrill at National Australia Bank. The surge in crude lit a fire under energy firms, with Hong Kong-listed CNOOC up more than seven percent and PetroChina four percent higher. Woodside Petroleum rallied more than four percent in Sydney. However, airlines took a hit from the prospect of higher fuel costs. Cathay Pacific dropped almost five percent in Hong Kong, Air China dropped 5.5 percent in Shanghai and Qantas dived more than four percent in Sydney. Asian stock markets were mostly down after last week's rally that was fuelled by China-US trade hopes, while investors are awaiting a key Federal Reserve policy meeting hoping for another cut in interest rates.
Shanghai was marginally lower after data showed China's huge economy showed further signs of slowing last month, with retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial production all missing forecasts. Hong Kong sank more than one percent after fresh violent protests struck the city at the weekend, while Singapore shed 0.1 percent and Jakarta sank two percent. There were also losses in Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Wellington. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. Sydney added 0.1 percent, Seoul gained 0.6 percent and Taipei was 0.7 percent higher. In early trade, London fell 0.2 percent, while Frankfurt and Paris shed 0.6 percent apiece. On foreign exchanges, higher-yielding currencies dropped as traders shifted to safe-haven units such as the yen and dollar, while gold -- a go-to asset in times of uncertainty -- rose more than one percent.
The pound held its own around seven-week highs owing to easing fears of a no-deal Brexit.
- Key figures around 0720 GMT -
West Texas Intermediate: UP $5.07 at $59.92 per barrel
Brent North Sea crude: UP $6.13 at $66.45 per barrel
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 1.2 percent at 27,036.92
Shanghai - Composite: FLAT at 3,030.75 (close)
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 7,353.66
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a public holiday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2481 from $1.2496 at 2030 GMT
Euro/pound: UP at 88.80 pence from 88.66 pence
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1071 from $1.1078
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 107.80 yen from 108.11 yen
New York - Dow: UP 0.1 percent at 27,219.52 (close)

Erdogan Hosts Putin, Rouhani for Syria Summit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 16/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host his Russian and Iranian counterparts on Monday for their latest summit on Syria, with attention focused on Damascus's push on the last rebel-held bastion of Idlib. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani will join Erdogan in the Turkish capital Ankara for their fifth summit on the conflict since 2017. Iran and Russia have been staunch supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey has called for his ouster and backed opposition fighters. But with Assad's position looking increasingly secure, Turkey's priority has shifted to preventing a mass influx of refugees from Idlib in Syria's northwest. Turkey is concerned by the steady advance of Syrian forces into the region, backed by Russian airpower, despite a series of ceasefires. Turkey has 12 observation posts in Idlib to enforce a buffer zone agreement struck a year ago with Russia to prevent a full-scale Syrian offensive. But the posts look increasingly threatened, with one of them cut off from the rest of Idlib when Syrian forces advanced last month.  Russian air strikes have continued in the region despite the latest ceasefire between Ankara and Moscow on August 31. "A large number of terrorists are still present in this zone... and fighters continue to fire on the positions of government forces," Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov said on Friday.
Low expectations
The Turkish presidency said the leaders would discuss the latest developments in Syria as well as "ensuring the necessary conditions for the voluntary return of refugees and discussing the joint step to be taken in the period ahead with the aim of achieving a lasting political solution." Moscow is keen to see progress on establishing a constitutional committee to oversee the next stage of the political settlement in Syria. That would give Putin a political win to add to its military victories, said Dareen Khalifa, senior Syria analyst at International Crisis Group. But she said expectations should remain low. Even if they could agree on who will form the committee, "this leaves a crux of issues unaddressed for the future of the political process including the regime's ability and willingness to undertake any kind of political reform," Khalifa told AFP. All three leaders are expected to hold one-on-one meetings before the summit, the Kremlin said.
They will also hold a closing news conference with a view to presenting a joint declaration. Meanwhile, Turkey has other concerns regarding Syria. It has repeatedly threatened to launch a cross-border offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces, whom it sees as allied to Kurdish militants in its own territory. That has strained Turkey's relations with its NATO ally, the United States, which backs the Syrian Kurds as the main fighting force against the Islamic State group (IS).
The US has vowed to work with Turkey to clear Kurdish forces away from its border, but Ankara says progress has so far been "cosmetic" and it could launch an operation into Syria by the end of this month. Turkey has conducted two previous offensives against IS in 2016 and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia in 2018.

Outsider Leads after Divisive Tunisia Presidential Poll
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 16/2019
Political outsider Kais Saied was leading Tunisia's election with just over a quarter of votes counted, the election commission said Monday, in the country's second free presidential vote since the Arab Spring. Saied was on 19 percent, leading imprisoned media magnate Nabil Karoui, who was on 14.9 percent, and ahead of the candidate from the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party Abdelfattah Mourou (13.1 percent). The announcement came after both Saied and Karoui's camp claimed to have won through to the second round, in the highly divisive polls.
Local papers splashed photos across their front pages of law professor Saied and magnate Karoui, after exit polls showed they had qualified for the second round of voting. "An unexpected verdict," ran a headline in La Presse. Le Temps titled its editorial "The Slap", while the Arabic language Echourouk newspaper highlighted a "political earthquake" and a "tsunami" in the Maghreb. The initial signs point towards a major upset for Tunisia's political establishment, in place since the 2011 uprising that ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
It could also usher in a period of immense uncertainty for the fledgling north African democracy, the sole success story of the Arab Spring revolts. Tunisia's electoral commission (ISIE) reported low turnout at 45 percent, down from 64 percent in the country's first democratic polls in 2014. Late Sunday, Prime Minister Youssef Chahed called on the liberal and centrist camps to band together for legislative elections set for October 6, voicing concern that low participation was "bad for the democratic transition". Chahed, a presidential hopeful whose popularity has been tarnished by a sluggish economy and the rising cost of living, could well turn out to be the election's biggest loser.
'Wait and see'
The election comes against a backdrop of serious social and economic crises.
Karoui, a 56-year-old media magnate, has been behind bars since August 23 on charges of money laundering and Tunisia's judiciary has refused his release three times. A controversial businessman, labelled a "populist" by critics, Karoui built his appeal by using his Nessma television channel to launch charity campaigns, handing out food aid to some of the country's poorest. His apparent rival is political neophyte Saied. The highly conservative constitutionalist, known to Tunisians for his televised political commentary since the 2011 revolt, has shunned political parties and mass rallies. Instead, he has opted to go door-to-door to explain his policies. He advocates a rigorous overhaul of the constitution and voting system, to decentralise power "so that the will of the people penetrates into central government and puts an end to corruption". Often surrounded by young acolytes, he also set forth his social conservatism, defending the death penalty, criminalisation of homosexuality and a sexual assault law that punishes unmarried couples who engage in public displays of affection. "It's going to be new," said a baker named Said on Monday, issuing a wry smile. "We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, what matters in Tunisia is the parliament."
'Disgust' with political elite
The first round was marked by high rates of apathy among young voters, pushing ISIE head to put out an emergency call to them Sunday an hour before polls closed. On Sunday morning, senior citizen Adil Toumi had asked as he voted in the capital "where are the young people?"Political scientist Hamza Meddeb told AFP "this is a sign of very deep discontent with the political class that has not met economic and social expectations," "Disgust with the political elite seems to have resulted in a vote for outsiders." Distrust of the political establishment runs high in Tunisia, where unemployment is at 15 percent and the cost of living has risen by close to a third since 2016. Jihadist attacks have exacted a heavy toll on the key tourism sector. Around 70,000 security forces were mobilised for the polls.
The date of a second and final round between the top two candidates has not been announced, but it must be held by October 23 at the latest and may even take place on the same day as legislative polls, October 6.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 16-17/2019
Response to Saudi Aramco attacks crucial to oil price
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/September 16/2019
The world collectively held its breath when drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil production facilities of Khurais and Abqaiq were reported on Saturday. At the opening of trade on Monday, Brent shot up 20 percent on the news that Abqaiq, which is the world’s largest oil processing plant, was down 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd). That is about 6 percent of global production. Markets calmed down when US President Donald Trump said he was prepared to release some of the US strategic reserves. By mid-morning, Brent was trading at $65.8 per barrel, up 9.2 percent.
This may have been the biggest daily jump in the price of oil in history. Market sentiment was akin to when Saddam Hussein invaded Iraq or when the shah was overthrown in Iran. Markets always overshoot and it may make sense to put things in perspective.
Sources told CNBC that Saudi Aramco’s inventory is significant. The US and the International Energy Agency (IEA) hold emergency stocks, which should calm market sentiment. On Monday morning, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated that inventories were high enough to cover the temporary shortfall from Saudi Arabia.
So much for the positive side. However, we need to drill down on what these attacks mean in the longer term.
Firstly, there is the immediate shortfall because Saudi Aramco’s flagship processing plant is out of commission. This is resulting in a temporary price spike. A lot will depend on how quickly Saudi Aramco can restore the facilities. Oil processing plants are not light switches, which can easily be turned on. It will take time to ramp production up. The quicker this can happen, the quicker traders will be assuaged and the more temporary the spike in the oil price will be.
The second issue has longer-term ramifications. Analysts and observers realize that they might not have put enough emphasis on the geopolitical risk premium to date. Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf Cooperation Council are islands of stability in a sea of turmoil and armed conflict. The events that unfolded on Saturday show how easily the conflict can hit home. Citibank’s Ed Morse is of the opinion that geopolitical risk has not been adequately reflected in the price of oil. He only gained this insight after Saturday. In that he is not alone among the analyst community.
There can be mitigating factors here. Markets will watch how the Kingdom reacts. It will go a long way if the military apparatus demonstrates that it is beefing up its air defense capabilities — including against low-flying drones.
Let us be clear that the risk premium has come back. However, how high it will be and how long concerns last will depend, to a large extent, on how both Saudi Aramco and the Ministry of Defense deal with the situation. We should also not forget that the news cycle has become ever shorter and that the next global news event may well shift market focus.
The valuation of Saudi Aramco and timing of the initial public offering will likely be affected by how both the country and the company react to the events.
Lastly, we should not forget that the outlook for oil markets is not rosy. Trade wars and slowing economies in Europe cast a shadow on the demand picture. The IEA expects demand growth to be at 1.1 million bpd for 2019. Recent months have disappointed, with demand growth in the June data coming in at about 0.2 million bpd. Monday’s economic data from China also disappointed, which is a harbinger for worse to come on the demand front.
Conversely, the IEA expects non-OPEC supply increases tilting toward oversupply. Indeed, until Saturday the debate was about whether OPEC+ needed to increase the 1.2 million bpd production cuts in its next meeting in Vienna in December.
When the hype is over, price developments in the medium term will depend on how both Saudi Aramco and the country deal with the situation and how the supply-demand balance looks over the next year.
We can take heart from the fact that Saudi Aramco is an incredibly well-run and competent company.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Iran is an evil state that threatens everyone
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/September 16/2019
Talk during the past two decades about Iran’s plan to control the region and threaten the sovereignty of all its states has not been just an exaggeration inspired by the repetitive crises involving Tehran.
The story began in the years that followed the Iranian revolution. Taking advantage of manufactured crises, the regime built an empire of armed militias that has become the biggest of its kind in the world today. It has invested all its capabilities in these militias, and established numerous armed and trained organizations in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, as well as Afghanistan; all working under the command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), well beyond the authority of their respective governments.
During the few days that preceded Saturday’s attack on the Saudi oil-producing facility at Abqaiq, information received from Iraq indicated that three armed organizations had been planning operations against US targets inside Iraq. This reinforces the possibility that the attack against Saudi Arabia was launched from Iraq, the country that is no longer able to control the militias on its territory due to the infiltration of the IRGC. The IRGC has the upper hand in Iraq thanks to several militias that take their funding from the Iraqi government and instructions from Tehran. The same “scenario” is replicated in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen: A failed or weak centralized state, while militias control sovereign decisions in favor of Tehran.
The massive attack on the Abqaiq oil facilities does not only target Saudi Arabia, but rather the whole region and even the world; which Tehran wants to acknowledge its dominance, accept its decisions and prepare for a new phase of Iranian dominance in the region.
Should we blame ourselves for failing to work on confronting Iran, directly or by proxy, in recent years? Should we blame Washington and the rest of the world powers that have major interests in the region?
Iran effectively controls Sanaa, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut and is working on dominating the Gulf and the rest of the region.
The truth is that it has not been hard for us to read into the Iranian project since the 1980s, and its confrontation was always based on a defensive strategy. There are those who failed to understand what was happening on the ground, and got lost in believing theories that had nothing to do with the reality we live in.
Today, the story is evident and the picture is complete. Iran effectively controls Sanaa, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut and is working on dominating the Gulf and the rest of the region. The options for confronting Tehran are few because it does not operate in a direct manner, while issuing false denial statements and holding its affiliated organizations, such as the Houthis in Yemen, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, responsible. However, the situation no longer requires much to convince the region’s states of the truth that the attack on Abqaiq was orchestrated in Tehran, and is one of the battles it seeks to perpetrate.
Can the attack on Abqaiq be a result of the US’ suffocation of Iran? No, it is not the result of the economic blockade against Iran; but the opposite is true. One of the reasons behind the economic sanctions, and the rejection of the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was Iran’s insistence on implementing its project: Expanding its power and threatening the region’s states. The pro-Iran rebel armed militias in Iraq and Lebanon emerged years before the nuclear agreement and the sanctions, not vice versa.
The conclusion is that Iran is an evil state with a large project. Its ideology and ambitions resemble those of Al-Qaeda and Daesh; its danger threatens everyone. Without a united front determined to confront it, it will only expand and flourish.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed

China would be unwise to try and wait out Trump
Ellen R. Wald/Arab News/September 16/2019
If the Chinese government saw last week’s debate among Democratic Party candidates for the 2020 US presidential nomination, it should want to sign a trade deal with President Donald Trump — and quickly. China should not try and wait for a Democrat president.
For almost three hours, each of the 10 leading candidates tried to prove he or she was more progressive than the others. Each candidate was eager to demonstrate an ability to take on and oppose Trump on almost every policy issue. There was one exception: Trade talks with China.
Given multiple opportunities, none of the candidates were willing to oppose the billions of dollars-worth of tariffs Trump has imposed or is planning to impose on China. The candidates offered criticism of Trump’s negotiation style, which they frequently referred to as “erratic.” Yet, when asked repeatedly, none of the candidates would say that he or she would end the tariffs as president. In fact, Sen. Kamala Harris seemed to indicate that it would be a good idea to impose even more tariffs on China for reasons other than trade negotiations, such as to punish Beijing for environmental degradation.
The candidates attacked Trump on his temperament and what they described as indecisiveness in negotiating. Trump himself has explained multiple times that he negotiates by taking a very tough stance to start and then alternately giving and demanding as the negotiations proceed. He is very transparent about that. The Democrats deemed Trump’s changing stances on certain tariffs as indecisiveness.
Just last week, Trump delayed a huge set of tariffs from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 due to China celebrating its 70th anniversary on the former date. It seems China was pleased with Trump’s gesture because, just a couple of days later, it announced it would be exempting US-produced pork and soybeans from the latest rounds of tariffs. China relies heavily on US farm goods to feed its near-1.5 billion population. This news is particularly important for the US, as farmers feared a decrease in customers and prices. It is also good news for Trump politically because he will need support from those farmers in the 2020 election.
Last week was an example of Trump’s tactics working. He decreased tensions with China by making a generous gesture before China’s national celebration. In response, China relaxed its stance, which was a huge help to the US and to Trump. Now the two sides are back on track for negotiations.
However, the Democrats spoke at the debate about being even harsher on China. Clearly, imposing tariffs against China is a popular policy among US voters, and why wouldn’t it be? After all, Beijing has engaged in currency devaluation, intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices for years. China is also a major supplier of fentanyl and the ingredients of fentanyl, which kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. The debate last week should make it clear to everyone — including China — that the Democrats also intend to take a hard stance against Beijing. That is the one policy on which they could not oppose the president because it is just too popular, even among Democrats.
When Chinese officials heard the Democrats’ answers about tariffs last week, they should have realized that, while Trump may drive a hard bargain, he is willing to give and take in negotiations. The Democrat candidates made it clear that they intend to only take in negotiations with China. Therefore, Beijing should now discard any hope it might have to wait out the Trump presidency. Now it is time for China to negotiate in good faith — for its own sake.
There is another reason that China should fear a Democrat presidency: It is typically the world’s largest importer of oil. It produces almost none itself and imports millions of barrels per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Thus, it is highly dependent on a low oil price to keep its economy healthy. However, the Democratic candidates are proposing policies and actions that would drastically raise the price of oil.
The debate last week should make it clear to everyone — including China — that the Democrats also intend to take a hard stance against Beijing.
Almost every major Democrat candidate has called for an outright ban or serious curtailment of large segments of the US oil production industry. Sens. Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have all said they would work to ban fracking. Others want to stop new wells. Some want to end offshore drilling. These policies would lead to a drop in global oil supplies and higher oil prices. While that would be good for oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia, it would be disastrous for China.
Chinese leaders are probably annoyed that Trump was ever elected because he started this trade dispute. However, they may want to look carefully at his opponents before they hope for someone different in the White House. For China, Trump may be better than the alternative. It’s time to make a trade deal.
**Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian and author of “Saudi, Inc.” She is the president of Transversal Consulting and also teaches Middle East history and policy at Jacksonville University. Twitter: @EnergzdEconomy

Abqaiq and Khurais attacks demand a strong response
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/September 16/2019
Saturday’s attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities were a game-changer and should be met with equally robust responses. They were a serious escalation by Iran against Saudi Arabia, the US, the rule of international law, the stability of oil markets, and the health of the world economy. According to the Saudi Ministry of Energy, the attacks resulted in the temporary disruption of production in both facilities, with about 5.7 million barrels taken off the market daily. That is more than 50 percent of Saudi Arabia’s exports. In addition, about 2 billion cubic meters of daily associated gas production was also halted, depriving petrochemical companies of their main input.
There will be a disruption to oil supplies no doubt, but Saudi officials have promised to make it as short and painless to consumers as possible by releasing Aramco’s reserves to cover some of the shortages. The new Saudi minister of energy and the new Aramco chair, both appointed this month, are intent on restoring production capacity in both facilities as soon as possible.
But what if it happens again, which is very likely considering Iran’s escalations since early May? There has been a rising pattern of Iranian attacks against oil facilities and oil tankers. And, if nothing changes in Iran’s aggressive posture and the muted international response to its provocations, it is quite probable that it will attack again in the near future.
While Iran’s attacks against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and oil tankers in the Gulf have become quite brazen in recent months, Tehran has for decades targeted the Kingdom, especially its oil-producing regions. Since the revolution 40 years ago, Iran’s leaders have tried to destabilize Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. Within months of the start of the revolution in February 1979, Iran began training for and funding terrorist acts in the province, including attacks on oil and petrochemical facilities. Since then, the level of Iranian-supported violence in that region has ebbed and flowed, but has never stopped. Saudi Arabia has nevertheless been able to contain the violence.
However, the recent attacks appear to be of a different pedigree. After the Trump administration adopted its “maximum pressure” strategy, Tehran has mobilized its forces and those of its proxies to attack oil-exporting facilities in the region, especially in Saudi Arabia, as well as oil tankers and US targets.
Because Iran’s threat is global, the international community should act collectively to deter any further aggression
The twin attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais are at such a level that they should be met with new thinking about how to deal with the Iranian menace. At the regional level, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners will have to bolster their asymmetric defense capabilities. They have done a good job on upgrading their conventional and ballistic missile defenses, which is one reason Iran is not keen on challenging them in these areas. However, they need to deal with the emerging risk of drones and smaller missiles that can easily escape detection. The GCC has, over the past decades, agreed on a number of measures for closer military integration, including setting up the GCC Unified Military Command in November 2018 — a first in its 38-year history. This entity coordinates the work of all armed services and is charged with the day-to-day implementation of the GCC Joint Defense Treaty of 2000.
However, the Iranian threat is not only directed against Saudi Arabia or GCC countries, but is rather a threat to the political and economic world order, as governed by the UN Charter and international law, which bar aggression or the use of force to achieve political or economic goals. Iran clearly does not subscribe to this rules-based system, as it demonstrated recently by suggesting signing “non-aggression pacts” with selected countries, implying that others are fair game. In addition, the world economy has been teetering on the edge of a global recession; any disruption of supplies or dramatic increases in oil prices could easily push it over the edge.
Because Iran’s threat is global, as the aftermath of the Abqaiq and Khurais attacks demonstrates, the international community should act collectively to deter any further aggression. Countries that have been trying to cajole Iran and pay it off with financial benefits should, by now, realize that their approach is not working. Europe has been trying to persuade the US to extend a $15 billion line of credit for Iran to moderate its position on the nuclear deal, but those efforts have failed to change Tehran’s mindset.
Countries that have been on the sidelines should join the US-led efforts to mobilize nations to take part in safeguarding shipping in the Gulf. All trading nations, including the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, South Korea, Japan and the EU, should stand united in upholding international law and deliver a unified and unambiguous message to Iran to dissuade it from further attacks.
It is a good thing that the US has seemingly backed away from its offer for Donald Trump-Hassan Rouhani talks at the opening of the UN General Assembly next week. After the Abqaiq and Khurais attacks, it would be pointless to hold such a meeting without securing Iran’s agreement on some ground rules, something the GCC has been trying to do for some time. At any rate, high-level talks rarely succeed if they are not preceded by solid agreements on detailed frameworks negotiated by technical teams and ministers.
This week, Washington is hosting two important meetings under the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) rubric. The first, on Tuesday, focuses on MESA’s energy pillar, and the second on the political and security pillars. The attacks against Saudi Arabia’s oil installations should catapult MESA into action immediately. The MESA partners should turn words into deeds in all these pillars to send a message that the core alliance (the US, GCC member states, Jordan, and any others wishing to join) is ready to deliver on its promises. More nations will surely follow.
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1

Netanyahu’s annexation plan far more than an election ploy
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/September 16/2019
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is moving quickly to alter the political reality in Palestine, and is facing little or no resistance. Last week, Netanyahu declared his intention to annex swathes of Palestinian land adjacent to the Jordan River, an area that covers 2,400 square kilometers, or nearly a third of the West Bank. That region, which extends from Bisan in the north to Jericho in the south, is considered to be Palestine’s food basket, as it accounts for an estimated 60 percent of vegetables that are produced in the West Bank.
While Israel has already colonized nearly 88 percent of the entire Palestinian Ghoor (Jordan Valley), dividing it between illegal agricultural settlements and military zones, it was always assumed that the militarily occupied region would be included within the borders of a future Palestinian state.
Netanyahu’s announcement has been linked to Israel’s general elections on Tuesday. The Israeli leader is desperate, as he is facing “unprecedented alliances” that are all closing in on unseating him from his political throne. But this cannot be all. Not even the power-hungry Netanyahu would alter the political and territorial landscape of Israel and Palestine indefinitely in exchange for a few votes. Indeed, talk of annexation has been afoot for years and has long preceded these elections, as well as the previous ones in April.
A sense of euphoria has been felt among Israel’s right-wing officials since the advent of Donald Trump to the White House. The excitement was not directly linked to Trump but to his Middle East team of like-minded pro-Israel US officials whose support for Tel Aviv is predicated not just on personal interests, but religious and ideological beliefs too.
White House senior adviser Jared Kushner selected his team very carefully — Jason Greenblatt as special envoy for Middle East peace, David Friedman as ambassador to Israel, and layers of other second-tier officials whose mission was never aimed at resolving conflict or brokering peace, but supervising a process in which Israel finalizes its colonization of Palestine unhindered. Kushner’s masterstroke is epitomized in the way he presented his objectives as part of a political process, later named the “deal of the century.”
In all fairness, Kushner’s team hardly labored, or even pretended to be, peacemakers, especially as they oversaw the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and of the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory. Indeed, none of these officials tried to hide their true motives. Just examine statements made by the just-resigned Greenblatt where he refused to name illegal Jewish settlements as such, but as “neighborhoods and cities,” and Friedman’s outright support for the annexation of parts of the West Bank, and much more.
The US political discourse seemed in complete alignment with that of Israel’s right-wing parties. When extremist politicians like Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked began floating the idea of annexing most or all of the West Bank, they no longer sounded like marginal and opportunistic voices vying for attention. Rather, they were at the center of Israeli politics, knowing full well that Washington no longer had a problem with Israel’s unilateral action.
Israeli leaders are facing little or no hindrance as they finalize their complete colonization of all Palestinian land
It could be argued, then, that Netanyahu was merely catching up as the center of gravity within his right-wing coalition was slipping away to younger, more daring politicians. In fact, Israel as a whole was changing. With the Labor Party becoming almost entirely irrelevant, the center’s political ideology moved further to the right, simply because supporting an independent Palestinian state has become a form of political suicide in Israel.
Therefore, Netanyahu’s call for the annexation of Palestinian land east of the Jordan River must not be understood in isolation and only within the limited context of the Israeli elections. Israel is now set to annex large parts of the West Bank that it deems strategic. This is most likely to include all illegal settlement blocks and the Jordan Valley too.
In fact, Netanyahu said last week that he was ready to annex the Jordan Valley region even before the election date, but was blocked by the attorney general’s office. Netanyahu would not have taken such a decision if it represented a political risk or if it faced a pushback from Washington. It is, then, sadly only a matter of time.
Suspiciously absent in all of this is the Palestinian Authority (PA), the Arab League, the EU and, of course, the UN and its many outlets and courts. Aside from a few shy statements — like that of UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric, decrying that “unilateral actions are not helpful in the peace process” — Israeli leaders are facing little or no hindrance as they finalize their complete colonization of all Palestinian land.
Unable to stage any kind of meaningful resistance against Israel, the Palestinian leadership is pathetically insisting on utilizing old terminology. The official Palestinian response to Netanyahu’s annexation pledge, as communicated by Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh, only underscored the PA’s political bankruptcy. “Netanyahu is the chief destroyer of the peace process,” Shtayyeh said, warning that annexing parts of the West Bank would have negative consequences.
For his part, PA leader Mahmoud Abbas resorted, once more, to empty threats. Abbas said in a statement: “All agreements and their resulting obligations would end if the Israeli side annexes the Jordan Valley, the northern Dead Sea, and any part of the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967.”
Neither Abbas nor Shtayyeh seem troubled by the fact that a “peace process” does not exist, and that Israel has already violated all agreements.
While the PA is desperately hanging on to any reason to justify its continued existence, Netanyahu, with the full support of Washington, is moving forward with annexing the West Bank, thus making apartheid an official and undisputed reality.
The Palestinian leadership must understand that the nature of the conflict is now changing. Conventional methods and empty statements will not slow the Israeli push for annexation or Tel Aviv’s determination to expand its apartheid to all of Palestine. If Palestinians continue to ignore this reality altogether, Israel will continue to single-handedly shape the destiny of Palestine and its people.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of Palestine Chronicle. His latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London). Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine Studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter: @RamzyBaroud

Trump should prioritize US allies over new Iran deal
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 16/2019
The author of “The Art of the Deal” is said to be so desperate for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to talk to him at the UN General Assembly that he has reportedly been discussing showering Tehran with billions of dollars-worth of sanctions relief. This dumbfounding revelation is apparently what triggered the acrimonious departure from the Donald Trump administration of National Security Adviser John Bolton, the architect of efforts to ratchet up pressure against Iran.
A Rouhani adviser hailed Bolton’s departure as a “defeat of America’s maximum pressure strategy.” Trump, meanwhile, wistfully opines to journalists that “Iran wants to meet.” World leaders are now miserably familiar with Trump’s one-trick-pony negotiating style: In public threatening the “official end of Iran,” while behind the scenes repeatedly pleading for the ayatollahs to meet with him. Trump scarcely grasps that, even if he meets Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, they are glorified diplomats. It is, of course, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Gen. Qassem Soleimani calling the shots from the background.
Although mid-ranking US officials have speculated about expanding sanctions against the allies of Hezbollah, Trump has conspicuously not committed himself to compelling Iran to halt its sponsorship of vast transnational paramilitary forces that are complicit in war crimes, sectarian cleansing, and the destabilization of Arab nations. Having undermined America’s reputation for honoring agreements by tearing up the 2015 nuclear deal — largely because it bore his predecessor’s signature — Trump now suggests that Iran must simply halt its nuclear program, i.e., a return to the status quo from the start of his presidency.
Yet Iran has already fired up a new generation of IR-6 centrifuges, which are 10 times faster than earlier models and capable of enriching uranium to the 90 percent purity required for a nuclear weapon. By allowing Tehran to walk away from its commitments, the Trump administration has inadvertently facilitated its path toward nuclear supremacy. Although Israel could resort to airstrikes, it may lack the firepower required to destroy reactors built deep underground in anticipation of such pre-emptive strikes.
Trump’s glitzy Korea summits sought to showcase the president as a globe-straddling dealmaker. Instead they gave Kim Jong Un the exposure and legitimacy he craved, without committing him to substantive concessions. While North Korea’s blood-drenched dictator today tests ballistic missiles and pursues his nuclear program, Trump blindly proclaims their “beautiful relationship.” Such incompetent diplomacy in Iran’s case would simply incentivize Tehran to intensify its nuclear program and clandestine terrorist activities, while escaping international isolation.
If Tehran does receive the proposed $15 billion in sanctions relief, it will be prioritized for the bankrolling of paramilitary terrorism.
If Tehran does receive the proposed $15 billion in sanctions relief, it will be prioritized for the bankrolling of paramilitary terrorism, exactly as billions of dollars of unfrozen funds were after 2015. This would represent a disgraceful betrayal of America’s Middle Eastern allies.
Tehran boasts that it exercises de facto control over four Arab states, where it is stockpiling rocket arsenals with ranges of up to 700 kilometers. The world has largely ignored hundreds of drone and missile strikes from Iraq and Yemen against Saudi airports and civilian targets, including attacks against Aramco oil facilities this weekend. Why don’t the repeated targeting of tankers and oil infrastructure and threats to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz trigger urgent alarm bells about the threat posed by Iranian aggression to the global economy and energy security?
If Israel, Iran and additional states are soon capable of threatening one another with mutually assured destruction, tiny nations like Lebanon face annihilation. The terrorist mullahs of Tehran, under their nuclear shield, would enjoy region-wide impunity for whatever paramilitary adventures Soleimani’s fevered imagination chooses to embark on. A nuclearized Iran could decorate Lebanon and Iraq’s borders with forests of missile launch sites, confident that nobody would dare to challenge it.
What of Trump’s fabled deal-making genius? He promised the “deal of the century” for Palestine and then casually surrendered Jerusalem and the occupied Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week vowed to devour much of the West Bank, confident of US acquiescence. Trump, meanwhile, was hours away from hosting Taliban terrorists as guests of honor at Camp David — coinciding with America commemorating the 9/11 attacks that were planned on Afghan soil under Mullah Omar’s patronage. The Taliban dictates its demands with increasing assertiveness, knowing that Trump, who appears incapable of keeping his negotiating cards close to his chest, is desperate to cut and run from Afghanistan.
With trade wars pitching the global economy into recession, the White House is anxious to tout policies that have not been utter train wrecks ahead of Trump’s 2020 re-election bid. Hence the desperation for any deal the administration could beg or bribe Tehran to sign up to; irrespective of whether this fundamentally destabilizes the Middle East, transfers billions of dollars into the pockets of terrorist proxies, or the ensuing chaos paves the way for future 9/11s and new generations of terrorism.
The Islamic Republic must be forced to acknowledge that the pursuit of nuclear weapons, terrorism and regional militancy will not reinforce its overseas muscle, but rather will guarantee its demise. Genuine negotiations usually require years of tenacious efforts and careful diplomacy, and the Iranian regime is notorious for its fierce negotiating style. Priding himself on personally leading talks, with little grasp of the labyrinthine complexities and craving the cheap gratification of immediate results, Trump would be woefully, terrifyingly, out of his depth.
Barack Obama’s flawed 2015 deal at least represented a sincere effort to address the world’s foremost proliferation threat. The Trump administration’s calamitous overseas machinations aspire neither to international peace nor US security, instead catering solely to the ego and personal agenda of one man, who — if there is any justice in the world — will be soundly defeated in November 2020.
The latest attacks by Iranian proxies against Saudi Arabia and other targets demonstrate that, when the world fails to stand strong against pariah states, they are emboldened to escalate their terrorist aggression. Instead of pursuing a new “love story” with the theocrats of Tehran, America should prioritize the security of its real Middle Eastern allies; thereby maximizing the stability of the global economy and the collective security of the international community.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.