English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Then Jesus said to them again, “I am going away, and you will seek Me, and will die in your sin. Where I go you cannot come
John08/21-27Then Jesus said to them again, “I am going away, and you will seek Me, and will die in your sin. Where I go you cannot come.” So the Jews said, “Will He kill Himself, because He says, ‘Where I go you cannot come’?” And He said to them, “You are from beneath; I am from above. You are of this world; I am not of this world. herefore I said to you that you will die in your sins; for if you do not believe that I am He, you will die in your sins.” Then they said to Him, “Who are You?”And Jesus said to them, “Just what I have been saying to you from the beginning. I have many things to say and to judge concerning you, but He who sent Me is true; and I speak to the world those things which I heard from Him.”They did not understand that He spoke to them of the Father.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2020

 Fire Erupts in Beirut Souks Building near Port, Cause Unclear
Unbelievable': Another Fire in Beirut Unnerves Shattered Residents
Aoun Urges 'Understanding' as Presidency Hits Back at PSP Bloc
Aoun Resumes Talks with Parliamentary Blocs over Cabinet Formation
Reports: Adib May Step Down, to Meet Aoun Wednesday
Report: AMAL, Hizbullah Insist on Retaining Finance Portfolio
Israel Fires Flare Bombs over Hounin Valley
Beirut Bar Association Chief Urges Probe into Port Blaze
Beirut in Race to Save Heritage before Rain Returns
UNRWA Commisioner-General on Official Visit to Lebanon
Pompeo Says Hezbollah Weapons Risk Torpedoing French Efforts in Lebanon
Hezbollah to Stay In Syria, Despite Bassil’s Assurances
France Says Lebanese Political Forces Must Form Govt. without Delay
Former Ghosn Aide Greg Kelly Pleads not Guilty as Trial Opens
The Carlos Ghosn Saga: Key Dates

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2020

The peace treaties between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel are signed
Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalization deal has created a new Middle East
What does the Abraham Accords mean for Trump politically?
Trump Hails 'Dawn of New Middle East' as Israel, UAE, Bahrain Sign Historic Pacts
Trump Says Peace Deals Close between Israel and '5 or 6' Other Nations
Iran in the shadow of the peace deal: Missile fire on Israel from Gaza
Three Western Targets in Iraq Attacked in 24 Hours
Iraq PM Appoints New Batch of Officials to Senior Positions
Greek Minister: Force May Be Used to Move Homeless Migrants
Israeli Opposition Chief: Govt Imposed 2nd Lockdown Because It's 'Completely Lost'
Turkey's Arrest of Lawyers Draws International Criticism
Kremlin Critic Navalny Posts Photo from Hospital, Says he Can Breathe Independently
Hong Kong: 1.8m Tested in Massive Testing Program
India Virus Cases Near 5 Million
Analysis: With Abe's Exit, Seoul Seeks to Mend Japan Ties
Albanians Want Children Returned from Refugee Camps in Syria
US Issues Sweeping New Travel Warning for China, Hong Kong
UN: Boat Capsizes Near Libya, at Least 24 Migrants Drowned

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/2020

France Should Stand with Freedom, Not Tehran/Michael R. Pompeo, USA Secretary Of State/Le Figaro/September 14/2
Black September,' Then And Now/Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI/September 15/2020
The 3 Regional Winds Blowing over the Middle East/Eyad Abu Shakra//Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2020
It’s Been a Bad Year to Be a Tourist Magnet/Justin Fox/Bloomberg/September, 15/2020
The Coronavirus is Mutating, and that’s Fine (So Far)/Edward Holmes/The New York Times/September, 15/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2020

Fire Erupts in Beirut Souks Building near Port, Cause Unclear
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 15/2020
A fire broke out on Tuesday in a department store under construction in downtown Beirut, adding to the crisis-hit country’s woes already reeling from an economic crisis, a colossal explosion at its port and an outbreak of coronavirus. The building lies near the city's port where an explosion last month killed nearly 200, wounded thousands and left the city's residents traumatized. It was not immediately clear what caused the fire in the building that was the work of late Iraq-born British architect Zaha Hadid. The building was still under construction and sits on the main road that passes by the port. A Civil Defense official said they extinguished the fire, adding that an investigation will be opened. There were no immediate reports of injuries. It was the third fire in the area within a week following two recent fires at the port of Beirut, including a huge one on Thursday that raised panic among residents. Another blaze earlier last week was extinguished quickly. The causes of those fires are unclear. Beirut's residents are still shaken by the fire that led to a massive blast on Aug. 4, killing nearly 200, injuring 6,500 and causing damage worth billions of dollars. The explosion of nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate stored at the port for six years also left a quarter of a million people homeless. The cause of the explosion and the fire that led to it are still under investigation. The blast led to the government's resignation six days later. Lebanon is gripped by an unprecedented economic crisis and financial collapse, blamed on decades of mismanagement and corruption by an entrenched political class. Last month's blast is seen as the culmination of leaders unable to manage the country's affairs or protect its people. So far, authorities have been unable to provide answers about the explosion, and there has been no accountability for it.

Unbelievable': Another Fire in Beirut Unnerves Shattered Residents
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
A fire erupted in a landmark building in Beirut's commercial district on Tuesday, the second blaze this month to send shudders through a capital still in shock after a massive port blast in August ripped through the Mediterranean city. There were no immediate reports of casualties and the blaze was quickly extinguished, but it left residents exasperated in a nation that has been hammered by a deep economic crisis and which is waiting for its politicians to form a new government. "It's terrible. It's unbelievable," said Joe Sayegh, 48, who had been on a jog through the city before coming to the scene. "Every day we have a problem."Fire trucks quickly doused the flames that charred a corner of the futuristic building designed by the practice set up by the late Zaha Hadid, the renowned British-Iraqi architect. The building near the seafront which has been under construction for years and its curved lines have become a prominent feature of the central commercial area rebuilt from the 1975-1990 civil war. During the reconstruction, skyscrapers designed by international architects have gone up and historical Ottoman-era buildings have been renovated. But protests during an economic crisis that was caused by a mountain of debt had already driven many businesses out of the city center and left many buildings scarred, before the Aug. 4 port blast ruined another swathe of the capital.The government resigned after the port blast, which was blamed on highly explosive ammonium nitrate kept in poor storage conditions for years. This month, a big port fire flared up among the ruined warehouses, adding to the devastation. France is pressing Lebanon to form a new government to tackle endemic corruption and implement reforms to unlock aid. But many Lebanese remain skeptical that Lebanon's political elite can chart a new course. "With these people, if they are the same people, nothing will change," Sayegh said.

Aoun Urges 'Understanding' as Presidency Hits Back at PSP Bloc
Naharnet/September 15/2020
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday called for “understanding” instead of “intransigence,” in a tweet marking the International Day of Democracy. “On the International Day of Democracy, let us all remember that resolving problems can only happen through understanding and not through intransigence and stubbornness, or else everyone will reap great failure and loss,” the president said. The Presidency’s press office had earlier issued a statement commenting on the Democratic Gathering bloc’s boycott of Aoun’s consultations with parliamentary blocs at the Baabda Palace.
“The statement issued yesterday by the Democratic Gathering would not have deserved a response had it not contained a host of deliberate fallacies aimed at harming a rescue step that the President made,” the press office said. “The president would not have invited the heads of parliamentary blocs to consultations had he not been aware of the crisis that might arise should the dispute over several points related to the formation of the government continue, in a manner that would block the government’s formation and plunge the country into a dangerous situation,” the office added. “As for the remarks about breaching the Taef Accord, let the MPs of the Gathering pinpoint to us the text that prohibits the country’s president from consulting with parliamentary blocs when the situations in the country necessitate that,” the office went on to say in its statement.

Aoun Resumes Talks with Parliamentary Blocs over Cabinet Formation
Naharnet/September 15/2020
President Michel Aoun resumed consultations on Tuesday with representatives of the country's parliamentary blocs over the formation of the cabinet, a process which hit snags because of controversy over the principle of rotation of ministries and the finance ministry portfolio. On Monday, Aoun kicked off two-day consultations after a key meeting with Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib. Adib had met Aoun on talks on forming a new government, but did not submit proposals for a cabinet despite a looming French-imposed deadline. Aoun Tuesday met with ex-PM and head of the Independent Center bloc MP Najib Miqati, head of the Mountain Guarantee MP Talal Arsaln, head of the Armenian MPs Agop Pakradonian and Loyalty to the Resistance head MP Mohammed Raad. He met Monday with Jebran Bassil of the Strong Lebanon bloc, Samir al-Jisr of the al-Mustaqbal bloc, Faisal Karami of the Consultative Gathering bloc, Farid al-Khazen of the National Bloc and Asaad Hardan of the Social National bloc. Despite reports that the President and PM had agreed each to hold talks with certain blocs, LBCI television said no reports emerged that Adib held meetings with any of the lawmakers. The insistence of the Shiite duo of AMAL Movement and Hizbullah on retaining hold of the Finance Ministry, and the principle of rotation of portfolios are the major hurdles.

Reports: Adib May Step Down, to Meet Aoun Wednesday
Naharnet/September 15/2020
Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib might step down from the mission of forming a new government should the deadlock linked to the finance ministerial portfolio continue, media reports said on Tuesday. “Adib may step down after heading to the Baabda Palace tomorrow,” al-Jadeed TV reported.
LBCI television said that “the French initiative has been suspended and Adib might step down after consulting with the President.”Sources close to the PM-designate meanwhile told LBCI that “the choice of stepping down is one of the serious options.” “Adib is not clinging to his designation and he does not want to defy any party, but he also does not want to renounce his principles nor to waste more time,” the sources added. The privately-owned Akhbar al-Yawm news agency meanwhile said that Adib will visit Baabda on Wednesday to be briefed by President Michel Aoun on “the outcome of the consultations that he carried out regarding the governmental file.”“As the deadline to form the government was extended to the weekend, Thursday will reportedly be crucial as to whether Adib will step down or a cabinet line-up will be announced,” the agency added.

Report: AMAL, Hizbullah Insist on Retaining Finance Portfolio
Naharnet/September 15/2020
MP Mohammed Raad told President Michel Aoun during the cabinet consultations at Baabda that the "Shiite duo" insist on retaining the finance portfolio and on naming their own ministers in the upcoming cabinet, LBCI television reported on Tuesday. LBCI said Speaker Nabih Berri set a "norm" allocating the finance ministry for the Shiite community. The finance ministry has been headed by Berri's AMAL movement representative since 2014. LBCI also reported recent “intensive” consultations at the highest levels between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Shiite duo regarding the formation of the cabinet.

Israel Fires Flare Bombs over Hounin Valley
Naharnet/September 15/2020
The Israeli army fired flare bombs at dawn over Lebanon’s southern border, the state-run National News Agency reported on Tuesday. NNA said Israel fired six flare bombs over the Hounin Valley in the district of Marjayoun. Israel violates Lebanon’s sovereignty several times a day infiltrating Lebanon by sea, land and air. For generations, Israel is still technically at war with Lebanon. It deems the Iran-backed Hizbullah party as the biggest threat across its northern border.

Beirut Bar Association Chief Urges Probe into Port Blaze
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
Beirut Bar Association chief Melhem Khalaf called on a judge investigating an explosion at the Lebanese capital's port to also inquire into a "worrying" port blaze that could have compromised evidence. Security agencies are looking into what caused the huge fire that broke out on Thursday at the port, the site of a massive blast on August 4 that killed at least 190 people and ravaged swathes of the city. Last week's blaze, which torched a warehouse containing vital food aid, caused a storm of speculation on social media from experts and activists over the possibility that it was sparked deliberately to tamper with evidence at the explosion site. A probe into the blast was launched by Lebanese authorities in the wake of the disaster caused by the explosion of tons of ammonium nitrate left for years at the port, of which officials had long been aware. Judicial Investigator Judge Fadi Sawan, who is leading the Beirut blast probe, dismissed the possibility that the fire was set to destroy evidence because it occurred outside an area designated by the judiciary as the zone of investigations into the explosion, a judicial source told AFP. But Khalaf said he was still alarmed by the incident, especially as Thursday's blaze came only two days after a smaller fire had broken out at the port. "Preserving the (blast) crime scene was the first thing we asked" of the probe, Khalaf told AFP on Monday. "Investigative judge (Sawwan) should take over and carry on with investigations because... what happened is unacceptable and worrying."The cause of last week's massive fire remains unclear, but outgoing minister of public works and transport, Michel Najjar, has said that welding works could have sparked the blaze in the port's duty free zone. A security official told AFP that investigators were also considering the possibility Thursday's port fire was sparked deliberately as part of an insurance fraud scheme, but they have yet to find any evidence. A judicial source said investigators have yet to establish a link between the port fire and the August 4 explosion and are treating the two cases separately.But forensic expert Omar Nashabe said last week's fire should not be dismissed as irrelevant to blast investigations. Sawwan should not overlook the "hypothesis that the cases are linked," he told AFP, calling the timing and setting of last week's fire "suspicious." "The similarities in the two incidents... require that judge Fadi Sawwan links the two cases together," he added.

Beirut in Race to Save Heritage before Rain Returns
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
Beirut has only "days" left to preserve damaged heritage buildings before the rain finishes off the destruction caused by the August 4 port blast, Lebanon's antiquities chief warned Tuesday. "There are 100 historical buildings that need covering before the rain," said Sarkis Khoury, head of the Lebanese Directorate General of Antiquities. "There are 45 buildings that require total shoring up lest they collapse, and another 55 need partial shoring up," he told AFP. He was speaking after a meeting with the heads of three international heritage organizations, who were visiting Beirut to muster support for the Lebanese capital. One of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history, originating from a stock of ammonium nitrate at the Beirut port, ripped through the city and gutted some of its most historical streets six weeks ago. Lebanon was already experiencing a deep social, economic and political crisis when the explosion -- which left more than 190 people dead and wounded thousands -- occurred. Foreign powers, international organisations and Lebanese volunteers have taken the lead in rescue efforts, filling the vacuum left by a government that has no body's trust and is blamed by many Lebanese for the blast. "We're playing against time, we're talking about days, weeks at most, to do all this work. It's really going to be very difficult," said Khoury. Valéry Freland, the head of the International Alliance for the Protection of Cultural Heritage in Conflict Areas (ALIPH), signed a deal for an initial package of $5 million to support protection efforts.
'Architectural DNA'
"We need to work fast to protect these historical buildings because the rainy season is just around the corner," he said during the meeting, held in the Sursock Museum. Khoury said he estimated around $300 million would be needed for the restoration of Beirut's heritage. The Sursock Museum lies in one of the areas that sustained serious damage from the blast. Its director, Zeina Arida, said that a preliminary estimate put the cost of restoring the museum and its collections at around $3 million. She said that out of 180 works exhibited on the most affected floors of the museum, 50 of them had been damaged, of which eight severely. Edouard Bitar, the president of the Live Love Lebanon civil society group, which has played a key role in the mass volunteering effort since the blast, said some logistical issues were also complicating preservation work. "We're facing a problem today, which is that we have no lime mortar," he said.
"All heritage houses are made out of sandstone, and sandstone needs lime mortar, which doesn't exist in Lebanon." He said this lime mortar needed to be imported from France or Italy and stressed that help was needed from construction giants such as a Lafarge and Saint-Gobain to bring the material as quickly as possible at an affordable price. "If we don't fix these houses with lime, the restoration will be botched and our entire architectural DNA will be spoiled," Bitar said.

UNRWA Commisioner-General on Official Visit to Lebanon
Naharnet/September 15/2020
The Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), Philippe Lazzarini, on Monday began his first official visit to Lebanon since he assumed his post on March 18, UNRWA said on Tuesday. Accompanied by the Director of UNRWA Affairs in Lebanon, Claudio Cordone, Lazzarini’s visit started at the Siblin Training Center where he engaged with young Palestine refugee students about their aspirations and their concerns. He also visited the building that was refurbished to accommodate Palestine refugees in need of isolation because of COVID-19. The Commissioner-General then visited the isolation center and the UNRWA clinic in al-Buss camp, where he was briefed on the health services that Palestine refugees continued to receive under new measures and procedures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The visit included the recycling site, the sea wall and the damaged homes in Rashidieh camp, where Lazzarini met with a group of sanitation laborers to thank them for working alongside frontline staff under the current difficult conditions to help raise the level of safety and hygiene for their communities. “Coming back to Beirut in my new role but after the shock of last month’s explosion is very compelling,” said the Commissioner-General. “The time I spent with UNRWA colleagues, with people who live in Palestine refugee camps and with representatives of the Popular Committee and the Camp Improvement complemented my knowledge of the complex situation of Palestine refugees in Lebanon.”As all UNRWA school children have started going back to learning across the region this month, Lazzarini met the school parliamentarians in Tyre area to listen to their views on issues related to education and their concerns about the limited prospects that await them after they graduate. “Keeping young people motivated and helping them believe in their future is key to the stability of any society,” said the Commissioner-General. “Giving young Palestine refugees education and skills is at the center of our programs. It is crucial to help them be productive agents in their community and to support their access to the labor market.”Lazzarini will also hold meeting with Lebanese and Palestinian officials in the coming days to discuss issues related to Palestine refugees and the work of UNRWA in Lebanon.

Pompeo Says Hezbollah Weapons Risk Torpedoing French Efforts in Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday warned France that its efforts to resolve the crisis in Lebanon would be in vain without immediately tackling the issue of Iran-backed Hezbollah’s weaponry. President Emmanuel Macron has spearheaded international efforts to set Lebanon on a new course after decades of corrupt rule led to its deepest crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. But unlike Washington, which deems the heavily armed and politically powerful movement a terrorist group, Paris says its elected arm has a legitimate political role. The United States last week expanded its sanctions related to Lebanon by blacklisting two former government ministers it accused of enabling Hezbollah. That has raised questions as to how much the US and France are coordinating as Lebanon’s factional rivalries struggle to form a new government.
“The United States has assumed its responsibility and we will stop Iran buying Chinese tanks and Russian air defense systems and then selling weapons to Hezbollah (and) torpedoing President Macron’s efforts in Lebanon,” Pompeo told France Inter radio. “You can’t allow Iran to have more money, power and arms and at same time try to disconnect Hezbollah from the disasters it provoked in Lebanon.” Hezbollah and its Shiite ally Amal held ministerial posts in the last government, including the health and finance ministries. Macron said on Sept. 1, during a visit a month after a devastating Beirut port blast, that Lebanese politicians agreed to form a cabinet by Sept. 15, an ambitious timeline given it usually takes months due to blocs bickering over shares. The government formation efforts have already hit a snag as Amal has been demanding that the finance portfolio be retained by a Shiite official.
French officials have said the priority is to put in place a government that could implement reforms quickly, but the matter of Hezbollah’s weapons was not an immediate issue. French daily newspaper Le Figaro reported in August that Macron had met Mohammed Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, and told him that the group should disassociate itself from Iran and remove its forces from neighboring Syria. The French presidency did not deny the meeting, which would be a first between a French leader and a member of the group. “It’s a doubled-edged sword for Macron. Hezbollah is part of the very governance system that needs changing and I’m not sure you can deal with political Hezbollah without handling armed Hezbollah,” said a French diplomatic source.
 

Hezbollah to Stay In Syria, Despite Bassil’s Assurances
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil’s announcement that Hezbollah had begun to think about returning from Syria seems to be drifted from the current reality. Bassil’s call on the Lebanese to embrace and support Hezbollah’s decision was not met by any official statement by the party’s leadership in this regard. On the contrary, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had confirmed, four months ago, that his party would not withdraw from Syria as a result of the Israeli airstrikes. The FPM chief has pointed on more than one occasion to Hezbollah’s military engagement outside the Lebanese borders, declaring his rejection to this matter. However, he explicitly announced on Sunday that the party was thinking of returning to the Lebanese interior. His statements drew local and foreign attention. While officials in Hezbollah declined to comment, sources close to the party said that there was “nothing serious and new that needs to be announced regarding the presence in Syria.” “The party’s mission there mainly falls within the framework of carrying out tasks, as additional groups and members from Lebanon are heading towards the Syrian interior when there is a task that must be carried out in a certain region,” the sources revealed. They continued: “Over the past two years, the party’s role in Syria has changed a lot with the decline in combat operations. As for the withdrawal, it is linked to the withdrawal of all foreign fighting forces, and this is supposed to happen within two years.”
The party refuses to set a date for its departure from Syria. In earlier statements, Nasrallah said the withdrawal would come upon a request by the Syrian leadership. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Rami Abdel-Rahman noted that the current mission of Hezbollah in Syria was to compensate for the inability of the regime forces to control all of the Syrian territories. “Whenever the Iranian decision to remove Hezbollah from Syria is taken, the withdrawal will take place. We do not see any signs in this direction now, especially in light of Iran’s efforts to recruit more fighters,” he said. In July 2020, Nasrallah announced that his party had reduced its forces in Syria, pointing to the “diminishing intensity of fighting on the Syrian land.”Shortly after, he stressed that Hezbollah’s fighters would remain in all places where they had previously been deployed. The head of the Middle East and Gulf Center for Military Analysis - Inegma, Riad Kahwaji, referred to information about withdrawals carried out by Hezbollah from Syria, stating that the number of its fighters there has decreased by 50 percent. “There are clear efforts being made to reduce the tension between Israel and Iran, especially on the Syrian arena. Therefore, the party finds an interest in reducing its presence there, especially after its bases have become exposed throughout the Syrian soil,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

France Says Lebanese Political Forces Must Form Govt. without Delay
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
France’s foreign ministry said on Monday that all Lebanese political forces need to come good on their promise to quickly put in place a government. In response to a question on whether Paris would accept a delay in creating a government, spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll said Lebanese political parties had been reminded repeatedly of the need to create a government quickly to be able to implement essential reforms. “All Lebanese political forces have endorsed this goal. It is up to them to translate this commitment into action without delay. It is their responsibility,” she said. A deadline agreed with France expires on Tuesday.Earlier on Monday, Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib said he had met President Michel Aoun for more consultations, raising doubts that he could form his cabinet by France’s deadline. Some worry that even outside pressure cannot force reform on politicians, for whom reform means an end to power and perhaps eventual accountability. Lebanon’s ruling class, in power since the end of the civil war in 1990, has run the tiny country and its population into the ground. Heading a sectarian system that encourages corruption over governing, the elite have enriched themselves while investing little on infrastructure, failing to build a productive economy and pushing it to the verge of bankruptcy. Anger over corruption and mismanagement has come to a peak after the giant Aug. 4 explosion at Beirut’s port, caused by the detonation of nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate that politicians allowed to sit there for years. Nearly 200 people were killed and tens of thousands of homes were damaged.

Former Ghosn Aide Greg Kelly Pleads not Guilty as Trial Opens
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
Greg Kelly, a former aide to ex-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn, pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to a charge of financial misconduct as the trial against him began in Tokyo. Ghosn is now at large as an international fugitive after jumping bail and fleeing Japan for Lebanon last year. That has left Kelly the only person facing trial in the lengthy, rollercoaster saga involving Ghosn. Kelly entered a plea of not guilty Tuesday to the single charge he faces -- conspiring to under-report tens of millions of dollars in pay that Ghosn was allegedly promised after his retirement. "I deny the allegations. I was not involved in a criminal conspiracy," Kelly said. He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, arguing -- as does Ghosn -- that no final agreement had been made on any post-retirement pay and therefore no disclosure was legally required. Kelly, who turned 64 on Tuesday, entered the court dressed in a dark suit and red tie and wearing a surgical mask. He declined to speak to media gathered outside for the trial. Ghosn's arrest in the Japanese capital in November 2018 on financial misconduct charges made headlines worldwide and kicked off an astonishing fall from grace for a man once hailed as a corporate saviour for rescuing Nissan from the brink of bankruptcy. But overshadowed by his detention was the arrest that same day of Kelly, who has been out on bail in Tokyo since late December 2018. The trial, expected to last around 10 months, centres around one question fraught with technicalities: did Kelly and Nissan between 2010 and 2018 illegally conceal payments of around 9.2 billion yen ($87 million at today's rates) promised to Ghosn on retirement? Nissan, which is on trial alongside Kelly, says yes, and pleaded guilty to the charge against it on Tuesday. But Kelly, who faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted, has insisted on his innocence since day one.
"I didn't do anything wrong," he told AFP in an interview in early September."Carlos Ghosn never got paid anything and he wasn't promised anything," he insisted.
- Defence 'confident' -
Nissan and Japanese prosecutors disagree, arguing they have evidence that these future payments were pledged to Ghosn, and therefore should have been disclosed in the firm's financial filings as required by Japanese law. Prosecutors have amassed a vast trove of documents, only a small portion of which the defence have been given so far, according to Kelly's lawyers. Despite that, his team agreed to move to trial, arguing they had "no choice", with Kelly prevented from leaving the country and separated from his family while he waits for his case to go to court. Kelly's legal team say they are confident he can be acquitted -- despite the track record of Japan's prosecutors, who win over 99 percent of the criminal cases they bring to court. But they argue they have been put at a strong disadvantage by the court's refusal to allow overseas witnesses to testify by videoconference. Despite the obstacles, Kelly's Japanese lawyer Yoichi Kitamura said he is "confident we can win the case". Nissan has been tight-lipped about the trial, with a source close to the firm's leadership saying there was concern about negative media attention. One of the trial's key witnesses will be Hari Nada, Kelly's former colleague, who obtained whistleblower status from prosecutors in exchange for his cooperation. Former CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who was forced out over financial improprieties discovered by an internal investigation in the wake of the Ghosn scandal, will also give testimony. The fact that he was able to resign without facing prosecution has been cited by Ghosn as evidence of what he claims is a biased justice system. The former auto chief has defended his decision to flee Japan by claiming he would not have received a fair trial.

The Carlos Ghosn Saga: Key Dates
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
It was the arrest heard around the world: when Japanese prosecutors detained then-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn in November 2018, it made global headlines, as did his audacious escape almost a year later. As his former aide Greg Kelly, arrested that same night in Tokyo, goes on trial, here are some of the key dates in a rollercoaster saga that has gripped the business world:
- November 2018: arrests, firings -
Japanese prosecutors arrest Ghosn and Kelly after they arrive separately on private planes in Tokyo on November 19. They are accused of financial misconduct for an alleged scheme to under-report the salary of Ghosn, then-Nissan chief and head of an alliance grouping Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors.The pair deny wrongdoing. Ghosn is swiftly removed from his roles at all three firms.
- December 2018: new allegations -
On December 10 Japanese prosecutors formally charge Ghosn and Kelly with under-reporting his salary between 2010 and 2015. They are immediately rearrested on allegations of further under-reporting between 2015-2018.
On December 21, Ghosn is arrested on fresh allegations that he transferred losses from personal financial investments to Nissan. His detention is extended.
Kelly wins bail on December 25 on the condition he stays in Japan.
- March 2019: Ghosn bail approved -
Ghosn attends his first court hearing on January, insisting the accusations against him are "meritless and unsubstantiated". His bail request is denied for a first time, and on January 11 two new charges of financial misconduct are filed against him.
On January 31, Ghosn tells AFP from prison that his detention would "not be normal in any other democracy". He shakes up his legal team on February 13.
On March 5, the court approves Ghosn's third request for bail which is set at one billion yen ($9 million, eight million euros).
- April 2019: Rearrest, bailed again -
He is rearrested in a dawn raid of his Tokyo apartment in early April, and on April 22, authorities hit him with a further charge of aggravated breach of trust, alleging he siphoned off money for personal ends from cash transferred from Nissan to a dealership in Oman.
On April 25, the court grants Ghosn a second bail of $4.5 million. He is banned from leaving Japan and requires court permission to see his wife.
- September 2019: US charges -
On September 9, Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa resigns amid allegations that he also padded his salary, adding 47 million yen by altering the terms of a bonus. He denies wrongdoing but apologizes. Ghosn and Nissan are accused by U.S. securities regulators of hiding more than $140 million in his expected retirement income from investors. Ghosn is fined $1 million, and Nissan says it will pay $15 million.
- December 2019: Ghosn jumps bail-
Just before New Year's Eve, Ghosn gives authorities in Japan the slip, hiding in an instrument case to flee on a private plane. He eventually lands in Lebanon, which does not have an extradition treaty with Japan.
A week later he gives a press conference claiming Nissan colluded with prosecutors to have him arrested because he wanted to deepen the Japanese firm's alliance with Renault. He says he fled because he did not believe he would get a fair trial.
- May 2020: Ghosn accomplices arrested -
Two men accused of helping Ghosn flee Japan are arrested in the United States. Japan seeks to extradite them, and in September a U.S. judge rules extradition proceedings can move forward, though it is not immediately clear if the pair will be brought to Japan and when.
- September 2020: Kelly trial -
The trial against Kelly begins in Tokyo on a single charge of under-reporting Ghosn's compensation. He denies wrongdoing and pleads not guilty. Nissan, on trial as a firm on the same charge, pleads guilty to the charges.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2020

The peace treaties between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel are signed
Lahav Harkov/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2020
Netanyahu: 'Treaty could end Arab-Israel conflict once and for all'
Marking the "dawn of a new Middle East", Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed on Tuesday historic and groundbreaking normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the third and fourth ever between Israel and Arab states. “This is an incredible day for the world,” said US President Donald Trump at the start of the ceremony. The courage of the Israeli and Arab leaders has enabled these countries “to take a major stride toward a future where people of all faiths live together in peace and prosperity," Trump said.
The text of the peace Accord with the UAE and the declaration of peace with Bahrain was not made available to the public before the signing. Among the details Israeli officials divulged before the signing ceremony were that the agreements would not go into effect until the Israeli cabinet ratified them, and UAE officials said there would be references to a two-state solution. The president added that the Abraham Accords - as he has called them - open the door for Muslim, Jews and Christians “to live together, pray together and dream together." He emphasized that Muslims from around the world would be to visit the holy sites in Israel, including the Al Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
Netanyahu spoke next, reminding the audience that the Jews have prayed for peace for thousands of years and the citizens of Israel have for decades. The day “brings hope to all of the children of Abraham," he said.
“To all of Israel's friends in the Middle East - those who are with us today and those who will join us tomorrow - I say, salaam aleichem, peace unto thee, Shalom," he continued.
“The blessings of peace that we make today will be enormous,” he continued, “first because this peace will eventually expand to include other Arab states, and ultimately, it can end the Arab-Israel conflict once and for all.
UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed expressed similar sentiments, reinforcing that “we are witnessing today a new trend that will create a new path for the Middle East."
But he also emphasized that the Abraham Accords “will enable us to stand with the Palestinians and enable their hopes of establishing a Palestinian state.” He thanked Netanyahu for “halting annexation of Palestinian territories.”
Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Alzayani spoke as well.
Trump and Netanyahu met in the Oval Office ahead of the ceremony. During that meeting, Trump said that he expects “about five different countries” that Israel will have peace with “down the road.”
He added that the Jewish state made peace with two Arab countries in 72 years and an additional two in two months. The two Gulf States become the third and fourth countries in the Middle East to recognize Israel and establish formal diplomatic relations with the Jewish State since Egypt did so in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, drastically re-drawing the political map in the region. Palestinian leaders have reacted furiously to the deals, which were reached before a resolution could be found in their dispute with Israel. But Trump, who will be hosting the signing ceremony, and whose administration brokered the agreements between the parties, predicted that the Palestinians would eventually join in normalizing relations with Israel, or else will be "left out in the cold."
“The Palestinians will absolutely be a member at the right time,” Trump said on Tuesday. The president shoved off a question regarding annexation, saying that “we are not talking about that right now, it is working out well.”
He continued, “They’re tired of fighting” and that he thinks what Israel gets out of the deal is “peace.” Israelis want peace very much, Trump said, adding that "even Bibi gets tired of war."
On the sale of F-35 warplanes to the UAE, Trump simply said that "we'll work that out. It's going to be an easy thing."The UAE's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said on Tuesday that his country's decision to normalize relations with Israel had "broken the psychological barrier" and was "the way forward" for the region, creating more leverage. Several diplomatic sources have hinted that the Sultanate of Oman - which Netanyahu famously visited in 2018 - would be the next country to announce a normalization agreement with Israel. Oman's leader spoke with Trump last week. Saudi Arabia, which allowed an Israeli and American delegation to cross its airspace in August for the first direct flight between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, is also said to be considering a warming of ties with Israel even though Saudi leaders have said publicly that they are not yet ready for full normalization.
"Instead of focusing on past conflicts, people are now focused on creating a vibrant future filled with endless possibilities,” White House senior adviser Jared Kushner, who helped negotiate the agreements, said in a statement late on Monday.
Reuters contributed to this report.

Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalization deal has created a new Middle East
Yaakov Katz/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2020
It shows what can be achieved when countries that for over 70 years failed to find common ground, come together in a show of peace, normalization and solidarity. A new Middle East. That is what was created on Tuesday at the Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalization deal signed at the White House.
It is a new Middle East because what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did with the foreign ministers of the UAE and Bahrain was to create not just a new reality that brings stability to the region against the looming threat from Iran, but it also presents the world with a new vision of what is possible.
It shows what can be achieved when countries who for over 70 years failed to find common ground, come together in a show of peace, normalization and solidarity.
What the UAE and Bahrain essentially did on Tuesday was to abandon the ways of the past, which mandated a rejection of Israel, a rejection of normalization with the Jewish state and a rejection of peace.
What they also did was to help fulfill the dream and aspirations of what Israelis have always yearned for: to be accepted as equals in this region. That is all Israel has ever really wanted. It never sought war, conflict or strife. When David Ben-Gurion accepted the Partition Plan of 1947, he did so knowing that the state envisioned by the United Nations would be small and hard to defend. But, if the Arabs accepted the plan too, that would create a new reality. They, of course, did not, and instead embarked on a war to try and annihilate the nascent Jewish state.
But Israel didn’t want war. It tried over the years to reach deals with its neighbors. And while it took time and too much bloodshed, Jordan (after three wars) and Egypt (after four wars) eventually came around. They, too, recognized what Menachem Begin famously declared in 1977: “No more war, no more bloodshed.” The lack of bloodshed and war between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain is exactly what makes the deals signed Tuesday so historic and groundbreaking. They don’t mean the end of hostilities, since there never were any hostilities. They don’t mean the end of war, as there never was war. Instead, these peace deals have the potential to usher in a new form of Israeli-Arab ties not seen before in this region.
And we have all seen the warmth with which news of the normalization has been received in the UAE. Emiratis speak enthusiastically about the benefits of peace, of traveling to Israel and of hosting throngs of Israelis in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and beyond. The Jewish community has come out of the shadows and hotels have been ordered to make sure they are always stocked with kosher food. Just as important, however, is what these normalization deals mean for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the once accepted paradigms for how it can be solved. The idea, for example, that Israel will not be able to normalize ties with Gulf states without first withdrawing from the West Bank and giving the Palestinians a state, has been disproven. This vision of a new Middle East will not be held hostage by an intransigent Palestinian leadership that has consistently rejected any attempt to move the conflict toward resolution since the Oslo Accords were signed at the White House 27 years ago. Does this mean Israel should ignore the Palestinians and continue searching for Arab countries further afield in which to build embassies without trying to establish one in Ramallah as well? No.
Now, from a point of strength, Israel should use the momentum from the signing on Tuesday to try to pull the Palestinians to the negotiating table. It is not only what is right for the region, it is also what is needed for Israel.
Will the Palestinians understand this? It’s too early to tell. For now, they have embraced the continued path of rejectionism and intransigence – and that’s not a surprise, considering that we mark the 20th anniversary this month of the outbreak of the Second Intifada, the last coordinated Palestinian uprising.
In the meantime, this is an opportunity to celebrate. We can celebrate the history that was made on Tuesday, as well as the new Middle East that is being created before our eyes.
It is also an opportunity to recognize Netanyahu’s accomplishment. The deals not only mark a new dawn for Israel but they are a feather in Netanyahu’s cap. He, against great odds, succeeded in overturning the accepted paradigm of how peace is achieved. He did this – and Israelis owe him a debt of gratitude.
We owe him because, if done right, these deals with Bahrain and the UAE will outlive Netanyahu’s premiership and will outlive us all. They will remain for the benefit of our children, our grandchildren and future generations.
We owe him gratitude, even as he continues to fail to manage the coronavirus crisis – and even though he continues to put politics before the people and populism before the pandemic. Is he still on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust? Of course.
But for today, Israel can celebrate and imagine what is possible when recognition overcomes rejectionism and peace replaces hostility. This is the new Middle East.

What does the Abraham Accords mean for Trump politically?
Omri Nahmias/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2020
Even with normalization success, economy still top priority for US voters
The signing of the Abraham Accords is a significant achievement and part of a broader push of US President Donald Trump’s administration to cement his Middle East policy ahead of the presidential election, as early in-person voting is starting. First and foremost, it helps counter the Iranian influence in the region and creates a public front of countries that opposed the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran, ensuring that even if Joe Biden were to win the election, it would be harder for him to reenter the same deal that the Obama administration has signed. In 2015, Israel and the Gulf states were against the deal, but they could not share their concerns jointly – at least not in public. On Tuesday, the president noted that the recent developments could bring Iran to the table as well after the election. “Iran is suffering, I don’t want them to suffer, but their economy has tanked, and I think they want to make a deal, and I will make a very fair deal,” the president said. Trump is also invested in making good on another promise of his 2016 campaign by reducing US military presence across the Middle East. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with a Taliban delegation in Qatar over the weekend for the Afghanistan peace negotiations, as Trump is interested in securing progress that would enable US troops to safely leave the country, in addition to a partial withdrawal from Iraq. This multi-channel progress, together with the economic agreement between Serbia and Kosovo (which agreed to open an embassy in Jerusalem), brings Trump in a good position for the debate with Biden when it comes to foreign policy. It also helps Trump showcase his ability to broker complicated deals, as a full trade agreement with China seems unlikely before the election, as does an agreement to denuclearize North Korea. With that said, it is hard to predict what would be the political influence of these agreements (and possible additional agreements) on November’s election, as foreign policy is traditionally not a top priority for voters. The economy remains the most critical issue, as the unemployment rate recently decreased to 8.4%. Healthcare, and specifically COVID-19, remains a high priority as well, as the US still faces a significant number of daily cases. On his photo opportunity with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said five additional countries are about to join Bahrain and the UAE. “Some before the elections, perhaps,” said Trump. As diplomats from Oman and Sudan attended the ceremony at the White House, speculations arose that they could be next. The question that remains open is if Saudi Arabia is also included in this group. If the answer is yes, it would be a geopolitical game changer for the Middle East for many years to come.

Trump Hails 'Dawn of New Middle East' as Israel, UAE, Bahrain Sign Historic Pacts
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 15/2020
Declaring "the dawn of a new Middle East," President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed historic diplomatic pacts with Israel and two Gulf Arab nations that he hopes will lead to a new order in the Mideast and cast him as a peacemaker at the height of his reelection campaign. Hundreds of people massed on the sun-washed South Lawn to witness the signing of agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The bilateral agreements formalize the normalization of the Jewish state's already thawing relations with the two Arab nations in line with their common opposition to Iran and its aggression in the region. "We're here this afternoon to change the course of history," Trump said from a balcony overlooking the South Lawn. "After decades of division and conflict, we mark the dawn of a new Middle East."
The agreements do not address the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the UAE, Bahrain and other Arab countries support the Palestinians, the Trump administration has persuaded the two countries not to let that conflict keep them from having normal relations with Israel.
Trump's political backers are looking for the agreements to boost his standing as a statesman with just seven weeks to go before Election Day. Until now, foreign policy has not had a major role in a campaign dominated by the coronavirus, racial issues and the economy. The pandemic was in the backdrop of the White House ceremony, where there was no social distancing and most guests didn't wear masks. The agreements won't end active wars, but supporters believe they could pave the way for a broader Arab-Israeli rapprochement after decades of enmity and only two previous peace deals. Skeptics, including many longtime Mideast analysts and former officials, have expressed doubts about their impact and lamented that they ignore the Palestinians, who have rejected them as a stab in the back by fellow Arabs.
During the ceremony, Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the brother of Abu Dhabi's powerful crown prince, thanked Israel for "halting the annexation of Palestinian territories," although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Israel has only temporarily suspended its plans to annex West Bank settlements. "Today, we are already witnessing a change in the heart of the Middle East - a change that will send hope around the world," al-Nahyan said. Even the harshest critics have allowed that the agreements could usher in a major shift in the region should other Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, follow suit, with implications for Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Other Arab countries believed to be close to recognizing Israel include Oman, Sudan and Morocco.
"We are very down the road with about five different countries," Trump told reporters before the ceremony. In addition to the bilateral agreements signed by Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, all three are signing a document dubbed the "Abraham Accords" after the patriarch of the world's three major monotheistic religions. "This day is a pivot of history," Netanyahu said. "It heralds a new dawn of peace." "Despite the many challenges and hardships that we all face - despite all that, let us pause a moment to appreciate this remarkable day."
The Palestinians have not embraced the U.S. vision. Palestinian activists held small demonstrations Tuesday in the West Bank and in Gaza, where they trampled and set fire to pictures of Trump, Netanyahu and the leaders of the UAE and Bahrain.
A poll released Tuesday found that 86% of Palestinians believe the normalization agreement with the UAE serves only Israel's interests and not their own. The poll, carried out by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, was carried out Sept. 9-12 and surveyed 1,270 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Even in Israel, where the accords have received widespread acclaim, there is concern they might result in U.S. sales of sophisticated weaponry to the UAE and Bahrain, thus potentially upsetting Israel's qualitative military edge in the region. Trump said he is OK with selling military aircraft to the UAE. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also welcomed the agreements but said she wants to learn details, specifically what the Trump administration has told the UAE about buying American-made F-35 aircraft and about Israel agreeing to freeze efforts to annex portions of the West Bank.
Bahrani Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani said Bahrain would stand with the Palestinians. "Today is a truly historic occasion," he said. "A moment for hope and opportunity."And while the UAE and Bahrain have a history of suppressing dissent and critical public opinion, there have been indications that the agreements are not nearly as popular or well-received as in Israel. Neither country sent its head of state or government to sign the deals with Netanyahu.
Bahrain's largest Shiite-dominated opposition group, Al-Wefaq, which the government ordered dissolved in 2016 amid a yearslong crackdown on dissent, said there is widespread rejection of normalization. Al-Wefaq said in a statement that it joins other Bahrainis who reject the agreement to normalize ties with the "Zionist entity," and criticized the government for crushing the public's ability to express opinions "to obscure the extent of discontent" at normalization. The ceremony follows months of intricate diplomacy headed by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, and the president's envoy for international negotiations, Avi Berkowitz. On Aug. 13, the Israel-UAE deal was announced. That was followed by the first direct commercial flight between the countries, and then the Sept. 11 announcement of the Bahrain-Israel agreement.

Trump Says Peace Deals Close between Israel and '5 or 6' Other Nations
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that "five or six" more Arab countries were poised to agree to normalize relations with Israel, in line with the landmark accords struck between the Jewish state and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. "We're very far down the road with about five countries, five additional countries," Trump said as he hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office, ahead of a signing ceremony with both Arab states for the U.S.-brokered peace deal. "We'll have at least five or six countries coming along very quickly, we're already talking to them," Trump said.Trump did not name the additional countries, but hinted during separate bilateral talks with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan that Saudi Arabia may be on board without saying so specifically. "We've had great talks with Saudi Arabia. I think their mind is very open," said Trump who also met with Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani ahead of the signing ceremony. For the Mideast, the deals dubbed the Abraham Accords mark a distinct shift in a decades-old status quo where Arab countries have tried to maintain unity against Israel over its treatment of the stateless Palestinians. "After decades of division and conflict we mark the dawn of a new Middle East," Trump said as the signing ceremony began. Palestinian leaders have urged demonstrations in the occupied territories and outside embassies of the United States, Israel, Bahrain and the UAE to protest what they called "shameful agreements."Trump nonetheless voiced confidence the Palestinians would eventually sign on to the US-brokered peace agreements -- which he hopes will boost his reelection chances in November. "The Palestinians will absolutely be a member. I don't say that with any bravado, I just tell you the Palestinians will be a member at the right time," Trump said. The White House event will be the first time Arab nations have established relations with Israel since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. Hundreds of people were invited to attend and a symbolic handshake between the Arab representatives and Netanyahu has not been ruled out.

Iran in the shadow of the peace deal: Missile fire on Israel from Gaza
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 15/2020
Iran backs Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and coordinates closely with them. Iranian media stressed that rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza during the signing of the peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain. Fars News said that the rocket sirens were heard in Ashkelon and Ashdod “at the same time as Arab, American and Zionists officials gathered at the White House.” Fars News put the details up quickly on its site online, indicating it was either paying close attention or had advance knowledge of the strikes. Iran's media sought to highlight the rocket fire immediately to distract from the signing ceremony. Iran backs Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and coordinates closely with them. Fars News said the rockets were fired at the “Zionist settlements of Ashkelon and Ashdod.” Fars News appeared to claim it had relied on a Reuters and Yediot Ahronot account, but its photos and explanatory text indicated it had done more work on this issue. The Iranian media was interested in the “size of the rocket” used and also Israel’s air defense systems being activated.
Fars News claims that Israel’s assertions that it intercepted the rockets were “not true” and it showed images of a shop allegedly damaged, “two people were injured.” The Iranian media, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stressed that this rocket fire came during the signing of the agreement with the UAE and Bahrain. This was obvious, and others have drawn the conclusions that the Palestinian armed factions in Gaza did this on purpose directly timed to the speeches of the signing.
However, what is of interest here is that the Iranian media generally tried to ignore the signing. In the past Iran has led the charge in condemnation of the new agreements. It has accused the Gulf states of “betraying” the Palestinians. Iran’s regime has opposed US President Donald Trump’s "Deal of the Century."
Iran has increased its rhetoric in recent weeks, slamming Bahrain for joining the agreements and hinting that it could try to undermine Bahrain’s leaders or strike at the country. Last September Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia. It has also sent drones and missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis have been increasing attacks on Saudi Arabia. Recent reports in Gulf and Austrian media have accused Qatar of being linked to the Houthis. Qatar also has warm relations with Iran, helps pay salaries in Gaza, has hosted Hamas and is close to Turkey. Turkey, like Iran, has slammed the Israel deals with the Gulf and Turkey’s current leadership has vowed to “liberate Al-Aqsa” in Jerusalem.  In contrast to Fars News, Tasnim news in Iran stressed that Trump might be open to a new Iran Deal, a story based on US media reports. It also stressed pro-Iranian groups support for attacks on US troops in Iraq. It also highlighted Hamas in Gaza condemning the Israeli deal and other issues. Overall the Iranian coverage indicates that Tehran is paying close attention to the rocket fire on Israel and the deal with the Gulf. It wants to emphasize the role of Hamas. Hamas leaders recently also met Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas is seeking to increase its clout in Lebanon with a high level delegation staying in Lebanon for weeks. Hamas has also met with Hezbollah. Iran appears to seek to highlight the Hamas role in order to counteract the agreements between Israel and the Gulf.
Al-Mayadeen media, which tends to support Iran and its proxies, also has highlighted the increasing role of Hamas. In general the narrative seems to be that if Israel and the UAE and Bahrain are increasing their connections, then Iran will at least pretend that its friends and allies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, are increasing their role.

Three Western Targets in Iraq Attacked in 24 Hours
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 15/2020
Three separate attacks in 24 hours have targeted Western diplomatic or military installations in Iraq, security and diplomatic sources said Tuesday, hinting at a new escalation between authorities and rogue groups.
While no casualties were reported in any of the attacks, Iraqi officials told AFP they see the spike as an indirect way to pressure the government as it tries to fight graft. On Tuesday morning, an improvised explosive device targeted a British embassy vehicle returning from Baghdad airport, a diplomatic source told AFP. The attack, the first against a British government vehicle in Iraq in more than a decade, took place just outside the high-security Green Zone that houses the British embassy and other diplomatic missions, the source said. A security official confirmed the details of the attack and said Iraqi forces inside the Green Zone were on alert. Overnight, two Katyusha rockets targeted the U.S. embassy, also in the Green Zone, the same security official said. The embassy's C-RAM rocket defense system shot both down. Witnesses reported hearing a deep rolling sound then a blast, and seeing sprays of red lights. The C-RAM, set up earlier this year at the embassy, scans for incoming munitions and explodes them in the air by targeting them with several thousand bullets per minute. Hours earlier on Monday, two explosive devices targeted a U.S.-led coalition equipment convoy, the Iraqi military said in a statement. Iraqi intelligence sources have blamed similar attacks on a small group of Iran-backed paramilitary factions. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi has pledged to rein in rogue groups but has struggled to hold the perpetrators of such attacks to account. Top Iraqi officials have told AFP they interpret the attacks as a response to Kadhemi's reform agenda, which such groups fear could deprive them of their sources of funding. Indeed, the recent spike on Tuesday came just after the prime minister's office announced major personnel changes, including senior posts at the central bank, the Integrity Commission and the Investment Commission. The new appointments are intended to clear out corruption in those institutions, officials said. Iraq is ranked one of the top 20 most corrupt countries in the world according to Transparency International, with some $450 billion in public funds vanishing into the pockets of shady politicians and businessmen since 2003.

Iraq PM Appoints New Batch of Officials to Senior Positions
Baghdad – Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi made on Monday a second reshuffle of senior government positions since he assumed the premiership in May. His move came one day after a set of directives was addressed to the government by Supreme Shiite cleric, Ali al-Sistani, in which he called to fight corruption, organize early elections under international supervision and prosecute those responsible for killing peaceful demonstrators. Many activists, however, criticized the new appointments, which they said were based on “quota sharing” and included names who had held senior positions in the past but failed to prove their competence. Observers noted that the new positions were allocated according to “quotas and partisanship” and were mostly dedicated to the political movements of Al-Hikma and al-Sadr, al-Fateh Alliance, al-Fadila Party and the State of Law Coalition.
The reshuffle included the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, which was occupied by Ali Al-Alaq for more than 10 years. The latter was replaced by the Bank’s director of the legal department, Mustafa Ghaleb. Kadhimi also made direct changes in the economic and security sectors by appointing former Defense Minister Khalid al-Obeidi as the deputy of operations affairs in the Iraqi National Intelligence Service. Al-Obeidi was dismissed from office over corruption allegations in 2016. Other newly appointed officials in the security sector is Faleh Younis Hassan, who was chosen as deputy of the National Security Service. The Minister of Justice in the government of former PM Nuri al-Maliki, Hassan Halbous al-Shammari, a member of the Islamic Fadila party, obtained the position of chairman of the Securities Commission. Advisor to the Prime Minister, Soha Dawoud Elias Najjar, was appointed to the position of president of the National Investment Commission, which Sami Al-Araji has held for about 15 years. Kadhimi also appointed Alaa Jawad Hamid as the head of National Integrity Commission, which is tasked with fighting corruption.

Greek Minister: Force May Be Used to Move Homeless Migrants
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Greece’s migration minister said Tuesday that the government will use force, if necessary, to move homeless migrants to a new tent city after fires at an overcrowded refugee camp left thousands of people without shelter on the island of Lesbos. Some 12,000 people fled the fires that gutted the Greek island's Moria camp last week. Many are refusing to leave a nearby road where they have camped out for almost a week, fearing they could be detained at the tent city for months. Only 800 of the 5,000 available places at the temporary army-built site have been filled, officials said Tuesday, The Associated Press reported. Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi said efforts to relocate migrants on a voluntary basis, with the help of government translators and pamphlets being distributed to asylum-seekers, were continuing. But speaking to Greek broadcaster Mega TV, he added: “If this is not possible through discussion, then the police will have to be used. It is their obligation to be moved to the new site.”Mitarachi said it would take at least six months to build a permanent structure to replace the Moria camp, acknowledging that migrants and refugees would spend the winter in tents.

Israeli Opposition Chief: Govt Imposed 2nd Lockdown Because It's 'Completely Lost'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to the US just moments after announcing a second nationwide lockdown to tackle the coronavirus, a move described by opposition leader Yair Lapid as a total failure. "The only reason our government has decided to go into the second lockdown is because they're completely lost," he told AFP. "It's a very aggressive move. It's devastating for the economy and it's not that helpful in terms of stopping the epidemic," Lapid noted. According to an AFP tally over the past fortnight, Israel is second behind Bahrain for the world's highest coronavirus infection rate. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a nationwide lockdown starting on Friday, the eve of the Jewish New Year holiday. Meanwhile, nearly 5,000 new COVID cases were confirmed in 24 hours in Israel after 4,973 cases were confirmed positive. So far, up to 126,000 cases were recorded in Israel, in addition to 1,140 deaths. Meanwhile, 120,000 recovered from the infection. Tens of thousands of Israelis have demonstrated in recent weeks, calling for Netanyahu to resign over his handling of the pandemic and its economic fallout.

Turkey's Arrest of Lawyers Draws International Criticism
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Turkish and international lawyers’ groups have voiced concern over the arrest of dozens of lawyers, saying they had been doing their job when representing clients accused of links to the network Turkey blames for an attempted coup in 2016. The Ankara state prosecutor’s office ordered the detention of 60 people on Friday, including 48 lawyers and others in the legal sector, suspected of operating in support of the network of US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen. The suspects were part of a structure within the Gulenist network which sought to “steer investigations in favor of the group under the guise of attorney activities”, the prosecutor’s office said. The Istanbul Bar Association described the arrests as intimidation. In a statement released on Monday, it said the allegations related to the execution of their duties as lawyers, representing clients accused of Gulen links. “A lawyer cannot be identified with their client,” the association said. “Intimidation which hopes to restrict the lawyers’ duty ... will impact the public as much as lawyers and gradually destroy confidence in justice.” The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) also expressed concern, saying the arrests breached Turkey’s obligations under international law.
“Lawyers should never be arrested or sanctioned for representing their clients, or identified with their clients causes,” said Roisin Pillay, Director of the ICJ Europe and Central Asia Program. In a crackdown since the failed coup, in which 250 people were killed, tens of thousands of people have been arrested. Gulen, a former ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has denied involvement in the putsch. On Tuesday, prosecutors in the western province of Izmir ordered the arrest of 66 suspects, including 48 serving military personnel, in an investigation of the armed forces, state-owned Anadolu news agency reported.
In the post-coup crackdown, more than 20,000 people had been expelled from the Turkish military.

Kremlin Critic Navalny Posts Photo from Hospital, Says he Can Breathe Independently
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny shared a photograph from a Berlin hospital on Tuesday, sitting up in bed and surrounded by his family, and said he could now breathe independently following his suspected poisoning last month.
"Hi, this is Navalny. I miss you all," he wrote in the caption to his Instagram followers. "I can still hardly do anything, but yesterday I could breathe all day on my own. Actually on my own." Navalny, the leading opponent of Russian President Vladimir Putin, fell violently sick in Siberia last month and was airlifted to Berlin. Germany says laboratory tests in three countries have determined he was poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent, and Western governments have demanded an explanation from Russia. Moscow has called the accusations groundless. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated on Tuesday that Moscow was open to clearing up what happened to Navalny, but it needed access to information on his case from Germany. Peskov said everyone would be happy if Navalny recovered, and he was free to return to Russia. But he said Moscow did not understand why, if French and Swedish laboratories had been able to test his medical samples, Russia was not being given the same access.

Hong Kong: 1.8m Tested in Massive Testing Program
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Nearly 1.8 million Hong Kong residents took voluntary coronavirus tests as part of a massive community testing program, resulting in 42 cases being identified, the government said Tuesday. The two-week testing program, which ended Monday, was aimed at identifying silent carriers of the coronavirus to cut the transmission chain in a wave of cases that began in July. Although the total number of people tested fell short of the government’s initial estimate of four to five million, officials said the program met its objectives. “The program ended smoothly, we have met the policy objective,” Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said at a news conference. “We have identified confirmed cases, we’ve isolated them and given them treatment to cut the transmission chain.”China’s central government provided resources and staff for the testing program in the city, and many Hong Kong residents expressed fear that DNA might be collected despite the Hong Kong government dismissing such concerns. Since the outbreak’s peak in July — blamed in part on exemptions from quarantine requirements for airline staff, truck drivers from mainland China and sailors on cargo ships — cases have steadily dwindled. Hong Kong reported no new local coronavirus infections on Tuesday for the first time in over two months, The Associated Press reported. The government also said it would further relax social-distancing measures, allowing bars, amusement parks and swimming pools to re-open. Restaurants will also be allowed to serve customers until midnight. However, a ban on public gatherings of more than four people remains in place. Hong Kong has recorded 4,976 infections so far, including 101 deaths.

India Virus Cases Near 5 Million
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
India confirmed more than 83,000 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, bringing its total caseload to nearly 5 million. The Health Ministry also reported 1,054 new deaths, driving total fatalities up to 80,776. With 4.93 million confirmed cases, India has the second-highest total in the world after the US Infections have maintained an upward surge amid an ease in coronavirus restrictions nationwide. More than 600,000 new cases have been confirmed in the last week alone. Maharashtra, with more than 1 million cases, remains the worst-affected state in India, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. India, however, also has the highest number of recovered patients in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University. The country’s recovery rate stands at 77.8%, with nearly 3.8 million people recovering from the virus so far, according to the Health Ministry. India’s Parliament, which reopened Monday after being shut down for more than five months due to the coronavirus, said that more than 10 million migrant laborers had made their way back to their home states from various corners of the country during a strict nationwide lockdown. It said there was no data available for the number of migrant deaths, The Associated Press reported. A flood of migrant workers, out of money and fearing starvation, poured out of cities and headed back to villages when Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered the nationwide lockdown on March 24. The unprecedented migration was one key reason that the virus spread to the far reaches of the country. The lockdown also caused a severe economic crisis. India's economy contracted nearly 24% in the second quarter, the worst among the world’s top economies.

Analysis: With Abe's Exit, Seoul Seeks to Mend Japan Ties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
It took a bombshell resignation before Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heard anything nice from South Korea. The rare praise came after years of diplomatic rows and testy confrontations between Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and only after the Japanese prime minister announced at the end of last month that he was stepping down after eight years in office because of ill health. With Abe and Moon in charge, the relationship between the key US allies sank to new lows, with grievances over wartime history spilling over into trade and military issues. Japan's political shakeup could be an opportunity for South Korea, which sees Abe’s departure as a chance to clear things up between the rivals. Senior South Korean officials during a recent national security council meeting vowed to “advance stalled negotiations on pending issues” once a new Japanese leader is in place. Yoshihide Suga, currently chief Cabinet secretary and Abe’s right-hand man, won Japan’s governing party leadership vote Monday, virtually guaranteeing that parliament will choose him as the next prime minister. Suga has also hinted at improving ties with South Korea. “China and South Korea are neighbors, and even though there are difficult problems between us, I plan to pursue diplomacy that can allow us to always communicate and develop strategic relations with them, rather than choosing one or the other,” he said in a recent debate. Good relations are crucial to both Japan and South Korea. Despite their political conflicts, they remain closely connected economically and face similar challenges. Those include North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal and a rising superpower in China.
They also share long-term uncertainties about their alliances with a less-engaging United States, a shift highlighted by President Donald Trump’s “America first” approach and his complaints about the costs of stationing some 80,000 US troops in South Korea and Japan. “Patching up differences with Tokyo would improve alliance coordination with the United States, help manage regional uncertainties concerning China, and provide Seoul leverage in dealing with North Korea,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
What remains unclear, however, is whether Abe’s exit will prove to be a diplomatic turning point. Mutual resentment runs deep and goes beyond individual politicians. To South Koreans, Abe was less likable than even North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, according to a November Gallup Korea poll. Abe was often seen in South Korea as a right-wing nationalist intent on whitewashing Japanese colonialism and atrocities on the Korean Peninsula before the end of World War II. Placing the blame for bad relations entirely on Abe, however, overlooks the broad public support he won at home for a tough policy toward South Korea.
There’s a widespread view in Japan that South Korea is violating international norms by repeatedly revisiting wartime issues that were supposed to have been settled, said Choi Eun-mi, a Japan expert at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “Abe’s resignation does offer a window for improved relations, but it’s unrealistic to expect significant changes,” she said. There will be chances to resume stalled talks between the countries' leaders, including a possible three-way summit with China that South Korea hopes to host in November. But it will take longer for Seoul and Tokyo to “rediscover their importance to each other” beyond their interdependence in security and cooperation matters with Washington, Choi said. South Korea and Japan have long differed over history, but previous political tensions were softened by vibrant trade and exchanges of pop culture and tourism. That wasn’t the case in 2019 when Japan’s move to place export controls on chemicals vital to South Korea’s semiconductor industry sparked an outpouring of national anger in South Korea and sweeping boycotts of Japanese products. Moon accused Abe’s government of weaponizing trade to retaliate against South Korean Supreme Court rulings in 2018 that ordered Japanese companies to offer reparations to aging Korean plaintiffs who had been forced into wartime slave labor.
Seoul later threatened to terminate a military intelligence-sharing agreement with Tokyo, a major symbol of their trilateral security cooperation with Washington. It eventually backed off after being pressured by the Trump administration, which until then seemed content to let its allies escalate their feud in public.
South Korea and Japan’s strained relations have hurt their ability to deal with the unpredictable foreign policy of Trump, who has questioned the value of US alliances while raising tensions with China, a major trading partner for both, said Park Won-gon, a professor at South Korea’s Handong University.
“Ideally, strong coordination between South Korea and Japan would help steer the Trump administration into pursuing its regional strategies within international norms and rules,” Park said. South Korea will likely need to close the gap between its domestic court rulings and existing bilateral agreements to improve ties with Japan. Many Japanese see the South Korean forced labor rulings as a challenge to a 1965 treaty between the countries that was accompanied by Japanese payments to restore diplomatic ties. Tokyo insists that all compensation matters were settled then.
There’s also frustration over Moon’s 2017 decision to walk back a 2015 agreement negotiated under South Korea's previous conservative government that attempted to “irreversibly” resolve a decades-long impasse over Korean women forced into sexual slavery by Japan’s wartime military.
The deal, which had Japan give $9 million to a foundation to help the victims, sparked huge protests in South Korea, where many accused their government of settling for far too little after failing to consult victims. There were claims that Abe was attempting to silence the women with money. There has been little sign that either government is willing to budge. Moon continues to demand Japanese respect for the South Korean court rulings. Suga, the likely successor to Abe, has pledged to inherit his policies and push them forward.
There's a further complicating possibility that South Korean courts may order the liquidation of local assets of Japanese companies that have refused to compensate forced laborers. A breakthrough may have to come from legislation, but that won’t be easy, either.
Former South Korean National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang last year proposed a foundation created by private donations from both countries to compensate forced laborers. The bill, which eventually died, was heavily criticized by lawyers and activists representing victims, who said the foundation would sidestep the Japanese government’s direct responsibility. “Regardless of who becomes Japan’s next prime minister ... there will be limits to how much bilateral relations can improve unless the countries find a solution to the forced labor issue,” Park said.

Albanians Want Children Returned from Refugee Camps in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
Albanian family members protested Monday, demanding that the government bring back 52 children who have been stuck in Syria because their parents were extremists. Scores of people gathered near the main government building in Tirana, the capital. Some carried placards calling for help, including one that read “Forgotten in Syria, turn our kids back home” — words they also chanted. Police tried to disperse the crowd, reminding them that no gatherings were allowed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Gjetan Ndregjoni, the uncle of Eva and Endri, described in tears how they were lost almost seven years ago and reiterated the family's determination to take them back. In January 2014, Shkelzen Dumani secretly left Albania together with Eva, 6, and Endri, 8, to go to Syria through Turkey and join the ISIS group. Some six months later he was killed in fighting, and his mother Mentie then went to take care of the children. She died earlier this month and the children could not give the reason. The two children have remained at the al-Hol refugee camp in Syria, and have contacted their mother Mide and uncle Gjetan by phone time and again. “They always ask us on phone when the government will pick them up, like Kosovo, Bosnia did,” says Ndregjoni. A few hundred Albanian men joined terror groups in Syria and Iraq in the early 2010s. Now many of them are dead and their women and children are stuck in Syria camps. Albanian authorities say they are working hard to return all such children. “A similar chorus we listen always: We are working, but we are seeing nothing,” said Ndregjoni, while his sister Mide, 43, stayed behind, ashamed to speak at all. Authorities say no Albanians have joined extremist groups in Syria and Iraq in the last four to five years.

US Issues Sweeping New Travel Warning for China, Hong Kong
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
The US on Tuesday issued a sweeping new advisory warning against travel to mainland China and Hong Kong, citing the risk of “arbitrary detention" and “arbitrary enforcement of local laws." The advisory is likely to heighten tensions between the sides that have spiked since Beijing’s imposition on Hong Kong of a strict new national security law in June that has already been met with a series of US punitive actions. The new advisory warned US citizens that China imposes “arbitrary detention and exit bans” to compel cooperation with investigations, pressure family members to return to China from abroad, influence civil disputes and “gain bargaining leverage over foreign governments.”“US citizens traveling or residing in China or Hong Kong, may be detained without access to US consular services or information about their alleged crime. US citizens may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention without due process of law," the advisory said. In Hong Kong, China “unilaterally and arbitrarily exercises police and security power,” the advisory said, adding that new legislation also covers offenses committed by non-Hong Kong residents or organizations outside of Hong Kong, possibly subjecting US citizens who have publicly criticized China to a “heightened risk of arrest, detention, expulsion, or prosecution.”When in Hong Kong, US citizens are “strongly cautioned to be aware of their surroundings and avoid demonstrations," the advisory said, according to The Associated Press.
Last month, the Trump administration suspended or terminated three bilateral agreements with Hong Kong covering extradition and tax exemptions, citing Beijing’s violation of its pledge for Hong Kong to retain broad autonomy for 50 years after the former British colony's 1997 handover to Chinese rule.
Other Western nations have also suspended their extradition treaties with Hong Kong following the national security's law's passage. The latest travel advisory did not offer any new warnings regarding COVID-19 in mainland China and Hong Kong, but referred travelers to earlier notices advising Americans to avoid the regions and return home from them if possible.

UN: Boat Capsizes Near Libya, at Least 24 Migrants Drowned
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 September, 2020
The UN migration agency said Tuesday that a boat carrying migrants bound for Europe capsized in the Mediterranean Sea off Libya, leaving at least two dozen people drowned or missing and presumed dead. Safa Msehli, a spokesperson for the International Organization for Migration, told The Associated Press that Libya’s coast guard intercepted three boats on Monday, and one of them had capsized. She says the coast guard retrieved two bodies, and survivors reported 22 others were missing and presumed dead. The tragedy came after a capsizing in August left at least 45 people drowned or missing and presumed dead, marking the largest number of fatalities in a single shipwreck off the coast of the North African country.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/2020

France Should Stand with Freedom, Not Tehran
Michael R. Pompeo, USA Secretary Of State/Le Figaro/September 14/2020
مقالة وزير خارجية أميركا مايكل بومبيو المنشورة في الليفيغارو الفرنسية : على فرنسا أن تقف مع نفسها وليس مع طهران
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/90398/michael-r-pompeo-usa-secretary-of-state-le-figaro-france-should-stand-with-freedom-not-tehran-%d9%88%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7/

“No policy,” said Charles de Gaulle, “is worth anything outside of reality. That maxim guides the United States’ policy regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. We recognize the regime for what it is: the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, and the primary source of instability in the Middle East. I believe our friends in France perceive Tehran’s true nature, too. The question is whether France is willing to join us to stand up to Iran and secure peace and regional stability.
The brutality of the current regime is borne first by the Iranian people themselves. Just last year, security forces killed up to 1,500 peaceful protestors across Iran who took to the streets after a fuel price increase. Harassment, discrimination, and unjust imprisonment are common for members of minority religious communities, women who refuse to wear the hijab, homosexuals, and those who speak out against the regime.
My fellow Americans are also among Tehran’s victims. Iran-backed Hizballah killed hundreds of Americans (and many French citizens) in attacks in Lebanon in the 1980s, including in the 1983 Beirut Marine barracks bombings. Nineteen more Americans died when Hizballah bombed the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in 1996. And more than 600 American servicemembers were killed by Iranian-backed militants in the course of the second Iraq war. Today Tehran is holding three Americans hostage.
Yet Iran’s spillage of American blood is only part of a larger history of Iranian malign activity in the Middle East. In 2015, free nations hoped the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would end the regime’s malign behavior – and especially its illicit nuclear activities. They hoped that bolstering Iran economically would tamp down the regime’s lawless violence.
Far from joining the community of nations, Iran reacted to the West’s appeasement with more bloodshed and defiance. It was Iranian missiles that struck Saudi oil facilities, and Iranian mines that detonated on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf last year. In Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi rebels are fueling one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Iran-backed Shia militias like Kata’ib Hizballah choke Iraqi sovereignty and democracy. The sands of Syria are gorged with the blood of innocents thanks to Iranian forces, the Iran-backed Assad regime, and Hizballah.
And no country has groaned under the thumb of Iran quite like Lebanon. Iran’s proxy Hizballah has been the predominant political actor in that country for roughly three decades, and today in Beirut, corruption abounds, a broken financial and political system barely functions, and young Lebanese chant “Iran, get out!” in the streets.
Unfortunately, France refuses to designate all of Hizballah a terrorist organization, as other European nations have done, and has restrained EU progress on that same action. Instead, Paris maintains the fiction that there is a “political wing” of Hizballah, when all of it is controlled by a single terrorist, Hassan Nasrallah. I share the frustration of the 27 French public figures who recently called for France to make this designation in a joint letter to this publication.
Here are the facts: With the JCPOA in place, Iran’s military budget skyrocketed, and Iranian-backed militias and terrorists had more money to kill and entrench themselves across the Middle East. Iran has built up the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, and it has violated multiple nuclear-related provisions of the agreement. The skepticism that many French leaders had of the deal during negotiations now looks more justified than ever.
President Trump understands that only maximum pressure on the regime, not appeasement, can induce the changes in behavior we all seek. That’s why the U.S. has levied unprecedented economic sanctions on the regime, and restored military deterrence against it, most prominently by removing Qasem Soleimani from the battlefield.
Our campaign also means making sure Iran cannot buy or sell conventional weapons – main battle tanks, combat jets, missiles, and so on. That’s what the UN Security Council did by applying arms transfer restrictions on Iran for the last 13 years. But the authors of the JCPOA made a terrible mistake in putting an expiration date on them: October 18th of this year.
The effects of a lifted embargo are clear: The world’s foremost state sponsor of terror will supply arms to terrorists and tyrants. Mideast shipping and energy infrastructure – so critical to European and other international economies – will be under even greater threat. And the region’s people will be exposed to yet more suffering at the hands of the Ayatollahs.
Rarely have such dangerous developments been so preventable. But on August 14, France, along with the UK and Germany, failed to support the United States’ resolution to renew the arms embargo introduced at the Security Council.
Extending the embargo would have served the Security Council’s mission of “the maintenance of international peace and security,” transatlantic cooperation, and multilateralism more broadly. So why didn’t our European friends support the reasonable proposal that was offered, or at least offer an alternative? Why did they affirm the dangers of the embargo expiring to me in private, but take no action publicly?
On the policy front, the problem is fear. Our European allies fear that if they hold Iran accountable for its destabilizing behavior, Iran will violate the deal even more in response. This strategy of appeasement does nothing but play into Iran’s grand strategy. It’s a successful campaign of diplomatic extortion, crafted by my predecessor, Secretary Kerry.
Political calculations also play into Europe’s stance, where several leaders refuse to take action until after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. This cynical gambit regards Iran’s maiming and murdering as acceptable collateral damage, and lamentably sees Washington as more dangerous to the world than Tehran. I wonder if the residents of Beirut, or Riyadh, or Jerusalem – the cities most at risk from Iran – would agree? How could France vote down the arms embargo one week, and President Macron meet with a senior Hizballah official in Beirut the next?
On August 20, I invoked the United States’ authority to restore virtually all UN sanctions on Iran that were suspended under UN Security Council 2231. Restoring these sanctions was never the United States’ preferred path, but they will soon be here to stay. All countries are bound to enforce them; to do otherwise grossly undermines the Council’s authority and credibility, and could normalize selective enforcement of Security Council resolutions. What legitimate claims to being defenders of multilateralism will countries have then?
https://www.state.gov/france-should-stand-with-freedom-not-tehran/?fbclid=IwAR3RX0HcBWK0LCqbJ1Db8LHlYUj4QFWL0gQ24ecWuExuxfAZVHpRs-n9hwA

Black September,' Then And Now
Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI/September 15/2020
It is an interesting coincidence that the signing of a peace agreement by Arabian Gulf states – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – and Israel occurs in mid-September 2020, 50 years since "Black September," the beginning of the 1970-1971 war between Palestinian factions and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The latter event is an important one in Middle East and Palestinian/Jordanian history, but one that makes many uncomfortable – nowhere more so than in Jordan itself, with a mostly Palestinian population and even, since 1999, a Palestinian queen.
"Stop Fascism in Jordan" – PFLP-GC Political Poster (Circa 1970)
Following the loss of the West Bank in the 1967 Six-Day War, Jordan became even more of a safe haven than before for Palestinian fedayeen groups to launch cross-border attacks into Israel-held territories. The PLO grew powerful over time, becoming a heavily armed state within a state, supported by Nasser's Egypt and Baathist Iraq, flaunting its power in Jordan's cities, refugee camps, and bases for guerrilla operations. Even before "Black September," bloody clashes claimed many lives, including that of U.S. Army Attaché Major Robert P. Perry, killed in his Amman home by Palestinian guerrillas.[1] Repeated humiliations of the Jordanian state by the Palestinian leadership included even a failed assassination attempt against Jordan's King Hussein.[2]
Despite repeated efforts at appeasement by King Hussein,[3] open war broke out in September. As the king unleashed his army against PLO-held parts of Amman, Syrian-controlled units of the Palestinian Liberation Army (PLA) intervened and declared Jordan's second city, Irbid, a "liberated zone." With no air cover provided by Syrian Defense Minister Hafez Al-Assad, the Jordanians were able to drive these troops off. An Iraqi threat to intervene directly on the side of the Palestinians never materialized. Both the U.S. and Israel had contingency plans to intervene should Hussein and his regime be overthrown.
Although the Jordanians would triumph by summer 1971, it was a close-run thing that could have easily gone another way. Most Arab leaders' sympathies lay very much with the Palestinian side, and they openly mocked the Jordanian king.[4] The Jordanians were defamed in the Arab press of the day as fascists, and accused of having killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. And, of course, Yasser Arafat's Fatah would create the terror group Black September as a cutout to carry out bloody acts of violence in the Middle East and Europe.[5]
After its Jordanian defeat, the PLO would move to Lebanon, where a few years later it would play a key role in igniting the Lebanese Civil War and triggering Syrian military intervention and then decades of occupation in Lebanon. One of the other consequences of Black September was the rise of an anti-Palestinian East Bank Jordanian identity, which survives to this day.[6]
2017 Monument to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in Qalqilya, Palestinian territories
Meanwhile, the "cause of Palestine" would be the flag of convenience and bloody shirt for every rogue and genocidal maniac in the region – Assad father and son, Saddam, Qaddafi, Khomeini, Khamenei, Erdogan and others. The Palestinian leadership would use and be used by all of them. Assad (using his Lebanese and Palestinian proxies, especially Amal) would kill more Palestinians during the "War of the Camps" in Lebanon in 1985-1988 than were killed by the Lebanese forces at Sabra and Shatila.[7] The PLO itself would support Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, and even send fighters to Uganda in 1979 to try to prevent Idi Amin from falling to Tanzanian forces.[8]
That same cause of Palestine would be cynically used to this day. Hizbullah plunged Lebanon into war with Israel in 2006 for the sake of "resistance" against Israel. And Hizbullah and Iran would intervene directly in Assad's genocidal repression inside Syria, wrapped in the cloak of resistance for the sake of the Palestinians. When Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh visited a Lebanese refugee camp in September 2020, his travel was facilitated by supporters Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and Hizbullah, and Haniyeh boasted of Hamas rockets being able to reach Tel Aviv from Hamas-ruled Gaza.[9]
Despite that show of force by Haniyeh, and vociferous denunciations by the PLO of Arab states "normalizing" with Israel, the region is changing. The change is not so much about Israel but about the Arab region and its neighbors as a whole. The aggressive and intrusive non-Arab powers in the region today are not Israel but Turkey and Iran. That may not trouble the Palestinian leadership, comfortably ensconced in Ramallah, but is of immediate and serious concern to states in the line of fire. An Iran which boasts of controlling four Arab capitals is matched by the feverish neo-Ottoman dreams of the Turkish strongman, who is currently occupying parts of Syria, shelling Iraq, and sending expeditionary forces to Libya and Qatar.
Aside from predatory actions by Ankara and Tehran, the Arab world faces a whole host of urgent socio-economic problems which now appear to dwarf the cause of Palestine: a hot, thirsty, angry, poor, and mostly unemployed region looks for answers and solutions from regimes more skilled in repression and duplicity than in governance. Palestine may be a popular issue in some quarters, a necessary name check, but its existence or absence will not bring water or jobs to the region.
Arab regimes could do what they have always done – wrap themselves in this cause, posture and deceive and try to buy time – or they could look at the region coolly and logically though the lens of their own pressing national interests. This is what the UAE and Bahrain, and perhaps others, are doing, calculating how an alliance with the least threatening and most technologically and militarily advanced of three major rising non-Arab powers in the region can enhance their security and wellbeing in an extremely unstable region. This is common sense, no doubt encouraged by American diplomacy. Both states have already been threatened in detail by Turkey and Iran and by their Islamist proxies well before there was an agreement with Israel. They could have opted for the usual hypocrisy, but chose a braver path. They are betting on a real, normal "warm" peace rather than the cold peace with Israel practiced by the regimes in Egypt and Jordan.
For the corrupt and feckless Palestinian political leadership, and for a host of Western pundits and think tankers who have made a lucrative career on the "peace process," recent events have come like a bucket of ice-cold water. It is not that Palestine is not important, but that rather than falsely and dishonestly placing it on some sort of artificial pedestal, an increasing number of states in the region are seeing it as one of many issues, and for most players not the most pressing one.
As with any political development, there is a possibility for change and course correction, even from the Palestinian side, as much as there is a danger of falling back into past follies from Ramallah's aging revolutionaries.[10] Despite the caterwauling from the PLO leadership and threats from the usual regional suspects, for many this September seems less black than the one 50 years ago, and these modest, positive steps towards peace and dialogue could bear fruit. Certainly, the other path tried over the past five decades has yielded little.
[1] Nytimes.com/1970/06/11/archives/us-aide-is-slain-in-amman-battle-guerrillas-kill-army-attache.html, June 11. 1970.
[2] Bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/9/newsid_4461000/4461735.stm, June 9, 1970.
[3] Youtube.com/watch?v=_blSDX_S6T0, uploaded March 30, 2017.
[4] Youtube.com/watch?v=AbEPZftIp34, uploaded December 26, 2014.
[5] Youtube.com/watch?v=MF4AYcS337w, uploaded July 21, 2015.
6] ience.com/content/journals/10.5339/messa.2015.12;jsessionid=0L3etBy_1O92Pw5Sv1OAIWoU.hbkuplive-10-240-9-176, March 18, 2015.
[7] Youtube.com/watch?v=3P3HgJz-veo, uploaded June 1, 2017.
[8] Al-akhbar.com/Opinion/226891, September 15, 2020.
[9] Youtube.com/watch?v=TCPoPR52qtw, September 7, 2020.
[10] MEMRI TV Clip No. 8272, PA Presidential Advisor Nabil Shaath: We Have A Right To Total Confrontation With Israel, We Are Prepared For Intifada, September 4, 2020.

The 3 Regional Winds Blowing over the Middle East
Eyad Abu Shakra//Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2020
If we are to depict the current situation in the Arab Near East, perhaps the best description would be a boat beaten by strong winds and high seas.
Behind this grim picture stand two worrying factors: The first is the quality of regional and global leaders involved with the region’s affairs. The second is the pressing time element influencing decision makers at every level, ranging from the US elections to the Chinese and Russian ambitions, as well as Covid-19 with all its worldwide repercussions. Today, in Lebanon, for example, there are two well-known initiatives dealing with internal crises in the aftermath of the Beirut port disaster on August 4. Tey are the French initiative presented by President Emmanuel Macron during his two visits to Beirut, and the American initiative carried to the Lebanese by the assistant secretaries of state David Hale and David Schenker.
Throughout the last couple of weeks, a lot has been said about how far or close the two initiatives are, and whether the differences are purely “tactical” or “strategic” and “serious” in their approaches to the future of Lebanon and the region; and be they what they may, neither side is willing to make them clear in the runup to the US elections. So far, and thanks to its old “mandatory” and religious ties with Lebanon’s Christians, and its “good” relations with Iran, France seems to think that it can carry out a policy of “carrot and stick” with the local players in Iran’s dominated Lebanon. Indeed, through damaging leaks, open admonition and threats of sanctions and halt of all form of aid, France has managed to silence the Lebanese players, and forced on them someone it trusts to form the next cabinet.
As for the American initiative, and following a tour of “listening” made by Mr. Hale shortly after the port disaster, and just after President Macron’s second visit, Mr. Schenker took the unusual step of boycotting the Lebanese leaders, and talking instead to the activists and rebellious politicians, whether through resignation from parliament or their adoption of the civil society’s uprising.
Evidently, the role of Hezbollah – indeed, Iran’s regional project – has been the major open difference between the French and American approaches. For while Paris views Hezbollah as a Lebanese political and sectarian “ingredient” that must not be ostracized or kept out of the country’s government, Washington regards it as a “terrorist organization” that has imposed itself thanks to its arsenal on its own community, as well as the Lebanese population and political system.
From this standpoint it becomes possible to see Paris’ considerations, as well as other European capitals, that continue to support the Iranian nuclear deal, or JCPOA, despite their full knowledge of the regional dangers of Iran’s expansionist project and its repercussions.
Among the abovementioned French considerations are the following:
1- Iran can be a regional political and strategic partner, in addition of being a promising consumer market and economic powerhouse; more so after the emergence the Turkish threat in the eastern Mediterranean.
2- Despite the broad and old common understanding between the US and the West European powers, the main interests of President Donald Trump seem a bit different from his European allies’ priorities and interests. In fact, US and European officials have recently been talking about the worry that Trump may be thinking of withdrawing from NATO if re-elected next November.
On the other hand, although the relations between West European powers and Israel are quite good, the former do not believe that Israel – particularly, the Likud – must be the indispensable channel to good relations with Arab and non-Arab Middle Eastern countries, as seems to be the case with President Trump. But in any case, the Israeli right does not look concerned about or unhappy with Iran’s expansionist project, because it is diluting old Arab animosity towards Israel, and diverting it towards the Iranian threat from the east. This is particularly the case with the Gulf countries that have always been apprehensive of Iranian ambitions since the days of the Shah. Meanwhile, there is a mirror-image situation, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and their local arms occupy, murder and destroy in their “occupation-intended” expansion inside Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and even Yemen under the pretext of “liberating Palestine”. Thus, in what looks like a tacit agreement, Iran’s “hawks” have been the main beneficiaries from the Likud’s policies of settlement building and annexation under Benjamin Netanyahu.
Finally, there is the issue of Turkey. Resurrecting the “threat” of ISIS and other Sunni extremist organizations has become a valuable tool for Tehran’s project in Lebanon, especially after proving its huge benefits in Syria and Iraq with Russian blessings, and tacit American and Israeli approval.
At the moment, it is thought that certain intelligence agencies are “manufacturing” and sponsoring such extremist gangs of brainwashed and marginal hardliners, be they Lebanese or Palestinian and Syrian refugees. The aim(s) may be:
1- “Demonizing” the Sunnis at a time when Turkey is flexing its muscles and backing Islamist hardliners in the eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean and Libya.
2- Convincing naïve Lebanese that Hezbollah must keep its arms, and that Michel Aoun is going into an “alliance of minorities” with the pro-Iran militia was a wise decision.
3- Facilitating the escape of Hezbollah and its Christian ally (Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement) from facing justice and answering questions about the Beirut port disaster, as well as preoccupy the Lebanese people with issues of internal security, and shifting their eyes away from Hezbollah’s illegitimate arms that has been to a large extent responsible for covering up corruption and threatening the incorruptible.
Turkey’s ambition, which is now for all to see, in northern Syria, northern Iraq and western Libya, is being brandished more than ever since the end of WWI. Erdogan is truly being portrayed as a potential protector of the Sunnis against Iranian aggressive expansionism and Christian calls for “neutrality”.
Actually, in the few days after the Beirut disaster, there were shy calls to transfer shipping activities from the badly hit Beirut port to the port of Tripoli. However, they were all quashed, claiming that Lebanon’s second largest city, and major Sunni population center was a potential Turkish stronghold. Later, the killing of three young men in a Christian north Lebanon village was also linked with pro-Turkey “Islamists”.
These “intersecting” developments look and sound weird, but they should not be unexpected between now and the US elections in November.

It’s Been a Bad Year to Be a Tourist Magnet
Justin Fox/Bloomberg/September, 15/2020
Like a lot of countries in East and Southeast Asia, Thailand has done a pretty spectacular job of controlling the coronavirus pandemic. There have been just 3,446 confirmed cases of the disease, and 58 deaths, in a country of nearly 70 million inhabitants. Its per-capita Covid-19 death toll is less than one-seven-hundredth that of the US.This hasn’t spared Thailand from an economic downturn that appears to be significantly worse than the one facing its neighbors, or the US. That’s mainly because Thailand’s economy depends heavily on tourists from abroad, whom it has prevented from entering the country since early in the pandemic and is only now beginning to allow back in under extremely restrictive conditions. In a recent analysis of the Covid-19 tourism bust’s impact on the current-account balances of 52 countries, the International Monetary Fund concluded that Thailand will be hit the hardest. 1 Here are the IMF’s estimates for 15 of those countries.
The current account measures trade in goods and services plus cash transfers. The countries with the biggest negative numbers in the above chart normally export a lot more tourism services than they import, and Covid-19 has sharply reduced that tourism-trade surplus. Others taking especially big hits include Greece, at -5.9% of gross domestic product, Portugal,-4.45%, Morocco, -3.64%, and Costa Rica, -3.38%.
Thinking of tourism in terms of trade balances can be a little confusing at first. Countries that bring in more tourists than they send abroad are actually exporting more tourism services than they import, and thus running a tourism surplus. Countries that send huge numbers of people abroad in search of sun and other attractions and welcome smaller numbers of visitors are net importers of tourism. 2 By halting or slowing travel, the pandemic has thus reduced their tourism trade deficits.
As my fellow Bloomberg Opinion columnist Noah Smith explained a few years ago in response to some silly things said by Trump administration trade adviser Peter Navarro, the fact that trade deficits show up as negative numbers in GDP accounting and surpluses as positive does not necessarily mean that reducing the former or increasing the latter will increase growth. But in this case the short-term economic impacts are probably more or less as described in the chart. Having to do without the spending of foreign tourists is in fact sharply reducing Thailand’s GDP. And in Norway, having its inhabitants spend money at home that otherwise would have been spent in Marbella or Phuket is probably boosting GDP somewhat — albeit in the face of lots of other forces, such as the fall in oil prices, that have driven it downward.
In Europe, where wealthier northern countries usually send lots more tourists to poorer southern countries than they get back in return, this means the pandemic has exacerbated the continent’s north-south economic imbalances. The 750-billion-euro ($885 billion) stimulus package that the European Union agreed to in June, which delivers its biggest benefits to Italy and Spain, thus seems like the right kind of response, if perhaps not a big enough one.
The US is not poor or particularly southern, but it too is among the countries that get more money from foreign visitors than their residents spend abroad.

The Coronavirus is Mutating, and that’s Fine (So Far)
Edward Holmes/The New York Times/September, 15/2020
No doubt you have read the recent headlines about patients who recovered from Covid-19 only to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 again later — purportedly by a different “strain” of the virus.
In late August came news alerts about the world’s first “documented” or “confirmed” case of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a man from Hong Kong, diagnosed in March, had contracted “a new virus” circulating in Western Europe this summer. The very next day, news broke that two people in Europe also appeared to have been reinfected.
After that, it was stories about the first American case of the kind — involving a patient in Nevada said to have suffered worse symptoms the second time around. The preprint study (not peer-reviewed) on which those reports were based seems to no longer be available.
All this talk about new, perhaps more virulent, forms of SARS-CoV-2 is unnecessarily sparking fear and sowing confusion.
Let’s consider the evidence and the science.
For one thing, isolated cases of reinfection also happen with other viruses. That fact is not necessarily alarming. Reinfection usually tells us something only about how the human immune system works. It is not, on the face of it, evidence that a virus has mutated in ways that make it more dangerous.
For another thing, viruses routinely mutate — and most of these changes are bad for the virus or even fatal, according to some studies. (A minority of mutations are neutral, and only a tiny minority beneficial.) The word “mutation” may sound ominous, but it is a humdrum fact of viral life and its implications most often aren’t nefarious for humans.
And yes, SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, too. So what?
The real question is this: Has it become more virulent or more infectious than it was when it was first detected in Wuhan, central China, in December? The evidence suggests that it has not.
Like the viruses that give us influenza or measles, SARS-CoV-2 has a genetic code made up of RNA, or ribonucleic acid. But RNA is highly mutable, and since SARS-CoV-2 infects us by using our body’s cells to replicate itself again and again, every time its genome is copied, an error might creep in.
Most mutations are quickly lost, either by chance or because they damage some part of the virus’s main functions. Only a small proportion end up spreading widely or lasting. Mutation may be the fuel of evolution but, especially for an RNA virus, it also is just business as usual.
RNA viruses tend to evolve rapidly — about a million times faster than human genes. Yet if SARS-CoV-2 stands out among them, it is for evolving more slowly than many: about five times less rapidly than the influenza viruses, for example.
According to Nextstrain, an open-source project that tracks the evolution of pathogens in real time, and other sources, SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating an average of about two mutations per month — which means that the forms of the virus circulating today are only about 15 mutations or so different from the first version traced to the outbreak in Wuhan.
This is a tiny number considering that the SARS-CoV-2’s genome is about 30,000 nucleotides long. And it means, too, that the versions of the virus today are roughly 99.95 percent the same as the Wuhan original. For an RNA virus, SARS-CoV-2 is in the slow lane of evolution.
(So talk about SARS-CoV-2 having developed into however many different “strains” is misleading. Scientists tend to reserve the word for versions of a virus that differ in major biological ways. SARS-CoV-2’s different forms are very similar; better to call them “variants.”)
The coronavirus’s sluggish pace of mutation is good news for us: A virus that evolved more rapidly would have a greater chance of outrunning any vaccines or drugs developed to counter it.
That said, have even the small mutations so far changed SARS-CoV-2 in any important ways?
For example, has it become more deadly?
To my knowledge, there is to date no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has become more virulent or more lethal — nor, for that matter, that it has become less so.
For example, a recent preprint paper (not yet peer-reviewed) by Erik Volz, of the faculty of medicine at Imperial College in London, and numerous colleagues at other institutions — including members of the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium — which analyzed 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in the United Kingdom, found that one particular mutation in the virus, known as D614G, had not increased mortality in patients.
What about infectivity?
There has been much discussion over whether the D614G mutation — which affects the so-called spike protein of the virus — has made SARS-CoV-2 more infectious.
The spike protein sits on the surface of the coronavirus, and it matters because it’s the part of the virus that attaches to the host’s cells. “D614G” is shorthand for a change at position 614 of the spike protein, from an aspartic acid (D) to a glycine amino acid (G). (The technical literature refers to “D614” as the earlier configuration and “G614” as the later one.)
The D614G mutation, which probably initially arose in China, first appeared to become more and more frequent in the outbreak in northern Italy in February. The G614 form of the virus has since spread all over the world and has become the dominant variant.
The D614G mutation does seem to have increased the infectivity of the coronavirus — at least in cells grown in laboratories, according to a recent paper by the computational biologist Bette Korber and others published in the journal Cell.
Apparently based partly on this and other studies, health authorities in various countries have claimed that the G614 form of the coronavirus may be 10 times more infectious than the version first detected in Wuhan.
But as some epidemiologists have warned, it is difficult, not to mention unwise, to extrapolate from lab results to explain how the virus actually spreads in a real population.
I do not believe that the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is what’s driving the virus’s continued spread. The coronavirus remains good at propagating itself because most of us still are susceptible to it; we are not immune, and it can still find new hosts to infect relatively easily.
In the same issue of Cell that published the Korber paper, the viral epidemiologist Nathan Grubaugh and colleagues argued that the “increase in the frequency of G614 could be explained by chance and the epidemiology of the pandemic.”
I agree.
In other words: The next time you compare different outbreaks and start wondering or worrying about the variations, assume first that those variations have to do with conditions on the ground, rather than anything about the virus itself, like a new mutation.
Consider, for example, the wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections that has hit Australia since June. While there has been a major outbreak in the state of Victoria (peaking at around 700 cases per day), the one in the state of New South Wales has been minor so far (with a daily case count usually around 10) — yet both have been caused by the same variant of the coronavirus, the one with the D614G mutation.
The precise reasons for these differences are still being investigated, but one may be, simply, that because the outbreak hit Victoria first, the health authorities of New South Wales had more time to prepare.
Mortality rates, too, differ between locations, and in some places the virus may appear to kill more people. But again, these variations probably say less about the virus than about differences in how the disease is being treated, or where the virus has spread mostly among vulnerable populations, like people in nursing homes.
What’s more, even if the D614G mutation does increase the virus’s infectivity in humans, that fact probably doesn’t have any major implications for our prospects of developing an effective vaccine. The mutation does affect the spike protein, but not the part of it that the neutralizing antibodies of the human immune system target when the body defends itself against infection.
Viruses mutate constantly; SARS-CoV-2 is no different. And it’s essential that we continue to monitor when and how, and with what effects, it is evolving.
Whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more infectious or more deadly are important questions, all the more so because it doesn’t look like this virus will be eradicated any time soon. More likely, it will become a pathogen endemic in humans, as everyday as influenza.
For now, though, SARS-CoV-2 essentially is the same virus that emerged in December. Sure, it has mutated, but not, so far, in ways that should change how scientists think about how to tackle it — and not in ways that should worry you.
Edward Holmes is an evolutionary virologist at the University of Sydney.