English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 14/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.september14.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of
wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it
dies, it bears much fruit
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
John 12/20-28/:”Among those who went up to worship at the festival were some
Greeks. They came to Philip, who was from Bethsaida in Galilee, and said to him,
‘Sir, we wish to see Jesus.’Philip went and told Andrew; then Andrew and Philip
went and told Jesus. Jesus answered them, ‘The hour has come for the Son of Man
to be glorified. Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the
earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much
fruit. Those who love their life lose it, and those who hate their life in this
world will keep it for eternal life.Whoever serves me must follow me, and where
I am, there will my servant be also. Whoever serves me, the Father will honour.
‘Now my soul is troubled. And what should I say “Father, save me from this
hour”? No, it is for this reason that I have come to this hour. Father, glorify
your name.’ Then a voice came from heaven, ‘I have glorified it, and I will
glorify it again.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on September 13-14/2020
Hariri Hospital: 10 recoveries registered, raising the
total number to 394
Health Ministry: 641 new Corona cases
Ninety peacekeepers contract Covid-19 in Lebanon
Rahi during Beirut Port martyrs' 40-day memorial: For a neutral, independent
international investigation because there is no sovereignty without justice
U.S. Welcomes Serbia's Intention to Label Hizbullah as 'Terrorist'
US welcomes Serbia’s move to designate Hezbollah terrorist organization
Hezbollah’s links with Irish terror group exposed
Berri's Press Office: We informed the PM-designate of our wish not to partake in
the government according to the laid foundations
Bassil Says Some Insisting on Forming Govt. 'without Consultations with Anyone'
Bassil receives two calls from Macron, Adib
Fakhoury's U.S.-Based Family Starts Foundation
EU Wants 'Credible' Lebanon Govt. before More Blast Aid
Lebanon’s new domestic worker contract: end to ‘kafala slavery’?
Abi Ramia hosts a luncheon in honor of French Ambassador: You are appreciated by
all parties because you dealt objectively with everyone
Hawat: Lebanon is before decisive hours!
How Lebanon can chart a new path forward/Axel von Trotsenburg/Arab
News/September 13/2020
Carlos Ghosn's ex-Aide Kelly Goes on Trial
Q&A: What to Expect from Trial of Ghosn's ex-Aide Kelly
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 13-14/2020
Pompeo in Cyprus Says U.S. 'Deeply Concerned' over
Turkey Energy Search
Pompeo Condemns 'Vicious' Execution of Wrestler in Iran
UAE, US sign agreement to enhance diplomatic immunity for consular staff
Iran says 1,044 centrifuges active at Fordow uranium enrichment plant
Top Iraq cleric al-Sistani backs early election after UN meeting
Greek PM Announces Arms Purchases as Turkey Tension Rises
Turkish survey ship leaves contested waters in eastern Mediterranean
Afghan forces, Taliban continue to clash even as peace talks start
Bahrain is first Shiite-majority nation to establish ties with Israel
Hamas Ready for ‘Humanitarian’ Deal with Israel
At Afghan Peace Talks, the Hard Work Begins
Libya’s Haftar committed to ending oil blockade, US says
Rival Libya factions agree criteria for key posts during Morocco talks
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 13-14/2020
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic
Reaction/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/September 13/2020
Bahrain FM to Asharq Al-Awsat: Relations with Israel Do Not Undermine Commitment
to Peace Initiative/Manama - Merza al-Khuwaldi/Asharq Al Awsat/September 13/2020
Why Iran is bent on escalating tensions in the Gulf/Raghida Dergham/The
National/September 13/2020
The coming weeks are dangerous and have an Iranian-Chinese flavor/Raghida
Dergham/September 13/2020
How Donald Trump can still win re-election/Hussein Ibish/The National/September
13/2020
Why Trump’s Iraq drawdown is a gift to Iran and Daesh/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/September 13/2020
Enough process, what we need is peace/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/September
13/2020
Ties with Israel...Bahrain Knows What's Best for Itself/Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq
Al Awsat/September 13/2020
We Got the Money, Where To Invest It?/Najib Saab/Asharq Al Awsat/September
13/2020
Negotiating with Turkey will worsen the eastern Mediterranean crisis/Raman
Ghavami/Al Arabiya/September 13/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 13-14/2020
Hariri Hospital: 10 recoveries registered, raising the
total number to 394
NNA/September 13/2020
The Rafic Hariri University Hospital, in its daily report on the latest COVID-19
developments, indicated Sunday that that the number of tests conducted inside
its laboratories during the past 24 hours reached 340.
It added that 82 infected patients are currently receiving follow-up treatment
inside the hospital, while the number of suspected cases during the past 24
hours reached 23. The report also announced the recovery of 10 patients at the
hospital during the past 24 hours, thus bringing the cumulative number of
hospital recoveries to-date to 394 cases.
Health Ministry: 641 new Corona cases
NNA/September 13/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, Sunday, the registration of 641 new
Coronavirus cases, thus raising the cumulative number to-date since February 21
to 24,310. It added that 2 death cases have been reported during the past 24
hours.
Ninety peacekeepers contract Covid-19 in Lebanon
The National/September 13/2020
Ninety UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon have tested positive for the novel
coronavirus, a spokesman for the UNIFIL force said on Sunday. The confirmed
cases were transferred to a special UNIFIL facility equipped to deal with
Covid-19 cases, UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti said in a statement. He said 88
of those infected belonged to the same contingent, but he did not specify the
nationalities of the 90 peacekeepers. "We have undertaken robust contact
tracing, and applied a thorough regime of testing and isolation" to prevent a
larger outbreak, he said. Some 45 countries contribute peacekeepers to UNIFIL,
which was set up in 1978 to patrol the border between Lebanon and Israel which
are technically at war. In August, the UN extended the peace mission's mandate
by one year but reduced the force's troop capacity from 15,000 to 13,000. Mr
Tenenti said that UNIFIL's operations along the Lebanon-Israel border are not
affected by the new virus cases. Lebanon has seen a spike in the number of
confirmed coronavirus cases since an August 4 explosion ripped through the
Beirut port, killing more than 190 people and ravaging swathes of the capital.
The small Mediterranean country has recorded a total of 23,669 Covid-19 cases,
including 239 deaths since an outbreak began in February. - AFP
Rahi during Beirut Port martyrs' 40-day memorial:
For a neutral, independent international investigation because there is no
sovereignty without justice
NNA/September 13/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Butros al-Rahi, reiterated Sunday the need
for a "neutral and independent international investigation, for there can be no
sovereignty without justice."
"If the Lebanese authorities, for political reasons, refuse the international
investigation, then the United Nations must impose it, because what happened is
close to a crime against humanity," underlined the Patriarch.
"If killing a people, destroying a capital, and erasing a heritage do not
together constitute a crime against humanity, then what is the gravest crime?"
he questioned. Al-Rahi's words came in his religious sermon during the 40-day
memorial service dedicated to the Beirut Port fallen martyrs held this morning.
The Mass was attended by Papal Ambassador to Lebanon Joseph Spiteri, a group of
bishops, heads of congregations, the families of the victims and various social,
religious and cultural dignitaries. The Patriarch considered that the time has
come to eliminate the conspiracy against Beirut, Lebanon and the Lebanese, "this
country that has the model and message in its Arab environment, which is
distinguished by the system of coexistence, cultural and religious pluralism,
democracy based on public liberties and human rights, cultural and commercial
openness to countries, and active and necessary neutrality in this Arab and
eastern surrounding, so that Lebanon would be a place of meeting and dialogue
for all." "With its active neutrality, Lebanon is a necessity for this
environment, a source of vibrant life for it and a decent life for its people,"
al-Rahi emphasized.
"Today we commemorate the 40-day memorial of the victims of the Beirut Port
explosion, the dead, wounded, the missing, the homeless, and those afflicted
with their homes, institutions and shops, in addition to the massive destruction
of hospitals, places of worship, schools, universities, archdiocese, hotels,
restaurants and other public and private institutions," he said. Al-Rahi raised
prayers to the Lord Almighty to rest the souls of the martyrs in peace, and
asked for a speedy recovery for the injured and for a quick remedy for all the
material damages resulting from this tragic explosion. The Patriarch also
expressed a word of appreciation to "all those who extended a generous helping
hand by volunteering and providing assistance," and the friendly and brotherly
countries that provided humanitarian aid to those afflicted.
U.S. Welcomes Serbia's Intention to Label Hizbullah as 'Terrorist'
Naharnet/September 13/2020
Serbia’s announcement that it will designate Hizbullah as “a terrorist
organization in its entirety” is another significant step limiting “this Iranian
backed terrorist group’s ability to operate in Europe,” the U.S. said on
Sunday.“This important action was announced as part of the historic commitments
President (Donald) Trump secured on a wide range of economic normalization
issues between Serbia and Kosovo, coupled with the steps both nations are taking
to help achieve peace in the Middle East,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
said in a statement. “There is no doubt that the dominoes are falling on
Hizbullah’s European operations, where it has continued to plot terrorist
attacks, procure military technology, and raise much needed funding. Recent
actions by Germany and Lithuania against Hizbullah follow those taken last year
by the United Kingdom and Kosovo,” he added. He also said that the United States
continues to call on the European Union and European nations to “designate or
ban Hizbullah in its entirety, and recognize the reality that it is a terrorist
organization root and branch with no distinction between its so-called
‘military’ and ‘political’ wings.” “We urge all countries in Europe and
elsewhere to take whatever action they can to prevent Hizbullah operatives,
recruiters, and financiers from operating on their territories,” Pompeo went on
to say. The statement comes days after Washington slapped sanctions on two
Lebanese former ministers for allegedly aiding Hizbullah carry out illicit
activities.
US welcomes Serbia’s move to designate Hezbollah
terrorist organization
Arab News/September 13/2020
LONDON: The US on Sunday welcomed Serbia’s announcement that it would designate
Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.The announcement is “another significant
step limiting this Iranian backed terrorist group’s ability to operate in
Europe,” a State Department statement said. Serbia’s announcement concerning the
Iran-backed militant group came as part of a Trump-led initiative to normalize
economic relations between former foes Kosovo and Serbia. “There is no doubt
that the dominoes are falling on Hezbollah’s European operations, where it has
continued to plot terrorist attacks, procure military technology, and raise much
needed funding,” the statement said. Serbia follows the lead of Germany and
Lithuania who declared the movement a terrorist organisation in its entirety
this year in April and August respectively. “We urge all countries in Europe and
elsewhere to take whatever action they can to prevent Hezbollah operatives,
recruiters, and financiers from operating on their territories,” the statement
added.
Hezbollah’s links with Irish terror group
exposed
Arab News/September 13/2020
LONDON: Hezbollah provided the New IRA with finances and shipments of weapons,
according to an undercover agent who infiltrated the Irish terror group.Former
British secret service operative Denis McFadden made the assessment after spying
on the New IRA from within for more than 20 years. Irish and British security
services suspect that the New IRA’s links with Iran-backed Hezbollah may have
led to the import of arms including mortars and assault rifles. MI5 agent
McFadden is now in witness protection after his work led to the arrest of 10
people in Northern Ireland on terrorism-related charges. His operation found
that Hezbollah and the New IRA opened communications around 2017. Members of the
New IRA then traveled to Lebanon in 2018 to meet with Hezbollah representatives,
where British security services suspect they procured the weapons. Saoradh, the
political wing of the New IRA, has been a long-time supporter of Iran,
Hezbollah’s key international ally and patron. In the aftermath of the US
killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January this year, Saoradh
representatives signed a book of condolences at the Iranian Embassy in
Dublin.Hezbollah is known to have fostered relationships with terrorist
organizations and criminal groups across the Middle East and further afield. The
Counter Extremism Project notes Hezbollah’s extensive cooperation over the
smuggling of “people and contraband” into the US with Mexican drug cartels, and
their profiting off the Colombian cocaine trade. Hezbollah also maintained a
relationship with Spanish terror group Eta until it was disbanded.
Berri's Press Office: We informed the PM-designate of
our wish not to partake in the government according to the laid foundations
NNASeptember 13/2020
House Speaker Nabih Berri's Press Office issued a statement on Sunday,
indicating that "the House Speaker has informed the Prime Minister-designate
that his Movement will not be participating in the next government on the
grounds it is based upon, while expressing readiness for maximum cooperation in
all that is necessary for Lebanon's stability and finances, and to undertake
reforms and save its economy." "The problem is not with the French, but rather
it is internal and from within," the statement said, citing the reasons for the
decision not to partake in the upcoming cabinet by stating that "a single
headline for the government of specialization was declared in exchange for the
absence of party loyalty, parliamentary affiliation, vetoes on ministries,
seeking outside power and failure to launch consultations."
Bassil Says Some Insisting on Forming Govt. 'without
Consultations with Anyone'
Naharnet/September 13/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Sunday decried that “a single
camp” is seeking to form the new government “without consultations” with the
other political parties, in an apparent reference to Prime Minister-designate
Mustafa Adib and his backers.
“Why is there insistence on the formation of a government by a single camp,
without consultations with anyone, under the slogan of expert, nonpartisan
(ministers)?” Bassil said at a press conference. “They’re saying, ‘Either the
government gets formed the way we want, or else the (French) initiative would
fail and the country would collapse,’” the FPM chief lamented. “How can
characteristics and names be specified by a single camp in the country although
it does not have the parliamentary majority? Is this how a parliamentary system
works in other countries?” Bassil asked, in an apparent jab at al-Mustaqbal
Movement and ex-PMs Najib Miqati, Tammam Salam and Fouad Saniora. Commenting on
Speaker Nabih Berri’s insistence on the allocation of the finance portfolio to a
Shiite figure, Bassil said “the Constitution is clear” and it does not allocate
a portfolio to “a certain sect.”“If the objective is to enshrine the third
(Shiite) signature (on important decrees), this would be an attempt at
tripartite power-sharing and we certainly reject it,” he added. Bassil, however,
noted that the FPM supports the principle of the rotation of ministerial
portfolios “but not reliance on foreign support to impose anything on each
other.”“We are not with the exploitation of a certain situation to break one
another,” he said. Bassil also pointed out that the FPM does not have “a desire
to take part in the government,” while stressing that it will “facilitate its
formation.” He also said that the FPM has an initiative that involves
“discussing the issue of Lebanon’s neutrality around a dialogue table”,
“speeding up the file of extracting gas and oil” and “demarcating land and
maritime borders.”
Bassil receives two calls from Macron, Adib
NNA/September 13/2020
Free Patriotic Movement Chief, MP Gebran Bassil, received a phone call this
evening from French President Emmanuel Macron, and another from the Prime
Minister-designate Mustapha Adib.
Fakhoury's U.S.-Based Family Starts Foundation
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 13/2020
The family of an American man who was jailed for months in Lebanon over
decadesold murder and torture charges that he always denied has started a
foundation in his name to help families of Americans held hostage overseas. Amer
Fakhoury, a Dover, New Hampshire, restaurant owner, died of cancer last month at
age 57, following his March release. His children told Seacoastonline.com that
the goal of the Amer Fakhoury Foundation is to honor their father and help fill
financial and advocacy gaps for people who have been "kidnapped" and their
families. "There are so many other people that are in my dad's shoes right now
we don't know about," said Macy Fakhoury, one of Amer Fakhoury's daughters. "So
many of them can be hidden or brushed under the table. ... We want to help these
people and we want to bring light to this injustice." The family is seeking
donations through a website and is applying for grants.Fakhoury was imprisoned
last September while visiting family in Lebanon. Lebanese officials alleged he
tortured prisoners in the 1990s at a prison run by the Israeli-backed South
Lebanon Army. Fakhoury's lawyer said he worked at the prison, but had no direct
contact with inmates and didn't torture anyone.
EU Wants 'Credible' Lebanon Govt. before More Blast Aid
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 13/2020
The European Union's commissioner for crisis management has called for the
urgent formation of a "credible" government in Lebanon before a second phase of
financial support for the crisis-hit country can be released. Janez Lenarcic
said the EU had mobilized 64 million euros ($79 million) for the emergency
response to a devastating port blast that killed more than 190 people and
wounded thousands in Beirut on August 4. The next round of funding would be for
reconstruction, he said, but warned it would have to go hand in hand with
reforms because the international community was not willing to support practices
"that led to financial collapse and economic crisis." The tragedy occurred when
hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer that had been left unattended in
a port warehouse exploded. It came as the Lebanese people were already reeling
from the country's worst economic crisis in decades and rekindled smoldering
rage over official neglect and a political class accused of corruption.The
government resigned in the wake of the disaster, but Lebanon has rejected an
international investigation, saying it would carry out its own probe aided by
foreign experts. "We need a credible government that enjoys the confidence of
the Lebanese people and is determined to take the country in the right
direction," Lenarcic told AFP after arriving in Lebanon on board a humanitarian
aid flight. "Lebanon's political class has to provide what people demand and
this is also what the international community expects. I'm talking about
governance, not only economic reforms. There has to be a change in the way this
place is governed," he said. Lebanon's worst economic crunch since the 1975-1990
war has seen the local currency plummet against the U.S. dollar and poverty
double to more than half of the population. The government has blamed central
bank governor Riad Salameh for the crisis, though he has rejected all charges.
Lenarcic said reaching an agreement with the IMF should also be an early
priority for the next government. The IMF said on Thursday it was ready to
"redouble its efforts" to help Lebanon "overcome the social and economic crisis"
once a new government was in place. "The EU commission supports reaching an
agreement with the IMF because that would unlock substantial resources that
Lebanon desperately needs to revive its economy," Lenarcic said. Referring to
Hizbullah, he said it was a "reality in Lebanon," adding that "we would like to
see the entire Lebanese political class unite behind the task." Hizbullah has
long been targeted by U.S. sanctions and blacklisted as a "terrorist"
organization, but the Iran-backed group is also a powerful political player with
seats in Lebanon's parliament. "We believe it should play its part in this
effort," he said.
Lebanon’s new domestic worker contract: end to ‘kafala
slavery’?
Arab News/September 13/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon has approved a new work contract allowing foreign domestic
workers to resign and keep hold of their own passport, but activists say the
exploitative “kafala” system remains in place.
The economic crisis-hit Mediterranean country is home to around 250,000
migrants, mostly women from Africa and Asia, who toil away in people’s homes as
housekeepers, carers or nannies.
They are not protected by the country’s labor law, but instead work under a set
of laws, policies and customs called kafala repeatedly slammed by rights groups
as allowing a wide range of abuse.
Under kafala, meaning “sponsorship” in Arabic, the employer sponsors the
worker’s legal immigration status in the country, and the latter cannot resign
without their consent or they become undocumented. The law also does not ban
withholding a worker’s passport.All this leaves a worker at the employer’s
mercy. Lebanon’s economic and coronavirus crises have increased the urgency for
reform over the past year, with many families now paying their workers in the
devaluated local currency, and some not at all.
In recent months, dozens of foreign helpers have been thrown out into the
streets without due pay or even their passport, many of them interviewed by AFP.
After the August 4 blast at Beirut port that devastated swathes of the capital
and killed more than 190 people, foreign workers have staged rallies outside
their consulates appealing to be sent home. The labor ministry finally this
month published a new and revised work contract for domestic workers, the main
legal document governing their stay in Lebanon.
Outgoing labor minister Lamia Yammine has said the new contract — to replace a
2009 version — “abolishes the kafala system.” Campaigners have welcomed the
detailed five-page document outlining workers’ rights, but say it is only a
beginning.
“It is no doubt a much better version than the older one,” said Amnesty
International researcher Diala Haidar. But “a contract alone doesn’t end kafala.”
Most importantly, the new contract gives the workers the right to resign and
change employers, and says they can keep their passport.
If their employer withholds their wages or passport, they can immediately quit
without notice. It finally gives the worker the right to the national minimum
wage of 675,000 pounds ($450 before the crisis, less than $100 at the black
market rate) — albeit allowing the subtraction of an undetermined amount to
cover food, board and clothes. The new contract states workers must be provided
with a private, well-ventilated room with a key, an improvement after many women
said they were forced to sleep in the living room or on a balcony. It limits
labor to eight hours a day in a six-day week, and details the right to daily
rest, paid holidays and sick leave. But activists warn that all these new
provisions will amount to nothing without inspections and unless employers
violating the agreement are held accountable. “In the absence of an enforcement
mechanism, this contract will remain ink on paper,” Haidar said. The old
contract, for example, states the worker must receive their wages at the end of
the month, but this had not stopped some from kicking out workers without pay.
“We haven’t seen any employers held to account for this breach of the contract,”
she said.
A Beirut housewife, who employs a Filipino domestic worker, insisted there are
two sides to the story. “The employer needs to keep at least one document as
security... I know some employers are bad but also some employees are
ungrateful,” the 59-year-old said, asking not to be named. Rights groups have
documented manifold abuses over the years, including no day off, locking workers
inside the house, and physical or sexual assault. Activists have reported up to
two deaths a week.
They have repeatedly called for an end to kafala, which is common in the Middle
East and often compared to modern-day slavery. Zeina Mezher of the International
Labour Organization called the new contract “one step in the right direction”
toward dismantling kafala. But it’s just “the first step on a road that is still
complicated,” she said. She said support was needed to ensure a worker could
resign without losing their residency permit. Activists have also called for
parliament to amend the labor law to bring all domestic workers — Lebanese and
foreign — under its protection, and give them the right to set up unions.
Abi Ramia hosts a luncheon in honor of French Ambassador: You are
appreciated by all parties because you dealt objectively with everyone
NNA/September 13/2020
Head of the Lebanese-French Parliamentary Friendship Committee, MP Simon Abi
Ramia, held a luncheon banquet on Sunday, in honor of French Ambassador Bruno
Foucher marking the end of his term of office in Lebanon, in the presence of MPs
Yassin Jaber, Kassem Hashem, Hagop Pakradounian, Inaya Ezzedine, Alain Aoun,
Salim Aoun and Rola al-Tabash, and other dignitaries. In a word of appreciation
for the French Ambassador's contributions, Abi Ramia thanked him for "the great
efforts exerted for the sake of preserving the relationship between Lebanon and
France."
"The diplomatic circumstances have entailed that you leave this post at this
important time, while you are appreciated by all the Lebanese parties, because
you have dealt objectively, realistically and genuinely with everyone," Abi
Ramia told Foucher. "France today, through you, has given Lebanon a third
option, different from the two axes, and this creates hopes for the Lebanese at
this delicate stage. The Lebanese saw that the only president who has visited
Lebanon twice to-date within one month is French President Emmanuel Macron, and
he is striving to find solutions for the Lebanese, including an international
conference to aid Lebanon, which is expected to be held next month," Abi Ramia
added.
"We thank you for all the positive things that we have seen from you as
Lebanese, and we count on you to continue playing your constructive role in the
future," he concluded. For his part, Ambassador Foucher thanked Abi Ramia for
the hosted gathering, and said: "Lebanon is going through a delicate stage in
its history, and we hope that it will benefit from the political initiative that
President Macron is taking to help it rise. This requires the Lebanese political
parties to work seriously to carry out the required reforms." "Despite the
region's complexities, there are basic daily life dossiers that are only related
to the will and the good management of the Lebanese. Fundamental reforms that
make a difference to the Lebanese and are well-received by the international
community are required," Foucher emphasized. "The most beautiful thing that I
will carry with me from Lebanon is the cultural and political diversity and
differences that characterize the Lebanese, despite all the complications I have
seen," he corroborated.
Abi Ramia then presented a memorial shield to Foucher as a token of
appreciation, after which everyone headed to the forest of President Michel Aoun
in Ehmej, where the "Cedar of Lebanese-French Friendship" was planted.
Hawat: Lebanon is before decisive hours!
NNA/September 13/2020
"Lebanon is before crucial, decisive hours that may translate the French
initiative positively and open a new page of its history towards abandoning the
game of quotas, monopolization and conflict over seats...All political forces
must seize the opportunity and give the expected government all the support
needed to get out of the tunnel; otherwise, the curse of history awaits you!"
tweeted MP Ziad Al-Hawat today.
How Lebanon can chart a new path forward
Axel von Trotsenburg/Arab News/September 13/2020
The explosion that rocked Beirut on Aug. 4 shocked the world. It caused hundreds
of deaths and thousands of injuries, leveling some central sections of Lebanon’s
capital while wreaking extensive damage throughout the city. The human and
physical toll is immense, and given its location, the blast has knocked out the
city’s port and many of its businesses. This has brought most economic life to a
halt — not just for Beirut, but for the country as a whole.
The tragedy in Lebanon demands an urgent global response, and it is a hopeful
sign that this is already underway. To guide these efforts, the World Bank Group
has conducted a rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA) in collaboration with
the EU and the UN and in close partnership with Lebanese ministries,
institutions, and civil society organizations. Our assessment finds that damages
from the explosion are in the range of $3.8-4.6 billion, with losses to
financial flows amounting to $2.9-3.5 billion. The impacts are particularly
severe in key sectors that are vital for growth, including finance, housing,
tourism, and commerce. Through the end of 2021, the costs of recovery and
reconstruction are expected to total $1.8-2.2 billion. Apart from the losses in
economic activity, Lebanon can expect lower fiscal revenues, higher inflation,
and a further rise in poverty. Trade disruptions are also possible, which would
raise transaction costs and further impede growth. But with its comprehensive
approach, the RDNA, as we call it, offers a concrete way forward to support a
rapid and robust recovery. We are committed to bringing together the people of
Lebanon, donor countries, and our international partners to ensure that
reconstruction is transparent, sustainable, and inclusive. My own organization —
whose first task was reconstruction, as Europe recovered after the Second World
War — will be able to draw on our global expertise in helping countries after
disasters. This will mean not just leveraging a wide range of analytical and
practical experience but also setting up a process that puts the needs of the
Lebanese people first.
The World Bank Group stands ready to help Lebanon with reforms that promote
sustainable economic and social recovery. This disaster is, in fact, only the
most visible and dramatic of a series of misfortunes that have dominated the
country over the last decade and steeply accelerated in recent months. These
include spillovers from the Syria conflict, with Lebanon hosting the largest
number of refugees per capita of any country in the world. An ongoing financial
and economic crisis has worsened significantly: Just prior to the explosion, the
economy was projected to contract by over 18 percent in 2020, while inflation
rates were already in the triple digits by mid-year. And for Lebanon’s people,
the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the associated lockdown have further
contributed to sharp increases in poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. The
explosion only compounds this already dire situation for the country. But
Lebanon’s challenges are not just a matter of economics: Its government
institutions have broken down in terms of transparency and accountability,
stalling international relief efforts even amid the economy’s downward spiral of
recent months. Looking forward, the country needs not only to rebuild, but also
to build back better. Change must be driven by three organizing principles:
Transparency, inclusion, and good governance. Lebanon must begin to function
better, and in ways that benefit all of its people.
Hence this moment of crisis is also a wake-up call for profound changes — in
institutional, economic, and social policies — based on the priorities of the
Lebanese people. The RDNA includes the views of representatives and stakeholders
from all spheres of Lebanese society; this input has helped shape the report’s
findings, analyses, and recommendations. The people of Lebanon have demonstrated
repeatedly over the decades that they can recover from conflict and destruction.
They also can tap the resources of a highly engaged global diaspora. So I am
confident that we can once again count on their drive and resourcefulness. But
this time it is not just a question of survival and recovery. It is also a
question of whether the country will seize the moment and take decisive action
for change, charting a new path forward.
The World Bank Group stands ready to help Lebanon with reforms that promote
sustainable economic and social recovery, especially to increase inclusion and
to turn around the country’s high rate of poverty. We look forward to partnering
at the country level and across the international community in this essential
work. Together we can change the course of Lebanon’s future.
*Axel van Trotsenburg is World Bank Managing Director for Operations.
Carlos Ghosn's ex-Aide Kelly Goes on Trial
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 13/2020
The lengthy saga of ex-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn takes a new turn next week when
the auto titan-turned-fugitive's former assistant Greg Kelly goes on trial in
Tokyo. Ghosn's arrest in the Japanese capital in November 2018 on allegations of
financial misconduct made headlines worldwide and kicked off an astonishing fall
from grace for the businessman, once hailed as a corporate savior for rescuing
Nissan from the brink of bankruptcy. But Kelly was also detained that day,
having been effectively lured back to Japan from the United States on the
premise of an urgent meeting.
And with Ghosn in Lebanon as an international fugitive after he made an
audacious escape while out on bail in Tokyo last year, Kelly is now the only
person expected to face trial any time soon in connection with the case. The
American lawyer appears in court from Tuesday facing a single charge: of
conspiring to under-report tens of million of dollars in pay that Ghosn was
allegedly promised after his retirement. Kelly, who will turn 64 on the day the
trial opens, denies any wrongdoing. He faces up to 10 years in jail if
convicted. The trial, expected to last around 10 months, centers around one
question, fraught with complex technicalities: did Kelly and Nissan between 2010
and 2018 illegally conceal payments of around 9.2 billion yen ($87 million at
today's rates) promised to Ghosn on retirement? Nissan, which will be on trial
alongside Kelly, says yes, and plans to plead guilty, multiple sources told AFP.
- 'I didn't do anything wrong' -
But Kelly has insisted on his innocence since day one. "I didn't do anything
wrong," he told AFP in an interview in early September. "Carlos Ghosn never got
paid anything and he wasn't promised anything," he insisted. Nissan and Japanese
prosecutors disagree, arguing they have evidence that these future payments were
pledged to Ghosn, and therefore should have been disclosed in the firm's
financial filings as required by Japanese law. Prosecutors have amassed a vast
amount of documents, only a small portion of which the defense have been given
so far, according to Kelly's lawyers.
Despite that, his team decided to agree to move to trial, arguing they had "no
choice", with Kelly prevented from leaving the country and separated from his
family while he waits for his case to go to court. Kelly's legal team say they
are confident he can be acquitted, despite the track record of Japan's
prosecutors, who win over 99 percent of the criminal cases they bring to court.
But they argue they have been put at a strong disadvantage by the court's
refusal to allow overseas witnesses to testify by videoconference. The defense
say some witnesses who could help acquit Kelly fear being detained if they
testify in person in Japan. "There is no trust in the Japanese judiciary system
among foreign witnesses," Kelly's US lawyer James Wareham told AFP.
"They are afraid, they are not going to come to Japan."
- Defense remains confident -
Despite the obstacles, Kelly's Japanese lawyer Yoichi Kitamura said he is
"confident we can win the case". Nissan has been tight-lipped about the trial,
with a spokeswoman saying only "we do not comment on pending litigation."
The company appears uncomfortable to finally have arrived at the court date,
with a source close to the firm's leadership saying there was concern about
negative media attention. One of the trial's key witnesses will be Hari Nada,
Kelly's former colleague, who obtained whistleblower status from prosecutors in
exchange for his cooperation. Former CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who was forced out over
financial improprieties discovered by an internal investigation in the wake of
the Ghosn scandal, will also give testimony. The fact that he was able to resign
without facing prosecution has been cited by Ghosn as evidence of what he claims
is a biased justice system. The former auto chief has defended his decision to
flee Japan by claiming he would not have received a fair trial.
Q&A: What to Expect from Trial of Ghosn's ex-Aide
Kelly
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 13/2020
The criminal trial against Japanese automaker Nissan and its former executive
Greg Kelly will open in Tokyo District Court on Tuesday. It's the latest chapter
in the unfolding scandal of Carlos Ghosn, a superstar at Nissan Motor Co. until
he and Kelly were arrested in late 2018.
Five questions and answers about the trial:
Q: WHAT ARE THE ALLEGATIONS?
A: The charges center around Kelly's role in alleged under-reporting of Ghosn's
future compensation by about 9 billion yen ($85 million), a violation of
financial laws. Kelly says he is innocent. Nissan, which is also similarly
charged, has already acknowledged guilt, made corrections to the compensation
documents submitted to the authorities, and has started paying a 2.4 billion yen
($22.6 million) fine.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS TO GHOSN?
A: Probably nothing. He skipped bail late last year and is now in Lebanon, which
has no extradition treaty with Japan. Two Americans, Michael Taylor and his son
Peter Taylor are being held in Massachusetts without bail, suspected of having
helped Ghosn escape by hiding in a box on a private jet. A U.S. judge recently
approved their extradition to Japan. The case is now before the U.S. State
Department.
Q: HOW DO CRIMINAL TRIALS PROCEED IN JAPAN?
A: The trial, before a panel of three judges, is expected to take about a year.
There is no jury. Juries are selected only for extremely serious cases in Japan,
such as murder. In principle, there are no plea bargains although backroom deals
are made all the time. Closed pre-trial sessions are held ahead of the trial's
opening, often for months before the real trial begins. Japan's legal system has
come under fire from both within and outside the country as "hostage justice"
because suspects often are held for months and interrogated without a lawyer
present, often leading to false confessions, according to critics.
Q: WHAT ARE KELLY'S CHANCES?
A: More than 99% of criminal trials in Japan result in a conviction. Japanese
Justice Minister Masako Mori, in an online presentation in English hosted by the
Japanese Embassy in the U.S., argued the conviction rate is so high because
Japan prosecutes only about a third of the cases that come up, choosing only
those that "result in guilty verdicts." She insisted there is a "presumption of
innocence." She declined comment on Kelly's case. Jamie Wareham, Kelly's lawyer
in the U.S., is confident Kelly will be acquitted because he is "obviously
innocent," but says he has been treated unfairly, awaiting trial for nearly two
years.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
A: Prosecutors will present their opening statement, outlining their case
against Kelly during the first day of the trial. Republican lawmakers Sen. Roger
Wicker from Mississippi, Sen. Lamar Alexander and Sen. Marsha Blackburn from
Tennessee have spoken out in support of Kelly. When asked about the trial, Tokyo
Deputy Chief Prosecutor Hiroshi Yamamoto said little beyond reiterating his
confidence there was plenty of evidence to win a conviction. The maximum penalty
for the charges Kelly faces is up to a decade in prison.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 13-14/2020
Pompeo in Cyprus Says U.S. 'Deeply Concerned' over
Turkey Energy Search
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 13/2020
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Turkey to cease tension-raising
activities in the eastern Mediterranean during an official visit to Cyprus,
urging all sides to back diplomacy. Ankara is at loggerheads with Greece and
Cyprus over maritime hydrocarbon resources and naval spheres of influence,
sparking fears of conflict. "We remain deeply concerned by Turkey's ongoing
operations surveying for natural resources in areas over which Greece and Cyprus
assert jurisdiction over the eastern Mediterranean," Pompeo told reporters in
Nicosia after a meeting with Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades and
Foreign Minister Nicos Christodoulides. "Increased military tensions help no one
but adversaries who would like to see division in transatlantic unity," he
added. "Regional corporation is absolutely necessary for durable energy
security."
The Mediterranean island of Cyprus is divided between the internationally
recognized Republic of Cyprus, a member of the EU, and a breakaway state set up
after a Turkish invasion launched in 1974 in response to a coup sponsored by the
military junta then ruling Greece. Pompeo met the Cypriot officials after a trip
to Doha where he inaugurated long-awaited talks between Afghanistan's government
and the Taliban. "Countries in the region need to resolve disagreements,
including on security and energy resource and maritime issues diplomatically and
peacefully," he said.Pompeo said his trip to Cyprus would complement phone calls
by President Donald Trump with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Anastasiades welcomed the U.S.' "firm
stance on condemning Turkey's illegal drillings within (Cyprus') Exclusive
Economic Zone"
- Concerns over Russian warships -
Pompeo's "visit at a time when crucial developments are taking place in the
Eastern Mediterranean, due to Turkey's illegal actions, aptly demonstrates the
sincere concern and interest of the US in preserving stability in our region,"
he said. Turkey's "unlawful activities... should be immediately terminated," he
said, adding however that he conveyed Cyprus' support for resolving disputes in
the eastern Mediterranean through dialogue. Turkey, which is hunting for gas and
oil reserves in waters claimed by fellow NATO member Greece, last month deployed
an exploration vessel backed by military frigates. Greece then responded by
shadowing the Turkish ships and staging naval exercises with several EU allies
and the United Arab Emirates in its own show of force. Pompeo's trip comes
shortly after the United States lifted a decades-old arms embargo on Cyprus,
outraging Turkey, and days after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a
visit to Cyprus. Lavrov, who underscored Moscow's close relations with Cyprus,
offered to play peacemaker in the region to ease tensions between Cyprus and
Turkey in a dispute over maritime and energy rights.
Pompeo took the opportunity to remind Cyprus that Washington was uneasy about
Russian warships stopping off at Cypriot ports. "We know that all the Russian
military vessels that stop in Cypriot ports are not conducting humanitarian
missions in Syria and we ask Cyprus and the president to consider our concerns."
Nicosia has repeatedly stated it provides facilities to Russian warships based
on humanitarian grounds. Tensions rose in the region again when Turkey on Friday
gave notice of a gunnery exercise off the coast of Sadrazamkoy in northern
Cyprus between Saturday and Monday, despite the looming threat of EU sanctions.
Cyprus' Joint Rescue Coordination Center -- attached to the defense ministry --
late Friday called Turkey's move "illegal" because it "violates the Republic of
Cyprus' sovereignty and sovereign rights."
In a separate development, the Greek Cypriot National Guard said Saturday that
it would take part in joint training maneuvers with U.S. forces and two boats.
"Two combatant craft medium transport vessels of the U.S. special navy forces
are in Cyprus to participate in joint military drills," it said in a statement.
The drills, which began Saturday and will last until September 20, are taking
place in the "framework of the bilateral relations between the Republic of
Cyprus and the U.S."
Pompeo Condemns 'Vicious' Execution of Wrestler in
Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 13/2020
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has condemned the "vicious" execution of a
wrestler in Iran, joining a chorus of shock and censure -- including from the
International Olympic Committee -- against the killing. "The Iranian regime's
execution of Navid Afkari is a vicious and cruel act. We condemn it in the
strongest terms. It is an outrageous assault on human dignity, even by the
despicable standards of this regime. The voices of the Iranian people will not
be silenced," Pompeo tweeted. Afkari has been accused of murdering a man during
a wave of anti-government protests in 2018. He had been found guilty of
"voluntary homicide" for stabbing to death Hossein Torkman, a water department
employee, on August 2, 2018, the judiciary said.Shiraz and several other urban
centers across Iran had been the scene that day of anti-government protests and
demonstrations over economic and social hardship.
UAE, US sign agreement to enhance diplomatic immunity
for consular staff
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/Monday 14 September 2020
The UAE and the US signed an agreement that enhances the diplomatic immunity of
both countries’ consular staff, a statement by the US State Department read.
“The United States and the United Arab Emirates signed an Enhanced Consular
Privileges and Immunities Agreement which will provide enhanced protections to
Emirati and American consular staff serving their citizens in both countries,”
according to the statement. “This agreement will strengthen the ability of
consular staff to protect the interests of citizens and advance national
interests, and is a testament to the value that the United States and the UAE
place on the safety and morale of their consular teams,” it added. “The UAE
continues to be an important strategic partner in maintaining stability in the
Gulf, protecting American interests in the Middle East, and ensuring the free
flow of commerce throughout the Gulf region. We are grateful for the strong
bilateral partnership we continue to have with the UAE and look forward to
future initiatives,” the statement read. The agreement was announced a month
after the US-brokered UAE-Israel peace deal, which was announced at the White
House on August 13.
The UAE-Israel deal was struck following what officials said were 18 months of
talks, the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel, while Israel agreed to
continue with plans to suspend its annexation of the West Bank.
UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Sheikh Abdullah
bin Zayed arrived in Washington on Sunday, leading the delegation to the signing
ceremony of the UAE-Israel peace deal hosted by US President Donald Trump. The
signing ceremony will take place on Tuesday, in the presence of Israeli Prime
Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran says 1,044 centrifuges active at Fordow uranium
enrichment plant
AFP/Sunday 13 September 2020
The head of Iran's atomic agency said Sunday that 1,044 centrifuges were active
at the Fordow uranium enrichment plant, in line with steps to reduce its
commitments to the nuclear deal. The suspension of all enrichment at the
underground facility near the Shiite holy city of Qom was one of the
restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities that it accepted in return for the
lifting of international sanctions in the 2015 landmark accord. Tehran first
announced the resumption of enrichment at Fordow last November, the fourth phase
of its push since May 2019 to progressively suspend commitments to the deal.
It was in retaliation to Washington's abandonment of the accord in May 2018
followed by its unilateral reimposition of sanctions. "Currently 1,044
centrifuges are enriching at Fordow," Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's
atomic agency, told the Iranian parliament's news agency ICANA.
"We were committed in the JCPOA that these 1,044 machines do not carry out
enrichment, but it is being done per dropped commitments as much as needed and
we will stockpile the enriched material, too," he added, referring to the
accord's official name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran's other
walk-back steps included exceeding the accord's restrictions on enriched uranium
reserves and enrichment level, development of advanced centrifuges, and
foregoing a limit on its number of centrifuges. In a joint statement in
November, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union said Iran's decision
to restart activities at Fordow was "inconsistent" with the 2015 deal. The
parties to the accord have called on Iran to return to its commitments, but
Tehran insists the steps can be reversed once its economic benefits from the
deal are realized. The United Nation's nuclear watchdog said on September 4 that
Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium now stands at more than ten times the limit
set down in the 2015 deal. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have escalated
since the US pulled out of the deal, and flared in January when a US drone
strike killed top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
They have spiraled in recent months following a US push to extend an arms
embargo on Iran that starts to progressively expire in October as well as
reimposing UN sanctions on Iran.
Top Iraq cleric al-Sistani backs early election after
UN meeting
AFP/Sunday 13 September 2020
Iraq’s top Shia cleric on Sunday endorsed early parliamentary elections set for
June 2021, following his first meeting in nearly a year with a senior United
Nations official. “The parliamentary elections scheduled for next year are of
great importance,” said Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, 90, in an online
statement after the bilateral meeting. Iraqis should be encouraged to
participate “widely,” he added, while warning that failing to hold the polls on
time or in a free and fair way would “threaten the unity and future of Iraq’s
people.” Al-Sistani does not make public appearances and typically issues a
weekly Friday sermon through a representative. He avoids meeting political
figures, but has traditionally made an exception for the UN, which is seen as
unbiased. This year, the cleric has been quieter than usual - weekly prayers
stopped in late February with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, which also
sparked fears for al-Sistani’s health. On Sunday, al-Sistani hosted the UN’s top
representative in Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert in his modest home in the
shrine city of Najaf, 10 months since their last meeting.“If done in the right
way, in the right and credible way, they could open an important chapter for the
country,” she said, referring to early elections. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi
had announced in late July that Iraq would hold parliamentary elections nearly a
year early, seeking to make good on one of the main promises he made when he
came to power earlier this year.
Al-Sistani has himself been a proponent of early elections since last year, when
unprecedented anti-government protests rocked Baghdad and the Shia-majority
cities of the south. The cleric had been increasingly sharp in his criticism of
the current fragmented parliament, which was elected in May 2018.
The 329-member body has voted in favor of electoral reform ahead of next year’s
elections but has yet to decide on key elements, including district size.
Greek PM Announces Arms Purchases as Turkey Tension
Rises
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 13/2020
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Saturday announced a "robust" arms
purchase programme and an overhaul of the country's military amid tension with
Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean. "The time has come to reinforce the armed
forces... these initiatives constitute a robust programme that will become a
national shield," the PM said in a keynote address in the northern city of
Thessaloniki. Mitsotakis said Greece would acquire 18 French-made Rafale
warplanes, four multi-purpose frigates and four navy helicopters, while also
recruiting 15,000 new troops and pouring resources into the national arms
industry and cyber-attack defence.New anti-tank weapons, navy torpedoes and
airforce missiles will be secured, the PM said. The programme, which includes
upgrades of another existing four frigates, is also designed to create thousands
of jobs, he said. More details on the cost of the programme and origin of the
weapons purchases will be announced at a news conference Sunday, a government
source told AFP. Mitsotakis is believed to have hammered out the programme after
talks with French President Emmanuel Macron during a southern European leaders
summit in Corsica this week.
In contrast to other EU and NATO allies, France has strongly backed Greece in
its burgeoning showdown with Turkey, as well as Cyprus. Macron has told Turkish
counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to cross "red lines" and has sent warships
and fighter jets to the region. Turkey in August sent an exploration ship and a
small navy flotilla to conduct seismic research in waters which Greece considers
its own under postwar treaties. Greece responded by shadowing the Turkish
flotilla with its own warships, and by staging naval exercises with several EU
allies and the United Arab Emirates in its own show of force.
Turkey "threatens" Europe's eastern border and "undermines" regional security,
Mitsotakis said Saturday.
Turkish survey ship leaves contested waters in eastern
Mediterranean
Arab News/September 13/2020
ISTANBUL: A Turkish research ship at the center of
a row with Greece over gas exploration has left disputed waters in the eastern
Mediterranean and returned to the coast in a move hailed as a “positive first
step” by the Greek prime minister. The Oruc Reis seismic survey vessel backed by
Turkish navy frigates has been deployed to waters near the Greek island of
Kastellorizo since August 10 despite repeated protests from Athens and the
European Union. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar confirmed that the ship has
returned to the Turkish coast while ship-tracking websites marinetraffic.com and
vesselfinder.com showed it in waters near the port of Antalya. “There will be
planned movements backwards and forward,” Akar told state news agency Anadolu in
Antalya. He said the movement away from the contested waters, which are claimed
by both countries, did not mean Turkey “would be giving up on our rights there.”
But the decision not to extend the ship’s mission was viewed as “a step toward
giving diplomacy a chance,” the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper said on
Sunday, linking it to attempts to kickstart talks between Greece and Turkey, who
are both NATO partners. “This is a positive first step,” Greek Prime Minister
Kyriakos Mitsotakis told reporters at a press conference in the Greek city
Thessaloniki on Sunday. “I hope there will be more of them.”France, already at
odds with Turkey over Libya and Syria, has sent in its own naval ships into the
region to support Greece, which announced major new arms purchases on Saturday,
including French-made Rafale fighter jets. Akar slammed French President
Emmanuel Macron, accusing him of “provoking and encouraging” Greece. The
decision to send the Oruc Reis ship to map out potential gas and oil drilling
spots is seen as part of Turkey’s so-called “Blue Homeland” strategy of staking
out claims to energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean. The lack of agreed
maritime borders between Turkey and Greece, or Turkey and Cyprus, have led to
tensions since the discovery of major hydrocarbon reserves in the region in the
past decade. Efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the latest standoff have
so far proved fruitless. NATO said earlier this month that officials from both
sides had agreed to take part in technical talks to avoid accidents between
their navies.
Athens denied this was the case, but the Turkish defense ministry said on
Thursday that the first round of talks between Greek and Turkish military
delegations took place at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. While Turkey
repeatedly said it was ready for dialogue without preconditions, Greece said
there could only be talks once Ankara stopped making “threats.”Greek President
Katerina Sakellaropoulou visited the island of Kastellorizo near the disputed
waters on Sunday where she said Turkey was “mounting pressure” on Athens. “We
are going through a difficult and dangerous period. The Turkish leadership... is
undermining the peaceful coexistence that was built over many decades by Greeks
and Turks, who saw the sea between them not as an impenetrable frontier but as a
passage of communication,” Sakellaropoulou said.
Leaders of seven European countries on the Mediterranean met at a summit last
week in Corsica where they said they were ready to back EU sanctions on Turkey
over the dispute. Any action by Brussels will be discussed at a European Council
summit on September 24 and 25. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on
Saturday warned Macron “not to mess” with Turkey in his latest verbal salvo
directed at Paris. “Don’t mess with the Turkish people. Don’t mess with Turkey,”
Erdogan said during a televised speech in Istanbul.
Afghan forces, Taliban continue to clash even as peace talks
start
Arab News/September 13/2020
KABUL: Taliban and Afghan government forces clashed across
Afghanistan hours after the start of long-awaited peace talks in Doha on
Saturday, officials said, underscoring the uphill challenge of settling a
19-year insurgency. Talks between the two sides were to begin shortly after a
US-Taliban agreement in February, but began only over the weekend after months
of delays, caused in part by continuing Taliban offensives in the war-torn
country. “With the start of intra-Afghan talks we were expecting the Taliban to
reduce the number of their attacks, but unfortunately their attacks are still
going in high numbers,” Fawad Aman, a spokesman for the Afghan defense ministry,
said. Representatives from a number of countries who spoke at the inauguration
of the peace talks called on the Taliban to announce an immediate cease-fire
before negotiators sat down to find a way to end decades of war in Afghanistan.
The Taliban did not say anything about a possible cease-fire at the ceremony.
Achieving a significant reduction in violence and how to get to a permanent
cease-fire would be among the first issues the sides would discuss when they
meet on Sunday, the head of Afghanistan’s peace council, Abdullah Abdullah, told
Reuters on Saturday. No meeting between the two has been reported by either side
in Doha on Sunday, but Qatar’s state news agency reported teams led by Taliban’s
political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Abdullah had met the Qatari Emir.
Aman said that, on Friday, the eve of the inauguration of the talks, the Taliban
had carried out 18 attacks against government forces and installations across
the country, inflicting heavy casualties. “We don’t have exact information about
Taliban attacks on Saturday, but I can say the number of attacks has increased
instead of decreased.” Taliban attacks on Saturday night were confirmed by
officials in the provinces of Kapsia and Kunduz. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah
Mujahid said in a statement that the insurgent group attacked a convoy of Afghan
forces that had arrived to launch an operation along a key highway in Kunduz. He
added that security forces carried out air and artillery strikes on Saturday
night in the provinces of Baghlan and Jowzjan.
Bahrain is first Shiite-majority nation to establish
ties with Israel
DEBKA File/September 13/2020
The announcement of a “historic US-Bahrain-Israel breakthrough to further peace
in the Middle East,” after the United Arab Republic, underlined the strategic
realignment of the Middle East underway under the Trump baton. Israel and Gulf
Arab nations were in furtive rapport for years, but its formal breakthrough to
open ties happened because the long pan-Arab boycott fueled by hate and fear was
ready to make way for normal relations when stimulated by the powerful mutual
profit motive. For the Gulf, this means embracing trade and tourism with a rich,
high-tech economy and is coupled with the availability of long-denied advanced
US weaponry. The Arab rulers were willing to sideline the irksome Palestinian
issue, which for decades blocked neighborly ties, for the sake of girding up
together to ward off the threat posed by a common enemy, Iran. Trump was enabled
to reinforce his sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic with another
strong lever, growing regional isolation. Bahrain’s case is different from that
of the UAE and riskier. President Trump noted that it took 26 years for the UAE
and Israel to establish diplomatic ties; but only a month for the decision by
Manama. This discrepancy reflects geography: the Emirates are 100km from Iran,
while Bahrain’s islands are no distance at all, The two cases were different in
another way too. Whereas relations with Israel were welcomed not just by Emirati
leaders but by their population, Bahrain’s Sunni hereditary king Hamad bin Isa
bin Salman al-Khalifa, as ruler of a tiny population with a 70pc Shiite Muslims
majority, took a big chance. Iran’s Lebanese agent, Hizballah, has planted and
trained terrorist cells among his restive Shiite community. Toppling the Al
Khalifa throne would serve Tehran s claim to the island-kingdom as Iran’s “14th
province.”
In 2011, next-door Saudi Arabia sent troops to help the king quell the “Arab
Spring” Iran-backed Shiite uprising. Its success would have also impinged
heavily on Saudi Arabia’s own Shiite minority in the Eastern Province opposite
Bahrain.
The Al-Khalifa rulers depend on Riyadh not just as a shield, but for their
economic health. The island-kingdom’s fast depleting Abu Safah oilfield is
shared with the Saudi company Aramco. King Hamad would therefore not have
ventured to establish diplomatic relations with Israel without a nod from
Riyadh, although the Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is
constrained by domestic issues from formalizing the kingdom’s working ties with
Israel himself.
The strategic importance of the tiny island-kingdom, with the smallest economy
among the six Gulf Cooperation Council members, is highly disproportionate to
its size. Wedged between its powerful Saudi ally and hostile Qatar and Iran,
Bahrain’s archipelago of 100-islands – half of them artificial – plays host to
key US bases: Naval Support Activity Bahrain, US Naval Forces Central Command
and United States Fifth Fleet. It is the primary base in the region for
America’s naval and marine activities. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin
Rashid Al Zayani will therefore be an important presence at the White House
ceremony on Tuesday for the signing of the Israel-UAE normalization accord. For
its host, President Donald Trump, the occasion will boost his role as a Middle
East peacemaker in his campaign for re-election in November. For Netanyahu, who
will also be there, it is a sorely needed sugar coating for the pressing
imposition of Israel a second national lockdown against the surging coronavirus
contagion, which his government has failed to contain. On Saturday, the Bahrain
FM and his Israeli counterpart Gaby Ashkenazi exchanged congratulation on the
deal. Iran threatened Bahrain with reprisals, while the Palestinian Authority
furiously withdrew its envoy from Manama.
Hamas Ready for ‘Humanitarian’ Deal with Israel
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 September,
2020
Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh said Friday Egypt was mediating between
Israel and his movement over a possible new prisoner swap. “Our brothers in
Egypt are following up on several issues, including the reconciliation
[presumably between Hamas and Fatah], the Rafah border crossing, and the
prisoner exchange issues,” he reportedly told journalists in Beirut. Haniyeh did
not reveal whether there was progress in this issue or not, but informed sources
told Asharq Al-Awsat that no major breakthrough has been reached, confirming
that “new, continuous and serious talks” are underway. “Israel has requested
readdressing the issue, and Hamas is open to any mediation and its conditions
are clear,” the sources said. A condition for any prisoner swap deal with Israel
is the release of dozens of Palestinians who were rearrested following a 2011
exchange with Hamas, they revealed, stressing that “Hamas is ready for a
humanitarian or comprehensive agreement.”Under the 2011 deal, Israel released
1,027 Palestinians in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was
abducted in 2006. In early April, Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar
announced an initiative to release soldiers captured by the Qassam Brigades –
the movement’s military wing - in exchange for elderly, female, ill, and child
prisoners.Tel Aviv has for the past few months been pushing for a comprehensive
and a final agreement. The sources said that Hamas was also ready to strike a
final deal, stressing that Israel must go beyond releasing the bodies of its
fighters and the sick and elderly, but also include hundreds of prisoners,
including those in jail for several years and others sentenced to life. An
Egyptian security delegation had discussed these issues and others during a
two-day visit to Israel and Gaza on Thursday. It arrived in Gaza following a
Qatari-sponsored preliminary ceasefire agreement, which stipulates that Israel
cancels all recent restrictions it imposed on the coastal enclave in exchange
for Hamas’ halt of its escalation. Hamas has been demanding that Israel lift its
siege on Gaza, allow the establishment of major projects, a free trade zone and
a floating port. Hamas is holding four Israelis, including Oron Shaul and Hadar
Goldin, who were captured by the movement in the war that broke out in the
summer of 2014. Israel believes Shaul and Goldin are dead, however, Hamas does
not provide any information about them. Also, Hamas is also holding Avera
Mengistu, an Israeli of Ethiopian descent, and Hashim Badawi al-Sayyid, who is
of Arab descent. Both crossed Gaza borders at two different times after the war.
There are some 5,000 Palestinian political prisoners, including 41 women and 180
minors, in Israeli prisons.
At Afghan Peace Talks, the Hard Work Begins
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 13/2020
Peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government negotiators get down to
business Sunday, with the search for a lasting ceasefire one of many key issues
up for discussion. A slick opening ceremony in the Qatari capital Doha on
Saturday saw the Afghan government, and allies including the US, call for a
ceasefire. But the Taliban, who have fought a guerrilla campaign against both
since they were forced from power in 2001, did not mention a truce as they came
to the negotiating table. The head of the peace process for the Afghan
government suggested to AFP that the Taliban could offer a ceasefire in exchange
for the release of more of their jailed fighters. "This could be one of their
ideas or one of their demands," said Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of
Afghanistan's High Council for National Reconciliation. Negotiations will be
arduous and messy, delegates warned during the opening ceremony, and are
starting even as deadly violence continues to grip Afghanistan. "We will
undoubtedly encounter many challenges in the talks over the coming days, weeks
and months," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said as he called for the warring
sides to "seize this opportunity" to secure peace. Nearly two decades since the
US-led invasion that toppled the Taliban, the war still kills dozens of people
daily and the country's economy has been shattered, pushing millions into
poverty. The Taliban have long worried that reducing conflict could lessen their
leverage. Even as technical committees from the two sides were due to meet to
hammer out an agenda for the talks, violence continued to rage on the ground.
Officials said six police were killed in a Taliban attack in Kunduz overnight,
while five officers were slain in another attack in Kapisa province. A roadside
mine blast in the capital Kabul wounded two civilians while another explosion in
Kabul district resulted in no casualties.
'Sooner rather than later'
During a speech at the opening event, Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar repeated the insurgents' message that Afghanistan should be run
according to Islamic law, highlighting a likely sticking point. A comprehensive
peace deal could take years, and will depend on the willingness of both sides to
tailor their competing visions for Afghanistan and the extent to which they can
agree to share power. President Ashraf Ghani's government wants to maintain the
Western-backed status quo of a constitutional republic that has enshrined many
rights, including greater freedoms for women. Four of the 21 people on the Kabul
negotiating team are women. The Taliban, who stripped women of all basic
freedoms while in power from 1996-2001, had no female negotiators. In a
statement, Ghani called for "a lasting and dignified peace" that preserved "the
achievements of the past 19 years." Afghan government negotiator Habiba Sarabi
told AFP the start of talks had been "very positive." Abdullah said the process
"could be the start of history made in the coming future -- and hopefully sooner
rather than later." The U.S.-backed negotiations come six months later than
planned owing to disagreements over a controversial prisoner swap agreed in
February.Under the terms of that force withdrawal deal struck between the U.S.
and the Taliban, 5,000 Taliban prisoners have already been released in exchange
for 1,000 government forces.
Libya’s Haftar committed to ending oil blockade, US
says
Reuters/Saturday 12 September 2020
Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar has committed to ending a months-long blockade
of oil facilities, the US embassy in the country said in a statement on
Saturday, but oil ports and fields remained shut. The statement said the
eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) had conveyed “the personal commitment
of General Haftar to allow the full reopening of the energy sector no later than
September 12”. It comes after the United States has led efforts to end the oil
shutdown amid a wider diplomatic push to cement a ceasefire and a political
agreement between rival factions based in the east and west of the country.
Haftar’s LNA and its backers imposed the blockade in January, reducing Libya’s
oil output from more than one million barrels per day (bpd) to less than 100,000
bpd, and further deepening Libya’s economic collapse.
Although authorities in eastern Libya have allowed some stored oil products to
be exported in order to ease a power generation crisis in eastern Libya, they
have stopped short of lifting the blockade.
Rival Libya factions agree criteria for key posts during Morocco talks
AFP/Thursday 10 September 2020
Delegates from rival Libyan administrations on Thursday agreed at talks in
Morocco on criteria for appointments to their country’s key institutions, a
joint statement said. They also agreed to pause the talks and resume discussions
during the last week of September, according to the accord read out by Idris
Omran of Libya’s eastern parliament.Initial talks between five members of the
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and five from Libya’s eastern
parliament took place from Sunday to Tuesday, yielding a joint statement
pointing to “important compromises”, but without divulging details. The
negotiations, dubbed the “Libyan Dialogue” in the coastal town of Bouznika,
south of Morocco’s capital Rabat, resumed behind closed doors on Thursday, the
AFP correspondent said. In the evening Omran read out a joint statement to
reporters saying the delegates had agreed “the criteria, transparent mechanisms
and objectives” for key posts.He did not give further details but said the two
sides would meet again during the last week of September to finalize mechanisms
“that would guarantee the implementation and activation” of the agreement. The
naming of the heads of Libya’s central bank, its National Oil Corporation and
the armed forces have been the main points of dispute, according to Libyan
media. Parallel to the Morocco talks, “consultations” took place in Montreux,
Switzerland this week between Libyan stakeholders and members of UNSMIL, said
Stephanie Williams, the UN’s interim envoy to Libya.
The meetings held between September 7-9 were a follow-up to a call made by the
rival Libyan administrations on August 22 calling for an end to hostilities and
nationwide elections. Held under the auspices of the Centre for Humanitarian
Dialogue, the Montreux talks “provide a basis for all responsible Libyan
stakeholders to forge the way forward”, the UN envoy said. Libya has endured
almost a decade of violent chaos since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that
toppled and killed veteran dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 13-14/2020
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/September
13/2020
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the
Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its
majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Uniquely, Bahrain is the only Gulf Arab state with an indigenous Jewish
community. Once numbering several thousand, the community has been depleted over
the years by emigration, particularly after the establishment of the state of
Israel. The group’s current number is fewer than forty; nonetheless, it includes
an appointed member of the National Assembly and a former ambassador to
Washington.
Bahrain’s Jews have been careful to maintain a low profile, until recently
conducting religious services at home rather than the small synagogue building
in the old part of Manama, the capital. Their protector has been King Hamad bin
Isa al-Khalifa, who has personally backed a policy of interfaith dialogue and
peaceful coexistence, engaging with other interfaith groups across the world.
(The monarch may well feel that the United Arab Emirates’ “Abraham Accord” with
Israel imitates his own efforts.) Such a policy, along with engagement with
international Jewish personalities, has meant that Bahrain’s political
engagement with Israel was only a matter of time. The past year or so has seen
both advances and setbacks. Hopes of an Israeli delegation at a business
conference in Bahrain in April 2019 were dashed after weeks of public outcry by
Arab groups, who protested the Israelis’ scheduled attendance. (The Israelis did
subsequently attend, but as individuals who avoided drawing attention to
themselves.) Yet, in June 2019, Israelis were able to attend an economic seminar
in Bahrain that was sponsored by the United States as part of its Middle East
peace plan. Further, Israeli officials and journalists prayed at the synagogue
in Manama, which had recently been renovated. Given its proximity to Saudi
Arabia (with which it is joined by a causeway) and its tense relationship with
Iran (which once claimed its territory), Bahrain’s opening to Israel is more
risky than the UAE’s move. Riyadh, previously a brake, appears to have
encouraged the development. Tehran is sure to disapprove. Members of Bahrain’s
civil society, both Shia and Sunni, came out against the UAE’s normalization,
and are therefore likely to disapprove of the decision as well.
The main question is whether Iran’s hostility will instigate a fresh round of
street protests by Shia militant youth. The Sunni community will be more
influenced by the ruling al-Khalifa family, some of whom are hardliners on the
threat from Iran and may regard the diplomatic shift as premature.
Washington’s influence in Bahrain is considerable, given the presence there of
the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters. Because of the economic benefits it
brings, the facility is not contentious in local political terms. Bahrain’s
diplomatic step is predictable but also brave. Even more than the UAE
normalization shift, Bahrain’s future relationship with Israel will need to be
protected from a range of dangers.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.
Bahrain FM to Asharq Al-Awsat: Relations with Israel
Do Not Undermine Commitment to Peace Initiative
Manama - Merza al-Khuwaldi/Asharq Al Awsat/September 13/2020
Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Dr. Abdul Latif al-Zayani underlined on Saturday the
Kingdom’s “firm and constant” stance towards the rights of the fraternal
Palestinian people. These rights top the Kingdom’s priorities, he told Asharq
Al-Awsat in an exclusive interview as Bahrain announced Friday it had reached a
US-brokered agreement to normalize relations with Israel.
He stressed that the deal is in line with the vision of King Hamad bin Isa
al-Khalifa to spread peace in the world. The agreement, Zayani went on to say,
does not undermine the 2002 Arab peace initiative.
How do you assess the future Bahraini-Israeli relations in wake of the peace
agreement?
The step is in line with King Hamad’s vision to spread the culture of peace in
the world. It is also in line with his directives to intensify efforts to
resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict according to the peace initiative.
Bahrain always stresses its firm and constant position towards the rights of the
fraternal Palestinian people, which are at the top of its priorities. The
Palestinian people must obtain their complete legitimate rights.
Some believe, however, that normalizing ties with Israel will pave the way for
other Arab concessions.
On the contrary, Bahrain stresses that it will not abandon Arab principles.
Palestinian rights are the most important of these principles. Bahrain has long
advocated the policy of peace and coexistence. Peace is the best strategic
choice to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Precedents throughout history
demonstrate that all of the Kingdom’s initiatives and decisions favor the
interests of the Palestinian people. No one can challenge the Kingdom in this
regard.
What happens now to the Arab peace initiative after Bahrain will normalize ties
with Israel?
Establishing diplomatic relations with Israel does not contradict with Bahrain’s
commitment to the Arab peace initiative and international resolutions. Bahrain
is a sovereign nation and it takes its decisions based on its national and Arab
principles and its higher security interests. Among those principles are the
Palestinian rights that cannot be abandoned.
Bahrain had from the start announced its support to the agreement between the
United Arab Emirates and Israel. Was this paving the way for the peace
announcement between Bahrain and Israel?
Bahrain is adding its efforts to those of the UAE in defending the causes and
interests of the ummah and in supporting the Palestinians to obtain their
rights. We highly appreciate the leading Emirati role in adopting diplomatic
ties as a form of strategic solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For
us, we underscore Bahrain’s support for all Arab partners in reaching a peaceful
solution that protects the interests of all Palestinians. We believe that the
declaration of peace between Bahrain and Israel creates better opportunities for
the Palestinian people in establishing an independent, stable and prosperous
state.
What is the Palestinian Authority’s position on the declaration of peace between
Bahrain and Israel?
I want to express my great appreciation to the Palestinian leadership, its firm
stances and constant efforts in safeguarding the Palestinian people’s rights and
working on achieving their legitimate interests. As for Bahrain, it underlines
its commitment to its efforts to empower the Palestinian people so that they can
achieve their aspirations like all other peoples in the world.
Do you expect more peace agreements to be declared soon between countries in the
region and Israel?
As I said before, every country has its own sovereignty and takes its decisions
based on its principles and higher interests. For Bahrain, we will continue to
spread the culture of peace and peaceful coexistence and shun violence. We
believe this is a historic step as part of its efforts to achieve global peace.
I would like to point out that countries that have established relations with
Israel have not decreased their support for Palestinian rights. Strategic
priorities are determined by each country to achieve their interests.
Why Iran is bent on escalating tensions in the Gulf
Raghida Dergham/The National/September 13/2020
Emboldened by its deal-making with China, it now seeks to intimidate its
neighbours in the Strait of Hormuz
Things could heat up in the already contentious Strait of Hormuz even before the
US presidential election is upon us on November 3. Tensions are expected to
rise, although they will depend on whether China accepts Iran’s invitation to
use its military ports, marking a major leap for Beijing in the region – and, as
a consequence of this new partnership, if the Iranian leadership excessively
flexes its muscles during its military drills, scheduled to be carried out this
month and next.
The US and China, the world's two largest powers, seem to be preparing
themselves for some sort of a standoff following a deterioration in relations
over a range of issues – especially as Beijing concludes strategic deals with
the Iranian regime, which is at loggerheads with Washington. If the deal
fructifies, Iran will become forward military base for China. Mindful of the
challenges it faces as a result of this arrangement, the US is already
developing long-term plans to contain Beijing and Tehran.
The expected rise in tensions could pose a huge headache for other nations in
the region – particularly those run by weak governments, such as Iraq and
Lebanon – and possibly even a regional power as big as Russia, which has
deepened its interests in war-torn Syria.
France simply needs to get tough on Iran
What's the US up to in the Middle East these days?
The world's great powers will soon face off in Lebanon
At this point, the pertinent questions to ask relate to the upcoming US
election: what would President Donald Trump do if he wins a second term, having
initially forged sound relations with China before the Covid-19 outbreak? What
would Joe Biden do if he becomes president?
There is more clarity about Mr Trump's policies vis-a-vis Iran and China: he
seeks to seal deals with both countries on his terms, yet he will not back down
if either one of them escalates tensions. Sanctions are his biggest weapon,
having proved effective against Tehran, and he will not hesitate to use them.
It might make sense to assume, therefore, that Beijing would be hoping to see Mr
Trump defeated in November. But that is an inaccurate assessment to make,
because there now exists a bipartisan consensus in Washington over the need for
the US to contain China's rise. America has demonstrated that when its national
interests are at stake, plans are made not over four years but four decades.
And yet, knowing that each individual will handle the challenge differently, the
world is closely watching the election saga.
Before that, though, It seems increasingly likely that both China and Russia
risk inviting American sanctions after October 18, when Washington's efforts to
prevent the lifting of the UN arms embargo on Tehran are expected to fail. With
Moscow and Beijing supposedly keen to sell arms to the regime, the Trump
administration will likely target Iranian, Chinese and Russian companies, should
agreements be signed.
Russia is already under pressure from the European Union, particularly Germany,
following the poisoning of its dissident Alex Navalny, allegedly carried out on
the orders of senior officials in Moscow, if you were to believe US Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo. Germany's insistence could lead to an open confrontation
between Russia and the West, possibly triggering European and American sanctions
against Moscow. The standoff could also hit economic co-operation between Russia
and Germany, especially in the energy sector. This will mark a significant
departure for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has long advocated the deepening of
Russian-European relations.
As serious as that may be, it is likely to pale in comparison to the troubles
brewing between the US and China.
Beijing, it appears, intends to counter possible American sanctions by ramping
up its investments across sectors and facilities inside Iran. Tehran, in turn,
has offered the People's Liberation Army Navy access to Iranian ports –
potentially altering the geopolitical landscape.
Iran, meanwhile, looks set to conduct large-scale military drills with the
purpose of intimidating its neighbours. Tehran will be emboldened by the
prospect of current US sanctions being nullified by Chinese financial support.
But these drills are dangerous, as they could lead to unexpected outcomes in the
short term. In the long term, however, Washington will hope that sanctioning
Chinese companies will turn the tables on the Chinese-Iranian project.
Irrespective, this is probably going to be a fateful battle for the US – and not
just the current administration.
As part of its strategy to curb Iran's influence in the region, Washington has
issued a stern warning to Hezbollah, Tehran's proxy in Lebanon, and those who
enable it. It has done so by imposing sanctions on former ministers Youssef
Fenianos and Ali Hassan Khalil, with the latter seen to be close to Nabih Berri,
Speaker of Parliament and leader of the influential Amal Movement.
Former Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and former Lebanese Public
Works and Transportation Minister Youssef Fenianos were sanctioned by the US for
providing material support to Hezbollah. EPA
Former Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and former Lebanese Public
Works and Transportation Minister Youssef Fenianos were sanctioned by the US for
providing material support to Hezbollah. EPA
Some within the ranks of the Free Patriotic Movement, to which President Michel
Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil belong, mistakenly assume the US will not
dare to impose sanctions on them. However, the message from the Trump
administration is clear: the sanctions list will spare no one who has given
cover to Hezbollah, or who has forgotten that partnering up with Hezbollah and
Hamas, in Palestine, amounts to a red line. We will have to wait and see if
other groups and individuals are also targeted, including former prime minister
Saad Hariri and veteran parliamentarian Walid Jumblatt.
Whether or not Iran can overcome the challenges it faces from the West inside
Lebanon, it is certain that the regime in Tehran will use the leverage it gets
from its deal-making with China to try and dominate the region. What the
specific consequences of this dangerous strategy are, only time will tell.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
The coming weeks are dangerous and have an Iranian-Chinese
flavor
Raghida Dergham/September 13/2020
If the United States imposes sanctions this week on major Chinese companies, and
if China accepts Iran’s invitation to use its military ports, marking a major
leap for Beijing into the Middle East and Gulf region, and if the Iranian
leadership excessively flexes its muscles during the military drills to be
carried out this month through 18 October in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,
then a US-Chinese military confrontation could erupt before the US election,
beginning in the South China Sea but probably not remaining confined there. The
United States and China are readying themselves for a major standoff as their
relations deteriorate, but also as China concludes strategic deals with Iran and
others. Under the deal, Iran will become a Chinese forward military base, but
the US will not stand idly by as China expands into vital strategic regions such
as the Strait of Hormuz and forges military partnerships that will change the
features of the Middle East and the Gulf region. Rather, Washington is
developing long-term strategic plans to contain China and Iran, who are today
the main threat to US national interests.
This means that the Arab region is about to witness more tensions, conflicts,
and tragedies. It means that Iran’s regional projects will be enabled and even
funded by China. It means Russia will have reasons to worry and recalculate as
the Chinese-Iranian partnership grows, having not long ago assumed it had
reached its objectives in Syria, yet today finds itself in the worst position
there. It means that countries dominated by Iran such as Iraq and Lebanon will
pay a high price for the Chinese-Iranian marriage, which will move to erase the
identity and character of these countries and turn their citizens to the Chinese
and Iranian models through subjugation and indoctrination.
All this is what will happen if the US does not intervene to stop this train in
its tracks, not only through sanctions but also through military action, if
needed. The question that many have on their minds is this: What could Joe Biden
do if he becomes president – or Kamala Harris if she takes over if Biden’s
health deteriorates after he becomes president? What would the incumbent
President Donald Trump do in a second term, having had forged good relations
with China before the current reality set in?
President Trump is clear in his policies vis-à-vis Iran and China. He wants to
conclude a deal on his terms with both countries, but he will not back down if
either one of them escalates. His weapon are the sanctions, which have proven
their effectiveness. Before Covid-19, US-Chinese relations had improved, and
many had discounted any confrontation between the two giants. But today, there
is a serious and growing worry of a confrontation, especially after the 25-year
agreement between China and Iran.
China is hoping to see Mr Trump defeated in the election, and believes Mr Biden
is the lesser evil, given that he is less extreme on both China and Iran. But
may not be an accurate reading, because the US establishment’s plans go beyond
the identity of the president and the party in power when it comes to higher and
long-term interests and calculations which span not four but forty years at a
time.
Regardless, however, who the president in the White House will be is an
important element of countries’ calculations, be they strategic or tactical and
political. Therefore, China, Europe, and the whole world are closely watching
the US election saga.
Donald Trump is betting on the upcoming debates with Joe Biden and is insisting
on holding them face to face. In President Trump’s view, the live debates will
put an end to Joe Biden’s presidential ambitions. In Mr Trump’s camps, some are
claiming Mr Biden is in bad health and argue that the face-to-face debate will
tire him and make him appear as a weak candidate, physically and
psychologically. So far, Mr Biden’s team has not agreed to any face-to-face
debates, but both sides believe the debates will be the decisive element, as is
the view of many international observers especially in Beijing and Moscow –
bearing in mind that Moscow is ‘voting’ for Mr Trump while Beijing is ‘voting’
for Mr Biden.
Both China and Russia risk US sanctions after 18 October, when US efforts to
prevent the lifting of the UN arms embargo on Iran are expected to fail. Most
probably, China and Russia intent to sell arms to Iran after that date, which
will prompt the Trump administration to impose major sanctions on Iranian,
Chinese, and Russian sectors and companies, some of which could collapse as a
result.
Russia is in an unenviable position these days, because of the European and
American backlash against the poisoning of Russian dissident Alex Navalny,
likely ordered by senior Russian officials, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
said earlier this week. The Kremlin’s problem lies particularly in Germany’s
position, as Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear there would be no
leniency on this matter, after German doctors concluded Mr Navalny had been
poisoned with a nerve agent.
The German positions could lead to an open confrontation between Russia and the
Western powers and trigger European and US sanctions on Russia. The standoff
could also hit Russian-German economic cooperation, especially the Nord Stream 2
project, highly important for President Putin and Gazprom. Recall that President
Trump had long lobbied Germany to end the pipeline project – and today, Ms
Merkel could cancel the $11 billion project because of the Navalny affair,
rather than at the request of Mr Trump.
Mr Putin’s loss of his German partner could be a fatal blow, bearing in mind
that Ms Merkel has been one of the biggest advocates of developing
Russian-European relations. Now, in a twist of fate, Germany is leading the
drive for European sanctions on Russia, unless Moscow agrees to cooperate in the
investigations. For the first time perhaps, the US will be the backer not the
initiator of sanctions on Russia. This time, these sanctions will not target
individuals, but the Russian state, to avoid targeting senior Russian officials.
However, this will not help contain the growing crisis which will not end with
European resolve weakening as the Kremlin hopes. Rather, the crisis is serious
and could be the worst to hit Moscow in the past two decades, as it affects the
core of Russian foreign policy.
But could this lead Russia into the Chinese lap? “Russia will not be able to
belong to the Chinese camp and it will not be able to come closer to the US”
said a Russian veteran of Russian-American and Russian-Chinese relations. The
crisis is big in the light of the global confrontation the US and China are
determined to go through with, and all countries of the world are closely
watching how it could evolve and escalate, unless a sudden breakthrough
de-escalates the tensions if the two sides accept that a confrontation would be
costly and destructive and must be avoided.
On the surface, China appears as if it intends to counter US sanctions with the
card of Chinese investments. China is planning investments in vital sectors and
facilities in Iran. In Lebanon, China is investing in Iranian influence, in
complete disregard for the concept of sovereignty it had long championed, and
will soon be able to boast of having a foothold on the Gulf and a foothold on
the Mediterranean.
Iran has offered the Chinese Navy the ability to fully access Iranian ports, and
has given it also the port of Beirut as a precious gift. Iran is not only
confident of Hezbollah’s control of the port and its future, it is also certain
Hezbollah’s allies will approve, including the president and his coterie.
The Chinese leadership certainly welcomes Iran’s generous offerings, returning
the favor with investments and funding, seeing this as a historic opportunity to
reposition itself and alter the global geopolitical landscape. Thus, China has
given Iran guarantees against the US, through the protection that its navy will
give Iranian tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s large-scale military drills, which will be used to deliver messages of
intimidation to its neighbors, will this time has a distinctly Chinese flavor.
These drills could prove dangerous and could lead to unexpected outcomes, as the
Iranian leadership is keen to flex its muscles before 18 October, in a message
to the Trump administration saying it has Chinese protection and no longer cares
about US sanctions, as China will give it a lifeline from their crippling
effects.
There is a view that holds that China’s lifeline could invalidate the effect of
the sanctions. Another view indicates that the US sanctions being prepared
against Chinese companies will turn the tables on the Chinese-Iranian project,
because this is a fateful battle for the US, and not just the current
administration.
There is no need to bet as the coming days and months will give us an answer,
but so far, it is clear that sanctions work and have an impact on China, Iran,
and its allies.
In Lebanon, the Trump administration has delivered a clear warning to
Hezbollah’s allies that they cannot escape from accountability, imposing
sanctions on former Minister Yusuf Finianos, close to Suleiman Frangieh who is
aspiring to become president, and former Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, who belongs
to the inner circle of Speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal Movement. Some in
the ranks of the Free Patriotic Movement, to which President Michel Aoun and his
son in law Gebran Bassil belong, mistakenly think the US will not dare impose
sanctions on them. However, the message from Washington is clear: Fasten your
seatbelts, there will be a rough ride and the sanctions list will spare no one
who had given cover to Hezbollah, or who had forgotten that partnering up with
Hezbollah and Hamas is a red line that cannot be blessed under any
justification. All eyes now are therefore on the likes of former PM Saad
al-Hariri, who cut a deal with Hezbollah, and MP Walid Jumblatt, who met with
Hamas leader Ismail Hanieyh.
Lebanon is a small but important arena to test and expand the new alliance
between China and Iran. But the most important arena may be in the Gulf region,
where the two countries are seeking to dominate with their dangerous new
strategy. Even Russia is not comfortable with this direction despite its close
relations with China and Iran, because it fears the new alliance could lead to
Iranian recklessness and other deals that China may conclude, with the Taliban
for example, and to confrontations with India as well as the US, which is
readying itself to respond to any encroachment by China and Iran.
How Donald Trump can still win re-election
Hussein Ibish/The National/September 13/2020
With less than eight weeks to go, US President Donald Trump's re-election
campaign is in serious, and apparently growing, trouble. But, although he just
suffered two of the worst weeks of a troubled presidency, it's not too late for
him to turn it around.
The news is not all disastrous for Mr Trump. A better-than-expected jobs report
certainly helps, although his claims that employment figures are doing
"fantastically well" are jarring, given the ongoing economic crisis.
The Republican Party is so centred on him it appears to stand for little else.
And, most encouragingly, the race seems to be measurably tightening in some
swing states, notably Florida and Nevada.
But the latest polls don't measure the impact of two devastating revelations
that could severely harm his chances, especially since he cannot afford to lose
many voters in his passionate but narrow coalition.
The new book by veteran journalist Bob Woodward, Rage, may prove to be one of
the biggest blows ever to Mr Trump's political career. He rashly granted Mr
Woodward 18 late-night interviews, most of which the reporter recorded with
permission.
Among many damaging revelations, one of the tapes from early February documents
Mr Trump explaining that coronavirus is airborne, extremely deadly, much worse
than the flu, and incredibly infectious. At the time and for many weeks after,
he assured the public that the virus was under complete control, would magically
disappear, was no worse than the flu, and everything would be perfectly fine.
What is it with Republican presidents and self-incriminating “smoking gun”
tapes?
The potential damage with swing voters, a decreasing but still crucial group,
could be devastating.
The White House at first denied Mr Trump had downplayed the virus, but he then
conceded he had done so in an effort to prevent public panic. But given his
penchant for stoking existential terror, especially on racial and ethnic
grounds, this is highly unconvincing. And naturally there was no panic when
these realities became widely understood.
Moreover, his aides confirm that the President was mainly concerned about a
potential negative impact on the stock market if he had been truthful.
It's hard to estimate how many died as a consequence of this deliberate,
admitted deception. But it is certainly a considerable figure as the US death
toll from coronavirus is rapidly approaching 200,000.
Indeed, what's striking is not only how clearly Mr Trump understood the nature
and likely impact of the virus, including a very early appreciation of its
deadly nature even for younger people, but also his relatively well-informed,
fairly lucid and reasonable tone. It almost sounds like a different person. Even
though he was a successful reality TV star, it's still jarring to realise how
much of his caustic, blustering public personality is in many ways a well-honed
act.
Perhaps almost as damaging is a report by The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg
that quotes highly placed former administration sources that Mr Trump routinely
disparaged dead and injured US soldiers as "suckers" and "losers". The President
has strenuously denied this, and allies have come to his defence.
But notably silent are two key former generals widely understood to be Mr
Goldberg's sources: former defence secretary James Mattis and former White House
chief of staff John Kelly. Both men have said that Mr Trump is unfit for office,
and neither has denied being a source for, or contested, Mr Goldberg's report.
While Mr Trump has tried to dismiss the article as a "fabrication by the bad
editor of a hostile publication", much or all of it was confirmed by Fox News,
Associated Press, The Washington Post, The New York Times and others.
George W Bush's former speechwriter David Frum, who also writes for The Atlantic
and The National, argues that, in effect "everybody knows this is true", not
only because its presumed sources are confirming the account by their silence,
but also because it is consistent with Mr Trump's overall mentality, previous
comments about killed, wounded and captured soldiers, and apparent
incomprehension of the concepts of national service and personal sacrifice.
For a politician who poses as an ultranationalist and champion of the military,
the revelation is potentially devastating. Surveys indicate his support within
the military rank and file has dropped considerably from 2016, and that was
before Mr Goldberg's article.
Despite appearances, Mr Trump is not immune from political damage. At some point
such attrition take its toll.
Yet there is time. He still faces three debates with his Democratic opponent,
former vice president Joe Biden, who could stumble badly or Mr Trump might
perform brilliantly. The President has reportedly not been preparing much, but
given his habitual reliance on "alternative facts" evidently conjured on the
fly, he may not need to. But the debates probably won't be a turning point. Mr
Trump keeps speculating about a coronavirus vaccine before the election, but he
knows he can't count on that or any other suddenly transformative event.
Instead, he's trying to forge a broader coalition than in 2016, including the
Republican base, white working-class voters in the Midwest, non-multinational
business interests and his strikingly strong support among Hispanic men under
the age of 50 (many of whom consider themselves white).
Mr Biden has held a lead of around seven points consistently for many months, a
highly unusual feat. As it stands, the election is shaping up to be a referendum
on Mr Trump, which is bad news for a historically unpopular president.
He could still change the narrative and alter the equation, but he's going to
need some unanticipated dramatic development, a spectacular blunder by his
opponent, or, the only one of these he could guarantee, a new way of presenting
himself. But he seems to have only one political persona, and it doesn't appear
well-suited to the moment. With little time left, he almost certainly needs to
change the basic parameters of the election in order to win. It is still
essentially Mr Trump versus Mr Trump, and the President is clearly losing.
*Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute
and a US affairs columnist for The National
Why Trump’s Iraq drawdown is a gift to Iran and Daesh
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 13/2020
Halving the number of US troops in Iraq is a terrible idea. Just ask the head of
US Central Command, Gen. Frank McKenzie, who in recent days warned of sharp
increases in Iran-backed attacks against US bases in Iraq.
McKenzie said Iranian attempts to provoke American forces were “very dangerous,
because I don’t think they have an appreciation for where our red line would be.
They might believe they can continue to attack us with rockets and missiles in
Iraq and we won’t respond, and that would be a very dangerous thing for them to
believe.” Although many of these attacks were low level, McKenzie warned that
these militias were signaling their readiness to massively escalate operations
when the time was right.
US President Donald Trump’s reduction in his Iraq force size, from 5,200 to
about 3,000 by November, comes at a time when Daesh has been regrouping and
regaining strength; it has an estimated 20,000 fighters, carries out about 60
attacks a month in Iraq alone, and has financial reserves of up to $300 million.
Trump’s repeated assertions that Daesh has been defeated is therefore a
dangerous delusion.
Drastic cuts in US force numbers in Syria (from about 2,500 to 500 since 2018)
were justified by the claim that US interests in Syria could be protected
through its presence in Iraq. This is obviously no longer the case; the
withdrawal gives Daesh and Iran a free hand, while leaving allies such as
Kurdish SDF fighters even further exposed. Over the past year, Iran sought to
recruit locals into its own militia structures in eastern Syria, enticing
fighters away from the US-backed SDF. This is in parallel with Turkish and
Russian efforts to undermine the SDF and expand their own spheres of influence.
The US has already closed several of its principal Iraq bases during 2020,
cutting its presence to a small number of concentrated locations. This is
perfectly logical from the perspective of being able to protect a sharply
reduced number of troops, but it leaves huge areas of the country where the US
can’t adequately monitor activities by Daesh and Shiite militants. Last year
Trump was ridiculed for claiming that he could use Al-Asad base in western Iraq
for watching what was going on in Iran.
This drawdown occurs in the context of Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi’s
confrontation with the Tehran-backed paramilitaries of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi. In
response to his efforts to curb their activities, the Hashd stages almost daily
attacks against Western and Iraqi assets, while assassinating activists and
enemies, and launching missiles against the heavily fortified Green Zone.
The Hashd have about 140,000 fighters, and have resisted all attempts at
demobilization or incorporation into the regular armed forces. Over the course
of 2020 names of new Hashd factions began to appear, such as Usbat Al-Tha’ireen
and Ashab Al-Kahf, apparently with the aim of establishing additional layers of
deniability for terrorist attacks, although the principal elements are closely
associated with Kata’ib Hezbollah.
So far, all Kadhimi has succeeded in doing is goading Kata’ib Hezbollah into
even more provocative behavior. Let’s not forget that these militias are on the
Iraqi state payroll, with a budget of over $2 billion. Militias have deeply
infiltrated the police and armed forces, and in particular the interior
ministry. There is therefore a grave risk that attempts to confront the Hashd
could lead to a fracturing of the military, without extensive international
support. This is a disastrous moment for the US to cut and run.
The US has already closed several of its principal Iraq bases during 2020,
cutting its presence to a small number of concentrated locations
Nobody is in any doubt that these troop withdrawals, along with parallel cuts in
Afghanistan, are being conducted for purely domestic US political purposes, and
Trump’s increasingly desperate attempts to seek re-election. Trump’s sharp
downward pressure on troop numbers has consistently been against the advice of
his generals.
Trump’s relationship with his military has become even more fraught after his
leaked comments calling US soldiers who died overseas “losers” and “suckers,”
while publicly accusing Pentagon chiefs of waging wars “so that all of those
wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything
else stay happy.” Overseas troop deployments are rarely popular, but they should
be based on objective assessments of strategic requirements — not a cheap way of
winning votes.
The British 2009 troop withdrawal from Iraq, followed by Obama’s 2011 pull-out,
were conducted in a context of intense attacks by Iran-backed paramilitaries
almost identical to those engaged in provocations today. Kataeb Hezbollah used
to broadcast its attacks against Coalition forces on its Ettijah TV channel.
This allowed these factions to perpetuate a narrative about their supposed
ability to defeat foreign “invaders.” Gen. McKenzie himself commented that the
aim of these Iran-sponsored attacks was to force America out. Trump is therefore
fatally playing into Tehran’s hands by being seen to accede to its demands to
leave the region, humiliatingly chased out by its Iraqi and Syrian proxies.
Given that Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen, have staged hundreds
of attacks against GCC civilian and economic targets, this withdrawal will send
a shiver throughout the GCC; notably in states such Kuwait, on the frontline
against these threats, and Bahrain, hundreds of whose terrorists received
training and weapons from Kata’ib Hezbollah and Quds Force. Trump is repeating
the mistakes of his predecessor by drawing down his forces at the wrong time in
the wrong context, creating a huge strategic vacuum to be filled by Iran and
terrorist groups. Obama’s 2011 Iraq pullout effectively allowed the birth and
extraordinary expansion of Daesh. What kind of monsters will Trump’s untimely
and unjustified pull-outs produce?
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Enough process, what we need is peace
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/September 13/2020
The best analysis of why the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is so
dysfunctional is that it has always been plagued by too much process, not enough
peace. If anything is to be learned from the UAE and Bahrain’s normalization of
ties with Israel, it is that peace can happen quickly and the process can come
later.
Of course, one cannot compare more than 70 years of occupation and the
legitimate calls to end it, as is the case with the Palestinians, with almost no
hostilities whatsoever between Israel and Gulf states.
Yes, there are divisions between Fatah and Hamas. Yes, there is corruption in
the Palestinian Authority. Nevertheless, as US President Donald Trump’s adviser
Jared Kushner has pointed out, the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to
miss an opportunity. When will they learn that every time they turn away from
the negotiating table, the pie only gets smaller? Compare what was offered to
them in 1999 and what is being offered now — and to this day, every time they
are offered less, the Palestinian leadership seems to want more. The loss of
historical Palestine is indeed a hard one to bear, but the Palestinians — indeed
all of us — must put emotions to one side and embrace the reality.
But the fault is not all on one side. By expanding illegal settlements and
continually adding insult to injury, Israel makes it impossible to reach a
viable deal. As the UAE demonstrated when it asked for freeze on annexation of
swaths of the West Bank, Israel needs to learn that there are rewards — and
worthy ones — for acting responsibly, in a way that encourages a peace deal
rather than undermines it. So, will Saudi Arabia follow the UAE and Bahrain? If
I had a few dollars for every time I’ve been asked that question, I would be a
wealthy man. The truth is Saudi Arabia is a sovereign state and it doesn’t
really beat about the bush when it comes to its positions — so should there be a
change in policy, everyone should rest assured that Riyadh will make it public.
So far, it has made its position clear: It remains committed to the Arab Peace
Initiative, which Saudi Arabia itself pioneered in 2002, stipulating a Palestine
state with its capital in East Jerusalem in exchange for normalization of ties
with the Kingdom (home to Islam’s two holy shrines) and all other Arab states.
The best analysis of why the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is so
dysfunctional is that it has always been plagued by too much process, not enough
peace.
Despite this position being affirmed time and time again, many Western pundits
over-analyze it; they are split between those who think Saudi Arabia would never
recognize or normalize ties with Israel, and those who seem to believe Riyadh is
secretly rushing to do so.
Much of this confusion, of course, is deliberately sown on the other side of the
Arabian Gulf. Many people might be led to think that Saudi Arabia and Iran share
the same views about Israel. That is neither true nor fair. Iran and its proxies
are on record as wanting to throw Jews into the sea and wipe Israel off the map.
They use this rhetoric to justify their destabilizing behavior in the region and
their deployment of armed militias — which, far from “liberating” Jerusalem,
instead occupy four Arab capitals.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s official position has always been reasonable,
and never anti-Semitic. Simply, Riyadh has always opposed the illegal occupation
of Palestinian territories as defined by the UN and international law. For
decades, it has advocated peace and gone out of its way to end Palestinian
divisions. Of course, nobody denies that there were elements in Saudi society
who were disgracefully anti-Semitic. But in the past four years there has been
serious reform of school curriculums, new hate-speech laws, and unprecedented
steps toward dialogue with and openness to other faiths — a virtual revolution
largely unreported by Western media.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself has met leaders from other religions,
including Judaism, both inside and outside the Kingdom. The Muslim World League,
led by Sheikh Mohammad Al-Issa (also a Saudi) has gone far in unequivocally
criticizing Holocaust deniers and encouraging a more open, more tolerant
interpretation of Islam. As for the Manama rapprochement, one of the funniest
things I read was an “analysis” suggesting that Bahrain, as a tiny Gulf state,
would never have been able to normalize ties with Israel without a green light
from Saudi Arabia. Not only is this derogatory to Bahrain, an independent
kingdom, it is also loaded — like asking: “Have you stopped beating your wife?”
The implication is either that Riyadh dictates policy to Manama, or that Saudi
Arabia will have an issue with Bahrain over its decision; neither of which is
correct.
In the end, even if the Palestinian issue is resolved and the whole region
normalizes ties with Israel, many misconceptions need to be corrected, and hate
must be extracted from the equation. That won’t be easy, but it starts by
admitting mistakes. I hope that the agreement with Bahrain and UAE helps end
hateful rhetoric against Arabs in Israeli media and books, and of course vice
versa. Arab News is putting our money where our mouth is. Today we begin a new
series called Minority Report, in which we will cover the plight of minorities
in the region, and Arab Jews will be a major focus. It starts with a brilliant
“deep dive” into the history of Lebanese Jews produced by my colleague Ephrem
Kossaify. Shalom!
*Faisal J. Abbas is Editor-in-Chief of Arab News. @FaisalJAbbas
Ties with Israel...Bahrain Knows What's Best for Itself
Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/September 13/2020
When the diplomatic relations between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv were announced,
Arab and international reactions emerged about this peace agreement, but the
striking response came from the Palestinian side, at the official and popular
levels.
It was an aggressive and offensive response by the components of the Palestinian
state, and undiplomatic by the Palestinian leadership.
What matters to us here is that this angry reaction has confirmed that the UAE
was right in its sovereign decision to search for its vision of peace in the
Middle East, after its steadfast positions were met with grudge and denial for
more than five decades. The same aggressive response is targeting Bahrain this
time.
The attackers should know that one cannot go back in time. The feverish attack
on the new Bahraini-Israeli peace agreement confirms not just to Bahrain but to
the rest of the Gulf people that the support for the cause for long decades has
resulted in nothing but aggression, attack, and ingratitude.
It also shows that there is more than one door to peace, not necessarily through
the Palestinian Authority, which was the first to establish relations with
Israel, and then comes now to consider the move as a stab in the back, only
because it does not meets its whims or desires.
When Bahrain faced in 2011 the most dangerous threat in its modern history and
the attempts to topple the rule, the real stances emerged. At the time, Iran
stood behind that coup attempt, providing both financing and planning, while the
leaders of Hamas and the Palestinian components continued to strengthen their
relationship with Tehran without any feeling of embarrassment. As Bahrain was
always keen to support the Palestinian cause, not a single Palestinian
demonstration in support of the Gulf country took place in the face of those who
wanted to bring down the government.
Therefore, why would Bahrain be deprived of its right to search for its
interests and proceed with its vision of peace in the region according to its
perspective? It goes without saying that the relations with Tel Aviv as far as
they are not directed against the Palestinians, are a necessity in light of the
current circumstances and the countries’ search for peace and stability in the
region.
I completely agree with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas when he said:
“Neither the UAE nor any other party has the right to speak on behalf of the
Palestinian people. The leadership does not allow anyone to interfere in the
Palestinian affairs or decide on its behalf about its legitimate rights in its
homeland.” The same statement will be repeated with Bahrain. But why does the
Palestinian leadership have the right to speak on behalf of the Emirati or
Bahraini people, and prevent them from taking sovereign decisions that are
compatible with their interests?! Certainly, the scenario will be repeated, and
the Palestinian Authority will call for a meeting of the Arab League following
the establishment of Israeli-Bahraini relations. But this will be considered a
baseless invitation because the normalization of relations between the two
states remains a sovereign right, and it is a matter that neither the Arab
League nor any other organization has the right to interfere with.
Unfortunately, the Palestinian Authority has no option but to accept the
regional realities surrounding it, and to deal with them instead of rejecting
them, or at least to stop attacking them. Evidently and as always, the Bahraini
flag and pictures of the Bahraini leadership will be burnt. The Bahrainis will
be insulted. There is no objection to including the Gulf people with them as
well.
Aggression, not rationality, will continue in response to a sovereign decision
and an undeniable right. Then, pens will dry up and pages will be turned. This
reaction will remain proof that states are late in searching for their desired
peace, instead of wasting decades of loyalty to a cause that its components have
harmed it more than others did.
We Got the Money, Where To Invest It?
Najib Saab/Asharq Al Awsat/September 13/2020
Contrary to what was expected, governments, central banks, international finance
institutions and development funds have succeeded in attracting a surplus of
liquidity to face the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. The money
collected from markets, at historically low rates, exceeded all estimates.
Worldwide, economic investments in national recovery plans are expected to
exceed $20 trillion for the next 18 months.
The problem, then, is not lack of liquidity but an excess of it. This new
liquidity is not only available in developed countries, but in emerging markets
as well. What we have to deal with today is how to allocate this liquidity in
the right way, to ensure the sustainability of the private financing sector, and
direct a fair share of this liquidity towards social and environmental
investments.
We have heard many promises in recent months that environmentally friendly
"green" projects will receive an ample share of liquidity earmarked for economic
recovery from the pandemic. This was confirmed by multiple countries,
development funds and financing institutions around the world, especially the
European Union and the World Bank Group. While the priority will be to address
the health complications of the pandemic, the largest part of the funds will go
towards stimulating the economy, in a way that protects and creates jobs.
However, despite the green promises, the desire to quickly increase demand and
raise national income figures threaten to divert a large part of the new money
into consumption rather than investments that create long term societal
benefits. While such spending is necessary to meet urgent challenges, it should
be limited, as the payoff is short-lived. It is the type of spending as a
“one-off” stimulus versus investing creating long term cash flows.
Major investments in infrastructure, such as water, energy, and transportation,
come under the umbrella of governments, even if the private sector participates
as a primary or partial owner, or operator. For the private sector to finance
projects with an environmental and social agenda, such as solar and wind energy,
energy efficiency, waste management and sustainable agriculture, it requires
guarantees which reduce risks. These usually come from international financial
institutions, development funds and governments, coupled with tax exemptions and
other fiscal benefits. What makes it more urgent now to allocate the bulk of the
liquidity to projects that preserve the integrity of the environment, is that
this also helps in combating the emergence and spread of viruses. This is
because it has become certain that many deadly viruses are due, in a large part,
to environmental causes.
Before the pandemic, a report issued by the Arab Forum for Environment and
Development (AFED) estimated that Arab countries would need a minimum of $230
billion annually until 2030 to support the achievement of the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). It also warned that the final price tag will increase
substantially, due to the cost of wars and conflicts, which triggered economic
losses of about one trillion since 2011. In addition, the financing gap will
widen significantly due to the catastrophic effects of the pandemic, and the
continuing destructive wars and conflicts in more than one country.
What governments, central banks, international financial institutions and their
development funds are able to secure is not sufficient to bridge this huge
financing gap, a large part of which must come from the private sector. There is
a growing array of interesting financing solutions on the market, ranging from
green bonds to hybrid financing tools. Globally, there has been a 23-fold annual
increase in green bond issuance, from $11 billion in 2013 to around $250 billion
in 2019. However, despite this rapid growth, green bonds are still far from
being a decisive contributor to financing the cost of sustainable development,
and certainly very far from the size of the global bonds market, which exceeds
$100 trillion. Green bonds in Arab countries, though still in their infancy,
have already made some shy debuts. In 2013 the African Development Bank issued
green bonds, the proceeds of which were partly used to finance two projects in
Tunisia and Egypt. In 2017, the National Bank of Abu Dhabi issued the first
green bonds in the Arab region, worth $587 million, due in 2022. In March 2020,
Egypt announced plans to issue the first green sovereign bonds in the region.
Attracting financing from the private sector for sustainable development
projects requires greater efforts, whether in infrastructure or investment
projects, large, medium and small. This includes encouraging investment of
savings, through financial tools that can attract remittances of immigrants,
develop financial markets, and attract direct foreign investments through
appropriate policies and incentives. Countries should develop mechanisms that
encourage partnerships between the private and public sectors, such as blended
finance funds, and use liquidity from donor institutions and development funds
as a first loss/equity tranche to obtain additional loans from the private
sector.
We must remember that financing sustainable development is not limited to major
infrastructure projects. The equitable distribution of development benefits
requires support for investment in small and medium enterprises, whether, for
example, in energy, water, food production, clean industry, or
environmentally-friendly tourism. As the private financial sector remains the
best and most reliable source of funding to finance such projects in a
sustainable manner, it is necessary for it to be supported by governments,
international financial institutions and development funds, as long as it
applies practical but stringent sustainability standards.
What is happening now in several regions of the world is that central banks,
government funds, international finance institutions and development funds have
started to increase their funding to financial institutions, corporates and
projects, at rates which are well below the market levels, in order to use the
surplus of cheap liquidity that they have collected for corona recovery. This
practice will potentially lead to mispricing actual credit/project risk,
creating future losses and threatening to put specialized private financing
institutions providing funding to commercial financial institutions, corporates
and projects, out of business. This will cause an irreparable economic and
financial damage, as today's surplus liquidity is temporary, and sustainability
requires adherence to market economy rules.
The main role of governments, central banks, international finance institutions
and development funds should be bridging funding gaps where the private sector
cannot do this, especially where perceived financial and political risks are
high; establishing the right conditions for private money flow, including
governance and compliance; and assisting in the creation of local debt and
equity markets. Instead of competing with the private financial sector in
investment financing, they should support the sector and channel investment
capital through it, while focusing on their main business.
Negotiating with Turkey will worsen the eastern Mediterranean crisis
Raman Ghavami/Al Arabiya/September 13/2020
In recent months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies in the
eastern Mediterranean region have posed numerous risks to the security and
interests of Greece and Cyprus. While Turkey and Greece have said they are open
to dialogue, both sides have stressed their interests must be met.
Erdogan doesn’t believe in dialogue to solve issues, unless talks happen under
his terms. Ankara leaving 2016 exploratory talks and rejecting the
recommendations of the Southern European Union Summit (SEUS) on the Cyprus issue
in January 2019 are clear indications of this. Thus, Ankara’s recent call for
dialogue should be treated with extreme caution.
European leaders must take a harder line against Turkey and realize that without
truly understanding Ankara’s regional ambitions, any talks are likely to fail.
No appeasement
The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently published an opinion piece
saying that the EU must impose ‘meaningful’ sanctions on Turkey unless Ankara
pulls its maritime assets from disputed waters. In the piece, Mitsotakis
addresses Europeans rather than Turks, and between the lines there is a strong
statement: Athens does not accept Erdogan’s territorial claims and warns that
Europeans would become irrelevant in the region if they continue to appease
Erdogan. For some in Europe, appeasement has been the policy of choice, and
European actors have failed to realize the true nature of the current Turkish
government’s foreign policy. And in doing so they have failed to consider the
consequences of this policy.
Turkey has altered its policies noticeably, appealing to a nationalistic
domestic base and pursuing more aggressive regional policies, but Europeans have
consistently failed to adopt new policies toward Ankara, favoring appeasement,
leaving the region at a crossroad.
This policy has been counterproductive as Turkey conducts espionage operations
in Europe, supports terrorist groups that threaten the security of Europe,
cooperates closely with Iran and Russia to undermine the interests of the West,
opposes peace deals in the region, purchases Russian S-400 threatening the
defense system of NATO, and weakens Western allies who have been fighting ISIS.
In short, Turkey has become increasingly adversarial, but European appeasement
of Turkey has only enabled Erdogan to continue carrying out his policies to the
detriment Turkey.
As a result, an emboldened Erdogan has brought his own country to the brink of
being a rogue regime and the region to the brink of military confrontation.
Indeed, as opposed to what certain voices claim, Erdogan’s policies are not
based on short-term tactics to win elections, but instead are mainly based on
strategic visions presented to him by presidential advisers Shaban Kardas and
Ali Balaci. These two figures perceive the West as an enemy and as a grave
danger to Turkey’s interests.
Erdogan’s policy moves indicated he will not cease his bellicose behavior unless
he is faced with unprecedented political and military force.
Turkey has made it clear that it does not accept the Treaty of Lausanne that
defined the borders of modern Turkey. As such, Erdogan has sought to expand
Turkey’s geographical borders under its 2023 vision, establishing a semi-Islamic
Caliphate with Ankara leading the Islamic world, and extending Turkey’s borders
into Greece, Bulgaria, Armenia, Iraq, and Syria.
While certain Western figures refuse to accept this new reality, opposition
leaders in Turkey are terrified of Erdogan’s conduct. Kamal Kilicdaroglu, the
leader of the opposition CHP party, has criticized Erdogan, alongside Qatar, for
facilitating the passage of terrorists through Turkey to Syria.
Although Erdogan’s policies are crippling the Turkish economy, in the eyes of
his radicalized supporters, this is the cost to be paid for a greater cause,
Turkey’s post-2023 vision.
Following Khomeini's footsteps for regional dominance
In Ankara’s quest for broader regional power, it has alienated traditional
allies, apart from Qatar, Pakistan, a few militia groups in Libya and Syria, and
partially Iran. In Erdogan’s thinking, which is rooted in Muslim Brotherhood
ideology, the fact that other Muslim countries do not support him is because
they are corrupted by the West.
In short, Erdogan is following the footprints of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder
of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who believed his regime would expel Western
forces from the region and export its “Islamic revolution” across the region.
As a result, without acknowledging Erdogan’s ideological views, any negotiations
or diplomatic attempts to solve issues with Ankara are highly likely to fail.
The ultimate goal of Erdogan is to undermine the interests of Western countries
in the region and his recent decisions such as opposing a US company oil deal in
Syria, exposing secret US military positions to Russians, using refuges as a
tool to pressure Europe, and his expansionist policy are clear indications.
Erdogan now needs a short-term victory to boost domestic support and galvanize
support from regional radical groups.
This is only possible if Europe accepts the Turkish president at the table and
start a round of negotiations. Turkey is currently isolated, the Turkish economy
is sinking and Ankara’s adventure in Libya is not going to plan. Consequently,
Erdogan’s position has been weakened at home. Offering Ankara a seat at the
negotiation table would be portrayed as a victory and enough for Erdogan to
boost his image again. However, once Erdogan gathers more support, he will come
back with an even more aggressive policy toward Europe.
The reason is simple: The Muslim Brotherhood ideology combined with
ultra-Turkish nationalism pits the West and other nations in the region as
enemies against Turkey.
Turkey is using coercive diplomacy to seek to discourage Europeans from
undertaking firm action.
Erdogan believes that this approach enables Turkey to have the upper hand, as he
believes Europeans are frightened of confronting Ankara militarily if needed.
However, Greece and its allies should not hesitate to retaliate rather than bow
down to Turkey’s threat. An escalation from Greece would present Ankara with a
dilemma – either end its destabilizing activities and face humiliation or,
escalate the situation and risk an armed confrontation.
Greece and Cyprus should reject any negotiations with Turkey, unless to discuss
the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Cyprus based on UN resolutions. Rather,
the European nations should continue their political and military cooperation
with France, UAE, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Greece and Cyprus
should press for crippling EU sanctions on Turkey and refer the case of eastern
Mediterranean to the International Court of Justice.
Any attempt to resolve issues with Turkey by inviting Erdogan to the negotiation
table before such actions would be viewed by Ankara as Nicosia and Athens’
Achilles heel. The sad reality is that Turkey will only obey by international
rules when faced with force.