English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 27/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Do you not know that your bodies are members of Christ? Should I therefore take the members of Christ and make them members of a prostitute? Never
First Letter to the Corinthians 06/12-20/:”‘All things are lawful for me’, but not all things are beneficial. ‘All things are lawful for me’, but I will not be dominated by anything. ‘Food is meant for the stomach and the stomach for food’, and God will destroy both one and the other. The body is meant not for fornication but for the Lord, and the Lord for the body. And God raised the Lord and will also raise us by his power. Do you not know that your bodies are members of Christ? Should I therefore take the members of Christ and make them members of a prostitute? Never! Do you not know that whoever is united to a prostitute becomes one body with her? For it is said, ‘The two shall be one flesh.’But anyone united to the Lord becomes one spirit with him. Shun fornication! Every sin that a person commits is outside the body; but the fornicator sins against the body itself. Or do you not know that your body is a temple of the Holy Spirit within you, which you have from God, and that you are not your own? For you were bought with a price; therefore glorify God in your body.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 26-27/2020

Health Ministry: 796 new Coronavirus cases
Second Round of Lebanon-Israel Maritime Talks Postponed
French Ambassador Says Won’t Give Up on French Plan
Rahi: New Government Must Draw Rescue Plan
Govt. of 'Specialists' to be Named by Parties amid 'Positive' Atmosphere
Report: Russian Delegation to Arrive Wednesday in Beirut
Panel Recommends Lockdown of Some Neighborhoods in Major Cities
Sami Gemayel after meeting Kubis: Logic of quotas is back
Geagea Says 'No Hope' in Coming Govt., Denies LF Arming Itself
Scuffles as Lebanese Armenians Rally at Turkish Embassy
Gunfire, RPGs as Baalbek 'Personal Dispute' Escalates
Israel Launches Military Drills Simulating Multiple-Front War
Lebanon Succeeds in Slowing down COVID-19 Spread
Oren: US election results could trigger Hezbollah
Saad Hariri’s return benefits Hezbollah – he must be held accountable/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/October 26/2020
Can Saad Hariri revive Lebanon?/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 25/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 26-27/2020

US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting state oil sector
Washington Grants Khartoum $81 Million in Humanitarian Aid
Iraq Protesters, Police Clash Again One Year after Uprising Started
Kurdish Officials Say they Foiled Attack on Diplomats in Northern Iraq
Turkey Angered by Egypt’s Criticism of its Intervention in Syria
Posters of Asma Assad Heavily on Display at Popular Event in Syria’s Hama
Yemen Makes ‘Concrete Progress’ in Forming New Govt.
Egypt’s National Authority Denies Receiving Any Complaints Affecting Elections
Three-Way Talks on Blue Nile Dam to Resume Tuesday -AU Chairman
US approves $2.37 billion more in potential arms sales to Taiwan: Pentagon
Suspected Kurdish suicide bombing in southern Turkey: Report
78 Dead, Over 90 Hurt in Russian Raid on Pro-Turkey Syria Rebels
Head of Muslim League on Prophet cartoon: We are not against freedoms, only hatred
Turkey Calls for Boycott of French Goods amid Macron Row
Iraqis Protest Macron Comments outside French Embassy
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27/2020

Iran's Mullah, the Master of Terror Cells in the World/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 26/2020
Why Does Barr Let Wray Lie and Flout the Law?/Chris Farrell/Gatestone Institute/October 26/2020
The Captain of the Mighty Power/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 26/2020
Yes, COVID-19 Is More Serious for the Elderly. So What?/Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
The Shine Is Coming Off the Boom Stocks of 2020/Conor Sen/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
Zero Hour Is Coming for Emissions. Believe it/David Fickling/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
Biden rejoining the Iran deal is easier said than done/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Sunday 25 October 2020
Dangerous road ahead as Iraq gripped by militia violence/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October 26/2020
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 26-27/2020

Health Ministry: 796 new Coronavirus cases
NNA/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Monday, the registration of 796 new Coronavirus infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 72186. It also reported 14 death cases during the past 24 hours.
 

Second Round of Lebanon-Israel Maritime Talks Postponed
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
A second round of US-backed negotiations to demarcate the sea border between Lebanon and Israel was postponed for “technical” reasons, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. The session was scheduled to be held today but was postponed at the request of the US team, prominent sources told the daily. They said that the Lebanese and Israeli sides have reportedly responded to an American request, supported by the leadership of UNIFIL, to postpone today's session for another 48 hours. The delay was attributed to the American delegation, led by Ambassador John Dorscher, who is still awaiting the arrival of technical equipment needed to complete the task assigned.Lebanon and Israel began indirect talks on October 14 over their disputed maritime border with American officials mediating the talks that both sides insist are purely technical and not a sign of any normalization of ties. The talks began at a U.N. post along the border known as Ras Naqoura, on the edge of the Lebanese border town of Naqoura. The Lebanese delegation will speak through U.N. and U.S. officials to the Israelis

French Ambassador Says Won’t Give Up on French Plan
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The new French ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Griot, confirmed that her task in Lebanon was to carry out a “specific mission” to follow up on the French plan launched by French President Emmanuel Macron, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday.
Griot said that Macron has chosen her for the task because “I resemble him a lot and he knows well that I will not give up,” she said in remarks to the daily. Griot said in order for the French initiative to succeed, all political parties are required to join efforts to help Lebanon, noting that “France will work to help Lebanon through cultural and health cooperation, not just economic and political.” France will provide “effective” assistance in all fields in Lebanon, said the Ambassador, noting that “we will continue talks with all political parties with regard to security, and we will support constructive measures.” She said France is undertaking talks internationally “in the interest of Lebanon," noting that "Paris has explained to the international community that the stability of Lebanon is a necessity for all, and that this stability can be achieved through the French reform paper.”

Rahi: New Government Must Draw Rescue Plan
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi declared at the opening of the Synod on Monday that the future government must be “distinguished” from its predecessors and is required to draw up a rescue plan. On the outbreak of coronavirus, Rahi said: “It was imperative that the relevant ministries and unions embark on coordinating efforts to combat the virus.” He called for immediate reforms to face Lebanon’s multiple crises including the financial and economic crisis, the electricity crisis, corruption and the independence of the judiciary.

Govt. of 'Specialists' to be Named by Parties amid 'Positive' Atmosphere
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The new government will not comprise political figures but rather specialists named by the political parties and there is an attempt to keep the energy portfolio with the Free Patriotic Movement, media reports said on Monday.
“The possibility of forming the government this week has been ruled out and Hizbullah is clinging to the health portfolio, which is also demanded by Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat,” MTV quoted unnamed sources as saying. The sources added that Jumbat could be granted only a single portfolio at a time Lebanese Democratic Party chief Talal Arslan is insisting on getting a portfolio for his party despite his boycott of the binding parliamentary consultations. An informed source meanwhile told MTV that the atmosphere of the negotiations is positive and that the government will comprise 20 or 24 ministers. “Hariri has been very reticent and he has told (President Michel) Aoun that the principle of the rotation of portfolios will apply to all ministries except for the finance portfolio, which will go to the Shiite community,” the source added. LBCI television meanwhile quoted unnamed sources as saying that should no obstacles arise, Hariri might submit a line-up to Aoun once he finishes his consultations with the blocs, within two or three days.

Report: Russian Delegation to Arrive Wednesday in Beirut
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
A "high-ranking" Russian delegation is expected to arrive in Beirut mid week for “very important” talks with senior Lebanese officials in light of a crunching economic and financial crisis in the country, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. The delegations’ visit comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov postponed a planned visit this month to the capital. Prominent diplomatic sources told the daily the delegation will arrive Wednesday on a two-day official visit to discuss the developments in Lebanon and the region. Head of the Russian National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mezentsev will lead the delegation composed of the Kremlin’s special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev, Foreign Ministry’s envoy for Syria Alexander Kinschak and a number of senior military and civilian assistants, according to the sources. They said the composition of the delegation reflects the “importance” of the visit in light of an emerging “correlation” between the Lebanese and Syrian files, with their various political and strategic aspects. They also said it reflects Russia’s “new interests in the Lebanese file.” Moreover, Russia intends to “keep pace” with the ongoing contacts related to the French initiative to back the efforts aiming to for solutions to steer Lebanon out of the crisis, added the sources.

Panel Recommends Lockdown of Some Neighborhoods in Major Cities
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The Health Ministry’s scientific panel will submit a recommendation to the country’s national anti-coronavirus committee on the need to lock down some neighborhoods in major cities, including the capital, in order to contain the spread of the virus, caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan said on Monday. “Sometimes the infection originates in the city before moving to rural areas, not the opposite,” Hassan explained. “The coronavirus infection rate is still high and has not dropped, despite the partial lockdown of some areas,” he said. Stressing the need to “lower the number of infections,” the minister said the issue is “directly related to the behavior of citizens.”He added that citizens’ cooperation would spare the economic, commercial and touristic sector a partial or general lockdown.

Sami Gemayel after meeting Kubis: Logic of quotas is back
NNA/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Lebanese Kataeb Party Chief, MP Sami Gemayel, on Monday welcomed at his Bekfaya office the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis. Following the meeting, MP Gemayel regretted that no one has learned from the past, saying "Lebanon needs a different experience instead of recovering the old experiences that would lead us once more to a dead end." Gemayel criticized the return of quota sharing, saying "We are back to the logic of quotas and making the same mistakes by forming a government similar to its predecessors, which will carry with it contradictions."
Gemayel also regretted that no one has realized the seriousness of the current stage, stressing the importance of forming a government free of the political parties, in order to be able to restore the confidence of the people and the international community.

Geagea Says 'No Hope' in Coming Govt., Denies LF Arming Itself
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Monday said it seems no hopes can be pinned on the new government in light of the way it is being formed. In an interview with Radio Free Lebanon, Geagea said the LF will only grant its vote of confidence to “a government of real independents formed of competent and specialist ministers who know exactly how to work.” “But it seems that there is no hope in this (new) government, because its formation has started by promising the Shiite duo and the Progressive Socialist Party that they would be granted certain portfolios,” Geagea added. He warned that what happened with the Shiite duo will eventually “apply to the Free Patriotic Movement and others.”“So how will this government be? At best, it will be similar to (caretaker) PM Hassan Diab’s government, so what would be the result? Nothing but further waste of time,” Geagea said. Separately, Geagea dismissed “all allegations that the LF party is taking up arms.” “Lies, lies, lies,” the LF leader said of the claims, noting that some “attack” the LF that way because they cannot accuse it of “corruption.” “Can a party arm itself secretly? They are not speaking of 200 gunmen but rather of 15,000. Where can you hide them?” Geagea added sarcastically. “Those who have any information, let them put them on the table, and we will file a lawsuit against anyone speaking this way without providing evidence, because this is a blatantly false accusation,” the LF leader went on to say.

Scuffles as Lebanese Armenians Rally at Turkish Embassy
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Lebanese Armenian students and the youth sector of the Tashnag Party staged a protest Monday outside the Turkish embassy in Rabieh.
The protesters condemned “the breach of the truce agreement between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan and Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in the conflict (with Armenia) over the region,” the National News Agency said. “Protesters hurled stones and firecrackers at security forces tasked with protecting the embassy as scuffles erupted between the two sides,” NNA added.

Gunfire, RPGs as Baalbek 'Personal Dispute' Escalates
Naharnet/Monday, 26 October, 2020
A personal dispute in the Baalbek neighborhood of al-Sharawneh on Monday escalated into gunfire, including the firing of rocket-propelled grenades, the National News Agency said. NNA said the clash, between members of the same clan, caused material damage. Parts of a shoulder-fired missile meanwhile landed near a journalistic crew in the vicinity of the Baalbek ruins, damaging a car parked in the area. Such clashes are frequent in the Baalbek district, especially in al-Sharawneh.

Israel Launches Military Drills Simulating Multiple-Front War
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The Israeli army launched a series of extensive military drills, dubbed "Lethal Arrow", simulating a multiple-front war with the Lebanese Hezbollah that could expand to include the entire northern front with Syria and Iran, and potentially the Gaza Strip as well. In a statement, the army said the drills aimed to improve the army’s attack ability and testing all levels of the military in an integrated way. The exercise would simulate a “multi-front scenario focused on the northern arena,” adding that the aim of the exercise is to improve the army’s offensive capabilities at all levels, it added.
The statement indicated that the drills will also implement “the victory concept and generate new procedures between key headquarters.”The joint exercises will include headquarters, conscripted troops, and reservist forces, alongside the air force, navy, and ground forces, as well as the intelligence, technology and logistics, teleprocessing, and cyber defense directorates. The exercise is part of the pre-scheduled military's 2020 training plan, the army said, announcing that an elevated level of Israeli fighter jets, attack helicopters, and other aircraft traffic, will be noticeable in the airspace, as well as an increased number of security forces, vehicles. Israel's Defense Minister, and alternate Prime Minister, Benny Gantz commented on the exercise, saying it is a “critical drill for maintaining the operational capability of our forces that must be held.” Gantz indicated that thousands of officers and soldiers participating in the drills are working to be prepared to face all challenges at the borders and beyond, alongside the army’s role in combating the coronavirus. The Israeli army conducted several exercises this year, including maneuvers with US and European forces. It also held joint drills with forces from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Greece. The domestic exercises included drills carried out in a specially-built village similar to the Lebanese villages and areas in Gaza Strip. The forces carried out numerous exercises including the evacuation of Israeli citizens from Israeli towns in the Upper Galilee and in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip, invasion of Lebanese villages, armed clashes with Hezbollah fighters, and a similar incursion in the south.

Lebanon Succeeds in Slowing down COVID-19 Spread
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Lebanese authorities announced that they had succeeded in slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country, due to the measures imposed over the past two weeks. The Prime Minister’s Adviser for Health Affairs, Petra Khoury, said on Sunday that the preliminary figures show that the change that occurred during the 14-day period had “straightened the curve of positive cases”. “We have achieved some victories and have slowed the spread. So far, the number of positive cases has increased by only 2.4% compared to 50.9% in the previous 14-day period, and our mortality rate is 7% lower. But we need to reduce the number of cases due to the very low capacity of our intensive care units,” she said. Khoury stressed that the matter required additional measures in major cities (Beirut and the suburbs), saying: “We can control the spread, protect our loved ones, and prevent additional deaths, only with government enforcement and civil responsibility, and it is up to us to continue changing the curve.” Lebanon ranks 59th in the world in terms of total infections, and 78th in the cumulative number of deaths from the coronavirus. However, Lebanon’s ranking was surprising in terms of the number of active positive cases and the level of critical cases, landing it 33rd place. The authorities have enforced new security measures to prevent the spread of the virus. On Sunday, Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi issued a decision to isolate 55 new towns, based on the recommendations of the relevant health committees.
 

Oren: US election results could trigger Hezbollah
Joshua Robbin Marks/Jerusalem Post & The Media Line/October 26/2020
Iran could use its Lebanese proxy to lash out, former Israeli ambassador to Washington tells The Media Line.
The threat level to Israel from Hezbollah hinges on the results of the November 3 presidential election in the United States, Michael Oren tells The Media Line.
The former Israeli ambassador to the US during the Obama Administration says the Israeli Defense Forces should be factoring in Iran’s reaction to the re-election of Republican Donald Trump or the victory of his Democratic challenger, former vice president Joe Biden.
On Sunday morning, the IDF launched a military exercise focusing on the northern front. The simulation of a war with the Lebanese Shia Islamist militant group is being called “Lethal Arrow” and is expected to end on Thursday afternoon.
“Hezbollah takes its orders from Iran and Iran is waiting to see what happens with the election, because if Donald Trump wins, Iran can do one of two things. It can negotiate under Trump’s humiliating terms or it can pick a fight with Israel,” Oren says.
“If it picks a fight with Israel, it’s going to pick a fight with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah has some 130,000 rockets buried under 200 villages in southern Lebanon, and the only way to eliminate that threat would be to go village to village, house to house. And that’s what they [the Israeli soldiers] are training on,” continues Oren.
The military drill is the largest of the year, involving thousands of troops from different branches of the military even though it was scaled back due to the coronavirus outbreak. According to an IDF statement, the exercise is following strict health regulations.
The IDF canceled its annual general staff “Keystone” exercise scheduled for September because of the pandemic.
Analysts point out that “Lethal Arrow” is in line with other military exercises conducted by the IDF as part of long-range plans, and is not in response to any specific threat.
“At least once a year there is a major drill. Sometimes with the forces, sometimes without forces like the present one which is mostly simulation,” Dr. Meir Elran, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, tells The Media Line. “It has nothing to do with the external situation, with any military tension that goes on around Israel. It has to be taken as a regular drill and not a consequence of any specific or urgent needs.”
Still, the IDF acknowledges the threat posed by Hezbollah in explaining why the exercise is focused on the northern front.
“The Hezbollah terror organization poses the most immediate threat against Israeli civilians with its massive arsenal of rockets aimed at Israel,” IDF international spokesman Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus tells The Media Line.
While the northern border has been relatively quiet since the 2006 war with Hezbollah, there are increasing tensions and Israel must maintain military readiness, analysts say.
The Syrian border with the Golan Heights has been an occasional flashpoint. Recent incidents in Syria include an airstrike in July outside Damascus that killed a member of Hezbollah, with the terrorist organization blaming Israel for the attack and threatening retaliation.
Prof. Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, speculates that the changing position toward Israel in the Arab world reflected by recent normalization deals with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan might motivate Hezbollah into action against the Jewish state.
“They want to show some activity. Muqawama, “struggle” in Arabic, the continued struggle against Israel, the long struggle,” Inbar tells The Media Line. “It could cross their mind to demonstrate that the struggle in the Arab world against Israel is not over.”
 

Saad Hariri’s return benefits Hezbollah – he must be held accountable
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/October 26/2020
حنين غدار: عودة سعد الحرير لرئاسة مجلس الوزراء هي لمصلحة حزب الله ومن هنا عليه أن يتحمل المسؤولية ويحاسب
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/91790/hanin-ghaddar-saad-hariris-return-benefits-hezbollah-he-must-be-held-accountable-%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%b3%d8%b9%d8%af/

One year after mass protests pushed him to resign, Saad Hariri is back as Lebanon's prime minister-designate, nominated by 65 out of 128 members of parliament.
Although Hezbollah did not specifically nominate him as prime minister, it was clear that the group supported his designation and worked with most of their allies to secure his nomination, and to make sure he understands Hezbollah’s sway over his efforts to form a government.
Named last Thursday, Hariri pledged to swiftly create a government of experts not affiliated to the country's traditional political parties, calling it Lebanon's "only and last chance." He also said that he would form “a government of non-partisan specialists, whose mission is to implement the economic, financial and administrative reforms contained in the French initiative paper.”
But Hariri himself is part of the old political system, and was named and supported by the same traditional political parties that he claims he wants to fight. So what gives? How will Hariri’s fourth premiership be any different? And should the international community trust these claims?
In addition to his intricate partnership and alliances with major political parties, Hariri also faces major challenges to be able to form a government that must address a long list of financial issues, such as the banking crisis, the collapse of the local currency, the high rates of poverty, and the inflation of government debt. Hariri’s government will also have to deal with the rise in COVID-19 infections and the financial and humanitarian repercussions of the August 4 explosion at Beirut port.
But most importantly, Hariri will have to address other issues that have been the focus of the international community - particularly the Hezbollah arms, precision missiles, and the group’s resources in Lebanon.
As a prime minister, Hariri cannot avoid Hezbollah’s access to illegal border crossings, smuggling, airport and border control, and the locations of the precision missiles facilities that were recently outed by the Israeli government and defense forces.
As for corruption, Hariri will have to address a specific list of reforms that were clearly requested by the CEDRE conference, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Without implementing these reforms, aid packages will not be sent to bail out Lebanon, and the financial crisis that Lebanon is facing will not be resolved. All that Hariri cam do, without implementing reforms, is to facilitate some humanitarian aid for the needy in Lebanon.
The main question today is whether Hariri can deliver or not. All indication say that Hariri – being the preferred candidate of the political class, including Hezbollah – will not work against the interests of this elite and their corrupt channels. Hezbollah and its allies would not have supported his premiership if they did not have guarantees that he would protect their interests. It would be very hard to imagine that Hariri would fight the corruption of those who supported him, or stop Hezbollah’s access to the state institutions and border crossings.
But Hariri can sell the illusion that he can fight the corruption, hoping that he will get French backing, and eventually US backing - that is if a new Biden administration takes over in 2021. He would at least be able to reduce the pressure on himself and the political elite in Lebanon, but he won’t be able to sell this illusion to those holding the bailout money.
The CEDRE, IMF and World Bank will still require reforms. Meanwhile, the Lebanese people’s suffering will continue and the financial crisis will only worsen, moving Lebanon further into the Iranian club, where the power of Iran’s proxies is prioritized over people’s basic needs.
As for Hezbollah, although their strategic patience is becoming harder to maintain, they would rather wait for a new Iran deal than give up power, even if takes years.
Eventually, they will resume receiving US dollars from Iran, and with a severe shortage of dollars in Lebanon, this will make their position, power, and access stronger. With Hariri as PM – as we have seen in his previous term as PM - Hezbollah’s power over him and the rest of the state institutions would only increase.
Therefore, it is crucial for the international community to avoid the Hariri illusion, and make sure that he is held accountable while he is forming the government, not afterwards.
Therefore, sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies should continue, despite the fact that they agreed to resume the maritime border negotiations, and using the congressional Magnitsky Act to target corrupt politicians as soon as possible would be crucial to insure both the corrupt political class and Hezbollah do not get away with their plan of buying time and enforcing the status quo.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.

Can Saad Hariri revive Lebanon?
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 25/2020
Saad Hariri, who was re-designated Prime Minister of Lebanon on Thursday, seems to have the tacit backing of a variety of local, regional and international actors. This means that, in return for the chance to form a government, he will inevitably expose himself to pressures from all those actors, including France, Iran and the US. Chief among them, of course, is the Iranian regime, which seeks to consolidate its interests in the country.
For its part, the Trump administration has just two priorities when it comes to this troubled Arab state. One is the ongoing talks between Lebanon and Israel to demarcate a maritime border to facilitate oil and gas exploration by both countries. The other is accountability of all the local political players aligned with Hezbollah, a proxy of Tehran that happens to be a formidable political party in Lebanon but is deemed a terrorist organisation by Washington.
The latter, however, makes Mr Hariri’s task of leading his country out of economic disrepair extremely difficult, given that Tehran remains determined to keep Lebanon in its cold embrace and resist the West’s attempts to draw Beirut closer to it with the help of economic assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
Mr Hariri has opted to return to the traditional practice of government formation in Lebanon, even if this means disregarding popular opposition to it. Indeed, the public has long tired of the “confessional” system, whereby the highest offices are proportionately reserved for representatives from certain religious communities. Despite its shortcomings, the year-long protest movement across Lebanon has made clear its rejection of the entire political class, which continues to hold on to power despite bringing the country to its knees.
The movement, which forced Mr Hariri’s resignation in January, will have its doubts about his stated mission of forming a technocratic government. After all, he is part of the political system that the uprising rejects. One doesn't doubt Mr Hariri's ability to include “fresh faces” in his upcoming cabinet, as his Iranian backers will understand his need to portray himself as a reformer. But he will struggle to enact much-needed economic and political reforms, given how beholden he and his fellow ministers will be to vested interests in Beirut and Tehran.
Mr Hariri may already have conceded to a key demand made by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement to pick a finance minister from the Shiite community (which forms their voter base). It was a point of contention that forced Mustapha Adib to resign as prime minister-designate last month. If the influential French and US governments have indeed backed Mr Hariri’s expected concession in this regard – as a trade-off to facilitate the success of the so-called “French Initiative” to rescue the country – then one might well wave goodbye to any hopes of a new Lebanon. Handing over control of the finance ministry to someone with the support of the so-called “Shiite Duo” will effectively mean shelving any hopes of establishing accountability and transparency with regard to how business is done in the country.
America’s position may be problematic. The Trump administration is naturally suspicious of the ties that exist between Mr Hariri and Hezbollah, but it is unwilling to obstruct the French initiative at this stage. If it, however, ends up legitimising Iran’s strategy in Lebanon – based on the consolidation of Hezbollah’s dominance over the government and perhaps even the army – then Washington is likely to stand up to Paris. Mr Hariri’s position is unenviable and might even become untenable – even though he may believe that he is on a rescue mission.
It is important to remember that Iran’s strategy for “renewal” in Lebanon essentially translates to the formation of a stable government that would cement Beirut’s subordination to Tehran. But it would be carried out through a non-provocative formula that includes the introduction of new names to the government who are ultimately loyal to Hezbollah. This also includes the removal of the Lebanese army from politics and its eventual subjugation. Call it a “soft and flexible” hegemony, if you like.
Mr Hariri’s balancing act will therefore be a tricky one, especially as he banks on continued regional and international support, as well as pledges of economic assistance and financial aid from the West. He will also be aware that the next few months will be critical for Lebanon, and his own political fortunes, irrespective of whether Donald Trump wins re-election or is succeeded by Joe Biden. US sanctions on Iran, Hezbollah and their allies in Beirut will continue, at least for the foreseeable future.
As for the US presidential election itself, there is increasing uncertainty over which candidate will secure victory – or whether victory will be decisive. With less than two weeks to go, pollsters remain cautious, particularly after many of them erroneously predicted a Hillary Clinton win in the 2016 election.
Experts I recently spoke to are divided, too, although there is little doubt regarding US strategy in the Middle East, should Mr Trump get re-elected.
Paula Dobriansky, the former under secretary of state for democracy and global affairs, predicted a Trump win. Re-election, she said, would naturally mean the continuation of his administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. Michael Gfoeller, the former political adviser and regional co-ordinator for South Central Iraq in the erstwhile Coalition Provisional Authority, said as much. In fact, he even predicted an escalation in sanctions on Iran that would continue to curtail its oil exports and cripple its economy.
Carl Bildt, the former prime minister of Sweden, predicted a Biden victory, which he said would enable a return by all of the world's stakeholders to the negotiating table in the new president's bid to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran.
How exactly this will affect the future of Lebanon, only time will tell.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 26-27/2020

US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting state oil sector
Reuters/Monday, 26 October, 2020
WASHINGTON: The United States on Monday imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic’s oil sector, including the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum, in Washington’s latest action to increase pressure on Tehran. The US Treasury Department in a statement said it was slapping sanctions on key actors in Iran’s oil sector for supporting the Quds Force, the elite foreign paramilitary and espionage arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blacklisted by the United States. “The regime in Iran uses the petroleum sector to fund the destabilizing activities of the IRGC-QF,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have soared since Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal struck by his predecessor President Barack Obama and began reimposing US sanctions that had been eased under the accord. The minister of petroleum, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and National Iranian Tanker Company were also blacklisted alongside other individuals and entities in Washington’s move on Monday, which freezes any US assets of those blacklisted and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. The Treasury also imposed sanctions on Mahmoud Madanipour and Mobin International Limited, accusing them of entering into an agreement with Venezuelan state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to ship gasoline obtained from NIOC to the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The British-based companies of Madanipour, Mobin Holding Limited and Oman Fuel Trading Ltd. were also blacklisted. Mobin International and Oman Fuel have said they were the owners of the cargo aboard several tankers confiscated by US authorities in August. The US Justice Department said the cargo was destined for Venezuela, whose oil industry is also under US sanctions, but the companies denied in court filings that Venezuela was the destination.Iran has sent two other flotillas carrying fuel to gasoline-short Venezuela, and they entered the South American country without US interference.

Washington Grants Khartoum $81 Million in Humanitarian Aid
Washington- Moaz Al-Omari/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
The United States announced Sunday $81 million in humanitarian assistance to respond to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. US Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Mike Pompeo said that Washington has allocated the “humanitarian aid to the Sudanese people affected by the crisis the country is going through.” In a press statement, Pompeo said the funding included more than $64 million from the US Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance and $17 million from the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration.
Pompeo pointed out that the sum brought the total US humanitarian response for vulnerable people, including those affected by recent flooding as well as refugees and those displaced by conflict in Darfur, South Sudan, and elsewhere in the region to more than $436 million in Fiscal Year 2020, including for the COVID-19 humanitarian response. “Sudan continues to confront a number of humanitarian challenges, including significant population displacement caused by inter-communal violence, which has endangered civilians and led to deteriorating humanitarian conditions,” he said, adding that the lingering effects of conflict, economic shocks, and recurrent environmental hazards, such as drought and the worst flooding in more than a century, have resulted in more than nine million people in need of humanitarian assistance. “We will continue to promote unfettered humanitarian access throughout the country for humanitarian organizations, including unrestricted access to vulnerable people without requiring military or intelligence service involvement or permission,” he said. His statement noted that the financial assistance would cover the fields of protection, shelter, essential healthcare, emergency food assistance, education, and water, sanitation, and hygiene services for refugees, internally displaced people, and vulnerable host communities. “The United States will continue to stand with the people of the region as they work to build a brighter, more hopeful future, moving away from the conflicts of the past,” Pompeo said in his statement.

Iraq Protesters, Police Clash Again One Year after Uprising Started
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Dozens of Iraqi protesters again clashed with security forces in Baghdad Monday, a day after a rally marked the first anniversary of the start of nationwide mass anti-government demonstrations. Police fired stun grenades and tear gas at protesters who were burning tires and hurling rocks on the strategic Al-Jumhuriyah bridge across the Tigris River leading to the highly-fortified Green Zone, an AFP photographer reported. The bridge, barricaded by towering concrete walls, separates the Green Zone from Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the old and new demonstrations.
The highly-secure Green Zone, where government offices, parliament and the US embassy are located, is off-limits to ordinary Iraqi citizens. In a repeat of last year's demonstrations, rallies were also held in Shiite-dominated southern towns and cities. Overnight in the city of Karbala, which was a hub of demonstrations last year, protesters skirmished with riot police who eventually fired live bullets into the air to disperse them. In Diwaniyah, young demonstrators set car tires on fire while in Nasiriyah, also in the south, as night fell Sunday protesters in the main square sung the national anthem amid celebratory fireworks. Thousands of Iraqis took to the streets nationwide on Sunday to mark the first anniversary of the 2019 revolt dubbed the "October Revolution", which demanded the ouster of the entire ruling class, accused of ineptitude and corruption. About 600 protesters were killed and 30,000 wounded in protest-related violence nationwide before demonstrations eased off and then ended with the coronavirus pandemic. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for six months, has urged security forces to show restraint when confronting protesters.

Kurdish Officials Say they Foiled Attack on Diplomats in Northern Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq said on Monday they had foiled a plan to attack foreign diplomats in their autonomous regional capital of Erbil, more than a year after the killing of a Turkish consular official there. In a statement, the Kurdistan regional government’s top security agency said the attack was planned by people linked to the PKK Kurdish separatist group that has waged a decades-long insurgency in neighboring Turkey. It said the attackers aimed to kill diplomats, but it did not say from which country. “The group was observed and then intercepted by the security forces in an operation lasting four months,” it added. The PKK faces one of Turkey’s fiercest military assaults for years against its bases in Iraqi territory. It is also the target of a security and reconstruction agreement between Erbil and Baghdad that aims to eject all PKK affiliates from the town of Sinjar on the Syrian border. A gunman shot a Turkish diplomat dead in an Erbil restaurant in July last year, just weeks after Turkey launched another incursion into Iraq against the PKK. Kurdish officials privately blamed that killing on the PKK, which they say seeks to carry out similar attacks in the Kurdistan region. The Kurdish government in Erbil, dominated by the Kurdish Democratic Party, sees the PKK as its adversary and relies on Turkish pipelines to export oil.

Turkey Angered by Egypt’s Criticism of its Intervention in Syria
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Turkey rejected on Sunday Egypt’s criticism against it over its intervention in Syria. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said Ankara rejects the accusations by Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, which he had made during the small group on Syria meeting on October 22. In a statement, Aksoy defended Turkey for “offering martyrs in the fight against terrorism in Syria.” Turkey, he continued, has taken in 4 million refugees and protected the people from an “oppressive regime and from terrorists in northern Syria.”It has made “tangible political contributions, whether in Astana and Geneva,” he added. Moreover, he said that Turkey’s role in Syria is not limited to defending its national security, but ensuring the preservation of Syria’s political unity and territorial integrity, vowing that it will continue to play this role. Egypt, he added, must not champion oppressive regimes, “parallel coupist entities and terrorist groups, but rather listen to the people and serve sustainable peace, security and stability in the region.” Shoukry had last week expressed his “deep concern” over the continued “destructive” intervention by some regional countries in Syria. An Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman said that Shoukry viewed that Turkey’s deployment in Syria was not only a threat to Syria itself, but the entire region. “We must not tolerate plans to stoke extremism and the phenomenon of transporting foreign terrorist fighters,” he remarked. He added that Egypt supports efforts to boost the work of the Syrian Constitutional Committee until it reaches its desired goals. “Egypt rejects any attempts to impose demographic change in Syria,” he stated.
 

Posters of Asma Assad Heavily on Display at Popular Event in Syria’s Hama
Damascus – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
In what has been described as a “precedent” throughout the decades-long rule of the Assad family over Syria, a large poster of first lady, Asma Assad, was raised at a popular event in the city of Hama. Hama, which the regime destroyed during the ongoing conflict in 2012, was holding the annual meeting of the al-Areen Charitable Foundation, attracting more than 20,000 people wounded in the war and families of victims of pro-regime forces. This was the first time that the poster of a woman who is affiliated with the regime is raised at an event. The size of the poster rivaled those of Bashar, her husband. Asma’s poster was seen covering the façade of one building overlooking the stadium where the gathering was held. A poster of Bashar and the national flag covered another building. Sources in Damascus said the move was a message from Asma to regime loyalists as she rallies support in her rivalry with Rami Makhlouf, Bashar’s cousin and business tycoon who has fallen from grace with the regime. The rivalry between Amsa and Makhlouf saw the first lady come on top and isolate him from the regime. Two weeks ago, Asma had toured coastal towns affected by forest fires in an attempt to gain favor with the people. Bashar was holding a similar tour in nearby regions in what was interpreted as an attempt by the ruling family to come close to the affected families who have criticized the regime’s inability to contain the fires. Makhlouf had announced a donation to help the affected families to which ngos, overseen by Asma, reacted by carrying out a donation campaign to the victims. The campaign was met with an “overwhelming” positive response and garnered some 2.5 million dollars in two weeks.

Yemen Makes ‘Concrete Progress’ in Forming New Govt.
Riyadh - Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
“Concrete progress” has been achieved in recent days over the formation of a new Yemen government after parties agreed on the distribution of shares, revealed Western and Yemeni sources on Sunday. “Yemeni political parties reached an agreement concerning the division of ministerial portfolios between the North and South,” the sources said. In recent days, Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi had stressed the need to expedite the process of implementing the Riyadh Agreement, which is required to unite Yemeni parties and to confront the Iran-backed Houthi militias.
Government spokesman Rajeh Badi told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Consultations are going in the right direction towards reaching understandings between the various participating parties.” The spokesman added that understandings are about to be reached between northern and southern Yemen on the distribution of ministerial portfolios based on the mechanism to accelerate the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. “All parties are keen on implementing the Agreement, and everyone is aware of the gravity of the economic and military situation in the country,” Badi said. Signed between the legitimate government and the Southern Transitional Council in August, the mechanism to accelerate the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement calls for forming a new 24-minister government. Portfolios will be distributed equally between North and South Yemen. Badi said, “Obstacles that some parties considered immense, were not that grave,” praising the support of Saudi Arabia to facilitate those talks. “Our Saudi brothers are keen on removing any obstacle hindering Yemeni stability and they support easing the suffering of the Yemeni people at the hands of the Houthis,” he said.
Yemeni media had in recent hours published leaks related to the distribution of shares in the new government. However, no official sources confirmed those reports. Meanwhile, British Ambassador to Yemen Michael Aron told Asharq Al-Awsat that all signs indicate that a breakthrough is about to be reached in the formation of a new cabinet. He said that “good news” may be on the way.
 

Egypt’s National Authority Denies Receiving Any Complaints Affecting Elections
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Egypt’s National Elections Authority (NEA) denied receiving any complaints that would affect the electoral process, as the polls closed on the last day of the first phase of parliamentary elections. Egyptians voted in 14 governorates amid strict health and security measures. Head of NEA Lashin Ibrahim announced that authorities implemented strict precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus at polling stations. He said the authority did not receive any complaints that would affect the elections as a whole, stating that the operating room continues to receive inquiries and complaints from all parties and is responding to them promptly. Meanwhile, head of the Arab League mission tasked with observing the elections, Ahmed Rachid Khattabi, stressed that the process took place smoothly given the legal, organizational and procedural measures taken by the Authority. He stated that the extensive security, logistic and precautionary measures had a positive impact on the overall electoral performance, allowing voters to cast their votes and carry out their national duty in a safe environment. The Arab League issued a statement on Sunday praising the good organization of the polls, which reflects a confident political will to consolidate the foundations of the state of institutions and citizenship, the pillars of the rule of law, and rules of free choice. Khattabi highlighted the 2019 constitutional amendments that allocated no less than 25 percent of parliamentary seats to female candidates.
This is a strong and clear indication of the state's desire to develop the political and electoral arena, which paves the way for a real female representation in the parliament, he added. The second stage of the vote is scheduled on Nov. 7-8 in the country’s 13 other provinces, including Cairo and the Sinai Peninsula. The voting concludes with runoff elections. A total of 568 seats in the lower chamber are up for grabs, with more than 4,000 candidates running as individuals competing for half of the seats. The other half of elected seats in the chamber are reserved for the more than 1,100 candidates running on four party lists.
The country's president will name 28 seats, or 5%, bringing the total number of seats in the lower chamber to 596.

Three-Way Talks on Blue Nile Dam to Resume Tuesday -AU Chairman
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 26 October, 2020
Negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over a multi-billion dollar dam on the Blue Nile will resume on Tuesday, African Union chairman Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday. A bitter dispute between the three countries over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remains unresolved even after the reservoir behind the dam began filling in July. "The resumption of the trilateral negotiations on the GERD ... is a reaffirmation of the confidence that the parties have in an African-led negotiations process," Ramaphosa, who is South Africa's president, said in a statement. The resumption of talks comes two days after Ethiopia summoned the US ambassador over what it called an "incitement of war" between Ethiopia and Egypt by US President Donald Trump over the dam dispute. Trump had called on Friday for an agreement between the countries, but said it was a dangerous situation and that Cairo could end up "blowing up that dam". Egypt, which gets more than 90% of its scarce freshwater supply from the Nile and fears the dam could devastate its economy, left the negotiations in August after Ethiopia proposed a new timeline for filling the GERD. Trump also said Ethiopia had broken a US-brokered agreement to resolve the dispute, forcing him to cut funds. The United States cut $100 million in aid to Ethiopia in September due to its position on GERD. Ethiopian lawmakers said on Monday that "no force on earth" would stop the completion of the dam and that they were ready to defend it from internal as well as external attacks. "We will defend any possible internal and external attacks and conspiracies and we shall complete the dam," the lawmakers from the lower House said in a statement.

US approves $2.37 billion more in potential arms sales to Taiwan: Pentagon
Reuters/Tuesday 27 October 2020
The US State Department has approved the potential sale of 100 Boeing-made Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems to Taiwan in a deal that has a potential value of up to $2.37 billion, the Pentagon said on Monday. The move comes days after the State Department approved the potential sale of three other weapons systems to Taiwan, including sensors, missiles and artillery that could have a total value of $1.8 billion which prompted a sanctions threat from China. Earlier on Monday in Beijing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told reporters China will impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defense, Raytheon and other US companies it says are involved in Washington's arms sales to Taiwan. The US moves come as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on China in the runup to the Nov. 3 presidential election and concerns rise about Beijing's intentions toward Taiwan. Beijing sees Taiwan as a renegade province that it has vowed to reunite with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Suspected Kurdish suicide bombing in southern Turkey: Report
AFP/Monday 26 October 2020
A suspected Kurdish militant blew themselves up Monday in a suspected suicide bomb attack in southern Turkey, security sources said. An explosion occurred in the town of Iskenderun in the southern province of Hatay on Monday evening, which the local governor blamed on one of two "terrorists". "Our security forces at a control point in the town of Payas were suspicious of two terrorists and one was neutralized after they were followed to Iskenderun (town) and during this, there was an explosion," Hatay governor Rahmi Dogan said. No one else was killed, but a security operation was ongoing, he said in a tweet. A Turkish security source said the two individuals were from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and an army sergeant had been injured in the attack, without providing further details. The source said that the two individuals tried to escape, but realizing they would be caught, one exploded a bomb on their body, while the second ran away. The PKK, which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, is blacklisted as a terrorist group by Ankara, the United States and the European Union.

78 Dead, Over 90 Hurt in Russian Raid on Pro-Turkey Syria Rebels
Agence France Presse/Monday 26 October 2020
Air strikes by Damascus regime ally Russia killed 78 Turkey-backed rebels in northwestern Syria on Monday, a monitor said, in the bloodiest surge in violence since a truce almost eight months ago. More than 90 others were wounded when Russian warplanes targeted a training camp of the Faylaq al-Sham faction in the Jabal Duwayli area in Idlib province, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. In early March, a truce brokered between Moscow and Ankara stemmed a deadly months-long Russia-backed regime military offensive on the country's last major rebel stronghold in Idlib. That onslaught from December had displaced almost a million people from their homes in one of the worst humanitarian crises of the nine-year civil war. Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman described Monday's strikes as the "deadliest since the ceasefire came into force." The National Liberation Front, an umbrella group of Ankara-backed rebels based in Idlib that includes Faylaq al-Sham, told AFP that Monday's Russian strikes hit one of its positions and caused casualties. It did not give an exact death toll. NLF spokesman Sayf Raad denounced the "Russian aircraft and regime forces continuously violating the Turkish-Russian deal in targeting military positions, villages and towns." Of the almost one million people displaced in the last Idlib offensive, more than 200,000 have returned home to their towns and villages, most since the ceasefire went into force. The March truce has largely held, despite some intermittent bombardment in the area from both sides. Russian air strikes have from time to time targeted military positions, including those of Turkey-backed groups, Abdel Rahman said.
- U.N. envoy visit -
The U.S. army on Thursday said it carried a drone strike against al-Qaida leaders in northwestern Syria, with the Observatory reporting 17 jihadists killed at a dinner gathering. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Syria's former al-Qaida affiliate, and allied rebels dominate the region of some three million people, around half living in camps after being displaced by fighting in other parts of the country. Last week, Turkey withdrew from one of its largest outposts in northwestern Syria which had been encircled for the past year by Syrian regime forces. The outpost in Morek had been Turkey's largest in Hama province, most of which is now under Syrian government control. After a string of military victories backed by Russia, the Syrian government has regained control of around 70 percent of the country, the Observatory says. Syria's war, which broke out after the brutal suppression of anti-government protests in 2011, has killed more than 380,000 people and displaced millions inside the country and abroad. Endless rounds of U.N.-backed peace talks have failed to stem the bloodshed and in recent years have been largely overtaken by a parallel negotiations track led by Russia and Turkey. On Sunday, U.N. envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen visited Damascus and met Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem. Pedersen afterwards said the meeting "touched upon all issues related to Security Council resolution 2254" for a political solution to the conflict. "It's my hope that meetings we have had today and meetings we will continue to have could be the beginning of something new," he said. The U.N. envoy said he would then hold talks with members of the political opposition. "Hopefully we can see if it's possible to find more common ground on how to move this process forward," he added.

Head of Muslim League on Prophet cartoon: We are not against freedoms, only hatred
Tuqa Khalid, Video edited by Omar Elkatouri, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 27 October 2020
Muslims do not stand against constitutional freedoms of individuals, only attempts to distort those freedoms and using them to spread hatred, Secretary-General of the Muslim World League Mohammed al-Issa told Al Arabiya on Monday. “We are not against legitimate freedoms, but we are against employing those freedoms for material gain, undermining their value. We are also against the consequential spread of hatred and racism,” he said. Al-Issa’s statement comes amid controversy over the use of cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad in a French school class on freedom of expression whose teacher was then murdered by someone French President Emmanuel Macron labeled an “Islamist.” Macron defended the publication of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. This came after a French teacher was beheaded last week near Paris after he had shown cartoons of the Prophet during a class about free speech. Macron had said the slain teacher was a “victim of an Islamist terrorist attack.”The French president also said: “We will not give up cartoons,” in a ceremony to honor the teacher last week. He added: “He was killed because Islamists want our future,” while vowing “they will never have it.” The incident has ignited debate about respecting religions and spurred many leaders in the Islamic world to condemn the crime but stress the importance of respecting prophets. Al-Issa condemned in the strongest terms the cartoons and said they were offensive to Muslim. However, he stressed that the stature of the Prophet was much too great to be slighted by mere cartoons. He encouraged Muslims to avoid “any negative overreaction,” and act only based on the teachings of the Islamic faith. “Inconsequential newspaper with barely any sales or subscriptions, unimportant and obscure illustrators gained international fame effortlessly and free of charge. This is due to the negative reactions which helped them become famous,” he said. Al-Issa added: “The European Court of Human Rights ruled that insulting our Prophet Muhammad, may God bless him and grant him peace, does not fall within the scope of freedom of expression.”
“In short, the principle of freedoms cannot be an excuse to spread hatred.”- With Agencies

Turkey Calls for Boycott of French Goods amid Macron Row
Agence France Presse/Monday 26 October 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday joined calls for a boycott of French goods, ramping up a standoff between France and Muslim countries over Islam and freedom of speech. Erdogan has led the charge against President Emmanuel Macron over his robust defense of the right to mock religion following the murder of a French schoolteacher who had shown his class cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. On Monday, the Turkish leader added his voice to calls in the Arab world for citizens to spurn French goods. "Never give credit to French-labelled goods, don't buy them," Erdogan, who caused a furor at the weekend by declaring that Macron needed "mental checks," said during a televised speech in Ankara. After Turkey was accused by France of remaining silent over Paty's killing on October 16, Erdogan's spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, on Monday denounced the "monstrous murder", adding "nothing" could justify the attack. French goods have already been pulled from supermarket shelves in Qatar and Kuwait, among other Gulf states, whereas in Syria people have burned pictures of Macron and French flags have been torched in the Libyan capital Tripoli.
European support -
The October 16 beheading of high-school teacher Samuel Paty by a Chechen extremist caused deep shock in France. Paty had shown his pupils some of the Mohammed cartoons over which 12 people were massacred at the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2015. Depictions of the Prophet Mohammed are seen as offensive by many Muslims, but in France such cartoons have become identified with a proud secular tradition dating back to the Revolution. In the aftermath of Paty's murder, Macron issued a passionate defense of free speech and France's secular values, vowing that the country "will not give up cartoons."As the backlash over France's reaction widened, European leaders rallied behind Macron. "They are defamatory comments that are completely unacceptable, particularly against the backdrop of the horrific murder of the French teacher Samuel Paty by an Islamist fanatic," German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert said. The prime ministers of Italy, the Netherlands and Greece also expressed support for France, as did European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. "President Erdogan's words addressing President @EmmanuelMacron are unacceptable," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte tweeted, adding that the Netherlands stood "for the freedom of speech and against extremism and radicalism."Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tweeted "personal insults don't help the positive agenda the EU wants to have with Turkey but pushes solutions further away."
Muslims treated 'like Jews' -
Erdogan on Monday compared the treatment of Muslims in Europe to that of Jews before World War II, saying they were the object of a "lynching campaign." "You are in a real sense fascists, you are in a real sense the links in the chain of Nazism," he said. "European leaders should tell the French president to stop his hate campaign" against Muslims, Erdogan added. France has been targeted in a string of jihadist attacks that have killed over 250 people since 2015 and led to deep soul-searching over the impact of Islam on the country's core values. Some of the attackers have cited the Mohammed cartoons as well as France's ban on wearing the Islamic face veil in public among their motives. Several suspected Islamist radicals have been arrested in dozens of raids since Paty's murder, and about 50 organizations with alleged links to such individuals have been earmarked for closure by the government. Earlier this month, Macron unveiled a plan to defend France's secular values against a trend of "Islamist separatism," and described Islam as a religion "in crisis."His stance has fuelled tensions with Turkey particularly. On Saturday, Paris announced it was recalling its envoy to Ankara after Erdogan, who has styled himself a defender of Muslims worldwide, questioned Macron's sanity. But Macron on Sunday was defiant on Twitter. "We will not give in, ever. We respect all differences in a spirit of peace. We do not accept hate speech and defend reasonable debate. We will always be on the side of human dignity and universal values," he said.
'Resist the blackmail'
Macron has also drawn fire in other Muslim-majority countries.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan accused Macron of "attacking Islam," while the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, the Taliban, the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and Morocco have also spoken out against France. A few dozen anti-Macron protesters rallied for the second day in a row in the Gaza Strip, stamping a photo of the French president with a red cross covering his face on the French cultural center's facade. More protests are planned on Tuesday in Amman. France's largest employers' federation on Monday urged companies to "resist the blackmail" over the boycott calls. "There is a time to put principles above business," Medef chief Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux told broadcaster RMC. "It is a question of sticking to our republican values."

Iraqis Protest Macron Comments outside French Embassy
Agence France Presse/Monday 26 October 2020
Dozens protested Monday outside the French embassy in Baghdad after a pro-Iran faction called on Iraqis to slam French President Emmanuel Macron's defense of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. A cleric at the rally, Aqil al-Kadhemi, demanded an "apology to all Muslims because the Prophet is a symbol of Islam and Muslims" and visual depictions of him are strictly forbidden in Islam. "We are demonstrating to denounce and strongly disapprove" of Macron's comments, Kadhemi told AFP at the protest that was heavily guarded by police. "We're surprised that a country such as France, supposedly the bastion of culture and respect for others, continually disrespects more than 1.5 billion Muslims." Macron has drawn anger in parts of the Muslim world with his robust defense of the right to mock religion following the murder of a French schoolteacher who had shown his class cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. Rabaa Allah, a pro-Iran faction formed in recent months which urged Iraqis to show up at the embassy, said "we are ready anywhere and anytime to answer back to those who tarnish our beliefs." Earlier this month, supporters of Hashed al-Shaabi -- an Iraqi paramilitary network dominated by Iran-backed factions -- burned down the main Kurdish party's headquarters in Baghdad after criticism from a Kurdish ex-minister. Some of the men in the small demonstration Monday burned a French flag and posters of Macron. Several families and children held up placards with red crosses plastered on Macron's face and others of him bearing a pig's face. "We denounce Macron who had the audacity to dishonor our blessed Prophet," said Aliaa al-Khafaji, a 40-year-old woman. Other protesters called for a boycott of French products, like those already underway in supermarkets in Qatar and Kuwait and demanded by some in Jordan and Turkey. Several dozen protesters also rallied in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza for a second day in a row. A banner outside the French cultural institute there was torn down and replaced by images of Macron's crossed-out face and a poster stating "Our Prophet will be victorious".
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27/2020

Iran's Mullah, the Master of Terror Cells in the World
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 26/2020
Iranian terrorist "sleeper cells" are reportedly continuing to operate in the US, according to intelligence officials and security experts. The Iranian regime is also continuing to target Latin American countries, where it dispatches its agents (specifically from Hezbollah), creates terror cells, and trains militias.
By turning a blind eye to the Iranian regime's terror activities in foreign countries and by refusing to open investigations or even condemn the mullahs, the United Nations is complicit in Iran's malign behavior across the globe. Perhaps it is time for the US to "pay for what it wants" from the UN, rather than automatically handing it billions, more than a fifth if its budget, every year -- and to make sure America gets what it pays for?
The Iranian regime has been setting up terror cells in Africa to attack Western targets. In June 2019, the Daily Telegraph reported that a "new terror network has been established on the orders of Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the elite section of Iran's Republican Guard Corps that has responsibility for overseas operations." Six months later, Qassem Soleimani was killed under a direct order from US President Donald J. Trump. Pictured: A charred and pockmarked wall in Baghdad, Iraq marks the site where Soleimani was killed in a drone strike. (Photo by Ali Choukeir/AFP via Getty Images)
Some of the main objectives of the Iranian regime's terror cells and proxies are to create fear in other nations through terrorism, subvert foreign governments and ultimately impose on the world an Islamist and Sharia system that mirrors that of Tehran. As Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah previously acknowledged:
"Our goal, which we have no choice but to adopt due to our ideological beliefs, is the project of the Islamic State of Lebanon... Not as a separate Islamic Republic but as a part of a 'Great Islamic Republic,' ruled by (former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah) Khomeini."
Lately, several of Iran's terror cells have been caught in foreign nations. On September 29, 2020, Saudi Arabia broke up an Iranian-trained cell, arrested 10 people and seized weapons and explosives. These included "electrical components used in the making of explosives such as capacitors, transformers and resistors, gunpowder, chemicals, Kalashnikov rifles, guns, sniper rifle, live ammunition, machine guns, blades, military clothes, and wireless communication devices."
The terrorist cell exposed in September, according to a statement issued by Saudi Arabia's Presidency of State Security, was trained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and had received "military and field training, including on how to make explosives."
Meanwhile, Bahrain's Ministry of the Interior revealed last month that early this year it had foiled a terrorist attack by a group also backed by the IRGC. The group, called the "Qassem Soleimani Brigade," had apparently been planning to attack several security and public structures in Bahrain.
In October 2019, Albanian General Police Director Ardi Veliu revealed in that the country's security institutions had detected an active cell of the foreign operations unit linked to the Iranian Quds Force. He warned:
"The Albanian authorities have identified these individuals and thanks to intelligence from informants inside the criminal organizations have prevented the plan (attack) of March 2018 and the eventual planning of attacks by organized crime members ... on behalf of Iran."
The Iranian regime has also been setting up terror cells in Africa to attack Western targets. In June 2019, the Daily Telegraph reported that a "new terror network has been established on the orders of Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the elite section of Iran's Republican Guard Corps that has responsibility for overseas operations." Six months later, Qassem Soleimani was killed under a direct order from US President Donald J. Trump.
Iran's terror cells also, it seems, aim to subvert other governments by carrying out assassinations. It was revealed last month, for instance, that Iran was weighing an assassination attempt against the US ambassador to South Africa, Lana Marks -- and that it was a terror plot in which the Iranian embassy in Pretoria was involved.
Iran has previously been accused, as well, of failed plans to bomb Saudi and Israeli embassies and, in 2011, to assassinate Adel Al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the US at the time. An investigation revealed, in addition, that it was Iran that ordered the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and was also implicated in the 9/11 attacks. In 2018, US Judge George Daniels issued an order stating that Iran was liable, as its support for Al-Qaeda had allowed the terrorist attacks to take place.
In 2018, the Iranian regime tried to orchestrate a terrorist operation in Europe: French officials foiled a planned bomb attack in Paris against a large "Free Iran" convention held by people opposing the regime, and attended by many high-level speakers, including former US House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird, as well as your humble correspondent.
Iran's terror cells and proxies, which have total loyalty to Iran, most likely receive direct orders and instructions from the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei also gave approval for last year's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil installations at Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which previously disclosed Iran's clandestine nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak. NCRI stated:
"After Khamenei's initial approval of this operation detailed planning began and the SNSC (Iran's Supreme National Security Council) referred the plan to Khamenei for final approval. Khamenei ordered IRGC Maj. Gen. (Gholam) Rashid and Brig. Gen. (Amir-Ali) Hajizadeh to begin the operational implementation of the plan."
Iranian terrorist "sleeper cells" are reportedly continuing to operate in the US, according to intelligence officials and security experts. The Iranian regime is also continuing to target Latin American countries, where it dispatches its agents (specifically from Hezbollah), creates terror cells, and trains militias.
By turning a blind eye to the Iranian regime's terror activities in foreign countries and by refusing to open investigations or even condemn the mullahs, the United Nations is complicit in Iran's malign behavior across the globe. Perhaps it is time for the US to "pay for what it wants" from the UN, rather than automatically handing it billions, more than a fifth if its budget, every year -- and to make sure America gets what it pays for?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Does Barr Let Wray Lie and Flout the Law?
Chris Farrell/Gatestone Institute/October 26/2020
The Wray FBI is acting in a disgracefully dishonest manner, and the attorneys of the Barr Justice Department are the advocates peddling this nonsense in federal courts. Here is what your government says it can do: Delete and keep secret all text messages – including those by the dirty cops running an illicit coup against President Trump.... AG Barr accepts it all and takes no action.
Ask yourself why AG Barr fights Judicial Watch in virtually every FOIA lawsuit seeking records over the Obamagate coup plot. Why does he permit the FBI to claim in court that their agents' text messages on their government phones are not government records? That's insultingly preposterous – but it is the Justice Department's position. Your tax dollars in action.
The past Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Rick Grenell, seemed to make some headway. Now DNI John Ratcliffe has moved the ball down the field a few more yards. Should President Trump be re-elected, the time will have come to break some china and flip over some tables at the FBI and Justice. Hopefully, President Trump will then show people what a "disruptor" truly looks like.
One is supposed to believe that Attorney General William Barr is in charge of the Department of Justice, and that FBI Director Christopher Wray works for Barr. Both men purportedly work for President Donald J. Trump. President Trump has been very clear about his desire and directives to declassify and release all materials related to the "Russia!" hoax. The President is consistently ignored by his staff.
Judicial Watch submitted a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on February 16, 2018, to the FBI. It sought text messages sent from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, between FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and FBI attorney Lisa Page, FBI Special Agent Jennifer Leonard, FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok, and/or Obama administration Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco. In response, the FBI denied the request, asserting (incredibly) that text messages are not subject to FOIA.
Judicial Watch challenged the FBI's determination. It filed an administrative appeal with the Department of Justice arguing that "text messages involving government-related business sent between government officials, whom all of the persons identified in the scope of the request are, do in fact constitute government records that fall within the purview of FOIA." [Emphasis added]
In response, the Justice Department's Office of Information Policy remanded Judicial Watch's request for "further review," but the FBI ignored the directive and continues to withhold any text messages. Judicial Watch sued on October 19, 2020, just a few days ago, after the FBI failed to respond (again) to the remanded request.
The Wray FBI is acting in a disgracefully dishonest manner, and the attorneys of the Barr Justice Department are the advocates peddling this nonsense in federal courts. Here is what your government says it can do: Delete and keep secret all text messages – including those by the dirty cops running an illicit coup against President Trump.
Keep in mind that this sort of arrogant, uncorrected (and largely ignored) corruption goes on in Washington DC all the time. AG Barr accepts it all and takes no action.
Last month, Judicial Watch uncovered that senior members of Robert Mueller's Special Counsel's Office (SCO) repeatedly and "accidentally" wiped over 20 phones assigned to them. All just a coincidence, right?
The President has the authority to appoint his own Special Counsel (28 C.F.R. Part 600). He is not required to wait for AG Barr to act. Given AG Barr's affinity for nonsense like Mueller's wiped phones and denying that government text messages on government phones, sent by government agents, on government time about government business are somehow not government records – one is left to believe the President has waited far too long for AG Barr to actually "do" something (beyond Durham's indictment one third-stringer flunky DoJ attorney [Clinesmith].
Ask yourself why AG Barr fights Judicial Watch in virtually every FOIA lawsuit seeking records over the Obamagate coup plot. Why does he permit the FBI to claim in court that their agents' text messages on their government phones are not government records? That's insultingly preposterous – but it is the Justice Department's position. Your tax dollars in action.
At this point, one must believe that someone in the Trump White House has caught onto this pattern of conduct at the FBI and the Justice Department. The President is not well-served if this goes on and on and on – at this point for years – and no real action is taken. The past Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Rick Grenell, seemed to make some headway. Now DNI John Ratcliffe has moved the ball down the field a few more yards. Should President Trump be re-elected, the time will have come to break some china and flip over some tables at the FBI and Justice. Hopefully, President Trump will then show people what a "disruptor" truly looks like.
*Chris Farrell is a former counterintelligence case officer. For the past 20 years, he has served as the Director of Investigations & Research for Judicial Watch. The views expressed are the author's alone, and not necessarily those of Judicial Watch.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Captain of the Mighty Power
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 26/2020
America is an enormous power. When it engages in the world’s diaries, its heavy weight saddles countries. Those complain about the difficulty to understand US policies and Washington’s excessive review of its accounts and strategies with every change in the name of the White House master, his political affiliation, and his personal convictions.
The world, complaining about the American interference in maps, quickly grumbles when the US turns its back and decides to abandon a file or a cause.
This is America. A lifesaver here and a burden there. It represents trouble when it is very involved, and a problem when it is absent. This tango of constant engagement and isolation shows that America needs the world and the world needs it.
We were young and the screens were a means of communication with the world. Movies arose the viewers’ passion and promoted images and ideas. World War I broke out and the United States was outside it. Its army was humble and its war machine had no daggers. The German Empire did not realize the consequences of harassment in these wealthy countries. German submarines intensified the attacks. America had no interest in seeing Europe succumbing to the Germans.
In April 1917, America engaged in the war against Germany. The movies didn’t lie. Later, books confirmed that the US changed the course of the war and turned in record time into an immense power with the last say in world affairs.
It was not the only time a teenager has concluded that America is a mighty power. The same screens told the story of the fatal sin committed by the Japanese aircraft when, on December 7, 1941, they dealt a resounding blow to the units of the American fleet in the Pacific Ocean.
This is when we will see the US, wounded by the Pearl Harbor attack, join the war, save Europe from the Nazi monster, and change the fate of the world.
Despite the differences in stages, the scene would repeat after decades, when America, wounded by the attacks of September 11, 2001, launched a global campaign against terrorism that also led to the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq.
Pictures of American power invaded screens and books. Pictures of Kennedy imposing a blockade on Cuba to force the Soviets to withdraw their missiles from Castro Island. Pictures of the US military enlisted in the Korean War facing the flood of Chinese volunteers. And pictures of the US soldiers leaving Saigon in a hurry, acknowledging the victory of Vietnam and its allies.
The enormous American power. The world would complain if Washington decided to exercise the role of a policeman to draw the features of the world according to its perceptions and interests. The world complains once again when America decides to move away from the first round and not bear its costs.
Small countries secretly admit that Security Council resolutions are not taken seriously unless they allow the use of force and brandish the American stick. This does not mean that America is always right. But it has the capacity to assume critical roles due to the multiple elements of its strength. The first economy in the world. The top-one military arsenal. Outstanding universities, creative laboratories, and an open revolution in technology. Unusual vitality in review, development, correction, and revision.
In the world of two camps, the countries under the Soviet umbrella could ignore what was happening in America. An issue of this magnitude was originally Moscow’s responsibility. Strategically located countries could afford to move into the bosom of the Kremlin. But the Soviet Union never succeeded in transforming into a huge power that is equivalent or close to the American capacity, despite its wealth. The allure of that colossal power, its pressures, and the growing technological divide threw the Soviet Union into history and heralded the birth of the only superpower.
The scene of the lonely superpower did not last long. The role of the world’s policeman is extremely complex and high-priced. Empires are toppled by the bleeding of their soldiers or their treasury. Leading without partners entails undertaking terrible burdens throughout the global village.
The American voter does not want to pay for this movie-like role. He does not want to waste blood on the land of Iraq, nor to squander trillions of dollars in the illusion of cultivating democracy in the world. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin restored Russia’s military and diplomatic capabilities and consolidated the features of a system that offers both stability and continuity on democratic principles.
But the big change came from China, which earned the title of “the world’s factory”, prompting analysts to seriously warn of the approaching “Chinese era”.
Before the spread of the “Chinese virus”, Chinese concerns prevailed over other files in the offices of American institutions. China is another world. A different model. The guardian of its drive-in globalization is a colossal capacity called the Chinese Communist Party, which adheres to the principle of the only narrative and the only official truth. That is why the impression prevailed that America would be distracted from the world due to its Chinese concerns.
Donald Trump’s tweets raised questions about America’s ability to draw the features of the world; about insisting on leading but refusing to pay the price; and about engagement and the desire for relaxation and isolation.
Trump’s decisions to withdraw from treaties, multilateral agreements, and international institutions have raised questions about the size of transformation in American policy and the extent of subsequent change in the world.
That’s why, while waiting for the Coronavirus vaccine, the world’s attention is turning to the US elections in a few days. It wants to know the name of the captain, who will manage this tremendous capacity that is called America and its relations with China, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, and “imperial dreams.” The capacity that brought down the Berlin Wall three decades ago and which threatens to bring down the Middle East wall through accelerated peace agreements.
Through the normalization agreements between the Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan on one side, and Israel on the other, the people of the region are aware that the identity of the master of the White House concerns them. Joe Biden is something and Donald Trump is something else; although the fact that the last say returns to a captain named American interests.

Yes, COVID-19 Is More Serious for the Elderly. So What?
Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
Advocates of “herd immunity” strategies often claim that Covid-19 is relatively safe for the young and that most of the victims are old. This observation is correct, but the question is what to make of it. Often the implication — stated or not — is that the response to the pandemic need not be so vigorous because the loss of life, as measured in years, is less than it appears. It is an uncomfortable but necessary discussion, they say. So be it — but once the conversation turns to which deaths matter the most, other questions about Covid-19 start to arise, almost all of which push in the direction of a very vigorous response. When either foreign enemies or pathogens attack US lives on a noticeable scale, the pushback needs to be very hard indeed.
Consider 9/11, when some 3,000 Americans died. The US mounted a very activist response that included new security procedures at airports, crackdowns on money laundering, increased surveillance, and two wars. Not all of those choices were prudent, but nonetheless they qualify as a very vigorous response. The point is this: Had 3 Americans been killed rather than 3,000 — if, say, 9/11 was a US holiday the hijackers didn’t know about, so fewer people were working — the optimal response would not have been all that different. There were a lot of casualties, but it is also significant that several airplanes were brazenly hijacked and flown into major iconic buildings, the Pentagon was hit, and Congress itself came under threat. Polities that do not respond to such attacks soon find themselves out of business. Not only do they invite further intimidations, but their citizens lose faith in the government’s ability to maintain public order or shape the future of the nation. The entire US system of government may well have been at stake in the decision to respond to 9/11 in a significant way.
By contrast, about 3,500 Americans die each year in fires. To repeat: That is each year. Yet Americans have not responded to deaths by fire as they did to 9/11, nor has a major public discussion ensued.
To be clear, the US probably should do more to limit the number of fire deaths. But they do not threaten the nation and constitutional order in the way that terrorist attacks do. How people die is crucial in helping a nation and society scale its response and frame the debate over what to do.
Covid-19 is obviously more like 9/11 than it is like the annual toll of fire deaths. It commands the headlines every day, has created a global economic depression, is reshaping global politics and the balance of power, causes extreme stress for millions, and has significantly harmed America’s global reputation. Yes, there have been some anxiety-driven overreactions, but it is inevitable that humans will respond dramatically to a major worldwide pandemic.
To be sure, the number of US victims is high — 220,000 and counting, plus some number of excess deaths from broader causes. But the event itself is so cataclysmic that “downgrading” those deaths by saying many of the victims were elderly doesn’t make a big difference in terms of formulating an optimal response.
Furthermore, it is likely that coronaviruses will return, which is all the more reason to excel in response now. To consider another example, during the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS-1, 774 people died worldwide, none of them in America. The countries that took that virus seriously — Korea, Taiwan, and Canada, to name a few — have performed much better during the current crisis. And many of the best biomedical responses, including vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, have evolved from very serious responses to previous pandemics.
One final (rather outlandish) thought experiment: Imagine that an enemy of the US demanded that 100 90-year-old Americans be handed over each year for execution. Of course America would refuse. The age of the victims would not be a factor in that decision.
Pandemics have been civilization-altering events since the beginning of human history, and they still are — especially if we do not respond properly. The need to get the response right, not the relative worth of the young to that of the old, is the main thing that we should be obsessing about.

The Shine Is Coming Off the Boom Stocks of 2020
Conor Sen/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
As investors think about which stocks to hold going into 2021, there may be no bigger red flag than a huge third-quarter earnings beat. That's because of what the pandemic has done to consumer behaviors and corporate earnings this year — impacts that may turn out to be more transitory than real-time-obsessed investors may anticipate.
We're already seeing the shine coming off the stocks of some of the early pandemic winners, an impact that may broaden as people turn their attention to next year's business prospects. Two companies where this "pandemic boom followed by bust" arc has played out are Netflix Inc. and Kimberly-Clark Corp. During the most intense phase of the pandemic in March and April, video streaming services and toilet paper were the ultimate shelter-at-home amenities.
That shift in consumer behavior flowed through into first-quarter results. Netflix subscriber growth soared above the rates it had seen during the same period in earlier years. Kimberly-Clark, maker of toilet paper brands like Cottonelle and Scott, similarly showed strong growth. In mid-April, as they were reporting earnings, both companies' stocks were up on the year while the S&P 500 Index had fallen more than 10%.
But with two more quarters of earnings reports behind us, we've seen that those gains were more like a one-time windfall. Netflix is still on pace for a strong year of subscriber growth, but it has added very few new customers since April. And Kimberly-Clark's revenues tied to supplying office buildings have slumped, while consumers are now well stocked, leading to the company’s disappointing guidance in its third-quarter earnings report.
Both companies' stocks fell about 5% after reporting their results last week, and their stocks are little changed since mid-April, despite the S&P 500 rallying around 20% since then.
This is the lens through which investors should examine strength in third-quarter earnings. To the extent companies are reporting better results than they ever have, how much of that represents being winners in some post-pandemic world versus a one-off windfall as consumers shifted their behavior over the past few months?
A great example of this phenomenon might be Whirlpool Corp., which reported earnings per share of $6.91, smashing consensus estimates of $4.20. An appliance maker reporting strong results isn't a surprise when it's been difficult to find items like refrigerators in stock for months. Yet after rallying strongly after hours on Wednesday afternoon, the stock closed down on Thursday, with investors perhaps wondering if this is as good as it gets for pandemic-related home-improvement purchases.
What we might be seeing in the third quarter is a peak, whether in actual sales or investor expectations, of pandemic-related goods purchases. Over many decades the purchase of goods like automobiles and home appliances has shrunk relative to services in the consumer spending basket, but as my colleague Tim Duy notes, that has reversed dramatically during the pandemic. Assuming the public-health crisis fades in 2021 through a combination of mass vaccinations and other medical advances, it's likely that consumers will shift their spending back to services to some degree, perhaps even overshooting in the opposite direction. If 2020 was the year that Americans bought a second refrigerator or did an extra home-improvement project, then 2021 might be the year Americans take that bucket-list trip to a national park or splurge on dining out after being unable to do so for months.
If so, that would be bad news for the fortunes of companies that made products like recreation vehicles, which have already seen their sales boom this year. Notably, the stocks of companies in that industry, such as Thor Industries Inc. and Camping World Holdings Inc., had sagged over the past few months even before a downturn in sales. It also means caution for pandemic-related e-commerce winners like Etsy Inc., Wayfair Inc., and Overstock.com Inc., because of the risks of consumption shifting back to services away from goods, and to stores away from shopping online.
Housing might be the wild card in all this, with the industry's many structural tailwinds related to demographics, low-interest rates, low supply, and growing production. That being said, despite robust economic data for the housing industry over the past few months, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF remains stuck around mid-August levels, suggesting that a lot of optimism is already built into prices. Even if it's now looking like it will be at least the middle of next year before society gets fully back to normal, forward-looking investors are trying to price that in ahead of time. So any blowout earnings reports we get over the next few weeks might signal the end of the good times rather than a trend to ride into 2021.

Zero Hour Is Coming for Emissions. Believe it
David Fickling/Bloomberg/October 26/2020
It’s only natural to be skeptical when a political leader stands up and makes a promise about a target that’s far off, hard to achieve, and lacks a clear pathway.
So one reaction to a report that Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, will pledge next week to reduce the country’s net carbon emissions to zero by 2050 might be: Really?
After all, public and private Japanese banks are still funding new coal-fired power stations in Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh, exploiting a loophole in Tokyo’s previous promise to reduce financing to such projects — a fact that’s causing some consternation among European investment funds.
For all the publicity garnered by South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s Green New Deal and pledge last month of a 2050 net zero target, Korean engineering companies, too, are working with Japanese funders on Vietnam’s Vung Ang 2 coal plant.
Chinese President Xi Jinping also garnered plenty of positive headlines last month for promising to bring the world’s largest emitter to net zero status by 2060 — but China still has 250 gigawatts of coal plants under development, more than the total existing fleets in India or the US.
Doubts are warranted when so many nations are falling far short of their own climate pledges. At the same time, it can be pushed too far. The promises of political leaders have real-world effects that we’re already seeing. On the path to getting the binding and comprehensive emissions policies that the world needs, there will be plenty of partial, vague and unenforceable pledges. Each of them, though, sets a new baseline that will help create the conditions for further, more ambitious policies.
Take the broadly accepted target that the world must stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide at or below 450 parts per million. Until relatively recently, this was generally considered the most radical reasonable option.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2001 synthesis of scientific research took 450ppm as the lower bound of a range of outcomes stretching up to 750ppm. The influential 2006 UK government review of the economics of climate change by Nicholas Stern advised aiming for 500ppm to 550ppm. That ambition was considered bold at the time but is now accepted as grossly inadequate. Similarly, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was rarely treated as a serious option until the 2015 Paris Agreement set a target “well below 2 degrees Celsius” at the behest of small island states that risk destruction from higher levels of warming.
What target skeptics miss is the feedback relationship between the stated goals of political leaders and the behavior of investors, engineers and lower-level officials whose work will help decarbonize the economy.
As should be obvious from the $3.5 billion a year spent on lobbying in the US alone, the decisions of political leaders shape the field of what’s possible for businesses. When a politician embraces a net-zero ambition — and especially when, as in the European Union, those words are enshrined into law — the risks associated with carbon-intensive projects go up, while those associated with low-carbon technologies go down. That's particularly the case when, as we’re seeing, the path starts to be followed by leaders in multiple countries. Lower-carbon approaches then become more viable. That shift in the technological frontier in turn makes it easier for politicians to set still bolder targets, because the political and economic costs of doing so have declined.
We’re seeing this sort of virtuous circle playing out. As we’ve written, the best guide to the path of power sector emissions in the 2010s wasn’t the International Energy Agency’s politics-as-usual scenario, but the one where radical action was taken to limit atmospheric carbon to 450ppm.
Just over a month ago, I greeted PetroChina Co.’s announcement of a 2050 “near-zero” emissions target by fretting that China may be more addicted to coal than oil. That’s still a reasonable concern, but Xi’s 2060 net zero promise two weeks after that column drastically changes the landscape. Within weeks of that speech, influential Chinese academic research institutes have already released a range of roadmaps that would illustrate how to put those words into action, with coal falling from nearly 70% of primary energy at present to 10% or less in 2050.
Any targets laid out by politicians will find themselves up against institutional inertia, unintended consequences and political pushback. That doesn’t make them worthless. Political rhetoric changes reality, and even a cursory examination of recent history shows you how quickly that can happen. Not one question was asked on the subject of climate during the 2016 US presidential debates. This year, it’s been one of the most-discussed topics.
Turning round an oil tanker takes time. That doesn't mean it’s impossible.

Biden rejoining the Iran deal is easier said than done
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Sunday 25 October 2020
At face value, the upcoming US election presents a choice between two Iran strategies. If President Donald Trump is reelected for a second term, he will maintain “maximum pressure” on Iran. In contrast, his Democratic challenger Joe Biden has hinted that he will suspend US sanctions and rejoin the nuclear deal. This, however, is only election talk. Reality will prove different.
If Trump wins reelection, Iran will be forced to return to the negotiating table, and resume from where it broke off in 2017. As Iran’s economy continues its bottomless free fall, Tehran cannot afford four more years of Trump’s pressure, and will certainly negotiate. Before the US reinstated its sanctions, it gave the European powers a chance to convince Tehran to make all sunset clauses in the nuclear deal permanent. The deal was designed with various restrictions on Iranian nuclear activity that expire in five, eight, 10, and 25 years from its date of adoption.
When all the clauses of the nuclear deal with Iran expire in 2040, Iran will have the freedom to enrich unlimited amounts of uranium to unspecified levels. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) protocol will therefore become the only guarantee that Iran will not make a nuclear bomb.
After talks with the Europeans, Iran, underestimated the power of US sanctions, and believed that if Europe, Russia and China stayed in the deal, Tehran would be able to circumvent US pressure. But Tehran was wrong. America’s sanctions were more powerful than even Washington expected, and so Iran moved to Plan B: Wait out Trump. Should Trump be reelected, Iran would most probably agree to making sunset clauses permanent, that is if Washington agrees to put its 2017 offer back on the table.
Iran’s Plan B is premised on the belief that once Biden becomes president, he will reverse Trump’s sanctions and simply rejoin the nuclear deal. But this will prove easier said than done.
By the time Biden becomes president in January 2021, there will remain two years until the world agrees to Iran replacing its first generation centrifuges with newer ones, per the deal. Biden will have to convince America that Iran can be trusted with centrifuges that can enrich uranium faster, and thus shorten the time required to make a bomb, should Tehran ever decide to do so. However, the past few years have proved that Iran cannot be trusted. Even the Europeans, with Russia and China, expressed dismay that Iran has been violating its commitments under the nuclear deal, as it accelerated its enrichment and increased its stock of higher grade uranium.
Iran has also shown that it considers its ratification of the NPT protocol as open to political bargaining. Should Iran decide to, it can just scrap its commitment to the NPT and make a bomb, the same way North Korea trashed the Additional Protocol over a decade ago.
When former president Barack Obama threw his weight behind the nuclear deal with Iran, he reasoned that Tehran is a rational player and has good intentions, and that only if the world can break the cycle of mistrust with Iran, all disagreements can be solved.
A novice in foreign affairs, Obama seemed unaware that Iran never seeks solutions, but always keeps issues unresolved because it ensures Tehran remains globally relevant and gives the regime the ability to extort and blackmail the world.
The past three years since Trump has reinstated US sanctions on Iran have shown the world, and most importantly Biden, how Iran perceives its nuclear program. Despite Tehran’s official rhetoric, the regime has never been interested in producing nuclear power, but instead seeks to acquire a nuclear bomb. For the regime, only a nuclear bomb will give it global immunity and ensure its survival for eternity.
Over the past few years, Trump has slammed Iran with dozens of sanctions not directly related to the Iranian nuclear program, but instead based on Iran’s support for terrorism and its destabilizing regional behavior. Even Obama left Iranian sponsor of terrorism outside the nuclear deal, and was hoping that the deal will restore Iran to global normalcy and make the mullahs abandon their destabilizing activities.
Before the deal and Trump’s eventual withdrawal, Obama’s hypothesis had not been tested. But five years later, Washington and the world now know that no amount of nuclear deals with Iran will result in making the mullahs behave like a normal peaceful state.
Unlike how Obama appealed to Congress to give the deal with Iran a chance, Biden will not be able to pretend that the deal had produced any positive results. For Biden to rejoin the deal, he will have to climb a steeper hill, and his promise to rejoin the deal might prove to be mere election talk.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is an Iraqi-Lebanese columnist and writer. He is the Washington bureau chief of Kuwaiti daily al-Rai and a former visiting fellow at Chatham House in London. He tweets @hahussain.
 

Dangerous road ahead as Iraq gripped by militia violence
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October 26/2020
This month marked the first anniversary of the popular demonstrations that last year swept Iraq, from Baghdad to Basra. Largely attended by young people, the protests had demanded sweeping political reform, particularly transparency and accountability in governance.
The demonstrators were targeted mercilessly by militias from the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU): 600 were killed and 26,000 were injured. Criticism from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in November 2019 brought down the government of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.
Now, after a lull due to the pandemic, the demonstrators are back in Baghdad, recommencing their protests on Oct. 1 with portraits of those killed last year. Now they have the backing of new Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who has promised to set up a memorial to those killed in the protests, along with museums, theaters and libraries celebrating national unity and the sacrifices made by the country’s youth.
The major issue facing Iraq relates to the activities of the various Shiite militias that are part of the PMU. The PMU has now splintered, with “moderate” elements backing the government and radical groups wreaking violence against a variety of targets: Shiite youths protesting against the parlous national conditions, Sunnis kidnapped for ransom or murder, Kurdish parties, and, above all, US diplomatic and military targets.
This threat to national recovery encouraged the normally taciturn Al-Sistani to intervene. Last month, he called on the Iraqi government to stop “certain groups from dividing Iraq” by claiming exclusive spheres of control for themselves — a clear attack on militant activity. He also demanded the confiscation of illegal weaponry, action against corruption, and the beefing up of the security services to provide justice to the violated.
Within days of this strident admonition from the nation’s highest religious authority, the US issued its own stern warning. President Barham Salih convened a meeting of Iraqi politicians to say that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had warned that, unless the attacks on US facilities ended, Washington would close its embassy in Baghdad and then target the militias concerned. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari called on Iraq’s politicians to confront the “challenges posed by armed militia” so that Iraq can “stop this carnage and act responsibly.”
Here, the split among the PMU has become apparent. The head of the PMU, Falih Al-Fayyadh, condemned all attacks and affirmed that the organization is a legal security force under the national armed forces. He was backed by Hadi Al-Amiri, head of the Fatah bloc, who criticized the recent attacks on US and British targets and demanded protection for all foreign missions. Four militias that were part of the PMU have broken away and asked to join the state forces. Across the border, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif praised Al-Sistani’s remarks, while the Foreign Ministry condemned the attack on a British convoy.
However, the radical militias remain unmoved. A spokesman for Asaib Ahl Al-Haq justified the attacks on the US Embassy, saying the building is “a military base of an occupying force.” By the end of September, there had been fresh attacks on a US facility at Baghdad airport, which erroneously hit a nearby home, on US troops in Irbil and on positions held by the Iranian Kurds, who are described by Tehran as terrorists.
Besides foreign targets, the wrath of the militants has also been directed at domestic enemies. On Oct. 17, members of the PMU burned the Baghdad headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in response to the call of Foreign Minister Zebari, who is a Kurd, that the capital’s official and diplomatic Green Zone be “cleansed from the militias and the PMU presence.”
Two days later, there were reports of 12 people from the Sunni-majority Salahuddin province being kidnapped and then killed, most probably by members of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq. This has created fears of a renewal of the sectarian violence that overwhelmed the country a decade ago. Members of parliament from the province have jointly demanded that all militants linked to the PMU and political groups be removed.
There are fears of a renewal of the sectarian violence that overwhelmed the country a decade ago.
This seems to be a tall order. Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi has shaken up the security services with new appointments, roping in a former interior minister as his national security adviser and a former defense minister as head of intelligence operations. He has also initiated a crackdown on illegal weapons in the Shiite-dominated southern provinces. However, despite his enthusiasm, progress has been slow, with reports that Al-Kadhimi lacks the clout to take on the militias and the arms traders.
A confrontation seems to be brewing between the new security officials around Al-Kadhimi and sections of the Shiite parliamentary blocs and the militias that back them, with the latter seeking to emasculate the prime minister or get him out of office.
Outside the country’s venal parliament, Al-Kadhimi enjoys considerable support and, in a reformed political order, he should obtain popular backing in elections scheduled for June next year. However, the journey to those elections will be along a tightrope over a dangerous swamp.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.