LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 26/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october26.19.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
All who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 18/09-14/:”Jesus also told this parable to some who trusted in themselves that they were righteous and regarded others with contempt: ‘Two men went up to the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax-collector. The Pharisee, standing by himself, was praying thus, “God, I thank you that I am not like other people: thieves, rogues, adulterers, or even like this tax-collector. I fast twice a week; I give a tenth of all my income.”But the tax-collector, standing far off, would not even look up to heaven, but was beating his breast and saying, “God, be merciful to me, a sinner!”I tell you, this man went down to his home justified rather than the other; for all who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 25-26/2019
Nasrallah Warns of Civil War, Asks Hizbullah to 'Leave Squares' and Protesters to Pick Representatives
Nasrallah says government is here to stay; prepare for the worst
Army Issues Clarification about Alleged Assault against Protester
Hariri Meets Aoun, Saniora Says PM Seeking 'Consensus on New Govt.'
Injuries, Arrests as Hizbullah Supporters Attack Riad al-Solh Protesters
Lebanon: Prosecutor Ghada Aoun Calls For Lifting Immunities Then Recovering Looted Money
Lebanon: Hezbollah Supporters Take to the Sit-In, Security Forces Keep Them Away
Protests Continue to Paralyze Lebanon, S&P Says Saver Confidence Tested
Lebanon's FPM Resentful, Studies Options
International Support Group Advises Lebanon’s Leaders to Create ‘Political Shock’
Hizbullah Supporters Clash with Protesters in al-Fakiha, Incident Reported in Masnourieh
Lebanon Protesters Reject Concessions, Block Key Roads
One person lightly injured after shooting near Riad al-Solh square in Beirut
Protesters Stay on Streets despite Riad al-Solh Clashes, Hizbullah-AMAL Dem
Lebanon's revolution: I am terrified of the morning after
Tensions Rattle Protests after Attacks by Hizbullah Supporters
Roukoz Calls for 'Total' Govt. Change
A Surge in Protests around the World in October
The Lebanese Military in the Middle
Jumblatt: Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy
Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current
Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon
People are not Lebanon’s 9th day of protests witness rise in violence
Tarek Aliahmad/ Arab News/October 25/ 2019fooled: The Lebanese
Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon
Lebanon’s crisis is caused by Iran

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 25-26/2019
At least 27 people killed as fresh protests engulf Iraq
Esper: US troops, armored vehicles going to Syria oil fields
Tehran Protests US Refusal to Grant Visa to Iranian Economy Minister
UN Expert Slams Iran’s Child Executions
Iran TV Airs Interview with Jailed Instagrammer
IRGC’s Salami: Iran today is stronger than its ‘enemies’
Iraq’s IHCHR Demands Government to Protect Demonstrators
Amnesty: Turkey Deporting Syrians to Planned ‘Safe Zone’
US to Turkey: Don’t turn on Russian system, avoid sanctions
Syrian government ‘fears’ constitutional committee: US

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 25-26/2019
Nasrallah says government is here to stay; prepare for the worst/Elias Sakr/Annahar/October 25/2019
Lebanon's revolution: I am terrified of the morning after/Ayah Bdier/Annahar/October 25, 2019
Tensions Rattle Protests after Attacks by Hizbullah Supporters
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/October 25/2019
A Surge in Protests around the World in October/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019
The Military in the Middle/Aram Nerguizian/Carnegie/October 25/2019
Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current/MEMRI/October 25/2019
Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon/Robert Fisk/Independent/October 25/2019
People are not fooled: The Lebanese government’s reforms are not the solution/Sami Atallah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2019
Lebanon’s 9th day of protests witness rise in violence/Tarek Aliahmad/ Arab News/October 25/ 2019
Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 25/2019
Lebanon’s crisis is caused by Iran/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 25/2019
Europe has become the sick man of the world/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 25, 2019
Boris Johnson Has His Campaign Slogan Ready/Therese Raphael/Bloomberg//October 25/2019
France: The Headscarf Debate is Not about Headscarves/Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2019
Impeachers Searching for New Crimes/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2019
Trump's Balfour Moment/Matthew Mainen/The Hill/October 25/2019
US-Kurdish alliance dies in game of Russian roulette/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 25, 2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 25-26/2019
Nasrallah Warns of Civil War, Asks Hizbullah to 'Leave Squares' and Protesters to Pick Representatives
Naharnet/October 25/2019
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned the Lebanese that the ongoing anti-government protests might descend into “chaos”, “collapse” and “civil war,” as he called on Hizbullah’s supporters to leave the protest squares.
“The protest movement is no longer spontaneous and it is being led by known parties and political forces and some sides are funding it,” Nasrallah cautioned in a televised address. “The situation in Lebanon has entered the phase of international exploitation with the help of domestic sides,” he warned. Expressing fear that Lebanon might be “dragged into political tensions and civil war,” Nasrallah said he fears for "the entire country, not the resistance." “Any solution must avoid a plunge into vacuum, because vacuum would be very dangerous,” Nasrallah said. “We do not accept the fall of the presidential tenure and we do not support the government's resignation, and amid these circumstances we do not accept to go to early parliamentary polls,” he added. Addressing protesters, Hizbullah’s leader suggested that protesters will not be able to agree on an electoral law and said: “If you want early parliamentary polls, elect your representatives and agree on an electoral law and we will back you unconditionally.”Nasrallah also acknowledged that the blocking of roads is a legitimate protest tactic but called for the reopening of roads blocked since October 17, accusing some protesters of "setting up checkpoints" and "asking for IDs."Calling on “the supporters of the resistance” to leave protest squares, Nasrallah added that he “respects” the protesters who choose to stay there. “Let the leaders of the protest movement show their real face and let them go to the judiciary to prove that they are not corrupt and let them lift their bank secrecy,” Nasrallah said, calling on them to “reassure the resistance.”“Some of the protest movement's leaders are patriotic and honest while some of the protest movement's leaders are known political parties,” he suggested. “It's about time this protest movement had leaders,” Nasrallah said, calling on the protest movement to dispatch representatives to meet with President Michel Aoun. Noting that the reform paper presented by Prime Minister Saad Hariri “is for implementation” and is not “mere promises,” Hizbullah’s leader added that his party “will not allow procrastination in its implementation.” “ The reform paper was ridiculed in a strange manner by some leaders of the protest movement and this raises suspicions. How can someone disavow their own achievements,” he lamented.

Nasrallah says government is here to stay; prepare for the worst
Elias Sakr/Annahar/October 25/2019
Power void or not, Lebanon's economic and financial crises will worsen as the country remains politically isolated. I share Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's worries that Lebanon might plunge into chaos in the wake of these ongoing demonstrations to topple the government. I even warned of such a scenario in recent op-eds And yes, I share his belief that his political opponents, maybe with the support of foreign powers, are working hard to topple the government, which his armed group and President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement dominate. And yes, I share his concerns that this revolution will accelerate Lebanon's economic and financial collapse. But that doesn't change the fact that this ruling class must listen to its people. And this ruling class includes Hezbollah, whose decision to align Lebanon with Iran, has led to US sanctions and our country's isolation from the GCC, thus contributing to our current economic and financial crises. Yes, our crises have roots in decades of post-war corruption by those that remain represented in today's Cabinet, which Nasrallah is defending under the pretext that a malfunctioning and corrupt government is better than plunging Lebanon into a power void.
That, I'm not so sure of. Power void or not, Lebanon's economic and financial crises will worsen as the country remains politically isolated. A power void only accelerates the inevitable, which will pave the way for a long due revamp of Lebanon's economic model; a revamp that will be painful but necessary.
More importantly, prosperity, accountability and sustainable development are impossible to achieve under a weak state where the rule of law doesn't prevail and the elected government doesn't dictate foreign and defense policies. As long as Hezbollah controls an armed group that owes allegiance to a foreign power, in this case Iran, Lebanon will remain a weak state plagued by corruption. If Nasrallah truly wants to spare Lebanon chaos, he ought to listen to the Lebanese. One way to do that is to support free early parliamentary elections. But it seems Nasrallah has made up his mind: this government is here to stay. So, prepare for the worst.

Army Issues Clarification about Alleged Assault against Protester
Naharnet/October 25/2019
The Army Command responded via its official Twitter account to video footage that circulated on social media on Friday about a military member allegedly attacking a woman. The statement said: A video circulated on social media showing a military member attacking a woman. To clarify, this act was a reaction to an assault against the military’s wife and his child when someone threw hot coffee at them in the Furn al-Shebbak area. The woman and her child were trying to cross the road on foot when protesters prevented them to pass through by car.

Hariri Meets Aoun, Saniora Says PM Seeking 'Consensus on New Govt.'
Naharnet/October 25/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday held talks at the Baabda Palace with President Michel Aoun, as unprecedented anti-government protests rocked the country for a ninth day. Hariri left the palace without making a statement.
Ex-PM Fouad Saniora meanwhile said Hariri “wants to reach consensus on the formation of a new government prior to the resignation of the incumbent government.”TV networks meanwhile quoted al-Mustaqbal Movement’s political bureau as saying that Hariri’s resignation would be “political suicide.”

Injuries, Arrests as Hizbullah Supporters Attack Riad al-Solh Protesters
Naharnet/October 25/2019
Several people were injured Friday as Hizbullah supporters launched fresh attacks on protesters at Beirut’s Riad al-Solh Square. Riot police immediately intervened and separated between the two groups, making several arrests. LBCI television reported violent scuffles between police and the pro-Hizbullah group. The Hizbullah supporters had chanted slogans against Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. Media reports said the supporters had arrived together in buses and were carrying batons. MTV meanwhile reported an assault on its crew in Riad al-Solh.

Lebanon: Prosecutor Ghada Aoun Calls For Lifting Immunities Then Recovering Looted Money
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Mount Lebanon Prosecutor, Judge Ghada Aoun, expressed her support for the Lebanese people’s right “to know the truth, and to see certain people being held accountable for their actions.”“I work within the scope of my powers and I have discretionary authority,” she told reporters in her office at the Baabda Justice Palace. Aoun emphasized that the people “must demand the lifting of immunities first in case we want to recover the looted funds.”The Mount Lebanon prosecutor brought charges against former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, as well as Bank Audi on Wednesday for “illicit enrichment.”The charges brought by Aoun were also against Mikati’s son Maher and his brother Taha and were based on claims that the defendants received subsidized housing loans. The case was referred to Beirut’s acting First Investigative Judge George Rizk. Bank Audi denied any involvement in any “illegitimate enrichment”. Mikati also refuted the charges, according to his communications adviser who claimed the case was politically motivated. Stressing “sympathy with the citizens”, Aoun said the charges against the former prime minister were not politically driven. “I did not choose a file randomly. I’ve been investigating this for about a year,” she said. “I support investigating any such case because it is the right of the people to know and hold their leaders accountable ... and cases related to judicial corruption, I’ve transferred them to the investigative judge,” she emphasized.

Lebanon: Hezbollah Supporters Take to the Sit-In, Security Forces Keep Them Away
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Internal security forces on Friday expelled a group of Hezbollah supporters, who infiltrated the sit-in in downtown Beirut, chanting in support of the party’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and against the head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea. Demonstrations continued in several Lebanese areas for the eighth consecutive day and protesters blocked major roads leading to the main cities. Security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the internal security forces made reinforcements in Riyadh al-Solh Square to keep Hezbollah supporters away from the sit-in, stressing its commitment to protect the protesters.
Many demonstrators considered the chants of Hezbollah’s supporters as provocative, as they appeared in black shirts, and others felt that the infiltration was a form of “intimidation.”The party’s supporters said they rejected accusations of corruption against Nasrallah, stressing that they suffered like the rest of the Lebanese population, but that their leader was not corrupt. As they recited slogans in support of Nasrallah, many protesters feared an escalation and withdrew to nearby sites. Security forces participated on Thursday in the protection of demonstrators, who poured into the center of Beirut after the speech of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, despite the rainy weather, to express their mistrust in the ruling authority. The British Embassy in Beirut called for listening to the demands of the Lebanese people who expressed their legitimate frustration. “A week after these protests started, the Lebanese people have expressed legitimate frustrations, which must be heard. This is an important moment for Lebanon: the necessary reforms should be implemented urgently,” the Embassy said on its Twitter account. “The UK will continue to support a secure, stable, sovereign and prosperous Lebanon, including a stronger and fairer economy, quality education for all, improved services, and enhanced security,” it added.

Protests Continue to Paralyze Lebanon, S&P Says Saver Confidence Tested
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Lebanese protesters remained on the streets for a ninth day on Friday and a global credit ratings agency said the government's limited capacity to address demonstrator demands could further test depositor confidence and weigh on foreign exchange reserves. The protests have cut roadways, closed schools and shut banks nationwide. Banks are set to remain closed until the situation stabilizes out of safety concerns, the banking association said on Thursday. Emergency reform measures and an offer of dialogue with protest representatives by the president have so far failed to defuse anger or move people from the street. The protests have been fueled by dire economic conditions and anger at the political elite accused of plundering state resources for personal gain, bringing turmoil to the streets of a nation already in deep economic crisis. As politicians ponder ways out, the clock is ticking because of financial strains in Lebanon. Exacerbating the economic situation, capital inflows vital to financing the state deficit and imports have been slowing down, generating financial pressures not seen in decades, including the emergence of a black market for dollars. In a report issued on Thursday, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's placed Lebanon's ratings on "creditwatch negative". It said this "reflects our view that declining foreign currency inflows could exacerbate fiscal and monetary pressures while limiting the government's response to pressing societal demands". While the central bank's usable foreign currency reserves were sufficient to service government debt in the near term, risks to government creditworthiness have risen, it said. There was "at least a one-in-two chance" S&P could lower the government's ratings following a review within the next three months into how the government responds to current pressures and its effectiveness in restoring depositor confidence. It also said that despite reasonably high levels of gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, of almost $50 billion the imposition of "soft capital controls raise questions about the monetary regime". "We understand that banks have imposed restrictions on US dollar withdrawals," S&P said. Deposit outflows totaled $2.1 billion for the first eight months of the year. The central bank's usable foreign exchange reserves are estimated to stand at $19 billion at the end of 2019, it said. The government this week announced reforms that include a one-time tax on bank profits and cuts to salaries of top officials, saying the measures would narrow the 2020 budget deficit to 0.6 percent. "In our view, recent widespread protests suggest that the government's dual aim of maintaining social stability and implementing reforms to reduce the general government deficit could be difficult to reconcile," the S&P report said.

Lebanon's FPM Resentful, Studies Options
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
A member of the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc expressed his strong dissatisfaction with the situation in the street, saying that the “compass has been lost.”He said that the protests were now mainly targeting the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), its leader and President Michel Aoun. The FPM deputy said he was surprised that he and his colleagues now have to stay home for fear of being attacked. Aoun supporters remained silent about the popular movement in its early days, until FPM President and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil appeared in Baabda Palace to talk about the “great collapse or the bold rescue”, warning of “chaos in the street and sedition”. On Thursday, a video circulated on the social media, showing Bassil in the central office of the Free Patriotic Movement, where some of his supporters gathered. He told them: “We are strong, do not be afraid and do not shake.”Dozens of supporters organized a sit-in in front of the Palace of Justice in Baabda, in conjunction with a speech addressed by President Michel Aoun on Thursday, during which they raised the Lebanese flags exclusively. Following a meeting chaired by Bassil, the FPM Political Council said in a statement that the cause carried by the demonstrators was that of the FPM, “which considers itself an integral part of this popular situation.”He cautioned that internal and external forces have “exploited the righteous anger of the people to strike stability, spread chaos and weaken the rule; this is what we will not accept.”“As far as we support the right popular demands, we will be tough in the face of saboteurs,” the statement emphasized. The council insisted on “issuing laws to lift immunity and bank secrecy and recover looted funds”, adding that the members have “confirmed their commitment to lift bank secrecy from their accounts.”

International Support Group Advises Lebanon’s Leaders to Create ‘Political Shock’
Beirut - Mohamed Choucair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
The International Support Group (ISG) for Lebanon informed officials in Beirut that the government should make a “political shock” along with the quick implementation of reforms approved by the cabinet in its last session, ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. During their meetings with Lebanese officials, ISG representatives avoided discussing details of the shock that they hope would produce a change to meet the demands of protesters. “However, the Group noted that Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat do not object a cabinet reshuffle on condition that it receives the approval of President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah,” the sources said. On the eight day of demonstrations, thousands of people flooded the streets, angry with a political class they accuse of pushing the economy to the point of collapse, demanding the government's resignation.
On Thursday, Aoun met with the UN Secretary General's Representative in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, who briefed him on the position of the ISG on the latest developments. Members of the Group visited Hariri on Tuesday and held a meeting at UN offices in Yarzeh upon the request of Kubis. Ministerial sources said that Hariri told his visitors this week that he supports producing a political shock in the country. “This is what the PM has been working on during his contacts with officials. Hariri deals with the popular movement as the product of a political crisis that can only be solved through politics, and not through security measures,” the sources added. During a meeting held between Berri and a PSP delegation on Thursday, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said that Aoun would not accept a cabinet reshuffle if it includes the removal of Free Patriotic Movement leader, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, according to the same sources. Aoun fears that scapegoating Bassil, who is his son-in-law, would benefit the Lebanese Forces, which would launch a political and media campaign against Hezbollah and would destabilize the support provided by the FPM to the Shiite party.

Hizbullah Supporters Clash with Protesters in al-Fakiha, Incident Reported in Masnourieh
Naharnet/October 25/2019
A clash erupted Friday evening in the Bekaa town of al-Fakiha between protesters and supporters of Hizbullah. The clash involved a fistfight and attacks on cars and the army eventually contained the situation, LBCI TV said. Gunshots were also fired in the air during the incident. Separately, a clash was reported in the Metn town of Mansourieh between protesters and a group of young men. The army intervened and separated between the two groups. Tensions surged on the streets ahead of and after a speech by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as supporters of his party clashes with protesters and riot police in downtown Beirut. Supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement later staged demos in the capital and several Lebanese regions.

Lebanon Protesters Reject Concessions, Block Key Roads
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019
Anti-corruption protesters cut off major roads in Lebanon for a ninth day Friday, pledging to keep paralysing the country despite an offer by the president to meet their representatives. The demonstrators, who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon prompting the closure of banks and schools, have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing it of systematic corruption. Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend.
Lebanon's largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the demonstrations, which have drawn Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze. Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colours normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon's political leaders. "All of them means all," has been a popular slogan. In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands. But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections. "We want to stay on the street to realise our demands and improve the country," one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, told AFP. "We want the regime to fall... The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us," said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator. Hizbulah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was due to give a speech later on Friday.
'Risk of chaos'
On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirut's main highways, including the road to the airport and the coast road towards second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the centre of the carriageway. But there was no sign any move by the army to try to reopen the road. In central Beirut, where street parties have gone on into the early hours, groups of volunteers again gathered to collect the trash. "We are on the street to help clean up and clean up the country," volunteer Ahmed Assi said.
"We will take part in the afternoon to find out what the next stage will be," said the 30-year-old, who works at a clothing company. In a rare moment of violence in the otherwise peaceful demonstrations, scuffles broke out in central Beirut on Thursday, injuring one protester, when Hezbollah members began chanting slogans in support of their leader.  The partisan display grated with the non-sectarian atmosphere cultivated by most of the protesters. Lebanon's Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, headlined its front page "Risk of chaos", saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads. Hezbollah maintains a large, well-disciplined military wing. Fares al-Halabi, a 27-year-old activist and researcher at a non-governmental organisation, told AFP that "the Lebanese parties are trying to penetrate the demonstrations and put pressure on them or split them."
Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between the rival faction leaders has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year civil war in neighbouring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanon's population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. The post-war political system was supposed to balance the competing interests of Lebanon's myriad sects but its effect has been to entrench power and influence along sectarian lines.

One person lightly injured after shooting near Riad al-Solh square in Beirut
Jake Boswell and Lauren Holtmeier/Special to Al Arabiya/English .Friday, 25 October 2019
At least one person has been lightly injured after a reported shooting near Riad al-Solh square, one of two main protest sites in central Beirut, a security source confirmed to Al Arabiya. “There was a shooting that came from one car that was part of a convoy of motorcycles that was coming out of the suburb. It slightly injured one person close to Omar Beyhum on the external highway and the army intervened,” the source said. Earlier in the day, Hezbollah supporters clashed with protesters in Beirut, according to Al Arabiya's correspondent. Riot police came in to separate the two groups, Al Arabiya reported, as the army reiterated its pledge to protect demonstrators. Ongoing protests entered its ninth day on Friday with many Lebanese calling for the current ruling class and government to step down. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday that he will not accept demands for early elections, the bringing down of Lebanon’s president nor the resignation of the government. He added that he had trust in the government to work on reforms introduced by Prime Minister Saad Hariri on October 21. So far, the largely peaceful protests have seen Lebanese from all sects and social classes take to the streets following a string of worsening economic conditions in the country, where the final catalyst was a tax introduced on WhatsApp. However, in recent days and following Nasrallah’s speech, there has been a slight uptick in the number of visible Hezbollah supporters on the street, marking a break from the cross-sectarian unity of the other protestors. In his speech, Nasrallah instructed his supporters to leave the streets but also said that if Hezbollah participated in the protest it would become a political protest rather than a civil one.

Protesters Stay on Streets despite Riad al-Solh Clashes, Hizbullah-AMAL Demos
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 25/2019
Lebanese protesters set up tents, blocking traffic in main thoroughfares and sleeping in public squares on Friday to enforce a civil disobedience campaign and keep up the pressure on the government to step down. By early afternoon, scuffles broke out in the epicenter of the protests in central Beirut, when supporters of Hizbullah entered the area to reject chants against their leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was named by the protest movement as one among the political elite who must leave. "Nasrallah is more honorable than all of them," the pro-Hizbullah protesters chanted. They scuffled with the protesters who were previously in the square until riot police tried to break up the fight. The scuffles came shortly before Nasrallah was due to speak. Anger has been building among Hizbullah supporters because the protesters named him, along with other corrupt politicians. At least two protesters were injured in the scuffles. The riot police encircled the pro-Hizbullah protesters, who carried batons, separating them from the other protesters. But tension returned when the protesters moved down the main road, lobbing stones and at one point attacking a TV crew from a station aligned with a Hizbullah rival. Some protesters chanted for calm. The riot police formed layered lines to separate the Hizbullah supporters from the other protesters. Later on Friday, supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement roamed the streets in Beirut’s southern suburbs and the southern city of Tyre, some of them on motorcycles, in a show of force and allegiance. Protesters meanwhile started flocking to the Riad al-Solh and Martyrs squares in downtown Beirut after the end of the scuffles. Banks, universities and schools remained closed Friday, the ninth day of nationwide protests, which initially were triggered by new proposed taxes that followed public spending cuts.
Earlier Friday, protesters briefly closed the highway linking the southern city of Sidon to Beirut, burning tires and blocking traffic. The army later removed the tires and reopened the road. On the highway linking eastern and western Beirut, protesters set up tents, some sleeping on the road, to block traffic. They allowed only ambulances and army vehicles through. Protesters waved banners that read: "You have put up with the state, bear with us for a couple of days," to motorists who arrived at a blocked road linking eastern Beirut to its southern suburbs.
In its first official warning, the army urged the protesters to respect the right of the people to move, calling on them to stop blocking roads. "The Army Command warns against continued use of these means, obstructing personal and public freedom," the military said in a statement on its official Twitter account.
Amnesty International said the Lebanese protesters are making their voices heard in a peaceful manner, including the blocking of roads. Despite government promises of reforms, the leaderless protesters have dug in, saying the country's incumbent officials are corrupt and must go.
"We will accept nothing less than the resignation of the government, the president, dissolving the parliament and holding early parliamentarian elections," said Mohammad Mazloum, an engineer who has been protesting since the protests began on Oct. 17. Mazloum said he spent the night in the tent set up on one of the highways. The unprecedented mass protests come amid a deepening economic crisis in Lebanon. They have united Lebanese against the country's sectarian-based leaders, who have ruled since the end of Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.
Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted nations, with public debt over 150 percent of the gross domestic product. The protesters accuse the politicians of amassing wealth even as the country gets poorer.
He said he and fellow protesters from various cities and sects have been putting their heads together to come up with new, alternative names to the incumbent politicians. The country's top politicians have addressed the protesters, telling them they have heard their complaints. Prime Minister Saad Hariri presented a reform program which was only passed in the Cabinet after street pressure. President Michel Aoun asked the protesters to send representatives for talks with him.
Nasrallah has warned that the resignation of the Cabinet would plunge Lebanon into political feuding and possibly chaos and even “civil war.”

Lebanon's revolution: I am terrified of the morning after
Ayah Bdier/Annahar/October 25, 2019
If we don’t seize this moment to make a radical change, it will be the final blow. Our hearts cannot handle such an epic emotional failure.
No one saw this coming. And what we saw has been awe inspiring.
I saw some of our compatriots face fear and violence and beatings against thugs because they felt the cause was much bigger than them. I saw some of the most cynical people I know wake up with resolve and drive hours to go to the protests. I saw some of the most disengaged of my expat friends glued to their phones and laptops overseas so they wouldn’t miss a beat.
But my heart is also beating fast because I am terrified. I am terrified of the morning after.
What now? Where do we put our energy? Who do we endorse? Where do we vote? Where do we sign? What organization do we give money to? What is our plan? What is our strategy to get our demands? Who is going to implement it? What happens when the government resigns? Who takes over? Who is the face of this revolution? Who are our next leaders?
I am terrified that this protest will fizzle. I am afraid that people have let some steam out, got a dose of adrenaline from the camaraderie and will now go back to their lives the morning after.
Most of all I am terrified that if we don’t seize this moment to make a radical change, it will be the final blow. Our hearts cannot handle such an epic emotional failure.
For this revolution, we dug deep into our hearts to find hope after decades of apathy. We dug deep, very deep, and put our hearts on the line. We said that we were willing to forego decades of pain, of frustration, of violence, of fear, of being far from each other, of being ashamed of our country, of being powerless to change. We all entered into a contract that this was worth it, this was going to work.
If it doesn’t work, we are finished. The emotional carnage will be too large.
As far as I know no party has emerged with enough organization and clout to withstand the warlords we are fighting. There are lists of demands, but no faces to them. There are no inspiring speeches to rally to. There are no meetings to go to. There are no action plans to implement.
Today I saw multiple civic organizations cursing at each other, factions emerging, or re-emerging. In Martyr square there were multiple stages competing with each other for air space. I went from one to the other to figure out who was calling on people to join future meetings, I couldn’t find them.
We all agree on the demands:
1- Current government resigns
2- Temporary government takes control with outsized influence
3- New elections take place
I’m in. What next?
I didn’t see debates to take part in, places to sign up, candidates to talk to, tasks to take on. I am told strategic conversations are happening, where are they? How do we join them?
Some want to stay on the streets, chanting, putting pressure on the government, keeping streets closed. We need that.
Others want to organize, talk politics, identify candidates. Where do we do that?
We are up against thugs, criminals, parties with decades of experience organizing. We are many, yes, and we are loud, but we need to be ruthless. We need to be cunning, we need to rise up fast and build a machine.
Multiple independent organizations are collaborating: this is fantastic. Let’s create an umbrella organization and go. This is not the time for factions or competition. We don’t need to agree on everything. This is the time for us to quickly form an umbrella opposition group. One website, one social media account, one email list, one meeting place. And let’s blast it from the rooftops.
We need a leader, quick. But perfect is the enemy of good. They have to be clean, they have to be unaffiliated, they have to be charismatic and they have to be ruthless. But they don’t have to be perfect. They don’t have to be our leader for the long term, they just need to be able to pull us together for this phase.
If you are organizing, come out of the shadows. Do it in public. Call for a speech at a certain time. Point us to a website. Give us future dates to meet.
Videos of belly dancers in downtown are going viral within minutes, give us a plan, we will make it viral within seconds.
On Thursday night, we launched DaleelThawra.com, a directory that consolidates all initiatives, websites, donations and campaigns both locally and internationally. Please let us know what you think and help make it better.
Daleelalthawra@gmail.com
instagram: @daleelthawra
twitter @daleelthawra
*Lebanese-Canadian Ayah Bdier is the founder and CEO of @littleBits, a successful technology company based in NYC, @TEDFellow, alum @medialab, @eyebeamnyc, @CreativeCommons. A graduate of AUB, Bdier also holds a MS from the Media Lab, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Tensions Rattle Protests after Attacks by Hizbullah Supporters
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/October 25/2019
Tensions rattled Lebanon's nine-day protest movement Friday as supporters of Hizbullah clashed with protesters and riot police at Beirut’s Riad al-Solh Square. The demonstrators -- who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon -- have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing many across different parties of systematic corruption. Nasrallah in a televised speech Friday warned that any cabinet resignation would lead to "chaos and collapse" of the economy. "We do not support the resignation of the government," he said. Lebanon's national flag, instead of his party's colors, was seen behind him. Hizbullah is a major political player in Lebanon and with its allies holds the majority in the cabinet. Nasrallah also called on his partisans to leave the streets after scuffles broke out in Beirut between them and other anti-graft protesters.
Unprecedented protests have erupted in some Hizbullah strongholds, but some of its supporters have also taken offense to slogans against their leader.
In the capital's main square, protesters fell silent to listen to Nasrallah's speech broadcast on loudspeakers.
As it neared its end, the police moved in to separate Hizbullah supporters from the rest of the demonstrators, an AFP correspondent said. Before they retreated, Hizbullah backers threw rocks, plastics bottles and branches at the other demonstrators, who responded in kind chanting "Revolution". TV networks meanwhile reported a clash between protesters and Hizbullah supporters in the Bekaa town of al-Fakiha. In Beirut, MTV said shots were fired at retreating Hizbullah supporters in the Qasqas area, injuring three of them. The army has since deployed heavily in the area to preserve security. The army and special forces deployed along the road outside Hizbullah's stronghold in Beirut, apparently to prevent renewed friction. Members of Hizbullah also deployed on entrance and exits to the southern suburbs, in a clear move to block supporters from heading to central Beirut.
'All of them'
Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Lebanon's largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the protests. Drawing in Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze, the street movement has largely been peaceful -- evolving into celebrations after nightfall. Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon's political leaders. "All of them means all," has been a popular slogan. After initially welcoming the protests as spontaneous, Nasrallah on Friday insinuated that the protesters were being manipulated. In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands. But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections. "We want to stay on the street to realize our demands and improve the country," one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, told AFP. "We want the regime to fall... The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us," said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator. Blocked roads
On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirut's main highways, including the road to the airport and the coastal road towards second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the center of the carriageway. The army in a statement urged demonstrators to refrain from such measures and "respect of freedom of circulation." Rights group Amnesty International defend blocking roads as "legitimate", and called on Lebanese authorities to "refrain from trying to forcefully disperse peaceful assemblies." On Thursday, scuffles had already broken out in central Beirut, injuring one protester. Lebanon's Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hizbullah, early Friday already headlined its front page "Risk of chaos", saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads.
Hizbullah is the only movement not to have disarmed after Lebanon's 15-year civil war. Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between them has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year war in neighboring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanon's population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank.

Roukoz Calls for 'Total' Govt. Change
Naharnet/October 25/2019
MP Shamel Roukoz said he backs a total governmental change and that a new government of specialists must be formed as soon as possible to address the current situation in Lebanon, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Protests in Lebanon entered week two and have morphed into a cross-sectarian street mobilisation against a political system seen as corrupt and broken. Roukoz of the Strong Lebanon Bloc and the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, said that forming a small government of “specialists is needed to get the country out of the current crisis, address the social situation, and launch an economic renaissance and fight corruption.”Roukoz added: “Let the President and Prime Minister quickly choose distinctive names to get this going as it should.”On Thursday, Aoun offered to meet the protesters whose week-old mobilisation to demand a complete overhaul of the political system has brought the country to a standstill. But Aoun's first speech since the start of the unprecedented protest movement was met with disdain by demonstrators who see him and the entire political class as part of the problem, not the solution. “Now there is no state for me, the government is not meeting, and decisions are not taken,” he said. “A new government can be formed in a matter of days to make a quick and clean change,” he added.

A Surge in Protests around the World in October
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019
The past weeks have seen a wave of often unprecedented protest movements erupt in countries around the world.
Here is an overview of the main ones that started this month and others that are continuing.
- Bolivia -
- When?
Since October 21.
- Trigger?
The disputed results of the October 20 presidential election which gave outgoing leader Evo Morales almost outright victory for a fourth term.
- State of play?
There has been violence in several regions; a general strike was launched on October 23.
- Toll?
Several people have been injured in clashes between supporters and opponents of Morales.
- Chile -
- When?
Since October 18.
- Trigger?
An increase in the price of metro tickets in the capital.
- State of play?
President Sebastian Pinera suspended the price hike and then announced social measures such as increased pensions and lower electricity costs. But the protests spread, including complaints about living costs and social inequality. A general strike started on October 23.
- Toll?
18 dead.
- Lebanon -
- When?
Since October 17.
- Trigger?
A proposed tax on calls made through messaging apps.
- State of play?
The government of Saad Hariri quickly axed the measure and announced emergency economic reforms. But the protests have widened to demand the removal of the entire political class.
- Toll?
Peaceful protests, marked by several clashes, have paralyzed the country and dozens of people have been injured while one person has been killed in an incident related to a blocked road.
- Guinea -
- When?
Since October 7.
- Trigger?
Accusations that President Alpha Conde is trying to circumvent a bar on a third term in office.
- State of play?
Thousands of people have joined a string of demonstrations organized by an alliance of opposition groups, the FNDC.
- Toll?
Around 10 protesters killed.
- Ecuador -
- When?
From October 1 to 13.
- Trigger?
The scrapping of fuel subsidies.
- State of play?
After 12 days of protests, President Lenin Moreno and the indigenous movement, which has spearheaded the demonstrations, reached an agreement under which the government reinstated fuel subsidies.
Toll? Eight killed and 1,340 injured.
- Iraq -
When? Since October 1.
- Trigger?
Spontaneous calls on social media to protest corruption, unemployment and poor public services.
- State of play?
After a week of protests that quickly escalated into clashes with security forces, the government announced reforms. Protesters continue to demand an end to corruption and unemployment, and an overhaul of the political system. On October 25 the protests resumed, with a new upsurge of violence, fanned by Shiite political leader Moqtada Sadr.
- Toll?
More than 150 dead the first week. At least 12 on Friday alone.
- Ongoing movements -
Other protest movements, which started earlier this year, are continuing:
- In Hong Kong, a protest movement started on June 9 in response to a draft government bill that would allow extradition to mainland China.
After months of regular protests, including some of the worst violence the former British colony has known, the extradition bill was withdrawn in September. But the campaign had already broadened to demand greater democratic freedoms.
Initially peaceful, the protests have degenerated into violent clashes between protesters and security forces. Numerous pro-democracy activists have been attacked by supporters of mainland China. On October 1 police shot a protestor with a live bullet but he survived.
- In Algeria, the decision by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to run for a fifth term sparked a wave of peaceful demonstrations on February 22.
Bouteflika resigned in April but protesters continue to demand an overhaul of the entire political establishment. The opposition rejects elections under the current establishment, called for December 12.

The Military in the Middle
Aram Nerguizian/Carnegie/October 25/2019
In a period of unpredictable change, Lebanon’s armed forces are indispensable to internal stability.
Lebanon’s ongoing street protests against the political class and the sectarian political order have made the Lebanese armed forces indispensable to internal stability during a time of unpredictable change. The institution’s mission parameters are deceptively simple: protect key government institutions and the public, and stand for and with the protesters. To that end, the military has deployed all of its operational units—80 percent of some 80,000 personnel.
Throughout these unprecedented protests, the armed forces have worked to maintain a contentious balance between the needs and fears of Lebanon’s sectarian system and the demands and aspirations of a newly energized public. The institution has sidestepped calls from the country’s competing factions to bring the protests to an end, thus preserving the unique goodwill that the military enjoys.
As uncertainty transforms into a protracted cycle of civil unrest, Lebanon’s sectarian political elites will only redouble their demands that the armed forces restore the status quo ante, as will their scrutiny of the intent of the military leadership. But given the armed forces’ cross-sectarian appeal, the fact that officers and enlisted personnel can’t help but sympathize with the protesters and the truly historic nature of current events, the military faces a key test: It can either maintain the confidence of the large number of protesters, or it can backtrack and trigger a potential catastrophe on a scale few can predict, let alone fully understand.
The cross-sectarian character of the armed forces helped cement its role as Lebanon’s most popular national institution. It is also critical to understanding how the military responded to both previous protests and cases of civil unrest.
In 2005, when mass demonstrations took place following the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, the military refused to carry out repressive orders from the Karami government. It had sensed a shift in the balance of power in Lebanon and the region, and opted instead to act as a protective buffer for anti-Syria demonstrators. In contrast, the military chose not to engage militarily during the May 2008 street clashes between Hezbollah and the embryonic militia of the predominantly Sunni Future Movement.
During my background discussions with senior military officers in 2014, some described May 2008 as a case of military neutrality. Others saw the armed forces’ inaction at the time as a watershed event and a key missed opportunity wherein the innocence of the post-Syria military was compromised. Be that as it may, the 2008 crisis underscored the armed forces’ indispensable domestic role after 2005 as a bulwark against any Sunni-Shi‘a military confrontation.
To the armed forces the current protests stand apart from past cycles of civil unrest. The anti-Syrian demonstrations of 2005 lacked a robust cross-sectarian character due the absence of the bulk of the Shi‘a community and other groups seeking favorable ties with Syria. The 2008 crisis went to the heart of Sunni-Shi‘a tensions in Lebanon. And the 2015 “You Stink” protests directed against the breakdown in waste management took place without the participation of much of Lebanon’s poor and the middle classes, who remained beholden to the country’s competing sectarian political forces.
The 2019 protests, in turn, have no equivalent in the country’s post-Independence history. They have been defined thus far by their broad geographic scope beyond metropolitan Beirut and their inclusiveness across traditionally stubborn sectarian dividing lines. Of critical importance this time are the tremendous risks being taken by poor and middle class Shi‘a to participate in protests across Lebanon. Furthermore, the protests also enjoy the support of poor and middle class Sunnis in Tripoli and throughout the country.
Throughout the latest events, Lebanese have expressed common narratives tied to collective socioeconomic conditions, citizenship, and national belonging. As a result the protests, born out of frustration with the ruling elite that cuts across class, sectarian, and geographic dividing lines, resonate with the ethos, aspirations, and self-image of today’s increasingly professional armed forces.
Lebanon’s sectarian factions all see the current mix of protests as an existential threat to their postwar political order and have pressed the armed forces to empty the streets and clear roads across the country. However, the military has brushed aside calls to clear protest centers in downtown Beirut and elsewhere. Indeed, army units deterred alleged Amal and Hezbollah sympathizers from disrupting peaceful demonstrations in the downtown. After initially obeying orders to remove roadblocks between Beirut and Jounieh, the armed forces quickly aborted that effort rather than break faith with protestors and the Lebanese in general. Lastly, the military publicly affirmed that it stood with the protesters’ right to demonstrate peacefully, so long as they avoided damage to public and private property.
As the civil unrest persists, the armed forces will be asked to play an ever-larger role given the scale of the economic and political challenges to come. To that end, the military must protect its image as a national institution. This will mean navigating Lebanon’s changing political minefield while remaining true to the faith so many Lebanese place in their military. To do otherwise would be a Potemkin moment that could cost the military what it needs most, namely the trust and support of the Lebanese people.

Jumblatt: Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 25 October 2019
Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said on Friday that Lebanese Hezbollah considers the situation in the country to be an American-Israeli conspiracy. “The country is divided. Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy,” Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said in an interview with Al Hadath. Hezbollah supporters are reported to have clashed with protesters in Beirut on Friday, according to Al Arabiya’s correspondent. Minor scuffles between protesters and Hezbollah supporters in Riad Al Solh square in Beirut were reported Thursday night. There are fears of Hezbollah and Amal supporters disrupting the protests, after men on motorbikes tried to get through to demonstrators on Monday night. Protesters have also been attacked in Nabatieh and Sour in the south of the country. Jumblatt said on Thursday in a tweet that the best solution out of mass protests triggered by an economic crisis is to speed up a government reshuffle as proposed by Lebanese President Michel Aoun.

Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current
MEMRI/October 25/2019
Protest-Wave: It Is Hizbullah That Caused The Economic Crisis In The Country
In the past week, mass protests have been raging in Lebanon over the high cost of living, the surfeit of taxes, the corruption in the political system and the sectarianism in the country. The protests, which broke out spontaneously on October 17 in response to the government's intention to tax WhatsApp calls, have so far been devoid of any specific sectarian, religious or political character, and seem to involve all sectors of the Lebanese society. They are directed at the Lebanese authorities as a whole, which are accused of corruption and of leading the country into a deep economic crisis. Taking place in numerous locations across Lebanon, the demonstrations refuse to abate despite the government's promise to cancel the new taxes and despite PM Sa'd Al-Hariri's announcement of a comprehensive economic rescue plan that includes, among other measures, an increase in taxes on bank profits and cuts to politicians' wages. The protestors deem this insufficient and are demanding the resignation of the government and the holding of new parliamentary elections.
The mass protests were not unexpected, however, since Lebanon has been in the grip of a severe economic crisis for quite some time. The most conspicuous manifestation of this crisis is a debt of some $100 billion, which has forced the Lebanese government to announce severe austerity measures in order to unlock $11 billion in aid pledged by the donor countries at the CEDRE Conference, held in France on April 6, 2019. The crisis has been exacerbated by the tightening of the U.S. sanctions on Hizbullah and its institutions, and recently also on the Lebanese Jamal Trust bank, which was forced to shut down due to sanctions imposed on it for its financial ties with Hizbullah. In the past month, a dollar shortage in Lebanon's banking system and a drop in the value of the Lebanese pound have destabilized the economy and sparked protests in specific sectors that later spread to the entire country.
In light of the crisis, even before the outbreak of the current mass protests, some Lebanese politicians and journalists held Hizbullah responsible for the economic situation in the country. They claimed that the organization's activity in the service of Iran had caused trouble for Lebanon and brought its economy to the point of collapse. Hizbullah, for its part, placed the blame for the crisis on Riad Salameh, the governor of Lebanon's central bank, who implemented the sanctions on the organization, although this accusation was widely rejected.
It should be noted that, since the outbreak of the protests, only very few voices in Lebanon have explicitly held Hizbullah responsible for the dire economic situation. This may be due to the protesters' desire to avoid lending the demonstrations, which are currently perceived as non-partisan, any sectarian or political orientation, which could alienate parts of the public and thus decrease their momentum.
This report will review some of the statements by Lebanese politicians and writers who blamed Hizbullah for the economic crisis before the eruption of the current protests.
Lebanese Writers: Lebanon Is Paying The Price Of Hizbullah's Loyalty To Iranian Axis
As stated, even before the outbreak of the protests, Lebanese figures and columnists claimed that the country is paying heavily for Hizbullah's commitment to Iran's interests, and that the U.S. sanctions that have been imposed on Hizbullah because of this commitment are affecting the Lebanese economy. Former labor minister Camille Abousleiman (who resigned from the government several days ago along with the other ministers from his party, Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces, in response to the protests), said on September 15, 2019: "The sanctions [on Hizbullah] have a severe impact Lebanon. What is happening in our lives today is the result of [Hizbullah's] defending Iran and involving Lebanon in its affairs... If Hizbullah decides to confront the U.S. in the economic arena, and if [the U.S.] starts to pressure the banks, as it has done with the Jammal Trust bank, the result will be a catastrophe. That is why I hope the confrontation will remain far away from the economic arena... Lebanon is experiencing a very grave financial and economic crisis, and we must launch a rescue plan. There is insufficient awareness of the gravity of the situation. It's true that an economic emergency situation was declared three weeks ago, but nothing has [actually] been done."[1]
Ahmad Al-'Ayyash, a columnist for the Al-Nahar daily, couched his criticism in harsher terms, writing: "Lebanon's current government, which is under the influence of Iranian [Supreme] Leader Ali Khamenei, is not very different from the Vichy government that was created by the German Fuhrer Adolf Hitler after his conquest of France... The influence Hitler wielded by means of this government back then is similar to Khamenei's influence over the Lebanese government today... No matter what ultimately befalls the [Iranian] regime, Lebanon will pay heavily for this influence, on every level, as is [already] happening today on the economic level..."[2]
Journalist 'Ali Al-Amin, known for his opposition to Hizbullah, wrote in the London-based daily Al-Arab that Lebanon's economy is slipping due to Hizbullah's black market activity, which is prompted by the U.S. sanctions. "Hizbullah," he added, "has conveyed that it will not allow anyone to throttle it by economic means, and that, if it is left with no choice, it will not [face this fate] alone. All of Lebanon will suffocate [with it]..."[3]
Lebanese Writer: An Economic Confrontation Between Hizbullah And U.S. Will Lead To Lebanon's Collapse
Lebanese author and journalist Antoine Farah wrote: "Hizbullah has decided to confront the [new] sanctions that the U.S. is expected [to impose on it]. The talk we are increasingly hearing, about 'plans' being discussed for this confrontation, does not bode well, [namely the plans to] directly involve the state or to encourage it to 'isolate' the U.S. by suspending cooperation with it and turning to cooperate with other countries!... These creative ideas [of Hizbullah's] not only hasten [Lebanon's economic] collapse, but also ensure that the phase following the collapse will be much harder than it will be if [Hizbullah] does not force [the state] to commit suicide. Today we have several models [of what can happen] following an economic collapse. One model is that of Greece, which following its collapse received preferential treatment [from the international community] that helped it complete its recovery within a reasonable period of time and with obvious efficiency... The other model is that of Venezuela, which reached the point of collapse many years ago but has not yet been able to launch a rescue plan, and the situation of its citizens is [therefore] going from bad to worse. Their country operates outside the international system, [for] it is the spearhead of the resistance axis. As a result, Venezuela does not receive any support worth noting to help it emerge from the pit. It is deep in the abyss. Its people are starving, its food stores are bare, yet the state [keeps saying] 'resistance until victory.'
"Those who say that perpetuating the current situation will lead to Lebanon's collapse are not exaggerating. Hizbullah's decision to fight the U.S. using the Lebanese people's money will hasten the collapse and will prolong the stay at the bottom, just like in the case of Venezuela."[4]
Lebanese Officials Condemn Hizbullah For Blaming The Crisis On The Central Bank Governor
Even before the outbreak of the protests, as the economic crisis unfolded, Hizbullah and elements close to it began blaming the situation on the Lebanese banks, and especially on central bank governor Riad Salameh, accusing them of treason and of serving the U.S. and collaborating with its sanctions against Hizbullah. Lebanese elements replied that Hizbullah itself was responsible for the crisis and was trying to obscure this by shifting the blame to others. For example, former MP Fares Sou'aid tweeted on September 26: "Hizbullah's campaign against the governor of Lebanon's central bank, Riad Salameh, does him an injustice. [Hizbullah] wants him to be held responsible for the financial crisis, and refuses to admit its own responsibility for this crisis, which is purely political [in origin]."[5] In another tweet, he wrote: "Blaming the central bank for the [economic] situation, while ignoring the role of Hizbullah, which is the cause of the crisis, is misleading. If Hizbullah takes over Lebanon we will not remain silent over it, even if we are the only ones [to speak out]."[6]
Maronite patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi said that "the attempt to evade responsibility and place it on one person or institution is worrisome. The state and its institutions are in charge, yet they have not taken any reformative measures or launched any practical initiative to stop the waste and corruption... It is unacceptable to direct criticism at Lebanon's [central] bank and at its governor, who has garnered international acclaim and managed to keep the [Lebanese] currency stable in these difficult conditions... The current authorities must acknowledge their responsibility instead of evading it, shifting the blame to others, and looking for scapegoats, which will [only] undermine [Lebanon's] social, economic, financial and humanitarian stability."[7]
[1] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), September 16, 2019.
[2] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), September 28, 2019.
[3] Al-Arab (London), October 1, 2019.
[4] Al-Jumhouriyya (Lebanon), September 16, 2019.
[5] Twitter.com/FaresSouaid, September 26, 2019.
[6] Twitter.com/FaresSouaid, September 28, 2019.
[7] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), September 30, 2019.

Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon
روبرت فيسك/انديبندنت: حزب الله يهدد الإحتجاجات السلمية في لبنان العابرة للطوئف والطائفية
Robert Fisk/Independent/October 25/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79845/%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%83-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%af%d9%86%d8%aa-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%8a%d9%87%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5/
It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement
Those tens of thousands of largely young protesters demanding a non-sectarian Lebanon were joyful, filled with happiness, determined that this time they would change the wretched confessional nature of their state forever. Then the Hezbollah turned up, a truckload of them, dressed in black and shouting through loudspeakers and holding up posters of their all-Shia militia heroes. Squads of Lebanese interior ministry police appeared in the side streets.
It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement. The young men and women in the street shouted as one: “The government is corrupt, the sectarian leaders are corrupt, all members of parliament are thieves — thieves, thieves, thieves.” But they never – deliberately – mentioned the name of the Hezbollah chairman Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah serves in the Lebanese government.
And two of the men jumped down from the truck – big, tough figures towering over the younger protesters – dodging the police line and moved into the demonstrators, shouting and demanding they end their curses about sectarianism. “The Sayed [Nasrallah] is the only one who is not corrupt!” one of them screamed.
These men did not come to talk to the protesters or discuss their objections or even argue. They preached at them, raising their voices and bellowing their words. For a moment I wondered if I was perhaps in the holy city of Kerbala or Najaf. There is in fact no evidence that Nasrallah is corrupt; but thanks to US sanctions on Syria and Iran, the Hezbollah may be running out of cash.
Then the cops, all riot shields and batons, formed two ranks between the Hezbollah and their adversaries.
“I have come from Nabatieh and I have been here eight days and nothing has happened,” the Shiite – no friend of the Hezbollah even though Nabatieh is in the militia’s effective area of control – shouted back.
So is this to be the new pattern of Lebanon’s “revolution”? Will the attacks start now, as they did in Nabatieh this week, when Hezbollah supporters used batons to clear the town’s central square of protesters?
The signs of government decay are everywhere. When the elderly president Michel Aoun gave a short pre-recorded speech on television on Thursday, it was noticed at once that he had been unable even to complete a short series of sentences in one take. The leather-bound books behind him – none of which, I suspect, he has ever read – suddenly changed their position on the shelves between his sentences.
Then a Lebanese journalist, claiming to know all about the broadcast, said that Aoun had fallen asleep between his sentences.
Aoun and prime minister Hariri had earlier told the country’s interior minister, Raya al-Hassan, that she must order the interior police to use water cannons to clear the streets of Beirut and the country’s main highways.
“I will not give this order,” she replied. “This matter is political. It is not a security matter.” Hassan, needless to say, is perhaps the only popular government minister in this country. Nor are the cops or the army unsympathetic to the protesters. Two soldiers were caught on camera weeping with emotion.
Then came the video of minister Akram Shayeb leaving his downtown office to find protesters outside the door. His bodyguards raised their rifles – some of them apparently fired shots in the air – and one pointed his gun at a young woman. “Don’t you threaten us,” she cried, ran forward and kicked the gunman in the testicles. The image of her now famous kick is spray-painted on the walls of central Beirut.
In Martyrs’ Square, the tens of thousands of demonstrators had no time for talk of government “reform”. Nor was there a word about a proposed tax on WhatsApp. The men and women here were highly educated, many with their children, and in many cases professionals: doctors, lawyers, university staff. If this protest fails – and what they want, of course, is constitutional change – they will in many cases leave their country forever, impoverishing Lebanon for generations.
But they were not all rich. I saw poorly dressed farming men and women, in plastic shoes, no socks and dirty clothes. When the sky poured, an old man with a crumpled face and a clutch of plastic umbrellas over his arm ran to me and offered to sell me a brolly for 5,000 Lebanese pounds – about £2.50. When I gave him the money he put it to his lips and kissed the banknotes over and over again, the poor man’s way of expressing his thanks for good fortune.
The crowds here were deeply impressed by a Shiite cleric whose sermon in Beirut told the people they were right to demand freedom from a sectarian government. “Your religion is between you and God,” Sheikh Yasser Audi said. “Freedom must be exercised, the Prophet said this.” The Lebanese army commander, General Joseph Aoun – no relation to the near-speechless president – ordered his soldiers to use no violence against any demonstrators. If they were to be forced back, it must be by pushing them with their bodies, and not by drawing weapons.
I saw several Lebanese soldiers ostentatiously shouldering their weapons with the barrels down and the butts up, a traditional symbol of military personnel when they wish to show they do not intend to use violence. But then again, I saw this in Cairo during the 2011 Egyptian revolution – and look what happened to that.
Amid the government – or what is left of it since the Christian Lebanese Forces ministers have resigned – there was talk of Gebran Bassil, the deeply unpopular foreign minister who is indeed the son-in-law of the near-speechless president, being prepared to resign if the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt withdrew his cabinet members from the government.
If this is window dressing, the idea is clearly intended to let the mass protests simmer down. I’m not at all sure, however, that this would any longer work.
The bolder street demonstrations become, the greater their demands. And the cry for an entirely new constitution that will utterly abandon the sectarian system of government in Lebanon has grown stronger and stronger. There are many in the Arab and Muslim world who will wish them to fail. Bashar al-Assad for one, Sisi of Egypt for another. Certainly Iran. And the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, whose petty “reforms” are now utterly overshadowed by the real shout for freedom in Lebanon.
Support free-thinking journalism and attend Independent events
You can see why all the Arab dictators and kings fear this. If Lebanon’s people – especially its young people – succeed in their vast undertaking, then the millions of suppressed and poorly educated men and women across the Arab world will ask why they too cannot have these same freedoms. France supports the Lebanese demonstrators – which is a bit odd since it was the French after the First World War who imposed this vile sectarianism upon Lebanon.
The Americans claim they are on the side of the protests. But I suspect this is because they want the Hezbollah to be disowned by the Lebanese – rather than a new free nation in the Middle East.
Well, we shall see.
In the meantime, we will also find out what Hezbollah has in store.
There is a palpable fear on the streets of Beirut. More than one of the interior ministry cops, I noticed, were wearing black face masks to hide their identity.
More powerful than the Lebanese army, the Hezbollah obviously fears for its own popularity, and worries that it will in the future be cast into the outer darkness of Lebanon’s sectarian world rather than hero-worshipped. Their appearance at the demonstration in Riad Solh Street was extremely sinister. And be sure it will happen again.
Who would have thought that the winners of the 2006 war with Israel would align themselves with the political and corrupt elites of Lebanon?
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-beirut-protests-whatsapp-tax-hezbollah-michel-aoun-a9170716.html?fbclid=IwAR0OsZTDZc5uqh_8cowxm9Imrmw418Rrz1sBGpcxmZhChEBamzu27WFrnyg

People are not fooled: The Lebanese government’s reforms are not the solution
Sami Atallah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2019
The government’s decision on October 17 to increase taxes and impose a fee on WhatsApp sparked unprecedented protests across Lebanon. These are not the first protests in the country – but this instance is different.
Firstly, the protests are spontaneous and leaderless, as people took themselves to the streets on a Thursday night. Secondly, the protests are not Beirut-centric: They are truly nationwide, including in political party strongholds usually immune to such movements. Thirdly, unlike the 2005 protests following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, those of 2011 against the sectarian system, or those of 2015 which were was triggered by the garbage crisis, this movement is primarily a socio-economic revolt triggered by tax. Taken aback, politicians had to quickly acknowledge the grievances of an estimated one million protesters across the country. But they failed to understand how deep the discontent is. Prime Minister Saad Hariri came out with a 72-hour ultimatum to his coalition members. When it came on Monday, October 21, he announced a list of 25 policy measures to address the socio-economic crisis – most of these measures had already been proposed in the CEDRE conference back in April 2018.
It is striking how popular pressure suddenly sped up the government’s ability to act. In three days and one governmental session, it passed measures and bills which far exceeded the two bills - electricity in April 2019 and the Budget Law 2019 in July - that took more than 35 sessions held between February and last week.
Some of these key measures would be welcome: a reduction of the deficit, a commitment to no additional taxes on the people, the adoption of a pension law, and a pledge to fight corruption. However, many of the measures seem unrealistic and fall short of people’s expectations.
The reforms are too little, too late, and there are several concerns.
It is unclear how the government will reduce the deficit from more than 7 percent to almost 0.6 percent of GDP in one year. The task to cut $5 billion is monumental. The government’s claim that it found a way in just three days to achieve this cut, after more than 30 years of chronic budget deficit and without major tax reforms, is suspicious. A roadmap for implementing the plan and putting in place a sustainable and fair public finance framework is missing. Reducing the deficit without taxing the people reveals how arrogant and greedy the political elites have been. They have consistently taxed working people and made them disproportionately carry the tax burden while arguing that there were no other options. The government only backtracked when the unfair tax system triggered this revolt.
The government’s plan to fight corruption – adopted from an existing government strategy – is ridiculous and is merely an attempt to appease donors and suggest it is taking action.
This time, people will have none of that.
If it were serious about reforms, the government would have prepared or even adopted the draft law to make the judiciary independent. It would have also strengthened the oversight agencies including the procurement office. These are crucial elements to fight corruption but the government has been silent on them.
Tellingly, it seems even the prime minister is not convinced of his own plan. He stated that in order to avoid corruption in state contracts, capital investment from taxpayers’ money - a key part of growth - will be zero. To state that the foreign-funded capital investment will be free of corruption is to admit that all publicly contracted projects are already infested with corruption. If this is the case, he should be setting up an independent committee to review all these contracts. Likewise, Hariri provided few details on how pension reforms could work or be funded, and the policy seems to be merely another attempt to appease protesters.
The prime minister also repeated one of the demonstrators’ demands – to give back “stolen money.” But he clearly has neither the intention nor the means to implement a solution. How could he, when many of those who have contributed to public theft are either politicians, or have strong connections to them?
The timeline of the program is also unfeasible, considering how the Lebanese government works. All the proposed policy measures lack credibility, and they hollow out the state rather than build an effective one. There has been a deep failure in governance, and these policy measures cannot and will not be implemented without effective and sustained pressure. There is a chance that Hariri has used the protests to pass measures which had been previously obstructed by his coalition partners to appease donors and gain access to CEDRE money.
But this is not what the country needs.
We need an effective state that works for the people, an accountable government that we can trust which listens to people’s needs, and a social contract where rights are protected and taxes are fairly allocated. None of this has been offered, and people are not fooled.
The protesters have made key gains. Not only have they forced the government to cancel its plans to tax working people, but they have imposed their agenda and are shaping political discourse in the country. They are breaking down the limits of possibility defined by the political elite and are drawing up their own set of rules. This is how fair, democratic, and accountable systems emerge.
*Sami Atallah is the executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). He leads several policy studies on subjects including political and social sectarianism, electoral behavior, and governance of the oil and gas sector. He is currently completing his PhD in Politics at New York University.

Lebanon’s 9th day of protests witness rise in violence
Tarek Aliahmad/ Arab News/October 25/ 2019
Dressed in plain black t-shirts common to Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movement supporters, the men shouted "we heed your call, Nasrallah"
Banks, universities and schools remained closed on Friday
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s ninth day of anti-government protests witnessed a change in pace as clashes erupted between Hezbollah supporters, protestors and riot police, before and after the group’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech.
Several people were injured as both sides hurled projectiles at one another. It was a dramatic shift from the morning, when people in Beirut’s Martyrs Square and Riad Al-Solh calmly set up stands of Lebanese merchandise, and vendors prepared their food offerings.
Riot police were forced to intervene between both sides in an attempt to deter the projectiles following Nasrallah’s speech — which was decried as similar to an earlier address given by Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
“They’re all the same: Hariri, Nasrallah, Aoun, Bassil,” Alaa Mortada, one of the protestors, told Arab News.
“Look at what they’re doing. Aren’t we all Lebanese? This is why we need to remove religion from politics,” he added.
Nasrallah continued to throw his weight behind the Hariri government, claiming that the protests were an “achievement” since they pushed the government to announce a budget with no tax.
“We don’t accept toppling the presidency, we also don’t back government resignation,” he said, adding: “Lebanon has entered a dangerous phase, there are prospects that our country will be politically targeted by international, regional powers.”
He ended the speech by urging his supporters to leave the protests. Several arrests were made following the clashes.
Similar scuffles broke out on Thursday night at the same site in central Beirut.
Following the scuffles more riot police with masks and batons were dispatched to the square to defuse the situation, which appeared to be growing more tense.
The demonstrators, who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon prompting the closure of banks and schools, have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing it of systematic corruption.
The protests are expected to continue throughout the night.
Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Lebanon’s largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the demonstrations, which have drawn Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze.
Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon’s political leaders.
In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands.
But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections.
“We want to stay on the street to realize our demands and improve the country,” one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, said.
“We want the regime to fall ... The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us,” said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator.
On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirut’s main highways, including the road to the airport and the coast road toward second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the center of the carriageway.
But there was no sign of any move by the army to try to reopen the road.
In central Beirut, where street parties have gone on into the early hours, groups of volunteers again gathered to collect the trash.
“We are on the street to help clean up and clean up the country,” volunteer Ahmed Assi said.
“We will take part in the afternoon to find out what the next stage will be,” said the 30-year-old, who works at a clothing company.
Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, headlined its front page “Risk of chaos,” saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads. Hezbollah maintains a large, well-disciplined military wing.
Fares Al-Halabi, a 27-year-old activist and researcher at a non-governmental organization, said that “the Lebanese parties are trying to penetrate the demonstrations and put pressure on them or split them.”
Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between the rival faction leaders has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year civil war in neighboring Syria has compounded the crisis.
More than a quarter of Lebanon’s population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. The post-war political system was supposed to balance the competing interests of Lebanon’s myriad sects but its effect has been to entrench power and influence along sectarian lines.
— With input from Reuters

Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 25/2019
The way the state-controlled media in Tehran put it the wave of protests in Lebanon is about “showing solidarity with Palestine.” Photos of a dozen people burning Israeli and American flags in Beirut come with surrealistic captions about “Lebanese resistance fighters” calling for Jihad against “baby-killing Zionists” and the American “Great Satan.”
What is certain is that the uprising has shaken the parallel universe created by Major-General Qassem Soleimani’s Madison Avenue depiction of Lebanon as the bridgehead for the conquest of the Middle East by Khomeinist ideology. Those familiar with Tehran propaganda know that the mullahs regard Lebanon as their most successful attempt at empire building, worth every cent of the billions of dollars invested there.
Tehran media often boast that Lebanon is the only country where the Islamic Republic controls all levers of power, from the presidency to security services, passing by the Council of Ministers and parliament. More importantly, perhaps, Tehran has forged alliances with powerful figures and groups within every one of the ethnic and sectarian “families” that constitute Lebanon.
In Iraq, Iran has to contend with the presence of powerful Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties and personalities that, while prepared to accommodate Tehran, refuse to act as puppets.
In Yemen, though dependent on Tehran’s money any arms for survival, the Houthis try not to be dragged into the Khomeinist strategy of regional hegemony.
In Syria, Tehran has to contend with Bashar al-Assad and remnants of his constituency who regard the Iranian presence as no more than an evil necessity for survival.
In Gaza, Tehran owes its sporadic influence to fat checks signed for Hamas, the Palestinian branch of Muslim Brotherhood. However, ideological rivalry between Khomeinism and Ikhwanism, casts a permanent shadow on relations between the two outfits. Moreover, Tehran is forced to contend with the presence of powerful rivals in Iraq, in the shape of the United States, and in Syria in the shape of Russia, and now also Turkey.
In his first press interview, headlined by the Tehran media last month, Gen. Soleimani held up Lebanon as the shining example of his success in empire building, vocalizing the parallel universe narrative that has driven the mullahs away from reality.
The 6,000-word interview, slated as an account of the 33-day war between Israel and the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, pursues three objectives. The first is to establish Soleimani’s image as a master strategist who could take on the powerful Israeli army and push it to the edge of destruction.
“If the 33-day war had not been stopped, the Zionist regime’s army would have disintegrated,” he asserts without pushing his tongue into his cheek.
However, why did the general decide to stop the war and thus save the Israeli army?
Soleimani claims that the architect of the ceasefire that saved the Israelis was the then Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Hamad, aided by ex-US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton. Soleimani does not explain why he and his boss in Tehran, “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei, agreed to a plan concocted by the Qatari sheikh and the American diplomat to save the Israeli army on the brink of disintegration.
Soleimani’s second aim is to hammer in the claim that the war forced Israel to abandon what he calls “the Ben Gurion strategy of pre-emptive war” that meant taking the Arab states to the dentist every 10 years and destroy their armies before they could attempt biting the Jewish state.
In other word, if Soleimani is to be believed, Arabs could now sleep in peace, sure that Israel will never launch pre-emptive war against them.
The irony is that in the past 18 months Israel has carried out more than 300 attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq causing hundreds of deaths while Soleimani and his mercenaries maintained as low a profile as they could get away with.
Of Soleimani’s three possible aims the most important, perhaps, is the third one.
In nonchalant manner, he depicts Lebanon as just a piece of territory without a government of its own, its only justification being a glacis for the Islamic Republic. He speaks of his frequent comings and goings to Lebanon without ever mentioning being invited, let alone given a visa, by any Lebanese authority. Nor does he bother to say who authorized the stream of arms, including thousands of missiles, brought to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria. There is no reference to any agreement by any authority to let a foreign military unit conduct a war against a neighboring country from Lebanese territory.
As far as the running of the war is concerned, Soleimani claims that a three-man committee, consisting of himself, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the late Imad Mughniyah. When the three-man committee could not decide a major issue Soleimani would rush to Tehran, and on one occasion, all the way to Mash’had, to obtain instructions from Khamenei. No one talked to the Lebanese president, prime minister, defense minister, or army chief, not to mention the Lebanese man-in-the-street who was never told who started the war and why.
Unwittingly, Soleimani shows that, though it risked the lives of all Lebanese citizens regardless of sectarian differences, the war that Hezbollah triggered was designed to defeat “a sinister anti-Shiite plot” by the Israelis to capture 30,000 Lebanese Shiites, keep them in a camp and giving their villages to non-Shiites to change the demographic balance along the ceasefire line.
To show the alleged cowardice of non-Shiite Lebanese, Soleimani speaks of “Sunni and Christian brothers sitting in their villages, smoking hookah and drinking tea” while Hezbollah Shiites fought to destroy the “Zionist enemy”. However, lest people see that as a sectarian war, Soleimani states “under all circumstances the main protector of the Lebanese nation is Hezbollah.”
I think Soleimani is wrong to write-off Lebanon as a nation-state and reinvent it as an Iranian bridgehead. Having known Lebanon for more than half a century, I can tell him that there is such a thing as “Lebanese-ness” that transcends sectarian and political divides. The Lebanese look to the Mediterranean and the exciting possibilities of the modern world rather than the recesses of the Iranian Plateau under the mullahs with their antediluvian ideology. As a matter of taste, Lebanese-ness is closer to the beach than to the bunker.

Lebanon’s crisis is caused by Iran
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 25/2019
The Lebanese scene has always been part of the great regional playing field, and it has been used by the region’s powers. It has become almost monopolized by Iran through its proxy Hezbollah and forces loyal to the Syrian regime.
The US, too, has increased its activity in Lebanon with the imposition of sanctions on Iran. The Americans realized that they have to stifle the routes through which Tehran evades sanctions, and its most prominent route is Lebanon.
Washington has stepped up its crackdown on Hezbollah’s financial resources, tracing them to Latin America, Africa, Australia and elsewhere. These financial resources are derived from drug trafficking, cigarette smuggling, and even selling fake Viagra.
In the past decade, Tehran has used Hezbollah and made it carry out missions beyond Lebanon’s borders. Iran has turned Hezbollah into a military battalion fighting on its behalf in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere.
Tehran has also turned Lebanon into a propaganda, legal, political and financial center in its service. To do that, Hezbollah seized almost complete control of the state — the airport, ports, border crossings, telephone networks, security and service ministries. This is why the US made Lebanon the target of its scrutiny and sanctions, and there might be further pressure.
Lebanon, without an armed Hezbollah that has allegiance to Iran, could be the most prosperous country in the region. But Lebanon, as it is today, is destined to become worse off.
The anger we see on the streets in Lebanon is partly the result of Hezbollah’s insistence on turning the country into a confrontation line with the West. The consequences are bad and might get worse.
Hezbollah must realize that when it takes the country hostage to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, it risks a confrontation with all the Lebanese people, including Shiites, their latest victims. As we have seen, the voices that have risen up publicly against Hezbollah are also Shiite. Confrontations against it have taken place in its areas of influence, such as Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel and elsewhere.
Lebanon, without an armed Hezbollah that has allegiance to Iran, could be the most prosperous country in the region. But Lebanon, as it is today, is destined to become worse off.
It is true that Hezbollah is not the only local player, and has partners that must also share the blame. The current uprising has raised a slogan rejecting all the leaders in government, and calling for reform of the failing political system because it allows political powers to divide influence and interests at the expense of Lebanon and its people.It may not seem understandable to the Lebanese public that they are paying the price for Hezbollah’s intrusion in the region and its threats against Western interests. But this is the reality that has partly caused the economy to deteriorate, and has placed the government between the hammer of the West and the anvil of Hezbollah. Unless the group curtails its services to Iran, it will suffer and make Lebanon and its people suffer more than before.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 25-26/2019
At least 27 people killed as fresh protests engulf Iraq
Reuters/Friday, 25 October 2019
At least 27 protesters were killed in Iraq on Friday when security forces used tear gas and an Iranian-backed militia opened fire to try to quell renewed demonstrations against corruption and economic hardship, security sources said.
A government intelligence officer and a member of the powerful Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia were killed in a clash with protesters in the southern city of Amara, police sources said. Nearly 1,800 people were injured nationally as demonstrators took to the streets to vent frustration at political elites they say have failed to improve their lives after years of conflict. “All we want are four things: jobs; water, electricity, and safety. That’s all we want,” said 16-year-old Ali Mohammed who had covered his face with a T-shirt to avoid inhaling tear gas, as chaotic scenes overwhelmed Baghdad’s central Tahrir Square. Sirens wailed and tear gas canisters landed in the middle of groups of young protesters wearing Iraqi flags and chanting “with life and blood we defend you Iraq.”“All we want are four things: jobs; water, electricity, and safety. That’s all we want,” said 16-year-old Ali Mohammed who had covered his face with a T-shirt to avoid inhaling tear gas, as chaotic scenes overwhelmed Tahrir Square. Sirens wailed and tear gas canisters landed in the middle of groups of young protesters wearing Iraqi flags and chanting “with life and blood we defend you Iraq.” The bloodshed is the second major bout of violence this month. A series of clashes two weeks ago between protesters and security forces left 157 people dead and over 6,000 wounded. The unrest has broken nearly two years of relative stability in Iraq, which lived through foreign occupation, civil war and an ISIS insurgency between 2003 and 2017. It is the biggest challenge to security since IS was declared beaten. On Friday, eight protesters were killed in Baghdad, the Iraqi Human Rights Commission said. At least five of them were protesters struck by tear gas canisters in Baghdad, security sources said.
In the south, at least six protesters died when members of the Iranian-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia guarding the group’s local office in Nasiriya city opened fire after protesters tried to set the office on fire, security sources said.
Eight people were killed in Amara city, including six protesters, one AAH member, and one intelligence officer, police sources said. One protester was killed in Samawa. Interior Ministry spokesman Khalid al-Muhanna said at least 68 members of the security forces had also been injured. The government has struggled to address popular grievances since sometimes violent demonstrations erupted in Baghdad on October 1, spreading to southern cities, in protest at what many see as a corrupt and incompetent political establishment. The unrest has posed the biggest challenge to Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi since he took office just one year ago. Despite promising reforms and a broad cabinet reshuffle, the premier has so far struggled to address protesters’ discontent.

Esper: US troops, armored vehicles going to Syria oil fields
The Associated Press/Saturday, 26 October 2019
The United States will send armored vehicles and combat troops into eastern Syria to keep oil fields from potentially falling into the hands of ISIS extremists, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Friday. It was the latest sign that extracting the military from Syria is more uncertain and complicated than President Donald Trump is making it out to be. Though Trump repeatedly says he is pulling out of Syria, the reality on the ground is different.
Adding armored reinforcements in the oil-producing area of Syria could mean sending several hundred US troops – even as a similar number are being withdrawn from a separate mission closer to the border with Turkey where Russian forces have been filling the vacuum. Esper described the added force as “mechanized,” which means it likely will include armored vehicles such as Bradley armored infantry carriers and possibly tanks, although details were still being worked out. This reinforcement would introduce a new dimension to the US military presence, which largely has been comprised of special operations forces not equipped with tanks or other armored vehicles.

Tehran Protests US Refusal to Grant Visa to Iranian Economy Minister
Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Iran said it had lodged an official protest with the World Bank after the United States refused to issue a visa to Iran’s economy minister and a delegation that was planning to attend the annual World Bank meeting. Iran’s Economy Minister Farhad Dejpasand has canceled a visit to the United States after his visa application was rejected for the annual meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the official IRNA news agency reported on Thursday. According to IRNA, Dejpasand sent a letter to President of the World Bank Group David R. to express Tehran’s protest against Washington for “placing unnecessary obstacles in the way of the Iranian delegation’s trip and for imposing illegal, unprecedented and hostile restrictions on the Islamic Republic.”In a statement, Iran’s Economy Ministry said the World Bank’s statute “underlines the necessity of not adopting a political approach towards economic delegations from the member countries of the bank,” and emphasized “the immunity of the members of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.” US President Donald Trump signed a decree last month restricting officials and their families from obtaining a visa to enter or reside in the United States. The US decision was part of a policy of maximum pressure exerted by Washington on Tehran to force it to a comprehensive agreement that includes the nuclear deal and regional issues. The United States imposed restrictions on the activities of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during the UN General Assembly after sanctions were imposed on Zarif in early August.

UN Expert Slams Iran’s Child Executions
New York - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran Javaid Rehman has expressed deep concern at the use of the death penalty in Iran, including against minors. His report was brought up during the 74th session of the UN General Assembly, and is based on written reports and information from sources including non-government organizations, defenders of human rights, governments and media outlets. He said the human rights situation in Iran is being exacerbated by a number of "distressing factors". Rehman continued that the Iranians were impacted by the economic sanctions imposed by the US in Nov. 2018. Further, he added that restrictions on freedom of speech and the continuous patterns of violating the rights to life, freedom and fair trials have mounted. Rehman expressed deep concern at the overall use of the death penalty in Iran, saying its execution rate “remains one of the highest in the world” with at least 253 executions in 2018. Currently, there are 90 individuals on death row who were under 18 at the time of their offenses. He also expressed concern at the arbitrary arrest, detention, ill-treatment, and denial of medical care for dual and foreign nationals.
Ethnic and religious minorities are disproportionately represented in Tehran’s executions on charges related to national security, and among its political prisoners, Rehman said. “They are subject to arbitrary arrests and detention for their participation in a range of peaceful activities, such as advocacy for the use of minority languages, for organizing or taking part in peaceful protests and for affiliation with opposition parties,” he said. "Over the past 40 years, the Bahais numbering an estimated 350,000, have suffered from the most egregious forms of repression, persecution and victimization," the UN expert added.

Iran TV Airs Interview with Jailed Instagrammer
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Iranian state television has aired an interview with an Instagrammer famous for drastically altering her appearance through plastic surgery to look like a zombie and arrested for alleged "blasphemy". The social media celebrity known as Sahar Tabar was arrested on the orders of Tehran's Islamic guidance court on October 5 after "numerous requests from the public" for her to be detained, the broadcaster said, according to Agence France Presse. She faces charges including blasphemy, inciting violence, gaining income through inappropriate means and encouraging corruption among the young. "I do not look like these photoshoped pictures right now," the 22-year-old told state television in the interview aired on Tuesday, her face blurred out. "This is close to what I look like these days," Tabar said, holding a phone with a portrait of herself. She resembles Hollywood star Angelina Jolie in the picture, but her face is gaunt, her nose sharply turned up and cheeks sunken. Tabar denied reports she sought to look like Jolie, saying instead that she was inspired by a zombie-like character from the animated fantasy film "Corpse Bride".Her Instagram account, which she said had 486,000 followers, no longer appears to be active. The television channel noted that she was the only child of a divorced couple who had been living with her mother, and that she "could have been in university by now" if not because of her "strange" online persona and fame. "I saw people were following what I did and, when the likes grew, I felt I was doing the right thing," said Tabar, admitting she had not finished high school.Voicing regret, Tabar said her mother had tried to stop her from changing her appearance, but the fame and Instagram likes made her go on. "My childhood dream was to be famous." The broadcaster said Tabar admitted that "vulgarity on social media gets a lot of clicks" and if she had not followed this path, she could have been "in a better place right now".Amnesty International has repeatedly called on Iran to stop broadcasting videos of "confessions" by suspects, saying they "violate the defendants' rights."

IRGC’s Salami: Iran today is stronger than its ‘enemies’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 25 October 2019
Iran’s today is stronger than its “enemies,” who have power but are unable to use it, claimed the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami on Friday, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency. “Being powerful is not just about having power, but also to be able to exercise your power,” said Salami, addressing a group of IRGC commanders in south-west Iran. “Our enemies have power, but are incapable of using it,” he added, adding that Iran is more powerful than its opponents for that reason. Salami had previously claimed that Iran is capable of attacking its enemies anywhere, and that Israel’s destruction is now an “achievable goal.”Iran is accused of pursuing aggressive policies in the region, including attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, threatening shipping in the Arabian Gulf, and continuing to support proxy organizations in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Tensions in the region have been heightened after the September 14 attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities, which Iran is widely accused of carrying out.

Iraq’s IHCHR Demands Government to Protect Demonstrators
Baghdad – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
The Independent High Commission for Human Rights of Iraq (IHCHR) has stressed that peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are constitutional rights guaranteed to all citizens alike. It said the government must protect protesters and enable them to peacefully express their legitimate demands. “The government, represented by all its security forces and services, should deal with peaceful demonstrations and demonstrators in accordance with principles of human rights set forth in international laws and legislation and the Iraqi constitution,” it said in a press statement on Thursday. “It shall ensure protecting protesters’ lives and avoid the use of force in all its forms and methods that degrade the demonstrator’s dignity and endanger his life and security,” the statement added. It also called on the government and security services to “ensure providing freedom of movement and communication for the demonstrators, as well as the necessary protection for places of demonstration, buildings and streets surrounding them.”The Commission noted that freedom of media and press are the pillars of a democratic system, stressing that the government shall enable the free and honest media to play its intended role in covering demonstrations and conveying facts. It also highlighted the need to expedite the trial of those convicted in the incidents that accompanied the demonstrations and led to the killing and injury of protesters and security forces, and ensure fair compensation to the families of the victims. The IHCHR demanded the Supreme Judicial Council to carry out fair investigations into human rights violations committed during the one-week demonstrations that rocked Baghdad and other provinces early October. It advised demonstrating citizens to peacefully exercise this right and not allow undisciplined persons to attack security forces and distort demonstrations from their peaceful and legitimate targets. It also called on security bodies and formations of the ministries of interior, health and justice to enable IHCHR teams responsible for monitoring and following-up demonstrations to perform their mandated tasks.

Amnesty: Turkey Deporting Syrians to Planned ‘Safe Zone’
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019
Turkey is forcibly sending displaced Syrians to an area of Syria near the border where it aims to set up a "safe zone" even though the conflict there has not ended, Amnesty International said in a report published on Friday. Amnesty said refugees it had spoken to complained of being threatened or physically forced by Turkish police to sign documents stating that they were voluntarily returning to Syria. "In reality, Turkey put the lives of Syrian refugees under serious danger by forcing them to return to a war zone," the British-based human rights group said. Amnesty said it believed the number of forced returns in recent months to be in the hundreds, based on interviews it conducted between July and October, but said it was able to confirm 20 cases. Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million refugees who fled Syria's war. But, with Turkish public sentiment towards them souring over time, Ankara hopes to resettle up to two million in the planned safe zone in northeast Syria. Ankara says more than 350,000 Syrian refugees have already voluntarily returned to their country. There was no immediate reaction from Ankara to the Amnesty report but it has previously denied sending any Syrians home against their will. Syrians who are deported are generally told they are not registered or live outside the Turkish province in which they are registered, the report said, adding that people were also deported from provinces in which they had been registered. Anna Shea, Amnesty's Researcher on Refugee and Migrant Rights, said Turkey deserved recognition for hosting so many Syrians over many years, adding: "But it cannot use this generosity as an excuse to flout international and domestic law by deporting people to an active conflict zone."A plan agreed between Turkey and Russia this week envisages Syrian Kurdish YPG fighters being removed from a 30 km strip of territory along the Turkish border and refugees being allowed to return there "in a safe and voluntary manner". Some 300 Russian military police have arrived in Syria to patrol the flashpoint Syrian-Turkish frontier, the defense ministry said on Friday.
The military police, who arrived from the Russian region of Chechnya, will work to ensure the safety of the population and help Kurdish forces withdraw to the 30-km line, Moscow said.

US to Turkey: Don’t turn on Russian system, avoid sanctions
AFP/Friday, 25 October 2019
The United States will spare Turkey from sanctions over its purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia if it does not turn it on, a US official said Friday. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lifted sanctions on Turkey that had been imposed over its assault on US-allied Syrian Kurdish fighters, which created a crisis between the NATO allies. But tensions remain, with Turkey still facing punishment for buying the S-400 missile defense system from Russia despite its membership in the Western alliance. “There are probably cooler heads in Ankara that are saying, for heaven’s sake, don’t turn this on,” a State Department official told reporters on condition of anonymity. The official said it did not appear that Turkey had activated the S-400, which NATO powers fear could help Russia hone its skills in shooting down Western planes and missiles. “There is still work to get the Turks to walk away from the S-400 – be it turn it off, send it back, destroy it, what have you,” the State Department official said. “Ideally they should never have acquired or received any component of the S-400, but now that that line has been crossed, it is a matter of how to isolate, compartmentalize that – neutralize it – and move forward,” he said. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has nonetheless kept building relations with Russia, which agreed to deploy forces in northern Syria to replace US troops pulled out by Trump. Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, has said that he had made the pitch directly to Turkey to avoid sanctions by not activating the S-400. Under a 2017 law, the United States is required to impose sanctions on any country if they make “significant” military transactions with US adversaries including Russia.

Syrian government ‘fears’ constitutional committee: US
AFP/Friday, 25 October 2019
Syria’s government ‘fears’ the UN-backed committee tasked with amending its constitution and is taking steps to derail its work, which formally begins next week, the United States said Friday. The United Nations last month announced the long-awaited formation of the committee to include 150 members, split evenly between Syria’s government, the opposition and Syrian civil society. While the mandate of the body has not been precisely defined – it remains unclear if it will aim to write a new constitution or adjust the existing one – some experts were surprised that President Bashar al-Assad’s government agreed to participate at all. Ahead of the committee’s first meeting, set for Geneva next week, Washington’s special envoy for Syrian engagement James Jeffrey told reporters that the Assad regime is actively trying to thwart the process. “The amount of effort that the Syrian government has put into not having this occur is for us a good indicator that the Syrian government fears that this assembly, and the political momentum that it will represent, is inimical to its desire to achieve a total military victory,” he said. “We are very aware of steps they are trying to take to make this thing as ineffective as possible,” he added. Constitutional review is a central part of the UN-led effort to end the war in Syria, which has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since erupting in 2011 with the repression of anti-government protests. The UN peace effort, governed by Security Council resolution 2254, also calls for UN-supervised elections in Syria.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 25-26/2019
Europe has become the sick man of the world
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 25, 2019
Political risk analysis is an endlessly fascinating process, assessing change that can be either historically dramatic (such as wars and revolutions) or the slowest of phenomena, as countries rise and fall glacially, year on year. Slow decline — much as occurred in the 19th-century Ottoman Empire, which was dubbed the “sick man of Europe” — is perhaps harder to identify, as it can occur at such an imperceptible pace that it takes a world-class political risk analyst to discern it at all. At present, such minute but decisive changes are happening in Europe.
This process has been going on for quite a while now. Twenty years ago, I wrote a series of controversial articles announcing that Europe was in absolute decline; they were met by a mixture of derision and scorn, as it was drily pointed out (and this is still entirely true) that Europe remains a wealthy, culturally wonderful place to live. How could such a paradise be in terminal decay? But a generation on, no one is laughing at this bold political risk assertion.
Why the change in intellectual fashion? Presently, Spain is about to hold its fifth election in five years. The populist Polish government is at permanent loggerheads with the EU. Shaky Italy finds itself one shock away from depression. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s rule is in its twilight as her country slouches toward recession. The UK is headed for the door. Finally, French President Emmanuel Macron has just about survived months of rioting in Paris. As Bob Dylan put it so well, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”
The continent as a whole is becoming strategically and militarily peripheral, as defense spending slips to comically inadequate levels, presently 1.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in lotus-eating Germany. In 2018, only seven of the 29 NATO allies met the minimal 2 percent of GDP target for military spending, including only three greater alliance powers (the US, UK and Poland). The rest of the continent seems to believe that it can take an endless holiday from history.
While the past two decades have seen China rise to great power status and the US maintain its position as the most important economy in the world, Europe has limped toward decline, unable to keep up with the fast pace of globalization. If we set a 2 percent increase in GDP per year as about the rate at which advanced industrial societies must grow in the modern era to be healthy, the story becomes clearer. In 2018, the US grew at a robust 2.9 percent, while Germany and France managed a lackluster 1.5 percent, with Italy limping in at 0.9 percent. Rome staggeringly finds itself with a smaller economy today than it possessed in 2008, before the start of the Great Recession.
The European demographic problem is especially stark. The worsening old age dependency ratio — the relationship between the number of pensioners in a society versus the size of the working-age population — cannot be wished away. The numbers are especially alarming in Germany, the undisputed economic motor of Europe. The old-age dependency ratio was 33 percent in 2018 and is expected to rise to a crippling 52 percent by 2030. Over this period of time, the number of German pensioners will skyrocket by 5 million, even as the number of workers declines by 6 million.
The broad policy responses to Europe’s demographic and economic challenges are as clear as they are unpalatable: Increase taxes (hardly possible), decrease benefits and raise the retirement age (hardly popular), or take in significantly greater numbers of immigrants (given the societal strains exposed in Germany by the recent refugee crisis, hardly likely).
The continent is becoming strategically and militarily peripheral, as defense spending slips to comically inadequate levels.
In the honest but telling wail of Jean-Claude Juncker, then-prime minister of Luxembourg and now outgoing European Commission president: “We all know what needs to be done, we just don’t know how to get re-elected once we’ve done it.” This European elite policy and political failure is what has set the populist cat among the establishment pigeons. Europe also finds itself intractably politically divided: East-west over migration issues and north-south over the endless euro zone crisis.
There is a common process at work here regarding all these military, economic and political problems: An arrogant, out-of-touch European elite — which has failed and is so far gone it barely recognizes this — making little effort at self-criticism, let alone self-renewal and policy reform. The problem isn’t that the illiberal populist barbarians are at the gate; it is that liberal elites are not even bothering to man the walls in its defense.
This is what the ancient Greeks meant by the term decadence — an unwillingness and an inability to recognize one’s own problems, let alone to set about devising answers for mastering them — and it lies at the root of Europe’s slow decline.
Getting the geopolitical trajectories of the major regions in world politics right is the essential first step to first-rate political risk analysis. In our present era, this means seeing Asia as rising, America as flatlining, and Europe as declining. Only then do the political mysteries of our beguiling new age begin to make sense.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Boris Johnson Has His Campaign Slogan Ready
Therese Raphael/Bloomberg//October 25/2019
There was very nearly a bedtime Brexit tale that went something like this: And so, finally, the porridge was just right, Parliament ate up Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and then, satisfied, went to bed. The End.
Of course, lawmakers didn’t eat up and this interminable story isn’t over. Saturday’s parliamentary session instead served up another helping of thin gruel to those British voters who just want the whole thing resolved. Rather than the prime minister getting a vote on his 11th-hour agreement with Brussels, one he may possibly have won, he could only watch as lawmakers passed an amendment giving them more time to scrutinize the deal before passing it.
Johnson might yet win the day; he’s planning another push on Monday to get Parliament to sign off on the principle of his EU agreement. Yet one can hardly begrudge the House of Commons for wanting a closer look at legislation that will inflict such profound and historic changes on the U.K.
At the same time, the delay meant Johnson by law had to write to the EU on Saturday night to ask for a three-month extension to Britain’s Oct. 31 official departure date, a demand that was enforced by Parliament if he couldn’t get its backing by Oct. 19. He didn’t sign the letter and sent a separate one saying an extension would be a mistake. However, most indications are that the EU will almost certainly grant an extension rather than see the U.K. crash out.
There was a danger that if Johnson’s deal had passed on Saturday but the followup legislation was rejected, a no-deal Brexit would have happened by default on Halloween. Taking that unhappy prospect off the table would be a noble and useful thing in itself.
The amendment from the independent, formerly Conservative, lawmaker Oliver Letwin said the Johnson deal could be approved only if the implementing legislation — called the Withdrawal Agreement Bill — passes too. Letwin supports the Johnson deal and wasn’t trying to derail it (even if many of the amendment’s backers were); but given this government’s willingness to gamble with a no-deal exit, and the fact that a number of Conservative MPs would be happy with that outcome, he wasn’t taking any chances.
While implementing legislation usually takes between 10 and 40 days, it might be done more quickly this time if there’s political support. It will also need agreement from the House of Lords, where the government doesn’t control the timetable. Johnson said he would press on with a potential “meaningful vote” on Monday and it’s possible the Withdrawal Agreement Bill could be introduced as early as Tuesday. But it will be up to the House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, who has so often spoiled the government’s attempts to force through Brexit, to rule on what’s permissible.
Saturday’s setback certainly doesn’t kill Johnson’s deal. It had much more support than his predecessor Theresa May’s attempt, and more than the alternative options of a no-deal Brexit, revoking Brexit altogether or a second referendum. It also, crucially, has momentum.
Johnson’s gamble was that enough lawmakers could be shooed onto the bandwagon Saturday before the real forensics began. That this didn’t happen is in large part because his slash-and-burn strategy — where he first threatened a no-deal exit and then offered once unthinkable concessions to Brussels to get a deal over the line — has also undermined trust. The deal conjured success by pulling the rug out from under Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a key Conservative ally.
Whereas Johnson, May and many Tory Brexiters had sworn never to support an arrangement that put a customs border between the U.K. mainland and Northern Ireland, the new deal effectively does that. The DUP are furious about something that ties Northern Ireland closer to the EU and separates it from the rest of the U.K., an affront that was made worse by the party’s failure to secure a veto on the new arrangements.
If Johnson had kept the support of the DUP, the Letwin amendment wouldn’t have passed on Saturday, and he will no doubt be seeking ways to bring Arlene Foster’s party back into the tent.
Meanwhile, the government will surely try to use the legislative process to woo holdout MPs with concessions, although opponents will try to attach amendments, such as a confirmatory referendum to put any agreed deal back to the British public. Johnson’s last-minute breakthrough with Brussels blindsided both the opposition Labour Party, whose own Brexit policy is a shambles, and the centrist Liberal Democrats, which wants to cancel Brexit. They will relish any chance to make sweeping changes as the legislation goes through Parliament.
The EU may decide to offer Johnson a conditional extension to the Oct. 31 date, which would come into force only if he fails to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through Parliament by then. If he can’t manage it, an extension looks inevitable, followed by either a general election or possibly another referendum to try to break the impasse, though the extra time needed to organize the latter would worry Brussels.
Clearly a deal is Johnson’s preferred choice, but if Parliament won’t comply, his election campaign is ready. Anticipated slogan: Get Brexit Done, With My Deal.

France: The Headscarf Debate is Not about Headscarves
Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2019
The headscarf is, of course, just a symptom of a deeper problem: many perceive it as the symbol of an invasion by an outside culture into the public sphere.
This behavior seems to worry many French people, who see it as a direct attack on their culture and identity, and a desire to live separately from the rest of society and according to other values.
Behind those claims, they see the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood or religious ideologies, whose ultimate goal seems to be to propagate these values and impose them on the rest of society.
In the end, however, the commotion created by the growing presence of the Islamic headscarf hides the more fundamental issues of how to deal with the rapidly increasing presence of a foreign culture that seems to keep demanding an ever-larger space in its host society.
The headscarf is a symptom of a deeper problem: many people in France perceive it as the symbol of an invasion by an outside culture into the public sphere. Pictured: Women wearing niqab face-veils outside the French Embassy on April 11, 2011 in London, England, protesting against a law that came into effect that day in France, which bans full-face veils in public areas.
France's Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, has reopened the heated debate on the headscarf.
Since 2004, it is unlawful in France to wear "conspicuously" religious signs or clothing in public schools. The interpretation of the law, as applied by the Ministry of National Education, specifies "the Islamic veil, whatever the name given to it, the [Jewish] kippah or a [Christian] cross of manifestly excessive size" as items that students are prohibited to wear in French state schools.
However, women who are escorting children during school trips are still allowed to wear a hijab. As an increasing number of Muslim women have been doing so, this has disturbed some teachers and parents. They believe that the spirit of the law -- that headscarves should be banned from schools -- is not being respected.
Recently, Blanquer sparked an outcry by saying that "the veil is not desirable" in French society. He added that this was his conception of "women's empowerment" and "the practice of women wearing a hijab during school trips should not be encouraged."
Reacting to another incident, in which an elected official from the Rassemblement National party complained about a woman wearing a headscarf while accompanying children on a visit to the Burgundy Regional Assembly, some well-known actors and academics published an op-ed in Le Monde accusing Blanquer of "stigmatization at the highest level of the state."
Blanquer's statement has created a deep division not only within French society, but also in President Macron's ruling party, La République En Marche ! (LREM). Christian Jacob, the newly elected president of the right-wing Les Républicains party, called for a new law banning anyone from wearing hijabs on school trips.
Members of Parliament from LREM condemned Blanquer's statement; even President Emmanuel Macron's spokesperson, Sibeth Ndiaye, said "she doesn't have any problem with a woman wearing a hijab during school trips".
Many are now calling for Macron to clarify his position on the issue. This is indeed long overdue. On many issues, particularly on sensitive ones such as Islam or immigration, Macron has repeatedly avoided taking a clear stand and prefers to remain ambiguous. He has become famous for repeating "at the same time" ("en même temps") when tackling a serious issue. According to a survey, 70% of the French people are in favor of banning headscarves during school trips, but many members of parliament from Macron's LREM party come from the left (mainly from the Socialist Party) and would not support such a law.
The 2004 law was adopted based on the principle of "secularism" (laïcité), which is enshrined in the Article I of the French Constitution.
The English word "secular" does not quite reflect the meaning of the French word "laïque" which is a kind of enforced neutrality. To many French people, it is a word defining the very nature of what it means to be French today. It is also a word central to the attitude of the French state towards religion. It implies a clear separation not only of religion and State but also between a citizen's private life and his religious beliefs on one hand, and his life in the public sphere on the other. The visible presence of Islam in the streets, schools, shops (halal goods and restaurants) and public life in general is seen by many as an aggression against the French way of life.
Based on this concept of secularism, a law prohibiting the "wearing of signs of outfits with which students conspicuously ["ostensiblement"] manifest religious affiliation" in primary and secondary public schools was adopted in 2004. This included religions other than Islam, particularly Catholicism and Judaism, although the issue that the law was intended to address was exclusively linked to the practice of Islam. But the principle of equality before the law and the non-discrimination laws made the application of the law compulsory for everyone, whether their religious conduct created problems or not.
The hijab is, of course, just a symptom of a deeper problem: many perceive it as the symbol of an invasion by an outside culture into the public sphere. In Europe today, there are more and more requests to build new mosques, and a growing number of women, particularly young ones, who now wear the hijab on the streets, refuse to shake hands with males.
The progressive Islamization of society has also had consequences in schools. Some girls do not attend physical education classes; theories of evolution are criticized during biology classes; and it has even become difficult to teach the history of the Holocaust in schools with a majority of Muslims pupils.
The Islamic distinction between halal (authorized) and haram (prohibited) has become a central question in the daily life of many Muslims in Europe. More and more young people observe Ramadan, fasting during daylight hours for an entire month, which makes difficult for them to concentrate during classes and participating in school gym classes, which are compulsory in schools' curriculum.
This behavior seems to worry many French people, who see it as a direct attack on their culture and identity, and a desire to live separately from the rest of society and according to other values. Behind those claims, they see the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood or religious ideologies whose ultimate goal seems to be to propagate these values and impose them on the rest of society. According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population of France, now about 9%, could increase up to 18% in 2050.
Many believe that if those problems are not addressed now, it soon might be too late. It will create a fait accompli and France will no longer be a single nation, but would become a de facto multicultural state where everyone lives according to his own values, history and culture -- a point of view described in the 2015 novel, Submission by Michel Houellebecq.
In the end, however, the commotion created by the growing presence of the Islamic headscarf hides the more fundamental issues of how to deal with the rapidly increasing presence of a foreign culture that seems to keep demanding an ever-larger space in its host society. That is why many would like to hear President Macron take a stand on these issues. They might have to wait for a long time or, to their despair, keep on hearing "en même temps" as long as he is president.
*Alain Destexhe, honorary Senator in Belgium, former President of the International Crisis Group.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Impeachers Searching for New Crimes
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2019
The search for the perfect impeachable offense against President Trump is reminiscent of overzealous prosecutors who target the defendant first and then search for the crime with which to charge him. Or to paraphrase the former head of the Soviet secret police to Stalin: show me the man and I will find you the crime.
All civil libertarians should be concerned about an Alice in Wonderland process in which the search for an impeachable crime precedes the evidence that such a crime has actually been committed.
Under our constitutional system of separation of powers, Congress may not compel the Executive Branch to cooperate with an impeachment investigation absent court orders.
Conflicts between the Legislative and Executive Branches are resolved by the Judicial Branch, not by the unilateral dictate of a handful of partisan legislators. It is neither a crime nor an impeachable offense for the president to demand that Congress seek court orders to enforce their demands. Claims of executive and other privileges should be resolved by the Judicial Branch, not by calls for impeachment.
The search for the perfect impeachable offense against President Trump is reminiscent of overzealous prosecutors who target the defendant first and then search for the crime with which to charge him. Or to paraphrase the former head of the Soviet secret police to Stalin: show me the man and I will find you the crime.
The effort to find (or create) impeachable offense against President Donald Trump has now moved from the subjects of the Mueller investigation -- collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice -- to alleged recent political "sins": "quid pro quo" with Ukraine and obstruction of Congress.
The goal of the impeach-at-any-cost cadre has always been the same: impeach and remove Trump, regardless of whether or not he did anything warranting removal. The means -- the alleged impeachable offenses -- have changed, as earlier ones have proved meritless. The search for the perfect impeachable offense against Trump is reminiscent of overzealous prosecutors who target the defendant first and then search for the crime with which to charge him. Or to paraphrase the former head of the Soviet secret police to Stalin: show me the man and I will find you the crime.
Although this is not Stalin's Soviet Union, all civil libertarians should be concerned about an Alice in Wonderland process in which the search for an impeachable crime precedes the evidence that such a crime has actually been committed.
Before we get to the current search, a word about what constitutes an impeachable crime under the constitution, whose criteria are limited to treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanors. There is a debate among students of the constitution over the intended meaning of "high crimes and misdemeanors." Some believe that these words encompass non-criminal behavior. Others, I among them, interpret these words more literally, requiring at the least criminal-like behavior, if not the actual violation of a criminal statute.
What is not debatable is that "maladministration" is an impermissible ground for impeachment. Why is that not debatable? Because it was already debated and explicitly rejected by the framers at the constitutional convention. James Madison, the father of our Constitution, opposed such open-ended criteria, lest they make the tenure of the president subject to the political will of Congress. Such criteria would turn our republic into a parliamentary democracy in which the leader -- the prime minister -- is subject to removal by a simple vote of no confidence by a majority of legislators. Instead, the framers demanded the more specific criminal-like criteria ultimately adopted by the convention and the states.
Congress does not have the constitutional authority to change these criteria without amending the Constitution. To paraphrase what many Democratic legislators are now saying: members of Congress are not above the law; they take an oath to apply the Constitution, not to ignore its specific criteria. Congresswoman Maxine Waters placed herself above the law when she said:
"Impeachment is about whatever the Congress says it is. There is no law that dictates impeachment. What the Constitution says is 'high crimes and misdemeanors,' and we define that."
So, the question remains: did President Trump commit impeachable offenses when he spoke on the phone to the president of Ukraine and/or when he directed members of the Executive Branch to refuse to cooperate, absent a court order, with congressional Democrats who are seeking his impeachment?
The answers are plainly no and no. There is a constitutionally significant difference between a political "sin," on the one hand, and a crime or impeachable offenses, on the other.
Even taking the worst-case scenario regarding Ukraine -- a quid pro quo exchange of foreign aid for a political favor -- that might be a political sin, but not a crime or impeachable offense.
Many presidents have used their foreign policy power for political or personal advantage. Most recently, President Barack Obama misused his power in order to take personal revenge against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the last days of his second term, Obama engineered a one-sided UN Security Council resolution declaring that Israel's control over the Western Wall -- Judaism's holiest site -- constitutes a "flagrant violation of international law." Nearly every member of Congress and many in his own administration opposed this unilateral change in our policy, but Obama was determined to take revenge against Netanyahu, whom he despised. Obama committed a political sin by placing his personal pique over our national interest, but he did not commit an impeachable offense.
Nor did President George H. W. Bush commit an impeachable offense when he pardoned Caspar Weinberger and others on the eve of their trials in order to prevent them from pointing the finger at him.
This brings us to President Trump's directive with regard to the impeachment investigation. Under our constitutional system of separation of powers, Congress may not compel the Executive Branch to cooperate with an impeachment investigation absent court orders. Conflicts between the Legislative and Executive Branches are resolved by the Judicial Branch, not by the unilateral dictate of a handful of partisan legislators. It is neither a crime nor an impeachable offense for the president to demand that Congress seek court orders to enforce their demands. Claims of executive and other privileges should be resolved by the Judicial Branch, not by calls for impeachment.
So, the search for the holy grail of a removable offense will continue, but it is unlikely to succeed. Our constitution provides a better way to decide who shall serve as president: it's called an election.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law Emeritus at Harvard Law School and author of The Case Against the Democratic House Impeaching Trump, Skyhorse Publishing, 2019.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Trump's Balfour Moment
Matthew Mainen/The Hill/October 25/2019
Excerpt of article originally published under the title "Trump Needs a 'Balfour Moment'."
President Trump's unforced error by redeploying troops in Syria undermines what otherwise might become an impressive legacy in foreign policy, but it's not game over. The president could bounce back, and shock the world, by following the example set by the late British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour, who on Nov. 2, 1917, altered the course of history in just 67 words. By announcing his government's support for a Jewish homeland, Balfour set in motion a slow process leading to the birth of modern Israel.
President Trump could do the same for the Kurds.
Understandably, support for a Kurdish state would be met with widespread opposition. With the exception of Israel, every country opposes Kurdish independence. But President Trump's policies impacting the Jewish State demonstrate a willingness to resist popular opinion and do what's right in the Middle East.
Balfour paved the way for the birth of a Jewish state. Trump should do the same for the Kurds.
Going against the judgment of European counterparts, the president withdrew from an Iran Deal that breathed life into an Iranian economy squeezed by sanctions and kept Israel in a well-funded Hezbollah's crosshairs. Further, President Trump not only moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, acknowledging the city as Israel's capital, but also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
For the Kurds, the president could make an equally bold move. A short communique affirming the Kurdish right to sovereign self-determination would go a long way.
While such an announcement would break the status quo and cause uproar in the four states largely containing the contiguous Kurdish population, the president could keep things vague and take no position on how the borders should be drawn. After all, Lord Balfour did not provide a map or define borders. Without naming which countries might lose land, the president could contain pushback. He could even one-up Balfour in brevity and make the announcement in 280 characters or less.
Supporting Kurdish statehood could help restore the moral standing the United States has lost.
Supporting Kurdish statehood could both help restore the moral standing the United States lost and protect it when attacked for other foreign policy positions. For example, recognizing the need for a Kurdish state and taking modest exploratory steps would shield the president from future criticism over delayed efforts in working toward a Palestinian State. After all, sovereign self-determination for nearly 30 million Kurds should take precedence over that of, at most, 5 million Palestinians.
There also would be strategic benefits. A "Balfour declaration" for the Kurds would put Turkey on notice that the United States will respond to its hostility. From President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's bodyguards beating up protestors on U.S. soil in 2017 to purchasing military equipment from Russia, Turkey does things unimaginable for other NATO members. The United States must do something unimaginable back. Tyrants such as Erdoğan understand tit-for-tat.
By following the example set by Lord Balfour, President Trump could restore America's position in the Middle East as moral actor, rebuild relations with an important population, and balance an emerging adversary.
*Matthew Mainen is a Washington-resident fellow at the Middle East Forum and graduate of Stanford Law School. Follow him on Twitter.

US-Kurdish alliance dies in game of Russian roulette
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 25, 2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at Russian-Turkish talks in the Black sea resort of Sochi, Russia. (Reuters)
The war in Syria has come down to a game of Russian roulette between Turkey, Iran, Russia, and the US and its Kurdish allies. The losers of the latest round have been Washington and the Kurdish militias trying to carve out a land of their own following the abrupt withdrawal of US troops.
After a six-hour meeting at the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Tuesday, Russia and Turkey agreed a deal on how to jointly patrol areas of Syria that until recently were under the control of the Kurdish militias supported by the US. A 10-point memorandum went into effect at noon on Wednesday.
According to the deal, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will immediately facilitate the withdrawal of Kurdish militias from the Turkish border. Ankara’s first priority is to prevent any terrorist formation along its frontier.
Russian and Turkish forces then will jointly patrol the area now controlled by the Turkish military. This will increase cooperation between the two countries on the ground. Russian military police and border guards from Syria will monitor the border with Turkey. At that point, the two forces will “facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons,” according to the memorandum. Here comes the most crucial part for Ankara: The YPG, or Kurdish militia People’s Protection Units, will have to leave the Turkish-declared security zone in northern Syria.
Few were expecting such an outcome from the Sochi meeting. The foreign ministers’ tone when detailing the memorandum, as well as the leaders’ facial expressions and body language, showed that the two countries — one a NATO ally and the other a nemesis of the US in the region — were carving out a new map for Syria as well as ushering in a new phase in the Syrian conflict.
From both a diplomatic and military perspective, the Sochi agreement is broadly considered a win for Moscow and a partial victory for Ankara.
From both a diplomatic and military perspective, the Sochi agreement is broadly considered a win for Moscow and a partial victory for Ankara — as long as Russia keeps its word.
Needless to say, Ankara today views Moscow as a more reliable partner than Washington — at least when it comes to the war in Syria. The rapid shift of control in Syria’s northern regions is of little concern to Turkey as long as Kurdish militias are given no space in which to grow.
For Moscow, the replacement of US troops that patrolled this area of war-torn Syria for years with Russian forces is a game-changing development. The deal not only cements Russia position as the main power broker in the region, but also increases Ankara’s sphere of influence in Syria following its cooperation with Russia and Iran in the Astana peace process.
Relations between Turkey and Russia are affected by many factors, including geopolitical position, national benefit, leaders’ ideology, regional conditions and the global political structure. All these paved the way for the two leaders’ agreement on Tuesday. Following the announcement of the pact, US President Donald Trump said that he would lift sanctions on Turkey after securing a commitment from Ankara that the cease-fire would become permanent.
History is replete with attempts to end conflicts by mediation. However, the fighting in Syria has proven exceptionally resistant to negotiation. Today, Turkey is just one of several countries reassessing its Syrian policy. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s deal doesn’t mean that the Syrian enigma is solved. On the contrary, it is merely the start of a new phase. Talks over the Syrian constitution due to start on Oct. 30 will reflect the negotiations in Sochi and subsequent steps taken on the ground — the latest moves in a game of Russian roulette.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz