LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 21/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead
Letter of James 02/14-26/:”What good is it, my brothers and sisters, if you say
you have faith but do not have works? Can faith save you? If a brother or sister
is naked and lacks daily food, and one of you says to them, ‘Go in peace; keep
warm and eat your fill’, and yet you do not supply their bodily needs, what is
the good of that? So faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead. But someone
will say, ‘You have faith and I have works.’ Show me your faith without works,
and I by my works will show you my faith. You believe that God is one; you do
well. Even the demons believe and shudder. Do you want to be shown, you
senseless person, that faith without works is barren? Was not our ancestor
Abraham justified by works when he offered his son Isaac on the altar? You see
that faith was active along with his works, and faith was brought to completion
by the works. Thus the scripture was fulfilled that says, ‘Abraham believed God,
and it was reckoned to him as righteousness’, and he was called the friend of
God. You see that a person is justified by works and not by faith alone.
Likewise, was not Rahab the prostitute also justified by works when she welcomed
the messengers and sent them out by another road? For just as the body without
the spirit is dead, so faith without works is also dead.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on October 20-21/2019
No Solutions In Lebanon As Long As it Remains Occupied By Hezbollah
Lebanon Sees Largest Protest Yet as Video of Woman Kicking Minister's Bodyguard
Goes Viral
Lebanon faces political deadlock with economy on brink
Lebanon’s Hariri agrees reform package in bid to resolve crisis: Sources
Hundreds of Thousands Take Over Streets as Lebanon's Protests Grow
Geagea Urges Formation of 'Neutral Technocrat Government'
PSP Says Its Presence in Government is 'Conditional'
Hundreds of Thousands Take Over Streets as Lebanon's Protests Grow
Decades of corruption led Lebanon to the verge of economic collapse: US official
Lebanese protesters issue statement, say halting protests is ‘up to the people’
Geagea Urges Formation of 'Neutral Technocrat Government'
Samir Geagea calls on all parties to resign from Hariri cabinet
PSP Says Its Presence in Government is 'Conditional'
ABL Says Banks to Remain Closed on Monday
Hasbani Says LF's Resignation Final, Not a Maneuver
Lebanese PM Hariri proposes new economic reforms to quell protests
Jumblat Says PSP Takes Own Decisions after LF Quits Govt.
Daily Woes Explode onto Lebanon's Streets
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel Says 'Proud to be Lebanese' after People
'Turned the Tables'
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on October 20-21/2019
Turkish offensive violates international law: German FM
Kurdish Fighters, Wounded Leave Besieged Syria Town
Erdogan says Turkey expects US to keep promises, not stall Syria truce deal
US officials ‘optimistic’ Syria cease-fire holding
US forces withdraw from key base in northern Syria
Top SDF commander says Turkey is not abiding by US-brokered ceasefire
Kurdish-led fighters fully withdraw from Syria’s Ras al-Ain
US to reposition troops throughout region after Syria pullout: Coalition source
Firebrand Cleric Green-Lights Fresh Protests in Iraq
S. Sudan rebel leader seeks further delay to unity government
Sudan names commission to investigate killings at sit-in
Secondary circuit of Iran’s Arak nuclear reactor to be operational soon
US Defense Secretary Esper in Kabul on unannounced visit
EU calls for Afghanistan ceasefire
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on October 20-21/2019
No Solutions In Lebanon As Long As it Remains Occupied By Hezbollah/Elias
Bejjani/October 20/2019
Lebanon Sees Largest Protest Yet as Video of Woman Kicking Minister's Bodyguard
Goes Viral/The Associated Press and Haaretz/October 20/2019
Lebanon faces political deadlock with economy on brink/Lauren Holtmeier/Al
Arabiya English/October 20/ 2019
Analysis/The Human Rights Abuses Behind Erdogan and Trump's Syrian 'Safe
Zones'/Elizabeth Tsurkov/Haretz/October 20/2019
Unanswered questions in the Syrian cease-fire deal/Yasar Yakis/Arabic
News/October 20, 2019
Why Kim’s horse ride shows him firmly in the saddle/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arabic
News/October 20, 2019
Iran finalizes its regional corridor of control/Baria Alamuddin/Arabic
News/October 20, 2019
Gulf states need a seat at Iran talks table/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arabic
News/October 20, 2019
So much for the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel/Cornelia Meyer/Arabic
News/October 20, 2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on October 20-21/2019
No Solutions In Lebanon As Long As it
Remains Occupied By Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/October 20/2019
لا حلول في ظل احتلال وإرهاب حزب الله
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79665/elias-bejjani-no-solutions-in-lebanon-as-long-as-it-remains-occupied-by-hezbollah-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%88%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b8%d9%84-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a5/
Lebanese angry Citizens from all walks of life, from all the country’s
diversified religious denominations, and from all Lebanese geographical areas
are taking place in both the demonstrations and sit-ins.
The peoples’ demands are very basic and all are legitimate.
They want a decent life, in a decent country, that is not occupied by the
terrorist Hezbollah, free, independent, democratic and where the law prevails.
They want the rulers as well as the politicians to be public servants and not
thieves, terrorists, Trojans and dictators.
Hopefully promising patriotic leaders, qualified activists and politicians will
emerge as soon as possible to lead the peaceful protests before the terrorist
Hezbollah and the Trojan rotten political parties’ leader and puppet officials
abort it.
Meanwhile, the Hezbollah Iranian armed militia is the cancer that has been
systematically and evilly devouring Lebanon the land of the Holy Cedars piece by
piece since 1982, and oppressing its people in a bid to subdue them and kill
their lust and love for freedom.
Because of the Hezbollah savage occupation, No solution is currently possible
what so ever in Lebanon for any social or economic crisis in any domain and on
any level for any problem being big or small while the country remains under its
Iranian and terrorist occupation.
Those rotten and Trojan politicians and political parties’ leaders who are
calling for a new government are cowardly and sadly keeping a blind eye on the
Hezbollah devastating occupation which is the actual problem.
Because they are opportunist and mere merchants they are knowingly ignoring the
real and actual problem which is the occupation, and in a shameful Dhimmitude
stance are appeasing and cajoling the criminal occupier for power gains on the
account of the country’s people, stabilty, world wide relations, sovereignty,
independence and freedom.
Lebanon needs to be freed from the Hezbollah Iranian occupation, and at the same
from all its mercenary politicians, officials and political parties’ chiefs.
Liberation of occupied Lebanon urgently requires that the Lebanese free
politicians and leaders call on the UN and on the Free world countries to help
in implementing all the clauses of the two UN resolutions 1559 and 1701.
From our Diaspora, we hail and command the courageous and patriotic Lebanese
citizens who are bravely involved in the current ongoing demonstrations and
sit-ins.
May Almighty God bless, safeguard Lebanon and grant its oppressed people the
power and will to free their country and reclaim it back from Hezbollah, the
Iranian terrorist Occupier.
Lebanon Sees Largest Protest Yet as Video of Woman Kicking
Minister's Bodyguard Goes Viral
تقرير من الأسوشيتد برس والهآرتس يغطي المظاهرات العارمة في لبنان
The Associated Press and Haaretz Oct 20
Protests that have swept the country since Thursday have pulled together all
segments of Lebanese society, including Hezbollah.
Protesters in Lebanon flooded the streets on Sunday, keeping pressure on Prime
Minister Saad al-Hariri as a self-imposed deadline to deliver a package of badly
needed reforms for the country's crumbling economy drew near.
Anti-government protests that have swept the country since Thursday have pulled
together all segments of Lebanese society in an unusually unified call for the
downfall of a political elite that protesters blame for plunging the economy
into crisis.
On Sunday demonstrators clogged streets across the country for a fourth day with
marches resembling outdoor festivals. Loudspeakers blared nationalistic music as
energised protesters chanted calls for the government's fall.
"I didn't expect people from the country's north, south and Beirut to join hands
and like each other. The protests have brought together everyone and this has
never happened before," said Sahar Younis, a 32-year-old worker with a
non-governmental organisation.
Hariri, who is leading a coalition government mired by sectarian and political
rivalries, gave his feuding partners a 72-hour deadline on Friday to agree to
reforms that could ward off economic crisis, hinting he may otherwise resign.
He accused his rivals of obstructing budget measures that could unlock $11
billion in Western donor pledges and help avert economic collapse.
Government sources said Hariri was waiting for his coalition to get on board
with the economic proposals, which include taxes on banks and implementing a
plan within one month to overhaul the country's costly and crumbling state
electricity utility.
Reforming the country's wasteful electricity sector is key for potential
investors and donors who consider it one of the biggest strains on the country's
depleted finances.
Pressure on Hariri has mounted as a rising chorus of voices, from union leaders
to politicians, join popular calls for his government to resign. The Maronite
Christian Lebanese Forces party said late Saturday its four ministers would
withdraw from the government.
If Hariri, a Sunni Muslim who is traditionally backed by the West and Sunni Gulf
Arab allies, resigns it would be harder for the various parties that make up the
ruling coalition to form a new cabinet.
A new cabinet would also likely see Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies more
in control, a shift that would make it nearly impossible for international
donors or Gulf Arab countries at odds with Iran to offer aid or investments.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has thrown his powerful Shi'ite group's
weight behind the current government, saying the country's deep economic crisis
means precious time should not be wasted forming a new one.
Nasrallah said on Saturday that imposing more taxes on people could lead to an
"explosion" of unrest and warned of the risk of bankruptcy and currency
devaluation if the government failed to come up with solutions.
Without a foreign funding boost, Lebanon faces bleak economic prospects.
Officials and economists also predict a currency devaluation or a debt default
within months if it fails to sure up its finances.
Ending rampant corruption is a central demand of the protestors, who say the
country's leaders have used their positions to enrich themselves for decades
through favourable deals and kickbacks.
"All of the leaders should be put under house arrest and be held accountable to
return the money they stole from the state so Lebanon can get back on its feet,"
said Antoine Zahli, 43, a pharmacist who was among the protesters in downtown
Beirut.
Charbel Antoun, a 17-year-old student added: "We want to stay in Lebanon to
build our future but if these corrupt politicians stay here what future will be
left for us?"
The IMF said last week that Lebanon's crisis requires tough austerity measures
such as tax hikes and levies on fuel, steps the country's politicians have
publicly vowed not to take.
The mounting unrest was triggered in part by a proposed fee on WhatsApp calls, a
measure quickly scrapped but that was seen by many as the latest government
attempt to squeeze citizens receiving little in return from the state.
Lebanon's economy registered just 0.3 percent growth last year. The IMF said the
reforms were needed to stem a ballooning deficit and public debt it forecasts to
reach 155 percent of GDP by year-end, one of the world's highest.
Lebanon faces political deadlock with economy on brink
Lauren Holtmeier/Al Arabiya English/October 20/ 2019
What began as an economic crisis in Lebanon has quickly escalated into a
political stalemate as protests entered their fourth day on Sunday, with
thousands of people calling for the country’s government – led by Prime Minister
Saad Hariri – to immediately resign.
Lebanon’s crumbling economy has pushed many of its citizens to the point of
desperation. However, the “ruling elite” are yet to be affected, protesters told
Al Arabiya English. This time around, the protests are unprecedented in the
sense that they are largely apolitical, and all factions of society are
represented among the crowds. On Friday, Shia, Sunni, Druze, and Christian
religious leaders processed through the street hand in hand. Lebanon has a
confessional political system, with MPs elected and government positions
allocated based on religious sect. Currently, the Lebanese government is headed
by Christian President Michel Aoun and Sunni Prime Minister Hariri, the leader
of the Future Movement political party, who took office in 2016.
Since widespread protests broke out on October 17 in the capital Beirut, as well
as across the country in objection to a regressive tax that was introduced on
WhatsApp, the political crisis has showed no signs of easing. The WhatsApp tax,
which would have increased monthly bills by up to $6, was shortly reversed as
crowd sizes swelled across the country.
But, while thousands of grassroots protesters are still in the streets, they are
largely unorganized, united mainly in their calls for the government to resign.
“We don’t care about WhatsApp,” 35 year-old Stephanie told Al Arabiya English on
Sunday, while declining to disclose her last name. She, like thousands of other
protesters in Beirut, is hoping for the resignation of the current government,
and for a new “apolitical and non-sectarian” cabinet to be formed. As she walked
in downtown Beirut to protest with members of her extended family, Stephanie
talked of the financial burdens facing her spouse and children.
“My husband makes $1,200 a month, and we have three small children. We live on
only $500 a month,” Stephanie said, while holding her daughter’s hand. She says
she is a stay at home mom, because if she worked, she would have to pay $300 a
month for child care. Her oldest daughter is in elementary school, and its
annual fees are costing the family $5,000.
Economy on the brink
The 12-month inflation rate in Lebanon averaged 3 percent in the first six
months of 2019, compared to 6.2 percent over the first 6 months in 2018,
according to research by Lebanon-based Bank Audi. On October 18, Prime Minister
Hariri gave the ruling class 72 hours to demonstrate commitment to tangible
reforms to appease protestors. “The Lebanese people have given us many chances
and expected reform and job opportunities,” Hariri said on Friday, but his
seemingly sympathetic tone fell on deaf ears, as the protesters’ calls for the
government to resign intensified. A leaked document seen by Al Arabiya on Sunday
showed some of Hariri’s presumed offerings, which include cutting the salaries
of current and former ministers by 50 percent, enforcing a 25 percent tax on
banks and insurance companies, and setting a salary cap for judges and
government officials.
Meanwhile, Al Arabiya English on Sunday spoke with Sami Zoughaib, a researcher
at the Beirut-based Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS) shortly before the
document was leaked.
When asked what would appease protesters at this stage, he said a resignation
from the current government would lead to people leaving the streets. Deposits
from abroad, remittances, and other investments have slowed in the last year,
and the last two months have witnessed a dollar crunch that has increasingly
crippled the Lebanese economy. While Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central
bank, took steps to ensure the country could import fuel, wheat, and medicine at
the official pegged rate, other goods were left to be determined by the market
rate. Unemployment in the country is also adding pressure, as many families
struggle to make ends meet. Lebanon’s youth unemployment, defined as those under
25, is 37 percent. Overall, unemployment remains high at about 25 percent. Al
Arabiya English spoke to two students present at the Sunday protests who
graduated in 2018, Ahmed with a law degree, and Kemal with an engineering
degree. Neither has found work since earning their degrees. When asked if they
thought they would be able to find jobs, Ahmed said: “If the government is
changed, we will be able to.”
Chronic corruption
The accumulation of various economic factors – including allegations of
corruption and misuse of public funds – have driven people to the streets.
According to an analysis by LCPS, “Firms running hotels and waterfront resorts
are, respectively, 61 percent and 55 percent connected to political elites.”
This is just one indication of the wealth held among the ruling class. The
current government, since its formation in January 2019, has failed to make a
series of necessary reforms needed to attract $11 billion in funds promised
during the 2018 CEDRE investment conference in Paris. “Since we had CEDRE, there
have been 11 months of political deadlock,” said Zoughaib from LCPS. “And we
only saw two episodes of reform that were poorly structured. One being the
electricity plan that wasn’t fully enacted and the budget, but it lacks any
structure or vision,” he added. An updated policy paper introduced by the
Lebanese government in April 2019 set out to reform the country’s electricity
sector – which costs the state between $1.5 to $2 billion a year – so far has
made little progress and has seen delays. The 2019 budget, passed in July, 8
months behind schedule, also introduced a set of austerity measures such as new
taxes on the interest earned on deposits and government-issued treasury bills
and bonds, as well as increased tariffs on some imported products.
Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world with the debt to GDP
ratio currently at 150 percent. New analysis from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) released in October 2019 expects the debt to gross domestic product
(GDP) ratio to reach 155 percent by the end of 2019.
In 2018, the country’s economic growth slowed to around 0.3 percent on high
uncertainty, low confidence, and tight monetary policy. The IMF added that most
economic indicators point toward persistently weak growth in 2019. What comes
next for Lebanon is still unknown. On Saturday, the Christian Lebanese Forces
announced their withdrawal from the government, succumbing to mounting public
pressure calling for the cabinet’s dissolution.With protestors still in the
streets across the country, Zoughaib said it is too early to tell what the
future of the economy holds. There are too many variables – namely what Hariri’s
basket of reforms will offer come Monday, and if the current government survives
– to tell what the future holds.
“They’re putting all the taxes on us and they’re not doing anything for us,”
Stephanie, the mother of three said about the Hariri-led government. “We’ve had
enough.”
Lebanon’s Hariri agrees reform package in bid to resolve
crisis: Sources
Reuters/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri has agreed a package of reforms with
government partners to ease an economic crisis that has sparked nationwide
protests, official sources told Reuters, with a cabinet meeting expected on
Monday to approve them. Hariri, who is leading a coalition government mired by
sectarian and political rivalries, gave his feuding government partners a
72-hour deadline on Friday to agree reforms that could ward off crisis, hinting
he may otherwise resign. The decisions call for a 50 percent reduction in the
salaries of current and former officials and $3.3 billion in contributions from
banks to achieve a “near-zero deficit” for the 2020 budget. It also includes a
plan to privatize its telecommunications sector and an overhaul to its crippled
electricity sector, a crucial demand among potential foreign donors and
investors needed to unlock some $11 billion in funds to Lebanon. The sources
said the budget would not include any additional taxes or fees amid widespread
unrest that were triggered in part by a decision last week to put a levy on
WhatsApp calls. The reforms also called for establishing new regulatory and
transparency bodies within a “short period” of time to oversee reform plans.
Central to protester demands is an end to what they say is rampant corruption
destroying the economy.
Hundreds of Thousands Take Over Streets as Lebanon's
Protests Grow
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 21/2019
Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets for a fourth day Sunday
across Lebanon despite rain in some regions, as key roads around the country
remained blocked, in what has become Lebanon's biggest cross-confessional
protest movement in modern history. The capital Beirut, second city Tripoli in
the north and the southern port of Tyre came to a standstill, with streets
filled with protesters waving the national flag, chanting "revolution" or "the
people demand the fall of the regime" -- a common refrain of demonstrations in
other parts of the Arab world. Protests have grown steadily across the small
country since public anger first spilled onto the streets Thursday evening in
response to a proposed tax on calls via WhatsApp and other messaging services.
While the government quickly dropped the plan, the leaderless protests morphed
into demands for a sweeping overhaul of the political system, with grievances
ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. "I am demonstrating here
to bring down the president's men and his corrupt government," Sanaa Mallah, 40,
said in downtown Beirut. "I have a lot of hope in this movement."Road-blocking
protests meanwhile continued across the country and in areas near the capital
such as Dora, Jisr al-Wati, Sin el-Fil, Nahr el-Mot and Jal el-Dib.
Central demonstrations were also underway in major cities such as Tripoli and
Tyre. In Beirut, protesters on Sunday called out the names of specific
politicians from across the country's sectarian system, with the crowd
responding with swear words.
What some have dubbed the "WhatsApp revolution" has support from wide swathes of
Lebanese society. The protests have been largely good-natured, with people
singing or launching into traditional dabke dances on Saturday, while others
played cards and smoked shisha into the early hours. In Tripoli, Lebanon's
traditionally conservative second city, the protests at points looked like a
music festival overnight Saturday, with a DJ pumping out dance music from
loudspeakers.
On Sunday, Nazih Siraj, 50, said he lost his job after the government removed
stalls from the roads. "I can't afford to rent out a place because of the high
prices and unfair taxes," he told AFP, saying he was demonstrating for the
future of his four daughters. "Its time for a change. There is no going back
from the streets after today." Zalfa Aboukais, 27, was hanging signs bearing the
names of lawmakers and ministers on barbed wire near parliament and the seat of
government, saying they were all "thieves".
Originally from south Lebanon, she said she was protesting "against the
hooligans who have been in power for 30 years." Dani Mourtada said the country
was waking up to reject entrenched sectarian divisions. "We no longer want
people to beg for legitimate rights and services that the state is supposed to
provide," the 26-year-old protester said. The protests have been marked by their
diversity, drawing wide swathes of Lebanese society largely united on what they
oppose -- with many condemning the entire political class as thieves and
criminals.
The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political
system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor
infrastructure.
They have blocked main roads and demanded the resignation of the country's
fragile coalition government, which lost four of its ministers overnight
Saturday with the resignation of the Lebanese Forces from it.
Most Lebanese politicians have uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations
are spontaneous, rather than blaming outside influences. Demonstrators in Beirut
celebrated the news of the coalition party's resignation, calling on other blocs
to leave the government. In Tripoli, they let off fireworks.
"I am thinking maybe it's better all the government resign," said one protester,
24-year-old Ali. "I am thinking maybe it's better to go to another election as
people already woke up". Saturday evening, thousands were packed for a third
straight night into the Riad al-Solh Square in central Beirut, despite security
forces having used tear gas and water cannons to disperse similar crowds a day
before.
The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 US-cent
tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp.
Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite
the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly
swelled into the largest in years.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition until Monday
evening to give back a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's
finances and securing desperately needed economic assistance from donors.
He held a series of meetings Saturday regarding the situation.
Hariri's political rival, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told
protesters Saturday their "message was heard loudly."
But he warned against demanding the resignation of the government -- saying it
could take a long time to form a new one and solve the crisis.
The current unity government has the backing of most Lebanese political parties,
including Hizbullah. More than a quarter of the Lebanese population lives below
the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
Many of the country's senior politicians came to prominence during the country's
15-year civil war, which ended in 1990. The promised austerity moves are
essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by
international donors last year.
Growth has plummeted in recent years, with political deadlock compounded by the
impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands
at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product --
according to the finance ministry.
Geagea Urges Formation of 'Neutral Technocrat Government'
Naharnet/October 21/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Sunday said protesters' ambitions exceed
the reforms proposed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and called for "a new
political life" and a "neutral technocrat cabinet."“For the past three years, we
have done everything and they were accusing us of obstructing their work. We
want the incumbent presidential tenure to be the best presidential tenure in
Lebanon and we wanted Hariri’s government to make achievements,” Geagea said in
an interview with al-Jadeed television, hours after he announced the resignation
of the LF’s four ministers. “It is no longer beneficial to take part in the
government, which can no longer do anything. A new and different government must
be named,” Geagea added, noting that the LF “took part in only two governments”
and that even rivals acknowledge his party’s “integrity.”“We opposed all
decisions that had to do with people’s plight,” he pointed out. He added that
any technocrat cabinet should be “neutral” and independent from “the current
ministerial and parliamentary majority.”“It should harmonious, unlike the
current government which has ‘100 heads,’” Geagea said. Warning that “the coming
will be worse” should there be any delay in taking initiatives, the LF leader
called on Hariri to “seek a new government,” adding that he still expects the
resignation of the Progressive Socialist Party’s ministers. Asked about the
unprecedented protests that have engulfed Lebanon, Geagea said: “The ongoing
protests came from the people and as Lebanese Forces, we must be by their side,
seeing as it’s too late to talk about zero taxes” in Hariri’s proposed reform
paper. He added: “A reform paper cannot come from a non-reformative government.
This government is inefficient and cannot achieve any result.”
PSP Says Its Presence in Government is 'Conditional'
Naharnet/October 21/2019
The Progressive Socialist Party on Sunday announced that its continued
participation in Saad Hariri’s incumbent government is “conditional,” hours
after the Lebanese Forces declared the resignation of its four ministers. “The
reformist paper presented by Prime Minister (Saad) Hariri is advanced, drastic
and truly reformist,” Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour said after meeting
Hariri. “In the name of the PSP, we have added some key points to it, demanding
the abolition of some funds, commissions and ministerial budgets and the
prosecution of those violating seaside and riverside properties,” he added. The
party also called for “shutting down unbeneficial embassies and consulates and
appointing a regulatory commission and a board of directors for Electricite du
Liban during the Cabinet’s next session,” Abu Faour said.“We demanded the
abolition of all benefits going to presidents, MPs, ministers and governmental
employees and officials and suggested a halt to all forms of wasting public
funds and corruption in tenders, as well as the shutting down of all councils
and funds, especially the fund of the internally displaced, the Council for
Reconstruction and Development, the High Relief Committee and the South
Council,” he added. “Our continued presence in the government is conditional on
the implementation of these reforms,” he said.
Hundreds of Thousands Take Over Streets as Lebanon's Protests Grow
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 21/2019
Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets for a fourth day Sunday
across Lebanon despite rain in some regions, as key roads around the country
remained blocked, in what has become Lebanon's biggest cross-confessional
protest movement in modern history. The capital Beirut, second city Tripoli in
the north and the southern port of Tyre came to a standstill, with streets
filled with protesters waving the national flag, chanting "revolution" or "the
people demand the fall of the regime" -- a common refrain of demonstrations in
other parts of the Arab world. Protests have grown steadily across the small
country since public anger first spilled onto the streets Thursday evening in
response to a proposed tax on calls via WhatsApp and other messaging services.
While the government quickly dropped the plan, the leaderless protests morphed
into demands for a sweeping overhaul of the political system, with grievances
ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. "I am demonstrating here
to bring down the president's men and his corrupt government," Sanaa Mallah, 40,
said in downtown Beirut. "I have a lot of hope in this movement."Road-blocking
protests meanwhile continued across the country and in areas near the capital
such as Dora, Jisr al-Wati, Sin el-Fil, Nahr el-Mot and Jal el-Dib.
Central demonstrations were also underway in major cities such as Tripoli and
Tyre. In Beirut, protesters on Sunday called out the names of specific
politicians from across the country's sectarian system, with the crowd
responding with swear words.
What some have dubbed the "WhatsApp revolution" has support from wide swathes of
Lebanese society. The protests have been largely good-natured, with people
singing or launching into traditional dabke dances on Saturday, while others
played cards and smoked shisha into the early hours. In Tripoli, Lebanon's
traditionally conservative second city, the protests at points looked like a
music festival overnight Saturday, with a DJ pumping out dance music from
loudspeakers.
On Sunday, Nazih Siraj, 50, said he lost his job after the government removed
stalls from the roads. "I can't afford to rent out a place because of the high
prices and unfair taxes," he told AFP, saying he was demonstrating for the
future of his four daughters. "Its time for a change. There is no going back
from the streets after today." Zalfa Aboukais, 27, was hanging signs bearing the
names of lawmakers and ministers on barbed wire near parliament and the seat of
government, saying they were all "thieves".
Originally from south Lebanon, she said she was protesting "against the
hooligans who have been in power for 30 years." Dani Mourtada said the country
was waking up to reject entrenched sectarian divisions. "We no longer want
people to beg for legitimate rights and services that the state is supposed to
provide," the 26-year-old protester said. The protests have been marked by their
diversity, drawing wide swathes of Lebanese society largely united on what they
oppose -- with many condemning the entire political class as thieves and
criminals.
The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political
system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor
infrastructure.
They have blocked main roads and demanded the resignation of the country's
fragile coalition government, which lost four of its ministers overnight
Saturday with the resignation of the Lebanese Forces from it.
Most Lebanese politicians have uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations
are spontaneous, rather than blaming outside influences. Demonstrators in Beirut
celebrated the news of the coalition party's resignation, calling on other blocs
to leave the government. In Tripoli, they let off fireworks.
"I am thinking maybe it's better all the government resign," said one protester,
24-year-old Ali. "I am thinking maybe it's better to go to another election as
people already woke up". Saturday evening, thousands were packed for a third
straight night into the Riad al-Solh Square in central Beirut, despite security
forces having used tear gas and water cannons to disperse similar crowds a day
before.
The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 US-cent
tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp.
Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite
the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly
swelled into the largest in years.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition until Monday
evening to give back a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's
finances and securing desperately needed economic assistance from donors.
He held a series of meetings Saturday regarding the situation.
Hariri's political rival, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told
protesters Saturday their "message was heard loudly."
But he warned against demanding the resignation of the government -- saying it
could take a long time to form a new one and solve the crisis.
The current unity government has the backing of most Lebanese political parties,
including Hizbullah. More than a quarter of the Lebanese population lives below
the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
Many of the country's senior politicians came to prominence during the country's
15-year civil war, which ended in 1990. The promised austerity moves are
essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by
international donors last year.
Growth has plummeted in recent years, with political deadlock compounded by the
impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands
at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product --
according to the finance ministry.
Decades of corruption led Lebanon to the verge of economic
collapse: US official
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 21 October 2019
The ongoing protests in Lebanon are a result of decades of corruption and the
government’s inability to prioritize reform, an official at the US State
Department told Al Arabiya. “We support the right of the Lebanese people to
peaceful protest. The people of Lebanon are rightly frustrated with their
government’s inability to prioritize reform. Decades of bad choices and
corruption have led the State to the verge of economic collapse,” the official
said. “We hope these demonstrations will spur Beirut to finally move forward
with true economic reform,” the official added. The official from the State
Department said that the commitment to and implementation of meaningful reforms
“could open up billions of dollars of international support for
Lebanon.”Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri agreed on Sunday a package of
reforms with government partners to ease an economic crisis that has sparked
protests aimed at ousting a ruling elite they see as riddled with corruption.
The anti-government protests, fueled by crippling economic conditions and anger
at perceived government corruption, have fanned out across the country since
Thursday.
Lebanese protesters issue statement, say halting protests
is ‘up to the people’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Lebanese protesters confirmed in a statement on Sunday that the decision of
halting protests across the country is up to the people. “The leak of the reform
document is not enough and we await a clear plan and the government’s
resignation,” added the statement. An earlier statement by the protesters on
Sunday called for snap legislative elections and the cancellation of any
additional taxes or fees in the 2019 budget amid widespread unrest that were
triggered in part by a decision last week to put a levy on WhatsApp calls. The
statement also called on the resignation of current Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s
cabinet and the formation of a mini-technocratic government, stressing the need
for the judicial authorities to act swiftly to recover the looted money by the
ruling elite. Hariri agreed on Sunday a package of reforms with government
partners to ease an economic crisis that has sparked mass protests across the
Mediterranean nation. The agreement was reached as hundreds of thousands of
protesters flooded the streets in the biggest show of dissent against the
establishment in decades. A sea of people, some waving Lebanese flags, crammed
roads for the fourth day, calling for revolution in protests that resembled the
2011 Arab revolts that toppled four presidents. Hariri, who is leading a
coalition government mired by sectarian and political rivalries, gave his
feuding government partners a 72-hour deadline on Friday to agree reforms that
could ward off crisis, hinting he may otherwise resign.
Hariri accused his rivals of obstructing his reform measures that could unlock
$11 billion in Western donor pledges and help avert economic collapse.
- With Reuters
Geagea Urges Formation of 'Neutral Technocrat Government'
Naharnet/October 21/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Sunday said protesters' ambitions exceed
the reforms proposed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and called for "a new
political life" and a "neutral technocrat cabinet."“For the past three years, we
have done everything and they were accusing us of obstructing their work. We
want the incumbent presidential tenure to be the best presidential tenure in
Lebanon and we wanted Hariri’s government to make achievements,” Geagea said in
an interview with al-Jadeed television, hours after he announced the resignation
of the LF’s four ministers. “It is no longer beneficial to take part in the
government, which can no longer do anything. A new and different government must
be named,” Geagea added, noting that the LF “took part in only two governments”
and that even rivals acknowledge his party’s “integrity.”“We opposed all
decisions that had to do with people’s plight,” he pointed out. He added that
any technocrat cabinet should be “neutral” and independent from “the current
ministerial and parliamentary majority.” “It should harmonious, unlike the
current government which has ‘100 heads,’” Geagea said. Warning that “the coming
will be worse” should there be any delay in taking initiatives, the LF leader
called on Hariri to “seek a new government,” adding that he still expects the
resignation of the Progressive Socialist Party’s ministers. Asked about the
unprecedented protests that have engulfed Lebanon, Geagea said: “The ongoing
protests came from the people and as Lebanese Forces, we must be by their side,
seeing as it’s too late to talk about zero taxes” in Hariri’s proposed reform
paper. He added: “A reform paper cannot come from a non-reformative government.
This government is inefficient and cannot achieve any result.”
Samir Geagea calls on all parties to resign from Hariri
cabinet
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 20 October 2019
The head of the Lebanese Forces Party (LF) Samir Geagea said on Sunday that the
Lebanese streets which are flooded with protesters waving the Lebanese flag are
real scenes echoing “a deep crisis that has crumbled the country’s
economy.”Geagea, in an interview with Al Hadath news channel, called upon all
political blocs to resign from Saad Hariri government on Sunday night. A day
earlier, Geagea announced the resignation of the Lebanese Forces Party’s four
ministers from Saad Hariri’s government. Geagea told Al Hadath the national
unity government has become a failure due to the existence of “multiple
opinions” and the inability to implement.”“We cannot tackle all the problems at
once, let’s begin with a technocratic government,” Geagea said. “We demand a
government of competence from successful personalities with clean hands,” the
party leader said adding that “if a government is formed different from its
predecessors, the street (public) will be satisfied immediately.”“The crisis
exceeded all reform proposals due to the mistrust between the people and the
ruling government,” he added. In an earlier interview with local Lebanese TV Al
Jadeed earlier on Sunday, Geagea said: “If we are late, I think what follows is
worse, I call upon President (Saad) Hariri to approach a new cabinet.” He also
added that he expects the resignation of the ministers of the Progressive
Socialist Party’s bloc later in the day. On Saturday, the Progressive Socialist
Party leader Walid Jumblatt denied reports of his request to his party’s
ministers to resign from the Lebanese government. Anti-government protests have
swept Lebanon since Thursday and pulled together all segments of the Lebanese
society in an unusually unified call for the downfall of a political elite that
protesters blame for plunging the economy into crisis.
PSP Says Its Presence in Government is 'Conditional'
Naharnet/October 21/2019
The Progressive Socialist Party on Sunday announced that its continued
participation in Saad Hariri’s incumbent government is “conditional,” hours
after the Lebanese Forces declared the resignation of its four ministers. “The
reformist paper presented by Prime Minister (Saad) Hariri is advanced, drastic
and truly reformist,” Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour said after meeting
Hariri. “In the name of the PSP, we have added some key points to it, demanding
the abolition of some funds, commissions and ministerial budgets and the
prosecution of those violating seaside and riverside properties,” he added. The
party also called for “shutting down unbeneficial embassies and consulates and
appointing a regulatory commission and a board of directors for Electricite du
Liban during the Cabinet’s next session,” Abu Faour said.“We demanded the
abolition of all benefits going to presidents, MPs, ministers and governmental
employees and officials and suggested a halt to all forms of wasting public
funds and corruption in tenders, as well as the shutting down of all councils
and funds, especially the fund of the internally displaced, the Council for
Reconstruction and Development, the High Relief Committee and the South
Council,” he added. “Our continued presence in the government is conditional on
the implementation of these reforms,” he said.
ABL Says Banks to Remain Closed on Monday
Naharnet/October 21/2019
The Association of Banks in Lebanon has announced that banks will remain closed
on Monday, October 21, due to the massive protests that are engulfing the
country. In a statement, the association hoped the general situations will
“stabilize quickly in light of the benignant and strenuous efforts that the
various authorities are exerting to spread serenity and stability and to restore
normalcy in the country.”The banks have been closed since Friday, in the wake of
the unprecedented protests that started on Thursday evening.
Hasbani Says LF's Resignation Final, Not a Maneuver
Naharnet/October 21/2019
The Lebanese Forces’ resignation from Saad Hariri’s government is “final” and
“not a maneuver,” resigned Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan Hasbani said on Sunday.
“Our resignation as an LF party is final and it is not a maneuver,” Hasbani said
in a radio interview. “The resignation comes because there is a need to rescue
the country,” Hasbani added. As for Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s reaction, the
resigned deputy PM said: “I do not want to speculate about PM Saad Hariri’s
decision, but I believe that the resignation will be accepted and it is final
from our end.”After protesters rallied in Beirut, Tripoli and other cities in a
third day of unprecedented massive protests on Saturday, LF leader Samir Geagea
said his party's four ministers were resigning from the government. "We are now
convinced that the government is unable to take the necessary steps to save the
situation," said Geagea. "Therefore, the bloc decided to ask its ministers to
resign from the government," he added.
Lebanese PM Hariri proposes new economic reforms to quell
protests
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday presented an economic plan to
representatives of different political blocs to help ease the unrest that has
led to mass protests across the country calling for the resignation of the
government, according to a document seen by Al Arabiya. The reforms include:
cutting the salaries of current and former ministers by 50 percent; enforcing a
25 percent tax on banks and insurance companies; setting a salary cap for judges
and government officials; and putting an end to all pension cuts for army and
security forces. According to the document, several government councils and
ministries, including the Ministry of Information, will be canceled. The
document comes two days after the Prime Minister said on Friday that his
“partners in the government” had 72 hours to show that they are serious about
reforms, or he will take a different approach. During his first address since
the protests began, Hariri criticized government partners for holding up reforms
and causing the protests. “The Lebanese people have given us many chances and
expected reform and job opportunities,” said Hariri. “We can no longer wait for
our partners in government to start working on the solution,” he said. The
statements could put the future of the current Lebanese government into
question. Hariri currently heads a multi-party government which includes his
Future Party movement and rivals the Iran-backed Hezbollah and the Future
Patriotic Movement. “The country is going through an unprecedented, difficult
time,” added Hariri, who attempted to reassure protesters that reforms do not
necessarily mean taxes. Men, women and children gathered in the Lebanese capital
Beirut Sunday to protest corruption and tax hikes for a fourth day, after the
resignation of a key Christian party rocked the country’s fragile coalition
government.
Demonstrations had flared on Thursday in response to a proposed $0.20-tax on
calls via WhatsApp and other messaging services. While the government quickly
dropped the plans, the protests morphed into demands for a sweeping overhaul of
Lebanon’s political system, with grievances ranging from austerity measures to
poor infrastructure. (With Agencies)
Jumblat Says PSP Takes Own Decisions after LF Quits Govt.
Naharnet/October 21/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat has announced that his
party will decide its next step on its own, after Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea declared the resignation of the LF’s four ministers from Saad Hariri’s
government. “I have not asked the party’s ministers to step down and we are the
ones who decide,” Jumblat tweeted. “I do not intend to travel to any place,” he
added. The PSP has two ministers in the Cabinet. The Lebanese Forces quit
Lebanon's coalition government Saturday as tens of thousands of people took to
the streets for a third day of protests against tax increases and official
corruption. The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's
political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor
infrastructure. They have blocked main roads and threatened to topple the
country's fragile coalition government. Most Lebanese politicians have
uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations are spontaneous, rather than
blaming outside influences. Demonstrators in Beirut and other areas celebrated
the news of the LF's resignation, calling on other blocs to leave the
government. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition
until Monday evening to give back a reform package aimed at shoring up the
government's finances and securing desperately needed economic assistance from
donors.
Daily Woes Explode onto Lebanon's Streets
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 21/2019
Surrounded by chanting protesters, Lebanese mother-of-two Nada Saad cries her
despair over the political leadership's mismanagement of her country."They're
laughing at us," she shouts at a protest in central Beirut. "Wherever we work,
there's no social security. Our children graduate and can't find a job," says
Saad, a 51-year-old who says she ekes out a living as a manicurist. "We want a
metro, we want buses, we want a train," she rails, in a country with little
public transport. Saad is among tens of thousands who protested all over the
country on Saturday, in a third such day of unrest. All around her, men, women
and even children have come to protest near the seat of the government -- many
for the first time, and several to demand a better future for their children.
Families mill around the edges of the crowd, waving national flags -- the
country's green symbol of a cedar tree on a background of red and white stripes.
But closer to the barriers manned by security forces, the chants are louder and
more determined. "Revolution, revolution," intone male and female protesters, a
few wearing a scarf around their faces after security forces fired tear gas the
previous evening. "The people want the fall of the regime," they cry in unison,
echoing a chant popular during the uprisings that swept through the Arab world
in 2011.
'Nothing but debts'
While the protests are fueled by popular anger, so far their goals are somewhat
undefined. No specific demands have been published and most people simply want
to vent their anger at what they feel is a broken system. Lebanon has been
gripped by endless political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by eight
years of civil war in neighboring Syria. In a multi-confessional country where
the same families have been in power for decades, Lebanese from all religious
confessions and walks of life have come together in recent days. They have had
enough of endless electricity cuts, what they say is crippling nepotism, and --
in Beirut -- the looming specter of garbage dumps brimming almost full. They say
they are tired of struggling to make ends meet in an ailing economy, and a lack
of job opportunities that sends many graduates fleeing abroad. Lebanon's public
debt stands at more than $86 billion, according to the finance ministry -- one
of the highest in the world. The World Bank says more than a quarter of the
population lives below the poverty line. In the middle of the crowd, Saad says
she only braved the possibility of closed roads to demonstrate once she was
convinced her fellow Lebanese were united. "We have nothing," she tells AFP,
wearing a black shirt with white spots and aviator sunglasses."Nothing but
debts," says the mother of two boys, the oldest 25 years old and unemployed. Not
far off, Amal Mokdad says she is fed up with paying thousands of dollars a year
on her two sons' private education. "If I don't put them in those schools, they
won't find a job," she says of her boys aged seven and 11. "And even then when
they find one, they'll get a salary of $600," she says, in a country where the
minimum wage is just $450. Beside her, Lamya Berro, 38, is taking part in her
first ever protest surrounded by her three daughters, after being moved by the
plight of young demonstrators in her neighborhood.
"We've seen how much people are suffering," she says.
- 'We can't go on like this' -
"We don't care what the politicians have responded" to the protests, she says, a
day after Prime Minister Saad Hariri gave cabinet members three days to rally
around key reforms. "We've tried them all -- even the previous generations --
and we've decided we can't go on like this," she says. "The people now want to
decide the country's future."As the protests swell in the evening, red flyers
appear among the crowd. "Leave," they read, next to the images of Hariri,
President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Fadi Karam, a
40-year-old who says he works in construction, claims the political elite share
the blame equally. "All the leaders, all the corrupt people in the state, are
responsible," he says. "People are tired. They have no money," he says a day
after dozens were arrested following trash fires and shattered store fronts in
central Beirut. Karem Monzer, a 23-year-old filmmaking graduate still trying to
pay off his debts, says he does not agree with vandalism. "But we can't blame
poor people who are hungry," he says. "And if a people are hungry, they will eat
their leaders."
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel Says 'Proud to be
Lebanese' after People 'Turned the Tables'
Naharnet/October 21/2019
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel has announced that he is “proud to be
Lebanese,” amid the unprecedented protests that are engulfing Lebanon. “Ever
since I started my struggle, I have been told that I should not bet on the
people and that I should join the game,” Gemayel tweeted. “After all these
years, I can answer: no one can stand in the face of the progress of the peoples
and today the Lebanese people from all sects have turned the tables on
subservience and political cronyism,” he added. “How proud I am to be Lebanese!”
Gemayel went on to say. The protesters have taken to the streets despite calls
for calm from politicians and arrests and riots that marred some demos. Many
waved billowing Lebanese flags and insisted the protests should remain peaceful
and non-sectarian. The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of
Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to
poor infrastructure. They have blocked main roads and threatened to topple the
country's fragile coalition government. Most Lebanese politicians have
uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations are spontaneous, rather than
blaming outside influences. Saturday evening, thousands were packed for a third
straight night into the Riyadh al-Solh Square in central Beirut, despite
security forces having used tear gas and water cannons to disperse similar
crowds a day before. And on Sunday, they were flocking to the Riad al-Solh
Square in downtown Beirut from the capital and other areas, as road-blocking
protests continued across Lebanon. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday,
sparked by a proposed 20 US-cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as
WhatsApp. Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and,
despite the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations
quickly swelled into the largest in years. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given
his deeply divided coalition until Monday evening to give back a reform package
aimed at shoring up the government's finances and securing desperately needed
economic assistance from donors.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/2019
Turkish offensive violates international
law: German FM
AFP, Berlin/Monday, 21 October 2019
Turkey’s offensive in northeastern Syria falls foul of international law,
Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Sunday. “We don’t believe that an
attack on Kurdish units or Kurdish militia is legitimate under international
law,” Heiko Maas told Germany broadcaster ZDF. “If there is no basis in
international law for such an invasion, then it can’t be in accordance with
international law,” he said, in his strongest comments yet on the assault.
Ankara launched a cross-border attack against Syria’s Kurds on October 9 after
the United States announced a military pullout from the north of the war-torn
country, to widespread international criticism. A US-brokered ceasefire was
announced late Thursday, giving Kurdish forces until Tuesday evening to withdraw
from a buffer area Ankara wants to create inside Syrian territory along its
southern frontier. On Sunday, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces fully
withdrew from a Turkish-encircled town in northern Syria, in what appeared to be
the start of a wider pullout under the ceasefire deal. “We will do everything we
can to ensure that this ceasefire lasts longer than five days and puts a halt to
the invasion for the time being,” Maas said. Germany, along with a string of
other European countries, has suspended arms exports to Turkey over the
offensive. Turkish-led bombardment and fire since October 9 has killed 114
civilians and displaced at least 300,000 people, according to the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights war monitor. More than 250 SDF fighters - the de
facto army of Kurdish authorities in northeastern Syria - and 190 pro-Ankara
fighters have lost their lives over the same period, it says.
Kurdish Fighters, Wounded Leave Besieged Syria Town
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 21/2019
A convoy carrying wounded and fighters from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces left the Turkish-besieged Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain on Sunday, an
AFP reporter and a war monitor said. The reporter saw at least 50 vehicles
including ambulances leaving the town hospital and flames erupt from the medical
facility shortly after their departure. Dozens of fighters in military attire
left on pickups, passing by checkpoints manned by Ankara-allied Syrian fighters,
the reporter said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor with
sources inside Syria, said the ambulances were transporting wounded civilians
and fighters. Ankara launched a cross-border attack against Syria's Kurds on
October 9 after the United States announced a military pullout from the north of
the war-torn country. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire was announced late Thursday,
giving Kurdish forces until Tuesday evening to withdraw from a long "safe zone"
Ankara wants to create along its southern frontier including Ras al-Ain. There
was no immediate official confirmation of any full SDF withdrawal from the
border town, which is surrounded by Turkish troops and their Syrian proxies. But
a Kurdish source said there was "plan to withdraw" from the border town. Near
the hospital, a pro-Turkey commander said he had received information about a
full withdrawal of SDF fighters and the wounded. "It will happen in several
waves," he said, adding "a large number" of SDF combatants remained inside the
town.
Erdogan says Turkey expects US to keep promises, not stall
Syria truce deal
Reuters, Ankara/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Turkey expects the United States to keep its promises and not use stalling
tactics in a deal between the NATO allies for Ankara to pause its offensive into
northeastern Syria while the Kurdish fighters it is targeting withdraw,
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday. Ankara and Washington agreed on
Thursday to a five-day truce in northeastern Syria to allow the Syrian Kurdish
YPG militia to withdraw from a “safe zone” that Turkey aims to establish.
Erdogan has said the offensive will resume if the withdrawal is not complete
within the five days. Speaking at an event in Istanbul, Erdogan said he had told
the European Union countries and the US delegation with which he struck the deal
that Turkey would resume the operation if the deal faltered. Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Sunday that Turkey and Russia will discuss the
removal of the Syrian Kurdish YPG forces from the northern Syrian towns of
Manbij and Kobani also known as Ain al-Arab, during talks in Sochi next week
US officials ‘optimistic’ Syria cease-fire holding
AFP, Washington/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Top US officials expressed confidence Sunday that a cease-fire in northern Syria
was holding despite skirmishes between Kurdish and Turkish forces. US President
Donald Trump has come under intense criticism, including from fellow
Republicans, for effectively giving Turkey a green light to move against the
Kurds, the staunchest US allies in the fight against ISIS in Syria. In a tweet,
Trump quoted Defense Secretary Mark Esper as saying “the cease-fire is holding
up very nicely,” a view echoed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a Sunday
talk show appearance. “We’re optimistic,” Pompeo said on ABC’s “This
Week.”“There’s relatively little fighting, a little sporadic small-arms fire, a
mortar or two,” he said. Turkey unleashed the offensive against the Kurds
October 9 after Trump cleared the way by ordering US troops out of the area.
Amid mounting international outrage over the offensive, Pompeo and Vice
President Mike Pence rushed to Turkey last week to negotiate a pause in the
fighting. Meanwhile, US troops were seen Sunday leaving a key base in northern
Syria with their equipment, apparently part of a broad US withdrawal ordered by
Trump. “USA soldiers are not in combat or ceasefire zones. We have secured the
Oil. Bringing soldiers home!” Trump said in his tweet. Mark Esperanto, Secretary
of Defense, “The ceasefire is holding up very nicely. There are some minor
skirmishes that have ended quickly. New areas being resettled with the Kurds.”
USA soldiers are not in combat or ceasefire zones. We have secured the Oil.
Bringing soldiers home!
US forces withdraw from key base in northern Syria
AFP, Tal Tamr/Sunday, 20 October 2019
US forces withdrew from a key base in northern Syria Sunday, a monitor said, two
days before the end of a US-brokered truce to stem a Turkish attack on
Kurdish-led forces in the region. An AFP correspondent saw more than 70 US
armored vehicles escorted by helicopters drive past the town of Tal Tamr
carrying military equipment. Some flew the American stars-and-stripes flag as
they made their way eastwards along a highway crossing the town, he said. The
Syrian Observatory for the Human Rights said the convoy was evacuating the
military base of Sarrin. It appeared to be heading to the town of Hassakeh,
further east, said the Britain-based monitor, which relies on sources inside
war-torn Syria for its information. Sarrin “is the largest American military
base in the north of the country,” Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said. It
is situated on the edges of a planned “safe zone” on the Syrian side of the
border that Turkey wants to keep Kurdish-led forces away from its frontier, he
explained. Sunday’s pullout was the fourth such withdrawal of American forces in
a week and left Syria’s northern provinces of Aleppo and Raqa devoid of US
troops, Abdel Rahman said. The Kurds have been a key ally to Washington in the
US-backed fight against ISIS extremists in Syria, but Ankara views them as
“terrorists” linked to Kurdish militants on its own soil. A week ago, the
Pentagon said US President Donald Trump had ordered the withdrawal of up to
1,000 troops from northern Syria as Turkish troops advanced into Syrian
territory. Turkey launched a cross-border incursion into Syria on October 9,
after Trump said he would pull back US Special Forces in the Kurdish-held north.
After the violence killed scores from both sides and displaced hundreds of
thousands from their homes, a US-brokered ceasefire was announced late Thursday.
Turkey has given the Syrian Democratic Forces, the de facto army of the Kurdish
authorities in northeastern Syria, until Tuesday evening to withdraw from a
30-kilometer strip of Syrian land along its southern border.Both sides accuse
each other of violating the truce.
Top SDF commander says Turkey is not abiding by US-brokered
ceasefire
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 20 October 2019
The commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces confirmed the withdrawal
of his troops from the border town of Ras al-Ain but said that Turkey has not
abided by a US-brokered ceasefire. “We withdrew all our troops from Ras al-Ain.
As you know, yesterday we took a number of our wounded comrades out of the city
and today all our troops have withdrawn with the rest of the injured,” General
Mazlum Kobani Abdi said in an interview with Al Arabiya. “In this way, we have
committed to the agreement of the withdrawal of our troops from some of the
areas specified in the deal, while pullout from other areas is still ongoing.
But we want to say that the Turkish state, for its part, has not abided by the
ceasefire agreement and continues to launch attacks,” Abdi added. Ras al-Ain is
one of two towns on the Turkish-Syrian border that have been the main targets of
Turkey's offensive to push back Kurdish fighters and create a more than 30 km
deep "safe zone" inside Syria. During his interview with Al Arabiya, the
commander denied reports of an agreement between the SDF and the Syrian
government. “So far there is no agreement between us and the Syrian regime.
There are meetings between us which are ongoing, and we agreed on a joint plan
to confront the Turkish occupation,” he said.
Kurdish-led fighters fully withdraw from Syria’s Ras al-Ain
AFP, Ras al-Ain/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Kurdish-led forces fully withdrew on Sunday from the Turkish-besieged Syrian
border town of Ras al-Ain, an AFP reporter and a war monitor said. AFP earlier
reported that a convoy carrying wounded and fighters from the Kurdish-led Syrian
Democratic Forces left the Turkish-besieged Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain on
Sunday. The reporter saw at least 50 vehicles including ambulances leaving the
town hospital and flames erupt from the medical facility shortly after their
departure. Dozens of fighters in military attire left on pickups, passing by
checkpoints manned by Ankara-allied Syrian fighters, the reporter said. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor with sources inside Syria,
said the ambulances were transporting wounded civilians and fighters. Ankara
launched a cross-border attack against Syria’s Kurds on October 9 after the
United States announced a military pullout from the north of the war-torn
country. A US-brokered ceasefire was announced late Thursday, giving Kurdish
forces until Tuesday evening to withdraw from a long “safe zone” Ankara wants to
create along its southern frontier including Ras al-Ain. There was no immediate
official confirmation of any full SDF withdrawal from the border town, which is
surrounded by Turkish troops and their Syrian proxies. But a Kurdish source said
there was “plan to withdraw” from the border town. Near the hospital, a
pro-Turkey commander said he had received information about a full withdrawal of
SDF fighters and the wounded. “It will happen in several waves,” he said, adding
“a large number” of SDF combatants remained inside the town.
US to reposition troops throughout region after Syria
pullout: Coalition source
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 20 October 2019
Some American troops will remain at the strategic al-Tanf airbase in the
province of Homs while the rest of US forces begin pulling out of key areas in
northeast Syria, according to coalition sources who spoke to Al Arabiya. The
sources said that the complete withdrawal of US troops from the rest of Syria
will take several days to complete. “Once out of Syria, the forces will
eventually be repositioned throughout the region,” one source said. Ankara and
Washington agreed on Thursday to a five-day truce in northeastern Syria to allow
the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia to withdraw from a "safe zone" that Turkey aims
to establish. Erdogan has said the offensive will resume if the withdrawal is
not complete within the five days. Meanwhile, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces withdrew fully from the Turkish-besieged border town of Ras al-Ain in
northern Syria on Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor
said.
Firebrand Cleric Green-Lights Fresh Protests in Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 21/2019
Influential Iraqi Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr has given his supporters the
green light to resume anti-government protests, after the movement was
interrupted following a deadly crackdown. Protests shook Iraq for six days from
October 1, with young Iraqis denouncing corruption and demanding jobs and
services before calling for the downfall of the government. The protests --
notable for their spontaneity -- were violently suppressed, with official counts
reporting 110 people killed and 6,000 wounded, most of them demonstrators. Calls
have been made on social media for fresh rallies on Friday, the anniversary of
Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi's government taking office. "It's your right to
participate in protests on October 25," Sadr told his followers in a Facebook
post on Saturday evening. Protesters have opposed any appropriation of their
leaderless movement and the firebrand cleric was restrained on Sunday in
comparison to his previous exhortations for "million-man marches." He qualified
his support by adding: "Those who don't want to take part in this revolution can
choose another via the ballot box in internationally supervised elections and
without the current politicians," he said. His statement echoed another he made
during protests at the start of the month, in which he called on the government
-- of which his bloc is a part -- to resign and hold early elections "under U.N.
supervision." In his latest message, Sadr called on his supporters to protest
peacefully. "They expect you to be armed," he said, alluding to authorities
blaming "saboteurs" for infiltrating protests. "But I don't think you will be."
Sadr's influence was on display Saturday during the Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage to
the holy city of Karbala, 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of Baghdad. Thousands
of his supporters heeded his call to dress in white shrouds and chanted,
"Baghdad free, out with the corrupt!" October 25 will also mark the deadline
issued by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, spiritual leader for Iraq's Shiite
majority, for the government to respond to protester demands.
S. Sudan rebel leader seeks further delay to unity government
AFP, Juba/Monday, 21 October 2019
South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar said on Sunday that he wants to further
postpone the formation of a power-sharing government, warning that rushing into
the arrangement would lead to a disaster. Machar, on a rare visit to Juba from
exile in Khartoum for talks with his rival President Salva Kiir, met with a
delegation from the UN Security Council which is visiting the country just three
weeks before the unity government is to be formed on November 12.The formation
of the government has already been delayed once, in May, over crucial issues
such as the formation of a unified army made up of rebel and government forces,
and disagreements over state boundaries. Machar warned that if the security
issues were not addressed, the country would see a repeat of fighting in 2016,
when an earlier peace deal collapsed, forcing him to flee the country on foot
under a hail of gunfire, and worsening the conflict.
“Why do you want to repeat the same mistake?” Machar told the Security Council
delegation, which is pushing for the government to go ahead, as South Sudan is
currently home to the most expensive UN peacekeeping mission in the world. Under
the September 2018 peace deal, fighters from all sides are to be trained and
deployed as an 83,000-strong unified army - a process that has been hampered by
delays and lack of funding. “If we don’t have a national army, police, security,
how do you form the government? This morning president Kiir and I met the
security chiefs and what we have found is that even in three months, we will not
achieve that,” Machar said. “We have critical issues that we have to resolve,
the security arrangement has to be in place. If we are not there by the 12th
when Kiir insists to form the government as he had threatened, don’t blame us.”
Kelly Craft, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said she was disappointed
with Machar’s remarks. “There is an opportunity for the political leaders in
South Sudan to make political compromises and move forward to the next phase of
the peace process in a credible, transparent and accountable manner,” she said.
Other signatories to the peace deal are divided between those who want a further
delay and those who want to push forward with the formation of the government.
Lam Akol Ajawin, the leader of another rebel group, the National Democratic
Movement, said: “Why don’t we give ourselves let’s say two months in order to
resolve the issues of security arrangement and the number of states rather than
form the government that will collapse in two months.”Kiir and Machar are
expected to continue talks on Monday. South Sudan’s war, which broke out two
years after the country achieved independence in 2011 after a falling out
between Kiir and Machar, has left nearly 400,000 dead and displaced nearly four
million people.
Sudan names commission to investigate killings at sit-in
Reuters, Khartoum/Monday, 21 October 2019
Sudan’s prime minister named a commission on Sunday to investigate a raid on a
sit-in in June in which security forces killed dozens near the Defense Ministry
in Khartoum, following repeated calls for justice from protest and civilian
groups. The commission will have broad powers to summon witnesses, including
officials, and will be given access to official documents, security reports and
medical records, according to a report by state news agency SUNA. The decision
was issued late on Sunday, a day before a mass rally planned by the Sudanese
Professionals Association (SPA), which spearheaded demonstrations leading to the
overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir in April and continues to call for
justice for protesters who were killed or wounded. The SPA welcomed the
appointment of the commission, calling it “the first brick in the structure of a
fair investigation and the revelation of the perpetrators of the crime.” The
commission will be headed by human rights lawyers Nabil Adib. It will include
senior security officers as well as other lawyers. The sit-in was the
culmination of 16 weeks of protests that led to army officers turning against
al-Bashir and replacing him with a military council.
Protesters stayed in the streets calling for civilian rule, until security
forces moved to clear the sit-in early on June 3. Witnesses said at the time the
security forces were led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. In August,
opposition groups and the military signed a three-year power-sharing deal
leading to the formation of an 11-member sovereign council and the appointment
of a technocratic, transitional government under Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
The commission will be charged with identifying those responsible for breaking
up the sit-in, as well as establishing the number of dead, wounded and missing,
and the financial losses incurred by those affected, SUNA reported.The number of
victims has been disputed. Doctors linked to the opposition said nearly 130
people were killed in the raid and ensuing violence. Officials have acknowledged
87 deaths. The commission is supposed to finish its work in three months, and
can be granted one-month extensions provided it submits progress reports. It can
also request technical assistance from the African Union, which has played a
prominent role in Sudan’s transition.
Secondary circuit of Iran’s Arak nuclear reactor to be
operational soon
Reuters, Geneva/Sunday, 20 October 2019
The secondary circuit of the Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor will be
operational within two weeks, Ali Asghar Zarean, a special assistant to the
chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, was quoted as saying on Sunday by
the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The starting of the secondary circuit will
not violate restrictions placed on Iran’s nuclear program under a landmark 2015
deal with world powers. Last week, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tehran
will continue to reduce its commitments to the deal, removing curbs on its
nuclear program, until European parties to the pact protect Iran’s economy from
US penalties. Iran has the capacity to produce up to 25 tons of heavy water per
year, Zarean said, noting that the Islamic Republic currently produces 20 tons
of heavy water annually, which is exported to other countries. Heavy water can
be employed in reactors to produce plutonium, a fuel used in nuclear warheads.
Despite having nuclear technology, Iran has never pursued building or using
nuclear weapons, which its religion forbids, the country’s highest political
authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said earlier this month. Iran has
responded to US “maximum pressure” by scaling back commitments to the nuclear
deal since May. Britain, France and Germany, all signatories to the pact, have
urged Iran to refrain from any concrete act breaching the agreement.
The reduction of commitments can be reversed, Iranian officials have said, if
the remaining parties to the deal uphold their promises.
US Defense Secretary Esper in Kabul on unannounced visit
AFP, Kabul/Sunday, 20 October 2019
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper arrived in Kabul Sunday on an unannounced visit,
an Afghan official said. Esper’s visit – his first to Afghanistan since being
confirmed as Pentagon chief in July – comes amid deep uncertainty about the fate
of America’s military mission in Afghanistan after talks between Washington and
the Taliban collapsed. According to Fawad Aman, a spokesman for the Afghan
defense ministry, Esper was due to meet with “key leaders and receive an
operational update.”The United States and the Taliban were last month on the
brink of signing a deal that would have seen US forces begin to withdraw from
Afghanistan in return for various insurgent security commitments. But
negotiations collapsed at the last minute when President Donald Trump declared
talks “dead” following a Taliban attack that killed a US soldier. Zalmay
Khalilzad, the US special envoy leading negotiations, has since spoken
informally with Taliban officials in Pakistan, raising the possibility the US is
seeking to resume talks.US Forces-Afghanistan, headquartered in Kabul, did not
immediately return a request for comment on Esper’s visit.
EU calls for Afghanistan ceasefire
AFP, Kabul/Sunday, 20 October 2019
European Union officials called Sunday for a ceasefire in Afghanistan, saying
the breakdown in talks between the US and the Taliban presented an opportunity
to push anew for a truce. US President Donald Trump last month declared talks
with the insurgents “dead,” citing a Taliban attack that killed a US soldier.
Negotiations had been in the final stages for a deal that would have seen the US
pull troops from Afghanistan after 18 years in return for various Taliban
guarantees. But to the dismay of many Afghans and international observers, the
deal included no immediate, comprehensive ceasefire, rather it would supposedly
have paved the way for a reduction in violence and later talks between the
Taliban and the Afghan government. Roland Kobia, the EU ambassador to
Afghanistan, said the talks’ collapse provided a chance to push for a ceasefire
which would, in turn, prove a large enough change in Afghanistan for Trump to
consider resuming negotiations. “It’s the right moment and the right opportunity
to maybe go one step beyond a simple reduction in violence and explore ways in
which a ceasefire...will take place,” Kobia told Kabul journalists. “The idea is
really to see how we can move the ceasefire idea forward instead of leaving it
for later...There is an opportunity here today.”When asked how the EU, which has
only a limited footprint in Afghanistan, could leverage a ceasefire, Kobia
suggested that the Taliban might return to power in “one form or another” within
months so would entertain a truce to help normalize future relations with the
European bloc.“A ceasefire would be a token, a guarantee of goodwill and good
preparation for the normalization of these relationships,” Kobia said. The
Taliban, for its part, has steadfastly ruled out an immediate ceasefire but last
year downed weapons for a three-day truce. Afghanistan is currently in an uneasy
waiting period following the first round of presidential elections on September
28. Results were supposed to be released Saturday but have been indefinitely
delayed due to “technical issues,” the Independent Election Commission said.
Pierre Mayaudon, head of the EU delegation in Afghanistan, said a delay of a few
days to finalize results was legitimate to ensure votes were fairly counted.
“But not many more days that again will go into weeks and will possibly raise
the perception that something is happening,” he told reporters. Violence in
Afghanistan meanwhile continues unabated. On Friday, at least 70 people were
killed when a mosque in Nangarhar province was bombed.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on October 20-21/2019
Analysis/The Human Rights Abuses Behind Erdogan and Trump's
Syrian 'Safe Zones'
Elizabeth Tsurkov/Haretz/October 20/2019
By aligning with toxic regimes, the West has agreed to remain silent about their
abuses — even when they involve potential colonization of Kurdish areas and the
demographic re-engineering of Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the recently announced deal between the
United States and Turkey concerning the Turkish invasion into northeastern Syria
as “a great day for civilization.” In reality, the agreement officially approves
Turkish control over Syrian land and subjugation of the inhabitants of the newly
captured areas to the rule of undisciplined, Turkish-backed factions implicated
in field executions and systematic looting.
The vague wording of Thursday’s deal, supposedly entailing a five-day pause in
fighting, can potentially allow Turkey to renew its offensive and attempt to
take over all Kurdish-majority areas in Syria. Ankara intends to deport Syrian
refugees living in Turkey into this newly conquered, unstable area, which both
Turkey and the Trump administration call a “safe zone.”
The minor repercussions Turkey has faced as a result of its invasion two weeks
ago is further testament to the devastation of human rights norms during, and as
a result of, the Syrian civil war, aided and abetted by Western governments.
The Turkish invasion followed a speech delivered by Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan at the UN General Assembly last month, marketing his “safe zone”
plan — under which Turkey will take control of the entire border region of
northeastern Syria, creating a strip of land over 440 kilometers (nearly 275
miles) long and 30 kilometers deep. Turkey would then send at least 1 million
refugees residing in Turkey into this area.
This mass movement of people will likely entail coercion, since most Syrians
will not voluntarily return to this unstable region governed by Turkish-backed
factions known for their criminality. The area encompasses all Kurdish
population centers in Syria, while the refugees currently residing in Turkey are
overwhelmingly Arabs.
What made Erdogan feel so confident he can openly declare a plan to colonize
parts of a neighboring country, effect demographic change and send refugees to a
highly unstable area, and then execute his plan?
Following the fateful October 6 phone call between presidents Erdogan and Trump,
the White House gave Turkey the green light to launch its invasion against an
area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The Kurdish-led military alliance has not attacked Turkish territory, but its
main component, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), is linked to the Kurdish
guerrilla group the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an
insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s. Until the Trump phone call, the
United States was allied with the Kurdish-led military alliance to take on the
Islamic State. During the five-year campaign against ISIS, according to the SDF,
the force lost some 11,000 fighters.
Trump’s green light precipitated the offensive, but it would not have been
possible without the normalization of mass atrocities and human rights abuses
throughout the eight-year Syrian civil war.
President Bashar Assad’s regime faced no serious consequences for repeatedly
using chemical weapons, placing entire towns under siege to starve them into
surrender, indiscriminately bombing population centers and exterminating
political prisoners. Russia, with its veto power on the UN Security Council,
blocked all efforts to sanction the regime.
Russia itself has perpetrated war crimes in Syria, including the bombing of
hospitals and markets, and used prohibited weapons such as incendiary and
cluster munitions against population centers.
The current Turkish invasion has displaced over 300,000 civilians, killing and
injuring 86 civilians and dozens of Kurdish militants in the process. The border
towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn have suffered immense destruction. Due to the
ambiguous language of the U.S.-Turkish deal now in place, it is unclear whether
it will prevent Turkey from relaunching its effort to expand eastward, toward
the major Kurdish population centers, displacing more of the area’s residents.
The Turkish invasion is only the latest effort to re-engineer the demographics
of Syria. Ethnic cleansing and mass population transfers constitute war crimes
under international law but have become normalized in Syria. No side engaging in
such activities faced repercussions for doing so, and at times international
actors have been directly involved in these actions.
The current Turkish offensive was foreshadowed by the January 2018 invasion of
Afrin, a Kurdish enclave in northwestern Syria. Turkey was able to carry out
this attack, which it called Operation Olive Branch, without facing significant
international opprobrium. During the operation, as Turkey and Turkish-backed
factions captured Afrin, hundreds of thousands of the area’s original
inhabitants fled and have not been allowed to return. The Turkish-backed
factions have since resettled Arabs displaced from formerly rebel-held areas in
the homes of many original inhabitants.
Activists from an international human rights organization who attempted to
engage European officials about daily abuses happening in Afrin, including
looting, kidnappings and property confiscation, were met with blank stares and
hand-wringing.
All sides in the war forced populations out of their homes or brought new
inhabitants to an area in an effort to achieve military and political goals. The
main culprit of such actions is the Assad regime, which seeks to remove
populations that are suspected of disloyalty from areas under its control. Due
to Syria’s demographic composition and distribution of power, those displaced by
the regime are largely working-class Sunni Muslims, who led the peaceful
uprising and subsequent armed rebellion against the regime. Other actors have
engaged in population displacement in Syria as well, including Syrian rebels,
the People’s Protection Units and ISIS.
Demographic re-engineering is at times carried out by non-Syrian actors as well.
The Shi’ite Lebanese organization Hezbollah now controls the Syria-Lebanon
border area and is preventing the return of Sunnis to their homes in towns such
as Al Qusayr. And Qatar was involved in promoting the “four towns agreement,”
which saw the displacement of inhabitants of Sunni towns besieged by Hezbollah
in exchange for the displacement of inhabitants of Shi’ite towns besieged by the
rebels. As part of the deal, Qatar secured the release of members of its royal
family from an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq.
Western silence regarding Turkish human rights abuses stems from a desire to
maintain cordial relations with Ankara, particularly as the European Union
signed a 2016 deal under which Turkey would prevent Syrian refugees from
reaching Europe in exchange for billions of euros that go toward providing
services to Syrian refugees in Turkey.
Ahead of the ongoing offensive, Erdogan openly threatened that if European
leaders criticized him, he would let the 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in
Turkey flow into Europe. When Turkey began deporting refugees en masse from
Istanbul this summer due to mounting domestic pressure to do so, European
capitals demurred.
The mass refugee waves caused by the Syrian war contributed to the rise of
populist, xenophobic leaders across the globe. In the face of people fleeing
mass atrocities, Europe fortified its borders, inking deals with Turkey and
authoritarian leaders in Libya and Sudan in an effort to curb refugee and
migrant flows to Europe.
Officials in Western capitals seem content with short-term policies aiming to
try to keep a lid on what they see as the chaotic, bloody cauldron that is the
Middle East, unsuccessfully trying to isolate the West from its spillovers.
These temporary fixes mean that Western countries not only avoid taking action
to protect values they claim to uphold, but they also often find themselves
complicit in abuses of oppressive regimes.
The case of foreign ISIS-linked detainees and their families stuck in Iraq and
Syria is particularly telling. About 1,000 foreign fighters, most of them from
Muslim-majority countries, are currently held in prisons runs by the Syrian
Democratic Forces. In addition, over 11,000 non-Iraqi and non-Syrian civilians —
many of them relatives of ISIS members — are held in camps across northeastern
Syria characterized by extremely poor living conditions. At least 9,000 of those
civilians are children under the age of 12, according to humanitarians working
in Al-Hawl camp, which houses most of the foreign nationals captured in
northeastern Syria.
For months, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Trump administration begged and
cajoled the countries of origin of these individuals to repatriate them. All but
a few countries refused. Instead, European capitals have been negotiating with
Baghdad to hand over their nationals for trial in a judicial system known for
its corruption, use of torture, speedy trials and executions. Now, with the
looming takeover of these prisons and camps by the Syrian regime, some countries
seem content to do nothing and let their nationals end up in the bowels of
Assad’s prison system — one the UN accuses of carrying out the mass
“extermination” of detainees and torture of children.
Bureaucrats in Paris, London and Berlin can assure themselves that “our hands
have not shed this blood, nor have our eyes seen it”: They did not carry out
demographic re-engineering, deportations of refugees, torture of detainees or
executions. Yet the West is complicit in these crimes. By partnering with toxic
regimes, it is forced into silence about their abuses.
The impunity offered them encourages greater and more frequent abuses — as can
be seen in the Turkish invasion and planned mass deportations. By subcontracting
its migration control and counterterrorism policies to authoritarian regimes,
the West is blurring the line between what separates democracies from
non-democracies. This subcontracting is not new: Italy made a deal with Libya in
2008 to allow it to deport refugees, and the U.S. government engaged in
rendition of militant suspects to regimes that routinely rely on torture to
elicit information. But the number of people affected by such deals has grown
significantly in recent years.
On paper, not much has changed in the West. Refugees will be welcomed upon
reaching Germany’s or Britain’s gates, and ISIS suspects will face trial in a
proper judicial system if they manage to return to their countries. But Europe’s
local partners are keeping them at bay. Western officials can continue to pride
themselves for having fair counterterrorism laws and welcoming refugee policies,
while the dirty work is carried out by proxies.
Who should be held responsible for the growing irrelevance of human rights
norms? After videos emerged of Turkish-backed Syrian proxies executing prisoners
of war last week, Western governments rightly condemned these abuses and held
Turkey responsible for them. Countries often rely on foreign proxies to give
them plausible deniability.
There is no denying that silence and collusion made the horrors of our time
possible. The Turkish invasion was not inevitable. Thousands of refugees did not
have to drown at sea. Assad could have been deterred from repeatedly gassing his
people. It is still possible to prevent the future horrors set in motion by the
Turkish invasion — the deportations of refugees into the conquered lawless zone;
and the detention, torture and kangaroo courts in Iraq and Syria. There is still
time to act. Will world leaders do something or keep wringing their hands?
*Elizabeth Tsurkov is a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a
Research Fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking. Follow her on Twitter @Elizrael.
Unanswered questions in the Syrian cease-fire deal
Yasar Yakis/Arabic News/October 20, 2019
DUBAI: A paradigm change has taken place in Turkey’s operations in Syria. It
began with a letter sent on Oct. 9 by US President Donald Trump to Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For a communication between two heads of state,
this letter’s style will probably go into the annals of diplomatic
correspondence as unprecedented.
“Let’s work out a good deal,” Trump wrote . “You don’t want to be responsible
for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don’t want to be responsible for
destroying the Turkish economy — and I will. I’ve already given you a little
sample with respect to Pastor Brunson.”
On the day the letter was delivered, Erdogan launched a military operation in
northeast Syria, which attained most of its targets within a week. This quick
success prompted the US to send a delegation to Ankara headed by Vice-President
Mike Pence, and the result was a 13-point agreement providing for a five-day
cease-fire when the Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are
expected to remove their heavy weapons from the area.
In return, Pence said the US would withdraw sanctions against Turkey and impose
no additional ones. The US has given Turkey such promises several times before,
but each time the administration threw the ball into the court of Congress and
washed its hands.
The 13-point agreement, if implemented properly, may solve a major problem in
northeast Syria, but leaves several questions unanswered.
One is the geographical scope of the agreement. James Jeffrey, the special
presidential envoy for the anti-Daesh coalition and a member of the Pence
delegation, said the territory to the east and west of the area now held by
Turkish forces was not covered, thus reducing the area to be evacuated to that
already held by the Turkish army. Turkey, however, insists on extending its
control all along the border from Kobane to the Iraqi border, a distance of
380km.
The second question is what to call the cease-fire. Turkey calls it a “pause” in
the fight, because a cease-fire can be agreed only between two entities of the
same level, and the state will not agree on a cease-fire with a group it views
as terrorists.
There are rumors that, after the US “betrayal,” the SDF could be incorporated
into the Syrian army to fight against the Turkish army; the disputed territory
is, after all, Syrian land, and if Turkey is to honor its commitments to Syria’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity, it will have to be returned.
Third is the definition of a terrorist. The agreement says “counter-terrorism
operations must target only terrorists and their hideouts, shelters,
emplacements, weapons, vehicles and equipment.” The main aim of Turkey’s
military operation is to eliminate the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG),
which it considers terrorists, while the US does not.
Fourth is the withdawal of the Kurds’ heavy weapons. The agreement provides for
this, along with the disablement of YPG fortifications and all other fighting
positions, but it does not explain how it will be achieved.
Turkey says it will resume fighting if the US does not fulfill its guarantee to
have Syrian Kurdish fighters out of the safe zone by Tuesday night. It is
unclear who will make the final determination that this has happened. The SDF
may expect Turkey to seek a pretext to resume the hostilities.
The most important parts missing from the equation are Russia and the Assad
regime. Erdogan will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Tuesday,
the deadline for the withdrawal of the Kurds’ heavy weapons. The two leaders
will probably sort this question out then.
The Assad regime’s position is also important, because it is negotiating a
cooperation agreement with the SDF. There are rumors that, after the US
“betrayal,” the SDF could be incorporated into the Syrian army to fight against
the Turkish army; the disputed territory is, after all, Syrian land, and if
Turkey is to honor its commitments to Syria’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity, it will have to be returned.
No matter the ultimate outcome of this agreement, this paradigm change opens a
window of opportunity. It is up to the participants to make the most of it.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the
ruling AK Party.. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Why Kim’s horse ride shows him firmly in the saddle
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arabic News/October 20, 2019
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s third horse ride up Paektu Mountain, the
highest on the Korean Peninsula, attracted much attention, as well it should.
“Photoshop,” some scoffed. Others teased about the equestrian similarities to
Russian President Vladimir Putin or Turkmenistani President Gurbanguly
Berdymukhammedov. However, mocking other cultures without understanding the
context and the geopolitical implications can lead to policy mistakes.
Peaktu is the holiest of grounds under the North Korean concept of “Juche,” or
self-reliance, the ideology that permeates the entire spectrum of North Korean
society and guides political behavior at all levels. For Kim, and his family’s
place within the concept of Juche, Peaktu is the summit of achievement and
renewal. That is why North Korean media said: “His march on horseback in Paektu
Mountain is a great event of weighty importance in the history of the Korean
revolution.”
There is more history, lore and tradition to the mountain and the white horse.
North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung, Kim’s grandfather, commanded anti-Imperial
Japanese fighters from a base at the foot of Paektu when Japan ruled the Korean
Peninsula from 1910-1945. White horses rode into battle against Imperial Tokyo.
White horses are symbolic of North Korea and are used by the Kim family to show
their prowess. Lore suggests that it was on Paektu Mountain that a double
rainbow filled the sky when Kim Jong Il, Kim’s father, was born.
The symbolism of Kim’s ride rests in geopolitics. First, at home, it was a
symbol of resistance. He visited construction sites in nearby Samjiyon and
complained about US sanctions. “The situation of the country is difficult owing
to the ceaseless sanctions and pressure by hostile forces, and there are many
hardships and trials facing us,” he said. “But our people grew stronger through
the trials and found their own way of development and learned how to always win
in the face of trials.” Resistance against US President Donald Trump over North
Korea’s nuclear and missile programs illustrates Kim’s ability to use powerful
symbolism to send a political message on the future of stalled arms talks.
Resistance against US President Donald Trump over North Korea’s nuclear and
missile programs illustrates Kim’s ability to use powerful symbolism to send a
political message on the future of stalled arms talks.
The second significance relates changes of personnel and policy. On previous
white horse treks up Peaktu the leader made major decisions such as the 2013
execution of his uncle and mentor Jang Song Thaek, torn apart by anti-aircraft
gunfire. Last year, a ride up Peaktu marked the decision to embark on diplomacy
with Seoul and Washington. These rides are occurring more frequently, and their
images resonate. Kim’s leadership rests in this powerful cultural symbol that
determines what comes next.
There is talk of North Korea demonstrating its ability to both project and
protect itself. In early October, Pyongyang launched the Pukguksong-3, a “new
type” pf submarine-launched ballistic missile. The test took place in the waters
off Wonsan on North Korea’s east coast, and the missile landed in Japan’s
exclusive economic zone off Shimane prefecture. If launched on a normal
trajectory, the missile would have a maximum range of about 1,900 kilometers —
enough to hit all of South Korea and Japan’s four main islands from the center
of the Sea of Japan. Kim may be planning some type of symbolic space launch to
make neighbors nervous, especially Japan and South Korea, who are at odds with
each other on a host of cultural-historical issues that are affecting their
defense relationship.
Pyongyang’s space program is closely related to its missile program, and is
making significant progress with the launch of several satellites. When North
Korea talks about space, the context is of peaceful programs and its right to be
a space power. Adding a space launch now to demonstrate its world-class status
would be timely. Such a new dimension in the geopolitical context would change
the tenor and tone of security relations around Northeast Asia and change the
contours of talks between North and South Korea.
Overall, the horse ride is an important marker that illustrates how culture can
drive policy decisions. Such symbols, not just in North Korea but in other
countries too, are significant drivers of policy, and these cultural drivers
matter.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington,
D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the
UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik
Iran finalizes its regional corridor of control
Baria Alamuddin/Arabic News/October 20, 2019
Everything Tehran touches dies. Iranian leaders repeatedly trumpet their
dominance over four Arab capitals: Damascus, Sanaa, Baghdad and Beirut. Yet
civil wars in Yemen and Syria, already hell on earth, have recently increased in
ferocity. Iraq and Lebanon are again gripped by paroxysms of rioting and
violence, as protesters express fury at chronic corruption and Iranian meddling.
Having endured 40 years of the Islamic regime, ordinary Iranians find their
lives perhaps even more unbearable.
Those who warn about creeping Iranian regional dominance are written off as
alarmists. Yet with depressing regularity, predictions prove true. Tehran’s
aspirations to extend its corridor of regional dominance through eastern Syria
had until now been thwarted. However, thanks to Trump’s allowance of the Turkish
invasion and his drawdown of US forces, Quds Force’s Qassim Soleimani can finish
what he started.
An Iranian passageway through Syria would facilitate the arming of Hezbollah and
other proxies and allow Iran to tighten its aggressive encirclement of the Gulf
region, while offering access to Europe via the Mediterranean and making the
Damascus and Beirut regimes wholly subservient to Tehran. Additional smuggling
routes for narcotics, arms and people promise more revenue, while underpinning
the export of insurgency, anarchy and terrorism.
The Kurds have reluctantly invited the Damascus regime back into eastern Syria,
but Assad’s shattered and demoralized military machine scarcely has the manpower
to secure territory in its western heartlands, so it will necessarily rely on
irregular troops to reassert itself further east. Given that Iran-backed
elements already operate under the coat tails of Assad’s forces, creeping
Iranian expansion may be difficult to detect until too late.
According to my trusted Western diplomatic sources, Tehran is exploiting the fog
of war to beef up its proxy presence in the Syrian Golan. Israeli analysts warn
that renewed Iranian expansionism and vaporization of Western commitments leave
Israel dangerously vulnerable, while creating inexorable momentum toward a major
conflict. Increased military support in readiness for this looming confrontation
was among the demands from Netanyahu last Friday when he met a discomforted Mike
Pompeo, who struggled to justify Trump’s unforced blunders.
The latest Syria deal is a farcical face-saver for Trump, with the Turks
dismissing it as a “pause” and skirmishes continuing. It represents further
legitimization of the 30km+ zone-of-control as a permanent de facto appendage of
Turkey. Ideas have circulated among Turkish politicians for compelling resettled
Syrians to use Turkish documentation, with Kurdish citizens entirely excluded.
The world must wake from deep sleep and quickly, because we are not far from the
moment when region-wide Iranian dominance is an uncontestable reality.
Since 2017 Iran has consolidated a bridgehead on the Syria-Iraq border, centered
on Al-Qaim, under the control of Tehran-backed Iraqi paramilitaries. These
forces have conducted operations in eastern Syria and stood ready to make
advances as soon as America withdrew from Syria. Communities in Deir Ezzor have
protested against Iranian encroachment in the form of efforts to buy off local
politicians and recruit young men for paramilitary operations, as well as
propaganda activities.
Iran is unnerved by mass protests in Shiite-majority areas of Iraq. Iranian
paramilitary proxies were deployed to crack down violently on protesters and
terrorize journalists, with many demonstrators murdered by militia snipers.
Intelligence sources have cited an Iranian proposal to deploy 11,000 riot police
to Najaf and Karbala, ostensibly to protect pilgrims but in practice as a
quasi-permanent force to stamp out unrest. Massive Iranian investments and
construction projects in Iraq’s holy cities are additional tactics to perpetuate
its influence.
Amid nationwide Lebanese protests against declining living standards, a stagnant
economy and misgovernance, for the first time there have been outbreaks of anger
in Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah prides itself on the monopoly of its
ideology throughout Shiite communities, so these manifestations of criticism and
popular frustration have been highly discomforting for a movement used to acting
with impunity, through its dominance of various sectors of the economy.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah is reaping propaganda capital from Syrian developments.
“America broke faith with Kurds and abandoned them. Such a fate awaits anyone
who trusts Washington,” thundered Hassan Nasrallah. Some Hezbollah figures
mutter about imposing a new strategic reality, capitalizing on Iranian and
Russian ascendancy and the demise of Western influence. Although Hezbollah has
aggressively sought to repatriate Syrian refugees, displaced Sunnis have been
prevented from returning to Hezbollah’s Syrian strongholds such as Qusair, which
it is carving out as zones of exclusive control.
Many observers portray Turkey as the net winner from this chaos, but all Erdogan
may win from his ill considered incursion into the Syrian quagmire is a bloody
nose. Meanwhile Iran is pursuing its own expansionist program well away from the
media spotlight. By stepping up uranium enrichment and reducing cooperation with
inspectors, the ayatollahs believe Western powers will eventually beg for a new
deal at any price.
Arab nations must capitalize on their unusually united position at the recent
Arab League session to re-engage in Syrian affairs and block Iran. The world
must wake from deep sleep and quickly, because we are not far from the moment
when region-wide Iranian dominance is an uncontestable reality. Just as Obama’s
failure to enforce his chemical weapons “red lines” was a decisive turning point
in the Syria conflict, Trump’s failure to counter Iranian aggression and his
abandonment of the Kurds may later be seen as the point of no return on Iran’s
inexorable path to regional dominance.
When King Abdullah of Jordan in 2004 warned of the extension of a “Shia
crescent” across the region, Western leaders responded dismissively. In any
case, recent explosions of Shiite anger against Iran are a reminder that the
ayatollahs only ever cynically exploited Shiite affiliations for their own ends.
Yet in a revealing hint of the full extent of Iran’s megalomaniacal ambitions,
Tehran’s Iraqi henchman Qais Al-Khazali boasted: “We’ll continue working toward
our project of a Shia full moon — not a Shia crescent as our enemies say!”
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Gulf states need a seat at Iran talks table
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arabic News/October 20, 2019
The philosopher George Santayana once famously said: “Those who cannot remember
the past are condemned to repeat it.” This appears to be the case with the
international community’s interaction with Iran.
The EU is negotiating with the regime in Tehran in order to find a resolution to
the heightened tensions in the region, and to salvage the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program in return
for an easing of sanctions.
However, the European leaders appear to be repeating the same mistakes that
occurred during the negotiations with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s
administration between 2013 and 2015.
To clarify, when the leaders of the UN Security Council’s five permanent member
states sat around the table to hammer out the nuclear agreement, there was a
major shortcoming; not one representative from a Gulf state was present at the
table. It was therefore not entirely unsurprising that the final agreement,
rather than limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions, failed to stabilize regional
security, and resulted in an increased flow of funds to violent Iranian proxies
and greater regional tensions.
Without a doubt, halting Tehran’s ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon is a
priority. Nevertheless, to ignore the national security of the Gulf states, and
Iran’s other malign action as the price of doing business and negotiating with
Tehran has proved to be a total failure in terms of enhancing Middle East
security.
In fact, for world powers to sit at the negotiating table with the Iranian
leaders while disregarding other regional states has had very real and damaging
consequences on Iran’s neighbors.
The US and European nations now have a golden opportunity to seek an agreement
that puts the long-term security interest of the Middle East at its heart.
Listening to the concerns of the Gulf states and regional powers is crucial. For
those living in the major cities of the Gulf, one of the primary concerns is
Tehran’s ability to wage indirect war via its network of well funded proxies,
and the threat posed by its missile program. The attack last month on a Saudi
Aramco facility in Abqaiq has thrown into sharp focus the very real threat that
hangs over the day-to-day functioning of the economies and civilian life of the
Gulf nations. Although it has increased in recent times, this is by no means a
new development; Iran’s neighbors have been living with this constant menace for
years.
Thankfully, it appears the penny has finally dropped for some European leaders.
Speaking on US TV last week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, previously a
staunch advocate of maintaining the deal, said he was “willing to accept that it
had many, many defects” before saying it was time to try for a new, “better
deal.” Furthermore, French President Emmanuel Macron made some comments at the
UN General Assembly suggesting new rounds of negotiations could be in the
offing.
Therefore it seems an acceptance that the JCPOA has had its day has finally
taken hold in Europe. The misguided attempts at special purpose financial
vehicles and rhetoric about keeping the deal alive have fallen by the wayside.
That should have happened over a year ago. Now attention must turn to how new
rounds of negotiations, which has full American buy-in, should look.
The exclusion of other states in the region from the last round of negotiations
was a major flaw which is at the root of why the JCPOA failed to curb expansion
of Iran’s proxy and missile programs. If you have a negotiating team featuring
no Middle East members, then it is hardly surprising when an agreement emerges
that does not take their interests into account.
In addition, for the Gulf states, the fear of missiles, whether from the Houthis
in Yemen or from within Iran itself, will be at the top of their list of
concerns. It would be foolish and willfully ignorant to suggest that Tehran’s
nuclear ambitions are all that should concern us. That was the tone of the JCPOA
negotiations. To create a truly enduring agreement that can bring effective
security and stability to the region, then Iran’s ballistic missile program and
its funding of violent proxies must be at its center. It has been forgotten that
the JCPOA was meant to be part of a series of negotiations that would tackle
these other issues; the failure to do so is why it now lies in ruins.
Tehran’s funding and backing of the region’s most violent extremists has been at
the center of recent tensions and longer-term destabilization. In fact, the
funds freed up by the JCPOA’s easing of sanctions exacerbated this threat. Add
to this their development of increasingly sophisticated drone and missile
technology, and weaponry they have supplied to Yemen’s Houthis with lethal
effect, and a picture emerges of where new negotiations should be focused.
The US and European nations now have a golden opportunity to seek an agreement
that puts the long-term security interest of the Middle East at its heart.
However, it cannot achieve that without hearing the voices of those directly
affect by Iranian aggression. This is the only diplomatic route forward.
* Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman
and president of the International American Council. He serves on the boards of
the Harvard International Review, the Harvard International Relations Council
and the US-Middle East Chamber for Commerce and Business. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
So much for the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel
Cornelia Meyer/Arabic News/October 20, 2019
The last time the UK parliament sat on a Saturday was in 1982 when Argentine
forces invaded the Falklands, and yesterday’s sitting was no less of a watershed
moment in modern British history. As MPs debated the revised Brexit withdrawal
agreement obtained by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, outside in central London a
crowd estimated at up to a million marched to demand a second referendum on the
issue.
Johnson’s stated aim was to obtain a parliamentary majority for his agreement
(unlike his predecessor Theresa May, who failed three times to do so), and thus
keep his promise to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31. The numbers were
tight, but all week it had looked increasingly likely that he would do so. Then
came a spanner in the works, wielded by Sir Oliver Letwin, a Conservative Party
grandee and former cabinet minister.
Sir Oliver supports the agreement, but fears that the complex legislation
required to enact it may not be passed before Oct. 31 — resulting in an
“accidental” no-deal Brexit. To avoid this, he successfully proposed an
amendment requiring Johnson to seek an extension to the Oct. 31 deadline until
the necessary legislation had been approved. Thwarted, Johnson called off the
vote on his agreement, but declared: “I will not negotiate a delay with the EU.”
The UK is in for a rocky two weeks. Since Parliament has failed to approve a
withdrawal agreement by Oct. 19, under the terms of the Benn Act the prime
minister is required to ask the EU for an extension. Should he fail to do so, he
may swiftly find himself before a court of law.
None of this will help the UK to heal the deep wounds Brexit has inflicted. On
the contrary, it will widen and deepen the chasm that divides the country.
Families are split, with husbands and wives, parents, children and siblings on
opposite sides of the debate. Johnson’s deal is far from perfect, but at least
it is a deal, and provides some clarity; sometimes the perfect is the enemy of
the possible.
Brexit will be costly for the UK economy, but less so than prolonged
uncertainty. Billions of dollars’ worth of investment have been withheld,
because business leaders do not know the parameters of the UK’s relationship
with its most important trading partner, the EU. They need certainty about the
future legal and regulatory environment. Once they have that they will deal with
the consequences, but nothing is worse than prolonged inertia.
Brexit has shot an Exocet missile across the bows of the two major parties.
Since the vote in June 2016 their leaders have all too often put party before
country, out of fear that acting in the national interest would drive away
either their pro-Brexit or pro-Remain members.
Brexit has upended more than party and family landscapes, it has put in question
the integrity of the UK itself: Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is
ready to propose another referendum on independence.
The UK’s standing in the international community has also been damaged. The EU’s
chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has in good faith negotiated several
iterations of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration, EU leaders
have granted two extensions to the departure deadline, and yet the UK appears no
closer to leaving the EU than it was three and a half years ago.
Brexit will be costly for the UK economy, but less so than prolonged
uncertainty.
Meanwhile Jean-Claude Juncker and the European Commission he leads will step
down on Oct. 31, followed by European Council president Donald Tusk a month
later. The incoming commission president Ursula von der Leyen and her new team
will need to find their feet. Whatever you say about Juncker, he is a skilled
and wily politician, who steered the organization where it needed to go; even
Donald Trump is said to be in awe of his negotiating skills. Von der Leyen is
different; she was not a particularly strong force in her party or her country.
Her six-year tenure as German defense minister received few accolades. In other
words, the new commission may be less able to deal with this latest curve ball
from the UK.
The EU also has many other challenges; a migration/refugee crisis, climate
change, a slowing economy. Brexit has dominated its agenda since 2016. If there
is Brexit fatigue in Britain, it is nothing compared to the weariness among EU
leaders.
We truly are in uncharted territory, which sounds trite because it has been used
so many times before — but there is absolutely no light at the end of the Brexit
tunnel.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources