LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 20/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
If you show partiality, you commit sin and are convicted by the law as transgressors.
Letter of James 02/01-13/:”My brothers and sisters, do you with your acts of favouritism really believe in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ? For if a person with gold rings and in fine clothes comes into your assembly, and if a poor person in dirty clothes also comes in, and if you take notice of the one wearing the fine clothes and say, ‘Have a seat here, please’, while to the one who is poor you say, ‘Stand there’, or, ‘Sit at my feet’, have you not made distinctions among yourselves, and become judges with evil thoughts? Listen, my beloved brothers and sisters. Has not God chosen the poor in the world to be rich in faith and to be heirs of the kingdom that he has promised to those who love him? But you have dishonoured the poor. Is it not the rich who oppress you? Is it not they who drag you into court? Is it not they who blaspheme the excellent name that was invoked over you? You do well if you really fulfil the royal law according to the scripture, ‘You shall love your neighbour as yourself.’ But if you show partiality, you commit sin and are convicted by the law as transgressors. For whoever keeps the whole law but fails in one point has become accountable for all of it. For the one who said, ‘You shall not commit adultery’, also said, ‘You shall not murder.’ Now if you do not commit adultery but if you murder, you have become a transgressor of the law. So speak and so act as those who are to be judged by the law of liberty. For judgement will be without mercy to anyone who has shown no mercy; mercy triumphs over judgement.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 19-20/2019
Geagea Announces LF's Resignation from Government
Nasrallah Lashes Out at Hariri, Says He's against Government Resignation
Popular protests target Lebanon’s political system for the first time. Is it a revolution?
Thousands of demonstrators fill Lebanon’s streets in third day of fiery protests
Lebanese cabinet to convene to discuss way out of crisis
Tens of Thousands Protest in Lebanon for Third Day
Beirut burns as Lebanon protests new taxes
Lebanon Army Cracks Down on Protests as Government Bickers
Report: Hizbullah Dispatched Envoy Discouraging Hariri from Resigning
Gulf Gov'ts Warn Travelers over Lebanon Protests
Gunmen Break Up Protests against Berri in Tyre
Saudi Arabia Begins Evacuation of Nationals from Lebanon
Arrests, Injuries as Army Troops Disperse Riad al-Solh Protest by Force
Tens of thousands gather across Lebanon for third day of protests
Saudi Arabia successfully evacuates its citizens from Lebanon
Lebanon 'Kick Queen' Hits Government Where It Hurts
KSRelief Distributes Food Aid in Northern Lebanon, Treats Injured in Yemen
Lebanon Army Cracks Down on Protests as Government Bickers

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 19-20/2019
Turkey, Kurds Exchange Accusations on Syria Ceasefire Violation
Turkey Denies Blocking Retreat of Kurdish Forces in Syria
Erdogan to discuss Syrian deployment in ‘safe zone’ with Putin next week
Turkish troops ready to continue offensive if truce not implemented: Minister
Trump's Syria Withdrawal Is 'Strategic Nightmare'- McConnell
Egypt Unveils Details of 30 Ancient Coffins Found in Luxor
Russian officials discuss with Assad de-escalating tensions in northeast Syria
Germany: Intelligence Chief Calls for Vigilance, Fearing ISIS Return
Russia doesn’t rule out new contract to supply air defense systems to Turkey

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 19-20/2019
Lebanon Is Occupied by Iran/Elias Bejjani/October 19/2019
AMCD Stands with Lebanese Protestors/Protests erupts in Lebanon, October 2019
I am disgusted by those hooligans/Roger Bejjani/October 19/2019
The Lebanese youth and people should stop repeating stupid cliches relating to corruption./Roger Bejjani/October 19/2019
Popular protests target Lebanon’s political system for the first time. Is it a revolution?/DebkaFile/October 19/2019
Beirut burns as Lebanon protests new taxes/Al-Monitor/October 19/2019
U.S. Sanctions Spur Dramatic Decline of European Imports from Iran/Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/October 19/2019
Trump’s first mistake in Syria was ever trusting Erdogan at all/David Adesnik/Aykan Erdemir/The Washington Post/October 19/2019
A New Way to Measure Human Progress/Ajay Chhibber/Bloomberg/October, 19/2019
The IRGC want to be the real power-brokers in Iran/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 19/2019
Debunking the myths over US withdrawal from Syria/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arabic News/October 19/2019
Iran’s ‘useful idiots’ turn on the West/Peter Welby/Arabic News/October 19/2019
Why a new US-China ‘Cold War’ is far from inevitable/Andrew Hammond/Arabic News/October 19/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 19-20/2019
Lebanon Is Occupied by Iran
Elias Bejjani/October 19/2019
A real public genuine revolution is unfolding in our beloved Lebanon. Hopefully patriotic leaders will emerge to lead before Hezbollah and owners of the rotten political parties abort it.

AMCD Stands with Lebanese Protestors
Protests erupts in Lebanon, October 2019
التحالف الاميركي شرق اوسطي للديموقراطية يدعم الشعب اللبناني بتحركاته في الشارع ويطالب بتنفيذ القرار ١٥٥٩ كبداء للحل السيادي والاقتصادي للبنان.
WASHINGTON, DC, USA, October 19, 2019 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy stands by the demonstrators all over Lebanon in their just demands for an accountable government free from corruption that serves its citizens, not corrupted politicians and terror groups that enrich themselves at the expense of the people. Now is finally time to implement FULLY UNSCR 1559 and 1701. A nation that cannot control its borders and fully control the use of armed forces is, by definition, a failed state. It is high time to regain Lebanese sovereignty, restore prosperity and hold those who have stolen and looted accountable.
May God bless the Lebanese and restore Lebanon to the family of peaceful and prosperous nations.
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy

I am disgusted by those hooligans
Roger Bejjani/October 19/2019
In 2007 the MorAouns, Hezbollah etc...have killed the downtown area and caused closures, bankruptcies and unemployment. Today different kind of morons, although a minority amongst the demonstrators, are doing their best to kill the rest of the resisting business and causing more unemployment. Demonstrations need leadership and hooliganism need to be kept in check. In 2005 1.5 million Lebanese in the streets and 0 damage or violence. I am disgusted by those hooligans who are causing more poverty while others are demanding end of poverty. The Charbel Nahas people are following the instructions of their hateful and angry guru who wants to be the Chavez of Lebanon. The same Nahas who made his money after working more than 20 years in banks.

The Lebanese youth and people should stop repeating stupid cliches relating to corruption.
Roger Bejjani/October 19/2019
If it is true that corruption exists in Lebanon and has existed since before our independence, the magnitude and nature of the corruption is falsely represented and its figures never analyzed and have been grossly inflated by people very weak in maths.
The USD 90 billions debt was built since the mid 90´out of:
1. The accumulation of about USD 2 billion electricity yearly deficit. Rafic Hariri’s plan was to swiftly privatize this deficit sector. Everyone opposed him. Mainly Jumblat. The opposing parties used to benefit from this deficit through the fuel import mafia. Those should be traced back forensically. Hariri failed facing a mafia protected by Ghazi Kanaan and later Rustom Ghazale who both used to take their cut. 2x25 years = 50 billions + interest, we are already at USD 80 billions if not more.
2. The political employment. Thousands of unneeded and unqualified Lebanese were recruited as civil servants in the state administration and public schools. Those are evaluated to 20,000 dead wood costing the treasury over USD 240 million a year. Accumulated over 25years: 240x25= USD 6 billions + interest about 10 billions.
3. Hezbollah is the main thief of public money. Il the Terror group has detoured billions in custom fees and unpaid taxes through its network of illegal customs and protected businesses.
4. The 1996 and 2006 wars with Israel started both by Hezbollah have slowed the economy and costed us USD billions in infrastructure rebuilding.
5. The US treasury sanctions against Lebanese banks serving Hezbollah illegally has slowed down the Banking sector.
6. The hostility of Hezbollah displayed towards the Gulf countries and its implication in the Syrian and Yemeni wars, has created a distance between Lebanon and its traditional friends and investors and high spending tourists.
7. Hezbollah controlling a puppet President and a majority in the legislative and the executive, has brought Lebanon to its knees and to the brink of becoming another rogue nation such as Venezuela, Iran and North Korea.
8. Last but not least the 2007/2008 sit in camp in Solidere that has caused many bankruptcies and hindered s if unemployment.
This is how the debt was accumulated. Not due to construction or Solidere or Siniora you idiots.
The main reasons of our monetary dismay, people’s misery and unemployment of our youth have been alongside the mismanagement of the electricity by successively Amal ministers and MoroAouns, the political unemployment protected mainly by Amal, are Hezbollah activities and its vassals (MorAouns).
So when you protest and demonstrate, learn where directing your arrows you morons.

Geagea Announces LF's Resignation from Government
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 19/2019
The Lebanese Forces quit Lebanon's coalition government Saturday as tens of thousands of people took to the streets for a third day of protests against tax increases and official corruption. After protesters marched in Beirut, Tripoli and other cities across Lebanon, LF leader Samir Geagea said his party's four ministers were resigning from the government. "We are now convinced that the government is unable to take the necessary steps to save the situation," said Geagea. "Therefore, the bloc decided to ask its ministers to resign from the government."The protesters took to the streets despite calls for calm from politicians and dozens of arrests on Friday. Many waved billowing Lebanese flags and insisted the protests should remain peaceful and non-sectarian. The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure.
They have blocked main roads and threatened to topple the country's fragile coalition government. Most Lebanese politicians have uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations are spontaneous, rather than blaming outside influences. Demonstrators in Beirut and other areas celebrated the news of the LF's resignation, calling on other blocs to leave the government. In Tripoli, they let off fireworks. "I am thinking maybe it's better all the government resign," said one protester, 24-year-old Ali. "I am thinking maybe it's better to go to another election as people already woke up."
Saturday evening, thousands were packed for a third straight night into the Riad al-Solh Square in central Beirut, despite security forces having used tear gas and water cannons to disperse similar crowds a day before. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 US-cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp. Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly swelled into the largest in years.Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition until Monday evening to give back a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's finances and securing desperately needed economic assistance from donors. He held a series of meetings Saturday regarding the situation, NNA said. The promised austerity moves are essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by international donors last year. Growth has plummeted in recent years, with political deadlock compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighbouring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product -- according to the finance ministry.

Nasrallah Lashes Out at Hariri, Says He's against Government Resignation
Naharnet/October 19/2019
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday said officials who “relinquish” their responsibilities and decide to resign must be “brought to justice,” adding that he does not support the government's resignation amid nationwide protests calling for politicians to step down over a deepening economic crisis
Nasrallah said that calls for the current national unity government to resign are "a waste of time" since the same political groups will haggle over forming a new one.
He also told demonstrators demanding the term of President Michel Aoun be toppled “you can not topple the presidential term.”
“Those who relinquish their responsibilities and threaten to step down must be brought to justice,” said Nasrallah in a televised speech apparently referring to PM Saad Hariri who addressed the nation Friday as thousands outraged by corruption and proposed tax hikes protested demanding his resignation.
Hariri gave his partners in government a 72-hour ultimatum to come up with "convincing" solutions for a rapidly worsening economic crisis, blaming politicians in his national unity government for blocking his reform agenda at every turn.
“Everyone in the authority and outside the authority must shoulder their responsibility for how things turned out in the country. Some officials are relinquishing their responsibilities and throwing the blame on others and those must be brought to justice,” said Nasrallah.
He added: “You may not rule the country for the last 30 years and turn the blame on others today.”
Urging the Lebanese’ vigilance, he said: “The Lebanese must be responsible enough to counter the economic crisis through vigilance.”
Demonstrators calling for throwing the presidential term of President Michel Aoun, the Hizbullah chief said: “You are wasting your time if you think you can topple the presidential term.”
“Officials must realize the people's inability to tolerate new taxes. Some in power thought that raising taxes can swiftly pass again like before, but the demonstrations relayed a message to officials that they won't tolerate that anymore,” he added.
Nasrallah noted that a number of options are available to counter the economic crisis away from the imposition of new taxes.
He refuted reports circulating about the country’s collapse, “sayings that the country has economically collapsed are totally not true,” he said.
“Everyone mainly the rich must make sacrifices in order to save Lebanon,” he said. Largescale protests that have targeted the country's entire political class have brought Lebanon to a standstill since Thursday.
Nasrallah warned the protesters against being pulled into political rivalries, saying that would derail their message. He said politicians who shirk responsibility, by quitting the Cabinet while the economy crumbles, should be brought to trial.
Lebanon's prime minister gave his partners in government a 72-hour ultimatum to come up with convincing solutions amid the pressures.

Popular protests target Lebanon’s political system for the first time. Is it a revolution?
DebkaFile/October 19/2019
The demonstrations sweeping across Lebanon went into their third day on Saturday, Oct. 18, powered by such slogans as “Revolution!” and “The people want to bring down the regime.” Are the people willing to go all the way this time, as some Arab masses did in the spring of 2011? Will their anger over the unwillingness of their country’s ruling elite to forego a scrap of their wealth and power amid a crumbling economy prevail?
Previous street protests in Lebanon petered out without denting the power structure, like the “Cedar Revolution” of 2005 and the Garbage Revolution of 2018 (when the breakdown of government services left mountains of garbage on the streets up to the present day). The current demonstrations, which have shut down central Beirut, schools, shops, the international airport and the country’s highways, were sparked by new taxes, including a government levy on WhatsApp text messages on cell phone.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri said in a speech to the nation on Friday night that his economic reform program must be approved and put into effect within 72 hours. He did not say what would happen if it was not. This sign of weakness further stoked popular anger.
There is not much Hariri can do in a regime whose top posts are divided on religious-ethnic-tribal lines among his own Sunni Muslim grouping, President Michel Aoun’s Christians and Hassan Nasrallah’s Muslim Shiite Hizballah. Lebanon has gone broke since the Gulf governments suspended trading with Beirut’s banks in a move against Iran’s powerful Lebanese proxy, Hizballah. As a result, half of Lebanese’s population of 6 million is disconnected from the electricity grid and unemployment has topped 30 percent among young people.
This time, popular resentment is not pouring out against a single leader or grouping. but for the first in modern Lebanese history against the entire system, whereby three rival leaders rule the country in a consensus first devised for ending the country’s endemic civil wars. However, neither Aoun, Hariri or Nasrallah are showing any signs of giving up an inch of their power or disbanding their private militias for the sake of creating a new political order in Lebanon.
And so the protesters’ ire, which has turned to violence and vandalism, is being vented against the entire ruling system in Beirut, in an outburst that may be the prologue for a new civil war. So far, the riots and clashes with security forces have not thrown up a leader capable of leading a popular revolution to topple the elites in power. The ruling triumvirate may therefore be counting on the protesters giving up at length and resigning themselves to continuing to dwell amid the piles of garbage – or not.

Thousands of demonstrators fill Lebanon’s streets in third day of fiery protests
AFP, Reuters, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Thousands of demonstrators poured into Lebanon’s streets on Saturday for a third day of anti-government protests, directing growing rage at a political elite they blame for driving the country to the economic brink. In central Beirut, the mood was fiery and festive with protesters of all ages waving flags and chanting for revolution outside upmarket retailers and banks that had their storefronts smashed in by some rogue rioters the night before. From the south to the east and north of Lebanon, protesters marched, blocked roads, burned tires to keep the momentum going despite gunmen loyal to Shia Muslim Amal movement appearing with heavy guns to scare them away. In the afternoon, patriotic songs blared from loudspeakers in Beirut and fireworks exploded over a sea of people dancing and singing, holding banners reading “unite against corrupt politicians.”
“This country is moving towards total collapse. This regime has failed to lead Lebanon and it must be toppled and replaced,” said Mohammad Awada, 32, who is unemployed. Meanwhile, an Al Arabiya correspondent reported that Lebanese protesters issued a statement demanding the formation of a “government of salvation” and calling for early legislative elections. The latest unrest erupted out of anger over the rising cost of living and new tax plans, including a fee on WhatsApp calls, which was quickly retracted after protests - the biggest in decades - broke out.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri gave his government partners a 72-hour deadline on Friday to agree on reforms that could ward off economic crisis, hinting he may otherwise resign. Earlier, troops reopened blocked highways after security forces used tear gas and water cannons to disperse a huge crowd of protesters who had gathered in the heart of Beirut on Friday evening. The Internal Security Forces said 70 arrests were made.
On Saturday, Interior Minister Raya Al-Hassan said in a tweet that she had contacted the Attorney General of the Court of Cassation, who informed her that most of those detained during Friday’s demonstrations will be released with proof of residence, awaiting the completion of investigations to ascertain the availability of material evidence proving their deliberate acts of rioting, shop thefts and burning of public and private properties, according to the Lebanese National News Agency (NNA). The protesters are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon’s political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave his first response on Saturday.
“We don’t want the resignation of the government if the resignation means there is no government,” he said, calling for Lebanese to work together. The current unity government has the backing of most Lebanese political parties, including Hezbollah. Groups of young people gathered on the streets of the capital on Saturday morning collecting tires and other material to make improvised roadblocks, AFP correspondents reported. Parts of central Beirut looked like a war zone, littered with broken glass, overturned litter bins and the remains of burning tyres. Banks and many restaurants and shops remained closed.
A team of workers in grey jumpsuits was dispatched to clean up the debris near parliament, even as around a dozen protesters chanted “Revolution, revolution”. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp.
Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite the government’s swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly swelled into the largest in years. Thousands of people of all ages, sects and political affiliations brought the capital to a standstill on Friday, before security forces dispersed them. Minor clashes continued after dark, pitting groups of young men against security forces, an AFP reporter said. One protester in the southern city of Nabatieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, vowed to continue protesting. “They are trying to portray us as a mob, but we are demanding our rights,” he told a local television channel. “We are used to repression.”Lebanon has one of the highest public debt burdens in the world and the government is trying to reach agreement on a package of belt-tightening measures to cap the deficit in next year’s budget. The promised austerity moves are essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by international donors last year. Growth has plummeted in recent years, with political deadlock compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. Lebanon’s public debt stands at around $86 billion – more than 150 percent of gross domestic product – according to the finance ministry. The International Monetary Fund projected on Thursday that growth would remain weak in the coming months.

Lebanese cabinet to convene to discuss way out of crisis
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Lebanon to hold a cabinet meeting on Sunday to discuss way out to the economic crisis, government sources said on Saturday. Lebanon’s finance minister said on Saturday following a meeting with Prime Minister Saad Hariri that they had agreed on a final budget that did not include any additional taxes or fees in a bid to appease nationwide protests. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun said in a tweet that there would be a “reassuring solution” to the economic crisis. On Saturday, Thousands of demonstrators poured into Lebanon’s streets for a third day of anti-government protests, directing growing rage at a political elite they blame for driving the country to the economic brink. Prime Minister Saad Hariri gave his government partners a 72-hour deadline on Friday to agree on reforms that could ward off economic crisis, hinting he may otherwise resign.

Tens of Thousands Protest in Lebanon for Third Day
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 19/2019
Tens of thousands of Lebanese people took to the streets Saturday for a third day of protests against tax increases and alleged official corruption despite several arrests by security forces. They streamed into the streets around the country's parliament in Beirut, as well as elsewhere across the country, AFP journalists said, despite calls for calm from politicians and dozens of arrests on Friday. The number of protesters grew steadily throughout the day, with major demonstrations in second city Tripoli, in the north, and other locations.
Many waved billowing Lebanese flags and insisted the protests should remain peaceful and non-sectarian. The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. They have crippled main roads and threatened to topple the country's fragile coalition government. Most Lebanese politicians have uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations are spontaneous, rather than blaming outside influence. In Tripoli demonstrator Hoda Sayyur was unimpressed by the contrition some leaders displayed on television and echoed a widely-held hope that the entire political class be replaced. "They took all our fundamental rights... We are dying at hospital gates," the woman in her fifties said. "I will stay in the street... Since I was born, we've been spectators to their quarrels and corruption," she said. The army on Saturday called on protesters to "express themselves peacefully without harming public and private property".
Ultimatum
Saturday evening thousands were again packed into the Riyadh al-Solh Square in central Beirut, despite security forces using tear gas and water cannons to disperse similar crowds a day before. The Internal Security Forces said 70 arrests were made Friday on accusations of theft and arson.But all of those held at the main police barracks were released Saturday, the National News Agency (NNA) said. It said that the father of one man detained tried to set himself on fire in front of a police station. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp. Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly swelled into the largest in years. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition until Monday evening to give their backing to a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's finances and securing the disbursement of desperately needed economic assistance from donors. He held a series of meetings Saturday regarding the situation, NNA said. Hariri's political rival, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, gave his first response on Saturday, telling protesters their "message was heard loudly" and calling for political action.
In a thinly veiled criticism of Hariri, Nasrallah condemned those who had renounced their "responsibilities and were blaming others."But he warned against demanding resignation of the government, saying it could take a long time to form a new one and solve the crisis. The current unity government has the backing of most Lebanese political parties, including Hezbollah.Karim el-Mufti, a Lebanese political scientist, said Hezbollah, which is fighting in neighbouring Syria alongside the government of Bashar al-Assad, wanted to avoid potential chaos at home.
'Protesters beaten'
In the southern port city of Tyre, supporters of Shia politician and speaker of parliament Nabih Berri attacked protesters Saturday, a witness said, a day after demonstrators had accused him of corruption. His Amal political party condemned the attack and called for an investigation. More than a quarter of the Lebanese population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank. Many of the country's senior politicians came to prominence during the country's 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990. A protester in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold, said protesters are demanding their "rights". protesting. "They are trying to portray us as a mob, but we are demanding our rights," he told a local television channel. "We are used to repression."Lebanon has one of the highest public debt burdens in the world and the government is trying to reach agreement on a package of belt-tightening measures to cap the deficit in next year's budget. The promised austerity moves are essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by international donors last year. Growth has plummeted in recent years, with political deadlock compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighbouring Syria.
Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product -- according to the finance ministry.

Beirut burns as Lebanon protests new taxes
Al-Monitor/October 19/2019
BEIRUT — Calls for revolution echoed throughout the night in Beirut Oct. 17, as thousands of protesters descended upon the city’s central district. “Whoever is still at home, come down!” protester Samer Richa told Al-Monitor in front of the Grand Serail, the headquarters of Lebanon’s prime minister, where police and soldiers blocked the protesters’ path. “See what these people are doing, go ahead!” Although the largest protest was in front of the Grand Serail, related demonstrations took place across Beirut, blocking major roads and highways and paralyzing the city. The night’s events were sparked by a tax of up to $6 a month on internet phone calls made via WhatsApp and other applications that had been approved the same day. News that Minister of Telecommunications Mohammed Choucair had revoked the tax did little to sap protesters’ energy.
Mohammad Ziahim, an unemployed civil engineer, told Al-Monitor that the withdrawal of the tax changed nothing for him.
“I hate this,” he said. “I want to do something even if I know that nothing will change.”
Although initially set off by a round of new taxes proposed as part of Lebanon’s 2020 budget, which included the WhatsApp tax, the protests were the result of deep economic and political grievances. So far, protesters appear to have bridged Lebanese sectarian and partisan divides, and are calling for nothing short of the resignation of the entire government, including Prime Minister Saad Hariri, parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri and President Michel Aoun amid the country’s worsening economy. During an address to the nation Oct. 18, Hariri gave himself and other leaders 72 hours to solve the crisis, but he did not resign as other politicians had urged him to. The demonstrations have been marred by violence from multiple sides, with clashes between protesters and police, along with multiple instances of shooting from politicians’ bodyguards that have resulted in injuries in the northern city of Tripoli. Two people were also reportedly killed by fires in Beirut.
Protesters rise up as Lebanon’s leaders grapple with multiple economic crises
As the night of Oct. 17 wore on, protesters set fire to rubble throughout downtown Beirut, tearing down construction sites and street signs, and closing roads by overturning dumpsters. Protests and rioting continued the next day, and police and protesters came to blows much like they did in previous protests Sept. 29. But this time, live ammunition was fired by bodyguards of two politicians — first by Education Minister Akram Chehayeb’s personnel in Beirut on Oct. 17, and then by former parliamentarian Misbah Ahdab’s bodyguards in Tripoli Oct. 18, causing multiple injuries. Ahdab did not respond to Al-Monitor's request for comment, and the Lebanese Armed Forces reportedly arrested the responsible individuals without mentioning any deaths. Security forces used tear gas in the early hours of the morning and in the evening of Oct. 18 to disperse crowds, and although by midnight security forces in Beirut had forcibly cleared the protests, others reportedly continued in Tripoli.
While Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces reported more than 60 injuries among its corps during the first night of protests, the second day of demonstrations saw only 24 injured. The number of protesters injured over the course of the two days remains unclear, but reportedly two foreign workers died as a result of smoke from a fire near the demonstrations.
As in previous protests this month, the primary drivers of public anger were the poor state of the economy, joblessness, a lack of resources, new taxes and austerity measures, along with corruption at the highest levels of Lebanese politics. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s economy may already be going through a recession, with the bank’s end-of-year estimates predicting that Lebanon’s real gross domestic product will shrink by 0.2% by the end of the year. Ali Assir, a protester originally from South Lebanon, held his young son Hadi in his arms and complained about the widespread lack of drinking water, adequate electricity and employment opportunities in Lebanon.
“We’ve had enough of poverty, enough of being tired,” he told Al-Monitor in Beirut. “We can’t live.”
Standing amid burning rubble south of Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square in the early hours of the same morning, Zeinab Darwish, who lives in the city’s Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs, went further.
“The days of the civil war were better,” she said, complaining about the state of health care access in Lebanon and how job opportunities now come exclusively through political cronyism.
A consistent theme of the protests was an apparent lack of sectarian divisions among protesters. Their chants and actions appeared to target all of the traditional leaders of Lebanon’s confessional communities. In Tripoli, known historically as a bastion of the Hariri’s Future Movement, protesters were seen tearing down images of the prime minister and his family. In majority-Shiite Nabatiyeh in South Lebanon, protesters were filmed removing photos of Hezbollah parliamentarian Mohammed Raad and yelling chants calling Berri, the head of the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement, a thief.
Sayyed Hassan Ruda, a Shiite imam present at the protests in Beirut Oct. 18, told Al-Monitor that the protests in the south were not against any party, but against the entire system.
He said that as imam, it was his "religious and human duty" to be here.
A number of politicians, like Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, made speeches related to the protests. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea recommended that Hariri step down. Although rumors circulated that Hariri would indeed resign from his post, as per protesters’ demands, the prime minister instead presented in a speech the difficulties he had faced in facilitating reforms. He gave himself a 72-hour window to address the growing crisis, according to The Daily Star.
Former parliamentarian Mustafa Allouch, who represented Tripoli as part of the Future Movement from 2005 to 2009, told Al-Monitor that he had sent Hariri a message Oct. 18 advising him to be “transparent” on the situation in the country during his speech.
“Giving three days is a good choice,” Allouch said. “Because if not, it’s better for him not to stay in the government.”
He added that he still has confidence in Hariri, but is unsure what Hariri’s next steps will be if a solution is not reached by the end of the 72-hour deadline.
Despite Hariri’s promises, until more concessions are made to stem public anger, demonstrations are likely to grip Beirut and the rest of Lebanon in the near future, possibly even before Hariri's deadline.

Lebanon Army Cracks Down on Protests as Government Bickers
Naharnet/October 19/2019
The Lebanese army moved to end a wave of protests against tax increases and alleged official corruption Saturday as the fragile governing coalition fractured over promised economic reforms. Troops reopened some major highways that had been blocked by protesters after firing tear gas and water cannons to disperse the huge crowd that had gathered into the early hours in Riyadh al-Solh Square in the heart of the capital Beirut. The Internal Security Forces said 70 protesters were arrested. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition partners until Monday evening to give their backing to a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's finances and securing the disbursement of desperately needed economic assistance from donors. Hariri's political rival, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was expected to give his Shiite militant group's response in a speech to be aired later on Saturday.
Groups of young people gathered on the streets of the capital during the morning, preparing for a new day of protests despite the burgeoning crackdown. They collected tyres and other material with which to throw up improvised roadblocks, AFP correspondents reported.
Parts of central Beirut looked like a war zone, littered with broken glass, overturned litter bins and the remains of burning tyres. Banks and many restaurants and shops remained closed. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp. Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly swelled into the largest in years. The protesters are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to alleged corruption to poor infrastructure. Thousands of people of all ages, sects and political affiliations brought the capital to a standstill on Friday, with demonstrations reported across the country. Minor clashes continued through the night pitting groups of young men against the army, an AFP reporter said.One protester in the southern city of Nabatieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, vowed to defy the crackdown. "They are trying to portray us as a mob, but we are demanding our rights," he told a local television channel. "We are used to repression." Lebanon has one of the highest public debt burdens in the world and the government is trying to reach agreement on a package of belt-tightening measures to cap the deficit in next year's budget. The promised austerity moves are essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by international donors last year.

Report: Hizbullah Dispatched Envoy Discouraging Hariri from Resigning
Naharnet/October 19/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri reportedly received tens of phone calls discouraging him from resigning, including from a “personal Hizbullah envoy”, Nidaa al-Watan newspaper said on Saturday. Throughout the night, Hariri received dozens of phone calls from ambassadors of the US, France, Britain and Germany discouraging him from resigning, as they warned of the “dangerous” consequences shall he take that step, said the daily. According to the newspaper, Hizbullah secretary-general's political aide Hussein Khalil repeatedly called the PM, who had his mobile phone turned off “out of resentment”. Hizbullah therefore dispatched a “personal” envoy discouraging Hariri from resigning. Thousands of protesters outraged by corruption and proposed tax hikes burned tyres and blocked major highways in Lebanon on Friday, prompting the premier to give his government partners three days to support a reform drive.
Demonstrations flared Thursday, partly sparked by a proposed tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp, and grew into the largest in recent years, threatening to topple Prime Minister Saad Hariri's fragile coalition government. After his speech, clashes flared in central Beirut's Riyadh al-Solh Square between demonstrators and security personnel, who fired volleys of tear gas to clear the plaza. Thousands of people of all ages, sects and political affiliations had brought the capital to a standstill Friday, with demonstrations reported across the country. The protesters are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. In a televised address Friday evening, Hariri said he understood their anger and was trying to push through change. He called on his coalition partners to give a "clear, decisive and final response to convince me, the Lebanese people and the international community... that everyone has decided on reforms, or I will have something else to say."He gave them a 72-hour deadline to do so, without directly threatening to resign.

Gulf Gov'ts Warn Travelers over Lebanon Protests
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 19/2019
Arab Gulf nations are encouraging their citizens to leave Lebanon amid violent nationwide protests over the country's worsening economic crisis.
The state-run Saudi Press Agency says Saudi Arabian nationals have been warned against travelling to Lebanon and those already there are being asked to take utmost caution. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain went a step further, calling on their citizens to leave amid the unrest.
Protests continued Saturday for a third day. Thousands of protesters have been rallying across the country, closing major roads over proposed taxes by the government. They've been railing against top leaders including the president, prime minister and parliament speaker, whom they blame for decades of corruption, and calling for the government's resignation. Earlier on Saturday Hizbullah leader said he doesn't support the government's resignation amid nationwide protests calling for politicians to step down over a deepening economic crisis. Hassan Nasrallah said Saturday that calls for the current national unity government to resign are "a waste of time" since the same political groups will haggle over forming a new one. Largescale protests that have targeted the country's entire political class have brought Lebanon to a standstill since Thursday. Nasrallah warned the protesters against being pulled into political rivalries, saying that would derail their message. He said politicians who shirk responsibility, by quitting the Cabinet while the economy crumbles, should be brought to trial. Lebanon's prime minister gave his partners in government a 72-hour ultimatum to come up with convincing solutions amid the pressures.

Gunmen Break Up Protests against Berri in Tyre
Naharnet/October 19/2019
As hundreds of Lebanese gather for fresh protests on Saturday, armed clashes were reported in the southern city of Tyre when protesters chanted slogans opposed to AMAL Movement leader and Speaker Nabih Berri. Videos circulating on social media showed pro-AMAL gunmen suppressing the campaigners by force in Tyre. “Gunmen have attacked us, beat us and opened fire,” one women said. As several youth took to social media expressing resentment. The protesters claimed they “were left to their own fate,” denouncing what they said “total absence of the army and security forces in Tyre” to defend them. On Friday, protesters tore large street posters of Berri chanting "thieves,” and fired insults at his spouse Randa Berri. AMAL supporters also got angry when a poster of AMAL founder, Imam Moussa al-Sadr was taken down. Armed clashes erupted afterwards. Protesters were reportedly subject to gunfire when they stormed the offices of AMAL MPs, Hani Qobeissi and Yassin Jaber. It is the first time that Tyre has seen public opposition to Berri. Hundreds gathered in Lebanon Saturday for a third day of protests against tax increases and alleged official corruption after the security forces made dozens of arrests. After a rise in the dollar exchange rate and the strike of fuel stations and bakeries, the government decided to impose a tax on gasoline, raise the value-added tax and impose a fee on the use of WhatsApp.

Saudi Arabia Begins Evacuation of Nationals from Lebanon
Naharnet/October 19/2019
The Embassy of Saudi Arabia announced on Saturday that evacuation of its nationals due to disturbances in Lebanon began early on Saturday. On Twitter, the Embassy said the first phase of the Emergency and Crisis Management Plan aimed at evacuating Saudi citizens and securing their safe arrival at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport began successfully. Evacuations started at five in the morning, it said. On Friday, the embassy had asked its citizens to quickly communicate with it for preparations to leave Lebanon. Thousands of protesters have been rallying across the country for the past two days, railing against top leaders including the president, prime minister and parliament speaker whom they blame for decades of corruption.

Arrests, Injuries as Army Troops Disperse Riad al-Solh Protest by Force
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 19/2019
Army troops and riot policemen used excessive force Friday evening to disperse anti-government protesters, making a large number of arrests. Violent clashes and riots had broken out in downtown Beirut following a speech by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who gave political parties a 72-hour ultimatum to support his reform agenda or face a possible resignation. Thousands of protesters have been rallying across the country for the past two days, raging against top leaders including the president, prime minister and parliament speaker whom they blame for decades of corruption and mismanagement that have led to the current crisis. The protests are the largest Lebanon has seen since 2015 and could further destabilize a country whose economy is already on the verge of collapse and has one of the highest debt loads in the world.
The protests, triggered partly by a proposal for a $6 monthly fee for WhatsApp voicecalls, drew people from all religious and political backgrounds and were largely peaceful, although violence erupted in several areas. Many said they would remain on the streets until the government resigned.
Hariri said he understood the people's "pain" and anger at his government's performance and said "we are running out of time."
Shortly after his speech, security forces fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters in central Beirut, leading to confrontations between police and young men in a downtown square. Others marched on the presidential palace in Baabda. Time and again, the protesters shouted "Revolution!" and "The people want to bring down the regime," echoing a refrain chanted by demonstrators during Arab Spring uprisings that swept the region in 2011.
They took aim at every single political leader in the country, including President Michel Aoun and his son in law, Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, as well as the prime minister and parliament speaker, blaming them for systemic corruption they say has pillaged the country's resources for decades.
"We are here today to ask for our rights. The country is corrupt, the garbage is all over the streets and we are fed up with all this," said Loris Obeid, a protester in downtown Beirut. Schools, banks and businesses shut down as the protests escalated and widened in scope to reach almost every city and province. Hundreds of people burned tires on highways and intersections in suburbs of the capital, Beirut, and in northern and southern cities, sending up clouds of black smoke in scattered protests. The road to Beirut's international airport was blocked by protesters, stranding passengers who in some cases were seen dragging suitcases on foot to reach the airport. Major arteries including the Salim Salam tunnel that connects central Beirut with the airport were blocked with sand dunes. "We are here for the future of our kids. There's no future for us, no jobs at all and this is not acceptable any more. We have shut up for a long time and now it is time to talk," Obeid added. In the northern city of Tripoli, bodyguards for a former member of parliament opened fire at protesters who closed the road for his convoy wounding three of them, witnesses said.
The tension has been building for months, as the government searched for new ways to levy taxes to manage the country's economic crisis and soaring debt. The trigger, in the end, was the news Thursday that the government was planning, among other measures, to impose a tax on WhatsApp calls -- a decision it later withdrew as people began taking to the streets. Two Syrian workers died Thursday when they were trapped in a shop that was set on fire by rioters. Dozens of people on both sides were injured. Years of regional turmoil -- worsened by an influx of 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2011 -- are catching up with Lebanon. The small Arab country on the Mediterranean has the third-highest debt level in the world, currently standing at about $86 billion, or 150% of its gross domestic product. International donors have been demanding that Lebanon implement economic changes in order to get loans and grants pledged at the CEDRE economic conference in Paris in April 2018. International donors pledged $11 billion for Lebanon but they sought to ensure the money is well spent in the corruption-plagued country. Despite tens of billions of dollars spent since the 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Lebanon still has crumbling infrastructure including daily electricity cuts, trash piles in the streets and often sporadic, limited water supplies from the state-owned water company.

Tens of thousands gather across Lebanon for third day of protests
News Agencies/BEIRUT/October 19/2019
Tens of thousands of Lebanese people took to the streets Saturday for a third day of protests against tax increases and alleged official corruption despite several arrests by security forces. They streamed into the streets around the country's parliament in Beirut, as well as elsewhere across the country, AFP journalists said, despite calls for calm from politicians and dozens of arrests on Friday. The number of protesters grew steadily throughout the day, with major demonstrations in second city Tripoli, in the north, and other locations. Many waved billowing Lebanese flags and insisted the protests should remain peaceful and non-sectarian. The demonstrators are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to poor infrastructure. They have crippled main roads and threatened to topple the country's fragile coalition government.
Most Lebanese politicians have uncharacteristically admitted the demonstrations are spontaneous, rather than blaming outside influence. In Tripoli demonstrator Hoda Sayyur was unimpressed by the contrition some leaders displayed on television and echoed a widely-held hope that the entire political class be replaced."They took all our fundamental rights... We are dying at hospital gates," the woman in her fifties said. "I will stay in the street... Since I was born, we've been spectators to their quarrels and corruption," she said.The army on Saturday called on protesters to "express themselves peacefully without harming public and private property".

Saudi Arabia successfully evacuates its citizens from Lebanon
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Beirut evacuates its citizens from Lebanon, following a night of protests that turned violent across different regions of the Mediterranean nation. The embassy in Beirut began operations on Friday to evacuate its citizens due to the disturbances in Lebanon, according to a communique. The embassy asked its citizens to quickly communicate with it for preparations to leave Lebanon. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs also warned citizens against traveling to Lebanon and called on those in Lebanon to exercise the utmost caution. Anti-government protests have spread across Lebanon, directed at a political elite that demonstrators blame for driving the country to the economic brink. On Friday night police in Beirut rounded up protesters, firing rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse riots that grew violent as the night wore on, leaving gutted streets looking like a battle zone, strewn with glass and debris.
Lebanon's internal security apparatus said 52 police were injured on Friday and its forces arrested 70 people. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also warned their citizens against traveling to Lebanon. Bahrain told its nationals to leave at once.

Lebanon 'Kick Queen' Hits Government Where It Hurts
Naharnet/October 19/2019
A woman who kicked an armed ministerial bodyguard in the groin has become a symbol of growing anti-corruption protests in Lebanon.
The video of the incident went viral on Lebanese social media Thursday night, helping fuel fresh demonstrations Friday. The woman, whose identity remains unknown, has drawn comparisons to the so-called Nubian Queen, a Sudanese woman whose image went viral after she was pictured directing protests that ultimately led to the overthrow of long-time dictator Omar Bashir in April. Lebanese media reports said the incident happened Thursday evening when the convoy of Education Minister Akram Chehayeb was confronted by demonstrators in central Beirut. One of the minister's bodyguards got out of the car and fired an assault rifle in the air, sparking an angry reaction from the crowd. In a scuffle, as another bodyguard steps back while holding a gun in the air, the woman leans back and fires a left-footed side kick into his groin. The man, seemingly shocked, staggers forward. The video has been shared thousands of times online and highlighted as a symbol of two days of demonstrations against corruption and proposed tax hikes. "When they steal your money, corrupt your country, and pull a machine gun at you -- you give them a quick kick in the groin!" one user said on Twitter. "Our women don't just kick ass, they kick men with guns," another said. One blogger shared a stylised screen grab of the image, saying it should be called "Lebanon's Kick-their-Ass Revolution." Demonstrators took to the streets Thursday evening for the largest protests in several years. Many are calling for an overhaul of Lebanon's sectarian system and voicing contempt for their leaders. At renewed protests Friday, demonstrators said the video made them determined to press on. "I felt the anger in her and (her) just doing it, without anything else in her mind," Marina, 25, said. "She was angry and she expressed it in the movement, not just by speaking. Usually a woman doesn't act (out physically)." Jen, a 26-year-old who works in advertising, said: "I think all the women felt like somebody is representing them and somebody is fighting for them.""It showed that women don't need a man to fight for them," she told AFP.
Hannah, 24, said the video inspired her to fight against a "patriarchal society". "We shouldn't be afraid to hit this man, we shouldn't be afraid of them," she said. "It is time to show our strength."

KSRelief Distributes Food Aid in Northern Lebanon, Treats Injured in Yemen
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
The King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center (KSRelief) in collaboration with the White Hands Society continues to distribute 40,000 loaves of bread a day to the families of orphans and needy Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians in northern Lebanon. This came as an extension of the Saudi government's efforts, represented by the KSRelief, to alleviate the suffering of the needy people around the world. The Saudi center also signed in Aden two executive programs to treat the Yemenis injured in the recent developments in Aden in partnership with a number of private sector hospitals in Aden Governorate.
The contracts were signed by Ahmed bin Ali Al-Beiz, Assistant General Supervisor of the Center for Operations and Programs, under which health and medical care will be provided to the targeted persons, the Saudi Press Agency reported. The Director of the Department of Medical and Environmental Aid, Dr. Abdullah bin Saleh Al-Moallem said in a press statement that within this initiative launched by the Center, and the implementation of the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to treat the wounded of recent events in both Aden and Abyan last August, in cooperation with the Yemeni Ministry of Health and Population, the Center signed two executive programs for the treatment of Yemenis injured inside Yemen worth US $ 320,000, benefitting more than 100 injured.

Lebanon Army Cracks Down on Protests as Government Bickers
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
The Lebanese army moved to end a wave of protests against tax increases and alleged official corruption Saturday as the fragile governing coalition fractured over promised economic reforms. Troops reopened some major highways that had been blocked by protesters after firing tear gas and water cannons to disperse the huge crowd that had gathered into the early hours in Riyadh al-Solh Square in the heart of the capital Beirut. The Internal Security Forces said 70 protesters were arrested. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has given his deeply divided coalition partners until Monday evening to give their backing to a reform package aimed at shoring up the government's finances and securing the disbursement of desperately needed economic assistance from donors. Hariri's political rival, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was expected to give his Shiite militant group's response in a speech to be aired later on Saturday.
Groups of young people gathered on the streets of the capital during the morning, preparing for a new day of protests despite the burgeoning crackdown. They collected tires and other material with which to throw up improvised roadblocks, AFP correspondents reported. Parts of central Beirut looked like a war zone, littered with broken glass, overturned litter bins and the remains of burning tires. Banks and many restaurants and shops remained closed. The demonstrations first erupted on Thursday, sparked by a proposed 20 cent tax on calls via messaging apps such as WhatsApp. Such calls are the main method of communication for many Lebanese and, despite the government's swift abandonment of the tax, the demonstrations quickly swelled into the largest in years. The protesters are demanding a sweeping overhaul of Lebanon's political system, citing grievances ranging from austerity measures to alleged corruption to poor infrastructure. Thousands of people of all ages, sects, and political affiliations brought the capital to a standstill on Friday, with demonstrations reported across the country. Minor clashes continued through the night pitting groups of young men against the army, an AFP reporter said. One protester in the southern city of Nabatieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, vowed to defy the crackdown. "They are trying to portray us as a mob, but we are demanding our rights," he told a local television channel. "We are used to repression." Lebanon has one of the highest public debt burdens in the world and the government is trying to reach agreement on a package of belt-tightening measures to cap the deficit in next year's budget. The promised austerity moves are essential if Lebanon is to unlock $11 billion in economic assistance pledged by international donors last year.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 19-20/2019
Turkey, Kurds Exchange Accusations on Syria Ceasefire Violation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
Turkey on Saturday accused Kurdish forces of violating a US-brokered agreement to suspend its military operation in northeastern Syria if they withdraw from a safe zone along the border. "The Turkish armed forces fully abide by the agreement" reached on Thursday with the United States, the defense ministry said in a statement. "Despite this, terrorists ... carried out a total of 14 attacks in the last 36 hours." But the Kurdish forces said Turkey was failing to abide by the terms of the ceasefire, refusing to lift a siege it imposed on a key border town in northeastern Syria 30 hours after the truce went into effect.
The Syrian Democratic Forces called on US Vice President Mike Pence, who negotiated the deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to take responsibility for enforcing the five-day ceasefire, which got off to a rocky start, with sporadic fighting and shelling around Ras al-Ain Friday. The border town is a test for the deal in which Turkey asks that Kurdish fighters vacate the frontier zone. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Saturday that Turkey-backed Syrian fighters have prevented a medical convoy from reaching Ras al-Ain since Friday. Turkey will set up a dozen observation posts across northeast Syria, Erdogan said on Friday, insisting that the planned safe zone will extend much farther than US officials said was covered under the fragile ceasefire deal. Less than 24 hours after he agreed the truce to allow Kurdish forces time to pull back from Turkey's crossborder assault, Erdogan underlined Ankara's ambition to establish a presence along 300 miles of territory inside Syria.

Turkey Denies Blocking Retreat of Kurdish Forces in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 19/2019
Turkey on Saturday denied Kurdish forces' claim that Ankara is blocking their pullout from a proposed safe zone along the border under a US-brokered agreement. "YPG is disseminating false information to sabotage the Turkey-US agreement," a senior official told AFP, referring to Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) deemed by Ankara as a terrorist group linked to outlawed Kurdish militants in Turkey. "By spreading fake news, YPG terrorists are challenging President (Donald) Trump," the official said. The commander of Kurdish forces in Syria, Mazloum Abdi, earlier Saturday accused Ankara of sabotaging the agreement with Washington by blocking the withdrawal of his forces from a flashpoint border town in northeastern Syria. The Turkish official said Ankara was in coordination with Washington about the pullout. "We are on the same page with the United States," he said. "The Turkish military provided detailed information, including coordinates, with the United States to facilitate the YPG's withdrawal." Turkey has agreed to suspend its Syria offensive for five days and to end the assault if Kurdish-led forces withdraw, after talks with US Vice President Mike Pence in Ankara. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday warned that if this deal fails, Turkey would "crush the heads" of Kurdish forces. The Turkish official said Ankara was sticking to the agreement. "Turkey is 100% behind the deal," he said. "President Erdogan and President Trump showed real leadership to make this deal happen. It's bizarre to think that we'd violate an agreement that we like."Ankara says the YPG is a "terrorist" offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency inside Turkey since 1984.
The PKK is blacklisted as a terror group by Ankara, the US and the European Union.

Erdogan to discuss Syrian deployment in ‘safe zone’ with Putin next week
Reuters, Ankara/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday he would discuss the deployment of Syrian government forces in a planned “safe zone” in northern Syria during talks with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin next week, but warned Ankara would “implement its own plans” if a solution was not reached.
Turkey agreed with the United States on Thursday to pause its military offensive in northeastern Syria for five days while Kurdish fighters withdrew from a “safe zone.”Erdogan will visit Sochi for emergency talks with Putin on what steps to take next. Speaking at an opening ceremony in the central Turkish province of Kayseri, Erdogan also said that Turkey would “crush the heads” of Kurdish militants in northern Syria if they did not withdraw from the area during the 120-hour period. On Friday, President Erdogan said that Turkey will set up a dozen observation posts across northeast Syria, insisting that a planned “safe zone” will extend much further than US officials said was covered under a fragile ceasefire deal.

Turkish troops ready to continue offensive if truce not implemented: Minister
Reuters, Ankara/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Turkish troops in northern Syria are ready to continue their offensive if a deal with Washington to pause the conflict is not fully implemented, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday. Turkey and Washington agreed on Thursday for Ankara to halt its offensive for 120 hours while the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia withdraws from a “safe zone” in northeastern Syria. On Saturday, the fragile ceasefire was holding along the Syrian border. “We paused the operation for five days. In this time, the terrorists will withdraw from the safe zone, their weapons will be collected and position destroyed. If this doesn’t happen, we will continue the operation,” Akar said. “Our preparations are ready. With the necessary order, our soldiers are ready to go anywhere,” he told an event in Kayseri. Turkey on Saturday accused Kurdish forces of violating an agreement to suspend its Syria offensive if they withdraw from a “safe zone” along the border, but the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) denied Turkey’s claims.

Trump's Syria Withdrawal Is 'Strategic Nightmare'- McConnell
Washington- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
US Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell Friday attacked President Donald Trump's decision to pull troops from Syria as "a strategic nightmare" that will help Washington's foes and hurt its allies. "Withdrawing US forces from Syria is a grave strategic mistake," McConnell, the top Republican in Congress, wrote in an op-ed published in The Washington Post. "It will leave the American people and homeland less safe, embolden our enemies, and weaken important alliances."His comments come after Trump Wednesday defended his decision to pull US troops out of Syria as "strategically brilliant."McConnell, usually a staunch supporter of the president, had earlier in the month condemned Trump's withdrawal of troops from northeast Syria, which sparked a week-long Turkish offensive against the Kurds who were allied with the US in the fight against ISIS. Fighting has continued despite a temporary ceasefire Vice President Mike Pence brokered with Ankara. "The combination of a US pullback and the escalating Turkish-Kurdish hostilities is creating a strategic nightmare for our country," McConnell wrote in his opinion piece. "Even if the five-day ceasefire announced Thursday holds, events of the past week have set back the United States' campaign against ISIS and other terrorists," he said. McConnell did not mention Trump by name, though he did liken the Syria withdrawal to the foreign policy of Trump's Democratic predecessor Barack Obama. "We saw ISIS flourish in Iraq after President Barack Obama's retreat. We will see these things anew in Syria and Afghanistan if we abandon our partners and retreat from these conflicts before they are won," McConnell wrote. "America's wars will be 'endless' only if America refuses to win them," he added in an apparent jab at Trump's insistence that the withdrawal was necessary "to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars." The offensive has killed more than 500 people, including dozens of civilians, while some 300,000 civilians have been displaced within Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor.

Egypt Unveils Details of 30 Ancient Coffins Found in Luxor
Luxor- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
Egypt's antiquities authority has revealed the details of 30 ancient wooden coffins recently discovered in the southern city of Luxor. Mostafa Waziri, secretary general of the Supreme Council of Antiquities, told reporters Saturday that the coffins, with inscriptions and paintings, were found in the Asasif Necropolis on the River Nile's west bank near Luxor. He says the coffins were for men, women, and children from the 22nd dynasty (945 B.C. 715 B.C.), and had been collected and hidden by a priest for fear of being looted. He says the coffins were in two layers, with the ones on top across those below. Egypt has sought publicity for its archaeological discoveries in the hopes of reviving its tourism sector, which was badly hit by the turmoil following the 2011 uprising.

Russian officials discuss with Assad de-escalating tensions in northeast Syria
Reuters, Moscow/Saturday, 19 October 2019
A delegation of Russian officials discussed with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Friday the need to de-escalate the situation in northeast Syria, Russia's foreign ministry said on Saturday. “The discussion focused on the current situation 'on the ground' in Syria in the light of rising tensions in the north-east of the country,” the ministry said in a statement. “The need to take measures to de-escalate the situation and ensure security in these areas was noted.”

Germany: Intelligence Chief Calls for Vigilance, Fearing ISIS Return
Berlin- Raghida Bahnam
A state of alert has taken over in Germany’s capital, Berlin, amidst fears of the return of German ISIS militants held by the Kurds in Syria. Head of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) Thomas Haldenwang have joined parties launching these calls. In remarks to Der Spiegel website, Haldenwang said German security services shall be “vigilant” for the possible return of fighters. “The conflict in northern Syria may lead to the release of foreign ISIS militants from prisons and their return to Europe,” he explained. He also expressed fears that ISIS could regain power following the Turkish military operation in Syria. According to the German government, Kurds in Syria have 84 German-national ISIS militants. Almost one third of them are classified by the German police as a threat, including 19 men and eight women.
The police believe they pose a high threat and could carry out terrorist attacks in the country. Der Spiegel said 50 out of 84 fighters may remain free after returning to Germany since there is no evidence to prosecute them for their actions in Syria and Iraq. The website added that at least four women with German citizenship have fled Kurdish prisons since the Turkish operation began a week ago. A few months ago, German newspapers reported a visit by German intelligence agents to the Kurdish prisons, where foreign fighters remain, to “assess” German fighters there. Germany refuses to take them back because it doesn’t have enough evidence to try them, meaning they will remain free. Germany's security authorities do not only fear the return of ISIS extremists but also fears the right-wing extremism, which has become an quivalent threat compared to fundamentalist militancy, according to Germany's security assessment. State interior ministers met on Friday to agree on additional measures that could be taken to combat the spread of the far right, especially after the attack on a Jewish synagogue a few days ago.

Russia doesn’t rule out new contract to supply air defense systems to Turkey
Reuters, Moscow/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Russia does not rule out reaching a new contract to supply its air defense missile systems to Turkey, Interfax news agency cited Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov as saying on Saturday. Borisov also did not rule out Turkey expressing an interest in purchasing Russian SU-35 and SU-57 aircraft, it added.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 19-20/2019
U.S. Sanctions Spur Dramatic Decline of European Imports from Iran
Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/October 19/2019
In the first six months of 2019, the value of European Union imports from Iran decreased by 94 percent in comparison with the same period in 2018, according to Eurostat. The oil trade has suffered the most: In 2019, EU countries have not imported any oil from Iran. These figures indicate that European companies are complying with U.S. sanctions despite efforts by European governments to establish an alternate payment system aimed at circumventing them.
In the first half of 2018, EU countries imported 6.1 billion euros in goods from Iran, but in 2019, the number plummeted to 384 million euros. Purchases by the EU’s top five importer countries in the first half of 2018 – Italy, Spain, France, Greece, and the Netherlands – all fell sharply.
Italy and Spain reduced their imports from Iran by 95 and 97 percent, respectively. Still, they remained in the top five importers for the first half of 2019, joined by Germany, Belgium, and Romania.
A few countries – Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, and Denmark – increased their imports in the first half of 2019, but the extent of their trade with Iran is negligible. The countries which imported the most were Romania and Bulgaria, which imported only 22 million and 19 million euros worth of goods, respectively.
Meanwhile, the EU’s data for the first half of 2019 show a 54 percent decrease in exports to Iran compared to 2018’s first half, from 4.6 billion euros to 2.1 billion euros.
The staggering decline of trade is primarily the result of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the lifeblood of the country’s economy. In 2018, EU countries imported 8.2 billion euros of crude oil from Iran, constituting 88 percent of the EU’s total imports from Iran that year.
Thus, the EU’s imports from Iran this year have consisted primarily of non-oil goods that are not subject to U.S. sanctions, including fruits, vegetables, food, carpets, and pharmaceutical products.
Nevertheless, EU countries still import some sanctioned products. The United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s automotive industry in August 2018, but between August 2018 and June 2019, EU countries imported 5 million euros in vehicles, parts and, accessories.
In November 2018, the United States also designated Iran’s petrochemical industry, the country’s most lucrative sector after oil. Yet between November 2018 and June 2019, EU countries imported 97 million euros in plastic materials from Iran, 59 million euros of which was polyethylene. In the first half of 2019, imports of polyethylene dropped only 9 percent compared to the same period in 2018.
Moreover, the data do not capture potential sanctions-busting via transshipment. For example, if Iran sends goods to a second country, such as the United Arab Emirates, and a European company then imports them as Emirati goods, the shipment would not show up in tracking data as an import from Iran.
U.S. sanctions, notwithstanding Iran’s efforts to circumvent them, have proven largely effective in cutting EU’s imports from Iran. Still, the United States should seek to plug any holes in the sanctions architecture by designating any company, no matter how small, that violates U.S. sanctions. In so doing, Washington can ensure that its maximum pressure campaign against Iran exacts the costs to compel Iran to reevaluate the costs and benefits of its malign policies.
A forthcoming FDD policy brief will analyze the EU’s exports to Iran in greater detail.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Trump’s first mistake in Syria was ever trusting Erdogan at all
David Adesnik/Aykan Erdemir/The Washington Post/October 19/2019
President Trump’s deficient understanding of Muslims, many of whom are at the forefront of the fight against radical Islamism, leads him to see threats where none exist. It also prevents him from recognizing that an Islamist in a custom-designed suit and $800 tie may be just as dangerous as an extremist whose turbaned head and traditional robes conform to popular stereotypes.
Case in point: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Trump ran for president by pledging to wage war on “radical Islam,” yet he has granted concessions to Erdogan that his advisers told him are inimical to U.S. national security interests. In a phone call with Erdogan on Oct. 6, Trump agreed to pull U.S. troops from the Syrian-Turkish border, clearing the way for Turkish troops and a motley crew of Islamist proxies to assault the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which partnered with the United States to defeat the Islamic State in Syria.
Trump was apparently counting on Erdogan not to do anything the United States would “consider to be off limits.” Three days later, after the Turks’ unrestrained assault had begun, Trump pleaded with Erdogan, “History will look upon you favorably if you get this done the right and humane way.” If Trump had been more skeptical, he would have discovered that Erdogan’s ideology entails the rejection of limits that would otherwise constrain a NATO ally like Turkey.
In contrast to Islam, the faith practiced by more than a billion Muslims, Islamism is a political doctrine that calls for the subordination of governments and peoples to Islamic law. In pursuit of that goal, Erdogan has supported the violent jihad of Hamas and even, for a while, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, or the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. He has also given free rein to terror financiers, helped Iran evade sanctions and taken American citizens as hostages.
Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power in 2002 on the heels of an economic crisis that pushed all existing political parties out of the Turkish parliament. Erdogan, who presented himself as an outsider capable of fixing a broken system, reassured skeptics wary of his radical past by claiming that he had “taken off the shirt” of Islamism to establish a “conservative democratic party.” In fact, the AKP’s roots, like those of the long line of Turkish Islamist parties before it, are intertwined with those of the Muslim Brotherhood, the region’s preeminent advocate of Islamism since its founding in Egypt in 1928.
After securing a sizable majority in Turkey’s 2007 election, Erdogan began to do away with checks and balances on his power while employing various arms of the Brotherhood to project Turkish influence throughout the Middle East. The Arab Spring of 2011 created unprecedented opportunities to pursue such an agenda.
In Tunisia, Erdogan supported the Ennahda party, which grew out of the Brotherhood but has shown consistent deference to democratic norms. In Egypt, the Turkish leader supported the Brotherhood government of Mohamed Morsi, who governed in an increasingly autocratic manner yet fell to a military coup before his respect for free elections could be tested.
In Syria, Erdogan made clear he would not respect limits on working with those who perpetrate atrocities and terrorism. Turkish airport authorities watched passively as young men from across the world arrived without luggage and headed across the border to join the Islamic State and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. At the time, Vice President Joe Biden told students at Harvard that U.S. allies, including Turkey and the Persian Gulf states, “poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad,” including Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.
The war in Syria also led Saleh al-Arouri, the West Bank commander of Hamas’s Qassam Brigades, to seek refuge in Turkey. From there, he planned the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers. Their deaths marked the point of no return on Israel’s road to war with Hamas in the summer of 2014. After the fighting subsided, Arouri proudly claimed responsibility for the triple murder at a conference in Istanbul, also attended by Turkey’s deputy prime minister. U.S. and Israeli pressure eventually forced Erdogan to send Arouri packing.
While moving millions to Hamas, Turkish financial institutions have shown the ability to move billions for Iran. The details became public thanks to the federal prosecution of what may be the largest sanctions-evasion scheme on record, which netted Iran an estimated $20 billion.
One defendant, Reza Zarrab, chose to cooperate with the prosecutors. At trial, he walked the jury through the complicated mechanisms he engineered for evading the aggressive sanctions Congress imposed on Iran from 2010 through 2015. Zarrab testified that Erdogan himself authorized some of the transactions and that the minister of economy received payoffs for his participation. This ought to have served as ample warning that neither the law nor a formal alliance would restrain Erdogan. Amazingly, Trump pressed then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to intervene with the Justice Department to drop its prosecution of Zarrab, who hired Rudolph Giuliani to make his case to the White House. Tillerson adamantly refused, on the grounds that Trump’s request was illegal.
Erdogan also sought to negotiate Zarrab’s freedom in exchange for that of Andrew Brunson, a North Carolina pastor whom Turkey had imprisoned on trumped-up charges. The deal fell through, and Trump briefly imposed sanctions on Turkey until it let Brunson go — an indication that Erdogan is susceptible to timely and well-calibrated pressure. (Trump alluded to those sanctions in a letter he sent Erdogan earlier this month.)
Erdogan’s use of Brunson provides an apt illustration of the Turkish leader’s hostage diplomacy. Like Iran, Erdogan has taken dozens of Westerners hostage to increase his leverage with their governments. He still holds one U.S. consular employee in prison and prevents another from leaving the country.
When examining Erdogan’s foreign policy, it is tempting to conclude that he is a grandmaster of diplomatic chess who knows precisely how to push the outer limits of realpolitik. Admittedly, there is something extraordinary about his ability to collude with so many illicit actors and rogue states, ranging from Russia to Venezuela, while remaining a member of NATO in good standing.
Yet rather than a realist, Erdogan remains a prisoner of the deeply ingrained conspiracy theories that have shaped Turkish Islamists for generations. On his watch, Turkey’s state-owned broadcaster TRT produced and aired a revisionist historical blockbuster that laid the country’s woes at the doorsteps of a Jewish cabal led by Theodor Herzl himself.
While such fare has the benefit of stoking outrage among Erdogan’s supporters, the Turkish president also treats anti-Semitic conspiracy theories as a guide to making economic policy. Rather than addressing inflation with the tools familiar to economists, Erdogan rages against “the interest rate lobby,” which he accuses of seeking Turkey’s destruction. He has also taken to denouncing “the famous Hungarian Jew [George] Soros” for sowing economic chaos.
The depth of Erdogan’s commitment to Islamism renders it highly unlikely that he will ever accept the rules that other members of NATO take for granted. Yet unlike a stateless insurgent, Erdogan has many assets to protect from both U.S. sanctions and other forms of pressure. The Brunson incident demonstrates his sensitivity, especially with Turkey’s economy now in recession and its currency reeling.
Trump’s threats to “destroy and obliterate” the Turkish economy play into Erdogan’s hands, however, because they create the impression of an American assault on Turkish citizens. The White House and Congress should take strong action — but they should be clear that their targets are Erdogan and his clique, whom many Turks resent deeply for religious authoritarianism on the home front. While there is a growing bipartisan majority in Congress that recognizes Erdogan as an ill-advised ally, the effectiveness of American pressure is likely to rest on Trump recognizing the Turkish president for what he really is.
*David Adesnik is director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Aykan Erdemir, a former member of the Turkish parliament, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

A New Way to Measure Human Progress
Ajay Chhibber/Bloomberg/Saturday, 19 October, 2019
At International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington this week, there will be much debate about slowing global growth, the impact of the US-China trade war, the role of central banks in preventing a global recession, the risk of disruption to oil markets and much more. What you won’t hear, beyond a few platitudes, is a detailed plan for combating climate change and slowing the depletion of the earth’s resources.
This pattern of neglect won’t change unless we do a much better job of linking the climate to economic progress. That in turn will require changing the way we measure development.
The world still looks at human progress in almost exclusively economic terms. Countries view growth in their stock markets and their GDP per capita with chest-thumping pride. Almost three decades ago, the United Nations Development Programme tried to produce a more nuanced measure of progress by including life expectancy and education along with income in its Human Development Index. While a welcome innovation, the original HDI is still relatively crude, failing to account for such things as sustainability and inequality.
How much those omissions can matter became clear recently, after the UN added an inequality-adjusted index (IHDI) to its 2018 Human Development Report. Including inequality as a factor dramatically altered countries’ rankings. The US, for instance, fell from 13th on the original index to 25th on the adjusted one. By contrast, Finland rose from 15th to fifth place.
Accounting for climate damage would likely have an even bigger impact. Countries that rank high on the human development index also use more carbon and deplete more natural resources than those below them. In other words, our metrics favor unsustainable, environmentally damaging growth. (Using more energy also produces a higher ranking but only up to roughly 100 gigajoules per person; beyond that, countries are wasting energy in inefficient systems, not improving human development.)
The same applies to the relationship between the HDI rankings and a measure known as an “ecological footprint.” Up to the middle of the list, where around 140 mostly low- and middle-income countries sit, the footprint is relatively small, less than 2 global hectares per capita (a measure of the world’s global ecological capacity per person). That number rises sharply among countries with higher development levels, however, increasing to as much as 8-10 global hectares.
If we want leaders to consider how badly their policies are damaging the environment, we need a new development index, one that takes account of various environmental variables such as CO2 emissions per capita, SO2 emissions (a measure of air quality), groundwater extraction and share of renewable energy. Doing so would drop the rankings of countries from the US to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Australia by over 15 spots apiece. If the ecological footprints of countries were considered, the rankings of Canada, Estonia and, surprisingly, Finland in addition to those countries would drop by over 20 places.
Other attempts to produce a more sophisticated measure of development haven’t gotten traction. While the UN agreed to pursue its Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, the system -- which includes 17 goals and 169 indicators -- is too complicated to measure succinctly. The Happy Planet Index hasn’t gained wide acceptability because it mixes observed data on things like life expectancy and inequality with survey results measuring well-being.
A Social Progress Index, inspired by the writings of Nobel-winning economists such as Amartya Sen, Joseph Stiglitz and Douglas North, produces rankings that don’t differ all that much from the HDI. The World Bank has introduced the concept of adjusted net savings to measure changes to wealth (a stock) rather than GDP (a flow), while accounting for additions or depletion of natural capital. But the measure doesn’t adequately address the huge stock of accumulating CO2, SO2 or methane in the atmosphere, the country-sized swarms of plastic now floating in the oceans or the melting of glaciers -- all things that show we may be at an environmental tipping point.
Over the last 30 years, the shift from looking just at GDP to judging countries on health and education outcomes has produced real progress, as the world has improved its human development index by over 20% since 1990 and, more meaningfully, in the least developed countries by over 50%. If we want real action on climate, we now need to include damage to the environment and depletion of natural resources as factors in measuring development. Otherwise all these fine-sounding speeches are just more hot air.

The IRGC want to be the real power-brokers in Iran
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 19/2019
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The military arm of Tehran wants to be the only channel for dialogue but continues to issue threats
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who hold the real power in Iran, are sending dangerous messages to the world and their regional neighbours, the first of which is that dialogue with Tehran should go through them, not the president or foreign minister. If the IRGC continue to feel cornered, they could respond with military operations in the region and a power-grab at home. Next month will be crunch time, when there will be an assessment of the impact of crippling US sanctions. The IRGC plan to contain domestic resentment through foreign operations that could rally nationalist sentiment behind the regime. But before delving into this issue, it is important to assess the implications of Turkey’s invasion of north-east Syria and the visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The state visit came as the US and Turkey agreed a five-day ceasefire and the creation of a Turkish-controlled buffer zone in north-eastern Syria. These developments have left Russia anxious. Mr Putin has invited his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a meeting in Moscow next week to clarify matters and to explain the Turkish trajectory. Mr Erdogan leaves Mr Putin with many concerns, not least because of the distrust between them, while there are implications for Russia’s ambitions in finding a political solution for Syria through the Astana process. This process, which includes Russia, Turkey and Iran, is the cornerstone of Moscow’s interests and strategy in Syria.
The IRGC is hurting under the weight of sanctions and suffering from international isolation while being designated a terrorist organisation by Washington
Today Russia is assessing the actions of Turkish and Iranian partners in an uncertain time. Indeed, the Russian president has firmly communicated to Iran’s leaders his opposition to operations by the IRGC in the Gulf. Mr Putin’s visit was a rare opportunity for Russia to identify how far it can make a positive breakthrough in Arab Gulf countries at all levels. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, he proposed to play the role of facilitator between the two sides. According to informed sources, Mr Putin will hold talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani next week to offer mediation.
Trade was also a major component in Mr Putin’s talks, both at the level of Opec co-operation and major deals. Russia’s economy is sluggish and Mr Putin needs oil prices to stabilise at about $60 per barrel to afford his grand national projects.
Russian co-operation with Gulf countries could also include technology, space and education. During the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi last week, Russian speakers were keen to highlight the importance of Mr Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, saying it sent a message to Washington that Russia’s eastward policy does not just include China but also the Middle East, and that Russia and China are co-ordinating their policies in the Middle East and the Gulf at a time of receding confidence in the US and its commitments to the security of its partners.
At the same summit, US officials who took part in the summit reported that the Trump administration has communicated its red lines to Iran: namely, that US troops in the entire region are off limits. Perhaps this is a time of weakness and desperation for the IRGC, hurting under the weight of sanctions and suffering from international isolation while being designated a terrorist organisation by Washington. It wants to be the only channel for dialogue but at the same time, continues to issue threats.
The coming month will be indicative of whether IRGC threats are serious or just a desperate attempt to take control. But what is not clear in this phase of US policy in the Middle East is what would be tolerable to the Trump administration. The question remains, too, whether the US could accept dealing with the IRGC, Iran’s deep state, rather than Mr Rouhani and foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, thought to be secondary to the actual power-brokers of Tehran.
**Raghida Dergham is the founder and president of the Beirut Institute

Debunking the myths over US withdrawal from Syria
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arabic News/October 19/2019
Over the present Syria crisis, precipitated by Donald Trump withdrawing around 1,000 US troops from the Syrian-Turkish border in the wake of Ankara’s threatened military lunge toward the Syrian Kurds, the usual American interventionist suspects have predictably decried the president’s actions. Like the mythical Chicken Little, the same US right-wing neoconservatives and Democratic hawks who precipitated the Iraq disaster now blithely tell us the sky is falling down.
Their first false argument is that Russia is now poised to dominate the Middle East as a result of the US withdrawal from northern Syria. Let us be clear — and this cannot be overstated — Russia has a gross domestic product the size of the state of Texas. By any political, economic, or demographic standard, Russia is a fading power, not a rising one.
Even regionally, Russia is not remotely a dominant player. Syria is the only country in the Middle East where Russia has a military base; in contrast, America has troops in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE. So it is nothing short of hysterical to say that, by increasing its role in peripheral Syria, Russia now dominates the region.
The second false argument is that, in withdrawing, the US is betraying its Kurdish allies. Here it is time for everyone to take a deep breath and grow up. It is certainly true that the Kurds were vital allies, working intimately with America in destroying Daesh’s supposed caliphate, taking 11,000 casualties while the US provided the logistics, air power, training and intelligence.
But this is international relations, where ever since the dawn of time foreign policy has been primarily based on a country’s interests. To pretend otherwise is simply to ignore the past 3,000 years of history. The Kurds helped the US because there was an obvious common interest in destroying Daesh. The Kurds also assisted American efforts in Syria because they were well-paid and supplied by the US to do so. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this — it is the way of the world. But to pretend that they did so out of some general love for the US, playing Butch Cassidy to the American Sundance Kid, is to think in terms of fairy tales.
All alliances are temporary and dissipate when the common interests that led to the entente in the first place fade away. This is what has happened over the past few weeks in Syria. Think of the counterfactual: Was Trump supposed to actively go to war with long-term NATO ally Turkey, a country that houses US nuclear weapons at its base in Incirlik, in order to stand by the Kurds? Of course not. And, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made crystal clear in his now infamous call with Trump, that amounts to the other American option. Rightly, Trump let US interests dictate his response.
The current developments are both a consequence of Turkey’s new neo-Ottoman emphasis on the Middle East, and Trump’s Jacksonian turn away from the region.
The third interventionist argument is that Daesh, in the midst of this country-wide chaos, will quickly reconstitute itself. In terms of re-establishing a physical caliphate in eastern Syria and western Iraq, the smashed Daesh fighters are simply in no position to do so. Well before Trump’s standing down on the Syrian border, Daesh morphed into primarily a terrorist threat, rather than amounting to a regional power player.
This is a real problem, but one that ought to be manageable by global policing and intelligence sharing. Daesh will surely strike again, but this is a second-order difficulty, one that has not materially changed as a result of Trump’s actions. Daesh’s over-hyped resurrection is also not a reason for the US to remain in Syria endlessly.
So if all this is what is not happening in Syria, what is happening? First, in terms of grand strategy, the US drawdown is yet another step on the road to it moving toward a more offshore, balancing role in the Middle East. It is staying in the region but in a more limited way as its attention turns to Asia, the region that in the coming years will contain much of the world’s political risk, but also much of its economic reward.
Second, and despite the cobbled-together cease-fire, the longstanding US-Turkish alliance is well and truly over. In erratically tactically acquiescing in the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, and then just as quickly censuring Erdogan, in the short run Trump finds himself in the worst of all political worlds: Hated by interventionists for giving way to Ankara, and distrusted by noninterventionists as he attempts to be tough with Turkey, long after the horse has left the stable.
The final nail in the coffin will be when the US removes the 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs from Turkey’s Incirlik base. Though they remain under the strict custody of US Air Force personnel, their (rightful) removal will signal what we all now know: Neither the US nor Turkey trusts the other over vital security matters. Strategically, this is both a consequence of Turkey’s new neo-Ottoman emphasis on the Middle East, and Trump’s Jacksonian turn away from the region. Ironically, as was true with the Kurdish alliance, bereft of common interests, Washington and Ankara are definitively going their own ways.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Iran’s ‘useful idiots’ turn on the West
Peter Welby/Arabic News/October 19/2019
The Islamic Human Rights Commission is one of the Iranian regime’s ‘useful idiots’ — parroting lines, taking offense when Iran wants offense to be taken, ignoring genuine human rights issues when they are inconvenient. (AFP)
There was a minor story in the British media last week about an organization call the Islamic Human Rights Commission (IHRC); minor in that most of its readers won’t have heard of the organization, but nevertheless quite revealing. The gist was that the IHRC is mostly funded by a separate charity (the IHRC Trust), which through its charitable status can reclaim tax on donations — and by this means, the IHRC has obtained £250,000 in reclaimed taxes.
That all seems quite innocuous; when I give to charities in the UK, they claim the tax back on what I have given. The problem, though, is that IHRC is not the well-meaning human rights organization that one might deduce from its name. Of its four directors, one is secretary to Iran’s Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution. Two others have boasted of their “radicalization” to “Islamism” and their support of Hezbollah. Its “campaigns” page is curiously favorable to Iranian foreign policy.
The most generous conclusion is that IHRC is one of the Iranian regime’s “useful idiots” — parroting lines, taking offense when Iran wants offense to be taken, ignoring genuine human rights issues when they are inconvenient. Unlike the Cold War, when organizations linked to the Soviet Union would have drawn close security service monitoring and media suspicion, Western policy and social attitudes toward the Middle East and politicized Islam are often shaped by willful ignorance and a lack of appreciation that ideas matter.
Little critical thinking is applied to the motivations of such groups, so that when claims about “human rights abuses” meet the public’s general perceptions, they are often accepted without question. Couple this with the growing dominance of grievance-based politics, and the same techniques can be applied on domestic policy; see, for example, IHRC’s disgust that Britain’s Jews receive greater security expenditure per head than Hindus, Sikhs or Muslims.
Nor is IHRC Iran’s only “useful idiot” or outright front. Some are more blatant than others. Press TV, to which Jeremy Corbyn was a regular paid contributor, was eventually banned by the British broadcasting regulator for broadcasting a forced confession from a political prisoner; the Islamic Centre of England is led by the Iranian Supreme Leader’s personal UK representative.
Iran has another advantage, which it shares with other countries whose foreign policy is shaped by opposition to the West — the growing power of the unreconstructed left in Western politics. Jeremy Corbyn is a regular supporter of Iran, so it would be hypocritical of the Labour Party he leads to censure candidates who are similarly supportive.
The most generous conclusion is that IHRC is one of the Iranian regime’s “useful idiots” — parroting lines, taking offense when Iran wants offense to be taken, ignoring genuine human rights issues when they are inconvenient
One may think the fall of the Soviet Union would have given pause to its Western cheerleaders, but they simply transferred their allegiances to new forces. It was not the pure communism of the Soviet Union that they backed (to think there was anything pure about the 1980s Soviet Union would require a level of idiocy that was far from useful), but rather the narrative of which it was the strongest proponent; that the world was divided into the forces of imperialism and their opponents, and their opponents were on the side of the good.
By imperialism (of which the Soviet Union was a powerful practitioner) they of course meant capitalism – but even that has fallen by the wayside. The sub-text for all these self-hating citizens was “the West.” They support Iran because it is antagonistic toward the West, and IHRC because its narrative opposes the West. They watch or appear on Press TV because, in a world where facts have little value, why should a state broadcaster controlled by Iran be viewed any differently from the BBC?
This is not a tiny worldview of no relevance. It is impossible to escape for anyone in the least bit attuned to international politics. Any student at any Western university will find political discussion dominated by its proponents. Protests on almost any topic in a Western capital will be hijacked by protesters waving placards that support it. And in election after election, all across the Western world, its backers are winning elected office.
These successes are not directly attributable to Iran. A wave of national self-loathing is sweeping the Western world, surfed by countries such as Iran and its proxies. But it has consequences. If IHRC, Press TV and others are not identified and disrupted, they could change Western politics in ways that ultimately change the shape of the global order.
• Peter Welby is a consultant on religion and global affairs, specializing in the Arab world. Previously he was the managing editor of a think tank on religious extremism, the Centre on Religion & Geopolitics, and worked in public affairs in the Arabian Gulf. He is based in London, and has lived in Egypt and Yemen. Twitter: @pdcwelby

Why a new US-China ‘Cold War’ is far from inevitable
Andrew Hammond/Arabic News/October 19/2019
iUS President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave a business leaders event at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The 30th anniversary next month of the fall of the Berlin Wall marks an epochal moment in international relations, but the initial promise of what is commonly called the 1989 revolutions has now faded.
Indeed, from the vantage point of 2019, it is sometimes necessary to look back and remember the huge wave of optimism that swept the former Eastern Bloc, starting in Poland and Hungary and coming to a head in Berlin. Then came the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia, the overthrow of the communist dictatorship in Romania in December, and in December 1991 the implosion of the Soviet Union. This breathtaking period in international relations, after the decades-long Soviet-US bipolar stand-off, gave rise to optimistic expectations of how the post-Cold War world might be. Yet the vision expressed by some of a universal order of liberal, capitalist, democratic states living in peace and contentment has not just been dashed, but replaced by a different reality.
While it is still too early to make definite assessments, 2016 may be seen as one of the turning points in the post-1989 period; Donald Trump was elected US president, and the UK voted to leave the EU. What was so striking about both these events was that two of the countries previously known for their political stability, traditional rule makers of the international order, made the world a significantly more uncertain place.
However, while 2016 may indeed prove to be a defining year for historians, significant political volatility had been a feature of international politics for some time before. For much of the period since the turn of the millennium, authoritarian states such as Russia have appeared to be in the ascendancy, Islamist terrorism has been a significant concern, and unstable countries such as North Korea have acquired nuclear weapons. So marked has been this disarray that some academics have pointed to 2001, forever remembered for the 9/11 attacks in the US, as being the start of a new “20-year crisis” like the 1919-1939 interwar period.
The case for this argument lies, in part, in the many challenges confronting the US-led international order, not just the Korean nuclear challenge and international terrorism. Other geopolitical fault lines are instability in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan; Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and Washington’s relations with Moscow being more strained than at any time since the collapse of Soviet communism; and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process appearing moribund.
With Washington now re-examining its international role under Trump, it is the rise of China that is one of the biggest game changers in global affairs since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
While much has changed since the end of the Cold War, one constant is that the US remains the most powerful country in the world — certainly in a military sense. It can still project and deploy overwhelming force relative to any enemy.
But with Washington now re-examining its international role under Trump, it is the rise of China that is one of the biggest game changers in global affairs since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mirroring Beijing’s growing economic strength is an increasingly assertive foreign policy and a range of ambitious international initiatives such as the Belt and Road project.
The rise of China could be a source of growing tension with Washington, or it could develop into a fruitful G2 partnership. Growing rivalry is increasingly likely if Beijing’s military power continues to grow rapidly and China embraces a more assertive foreign policy stance toward its neighbors in Asia.
However, more cooperation is possible if the two powers can work together on issues such as climate change, and find effective ways to resolve harder power disagreements such as territorial claims in the South China Sea. In that eveny, we may transition from the postwar multilateral system into a network of loosely coordinated bilateral and regional deals in trade, security and other areas.
One of the key signs that such a future is on the horizon would be the translation of the interim trade agreement reached by Washington and Beijing this month into a comprehensive, sustainable deal. If so, the two leaders could avoid the world hurtling toward zero-sum trade relations.
It is by no means inevitable that the future international system will be defined by a new US-China “Cold War.” While US relations with China could become a force for greater global tension, they could also evolve into a deeper strategic partnership driving a new era of global growth and stability.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics