LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 19/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Be doers of the word, and not merely hearers who deceive themselves
Letter of James 01/19-27/:”You must understand this, my beloved: let everyone be quick to listen, slow to speak, slow to anger; for your anger does not produce God’s righteousness. Therefore rid yourselves of all sordidness and rank growth of wickedness, and welcome with meekness the implanted word that has the power to save your souls. But be doers of the word, and not merely hearers who deceive themselves. For if any are hearers of the word and not doers, they are like those who look at themselves in a mirror; for they look at themselves and, on going away, immediately forget what they were like. But those who look into the perfect law, the law of liberty, and persevere, being not hearers who forget but doers who act they will be blessed in their doing. If any think they are religious, and do not bridle their tongues but deceive their hearts, their religion is worthless. Religion that is pure and undefiled before God, the Father, is this: to care for orphans and widows in their distress, and to keep oneself unstained by the world.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 18-19/2019
Arrests, Injuries as Army Troops Disperse Riad al-Solh Protest by Force
Major Roads across Lebanon Blocked in 2nd Day of Protests
Riot police clash with Lebanese protesters in Beirut, injuries reported
2 Dead, 6 Hurt as Ahdab Bodyguards Open Fire at Tripoli Demo
2 Dead, Dozens Hurt and Most Roads Blocked as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Hariri Gives Parties 3 Days to Back His Reforms, Says Obstacles Put in His Way
Aoun and Hariri Call Off Cabinet Session, PM to Address Nation
Bassil Warns of 'Strife', Says Rival Political Parties Exploiting Protests
Jumblat Calls on PSP to Stage Peaceful Protests
Geagea Urges Hariri to Resign, Calls on LF to Join Protests
AMAL Warns 'Suspicious Elements' May Infiltrate Protests
Kataeb party leader MP Sami Gemayel Hails ‘Uprising,’ Calls for Early Legislative Elections, Govt. Resignation
Former PMs Stand in Solidarity with Hariri
Lebanon in lock down as protesters demand new government
Kuwait, Egypt, US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain issue warnings to citizens in Lebanon
Hizbullah Official: Presidency, Govt. and Hizbullah Not to Blame for Current Crisis

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 18-19/2019
Donald Trump says Erdogan told him he wants northern Syria cease-fire to work
Trump said that Erdogan had assured him that he wants the “cease-fire” with Kurdish militants in northern Syria to work.
Trump says ‘pause’ in fighting in northeast Syria is back on
Erdogan Says Will Restart Syria Operation Tuesday Evening if Deal Not Respected
Turkey plans presence across northeast Syria, Erdogan says
Turkish air strike kills five civilians in northeast Syria: Monitor
Erdogan denies ongoing clashes in northeast Syria after ceasefire
Kurdish mayors replaced in Turkey in crackdown on criticism of Syria assault
European, US lawmakers jointly condemn Turkey invasion
France’s Macron criticizes NATO reaction over Turkish offensive
Iraqi govt. source challenges IRGC’s story of arrest of Iranian dissident
US ground troops will not enforce Syria safe zone, says defense secretary
Israeli guards kill Palestinian assailant in West Bank

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 18-19/2019
Debunking the myths over US withdrawal from Syria/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Modi and Xi convey message of cooperation/Michael Kugelman/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Mental illness sufferers need sympathetic local help/Asma I. Abdulmalik/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Nobel Prize for Economics and a country blighted by hunger/Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/October 18, 2019
The Syrian war and the demise of international diplomacy/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 18, 2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 18-19/2019
Arrests, Injuries as Army Troops Disperse Riad al-Solh Protest by Force
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 18/2019
Army troops and riot policemen used excessive force Friday evening to disperse anti-government protesters, making a large number of arrests.
Violent clashes and riots had broken out in downtown Beirut following a speech by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who gave political parties a 72-hour ultimatum to support his reform agenda or face a possible resignation.
Thousands of protesters have been rallying across the country for the past two days, raging against top leaders including the president, prime minister and parliament speaker whom they blame for decades of corruption and mismanagement that have led to the current crisis.
The protests are the largest Lebanon has seen since 2015 and could further destabilize a country whose economy is already on the verge of collapse and has one of the highest debt loads in the world.
The protests, triggered partly by a proposal for a $6 monthly fee for WhatsApp voicecalls, drew people from all religious and political backgrounds and were largely peaceful, although violence erupted in several areas. Many said they would remain on the streets until the government resigned.
Hariri said he understood the people's "pain" and anger at his government's performance and said "we are running out of time."
Shortly after his speech, security forces fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters in central Beirut, leading to confrontations between police and young men in a downtown square. Others marched on the presidential palace in Baabda.
Time and again, the protesters shouted "Revolution!" and "The people want to bring down the regime," echoing a refrain chanted by demonstrators during Arab Spring uprisings that swept the region in 2011.
They took aim at every single political leader in the country, including President Michel Aoun and his son in law, Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, as well as the prime minister and parliament speaker, blaming them for systemic corruption they say has pillaged the country's resources for decades.
"We are here today to ask for our rights. The country is corrupt, the garbage is all over the streets and we are fed up with all this," said Loris Obeid, a protester in downtown Beirut.
Schools, banks and businesses shut down as the protests escalated and widened in scope to reach almost every city and province. Hundreds of people burned tires on highways and intersections in suburbs of the capital, Beirut, and in northern and southern cities, sending up clouds of black smoke in scattered protests. The road to Beirut's international airport was blocked by protesters, stranding passengers who in some cases were seen dragging suitcases on foot to reach the airport. Major arteries including the Salim Salam tunnel that connects central Beirut with the airport were blocked with sand dunes.
"We are here for the future of our kids. There's no future for us, no jobs at all and this is not acceptable any more. We have shut up for a long time and now it is time to talk," Obeid added.
In the northern city of Tripoli, bodyguards for a former member of parliament opened fire at protesters who closed the road for his convoy wounding three of them, witnesses said.
The tension has been building for months, as the government searched for new ways to levy taxes to manage the country's economic crisis and soaring debt.
The trigger, in the end, was the news Thursday that the government was planning, among other measures, to impose a tax on WhatsApp calls -- a decision it later withdrew as people began taking to the streets.
Two Syrian workers died Thursday when they were trapped in a shop that was set on fire by rioters. Dozens of people on both sides were injured.
Years of regional turmoil -- worsened by an influx of 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2011 -- are catching up with Lebanon. The small Arab country on the Mediterranean has the third-highest debt level in the world, currently standing at about $86 billion, or 150% of its gross domestic product.
International donors have been demanding that Lebanon implement economic changes in order to get loans and grants pledged at the CEDRE economic conference in Paris in April 2018. International donors pledged $11 billion for Lebanon but they sought to ensure the money is well spent in the corruption-plagued country. Despite tens of billions of dollars spent since the 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Lebanon still has crumbling infrastructure including daily electricity cuts, trash piles in the streets and often sporadic, limited water supplies from the state-owned water company.

Major Roads across Lebanon Blocked in 2nd Day of Protests
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/October 18/2019
Hundreds of protesters blocked major highways in Lebanon Friday, after thousands angry at proposed tax increases thronged the streets overnight demanding the government's resignation in the largest demonstrations in years. Public anger has simmered since parliament passed an austerity budget in July to help trim a ballooning deficit and flared on Thursday over plans to tax calls on messaging applications such as WhatsApp, prompting the government to withdraw the deeply unpopular proposal. On Friday morning, charred refuse bins, torched tires, broken street signs and shattered glass from damaged storefronts littered the streets of central Beirut -- the scene of violent confrontations between security forces and protesters overnight. The government announced the cancellation of a planned cabinet meeting as protesters gathered for a second day, the state-run National News Agency reported. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is expected to deliver a speech later in the day. Banks, state institutions, schools and universities were closed as protesters blocked key highways connecting the capital to the rest of the country with burning tires. Demonstrators meanwhile cut the main road to Beirut airport for a second straight day. Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan warned protesters "against damaging public and private property and blocking roads."Security forces will take necessary measures to protect the safety of civilians and their property, she said on Twitter Friday.
Tax on Whatsapp calls
Dozens gathered near government headquarters in central Beirut, screaming anti-government slogans and denouncing dire living conditions in a country with one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world. "We are here today to ask for our rights. The country is corrupt, the garbage is all over the streets and we are fed up with all this," said Loris Obeid, a protester. "We are here for the future of our kids. There's no future for us, no jobs at all and this is not acceptable any more. We have shut up for a long time and now it is time to talk," she added. A convoy of motorcycles drove towards the interior ministry, followed by dozens of protesters on foot, who chanted the popular refrain of the Arab Spring protests of 2011: "The people demand the fall of the regime."Yara, a 23-year-old graduate, said she joined up because the protests were not sectarian. "For once people are saying it doesn't matter the religion, it doesn't matter which political party you are following," she told AFP. "Today what matters is that all of the Lebanese people are protesting together." Protesters also gathered in the southern city of Sidon and in several towns in the east and north. Their numbers were expected to swell though the day.
Demonstrations erupted across the country late on Thursday after the government announced a $0.20 tax on the huge number of calls made on messaging applications. They are the largest since a 2015 refuse collection crisis sparked widespread anti-government protests. They come at a time of deep divisions within the government over a raft of issues, including not only the economic reform package, but also the allocation of public sector positions and rapprochement with the resurgent Syrian government. In central Beirut, rioting continued into the early hours of Friday.
Security forces finally dispersed the demonstrators shortly before dawn, firing volleys of tear gas and rubber bullets after they tried to storm government headquarters. The clashes wounded at least 23 protesters, according to the Red Cross, and 60 security force personnel, according to police. NNA said two foreign workers choked to death early Friday after they were trapped in a building set alight by rioters. Other reports said the two men were Syrian.
In a sign of the scale of the popular anger, demonstrations were reported Thursday in neighborhoods dominated by Hizbullah, a party not used to opposition in its own bastions. Protesters also burned pictures of Hariri in the northern city of Tripoli, where he is influential, and others protested near Beirut against President Michel Aoun. Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs think-tank, said the protests were "totally spontaneous" and appeared to be against the entire political class. "The protests are a result of a piling up of grievances, resulting mainly from government mismanagement," he said.
'Give me light'
Residents suffer from constant electricity shortages and poor internet. "I want the streets to be lit. I don't want to hear any more generators," Dima Abu Hassan, 42, said. "Start there -- at least some infrastructure."The government has also come under heavy criticism over its response to forest fires. Growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the face of repeated political deadlock in recent years, compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. "Most high-frequency indicators point towards a continuation of weak growth in 2019," the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of that figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks. Last month, banks and money exchange houses rationed dollar sales, sparking fears of a devaluation of the Lebanese pound.

Riot police clash with Lebanese protesters in Beirut, injuries reported
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 18 October 2019
In the second day of mass protests across Lebanon against the government’s handling of an economic crisis, demonstrators in downtown district of Beirut clashed on Friday evening with riot police who fired tear gas and used water cannon to disperse them. Protesters also set tires ablaze and blocked some of the main entrances to the capital, setting up barriers in the streets of downtown Beirut. An Al Arabiya correspondent reported injuries among the security forces personnel, while some protesters vandalized shops and cars parked in the area. Security forces detained some protesters in central Beirut, according to Reuters witnesses. In the vicinity of the presidential palace in Baadba, east of the capital, protesters clashed with security forces as they tried to reach the palace. Road blocking continued in different Lebanese regions. No political leader, Muslim or Christian, was spared the protesters’ wrath. The protesters’ chants called for leaders including President Michel Aoun, Hariri and parliament speaker Nabih Berri to step down. The mood was a mixture of rage, defiance and hope. As night fell, crowds waving Lebanese flags marched and drove through the streets with patriotic music blaring from loudspeakers while shouting: “Our demands are one, our objective is one: the people want the downfall of the regime,” Reuters reported. Some protesters, including men in black hoods, used iron bars to smash store fronts in the posh downtown district of Beirut. The Interior and Municipalities Minister, Raya al-Hassan, implored protesters to avoid vandalizing public property, according to the Lebanese national news agency (NNA). “I reiterate to all citizens participating in the ongoing protests that the freedom to demonstrate and to express their demands is a sacred right guaranteed by the constitution. In this vein, I urge all protesters not to vandalize public and private properties and to avoid blocking roads and traffic, as this fully contradicts with the ethics of Lebanese citizens,” al-Hassan said via Twitter. The unrest lead Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri to issue a warning in a speech addressed to the nation, saying that his “partners in the government” had 72 hours to show that they are serious about reforms, or he will take a different approach. Meanwhile, the embassies of Kuwait, Egypt, the US, and Saudi Arabia in Lebanon have asked their citizens on Friday to avoid crowds amid protests against the country’s government. The United Nations urged all sides to refrain from activities that could lead to increased tensions and violence.

2 Dead, 6 Hurt as Ahdab Bodyguards Open Fire at Tripoli Demo
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Two protesters were killed and six others were wounded when bodyguards of ex-MP Mosbah al-Ahdab opened fire during an anti-government demo in the northern city of Tripoli, media reports said. The violence erupted after the protesters rejected Ahdab’s participation in their rally, pelting him with bottles.
The bodyguards opened fire to secure the ex-MP’s departure from the area. Angry protesters later vandalized the offices of a company owned by Ahdab before heading to his residence which was secured by army troops. One of the bodyguards who opened fire has since been arrested. The Tripoli demo was part of the sweeping anti-government protests that are engulfing the country.

2 Dead, Dozens Hurt and Most Roads Blocked as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 18/2019
Security forces fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of protesters in Beirut early Friday after they tried to push through security barriers around the government headquarters amid some of the largest demonstrations the country has seen in years. The riots left two people dead and dozens wounded. The protests erupted over the government's plan to impose new taxes during a severe economic crisis, with people taking their anger out on politicians they accuse of corruption and decades of mismanagement.
The protests started with a few dozen people gathering in central Beirut over the imposition of a 20-cent daily fee on messaging applications, including WhatsApp. They quickly escalated into some of the biggest demonstrations since an uprising over a garbage crisis in 2015, with thousands of people taking part. People gathered near the government headquarters and parliament building where riot police were deployed, chanting: "Revolution!" and "Thieves!" — the latter a reference to widespread corruption in a country that has one of the highest debt loads in the world. Some protesters threw stones, shoes and water bottles at security forces and scuffled with police. Security forces said at least 60 of its members were injured in the clashes. Protesters were also injured.
State-run National News Agency said two foreign workers choked to death when fire was set in a building where they were sleeping in downtown Beirut. George Kittaneh, the head of the Lebanese Red Cross, said 22 people fainted and were taken to a hospital while 70 were treated on the spot. Police showed restraint as they were pelted with stones for several hours, firing volleys of tear gas only after protesters broke through the first security barrier near the government house. Police chased protesters through the streets of Beirut's commercial district through the night. The protests could plunge Lebanon into a political crisis with unpredictable repercussions for the economy which has been in steady decline. Some of the protesters said they would stay in the streets until the government resigns.
"The government is trying to help Lebanese citizens avoid a collapse," Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan, who ruled out the possibility of a Cabinet resignation, told the Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen TV. "If another government is formed it will take the same measures."Protesters closed major intersections with burning tires and garbage containers, causing traffic jams. As the protests escalated, the minister of education declared that public and private schools and universities would close Friday. Years of regional turmoil — worsened by an influx of 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2011 — are catching up with the small Arab country. Lebanon has the third-highest debt level in the world, currently standing at about $86 billion, or 150% of its gross domestic product.
"We refuse what's happening in Lebanon... The failure of our government to do at least the minimum ... has given us no other choice than to take the streets," said writer and director Lucien Bourjeily.
"They are putting more and more taxes on us even though we can't take any more taxes," he said. When the motorcade of Education Minister Akram Shhehayyeb padded through downtown Beirut, protesters punched and kicked the cars. One bodyguard jumped out of an SUV and fired an automatic rifle into the air. ShehayYeb rushed out of his car and pushed the guard away and prevented him from shooting again. No one was hurt in the incident.
Protesters also closed roads in other parts of Lebanon, including the northern city of Tripoli, Tyre in the south and Baalbek in the northeast.
The government is discussing the 2020 budget, and new taxes have been proposed, including on tobacco, gasoline and some social media telecommunication software such as WhatsApp.
Telecommunications Minister MohamMed Choucair appeared on TV after the protests began and said Prime Minister Saad Hariri has asked him to drop the proposed tax on WhatsApp.
As protests continued, demonstrators clashed briefly with riot police outside the government headquarters, an Ottoman-era compound known as the Grand Serial.
"We have no jobs, we have money and we have no future," one protester screamed. International donors have been demanding that Lebanon implement economic changes in order to get loans and grants pledged at the CEDRE economic conference in Paris in April 2018. International donors pledged $11 billion for Lebanon but they sought to ensure the money is well spent in the corruption-plagued country.
Despite tens of billions of dollars spent since the 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Lebanon still has crumbling infrastructure including daily electricity cuts, trash piles in the streets and often sporadic, limited water supplies from the state-owned water company. There are concerns over the country's financial stability as well. Earlier this month, the local currency reached 1,650 Lebanese pounds to the dollar at exchange shops after it had been stable at 1,500 since 1997.

Hariri Gives Parties 3 Days to Back His Reforms, Says Obstacles Put in His Way
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday gave the country’s political parties a 72-hour ultimatum to back his reform agenda, in the face of unprecedented massive protests that have brought the country to a standstill. “The country is going through an unprecedented situation. The pain of the Lebanese is real and I support every peaceful protest,” Hariri said in an address to the nation. "I'm setting a very short deadline. Either our partners in the coalition government give a clear, decisive and final response to convince me, the Lebanese people and the international community... that everyone has decided on reforms, or I will have something else to say," he added, suggesting that he might step down. “I do not regret the political settlement, because my duty was to protect the country,” the PM said. Commenting on the sweeping anti-government protests, some of which have turned violent, Hariri said anger is “a natural response to the political performance in Lebanon and the obstruction of the state's work.”“All kinds of obstacles were put in the way of all the reform efforts that I proposed,” the premier lamented. He said the “real solution” is to “boost the country's revenues through restoring the economy's growth.”“Reforms do not stand for imposing taxes,” he noted. “What's important is how to address this situation and find solutions,” he said, adding that for three years now he has been trying to “address the reasons behind the people's pain.”

Aoun and Hariri Call Off Cabinet Session, PM to Address Nation
Naharnet/October 18/2019
President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday called off a cabinet session scheduled for the afternoon amid massive protests across the country over government plans to hike taxes. The cabinet session had been scheduled to be held at 2:00 pm at the Baabda Palace. The decision to convene cabinet in an emergency session had been taken following phone talks overnight between Aoun and Hariri after the protests escalated and turned violent in some regions. The protests, the biggest in recent years, have left two people dead and dozens injured while most roads in the country have been blocked.
Hariri's office meanwhile announced that the premier will address the nation from his office at the Grand Serail at 6:00 pm.

Bassil Warns of 'Strife', Says Rival Political Parties Exploiting Protests
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Friday warned that the ongoing mass protests might descend into “chaos” and “civil strife,” as he lamented that some political parties are exploiting the demos to topple the presidency, the government and the parliament.
“What happened is the result of accumulating crises and failures,” Bassil said in a televised address from the Baabda Palace after meeting with President Michel Aoun. “What’s happening may be a chance and it also may turn into a big disaster and might plunge us into chaos and strife,” Bassil warned.
“Some domestic parties are exploiting the honest popular protests to achieve their goals of toppling the presidency, the government and the parliament,” Bassil added, in a possible reference to the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Kataeb Party.
Noting that “people have the right to demonstrate,” Bassil said that Prime Minister Saad Hariri is “ready for reform,” Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is “standing by us” and Speaker Nabih Berri is “keen on the Baabda economic paper.”“It is enough to show the people that we are serious,” he added.
“I'm willing to ask our ministers and MPs to lift their immunity and bank secrecy,” he suggested. Pointing out that there is still “a rescue opportunity within a few days” and “without empty promises,” Bassil said the government parties “must meet and work despite the presence of the people on the streets.”
Bassil also warned that the alternative to the current government is “ambiguous” and “might be much worse than the current situation, especially in the absence of a government,” cautioning that a “known and unknown fifth column” might infiltrate the protests and trigger “chaos” and “strife.”“What's happening on the streets is not targeted against us; it is rather in harmony with our demands,” he said. “The coming will be worse unless things are addressed,” Bassil warned, noting that unrest could carry with it a financial meltdown and a currency devaluation.

Jumblat Calls on PSP to Stage Peaceful Protests
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Friday called on his party to take part in the massive anti-government protests in the country. “Through its strongman, the presidential tenure is trying to put the blame on others, after having impeded all the possible reform initiatives, against which he incited through all available means,” Jumblat tweeted. “I call on comrades and supporters to stage calm and peaceful protests against this presidential tenure, which has ruined everything and monopolized everything,” Jumblat said. “We will act in our regions in order not to stir sensitivities,” he noted. PSP official Zafer Nasser had earlier said that the PSP will take part in protests as of this afternoon after “the new presidential tenure failed to achieve the promised reform.”

Geagea Urges Hariri to Resign, Calls on LF to Join Protests
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday called on Prime Minister Saad Hariri to announce the government’s resignation, amid some of the biggest protests that the country has witnessed in years. “I address a sincere call to PM Saad Hariri for the resignation of this government in light of its catastrophic failure in stopping the deterioration of the economic and living situations in the country which has plunged us into the current state,” Geagea said in a statement. “I know the size of the efforts that PM Hariri exerted to address the situation, but the ministerial majority, unfortunately, was in another place,” Geagea added. “The best that PM Hariri can offer in these critical and difficult moments is submitting the resignation of this government to pave the way for the formation of another totally different and new government that can lead the process of the desired economic rise in the country,” the LF leader went on to say.
Geagea later called on all LF members and supporters to "take part in the ongoing popular protests according to the approach and atmosphere of these protests, which means without party slogans or flags."

AMAL Warns 'Suspicious Elements' May Infiltrate Protests
Naharnet/October 18/2019
The AMAL Movement said Friday that the popular protests that have engulfed the country are rightful and legitimate but warned that “suspicious elements” might infiltrate the demonstrations. “We in the AMAL Movement stand by the legitimate demands that the movement had called for realizing on several occasions, whether during the drafting of the state budget or in terms of the implementation of the reform paper,” a statement said. “The movement has always been against imposing taxes and fees on citizens, especially low-income citizens,” the statement added. “Based on our principled stance on preserving people’s rights, the AMAL Movement calls for being vigilant against the infiltration of suspicious elements with the aim of deviating the protests from their right course,” it said.

Kataeb party leader MP Sami Gemayel Hails ‘Uprising,’ Calls for Early Legislative Elections, Govt. Resignation
Naharnet/October 18/2019
Kataeb party leader MP Sami Gemayel on Friday hailed Lebanon’s “uprising” as thousands of protesters thronged the streets calling for the government's resignation, Gemayel said a statement released by his office. Gemayel said the current government must “resign” and that a government of “specialists” must replace it. He also called for early parliamentary elections. “We told you that the Lebanese people are in anger, and urged you to leave with your own will but you chose to be expelled. I call upon all the Lebanese including members and friends of Kataeb to carry on with their protests,” said Gemayel. “There is no room for fatigue, we will not let them stand in the way of the uprising, we will all stand firm under the banner of the Lebanese flag until the goal is achieved,” he added. “The demands are crystal clear. We demand the immediate resignation of the government and the formation of a government of specialists to be tasked with saving the economic and living situation, and the preparation for early parliamentary elections. The Lebanese today have withdrawn their trust from the political class,” he concluded.

Former PMs Stand in Solidarity with Hariri
Naharnet/October 18/2019
As thousands of demonstrators thronged the streets in Lebanon calling for the government's resignation, ex-PMs Najib Miqati, Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam issued the following joint statement: Lebanon entered a delicate turning point amid a looming political crisis and an understandable popular anger as a result of the economic crisis and stifling living conditions. It is noteworthy to say that the current happenings were preceded by escalation of positions mainly by key participants in power who raised the ceiling of confrontation through direct incitement. It has become evident that some attempt to evade responsibility for the latest developments, throwing all the blame on the Prime Minister. This approach coincides with repeated constitutional violations primarily aimed at the premiership’s position and the role of the prime minister and the council of ministers combined. From our national and political position as former PMs we declare: First: Absolute understanding of the popular movement which expresses a cry of soreness from the suffocating crises in Lebanon, and we call on all citizens to maintain peaceful action without being dragged into reactions that offend the noble slogans they express. Second: We appeal to all political leaders to be aware of the delicate situation and not launch unnecessary escalatory positions, and we urge them to cooperate to address the current crises and meet the sufferings of citizens. Third: Full solidarity with PM Saad Hariri in this ordeal and support for any position he takes to overcome the crisis. Any attempts to make him alone shoulder the blame for the crises are totally rejected. Although the PM is head of the executive authority, but the majority of parties represented in the Cabinet are required morally required to take part in finding a solution. We must also abide by the provisions of the Constitution in terms of powers and tasks, without oversteeping or violating them for the sake of imposing certain political approaches.

Lebanon in lock down as protesters demand new government
Jacob Boswall, Special to Al Arabiya English/Friday, 18 October 2019
Protesters have called on the Lebanese government to resign after unpopular new tax proposals sparked two days of mass demonstrations. The protests are of unprecedented nature in the mediterranean country, with people of all sects calling for the same demands and taking on the established political order.
One protester died in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, after the bodyguards of a former lawmaker allegedly fired at a demonstration to disperse the protesters, with local media saying that the army arrested one of the shooters. Throughout Thursday night, protesters in Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square burned anything they could lay their hands on including advertising billboards, construction material, tires and trees. Some protesters removed street signs and used them as battering rams against advertising units and shop fronts while young men on motorcycles dodged broken glass to feed the blaze with fresh bottles of gasoline. The anarchic scenes in central Beirut continued throughout Friday, as young men declared that the protests would not end until the government resigned. “This is not the first protest in Beirut. But it could be the first step of a movement because today all the sects have come out into the streets: Muslim, Christian, Druze. We are all striking with one fist,” 28 year old Hasan from Beirut told Al Arabiya English. People of all religious and political stripes attended the protests, unified in their anger toward the country’s precarious economic situation and widespread corruption among the political class. Similar unrest has spread across the country, with thousands gathering in Tripoli’s main square according to videos shared on social media. Elsewhere in Beirut protesters blocked major roads and burned trash. Many Beirutis stayed at home, fearing damage to their cars and personal safety.
Economic anger
Anger has been building for weeks over an alleged shortage of US dollars within Lebanon’s highly dollarized economy. The unofficial exchange rate has soared above the authorized trading band of LBP 1,501-1,514 to the dollar, causing fears of bread and fuel shortages. “Last month the dollar crisis, last week the fuel crisis and the bread crisis. The Lebanese people can no longer take it,” said Mohammed, a chef from North Lebanon’s rural Dinnieh. Mohammed was forced to move to Beirut to find a job. He struggles to make enough money to pay rent in a city where 25 percent of apartments built since 1996 are empty. “Now the telecommunications ministry comes out and says we are going to charge you for Whatsapp,” he continued. At a Cabinet session Thursday, Lebanese ministers approved an unpopular per day fee for using internet-based phone calls over services like WhatsApp. The government is also considering raising value-added tax as part of the 2020 austerity budget, in an attempt to bring Lebanon’s budget deficit to 7 percent of GDP in 2020. Lebanon has the third highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, at around 150 percent. International credit rating agency Fitch downgraded Lebanon’s economy in August to CCC, suggesting that the country will only be able to pay back its debts under favorable conditions. The proposed Whatsapp tax was enough to spark nationwide protests; and yet Whatsapp and other social media platforms such as Facebook helped galvanize protesters, some of whom were as young as 15. “It is revolution across all of Lebanon. It is not the first time it has happened, but this time it is on a bigger scale. The country is trash and the wages are rubbish,” said one bare-chested teenager.
Demanding a new government
The protests represent a major challenge to Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government, who cancelled the scheduled Friday cabinet meeting in response to the protests. Hariri is set to speak later this evening. Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Joumblatt, a historical ally of Hariri, has called on his supporters to “peacefully” join the protests against the Lebanese government, advising PSP members to protest within the party’s areas to “avoid sensitivities.” Relations between the two party leaders have recently been strained, after a Twitter spat over the summer. A common demand by demonstrators is a rerun of last year’s parliamentary elections. “The MPs we voted to power haven’t done anything for us. I don’t have faith in a single MP… wherever there is money, they take it. Even the taxes we pay go into their pockets not into the state. If it went to the state, Lebanon would be in excellent health,” continued Mohammed. “In the North [of Lebanon] and Akkar, there is endless poverty. But politicians in the North are the richest in Lebanon … Now we want to elect a new government who have the interests of the country in their hearts.”

Kuwait, Egypt, US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain issue warnings to citizens in Lebanon
Reuters, Dubai/Friday, 18 October 2019
The embassies of Kuwait, Egypt, the US, and Saudi Arabia in Lebanon have asked their citizens on Friday to avoid crowds amid protests against the country’s government. “The embassy also calls on citizens currently in Lebanon to take utmost care and stay away from crowds and demonstrations,” the Kuwaiti Embassy said in its tweet. "The embassy calls on all Egyptian citizens in Lebanon to avoid the areas of gatherings and protests, to be careful in their movements and to abide by the instructions of the Lebanese authorities in this regard," Egyptian state news agency MENA said. Meanwhile, due to the road closures and unrest, the US Embassy has temporarily restricted off-compound movement of its personnel and instructed its citizens in the country to avoid crowds and areas of demonstration. Saudi Arabia also instructed its citizens to quickly communicate with it for preparations to leave Lebanon. Bahrain foreign ministry called on its citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately, the ministry said in a tweet..Protesters across Lebanon blocked roads with burning tires on Friday and thousands marched in Beirut, calling on the government to resign over an economic crisis.

Hizbullah Official: Presidency, Govt. and Hizbullah Not to Blame for Current Crisis
Naharnet/October 18/2019
A senior Hizbullah official on Friday announced that the incumbent presidency and government as well as Hizbullah cannot be blamed for the country’s current economic crisis, as massive and unprecedented protests engulfed the entire country. “The spontaneous popular protests that Lebanon is witnessing reflect the magnitude of the living conditions crisis that the people are suffering,” Sheikh Ali Daamoush, the deputy head of Hizbullah’s executive council, said. “We have continuously warned that the wrong economic policies and the imposition of more taxes and burdens on citizens would lead to a popular explosion,” Daamoush added during a Friday prayer sermon. “People are expressing their plight and pain and their scream must be heeded, but the protests must remain peaceful and public and private properties should not be attacked,” Daamoush urged. He added: “The crisis is an accumulated crisis that the incumbent presidency and government are not responsible for but rather all the previous presidencies and the successive governments.”Daamoush also said that Hizbullah must not be held responsible, noting that his party has “rejected all forms of taxes on the poor and the middle class and raised the banner of combating corruption.” “It is unacceptable to hold it responsible for measures that it has rejected and tried to prevent,” the Hizbullah official went on to say.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 18-19/2019
Donald Trump says Erdogan told him he wants northern Syria cease-fire to work
President Donald Trump said Friday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had assured him that he wants the “cease-fire” with Kurdish militants in northern Syria to work.
Arab News/October 18, 2019
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump said Friday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had assured him that he wants the “cease-fire” with Kurdish militants in northern Syria to work. Trump, in a series of tweets, said he had spoken to Erdogan and “he very much wants the cease-fire, or pause, to work. “Likewise, the Kurds want it, and the ultimate solution, to happen,” the US president said. “There is good will on both sides & a really good chance for success,” he said. “The US has secured the Oil, & the Daesh Fighters are double secured by Kurds & Turkey.”Trump also said that “some” European countries, which he did not name, “are now willing, for the first time, to take the (Daesh group) Fighters that came from their nations.”“This is good news, but should have been done after WE captured them,” he said. “Anyway, big progress being made!!!!“Trump also tweeted “DEFEAT TERRORISM!” in all capital letters in response to a tweet by Erdogan saying “Mr. President, many more lives will be saved when we defeat terrorism, which is humanity’s arch enemy.”Earlier Friday, Erdogan warned that Ankara would resume military operations against Kurdish forces in Syria if they did not withdraw from a “safe zone” along the Turkey-Syria border. Turkey has agreed to suspend its offensive for five days in northern Syria while Kurdish fighters withdraw from the area, after high-stake talks with US Vice President Mike Pence in Ankara.'

Trump says ‘pause’ in fighting in northeast Syria is back on
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 18 October 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that a five-day ceasefire along the Syrian-Turkish border had resumed, despite shelling and machine-gun fire earlier on Friday. “There was some sniper fire this morning. There was mortar fire this morning. That was eliminated quickly. And they’re back to the full pause,” Trump told reporters. The United States and Turkey announced on Thursday they had agreed to the pause in Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria to let the Kurdish-led SDF militia, forces long allied with Washington, withdraw from an area controlled by Turkish forces.

Erdogan Says Will Restart Syria Operation Tuesday Evening if Deal Not Respected
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 18/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Friday warned Turkey would restart its operation against Kurdish forces in Syria on Tuesday evening if they do not withdraw from a "safe zone". "If the promises are kept until Tuesday evening, the safe zone issue will be resolved. If it fails, the operation... will start the minute 120 hours are over," Erdogan told reporters during a briefing in Istanbul. Turkey agreed after talks with the US Thursday to suspend its offensive in northern Syria while Kurdish fighters withdraw from the area.

Turkey plans presence across northeast Syria, Erdogan says
Reuters, Istanbul/Friday, 18 October 2019
Turkey will set up a dozen observation posts across northeast Syria, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday, insisting that a planned “safe zone” will extend much further than US officials said was covered under a fragile ceasefire deal.
Less than 24 hours after he agreed the five-day truce to allow Kurdish forces time to pull back from Turkey’s cross border assault, Erdogan underlined Ankara’s continued ambition to establish a presence along 300 miles of territory inside Syria. On the border itself shelling could be heard near the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain on Friday morning despite Thursday’s deal, and a spokesman for the Kurdish-led forces said Turkey was violating the ceasefire, hitting civilian targets in the town. But Reuters journalists at the border said the bombardment subsided around mid-morning and a US official said most of the fighting had stopped, although it would “take time for things to completely quiet down.”US President Donald Trump said on Friday he had spoken with Erdogan who told him there had been some “minor” sniper and mortar fire in northeastern Syria despite the truce, but that it had been quickly eliminated. “He very much wants the ceasefire, or pause, to work,” Trump said in a post on Twitter. “Likewise, the Kurds want it, and the ultimate solution, to happen.”
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs described the situation at “reportedly calm in most areas, with the exception of Ras al-Ain, where shelling and gunfire continued to be reported earlier today,” UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters in New York. The truce, announced by US Vice President Mike Pence after talks in Ankara with Erdogan, sets out a five-day pause to let the Kurdish-led SDF militia pull out of the Turkish “safe zone.” The deal was aimed at easing a crisis that saw Trump order a hasty and unexpected US retreat, which his critics say amounted to abandoning loyal Kurdish allies that fought for years alongside US troops against ISIS.
Turkey’s offensive created a new humanitarian crisis in Syria with 200,000 civilians taking flight, according to Red Cross estimates. It also prompted a security alert over thousands of ISIS fighters held in Kurdish jails.
Trump has praised Thursday’s deal, saying it would save “millions of lives.” Turkey cast it as a victory in its campaign to control territory more than 30 km (around 20 miles) deep into Syria and drive out Kurdish fighters from the YPG, the SDF’s main Kurdish component. “As of now, the 120-hour period is on. In this 120-hour period, the terrorist organization, the YPG, will leave the area we identified as a safe zone,” Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul. The safe zone would be 32 km deep, and run “440 km from the very west to the east”, he said. But the US special envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, said the accord covered a smaller area where Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel allies were fighting, between two border towns of Ras al Ain and Tel Abyad, just 120 km away. Speaking to journalists later on Friday, Erdogan said Turkey plans to set up 12 observation posts in northeast Syria. A map of the region showed the planned posts stretching from the Iraq border in the east to the Euphrates river 300 miles to the west.
Russia, Iran fill vacuum
With the United States pulling its entire 1,000-strong contingent from northern Syria, the extent of Turkey’s ambitions is likely to be determined by Russia and Iran, filling the vacuum created by the US retreat. The government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Moscow and Tehran, has already taken up positions in territory formerly protected by Washington, invited by the Kurds.Jeffrey acknowledged that Turkey was now negotiating with Moscow and Damascus over control of areas that Washington was vacating and were not covered by the US-Turkish truce pact. “As you know we have a very convoluted situation now with Russian, Syrian army, Turkish, American, SDF and some Daesh (ISIS) elements all floating around in a very wild way,” Jeffrey said. “Now, the Turks have their own discussions going on with the Russians and the Syrians in other areas of the northeast and in Manbij to the west of the Euphrates. Whether they incorporate that later into a Turkish-controlled safe zone, it was not discussed in any detail.”
Lifting sanctions?
The joint US-Turkish statement released after Thursday’s talks said Washington and Ankara would cooperate on handling ISIS fighters and family members held in prisons and camps - an important international concern. Pence said US sanctions imposed on Tuesday would be lifted once the ceasefire became permanent. In Washington, US senators who have criticized the Trump administration for failing to prevent the Turkish assault in the first place said they would press ahead with legislation to impose sanctions against Turkey, a NATO ally. The Turkish assault began after Trump moved US troops out of the way following an Oct. 6 phone call with Erdogan. Turkey says the “safe zone” would make room to settle up to 2 million Syrian war refugees - roughly half the number it is currently hosting - and would push back the YPG militia, which Ankara deems a terrorist group due to its links to Kurdish insurgents in southeast Turkey.

Turkish air strike kills five civilians in northeast Syria: Monitor
Beirut, AFP/Friday, 18 October 2019
A Turkish air strike on a village near the battleground border town of Ras al-Ain in northeastern Syria killed five civilians on Friday, a war monitor said. “Five civilians were killed in Turkish air strikes on the village of Bab al-Kheir, east of Ras al-Ain,” Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said.

Erdogan denies ongoing clashes in northeast Syria after ceasefire
Al Arabiya English, Reuters/Friday, 18 October 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denied on Friday the presence of ongoing clashes in northeastern Syria a day after Turkey agreed with the United States to pause its offensive in Syria for five days to let Kurdish-led forces withdraw. A Reuters correspondent and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on shelling and gunfire resonating in northeast Syria’s Ras al-Ain city earlier on Friday. Erdogan also said the “safe zone” will stretch 440 km along the Syrian-Turkish border with an eastern edge on the border with Iraq and added that a depth of 32 km was agreed on with the United States.
The President added that Turkey will continue its offensive into northeast Syria more rapidly than before if the agreement is not fully implemented. Erdogan also told journalists that it was not a problem for Turkey if Syrian government forces, backed by Russia, were to enter areas cleared of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, adding that Ankara had no intention to stay in areas under its control in northern Syria. He also said he had informed US President Donald Trump about the offensive in a phone call a day before launching it, adding that “what is necessary will be done when the time is right” about a letter from Trump in which he told Erdogan to not be a “fool” and “tough guy.”
White House: Ceasefire “takes time”
The ceasefire was agreed on Thursday after talks between US Vice President Mike Pence and Erdogan in Ankara. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said that they are willing to abide by the ceasefire. Asked about the fighting in the region despite the pause agreement, White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham told Fox News in an interview that the US delegation was “successful in a ceasefire, but that takes time,” adding that she would not discuss operations on the ground. As fighting continued on Friday, Amensty International accused Turkish forces and Syrian rebel allies of committing “war crimes,” including summary executions, during their offensive.

Kurdish mayors replaced in Turkey in crackdown on criticism of Syria assault
Reuters, Turkey/Friday, 18 October 2019
Turkey replaced the mayors of a Kurdish-majority town in its southeast with a state official, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) said, amid a crackdown at home on criticism of Ankara’s offensive in Syria. The HDP said five of its co-mayors in the southeastern Kurdish-majority towns of Hakkari, Yuksekova and Nusaybin, had been jailed pending trial on Thursday. Two other co-mayors in the district of Ercis were detained earlier this week and remain in custody, it said. Turkey has launched a crackdown against dissent in its majority Kurdish areas following its assault against Kurdish-controlled parts of neighboring Syria. Protests have been broken up with tear gas and scores of people have been arrested for criticizing the military campaign online. The HDP governs many cities in the mainly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. It typically appoints one male and one female co-mayor to promote gender equality. Semire Nergiz and Ferhat Kut, co-mayors of Nusaybin, were accused of being members of a terrorist organization and replaced by a state-appointed trustee on Friday, the HDP said. Yuksekova co-mayors Remziye Yasar and Irfan Sari were jailed for their interviews, columns and social media posts. It was not immediately clear what the Hakkari mayor Cihan Kahraman was accused of. The state-owned Anadolu news agency said on Friday local administrators had been appointed to replace mayors in Yuksekova and Hakkari. Nusaybin is a town on the Syrian border in the southeastern Mardin province, while Hakkari and Yuksekova are situated on the border with Iran. Nusaybin has been the target of cross-border attacks during the operation, with a mortar and rocket attack by Kurdish militants last week killing eight people and wounding 35 others. Friday’s moves came just hours after Turkey agreed with the United States to pause its offensive in Syria for five days to allow Kurdish forces to withdraw from a planned “safe zone” in Syria’s northeast. While most of Turkey’s opposition parties have backed the offensive against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, the HDP has called for it to stop, describing it as an “invasion attempt.” HDP says the operation was an attempt by the government to drum up support amid declining public backing. The former co-leaders of the pro-Kurdish HDP have both been jailed since 2016 on terrorism charges, with several other prominent members accused of supporting terrorism over what the government says are links to the banned PKK insurgent movement. The HDP denies supporting the PKK.

European, US lawmakers jointly condemn Turkey invasion
AFP, Washington/Friday, 18 October 2019
European and US lawmakers united on Friday in condemnation of Turkey’s invasion of Syria and President Donald Trump’s troop withdrawal from the country, warning it would trigger a “resurgence of terrorism.”The chairs of foreign affairs committees in the British, French, German, and European parliaments and the US House of Representatives assailed the Turkish operation as a “military aggression” and violation of international law. “We... jointly condemn in the strongest terms the Turkish military offensive in northeastern Syria,” said the lawmakers who include Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British House of Commons, and Eliot Engel who heads the US House Foreign Affairs Committee. Norbert Rottgen of the German Bundestag, Marielle de Sarnez of the French National Assembly, and the European Parliament’s David McAllister also signed on. Representing voices across the political spectrum, they said they “unite across parties and nationalities to demonstrate our commitment to our common values.”The lawmakers directly criticized Trump for his sudden withdrawal of US forces, saying they “deeply regret” the desertion of Kurdish forces who were partners in the fight against ISIS extremists. “We consider the abandonment of the Syrian Kurds to be wrong,” the lawmakers said, adding that such global coalition partners “massively contributed to the successful yet unfinished fight against (ISIS) in Syria and incurred heavy losses by doing so.”The withdrawal “marks another landmark in the change of American foreign policy in the Near and Middle East,” they said, warning that the turmoil caused by Turkey’s offensive “may contribute to a resurgence of terrorism” and undermines peacekeeping efforts. The lawmakers also called on the European Union to launch a conflict resolution effort. The statement came as a US-brokered ceasefire between Turkish and Kurdish forces appeared to crumble, with Turkish air strikes and mortar fire by its Syrian proxies killing 14 civilians, according to a war monitor.

France’s Macron criticizes NATO reaction over Turkish offensive
Reuters, AFP, Brussels/Saturday, 19 October 2019
France’s president on Friday bemoaned Turkey’s offensive into northern Syria as “madness” and decried the North Atlantic Organization’s (NATO) inability to react to the assault as a “serious mistake.” “I consider what’s happened in the last few days as a serious mistake from the West and NATO in the region and it weakens our credibility to find partners on the ground who will be by our side thinking they are protected in the long-term and so that raises questions on how NATO functions,” Emmanuel Macron told reporters after a European Council summit in Brussels. Macron said he had discovered the US decision to withdrawal from northern Syria through Twitter and that, coupled with Ankara’s unilateral offensive, it was making Europe a junior ally in the Middle East. “I understood that we were in NATO, that the United States and Turkey were in NATO,” Macron told reporters at an EU summit. “Like everyone else, I learned by tweet that the United States had decided to withdraw its troops.”Macron added that he, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel would use a NATO summit in London in December to confront the Turkish president over the operation against Kurdish forces. “It’s important to meet and coordinate between the three Europeans and Turkey,” he said. “We need to see where Turkey is going and how to bring it back to a reasonable position which makes it possible to elaborate its internal security with the respect of our agenda and the correct solidarity at the heart of NATO.”

Iraqi govt. source challenges IRGC’s story of arrest of Iranian dissident
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 18 October 2019Text size A A A
An Iraqi government source has challenged the story of the arrest of an Iranian opposition journalist put forward by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Ruhollah Zam, who Iran’s IRGC claimed to have captured in a “complex operation,” was in fact arrested by Iraqi intelligence services in Baghdad and handed over to Iran, according to an Iraqi government source cited by media reports. The IRGC claimed on Monday that it arrested opposition figure Zam, who ran “counter-revolutionary” Telegram channel Amadnews, in a “sophisticated and professional operation.”
The statement did not say when or where he was arrested, but hours later, state-run TV showed Zam saying that he is full of “regret” for his opposition to the Islamic Republic. Media reports have now surfaced that challenge the IRGC’s account of the events.
Zam was arrested by Iraqi intelligence services – not the IRGC – shortly after landing in Baghdad on Saturday and later handed over to Iran, according to the Persian services of Al Arabiya, the BBC and the Independent, who based their reports on an “informed source in the Iraqi government.”
Zam was kept with the Iraqi intelligence service for over a day and then handed over to Iran based on an extradition agreement signed between the two countries in 2011, said the source.
Zam’s wife Mahsa Razani confirmed that her husband had flown to Iraq. She had not heard from him for a day, and then later had a phone conversation with him where he did not speak “normally,” she told the BBC Persian.
Zam was among thousands arrested during the 2009 Iranian presidential elections protests. He fled the country after being released and was granted political asylum in France. Zam’s father is cleric Mohammad-Ali Zam, a reformist politician who served in senior government positions in the 1980s and 1990s.
According to the Iraqi source, when the plane carrying Zam landed in Baghdad on Saturday, he was not allowed to get off the plane. Zam was arrested at 03:30 AM local time and was handed over to the Iranian authorities over a day later, the source added.
Zam was transferred to Iran by land, according to the source. The Iraqi intelligence service had no long-term knowledge of any plan to arrest Zam and received a last-minute request to arrest Zam from the Iranians – presumably in line with the extradition agreement – on Thursday, October 11.
Zam was interrogated by Iranians after his arrest in Iraq, the source added. Zam’s channel on messenger app Telegram attracted a lot of attention for covering the anti-regime protests that broke out in Iran between December 2017 and January 2018 in over 100 cities.

US ground troops will not enforce Syria safe zone, says defense secretary
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 18 October 2019
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday that no US troops will take part in enforcing the so-called safe zone in northern Syria and the United States “is continuing our deliberate withdrawal from northeastern Syria.”Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan earlier on Friday said Turkey will set up a dozen observation posts across northeast Syria, insisting that a planned “safe zone” will extend much further than US officials said was covered under a fragile ceasefire deal. The truce, announced by US Vice President Mike Pence after talks in Ankara with Erdogan, sets out a five-day pause to let the Kurdish-led SDF militia pull out of the Turkish “safe zone.” The deal was aimed at easing a crisis that saw President Donald Trump order a hasty and unexpected US retreat, which his critics say amounted to abandoning loyal Kurdish allies that fought for years alongside US troops against ISIS.
“No US ground forces will participate in the enforcement of the safe zone, however we will remain in communication with both Turkey and the SDF,” Esper told reporters, referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). He will be traveling to the Middle East and Brussels in the coming days to discuss issues including the future of counter-ISIS campaign. Esper said he had spoken with his Turkish counterpart on Friday and reiterated that Ankara must adhere to the ceasefire deal and ensure safety of people in areas controlled by Turkish forces. “Protecting religious and ethnic minorities in the region continues to be a focus for the administration. This ceasefire is a much needed step in protecting those vulnerable populations,” Esper said. He added that he reminded Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar of Turkey’s responsibility for maintaining security of the ISIS prisoners in areas affected by Turkey’s incursion. A US defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the United States would continue aerial surveillance in northeastern Syria to monitor prisons holding alleged ISIS militants.

Israeli guards kill Palestinian assailant in West Bank
AFP, Jerusalem/Saturday, 19 October 2019
Israeli security guards at a West Bank crossing into Israel shot dead a Palestinian assailant who ran at them with a knife on Friday, the Israeli defense ministry said. Civilian guards employed by the MOD Crossing Points Authority called on the man to stop but when he kept coming he was shot and killed, the ministry said in a statement. The incident took place just outside the occupied West Bank city of Tulkarem. The Palestinian health ministry confirmed that a man was killed by Israeli fire but did not immediately identify him.
Israeli troops injured 48 Palestinians
In clashes on Friday along the Gaza-Israel border, Israeli troops injured 48 Palestinians, 15 of whom were hit by live fire, the health ministry said earlier, without giving their condition. An Israeli military spokeswoman told AFP that around 4,500 Palestinians staged disturbances along the border fence, some throwing petrol bombs and explosive devices. “A number of suspects breached the fence in the north of the strip but they immediately went back into the strip,” she said in Hebrew. “Response was with riot control means in accordance with the rules of engagement,” she added. Palestinians have been gathering for weekly demonstrations at various points along the border of the blockaded territory since March 2018.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 18-19/2019
Debunking the myths over US withdrawal from Syria
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Over the present Syria crisis, precipitated by Donald Trump withdrawing around 1,000 US troops from the Syrian-Turkish border in the wake of Ankara’s threatened military lunge toward the Syrian Kurds, the usual American interventionist suspects have predictably decried the president’s actions. Like the mythical Chicken Little, the same US right-wing neoconservatives and Democratic hawks who precipitated the Iraq disaster now blithely tell us the sky is falling down.
Their first false argument is that Russia is now poised to dominate the Middle East as a result of the US withdrawal from northern Syria. Let us be clear — and this cannot be overstated — Russia has a gross domestic product the size of the state of Texas. By any political, economic, or demographic standard, Russia is a fading power, not a rising one.
Even regionally, Russia is not remotely a dominant player. Syria is the only country in the Middle East where Russia has a military base; in contrast, America has troops in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE. So it is nothing short of hysterical to say that, by increasing its role in peripheral Syria, Russia now dominates the region.
The second false argument is that, in withdrawing, the US is betraying its Kurdish allies. Here it is time for everyone to take a deep breath and grow up. It is certainly true that the Kurds were vital allies, working intimately with America in destroying Daesh’s supposed caliphate, taking 11,000 casualties while the US provided the logistics, air power, training and intelligence.
But this is international relations, where ever since the dawn of time foreign policy has been primarily based on a country’s interests. To pretend otherwise is simply to ignore the past 3,000 years of history. The Kurds helped the US because there was an obvious common interest in destroying Daesh. The Kurds also assisted American efforts in Syria because they were well-paid and supplied by the US to do so. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this — it is the way of the world. But to pretend that they did so out of some general love for the US, playing Butch Cassidy to the American Sundance Kid, is to think in terms of fairy tales.
All alliances are temporary and dissipate when the common interests that led to the entente in the first place fade away. This is what has happened over the past few weeks in Syria. Think of the counterfactual: Was Trump supposed to actively go to war with long-term NATO ally Turkey, a country that houses US nuclear weapons at its base in Incirlik, in order to stand by the Kurds? Of course not. And, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made crystal clear in his now infamous call with Trump, that amounts to the other American option. Rightly, Trump let US interests dictate his response.
The current developments are both a consequence of Turkey’s new neo-Ottoman emphasis on the Middle East, and Trump’s Jacksonian turn away from the region.
The third interventionist argument is that Daesh, in the midst of this country-wide chaos, will quickly reconstitute itself. In terms of re-establishing a physical caliphate in eastern Syria and western Iraq, the smashed Daesh fighters are simply in no position to do so. Well before Trump’s standing down on the Syrian border, Daesh morphed into primarily a terrorist threat, rather than amounting to a regional power player.
This is a real problem, but one that ought to be manageable by global policing and intelligence sharing. Daesh will surely strike again, but this is a second-order difficulty, one that has not materially changed as a result of Trump’s actions. Daesh’s over-hyped resurrection is also not a reason for the US to remain in Syria endlessly.
So if all this is what is not happening in Syria, what is happening? First, in terms of grand strategy, the US drawdown is yet another step on the road to it moving toward a more offshore, balancing role in the Middle East. It is staying in the region but in a more limited way as its attention turns to Asia, the region that in the coming years will contain much of the world’s political risk, but also much of its economic reward.
Second, and despite the cobbled-together cease-fire, the longstanding US-Turkish alliance is well and truly over. In erratically tactically acquiescing in the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, and then just as quickly censuring Erdogan, in the short run Trump finds himself in the worst of all political worlds: Hated by interventionists for giving way to Ankara, and distrusted by noninterventionists as he attempts to be tough with Turkey, long after the horse has left the stable.
The final nail in the coffin will be when the US removes the 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs from Turkey’s Incirlik base. Though they remain under the strict custody of US Air Force personnel, their (rightful) removal will signal what we all now know: Neither the US nor Turkey trusts the other over vital security matters. Strategically, this is both a consequence of Turkey’s new neo-Ottoman emphasis on the Middle East, and Trump’s Jacksonian turn away from the region. Ironically, as was true with the Kurdish alliance, bereft of common interests, Washington and Ankara are definitively going their own ways.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Modi and Xi convey message of cooperation
Michael Kugelman/Arab News/October 18, 2019
In the current era of international diplomacy, high-level summitry has become a very public spectacle, replete with pageantry and photo opportunities. Top leaders meet at beautiful venues; they exchange lovely gifts; offer effusive praise to each other; and, outside of some obligatory private discussions, the cameras never stop rolling — thereby enabling the international commentariat to scrutinize their every move and word.
Not surprisingly, this trend has coincided with the era of Donald Trump, a leader who relishes the theatrics and wall-to-wall media coverage afforded by such affairs.
The latest such summit took place this week between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Mamallapuram, an Indian town about 60 km from the megacity of Chennai. It was a follow-up to a similar event in the Chinese city of Wuhan last year.
There was, as expected, all kinds of pageantry. The two leaders drank coconut beverages, toured international heritage sites, and enjoyed sumptuous working dinners — all against a lovely beachfront backdrop on the southeastern coast of India.
However, we shouldn’t dismiss this Modi-Xi event as just another example of high-level diplomatic gimmickry. Indeed, any formal engagement between the leaders of the world’s two most populous nations should never be taken lightly.
In that regard, the main takeaway from the summit is that two of the world’s most powerful players, despite being strategic rivals and grappling with a longstanding border dispute, are making very real efforts to keep their relationship cordial. And that is a good thing, because the last thing the world needs right now is a conflict between the two Asian giants — or even the threat of one.
In the aftermath of the summit, there has been much talk of how little was done to address the tension points in India-China relations. Beijing opposed New Delhi’s move back in August to repeal the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, but the issue of Kashmir did not come up at the summit. New Delhi opposes Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) because the mammoth transport corridor project is expected to wend through disputed territory claimed by India. BRI was not an agenda point either. And the border dispute — the trigger for an India-China war in 1962 and a more recent standoff in 2017 — was not addressed in any meaningful way.
High-level summitry is not about delving into contentious issues — that is for leaders’ underlings to do in more unspectacular and private settings. Not surprisingly, the Modi-Xi exchange focused on underscoring the convergences in interests and shared goals of the India-China relationship. The two leaders emphasized their mutual concern about radicalization and terrorism. They spoke of the robust China-India trade partnership, and they agreed to launch a new high-level mechanism meant to address a trade deficit stacked in China’s favor. Significantly, an Indian Foreign Ministry statement released shortly after the summit stated that “both sides will prudently manage their differences and not allow differences on any issue to become disputes.”
One can justifiably dismiss all this as mere rhetoric. Still, rhetoric is important in international diplomacy because it showcases how countries wish to pitch their relationships to the rest of the world. Clearly, India and China want to prioritize the positive side of their partnership.
Rhetoric is important in international diplomacy because it showcases how countries wish to pitch their relationships to the rest of the world.
To be sure, Beijing and New Delhi are destined to be strategic rivals well into the future, with competition over everything from military modernization to the world’s raw materials. Additionally, China’s close ties to Pakistan, India’s bitter enemy, will limit prospects for India-China cooperation. Furthermore, New Delhi’s deepening security partnership with Washington — driven in great part by a shared desire to push back against Beijing’s growing clout in Asia — will be a constant tension point.
Yet India and China still find ways to partner on the world stage. Not only do they enjoy one of the world’s largest bilateral trade relationships (by volume), but they also work together in regional forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and in new and increasingly influential international economic institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as well as in emerging groupings such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The US, incidentally, is not a part of any of these entities.
Beijing and New Delhi also see eye to eye on many key foreign policy and geopolitical issues, from support for a negotiated settlement to the war in Afghanistan to full-throated endorsement of any and all efforts to expunge the Daesh terror group.
It is this spirit of joint engagement in a changing world order that Modi and Xi wished to convey, amid all the pageantry and flashiness, at their recent summit. And, in a world rife with bad news stories, such a simple yet positive message from two powerful global players is a very good thing indeed.
*Michael Kugelman is deputy director of the Asia Program and senior associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Twitter: @michaelkugelman

Mental illness sufferers need sympathetic local help
Asma I. Abdulmalik/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Close your eyes for a minute and imagine being in an empty room. The room is dark and the walls feel like they are closing in on you. You are sitting in a damp corner, hugging your legs tight. The world is a gloomy place; you are engulfed with a crashing wave of grief. The world does not understand you; your family does not understand you. Maybe they would be better off. Maybe the world would be better off without you.
It is often difficult to imagine that anyone would want to take their own life. You have probably known someone or heard of someone who has died by suicide, be it a member of your community, a loved one or a celebrity. You will wonder if there was anything you or anyone else could have done to prevent it. You will scrutinize all your moments with them to see if you possibly missed the signs.
Last week, the world observed Mental Illness Awareness Week to raise awareness of the various mental health conditions and provide support, assistance and care for sufferers. This year, the World Health Organization focused on suicide prevention. According to its website, somebody dies by suicide every 40 seconds. What compels someone to commit suicide? The reasons are many, and they are compound. Some mental illnesses can cause one to commit suicide, including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Other worldly conditions can be a factor, including bullying, traumatic stress, addictions, loss or fear, chronic pain and terminal conditions. However, one of the leading reasons that can drive someone to a state of hopelessness is severe depression.
Where you are and how you identify yourself often determines how you react and judge suicide. In Islam, the act of committing suicide is considered a grave sin. The Qur’an makes it very clear that human life is sacred: “And do not kill yourselves. Surely, God is most merciful to you” (Qur’an 4:29). One cannot take one’s life out of despair, calamity or any world-related problems. Muslims have to thus practice patience and look toward their faith.
In some cases in Islam, however, one’s mental capacity predetermines judgment. For example, a person in a Muslim society may develop a mental or physical illness or condition that affects his or her mental capacity so much that they do not know what they are saying or doing. In this situation, they are unaware of their actions and are thus not condemned.
It is my presumption to wonder if we as a society oversimplify the matter. Where most see it as binary, our religion is actually more nuanced, especially with the explanation above on when individuals have a mental illness. For starters, there is a wide spectrum of conditions, with some that do not necessarily reduce you to a mentally incapacitated state. The question is, when do we consider an individual mentally sound and who determines that — a religious or a medical professional?
To reach a state where someone considers taking their own life is very complex to understand and treat. People who die by suicide do not want to die, but to end their pain. It is thus very reductive to look at it through a single lens. Patients with mental illnesses and individuals who are going through the darkest periods of their lives require our compassion, support and help, not the threat of internal condemnation.
What we lack is basic information and services for those who are having or exhibiting suicidal behavior and wanting help.
I understand that many would argue that, if we did not have a harsh stance on suicide, many others might feel more inclined to commit it and, as a society, we would be more forgiving of it. Some may even escalate the argument to the point where they would claim we are encouraging it. I am arguing, however, for a better and more realistic understanding of the causes, consequences and treatment.
Suicide is prevalent everywhere, including among Muslim-majority counties. No society, age group, gender or religion is immune to it. While we are beginning to break the stigma around mental health issues, we are still alarmingly cautious when talking about it.
There are significant gaps in research on suicidal behavior in Muslim societies. According to Dr. Rania Awaad, the clinical director of the Bay Area branches of the Khalil Center, the largest clinic in the US for Muslim mental health issues: “There is very little research on suicide among Muslims because Muslim countries don’t report deaths by suicide to the World Health Organization.” The media also under-reports it and hardly analyzes it. Most of the research has been linked to specific cases, such as those that follow rape or violence. It fails to take into account age groups and socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds.
More importantly than everything mentioned above, what we lack is basic information and services for those who are having or exhibiting suicidal behavior and wanting help. A quick bit of research online will overwhelm you with the amount of information, resources, support groups, and helplines available in Western countries. This is because they understand suicide is a fact and because they are keen on providing assistance and helping to save lives. Anybody is able to access information from any international website, but we owe it to them to provide local assistance that is in line with their culture and religion — assistance that does not make them feel judged and gives them hope.
*Asma I. Abdulmalik is an Emirati civil servant and a writer interested in gender and development issues. Twitter: @Asmaimalik

Nobel Prize for Economics and a country blighted by hunger
Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/October 18, 2019
Last week, Abhijit Banerjee, an Indian-born economist, became one of three joint winners of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics for their work on alleviating poverty.
The news was reported by the Indian media with much pride, as Banerjee was only the second Indian-born economist honored with a Nobel. Twenty years earlier, Amartya Sen was rewarded for his work on the same subject: Fighting poverty and famine.
A few days later, while Banerjee’s achievement was still being celebrated and he was pursued for interviews by every Indian media outlet, a report from Ireland noted that India had slipped to position 102 on a list of 117 countries on the Global Hunger List. Humiliatingly for country with what is often touted as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India, with a score of 30.3, found itself rated worse even than civil war-afflicted African countries such as Mali (24.2), Nigeria (27.2), Burkina Faso (25.8) and Niger (30.2). All of India’s neighbors, other than Afghanistan, were rated much higher, with Sri Lanka (17.8) leading the pack of South Asian nations.
According to the index, India has been consistently slipping in the global rankings since 2014, when it was ranked 55th in a smaller sampling of 76 nations. In 2017, Pakistan was ranked behind India; two years later, India has ceded its position to its neighbor.
Certainly, India has made progress in addressing some of the parameters of hunger and malnutrition. For instance, its overall score has consistently improved since 2005 from 38.9 to 30.3. Fairly good progress has also been made in reducing the prevalence of stunting (below-average growth) in children from 54.2 in 2000 to 37.9 now, while the proportion of undernourishment has gone from 22.2 in 2010 to 14.5 now.
However, the most worrying aspect of the 2019 report is that wasting, or acute malnourishment, has increased sharply since 2014, when it affected 16.5 percent of children, and now affects 20.8 percent. Malnourishment has long been an issue in India, even before independence, when famines were not so rare.
In the past four decades, India has made sizable advances in addressing this problem through the reorganization of the public distribution system to ensure that every family receives a set minimum amount of food each week.
The free or heavily subsidized food-distribution system was strengthened in 2006 with the launch of the particularly impressive Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), which guaranteed at least 100 days of work each year to every adult or, if no jobs are available, that the government will pay the equivalent of the wages. In the first year of the scheme, more than 21 million households benefited. The numbers rose sharply each year for the next five years, in 2011 reaching 55 million: almost half of the country.
The scheme is credited as one of the key factors in the economic development of the rural poor in India. A recent UN Development Program report noted that more than 270 million Indians were lifted out of poverty between 2005 and 2015.
The benefits of MGNREGA spread far beyond impoverished villages. With a guaranteed income to rely on, the rural spend on a variety of items other than food — including household goods, consumer items, electronics and vehicles — boomed. This was one of the biggest contributors to a jump in India’s GDP growth rate, which quickly approached 9 percent a year.
Not surprisingly, MGNREGA features prominently in leading business and economics schools as a case study of how a government can use policy interventions not only to fight malnutrition, but also poverty and inequality. It is also credited with securing a second term for the Congress party, which enjoyed a comfortable victory in the 2009 elections.
Unfortunately for the poor in particular, and the Indian economy in general, the change of government after the 2014 elections brought with it drastic cuts to MGNREGA. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had stridently campaigned against the scheme, describing it as a colossal waste of public finances and prone to corruption. Despite strong advice and words of caution from Nobel-winning economist Sen, the government virtually disbanded the scheme soon after being sworn in.
If only the government had consulted leading economists, in particular the two Nobel winners, about its economic policies, the Indian growth story over the past four years would have been totally different.
Another big blow for the poor in India came in the form of demonetization in 2016, when the government withdrew the notes in circulation and replaced them with new ones. The exercise was so poorly planned and executed that it shaved more than 2.5 percent off GDP growth. Hundreds of millions of people in the unorganized sector (accounting for almost 80 percent of the national economy) found themselves out of work as their employers no longer had cash to buy anything or pay salaries.
It took the banks more than a year to start functioning normally again and restore the ability to dispense cash from ATMs. The botched exercise was heavily criticized by many leading economists, including Sen and Banerjee, who called it a monumental mistake with long-lasting repercussions.
Barely a year later, the government delivered another shock to the economy, this time through the hasty introduction of a new tax code that was supposed to make it easier to do business in India. Instead, a terrible implementation process sent GDP growth crashing.
If only the government had consulted leading economists, in particular the two Nobel winners, about its economic policies, the Indian growth story over the past four years would have been totally different. Instead, the country finds itself faced with a GDP growth rate that has fallen from nearly 10 percent to just 5 percent. Even now, though, it might not be too late for the Modi government to start heeding the advice of economists. Banerjee has warned that the current malaise could extend long into the future, and recommended urgent and significant rises in wages under the MGNREGA scheme.
He also advised that the frequent interference by the all-powerful office of the prime minister, which seems to be the place where all decisions are made these days, should be curbed. Will the prime minister listen?
*Ranvir S. Nayar is the editor of Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India that encompasses publishing, communication and consultation services.

The Syrian war and the demise of international diplomacy
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 18, 2019
The Middle East has experienced many political crises, conflicts and proxy wars, but never has diplomacy sunk as low as it has now. The Syrian crisis has caused diplomacy, mediation, the rules of war and politics to fall apart at the seams.
Allow me to list the most recent developments and then evaluate what they mean for the region:
• Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria.
• The EU called for sanctions on Turkey in response to its actions in Syria.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin requested a meeting with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi.
• US President Donald Trump’s scandalous letter to Erdogan.
• The visit by a US delegation to Ankara in the shadow of all these developments.
Prominent Syria expert Metin Gurcan correctly pointed out in a recent article that “there are four fronts of Operation Peace Spring: The military front on the ground, the diplomatic front, the optical front (in the eyes of Western public opinion and the international community) and the domestic front.”
All of the developments listed above should be considered within the framework of these four fronts. As we know, Operation Peace Spring, which Ankara launched on Oct. 9, is the third in a series of cross-border anti-terror operations in northern Syria targeting terrorists affiliated with Daesh, and the PKK’s Syrian offshoot the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Although such an operation had long been expected, it still came as a surprise to many.
Western powers strongly condemned Turkey for its actions and announced a series of sanctions, including a ban on arms sales. Erdogan responded by escalating the dispute, threatening to open the gates to Europe to nearly 4 million refugees hosted by Turkey.
Ankara has said from the start that its operation has two objectives: To eliminate a terrorist threat and create a safe zone for the resettlement of Syrian refugees. The reaction from European governments to the Turkish operation reflects public opinion in these countries, as the Kurdish issue has historically been viewed with sympathy in Europe.
However, threats of sanctions or of a flood refugees as part of a war of words between two sides blaming each other for the situation in Syria will get them nowhere.
In a prudent article, former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ulgen highlighted the fact that Turkey and the West need each other’s help to influence the future of Syria. The US and Europe need to forget sanctions and adopt a results-oriented policy when dealing with Ankara.
I could not agree more, given that Turkey is the only NATO country bordering Syria, a country in which Russia and Iran are increasing their sphere of influence with each passing day. It is significant to note that a more understanding approach from the West to Turkey’s security concerns might even lead Ankara to rely less on Russia and Iran in dealing with the Syrian crisis.
From the way the letter is written, it seems obvious that it is designed to appeal to public opinion in the US, where a presidential election will be held next year. Trump wants to convince his critics, and the public, that he did not give the green light for the Turkish operation.
Against the backdrop of this tense atmosphere between Turkey and Western nations, Putin invited Erdogan to Sochi and they will meet on Oct. 22 to discuss Syria. Russia deployed its military on Oct. 15, quickly filling the void left by the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. Moscow seems to be trying to maintain relationships with Turkey, the Syrian regime and the Kurds. Unlike Western countries, Russia has also reiterated that it understands Turkey’s security concerns and, therefore, is trying to keep the door open for discussion.
It is obvious that both Putin and Erdogan are keen to play smart. However, the Turkish side needs to keep in mind that the relationship between Russians and Kurds dates back to the establishment, with strong Soviet support, of the Republic of Mahabad in 1946. Although this pro-Soviet Kurdish republic existed for less than a year, it inspired Kurds to pursue their aspirations for an independent state. Russia has supported Kurdish nationalism ever since.
Speaking in Baku, where he was attending the seventh summit of the Turkic Council, Erdogan said the that Syrian regime entering Manbij city was “not very negative” for Turkey as long as “terrorists” are removed from the region. Moscow called for cooperation between Turkey and Syria to be based on the Adana Accord. This 1998 security pact set out the terms under which Turkey can carry out cross-border security operations, and placed an obligation on Damascus not to harbor members of the outlawed PKK. It worked quite well until Syrian war.
The start date of Operation Peace Spring, Oct. 9, is symbolic. It was the date in 1998 on which the Syrian regime deported PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to Russia after the Adana Accord was signed. However, it is crucial to remember that it was the Syrian regime that allowed the YPG to take control of this region of Syria during the civil war as retaliation against Turkey, which was supporting the opposition. The ball is now in Moscow’s court to convince Turkey that such a scenario will not happen again.
And so we come to the most recent, and shocking, development: Trump’s Oct. 9 letter to Erdogan. Defying all recognized norms of diplomacy, the US president warns his Turkish counterpart not to be “a fool.”
From the way it is written, it seems obvious that it is designed to appeal to public opinion in the US, where a presidential election will be held next year. Trump wants to convince his critics, and the public, that he did not give the green light for the Turkish operation.
However, the letter, which Turkish sources said was immediately thrown in the trash, not only provoked institutional distrust between the two countries but also overshadowed the visit to Turkey of a US delegation headed by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Thus, just like the Syrian war, international diplomacy and statecraft have fallen into a deep crisis.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz