English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 14/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit.
John 10/01-06: “‘Very truly, I tell you, anyone who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit. The one who enters by the gate is the shepherd of the sheep. The gatekeeper opens the gate for him, and the sheep hear his voice. He calls his own sheep by name and leads them out. When he has brought out all his own, he goes ahead of them, and the sheep follow him because they know his voice. They will not follow a stranger, but they will run from him because they do not know the voice of strangers.’Jesus used this figure of speech with them, but they did not understand what he was saying to them.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 13-14/2020
Thanksgiving Day: Obligations Prayers & Wishes/Elias Bejjani/October 12/2020
Aoun Meets Lebanese Delegation, Kubis on Eve of Maritime Talks
Presidency Says Claims Aoun Flouted Constitution 'Weaken Lebanese Position'
Hezbollah, Amal provide Shia cover for border talks with Israel
Wehbe Says Lebanon Not Recognizing Israel, Vows 'Fierce' Negotiations
Lebanon’s Gebran Bassil criticizes former PM Hariri efforts to form government
Beirut blast: FBI has no firm conclusion on cause of deadly explosion in Lebanon
BDL Hands Over Documents to Forensic Audit Firm
Franjieh Says to Name Hariri as Premier
Mustaqbal Delegation Begins Talks over French Plan
Jumblat Lashes Out at Hariri, Blames Himself for May 7 Clashes
Alfa Station, Diesel Tank Go Up in Flames in Bouchrieh
Judge Sawan Receives FBI's Investigation into Beirut Blast
Bassil Slams Hariri's 'Bravados', Proposes Constitutional Amendment
Achieving Lebanese Neutrality, with Iran and the Vatican/Elie Aoun/October 14/2020
A Hariri-led government may be Lebanon’s last chance/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/October 13/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 13-14/2020

New Karabakh Fighting Defies Ceasefire Pleas as Toll Mounts
US demands Turkey end ‘calculated provocation’ of ship
Assad Makes Rare Visit to Areas Hit by Fires in West Syria
Iran short of 'significant quantity' of potential bomb material: IAEA boss
Israel’s Cabinet Approves UAE Pact as Leaders Plan Meeting
Tension between Turkey and Greece rise in crisis over eastern Mediterranean
Unidentified drone lands in Iran near Azerbaijan border: Official
Turkey detains over 160 individuals for suspected Gulen links
Turkey slams ‘arrogant’ EU calls urging withdrawal from Syria
Turkish authorities ban unprecedented Kurdish-language play
US elections: Group of 33 former ambassadors to Middle East endorse Biden over Trump
Palestinian man on hunger-strike close to death, says Israeli rights group

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 13-14/2020

Iran-backed militias announce ‘conditional’ cease-fire against U.S. in Iraq/Louisa Loveluck/The Washington Post/October 13/2020
As Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates Normalize ties, China Looks On Varily/Michael Singh/War On The Rocks/October 13/2020
Iraqi government approves economic reforms to extricate country from crisis/Sinan Mahmoud/The National/October 13/ 2020
Trump’s latest sanctions threaten to add to Iran's currency crisis/Bryant Harris/The National/October 14/2020
How two 16th-century pirates inspired Erdogan's foreign policy/David Lepeska//The National/October 13/2020
Syria’s calm before the storm/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October 13/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 13-14/2020
Thanksgiving Day: Obligations Prayers & Wishes
الياس بجاني/عيد الشكر في كندا: واجبات وصلاة وتمنيات
Elias Bejjani/October 12/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/91224/%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d8%ae%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b3%d9%82%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%84%d9%84%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%aa-851/

Let us never forget that we have a holy obligation to always no matter what to happily keep on thanking Almighty God For His generosity, love and Graces.
This Year, Our beloved Canada celebrates on the 12th of October The Thanksgiving Day.
A blessed day by all means that is welcomed and cherished with joy, gratefulness, Hope and faith.
All principles and values of humility and gratitude necessitates that each and every one of us with faith, and hope thank Almighty God for all that we have no matter what.
To appreciate what we have it is a must to look wisely around and observe the millions and millions of people all over the world who are totally deprived from almost every thing that is basic and needed for a safe and descent life.
While celebrating the “Thanksgiving Day” Let us be grateful and thank Almighty God genuinely and with full reverence.
On this very special day we have to focus on praying and combine both faith and acts together.
We need to train ourselves to witness for the truth and to be humble and generous in giving what we can to all those who are in need.
We must recognise and understand with no shed of doubt that the only weapons that a peaceful believer can use to fight hardships of all sorts are faith, honesty, self trust, righteousness and praying.
Let us all Lebanese Canadians pray and ask Almighty God for what ever we are in need for ourselves, for others and for our beloved both countries, Canada and Lebanon.
Almighty God definitely will hear and respond in case we are genuine in our prayers and praying with confidence, faith and trust, but His responses shall be mostly beyond our understanding or grasping.
Let us Pray for on going peace and prosperity in the hospitable and great Canada that gave us a home when we needed it.
Let us pray for peace in our beloved original country, Lebanon and for freedom of its persecuted and impoverished people.
Let us pray that all Families will get together on this day to support each other and mend all differences among their members.
Let us pray that all parents will be appreciated today by their family members, honoured and showed all due respect.
Let us pray for the souls of Lebanon’s martyrs that fell while defending Lebanon’s dignity and independence.
Let us pray that Jesus Christ shall grant, our mother country, Lebanon, the Land Of the Holy Cedars with faithful clergymen and brave political leaders who fear him and count for His Day Of Judgment.
Let us pray for peace and tranquility in our beloved Canada, and for all countries and people over the world, especially in the troubled and chaotic Middle East
Happy Thanksgiving Day.

Aoun Meets Lebanese Delegation, Kubis on Eve of Maritime Talks
Naharnet/October 13/2020
President Michel Aoun held separate talks at Baabda Palace on Tuesday with the Lebanese team tasked with holding indirect maritime talks with Israel, and with the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis on the eve of the talks scheduled on Wednesday. Aoun met with the four-member Lebanese delegation headed by air force Brig. Gen. Bassam Yassin. The three other members are navy Col. Mazen Basbous, Lebanese oil official Wissam Chbat and border expert Najib Massihi. Caretaker Defense Minister Zeina Akar, and Army chief Joseph Aoun attended the meeting. "The talks are technical. A fair solution must be reached to protect the sovereign rights of Lebanese," stressed Aoun. Lebanon and Israel are set to begin US-brokered negotiations Thursday on their disputed maritime border.Earlier, Aoun met with the UN Special Coordinator. Washington has hailed the Lebanon-Israel agreement as "historic" between the two sides technically still at war. The issue of the sea frontier is particularly sensitive, as Lebanon wants to drill for hydrocarbons in a part of the Mediterranean disputed by Israel. The United States will act as a facilitator during the talks to be held at the UN peacekeeping headquarters in the southern Lebanon border town of Naqoura. “The US representatives and the UN special coordinator for Lebanon are prepared to provide meeting minutes together that they will sign and present to Israel and Lebanon to sign at the end of each meeting," Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had said.

Presidency Says Claims Aoun Flouted Constitution 'Weaken Lebanese Position'
Naharnet/October 13/2020
The Presidency’s press office on Tuesday noted that claims that President Michel Aoun has violated the Constitution “weaken the Lebanese position” in the border demarcation negotiations with Israel. “To date, the President has not signed or ratified any international treaty in order to agree on it with the Premier,” the office said in a statement. “Any other remarks distort the Constitution and are aimed at either misinformation or, what’s worse, weakening the Lebanese stance at the wrong moment, seeing as Lebanon is going to practical and technical negotiations over the demarcation of its maritime border to preserve its natural resources and sovereignty over every inch of its land and waters,” the office said. It added: “Enough with polemics in the era of seriousness and we direly need solidarity and national cohesion for the sake of preserving or recapturing our sovereign rights.” The Premiership had said Monday that Aoun had made a “clear and blatant violation of a constitutional text” by not coordinating with caretaker PM Hassan Diab in the formation of the team that will handle the negotiations.
 

Hezbollah, Amal provide Shia cover for border talks with Israel
The Arab Weekly/October 13/2020
Lebanon embarks Wednesday on political and military negotiations with Israel.
BEIRUT – Lebanon enters Wednesday a new phase in its modern history when the first session of the negotiations on border demarcation with Israel takes place. The session will be held between the Lebanese and Israeli delegations at a United Nations headquarters in the town of Naqoura, on the Lebanese-Israeli border. The negotiations, with both their political and military character, will be sponsored by the United States and attended by representatives of the United Nations, which still has an international forcein southern Lebanon since 1978.
Political sources said that the importance of these negotiations lies in the cover provided by the “Shia duo”, Hezbollah and Amal Movement, on the one hand, and in the fact that the Lebanese and Israeli delegations include military and civilian officials, on the other. This means, according to these sources, that in-depth negotiations will take place between the two sides that will not be limited to military issues, but include political issues. The US delegation expected to participate in the opening session of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations will be headed by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, who stressed in a statement the importance of these negotiations in terms of supporting stability in the region and the security of both Lebanon and Israel at the same time.
Parliament Speaker and head of Amal Movement Nabih Berri had prepared the ground for the negotiations through a statement he read a few days ago, in which he outlined its framework, but left it to President Michel Aoun, a Christian, to announce the names of the members of the Lebanese political-military delegation. This move led, naturally, to objections being raised by the prime ministry, a Sunni-controlled branch. The Secretary General of the Council of Ministers Mahmoud Makiya issued a statement in which he said that a letter was sent to the General Directorate of the Presidency of the Republic regarding the composition of the Lebanese delegation to the technical negotiations of the border demarcation.
Makiya stressed that deciding on the negotiations and appointing negotiators for the border demarcation negotiations have to be through a joint agreement between the president of the republic and the prime minister, noting that any other approach constitutes a clear and explicit violation of the text of the constitution. The Lebanese presidency has announced the list of the members of the Lebanese delegation. It includes Pilot Staff Brigadier General Bassam Yassin, Marine Colonel Mazen Basbous, a member of the Petroleum Sector Administration in Lebanon, Wissam Chabat, and an expert in international law, Najib Masihi, who works with the Army Command on topics related to maps.
Bassam Yassin, who will head the delegation, is considered very close to Amal Movement and enjoys the trust of the movement’s president and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. It was clear through the choice of the members of the delegation that care had been taken to ensure that they came from a variety of sects to provide the required political and sectarian coverage for the negotiations. The speaker of the Lebanese parliament had announced that a “framework agreement” had been reached to launch negotiations between his country and Israel to demarcate the borders.
When announcing this “framework agreement” with Israel, Berri was keen to exclude the possibility that what he announced would pave the way for disarming Hezbollah. It was noteworthy in this regard that he chose to reiterate the key slogan words with which the militant party had always justified keeping its weapons, namely “the people, the army and the resistance.” Observers, however, pointed out that Berri did not use in his statement the words “enemy” or “the Zionist entity” or “the occupation” to refer to Israel, which they say is a sign that the Shia duo did not object to opening channels with Tel Aviv beyond the maritime agreement that could relieve US and international pressure on Hezbollah and on Iran behind it.
Berri said, during a press conference held at his residence in West Beirut, that “negotiations to demarcate the borders with Israel will take place under the auspices of the United Nations,” noting that “the United States will act as a mediator to demarcate the maritime borders,” and that it “intends to make every effort to manage the negotiations and conclude them successfully as quickly as possible.” Berri considered that the United States “realises that the governments of Lebanon and Israel are ready to demarcate the borders based on the positive experience of the existing mechanism from the April 1996 ceasefire agreement, and currently under Resolution 1701.”The April 1996 Understanding (an informal written agreement between Israel and Hezbollah) was reached thanks to the diplomatic efforts of the United States, which ended the 1996 military conflict between the two sides.
The United States quickly welcomed this latest agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “The agreement on Israeli-Lebanese negotiations is the result of three years of efforts,” adding that the negotiations “have the potential to yield greater stability, security and prosperity for Lebanese and Israeli citizens alike.” He expressed Washington’s hope to see these negotiations off to a good start soon.
The Israeli delegation participating in the negotiations consists of six members, including Director General of the Ministry of Energy Udi Adiri, the diplomatic advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Reuven Azar, and the head of the Strategic Affairs Department in the army.
Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz announced that Wednesday’s talks to demarcate the maritime borders with Lebanon are not devoted to “peace or normalisation.”Yuval wrote on his Twitter account on Monday that “expectations regarding the maritime economic negotiations with Lebanon must be realistic.”“We are not talking about negotiations for peace or normalisation. Rather, we are talking about an attempt to resolve a technical-economic conflict that has been delaying the development of natural resources at sea for ten years, for the benefit of the peoples of the region,” he added.
In turn, Israeli security agencies expressed their optimism about the start of talks between Israel and Lebanon Wednesday at the United Nations headquarters in Ras al-Naqoura (north), on the demarcation of the maritime borders between the two countries.
On Monday, the official Israeli Broadcasting Corporation quoted the unnamed entities as saying that “the economic crisis in Lebanon will facilitate reaching an agreement.” “This crisis reduces Hezbollah’s opposition to these talks,” it added.

Wehbe Says Lebanon Not Recognizing Israel, Vows 'Fierce' Negotiations
Naharnet/October 13/2020
Caretaker Foreign Minister Charbel Wehbe announced Tuesday that by holding maritime border demarcation talks with Israel, Lebanon will not be “recognizing” Israel as a state nor “normalizing” ties with it. “We are not making an agreement to recognize the state of Israel… We are negotiating to agree on the demarcation of the maritime border. We will not normalize ties nor agree to peace treaties,” Wehbe told reporters at the Foreign Ministry. Commenting on Israeli remarks suggesting that the negotiations with Lebanon will be easy because it is going through a financial crisis, Wehbe said: “We are going to the negotiations with firmness that exceeds the enemy’s imagination.”“They consider that we are a state whose economy is destroyed and in ruins… but I say that the Lebanese negotiators will be much fiercer than they imagine, because we have nothing to lose,” the minister added. He also noted that Lebanese authorities have been keen on maintaining silence regarding the negotiations. “Silence is not weakness, nor lack of awareness, nor diplomatic ignorance, but rather a stance and a plan that confuse the enemy,” Wehbe pointed out. He added that “negotiations with an enemy state require cleverness, patience, firmness and farsightedness,” calling on the Lebanese delegation to “cling to these characteristics.”

Lebanon’s Gebran Bassil criticizes former PM Hariri efforts to form government
Beirut/ReutersTuesday 13 October 2020
Lebanese politician Gebran Bassil criticized former Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday for putting himself forward to lead a government that would champion a French initiative to resolve the country’s deep economic crisis. Hariri has begun consultations with the president, parliamentary speaker and Lebanese political blocs about forming a government that would implement French President Emmanuel Macron’s roadmap for reforms and unlock international aid. Read more: Lebanon alters delegation for US-led talks with Israel after Hezbollah backlash. He has said his mission was to form a six-month government of technocrats to rapidly carry out the reform plan set out in Macron’s initiative. “We were not aware, and nobody informed us, that President Macron had appointed a high commissioner... to Lebanon, and made a prefect for us to oversee his initiative and the extent of its implementation,” Bassil said in a speech to supporters. “Whoever wants to head a government of technocrats has to be a technocrat himself,” said Bassil, who heads Lebanon’s biggest Christian bloc, the Free Patriotic Movement. A former foreign minister, Bassil is also Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law. Aoun will hold formal consultations on Thursday about nominating a prime minister to form a new government to replace Hassan Diab’s cabinet, which resigned two months ago after a powerful explosion damaged much of Beirut and killed 200 people. Diab’s nominated replacement has been unable to form a government after Lebanese Hezbollah and its political allies insisted on nominating the finance minister. Lebanon is suffering its worst financial collapse since a 1975-1990 civil war. Foreign donors have made clear there will be no fresh aid unless Lebanese leaders launch reforms to tackle graft and improve governance, and engage in IMF negotiations.

Beirut blast: FBI has no firm conclusion on cause of deadly explosion in Lebanon
Reuters/Tuesday 13 October 2020
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation said on Tuesday it has reached no firm conclusion about what caused the Aug. 4 explosion in the port of Beirut that killed nearly 200 people and caused billions of dollars in damage. Other US and European government agencies closely following the investigations into the explosion strongly believe that the blast was accidental. “No such conclusion has been reached,” an FBI spokeswoman told Reuters by email. She cited an earlier statement in which the US agency said it would be “providing our Lebanese partners investigative assistance” in their probe.
“Further questions should be directed to the Lebanese authorities as the lead investigators,” the spokeswoman said. Lebanese media on Tuesday reported that an FBI report into the explosion was handed over to a Lebanese judge on Monday. The FBI declined to comment on the reports. Two US government sources familiar with official reporting and analysis on the incident said that US agencies were also largely convinced that the blast, involving large quantities of ammonium nitrate which had been stored in a port building for years, was an accident. A European government source familiar with intelligence reporting and analysis said official European experts also assessed that the explosion was accidental.

BDL Hands Over Documents to Forensic Audit Firm
Naharnet/October 13/2020
The central bank announced Tuesday that it has submitted documents requested for a forensic audit that will be carried out by a foreign firm at the demand of the Lebanese government. “Banque du Liban has handed over to the state commissioner to the central bank all the documents and information allowed by the applicable Lebanese laws, in line with the stipulations of the contract signed between the Finance Ministry and the Alvarez & Marsal Middle East Limited (A&M) firm, which is tasked with the forensic audit,” BDL said in a statement. The government had agreed to hire the New York-based company on July 21 to determine how massive amounts of money were spent in the nation plagued by corruption. Two other companies, KPMG and Oliver Wyman, were contracted to do traditional accounting audits of central bank accounts. The government had been calling for a forensic audit into the central bank's accounts since March following the country's first ever default on paying back its massive debt. "This is a cornerstone on which reform can be built on," caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab was quoted as saying during a Cabinet meeting. "This will be a historic decision for Lebanon and will mark a radical change to reveal overspending and theft." A Lebanese judge has ordered some of the assets of central bank Gov. Riad Salameh be frozen. The decision, which is symbolic, came after a lawsuit filed by five lawyers who belong to an activist group known as "the people want to fix the regime." The lawyers accused Salameh, who has held the post since 1993, of negligence and inciting people to withdraw their money from bank accounts and selling state bonds. Since October, Lebanon's currency has lost more than 80% of its value, leading many to blame Salameh for the crash. Protests outside the central bank are not uncommon in Beirut's commercial district of Hamra.

Franjieh Says to Name Hariri as Premier
Naharnet/October 13/2020
Marada Movement chief Sleiman Franjieh said on Tuesday, after holding government talks with the al-Mustaqbal Movement delegation, that his parliamentary bloc will name ex-PM Saad Hariri in the parliamentary consultations on Thursday. "We will name Prime Minister Saad Hariri to head the new government. We trust his wisdom, and are ready to cooperate with him,” al-Jadeed TV station quoted Franjieh as saying. “We adopted the French initiative and we adhere to our position. I nominated Hariri before French President Emmanuel Macron during the talks at the Pine Residence,” added Franjieh. “There is a constitutional process that must go ahead, and our proposal is patriotic and open. Let us all work on the basis of the constitution,” he added. For her part, MP Bahiaa Hariri said the meeting with Franjieh was “frank,” and that the Mustqabal delegation (composed of herself, MP Samir Jisr and MP Hadi Hobeish) will brief Hariri on the outcome. Hariri announced on Monday, after meeting President Michel Aoun, that he will send a delegation to talk with all the main political blocs, to ensure that they are still fully committed to Macron's initiative.

Mustaqbal Delegation Begins Talks over French Plan
Agence France Presse/October 13/2020
A delegation of al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc launched talks on Tuesday with the main political blocs to ensure they are still fully committed to the French initiative of President Emmanuel Macron. The delegation is composed of MPs Bahia Hariri, Samir Jisr and Hadi Hobeish, according to LBCI. Ex-PM and leader of al-Mustaqbal Movement, Saad Hariri, seeking a new term, said Monday he would meet all key parties to survey their commitment to a French rescue plan. The delegation first met with Marada Movement chief Sleiman Franjieh. It will meet with Tashnaq party in the afternoon. Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat has refused to receive the delegation, blasting at Hariri for "designating himself." The country is bankrupt, but the ruling elite has so far failed to respond to calls by French President Emmanuel Macron for the rapid formation of an independent government. Hariri, himself one of Lebanon's hereditary political barons, stepped down from the position of prime minister a year ago under pressure from a massive protest movement calling for an end to sectarian-based politics. "I will send a delegation to talk with all the main political blocs, to ensure that they are still fully committed" to Macron's initiative, Hariri said, after meeting President Michel Aoun. Macron visited Lebanon two days after the August 4 Beirut port explosion that disfigured the city, and returned three weeks later to check on the status of reforms he conditioned international support on. The roadmap Macron laid out for debt-ridden Lebanon included a two-week deadline for the formation of a tighter and independent government of experts, that would only stay in office a few months. A new prime minister, Mustapha Adib, was designated -- but he threw in the towel after meeting resistance from the top Shiite parties that sought guarantees they would retain the finance ministry. Hariri, who has already served two terms as Lebanese premier and has close ties with France, has since resurfaced as the most likely candidate to take over. "I am convinced that President Macron's initiative is the only and last remaining opportunity for our country to stop the collapse and rebuild Beirut," Hariri said, according to a statement from his office. Hariri last week said he was a possible candidate to head a new government to stem the country's economic collapse. His series of meetings comes ahead of parliamentary consultations to appoint a new premier which are scheduled to start on Thursday.

Jumblat Lashes Out at Hariri, Blames Himself for May 7 Clashes
Naharnet/October 13/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Monday blasted ex-PM Saad Hariri and accused him of “designating himself” as premier prior to the binding parliamentary consultations. “Over the past three years, Hariri handed over the Lebanese state to the Shiite duo and the Free Patriotic Movement represented in Jebran Bassil,” Jumblat said in an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “The constitutional norms have changed, seeing as today there is a new norm and self-designation,” he added. “Hariri has designated himself and it is possible that he has set up a deal to split shares with Jebran and the (Shiite) duo,” Jumlat went on to say, noting that he has refused to meet with a Mustaqbal Movement delegation dispatched by Hariri. “Hariri says that he wants a government of specialists without politicians, but isn’t he a politician? Sheikh Saad, you are a politician. Will you name angels as ministers and will the Amal Movement name astronauts as ministers?” Jumblat asked. As for Hizbullah, the PSP leader said such an extent of collapse in the country is not in the party’s interest, urging Hizbullah to give the Lebanese some “hope.”Separately, Jumblat admitted that he was behind the May 5, 2008 decisions that led to the May 7, 2008 clashes with Hizbullah. “I sparked (the) May 7 (incidents) and someone encouraged me to do that,” Jumblat said.

Alfa Station, Diesel Tank Go Up in Flames in Bouchrieh
Naharnet/October 13/2020
A transmission station and a diesel tank belonging to the Alfa mobile network operator went up in flames on the rooftop of a building in Sed El Bouchrieh’s industrial zone on Tuesday, causing material damage and sending plumes of black smoke. The blaze was quickly put out by Civil Defense firefighters.
The owner of the building told al-Jadeed TV that he received no answer from Alfa after reporting a diesel tank leakage two days ago. Al-Jadeed meanwhile said that the station’s destruction will weaken Alfa’s coverage in the area for around two days.
 

Judge Sawan Receives FBI's Investigation into Beirut Blast
Associated Press/Tuesday 13 October 2020
The judge investigating a massive blast in Beirut that killed and wounded many people two months ago has received a report from the FBI about their own probe of the blast, state-run National News Agency reported Tuesday.
The news agency said Judge Fadi Sawan received the FBI report on Monday, adding that he is still waiting for similar reports from French and British explosives experts. It gave no details about the content of the report.
The Aug. 4 blast at Beirut's port killed nearly 200 people, injured about 6,500 and caused damage worth billions of dollars. Nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive chemical used in fertilizers, exploded at Beirut's port. The material had been stored at the facility for six years. It is still not known what ignited the nitrate but more than two dozen people, many of them port and customs officials have been detained since. Sawan, the judge in charge of the investigation, has questioned top security officials, former Cabinet ministers and port employees.NNA said the reports by foreign investigation teams will specify the cause behind the explosion of the nitrates and the nature of the explosion and whether there was an intentional act of sabotage, or whether the blast was the result of a mistake or misestimation about the dangers of the material that exploded.

Bassil Slams Hariri's 'Bravados', Proposes Constitutional Amendment
Naharnet/October 13/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday hit out at ex-PM Saad Hariri and proposed a constitutional amendment related to the designation of premiers and the formation of cabinets. “He who wants to head a government of specialists must be the first specialist or must make way for a specialist. And he who wants to head a government of politicians has the right to do so if he is the first politician, while he who likes to mix between both must know how to do the mixture, but without outsmarting attempts and media bravados,” Bassil said in a speech marking the anniversary of President Michel Aoun’s ouster from the Baabda Palace as the head of a military government on October 13, 1990. Criticizing both Hariri and the club of ex-PMs as well as the Shiite duo over the failure to form a government after Mustafa Adib’s designation as PM, Bassil said a camp sought to “seize a ministerial portfolio in breach of norms and the Constitution” as another tried to “monopolize all ministerial portfolios in breach of all norms and without possessing any parliamentary or National Pact-related majority.” He added: “The clash over power and fear of the other is big to the extent that the two camps are willing to torpedo the chance to rescue the country in return for making the gain of preserving their positions in the system.”He also stressed that the “ultimate priority” today is to “stop the financial and economic collapse and form a government that would accomplish this mission and prevent the descent of the country into chaos and sedition.”
Separately, Bassil said the Strong Lebanon bloc will propose a constitutional amendment that would grant the president of the republic a one-month deadline to call for consultations to name a new PM and a similar deadline to the PM-designate to form a cabinet. “There is no possibility to continue living with this rancid and rotten constitution which was imposed on us through tanks. It exhausted us through corruption and now it wants to end us through paralysis and slow death!” Bassil said. “Constitutions can be amended, especially if they generate problems instead of solutions. There is a mechanism to amend and improve our constitution without wars but rather through understanding!” he added. The FPM chief also lashed out at the Lebanese Forces in connection with the October 17, 2019 uprising and some security incidents. “There is a security problem because we started witnessing scenes of security chaos after October 17,” Bassil said. “We witnessed systematic blocking of roads, deployment operations, paramilitary marches and threatening messages all the way to the Mirna Chalouhi (standoff between supporters of the LF and the FPM),” Bassil added.“Seizing control of our society through force is prohibited! There is no problem in doing so through peaceful means and democracy,” the FPM chief went on to say, addressing the LF.

Achieving Lebanese Neutrality, with Iran and the Vatican
Elie Aoun/October 14/2020
إيلي عون: تحقيق الحياد اللبناني مع إيران والفاتيكان
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/91269/elie-aoun-achieving-lebanese-neutrality-with-iran-and-the-vatican-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84/

ملخص المقالة: بإمكان الفاتيكان وملالي إيران الإتفاق على تحييد لبنان وهذا أمر ممكن على خلفية العلاقة الممتازة بين حاضرة الفاتيكان وجمهورية إيران الإسلامية وفي حال تم الإتفاق على هذا الأمر بين الطرفين لا حاجة عندها ولا ضرورة لموافقة أو رفض الطبقة السياسية في لبنان.
In 2003 when certain lobbying efforts in Washington were directed towards Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act, I wrote an article advocating Lebanese neutrality. At the time, I perceived the Act as a short-term solution and my neutrality perspective was long-term (to safeguard Lebanon after Syria’s withdrawal).
After the withdrawal of the Syrian occupation army from Lebanon, the major debate became Hizballah’s weapons. At that time, I proposed a certain solution to that issue. Unfortunately, the well-intentioned proposal was on one hand utilized by the FPM leadership in Rabieh to collect monetary “benefits” from Hizballah while the Hizballah leadership used the proposal to drag the issue leading to the instigation of the 2006 war – and the derailment of any solution.
One lesson learned is that it was naïve to consider that the Hizballah leadership had a sense of patriotism or that they wanted solutions. They were given an opportunity to be Lebanese, but they made the free choice to be traitors and con-artists – and they will continue to be treated as such.
All the problems facing Lebanon today are a consequence of failing to resolve pertinent problems and set proper foundations in 2005, after Syria’s withdrawal.
Recently, the Maronite Patriarch Rahi proposed the neutrality option. Although I personally believe that no proposal is currently useful without adequate individuals in position of power, I am willing (as a nationalist) to give the Patriarch’s proposal a chance on the condition that it proves itself to be genuine. How?
When the Patriarch made his proposal, certain politicians opposed it while others took a neutral view or mentioned the need for a Lebanese consensus on neutrality.
In reality, there is no requirement for a Lebanese consensus on neutrality. There is not even a requirement for the approval of a single Lebanese politician.
It is no secret that one primary influencer of Lebanese politics are the clergy of Hizballah, who in turn are influenced by the clergy of Iran, which in turn has the second largest embassy at the Vatican.
So why does the Vatican, which some people consider as a “holy” center, hosts an embassy to an Iranian regime which is considered by many as one of the primary promoter of terrorism in the world today? The answer is certainly not to hold joint prayer meetings. There is, of course, some level of “co-operation” although we do not know what that cooperation might be.
If Patriarch Rahi is sincere about the “neutrality” option, and most likely he is, then all he has to do is to “lobby” the Vatican to adopt that proposal and convince the Iranian clergy to do the same. If the Vatican clergy and Iranian clergy declare Lebanese neutrality, then no Lebanese politician is going to oppose that announcement. They will all rally to support the “historic achievement.” Furthermore, if a certain politician opposes the Vatican-Iranian proposal, what will he do? Force Iran to interfere?
An Iranian declaration of Lebanese neutrality would mean a halt to all direct support to Hizballah – politically, financially and militarily.
In conclusion, the test before Patriarch Rahi is to either convince the Vatican to unilaterally declare Lebanese neutrality, or to convince the Vatican to make a joint Vatican-Iranian announcement in this regard. If either or both of these options are achieved, most politicians or governments will not oppose it – and any opposition would be of no significant value.
 

A Hariri-led government may be Lebanon’s last chance
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/October 13/2020
Lebanon’s political impasse, triggered by the Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion that forced Prime Minister Hassan Diab to resign, is not ending soon, despite the fact France has kept its initiative on the table. President Emmanuel Macron has denounced the ruling political class in Lebanon for derailing the efforts of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib to form a nonpartisan Cabinet of experts to salvage an economy in freefall, which has left more than half of the country’s population in abject poverty. But he also knows that the same ruling elite could approve a deal to name and support a new prime minister.
Lebanon’s last chance of recovering from its deep economic crisis is the French initiative, which promises to deliver badly needed international aid. Standing in the way is the so-called Shiite duo: Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. They have insisted on taking the finance portfolio, setting a dangerous precedent for a country that is reeling from sectarian divisions and rivalries. A majority of Lebanese, who took to the streets last year and brought down the beleaguered government of Saad Hariri, want a new political deal that shuns the sectarian power-sharing agreement that was reached in Taif in 1989.
Now Hariri is proposing himself as the only candidate that can break the stalemate. He certainly has the backing of Paris and is seen as a tested figure both locally and regionally. But the conditions for his success remain the same: He must be allowed to form an independent government that has the mandate to implement tough reforms that would repair Lebanon’s fractured image and restore the confidence of foreign donors, as well as the Lebanese public. The coming few days will determine if this is Lebanon’s last chance of ending the current spiral and saving the French initiative.
Meanwhile, there is another twist in the conflicted Lebanese scene. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this month announced that Lebanon had agreed to negotiate a maritime border demarcation deal with Israel, under the UN’s auspices. Surprisingly, Hezbollah, which portrays itself as a staunch enemy of Israel, has not objected to these bilateral talks, which are due to start on Wednesday. Lebanon claims that Israel has encroached on an 800 square km area of its waters. These waters are believed to be rich in natural gas, which would provide an economic lifeline for struggling Lebanon.
Questions remain over who exactly will negotiate with the Israelis and whether the talks will extend to the disputed land borders along the 1949 armistice lines, which include what Hezbollah considers to be Israeli-occupied Lebanese territory. The timing of this is intriguing as it comes as the Trump administration is pushing to add more Arab nations to the growing number that are normalizing ties with Israel.
But the US’ interests in Lebanon go beyond the issue of resolving maritime border disputes. Washington sees Lebanon as part of its program to isolate Iran and its regional proxies. It has listed Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, as have a number of European countries, and it will put pressure on any new government to distance itself from the Tehran-backed militia. Hezbollah, on the other hand, understands that it is being targeted at a crucial geopolitical moment. Iran is in no position to extend further financial help to its Lebanese proxy. Hezbollah’s role in smuggling fuel and other goods to Syria, at the expense of the suffering Lebanese, has hurt its image inside Lebanon and among the Shiites. Its alliance with President Michel Aoun, who has become increasingly unpopular, is becoming a liability for both. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, may be regretting the fact that his party has gotten entangled in Lebanese politics. Macron has called on him to decide whether Hezbollah is a political party or an armed militia.
Hezbollah has to either back Hariri’s candidacy or face dire consequences, both domestically and beyond.
Certainly the biggest issue for Washington, as well as for Israel, is the fate of Hezbollah’s arms. The party has become a state within a state and its agenda — an extension of that of Iran — has become a major destabilizing factor for Lebanon. While Lebanon will not normalize ties with Israel anytime soon, the maritime border talks will contain the tensions along their common borders. Hezbollah’s acquiescence reflects its deep internal crisis. It has to either back Hariri’s candidacy or face dire consequences, both domestically and beyond. The alternative will mean chaos and may push Lebanon closer to a civil war.
With talks between Israel and Lebanon imminent, it will be interesting to see whether Washington will be able to exert enough pressure on both sides in order to reach a historic agreement. Meanwhile, if Hariri is successful in forming an independent government, a window of hope will open for Lebanon to extract itself from economic and social ruin. But the road toward a new political deal for Lebanon is littered with obstacles as the country attempts to free itself from the clutches of Iranian interference.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 13-14/2020

New Karabakh Fighting Defies Ceasefire Pleas as Toll Mounts
Agence France Presse/October 13/2020
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces engaged in new fighting on Tuesday over the Nagorno-Karabakh region despite pleas to observe a ceasefire, as the Red Cross warned hundreds of thousands were already affected by the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged the sides to observe a ceasefire agreed only four days ago in Moscow, while the group of powers seeking a solution to the conflict warned of "catastrophic consequences" unless immediate steps were taken. More than two weeks of fighting between the Caucasus rivals has left almost 600 dead, including 73 civilians, according to a tally based on partial tolls from both sides. The Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, overwhelmingly populated by Armenians, has been controlled by Armenians since a 1990s war that erupted as the Soviet Union fell. But Azerbaijan has never hidden its desire to win back control and no state has ever recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's declaration of independence. The fighting has been the most intense since a 1994 ceasefire ended the initial post-Soviet war. Even a humanitarian truce to allow exchanges of prisoners and dead has been too much to implement. "Civilians are dying or suffering life-changing injuries," said International Committee of the Red Cross Eurasia regional director Martin Schuepp in a statement. "Homes, businesses and once-busy streets are being reduced to rubble."He said hundreds of thousands of people across the region were affected, with healthcare services coming under strain and even attacked in some cases.
Heavy shelling
The Nagorno-Karabakh separatist authorities accused Azerbaijan of launching an offensive in the south, north and northeast of the region. Baku in turn accused Armenians of launching strikes on the districts of Goranboy, Terter and Agdam -- Azerbaijani territory outside Nagorno-Karabakh. An AFP correspondent in Terter close to the front line reported hearing heavy shelling nearby and seeing a rocket launcher drive by as Azerbaijani forces sought to fire up into the mountains. "We've been here for 16 days," said Akiif Aslamiv, 62, who has been hunkering down in a basement in Terter. "Every day they shell us, even during the ceasefire. Today and yesterday it was non-stop."The daily fighting has made a mockery of the ceasefire agreed between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in the early hours of Saturday in Moscow after 11 hours of talks. "The United States calls on Azerbaijan and Armenia to implement their commitments to a ceasefire as agreed and cease targeting civilian areas," Pompeo, whose administration has faced accusations of a lack of engagement in ending the fighting, wrote on Twitter. The search for a long-term solution to the conflict, one of the most enduring problems left after the fall of the Soviet Union, is in the hands of the Minsk Group of regional powers chaired by France, Russia and the US. But both sides are heavily entrenched in their views and three decades of diplomacy has brought little progress.  The Minsk Group co-chairs said they were alarmed by the continued fighting and urged Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan "to take immediate steps" fully implement the Moscow ceasefire. Otherwise there could be "catastrophic consequences for the region", they added in a statement. Gela Vasadze, an analyst with Tbilisi-based think tank the Georgian Strategic Analysis Centre, said the current conflict was doing nothing to end the stalemate. "What is clear is that Azerbaijan did achieve some military success, but not anything dramatic. We can't say Baku is close to taking control of Karabakh," he told AFP.
High Syrian toll
Concerns remain over the role of Turkey, which has strongly backed Azerbaijan and has been widely accused of dispatching pro-Ankara Syrian militia to assist Baku. According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 1,450 such fighters have gone to Azerbaijan including 250 in the last week alone. The observatory said 119 of them had died, of whom 78 had been repatriated to Syria. Armenia is part of a regional Russia-led security group but Moscow has so far refused to become drawn in to the conflict. Yet analysts say Turkey's involvement will put further strain on the alliance between President Vladimir Putin and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran, which has borders with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and has expressed alarm over the fighting, said a drone crashed near its border with Azerbaijan and investigators were trying to find out its origin. Iran's arch-enemy Israel has supplied drones to Azerbaijan and Baku's ally Turkey is now also a major producer. Armenia, meanwhile, has home-produced drones.

US demands Turkey end ‘calculated provocation’ of ship
AFP/October 13/2020
WASHINGTON: The United States on Tuesday demanded that Turkey pull back an energy research ship that it has sent back to waters contested with Greece, calling the move a "calculated provocation." In a strongly worded statement, the State Department said the US "deplores" the decision by Turkey that came just after tensions with Greece had subsided. "We urge Turkey to end this calculated provocation and immediately begin exploratory talks with Greece," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement. "Turkey's announcement unilaterally raises tensions in the region and deliberately complicates the resumption of crucial exploratory talks between our NATO allies Greece and Turkey," she said. "Coercion, threats, intimidation and military activity will not resolve tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean." Turkey in August sent an exploratory ship into contested waters backed by warships, alarming both Cyprus and Greece, which carried out military drills. Tensions subsided after Turkey withdrew the ship and agreed to exploratory talks with Greece. But the Turkish navy said the Oruc Reis ship will restart activities in the region, angering Greece which said there can be no talks until it is withdrawn. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo late last month visited Greece in a show of support and hailed lowering tensions.

Assad Makes Rare Visit to Areas Hit by Fires in West Syria
Associated Press/October 13/2020
Syrian President Bashar Assad has made a rare public visit to the coastal province of Latakia where he toured areas that suffered heavy damage in last week's wildfires that killed three people, state media reported Tuesday. Assad's public visits to areas around Syria have been rare since the country's conflict began in March 2011. The conflict has killed nearly 400,000 and displaced half of Syria's population including more than five million who became refugees, mostly in neighboring countries. State news agency SANA said Assad visited the village of Ballouran to inspect the damage and met the local population during a tour to some areas that were affected by the fires, which were brought under control on Sunday. SANA did not say whether the visit took place on Tuesday or earlier. SANA said Assad was accompanied by the ministers of local administration and agriculture and vowed to help residents replant the burnt areas. Wildfires broke out in several Middle Eastern countries last week amid a heat wave that is unusual for this time of the year, leaving Syria particularly hard-hit. Three people were killed in the wildfires that also burned wide areas of forests, mostly in Latakia and the central province of Homs. On Saturday, special prayers for rain were held in mosques around different parts of Syria, in hopes that rain would ease the drought and stop the fires. Assad's hometown of Qardaha in Latakia province was hard hit by the fires that heavily damaged a building used as storage for the state-owned tobacco company, part of which collapsed.

Iran short of 'significant quantity' of potential bomb material: IAEA boss
ZURICH/Reuters /October 13/2020,
Iran does not at this stage have enough enriched uranium to make one nuclear bomb under the U.N. atomic watchdog’s official definition, the agency’s head told an Austrian paper. “The Iranians continue to enrich uranium, and to a much higher degree than they have committed themselves to. And this amount is growing by the month,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi told Die Presse in an interview published on its website on Saturday. Asked about how long Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon -- the so-called “breakout time”, he said: “In the IAEA we do not talk about breakout time. We look at the significant quantity, the minimum amount of enriched uranium or plutonium needed to make an atomic bomb. Iran does not have this significant quantity at the moment.”Iran denies ever having had a nuclear weapons programme, saying its nuclear programme is purely for energy purposes. The IAEA defines “significant quantity” as the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded. The most recent quarterly IAEA report on Iran last month said it had 2,105.4 kg of enriched uranium, far above the 202.8 kg limit in a 2015 deal with big powers but a fraction of the enriched uranium it had before the accord. It is also enriching to up to 4.5% purity, far below the 20% it achieved before the deal and the 90% that is considered weapons-grade.
Reporting by Michael Shields; Editing by Frances Kerry

Israel’s Cabinet Approves UAE Pact as Leaders Plan Meeting
Ivan Levingston/Bloomberg/October 13/2020,
The leaders of Israel and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to meet soon, the Israeli prime minister said on Monday, shortly before his cabinet approved an accord to normalize diplomatic relations with the Gulf Arab state.
Their meeting will be preceded by the visit of an Emirati delegation to Israel, according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. In a phone call over the weekend between Netanyahu and the UAE’s de facto leader, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, both invited the other to their respective countries, the statement said. No date or venue was given for the leaders’ meeting. The delegation will include the UAE finance and economy ministers and is expected to arrive in Israel next Tuesday, according to a reporter for Israel’s Wall News website. A visit planned for Sept. 22 was scrapped as Israel imposed a nationwide lockdown. A joint Israeli-U.S. delegation traveled to the UAE in August. The U.S.-brokered pact with the UAE -- Israel’s third with an Arab state -- was signed at the White House last month but requires the approval of the Israeli cabinet and parliament. Netanyahu also said his government was simultaneously working on completing a normalization agreement with Bahrain. The pacts are expected to unlock commercial opportunities, with Citigroup Inc. analysts on Monday forecasting up to $6.5 billion in trade between Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states, with associated investment elsewhere in the Middle East. While Israeli officials have stressed they expect other nations to follow the UAE lead in normalizing ties with the majority-Jewish state, the mood among many Arabs poses a significant barrier.In an Oct. 6 poll by Qatar-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies 88% of respondents in 13 Arab countries opposed recognizing Israel, citing reasons that included its occupation of territories claimed by the Palestinians for a state. The survey of 28,288 people had a margin of error of 2 to 3 percentage points.
— With assistance by Zainab Fattah

Tension between Turkey and Greece rise in crisis over eastern Mediterranean
Reuters/Tuesday 13 October 2020
A Turkish ship set sail on Monday to carry out seismic surveys in the eastern Mediterranean, prompting Greece to issue a furious new demand for European Union sanctions on Ankara in a row over offshore exploration rights. France expressed its concern after the Turkish vessel, the Oruc Reis, began its voyage. It said Turkey must stick to commitments it has made in the dispute, refrain from provocative actions and show good faith. Greece’s foreign ministry described the new voyage as a “major escalation” and a “direct threat to peace in the region”. Turkey, meanwhile, accused Athens of fueling tensions. The Oruc Reis intends to carry out work south of the Greek island of Kastellorizo, which is close to Turkey’s coast. Ankara had withdrawn the vessel from contested waters in the eastern Mediterranean last month to “allow for diplomacy” before an EU summit at which Cyprus sought sanctions against Turkey. “Turkey has proven it lacks credibility. All those who believed Turkey meant all it said before the European summit of Oct. 1-2 now stand corrected,” Greek government spokesman Stelios Petsas said on Monday. At the summit, the EU said it would punish Turkey if it continued operations in the region and that sanctions could be imposed as soon as December. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said Greece had no right to oppose its operations, which were 15 km (9.3 miles) from Turkey and 425 km from the Greek mainland. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also said that Ankara’s operations were within its continental shelf and it expected Greece to refrain from steps escalating tensions.
Navy escort
“They are doing everything to escalate tensions,” Akar said. “The Navy will provide the necessary escort and protection to our vessels as needed.”Energy Minister Fatih Donmez wrote on Twitter that Turkey would “continue to explore, dig and protect our rights”. Relations between Greece and Turkey are complicated by a range of disputes, from jurisdiction in the Mediterranean to ethnically split Cyprus. Greek government spokesman Petsas said Turkey had done the opposite of what it should have and the EU did not need to wait two months before taking action. “So the only issue here is to activate more drastic solutions, for Turkey to feel more stick and less carrot this time,” Petsas said. French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll said in Paris: “We expect Turkey to meet its commitments, abstain from new provocations and show concrete evidence of good faith.” In a phone call on Monday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told European Council President Charles Michel that progress was needed to improve ties between Ankara and the bloc. “President Erdogan, who stated that Greece was continuing steps to escalate tensions in the eastern Mediterranean despite Turkey’s well-intentioned approach, said he expected concrete steps from the EU to realize an Eastern Mediterranean conference proposed by Turkey,” the Turkish presidency said in a statement.

Unidentified drone lands in Iran near Azerbaijan border: Official
AFP/Tehran Tuesday 13 October 2020
Iran said an unidentified drone crashed near its border with Azerbaijan on Tuesday, as Baku and Yerevan accused each other of violating a truce in fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. The drone crashed in a village in Parsabad county, Ardebil province, along Iran’s northern border, deputy governor Behrouz Nedayi told state news agency IRNA. “The drone’s identity and cause of its crash in the area are being investigated,” he said, reporting no damage. According to IRNA, the drone “may belong to Azerbaijan or Armenia’s army given the fighting beyond Iran’s northern border”. The two neighbors have for decades been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnically Armenian area which broke away from Baku in a 1990s war that cost about 30,000 lives. Heavy fighting erupted on September 27 in one of the most combustible frozen conflicts left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Turkey detains over 160 individuals for suspected Gulen links
Reuters/AnkaraTuesday 13 October 2020
Turkish police detained dozens of people on Tuesday in a search for 167 suspects, many of them active duty soldiers, in a move against supporters of a Muslim preacher the government accuses of organizing a failed coup in 2016, state media reported. The detentions were the latest in a four-year-old crackdown targeting the network of US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen. He denies involvement in the July 2016 putsch, in which some 250 people were killed. Authorities launched an operation from the coastal province of Izmir in search of 110 suspects, including 16 pilots, colonels, and lieutenant colonels, across 26 provinces, broadcaster TRT Haber said. It said 89 suspects had been detained. In a separate operation targeting Gulen’s followers, police sought 57 other suspects across 15 provinces, the state-owned Anadolu news agency said, adding that 32 people had been detained. Police spokesmen were not immediately available for comment. Since the abortive putsch, some 80,000 people have been held pending trial and about 150,000 civil servants, military personnel and others sacked or suspended. More than 20,000 people had been expelled from the Turkish military. Rights groups and Turkey’s Western allies have criticized the scale of the crackdown, saying the government was using it as a pretext to quash dissent. The government has denied the accusation, saying the measures are necessary for national security.

Turkey slams ‘arrogant’ EU calls urging withdrawal from Syria
AFP,/Ankara Tuesday 13 October 2020
Turkey on Tuesday slammed what it called “arrogant” EU calls for Ankara to withdraw from Syria, accusing the bloc of “double standards.”Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu rebuked his Swedish counterpart Ann Linde who reiterated the European Union’s position urging Turkey to withdraw from Syria. “To use the word ‘urge’ is arrogant and incorrect in diplomacy,” Cavusoglu snapped during a news conference in Ankara with Linde standing alongside him. “You try to teach Turkey about international law and human rights ... but you practise double standards.”Since 2016, Turkey has launched three military operations in northern Syria to drive out Syrian Kurdish militia forces deemed as “terrorists” by Ankara. Turkey says they are linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which has waged a bloody insurgency against the state since 1984. Cavusoglu said Turkish withdrawal from northern Syria would mean backing the PKK listed as a terror group by Ankara and its Western allies. “Are you asking Turkey to withdraw from Idlib? No, because in this case refugees would flock to Europe,” he said. Ankara has also deployed forces in several military posts it established in northwestern Idlib as part of a 2018 deal with regime ally Russia.

Turkish authorities ban unprecedented Kurdish-language play
AFP/Tuesday 13 October 2020
Turkish authorities have banned a Kurdish-language play that was due to be shown on Tuesday in Istanbul’s municipal theatre for the first time in its 106-year history, organizers told AFP. The play “Beru” was included in the October program of the Istanbul Municipality City Theatre, which is funded by the opposition-run municipality, to much fanfare. No reason was given for the last-minute ban, but the Turkish state has long had a troubled relationship with its Kurdish minority. The municipal theatre has 10 stages dotted round Istanbul and had decided to take on some work from independent theatres that are struggling in the coronavirus pandemic. “Beru” was translated into Kurdish from “Trumpets and Raspberries,” a piece of work by Nobel Literature Prize winner Dario Fo, an Italian satirist and playwright. It was due to be shown in the Gaziosmanpasa neighborhood at 1730 GMT, performed by Teatra Jiyana Nu (New Life Theatre), an independent theatre group. The decision to ban the play was made by the local administration in Gaziosmanpasa and the theatre was only informed at 1300 GMT, one of the organizers told AFP. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AKP government took steps to improve cultural and linguistic rights as part of its Kurdish initiative announced in 2009 when he was prime minister. These included allowing Kurdish-language institutions and media outlets, and kindergartens that teach children in Kurdish. But with the resumption of violence in the Kurdish majority southeast between Turkish security forces and Kurdish militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after the collapse of a fragile truce 2015, the government has launched a crackdown on Kurdish media organizations and culture centers. That has increased in the aftermath of a failed 2016 coup. The government has removed 48 elected mayors of Kurdish-run municipalities and replaced them with “trustees”. Dozens of pro-Kurdish politicians have been arrested on terrorism charges.

US elections: Group of 33 former ambassadors to Middle East endorse Biden over Trump
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 13 October 2020
A group of 33 former US ambassadors recently penned an endorsement of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to the letter seen by Al Arabiya English. The list also includes several Middle East experts and analysts based in the US. Claiming that the United States has “lost the trust and friendship of many countries, alienated close allies, emboldened adversaries,” the signatories said they felt confident Biden would reverse this. In the letter, the main issues touched on involved Lebanon, Palestine and Israel. Biden, according to the letter, would reinstate aid halted under President Donald Trump to the Palestinian people. “It is for these reasons among many others that we believe that Joe Biden has the integrity, knowledge, and understanding to initiate and support policies that protect America’s interest and security,” the letter read. A majority of the 33 ambassadors were appointed by former Presidents Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, who are Democrats. Daniel Benaim, the former Middle East Advisor to VP Biden, was also one of the supporters. Robert Ford and Ryan Crocker were among the most notable diplomats, considered closer to the Republican Party, to sign and endorse Biden. Several were appointed by former President George W. Bush or served under the Republican president’s term. Trump has taken an aggressive approach toward Iran, withdrawing from the Iran deal engineered by Obama and his team. Washington says the maximum-pressure campaign has drained the Iranian regime of resources previously used to fund militias and proxies worldwide. Biden and the Democrats have openly stated their willingness to re-enter the Iran deal. However, the recent snapback mechanism that was used by the Trump administration will make it difficult to undo economic sanctions imposed on Tehran. Democrats also believe the Trump administration has been biased in favor of Israel when dealing with the Arab-Israeli conflict. However, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recently signed normalization deals with Tel Aviv and more Arab countries are expected to follow suit in the near future. Under the deal dubbed the “Abraham Accords,” Israel halted its annexation of parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

Palestinian man on hunger-strike close to death, says Israeli rights group
AFP/Tuesday 13 October 2020
A Palestinian man on hunger strike for nearly 80 days since his arrest by Israel in late July is “on the verge of death,” Israeli rights group B’Tselem said Monday. Maher al-Akhras, 49, was arrested near Nablus and placed in administrative detention, a policy that Israel uses to hold suspected militants without charge.The married father of six launched his strike to protest the policy. He has been arrested several times previously by Israel, which accuses him of having ties to the Islamic Jihad militant group. On Monday, some 40 people held a rally in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah to support him.
“Our people will not let Maher al-Akhras down,” said Khader Adnan, one of those taking part in the rally, and who has himself carried out a several hunger strikes in Israeli captivity. Adnan called on the international community and Palestinian leaders to pressure Israel over the case. “Do more over the coming hours,” he said. “We are in the critical stage.” Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh demanded al-Akhras’s “immediate release,” according to a statement on the official Wafa news agency. Al-Akhras was transferred in early September to Kaplan Hospital, south of Tel Aviv. His lawyers have appealed on multiple occasions to Israel’s Supreme Court for his release, including at a hearing on Monday. Israel’s top court deferred a ruling on Monday’s request, saying the case remained under review, according to a summary of the hearing seen by AFP.
AFP made repeated efforts to contact his legal team on Monday. Israel’s administrative detention system, inherited from the British mandate, allows the internment of prisoners for renewable periods of up to six months each, without bringing charges. Israel says the procedure allows authorities to hold suspects and prevent attacks while continuing to gather evidence, but critics and rights groups say the system is abused. Around 355 Palestinians were being held under administrative detention orders as of August, including two minors, according to B’Tselem.
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 13-14/2020

Iran-backed militias announce ‘conditional’ cease-fire against U.S. in Iraq
Louisa Loveluck/The Washington Post/October 13/2020
BEIRUT — A group of Iran-backed militias said Sunday that it has agreed to a "conditional" cease-fire against U.S.-linked interests in Iraq on the condition that Washington present a timetable for the withdrawal of its troops.
The militias have plagued U.S.-linked diplomatic and military targets for months, firing rockets at embassies and bases and targeting Iraqis who drive logistics convoys serving the U.S.-led coalition.
The Trump administration has responded by threatening to shutter the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, a move that Iraqi officials say will accelerate Iran’s ascent in the tug of war that the two countries have fought over Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
Mohammed Mohie, a spokesman for the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah group, said Sunday that attacks would halt while the militias waited for the U.S.-led coalition to detail its timeline for full withdrawal. “But this truce is conditional, and the condition is that we will accept their retreat,” he said. He did not provide a timeline for the process. Mohie said he spoke on behalf of the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Commission, a new body that announced itself with a similar statement Saturday. Neither Mohie’s comments nor the statement appeared to have come in consultation with the U.S.-backed force to which it referred. The U.S.-backed force did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. It was unclear how many groups the new body represented. New Iraqi leader tries to rein in Iran-backed militias, but task proves daunting
Iraq’s parliament urged the expulsion of U.S. troops in January, after President Trump ordered the killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Soleimani had been a talismanic figure for Iraq’s militias. Also killed in that strike was Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
The strike sent tensions between Washington and Tehran soaring. Iraqis braced for the confrontation. Since then, the U.S.-led coalition has departed from smaller bases across Iraq and promised to reduce its troop presence from 5,200 to 3,000. Although the coalition officially attributes that move to the Iraqi military’s increased capacity to take on what remains of the Islamic State militant group, senior officials have acknowledged that it came in response to concerns about the heightened risk of attacks by Iran-backed militias.
In the event that the U.S.-led coalition does not provide clarity on its timeline for withdrawal, Mohie said, the militia factions would use “all weapons available to them.”Kataib Hezbollah is one of a handful of powerful Iran-backed groups that have served as part of Iraq’s conventional security forces since helping Iraqi and coalition forces defeat the Islamic State in the country.
But in recent months, apparent splinter groups have taken responsibility for rocket and roadside bomb attacks. Western officials in Baghdad say these are probably front groups for elements within the larger Iran-backed groups, allowing the latter to avoid retaliatory U.S. attacks.
It was unclear whether the weekend’s announcements had altered that playbook. Iraq’s military reported Sunday that an Iraqi convoy carrying logistics equipment for the coalition was targeted with an improvised explosive device, this time on the highway between Samawah and Diwaniyah in the south.

As Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates Normalize ties, China Looks On Varily
Michael Singh/War On The Rocks/October 13/2020
In a world starved for good news, the normalization agreements that Israel recently signed at the White House with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were met with near-universal praise. In a region more often associated with risk, the deals seemed to signal opportunity — for stability, for peace, and for profit. One place where the news was not greeted so effusively, however, was in Beijing, where a government spokesman barely acknowledged the agreements despite China’s strong relations with both Israel and the Gulf Arab states. China’s wariness may turn out to be well-founded. While the growing Arab-Israeli rapprochement may be good for the Middle East, it poses problems for Chinese strategy in the region.
The most immediate benefit of the normalization agreements is likely to be economic. Up to now, Middle Eastern countries have traded heavily with China, but very little among themselves. China in recent years has been a dominant source for imports and destination for exports for almost every country in the region. In 2019, for example, the Middle East as a region exported more than three times as much by value to China than it did to the United States. Viewed at the country level, this dependency appears even more acute: Oman, for example, sends more than 40 percent of its exports to China, whereas Egypt imports nearly 25 times as much from China as it exports.
These unequal trade dynamics have conferred on Beijing enormous leverage of the sort that in other contexts — whether imposing sanctions on South Korean businesses in retaliation for U.S.-South Korean missile defense cooperation in 2017, withholding rare earths from Japan in 2010, or restricting imports of Philippine bananas in 2012 — it has not hesitated to use for political ends. This in turn has made regional states resistant to calls from Washington to reduce their dependence on China, even as Beijing has made inroads in strategic areas such as the provision of 5G and surveillance technology. This dependence is not only the result of trends such as America’s growing energy independence, but the Middle East’s own meager internal trade. Whereas about 60 percent of the European Union’s trade, for example, is internal to the region, intraregional trade in the Middle East barely tops the single digits, behind that of almost every other region of the world.
Israel’s deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain could help to reverse these trends. Both Israel and the United Arab Emirates are among the region’s top three sources and destinations for foreign direct investment, meaning that each could offer the other an alternative to the Chinese capital, whichexposes them both to political demands from Beijing as well as irritation from Washington. Furthermore, companies like DP World, the Dubai-based port operator that is the world’s fourth largest, could offer alternatives for projects like the operation of Haifa’s port, a portion of which was awarded to Shanghai International Port Group to the chagrin of the U.S. Navy’s Sixth Fleet, which makes calls there.
The normalization deals may also complicate Beijing’s diplomatic approach to the Middle East, which might be described as “friends with everyone, allies with no one.” China studiously avoids the appearance of taking sides in the region’s manifold conflicts, ensuring, for example, to sign nearly identical agreements in Riyadh and Tehran in 2016 during President Xi Jinping’s first visit to the region, and hastening to recognize even the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government in 2006 despite Beijing’s professed opposition to Islamism.
As the region’s political blocs become more coherent, however, this balancing act may prove more difficult. An isolated Israel, frequently and disproportionately on the receiving end of international opprobrium, has long needed any friends it could get, meaning it was in no position to rebuff China’s friendship despite Beijing’s support for Iran. This will be less the case as Israel is embraced by its neighbors. Likewise, a normal relationship with Israel gives the United Arab Emirates more options — not just for capital, but for security assistance, political support, and any number of other benefits for which states of the Middle East have long had to look outside the region. Together, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain may prove more able to hold China accountable for its regional policies than each felt emboldened to do separately.
Finally, the Israeli deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain may be an important step in the formulation of a new U.S. strategy in the Middle East that preserves American influence there while freeing resources to focus on great-power rivals like China and Russia. America’s being tied down in the Middle East has proved a double benefit to Beijing. Not only has China doubtless welcomed Washington’s seemingly endless Mideast distractions, but it has been able to free-ride on U.S.-provided security in the region, without which its economic investments and oil routes would be more vulnerable and would demand the commitment of scarce Chinese diplomatic and military resources. These benefits for Beijing have been ironically amplified by persistent anxieties among U.S. regional partners — stoked in part by political rhetoric in Washington — that American forces may depart. This has fueled a tendency on the part of regional states to hedge their bets and seek out greater cooperation with China and Russia, including in the form of arms purchases.
Israel’s rapprochement with its Gulf neighbors may spell the beginning of the end of China’s free ride. While scaling back American ambitions in the region is important to successfully shifting the U.S. national security emphasis to Asia, it also carries risks, as American interests — whether the prevention of terrorism or countering nuclear proliferation — will continue to face threats emanating from the Middle East. For this reason, Washington has increasingly sought to work through partners. Doing so successfully depends to a great extent on those partners’ capabilities, and their willingness and ability to work together. The United States, regardless of who wins the presidency in November, is likely to seek to use the recent normalization deals as the seed for a nascent regional security partnership — one in which American allies work jointly to address mutual threats with modest, high-end assistance from the United States. What’s more, any such partnership is likely to be bound together by American military systems and training, narrowing or closing off potential inroads for Russian and Chinese arms sales. If such an effort is successful, the United States will be able to more confidently shift forces to other theaters while preserving its regional influence.
None of this is to say that the normalization agreements will be all bad for Beijing, or an unalloyed good for the United States. The deals are not targeted at China. The states involved will maintain close commercial ties with Beijing, and will resist — perhaps now in concert with one another — anything they view as an unreasonable effort by Washington to curtail them. What’s more, among the initial targets of Israeli, Emirati, and Bahraini cooperation are likely to be Turkey and Qatar, both close partners of the United States. It is just American policymakers’ luck that as one rift between U.S. allies is closing, another seems to be yawning ever wider.
Yet whatever reservations may be in order, the Israeli-UAE and Israeli-Bahraini agreements are, beyond a doubt, a net positive for U.S. interests in the region and a challenge for American rivals. China in particular will find its enormous economic influence in the region — and the diplomatic leverage it buys — diminished, and its ability to maintain cordial and profitable relations with all sides of the region’s conflicts undermined. This in turn may force Beijing to revise its strategy in the region, becoming more responsive to partners’ political demands, to which its large regional economic footprint has left it exposed. Perhaps even more important for Beijing and other U.S. rivals, however, the agreements could help free up the United States to finally shift more attention toward Asia. And they underscore a key comparative advantage the United States enjoys as great-power competition heats up once again — its continuing ability to attract allies and build partnerships among them.
*Michael Singh is managing director and Lane-Swig senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
 

Iraqi government approves economic reforms to extricate country from crisis
Sinan Mahmoud/The National/October 13/ 2020
The government and international organisations have warned that the country is heading to uncertainty without real economic reforms.
The Iraqi Cabinet on Tuesday approved a long-awaited economic reform plan aimed at salvaging the country’s ailing economy battered by decades of war, mismanagement and endemic corruption.
“We are facing dangerous consequences as a result of accumulation [of irresponsible activities] from the past and that we have to go ahead with these reforms,” Iraq’s Minister of Finance, Ali Allawi, told a press conference.
Mr Allawi didn’t go into the details of the plan, but described it as a “road map for the reforms for the coming three to five years.”
The three-year plan addresses the economic and fiscal crisis mainly through cutting public spending, stopping waste, fighting corruption and moving away from oil revenues, according to an executive summary seen by The National.
It targets the productive and service sectors of the government to improve poor public services and debilitated infrastructure, says the summary. For the private sector, it calls for loans and facilitation for procedures in order to create jobs.
The plan will be sent to the parliament for final endorsement.
The Iraqi government and international organisations have warned that the country is on the brink of catastrophe and that it is heading towards uncertainty without meaningful economic reforms. The main challenge the Iraqi economy faces is that it relies almost completely on the sale of oil to fill state coffers - oil revenues currently provide nearly 95 per cent of state spending. Plummeting oil prices on the international market have left the government struggling to pay salaries to its bloated public sector and forcing it to stop projects.
Widespread corruption and mismanagement since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein has also drained government resources. Iraq was ranked 162 of the 180 most corrupt countries by Transparency International in 2019.
Tired of corruption and lack of opportunities, young Iraqis took to the streets in October 2019 in a protest which has lasted a year, calling for change.
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has worsened the situation as the government diverted much of its resources to contain the disease.
The finance minister has touted his plan as a “vision to tackle all the problems in the structure of the Iraqi economy.”
“The problem in Iraq is we have a disfigured economy from all aspects…amidst a worrying international situation and that we can’t continue like that,” Mr Allawi told a local TV Channel early this week.
Realising that his plan could spark public backlash, Mr Allawi warned Iraqis that without reforms “the situation will worsen not only for themselves, but for their sons and grandsons.” Some of the proposed reforms can be achieved within months, while others need a year or two, he said. He added that the plan will help prepare the country for the post-oil age.
In a fresh study on Iraq issued early this month, the World Bank warned that the country’s economy is set to shrink by 9.7 per cent this year, its worst performance since 2003.
“Iraq is on the brink of catastrophe,” the Washington-based lender warned in its study, Breaking Out of Fragility.
It says the country is “caught in a fragility trap” as it faces increasing political instability and fragmentation, geopolitical risks, growing social unrest, and a deepening divide between the state and its citizens.
Dropped oil prices, coronavirus pandemic and existing fragilities “could lead to economic meltdown and a new cycle of violence and conflict – or they could provide an opportunity to fundamentally realign the government’s priorities, advance much-needed reforms and tackle the deep structural issues that hold back progress."
To address the fiscal deficit, Iraqi government paid salaries and other commitments through borrowing from local and international lenders. In June, the parliament endorsed a law to allow the government to borrow $5 billion from international lenders and 15 trillion Iraqi Dinar (about $12.7 billion) from local banks.
By September, it ran out of money and asked the parliament to endorse another borrowing law to secure resources for the rest of the year, Mr Allawi said.
Based on the Iraqi Oil Ministry estimation, oil revenues for the rest of the year will not exceed 15 trillion Iraqi Dinar (about $12.7 billion), below the nearly 58 trillion Iraqi Dinar (about $49 billion) needed for paying salaries and other commitments, he said.

Trump’s latest sanctions threaten to add to Iran's currency crisis
Bryant Harris/The National/October 14/2020
Measures could cripple Tehran’s financial sector while expanding hurdles to humanitarian trade
US President Donald Trump’s newest sanctions on Iran's entire financial sector seek to cut Tehran off from the global system and will probably exacerbate its currency crisis. The measures will probably cause inflation to soar and discourage humanitarian trade as Covid-19 continues to ravage the country.
Iran hawks in the Trump administration and in Congress spent the past several months pushing the president to impose the stringent sanctions on virtually the 18 Iranian banks. On Thursday the US Treasury Department announced that any company conducting business with the 18 designated banks would face US sanctions if they did not wind down their transactions by mid-November.
“You’ll see the immediate impact of the exchange mark on both the dollar and the euro appreciate greatly against the rial,” Richard Goldberg, a former Trump national security adviser on Iran, told The National.
“This is going to contribute to the hyperinflation we’re seeing on the ground. Prices for consumer goods will likely rise.
“This will put enormous strain on the regime to have to continue to pump more of their reserves into the market to stabilise the system, which means they’re drawing down what foreign exchange reserves they have.”
The US dollar is worth about 42,100 Iranian rial.
Mr Goldberg returned to the hawkish Foundation for Defence of Democracies after leaving the White House this year. Shahrzad Noorbaloochi, a sanctions lawyer, offered a similar assessment.
“There’s going to be a shortage of foreign currency for the central bank to do anything,” Ms Noorbaloochi told The National.
“Iran’s foreign assets are going to be de facto frozen because moving money in and out of Iran is going to be subject to secondary sanctions now, so that foreign currency is needed for conducting any sort of transactions that involve imports of goods.” Mr Trump’s latest sanctions could also expel Iran from a key financial messaging network based out of Europe, further frustrating its ability to import goods. The Foundation for Defence of Democracies and several key Republican senators had lobbied Mr Trump to impose sanctions Iran’s entire financial sector in the months leading up to the designation.
“Designating Iran’s financial sector in its entirety would immediately blacklist all remaining Iranian banks and force Swift to disconnect them,” wrote six Republican senators, led by Tom Cotton, in a September letter to Mr Trump.
It remains unclear whether the US Treasury Department would go so far as to sanction Swift should it fail to disconnect the Iranian banks.
But Mr Goldberg said the secondary sanctions on Iran’s financial sector would also extend to the the financial messaging network based in Brussels.
He said the sanctions could be applied in ways to avoid interrupting the network’s service and floated punishing Swift’s board of directors and senior officials if they did not disconnect those banks.
US sanctions had previously forced Iran out of Swift, but Tehran was able to rejoin in 2016 after president Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, from which Mr Trump withdrew in 2018. Former vice president Joe Biden, who hopes to unseat Mr Trump in the US election, has pledged to re-enter the nuclear deal if Iran complies with the accord. Critics of the Iran sanctions, including several European countries, say the new penalties will further block Tehran's ability to import agricultural and medical supplies, despite an exception for humanitarian trade issued by the US Treasury Department in February.
“The complexity of figuring out whether or not your times are within the scope of these general licences and authorisations is a very heavy burden, so a lot of companies don’t really have an incentive to pursue that,” Ms Noorbaloochi said. “They don’t really necessarily need to undertake all of those costs in order to provide those goods to Iran.” Proponents of Mr Trump’s maximum pressure policy say the Swiss Humanitarian Trade Mechanism allows Iran to import medical and agricultural goods.So far it has only enabled one humanitarian transaction with Iran, on behalf of a Swiss pharmaceutical company.

How two 16th-century pirates inspired Erdogan's foreign policy
David Lepeska//The National/October 13/2020
Turkey's President wants to plunder the Mediterranean, but his adventurism risks turning his country into a naval outlaw.
“Turkey will get back its fair share in the Mediterranean, Aegean and the Black Sea,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared in August. It was a bold statement in an increasingly heated dispute over maritime boundaries.
What does Mr Erdogan see as fair? The answer lies in Turkey's latest foreign policy doctrine “Mavi Vatan”, or “Blue Homeland”, an irredentist vision that aims to resuscitate an almost-Ottoman level of maritime influence.
In the mid-16th century, the Ottoman Empire held sway over the entire Mediterranean Sea, mainly thanks to a pair of bold seafaring brothers. Born on what is now the Greek island of Lesbos, Oruc and his younger brother Khizr emerged as internationally renowned corsairs for hire. The brothers gained the backing of one of the world’s most powerful leaders, Yavuz Sultan Selim, and built a capable Ottoman navy. The empire soon extended its reach to Algeria, and after Khizr, by then known as Barbarossa (“red beard”), defeated a Venetian-Spanish alliance off the Greek coast in 1538, the Ottomans controlled all the islands in the Aegean. Most historians view the brothers as pirates and slave traders, yet Turkish schoolchildren are taught the brave exploits of Oruc Reis (Turkish for “chief”) and Barbarossa Hayrettin (“best of the faith”). Now, Mr Erdogan uses seismic research vessels named after them to signal his country’s desire to defend its maritime rights and challenge regional powers.
Devised by retired naval officer Cem Gürdeniz, it views the eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Sea – to be Turkey’s Blue Homeland. It first made headlines a year ago when Mr Erdogan gave a speech in front of a map laying out Turkish control over more than 460,000 square kilometres in those three seas. Two weeks ago, the Turkish presidency marked the anniversary of that 1538 victory over Christian powers with a video re-enactment of Hayrettin battling Crusaders. “The blood of my ancestors flows through my veins,” the President’s communications head, Fahrettin Altun, said in a tweet releasing the video. “We die and take lives for the blue homeland.”
The appearance of the Turkish survey vessel Oruc Reis and its accompanying warships in waters off the Greek island of Kastellorizo last month spurred Athens to place its armed forces on high alert, putting the fellow Nato members on the verge of war. Only when the Oruc Reis returned to port in Antalya a few weeks later were Turkey and Greece able to begin preliminary talks. The same day, however, another ship, the Barbaros Hayrettin Pasha, was sent to drill in waters claimed by Cyprus, where it is expected to remain until the second week of November.
Over the past two years, Turkey has sent half a dozen research vessels accompanied by warships to drill in waters claimed by Cyprus. Last year, it signed a maritime borders deal with Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord that vastly expands its Mediterranean claims, enveloping all of the waters around the Greek island of Crete.
Yet this maritime assertiveness is less about natural gas and potential energy revenues than it might appear. For one thing, most analysts are now convinced that any natural gas recovered from the eastern Mediterranean will be unlikely, by the time it reaches the market, to find buyers in either Europe or Asia.
In line with Blue Homeland, Turkey has in recent years sharply increased its naval power. This includes domestically produced ships and submarines and a light aircraft carrier due next year. It has flexed this renewed maritime might repeatedly in drills at sea, with another planned for later this month.
But the flexing is not only at sea. The naval build-up is part of a massive expansion of Turkey’s arms industry that has instilled greater military assertiveness. Turkey has a troop presence or is backing proxy forces in as many as seven Arab states – Qatar, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia and possibly Yemen – and has begun using foreigners to fight its wars. Thanks to Turkey’s sizable footprint in northern Syria, Mr Erdogan is able to dispatch thousands of Syrian rebels to fight in Libya and in the latest Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict for little pay. This avoids the potential political disaster of Turkish troops returning from some distant conflict in body bags, which would be a particularly bitter pill during an acute economic crisis.
Such practices, however, draw regional ire. Last month, Egypt called on allies in the Arab League to join forces to counter Turkish aggressions in the region, particularly in Syria. Saudi Arabia has been boycotting Turkish goods for more than a year, and recent reports suggest that Oman, Bahrain and others might soon join that effort.
What about foes further afield? A key element of Blue Homeland is a worldview that blames Turkey’s troubles on Western powers and positions the US and Europe as rivals, in spite of their formal military alliances with Ankara. But the US is neck-deep in a presidential election season while its leader struggles to beat covid-19 on multiple levels. And though Nato is hoping to broker Turkey-Greece talks, the EU has done little more than repeatedly denounce Turkish aggressions and warn of sanctions. At a summit early this month, EU leaders kicked the sanctions can down the road yet again, to a December meeting.
The clock is ticking. On the sidelines of the latest session of the UN General Assembly in New York, the main actors in Libya inched toward a peace deal. As things stand now, any resolution to that conflict is likely to leave the GNA in control of Tripoli, which would encourage Turkey to fulfil the ambitions of its maritime borders deal and extend drilling further into the Mediterranean.The Oruc Reis left port and headed into open waters last week. Days later, Turkish news outlets reported that its next drilling destination would be Crete.
*David Lepeska is a veteran journalist who has been covering Turkey for the past decade

Syria’s calm before the storm
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October 13/2020
There appears to be a temporary lull on the military and political fronts in Syria, suggesting that the principal actors are using this period to prepare for the major battles to come.
Idlib is at the center of the impending storm. Turkey has boosted its military forces to about 12,000 in 140 bases across the Idlib province. It is also training rebel cadres at 150 camps, while working closely with the militants from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), who control most of the city and its environs, while contending with the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militants from the former Al-Nusra Front.
Following the cease-fire agreement with Russia in March this year, Russian and Turkish troops had been patrolling the M4 highway that connects Aleppo with Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. However, militants, fearing they were covering up government preparations for an assault, began to attack them. Their fears were well-founded: The Assad regime has been carrying out heavy bombardment on the province, while its ground forces have also been strengthened.
Turkey has also consolidated itself in northeastern Syria. In October 2019, under “Operation Peace Spring,” its troops created an enclave between Ras Al-Ayn and Tell Abyad, which constitutes a buffer zone between Turkey and the areas under Kurdish control to the south. This enclave has been integrated politically and economically with the Turkish provinces across the border.
The recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has provided a fresh opportunity for Turkey’s military outreach. Ankara is said to have deployed about 1,500 Syrian militants to join Azeri forces. Most of these militants have been lured by the promise of monthly salaries of about $1,500. On Oct. 5, it was reported that 50 of these Syrian fighters had been killed.
Russia, the other major player on the Syrian stage, completed five years in the country last month. Motivated by a desire to prevent externally sponsored regime change, Russia has served its interests well: Its military has protected the Assad regime and given it control over about 65 percent of the country. Moscow is also fighting the remnants of Daesh in Syria’s large desert areas.
With bases in Syria and a leading role in Libya and the Mediterranean, Russia has successfully projected its great power position. Its major effort now is diplomatic: Moscow is the principal arbiter of security for regional leaders who solicit a Russian role to safeguard their interests.
The third actor in Syria is the US. It is keeping a rump force of about 500 soldiers in the Kurdish-controlled areas to ensure the oil wells in the region do not go back to government control, while seeking to restrain the expansion of Iranian influence. On the military side, its principal effort is to track and eliminate extremist leaders with the help of drones; in recent months, a number of prominent Al-Qaeda-affiliated leaders in Syria have been killed.
On the diplomatic front, the US is attempting to bring the various Kurdish factions together. On Sept. 20, Washington’s Special Representative for Syria Engagement James Jeffrey organized a meeting of all factions, which announced the setting up of the “Supreme Kurdish Reference” that is tasked with developing a vision and strategy to realize its long-term interests.
Iran is the oldest supporter of the Assad regime and has provided its own militia from the Quds Force and other fighters from neighboring countries to protect the government. While it has close bilateral ties with Turkey, it disagrees with the latter’s aim of maintaining a long-term military presence in Syria. Iranian-backed fighters are with the government’s forces outside Idlib and will play a major role if fighting occurs.
Arab countries are gradually reaching out to Syria, with the Omani ambassador returning to his post in early October. The UAE and Bahrain had previously reopened their missions in Syria. Concerns relating to the expansion of Turkey’s presence in Syria have spurred Arab interest in rebuilding ties with Damascus. Egypt has been particularly active in maintaining high-level official interactions.
It is very likely the two-year stalemate relating to Idlib will end in a Russia-backed Syrian government assault.
What, then, is the short-term prognosis for Syria? It is very likely that the two-year stalemate relating to Idlib will end in a Russia-backed Syrian government assault. This promises to be a long and bloody struggle, with heavy civilian casualties. If Turkey does not detach itself from the HTS, there could even be direct encounters between its forces and those of the government, with heavy Russian military involvement. Given that this will create a deep divide with Russia and thus jeopardize Turkey’s neo-Ottoman outreach across the region — to Iraq, Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Mediterranean — it is likely that it will opt for caution and not obstruct the attack.
The other matter that relates to the Kurds will require a leading Russian diplomatic role to win their confidence and obtain agreements that will ensure Turkish security as well as Syrian national unity and Kurdish autonomy. This will provide the opportunity to shape a new political beginning for the country.
The future of Syria is uncertain. The coming weeks could either see carnage or herald a new dawn for this war-ravaged and traumatized country.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.