LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 12/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october12.19.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another,
who will give you what is your own
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16/09-12/:”I tell you, make
friends for yourselves by means of dishonest wealth so that when it is gone,
they may welcome you into the eternal homes. ‘Whoever is faithful in a very
little is faithful also in much; and whoever is dishonest in a very little is
dishonest also in much. If then you have not been faithful with the dishonest
wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches? And if you have not been
faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own?”.'
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on October 11-12/2019
Betrayal Of the Kurds In Syria: What a Shame On Trump, The Arab Countries and
the European Union
Nasrallah, Bassil Agree on Need to 'Secure Economic Stability'
Oil Importers Say Crisis Resolved after Gas Station Owners Declare Open-Ended
Strike
Security Forces Scuffle with Sabaa Party Activists in Parliament
Khalil Urges Referral of Budget to Parliament, Fneish Urges Export via Syria
Salameh: Dollar Available in Market, Monetary Situation Stable
UK Minister of State for Middle East Ends Two-Day Visit to Lebanon
Geagea: Lebanon Needs Reforms
British Envoy Begins Official Visit to Beirut
Jumblatt, Mikati tackle juncture
Kouyoumdjian, Tarraf discuss means to bolster cooperation with European Union
Bou Saab, Tarraf tackle indirect repercussions of Turkish military operation on
Lebanon
Foucher tours Akkar, visits monastery of Saint Doumit for Carmelite fathers in
Kobayat
Berri, Murrison meet
Hariri receives Jordanian Agriculture Minister
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on October 11-12/2019
Explosion hits near US outpost in Syria’s Kobani
Trump: We don’t want Turkey killing a lot of people in Syria
SDF commander confirms five ISIS prisoners escape after Turkey shelling
‘Border on fire’ as Turkey intensifies Syria campaign
Heavy fighting as Kurdish-led SDF holds off Turkish assault
Thousands flee, hospital closed after bombings in northeast Syria: Aid groups
Netherlands to freeze weapons exports to Turkey
Pentagon ‘strongly’ encourages Turkey to ‘discontinue’ action in northeast Syria
Pentagon Approves Deployment of 3,000 More Troops to Saudi Arabia
Turkey says 121 detained for social media posts
Iran Tanker Hit by Suspected Missile Strikes near Saudi Port
Senior Iranian cleric claims Iraq protests being manipulated to stop pilgrims
Daughter of jailed UK-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe returns to UK
Suspect Arrested after Mass Stabbing at UK Shopping Center
Khalid bin Salman, Pompeo discuss regional security, military cooperation
US to send more troops, defense equipment to Saudi Arabia
German MPs blame Iran after visit to Saudi Aramco attack site
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on October 11-12/2019
Betrayal Of the Kurds In Syria: What a Shame On Trump, The Arab Countries and
the European Union/Elias Bejjani/October 10/2019
Words of God and the Bible Only Can rebuke the evil./Elie Abillama/October
11/2019
Thousands Flee, Hundreds Reported Dead in Turkish Attack on U.S.-allied Kurds in
Syria/Reuters/October 11/2019
Editorial || Netanyahu’s Iran Policy Has Collapsed/Haaretz Editorial/October
11/2019
It’s craziness here’: Kurdish forces struggle to contain world’s unwanted ISIS
prisoners in Syria/Stewart.Bell/Global News/October 11.2019
The Swamp of The Turkish Syria Invasion/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/October
11/2019
A Game of All Losers in Syria/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2019
Three Countries That Prospered in the ’10s Are in Trouble/Noah Smith/Asharq Al
Awsat/October 11/2019
France's Homegrown Terrorism/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 11/2019
China: Modern Blueprint for Global Power/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone
Institute/October 11/2019
Trump’s Syria surprise merely a reversion to form/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab
News/October 11/2019
Turkish assault aggravates Middle East tensions/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October
11/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on October 11-12/2019
Betrayal Of the Kurds In Syria: What a Shame
On Trump, The Arab Countries and the European Union
Elias Bejjani/October 10/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79349/elias-bejjani-betrayal-of-the-kurds-in-syria-what-a-shame-on-trump-the-arab-countries-and-the-european-union/
History will throw in its Dustbin all those world leaders and
politicians who either conspired and worked openly or covertly against the
Syrian Kurds, or kept silent and did not take a courageous, loud and ethical
stance in regards to the criminal Turkish invasion.
What is important and meaningful are the practical acts and not the rhetoric
words.
What could make a difference is actually what is going on the ground, in the
battlefield and not in the comfortable offices.
On the ground Erdogan’s Turkish Army is viciously invading North Syria in a bid
to terrorise and subdue the Syria Kurds and if needed in accordance to his
schemes to massacre them.
Erdogan’s invasion is taking place, while Mr. Trump, Europe and all the Arab
countries are fighting him back rhetorically by mere words and empty statements.
Their rhetoric empty statements are meaningless and definitely would not stop
the invasion, but on the contrary are blessing and hailing it.
Simply and as all the world is sadly witnessing Mr. Trump and the West did not
only betray and abandon the Kurds in North Syria, but also conspired against
them with no shame or gratitude.
They all with not even one exception gave a green light to the Turkish dictator,
Erdogan to freely slaughter the Kurds and conquer their Syrian homeland.
In conclusion words and statements are not what the Kurds want and need and
definitely all those world leaders who betrayed the Kurds in Syrian will end in
the Dustbin of history.
Nasrallah, Bassil Agree on Need to 'Secure Economic
Stability'
Naharnet/October 11/2019
Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Free Patriotic Movement
chief MP Jebran Bassil have agreed on the need to secure economic stability in
the country, during a meeting that was held overnight, Hizbullah announced on
Friday. A statement issued by the party’s media department said the “lengthy”
meeting tackled the regional and local developments and was held in the presence
of Wafiq Safa, the head of Hizbullah’s Liaison and Coordination Unit. “The
lengthy meeting focused on the domestic situations and there was agreement on
the need to secure economic stability through carry out all the measures
necessary to control and improve the economic situation,” the Hizbullah
statement said. Nasrallah and Bassil also stressed “the need to boost the
state’s revenues and issue the 2020 state budget with drastic reforms aimed at
advancing the economic and financial situations and moving from a rentier
economy to a productive economy.”They also agreed on the importance of “slashing
the deficit of the balance of payments and resolving the refugee problem.”The
meeting also tackled “the importance of preserving political stability and
security, activating parliamentary and governmental work, vitalizing the work of
inspection institutions and combating corruption.”
Oil Importers Say Crisis Resolved after Gas Station Owners Declare Open-Ended
Strike
Naharnet/October 11/2019
Lebanon’s oil importing companies announced Friday evening that they will resume
delivering fuel to stations and distributors as of Saturday morning and that
they will get paid in Lebanese pound, hours after distributors and the owners of
stations declared an open-ended strike. The agreement was reached in a meeting
between Prime Minister Saad Hariri and a delegation from the importing
companies. “An agreement was reached on a certain mechanism that will quickly
resolve this crisis, and as of tomorrow morning, fuel will be delivered to the
stations, which in turn will resume selling gasoline in a normal manner,”
Information Minister Jamal al-Jarrah announced. “I declare, in the name of the
importing companies, that the stations will receive the gasoline as of tomorrow,
and things will return to 100% normalcy,” Jarrah said, adding that “there is no
need to panic.”
A spokesman for the companies said the payment mechanism set by Banque du Liban
had witnessed “some problems, which were resolved today.”Gas station owners and
fuel distributors had announced an open-ended strike starting Friday, which
prompted consumers to scramble to stations where long queues were formed. The
Syndicate of Gas Station Owners announced the strike in a televised TV statement
protesting that suppliers were only selling them fuel in dollars. The strike
will prolong they said “until the competent authorities issue a written order on
the mandatory supply of fuel to gas stations.”
The group said that banks were not supplying them with the dollars they need to
pay importers and suppliers because of a shortage in reserves. Lebanese media
for the past two weeks reported that banks and money exchange houses were
rationing their dollar sales over a feared shortage in reserves.
The syndicate had said that petrol station owners were having to purchase
dollars on the black market or from money exchange offices at higher rates.
Lebanese officials, including President Michel Aoun and Central Bank governor
Riad Salameh, have tried to play down the risk of an economic collapse.
Economic growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political
deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the impact of eight years of war in
neighboring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- higher
than 150 percent of GDP -- according to the finance ministry.
Eighty percent of that figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks.
Security Forces Scuffle with Sabaa Party Activists in
Parliament
Naharnet/October 11/2019
A scuffle erupted on Friday between the security forces and activists from the
Sabaa party who stormed into the Parliament building in Nejmeh Square reportedly
by force. The protesters staged a sit-in inside the parliament hall demanding
early parliament elections and the return of “looted” public funds.
Secretary-General of the Sabaa Party Ghada Eid said the group had permission in
writing to enter the premises and that the parliament police arrested them after
that, inside the parliament hall. Eid is a Lebanese TV presenter famous for
tackling governmental corruption in her TV shows. Another group of Sabaa
activists staged a sit-in outside the building of the Ministry of
Telecommunications in Downtown Beirut demanding bill payments be made in
Lebanese pounds instead of dollars. The party later made a statement announcing
the launch of a national "civil resistance" campaign against "corruption and
looting" of public funds, vowing escalatory popular moves. Hundreds of Lebanese
civil society activists and others protested last week over the economic crisis,
blaming their leaders for decades of mismanagement and corruption that led to an
economic crisis in Lebanon.
Khalil Urges Referral of Budget to Parliament, Fneish Urges Export via Syria
Naharnet/October 11/2019
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil on Friday stressed that it is necessary to
“refer the (2020) state budget to Parliament within a week,” in order to respect
the constitutional deadline. Sport and Youth Minister Mohammed Fneish of
Hizbullah meanwhile said his party and its allies have tackled the issue of
exporting via Syria’s al-Boukamal border crossing “from an economic angle, which
is how Lebanon can benefit from this border crossing.”“We have a chance to
export to Iraq and slash transport costs,” he added. The ministers voiced their
remarks ahead of a meeting for a ministerial committee tasked with approving
economic reforms. Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan Hasbani of the Lebanese Forces
meanwhile said the LF will call for “revoking the 5,000 administrative
appointments that were made in violation of the law.”“But it seems that the
other parties are not enthusiastic to do so,” he added.
Salameh: Dollar Available in Market, Monetary Situation
Stable
Naharnet/October 11/2019
In a move aimed at easing concerns over the demand for dollars amid a worsening
economic crisis, Central Bank governor Riad Salmeh on Friday affirmed the
"stability" of Lebanon’s monetary sector and the "availability" of dollars in
the market. Salameh said in remarks he made to LBCI TV station that he
“explained the mechanism of the new circular to all parties and met with the
concerned ones,” stressing “there will be no change to the circular.”Last week,
Banque Du Liban (BDL) issued guarantees to secure U.S. dollars for local banks
at the fixed official rate that would cover imports of fuel, wheat and medicine,
a move aimed at easing the demand for dollars. BDL said the imports of gasoline,
wheat and medicine it would secure hard currency for are "only for local
consumption.”Salemeh told LBCI his aim is to “facilitate the import of key
merchandise like medicine, flour and fuel,” ensuring that dollars are available
in the Lebanese markets.
UK Minister of State for Middle East Ends Two-Day Visit to
Lebanon
Naharnet/October 11/2019
British Minister of State for the Middle East and International Development
Andrew Murrison ended a two-day visit to Lebanon on Friday, reiterating the UK’s
“long-term commitment to supporting a strong and prosperous Lebanon” and
announcing “over $41 million towards Lebanese host communities and refugees
alike,” the British embassy said. During his visit, Murrison met with President
Michel Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, MPs and senior business leaders. He also visited
UK aid funded projects up and down the country supporting Lebanese host
communities, with a focus on economy, education, demining, refugees and the
Lebanese Armed Forces. In the Bekaa, Minister Murrison visited an Informal
Tented Settlement and saw how tech solutions (iris scanning) are used to ensure
UK aid “only goes to those who need it the most to meet their most basic
survival needs,” the embassy statement said. He also met Syrian refugee families
and heard from them about their living conditions and challenges they face in
Lebanon, including how they view the prospect of returning to Syria.
In Tripoli, Murrison met with host communities to see “the positive impact UK
aid is having on people’s lives through the Lebanese Host Communities Support
Program (LHSP) in partnership with the Ministry of Social Affairs and UNDP. He
announced a new $39 million to LHSP in support of delivering better public
services, economic opportunities and promoting social stability to the most
vulnerable Lebanese and refugees. He also met with MARCH NGO’s youth group in
Tripoli who have overcome barriers, transforming from two feuding neighborhoods
into partners working for a better future for their communities.
At the non-formal education center run by UNICEF, Minister Murrison announced
over $2.5 million of UK aid funding to UNICEF’s non-formal education program. He
saw how non formal schooling is delivered to out of school refugee and Lebanese
children, and how the UK is working with the international community to “ensure
a generation of children do not miss out on education.”
Continuing his northern visit, Minister Murrison visited the First Land Border
Regiment along the Lebanese-Syrian border, which demonstrates “the UK’s strong
support to the Lebanese Armed Forces, Lebanon’s sole defenders, to train, mentor
and equip the LAF’s Land Border Regiments. And securing Lebanon,” the embassy
said. Heading south to the village of Toul, he saw how UK aid support to the
Global Mine Action program is making safe over 1.1 million m2 of land, with over
6,500 men, women and children benefitting from mine risk education.
Minister Murrison also met with Syrian analysts to discuss the latest situation
of refugees in Lebanon and Syria. Speaking at the end of his visit, Murrison
said: “I am delighted to be on my first official visit to Lebanon as Minister
for the Middle East, especially at a time when the UK and Lebanon’s bilateral
trade relations are growing stronger. The UK remains a steadfast partner of the
Government of Lebanon, and supports the need for economic reforms so that
Lebanon can fulfill its potential, including through increased trade and
investment.”“I reiterated the UK’s recognition of Lebanon’s generosity hosting
people fleeing Syria, and got to see how UK aid is supporting both the host
communities and refugees,” he said. “We have been clear: we want Syrians to
return home safely, consistent with international law. The Syrian regime must
immediately return to peace talks to end this senseless suffering,” Murrison
added.
Geagea: Lebanon Needs Reforms
Naharnet/October 11/2019
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea on Friday emphasized that Lebanon’s ailing
economic crisis needs “drastic reforms,” saying the Premier’s efforts to get aid
for Lebanon from foreign countries will eventually go in vain amid lack of
reforms.
“The economic situation is in bad need of reforms. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is
thanked for touring the world to bring aid to Lebanon. His intentions are very
good. If he succeeds, it will be like putting those aid into a hole,” said
Geagea at a dinner in Ottawa, Canada. Shall Hariri succeed at getting aid for
Lebanon, “it will take the same course as that of Paris I, II, and III and other
aid conferences for Lebanon,” lamented Geagea. “We truly believe that aid is key
for Lebanon, but we must embark on reforms first in order to stop the drainage.
The secret word is “reforms.” Otherwise all efforts will go in vain,” added
Geagea. Turning to the displaced Syrians crisis, he said two solutions can be
adopted to resolve it. He first called for negotiations between the Lebanese and
Russian governments to establish a safe zone on the Lebanese-Syrian border, “on
the Syrian side,” he said, under the sponsorship of Russia and the United
Nations. “Let the same aid that reaches them in Lebanon continue to be sent into
that safe area, in camps befitting them, and not like the informal ones in
Lebanon,” said Geagea. Another suggestion he made was to have the Lebanese
government negotiate with a group of Arab countries to receive around 100,000
refugees each on its land. “This will not affect any Arab country because its
population and economic capabilities are larger, and of course some countries
are ready to serve Lebanon in this matter,” he stated, lamenting the aggressive
rhetoric used by some Lebanese officials against Arab countries.
British Envoy Begins Official Visit to Beirut
Naharnet/October 11/2019
President Michel Aoun held a meeting at Baabda on Friday with visiting UK
delegation led by British Secretary of State for the Middle East and North
Africa Andrew Morrison for talks on bilateral relations between Lebanon and the
UK, the National News Agency reported on Friday.
Morrison arrived in Beirut Thursday night beginning an official visit during
which he is set to meet with senior Lebanese officials. The British envoy is
visiting Lebanon reportedly to strengthen cooperation between Lebanon and
Britain, which is preparing to leave the European Union, said al-Joumhouria
daily on Friday. Prime Minister Saad Hariri held a meeting with the UK Minister
of State upon his arrival in Beirut a day earlier accompanied by the British
Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling. “I am grateful to have had the opportunity
to meet with Prime Minister Saad Hariri and discuss a range of bilateral issues
of interest to Lebanon and the United Kingdom,” said Morrison after meeting
Hariri. “The purpose of my visit this week is to look at some of the projects
that the United Kingdom is funding in Lebanon. I visited for example Tripoli
today and I will have further discussions and visits tomorrow. I am impressed
with what I have seen in the country and I am pleased that some of the projects
we have been able to support are clearly doing well and I am looking forward to
seeing more of them during the week,” said Morrison Al-Joumhouria said Morriosn
carries several proposals to expand cooperation between Lebanon and the UK in
the upcoming phase.
Jumblatt, Mikati tackle juncture
NNA - Fri 11 Oct 2019
The media office of the Progressive Socialist Party issued the following
statement: "Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt received at his
residence in Clemenceau on Friday MP Najib Mikati, in the presence of Minister
of Industry Wael Abou Faour, with dicussions focusing on the latest political
developments."
Kouyoumdjian, Tarraf discuss means to bolster cooperation with European Union
NNA -Fri 11 Oct 2019
Minister of Social Affairs Richard Kouyomdjian met with the new EU Ambassador to
Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, where discussions dealt with the political situation in
Lebanon in general, and the prevailing economic conditions.Kouyoumdjian tackled
the relationship between the ministry and the European Union and ways to further
the frameworks of cooperation and coordination, shedding light on the "projects
and programs implemented by the ministry and supported by the European Union."
Bou Saab, Tarraf tackle indirect repercussions of Turkish
military operation on Lebanon
NNA -Fri 11 Oct 2019
Minister of National Defense, Elias Bou Saab, received the EU Ambassador to
Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, and discussed with him the general situation in Lebanon
and the region, especially in light of the military operation led by Turkey on
the Turkish-Syrian border and the possible repercussions on Lebanon which
provides refuge to a large number of Syrian refugees. The minister briefed his
guest on the conditions at the northeastern border of Lebanon, praising the
"hard work done by the Lebanese Army to control the area." The ambassador
expressed the EU's readiness to "support the Lebanese Army to move forward with
its [control] project and to modernize State institutions."Minister Bou Saab
then welcomed the Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nazih Al-Najari, on a farewell
visit to mark the end of his duties in Lebanon. Among Bou Saab's visitors for
today was the Ambassador of Sri Lanka, Mendis Wijeratne, who briefed her on the
conditions of the Sri Lankan contingent operating within the UNIFIL. The
Minister also welcomed Italy's Ambassador, Massimo Marotti, and President of the
Order of Malta in Lebanon, Marwan Sahnawi, with an accompanying delegation.
Foucher tours Akkar, visits monastery of Saint Doumit for Carmelite fathers in
Kobayat
NNA - Fri 11 Oct 2019
French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, continued his tour of the Akkar
province, visiting the monastery of Saint Doumit for Carmelite fathers in
Kobayat, and expressing his happiness to have seen the monastery and this area
for the first time, uttering admiration with the cultural mission of the
monastery.
Foucher expressed "the readiness of the embassy to contribute to the development
of the monastery's efforts, especially in the field of education, namely with
regard to the French language."
Berri, Murrison meet
NNA - Fri 11 Oct 2019
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nabih Berri, received in Ain Al Tineh
this Friday the Minister of State for International Development and Middle East
Affairs Andrew Murrison, in the presence of British Ambassador Chris Rampling,
with talks touching on the latest developments in Lebanon and the region.
Hariri receives Jordanian Agriculture Minister
NNA - Fri 11 Oct 2019
The President of the Council of ministers Saad Hariri received today at the
Center House the Jordanian Minister of Agriculture and Environment Ibrahim
Shahahdeh heading a delegation from the ministry, in the presence of the
Minister of Agriculture Hassan Lakkis.
After the meeting, Minister Shahahdeh said: “We were honored to meet with Prime
Minister Hariri and when we talk about Lebanon, we are not only talking about
relations, but beyond that because we are connected by demography and common
hopes and aspirations. We briefed Premier Hariri on the results of the
agricultural technical committee, which gave optimism and hope about a
partnership between our agricultural sectors.”He added: “We agreed with Minister
Lakkis to give priority to the exchange of agricultural products in the event of
a shortage in our countries and this will have a great positive impact on our
sectors.”He concluded: “The environment sector is similar in both Lebanon and
Jordan, where we have big increase in solid waste as a result of the Syrian
displacement to Lebanon and Jordan. We agreed eight months ago that there will
be one unified message regarding the solid waste file in the meeting of the
Council of Arab Ministers of Environment to present it to donor countries. This
serves Lebanon and Jordan and soon there will be a study that will have a
positive effect, as promised by the World Environment Organization.”
Hariri also met with a delegation from the German media institution Deutsche
Welle that included the Director of Programming of TV, radio and online at DW
Gerda Meuer, the Director of the Middle East Department at the Television Dr.
Naser Shrouf, the Spokesperson for the Foundation Christoph Jumpelt, the Head of
TV Department-Arabic Service Mohamed Ibrahim, the Deputy Director General of DW
Akademie Natascha Schwanke, and the Director of DW's Beirut office, Bassel Aridi
in a protocol visit to mark the opening of a regional office for the Foundation
in Beirut. He received a joint delegation of businesswomen from Lebanon, Cyprus
and Greece. The businesswomen in Cyprus and Greece are presently in Lebanon
within the framework of implementing the agreement signed two years ago for the
cultural, commercial and tourism exchange between Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on on October 11-12/2019
Explosion hits near US outpost in Syria’s Kobani
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 11 October 2019
An explosion occurred near an outpost of US troops near Syria’s Kobani earlier
on Friday, according to a US official. The official, speaking on the condition
of anonymity, said the source of the explosion near Kobani, Syria, was unclear
but it came as Turkey wages an offensive in northeast Syria. According to an Al
Arabiya correspondent on the ground, Turkish artillery hit a coalition base in
Kobani with reports of soldiers from the US and France being wounded.
Trump: We don’t want Turkey killing a lot of people in Syria
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 12 October 2019
US President Donald Trump says that Washington does not want Turkey killing a
lot of people in Syria and his administration will use sanctions if it has to.
The US ramped up efforts on Friday to persuade Turkey to halt an escalating
offensive in northern Syria against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, saying Ankara
was causing “great harm” to ties and could face potentially devastating
sanctions.Trump’s decision to pull back troops from Syria’s border with Turkey
has been widely criticized in Washington as a tacit “green light” for a Turkish
incursion that experts say could cause a humanitarian catastrophe.Since it began
on Tuesday, the Turkish incursion has opened a new front in the eight-year
Syrian civil war and drawn international criticism. A war monitor gave a death
toll of more than 100 so far and the United Nations said 100,000 people had fled
their homes.
SDF commander confirms five ISIS prisoners escape after
Turkey shelling
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 11 October 2019
The commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces has confirmed that
Turkish shelling has hit a prison holding ISIS extremists in northeastern Syria,
resulting in the escape of five detained members. The statement came from SDF
chief General Mazlum Kobani Abdi during an interview with journalists and
researchers with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Guarding ISIS
detainees is no longer a priority,” Abdi was quoted as saying. A prison guard at
Navkur, which is located in the town of Qamishli, had told AFP before the
reported breakout that the facility housed mostly foreign extremists. Turkey and
its Syrian proxies on Wednesday launched a deadly cross-border military
offensive against areas controlled by the SDF.
‘Border on fire’ as Turkey intensifies Syria campaign
Reuters, Istanbul/Friday, 11 October 2019
Turkey stepped up its air and artillery strikes on Kurdish militia in northeast
Syria on Friday, escalating an offensive that has drawn warnings of humanitarian
catastrophe. A car bomb exploded on Friday in the border city of Qamishli in
northeastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces said. Four people were killed
and nine others were injured in the explosion, according to an Al Arabiya
correspondent. 4 killed and 9 injured in car bomb explosion in Qamishli. The
incursion, launched after Trump withdrew US troops who had been fighting
alongside Kurdish forces against ISIS militants, has opened a new front in the
eight-year-old Syrian civil war and drawn fierce international criticism. In
Washington, Trump - fending off accusations that he abandoned the Kurds, loyal
allies of the United States - suggested that Washington could mediate in the
conflict, while also raising the possibility of imposing sanctions on Turkey. On
Friday, Turkish warplanes and artillery struck around Syria’s Ras al Ain, one of
two border towns that have been the focus of the offensive. Reuters journalists
heard gunfire there from across the frontier in the Turkish town of Ceylanpinar.
A convoy of 20 armored vehicles carrying Turkish-allied Syrian opposition forces
entered Syria from Ceylanpinar. Some 120 km to the west, Turkish artillery
resumed shelling near the Syrian town of Tel Abyad, a witness said. “In these
moments, Tel Abyad is seeing the most intense battles in three days,” Marvan
Qamishlo, a spokesman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said.
Overnight, clashes erupted at different points along the border from Ain Diwar
at the Iraqi frontier to Kobani, more than 400 km to the west. Turkish and SDF
forces exchanged shelling in Qamishli among other places, the SDF’s Qamishlo
said.
“The whole border was on fire,” he said. Turkish forces have seized nine
villages near Ras al Ain and Tel Abyad, said Rami Abdulrahman, director of the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the war.
At least 32 fighters with the SDF and 34 Turkey-backed Syrian opposition forces
have been killed in fighting, while 10 civilians have been killed, Abdulrahman
said. The SDF said 22 of its fighters were killed on Wednesday and Thursday.
Turkey says it has killed hundreds of SDF fighters in the operation and one
Turkish soldier has been killed. In Syria’s al Bab, some 150 km west of the
offensive, some 500 Turkish-backed Syrian fighters were set to head to Turkey to
join the operation, CNN Turk reported.
“Humanitarian catastrophe”
Turkey says the purpose of its assault is to defeat the Kurdish YPG militia,
which it sees as an enemy for its links to insurgents in Turkey. It says it aims
to set up a “safe zone” inside Syria, where it can resettle many of the 3.6
million refugees it has been hosting. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan
criticized Europe for failing to support the Turkish offensive and threatened to
send refugees to Europe if the EU did not back him. European Council President
Donald Tusk responded on Friday by chastising Erdogan for making the threat.
“Turkey must understand that our main concern is that their actions may lead to
another humanitarian catastrophe,” he said. The International Rescue Committee
aid group says 64,000 people in Syria have fled in the first days of the
campaign. The Kurdish YPG is the main fighting element of the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) which have acted as the principal allies of the United States in a
campaign that recaptured territory held by ISIS. The SDF now holds most of the
territory that once made up ISIS’s “caliphate” in Syria, and has been keeping
thousands of ISIS fighters in jail and tens of thousands of their family members
in camps. A camp sheltering more than 7,000 displaced people in northern Syria
is to be evacuated and there are talks on moving a second camp for 13,000 people
including ISIS fighters’ families, after both were shelled, Kurdish-led
authorities said. Medecins Sans Frontieres said a hospital in Tel Abyad had been
forced to shut after most of its staff fled from bombings over the past 24
hours.
Consequences
US President Donald Trump said in a Twitter post on Thursday: “We have one of
three choices: Send in thousands of troops and win militarily, hit Turkey very
hard Financially and with Sanctions, or mediate a deal between Turkey and the
Kurds!”. “I hope we can mediate,” Trump said when asked about the options by
reporters at the White House. Without elaborating, he said the United States was
“going to possibly do something very, very tough with respect to sanctions and
other financial things” against Turkey. Western countries’ rejection of the
Turkish offensive creates a rift within the NATO alliance, in which Turkey is
also a member. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after talks with
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Istanbul that he expected Turkey to act
with restraint in Syria. Cavusoglu said Ankara expected “strong solidarity” from
the alliance. Stoltenberg also told reporters the international community must
find a sustainable solution for ISIS prisoners in Syria. French Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian has called for an emergency meeting of the US-led coalition
of more than 30 countries created to fight ISIS. France’s European affairs
minister said next week’s EU summit will discuss sanctions on Turkey over its
action in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that ISIS militants
could escape from jail as a result of the Turkish offensive, the Interfax news
agency reported.
Heavy fighting as Kurdish-led SDF holds off Turkish assault
AFP, Qamishli/Friday, 11 October 2019
Fighting raged in northeastern Syria on Friday as Turkish forces and their
proxies tried to seize key towns held by Kurdish-led forces on the third day of
a long-threatened offensive. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the
Kurdish-led forces in control of northeastern Syria – scrambled to repulse
multiple ground attacks along a roughly 120 kilometer (75 mile) long segment of
the border. “There is heavy fighting between the SDF and the Turks on different
fronts, mostly from Tal Abyad to Ras al-Ain,” the Syria Observatory for Human
Rights said. The Britain-based war monitor said the Turkish forces and their
Syrian proxies - mostly Sunni Arab former rebels - were using air strikes, heavy
artillery and rocket fire. “The SDF are using tunnels, trenches and berms” in
their defense operations, the Observatory said. SDF counter-attacks overnight
led to the retaking of two of the 11 villages they had lost since the start of
the Turkish-led assault on Wednesday. A media center affiliated to the SDF’s
civilian administration also said that Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, which have been
almost emptied of their population, were the worst hit. It quoted a Kurdish
military official as saying that some tribes in the mainly Arab area had sided
with the Turks and raised sleeper cells to attack from behind SDF lines. The
Observatory also reported that dozens of Arab residents from the border area had
joined the Turkish side. According to the Observatory, a total of at least 10
civilians and 29 SDF fighters have been killed since the start of the offensive.
Turkey announced Friday morning that one of its soldiers had also been killed
and three others wounded.
Thousands flee, hospital closed after bombings in northeast
Syria: Aid groups
Agencies/Friday, 11 October 2019
The only public hospital in a region of northeast Syria has been forced to shut
after most of its staff fled from bombings over the past 24 hours, Medecins Sans
Frontieres said in a statement on Friday. Turkish warplanes and artillery hit
Kurdish forces targets in northeast Syria on Friday on the third day of an
offensive that has killed hundreds of people. “The hospital of Tel Abyad,
supported by MSF, is from now on closed because most of the medical workers have
left with their families,” the French charity said, referring to the border town
which it said was now practically deserted. More than 70,000 people from Ras
al-Ain and Tel Abyad have been displaced by escalating violence, according to
the UN World Food Program, which helps feed close to 650,000 people in
northeastern Syria.
Evacuating refugee camps
A camp sheltering more than 7,000 displaced people in northern Syria is to be
evacuated and talks are underway about moving a second camp for 13,000 people
including families of ISIS fighters after both were hit by shelling, the
Kurdish-led authorities in northern Syria said on Friday. In a statement, the
Kurdish-led administration said the camps at Mabrouka and Ain Issa had “not been
immune from the dangers” of a Turkish offensive that began this week. The camp
at Mabrouka, 12 km from the Turkish border, would be evacuated and the people
sheltering there moved to al-Arisha camp south of Hasaka city, it said. The
second camp at Ain Issa is holding 785 relatives of ISIS militants, it said.
“Discussion is underway with the relevant bodies and organisation to find a
solution or alternative location to move the camp to,” it said.
Netherlands to freeze weapons exports to Turkey
AFP/Friday, 11 October 2019
The Netherlands announced it will be freezing weapons exports to Turkey,
according to a foreign ministry statement. Syria's Kurds, who were the West's
allies in the fight against ISIS, have been battling since Wednesday to hold off
a Turkish incursion as thousands of civilians fled airstrikes and shelling that
deepened fears of a humanitarian crisis and raised international alarm. Norway,
a NATO ally of Turkey, and Finland announced they were suspending all new arms
exports to the country after Ankara launched a military offensive against
Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
Pentagon ‘strongly’ encourages Turkey to ‘discontinue’
action in northeast Syria
AFP, Washington/Friday, 11 October 2019
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned Turkey to halt its incursion into
northeastern Syria, warning it could have “serious consequences” for Ankara, the
Pentagon said Friday. In a phone call on Thursday with Turkish Defense Minister
Hulusi Akar, Esper “strongly encouraged Turkey to discontinue actions in
northeastern Syria,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “While the secretary
reaffirmed we value our strategic bilateral relationship, this incursion risks
serious consequences for Turkey,” the statement said.
Pentagon Approves Deployment of 3,000 More Troops to Saudi Arabia
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/2019
The Pentagon said Friday it has approved the deployment of 3,000 additional
troops and military hardware to Saudi Arabia to boost the country's defenses in
the wake of attacks on its oil installations blamed on Iran. U.S. Secretary of
Defense Mark Esper authorized the deployment of two more Patriot missile
batteries, one THAAD ballistic missile interception system, two fighter
squadrons and one air expeditionary wing, the Pentagon said in a statement.
"Secretary Esper informed Saudi Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Muhammad
bin Salman this morning of the additional troop deployment to assure and enhance
the defense of Saudi Arabia," it said. "Taken together with other deployments
this constitutes an additional 3,000 forces that have been extended or
authorized within the last month," it said.
Turkey says 121 detained for social media posts
The Associated Press, Beirut/Friday, 11 October 2019
Turkey’s interior minister says Friday that 121 people have been detained for
social media posts critical of Turkey’s military offensive into Kurdish-held
northeastern Syria.Suleyman Soylu said nearly 500 people were investigated for
posts characterizing Turkey as an “invading” force and “insulting” the
operation-dubbed Peace Spring- which is in its third day. Turkey is fighting the
Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which it considers to be an
extension of a Kurdish insurgency within the country. Turkey’s police force has
previously said the investigations were under the charge of “terror propaganda.”
Similar measures were taken during Turkey’s 2018 cross-border operation in Afrin
in northwestern Syria, which was previously controlled by the YPG. Turkey’s
anti-terror laws are broad. Pro-Kurdish lawmakers and journalists have been
convicted and imprisoned for terror propaganda.
Iran Tanker Hit by Suspected Missile Strikes
near Saudi Port
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 11/2019
Suspected missile strikes hit an Iranian oil tanker off the Saudi coast on
Friday, its owner said, the first Iranian vessel targeted since a spate of
attacks in the Gulf Washington blamed on Tehran. The National Iranian Tanker
Company, which owns the ship, said the hull of the Sabiti was hit by two
separate explosions off the Saudi port of Jeddah, saying they were "probably
caused by missile strikes". Oil prices surged more than two percent on the news,
which raised fresh supply concerns with tensions still high after last month's
attacks on two Saudi crude facilities. The International Energy Agency warned
against market complacency after the attack, as it noted that a quick recovery
of output and fears of a global economic slowdown had already seen prices
recover from the September attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. The blasts come
just weeks after two of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil installations were hit,
wiping out five percent of global production.
The National Iranian Tanker Company said the hull of the vessel was hit by two
separate explosions about 100 kilometres (60 miles) off the Saudi coast.
It identified the tanker as the Sabiti and said the blasts were "probably caused
by missile strikes". "All the ship's crew are safe and the ship is stable too,"
NITC said, adding those on board were trying to repair the damage.
Iran's foreign ministry said the tanker was attacked "from a location close to
the corridor it was passing, east of the Red Sea," stopping short of naming
Saudi Arabia. Oil was leaking from the tanker into the Red Sea.
"The responsibility of this incident, including the serious environmental
pollution, falls on the perpetrators of this reckless act," said ministry
spokesman Abbas Mousavi, adding that investigations are continuing. According to
ship tracking service TankerTrackers, the Sabiti is fully laden with one million
barrels and has declared the Gulf as its destination. According to Iranian state
television, the blasts could have been the result of a "terrorist
attack."Pictures published by the television showed the ship's deck without any
outward signs of damage. It comes after a spate of still unexplained attacks on
shipping in and around the vital seaway to the Gulf involving Iran and Western
powers. Washington accused Tehran of attacking the vessels with mines, something
it strongly denied.
Attacks on Saudi plants
There have also been seizures of both Iranian and Western-flagged vessels and
twin attacks claimed by Yemeni rebels allied with Iran on key Saudi oil
infrastructure. Both Washington and Riyadh blamed Tehran for those attacks,
which wiped out five percent of global production. Iran again denied any role.
The United States has since formed a naval coalition to escort commercial
vessels through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. It has been joined by Australia,
Bahrain, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Friday's incident
is the first involving an Iranian ship since the "Happiness 1" broke down at
about the same location in early May. That ship was repaired in Saudi Arabia and
held in the kingdom until July 21 when it was released. The rare docking came
despite escalating tensions between staunch enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi
Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016, after its missions in the
country were attacked in demonstrations over the Sunni-ruled kingdom's execution
of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. The attack on the Iranian tanker also
comes ahead of a planned visit to Iran and Saudi Arabia by Pakistani Prime
Minister Imran Khan, who is expected to make an effort to defuse tensions
between Tehran and Riyadh. China called on all parties to "exercise restraint"
in the "highly complex and sensitive" situation.
Iran-US standoff
Iran has been locked in a standoff with the United States and its Gulf Arab
allies since US President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 deal that gave it
relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear programme. The
British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero arrived in Dubai late last month, after
being detained with its crew in Iran for more than two months. Iran's
Revolutionary Guards seized the vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on July 19 and
then impounded it off the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas for allegedly failing to
respond to distress calls and turning off its transponder after hitting a
fishing boat. The seizure was widely seen as a tit-for-tat move after
authorities in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar detained an Iranian
tanker on suspicion it was shipping oil to Syria in breach of EU sanctions.
Tehran repeatedly denied the cases were related. At the height of the crisis,
Trump ordered retaliatory strikes against Iran after the Islamic republic downed
a US drone but called them off at the last minute.
Senior Iranian cleric claims Iraq protests being
manipulated to stop pilgrims
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 11 October 2019
The protests in Iraq are being taken advantage of by “enemies” of the country
including the US and international media outlets, senior Iranian cleric
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said on Friday, according to the semi-official Fars news
agency. These “enemies” were using the protests to pursue their own goals and
prevent Shias from participating in the Arbaeen Pilgrimage, a Shia religious
ceremony, said Khatami, who is a senior member of the Assembly of Experts.
Speaking during his Friday prayer sermon in Tehran, Khatami divided the apparent
forces behind the Iraqi protests into three elements: Western enemies (the US,
UK, and Israel), Saudi Arabia, and media outlets including CNN, the BBC, and Al
Arabiya. He also included elements of Iraq's Ba’ath Party, which opposes Iran’s
presence in the country, in the third group. According to Khatami, these actors
are concerned about Iraq’s closeness to the “Resistance Axis,” the term Iran
uses to describe its network of proxies, allies, and terrorist organizations in
the region. At least 110 people have been killed across Iraq and more than 6,000
wounded, with protesters demanding the removal of Prime Minister Adil Abdul
Mahdi and a government they accuse of corruption.
The Iraqi protesters have accused Iran of being directly involved in the
crackdown of their protests. An Iraqi protester interviewed by Reuters on
October 3 said that Farsi-speaking Iranians, not Iraqi forces, have been
shooting at people during Iraq’s recent deadly protests. Iraqis have also been
shouting slogans against the Iranian presence in their country. Videos of the
protests on social media show protesters tearing images of Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei in the Shia holy city of Karbala. Iran has sent 7,500 members of
its special unit law enforcement force to Iraq, according to the force’s
commander, under the pretext of providing security for the Arbaeen Pilgrimage.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had called the anti-government protests in
Iraq a “conspiracy” by the enemies and an attempt to “sow discord” between Iran
and Iraq. In another part of his speech, Khatami addressed Turkey’s military
operations in Syria. “Turkey’s action translates to an invasion of an
independent state,” he said, adding that “the Islamic Republic calls for a halt
to these operations and the withdrawal of [Turkish] troops from Syria.”“Turkey
should be careful not to fall into America’s trap,” said Khatami. Turkey
launched a military offensive into north-eastern Syria on Wednesday. Turkish
forces are attacking positions controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF). The incursion into Syrian territory has been widely condemned
internationally. Republicans in the US House of Representatives are also seeking
sanctions on Turkey in response to the offensive.
Daughter of jailed UK-Iranian woman Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe returns to UK
AFP, London/Friday, 11 October 2019
The five-year-old daughter of a British-Iranian woman jailed in Tehran since
2016 has arrived back in Britain, her father said Friday, after making the
“bittersweet” decision to bring her home. Gabriella Zaghari-Ratcliffe had been
staying with relatives in Iran since her mother Nazanin’s detention on sedition
charges, visiting her in jail each week. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 40, stated
in an open letter released earlier this week that Gabriella, who only speaks a
few words of English, would return to Britain “in the near future.”Richard
Ratcliffe confirmed on Friday that his daughter had arrived home, saying
“Gabriella came back to us late at night, a bit uncertain seeing those she only
remembered from the phone. “It has been a long journey to have her home, with
bumps right until the end,” he added in the statement. “Of course the job is not
yet done until Nazanin is home. It was a hard goodbye for Nazanin and all her
family. But let us hope this homecoming unlocks another.”Ratcliffe told AFP last
week that his daughter’s return would be “bittersweet.” “It will be lovely to
have her back ... and then also we will be weary of the fallout for Nazanin,” he
said, noting that Gabriella had been his wife’s “lifeline and that lifeline will
have been taken away.”The young girl spent three and a half years living in
Iran, visiting her mother in the Evin prison. Her parents decided it would be
best for her to be schooled in Britain. “My baby will leave me to go to her
father and start school in the UK,” her mother wrote in an open letter released
earlier this month. “It will be a daunting trip for her travelling, and for me
left behind.”Zaghari-Ratcliffe was arrested in April 2016 as she was leaving
Iran after taking their then 22-month-old daughter to visit her family. She was
sentenced to five years in jail for allegedly trying to topple the Iranian
government. A project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the media
group’s philanthropic arm, she denies all charges. The case has unfolded amid
escalating tensions between Tehran and the West, particularly with the United
States and Britain.
Suspect Arrested after Mass Stabbing at UK Shopping Center
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 11/2019
A man arrested for allegedly stabbing several people at a shopping center in
Manchester, northwest England, is being held on terror charges, police said on
Friday. Assistant Chief Constable Russ Jackson, of Greater Manchester Police,
said the man was being questioned "on suspicion of the commission, preparation
and instigation of an act of terrorism." Jackson said the suspect, identified as
a man in his 40s armed with "a large knife," injured five people and was
believed to be acting alone. "He began lunging and attacking people with the
knife," he told reporters. "He was initially arrested for serious assault. "He
has now been arrested on suspicion of commission, preparation and instigation of
an act of terrorism."The attack happened at the Arndale shopping center in the
heart of Manchester, near where an Islamist extremist suicide bomber killed 22
after an Ariana Grande concert in 2017. "This is bound to bring back memories of
the awful events of 2017," said Jackson. "We do not believe there is anyone
else" involved in the attack, he added. "We not believe there is a wider threat
at this time."
Khalid bin Salman, Pompeo discuss regional security,
military cooperation
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 10 October 2019
Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman discussed on
Thursday regional security and military cooperation with US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo amid heightened tension in the region. Saudi Arabia and the United
States “stand side by side in bolstering regional and international security and
stability,” Prince Khalid said of his talks with Pompeo on Twitter. Tensions in
the Gulf region have risen since attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of
Hormuz in May and June and attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and
Hijrat Khurais in September that Riyadh has also blamed on Iran. Tehran denies
any involvement. Saudi Arabia has supported Washington’s “maximum pressure”
campaign against Iran after President Donald Trump last year withdrew from an
international nuclear pact and re-imposed sanctions, saying the deal was flawed
as it does not curb Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for regional
proxies. (With Agencies)
US to send more troops, defense equipment to Saudi Arabia
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 11 October 2019
The United States is planning to send a large number of additional forces,
possibly thousands, to Saudi Arabia following the September 14 attack on its oil
facilities, which Washington and Riyadh have blamed on Iran, sources familiar
with the matter told Reuters on Friday. A statement from Chief Pentagon
Spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman confirmed that US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper
informed Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on Friday of the
additional troop deployment to assure and enhance the defense of Saudi Arabia.
“At the request of US Central Command, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper
authorized the deployment of additional US forces and the following equipment to
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Two Fighter Squadrons, one Air Expeditionary Wing (AEW),
two Patriot Batteries and one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD),”
Hoffman said. “Taken together with other deployments, this constitutes an
additional 3,000 forces that have been extended or authorized within the last
month,” he added. The deployment is part of a series of what the United States
has described as defensive moves following the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil
facilities last month, which rattled the global energy market.
German MPs blame Iran after visit to Saudi Aramco attack
site
By Staff Writer, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 8 October 2019
German federal parliamentary members said on Tuesday that responsibility for
last month’s attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities were “plausibly imputable to
Iran directly,” following a visit to the Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia. “The
responsibility for this attack is plausibly imputable to Iran directly. Iran’s
policy to support terrorist & destabilizing other states is unacceptable!” Olav
Gutting and Nikolas Lobel, members of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union
party, shared in posts on Twitter. The parliamentary officials’ comments are in
alignment with a joint statement issued by their home country of Germany,
Britain, and France. The European countries blamed Iran for the attack on Saudi
Arabian oil facilities and said the time had come for Iran to accept
negotiations on its missile program and issues of regional security. On
September 14 drone attacks caused fires at two Saudi Aramco facilities, in
Abqaiq and Hijrat Khurais oilfield. The attacks knocked out more than half of
Saudi Arabia’s oil production and damaged the world’s biggest crude processing
plant. US intelligence shows that the attack originated from Iran and the Arab
Coalition’s preliminary findings showed the weapons were made by Iran. Iran
denied US accusations it was to blame and the Iran-backed Houthi militia claimed
responsibility. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir
has said that the Kingdom holds Iran responsible as the equipment used was
Iranian-made. Saudi Arabia is investigating the attacks and international
experts including the United Nations have traveled to the sites to participate.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on October 11-12/2019
Words of God and the Bible Only Can rebuke the evil.
Elie Abillama/October 11/2019
Days will come in the future and as you see some people listing statements such
as: They have decided to place their old life’s behind them etc etc etc or they
have open a new page etc etc etc. All that is not only funny but pathetic to see
those who change for the sake of others favours.
Should in the future such statements gets released either from this account or
any other account holding my name take note that this is not true. For I do not
Change. I Evolve. It is as well fascinating how things came to be in a world
that capitalize and claim exclusivity on something that is meant to be free.
It is a well designed to reject as the design it is made to accept. Funny is
that how some on either aisles are sometimes. Although it’s either up or down as
it was always. The order is straight and yet men through evil and for his own
satisfaction try to say they are the order. There’s no such order that prevail.
Even with aprons to hide your shame remember that all souls and spirits are
naked in front of the eyes of the Lord.
What covers a man is the word of righteousness and the Holy Spirit. Although we
read yet we don’t see. Although we see but we are not able to read. And when we
read what are we able to see , and in those little words only few are able to
see.
And yet I ve seen how the many been dragged and they didn’t want to , but powers
weren’t with them nor to understand nor to see and yet when they were able to
see they cried and kept their hope close to their hearts.
Words in the Bible are given for free for all mankind to read and if you don’t
see ask from the Holy Spirit and you will see. Notice even your alphabets how
it’s designed and yet those who say I see are blind in their souls and hearts.
Take no heed man for evil has always been there for only by the Words of God and
the Bible you rebuke that evil. Know as well man that the word of God is for
Mankind regardless of race color and religion. I can only imagine that not one
will be led to such evil deeds anymore. How the world trembled and got lost when
one asked for his chair.
Let it be known that no one will be able to step into such room anymore until
the order from above will be heard by all this world.Than you know it’s true.
It’s as well intriguing sometimes that men stupidity and ignorance leads them to
a path that’s not righteous.
Dilemma: Although I was well received, but didn’t appreciate nor the wall
neither the pic, now that had no grounds of whatsoever. (And yet we ask
ourselves why do we loose rather than win - now let the world laugh .
I Am not Here to trade. Words of light for those whom light been given to them
by All Mighty God.
Thousands Flee, Hundreds Reported Dead in Turkish Attack on
U.S.-allied Kurds in Syria
Reuters/October 11/2019
Turkey's Defense Ministry said 228 Syrian Democratic Forces fighters had been
killed so far, and a U.S. State Department official said would penalize Turkey
for any 'inhumane and disproportionate' moves against civilians.
Turkey pounded Kurdish militia in northeast Syria for a second day on Thursday,
forcing tens of thousands of people to flee and killing at least dozens of
people in a cross-border assault on U.S. allies that has turned the Washington
establishment against U.S. President Donald Trump.
The offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by Kurdish YPG
militia, which began days after Trump pulled U.S. troops out of the way and
following a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, opens one of
the biggest new fronts in years in an eight-year-old civil war that has drawn in
global powers.
"We have one of three choices: Send in thousands of troops and win Militarily,
hit Turkey very hard Financially and with Sanctions, or mediate a deal between
Turkey and the Kurds!" Trump said in a Twitter post on Thursday.
"I hope we can mediate," Trump said when asked about the options by reporters at
the White House.
Without elaborating, Trump said the United States was "going to possibly do
something very, very tough with respect to sanctions and other financial things"
against Turkey.
The SDF have been the main allies of U.S. forces on the ground in the battle
against Islamic State since 2014. They have been holding thousands of captured
ISIS fighters in prisons and tens of thousands of their relatives in detention.
SDF forces were still in control of all prisons with Islamic State captives, a
senior U.S. State Department official said in a briefing with reporters on
Thursday.
The United States has received a high-level commitment from Turkey on taking
responsibility for Islamic State captives but has not yet had detailed
discussions, the official said.
U.S. lawmakers and media have said Trump essentially gave Erdogan the green
light for Turkey's military to go into northeast Syria but the official disputed
that. "We gave them a very clear red light, I've been involved in those red
lights and I know the President did that on Sunday," the official said.
Turkey's Defense Ministry said 228 militants had been killed so far in the
offensive. Kurds said they were resisting the assault. At least 23 fighters with
the SDF and six fighters with a Turkish-backed Syrian rebel group had been
killed, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the war.
Air strikes
The SDF said Turkish air strikes and shelling had also killed nine civilians. In
an apparent retaliation by Kurdish-led forces, six people including a
9-month-old baby were killed by mortar and rocket fire into Turkish border
towns, officials in southeastern Turkey said.
The International Rescue Committee said 64,000 people in Syria have fled since
the campaign began. The towns of Ras al-Ain and Darbasiya, some 60 km (37 miles)
to the east, have become largely deserted.
The Observatory said Turkish forces had seized two villages near Ras al-Ain and
five near the town of Tel Abyad, while a spokesman for Syrian rebel forces said
the towns were surrounded after fighters seized the villages around them.
According to a senior Turkish security official, the armed forces struck weapons
and ammunition depots, gun and sniper positions, tunnels and military bases.
Jets flew operations up to 30 km (18 miles) into Syria - a limit which Turkey's
foreign minister said Turkish forces would not go beyond. A Reuters journalist
saw shells exploding just outside Tel Abyad.
Ankara brands the YPG militia as terrorists because of their ties to militants
who have waged an insurgency in Turkey. On Thursday, Turkish police began
criminal investigations of several Kurdish lawmakers and detained scores of
people in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir, accusing them of criticising the
military's incursion into Syria, state media reported.
Late on Thursday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar spoke by phone with his
French, British and U.S. counterparts, the defense ministry said. It said Akar
and U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper discussed defense and security issues, and
added that Akar briefed Esper on the aims and progress of the incursion.
Trump criticized
Trump has faced rare criticism from senior figures in his own Republican Party
who accuse him of deserting loyal U.S. allies. Trump has called the Turkish
assault a "bad idea" and said he did not endorse it.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican who usually backs Trump, has been one
of the most outspoken critics of the president's decision to withdraw U.S.
troops from northeastern Syria. He unveiled a framework for sanctions on Turkey
with Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen.
"If there is any measure taken against us, we will retaliate and respond in
kind," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, adding that "nothing will
come of these sanctions."
After the UN Security Council met to discuss the fighting, the U.S. ambassador
to the United Nations said Turkey faced unspecified "consequences" if it did not
meet its pledge to protect vulnerable populations or contain Islamic State
fighters.
Later, the U.S. State Department official said the United States would penalize
Turkey if it engages in any "inhumane and disproportionate" moves against
civilians. That would include "ethnic cleansing, it would include in particular
indiscriminate artillery, air and other fires directed at civilian population,"
the official said. "That's what we're looking at right now, we haven't seen
significant examples of that so far."
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for an emergency meeting of
the coalition of more than 30 countries created to fight Islamic State. The
coalition "needs to say today what are we going do, how do you, Turkey, want to
proceed and how do we ensure the security of places where fighters are held?
Everything needs to be on the table so that we are clear," Le Drian said on
France 2 television.
Erdogan said militants from Islamic State would not be allowed to rebuild a
presence in the region.
The Kurdish-led authority in northern Syria said a prison that holds "the most
dangerous criminals from more than 60 nationalities" had been struck by Turkish
shelling, and Turkey's attacks on its prisons risked "a catastrophe."
NATO member Turkey has said it intends to create a "safe zone" for the return of
millions of refugees to Syria.
Erdogan threatened to permit Syrian refugees in Turkey to move to Europe if EU
countries described his forces' move as an occupation. Turkey hosts around 3.6
million people who have fled the Syrian war.
The European Union should have a dialogue with Turkey despite Ankara's offensive
against the Kurds, in order to avoid a fresh wave of migrants coming to Europe,
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Thursday.
Russia, the main international backer of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, said
it planned to push for dialogue between the Syrian and Turkish governments
following the incursion.
Editorial || Netanyahu’s Iran Policy Has Collapsed
Haaretz Editorial/October 11/2019
Two strategic surprises have toppled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign
affairs and defense policy, showing it to be hollow and disastrous.
The first surprise was the successful attack, attributed to Iran, on the Saudi
oil fields. The response was an American shrug. The second surprise was U.S.
President Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Kurds, thus enabling Turkey to set
out to occupy a “security zone” in the Kurdish region in northern Syria.
Israel was surprised by the Iranians’ operative capability against Saudi Arabia
and Netanyahu hastily asked for additional state funds to strengthen air
defenses. Israel was no less surprised by the American retreat from northern
Syria. According to Amos Harel and Amir Tibon’s report (Haaretz October 7), the
last time Trump decided to take his forces out of Syria Israel had been notified
24 hours in advance. This time the White House made no effort to do even that.
Netanyahu built his foreign affairs and defense policy on two foundations:
complete identification with Trump and escalating the conflict with Iran and its
allies, with a series of attacks that have intensified in recent months,
striking at a distance as far as Iraq. He believed, and marketed to the public,
that Trump was attentive to his counsel and would take steps to bring down the
Iranian regime. But to his great disappointment Trump broke off contact with him
after the election and is brazenly acting to thaw relations with Iran. Netanyahu
has no other allies in America, after effectively severing his ties with the
Democratic Party.
Trump’s putting up with the attack on Saudi Arabia and leaving the Kurds high
and dry are warning signs to Israel, that it cannot count on Netanyahu’s friend
in the White House. Trump is striving to end his country’s military involvement
in the Middle East and his policy is supported by the American public and
political system. Netanyahu’s efforts to impede the change in the American
approach and thwart the thaw with Iran are asking for trouble.
Netanyahu serves as defense minister as well. He is responsible for the
strategic surprises, for Israel’s deficient preparation for the American
turnabout and for dealing with Iran’s military capability. Here’s another vital
reason to end his term of office.
It’s craziness here’: Kurdish forces struggle to contain
world’s unwanted ISIS prisoners in Syria
Stewart.Bell/Global News/October 11.2019
The unrest began when hardliners at Syria’s biggest camp for female ISIS
detainees gathered in a tent, allegedly to whip a woman as punishment for
defying their puritanical code. Kurdish soldiers arrested those responsible, but
as they led the prisoners away, more black-clad women congregated, chanting “God
is great,” index fingers jabbing at the hot morning sky.
“Jihad,” one shouted.
“Oppressors,” another said in English.
When the demonstrators wouldn’t disperse, more troops came running. Aiming over
the women’s heads, they fired bursts from their rifles. Then two armoured
vehicles arrived, blasting rounds from their gun turrets.
By the time the shooting stopped, a woman was dead. Medecins Sans Frontieres
said it had treated four more for gunshot wounds, and the security forces
lamented the deteriorating conditions at the camp.
A city of white tents behind a security fence, Al-Hawl camp houses more than
70,000 women and children captured during the final battles against ISIS that
ended six months ago.
Thousands of them are foreigners that their own countries, including Canada,
won’t take back. So the Kurds, having lost 11,000 fighters to defeat ISIS, have
been left alone to detain the world’s most unwanted.
It was already an overwhelming responsibility, and now the Kurds have been
dragged into a new conflict with NATO ally Turkey, which, following a nod from
U.S. President Donald Trump, launched an offensive into northern Syria this
week.
Canada denounced the invasion but has not done its part to ease the burden on
the Kurds by repatriating any of the roughly 40 Canadians held at ISIS detainee
camps, according to Kurdish authorities.
A week before Turkey attacked, Mustafa Bali sat behind his desk at a military
base in Ayn Issa, lamenting the Canadian government’s inaction on a critical
global national security issue.
“Those Canadian citizens who came here, they came to kill us and they came to
kill our kids and to destroy our towns,” said Bali, spokesman for the Syrian
Democratic Forces.
“And the moment that we arrested them and had them in our prisons or our camps,
we were saving the Canadian people in Canada. We were preventing them from doing
any terrorist attacks.
“So doing nothing towards those citizens, that’s really not respectful for the
sacrifice that we have done,” Bali said.
The SDF had won a hard-fought peace in northern Syria, having finished off the
so-called caliphate and imprisoned roughly 100,000 ISIS fighters and their
families.
The Turkish offensive ended the calm and brought new urgency to the question of
the ISIS captives. Kurdish authorities said in interviews that an attack would
force them to pull their troops away from the ISIS prisons and camps to defend
the border, raising the risk of escapes.
On Friday, the SDF reported that women at Al-Hawl had started riots in an
attempt to escape.
About a dozen and a half Canadians and their two dozen children are detained by
the Kurdish forces. That’s not a huge number, but taken together, with every
other country that has abandoned its ISIS members to the Kurds, Canada is not
helping with its inaction.
During a visit to Syria last week, Global News and two researchers interviewed
several Canadian detainees. None had even spoken to any Canadian officials, and
Kurdish authorities said Canada had long ago halted talks about bringing them
back to Canada.
“The Canadian citizens who are here, they are six men and 12 women and some kids
so when we talk about Canada … it’s as big as 10 million metres squared. It’s a
very big country compared to our country,” Bali said.
“I’m just surprised how a big country like Canada cannot take six or 12 citizens
to their country.”
The world’s seeming disregard for the plight of the Kurds was on full display at
Al-Hawl camp, where the SDF has been battling to control ISIS women determined
to enforce their stark version of Islamic law on the population.
“The situation is really getting worse,” Bali said.
The women have been encouraged by a recent audio address in which ISIS leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi called on his supporters to free the women from what he
called the “prisons of humiliation,” officials said.
The ISIS propaganda arm Amaq claimed in a statement that an Oct. 9 attack on SDF
positions in Raqqa was a “response to the assault on female prisoners in the
camps.”
“They have nothing without all the women and they know that, too,” said Kimberly
Polman, a Canadian who was detained at Al-Hawl camp but has since been moved to
a different location.
The Canadians and other westerners at Al-Hawl are kept in a foreigners’ annex,
the scene of the Sept. 30 shootings, which occurred during a visit by Global
News, Prof. Amarnath Amarasingam of Queen’s University and Leah West, a national
security law expert at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.
Days earlier, a dismembered body was found in a septic tank at Al-Hawl, and the
body of a 20-year-old was later found with 16 stab wounds, an official said. A
14-year-old was murdered last month, allegedly for not wearing a niqab. Guards
have reportedly been stabbed. Kurds call the camp a “ticking time bomb.”
“I think it was pretty clear from our experience in Al-Hawl that there’s a small
subset of women who kind of run the show at the camp, who are very much kind of
overpowering a lot of the other women in the camp, policing what they wear,
policing what they can say, policing how they act,” Amarasingam said.
Left to fester, it will only get worse, he said, but there is a solution: the
four dozen countries with nationals at the camp, including Canada, can evacuate
their citizens and bring them home to stand trial for the crimes of ISIS.
The foreign minister for the administration that controls northeast Syria,
Abdulkarim Omar, said in an interview that the Canadian government was the first
to contact Kurdish authorities about its captured citizens. But since a meeting
almost two years ago to discuss the details of repatriation, Canada has halted
those discussions without explanation, he said.
“The government is aware of some Canadian citizens currently detained in Syria.
There is no legal obligation to facilitate their return,” said Public Safety
Minister Ralph Goodale’s spokesman Scott Bardsley.
Former Canadian Security Intelligence Service analyst Jessica Davis said that
while it was understandable Canadians would not want the detainees brought home,
politics and emotion had clouded policy-making.
“The reality is that these individuals are Canada’s problem, yesterday, today
and tomorrow. If they show up at our consulates or embassies, they will be a
very real problem.
“If they help to reconstitute the Islamic State, they will be an even bigger
one. And if they conduct terrorist attacks and take more lives, that will be on
us,” she wrote on Twitter.
With its rows and rows of tents and water tanks, Al-Hawl looks like an endless
desert campground, one populated by children.
They are everywhere.
A blond-haired boy with a bandage on his eye. A toddler taking shelter in the
shade of a tent flap. A little girl gripping a teddy bear. Women carrying babies
and pushing strollers. Even as the women stood together to defy the camp guards,
children were at their sides.
“Canada can and should do more to protect the rights of these children,
especially those who are Canadians,” said Kathy Vandergrift, chair of the
Canadian Coalition for the Rights of Children.
Because so many of the foreign children were born in ISIS-controlled areas, they
lack proof of their identity, which has made governments hesitant to take them
back.
Security concerns and the lack of domestic programs to rehabilitate and
reintegrate children raised under ISIS have also made countries reluctant to
repatriate them.
As a result, they have been left in an environment that seems like a factory for
producing the next generation of extremists.
Turkey says it will be responsible for ISIS prisoners in Syria ‘safe zone’
“We have those women in our hands, and every day, they are taking care of the
kids, how to make them ISIS, how to make them follow ISIS ideology,” said Bali,
the SDF spokesman.
The hardline women at Al-Hawl have recreated the ISIS system inside the camp,
using religious police called hisbah to enforce their rules, Kurdish officials
said.
The fatal shooting last week occurred after camp guards tried to break up a
sitting of a hisbah court, they said. Thirty-nine women were put under
investigation.
“They take these women because they want to learn Qur’an, that’s it,” a detainee
protested in English following the arrests. “We can’t read Qur’an in our tents?”
There were unconfirmed allegations women were armed with handguns.
“It’s craziness here!!!!” a Canadian detainee inside the camp wrote in a message
to her family following the shootings. “Please tell Canada we need to leave here
ASAP!!!”
Stewart.Bell@globalnews.ca
© 2019 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
The Swamp of The Turkish Syria Invasion
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2019
The strategy adopted by the Turkish government in all its policies is perhaps to
hide the real goals behind its actions. This is how it conducted a military
operation in northern Syria under a pretext that is almost impossible to
achieve, namely, “the return of refugees” and the establishment of a “security
zone.” The real objectives are completely different; they are not related
whatsoever to the alleged return.
The only truth is that what happened was a Turkish military invasion of Syrian
territory, at the sight of the world, is a clear violation of the basic rules of
international law.
Even if we assume that the Turkish operation succeeds in securing the return of
Arab refugees, the Syrian issue will be further complicated by the risk of
ethnic cleansing and a dramatic demographic change, with the policy of expelling
the Kurds from their areas where they lived for hundreds of years, and
resettling citizens from different regions on lands other than their own.
Then, undoubtedly, we will be facing a new disaster, which will further confuse
the blurry scene and prolong the war in Syria.
Politically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be in his frailest
condition. The internal complexities he faces, and the lingering divisions
within the Justice and Development Party, seem not enough, as he is now
confronting the whole world, which, from the first minutes, condemned his
country’s intervention in Syria.
Economically, Erdogan is confused with persistent facts that haunt him day and
night: the lira is collapsing, the government debt is increasing, sanctions are
exhausting his country, and military spending is burdening the economy, while
the military is dealing with difficult and complicated options.
No one knows for how long the military operation will continue, and what
consequences it will bring about in an area full of armed groups, not to mention
that the Kurds will not just be watching the operation to uproot them and drive
them out of their homeland.
Those, who had the upper hand in the expulsion of ISIS and the detention of
thousands of its members, suddenly found themselves under the weight of a
foreign military invasion targeting them and describing them all as
“terrorists”.
Needless to say, thousands of ISIS members, under the control of the Syrian
Democratic Forces, had entered Syria from the Turkish border gate. Moreover,
around 18,000 other ISIS fighters hiding in the region were now allowed to
re-emerge. We should imagine how Turkey would deal with them if they controlled
their positions.
It is true that the vague position of US President Donald Trump, who withdrew
his troops from northern Syria in a clear implicit signal, helped Erdogan make
his decision to invade the country; however, we must bear in mind that all US
institutions oppose the Turkish aggression, and President Trump’s move finds
support from neither the Congress’ Republicans and Democrats, nor the Pentagon.
We should pay attention here that once the United States decides to return to
support the Kurds, which is a probability, Turkey will be the first prey,
entangled in what it cannot withstand. It will have invaded Syria on the beat of
Erdogan’s enthusiastic speeches, but it certainly would not be able to get out
of the swamp into which it swiftly fell.
Its misleading headlines used to describe its military operations – such as the
“olive branch” and the “peace spring” - will be ineffective, because what
happened is unquestionably a blatant Turkish invasion and an occupation of Arab
lands. Its subsequent political and military tax on Turkey and its president
will be exorbitant.
A Game of All Losers in Syria
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79390/amir-taheri-a-game-of-all-losers-in-syria-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%83%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a/
While a "will-they won’t-they" speculation regarding a possible Turkish invasion
of Syria continues, we may be witnessing the clash of three aspirations that the
three parties to the drama hold to be legitimate.
In one corner of this triangle is President Donald J. Trump who triggered the
current phase of the crisis with a tweet announcing his decision to end
America’s military presence in Syria. That means abandoning Washington’s Kurdish
allies who helped defeat ISIS at the cost of more than 11,000 dead. An American
withdrawal would leave these Kurds, branded as “terrorist” by Ankara vulnerable
to attacks by superior Turkish forces. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
openly speaks of “ethnic cleansing” against the Syrian Kurds as part of his plan
to create a glacis within Syria to settle over a million Arab-Syrian refugees
currently in Turkish camps.
But, why is Trump’s decision legitimate in his own eyes and the eyes of his
supporters?
This is because Trump campaigned on a promise to end “the endless wars” that he
claims his predecessors started in the Middle East. Trumps’ idiosyncratic style
of decision-making shouldn’t hide the fact that a majority of Americans do not
wish to spend any more blood and treasure in faraway wars without any direct or
indirect impact on their own lives. Even if American withdrawal leads to a
resurgence of ISIS that should not be seen as a direct threat to the United
States 10,000 kilometers away. Also, resurgent ISIS would not be more dangerous
for US interests than its Khomeinist version based in Tehran.
There was a time when the US needed a massive presence in the region to ensure
the continuation of regular oil supplies to itself and the world markets in
general. Right now, however, fear of running out of oil is the least of any
American president’s worries. The end of the Cold War has also applied the law
of diminishing returns to the American presence in the Middle East. John Foster
Dulles’ “quarantine the aggressor” strategy and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Islamic
green belt” to suffocate the USSR are part of history as is the Soviet
challenger itself.
In terms of image and prestige, too, Trump may also have an excuse for his
decision. President George W Bush was pilloried for intervening in Iraq, and his
successor Barack Obama was vilified for not intervening in Syria. Since the US
is criticized, whether it intervenes or not, it would make no difference what
others, especially soft anti-Americans in Europe, say about his withdrawal move.
What about the feeling of legitimacy on the Turkish side of the triangle?
There, too, a case could be made for Erdogan’s desire to transform a chunk of
Syrian land on Turkey’s border into a cordon sanitaire against Kurdish military
incursion into Turkish territory. For almost four decades, Turkey has been
fighting a Kurdish insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a
Marxist-Leninist outfit dedicated to carving a Kurdish statelet in Anatolia.
This 40 years’ war has drained Turkey’s economic resources, slowed down
socio-political reform and facilitated the emergence of Erdoganism, a mixture of
Turkish chauvinism and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism, as the dominant ideology in
the country. Without that war, some analysts believe that Turkey would have
become a full-fledged democracy and a member of the European Union.
The irony in that is that Erdogan and his cohorts were initially swept to power
thanks to Kurdish votes as the PKK regarded anyone who stood against the
Kemalist ruling elite as an ally.
Erdogan has succeeded in depriving the PKK of any fall-back position, let alone
a safe haven, in other lands where ethnic Kurds are present. He has made an
alliance with Iraqi Kurds who have shut their autonomous region to armed PKK
units. Erdogan has also reached an anti-Kurd understanding with the mullahs in
Tehran ending the PKK’s 30-years long presence inside Iranian territory.
Moreover, the Turks are also building a 48-kilometer long wall on the Iranian
border to prevent even small-scale infiltration by Kurdish “terrorists.”
Erdogan’s plan to create an Ankara controlled enclave inside Syria is as popular
in Turkey as Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria is in the United States.
On the third side of the triangle, the Kurds defend the legitimacy of their own
cause. Of the 17 major ethnic-linguistic groups of the world still without a
state of their own, the Kurds are the largest. They are present in Turkey,
Syria, Iraq, Iran, former Soviet Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia since time
immemorial. Their aspiration to separate statehood started in the aftermath of
the First World War and the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire.
Then US President Woodrow Wilson promised them a state of their own but his
successors quickly forgot the whole thing. During the Second World War Josef
Stalin promised them a state and briefly tried to carve a chunk of Iranian
territory for that purpose. However, he, too, quickly betrayed his Kurdish
allies in exchange for a promise of a share in Iranian oil. In the 1970s, it was
the turn of President Richard Nixon, through his Secretary of State, the
self-styled Metternich of the time, to deceive the Kurds, this time in Iraq, and
abandoning them when no longer useful. Stabbing the Kurds in the back has a long
history.
What if our triangle has a fourth, not readily visible, angle?
That would be the United States as a superpower, the inventor of the current
world order, and the guardian of a minimum of international law for almost seven
decades. For eight years, Obama ignored that fact, making a speech each time
there was a crisis that needed a clear and decisive American position, not
necessarily military, even as far as diplomacy and economic measures were
concerned.
More impatient, perhaps, Trump has no time for Obamaesque long flowery but empty
speeches. Instead, he does the same thing with short, crisp tweets. The result
is the same: rendering the mechanism of the world order, with all its defects,
ineffective. And that means everyone will end up a loser, which, in this case,
means Turkey, the Kurds, Syria, the Middle East, Russia, Europe and, of course,
the United States.
Three Countries That Prospered in the ’10s Are in Trouble
Noah Smith/Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2019
Most developed countries grow at about the same rate, thanks to the broad march
of technological progress and globalization. But in each decade, there are a few
stars that outperform the rest. Typically, other rich nations look to these
winners for clues about how to raise their own growth rates.
In the decade since the financial crisis, Germany, Singapore and South Korea
stand out. All of these countries have outpaced the US since 2009.
For each of these countries, it’s possible to tell a story about why they’ve
done so well. Germany’s strong performance is often attributed to its small but
productive manufacturing companies, its harmonious relationship between
organized labor and management, its vocational education system, and its
substantial trade surpluses. Singapore’s success is sometimes credited to its
educational prowess, unique public-housing system, and government investment in
biotech and other cutting-edge industries. South Korea’s growth, meanwhile,
tends to be ascribed to the strength of its national champion companies,
especially Samsung Electronics Ltd. Writers, including myself, often recommend
that the US copy some of these policies in order to catch up.
But in the past year, these three countries’ economies have begun to look much
shakier. Even as US economic numbers look solid, Germany, South Korea and
Singapore have all either experienced recessions or come close.
The German economy shrank in this year's second quarter, and it is forecast to
contract even more in the third.
A decline in exports is the main cause. About one-eighth of this is due to a
slowdown in China, which has been a major customer of German capital equipment
and other products. But the whole world is buying less from Germany these days.
And where exports go, so goes the rest of the manufacturing sector.
My colleague Chris Bryant believes that a number of trends may be working
against the country’s industrial champions. The German automotive industry is
highly exposed to climate change, with tightening emissions rules posing a
threat to the future of diesel vehicles in particular. A number of European
cities are banning diesel vehicles entirely, and some countries in the region
have pledged to bar all internal combustion vehicles in the near future.
This shift means a painful adjustment for Germany. The German auto industry
represents a huge, deep pool of knowledge over a century in the making; the
switch to electric vehicle will quickly make a portion of that knowledge
obsolete.
South Korea’s economy grew in the second quarter, but it contracted by 0.4% in
the first. Inflation is falling as well, indicating a lack of demand.
As with Germany, exports are the problem, with semiconductors the biggest worry.
In recent years, South Korea has become a powerhouse in the industry, as Samsung
has eclipsed Intel Corp. as the world’s biggest (and possibly most
technologically advanced) semiconductor manufacturer. Semiconductor exports
represent about a quarter of South Korea’s entire economy. So a recent drop in
shipments – probably due to the China slowdown, the US-China trade dispute, and
another brewing trade war between South Korea and Japan – is bound to be
painful.
A retreat by Korean consumers could exacerbate the external shock. Households
there have taken on a lot of debt in recent years, and a drop in exports could
trigger a painful deleveraging.
Singapore, meanwhile, saw its economy shrink in the second quarter. Yet again,
falling exports and weakening manufacturing are the culprit. With exports
representing more than 170% of gross domestic product, Singapore is one of the
most trade-dependent countries in the world, and the US-China trade war –
including US restrictions on technology exports – will hit it hard. Ironically,
the protests ravaging Hong Kong may help Singapore to avoid a recession in the
short term, as financial and business activity shift from the former to the
latter. But the longer-term danger of the trade war, combined with an aging
population and slowing productivity, will remain.
So all three of these star performers share similar issues – slowing global
trade and falling demand for manufacturing imports. The end of China’s rapid
catch-up growth, plus the US-China trade war, signals an end to the global
economic model that drove growth during the past 20 years. And if the
Japan-Korea trade spat signals a more widespread turn toward economic
nationalism, the world’s export-dependent economies could be in for even more
pain. Meanwhile, the escalating urgency of climate change will disrupt
industries like autos that rely on burning fossil fuels.
The economic environment that made Germany, Singapore and South Korea the
champions of the 2010s is therefore coming to an end. This doesn’t mean that the
US has nothing to learn from these countries’ educational systems, labor
relations, and industrial policies; indeed, the US should copy their best
elements. But it’s a reminder that different types of economies are suited to
different times, and when the times change, the winners and losers change as
well.
France's Homegrown Terrorism
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 11/2019
French police investigating a woman for suspected ties to ISIS discovered a USB
drive that contained personal details, including home addresses, of thousands of
French police officials. Who provided that information?
"In the street, veiled women and men wearing jellabas are de facto propaganda,
an Islamization of the street, just as the uniforms of an occupying army remind
the defeated of their submission." – French journalist Eric Zemmour, September
28, 2019.
Le Monde, France's most prestigious newspaper, ran an op-ed after the recent
attack, charging the country with "Islamophobic McCarthyism." Harpon, the
terrorist who murdered his colleagues at police headquarters, would have agreed.
The problem is that France has, for years, been in a state of denial about the
proliferation of radical Islam.
Police officers block off a street near Paris police headquarters after a
terrorist murdered four officers in the building, on October 3, 2019 in Paris,
France.
This time, the terrorist did not use firearms; his victims were not unarmed
children, cartoonists or Jews but policemen.
The site of the October 3 attack was also striking: "The interior of the Paris
police headquarters is supposed to be a stronghold; it is the symbol of public
order in France and of the anti-jihadist struggle that has been shaken," the
French scholar Gilles Kepel told Le Figaro.
"We have entered a... terrorism made in France... with a mixture of Friday
preaching by extremist imams, social networks and the instrumentalization of
fragile individuals. It is about creating a new panic in society by targeting
iconic ... places... The attack is a major turning point in Islamist terrorism."
The assailant, Mickaël Harpon, born in the French Caribbean island of
Martinique, was shot and killed after stabbing four people to death with a
ceramic kitchen knife during the lunchtime assault at the Paris police
headquarters. Harpon, a civilian IT specialist in the intelligence division
holding high-level security clearance, had worked for the police for 16 years.
First he killed three men in the intelligence division, then he stabbed two
female police employees in a stairwell (one died from her wounds) before he
finally was shot and killed in the building's courtyard.
Harpon was a longtime convert to Islam and a conscientious attendee of his local
mosque, where he attended morning and evening prayers. A radical imam who was
nearly expelled from France officiated there.
According to the Wall Street Journal: "Authorities discovered several USB flash
drives at his desk, one containing the personal information of agents and
violent Islamist propaganda, authorities said.
"A key question is whether Harpon downloaded that data onto the flash drive for
his job... or to send it to his extremist contacts that could use it to target
the police."
In 2016, Patrick Calvar, France's director general of domestic intelligence --
pointing to the number of Salafists active in France (15,000 at the time) --
declared that "the confrontation is inevitable". Now one of them struck "the
system" from within.
"The attack at the police headquarters can be regarded as the most serious on
our soil since November 13, 2015," says Thibault de Montbrial, president of the
Center for Internal Security, a French think tank.
"For four years, France has undergone several attacks. Some had a very high
human cost, as in Nice in 2016. But that of the Prefecture is of a different
nature: it is the first 'blue on blue' attack, where a member of the police
force targets his comrades."
At the heart of the extremist agenda, it seems, lies separation. "How has a
multitude of Islamist networks managed to create ideological enclaves inside
popular neighborhoods?", asks the author Bernard Rougier in Les territoires
conquis de l'islamisme ("The conquered Territories of Islamism"). The
forthcoming book documents the functioning of Islamist networks in several
municipalities, such as Aubervilliers, Argenteuil, Tremblay-en-France, and
Mantes-la-Jolie.
According to the French journalist Eric Zemmour: "In the street, veiled women
and men wearing jellabas are de facto propaganda, an Islamization of the street,
just as the uniforms of an occupying army remind the defeated of their
submission. For the bygone triptych of 'immigration, integration, assimilation'
has been substituted 'invasion, colonization, occupation.'"
In 2016, an internal police memorandum revealed that between 2012 and 2015,
there were many instances in Paris of police officers engaging in radical
behavior or acts that concerned their superiors. In one instance, in 2016, a
jihadist stabbed a police commander and his partner at their home in Magnanville,
west of Paris; and French police investigating a woman for suspected ties to
ISIS discovered a USB drive containing the personal details, including the home
addresses, of thousands of French police officials. Who provided that
information?
The general impression is that France is now overwhelmed with a proliferation of
radicalized inhabitants. The terrorist who opened fire on a Christmas market in
Strasbourg in 2018 had been on the terrorism watchlist; so were the terrorists
who struck the Trébes supermarket and the man who murdered Jewish children at a
school in Toulouse. Although the French authorities knew of them, they were
unable to stop them.
There seems to be a terrible security breach. The problem in France, however,
lies deeper than that. According to a report by the Pew Center, by 2050, 12% to
18% of France's population will be Muslim. Conversions to Islam are rising.
Extremism is becoming such an integral part of the country that, according to
the historian Pierre-André Taguieff, for many French citizens, jihadism has
become an "attraction". There are now several villages in the French countryside
where converts and fundamentalists retreat to practice a "pure" form of Islam.
Paying homage to the victims of the terror attack at Paris police headquarters,
President Emmanuel Macron declared that France must fight the "hydra" of
Islamist militancy. The problem is that France has, for years, been in a state
of denial about the proliferation of radical Islam. "In some districts," said
the Algerian author Boualem Sansal, "France is an aspiring Islamic republic."
Le Monde, France's most prestigious newspaper, ran an op-ed after the recent
attack, charging the country with "Islamophobic McCarthyism." Harpon, the
terrorist who murdered his colleagues at police headquarters, would have agreed:
he shared articles calling France "one of the most Islamophobic country in
Europe" -- so Islamophobic, in fact, that even Ahmed Hilali, the radical imam in
touch with the Harpon, had received an order of deportation from France for his
extremist ideas, but the order was never implemented.
Alexis Brézet, editor of Le Figaro, coined the term "dénislamisme" ("denial of
Islamism"):
"How is this possible? How could an Islamist terrorist be so wrapped up in the
state apparatus, at the very heart of the police structure that is precisely
supposed to fight the Islamist practices, perpetrate the massacre? Dénislamisme
endangers the French. It blurs the perception of the threat and disarms the
spirits. At a time when mobilization should be maximum, it paralyzes the fight
against Islamist infiltration in our democracies. Dénislamisme kills. We will
not win the war that radical Islam has declared on us by continuing to walk with
our eyes shut".
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
China: Modern Blueprint for Global Power
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/October 11/2019
President Xi Jinping's doctrine includes rejecting as illegitimate any "unequal
treaties" forced on China by Euro-Atlantic powers, such as Great Britain's
imposition of the McMahon Line, which awarded to the British Crown Colony of
India hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of Chinese territory.
Chinese military exercises, new weapons systems and the surreptitious
militarization of several landfill and disputed islands in the South China Sea,
all indicate that Beijing intends to become -- at the very least -- East Asia's
dominant regional power, thereby supplanting the US as the pre-eminent authority
in the Western Pacific Ocean.
According to one American analyst on Chinese military affairs, in 2018 alone,
China conducted approximately 100 military exercises with 17 countries.
In recent years, the Chinese Navy has been demonstrating better precision
targeting by its anti-ship missile system, the presumed target being US aircraft
carriers.
It appears that the strategic objective of China to establish regional primacy
in the Western Pacific, and possibly in Asia, is militarily, politically and
economically achievable. The world, however, is no longer under any illusions
about China's acquisitive intent. US President Donald Trump indicated recently
that America harbors no illusions about China's unbridled ambitions. Pictured:
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during Trump's state visit to
China, on November 9, 2017 in Beijing. (Photo by Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images)
The People's Republic of China, which celebrated its 70th anniversary on October
1, is led by the Chinese Communist Party's General Secretary, President Xi
Jinping. In his speeches, Xi often refers to "Qiang Zhong Gwo Meng" ("the
Chinese dream"), a code phrase for the era of rejuvenation when China will
eventually overtake the United States as the most powerful nation in the
world.[1]
Xi claims that China offers the world a different type of rising global leader
-- a "guiding power."[2]
Beijing apologists depict China as a non-predatory power, comparing it favorably
to Europe's colonial countries in the past and to today's United States.
Similarly, the state-controlled Chinese media depict Chinese statecraft as being
based on and reflecting ancient Confucian ethics:
Only when things are investigated is knowledge extended; only when knowledge is
extended are thoughts sincere; only when thoughts are sincere are minds
rectified; only when minds are rectified are the characters of persons
cultivated; only when character is cultivated are our families regulated; only
when families are regulated are states well governed; only when states are well
governed is there peace in the world.
This portrayal is part of China's traditional self-image as "Jungwo" (the
"Middle Kingdom"), a society synonymous with "civilization," as opposed to the
"barbarians" beyond its borders. Such was the impetus for China's Great Wall: to
keep out uncultured barbarians.
In spite of China's pretense of being a new type of global power, Beijing's
attempt to restore its historical role as a world leader involves ancient
Chinese political concepts. Xi's call for China's "rejuvenation," for instance,
is a signal to his people that under the leadership of the Communist Party, the
national humiliations endured during the 19th and 20th centuries will be
redressed.
Xi's nationalist sentiment echoes the ideas of Sun Yat-sen, the "founding
father" and first president of the Chinese Republic. Sun called for the embrace
of "Min-ts'u" ("people's nationalism") to redeem the nation from its status as a
"hypo-colony" ruled by many colonial masters,[3] including tiny Portugal, which
dominated the South China Sea.[4]
Xi's doctrine includes rejecting as illegitimate any "unequal treaties" forced
on China by Euro-Atlantic powers, such as Great Britain's imposition of the
McMahon Line, which awarded to the British Crown Colony of India hundreds of
thousands of square kilometers of Chinese territory.[5] China never recognized
the McMahon Line; it was among the factors ultimately leading to an India-China
War in 1962 and periodic skirmishes ever since.
This determination to retrieve Chinese territory might be rooted in Xi's sense
of humiliation, still felt among Chinese patriots of all political persuasions,
who harbor an enduring resentment over such Euro-Atlantic encroachment.[6]
Xi's posture is also possibly an indirect warning to the West, which may be
harboring a desire to assist the people of Hong Kong in their drive for more
autonomy from Beijing. This warning underscores the willingness of the Chinese
Communist leadership to engage the United States in a limited military conflict,
should the US support Hong Kong's or Taiwan's official independence from China
or if it positions offensive strategic-weapons systems on those lands.
In his essay, "If You Want Peace Prepare for War" -- using the famous quote from
the ancient Roman strategist, Publius Flavius Renatus -- Chinese author Li
Mingfu states that if the US attempts to block the Chinese Motherland's
unification with Taiwan, China is ready militarily to force unification.[7]
There can be little doubt that Xi's China is deeply committed to the retrieval
of Formosa (Taiwan) as an integral part of the Chinese patrimony. Historically,
China risked war with Japan after Japanese expeditions to the island
province.[8] China also has resisted past attempts by Britain to weaken its hold
on Tibet. Moreover, despite fierce resistance to Russia's 19th century invasions
in the northwestern province of Xinjiang (Sinkiang), China lost control of the
region. That event also might help to explain for China's willingness to invite
universal condemnation for its massive human-rights violations against the
region's Uighur Muslim population, rather than risk again losing control of the
province to Islamist independence movements. [9]
Chinese military exercises, new weapons systems and the surreptitious
militarization of several landfill and disputed islands in the South China Sea,
all indicate that Beijing intends to become -- at the very least -- East Asia's
dominant regional power, thereby supplanting the US as the pre-eminent authority
in the Western Pacific Ocean. According to one American analyst on Chinese
military affairs, in 2018 alone, China conducted approximately 100 military
exercises with 17 countries.[10]
In recent years, the Chinese Navy has been demonstrating better precision
targeting by its anti-ship missile system, the presumed targets being US
aircraft carriers. The Chinese Air Force now utilizes runways built on some of
the disputed islands, and has also landed heavy bombers there.
In addition, the Chinese also have deployed anti-ship missiles and jet fighter
planes on disputed islands. These developments suggest that in the event of a
crisis or conflict with the West and its Asian allies, the Chinese Communist
Party's Military Commission is planning to leapfrog any possible Free World
strategy to confine China's naval and air assets to the Chinese mainland.
China's economic model, according to which a socialist regime will for the first
time surpass the world's greatest capitalist enterprise, also has historical
roots. For millennia, China was the premier power in Asia, if not the world.
During that time, China's diplomacy centered on the "Tributary System," whereby
regional states recognized the superiority of Chinese Civilization."[11]
Many of China's neighboring states, such as Annam (Northern Vietnam), Korea and
even Japan, for a period, rendered an annual tribute to the Chinese imperial
court,[12] acknowledging the imperial dynasty's august standing under heaven.
The emperor's dynastic administration would in turn provide generous support for
compliant neighboring countries. Xi's Belt and Road Initiative bears some --
dubious -- resemblance to the tributary system of dynastic China. This
initiative has China providing the income and expertise to build the logistical
infrastructure of a recipient nation, which in turn imports Chinese goods and
services employing that new infrastructure. Worse, however, China lends
countries money; then when the country cannot repay the debt, China helps itself
to resources or infrastructure or whatever, in a "debt-trap."
To date, it appears that the strategic objective of China to establish regional
primacy in the Western Pacific, and possibly in Asia, is militarily, politically
and economically achievable. The world, however, is no longer under any
illusions about China's acquisitive intent.
US President Donald J. Trump also indicated recently -- during his September 24
address to the UN General Assembly -- that America harbors no illusions about
China's unbridled ambitions.
Trump said, in part: "In 2001, China was admitted to the World Trade
Organization. Our leaders then argued that this decision would compel China to
liberalize its economy and strengthen protections to provide things that were
unacceptable to us, and for private property and for the rule of law. Two
decades later, this theory has been tested and proven completely wrong.
"Not only has China declined to adopt promised reforms, it has embraced an
economic model dependent on massive market barriers, heavy state subsidies,
currency manipulation, product dumping, forced technology transfers, and the
theft of intellectual property and also trade secrets on a grand scale...
"For years, these abuses were tolerated, ignored, or even encouraged. Globalism
exerted a religious pull over past leaders, causing them to ignore their own
national interests.
"But as far as America is concerned, those days are over. To confront these
unfair practices, I placed massive tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of
Chinese-made goods. Already, as a result of these tariffs, supply chains are
relocating back to America and to other nations, and billions of dollars are
being paid to our Treasury.
"The American people are absolutely committed to restoring balance to our
relationship with China. Hopefully, we can reach an agreement that would be
beneficial for both countries...
"As we endeavor to stabilize our relationship, we're also carefully monitoring
the situation in Hong Kong. The world fully expects that the Chinese government
will honor its binding treaty, made with the British and registered with the
United Nations, in which China commits to protect Hong Kong's freedom, legal
system, and democratic ways of life. How China chooses to handle the situation
will say a great deal about its role in the world in the future..."
It is imperative for the administration in Washington to continue to exert
maximum pressure on Beijing, to prevent China's hegemonic aims being realized.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in
the Air Force Reserve.
[1] The Hundred Year Marathon: China's Strategy to Replace America As the Global
Superpower by Michael Pillsbury. St Martin's Griffon Press: 2016. p. 27.
[2] Ibid. p.29.
[3] San Min Chu I ("The Three Principles of the People") by Sun Yat-sen.
Chungking: Ministry of Information of the Republic of China, 1943. pp. 4-5.
[4] The China Dream by Liu Mingfu p. 18.
[5] The Sino-Indian Boundary Question, Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1962. p.
2.
[6] Sun Yat-sen: His Life and Its Meaning, by Lyon Sharman. Stanford University
Press: 1934. p. 318.
[7] The China Dream by Liu Mingfu. p. 205-206.
[8] The Rise of Modern China by Immanuel C. Y. Hsu. New York: Oxford University
Press. p. 316.
[9] Ibid. p.317.
[10] "US-China Relations Seminar," Dirksen Senate Office Building: 4 September
2019. "Opening Statement by Professor Oriana Mastro" of Georgetown University
School of Foreign Service and American Enterprise Institute Security Studies
Analyst.
[11] The Rise of Modern China by Immanuel C. Y. Hsu. pp. 130-132.
[12] Ibid.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Trump’s Syria surprise merely a reversion to form
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 11/2019
Just last week, in this publication, I counterintuitively argued that, far from
the impeachment process compelling the administration to “wag the dog” —
initiating a foreign adventure to distract attention from Donald Trump’s
domestic woes — modern presidencies get more cautious when threatened by the
maelstrom of scandal, reverting to form. It took only a week, and Trump’s
surprise decision to head for the door in Syria, to prove me right.
Predictably, the Washington foreign policy establishment, which to a man never
met a foreign intervention it didn’t like, had the vapors following the
president’s shock announcement. The change in US Syria policy followed directly
upon a strained conversation between the White House and Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan over the weekend.
In it, Erdogan made clear that his patience with the paper-thin August
US-Turkish compromise over the Syrian-Turkish border was over. Then, Washington
and Ankara had come to an agreement to create a safe zone in northern Syria,
under which US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would pull
back
from the border. The safe zone was to be jointly patrolled by America and
Turkey, and this was supposed to forestall a threatened Turkish offensive.
However, Erdogan’s patience with the compromise evaporated in only a matter of
weeks. Come hell or high water, Turkey was set to cross the line of control,
going after the large Syrian Kurd statelet in the northeast of the country,
which geographically accounts for fully a third of Syria proper.
Rather than defending its Syrian Kurd allies, who since 2014 have fought
side-by-side with US Special Forces as the tip of the sword in combating Daesh
(they have suffered 11,000 casualties in prevailing in the operation), the White
House gave Erdogan the green light to cross the border. Trump announced he was
moving some 1,000 American troops away from the border and out of the way of the
expected Turkish onslaught, robbing the Syrian Kurd allies of their shield.
In return for US acquiescence in the Turkish offensive, Erdogan assured Trump
that Turkey would take over (from the Syrian Kurds) the detention of tens of
thousands of suspected Daesh militants captured by the SDF. Wasting no time,
Ankara announced it would immediately begin its offensive in northern Syria. The
proposed Turkish corridor in northern Syria would comprise an initial depth of
32 km and a length of 480 km, including in it the Syrian Kurds’ largest urban
centers — Qamishli has a population of 250,000.
What explains the president’s dramatic about-face? The (perpetually) outraged
Washington foreign policy community, rather than thinking through what the White
House is doing, instead has come to their usual, braindead conclusion that their
adversary must not be thinking at all. Arrogantly, they believe that every
right-thinking person must agree with them that any US withdrawal from Syria is
illogical at best and mad at worst.
Yet, as I made clear last week, Trump is instead merely following the playbook
for presidents mired in scandal by placing foreign and domestic policy on
autopilot and merely continuing with the policies and impulses put in place,
rather than going off-course and engaging in new and dangerous strategic
adventures.
Trump is following the playbook for presidents mired in scandal by placing
foreign and domestic policy on autopilot.
In greenlighting the Turkish incursion, Trump is reverting to his Jacksonian
form, continuing his attempt to disentangle the US from the morasses of Syria,
Iraq and Afghanistan, where limited American interests are at stake. As Trump
himself tweeted: “It’s time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars…
and bring our soldiers home.” Getting out of these “forever wars” is the one
point on which Trump and Barack Obama are in agreement, and where the American
public sides with both — in complete repudiation of the Washington foreign
policy elite.
The key to this unseen struggle between Trump’s Jacksonianism and the foreign
policy commentariat lies in the paltry number of troops presently deployed in
Syria. Around 2,000 soldiers are stationed there, where they are tasked with the
Herculean labors of: Eventually overturning the Assad government; defeating the
Daesh remnants; eventually forcing Russia to leave the country; helping the
Syrian Kurds cordon off the country from Iranian influence; and protecting the
Kurds from NATO ally Turkey. Obviously, this mammoth list of tasks would be
beyond a force of 20,000 soldiers, let alone 2,000 — a fact that the American
interventionists in both parties and the Jacksonians all accept.
And that, in a way, is the whole point. Faced with an under-matched US force
confronted with an overly-ambitious strategic wish list, the American elite
expected Trump to revert to standard US post-Cold War form and up the
deployment. Instead, confronted with this same set of facts, his ideological
Jacksonianism has kicked in: Writing off a mission that cannot be accomplished
and is not worth the vast American involvement it would require, he is set on
winding down a war (utterly tragic as it is) and focusing on the US’ primary
strategic interests.
In the midst of the present impeachment crisis, Trump has indeed reverted to
form in Syria. In doing so, he has again shocked his own interventionist
establishment and indeed much of the world. But, as regular readers of this
column can attest to, there is indeed method to his madness.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman
Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also
senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be
contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.
Turkish assault aggravates Middle East tensions
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/October 11/2019
Piously titled “Operation Peace Spring,” Turkey’s assault on northeast Syria,
which began on Wednesday, is aimed at clearing the border area of the largely
Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey describes as “terrorists,”
and creating a “safe zone” for the resettlement of about 2 million of the 3.6
million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
This is Turkey’s third military incursion into Syria since 2016, the earlier two
have given it control over 3,500 square kilometers of territory in the north of
the country. The latest attack has been condemned in Middle East and European
capitals, while the Red Cross has warned of a humanitarian disaster. US
President Donald Trump has called it a “bad idea.”
Ironically, the ground for this attack was prepared three days earlier in
Washington, when the White House issued a statement saying that, following a
telephone call between the US and Turkish presidents, Turkey would soon be
moving into northern Syria and that US armed forces “will not support or be
involved in the operation.”
Trump then tweeted about the “endless and ridiculous wars” inherited from the
Barack Obama era, and said it was time to “bring our soldiers home.” He added
that it was up to Turkey, Russia, the Kurds and Europe “to figure the situation
out.” Trump said he had consulted widely at home and abroad and that most
parties were “thrilled by the decision.” There are doubts about the veracity of
both of these assertions.
This appears to be a unilateral Trumpian initiative, with no consultations with
the State Department, the Pentagon or allies. Indeed, “thrill” was a feeling
clearly missing from responses to the president’s remarks. Sen. Lindsey Graham
described the plan as “impulsive,” “shortsighted” and “irresponsible.” The US’
Kurdish allies in the SDF described northeast Syria as a “mechanism of death,”
while Middle East allies spoke of betrayal.
In an attempt at damage control, Trump warned he would “totally destroy and
obliterate the economy of Turkey” if it were to do anything that he, in his
“great and unmatched wisdom, (would) consider to be off limits.” But, a day
later, he announced that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be his
guest on Nov. 13.
The implications of this latest Turkish attack are not clear. It could be a
limited operation to shape the proposed safe zone, which stretches about 350
kilometers along the border and up to 35 kilometers into Syrian territory.
However, the SDF could view this as an existential threat. Having fought Daesh
forces successfully and taken 11,000 casualties, they could decide to give the
Turks a hard fight.
The Kurds enjoy considerable support in the US and in European capitals, where
the Turkish military action will be closely scrutinized for possible war crimes.
More immediately, the Pentagon, having worked hard to organize the SDF to fight
Daesh, will resist Turkey’s plans to decimate the force and occupy the region,
even if it is presented as a fight against Daesh.
Then there is the problem of how to handle the near-70,000 Daesh militants who
are presently in SDF custody. A conflict could lead to many of them getting free
and re-emerging as the formidable and cruel fighting force they once were. US
officials say they will move into Turkish custody, though no discussions have
been held with the SDF. Trump has confirmed that two prominent Daesh militants,
linked with the beheadings of foreigners, are now in US custody.
There are grave doubts about the viability of Erdogan’s plan to relocate 2
million refugees to newly built villages and towns in northeast Syria. This is
likely to cost more than $26 billion and has not evoked much enthusiasm in
Europe, where the latest Turkish incursion has been sharply criticized. A US
official has described this idea as “crazy.”
Having fought Daesh forces successfully and taken 11,000 casualties, the SDF
could decide to give the Turks a hard fight.
Most importantly, Turkey’s partners in the Astana peace process — Russia and
Iran — have serious reservations about Ankara’s military plans. For Russia, the
priority now is the recently set up constitutional committee for Syria; it would
not like to see this committee’s deliberations jeopardized by a war initiated by
Turkey. Russia and Iran are also committed to Syria’s territorial integrity and
will not countenance Turkey’s occupation of a large part of the country.
The US clearing the way for the Turkish attack appears to be a last-ditch effort
to wean Turkey away from the Russian embrace and get it back as a full-time NATO
member. This is delusional, given Erdogan’s single-mindedness in matters
relating to the Kurds and in asserting Turkey’s premier status in regional
matters.
The outlook for Syria is unclear, since Turkey’s ambitions are likely to clash
with those of its allies, while some Kurds might even see advantage in working
with the Assad government, as is being promoted by Iran and Russia.
As the 2020 presidential election looms, Trump is not going to give up his
interest in getting US troops home. This is creating power vacuums that could
aggravate regional tensions and even lead to ill-considered military activity.
The Middle East can be expected to remain on the cusp of uncertainty and
suffused with a sense of imminent crisis, which has been its hallmark for some
years now.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman
and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis
International University, Pune, India.