LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 08/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse them. Rejoice with those who rejoice, weep with those who weep
Letter to the Romans 12,/09-15/:”Let love be genuine; hate what is evil, hold fast to what is good; love one another with mutual affection; outdo one another in showing honour. Do not lag in zeal, be ardent in spirit, serve the Lord. Rejoice in hope, be patient in suffering, persevere in prayer. Contribute to the needs of the saints; extend hospitality to strangers. Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse them. Rejoice with those who rejoice, weep with those who weep.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 07- 08/2019
Aoun: Lebanon Has Ability to Confront Domestic, External Pressures
Salameh Says 'No Parallel Market' for Dollars in Lebanon
Central Bank Still Providing Dollars to Local Markets: Salameh
Hariri Says Lebanese Govt Rejects Any Hostile Activity against Gulf States
UAE Ends Lebanon Travel Ban, Hariri 'Very Optimistic' about Further Support
UAE to lift Lebanon travel ban from Tuesday
Geagea Calls Upon Ministers of the Majority to Resign
Jumblat Slams Presidency and Its 'Cronies', Calls State Security a Gang
Egyptian ambassador pays farewell visit to Jreissati
Abu Ghazaleh announces AROQA's 11th annual conference under patronage of Aboul Gheit
Hassan meets UAE's Seif Ben Zayed in Abu Dhabi
Jarrah meets with electronic press representatives, says Lebanon endures economic, financial crisis
NAYA l Women’s activist Nadyn Jouny dies in car accident
Israeli Force Tries to Nab Shepherd from Border Area

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 07- 08/2019
Pentagon Says It Doesn't Endorse Turkish Military Operation in Syria
Trump on decision to withdraw troops: US was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days
US forces will not be involved in Turkish operations in northern Syria
US Senator Graham calls for reversal of Syria border pullback
Iraq Military Admits 'Excessive Force' Used in Deadly Protests
Khamenei’s Representative in IRGC: US Seeking to Destroy PMF
Anguish for Jailed UK-Iranian Mother at Sending Daughter to Britain
Iran Confirms Arrest of Russian Journalist
Urgent Israeli Meeting to Discuss New Iranian Threats
Netanyahu's Pre-Indictment Hearing Wrapped Up
Jordan Complains against Israeli Detention of Two Nationals
Turkish Ship to Begin Drilling for Oil off Cyprus on Monday or Tuesday
Bahrain’s Crown Prince Hails Continuous Support of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait
Egypt: Parliament Steps Up its Rhetoric against Ethiopia over GERD
Blast targeting bus kills 10, injures 27 in Afghanistan’s Jalalabad
Britain’s Johnson asks France’s Macron to ‘push forward’ on Brexit
British PM Johnson Warns EU He Will Not Delay Brexit

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 07- 08/2019
Iran is smuggling artillery precision parts to Hizballah by Syrian IL-76s through a Syrian air base/DEBKAfile/October 07/2019
Have the Iraqis Missed the Opportunity/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 07/2019
US Throws Kurdish Allies Under the Bus; Turkey "Opens the Floodgates" to Europe/Sezen Şahin/Gatestone Institute/October 07/2019
What Iran's Friends Are Doing in Gaza/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 07/2019
Why Did Iraqi Forces Shoot Protesters/Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 07/2019
Saudi Arabia will act rationally, unlike Iran/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 08/ 2019
Only genuine, radical and deep-seated reform can save Iraq/Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/October 08/ 2019
Oil — weakening global economic outlook trumps geopolitics/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 08/ 2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 07- 08/2019
Aoun: Lebanon Has Ability to Confront Domestic, External Pressures
Naharnet/October 07/2019
President Michel Aoun on Monday reassured that Lebanon will “overcome the difficult economic circumstances that it is currently going through.”“The measures that are being taken on the economic and financial levels will revitalize the national economy and the productive sectors,” Aoun said during a meeting with Archbishop Joseph al-Zehlaoui, the Metropolitan of the Antiochian Orthodox Christian Archdiocese of North America. “Lebanon has the ability to confront the domestic and external pressures that it is facing, especially that national unity is safeguarded and the political disputes are not affecting the general national stance,” the president added. Noting that the contacts he made over the past 48 hours have achieved positive results regarding the demands of money changers and the owners of fuel stations, Aoun vowed to maintain his efforts to “resolve the rest of the pending issues.”

Salameh Says 'No Parallel Market' for Dollars in Lebanon
Naharnet/October 07/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh reassured Monday that there is no “parallel market” for U.S. dollars in Lebanon. “Banque du Liban is continuously supplying the Lebanese markets with dollars for steady prices,” said Salameh in remarks to the second UAE-Lebanon Investment Forum in Abu Dhabi. Commenting on the latest dollar shortage crisis in the Lebanese markets, the governor admitted that “it’s true that we have recently witnessed some kind of circumvention of the dollar to Lebanese lira exchange rates and a dollar shortage problem at money exchange shops.”“But in Lebanon, the money exchange operations are a trade in currency notes, and under the Lebanese law, money changers do not have the right to carry out semi-banking transactions, nor to work for a third party,” Salameh added. “This is an important point, because thanks to it, we cannot say that there is a parallel market for the dollar in Lebanon, as has been recently said, unless banks start announcing prices higher than those endorsed by the central bank,” he said. Salameh also noted that over the past 12 months, deposits in Lebanese banks were “stable.”“We did not witness a growth of these deposits, but we also did not witness a drop,” he pointed out. On Tuesday, the central bank said it will facilitate access to dollars for importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine. Banks and money exchange shops last month started rationing dollar sales in the country, where Lebanese pounds and U.S. dollars are used interchangeably in everyday transactions. Petrol station owners had staged a strike over a lack of dollars at a fixed exchange rate to pay for imports, while flour producers complained they had to resort to much higher rates from money changers. Lebanon has had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place since 1997. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- more than 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of that debt is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks. In July, parliament passed an austerity budget as part of conditions to unlock $11 billion in aid pledged at a conference in Paris last year.

Central Bank Still Providing Dollars to Local Markets: Salameh
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
The head of Lebanon's central bank said on Monday it is continuing to provide dollars to local financial markets, adding the country has "numerous possibilities" as it looks for assistance to curb a sharp loss of investor confidence. "We know there is a lot of noise about the monetary situation, however the capacities are available and we are continuing to secure dollars to the markets in Lebanon," Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh, who is in the United Arab Emirates for meetings, said in comments to journalists distributed by Tele Liban. Asked if the UAE may provide Lebanon with financial assistance by subscribing to a bond issue, he said: "There are numerous possibilities and discussions. But this matter is left to heads of state. They will decide."

Hariri Says Lebanese Govt Rejects Any Hostile Activity against Gulf States
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
The Lebanese government rejects any activities hostile to Gulf countries, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who is visiting Abu Dhabi, said in an interview published Monday. "As head of the government, I refuse any form of Lebanese involvement in the conflicts around us. Moreover, I stress that the Lebanese cabinet refuses to intervene or participate in activities of any organization that is hostile to the Arabian Gulf countries," Hariri told the Emirates News Agency (WAM). He was responding to a question about Hezbollah’s activities in the region. He reiterated that the Lebanese government has adopted a policy of disassociation from external conflicts and has rejected to meddle in the internal affairs of Arab countries. “However, this decision is regrettably violated, not by the government but by a political side represented in the government," said the prime minister, who arrived in Abu Dhabi on Sunday on a two-day official visit. Hariri affirmed that "Hezbollah should be accused in its capacity as a component of a regional system and not as a party" in his government. "Lebanon is an integral part of the Arab world, and its stability is governed by the overall stability and security of the Arab world, especially in political and economic spheres," he stressed. Hariri is leading a delegation, including six ministers and other top officials, to attend the second UAE-Lebanon Investment Forum that kicked off in Abu Dhabi on Monday. Held under the auspices of the UAE Ministry of Economy and Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the forum will have several sessions and workshops that bring UAE investors together with their Lebanese counterparts. "There will be discussions with high-ranking officials about the situation in the region," Hariri told WAM. The prime minister expressed hope that the forum would help attract UAE investments to Lebanon, especially in food, infrastructure, oil and gas, and renewable energy. "We are going to discuss with the officials how Lebanon can help meet the objectives of food security strategy in the UAE," the prime minister revealed. Asked about the September 14 attack on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, he said: "It was a reckless step that put the Arabian Gulf and regional peace on the brink of a flare-up and increased tension in the region.”He also praised “the wisdom” of the Saudi leadership, “which has managed to shed light on the premeditated goals of aggression, and has not been dragged into the provocative attempts made by the other side."

UAE Ends Lebanon Travel Ban, Hariri 'Very Optimistic' about Further Support
Naharnet/October 07/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday announced that he was “very optimistic” regarding expected Emirati support for Lebanon, after he held talks with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and took part in the second UAE-Lebanon Investment Forum. “My visit to Abu Dhabi made me very optimistic and I thank Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for his support,” Hariri told reporters. “The Lebanese media is waiting for me to announce an initiative, but I will leave this matter to the Emirati state. Many rumors will be spread, but thank God the atmosphere is very good,” Hariri added. He had earlier suggested that an Emirati initiative to support Lebanon was a matter of a few hours. “God willing, there will be good news today,” Hariri had said. Speaking in the evening, the premier said the Emirati-Lebanese higher committee “will soon convene in Lebanon” after which “many agreements” will be signed. A statement issued by Hariri’s office said the two leaders “discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region and the bilateral relations between the two countries.”Later on Monday, the UAE announced that it will allow its citizens to travel to Lebanon as of Tuesday. Hariri earlier visited the Martyrs’ Memorial (Wahat Al Karama), with the Lebanese delegation, where he laid a wreath. At the end of the tour, Hariri wrote in the visitors’ book: “We pay homage to the sacrifices of the heroes of the UAE Armed Forces, who have given their lives to this beloved country and defended the safety of its dear people and Arabism as a whole. May God have mercy on your righteous martyrs.”Hariri had earlier in the day taken part in the UAE-Lebanon Investment Forum.

UAE to lift Lebanon travel ban from Tuesday
Georgi Azar/Annahar/October 07/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri held talks with senior UAE officials, including Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in a bid to secure financial injections in its economy.
BEIRUT: The UAE announced that it will lift its ban on its citizens traveling to Lebanon from Tuesday, UAE state news agency WAM said on Monday, as Prime Minister Saadh Hariri held crucial talks with officials to shore up support for the small Mediterranean country. Hariri held talks with senior UAE officials, including Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in a bid to secure financial injections in its economy. The talks were held at the sideline of an investment forum, sponsored by the UAE Economy Ministry and the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce, with the aim of bolstering the economic relationship between the two states. Lebanon is currently reeling under massive financial debt, estimated at around 150 percent of GDP. Hariri also condemned "hostile activities" against Gulf states, saying that Lebanon should not "interfere or participate in any hostile activities that target Gulf countries", during an interview with the Emirates News Agency. In a reference to Hezbollah, Hariri also laid the blame for any violations at the feet of the Iranian militant group, saying that "unfortunately, this decision has been violated. Not by the government, but by one of the political parties in the government."The premier also called on Emirati companies to invest in Lebanon’s infrastructure, which has steadily deteriorated as a result of the protracted Syrian refugee crisis. “We are here to strengthen the partnership between the Emirati and the Lebanese private sectors. We hope for Emirati companies to invest in the gas, electricity and telecommunications sectors,” Hariri said. Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh sought to alleviate concerns over dollar liquidity, saying that dollar requirements will continue to be met. "There are numerous possibilities and discussions. But this matter is left to heads of state. They will decide," he said, in a response to a question on whether the UAE will provide Lebanon with financial assistance by subscribing to a bond issue.

Geagea Calls Upon Ministers of the Majority to Resign
Naharnet/October 07/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea called upon ministers of the majority to resign from the government in order to make way for another lineup that would make a different approach to the current situation, the National News Agency reported on Monday. "The sole radical solution lies within the resignation of the current ministers of the majority,” Geagea said during the LF annual dinner banquet in Laval, Canada. "We want a different government, and I do not mean a government of technocrats technically," the LF leader noted.
"We want a different government that would make different approaches in order to reach different results," he explained.

Jumblat Slams Presidency and Its 'Cronies', Calls State Security a Gang
Naharnet/October 07/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Monday launched his fiercest rant yet against President Michel Aoun’s tenure, as he blasted the State Security agency as a “gang.”“Let the presidential tenure and its cronies be reassured: every time you arrest one of us, hatred towards you and towards State Security and its gang will increase,” Jumblat tweeted. “No sirs, the country can’t be ruled through tyranny, oppression, theft and hunger. Any citizen has the right to free expression and your rhetoric or statements are not politer than those who are fed up. Teach your people some manners first,” the PSP leader added. His ferocious tirade comes a few days after a PSP activist was summoned to interrogation over a political Facebook post.

Egyptian ambassador pays farewell visit to Jreissati
NNA - Mon 07 Oct 2019
Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Salim Jreissati, on Monday welcomed Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon, Nazih al-Naggari, who paid him a farewell visit marking the end of his diplomatic mission in Lebanon. Jreissati praised the Egyptian diplomat’s endeavors during his tenure in Lebanon, “where he relentlessly worked to strengthen bilateral relations on all levels.”

Abu Ghazaleh announces AROQA's 11th annual conference under patronage of Aboul Gheit
NNA -Mon 07 Oct 2019
Dr. Abu-Ghazaleh asserted that holding the Conference comes in line with AROQA's endeavor to promote high quality education in the Arab countries, enhance scientific research in quality and accreditation, introduce and discusse field studies, encourage the use of quality systems and apply accreditation standards. Moreover, the importance of AROQA's Annual Conference is attributed to the responsibility the Organization assumes for the future of education in the Arab countries. Throughout the past years, AROQA has been relentlessly working to increase awareness on quality assurance and accreditation standards at educational institutions as well as establish means of cooperation at the Arab and global levels to develop education quality and to discuss ways of encountering all obstacles and challenges in education so that joint cooperation among Arab accreditation entities can be expanded. The Conference will bring together a host of researchers and specialists to discuss various related topics, exchange expertise and submit recommendations for the purpose of boosting education. It is worth mentioning that the Arab Organization for Quality Assurance in Education (AROQA) is an international non-profit independent association established in Belgium in 2007. Its main objective is to promote the quality of higher education with a particular focus on the Arab world. It works under the League of the Arab States' umbrella. AROQA is chaired by Dr. Talal Abu-Ghazaleh, while its Honorary President is the Secretary-General of the Arab League.

Hassan meets UAE's Seif Ben Zayed in Abu Dhabi
NNA -Mon 07 Oct 2019
Interior and Municipalities Minister, Rayya El Hassan, on Monday met on the sidelines of the Lebanese-Emirati Investment Conference taking place in Abu Dhabi, with the UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior, Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The meeting took place in the presence of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) Chief Imad Othman, Lebanon's Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Fouad Dandan, and Head of Information Division Brigadier General Khaled Hammoud. In a televised statement, Minister El Hassan said "We have dispelled Emirati concerns regarding what they consider security loopholes at Beirut airport... and this will inevitably have a positive impact on the implementation of the lifting of the ban on UAE nationals traveling to Lebanon."

Jarrah meets with electronic press representatives, says Lebanon endures economic, financial crisis
NNA -Mon 07 Oct 2019
A meeting was held on Monday at the National Media Council for the electronic press in Lebanon, in the presence of Minister of Information, Jamal Al-Jarrah, and Chairman of the National Council for Audiovisual Media, Abdel Hadi Mahfouz. The meeting had been an occasion to discuss the performance of Lebanon’s electronic press on the basis of media freedom, and the need to observe professional ethical rules and steer clear from incitement and rumors, as well as slander and defamation. During the meeting, Mahfouz briefed attendees on the items of a protocol jointly devised by media websites in Lebanon, most important of which: 1- Avoidance to publish any material that provokes sectarian strife; 2- Not to publish any material that poses a threat to official institutions, especially military and security ones; 3- Forming an electronic press committee to coordinate with official institutions, especially those concerned with discussing the draft media law, which is being discussed at the House of Parliament; 4- Follow up the matter of privileges that can be obtained from some departments and official institutions; 5- Request of the National Media Council to provide workers in the electronic media sector with a special press card; 6- The necessity of taking the opinion of media websites committee regarding any new legislation involving these websites; 7- The establishment of a serious gathering of media websites to function in the form of a syndicate. “This protocol was developed by the media websites themselves, and therefore there was an agreement on some kind of self-censorship by these sites,” Mahfouz added. For his part, Minister Jarrah considered that freedom of information and expression was sacred and couldn’t be abandoned under any circumstances or event. “Freedom is safeguarded, and freedom of expression is sacred in democratic regimes that seek a better state. The media is a key lever in transformation because it alerts and illuminates a place with imbalance and error,” Jarrah said. He continued: "Today, in light of the global technological development and the proliferation of websites, we may one day reach further development in the electronic media at the technical, media and news levels so that we can only keep up with this development." He went on to stress that there was a continuous relationship between the media and the state, as well as a branching relationship with the economy, politics and society. “Therefore, this relationship must be organized and clarified so as to safeguard the interests of all.”“When I assumed my duties at the information ministry, I found that the ministry's relationship with electronic media was almost missing, hence we discussed with Mr. Mahfouz the best way to build a healthy relationship with the electronic press through dialogue,” the Minister added. He called for "a round table to discuss the best for Lebanon, the media, and the press,” expressing confidence that "no one in the media seeks to ruin the country and distort or harm its image and its presidents.”
“The country endures an economic and financial crisis, either we go in the direction of deepening the gap or we can take a real and positive approach,” he added in his word to the electronic press representatives.
“We do not have to delve into negativity, especially that we have vast media capabilities that responsibly deal with analysis, advice, perception, and providing solutions. These capabilities can shed light on important issues, and the authority should listen to responsible media, which in turn bears its responsibility to preserve the country,” Jarrah added.

NAYA l Women’s activist Nadyn Jouny dies in car accident
Zeina Nasser/Annahar/October 07/2019
BEIRUT: Women’s rights group ABAAD announced that communications staff and activist Nadyn Jouny, 29, died in a car accident Sunday morning in a Damour-area crash, noting in the heartfelt posting that "we pledge to honor Nadyn’s path and activist fight.”“She symbolized Lebanese mother’s fight against suppression and misogyny of all sorts," ABAAD said.
Everyone remembering the young social justice activist posted his/her memories about her on their various social media pages. Women rights association ABAAD, where Nadyn worked as a Communication Officer, shared the news in a Sunday afternoon posting, inviting Nadyn's friends and loved ones to a tribute gathering on Wednesday in ABAAD's garden in Furn El Chebbak. This correspondent notes Nadyn will always be remembered by those who protest for a better Lebanon, and her activism towards women's right to child custody. Her smile will keep shining in Beirut's streets.
NAYA| Woman of the Month: 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg. Nadyn's most recent social media posts showed her child Karam, whom she fought to see every Saturday. Nadyn fought against the laws forbidding women from seeing their children because of custody disputes.
"The warm heart is now cold," Nadyn's longtime friend Sarah Farhat wrote about a photo of them showing a joyful moment. Another dear friend to Nadyn, Mohamad Harake wrote: "When you said the photos were gone with the stolen phone, I told you its ok, your photos are engraved in my heart, even when it's broken your smile is a cure." "Nadyn left before our dream that we planned for years came true," Zeina Ibrahim, Nadyn's partner in the fight towards mother's right to child custody, wrote on her page. She added: "She left before winning the right to custody of her child Karam and before seeing him in his first day at school. Nadyn was unable to experience her motherhood and left heartbroken. "Nadyn's memory remains in all the inspiring actions she made throughout in Lebanon, this correspondent notes.

Israeli Force Tries to Nab Shepherd from Border Area
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/2019
An Israeli patrol on Monday attempted to kidnap a shepherd from the outskirts of a Lebanese border town, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said. NNA said the four-soldier patrol tried to nab the shepherd M.H. in the Saddanet al-Rous area in the outskirts of the Hasbaya district town of al-Hibbariyeh. “He managed to escape while no violation of the Blue Line was recorded,” the agency added.Such incidents have become a frequent occurrence in that border region.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 07- 08/2019
Pentagon Says It Doesn't Endorse Turkish Military Operation in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/2019
The Pentagon said Monday the United States does not endorse a threatened Turkish military invasion of northern Syria, and cautioned that such a move risked destabilizing the region. The warning came after President Donald Trump announced late on Sunday a pullback of U.S. troops from the Syria-Turkey border, seen as paving the way for the offensive. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley told their counterparts in Ankara that "unilateral action creates risks for Turkey," Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said in a statement. "The Department of Defense made clear to Turkey -- as did the president -- that we do not endorse a Turkish operation in Northern Syria," he added. Hoffman said the U.S., along with NATO allies and coalition partners, would reiterate to Ankara "the possible destabilizing consequences of potential actions to Turkey, the region, and beyond."Trump unexpectedly announced the pullback of US forces from key areas of northern Syria, a move widely attacked as abandoning battlefield allies the Kurds, who were crucial in helping to defeat the Islamic State jihadist group. It sparked concerns that the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces would be forced to abandon some 10,000 captured Islamic State fighters they have been holding, potentially allowing the group to reestablish itself. If Turkey does invade the area, Hoffmann said, it "would be responsible, along with European nations and others, for thousands of ISIS fighters who had been captured and defeated in the campaign (led) by the United States."

Trump on decision to withdraw troops: US was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Monday, 7 October 2019
US President Donald Trump on Monday defended his administration’s decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria, saying it was too costly to keep supporting US-allied Kurdish-led forces in the region fighting ISIS.
In a tweet, Trump said, “The United States was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days, that was many years ago. We stayed and got deeper and deeper into battle with no aim in sight. When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS Caliphate,.....”“The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting Turkey for decades,” Trump said in a series of tweets. “Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out,” he added. Trump said in another tweet, “It is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN.” The US announced on Monday that its armed forces will not be involved or support a planned Turkish operation in northern Syria. US forces “having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate’ will no longer be in the immediate area,” the press secretary said in a statement. US forces in northern Syria have started pulling back from areas along the border with Turkey, a Kurdish-led force and a war monitor said Monday. With Agencies.

US forces will not be involved in Turkish operations in northern Syria
Agencies/Monday, 7 October 2019
US armed forces will not be involved or support a planned Turkish operation in northern Syria, the White House press secretary said on Sunday after a phone call between President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. US forces “having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate’ will no longer be in the immediate area,” the press secretary said in a statement. US forces in northern Syria have started pulling back from areas along the border with Turkey, a Kurdish-led force and a war monitor said Monday. The US’s decision to withdraw its forces from Syria was “a stab in the back” and a surprise for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a SDF spokesman told al-Hadath. The Syrian Democratic Forces said in a statement that “US forces withdrew from the border areas with Turkey.”The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor confirmed that US forces had pulled back from key positions in Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad. The White House says Turkey will soon invade northern Syria, casting uncertainty on the fate of the Kurdish fighters allied with the US against in a campaign against ISIS. Kurdish fighters warned on Monday that a Turkish attack would bring back ISIS. The statement from the White House also said “Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years,” as France, Germany and other European nations that they had come from had refused US requests to take them back. Turkey is determined to clear its border with Syria of militants and assure the security of the country, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday, after the White House said Ankara will soon launch an offensive into northern Syria. Turkey is highly likely to wait until US soldiers have withdrawn from the area where Ankara plans to carry out a military operation in northern Syria before launching an offensive, a senior Turkish official also told Reuters on Monday. The Turkish presidency said after the call that Erdogan and Trump had agreed to meet in Washington next month, following an invitation by the US president. During the phone call, Erdogan expressed his frustration with the failure of US military and security officials to implement the agreement between the two countries, the Turkish presidency said. Erdogan also reiterated the necessity of the safe zone to eliminate the threats from the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, which Ankara considers a terrorist organisation, and to create the conditions necessary for the return of Syrian refugees, it said. Meanwhile, the UN said Monday that it was “preparing for the worst” in northeast Syria after the US said it would step aside to allow for Turkish military operations in the area.
“We don’t know what is going to happen... we are preparing for the worst,” the UN’s humanitarian coordinator for Syria, Panos Moumtzis, said in Geneva, stressing that there were “a lot of unanswered questions” about the consequences of the operation.The UN has drawn up a contingency plan in case residents from northeast Syria will be displaced, and will need access to provide food, medical supplies to those in acute need, a UN official told reporters.
Establishing a safe zone The NATO allies agreed in August to establish a zone in northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Ankara says the zone should be cleared of the YPG. Turkey says it wants to settle up to 2 million Syrian refugees in the zone. It currently hosts 3.6 million Syrians sheltering from Syria’s more than eight-year conflict. Turkey says the United States, which supports the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a YPG-led force that defeated ISIS fighters in Syria, is moving too slowly to set up the zone. It has repeatedly warned of launching an offensive on its own into northeast Syria, where US forces are stationed alongside the SDF. The two countries are also at odds over how far the zone should extend into Syria and who should control it. Turkey says it should be 30 km deep.The ties between the allies have also been pressured over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defense missiles and the trial of local US consulate employees in Turkey.

US Senator Graham calls for reversal of Syria border pullback
AFP, Washington/Monday, 7 October 2019
US Senator Lindsey Graham, a top ally of Donald Trump, said Monday he would be calling on Congress to reverse the president’s decision to withdraw US troops from Turkey’s border with Syria. Graham, chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee and one of Trump’s most outspoken supporters on Capitol Hill, described the move as “a disaster in the making” that would be “a stain on America’s honor for abandoning the Kurds.”The US pullback from key positions along Syria’s northern border, announced late Sunday, effectively abandons the Kurds, Washington’s main ally in the years-old battle against ISIS. “Also, if this plan goes forward will introduce Senate resolution opposing and asking for reversal of this decision. Expect it will receive strong bipartisan support,” Graham tweeted. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led militia that controls much of northeastern Syria, said early Monday in a statement that “US forces withdrew from the border areas with Turkey.” On Sunday, the White House said in a readout of a call between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Ankara would “soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria” - and that US forces would “no longer be in the immediate area.”Graham’s criticism came after Trump took to Twitter in defense of the withdrawal, saying the region would have to “figure the situation out” and that America needed to get out of “ridiculous Endless Wars.” “The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so,” he said. “They have been fighting Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for almost 3 years but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home.”

Iraq Military Admits 'Excessive Force' Used in Deadly Protests
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Iraq's military admitted on Monday that "excessive force" was used in a district of the capital overnight where a mass protest led to clashes that medics and security forces said left 13 people dead. "Excessive force outside the rules of engagement was used and we have begun to hold accountable those commanding officers who carried out these wrong acts," the military said in a statement. It was the first time since protests broke out on Tuesday that security forces acknowledged using disproportionate measures, while protesters had accused them of firing live rounds directly at them. Hundreds had gathered overnight in Sadr City, a densely populated district in eastern Baghdad where state security forces are rarely seen. On videos distributed on social media of the late-night rally, protesters ducked in streets littered with burning tires as heavy gunfire was heard. Security sources and medics said the clashes left 13 people dead overnight. In a statement distributed to journalists on Monday morning, the Iraqi military said Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi had ordered "all army units to withdraw from Sadr City to be replaced with federal police units." He called on all forces to abide by the "rules of engagement" in dealing with rallies, it added. This comes after a week of violence gripping Iraq has left more than 100 dead and thousands wounded. In his only address to the protesters last week, Abdel Mahdi had insisted security forces were acting "within international standards" in dealing with demonstrations.
Monday's order for the withdrawal of the army from Sadr City appears aimed at calming tensions in the neighborhood, where a populist Shiite cleric enjoys wide support. The unrest is the most serious challenge facing Iraq, two years after the victory against ISIS militants. Iraq's national security adviser vowed to fight attempts to "bring down the Iraqi state." Falih al-Fayadh said an ongoing investigation will prove who was behind the violence in Baghdad and predominantly Shiite southern provinces.

Khamenei’s Representative in IRGC: US Seeking to Destroy PMF
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative in the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Abdullah Haji Sadeghi has described recent developments in Iraq as a “real war” with the United States. Sadeghi said Sunday that Washington was seeking to eliminate Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). During a ceremony held by the IRGC in the city of Qom, he called on drafting plans to “foil the plots of the enemies” in Iraq. His comments came following Iranian calls to invade the US embassy in Baghdad. “There is a real war with America in Iraq. They want to prevent the Iraqi people from being similar to the Iranian revolutionists and to stop the PMF from defending its country,” Sadeghi said. Last week, during a meeting with IRGC commanders, Khamenei demanded the expansion of the Guards' international operations. “We must not be content with our region alone and (we shouldn’t) choose to stay behind our walls and ignore the threats behind the borders,” he said. Unlike Sadeghi, Mahmoud Sadeqi, an outspoken lawmaker in Iran, warned on Sunday against considering the Iraqi events as a conspiracy theory. Such analysis “would stop us from understanding the truth,” he wrote on his Twitter account. He added that corruption and the incompetence of Iraqi officials have led to a popular dismay. This situation constituted the backbone of the ongoing protests and demonstrations in Iraq. For his part, Secretary of the Expediency Council and former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaee wrote a tweet in which he accused the US and Saudi Arabia of standing behind the Iraqi protests.

Anguish for Jailed UK-Iranian Mother at Sending Daughter to Britain
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 October, 2019
The husband of a British-Iranian mother jailed in Tehran since 2016 said on Saturday the couple's decision to send their five-year-old daughter to him in Britain to start school was "bittersweet". Richard Ratcliffe, whose wife Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is serving a five-year term for sedition, told AFP he is looking forward to seeing daughter Gabriella for the first time in more than three years. But she has been staying with relatives in Iran since her mother's detention and visiting her in jail each week, so he fears the impact of the change. "It will be bittersweet," Ratcliffe said, adding they hoped Gabriella will be back in London by Christmas. "It will be lovely to have her back... and then also we will be weary of the fallout for Nazanin," Ratcliffe added, noting Gabriella had been "her lifeline and that lifeline will have been taken away."Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 40, stated in an open letter released earlier this week that Gabriella, who only speaks a few words of English, would return to Britain "in the near future". "My baby will leave me to go to her father and start school in the UK," she wrote. "It will be a daunting trip for her travelling, and for me left behind. "And the authorities who hold me will watch on, unmoved at the injustice of separation," Zaghari-Ratcliffe added, describing being apart from her daughter as the "deepest torture of them all."Zaghari-Ratcliffe was arrested in April 2016 as she was leaving Iran after taking their then 22-month-old daughter to visit her family. She was sentenced to five years for allegedly trying to topple the Iranian government. A project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the media group's philanthropic arm, she denies all charges. The case has unfolded amid escalating tensions between Tehran and the West, particularly with the United States and Britain. Her detention in Iran has included a week-long transfer to a mental health ward of a public hospital earlier this year.Husband Ratcliffe said they had applied for an exit visa for Gabriella but were unsure how long it would take. "I would be very surprised if it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a bit of time," he added. In her open letter, addressed to "the mothers of Iran", Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she had little hope of being released imminently. "My hope for freedom from my own country died in my heart years back," she stated. "I have no hope or motivation after my baby goes. There is no measure to my pain." In response to the letter, rights group Amnesty UK called on Tehran to free the mother. "It's time for Iran to end this cruel punishment," it said.

Iran Confirms Arrest of Russian Journalist
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Iran has confirmed the arrest last week in Tehran of a Russian journalist, saying the case was a matter of a visa violation. Government spokesman Ali Rabiei told reporters that Yulia Yuzik's case is under "quick review" by authorities and wasn't related to matters concerning the "counter-espionage" department. The Russian Embassy in Tehran said on Friday that Yuzik flew into Tehran the previous Sunday and that Iranian officials seized her passport at the airport for unknown reasons. She was arrested from her hotel room on Wednesday. The Russian foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to Moscow to explain Yuzik's arrest. Yuzik, who has worked for several prominent Russian publications and has reported from Iran, posted photographs from her trip on Instagram last week, saying she loved being in Iran.

Urgent Israeli Meeting to Discuss New Iranian Threats
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Israel's Security Cabinet convened Sunday to discuss alleged growing security threats, amid concerns that the authorities are attempting to keep the public busy with the dangers posed by Iran to turn their attention from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to form a new government. Although discussions remained confidential, there have been leaks that Netanyahu confirmed during the meeting the “rising threat of an attack orchestrated by Iran.”Informed political and security sources believe that recent developments in Baghdad reveal Iran's determination to turn Iraq into a base for its domination of the Arab world on one hand, and attacking Israel on the other. A source at the National Security Council indicated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is suffering due to recent blows, especially after the assassination attempt of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, and intends to carry out reprisals against Israel. An opposition lawmaker wondered why the cabinet didn’t convene last week when the Israeli PM was tasked with the government formation, especially that the Iranian threat is not new. The lawmaker believes Netanyahu is testing the public’s response and trying another unrealistic stunt claiming an Iranian imminent threat to pressure Kahol Lavan leader, Benny Gantz, into forming a coalition government. Netanyahu has the support of his opponent Yisrael Beytenu chief, Avigdor Liberman, in forming such a government, citing a “national emergency, economic challenges and security threats from the south, north and further away.” Columnist for al-Monitor Ben Caspit, known for his criticism of Netanyahu, wrote Sunday that there are Iranian dangers threatening Israel.
In his article, Caspit explained that reports indicate Israel is preparing for the scenario that the “campaign between wars” against Iran and its subsidiaries, could develop into an all-out war along the entire front, covering a large part of the Middle East. He believes this compelled Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and Netanyahu to hint at the necessity to increase the defense budget, and that this must be done as soon as possible. “It has been over a decade since Netanyahu first turned the Iranian threat into political leverage. Nevertheless, just as in “The Boy Who Cried Wolf,” it is possible that this time the threats are real,” he wrote. Israel’s top security leadership seems to be concerned that a rapid deterioration of the situation on the Iranian front is a distinct possibility. Iran announced Soleimani’s assassination attempt and this could lead to an open warfare. This would make sense if Israel really was planning to eliminate Soleimani, however, if the plot to kill him was a fiction, the two sides will then be facing off with “just a hair’s breadth separating them from all-out war.”Caspit spoke with a number of security generals and according to all signs, Iran decided to respond forcefully to the many aerial attacks attributed to Israel against pro-Iranian militias and other targets in Syria and Iraq. “Iran has a growing score to settle with Israel after suffering dozens of strikes in the region. Are the Iranians preparing a surprise for Israel this October?” wondered Caspit. Head of the research division of Israel’s Military Intelligence, Brig. Gen. Dror Shalom told Israel Hayom that an Iranian attack could be launched from Iraqi territory, where the Iranians have the infrastructure for rockets and missiles capable of hitting Israel. One senior Israeli security official said the Iranian response this time will not be a weak reaction like the random fire of retaliatory rockets, that usually fall on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. “Recently, the Iranians have already proven that they are capable of causing great pain, and that they are able to penetrate air defenses to cause considerable damage,” added Shalom.

Netanyahu's Pre-Indictment Hearing Wrapped Up
Jerusalem- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Israel's state prosecutors and Benjamin Netanyahu's lawyers are wrapping up the pre-indictment hearing over a slew of corruption allegations against the prime minister. Netanyahu's lawyers arrived at the Justice Ministry in Jerusalem on Monday for the fourth and final day of the proceedings. They're meeting with Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit and his team to appeal the cases against Netanyahu be dropped. Mandelblit has recommended that Netanyahu be indicted for fraud, breach of trust, and bribery in three separate cases that have dogged the long-serving premier. The hearing is the final step before the attorney general decides whether to issue a formal indictment. The legal woes come as Netanyahu is fighting for political survival, with the country's unprecedented second election of the year failing to provide him with a clear victory.

Jordan Complains against Israeli Detention of Two Nationals
Amman - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
Jordan’s Foreign Ministry delivered Sunday an official complaint to Israel’s acting ambassador in Amman over Israel’s detention of two Jordanian citizens, Abdulrahman Meri and Hiba Abdulbaqi. The Ministry issued a statement saying it summoned the Israeli envoy and handed him a note protesting the detention, demanding their immediate release. Spokesman, Sufian Qudah, said said the Ministry is trying through all the diplomatic, political and legal means available to ensure a speedy release of the two nationals. They were arrested by Israeli authorities after crossing the King Hussein Bridge between the two countries. He added that the ambassador was urged to guarantee the protection of the Jordanians' legal rights. Qudah pointed out that the Ministry and the Embassy in Tel Aviv are following up on the case on a daily basis, and embassy officials will visit Abdulbaqi and Meri in detention once the procedures are completed. He also explained that the Ministry was arranging a visit to Abdulbaqi’s mother and brother at their request, and that the Embassy in Tel Aviv was in daily contact with their lawyers and the Israeli authorities to follow up on legal procedures and ensure that their rights are protected.

Turkish Ship to Begin Drilling for Oil off Cyprus on Monday or Tuesday
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 October, 2019
The Turkish drillship Yavuz will begin drilling for oil and gas southwest of Cyprus on Monday or Tuesday, Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said, in a move which has intensified tensions between the two countries. "All preparations have been completed, and it (Yavuz) will start its first drilling in the area either today or tomorrow," he told an energy conference on Monday. Ankara said on Thursday it had sent the ship to the area where Greek Cypriot authorities have already awarded hydrocarbon exploration rights to Italian and French companies. Cyprus has accused Turkey of a "severe escalation" of violations of its sovereign rights. Turkey has already drilled wells in waters to the east and west of the island, triggering strong protests from Nicosia and the European Union in recent months, including EU sanctions. Turkey and Greece are allies in NATO but have long been at loggerheads over Cyprus, which has been ethnically split between Greek and Turkish Cypriots since 1974. The internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government represents Cyprus in the European Union, while a breakaway Turkish Cypriot state in the north is only recognized by Ankara. Ankara says some of the areas where Cyprus is exploring are either on its own continental shelf or in zones where Turkish Cypriots have equal rights over any finds with Greek Cypriots. The latest development is the first time the two sides have targeted the same area. The United States has warned Turkey not to engage in "illegal" drilling activity in the area. “We’ve made clear that operations in international waters are governed by a set of rules. We’ve told the Turks that illegal drilling is unacceptable and we’ll continue to take diplomatic actions to ... ensure that lawful activity takes place,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a visit to Greece on Saturday.
On Monday, Yavuz was located about 50 nautical miles (90 km) southwest of Cyprus, Refinitiv Eikon shipping data showed.

Bahrain’s Crown Prince Hails Continuous Support of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait
Manama - Obaid al-SuheimyAsharq Al Awsat/October 07/2019
Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, expressed his appreciation to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait for their continuous support to his country.
Speaking at the Bahrain Government Forum 2019, the Crown Prince noted that the initial results of the Fiscal Balance Program, were positive and Bahrain aims to achieve a fiscal balance by 2022. He announced that during H1 of 2019, the deficit fell 38 percent, non-oil revenues increased 47 percent, oil revenues increased 10 percent and expenditure reduced by 14 percent compared with the same period in 2018. Between 2008 and 2018, non-oil growth saw a 50 percent growth rate, according to the Crown Prince. He highlighted the progress of the National Employment Program, which is designed to make citizens the first choice of employment. The program has employed 5,918 Bahrainis and helped those working in the private sector increase their income by 4.3 percent. The Crown Prince highlighted Manama’s efforts in accelerating development through a citizen-centered approach that is participatory and sustainable.
Over the past few years, the number of government institutions committed to the agreed upon service-level reached 100 percent in three entities, which increased to 16 that were honored at the Forum. “Looking back at previous accomplishments should renew our drive towards the next phase of development, which requires enhanced confidence and renewed resolve,” the Crown Prince concluded.

Egypt: Parliament Steps Up its Rhetoric against Ethiopia over GERD
Cairo – Mohammed Abdo Hasanen/Asharq Al Awsat/October 07/2019
Egypt has stepped up its rhetoric against Ethiopia after negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reached a deadlock. Addis Ababa is building the dam on the Blue Nile, which Cairo says threatens its share of water. The Egyptian ministry of water resources and irrigation said that talks with Sudan and Ethiopia on the operation of the hydropower dam have reached a stalemate as a result of “inflexibility” by Addis Ababa, and called for international mediation. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi stressed on Saturday that Egypt is committed to preserving the country’s water share of the Nile river. “We will continue to take all necessary political procedures in the framework of international law to guarantee this right,” said Sisi. In 2011, Addis Ababa announced the construction of the $4 billion dam to be the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s bid to become Africa’s biggest power exporter, generating more than 6,000 megawatts. Egypt fears that the dam will damage its limited share of the Nile water, about 55.5 billion cubic meters, which the country needs for more than 90 percent for its supply of drinking water, irrigation for agriculture and industry. Egypt’s parliamentary African Affairs Committee said it intends to launch major diplomatic moves, starting with summoning Ethiopia’s ambassador to the parliament to inform him about Egypt's concerns. Committee Chairman MP Tareq Radwan said they also intend to file complaints with regional and international human rights organizations and send a series of communiques to parliaments around the world over Ethiopia’s violations of international law. The committee regretted the deadlock, saying the Ethiopian stance contradicts the fifth article of the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed on March 23, 2015. It also violates international legislation regarding constructing and managing dams over common rivers. For eight years, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have been engaged in tripartite talks to reach a final agreement on the rules of filling and operating GERD, without reaching any result. Egypt said it hoped the US would mediate especially after the White House announced that it “supports... ongoing negotiations to reach a cooperative, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on filling and operating” the dam. Egyptian Presidential Spokesman Bassam Rady said his country welcomes the White House statement, pointing that the failure of the negotiations to reach tangible progress reflects the need for an effective international role to bring the views of the three countries closer. The spokesman stressed the importance of reaching a fair and balanced agreement in a manner that allows all three states to benefit from their water resources without harming the interests and rights of other parties.
However, Cairo’s decision to internationalize the crisis remains a “very complicated” task, according to political expert Malik Awni, who explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that Egypt could be forced to make major concessions.He also ruled out the option of international arbitration, which requires the consent of concerned parties, including Ethiopia.

Blast targeting bus kills 10, injures 27 in Afghanistan’s Jalalabad
The Associated Press, Kabul/Monday, 7 October 2019
An Afghan official says a bomb blast in eastern Nangarhar province has killed at least 10 people, including a child. Ataullah Khogyani, the governor’s spokesman, said 27 other people were wounded in the attack targeting a minibus carrying new army recruits in Jalalabad city. The bomb was placed in a rickshaw and detonated when the army bus arrived. No one claimed the attack, but both Taliban and ISIS are active in eastern Afghanistan, and especially the Nangarhar province.

Britain’s Johnson asks France’s Macron to ‘push forward’ on Brexit
Reuters, London/Monday, 7 October 2019
Britain’s Boris Johnson urged French President Emanuel Macron on Sunday to “push forward” to secure a Brexit deal and told him the EU should not be lured into the mistaken belief that the UK would stay in the EU after Oct.31, the prime minister’s office said. Johnson discussed his Brexit proposal, which has been widely rebuffed in Brussels, with Macron and Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa on Sunday. “This is the chance to get a deal done: a deal that is backed by parliamentarians and a deal which involves compromise on all sides,” a senior Number 10 source said on Sunday. “The UK has made a big, important offer but it’s time for the Commission to show a willingness to compromise too. If not the UK will leave with no deal.”With the Oct. 31 deadline approaching, Johnson has consistently said he will not ask for another delay to Brexit, but also that he will not break a law that forces him to request one if no withdrawal deal has been agreed by Oct. 19. He has not explained the apparent contradiction in his comments.

British PM Johnson Warns EU He Will Not Delay Brexit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/2019
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the European Union on Sunday he will not delay Brexit beyond October 31, underlining that his latest proposals are a last chance to reach a deal. Johnson told French President Emmanuel Macron in a telephone call on Sunday that "the EU should not be lured into the mistaken belief that the UK will stay in the EU after October 31st", a Downing Street spokesman quoted him as saying. The UK premier said he would not request another delay, despite British MPs passing a law last month that requires him to seek another Brexit delay if he fails to secure an agreement by the end of a make-or-break EU summit on October 17-18. This law was "undermining negotiations, but if EU leaders are betting that it will prevent no deal, that would be a historic misunderstanding", a senior Downing Street source said. "The UK has made a big, important offer but it’s time for the (European) Commission to show a willingness to compromise too. If not the UK will leave with no deal," the source added. European leaders have reacted tepidly to London's latest propositions. Britain has urged the EU to intensify talks over the proposals, as European leaders warned it must revise its plans within days in order to conclude a deal this month.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said the bloc needed to show "creativity and flexibility" ahead of October 31 -- when Johnson has vowed to end the country's 46 years of EU membership with or without an agreement. With the EU asking for reworked proposals within days, an Elysee Palace spokesperson said Macron agreed in his call with Johnson that talks between EU top negotiator Michel Barnier's team and British officials should continue in the coming days "to assess if an agreement is possible" by the end of the week. Barclay reiterated that the ideas Johnson has formally submitted to Brussels were "a broad landing zone" and "intense negotiations" were now necessary. "We've set out very serious proposals including compromise on our side," he told the BBC. "We do need to get into the intensive negotiations on the text to clarify what the deal is." Barclay added the government was considering holding a parliamentary vote ahead of the EU summit to show Brussels the plans have MPs' support. European leaders had reportedly balked at Britain's request to keep initial discussions on the proposals going through the weekend, and they will resume on Monday, with time running out ahead of the EU summit.
'No more dither'
Johnson began phoning European leaders at the weekend to sell his proposals, speaking to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Saturday. Rutte tweeted he had told Johnson "important questions remain about the British proposals" and "there is a lot of work to be done ahead" of the summit. Barnier told an event in France Saturday that while an agreement was still possible it "will be very difficult to reach". The British leader is hoping the threat of a messy no-deal departure in less than three weeks could force the EU to compromise. Barclay said Sunday that the government would comply with the legislation requiring Johnson to seek another delay if no deal is reached.But in identical articles for two Brexit-backing British tabloids, Johnson insisted the country will leave the bloc later this month.
'Ready to work'
The British proposals submitted to Brussels Wednesday centre on how to manage the post-Brexit border between British province Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. Johnson wants Northern Ireland's devolved assembly -- which has been suspended for almost three years -- to vote every four years on whether to maintain EU rather than British regulations there. He has also proposed the province leaves the EU's customs union along with the rest of the UK, with required checks to rely on untried technology and carried out away from the sensitive border. Brussels has said the plans "do not provide a basis for concluding an agreement". It sees the potential for rampant smuggling while Ireland is concerned hardline Northern Irish unionists would have an effective veto. Barclay, who travelled to Amsterdam Sunday for Brexit talks, suggested Britain could be willing to consider alternative ways of meeting its aims. "We're ready to work on that," he said. Ireland's leader Leo Varadkar said Saturday there is "plenty of time" to put forward alternatives and he was trying to arrange a meeting with Johnson next week, Irish broadcaster RTE reported.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 07- 08/2019
Iran is smuggling artillery precision parts to Hizballah by Syrian IL-76s through a Syrian air base
موقع دبيكا: تحت عنوان عملية “لبيكا واحد” إيران تهرب لحزب الله عن طريق الجو وعبر قاعدة جوية في سوريا التقنية اللازمة لتطوير دقة التحكم بمسار صواريخه
DEBKAfile/October 07/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79261/%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d8%af%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d8%ad%d8%aa-%d8%b9%d9%86%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b9%d9%85%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%af/
A Syrian IL-76 transport plane from Tehran stood on the tarmac of the Syria T-4 air base on Thursday, Oct. 3. No one approached it until night fell, when it took off for Beirut. There, it was unloaded at top speed by a trained team onto a line of trucks.
That plane was one of three or four Syrian Air Force IL-76s making the Tehran-Beirut run in recent days through T-4, the big Syrian Tyas Military Airbase which is also used by the Russian air force and Iran’s Al Qods Brigades air arm.
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources can report exclusively that they are running a secret operation codenamed Labeik-1 for smuggling into Lebanon special Iranian equipment for converting Hizballah’s long-range artillery into weapons with the navigational capability and precision of ballistic missiles, like the capacities already added to Hizballah’s Fatteh-1110 and Zelzal-5 rockets.
When Labeik-1 is finished, Hizballah’s long-range artillery, the Naze’at 10-H and Naze’at 6-H, which have ranges of 100-150km, will be able to pinpoint multiple targets at any populated area and strategic sites in northern and central Israel up and including the towns of Zichron Yaakov and Hadera.
Tehran’s appetite for aggression against Israel was not put off by the two major operations the IDF conducted at the end of August for thwarting an Iranian offensive that was then imminent. First, Israeli air strikes knocked out a fleet of Mohajer killer drones standing ready for takeoff at the secret Akraba site south of Damascus. The next day, an IDF drone killed Al Qods Brigades chief Qassem Soleimani’s senior operations liaison officer with Hizballah on Mouawad Street in the Dahya district of Beirut.
Undeterred, Iran’s war planners are going ahead with their plans to upgrade Hizballah’s arsenal. But for Operation Labeik-1, Soleimani is taking the precaution of filtering the air-freighted equipment for Hizballah through the T-4 air base. He trusts it will be safe from Israeli air strikes in the light of Israel’s commitment to abstain from harming Assad regime facilities as part of its understandings with Moscow. He is therefore counting on any attacks ventured by Israel risking interception by the S-300 and S-400 air defense batteries stationed at the Russian Khmeimim air base in Latakia.

Have the Iraqis Missed the Opportunity?
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 07/2019
It is not easy to dismiss the images coming from Iraq. They are painful and difficult to watch. Most difficult of all is that it is no longer possible to blame them on the Saddam Hussein regime, which was toppled 16 years ago. It is also hard to believe that the youths who took to the streets of Baghdad, al-Najaf and al-Nasiriyah did so at the orders of the “Great Satan” or another regional power.
One must remember that the Iraqis held elections four times after the current constitution was approved, meaning that the legitimacy of the current government is not up for debate. It is a product of elections, even if its labor pains left it with a few scars.
It would be hasty to sum up the bloody protests with a question about the fate of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and his government. The problem is deeper than that. Of course, one must note that Abdul Mahdi is an old player in Iraq, starting from the days of the opposition against the Saddam regime and leading to the post-Baath period. It would be wrong to compare Iraq to the system in Lebanon, which is governed by a president, prime minister and parliament speaker. According to the Iraqi constitution, the prime minister is the greatest player.
There is no doubt that Abdul Mahdi, who experienced the Baathist, Marxist and Khomeini ideologies, as well as exile in Paris, knows the weaknesses and concerns of Iraq. He is also aware of its flaws and the forces that are trying to creep into it. He must be assessing the causes of the protests.
It is obvious that the youths who flooded the streets were born in the post-Saddam era or a few years before the regime’s collapse. We can therefore rule out accusing them of supporting Saddam or the Baath. Moreover, the youths came from Shiite strongholds, which in successive elections voted for major Shiite parties and coalitions. Abdul Mahdi also knows that the United States’ influence in Iraq has weakened considerably and no longer counterbalances or curbs Iran’s influence. Furthermore, protests did not erupt in Sunni strongholds. These regions are still recovering from living under ISIS. This means that Salafists or ISIS remnants cannot be blamed for the protests.
Abdul Mahdi is aware that the protests are essentially popular anger that boiled over due to poor living conditions. The demonstrations gained intensity after authorities tried to stifle them with force. The protesters are demanding improved electricity and water supplies. They are calling for fighting corruption and addressing unemployment and poverty. The youths would not have confronted live fire with their bare chests if they had not reached a sense of despair over successive broken government promises.
Another issue that must have caught Abdul Mahdi’s eye is the emergence of anti-Iran slogans during the rallies. Many protesters have called for Iran to lift its hands off Iraq. The prime minister knows that these slogans would not have been chanted in Shiite strongholds, which are traditionally pro-Iran, had they not sensed that Iraq was being controlled by Tehran. Some Iraqi observers boast about Iran seeping into decision-making positions in the current Iraqi regime and into the country’s political, economic and social fabric. They cite Iraq being used as an open ground to send worrying messages to the US or to circumvent sanctions.
Will the Iraqi political class derive lessons from the protests? Will the usual remedies, such as pledges to help poor families and allow voluntary military enlistment, appease the demonstrators? Will other usual remedies, such as seizing the opportunity to replace officials – meaning Abdul Mahdi – work?
The problem is greater than this. The battle revolves around regaining the regular Iraqi citizen’s trust, especially since the youth sense that they are only being promised poverty and marginalization in a country that lies on exceptional wealth. It cannot be easy for the Iraqi youth to read about the disappearance or squandering of billions of dollars in public funds. One such incident brought the issue out in the open. It revolved around “fake” soldiers in Mosul who stayed at home and shared their salaries with their superior officers, who covered up their long absence from their units. This massive flaw allowed ISIS to infiltrate Mosul and kick off a bloody chapter in Iraq’s recent history.
The recent developments reminded me of what Iraqi politician Ahmed al-Jalabi told me after American forces withdrew from his country. He told me: “You are a journalist. If you are looking for an important and interesting subject, then you should task a team to investigate the fate of billions of dollars that disappeared without a trace. The looting in Iraq undoubtedly surpasses the looting that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.” He added: “I have read a lot about how the Americans planned to invade Iraq to loot its resources. The truth is that we exerted massive efforts to lure the Americans into ousting Saddam Hussein, because as an opposition, we had failed. We feared that Iraq would spend more decades under his rule or under the rule of his children. The Americans have now left, but I fear that the Iraqi may miss the opportunity to build a stable and prosperous Iraqi state.”
I asked him about the reasons for his fear, he replied: “I believe that the concept of the state in its true meaning is not deep-rooted, not in our society or among the main political powers. Elections are not enough when the concept of institutions is absent. The majority of the powers speak about an economy without knowing how the world and the economy have changed. A heated race is on to reap personal gain. The economy cannot be managed with a factional or militia mentality. I fear that the Iraqis may miss the opportunity and that their country would remain victim to long-term instability that the region would also pay dearly for.”
The interest of the Iraqi people lies in the formation of a democratic, stable and prosperous Iraq. The Arabs also have an interest in seeing the establishment of such an Iraq. However, a calm reading of the post-Saddam era developments raises concerns and an important question: Have the Iraqis missed the opportunity?

US Throws Kurdish Allies Under the Bus; Turkey "Opens the Floodgates" to Europe
سيزين شاهين/معهد كايتستون: أميركا تتخلى عن الأكراد وتفتح أبواب اوروبا لإغراقها باللاجئين
Sezen Şahin/Gatestone Institute/October 07/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79256/%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b2%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d9%87%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d8%aa%d8%ae%d9%84/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14953/turkey-migrants-europe
Turkey's Erdoğan government will be invading northern Syria to slaughter the Kurds, America's loyal allies against ISIS; release captured ISIS fighters, and doubtless seek to stay permanently in control of the area. The horror is that it will be doing all this with the tacit blessing of the US.
"I am saying this today: We have not got the required support from the world -- particularly from the EU -- to share the burden of the refugees we have been hosting, so we might have to [open the gates] to get the support." — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Takvim, September 5, 2019
"If we open the floodgates, no European government will be able to survive for more than six months. We advise them not to try our patience." — Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, Anadolu Agency, July 21, 2019.
Erdogan's threats are not new... and his claims are flawed.... Ankara has not lived up to its commitments.
"The most important question is why the refugee camps are not open to civil monitoring. Entry to refugee camps is not allowed. The camps are not transparent. There are many allegations as to what is happening in them. We are therefore worried about what they are hiding from us." — Cansu Turan, a social worker with the Human Rights Foundation of Turkey (TIHV), to Gatestone Institute, August 2016.
"Turkish authorities are detaining and coercing Syrians into signing forms saying they want to return to Syria and then forcibly returning them there." — Human Rights Watch, July 2019.
According to a recent Reuters report: "Over a dozen migrant boats landed on Greece's Lesbos island within minutes of each other on Thursday [August 29] in the first such mass arrival from neighboring Turkey in three years. Pictured: A group of migrants arrives from Turkey on the island of Lesbos, Greece on October 21, 2015.
In a betrayal of staggering magnitude, the White House announced yesterday that the United States has effectively given Turkey a green light to massacre America's Kurdish allies in northern Syria who fought against ISIS on America's behalf.
US President Trump apparently assured Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a phone call on Sunday October 6th that if Turkey invaded the Kurds' homeland in northern Syria and rescued ISIS fighters captured by the Kurds, US troops would not intervene. According to White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, US troops "will not support or be involved in the operation."
Turkey's Erdoğan government will be invading northern Syria to slaughter the Kurds, America's loyal allies against ISIS; release captured ISIS fighters, and doubtless seek to stay permanently in control of the area. The horror is that it will be doing all this with the tacit blessing of the US.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also seems to have begun making good on his recent threats to flood Europe with Syrian refugees unless, as part of U.S. negotiations with Ankara, a 20-mile "safe zone" is established in northern Syria for them.
From Sept 23-39 alone, approximately 3,710 migrants arrived from Turkey into Greece – apparently the highest number of arrivals for the period since the EU-Turkey refugee deal of 2016.
For the year so far, 46,546 refugees have entered Europe "from Turkish soil, thereby marking a "23 percent increase for the same period last year, regarding the same period last year, Deutsche Welle said on Sunday, citing a European Union report."
According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry -- in a move that would force the American-backed Kurdish armed groups in Syria, whom the Erdoğan government recently threatened to attack, to evacuate the area --
the Erdoğan government is seeking control over the zone in northern Syria, as well.
Addressing his ruling Justice and Development Party on September 5, Erdogan said, in part: "We have been hosting about 3,650,000 Syrian refugees for the last eight years... [The West] sometimes thanks us [but]... gives us no support. Our expenses have reached $40 billion. The EU has given only $3 billion, but it is not sent to our budget. It goes to AFAD [Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency] and Kızılay [the Turkish Red Crescent] through international organizations... [Europe] has not kept its promises. But we will continue taking that step [to establish a safe zone], whether it supports us or not.
"The number of Syrians that have returned to the areas that we have made safe is now 350,000. But we do not find this sufficient. We want to create such a safe zone... and we have talked about it with Trump and Putin – as well as with Merkel and with Britain -- and asked them to build houses there with us and transfer people to those houses. If we do that, Turkey will relax.
"We have container cities and tent cities [for refugees]. But there is no humane living there. On the one hand, [the West] talks about humane living; on the other hand, they call our offer of a safe zone 'beautiful'... [But when we say], 'Let's start,' they say 'no.'...
"If they do not do [what we are demanding], we will have to open the gates... We have tolerated [housing so many refugees] to a certain extent. Are we the only ones to carry that burden?...
"I am saying this today: We have not got the required support from the world -- particularly from the EU -- to share the burden of the refugees we have been hosting, so we might have to [open the gates] to get the support."
Erdogan's threats are not new, however, and his claims are flawed. In the years since the European Council and Turkey developed a joint "Legislative Train Schedule Towards a New Policy on Migration," Ankara has not lived up to its commitments.
According to the "EU-Turkey Statement & Action Plan:"
"On 18 March 2016, the European Council and Turkey reached an agreement aimed at stopping the flow of irregular migration via Turkey to Europe. According to the EU-Turkey Statement, all new irregular migrants and asylum seekers arriving from Turkey to the Greek islands and whose applications for asylum have been declared inadmissible should be returned to Turkey.
"The agreement followed a series of meetings with Turkey since November 2015 dedicated to deepening Turkey-EU relations as well as to strengthening their cooperation on the migration crisis, with notably the EU-Turkey Joint Action Plan activated on 29 November 2015 and the 7 March 2016 EU-Turkey statement. In addition, on 15 December 2015, the Commission proposed a voluntary humanitarian admission scheme for Syrian Refugees in Turkey.
"In order to break the business model of the smugglers and to offer migrants an alternative to putting their lives at risk, the EU and Turkey decided in March 2016 to work together to end the irregular migration from Turkey to the EU..."
The EU and Turkey agreed -- among other things -- that:
"All new irregular migrants crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands as of 20 March 2016 will be returned to Turkey; for every Syrian being returned to Turkey from the Greek islands, another Syrian will be resettled to the EU; Turkey will take any necessary measures to prevent new sea or land routes for irregular migration opening from Turkey to the EU... The EU will, in close cooperation with Turkey, further speed up the disbursement of the initially allocated €3 billion under the Facility for Refugees in Turkey. Once these resources are about to be used in full, the EU will mobilise additional funding for the Facility up to an additional €3 billion by the end of 2018..."
Neither the projects that the EU has funded -- nor the billions of dollars that the Erdogan government claims to have allocated to the Syrian refugees it is housing -- seem to have helped a good portion of the Syrian refugees live better lives in Turkey. As Gatestone documented in 2016, many Syrian women and girls in Turkey have been victims of forced marriages, polygamy, sexual harassment, rape, trafficking, prostitution and other crimes. Yet, Turkish media outlets have not reported on cases in which the perpetrators have been brought to justice.
Cansu Turan, a social worker with the Human Rights Foundation of Turkey (TIHV), told Gatestone in August 2016:
"The most important question is why the refugee camps are not open to civil monitoring. Entry to refugee camps is not allowed. The camps are not transparent. There are many allegations as to what is happening in them. We are therefore worried about what they are hiding from us."
Three years later, many Syrians in Turkey are still being victimized. According to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report from July this year:
"Turkish authorities are detaining and coercing Syrians into signing forms saying they want to return to Syria and then forcibly returning them there."
The report continues: "On July 24, 2019, [Turkish] Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu denied that Turkey had 'deported' Syrians but said that Syrians 'who voluntarily want to go back to Syria' can benefit from procedures allowing them to return to 'safe areas.'
"Almost 10 days after the first reports of increased police spot-checks of Syrians' registration documents in Istanbul and forced returns of Syrians from the city, the office of the provincial governor released a July 22 statement saying that Syrians registered in one of the country's other provinces must return there by August 20, and that the Interior Ministry would send unregistered Syrians to provinces other than Istanbul for registration. The statement comes amid rising xenophobic sentiment across the political spectrum against Syrian and other refugees in Turkey..." This hardly describes the "humane living" that Erdogan claims to seek for the Syrian refugees. Moreover, this is not the first time that Ankara has threatened Europe with a migrant influx. In a speech in Istanbul in 2016, Erdogan said:
"You [Europe] cried out when 50,000 refugees were at the Kapikule border. You started asking what you would do if Turkey would open the gates. Look at me -- if you go further, those border gates will be open. You should know that."
More recently, on July 21, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu made a similar statement. "We are facing the biggest wave of migration in history," he said. "If we open the floodgates, no European government will be able to survive for more than six months. We advise them not to try our patience."
Erdogan's government has already started making good on its threats. According to a recent Reuters report:
"Over a dozen migrant boats landed on Greece's Lesbos island within minutes of each other on Thursday [August 29] in the first such mass arrival from neighboring Turkey in three years, officials said, prompting Greece to summon Turkey's ambassador.
"'It surprised us. We haven't seen this type of simultaneous arrivals in this number since 2016,' said Boris Cheshirkov, spokesman for UNHCR [the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees] in Greece."
In other words, Turkey has already started "opening the floodgates" to Europe.
This is only part of a larger problem, however, further complicated by the exact number of genuine Syrian and other refugees in Turkey not being clear. This transpired because, nearly two years ago, the UN body responsible for refugees transferred the handling of refugee registration and status to Turkey's Directorate General of Migration Management.
Erdogan claims that his main motivation of forming a "safe zone" in northern Syria is "humanitarian"; that he merely aims to make Syria safe.
The same Turkish government, however, did not care much about the region's security when for years, jihadis were using Turkish-Syrian and Turkish-Iraqi borders to go to Syria and Iraq to join jihadist terrorist organizations. It is these terrorist groups that have largely destroyed Syria and Iraq, and devastated populations there.
In the meantime, Turkey's Foreign Ministry has announced that if "efforts to find common ground with the U.S. prove unsuccessful, Turkey will have to create a safe zone in Syria on its own."
Turkey's desire to establish a "safe zone" in Syria seems, rather, an open expression of Erdogan's government's expansionist, Ottomanist mentality. The Ottoman Empire occupied Syria for 400 years -- from the 16th century to 1918. The Ottoman Empire no longer exists: Today, the region is not within Turkey's borders. So whatever solutions will be implemented there to make Syria "safer" and "more stable" can hardly be made by Turkey.
If Europe surrenders to Erdogan's threats, Erdogan will most likely continue making other demands in exchange for allegedly keeping the migrants and refugees in Turkey -- a promise that the Turkish government has repeatedly threatened to break.
*Sezen Şahin is based in Europe.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

What Iran's Friends Are Doing in Gaza
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 07/2019
In other words, Islamic Jihad's promise is one of unending toxicity: to go on poisoning the hearts and minds of generation after generation of Palestinians – as well as to continue investing millions of dollars in building tunnels and amassing weapons to ensure that the fight against Israel continues forever.
"The policy of resistance and jihad is the genuine policy to liberate all Palestine, and the Palestinian people will not abandon this path. We will not accept any agreement that contradicts the project of jihad and liberation. Under no circumstances will we give up one inch of the land of Palestine." -- Senior Hamas official Salah Bardaweel.
For [Hamas and Islamic Jihad] , a ceasefire means further amassing weapons and preparing their people for war without worrying about Israeli military action. When will the international community pull its head out of the sand in which it has so long been buried and understand that with organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad running the show, the Gaza Strip will remain the humanitarian disaster that is so bitterly blamed on Israel?
Islamic Jihad has, since its establishment, brought on Palestinians in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip nothing but misery, destruction and death. Pictured: Islamic Jihad terrorists watch over a crowd from atop a mosque on March 27, 2010, in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip.
As Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations pursue their efforts to spare the two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip another war with Israel, the Islamic Jihad organization is promising its people more suffering, violence and bloodshed. The terrorist organization is also promising to continue the fight until it achieves its goal of annihilating Israel.
The Iranian-funded Islamic Jihad's latest pledges came as the organization, the second largest group in the Gaza Strip after Hamas, celebrated this week the 32nd anniversary of its founding.
Tens of thousands of Palestinians participated in a major Islamic Jihad rally in Gaza City under the banner "Our Jihad [holy war] – The Promise Will Soon Be Fulfilled." The promise, of course, refers to Islamic Jihad's pledge to "liberate Palestine, from the [Mediterranean] Sea to the [Jordan] River – a well-known euphemism for the destruction of Israel.
Particularly disturbing is that a large number of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, an enclave often described as suffering from a high percentage of poverty and unemployment, continue to support Islamic Jihad, one of the organizations there that has done nothing to improve the living conditions of its people. Their hatred for Israel seems to be stronger than any wish to better their situation by revolting against failed Palestinian leaders and groups.
Islamic Jihad has, since its establishment, brought on Palestinians in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip nothing but misery, destruction and death.
During the Second Intifada, which erupted in September 2000, Islamic Jihad and its military wing, Al-Quds Brigades, took credit for killing dozens of Israelis in more than 60 terror attacks. Since 2008, Islamic Jihad has fired thousands of rockets and mortars from the Gaza Strip into Israel, killing and wounding several Israelis. According to Iran's state-run Press TV, Islamic Jihad terrorists fired 3,000 rockets at Israel during the 2014 Israel-Hamas war.
After the war ended, the Qatari-owned Al-Jazeera TV network broadcast a video of Islamic Jihad's tunnel systems. In the video, an Islamic Jihad member declares that the organization is preparing for its next war with Israel and that the tunnels will be used to launch terror attacks and mortars on Israel.
In various statements marking its anniversary, Islamic Jihad could find nothing good to say about its "achievements" for the Palestinians. The organization did not use the millions of dollars it received from its sponsors in Iran to build a school or hospital in the Gaza Strip. It also did not use any of the funds to create job opportunities for the tens of thousands of unemployed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Instead, the money went into building tunnels, and smuggling and manufacturing thousands of rockets and mortars to attack Israel.
The only education Islamic Jihad has been offering is one in which children and teenagers receive radical Islamist indoctrination and semi-military training. A report by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center found that more than 100,000 Palestinian children and adolescents attend "summer camps" run by Islamic Jihad and Hamas each year:
"Their objective is to foster a cadre of future of Hamas [and Islamic Jihad] supporters and operatives for its military-terrorist wing and its organizational and administrative institutions. The campers learn the themes of 'the liberation of Palestine,' jihad and 'resistance' [i.e., terrorism], the destruction of the State of Israel, the so-called 'right of return' and other facets of the movement's anti-Israeli Islamist ideology."
In a statement last week, Islamic Jihad's military wing (Al-Quds Brigades) boasted that one of its major achievements in the past 32 years has been "instilling the spirit of jihad and sacrifice" in the hearts and minds of Palestinians. "The organization has always proved that our right to liberate our land can be achieved only through resistance, fighting and jihad against the criminal enemy," the statement added.
"The Zionist enemy knows that we are a thorn in its throat. We will remain so until the liberation of our land, from the river to the sea. We will continue to build our military capabilities."
In other words, Islamic Jihad's promise is one of unending toxicity: to go on poisoning the hearts and minds of generation after generation of Palestinians – as well as to continue investing millions of dollars in building tunnels and amassing weapons to ensure that the fight against Israel continues forever.
For Islamic Jihad leaders, easing the suffering of their people or ending the economic and humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip pale in comparison to the real goal of pursuing the fight against Israel – even if that means sacrificing the lives of all Palestinians.
"Let us fight for our freedom," Islamic Jihad leader Ziad al-Nakhalah said during the organization's rally on October 5.
"Be assured that victory belongs to those who pay the price for freedom and are always prepared to do so. Resistance and jihad are the only way to extract our right to Palestine. We stick to our right to all Palestine, no matter how long it takes."
Hamas also joined the celebration by congratulating Islamic Jihad on its anniversary and repeating the same threats to continue the fight and jihad against Israel. Salah Bardaweel, a senior Hamas official who attended the rally, heaped praise on his friends in Islamic Jihad for their continued commitment to waging terror attacks against Israel.
"We are proud of our relations with Islamic Jihad and its military wing," Bardaweel said.
"We are proud of all the resistance groups [in the Gaza Strip.] The policy of resistance and jihad is the genuine policy to liberate all Palestine, and the Palestinian people will not abandon this path. We will not accept any agreement that contradicts the project of jihad and liberation. Under no circumstances will we give up one inch of the land of Palestine."
Despite the ongoing threats by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Israel seems to have agreed to a temporary ceasefire with the Gaza-based terrorist groups. Last month, Israel even allowed the delivery of equipment into the Gaza Strip for constructing a new American-funded field hospital.
Last week, Israel was reported to have allowed thousands of Palestinians to enter from the Gaza Strip to conduct business and work at jobs, apparently as part of the ceasefire understandings reached under the auspices of Egypt, Qatar and the UN.
Earlier, Israel had allowed Qatar to deliver millions of dollars in cash to allow Hamas to pay salaries to its employees. In addition, Israel has allowed the UN to step up aid efforts in the Gaza Strip.
Evidently, Israel is doing more to help the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip than the leaders of Islamic Jihad and Hamas. As the recent statements by these leaders show, the two terrorist groups have nothing to offer their people. The only future they portray is one that consists of terrorism and jihad. The only future they promise is one where more young Palestinians will be recruited as suicide bombers and jihadis in a holy war whose chief goal is to eliminate Israel and replace it with an Iranian-backed Islamist state.
With leaders like these, the Palestinians do not need enemies. Hamas and Islamic Jihad simply continue their lies to the Egyptians, the Qataris and the rest of the world with their talk about a ceasefire with Israel.
For them, a ceasefire means further amassing weapons and preparing their people for war without worrying about Israeli military action. When will the international community pull its head out of the sand in which it has so long been buried and understand that with organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad running the show, the Gaza Strip will remain the humanitarian disaster that is so bitterly blamed on Israel?
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Did Iraqi Forces Shoot Protesters?
Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/October 07/2019
A variety of videos coming out of Baghdad show security forces shooting at protesters. Over 24 hours, as Friday turned to Saturday, the reports of snipers gunning down activists had grown.
The elephant in the room cannot be ignored: someone in Iraq's government told a section of the security forces to use live fire to kill protesters. It wasn't a mistake, it wasn't because police were outnumbered, and it wasn't isolated incidents.
Why would Iraqi forces shoot the protesters from the same cities and southern provinces that many of the security forces or Popular Mobilization Units are drawn from?
The question may be worth asking because there have been various rumors and claims about the protests in Iraq that have posited that those doing the killing and using the most heavy-handed measures are Iranian-linked groups. This creates an easy narrative of "Iran suppressing protests in Iraq" as part of the larger Iranian goal to control Iraq for its own purposes.
Someone in Iraq's government told a section of the security forces to use live fire to kill protesters.
To support the narrative of Iran's role, there have been stories about "Farsi speakers among the security forces" and "units changing uniforms" before attacking protesters. There are stories about plain-clothes officers among the security forces which leads to claims those in plain clothes are outsiders. In this narrative, spread in Arabic on social media, an "Iranian Revolutionary Guard Brigade" was permitted to enter Iraq by Fatah Alliance leader Hadi al-Amiri. The claim of foreign interference goes both ways. Others have pointed out that a concerted social media effort has been made to fuel protests and some of the accounts are located abroad. None of these stories present a full picture of what happened. From the first moments of the protest, the security forces that were sent used heavy-handed tactics. Video showed men in camouflage uniforms, heavily armed, involved in clashes, as well as other police-style units in darker uniforms.
Warnings about protests had gone out in the early hours of October 1 and Baghdad was on alert. There appeared to be no attempt by any high-level politicians to try to head-off the expected demonstrations.The protests were fueled by anger about corruption and failed government services.
From the first moments of the protest in Baghdad's Tahrir Square, the activists said they were angry about corruption and failed government services, as well as salaries. They said they wanted basic rights, like water, electricity and employment. Violence resulted as anti-riot forces tried to clear Tahrir Square and a bridge leading to it. By nightfall, several were killed and hundreds wounded. Muqtada al-Sadr, Hakim and Parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi indicated that an investigation should be launched into the heavy-handed response.
However, the developing crisis on October 1 lacked clarity in terms of which security forces were involved. Some of the police had empathy for the protesters, but other anti-riot police used harsh methods, beginning with water cannons and then tear gas and live ammunition. A narrative was formed blaming the Popular Mobilization Units, or Hashd al-Shaabi, a group of mostly Shi'ite paramilitaries that are part of the security forces.
Iraqi anti-riot police use water cannons against protestors in al-Tahrir square in Baghdad on October 1.
The crisis continued on October 2 and it was at this point that officials took the decision to impose a curfew in Baghdad and shut down social media, effectively trying to strangle the spreading demonstrations by cutting off the Internet. This didn't work, the protests were already spreading across southern Iraq. In Baghdad, according to some accounts, the Federal Police and the army both sought to protect protesters and were not involved in shooting them. This compounds the question about who carried out most of the killings, which reached above 60 by Friday evening.
With a curfew in place and the Internet restricted, the Defense Ministry and National Security Council paid close attention to the developing situation. By the morning of October 3, a total of 19 were reported killed. By nightfall, Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi made his first statement, claiming to be listening to the demonstrators and arguing that there was no magic solution to their demands. By the next morning, he would appear more lenient to listening to them, but it was still unclear who in his government had monitored and ordered the crackdown, including the use of snipers, against the demonstrators.
OCTOBER 4 was the turning point. Protesters promised on the night of October 3 that they would take revenge for the killings. They said they would come out in force after prayers and ignore the curfew in place. Ayatollah Ali Sistani sought to relieve some of the pressure by sympathizing with the demonstrators. By the afternoon, Muqtada al-Sadr had called for elections and former prime minister Haider al-Abadi had joined him.
By Saturday morning, the curfew had been lifted and a tense calm spread to Baghdad. According to data released and tweeted by journalist Lawk Ghafuri, in the afternoon a total of 93 protesters had been killed and 3,978 protesters and security forces wounded.
Almost 600 had been detained, with some already released. The data on the rising casualty count, from 60 on October 4 to around 100 by Saturday, may not reflect the fact that 40 more people were killed on the night of October 4, but rather full details coming in from hospitals. The numbers reported of those killed the first day were probably too low. Nevertheless, it was clear from video posted overnight between October 4 and 5 that snipers were shooting the protesters.
The overall picture of the protests then is that the first day was dominated by heavy-handed tactics by anti-riot forces. However, something changed after the violence on the night of October 2, perhaps motivated by officials' fears over protesters seeking to block the roads to the airport and areas around the Green Zone, more live fires and snipers were used. Security forces even entered hospitals, including Sheikh Zayed and Zafaraniya in Baghdad, to detain people. Once again, the story that it was militias or Shi'ite paramilitaries doing the monitoring of hospitals to detain wounded circulated in reports, including at The Washington Post.
The impunity with which some units used live ammunition raises questions about who controls Iraq's government.
The impunity with which some units used live ammunition to suppress protests in Iraq, especially in the heart of Baghdad, leads to many questions about the functioning of Iraq's government. Who gave the orders and which units were involved. Did they come from the Interior Ministry or from the prime minister's office? The issue is important because there is evidence that many forces did not use live ammunition and even worked to prevent it. One expert who follows Iraq closely and goes by the Twitter name "Tom Cat" argued that the culprits might be less professional "Facility Protection Service" units. But this wouldn't necessarily explain the use of snipers. The Joint Operations Command in Iraq said on October 4 they had no orders to use live fire.
When the crisis ends in Iraq, regardless of whether there are early elections or a shakeup in the power structure, the question of who ordered the shooting of protesters will remain. There is a rising crescendo of voices asserting that protesters have a right to demonstrate and demanding to know why they were suppressed brutally.
*Seth Frantzman, a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum, is the author of After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East (2019), op-ed editor of The Jerusalem Post, and founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis.

Saudi Arabia will act rationally, unlike Iran 
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 08/ 2019
Last month’s terrorist attack against Saudi Arabia, which targeted two Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in the east of the country, has escalated tensions in the Arabian Gulf, which had already been experiencing increased volatility due to Iran’s belligerence against the region’s countries, especially Saudi Arabia. The terrorist attack was claimed by the Houthis in Yemen. The investigation carried out by the Saudi-led Arab coalition and Saudi government, however, concluded that the drones and missiles had not been launched from Yemen. The initial examination of the weapons used in the attacks confirmed they were Iranian-manufactured. The global reaction was swift and extensive, with governments worldwide denouncing the attacks and expressing solidarity with Saudi Arabia. Many analysts suggested that it may be necessary for the international community to take deterrent measures against Tehran. However, countries such as China and Russia, clouded by their own economic interests, have refused to blame Tehran until presented with what they class as hard facts.
It is important to avoid any hasty, headstrong response, however tempting it may be. In such a sensitive situation, it is imperative that intensive analysis and strategic thinking take place, transcending the terrorist attack itself and instead examining the problematic political and ideological system controlling the decision-making process in Tehran. The latest terrorist operation, despite being dangerous, is nothing but an advanced model of a policy pursued by the Iranian regime for decades.
It is clear that the international community must shoulder its responsibility if it seeks stability and wants to avoid spiraling tensions and more wars in the region. If the international community is not spurred into action by the recent turbulent developments, then those countries that are the primary consumers of energy from the Middle East must take on some responsibility to defuse tensions in the region in order to avert global economic losses, which could happen if petrol prices keep fluctuating.
The Kingdom will not remain a bystander while its sovereignty and interests are endangered by Iran.
This is expected to happen as instability continues in the region. The volatility in the energy market is becoming ever more worrying as the world heads for a potential massive economic recession. How much deeper would the recession be if a significant rise in energy prices was added to the calculated economic losses? This was alluded to by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman following the recent terrorist attack. During an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes,” he agreed that the attacks were “an act of war by Iran.” He added: “If the world does not take strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests.”
If the international community will not act to protect its own interests and those of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh will have to explore the various options it has. But the option its leadership will settle on remains unknown to this author. First, Saudi Arabia may submit proof to the UN Security Council and seek a UN resolution condemning Iran and holding it accountable for the terrorist attacks. Second, if it is proved that the drones and missiles originated from Iranian soil, Saudi Arabia would have the absolute right and full legitimacy under international law to take steps to defend itself by targeting strategic Iranian positions. Third, should the world choose to ignore the various crises caused by the militias established by Iran in the region, the Kingdom may be forced to adopt a more aggressive policy toward them. It is clear Saudi Arabia has a number of options and it will carefully decide which one to pursue, but what is for sure is that the Kingdom will not remain a bystander while its sovereignty and interests are endangered by Iran.
While detailing the aforementioned options available to Riyadh, it is important to note that the Saudi decision-making process remains measured and well thought out, in contrast to the rage-driven responses of the perpetrators of this act of war. This is in addition to the fact that, unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia believes in respecting international treaties and charters as well as in the necessity of avoiding destructive wars and conflicts in the region. This Saudi mindset is something that will ensure that the Kingdom will act rationally, taking into consideration its interests and those of the region and the world; in direct contrast to Iran, which maximizes its own interests at the expense of others.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Only genuine, radical and deep-seated reform can save Iraq
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/October 08/ 2019
In 1381, ordinary people in many parts of England rose up. They were angry about jobs, pay, oppressive taxes and the corrupt influence of foreigners over government decisions. One of their leaders, Wat Tyler, is said to have lived in a village just a mile from where I write this. At Smithfield, just outside London, on June 14 that year, the king, the ill-fated Richard II, promised wholesale reform. The next day, Tyler was invited to meet the king in person and was murdered by members of his entourage, the revolt suppressed and all concessions revoked.
It’s an old story. Think of the Peasants’ War in Germany in 1524/5, the 1536 Pilgrimage of Grace in England, and the 1848 revolutions in Germany and Austria. Reactionary or incompetent governments faced with popular anger and demands for reform will say anything to get people off the streets, then recant and use brutal force to quash dissent.
It’s something we have also seen across the Middle East and North Africa over the last decade. And now we’re seeing it again in Iraq. I say “again” because there’s a recurring pattern. Nouri Al-Maliki used the Iraqi security forces (ISF) — largely controlled by his appointees — to suppress demonstrations in Baghdad in 2011 and, most notoriously, in Hawija in 2013. These were largely Sunni-led and were exploited by Daesh. Since then, we have seen broader-based popular discontent grow and metastasize in the largely Shiite southern governorates of Basra, Al-Muthanna, Dhi Qar, and Maysan, with major outbreaks in each of the last four years.
The current protests are perhaps the most serious so far. They seem to have erupted spontaneously and drawn in a wide variety of unaligned individuals and groups, often new to protest, without any visible central leadership. They began to snowball in Baghdad but spread like an avalanche, with significant levels of violence, attacks on buildings reportedly belonging to Da’wa, Al-Hikma, Fadhilah, the Communist Party, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq and even the government, and a massively heavy handed reaction by the security forces, which have so far killed about 100 demonstrators and wounded thousands more. And it’s not even summer, when protests over inadequate electricity provision have been the norm for years.
From everything we know — the postings, comments, chants and placards of the demonstrators and the sort of things their invited representatives have been saying to the Council of Representatives — the reason for all this is much the same as it was for Tyler 700 years ago: Anger at a corrupt, oppressive and exploitative ruling elite, whom no amount of elections has managed to displace, and a demand for real reform that delivers services, housing and jobs. The Cabinet in emergency session has issued a long list of decisions designed to demonstrate that they finally understand all this. But these commitments are unbudgeted, uncosted and entirely unrealistic given the dysfunctionality of Iraq’s government machine, constructed as it is out of intertwined patronage networks closely linked to the major political parties, who govern in the interests not of the nation or the people but themselves.
People have lost faith in a system that claims to be democratic and progressive but is, in reality, in hock to factional and external interests.
Iran — whose perceived malign influence has been a focus of much popular anger in the past and is again this time — has tried to blame the protests on Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel. Perhaps to distract attention, they claim to have thwarted an Israeli plot to assassinate Gen. Qassem Soleimani, whose lieutenants in Iraq more and more brazenly micromanage affairs to suit Tehran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through carefully constructed networks of influence and sometimes simply through unvarnished threats. Others around Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi have suggested the Ba’ath Party is responsible. This is ludicrous. Criticism of journalists for reporting the facts and the provocative attacks on them and the emergency services conducted by unidentified armed men (no prizes for guessing who they might be) are simply dangerous folly. The real problem, as we have repeatedly seen with rapidly declining turnouts in elections across the region over the last five years, is that people have lost faith in a system that claims to be democratic and progressive but is, in reality, oligarchic, deeply regressive and in hock to factional and external interests.
As we have also seen in Libya and increasingly in Lebanon, this system represents not primarily state but resource capture. It is control of resources that has enabled those who have really benefited from the destruction of the Saddamist state — self-serving ethno-sectarian elites and the major Iran-aligned militias of Badr, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba, As’aib Ahl Al-Haq and so forth, plus their IRGC handlers — to colonize state structures. The government itself is a fiction designed to disguise the realities of where power lies and is exercised.
I heard a senior US official complain the other day that, while Iran was good at following people around with bags of cash, the US could not and would not stoop to the same level. But that is to confuse features and functions. Corruption is not a feature: It’s the whole point of the exercise, how real power works. And it is precisely this that has aroused popular anger — a sense that casting a vote in a national or provincial election is meaningless because the people for whom you vote simply participate in a democratic shadow play while decisions are made elsewhere. And none of these decisions serve the interests of ordinary people.
One young demonstrator last week was quoted as saying that he didn’t want parties; all he wanted was a country in which to live. Al-Maliki used his two terms as prime minister (one of them stolen from Iyad Allawi) to divide Iraqis and rule in the interests of a closed circle. Haider Abadi was a bit better but still claims that everything that went wrong on his watch was someone else’s fault. Meanwhile, Abdul Mahdi seems to think that the government can resist calls to quit — most notably from Muqtada Al-Sadr — by blaming hidden hands or making grand statements that all those demonstrators killed by the ISF will be given Shahid (martyr) status; land, housing and jobs will be produced by magic; and social order will be restored. But the political sickness in Iraq goes far deeper than this.
You can seek explanations in the flawed foundation of the Iraqi state in the early 1920s, the bloody revolution from above of 1958, the long agony of Ba’athist rule and its deeply compromised ending in 2003. But, in the end, it’s not just about Iraq. The same pathology — presenting differently in different places — is visible in Libya, Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and many other places. The cure can only be a new approach to governance that prioritizes not illusions but reality. Iraq should be a rich country. It has oil, gas, water, agriculture and should have tourism (just like Libya, apart from the water). But the money keeps being stolen or diverted to suit the purposes of others. Basra, which should be at the heart of the economic revival, remains a dump. Mosul, with its twin Aleppo, the economic and cultural hub of the Levant, is in ruins. In the south, salination spreads. And that’s what we mean when we talk of corruption. That’s the sickness. The cure needs to be more radical than simply fine words or a new election.
Berthold Brecht, in his great poem “Die Losung” (The Solution) on the 1953 workers’ uprising in East Berlin, satirically mused that, if the government did not like the sort of things the people were demanding, perhaps they should simply elect a new people. That didn’t happen in East Germany. And it’s not going to happen in Iraq. But the protests aren’t going to die down either — this year, next year or whenever. Iraq needs clean, determined, effective and committed leaders who want to govern for Iraqis, not for themselves, Iran or indeed the US. People, for example, like the admirable Lt. Gen. Abdul-Wahab Al-Sa’adi, who Abdul Mahdi sacked last week — allegedly at Iran’s instigation — to popular outrage from Shiites and Sunnis alike.
The prime minister has a brief chance to seize the initiative and promote genuine, radical and deep-seated reform that actually means something. He has Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani with him. He could probably gain Sadrist support if he plays his hand cleverly. He needs to show real courage. I hope he does. But resistance will be fierce. The flashpoint of Arba’een approaches, with its millions of Shiite pilgrims. Time presses.
*Sir John Jenkins is a senior fellow at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain and was a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015

Oil — weakening global economic outlook trumps geopolitics
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 08/ 2019
After the Sept. 14 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities had knocked out 50 percent of Saudi production, which equaled about 5 percent of global production, the Brent price briefly surpassed the $70 mark. More than three weeks later, oil is continuing its losing streak and the question on everybody’s mind is how much lower will it go? In early Monday European trading, Brent was at $58.58, slightly up from last Thursday’s low of about $57. On the same day, West Texas Intermediate looked perilously close to undershooting the $50 mark.
What happened? Firstly, Saudi Aramco proved its competence and restored production by Sept. 25, days ahead of schedule. Capacity is slated to be restored by Nov. 30. In other words, the supply concerns were blown away in just under two weeks.
The demand picture also looks less than rosy as trade wars and a general slowing of the global economy have taken their toll. Economic data releases have disappointed on both sides of the Atlantic and especially in China, where the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 49.8 for September. While that is slightly up from the country’s August number of 49.5, it still represents a contraction in manufacturing output. Last Wednesday, stock markets saw their worst day of the year on the back of the disappointing global economic data releases. We are looking at the inevitable end of the growth cycle, which started after the global financial downturn of 2008/2009.
The outlook for oil looks challenging in the near future, at least until the next unexpected event happens on the supply or the demand front.
The outlook for oil has not looked so bleak since the financial crisis. According to Standard Chartered, oil demand has risen year on year in 113 months and only fallen in seven, five of which have been in 2019. The Thursday low was also influenced by the US Energy Information Agency, as it released its monthly crude inventory data. Stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, which was nearly double the amount expected.
News from the US-China trade front was also bleak, with President Donald Trump contemplating even more stringent restrictions. We shall see where this takes us when the US and Chinese delegations meet this week. The World Trade Organization gave the Trump administration the go-ahead to impose $7.5 billion of tariffs on the EU as a countermeasure to illegal government aid to Airbus. We can expect the EU to not take this lying down and continue its proceedings against Boeing.
If the current supply-demand situation persists, OPEC+, an alliance between OPEC and 10 friendly oil-producing nations led by Russia, will probably need to review its production agreement. In June, it decided to take out production to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through March 2020. The supply overhang is set to get worse as observers expect a 2.2 million bpd wall of non-OPEC crude to hit the markets later this year and into 2020.
The picture is not rosy. Fears over the global economic outlook clearly dominate. Then again, markets are fickle and geopolitics could kick in at any time. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, is facing a challenging domestic situation, with riots that have led to the deaths of more than 100 people. It is unlikely, but still within the realms of possibility, that the unrest could affect oil exports if it spins out of control. One also never knows quite what to expect from Libya and Nigeria, which have surprised on the upside as well as on the downside due to their challenging domestic situations.
The shale industry is slowing. Low prices challenge profitability. One only needs to listen to radio stations in Texas, where ads aimed at hiring oilmen have dried up. Many experts also expect the Permian Basin to near the end of its expansive lifespan. That said, the shale space has never ceased to surprise over the last decade-and-a-half.
All in all, the outlook for oil looks challenging in the near future, at least until the next unexpected event happens on the supply or the demand front. There is only one certainty in the oil space, which is that nothing is ever certain.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources