LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 05/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
They went out from us, but they did not belong to us; for if they had belonged to us, they would have remained with us

First Letter of John 02/12-20/:”I am writing to you, little children, because your sins are forgiven on account of his name. I am writing to you, fathers, because you know him who is from the beginning. I am writing to you, young people, because you have conquered the evil one. I write to you, children, because you know the Father. I write to you, fathers, because you know him who is from the beginning. I write to you, young people, because you are strong and the word of God abides in you,and you have overcome the evil one. Do not love the world or the things in the world. The love of the Father is not in those who love the world; for all that is in the world the desire of the flesh, the desire of the eyes, the pride in riches comes not from the Father but from the world. And the world and its desire are passing away, but those who do the will of God live for ever. Children, it is the last hour! As you have heard that antichrist is coming, so now many antichrists have come. From this we know that it is the last hour. They went out from us, but they did not belong to us; for if they had belonged to us, they would have remained with us. But by going out they made it plain that none of them belongs to us. But you have been anointed by the Holy One, and all of you have knowledge.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 04- 05/2019
Aoun: Lebanon a peace-loving country
Hariri: There is a great effort from the government to get out of the crisis
Hariri, Bassil Hold 'Very Good' Meeting after Rift Reports
Hariri receives new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of Malta
U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon
Gas Stations, Money Changers Threaten Fresh Strikes
Choucair: I Won't Drink Coffee or Tea with Financial Prosecutor
Report: Syria-Lebanon Contact Issue Strains Aoun-Hariri Ties
Lebanon Says Rise in Imports behind Spike in Dollar Demand
Lebanon: Security Forces Arrest 2 Syrians Accused of Kidnaping Lebanese In Turke
Lebanon: Political Divisions Over Privatization of Public Sector
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper, Al Akhbar
Report: Diplomats Form 'Crisis Cell' to Follow on Lebanon Developments
Jarrah tackles media affairs with Press Syndicate delegatio
Bou Saab tackles latest developments with Bukhari
Army: Syrian referred to court for contacting Israeli enemy

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04- 05/2019

Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as Israel spy. IDF on high alert for surprise Iran attack
Moscow Summons Iran Envoy over Arrest of Russian Journalist in Tehran
Protests, Blood…What's Happening in Iraq?
Baghdad Clashes Mount as Top Shiite Cleric Endorses Iraq Protes
Paris Insists On 'Opportunity of Negotiations' Between Washington, Tehran
Sanctions Paralyze Goods' Imports via Iranian Ports
US, Turkey Conduct Third Joint Patrol in Northeast Syria
Riyadh Says Huthi Offer of Truce in Yemen 'Positive'
New Talks over Nile Waters Kick Off in Sudan
Tunisia: Second Round of Presidential Race Commences
Sisi Reviews With Armed Forces Anti-Terrorism Strategy

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04- 05/2019
U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon/Associated Press/October 04/2019
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper, Al Akhbar/Jerusalem Post/October 04/2019
Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as Israel spy. IDF on high alert for surprise Iran attack/DEBKAfile/October 04/2019
Analysis/It’s Tempting to Connect the Dots, but Iran-Israel War Doesn’t Seem Imminent/Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 04/2019
The Hat, the Turban And the Cap: Which Can Save the Mullahs/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
Who's Afraid of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2019
Saudi Aramco Attacks… Saudi Gains, Iranian Losses/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
Impeachment inquiry will actually stabilize US policy/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 04/2019
EU security crucial to Macron’s Russia initiative/Mark Leonard/Arab News/October 04/2019
Is the far right on the ropes in Europe/Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 04/2019
Turkish parties clash over Syria strategy/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 04/2019
War and peace, and a morning workout, at Russian Energy Week/Frank Kane/Arab News/October 04/2019
Iran’s attempt to force the US back to the JCPOA failed miserably/Tony Badran/Al-Arabiya/October 04/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 04- 05/2019
Aoun: Lebanon a peace-loving country

NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, maintained Friday that "Lebanon is a peace-loving country which neither produces nor uses landmines.""We exist next to an enemy, Israel, that uses mines as weapons undeterredly," Aoun said. "Lebanon is still suffering from the landmines and cluster bombs the Israeli enemy used in its hostilities on Lebanon during the 2006 July war," he added. "Lebanon does not oppose joining the Ottawa Treaty on the prohibition of anti-personnel mines," he underlined, stressing that Lebanon is working hard on demining its lands. Aoun made these remarks during his meeting at Baabda palace with Goodwill Ambassador Princess Astrid of Belgium, the Special Envoy of the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention or Ottawa Treaty. For her part, Princess Astrid congratulated Aoun on the UN endorsement of establishing the Academy for Human Encounters and Dialogue in Lebanon. She also heaped praise on Lebanon's demining efforts.

Hariri: There is a great effort from the government to get out of the crisis

NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri denied that the work on the 2020 draft budget law has been suspended while waiting for an agreement on the necessary reforms. He said: “We are working on all files at the same time. There is a focus on reforms these days, to see what can be included in the budget.”In a chat with journalists, Hariri described his meeting with Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil as very good and said: “There is an abnormal attack on the country. It is true that we have problems, but the government is working to solve the problems. There is a great effort from the government and, hopefully, we will get out of this crisis.” Asked if the relationship with Minister Bassil would be mended, he answered: “Nothing happened to this relationship that needs to be mended”.
Reforms committee
Earlier, Hariri chaired the Ministerial committee tasked with studying the economic and financial reforms, in the presence of Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan Hasbani and Ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Mohammad Fneish, Jamal Jarrah, Mansour Bteich, Mohammed Choucair, Saleh Gharib, Salim Jreissati, Youssef Fenianos, Camille Abu Suleiman, Wael Abou Faour, Adel Afiouni and a number of advisors. After the meeting, Jarrah said: “The Financial and Economic Reform Committee held its session today under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Hariri. The Minister of communications explained the situation of the sector, the prospects to improve the telecommunications situation in Lebanon and his strategic vision for the future of the sector in Lebanon. After that, we moved to the Public Procurement Law. The Institut Bassel Fuleihan explained the new law, which takes into account the highest international standards, and was done at the Ministry of Finance. The law will be discussed later in detail, approved in the Council of Ministers and sent to Parliament”.Question: What is your response to the request of the financial prosecutor to interrogate you in the communication file? Jarrah: Of course, Judge Ali Ibrahim asked to hear me when I was a deputy. I consulted Speaker Nabih Berri and he told me not to go. After I became a minister, Judge Ibrahim asked to hear me so I visited him and talked to him about the file at the time, but now the situation has changed a little. Today there are procedures that we must follow, and there is a law that fosters the relationship between ministers, the judiciary and the public finance prosecution. We have nothing to hide. When a parliamentary commission of inquiry was put forward, we said that we are ready for such a committee, provided that it would be public and that all media would be present. We have no objection to this, in order to inform the Lebanese public about all the rationale and put an end to these daily accusations by responsible people, who tell the public opinion that there is corruption and squander in the Ministry of communications.
Hence, if there is a parliamentary commission of inquiry, let it be public in order to stop these talks, and speak the language of numbers, at a time when no one in the country wants to speak in the language of numbers. Everyone wants to launch theories according to his political mood. There are numbers and major achievements in the Ministry of Communications that Minister Mohammed Choucair is pursuing. Whoever wants to discuss numbers, data and facts is welcome. Whoever wants to talk about politics, let him talk alone. In the previous period we did not respond to anyone, but from now on we will respond to all.
Question: Isn't the financial prosecutor entitled to ask to hear a minister? Jarrah: Legally not. Even the financial prosecutor, when he called he ministers, he talked about it in the media, which is illegal. Second, it is necessary to take the opinion of the Prosecutor General in this matter, and this did not happen. For our part, when the procedure is legal, we will consider the subject.

Hariri, Bassil Hold 'Very Good' Meeting after Rift Reports
Naharnet/October 04/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil held talks Friday at the Center House, following tensions between their two parties. Describing the meeting with Bassil as “very good,” Hariri told reporters that his relation with the FPM chief remained intact despite the tensions between the FPM and al-Mustaqbal Movement. Earlier in the day, informed sources told LBCI TV that the meeting between the two men was “excellent.”“The meeting confirmed once again that there is no problem between the two sides and it involved ordinary coordination on several files,” the sources added. “The meeting kickstarts a series of contacts that the head of the bloc (Bassil) will carry out to invigorate governmental work with the aim of finalizing the 2020 state budget based on the needed reformist principles and implementing the electricity plan,” the sources said. They added: “The meeting with Hariri was fruitful and the atmosphere is more than excellent and there was an exchange of ideas in order to push things in the right direction.” A meeting between Bassil and cadres of Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal Movement was called off Tuesday amid tensions between the two parties. MP George Atallah of the FPM’s Strong Lebanon bloc said “Mustaqbal officials asked Prime Minister Saad Hariri to call off the seminar following tweets by Strong Lebanon bloc MP Ziad Aswad. “Hariri agreed to their request,” Atallah added, in remarks to MTV. “According to our information, the Mustaqbal officials demanded a clarification about Aswad’s tweets in order to reconsider the meeting with Bassil,” Atallah added.

Hariri receives new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of Malta
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received this evening the new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of Malta, Bertrand Besancenot, who said: “The meeting was an occasion to discuss the cooperation between the Order of Malta and Lebanon that is old and productive and covers all the territory. We want to help all those in need regardless of their beliefs or ethnic affiliations, and this cooperation is well conducted with the health service institutions in Lebanon and with the various communities”. He added: “Lebanon is a model country where cooperation and coexistence between different groups are strong, despite all the difficulties. Pope John Paul II already described this country as a message to the world and this is the truth. The meeting also focused on the upcoming official visit of the President of the Order of Malta to Lebanon between November 4 and 9, which will be an occasion to meet with Lebanese officials, visit all centers where the Order of Malta is active, and sign of a number of cooperation agreements. The visit is important to strengthen the exemplary cooperation between us, appreciated by everyone”.

U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 04/2019
The conflict between Iran and the U.S. that has created tensions throughout much of the Middle East is now also being felt in Lebanon, where Washington has slapped sanctions on the Iran-backed Hizbullah and warned they could soon expand to its allies, further deepening the tiny Arab country’s economic crisis.
The Trump administration has intensified sanctions on the Lebanese group and institutions linked to it to unprecedented levels, targeting lawmakers for the first time as well as a local bank that Washington claims has ties to the group.
Two U.S. officials visited Beirut in September and warned the sanctions will increase to deprive Hizbullah of its sources of income. The push is further adding to Lebanon's severe financial and economic crisis, with Lebanese officials warning the country's economy and banking sector can’t take the pressure.
"We have taken more actions recently against Hizbullah than in the history of our counterterrorism program," Sigal P. Mandelker, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury, said in the United Arab Emirates last month.
Mandelker said Washington is confident the Lebanese government and the central bank will “do the right thing here in making sure that Hizbullah can no longer have access to funds at the bank.”
Hizbullah, whose Arabic name translates into "Party of God," was established by Iran's Revolutionary Guard after Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The group, which enjoys wide support among Lebanon's Shiite community, runs institutions such as hospitals, clinics and schools.
Today, it is among the most effective armed groups in the Middle East with an arsenal more powerful than that of the Lebanese army, and has sent thousands of its fighters to Syria to back President Bashar Assad's forces in that country’s civil war. Hizbullah and its allies have more power than ever in parliament and government and President Michel Aoun is a strong ally of the group.
Hizbullah has acknowledged the sanctions are affecting them, but it says it has been able to cope with sanctions imposed by the U.S. for years. The group, however, warned that it is the job of the Lebanese state to defend its citizens when they come under sanctions simply because they belong to the group, are Shiite Muslims, or are Hizbullah sympathizers.
In July, the Treasury Department targeted two Hizbullah legislators, Amin Sherri and Mohammad Raad, in the first such move against lawmakers currently seated in Lebanon's parliament. A month later, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank for what it called “knowingly facilitating banking activities.” The bank, which denied the charges, was forced to close afterward.
Neither Sherri nor Raad responded to requests for comment from The Associated Press.
So far, all the figures who have come under sanctions have been either Hizbullah officials or Shiite Muslim individuals who Washington says are aiding the group.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group will “study well our alternatives” now that the U.S. is targeting banks that Hezbollah does not own or deal with, as well as rich individuals and merchants simply because of their religious affiliation.
“We said it in the past that when we are subjected to injustice we can be patient, but when our people are subjected to injustice we should behave in a different way,” he said.
Nasrallah said the state and the government should defend Lebanese citizens. In an apparent reference to the Lebanese central bank that implements U.S. sanctions, Nasrallah said: “Some state institutions should not rush to implement the American desires and orders this way.”
Walid Marrouch, an associate professor of economics at the Lebanese American University, says Lebanon’s economy is 70% dollarized and since Lebanon is using this currency, Beirut has to abide by (U.S.) laws.
“We’re already living in a crisis and it will only make it worse,” he said of sanctions and if Lebanon decides to stop abiding by U.S. Treasury Department orders.
Antoine Farah, who heads the business section of the daily Al-Joumhouria newspaper, wrote that if Hizbullah's desires turn out to be orders, "we will be facing a confrontation such that no one would want to be in our shoes."
"If Hizbullah decides to fight America with the money of the Lebanese we guarantee a quick collapse and staying at the bottom for a long time, like Venezuela," he wrote.
During a visit to Beirut, David Schenker, the U.S.’s assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, said Washington will designate in the future "individuals in Lebanon who are aiding and assisting Hizbullah, regardless of their sect or religion."
Schenker did not elaborate in his interview with local LBC TV but local TV stations said Washington could start targeting Christian allies of the group, which has 14 members in parliament and three Cabinet ministers, including the Health Ministry.
Health Minister Jamil Jabbak, who is not a member of Hizbullah but is believed to be close to the group's leader, was not granted a U.S. visa to attend the U.N. General Assembly in late September.
Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea visited Lebanon last week and a U.S. Embassy statement said he would "encourage Lebanon to take the necessary steps to maintain distance from Hizbullah and other malign actors attempting to destabilize Lebanon and its institutions."
At the end of his visit, Billingslea met a group of journalists representing local media and told them that the U.S. Treasury was posting a $10 million reward for anyone who provides "valuable information on Hizbullah's finances," according to the Daily Star.
He said the main goal of the U.S. Treasury "was to deprive Hizbullah of all financial support, whether from Iran or through any other means." Billingslea said Iran used to send the group $700 million a year, adding that U.S. sanctions on Iran have "diminished considerably" the cash inflow.
Imad Marmal, a journalist close to Hizbullah who has a talk show on the group's Al-Manar TV, wrote that the group wants the Lebanese state to put forward a national plan to face the "American siege" that will end up affecting not only Shiites but the country's economy generally. He added that those who are being targeted by the sanctions are Lebanese citizens, whom the state should protect.
Hizbullah "is not going to scream in pain as the United States is betting, neither today nor tomorrow and not even in a hundred years."

Gas Stations, Money Changers Threaten Fresh Strikes
Naharnet/October 04/2019
The syndicate of fuel distributors and owners of fuel stations and tankers on Friday decided to stage a strike on Monday “unless the ongoing contacts result in solutions that satisfy those who work in the sector,” in connection with the dollar rationing crisis in the country. The syndicate of money changers for its part threatened that the entire sector might stage an open-ended strike or close shops permanently if the “unjust accusations” against it continue, stressing that its work is “legal.”The central bank on Monday adopted a measure that would allow importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine to obtain dollars at the official bank rate to pay for key imports. But stocks purchased prior to the measure and ambiguity surrounding the mechanism and responsibilities will likely prolong the crisis for some time. Local media said last week banks and money exchange shops were rationing dollar sales in the country, where Lebanese pounds and U.S. dollars are used interchangeably in everyday transactions. Lebanon has had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place since 1997. Central bank governor Riad Salameh last week denied that the country was facing a currency reserve crisis, as exchange rates on the parallel market reached 1,600 Lebanese pounds last week. It has also become difficult to withdraw dollars from ATMs for Lebanese lira account holders or to convert large sums in banks.On Thursday, Salameh said that increased imports could have raised the demand for dollars in the country, noting this has pushed money changers to charge higher exchange rates. In a televised speech, Salameh also raised doubts over whether increased imports were being used for local consumption, following reports of smuggling to neighboring Syria.

Choucair: I Won't Drink Coffee or Tea with Financial Prosecutor
Naharnet/October 04/2019
Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair announced Friday that he will not meet with Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim for a testimony over suspected wrongdoing in the telecom sector. “I will not appear at the office of the financial prosecutor, neither for coffee nor for tea, and if he wants to meet I’m ready to host him at my house or office,” Choucair told reporters.“Let them interrogate all telecom ministers who served between 1992 and today,” he added, lamenting that the file has been “politicized.”“Let no one try to outsmart or intimidate us,” he said.
“Neither I nor Minister Jamal al-Jarrah will attend, and if he wants to come he is welcome,” Choucair went on to say. Noting that Ibrahim needs a permission from the state prosecutor to summon ministers, Choucair stressed that he is “not a suspect.”“I said it once and I reiterate: if he wants to interrogate ministers, he has to do that with all the former telecom ministers, from Butros Harb to Jamal al-Jarrah, Marwan Hamadeh, Nicolas Sehnaoui and others, whereas the selection of a number of ministers from them is a political issue. This is unacceptable and is rather a farce,” Choucair added. Harb meanwhile announced that he has met with the financial prosecutor at the latter’s request. “Judge Ibrahim asked me about the work mechanisms at the Telecom Ministry and the role and legal status of the OGERO authority and its legal relation with the Telecom Ministry, in addition to the work of mobile network operators and the modifications that were introduced to the contracts of operating the two mobile networks when they were extended in the year 2012,” the ex-minister added.

Report: Syria-Lebanon Contact Issue Strains Aoun-Hariri Ties
Naharnet/October 04/2019
The President’s remarks about restoring contacts between Lebanon and Syria was reportedly the trigger for the economic crisis in Lebanon and for straining ties between President Michel Aoun and PM Saad Hariri, the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper reported on Friday. According to the daily, informed sources said: “The President's remarks about communicating with the Syrian regime lies behind the security financial and economic crisis witnessed in Lebanon, which spread to allies of the political settlement, that is between Aoun and Hariri and to their political parties," the Free Patriotic Movement and al-Mustaqbal. Amid fresh tensions between the two parties, a Tuesday meeting between FPM chief Jebran Bassil and cadres of al-Mustaqbal Movement has been called off. The same sources said the tension was exacerbated by the belief of Aoun’s team that Hariri was in the picture of proposing to communicate with Damascus as a pressure on the Americans and Europeans and everything that links the return of the displaced Syrians to the political solution in Syria. But after the presidential speech in New York, some have “raised the voice of rejection, which necessitated Hariri to reconsider the matter,” said the sources. Coordination between Lebanon and Syria is a contentious issue in Lebanon. Some of Lebanon's political parties support it, while others including Hariri, categorically reject it and blame the Syrian regime for the assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri.

Lebanon Says Rise in Imports behind Spike in Dollar Demand
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Lebanon's central bank governor said Thursday that increased imports could have raised the demand for dollars in the country, noting this has pushed money changers to charge higher exchange rates. In a televised speech, Riad Salameh also raised doubts over whether increased imports were being used for local consumption, following reports of smuggling to neighbouring Syria. "We don't know if all of these imports are for domestic consumption," he said. Lebanon has had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place since 1997. But last week, petrol station owners and flour producers who pay importers and suppliers in dollars complained that they had to resort to much higher rates from money changers because banks were not meeting their demand. Exchange rates on the parallel market reached 1,600 Lebanese pounds last week and it has become almost impossible to withdraw dollars from ATMs or to convert large sums in banks. "Since June, the demand for (dollar) banknotes has increased," Salameh said, adding that shipments of dollar notes used by money exchange houses has "doubled." "This (increased) demand could be domestic, from petrol station owners, flour mills, or pharmacies," who have to pay importers and suppliers in dollars, he said.
He explained that the spike in demand is "because of an increase in imports on certain goods", adding that it has led to a discrepancy of 1 to 3 percent between the exchange rate offered by money changers and the fixed price at banks. The central bank on Monday adopted a measure that would allow importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine to obtain dollars at the official bank rate to pay for key imports. "Banks that issue letters of credit for the importation of petroleum products (petrol, fuel oil and gas), wheat and medicine will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure the value of such credits in US dollars," read the decision published by the National News Agency. On Thursday, Salameh said that commercial banks must ensure the central bank credit lines are used exclusively to purchase imports for domestic consumption. "This is an essential matter, not just for Lebanon's monetary (situation) but also its reputation" and its place in the globalised economy, he added.  In August, Lebanon's Blominvest Bank said oil imports "more than doubled" in the first quarter of 2019. It said "the smuggling to Syria amid the rationing of oil in the country" could be among the factors leading to the hike.

Lebanon: Security Forces Arrest 2 Syrians Accused of Kidnaping Lebanese In Turkey
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The Lebanese Internal Security Forces announced on Thursday arresting two persons in Beirut accused of kidnapping Lebanese in Turkey in return for a ransom.
The ISF said it also arrested the mastermind of the gang, whose members are all Syrians. In a statement issued on Thursday, the ISF said, “On Sept. 24, two Lebanese were kidnapped by an unidentified gang while on a trip to Turkey. The two captured were later released in return for a ransom of $16,000.”
It said the sum was delivered to the abductors through exchange firms in Lebanon and Turkey. After being informed about the incident, the ISF launched an investigation into the case in Lebanon and Turkey.
According to the statement, the ISF members uncovered the identity of the person who received the ransom. The man is a Syrian, born in 1989, and works in an exchange firm owned by another Syrian. After monitoring and observation operations, a patrol from the ISF’s Intelligence Bureau was capable to arrest the two Syrian in Corniche al-Mazraa, in Beirut on Sept. 27. The two men possessed in liquidity a sum of L.L.200 million (around $132,000), $34,000 and 1,950 British pounds, in addition to bank checks.
They confessed having received the ransom from the two Lebanese who were kidnapped in Turkey last month through an exchange office they deal with in Turkey.

Lebanon: Political Divisions Over Privatization of Public Sector

Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Disagreements re-surfaced among Lebanon’s political leaders over the privatization of state institutions, mainly those that incur huge treasury losses, such as electricity and water. The head of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), former MP Walid Jumblatt, warned against “suspicious capitals seizing the public sector under the pretext of privatization, especially amid political chaos in Lebanon.” In a tweet on Thursday, Jumblatt said it would be “shameful” that “arms dealers or other opportunists” control the public sector under the pretext of privatization, in light of the current political chaos.
PSP secretary-general Zafer Nasser said that resolving the economic crisis in Lebanon should begin with bold decisions and reforms in the structure of the state. “Jumblatt knows that the problem of electricity is a major cause of the deficit, as well as squandering and corruption in other sectors,” he noted.
“We smell secret deals and agreements under the table under the title of reform,” he remarked, adding: “Selling the public sector to the private sector means that the interests of the Lebanese will be in the hands of people, and this complicates the problem and does not solve it.”
Financial and economic expert, Dr. Ghazi Wazneh, does not hide the existence of real fears of privatization, especially in electricity, water, and telecommunications. In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were asking Lebanon not rush with such a decision, because the country has no experience in privatization, which has shown its failure in some other countries. Wazneh stressed the importance of public offerings, where the citizens are allowed to subscribe to electricity and telecommunications shares, “so that every citizen buys one share, and the share sold does not exceed 35 percent of the value of the company, and then no one becomes the decision-maker.”“This proposal is mentioned in the paper submitted by Prime Minister Saad Hariri,” he said. Dr. Charbel Kordahi, economic adviser to the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, underlined the need to "distinguish between privatization, which means the sale of economic activity by the government to the private sector in full, and the partnership between the public and private sectors, which will allow the private sector to become a partner in profits and a shareholder of capital."

Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper, Al Akhbar
Jerusalem Post/October 04/2019
The newspaper obtained a classified document from an undisclosed source claiming that Saudi Arabia proposed two options to the United States on how to topple the Islamic Republic – Nimrod and Spider.
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper
After previously disclosing a detailed plan in 2017 accusing Saudi Arabia and the United States of attempting to overthrow the Iranian government, the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar released further details elaborating on their previous claim.
The newspaper obtained a classified document from an undisclosed source claiming that Saudi Arabia proposed two options to the US on how to topple the Islamic Republic – “Nimrod” and “Spider.”
Spider focused on using software to sway political opinions within the government in the hopes of bringing about a regime change by 2020.
The other plan, Nimrod, was aimed at internationally isolating Iran by operating and increasing the number of Persian-language media programs – in order to feature and focus on content approved by the Kingdom, according to Al Akhbar.
Saudi Arabia currently owns and manages the London-based Persian-language TV channel Iran International.
Iran’s embassy in Britain filed a lawsuit against the channel last September due to the support given by the program for the terrorist group, whose live gunman attacked the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp during a military parade in Ahvaz in the southwestern province of Khuzestan that month, which killed 26 and wounded 69 others. “The Iranian embassy in London has taken its official lawsuit to ‘Ofcom’ [asking it] to investigate the Iran International TV channel’s illegal move to broadcast an interview with the spokesman of the [al-Ahwazi Yeh] terrorist group,” Iranian Ambassador to the UK Hamid Baeidinejad tweeted last year.The terrorist group responsible for the attack, al-Ahwazi Yeh, allegedly receives most of its funding from Saudi Arabia, according to Iranian state-run media. Shortly after the attack, the channel invited the group’s spokesperson to speak live on air to justify the attacks.

Report: Diplomats Form 'Crisis Cell' to Follow on Lebanon Developments
Naharnet/October 04/2019
A crisis cell composed of diplomats has reportedly been formed two week ago to follow closely on the developments in Lebanon, mainly its worsening economic crisis following fears of a dollar shortage and possible currency devaluation, Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Friday. The crisis cell consists of ambassadors of the United States of America, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, said the daily. “They are in constant contact with each other to exchange information and coordinate positions on the way to deal with the file of Lebanon in light of the economic crisis, in an attempt for their states to come up with a common reading on this file,” said Nidaa al-Watan. According to information, members of the cell have two points of view. One encouraging a “non-interference” policy to save the economic situation in Lebanon in a bid to pressure the government to review its foreign policy and position towards Hizbullah, and to push it into accelerating the implementation of the required reforms. The other group encourages the need to assist Lebanon without benefiting Hizbullah. They argue that a collapse in Lebanon’s structure falls in the party’s favor and paves the way for its total domination of Lebanon, according to the daily.

Jarrah tackles media affairs with Press Syndicate delegation
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
Minister of Information, Jamal Al Jarrah, on Friday welcomed in his office at the Ministry a delegation of the Press Syndicate, led by its Dean Auni Al-Kaaki. Talks reportedly touched on the general situation in the country, most notably at the media level. On emerging, Dean Al Kaaki said they discussed an array of matters pertaining to the media sector, expressing dismay about certain media outlets disseminating false news or rumors that harm the Lebanese economy and currency stability. On the other hand, Al-Kaaki deplored any offense targeting the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House, since they represent the symbol of the country. "Whoever offends them, is in fact offending the country's symbols," he corroborated. Al Kaaki said the Minister highlighted the crucial role played by the press in shedding light on the positive aspects of the country, rather than the negative ones. The Press Syndicate head stressed that the Lebanese economy and monetary situation is solid, saying "rumors only lead to the disruption of the state's path."

Bou Saab tackles latest developments with Bukhari

NNA -Fri 04 Oct 2019
National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, on Friday welcomed in his office at the Ministry Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, with whom he discussed most recent developments on the local arena. Talks also reportedly touched on the bilateral relations and means of bolstering joint cooperation.

Army: Syrian referred to court for contacting Israeli enemy

NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The Lebanese Army indicated, in a communiqué on Friday, that its Intelligence Directorate had referred a Syrian national to the competent court for contacting Israeli phone numbers and communicating with Israelis present inside the occupied Palestinian lands.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04- 05/2019
Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as Israel spy. IDF on high alert for surprise Iran attack
DEBKAfile/October 04/2019
Yulia Yuzik, a Russian journalist and author, whose work on female suicide bombers is widely published in the West, is due to stand trial on Saturday, Oct. 5, on charge of spying for Israel. She could face 10 years in prison. Iran’s ambassador was urgently summoned to the Russian Foreign Minister on Friday to “quickly clarify the circumstances of the incident and ensure the rights of the Russian woman,” spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. Earlier the Russian embassy in Tehran confirmed that Yuzik had arrived in Tehran on Sept. 29 on a private invitation and her passport was seized at the airport for unknown reasons. She was arrested at her hotel on Oct. 2 by Revolutionary Guards officers. Her ex-husband Boris Voltsekhovsky said on Friday, Oct. 4, that she had called him from detention four days after her arrival in Iran.
DEBKAfile: Yulia Yuzik is widely known for her researches on the jihadist terrorist movements operating in the Caucasus including Chechnya. For the past 10 years, she has reported on the subject for GQ and Foreign Policy. Her book Brides of Allah on Chechen female suicide bombers was published in ten countries. She is currently working on a book that is at once a collection of travel notes and a detailed description of the methods that terrorists use to transform normal individuals into suicide bombers.

Moscow Summons Iran Envoy over Arrest of Russian Journalist in Tehran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Russia's government has summoned Iran's ambassador to Moscow to clarify the circumstances around the arrest of a Russian journalist in Tehran, the foreign ministry said on Friday. Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Iran's envoy was "invited to the foreign ministry to quickly clarify the circumstances" and ensure the rights of journalist Yulia Yuzik are observed. The ambassador told deputy foreign minister Igor Morgulov that Yuzik had been detained to be questioned but "would soon be released," according to a statement by the ministry later Friday. The Russian embassy in Tehran told AFP the mission had requested consular access to the journalist. "She's being accused of working for Israeli security services," Andrei Ganenko, a spokesman for the Russian embassy in Tehran, told AFP, citing her mother. Journalist Boris Voitsekhovskiy, identified by Russian media as Yuzik's ex-husband, said she was detained in Tehran and jailed on Thursday. A court hearing is scheduled for Saturday, he said. Voitsekhovskiy said Yuzik was detained by members of the Iranian revolutionary guard, who had broken down her hotel door. She was allowed to briefly call her family Thursday night. Yuzik, 38, has worked for a number of publications including the Russian version of Newsweek.She authored two books including "Beslan Dictionary", which is based on testimony from survivors of the 2004 Beslan school massacre that claimed more than 330 lives, more than half of them children.

Protests, Blood…What's Happening in Iraq?
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
At least 31 Iraqis were killed so far in clashes between protesters and security forces in Iraq– these were the first protests that lead to casualties from more than a year.
Why Are Iraqis Protesting?
After two years of defeating ISIS, a great proportion of Iraqis are living in a deteriorating situation despite the fact that Iraq is an oil-country. The security condition enhanced compared to the past years but the destroyed infrastructure hasn’t been fixed yet, also jobs are scarce.
Youths are blaming the corrupt leaders, saying that they don’t represent them.
Why Did the Situation Deteriorate?
Following consecutive wars throughout years with neighboring countries, UN sanctions and the sectarian war, the victory over ISIS in 2017 was a signal that Iraq is entering a stage of peace and becoming free. Also, oil output increased to record levels. However, the infrastructure is exhausted and the building of cities - devastated by war - didn't commence yet. Further, some groups remain armed in the streets. Corruption continued since Saddam Hussein’s term and was reinforced under the sectarian parties that emerged after ousting him.
Who Triggered the Protests?
The protests don’t seem to be organized by a political group – at the beginning of this week, calls on social media have mounted for protesting. The turnout was huge and it shocked the security forces. The two main reasons for the popular anger: the shortage of state services and the lack of job opportunists.
Will Protests' Scope Widen?
It depends on the way the government and security bodies handle the situation. If more protesters are killed then this would increase people’s anger.
Will the Government Meet Protesters’ Demands?
It promised to enhance job opportunities for Iraqis in which Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi pledged to provide job opportunities for graduates – he also issued instructions to Iraq's Minister of Oil and government authorities that 50 percent of the staff should be Iraqis in upcoming contracting with foreign firms.

Baghdad Clashes Mount as Top Shiite Cleric Endorses Iraq Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Clashes intensified Friday in Baghdad between protesters and police as Iraq's Shiite spiritual leader urged authorities to heed the demands of demonstrators who have rallied in the capital and other cities for four straight days. The endorsement from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is revered among Iraq's Shiite majority, prompted celebratory gunfire from protesters and piled new pressure on Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi as he battles to quell the intensifying unrest that has left dozens dead. Many had been waiting for a signal from Sistani in his Friday prayer sermon, read out by representatives in Shiite holy places across Iraq, before deciding whether to join protesters in defying the daytime curfew in force in Baghdad and other cities. The premier has appealed for patience from the young unemployed who have formed the mainstay of the protests, saying his not yet year-old government needs more time to implement reforms.Sistani retorted that the government needed to take "clear and practical steps" and act now "before it's too late" to address popular grievances. Otherwise, he warned, the protests would intensify and demonstrators will "simply come back even stronger". The government "must do what it can to improve public services, find work for the unemployed, end clientelism, deal with the corruption issue and send those implicated in it to prison", Sistani said, listing some of the grievances. But despite his appeal, a curfew and an internet blackout, Iraqis thronged the iconic Tahrir Square on Friday, clashing with police, AFP reporters said. Police opened up with a barrage of gunfire and reporters said they saw several people hit by bullets, some in the head and the stomach. "We will continue the movement. We heard Adel Abdel Mahdi, his speech was disappointing and we reject it totally," said protester Adel Abdel Hadi, who had come to Baghdad from the southern city of Basra. Samer, another protester, said he was "not impressed" even by Sistani's comments. "I had hoped for more. The religious establishment should be a source of support, with one word they could have brought the government down. I see the speeches of Mahdi and Sistani as the same," he said. After Sistani's sermon, parliament announced that it would dedicate Saturday's session "to examining the demands of the protesters".
- 'Reject and condemn' -
Protests first broke out in Baghdad on Tuesday and have since spread across the Shiite-dominated south. They are unusual because of their apparent spontaneity and independence in a country where rallies are typically called by politicians or religious figures. At least 37 people have been killed, including four police, with hundreds wounded in four days, medical and security sources said. Sistani voiced dismay at the mounting death toll. "There are attacks on peaceful protesters and security forces which we reject and condemn," he said. Sistani's message is a huge blow to Abdel Mahdi's government. The top cleric has repeatedly acted as final arbiter of the politics of Iraq's Shiite community, which dominates the government. In his first public address since Tuesday, Adel Mahdi had asked for more time to implement his reform agenda in a country plagued by corruption and unemployment after decades of conflict. "There are no magic solutions," he said.
- 'Lethal force' -
Riot police have unleashed water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets and live fire to clear the streets of protesters, who amassed despite curfews and an internet blackout across three-quarters of Iraq since Wednesday. On Friday, Abdel Mahdi gave his full support to the security forces, insisting they were abiding by "international standards" in dealing with protesters. He described the clashes as "the destruction of the state, the entire state", but refrained from directly addressing protesters' demands. As protests and clashes gained in intensity, many Baghdad shops and petrol stations remained shuttered Friday.
In a residential area near the protest site, crowds gathered to buy vegetables and fruit, with one shopkeeper saying the price of tomatoes, grapes and other greens had risen threefold. Northern and western provinces that were ravaged in the 2014-2017 war against the Islamist State group have remained relatively quiet.
The tensions prompted authorities in neighboring Iran to call on citizens planning to take part in a major Shiite pilgrimage in Iraq this month to delay their travel "until conditions ease." The United Nations and Amnesty International urged Iraqi authorities to respect the right of peaceful assembly. "We are worried by reports that security forces have used live ammunition and rubber bullets in some areas, and have also fired tear gas canisters directly at protesters," Marta Hurtado, spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, told reporters in Geneva. Amnesty International's Middle East research director Lynn Maalouf condemned the use of "lethal and unnecessary force". An internet blackout was a "draconian measure... to silence protests away from cameras and the world's eyes," she added.

Paris Insists On 'Opportunity of Negotiations' Between Washington, Tehran
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Despite the failure of the great efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and earlier in Biarritz, on the occasion of the G7 summit, to provide the ground for a meeting between the US and Iranian presidents, Paris is still hoping that time allows such an encounter. France remains convinced, according to its sources, that the plan put forward by Macron, which was “accepted by the United States and Iran is still valid” and that it “constitutes a realistic basis” to return to the negotiating table, whether in the framework of bilateral US-Iranian talks, or within a broader context as demanded by Tehran. “We consider that these initiatives, which didn’t succeed, are still on the table and it is up to Iran and the United States to seize (them) in a relatively short amount of time because Iran has announced new measures to reduce its commitments to the Vienna accord in November,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Wednesday. European diplomatic sources in Paris said that reaching the beginning of next month without making any progress “will be very critical for Paris, London and Berlin,” because those capitals “will have to declare a position on Tehran and the fate of the nuclear deal, which they have continued to defend until now.”The sources added that Iran, which has deployed advanced centrifuges of the fourth and sixth generation, “will have additional capabilities to enrich uranium to a high degree” unrelated to the current 4.5 percent, which enables it to produce one kilogram of low-enriched uranium per month. It is noteworthy that the three capitals, according to consistent information, warned Tehran that its continued violation of the agreement will prompt them not only to abandon the deal, but also to activate the mechanism for the settlement of disputes stipulated in the said agreement, which the three European countries have so far refrained from resorting to in order to leave the door open to negotiations.

Sanctions Paralyze Goods' Imports via Iranian Ports
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
More than 20 ships carrying around one million tonnes of grain are stuck outside Iranian ports as US sanctions create payment problems and hamper the country’s efforts to import vital commodities, sources directly involved in the trade said. Trading companies such as Bunge (BG.N) and China’s COFCO International have been hit by payment delays and additional costs of up to $15,000 a day as the renewed US restrictions stifle the processing of transactions, trade sources said. According to Reuters, food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies are exempt from sanctions Washington re-imposed after US President Donald Trump said he was walking away from a 2015 international deal over Iran’s nuclear program. But the US measures targeting everything from oil sales to shipping and financial activities have deterred several foreign banks from doing any Iranian business, including humanitarian deals such as food shipments. The few remaining lenders still processing Iranian business face multiple hurdles to facilitate payments as financing channels freeze up.
Six Western and Iranian sources said the situation was contributing to the cargoes being held up for more than a month outside Iran’s biggest ports for goods, Bandar Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas. The ships are carrying cargoes including soybeans and corn mostly from South America, the sources said. The grain vessels are also visible through ship tracking data. “There are no restrictions on humanitarian business, but you can’t get paid for it,” one European source said. “You can be waiting for months to get a payment.”“There is nervousness among traders about making more sales to Iran before the backlog (of ships) is cleared,” said another source. A senior Iranian port official, who declined to be named, told Reuters there had been problems since US sanctions were imposed on its financial system in November 2018. “What has changed is that now the number of banks, traders that are staying away from doing business with Iran is increasing,” the official said.
Separate US sanctions imposed in September on Iran’s central bank - following attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that US, UK, France, Germany and Saudi Arabia blamed on Tehran - have added to difficulties with transactions. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated last month that Iran’s total cereal stocks in 2019 would total 5.1 million tonnes, falling to 4.8 million tonnes in 2020, versus 9.9 million tonnes in 2016. Trade sources said Iranian ports were also struggling to process ships due to a lack of available berths. Of the vessels still anchored, at least 20 dry bulk ships were waiting outside Bandar Imam Khomeini, Refinitiv data showed. A further two vessels had managed to discharge their cargoes after waiting for weeks, the data showed. Separate data from shipping intelligence platform MarineTraffic showed a similar number of ships stationary for more than a month. A separate Iranian government official confirmed that ships were waiting but declined to give details. Trade sources said Turkey’s Halkbank (HALKB.IS) - one of the main banks that Iran has relied on for such humanitarian trade - had not been able to process payments fast enough because of the complexity of the process and in some cases did not complete transactions with suppliers.
Suppliers have been left with additional costs, known as demurrage, of up to $15,000 a day as they wait to unload. Trade sources said US agribusiness group Bunge and China’s COFCO International were among the companies affected, together with smaller Turkish and Iranian suppliers. Bunge spokesman Frank Mantero said: “While we don’t comment on or confirm commercial contracts, Bunge exports agricultural commodities in accordance with all applicable legislative frameworks.”Two sources said the increasing difficulties had prompted US agribusiness company ADM (ADM.N) to halt trading with Iran since August. Trade sources told Reuters in December that Bunge and rival US group Cargill as well as other suppliers had halted new food supply deals to Iran due to payment issues. Cargill said in a statement: “In certain countries where international sanctions exist, we provide that food using the humanitarian exception for medicine and food.” A US Treasury spokesperson said Washington designated Iran’s central bank under its counter terrorism authorities, adding that the broad exceptions to the sanctions such as for humanitarian trade that once applied to transactions involving the central bank no longer applied.

US, Turkey Conduct Third Joint Patrol in Northeast Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The US-led coalition said it has conducted the third joint patrol with Turkey in northeastern Syria. The patrol went ahead as planned on Friday, according to the coalition. Washington said the deal reached with Ankara in August aims to address Turkey´s security concerns, the Associated Press reported.
Ankara views Syrian Kurdish fighters as an extension of a Kurdish insurgency within Turkey and wants them away from the shared border, calling it a "safe zone."However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted as saying on Thursday that his country does not think its efforts with the US to form the safe zone will yield the results it wants and is ready to take action itself. For his part, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in a phone call that Ankara would end its work with the United States on establishing a “safe zone” if Washington stalled on the issue, Akar’s ministry said. “If there is stalling or delaying, we are fully determined to end this work,” he was quoted as saying, Reuters reported. US and Turkish troops have so far carried out half a dozen joint air missions over the zone in northeast Syria.

Riyadh Says Huthi Offer of Truce in Yemen 'Positive'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Saudi Arabia gave a "positive" response Friday to a truce offer from Huthi rebels in Yemen and called for its implementation. Since 2015, Riyadh has led a military coalition in support of Yemen's internationally recognized government against the Huthis, who are backed by Iran.
The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, most of them civilians, according to humanitarian organisations, and left Yemen faced with what the UN terms the world's worst humanitarian crisis. "The truce announced in Yemen is perceived positively by the kingdom, as this is what it has always sought, and hopes it will be implemented effectively," vice defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman wrote on Twitter. On September 21, the Huthis announced they were ready to make peace with Riyadh, later repeating their offer despite continued Saudi-led coalition air strikes. Saudi Arabia has said it would judge the Huthis on their "actions and not by their words". On Monday, Huthi rebels freed 290 prisoners under an exchange that was part of a de-escalation accord struck in Sweden in December 2018. Prince Khalid also accused Iran of exploiting the situation in Yemen and "evading responsibility for their terrorist acts". The Huthis claimed responsibility for attacks on September 14 against two key Saudi oil installations, that temporarily knocked out half of the OPEC giant's production. Riyadh and Washington, however, blamed Iran for the attacks, a charge denied by Tehran.

New Talks over Nile Waters Kick Off in Sudan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Irrigation ministers of three key Nile Basin countries are meeting in Sudan´s capital, seeking to resolve differences over Ethiopia´s soon-to-be-finished Blue Nile dam, which Cairo claims threatens its water supply. The spokesman of Egypt´s irrigation ministry, Muhamed El-Sebai, said the ministers of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia were meeting Friday for two days in Khartoum to discuss Ethiopia´s $5 billion project, which is set to be Africa´s largest hydraulic dam. Egypt fears the dam could reduce its share of the Nile River, which serves as a lifeline for the country's 100 million people, the Associated Press reported.
Ethiopia has roughly the same population and says the dam will help its economic development. Egypt seeks Sudan's support in the dispute.The last round of talks held in Cairo last month failed to make progress.

Tunisia: Second Round of Presidential Race Commences
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The campaign of the 2nd round of presidential elections commenced Thursday in Tunisia and will last till October 11. Professor Kais Saied, the independent candidate who garnered 18.4 percent, and Nabil Karoui, who garnered 15.58 percent of votes, will be in the campaign. However, Karoui remains in prison for charges of money-laundry and tax evasion. Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections ( ISIE) demanded Karoui be allowed televised interviews so he can communicate with voters. ISIE's member Anis Jarboui said that the authority finds itself in an embarrassing situation because candidates don’t have the same chances as Karoui remains in prison. For his part, Saied said that some electoral ballots exploited his picture and denied having anything to do with it. While Karoui commenced his campaign with a stern message to Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, accusing Ennahda of misleading -- he attributed his imprisonment to rejecting the political alliance with Ennahda. Karoui also accused it of standing behind the political assassinations, hinting at leftist opposition leader Chokri Belaid and deputy Mohamed Brahmi in 2013, the killing of a number of security guards by terrorist groups, and assisting terrorist networks in sending Tunisians to hotbeds outside the country. Hatem al-Maliki, spokesman for presidential candidate Nabil Karoui, stated that he sent a message to ISIE, the president, and national organizations to urge equal opportunity among candidates. Maliki said it is likely that the outcome of the 2nd round of elections will be appealed and unrecognized internationally because of the lack of equal opportunities among competitors. Karoui is facing judicial and political pressures after researcher Sharan Grewal published the news of Karoui sealing a deal with a Canadian firm specified in lobbying and granting it $1M to help him win the elections.

Sisi Reviews With Armed Forces Anti-Terrorism Strategy
Cairo - Walid Abdul Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
A meeting of the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, chaired by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, reviewed on Thursday a number of files pertaining to efforts to protect the pillars of Egyptian national security and the fight against terrorism, in cooperation with various state institutions.
During the meeting, Sisi congratulated the Egyptian people and their armed forces on the occasion of the anniversary of October’s glorious victories. Meanwhile, Major General Mahmoud Tawfiq, the Egyptian minister of Interior, noted that despite the security achievements in Egypt, the threat of terrorist organizations was still lurking. “The Egyptian people have become aware of the conspiracies against the homeland,” Tawfiq said, addressing his aides and assistants at the ministry’s headquarters in Cairo. “The cohesion of the Egyptian people to protect their homeland and unite behind its political leadership, armed forces and police is what makes us always ready to bear the sacrifices and face all challenges decisively,” he added. He also underlined the need to “intensify security efforts in various areas, face any manifestation that constitutes a violation of the law, and capture criminals,” in addition to the launching of “large-scale security campaigns targeting gangs and bearers of unlicensed arms.”The Interior minister asked the security leaders to follow up on field developments in order to find solutions and face emergency security situations and to ensure their forces’ readiness to protect important and vital facilities and religious sites.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04- 05/2019
Analysis/It’s Tempting to Connect the Dots, but Iran-Israel War Doesn’t Seem Imminent
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: لا حرب وشيكة بين إيران وإسرائيل
Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 04/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79122/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%88%d8%b4%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Revolutionary Guards claim that it thwarted an Israeli assassination attempt is questionable, but Israel-Iran tension is increasing
It’s very tempting to connect all the dots into one straight and sure line: The prime minister calls for national unity and hints at an expected escalation with Iran; the president describes “an economic-security need that we haven’t known for many years;” Iran claims that it thwarted an assassination attempt against Gen. Qassem Soleimani and in the background there are again assessments about war getting closer, certainly with Yom Kippur around the corner.
Still, it’s doubtful that these things are connected to one another so simply and clearly. Indeed there is increasing tension between Israel and Iran, but it’s been building up over time and isn’t necessarily related to the assassination attempt, which no one knows when or if it happened, and who might be behind it.
At the same time, President Reuven Rivlin is continuing his efforts to persuade Likud and Kahol Lavan to agree on an outline for a unity government. Rivlin is using the security argument to achieve this, but he isn’t referring to an immediate military development; he’s focusing on the Israel Defense Force’s budgetary problems and its links with a difficulty in implementing its multiyear plan. The situation in the Middle East is particularly complicated, but there are no clear signs on the horizon pointing to an immediate war that would upend all political calculations.
The announcement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on Thursday was unusual. This wasn’t an anonymous leak, but an official declaration by the head of the group’s intelligence division, claiming that Iran had uncovered an Israeli-Arab plot against Soleimani. The announcement included several details: It claimed that the Iranians had succeeded in intercepting a killer cell, which sought to plant 500 kilograms of explosives under a prayer site built in memory of Soleimani’s father, during a religious ceremony.
Broadly speaking, the plan is reminiscent of Operation Bramble Bush, the Israeli attempt on the life of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein which was disrupted by a training accident that killed five soldiers in 1992, known as the Tze’elim Bet disaster. Still, it’s hard to assess the reliability of the claims. There are plenty of people who would like to see Soleimani dead, including the Saudis. According to reports, Soleimani has escaped death at least twice – during the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and in an operation attributed to Israel and the United States in which Hezbollah chief of general staff Imad Mughniyeh was killed in Damascus in 2008.
The announcement, as well as an unusual and detailed interview aired with the general this week on a website associated with the Iranian leader, appear to be part of an attempt to continue to build a myth around Soleimani. In the background, the Iranians do indeed have accounts to close with Israel. Dozens of attacks against Iranian targets in Syria have been attributed to Israel, most recently in Iraq and one case in Lebanon as well. So far, Iran’s attempts at revenge have been thwarted.
Meanwhile, however, Iran has had a convincing success in its attack on the Saudi oil facilities in mid-September, a feat for which it paid no diplomatic price. On the contrary, the U.S. administration has stepped up its courtship attempts to achieve direct negotiations between the two countries; France is trying to mediate between the parties and Saudi Arabia has avoided any military reprisals. Iran’s operational success could tempt it to try something similar against Israel, perhaps from Iraqi territory, as the head of Military Intelligence’s research division, Brig. Gen. Dror Shalom, has warned in an interview with Israel Hayom.
All these factors require special vigilance in Israel, with possible developments on the nuclear front in the background. Between the lines of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset on Thursday, one could detect his disappointment with the recent moves by President Donald Trump, who has made a dramatic U-turn in recent months in his attitude toward the Iranians.
The Middle East is very far from being a stable region. Robert Malley, who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations and is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, said in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine this week that conditions are riper for a regional war than they have been at any other time in recent years. These are harsh words, but they do not translate into an immediate risk of war that would involve Israel.
In the background, talks on a possible unity government are being held. When Rivlin spoke about to a serious economic-security challenge he was referring to an increasing concern among top IDF officers. It’s not enough that the multiyear plan formulated by Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi is far from being implemented, the funding for the last year of his predecessor Gadi Eisenkot’s plan, known as Gideon, has a budget shortfall. The gaps are estimated at 10 billion to 15 billion shekels for next year. Under a scenario of a narrow government (which doesn’t look very relevant), meeting the demands of smaller parties joining the government could make it impossible to close this funding gap.
That’s why Netanyahu hinted in his address that he can’t figure out how to overcome these financial gaps and that a unity government would have to raise taxes. Will these remarks by Rivlin and Netanyahu, along with the increasing tension with Iran, suffice to persuade Kahol Lavan to accept Netanyahu as a governing partner? If it depended solely on Benny Gantz, it might have happened. The former chief of staff’s body language conveys a clear lack of enthusiasm for the possibility that somehow he might still be named prime minister. But his party co-leaders are vehemently opposed to the idea for now. It seems as if the economic distress being conveyed by Kochavi, with Rivlin’s help, hasn’t spurred any change in their positions.

The Hat, the Turban And the Cap: Which Can Save the Mullahs?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
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As Hassan Rouhani’s presidency drifts towards what promises to be less than a brilliant end, speculation is starting about the next phase in the power struggle that has been a permanent feature of the Khomeinist regime from the start.
Some Iran-watchers argue that the regime’s true backbone consists of the military-security establishment using the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei as a frontman. While that view reflects an aspect of the Iranian reality, it would be wrong to conclude that the military chiefs would remain content with the present arrangement. The nature of political power, in any system, is that those who secure a share of it always want more.
Iran’s military chiefs are no exception. Casting themselves as the regime’s true protectors and claiming a purity associated with untrodden snow, they have always whined about the alleged corruption and incompetence of the mullahs and bureaucrats who have run the show since 1979. What is new is that today they are whining louder and louder while advancing their claim as the fittest candidates for ruling the nation.
The military chiefs, more specifically the top brass of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have always promoted their ambitions through the vast media empire they control inside and outside Iran. What is new is that today they are advancing their bid for power directly and more openly. The latest occasion for that came last Monday during the General Congress of the IRGC’s commanders and political and religious commissars. While the last congress, held in 2016, was a low-profile event, the gathering last Monday received top billion from the state-controlled media, at times assuming the character of a political party’s convention.
The congress put the limelight on two generals with thinly disguised political ambitions. The keynote speech was reserved for Chief of Staff Major-General Muhammad Baqeri who is regarded as the intellectual of the bunch while Major-General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of the Quds (Jerusalem) Corps, was cast as second fiddle.
Baqeri’s speech, lasting more than 50 minutes, seemed to pursue three key objectives.
The first was to persuade the people that Iran was not heading for a war and that the military-led by him was strong enough to cope with any eventuality. Remarkably, his analysis seemed to exclude any role for the Islamic Republic’s political authorities. All that Iran needed to be safe from foreign invasion was the “Supreme Guide” and his military machine.
Baqeri’s second objective was to send a conciliatory signal to Iran’s real or imagined enemies, more particularly the United States. He did this in two ways: by claiming that as far as establishing Iran’s influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen was concerned it was mission accomplished and that Tehran had no intention of opening new fronts or intensifying its presence in the region. He said Iran “recognizes its responsibility towards regional security and stability, playing a key role in that domain, having no intention to {practice} enmity or harbor any thought of aggression, fomenting insecurity and war.”
In a hardly coded message, Gen. Baqeri added that Tehran was “trying to foster calm through regional cooperation.”
To hammer in his conciliatory theme further, the general called for coping with the US-imposed sanctions “with patience and magnanimity.”
Baqeri’s third objective was to present the IRGC as a major player in Iran’s economic life, claiming that its controversial presence in thousands of businesses was in public interest. He implied that while the IRGC as an economic actor was snow-white, the public sector controlled by the government was ridden with corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency. The implication was that if the IRGC were in charge of everything, most of Iran’s current economic and social problems would disappear.
As for Gen. Soleimani, a master of public relations, he spoke in his signature hyperbolic style, claiming to have defeated the American army and revealed that the US was nothing but a scarecrow. He shared one key theme with Gen. Baqeri: the claim that the political leadership, that is to say, Rouhani and his team, had failed in almost everything and that their sell-by-date had long passed.
Does this mean that we now have two generals testing the waters for a direct bid for power?
Unlike many so-called “developing nations”, Iran does not have a tradition of the military intervening in politics let alone running the government.
The Khomeinist regime has seen presidents. Of those, three were “hat-wearing” ones (Mukalla in Persian). However, only one, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, managed to survive for two full terms. The first one Abol-Hassan Banisadr had to flee to exile after a year to save his skin. The second, Muhammad-Ali Raja’i, was blown into pieces in a terrorist operation just weeks after being sworn in. The remaining four presidents have all been turbaned (muam’mam). Two had black turbans, signifying descent from Fatimah, the daughter of Prophet Muhammad. The other two had white turbans, indicating their pure Iranian origin.
Some observers, including a few among the regime’s loyal opposition, believe that it is time to set aside both the “hat” (kolah) and the “turban” and give the military “cap” a chance to save the beleaguered regime.
Over the past 40 years, several generals, active or retired, have thrown their military cap into the ring in the hope of winning the presidency. However, none managed to make much of an impression, let alone reaching the run-off stage.
With the mullahs and their bureaucratic associates largely discredited, the military may have a better chance this time, at least within the Khomeinist movement.
In fact, informal groups promoting the idea of a military president for the Khomeinist regime are already taking shape. An exile group in Florida, led by a former senior diplomat, is campaigning for Gen. Soleimani who has also even celebrated by a BBC Persian commentator as “a Sufi commander”. Another group led by an Ira-American University professor in New Jersey is campaigning to draft Gen. Baqeri with the help of several retired IRGC officers.
The rationale behind these nascent campaigns is that it would be better to let those who hold real power in Iran also exercise it within a transparent and legal context.
This may or may not be a sound argument. However, I think the Khomeinist regime is fast entering a phase in its historic development in which no one would be able to save it from these inner contradictions. The hat, the turban, and the cap are of little use when the head is rotten.

Who's Afraid of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14911/scandinavia-crime
"Most immigrants are not criminals, but when the immigrant population is overrepresented in almost every crime category, then there is a problem that we must dare to talk about." — Jon Helgheim, immigration policy spokesman for the Norwegian party Fremskrittspartiet (FrP).
"In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing...." — Det Goda Samhället ("The Good Society"), Invandring och brottslighet – ett trettioårsperspektiv ("Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective"). All statistics for the report were supplied by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention.
Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts described by crime statistics, the problems are only going to become more intractable -- to the point where they might not be solvable at all.
In Sweden, discussing who is behind the current crime epidemic in the country has long been taboo. Such a statistic has only been published twice by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ), in 1996 and in 2005. In 2005, when BRÅ published its last report on the subject, "Crime among people born in Sweden and abroad," it contained the following note:
"Critics have argued that new results can be inflated, taken out of context and misinterpreted and lead to reinforcing 'us and them' thinking. There is every reason to take such risks seriously. However, BRÅ's assessment is... that a knowledge-based picture of immigrant crime is better than one based on guesses and personal perceptions. The absence of current facts about the crime among the foreign-born and their children facilitates the creation and consolidation of myths. If crime is a problem in certain groups of the foreign-born, then the problems do not disappear unless you highlight them and speak openly about them. A correct picture of the extent and development of the problems should instead be the best basis for analyzing conditions and improving the ability of all residents to function well in Sweden, regardless of ethnic origin."
Back then, apparently, the authorities still appreciated facts.
Twelve years later, in January 2017, however, Minister of Justice Morgan Johansson flatly refused to publish statistics about the ethnic origins of criminals in Sweden. According to Johansson:
"[Studies] have been done both in Sweden in the past, and there are countless international studies that all show much the same thing: That minority groups are often overrepresented in crime statistics, but when you remove socio-economic factors, it [the overrepresentation] almost completely disappears. So the political conclusions that I need to make, I can already make with existing international and Swedish studies."
Johansson, who in addition to being Minister of Justice also serves as Minister for Migration and Asylum Policy, was not alone in his views. When Swedish Television asked the political parties in the Swedish parliament, the majority said that they did not think such a statistic was needed.
This summer, however, in the continued absence of any forthcoming public statistics on such an extremely important public issue, a private foundation, Det Goda Samhället ("The Good Society") took it upon itself to produce these statistics in a new report, Invandring och brottslighet – ett trettioårsperspektiv ("Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective"). All the raw data in it were ordered from and supplied by BRÅ. The raw data from BRÅ can be accessed here.
According to the new report by Det Goda Samhället:
"For the first time now, more crimes -- in absolute terms -- are committed by persons of foreign background than by persons of Swedish origin... The most crime-prone population subgroup are people born [in Sweden] to two foreign-born parents."
The report concludes:
"In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing... During the first of the investigated periods, 1985-1989, persons with a foreign background accounted for 31 percent of all crimes. During the period 2013-2017, the figure had risen to 58 percent. Thus, people of Swedish origin now account for less than half, 42 per cent, of the total crime in Sweden, despite constituting 67 per cent of the population surveyed."
In 1996, in its first report on the issue, BRÅ disclosed (p. 40) that, "The general picture from foreign studies of immigrants' children's crime is that they have a higher crime rate than first-generation immigrants. That is not the case in Sweden". According to the new report, it is the case now, and that is perhaps the greatest indictment against Swedish integration policies of the past 30 years: the policies clearly do not work.
Another notable conclusion of the report is the increase in crimes committed by foreign-born non-registered persons in Sweden -- these include illegal immigrants, EU citizens and tourists. The crimes this group has committed have increased from 3% in the period 1985-89 to 13% in 2013-17.
The report has largely been ignored by the Swedish press and political echelons, apart from a few exceptions, such as the local newspapers Göteborgs-Posten and Norrköpings Tidningar.
In Norway, recently, a report about the overrepresentation of immigrants and their descendants in crime statistics was ordered from Statistics Norway, by Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), which forms part of the Norwegian government. "We had known that immigrants are overrepresented in these statistics, but not [by] so much" said FrP immigration policy spokesman Jon Helgheim.
"For example, if we use the unadjusted figures... Afghans and Somalis are charged five times more for violence and abuse than Norwegians. Adjusted for age and gender, the overrepresentation is almost triple... Most immigrants are not criminals, but when the immigrant population is overrepresented in almost every crime category, then there is a problem that we must dare to talk about".
According to Dagbladet, FrP has, for years, been calling for detailed statistics on crimes perpetrated by immigrants and children of immigrants. In 2015, the party commissioned data from Statistics Norway, but the agency refused to compile crime statistics based on immigrants' country of origin.
Two years later, Statistics Norway published research showing that immigrants were strongly overrepresented in the crime statistics, but the report was not detailed enough, according to FrP, which ordered a new report, now available. According to Dagbladet, the new statistics "show that immigrants from non-Western countries are overrepresented in 65 out of 80 crime categories. In 2017, 7.1 per cent of Norway's population were immigrants from a non-western country."
According to Dagbladet, the new statistics also show that, "The largest overrepresentation [is] in violence and abuse in close relationships."
"Non-Western immigrants and their descendants are charged with family violence eight times as often as the rest of the population. In total, 443 persons were charged per year on average during the period 2015-2017, [and] 35 per cent (155) of those charged were from a non-western country or had a non-Western background. Only half of those charged with abuse in close relationships were what SSB [the statistical bureau] calls the rest of the population... Africa, Asia, Latin America, Oceania except Australia and Europe outside the EU and the EEA are considered non-Western countries."
According to Dagbladet, men from the Palestinian Authority and Somalia are charged with violence and abuse three times more often than Norwegian men.
FrP has been accused by its political opponents of ordering these statistics specifically for municipal elections that took place in Norway on September 9, 2019. Dagbladet asked Helgheim whether using these statistics was "cynical." Helgheim responded:
"No, it's not cynical at all. This is very relevant for the citizens to know something about. It would be a failure of FrP not to do everything we can to inform voters of what are realities and facts. Our opponents constantly criticize us for pulling the immigration card... I can find no explanations other than that those who do not want this to be known also do not want to know about the consequences of immigration to Norway."
In Denmark, unlike Sweden and Norway, the publication of such statistics in itself is fairly uncontroversial. The Danish statistical bureau, Statistics Denmark, publishes them as a matter of fact every year and they are publicly available to everyone.
According to one of the latest such reports, "Immigrants in Denmark in 2018," as reported by Berlingske Tidende in April:
"The figures show that crime in 2017 was 60% higher among male immigrants and 234% higher in male non-Western descendants than the entire male population. If one takes into account, for example, that many of the descendants are young, and Statistics Denmark does so in the report, the figures are 44% for immigrants and 145% for descendants, respectively. If further corrected, for both age and income, of immigrants and descendants from non-western countries, the figures are 21% and 108%".
As for the nationality of the criminal migrants, Berlingske Tidende reported:
"At the top of the list are male Lebanese who, as far as [their] descendants are concerned, are almost four times as criminal as average men, when [the figures are] adjusted for age. [That is] sharply followed by male descendants from Somalia, Morocco and Syria. The violence index is 351 for descendants from non-western countries. They are 3.5 times more violent than the population as a whole. Descendants from Lebanon have an index of violent crimes of 668 when corrected for age."
Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts that these statistics describe, the problems are only going to become more intractable -- to the point where they might not be solvable at all.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Saudi Aramco Attacks… Saudi Gains, Iranian Losses
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
It is indisputable that the Iranian attack on the vital Aramco oil installations is a serious political, military, and economic escalation, in addition to being direct aggression against international law and then against Saudi Arabia.
The history of indirect confrontation between Iran and the world is now perhaps defined in two phases: the pre-attack phase and the post-attack stage.
But nearly two weeks after the “foolish” aggression, as described by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, one can say that Saudi Arabia has made several gains out of the Iranian irrationality, while the Iranian regime is increasing its losses day after day, and dives deeper into greater isolation.
ran, after exploiting a gray area to embellish the misfortunes of its actions, finds itself today under terrible and unprecedented international pressure.
The Saudi gains are diverse. The following are the four main ones:
First, the Kingdom has proven - to all those who contradicted it - the veracity of its political stance on the Iranian regime, which was translated into severing relations with Tehran and placing it within the framework of a system that cannot be repaired diplomatically. Second, the Kingdom reaffirmed that it is the only country capable of securing oil supplies to the world under any circumstances, and that the security and stability of the global economy could not be fulfilled without the Saudi footprint. Immediately after the Iranian attack on Aramco, oil prices rose by about 18%, the highest in a single day since 1988, before the Kingdom stabilized markets at an astounding speed. Third, the world has seen, with proofs and evidence, which state is rational, avoids crises, extinguishes fires, and respects international law, and which is reckless and does not hesitate to bring the whole world into futile wars and endless tensions.
The fourth gain is Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic ability to rally world support in its favor. More than 80 countries have strongly condemned the incident, calling it an aggressive and unjustified terrorist attack.
What about the Iranian losses? Needless to say, they are too many to be counted. But let us cite the most important four:
First, Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia but found itself facing an international confrontation, not only with the state that it attacked. The aggression hit the artery of the global economy, not the Saudi economy, as Tehran imagined.
Second, the international isolation of Iran is unprecedented. Even during the annual meetings of the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was looking for any meeting, whatsoever, with any of the presidents and heads of states.
The third loss is the decrease of European support, which used to represent Iran’s protective shield against the policy of maximum pressure exerted by the United States. For the first time, the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain have blamed Iran for the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The fourth is that the world is no longer talking about sanctions imposed on Iran, but has welcomed further measures; not to mention the conviction that the campaign of maximum pressure against the Iranian regime is the least that can be done to stop its destabilization of world security and stability.
Had Iran realized the foolishness of such aggression against Saudi Arabia and the amount of losses it would sustain, it would have never done it. The world stands ready to accept any measures whatsoever against the Iranian regime instead of the military confrontation pushed by Tehran.
Even such a confrontation - if it happens in the future - will no longer be between Iran on one hand, and Saudi Arabia and its US ally on the other, but between Iran and the world.
So what are the major gains achieved by the Kingdom and the significant losses incurred by Iran?! It is the unfortunate end Iran has never expected.

Impeachment inquiry will actually stabilize US policy
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 04/2019
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House in Washington, DC, for his annual visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Oct. 4, 2019. (AFP)
The decade I spent in the snake pit in Washington taught me one basic overriding lesson: Outsiders perennially overrate the decision-making processes of the US. Whether friend or foe of America, at some deep level most outside observers simply give the US more credit than it is due in terms of how its policies are made. Or, to put it in Shakespearean terms, they believe America operates like “Macbeth” — with ruthless, conniving, highly rational players calling the shots — rather than “Hamlet,” wherein mistakes, misunderstandings and ineptitude tend to explain things. The wry explanation of Deep Throat, the key informant in the chilling political thriller “All The President’s Men,” gets it exactly right in explaining how Washington truly works: “Forget the myths you’ve read about the White House. These aren’t very bright guys and things got out of hand.”
In line with this overrating of the American policymaking process, outside analysts assume that, in the heat of domestic upheaval, any embattled White House will rationally act to change the subject; starting a war (“wagging the dog”) or manufacturing a crisis to change the subject from whatever scandal is buffeting them. But the actual historical record definitively proves otherwise.
For the simple bureaucratic truth is that US administrations find it very hard to concentrate on two major priorities at the same time. If they are obsessed with their immediate survival, it is not the time to venture into risky policymaking waters. Instead, any White House under siege tends to work on autopilot, merely perpetuating the policies they had been undertaking at the time the major crisis hit. The Iran-Contra affair saw President Ronald Reagan pull back from any new initiatives in Latin America or the Middle East (the locus of the crisis). While he historically continued the process of dramatically winding down the Cold War, the basic policy had been put in place long before Iran-Contra made headlines. Likewise, President Bill Clinton undertook no new major foreign policy initiatives while his impeachment battle raged; intent as he was on merely surviving. Like a tortoise, administrations pull themselves into their policymaking shells for protection, attempting nothing risky as they simply do not have the intellectual bandwidth for any new, adventurous initiatives.
Trump will be bloodied by the coming impeachment ordeal, but he will not be removed from office.
As was true for Reagan and Clinton, it is highly likely that Donald Trump will survive the ordeal of domestic scandal. The politics of impeachment at present are simple: The Democrats have the votes in the House of Representatives (in which they have a majority) to impeach the president, but have nowhere near the required support in the Senate, where the Republicans have a majority. Two-thirds of the upper chamber is required to convict and remove a chief executive. Presently, the Democrats have 47 votes in the Senate, putting them an impossible 20 seats short.
The Republican Party is now wholly in thrall to Trump. While it is true that many of the Republican Senators personally dislike the bombastic president, the Republican base adores him. A late September Quinnipiac survey found Trump with an astounding 88 percent approval rating among the Republicans polled — the second-highest percentage for any GOP leader since modern polling began in the 1920s.
All of this analysis clearly leads to a number of important political risk conclusions about the US. Trump will be bloodied by the coming impeachment ordeal, but he will not be removed from office. US foreign policy (and domestic policy for that matter) will be on autopilot for the coming year at least, as a besieged White House will hunker down and survive, but will be cautious, pursuing the Jacksonian course that Trump has already laid out, eschewing new divergences from already-established American policies.
In terms of the Middle East, that means that the Trump White House’s return to America’s traditional post-1979 regional stance — with Iran as the ultimate foe and Israel, Egypt, and the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula as its primary allies — will remain unchanged. In such a domestic political environment, it is unlikely that America will support military action against Iran, but it is also unlikely that Washington will seriously continue its halting flirtations with Tehran, which up until now have yielded nothing practical.
Instead, look for Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” toward Iran to be continued, as any radical deviations from it — be they toward out-and-out military conflict or toward a more dovish stance on Tehran — are disregarded as being too risky, and taking too much attention away from the mere fact of political survival. For, oddly enough, serious modern American domestic political crises have the unthought-of benefit of seriously constraining US decision-making, leaving the US following its established inclinations in terms of foreign policy. This allows for a more static, but also more stable and understandable, US to be assessed by the rest of the world.
In our present age of chaos and with much of the world unsure of what to make of the Trump phenomenon and its turn toward Jacksonianism, this will amount to a benefit in terms of understanding an America that so often of late has seemed unknowable.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

EU security crucial to Macron’s Russia initiative
Mark Leonard/Arab News/October 04/2019
French President Emmanuel Macron is one of those leaders who want to bend the arc of history. Having upended French politics, he has secured positions for his preferred candidates at the head of the European Commission and the European Central Bank, and is now trying to improve Europe’s relationship with Russia. French officials are comparing Macron’s Russia strategy to US President Richard Nixon’s opening up of China in 1972. But Macron’s diplomatic overture is more like Nixon in reverse. Rather than wooing China in order to contain the Soviets, Macron wants to “ease and clarify (Europe’s) relations with Russia” in order to prevent Moscow from cozying up to China. In so doing, he hopes to secure Europe’s control over its own future. Macron launched his bid for new security architecture in typically grandiose fashion, mirroring the urban planner Georges-Eugene Haussmann’s project to redesign Paris in the 19th century. His first move was to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in France’s Fort de Bregancon before the August G7 summit in Biarritz. But the French ministers charged with implementing the plan have since turned it on its head.
Now, rather than starting with a top-down agenda, they are trying to build European security from the bottom up, while pursuing improved relations with Russia one brick at a time. The French road map focuses on five key areas: Disarmament, security dialogue, crisis management, values, and common projects.
In late August, Macron delivered a speech outlining his vision of a system of “concentric circles” comprising varying degrees of European and Eurasian integration. Such an arrangement would have to secure NATO and EU member states’ borders, allow for a more productive relationship with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, and offer ways to manage regional conflicts, not least the one in Ukraine. The timing of the initiative makes sense. Like Macron himself, Ukraine’s recently elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, created a political party out of nothing and came to power on the promise of sweeping away a discredited ancien regime. More to the point, Zelensky has made resolving Ukraine’s security situation a top priority.
Macron believes that Russia’s gravitation toward China is at least partly the result of Western mismanagement. He is not naive about the Kremlin’s territorial aggression and election interference, but any country in a position to pose such threats to Europe, he believes, must be engaged face to face. As one French official explained to me: “What is true of Iran and North Korea is also true for Russia. We won’t be able to influence it and lead it to more responsible behavior if we just hide behind a wall of sanctions.”
The EU will never become a global player in the 21st century if it continues to be divided and boxed in by other powers.
Adding further urgency to Macron’s efforts is US President Donald Trump, who has confirmed France’s Gaullist suspicions about America’s unreliability as a guarantor of European security. As the US escalates its conflict with China, it inevitably will pay less attention to Europe and the surrounding neighborhood (the ex-Soviet Union, the Middle East, and North Africa). Worse, the French fear that Trump might pursue a grand bargain with Russia, leaving the EU hemmed in between the US and China.
Macron’s biggest concern is Europe itself. The EU will never become a global player in the 21st century if it continues to be divided and boxed in by other powers. In Macron’s view, recasting Europe’s relationship with Russia is the first step toward securing European sovereignty. “If you don’t have a seat at the great power table,” one French official tells me, “it’s because you’re on the menu.” To be sure, the French understand other Europeans’ support for the sanctions imposed on Russia following its annexation of Crimea and incursion into Eastern Ukraine; but they fear the flimsiness of Europe’s broader security policy. Ideally, the EU should pursue a two-pronged approach to Russia, combining sanctions and NATO’s deterrence with engagement. The French complaint is that there are no meaningful channels for such engagement, and that sanctions do not address the overall threat that Russia poses. “What would happen to European unity,” French officials wonder, “if Moscow made a move on Ukraine or Syria and some member states decided to block sanctions renewal?” Most likely, it would spell the end of the EU’s Russia policy.
Still, Macron’s initiative raises many questions. Whether Putin has any interest in resolving the Ukraine conflict remains to be seen. And, even if Europe is capable of detaching Russia from China, it is unclear whether the Trump administration would stand by and let the European initiative play out.
But the biggest questions are on the European front. Many Central and Eastern European countries worry that they will be second-class citizens within Macron’s framework of “concentric circles.” Others fear that Macron will sell out Ukraine by forcing it to settle the conflict on Russia’s terms. And it doesn’t help that Macron launched his initiative without first consulting other Europeans, many of whom are already anxious about America’s waning commitment to EU security.
French officials pointed out that Nixon didn’t consult US allies before embarking on his mission to China. But Nixon’s credibility as a security hawk was unquestioned, whereas France is regarded suspiciously by some in Central and Eastern Europe, who fear that their interests might be sacrificed in a neo-Gaullist attempt to claim a spot on the world stage. If Macron is to succeed, he will have to prove that he is committed to the sovereignty and security not just of Central and Eastern Europe, but also of ex-Soviet countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. He will also have to pursue deeper collaboration with the Nordic and Baltic states, as well as with the relevant EU institutions and the new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. Above all, Macron’s initiative must create a credible platform for a common approach to security. If it is seen as favoring some countries over others, it and its author will end up on the menu, rather than in the history books.
*Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations

Is the far right on the ropes in Europe?
Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 04/2019
Last week’s parliamentary elections in Austria have left some suggesting that the far right in European politics, which has enjoyed a fair amount of electoral success in the last couple of years, is now on the ropes.
The recent Austrian elections occurred after the collapse of that county’s coalition government. Due to its makeup, this government was always fragile. Although it was led by the mainstream center-right People’s Party, it was propped up by the far-right Freedom Party. The government did not take long to unravel.
In recent months, the Freedom Party got embroiled in not one, but two major scandals involving dodgy Russian money, suspected embezzlement of political party funds, and the alleged misuse of the Austrian intelligence service. This scandalous behavior by the Freedom Party meant that the coalition was untenable. The government collapsed in May.
The resulting elections saw the People’s Party surge, while the Freedom Party’s support fell to 16 percent from 26 percent in the 2017 election. Many of the Freedom Party’s supporters from 2017 either switched to the People’s Party or did not vote.
But for those who think that Europe has now reached the beginning of the end of far-right political parties gaining ground, a word of caution is needed. Considering the magnitude of the scandals faced by the Freedom Party, it is extraordinary that it still took 16 percent of the vote and came third. If 16 percent is the floor of the Freedom Party’s support in Austria even after all the scandals, it will likely make a future electoral comeback.
There are a few other examples debunking the idea that the far right is dead in Europe. In Italy last month, the coalition government of the left-wing populist Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega party (formally known as the Lega Nord) collapsed after months of infighting.
At the time, polling showed that if snap elections were held in Italy, Lega would actually increase its share of the vote. So a new coalition government was formed by center-left parties normally at odds with one another to avoid risking this possibility.
After the European Parliament elections in May, the far right increased its seats from 36 in 2015 to 73. In April, elections in Estonia brought the far-right People’s Party into a coalition government, and it now holds key Cabinet positions. Last month’s local elections in Germany saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) make big gains too.
The rise of the political fringe in Europe represents a complete failure of sensible, responsible and moderate political voices from the mainstream to come together to address the many social and economic problems faced by many Europeans.
The resilience of the Freedom Party in the Austrian elections, the fear of the Lega surging in the polls, and the rise of the Estonian People’s Party hardly show the far right in Europe beating a retreat. The far left has seen electoral success. The Communist Party of Greece, Die Linke (The Left) in Germany and the Portuguese Communist Party, to name a few, have enjoyed recent success at the ballot box.
The rise of the political fringe in Europe represents a complete failure of sensible, responsible and moderate political voices from the mainstream to come together to address the many social and economic problems faced by many Europeans.
The rise of these fringe and extreme parties did not happen in a vacuum. In some of the countries that have seen the rise of far-right or far-left political parties — such as Italy, Spain and Greece — it is quite obvious how these movements have been able to take root. When you have the economic devastation that has been seen over the past decade, in southern Europe for example, there are political consequences. During the height of the eurozone crisis, countries such as Spain and Greece had youth unemployment hovering around 50 percent. Even today, Greece and Spain suffer from 40 percent and 32 percent youth unemployment respectively. Italy’s gross domestic product is still smaller today than it was in 2008 at the onset of the financial crisis. People’s discontent bleeds over into the political process.
Many people who have been left behind economically, and fear that jobs are being taken by migrants or that globalization has treated them unfairly, take refuge among the political fringe. Populist and extremist parties on the political left and right take advantage of people’s desperation.
In many ways, the far right and far left eventually meet on the ideological spectrum. Big government, massive government spending, more government control of your life, and willingness to appease aggressors are all hallmarks of both the far right and far left in Europe today.
Russia benefits greatly from Europe’s social and political divisions. This is the last thing the continent needs right now. Although Moscow normally gets the blame for the rise in far-right parties in Europe, the situation is not so simple. For the most part, Russia is not responsible for the rise of far-right parties in Europe, but it certainly takes advantage of the situation.
Moscow’s fingerprints have been seen backing far-right groups in France, Italy and Austria, to name but a few countries. In the case of all three, there have been suspected financial connections with Russia. At a time when Europe needs to be united in the face of Russian aggression, the last thing it needs is political and societal divisions fueled by the Kremlin. The recent electoral shortcomings of the Freedom Party in Austria does not mark the end of the far right. Until Europe gets its house in order economically and politically, the political fringes will remain a significant part of political life across the continent. The rise of extremism in politics, whether on the left or the right, should be a concern for policymakers. After all, if you drive too far to the left or too far to the right, you often end up in a ditch.
*Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey

Turkish parties clash over Syria strategy

Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 04/2019
Since the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923, and particularly under the rule of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), today’s main opposition party, Turkey’s indifference toward the Middle East was best understood with an old Turkish proverb: “Neither sweets from Damascus nor the face of the Arab.” There are many more proverbs indicating Turkey’s negative perception of the Arab world and Syria in particular. Turkey’s relations with Syria have historically harbored potential conflict. The two immediate neighbors even reached the brink of war in the late 1990s. From the Hatay problem to the water question, from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to the ongoing Syrian conflict, Turkish-Syrian hostility has increased step by step, with the exception of a period of friendly relations in the first decade of this century.
Particularly during the years of the secular CHP’s rule, Turkey distanced itself from the region culturally, psychologically and politically. The CHP’s approach to the region has not changed much.
Last week, the CHP held an International Syria Conference in Istanbul. According to the party’s vice chairman, Unal Cevikoz, who spoke to a Turkish media outlet, representatives of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government were invited to the conference. Officials from Iran, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were also invited. Cevikoz said the participants from the Syrian regime were not named in order to prevent any problems in their visa applications or travel to Turkey.
Speaking at the conference, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu stated that establishing a direct dialogue between Ankara and Damascus would be the easiest way to reach a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Syria. He also put forward an initiative to create a peace and cooperation organization that would include Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
However, in 2012, Kilicdaroglu wrote in the Wall Street Journal, asserting that the party views Assad as a brutal dictator who has no place in the future of Syria, and that the refugee problem should not be used to polarize the Turkish population. It would not be wrong to say that the CHP’s initial reaction to the Assad regime and the massive influx of refugees from Syria was balanced and sensible. It is rare, but at that time the CHP was thinking along the same lines as the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) stance of providing Syrians with humanitarian assistance.
The CHP has been criticizing the government’s Syria policy for a long time and this stance was reiterated by Cevikoz.
However, just a year later, in 2013, a parliamentary delegation from the CHP met with Assad in Damascus. The delegation posed smilingly to cameras and shook hands with Assad. The AKP government criticized the visit, saying it was not possible to understand what the CHP was trying to achieve with such an action. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been one of the staunchest opponents of Assad since the latter responded to mass protests with violent interventions in 2011, sparking the ongoing conflict in the country and leading to a mass refugee influx to Turkey.
Today, there are three major points that the CHP and AKP disagree on regarding Syria, while there is maybe only a single issue that they seemingly agree on. The first issue of contention between the parties is the approach toward Assad. Second is the issue of the refugees’ presence in Turkey as, while the government praises itself for its refugee policy, the CHP adopts an anti-refugee rhetoric. Third is Turkey’s offensive foreign policy toward Syria. The only issue they agree on is the fight against the PKK. Kilicdaroglu said in his speech at last week’s conference that Turkey’s struggle against terror beyond its borders is a right guaranteed by international agreements and engagements, adding that Ankara should continue its counterterrorism efforts.
The AKP’s Yasin Aktay slammed the CHP conference on Syria in his column published in the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper. “Assad and his supporters were the only ones invited to the conference, where Turkey was held responsible for almost all the problems in Syria. Additionally, the message given through the conference was that, if a solution is wanted, everything should continue where it left off, as if nothing happened with Assad,” he wrote.
The CHP has been criticizing the government’s Syria policy for a long time and this stance was reiterated by Cevikoz, who said: “Cutting relations with the Assad government was the Turkish government’s biggest mistake since the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011.” However, this begs the question: While Turkey is able to establish indirect relations with the regime through Russia and Iran, why should it directly talk to Assad after the regime’s many atrocities? One expert wrote sarcastically in a tweet: “The Assad regime cannot even establish relations with itself without Russia’s approval.”
The response to the Turkish government’s Syria policy is not to solely criticize without leaving room for debate, but also to propose rational and realistic policy recommendations. That should be the primary task of the opposition. Thus, after all, a “utopian” policy based on establishing ties with Assad cannot and will not work. However, a more realistic policy carried out with the main actors, such as Russia, Iran and Western countries, which could keep Assad in check to a certain extent, could serve Turkey’s long-term national interests.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

War and peace, and a morning workout, at Russian Energy Week
Frank Kane/Arab News/October 04/2019
Saudi Arabia, eager to promote all aspects of life in the Kingdom, could learn a lesson or two from the Russians when it comes to staging a business conference.
The organizers of Russian Energy Week (REW) in Moscow manage to combine business, history and culture with a challenging aerobic workout — and that was just the accreditation process.
First, the business. REW is Russia’s play for pre-eminence in the energy forum space, a crown hitherto held by CERA Week in Houston, Texas, sometimes dubbed the “Oilman’s Davos.”
It has a fair chance of success I reckon. Russia is the world’s biggest oil producer, still just ahead of the US, and Moscow is a great city. Any fun thing you can do in Houston you can do just as well in Moscow, I imagine.
The Russian capital oozes history and culture. I have been here several times, but always find something new and unexpected. Still fresh in my memory is the row of gigantic black steel crosses on the road from Sheremetyevo airport, representing the furthest line of Nazi advance in 1941, which chilled me on my first visit there decades ago.
This time, the new discovery was the Manege, the early 19th century building where the REW is held. It was originally an indoor riding academy built by Czar Alexander I, conqueror of Napoleon, so his cavalry could keep in top shape in the depths of winter. It later became a concert hall and art gallery.
Surrounding the Manege are some of Moscow’s best-known historical sites. You catch a glimpse of golden domes from its windows — the nearby towers of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, another rebuilt masterpiece after the original was destroyed by Stalin in one of his bouts of Soviet atheism.
Moscow oozes history and culture. I have been here several times, but always find something new and unexpected.
You have to walk a bit from the Manege to see the archetypal Russian church, the magnificent St. Basil’s Cathedral at the far end of Red Square, but it is worth the walk. Past the statue of Soviet general Georgy Zhukov, the man more responsible than any other (including jealous Stalin) for the defeat of Adolf Hitler, past the red granite mausoleum of Lenin, over the cobbles where tanks and intercontinental ballistics roll every year to celebrate Russian military might, you are drawn inescapably to the multicolored onion domes of the ultimate Moscow tourist site. They are mesmerising.
Head back to the Manege, and you can take in the Museum of the Patriotic War of 1812. Less well known than the huge Museum of the Great Patriotic War (1941-45) close by, it is an impressive reminder that you should never, ever invade Russia.
I got to know the smaller museum quite well on the first morning of REW, and this is where the aerobic exercise comes in.
During the energy week, the building doubles as an accreditation center. It’s about a kilometer from the Manege, so that’s not a particularly convenient arrangement — especially when most streets are blocked by surly police officers who order you instead to the underground crossings formed by the Metro stations. By the time I had traveled from the Manege to the museum and back again, I must have done a few kilometers, and was staring to feel a bit footsore, even at nine in the morning.
When the police officer on the barrier looked at my badge and said “need two” before barring my entry, my goodwill failure was imminent. But you don’t really want to protest too loudly to a man carrying an automatic weapon, so off I trudged back to the museum to get the second badge that would enable me to enter the forum. When I finally got there, I collapsed in a seat in the press center, reflecting on the past couple of hours.
There you have the Russian Energy Week experience. War and peace, history and culture, and some rigorous urban exercise — all in a couple of hours before the event got down to business.
• Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai

Iran’s attempt to force the US back to the JCPOA failed miserably
طوني بدران/العربية: فشلت إيران فشلاً ذريعاً في اعادة أميركا إلى الإتفاق النووي
Tony Badran/Al-Arabiya/October 04/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79132/%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84%d8%aa-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d8%b0%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7/

By attacking Saudi Aramco, Iran wanted to force the US to return to the JCPOA nuclear deal. It failed.
The futility of Iran’s attempts to force the US to return to the nuclear deal was evident at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), where US President Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to sanctions as long as Tehran’s “menacing behavior continues.” His words were followed by action when the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and National Development Fund.
It is easy to forget that only a week before, many commentators had claimed not only that talks between Iran and the Trump administration were imminent, but that these talks would likely lead to the lifting of some sanctions. At the time, France was running a play on Iran’s behalf, which involved extending Tehran a $15 billion line of credit, in return for Iran apparently resuming compliance with the nuclear deal it had violated precisely to pressure the Europeans.
It was against this backdrop that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, in an escalation which aimed at forcing the US’ hand.
For months, Iran has been trying desperately to get American sanctions lifted, and to force the US to walk back its decision to leave the JCPOA. It enlisted European mediators to work on the US president, but they were ineffective. Iran is desperate to resume oil sales, which had plummeted since the US’ departure from the JCPOA. The $15 billion credit line proposed by the French was to be guaranteed by Iranian oil, the equivalent of 700,000 barrels per day of future oil sales. In other words, it was a way to allow Iran to “pre-sell” its oil, all while luring the US back into the JCPOA framework. Perhaps as important as the cash windfall was the goal of entangling the Trump administration in talks and preventing future pressure.
Although waiting to see if Trump is replaced by a pro-JCPOA Democratic Party presidential candidate initially seemed like a good strategy to Iran, the expiration of oil waivers in May changed Tehran’s strategic considerations. The expiration of oil waivers meant that Iran could face five more years of crippling sanctions. The Iranians also faced the prospect of Trump shredding the JCPOA once and for all at the United Nations, depriving Iran of promised expiration dates on UN weapons restrictions.
The Iranians therefore moved to another strategy to try and pressure the US, with the belief they could influence Trump’s chances at reelection.
This strategy was put into action shortly after the waivers expired, when Iranian-led militias in Iraq launched an attack on a major Saudi pipeline. Iran then sabotaged and hijacked oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf. Coupled with Iran’s nuclear violations, these actions panicked the Europeans into scurrying to the US to present Iran’s terms. However, it failed to influence the US position.
Iran then upped the ante by attacking Saudi Arabia from its own territory, believing it would force Trump into a corner. By targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil production, Iran thought it could unsettle global markets and raise oil prices, causing an economic downturn which would hurt the US president politically. Tehran calculated that Trump would then be forced into a lose-lose choice which would harm his prospect for reelection. On the one hand, if Washington retaliated militarily, oil prices would increase further and harm Trump’s bid for reelection. On the other hand, if Trump capitulated and accepted Iran’s terms, he would be reneging on one of his signature policies, the withdrawal from the JCPOA.
In other words, Iran wanted to impose the binary of the Obama years: either the JCPOA or war. To that end, Tehran recognized that the proponents of the JCPOA in the US and their communications infrastructure would amplify this binary choice – promoting Iranian blackmail and heightening an overall sense of crisis while the Europeans present sanctions relief and a return to the JCPOA framework as the only alternative to military escalation.
Not only was there no panicked American response, but, despite an initial brief and modest spike in the price of oil, the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia also failed to put a dent in the global energy markets – Aramco quickly restored its oil production and crude prices stabilized within a couple of days. In fact, this has been a key Iranian weakness: all of their sabotage attacks, including the high-risk direct attack from their own territory, have not been able to seriously or sustainably influence oil prices or supply.
Far from capitulating, the Trump administration strategically sanctioned Iran’s Central Bank and National Development Fund, shooting down the French proposal of extending a line of credit to Iran in the process. Even as the French resumed their efforts to set up a meeting between Trump and the Iranian president at the UN, the US made it clear that any meeting would not come with sanctions relief. To underscore this point, following the president’s UNGA speech, the US slapped another round of sanctions on Chinese firms for shipping Iranian oil. Incidentally, even after these latest sanctions were announced, oil prices fell.
The Iranian gambit, in other words, failed. The question now is whether Iran doubles down and stages more attacks on oil infrastructure. Only now, there is a higher risk for Tehran. The US is deploying to Saudi Arabia a Patriot missile battery with 200 support personnel and four Sentinel RADARs (with two more Patriot batteries and one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system on Prepare to Deploy Orders). As a result, there will be more eyes on any major launches from Iran and more overall preparedness. With no more room for deniability, especially for a major attack — which is what Iran would need — the retaliatory options also increase.
By rejecting to pay Iran to negotiate and declining to take the bait of immediate military retaliation, the Trump administration has put itself in a position to do what the Iranians fear most: take its maximum pressure campaign to the UN and invoke the snapback mechanism in UN Security Council Resolution 2231. There are signs the Trump State Department might be considering this option. Recently US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted that the UN should act to prevent the arms embargo lifted by the JCPOA from expiring. The way to do so is the snapback mechanism. The Europeans might still balk. But the US is in a place to influence them, especially if Iran takes additional steps to violate the deal, as it has done recently.
The Trump administration’s response to Iran’s gambit underscored the fact that the Islamic Republic’s blackmail will not succeed in reviving the corpse of the JCPOA. Now it’s time to bury that deal for good.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.