LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 05/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october05.19.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
They went out from us, but they did not belong to
us; for if they had belonged to us, they would have remained with us
First Letter of John 02/12-20/:”I am writing to you, little children, because
your sins are forgiven on account of his name. I am writing to you, fathers,
because you know him who is from the beginning. I am writing to you, young
people, because you have conquered the evil one. I write to you, children,
because you know the Father. I write to you, fathers, because you know him who
is from the beginning. I write to you, young people, because you are strong and
the word of God abides in you,and you have overcome the evil one. Do not love
the world or the things in the world. The love of the Father is not in those who
love the world; for all that is in the world the desire of the flesh, the desire
of the eyes, the pride in riches comes not from the Father but from the world.
And the world and its desire are passing away, but those who do the will of God
live for ever. Children, it is the last hour! As you have heard that antichrist
is coming, so now many antichrists have come. From this we know that it is the
last hour. They went out from us, but they did not belong to us; for if they had
belonged to us, they would have remained with us. But by going out they made it
plain that none of them belongs to us. But you have been anointed by the Holy
One, and all of you have knowledge.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on October 04- 05/2019
Aoun: Lebanon a peace-loving country
Hariri: There is a great effort from the government to get out of the crisis
Hariri, Bassil Hold 'Very Good' Meeting after Rift Reports
Hariri receives new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of Malta
U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon
Gas Stations, Money Changers Threaten Fresh Strikes
Choucair: I Won't Drink Coffee or Tea with Financial Prosecutor
Report: Syria-Lebanon Contact Issue Strains Aoun-Hariri Ties
Lebanon Says Rise in Imports behind Spike in Dollar Demand
Lebanon: Security Forces Arrest 2 Syrians Accused of Kidnaping Lebanese In Turke
Lebanon: Political Divisions Over Privatization of Public Sector
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper, Al
Akhbar
Report: Diplomats Form 'Crisis Cell' to Follow on Lebanon Developments
Jarrah tackles media affairs with Press Syndicate delegatio
Bou Saab tackles latest developments with Bukhari
Army: Syrian referred to court for contacting Israeli enemy
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on October 04- 05/2019
Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as Israel spy. IDF on high alert for
surprise Iran attack
Moscow Summons Iran Envoy over Arrest of Russian Journalist in Tehran
Protests, Blood…What's Happening in Iraq?
Baghdad Clashes Mount as Top Shiite Cleric Endorses Iraq Protes
Paris Insists On 'Opportunity of Negotiations' Between Washington, Tehran
Sanctions Paralyze Goods' Imports via Iranian Ports
US, Turkey Conduct Third Joint Patrol in Northeast Syria
Riyadh Says Huthi Offer of Truce in Yemen 'Positive'
New Talks over Nile Waters Kick Off in Sudan
Tunisia: Second Round of Presidential Race Commences
Sisi Reviews With Armed Forces Anti-Terrorism Strategy
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on October 04- 05/2019
U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon/Associated Press/October 04/2019
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper, Al
Akhbar/Jerusalem Post/October 04/2019
Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as Israel spy. IDF on high alert for
surprise Iran attack/DEBKAfile/October 04/2019
Analysis/It’s Tempting to Connect the Dots, but Iran-Israel War Doesn’t Seem
Imminent/Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 04/2019
The Hat, the Turban And the Cap: Which Can Save the Mullahs/Amir Taheri/Asharq
Al Awsat/October 04/2019
Who's Afraid of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/October 04/2019
Saudi Aramco Attacks… Saudi Gains, Iranian Losses/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al
Awsat/October 04/2019
Impeachment inquiry will actually stabilize US policy/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab
News/October 04/2019
EU security crucial to Macron’s Russia initiative/Mark Leonard/Arab News/October
04/2019
Is the far right on the ropes in Europe/Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 04/2019
Turkish parties clash over Syria strategy/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 04/2019
War and peace, and a morning workout, at Russian Energy Week/Frank Kane/Arab
News/October 04/2019
Iran’s attempt to force the US back to the JCPOA failed miserably/Tony Badran/Al-Arabiya/October
04/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on October 04- 05/2019
Aoun: Lebanon a peace-loving country
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, maintained Friday that "Lebanon is a
peace-loving country which neither produces nor uses landmines.""We exist next
to an enemy, Israel, that uses mines as weapons undeterredly," Aoun said.
"Lebanon is still suffering from the landmines and cluster bombs the Israeli
enemy used in its hostilities on Lebanon during the 2006 July war," he added.
"Lebanon does not oppose joining the Ottawa Treaty on the prohibition of
anti-personnel mines," he underlined, stressing that Lebanon is working hard on
demining its lands. Aoun made these remarks during his meeting at Baabda palace
with Goodwill Ambassador Princess Astrid of Belgium, the Special Envoy of the
Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention or Ottawa Treaty. For her part, Princess
Astrid congratulated Aoun on the UN endorsement of establishing the Academy for
Human Encounters and Dialogue in Lebanon. She also heaped praise on Lebanon's
demining efforts.
Hariri: There is a great effort from the government to get out of the crisis
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri denied that the work on
the 2020 draft budget law has been suspended while waiting for an agreement on
the necessary reforms. He said: “We are working on all files at the same time.
There is a focus on reforms these days, to see what can be included in the
budget.”In a chat with journalists, Hariri described his meeting with Foreign
Minister Gebran Bassil as very good and said: “There is an abnormal attack on
the country. It is true that we have problems, but the government is working to
solve the problems. There is a great effort from the government and, hopefully,
we will get out of this crisis.” Asked if the relationship with Minister Bassil
would be mended, he answered: “Nothing happened to this relationship that needs
to be mended”.
Reforms committee
Earlier, Hariri chaired the Ministerial committee tasked with studying the
economic and financial reforms, in the presence of Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan
Hasbani and Ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Mohammad Fneish, Jamal Jarrah, Mansour
Bteich, Mohammed Choucair, Saleh Gharib, Salim Jreissati, Youssef Fenianos,
Camille Abu Suleiman, Wael Abou Faour, Adel Afiouni and a number of advisors.
After the meeting, Jarrah said: “The Financial and Economic Reform Committee
held its session today under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Hariri. The
Minister of communications explained the situation of the sector, the prospects
to improve the telecommunications situation in Lebanon and his strategic vision
for the future of the sector in Lebanon. After that, we moved to the Public
Procurement Law. The Institut Bassel Fuleihan explained the new law, which takes
into account the highest international standards, and was done at the Ministry
of Finance. The law will be discussed later in detail, approved in the Council
of Ministers and sent to Parliament”.Question: What is your response to the
request of the financial prosecutor to interrogate you in the communication
file? Jarrah: Of course, Judge Ali Ibrahim asked to hear me when I was a deputy.
I consulted Speaker Nabih Berri and he told me not to go. After I became a
minister, Judge Ibrahim asked to hear me so I visited him and talked to him
about the file at the time, but now the situation has changed a little. Today
there are procedures that we must follow, and there is a law that fosters the
relationship between ministers, the judiciary and the public finance
prosecution. We have nothing to hide. When a parliamentary commission of inquiry
was put forward, we said that we are ready for such a committee, provided that
it would be public and that all media would be present. We have no objection to
this, in order to inform the Lebanese public about all the rationale and put an
end to these daily accusations by responsible people, who tell the public
opinion that there is corruption and squander in the Ministry of communications.
Hence, if there is a parliamentary commission of inquiry, let it be public in
order to stop these talks, and speak the language of numbers, at a time when no
one in the country wants to speak in the language of numbers. Everyone wants to
launch theories according to his political mood. There are numbers and major
achievements in the Ministry of Communications that Minister Mohammed Choucair
is pursuing. Whoever wants to discuss numbers, data and facts is welcome.
Whoever wants to talk about politics, let him talk alone. In the previous period
we did not respond to anyone, but from now on we will respond to all.
Question: Isn't the financial prosecutor entitled to ask to hear a minister?
Jarrah: Legally not. Even the financial prosecutor, when he called he ministers,
he talked about it in the media, which is illegal. Second, it is necessary to
take the opinion of the Prosecutor General in this matter, and this did not
happen. For our part, when the procedure is legal, we will consider the subject.
Hariri, Bassil Hold 'Very Good' Meeting after Rift Reports
Naharnet/October 04/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign
Minister Jebran Bassil held talks Friday at the Center House, following tensions
between their two parties. Describing the meeting with Bassil as “very good,”
Hariri told reporters that his relation with the FPM chief remained intact
despite the tensions between the FPM and al-Mustaqbal Movement. Earlier in the
day, informed sources told LBCI TV that the meeting between the two men was “excellent.”“The
meeting confirmed once again that there is no problem between the two sides and
it involved ordinary coordination on several files,” the sources added. “The
meeting kickstarts a series of contacts that the head of the bloc (Bassil) will
carry out to invigorate governmental work with the aim of finalizing the 2020
state budget based on the needed reformist principles and implementing the
electricity plan,” the sources said. They added: “The meeting with Hariri was
fruitful and the atmosphere is more than excellent and there was an exchange of
ideas in order to push things in the right direction.” A meeting between Bassil
and cadres of Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal Movement was called off Tuesday amid
tensions between the two parties. MP George Atallah of the FPM’s Strong Lebanon
bloc said “Mustaqbal officials asked Prime Minister Saad Hariri to call off the
seminar following tweets by Strong Lebanon bloc MP Ziad Aswad. “Hariri agreed to
their request,” Atallah added, in remarks to MTV. “According to our information,
the Mustaqbal officials demanded a clarification about Aswad’s tweets in order
to reconsider the meeting with Bassil,” Atallah added.
Hariri receives new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of
Malta
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received this evening the
new Ambassador of the Sovereign Order of Malta, Bertrand Besancenot, who said:
“The meeting was an occasion to discuss the cooperation between the Order of
Malta and Lebanon that is old and productive and covers all the territory. We
want to help all those in need regardless of their beliefs or ethnic
affiliations, and this cooperation is well conducted with the health service
institutions in Lebanon and with the various communities”. He added: “Lebanon is
a model country where cooperation and coexistence between different groups are
strong, despite all the difficulties. Pope John Paul II already described this
country as a message to the world and this is the truth. The meeting also
focused on the upcoming official visit of the President of the Order of Malta to
Lebanon between November 4 and 9, which will be an occasion to meet with
Lebanese officials, visit all centers where the Order of Malta is active, and
sign of a number of cooperation agreements. The visit is important to strengthen
the exemplary cooperation between us, appreciated by everyone”.
U.S. Sanctions 'Squeezing' Hizbullah in Lebanon
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 04/2019
The conflict between Iran and the U.S. that has created tensions throughout much
of the Middle East is now also being felt in Lebanon, where Washington has
slapped sanctions on the Iran-backed Hizbullah and warned they could soon expand
to its allies, further deepening the tiny Arab country’s economic crisis.
The Trump administration has intensified sanctions on the Lebanese group and
institutions linked to it to unprecedented levels, targeting lawmakers for the
first time as well as a local bank that Washington claims has ties to the group.
Two U.S. officials visited Beirut in September and warned the sanctions will
increase to deprive Hizbullah of its sources of income. The push is further
adding to Lebanon's severe financial and economic crisis, with Lebanese
officials warning the country's economy and banking sector can’t take the
pressure.
"We have taken more actions recently against Hizbullah than in the history of
our counterterrorism program," Sigal P. Mandelker, undersecretary for terrorism
and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury, said in the United Arab
Emirates last month.
Mandelker said Washington is confident the Lebanese government and the central
bank will “do the right thing here in making sure that Hizbullah can no longer
have access to funds at the bank.”
Hizbullah, whose Arabic name translates into "Party of God," was established by
Iran's Revolutionary Guard after Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The
group, which enjoys wide support among Lebanon's Shiite community, runs
institutions such as hospitals, clinics and schools.
Today, it is among the most effective armed groups in the Middle East with an
arsenal more powerful than that of the Lebanese army, and has sent thousands of
its fighters to Syria to back President Bashar Assad's forces in that country’s
civil war. Hizbullah and its allies have more power than ever in parliament and
government and President Michel Aoun is a strong ally of the group.
Hizbullah has acknowledged the sanctions are affecting them, but it says it has
been able to cope with sanctions imposed by the U.S. for years. The group,
however, warned that it is the job of the Lebanese state to defend its citizens
when they come under sanctions simply because they belong to the group, are
Shiite Muslims, or are Hizbullah sympathizers.
In July, the Treasury Department targeted two Hizbullah legislators, Amin Sherri
and Mohammad Raad, in the first such move against lawmakers currently seated in
Lebanon's parliament. A month later, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets
Control sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank for what it called “knowingly facilitating
banking activities.” The bank, which denied the charges, was forced to close
afterward.
Neither Sherri nor Raad responded to requests for comment from The Associated
Press.
So far, all the figures who have come under sanctions have been either Hizbullah
officials or Shiite Muslim individuals who Washington says are aiding the group.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group will “study well our
alternatives” now that the U.S. is targeting banks that Hezbollah does not own
or deal with, as well as rich individuals and merchants simply because of their
religious affiliation.
“We said it in the past that when we are subjected to injustice we can be
patient, but when our people are subjected to injustice we should behave in a
different way,” he said.
Nasrallah said the state and the government should defend Lebanese citizens. In
an apparent reference to the Lebanese central bank that implements U.S.
sanctions, Nasrallah said: “Some state institutions should not rush to implement
the American desires and orders this way.”
Walid Marrouch, an associate professor of economics at the Lebanese American
University, says Lebanon’s economy is 70% dollarized and since Lebanon is using
this currency, Beirut has to abide by (U.S.) laws.
“We’re already living in a crisis and it will only make it worse,” he said of
sanctions and if Lebanon decides to stop abiding by U.S. Treasury Department
orders.
Antoine Farah, who heads the business section of the daily Al-Joumhouria
newspaper, wrote that if Hizbullah's desires turn out to be orders, "we will be
facing a confrontation such that no one would want to be in our shoes."
"If Hizbullah decides to fight America with the money of the Lebanese we
guarantee a quick collapse and staying at the bottom for a long time, like
Venezuela," he wrote.
During a visit to Beirut, David Schenker, the U.S.’s assistant secretary of
state for near eastern affairs, said Washington will designate in the future
"individuals in Lebanon who are aiding and assisting Hizbullah, regardless of
their sect or religion."
Schenker did not elaborate in his interview with local LBC TV but local TV
stations said Washington could start targeting Christian allies of the group,
which has 14 members in parliament and three Cabinet ministers, including the
Health Ministry.
Health Minister Jamil Jabbak, who is not a member of Hizbullah but is believed
to be close to the group's leader, was not granted a U.S. visa to attend the
U.N. General Assembly in late September.
Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea
visited Lebanon last week and a U.S. Embassy statement said he would "encourage
Lebanon to take the necessary steps to maintain distance from Hizbullah and
other malign actors attempting to destabilize Lebanon and its institutions."
At the end of his visit, Billingslea met a group of journalists representing
local media and told them that the U.S. Treasury was posting a $10 million
reward for anyone who provides "valuable information on Hizbullah's finances,"
according to the Daily Star.
He said the main goal of the U.S. Treasury "was to deprive Hizbullah of all
financial support, whether from Iran or through any other means." Billingslea
said Iran used to send the group $700 million a year, adding that U.S. sanctions
on Iran have "diminished considerably" the cash inflow.
Imad Marmal, a journalist close to Hizbullah who has a talk show on the group's
Al-Manar TV, wrote that the group wants the Lebanese state to put forward a
national plan to face the "American siege" that will end up affecting not only
Shiites but the country's economy generally. He added that those who are being
targeted by the sanctions are Lebanese citizens, whom the state should protect.
Hizbullah "is not going to scream in pain as the United States is betting,
neither today nor tomorrow and not even in a hundred years."
Gas Stations, Money Changers Threaten Fresh Strikes
Naharnet/October 04/2019
The syndicate of fuel distributors and owners of fuel stations and tankers on
Friday decided to stage a strike on Monday “unless the ongoing contacts result
in solutions that satisfy those who work in the sector,” in connection with the
dollar rationing crisis in the country. The syndicate of money changers for its
part threatened that the entire sector might stage an open-ended strike or close
shops permanently if the “unjust accusations” against it continue, stressing
that its work is “legal.”The central bank on Monday adopted a measure that would
allow importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine to obtain dollars at
the official bank rate to pay for key imports. But stocks purchased prior to the
measure and ambiguity surrounding the mechanism and responsibilities will likely
prolong the crisis for some time. Local media said last week banks and money
exchange shops were rationing dollar sales in the country, where Lebanese pounds
and U.S. dollars are used interchangeably in everyday transactions. Lebanon has
had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place
since 1997. Central bank governor Riad Salameh last week denied that the country
was facing a currency reserve crisis, as exchange rates on the parallel market
reached 1,600 Lebanese pounds last week. It has also become difficult to
withdraw dollars from ATMs for Lebanese lira account holders or to convert large
sums in banks.On Thursday, Salameh said that increased imports could have raised
the demand for dollars in the country, noting this has pushed money changers to
charge higher exchange rates. In a televised speech, Salameh also raised doubts
over whether increased imports were being used for local consumption, following
reports of smuggling to neighboring Syria.
Choucair: I Won't Drink Coffee or Tea with Financial
Prosecutor
Naharnet/October 04/2019
Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair announced Friday that he will not
meet with Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim for a testimony over suspected
wrongdoing in the telecom sector. “I will not appear at the office of the
financial prosecutor, neither for coffee nor for tea, and if he wants to meet
I’m ready to host him at my house or office,” Choucair told reporters.“Let them
interrogate all telecom ministers who served between 1992 and today,” he added,
lamenting that the file has been “politicized.”“Let no one try to outsmart or
intimidate us,” he said.
“Neither I nor Minister Jamal al-Jarrah will attend, and if he wants to come he
is welcome,” Choucair went on to say. Noting that Ibrahim needs a permission
from the state prosecutor to summon ministers, Choucair stressed that he is “not
a suspect.”“I said it once and I reiterate: if he wants to interrogate
ministers, he has to do that with all the former telecom ministers, from Butros
Harb to Jamal al-Jarrah, Marwan Hamadeh, Nicolas Sehnaoui and others, whereas
the selection of a number of ministers from them is a political issue. This is
unacceptable and is rather a farce,” Choucair added. Harb meanwhile announced
that he has met with the financial prosecutor at the latter’s request. “Judge
Ibrahim asked me about the work mechanisms at the Telecom Ministry and the role
and legal status of the OGERO authority and its legal relation with the Telecom
Ministry, in addition to the work of mobile network operators and the
modifications that were introduced to the contracts of operating the two mobile
networks when they were extended in the year 2012,” the ex-minister added.
Report: Syria-Lebanon Contact Issue Strains Aoun-Hariri
Ties
Naharnet/October 04/2019
The President’s remarks about restoring contacts between Lebanon and Syria was
reportedly the trigger for the economic crisis in Lebanon and for straining ties
between President Michel Aoun and PM Saad Hariri, the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper
reported on Friday. According to the daily, informed sources said: “The
President's remarks about communicating with the Syrian regime lies behind the
security financial and economic crisis witnessed in Lebanon, which spread to
allies of the political settlement, that is between Aoun and Hariri and to their
political parties," the Free Patriotic Movement and al-Mustaqbal. Amid fresh
tensions between the two parties, a Tuesday meeting between FPM chief Jebran
Bassil and cadres of al-Mustaqbal Movement has been called off. The same sources
said the tension was exacerbated by the belief of Aoun’s team that Hariri was in
the picture of proposing to communicate with Damascus as a pressure on the
Americans and Europeans and everything that links the return of the displaced
Syrians to the political solution in Syria. But after the presidential speech in
New York, some have “raised the voice of rejection, which necessitated Hariri to
reconsider the matter,” said the sources. Coordination between Lebanon and Syria
is a contentious issue in Lebanon. Some of Lebanon's political parties support
it, while others including Hariri, categorically reject it and blame the Syrian
regime for the assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri.
Lebanon Says Rise in Imports behind Spike in Dollar Demand
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Lebanon's central bank governor said Thursday that increased imports could have
raised the demand for dollars in the country, noting this has pushed money
changers to charge higher exchange rates. In a televised speech, Riad Salameh
also raised doubts over whether increased imports were being used for local
consumption, following reports of smuggling to neighbouring Syria. "We don't
know if all of these imports are for domestic consumption," he said. Lebanon has
had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place
since 1997. But last week, petrol station owners and flour producers who pay
importers and suppliers in dollars complained that they had to resort to much
higher rates from money changers because banks were not meeting their demand.
Exchange rates on the parallel market reached 1,600 Lebanese pounds last week
and it has become almost impossible to withdraw dollars from ATMs or to convert
large sums in banks. "Since June, the demand for (dollar) banknotes has
increased," Salameh said, adding that shipments of dollar notes used by money
exchange houses has "doubled." "This (increased) demand could be domestic, from
petrol station owners, flour mills, or pharmacies," who have to pay importers
and suppliers in dollars, he said.
He explained that the spike in demand is "because of an increase in imports on
certain goods", adding that it has led to a discrepancy of 1 to 3 percent
between the exchange rate offered by money changers and the fixed price at
banks. The central bank on Monday adopted a measure that would allow importers
of petroleum products, wheat and medicine to obtain dollars at the official bank
rate to pay for key imports. "Banks that issue letters of credit for the
importation of petroleum products (petrol, fuel oil and gas), wheat and medicine
will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure the value of such credits in
US dollars," read the decision published by the National News Agency. On
Thursday, Salameh said that commercial banks must ensure the central bank credit
lines are used exclusively to purchase imports for domestic consumption. "This
is an essential matter, not just for Lebanon's monetary (situation) but also its
reputation" and its place in the globalised economy, he added. In August,
Lebanon's Blominvest Bank said oil imports "more than doubled" in the first
quarter of 2019. It said "the smuggling to Syria amid the rationing of oil in
the country" could be among the factors leading to the hike.
Lebanon: Security Forces Arrest 2 Syrians Accused of
Kidnaping Lebanese In Turkey
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The Lebanese Internal Security Forces announced on Thursday arresting two
persons in Beirut accused of kidnapping Lebanese in Turkey in return for a
ransom.
The ISF said it also arrested the mastermind of the gang, whose members are all
Syrians. In a statement issued on Thursday, the ISF said, “On Sept. 24, two
Lebanese were kidnapped by an unidentified gang while on a trip to Turkey. The
two captured were later released in return for a ransom of $16,000.”
It said the sum was delivered to the abductors through exchange firms in Lebanon
and Turkey. After being informed about the incident, the ISF launched an
investigation into the case in Lebanon and Turkey.
According to the statement, the ISF members uncovered the identity of the person
who received the ransom. The man is a Syrian, born in 1989, and works in an
exchange firm owned by another Syrian. After monitoring and observation
operations, a patrol from the ISF’s Intelligence Bureau was capable to arrest
the two Syrian in Corniche al-Mazraa, in Beirut on Sept. 27. The two men
possessed in liquidity a sum of L.L.200 million (around $132,000), $34,000 and
1,950 British pounds, in addition to bank checks.
They confessed having received the ransom from the two Lebanese who were
kidnapped in Turkey last month through an exchange office they deal with in
Turkey.
Lebanon: Political Divisions Over Privatization of Public
Sector
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Disagreements re-surfaced among Lebanon’s political leaders over the
privatization of state institutions, mainly those that incur huge treasury
losses, such as electricity and water. The head of the Progressive Socialist
Party (PSP), former MP Walid Jumblatt, warned against “suspicious capitals
seizing the public sector under the pretext of privatization, especially amid
political chaos in Lebanon.” In a tweet on Thursday, Jumblatt said it would be
“shameful” that “arms dealers or other opportunists” control the public sector
under the pretext of privatization, in light of the current political chaos.
PSP secretary-general Zafer Nasser said that resolving the economic crisis in
Lebanon should begin with bold decisions and reforms in the structure of the
state. “Jumblatt knows that the problem of electricity is a major cause of the
deficit, as well as squandering and corruption in other sectors,” he noted.
“We smell secret deals and agreements under the table under the title of
reform,” he remarked, adding: “Selling the public sector to the private sector
means that the interests of the Lebanese will be in the hands of people, and
this complicates the problem and does not solve it.”
Financial and economic expert, Dr. Ghazi Wazneh, does not hide the existence of
real fears of privatization, especially in electricity, water, and
telecommunications. In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said that the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were asking Lebanon not
rush with such a decision, because the country has no experience in
privatization, which has shown its failure in some other countries. Wazneh
stressed the importance of public offerings, where the citizens are allowed to
subscribe to electricity and telecommunications shares, “so that every citizen
buys one share, and the share sold does not exceed 35 percent of the value of
the company, and then no one becomes the decision-maker.”“This proposal is
mentioned in the paper submitted by Prime Minister Saad Hariri,” he said. Dr.
Charbel Kordahi, economic adviser to the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which
headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, underlined the need to "distinguish
between privatization, which means the sale of economic activity by the
government to the private sector in full, and the partnership between the public
and private sectors, which will allow the private sector to become a partner in
profits and a shareholder of capital."
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in
Lebanese newspaper, Al Akhbar
Jerusalem Post/October 04/2019
The newspaper obtained a classified document from an undisclosed source claiming
that Saudi Arabia proposed two options to the United States on how to topple the
Islamic Republic – Nimrod and Spider.
Classified plans to topple Iranian regime detailed in Lebanese newspaper
After previously disclosing a detailed plan in 2017 accusing Saudi Arabia and
the United States of attempting to overthrow the Iranian government, the
Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar released further details elaborating on their
previous claim.
The newspaper obtained a classified document from an undisclosed source claiming
that Saudi Arabia proposed two options to the US on how to topple the Islamic
Republic – “Nimrod” and “Spider.”
Spider focused on using software to sway political opinions within the
government in the hopes of bringing about a regime change by 2020.
The other plan, Nimrod, was aimed at internationally isolating Iran by operating
and increasing the number of Persian-language media programs – in order to
feature and focus on content approved by the Kingdom, according to Al Akhbar.
Saudi Arabia currently owns and manages the London-based Persian-language TV
channel Iran International.
Iran’s embassy in Britain filed a lawsuit against the channel last September due
to the support given by the program for the terrorist group, whose live gunman
attacked the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp during a military parade in Ahvaz
in the southwestern province of Khuzestan that month, which killed 26 and
wounded 69 others. “The Iranian embassy in London has taken its official lawsuit
to ‘Ofcom’ [asking it] to investigate the Iran International TV channel’s
illegal move to broadcast an interview with the spokesman of the [al-Ahwazi Yeh]
terrorist group,” Iranian Ambassador to the UK Hamid Baeidinejad tweeted last
year.The terrorist group responsible for the attack, al-Ahwazi Yeh, allegedly
receives most of its funding from Saudi Arabia, according to Iranian state-run
media. Shortly after the attack, the channel invited the group’s spokesperson to
speak live on air to justify the attacks.
Report: Diplomats Form 'Crisis Cell' to Follow on Lebanon
Developments
Naharnet/October 04/2019
A crisis cell composed of diplomats has reportedly been formed two week ago to
follow closely on the developments in Lebanon, mainly its worsening economic
crisis following fears of a dollar shortage and possible currency devaluation,
Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Friday. The crisis cell consists of
ambassadors of the United States of America, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates, said the daily. “They are in constant contact with
each other to exchange information and coordinate positions on the way to deal
with the file of Lebanon in light of the economic crisis, in an attempt for
their states to come up with a common reading on this file,” said Nidaa al-Watan.
According to information, members of the cell have two points of view. One
encouraging a “non-interference” policy to save the economic situation in
Lebanon in a bid to pressure the government to review its foreign policy and
position towards Hizbullah, and to push it into accelerating the implementation
of the required reforms. The other group encourages the need to assist Lebanon
without benefiting Hizbullah. They argue that a collapse in Lebanon’s structure
falls in the party’s favor and paves the way for its total domination of
Lebanon, according to the daily.
Jarrah tackles media affairs with Press Syndicate
delegation
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
Minister of Information, Jamal Al Jarrah, on Friday welcomed in his office at
the Ministry a delegation of the Press Syndicate, led by its Dean Auni Al-Kaaki.
Talks reportedly touched on the general situation in the country, most notably
at the media level. On emerging, Dean Al Kaaki said they discussed an array of
matters pertaining to the media sector, expressing dismay about certain media
outlets disseminating false news or rumors that harm the Lebanese economy and
currency stability. On the other hand, Al-Kaaki deplored any offense targeting
the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House,
since they represent the symbol of the country. "Whoever offends them, is in
fact offending the country's symbols," he corroborated. Al Kaaki said the
Minister highlighted the crucial role played by the press in shedding light on
the positive aspects of the country, rather than the negative ones. The Press
Syndicate head stressed that the Lebanese economy and monetary situation is
solid, saying "rumors only lead to the disruption of the state's path."
Bou Saab tackles latest developments with Bukhari
NNA -Fri 04 Oct 2019
National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, on Friday welcomed in his office at
the Ministry Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, with whom he discussed
most recent developments on the local arena. Talks also reportedly touched on
the bilateral relations and means of bolstering joint cooperation.
Army: Syrian referred to court for contacting Israeli enemy
NNA - Fri 04 Oct 2019
The Lebanese Army indicated, in a communiqué on Friday, that its Intelligence
Directorate had referred a Syrian national to the competent court for contacting
Israeli phone numbers and communicating with Israelis present inside the
occupied Palestinian lands.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on October 04- 05/2019
Iran’s Guards detain Russian journalist as
Israel spy. IDF on high alert for surprise Iran attack
DEBKAfile/October 04/2019
Yulia Yuzik, a Russian journalist and author, whose work on female suicide
bombers is widely published in the West, is due to stand trial on Saturday, Oct.
5, on charge of spying for Israel. She could face 10 years in prison. Iran’s
ambassador was urgently summoned to the Russian Foreign Minister on Friday to
“quickly clarify the circumstances of the incident and ensure the rights of the
Russian woman,” spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. Earlier the Russian
embassy in Tehran confirmed that Yuzik had arrived in Tehran on Sept. 29 on a
private invitation and her passport was seized at the airport for unknown
reasons. She was arrested at her hotel on Oct. 2 by Revolutionary Guards
officers. Her ex-husband Boris Voltsekhovsky said on Friday, Oct. 4, that she
had called him from detention four days after her arrival in Iran.
DEBKAfile: Yulia Yuzik is widely known for her researches on the jihadist
terrorist movements operating in the Caucasus including Chechnya. For the past
10 years, she has reported on the subject for GQ and Foreign Policy. Her book
Brides of Allah on Chechen female suicide bombers was published in ten
countries. She is currently working on a book that is at once a collection of
travel notes and a detailed description of the methods that terrorists use to
transform normal individuals into suicide bombers.
Moscow Summons Iran Envoy over Arrest of Russian Journalist
in Tehran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Russia's government has summoned Iran's ambassador to Moscow to clarify the
circumstances around the arrest of a Russian journalist in Tehran, the foreign
ministry said on Friday. Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Iran's envoy
was "invited to the foreign ministry to quickly clarify the circumstances" and
ensure the rights of journalist Yulia Yuzik are observed. The ambassador told
deputy foreign minister Igor Morgulov that Yuzik had been detained to be
questioned but "would soon be released," according to a statement by the
ministry later Friday. The Russian embassy in Tehran told AFP the mission had
requested consular access to the journalist. "She's being accused of working for
Israeli security services," Andrei Ganenko, a spokesman for the Russian embassy
in Tehran, told AFP, citing her mother. Journalist Boris Voitsekhovskiy,
identified by Russian media as Yuzik's ex-husband, said she was detained in
Tehran and jailed on Thursday. A court hearing is scheduled for Saturday, he
said. Voitsekhovskiy said Yuzik was detained by members of the Iranian
revolutionary guard, who had broken down her hotel door. She was allowed to
briefly call her family Thursday night. Yuzik, 38, has worked for a number of
publications including the Russian version of Newsweek.She authored two books
including "Beslan Dictionary", which is based on testimony from survivors of the
2004 Beslan school massacre that claimed more than 330 lives, more than half of
them children.
Protests, Blood…What's Happening in Iraq?
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
At least 31 Iraqis were killed so far in clashes between protesters and security
forces in Iraq– these were the first protests that lead to casualties from more
than a year.
Why Are Iraqis Protesting?
After two years of defeating ISIS, a great proportion of Iraqis are living in a
deteriorating situation despite the fact that Iraq is an oil-country. The
security condition enhanced compared to the past years but the destroyed
infrastructure hasn’t been fixed yet, also jobs are scarce.
Youths are blaming the corrupt leaders, saying that they don’t represent them.
Why Did the Situation Deteriorate?
Following consecutive wars throughout years with neighboring countries, UN
sanctions and the sectarian war, the victory over ISIS in 2017 was a signal that
Iraq is entering a stage of peace and becoming free. Also, oil output increased
to record levels. However, the infrastructure is exhausted and the building of
cities - devastated by war - didn't commence yet. Further, some groups remain
armed in the streets. Corruption continued since Saddam Hussein’s term and was
reinforced under the sectarian parties that emerged after ousting him.
Who Triggered the Protests?
The protests don’t seem to be organized by a political group – at the beginning
of this week, calls on social media have mounted for protesting. The turnout was
huge and it shocked the security forces. The two main reasons for the popular
anger: the shortage of state services and the lack of job opportunists.
Will Protests' Scope Widen?
It depends on the way the government and security bodies handle the situation.
If more protesters are killed then this would increase people’s anger.
Will the Government Meet Protesters’ Demands?
It promised to enhance job opportunities for Iraqis in which Iraqi Prime
Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi pledged to provide job opportunities for graduates –
he also issued instructions to Iraq's Minister of Oil and government authorities
that 50 percent of the staff should be Iraqis in upcoming contracting with
foreign firms.
Baghdad Clashes Mount as Top Shiite Cleric Endorses Iraq
Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Clashes intensified Friday in Baghdad between protesters and police as Iraq's
Shiite spiritual leader urged authorities to heed the demands of demonstrators
who have rallied in the capital and other cities for four straight days. The
endorsement from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is revered among Iraq's Shiite
majority, prompted celebratory gunfire from protesters and piled new pressure on
Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi as he battles to quell the intensifying unrest
that has left dozens dead. Many had been waiting for a signal from Sistani in
his Friday prayer sermon, read out by representatives in Shiite holy places
across Iraq, before deciding whether to join protesters in defying the daytime
curfew in force in Baghdad and other cities. The premier has appealed for
patience from the young unemployed who have formed the mainstay of the protests,
saying his not yet year-old government needs more time to implement
reforms.Sistani retorted that the government needed to take "clear and practical
steps" and act now "before it's too late" to address popular grievances.
Otherwise, he warned, the protests would intensify and demonstrators will
"simply come back even stronger". The government "must do what it can to improve
public services, find work for the unemployed, end clientelism, deal with the
corruption issue and send those implicated in it to prison", Sistani said,
listing some of the grievances. But despite his appeal, a curfew and an internet
blackout, Iraqis thronged the iconic Tahrir Square on Friday, clashing with
police, AFP reporters said. Police opened up with a barrage of gunfire and
reporters said they saw several people hit by bullets, some in the head and the
stomach. "We will continue the movement. We heard Adel Abdel Mahdi, his speech
was disappointing and we reject it totally," said protester Adel Abdel Hadi, who
had come to Baghdad from the southern city of Basra. Samer, another protester,
said he was "not impressed" even by Sistani's comments. "I had hoped for more.
The religious establishment should be a source of support, with one word they
could have brought the government down. I see the speeches of Mahdi and Sistani
as the same," he said. After Sistani's sermon, parliament announced that it
would dedicate Saturday's session "to examining the demands of the protesters".
- 'Reject and condemn' -
Protests first broke out in Baghdad on Tuesday and have since spread across the
Shiite-dominated south. They are unusual because of their apparent spontaneity
and independence in a country where rallies are typically called by politicians
or religious figures. At least 37 people have been killed, including four
police, with hundreds wounded in four days, medical and security sources said.
Sistani voiced dismay at the mounting death toll. "There are attacks on peaceful
protesters and security forces which we reject and condemn," he said. Sistani's
message is a huge blow to Abdel Mahdi's government. The top cleric has
repeatedly acted as final arbiter of the politics of Iraq's Shiite community,
which dominates the government. In his first public address since Tuesday, Adel
Mahdi had asked for more time to implement his reform agenda in a country
plagued by corruption and unemployment after decades of conflict. "There are no
magic solutions," he said.
- 'Lethal force' -
Riot police have unleashed water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets and live fire
to clear the streets of protesters, who amassed despite curfews and an internet
blackout across three-quarters of Iraq since Wednesday. On Friday, Abdel Mahdi
gave his full support to the security forces, insisting they were abiding by
"international standards" in dealing with protesters. He described the clashes
as "the destruction of the state, the entire state", but refrained from directly
addressing protesters' demands. As protests and clashes gained in intensity,
many Baghdad shops and petrol stations remained shuttered Friday.
In a residential area near the protest site, crowds gathered to buy vegetables
and fruit, with one shopkeeper saying the price of tomatoes, grapes and other
greens had risen threefold. Northern and western provinces that were ravaged in
the 2014-2017 war against the Islamist State group have remained relatively
quiet.
The tensions prompted authorities in neighboring Iran to call on citizens
planning to take part in a major Shiite pilgrimage in Iraq this month to delay
their travel "until conditions ease." The United Nations and Amnesty
International urged Iraqi authorities to respect the right of peaceful assembly.
"We are worried by reports that security forces have used live ammunition and
rubber bullets in some areas, and have also fired tear gas canisters directly at
protesters," Marta Hurtado, spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, told
reporters in Geneva. Amnesty International's Middle East research director Lynn
Maalouf condemned the use of "lethal and unnecessary force". An internet
blackout was a "draconian measure... to silence protests away from cameras and
the world's eyes," she added.
Paris Insists On 'Opportunity of Negotiations' Between
Washington, Tehran
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Despite the failure of the great efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron in
New York and earlier in Biarritz, on the occasion of the G7 summit, to provide
the ground for a meeting between the US and Iranian presidents, Paris is still
hoping that time allows such an encounter. France remains convinced, according
to its sources, that the plan put forward by Macron, which was “accepted by the
United States and Iran is still valid” and that it “constitutes a realistic
basis” to return to the negotiating table, whether in the framework of bilateral
US-Iranian talks, or within a broader context as demanded by Tehran. “We
consider that these initiatives, which didn’t succeed, are still on the table
and it is up to Iran and the United States to seize (them) in a relatively short
amount of time because Iran has announced new measures to reduce its commitments
to the Vienna accord in November,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
told parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Wednesday. European diplomatic
sources in Paris said that reaching the beginning of next month without making
any progress “will be very critical for Paris, London and Berlin,” because those
capitals “will have to declare a position on Tehran and the fate of the nuclear
deal, which they have continued to defend until now.”The sources added that
Iran, which has deployed advanced centrifuges of the fourth and sixth
generation, “will have additional capabilities to enrich uranium to a high
degree” unrelated to the current 4.5 percent, which enables it to produce one
kilogram of low-enriched uranium per month. It is noteworthy that the three
capitals, according to consistent information, warned Tehran that its continued
violation of the agreement will prompt them not only to abandon the deal, but
also to activate the mechanism for the settlement of disputes stipulated in the
said agreement, which the three European countries have so far refrained from
resorting to in order to leave the door open to negotiations.
Sanctions Paralyze Goods' Imports via Iranian Ports
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
More than 20 ships carrying around one million tonnes of grain are stuck outside
Iranian ports as US sanctions create payment problems and hamper the country’s
efforts to import vital commodities, sources directly involved in the trade
said. Trading companies such as Bunge (BG.N) and China’s COFCO International
have been hit by payment delays and additional costs of up to $15,000 a day as
the renewed US restrictions stifle the processing of transactions, trade sources
said. According to Reuters, food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies are
exempt from sanctions Washington re-imposed after US President Donald Trump said
he was walking away from a 2015 international deal over Iran’s nuclear program.
But the US measures targeting everything from oil sales to shipping and
financial activities have deterred several foreign banks from doing any Iranian
business, including humanitarian deals such as food shipments. The few remaining
lenders still processing Iranian business face multiple hurdles to facilitate
payments as financing channels freeze up.
Six Western and Iranian sources said the situation was contributing to the
cargoes being held up for more than a month outside Iran’s biggest ports for
goods, Bandar Imam Khomeini and Bandar Abbas. The ships are carrying cargoes
including soybeans and corn mostly from South America, the sources said. The
grain vessels are also visible through ship tracking data. “There are no
restrictions on humanitarian business, but you can’t get paid for it,” one
European source said. “You can be waiting for months to get a payment.”“There is
nervousness among traders about making more sales to Iran before the backlog (of
ships) is cleared,” said another source. A senior Iranian port official, who
declined to be named, told Reuters there had been problems since US sanctions
were imposed on its financial system in November 2018. “What has changed is that
now the number of banks, traders that are staying away from doing business with
Iran is increasing,” the official said.
Separate US sanctions imposed in September on Iran’s central bank - following
attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that US, UK, France, Germany and Saudi
Arabia blamed on Tehran - have added to difficulties with transactions. The
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated last month that
Iran’s total cereal stocks in 2019 would total 5.1 million tonnes, falling to
4.8 million tonnes in 2020, versus 9.9 million tonnes in 2016. Trade sources
said Iranian ports were also struggling to process ships due to a lack of
available berths. Of the vessels still anchored, at least 20 dry bulk ships were
waiting outside Bandar Imam Khomeini, Refinitiv data showed. A further two
vessels had managed to discharge their cargoes after waiting for weeks, the data
showed. Separate data from shipping intelligence platform MarineTraffic showed a
similar number of ships stationary for more than a month. A separate Iranian
government official confirmed that ships were waiting but declined to give
details. Trade sources said Turkey’s Halkbank (HALKB.IS) - one of the main banks
that Iran has relied on for such humanitarian trade - had not been able to
process payments fast enough because of the complexity of the process and in
some cases did not complete transactions with suppliers.
Suppliers have been left with additional costs, known as demurrage, of up to
$15,000 a day as they wait to unload. Trade sources said US agribusiness group
Bunge and China’s COFCO International were among the companies affected,
together with smaller Turkish and Iranian suppliers. Bunge spokesman Frank
Mantero said: “While we don’t comment on or confirm commercial contracts, Bunge
exports agricultural commodities in accordance with all applicable legislative
frameworks.”Two sources said the increasing difficulties had prompted US
agribusiness company ADM (ADM.N) to halt trading with Iran since August. Trade
sources told Reuters in December that Bunge and rival US group Cargill as well
as other suppliers had halted new food supply deals to Iran due to payment
issues. Cargill said in a statement: “In certain countries where international
sanctions exist, we provide that food using the humanitarian exception for
medicine and food.” A US Treasury spokesperson said Washington designated Iran’s
central bank under its counter terrorism authorities, adding that the broad
exceptions to the sanctions such as for humanitarian trade that once applied to
transactions involving the central bank no longer applied.
US, Turkey Conduct Third Joint Patrol in Northeast Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The US-led coalition said it has conducted the third joint patrol with Turkey in
northeastern Syria. The patrol went ahead as planned on Friday, according to the
coalition. Washington said the deal reached with Ankara in August aims to
address Turkey´s security concerns, the Associated Press reported.
Ankara views Syrian Kurdish fighters as an extension of a Kurdish insurgency
within Turkey and wants them away from the shared border, calling it a "safe
zone."However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted as saying on
Thursday that his country does not think its efforts with the US to form the
safe zone will yield the results it wants and is ready to take action itself.
For his part, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told US Secretary of Defense
Mark Esper in a phone call that Ankara would end its work with the United States
on establishing a “safe zone” if Washington stalled on the issue, Akar’s
ministry said. “If there is stalling or delaying, we are fully determined to end
this work,” he was quoted as saying, Reuters reported. US and Turkish troops
have so far carried out half a dozen joint air missions over the zone in
northeast Syria.
Riyadh Says Huthi Offer of Truce in Yemen 'Positive'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 04/2019
Saudi Arabia gave a "positive" response Friday to a truce offer from Huthi
rebels in Yemen and called for its implementation. Since 2015, Riyadh has led a
military coalition in support of Yemen's internationally recognized government
against the Huthis, who are backed by Iran.
The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, most of them civilians,
according to humanitarian organisations, and left Yemen faced with what the UN
terms the world's worst humanitarian crisis. "The truce announced in Yemen is
perceived positively by the kingdom, as this is what it has always sought, and
hopes it will be implemented effectively," vice defense minister Prince Khalid
bin Salman wrote on Twitter. On September 21, the Huthis announced they were
ready to make peace with Riyadh, later repeating their offer despite continued
Saudi-led coalition air strikes. Saudi Arabia has said it would judge the Huthis
on their "actions and not by their words". On Monday, Huthi rebels freed 290
prisoners under an exchange that was part of a de-escalation accord struck in
Sweden in December 2018. Prince Khalid also accused Iran of exploiting the
situation in Yemen and "evading responsibility for their terrorist acts". The
Huthis claimed responsibility for attacks on September 14 against two key Saudi
oil installations, that temporarily knocked out half of the OPEC giant's
production. Riyadh and Washington, however, blamed Iran for the attacks, a
charge denied by Tehran.
New Talks over Nile Waters Kick Off in Sudan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
Irrigation ministers of three key Nile Basin countries are meeting in Sudan´s
capital, seeking to resolve differences over Ethiopia´s soon-to-be-finished Blue
Nile dam, which Cairo claims threatens its water supply. The spokesman of
Egypt´s irrigation ministry, Muhamed El-Sebai, said the ministers of Egypt,
Sudan and Ethiopia were meeting Friday for two days in Khartoum to discuss
Ethiopia´s $5 billion project, which is set to be Africa´s largest hydraulic
dam. Egypt fears the dam could reduce its share of the Nile River, which serves
as a lifeline for the country's 100 million people, the Associated Press
reported.
Ethiopia has roughly the same population and says the dam will help its economic
development. Egypt seeks Sudan's support in the dispute.The last round of talks
held in Cairo last month failed to make progress.
Tunisia: Second Round of Presidential Race Commences
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
The campaign of the 2nd round of presidential elections commenced Thursday in
Tunisia and will last till October 11. Professor Kais Saied, the independent
candidate who garnered 18.4 percent, and Nabil Karoui, who garnered 15.58
percent of votes, will be in the campaign. However, Karoui remains in prison for
charges of money-laundry and tax evasion. Tunisia’s Independent High Authority
for Elections ( ISIE) demanded Karoui be allowed televised interviews so he can
communicate with voters. ISIE's member Anis Jarboui said that the authority
finds itself in an embarrassing situation because candidates don’t have the same
chances as Karoui remains in prison. For his part, Saied said that some
electoral ballots exploited his picture and denied having anything to do with
it. While Karoui commenced his campaign with a stern message to Ennahda leader
Rached Ghannouchi, accusing Ennahda of misleading -- he attributed his
imprisonment to rejecting the political alliance with Ennahda. Karoui also
accused it of standing behind the political assassinations, hinting at leftist
opposition leader Chokri Belaid and deputy Mohamed Brahmi in 2013, the killing
of a number of security guards by terrorist groups, and assisting terrorist
networks in sending Tunisians to hotbeds outside the country. Hatem al-Maliki,
spokesman for presidential candidate Nabil Karoui, stated that he sent a message
to ISIE, the president, and national organizations to urge equal opportunity
among candidates. Maliki said it is likely that the outcome of the 2nd round of
elections will be appealed and unrecognized internationally because of the lack
of equal opportunities among competitors. Karoui is facing judicial and
political pressures after researcher Sharan Grewal published the news of Karoui
sealing a deal with a Canadian firm specified in lobbying and granting it $1M to
help him win the elections.
Sisi Reviews With Armed Forces Anti-Terrorism Strategy
Cairo - Walid Abdul Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 October, 2019
A meeting of the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, chaired by
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, reviewed on Thursday a number of files
pertaining to efforts to protect the pillars of Egyptian national security and
the fight against terrorism, in cooperation with various state institutions.
During the meeting, Sisi congratulated the Egyptian people and their armed
forces on the occasion of the anniversary of October’s glorious victories.
Meanwhile, Major General Mahmoud Tawfiq, the Egyptian minister of Interior,
noted that despite the security achievements in Egypt, the threat of terrorist
organizations was still lurking. “The Egyptian people have become aware of the
conspiracies against the homeland,” Tawfiq said, addressing his aides and
assistants at the ministry’s headquarters in Cairo. “The cohesion of the
Egyptian people to protect their homeland and unite behind its political
leadership, armed forces and police is what makes us always ready to bear the
sacrifices and face all challenges decisively,” he added. He also underlined the
need to “intensify security efforts in various areas, face any manifestation
that constitutes a violation of the law, and capture criminals,” in addition to
the launching of “large-scale security campaigns targeting gangs and bearers of
unlicensed arms.”The Interior minister asked the security leaders to follow up
on field developments in order to find solutions and face emergency security
situations and to ensure their forces’ readiness to protect important and vital
facilities and religious sites.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on October 04- 05/2019
Analysis/It’s Tempting to Connect the Dots, but Iran-Israel War Doesn’t Seem
Imminent
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: لا حرب وشيكة بين إيران وإسرائيل
Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 04/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79122/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%88%d8%b4%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Revolutionary Guards claim that it thwarted an Israeli
assassination attempt is questionable, but Israel-Iran tension is increasing
It’s very tempting to connect all the dots into one straight and sure line: The
prime minister calls for national unity and hints at an expected escalation with
Iran; the president describes “an economic-security need that we haven’t known
for many years;” Iran claims that it thwarted an assassination attempt against
Gen. Qassem Soleimani and in the background there are again assessments about
war getting closer, certainly with Yom Kippur around the corner.
Still, it’s doubtful that these things are connected to one another so simply
and clearly. Indeed there is increasing tension between Israel and Iran, but
it’s been building up over time and isn’t necessarily related to the
assassination attempt, which no one knows when or if it happened, and who might
be behind it.
At the same time, President Reuven Rivlin is continuing his efforts to persuade
Likud and Kahol Lavan to agree on an outline for a unity government. Rivlin is
using the security argument to achieve this, but he isn’t referring to an
immediate military development; he’s focusing on the Israel Defense Force’s
budgetary problems and its links with a difficulty in implementing its multiyear
plan. The situation in the Middle East is particularly complicated, but there
are no clear signs on the horizon pointing to an immediate war that would upend
all political calculations.
The announcement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on Thursday was unusual.
This wasn’t an anonymous leak, but an official declaration by the head of the
group’s intelligence division, claiming that Iran had uncovered an Israeli-Arab
plot against Soleimani. The announcement included several details: It claimed
that the Iranians had succeeded in intercepting a killer cell, which sought to
plant 500 kilograms of explosives under a prayer site built in memory of
Soleimani’s father, during a religious ceremony.
Broadly speaking, the plan is reminiscent of Operation Bramble Bush, the Israeli
attempt on the life of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein which was disrupted by a
training accident that killed five soldiers in 1992, known as the Tze’elim Bet
disaster. Still, it’s hard to assess the reliability of the claims. There are
plenty of people who would like to see Soleimani dead, including the Saudis.
According to reports, Soleimani has escaped death at least twice – during the
Second Lebanon War in 2006 and in an operation attributed to Israel and the
United States in which Hezbollah chief of general staff Imad Mughniyeh was
killed in Damascus in 2008.
The announcement, as well as an unusual and detailed interview aired with the
general this week on a website associated with the Iranian leader, appear to be
part of an attempt to continue to build a myth around Soleimani. In the
background, the Iranians do indeed have accounts to close with Israel. Dozens of
attacks against Iranian targets in Syria have been attributed to Israel, most
recently in Iraq and one case in Lebanon as well. So far, Iran’s attempts at
revenge have been thwarted.
Meanwhile, however, Iran has had a convincing success in its attack on the Saudi
oil facilities in mid-September, a feat for which it paid no diplomatic price.
On the contrary, the U.S. administration has stepped up its courtship attempts
to achieve direct negotiations between the two countries; France is trying to
mediate between the parties and Saudi Arabia has avoided any military reprisals.
Iran’s operational success could tempt it to try something similar against
Israel, perhaps from Iraqi territory, as the head of Military Intelligence’s
research division, Brig. Gen. Dror Shalom, has warned in an interview with
Israel Hayom.
All these factors require special vigilance in Israel, with possible
developments on the nuclear front in the background. Between the lines of Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset on Thursday, one could
detect his disappointment with the recent moves by President Donald Trump, who
has made a dramatic U-turn in recent months in his attitude toward the Iranians.
The Middle East is very far from being a stable region. Robert Malley, who
served in the Clinton and Obama administrations and is president and CEO of the
International Crisis Group, said in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine this
week that conditions are riper for a regional war than they have been at any
other time in recent years. These are harsh words, but they do not translate
into an immediate risk of war that would involve Israel.
In the background, talks on a possible unity government are being held. When
Rivlin spoke about to a serious economic-security challenge he was referring to
an increasing concern among top IDF officers. It’s not enough that the multiyear
plan formulated by Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi is far from being
implemented, the funding for the last year of his predecessor Gadi Eisenkot’s
plan, known as Gideon, has a budget shortfall. The gaps are estimated at 10
billion to 15 billion shekels for next year. Under a scenario of a narrow
government (which doesn’t look very relevant), meeting the demands of smaller
parties joining the government could make it impossible to close this funding
gap.
That’s why Netanyahu hinted in his address that he can’t figure out how to
overcome these financial gaps and that a unity government would have to raise
taxes. Will these remarks by Rivlin and Netanyahu, along with the increasing
tension with Iran, suffice to persuade Kahol Lavan to accept Netanyahu as a
governing partner? If it depended solely on Benny Gantz, it might have happened.
The former chief of staff’s body language conveys a clear lack of enthusiasm for
the possibility that somehow he might still be named prime minister. But his
party co-leaders are vehemently opposed to the idea for now. It seems as if the
economic distress being conveyed by Kochavi, with Rivlin’s help, hasn’t spurred
any change in their positions.
The Hat, the Turban And the Cap: Which Can Save the
Mullahs?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79120/%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%a8/
As Hassan Rouhani’s presidency drifts towards what promises to be
less than a brilliant end, speculation is starting about the next phase in the
power struggle that has been a permanent feature of the Khomeinist regime from
the start.
Some Iran-watchers argue that the regime’s true backbone consists of the
military-security establishment using the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei as a
frontman. While that view reflects an aspect of the Iranian reality, it would be
wrong to conclude that the military chiefs would remain content with the present
arrangement. The nature of political power, in any system, is that those who
secure a share of it always want more.
Iran’s military chiefs are no exception. Casting themselves as the regime’s true
protectors and claiming a purity associated with untrodden snow, they have
always whined about the alleged corruption and incompetence of the mullahs and
bureaucrats who have run the show since 1979. What is new is that today they are
whining louder and louder while advancing their claim as the fittest candidates
for ruling the nation.
The military chiefs, more specifically the top brass of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have always promoted their ambitions through
the vast media empire they control inside and outside Iran. What is new is that
today they are advancing their bid for power directly and more openly. The
latest occasion for that came last Monday during the General Congress of the
IRGC’s commanders and political and religious commissars. While the last
congress, held in 2016, was a low-profile event, the gathering last Monday
received top billion from the state-controlled media, at times assuming the
character of a political party’s convention.
The congress put the limelight on two generals with thinly disguised political
ambitions. The keynote speech was reserved for Chief of Staff Major-General
Muhammad Baqeri who is regarded as the intellectual of the bunch while
Major-General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of the Quds (Jerusalem) Corps, was
cast as second fiddle.
Baqeri’s speech, lasting more than 50 minutes, seemed to pursue three key
objectives.
The first was to persuade the people that Iran was not heading for a war and
that the military-led by him was strong enough to cope with any eventuality.
Remarkably, his analysis seemed to exclude any role for the Islamic Republic’s
political authorities. All that Iran needed to be safe from foreign invasion was
the “Supreme Guide” and his military machine.
Baqeri’s second objective was to send a conciliatory signal to Iran’s real or
imagined enemies, more particularly the United States. He did this in two ways:
by claiming that as far as establishing Iran’s influence in Lebanon, Syria,
Iraq, and Yemen was concerned it was mission accomplished and that Tehran had no
intention of opening new fronts or intensifying its presence in the region. He
said Iran “recognizes its responsibility towards regional security and
stability, playing a key role in that domain, having no intention to {practice}
enmity or harbor any thought of aggression, fomenting insecurity and war.”
In a hardly coded message, Gen. Baqeri added that Tehran was “trying to foster
calm through regional cooperation.”
To hammer in his conciliatory theme further, the general called for coping with
the US-imposed sanctions “with patience and magnanimity.”
Baqeri’s third objective was to present the IRGC as a major player in Iran’s
economic life, claiming that its controversial presence in thousands of
businesses was in public interest. He implied that while the IRGC as an economic
actor was snow-white, the public sector controlled by the government was ridden
with corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency. The implication was that if the
IRGC were in charge of everything, most of Iran’s current economic and social
problems would disappear.
As for Gen. Soleimani, a master of public relations, he spoke in his signature
hyperbolic style, claiming to have defeated the American army and revealed that
the US was nothing but a scarecrow. He shared one key theme with Gen. Baqeri:
the claim that the political leadership, that is to say, Rouhani and his team,
had failed in almost everything and that their sell-by-date had long passed.
Does this mean that we now have two generals testing the waters for a direct bid
for power?
Unlike many so-called “developing nations”, Iran does not have a tradition of
the military intervening in politics let alone running the government.
The Khomeinist regime has seen presidents. Of those, three were “hat-wearing”
ones (Mukalla in Persian). However, only one, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, managed to
survive for two full terms. The first one Abol-Hassan Banisadr had to flee to
exile after a year to save his skin. The second, Muhammad-Ali Raja’i, was blown
into pieces in a terrorist operation just weeks after being sworn in. The
remaining four presidents have all been turbaned (muam’mam). Two had black
turbans, signifying descent from Fatimah, the daughter of Prophet Muhammad. The
other two had white turbans, indicating their pure Iranian origin.
Some observers, including a few among the regime’s loyal opposition, believe
that it is time to set aside both the “hat” (kolah) and the “turban” and give
the military “cap” a chance to save the beleaguered regime.
Over the past 40 years, several generals, active or retired, have thrown their
military cap into the ring in the hope of winning the presidency. However, none
managed to make much of an impression, let alone reaching the run-off stage.
With the mullahs and their bureaucratic associates largely discredited, the
military may have a better chance this time, at least within the Khomeinist
movement.
In fact, informal groups promoting the idea of a military president for the
Khomeinist regime are already taking shape. An exile group in Florida, led by a
former senior diplomat, is campaigning for Gen. Soleimani who has also even
celebrated by a BBC Persian commentator as “a Sufi commander”. Another group led
by an Ira-American University professor in New Jersey is campaigning to draft
Gen. Baqeri with the help of several retired IRGC officers.
The rationale behind these nascent campaigns is that it would be better to let
those who hold real power in Iran also exercise it within a transparent and
legal context.
This may or may not be a sound argument. However, I think the Khomeinist regime
is fast entering a phase in its historic development in which no one would be
able to save it from these inner contradictions. The hat, the turban, and the
cap are of little use when the head is rotten.
Who's Afraid of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14911/scandinavia-crime
"Most immigrants are not criminals, but when the immigrant population is
overrepresented in almost every crime category, then there is a problem that we
must dare to talk about." — Jon Helgheim, immigration policy spokesman for the
Norwegian party Fremskrittspartiet (FrP).
"In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer
than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes
committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing...." — Det
Goda Samhället ("The Good Society"), Invandring och brottslighet – ett
trettioårsperspektiv ("Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective"). All
statistics for the report were supplied by the Swedish National Council for
Crime Prevention.
Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts
described by crime statistics, the problems are only going to become more
intractable -- to the point where they might not be solvable at all.
In Sweden, discussing who is behind the current crime epidemic in the country
has long been taboo. Such a statistic has only been published twice by the
Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ), in 1996 and in 2005. In
2005, when BRÅ published its last report on the subject, "Crime among people
born in Sweden and abroad," it contained the following note:
"Critics have argued that new results can be inflated, taken out of context and
misinterpreted and lead to reinforcing 'us and them' thinking. There is every
reason to take such risks seriously. However, BRÅ's assessment is... that a
knowledge-based picture of immigrant crime is better than one based on guesses
and personal perceptions. The absence of current facts about the crime among the
foreign-born and their children facilitates the creation and consolidation of
myths. If crime is a problem in certain groups of the foreign-born, then the
problems do not disappear unless you highlight them and speak openly about them.
A correct picture of the extent and development of the problems should instead
be the best basis for analyzing conditions and improving the ability of all
residents to function well in Sweden, regardless of ethnic origin."
Back then, apparently, the authorities still appreciated facts.
Twelve years later, in January 2017, however, Minister of Justice Morgan
Johansson flatly refused to publish statistics about the ethnic origins of
criminals in Sweden. According to Johansson:
"[Studies] have been done both in Sweden in the past, and there are countless
international studies that all show much the same thing: That minority groups
are often overrepresented in crime statistics, but when you remove
socio-economic factors, it [the overrepresentation] almost completely
disappears. So the political conclusions that I need to make, I can already make
with existing international and Swedish studies."
Johansson, who in addition to being Minister of Justice also serves as Minister
for Migration and Asylum Policy, was not alone in his views. When Swedish
Television asked the political parties in the Swedish parliament, the majority
said that they did not think such a statistic was needed.
This summer, however, in the continued absence of any forthcoming public
statistics on such an extremely important public issue, a private foundation,
Det Goda Samhället ("The Good Society") took it upon itself to produce these
statistics in a new report, Invandring och brottslighet – ett
trettioårsperspektiv ("Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective"). All
the raw data in it were ordered from and supplied by BRÅ. The raw data from BRÅ
can be accessed here.
According to the new report by Det Goda Samhället:
"For the first time now, more crimes -- in absolute terms -- are committed by
persons of foreign background than by persons of Swedish origin... The most
crime-prone population subgroup are people born [in Sweden] to two foreign-born
parents."
The report concludes:
"In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer
than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes
committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing... During
the first of the investigated periods, 1985-1989, persons with a foreign
background accounted for 31 percent of all crimes. During the period 2013-2017,
the figure had risen to 58 percent. Thus, people of Swedish origin now account
for less than half, 42 per cent, of the total crime in Sweden, despite
constituting 67 per cent of the population surveyed."
In 1996, in its first report on the issue, BRÅ disclosed (p. 40) that, "The
general picture from foreign studies of immigrants' children's crime is that
they have a higher crime rate than first-generation immigrants. That is not the
case in Sweden". According to the new report, it is the case now, and that is
perhaps the greatest indictment against Swedish integration policies of the past
30 years: the policies clearly do not work.
Another notable conclusion of the report is the increase in crimes committed by
foreign-born non-registered persons in Sweden -- these include illegal
immigrants, EU citizens and tourists. The crimes this group has committed have
increased from 3% in the period 1985-89 to 13% in 2013-17.
The report has largely been ignored by the Swedish press and political echelons,
apart from a few exceptions, such as the local newspapers Göteborgs-Posten and
Norrköpings Tidningar.
In Norway, recently, a report about the overrepresentation of immigrants and
their descendants in crime statistics was ordered from Statistics Norway, by
Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), which forms part of the Norwegian government. "We had
known that immigrants are overrepresented in these statistics, but not [by] so
much" said FrP immigration policy spokesman Jon Helgheim.
"For example, if we use the unadjusted figures... Afghans and Somalis are
charged five times more for violence and abuse than Norwegians. Adjusted for age
and gender, the overrepresentation is almost triple... Most immigrants are not
criminals, but when the immigrant population is overrepresented in almost every
crime category, then there is a problem that we must dare to talk about".
According to Dagbladet, FrP has, for years, been calling for detailed statistics
on crimes perpetrated by immigrants and children of immigrants. In 2015, the
party commissioned data from Statistics Norway, but the agency refused to
compile crime statistics based on immigrants' country of origin.
Two years later, Statistics Norway published research showing that immigrants
were strongly overrepresented in the crime statistics, but the report was not
detailed enough, according to FrP, which ordered a new report, now available.
According to Dagbladet, the new statistics "show that immigrants from
non-Western countries are overrepresented in 65 out of 80 crime categories. In
2017, 7.1 per cent of Norway's population were immigrants from a non-western
country."
According to Dagbladet, the new statistics also show that, "The largest
overrepresentation [is] in violence and abuse in close relationships."
"Non-Western immigrants and their descendants are charged with family violence
eight times as often as the rest of the population. In total, 443 persons were
charged per year on average during the period 2015-2017, [and] 35 per cent (155)
of those charged were from a non-western country or had a non-Western
background. Only half of those charged with abuse in close relationships were
what SSB [the statistical bureau] calls the rest of the population... Africa,
Asia, Latin America, Oceania except Australia and Europe outside the EU and the
EEA are considered non-Western countries."
According to Dagbladet, men from the Palestinian Authority and Somalia are
charged with violence and abuse three times more often than Norwegian men.
FrP has been accused by its political opponents of ordering these statistics
specifically for municipal elections that took place in Norway on September 9,
2019. Dagbladet asked Helgheim whether using these statistics was "cynical."
Helgheim responded:
"No, it's not cynical at all. This is very relevant for the citizens to know
something about. It would be a failure of FrP not to do everything we can to
inform voters of what are realities and facts. Our opponents constantly
criticize us for pulling the immigration card... I can find no explanations
other than that those who do not want this to be known also do not want to know
about the consequences of immigration to Norway."
In Denmark, unlike Sweden and Norway, the publication of such statistics in
itself is fairly uncontroversial. The Danish statistical bureau, Statistics
Denmark, publishes them as a matter of fact every year and they are publicly
available to everyone.
According to one of the latest such reports, "Immigrants in Denmark in 2018," as
reported by Berlingske Tidende in April:
"The figures show that crime in 2017 was 60% higher among male immigrants and
234% higher in male non-Western descendants than the entire male population. If
one takes into account, for example, that many of the descendants are young, and
Statistics Denmark does so in the report, the figures are 44% for immigrants and
145% for descendants, respectively. If further corrected, for both age and
income, of immigrants and descendants from non-western countries, the figures
are 21% and 108%".
As for the nationality of the criminal migrants, Berlingske Tidende reported:
"At the top of the list are male Lebanese who, as far as [their] descendants are
concerned, are almost four times as criminal as average men, when [the figures
are] adjusted for age. [That is] sharply followed by male descendants from
Somalia, Morocco and Syria. The violence index is 351 for descendants from
non-western countries. They are 3.5 times more violent than the population as a
whole. Descendants from Lebanon have an index of violent crimes of 668 when
corrected for age."
Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts
that these statistics describe, the problems are only going to become more
intractable -- to the point where they might not be solvable at all.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Saudi Aramco Attacks… Saudi Gains, Iranian Losses
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/October 04/2019
It is indisputable that the Iranian attack on the vital Aramco oil installations
is a serious political, military, and economic escalation, in addition to being
direct aggression against international law and then against Saudi Arabia.
The history of indirect confrontation between Iran and the world is now perhaps
defined in two phases: the pre-attack phase and the post-attack stage.
But nearly two weeks after the “foolish” aggression, as described by Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, one can say that Saudi Arabia has made several gains
out of the Iranian irrationality, while the Iranian regime is increasing its
losses day after day, and dives deeper into greater isolation.
ran, after exploiting a gray area to embellish the misfortunes of its actions,
finds itself today under terrible and unprecedented international pressure.
The Saudi gains are diverse. The following are the four main ones:
First, the Kingdom has proven - to all those who contradicted it - the veracity
of its political stance on the Iranian regime, which was translated into
severing relations with Tehran and placing it within the framework of a system
that cannot be repaired diplomatically. Second, the Kingdom reaffirmed that it
is the only country capable of securing oil supplies to the world under any
circumstances, and that the security and stability of the global economy could
not be fulfilled without the Saudi footprint. Immediately after the Iranian
attack on Aramco, oil prices rose by about 18%, the highest in a single day
since 1988, before the Kingdom stabilized markets at an astounding speed. Third,
the world has seen, with proofs and evidence, which state is rational, avoids
crises, extinguishes fires, and respects international law, and which is
reckless and does not hesitate to bring the whole world into futile wars and
endless tensions.
The fourth gain is Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic ability to rally world support in
its favor. More than 80 countries have strongly condemned the incident, calling
it an aggressive and unjustified terrorist attack.
What about the Iranian losses? Needless to say, they are too many to be counted.
But let us cite the most important four:
First, Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia but found itself facing an international
confrontation, not only with the state that it attacked. The aggression hit the
artery of the global economy, not the Saudi economy, as Tehran imagined.
Second, the international isolation of Iran is unprecedented. Even during the
annual meetings of the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was
looking for any meeting, whatsoever, with any of the presidents and heads of
states.
The third loss is the decrease of European support, which used to represent
Iran’s protective shield against the policy of maximum pressure exerted by the
United States. For the first time, the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain
have blamed Iran for the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The fourth is that the world is no longer talking about sanctions imposed on
Iran, but has welcomed further measures; not to mention the conviction that the
campaign of maximum pressure against the Iranian regime is the least that can be
done to stop its destabilization of world security and stability.
Had Iran realized the foolishness of such aggression against Saudi Arabia and
the amount of losses it would sustain, it would have never done it. The world
stands ready to accept any measures whatsoever against the Iranian regime
instead of the military confrontation pushed by Tehran.
Even such a confrontation - if it happens in the future - will no longer be
between Iran on one hand, and Saudi Arabia and its US ally on the other, but
between Iran and the world.
So what are the major gains achieved by the Kingdom and the significant losses
incurred by Iran?! It is the unfortunate end Iran has never expected.
Impeachment inquiry will actually stabilize US policy
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/October 04/2019
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House in
Washington, DC, for his annual visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical
Center on Oct. 4, 2019. (AFP)
The decade I spent in the snake pit in Washington taught me one basic overriding
lesson: Outsiders perennially overrate the decision-making processes of the US.
Whether friend or foe of America, at some deep level most outside observers
simply give the US more credit than it is due in terms of how its policies are
made. Or, to put it in Shakespearean terms, they believe America operates like
“Macbeth” — with ruthless, conniving, highly rational players calling the shots
— rather than “Hamlet,” wherein mistakes, misunderstandings and ineptitude tend
to explain things. The wry explanation of Deep Throat, the key informant in the
chilling political thriller “All The President’s Men,” gets it exactly right in
explaining how Washington truly works: “Forget the myths you’ve read about the
White House. These aren’t very bright guys and things got out of hand.”
In line with this overrating of the American policymaking process, outside
analysts assume that, in the heat of domestic upheaval, any embattled White
House will rationally act to change the subject; starting a war (“wagging the
dog”) or manufacturing a crisis to change the subject from whatever scandal is
buffeting them. But the actual historical record definitively proves otherwise.
For the simple bureaucratic truth is that US administrations find it very hard
to concentrate on two major priorities at the same time. If they are obsessed
with their immediate survival, it is not the time to venture into risky
policymaking waters. Instead, any White House under siege tends to work on
autopilot, merely perpetuating the policies they had been undertaking at the
time the major crisis hit. The Iran-Contra affair saw President Ronald Reagan
pull back from any new initiatives in Latin America or the Middle East (the
locus of the crisis). While he historically continued the process of
dramatically winding down the Cold War, the basic policy had been put in place
long before Iran-Contra made headlines. Likewise, President Bill Clinton
undertook no new major foreign policy initiatives while his impeachment battle
raged; intent as he was on merely surviving. Like a tortoise, administrations
pull themselves into their policymaking shells for protection, attempting
nothing risky as they simply do not have the intellectual bandwidth for any new,
adventurous initiatives.
Trump will be bloodied by the coming impeachment ordeal, but he will not be
removed from office.
As was true for Reagan and Clinton, it is highly likely that Donald Trump will
survive the ordeal of domestic scandal. The politics of impeachment at present
are simple: The Democrats have the votes in the House of Representatives (in
which they have a majority) to impeach the president, but have nowhere near the
required support in the Senate, where the Republicans have a majority.
Two-thirds of the upper chamber is required to convict and remove a chief
executive. Presently, the Democrats have 47 votes in the Senate, putting them an
impossible 20 seats short.
The Republican Party is now wholly in thrall to Trump. While it is true that
many of the Republican Senators personally dislike the bombastic president, the
Republican base adores him. A late September Quinnipiac survey found Trump with
an astounding 88 percent approval rating among the Republicans polled — the
second-highest percentage for any GOP leader since modern polling began in the
1920s.
All of this analysis clearly leads to a number of important political risk
conclusions about the US. Trump will be bloodied by the coming impeachment
ordeal, but he will not be removed from office. US foreign policy (and domestic
policy for that matter) will be on autopilot for the coming year at least, as a
besieged White House will hunker down and survive, but will be cautious,
pursuing the Jacksonian course that Trump has already laid out, eschewing new
divergences from already-established American policies.
In terms of the Middle East, that means that the Trump White House’s return to
America’s traditional post-1979 regional stance — with Iran as the ultimate foe
and Israel, Egypt, and the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula as its primary
allies — will remain unchanged. In such a domestic political environment, it is
unlikely that America will support military action against Iran, but it is also
unlikely that Washington will seriously continue its halting flirtations with
Tehran, which up until now have yielded nothing practical.
Instead, look for Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” toward Iran to be
continued, as any radical deviations from it — be they toward out-and-out
military conflict or toward a more dovish stance on Tehran — are disregarded as
being too risky, and taking too much attention away from the mere fact of
political survival. For, oddly enough, serious modern American domestic
political crises have the unthought-of benefit of seriously constraining US
decision-making, leaving the US following its established inclinations in terms
of foreign policy. This allows for a more static, but also more stable and
understandable, US to be assessed by the rest of the world.
In our present age of chaos and with much of the world unsure of what to make of
the Trump phenomenon and its turn toward Jacksonianism, this will amount to a
benefit in terms of understanding an America that so often of late has seemed
unknowable.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman
Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also
senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be
contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.
EU security crucial to Macron’s Russia initiative
Mark Leonard/Arab News/October 04/2019
French President Emmanuel Macron is one of those leaders who want to bend the
arc of history. Having upended French politics, he has secured positions for his
preferred candidates at the head of the European Commission and the European
Central Bank, and is now trying to improve Europe’s relationship with Russia.
French officials are comparing Macron’s Russia strategy to US President Richard
Nixon’s opening up of China in 1972. But Macron’s diplomatic overture is more
like Nixon in reverse. Rather than wooing China in order to contain the Soviets,
Macron wants to “ease and clarify (Europe’s) relations with Russia” in order to
prevent Moscow from cozying up to China. In so doing, he hopes to secure
Europe’s control over its own future. Macron launched his bid for new security
architecture in typically grandiose fashion, mirroring the urban planner
Georges-Eugene Haussmann’s project to redesign Paris in the 19th century. His
first move was to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in France’s
Fort de Bregancon before the August G7 summit in Biarritz. But the French
ministers charged with implementing the plan have since turned it on its head.
Now, rather than starting with a top-down agenda, they are trying to build
European security from the bottom up, while pursuing improved relations with
Russia one brick at a time. The French road map focuses on five key areas:
Disarmament, security dialogue, crisis management, values, and common projects.
In late August, Macron delivered a speech outlining his vision of a system of
“concentric circles” comprising varying degrees of European and Eurasian
integration. Such an arrangement would have to secure NATO and EU member states’
borders, allow for a more productive relationship with the Russia-led Eurasian
Economic Union, and offer ways to manage regional conflicts, not least the one
in Ukraine. The timing of the initiative makes sense. Like Macron himself,
Ukraine’s recently elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, created a political
party out of nothing and came to power on the promise of sweeping away a
discredited ancien regime. More to the point, Zelensky has made resolving
Ukraine’s security situation a top priority.
Macron believes that Russia’s gravitation toward China is at least partly the
result of Western mismanagement. He is not naive about the Kremlin’s territorial
aggression and election interference, but any country in a position to pose such
threats to Europe, he believes, must be engaged face to face. As one French
official explained to me: “What is true of Iran and North Korea is also true for
Russia. We won’t be able to influence it and lead it to more responsible
behavior if we just hide behind a wall of sanctions.”
The EU will never become a global player in the 21st century if it continues to
be divided and boxed in by other powers.
Adding further urgency to Macron’s efforts is US President Donald Trump, who has
confirmed France’s Gaullist suspicions about America’s unreliability as a
guarantor of European security. As the US escalates its conflict with China, it
inevitably will pay less attention to Europe and the surrounding neighborhood
(the ex-Soviet Union, the Middle East, and North Africa). Worse, the French fear
that Trump might pursue a grand bargain with Russia, leaving the EU hemmed in
between the US and China.
Macron’s biggest concern is Europe itself. The EU will never become a global
player in the 21st century if it continues to be divided and boxed in by other
powers. In Macron’s view, recasting Europe’s relationship with Russia is the
first step toward securing European sovereignty. “If you don’t have a seat at
the great power table,” one French official tells me, “it’s because you’re on
the menu.” To be sure, the French understand other Europeans’ support for the
sanctions imposed on Russia following its annexation of Crimea and incursion
into Eastern Ukraine; but they fear the flimsiness of Europe’s broader security
policy. Ideally, the EU should pursue a two-pronged approach to Russia,
combining sanctions and NATO’s deterrence with engagement. The French complaint
is that there are no meaningful channels for such engagement, and that sanctions
do not address the overall threat that Russia poses. “What would happen to
European unity,” French officials wonder, “if Moscow made a move on Ukraine or
Syria and some member states decided to block sanctions renewal?” Most likely,
it would spell the end of the EU’s Russia policy.
Still, Macron’s initiative raises many questions. Whether Putin has any interest
in resolving the Ukraine conflict remains to be seen. And, even if Europe is
capable of detaching Russia from China, it is unclear whether the Trump
administration would stand by and let the European initiative play out.
But the biggest questions are on the European front. Many Central and Eastern
European countries worry that they will be second-class citizens within Macron’s
framework of “concentric circles.” Others fear that Macron will sell out Ukraine
by forcing it to settle the conflict on Russia’s terms. And it doesn’t help that
Macron launched his initiative without first consulting other Europeans, many of
whom are already anxious about America’s waning commitment to EU security.
French officials pointed out that Nixon didn’t consult US allies before
embarking on his mission to China. But Nixon’s credibility as a security hawk
was unquestioned, whereas France is regarded suspiciously by some in Central and
Eastern Europe, who fear that their interests might be sacrificed in a
neo-Gaullist attempt to claim a spot on the world stage. If Macron is to
succeed, he will have to prove that he is committed to the sovereignty and
security not just of Central and Eastern Europe, but also of ex-Soviet countries
such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. He will also have to pursue deeper
collaboration with the Nordic and Baltic states, as well as with the relevant EU
institutions and the new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy, Josep Borrell. Above all, Macron’s initiative must create a credible
platform for a common approach to security. If it is seen as favoring some
countries over others, it and its author will end up on the menu, rather than in
the history books.
*Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Is the far right on the ropes in Europe?
Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 04/2019
Last week’s parliamentary elections in Austria have left some suggesting that
the far right in European politics, which has enjoyed a fair amount of electoral
success in the last couple of years, is now on the ropes.
The recent Austrian elections occurred after the collapse of that county’s
coalition government. Due to its makeup, this government was always fragile.
Although it was led by the mainstream center-right People’s Party, it was
propped up by the far-right Freedom Party. The government did not take long to
unravel.
In recent months, the Freedom Party got embroiled in not one, but two major
scandals involving dodgy Russian money, suspected embezzlement of political
party funds, and the alleged misuse of the Austrian intelligence service. This
scandalous behavior by the Freedom Party meant that the coalition was untenable.
The government collapsed in May.
The resulting elections saw the People’s Party surge, while the Freedom Party’s
support fell to 16 percent from 26 percent in the 2017 election. Many of the
Freedom Party’s supporters from 2017 either switched to the People’s Party or
did not vote.
But for those who think that Europe has now reached the beginning of the end of
far-right political parties gaining ground, a word of caution is needed.
Considering the magnitude of the scandals faced by the Freedom Party, it is
extraordinary that it still took 16 percent of the vote and came third. If 16
percent is the floor of the Freedom Party’s support in Austria even after all
the scandals, it will likely make a future electoral comeback.
There are a few other examples debunking the idea that the far right is dead in
Europe. In Italy last month, the coalition government of the left-wing populist
Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega party (formally known as the Lega
Nord) collapsed after months of infighting.
At the time, polling showed that if snap elections were held in Italy, Lega
would actually increase its share of the vote. So a new coalition government was
formed by center-left parties normally at odds with one another to avoid risking
this possibility.
After the European Parliament elections in May, the far right increased its
seats from 36 in 2015 to 73. In April, elections in Estonia brought the
far-right People’s Party into a coalition government, and it now holds key
Cabinet positions. Last month’s local elections in Germany saw the far-right
Alternative for Germany (AfD) make big gains too.
The rise of the political fringe in Europe represents a complete failure of
sensible, responsible and moderate political voices from the mainstream to come
together to address the many social and economic problems faced by many
Europeans.
The resilience of the Freedom Party in the Austrian elections, the fear of the
Lega surging in the polls, and the rise of the Estonian People’s Party hardly
show the far right in Europe beating a retreat. The far left has seen electoral
success. The Communist Party of Greece, Die Linke (The Left) in Germany and the
Portuguese Communist Party, to name a few, have enjoyed recent success at the
ballot box.
The rise of the political fringe in Europe represents a complete failure of
sensible, responsible and moderate political voices from the mainstream to come
together to address the many social and economic problems faced by many
Europeans.
The rise of these fringe and extreme parties did not happen in a vacuum. In some
of the countries that have seen the rise of far-right or far-left political
parties — such as Italy, Spain and Greece — it is quite obvious how these
movements have been able to take root. When you have the economic devastation
that has been seen over the past decade, in southern Europe for example, there
are political consequences. During the height of the eurozone crisis, countries
such as Spain and Greece had youth unemployment hovering around 50 percent. Even
today, Greece and Spain suffer from 40 percent and 32 percent youth unemployment
respectively. Italy’s gross domestic product is still smaller today than it was
in 2008 at the onset of the financial crisis. People’s discontent bleeds over
into the political process.
Many people who have been left behind economically, and fear that jobs are being
taken by migrants or that globalization has treated them unfairly, take refuge
among the political fringe. Populist and extremist parties on the political left
and right take advantage of people’s desperation.
In many ways, the far right and far left eventually meet on the ideological
spectrum. Big government, massive government spending, more government control
of your life, and willingness to appease aggressors are all hallmarks of both
the far right and far left in Europe today.
Russia benefits greatly from Europe’s social and political divisions. This is
the last thing the continent needs right now. Although Moscow normally gets the
blame for the rise in far-right parties in Europe, the situation is not so
simple. For the most part, Russia is not responsible for the rise of far-right
parties in Europe, but it certainly takes advantage of the situation.
Moscow’s fingerprints have been seen backing far-right groups in France, Italy
and Austria, to name but a few countries. In the case of all three, there have
been suspected financial connections with Russia. At a time when Europe needs to
be united in the face of Russian aggression, the last thing it needs is
political and societal divisions fueled by the Kremlin. The recent electoral
shortcomings of the Freedom Party in Austria does not mark the end of the far
right. Until Europe gets its house in order economically and politically, the
political fringes will remain a significant part of political life across the
continent. The rise of extremism in politics, whether on the left or the right,
should be a concern for policymakers. After all, if you drive too far to the
left or too far to the right, you often end up in a ditch.
*Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey
Turkish parties clash over Syria strategy
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 04/2019
Since the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923, and particularly under
the rule of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), today’s main opposition party,
Turkey’s indifference toward the Middle East was best understood with an old
Turkish proverb: “Neither sweets from Damascus nor the face of the Arab.” There
are many more proverbs indicating Turkey’s negative perception of the Arab world
and Syria in particular. Turkey’s relations with Syria have historically
harbored potential conflict. The two immediate neighbors even reached the brink
of war in the late 1990s. From the Hatay problem to the water question, from the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to the ongoing Syrian conflict, Turkish-Syrian
hostility has increased step by step, with the exception of a period of friendly
relations in the first decade of this century.
Particularly during the years of the secular CHP’s rule, Turkey distanced itself
from the region culturally, psychologically and politically. The CHP’s approach
to the region has not changed much.
Last week, the CHP held an International Syria Conference in Istanbul. According
to the party’s vice chairman, Unal Cevikoz, who spoke to a Turkish media outlet,
representatives of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government were invited to
the conference. Officials from Iran, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were also invited.
Cevikoz said the participants from the Syrian regime were not named in order to
prevent any problems in their visa applications or travel to Turkey.
Speaking at the conference, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu stated that
establishing a direct dialogue between Ankara and Damascus would be the easiest
way to reach a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Syria. He also put forward
an initiative to create a peace and cooperation organization that would include
Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
However, in 2012, Kilicdaroglu wrote in the Wall Street Journal, asserting that
the party views Assad as a brutal dictator who has no place in the future of
Syria, and that the refugee problem should not be used to polarize the Turkish
population. It would not be wrong to say that the CHP’s initial reaction to the
Assad regime and the massive influx of refugees from Syria was balanced and
sensible. It is rare, but at that time the CHP was thinking along the same lines
as the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) stance of providing Syrians
with humanitarian assistance.
The CHP has been criticizing the government’s Syria policy for a long time and
this stance was reiterated by Cevikoz.
However, just a year later, in 2013, a parliamentary delegation from the CHP met
with Assad in Damascus. The delegation posed smilingly to cameras and shook
hands with Assad. The AKP government criticized the visit, saying it was not
possible to understand what the CHP was trying to achieve with such an action.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been one of the staunchest opponents
of Assad since the latter responded to mass protests with violent interventions
in 2011, sparking the ongoing conflict in the country and leading to a mass
refugee influx to Turkey.
Today, there are three major points that the CHP and AKP disagree on regarding
Syria, while there is maybe only a single issue that they seemingly agree on.
The first issue of contention between the parties is the approach toward Assad.
Second is the issue of the refugees’ presence in Turkey as, while the government
praises itself for its refugee policy, the CHP adopts an anti-refugee rhetoric.
Third is Turkey’s offensive foreign policy toward Syria. The only issue they
agree on is the fight against the PKK. Kilicdaroglu said in his speech at last
week’s conference that Turkey’s struggle against terror beyond its borders is a
right guaranteed by international agreements and engagements, adding that Ankara
should continue its counterterrorism efforts.
The AKP’s Yasin Aktay slammed the CHP conference on Syria in his column
published in the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper. “Assad and his supporters
were the only ones invited to the conference, where Turkey was held responsible
for almost all the problems in Syria. Additionally, the message given through
the conference was that, if a solution is wanted, everything should continue
where it left off, as if nothing happened with Assad,” he wrote.
The CHP has been criticizing the government’s Syria policy for a long time and
this stance was reiterated by Cevikoz, who said: “Cutting relations with the
Assad government was the Turkish government’s biggest mistake since the start of
the civil war in Syria in 2011.” However, this begs the question: While Turkey
is able to establish indirect relations with the regime through Russia and Iran,
why should it directly talk to Assad after the regime’s many atrocities? One
expert wrote sarcastically in a tweet: “The Assad regime cannot even establish
relations with itself without Russia’s approval.”
The response to the Turkish government’s Syria policy is not to solely criticize
without leaving room for debate, but also to propose rational and realistic
policy recommendations. That should be the primary task of the opposition. Thus,
after all, a “utopian” policy based on establishing ties with Assad cannot and
will not work. However, a more realistic policy carried out with the main
actors, such as Russia, Iran and Western countries, which could keep Assad in
check to a certain extent, could serve Turkey’s long-term national interests.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
War and peace, and a morning workout, at Russian Energy
Week
Frank Kane/Arab News/October 04/2019
Saudi Arabia, eager to promote all aspects of life in the Kingdom, could learn a
lesson or two from the Russians when it comes to staging a business conference.
The organizers of Russian Energy Week (REW) in Moscow manage to combine
business, history and culture with a challenging aerobic workout — and that was
just the accreditation process.
First, the business. REW is Russia’s play for pre-eminence in the energy forum
space, a crown hitherto held by CERA Week in Houston, Texas, sometimes dubbed
the “Oilman’s Davos.”
It has a fair chance of success I reckon. Russia is the world’s biggest oil
producer, still just ahead of the US, and Moscow is a great city. Any fun thing
you can do in Houston you can do just as well in Moscow, I imagine.
The Russian capital oozes history and culture. I have been here several times,
but always find something new and unexpected. Still fresh in my memory is the
row of gigantic black steel crosses on the road from Sheremetyevo airport,
representing the furthest line of Nazi advance in 1941, which chilled me on my
first visit there decades ago.
This time, the new discovery was the Manege, the early 19th century building
where the REW is held. It was originally an indoor riding academy built by Czar
Alexander I, conqueror of Napoleon, so his cavalry could keep in top shape in
the depths of winter. It later became a concert hall and art gallery.
Surrounding the Manege are some of Moscow’s best-known historical sites. You
catch a glimpse of golden domes from its windows — the nearby towers of the
Cathedral of Christ the Savior, another rebuilt masterpiece after the original
was destroyed by Stalin in one of his bouts of Soviet atheism.
Moscow oozes history and culture. I have been here several times, but always
find something new and unexpected.
You have to walk a bit from the Manege to see the archetypal Russian church, the
magnificent St. Basil’s Cathedral at the far end of Red Square, but it is worth
the walk. Past the statue of Soviet general Georgy Zhukov, the man more
responsible than any other (including jealous Stalin) for the defeat of Adolf
Hitler, past the red granite mausoleum of Lenin, over the cobbles where tanks
and intercontinental ballistics roll every year to celebrate Russian military
might, you are drawn inescapably to the multicolored onion domes of the ultimate
Moscow tourist site. They are mesmerising.
Head back to the Manege, and you can take in the Museum of the Patriotic War of
1812. Less well known than the huge Museum of the Great Patriotic War (1941-45)
close by, it is an impressive reminder that you should never, ever invade
Russia.
I got to know the smaller museum quite well on the first morning of REW, and
this is where the aerobic exercise comes in.
During the energy week, the building doubles as an accreditation center. It’s
about a kilometer from the Manege, so that’s not a particularly convenient
arrangement — especially when most streets are blocked by surly police officers
who order you instead to the underground crossings formed by the Metro stations.
By the time I had traveled from the Manege to the museum and back again, I must
have done a few kilometers, and was staring to feel a bit footsore, even at nine
in the morning.
When the police officer on the barrier looked at my badge and said “need two”
before barring my entry, my goodwill failure was imminent. But you don’t really
want to protest too loudly to a man carrying an automatic weapon, so off I
trudged back to the museum to get the second badge that would enable me to enter
the forum. When I finally got there, I collapsed in a seat in the press center,
reflecting on the past couple of hours.
There you have the Russian Energy Week experience. War and peace, history and
culture, and some rigorous urban exercise — all in a couple of hours before the
event got down to business.
• Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai
Iran’s attempt to force the US back to the JCPOA failed miserably
طوني بدران/العربية: فشلت إيران فشلاً ذريعاً في اعادة أميركا إلى الإتفاق النووي
Tony Badran/Al-Arabiya/October 04/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79132/%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84%d8%aa-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d8%b0%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7/
By attacking Saudi Aramco, Iran wanted to force the US to return to the JCPOA
nuclear deal. It failed.
The futility of Iran’s attempts to force the US to return to the nuclear deal
was evident at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), where US President
Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to sanctions as long as Tehran’s
“menacing behavior continues.” His words were followed by action when the US
Treasury imposed sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and National Development Fund.
It is easy to forget that only a week before, many commentators had claimed not
only that talks between Iran and the Trump administration were imminent, but
that these talks would likely lead to the lifting of some sanctions. At the
time, France was running a play on Iran’s behalf, which involved extending
Tehran a $15 billion line of credit, in return for Iran apparently resuming
compliance with the nuclear deal it had violated precisely to pressure the
Europeans.
It was against this backdrop that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, in an escalation
which aimed at forcing the US’ hand.
For months, Iran has been trying desperately to get American sanctions lifted,
and to force the US to walk back its decision to leave the JCPOA. It enlisted
European mediators to work on the US president, but they were ineffective. Iran
is desperate to resume oil sales, which had plummeted since the US’ departure
from the JCPOA. The $15 billion credit line proposed by the French was to be
guaranteed by Iranian oil, the equivalent of 700,000 barrels per day of future
oil sales. In other words, it was a way to allow Iran to “pre-sell” its oil, all
while luring the US back into the JCPOA framework. Perhaps as important as the
cash windfall was the goal of entangling the Trump administration in talks and
preventing future pressure.
Although waiting to see if Trump is replaced by a pro-JCPOA Democratic Party
presidential candidate initially seemed like a good strategy to Iran, the
expiration of oil waivers in May changed Tehran’s strategic considerations. The
expiration of oil waivers meant that Iran could face five more years of
crippling sanctions. The Iranians also faced the prospect of Trump shredding the
JCPOA once and for all at the United Nations, depriving Iran of promised
expiration dates on UN weapons restrictions.
The Iranians therefore moved to another strategy to try and pressure the US,
with the belief they could influence Trump’s chances at reelection.
This strategy was put into action shortly after the waivers expired, when
Iranian-led militias in Iraq launched an attack on a major Saudi pipeline. Iran
then sabotaged and hijacked oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf. Coupled with Iran’s
nuclear violations, these actions panicked the Europeans into scurrying to the
US to present Iran’s terms. However, it failed to influence the US position.
Iran then upped the ante by attacking Saudi Arabia from its own territory,
believing it would force Trump into a corner. By targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil
production, Iran thought it could unsettle global markets and raise oil prices,
causing an economic downturn which would hurt the US president politically.
Tehran calculated that Trump would then be forced into a lose-lose choice which
would harm his prospect for reelection. On the one hand, if Washington
retaliated militarily, oil prices would increase further and harm Trump’s bid
for reelection. On the other hand, if Trump capitulated and accepted Iran’s
terms, he would be reneging on one of his signature policies, the withdrawal
from the JCPOA.
In other words, Iran wanted to impose the binary of the Obama years: either the
JCPOA or war. To that end, Tehran recognized that the proponents of the JCPOA in
the US and their communications infrastructure would amplify this binary choice
– promoting Iranian blackmail and heightening an overall sense of crisis while
the Europeans present sanctions relief and a return to the JCPOA framework as
the only alternative to military escalation.
Not only was there no panicked American response, but, despite an initial brief
and modest spike in the price of oil, the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia also
failed to put a dent in the global energy markets – Aramco quickly restored its
oil production and crude prices stabilized within a couple of days. In fact,
this has been a key Iranian weakness: all of their sabotage attacks, including
the high-risk direct attack from their own territory, have not been able to
seriously or sustainably influence oil prices or supply.
Far from capitulating, the Trump administration strategically sanctioned Iran’s
Central Bank and National Development Fund, shooting down the French proposal of
extending a line of credit to Iran in the process. Even as the French resumed
their efforts to set up a meeting between Trump and the Iranian president at the
UN, the US made it clear that any meeting would not come with sanctions relief.
To underscore this point, following the president’s UNGA speech, the US slapped
another round of sanctions on Chinese firms for shipping Iranian oil.
Incidentally, even after these latest sanctions were announced, oil prices fell.
The Iranian gambit, in other words, failed. The question now is whether Iran
doubles down and stages more attacks on oil infrastructure. Only now, there is a
higher risk for Tehran. The US is deploying to Saudi Arabia a Patriot missile
battery with 200 support personnel and four Sentinel RADARs (with two more
Patriot batteries and one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system on Prepare
to Deploy Orders). As a result, there will be more eyes on any major launches
from Iran and more overall preparedness. With no more room for deniability,
especially for a major attack — which is what Iran would need — the retaliatory
options also increase.
By rejecting to pay Iran to negotiate and declining to take the bait of
immediate military retaliation, the Trump administration has put itself in a
position to do what the Iranians fear most: take its maximum pressure campaign
to the UN and invoke the snapback mechanism in UN Security Council Resolution
2231. There are signs the Trump State Department might be considering this
option. Recently US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted that the UN should
act to prevent the arms embargo lifted by the JCPOA from expiring. The way to do
so is the snapback mechanism. The Europeans might still balk. But the US is in a
place to influence them, especially if Iran takes additional steps to violate
the deal, as it has done recently.
The Trump administration’s response to Iran’s gambit underscored the fact that
the Islamic Republic’s blackmail will not succeed in reviving the corpse of the
JCPOA. Now it’s time to bury that deal for good.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He tweets @AcrossTheBay.