English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 24/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.november24.20.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest . Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me; for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 11/25-30/:”‘I thank you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and the intelligent and have revealed them to infants; yes, Father, for such was your gracious will. All things have been handed over to me by my Father; and no one knows the Son except the Father, and no one knows the Father except the Son and anyone to whom the Son chooses to reveal him. ‘Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me; for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 23-24/2020

Health Ministry: 1041 new cases of Corona, 11 deaths
Arab, World Leaders Congratulate Aoun on Independence Day
Hassan: Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine in Lebanon in February
Khalaf Launches ‘Recover the State’ Rescue Campaign
Israeli minister invites Aoun to direct border talks
European measures against any party obstructing political process in Libya
Berri's Press Office: All that is attributed to the House Speaker under 'Ain Tineh sources' is unfounded
Three injured by gunfire in the areas of al-Nassrieh and al-Buwaida, north of Hermel
Steps of Hope” Organization renovates more than 400 apartments in Beirut
Beirut's Justice Palace witnesses launching of national rescue initiative
Protesters’ military trials spark outcry in Lebanon
Protesters mark Lebanon’s Independence Day with brooms and basil/Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 23/2020
Lebanon’s student elections were a victory, but will not save the nation/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/November 23/2020
Lebanon on borrowed time not addressing Hezbollah’s weapons/Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 24/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 23-24/2020

AstraZeneca/Oxford Say Covid Vaccine Shows 70% Efficacy
US election: Trump political allies urge him to concede and begin transition
Saudi FM denies Netanyahu NEOM visit: ‘There were no Israelis present’
Israeli Reports Say Netanyahu Met Saudi Crown Prince, Riyadh Denies
Netanyahu meets Saudi crown prince MBS, Pompeo in Saudi Arabia/The plane returned to Israel after only a few hours.
Israel’s El Al Airlines to fly 14 weekly flights from Tel Aviv to Dubai from Dec.
Turkey summons EU, Italy, Germany envoys over weapons search of its ship to Libya
Europe Threatens 'Measures' against Parties Obstructing Libya Peace
Saudi-led Coalition Says Huthi Attack on Jeddah Oil Facility Targets Global Supplies
Conflict over Muslim Brotherhood still separating Egypt, Turkey
Syria's Assad: Lone Survivor of Arab Spring
Palestinians slam Pompeo over pro-settlement efforts

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 23-24/2020

Gantz: Netanyahu hurt Israel by leaking Saudi trip/Defense and foreign ministers left in dark on PM's Saudi trip/Gil Hoffman/Jerusalem Post/November 23/2020
Netanyahu trip to Saudi Arabia shows importance of Israeli-Saudi ties/Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/November 23/2020
Cooperate with China or World War 3: Kissinger/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 23/2020
How Islam’s Own Blasphemy Laws Could Outlaw Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/November 23, 2020
The future of Iran’s ties with Al-Qaeda under new US president/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/November 23/ 2020
Can Biden help end the tragedy of Syria?/Chris Doyle/Arab News/November 23/ 2020
Feeling alienated, Iraqi Christians tempted to emigrate/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 22-23/2020

Health Ministry: 1041 new cases of Corona, 11 deaths
NNA/November 23/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Monday, the registration of 1041 new Corona cases, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 117,476.
It also indicated that 11 death cases were also registered during the past 24 hours.

Arab, World Leaders Congratulate Aoun on Independence Day
Naharnet/November 23/2020
President Michel Aoun, received more telegrams of congratulations on the 77th anniversary of Independence from Arab and world leaders, the National News Agency reported on Monday. In his cable, Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, wished that “Lebanon and the Lebanese people would enjoy prosperity, stability and peace.” Emperor of Japan, Naruhito, expressed “his best wishes” for the President and for “the prosperity of your country.”Aoun also received cables from: Italian President Sergio Mattarella, President of India Ram Nath Covind, Deputy Emir of the State of Qatar Abdullah bin Hamad al-Thani, Qatari Prime Minister Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdulaziz al-Thani, Secretary General of the Francophone Organization Louise Mushikiwabo.Lebanon celebrates Independence Day on 22, November. But the country has cancelled all national festivities amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Hassan: Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine in Lebanon in February
Naharnet/November 23/2020
Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan said Monday that Lebanon is expected to receive Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine “not later than February 2021” if the vaccine gets adopted. "If the vaccine gets regulatory approval in its final form, Lebanon will receive it within a period not later than mid-February,” media reports quoted Hassan as saying. He said Lebanon began “early talks” with the multinational pharmaceutical corporation, which “allowed it to be among the first countries that will get the vaccine at a competitive price.”
On any financial obstacle preventing Lebanon from getting the vaccine, Hassan said: “There is no financial problem, taking into consideration the possibility that the World Bank would increase the amounts of money transferred from the loan to cover the expenses.” The Minister said that 15 percent of the Lebanese will get vaccinated, prioritizing seniors in the first stage. Although Lebanon is currently under a two-week lockdown that will end on November 30, the Minister said more “people are testing positive for the virus.” “Nine days into the lockdown, the ratio of people retracting the viruses is still considerably high,” said Hassan, hoping to see a decline in positive cases in the second week.

Khalaf Launches ‘Recover the State’ Rescue Campaign
Naharnet/November 23/2020
The head of the Beirut Bar Association, Melhem Khalaf, announced on Monday the launch of a campaign to “recover the State” from the current political authority, setting the foundations for the move. “The principles of this initiative are insofar an implementation of the constitution, and is based on the scale of the people’s pains and hopes,” said Khalaf at the opening of the campaign launch. Khalaf asserted that the campaign is open for constructive debate. In strong worded remarks, Khalaf added: “We will not accept the continued collapse of the state and attrition, we will restore the State together,” he emphasized. Lebanon is grappling with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis that sparked mass anti-government protests, adding to the repercussions of a colossal Beirut port explosion, and an outbreak of coronavirus pandemic. The crisis is largely blamed on decades of systematic corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon's ruling class. Lebanese politicians missed a French initiative to help Lebanon steer out of the crisis. They were unable to agree on a crisis Cabinet capable of implementing reforms in order to unlock international assistance for the crisis-ridden country.
Horse-trading among political factions is common in Lebanon. They remain deadlocked on which faction gets to have what key portfolio.

Israeli minister invites Aoun to direct border talks
Agence France Presse/November 23/2020
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: Israel's Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz has invited President Michel Aoun to direct talks in Europe on their countries' disputed maritime border, a rare outreach between nations still technically at war. Israel and Lebanon opened indirect negotiations on the border dispute under US and UN auspices last month to clear the way for offshore oil and gas exploration. Last week, Steinitz on Twitter accused Lebanon of undermining the talks by continuously shifting its position and trying to widen the disputed area under negotiation. That sparked a Twitter response from Aoun, who rejected Steinitz's charges that Lebanon had been inconsistent. Steinitz, in a series of tweets directed at Aoun on Monday, in both Hebrew and Arabic, said he had been "enjoying the dialogue that has developed between us in recent days". "I am convinced that if we could meet face-to-face in a European country in order to have open, or secret, negotiations, we would have a good chance of resolving the maritime border dispute once and for all." There was no immediate comment from Aoun. Israel and Lebanon have been negotiating based on a map registered with the United Nations in 2011, which shows an 860-square-kilometre (330-square-mile) sea area as being disputed. But Lebanon considers that map to have been based on wrong estimates. Aoun's tweet confirms that it is now demanding an additional 1,430 square kilometres (552 square miles) of sea further south.

European measures against any party obstructing political process in Libya
NNA/November 23/2020
France, Britain, Italy and Germany threatened today to impose sanctions on the sides obstructing negotiations between the two Libyan parties, which aim to establish transitional institutions until elections are held in December 2021.
According to the French Press Agency, the four European countries said in a joint statement published by the French Presidency: "We are ready to take measures against those who obstruct the Libyan political dialogue forum and other tracks of the Berlin process, as well as against those who continue to plunder government funds and commit human rights violations in the country."

Berri's Press Office: All that is attributed to the House Speaker under 'Ain Tineh sources' is unfounded
NNA/November 23/2020
House Speaker Nabih Berri's Press Office reiterated today the non-existence of any such thing as "Ain Al-Tineh sources". In an issued statement, Berri's Press Office affirmed that "all positions attributed to the House Speaker in terms of 'sources', whether on the subject of the election law, which is still under discussion in the joint parliamentary committees, or any other political matter, is totally groundless."

Three injured by gunfire in the areas of al-Nassrieh and al-Buwaida, north of Hermel
NNA/November 23/2020
An exchange of fire and bomb shells took place between two families in the areas of al-Nassrieh and al-Buwaida, north of Hermel district, due to the shooting incident that occurred earlier today at the intersection of Hosh al-Sayed Ali, which resulted in the wounding of 3 persons, NNA field correspondent reported this evening. The Lebanese Army units and Intelligence Directorate are working to deploy within the locality to control the situation and restore calm to the vicinity.

Steps of Hope” Organization renovates more than 400 apartments in Beirut
NNA/November 23/2020
Sydney - The Australian "Steps of Hope" Organization continues its support for Lebanon, especially the Beirut area affected by the port explosion, whereby it has completed the restoration of more than 400 apartments within the framework of the first phase, which will reach 500 apartments.
In this context, the Organization dispatched four containers to Lebanon, provided by institutions and individuals in Australia, carrying food supplies, medicines, household items and games for children on the occasion of the holidays. Chairman of the Organization's Board of Directors, Charlie Ibrahim, who returned to Sydney after spending nearly two months overseeing the Organization's restoration works in Beirut, pointed out that "the main problem today is not reconstruction, but rather reviving the economy on new foundations other than those to which the Lebanese have been accustomed for decades. ""Production is the most important element in activating the economic cycle, and we must train young people to work and produce through small businesses that do not require large capital," he said."Financiers can invest in these productive projects, which will reap benefit for both the investor and the producer," Ibrahim noted.

Beirut's Justice Palace witnesses launching of national rescue initiative
NNA/November 23/2020
Marking Lebanon's 77th Independence Day, spiritual families, free professions unions, universities, economic figures, labor bodies, and community forces launched, on Monday, a national rescue initiative under the headline, "Together We Recover the State," in a meeting organized at the Palace of Justice in Beirut. Partaking in the initiative's launching were the Beirut and Tripoli Bar Associations, the Beirut and Tripoli Doctors Syndicates, the Beirut and Tripoli Dental Syndicates, and the Syndicates of Engineers, Press, Editors, Pharmacists, Nurses and Physical Therapists, Accountants, Contractors Association, and Real Estate Appraisers. The initiative included the signing of a document by the participants. In his word during the launching event, Beirut Bar Association Dean, Melhem Khalaf, said that this initiative is at the level of the people's pains and sufferings, and their hopes for a better tomorrow; noting that its principles are open for discussion. "At this historical moment, marking the centenary of the state of Greater Lebanon and the anniversary of the independence of the republic, in a dark apocalyptic scene unprecedented in the history of the nation, we come together today...We are not seeking power, nor a coup nor violence, but rather we wish to overcome the bitter reality with a peaceful constitutional, human rights, and democratic path. We want to recover the state by reconstituting power, we want the state to be restored in order to rebuild the nation!" stated Khalaf.
"We are presenting a national rescue initiative that is far from any disputes and from any narrow interests. It is a roadmap to get out of the moral crisis that has clung to public life. It is an integrated initiative that cannot be addressed in parts but as a whole, with humility, sympathy, courage, and without excluding anyone," he added. "We call, first, on all citizens to join, and we ask, secondly, all those concerned in the authority, to view it as quickly as possible, and thirdly, we appeal to the whole world and every living conscience to keep pace with its implementation, for through it is the salvation of Lebanon and the Lebanese," Khalaf underscored. "Today people are desperate and hungry. Today we decided to raise our voice, for we will not have a nation as long as we are silent. We will not have a homeland, as long as we are distant from demanding our right to life, freedom and dignity. We will not have a homeland, as long as we keep disagreeing...We will not have a homeland, if we do not restore the state with its institutions!" he corroborated. "We will not accept the continued collapse of the state and we will recover it together," pledged Khalaf, adding, "We have made our decision to stay in our land, to save our homeland, to fulfill the hopes of our emerging generations, and to build the foundations of the second centenary of Greater Lebanon." "No more words, it is time for effective action at the level of the entire Lebanon!" he concluded.

Protesters’ military trials spark outcry in Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/November 23/2020
Around 90 civilians have been referred to the military justice system so far, according to Legal Agenda, a human rights group based in Beirut.
BEIRUT - A year after mass protests roiled Lebanon, dozens of protesters are being tried before military courts, proceedings that human rights lawyers say grossly violate due process and fail to investigate allegations of torture and abuse. Defendants tried before the military tribunal say the system is used to intimidate protesters and prop up Lebanon’s sectarian rulers.
Around 90 civilians have been referred to the military justice system so far, according to Legal Agenda, a human rights group based in Beirut.
“We expect many more people to be prosecuted,” said Ghida Frangieh, a lawyer with the group.
Growing perils of activism
The trials underscore the growing perils of activism in Lebanon, where a string of court cases and judicial investigations against journalists and critics has eroded the country’s reputation for free speech and tolerance in a largely autocratic Arab world.
Justice Minister Marie-Claude Najm did not respond to a request for comment. Lebanese officials typically do not address the question of why civilian cases are being tried in the military court system. Security forces have denied beating and torturing protesters and activists in detention.
Frangieh said that security forces arrested around 1,200 people from the beginning of the anti-government uprising in October 2019 through the end of June. Lebanese authorities have prosecuted around 200 of them, including those referred to the military judiciary, the monitoring group has found.
An activist’s ordeal
Last November, Lebanese activist Khaldoun Jaber was taking part in an anti-government protest near the presidential palace outside Beirut when several Lebanese intelligence officers in plainclothes approached and forcibly took him away. The demonstration was part of a wave of protests sweeping Lebanon against corruption and misrule by a group of politicians who have monopolised power since the country’s civil war ended three decades ago.
Jaber didn’t know it then, but Lebanese security forces targeted him because of his social media posts criticising President Michel Aoun.
What followed were 48 harrowing hours of detention during which security officers interrogated him and subjected him to physical abuse, before letting him go. “I was beaten, harmed psychologically and morally,” Jaber said. “Three of my teeth were broken and I lost 70% of my hearing in my left ear.”
“I am still traumatised,” he added.
Two months after his arrest, Jaber received an official notice saying military prosecutors were charging him with assaulting security forces at the Baabda Palace when the plainclothes agents detained him.
“I was shocked when I was called to the military tribunal,” Jaber said.
The trial did not take place until October 7, when the military court declared Jaber innocent of assaulting security officers, which is a military crime under Lebanese law, but said it lacked jurisdiction over a second charge, that of insulting the president. Like Jaber, many detained protesters only find out a month or more after their release that authorities have referred them to military courts. Many of these cases were scheduled for hearings this November and December, Frangieh said, before a two-week nationwide lockdown over the coronavirus pandemic temporarily closed the courts.
Fairness into doubt
Jaber’s case is an example of how military prosecutors try to claim jurisdiction over civilian cases by usually filing more than one charge, including one that is a military crime, said Frangieh, who represents protesters before the military tribunal and is also part of the Lawyers’ Committee for Defense of Protesters.
“There was no evidence,” Frangieh said about Jaber’s charge of assaulting security officers. “He was kidnapped during a protest, but he was actually targeted because of his social media posts that criticized the president.”
The military prosecutor’s office closed, without investigation, a torture complaint that Jaber had submitted, she added.
According to Legal Agenda, the military courts usually issue summary decisions on the same day of the trial, without issuing an explanation.
“There’s really a lot of doubt about the fairness and arbitrariness of the decisions issued by the court,” she said, adding that when defendants are sentenced, the legal basis of the conviction is not immediately shared with their lawyers.
Military prosecutors often neglect to read the full case files prepared from military intelligence reports, or abruptly drop or change charges during trials, according to Frangieh and another lawyer with the committee representing protesters, Ayman Raad.
“Military courts have no business trying civilians,” said Aya Majzoub, a researcher with Human Rights Watch. The international rights group has called on Lebanon’s parliament to end the troubling practice by passing a law to entirely remove civilians from the military court’s jurisdiction.
Georges Abou Fadel was summoned for a military trial on October 30, after he was detained during a protest a year ago in the town of Beit Mery, east of Beirut.
During his trial, the military prosecutor asked the judge for time to read the case report, then asked to change the charge against Abou Fadel from assaulting security forces to the lesser charge of nonviolently resisting arrest.
The court found him innocent but Abou Fadel said he wasn’t relieved, knowing there’ll be more trials “for my friends, for the people protesting, for anyone who is trying to call for his rights.”
Another node in the sectarian system’s web
Lawyers, rights activists and defendants describe the military tribunals’ prosecution of protesters and other civilians as another node in the web of Lebanon’s sectarian system that protects the power of its top politicians rather than the rights of citizens.
“This is one of the tools used by the sectarian parties,” said Abou Fadel — keeping their people loyal through fear of the military courts.
Many of the judges at the military tribunal are appointed by the defense ministry, which undermines the tribunal’s judicial independence, according to rights activists.
The head of the military tribunal is customarily Shia, while the chief military prosecutor is Maronite Christian.
Reforming the Lebanese judicial system is “one of the most important demands” of the anti-government protesters, Raad said, including ending military trials for civilians.
On November 13, Jad Al Rayess was fined 200,000 Lebanese Pounds ($132) by a military court, 11 months after security forces detained him at a protest on Beirut’s Ring Road.
The court has not yet released a statement with the charge for which he was convicted.
The 32-year-old said that he plans to emigrate from Lebanon.
“We are not going to get any progress without blood, and that’s nothing I want to be involved in,” he said.

Protesters mark Lebanon’s Independence Day with brooms and basil
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 23/2020
The Lebanese fear the collapse of their state in the light of corruption, the quotas that hinder the formation of the government and the failure to achieve the reforms required to support Lebanon from abroad
BEIRUT: Many national celebrations for Lebanon’s 77th Independence Day on Sunday were canceled amid the coronavirus pandemic, the political divide, the economic downturn and the aftermath of Beirut’s port blast on Aug. 4.
However, several wreaths were laid on the graves of several independence statesmen, while Army Commander in Chief General Joseph Aoun laid a wreath on the memorial statue of the Lebanese Army martyrs.
The civil movement celebrated the day in a different way, suspending brooms and wreaths of basil on the walls of public institutions such as the headquarters of the government, the parliament, the Ministry of Economy, the Bank of Lebanon, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Finance, the Palace of Justice, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Electricity of Lebanon, the Association of Banks and the Port of Beirut. Basil wreaths are usually placed on the graves of the dead but these carried the demands of the protesters.
“We chose this way of expression as we are unable to take to the streets again because of the COVID-19 pandemic. We are sending a clear message to officials that true independence will only be achieved by returning state institutions to the people who are the source of all powers. We wanted to mourn the corrupt authority,” activist Mahmoud Fakih told Arab News.The Lebanese fear the collapse of their state in the light of corruption, the quotas that hinder the formation of the government and the failure to achieve the reforms required to support Lebanon from abroad. The chaos surrounding Lebanon’s economic crisis has deepened after international firm Alvarez & Marsal terminated its contract to audit the central bank’s accounts.
On Sunday, the black market exchange rate for dollars in Lebanon soared to more than 8,400 Lebanese pounds to the dollar.
HIGHLIGHT
The Lebanese fear the collapse of their state in the light of corruption, the quotas that hinder the formation of the government and the failure to achieve the reforms required to support Lebanon from abroad.
Many activists expressed their indignation on social media. Lawyer and activist Nizar Siagha wrote on Twitter: “The independence of the people from the leaders that have transformed the state into a fiesta is the independence for which we are fighting today, the independence of equality, justice and solidarity without discrimination.”Dr. Suzanne Hosri, a researcher at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, wrote: “This year, I refuse to celebrate or even mention Independence Day. There is no independence before the liberation of the homeland from the corrupt and failed system. There is no sovereignty before holding leaders across the sectarian spectrum accountable for our fear, disease and death. There is no freedom before breaking the shackles of our intolerance and sectarianism toward an open and responsible citizenship capable of defending its dignity and rights. No to a fake and misleading Independence Day!”
Lebanese president Michel Aoun received congratulatory cables on the 77th anniversary from presidents and kings alike, including China’s President Xi Jinping, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Many of these cables held implied political messages. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not congratulate President Aoun or the government but simply said: “The United States is committed to supporting the people of Lebanon, and we will continue to stand by them through these unprecedented times.”“Our reality today is not promising,” President Aoun said in a televised speech to mark Independence Day, adding that Lebanon was a prisoner of corruption, political scheming and external dictations.
“If we want statehood, then we must fight corruption and this begins by imposing the forensic financial audit,” he said, adding he would not “back off” on the issue.
Aoun made a veiled criticism of the prime minister in charge of forming the government, without naming him, saying: “Is it not yet time to free the process of forming the new government from conflicts and hiding behind rescue initiatives to break the rules and standards that must be respected and applied to all in order to establish the procedural authority and its work?”
There was also criticism from other Lebanese leaders. “Independence means Lebanon’s dissociation from regional conflicts toward establishing a policy of neutrality to promote its economy,” said Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi.
Al-Rahi added: “If we form a government like its predecessors, it will produce total ruin, asking those who are hindering the formation of the government if they realize that we have lost an invaluable year of reform?”
The Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, said that the anniversary of independence “comes at a time when the nation is suffering from an unprecedented collapse in the absence of the state and the work of its institutions. We fear the greatest and worst unless a government of national salvation is formed that will gain the trust of the people and the Arab and international community, or Lebanon shall be ruined!”
The Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch for the Archdiocese of Beirut, Metropolitan Elias Audi, called on the President of the Republic to restore “the prestige of the state by adopting accountability, activating the audit policy and stopping politicians from controlling the institutions and the judiciary systems.”
“The disruption of governance is a crime. Conflict of interests, wars of mutual abolition, the liquidation of absurd accounts and the implementation of external agendas only lead to destruction,” he warned.
 

Lebanon’s student elections were a victory, but will not save the nation
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/November 23/2020
Independent student factions recently achieved major wins Lebanese university elections, a victory that was received by the majority of the Lebanese as a positive sign ahead of potential national parliamentary elections that could take place after the current term expires in Spring 2022.
Unfortunately, this optimism is totally unfounded. A proper reading of these student elections in their national context reveals the corrupt political establishment is still firmly entrenched and will likely win in any future elections.
In Lebanon, student elections are somewhat of a national sport and a long-standing tradition which takes places across university campuses every Fall. They offer an occasion for different political parties, as well as independent groups, to compete for different forms of student government and earn bragging rights both on and off campus.
For the traditional political parties, success in student elections gives them a public messaging victory that they can present as affirming their national popularity. For the anti-establishment student factions, the elections might be the only safe and democratic avenues to push through a new breed of independent voices who, in contrast to the archaic political parties, practice what they preach.
Over the years, elections in Lebanon’s main private universities – such as the American University of Beirut (AUB), Lebanese American University (LAU), and the University of Saint Joseph (USJ) – have witnessed independent students challenging the hegemony of the traditionalists. This year, which has been shaped by the onset of the October 17 2019 revolution, independents thrived as traditionalists found it difficult to appeal to their usual voter bases.
But despite this noticeable and encouraging win, it is important to take a step back and acknowledge that parliamentary elections are shaped by a range of other objective factors and might not yield a similar outcome.
A primary difference is the conditions under which the elections take place. Student elections in Lebanon’s main universities takes place under somewhat fair and transparent conditions, where physical and moral intimidation is prohibited by the university administration. Unlike the Lebanese state authorities, the university administrations will not hesitate to take disciplinary measures against any individuals or parties who try to bully their fellow students.
More importantly, the electoral system and the seat distribution for these elections are based on a different, fairer electoral system. Whereas national elections use a complicated formula to ensure all of Lebanon’s religious communities are represented by quotas, universities have a level playing field for non-affiliated independent students; AUB and LAU, for example, have proportional representation on the model of “one man, one vote.” This helps ensure that the traditional parties do not monopolize representation on campus, in contrast to in national elections.
National elections are far removed from the logic or principle of equal representation, as the various electoral laws are always tailored to ensure the hegemony of whoever is in power. The recent election in 2018 is a case in point. For a long time, many election enthusiasts have demanded the adoption of proportional representation, which was implemented in some form in 2018. However, the eventual system put in place replaced fairness with gerrymandering, which instead of empowering independents made sure to stump them once and for all. The ruling elite hammered out an electoral law that was proportional in theory but kept large electoral districts with a high electoral threshold, meaning that in reality it was impossible for non-party affiliates to break through.
Secondly, student elections are monitored and administered by the various university administrations, mainly their deans of student affairs, who have no direct stake in the outcome of the result and thus are under no obligation to meddle or to rigg the results. Unfortunately, this cannot be said for the government entities that oversee the national elections. It is customary for the majority of the cabinet, including the premier and the minister of the interior, to be entrusted with running the electoral process – even though they themselves are running for office, undermining any notion of impartiality. To add insult to injury, the appointment of an independent commission to monitor the elections was nothing but a charade; the members of the commission rubber-stamped the results despite them being riddled with irregularities and even fraud.
The role of coercion is also an important factor. On campus, the resources of the traditional political parties as well as the arms of their militias including Hezbollah are useless and cannot be used to sway the vote. In contrast, Hezbollah has no shame in suppressing the vote or even fixing the national election ballot results in the areas of the country it controls, a practice in which the Lebanese authorities were also complicit.
The Lebanese as a whole are still looking for an easy way out of their current predicament. One hope is that elections will deliver salvation. However, no amount of student council wins can change the reality that democracy cannot exist in Lebanon when the Lebanese state is controlled by the ruling oligarchs who have established a bond with Hezbollah and its weapons. This pact ensures that any thrust for democratic reform is quickly dismissed.
Until they reclaim their state, the Lebanese cannot count on elections to provide the salvation they need.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of History. His forthcoming book Conflict on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, the Maronites and Collective Memory (Edinburgh University Press) covers collective identities and the Lebanese Civil War.

Lebanon on borrowed time not addressing Hezbollah’s weapons
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 24/2020
BEIRUT: A Lebanese academic has warned politicians that the country is at risk from the group Hezbollah, despite various factions coming together to try to launch a rescue initiative, as it struggles to resolve a myriad of crises currently affecting the eastern Mediterranean state.
There has been no progress yet on the formation of a new government since the collapse of the previous administration in August, and consequently, no negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over a bailout.
American economist Steve Hanke said in a tweet on Monday: “While Venezuela continues to hold the top spot in my world inflation table, Lebanon has finally passed Zimbabwe for 2nd place. It’s rather shocking to watch Lebanon’s politicians fiddle, while Beirut burns.”
The inflation rate in Lebanon has now reached around 365 percent.
In light of this stalemate, during a press conference at the Palace of Justice in Beirut on Monday, trade unions, universities, economic organizations, labor bodies and civil society forces launched a national rescue initiative under the slogan “Recovering the State,” while joint parliamentary committees will meet on Wednesday to discuss a new electoral law.
The head of the Beirut Bar Association, Melhem Khalaf, said in the press conference: “We want to restore the state by reconfiguring the authority to rebuild the country.” Khalaf added: “The initiative is easy to implement and relates to the size of people’s pain, and is open to constructive discussion in a way that reassures all concerns.”
The head of the North Bar Association, Mohammed Al-Murad, explained the details of the rescue initiative.
He said that the initiative “includes the necessity to form an effective, purposeful, fair and reliable government of independent specialists with specific and limited legislative powers within a specific time frame.”
He added: “Government priorities should an endorsement approving the start of implementing a financial, economic and social rescue plan, achieving full justice for the explosion at the Beirut Port and the implementation of a national plan to combat the coronavirus disease pandemic and limit its spread.”
Murad said that the initiative was based on “launching the path of immediate reforms to combat all forms of corruption, auditing all independent institutions and state administrations,” as well as the creation of a Senate and adopting a new electoral law to move the country away from sectarianism.
Parliament, meanwhile, is expected to hold a session of the joint parliamentary committees to discuss a controversial electoral bill.
Speaker Nabih Berri’s bloc is pressing for the approval of a bill it presented, based on proportional representation, and which treats Lebanon as one constituency.
This issue raised concerns from Christian MPs, especially those affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces.
Edy Maalouf, an MP from the Lebanese Forces bloc, said: “Today, the country does not need such a controversial suggestion.”
He spoke of coordination between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement to “reject the proportional representation bill and treating Lebanon as one constituency.”
Mario Aoun, a Free Patriotic Movement MP, stressed his refusal “to make Lebanon one electoral constituency, although we are in favor of amending the loopholes in the current electoral law based on which the last elections were held and proved its usefulness.”
Lebanon’s Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli, who will chair the joint committee session, said: “The committees have several electoral bills, and the debate is not limited to one formula. It is better to have a law agreed upon early so that we do not reach the due date without a law.”
However, Dr. Mona Fayad, member of the Lebanese Association of Women Researchers, said that the rescue initiative “does not address the issue of illegal weapons outside the constitution, that is, Hezbollah’s weapons.”
Fayad told Arab News: “We are a country with its own borders and army. Since 2006, Hezbollah has not fired a single bullet from the south at Israel. Are we supposed to keep its shop open so that it can use it to fight here and there and not close it? Then Hezbollah comes to rule us in the name of the resistance, how can that be possible?”
**Dr. Fayad added: “How could the rescue initiative ask Parliament to implement the constitution by electing a Senate? Isn’t the current Parliament inherently against the constitution and illegal? And how can elections be held under (the threat of) weapons?
“I fear that what is happening now is a mutual collusion process between Parliament and these civilian forces.”
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 23-24/2020

AstraZeneca/Oxford Say Covid Vaccine Shows 70% Efficacy
Agence France Presse/November 23/2020
British drugs group AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford on Monday said their jointly-developed vaccine against Covid-19 has shown "an average efficacy of 70 percent" in trials. "This vaccine's efficacy and safety confirm that it will be highly effective against Covid-19 and will have an immediate impact on this public health emergency," AstraZeneca chief executive Pascal Soriot said in a statement. However the vaccine has produced lower average efficacy compared with coronavirus vaccines produced by rivals Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna which have come in above 90 percent.

US election: Trump political allies urge him to concede and begin transition
Bloomberg/November 23/2020
President Donald Trump is facing rising pressure from business leaders and prominent Republicans to begin a transition to President-Elect Joe Biden -- or even concede defeat -- as Trump’s long-shot legal challenges fail to gain traction. Several key allies for Trump appeared to lose their patience over the weekend. Blackstone Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Schwarzman, Trump’s highest-profile supporter on Wall Street, said Monday that he considers Biden the president-elect, while the New York Times reported that a group of business and finance leaders was preparing an open letter urging the start of a transition. Republican senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Kevin Cramer of North Dakota -- one of Trump’s staunchest allies -- on Sunday called for the transition to Biden to begin, while Republican Senator Pat Toomey congratulated Biden on his victory on Saturday after Trump suffered another legal defeat in Pennsylvania.
The comments show a growing chorus within the party acknowledging that Biden won the election -- or is all but certain to -- and that delaying the transition of power risks impeding critical programs like the US response to the coronavirus pandemic. Still, only a minority of Republicans have spoken out, and several have taken a hedged stance that Trump should begin the transition while continuing his legal fight. But even the court challenges are losing support. Longtime Trump adviser Chris Christie said Sunday the president’s legal team had become a “national embarrassment after pushing conspiracy theories about voter fraud in a series of bizarre media appearances.
Larry Hogan, the Republican governor of Maryland who’s an outspoken Trump critic, responded to an insult the president tweeted about him by telling Trump to “stop golfing and concede.
Other national-level figures, most notably Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have declined to speak out so far. On Monday, a group of leading GOP national security experts pressured Republican lawmakers to demand President Trump concede the election and immediately begin the transition in a statement signed by more than 100 leaders, the Washington Post reported.
The signers included former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, who served under President George W. Bush, former CIA Director Michael Hayden and John D. Negroponte, who served as director of national intelligence.The president’s time is running out, as states including Michigan and Pennsylvania prepare to certify their election results as soon as Monday, sealing Biden’s victory. Pennsylvania Republicans filed another lawsuit on Sunday seeking to block certification.
“It’s past time to start a transition, to at least cooperate with the transition. I’d rather have a president that has more than one day to prepare, should Joe Biden, you know, end up winning this, Cramer told Meet The Press on Sunday. Cramer said the election is “very likely over but isn’t yet over, and gave Trump leeway to keep up his legal fight. “I don’t know why we’re so easily offended by a president that’s carrying out all of his legal options in court, he said.More than 100 executives plan to send a memo on Monday demanding that Emily Murphy, head of the General Services Administration, affirm that Biden has won the election and issue the paperwork required for his team to begin a transition, the Times reported. Schwarzman’s public acknowledgment of Biden’s victory was first reported by Axios.
“I supported President Trump and the strong economic path he built, Schwarzman said in a statement. “Like many in the business community, I am ready to help President-elect Biden and his team as they confront the significant challenges of rebuilding our post-Covid economy.
Biden’s team has become more vocal in calling for the transition to start, warning that the delay could impede the rollout of a coronavirus vaccine and hinder other key government programs. Biden plans to begin naming his cabinet this week. Trump has pursued a range of unconventional moves to undo the election result and has frequently claimed without substantiation that the vote was rigged. Trump has even pressured some state lawmakers to overrule voters and award their states’ Electoral College votes to him instead of Biden, a move that no senator has backed and Toomey called illegitimate.
Most senators, though, have stayed silent, avoiding the risk of angering the outgoing president who remains popular with Republican voters and who has a record of attacking those who cross him politically.
Angering Trump and his supporters risks suppressing GOP turnout in a pair of runoff elections in Georgia that will determine whether Republicans keep a majority in the Senate. On Sunday, Senator David Perdue of Georgia backed Trump’s request for a third count of Georgia’s ballots, this time including a review of signatures on absentee ballot envelopes — even though the ballots have long since been separated from those envelopes to ensure voter privacy.
Trump has increasingly sparred with Republicans who demand proof of fraud, such as House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney, or who say they think Biden won, such as Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. The president is now openly stoking a primary challenge against DeWine.
Trump’s also racing ahead to lock in his policies, such as accelerating troop withdrawals from foreign posts and ratcheting up tension with China. He briefly took part in Group of 20 sessions this weekend, but left each day’s program early to head to his golf course.
Republican dissent had been growing before the weekend. Senator Mitt Romney said Trump is trying to “subvert the will of the people. Retiring Senator Lamar Alexander said Friday that Biden “looks like he has a very good chance of winning. Former president George W. Bush has also congratulated Biden.
But Trump’s attempts suffered another blow Saturday, when a federal judge in Pennsylvania threw out a lawsuit aimed at blocking certification of the state’s election results. Toomey said that Trump had “exhausted all plausible legal options in Pennsylvania, and that it was time to concede that Biden had won.
Calls for Trump to either present evidence or concede have also grown in the aftermath of a press conference Thursday, featuring lawyers Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis and Sidney Powell.
They alleged a range of unspecified fraud, with Powell accusing Venezuela, China and George Soros of conspiring to defraud American voters and insisting that Trump had won. By Sunday, the Trump campaign had distanced itself from Powell. In a joint statement, Giuliani and Ellis said that Powell isn’t a lawyer for the Trump campaign or Trump personally.
Ellis had described the three lawyers as Trump’s “elite strike force team at the news conference. But even if legal challenges continue, many Republicans say the transition process should still be underway to ensure a smooth handover on critical issues like the coronavirus task force’s work fighting the pandemic.
“Clearly, it would be better if the Biden task force was able to coordinate, learn from and provide insight to and from the White House task force. It would just be better, said Michael Leavitt, a former Utah governor who served in Bush’s cabinet, including as health secretary. He, like many Republicans, has argued that the legal fight doesn’t preclude a transition process from starting. “I’m one of those who believes these processes can be carried out simultaneously, and should be.
Moncef Slaoui, one of the senior officials leading the Trump administration’s push to fast-track a vaccine, told Meet The Press on Sunday that he’d been instructed not to share any details with anyone not in the administration. He said he thought the process would go smoothly regardless.
“All the decisions are made. The train is running. Whether one administration or the other, it doesn’t frankly make a difference. I hope there is no disruption in any way, Slaoui said.

Saudi FM denies Netanyahu NEOM visit: ‘There were no Israelis present’
Mohammed Alyahya, Al Arabiya English/23 November ,2020
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan denied Israeli media reports Monday that a meeting occurred between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Israel’s Army Radio and Kan Radio both reported that the Israeli Prime Minister and the head of Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, Yosef Meir Cohen, secretly flew to NEOM from Tel Aviv to meet Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Reuters earlier reported. “I received and bid farewell to Secretary of State Pompeo in the airport in NEOM and attended his meeting with the Crown Prince. There were no Israelis present,” Saudi Arabian foreign minister Prince Faisal told Al Arabiya English. Prince Faisal had previously denied rumors that a meeting between the two leaders took place in February.

Israeli Reports Say Netanyahu Met Saudi Crown Prince, Riyadh Denies
Agence France Presse/23 November ,2020
Israeli media reports and a government source said Monday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held landmark talks in Saudi Arabia with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but Riyadh denied any such meeting took place. The reports fueled speculation that the Jewish state may be getting closer to normalizing ties with the biggest Gulf power after its historic US-brokered deals since September with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Israeli public broadcaster Kan and other media said Netanyahu and Mossad spy agency chief Yosef Meir Cohen had met Saudi de facto ruler Prince Mohammed, together with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the futuristic Red Sea city of NEOM on Sunday. An Israeli government source who requested anonymity confirmed the reports to AFP. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan then strongly denied the report which suggested Saudi Arabia was moving away from its decades-old stance of refusing dialogue with the Jewish state until the Palestinian conflict is resolved. "I have seen press reports about a purported meeting between HRH the Crown Prince and Israeli officials during the recent visit by @SecPompeo," Prince Faisal tweeted.
"No such meeting occurred. The only officials present were American and Saudi." Pompeo has confirmed he was in NEOM as part of a Middle East Tour and met with Prince Mohammed, who is widely known by his initials MBS. The U.S. State Department declined to confirm a three-way meeting.
Netanyahu, asked about the Saudi trip during a public meeting Monday of his Likud party, said: "Are you serious? I have never commented on these things and I do not intend to start now."
Abraham Accords -
Israel's normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain, known as the Abraham Accords, were brokered under U.S. President Donald Trump, who leaves office in less than two months. Sudan has also agreed in principle to normalize ties with Israel. A delegation from the Jewish state headed to Khartoum on Monday, the first since the deal was announced last month. There has been speculation Washington may push for other Arab states to join the accords before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in. The Palestinians have condemned them and urged Arab states to hold firm until Israel ends its occupation of Palestinian territory and agrees to the creation of a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia -- a close U.S. ally and oil-rich buyer of military goods -- has publicly insisted it will stick to the decades-old Arab League position of not having ties with Israel until it reaches a peace deal with the Palestinians.
But some experts have said that Biden's upcoming inauguration may have created urgency in Riyadh, which has dealt discreetly with Israel over a joint desire to contain common foe Iran.
Damaging leak?
Prior to the Abraham Accords, Israel only had peace treaties with two Arab nations, its neighbors Egypt and Jordan. But in late August, Netanyahu said Israel was holding "unpublicized meetings with Arab and Muslim leaders to normalize relations with the state of Israel", without naming any countries.
Amid speculation that smaller Arab states like Oman were also interested in a deal, Saudi Arabi has stood out as the key target for Israel, given the kingdom's wealth and influence. Sunni Arab states and especially Israel worry that Biden may seek to revive the Iran nuclear deal agreed between Tehran and world powers during Barack Obama's presidency that was scrapped by Trump. Under its deal with Israel, the Emiratis also secured rights to purchase advanced U.S. military hardware, something likely attractive to the Saudis, said Yoel Guzansky of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies think-tank.
Guzanky, a former national security aid to Netanyahu, said the Saudis were denying the talks to limit "damage in their (domestic) public opinion", but that Riyadh has plenty to gain from a US-brokered deal with Israel, including rights to purchase even more "sophisticated weapons." Trump's administration has downplayed human rights issues in international diplomacy and was particularly cautious about criticizing Saudi Arabia's record, notably over the murder by Saudi agents of prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Multiple Israeli analysts have said the Biden administration would face a backlash from the progressive left faction of his Democratic party if it pushed for an Israeli-Saudi peace deal without meaningful human rights commitments from Riyadh. Speaking to AFP in the days after the November 3 election, Netanyahu's former envoy to Washington, Michael Oren, said it would likely not be "worth Biden's while to take on his party" over a Saudi-Israel pact.

Netanyahu meets Saudi crown prince MBS, Pompeo in Saudi Arabia/The plane returned to Israel after only a few hours.

Jerusalem Post/November 23/2020
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Neom, Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Israeli sources confirmed. Netanyahu used a private plane belonging to businessman Udi Angel, which he has used for past diplomatic trips. The plane left Israel at 5 p.m. on Sunday and returned after midnight. The Israeli and Saudi sides discussed Iran and normalization, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Saudi source. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan denied the meeting took place on Twitter, saying only Saudi and American officials were present. Yet Education Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed the meeting, calling it an “amazing achievement” and “a matter of great importance” in an interview with Army Radio. The trip was kept tightly under wraps as it was planned for over a month, with Netanyahu not informing Defense Minister Benny Gantz or Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi before it took place. "Gantz is playing politics while the prime minister is making peace," Netanyahu's social media adviser Topaz Luk tweeted as reports of the visit came out. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also met with Netanyahu and MBS, as the crown prince is known, in Neom, a new city in northern Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea meant to show of the Kingdoms’ technological advancement. Pompeo has encouraged Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to follow the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Thus far, Saudi Arabia has only allowed Israel to fly over its airspace. On Sunday, however, Prince Faisal told Reuters that normalization with Israel would only come after "a permanent and comprehensive peace agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis including the establishment of a Palestinian state on 1967 borders."
The minister said his country has "supported normalization with Israel for a long time," pointing out that they authored the Saudi Peace Initiative that would have the Arab world establish ties with Israel in exchange for their vision of a two-state solution.
US President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility that Saudi Arabia would join the Abraham Accords Israel signed with other Gulf States, but soon after, reports came out of a generational divide, by which the 84-year-old King Salman remained loyal to the traditional Saudi position regarding normalization and the Palestinians, while the 35-year-old MBS supports open ties with Israel. However, soon after, Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, the former longtime ambassador to the US, gave an interview to the Saudi-backed news channel Al-Arabiya sharply criticizing the Palestinian leadership.
Meetings between Netanyahu and senior Saudi officials had been discussed several times in the past, going back nearly 10 years. A former official close to the prime minister said that early in the previous decade, there were attempts to have Netanyahu meet top Saudi officials on an American ship in the Red Sea, which did not come to fruition. The meeting would have taken place around the same time as the coronavirus cabinet meeting was expected to take place. The Prime Minister's Office released a statement explaining that the meeting would be pushed off because ministers Izhar Shay and Ze'ev Elkin needed more time to work on their digital surveillance program, which turned out to be a cover story.The Prime Minister’s Office did not comment on the matter.

Israel’s El Al Airlines to fly 14 weekly flights from Tel Aviv to Dubai from Dec.

Reuters/23 November ,2020
Israel and the UAE agreed in September to establish diplomatic relations, paving the way for economic cooperation.
Subject to regulatory approvals, Israeli flag carrier El Al plans to operate three flights a day on Sundays and Thursdays and two flights on other days of the week. Flights will be on Boeing 737-900 and 787 Dreamliner aircraft, it said. El Al noted that until the mutual visa entry agreement enters into force between the countries, or until there is another bilateral solution, Israeli travelers can enter the UAE with a foreign passport that allows entry to the destination and/or receive a valid visa prior to the flight. Israel’s borders have for the most part been closed to foreigners during the COVID-19 pandemic, with only Israeli passport holders allowed entry. Smaller rivals Arkia and Israir have said they plan to begin flights to Dubai next month. State-owned Dubai airline flydubai also said it would start twice-daily fights between the UAE’s business hub and Tel Aviv this month. El Al and Etihad Airways, the United Arab Emirates’ national airline, last week signed a deal to explore deeper cooperation such as joint codesharing between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv and other destinations. Etihad has said it intends to start daily flights between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv starting on March 28 next year.

Turkey summons EU, Italy, Germany envoys over weapons search of its ship to Libya
Tuqa Khalid/Al Arabiya English/23 November ,2020
Turkey summoned the envoys to Ankara of the European Union, Italy and Germany on Monday to protest over a German attempt to search a Turkish cargo ship for a suspected arms shipment to Libya, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. “The German warship “Hamburg”, as part of this operation, hailed and interrogated in detail the Turkish-flagged commercial vessel “M/V Roseline A”, which was transporting paint, paint-related material and humanitarian aid from the Port of Ambarlı to Misrata,” the ministry said in its statement. “We deeply regret that our vessel, which as became apparent has not violated the arms embargo, was withheld from her route for hours under severe weather conditions and that during the inspection the crew were treated as if they were criminals. We protest this unauthorized and forceful act,” the ministry added. “Rights to compensation of the relevant natural and legal persons for the damages and losses that may arise from this act naturally remain reserved.” “It is essential to obtain flag state consent before interfering with commercial ships in international waters. UN Security Council resolutions on the Libyan arms embargo do not overrule this obligation.” Earlier, Germany accused Turkey of preventing German forces belonging to an EU military mission from fully searching the ship. Soldiers from the frigate Hamburg, part of an EU mission enforcing a UN arms embargo, boarded the Roseline A overnight but withdrew after Turkey raised objections with the EU mission, which had ordered the search, the German Defense Ministry said. Turkey released footage showing armed men in military uniform marshalling sailors with their hands on their heads on the bridge of what it said was the Roseline A, at sea southwest of the Greek Peloponnese peninsula. The incident comes at a time of friction between Turkey and the European Union. The EU's foreign policy chief has said ties are reaching a "watershed moment" over Turkish oil prospecting in waters claimed by Greece and Cyprus, and that sanctions could be imposed next month. Germany said that, after four hours had passed with no reply to a request to board, it was standard practice to consider this as implicit permission. "All procedures were followed correctly," a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said. The German Defense Ministry said the soldiers had not found anything suspicious by the time they were ordered off the ship.

Europe Threatens 'Measures' against Parties Obstructing Libya Peace
Agence France Presse/23 November ,2020
European states involved in efforts to end the conflict in Libya on Monday threatened sanctions against any parties that harm the fragile peace process.
Britain, France, Germany and Italy in a joint statement urged "all Libyan and international parties to refrain from any parallel and uncoordinated initiative" that risked undermining the UN-led efforts. Their statement said they were "ready to take measures against those who obstruct" the process, plunder state funds or commit rights abuses. It did not name other states but Europe has in the past accused both Russia and Turkey of interfering in Libya. Moscow has been accused of backing mercenaries fighting the UN-backed Tripoli Government of National Accord (GNA) while Turkey has deployed its military as well as drones to back the GNA. The four European countries said they welcomed the roadmap agreed by the Libyan parties to pave the way to national elections scheduled for December 24 following an October ceasefire deal. "This is an important step to restore Libya's sovereignty and the democratic legitimacy of its institutions," the statement said. It said that the four countries shared the opposition of Libyans "to all foreign interference, and support their willingness to come together in peaceful and patriotic dialogue". French President Emmanuel Macron has been a particularly vocal critic of Turkey's role in the Libya conflict, accusing it of seeking new influence in the eastern Mediterranean, in one of a number of issues that have triggered grave tensions between Paris and Ankara. Last month's ceasefire formally ended fighting between forces of the Ankara-backed GNA and those of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar, who was long favoured by Russia. The ceasefire aims to end years of conflict following the 2011 killing of dictator Moamer Kadhafi. Stephanie Williams, UN acting special envoy for Libya, said last week that rival forces in Libya had failed to begin withdrawing as required under an October ceasefire agreement.

Saudi-led Coalition Says Huthi Attack on Jeddah Oil Facility Targets Global Supplies
Associated Press/23 November ,2020
Yemen's Houthi rebels said they struck a Saudi oil facility in the port city of Jeddah on Monday with a new cruise missile, just hours after the kingdom finished hosting its virtual Group of 20 leaders summit. An unnamed official at the kingdom's Ministry of Energy acknowledged the attack in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency late Monday. It came after videos of a small explosion at a Saudi Arabian Oil Co. facility in Jeddah circulated on social media all day. A projectile struck a fuel tank at the Jeddah distribution station and ignited a fire, the official said. Col. Turki al-Maliki, a spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, blamed the Yemeni rebels for what he called "a cowardly attack which not only targets the kingdom, but also targets the nerve center of the world's energy supply and the security of the global economy." U.N. chief Antonio Guterres and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation have condemned the attack, according to the Al-Arabiya news network. Brig. Gen. Yehia Sarie, a Houthi military spokesman, tweeted that the rebels fired a new Quds-2 cruise missile at the facility. He posted a satellite image online that matched Aramco's North Jeddah Bulk Plant, where oil products are stored in tanks. That facility is just southeast of Jeddah's King Abdulaziz International Airport, a major airfield that handles incoming Muslim pilgrims en route to nearby Mecca. Online videos appeared to show a tank farm similar to the bulk plant on fire, with wailing sirens heard and police cars alongside a highway by the facility. Details of the videos posted predawn Monday matched the general layout of the bulk plant. However, passers-by could not see damage to the tank farm from the highway running beside the facility later Monday morning. A satellite photo from Planet Labs Inc. later published by TankerTrackers.com appeared to show damage to one of the tanks at the bulk plant and what appeared to be fire-suppression foam on the ground near it.
The Saudi energy official said that firefighters had brought the blaze under control and the strike had not resulted in any casualties or damage to oil supplies. Earlier, the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah said it wasn't aware of any casualties from the claimed attack. It urged Americans to "review immediate precautions to take in the event of an attack and stay alert in case of additional future attacks." Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's oil giant that now has a sliver of its worth traded publicly on the stock market, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Its stock traded slightly up Monday on Riyadh's Tadawul stock exchange as crude oil prices remained steady above $40 a barrel. The claimed attack comes just after a visit by outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the kingdom to see Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , a meeting that reportedly included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The kingdom also just hosted the annual G-20 summit, which concluded Sunday. A Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthis since March 2015, months after the rebels seized Yemen's capital, Sanaa. The war has ground into a stalemate since, with Saudi Arabia facing international criticism for its airstrikes killing civilians.The Houthis have used Quds, or "Jerusalem," missiles to target Saudi Arabia in the past. The Quds-1 has a copy of a small, Czech-made TJ-100 jet engine, with a range of 700 kilometers (435 miles). United Nations experts have said they don't believe the missiles are built in Yemen and instead have been sold or traded to them in violation of an arms embargo. Iran uses a copy of TJ-100 engines in its drone program. U.N. experts, Arab countries and the West say Iran supplies arms to the rebels, allegations denied by Tehran. The Quds-1 was used in a missile-and-drone strike on the heart of the kingdom's oil industry in 2019 that shook global energy markets. The U.S. believes Iran carried out that attack amid a series of escalating incidents last year between Tehran and Washington, something Tehran denies.

Conflict over Muslim Brotherhood still separating Egypt, Turkey
The Arab Weekly/November 23/2020
CAIRO – Well-informed Egyptian sources revealed that the close relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia did not prevent “each country from keeping a margin of independence to move as it sees fit at the level of the region.”
Thus, two days ago, Riyadh showed an apparent flexibility towards Turkey, while Cairo has not yet taken any specific step towards Ankara to indicate a reaction to the many political messages sent by senior Turkish officials.
The sources told The Arab Weekly that “the Egyptian leadership likes to proceed slowly and cautiously and not take the initiative in this kind of complex crisis, especially when the components of the crisis are unstable and controlled by different parties. It prefers to bet on the time factor, which can create a reality with ill-suited colours.”The sources indicated that “Egypt understands the motives for the change in the Saudi position” towards Ankara, given Riyadh’s assessments that a positive development will not harm its interests and goals at this delicate stage. The problem, according to the sources is that the Turkish leadership “is not sincere and will never have completely clear intentions. They kept the file of Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination open intentionally so that they can use it for political gains at any moment.”
The sources said that Egypt and Saudi Arabia had in the past differt readings of what was happening in both Syria and Yemen, not to mention Iran, and yet their relations were not affected at any stage because of their shared understandings on the broad outlines that maintain their alliance.
Cairo and Riyadh intersect with Ankara in the files of Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. The first file is rather a major problem, and Riyadh seems to be willing to overlook a good chunk of the obstacles in that file if the current US administration is determined to find an appropriate settlement for the crisis and not leave it to the watch of the new administration.
Cairo, however, has a different angle on the dilemma with Qatar, in that this dilemma is intertwined with the second file, namely Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood. From an Egyptian perspective, the crisis with Qatar cannot be defused without reaching a deal that includes the Brotherhood file in which Ankara and Doha have similar views. The issue becomes even more difficult in light of the fact that Turkey is dealing with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey as a project for an Egyptian “government in exile” waiting for the opportunity to return home and resume pursuing their initial goals. This in turn represents a covert questioning of the legitimacy of the current Egyptian regime, and justifies embracing the Egyptian Brotherhood, despite all of its failures.
The sources said that Cairo is waiting for what will emerge from the recent phone conversation between the Saudi monarch, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan.
Senior Saudi officials have already announced that “there was no problem with Turkey,” and there is persistent talk about a dialogue already in motion between the two countries.
The countries boycotting Qatar consider Egypt to be the major counterweight to Turkey’s support for Doha, since Cairo, with its human and political weight, will always be an obstacle to any Turkish expansion in the region.
Turkey, however, has invested heavily economically, politically and in the media on its project, presenting it as a plan for radical change. This in turn means that the depth of the crisis between the two countries is beyond the stage of being resolved by a couple of reconciliation sessions.
Egyptian political sources ruled out that Qatar would back down from its support for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and its efforts to restore their rule in Egypt, even if Turkey was able to change some of its stances towards Egypt. The sources indicated in a statement to The Arab Weekly that Cairo had drawn a red line for Ankara in Libya, which has held up until now, while Turkey has placed a similar line in the trenches of its Muslim Brotherhood project, and it is still holding as well. What Cairo is doing is waiting to see how far can this line hold up in the midst of a remarkable ebb and flow of the situation.
The sporadic messages recently sent by Ankara to Cairo did not explicitly address the fate of the exiled Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and focused on hints related to the eastern Mediterranean and Libya issues, in which Cairo had already taken steps to keep Turkey at bay and resist its provocations by forming a regional and international safety net, in which any change needs great coordination efforts with different parties.
Observers say that the card of the Brotherhood is important for both Turkey and Egypt, and none of them will neglect it, except under certain pressures or tempting gains. The Turkish regime believes that sacrificing the Egyptian Brotherhood will cost it dearly, since it espouses the same ideology and approach to power as the Brotherhood, and giving all of that up is a heavy price to pay, unless, of course, the alternative offer is much more generous.
Cairo is not interested in settling the Brotherhood file with Ankara, because it is a card that gives it a broad space for continuing on the path of its hard-line policy towards the Islamist current funded by Turkey and Qatar, and any reconciliation with Ankara would implicitly lead to an easing up of this tough policy. Observers do not rule out a sudden change in Egyptian calculations regarding the Brotherhood file due to the arrival of Democratic President Joe Biden to the White House, and thus the probability of reaching an understanding with Turkey regarding this file in the near future becomes rather strong, because doing so may rid both Cairo and Ankara of one of the bothersome tools of political pressure on each party in the coming period.
They add that the dilemma and the solution at the same time lie in the fact that some Western countries may decide to classify the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, in light of the recent bloody terrorist attacks that occurred in France and Austria. Egypt may find in this development the perfect opportunity to go on undermining the group, and Turkey will be forced to increase the distance between it and Egypt so as to exclude trading off the Islamist current.
Cairo-based Turkish researcher, Mohamed Obaidallah, said that Erdogan is preparing to make an about-turn towards the West to ease off his tense relationship with it. He, Erdogan, fears the scenario where the anti-Erdogan campaign in Europe intensifies to such an extent that Joe Biden will jump on its bandwagon with enthusiasm. The Turkish president had already received warnings about the consequences of continuing his transgressions, and even might face now sanctions for his previous blackmailing.
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, Obaidullah considered that such a turnabout could give Cairo a good opportunity for further political movement, because it means that Erdogan will not be as willing as before to exercise his passion for creating pressure on some countries by his involvement in crises and hot spots here and there, including Libya, which would represent a great threat to the Egyptian national security.
The Egyptian government tends not to abandon its wait-and-see policy in dealing with developments in the region, before choosing the best path to follow, usually the one with least risks and damages, especially as the Middle East will soon come under the scrutiny of a new administration at the White House. Egyptian sources who spoke to The Arab Weekly did not expecta change to occur in Cairo’s current position, regardless of the extent to which the Saudi open talks with Turkey could reach. Egypt’s battle with Ankara began years before Riyadh’s, and the escalation processes went on in separate episodes, related to each country’s calculations. So, if the central knot in Egypt’s crisis with Turkey lies in the latter’s embrace of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and supporting extremists, then it will also be the key to resolving the crisis or perpetuating it.

Syria's Assad: Lone Survivor of Arab Spring
Agence France Presse/23 November ,2020
When the Arab revolts that were sweeping the region and toppling autocrats like dominoes reached Syria, Bashar al-Assad's days at the helm looked numbered. Ten years on however, he has defied the odds, surviving international isolation and the temporary loss of two thirds of the national territory to claw his way back into relevance and hold on to power. It seemed doubtful in March 2011, when protests broke out in Syria, that his ruling Alawite minority would be capable of withstanding the tide of uprisings dramatically reshaping the region. The leadership mettle of the London-trained ophthalmologist, a reluctant heir when his iron-fisted father Hafez died in 2000, was also being questioned. But his patience and cool combined with myriad factors -- including his grip on the security apparatus, the West's disengagement, and the support of Russia and Iran -- to save him from defeat, analysts say. "Years after the whole world demanded he leave and thought he would be toppled, today it wants to reconcile with him," veteran Lebanese politician Karim Pakradouni said.
'Long game' -
"Assad knew how to play the long game," said the politician, who has often acted as a mediator between the Damascus regime and various Lebanese parties. In 2011, Assad chose to repress peaceful protests with force, sparking a complex war involving rebels, jihadists and world powers in which any fighter not on his side was called a "terrorist". The conflict has since killed more than 380,000 people, displaced more than half the country's pre-war population, and seen tens of thousands thrown behind bars. Ordinary Syrians have seen food prices soar and the local currency plummet in a desperate economic crisis the government has blamed on Western sanctions. But Assad is still in power and, after a string of Russia-backed victories, his forces are back in control of around 70 percent of the country. The Syrian president always insisted he would come out on top.
"He has never faltered. He has stood firm on all his stances without concession, and has managed to take back most of Syria with military might," Pakradouni said.
Loyal army
Despite tens of thousands of defections, Syria's army also played a major role in his survival, he said. "This is what made Assad an exception in the so-called Arab Spring." In Tunisia, the army abandoned Zine El Abidine Ben Ali when street pressure mounted, Egypt's military also let go of Hosni Mubarak, and in Libya, top brass had already turned against Moamer Kadhafi before his demise. Analyst Thomas Pierret said: "Army leadership remained loyal because for decades it had been stacked with relatives of Assad and fellow Alawites"."The latter probably made up more than 80 percent of the officer corps by 2011 and held virtually every single influential position within it," said the researcher at the Institute of Research and Study on the Arab and Muslim Worlds. A Syrian researcher based in Damascus who asked to remain anonymous said Assad's "determination and rigour" were also key.
"He was able to concentrate all decisions in his hands and ensure the army was entirely on his side," the researcher said, adding the regime's structure ensured nobody could build up enough influence to tee up a challenge.Instead, Assad gambled on Syria's complex social structure -- ethnic divisions between Arabs and Kurds, as well as religious differences between Sunni Muslims, his Alawite clan, and other minorities. "He benefitted from people's fear of chaos, from his own (Alawite) environment's fear about their survival if he fell," the Syrian researcher said.
No alternative
When Islamists and jihadists became more prominent, he sought to present himself as a protector of minorities including Christians. But Assad also benefitted from the absence of any effective political opposition, the researcher said. In 2012, as Assad's forces were losing on the ground, more than 100 countries recognised an opposition alliance, known as the Syrian National Coalition, as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. Assad appeared increasingly isolated and many regional and world powers, betting on his downfall, slapped his regime with a raft of sanctions and turned him into a global pariah. But Syria's domestic and exiled political opposition failed to present a united front, or a credible alternative to Assad with which the international community could engage. The armed opposition became increasingly fractured as the conflict evolved, and Assad was able to instrumentalise the rise of jihadist groups to cast himself as a rampart against terrorism.
US failure to use force
The rebels needed air power to help them, but the West wanted to avoid a Syrian repeat of the NATO fiasco in Libya. As years went by, Assad grew increasingly confident that no US warplanes would come anywhere near Damascus. In 2013, following an alleged regime chemical attack on two rebel-held areas outside Damascus that killed more than 1,400 people, then US president Barack Obama balked at air strikes to punish the crossing of a "red line" he himself had set. "The Obama administration was not interested in the Syrian conflict," Pierret said. "It had been elected on the promise that it would withdraw from Iraq, hence was reluctant to return to the Middle East." A US-led coalition did launch strikes in Syria the following year, but that was to back Kurdish-led fighters battling the Islamic State group whose newly-proclaimed "caliphate" had become the focus of global attention.
Russia stepped in the year after in support of Assad and launched its first air raids in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict. It "seized a historical opportunity to retrieve its lost superpower status by filling a strategic void left by Obama's partial disengagement from the region," Pierret said.
- 'Impossible equation' -
Once clamouring for Assad to leave, Western powers are now eager for a political solution to stem the conflict before presidential elections next summer. "Today the Syrian regime cannot be accepted back into the international system, but also cannot remain outside it," the Damascus-based researcher said. "This impossible equation will leave us in a quandary for years to come, without solution or stability," he said. Without a political solution to unlock international reconstruction funds, the Syrian people will continue to pay the price of the country's "slow bleeding out", he said. Assad is already in his third decade in power at 55 and a fourth mandate in 2021 looks all but guaranteed, as tens of thousands of the Syrians who peacefully protested to demand his removal almost a decade ago are now exiled, jailed or dead.
 

Palestinians slam Pompeo over pro-settlement efforts
AP/23 November ,2020
US actions ‘will not change international consensus,’ says former UN envoy
AMMAN: Palestinian officials have downplayed the effectiveness of a statement by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his recent visit to Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The statement included a move to allow products made in the occupied territories to be labeled “Made in Israel,” a clear contradiction to recent UN Security Council resolutions and efforts by the EU to reject such labeling. Nasser Al-Kiddwa, former Palestinian envoy to the UN, told Arab News that the US efforts are “dangerous,” despite being ineffective. “This is a dangerous move even though it will not have much of an effect and is reversible,” he said. In harsh comments, Al-Kiddwa said that, while President Donald Trump’s administration is keen to help Israelis and settlers, the country’s efforts constitute helping Israel “commit a war crime.” “While the Trump team wants to support settlements and settlers, their action makes the US an accomplice in a war crime,” he said. Al-Kiddwa said the Pompeo statement violates UN Council Resolution 2334, which calls for differentiating between the West Bank and Israel. He said it was also a clear violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention. Jamal Dajani, a lecturer at San Francisco State university, said the Trump administration is not “recognizing the reality on the ground,” but rather creating its own fictitious reality by implementing Benjamin Netanyahu’s settler-colonial vision. Dajani, who previously served as director of strategic communications and media in the Palestinian prime minister’s office, said the “true reality on the ground” is that Area C in the West Bank is an internationally recognized occupied territory. He added that the presence of Israeli colonial settlements in the region is a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which states: “The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.” Al-Kiddwa, who is a member of the Fatah Central Committee, told Arab News that the US action will not alter the international consensus. “This is a biased administration that does not care about international law or the future of the region.” He called on the newly elected administration in the US to reverse the decision. “As a world citizen, I believe that the new administration must reverse all the decisions that were carried out without coordination with the US Congress, which are in clear violation of the way things are carried out,” he said. Wadie Abunassar, a Haifa-based political analyst and the director of the International Centre for Consultations, told Arab News that the Trump administration has ignored the more than 7 million Palestinians to the west of the Jordan River. “This administration repeatedly damaged US chances to be perceived as an honest broker by the vast majority of Middle East residents. The US would do well by respecting international law and encouraging Israel to do so.” Senior Palestinian officials contacted by Arab News said that the gifts being bestowed on the Netanyahu government will not change anything on the ground. “Trump and Pompeo are playing in lost time and their actions will not change anything regarding the occupied territories.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 23-24/2020

Gantz: Netanyahu hurt Israel by leaking Saudi trip/Defense and foreign ministers left in dark on PM's Saudi trip
Gil Hoffman/Jerusalem Post/November 23/2020
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not inform Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz or Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi when he went to Saudi Arabia on Sunday night, political sources revealed on Monday.
Netanyahu continued the trend of not informing Gantz and Ashkenazi of key diplomatic developments. He also did not inform them in advance of the agreements he reached with United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Mossad chief Yossi Cohen went to Saudi Arabia with Netanyahu and US Secetary of State Mike Pompeo to meet with Saudi Crown Prime Muhammad bin Salman and not Gantz, who is minister of defense.
Gantz criticized Netanyahu, not for not telling him about the visit before it took place but for telling the world about it afterward. "Leaking the secret flight of the prime minister was irresponsible," Gantz said. "That is not what I would do as prime minister, and that is not how I have ever behaved. I think the citizens of Israel should be worried." Sources close to Gantz and Ashkenazi said they were not upset about being left in the dark again. “It is improper that I was not told of the deal in advance but what matters is that the deal was made at all,” Gantz told The Jerusalem Post in September about the UAE deal. “There is a difference between a basic surprise out of nowhere, being astounded, which is not what this was, and a situational surprise, that it happened now." Gantz criticized Netanyahu for postponing Sunday's security cabinet meeting from Sunday to Monday. It turned out the reason for the delay was the flight to Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu's associates criticized Gantz for forming a ministerial committee to investigate the purchase of submarines while Netanyahu was on the way to Saudi Arabia. "While Gantz is playing politics, Netanyahu is making peace," Netanyahu's social media adviser Topaz Luk wrote on Twitter.

Netanyahu trip to Saudi Arabia shows importance of Israeli-Saudi ties
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/November 23/2020
While Riyadh has suffered diplomatic setbacks on the world stage in recent years, it has been trying to shore up support.
A reported trip by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Saudi Arabia on Sunday showcased the importance of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties in the last months of the Trump administration. This is important for numerous reasons, including regional alliances and security and economic ties that are flowering between Israel the Gulf states after the Abraham Accords.
Israeli prime minister adviser Topaz Luk tweeted about Netanyahu “doing peace.” KAN correspondent Amichai Stein tweeted Monday morning that the prime minister traveled to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Pompeo tweeted yesterday about his “Constructive visit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in NEOM today. The United States and Saudi Arabia have come a long way since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Al Saud first laid the foundation for our ties 75 years ago.”
Haaretz reported the secret flight. Avi Scharf reported about the unusual business jet flight that left Israel and flew to Saudi Arabia and back.
The meeting came as Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at an Aramco installation in Jeddah, which is far south of Neom, where the apparent meeting took place. Boris Johnson had noted during the recent G20, hosted by Saudi Arabia, that he wished he could have visited.
In this sense the center of the story is also about Saudi Arabia’s future. Riyadh has been talking more about climate change and trying to showcase the city of the future, the planned city of Neom which will cost hundreds of billions to build but will show what Saudi Arabia’s future can be.
WHILE RIYADH has suffered diplomatic setbacks on the world stage in recent years, it has been trying to shore up support. Working with the current US administration and supporting peaceful outreach from Bahrain and the UAE to Israel have been part of that. Saudi Arabia was the main engine behind the Arab peace initiative of 2002 and supported the concept of peace and normalization with Israel, with a Palestinian state being created. It doesn’t want to go back on that promise.
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The UAE, however, has posited that peace has helped stop Israeli annexation. Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the US and Hend al-Otaiba, the spokesperson at the Foreign Ministry who recently penned an op-ed in Tablet, have stressed this point.
The Emirates and Bahrain are deeply investing in coexistence and interfaith initiatives, and Israelis are running to embrace them. Saudi Arabia, the larger of the countries and a global power in the Muslim world, has been more cautious, but has the same overall agenda as it speaks about reform and change.
However, Saudi Arabia has challenges abroad. It has been critiqued for human rights abuses in recent years, especially in the wake of breaking relations with Qatar in 2017. Qatar and Turkey have mobilized state media and allies in Western governments, academia and media to portray Saudi Arabia as a human rights violator. The truth is more complex. Riyadh has been a monarchy for the last century and has had the same human rights issues in the 1990s as it has today.
The sudden daylight in relations that Riyadh feels from Western powers is about more than just an objective view of the situation in the kingdom, it is about some agendas being pushed by those in the West who seek a redress to decades of the West being close to Middle East Gulf countries. There are also claims that those who are more close to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood have driven this narrative, trying to portray Riyadh more negatively than Qatar and Turkey.
THE RESULT has been much closer visible work between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as between the UAE, Bahrain, India, Jordan, Greece and Egypt and Israel. This system of countries is juxtaposed with the Iranian alliance that includes its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and the Turkey-Qatar alliance that includes Hamas.
These countries work on opposite sides in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Riyadh is a supporter of Sunnis in Lebanon and Iraq, for instance, but must seek to fight for their hearts and minds against Turkey. This is a global struggle that also involves Pakistan and Malaysia. And it also involves Israel.
That is why the Pompeo visit, fresh from meeting the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Saudi hosting of the G20, the Houthi missile fire and reports of Netanyahu’s trip are all part of the same story. Saudi Arabia appeared to be moving toward peace with Israel. That would open many doors. But there are questions in Riyadh about what will change next year under President-elect Joe Biden.
Biden has been critical of Saudi Arabia and also of Turkey. US commentators critique the Riyadh-led war against the Houthis in Yemen. Major think tanks, some of which are warmer toward Iran or Qatar, seek to tarnish Saudi Arabia’s image. But at the G20 meeting Riyadh and Ankara appeared to be getting along better. Many wonder what comes next. Closer Saudi-Israeli ties could be on the list. Riyadh has been flexible about flights and more openly supportive of the Abraham Accords. There is a role that Israel could play in the Saudi economy and cities like Neom if there were normalization. It could also mean a re-alignment of other issues from Iraq to Lebanon.
These are essential and important talks and Pompeo’s presence was key. Whether there will be a new groundbreaking announcement will be seen in the coming weeks.
Clearly the willingness to be more open about these types of meetings is part and parcel of a movement in a direction that has been paved by Abu Dhabi and its innovative approach to rapidly expanding ties. Flights begin on November 26 to Dubai, for instance. That is symbolic, as symbolic as the business jet that left Israel at five in the afternoon yesterday and appeared headed to Neom.
Trump helped to create a safe space for these kinds of meetings. But as he leaves office, the countries must work together closely and create their own future – that they will then present to the world.

Cooperate with China or World War 3: Kissinger
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 23/2020
[I]n a little over 14 minutes Kissinger managed to totally misinterpret Chinese history, support Beijing's most important foreign policy goal, and give deeply misguided advice to Joe Biden. Kissinger has evidently learned nothing from years of dangerous Chinese behavior, which is partly the result of his policy formulations.
China's troubled past, in short, is an excuse. What, after all, is it in history that justifies present-day Chinese aggression against India, Bhutan and Nepal, or its designs on Tajikistan, the Philippines and Malaysia? Moreover, what justification is there for the Communist Party's declaration of a "people's war" on the United States in May of last year?
Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe allegiance to Beijing.
There are, unfortunately, some points in history when dialogue makes matters worse because hardline leaders perceive others' desire to talk as a sign of weakness.
What is the best indication that Kissinger is wrong? Beijing at the moment is waging a concerted propaganda campaign to push his views as widely as possible. When your enemy wants you to do something, it is almost always not in your interest.
China is aggressive and militant at this moment because of the nature of its communist regime, which is quickly driving the country back to one-man rule and totalitarianism. Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe allegiance to Beijing. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
"I would think we need first of all a dialogue with the Chinese leadership in which we are defining what we're attempting to prevent and in which the two leaders agree that whatever other conflicts they have they will not resort to military conflict," Henry Kissinger told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on November 16 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. "Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I."
Of course no one wants war of any type with China, but in a little over 14 minutes Kissinger managed to totally misinterpret Chinese history, support Beijing's most important foreign policy goal, and give deeply misguided advice to Joe Biden. Kissinger has evidently learned nothing from years of dangerous Chinese behavior, which is partly the result of his policy formulations.
We start with history, because Kissinger was once an accomplished historian and his incorrect opinions on China today appear to flow from his unsupportable views of the Chinese past. He makes the case that Americans cannot understand Beijing's insecurity.
"Americans have had a history of relatively uninterrupted success," he noted. "The Chinese have had a very long history of repeated crises. America has had the good fortune of being free of immediate dangers. Chinese have usually been surrounded by countries that have had designs on their unity."
Even if his comments were true, no country now threatens China. China, in fact, has not faced any credible external threat to its unity for more than seven decades. The Communist Party dwells on history, such as the so-called "Century of Humiliation," the subject of ruler Xi Jinping's National Day speech last October, because that telling of history suits the needs of today's insecure regime.
China's troubled past, in short, is an excuse. What, after all, is it in history that justifies present-day Chinese aggression against India, Bhutan and Nepal, or its designs on Tajikistan, the Philippines and Malaysia?
Moreover, what justification is there for the Communist Party's declaration of a "people's war" on the United States in May of last year?
China is aggressive and militant at this moment because of the nature of its communist regime, which is quickly driving the country back to one-man rule and totalitarianism. Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe allegiance to Beijing.
There are, unfortunately, some points in history when dialogue makes matters worse because hardline leaders perceive others' desire to talk as a sign of weakness.
In any event, dialogue assumes that Chinese leaders can compromise, which at this point is a dubious proposition. For instance, Beijing last compromised a territorial claim in 2011 — with Tajikistan, when it took Tajik territory — but now is trying to reopen the settlement to grab even more. Since then, Beijing has added new claims — to the South China Sea — and has laid the groundwork for additional ones, especially over Japan's Ryukyu chain.
The absence of Chinese goodwill leaves America a last resort: deterrence.
Kissinger, often cited as a deterrence expert, is now not a fan of it. When Micklethwait asked him whether he favored the notion of Biden advisors that democracies should unite in a coalition, the 97-year-old "grand consigliere of American diplomacy" — the Financial Times's description — was noncommittal. "I think democracies should cooperate wherever their convictions allow it or dictate it," he replied. "I think a coalition aimed at a particular country is unwise, but a coalition to prevent dangers is necessary where the occasion requires it." In Kissinger-speak, that is a "no" to international cooperation against Beijing.
Given what could be happening inside Communist Party political circles, there may now be no way to avoid war with a militant Chinese state. Yet whether peace is possible or not, it should be clear to Kissinger that the approach he has supported, and which has been adopted by every American president since President Nixon went to China in 1972, has contributed to Chinese aggressiveness. Kissinger, by urging conciliation when Beijing has made clear it cannot be appeased, has helped produced today's grave situation.
Let us remember that Kissinger has always been intimidated by large communist states. He advocated détente in the early 1970s when he assumed there was no way to prevail over the Soviet Union. Reagan, after refusing to accept the USSR as a given, proved him dead wrong.
And Kissinger is dead wrong now. "Trump has a more confrontational method of negotiation than you can apply indefinitely," Kissinger told Micklethwait, appearing to speak to Joe Biden. That, James Fanell, the noted Swiss-based China strategist told Gatestone, is "an unambiguous declaration of Dr. Kissinger's defeatism."
As Fanell, a former director of Intelligence and Information Operations of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said, Kissinger believes the U.S. "cannot compete with the People's Republic of China."
America, however, is far stronger than China's regime and has allies, which China, other than North Korea, does not. Moreover, the U.S. is knitting together a formidable coalition — the Quad with Australia, India, and Japan — giving Washington the ability to continue to confront Beijing on every front. The Chinese state is no match for nations, both near and far, it seems determined to antagonize.
What is the best indication that Kissinger is wrong? Beijing at the moment is waging a concerted propaganda campaign to push his views as widely as possible. When your enemy wants you to do something, it is almost always not in your interest.
Kissinger essentially said the choice for America is cooperation or war, a narrative he has propagated in recent interviews. Yet repetition will not make his false dichotomy so. Countries can, between these two extremes, choose confrontation and deterrence. World War II in Europe, for example, started because Britain and France chose not to confront the Third Reich when doing so — in 1936 during the attempted remilitarization of the Rhineland — would have ended the German military threat.
Micklethwait started out the interview by asking about the Congress of Vienna, the subject of Kissinger's A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812-22. "Whenever peace—conceived as the avoidance of war—has been the primary objective of a power or a group of powers, the international system has been at the mercy of the most ruthless member of the international community," he wrote. "Whenever the international order has acknowledged that certain principles could not be compromised even for the sake of peace, stability based on an equilibrium of forces was at least conceivable."Kissinger ducked the question and, for some reason, is now suggesting the United States put itself at the mercy of the world's most ruthless regime.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow, and member of its Advisory Board. Follow him on Twitter and Parler @GordonGChang.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

How Islam’s Own Blasphemy Laws Could Outlaw Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/November 23, 2020
Muslims everywhere—from the heads of the most prestigious institutions, such as Egypt’s Al Azhar, to the common rank and file—are calling for the international equivalent of their own blasphemy laws, which ban any critical or offensive talk against Islam and its prophet Muhammad, often on pain of death.
Although the recent beheading of a French teacher who showed a Charlie Hebdo cartoon of the prophet of Islam in the context of free speech occasioned this latest demand, in fact, Muslim calls to criminalize free speech against Islam regularly flare out whenever Muslims kill Westerners in the context of exercising their rights to free expression.
For example, in 2015, after Muslim gunmen killed 12 people at Charlie Hebdo offices for publishing the same satirical caricatures of Muslim prophet Muhammad, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the “collective voice of the Muslim world” and second largest inter-governmental organization after the United Nations, called—and is again predictably calling—for the United Nations to criminalize “blasphemy” against Islam, or what it more ecumenically calls, the “defamation of religions.”
Yet the OIC, Al Azhar, and countless other Muslim groups and individuals seem to miss the grand irony: if international laws would ban free speech, cartoons, books, and films on the basis that they defame Islam, they would also, by logical extension, have to ban the entire religion of Islam itself—the only religion whose core texts actively and unequivocally defame other religions, including by name.
To understand this, consider what “defamation” means. Typical dictionary-definitions include “to blacken another’s reputation” and “false or unjustified injury of the good reputation of another, as by slander or libel.” In Muslim usage, defamation simply means anything that insults or offends Islamic sensibilities.
However, to gain traction among the international community, the OIC and others cynically maintain that such laws should protect all religions from defamation, not just Islam (even as Muslim governments regularly ban churches, destroy crucifixes, and burn Bibles). Disingenuous or not, such wording suggests that any expression that “slanders” the religious sentiments of others should be banned.
What, then, do we do with Islam’s core religious texts—beginning with the Koran itself, which slanders, denigrates and blackens the reputation of other religions? Consider Christianity alone: Koran 5:73 declares that “Infidels are they who say God is one of three,” a reference to the Christian Trinity; Koran 5:72 says “Infidels are they who say God is the Christ, [Jesus] son of Mary”; and Koran 9:30 complains that “the Christians say the Christ is the son of God … may God’s curse be upon them!”
Considering that the word “infidel” (kafir) is not only Islam’s most derogatory term, but sharia requires Muslims to subjugate or kill infidels, what if a Christian book or Western cartoon appeared declaring that “Infidels are they who say Muhammad is the prophet of God—may God’s curse be upon them”? If Muslims would consider that a great defamation against Islam—and they would, with the attendant rioting, murders, etc.—then by the same standard it must be admitted that the Koran defames Christians and Christianity.
Similarly, consider how the Christian crucifix, venerated among millions, is depicted—is defamed—in Islam: according to canonical hadiths, when he returns, Jesus (“Prophet Isa”) will destroy all the crosses; as for Muhammad, who never allowed the cross in his presence, he once ordered someone wearing a cross to “throw away this piece of idol from yourself.” Unsurprisingly, the cross is banned and often destroyed whenever visible in many Muslim countries.
What if Christian books or Western movies declared that the sacred things of Islam—say the Black Stone in Mecca’s Ka’ba, which Muslims venerate and adore while circumambulating—are “idolatry” and that Muhammad himself will return and destroy them? If Muslims would consider that defamation against Islam—and they would, with all the attendant rioting, murders, etc.—then by the same standard it must be admitted that Islamic teaching defames the Christian Cross.
Here is a particularly odious form of defamation against Christian sentiment, especially to the millions of Catholic and Orthodox Christians. According to Islam’s most authoritative Koranic exegetes, including the revered Ibn Kathir, Muhammad is in paradise married to and copulating with the Virgin Mary.
What if a Christian book or Western movie portrayed, say, Muhammad’s “favorite” wife, Aisha—the “Mother of Believers”—as being married to and having sex with a false prophet in heaven? If Muslims would consider that a great defamation against Islam—and they would, with all the attendant rioting, murders, etc.—then by the same standard it must be admitted that Islam’s most authoritative Koranic exegetes defame the Virgin Mary.
Nor is such defamation of Christianity limited to Islam’s core scriptures; modern day Muslim scholars and sheikhs agree that it is permissible to defame and mock Christianity. “Islam Web,” which is owned by the government of Qatar, even issued a fatwa that legitimizes insulting Christianity.
The grandest irony of all is that the “defamation” that Muslims complain about—and that prompts great violence and bloodshed around the world—revolves around things like cartoons and movies, which are made by individuals who represent only themselves; on the other hand, Islam itself, through its holiest and most authoritative texts, denigrates and condemns—in a word, defames—all other religions, not to mention calls for violence against them (e.g., Koran 9:29).
It is this issue, Islam’s perceived “divine” right to defame and destroy, that the international community should be addressing—not free speech and expression in the guise of silly cartoons.

The future of Iran’s ties with Al-Qaeda under new US president
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/November 23/ 2020
The announcement of the killing of Al-Qaeda’s deputy commander in Tehran has again raised questions about the Iranian regime’s relationship with the terrorist organization and has provided a fresh reminder of the need to analyze the regime’s strategy based on using the organization as an asset and providing safe havens for its leaders. On Nov. 14, 2020, American media outlets cited reports from US officials confirming that a covert joint operation by US and Israeli intelligence services had resulted in the assassination of Al-Qaeda commander Abu Mohammed Al-Masri in the heart of Tehran on Aug. 7, 2020. Al-Masri was involved in the attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The Iranian Foreign Ministry predictably dismissed the reports of Al-Masri’s killing on Iranian soil, describing them as “fake news.”
In the face of significant evidence from various sources repeatedly confirming the longstanding relationship between Iran and Al-Qaeda, the regime in Tehran insists on sticking unyieldingly to its policy of denial. It cites sectarian differences and conflicting ideological views as supposedly compelling evidence of the lack of any connection between Tehran and Al-Qaeda, and it reiterates the animosity between the two sides. However, a closer look at both the trajectory of relations between the two sides and their ideological similarities will quickly reveal the deep-rooted ties between them and show the Iranian regime’s success in forging an alliance with Al-Qaeda and employing its operatives to meet Iranian objectives.
In theory, there are two different schools of thought within Al-Qaeda in relation to dealing with Shiites in general and with Iran in particular. The first school of thought, spearheaded by Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Abu Mohammed Al-Maqdisi, believes that targeting Iranians and Shiites in general is not a priority for the organization because they are excused for their ignorance of the “true” understanding of Islam, which Al-Qaeda claims to monopolize. Also, this school is somewhat more lenient and flexible in its attitude toward Shiites when compared to the second school of thought, which will be discussed in the following lines. According to this first school of thought, precedence should be given to confronting the more evident enemy: The West, the US and those aligned with them.
The second school of thought within Al-Qaeda was spearheaded by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, a student of Al-Maqdisi and the assassinated leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, who believed in the necessity of expanding the organization’s terrorist operations against Shiites with the aim of sparking a Sunni-Shiite civil war in Iraq. On the ground, meanwhile, Iran’s regime has provided a safe haven for Al-Qaeda operatives who had been trapped in Afghanistan following the US invasion of Kabul in 2001. Many members of Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups found they had no choice but to escape to Iran, particularly in light of the Iranian regime sharing the organization’s animosity toward the US and feeling they had no hope of fleeing to Pakistan given the strong CIA presence there.
By having these Al-Qaeda members and affiliates on its soil, Iran found additional assets for extending its terrorist capabilities in the region and beyond. These assets had the potential to carry out whatever terrorist operations the Iranian regime wished to mount or potentially serve as a useful bargaining chip with the US, to be swapped — if necessary — to achieve its interests against the US.
Meanwhile, Al-Zarqawi directed his extremist vision toward the Shiites in Iraq in order to cause the greatest possible disruption for the remaining US troops in Iraq in order to drive them out of the country, enabling Iran to take control of Iraq. It is worth noting that Al-Zarqawi had first fled to Iran following the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan before moving to Iraq.
Although 20 years have passed since the confrontation between the US and Al-Qaeda reached its peak, Iran still maintains the organization as an asset and bargaining chip, harboring senior Al-Qaeda commanders such as Saif Al-Adel, a high-level member of the organization’s shoura council, on its soil. Experts believe that Al-Adel has tremendous field experience, with most observers agreeing that he is still in Iran according to a UN report released in 2018. Other prominent Al-Qaeda associates still in Iran include the family of the terrorist organization’s deceased founder, Osama bin Laden.
With the “alliance and employment” relationship between Al-Qaeda and Iran’s regime proven and well-documented, it seems probable that the future of the Washington-Tehran relationship under the incoming US President Joe Biden will put the Iranian regime under significant US pressure no less than the extreme pressure imposed on the regime by President Donald Trump.
Despite the expected gradual settlement of the crisis surrounding the nuclear deal during Biden’s time in office, the problems resulting from all the other Iranian excesses will emerge more than ever before. These excesses include Iran’s expansionism across the Middle East, the regime’s support for armed militias and terrorist groups, its human rights abuses and the issue of detainees with dual Iranian-European citizenship in Iranian prisons. Each of these excesses and aggressions by Iran’s regime is sufficient to provoke sanctions against Tehran and they should be as severe as those imposed on it due to its nuclear activities. The foregoing is based on the assumption that US sanctions will be lifted all in one go after Biden comes to power, which we believe to be rather unrealistic.
For its part, Iran, for the first time, announced the upcoming release of several detainees from its prisons shortly after the announcement of Biden’s victory in the US presidential election. After Trump filed lawsuits challenging the validity of the voting process in a few states, Iran slowed down in taking the remaining steps to release the detainees. This was in addition to the growing debate within the Iranian ruling elite about the possible future scenarios in relation to the US position on the nuclear deal under Biden and the best way to deal with them. The policy of ‘alliance and employment’ that Iran has pursued with Al-Qaeda may come to an end.
While dragging its heels on releasing some detainees, Iran was expected to release some of the imprisoned dual nationals. A significant number of dual nationals have been arrested while visiting their relatives in Iran. The regime levels various implausible allegations at detained dual nationals, such as accusing them of carrying out espionage missions for Western countries, and effectively uses them as bargaining chips during its negotiations with the West. One of the best known among these cases is that of Iranian-British dual citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, detained in Tehran since April 2016.
Based on all the mentioned points, even if the assassination of Al-Qaeda leaders in Iran carried out by the US and Israel results in the close relationship between Tehran and Al-Qaeda coming to the fore again, this will serve Iran indirectly, relieving the regime of the burden of harboring Al-Qaeda commanders, and significantly reducing the likelihood of future escalation between Iran and the Biden administration. This is especially so when we put the killing of Al-Masri in Iran on Nov. 14, 2020, side by side with the success of French forces in killing Bah Ag Moussa, an Al-Qaeda military leader in the organization’s North African wing on Nov. 13, 2020, and with Afghanistan’s announcement of the killing of one of Al-Qaeda’s senior commanders on its soil, Mohammad Hanif Rezai, on Nov. 12, 2020.
This means there are a number of files related to Al-Qaeda and its collaboration with certain governments, first and foremost Iran, that are about to be closed, meaning the policy of “alliance and employment” that Iran has pursued with Al-Qaeda may come to an end. In the meantime, the current US administration is hastening its withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, making them conducive arenas for the spread of terror activities of Iranian militias operating on the ground in both countries.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Can Biden help end the tragedy of Syria?
Chris Doyle/Arab News/November 23/ 2020
Former US President Barack Obama admitted in an interview this month that he is “still tormented by the tragedy in Syria.” He certainly should be. In the international arena, no conflict in his two terms saw so much destruction and loss of life, and arguably so little positive impact from the US. If it haunts him, one wonders what it does to President-elect Joe Biden, who as vice president was also a key pillar in shaping the Obama administration’s Syria policy.
The Obama-era policies in terms of Syria were largely a costly exercise in wishful thinking. Without deploying serious military force in concert with allies, why did he start the regime-change bandwagon? It fed the fantasies that the US would lead the charge to kick out the Assad regime, which from the outset Obama had no intention of doing.
In Obama’s recently published memoirs, he is clear about the situation in 2011 regarding Syria: “Our options were painfully limited.” If so, why — in tandem with British, French and German leaders — did Obama call for Bashar Assad to step aside when he had no intention to back that up? Why did Obama allow red lines to be drawn that he had no intention of policing, as was painfully made clear after his decision not to respond to the Assad regime’s chemical weapons attacks in 2013? Why indeed was the red line only defined in terms of chemical weapons when conventional weapons had killed hundreds of thousands? All of this matters because so many of Biden’s likely team were a core part of the Obama administration. Will they still be married to notions of regime change? This might be unlikely. Tony Blinken, a key Biden ally and likely secretary of state, wrote: “The last administration has to acknowledge that we failed, not for want of trying, but we failed. We failed to prevent a horrific loss of life. We failed to prevent massive displacement of people internally in Syria and, of course, externally as refugees. And it’s something that I will take with me for the rest of my days.”
Philip H. Gordon, former White House coordinator for the Middle East, was similarly critical: “What we ended up doing was support the opposition enough to escalate and perpetuate a tragic horrible devastating civil conflict, with huge humanitarian repercussions, refugee flows, spillover effects in the neighbors, exacerbation of terrorism, but not enough to actually bring about the change of regime.”
It begs the question as to how much engagement a Biden administration will have with the remnants of the Syrian political opposition, who appear more divided and impotent than at any point in the last decade.
When Blinken was asked about normalization with the Assad regime, he said: “It is virtually impossible for me to imagine that.” This did not rule it out, but it is safe to assume it is not a likely scenario in the next four years.
A more pertinent question is whether Biden will maintain or even intensify sanctions on Syria. They will not be lifted, but perhaps the aims could be altered, including goals such as producing certain key reforms or safe voluntary return of refugees.
Biden will have to engage in diplomacy, to reach out to allies to make up for President Donald Trump’s disinterest in Syria. Given the power arrangements on the ground, Biden’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin will be key. Can Biden reengage with the UN political process and find a means of working with his Russian counterpart? Putin will want to know what will be in it for him.
But then there is Turkey. In one unguarded comment at a talk at Harvard’s Kennedy School in 2014, Biden told the audience of students: “Our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria.” This led Turkish President Recep Tayyep Erdogan to demand an apology, which after two days Biden did, but not before Erdogan had described their relationship as “history.”
Biden will have to handle Erdogan delicately to resolve many areas of acute tension, not least over the S-400 missile system that Turkey bought from Russia. Biden also angers Erdogan because he insists that the US should not ditch its Kurdish allies in Syria, an accusation he throws at Trump.
Turkey sees these American allies as terrorists. Biden’s support of these Kurdish groups is one reason why he will not pull forces from Syria, if Trump has left any behind. Sen. Chris Coons, another close Biden ally, was clear that he would “support a continued presence by United States troops on the ground in Syria and Afghanistan to retain the capacity, to prevent groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS (Daesh) to establish physical strongholds and to launch, again, terrorist attacks against our nations.”
Biden made similar comments himself: “These ‘forever wars’ have to end. I support drawing down the troops. But here’s the problem, we still have to worry about terrorism and (Daesh).”
Biden will want to see less of an Iranian footprint in Syria, and almost certainly will not step in to halt Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in the country.
Another reason is oil. Key advisers to Trump persuaded him to return a US presence in part because of Syrian oil. In fact there is not much oil present, and it is not clear that the Biden team considers the oil as something the US will be holding on to, unlike Trump. Blinken sees the oil as “a point of leverage because the Syrian government would love to have dominion over those resources. We should not give that up for free.”
Overall, Biden will have other priorities, and as with Trump, the focus in the Middle East will be on Iran, albeit with the aim of securing a deal. The Assad regime will hope this leads to some sanctions relief for Syria, something the Syrian people certainly need in this economic crisis even if the regime’s record does not merit it. Biden will want to see less of an Iranian footprint in Syria, and almost certainly will not step in to halt Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in the country.
The optimistic if unlikely scenario is that American diplomatic muscle will be directed to ensuring significant progress in the UN-led political process in Geneva, including with the constitutional committee. This may be the only way that Biden can find a small degree of success, a tiny way of helping those people out of this never-ending tragedy that still torments his former boss.
**Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

Feeling alienated, Iraqi Christians tempted to emigrate
The Arab Weekly/November 23/2020
BAGHDAD - The bells of St. Joseph’s Chaldean Cathedral echo across Baghdad, signalling the start of Mass for the dwindling congregation that has stayed in the scarred Iraqi capital against all odds.
“This is a safe space,” says Mariam, a 17-year-old Chaldean Catholic among the few dozen attending the service. Elderly women pray solemnly, their hair covered in delicate black veils. Red ropes block off every other row to enforce social distancing in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, but there aren’t enough worshippers to fill the church in any case.
A few hundred thousand Christians are left in Iraq, where a US-led invasion in 2003 paved the way for bloody sectarian warfare that devastated the country’s historic and diverse Christian communities. Like Mariam, the 53-year-old deacon of St. Joseph’s Cathedral preferred to identify himself only by his first name, Nael. “My father, mother and siblings emigrated after 2003. I’m the only one left in Iraq, and I stayed because I was hoping the situation would get better,” he said.
But after 35 years serving at St. Joseph’s and watching the parish shrink year by year, Nael has little hope. “It used to be full even on regular weekdays,” he recalled. “But there’s been a drop in numbers and ongoing emigration in the last three or four years, especially from this parish,” he lamented.
Dwindling numbers
As hardliners fought each other starting in 2006, Iraq’s ancient Christian communities — Assyrian, Armenian, Chaldean, Protestant and more — were directly targeted. One of the most horrific attacks was in 2010, when gunmen took hostage and eventually killed dozens of Christians at the Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad. Then in 2014, the “Islamic State” (ISIS) extremist group swept across Nineveh province, the heartland of Iraq’s minorities. Christians — but also the esoteric Yazidis, Shia Turkmen and other communities — streamed out of their homes as the jihadists closed in, or were forced to convert under their rule.
There are no reliable statistics on the number of Christians who fled Iraq during these consecutive waves of bloodshed. According to William Warda, co-founder of the Hammurabi Human Rights Organisation, Christians left in Iraq number up to 400,000, down from 1.5 million in 2003. Their absence is stark.
Churches across Baghdad have shuttered, including the Holy Trinity Church in the Baladiyat district, closed to regular services for four years.
At the Armenian Catholic Church of the Sacred Heart of Jesus, a terracotta structure in the Karrada area, a rusted lock has barred entry since 2007.
The churches that have remained open are surrounded by a labyrinth of concrete blast walls and security forces. The southern Baghdad district of Dora was once home to a thriving community of 150,000 Christians, including doctors, businessmen and cafe owners, Warda said.
Now, “there are only 1,000 left,” he told AFP.
– Discrimination –
Iraq declared ISIS defeated three years ago, but “threats, kidnappings, extortion and deaths still persist,” said Yonadam Kanna, a leading Christian politician. While Iraq’s constitution ostensibly affords the same level of protection to all communities, Chaldean Patriarch Louis Sako said de facto prejudice was locking Christians out of society. “There’s no direct pressure on Christians today, but there’s day-to-day discrimination. If you’re Christian, there’s no place for you in state institutions,” the head of the Chaldean Catholic Church said. “It’s caused by corruption and it leads to emigration.”
That has eroded the feeling of belonging, some told AFP.
“There’s a sense among Christians that the country is becoming more conservative, and that Christians — or even secular Muslims — can no longer live in it,” Warda said. Ninos, a beautician looking to emigrate, agreed.
“Sometimes, I can see myself here. But most of the time, I find I have no home in Iraq,” the 25-year-old said. “The situation isn’t compatible with my work, the way I think or how I aspire to develop myself.”For others, it is a matter of livelihoods.
Iraq has been hit hard by the twin shocks of an oil price collapse and the novel coronavirus pandemic, leading to the worst fiscal crisis the country has seen in decades. That has pushed Mariam to consider greener pastures outside her beloved homeland. “Honestly, everybody wants to stay in their own country,” she said. “I dream of travelling, but I dream at the same time that my country could provide me everything that others have, so I could stay here.”