LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 22/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Because you have kept my word
of patient endurance, I will keep you from the hour of trial that is coming on
the whole world
Book of Revelation 03/07-13/:”‘To the angel of the church in Philadelphia write:
These are the words of the holy one, the true one, who has the key of David, who
opens and no one will shut,who shuts and no one opens: ‘I know your works. Look,
I have set before you an open door, which no one is able to shut. I know that
you have but little power, and yet you have kept my word and have not denied my
name. I will make those of the synagogue of Satan who say that they are Jews and
are not, but are lying I will make them come and bow down before your feet, and
they will learn that I have loved you. Because you have kept my word of patient
endurance, I will keep you from the hour of trial that is coming on the whole
world to test the inhabitants of the earth. I am coming soon; hold fast to what
you have, so that no one may seize your crown. If you conquer, I will make you a
pillar in the temple of my God; you will never go out of it. I will write on you
the name of my God, and the name of the city of my God, the new Jerusalem that
comes down from my God out of heaven, and my own new name. Let anyone who has an
ear listen to what the Spirit is saying to the churches..’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on November 21-22/2019
Lebanese president calls corruption biggest danger to the country
Aoun Blames Govt. Delay on Lebanese 'Contradictions', Invites Protesters to
Dialogue
Protesters Block Roads across Lebanon after President Speech
Trump Says U.S. Ready to Work with New Govt., Lebanon's Dollar Bonds Surge
U.N. Coordinator for Lebanon Denies Meddling in Govt. Formation
French Embassy Urges Formation of 'Active and Credible' Govt.
Lebanon: Fears of Open-ended Political Crisis Amid Communications Interruption
Lebanon’s Speaker Invites MPs to Meet on Returning Stolen Funds
Berri Calls Parliamentary Session, Presidency Cancels Independence Reception
Berri Urges Lebanese to Show Unity, Protect Independence
Baabda Palace cancels Independence Day reception due to current situation
Tarraf after meeting with Rahi pins hope efforts will yield good results in
Lebanon
Statement of the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
UNIFIL Commander to NNA: Israeli violations of Lebanon's sovereignty and 1701
escalate tension
Kanaan from Bkerki: Financial situation is dangerous yet rescuing it still
possible
Lebanese Army Rejects Bloodshed in Dealing with Protesters
Protesters Storm Central Bank Headquarters to Recite Statement
Hezbollah, Amal Criticize Lebanese Army Behavior
Report: France Could Launch an Initiative for Lebanon
Argentina considering 'softening' the country's position on Hezbollah
Lebanese Pupils Protest against 'Outdated' Curriculum
Students lead protests in Lebanon as President Aoun set to speak
Jarrah Hits Back at Financial Prosecutor, Accuses Him of Corruption
Army Seizes Explosives in Jabal Mohsen
Court Session of ex-Israeli Collaborator Amer Fakhoury Postponed
Soldier who Shot Abu Fakhr Dead Charged with Murder
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
November 21-22/2019
Netanyahu Charged With Bribery, Fraud and Breach of Trust, Capping a Dramatic
Political Year
Netanyahu: I will continue to lead the country in face of an attempted coup by
the law enforcement arm
Defiant Netanyahu Rejects Graft Indictment, Vows to Stay
US statement on Israeli settlements is ‘Deal of the Century’ in action: Experts
Israel President Asks Parliament to Find PM
Iran’s fuel price crisis shows sanctions are crippling its economy
Anti-government protesters block Iraqi ports, threaten oil exports
Greek Minister: Turkey Needs to End 'Blackmail' for Migrant Aid
Egypt: ISIS Claims Attack in Sinai That Killed Officer
Arab League’s Zaki: Turkish, Iranian Meddling Crossed Red Lines
Iraqi Integrity Commission Issues Arrest Warrants Against Several Officials
US has world’s highest rate of children in detention: UN study
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on November 21-22/2019
President Aoun's address on eve of Lebanon's
76th Independence Day/NNA/November 21/2019
Argentina considering 'softening' the country's position on Hezbollah/Jerusalem
Post/November 21/2019
A most peaceful revolution/Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 21/2019
Shortages of food and medical supplies loom over Lebanon protests/Matthew Amlôt
and Lauren Holtmeier/Al Arabiya English/November 21/2019
Gebran Bassil: Lebanon’s controversial power broker and potential next
president/Tommy Hilton/Al Arabiya English/November 21/2019
With Uprisings Pervasive Today, Where is the Arab World Heading in the Coming
Decade/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 21/2019
Tripoli protesters mull the return of PM Saad Hariri/Jacob Boswall/Al Arabiya
English/November 21/2019
*America's Early Apologists for Islamism/Daniel Pipes/Washington Times/November
21/2019
Iran: Hard Times for Ayatollahs/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November
21/2019
Thanks to Trump, the Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute/November 21/2019
The Fall of The Alliance of Evil Against Saudi Arabia/Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq
Al-Awsat/November 21/2019
The Other Genocide of Christians: On Turks, Kurds, and Assyrians/Raymond
Ibrahim/November 21/2019
Iran’s digital blackout was carefully prepared: Experts/Lenah Hassaballah/Al
Arabiya/November 21/2019
Khamenei’s Domestic and Foreign Response Options to the Protests/Patrick
Clawson/The Washington Institute/November 21/2019
West must step in to restore Iranians’ internet access/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/November 21/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on November 21-22/2019
President Aoun's address on eve of Lebanon's 76th Independence Day
NNA/November 21/2019
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, said in his address on the eve
of Lebanon's 76th Independence Day:
"My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen,
As I address you on the eve of Lebanon's 76th Independence Day, I am well aware
that this is no time for speeches, literature and celebrations.
It's time for action, serious and relentless action, because we are in a race
against time, for challenges are tremendous and dangerous, and we have already
lost a lot of time.
The new government that Lebanon awaits and around which hopes are placed was
supposed to see the light and embark on its work, but the contradictions that
govern the Lebanese politics imposed carefulness in view of avoiding dangers and
coming up with a government that would live up to your ambitions and aspirations
as much as possible, and would be highly efficient, productive and orderly,
because the challenges ahead are huge and the deadlines imminent.
My fellow Lebanese,
Seventy-six years have gone by since Lebanon became an independent nation.
Throughout these years, the country went through rough periods during which its
independence was jeopardized; and with every passing crisis, we become all the
more aware that it is harder to preserve independence that to earn it.
Indeed, independence means a free and independent national decision, away from
any form of custody, whether explicit or masked, and this is what we hold on to,
today and every day, with all our resolve and strength, and at all costs.
The deals and settlements that are being devised for our region, and the
attempts to impose them, not only threaten the independence of the concerned
States, but also their being and very existence.
Therefore, affirming Lebanon's independence neither implies hostility towards
any State nor enmity towards anyone. On the contrary, we seek sincere friendship
and positive approach to those who befriend us, but on the basis of our free
decision, a peer-to-peer relationship, the acceptance of suggestions that suit
our nation and the rejection of those that harm it; and if "politics is the art
of the possible", it is also the rejection of the unacceptable.
International settlements do not pose the sole threat on the stability of the
State; on the Lebanese internal arena, there is a looming danger that threatens
our society, institutions and economy: corruption.
Fighting corruption has become a tagline, used every time there is a need for
it, even by those who are steeped in corruption. Yet, upon the adoption of the
slightest execution procedures, confessional and sectarian red lights begin to
surface.
The battle here is tough, rather one of the toughest. I therefore turned to you,
fellow Lebanese, asking for help, because no one else can make all lines
available, and no one else can exert pressure for the implementation of existing
laws and adoption of the needed legislation to recover the looted funds and
pursue the corrupt.
Here I reiterate my call to the demonstrators to learn first-hand their
effective demands and the means to enforce them, because dialogue is the sole
correct path to the resolution of crises.
The popular movements that have taken place lately have broken some established
taboos, toppled the untouchables to a certain extent, prompted the judiciary to
act, and stimulated the legislative branch to give priority to a set of
anti-corruption bills.
It is healthy and useful to shed the light on corruption hotbeds through the
media and on the streets, and so is the submission of available incriminating
information and documents to the judiciary.
Nevertheless, what undermines the most the anti-corruption track is when the
media, the streets and the political debate become the plaintiff, the general
prosecutor, the judge and the jailer at the same time; because sending out
random accusations, issuing final judgments and generalizing may criminalize an
innocent, but it certainly allows the real perpetrators to remain anonymous, go
unpunished and pursue their corrupted activity.
You have given momentum to the judiciary, so let it do its job...
And this is where lies your role, Judges;
What is required of you today is to commit to your oath, to carry out your duty
"faithfully" and to be "honorable honest judges"; because no matter where it
begins, the fight against corruption will end well in your hands, and its
victory depends on your courage and integrity.
Since 2017, I have successively deferred to justice eighteen files related to
cases of corruption and bribery in State administrations. To date, no verdict
has been issued in any of them. If late justice is no justice, then the late
settlement of corruption cases is an inadvertent encouragement on corruption.
Today, we rely on the recent judicial appointments to activate the role of the
judiciary and reinforce its autonomy, to reach an independent, brave and fair
judicial branch which would be the spearhead of the battle against corruption. I
repeat that I will be a robust barrier and a ceiling of steel to protect the
judiciary. In other terms, I will ban any interference therein based on my oath
to preserve the Constitution and the laws.
My fellow Lebanese,
We are on the threshold of the second Centenary of Greater Lebanon, and we find
ourselves hostages of an acute economic crisis resulting from wrong economic
policies and from corruption and waste in the administration throughout decades.
Let the coming year be a year of effective economic independence, through the
conversion of the rentier economic pattern into a productive economy, by
supporting agriculture and industry, adopting stimulating policies to make our
production competitive on foreign markets, and dedicating all the attention to
technology and knowledge economy, a sector in which Lebanon can be a serious
competitor.
Yes, let us make it a year of effective economic independence by starting to
drill the first off-shore oil well, and by adopting the law on the sovereign
fund which will manage oil revenues, provided that it follows the highest global
transparency standards.
Let us make it a year of geographical independence by holding on to every meter
of water in our economic zone which is rich with natural resources, exactly as
we hold on to every inch of our land, and as we seek to liberate the territories
that are still under Israeli occupation.
Let us make it a year of environmental independence through the reforestation of
mountains, especially those that were lately affected by fires...
Let us make it a year of effective social independence as well, starting with
the adoption of the comprehensive protection law, also known as old-age
security.
As for the full-fledged independence, we can only achieve it if we liberate
ourselves from confessional and sectarian disputes, and begin with the necessary
steps to establish the Civil State.
It's time for action and the government-to-be will find me ready to accompany
its work and willing to push forward for the fulfillment of the achievements.
Fellow soldiers,
Independence Day cannot pass by without addressing you because you were and you
remain the shield of the country, the protectors of its independence and the
bulwark of its unity.
The toughest missions that a soldier may face are domestic issues, as in your
case, whereas you have to protect the freedom of the citizens who wish to
express their opinion through demonstrations and sit-ins, and to protect as well
the freedom of movement of the citizens who wish to go to work or home. Your
success in this critical mission is the gauge of the citizens' confidence in
you, and confidence is precious and irreparable.
Dear Lebanese youth in particular,
The uncontrollability of the rhetoric on the street is one of the biggest
dangers that threaten the nation and the society, so do not forget that in the
aftermath of this crisis, you will go back to your home, neighborhood, school,
university, work...You will go back to living together, so do not elaborate on
the rhetoric of hatred and incitement because destruction is easy but
construction is hard. Do not destroy the foundations of our society which rests
upon the respect of the other and on the freedoms of belief, opinion and
expression.
Your ancestors suffered greatly to preserve their free existence and independent
being, and your parents went through all sorts of suffering in a devastating
internal war that destroyed most of their dreams and hijacked the best years of
their life.
Today, the legacy is in your hands and it is up to you to learn the relevant
lesson.
Long live Lebanon!"
Lebanese president calls corruption biggest danger to the
country
The National/November 21/2019
Politicians have yet to form new government as protests continue and Lebanon
sinks deeper into financial crisis
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Thursday that corruption was the biggest
threat to the country. “Inside Lebanon, there is a grave danger to our society,
institutions and economy. It is corruption,” Mr Aoun said in a 13-minute
televised speech on the eve of Lebanon’s 76th Independence Day. Mr Aoun has
tried to appease the Lebanese people by vowing to fight corruption in his four
media appearances since mass protests started on October 17, sparked by the
government raising taxes to fix the faltering economy. Political parties have
yet to form a new government since prime minister Saad Hariri resigned on
October 29 and the country is sinking deeper into a financial crisis that
protesters blame on its ruling elite. Mr Aoun said he recognised that fighting
corruption had become a convenient “consumerist slogan” often repeated by
politicians, but that its implementation consistently failed because of
“sectarian red lines”.
“That is why I turn to you, oh Lebanese people, asking for your help," he said.
"No one else but you can press for implementing existing laws and the necessary
legislation to recover looted funds and prosecute corrupt people."Protests have
pressured the Lebanese judiciary, which has often been accused of failing to act
against corruption, to file charges against high-profile officials and
politicians, including former ministers, in the past weeks.
Mr Aoun criticised judges for failing to act on more than 18 corruption files
that had been brought to their attention since 2017. He praised protesters for
“breaking taboos” and “pushing the judiciary to take action”, but also chastised
them for “criminalising innocents” and “hate speech”.
Protesters frequently insulted politicians during the first weeks of
demonstrations, particularly Mr Aoun’s son-in-law and caretaker foreign minister
Gebran Bassil, who also leads the Free Patriotic Movement, the party founded by
the president. As a solution to the economic crisis, Mr Aoun promised that by
next year, oil and gas would be drilled off the coast of Lebanon. Experts have
warned that despite politicians’ promises, income from potential offshore oil
and gasfields could take years to materialise. Responding to one of the key
demands of protesters, Mr Aoun promised to “liberate” Lebanon from “sectarianism
and to start the necessary steps towards a civic state”. The Taif agreement that
ended Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in 1990 outlined a transition to a
non-sectarian state, but this was never implemented. Mr Aoun’s early media
appearances were poorly received. Violence flared after an hour-long interview
on November 12 in which he said that those unhappy with Lebanese politicians
could emigrate.
Aoun Blames Govt. Delay on Lebanese
'Contradictions', Invites Protesters to Dialogue
Naharnet/November 21/2019
President Michel Aoun on Thursday blamed the delay in forming a new government
on Lebanon’s “contradictions,” as he re-invited protesters to dialogue with him.
“The time is not for speeches but rather for hard work… The challenges are
dangerous and we've wasted a lot of time,” Aoun said in an address to the nation
on the eve of Lebanon’s Independence Day. “The government should have been
formed by now and started its work, but the contradictions that govern Lebanese
politics have necessitated carefulness in order to avoid a more dangerous
situation,” the president added. Renewing his invitation to protesters to send
representatives to the presidential palace for talks, Aoun said he wants to
“closely explore their actual demands and means to implement them,” stressing
that “dialogue is the only correct way to resolve crises.”As for the latest
anti-corruption drive in the country, the president said “the recent popular
protests have broken some taboos and relatively some protections, prompting the
judiciary to act and encouraging the legislative authority to give priority to a
number of anti-corruption draft laws.”“I will be a firm bulwark that protects
the judiciary and by that I mean that I will prevent any interference in it,” he
pledged. Addressing the armed forces, he added: “You must protect the freedom of
citizens who want to express their opinion through demonstrations and you also
have to protect the freedom of movement of citizens who want to go to their work
or home.”Protesters have repeatedly rejected calls for talks with the president,
noting that their demands are well-known. Lebanon's unprecedented protest
movement, which broke out on October 17, has been calling for a complete
overhaul of a political elite accused of inefficiency and corruption. After the
government stepped down on October 29, protesters demanded a fresh cabinet
composed of experts not affiliated with any of the traditional political
parties. But Aoun in a recent interview argued that a government made up solely
of independent technocrats would not represent the people or be able to set
policies. "Where should I look for them? On the moon?" he said, arguing true
independents were scarce in a country where most people follow a specific
political party.
Protesters Block Roads across Lebanon after President
Speech
Naharnet/November 21/2019
Protesters blocked several key roads across Lebanon on Thursday evening shortly
after a televised address by President Michel Aoun. The protesters first blocked
the vital Ring highway in central Beirut. Road-blocking action later spread to
the highway that links Beirut to the South with protesters blocking it in the
Naameh area. Roads were also blocked in Tripoli’s al-Qobbeh, central Bekaa and
al-Beddawi. The army meanwhile prevented protesters from blocking the road near
the presidential palace in Baabda. In his speech, Aoun blamed the delay in
forming a new government on Lebanon’s “contradictions,” as he re-invited
protesters to dialogue with him, noting that he wants to “closely explore their
actual demands and means to implement them.” Addressing the armed forces, he
added: “You must protect the freedom of citizens who want to express their
opinion through demonstrations and you also have to protect the freedom of
movement of citizens who want to go to their work or home.”Protesters have
repeatedly rejected calls for talks with the president, noting that their
demands are well-known. Lebanon's unprecedented protest movement, which broke
out on October 17, has been calling for a complete overhaul of a political elite
accused of inefficiency and corruption. After the government stepped down on
October 29, protesters demanded a fresh cabinet composed of experts not
affiliated with any of the traditional political parties. But Aoun in a recent
interview argued that a government made up solely of independent technocrats
would not represent the people or be able to set policies. "Where should I look
for them? On the moon?" he said, arguing true independents were scarce in a
country where most people follow a specific political party.
Trump Says U.S. Ready to Work with New Govt., Lebanon's
Dollar Bonds Surge
Naharnet/November 21/2019
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed Washington’s readiness to cooperate
with a new Lebanese government that meets the needs of the Lebanese people,
Lebanon’s National News Agency said. Trump remarks came in a cable he sent to
President Michel Aoun to greet him on the occasion of Lebanon’s Independence
Day. "The American people share my best wishes for Lebanon's Independence Day.
The friendly relations between the Lebanese and American peoples are strong. The
United States is ready to work with a new Lebanese government that meets the
needs of the Lebanese by building a stable, prosperous, independent, and secure
country," Trump's letter said, according to an English-language report carried
by NNA. Lebanon’s dollar bonds meanwhile surged on Thursday in the wake of
Trump’s reported remarks and Speaker Nabih Berri’s call for a parliamentary
session next week.
U.N. Coordinator for Lebanon Denies Meddling in Govt.
Formation
Naharnet/November 21/2019
U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis on Thursday denied
interfering in the country’s cabinet formation process. “Following some
misleading media reports, the Office of the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon
(UNSCOL) would like to reconfirm its position concerning the government
formation,” the office said in a statement. It reminded that Kubis has called on
Lebanon’s leaders to “urgently nominate the Prime Minister-designate, start the
mandatory process of parliamentary consultations and to maximally accelerate the
process of the formation of the new government of personalities known for their
competence and integrity, trusted by the people.”“Such a Cabinet, formed in line
with the aspirations of the people and supported by the broadest range of
political forces through the Parliamentary vote of confidence, will also be in a
better position to appeal for support from Lebanon’s international partners,”
the office quoted Kubis as saying.“The Special Coordinator has not otherwise
intervened in the details of government formation, its character or its
composition as that remains a sovereign matter for Lebanon and its people to
decide,” it stressed.
French Embassy Urges Formation of 'Active and Credible'
Govt.
Naharnet/November 21/2019
The French embassy in Beirut on Thursday greeted the Lebanese on the eve of
their Independence Day, stressing that “France will always stand by Lebanon,
with which it has a very solid relation.”“Today, as the country writes a new
chapter of its history, amid a dire economic course, France strongly hopes for
the formation of an active and credible new government as soon as possible,” the
embassy said in a statement. It added that the new government should “take
fundamental and necessary measures to revive the country and meet the
aspirations of the Lebnese.”The U.S. embassy in Beirut meanwhile marked
Lebanon's Independence Day in a tweet saying: "With the Lebanese people. Today
and Tomorrow."
Lebanon: Fears of Open-ended Political
Crisis Amid Communications Interruption
Beirut - Mohammed Shukeir/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November,
2019
A well-informed minister, who has been following-up on intermittent contacts to
form a new government, said he was fearing a political deadlock at the peak of
the economic and financial crisis.
The minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
concerned parties were urgently required to agree on a rescue government that
could stop the deteriorating situation, adding that communication over the
appointment of a new prime minister were currently interrupted. He also
questioned President Michel Aoun’s stalling in setting a date for parliamentary
consultations and stressed that the delay in the designation of the
premier-designate was “no longer acceptable.”All parties have to recognize that
the birth of the government should lead to a “positive shock” that would meet
the demands of the popular movement, the minister underlined. The senior
minister, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that most of the channels of
communication were closed, and that the road to the presidential palace was
“politically” blocked, in light of Aoun’s insistence on forming a mixed
government of specialists and politicians. He noted that the positions of the
country’s main political parties were clear and divided between “a team that
insists on forming a government of politicians and technocrats, and another that
believes that the government of experts is inevitable.” Quoting caretaker Prime
Minister Saad Hariri, the minister said that the Lebanese people “no longer
accept us, and don’t want to hear from us.”“The people have the right to raise
their voice; and this obliges us to meet their demands, and work immediately to
provide solutions to their problems,” he quoted Hariri as saying, adding that
the caretaker prime minister did not understand some parties’ rejection of
forming a government of technocrats.”
Lebanon’s Speaker Invites MPs to Meet on Returning Stolen Funds
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri called on Thursday for two parliamentary committees
to meet to discuss draft legislation on banking secrecy and returning stolen
state funds. Berri's call comes after more than a month of nationwide protests
against the country's ruling elite and which have included demands for tackling
rampant corruption and the looting of state resources. He said the joint meeting
of the parliamentary finance and justice committees would be held on Nov. 27,
state news agency NNA reported. Lebanon's parliament, besieged by angry
protesters Tuesday, for a second time postponed a session to discuss draft laws
which critics charge would let corrupt politicians off the hook by granting
amnesty to thousands convicted of a range of offenses. The demonstrators see the
draft law as a way to clear powerful figures charged with or convicted of crimes
ranging from tax evasion to breaches of environmental regulations. Lebanon has
since October 17 been rocked by an unprecedented wave of popular street revolt
that have cut across sectarian lines. What started with protests against a plan
to tax online phone calls made through WhatsApp and other applications has
turned into a broader popular revolt against the perceived ineptitude and
corruption of the entire ruling class. Amid the crisis, Prime Minister Saad
Hariri bowed to street pressure and resigned on October 29.
Berri Calls Parliamentary Session, Presidency Cancels
Independence Reception
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 21/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has called for a session next Wednesday to study
draft laws related to banking secrecy and retaking stolen state money. Berri's
call came two days after protesters prevented legislators from reaching the
parliament building to draft and study new laws. The protesters say parliament
has no right to draft laws in the presence of a government acting in caretaker
capacity. President Michel Aoun's office meanwhile announced that a ceremony to
celebrate Independence Day at the presidential palace on Friday has been
canceled because of "the current situation."A military parade is still scheduled
to mark the anniversary at a barracks southeast of Beirut.
Berri Urges Lebanese to Show Unity, Protect Independence
Naharnet/November 21/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday called on Lebanese to show unity and
“protect independence.”“The same as the Lebanese made their independence 76
years ago through unity, all Lebanese are today asked to protect independence or
rather to recreate it through bolstering their unity and avoiding the traps of
sedition,” Berri said in a statement marking Independence Day.
Baabda Palace cancels Independence Day reception due to
current situation
NNA/November 21/2019
Due to the current situation in the Lebanon, the traditional annual Independence
Day reception at Baabda Presidential Palace will be cancelled, a statement by
the Palace's Directorate General of Protocol and Public Relations said on
Thursday.
Tarraf after meeting with Rahi pins hope efforts will yield
good results in Lebanon
NNA/November 21/2019
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Thursday welcomed
European Union Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, who paid him a protocol
visit after assuming his diplomatic duties in Lebanon. The meeting had been an
occasion to broach the most recent developments on the local and international
scenes. "It was of extreme importance for me to listen to his Beatitude's point
of view on the situation in Lebanon with its various religious, political, and
economic aspects, as well as to listen to his analysis and reading of the
situation," Tarraf said in the wake of his meeting with the Maronite Patriarch.
"We touched on the current situation in the country and the demonstrations that
have been lately witnessed up and down Lebanon. We also tackled the challenges
facing the political system, and the possibility of finding swift solutions to
standing issues," the EU diplomat added.
Tarraf relayed Rahi's optimistic view; he then hoped that things would improve
in Lebanon and that the efforts that were being exerted to remedy the situation
in Lebanon would bear fruit.
Statement of the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
NNA/November 21/2019
Following some misleading media reports, the Office of the UN Special
Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) would like to reconfirm its position concerning
the government formation. UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis has
called upon the leadership of Lebanon to urgently nominate the Prime
Minister-designate, start the mandatory process of parliamentary consultations
and to maximally accelerate the process of the formation of the new government
of personalities known for their competence and integrity, trusted by the
people. Such a Cabinet, formed in line with the aspirations of the people and
supported by the broadest range of political forces through the Parliamentary
vote of confidence, will also be in a better position to appeal for support from
Lebanon's international partners.
The Special Coordinator has not otherwise intervened in the details of
government formation, its character or its composition as that remains a
sovereign matter for Lebanon and its people to decide.--Kubis' Press Office
UNIFIL Commander to NNA: Israeli violations of Lebanon's
sovereignty and 1701 escalate tension
NNA/November 21/2019
In response to a question by the National News Agency on the recent Israeli
violations of Lebanese airspace, UNIFIL Commander, Major General Stefano Del
Col, noted that "UNIFIL recorded an increase in Israeli violations of Lebanese
airspace this week, including low-altitude sorties over Tyre carried out by
Israeli fighter aircraft in the early morning of November 20, causing panic
among the residents." Maj. Gen. Del Col said "Israeli violations of Lebanon's
sovereignty and the 1701 escalate tensions, especially as these sorties are
carried out at a low altitude, undermining our efforts to build public
confidence towards a stable security environment in southern Lebanon." The
UNIFIL Commander said he strongly objected in a letter addressed to the Israeli
army, requesting an immediate halt to these sorties in full respect of
Resolution 1701 and Lebanese sovereignty.
Kanaan from Bkerki: Financial situation is dangerous yet rescuing it still
possible
NNA/November 21/2019
"Strong Lebanon" MP Ibrahim Kanaan on Thursday visited Maronite Patriarch
Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi, in Bkerki, with talks reportedly touching on most
recent developments in the country, especially the financial and economic
situation. On emerging, MP Kanaan stressed the importance of the approval of the
state budget draft 2020, saying such a matter assures the Lebanese people and
provides the necessary funds for the functioning of state institutions. In reply
to a question about the delay in the call for parliamentary consultations, MP
Kanaan said the importance of the existing consultations lies with their
outcome, stressing that the solution should be political through a government
and the adoption of a budget without taxes."Lebanon is capable of getting out of
the crisis through a government and the endorsement of a budget without taxes
and through reforms," Kanaan maintained. The Lawmaker stressed the need for
reason, integration and dialogue between the popular movement and political
sides as a means to get out of the current crisis. Kanaan also deemed the
current financial situation as dangerous yet rescuing it still possible.
Lebanese Army Rejects Bloodshed in Dealing with Protesters
Beirut - Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
The Lebanese army leadership rejects bloody clashes with anti-government
demonstrators who took to the streets on October 17 to protest rising poverty
and ask for better state services, a Lebanese official with knowledge of
military affairs said. The army considers bloodshed a red line, the official
told Asharq Al-Awsat. Constitutionally, the military institution falls under the
authority of the Lebanese government. But since neither the cabinet nor the
Higher Defense Council have met since the eruption of protests, the army hasn’t
received any political instructions on ways to deal with demonstrators. It was
up to its leadership to decide what action to take to open roads blocked by the
protesters while taking into consideration that they are Lebanese citizens and
not terrorists or foreign enemies, said the official. The army sought to open
roads through dialogue with the protesters and certain decisive measures while
avoiding clashes. The military leadership is confident about its decision and
will not hesitate to apply similar measures if needed, the official added. There
were limited clashes with protesters because the army is not trained to deal
with protests, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. He said pressure keeps piling after the
leadership decided to put 90 percent of its reservists in service. “But we will
continue to carry out our duty.” The official said political parties had no role
in the first three days of protests when angry Lebanese took to the streets over
proposed new taxes. The masses included the poor as well as the wealthy who
wanted to express frustration at the deteriorating economic and financial
crisis. He added that the majority of protesters were youth from colleges and
universities, who are seen as the biggest constituents in the 2022 parliamentary
elections. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned his government on Oct. 29 in
response to the protests, which snowballed into calls for the entire political
elite to step aside.
Protesters Storm Central Bank Headquarters to Recite
Statement
Naharnet/November 21/2019
Five young men and women belonging to the Youth Movement for Change on Thursday
stormed the headquarters of the central bank on Hamra Street in protest at the
bank’s so-called financial engineering operations and other banking measures.
“They entered through the main gate and gathered in the lobby as one of them
started reciting a statement, but guards forced them to leave the lobby and the
statement was recited outside the bank,” the National News Agency said. A video
circulated on social media shows the guards charging against the protesters at
the bank's gate to push them out. TV networks said riot police also took part in
the confrontation. The statement criticized “banks’ exploitation and the
policies of the central bank governor,” noting that the governor’s “financial
engineering operations granted banks illicit gains that benefited top
depositors.”
Protesters from the same group had stormed the headquarters of the Association
of Banks in Lebanon in recent weeks.
Hezbollah, Amal Criticize Lebanese Army Behavior
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have lashed out at the Lebanese army and the
Internal Security Forces (ISF) accusing them of not exerting enough efforts to
open roads to lawmakers who failed to attend a parliamentary session that had
been scheduled for Tuesday. Anti-government protesters, who have taken to the
street since October 17, forced on Tuesday Amal leader Speaker Nabih Berri to
adjourn the session to a date that will be set later after they blocked all
roads leading to the parliament building in downtown Beirut. Berri and a member
of his parliamentary bloc, caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, blamed
the security apparatuses for failing to open the roads. Amal’s condemnations
were backed by Hezbollah. The Shiite party’s deputy Ali Ammar brought up the
issue again on Wednesday when he said: “We saw officers and soldiers
indifferently watching deputies who were insulted on checkpoints.”
For his part, Ali Khreis, an MP from Berri's bloc, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “If we
wanted to open the roads (leading to parliament) we could have opened 100 roads.
However, we are fighting sedition.”The deputy said Amal Movement is avoiding
bloodshed in the streets. “The parliament session was supposed to be held last
Tuesday under guarantees by the Lebanese army and the ISF to keep the roads
open. However both apparatuses did not deal seriously with this matter,” Khreis
said. He added that the roads to the legislature were blocked despite the
presence of only 1,500 protesters around the parliament building.
The Interior Ministry and the Internal Security Forces did not issue any
official responses to the accusations. However, military sources told Asharq Al-Awsat
that “the Lebanese army abided by it tasks. Army officers were not tasked to
oversee the roads near the parliament building. This was the mission of the ISF.”The
source added that the army was positioned in areas where all roads were open.
Report: France Could Launch an Initiative for Lebanon
Naharnet/November 21/2019
France could dispatch a new envoy to discuss an “initiative” to salvage
Lebanon’s crumbling economy, al-Akhbar daily reported on Thursday. Ministerial
sources said that information from the French capital indicate that the Elysee
Palace is sending a new envoy to Lebanon in order to discuss the possibility of
a "rescue" initiative on the economic level, according to the pro-Hizbullah
daily. Last week, France dispatched to Lebanon Christophe Farnaud, head of North
Africa and Middle East Department at the French Foreign Ministry. He held talks
with senior Lebanese officials. “The French do not prefer Lebanon’s collapse.
They fear it could trigger a wave of refugees to Europe, or affect their
political influence in this region of the world, or affect their troops
operating in the south as part of the international emergency forces, as well as
their investments in oil and gas and their CEDRE projects,” said the sources.
They said such an endeavor could not take place without US and British approval.
About a conference that may be held in Paris, if the French effort turns
successful, the sources pointed out that “it is too early to talk about the
results before the launch of the initiative.”
Argentina considering 'softening' the country's position on
Hezbollah
Jerusalem Post/November 21/2019
Elected president Alberto Fernandez may plan to make a distinction between the
political and Military wings of the Lebanese organization
Elected Argentinian president Alberto Fernandez is considering making changes to
his country's statement regarding Hezbollah as terrorist organization. The
change includes distinguishing between its military and political wings,
according to the statement received by the Israeli embassy in Argentina. Ynet
reports. This announcement was made at the President's office in a meeting
between him and the Israeli ambassador. There, he spoke of his desire to make
correction to the Hezbollah announcement made in July. This mean softening the
decision regarding the Lebanese organization. State sources in Jerusalem have
stated in response that "it's unclear if it's an experiment or his true
intention". Those same sources added that it would be very difficult for
Argentina to reverse its decision, mostly seeing as the American administration
will not see eye-to-eye with them and that such a decision would make it
difficult for the country to exchange intel with other western countries. In
Israel the estimation is that the one trying to make the change is former
president and current vice president of Fernandez, Christina Kirchner. Elected
president Fernandez, who used to be Kirchner's vice president, has already
confronted her in the past over an agreement she was signed onto with Iran
regarding the investigation of a terrorist attack in Buenos Aires. This is why
in Jerusalem they are finding it hard to believe Fernandez is supportive of the
decision, and suspect the announcement has to with pressure from Kirchner and
her party. Last July Argentina instructed to freeze assets of Hezbollah members
and effectively defined Hezbollah a terrorist organization. The announcement was
made in conjunction with American State Secretary Mike Pompeo's visit to the
country, and during the 25-year commemoration events to the attack in the Jewish
community center in Buenos Aires where 85 people were killed. Argentina accused
Hezbollah and Iran of committing the attack, both of which denied their
involvement in the event. Moreover, Argentina blamed the Shi'ite organization of
another terrorist attack in Buenos Aires in 1992 where 29 people were killed.
Argentina may have put the blame on Hezbollah for another 1994 attack, though no
one has been convicted of committing the crime as of yet.
Lebanese Pupils Protest against 'Outdated' Curriculum
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 21/2019
Several hundred school pupils protested Thursday in Lebanon against what they
described as an outdated curriculum that makes no mention of the
multi-confessional country's 15-year civil war. The protest outside the
education ministry in Beirut was the latest in a nationwide anti-government
street movement to have gripped Lebanon since October 17. "Our history books
need to be thrown out," 16-year-old Jana Jezzine said as around her protesters
waved the national flag and one woman made a show of burning a schoolbook.
History lessons in school textbooks stop with the withdrawal of French troops in
1946 -- three years after the end of France's 23-year mandate over Lebanon. But
a lack of consensus over a common version of the 1975-1990 civil war in the
country has led to it being completely omitted from the curriculum. Likewise,
textbooks make no mention of key events afterwards, such as the withdrawal of
Israeli troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 or the mass protests that ended
Syria's military presence in 2005. Eighteen-year-old Aya Haider said she had
endlessly studied the First and Second World Wars, but had been taught almost
nothing of her country's recent history. "I know nothing about the civil war,"
she told AFP, in a country where each religious community has its own version of
historical events. "My parents and friends told me that people would get stopped
because of their identity cards," she said, referring to militiamen singling out
members of certain religious sects at checkpoints during the conflict. The rest,
she says, she learned in dribs and drabs through acquaintances during the recent
anti-graft protests. Since last month, Lebanese from all religious backgrounds
have taken to the streets en masse to cry out against what they view as an
incompetent and corrupt ruling class. School pupils and university students have
emerged as a leading force during the demonstrations in recent weeks, saying
they will gladly lose a year's schooling to help rebuild their country.
Lebanon's economy is under severe strain after a series of political crises
compounded by the eight-year war in neighboring Syria, and youth unemployment
stands at more than 30 percent.
Students lead protests in Lebanon as President Aoun set to
speak
Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 21 November 2019
Students led protests in Lebanon on Thursday as President Michel Aoun is due to
give a speech the evening before the country’s Independence Day. Students staged
sit-ins outside schools and businesses in Tripoli, according to Lebanon’s
National News Agency (NNA). Local media also reported students outside schools
elsewhere in the country including Sidon, Beirut, and Halba. Aoun will give a
speech at 8:00 p.m. Lebanon time (10:00 p.m. Dubai time), said the NNA, on the
eve of Lebanon’s 76th anniversary of independence. However, the Palace’s
Directorate General of Protocol and Public Relations announced on Thursday
afternoon that the traditional annual Independence Day reception at Baabda
Presidential Palace has been cancelled. Aoun has refused to resign amid
protests, and claimed in a tweet on Thursday that US President Donald Trump told
him the US is ready to work with a new Lebanese government that responds to the
needs of its people. Also on Thursday afternoon, Lebanese House Speaker Nabih
Berri called for a parliamentary session next week to discuss draft legislation
on banking secrecy and returning stolen state funds. Berri had previously said
that the Lebanon is like a sinking ship that will go under unless action is
taken, but has voiced his opposition to protests. The country remains in
political and economic deadlock following former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s
resignation and a looming economic collapse. On Tuesday, it was reported that
Lebanon’s caretaker information minister Jamal al-Jarrah, who is a member of
Hariri’s Future bloc, and two former telecommunication ministers could face
corruption charges. Their cases have been referred to a special judicial panel
on accusations of wasting public funds. Corruption among the political elite is
one of the causes of the nationwide demonstrations which erupted in October.
Protesters blocked the Lebanese parliament from meeting to discuss a
controversial amnesty law on Tuesday.
Jarrah Hits Back at Financial Prosecutor, Accuses Him of
Corruption
Naharnet/November 21/2019
Caretaker Information Minister and ex-Telecom Minister Jamal Jarrah on Thursday
lashed out at Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim, accusing him of corruption and
of exceeding his jurisdiction. Jarrah’s remarks come a day after Ibrahim filed
lawsuits against him and against two other former telecom ministers – Nicolas
Sehnaoui and Butros Harb – over charges related to wasting public funds. Jarrah
is being additional sued over “embezzlement.”Accusing Ibrahim himself of
corruption, Jarrah said the financial prosecutor had been accused of offenses
pertaining to the Judges Solidarity Fund, real estate transactions and
favoritism. Protesters “have carried your pictures at Martyrs Square. Of course
you have the right to defend yourself through the judiciary and media outlets
and this is a natural right, but you don’t have the right to hurl accusations at
others,” the ex-minister added. “Judge Ibrahim knows that he has to maintain the
confidentiality of investigations, so why is he leaking false information to the
press? He is usurping the roles of the state prosecutor, the justice minister
and parliament,” Jarrah decried. “We are under the law and we are willing to
discuss all the tasks we carried out at the telecom and information ministries,”
the ex-minister added, urging an end to “distortion and falsification.”He also
said that he is willing to meet with any journalist to discuss any file.
Army Seizes Explosives in Jabal Mohsen
Naharnet/November 21/2019
The army on Thursday confiscated a quantity of explosives in the Tripoli
neighborhood of Jabal Mohsen. “An Intelligence Directorate patrol raided the
house of Lebanese citizen Z.Kh. in the Jabal Mohsen area, Tripoli, arresting him
along with R.Kh. and A.S.,” an army statement said.
“A quantity of explosives was seized in their possession,” it added. “The
detainees and the seized material were referred to the relevant authorities as
an investigation got underway,” the army said. The veteran politician argued
that it was time for an "investigation of the investigators". He vowed to
continue as prime minister despite potential court dates and intense political
pressure. "I will continue to lead this country, according to the letter of the
law," he said."I will not allow lies to win."
Court Session of ex-Israeli Collaborator Amer Fakhoury
Postponed
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 21/2019
A court session in the case of Lebanese-American ex-Israeli collaborator Amer
Fakhoury was postponed Thursday because of his illness, state-run National News
Agency said. NNA said the session in the southern city of Nabatiyeh was
postponed until Dec. 5.Lebanon and Israel have been officially at war since
Israel's creation in 1948. Fakhoury had worked as a senior warden at the Khiam
Prison in southern Lebanon that was run by the Israeli-backed militia known as
South Lebanon Army. e was detained after returning to his native Lebanon from
the U.S. in September. Outside the courthouse in Nabatiyeh, scores of people,
including former Khiam prison detainees, gathered outside the building known as
Palace of Justice. Former detainees have accused Fakhoury of major abuses at the
prison.
Soldier who Shot Abu Fakhr Dead Charged with Murder
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 21/2019
State-run National News Agency reported Thursday that the soldier who shot and
killed the protester Alaa Abu Fakhr in Khalde last week has been charged by a
military prosecutor with murder. The agency said that a colonel who was on the
scene with the soldier at the time of the shooting was also charged Thursday. On
Nov. 12, Abu Fakhr was shot dead by the soldier, who was trying to open a road
closed by protesters in Khalde, marking the second death since widespread
protests against Lebanon's ruling elite began Oct. 17. The soldier, who has been
under detention since the day of the shooting, and the colonel were referred to
a military investigative judge who will start questioning them on Monday,
according to NNA.
A most peaceful revolution
Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 21/2019
When disgruntled Lebanese protesting societal dysfunction flooded the street on
October 17, few had envisioned that an impassioned momentum would be garnered
and sustained.
BEIRUT: Exactly one year ago, marking Lebanon's 75th Independence Day, I wrote
an op-ed lamenting the country's abysmal reality, calling it a failed state; and
for good reason. Its economy was in shambles, its infrastructure was
crumbling before our very eyes and the government formation crisis had entered
its seventh month. That very government would be assembled two months later only
to resign before the year's end in the wake of the popular uprising that has
gripped Lebanon for the better part of a month. 12 months after that opinion
piece, not much has changed on those fronts. Yet in the midst of our many
ailments, a renewed sense of hope has emerged fueled by a collective awakening.
A collective awakening that has broken religious and social constructs that had
clutched Lebanon since the conclusion of its bloody civil war almost 30 years
ago. A collective awakening that has shattered the unwritten and suppressive
guidelines that had shielded our ruling political class. A collective awakening
that has paved the way for Lebanese to rewrite the rulebook of a peaceful
revolution and what it entails.
When disgruntled Lebanese protesting societal dysfunction flooded the streets on
October 17, few had envisioned that an impassioned momentum would be garnered
and sustained.
Many, young and old, including our decades-old political class, discounted the
movement; and many still do. They accused demonstrators of inciting violence,
before castigating their many displays of non-violence. They accused the older
generation of spurring sectarian wounds, before scolding students in search of a
better tomorrow. They even attempted to change the narrative, labeling the
country’s financial crisis as a product of the revolution, instead of its root
cause. Yet the sense of community, fraternity, and camaraderie that has
developed is palpable to the staunchest of cynics. Beirut and its public spaces
have become a beaming hub of honest discussions and debates. Finally, the public
sphere, defined as a space in social life where individuals can come together to
freely discuss and identify societal problems to be tackled through political
action, has been returned to its rightful owners.
Cleaning efforts, initiated by hundreds of volunteers, have put the cumulative
performances of all our previous environment ministers to shame. From recycling
tents in Martyr's Square to the poor being fed and clothed, finally, the
stereotype of Lebanese passiveness is being ruptured.
Over 30 days since that first rally in downtown Beirut and officials across the
political spectrum continue to collude, connive and conspire as evidenced by the
establishment's concerted opposition to the independent candidate Melhem Khalaf
in the race to head the Beirut Bar Association. Khalaf, a law professor at Saint
Joseph University, emerged victorious this week in what many hope to be the
first of many triumphs.
Over 30 days since that first rally in downtown Beirut and officials continue in
their shady dealings, attempting to pass dubious legislation that possibly
pardons previous financial crimes; only to be stopped by thousands of courageous
men and women who blocked roads in central Beirut preventing lawmakers from
reaching the parliament. In what could only be described as a show of
unity nourished by a collective awakening, men and women from all walks of life
gathered in the early hours of Tuesday morning to block the seven different
roads leading to parliament. They faced riot police, with women protesters
forming a live barrier between the two sides, as well as live ammunition after
an MP's convoy fired shots in the air to keep protesters at bay.
A woman desperately hangs on to a young man who is being dragged away by riot
police as they attempt to clear protestors blocking a road leading to parliament
on Tuesday, November 19, 2019 (Myriam Boulos) Men, women, and children have all
been catalysts for change, putting aside differences that had long divided them.
Women, as Dr. Jack Tohme noted, have moved passed their supportive roles, taking
a leading constructive role of development and dignity for a better future for
the children.As Lebanon nears its 76th Independence Day, a united demand for the
end of the status-quo has reignited a sense of unfettered patriotism, long lost
to sectarian politics that had placed leaders before country. One year later,
one can't help but revel at the progress, all the while gazing ahead at the
future we've all been longing for.
Shortages of food and medical supplies loom over Lebanon
protests
Matthew Amlôt and Lauren Holtmeier/Al Arabiya English/November 21/2019
New regulations to protect bank solvency during Lebanon’s street protests are
already impacting medical supplies and could soon create shortages of food and
other essentials, according to business owners.
The highly indebted country was already in a precarious financial position
before the protests shut down banks for several weeks, prompting many Lebanese
businesses and individuals to try to withdraw their deposits and draw down
credit lines on fears of future shortages.
In response, banks have imposed withdrawal limits, reduced credit lines and
there is a growing shortage of hard currency needed for imports.
“I have a hospital now. Their CT scanner broke down and they needed a part. I
couldn’t supply the part,” said Wassim Boustany, the owner of General Medical
Equipment (GME), a distributor of medical equipment in Lebanon, at the time of
the interview.
Businesses are now struggling to get hold of dollars for imports as the central
bank restricts supply, so businesses have to resort to the black market where
dollars cost 20-25 percent more than the official currency peg bracket of
1,507.5-1515 pounds to the dollar.
“I can’t afford to pay the loss of 25 percent, so the CT scanner is down now.
[The hospital] is trying to get dollars from the bank, but I don’t know if they
will succeed,” he explained.
Salma Assi, the business unit director at medical supplies importer Benta
Trading, said spare parts for medical equipment were in short supply. “No one
has spare parts in stock … there is equipment in the hospitals that are stopping
because we don’t have parts to replace the old parts,” he said.
Businesses also report that their credit facilities have been drastically
reduced and restrictions on transfers.
“Effectively we’re not able to operate, we’re not able to pay money abroad
practically,” said Jeanine Ghosn, managing director of Gabriel Bocti, an
independent food and beverage distributor.
Lebanon’s central bank governor Riad Salameh told reporters last week that
authorities have “no desire” to impose capital controls – a phrase used to refer
to a set of measures to limit the flow of foreign capital in and out of an
economy.
Although authorities have yet to institute a formal system of capital controls,
banks have been imposing de facto controls on customers as a way to preserve
solvency. Last week the rating agency Standard & Poor’s noted that,
“Notwithstanding unofficial capital controls imposed by banks, we expect deposit
outflows to accelerate during the rest of the year … The recent imposition of
restrictions on foreign-currency deposit withdrawals by banks raises questions
about the monetary and banking regime.”
The Association of Banks in Lebanon on Sunday said that the transfer of hard
currency abroad should be only to cover “urgent personal expenses,” while banks
were also told to limit weekly withdrawals from US dollar accounts to $1,000.
Businesses have been unable to pay their overseas suppliers and have had orders
stuck at the border, as it now appears cash is now required to pay for customs.
One importer reported being able to use a cashier check.
Credit facilities – a crucial cog in the trade finance machine – have been cut
or halted completely by banks, often without warning.
“The cancelation of overdraft facilities and credit lines has resulted in a halt
of transfer of funds. We cannot transfer funds,” Boustany explained.
The situation has been further exacerbated by banks restricting access to cash –
regardless of client deposits. “We have euros, dollars, and lira in the account,
and they’re not sending our transfers,” said Joe Abdallah, the chairman of food
distributor Moussallem & Partners.
“There’s no capital controls officially, but this will make us lose credibility
with our suppliers eventually because the official line is something, but the
reality is completely different,” Ghosn said.
Many importers believe that serious food and medical supply shortages could
emerge within a few weeks as imports begin to dry up. The country relies heavily
on imports – the UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates Lebanon needs to
import 80 percent of its cereal grain crop consumption.
This system of ad hoc banking policies, similar to formal capital controls,
disproportionately affect regular banking clientele, according to Jamil Chaya,
assistant professor in finance at Rafik Hariri University. Bigger and
better-connected clients have more access to circumnavigate these controls and
access financial instruments, with small and medium-sized businesses and lower
and middle-income households hit worst.
Several businesses report their relationships with banks have come under strain.
“The banks in Lebanon used to help us, and now everything has suddenly stopped,”
Boustany said.
Despite the harmful effects of the restrictions, Lebanese banks are in a
difficult position. In his televised address last week, Salameh noted that
people have withdrawn $3 billion from banks due to economic fears. Financial
institutions do not maintain a supply of cash for all of the deposits on their
books, meaning that a bank faces serious risk should an escalating situation of
withdrawals ensue, as customers demand more cash than the bank has on hand –
which could force it to collapse.
“Banks do need some form of capital controls, because it is true that there are
a lot of withdrawals … Unusual times call for unusual measures, and countries
have used capital controls to get out of hard times,” noted Chaya.
This will come, however, as little comfort to those businesses and individuals
that are suffering serious financial burden.
“I’m from the generation of the war, and we faced a lot of war and crisis, and
I’ve never seen anything like this. Even under the bombs, the banks would open
one to two hours a day,” added Salma Assi.
Gebran Bassil: Lebanon’s controversial power broker and
potential next president
Tommy Hilton/Al Arabiya English/November 21/2019
Before nationwide protests erupted across Lebanon last month, Foreign Minister
Gebran Bassil had been widely touted as Lebanon’s next president in waiting,
handpicked by his father-in-law, the current President Michel Aoun. A month
later, he has become a hate figure for many protesters, who have called into
question his future – and that of the whole political establishment.
But who is Bassil, and is he still a viable candidate for presidency?
Early years and the Free Patriotic Movement
Gebran Bassil was born June 21, 1970 in Lebanon.
Raised as a Maronite Christian, he graduated from the American University of
Beirut (AUB) with a degree in civil engineering in 1992 and a Master’s in
Communications in 1993. In 1999, he married Chantal Michel Aoun, the daughter of
former army general and disputed Prime Minister Michel Aoun, who was then in
exile having fought a “war of liberation” against Syrian forces at the end of
the Lebanese Civil War. Bassil’s political career began in the late 1990s, when
he worked as a political activist for Aoun’s movement to oppose Syrian forces
occupying Lebanon. Aoun established the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which
Bassil now leads, in 2005 after protests led to the withdrawal of the Syrian
army from Lebanon. That year the FPM won 21 seats in parliament, becoming the
second biggest parliamentary bloc. Bassil contested a seat for the FPM in his
hometown of Batroun, but failed to win. Nevertheless, he played a prominent role
in the FPM under Aoun, which signed a memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah
in 2006. This move created the “March 8” political alliance, in opposition to
the “March 14” alliance led by Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, and Bassil remains
allied to Hezbollah today, despite the FPM being a largely Christian and
previously anti-Syrian party.
Minister and FPM leader
Bassil was appointed Minister of Communications after the FPM entered government
in 2008, despite not being an MP. The following year he became Minister of
Energy and Water. As Energy Minister, Bassil was accused of corruption relating
to $33 million revenues reportedly linked to the sale of data for Lebanon’s
offshore reserves. Bassil became leader of the FPM in September, 2015, following
Aoun’s ascendancy to the Presidency. The FPM membership reportedly favored Alain
Aoun, the president’s nephew, but President Michel Aoun himself favored Bassil -
allegedly the reason Alain stood aside and Bassil was elected. In the 2018
parliamentary elections, the FPM won 29 MPs – making it the largest bloc in
parliament. Bassil won a seat in a district including his hometown Batroun.
Foreign Minister
Two years before, Bassil had been appointed Minister for Foreign Affairs and
Emigrants in 2016.
Under his tenure, key issues have included President Saad Hariri’s resignation
in 2017 and the ongoing developments in the war in Syria – where Bassil’s
Iran-backed Hezbollah allies are fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad. As Minister for Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Bassil has gained
notoriety for his anti-migrant rhetoric, for example when he said that Syrian
refugees should return home despite the ongoing war and that Lebanon should put
Lebanese workers first. Bassil has repeatedly appealed to the large Lebanese
diaspora to support the country, including by keeping up remittances which are a
crucial part of the Lebanese economy.Bassil and the FPM’s alliance with
Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by countries
including the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia, has strained relations with members of
the international community. Hezbollah-affiliated politicians and banks have
been the target of US sanctions, with the US recently threatening to extend
sanctions to the organization’s allies.
‘Public enemy number one’
While demonstrators have called for the fall of the entire government, Bassil
has emerged as the target of a popular profane chant and is seen by many as the
embodiment of the political establishment. “For the revolution, public enemy
number one is Bassil, as he is the face of corruption and his antagonistic and
condescending attitude has alienated and ostracized the majority of the
Lebanese,” explained Makram Rabah, a lecturer at AUB. For many, Bassil’s
unpopularity has ruined his chances of succeeding Aoun as president. “Bassil
chances of becoming the next president seem nonexistent,” said Sami Zoughaib,
Public Policy Researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “The streets
have been quite vocal in their opinion in him: He’s seen as a manifestation of
all that is wrong with our current political system.”But others warn not to rule
out Bassil. “Just because he is no longer the favorite for the presidency, it
does not mean that his allies Hezbollah – and Bassil himself – won’t push for
it,” said Rabah.
With Uprisings Pervasive Today, Where is the
Arab World Heading in the Coming Decade?
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 21/2019
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North
African politics and security.
Eugene Rogan | Director of the Middle East Center at St. Antony’s College,
Oxford University, author of The Arabs: A History (Penguin 2009) and The Fall of
the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, 1914-1920 (Penguin 2015)
In 2011, Arab states split into three categories. There were the republics whose
people rose up demanding regime change and gave us the Arab Spring. There were
the monarchies who, with the brief exception of Bahrain, resisted the call of
popular revolt. And there were those states with a recent history of civil war
that hesitated. In 2019, they hesitate no more. Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and
Iraq know the price that comes with civil disorder. But even they reached
breaking point with corrupt regimes and inequality dividing an ever growing body
of have-nots from an ever smaller elite that has it all.
Suddenly it no longer looks like the Arab Spring ended or failed. It looks as
though what started in 2011 is continuing, with setbacks and interruptions but
continuing nonetheless. Without ever mentioning democracy, the Arab peoples are
demanding government accountable to the people, they are demanding social
justice, and they are rejecting autocracy and kleptocracy. They have been
remarkably consistent over the past decade, and remarkably courageous in the
pursuit of their legitimate demands. One hopes they have learned the lessons of
2011 and won’t repeat the mistakes that delivered the hard-earned gains of
popular revolution to the forces of counterrevolution. And one wonders how much
longer the monarchies can resist the popular will for good governance. By all
evidence, the Arab world is undergoing a tectonic change, and the coming decade
promises further challenges to the established order.
Amr Hamzawy | Senior research scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development,
and the Rule of Law in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at
Stanford University
The meager results of the 2011 democratic uprisings in the Arab world gradually
silenced popular calls for democratic change and accountable government. By 2013
Arab majorities, either collectively demobilized from protesting or disenchanted
in the face of civil wars and repression, seemed once again willing to accept
their governments’ autocratic bargain: food and security in return for
submission to unaccountable rulers.
To ensure that the 2011 spring is not revived, Arab governments, with the
exception of Tunisia, have passed draconian laws limiting citizens’ freedoms.
They have extended the reach of the security services to keep opposition groups
and pro-democracy activists in check. Furthermore, Arab governments have
allocated more and more of the scarce resources in their states to regime
loyalists in the upper echelons of corrupt state bureaucracies and to crony
business communities. They have used vast media arsenals to create personality
cults around the rulers—presidents, kings, or crown princes—who have been
portrayed as their nations’ sole saviors.
Yet, toward the end of 2018 and throughout the last months of 2019, Arab
governments unexpectedly started to face popular challenges to their hopes for a
Pax Autocratia. In countries not part of the 2011 uprisings, citizens took to
the streets demanding political change. In Sudan, Algeria, Iraq, and Lebanon,
popular protests were fueled by economic hardship and negative perceptions of
their governments’ commitment to improving standards of living and ending
corruption. Whereas demands for political change in Sudan and Algeria focused on
ending the reign of military controlled autocratic governments that presided
over deteriorating economies, staggering corruption, and poor public services,
as well as human rights abuses, demands for change in Iraq and Lebanon aimed at
transcending sectarian politics. In all four countries, autocratic and sectarian
governments will not give up easily. The interplay between them and protesting
citizens will continue to shape Arab realities in the next decade.
Intissar Fakir | Fellow in the Carnegie Middle East Program, editor of Sada
Since 2011, the range of transformations that have taken place in the Middle
East and North Africa has left very little settled. Notions of governance,
popular participation, pluralism—in essence the relationships that tie citizens
to their governing structures—are still being negotiated and hashed out.
In Lebanon and Iraq, citizens are challenging sectarian-based political
structures that the governments in both countries have relied upon to maintain
power and (relative) stability. Elsewhere in the region, the challenging of
these very notions is being manifested differently: the election of
unconventional and potentially disruptive leaders, proliferating protest
movements, increased migration, and even conflict and violence. The desire to
undo the status quo and to reimagine political systems and the very foundations
of nations is part of a global trend. These are moments of promise and hope for
the region, even if there is much to fear.
Amel Boubekeur | Researcher at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales,
the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, in Paris
What is currently called the Arab Spring 2.0 is actually a continuation of a
longer historical accumulation of techniques for opposing authoritarian
resilience that has survived through sham elections and the clientelistic
redistribution of resources. Rather than just reading what is going on as
efforts to get rid of dictators and aim for immediate democratization, as in the
so-called Arab Spring 1.0, the ongoing uprisings should invite us to be more
attentive to efforts by Arab peoples to regain control of the mechanisms of
governance. In a nutshell, people seek to separate the ruling elite from the
state. Therefore, sorting out the blurred arrangements between the formal and
informal use of the state and power politics will be what the coming decade is
about.
This means, among other things, putting pressure on the military—or in some
cases on sectarian groups—to stop ruling by hiding behind puppet presidents and
mock civilian justice. It means asking monarchies to act as fair arbiters, not
as participants in political and economic games. It means inventing new
negotiating schemes and replacing opposition parties whose disconnection from
the people reinforces the ruling elite’s centrality. Finally, it means
addressing how informal economic practices are more useful to leaders’
monopolies than productive economies.
The difficulty in overcoming the informal capture of the state by regimes
through the corrupted formal means they enjoy—such as parliament, electoral
processes, and political parties—is likely to push Arab societies to continue to
push against those in power through unauthorized mass protests, resistance to
iniquitous bureaucracies, and the proliferation of local political debates. The
rupture seems inevitable although the outcomes are still unclear.
Tripoli protesters mull the return of PM Saad Hariri
Jacob Boswall/Al Arabiya English/November 21/2019
A month into Lebanon’s uprising, Tripolitans are still chanting for the fall of
the regime. But for some, the return of ousted Prime Minister Saad Hariri is
fast becoming the best option on the table.
Tripoli has been named the “bride” of Lebanon’s anti-establishment revolution
which broke out on October 17. Exactly one month later, hundreds are still
gathering in the city’s al-Nour square to listen to revolutionary speeches and
music well into the night.
It is impossible to forget why this city, where around half of the population
live below the poverty line, has been upheld as an example for other protesters
across Lebanon. Painted on an enormous abandoned building overlooking the square
is a Lebanese flag some fifty meters across. One recent addition to the vast
mural is Alaa Abou Fakher, the first fatality of the protests, known to many as
the “martyr of the revolution.”
Protesters in Tripoli show no outward signs of relenting in their demands, even
after momentum died down in other parts of the country. Sitting with a group of
female family members, Hadia, a mother from Tripoli, is confident that the
revolutionary spirit is here to stay.
“The number of people are the same - in fact it is growing… we are hoping that
[politicians] will see we are staying, and they will agree on fixing the
situation we are in,” she told Al Arabiya English.
As for protesters’ demands, “nothing has changed. We have said we want the fall
of the regime - from the top of the pyramid to the smallest employee they have.
They are all corrupt,” Hadia continued.
The optimism is echoed by many protesters, including Abd al-Rahman, a 25
year-old resident of Tripoli. “The demands are the same. Actually, we are adding
more demands. The financial situation has become harder. Now if you go into a
house you wouldn’t find even LBP 1,000. Tripoli is an area of poverty,” he said.
Unemployment and economic deprivation have been driving factors for protesters
in Tripoli - many, including Abd al-Rahman feel there is little reason to return
to their jobs.
“Tripoli is an area of poverty. When people talk about Tripoli they think we are
all extremists and members of ISIS. But when they come here and see us, they
realize we are just normal people,” he continued.
A mural with the Lebanese flag in Tripoli, November 17, 2019. (Emily Lewis)
However, as Lebanon ends its third week without a government, some protesters
view the return of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the best option for a
country in political gridlock. Hariri resigned on October 29 under pressure from
nationwide street protests, automatically causing the resignation of his
30-member Cabinet. Until now, attempts to form a government have foundered due
to disagreements between Hariri’s Future Movement and the Free Patriotic
Movement, led by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil.
The stalemate intensified on Saturday when former minister Mohammad Safadi, a
candidate backed by all the main parties, withdrew his candidacy after wide
scale outrage from protesters.
“If Prime Minister Saad Hariri returned, it wouldn’t matter. We are not going to
find someone better than him, to be honest,” Hadia told Al Arabiya English. “But
of course we wouldn’t allow them to appoint ministers or MPs from the political
class or political parties, as [Hariri] is saying,” she continued.
For Abd al-Rahman, the best candidate for premiership would be someone with no
links to the ruling class - “someone from the people.”
“But the best politician would be Saad Hariri,” he added. “Mohammad Safadi, or
anyone else - they are all the same. But Hariri is better than the rest. He
knows how the game works,” Abd al-Rahman told Al Arabiya English.
Shop-keeper Munzir al-Maamari trusts Hariri because of the former prime
minister’s philanthropic investments in Tripoli. “It’s not that I like Hariri.
But I find Saad Hariri the most respectable politician ... I don’t know how much
money he has poured into Tripoli. He used to help, open universities and helped
the people of Tripoli a lot. I feel I can trust him because he’s not like the
others.”
“We want the country to be fixed. Whether it is Hariri or not Hariri, it doesn’t
matter. Today people are asking for the most basic rights, such as roads, free
education, hospitals. In short, people are simply asking to live with dignity in
their country,” Maamari continued.
One mother, who requested to remain unnamed, told Al Arabiya that she would be
happy to see Hariri reinstated as Prime Minister - providing that he carried out
meaningful reforms to see the end of corruption.
“Not all of them are corrupt and we should give a chance to reform, this is my
opinion. Even Hariri, if he carries out reforms, why not. Him or anyone else.
They need to repair what was broken. We will give them a chance,” she told Al
Arabiya English, before adding: “This will be the last chance.”
Protesters wave flags at Tripoli's central roundabout on the evening of November
17, 2019. (Emily Lewis)
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on November 21-22/2019
برسم القضاء اللبناني...القضاء الإسرائيلي
يتهم نتنياهو بالرشوة والاحتيال وخرق الثقة
أعلن قبل قليل بأنه لأول مرة منذ قيام دولة إسرائيل يتم اتهام رئيس وزراء بالرشوة
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Netanyahu Charged With Bribery, Fraud and Breach of Trust, Capping a Dramatic
Political Year
Netael Bandel/Haarez/November 21/2019
Netanyahu becomes first sitting prime minister in Israel's history to be charged
with bribery, in case involving quid-pro-quo with telecom tycoon
For the first time in Israel's history, a sitting prime minister is accused of
bribery: Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit announced Thursday Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu would be charged with bribery, fraud and breach in three
corruption cases, dubbed Cases 4000, 2000 and 1000. The indictment comes after a
four-day hearing with Netanyahu's defense team last month, followed by weeks of
intensive discussion at the attorney general's offices.
Case 4000
Case 4000 is considered the most serious, and revolves around an alleged bribery
deal between Netanyahu and businessman Shaul Elovich, who controlled the Bezeq
telecommunications company and the Walla News site. According to the indictment,
Netanyahu and Elovich engaged in a quid-pro-pro deal in which Netanyahu – as
communication minister – led regulatory steps directly tied to Elovich's
businesses and interests that yielded the tycoon some $500 million. In return,
according to the indictment, Netanyahu and his wife Sara made consistent
requests to alter the coverage on the Walla News website in order to serve the
Netanyahus' interests and target their opponents. Elovich allegedly pressed the
editors of the website to comply with the Netanyahus' demands. Substantial
circumstantial evidence convinced Mendelblit that both Elovich and Netanyahu
were aware of the quid-pro-quo, though there is no evidence of an explicit
coordination of the deal. Netanyahu's attorneys argued that favorable coverage
does not constitute a bribe and that in any case the prime minister didn't try
to skew the coverage in his favor but rather pushed for balanced coverage out of
ideology. In addition, they claimed all decisions made by Netanyahu in his role
as communication minister were approved by the ministry's professional staff.
Netanyahu: I will continue to lead the country in face of
an attempted coup by the law enforcement arm
DEBKAfile/November 21/2019
PM Binyamin Netanyahu sharply rebutted the Attorney General Amihai Mandlblit’s
decision to indict him on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of faith. He
accused law enforcement authorities of conducting “a polluted, tendentious
inquiry” designed to set him up personally “or removal as prime minister.”
Netanyahu vowed he would continue to lead the country unless forced out by a
High Court petition. He accused the police and prosecution systems of years of
legal abuse, citing examples. The people have lost faith in the law enforcement
authorities, he said. They deserve a decent, law-abiding system, and demanded
that an external, nonpartisan commission of inquiry investigate the
investigators and clean up the system.
Mandelblit earlier laid out in a public press conference his reasoning for
deciding to indict the prime minister, saying he did so with a heavy heart but
in full conviction that he was performing his duty.
Netanyahu fired back by charging police investigators backed by chief prosecutor
Shay Nitzan of building their case against him by extorting lying admissions
from witnesses by threats against their families. They should be brought to
trial.
In a powerful fighting speech, Netanyahu said he was proud of what he had
achieved for the country as its prime minister and vowed to continue. He
promised to roll up his sleeves to persuade the voter in the coming election to
make an honest decision to stand by him instead of those sworn to bring him
down.
DEBKAfile reported earlier:
Attorney General Amihai Mendelblit came to an earth-shattering decision on
Thursday, Nov. 21 to prosecute Binyamin Netanyahu for bribery – the first such
indictment ever brought against a sitting Israeli prime minister. The case
against Netanyahu consists of three indictments: bribery, fraud and breach of
faith under File No. 4,000, fraud and breach of faith under Files 1000 and 2000.
The AG has passed copies of the files to the Knesset Speaker in the event of the
prime minister seeking to invoke the law permitting him to apply for immunity
while in office against trial for a criminal offense.
File 4000 Bezeg-Walla charges Mr and Mrs. Shaul Elovich with bribing the prime
minister, and obstruction of justice. Elovich is accused of ordering the Walla
news site to offer Netanyahu favorable coverage in return for alleged
concessions to the Bezeq corporation, which he owned. In File 2000, Arnon Mozes,
proprietor and editor of the large-circulation Yediot Aharonot, is accused of
offering to bribe the prime minister, which he did not accept although
negotiations continued. File 1000 alleges that the prime minster inappropriately
received a steady flow of cigars and champagne worth thousands of shekels from a
rich friend. The Justice Ministry announced that the AG’s decision followed an
exhaustive hearing of the prime minister’s attorneys in October and a thorough
investigation of all their claims in his defense. The prosecution’s conclusions,
covering hundreds of pages, were that none of the facts and arguments presented
in that hearing were relevant for altering its decisions regarding the
allegations against the prime minister. The AG insisted that there were no
grounds to claim that because no money changed hands, bribery had not occurred.
Defiant Netanyahu Rejects Graft Indictment, Vows to Stay
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 21/2019
A defiant Benjamin Netanyahu rejected all allegations of graft Thursday, vowing
to stay on as leader in Israel despite being indicted on a series of corruption
charges. Netanyahu denounced what he called the "false" and "politically
motivated" allegations, hours after being charged by the attorney general with
bribery, fraud and breach of trust. "What is going on here is an attempt to
stage a coup against the prime minister," Netanyahu said. "The object of the
investigations was to oust the right wing from government."In a 15-minute
speech, Netanyahu railed against his political rivals and state institutions,
accusing the police and judiciary of bias.
US statement on Israeli settlements is ‘Deal of the
Century’ in action: Experts
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 19 November 2019
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement that the Trump administration
no longer considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal, is putting the
“deal of the century” into action, according to experts. Palestinian political
analyst Zaha Hassan told Al Arabiya English that the announcement is “the
rolling out” of the unreleased political portion of the Trump administration’s
Middle East peace proposal, named the “Deal of the Century” by US President
Donald Trump. “This is part of the rolling out of the proposal. Instead of doing
it on paper, the administration is doing it in practice,” said Hassan, a fellow
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who previously worked as a
senior legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team. Pompeo said in a
speech at the State Department on Monday that the Trump administration, after
carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, concluded the “establishment
of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent
with international law.”Hassan said Pompeo’s announcement was unsurprising,
considering two previous Trump administration actions: recognizing Israeli
sovereignty over the Golan Heights (territory seized by Israel in the 1967
Middle East war and officially annexed from Syria in 1981) and recognizing the
disputed city of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Israel considers the entire city
of Jerusalem its capital, while the Palestinians see east Jerusalem as the
capital of their future state.
A shift in US policy?
The Trump administration position on Israeli settlements is being called a major
departure from decades of US foreign policy. However, in his remarks, Pompeo
mentioned Republican President Ronald Reagan’s comment in 1981 that the
settlements were not “inherently illegal.”Former US envoy to the Middle East
Ambassador Dennis Ross told Al Arabiya English Pompeo’s basic position was
“actually in line” with every presidential administration since Reagan. “Even
[US President Barack] Obama did not speak of illegality [of the settlements],
but of illegitimacy. The point is that the issue of settlements is going to have
to be resolved at the negotiating table. It is one of the permanent status
issues,” said Ross, who played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the
Middle East peace process for over twelve years. “That said, it is true that
every administration viewed settlement activity as a real problem and an
obstacle to peace-making. The timing will add to the difficulty of getting the
hearing it says it wants for the plan,” said Ross. Ross added that there is a
clear danger “those on the Israeli right will use [Pompeo’s announcement] to
annex territories” and doom any prospect of a two state solution. Previous
presidents on both sides of the aisle have tried to stem the construction of
Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Former Republican President George H. W.
Bush’s administration withheld funds from Israel because it would not stop
building settlements. Former Democratic President Barack Obama allowed the
passage of UN Resolution 2334 that called Israel’s settlements a “flagrant
violation” of international law. The announcement reverses a longstanding State
Department legal opinion upon which US policy was based, until now. The opinion,
issued by the State Department in 1978, concluded establishing settlements in
the Palestinian territories went against international law.
International reaction
The Trump administration’s revised position on settlements has been met with
international criticism. The UN Human Rights office and European Union have
reaffirmed their common position that Israeli settlements in occupied
Palestinian territory are in breach of international law. Critics say the
Israeli settlements impinge on the land of native Arab Palestinians, depriving
them of their natural rights as inhabitants of the land, and restrict the mostly
rural Palestinian population from undertaking farming and other activities
related to the cultivation of their land. The Palestinian Authority on Monday
slammed the position as “completely against international law.” Washington is
“not qualified or authorized to cancel the resolutions of international law, and
has no right to grant legality to any Israeli settlement,” Palestinian
presidential spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeinah said in a statement. Arab League
Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit condemned Pompeo’s statement as “a very
negative development.” He said the decision would result in “more violence and
cruelty” against the Palestinians at the hands of the Israeli settlers and
“undermines any possibility” of achieving peace. While Arab states certainly do
not like the announcement, it will not affect their relationships with the US,
according to Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “The
announcement won’t change relations with [the Arab states] because the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not their central concern - Iran is,” said
Doran.Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) representative for Jerusalem,
Bernard Sabella, told Al Arabiya English that the Trump administration “knows it
will not pay any price for its decisions on settlements, Jerusalem, the
Golan...accordingly it is intent to back Israel even with its illegal
settlements and in contradiction to international law, Oslo Accords and
international understandings.”Sabella said that these decisions will damage the
credibility of the current administration in pursuing an honest broker role in
future peace negotiations.
Israel President Asks Parliament to Find PM
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
Israel's President Reuven Rivlin tasked parliament Thursday with finding a new
prime minister, as he sought to avoid new elections after incumbent Benjamin
Netanyahu and rival Benny Gantz each failed to form a government following
recent elections. The failure has set Israel on course for yet another vote
after two inconclusive results. "Starting today and for 21 days the decision of
who to task with forming the government is in the hands of the members of the
Knesset (parliament)," Rivlin said, a day after Gantz admitted he would be
unable to build a governing coalition. Parliament will now have until December
11 to find a candidate who can command the support of the majority of the
country's 120 MPs or a new general election will be called for early 2020. It
would be the third such poll within 12 months. Rivlin, who has been urging a
compromise to break the political deadlock, met with Knesset speaker Yuli
Edelstein Thursday and formally handed over the mandate. It was the first time
in Israeli history the president had been forced to ask parliament to find a
government.
"The disruptive politics must end," Rivlin said, addressing MPs from all
parties. He reminded them they have a responsibility to keep the country running
and said: "Your political fate is not more important than the fate of an old
lady in a hospital. Polls in September left Netanyahu's rightwing Likud party
and Gantz's centrist Blue and White coalition near neck-and-neck. Netanyahu was
first given four weeks to build a governing coalition with smaller parties but
failed, with Gantz admitting defeat late Wednesday after a similar period.
Despite having failed in previous attempts, both Netanyahu and Gantz could be
nominated in the next three weeks. All sides say they oppose such new elections.
Netanyahu, who has been premier since 2009 but is fighting a series of
corruption allegations, remains in power in an interim capacity.
The country's attorney general could announce a decision regarding Netanyahu's
graft cases in the coming weeks. Former army general Gantz and Netanyahu remain
the most likely candidates to take over if new elections are avoided.
The two men had been discussing forming a unity government alongside former
defense minister Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitunu party. Talks broke down
late Tuesday, with Gantz and Netanyahu arguing over who should go first if they
were to rotate the premiership. Both have said they are open to continuing
dialogue in the next three weeks. Addressing Gantz Thursday morning, Netanyahu
urged him to come to "personal, immediate negotiations, you and I, without
preconditions. "We can get over the differences. The state is important to
all of us."Gantz on Wednesday night said he was available in the next three
weeks for "direct, substantive and fast negotiations in order to establish a
government that will take Israel out from the paralysis." But Israeli media said
in reality the talks were deadlocked and the parties were already preparing
their campaigns for new elections. In the first sign of rebellion with Israel’s
ruling Likud, Netanyahu’s top party rival, Gideon Saar, called for a leadership
primary should the country go into an unprecedented third election in less than
a year, as is expected. Saar, a former aide and senior Cabinet minister under
Netanyahu, said he supported the establishment of a unity government to avert
such an election, but said he would be a better fit to make that happen than
Netanyahu, who faces the expected indictment.
Iran’s fuel price crisis shows sanctions are crippling its
economy
John Benny, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 20 November 2019
Iran's latest decision to hike fuel prices by nearly 50 percent is a desperate
attempt to lower domestic consumption and free up more gasoline for exports,
industry sources told Al Arabiya English, as the country faces pressures from US
sanctions and its failing proxies across the Middle East.
“We believe the new pricing policy is aimed at controlling sky-rocketing local
consumption in Iran, thus, to increase fuel smuggling to neighboring countries
when the government is suffering from low oil revenues,” FGE Energy said in a
note. Iran once had a lucrative crude oil industry and was a large gasoline
exporter due to the development of its Persian Gulf Star refinery in the port
city of Bandar Abbas. But now, the country cannot formally export oil
internationally without the recipient falling foul of US sanctions. Instead,
amid a faltering economy and protests in Iraq and Lebanon undermining Tehran’s
regional influence, Iran has been rebranding its fuel oil and gasoline shipments
and selling them to middlemen, who then transfer it to end users. Fuel oil is
“rebranded and re-documented as Iraqi-sourced,” said Iman Nasseri, an analyst at
London-based energy consultancy FGE Energy. Gasoline is likewise rebranded as
Omani-sourced, “or other sources where they can get the documents issued for
those cargoes.” “It’s not known where it goes,” Nasseri added. In defiance of US
sanctions, Iran will export about 10,000 to 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of
gasoline surplus to neighboring countries in the next couple of years, according
to FGE. On November 15, the country hiked fuel prices across petrol stations and
pumps, claiming that it would use the money to help citizens in need of cash
handouts. But, on Wednesday, protests continued for the fifth straight day
despite government efforts to quell popular unrest. Because of Iran’s fuel price
increase, FGE expects the country’s gasoline demand growth rate to flatten in
2020, compared to a 9 percent growth in the first ten months of 2019.
Funding proxy wars
Iran’s drive to export oil, no matter the cost, is also linked to its support
for regional proxy organizations. Tehran has been blamed for years of providing
financial and tactical support to militant groups across the Middle East,
including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, the Houthi militia in
Yemen, and a network of foreign fighters in Syria. According to Cyril
Widdershoven, director at Dutch consultancy Verocy, higher exports of gasoline
may be required for Iran to “supply its support groups or proxies
elsewhere.”Iran’s regional proxy network has been a target of protesters’ anger
during the ongoing demonstrations. Protestors have chanted “Death to the
dictator,” a sign of rising anger against Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
and “No Gaza. No Lebanon, I give my life for Iran,” in reference to Tehran’s
support for the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon,
suggesting protesters believe that the billions of dollars spent to keep the
regime’s proxies afloat could instead be used towards fixing the economic
situation at home. Iran’s unemployment rate stood at 12.1 percent as of April to
June 2018, and about 10 million to 20 million people reportedly live below the
poverty line. “The [latest] gasoline riots are only a sign that there is a
movement growing and willing to challenge the current internal power structures
... It also shows that US sanctions, whatever people are stating, are biting
really at present,” Widdershoven added.
Economic collapse
At the center of Iran’s current economic crisis is its battered oil industry –
representing nearly 15 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) –
which has faced US sanctions since President Donald Trump withdrew the country
from Tehran’s nuclear agreement with world powers.
Since the sanctions have come into place, Iran’s oil output has fallen every
month as exports dried up. In October, the country produced 2.15 million bpd,
down from 3.33 million bpd, a year earlier. “The rise in petrol prices is the
direct consequence of the fall in Iranian production and crude oil exports due
to US sanctions,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga told Al Arabiya
English. Iran is reportedly exporting about 500,000 bpd of crude oil,
significantly down from its pre-sanctions level of 2.5 million bpd. This is a
loss of about $120 million per day, which “is a serious loss of petrodollars and
somehow it had to be, at least partially, compensated,” Varga added. Amid
dwindling oil exports, Iran last year spent $69 billion on its generous fossil
fuel subsidies program – more than any other country in the world. The country’s
economy is expected to contract 10 percent in the financial year 2019-2020 from
its size two years earlier, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
For Iran to balance its budget in 2020, an oil price of nearly $195 a barrel
would be required, one of the highest in the world, the fund said.
Anti-government protesters block Iraqi ports, threaten oil
exports
Reem Abdellatif, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 19 November 2019
Protests in southern Iraq are crippling some of the country’s main ports and
oilfields, threatening oil exports, particularly to India, industry sources said
on Tuesday. As India’s top supplier of crude oil, Iraq shipped 33.3 million
barrels per month to the Asian country in October – topping Saudi Arabia’s
exports to India for the seventh consecutive month. But, protests in the
southern province of Basra, one of the flashpoints in the largest wave of
anti-government protests in decades, could hinder the flow of goods and oil
exports. Salam al-Basrawi, 39, an employee of the Iraqi oil ministry in al-Zubair,
South of Basra, said protestors were not allowing any employees to access the
port of Umm Qasr, which typically ships 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per month of
Qayyarah crude grade to India. “The Umm Qasr port is not functional though in
Basra, which is the only way for marine trade. It’s been blocked by protestors
and even employees are not allowed to go there as protestors set any car –
including employees cars – alight should they want to go to the work in the
port,” he told Al Arabiya English. Port officials at the neighboring Khor al-Zubair
port on Tuesday told Reuters that demonstrators are preventing trucks from
entering al-Zubair port, used to import and export refined oil products,
construction materials and electrical commodities. In October, oil exports of
the Qayyarah crude grade, which originate from northern Iraq and are shipped
through the southern Umm Qasr port, slowed down to about 600,000 barrels per
month, and are expected to decline further, according to Ranjith Raja, Lead
Analyst – Shipping and Oil Research for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at
Refinitiv. “Going forward, particularly in December, this is where we would
expect the most impact,” said Raja.
The port is also used to transport shipments of refined products, such as gasoil
and some naphtha products, Raja told Al Arabiya English.
Elsewhere, crude oil exports from the Basra oilfield – which are primarily
shipped globally to China, Japan, and countries across the Mediterranean – have
so far remained relatively constant, he added. Meanwhile, protesters also
blocked roads to prevent oil workers from entering al-Zubair oilfield, close to
the port for a second day on Tuesday. One employee told Al Arabiya English that
he was not able to get to work, describing a scene of smoke and burning tires.
“I couldn’t reach my work place because the road was blocked with flaming tires
in the middle by furious protestors,” the employee said.
Al-Zubair oilfield is currently operated by a consortium led by Italy’s
state-owned oil company Eni. With a daily output of 400,000 barrels of oil, it
is one of the largest oil fields in the world. Iraq’s oil exports stood at 3.576
million (bpd) in September, with approximately 96 percent shipped from Basra
terminals.
In Iraq, which is the OPEC’s largest producer behind Saudi Arabia, oil accounts
for about 90 percent of the government revenue. Much of the wealth generated
from the exports goes into the country’s bloated public sector. Worsening
economic conditions and state corruption have triggered waves of protests in
Baghdad and Iraq’s southern provinces since the start of October, in which about
315 people have died.
-Alaa Mahsoob Mohammed contributed to this article
Greek Minister: Turkey Needs to End 'Blackmail' for Migrant
Aid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
Greece's migration minister said that Turkey needs to stop "blackmail" if it
wants more EU aid, saying its loaded language had prompted a spike in movement
toward Greek shores. Speaking to AFP on a visit to Washington, Giorgos
Koumoutsakos voiced alarm over threats by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
other Turkish officials to "open the gates" to Europe if it does not provide
more support. When Turkey "keeps repeating that we're going to open the
floodgates, what they (migrants) do is they move closer to the floodgates
waiting for them to open," said Koumoutsakos, citing a 240 percent increase in
migrant arrivals on Greek shores since May. Koumoutsakos said that Greece
nonetheless wanted the European Union to "positively consider" Turkey's request
for assistance beyond the six billion euros ($6.6 billion) committed in 2016 to
stop migrants. "But the fact that Turkey asked for this money by blackmail or
threats does not create the necessary political climate for the Europeans to
decide to give the money," he said. "Europe cannot act under threats or
blackmail. As Europeans should understand the situation that the Turks are faced
with, Ankara should on its part realize that this is not the way to deal with
Europe," he said.
Conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who took power in July
elections, has pledged a tougher approach on migration than the previous leftist
government, which allowed refugees from Syria and other troubled countries to
land.Greece on Wednesday said it would overhaul its overcrowded camps on its
islands facing Turkey, with asylum-seekers now to be locked up until they are
either granted refugee status or rejected and sent back to Turkey. Some 3.6
million Syrian refugees are living in Turkey after a brutal civil war engulfed
their country, and Greece is the key transit point into the European Union.
Greece's tightening controls have been criticized by human rights groups as
inhumane. Koumoutsakos defended the steps, saying that ordinary Greeks on
islands had migration fatigue and that, in contrast with the previous government
of Alexis Tsipras, "we are looking not only at the humanitarian aspect, but the
security aspect."Koumoutsakos said he discussed Greece's stance with US
lawmakers as well as Chad Wolf, the acting secretary of homeland security.
Immigration is a signature issue for President Donald Trump, who has vowed to
build a wall on the Mexican border and whose administration has tried to
discourage the arrival of migrants from violence-ravaged Central America by
separating parents from their children. Koumoutsakos said that Greece was
seeking "enhanced cooperation" with the United States, including on border
control, but that the two countries' situations were dissimilar. Turkey --
angered by criticism of its assault on Kurdish fighters in Syria -- has also
threatened to send fighters from ISIS captured in Syria back to their European
countries of origin even if their governments do not want them.Interior Minister
Suleyman Soylu has said that Turkey cannot be "a hotel" for the extremists.
Egypt: ISIS Claims Attack in Sinai That Killed Officer
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
ISIS terrorist group has claimed an attack this week in Egypt’s restive Sinai
Peninsula which left an office dead and wounded three others. The group released
a statement late on Wednesday through a militant-linked website saying the group
had targeted an armored vehicle carrying Egyptian forces with a roadside bombing
the previous day in the town of Sheikh Zuweid. Egyptian officials had said a
captain was killed and four members of the security forces were wounded in the
roadside bombing, the Associated Press reported. Egypt has been battling an
extremist insurgency in Sinai, led by the regional ISIS affiliate, that
intensified following the ousting of former president Mohammed Morsi in 2013,
who belongs to the “banned” Muslim Brotherhood organization. The militants have
carried out scores of attacks, mainly targeting security forces and minority
Christians.
Arab League’s Zaki: Turkish, Iranian Meddling Crossed Red
Lines
Cairo - Sawsan Abu Husain/Thursday, 21 November, 2019
Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki described the
situation in the Arab world as very delicate and said it requires careful
dealing so as not to have external interventions make matters worse. At the same
time, Zaki stressed it was too early to judge the results of protests in Iran
and their impact on Lebanon and Iraq. In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat Zaki
also said that Turkish and Iranian interventions in the affairs of Arab
countries have crossed red lines, urging inter-Arab reconciliation. Zaki
defended the performance of the Arab League against the heated criticism it is
currently facing.
Speaking about external interference by regional states, such as Iran and
Turkey, Zaki said: “The issue of meddling is particularly clear in the case of
Iran, because it is evident in the way it has dealt with its Arab neighbors for
years: exporting its revolution through creating, arming and using militias in
times of crisis or even peace. This has made the atmosphere tense in several
countries.” As for Turkish intervention in the affairs of Arab states, Zaki
said: “We have recently spotted a new and alarming course in Turkey’s behavior
and it calls for an Arab stance.”“What these two countries (Iran and Turkey) are
doing has crossed all red lines,” he highlighted. When asked about Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent criticism of the Arab League, Zaki said:
“The Arab League criticized the Turkish actions, but if the Turkish regime does
not want to hear criticism of its practices, that’s up to it; because the Arab
League will continue to make clear and explicit decisions on Turkish
interventions.”Erdogan had previously said that the Arab League is taking
contradictory blunders as decisions. On Syria, Zaki said: “The Arab League is
prepared to interfere, but the question is whether there is willingness on the
part of other parties for the League to play a role in the Syrian file.”
Iraqi Integrity Commission Issues Arrest Warrants Against
Several Officials
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 21 November,
2019
Iraq’s Integrity Commission has been active in issuing arrest warrants and
arraignments against former and current senior officials accused of corruption
in an effort to send a message to anti-government protesters on the seriousness
of the Iraqi authorities in fighting graft. After issuing a seven-year prison
sentence last week against Najiha Abdul-Amir al-Shimari, head of Iraq's Martyrs
Establishment, the Commission has sought to arrest scores of other government
officials. On Tuesday, it said Babil’s Criminal Court issued a warrant for the
arrest of Governor Karar al-Abadi. Other arrest warrants were issued against
high-ranking officials in Najaf governorate. Also, an arraignment was issued
against Nineveh MP Ahmed Al-Jubouri for misappropriating funds during his tenure
as Salaheddine governor. On Wednesday, an integrity court in Kirkuk issued an
arraignment against 13 members of the governorate council. The court said it
issued the order to summon current members of the governorate’s council based on
the provisions of Article 340 of the Iraqi Penal Code. In the Dhi Qar
governorate, Judge Mohammed Haidar Hussein issued a one-year prison sentence
against three officials based on the provisions of Article 331 of the Iraqi
Penal Code. A judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity
that the “Iraqi judiciary is part of the corruption problem and therefore, it
could not become part of the solution to reform the country.” The source added
that since 2003, the judiciary has been the advocate of corruption and later a
partner in this unethical system. “The arrests and arraignment warrants against
Iraqi officials are nothing but attempts to claim that the judiciary is serious
in its fight against corruption. However, in reality, those arrests are biased,”
he said. The Iraqi Integrity Commission is tasked with investigating cases of
corruption. Last month, Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi said the
Anti-Corruption Council would refer cases of nine former ministers and governors
for trial. Since October, Iraq has been plunged in massive anti-government
protests against a ruling elite they accuse of rampant corruption and
mismanagement.
US has world’s highest rate of children in detention: UN study
Reuters, Geneva/Tuesday, 19 November 2019
The United States has the world’s highest rate of children in detention,
including more than 100,000 in immigration-related custody that violates
international law, the author of a United Nations study said on Monday.
Worldwide more than 7 million people under age 18 are held in jails and police
custody, including 330,000 in immigration detention centers, independent expert
Manfred Nowak said. Children should only be detained as a measure of last resort
and for the shortest time possible, according to the United Nations Global Study
on Children Deprived of Liberty.“The United States is one of the countries with
the highest numbers - we still have more than 100,000 children in
migration-related detention in the (US),” Nowak told a news briefing. “Of course
separating children, as was done by the Trump administration, from their parents
and even small children at the Mexican-US border is absolutely prohibited by the
Convention on the Rights of the Child. I would call it inhuman treatment for
both the parents and the children.” There was no immediate reaction from US
authorities. Novak said US officials had not replied to his questionnaire sent
to all countries. He said the United States had ratified major international
treaties such as those guaranteeing civil and political rights and banning
torture, but was the only country not to have ratified the pact on the rights of
children. “The way they were separating infants from families only in order to
deter irregular migration from Central America to the United States to me
constitutes inhuman treatment, and that is absolutely prohibited by the two
treaties,” said Nowak, a professor of international law at the University of
Vienna. Young migrant children, whose faces can not be shown, are seen at the US
Customs and Border Protection Facility in Tucson, Arizona June 28, 2018. (AFP)
US detains an average of 60 out of every 100,000 children
The United States detains an average of 60 out of every 100,000 children in its
justice system or immigration-related custody, Nowak said, the world’s highest
rate, followed by countries such as Bolivia, Botswana and Sri Lanka.
Mexico, where many Central American migrants have been turned back at the US
border, also has high numbers, with 18,000 children in immigration-related
detention and 7,000 in prisons, he said. The US rate compared with an average of
five per 100,000 in Western Europe and 14-15 in Canada, he said. At least 29,000
children, mainly linked to ISIS fighters, are held in northern Syria and in Iraq
- with French citizens among the biggest group of foreigners, Nowak added. Even
if some of these children had been child soldiers, he said, they should be
mainly treated as victims, not perpetrators, so that they could be rehabilitated
and reintegrated in society.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on November 20-21/2019
America's Early Apologists for Islamism
Daniel Pipes/Washington Times/November 21/2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/19148/america-early-apologists-for-islam
The good, the just, and the chic of the United States enjoy filling the role of
Islam's patrons. The Establishment emphasizes several benign and simplistic
themes: There is no clash of civilizations. Terrorism is not Islamic. Islam is
compatible with American ideals. It adds to American life. Americans must learn
to appreciate Islam.
Whence sprang these views that blithely ignore the myriad problems associated
with Islam in its relations with non-Muslims, from jihad to dhimmitude (living
as second-class citizens)? Not from the remarkable 1796 U.S. document promising
"no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Musselmen
[Muslims]," for that assured neutrality, not favoritism.
In fact, this patronage dates back to July 1979 and the founding of a
now-forgotten but once-grand initiative called the "National Committee to Honor
the Fourteenth Centennial of Islam" (for short, Islamic Centennial Fourteen, or
ICF). In celebrating the turn of the Islamic century on Nov. 21, 1979, the
committee hoped to counter growing tensions with Iran's new revolutionary
government.
ICF would "foster among Americans a greater appreciation of the cultural
achievements of the Islamic civilization." It would provide information on
Islam's "art and architecture, its customs and ceremonies, its languages and
literatures, its peoples and their philosophies." It would sponsor a documentary
film titled Islam, a panel discussion on national television, a traveling
exhibition called the "Heritage of Islam," books, and a multiyear series of
talks.
A spectacular bevy of Establishmentarians agreed to join the ICF board,
including presidential relatives, former cabinet secretaries, business tycoons,
religious leaders, and a glittering array of cultural figures. The chairmen of
giant companies with major Middle Eastern interests, such as Exxon, Mobil,
Fluor, and Bechtel, sat on the committee and provided much of its funding.
The U.S. government, starting with President Carter, enthusiastically endorsed
and warmly applauded the ICF: "It is important that your Committee's programs
enjoy the support and participation of as many Americans as possible. ... I will
encourage involvement. ... You have my continued interest and support."
President Reagan hoped that "the American people will avail themselves fully of
the great experience this exhibition offers" and Vice President George H.W. Bush
opened the traveling exhibition. ICF activities benefited from federal, state,
and local funding.
A gala celebration at the National Gallery of Art on the last day of the Islamic
year 1399 (equivalent to on Nov. 20, 1979), was to kick off the public relations
campaign. But the Tehran embassy seizure on Nov. 4, undertaken in the name of
Islam, interfered, causing this inaugural event to be canceled. Yet worse, on
Nov. 21, the first day of the year 1400, mobs burned down the U.S. embassy in
Pakistan as revenge for imagined American complicity in the siege of the Great
Mosque in Mecca.
The National Gallery of Art, where the gala celebration at on Nov. 20, 1979, did
not take place.
This toxic combination sent ICF into a hibernation from which it never recovered
as ICF's executive director, William R. Crawford Jr., ruefully acknowledged "We
didn't want to step off into a hostile environment." Still, Crawford tried to
ignore difficult facts, falsely asserting that "Ayatollah Khomeini said he acted
in the name of Islam, which of course he wasn't." Such apologetics convinced
precious few and ICF's claim that Muslims and Americans share "fundamental
concepts, including nonviolence and brotherhood among all the peoples of the
world" had temporarily become untenable. The ICF faded into a much-deserved
obscurity.
But if Islamic Centennial Fourteen lost the battle, it won the war. It initiated
Establishment patterns remaining with us forty years later: Hiding problems
associated with Islamism (for example, Hillary Clinton). Insisting that
Americans are to blame for Muslim animosity toward them (President Obama's Cairo
speech). Dismissal of Islamic motives behind violence (the denial surrounding
ISIS). Creating a precedent of U.S. government promotion of Islam (such as
building mosques at the taxpayers' expense).
On this last point: to be sure, ICF legalistically avoided religion ("a greater
appreciation of the cultural achievements of the Islamic civilization") but
Islam, not Persian rugs, was always its focus. Such taxpayer funding raised
constitutional questions about the separation of church and state that still are
not yet adequately addressed.
The origins of today's Establishment efforts to ignore the stubborn facts of
Islamic imperialism and Iranian bellicosity go back exactly forty years;
Americans live in a country shaped by prejudices and interests initiated at a
time of crisis. When oh when will we escape that benighted mentality?
*Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East
Forum. © 2019 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Iran: Hard Times for Ayatollahs
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November 21/2019
It is an irony that not even the most devoted supporters of the ayatollahs can
ignore that a country such as Iran, that prides itself on being one of the
world's largest oil producers, is unable to produce enough fuel to satisfy the
needs of its own population.
These are, moreover, hard times for the ayatollahs in many other respects. Not
only are the leaders coming under pressure at home for their disastrous handling
of the economy. They are also seeing their efforts to export Iran's Islamic
revolution to other corners of the Middle East being roundly rejected, with
anti-Iran protests taking place in Iraq and Lebanon. With the Iranian economy
under such intense pressure as a result of the sanctions, however, the regime
has little room for manoeuvre, so it faces a stark choice: either radically
reform its conduct or continue to face the wrath of the Iranian people.
With the Iranian economy under such intense pressure as a result of the
sanctions, the regime has little room for manoeuvre, so it faces a stark choice:
either radically reform its conduct or continue to face the wrath of the Iranian
people. Any suggestion that the wide-ranging sanctions regime the Trump
administration has imposed against Iran was not having the desired effect has
been roundly refuted by the nationwide protests that have erupted in response to
the regime's decision to increase petrol prices. Critics of American President
Donald J. Trump's announcement that he was withdrawing the US from the Iran
nuclear deal last year and imposing a fresh round of sanctions against Tehran
have argued that the measures would fail to have the desired effect, and claimed
that the ayatollahs would be able to circumvent the sanctions by trading with
countries such as China, that remained committed to the nuclear deal.
Those arguments have now been decisively proved wrong after Iranians took to the
streets in towns and cities in their tens of thousands throughout the country in
protest at the regime's decision at the end of last week to raise the price of
petrol by 50 percent, as well as rationing the amount drivers could purchase to
60 litres a month without being obliged to pay a higher premium. It is an irony
that not even the most devoted supporters of the ayatollahs can ignore that a
country such as Iran, that prides itself on being one of the world's largest oil
producers, is unable to produce enough fuel to satisfy the needs of its own
population. While the requirement to raise fuel prices is deeply embarrassing
for the government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, however, it has not
stopped the regime from responding with its characteristic brutality to
anti-government protests.
Precise casualty figures are hard to come by, not least because the regime has
responded to the latest protests by closing down access to the internet, the
classic response one expects to see from an authoritarian state under pressure.
Unofficial reports compiled by Iranian exiles suggest that around 200 people
have been killed and around 3,000 injured after Mr Rouhani ordered Iran's
security forces to deal with the protests, which he said amounted to rioting.
"People have the right to protest," Mr Rouhani said shortly after the
anti-government protests began, "but protests are different from riots. We
should not allow insecurity in our society." Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, went even further, claiming the protests were nothing more than
"sabotage and arson" being carried out by "hooligans, not our people. The
counter-revolution and Iran's enemies have always supported sabotage and
breaches of security and continue to do so."
As often happens when the Iranian regime finds itself under pressure, such as
the Green Revolution in 2009, when there were mass protests against the result
of the presidential election, the ayatollahs resort to the brute force of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer
militia, to crush dissent. The regime employed similar measures during the Green
Revolution, when thousands of Iranian protesters, who were dismayed at the
prospect of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad serving another
four-year term of office, staged the largest anti-government protests Iran had
witnessed since the 1979 Islamic revolution. It is too early to say yet whether
the current wave of protests will gather the same momentum, especially as the
regime has become more adept at crushing anti-government opposition.
Regular outbursts of dissent have been reported throughout Tehran since the end
of last year, mainly in response to the crippling effect the US sanctions regime
is having on the economy, where inflation is running at around 40 percent, and
the collapse in the value of the rial, the national currency, has caused
dramatic rises in the cost of basic staples, with red meat and poultry rising by
57%, milk, cheese and eggs by 37%, and vegetables by 47%. These are, moreover,
hard times for the ayatollahs in many other respects. Not only are the leaders
coming under pressure at home for their disastrous handling of the economy. They
are also seeing their efforts to export Iran's Islamic revolution to other
corners of the Middle East being roundly rejected, with anti-Iran protests
taking place in Iraq and Lebanon. Indeed, fears that the protests currently
taking place in Iran might spiral out of control, as they have done recently in
both Iran and Lebanon, has prompted some lawmakers in the Iranian parliament, or
Majlis, to call for the increase in petrol prices to be reversed.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a
Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Thanks to Trump, the Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/November 21/2019
One of the reasons behind IMF's gloomy picture of Iran's economy is linked to
the Trump administration's decision not to extend its waiver for Iran's eight
biggest oil buyers; China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South
Korea.
Iran's national currency, the rial, also continues to lose value: it dropped to
historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled approximately 35,000 rials in
November 2017, now buys you nearly 110,000 rials.
On November 12, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged for the first time
that "Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979 Islamic
revolution" and that "the country's situation is not normal." (Image source:
Tasnim News/CC by 4.0)
The critics of President Trump's Iran policy have been proven wrong: the US
sanctions are imposing significant pressure on the ruling mullahs of Iran and
the ability to fund their terror groups.
Before the US Department of Treasury leveled secondary sanctions against Iran's
oil and gas sectors, Tehran was exporting over two million barrel a day of oil.
Currently, Tehran's oil export has gone down to less than 200,000 barrel a day,
which represents a decline of roughly 90% in Iran's oil exports.
Iran has the second-largest natural gas reserves and the fourth-largest proven
crude oil reserves in the world, and the sale of these resources account for
more than 80 percent of its export revenues. The Islamic Republic therefore
historically depends heavily on oil revenues to fund its military adventurism in
the region and sponsor militias and terror groups. Iran's presented budget in
2019 was nearly $41 billion, while the regime was expecting to generate
approximately $21 billion of it from oil revenues. This means that approximately
half of Iran's government revenue comes from exporting oil to other nations.
Even though Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasts about the
country's self-sufficient economy, several of Iran's leaders recently admitted
the dire economic situation that the government is facing. Speaking in the city
of Kerman on November 12, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged for the
first time that "Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979
Islamic revolution" and that "the country's situation is not normal."
Rouhani also complained: "Although we have some other incomes, the only revenue
that can keep the country going is the oil money. We have never had so many
problems in selling oil. We never had so many problems in keeping our oil tanker
fleet sailing.... How can we run the affairs of the country when we have
problems with selling our oil?"
Thanks to the US policy of "maximum pressure," the Islamic Republic's overall
economy has taken a major beating as well. Lately, the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) has again adjusted its forecast for Iran's economy and pointed out
that Iran's economy is expected to shrink by 9.5% rather than 6% by the end of
2019. One of the reasons behind IMF's gloomy picture of Iran's economy is linked
to the Trump administration's decision not to extend its waiver for Iran's eight
biggest oil buyers; China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South
Korea. Instead of showing economic growth in 2019, Iran's economy would be 90%
of its size by the end of 2019 in comparison to two years ago, based on a recent
report from the World Bank.
Iran's national currency, the rial, also continues to lose value: it dropped to
historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled approximately 35,000 rials in
November 2017, now buys you nearly 110,000 rials.
In addition, the Islamic Republic appears to be scrambling to compensate for the
loss of revenues it is encountering. A few days ago, for example, Iran's leaders
tripled the price of gasoline. It appears a sign of desperation to generate
revenues in order to fund their military adventurism in the region and support
their proxies and terror groups. This increase immediately led people to rise up
against the government. In the last few days, several Iranian cities have become
the scenes of widespread protests and demonstrations. The protests first erupted
in Ahvaz and then spread to many other cities in the Khuzestan province as well
as in the capital Tehran, and Kermanshah, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karadj, Shiraz, Yazd,
Boushehr, Sari, Khorramshahr, Andimeshk, Dezful, Behbahan and Mahshahr.
Tehran's diminishing resources have also caused Iranian leaders to cut funds to
the Palestinian terror group Hamas and the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah.
Hamas was forced to introduce "austerity plans" while Hassan Nasrallah, the
leader of Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, has also called on his group's fundraising
arm "to provide the opportunity for jihad with money and also to help with this
ongoing battle."
To the likely dismay of Washington's critics, President Trump's Iran policy has
been heading in the right direction. By escalating economic sanctions, the
ruling mullahs and their proxies are going bankrupt. Other nations now need to
join the US by also adopting a "maximum pressure" policy -- even if they would
rather continue to do business with Iran and undermine President Trump's
administration -- to them, a "twofer". If Iran succeeds in developing its
nuclear weapons breakout capability, in the end it will be used to blackmail
precisely them.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
With the Iranian economy under such intense pressure as a result of the
sanctions, however, the regime has little room for manoeuvre, so it faces a
stark choice: either radically reform its conduct or continue to face the wrath
of the Iranian people.
The Fall of The Alliance of Evil Against Saudi Arabia
Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 21/2019
No one was surprised with the publishing of intelligence documents that revealed
Iranian interference in Iraq. In fact, those documents have confirmed what was
already known. No one was shocked by the continued exceptional relations between
the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian regime. The history of the brotherhood
shows its intimate relation with Tehran since Ayatollah Khomeini came to power
in 1979.
As for the documents published by The Intercept and The New York Times about a
brotherhood-Iranian conspiracy hosted by Turkey against Saudi Arabia, they
constitute, in my opinion, one of the most important revelations in 2019; not
only because the three sides are seeking enmity with Saudi Arabia, according to
evidence and proof, but because the size of collective targeting against the
Kingdom is organized and planned for many years. The three sides have held
secret summits and intelligence conspiracies, in which they agreed that Saudi
Arabia was their “common enemy”, as the documents showed.
What is remarkable at the tripartite summit of evil is not the
Iranian-Brotherhood’s hostility against the Kingdom and targeting its security
and stability. This is a proven history and these documents will only add other
facts. What is striking is Turkey’s hosting of this coalition of evil, by
planning to strike the Saudi national security, supporting the Houthis in Yemen
and backing the Iranian project there.
The Turkish hypocrisy has reached unprecedented levels; the conspiracy came at a
time when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, shortly after the launch of the
Decisive Storm operations, announced his country’s support to curbing the
expansion of the Houthis, while he was planning otherwise.
Ankara continued with its deception policy. Its president said that his country
considered the strategy of King Salman a “safety valve for the region”, but in
fact, he was adopting a “dissimilation” policy that was also seen in Iran and
with the Muslim Brotherhood.
The best thing about the disclosure of the documents of the tripartite
conspiracy is that it proved that the Kingdom’s stance against revolutionary
Iran, or its designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, was
completely correct. On the other hand, the worst thing about it is that Turkey
was lying and conspiring against the Kingdom. This was evident in several
positions taken by Ankara, including targeting the Kingdom openly,
systematically and aggressively since the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and
Turkey’s invasion of Syrian territory in flagrant violation of international
conventions. These two positions are enough to show the reality of Turkish
politics in the region.
Then came the great disaster of conspiring with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood
against the Kingdom, within episodes of very poor production, ugly output, but
of great usefulness.
The facts on the ground alone can reveal the outcome of the Iranian-Turkish-
Brotherhood conspiracy against Saudi Arabia. The Brotherhood remained in their
underground positions, and Iran is facing popular anger in Iraq and Lebanon,
which is now spreading to its own territory in the worst violent protests since
the Green Revolution.
As for Turkey, it has been abandoned by everyone, and it is suffering
economically, politically and militarily; it has become a state competing with
itself in provoking the world and being the most detested.
Meanwhile, the state they have conspired against and held black summits to
target was not affected by their actions at all. No wonder that the alliance of
evil fell without the Kingdom even bothering to respond to it.
The Other Genocide of Christians: On Turks, Kurds, and
Assyrians
Raymond Ibrahim/November 21/2019
One of the most refreshing aspects of Resolution 296—which acknowledges the
Armenian Genocide, and which the House recently voted overwhelmingly for—is that
it also recognizes those other peoples who experienced a genocide under the
Ottoman Turks. The opening sentence of Resolution 296 acknowledges “the campaign
of genocide against Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Syriacs, Arameans,
Maronites, and other Christians.”
And that last word—Christians—is key to understanding this tragic chapter of
history: Christianity is what all those otherwise diverse peoples had in common,
and therefore it—not nationality, ethnicity, or grievances—was the ultimate
determining factor concerning who the Turks would and would not “purge.”
The genocide is often conflated with the Armenians because many more of them
than other ethnicities were killed—causing them to be the face of the genocide.
According to generally accepted figures, the Turks exterminated 1.5 million
Armenians, 750,000 Greeks, and 300,000 Assyrians.
As for the latter peoples (the word “Assyrian” also encompasses Chaldeans,
Syriacs, and Arameans) half of their population of 600,000 was slaughtered in
the genocide. In other words, relative to their numbers, they lost more than any
other Christian group, including the Armenians.
Year of the Sword: The Assyrian Christian Genocide (published 2016) underscores
that 1) the Assyrians were systematically massacred, and that 2) the ultimate
reason for their—and therefore the Armenians’ and Greeks’—genocide was their
Christian identity.
The book’s author, Joseph Yacoub, an emeritus professor at the Catholic
University of Lyon, offers copious contemporary documentation recounting
countless atrocities against the Assyrians—massacres, rapes, death marches,
sadistic eye-gouging, and the desecration and destruction of hundreds of
churches.
While acknowledging that the Assyrians were “annihilated by the murderous
madness of Ottoman power, driven by a hideous form of unbridled nationalism,”
Yacoub also affirms that the “policy of ethnic cleansing was stirred up by
pan-Islamism and religious fanaticism. Christians were considered infidels (kafir).
The call to Jihad, decreed on 29 November 1914 and instigated and orchestrated
for political ends, was part of the plan” to “combine and sweep over the lands
of Christians and to exterminate them.” Several key documents, including one
from 1920, confirm that there was “an Ottoman plan to exterminate Turkey’s
Christians.”
The role played by other minorities under Ottoman rule—that is, Muslim
minorities—further underscores that religion was the dividing line: enter that
otherwise little known people that recently made international headlines as
“betrayed” freedom-fighters—the Kurds.
Although there has never been any love lost between Turks and Kurds, once
Christians were thrown into the mix, the two hitherto quarreling Muslim peoples
temporarily set their longstanding differences aside: “Holy war [jihad] was
proclaimed in Kurdistan and Kurdish tribes responded enthusiastically under the
planned and concerted direction of the Turkish authorities,” writes Yacoub.
Thus, the Kurds “were accomplices in the massacres, and participated in looting
for ideological reasons (the Christians were infidels).”
Yacoub recounts many “atrocities carried out by Turks and Kurds from town to
town and from village to village without exception.” In one instance, Turks,
Kurds, and other “Sunnis,” selected “eighteen of the most beautiful young girls”
and hauled them into a local church, “where they were stripped naked and
violated in turn on top of the Holy Gospel.” An eyewitness recalled that the
“outrages” committed against “even children” were “so horrible that one recoils;
it makes the flesh creep.”
Ample precedents presaged this Christian genocide of the early twentieth
century. As just one example, between 1843 and 1847, the Kurds “unleashed
carnage” among the Assyrians of Van. More than 10,000 men were massacred, while
“thousands of women and girls” were raped, mutilated, “and forcibly converted to
Islam.”
Nor has history ceased. Those Christians most recently to undergo a genocide—the
Assyrians who found themselves under the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS)—are “themselves children of the Ottoman Empire’s victims,” notes Yacoub.
Today, Assyrian Christians continue to be victimized by both NATO-ally Turkey
and freedom-fighting Kurds.
In short, not only is it important to remember that peoples other than Armenians
were also victims of the genocide, but that peoples other than Turks were also
responsible. The perpetrators were all Muslim, and the victims were all
Christian—a dichotomy that remains alive and well in the world today.
Raymond Ibrahim, author of Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between
Islam and the West, is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, a
Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute.
Iran’s digital blackout was carefully prepared: Experts
Lenah Hassaballah/Al Arabiya/November 21/2019
Since protests erupted in Iran on Friday, the Iranian government has imposed a
near-total Internet shutdown to quell the unrest and silence protesters.
Shutting off the Internet during protests is not a new tactic, but the speed and
scope of the shutdown has prompted the question: How does a government switch
off the Internet for over 80 million people?
Internet outages first began in the city of Mashhad on Friday evening, gradually
increasing in extent and severity. Iran’s largest mobile network operators
including MCI, Rightel and IranCell subsequently fell offline on Saturday
evening amid worsening Internet shutdowns as protests intensified.
By Wednesday, Iran’s Internet had been under a near-total shutdown for more than
75 hours, and national connectivity to the outside world had fallen to four
percent as some of the last remaining networks are being cut off, according to
Internet tracking company NetBlocks.
Web research firm Oracle Internet Intelligence described the blackout as “the
largest Internet shutdown ever observed in Iran,” despite the country being no
stranger to government-led shutdowns.
“Unlike previous efforts at censorship and bandwidth throttling, the Internet of
Iran is presently experiencing a multi-day wholesale disconnection for much of
its population – arguably the largest such event ever for Iran,” Doug Madory,
director of Internet analysis at Oracle, wrote in a blog post.
Preparation
According to online watchdogs and Internet tracking companies, it took the
Iranian government about 24 hours to force nearly the entire country into a
digital blackout. Lukasz Olejnik, an independent security and privacy adviser,
said such a move took a lot of preparation.
“This preparatory work is complex and takes a lot of time. Gaining such a
capability is a process - it is not something that a country can obtain
overnight. Of course, once the capability is achieved, the actual shutdown may
take hours to days,” said Olejnik, who is a research associate at the Center for
Technology and Global Affairs at Oxford University.
“What is important is that to construct the capability, countries first need to
devote significant resources to the task. This is why monitoring novel
technology regulation is relevant,” he added.
According to Internet Intelligence, Internet outages are tracked by running
millions of traceroutes per day from hundreds of global measurement servers.
Instances where the number of observed responsive traceroutes drops below a
certain baseline are then highlighted.
Iran’s Internet has been shut down by a variety of different actions, not one
single act, said Oracle’s Madory. Some networks have withdrawn their routes
while others are still announcing their routes but blocking traffic. In any
case, a drop would suggest a connectivity impairment either due to a technical
failure or a deliberate shutdown, usually by governments.
Olejnik said that if the government wanted to deliberately shutdown the
Internet, it would need to explicitly request Internet service providers (ISPs)
to do so. “You need to ask yourself a question: When faced with a scary
‘national security emergency’ order, do you think ISPs would have much choice?”
Olejnik noted.
Government-controlled Internet
On Tuesday, the Iranian government admitted to shutting down the Internet.
“The Internet will come back gradually in some provinces where there are
assurances the Internet will not be abused,” government spokesman Ali Rabei
said, quoted by semi-official news agency ISNA.
“We understand that people have faced difficulties... but the bigger concern
under the current circumstances is maintaining the country’s peace and
stability,” he added.
When the protests first started, activists, journalists and civilians took to
social media to share videos of large gatherings across the country, including
the violence they were subjected to by Iranian security forces who used live
ammunition, tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrations.
According to opposition broadcaster Radio Farda, the death toll since protests
began is at least 138, while other activists put the number at 200.
Meanwhile, as the whole country has seemingly been forced offline, Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei tweeted on Sunday in support of the government’s decision to
increase fuel prices.
Khamenei’s online presence caused outrage amongst Iranians who have been unable
to get in touch with their friends and family.
Still, in a country like Iran, the Internet can be cut off for some, and not
others. According to a 2012 report by the founder of global Internet
intelligence company Renesys, Iran is at “significant risk” in terms of
government control of the Internet as its international connectivity runs
through only two entities.
According to Madory, Iran’s Internet has grown more complex over the past
decade. It has more routes, more domestic players exchanging traffic, and more
hosted websites.
He added that the Telecommunication Company of Iran, the state telecom company,
is now present at one of the world’s largest Internet exchange points, hosts one
of the Internet’s root servers, and leads the region in IPv6 deployment. IPv6 is
the latest version of the Internet Protocol, which identifies devices across the
Internet so they can be located.
“But the continued presence of TIC and IPM serving as bottlenecks between Iran
and the global Internet remains as the defining characteristic of Iranian
Internet topology. These chokepoints suggest the Iranian government has
architected, and will likely retain, the ability to control (and in recent days
block) Internet access of its people,” Madory wrote.
Meanwhile, in a statement issued Sunday, the Trump administration condemned “the
lethal force and severe communications restrictions used against demonstrators.”
Richard Grenell, the US Ambassador to Germany, tweeted on Sunday that the US had
the “technical ability to turn the Internet on for the people of Iran”. Olejnik
said: “I am not aware of technical capabilities allowing external countries to
‘turn on’ Internet access in another country… Hypothetically, you could imagine
potentially offering Internet access via a constellation of satellites but it is
very unclear if today’s constellations would handle traffic of an entire
country. Not to mention that citizens would need additional equipment to take
advantage of connection in such a way.”
The full extent of the protests remained unclear to Iranians and the wider world
on Wednesday largely as a result of the Internet restrictions.
Khamenei’s Domestic and Foreign Response Options to the Protests
Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/November 21/2019
The Supreme Leader faces tough choices about who to blame for the protests, and
what impact they should have on policy toward the United States.
As Tehran attempts to contain ongoing demonstrations sparked by its November 15
decision to raise gasoline prices, many of its options pose dilemmas for the
regime and run the risk of backfiring. On the tactical side, for instance,
shutting down the Internet makes it more difficult for protestors to organize,
but also leaves people with more time on their hands, likely spurring at least
some of them to go out into the street—a phenomenon seen in Egypt in 2011, when
demonstrations grew significantly after Internet restrictions were imposed. This
PolicyWatch focuses on two other sets of choices that have come before Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei and other hardliners since the unrest began: who to blame
for the protests, and which options to pursue toward the United States.
WHO TO BLAME?
In order to spin the protests in his favor and safeguard the regime’s interests,
Khamenei has three main choices for where to lay blame. Hardliners have already
begun aiming at these targets, though each option carries political risks:
The United States and other outside powers. Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Soleimani,
commander of Iran’s Basij militia forces, has described the protests as
“America’s plot.” This fits with Khamenei’s longstanding preoccupations about
supposed U.S. sponsorship of color revolutions abroad. For example, the Supreme
Leader has previously criticized demonstrations in Venezuela, Hong Kong, Iraq,
and Lebanon, claiming that protestors there are doing Washington’s bidding.
The risk of pursuing this line of reasoning is that it suggests Iranians are
susceptible to being misled by Washington. Although Khamenei’s followers have
long argued this is the case in other contexts—such as warning the public about
interacting with Americans or other foreigners—doing so now could anger the many
Iranians who are furious about the price increases and see protests as a
legitimate response. The regime can ill afford to stoke even broader public
cynicism and distaste toward its revolutionary rhetoric.
Delegitimized opposition groups. This is the target Khamenei took aim at in his
November 17 speech, stating, “All malicious centers in the world, which work
against us, have encouraged these actions. These centers, ranging from the
sinister and malicious Pahlavi household to the evil and criminal monafeqeen
cult [i.e., the Mujahedin-e Khalq, or MEK], are constantly encouraging such
actions in social networks.” This statement was remarkable because Khamenei’s
camp had previously dismissed these groups for years and argued that they are
utterly without influence. As a result of the speech, the MEK can now crow about
how it is a factor in Iranian politics—a claim few analysts would accept.
Indeed, Khamenei may be counting on his perception that the group is not widely
supported at home or abroad as a way of delegitimizing the protests.
The Rouhani government. Judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi, often described as a
leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, has criticized President Hassan Rouhani’s
camp for not adequately explaining the case for increasing fuel prices. “One of
the prerequisites for this project,” he stated recently, “is the persuasion of
public opinion and elite consensus...There is an urgent need today for the
media, economists, ministries, and informed public officials to explain the
policies to the people.” Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a member of the Majlis
leadership board, added, “The way this policy was implemented was not correct,
and the matter should have been clarified for the public beforehand.”
In fact, the possibility of fuel rationing has been widely discussed at least
since August, when the government mandated the use of a “gasoline smart card.”
At the time, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh noted on state television that no one
would take the requirement seriously unless rationing was introduced.
Furthermore, if the government acknowledges that the ground was not properly
prepared, the public’s most likely rejoinder would be, “Okay, then rescind the
increases and let’s discuss them.” Such reversals are a frequent practice in
countries that experience these kinds of protests. Yet Khamenei has already put
his personal prestige behind the price increases by backing them publicly, so he
would be loath to admit he was wrong.
Tehran’s most likely path is to blame all three of these camps. In practice,
this probably means different regime figures offering various takes on how much
blame to assign to each one.
POLICY OPTIONS TOWARD THE UNITED STATES
Regarding potential actions—or inaction—toward U.S. interests, the protests
could steer Tehran toward one of three paths:
After suppressing the protests, agree to talks. This was the regime’s approach
after the mass unrest that followed the rigged presidential election of 2009.
While those protests were still active, the Ahmadinejad government agreed to
send 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium abroad, where Russia and France
would fabricate it into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. The deal had been
worked out in great detail, in part to meet the U.S. and allied interest of
lengthening the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon were it so
minded. Although Khamenei later rejected the agreement—presumably from some
combination of general suspicions about the United States and greater confidence
as the protests faded away—the general principle remains in force today, namely,
that Iran does not give in to pressure, it gives in to great pressure.
Slap back harder. If Iran decides to resume its recent string of regional
military provocations, it may do so as a way of changing the conversation from
domestic problems to foreign policy. To the extent that Khamenei sees the United
States as responsible for the demonstrations, however, he may also feel the need
to show Washington that it will pay a price for stirring up trouble in Iran. On
November 20, Kayhan newspaper’s editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari—a close
advisor to Khamenei who often expresses opinions that are even more hardline
than the Supreme Leader’s—wrote that Iran had a legitimate right to retaliate
against the United States, Israel, France, and Saudi Arabia for what he saw as
their stirring up the protests: “The enemies have lived in a glass house, and
their sensitive and strategic military and economy centers are easily
accessible. It is possible to bring them to their knees through imposing heavy
financial and military damage.”
Since as early as May, Khamenei and Rouhani have both emphasized the need to
gain leverage against the United States. This imperative was apparently the
reason behind this summer’s attacks on foreign ships in the Persian Gulf and
major oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Those attacks were so well executed that
regional powers and the United States gained a newfound respect for Iran’s
capabilities. If Tehran orders further attacks, however, they would be measured
against this new, higher standard, raising a dilemma for the regime: if new
attacks are not as successful as previous ones, Iran would be seen as less of a
threat. For the time being, then, Tehran may decide to keep trumpeting its
capabilities in public without actually using them.
Wait it out. Various domestic factors may convince the regime that it has enough
time to ride out the unrest without taking drastic action at home or abroad. The
economy is in bad shape but seems to have bottomed out, with GDP no longer
falling. More important, job creation is remarkably robust, and unemployment—a
major driver of discontent—is on its way down. Addressing unemployment is not as
difficult as it used to be because Iran’s “baby bust” is the cohort currently
entering the labor force. That is, the number of citizens turning age twenty
this year is around half the figure seen during the mass protests of 2009, so
even modest job creation could make a big dent in the number of disaffected
young people taking to the streets.
Foreign factors might convince the regime to stand pat as well. For instance,
Khamenei may believe that President Trump and his “maximum pressure” policy will
no longer be in place after next year’s U.S. election.
Khamenei’s track record strongly suggests his preference is to slap back. Yet on
numerous occasions he has instead chosen to be cautious when persuaded that bold
action could bring a firm response.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WASHINGTON
U.S. policymakers should be ready for any of these eventualities. This means
adopting a dual approach of heightened vigilance against potential attacks and
detailed planning for diplomatic initiatives.
To be sure, resuming talks on nuclear issues or other matters would have many
pitfalls. Iran’s practice has been to treat any past concession that the United
States or other parties mention publicly as carved in stone—in other words, it
insists that such concessions constitute the starting point for all further
talks, without Iran making any quid pro quo. For example, the Iranian
interpretation of the letter that French president Emmanuel Macron urged Trump
to sign in order to schedule a telephone conversation with Rouhani during the UN
General Assembly is that the White House was offering to lift all of the
sanctions it had imposed. Budging Tehran from that view may be difficult.
Also well worth debating is how U.S. officials should characterize any expressed
Iranian willingness to talk. The Trump administration’s likely instinct would be
to paint such outreach as vindication of its maximum pressure policy. Yet this
reaction could complicate efforts to forge a broad international consensus in
talks about a revised nuclear agreement, since other powers may be reluctant to
characterize “maximum pressure” as a success. Consensus matters because the best
way to get Iran to accept terms it dislikes is to show it that international and
regional powers have taken a united stance. Even if talks are limited to
bilateral discussions between the United States and Iran, the leverage created
by international consensus is a powerful argument for Washington to consult
widely with other governments and take their views into account.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at
The Washington Institute.
West must step in to restore Iranians’ internet access
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 21/2019
In the final days of 2017, anti-regime protests broke out all over Iran. They
were virtually unprecedented in terms of their geography, demography and speed.
Now, in the last few days, more protests have overtaken the country, with
equally jaw-dropping reach and speed.
The recurring protests could have profound implications not only for the people
of Iran, but also for the entire Arabian Gulf region. Western governments should
not risk being mere bystanders to the current demonstrations, as they were two
years ago. More than 100 people have been reportedly killedin only four days,
and protests have spread to more than 130 towns and cities.
The people of Iran are quite capable of confronting the regime’s suppressive
forces on their own. The US and Europe do not need to intervene directly or
attempt to actively shape the protest movement. However, Western governments
should recognize they have a responsibility to level the playing field in areas
that are out of reach for the opposition’s resistance units.
The protest movement is threatened by suppressive measures that are already
dramatically escalating. By Monday, three days after the current unrest erupted,
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was promising“decisive and
revolutionary action” to suppress the protests.
At the same time, Iran was said to be in the midst of the largest internet
shutdownever.
Straightforward repression is something that Iranian activists can be expected
to push back against with extraordinary resilience. This was made clear during
the previous nationwide uprising, when dozens of peaceful protesters were
killed, either by IRGC gunfire or by torturous interrogations following their
arrest. Yet the uprising continued for some time.
Unrest has effectively become the status quo in Iranian society, albeit to
varying degrees. The Tehran regime is desperate to conceal this fact so it can
go on projecting an image of strength. This is a significant part of the
rationale for internet outages and the regime’s perennial censorship. It is also
part of the reason why keeping the lines of communication open in Iran would go
a long way toward weakening the regime.
The US and Europe have the tools to provide large segments of the Iranian
population with reliable internet access. This would help them to go on
organizing their demonstrations and countering the IRGC’s efforts to shut down
all activism, while also allowing citizen journalists and the general public to
reveal the true extent of the protests.
Tehran is now effectively admitting that the truth would be deeply embarrassing
for the regime. Western powers should not underestimate how much they can
accomplish by promoting this embarrassment. The more clearly Iran’s domestic
population can see what is going on, the more inspired they will be to rise up
against the theocratic dictatorship and directly challenge its repressive
institutions. Considering how much they have already been willing to risk in
pursuit of freedom, there is no telling how much more could be achieved once
their successes are clear to everyone.
Open communication between the Iranian protesters and the international
community would also help more people to recognize exactly what those protesters
are fighting for. Both in 2017 and during the recent uprising, the regime’s
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed “enemies,” particularlythe Mojahedin-e Khalq,
acknowledging that the oppositional group plays a leading role in planning the
protests and popularizing anti-regime slogans.
Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the main oppositional group, the National
Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), previously urgedpro-democracy activists to
turn 2018 into a “year full of uprisings.” The public continued protesting
against the regime in spite of the lingering threat of violence and jail time.
Some believe that the 2018 uprising was a popular endorsement of the
opposition’s platform, which calls for establishing a democratic system of
government in the wake of the current regime’s overthrow. The NCRI’s 10-point
plan for the country’s future also callsfor separating religion from the state
and establishing equal rights for women and minorities.
Keeping the lines of communication open in Iran would go a long way toward
weakening the regime.
The current demonstrations have given rise to some slogans that advocate regime
change, including the chant of “death to the dictator.” It is vitally important
that this is heard by as many Iranians as possible — and by the entire
international community. Then everyone will be able to see that the Iranian
people and opposition groups are closer than ever to achieving their democratic
aspirations.
The US and Europe can help to make this happen by replacing the communications
resources that protesters have lost. If they decline this responsibility, they
will be doing so at a time when the mullahs’ hold on power is as tenuous as
ever.
It may take only the smallest of investments from the international community to
save hundreds of thousands of lives. And the world stands to gain a great deal
from such a move.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and
president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh