LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 19/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, "I am the Messiah!" and they will lead many astray
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 24/01-14/:"As Jesus came out of the temple and was going away, his disciples came to point out to him the buildings of the temple. Then he asked them, ‘You see all these, do you not? Truly I tell you, not one stone will be left here upon another; all will be thrown down.’When he was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately, saying, ‘Tell us, when will this be, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?’Jesus answered them, ‘Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, "I am the Messiah!" and they will lead many astray. And you will hear of wars and rumours of wars; see that you are not alarmed; for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places: all this is but the beginning of the birth pangs. ‘Then they will hand you over to be tortured and will put you to death, and you will be hated by all nations because of my name. Then many will fall away, and they will betray one another and hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and lead many astray. And because of the increase of lawlessness, the love of many will grow cold. But anyone who endures to the end will be saved. And this good news of the kingdom will be proclaimed throughout the world, as a testimony to all the nations; and then the end will come."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 18-19/2019
Lebanon Uprising Enters Day 33
Lebanon’s Army Chief Defends Protester Arrests
Lebanon is a sinking ship, parliament speaker warns
Jumblat Says High Officials ‘Schizophrenic’
Al-Hassan Discusses Legislative Session Security Measures with ISF, Army Chiefs
Geagea chairs 'Strong Lebanon' bloc meeting/ LF 15 MP's will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
Hariri chairs Future bureaus meeting
'Democratic Gathering' bloc convenes to discuss political situation/Will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
Lebanese banks to reopen as withdrawal limits made official/The country's parliament speaker called it a 'sinking ship'
Banks to Reopen Tuesday after Employees End Strike
U.S. Slams 'Russian Attempts' to Miscast Lebanon Protests as 'U.S. Plot'
Army Chief Vows to Protect Protesters
Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Govt., Report Says
LF, PSP, Kataeb, Independents to Boycott Tuesday's Legislative Session
Hariri Congratulates Khalaf on Being Elected Head of Bar Association
Independent Lawyer Defeats Ruling Class in Beirut Bar Elections
Lebanon Protests Test Hezbollah’s Role as Shi'ites' Champion
Lebanese Held by Israel after Jumping Fence Handed to Army
Lebanese Protests Test Hizbullah's Role as 'Shiites’ Champion'
Lebanon’s Kataeb Party to boycott parliament session

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 18-19/2019
At least 40 killed in Iran protests: Report
Iran breaches another nuclear deal cap, on heavy water stock: IAEA report
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warn protesters of ‘decisive’ action if unrest continues
Iran 'Calmer' despite More 'Riots' over Oil Price Hikes
Iran protesters set fire to Khamenei billboard as security crackdown intensifies
Son of Iran’s late Shah releases audio in support of protests
Iran condemns US show of support for ‘rioters’
Germany urges Iran to respect ‘legitimate’ protests
Report: IRGC, Muslim Brotherhood Held Secret Summit to Join Forces Against Saudi Arabia
New US Ambassador in Cairo after Post Left Vacant for 2 Years
Turkey will launch Syria operation if area not cleared of YPG militants
Khartoum Announces Deal on Filling Renaissance Dam in 7 Years
Sisi in Berlin to Attend G20-Initiative Compact with Africa
Egypt at risk of US sanctions over purchase of Russian fighter jets: US official
Germany, France Urge Iran to Respect Freedom of Expression
Trump is Distancing Himself from Netanyahu, Israeli Media
Netanyahu: Minority government would be a gift for Iran, Hamas
Israel's Gantz Races to Form Government
US blacklists companies, people for support of ISIS
Three dead in Oklahoma Walmart shooting: US media

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2019
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export./Maya Carlin/Jerusalem Post/November 18/2019
AMCD Applauds Secretary Pompeo for Supporting Civil Unrest in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon -Need to Appoint Special Task Force/EINPresswire.com/November 18, 2019
Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq/Asharq Al-AwsatNovember 18/2019
Lebanese Eurobonds, inevitable default or trade of a lifetime/Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 18/2019
Matbakh El Balad: The initiative that feeds 1000 Lebanese protesters a day/Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 18/2019
The Ravages of Inequality/The Lebanese are united in revolt, but their political system is not made to calm their rage./Lydia Assouad/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2019
*Radical Persecution Must Be Eradicated/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/November 18/2019
Soviet Wrinkles in the Face of the Iranian Regime/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 18/2019
Claims Iran is not an aggressor refuted by the facts/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/November 18/2019
Information a key weapon as Iran clamps down on protests/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 18/2019
Israelis and militants killing off any chance of peace/Chris Doyle/Arab News/November 18/2019
Australia wrong to deny Iranian writer Boochani asylum/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 18/2019
Few in America enamored by Trump’s praise for Erdogan/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/November 18/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 18-19/2019
Lebanon Uprising Enters Day 33
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Protests continue in Lebanon Monday as an unprecedented protest movement against the ruling elite entered day 33 with the country in the grip of political and economic turmoil. In north Lebanon, and other areas students led the protests as they skipped classes with some blocking the entrance to the Beirut Arab University branch in al-Dibbiyeh. Others at the Lebanese University refused to attend classes. Protesters blocked the school entrance of Bakhoun in Miniyeh. Students held a sit-in in front of the offices of the Finance Ministry in Tripoli preventing access for employees. They also blocked several state institutions. In Beirut they rallied in front of the Education Ministry. Demonstrators are demanding a complete overhaul of the political class and for a new government of technocrats not affiliated with traditional parties. Protests have somewhat calmed down in Beirut, but are all prepared to ban the parliament from convening on Tuesday. They have called for the formation of a human chain around the parliament premises in Beirut's Nejmeh Square. Speaker Nabih Berri had several times postponed a legislative session to elect the secretariat and committee members. Last week he rescheduled it to November 18. The leaderless pan-sectarian movement has swept the Mediterranean country since October 17, prompting the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri's government. Protesters have decried everything from unemployment to chronic power cuts and say they are fed up with the same families dominating government institutions since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. No date has been set for parliamentary consultations required to pave the way for a new cabinet line-up and the country has been paralyzed by school and bank closures.

Lebanon’s Army Chief Defends Protester Arrests
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, said Sunday that recent arrests against protesters targeted individuals who had sought to incite riots and violence and who had prevented the military from carrying out its duties. He also stressed that the closure of roads by protesters was unacceptable. He called for steering clear from rumors that only serve to drive a wedge between the people and military. "History will show that the Lebanese army saved Lebanon," he underlined during an inspection of troops deployed in Beirut and the Mount Lebanon region. Since October 17, Lebanon has been plunged in massive anti-government protests that are demanding the ouster of the current political class, whom demonstrators blame for rampant corruption and the country’s worst economic crisis since the civil war. Protesters have sought to block roads in a bid to make their voices heard. The military recently arrested several demonstrators. Aoun stressed that the army is "responsible for the security of demonstrators and other citizens,” praising their “high level of awareness” in preventing the rallies from spiraling into violence. He revealed that the arrests included non-Lebanese people and others found to be in possession of drugs. "The army is working and acting in the manner it deems fit," he stressed. Aoun commended the "level of professionalism, discipline, high morality and courage demonstrated by the army in carrying out all the tasks entrusted to it with honor, sacrifice and loyalty.”Addressing the troops, he hailed their devotion and dedication to their oath in serving the country and in proving that the military protects all citizens, regardless of their affiliations or views.

Lebanon is a sinking ship, parliament speaker warns
Reuters, Beirut/Monday, 18 November 2019
Lebanon is like a sinking ship that will go under unless action is taken, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying on Monday, referring to the country’s deep economic and political crisis. Berri, an ally of Lebanese Hezbollah, told visitors that efforts to form a new government were “completely frozen” and awaiting developments at any moment, the newspaper al-Joumhuria reported. Struggling with a massive public debt and economic stagnation, Lebanon has sunk into major political trouble since protests erupted against its ruling elite a month ago, leading Prime Minister Saad Hariri to quit on Oct. 29.
On Sunday, banks, which have mostly been closed since the protests began, announced temporary measures including a weekly cap of $1,000 on cash withdrawals and restricting transfers abroad to cover urgent personal spending only. A bank staff union will decide later on Monday whether to lift a strike that has kept the banks shut for the past week. Efforts to form a new government, needed to enact urgent reforms, hit a setback at the weekend when former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy for the post of prime minister, sparking bitter recriminations. Hezbollah said “political understandings” would take place between “the parties and even with leaders of the protest movement” to form a new government, without giving further details. Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem, in an interview with Iranian media broadcast by the group’s television station al-Manar, said the new government’s agenda would help to calm down the streets. Both Hezbollah and Berri want Hariri to be prime minister again. Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist group by the US. Berri said he still hoped Hariri would agree to form the new cabinet, al-Joumhuria reported. “The country is like a ship that is sinking little by little,” the paper quoted him as saying. “If we don’t take the necessary steps, it will sink entirely.”An-Nahar newspaper quoted Berri as likening the situation of the Lebanese people to that of passengers on the Titanic, the passenger liner that sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg. Some protesters had rejected the potential nomination of Safadi, a prominent businessman and former lawmaker from the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli, saying he is part of a political elite they want ousted. Lebanon’s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, according to its sectarian power-sharing system.

Jumblat Says High Officials ‘Schizophrenic’
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Monday slammed the country’s top decision-making authority whom he said was “schizophrenic,” as the country enters day 33 of nationwide protests demanding an overhaul of the political class. “Schizophrenia prevails in the higher decision-making circles, which cannot cede power in exchange for a modern transitional alternative to the Third Republic, now that the Second Republic has died,” said Jumblat in a tweet, referring to the term of President Michel Aoun. “More importantly, the PSP believes that modernization and change are important in order to meet the challenges. To be or not to be..." he added. Nationwide protests erupted in Lebanon on Oct 17 demanding an overhaul of the entire political class. Hariri resigned on Oct. 29 “in response to protesters’ demands.” Since his resignation, parties have not been able to form a new government due to political conflicts. On Sunday, the political crisis worsened when the outgoing prime minister (Hariri) harshly criticized the Free Patriotic Movement --the party of the country’s president-- blaming it for weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet amid ongoing anti-government protests. Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier, nearly three weeks after Hariri resigned. Some major factions in Lebanon’s sectarian political system want to keep Hariri in the new government. But they want him to form a cabinet of politicians and technocrats. He’s insisting on only technocrats. Aoun’s party on Sunday responded that Hariri’s stance intends to dominate the new Cabinet by insisting “it's either me or no one else in the government.”The exchange of blame and criticism between Hariri’s office and Aoun’s party come as Lebanon is passing through its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. Lebanon is one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world and was already dealing with a severe fiscal crisis before the protests began, one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.

Al-Hassan Discusses Legislative Session Security Measures with ISF, Army Chiefs
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Monday met with Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman to discuss the security measures that will be taken by the ISF during Tuesday’s parliamentary session.
Al-Hassan also held phone talks with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun during the meeting to “coordinate the security steps that will be taken,” the National News Agency said. MTV meanwhile reported that protesters have called for gathering Tuesday at 7:00 am at Beirut’s Martyrs Square to block roads and prevent the controversial legislative session from taking place.
“Protesters have held Speaker Nabih Berri responsible for any bloodshed tomorrow should he insist on holding the legislative session,” MTV added.
A controversial general amnesty law is on the agenda of the legislative session.
Speaker Nabih Berri had postponed the session last Tuesday over “security concerns.”Protesters have vowed to prevent the session from being held through blocking all entrances leading to parliament.

Sami Gemayel says will boycott Parliament session tomorrow
NNA//November 16/2019
Kataeb Party leader, MP Sami Gemayel, on Monday announced that he would be boycotting the House of Parliament’s session tomorrow.
“We have been informed that it will be a secret session void of the laws that are being demanded by the people,” Gemayel said. He also pointed out that the law to abolish the pensions of former deputies, electronic voting, and reform laws were not on the agenda as well. He finally highlighted the importance of giving utmost priority for designation, deeming it the responsibility of the President of the Republic.

Geagea chairs 'Strong Lebanon' bloc meeting/ LF 15 MP's will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
LCCC/NNA/November 16/2019
The "Strong Republic" bloc on Monday held its regular meeting in Maarab under the chairmanship of Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea. After the meeting Geagea declared in a press conference that the LF 15 MP's will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow and called on president Aoun to start the mendatory consultations in a bid to assign a PM to form a new government

Hariri chairs Future bureaus meeting
NNA/November 16/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri chaired this afternoon at the Center House a meeting of the political and executive bureaus of the Future movement..Discussions reportedly focused on the political situation, particularly the circumstances related to government formation process.

'Democratic Gathering' bloc convenes to discuss political situation/Will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
NNA//November 16/2019
The "Democratic Gathering" bloc convened this evening in Clemenceau under the chairmanship of MP Teymour Jumblatt. As per a statement by the bloc, the meeting discussed "the agenda of the Parliamentary session and the current political situation."

Lebanese banks to reopen as withdrawal limits made official/The country's parliament speaker called it a 'sinking ship'
The National/November 18/2019
Lebanon's bank staff union announced on Monday that it is ending a week-long strike after increased security and new regulations that make limits on withdrawal and dollar transfers official.
The union said Monday banks will reopen the following day. Banks have been at the centre of anti-government protests, as demonstrators accused them of corruption and mismanagement. They had closed with the eruption of protests on October 17, opening only for a week. Depositers then rushed in to withdraw money, but banks had begun imposing informal capital controls that angered many clients and added to the turmoil, prompting the employees' strike. The banks had been closed since November 12 because of a strike that the bank employees' federation said was over security concerns by staff facing intimidation from clients demanding their money.
On Saturday, security forces said they will boost security around banks. A day later, the Banks Association declared formal controls, limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per week, and transfers abroad to "urgent matters." On Monday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying that Lebanon is like a sinking ship that will go under unless action is taken, referring to the country's deep economic and political crisis. Mr Berri, an ally of the powerful Shi'ite group Hezbollah, told visitors that efforts to form a new government were "completely frozen" and awaiting developments at any moment, the newspaper Al Joumhuria reported. Struggling with a massive public debt and economic stagnation, Lebanon has sunk into major political trouble since protests erupted against its ruling elite a month ago, leading Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri to quit on October 29.
On Sunday, banks, which have mostly been closed since the protests began, announced temporary measures including a weekly cap of $1,000 on cash withdrawals and restricting transfers abroad to cover urgent personal spending only. A bank staff union will decide later on Monday whether to lift a strike that has kept the banks shut for the past week.
Efforts to form a new government, needed to enact urgent reforms, hit a setback at the weekend when former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy for the post of prime minister, sparking bitter recriminations. Hezbollah, a heavily armed group backed by Iran, said "political understandings" would take place between "the parties and even with leaders of the protest movement" to form a new government, without giving further details.Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem, in an interview with Iranian media broadcast by the group's television station Al Manar, said the new government's agenda would help to calm down the streets. Both Hezbollah and Mr Berri want Mr Hariri, who is aligned with Gulf Arab and Western states, to be prime minister again. Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist group by the United States. Mr Berri said he still hoped Mr Hariri would agree to form the new cabinet, Al Joumhuria reported. "The country is like a ship that is sinking little by little," the paper quoted him as saying. "If we don't take the necessary steps, it will sink entirely." An-Nahar newspaper quoted Mr Berri as likening the situation of the Lebanese people to that of passengers on the Titanic, the passenger liner that sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg. Some protesters had rejected the potential nomination of Mr Safadi, a prominent businessman and former lawmaker from the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli, saying he is part of a political elite they want ousted.
Lebanon's prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, according to its sectarian power-sharing system.

Banks to Reopen Tuesday after Employees End Strike
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Lebanon’s banks will reopen Tuesday after around a one-week strike by their employees, the employees’ union said. In a statement, the executive council of the Federation of Syndicates of Banks Employees in Lebanon announced the end of the strike and said employees will resume their work on Tuesday. Speaking at a press conference later in the day, a Federation spokesman said "it is unacceptable to say that the Federation had conspired with the Association of Banks against the Lebanese." "The security plan presented by the Interior Ministry is sufficient to create the appropriate climate," he added. LBCI television had reported that the re-opening decision was taken after the Association of Banks put the Federation in the picture of the Interior Ministry's security plan that is aimed at ensuring the safety of bank employees amid the turbulent situations in the country. The Association also agreed with the Union on a host of new and "unified" banking measures aimed at preserving financial stability. Employees had cited security concerns upon declaring their strike. Banks have been at the center of anti-government protests, as demonstrators accused them of corruption and mismanagement. They had closed with the eruption of protests on Oct. 17, opening only for a week. Depositors then rushed in to withdraw money, but banks had begun imposing informal capital controls that angered many clients and added to the turmoil, prompting the employees' strike. On Saturday, security forces said they will boost security around banks. A day later, the Banks Association declared formal controls, limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per week, and transfers abroad to "urgent matters."

U.S. Slams 'Russian Attempts' to Miscast Lebanon Protests as 'U.S. Plot'
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The U.S. State Department on Monday accused the Russian government of seeking to “cast doubt on the authenticity of the Lebanese people’s demand to end endemic corruption.”“Russian attempts to miscast the Lebanese people’s resolve as a U.S. plot follow a well-worn playbook,” State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said. “We proudly stand with the Lebanese people,” she added.

Army Chief Vows to Protect Protesters
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun toured several areas around the country, visiting troops and vowing to protect the protesters. Aoun said Sunday that protests in Lebanon have witnessed less violence than other places including Iraq, Iran, Hong Kong, Bolivia and Paris. “We did not stop anyone who is protesting in squares, but when they want to close roads and harass people we will intervene,” the general said, referring to some activists who closed roads around the country before the army opened them by force.
“How many people are dying in Iraq every day?” the commander said. More than 320 Iraqi protesters have been killed by security forces in Iraq since the beginning of October. He said an investigation is underway in the case of a protester (Alaa Abu Fakhr) killed by a soldier last week in southern Beirut.
Nationwide demonstrations began on Oct. 17 against new taxes on WhatsApp calls amid a plunging economy. The protesters now are calling for the downfall of the political elite who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war.

Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Govt., Report Says 
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday reportedly announced that he is still insisting on forming a technocrat government. “Let them go to binding parliamentary consultations and I’m still committed to forming a government of experts,” Hariri told al-Mustaqbal Movement’s political bureau according to LBCI television. An official statement issued by Hariri’s office said the caretaker PM presided over a politburo meeting and that discussions “tackled the general political situations, especially the circumstances related to the government formation process.”

LF, PSP, Kataeb, Independents to Boycott Tuesday's Legislative Session
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The MPs of the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Kataeb Party and the parliament’s independent MPs will not take part in Tuesday’s controversial legislative session, TV networks said. Kataeb chief MP Sami Gemayel announced the boycott of the session in a live video on his Facebook page, noting that the session “will not be public” and “reporters will not be able to attend it.” “We have been informed that the session’s agenda does not include any law demanded by the Lebanese, such as the law on the judiciary’s independence, the law on recovering stolen funds and the law on lifting bank secrecy,” Gemayel added. “The priority today is for designating a new premier,” Gemayel stressed, calling on President Michel Aoun to “stop the delay in calling for (binding parliamentary) consultations.” “In response to the demands of the youths present on the ground, we declare our boycott of tomorrow’s parliamentary session,” he said. MP Osama Saad, whose supporters are actively taking part in the protest movement that has been sweeping Lebanon since October 17, also announced his boycott of the session. “Neither the uprising’s demands nor people’s priorities are on the agenda and there will be no discussions on the means to overcome the dangerous, fateful crisis that the country is going through,” Saad said. MP Hadi Abu al-Hosn of the Progressive Socialist Party meanwhile confirmed that the MPs of the Democratic Gathering will not attend the session, saying “the priority remains for the parliamentary consultations” to name a new premier. “The first step towards reform should be the adoption of a law on the judiciary’s independence,” he said. A controversial general amnesty law is on the agenda of the legislative session. Speaker Nabih Berri had postponed the session last Tuesday over “security concerns.”
Protesters have vowed to prevent the session from being held through blocking all entrances leading to parliament.

Hariri Congratulates Khalaf on Being Elected Head of Bar Association
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday called the new president of the Beirut Bar Association Melhem Khalaf, congratulating him on his election and “wishing him success in his mission,” Hariri’s office said. Civil society activist Khalaf, who was backed by the protest movement that has been sweeping the country since October 17, scored a precious win for the nascent movement over the country’s established political parties. Speaking after he was declared the winner, Khalaf saluted “the enthusiasts of democracy,” hoping democracy will renew all institutions.

Independent Lawyer Defeats Ruling Class in Beirut Bar Elections
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Independent lawyers in Lebanon achieved an exceptional victory in Sunday’s elections for the Beirut Bar Association after Melhem Khalaf defeated a candidate supported by the country’s political parties.
Khalaf won with 2,341 votes against Nader Gaspard. Immediately after announcing the results, aired live on local television, lawyers gathering at the Justice Palace in Beirut chanted: “Revolution, revolution,” reminiscent of anti-government protesters who have gathered in public squares across Lebanon since Oct. 17. Lawyers then recited together the national anthem. “We hope that the joyful scene we have witnessed today would extend to the whole country for the establishment of democracy and the renewal of the spirit of institutions, which should protect the citizens,” Khalaf said. He stressed that the Bar Association would protect “public freedoms and human rights.”Commenting on Khalaf’s election, former Minister Boutros Harb said that the result of the Association’s election was the biggest blow to the ruling authority since the eruption of protests “because it proved that the overwhelming majority of our people reject the rule of mafias.”“It’s the first democratic victory among many more victories to come,” he remarked. The head of the Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, stressed that the lawyers said their word. “The train of change is on the right track. The journey, which began from the Bar Association today in the face of partisanship, will not stop. Congratulations to our colleague Melhem Khalaf. We hope our homeland will be restored,” Gemayel said. MP Shamil Roukoz, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law who recently announced his withdrawal from the ruling ‘Strong Lebanon’ parliamentary bloc, congratulated the new head of the Beirut Bar Association on his election. “We hope that the Association would at this stage play a role to defend rights and achieve justice,” he said, calling on “everyone to review the results, draw lessons, and adhere to (Lebanon’s) principles, instead of betting on interest-based alliances.”

Lebanon Protests Test Hezbollah’s Role as Shi'ites' Champion
The Associated Press/November 18/2019
Though they agree with Hezbollah's 'resistance' against Israel, demonstrators blast the group's silence on corruption and poverty
Young men chanting the "people want to bring down the regime" gathered outside the office of Lebanese legislator Mohammed Raad, the powerful head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc. One shirtless man grabbed a metal rod and swung it at the sign bearing Raad’s name, knocking it out of place as others cheered. It was a rare scene in the southern market town of Nabatiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold. The protests engulfing Lebanon have united many across sectarian lines and shattered taboos, with some taking aim at leaders from their own sects, illustrating a new, unfamiliar challenge posed to the militant group. Iranian-backed Hezbollah built a reputation among supporters as a champion of the poor and a defender of Lebanon against Israel's much more powerful military. It and its Shi'ite ally, the Amal party, have enjoyed overwhelming backing among the Shi'ite community since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, making them a political powerhouse that, along with allies, has dominated recent governments. But now many protesters group Hezbollah into the ruling class they are revolting against, blaming it for wrecking the economy with years of corruption and mismanagement. Protesters want that entire political elite out. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Amal’s chief, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, have not been spared. "All of them means all of them, and Nasrallah is one of them," protesters have chanted at some Beirut rallies. The demonstrations that erupted October 17 spread throughout the country, including predominantly Shi'ite areas in the south and the eastern Bekaa Valley. “The heavy participation of the Shi'ites ... posed a main challenge: that there's a large number from the sect that doesn’t accept the current situation,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “That's why there was a swift and decisive decision to nip this in the bud.”

Lebanese Held by Israel after Jumping Fence Handed to Army
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The Lebanese army received on Monday from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a Lebanese citizen who was arrested by Israeli military after crossing the northern border of the occupied territories of Palestine from Lebanon. Investigations were opened into the incident under the supervision of related authority. On Saturday, the state-run National News Agency said Jaafar Mohammed Moustafa jumped over the border fence into Israel after shooting two people on the Lebanese side of the frontier. The Israeli military said it arrested the man and that he was held for questioning. Israel has been on high alert since August, when its aircraft struck targets in Syria and Lebanon linked to Iran and its regional proxy, Hizbullah. In September, brief cross-border fighting erupted after Hizbullah fired a barrage of missiles in response to Israeli airstrikes.

Lebanese Protests Test Hizbullah's Role as 'Shiites’ Champion'
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Lebanon’s protests have shown unusual, overt anger at the country’s powerhouse, Hizbullah. The Shiite group has long enjoyed a reputation among its supporters as a champion of the poor and defender of the country against Israel. That’s helped it dominate Lebanon’s political scene.
But now protesters want that entire political elite out — including Hizbullah — and even some among its Shiite supporters are angry over economic woes. Hizbullah and its ally, the Amal party, have enjoyed overwhelming backing among the Shiite community since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, making them a political powerhouse that has dominated recent governments. But now many protesters group Hizbullah into the ruling class that they are revolting against and blame for wrecking the economy with years of corruption and mismanagement.

Lebanon’s Kataeb Party to boycott parliament session
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 18 November 2019
Lebanon’s Kataeb Party said it will boycott a legislative session scheduled for Tuesday to vote on measures related to corruption, a general amnesty, and pensions. Almost three weeks after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned amid massive anti-government protests, President Michel Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary bloc leaders to name a new premier. The party’s leader and member of parliament Sami Gemayel has voiced criticism of the ruling class amid the unprecedented protests that are engulfing Lebanon since October 17. Local media reported that many officials too have criticized the holding of the legislative session on Tuesday as being unconstitutional as well as failing to respond to the demands of protesters. As per the Constitution, lawmakers must discuss and endorse the state budget for the upcoming year during Tuesday's legislative session before passing any new measures or draft laws.

Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export.
ميا كارلن/جيرازلم بوست: حزب الله بالتأكيد هو أهم صادرات إيران الناجحة
Maya Carlin/Jerusalem Post/November 18/2019
Could uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon, coupled with US sanctions, permanently impair Iran’s influence in the region?
In the past few weeks, frustrated and fed-up demonstrators have taken to the streets of Lebanon and Iraq to voice grievances against their governments. The perception of Iranian infiltration and influence certainly continues to impact this political shake-up in both regions.
These protests have toppled two governments in just three days. Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister, announced his resignation last week. Iraq’s President Barham Salih stated that Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had also agreed to resign from office once a successor is decided upon.
In both Iraq and Lebanon, political factions are divided by religions and sects. These government systems are designed to limit sectarian conflicts by ensuring a sharing of power to different communities. However, in both regions, prominent Shia parties are conjoined with Iran. Since protesters are demanding an end to their government’s power-sharing system, Tehran is in trouble.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced via Twitter on Thursday that, “The people [protesters] have justifiable demands, but they should know their demands can only be fulfilled within the legal structure and framework of their country. When the legal structure is disrupted in a country, no action can be carried out.”This statement, riddled with irony, completely discounts the revolution which birthed the government Khamenei currently leads. The ayatollah also verified how deeply entrenched Hezbollah has become in Lebanon’s political makeup.
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export. For over two decades, Tehran has played the role of puppet-master in Beirut, attempting to counter the influence of its enemies: the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s critical influence in the region was demonstrated during the 2006 war with Israel and with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) intervention in the Syrian conflict.
Although Hezbollah’s military wing was rightfully designated as a terrorist organization in April by US President Donald Trump, the organization’s military and political wings work in tandem to export the regime’s disturbing agenda. In 2017, the US State Department identified more than 250 operatives and 150 companies with Hezbollah ties. Last year, the details of Project Cassandra exposed the sophistication and breadth of Hezbollah’s billion-dollar criminal enterprise.
Since Tehran heavily invests in Hezbollah’s role globally, these protests do not bode well for the regime. Iranian leadership clearly grasps the magnitude of these demonstrations since its officials have attempted to paint them as manifestations of foreign meddling. Khamenei has accused “US and Western intelligence services, with the financial backing of evil countries,” of orchestrating these protests.
In Iraq, anti-Iran sentiment has monopolized the demonstrations. Last week in Baghdad, protesters were pictured torching an Iranian flag. On Sunday, they threw gasoline bombs at the Iranian Consulate in the country’s capital of Karbala. The former head of the Iraqi National Archives explained that, “the revolution is not anti-American, it is anti-Iran; it is anti-religion – anti-political religion, not religion as such.” Pro-Iranian paramilitary forces have violently intervened in recent demonstrations. Since October 1, the Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights reports that 301 protesters have been killed, and thousands more injured.
As Tehran continues to dismiss these protests as inauthentic and foreign-led, demonstrators will only gain more momentum. While Iran grapples with the economic consequences of Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign, it may not be able to survive the coupled onslaught of these protests.
*The writer is a master’s candidate in counter-terrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government. She is also associate producer and analyst at the Center for Security Policy in Washington.
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Is-Iran-losing-the-Middle-East-608152

AMCD Applauds Secretary Pompeo for Supporting Civil Unrest in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon -Need to Appoint Special Task Force
EINPresswire.com/November 18, 2019
U.S, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has issued public statements of support for the civil society in Iran seeking the separation of mosque and state, protesters in Iraq seeking freedom from Iranian interference in its internal affairs, and protesters in Lebanon seeking freedom from Iranian domination through its proxy, Hezbollah. The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy supports all these positions.
“These revolutions are organic by the people and are rejecting what the traditional political parties and their leaders have sold them over the years,“ said AMCD co-chair, Tom Harb. “All three revolutions are rebelling against corruption and their dire economic situations and they consider Iranian influence as the key cause of the corruption and economic deterioration.”
Over the past decade, the Islamic Republic of Iran has tipped the balance of effective force in the Middle East in its favor. It has achieved superior conventional force with the use of influence operations and third-party forces. The key ingredient here has been the Quds Force, the external operations wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). The fact that Iran now has such an extensive and geographically dispersed network of alliances gives it ample scope to conduct deniable operations.
However, it is very expensive for Iran to fund such a large group network of alliances throughout the Middle East. The sanctions imposed by the U.S. are biting and its own population and its third party alliances are suffering the effects economically. These sanctions have caused the Iranian GDP to shrink by 6% and have thus caused its alliances to dwindle dramatically. The recent unrest was brought about by regressing economic conditions, while the local populations see corrupt politicians getting paid to advance Iranian interests all over the greater Middle East.
“U.S. sanctions are working and should be expanded, with the goal of limiting Iran’s influence to its border,” said AMCD vice-chair, Hossein Khorram. “Iran should be held accountable for its lack of respect for the human rights of its citizens.”
“Iran is a signatory to Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” Khorram continued, “but it is unlikely to change course. Most likely, Iran will continue to seize opportunities to expand its third-party capability. It is up to the United States to seize this golden opportunity by strategically nurturing secular nationalist movements in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon before Iran forces their submission through terror and intimidation as it has so many times in the past.”
“Nature abhors a vacuum,” added AMCD co-chair, John Hajjar. “If these corrupt governments fail, the Islamist militias of Hezbollah, the PMU, Quds force and IRGC will fill the void. In fact, this may be the plan contemplated by the Mullahs all along.”
The American Middle Eastern community, estimated at 3.2% of the U.S. population, can be the catalyst for the United States’ support of secular civil society against Iran’s expansionist Islamic ideology. We strongly support the formation of a US Task force on the protests in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon to include the Administration, Congress and Mideastern Americans. The AMCD stands ready to participate.
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
+1 615-775-6801

Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Hundreds of pages of Iranian intelligence documents detailing how Iran managed to gain influence over neighboring Iraq have been leaked.
Obtained by The New York Times and The Intercept, the 700 pages of Iranian intelligence cables show Tehran’s efforts to embed itself in Iraq, including the role Iranian spies played in appointing Iraqi officials.
Dating between 2014 and 2015, they revealed that Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi shared a “special relationship” with Tehran when he served as oil minister in 2014. The exact nature of that relationship is not detailed in the cable.
“No Iraqi politician can become prime minister without Iran’s blessing, and Abdul Mahdi, when he secured the premiership in 2018, was seen as a compromise candidate acceptable to both Iran and the United States,” reported The Intercept.
Former PM Nouri al-Maliki, meanwhile, spent more than two decades in exile in Syria and Iran. He was a favorite of Tehran’s and served as premier between 2006 and 2014. His replacement, the British-educated Haidar al-Abadi, was seen as more friendly to the West and less sectarian.
This did not worry the Iranians, because several ministers in Abadi’s government enjoyed close ties with Tehran. For example, Ibrahim al-Jafari — who had previously served as Iraqi prime minister and by late 2014 was the foreign minister — was, like Abdul Mahdi, identified as having a “special relationship” with Iran. In an interview, Jafari did not deny that he had close relations with Iran, but said he had always dealt with foreign countries based on the interests of Iraq. The transportation minister — Bayan Jabr, who had led the Iraqi Interior Ministry at a time when hundreds of prisoners were tortured to death with electric drills or summarily shot by death squads — was deemed to be “very close” to Iran. When it came to Iraq’s education minister, one cable said: “We will have no problem with him.” The former ministers of municipalities, communications, and human rights were all members of the Badr Organization, a political and military group established by Iran in the 1980s to oppose Saddam Hussein. The former minister of municipalities denied having a close relationship with Iran, while the former human rights minister did. The former minister of communications said that he served Iraq, not Iran, and that he maintained relationships with diplomats from many countries. In fall 2014, Jabr, then the transportation minister, welcomed Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, to his office. Soleimani had come to ask a favor: Iran needed access to Iraqi airspace to fly planeloads of weapons and other supplies to support the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad in its fight against opposition factions.
Jabr agreed.
Jabr confirmed the meeting with Soleimani, but said the flights from Iran to Syria carried humanitarian supplies and religious pilgrims traveling to Syria to visit holy sites, not weapons and military supplies to aid Assad as American officials believed. Meanwhile, the administration of Barack Obama believed that Maliki’s “draconian policies and crackdowns on Iraqi Sunnis had helped lead to the rise of the ISIS group,” reported The Intercept. “In Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, which Iran considers crucial to its national security, the Revolutionary Guards — and in particular its Quds Force, led by Soleimani — determines Iran’s policies. “Ambassadors to those countries are appointed from the senior ranks of the Guards, not the foreign ministry, which oversees the intelligence ministry, according to several advisers to current and past Iranian administrations.” According to the reports, after the American troop withdrawal in 2011, Iran moved quickly to add former CIA informants to its payroll. One undated section of an intelligence ministry cable shows that Iran began the process of recruiting a spy inside the State Department.
The State Department official is not named in the cable, but the person is described as someone who would be able to provide “intelligence insights into the US government’s plans in Iraq, whether it is for dealing with ISIS or any other covert operations.” In interviews, Iranian officials acknowledged that Iran viewed surveillance of American activity in Iraq after the United States invasion as critical to its survival and national security.
When reached by telephone by The Intercept, Hassan Danaiefar, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq from 2010 to 2017 and a former deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces, declined to directly address the existence of the cables or their release, but he did suggest that Iran had the upper hand in information gathering in Iraq.“Yes, we have a lot of information from Iraq on multiple issues, especially about what America was doing there,” he said. The cables also tackled the 2014 massacre of Sunnis in the farming community of Jurf al-Sakhar. It was a vivid example of the kinds of sectarian atrocities committed by armed groups loyal to Iran’s Quds Force. Jurf al-Sakhar, which lies just east of Fallujah in the Euphrates River Valley, is lush with orange trees and palm groves. It was overrun by the ISIS in 2014, giving militants a foothold from which they could launch attacks on the cities of Karbala and Najaf. When militias supported by Iran drove the militants out of Jurf al-Sakhar in late 2014, the first major victory over ISIS, it became a ghost town. Tens of thousands were displaced, and a local politician, the only Sunni member on the provincial council, was found with a bullet hole through his head.

Lebanese Eurobonds, inevitable default or trade of a lifetime
Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 18/2019
While the size of Lebanese debt is formidable, it is almost all internal and circular, and can (and should) be resolved over a weekend of tough, candid conversations.
Lebanese Eurobonds are trading at yields-to-maturity touching 80%, and these are the ones due in April 2020. Credit Default Swap levels have hit 5000 bps, up from the already ludicrous 1,500 level only a few weeks ago.
Clearly, market participants have priced in a default, with metaphysical certitude, on all bonds maturing after the ones supposed to pay off this month. Even Lebanese government officials have stated (then recanted) on multiple occasions that they will restructure, reschedule, postpone, and other euphemistic terms that confirm this view. According to the journalist who first broke the rescheduling statement in a local paper, the minister who announced it was reading from a document, i.e. while not inevitable, this is most certainly an option being seriously considered at the highest echelons of government. So, if the smartest people in the room, as well as the insiders, are telling you that they’ll default, should we end this article right here and move on to look at the safer Venezuelan or Argentinian Bonds for our distressed debt play?
Let’s look at the numbers. The eurobonds outstanding are $29.8 billion. We know that $16 billion are held by Lebanese banks and another $3 billion by the Central Bank of Lebanon (BDL), and an estimated $600 million by individuals. According to Bloomberg, which is not necessarily comprehensive, around $5 billion are held by foreigners. That leaves $5-6 billion with unknown ownership, but, at the very least, 67-84% are owned locally. The total Lebanese debt number that keeps being thrown around is $86 billion. Thus, at worst, 5-11% is held by foreigners.
However, if we add the debt held by the central bank, namely bank deposits lent to the central bank, which is now $110 billion (60% of which is in dollars, i.e. more than the eurobonds), that makes Lebanese government debt in the order of up to $180 billion, depending on how you calculate the recoverability value of some assets. So, basically, the eurobonds held by foreigners constitute something like 3-6% of all government debt.
Why am I making a big deal about debt by foreigners? Think of a credit card with a $10,000 limit. Suppose you charge $1,000 on it and you determine that you can’t pay and decide to default. Would you default on the $1,000 or would you run up the card to the whole ten grand, after one last boondoggle in Las Vegas the weekend before you default? While the size of Lebanese debt is formidable, it is almost all internal and circular, and can (and should) be resolved over a weekend of tough, candid conversations. So the bonds owned locally could all be paid through the usual financial engineering acrobatics. Payment goes from central bank, to Euroclear, to local bank, and right back to BDL, all solved à la Libanaise, while we do our internal “family” restructuring that nobody outside the country has to know about.
Once you consider the face value of the bonds, the case gets even more compelling. At current market values, BDL can buy the whole lot for a significant discount. If we dispatch our favorite verbally-challenged, conversationally accident-prone minister to a packed press conference, BDL can buy the whole lot for even less, while the ministry’s communications department issues their usual clarifications — “I meant restructuring ... no rescheduling ... no postponement. No, I meant everything will be paid on time.”The case for restructuring the whole system is self-evident — haircuts on deposits, devaluation, forced conversions, etc. So, why am I more bullish on the eurobonds? It’s quite simple, actually. If I were a decision-maker in the Government of Lebanon, why would I wreck my sovereign FICO 800-score, a record of never having defaulted on debt since the country’s independence, all for 5% of my debt?
It’s not because I’m a nice guy — it’s actually quite cynical and pragmatic. After the carnage is done, with the brutal local restructuring, I’d like to go back to the international markets at reasonable rates and use my intact credit record, to attract funds during the rebuilding phase.
Too wimpy to take a naked position? How about hedging your long position with a short on the bonds paying in two weeks? Who in their right mind would be preparing to default in April, right after paying $2 billion in November? The risk in this trade is that my analysis assumes the existence of the infamous “rational man” (ubiquitous in Economics texts), which is even more “unicornal” in the history of Lebanese Government decision-making. This is not a trade for the faint-hearted. It is the quintessential contrarian trade — this decade’s tinier version of John Paulson’s shorting subprime in 2008. It’s designed for a ballsy distressed debt hedge fund, taking a majority position (to get voting control). And the doozy on the whole thing? BDL’s gold is held in New York, all ripe for a lawsuit in case any public official wants to turn a slip of the tongue into action.

Matbakh El Balad: The initiative that feeds 1000 Lebanese protesters a day
Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 18/2019
Matbakh El Balad serves food for free and it has a donation box for those who can contribute.
BEIRUT: Every night at Martyr’s Square in a small corner in Downtown, Beirut, the high-pitched sound of the clanging of pots and pans can be heard three times: at five, seven and nine in the evening. Usually, this sound signals that “food is ready” for the hundreds of protestors who visit Downtown daily “and Beirut in general,” according to chef Wael Lazkani.
Lazkani is the founder of Matbakh el Balad, an initiative that, together with the help of volunteers, feeds around 1000 hungry protestors a day. “It’s not just the protesters who are welcome to eat in our humble corner,” Lazkani said. “It’s people from all over Beirut. The economic crisis in this country has left many families struggling,” he added. The idea came to Lazkani's mind on the third day of the revolution. "We were hearing rumors that the protestors were hungry and no one was feeding them. So my friends and I brought a huge cooking pot, a portable stove and some food to prepare. That day, we made soup for 200 people,” he said. Word quickly spread about a chef feeding people for free, and soon enough, people were sending food from their own kitchens to help.
After three to four days, Lazkani was overtaken by the quantity of food that's being given, and by the number of people who showed up when they heard the now-customary sound of clanging pots and pans. “I realized that the economic mismanagement of this country had actually resulted in hunger. I realized the need for an initiative like Matbakh el Balad,” Lazkani told Annahar. Matbakh El Balad serves food for free and it has a donation box for those who can contribute. The kitchen has close to 30 volunteers, with 10 volunteers taking daily shifts and organizing their schedules around the initiative. “We’re here every day after 4:00 p.m., except when there are general strikes,” said Lazkani. Annahar spoke to Sahar Hafdah, a volunteer at Matbakh El Balad who joins after her shift as a restaurant manager. “I’ve been with the initiative since day one. When Wael took out his cooking pot and asked for our help, I didn’t think twice,” Hafdah said. “The idea was to feed the people sleeping here in tents, then we found out there was a need among the larger crowd and we’ve been catering to that ever since.”Lazkani and Hafdah realize that, if Matbakh El Balad were to continue operating, it needs a financial plan. “We’ve already started saving money, and we’re being careful with the cost of the food we cook,” Lazkani said. “For example, we’re focusing on grains instead of meat so that our budget holds. We hope we can sustain this initiative in the future.”

The Ravages of Inequality/The Lebanese are united in revolt, but their political system is not made to calm their rage.
Lydia Assouad/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2019
This is a modified English-language version of an article that appeared in the French daily Le Monde, which can be read here.
For the first time in recent history, the Lebanese have been united in revolt. Since October 17 they have been protesting, but not according to their religious, social, or geographical backgrounds. They are calling for an end to the corrupt political system kept in place by a political and economic elite that has for far too long denied them economic opportunities and the simple ability to make ends meet.
Their first success came on October 29, when Prime Minister Sa‘d Hariri announced the resignation of his government. The widespread grievances against the elite are justified when we take a look at the data: Lebanon has one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, alongside Chile, Brazil, and South Africa. In a study published by the World Inequality Lab, I was able to estimate the distribution of Lebanese national income between 2005 and 2014 thanks to newly available individual tax records. The results speak for themselves: The richest 1 percent of Lebanese receives 25 percent of national income. To put this into perspective, in the United States and France, where inequality is increasing and is at the heart of public debates, the richest 1 percent receives 19 percent and 11 percent of total national income, respectively.
Another striking statistic in Lebanon is that the richest 0.1 percent of the population, around 3,700 people, earns as much as the bottom 50 percent, almost 2 million people—both equivalent to one tenth of national income. The richest group, which includes members of the political class, enjoys a standard of living similar to their counterparts in high-income countries, while the poorest suffer from extreme poverty, as in low-income countries. This polarization exacerbates the disconnect between the ruling elite and “the rest.” Shi‘a from the southern city of Tyre and Sunnis from the northern city of Tripoli have finally found common ground, because the political elite extracts large rents at their expense.
This concentration of income in the hands of the few is hardly a new phenomenon. Inequality has been extreme in Lebanon since at least 2005, the first year for which we have data. Why did inequality remain absent from the public debate until now?
The lack of figures on the socioeconomic situation in the country is one reason. The last national census was held in 1932. A banking secrecy law has been in force since 1956. And the last study estimating income distribution before my own analysis dates back to 1960! This lack of transparency contributed to a widespread narrative that inequality in Lebanon was not high by historical and international standards.
Another reason might be that the political system, which is based on religious patronage, creates citizens who primarily identify with their sect not their class. The political elites have strong incentives to maintain and strengthen these identities that allow them to favor financial and economic arrangements within their sect and control their respective regions. They amplify the rents extracted from the financial and real estate sectors, on which the Lebanese economy relies. In exchange, these sectarian elites provide to their communities basic public goods such as jobs, reductions in school fees, or health services. Even if the Lebanese are probably well aware of these schemes, they did not try to overthrow the system until now because in the absence of a state they preferred to have public goods provided by wealthy politicians to not having these goods at all.
Lebanon is caught in a vicious circle. Its rentier economy, coupled with the quasi-absence of a state, has caused extreme levels of inequality and poverty, which in turn have increased the public’s reliance on services provided by sectarian leaders. These enabled the latter to continue to enjoy support from the population, remain in power, and increase their wealth. Yet this, in turn, led to higher levels of inequality and a greater reliance on the system.
It took an economic and financial crisis, years of public mismanagement (in 2019 the cabinet met 20 times to finally agree on a budget last summer!), and the government’s introduction of particularly inappropriate austerity measures to finally break the cycle. This opens a historic window to undertake structural changes. These are essential to avoid the economic disaster the country faces and to allow Lebanon to exit from the political and economic deadlock in which it has been mired since the civil war’s end.
There are alternatives to austerity to tackle Lebanon’s public debt crisis. They include negotiating a form of debt relief with the country’s creditors—mostly Lebanese banks that are highly connected to the political elite. It also includes increasing fiscal revenues by creating a progressive tax on income and wealth.
With regard to taxation, there is a large avenue for improvement in Lebanon. The Lebanese state mostly relies on taxing consumption. This is notoriously regressive, as it imposes the same amount of tax on everyone, regardless of one’s income level. The state also does a very poor job of collecting revenues, with tax revenues in Lebanon representing 15 percent of GDP, against 35 percent on average in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The personal income tax system is archaic. It taxes each source of income separately, thereby decreasing both its progressivity as well as the total amount of tax collected. The tax rates applied to the richest are quite low by international standards—on average 21 percent in Lebanon, as opposed to 37 percent in the U.S. and 45 percent in France. A key priority is to radically reform the tax system to make it rely mostly on direct taxation, as opposed to indirect taxation (tax on consumption), and to create a general and progressive income tax on all sources of income (labor and capital incomes).
Moving from income to wealth, one option is to implement an exceptional tax on private capital, in particular on real estate. This tax would probably apply to a large base of people—although we still do not have reliable estimates of total private capital in Lebanon. Lebanese billionaires’ wealth, the tip of the iceberg, represented on average 20 percent of national income between 2005 and 2016, as opposed to 2 percent in China, 5 percent in France, and 10 percent in the U.S. This suggests that such a tax might raise a considerable amount of revenue in a short time. Wealth in Lebanon comes mostly from inefficient rents. Decreasing their sources would mean improving the welfare of the many, especially when we know that wealth inequality is a primary cause of income inequality. The amounts collected could help to weaken sectarian patronage and to undertake needed investments in infrastructure, education, and health. These structural measures could address the most important demand of protestors: An opportunity to have a future.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 18-19/2019
At least 40 killed in Iran protests: Report
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 18 November 2019
At least 40 people have been killed in Iran since anti-protests erupted across the country on Friday, according to a report by opposition website Radio Farda which cites human rights organizations and videos on social media.While the Iranian authorities have only confirmed the death of three people so far, multiple reports are suggesting that the death toll is at least 13 times higher than the official claim. Security forces opened fire on protesters from the rooftop of a building on Sunday in the city of Javanrud, killing at least four people, the Kurdistan human rights network reported on Twitter. A further six people were killed on Saturday and “between one to four” people on Sunday in Mariwan in the Kurdistan province, Mariwan-based journalist Adnan Hassanpour told Radio Farda. A man was also shot in the head, probably by a sniper, in Mariwan on Sunday, he said. Protests in the cities of Javanrud, Sanandaj, Kermanshah and Bukan were “widespread” and the death toll was “high,” Hassanpour added. In the southwestern province of Khuzestan, at least 13 people have been killed since Friday, Ahwazi London-based human rights activist Karim Dehimi said in an interview with Radio Farda. Iran imposed petrol rationing and raised pump prices by at least 50 percent on Friday, saying the move was aimed at helping citizens in need with cash handouts. Anti-government protests have erupted across Iran since the decision was announced. Iran has almost completely shut off internet access across the country as protests over an increase in fuel prices intensified for the fourth day, cybersecurity NGO Netblocks confirmed in a report. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday backed the gasoline price rise that has sparked nationwide protests, which he blamed on the Islamic Republic’s opponents and foreign foes.

Iran breaches another nuclear deal cap, on heavy water stock: IAEA report
Reuters, Vienna/Monday, 18 November 2019
Iran has breached another limit of its nuclear deal with major powers by accumulating more than 130 tons of heavy water, a moderator used in a type of reactor Iran is developing, a report by the UN nuclear watchdog said on Monday. “On 16 November 2019, Iran informed the Agency that its stock of heavy water had exceeded 130 metric tons,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report to member states obtained by Reuters. “On 17 November 2019, the Agency verified that the Heavy Water Production Plant (HWPP) was in operation and that Iran’s stock of heavy water was 131.5 metric tons.”On November 11, the UN watchdog said it had detected uranium particles at an undeclared site in Iran in its latest report on the country’s nuclear program. The report from IAEA says: “The agency detected natural uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at a location in Iran not declared to the agency.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warn protesters of ‘decisive’ action if unrest continues
Reuters, Dubai/Monday, 18 November 2019
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned anti-government protesters of “decisive” action if unrest over gasoline price hikes do not cease, state television reported on Monday. The warning appeared to hint at a looming crackdown on protests that flared nationwide in response to an official announcement on Friday of gasoline rationing and price hikes of at least 50 percent. “If necessary we will take decisive and revolutionary action against any continued moves to disturb the people’s peace and security,” the Guards said in a statement carried by state media.

Iran 'Calmer' despite More 'Riots' over Oil Price Hikes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Iran said it still faced riots even though the situation was "calmer" Monday after days of violent protests sparked by a shock decision to hike petrol prices in the sanctions-hit country. Major roads have been blocked, banks torched and shops looted in the nationwide unrest since Friday that has left at least two dead -- a civilian and a policeman. Masked young men were seen on debris-strewn streets setting buildings ablaze in footage that has been aired on state television, which rarely shows any signs of dissent. The Basij militia, a volunteer force loyal to the establishment, also reported looting. Its commander Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani accused Iran's arch-enemy the United States of instigating the unrest and said "America's plot failed", according to semi-official news agency ISNA. Demonstrations broke out on Friday after it was announced the price of petrol would be raised by 50 percent for the first 60 liters and 200 percent for any extra fuel after that each month. Iran's economy has been battered since May last year when President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from a 2015 nuclear agreement and reimposed crippling sanctions. The authorities say they have arrested more than 200 people and restricted internet access. Netblocks, a website that monitors net shutdowns, tweeted: "40 hours after #Iran implemented a near-total internet shutdown, connectivity to the outside world remains at just 5% of ordinary levels."Government spokesman Ali Rabiei said the situation was "calmer" Monday. He said there were still "some minor issues" but predicted that "tomorrow and the day after we won't have any issues with regard to riots," without elaborating. "There have been gatherings in some cities, in some provinces."Pressed to give figures on casualties in the unrest, he said: "What I can tell you today is that gatherings are about 80 percent less than the previous day."
'Lethal force'
The situation on the streets has been unclear largely due to the internet outage that has stemmed the flow of videos shared on social media of protests or associated acts of violence. The U.S. on Sunday condemned Iran for using "lethal force." "The United States supports the Iranian people in their peaceful protests against the regime that is supposed to lead them," said White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. Iran slammed US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after he tweeted "the United States is with you" Saturday in response to the demonstrations. The foreign ministry said it was reacting to Pompeo's "expression of support... for a group of rioters in some cities of Iran and condemned such support and interventionist remarks.""The dignified people of Iran know well that such hypocritical remarks do not carry any honest sympathy," said its spokesman Abbas Mousavi. "It's curious that the sympathizing is being done with the people who are under the pressure of America's economic terrorism," he said, referring to sanctions.
Welfare payments
Germany called Monday for dialogue between the government and "legitimate" protesters in Iran. France, for its part, reiterated its support for the right to peaceful demonstration and voiced regret for the death of "several" protesters.
Iran announced the decision to impose petrol price hikes and rationing at midnight Thursday-Friday, saying the move was aimed at helping the needy with cash handouts. The plan agreed by a council made up of the president, parliament speaker and judiciary chief comes at a sensitive time ahead of February parliamentary elections. It won support on Sunday from Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei blamed "hooligans" for damaging property and said "all the centers of the world's wickedness against us have cheered" the unrest. President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday defended the petrol price hike whose proceeds are to be used to make welfare payments to 60 million Iranians. But he also warned that Iran could not allow "insecurity". "Protesting is the people's right, but protesting is different from rioting. We should not allow insecurity in the society." The intelligence ministry said it has identified those behind the unrest and that measures would be taken against them. Forty people have been arrested in the central city of Yazd and another 180 in the southern province of Khuzestan, according to Iranian news agencies. The Revolutionary Guards arrested 150 protest "leaders" in Alborz province, said Tasnim news agency, adding they had confessed to having "received money" to torch buildings. In a statement carried Monday by state news agency IRNA, the Guards warned that if necessary it will "confront decisively... the continuation of any insecurity and actions disrupting people's peace and calm."

Iran protesters set fire to Khamenei billboard as security crackdown intensifies
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 18 November 2019
Protesters in the Iranian city of Isfahan set fire to a large billboard of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Monday, Iran International reported, as security forces use live ammunition to disperse protesters in the city of Shiraz. Markets were closed amid a general strike and tighter security in central Isfahan, it added. The TV channel reported that 30 people were arrested by security forces in Shiraz, citing a security official. They quoted a protester in Shiraz as saying: "The security forces are firing live bullets against the demonstrators who are burning all the banks in the Afif-Abad area, and the security forces are chasing the demonstrators with sticks and using tear gas."Al Arabiya sources have also said that security forces are firing gunshots in the air to disperse protesters. Meanwhile, government spokesman Ali Rabiei told a news conference in Tehran that the situation was "calmer" but there were still "some minor issues and tomorrow and the day after we won't have any issues with regard to riots." At least 40 people have been reportedly killed in Iran since anti-protests erupted across the country on Friday, according to a report by opposition website Radio Farda which cites human rights organizations and videos on social media. While the Iranian authorities have only confirmed the death of three people so far, multiple reports are suggesting that the death toll is at least 13 times higher than the official claim

Son of Iran’s late Shah releases audio in support of protests
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 18 November 2019
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, released an audio in which he voiced support to the protests across Iran, according to news reports. The exiled son of Iran’s last Shah before the 1979 Islamic Revolution and a critic of the country’s clerical leaders said that the mass protests in Iran are a wonderful show of national solidarity in the country, according to Iranintl.com. Protests continued in Iran for the third day on Sunday over an increase in fuel prices by at least 50 percent on Friday. News reports have put the death toll at 36 since protests erupted across Iran.
On Sunday the White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham said that “the United States supports the Iranian people in their peaceful protests against the regime that is supposed to lead them.”.

Iran condemns US show of support for ‘rioters’
AFP, Tehran/Monday, 18 November 2019
Iran condemned the US’ support for “rioters” in a statement issued late Sunday, after two days of violent protests in the Islamic republic against a petrol price hike. The foreign ministry said that it was reacting to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s “expression of support... for a group of rioters in some cities of Iran and condemned such support and interventionist remarks”.Protests erupted in Iran on Friday, hours after it was announced the price of petrol would rise to 15,000 rials a liter (12 US cents) from 10,000 for the first 60 litres and to 30,000 rials for any extra fuel bought after that each month.
In a tweet on Saturday, Pompeo said in response to the demonstrations that “the US is with you”. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi slammed his comments in Sunday night’s statement. “The dignified people of Iran know well that such hypocritical remarks do not carry any honest sympathy,” Mousavi was quoted as saying. “The acts of a rioter and saboteur group supported by the likes of (Pompeo) have no congruity with the conduct of the wise Iranian people.”The statement blasted Washington’s “ill-intent” over its decision to re-impose sanctions on Tehran after the US withdrawal in May last year from the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal. “It’s curious that the sympathizing is being done with the people who are under the pressure of America’s economic terrorism,” Mousavi said.

Germany urges Iran to respect ‘legitimate’ protests
AFP, Berlin/Monday, 18 November 2019
Berlin on Monday urged Iran to respect the “legitimate” protests against a petrol prike hike, and open talks with the demonstrators. “It is legitimate and deserving of our respect when people courageously air their economic and political grievances, as is currently happening in Iran,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer. “The Iranian government should respond to the current protests with a willingness to engage in dialogue,” she added. The French foreign ministry separately said it was “closely following” the events in Iran. France reiterates the need “to respect freedom of expression and the right to peaceful protest,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman said. At least two people have died in violent riots in Iran since Friday, sparked by a decision to impose petrol price hikes and rationing in the sanctions-hit country. Major roads have been blocked, banks torched and public buildings attacked in the nationwide unrest. Footage of the violence showing masked young men on debris-strewn streets setting buildings ablaze has been aired on state television, which rarely shows any signs of dissent in the country. Germany on Sunday tightened its travel advice for Iran, warning citizens to avoid demonstrations and large gatherings and refrain from expressing political opinions to strangers.

Report: IRGC, Muslim Brotherhood Held Secret Summit to Join Forces Against Saudi Arabia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
The Intercept revealed on Monday that the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) held a summit with the Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey in 2014 in an attempt to join forces against Saudi Arabia. The disclosure that two sides held a summit is included in a leaked archive of secret Iranian intelligence reports obtained by the American news organization. One of the most important things the two sides shared was considering Saudi Arabia “the common enemy” of the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, said The Intercept. The Muslim Brotherhood was represented in the meeting by three of its most prominent leaders in exile: Ibrahim Munir Mustafa, Mahmoud El-Abiary, and Youssef Moustafa Nada, according to the document. What neither side knew was that there was a spy in the summit. Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, MOIS, a rival of the Revolutionary Guards within the Iranian national security apparatus, secretly had an agent in the meeting who reported everything that was discussed. The Muslim Brotherhood delegation opened the meeting with a boast, pointing out that the outfit “has organizations in 85 countries in the world.”“Differences between Iran as a symbol and representative of the Shiite world and the Muslim Brotherhood as a representative of the Sunni world are indisputable,” the Brotherhood members noted, according to the MOIS cable. But they emphasized that there “should be a focus on joint grounds for cooperation.”Perhaps, the Brotherhood delegation said, the two sides could join forces against the Saudis. The best place to do that was in Yemen.“In Yemen, with the influence of Iran on Houthis and the influence of the Brotherhood on the armed tribal Sunni factions, there should be a joint effort to decrease the conflict between Houthis and Sunni tribes to be able to use their strength against Saudi Arabia,” the Brotherhood delegation argued. There were public meetings and contacts between Iranian and Egyptian officials while Muslim Brotherhood-backed Mohammed Morsi was president of Egypt from 2012 to 2013, said The Intercept.The Iranian intelligence cable about the 2014 meeting provides an intriguing glimpse at a secret effort by the Muslim Brotherhood and Iranian officials to maintain contact — and determine whether they could still work together — after Morsi was removed from power.

New US Ambassador in Cairo after Post Left Vacant for 2 Years
Cairo - Mohamed Nabil Helmy/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
The new US Ambassador to Cairo, Jonathan Cohen, has presented his credentials at the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, two years after the post was left vacant, the US embassy announced on Sunday.
His position had been vacant since July 2017 after former ambassador Robert Stephen Beecroft completed his three-year assignment. Cohen was sworn in as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Egypt on November 14. From January 1 until September 10 he served as the Acting Representative of the United States to the United Nations and before that and since, as Deputy Representative to the United Nations. Previously, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs covering Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, and as Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy in Iraq. He was Acting Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy in France and prior to that, Minister Counselor for Political Affairs there. Cohen also served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Cyprus and as Counselor for Political-Military Affairs at the US Embassy in Italy. Earlier in his career he was the USAID Coordinator and Economic Officer for the West Bank. The diplomat speaks French, Swedish and Italian, some Hebrew and is working on his Arabic. Egyptian-American ties have improved in the past years with meetings held between Presidents Donald Trump and Abdel Fatah al-Sisi following Washington's decision in July 2018 to unfreeze $195 million in military aid to Egypt.

Turkey will launch Syria operation if area not cleared of YPG militants
Reuters, Istanbul/Monday, 18 November 2019
Turkey’s foreign minister has said that Ankara would launch an operation in northeast Syria if the area was not cleared of what he called terrorists, broadcaster Haberturk reported on Monday. Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted as saying that United States and Russia had not done what was required under agreements that halted a Turkish operation against the Kurdish YPG militia in northeastern Syria last month.The deal stipulated that the YPG, which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, would be removed from a swathe of land bordering Turkey in northeastern Syria.

Khartoum Announces Deal on Filling Renaissance Dam in 7 Years
Khartoum - Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas said on Sunday that Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have agreed on filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) reservoir “over a period of up to seven years.”The Sudanese official said the two-day talks held on November 15 in Addis Ababa between the three states and in the presence of representatives from the US and the World Bank, made progress on some disputed issues. He said a breakthrough in the talks was reached over the hydroelectric dam, which has generated much tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over the past few years. Ethiopia insists the $4 billion hydro-electric barrage is essential for its economic growth given that most of its population still lives without electricity. Abbas said last week’s negotiations also tackled the “permanent operations of the dam and its effect on the dam systems in Egypt and Sudan.”
While the spokesperson of the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohammed al-Sibai refused to confirm or deny the Sudanese minister’s comments, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Addis Ababa talks discussed filling the dam’s reservoir in stages and based on the hydraulic system of the Blue Nile River. He said that such technique would help prevent any harm to downstream countries. Representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are set to meet on December 2-3 in Cairo to continue technical talks over outstanding matters. On Saturday, Ethiopian Ambassador to Egypt Dina Mufti told Asharq Al-Awsat that any misunderstanding between Egypt and Ethiopia should be solved peacefully. Egypt states that all Nile Valley countries have a right to economic development. However, Cairo insists that this policy should not affect “its interests and rights in the Nile,” particularly that Egypt relies on the river to cover more than 90 percent of its irrigation and drinking water needs. Meanwhile, the president of the Arab Parliament Mishaal bin Fahm Al-Salami said Sunday he had sent a written message to the Ethiopian prime minister and the head of the Ethiopian House of Peoples’ Representatives announcing the Arab Parliament’s solidarity with Egypt and Sudan in protecting their water security. In a post on his official Twitter account, Salami stressed the importance of reaching a fair agreement on filling and operating the GERD as soon as possible, and in a way that protects the interests of all parties.

Sisi in Berlin to Attend G20-Initiative Compact with Africa
Berlin - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi kicked off on Sunday an official visit to Berlin to participate in the high-level dialogue of the G20-Initiative Compact with Africa (CwA). The Initiative was initiated by the German presidency in 2017 with 12 African countries, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Morocco, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo and Tunisia, to promote private investment in the developing continent. Egyptian presidential spokesperson Bassam Radi said Sisi is expected to hold a series of meetings on the sidelines of the visit, including the investment forum and several meetings with German businesses in various fields. An Egyptian-German summit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel is planned for Tuesday. The Egyptian President would meet with this German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier and President of the Bundestag Wolfgang Schäuble. Sisi is also expected to attend a meeting between Steinmeir and attending African leaders. Radi said CwA aims at supporting economic cooperation between African countries and G-20 member states. Egypt heads the G20-Initiative for this year. The Compact with Africa High-Level Conference and G20 Investment Summit will convene on November 19. On Monday evening, the Egyptian President is expected to attend a business dinner hosted by the German President for the G20 member states. MENA quoted Egypt's new Ambassador to Berlin Khaled Galal as saying that a number of agreements will be signed between Cairo and Berlin on financial and technical cooperation. “This in addition to a cooperative project between the Egyptian Ministry of Antiquities and the German Bundestag that will provide €12 million to upgrade and develop the Egyptian Akhenaton Museum in Minya," the ambassador revealed.

Egypt at risk of US sanctions over purchase of Russian fighter jets: US official
Reuters, Dubai/Monday, 18 November 2019
Egypt’s purchase of Russian fighter jets puts it at risk of US sanctions and endangers future acquisitions of US equipment, a US state department official said on Monday. Egypt is aware of those risks, US Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs R. Clarke Cooper said at the Dubai Airshow.

Germany, France Urge Iran to Respect Freedom of Expression
Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 18/2019
Berlin on Monday urged Iran to respect the "legitimate" protests against a petrol price hike, open talks with the demonstrators and respect freedom of expression. "It is legitimate and deserving of our respect when people courageously air their economic and political grievances, as is currently happening in Iran," said Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer. "The Iranian government should respond to the current protests with a willingness to engage in dialogue," she told a regular press conference, adding that Germany was following the events "with concern". "We urge the government in Tehran to respect freedom of assembly and expression."The French foreign ministry separately said it was "closely following" the events in Iran. France reiterates the need "to respect freedom of expression and the right to peaceful protest," a foreign ministry spokeswoman said. At least two people have died in violent riots that have swept across some 100 cities and towns in Iran since Friday, sparked by a decision to impose petrol price hikes and rationing in the sanctions-hit country. Major roads have been blocked, banks torched and public buildings attacked in the nationwide unrest. Footage of the violence showing masked young men on debris-strewn streets setting buildings ablaze has been aired on state television, which rarely shows any signs of dissent in the country. Rioters have set fire to gas stations, attacked banks and robbed stores. Germany on Sunday tightened its travel advice for Iran, warning citizens to avoid demonstrations and large gatherings and refrain from expressing political opinions to strangers.

Trump is Distancing Himself from Netanyahu, Israeli Media
Tel Aviv /Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 18/2019
President Donald Trump decided to distance himself from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his frustration with Israel’s ongoing political deadlock, according to officials in Tel Aviv. The officials who spoke to Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper Sunday, indicated that the Trump administration is “discouraged and frustrated” by Israel’s ongoing political crisis and the US president is deeply disappointed with the Israeli PM. According to sources, Trump has decided to distance himself from Netanyahu after his failure to secure a clear victory in the April 9 elections and form a government, despite the assistance Israel’s leader received from the president. “The president doesn’t like losers,” said a White House source. Before the elections, Netanyahu was invited to the White House and Trump officially recognized the Golan Heights as Israel’s sovereign territory. He also designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. Not to mention that Trump previously recognized Jerusalem as an Israeli capital and moved the US embassy to the city. During the election campaign ahead of the September 17 vote, Trump’s behavior toward Netanyahu changed. He did not offer any gifts to the PM nor did he make statements and promises, except a tweet on forming a joint defense alliance with Israel. The newspaper linked that information with the statement of former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson two months ago during an event at Harvard University that Netanyahu “played” Trump on several occasions by providing him with incorrect information despite the strong relations between US and Israel. Tillerson indicated that “it's always useful to carry a healthy amount of skepticism” when holding discussions with Netanyahu.“It bothers me that an ally that's that close and important to us would do that to us.”

Netanyahu: Minority government would be a gift for Iran, Hamas
Kobi Nachshoni, Yuval Karni|/Ynetnews/November, 18/2019
The prime minister, who spoke at an 'emergency summit' of right-wing bloc, also lashed out at Blue and White co-founder Yair Lapid, saying he’d be ‘wearing shtreimel and putting on tefillin’ if it ultra-Orthodox agreed to join his faction Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday said a minority government relient on Arab parties would be a “dream come true” for the terror groups Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as their sponsor Iran. His comments came with just hours left for his political rival, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, to form a coalition. Speaking at an “emergency summit” attended by all right-wing bloc factions, the prime minister reiterated the notion that a Gantz-led minority government that would include the Arab-dominated Joint List could pose a threat to Israel’s security. "A minority government supported by the Arabs is a dream government for Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran,” said Netanyahu. “In Ramallah and Tehran they will be celebrating. And there is a real possibility that within the next 48 hours a minority government will be formed."
He went on to emphasize he doesn’t intend to ostracize Israel’s Arab community but rather “the MKs who want support terrorism and organizations that aim to destroy Israel. I am not just crying wolf, there is indeed a wolf.”
Netanyahu also lashed at the Blue and White party and its leaders, saying MK Yair Lapid would welcome the ultra-Orthodox parties with open arms into their coalition government.
“Members of the ultra-Orthodox factions can attest to the talks they’ve had with them (Blue and White), Yair Lapid was ready to wear a shtreimel (fur hat worn by married Haredi Jewish men) and put on tefillin to make the parties join him.”Gantz then responded to Netanyahu’s remarks, urging him to stop “lashing out at Arab MKs,” and called on Israel’s leader to return to the negotiating table in an effort to form a broad unity government

Israel's Gantz Races to Form Government
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 18/2019
After weeks of talks over a new Israeli government have gone around in circles, Benjamin Netanyahu's rival Benny Gantz had just two days left Monday to form a coalition and become prime minister. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party and Gantz's centrist Blue and White coalition achieved near parity in September's repeat elections, but even with allied parties both fell short of the 61 seats needed to form a majority in parliament. Netanyahu was first given 28 days to form a coalition government but failed, so President Reuven Rivlin granted Gantz a similar timeframe. It is due to expire at 11:59 pm on Wednesday, and the former army chief has been engaged in a negotiation blitz in a bid to avoid a third general election in a year. Polls in April also led to a stalemate in a political system reliant on coalition building. Gantz's task may have been further complicated by a flareup between Israel and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip last week, as his potential premiership likely rests on Arab support in parliament. Gantz has been desperately trying to convince Avigdor Lieberman, head of the nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, to join his coalition.But even if he did they would fall short of a majority -- needing at least the tacit support of the Arab Joint List, which has 13 seats, to govern.
'Arab government'
The Arab parties would be unlikely to take ministries but could support a minority Gantz government in key votes in Israel's parliament, the Knesset.
But Lieberman, a rightwinger known for his tough rhetoric towards Gaza, has reiterated his opposition to allying with Arabs. The former nightclub bouncer has been a defiant kingmaker, with his eight parliamentary seats potentially enough to put Netanyahu or Gantz into power. Netanyahu, facing losing office for the first time since 2009, has upped his anti-Arab rhetoric in a seeming bid to increase pressure on Lieberman. On Sunday he warned of a "dangerous government" backed by parties that "support terrorist organisations." Gantz, Lieberman and Netanyahu all supported the Israeli assassination of an Islamic Jihad leader in Gaza that prompted a deadly flareup last week, while the Joint List opposed it. "The Arabs ... are not Zionists and do not support Israel. To be dependent on them all the time, especially at the present time, is an enormous danger to Israel," Netanyahu said during a demonstration against a minority government. Gideon Rahat, a political science professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said negotiations were likely to go down to the final moments. "(Gantz and Netanyahu) are playing games, trying to pressure each other," he said. "There are a lot of rumors, and it is a game of pressure -- so I don't know what the end result will be."Israeli Arabs are the descendants of Palestinians who remained on their land when Israel was created in 1948 and constitute nearly a fifth of the country's population. They have full legal rights but complain of discrimination and incitement against them in the predominantly Jewish country.
21 days
A range of scenarios remain and are likely to be played out in frantic negotiations behind closed doors. Lieberman could ultimately backtrack and cut a deal with Netanyahu, or he could throw his weight behind Gantz and form a minority government. "Does Gantz himself want to lead such a government? The answer is no," a columnist in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said Monday. And Lieberman, it added, "certainly doesn't want any form of partnership with (the Arabs). But does he have a better option?"If Gantz is unable to cut a deal by Wednesday, lawmakers have 21 days to propose a candidate capable of forming a majority to the president. There is also a joker in the pack –- with Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit expected to decide by December whether to charge Netanyahu over corruption allegations he denies. An indictment might permanently damage Netanyahu's support, whereas a reprieve could give him a new lease of life. If the 21 days pass without a breakthrough, a third election becomes inevitable.

US blacklists companies, people for support of ISIS
Reuters, Washington/Monday, 18 November 2019
The United States on Monday imposed sanctions on four companies and two people operating in Syria, Turkey, the Gulf and Europe for providing financial and logistical support to ISIS. The targets were blacklisted under an executive order that imposes sanctions on terrorists and those who have provided assistance or support for terrorists, the US Treasury Department said. Turkey-based Sahloul Money Exchange Company, Al-Sultan Money Transfer Company and ACL Ithalat Ihracat were targeted for providing financial and logistical support to ISIS, as were Turkish nationals Ismail Bayaltun and his brother Ahmet Bayaltun. The Afghanistan-based Nejaat Social Welfare Organization and two of its senior officials, Sayed Habib Ahmad Khan and Rohullah Wakil, was also targeted for supporting activities of the ISIS branch in Afghanistan. In a statement, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin characterized the move as a follow-up pressure tactic on the terrorist group after a US special forces operations killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. “Following the highly successful operation against al-Baghdadi, the Trump administration is resolved to completely destroy ISIS’s remaining network of terror cells,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, using an acronym for the group. The sanctions freeze any US assets held by those targeted and prohibit Americans from doing business with them.

Three dead in Oklahoma Walmart shooting: US media
 NNA/November 16/2019
 Three people were killed in a shooting early Monday at a Walmart store in Duncan, Oklahoma, local media reported citing the state's highway patrol and local police. According to TNN television, Duncan Police Chief Danny Ford said the shooting took place outside the store and the suspect is one of those killed.Schools in the area had been placed on lockdown temporarily before being given an "all clear" by local police, according to a Facebook statement from Duncan Public Schools.--AFP

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2019
Radical Persecution Must Be Eradicated
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/November 18/2019
The captives, some as young as five years old, were reportedly "tortured, starved and sexually abused."
"The government of Pakistan failed to adequately protect these groups, and it perpetrated systematic, ongoing, egregious religious freedom violations; this occurred despite some optimism about the potential for reform under the new government of Prime Minister Imran Khan." — United States Commission on International Religious Freedom's, 2019 Report.
A first step towards eradicating this threat might be establishing an international interfaith coalition of Muslims, Christians and other religions, with chapters in every country, to stand up against religious persecution and on behalf of the right of every individual to harbor beliefs and engage in practices of his or her choosing.
In Pakistan, the abduction of girls and young women for the purpose of forced conversion is commonplace. The victims of kidnappings are mainly Christian and Hindu. The Catholic Archbishop of Lahore, Sebastian Shaw recently expressed alarm at the spike in abductions and forced conversions.
On September 26, Nigerian soldiers liberated more than 300 men and boys -- some as young as five years old -- from what could be called a prison masquerading as an Islamic school in the city of Kaduna in northwestern Nigeria.
"Most of the freed captives seen by a Reuters reporter in the city of Kaduna were children, aged up to their late teens. Some shuffled with their ankles manacled and others were chained by their legs to large metal wheels to prevent escape...
"Reports carried by local media said the captives had been tortured, starved and sexually abused...
"One young man, Hassan Yusuf, said he had been sent to the school because of concerns about his way of life following a few years studying abroad.
"'They said my lifestyle has changed - I've become a Christian, I've left the Islamic way of life,' said Yusuf..."
The "school" -- the Imam Ahmad Bun Hambal Centre for Islamic studies -- "was able to operate undetected in Kaduna city for years."
Faced with the horrors that were uncovered at the facility, some family members of the captive males insisted that they had believed it was a genuine school for teaching the tenets of Islam and the rules of proper behavior.
The raid that rescued the men and boys again brought to the fore the issue of the "Almajiri" Islamic education system in northern Nigeria, which was "started in the 11th century", and is estimated to have an estimated 7 million to 9.5 million students today. These schools "lack good teachers and a fairly healthy environment. The standards are very low..." Children in Almajiri schools are sometimes considered by the government to be "out-of-school children," and they "are often sent to beg on the streets."
Referring to these schools, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, himself a Muslim, said:
"The issues of health and education are constitutional. If there are too many almajiris in a state, then the government is not following the constitution."
The state government in Kaduna, where the men and boys had been held, "says it will now carry out checks on all Koranic schools across the state. According to the BBC:
"This is an eye-opener for us," said Hafsat Baba, Kaduna State Commissioner of Human Services and Social Development. She added that if this scale of abuse was happening in the main city, she didn't know what might be going on in rural areas.
"We have to map all the schools. And we have to make sure that if they violate the government orders then they have to be closed down completely"...
On October 12, Nigerian police rescued "nearly 70 men and boys from a second purported Islamic school where they were shackled and subjected to 'inhuman and degrading treatments.'"
"The raid in Katsina, the northwestern home state of President Muhammadu Buhari, came less than a month after about 300 men and boys were freed from another supposed Islamic school in neighbouring Kaduna state where they were allegedly tortured and sexually abused...
"Lawal Ahmad, a 33-year-old who was held captive, said he witnessed sexual assault, beatings and the death of other captives during his two years there."
The government investigations may reveal the existence of many additional prisons pretending to be legitimate Islamic schools.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan, the abduction of girls and young women for the purpose of forced conversion is commonplace. The victims of kidnappings are mainly Christian and Hindu. The Catholic Archbishop of Lahore, Sebastian Shaw, recently expressed alarm at the spike in abductions and forced conversions to Islam -- and forced marriage to Muslims -- of young Pakistani girls from these two religious minorities.
According to the Catholic organization, Aid to the Church in Need (ACN), "research in Pakistan indicates that up to 700 girls were kidnapped in one year alone."
"[Archbishop Shaw] said that in response to the increase in abductions, Christian leaders took the problem to the police "but they were not listening" so they went straight to the government. 'We raised it with the government and they took up the matter. Along with the Islamic council, they arranged a meeting with myself and leaders from the Muslim and Hindu communities. I participated in the meeting... One young Islamic scholar criticised the kidnappings and said forced conversions are not allowed.'
"Despite this, Archbishop Shaw was optimistic about the future of Pakistan, seeing the current government, headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan, as moving in the right direction. He said: 'The present government are working on equality. All people should have a sense of belonging.'"
Nevertheless, according to the latest annual report of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF):
In 2018, religious freedom conditions in Pakistan generally trended negative despite the Pakistani government taking some positive steps to promote religious freedom and combat religiously motivated violence and hate speech. During the year, extremist groups and societal actors continued to discriminate against and attack religious minorities, including Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Ahmadis, and Shi'a Muslims. The government of Pakistan failed to adequately protect these groups, and it perpetrated systematic, ongoing, egregious religious freedom violations; this occurred despite some optimism about the potential for reform under the new government of Prime Minister Imran Khan."
The findings above seem to indicate that not much has changed in Pakistan in the years since the murder in 2011 of the governor of the Punjab Province, Salman Taseer, presumably for his having condemned the country's blasphemy laws and for his defense of Asia Bibi. Bibi, a Christian woman sentenced to death in 2010 for blasphemy, was finally released in October 2018.
Two months after Taseer's murder, Pakistan's Minister of Religious Minorities, Shahbaz Bhatti, a Christian, was assassinated after "urging reform to blasphemy laws."
The abuses committed by radical Islamists against Muslims and non-Muslims alike is not merely a crime; it is a global threat. A first step towards eradicating this threat might be establishing an international interfaith coalition of Muslims, Christians and other religions, with chapters in every country, to stand up against religious persecution and on behalf of the right of every individual to harbor beliefs and engage in practices of his or her choosing.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Soviet Wrinkles in the Face of the Iranian Regime
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 18/2019
A scene from the Soviet past may help explain some aspects of the current situation in Iran despite the different theaters and circumstances.
In the last week of February 1986, the world turned its attention to the Kremlin, on the occasion of the 27th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party.
The world was eagerly awaiting the first wide-scale appearance of the party’s secretary-general, Mikhail Gorbachev. The party’s seniors, were forced to resort to him a year before, after losing hope with the successive funerals of aging leaders.
I was among the journalists who came to Moscow to cover the event. Everything was suggesting strength in the big arena. The “Kremlin boy” sat on a podium, where top leaders of Eastern Europe and allied and friendly countries were gathered, including Fidel Castro and Mengistu Haile Mariam. Party members from all over the world, with generals from the socialist camp loaded with medals, were sitting in the hall.
The empire was armed to the teeth and Lenin had enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world many times. No one ever imagined that the Soviet Union would disappear from the map five years later, and that the Red Army and the KGB would not succeed in repelling its death.
At that conference, Gorbachev, aware of the aging of the regime, launched two magic words: transparency and reconstruction, with the purpose of reconciling with the realities of the times. The fossilized system could not tolerate an attempt to develop from within. Opening this window was like attracting the storm that pushed the system to its rubble.
On the sidelines of the conference, a Moscow-based colleague told me that the security services had launched a harsh campaign weeks ago to drive beggars out of the streets of Moscow. The state neither recognizes the existence of Soviet beggars seven decades after the victory of the revolution, nor does it want visitors and comrades to see begging scenes.
I was struck by this subject, especially when I saw the police rushing to expel an old woman, who was trying to sell a bar of soap to someone in the queues waiting to visit the Lenin shrine. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it became clear that it fell more because of economic failure than by the absence of freedoms. It also fell because the average citizen no longer believed the stiff vocabulary of the official dictionary. Moreover, the Soviet Union expanded to a level that exceeded the economy’s capacity, by financing allies and proxies.
The Iranian revolution came from a different dictionary than that of the Bolshevik revolt. Its starting points are different, as are its mechanisms and references. But that does not preclude some comparisons. The Russian revolution aspired to a major coup d'état at the global level. The Iranian revolution dreamed of organizing a major coup against the balances that existed in the region. The former engaged shaking entities across the borders, while the second was incorporated as a fixed clause in the constitution.
The first claimed to be seeking to build a new human being, and the second almost pretended the same.
The first infiltrated the maps through the communist parties. The second intervened through sectarian relations or opposition platforms. The first moved its guns, recorded new conquests in the world and increased its burdens. The second went to catch four Arab capitals, and its burdens also augmented. The former practiced a policy of destabilization and wars through proxies, which the second did not hesitate to practice.
The first deliberately attempted to set fire to the American flag, and the second ignited the line of contact with the “Great Satan.”
The divorce in the Soviet Union between the revolution and the new generations is evident in Iran today. This divorce is exacerbated by the flow of information, news and images as a result of the communications revolution.
In recent weeks, protests in Iraq and Lebanon have raised the subject of the Iranian thread that is strongly present in the two capitals.
Tehran has succeeded in exporting its influence to some countries in the region, but has been unable to export a successful model of economic management.
Because of Iran’s strong presence in decision-making positions in Baghdad and Beirut, it seemed that the demand for a modern and natural state in both countries would inevitably mean curbing Tehran’s grip on both countries.
But the issue looked further complicated when the protests reached Iran, which was believed to be far from the current wave.
It is not the first time that Iranians have taken to the streets to express their anger and disappointment. Iran witnessed protests in 2017, but succeeded in suppressing them, dispersing protesters and circumventing their demands. Before that, it witnessed the “Green Movement” in 2009 after Ahmadinejad won a second term.
But what is new is that Iran is going through the worst economic crisis since the revolution, because of the re-imposition of US sanctions following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.
The crisis is worsened by the waning European role, on which Iran was betting to compensate for the American exit.
It is clear that the Iranian regime, which refused to understand the messages behind the protests in Iraq and Lebanon, categorically refuses to listen to the demands of the Iranian protesters.
Iranian officials were quick to talk of intended harm directed by external forces to justify the suppression of protests. Difficulties in Iran are serious and real. They threaten its economy and its ability to pursue its role in the region. It is hard to believe that the country will recognize that the transition from revolution to a normal state is inevitable to avoid the collapse or the endless clashes. Iran, in response, could run forward by igniting external fires.
Revolutions become weary with no real relevance to the new generations, unless the figures can confirm that people’s lives have improved under them.
The Soviet Union invaded space and aimed its missiles at all continents, but fell into the internal battle of numbers.
Slogans can no longer convince the average citizens to tighten the belt again and again. They are asking about their right to a better life, their income and retirement. They no longer believe the figures of the five-year plan nor the results of the ritualistic elections.
When it is impossible for the citizens to express their discontent in public for fear of repression, they resort to forms of negative resistance at work and become cynical.
The party’s attractiveness recedes, and brainwashing strategies falter.

Claims Iran is not an aggressor refuted by the facts
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/November 18/2019
Iranian politicians have repeatedly insisted that Iran has not started a war or invaded any other country in centuries. They claim that the last war waged by Iran was in the 18th century, when it invaded India under Nader Shah. These statements are made to highlight the claim that Iran seeks peace and is not an aggressor. Responding to comments by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about Iran’s belligerence, Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in September tweeted that Iran is a “millennia-old nation that hasn’t attacked anyone for centuries.” Similarly, Zarif claimed in a 2016 Twitter post that Iran hasn’t attacked any other country in 250 years.
This article aims to decisively refute these false claims in order to expose the Iranian regime’s typically underhanded and deliberate play on words. I will focus on the theocratic regime that took power after the popular 1979 revolution that toppled the shah. Almost immediately after the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War broke out, lasting for eight years from 1980 to 1988. Although Iran claims that the Iraqi regime was responsible for starting the conflict, realities suggest that this war was planned before the revolution and was instigated by the Iranian side. There are undisputed historical incidents proving this.
The war with Iraq served many objectives for the theocratic regime in Tehran, in particular to “export the Iranian revolution” and its hard-line ideology to neighboring countries, as well as to heighten Iranian nationalism and impede the growth of any domestic resistance — opposition had begun to grow soon after the clerics took power, as they failed to fulfill the promises they had made to the Iranian people. For the then-Supreme Leader and founder of the “Islamic Republic” Ruhollah Khomeini, this war was a perfect opportunity, which he was keen not to waste despite regional attempts to end the conflict very early on.
Throughout the war, Khomeini continued repeating the slogan that “the road to Jerusalem passes through Karbala” — a clear indication that the Iranian regime was attempting to occupy Iraq and Jordan in order to reach the occupied Palestinian territories and annex those as well. Eight long years after the bloody conflict began, Khomeini, having failed to achieve his goal, was forced to sign an agreement to bring the war to an end. He said that acceding to this agreement was akin to “drinking the cup of poison.” This war of attrition led Iranian politicians to realize that it would be impossible for them to export the Iranian revolution via the army or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) alone.
All these militias across the region are fully controlled by and take their orders from Iran, receiving financial, military and logistical support.
As a result, the leaders looked for alternative strategies to achieve their expansionist project in the Arab region. One possibility emerged with a theory devised by Mohammed-Javad Larijani entitled, “The Theory of Umm Al-Qura.” This suggested that the city of Qom be designated as the global Islamic capital and Tehran as the political capital of the Islamic world. Unfortunately for the regime, this theory was stillborn in terms of practice and implementation: There was and is no way to convince 1.5 billion Muslims around the world to accept Qom as an alternative to the sacred Islamic capital of Makkah. Without being able to achieve this ambitious objective, the aim of making Tehran the political capital of the Islamic world could only be a daydream.
The Iranian leadership wasted no time in coming up with a new strategy: Shiite geopolitics. This depended on exploiting Shiite minorities in the Arab world to help implement the regime’s expansionist agenda; with this strategy achieving significant success in Lebanon via Hezbollah. Tehran worked to recreate the Lebanese Hezbollah model in several other countries, including Hezbollah Al-Hejaz, the Wefaq militias and others in Bahrain, and some of the more easily influenced clans in Yemen, notably the Houthis. Iran’s regime enlisted the services of Badr Al-Din Al-Houthi and then his two sons Hussein and Abdel-Malik. After the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, Iran worked to establish several militias there. It also formed militias in Pakistan, Afghanistan and even Nigeria.
The foremost mission of these militias is to implement the Iranian expansionist project in the Arab region. Through the use of these proxy militias, Iran kills two birds with one stone. As well as providing the regime with a useful pressure card, these sectarian militias destabilize targeted countries, weaken their social fabric and play on sectarian fault lines. These militias also provide Iran’s regime with “plausible deniability,” enabling it to avoid direct blame for their nefarious activities. This strategy is also less costly than relying on the Iranian army. More importantly, from the regime’s perspective, it avoids risking Iranian lives as it did during the Iran-Iraq War. Instead it uses gullible Arabs to kill fellow Arabs and serve the Iranian expansionist project under different guises.
All these conclusively proven facts affirm without a doubt that the Iranian regime’s claims, promoted by its officials and affiliated media, that it has not invaded any nation or initiated aggression in centuries are false and a distortion of realities on the ground. All these militias across the region are fully controlled by and take their orders from Iran, receiving financial, military and logistical support, as well as training from the IRGC, as part of the regime’s larger plan for regional expansionism.
Some years ago, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, admitted that the movement is a part of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, i.e., the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recently, Nasrallah admitted that the movement’s edibles, salaries and weapons all come from Iran. Furthermore, a senior commander within the IRGC, Nasser Shabani, admitted that the Iranian regime had asked the Houthis to target two Saudi ships in the Arabian Sea, which they did. Similarly, Watheq Al-Battat, who heads the so-called Hezbollah in Iraq, said recently that, if a war breaks out between Iraq and Iran, “I will be on the side of Iran.”
One of the Iranian regime’s senior regional agents is Iraq’s Hadi Al-Amiri, a close associate of Qassem Soleimani and who now heads Iraq’s Badr Organization. Al-Amiri led an IRGC infantry regiment during the Iran-Iraq War and subsequently became a senior official in the IRGC’s intelligence department, taking part in its Badr operations in 1985. Al-Amiri also took over managing the Iranian regime’s movements inside Iraq under Soleimani’s guidance and, until recently, occupied a senior position within the Popular Mobilization Units, the Iraqi edition of the IRGC.
Bearing in mind all of the aforementioned facts and given the Iranian regime’s more overt involvement in ongoing regional wars, such as in Syria and Yemen, can the Iranian regime seriously claim that it has never invaded any country or initiated aggression in centuries? The answer to this is up to the honorable readers.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Information a key weapon as Iran clamps down on protests
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 18/2019
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies, on Sunday weighed in regarding the latest protests in the capital Tehran and dozens of other Iranian cities.
Predictably, Khamenei sought to blame “thugs” and “enemies” of the Islamic Republic for instigating and directing the activities in upwards of 60 cities and towns. Khamenei said on state television: “The counter-revolution and Iran’s enemies have always supported sabotage and breaches of security and continue to do so. Unfortunately some problems were caused, a number of people lost their lives and some centers were destroyed.”
Khamenei stepped forward with his usual efforts to discredit the popular slogans, which included bold chants such as “death to the dictator.” The regime’s response has reportedly already resulted in more than 10 deaths and hundreds of arrests. The ayatollah’s modus operandi has always been anchored in evading accountability and deflecting attention by pointing a finger at “enemies.”
In addition, Khamenei’s decision to deliver a speech so soon after the protests started was aimed at preventing Iran’s parliament from holding discussions to find ways to reverse last week’s decision to hike gas prices. The Iranian lawmakers were supposed to meet early this week in a bid to push the government to revise its decision.
From Khamenei’s perspective, concession means weakness. That is why he is refusing to back down despite the calls of two well-known and authoritative grand ayatollahs, Safi Golpayegani and Alavi Gorgani, for the government to reverse the price rise.
When such widespread protests erupt in Iran, the international community must strongly express its concerns about the subsequent crackdown, especially after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enters provinces that are hotbeds of anti-government activities. It may be recalled that the IRGC was instrumental in the violent suppression of the nationwide protests of late 2018.
The IRGC’s domestic power continues to grow, and its outsized influence over the Iranian judiciary has allowed it to effectively predetermine the outcomes of cases it initiates against political and human rights activists. Iran’s Revolutionary Court is also known to impose fear among the public by declaring that death penalties could be waiting for those who are arrested for protesting in opposition to the government.
Global powers have a responsibility to outline a policy that will support the calls for freedom and democracy in Iran.
During such crises in Iran, the international community must push for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in order to address the brutal suppression of civilians. The agenda for such a meeting would represent an opportunity to showcase a policy that should include, as a minimum, serious multinational efforts to deny the Iranian regime the tools to halt the flow of information within the country or out of it.
International powers must also issue statements of support for the Iranian people. The US has made several such statements, all without lending credence to the ridiculous claims about the foreign origins of the demonstrations. In a statement issued on Sunday, the White House press secretary said: “We condemn the lethal force and severe communications restrictions used against demonstrators. Tehran has fanatically pursued nuclear weapons and missile programs, and supported terrorism, turning a proud nation into another cautionary tale of what happens when a ruling class abandons its people.”
However, far from intervening directly, the US has so far offered little to the protesters other than expressions of moral support. This is certainly important, as it helps to keep the world’s attention focused on the Iranian government’s response, potentially forestalling the severe crackdowns that might otherwise be condemned only after the fact. But the US and other global powers have a responsibility to outline a policy that will actually support the calls for freedom and democracy in Iran.
This policy should include offering internet access and other means of communication to the protesters. This must happen quickly. In order to prevent the people from organizing, protesting and sharing news, the Iranian regime quickly utilizes its tactic of cutting off modes of communication by various means, such as shutting down all internet access in the country.
By shutting down the internet, the Iranian leaders are attempting to manipulate the narrative. That is why Western governments must do everything in their power to counter the regime’s claims that the protests are not widespread and that only “thugs” have participated. Foreign broadcasts ought to vigorously address such fabrications — otherwise, these are the only narratives that the people will hear. In a manner of speaking, information is a powerful weapon in and of itself.
The US and its allies could provide tremendous support for the Iranian people simply by helping to make sure that resources such as the internet remain available to them. In this way, the protests will remain what they have always been: A true expression of the Iranian people’s demands for democracy and freedom.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Israelis and militants killing off any chance of peace
Chris Doyle/Arab News/November 18/2019
How often has a conflagration over Gaza kicked off with an Israeli extrajudicial assassination? This time it was Abu Al-Atta, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader. Another attack in Damascus — which many believe to be Israeli handiwork — aimed for Akram Al-Ajouri, the No. 2 in Islamic Jihad. Israel has assassinated its foes at home and abroad, with zero attempts at any judicial process, oversight or accountability. Are Israelis any safer? Almost certainly not.
The difference in recent years is that much of the rest of the world’s military powers, led by the US, have also adopted this practice, often using drones. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi may have committed suicide, but who would be surprised if the US Marines did not have a kill order, just like those involved in the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Does it work? The results are highly dubious. Militants in Gaza have had zero difficulty in regenerating new leadership cadres, nor have Al-Qaeda or Daesh. Who decides on who lives and who dies is therefore extremely problematic. A powerful leader authorizes it with few fears of consequences. Using this flawed policy, Hamas could order the assassination of much of the Israeli leadership, its military wing and anyone else accused of war crimes against Palestinians; the collective punishment of Gazans being just one.
The assassination is typically the start of bloodshed, not the end of it. Who would be shocked if, in the months ahead, Daesh commits atrocities in retribution for the death of its leader? In the case of Gaza, every major assassination results in rockets, mortars and a devastating Israeli “response.”
In a region of uncertainties, one certainty stands out: Israel will bomb Gaza again, and Islamist militants will rocket and mortar Israel.
Five years without an Israeli war on Gaza is, for this century at least, remarkable. Is Israel cutting back? The Netanyahu government has opted for shorter but more regular “mowing of the lawn,” as the charming Israeli phrase goes. In public relations terms, this has advantages. A short-term flare up killing 34 Palestinians only just registers on the media radar, whereas a three-week exercise in Gaza-flattening invited world opprobrium.
Islamist militants may back off from provoking any cataclysmic Israeli onslaught. Hamas was at pains to distance itself from the actions of PIJ, whose fighters were responsible for the hundreds of rockets fired into Israel last week.
In a region of uncertainties, one certainty stands out: Israel will bomb Gaza again, and Islamist militants will rocket and mortar Israel.
What does this say about Hamas? It restricted its actions to launching two rockets at Beer Sheva on Saturday, in part to demonstrate it was not collaborating with Israel. If PIJ rockets and mortars Israel, the Hamas leadership is under pressure from its rank and file fighters and supporters to follow suit so that it is not outdone by its rival in the Islamist ranks.
Some had expected the Israeli political paralysis to make a conflict with Gaza more likely. In the past, this has been the case. At present, Benny Gantz only has until Wednesday to form a coalition. Should he fail, it could be back to the polling booths in the new year for a third time in this quest to form a government. Yet the divisions in Israel are not about hitting Gaza, but how hard.
Palestinians in Gaza will be relieved that the Israeli political climate has not led to a more devastating assault. Benjamin Netanyahu was wary of being seen to be attacking Gaza recklessly, and was at pains to ensure all major Israeli leaders were properly briefed, informed and involved. A short two-day attack with the successful elimination of Al-Atta was probably viewed in his terms as a tactical success.
Are we one centimeter closer to resolving the issue of Gaza? No. At best, a mini-move forward might come in the form of some short-term micro-easing of the blockade.
The long-term indicators are incredibly worrying. Both sides dehumanize the other in ever more horrific terms. When he was Israeli defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman casually stated: “There are no innocent people in the Gaza Strip.” This was not even seen as a controversial statement.
The dehumanization is also in evidence abroad. In the US, Elizabeth Warren was the only one of the Democratic presidential candidates to make reference to the killings of Palestinians, amid a solid bank of support for Israel’s actions. Joe Biden tweeted: “Israel has a right to defend itself against terrorist threats. It is intolerable that Israeli civilians live their lives under the constant fear of rocket attacks. That’s why our administration was such a strong supporter of Israel’s life-saving Iron Dome.” Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did at least reference Palestinians, if not their deaths.
Palestinian militants are also not going anywhere. If anything, their capabilities are on the increase. The rocket ranges are growing, this time landing in the Tel Aviv area. There seems to be little evidence that their weapons arsenals are shrinking. More Israeli civilians come in the range of their fire, including in schools, shopping malls and on highways. Does this achieve anything? The answer has to be no, aside from the obvious immorality and illegality of indiscriminately targeting civilians.
But how does this compare to the never-ending collective punishment of the 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, three-quarters of whom are refugees? Most of these civilians are children, most of whom have known nothing but blockade. They do not know the outside world. The UN has long predicted that, by 2020, Gaza would be uninhabitable. The water is unfit for animal consumption. The inhabitants are on a life-support machine.
They are kept like this so that Israel and the Palestinian extremist militants can achieve one strategic goal — to kill off any chance of peace. The Israeli and Palestinian peace camps are hung out to dry. As long as Gaza is cut off from the rest of Palestine as well as the world, and as long as all that is achieved is long-term cease-fires, serious negotiations to end this conflict are a pipedream.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

Australia wrong to deny Iranian writer Boochani asylum
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 18/2019
Behrouz Boochani is a Kurdish-Iranian journalist and writer who was forced to flee Iran in 2013 for fear of being attacked or arrested for his writing and political beliefs. He wrote about politics, minority rights and Kurdish culture. He co-founded and produced a Kurdish magazine, Werya, which promoted Kurdish culture and politics, but it also gained him unwanted attention from Iran’s secret police and they warned Boochani to stop writing or risk imprisonment.
In February 2013, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps raided the offices of Werya and arrested 11 people working there. Boochani feared that he would be next so went into hiding. His fear was justified, not only because of the arrest of his colleagues at this magazine, but also because of Iran’s continuous crackdown on journalists ever since the revolutionary regime came to power in 1979. The attacks against journalists increased in 2011 and 2012, when at least 47 were imprisoned each year. In 2013, the year Boochani fled, 36 journalists were detained, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists.
Behrouz went into hiding inside Iran until May 2013, when he left the country secretly and tried to seek asylum in Australia. His boat was intercepted by the Australian authorities and, despite his compelling case as a refugee, he was not allowed to land in Australia to have a hearing to determine his status. Instead, he and his fellow travelers were detained, first on Christmas Island and, after one month, in the Manus Island detention center, where Behrouz remained until earlier this month.
He stayed in detention for more than six years. His case was studied by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which determined that Boochani was a bona fide refugee under the UN Refugee Convention. Australia is party to the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol. These define a refugee as a person who has a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, or membership of a particular social group or political opinion. Behrouz fit the criteria, as the UNHCR has determined, but that was not enough to release him from detention.
During his time in detention, Boochani authored several works, including novels, short stories, articles, films and poems. He wrote his book “No Friend But the Mountains: Writing from Manus Prison,” which he sent in small portions to a friend via messages on his smuggled smartphone. He employed the same method in sending out video segments to be included in a documentary about refugee detention facilities.
While in detention, Boochani won a dozen literary, artistic and human rights awards, including some of Australia’s top prizes. One of his latest awards is Australia’s Victorian Prize for Literature for “No Friend But the Mountains.”
Warehousing refugees for years on end in remote islands is not a solution worthy of Australia’s reputation and standing in the world.
In early November, he was granted a one-month visa to visit New Zealand to participate in a literary festival, after which he is required to return to Manus. He has made it clear that he does not want to return there, and he is not confident that a US offer to take him in is still valid now that he is out of the detention center. Earlier, the US had offered to take in 150 refugees annually from Australia’s detention centers.
Australian refugee advocates have long criticized their country’s refugee policy, especially the practice established by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott of sending refugees and asylum seekers, against their will, to remote Pacific Islands. A study released this summer by the Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at the University of New South Wales questioned Australia’s refugee policy and suggested several steps to bring it into line with its obligations under international law, as well as making it more sustainable and humane.
Director of the center Jane McAdam said: “Australia is violating many of our international obligations and it is really out of step with what other comparable countries are doing. Every person has a right to seek asylum. As a matter of international law, people who come here in search of protection have not broken the law. Australia is actually breaking the law by not offering people protection when they are in need of it.”
Warehousing refugees for years on end in remote islands is not a solution worthy of Australia’s reputation and standing in the world. It is a throwback to the days when the country implemented discriminatory policies toward refugees and immigrants coming from certain areas. In the case of refugees fleeing Iran, as with Boochani and other ethnic Iranians who are facing persecution because of their ethnicity or political beliefs, the Australian government is quite aware of the human rights violations perpetrated by the Iranian government against its ethnic and religious minorities.
To deny asylum to such a worthy figure as Boochani not only violates Australia’s obligations under international law, but also deprives Australians of his talents and the diversity he brings. If either New Zealand or the US offers him asylum instead, it is they who would be the winners.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1

Few in America enamored by Trump’s praise for Erdogan
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/November 18/2019
US President Donald Trump last week hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House. The meeting and the press conference that followed highlighted Trump’s affinity with Erdogan — something that few others in Washington share. Many in Congress, the media and foreign policy think tanks criticized Trump’s comments at the press conference. A bipartisan group of members of Congress had even asked Trump to cancel the meeting.
The US-Turkey relationship is at a particularly low point, but Trump and Erdogan appeared to have a warm meeting. Trump said that he is “a big fan” of Erdogan and praised him for the cease-fire in northern Syria and for Turkey’s contributions to NATO.
There are few defenders of Trump’s policy toward Turkey, but they make some clear arguments. His defenders argue that Trump’s close relationship with Erdogan is an essential bridge to a key ally at a time when the bilateral relationship is struggling. Some assert that the relationship is the only thing preventing a total collapse of US-Turkey relations. Some say that Trump is trying to end “forever wars” and that it is in US interests to allow Turkey to manage northern Syria. Some of Trump’s defenders note that he and Erdogan have not always agreed, such as last month, when Trump threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy if it did not stop attacks on the Kurds.
There are some in Washington who acknowledge Turkey’s point of view. They note that Ankara has long been angry with the US for its alliance with the Syrian Kurds, which Turkey sees as terrorists; for its refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen, who Turkey accuses of planning the 2016 attempted coup against Erdogan; for its prosecution of Turkey’s Halkbank for alleged violations of US sanctions against Iran; and the recent passage of a House of Representatives resolution to formally recognize the Armenian genocide.
However, even among those who see Turkey as an important ally, critics of Trump’s Turkey policy — and particularly his meeting and press conference with Erdogan — are far more numerous and unusually bipartisan. It is not unusual to see strong criticism of Trump’s foreign policy in the media and among foreign policy experts in Washington think tanks. It is unusual to see multiple Democratic and Republican members of Congress openly criticize the president. The willingness of several Republicans in Congress to criticize the president on the same day that impeachment hearings were underway is indicative of how strongly many Republicans oppose Trump’s approach toward Erdogan.
There is a widespread view in Washington that Erdogan is not making any concessions in exchange for Trump’s praise.
One of the two biggest issues for Erdogan’s critics in Washington is Turkey’s military offensive against the Syrian Kurds, who were essential allies of the US in fighting Daesh. Even Republicans widely condemned Trump’s apparent acquiescence to Erdogan’s plans to attack the Kurds; and the subsequent cease-fire did little to dampen the criticism. The widespread view in Washington is that Trump abandoned a genuine ally and jeopardized years of counterterrorism work in Syria. The other major issue is Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. Turkey’s possession of the Russian system could undermine the effectiveness of NATO’s advanced weapons systems and potentially leak important weapons information to Russia.
Among other concerns, there are many in Washington who are deeply worried about Erdogan’s erosion of Turkish democracy, including extensive human rights violations and Turkey’s ignoble rank as the world’s largest jailer of journalists. Multiple cases of Erdogan’s security guards roughing up protesters and trying to eject journalists from events in Washington have not aided his image in the US capitol.
Some of Trump’s critics want a much tougher approach toward Turkey and active US condemnation of Erdogan’s actions in Syria, relationship with Russia, and political repression. Others might be willing to accept Trump’s friendly approach toward Erdogan if they felt that the US was getting something in exchange. However, there is a widespread view in Washington that Erdogan is not making any concessions in exchange for Trump’s praise, let alone in exchange for Trump’s withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria and his delay of congressionally mandated sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of Russian missile defenses.
Congress is seriously considering further bipartisan sanctions on Turkey for its invasion of northern Syria. And the House resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide was a major symbolic blow to Turkey. While the president remains the key actor in US foreign policy, Congress also has powers that can be significant when there is bipartisan agreement, especially in the Senate.
Erdogan is taking a major gamble by basing his relations with the US entirely on his personal relationship with Trump. He might get lucky — Trump might remain friendly toward him, and he has a good chance of winning another four-year term in 2020. However, any foreign country with long-term interests in the US would be wise to cultivate relationships beyond any particular president, who serves a temporary term and could change his mind about a relationship. Countries that take a more future-oriented view will build relationships with both parties in Congress, and with foreign policy professionals and journalists, in order to ensure that the bilateral relationship can outlast one or two presidential terms.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch