LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 10/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
There is no distinction
between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who
call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved
Letter to the Romans 10/12-21/:’For there is no distinction between Jew and
Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For,
‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.’ But how are they to
call on one in whom they have not believed? And how are they to believe in one
of whom they have never heard? And how are they to hear without someone to
proclaim him? And how are they to proclaim him unless they are sent? As it is
written, ‘How beautiful are the feet of those who bring good news!’ But not all
have obeyed the good news; for Isaiah says, ‘Lord, who has believed our
message?’So faith comes from what is heard, and what is heard comes through the
word of Christ. But I ask, have they not heard? Indeed they have; for ‘Their
voice has gone out to all the earth, and their words to the ends of the world.’
Again I ask, did Israel not understand? First Moses says, ‘I will make you
jealous of those who are not a nation; with a foolish nation I will make you
angry.’ Then Isaiah is so bold as to say, ‘I have been found by those who did
not seek me; I have shown myself to those who did not ask for me.’But of Israel
he says, ‘All day long I have held out my hands to a disobedient and contrary
people.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on November 09-10/2019
Sources: French Envoy to Arrive In Beirut Soon
Lebanese banks urge calm amid financial crisis and protests/Officials said there
was no concern about solvency
Lebanon’s president meets bankers amid liquidity crisis
Aoun during the Baabda Meeting: For adopting necessary measures to meet
citizens’ needs
Union of Bank Employees Syndicates: Extraordinary meeting upcoming Monday to
discuss infringements against staff in many banks' branches
Report: Consumer Prices Up 8% amid Protests
Fuel Shortage, Price Hikes Squeeze Protest-Hit Lebanon
Lebanese banks face threats, Hariri said to want neutral government
Report: Hizbullah, Speaker ‘Fail’ to Persuade Adamant Hariri
Students in Tyre Join Pupils Demos for First Time
Lebanon’s grand mufti calls for protesters’ demands to be met
World Bank Regional Chief Urges Lebanon to Form Govt. 'within a Week'
Lebanon Protests a Boon for Street Vendors
Geagea confers with Kubic over latest local developments
Geagea Replies to Pompeo Remarks on Lebanon
Geagea Says Officials Seem to be Living 'on Another Planet'
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
November 09-10/2019
Iran Says Enriching Uranium to Five Percent
Iran says prepared to show footage of UN inspector incident
Iran able to enrich uranium up to 60 percent: Official
Iran says case open on ex-FBI agent missing there on CIA job
Rockets land near Iraqi base hosting US forces, no casualties: Iraqi military
Amid heightened violence during protests, Iraqi PM promises new electoral reform
Iraq forces retake key bridges from protesters
Fresh clashes erupt in Baghdad despite call for calm by top cleric
Fresh clashes erupt in Baghdad despite call for calm by top cleric
Iraqi forces push protesters back to main square, kill five
US condemns Syrian government air strikes on civilians in northwest region
Four Syrian soldiers killed in clashes with Turkish-led forces
Fierce clashes erupt between Syrian regime, Turkish forces on border: Report
Report: Heavy Fighting between Syrian and Turkish Troops
Kurds tell EU: Get tough with Turkey or face ISIS fighters
Two security forces killed in blast in Egypt’s Sinai, say officials
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on November 09-10/2019
Hopes of Young Lebanese to Escape
Sectarianism Put to Test/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 09/2019
Lebanon: Political Disputes Among Aoun’s Three Daughters/Youssef Diab/Asharq Al
Awsat/November 09/2019
From Iraq to Lebanon & Syria…the Threat is One and the Same/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq
Al Awsat/November 09/2019
Lebanese fear economic chaos/Najla Houssari/Arab News/November 10/2019
Lebanon's uprising: the era of impunity and blind obedience is over/Raghida
Dergham/The National/November 09/2019
A New Arab Spring Is Unfolding in Iraq and Lebanon. But Things Could Get Bloody
If Iran Gets Its Way/Bessma Momani/Time/November 09/2019
Erdogan Labors to Explain Baghdadi and Family/Aykan Erdemir/FDD/November 09/2019
Turkey: Erdogan's Campaign against the West/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone
Institute/November 09/2019
The Court of Justice of the European Union Limits Free Speech/Judith Bergman/
Gatestone Institute/November 09/2019
Is Iran winning or losing?/Caroline B. Glick, Israel Hayon/Nover 10/2019
The High Risks of Soleimani’s Solution for Iraq/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November
09/2019
Is It Even Possible to Change the Regime in Iraq?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq
Al Awsat/November 09/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on November 09-10/2019
Sources: French Envoy to Arrive In Beirut
Soon
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
Paris avoids interfering in the Lebanese local affairs and refuses to engage in
the bazaar of names suggested to head the next cabinet. However, France refuses
to remain passive in the face of Lebanon’s current political and economic
crisis. “Christophe Farnaud, head of North Africa and Middle East department at
the French foreign ministry should arrive to Beirut soon with a mission to
support Lebanon at the economic and financial level,” official French sources
told Asharq Al-Awsat on Friday. The sources stressed the need to “differentiate”
between the French policy and the US policy in Lebanon. “Paris wants to support
Beirut in filling the current void,” they said, adding that France hopes that
Lebanese officials agree to form a government capable to meet the popular
demands and to issue laws that are necessary for implementing economic reforms
and the pledges taken at the CEDRE conference held last April in Paris.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned last October 29 in response to
popular protests against the political class. The cabinet remains in place in a
caretaker capacity amid stalled efforts to form a new one. Paris considers that
the resignation of Hariri has pushed the crisis to further aggravation. In
short, Paris wants to build a safety net for Lebanon with a focus on quickly
filling the governmental void and on implementing the delayed economic reforms
and meeting the legitimate demands of the street. Other sources said that the
French envoy aims to “comfort Hezbollah” that no plot was planned against its
existence in Lebanon. “There are no conspiracies to weaken or get rid of the
party,” the source said. The sources said that all parties should coordinate to
face the current crisis, which threatens to remove the entire monetary and
financial system. “The envoy has a mission to bridge the gap and contradictory
positions among Lebanese parties with hopes to exist the current crisis,” the
source added.
Lebanese banks urge calm amid financial crisis and
protests/Officials said there was no concern about solvency
AP/November 10/2019
Lebanese bankers and government officials tried to calm a worried public on
Saturday amid the country's major financial crisis, telling them that all
deposits are guaranteed and "there is no need for panic."The country's financial
troubles have worsened since nationwide protests - initially against new taxes -
snowballed into calls for the entire political elite to step down. Banks
reopened November 1 after a two-week closure amid the protests. But depositors
have rushed to withdraw their money in recent days, while the country's various
lenders have imposed varying capital controls that differ from bank to bank. The
announcement by Salim Sfeir, chairman of the Association of Banks in Lebanon,
came after a two-hour meeting between President Michel Aoun, several Cabinet
ministers and top banking officials in search of solutions for Lebanon's
deepening financial and economic crisis. "Depositors' money is being preserved.
What is happening is not an issue related to solvency, and therefore there is no
need for panic," Mr Sfeir said. "People should calm down. People should withdraw
enough to meet their needs, not everything they have." Mr Sfeir added that those
who attended the meeting have asked the central bank's governor, Riad Salameh,
to continue taking the necessary measures "to preserve the safety of cash and
economic stability." He added that small depositors will be given priority when
they come to withdraw money. Mr Aoun's office said the meeting was attended by
the ministers of economy and finance, as well as the central bank governor, the
head of the banks' association and top officials from the country's largest
lenders. Lebanon, one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world, was
already dealing with a severe fiscal crisis before the protests began, one
rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by
entrenched political parties. The Lebanese pound is trading at up to 1,900 to
the dollar on the black market, a devaluation of nearly to 30 per cent from the
official rate.
Banks in Lebanon were closed Saturday for an extra day amid deepening turmoil
and public anxiety over liquidity. Monday is a holiday to mark the Prophet
Muhammad's birthday, and banks are scheduled to resume normal work on
Tuesday.The financial crisis has worsened since Prime Minister Saad Hariri
resigned his government on October 29 meeting a key demand by the protesters. No
date has been yet set by Mr Aoun for consultations with heads of parliamentary
blocs to name a new premier. Protesters are demanding a government made up of
technocrats that would immediately get to work on the necessary reforms to
address the economy. Politicians are divided among other things over whether the
new Cabinet should be made up of experts only or include politicians. The World
Bank on Friday urged Lebanon to form a new Cabinet "within a week" to prevent
further degradation and loss of confidence in its economy, warning of grave
risks to the country's stability. Lebanon's top Sunni cleric, Sheikh Abul-Latif
Daryan, repeated his call Saturday for forming a new government of "national
salvation" that would work to enact reforms.
Lebanon’s president meets bankers amid liquidity crisis
The Associated Press/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Lebanon’s president is meeting with several Cabinet ministers and top banking
officials in search for solutions for the deepening financial and economic
crisis. The country’s financial troubles have worsened since nationwide protests
- initially against new taxes - snowballed into calls for the entire political
elite to step down. Banks reopened November 1 after a two-week closure amid the
protests. But depositors have rushed to withdraw their money in recent days,
while lenders imposed irregular capital controls. President Michel Aoun’s office
says the meeting was attended by the ministers of economy and finance, as well
as the central bank governor and the head of the banks’ association. Banks in
Lebanon were closed Saturday for an extra day amid deepening turmoil and public
anxiety over liquidity.
Aoun during the Baabda Meeting: For adopting necessary
measures to meet citizens’ needs
NNA/Sat 09 Nov 2019
During the financial and economic meeting held this afternoon at the
Presidential Palace in Baabda, chaired by President Michel Aoun, the President
called for taking all the necessary measures to cater to the needs of citizens.
Aoun began the meeting by stressing the importance of addressing the current
financial and banking situation, and to keep citizens well-informed of all
developments to prevent the spread of rumors and false news targeting the
banking sector in particular, and monetary stability in general. In this
context, a series of measures were adopted during the meeting to address the
financial and monetary conditions in the country, with special focus on pursuing
the ongoing coordination between the Central Bank and the Association of Banks
in Lebanon, in order to maintain stability and to enable banks to meet the needs
of their customers, especially small depositors. Additionally, conferees
highlighted the need to ensure the sustainability of the productive sectors as
well. It was also emphasized that depositors' money was well-kept, and that the
recent events have no connection to the issue of solvency; therefore, there is
no need for panic. The financial meeting was attended by Caretaker Ministers of
Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, and Economy and Trade Mansour Btaish, alongside
Caretaker State Minister for Presidency Affairs Salim Jreissati, Central Bank
Governor Riad Salameh, and the President and members of the Lebanese Banks
Association. The Presidency Director-General Antoine Choucair, and Presidential
Advisor Mireille Aoun Hashem were also present during the meeting. At the end of
the meeting, Banks Association President Salim Sfeir read out the meeting’s
statement, outlining the essential points tackled.
Union of Bank Employees Syndicates: Extraordinary meeting upcoming Monday to
discuss infringements against staff in many banks' branches
NNA/Sat 09 Nov 2019
- In an issued statement Saturday by the Secretariat of the Union of Bank
Employees Syndicates in Lebanon, it called for an extraordinary meeting by the
Union's executive board on Monday to "deliberate over the subject of
infringements on bank employees." In this framework, Union President George
Antoine Hajj urged all members to attend the meeting, saying that "what happened
at the end of last week in many banks branches, such as encroachment on
colleagues with insults and physical assault in some cases, requires a decision
by the Union Council in order to maintain the safety of bank employees." The
Union Secretariat indicated that a statement will be issued at the end of the
meeting on Monday to be circulated via the media, adding that the Banks
Association President will also be informed of the Union Council's decision. It
is to note that a statement was issued by the Syndicate of Bank Employees in the
North, calling on Union President Hajj to "adopt a decision of complete and open
closure in the banking sector."
Report: Consumer Prices Up 8% amid Protests
Naharnet/November 09/2019
The Director of the Consumer Protection at the Ministry of Economy, Tarek Younes
said that according to patrols conducted by inspectors from the ministry, the
prices of basket of consumer goods and services rose by 6 and 8 percent, the
Saudi Asharq al-Awsat reported on Saturday.
Moreover, Nabil Fahd, head of the supermarket owners' association, told the
daily "the rise in prices of some consumer goods is linked to several issues
that preceded the dollar crisis.”He said the “cost of interest on businesses has
increased from 7.5 to 12 percent, and fees on credit card payments, which ranged
from 0.85 to 1.25 rose to 2 percent, and then a 3 percent increase in tariffs on
materials.”Another increase he said affected “imports of consumer goods, and the
customs duty ranging between 10 and 20 percent on some other imported materials
such as (Cornflakes).” Adding to the above, the shortage in dollar contributed
to the rise in prices of some commodities, “but some commodities maintained the
same price,” he said. On Wednesday, the World Bank urged protest-hit Lebanon to
form a new government quickly, warning that an economic downturn would deepen
poverty and worsen unemployment. Since October 17, an unprecedented protest
movement has targeted a political class deemed incompetent and corrupt.
Demonstrations have continued despite the government's resignation last week.
Without quick steps to address the crisis, about half of Lebanon's population
could fall into poverty and unemployment could "rise sharply", the lender said
in a statement. Even before protests erupted last month, growth in Lebanon had
stalled following repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by
the war in Syria. Public debt stood at more than $86 billion, or higher than 150
percent of Gross Domestic Product, according to the finance ministry. Petrol
stations owners said they would meet Thursday over persistent difficulties in
paying for hydrocarbon imports due to dollar shortages.
Fuel Shortage, Price Hikes Squeeze Protest-Hit Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
A rationing of dollars by banks in protest-hit Lebanon sparked growing alarm on
Saturday as some petrol pumps ran dry and grocery stores introduced fresh price
hikes. For two decades, the Lebanese pound has been pegged to the greenback and
both currencies used interchangeably in daily life.
But banks have gradually been reducing access to dollars since the end of the
summer, following fears of a shortage in central bank reserves. Access was
limited further this week after banks reopened for the first time since an
unprecedented popular uprising hit the country on October 17.
On Saturday, several petrol stations stopped services as reserves ran out
because of a shortage of dollars needed to pay for imports, a syndicate head
said. "The petrol stations that opened today are the ones that still have
reserves. They will close down as soon as supply runs out," said Sami Brax, the
head of the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners. He said if officials do not
facilitate access to dollars by Tuesday, "we will be forced to stop imports and
close down all petrol stations." His warning came a day after hospitals
threatened to stop receiving patients because of a lack of dollars to pay for
medical imports. Current medical stocks in the country "will not last more than
a month", hospital syndicate head Suleiman Haroun said.
Price hikes
Lebanon has seen an unprecedented popular uprising against everything from power
cuts and poor social security to state corruption. The government yielded to
popular pressure and stepped down last month, with the World Bank urging the
quick formation of a new cabinet to prevent the economy from further
deteriorating. But the country seemed to plunge deeper into economic crisis
after banks reopened this week and further limited dollar supply. They halted
all ATM withdrawals in dollars, introduced an additional charge on dollar
withdrawals made at banks, and severely restricted conversions from Lebanese
pounds. This has forced many people to resort to the black market where they are
charged higher exchange rates, in what amounts to the de-facto devaluation of
the local currency. The official exchange rate has remained fixed at 1,507
Lebanese pounds to the dollar, but the rate in the parallel market has surpassed
1,800. According to Zouhair Berro, the head of the Lebanese Consumers
Association, the dollar shortage is leading to price hikes, especially for meat,
vegetables and dairy.He said that suppliers are demanding payment in dollars.
Economist Naseeb Gharbeel said that banks are being put "under pressure" due to
a large demand for dollars from Lebanese inside the country and abroad.
'Guarantee a future'
President Michel Aoun met central bank governor Riad Salameh and representatives
from the Lebanese Association of Banks on Saturday to discuss the situation,
according to the state-run National News Agency. The meeting came as hundreds
took part in student-led demonstrations across the country to pressure the
government into meeting their demands. The rallies have gained new momentum
after pupils and university students boycotted lessons in recent days to
spearhead the street movement. “We want to guarantee a future for ourselves,"
said Mohammad, an 18-year-old high-school student.
"I shouldn't be forced to leave the country after I graduate to find a job," he
said from a protest square in central Beirut. "The current political class is
not capable of providing this."Even before protests erupted last month, growth
in Lebanon had stalled following repeated political deadlocks in recent years,
compounded by the war in Syria. Public debt stood at more than $86 billion, over
150 percent of gross domestic product, according to the finance ministry.
Moody's ratings agency this week downgraded Lebanon's sovereign debt, saying the
anti-government protests had hit investor confidence and threatened economic
stability. The World Bank had forecast a contraction of 0.2 percent before the
turmoil, but has said that it now expects Lebanon's recession "to be even more
significant". Without quick steps to address the crisis, about half of Lebanon's
population could fall into poverty and unemployment could "rise sharply", the
lender said.
Lebanese banks face threats, Hariri said to want neutral
government
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Lebanese bank staff are facing abuse from customers angered by restrictions on
access to their cash, the employees’ union said on Friday, reflecting
intensifying pressures in an economy gripped by its deepest crisis since the
1975-90 civil war. With Lebanon paralyzed by political and economic turmoil, its
politicians have yet to make progress towards agreeing a new government to
replace one that was toppled by an unprecedented wave of protests against the
sectarian ruling elite. Saad al-Hariri, who quit as prime minister last week, is
determined the next government should be devoid of political parties because
such a cabinet will not be able to secure Western assistance, a source familiar
with his view said. He is still seeking to convince the powerful, Iran-backed
Shi’ite group Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement of the need for such a
technocratic government, the source said. Hariri’s office could not immediately
be reached for comment.
Leading Christian politician Samir Geagea warned of great unrest if supplies of
basic goods run short and said Lebanon’s financial situation was “very, very
delicate”. One of the world’s most heavily indebted states, Lebanon was already
in deep economic trouble before protests erupted on Oct. 17, ignited by a
government plan to tax WhatsApp calls. Taking aim at rampant state corruption,
the nationwide protests have targeted the entire elite. Since reopening a week
ago, banks have been seeking to stave off capital flight by blocking most
transfers abroad and imposing curbs on hard-currency withdrawals, though the
central bank has announced no formal capital controls. The banks’ moves have led
to threats against their staff. “Clients with guns have entered banks and
security guards have been afraid to speak to them as when people are in a state
like this you don’t know how people will act,” said George al Hajj, president of
the Federation of Syndicates of Banks Employees.
Bank staff are considering going on strike, he said. “Clients are becoming very
aggressive; the situation is very critical and our colleagues cannot continue
under the current circumstances,” added Hajj, whose union has around 11,000
members, just under half of the total banking staff. A senior banker expressed
concern that potential industrial action by staff could force the closure of
banks from Tuesday onward. Banks will be closed on Saturday and Monday for a
public holiday. A big part of Lebanon’s economic crisis stems from a slowdown of
capital inflows which has led to a scarcity of US dollars and spawned a black
market where the Lebanese pound has weakened below its official pegged rate. A
dollar was costing 1,800 pounds or more on Friday compared to 1,740 on Thursday,
two market sources said. The pegged rate is 1,507.5 pounds.
“On another planet”
Some banks have lowered the cap on maximum withdrawals from dollar accounts this
week, according to customers and bank employees. At least one bank cut credit
card limits from $10,000 to $1,000 this week, customers said. “Anything that
touches the liquidity of the bank is being restricted,” said another banker. One
bank told a customer that a weekly withdrawal cap of $2,500 had been slashed to
$1,500. Friday also saw the longest queues yet at ATMs, the senior banker said,
as customers prepared for the two-day closure. In central Beirut, several people
tried and failed to withdraw dollars from an ATM belonging to one of the banks
that is still dispensing dollars from its cash machines. “It’s frustrating as I
need money to keep me going for the weekend,” said one customer, a 25-year-old
marketing professional. Another customer was able to withdraw cash in Lebanese
pounds from the same ATM.
Hariri, who resigned on October 29, has been holding closed-door meetings with
other politicians. “Hariri has made up his mind. He does not want a government
with any politicians because this government cannot secure support from the
West,” the source familiar with his view said.
Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces Party, said the only way out of the crisis
was the formation of a competent government independent of political parties.
“Every hour we hear of a crisis at the gates, whether it’s (supply of) petrol,
flour, or medicine,” Geagea said in a telephone interview. “Everything is
collapsing and the officials are on another planet, taking their time.”
Report: Hizbullah, Speaker ‘Fail’ to Persuade Adamant
Hariri
Naharnet/November 09/2019
The formation of a new government reportedly hinges on caretaker Prime Minister
Saad Hariri who “refuses” to head another cabinet, amid failed Hizbullah,
Speaker’s attempts to convince him otherwise, al-Joumhouria daily reported on
Saturday. The daily said that Speaker Nabih Berri has dispatched Minister Ali
Hassan Khalil a “number of times to persuade Hariri, emphasizing the need that
he shoulder responsibility.”It also said that Hizbullah has failed to dissuade
Hariri from his decision. According to information, the recent meeting between
Hariri and Hizbullah’s political aide, Hajj Hussein Khalil, was “frank and
friendly.” Hariri allegedly made no mention that he rejects Hizbullah’s
participation in an upcoming government. Moreover, Khalil reportedly passed
Hizbullah’s position that Hariri should be a key partner in solving the current
government crisis, and that he should shoulder responsibility ... “we are with
you,” he reportedly told the caretaker Premier. But Hariri maintains an
“unwavering” position, said the daily, which Hussein allegedly said “we don’t
consider (the rejection) that a final answer, let us leave it to the ongoing
contacts.” Hariri tendered his government's resignation on October 29 in
response to pressure from the street. The cabinet has stayed on in a caretaker
capacity but efforts to form a new line-up seem to be stalling, with each
faction in the outgoing coalition seeking to salvage some influence. Hariri met
President Michel Aoun on Thursday and said that consultations were ongoing with
all political players but gave no details.
Students in Tyre Join Pupils Demos for First Time
Naharnet/November 09/2019
Hundreds of students in the southern city of Tyre joined for the first time on
Saturday the masses of fellow students in different parts of Lebanon boosting
the country’s anti-government protest movement. Tyre students chanted
“revolution, revolution,” expressing anger of an increasing rate in
“unemployment,” and demanding “new curricula and social rights.”Since Wednesday,
university and high school students across the country have massively deserted
their classrooms to join nationwide streets protests. Earlier in October, pro-AMAL
gunmen suppressed by force the protesters chanting slogans opposed to AMAL
Movement leader and Speaker Nabih Berri. Armed clashes were reported as videos
of the clashes went viral on social media. Thousands of high school students
across Lebanon skipped classes Saturday for a fourth day in a row to carry on
the flame of the country's anti-graft movement. Lebanon has since October 17
been gripped by massive cross-sectarian protests demanding a complete revamping
of a political system they say is corrupt and inept. With youth unemployment
running at over 30 percent, school students have joined en masse since Wednesday
demanding a better country so they don't have to emigrate.
Lebanon’s grand mufti calls for protesters’ demands to be met
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Lebanon’s grand mufti, the top cleric for Sunni Muslims, called on Saturday for
those in power to meet protesters’ demands of ending corruption and
sectarianism. Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian also said the time had come
for the prompt formation of a national emergency government of experts, in a
televised address on the occasion of Prophet Mohammed’s birthday. The country is
in political turmoil after a wave of protests that prompted the resignation of
Saad Hariri as prime minister last week.
World Bank Regional Chief Urges Lebanon to Form Govt. 'within a Week'
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 09/2019
The World Bank's regional director on Friday urged Lebanon to form a new Cabinet
"within a week" to prevent further degradation and loss of confidence in its
economy. Saroj Kumar Jha told The Associated Press that the World Bank observed
in recent weeks increasing risks to Lebanon's economic and financial stability.
"We are very concerned that this will impact the Lebanese poor people, middle
class" and businesses, he said. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned his
government on Oct. 29 in response to the unprecedented protests which have swept
Lebanon starting in the middle of last month. The protests erupted over proposed
new taxes and have snowballed into calls for the entire political elite that has
ruled Lebanon since the end of its 1975-90 civil war to step aside. More than a
week after Hariri resigned, President Michel Aoun has not yet set a date for
consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs who would name a new premier.
There appears to be sharp divisions over whether the new Cabinet should be made
up of experts only or include politicians. "It is extremely important that there
is a political solution to the ongoing crisis and (that) we have a credible
government in the office, which can launch ambitious bold reforms for economic
stability, for more growth in the economy, for more jobs to be created and to
restore confidence," Jha added. Jha said the losses "are enormous" and some of
them can be measured but there are many that cannot. He said the World Bank
estimates that before the protests started on Oct. 17, Lebanese was already in
recession and "we were projecting 0.2% negative growth in the Lebanese economy.
More recent "estimates suggest that the contraction in the country's economy
could be about 1% of the GDP, which is quiet substantial."He added this would
almost mean 600 to 700 million dollars of economic losses every day. Lebanon,
which suffers from widespread corruption, has one of the highest debts in the
world, standing at $86 billion or 150 of the GDP.
Jha said the new government should work on restoring confidence in the Lebanese
economy, creating business opportunities for all Lebanese, improving the job
market and launching a comprehensive program for the state-owned electricity
company, which is draining state coffers.
"We need a government immediately. A government which is credible, meets the
expectations of the Lebanese people, can work with all (sides) in the country
and international community" to take these reforms forward, he said. "Given the
scale of social and economic impact in terms of economic losses, increasing
poverty, increasing unemployment, I think it is extremely important that we have
a government within a week to prevent further degradation of the Lebanese
economy and the confidence in the Lebanese economy," he said, speaking to The AP
at his office in central Beirut.
"If there is a government within a week, first of all it will send a very
positive signal to everyone. To the markets, investors, to the international
community," Jha said. Since banks in Lebanon opened again last Friday for the
first time in two weeks, people have been rushing to banking institutions to
withdraw money fearing that the country's crisis would further deepen amid
shortage in liquidity. The banks subsequently have been imposing irregular
capital controls to protect deposits and prevent a run on the banks. The banking
sector -- a backbone of the economy -- suffered a blow on Thursday when Moody's
Investors Service downgraded the country's three largest banks into junk
territory. The international agency downgraded to Caa2 from Caa1, the
local-currency deposit ratings respectively of Bank Audi, BLOM Bank and Byblos
Bank.
Two days earlier Moody's said it lowered Lebanon's issuer rating to caa2 citing
the possibility of rescheduling the country's massive debt. Jha said the
"downgrading of several Lebanese banks ... shows that the confidence in the
Lebanese economy is very sharply declining.""It presents itself as a challenge
to the Lebanese political leaders to really form the government as soon as
possible," he also said. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported
Friday that the country's banks will be closed for two extra days over the
weekend amid deepening turmoil and public anxiety over liquidity and sustained
anti-government protests. It said the banks will be closed both on Saturday and
Monday, along with the regular Sunday closure for the weekend. The report says
this will allow for the observation of the holiday celebrating Prophet
Mohammed's birthday, which is set for Monday in Lebanon.
Lebanon is one of the world's most heavily indebted countries.
Lebanon Protests a Boon for Street Vendors
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 09/2019
The smells of grilled cheese and cooked corn waft over the protesters in the
Lebanese capital -- with daily crowds filling the the capital's main squares,
the movement has been a boon for street vendors.Ibrahim is a plasterer by trade,
but when he saw crowds flocking by the tens of thousands to Beirut's Martyrs'
Square to protest against government corruption and incompetence, he knew it was
not an opportunity to be missed. One day, he's selling "kaak", a round, savoury
Lebanese bread covered in sesame seeds. The next, it's corn on the cob or small
trays of lupin beans dressed with cumin and lemon juice.
"It's better than being out of work," the stocky 27-year-old said. Times have
been tough for many months, he said, with the country hit by an economic crisis
that has not spared the construction sector.
- 'New livelihood' -
"For us, the revolution represents a new livelihood, and at the same time we are
protesting with the people," Ibrahim said. On good days, he earns between $35
and $40 with his food cart. Forced to abandon his education before age 18, he
has been taking care of his sick mother since his father passed away.
"She has no social security or pension, I spend my life paying for doctors and
medicines," he said. A short distance away, the square resounds to the rallying
cries of the protest movement which has rocked Lebanon since October 17:
"Revolution! Revolution!" and "the people want the fall of the regime".
A new group of protesters march past and Ibrahim quickly gets back to business,
grabbing his cart from the car park where he had hidden it. When the
demonstrations swell, police do not bother with street vendors, Ibrahim said.
But when rallying points empty out, security forces confiscate vendors' goods
and remind them that their activities are illegal. A little further on, several
protesters have gathered around a cart serving punnets of corn and beans that
its owner has dubbed the "revolution wagon". Normally, Emad Hassan Saad plies
his business on the corniche, Beirut's seaside promenade. "We sell more here
because there are more people," the 29-year-old said. He has brought on three
friends to help him out. The first peels lemons, the second chops them and the
third pulls ears of corn from a pot of boiling water. "The rallies are a job
opportunity for these young people, even if it's only temporary," Dana Zayyat,
21, said, munching on lupin beans. Her friend Jana Kharzal agrees. "This
revolution has allowed young people who are poor to work, those who don't have
the chance to study or to rent a shop." Youth unemployment is chronic in
Lebanon, with more than 30 percent out of work, while almost a third of of
Lebanon's population lives in poverty.
- Fines -
Some vendors complain of the treatment they receive at the hands of security
forces, even at their usual selling spots like the corniche, popular with Sunday
strollers. One of their number, who did not want to give his name, said he had
had to pay dozens of fines the equivalent of $300, or 20 day's take.
Despite the risks, the manager of a hookah rental service took his chances and
set up shop among the protesters. He gets to work in the evenings, when the
demonstrations swell and police attention is elsewhere. Fifteen or so of his
water pipes are lined up near a concrete wall in a car park in Martyrs' Square,
where his employees are busy serving customers. He'll leave "when the
political class leaves", he says between draws on a hookah. Not far away, a
frail elderly woman offers red roses for sale to passers-by from where she is
seated on the ground, despite the late hour.
A brown scarf encircles her weathered face and when protesters ask why she is
out so late, she answers that she has no choice. "This country pushes the poor
into the grave," she says in a weak voice.
Geagea confers with Kubic over latest local developments
NNA/November 09/2019
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, met this afternoon with UN Secretary
General’s Special Representative, Jan Kubis, in the presence of his foreign
relations advisor Elie Khoury and the Party's external relations department
head, Elie Hindi. According to Geagea’s Press Office, discussions during the
meeting focused on "the latest local developments in terms of the prevailing
economic situation and the issue of forming the new government."
Geagea Replies to Pompeo Remarks on Lebanon
Naharnet/November 09/2019
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea on Saturday replied to statements made by US
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about Lebanon. “With great thanks Mr. Pompeo,
the Lebanese people need no help to come out of their living, social and
economic crisis," Geagea said in a tweet.
Popmeo had earlier said: “The Iraqi and Lebanese people want their countries
back. They are discovering that the Iranian regime’s top export is corruption,
badly disguised as revolution. Iraq and Lebanon deserve to set their own courses
free from Khamenei’s meddling.”
Geagea Says Officials Seem to be Living 'on Another Planet'
Naharnet/November 09/2019
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea on Friday said that the country’s political
leaders seem to be living “on another planet,” lamenting that there are no
indications that the new government will be formed anytime soon. Geagea also
accused Hizbullah of seeking a government similar to the resigned one by
insisting on having its ally Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil in it.
The World Bank's regional director on Friday urged Lebanon to form a new Cabinet
"within a week" to prevent further degradation and loss of confidence in its
economy. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned his government on Oct. 29 in
response to the unprecedented protests which have swept Lebanon starting in the
middle of last month. The protests erupted over proposed new taxes and have
snowballed into calls for the entire political elite that has ruled Lebanon
since the end of its 1975-90 civil war to step aside. More than a week after
Hariri resigned, President Michel Aoun has not yet set a date for consultations
with heads of parliamentary blocs who would name a new premier. There appears to
be sharp divisions over whether the new Cabinet should be made up of experts
only or include politicians.
Hopes of Young Lebanese to Escape Sectarianism Put to Test
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 09/2019
Lebanon's protests are bringing out people from across the country's spectrum of
faiths and communities trying to throw out the entire ruling elite. They give a
glimpse into a Lebanon transcending longtime divisions among sects. But the
young protesters face an entrenched political leadership that depends on
sectarianism and an older generation that fears disrupting it could bring back
civil war. That threat resonates less with a generation that has little or no
memory of a war that ended in 1990. The protests erupted over proposed new taxes
but snowballed into calls for the entire political elite to go. For them,
sectarian power-sharing is bound together with corruption and mismanagement that
has impoverished them and left infrastructure so decrepit that power outages hit
every day. Singer Tania Saleh grew up amid a civil war that robbed her of her
childhood, of her friends and neighbors and of the Lebanon she so loved. For
years, she has sung the pains of sectarian schisms. "You Lebanese have created
10 or 12 gods ... You divided me. You aggravated me. You parceled me out and you
became divided," one of her songs says, imagining a conversation with God. "He
who wants to pray ... must understand that God, the creator, has not made one
sect better than the other."
Based on a poem written in 1975, the year the war broke out, the lyrics still
felt searing and relevant enough for Saleh to add to an album in 2017. Now, the
50-year-old hopes younger Lebanese can make her country dance to a different
tune, one that transcends sectarian divisions. She is inspired by the mosaic of
protesters who have come together in the past weeks from across the religious,
political and geographic spectrum, united in disdain for a political class they
say has cheated them of a decent future. "The new generation is not like us,"
she said. "We have seen too many tragedies and so we are scared."
The demonstrators have provided those eager to see the country move past its
sectarian legacy with a glimpse of what can be. But Saleh says she has no
illusions about how long that path will be. Those aspirations are increasingly
being put to the test by a system that delicately balances among 18 officially
recognized sectarian groups. The system is locked into the country's politics.
The posts of the president, prime minister and parliament speaker are given to
the biggest communities — Maronite Christian, Sunni Muslim and Shiite Muslim.
Most political parties are explicitly based on sect, and politicians pass out
patronage and jobs to their communities.
It is also engrained in society, where many fear domination by other sects and
one sect's gain can be seen as another's loss. Looming over everything is the
fear new violence might erupt if anyone wrecks the balance. That threat
resonates less with a generation that has little or no memory of a war that
ended in 1990. The protests erupted over proposed new taxes but snowballed into
calls for the entire political elite to go. For them, sectarian power-sharing is
bound together with corruption and mismanagement that has impoverished them and
left infrastructure so decrepit that power outages hit every day.
Hiba Farhat, a 31-year-old Shiite protester, said politicians pit sects against
each other so "people would say, 'Ok, I accept corruption and I accept this
leader; I just need him to protect me from the other sect.'"Slogans like "the
era of sects has ended" and "a revolution against fear" are scrawled in graffiti
and proclaimed on banners. At a recent protest, demonstrators poured into Beirut
squares in response to calls to keep unified. Wearing a flowing black robe and a
light-colored scarf framing her face, 25-year-old Huda Wissam smiled and swayed
to the tunes of national songs as others rhythmically stomped their feet. With
her was her 15-year-old brother and 20-year-old sister. "I am veiled and when I
see a Christian smiling at me, I get reassured that we have shed off
sectarianism," said Wissam, a Sunni Muslim. "The challenge is for us all to
remain together, Christian, Muslim, Shiite or Sunni ... then we will
succeed."Her father, she said, wanted her to stay out of protests, warning,
"This will lead to a civil war."
"He doesn't want his children to become victims for something that won't happen.
He has given up, but we won't," she said. "I don't want to wait until I am my
parents' age and then there would be nothing I can do."On a recent night, a
small group of protesters sat on a sidewalk by the bell tower of a church in the
northern Beirut suburb of Jal el-Deeb and took stock of how far they have come.
"The grudges that they have planted in us, our generation has put an end to
them. I no longer feel sectarianism. Lebanon comes first," Charbel Elie, 32,
told the group. He wanted to know what the protesters had gained.
"Today, we don't ask what sect you belong to and what area you're from," and
fear of criticizing leaders has been broken, replied Nayla Geagea, an activist
and lawyer. She walked them through constitutional steps to forming a new
government.
A 75-year-old man in the circle spoke up to say he had no questions but wanted
to apologize to the younger generation for the country they were inheriting.
"We will fix it, uncle," someone yelled.
But protesters have had to keep sectarianism from fragmenting their own ranks.
Geagea pointed out that when the prime minister stepped down — one of the
demands of protesters — some made it look like the demonstrators were targeting
his Sunni community. "We have to defeat this rhetoric," she said. Amid grumbling
over roadblocks and fears of economic collapse, men shouting Shiite religious
slogans and chants in support of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah confronted
protesters in one instance. Some Shiites who initially joined demonstrations
have stayed away after Nasrallah — even as he expressed sympathy for protesters'
demands — accused foreign powers of exploiting them to undermine Hezbollah and
warned against dragging the country into civil war. Tensions between opposing
Christian factions have also run high. Some supporters of President Michel Aoun
accuse rivals from the rightwing Lebanese Forces movement of seeking to topple
him. The two sides fought each other brutally in the final years of the civil
war. Aoun backers held a demonstration to support him and the president has
called for unity. "The sectarian system will not get toppled through protests,"
said one of them, 27-year-old Elias Khoury. "It will get toppled when the
hearts, not the laws, change."
The two are tangled together — a social mentality clinging to sect and a
political class whose power depends on sectarianism.
"When you ask for the dismantling of the political sectarian system ... you're
basically asking the current political elite to commit group suicide. They're
not going to do that," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East
Center. The young "want basic, fundamental rights and for them they really have
nothing to lose," she said. "They recognize that this system hasn't worked for
their parents; it is not working for them."Saleh, the singer, said she takes
hope from a generation she feels is not as sectarian. Her son, she said, doesn't
care to know the faith of his schoolmates.
Just like her art, her life has been colored by Lebanon's intricacies. Her world
changed at only six. The civil war broke out and school friends and neighbors
started disappearing. The Christians fled to other areas. Born to a Sunni father
and a Shiite mother, Saleh would go out sometimes with a cross dangling around
her neck, a statement of defiance to the fighters who stole the normalcy of her
life.
The war pitted Palestinians against Lebanese, Christians against Muslims,
Christians against Christians and every other combination possible.
As battles raged, Saleh and her family left too, again and again and again. They
bounced from home to home, escaped briefly to Kuwait. These memories are seared
in her mind. Her mother begging armed men to let them drive through. Listening
every day in Kuwait to iconic Lebanese singer Fairouz belt out "I love you, oh
Lebanon.""There is no hope for me to enjoy a proper country," Saleh said. "But
the hope is for our kids and grandkids. Let them start now better than waiting
for when it's too late."
Lebanon: Political Disputes Among Aoun’s Three Daughters
Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
With the beginning of popular protests on October 17, the family of President
Michel Aoun was shaken with political disagreements, specifically between his
three daughters, over the policies of Aoun’s son-in-law, the head of the FPM and
Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. Indications of a dispute emerged few months ago,
when MP Shamel Roukoz, the president’s son-in-law, announced his withdrawal from
the FPM’s Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc. However, recent reports noted that
Aoun’s daughter and advisor, Mireille (the wife of Roy Hashem, OTV channel’s
director-general) has left the presidential palace due to a clash with Bassil,
to later return to Baabda to assume her role but with restricted authorities. On
Thursday, the Kataeb Party website quoted sources close to Mireille as saying
that Aoun has asked her to no longer deal with politics, and to leave such
affairs to Bassil.
In a television interview, Claudine, the wife of MP Shamel Roukoz, acknowledged
the emergence of a new opposition within the FPM.
“There are different approaches within the same house, and in the end, the
people voted and gave their confidence to the deputies. There is a great
responsibility to be assumed today,” she said.Political disputes seem to
threaten the personal relations between the sisters. Sources close to the FPM
noted that the “lines of communication are almost cut between Chantal (Bassil’s
wife) on one hand, and her sisters, Claudine and Mireille, on the other,
especially following Bassil’s speech last Sunday from Baabda, in which he
accused “relatives and strangers” of betrayal.
Naim Aoun – Aoun’s nephew – did not conceal the presence of disputes within the
FPM. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said that the consequences of these rifts
would be more obvious following the formation of the new government. Despite his
deep disagreement with the current FPM leaders, Naim tried to minimize the
disputes between the three daughters. “There are no problems among the sisters
at the family or personal level, but the political difference between them is
clear,” he said. Both Mireille and Claudine did not attend the FPM demonstration
held last Sunday in front of the Baabda Palace. In a television interview,
Claudine lashed out at Bassil without naming him, and commented on popular
demands on Bassil to stay away from the government, saying: “As the president’s
daughter, I am ready to sit at home if it is in the country’s interest, because
a total collapse would not exempt any party, but will affect all sides.”
From Iraq to Lebanon & Syria…the Threat is
One and the Same
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
As US President Donald Trump congratulates himself on the ‘achievement’ of
withdrawing from Syria, with the exception of the oil producing area, Western
capitals seem to be in a hurry to calm the situation in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
Everybody wants to facilitate forming new governments and contain tension; while
no one seems to care about anything other than replacing one government with
another, regardless of what the region is going through. Yet, since the outbreak
of the current Lebanese uprising against the ruling elite and corruption three
weeks ago, which led to the resignation of Saad Hariri’s cabinet, the Secretary
General of Hezbollah made three appearances in which he resorted to ‘advice’,
directives, accusations and threats.
Iraq is also going through a similar popular uprising calling for the
resignation of the government and parliament. This uprising is sweeping the
Shiite areas of central and southern Iraq, and has witnessed tearing down
pictures of Iran’s Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards Al-Quds
Brigade commander General Qasim Soleimani. Incidentally, Soleimani had left
Lebanon, a few days before, to Iraq, where he has been busy planning the
containment and crushing of both uprisings.
In both cases, fingers have been pointing to the Iranian leadership, which is
obvious; since it would be absurd to separate the terrible living conditions in
countries like Iraq and Lebanon, from their virtual occupation and rule by
Iranian-controlled militias. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s occupation has been the
direct cause of the country’s brain drain, lack of investment, concealment of
widespread corruption, and destruction of its services sector. Likewise, in
Iraq, the de facto occupation of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and its
constituent militias have been sucking dry the oil-rich country’s great wealth,
including causing the closure of no less than 52,000 factories as Iran imposes
its stranglehold on the Iraqi economy.
Two valuable contributions to the subject were recently published in the US,
covering Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. The first, was an article by Samir Sumaidaie,
a former Iraqi Interior Minister and former Ambassador to the UN and Washington,
published by ‘The Atlantic Council’; and the second, was a report on ‘The
Growing Threat to the Druze’ published by ‘The Middle East Institute’ with
collaboration of ETANA-Syria.
Sumaidaie wrote: “In Washington, some believe that despite the protests in Iraq
that began in early October and continue apace, the current Iraqi government
should be supported and given help as it responds to the just demands of the
protesters. The reasons given range from: “What is the alternative? The devil
you know is better than the devil you don’t” to “This is the constitutionally
elected government, and challenging it risks chaos.”
“That analysis,” he added “might be convenient, but it is wrong. It does not
take into account what has led to this explosion of public anger.
The May 2018 elections were all but boycotted by the electorate. The turnout was
claimed to be around 44 percent, but many believe it was much lower. That
contrasts with the 60 percent turnout in recent previous elections even without
all provinces fully participating. Then, in June 2018, a suspicious fire
destroyed half of the ballots from the 2018 election, and the results were
“adjusted” by an Electoral Commission (EC), which should have been independent
but was not.”
He then pointed out to the fact that “the constitutionality of the current
political system is open to challenge in other important respects”, including:
1- “The constitution forbids discrimination on the basis of race, religion, and
sect, but the current political order is predicated on the Prime Minister being
Shiite, the President Kurdish, and the Speaker of Parliament Sunni…
2- The constitution explicitly bans militias. But there exist in Iraq heavily
armed militias (and not just the Popular Mobilization Forces, also known as the
PMF) with declared allegiance to Iran…
3- Most importantly, the ruling clique has diverted the country’s revenue from
oil—the country’s primary source of income—into the pockets of the elite through
an elaborate patronage scheme and corruption (….) Young people would not go into
the streets unarmed and aware that they face live bullets from the militias if
they were not desperate.”
In conclusion, he wrote that “the Iraqi government, as it is constituted now and
despite all past and present promises and claims to the contrary, does not have
the political will or the capacity to deliver good governance.”
As for ‘The Middle East Institute’s report, under the title ‘Divide and Conquer:
The Growing Threat to the Druze’, it maintained that “Deep political, familial,
and religious ties have allowed Druze communities across the Levant to remain
largely unified against external threats, but eight years of violence in Syria
and a coordinated campaign by the regime and its allies now threaten to
destabilize regional Druze politics and erode the sect’s political and military
power. An Iranian-backed campaign by Hezbollah to incite inter-Druze violence in
Lebanon has curtailed this unity, laying the groundwork for Hezbollah to expand
into Syria’s Suweida province with impunity.”
The report added that “Hezbollah’s push to create inter-sect strife has extended
from Beirut to the occupied Golan Heights to Suweida”, and went on explaining
that:
1- Approximately 60% of all armed groups in the Suweida province are affiliated
with Hezbollah, and it continues to work to recruit or co-opt partners there.”
2- Within Iran’s strategy, Hezbollah is launching a two-pronged attack on the
Druze: One inside Lebanon, where it is working to divide the community and
weaken its biggest political bloc headed by Walid Jumblatt through supporting
and encouraging aspiring rivals; and inciting inter-Druze confrontation and
violence in their Mount Lebanon stronghold. The other in Syria, where Hezbollah
and the Iranian militias blackmail the Druze of Suweida (southern Syria) through
organized crime, like kidnappings, assassinations, smuggling. Also in the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, tensions and divisions are being fomented
between the area’s Druze and Jumblatt.
3- As for Israel, “Hezbollah and the regime have clashed with Israeli forces at
the Lebanese-Israeli border in recent weeks, and the controversial passage of a
Jewish nationality law in Israel has seen relations between the Druze and Tel
Aviv sour since the beginning of the year.” Exploiting the tension between the
1948 Palestinian (Israeli) - Druze and the Israeli right-wing government; more
so after the ‘Jewish nationality law’ is hoped to neutralize the Druze there,
and allow the pro-Iran militia to extend its influence to the eastern slopes of
Mount Hermon adjacent to occupied Golan Heights.
The two aforementioned published works are extremely valuable to the
understanding of the events in Iraq and Lebanon, as well as the strategic land
‘corridor’ Iran is creating between Tehran and Beirut through Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon.
General Soleimani, who is virtually the ‘military governor’ of the three
countries is going ahead with this project against the deafening silence – is it
the collusion – of the International Community!
One sincerely hopes that the suffering stops and strong will of the Iraqis and
the Lebanese proves strong enough to defeat this collusion.
Lebanese fear economic chaos
Najla Houssari/Arab News/November 10/2019
Banks witness pressure from depositors to withdraw funds for commercial purposes
both in dollars or Lebanese pounds
BEIRUT: Lebanese worries rose on Saturday as economic chaos began to seep into
the country’s life cycle. The dollar crisis is resurfacing. Lebanese banks
closed on Saturday and will be closed next Monday for the Prophet’s birthday.
Over the past two days, the banks witnessed pressure from depositors to withdraw
funds for commercial purposes both in dollars or Lebanese pounds, but the banks
were reluctant to pay them on the pretext of lack of liquidity. Social media
reported many arguments between bank employees and customers. The financial
situation was the focus of a meeting between caretaker Prime Minister Saad
Hariri and Lebanese Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Friday night. It was
also the focus of a meeting between President Michel Aoun and Governor Salameh
on Saturday, Chairman of the Association of Banks Salim Sfeir and members of the
board of directors of the association.
According to information distributed after the Hariri-Salameh meeting, Governor
Salameh refuted with figures and facts the temporary measures taken by the banks
“to protect the depositors and their money and maintain the stability of the
lira’s fixed exchange rate (1,507 against the dollar) with the support of the
great potential possessed by the Banque du Liban.” He stressed the necessity of
accelerating the formation of a government that “rebuilds confidence and
contributes to the restoration of things to the right level to relieve monetary
and banking pressures.” Salameh described what has been happening as “a state of
confusion resulting from the loss of confidence and fears of the development of
political matters to the extent of unrest.” Sfeir assured the Lebanese that
“things are under control and there is no need for fear or concern for the
citizens on their deposits and their money. Despite precautionary measures that
protect their deposits and protect the Lebanese pound, banks continue to serve
their clients.”
Fady Gemayel, president of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists, met with
Governor Salameh and complained to him about “the suspension of facilities,
stopping transfers and the scarcity in hard currency, which does not allow the
provision of basic raw materials necessary for the industry.” After the meeting,
Gemayel said: “This puts the industrialists on the brink of collapse for reasons
unrelated to them, and this collapse will first affect the banks.”However, the
reassurances did not alleviate the confusion and concern of the Lebanese.
Protests were held in Tripoli in front of money exchange bureaus, which closed
their doors. Money exchange bureaus in Lebanon are pricing the dollar
differently from the official dollar pricing. The dollar reached 2,000 Lebanese
pounds on the black market because of low volumes.
Many fuel stations in Beirut and the region were closed due to the lack of
stock, while other stations rationed the distribution of fuel. Fadi Abu Shakra,
the representative of the companies and distributors of fuel, said the reason
for this was that “the owners of the stations are struggling to get the dollars
to buy fuel and that the stations are currently closing one by one because of
running out of stock.”
Things are under control and there is no need for fear or concern for the
citizens on their deposits and their money.
Salim Sfeir, Chairman of the Association of Banks
Two laboratories that produce vaccines told hospitals on Saturday that any
hospital that was late in paying the laboratories would not get vaccines until
it paid in cash, Al Markazia news agency (CNA) said. The Order of Nurses in
Lebanon warned that “some hospitals have begun procedures to affect the salaries
of nurses, on the grounds that hospitals did not receive their dues from the
state treasury and guarantors, and the Order will be forced to take ominous
escalatory measures because the nursing sector can no longer tolerate more
prejudice.”
The street protests remained unchanged on the 24th day of the civil movement.
The protest groups targeted the Foreign Ministry because “the ministry is not a
public facility to serve the minister and his group,” amid heavy security
deployment.
The political discussions on the issue of scheduling binding parliamentary
consultations to appoint a new prime minister did not make any progress due to
the preconditions for forming a government.
Asked whether the street protests are in a dilemma because economic concerns
have overridden the anger of young protesters, Dr. Kholoud Kassem, a political
sociologist, told Arab News: “We must not forget that what moved people on the
street was the economic situation and people were not thinking about politics.
People just want to live. The street uprising may have taken a second facet that
is related to politics. But people are not taking into consideration the
specificity of the Lebanese structure.”
Dr. Kassem added: “After this time, the revolution must monitor the daily
reality and how it should move accordingly. What is happening now in the country
puts the revolution in a dilemma if it is not directed by people who are known
for their competence and lack of political affiliation. People need to be
realistic. The structure in Lebanon that people want to change is not just
ministers, deputies and presidents. It is a complex system in the Lebanese
structure.” Dr. Qassem stressed that “the revolution has attained an achievement
represented by monitoring and accountability. This was not available before, but
there is an urgent need now for competent figures who follow this monitoring and
follow-up what people have achieved.”
Lebanon's uprising: the era of impunity and blind obedience is over
Raghida Dergham/The National/November 09/2019
The ruling class continue to bank on protesters running out of steam and
returning to their previous modus operandi
Lebanon’s revolution shows no sign of abating but in the coming phase this will
not matter, because the indifference of the ruling class and the coming economic
collapse is leading to a dangerous new phase. The perseverance and
multi-generational aspect of the Lebanese revolution have left the politicians
in shock, after they assumed the protests were a fleeting emotional outburst
that would inevitably fizzle out.
Despite their shock, they continue to bet on the uprising running out of steam,
prompting protesters to go home, after which everything would return to normal –
that is to say, corrupt politicians will return to their misdemeanours and their
domination of the country’s resources and fate. However, the multi-generational
revolution has created a new reality, despite the ruling class’s refusal to
recognise it. The era of impunity and blind obedience is over. But the denial
does not mean these men of power and sectarianism are not panicking. The coming
social unrest will lead to mob hysteria against them and those close to them. If
and when economic collapse happens, it will lead to shortages in fuel, food and
other basic commodities in the next two months, precipitating a financial and
social catastrophe. The young faces of the revolution must take all necessary
measures to avoid descending into a mob mentality of wanton destruction.
The failure of the ruling class to understand the consequences of their
deception, arrogance and greed, thinking that they can stall until the
revolution has run its course, is dangerous and foolish, because it is not the
youth who will tire first but the old men of the regime in Lebanon. President
Michel Aoun’s delay in designating a prime minister to form a government to
embark on serious, technocratic solutions to save Lebanon from total collapse
could be a fateful gamble. Indeed, it could mean that he will be the person to
blame if Lebanon descends into chaos.
Meanwhile, the Iranian leadership appears to be extremely panicked by the
prospect of an internal eruption and an uprising against the regime, encouraged
by the protests in Lebanon and Iraq. According to sources, Iran could be
considering an escalation to divert attention away from what is happen
domestically. Targeting tankers and other vital installations in the Gulf
remains a possibility. In Lebanon, Iran is making frantic calculations, since
Hezbollah is a precious card. The Iranians are keen to keep Lebanon under the
yoke by ensuring Hezbollah dominates any government in Lebanon. Important
decisions could be made in this regard, following a meeting of the Iranian
leadership on Monday, decisions that could include extinguishing the Lebanese
revolution at any cost.
It is not the youth who will tire first but the old men of the regime in
Lebanon. Iran's leadership has so far decided to treat the Lebanese uprising as
something that targets corruption primarily rather than Hezbollah. This line of
thinking is convenient for Tehran for now. But the question remains in the mind
of Iran’s leaders: what kind of stability can be restored in Lebanon and where
would that leave Hezbollah? Iran’s clear priority is that Hezbollah must step up
its domination over Lebanon. The regime could resort to major escalation abroad
to mask its failure, which has led to an economic crisis, isolation and
sanctions. Leaders are currently in the process of ramping up Iran’s nuclear
capabilities to provoke counter actions and rally nationalist support for their
regime.
However, the sphere of influence that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
boasts of commanding is no longer working. Iraq has entered a cycle of chaos
which no political force, internal or external, can rein in. This cannot be
reassuring for the IRGC, which once thought Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces
were its trump card in Iraq. What we are witnessing is a major blow to Iran’s
regional expansionist project. Its leadership is studying frantically what its
options are in Iraq and Lebanon to safeguard the PMF and Hezbollah from the
Iraqi and Lebanese uprisings.
Hezbollah will continue to feel reassured as long as protesters do not demand
that it disarms and hands over weapons supplied by Iran. The group is betting on
the fidelity of the president and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, and the alliance
with their Free Patriotic Movement, to share power and control over Lebanon and
its resources. So far, this alliance has resisted the formation of a
technocratic government independent of political, ideological, partisan or
sectarian dictats. It is still imagining the uprising will be quenched but this
is delusional.
If Hezbollah comes to the conclusion that the revolution threatens its
privileges, it has the arms to force a qualitative change in its trajectory and
turn it from a protest movement into a civil war. For this reason, Hezbollah
leads the camp rejecting the movement's main demands.
If the decision to prevent the formation of such a government continues, Lebanon
is on its way to the abyss. The protest movement must therefore hold onto the
priority of installing a government of technocrats, then gradually demand other
issues in parallel with efforts to prosecute the corrupt and restore looted
public funds. Without a clean, independent government, no funds will come to
Lebanon to rescue its economy from collapse. There would be no prospects either
for new electoral laws or radical reforms.
What is coming will be very difficult. Hospital staff are already voicing alarm.
The coming phase will chime with the pain of the people, who will no doubt blame
the political class but could also blame demonstrators if they fail to develop
achievable goals.
The time has come for international governments and institutions to pressure
Lebanon’s leaders to stop stalling immediately, or they will be blamed for
letting the country spiral into chaos.
The revolution, for its part, must be conscious of the necessity of preserving
the state and its institutions. If the country descends into mass riots, the
army has a responsibility to distinguish between civil rights activists and
rioters. This is a dangerous and delicate phase but it will decide the fate of
Lebanon.
https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/lebanon-s-uprising-the-era-of-impunity-and-blind-obedience-is-over-1.935340
A New Arab Spring Is Unfolding in Iraq and Lebanon. But Things Could Get Bloody
If Iran Gets Its Way
Bessma Momani/Time/November 09/2019
Since October, protests in Iraq and Lebanon have re-energized the Middle East
region as hundreds of thousands of young people descend onto public squares,
repeating 2011 Arab Spring slogans that call for regime downfall. But while Iraq
and Lebanon could offer great promise if protesters learn from past failures in
the region, they could also prove to be bloodier if Iran gets its way.
What the Death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Says About the War That Killed Him
Middle East protests that have taken hold in the past decade have had their own
unique characteristics, but similarities between Iraq and Lebanon are uncanny.
Both are highly segmented societies that have undergone painful sectarian civil
wars. Both have power-sharing constitutions or political pacts that attempt to
keep the peace by dividing spoils of the state, government roles and
administrative positions, and parliamentary seats along ethno-sectarian lines.
But the more ominous similarity is the well-known interference of Iran into
their domestic politics.
Iran’s financial, political and military support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah and for
Iraq’s dominant political class in Baghdad from the Dawa party to the Hashd al-Shaabi
militant group is clearly menacing. In the early days of Iraq’s protests in
October, black clad snipers believed to be Iranian forces took to Baghdad
rooftops to take pot shots at protesters using live ammunition; in Lebanon,
unknown assailants believed to be with Hezbollah tore down protesters’ tent
encampments and physically assaulted protesters in Beirut streets.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already expressed his views on Lebanese
and Iraqi protests, a reminder that Iran knows how to deploy armed forces to
tamp down protests. The not-so-subtle warning was not just about how Iran
cracked down on its own 2017-2018 protests against corruption and economic
gloom— arresting almost 7,000 people and reacting to protests with force—but how
Iran effectively propped up the Assad regime to annihilate protesters with
brutal force.
Protesters have learned from previous Arab Spring masses to use their vast
numbers to barricade themselves from security forces and not give up an inch of
Baghdad’s Tahrir Square and Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square. They use social media to
garner global attention and keep the cameras rolling; and in the case of Iraqis,
they find alternate means of getting their messages and videos out to the world
when the government shuts down the Internet. Iraqi and Lebanese activists have
used non-sectarian and nationalistic messages to counter the existing narratives
of political incumbents. In Iraq, hashtags include ‘I want a nation’; in Lebanon
‘all of them, meaning all of them’. They have both held up posters that point to
sectarianism as the source of ills in their countries. Increasingly they are
also fighting against messaging from the Iranian government and its local media,
which says protesters are paid tools of Western intelligence services.
In Lebanon and Iraq, protesters want an overhaul of the entire political
structure that uses sectarianism as an excuse for ineptness, depends on cronyism
that leads to systemic corruption, and encourages political in-fighting that
leads to indecisive policies. Unlike previous Arab Spring movements, they are no
longer satisfied with the mere removal of a prime minister here and a president
there.
Both countries suffer from enormous dilapidation and underfunding of public
infrastructure and services. Young protesters have no memory of foreign
invasions and civil wars; they just want a functioning government to deliver
consistent electricity, responsibly manage state budgets, and find ways to
encourage job growth. Too many Iraqis complain that the security sector is one
of the few places to find employment; young Lebanese feel that with 40% youth
unemployment they have to leave the country with the vast majority of other
Lebanese to find decent work.
Iraq sits on a healthy current account surplus, and earned $65 billion in oil
export revenue in 2018 — yetits government cannot seem to provide clean drinking
water to the oil-rich region of Basra. The Lebanese parliament had the audacity
to ask for a 20 cent tax on citizens’ WhatsApp calls, while its Prime Minister
had given $16 million to a South African supermodel for no clear reason.
Like previous Arab Spring protests, Iraqis and Lebanese see corruption as the
cause of their countries’ ills. But they have an advantage that neither Egypt,
Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, or Syria had: they are imperfect and nascent
democracies. Using the ballot box to usher in competent new leaders is a
strategy and avenue for change that other Arab youth did not have.
This is also a challenge as the structure of the democratic process in both
Lebanon and Iraq favors sectarian parties over brokerage ones. The incumbent
political class will not want to dismantle the inefficient sectarian system that
brought them to power. And will Iran crush the protesters before they have a
chance to get their technocratic caretaker governments? For now, the at times
festive and carnival nature of the Iraqi and Lebanese protests mask nervous
fears on the streets that Iran would deploy its local militias to put an end to
the protests. That would foreshadow an end to the demonstrations, much like
previous Arab Spring protests.
*TIME Ideas hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in
news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. Opinions expressed
do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors.
**Momani is Professor at the University of Waterloo, Senior Fellow at the Centre
for International Governance Innovation and Arab Gulf States Institute in
Washington.
https://time.com/5721115/lebanon-iraq-protests-iran/
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on November 09-10/2019
Iran Says Enriching Uranium to Five Percent
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 09/2019
Iran said Saturday it is now enriching uranium to five percent, after a series
of steps back from its commitments under a troubled 2015 accord with major
powers. The deal set a 3.67 percent limit for uranium enrichment but Iran
announced it would no longer respect it after Washington unilaterally abandoned
the agreement last year and reimposed crippling sanctions. "Based on our needs
and what we have been ordered, we are currently producing five percent," Atomic
Energy Organisation of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi told a press
conference.
He said Iran has the "capacity to produce five percent, twenty percent, sixty
percent, or any percentage" of enriched uranium, a claim often repeated by
Tehran. Uranium enrichment is the sensitive process that produces fuel for
nuclear power plants but also, in highly extended form, the fissile core for a
warhead. The current five percent level exceeds the limit set by the accord but
is less than the 20 percent Iran had previously operated and far less than the
90 percent level required for a warhead. In its fourth step away from the
agreement, Iran resumed enrichment at the Fordow plant south of Tehran on
Thursday, with engineers feeding uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) into the plant's
mothballed enrichment centrifuges. Iran was already enriching uranium at another
plant in Natanz. Tehran emphasises the measures it has taken are swiftly
reversible if the remaining parties to the deal -- Britain, China, France,
Germany and Russia -- find a way to get around US sanctions. On July 1, Iran
said it had increased its stockpile of enriched uranium to beyond a
300-kilogramme maximum set by the deal, and a week later, it announced it had
exceeded the enrichment cap. The third move had it firing up advanced
centrifuges on September 7 to enrich uranium faster and to higher levels.
Iran says prepared to show footage of UN inspector incident
The Associated Press, Tehran/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iran said Saturday it is prepared if necessary to release footage of an incident
with a UN nuclear inspector last week that led to it cancelling her
accreditation. Spokesman for Iran’s atomic agency Behrouz Kamalvandi said “if
needed we will even present the footage of this.”He said during a press
conference that the Iranian government “legally speaking” had done nothing wrong
in blocking the female inspector from its Natanz nuclear facility on October 28.
Iran alleges the inspector tested positive for suspected traces of explosive
nitrates. The UN’s nuclear watchdog has disputed the claim. The incident marked
the first known instance of Iran blocking an inspector amid tensions over its
collapsing nuclear deal with world powers. The US unilaterally withdrew from the
deal over a year ago. State TV carried Kamalvandi’s remarks from the Fordow
nuclear site. He said Iran hasn’t imposed any restriction on inspections, but
warned against using them for “sabotage and leaking information.”Kamalvandi
noted that Iran’s "bitter experiences” of nuclear sabotage had led to the strict
system of checks.
Iran able to enrich uranium up to 60 percent: Official
Reuters/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iran has the capacity to enrich uranium up to 60 percent, a spokesman for the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) said on Saturday, far more than is
required for most civilian uses but short of the 90 percent needed to make
nuclear bomb fuel. “The organization has the possibility to produce 5 percent,
20 percent and 60 percent, and has this capacity,” AEOI spokesman Behrouz
Kamalvandi said during a news conference at the underground Fordow nuclear
plant, the official IRIB news agency reported. “At the moment, the need is for 5
percent,” he added. Iran’s highest political authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
said last month that the Islamic Republic had never pursued the building or use
of nuclear weapons, which its religion forbids. Iran said on Thursday it had
resumed uranium enrichment at Fordow, stepping further away from its 2015
nuclear deal with world powers after the United States pulled out of it. The
pact bans production of nuclear material at Fordow, a highly sensitive site that
Iran hid from UN non-proliferation inspectors until its exposure in 2009.
Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Fordow
on Sunday, Kamalvandi said. Since May, Iran has begun to exceed limits on its
nuclear capacity set by the pact in retaliation for US pressure on Tehran to
negotiate restrictions on its ballistic missile program and support for proxy
forces around the Middle East. Iran says its measures are reversible if European
signatories to the accord manage to restore its access to foreign trade promised
under the nuclear deal but blocked by the re-imposition of US sanctions.
Iran says case open on ex-FBI agent missing there on CIA job
The Associated Press, Dubai/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iran is acknowledging for the first time it has an open case before its
Revolutionary Court over the 2007 disappearance of a former FBI agent on an
unauthorized CIA mission to the country. In a filing to the United Nations, Iran
said the case over Robert Levinson was “on going,” without elaborating.
The Associated Press obtained the text of the filing Saturday. Iran’s mission to
the UN did not immediately respond to a request for comment and its state media
has not acknowledged the case. Iran’s Revolutionary Court typically handles
espionage cases and others involving smuggling, blasphemy and attempts to
overthrow its government. It wasn’t clear how long the case had been open. On
Monday the Trump administration offered a reward of up to $20 million for
information about Levinson. Combined with a $5 million reward already in place
from the FBI, this makes a total of $25 million available to the person or
persons providing information about Levinson. The State Department claims
Levinson was taken hostage in Iran with the involvement of the Iranian regime.
Rockets land near Iraqi base hosting US forces, no
casualties: Iraqi military
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 8 November 2019
A barrage of 17 rockets landed near a military base hosting US forces in
northern Iraq on Friday but caused no injuries or major material damage, an
Iraqi military statement said.A security source said the rockets landed near the
Qayyara military base. The statement and the source did not say who was believed
to have launched the attack. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Amid heightened violence during protests, Iraqi PM promises
new electoral reform
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi said on Saturday that the government and
judiciary will continue to investigate deaths and that all detainees will be
released, promising a new electoral reform "in the coming few days." This comes
after ten people were killed in Iraq’s southern city of Basra during overnight
protests where security forces used live gunfire to disperse hundreds of
demonstrators who tried to force their way into the local government
headquarters, medical sources told Al Arabiya on Saturday. The sources added
that about 180 people suffered injuries as protesters continue to gather around
the government building. Abdul Mahdi stated that all those who kidnap, arrest or
assault outside of the legal framework will face trial. “The protests have
helped and will help pressure political groups, the government ... to reform and
accept change. However continuing protests must allow for a return to normal
life, which will lead to legitimate demands being met,” he said. In a nod to
protesters demands, he acknowledged that political parties had made “many
mistakes” in the past 16 years. According to Iraqi state TV, masked gunmen had
attacked protesters in Basra on Thursday night, killing five people and injuring
another 120. In Baghdad, Al Arabiya sources said that clashes erupted between
hundreds of demonstrators and riot police in al-Rashid Street, where security
forces fired tear gas and sound bombs. The sources added that protesters tried
to reach Shuhada Bridge again, but security forces continued to block them for
the third day in a row. More than 250 people have been killed since the unrest
erupted Oct. 1. Demonstrators complain of widespread corruption, lack of job
opportunities and poor basic services, including regular power cuts despite
Iraq's vast oil reserves.
Iraq forces retake key bridges from protesters
AFP, Baghdad/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iraqi security forces wrested back control on Saturday of three bridges in the
heart of Baghdad that had been partially occupied by anti-government protesters
in recent days, AFP correspondents said. They retook the Al-Sinek, Al-Shuhada
and Al-Ahrar bridges over the River Tigris that link the east bank, where the
main protest camps are located, with neighborhoods on the west bank that are
home to government offices and foreign embassies. Operations have also resumed
at Iraq’s Umm Qasr commodities port near Basra, a port official said on
Saturday. All the port’s terminals were operating on Saturday, and ships began
to unload cargo at terminals, the source said. Umm Qasr receives imports of
grain, vegetable oils and sugar shipments that feed a country largely dependent
on imported food. Operations there had been halted for nearly 10 days as
protesters blocked the port’s entrance.
Amid volleys of tear gas, security forces chased demonstrators back onto Al-Rasheed
Street, one of Baghdad’s oldest and most celebrated thoroughfares. Protesters
still occupy part of Al-Jumhuriyah Bridge, the southernmost of the capital’s
bridges and the closest to the main protest camp in Tahrir Square. Over the past
two weeks, demonstrators had spilt over from the square, first taking over part
of Al-Jumhuriyah Bridge before creeping north onto the other three. But the
government ordered the security forces to keep them back, as Al-Jumhuriyah
Bridge leads into the Green Zone where parliament and the British and US
embassies are located. Al-Sinek Bridge provides access to the embassy of Iran, a
target for protesters who accuse Iraq’s eastern neighbour of propping a
government they regard as irredeemably corrupt. Al-Ahrar and Al-Shuhada bridges
lead to the prime minister’s office and state television headquarters.
Security forces have fired tear gas and both live and rubber bullets to keep the
protesters back. They have even fired machine guns. The sound of tear gas
canisters and stun grenades reverberated around central Baghdad nightly over the
past week. Fired at point-blank range, the canisters have pierced protesters’
skulls and chests, killing at least 16 of them, according to the United Nations.
Amnesty International said it has found the military-grade tear gas canisters
were Serbian- or Iranian-made. Nearly 300 people have been killed in
protest-related violence since demonstrations erupted on October 1 and swiftly
spread from Baghdad to cities across the south, according to an AFP toll. The
government has stopped issuing updated tolls.
Fresh clashes erupt in Baghdad despite call for calm by top
cleric
Reuters, Baghdad/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Fresh clashes between Iraqi security forces and anti-government protesters broke
out in Baghdad on Friday despite a call for calm by the country’s top Shi’ite
Muslim cleric, as authorities grapple with the country’s biggest crisis in
years. Security forces fired tear gas and threw stun grenades into crowds of
protesters wearing helmets and makeshift body armor on a main road in the middle
of the Iraqi capital, sending demonstrators scattering, some wounded, Reuters
reporters said. More than 260 people have been killed since the protests over a
lack of jobs and services began in Baghdad on October 1 and quickly spread to
southern provinces, according to police and medics. Police, the military and
paramilitary groups have used live gunfire against mostly unarmed protesters
since the beginning of the unrest. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who only
speaks on politics in times of crisis and wields enormous influence over public
opinion in Shi’ite-majority Iraq, held security forces accountable for any
violent escalation and urged the government to respond as quickly as possible to
demonstrators’ demands. “The biggest responsibility is on the security forces,”
a representative of Sistani said in a sermon after Friday prayers in the holy
city of Karbala. “They must avoid using excessive force with peaceful
protesters.” Protesters, some of whom view Sistani as part of the political and
religious system they say is the cause of many Iraqis’ misery, took little
solace from the cleric’s words. “He says he’s supporting protests and that we
should keep going but he hasn’t helped. The speech won’t make a difference
either way,” said one woman protesting in Baghdad whose son was killed in recent
clashes. “I’m the mother of a student. They took his life,” she said, giving her
name as Umm al-Shaheed, Arabic for mother of the martyr.
The demonstrators, mostly unemployed youths, demand an overhaul of the political
system and a corrupt ruling class which has dominated state institutions since
the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The violent response from authorities has fueled public anger. Snipers from
Iran-backed militias that have participated in the crackdown were deployed last
month, Reuters reported.
Deadly force
Live fire is still being used and even tear gas canisters, fired directly at
protesters’ bodies instead of being lobbed into crowds, have killed at least 16
people, New York-based Human Rights Watch said on Friday. Doctors at hospitals
have shown Reuters scans of tear gas canisters embedded in the skulls of dead
protesters. Sistani warned against the exploitation of the unrest by “internal
and external” forces which he said sought to destabilize Iraq for their own
goals. He did not elaborate. He said those in power must come up with a
meaningful response to the demonstrations. Handouts for the poor, promises to
try corrupt officials and creation of more job opportunities for graduates have
failed to placate protesters, whose demands include a new electoral system and
the removal of all current political leaders. The protesters have also rejected
foreign interference in Iraq, which has long been caught between its two main
allies and bitter rivals the United States and Iran. Public anger has been
directed particularly towards Iran, which supports the parties and paramilitary
groups that dominate the Baghdad government and state institutions.
Iraqi forces push protesters back to main square, kill five
Reuters, AFP, Baghdad/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Iraqi security forces killed at least five people on Saturday as they pushed
protesters back towards their main camp in central Baghdad using live
ammunition, tear gas and sound bombs, police and medics said. The clashes
wounded scores more people and put security forces back in control of all except
one major bridge linking the Iraqi capital’s eastern residential and business
districts to government headquarters across the Tigris river. Despite government
pledges of reform, security forces have used lethal force since the start and
killed more than 280 people across the country.
On Saturday, forces drove protesters back from some of the bridges they had
tried to occupy during the week and towards Tahrir Square, the main gathering
point for demonstrators. The protesters still hold a portion of the adjacent
Jumhuriya Bridge where they have erected barricades in a stand-off with police.
But demonstrators fear the next target will be Tahrir Square and Jumhuriya
Bridge. “Police have re-taken almost the entire area up ahead of us. They're
advancing and my guess is tonight they'll try to take Tahrir,” said one
protester, who gave his name only as Abdullah.
Reform promised, clashes flare
On Saturday, some demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails towards security forces
at another bridge, and young men brought unlit homemade petrol bombs up a tower
block nearby, preparing for further clashes. At a nearby makeshift clinic,
volunteer medic Manar Hamad said she had helped treat dozens of wounded on
Saturday alone. “Many get hit by shrapnel from sound bombs and others choke on
tear gas or are hit directly by gas canisters. People have died that way,” she
said as live gunfire rang out and ambulance sirens wailed. Police and medics
said five people were shot to death and more than 140 wounded in Baghdad on
Saturday. A Reuters cameraman saw one man carried away by medical volunteers
after a tear gas canister struck him directly in the head. As the violence
flared, Abdul Mahdi issued a statement which appeared to take a more
conciliatory tone and urged a return to normal life after weeks of unrest that
have cost the country tens of millions of dollars, although crucial oil exports
have not been affected. Earlier on Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul
Mahdi said that the government and judiciary will continue to investigate deaths
and that all detainees will be released, promising a new electoral reform “in
the coming few days.” “Political forces and parties are important institutions
in any democratic system, and have made great sacrifices, but they’ve also made
many mistakes,” he said.
He said protests were a legitimate engine of political change but urged
demonstrators not to interrupt “normal life”.
Abdul Mahdi promised electoral reform and said authorities would ban possession
of weapons by non-state armed groups who have been accused of killing
protesters, and that there would be investigations in demonstrator deaths. On
Friday, Iraq’s powerful senior Shi’ite Muslim cleric said that it was up to the
security forces to make sure protests do not descend into further violence, and
urged the government to respond to demonstrators’ demands as soon as possible.
“The biggest responsibility is on the security forces,” a representative of
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said in a sermon after Friday prayer in the Shia
Muslim holy city of Kerbala. Al-Sistani urged politicians to seek a peaceful way
out of the crisis and held security forces accountable for avoiding further
violence. In another development, an Al Arabiya correspondent reported that
internet access across Iraq has been cut. A wounded Iraqi demonstrator rushes
towards an ambulance during clashes with Iraqi forces in al-Khalani square in
central Baghdad on November 9, 2019. (AFP). In southern Iraq, operations resumed
at Umm Qasr commodities port, a port official said, after it was closed for
nearly 10 days while protesters blocked its entrances. Umm Qasr receives imports
of grain, vegetable oils and sugar shipments that feed a country largely
dependent on imported food. Ten people were killed in Iraq’s southern city of
Basra during overnight protests where security forces used live gunfire to
disperse hundreds of demonstrators who tried to force their way into the local
government headquarters, medical sources told Al Arabiya on Saturday.
US condemns Syrian government air strikes on civilians in
northwest region
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 8 November 2019
The United States strongly condemns air strikes by the Syrian government forces
backed by Russia targeting hospitals and civilian infrastructure in northwestern
Syria, Morgan Ortagus, State Department spokeswoman, said on Friday.“These
attacks over the last 48 hours have hit a school, a maternity hospital, and
homes, killing 12 and injuring nearly 40,” Ortagus said. “The latest reported
incidents reflect a well-documented pattern of attacks against civilians and
infrastructure by Russian and Syrian forces.”
Four Syrian soldiers killed in clashes with Turkish-led
forces
The Associated Press, Damascus, Syria/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Intense clashes broke out on Saturday between Syrian government troops and
Turkish-led forces in northeast Syria, killing at least four Syrian soldiers,
the country’s state media and an opposition war monitor reported. Turkey invaded
northeast Syria last month to push out Syrian Kurdish fighters near the border.
The Kurdish groups called in Syrian government forces to halt Turkey’s advance.
Syrian government forces have since clashed with Turkish troops and
Turkey-backed opposition fighters, despite a shaky truce brokered by Russia. A
cameraman for state-run Syrian TV was among those wounded in Saturday’s clashes,
according to both SANA and the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights. The Observatory reported the deaths of four Syrian soldiers, and said a
general and a paramedic were wounded. The Kurdish news agency Hawar said five
government troops were killed and 26 wounded. SANA said the clashes involved
heavy machine gun fire and occurred in the village of Um Shaifa near the town of
Ras al-Ayn, which was captured by Turkish-led forces last month. It later
reported that government forces took the village from Turkey-backed opposition
fighters. The Free Burma Rangers, a humanitarian group active in northeast
Syria, said four Syrian army soldiers were killed and seven were wounded,
including a general. It said they were killed and wounded north of the town of
Tal Tamr, adding that the rangers and the Kurdish Red Crescent had evacuated
some of the Syrian troops. The Observatory said the attacks involved Turkish
drones. Turkey’s Defense Ministry made no mention of fighting with Syrian
government troops in a statement on Saturday. The ministry did say it recorded
eight cease-fire violations or attacks carried out by Syrian Kurdish fighters in
the last 24 hours, despite separate truce agreements that Turkey has reached
with Russia and the United States. The ministry said on its Twitter account that
the Syrian Kurdish fighters attacked with mortars, rockets and sniper fire,
without saying where the attacks had occurred. Last week, Turkish forces
captured 18 Syrian government soldiers in the area and set them free hours later
following mediation by Russia. On Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu criticized a US decision to send American troops to protect oil fields
in eastern Syria, saying only Syria has rights over the country’s reserves.
The US has said the move is aimed at preventing the oil fields from falling into
the hands of ISIS militants. Turkey is concerned that US-allied Syrian Kurdish
fighters will benefit from the oil revenues. Turkey considers the Kurdish
fighters as terrorists because of their links to Kurdish militants fighting
inside.
“To come from tens of thousands of miles away and to say we will put the
country’s wealth, oil reserves to use is against international law. And we
oppose it.“ Cavusoglu said at the end of a regional economic cooperation
meeting. “These (reserves) belong to the Syrian people and should be used in a
way that benefits the people of Syria.”
Fierce clashes erupt between Syrian regime, Turkish forces
on border: Report
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Fierce clashes erupted between Syrian regime forces and Turkish forces in the
border town of Ras al-Ain in northeast Syria, the SANA state news agency
reported on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also
reported a violent attack carried out by pro-Turkish forces on the village of
Tell Shuir where fierce clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces have been
taking places since early Saturday morning. The observatory added that there is
intense artillery support from Turkish forces, stating that Turkish forces also
targeted regime positions in the area which lead to several injuries. It also
stated that Turkish drones continue to target various positions in areas between
Tell Tamr and Ras al-Ain. Turkey launched its third military incursion into
northeast Syria last month to drive Kurdish YPG fighters from its border and
establish a “safe zone” where it aims to settle up to two million Syrian
refugees.
After seizing a 120-km (75-mile) swathe of land along the border, Turkey struck
deals with the United States and Russia to keep the Kurdish militia out of that
area. Speaking to reporters on his flight home from a trip to Hungary, Erdogan
said Turkey would only leave Syria once other countries have left as well,
adding that the Turkish offensive would continue until all militants leave the
area.- With Reuters
Report: Heavy Fighting between Syrian and Turkish Troops
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 09/2019
Syria's state news agency is reporting intense clashes between government forces
and Turkish troops in the country's north. SANA said Saturday's clashes included
heavy machine gun fire and occurred in the village of Um Shaifa near the town of
Ras al-Ayn.
Turkey invaded Syria's northeast last month to push out Syrian Kurdish fighters
near the border. The Kurdish groups called in Syrian government forces to halt
Turkey's advance. Syrian government forces have clashed since with Turkish
troops and Turkey-backed opposition fighters. Moscow has brokered a shaky truce
in northern Syria, but sporadic clashes have continued. Last week, Turkish
forces captured 18 Syrian government soldiers in the area and set them free
hours later following mediation by Russia.
Kurds tell EU: Get tough with Turkey or face ISIS fighters
Reuters, London/Saturday, 9 November 2019
The European Union could face a wave of returning battle-hardened ISIS fighters
from Syria unless it gets much tougher with Turkey, including breaking off any
accession or trade talks, a senior Kurdish leader told Reuters. President Donald
Trump’s announcement in early October that he was pulling US forces from
northeast Syria paved the way for a Turkish offensive against the Syrian Kurdish
YPG militia who had been at the forefront of fighting against ISIS. Trump’s move
surprised both Britain and France and was cast as a betrayal by the Kurds, who
lost thousands of fighters in the battle against ISIS extremists in the deadly
crucible of Syria’s 8-1/2 year war. Ilham Ahmed, a Kurdish political leader and
co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) executive, said in an interview
that the EU should get tough with Turkey or it would soon face a wave of ISIS
militants arriving in Europe.
“The threat is very big due to the arbitrary way in which the United States has
withdrawn. This has allowed many (ISIS) members to escape and they will make
their way back to their countries to continue their terrorist activities.”“This
poses a big threat to Britain and to Europe in general,” Ahmed added.
ISIS once boasted a “caliphate” across swathes of Syria and Iraq and claimed
deadly attacks across the world, though it is now in disarray, landless and
leaderless after the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi during a US special forces
raid in northwestern Syria last month. But in the tumult created by the US
withdrawal and the Turkish offensive, Ahmed said, Islamic State fighters could
escape and travel over porous borders to Europe. She called on Europe to send
2,000 troops to secure the Syrian-Turkish border and prevent fighters crossing,
and to cease all arms sales to Turkey. “Our people are being killed by European
weapons,” she said. Turkey says it will ensure that any ISIS detainees in
territory it has captured will remain in detention.
Chemical weapons accusation
Turkey views the Kurdish YPG militia as a terrorist organization because of its
links to Kurdish militants in southeastern Turkey. The SDC is the political wing
of the Syrian Democratic Forces, of which the YPG is the main component. The
Kurds are mainly Sunni Muslims who speak a language related to Farsi and live in
a mountainous region straddling the borders of Armenia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and
Turkey. They have never obtained a permanent nation state. Ahmed also said the
West should investigate Turkey’s alleged use of chemical weapons against the
Kurds. She called on Europe to ensure Ankara was held responsible for what she
said were Turkish war crimes during its offensive. “EU-candidate Turkey is not
the same Turkey you think you know - it is now a radical ISIS and you, Europe,
should understand that,” Ahmed said, adding that the EU should cut off accession
talks with Turkey and scrap any trade deals.
“Turkey needs to be afraid and it is not right now,” Ahmed said, adding that top
level ISIS militants had found refuge in Turkish-controlled areas of northern
Syria. A senior US State Department official said last week that about 99
percent of some 10,000 suspected ISIS militants captured and jailed in YPG-controlled
areas of northern Syria since the demise of their caliphate remain incarcerated,
“and we’re quite confident that that’s going to remain that way”.Turkey has said
it would never use chemical weapons and that it has done its utmost to minimize
civilian casualties or damage to any religious or historic buildings during the
offensive. When asked about Trump’s comment - in response to accusations of
betrayal - that the Kurds had not fought alongside Allied forces on the beaches
of Normandy in 1944 against Nazi Germany, Ahmed said Turkey had not been on the
side of the Americans in World War Two. “At the time of Normandy there was no
Kurdish state or Kurdish entity to fight on behalf of the Americans - and Kurds
were the victims in that war while the Turks were not with the Americans at the
time. So I don’t know why Trump would say what he said,” she said.
Two security forces killed in blast in Egypt’s Sinai, say
officials
The Associated Press, El-Arish/Saturday, 9 November 2019
Egyptian officials said a roadside bomb has killed two members of the security
forces on Saturday in the restive northern Sinai province. The explosion hit
their armored vehicle in Rafah, a town on the border with the Gaza Strip. Two
other security force members were wounded.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to
talk to reporters. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
Egypt has for years been battling an insurgency in northern Sinai that’s now led
by an ISIS affiliate. The fighting intensified in 2013 after the military
overthrew the country’s elected but divisive Islamist president. Last week,
Egypt’s military said at least 83 militants have been killed in the past five
weeks in northern and central Sinai. Authorities heavily restrict access to the
northern Sinai, making it difficult to verify claims related to the fighting.
ISIS has carried out a number of large-scale attacks in recent years, mainly
targeting security forces and Egypt’s Christian minority.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on November 09-10/2019
Erdogan Labors to Explain Baghdadi and Family
Aykan Erdemir/FDD/November 09/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Thursday that the number of
people Turkey has caught with family ties to slain Islamic State leader Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi is “close to reaching double digits.” This is the latest in a series
of statements by Turkish officials designed to showcase Ankara’s vigilance amid
growing criticism of its negligence and complicity with the Islamic State.
Baghdadi’s death on October 26, less than three miles from the Turkish border in
northwest Syria, triggered allegations that the terrorist leader “enjoyed some
tacit Turkish protection.” A senior U.S. official stated, “Turkey did not
provide any assistance in this operation and [Baghdadi] was located right next
to their border. That shows you how little they do on countering ISIS.” Brett
McGurk, former U.S. envoy for the anti-ISIS Coalition, pointed out that the U.S.
had chosen to “launch this operation [against Baghdadi] from hundreds of miles
away in Iraq, as opposed to facilities in Turkey, a NATO ally, just across the
border.”
Complicating matters further for Erdogan, a November 6 exposé in The National
cited discussions with Iraqi intelligence officials to claim that one of
Baghdadi’s brothers traveled to Istanbul several times since the end of 2018. As
the U.S. Treasury Department’s April and September designations of Turkey-based
Islamic State financiers also show, the country has become an increasingly
permissive jurisdiction for jihadists.
Erdogan is fully aware that allegations of negligence and complicity are putting
not only him but also Donald Trump – his host at the White House next week – in
a difficult situation. The Turkish presidency’s director of communications
tweeted Monday that “Much dark propaganda against Turkey has been circulating to
raise doubts about our resolve against [the Islamic State].” To remedy Erdogan’s
tarnished image, the Turkish government has since launched an effort to
“publicize Turkey’s push to catch IS members who were close to al-Baghdadi.”
Turkish officials announced on November 4 that they captured Rasmiya Awad,
Baghdadi’s 65-year-old sister, alongside her husband, daughter-in-law, and five
children in a trailer near the northwestern Syrian town of Azaz, which has been
under Turkish control since September 2016. The next day, Turkish security
forces reported the arrest of five Islamic State militants, including the
group’s intelligence chief, through multiple operations in both
Turkish-administered towns in Syria and within Turkish borders. On November 6,
Erdogan revealed that Turkey also has been detaining Asma Fawzi Muhammad Al-Qubaysi,
the first of Baghdadi’s four wives, along with Baghdadi’s daughter Leila Jabeer,
since their arrest on June 2, 2018, in the Turkish province of Hatay on the
Syrian border.
While drip-feeding stories of his success against the Islamic State for three
days in a row, Erdogan criticized the U.S. for leading a “communications
campaign” about Baghdadi’s slaying. “We caught his wife, but we didn’t make a
fuss about it,” Erdogan said. Trump appeared impressed by the Turkish
president’s self-promotion campaign and tweeted about “a very good call” with
Erdogan, adding that the Turks “have captured numerous ISIS fighters that were
reported to have escaped during the conflict – including a wife and sister of
terrorist killer al Baghdadi.”
Ahead of his November 13 meeting with Erdogan, Trump should not fall for the
Turkish president’s public relations stunts. Instead, Trump should demand
tougher action against the full range of jihadist networks active within and
around Turkish borders, beyond just the Islamic State. Trump should also hold
the Turkish government accountable for the war crimes committed by its Islamist
proxies in northeast Syria. By aggravating instability in Syria, Erdogan
threatens to reverse the gains that the U.S. and its allies have made against
the Islamic State.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and a senior fellow
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to
FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more of Aykan’s policy
briefs, op-eds, and research, subscribe HERE. For more from CMPP, subscribe
HERE. Follow him on Twitter @aykan_erdemir. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP.
FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Turkey: Erdogan's Campaign against the West
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/November 09/2019
"Europe is a cultural continent, not a geographical one... It is its culture
that gives it a common identity. The roots that have formed it, that have
permitted the formation of this continent, are those of Christianity. [...] In
this sense, throughout history Turkey has always represented another continent,
in permanent contrast with Europe. There were the wars against the Byzantine
empire, the fall of Constantinople, the Balkan wars, and the threat against
Vienna and Austria. That is why I think it would be an error to equate the two
continents." — Pope Benedict XVI, Le Figaro Magazine, 2007.
In Germany, Turkey controls 900 mosques out of a total of 2,400. These Islamic
centers not only serve members of the Turkish diaspora, but also stop them from
assimilating into German society. Speaking with Turks in Germany, Erdogan urged
them not to assimilate, and called the assimilation of migrants in Europe "a
crime against humanity."
Erdogan has also been expanding Turkey beyond its borders – starting with
Cyprus, the Greek Islands, Suakin Island (Sudan) and Syria.
Mosques, migrants and the military are now Erdogan's new weapons in his threats
against the West.
Mosques, migrants and the military are now Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan's new weapons in his threats against the West. (Photo by Chris
McGrath/Getty Images)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan "has earned the title of Caliph"
according to Turkish journalist Abdurrahman Dilipak.
Erdogan is the head of NATO's second-largest army; he has spies throughout
Europe through a network of mosques, associations and cultural centers; he has
brought his country to the top of the world rankings for the number of
imprisoned journalists and has shut the mouth of German comedians with the
threat of legal action. By keeping migrants in Turkish refugee camps, he
controls immigration to Europe.
The worse Erdogan behaves, the greater his weight in Europe. In a 2015 meeting,
Erdogan reportedly was "openly mocking" European Commission President
Jean-Claude Juncker and other "senior European leaders", as Juncker asked
Erdogan to consider how he was treated "like a prince" at a Brussels summit.
According to Stratfor's George Friedman:
"Turkey now is the 17th largest economy in the world, it is larger than Saudi
Arabia, it has an army and military capability that is probably the best in
Europe, besides the UK and they could beat the Germans in an afternoon and the
French in an hour if they showed up."
Turkey's 2018 military budget increased to $19 billion, 24% higher than 2017,
according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Erdogan has placed Turkey's military -- once a bastion of Turkish nationalism
and secularism -- under his political authority. While Europe is pacifist and
refuses to invest in its own security or, like Germany, support NATO's budget,
Turkey is belligerent.
Ever since his Justice and Development Party (AKP) became Turkey's dominant
political force in 2002, for Erdogan, elevating the public role of Islam has
been more than a slogan. At public gatherings, the Turkish president has made
the "rabia", a hand gesture of four fingers raised and the thumb hidden, to
protest the overthrow of Egypt's Islamist then President Mohamed Morsi by
Egypt's military. Erdogan evidently sees himself as a global Islamic leader with
national elections to win. Through four million Turkish Muslims in Germany and
vast communities in the Netherlands, France, Austria and beyond, Erdogan does
indeed have enormous influence in Europe.
As a leader of the Ummah [Islamic community], Erdogan challenged the leader of
Christianity. In 2006, Pope Benedict XVI delivered a famous lecture at Germany's
University of Regensburg, where he diagnosed Islam as inherently flawed. During
his address, the Pope quoted a 14th Century Christian emperor:
"Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new and there you will find things
only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he
preached".
The Muslim world erupted in anger. In an apology tour of Erdogan's Turkey,
Benedict XVI reversed his firm position of just two years before and supported
Turkey's joining the European Union. The year before becoming Pope,
then-Cardinal Ratzinger had said that Turkey should never join the European
Union. "Europe is a cultural continent, not a geographical one," Ratzinger said
to Le Figaro.
"It is its culture that gives it a common identity. The roots that have formed
it, that have permitted the formation of this continent, are those of
Christianity. [...] In this sense, throughout history Turkey has always
represented another continent, in permanent contrast with Europe. There were the
wars against the Byzantine empire, the fall of Constantinople, the Balkan wars,
and the threat against Vienna and Austria. That is why I think it would be an
error to equate the two continents."
Ratzinger said the something similar in another instance, that "Turkey in Europe
is a mistake":
"The European continent has its own Christian soul and Turkey, which is not the
Ottoman Empire in its extension but still constitutes its central core, has
another soul, naturally to be respected".
Both Benedict and Erdogan understood that Islamic Turkey has been the nemesis of
Christian Europe -- from October 7, 1571, when Europe inflicted a catastrophic
defeat on the Ottomans at the Battle of Lepanto, until September 12, 1683, when
Europe again defeated the Turks at the outskirts of Vienna, the city they had
historically tried to capture as a base for the conquest of the rest of Europe.
It was in the half-century that followed the fall of Constantinople in 1453 --
the great Eastern Christian center, whose collapse marked the end of the
Byzantine Empire -- that Christian Europe started to expel the Ottoman Turks
from the continent. Now it seems as if Erdogan, by other means, is trying to
pursue a historic Turkish revenge on Europe. Erdogan is seemingly using this
ideology of conquest to cement his internal and external power.
Erdogan's most powerful tool in his relations with Europe has been migrants.
"You cried out when 50,000 refugees were at the Kapikule border", Erdogan said
in 2016, referring to the border with Bulgaria. "You started asking what you
would do if Turkey would open the gates. Look at me — if you go further, those
border gates will be open. You should know that".
Last month, during his military operation against the Kurds, Erdogan repeated
the same threat:
"Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: if you try to frame our operation there as an
invasion, our task is simple: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million
migrants to you."
Europe, unable to control its own borders, is stalling.
Since he came to power, Erdogan, in a building spree, has reportedly built
17,000 mosques (one fifth of Turkey's total). The largest is located in Camlica,
the Asian shore of Istanbul. From Mali to Moscow, by way of Cambridge and
Amsterdam, Erdogan is ceaselessly active in "diplomatizing" his religion. The
"biggest mosque in the Balkans" is Turkish and is located in Tirana, Albania.
"The largest in West Africa" was built by Erdogan in Accra, Ghana. "The largest
in Central Asia" he built in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The "largest mosque in Europe"
will be his new Turkish mosque in Strasbourg. He is planning to open Turkish
schools in France.
Erdogan has empowered Turkey's Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet), which
now has 120,000 employees and a budget the size of twelve other ministries
combined. In 2004, with 72,000 employees, the Diyanet was about half that size.
This is the religious network with which Erdogan has a foot in European affairs.
In Germany, Turkey controls 900 mosques out of a total of 2,400. These Islamic
centers not only serve members of the Turkish diaspora, but also stop them from
assimilating into German society. Speaking with Turks in Germany, Erdogan urged
them not to assimilate, and called the assimilation of migrants in Europe "a
crime against humanity". He apparently wants them to remain part of Turkey and
the Ummah, the global Muslim community.
Last year, Austrian authorities announced the closure of several
Turkish-controlled mosques after "children in a Turkish-financed mosque
re-enacting the first world war battle of Gallipoli." According to The Guardian:
As many as 60 Turkish imams and their families face expulsion from Austria and
seven mosques are due to be closed under a clampdown on what the government has
called "political Islam".
Austria's chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, said the country could no longer put up
with "parallel societies, political Islam and radicalisation," which he said had
"no place in our country".
Erdogan, however, knows that against Europe, numbers are on his side. "Make not
three, but five children. Because you are the future of Europe," Erdogan told
the Turkish diaspora. Eurostat, the official statistics agency of the European
Union, shows that in terms of birthrates, Turkey is ahead of Europe. In one year
in Turkey, more than 1.2 million children were born, while only 5.07 million
children were born in all of the EU's 28 member states. What would Europe look
like if 80 million Turks joined the EU?
Already in 1994, when Erdogan was campaigning to become the mayor of Istanbul,
he talked about "the second conquest of Istanbul". (The first conquest was the
defeat of Christian Constantinople in 1453.) According to the exiled Turkish
novelist Nedim Gürsel, Erdogan, when he was mayor of Istanbul, took it upon
himself to commemorate the Turkish conquest of Constantinople. "Celebrating a
conquest that took place more than five centuries ago may seem anachronistic, I
would even say absurd, to European leaders", Gürsel writes. "For Erdogan, the
capture of Constantinople is another pretext for challenging the West and giving
back to its people its repressed pride". Last January, Erdogan chose the tomb of
an Ottoman forebear to pledge a victory over Syria.
"You will not turn Istanbul into Constantinople", Erdogan said after the
Christchurch massacre. Erdogan is obsessed with history and takes it far more
seriously than Europeans do. "We will change Hagia Sophia's name from a museum
to a mosque", Erdogan said earlier this year. The Hagia Sophia, built by the
Byzantine Emperor Justinian I in AD 537, was for 900 years the greatest
cathedral in Christendom – until 1453 when the Ottoman Empire defeated the
Byzantines and took over Constantinople; then it became one of Islam's greatest
mosques. In 1935, President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk turned it into a museum;
Erdogan has pledged to turn it back into a mosque, and recited a Muslim prayer
in the formerly Christian site.
Erdogan has also been expanding Turkey beyond its borders – starting with
Cyprus, the Greek Islands, Suakin Island (Sudan) and Syria. "We are a big family
of 300 million people from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China", Erdogan
said in a recent speech from Moldova. The borders of Turkey, he stated in Izmir,
span "from Vienna to the shores of the Adriatic Sea, from East Turkistan
(China's autonomous region of Xinjiang) to the Black Sea".
To expand his country's influence, Erdogan is also using Turkey's military. "Not
since the days of the Ottoman Empire has the Turkish military had such an
extensive global footprint", the journalist Selcan Hacaoglu reports. The
Turkish-American political scientist Soner Cagaptay titled his new book,
Erdogan's Empire.
Mosques, migrants and the military are now Erdogan's new weapons in his campaign
against the West.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Court of Justice of the European Union Limits Free Speech
Judith Bergman/ Gatestone Institute/November 09/2019
"This judgment has major implications for online freedom of expression around
the world.... The ruling also means that a court in one EU member state will be
able to order the removal of social media posts in other countries, even if they
are not considered unlawful there. This would set a dangerous precedent where
the courts of one country can control what internet users in another country can
see. This could be open to abuse, particularly by regimes with weak human rights
records." — Thomas Hughes, executive director of ARTICLE 19, a non-profit
organization that works on "protecting the right to freedom of expression around
the world," October 3, 2019.
The judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union... appears to give
EU member states unprecedented power to determine public discourse online -- to
determine what citizens can and cannot read.... [T]he prospects now look even
bleaker for the future of free speech in Europe.
A recent judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union appears to
give EU member states unprecedented power to determine public discourse online
-- to determine what citizens can and cannot read. Pictured: The Court of
Justice of the European Union in Luxembourg.
On October 3, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruled in a
judgment that Facebook can be ordered by national courts of EU member states to
remove defamatory material worldwide:
"EU law does not preclude a host provider such as Facebook from being ordered to
remove identical and, in certain circumstances, equivalent comments previously
declared to be illegal. In addition, EU law does not preclude such an injunction
from producing effects worldwide, within the framework of the relevant
international law which it is for Member States to take into account."
The ruling came after the Austrian politician Eva Glawischnig-Piesczek, chairman
of Die Grünen (The Greens) party, sued Facebook Ireland in the Austrian courts.
According to the Court of Justice of the European Union:
"She [Glawischnig-Piesczek] is seeking an order that Facebook Ireland remove a
comment published by a user on that social network harmful to her reputation,
and allegations which were identical and/or of an equivalent content.
"The Facebook user in question had shared on that user's personal page an
article from the Austrian online news magazine oe24.at entitled 'Greens: Minimum
income for refugees should stay'. That had the effect of generating on that page
a 'thumbnail' of the original site, containing the title and a brief summary of
the article, and a photograph of Ms Glawischnig-Piesczek. That user also
published, in connection with that article, a comment which the Austrian courts
found to be harmful to the reputation of Ms Glawischnig-Piesczek, and which
insulted and defamed her. This post could be accessed by any Facebook user."
The judgment has brought concern among free speech organizations. Thomas Hughes,
the executive director of ARTICLE 19, a non-profit organization that works on
"protecting the right to freedom of expression around the world," said:
"This judgment has major implications for online freedom of expression around
the world.
"Compelling social media platforms like Facebook to automatically remove posts
regardless of their context will infringe our right to free speech and restrict
the information we see online...
"The ruling also means that a court in one EU member state will be able to order
the removal of social media posts in other countries, even if they are not
considered unlawful there. This would set a dangerous precedent where the courts
of one country can control what internet users in another country can see. This
could be open to abuse, particularly by regimes with weak human rights records."
According to ARTICLE 19:
"The judgment means that Facebook would have to use automated filters to
identify social media posts that are considered to be 'identical content' or
'equivalent content'. Technology is used to identify and delete content that is
considered illegal in most countries, for example, child abuse images. However,
this ruling could see filters being used to search text posts for defamatory
content, which is more problematic given that the meaning of text could change
depending on the context. Although the ruling has said only content that is
essentially the same as the original unlawful post should be removed, it is
likely that automated filters will make errors".
The judgment "undermines the long-standing principle that one country does not
have the right to impose its laws on speech on another country," Facebook
commented in a statement.
"It also opens the door to obligations being imposed on internet companies to
proactively monitor content and then interpret if it is 'equivalent' to content
that has been found to be illegal."
The ruling "essentially allows one country or region to decide what internet
users around the world can say and what information they can access," said
Victoria de Posson, senior manager in Europe at the Computer & Communications
Industry Association, an industry group that includes Google and Facebook as
members.
The judgment does indeed appear to be opening up a Pandora's Box for the
ever-shrinking space for free speech in Europe and potentially worldwide,
although it is still unclear at this point, how the judgment might affect free
speech worldwide.
Government efforts in Europe to censor free speech have long been ongoing: in
Germany, the controversial censorship law, known as NetzDG, which came into
effect on October 1, 2017, requires social media platforms, such as Facebook,
Twitter and YouTube, to censor their users on behalf of the German state. Social
media companies are obliged to delete or block any online "criminal offenses"
such as libel, slander, defamation or incitement, within 24 hours of receipt of
a user complaint. Social media companies receive seven days for more complicated
cases. If they fail to do so, the German government can fine them up to 50
million euros for failing to comply with the law.
The new judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union, presumably,
could mean that a German court could order what it deems to be illegal content,
or its equivalent, under NetzDG to be removed in other EU member states that do
not have a similarly draconian censorship law.
France is looking to adopt a similar law to that in Germany: In early July,
France's National Assembly adopted a draft bill designed to curtail online hate
speech. The draft bill gives social media platforms 24 hours to remove "hateful
content" or risk fines of up to 4% percent of their global revenue. The bill has
gone to the French Senate. Again, if the bill becomes law, the judgment from the
Court of Justice of the European Union could mean that French courts would be
able to demand that Facebook remove what the courts consider illegal content or
its equivalent under French law.
The judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union, in other words,
appears to give EU member states unprecedented power to determine public
discourse online -- to determine what citizens can and cannot read. It naturally
remains to be seen exactly how the judgment will be interpreted in practice by
national courts of the EU member states, but the prospects now look even bleaker
for the future of free speech in Europe.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Is Iran winning or losing?
Caroline B. Glick, Israel Hayon/Nover 10/2019
The anti-regime protests in Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran are a dramatic development
for Tehran. The less stable its neighbors, the more difficult it is for Iran to
set the Revolutionary Guards against Israel.
There’s an old Jewish joke where a young man walks up to his grandfather and
asks him how he’s doing.
The grandfather answers, “In a word, good.”
“And in two words?” the grandson presses.
“Not good,” his grandfather replies.
The events of the week call the joke to mind in relation to Iran and its war
against Israel and the United States.
On Sunday, a crowd of thousands gathered outside the US embassy building in
Tehran and chanted, “Death to America, Death to Israel.” The Iranians sounded
their customary death chants to mark the 40th anniversary of the seizure of the
US Embassy and the hostage crisis it precipitated.
Sunday’s demonstration was the opening shot in a week of hostile actions by
Iran. On Monday and Tuesday, senior Iranian officials announced they are
abandoning key limitations set on their nuclear activities as per the deal they
concluded with the Obama administration, the EU, Russia and France in 2015. On
Monday, Iran announced it expanded its uranium enrichment at the Natanz nuclear
installation with advanced IR-6 centrifuges, and that it is doubling the number
of IR-6 centrifuges presently being used.
Tuesday Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran is renewing
enrichment activities at its Fordo nuclear installation, built inside of a
mountain outside Qom. According to Rouhani, beginning Wednesday, Iran would
begin enriching uranium at Fordo to 5% by injecting its centrifuges with uranium
gas.
Many commentators responded to Iran’s announcements by declaring that the Trump
administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy for scaling back Iranian aggression
and thwarting its nuclear program has failed.
President Donald Trump’s campaign, which is enthusiastically supported by Israel
and the Sunni Arab states, is comprised of continuously escalating US economic
sanctions against Iran. Those sanctions are reinforced by US-supported military
operations by US allies – primarily Israel and Saudi Arabia – against Iranian
forces and Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
There are three legs to the claim that the maximum pressure campaign has failed.
First, its critics note, the US sanctions have failed to destroy Iran’s economy.
This week Foreign Affairs proclaimed that Iran has survived its sanction-induced
recession. Its economy, now at zero growth, is no longer shrinking. Iran’s
economic survival, Henry Rome, an expert on Iranian foriegn policy, said is
proof that economic pressure is insufficient to bring down the regime.
The second basis of the claim that the maximum pressure campaign has failed is
that Trump ordered the removal of US forces from the Syrian border with Turkey.
Trump’s action, his critics say, gave Iran and Russia control over the border
with Syria, which has allowed them to consolidate their control over Syria.
This, in turn, emboldened Iran to rachet up its nuclear operations.
Third, the critics say, the Iranian regime’s willingness to openly intervene in
quelling the mass anti-government protests in Iraq and Lebanon, as exemplified
by General Qassem Suleimani, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds
Force direct involvement in attempts to repress the protests in Iraq, and by
Hezbollah’s open efforts to stymie the protesters in Lebanon. These shameless
moves by Iran and its foreign legion to dictate the outcome of political unrest
in foreign countries, it is argued, means that Iran has consolidated its power
and has no compunctions about flaunting it.
There are a few problems with these claims.
First, the fact that the Iranian economy hasn’t collapsed doesn’t mean that the
Iranians aren’t constrained by the sanctions. According to the World Bank data,
Iranian military expenditures increased from year to year between 2014 and 2017,
but dropped in 2018. This week, US Ambassador in Germany Richard Grenell said
that Iran’s military budget shrunk by 28% last year. Grenell said that outlays
to the Revolutionary Guard Corps decreased by 17% last year.
So while it is true that the regime has survived, it is far from true that the
sanctions have had no significant impact on Iran. Moreover, even Foreign Affairs
acknowledged that it is likely that Iran’s ability to survive under the
sanctions is limited.
Second, there is reason to doubt that Iran’s announcements regarding its
stepped-up uranium enrichment describes a new activity.
In 2015, Barack Obama and his advisors insisted that the nuclear deal’s
inspection regime was unprecedented in its invasiveness. But this not true.
Under the agreement, Iran had the right to bar UN nuclear inspectors from
entering “military sites.” And under the agreement, Iran can label any facility
a “military site.”
The “invasive” inspections that have taken place have also been far from
exhaustive.
For instance, as the Los Angeles Times reported in late 2017, the nuclear
reactor at Natanz is monitored around the clock through closed-circuit video
cameras. The problem is that the feed does not go directly to the IAEA in
Vienna. It goes to the Iranian regime which then sends it on to Vienna.
Consequently, there is no way to determine whether the footage the UN receives
reflects what is actually occurring at the nuclear site.
The same article pointed out that IAEA inspectors did not seek access to the
most sinister nuclear installations, including the nuclear installation in
Parchin where Iran was suspected of having carried out nuclear explosive
testing.
“Nearly all of the inspections,” the paper reported “were of less sensitive
facilities such as universities and manufacturing plants.”
Diplomatic sources told the LA Times that the IAEA was “careful not to provoke a
confrontation by demanding access without evidence to sites that Iranian
officials have said are off-limits to foreign inspectors.”
In other words, we don’t really know what Iran has been doing in its nuclear
facilities. The IAEA defined its job as looking for keys under the lamppost and
declaring, every six months that it found no keys under the lamppost.
Perhaps Iran was moved to announce its breaches of the nuclear deal at Natanz
and Fordo because the US forces have Syria’s border with Turkey. But it is more
likely that Iran’s action was a distress signal.
In his statement Monday, Rouhani made clear the move is an attempt to extort the
Europeans into giving Iran money.
In his words, “When they, [Europe] fulfill their commitments, [i.e., give us
money], we will stop the gas injection.”
The US withdrawal from Syria’s border with Turkey did lead to Iran and Russia
asserting control over the border. But it also put Iran in open confrontation
with Turkey. For a decade, Iran and Turkey have been working together in busting
US sanctions and in undermining US operations in Syria and Iraq. Now that they
stand opposite one another at the Syrian border with Turkey, the future of that
cooperation is in doubt.
On Tuesday, Elizabeth Tsurkov from the Foreign Policy Research Institute posted
footage of Syrian protesters in Sharjah, a town in Daraa province in southern
Syria, an area under full control of the Assad regime, (which is controlled by
Iran).
The protesters were chanting “Free, free Syria. Iran get out.”
The protesters in Sharjah were echoing the sentiments of millions of Lebanese
and Iraqi protesters who have been out on the streets of their respective
countries calling for the overthrow of their governments, which are controlled
by Iran, and for a complete reordering of their political systems.
This then brings us to the third argument for the failure of the maximum
pressure campaign.
Far from demonstrating that Iran is fully in charge of Iraq and Lebanon, the
central role Soleimani is taking in quelling the protests in Iraq, and the
central role Hezbollah is playing in Lebanon in undermining the protests is an
indication of Iranian weakness.
According to media reports, Soleimani has traveled to Iraq twice over the past
month to oversee the repression of the protests, and Iranian-controlled Shiite
militias have so far reportedly killed 250 protesters and wounded thousands
more.
In Iraq, the protests are concentrated not in Sunni areas, but in the Shiite
south. And they are distinctly anti-Iranian.
At the same time the Iranian demonstrators in Tehran were shouting “Death to
America,” and “Death to Israel,” thousands of Iraqi protesters in Karbala were
throwing firebombs at the Iranian consulate in the city. They replaced the
Iranian flag at the site with an Iraqi flag.
Throughout Iraq’s Shiite south, protesters are throwing shoes and burning
pictures of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and calling for Iran to get out of their
country. The Shiite clerics in Najaf, the religious capital of Shiite Islam have
green lighted the protests against Iran. In other words, the Iranians are losing
their own backyard.
The sanctions are one of the causes of the protests in both Lebanon and Iraq.
Due to the economic constraints Iran is facing, it has reportedly scaled back
its payments to its proxies – particularly Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in
Iraq. These proxies in turn, have had to expand their use of public funds and
extortion to fund their operations.
The protesters in Lebanon are reacting to the economic failure of their country,
a failure which owes primarily to government corruption and incompetence.
Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government both through its own political
representatives and through its proxies. Consequently, it is the protesters’
main target. In Iraq, the Iranian run Shiite militias have also been feeding off
the public trough. They have commandeered public funds and institutions to pay
for their operations. And, according to a recent report in Tablet online
magazine, they supplement their income by making people travelling on roads
under their control pay “tolls.”
If Iran had more money to pay its proxy governments, presumably they would be
stealing less money from their respective publics.
In other words, far from having nothing to do with the protests, the sanctions
against Iran have everything to do with the protests.
The Lebanese and Iraqis protesting their governments and the Iranian regime
which controls them represent a profoundly negative development for Iran and its
40 year war against Israel and America. Together with Syria, Lebanon and Iraq
play key roles in Iran’s strategy for fighting Israel. The more unstable they
are, the less use Iran will be able to make of them in a future offensive
against Israel.
Today, at least publicly, Israel is focusing its attention on Iran’s nuclear
operations, and this makes sense. But actions to decrease Iran’s regional power
and to destabilize the regime’s grip on power at home are essential components
of any strategy for diminishing Iran’s capacity to attack Israel.
To date, the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy has not managed to
bring the regime down. And it is unlikely that on their own, US economic
sanctions will suffice to ever bring it down.
Yet as the mass demonstrations against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Iraq
make clear, the American strategy can and is undermining Iranian domestic and
regional power and stability. It is Israel’s responsibility to ensure that this
process is expanded and exploited to the greatest degree possible to diminish
the prospects of a direct Iranian assault on the Jewish state.
The High Risks of Soleimani’s Solution for Iraq
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
For almost two decades, a former bricklayer from Kirman, southeast Iran, has
been in charge of an empire-building scheme launched by the Islamic Republic in
the early years of the new century.
The man in question is Qassem Soleimani, believed to be “Supreme Guide” Ali
Khamenei’s favorite military commander. One of Iran’s only 13 major generals,
the highest rank in the regime’s military, Soleimani has the added advantage of
commanding his own military force, known as the Quds Corps that is answerable to
no one but Khamenei. In addition, when it comes to his army’s budget, the
general is given what comes close to a blank cheque. According to Iran’s
Customs’ Office, his Quds Corps also runs 12 jetties in two of Iran’s major
seaports for imports and exports that never feature in any official report or
data. Obtaining Iranian citizenship is one of the toughest bureaucratic ordeals
in the world. Millions of Iraqi, Afghan and Azerbaijani refugees, who lived in
Iran for years, were denied Iranian citizenship even for their children born in
Iran. And, yet, a nod from Soleimani or one of his aides could quickly secure an
Iranian passport for his Lebanese, Iraqi, Pakistani, Bahraini, Afghan and other
agents and mercenaries.
According to former President Muhammad Khatami, Soleimani ran his own foreign
office, appointing Islamic Republic’s ambassadors to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,
Jordan, Yemen and Afghanistan. Until recently, Soleimani could justify the
investment made in his empire-building enterprise as a success. This is how
Ayatollah Ali Yunesi put it: “Today, thanks to General Soleimani, we control
four Arab capitals: Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa.”
Official propaganda, ironically often echoed by Western media, portray Soleimani
as a latter-day version of the men of humble origin who rose to become Marechals
of an all-conquering France under Napoleon Bonaparte. Had he lived in Napoleon’s
time, Soleimani might have become king of Lebanon just like Marechal Bernadotte
who won the crown of Norway and Sweden. If the Tehran media are to be believed
Soleimani defeated the Israeli army in 2006, crushed Bashar al-Assad’s opponents
in Syria and dismantled ISIS’s so-called “Caliphate” in Iraq and Syria while
installing stable governments in Beirut, Damascus and Baghdad.
It is against such a background that the current popular uprisings in Lebanon
and Iraq, not to mention the Islamic Republic’s humiliating marginalization in
Syria are raising doubts about the official Soleimani narrative.
To me at least, it is clear that Soleimani has achieved virtually nothing in
Syria apart from helping prolong a tragedy that has already claimed almost a
million lives and produced millions of refugees. Regardless of what denouement
this tragedy might produce, future Syria will in no way reflect the fantasies of
Soleimani and his master Khamenei. The general’s scheme may linger on in Lebanon
because his cat’s-paw known as Hezbollah has a monopoly of arms while stealthily
purging the national army of elements that might not subscribe to Khomeinist
ideology. However, even then, Soleimani’s militias in Lebanon are likely to be
in self-preservation mode rather than acting as the vanguard of further
conquests. In other words, in medium-term, the Islamic Republic has already lost
in both Lebanon and Syria.
Though they would certainly puncture the myth of Khomeinist invincibility, such
losses could be absorbed because they would not directly threaten Iran’s
interests as a nation-state.
The case of Iraq is different.
To start with, Iraq holds Iran’s longest border- 1,599 kilometers- a fact that
poses major national security concerns. Iraq is also home to the third largest
community of Shiite Muslims after Iran and India. Iranian-Arab tribes have kith
and kin on the other side of the border with virtually all major tribes of
southern Iraq. Kurds living on both sides of the border provide an additional
human bond between Iran and Iraq. The two neighbors also share huge reserves of
oil, rivers and the Shatt al-Arab, a major estuary for both.
Soleimani cannot treat Iraq the way he has treated Lebanon and Syria. In
Lebanon, he could appeal to sectarian sentiments by claiming that it is thanks
to Tehran that Hezbollah now controls virtually all aspects of government on
behalf of the country’s largest religious sect.
In Syria, he could ally himself with a determined minority ready to fight the
majority to the end, convinced that defeat could mean total elimination. In
Iraq, however, the majority sees itself as Iran’s rival for regional leadership.
Even for Iraqi Shiites, it is Najaf, not Qom or Tehran, that ought to be the
beating heart of the faith.
To be sure, Soleimani still controls a number of militias in Iraq, notably Asaib
ahl al-Haq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the remnants of the Badr
brigade. It is also no secret that numerous Iraqi politicians, and mullahs, are
in Tehran’s pocket. It was no accident that the other day Sheikh Qais al-Khazali
simply recited an editorial from daily Kayhan, reflecting Khamenei’s views, as
his own analysis of the bloody events in Karbala.
Judging by noises made by Soleimani’s entourage and his apologists in the
official media, the general may be contemplating a Syrian solution for Iraq. If
he does take that path, he would be doomed to failure. Worse still, he might
create a major threat to Iran’s national security as setting a neighbor’s house
on fire is never a risk-free enterprise.
The wisest course for Iran, even under this weird regime in Tehran, is to lower
its profile in Iraq, contain its ambitions and use whatever influence it may
still have to persuade the Iraqis to solve their problems within a
constitutional system that has helped them come through one of the most violent
phases in their nation’s history. An Iraq where gunmen in Soleimani’s pay paste
portraits of Khomeini and Khamenei on every wall may look good to the
octogenarian mullahs still in control in Tehran. However, an Iraq where peace
and stability reign without the paraphernalia of Khomeinism is better for Iran’s
own national security and interests.
Once again, what looks good for the mullahs may be deadly for Iran as a nation.
Is It Even Possible to Change the Regime in Iraq?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/November 09/2019
The Middle East has indeed been shaken by revolutions of late, but no new
regimes have risen to power in any of the affected states.
Leaders left and governments fell, but the regimes remained strong in Egypt,
Tunisia, and Sudan. In Libya and Yemen, state institutions completely collapsed,
and so far both countries are still without alternative systems and affective
states. In the past few weeks, the world has watched the protests in Iraq with
some surprise because they were not expected to be so robust and sustained in so
many cities, and with such huge numbers of people involved. Even though
telephone lines and the internet were blocked, and notwithstanding a media
counter-campaign and premeditated murders, the protests have continued.
Despite the protesters’ efforts, they are unlikely to topple the regime. The
protesting masses can force the government to resign and change some political
decisions. Still, even if the demonstrators fail to overthrow the Iraqi regime,
they have already brought down the “halo” of the religious leadership and the
prestige of state institutions and humiliated the representative “symbols” of
Iran’s influence. Also, the unrest has united the demands and the regions.
Today, the protesters occupy squares and block roads, and troops close the
bridges to prevent them from advancing on government buildings. So they gather,
instead, at oil refineries and the country’s only port, Umm Qasr.
They want to access sensitive state facilities, but will not be allowed to do so
as the regime has enough weapons to ensure its survival at all costs, with the
Iranian regime in support. The latter has been present, through its leadership
and militias, since the beginning of the popular uprising, participating in the
repression and killings, and even directing the Iraqi security services.
That is why protesters went to the Iranian consulate and tried to burn it. They
did so because they believe that those who participated in the shootings were
Iranian functionaries.
Even though they have targeted oil facilities and the port of Umm Qasr, I do not
think the demonstrators embrace the idea of toppling the entire state system of
governance, because that idea is dangerous and almost impossible. However, if
the government continues to ignore the demands of the protesters and the
killings escalate, their demands could change to include the overthrow of the
whole regime, which is not currently on the table.
In the eyes of the protesters, the government seems powerless and not in control
of its security services or of the armed militias that receive their salaries
from the Iraqi government but take their orders from Iran.
As Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has said, the resignation of the government
is the easiest thing to promise protesters because it can do nothing else to
satisfy them. The overthrow of the government is simple, but the alternative is
no better. Parliament could be given more power, but it is worse than the
government because the militias and corruption are also present within its
ranks.
Well, what about handing power to regulatory bodies, such as the Commission of
Integrity or the Supreme Anti-Corruption Council? These, too, have emerged from
the same state institutions that are viewed with suspicion and distrust. The
commission has accused the former head of the main branch of Rasheed Bank of
involvement in the disappearance of 13 billion Iraqi dinars ($10 million), but
he has not explained what happened to the money. Meanwhile, the start of the
protests coincided with the announcement by the council of the dismissal of
1,000 government employees over their involvement in corruption. Even these
measures were not convincing enough to appease or silence the protesters.