LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 01/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.november01.19.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
We refuse to practise cunning or to falsify God’s word; but by the open
statement of the truth we commend ourselves to the conscience of everyone in the
sight of God
Second Letter to the Corinthians 04/01-06/:’Therefore, since it is by God’s
mercy that we are engaged in this ministry, we do not lose heart. We have
renounced the shameful things that one hides; we refuse to practise cunning or
to falsify God’s word; but by the open statement of the truth we commend
ourselves to the conscience of everyone in the sight of God. And even if our
gospel is veiled, it is veiled to those who are perishing. In their case the god
of this world has blinded the minds of the unbelievers, to keep them from seeing
the light of the gospel of the glory of Christ, who is the image of God. For we
do not proclaim ourselves; we proclaim Jesus Christ as Lord and ourselves as
your slaves for Jesus’ sake.For it is the God who said, ‘Let light shine out of
darkness’, who has shone in our hearts to give the light of the knowledge of the
glory of God in the face of Jesus Christ.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on October 31-November 01/2019
Lebanon’s President Seeks to Appease Protesters by Pledging Cabinet of
Technocrats
President Aoun calls for merit-based Lebanese government and shift away from
sectarian system
AMCD Supports the Protestors in Lebanon
Dr.Walid Phares: Lebanese protests are against Hezbollah
Presidency Says Aoun Working on 'Facilitating' Parliamentary Consultations
Khamenei Accuses US, Allies of Backing ‘Turmoil’ in Lebanon, Iraq
Report: Hariri’s Resignation Was 'No Secret' to Political Parties
France Urges Lebanese Authorities to Accelerate Govt. Formation
Lebanon Protesters Fight on Amid Political Deadlock
Paralyzed by Protests, Lebanon's Fiscal Crisis Worsens
Authorities Struggle to Reopen Roads as Lebanon Sit-Ins, Marches Continue
Protests Return to Lebanon Day after Hariri’s Resignation
Israeli military says attempt to down one of its drones over Lebanon failed
Hizbullah Fires Missile at Israeli Drone over Nabatiyeh
US, Gulf allies sanction Hezbollah-Iran network
Mustaqbal Slams 'Militia-Style' Attacks on Protesters, Urges Supporters Not to
Block Roads
Hizbullah Bloc Says Hariri Resignation Wastes Reform Time
Geagea Says 'Revolution' is 'Purely Lebanese', System Change Not on Table
Lebanon struggles to reopen roads as sit-ins continue
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on October 31-November 01/2019
US imposes sanctions on Iran’s construction sector
Qassem Soleimani tells PMU, officials to back Iraqi PM during Baghdad meeting
GCC Defense Ministers Assert Importance of Protecting Int’l Maritime Navigation
Syria’s Assad says he does not want Turkey as an ‘enemy’
U.S. House Formalizes Trump Impeachment Process in Landmark Vote
Turkish court rules to free ex-opposition lawmaker from jail
ISIS names Baghdadi successor, threatens US
Israel Rearrests Palestinian MP Khalida Jarrar
Kuwait’s Emir Holds Talks With Jordan’s King
Saudi King, Brazil’s President Witness Exchange of 4 Cooperation Deals
UAE Announces Return of its Forces from Aden after its Liberation
Israel approves more than 2,300 settler homes: NGO
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on October 31-November 01/2019
Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund it/Tony Badran/Al
Arabyia/Thursday, 31 October 2019
Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East
powerhouses/DEBKAfile/October 31/2019
Lebanon’s protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos/Reuters/Israel Hayom
Staff/October 31/2019
Iran’s Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq/Seth Frantzman, JPOST//October
31/2019
The Nasrallah — Bassil master plan ambush/Nayla el Khoury/October 31/2019
Iran’s Theory on Events in Iraq, Lebanon/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October
31/2019
Ordinary citizens have turned against Iranian proxies/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/October 31/2019
Song helps keep a lid on Lebanon’s factional differences/Tala Jarjour/Arab
News/October 31/2019
US retreat from Syria likely prevented war with Iran/Trump has learne the
lessons of history and does not want to repeat it./Mark Langfan, INN//October
31/2019
The Future of Oil/Noah Smith/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 31/2019
What Are Palestinian Leaders Afraid Of?/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/October 31/2019
Israel Blocks Terrorists, Palestinians Block Critics/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute/October 31/2019
The “Most Colossal Crime of All Ages/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/October
31/2019
Indifference is the EU’s greatest enemy/Bill Emmott/Arab News/October 31/2019
Students need time management skills if they are to succeed/Nidhal Guessoum/Arab
News/October 31/2019
Iran’s Nuclear Steps and the New IAEA Chief/Simon Henderson and Elana DeLozier/The
Washington Institute/October 31/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published
on October 31-November 01/2019
Lebanon’s President Seeks to Appease
Protesters by Pledging Cabinet of Technocrats
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Lebanese President Michel Aoun tried to appease protesters on Thursday by saying
that the new government’s ministers must be chosen based on competence and not
political affiliations. Aoun made a televised address after Prime Minister Saad
Hariri resigned on Tuesday following two weeks of anti-government protests.
Hariri handed the first victory for the demonstrators who are seeking the
removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and sectarian. The
president formally asked Hariri on Wednesday to continue in a caretaker role
until a new cabinet is formed. The new government should meet the aspirations of
the Lebanese people, Aoun said Thursday. Describing sectarianism as a
“destructive disease,” he called for the establishment of a modern civil state
and said that “putting an end to confessionlism would salvage Lebanon.” Aoun
reiterated that the people should pressure their MPs to approve draft-laws that
would fight corruption. “It is the responsibility of all sides to overcome this
crisis,” he added. Aoun also called for an independent judiciary in the second
address to the nation since the mass protests erupted Oct. 17. Banks, schools
and many businesses remained shuttered Thursday. But Lebanon's banking
association said banks would reopen on Friday to meet "urgent" needs. It asked
customers to keep "the interests of the country" in mind. "The association hopes
that all bank customers understand the current situation and respond positively
to serve their interests and the interests of the country during this
exceptional period," a statement from the Association of Lebanese Banks said. It
said the banks would open to meet urgent needs such as salary payments.
President Aoun calls for merit-based Lebanese government
and shift away from sectarian system
Arab News/October 31/2019
The president's apparent concessions are greeted with skepticism by the
protesters
Hezbollah parliamentary bloc says Hariri resignation wastes time
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s president Thursday said the country’s next cabinet should
include ministers picked on skills, not political affiliation, seemingly
endorsing a demand by a two-week-old protest movement for a technocratic
government. Michel Aoun’s speech came as Lebanese protesters tried to block
reopened roads and prevent their unprecedented non-sectarian push for radical
reform from petering out.It followed the resignation of Prime Minister Saad
Hariri’s government on Tuesday which had been met with cheers from crowds
seeking the removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and
sectarian.
“Ministers should be selected based on their qualifications and experience, not
their political loyalties,” Aoun said in a televised speech on the third
anniversary of his presidency, pledging also to combat corruption and enact
serious reforms. But his speech was met with disdain by demonstrators in central
Beirut who, in response to his words, chanted the popular refrain of the 2011
Arab uprisings: ‘The people demand the fall of the regime.’ Nihmat Badreddine,
an activist, said the president’s promises were “good in theory.”
“But there is no mechanism for implementation... and there is no deadline” she
said, expressing fears of a stalled process.
Sparked on Oct.17 by a proposed tax on free calls made through messaging apps
such as WhatsApp, the protests have morphed into a cross-sectarian street
mobilization against an entire political class that has remained largely
unchanged since the end of the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.
Some schools have reopened this week and banks were due to reopen on Friday, as
the protests piled more economic pressure on a country that has been sliding
toward debt default in recent months. Key members of the outgoing government,
including the Shiite Hezbollah movement and the Christian president’s Free
Patriotic Movement have warned repeatedly against the chaos a government
resignation could cause. “Lebanon is at a dangerous cross roads, especially with
regards to the economy,” Aoun said on Thursday. “So there is a dire need for a
harmonious government that can be efficient without getting tangled in political
disputes.”
Aoun has asked Hariri’s government to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a
new one can be formed, but Lebanon has entered a phase of acute political
uncertainty, even by its own dysfunctional standards. With a power-sharing
system organized along communal and sectarian lines, the allocation of
ministerial posts can typically take months, a delay Lebanon’s donors say the
debt-saddled country can ill afford. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
said it was “essential for Lebanon’s future that a new government be formed
rapidly to carry out the reforms that the country needs.”
The new government would need to “address the legitimate aspirations expressed
by Lebanese and take the decisions indispensable to the country’s economic
recovery,” he said. Consultations for the formation of a new government have not
yet started, such is the rift between Hariri and his coalition rivals, according
to a political source involved in discussions.
The source said that consultations are scheduled to begin on Monday.Aoun was
thought to be insisting on keeping his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is
Lebanon’s foreign minister and one of the most reviled figures among protesters,
in government. But “a technocratic government is a possibility,” political
analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb said. “It would have to ensure a short-term
stabilization of the economy, which has spiralled out of control these past
weeks, while ensuring economic reforms pass quickly, otherwise mass protests
will erupt once again,” she added. The fall of the government under pressure
from the street had led to an easing of the lockdown that has crippled the
country of six million inhabitants. While some life returned to Beirut and other
cities this week, die-hard protesters were reluctant to lose one of the few
forms of leverage they have to press demands that go far beyond the cabinet’s
resignation.
“Giving up is out of the question,” said Tarek Badoun, 38, one of a group of
demonstrators blocking the main flyover in central Beirut.
The mass mobilization, which has seen hundreds of thousands protest nationwide,
has so far been largely bloodless, despite sporadic scuffles with
counter-demonstrators from the established political parties. “We have decided
to stay on the streets because we don’t feel like the government is serious
about speeding up the formation of a cabinet,” said Mohammad, 39, who was
demonstrating near the northern city of Tripoli. Earlier, Hezbollah’s
parliamentary bloc said Hariri's resignation would waste time available to enact
reforms which are widely seen as necessary to steer Lebanon out of an economic
crisis.
In a televised statement read by one of its MPs, the bloc said parliamentary
consultations should take their “natural course” to start the process of forming
a new government. “The bloc called on the (central bank) to take all measures
and steps that would lead to guaranteeing avoiding the monetary situation in the
country spiraling out of control, especially at this delicate and difficult
time,” it said.
AMCD Supports the Protestors in Lebanon
WASHINGTON, DC, USA, October 31, 2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80069/amcd-supports-the-protestors-in-lebanon-dr-walid-phares-lebanese-protests-are-against-hezbollah/
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy supports the Lebanese demonstrators
fully and shares in their hopes and demands for a democratic, sovereign state
free from corruption, domestic militias, and foreign domination.
“The rampant corruption throughout Lebanon has facilitated Hezbollah’s control
of the Lebanese government and military,” said AMCD co-chair, Tom Harb.
“This corruption combined with Western sanctions against Hezbollah is now
plunging the economy into collapse.
As a result, the poverty rate in the country is skyrocketing. We receive reports
from the suffering people daily.”
“The resignation of PM Hariri and his cabinet is welcome news,” continued AMCD
co-chair, John Hajjar.
“We urge the Lebanese Armed Forces to continue to keep the peace and to put down
any violence forcefully, including the attacks on peaceful protesters by vicious
Hezbollah thugs.
Furthermore, we call on General Joseph Aoun, head of the Lebanese armed forces,
to protect the people as they demonstrate for their just cause.
And we demand full accountability for all those who have served in government
and any related entities or parties who have looted the country for years.”
“We encourage all friendly nations to stand in support of the Lebanese people
and their God-given rights to live in a free, prosperous nation that abides by
the rule of law,” added AMCD vice-chair, Hossein Khorram.
“Hezbollah should be disarmed and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard expelled from
the country so that the people can finally be free from their corrupt
domination,” continued Mr. Harb.
"We fear that Hezbollah may exploit the current crisis to tighten its grip on
Lebanon and suppress the will of the people.
We call on the US, France and other Western nations to take any and all steps to
prevent this from happening."
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
Dr.Walid Phares: Lebanese protests are against Hezbollah
MEM/October 31/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80069/amcd-supports-the-protestors-in-lebanon-dr-walid-phares-lebanese-protests-are-against-hezbollah/
A former advisor of US President Donald Trump has claimed that the people of
Lebanon are protesting against Hezbollah, Quds Press reported on Monday. Walid
Phares was Trump’s advisor for Middle East affairs during his election campaign.
Phares revealed that certain Lebanese activists had already contacted the
Americans and others in the Middle East regarding the protests. Calling on Trump
to help the Lebanese get rid of Hezbollah, he pointed out that two million
Lebanese protested in Beirut and other cities against the “corruption and
threats of terrorist” Hezbollah. “They are looking at you as a leader of the
free world and their voice for justice. They want to liberate Lebanon one more
time.” The US citizen of Lebanese origin said that the “real” protesters are the
normal citizens. “They are more courageous and clearer than those organised
‘bourgeoises’ who refuse to recognise until now that this intifada [uprising] is
aimed at Hezbollah.” He pointed out that the activists have called for
international protection for the people on the streets who are subject to
Hezbollah’s “violence and terrorism”.
Presidency Says Aoun Working on 'Facilitating'
Parliamentary Consultations
Naharnet/October 31/2019
President Michel Aoun is delaying the binding parliamentary consultations for
choosing a new premier in order to “facilitate” them, the Presidency said on
Thursday, after protesters on the streets slammed perceived procrastination.
“President Michel Aoun is carrying out the necessary efforts ahead of setting a
date for the binding parliamentary consultations… in order to facilitate these
consultations,” the Presidency said in a statement. Aoun is scheduled to make an
address to the nation at 8:00 pm to make three years since his election as
president.
Khamenei Accuses US, Allies of Backing ‘Turmoil’ in
Lebanon, Iraq
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei has contradicted himself by saying that the
demands of protesters in Iraq and Lebanon are rightful while accusing the US and
its allies of being behind the unrest. The Americans and Western intelligence
services "backed by the money" of some countries in the region "are causing
turmoil... to destroy security", said Khamenei on Wednesday. "The people of Iraq
and Lebanon have some demands that are rightful, but they should know these
demands can only be realised within the legal frameworks," he said in remarks
aired on state television. "The enemy wants to disrupt the legal framework. When
in a country there is no legal framework and a vacuum is created, no positive
action can be taken," he was quoted by his official website as telling
graduating army cadets. In an apparent warning, Khamenei praised Iran's
crackdown against street protests at home that started in December 2017 and
lasted till mid January 2018. At the time, he said Iran’s foreign enemies were
seeking to overthrow the country’s regime. The editor-in-chief of the daily
Kayhan, believed to reflect Khamenei’s views, on Wednesday renewed his call on
Iran-backed militias mainly Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to storm
the US and Saudi embassies in Baghdad. He said the two missions were responsible
for the recent turmoil in Iraq. Earlier this month, the newspaper urged in an
article the PMF to close “the house of spying,” in reference to measures needed
to be taken similar to the storming of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979, which
cut diplomatic relations between the US and Iran.
Report: Hariri’s Resignation Was 'No Secret' to Political
Parties
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Political contacts between officials have reportedly turned to a halt mainly
after the resignation of PM Saad Hariri, which came amid nationwide protests
against the political class, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday. Center
House circles, close to Hariri, told the daily that contacts between officials
were severed. They rejected reports that the resignation was infused by foreign
pressures. “It was made in Lebanon,” they said, adding that all political
parties were in the picture of his move which was deliberated for some time
beforehand. “No need to act surprised,” they said. The sources who spoke on
condition of anonymity said that Hariri did not ask to continue as PM nor did he
ask to be renamed, “but he would not hesitate to assume responsibility if he was
renamed as Premier.”Moreover, on Wednesday evening, a video was shared on social
media showing Hariri addressing a crowd of supporters in the Center House,
accusing figures that he did not name of “taking advantage, stealing from me and
in the end attempt to get a step ahead of me.”In another video, Hariri said he
has a “list” of names about some parties who “stole and took advantage” of his
position as PM. “Each one of them will be held accountable, God willing,” he
concluded.
France Urges Lebanese Authorities to Accelerate Govt.
Formation
Naharnet/October 31/2019
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian urged Lebanese authorities to
expedite the formation of the government as he defended the Lebanese’s right for
peaceful demonstrations. “Following the resignation of PM Saad Hariri, it is
essential for the future of Lebanon to accelerate the formation of a government
that can proceed with the necessary reforms the country needs,” said Le Drian on
his Twitter account. “The Lebanese’s right for peaceful demonstrations must be
preserved,” he stressed. On Tuesday, Le Drian stated that the resignation of
Lebanon's government in response to nearly two weeks of countrywide protests has
made the crisis there "even more serious.” Hariri earlier had announced he was
submitting the resignation of his government, bowing to rising public pressure.
A nationwide protest movement has gripped Lebanon for almost two weeks, calling
for an overhaul of a political class viewed as incompetent and corrupt.
Lebanon Protesters Fight on Amid Political Deadlock
Agence France Presse//Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese protesters faced off with security forces Thursday as they tried to
block reopened roads and prevent their unprecedented non-sectarian push for
radical reform from petering out. The resignation of Prime Minister Saad
Hariri's government on Tuesday had been met with cheers from the crowds seeking
the removal of a political class seen as corrupt, incompetent and sectarian. The
fall of the government under pressure from the street had led to an easing of
the lockdown that has crippled the country of six million inhabitants. While
some life returned to the streets of Beirut and other cities this week, die-hard
protesters were reluctant to lose one of the few forms of leverage they have to
press demands that go far beyond the cabinet's resignation."Giving up is out of
the question," said Tarek Badoun, 38, one of a group of demonstrators blocking
the main flyover in central Beirut. The tug-of-war between demonstrators seeking
to block roads and security forces under orders to reopen the country for
business repeated itself on Thursday. The mass mobilisation, which has seen
hundreds of thousands protest nationwide, has so far been largely bloodless,
despite sporadic scuffles with counter-demonstrators from the established
political parties. Some schools have reopened this week and banks were due to
reopen on Friday, as the protests piled more economic pressure on a country that
has been sliding towards default in recent months.
- Technocrats -
"The political class is banking on the protests running out of steam, that much
is clear," said Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations in Paris and
Beirut. "It hopes the Lebanese, choked by economic hardship, will resume their
daily lives," he said. President Michel Aoun has asked Hariri's government to
stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new one can be formed but Lebanon has
entered a phase of acute political uncertainty, even by its own dysfunctional
standards. With a power-sharing system organised along communal and sectarian
lines, the allocation of ministerial posts can typically take months, a delay
Lebanon's donors say the debt-ridden country can ill afford. French Foreign
Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was "essential for Lebanon's future that a
new government be formed rapidly to carry out the reforms that the country
needs". The new government would need to "address the legitimate aspirations
expressed by Lebanese and take the decisions indispensable to the country's
economic recovery," he said.
France is a major donor and retains significant influence in its former colony.
According to press reports, consultations for the formation of a new government
are barely under way, such is the rift between Hariri and his coalition rivals.
Among the possible scenarios is one which would see Hariri return at the helm of
revamped line-up that includes technocrats, one of the demands of the
protesters. "A technocratic government is a possibility," political analyst Amal
Saad-Ghorayeb said. "It would have to ensure a short-term stabilisation of the
economy which has spiralled out of control these past weeks, while ensuring
economic reforms pass quickly otherwise mass protests will erupt once again,"
she said. The Hezbollah movement headed by Hassan Nasrallah was a key player in
the outgoing government and had warned repeatedly against the chaos a government
resignation could cause. The Shiite movement is allied to the Christian movement
of President Michel Aoun, who had also counselled against a mass resignation. He
is thought to be insisting on keeping his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is
Lebanon's foreign minister and one of the most reviled figures among protesters,
in government. Aoun, who was elected president exactly three years ago, was
expected to give a speech later Thursday.
Paralyzed by Protests, Lebanon's Fiscal Crisis Worsens
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese banks have been closed for the last two weeks as the government
grapples with mass demonstrations that have paralyzed the country, but an even
greater crisis may set in when they reopen Friday. There are concerns the
government may not have enough foreign reserves to defend its flagging currency,
service its massive debt, and maintain the import of vital goods, particularly
if there is a run on the banks. Lebanon, one of the most heavily indebted
countries in the world, already was dealing with a severe fiscal crisis before
the protests began, one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive
patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.
A proposed tax on the WhatsApp messenger service, coming on the heels of a
deeply unpopular austerity package, sent hundreds of thousands of people into
the streets starting on Oct. 17 in the largest protests the country has seen in
more than a decade.
Banks have remained closed since then, as protesters have packed public squares
and blocked major thoroughfares, bringing the country to a halt in hopes of
pressuring the government to resign. The army reopened roads on Wednesday as the
protesters stood down in the wake of their first victory, the resignation of
Prime Minister Saad Hariri the night before. The Association of Banks in Lebanon
said banks would reopen Friday for the first time since the protests began. The
bank closures have taken a toll on ordinary Lebanese, preventing employers from
distributing salaries and making it increasingly difficult to acquire U.S.
dollars, which have long been widely used as a second currency. Small businesses
that need foreign currency to import products have had to do without or turn to
a newly emerged black market. Fawaz, the owner of a shop selling men's suits in
Beirut's Hamra shopping district, said he hasn't had a customer since the
demonstrations began."I had already sent an advance payment for goods from
Italy, but I told them to keep it, to hold onto it for another three months
until the situation is clearer," he said, asking that his last name not be used
so as not to attract negative attention to his business. "I'm buying expensive
goods from Italy and the people here can't afford it," he said. "Before
everything else, they have to pay rent and buy food."Few blame the protesters,
who have united Lebanese from the country's many religious sects and factions
against the political class that has ruled since the 1975-1990 civil war, and
which is widely seen as having tanked the economy.
"The cost the political elite have imposed on the Lebanese population is in
billions of dollars of public theft and mismanagement of the economy," said Sami
Atallah, an economist who heads the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
"So to me, whatever the cost of stopping the country from functioning over the
last 12 days is peanuts compared to the mismanagement and the theft that the
political parties have inflicted on us." The sectarian political system put in
place after the civil war distributes political power and high offices to
Lebanon's various religious sects. While it has kept the country from slipping
back into armed conflict, it has transformed parties into political machines
that maintain loyalty by distributing government jobs, contracts and other
favors to supporters. The result is a bloated and costly public sector that
struggles to provide even basic services like electricity, water and trash
collection.
Lebanon's national debt currently stands at $86 billion, or more than 150% of
GDP, much of it tied to high-interest loans that impose additional obligations
on the government. Meanwhile, inflows of foreign currency have dropped in recent
years, in part because of the instability in neighboring Syria.
Even if there is no run on the banks Friday, experts say the political vacuum
that is sure to follow the government's resignation is likely to delay enacting
necessary reforms, worsening the situation. Forming a government typically
involves weeks or even months of political wrangling.
Atallah says a lack of transparency makes it impossible to know how much foreign
reserves the central bank has and whether it can meet its obligations.
"The numbers are murky," he said. "We know some things about the foreign
reserves, but we don't know how much of it is usable, that can actually be used
to defend the exchange rate."
The World Bank estimated that the Lebanese central bank had $39.7 billion in
foreign reserves at the end of last year, saying it was equivalent to about 13½
months of imports of goods and services. The tiny country imports vital goods
like wheat, oil and medicine, which requires considerable foreign exchange.
Banks may be forced to impose capital controls in order to hold onto their
dollar reserves, which could deepen the uncertainty and inflict even more damage
on the economy. The Lebanese pound is already said to be trading at up to 2,000
to the dollar on the black market, a devaluation of up to 30% from the official
rate.
Ghazi Wazni, another economist, says people began converting pounds to dollars
and spiriting them out of the country long before the protests, estimating that
some $5 billion has been transferred abroad since the start of the year. He
expects the banks to impose some form of controls to prevent a run on deposits.
On Tuesday, the Fitch ratings agency downgraded Byblos Bank and Bank Audi, two
top lenders. It said Lebanese authorities would have a "high propensity" to
support both banks, but might be unable to do so. More than two weeks before the
protests began, the Moody's ratings agency put the government "under review for
downgrade" from its Caa1 issuer rating. It said the decision reflects the
"recent significant tightening in external financing conditions and the reversal
in the bank deposit inflows that are essential in enabling Lebanon to meet the
government's financing needs."It said the government's increased reliance on
reserves to meet payments on foreign currency bonds "risks destabilizing (its)
ability to sustain the currency peg and ensure financial stability over the
longer term."
Authorities Struggle to Reopen Roads as Lebanon Sit-Ins,
Marches Continue
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese security forces were still struggling to open some roads Thursday as
protesters continued their civil disobedience campaign in support of nationwide
anti-government demonstrations. Protesters meanwhile staged a rally outside the
central bank in Beirut’s Hamra area before marching to the Ring highway and
Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut – areas which have witnessed attacks on
protesters by supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement. Banks, schools and
many businesses have been shuttered since mass protests erupted Oct. 17. The
protests were ignited by a proposed tax on the WhatsApp messenger service but
rapidly escalated into calls for the resignation of the government and sweeping
political change. Schools had been set to reopen for the first time in two
weeks, but late Wednesday many parents received text messages saying their
schools would remain closed for security reasons. The state-run National News
Agency reported that schools in some areas would remain closed until further
notice. Banks were set to reopen Friday, amid concerns the severe fiscal crisis
that preceded the protests could worsen. Government offices and businesses
meanwhile remained shuttered across northern Lebanon after overnight clashes in
which the army used tear gas to disperse protesters, wounding seven of them.
President Michel Aoun, one of the main targets of the protesters' anger, was set
to deliver a speech later in the day. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned
Tuesday, handing the demonstrators their first victory but plunging the country
into greater uncertainty. It typically takes weeks or even months to form a
government.
"They are trying to divide the street, but the street has one clear demand: We
want to breathe clean air and stop the theft," said Rania, a protester in Beirut
who declined to give her last name for security reasons. France called on
Lebanon to "quickly" form a new government. "Everything must be done to avoid
provocations and violence and preserve the citizens' right to demonstrate
peacefully," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement. "It is
crucial for Lebanon's future that a new government is quickly formed that is
able to lead reforms the country needs." France, Lebanon's former colonial
ruler, has close ties to Hariri and other Lebanese leaders. The protesters stood
down Wednesday as the army cleared most major thoroughfares, but they packed
public squares that night and returned to the streets a day later, insisting
their revolution was far from over.
Walid Rihani, a university professor, said the protesters want a government of
technocrats and early parliamentary elections.
"We are back on the streets to remind (them) that the formation of a new
government should not take more than 48 hours," he said. The protesters have
been sitting or lying in the roads, forcing security forces to drag them away by
their arms and legs. In some places, security forces have removed piles of
burning tires, concrete blocks and other physical roadblocks. There have been
scuffles but no reports of serious clashes or injuries. On Tuesday, hundreds of
supporters of Hizbullah and the allied AMAL Movement rampaged through the main
protest camp, smashing chairs and setting fire to tents. Security forces
dispersed them with tear gas and the protesters returned a couple hours later,
repairing the tents and resuming their sit-in. The government is dominated by
allies of the Iran-backed Hizbullah, which has accused unnamed foreign powers of
exploiting the protests to undermine it.
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has
dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several
former warlords and their relatives. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement
that ended the war gave birth to political machines that have drained the
treasury and eroded public services. Three decades after the end of the war,
Lebanon still experiences frequent power outages, the water supply is unreliable
and trash often goes uncollected. The country is meanwhile $86 billion in debt,
accounting for 150% of its GDP. Rania, the protester, said the demonstrators are
determined to stay in the streets as long as it takes. "We don't want what
happened in 14 days to go to the dust bin," she said. "That is why we are here,
to keep the pressure on the government, and we will stay here. We won't leave
until you leave."
Protests Return to Lebanon Day after Hariri’s Resignation
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Protests renewed in Lebanon on Wednesday evening despite the calm the country
witnessed a day after the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. A number of
Lebanese protesters were seen demonstrating and blocking some roads across the
country. At the so-called Ring bridge in Beirut, protesters cut one way of the
road and said they demand that political parties agree on a cabinet of
technocrats able to implement economic reforms. Other protesters blocked the
highway linking Tripoli to the Lebanese capital in the north with metal
barriers, saying that their protests should continue until all their demands are
met. Despite a decision by Caretaker Education Minister Akram Chehayeb that
schools reopen on Thursday, Lebanon’s National News Agency said many schools in
Beirut and areas surrounding it decided late Wednesday to remain closed the next
day. Separately, the Free Patriotic Movement, which is headed by caretaker
Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, rejected that Hariri heads a
nonpartisan government. “The FPM supports applying the same norms when forming
the next cabinet,” Antoine Constantine, a senior adviser to Bassil, told Asharq
Al-Awsat on Wednesday.
Therefore, he said, if a decision is taken to form a nonpartisan government, the
same norms should be applied on the Prime Minister. This means the FPM would not
accept that Hariri heads a cabinet of technocrats. The Progressive Socialist
Party (PSP) of Walid Jumblatt said it would support Hariri for being renamed
prime minister if the circumstances allow. PSP media officer Rami Rayyes told
Asharq Al-Awsat that it was still very early to say whether the party would join
the new government. For its part, the Lebanese Forces said it does not object to
Hariri being tasked in forming the new cabinet.
“Currently, Lebanon needs a technocrat government, free of any political
representation, capable of salvaging the economic and financial situation and to
secure local and foreign support,” LF resigned minister Richard Kouyumjian told
Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday.
Israeli military says attempt to down one of its drones
over Lebanon failed
Reuters/October/2019
JERUSALEM: Israel’s military said an anti-aircraft missile was fired from
Lebanon at one of its drones on Thursday but the aircraft was not hit in the
rare launch. A military spokesman made the statement on Twitter after Lebanon’s
Al-Mayadeen TV reported an Israeli drone was brought down near the town of
Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon. Neither side immediately identified who in
Lebanon might have carried out the anti-aircraft fire. But an Israeli security
source said Hezbollah was responsible. Lebanon’s biggest militia, Iran-backed
Hezbollah had vowed in August to shoot down Israeli drones in Lebanese airspace.
That followed a suspected Israeli drone strike on a Hezbollah-linked facility in
Beirut. Tensions have risen between them as US sanctions squeeze Iran, which
Israel accuses of trying to set up precision-missile plants for Hezbollah in
Lebanon. Hezbollah has denied having such sites.
Hizbullah Fires Missile at Israeli Drone over Nabatiyeh
Associated Press/Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 31/2019
Hizbullah on Thursday said its fighters used the "appropriate
weapons" to confront an Israeli drone over south Lebanon, "forcing it to leave
Lebanese airspace."The Israeli army had earlier acknowledged that one of its
drones came under fire in Lebanese airspace. In a statement, the Israeli army
said an anti-aircraft missile was "launched over Lebanese territory" toward the
drone, but the aircraft was not hit. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency
said a large explosion was heard near the southern town of Nabatiyeh and that
Israeli spy aircraft were flying overhead at the time. The area is a stronghold
of Hizbullah. Israel is technically at war with Lebanon and in recent weeks
tensions spiked after two drones packed with explosives targeted Hizbullah's
stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs in August. Earlier this month, the
Lebanese Army accused Israel of having sent a reconnaissance drone over the same
area. Hizbullah vowed to take down Israeli drones overflying Lebanon following
the August incident, and on September 9 claimed it had downed and seized one.
The Israeli army confirmed that one of its devices "fell" in Lebanon, but it has
not commented on the August 25 incident.
US, Gulf allies sanction Hezbollah-Iran network
Annahar Staff/October 31/2019
The move is seen as an attempt to further tighten controls on both's group
finances. BEIRUT: The U.S and six Gulf allies have announced new sanctions
on four members of Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah and 25 entities
associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The move is seen as an attempt to further tighten controls on both's group
finances. The sanctions were set by the Riyadh-based Terrorist Financing
Targeting Center, which was founded two years ago, which includes Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as well as the United
States. The sanctions targeted a number of companies supporting the supporting
Basij Resistance Force, a subordinate group of the Revolutionary Guard, that the
Treasury said are used "to oppress domestic opposition with brutal displays of
violence" and supply fighters to regional conflicts.
US Treasury Secretary vows more economic sanctions on Iran. Among the 25
companies were Iranian Bank Mellat and mining and other manufacturing and
investment firms that allegedly support the Basij. Four of those listed were
individuals coordinating Hezbollah's operations in Iraq, the U.S Treasury said.
All 25 companies have previously been named in U.S Treasury sanctions announced
in 2018. "The TFTC's coordinated disruption of the financial networks used by
the Iranian regime to fund terrorism is a powerful demonstration of Gulf unity,"
said US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a statement.
"This action demonstrates the unified position of the Gulf nations and the
United States that Iran will not be allowed to escalate its malign activity in
the region," said Mnuchin.
Mustaqbal Slams 'Militia-Style' Attacks on Protesters,
Urges Supporters Not to Block Roads
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Al-Mustaqbal Movement’s political bureau on Thursday hailed the “peaceful”
nature of the “popular uprising” despite what it called “militia-style attempts
to harm it, derail it from its patriotic course and sectarianize it,” in
reference to Hizbullah and AMAL Movement’s attacks on protesters.
The politburo, which convened under caretaker PM Saad Hariri, emphasized “the
patriotic identity of the popular protest movement in all regions,” saying it
has strongly succeeded in “overcoming sectarian alignments and the barriers of
blind loyalties.”And lauding “the popular reactions that accompanied PM Saad
Hariri’s resignation and the popular embracement around him in the capital
Beirut and several towns and cities in the North, Bekaa and South,” the bureau
urged supporters in all regions to heed Hariri’s calls and refrain from
“provocation attempts and the blocking of roads.”
Hizbullah Bloc Says Hariri Resignation Wastes Reform Time
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc on Thursday criticized Prime Minister Saad
Hariri's resignation, saying it would "contribute to wasting the time available
to implement reforms," complicating efforts to resolve the crisis. In a
statement issued after its weekly meeting, the Loyalty to Resistance bloc added
that security forces must protect people's right to express themselves as well
as "their right to move freely in all areas of the country."It also condemned
"American interferences in the affairs of countries of this region," accusing
the U.S. of manipulating the peoples of the region to undermine their national
unity.
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is meanwhile scheduled to make a
televised address Friday at 2:30 pm.
Geagea Says 'Revolution' is 'Purely Lebanese', System
Change Not on Table
Naharnet/October 31/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has stressed that “the revolution that has
erupted in Lebanon was, is still, and will remain a purely Lebanese
revolution.”“It started spontaneously and voluntarily and it is about to produce
some leaders from among its ranks,” Geagea said in an interview with Emirati
newspaper al-Ittihad. He added: “The government’s resignation is not in itself a
goal but rather a first step towards rectifying the current course in Lebanon,
which has led to the very difficult economic, financial and social situations
that we are witnessing, and which have pushed people to take to the streets.”
“The only step that can correct this course at the moment is the formation of a
government that would be totally different than its predecessors,” Geagea went
on to say. “The issue of changing the Lebanese (political) system is not on the
table at the moment as much as the issue is about resolving the economic,
financial and social crises,” the LF leader added. He also called on security
and judicial authorities to seek the arrest of anyone involved in attacking
protesters.
Lebanon struggles to reopen roads as sit-ins continue
Associated Press/October 31/2019
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has
dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several
former warlords and their relatives.
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces were still struggling to open some roads
Thursday as protesters continued their civil disobedience campaign in support of
nationwide anti-government demonstrations.
Banks, schools and many businesses have been shuttered since mass protests
erupted Oct. 17. The protests were ignited by a proposed tax on the WhatsApp
messenger service but rapidly escalated into calls for the resignation of the
government and sweeping political change.
Schools had been set to reopen for the first time in two weeks, but late
Wednesday many parents received text messages saying their schools would remain
closed for security reasons. The state-run National News Agency reported that
schools in some areas would remain closed until further notice.
Banks were set to reopen Friday, amid concerns the severe fiscal crisis that
preceded the protests could worsen.
Protesters name and shame those who caused mayhem at Martyr's Square
Government offices and businesses meanwhile remained shuttered across northern
Lebanon after overnight clashes in which the army used tear gas to disperse
protesters, wounding seven of them. President Michel Aoun, one of the main
targets of the protesters’ anger, was set to deliver a speech later in the day.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Tuesday, handing the demonstrators their
first victory but plunging the country into greater uncertainty. It typically
takes weeks or even months to form a government. “They are trying to divide the
street, but the street has one clear demand: We want to breathe clean air and
stop the theft,” said Rania, a protester in Beirut who declined to give her last
name for security reasons.
France called on Lebanon to “quickly” form a new government.
“Everything must be done to avoid provocations and violence and preserve the
citizens’ right to demonstrate peacefully,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
said in a statement. “It is crucial for Lebanon’s future that a new government
is quickly formed that is able to lead reforms the country needs.”
France, Lebanon’s former colonial ruler, has close ties to Hariri and other
Lebanese leaders. The protesters stood down Wednesday as the army cleared most
major thoroughfares, but they packed public squares that night and returned to
the streets a day later, insisting their revolution was far from over.
Walid Rihani, a university professor, said the protesters want a government of
technocrats and early parliamentary elections. “We are back on the streets to
remind (them) that the formation of a new government should not take more than
48 hours,” he said.
The protesters have been sitting or lying in the roads, forcing security forces
to drag them away by their arms and legs. In some places, security forces have
removed piles of burning tires, concrete blocks and other physical roadblocks.
There have been scuffles but no reports of serious clashes or injuries.
On Tuesday, hundreds of supporters of the militant Hezbollah group and the
allied Shiite Amal party rampaged through the main protest camp, smashing chairs
and setting fire to tents. Security forces dispersed them with tear gas and the
protesters returned a couple hours later, repairing the tents and resuming their
sit-in. The government is dominated by allies of the Iran-backed Hezbollah,
which has accused unnamed foreign powers of exploiting the protests to undermine
it.
A senior member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc criticized Hariri’s
resignation, saying it would “contribute to wasting the time available to
implement reforms,” complicating efforts to resolve the crisis. Ali Mekdad said
security forces must protect people’s right to express themselves as well as
“their right to move freely in all areas of the country.”He said the bloc
condemns “American interventions in the affairs of countries of this region” and
accused the U.S. of manipulating the peoples of the region to undermine their
national unity.
The protesters have called for the overthrow of the political class that has
dominated the country since its 1975-1990 civil war, and which includes several
former warlords and their relatives. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement
that ended the war gave birth to political machines that have drained the
treasury and eroded public services. Three decades after the end of the war,
Lebanon still experiences frequent power outages, the water supply is unreliable
and trash often goes uncollected. The country is meanwhile $86 billion in debt,
accounting for 150% of its GDP.
Rania, the protester, said the demonstrators are determined to stay in the
streets as long as it takes. “We don’t want what happened in 14 days to go to
the dust bin,” she said. “That is why we are here, to keep the pressure on the
government, and we will stay here. We won’t leave until you leave.”
Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund
it
Tony Badran/Al Arabyia/Thursday, 31 October 2019
After two weeks of popular protests in Lebanon against the country’s corrupt
political class, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri has handed his resignation.
While some see this development as a victory for the protesters, such
assessments miss the mark. The same political barons will now consult to form a
new government, a process in which Iran’s arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has final
say. Far from signaling a change in the system, the episode will have marked its
regeneration.
Lebanon’s serious economic crisis, meanwhile, will still be there. Hariri’s
gambit is to return as the head of a new government, in partnership with
Hezbollah, present a plan for some reforms, and hope for a bailout from
international donors. For the United States, this is not a desirable outcome.
The Trump administration should carry on with its sanctions policy while
continuing to oppose a bailout for Beirut. Insofar as the new government will be
formed in partnership with Hezbollah, bailing out such a government means
bailing out Hezbollah.
Whatever happens in Beirut now, the protests have offered a good opportunity to
assess the American policy debate on Lebanon, and what lessons the US can draw
from it moving forward.
Prior to the outbreak of protests, the near-consensual view among Lebanon
watchers was that the country’s stability was paramount. Analysts and activists
therefore were adamant that the US must handle Lebanon with kid gloves. This
view decried any policy of cutting off aid to Lebanon or of harsh sanctions
which could undermine the Lebanese banking sector, which is the backbone of the
country’s economy. The criticism grew louder after the United States designated
the Jammal Trust Bank in August: push any farther, the warning went, and chaos
could ensue.
Proponents of this view argue that tough US sanctions, aimed at squeezing
Hezbollah, are misguided and ultimately self-defeating. If Lebanon’s economy
broke under US pressure, they argued, then the country would become a failed
state. According to them, Hezbollah would benefit from this breakdown, with a
broken economy and financially battered society signaling the end of any
domestic opposition to Hezbollah.
This approach is misguided.
The current protests, which have included varied criticism of Hezbollah, only
came about due to impending economic and financial collapse. It is unlikely that
they would have surfaced had the system been floated yet again, for instance,
through the injection of capital by well meaning but misguided Western powers or
Gulf Arab states, which in previous crises, had made large deposits in Lebanon’s
Central Bank. More to the point, such an investment in the survival of the
existing political-economic order would be an investment in the
Hezbollah-dominated status quo. Hezbollah, the most powerful actor in Lebanon,
had orchestrated the formation of the previous government, installed its ally as
president, imposed the electoral law of its choice, which handed its coalition
the majority in parliament, and it directly influences government agencies. It
will similarly be the decisive force in the formation of any new government. It
is no coincidence that the person who has spoken most forcefully in defense of
the status quo during the two weeks of protests, while issuing directives to the
government, is Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah — the real head of state.
To be sure, the popular protests were not an uprising against Hezbollah per se.
They were against the entire political class, of which Hezbollah is the head.
However, this new popular street action was discomfiting to the organization.
Especially disconcerting was the sight of Lebanese Shia participating in the
protests, and denouncing the political class and Hezbollah — regardless of how
mixed the references to the group may be. For instance, some protesters made a
point of expressing their agreement with Hezbollah when it comes to enmity to
Israel, or have pointedly avoided discussing the group’s armed status. Others
made an appeal to Nasrallah asking him to join them and back their demands,
thereby drawing a subtle distinction between him and the rest of the political
class.
Still, unpredictable and uncontrolled popular mobilization among the Shia was
not something Hezbollah wanted to see. Before Hariri's resignation, the party
was trying to figure out how to reassert its authority. Rhetorically, it
attempted to coopt the protesters’ demands for reform, but without much success.
At the same time, Hezbollah wielded the weapon of intimidation, both
rhetorically in Nasrallah’s threatening speeches, as well as on the streets,
through groups of thugs attacking protesters, with the most violent such attack
taking place in downtown Beirut shortly before Hariri handed his resignation.
Aside from Beirut, the group cracked down hard on Shia areas to neutralize those
regions and cut them off from the other parts of Lebanon’s sectarian geography.
Now that Hariri has resigned, albeit still serving in a caretaker capacity, what
happens next is an open question. The protesters had rightly dismissed Hariri’s
proposed plan for reforms. Will they now accept it, and whatever government
reshuffle Hezbollah and Hariri agree to with the other leaders, assuming it
concludes anytime soon? Likewise, will the European donors of the CEDRE
conference for Lebanon play along with Hariri's gambit and release funds,
whenever the new government is formed?
If not, will the protests pick up pace again? Lebanese banks, which had been
closed since the protests began, reportedly will reopen this Friday. How that
plays out and what impact it will have on the value of the of the Lebanese Pound
is unclear. On the day of Hariri's resignation, Fitch Ratings cut the rating of
Lebanon’s two top lenders, Bank Audi and Bank Byblos because of heightened
liquidity risks. Meanwhile, the government remains unable to attract capital to
finance its deficit. Lebanon's rot runs deep.
There is a longstanding conceit in Washington and in Europe that Lebanon must be
“saved” — an impulse undiminished by the fact the country is dominated by
Hezbollah, and serves as a hub for its operations and criminal enterprise.
However, a basket case run by a terror group cannot be treated like a normal
state. For the United States, the conclusion ought to be clear: the claims that
Washington should back off its sanctions policy lest Lebanon break, that
instability would only benefit Hezbollah, and that the US should continue
instead to invest in Lebanon’s “state institutions,” are deluded.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He tweets @AcrossTheBay.
Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah
as Mid East powerhouses
DEBKAfile/October 31/2019
The Hizballah “special forces” battling Lebanese protesters are bound to swap
their sticks for live ammo as Lebanon plunges into regime breakup amid a
crumbling economy. Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister on Tuesday, Oct.
29, did not of itself greatly impact the declining political situation in Beirut
– not only because he was not a strong leader, but because the sustained protest
across the country had already cast Lebanon into three major power groupings in
which he had no place:
DEBKAfile outlines those groupings:
1-The ruling caste led by President Michel Aoun and kin who are standing aloof
from the turbulence on the streets.
2-The protesters who have managed to sustain the momentum of their
demonstrations into a third week, while also preserving their non-secular
national unity of purpose – hitherto unheard of in divided Lebanon – in their
fight to be rid of a corrupt ruling administration. This could throw the country
into chaos or end in each group reverting to its ethnical-religious roots for
civil war.
3-Hizballah, which is watching its power bases in central government fall apart.
While sending his “special forces” to break up the street demonstrations by
force, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made the fatal mistake, maybe out of
panic, of lining up with the central government targeted by the protest
movement. This gave credence to the demonstrators’ demand to remove Hizballah
from any new national ruling administration resulting tomorrow from their
struggle.
It may be taken for granted that Lebanon’s various religious and ethnic groups
and factions have reacted to the burgeoning power of the street by busily
topping up their stores of weapons, ready to set up the lines for defending
their communities. The elements of civil war are therefore already being put in
place.
Here, Hizballah has the advantage – a paramilitary armed force unmatched by any
of its rivals. This Shiite group commands 25,000 men under arms, of whom 6,000
spent six years on the battlefields of Syria, and an arsenal provided by Iran of
some 130,000 assorted rockets. No rival group has the slightest chance of
prevailing over Nasrallah’s army.
Lebanon’s protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos
Reuters/Israel Hayom Staff/October 31/2019
As protests in Lebanon over the dire economic situation and political corruption
gain momentum, demonstrators’ irreverence toward senior figures who have long
commanded respect shatters social traditions.
Lebanon's protesters turn on their leaders, breaking taboos
Demonstrators wave Lebanese national flags during ongoing anti-government
protests at a highway in Jal el-Dib | Photo: Reuters /Alkis Konstantinidis. In
the protests sweeping Lebanon, nothing is sacred. Political leaders, who a few
weeks ago enjoyed the loyal support of core followers despite worsening economic
conditions, are now the target of many of those people’s ire. That show of
irreverence toward senior figures who have long commanded respect has broken
taboos, setting these demonstrations apart from previous waves of dissent. Saad
al-Hariri stepped down as prime minister on Tuesday in the face of mass protests
fueled by resentment against the ruling elite, whom people blame for the dire
state of the economy. The son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, Gebran Bassil,
who is also foreign minister, has become a figure of ridicule among many on the
streets of the capital Beirut.
Hezbollah, the heavily armed Shi’ite group widely recognized as the most
powerful force in the country, has not been spared. Chants against its leader
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah would have been unthinkable last month. Now they are
common. A man walks past a torn poster of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad
al-Hariri in Tripoli, Lebanon
In Nabatiyeh, a mainly Shiite town in the south of the country, protesters have
set their sights on Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, one of Lebanon’s most
powerful politicians whose Amal Movement dominates the area. “I have come down
to protest to bring down Berri who is a symbol of corruption,” said Koussay
Charara, a Shi’ite teacher who was one of the thousands of people occupying the
town square and surrounding streets. When hundreds of protesters chanted against
Berri in one of the town’s main streets, residents say they were attacked by
groups of baton-wielding mobs believed to be supporters of Amal and its ally
Hezbollah.
At least eight people were hurt, some of whom were hospitalized.
In other places in Nabatiyeh and elsewhere in the south, posters of Berri that
adorned government buildings were damaged by angry demonstrators. The politician
himself has sided with protesters, telling MPs from his party last week that the
crowds had achieved some of the changes that Amal itself had been demanding for
decades. A source within Amal said the tens of thousands of people taking to the
streets had made legitimate demands for greater transparency, accountability and
action against corruption. “The Amal movement and its leader were not surprised
by the social explosion that took place,” he said.
That explosion is pitting people once aligned in a single faction against each
other, adding to the sense of chaos in Lebanese towns and cities.
In Nabatiyeh, those backing Berri chanted their support.
“With our blood and lives we offer ourselves as a sacrifice for you Nabih,” they
shouted. Demonstrators stand on a bridge decorated with a national flag during
an anti-government protest along a highway in Jal el-Dib, Lebanon. New posters
appeared of the smiling politician, accompanied by the words “We are With You”.
Some Amal and Hezbollah supporters wearing black clothes and carrying sticks and
pipes attacked and destroyed the anti-government protest camp in Beirut,
believing the protesters were tarnishing their leader Nasrallah. It was the most
serious strife in the capital since 2008, when Hezbollah fighters seized control
in a brief eruption of armed conflict with Lebanese adversaries loyal to Hariri
and his allies. Analysts are taking particular note of dissent in the south of
Lebanon, because of the political dominance long enjoyed there by Amal and
Hezbollah. “There are more daring voices in the south. Demonstrations were
breaking the previous taboos in politics,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie
Middle East Center.
The north has not been spared either.
In the mostly Sunni Muslim city of Tripoli, one of Lebanon’s poorest, protesters
turned on their leaders by burning tyres near a villa owned by former Sunni
prime minister Najib Mikati. “You are one of them!” they chanted, referring to
the political elite they despise.
Ali Omar, a Sunni university teacher, said that a brief walk around Tripoli was
more than enough proof that parliamentarians and Sunni leaders had done nothing
for the city over the years. “Go look in the city and see the unemployment rate,
look at the electricity … go to the social security offices, look at the roads
with their potholes, at the oppression.”Tripoli has seen some of the biggest,
liveliest demonstrations of the past two weeks. People have gathered daily in
the city square, chanting and dancing deep into the night. Omar said people were
sick of spending their lives asking for favors or begging officials for their
basic rights. “Where are all these taxes going? Into their bank accounts,” he
said. “For 30 years we’ve been screaming … that half the youth are unemployed.
What do we have to do for you to hear us?”
Iran’s Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq
Seth Frantzman, JPOST//October 31/2019
You cannot protest in the Middle East. That has become clear in Iraq, as more
than 200 people have been murdered by snipers and security forces. On Tuesday,
Hezbollah and supporters of the Amal Movement Party attacked a peaceful protest
in Beirut, scattering soldiers and civilians and destroying their tents. Iran
and its allies are concerned that protests will challenge its attempts to slowly
consume Lebanon and Iraq. Any mass mobilization of young people or anyone who
wants to dissent must be crushed. In Iraq, it is being crushed with bullets and
tear gas canisters purposely fired at people’s heads.
In Lebanon, in front of the world’s media where Hezbollah tries to pretend it is
a normal political party “defending” Lebanon, it is crushed differently. But in
the end, Hezbollah, the “resistance,” is only good at bullying average people
and silencing them, just as it silenced former prime minister Rafic Hariri with
a car bomb in 2005. Today, Rafic’s son, Saad, is set to resign as prime
minister. It has been more than 14 years since his father was murdered and the
rage from the murder helped push Syria to leave Lebanon and momentarily left
Hezbollah stunned.
Iran is concerned that protests will challenge its attempts to slowly consume
Lebanon and Iraq.
But Hezbollah clawed its way back. It launched a war on Israel in 2006 to try to
gain legitimacy and to preserve its arsenal. Then, it involved itself in the
Syrian Civil War in 2012, sending its fighters there. It hijacked the parliament
and the presidency, forcing its candidate through. Even though it has only 13
seats in parliament, it is allied with Amal’s 17 parliamentarians and the Free
Patriotic Movement, giving it strength.
It showed its strength on Tuesday after a week of protests had left Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah wondering what to do. Nasrallah needs to pose as if he
is resisting Israel, not as if he is a stagnating oligarch thirsty for power in
Lebanon and seeking to wrap Hezbollah’s tentacles around the country. So when
young people came to the streets and inspired Lebanon in the last week, those
people had to be stopped, lest they take away the crown of sectarianism that
Hezbollah wears. Human chains and people doing nice things in Beirut, things not
involving showing off rifles and missiles and talking of martyrdom, the way
Hezbollah does in its rallies, were looked on with suspicion by Hezbollah.
Nasrallah has warned of “strife” and Hezbollah hints of “foreign interference,”
the conspiracies borrowed from pro-Iranian parties in Iraq. Nasrallah is a close
ally of Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah, and Qais Khazali of
Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Hadi al-Amiri of the Badr Organization, all of them similar
to Hezbollah in Iraq. Khazali even toured Hezbollahstan in southern Lebanon to
look into Israel and say that Iraqi Shi’ite militias will fight alongside
Hezbollah. Since Tuesday morning, tensions boiled over between Hezbollah, Amal
and the protesters in Beirut. Tents were attacked and security forces “unable”
to stop the attackers. In reality, the security forces could but they know their
place. When Hezbollah needs to show its muscle, it will, and the army or others
will back down. After all, no one wants another civil war. Attacks on the
protest tents were caught on video in Beirut. It was an organized mob attempt to
stifle the protest. It is a reminder of the 2008 clashes in Lebanon between the
Future Party and Hezbollah, which also led to Hezbollah entering west Beirut and
showing its ability to project power. This is the Iranian model, one perfected
in suppressing protests in December 2018 and in 2009.
An Iraqi protestor lies injured after clashes with Iranian-backed security
forces earlier this month. Nasrallah had prepared for this moment from October
25. That was the same day that Iraqis went back to the streets to protest, often
attacking pro-Iranian party offices. In Iraq, some 200 people have been killed.
In Lebanon, Nasrallah flexed his muscles a bit on October 25 when some clashes
and images of Hezbollah members parading in vehicles were shown. He accused the
protests of being supported by outside powers, including the US and Gulf
countries. Nasrallah even made sure to include a Lebanese flag in his broadcast
to show that he cares about Lebanon and not just Hezbollah and Iran.
So far, Hezbollah’s tactic was to send goons to attack the protesters who
pretend to be locals. They are reticent at a full confrontation with security
forces in areas like Riad al-Solh square. Now all eyes turn to Hariri and, of
course, what comes next. But Hariri knows what happens if he does anything too
aggressive or confrontational. He’ll end up like his father. He’ll end up like
Samir Kassir, Pierre Gemayel Jr., Kamal Jumblatt and all the rest who have been
assassinated over the years in Lebanon.
*Seth Frantzman, a Middle East Forum writing fellow, is the author of After
ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East (2019), op-ed editor of
The Jerusalem Post, and founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting &
Analysis.
The Nasrallah — Bassil master plan ambush.
Nayla el Khoury/October 31/2019
*This is my personal opinion, based on my political analysis.
A 7 hour meeting between Nasrallah and Bassil to plan the speedy ticket for the
latter to replace General Aoun as President of the Lebanese Republic within
weeks.
Few days after that very long mastermind meeting, the plan starts by mobilizing
the streets (Hezbollah & FPM) towards protests against the current economic
situation and shifts towards the Central Bank and its financial strategies,
attacking the governor Riad Salameh and getting him to resign/ be replaced.
Bassil was then supposed to go to Syria, meet Assad and bring back the “dollar”
that was exported there through business deals and refugees repatriation plan
that would positively shake the economic situation.
Once back, the Bassil visit would cause a political drama inside the government
thus the resignation of many parties starting by the Lebanese Forces ministers.
The ministers would be soon replaced by more FPM ministers thus creating a
unified government that would actually let this coalition work.
Few days after, the President would present his resignation for not being apt
and healthy enough to lead the country and would be replaced by Gebran Bassil
(having covered the majority of the parliament with Hariri who would stay at the
top of the government)
Little did they know that an orchestrated street mobilization would actually
turn into a real revolution.
Thinking well is wise, planning well is wiser, knowing your people is wisest and
best of all — and fortunately for Lebanon they didn’t.
On October 17, 2019 — right after that Whatsapp propaganda was diffused the
protests started in all-well controlled Hezbollah regions.
What was supposed to be a stage-managed manifestation turned within hours into
organic protests…
It all started with Hezbollah — communist covered partisans that hit the streets
towards the central bank and the FPM partisans who headed to Jal el Dib & Zouk.
We still can all hear them on TVs saying: “yes, I participated the first couple
of days but then it changed” — even Nasrallah said it in his speech.
Protestors (actually fed up with the economic situation) started heading towards
Riad Al Solh, Martyr’s square… and soon roads were starting to get blocked all
over the country.
Whether you like it or not, you gotta owe it to Samir Geagea for being the first
opportunist to ambush the plan: the Lebanese forces partisans were instructed to
completely block roads for days on Jal el Dib, Zouk, Ghazir, Okaibeh… and the
rest followed naturally.
The protests soon went out of control because it was filled with real people,
non-politically controlled, demanding their basic rights,…
After years of oppression, freedom of speech repression, disastrous economic
situation and corruption extravaganza; the Lebanese have had it and finally took
control of the streets.
In all of their public appearances, the politicians were all focusing on a
putting a face to the person/party orchestrating all of this — fortunately for
all of us that was impossible.
The turnout of events left the political class in complete panic and baffle.
Their first public appearances were very confident (remember Bassil’s &
Nasrallah’s first speeches) and they actually thought they would still be able
to keep up with their plan.
Bassil’s devilish mind (apologies for the term devilish but you’ll soon know
why) even orchestrated the President’s speech video editing.
Remember, Claudine Aoun — the President daughter owns an advertising agency that
has created the most beautiful ads over the years — would she let her father,
the General Aoun, the President of the Lebanese Republic appear in such a
ridiculous degrading way?
Another tool used by Bassil to build up his case: President Aoun is no longer
competent and can not lead this country.
Few minutes after the President’s speech, both Claudine & Mireille post
ambiguous tweets and Instagram posts… were they trying to tell us something?
Chamel Roukoz resigned from the coalition. Making sense now?
The revolution was a real earthquake that shook them all of. Two Nasrallah
speeches in 10 days, and the third one tomorrow .Bassil’s complete silence.
Complete absence.
Finally, knockout comes from the person that was supposed to cover it all up and
provide the international cover: Saad Hariri who was supposed to stay at the top
of that government under pressure of corruption files brought to his desk by
Bassil & Nasrallah. Same applies to Berri.
Hariri resigns and puts the whole plan in flames…
Bottom line, “من حفر حفرةً لأخيه وقع فيها”. Karma did what it had to, and the
Lebanese people finally woke up and spoke their word.
Knowing our political class, they are already planning the next devilish plan.
I just hope we’ll still be united to face them, all of them… cause only us can
bring them down. Only us. The Free. The Real. The non-Controlled.
Reference:
https://middleeasttransparent.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%84/
Iran’s Theory on Events in Iraq, Lebanon
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2019
It is not difficult to realize to what extent the Iranian regime has become
unpopular in Iraq and Lebanon. This has nothing to do with Al Arabiya TV or the
hashtags of an electronic army, as claimed by Iranian regime officials. In Iraq,
there is neither internet nor social media. Iraq’s government has blacked out
the internet to please the Iranians, who think that waves of incitement are
coming from cyberspace. Yet the uprising is alive and continuing.
Tehran claims that the millions of protesters who have flooded the streets in
Iraqi and Lebanese cities in the past two weeks have been stirred by Saudi
Arabia and Israel. Iran wants to close its ears to the protesters as it has
caused their poverty, militia dominance in their countries and the failure of
their governments. The truth is that the accusations match reality.
All armed militias in Iraq are affiliated with Iran or its allies. Hezbollah in
Lebanon is stronger than the national army and is affiliated with Iran. Most of
the world’s governments have been forced to refrain from dealing with Iraq and
Lebanon because of Iran’s influence there.
Saudi Arabia supported Lebanon’s currency by depositing funds in its central
bank, while Iran caused depreciation due to Hezbollah’s domination of state
institutions. These are well-known facts, and people do not need TV channels or
hashtags to point them to the source of their misery.
In Iraq, the Iranian project relied on the seizure of state institutions:
Parliament, political parties and the armed forces, which were forced to
incorporate Iran’s militias. So the situation worsened and people rose up in
Iraq, not as Sunnis against Shiites, nor as one party against another.
The uprising was not led by the remnants of the Baath Party, it did not raise
the black flag of Daesh, and the Americans show no interest in supporting it.
The Iraqi uprising is purely peaceful and patriotic, despite attempts by Iranian
media to describe it as foreign-driven. Its spectrum is broad and its demands
refute their accusations.
Peaceful protests have taken place in Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Najaf, and other
parts of Iraq. Most of these governorates have a Shiite majority raising demands
that everyone supports. They demand an end to corruption, an improvement in the
government’s performance, and the elimination of armed militias and Iran’s
influence.
They call for the independence of Iraq and its identity. Iran threatens to
demolish everything over the heads of 30 million Iraqis if they stand in the way
of its project to govern and control the country.
In Lebanon, the movement has similar features. The protests are against
corruption, the political mafia and the government’s sectarianism. The massive
protests have not only taken place in Beirut, but also Sunni Tripoli and Shiite
Nabatieh and Baalbek.
Christian protesters have demanded the removal of corrupt Christian ministers,
Sunnis were the first to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
and many Shiite clerics expressed their rejection of Hezbollah.
The poor economic situation has taxed people’s patience and made them break
their silence. We know that, in terms of weapons, the balance of power is not on
the protesters’ side, but their resolve, determination, and massive public
support will bring about change — or at least their message has been received.
Ordinary citizens have turned against Iranian proxies
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 31/2019
One of the core aims of the 1979 Iranian Revolution was to ensure the Islamic
Republic’s influence across the Middle East by exportingits ideals and
principles beyond Iran’s borders. In fact, the theocratic establishment
incorporated this critical mission into its constitution as the preamble, which
states: “The mission of the constitution is to create conditions conducive to
the development of man in accordance with the noble and universal values of
(Shiite) Islam.” It adds that the Iranian constitution “provides the necessary
basis for ensuring the continuation of the revolution at home and abroad.”
To achieve this, the Iranian leaders began building alliances with Shiite
communities in other nations. At first, Tehran projecteditself as an ally that
was coming to the aid of those communities and helping to improve their living
standards and political rights. But the Islamic Republic’s aims were not to
provide social welfare programs to the ordinary people in the long term; rather
it wanted to create and strengthen armed proxies that would serve its parochial
and geopolitical interests.
For example, in Lebanon, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite
Quds Force transformedHezbollah into one of Iran’s most important and powerful
proxies by providing financial, military, intelligence, logistical and advisory
assistance. Even Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has confirmed that his
group receives monetary and arms support from the Iranian government. He saidin
a speech in 2016: “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its
income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets,
come from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
In Iraq, instead of improving the lives of the ordinary people in Shiite
communities, Iran invested in creating a conglomerate of militias known as the
Popular Mobilization Forces. These proxies and armed groups not only serve the
interests of the Iranian regime over those of the Iraqi people, but have also
created conflict by engagingin various crimes against civilians.
Now, after almost four decades, it seems that Shiite communities in several
countries have become disillusioned with the ideals of the Islamic Republic. For
instance, in Lebanon, the latest protests have unexpectedly spread to Hezbollah
strongholds in the south of the country and in Beqaa. The protesters have even
attackedthe offices of Shiite deputies such as Mohammad Raad, president of the
Hezbollah parliamentary group, and Hani Kobeissi and Yassine Jaber of the Amal
party.
Astonishingly, Hezbollah — which has generally projected itself to be on the
side of the Lebanese people, always prepared to come to the ordinary people’s
aid and opposed to the government — has been attempting to quashthe protests. In
fact, Nasrallah has sidedwith the government by declaring that he is opposed to
any Cabinet members resigning. The Hezbollah leader said in a televised speech:
"If this government resigns, we won't have a new one for a year or two."
Hezbollah has significant control over Lebanon’s current Cabinet, which is why
Nasrallah added: “Let this government continue but with a new spirit and new way
of working and let it learn its lessons from the last two days of popular
outburst.”
The important fact about the protests in Lebanon is that the Lebanese people
were not differentiating between the various sectarian political groups when
they shouted: “The government is corrupt, the sectarian leaders are corrupt, all
members of Parliament are thieves — thieves, thieves, thieves.” People even
named almost every senior Lebanese politician, chanting“Thieves, thieves… All of
them, and Nasrallah is one of them.”
It seems that Shiite communities in several countries have become disillusioned
with the ideals of the Islamic Republic.
Similarly, in Iraq, the latest protests have eruptedmainly in Shiite provinces.
The cross-sectarian character of the protests and widespread discontent with the
leaders in Lebanon and Iraq — across the political and religious spectrums —
highlights the Shiite communities’ frustrations and disaffectedness with the
Iranian regime and its proxies.
The structure and nature of proxies generally reflect the system that sponsors
them. If the sponsor, in this case the theocratic establishment of Iran, is
filled with widespread corruption and crimes, its proxies will be too. And, just
like the Iranian regime, Tehran’s proxies have become skilled at exploiting
religion and using sectarianism as a tool to gain power and further their
parochial, religious and political ambitions.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and
president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
Song helps keep a lid on Lebanon’s factional differences
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/October 31/2019
Historians are yet to find a retrospective name for the current decade. Those
with an eye on the Middle East will probably choose a label that references
massive popular movements. After the turn of events in countries such as Syria
and Yemen, even in Egypt and to some extent in Tunisia, where the spark of
protest emerged, hopeful terms that are normally associated with positive
outcomes have slowly faded out of common use. This shift of language began when
the Syrian tragedy ensued and bled across regional and transnational borders.
Yet words such as “spring” and “revolution” are slowly finding their way back
into the Middle Eastern lexicon of popular movements thanks to Lebanon’s
decision to take to the streets.
Those of us old enough to remember the dark years of internal conflict in the
small Levantine state will recall its people’s knack for transforming intense
precarity into entertainment. The ongoing massive street protests are a strong
reminder of that creative spirit. By taking to the streets in their masses, the
Lebanese people are showing resilience alongside fragility: An uneasy
contradiction that, to this observer at least, is aptly expressed in music. It
is little surprise that protesters throughout the country are using song.
Indeed, chants of all kinds have accompanied protest demonstrations for as long
as we can remember. In that sense, Lebanon is no different from other nation
states or, for that matter, from fellow Arab countries whose populations have
flocked to the public square in largely spontaneous waves, instigating
irreversible changes, since 2010.
Within the wide brush stroke of similarity, each Arab (and other Middle Eastern)
country maintains its proper set of regional and local circumstances. Thinking
about other countries’ protest songs deserves more space than this column
allows. So here I will take a look at what makes Lebanon different, at least in
terms of how its demonstrators have used song over the past week or two.
For starters, Lebanon has a recent and, to a great extent, ongoing relationship
with national tensions. Anxieties over social purpose, political allegiance,
national integrity, as well as individual and collective dignity, stack on top
of ethnic, social and religious diversity. These layers of difference are all
too clear in a country that has been keen to preserve a minimal state of
peaceful existence against internal and external odds. Since the civil war
officially ended in the early 1990s, otherwise peripheral skirmishes have
repeatedly evoked ghosts of deadly strife. The balance has been precarious, and
emotions continue to run high.
Music, or song — to be specific to the Lebanese case — has been a crucial means
for maintaining that balance. The power of song remains a unique way in which
Lebanon, in all its tides and factions, keeps a safe lid on flammable rubbings.
In this sphere, the Lebanese singer Fairuz, along with her voice and songs,
represents a cherished constant. In the ongoing wave of protests, the living
legend seems to still unite a fractioned Lebanon. Decades-old songs that gained
special meaning during the long years of war are now sung in unison by
protesters. Fairuz herself, an icon of the country and its designated
“Ambassadress to the Stars,” maintains a meta-national aura, despite her silence
over ongoing events, which no one appears to contest.
As Lebanon is forming a new sense of purpose, it has a readily available store
of musical material for the occasion.
Satisfaction over the silence of prominent artists is hardly the case for other
singers, especially those whose voices have been coined with nationalistic
sentiment. Songs by Julia Boutros, Majida Al-Roumi, Ziad Rahbani and Marcel
Khalife — all of whose careers spanned years of war and survived it with
performances attracting followers of opposing ideologies — continue to stir a
collective sense of unity. Paradoxically, agreement over song happens in
conjunction with popular calls for these artists to show up on the street and to
live up to the ideals they once called for.
Khalife eventually made an appearance in one protest, to mixed reactions.
Boutros’ silence has been condemned by some and justified by others. The singer
of “Revolutionaries of the land, rise against oppression, rise against
depravation,” is the spouse of the defense minister. Hers is an unenviable
position, given that today’s revolutionaries decry her husband as one of the
symbols of oppression and depravation, whose resignation is their main demand.
Rahbani and Al-Roumi continue to be silent, while their songs and memorable
quotes resound across a country that seems to have found a unified voice despite
deep divisions. Today, as Lebanon is forming a new sense of purpose that
stretches across its regionalized territories, it has a readily available store
of musical material for the occasion. Whether the singers whose voices have, for
decades, called for radical action and glorified revolutionary spirits might
decide to declare allegiances this time remains anyone’s guess. But at a point
where more uncertainty seemed hardly possible, a surprisingly unified popular
voice is turning the tables, managing to upend decades of a careful political
balancing act that was brokered by old players. In this new sphere, song seems
to once again be the national constant, helping anxiety and reassurance to
coexist, at least in the hearts of the Lebanese protesters.
*Tala Jarjour is author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac Chant in Aleppo” (OUP,
2018). She is currently Visiting Research Fellow at King’s College London and
Associate Fellow of Pierson College at Yale.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on October 31-November 01/2019
US imposes sanctions on Iran’s
construction sector
Reuters/Friday, 1 November 2019
The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran’s construction sector and on
trade in four materials used in its military or nuclear programs, the US State
Department said on Thursday.
Qassem Soleimani tells PMU, officials to back Iraqi PM
during Baghdad meeting
Reuters/Friday, 1 November 2019
Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps - Quds Force, instructed commanders of the Popular Mobilization Unit
militias to support Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi during a secret
meeting in Baghdad on Wednesday, five sources familiar with the meeting told
Reuters. Sources close to two of the most influential figures in Iraq also told
Reuters that Iran had intervened to prevent the overthrow of Abdul Mahdi amid
demonstrations which erupted weeks ago to protest the government’s performance.
The populist Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr demanded this week that Abdul Mahdi
calls for early elections to calm the largest popular protests. Sadr urged his
main political rival, Hadi al-Amiri, the head of an alliance of Iran-backed Shia
militia leaders, to assist in the overthrow of Abdul Mahdi. An Iranian security
official confirmed Soleimani was present at a meeting in Baghdad on Wednesday
and that he was there to “advise”.The Iranian official, who asked not to be
named, said that the Iraqi security “is important to us and we have helped
before. The Quds Force commander travels to Iraq and other countries in the
region from time to time, especially when our allies ask us for help.”
GCC Defense Ministers Assert Importance of Protecting Int’l
Maritime Navigation
Muscat - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Gulf defense ministers discussed regional developments and conflicts, and their
effects and risks on the interests of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states,
stressing the importance of protecting freedom of international maritime
navigation in the Arabian Gulf. The ministers also discussed the impact of
regional developments on the security and integral unity of the GCC countries
and peoples. Their statement came during the 16th meeting of the joint defense
council of the GCC, hosted by Oman in Muscat. The meeting was chaired by Oman’s
Defense Minister Sayyid Bader bin Saud al-Busaidi.
The ministers condemned the September attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in
Abqaiq and Khurais, asserting their support to Saudi Arabia and any measures
taken to protect its sovereignty, stability, and interests. GCC
Secretary-General Abdullatif al-Zayani, who attended the meeting in Muscat,
praised the operation carried out by US forces on Saturday in Syria’s Idlib
province, which left ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and a number of extremists
dead. The ministers stated that Baghdadi’s death is an important step in
eliminating the terrorist organization's cells. Zayani also lauded the
preparedness of the GCC armed forces to defend their countries and peoples,
vowing to further upgrade their defense plans. He also praised the cooperation
between GCC armed forces and allied countries.
Syria’s Assad says he does not want Turkey as an ‘enemy’
AFP/Friday, 1 November 2019
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Thursday said he did not want to make an
“enemy” of neighboring Turkey, despite the latter’s invasion having led to a
confrontation between their forces. Assad said that Turkish President Recep
Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself was an “enemy” due to policies hostile to Syria and
opposed by most of his country’s political elite. But “we must ensure that we
don’t turn Turkey into an enemy and here comes the role of friends,” such as
Russia and Iran, the president said in a pre-recorded interview on state
television. Turkey supports Syrian rebel forces who have battled Assad’s
government during the eight-year-long war that has killed more than 370,000
people. This month Ankara launched an operation on Syria’s northern border
against Kurdish forces. The Kurds spearheaded a US-backed military campaign
against ISIS that deprived the terror group of their final slither of Syrian
territory in March this year, but Ankara views the Kurdish forces as
“terrorists”. Abandoned by their ally Washington – which early this month pulled
its own troops back from the border area, effectively allowing Turkey to attack
– the Kurds turned to the Syrian regime, which swiftly deployed and reclaimed
swathes of territory it lost years ago. Turkey last week struck a deal with
Russia to halt the weeks-long invasion. The agreement calls for the withdrawal
of Syrian Kurdish fighters from areas along Turkey’s border with Syria, with a
view to setting up a “safe zone” where Ankara plans to repatriate some of the
3.6 million Syrian refugees it currently hosts. Joint Turkish-Russian patrols
are due to start in areas near the Syrian border on Friday, after the Kremlin
said that Syrian Kurdish fighters had withdrawn in accordance with the terms of
the deal between Ankara and Moscow.
U.S. House Formalizes Trump Impeachment Process in Landmark
Vote
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 31/2019
Congress formally opened a new, public phase of its corruption investigation
into Donald Trump on Thursday as US lawmakers voted for the first time to
advance the impeachment process targeting the US president. "Today the House
takes the next step forward as we establish the procedures for open hearings...
so that the public can see the facts for themselves," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
said. "What is at stake in all of this is nothing less than our democracy." The
top Democrat and Trump's chief nemesis in Congress addressed fellow lawmakers
shortly before her chamber took a Halloween morning vote along party lines --
232 to 196 -- to pass a resolution that lays out rules for the next stages of
the impeachment process. Trump has repeatedly branded the process as
illegitimate and politically motivated and, true to form, his reaction was
swift. "The Greatest Witch Hunt In American History!" he boomed on Twitter. He
called on Republicans to rally behind him even as he faced the embarrassing
likelihood of becoming the third president in history to be impeached and placed
on trial for removal in the Senate, over an alleged extortion scheme to obtain
Ukraine's help to get him reelected in 2020.
The embattled president retweeted a rallying cry from Fox News host Laura
Ingraham that called on Republicans to "stand together and defend the leader of
their party against these smears.""This farce should never be allowed to roll
into a winter show trial," read the tweet -- suggesting Trump would want the
Republican leadership in the Senate to shut the process down.
Holding Trump 'accountable'
Trump is accused of withholding military aid to compel Ukraine to mount an
embarrassing corruption probe against his Democratic election rival Joe Biden --
effectively using US foreign policy in an illegal shakedown for his personal
political benefit. Trump and loyal Republicans dismiss the case as a "sham," but
congressional investigators have heard a steady flow of corroborating evidence
from government officials testifying behind closed doors on Capitol Hill. The
landmark resolution did not have unanimous Democratic approval. Two Democrats
joined all Republicans in opposing the measure, although former Republican
Justin Amash, now an independent, supported it. The inquiry now moves into the
public eye -- giving Americans the chance to hear on live television the
evidence against Trump. The House Intelligence Committee, which has led the
inquiry so far, will host open hearings, presenting witnesses and documentary
evidence and allowing Republicans to challenge the case against Trump. The
minority can also suggest subpoenas but majority Democrats have final say, a
rule that has angered Republicans.
"Trying to put a ribbon on a sham process doesn't make it any less of a sham,"
House Republican Jim Jordan fumed. Democrats argue that the vote neutralizes a
key Republican talking point that the inquiry has no validity because the full
House did not sign on. Neither the House rules nor the US Constitution require
such a vote to start an impeachment inquiry.
If the case against Trump is deemed strong enough, the House Judiciary Committee
will draw up formal charges against the president -- articles of impeachment --
to be voted on by the full House. That process could be completed by year end.
The Democrat-controlled House is expected to approve impeachment, which would
then see Trump go on trial for removal in the Senate, where Republicans have a
majority. Democrats dismissed the charges that the process is partisan. "There
is serious evidence that President Trump may have violated the Constitution,"
said Jim McGovern, Chairman of the House Rules Committee which drew up the
resolution. "If we don't hold this president accountable, we could be ceding our
ability to hold any president accountable."
- Witnesses back allegations -
Nearly a dozen witnesses so far have confirmed in House depositions the
accusations that, in a concerted effort with top aides and his personal lawyer,
Trump pressured Ukraine to help his reelection effort in 2020 by producing dirt
on Biden, the former vice president.
The allegations focus on a July 25 phone call in which Trump pressed Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky to open investigations into Biden and Biden's son,
who worked with a Ukraine energy firm. Tim Morrison, the White House National
Security Council's top Russia expert, arrived on Capitol Hill Thursday to be
deposed. According to other witnesses, Morrison, who resigned late Wednesday,
has personal knowledge of the White House effort to freeze military aid to
Ukraine to pressure Zelensky to launch the political investigations.
Investigators also have called on Trump's former national security adviser John
Bolton to testify, along with two White House national security lawyers. Bolton,
other witnesses have said, disagreed strongly with Trump's tactics toward
Ukraine and the involvement of his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani in Ukraine
policy.
Turkish court rules to free ex-opposition lawmaker from
jail
Associated Press, Istanbul/Thursday, 31 October 2019
Turkey’s official news agency says a former opposition lawmaker and newspaper
editor convicted of aiding a terror group will be freed from prison. Anadolu
news agency said Thursday an appeals court ruled for the release of Republican
People’s Party ex-legislator Eren Erdem. Erdem was sentenced to more than four
years in prison in March, accused of supporting US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah
Gulen. The Turkish government says Gulen orchestrated a failed July 2016 coup,
which he denies. Erdem was accused of aiding Gulen’s movement while editor of
Karsi newspaper, which published recordings in 2013 that suggested government
corruption - allegations the government rejects. Erdem denies the
accusations.Erdem was imprisoned in June 2018. Hundreds of thousands were
investigated for alleged links to Gulen following the coup and about 30,000
remain jailed.
ISIS names Baghdadi successor, threatens US
AFP/Thursday, 31 October 2019
ISIS confirmed the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and named his
replacement as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, the extremist terror group
said a statement released Thursday. “We mourn you... commander of the faithful,”
an audio statement read by Abu Hamza al-Quraishi, presented as the group’s
spokesman, said. Baghdadi, who led ISIS since 2014 and was the world’s most
wanted man, was killed in a US special forces raid in Syria’s northwestern
province of Idlib on Sunday. The group also confirmed the killing in another
raid the following day of the group’s previous spokesman Abu Hassan al-Muhajir.
The statement said the jihadist group’s legislative and consultative body
convened after the 48-year-old Iraqi-born extremist chief’s death. “The Islamic
State shura council convened immediately after confirming the martyrdom of
Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the elders of the holy warriors agreed” on a
replacement, said the seven-minute message. The ISIS spokesman also issued a
stark warning to the United States, whose President Donald Trump announced
Baghdadi’s death in a televised address from the White House. “He died after
running into a dead-end tunnel, whimpering and crying and screaming all the
way,” Trump said on Sunday, adding that Baghdad “died like a dog.”In the new
audio message, the ISIS spokesman described Trump as “a crazy old man” and
warned the US its supporters would avenge Baghdadi’s death. “Do not rejoice
America,” he warned, “the new chosen one will make you forget the horror you
have beholden... and make the achievements of the Baghdadi days taste sweet.”
Israel Rearrests Palestinian MP Khalida Jarrar
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Israeli forces on Thursday rearrested Palestinian lawmaker Khalida Jarrar, who
was freed in February after being held without trial for 20 months over links to
an outlawed group, her daughter said. "My mother … was arrested from our house
in Ramallah" at about 3:00 am, Jarrar's daughter Yafa posted on Facebook.Jarrar,
56, was previously arrested on July 2, 2017, for being a senior member of the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). The Ramallah-based
Palestinian Prisoners Club told AFP that Palestinian writer Ali Jaradat, a known
PFLP member, was also arrested overnight, as well as 10 other people whose
identities the club did not disclose. Senior Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi
condemned the arrests. "We strongly condemn the overnight raids of Ramallah,
Bethlehem and other Palestinian cities by Israeli occupation forces and their
targeted detention of several activists, including elected representative and
political leader Khalida Jarrar," she said. "This is the third time Israeli
occupation forces detain representative Khalida Jarrar, who is also a prominent
human rights defender." Shortly after last year's arrest, she was given a
six-month administrative detention order, which was then extended several times.
Israeli administrative detention orders allow suspects to be held without charge
for renewable six-month periods. Israel says administrative detention is
intended to allow authorities to hold suspects while continuing to gather
evidence, with the aim of preventing crimes in the meantime. But the system has
been criticized by Palestinians, human rights groups and members of the
international community, who say Israel abuses it. The Israeli army said that
after one such extension of Jarrar's custody, "security personnel found she
still poses a substantial threat". She had also been jailed in the past. In
December 2015, an Israeli military court convicted Jarrar on charges including
encouraging attacks against Israel and violating a travel ban. It sentenced her
to 15 months in prison, but she was freed a month early due to overcrowding in
Israeli jails.
Kuwait’s Emir Holds Talks With Jordan’s King
Kuwait - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed and King Abdullah II of Jordan held talks
on Wednesday on bilateral relations and the latest regional developments. The
two sides stressed the importance of maintaining cooperation and coordination on
issues of mutual concern in the best interest of the two peoples and in service
of Arab and Islamic causes, stated Minister of Amiri Diwan Affairs Sheikh Ali
Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah. The talks were attended by Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf
Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad
Al-Sabah, and senior state officials from both countries. The Jordanian king
arrived in Kuwait on Wednesday and was received by the emir of Kuwait. King
Abdullah II is accompanied by a delegation of Jordan's foreign minister Ayman
Safadi and a number of seniors. Further, envoy of Sheikh Sabah, Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad
Al-Sabah delivered Wednesday a message from Kuwait’s Emir to Qatari Emir Sheikh
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The message handles fraternal relations and ways of
promoting and developing them in all fields, issues of mutual interest and the
latest regional and international developments.
Saudi King, Brazil’s President Witness Exchange of 4
Cooperation Deals
Riyadh - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and Brazilian
President Jair Bolsonaro have witnessed the exchange of four cooperation
agreements between Saudi Arabia and Brazil. The deals covered defense
cooperation, procedures for granting citizens of the two countries visit visas,
cultural cooperation, and quality, safety, and efficiency of health products and
cosmetics. The documents were exchanged on Wednesday by relevant ministers and
high-ranking officials. Earlier, the Saudi King and Bolsonaro held official
talks at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh. They reviewed bilateral relations between
the two countries and ways of developing and strengthening them. They also
exchanged views on all regional and international issues of common interest. A
joint statement said that the leaderships of the two countries considered the
Brazilian President's visit to the Kingdom as an important step in consolidating
bilateral relations between the two countries, citing the agreements signed and
the topics discussed during the visit in addition to the large delegation that
accompanied Bolsonaro. Saudi Arabia and Brazil stressed enhancing defense
cooperation between the two countries and agreed to continue cooperation in the
fields of training. The statement said that the two states identified several
joint important fields for cooperation and investment, such as agriculture,
industry, energy, mining, infrastructure, transport, science, technology and
innovation. They agreed to intensify cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear
energy, culture, the use of outer space and sports, which would greatly
contribute to boosting economic partnership between the two countries. The two
sides also discussed issues of common interest with regard to international
peace and security and the need to strengthen the international partnership to
combat terrorism and confront extremism.
UAE Announces Return of its Forces from Aden after its
Liberation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 31 October, 2019
The United Arab Emirates announced on Wednesday the return of its troops from
Yemen’s interim capital Aden after its successful liberation and stabilization.
Aden has been transferred under the command of Saudi forces, announced the
Saudi-led Arab coalition on Sunday.
The UAE troops were received by Mohammed bin Ahmed Al Bowardi, Minister of State
for Defense Affairs, and Lt. General Hamad Mohammed Thani Al Rumaithi, Chief of
Staff of the UAE Armed Forces, reported the UAE news agency (WAM). The General
Command said in a statement that the UAE forces had completed the process of
hand over responsibly as per a military strategy with a view to guarantee the
consolidation of the military gains. The statement explained that the forces
returning from Aden had liberated the city from both the Iran-backed Houthi
militias and terrorist actors on July 17, 2015. "Thereafter, the Saudi-led Arab
Coalition forces spread out from Aden and liberated many other areas of Yemen
from the Houthi rebels, foiling Iranian attempts to infiltrate Yemen and
dominate its affairs," it added. The General Command recalled that the UAE and
Saudi forces had worked on securing and stabilizing Aden after its liberation,
uprooting the terrorists and neutralizing all security threats. "As a result,
security and stability were restored across the Governorate. The forces also
armed and trained the Yemeni forces in a way that would enable them to discharge
their military responsibilities independently. The Yemeni forces thus trained
are highly competent, professional and capable of maintaining security and
stability," the UAE military pointed out. The statement added that the UAE
forces would resume, jointly with their allies, their fight against terrorist
forces in South Yemen and other regions.
The General Command commended the heroic role the UAE forces played since the
liberation of Aden in 2015 as they fought many battles against the Houthis and
the terrorist outfits. The Command also recalled the sacrifices made by the
martyrs who laid down their lives fighting for their country, defending the
truth and their brothers. The statement concluded by emphasizing the commitment
of the UAE Armed Forces as part of the Arab coalition to extend all possible
support to protect the interests of the people of Yemen.
Israel approves more than 2,300 settler homes: NGO
AFP, Jerusalem/Thursday, 31 October 2019
Israel has approved the construction of 2,342 settler homes in the occupied West
Bank, settlement watchdog Peace Now said on Thursday.
It said the decision was taken on October 10 and that 59 percent of the new
homes will be erected in “settlements that Israel likely may evacuate under a
peace agreement” with the Palestinians. According to Peace Now, which closely
monitors Israeli settlement building, plans for 8,337 housing units in the
settlements have been approved since the beginning of the year. It said this
represented an increase of close to 50 percent compared with 2018 when plans for
5,618 housing units were approved. All settlements are considered illegal under
international law and are built on land that the Palestinians see as part of
their future state, but Israel distinguishes between those it has approved and
those it has not. Peace Now said that settlement construction has increased
under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is fighting for his
political survival after failing to form a coalition government following
September elections. Included in the 2,342 new housing units are 182 that are
due to be built in Mevoot Yericho, a former outpost near Jericho which the
Netanyahu government legalized before the September polls, Peace Now said.
Ramping up the construction of settlement homes “is yet another dangerous step
for both Israel and the Palestinians, led by a transitional prime minister whom
the public did not trust in his policies. “The next government must put a freeze
on the development of settlements and to strive for immediate resumption of
negotiations with the Palestinians without preconditions and to end the bloody
conflict based on the principle of two states for two peoples,” Peace Now added.
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin has tasked ex-military chief Benny Gantz to form
a government after Netanyahu failed to set up a coalition for the second time
this year. Some 600,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and
Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem among around 2.9 million Palestinians.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on October 31-November 01/2019
US retreat from Syria likely prevented war
with Iran/Trump has learne the lessons of history and does not want to repeat
it.
Mark Langfan, INN//October 31/2019
It’s a simple military axiom: At all costs, avoid a two-front war.
In their hysteria, the anti-Trump “defend the Kurds from a NATO ‘Ally’” crowd
seems to have forgotten that in the Middle East, apart from the Turks and Kurds,
there is a real possibility of war brewing between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the
Gulf States. America has tens of thousands of its soldiers in the Gulf area and
in the Iranian line of fire. Given the volatile Iranian Front, President Trump
made the necessary military decision, and avoided facing a Turkish Northern
Front, all the while reinforcing forces against the likelihood of an Iranian
attack in the Persian Gulf. President Trump’s executive command decision likely
has saved thousands of American soldiers’ lives.
With all the Trump-bashing on “The View” talk show and in the halls of Congress,
one would have thought the Kurds were an actual NATO ally. Let’s recall some of
the facts that President Trump was aware of when he made his North Syria retreat
decision:
1. America has been waging an extreme pressure campaign, and has brought Iran to
financial ruin.
2.Iran is most likely the source of the missiles fired at multiple shipping
targets in the Persian Gulf culminating in the September 14, 2019 massive attack
on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities.
3. During September 2019, there were massive anti-Iran riots in Bagdad and
throughout Iraq. Hundreds of Iraqi citizens have been shot dead by either Iraqi
government forces or Iranian Quds forces, while Iran accuses Saudi Arabia and
Israel of instigating the riots.
4. On October 7, 2019, President Trump announced a Northern Syrian retreat in
the face of a Turkish attack.
5. Early Friday October 11, 2019 Middle Eastern time, an Iranian oil tanker was
attacked with above-the-waterline missiles near the western Saudi Arabian coast
in the Red Sea.
6. Immediately thereafter, mid-day Friday October11, 2019 Washington DC time,
Secretary of Defense Esper announced an additional deployment of 1,800 US
servicemen to Saudi Arabia on top of thousands of baseline forces plus the
additional 14,000 US servicemen deployed to the Middle East since May 2019.
While announcing the additional forces, SecDef Esper stated: “We thought it was
important to send forces to deter and defend, and to send a message to the
Iranians: Do not strike another sovereign state. Do not threaten American
interests and American forces, or we will respond. Do not mistake our restraint
for weakness.” This is all happening while the Iranians are continuing war-like
threats over the attack on their oil tanker in the Red Sea.
These are some of the open-source, undeniable facts. We don’t know what else
President Trump is aware of from secret sources. Do any of “The View” panelists
know any of the facts? They do not That, however, doesn’t stop The View, or
members of Congress including Republican Majority Leader of the Senate, from
going completely off-the-handle against Trump on the Syria retreat issue.
Add the incendiary possibility that Turkey’s would-be Caliph Erdogan may be
holding the 50 B-61 nuclear bombs at the Turkish NATO Incirlik Air base hostage,
and may forcibly prevent President Trump from removing the bpmbs, equivalent to
600 Hiroshimas, from Turkish soil.
Throw in the fact that the Democrats are trying to impeach Trump and weakening
him in the eyes of foreign leaders. If anyone has Kurdish blood on their hands,
it’s the Democrats,who are crippling President Trump intentionally and want to
succeed no matter what happens to this country. People should remember that in
the height of the Nixon Watergate Impeachment tumult during late 1973/early 1974
culminating in Nixon’s resignation in August 1974, the North Vietnamese reneged
on the Nixon Paris Peace Accords, and Saigon fell soon thereafter, in April
1975. G-d only knows what will happen because of the Democrats’ paralyzing of an
American President while the world is in flames.
A small Turkish-American clash in Northern Syria would have been the perfect
timing and cover for an Iranian attack against American forces in the Persian
Gulf. One attacks one’s enemy when they are distracted. A minor war with our
so-called NATO Ally Turkey in Northern Syria causing several US casualties would
have been exactly that. Imagine the Democrat furor that would have erupted if
American soldiers had killed a Turkish soldier, seen by them as a member of a
NATO ally’s army. Heaven only knows what the hate-Trumpers would have said if
the Turks had killed an American soldier in Northern Syria. As it was, the Turks
fired very close to our troops.
The prescient timing of Trump’s announcement of retreat from North Syria and
possibly the force redeployment,alone may have derailed a planned Iranian
attack. With the attacked Iran oil tanker, there is still an extremely high
possibility of some type of military engagement with Iran.
If you were the American President, and all intelligence reports led you to
believe an attack from Iran against US forces in the Persian Gulf is a strong
short-term possibility, wouldn’t you avoid a preventable fight with American
casualties against Turkey in North Syria to focus on a likely attack from Iran
in the Persian Gulf? Iran could capture 5,000 American soldiers as hostages
Anyone who says that they would would risk a two-front conflict with Turkey and
Iran at the same time is certifiable.
If the American public were polled on the reality question instead of the
tear-jerker Kurdish question, I believe 90% of Americans would answer that it is
better to cave to Turkey in the north in order to defend the eastern front
against Iran. President Trump’s tough North Syria retreat decision may very well
have saved American forces from being attacked, killed and taken hostage by the
Iranians. President Trump should be lauded for his military instinct instead of
being denounced by his hysterical opponents..
The Future of Oil
Noah Smith/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 31/2019
The oil industry faces an uncertain future. The world is rapidly waking up to
the severity and immediacy of the threat from climate change. At the same time,
electric vehicles are getting cheap enough to compete with internal-combustion
engines. This doesn’t mean the petroleum industry will die. Plastics, most of
which are derived from oil, will continue to be important for a huge variety of
consumer and industrial applications. And aircraft and ships will take longer to
shift from oil-based fuels. But it does mean that consumption will shrink. Where
a decade ago people talked fearfully of oil supplies running out, now some are
predicting that demand for the black stuff will peak in just a few years.
But the pain felt by these titans, and by smaller producers, will only be the
beginning. Those companies lie at the center of a vast network of suppliers and
oil-services companies, which all will feel the sting of reduced demand. And
regions that depend heavily on oil-related industries will see their economies
suffer. Biggest and richest among these regions is Texas, which still produces
more than a third of the country’s oil and has benefitted tremendously from the
fracking boom. Houston has become a superstar city, attracting talented people
from all over the globe to work on the advanced technologies that sustain the
petroleum industry. Although the state has diversified its economy quite a lot
since the 1980s, by some estimates 1 out of 8 jobs in Texas are supported by
oil. A big structural contraction in the oil industry won’t destroy the Texas
economy, but it would be a stiff headwind for decades. Jobs are already being
lost as the industry retrenches, thanks to low prices.
Meanwhile, the nearby states of Oklahoma and Louisiana are just as exposed, as
are many lightly populated states such as North Dakota and Wyoming.
Workers in the energy industry need to be prepared for this shift. For knowledge
workers, such as geologists, chemists, and software engineers, this means
cultivating technical skills that can be useful in other fields such as
information technology, pharmaceuticals, health care or finance. For managers,
it means establishing a network of professional contacts outside the oil and gas
industry. Transitioning out of the industry might mean relocating, but chances
are that a city such as Houston will be able to leverage existing concentrations
of human capital to lure in new industries. In two decades, Houston might be
known as a biotechnology hub.
Lower-skilled workers and fracking boom towns, however, will have a much harder
time landing on their feet. In contrast to the coal industry, which has shrunk
over the years to only about 50,000 miners, the oil and gas industry employs
more than 700,000 blue-collar workers. Just like manufacturing workers who lost
their jobs to Chinese competition in the 2000s or construction workers laid off
in the Great Recession, these workers are going to have difficulty finding new
jobs for similar pay.
The problem will be compounded for those who live in the small towns and cities
that grew up around oil-extraction sites. Americans have been less willing to
move from place to place in search of work in recent decades, and big cities are
no longer lands of opportunity for those without an advanced education. The
decline of the oil industry may leave the country dotted with yet more decaying
half-empty ghost towns, unable to pay for the upkeep on their infrastructure,
afflicted with drugs and alcoholism and suicide.
What Are Palestinian Leaders Afraid Of?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 31/2019
Hamas justified the arrest of Qatoush by accusing him of "leaking security
details." It is not clear how a complaint about economic hardship has turned
into a security-related case. In the eyes of Hamas, however, it seems that any
Palestinian who dares to complain about the bad economy in the Gaza Strip is a
"traitor" and a "security threat."
From all accounts, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas are neck-and-neck in
their competition to crush freedom of expression and crack down on the media.
"It is certain that the Arab Spring will arrive, sooner or later, to
Palestine... The [ruling] Palestinian elite is mostly corrupt and tyrannical.
With the exception of a few, the [Palestinian] elite is corrupt and incompetent
-- or both." — Hani al-Masri, a prominent Palestinian political analyst,
samanews.ps, October 22, 2019.
Criticism is fine, of course -- if it is directed at the Palestinians'
arch-enemy, Israel. Otherwise, Palestinian journalists had best keep their
criticism to themselves -- lest the PA and Hamas decide to leave them in
critical condition.
Facing growing discontent from their people, the leaders of the Palestinian
Authority and Hamas have resumed their crackdown on Palestinian journalists in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In the past few weeks, several journalists were
arrested by PA and Hamas security forces. (Images source: iStock)
Facing growing discontent from their people, the leaders of the Palestinian
Authority (PA) and Hamas have resumed their crackdown on Palestinian journalists
in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In the past few weeks, several journalists were
arrested by PA and Hamas security forces.
The arrests are seen by Palestinian journalists as part of the PA and Hamas
programs to silence their critics and deter reporters from disclosing anything
that reflects badly on Palestinian leaders. Any form of criticism, particularly
from Palestinian journalists, has long been anathema to the PA and Hamas.
The latest crackdown on Palestinian journalists is said to spring from the PA's
and Hamas's fear that the current wave of anti-corruption protests sweeping
Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt and other Arab countries may spread to the West Bank and
Gaza Strip.
In the Gaza Strip, Hamas security forces arrested dozens of Palestinians after
local activists called for holding demonstrations to protest the ongoing
economic crisis there. Among those taken into custody are journalists Hani al-Agha
and Bassam Moheisen, who were arrested for posting critical comments against
Hamas on social media.
Moheisen was apparently arrested because of his affiliation with Hamas's rivals
in the Fatah faction headed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas. For the past 19
years, Moheisen has been working as a producer for the West Bank-based Voice of
Palestine radio station. His family says he was arrested after he posted
comments on Facebook in which he criticized Hamas. A family member, who asked
not to be identified, said that Moheisen has been tortured in the Hamas prison.
Hamas claims that the second journalist, al-Agha, was arrested for "passing
information that is harmful to public security to security agencies." Hamas did
not provide further details, but the claim is believed to be based on
connections the journalist may have had with Abbas's PA in the West Bank.
Palestinian sources in the Gaza Strip said that a number of social media
activists were also arrested for allegedly calling on Palestinians to take to
the streets to protest against Hamas and its failure to improve the living
conditions of its people. Some of the activists were identified as Ramzi al-Bar'i,
Ahmed al-Zaeem, Amin Abed, Haitham Mas'oud, Mohammed Abu Ghosh, Hasan al-Daoudi,
Abdullah al-Hawihi, and Khaled al-Ghazali. Hamas, the sources added, has also
summoned dozens of other activists and journalists for interrogation.
Earlier this week, Hamas security forces also arrested one of their own
officers, Hussein Qatoush, after he posted a video on Facebook in which he
complained about the dire economic situation in the Gaza Strip. In the video,
Qatoush said he does not have money to pay for transportation from his home to
work. "The most difficult type of pain is when you are serving in a country
where you can't afford to pay for transportation to get to work. This is how it
is in the Gaza Strip," the Hamas security officer said.
Hamas justified the arrest of Qatoush by accusing him of "leaking security
details." It is not clear how a complaint about economic hardship has turned
into a security-related case. In the eyes of Hamas, however, it seems that any
Palestinian who dares to complain about the bad economy in the Gaza Strip is a
"traitor" and a "security threat."
Hamas's latest measures are evidently aimed at preventing a repeat of the
widespread demonstrations that erupted in the Gaza Strip last March. Organized
by social media activists, the demonstrators protested the high cost of living
and new taxes imposed by Hamas, and called for solving the economic crisis in
the Gaza Strip, including the high rate of unemployment. The protests, which
lasted for a few days, were quickly and brutally crushed by Hamas.
In this regard, the Palestinian Authority has consistently proven in the past
few years that when it comes to assaults on public freedoms -- particularly
freedom of expression and the media -- it rivals Hamas. The PA also seems to
have good reason to fear that the anti-corruption protests in some Arab states
may reach the West Bank.
In the past few days, the PA security forces arrested two journalists, Mahmoud
Abu al-Hassan and Radwan Qatanani, who, according to Palestinian sources, are
being held for "security reasons." The nature of the charges against the
journalists, also according to the sources, remains unknown.
Since the beginning of this year, the PA security forces have arrested or
summoned for interrogation a number of Palestinian journalists in the West Bank
despite a promise by PA Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh to stop all violations
against freedom of expression and the media.
Last week, the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate (PJS), a body dominated by
Fatah loyalists, called for the release of the journalists held by the PA and
Hamas. The PJS also urged international human rights and press organizations to
pressure Hamas to halt its repressive measures against journalists and political
activists in the Gaza Strip.
Like Hamas, the PA appears to be afraid of a popular uprising against corruption
and tyranny in the West Bank -- and is probably the reason that the PA is now
seeking to silence its critics and intimidate Palestinian journalists.
Hani al-Masri, a prominent Palestinian political analyst, believes that the
current anti-corruption protests sweeping some Arab countries will reach the
Palestinian territories. "It is certain that the Arab Spring will arrive, sooner
or later, to Palestine," he said.
"The [ruling] Palestinian elite is mostly corrupt and tyrannical. With the
exception of a few, the [Palestinian] elite is corrupt and incompetent – or
both. Those who believe that Palestine, its leadership and its president are
immune from the Arab Spring because they are under occupation are mistaken."
From all accounts, the PA and Hamas are neck-and-neck in their competition to
crush freedom of expression and crack down on the media. Palestinian journalists
who expose the villainy of Palestinian leaders are deemed criminals, complete
with criminal consequences. Criticism is fine, of course – if it is directed at
the Palestinians' arch-enemy, Israel. Otherwise, Palestinian journalists had
best keep their criticism to themselves -- lest the PA and Hamas decide to leave
them in critical condition.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a
Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Israel Blocks Terrorists, Palestinians Block Critics
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 31/2019
On the one hand, leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) condemn Facebook for
"surrendering to Israeli pressure" and taking action against those who incite
terrorism and hate speech. On the other hand, the same PA leaders keep
pressuring Facebook to silence Palestinians who demand an end to financial and
administrative corruption in the PA.
"[E]very time Fatah posts a new terror message on Facebook encouraging violence
or presenting murderers as role models, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians
are given more motivation to kill Israelis. Facebook still chooses to do nothing
to stop it." — Itamar Marcus, Jerusalem Post, September 11, 2019.
What Abbas and his senior officials apparently fear is that the current wave of
anti-corruption protests sweeping Lebanon and other Arab countries may reach the
West Bank. They appear nervous that their critics and political rivals will use
social media to encourage Palestinians to revolt against corruption and tyranny.
For these leaders, when they turn to Facebook to clamp down on criticism and
voices calling for reform and democracy, that is good government. However, when
Israel tries to silence those who seek to spill more Jewish blood -- well, that
is criminal.
Leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are seeking to block dozens of
websites and social media pages, to prevent them from criticizing and exposing
corruption cases related to PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his senior officials
in the West Bank. Pictured: Abbas on September 20, 2017.
For the past few months, Palestinians have been accusing Facebook of "waging war
on Palestinian content" by suspending dozens of accounts belonging to
Palestinian activists and groups suspected of anti-Israel incitement and
promotion of terrorism. The Palestinians even went as far as accusing the social
media giant of being in collusion with Israel to "suppress the Palestinian
narrative and conceal the reality of Israeli crimes."
In the context of the campaign, the Palestinians used the hashtag #FBblocksPalestine
to "reveal the double-standard policy of Facebook management in dealing with
Israeli and Palestinian incitement on its site," according to the Palestinian
NGO Sada Social Center.
Earlier this month, Facebook further angered Palestinians when it deleted the
page of the Hamas-affiliated Palestinian Information Center. Several Palestinian
journalists, political activists and Hamas officials accused Facebook of serving
as a "tool of suppression" in the hands of Israel.
The London-based group, ImpACT International for Human Rights Policies, claimed
that Israel was exploiting its relations with Facebook to "combat Palestinian
content." The group also claimed that the war on Palestinian content was
attributed to "economic interests" between Israel and Facebook.
The past week, however, has shown that if anyone is waging war on Palestinian
content, it is the Palestinians themselves.
While Facebook has been deleting pages of individuals and groups promoting
terrorism, violence and hate speech, particularly against Israel, the leaders of
the Palestinian Authority (PA) are now seeking to block dozens of websites and
social media pages for a different reason: to prevent them from criticizing and
exposing corruption cases related to PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his senior
officials in the West Bank.
On October 17, the PA Magistrate's Court in Ramallah, the de facto capital of
the Palestinians, issued an order to block 59 websites and social media pages
for allegedly "disrupting public order and provoking public opinion." The
controversial order, which has sparked widespread criticism, was issued at the
request of PA Attorney General Akram al-Khatib.
Palestinian journalists and human rights groups have strongly condemned the
decision to block access to the websites and social media pages, calling it a
"massacre against freedom of speech and the Palestinian press" and a "black day
in the history of Palestinian journalism." The Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner
Solidarity Network said that the ban "reveals the Palestinian Authority's fear
of a popular explosion against it similar to the Arab uprisings, the latest of
which is taking place in Lebanon."
The Palestinian human rights group Al-Haq noted that this was not the first time
that the PA had blocked access to websites. Two years ago, the group said,
"Palestinian internet providers began blocking approximately 16 websites that
often post news or opinions critical of the Palestinian Authority."
Al-Haq warned that blocking websites on the internet "may impinge on the right
to freedom of expression, including freedom to seek, receive and impart
information and ideas of all kinds. The blocking of these websites violates the
provisions of the Palestinian Basic Law, the 1995 Law on Printed Materials and
Publication, and the 2009 Law by Decree on the Palestinian Telecommunications
Regulatory Authority."
The PA, whose representatives have also been lashing out at Facebook for
deleting pages promoting anti-Israel incitement and terrorism, is now saying it
will approach the social media giant to demand that it remove the websites
blocked by the Palestinian court.
The PA demand is a striking example of the double standard the Palestinians have
long used in their dealings with Israel and the international community.
On the one hand, the PA leaders condemn Facebook for "surrendering to Israeli
pressure" and taking action against those who incite terrorism and hate speech.
On the other hand, the same PA leaders keep pressuring Facebook to silence
Palestinians who demand an end to financial and administrative corruption in the
PA.
As Palestinians across the political spectrum were protesting the decision to
block access to websites and social media pages, the head of the Palestinian
anti-cybercrime unit, Nisreen Zainah, announced that the Attorney General's
office will ask Facebook management to remove the pages blocked by the PA court
in Ramallah.
"We support freedom of expression as a sacred right, but we must be aware that
this should be within clear criteria and without prejudice to the freedoms of
others," Zainah said. Noting that the PA does not have the technical means to
block Facebook pages, she explained that her office would do so "through
communication and coordination with the management of Facebook itself."
Israel wants Facebook to remove pages and posts that promote violence and
glorify murderers of Israelis. Itamar Marcus, CEO of the Jerusalem-based
watchdog Palestinian Media Watch, recently met with the director of Facebook's
global counterterrorism policy team, Brian Fishman, and presented him with a
report documenting dozens of incidents in which Abbas's ruling Fatah faction
used its page to promote violence and glorify terrorists.
"During our conversation, I emphasized that every time Fatah posts a new terror
message on Facebook encouraging violence or presenting murderers as role models,
hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are given more motivation to kill
Israelis," Marcus said. "Facebook still chooses to do nothing to stop it."
Abbas and the PA leadership, on the other hand, are evidently not worried about
anti-Israel incitement on the internet when it promotes terrorism against
Israel. In fact, their social media accounts are directly involved in the
glorification of Palestinians who murder Israelis and promote terrorism.
Palestinian leaders do seem to worry, though, that their corruption, tyranny and
assaults on public freedoms and human rights violations are being exposed
through Facebook and other social media platforms.
Now they want Facebook, "Israel's tool," to shut down not the terrorists, but
anyone who dares to call them out for their policies and corrupt practices. As
far as Palestinian leaders are concerned, reporting about corruption among the
top brass of the PA is more dangerous than promoting terrorism or glorifying
those with Jewish blood on their hands.
What Abbas and his senior officials apparently fear is that the current wave of
anti-corruption protests sweeping Lebanon and other Arab countries may reach the
West Bank. They seem nervous that their critics and political rivals will use
social media to encourage Palestinians to revolt against corruption and tyranny.
For these leaders, when they turn to Facebook to clamp down on criticism and
voices calling for reform and democracy, that is good government. However, when
Israel tries to silence those who seek to spill more Jewish blood -- well, that
is criminal.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The “Most Colossal Crime of All Ages”
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/October 31/2019
An ugly truth of history has just been acknowledged. On October 29, the US House
of Representatives voted overwhelmingly (405 to 11) in favor of Resolution 296,
which officially acknowledges the Armenian genocide perpetrated by Ottoman Turks
during WW1. (Unsurprisingly, Ilhan Omar was among the very few to abstain; her
disingenuous logic will be addressed later.)
In order to become official policy, however, the resolution needs to be approved
by both houses of Congress, and then signed by the president. The Senate is
currently not scheduled to vote on the measure.
It is at any rate a step in the right direction. According to the book
Remembrance and Denial: The Case of the Armenian Genocide,
At the beginning of 1915 there were some two million Armenians within Turkey;
today there are fewer than 60,000…. Despite the vast amount of evidence that
points to the historical reality of the Armenian Genocide, eyewitness accounts,
official archives, photographic evidence, the reports of diplomats, and the
testimony of survivors, denial of the Armenian Genocide by successive regimes in
Turkey has gone on from 1915 to the present.
Indeed, Turkey is currently outraged at this resolution; its president, Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, called it “worthless” and the “biggest insult” to the Turkish
people.
Such willful denial borders the surreal considering how well documented the
Armenian genocide is. As the International Association of Genocide Scholars
says, “the Armenian Genocide is not controversial, but rather is denied only by
the Turkish government and its apologists.”
Nor is this a new issue. The Honorable Henry Morgenthau, U.S. Ambassador to
Turkey from 1913-16, wrote the following in his memoir:
When the Turkish authorities gave the order for these deportations, they were
merely giving the death warrant to a whole race; they understood this well, and,
in their conversations with me, they made no particular attempt to conceal this
fact. . . I am confident that the whole history of the human race contains no
such horrible episode as this. The great massacres and persecutions of the past
seem almost insignificant when compared to the sufferings of the Armenian race
in 1915.
In 1920, U.S. Senate Resolution 359 heard testimony on the “mutilation,
violation, torture, and death” of countless Armenians, to quote American
Lieutenant General James Harbord, who further referred to the genocide as the
“most colossal crime of all the ages.”
In her memoir, Ravished Armenia, Aurora Mardiganian described being raped and
thrown into a harem (consistent with Islam’s rules of war). Unlike thousands of
other Armenian girls who were discarded after being defiled, she managed to
escape. In the city of Malatia, she saw 16 Christian girls crucified: “Each girl
had been nailed alive upon her cross,” she wrote, “spikes through her feet and
hands, only their hair blown by the wind, covered their bodies.” Such scenes
were portrayed in the 1919 documentary film Auction of Souls, including the
above still frame of crucified girls.
Whereas the genocide is largely acknowledged in the West—long before this new
resolution over 40 American states had formally recognized it—one of its primary
if not fundamental causes is habitually overlooked: religion (Muslim Turks
vis-à-vis Christian Armenians).
The genocide is unfortunately articulated through a singularly secular paradigm
that focuses almost exclusively on nationalism, identity, territorial disputes,
etc.—thereby projecting modern, secular Western sensibilities onto vastly
different characters and eras.
War, of course, is another factor that clouds the true essence of the genocide.
Because these atrocities mostly occurred during World War I, so the argument
goes, they are ultimately a reflection of just that—war, in all its chaos and
destruction, and nothing more. But as Winston Churchill, who described the
massacres as an “administrative holocaust,” correctly observed, “The opportunity
[WWI] presented itself for clearing Turkish soil of a Christian race.” Even
Adolf Hitler had pointed out that “Turkey is taking advantage of the war in
order to thoroughly liquidate its internal foes, i.e., the indigenous
Christians, without being thereby disturbed by foreign intervention.”
Even the most cited factor of the Armenian Genocide, “ethnic identity conflict,”
while legitimate, must be understood in light of the fact that, historically,
religion often accounted more for a person’s identity than language or heritage.
This is daily demonstrated throughout the Islamic world today, where Muslim
governments and Muslim mobs persecute Christian minorities who share the same
race, ethnicity, language, and culture; minorities who are indistinguishable
from the majority—except, of course, for being non-Muslims, or “infidels.”
As one Armenian studies professor asks, “If it [the Armenian Genocide] was a
feud between Turks and Armenians, what explains the genocide carried out by
Turkey against the Christian Assyrians at the same time?” The same can be said
about the Greeks (some 750,000 of whom were liquidated during WWI). From a
Turkish perspective, the primary thing Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks had in
common was that they were all Christians—“infidels.”
And the same can be said of all those Christian and other non-Muslim minorities
who were most recently targeted for genocide by ISIS — another genocide
recognized by the U.S., also conducted during the chaos of war, and against
those whose only crime was, again, simply to be “infidels.”
Note: Chapter 4 of the author’s recent book, Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen
Centuries of War between Islam and the West, documents how the first “genocide”
of Armenians at the hands of Turks actually began precisely one millennium ago,
in the year 1019.
Indifference is the EU’s greatest enemy
Bill Emmott/Arab News/October 31/2019
In another bizarre twist in the Brexit saga, the UK’s Parliament has signaled
its acceptance of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal deal with the EU,
but has also agreed to a general election on Dec. 12 before the deal can finally
be ratified. EU leaders could be forgiven an ironic smile. Even though opinion
polls give Johnson’s pro-Brexit Conservatives a commanding lead as the campaign
opens, they also indicate that a clear majority of British voters— larger than
the one that backed “Leave” in the 2016 referendum — actually favors remaining
in the EU.
But EU leaders may want to contain their smiles. The bloc’s biggest enemy is not
euroskeptic hostility, but rather indifference. Although polls taken even before
the Brexit referendum tended to show a majority for “Remain,” they also found
that most Britons didn’t care about the EU one way or another. The question of
EU membership simply wasn’t a priority issue for most people. It was assumed
that voters would select the less risky option and support Remain. In fact,
their indifference put the referendum up for grabs.
As a result, random contingencies or the effectiveness of either side’s rhetoric
had the potential to push the result over the line in either direction. In the
event, immigration had become an especially potent issue in 2016, owing to media
images of mass migration and refugee flows across the Mediterranean and the
Balkans. For the Leave campaign, the EU’s failure to manage the crisis was a
boon.
Yet, when future historians look back at this episode, they will probably
conclude there was an ocean of apathy between two sets of hardcore true
believers on each side of the European question. Britain had always been a
semi-reluctant EU member state, so it didn’t take much to tip the balance
slightly in favor of leaving. The key moment came when then-Prime Minister David
Cameron, driven by political dynamics within the Conservative Party, made the
fateful decision to hold a referendum on the issue, amid the economic and
political stress of the long recession that followed the 2008 global financial
crisis.
Ever since the establishment of the European Economic Community (the precursor
to the EU) in 1957, many Britons have had a rather detached, sometimes even
condescending, view of European integration. This remained the case even after
the UK’s accession to the bloc in 1973 and even after a significant majority of
British voters affirmed EU membership in a referendum in 1975. For the British,
being a part of “Europe” was a transactional relationship, not a marriage of
love.
By contrast, the countries that suffered the most from two world wars and German
occupation during the Second World War (France, the Netherlands, Belgium and
Italy) have always had deeper, more sentimental reasons for supporting the EU.
The specter of war features prominently in these countries’ collective memory,
even among younger generations that were born long after peace had been secured.
But even continental Europeans’ commitment to the European project should not be
taken for granted. This month, the think tank Friends of Europe published an
opinion pollbased on interviews with more than 12,000 respondents across the 28
EU countries. It found that 60 percent of respondents “aren’t sure they would
miss the EU if it were gone.” That result should chill the bones of all EU
leaders.
Predictably, the share of British respondents who aren’t sure if they would miss
the EU is 63 percent. But a staggering 72 percent of French respondents feel the
same way, as do 67 percent of Italians and 60 percent of Germans. On this
evidence, the EU’s biggest problem is that citizens simply take it for granted
and do not particularly care whether it thrives or fades away.
For the British, being a part of ‘Europe’ was a transactional relationship, not
a marriage of love.
This problem may reflect a failure of communication. After all, a supranational
bureaucratic entity comprising an endless array of directorates, agencies and
committees was always going to find it hard to be loved, or even to explain what
it does and why it exists. But the bigger problem is that the EU struggles to
make quick, clear and ambitious decisions. It has a far easier time saying no
than yes. It is a lot better at defusing conflicts among members than it is at
mustering collective action in the interest of clearly defined, shared
objectives.
This wasn’t always the case. The launch of the euro in 1999 was a big, clear,
epochal moment, following a major political decision and the successful
implementation of many technical measures. But, since then, things haven’t gone
well when it comes to the one issue that most concerns ordinary voters: The euro
zone’s effectiveness at creating jobs and ensuring rising living standards.
Nowadays, the euro elicits reluctant acceptance, not passion and conviction.
The slogan of Britain’s famed Special Air Service is, “Who Dares Wins.” But, in
the case of Brexit, one could adapt it to say, “Who Cares Wins.” In the run-up
to the 2016 referendum, pro-EU forces failed to make enough Britons care about
EU membership. Perhaps that will change during the December general election
campaign, but it would be risky to bet on it. Proponents of the EU across the
other member states should take note. Indifference is their greatest enemy.
*Bill Emmott, a former editor in chief of The Economist, is the author of “The
Fate of the West.” Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
Students need time management skills if they are to succeed
Nidhal Guessoum/Arab News/October 31/2019
I have become increasingly alarmed at how much time students and youngsters
waste and how they seem incapable of setting daily, weekly and yearly priorities
and managing them successfully. Digital tools can greatly help people manage
their time effectively and efficiently, but they are also, unfortunately, the
main cause for this timewasting phenomenon.
When I walk into a classroom nowadays, the students who are there waiting for
the next lecture are invariably hunched over their smartphones, reading and
typing messages or other such nonstop social media activity. The digital
addiction is obvious. Moreover, one can often find students playing smartphone/internet
games during the “free” hours they have between classes. And I can only imagine
how weekends are spent.
Study habits are also problematic, as it is not uncommon for a student to tell
me that they spent most of a night “cramming” for an exam or finishing an
assignment. This not only affects their sleep very badly, it is not even
effective as a study strategy.
Time management is a huge topic, on which people have published bestselling
books, conducted workshops, and developed all kinds of programs (video series,
smartphone apps, etc.), to varying degrees of success. Indeed, the fact that
millions of people buy books, watch videos and sign up for workshops on time
management is indicative of the need, not necessarily of the effectiveness of
those products. In education, many schools conduct time management lectures or
workshops for their students; some universities even offer courses on the
subject.
The problem is a modern one, of course. Companies and institutions are seeking
to maximize productivity, trying to squeeze every minute from their employees.
And competition at the individual level has pushed us to try to use time to the
utmost, reducing the amount of sleep we get in the process (recent studies have
shown that average nightly sleep periods have dropped from more than eight hours
to less than seven).
It is amazing that, in times when we have digital calendars, many people are
incapable of managing their time and activities properly
There also seems to be increasing demands on our time: Work, communication (text
messages and email), exercise, family and social, hobbies, entertainment,
travel, and more. But at the same time, our attention spans have shrunk, our
ability to control life has weakened, and our capacity to prioritize tasks and
achieve our goals appears to be slipping away.
It is amazing that, in times when we have digital calendars such as “Outlook,”
where we can easily program tasks weeks and months in advance and get
notifications and reminders as we choose (hours or days ahead), many people are
incapable of managing their time and activities properly.
Organizing one’s weekly, monthly and yearly schedule helps one complete more
tasks, as one dynamically manages them by rescheduling some as things evolve.
With this, however, comes the danger of seeing many “empty” slots on the screen
and thus being tempted to fill them with more tasks. It is important to know how
much one can do and not overfill one’s calendar and then start to feel depressed
for not being able to complete all the tasks.
Greater productivity reduces stress, increases one’s self-esteem and happiness,
raises one’s professional reputation (as a doer), leads to promotion and career
advancement, and improves one’s social relations. Conversely, procrastinating
and missing deadlines or submitting hashed, last-minute work will only lead to
low professional status and reputation and increased stress and psychosomatic
illnesses.
In addition to such easy tools for time management, there are work management
strategies to help complete tasks and work. One simple tactic is to break big
jobs into more manageable bites, for instance by writing an outline of a report,
thus achieving a little milestone, and then seeing the sections of the report as
small upcoming tasks that one will more readily approach.
Coming back to students, we need to teach them how to manage time and work
properly, how to study in effective and efficient ways, and how to thus succeed
by achieving their full potential, being happy and enjoying their time in
school.
My students are always amazed when I tell them that never in my long years of
study (all the way up to my doctoral courses and thesis) did I stay up past
midnight. In fact, I rarely studied past 10pm, as I am an early-to-bed person
(and an early riser). It is all a question of managing your 24 hours. Even if
you stay up all night, you still have the same 24 hours as I have; I may just be
using mine more efficiently, giving myself more time to sleep, being in good
mental shape when I sit down to study or work, and thus performing better and
succeeding more.
Managing time well in this digital age with all its distractions is a challenge
that we need to prepare our children and students for. It is a skill that can
serve them well their whole lives, on both the personal and professional levels.
*Nidhal Guessoum is a professor at the American University of Sharjah, UAE.
Twitter: @NidhalGuessoum
Iran’s Nuclear Steps and the New IAEA Chief
Simon Henderson and Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/October 31/2019
The steady weakening by Tehran of its international nuclear commitments will be
the most immediate challenge for the next head of the world’s nuclear watchdog.
On October 29, board members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
meeting in Vienna, made their choice for the next director-general, replacing
Yukiya Amano of Japan, who died in July after a long illness. The winning
candidate, who still has to be approved by the full membership, is Rafael
Mariano Grossi of Argentina, who secured the necessary two-thirds majority in
the third ballot. His competition was acting director-general Cornel Feruta of
Romania. Both are very experienced in nuclear diplomacy, but the Wall Street
Journal reported Feruta had wanted to continue the deliberate, careful approach
of Amano, while Grossi prefers to shake up the agency, including a “firm but
fair” approach to Iran.
TEHRAN’S PLANS
The challenge of Iran is both technical and diplomatic. The IAEA is charged with
monitoring the country’s adherence to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), by which the Islamic Republic agreed with the United States,
Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany to an arrangement that “will ensure
that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful.” But, citing the
JCPOA’s inadequacies, the Trump administration withdrew in May 2018. Then,
earlier this year, Israel announced that it had discovered and stolen part of
Iran’s archive indicating that its nuclear weapons ambitions, to which Tehran
had never admitted, were much larger and more advanced than previously
appreciated.
Since May 2019, Tehran has announced a series of steps to reduce its JCPOA
commitments, claiming justification because of U.S. hostility, growing
sanctions, particularly on its oil exports, and the lifting of nuclear-related
waivers. Iran has promised to continue reducing its commitments at sixty-day
intervals if sanctions are not eased:
On May 8, Iran announced it would no longer be committed to a 300-kilogram cap
on its stockpile of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enriched to 3.67 percent in the
crucial isotope U-235. (Normal uranium contains 0.7 percent of U-235. UF6, or
“hex,” is—as a gas—the feedstock for centrifuges, although it is a solid at room
temperature.)
On July 7, Iran started to enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent to 4.5 percent.
(Enrichment to more than 90 percent is needed for a nuclear weapon.)
On September 6, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, announced that his country was
canceling its commitment to a timetable for resumption of unrestricted nuclear
research and development. Shortly afterward, it began installing more advanced
centrifuges than allowed under the JCPOA, potentially shortening the time to
produce enough high-enriched uranium (HEU) needed for a nuclear weapon. (The
usual figure given for the amount of such nuclear explosive material needed is
25 kilograms—about 55 pounds—and roughly the size of a grapefruit.)
The next, fourth, step is expected to be announced in the first week of
November.
Parallel to these changes, leading Iranian officials have been suggesting loudly
the steps that could come next. These include increasing the number of
centrifuges in operation beyond the JCPOA limit of 5,060, by reopening for
nuclear use the deep-in-a-mountain Fordow enrichment facility, which under the
JCPOA was to be repurposed for nonnuclear research. Comments have also touched
on the Arak heavy-water reactor, which is of concern because its original design
is favorable to the production of plutonium, another potential nuclear
explosive. President Rouhani said in October that work was being done on two
previously undisclosed centrifuge designs, the IR-7 and IR-9. The enrichment
process can be shortened using higher-speed and taller centrifuges, but this
requires them to be made of tougher material, such as high-strength special
steel or carbon fiber.
Of probable greatest concern to the incoming IAEA director-general will have
been speculative Iranian commentary that the fourth step may include reducing
access to the international agency by cutting Iran’s implementation of safeguard
agreements to which it has previously committed. These currently allow the IAEA
to inspect Iran, as well as other countries, using a combination of visiting
specialists and remote-controlled monitors, and to report on all its nuclear
work, in particular the production of enriched uranium.
Apprehensions over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles were heightened by a
comment from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on October 9, when, according to the
BBC, he said on a video clip published on his official Twitter account:
“Developing and storing [nuclear bombs] is wrong because using them is haram
[forbidden by Islamic law].” Experts on proliferation, who have indicated
Iranian officials should be monitored as much for what they don’t as what they
do say, noted that this phrasing does not restrict accumulating nuclear
explosive material.
PROCUREMENT WORRIES
Illicit procurement remains of particular concern for the international
community. Since 2015, each quarterly IAEA report on Iran has noted the
country’s compliance with its obligations, but in July 2019 three Iranians were
charged in New York with trying to illegally export “many tons” of carbon fiber,
a material that can be used in missile nose cones as well as some types of
enrichment centrifuges. One of the Iranians, extradited from Germany, is in
detention; the other two are at large. In 2018, the United States and the United
Arab Emirates separately reported instances of the export to Iran of “dual-use
items” that have a potential nuclear purpose. The U.S.-reported shipment
included carbon fiber.
Little mentioned is the possible role of foreign experts in helping Iran
acquire—and use—material and equipment. Both Pakistan, from which Iran received
enrichment technology in the past, and Iraq at the end of Saddam Hussein’s rule,
benefited considerably from foreign assistance by individuals and, in Pakistan’s
case, also China. The IAEA is neither a spy organization nor a police force.
While maintaining full access inside Iran for inspectors is important, a crucial
role remains for customs and the intelligence agents overseas.
Also of interest, traces of uranium were found recently at a carpet-cleaning
facility in Iran, which had not been declared to the IAEA as being
nuclear-related. In September, while in Tehran for meetings, acting IAEA head
Feruta pushed Iran to improve its cooperation with his organization. “Time is of
the essence,” he said at a news conference, adding that he thought “this was a
message very well understood.” Details of the issue in question were deemed
confidential, but a “very general description” was given later to diplomats
attached to the IAEA. An agency spokesman also told journalists that Iran was
making modifications to groups of centrifuges, known as cascades, of a size and
type scrapped under the JCPOA. Specifically, the modifications involved 164
machine cascades of the IR-2m and IR-4 centrifuge types. Such cascades are used
for enriching from 0.7 percent U-235 to 3 percent, and from 3 percent to 20
percent. This higher 20 percent figure is worrisome because getting from this
level to bomb-grade material is theoretically comparatively easy.
SEEKING CLARITY ON A COMPLEX TOPIC
The technical nature of the discussion probably plays to Iran’s advantage
because announced changes to Iranian commitments, joined by speculation about
next steps, produce headlines without context. Some perspective follows here:
5,000 kilograms of natural uranium is needed to produce the 25 kilograms of
90-percent-enriched uranium required for one atomic bomb of the comparatively
old-fashioned weapon design Iran is assumed to have.
About 5,000 centrifuges of Iran’s IR-1 type would take about a year—the
so-called breakout time—to produce the amount of HEU needed for a bomb. About
1,000 centrifuges of its IR-2m model would be needed for the same
result—although for technical reasons, the IR-1 cannot produce HEU, and Iran may
not be able to make the IR-2m work properly, either. Further, more “advanced”
designs may not work efficiently or may take years to develop.
Yet there is little room for complacency. Iran’s continuing centrifuge use and
research allow it to build experience and knowledge. And the nuclear archive
taken by Israel shows that Iran had done considerable work on designing an
implosion weapon, in which an HEU core is squeezed into a critical mass,
creating an explosive chain reaction of the size that devastated the Japanese
cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
Put simply, any further departure by Iran from the JCPOA terms should be viewed
with great concern, especially because of Tehran’s recent dangerous behavior,
albeit denied, in the Gulf area, including the placing of limpet mines on
tankers starting in May and particularly the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s
Abqaiq oil-processing facility in September. This is the wider diplomatic
environment that awaits the incoming IAEA director-general and his reported
firmer approach to the Iran issue.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute. Elana DeLozier is a research
fellow at the Institute.