LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 27/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.may27.19.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
‘Go into all the world and proclaim the good news to the
whole creation
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 16/15-18:”‘Go into all the
world and proclaim the good news to the whole creation. The one who believes and
is baptized will be saved; but the one who does not believe will be condemned.
And these signs will accompany those who believe: by using my name they will
cast out demons; they will speak in new tongues; they will pick up snakes in
their hands, and if they drink any deadly thing, it will not hurt them; they
will lay their hands on the sick, and they will recover
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on May 26-27/19
Politicians, Parties & Clergymen
Hezbollah’s bogus Liberation & Resistance Day
Lebanon's PM Says New Budget Will Lead Lebanon to Economic Safety
Lebanon: No to naturalization of 'Palestinian refugees'
Jumblat Slams 'Foreign Ministry Orientalists' after Bassil Remarks
FPM Says 'Positive Atmosphere' Allows Approving Budget Monday
Hariri: Deficit Reduction is a Message in All Directions
Mustaqbal Says Arsal Resident Tortured, Killed by Syria
Saudi Held at Beirut Airport with 10 Kgs of Captagon
Nadim Gemayel Pledges Steadfastness During Keserwan Tour
Kataeb leader's legal adviser, Lara Saade,Says Failure to Annul Electricity Plan
Would Be an 'Unforgivable Sin'
Lingering economic woes cast huge uncertainties over Lebanon’s future
The 11 trillion lira optical illusion
Israel Reveals Details of Kuntar’s Assassination near Damascus
Hezbollah: US plan could naturalize Arab ‘refugees’
The Lebanese government’s proposed budget exposes its corruption
Paris-Based Lebanese Journalist Maya Khadra: French Politicians Adopt Islamist
Rhetoric To Win Favors Of Muslim Majority In Parisian Suburbs; Qatar Funds
Muslim Brotherhood In France, Europe
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 26-27/19
Pompeo Defends Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan
US Suspects 2 Iran Proxies in Baghdad Embassy Attack
Zarif: Iran Will Defend Itself against Any Aggression
Iraq Warns of 'Danger of War' as Iranian FM Visits
Europe Warns US of New ‘Russian Deception’ in Syria
Syrian Regime Steps Up Air Strikes in Northwest
Egypt: Accused in Nusra Front Case Sought to Target Christians
Fatah Stresses its Rejection of ‘Deal of the Century’ Even If Under Threat
Israel Eases Fishing Restrictions in Gaza
Gaza Suffers Worst Medicine Shortage with Deficit at 52%
As Deadline Looms, Netanyahu Says Coalition Deal Still Possible
Czech Republic Will Not Relocate its Embassy to Jerusalem
Turkey: Kurdish Leader Urges Jailed Supporters to End Hunger Strike'
Casualties in W. Libya Militias Clash over ‘Turkish Spoils’
Haftar Vows to Continue Tripoli Operation until Militias Disarm
UN Chief to Hadi: Yemen Envoy to Redouble Efforts in a Balanced Manner
Venezuela's Guaido Says Will Send Representatives for Talks with Govt.
Final Votes Cast as Europe Chooses Future Course
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on May 26-27/19
Our People In Israel versus the Dhimmitude Lebanese Maronite, Officials,
Politicians, Parties & Clergymen/ Elias Bejjani/May 26/2019
Hezbollah’s bogus Liberation & Resistance Day/Elias Bejjani/May 25/19
Lebanon: No to naturalization of 'Palestinian refugees'/Arutz Sheva/May 26/2019
Lingering economic woes cast huge uncertainties over Lebanon’s future/Simon
Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/May 26/2019
The 11 trillion lira optical illusion/Dan Azzi/Annahar/May 26/2019
Israel Reveals Details of Kuntar’s Assassination near Damascus/Asharq Al-Awsat/May
26/2019
Hezbollah: US plan could naturalize Arab ‘refugees’
AFP, Arutz Sheva Staff,/May 26/2019
The Lebanese government’s proposed budget exposes its corruption/Makram Rabah/Al
Arabiya/26 May/2019
Paris-Based Lebanese Journalist Maya Khadra: French Politicians Adopt Islamist
Rhetoric To Win Favors Of Muslim Majority In Parisian Suburbs; Qatar Funds
Muslim Brotherhood In France, Europe/MEMRI/May 26/2019
Genocide of Christians Reaches "Alarming Stage"/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone
Institute/May 26/2019
Analysis/Trump's Peace Plan Offers Palestinians a Severance Package for the
Occupation/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/26.05.2019
A Swiss diplomat & Iraq’s President – go-betweens for first, US-Iranian talks/
Debka File/May 26/2019
The Shia Militia Mapping Project/Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/May
27/2019
Iranian regime must act to de-escalate tensions with US/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/May 26/2019
How much further can Brexit Britain fall/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 26/2019
Modi faces array of foreign policy challenges/Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/May
26/2019
Implications of Russian S-400 deal continue to haunt Turkey/Yasar Yakis/Arab
News/May 26/2019
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published on May 26-27/19
Our People In Israel versus the Dhimmitude Lebanese Maronite, Officials,
Politicians, Parties & Clergymen
Elias Bejjani/May 26/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75194/elias-bejjani-our-people-in-israel-versus-the-dhimmitude-lebanese-maronite-officials-politicians-parties-clergymen/
“Lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight
paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but
rather be healed”.
Saint Paul’s Letter to the Hebrews 12/12-21
Yesterday, our patriotic Lebanese people who are taking refuge in Israel since
year 2000, were again and again stepped in the back, betrayed and abandoned by
all those Lebanese (Maronite and Christian) parties, politicians and clergymen
who are supposed to carry and defend their just case of resistance and
patriotism.
With no shed of doubt, and with a fully relaxed conscience, one can feel sad,
ashamed and disappointed in regards to the shy rhetoric and cowardice stances
that were not taken, adopted, or declared yesterday in the Iranian occupied
Lebanon in regards to our Southern people who against their will still taking
refuge in Israel and are not allowed to return back to their beloved country,
Lebanon.
These shameful stances of silence, abandonment, denial and Iscariotism were
taken publically yesterday by the majority, if not actually by all the Lebanese
Maronite and Christian politicians, political parties, clergymen and officials
on all levels.
With no self respect, gratitude, witnessing to the truth, or reverence to the
martyrs’ sacrifices they either completely remained mute and silent, or hailed
and glorified the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah who is falsely portrayed as a
liberator of South Lebanon from the Israeli occupation in year 2000 .
They did so on the annual event of the big lie and bogus that is called “The
Liberation Day Of South Lebanon”
Sadly 99% of our Lebanese Maronite and Christian politicians and clergymen in
particular have lost their faith and national obligations, as well as their
memory in regards to our Southern heroic people who were forced by Hezbollah in
year 2000 to take refuge in Israel.
Those leaders and clergymen did yesterday practically and openly downtrodden
and crush intentionally all that is gratitude to our martyrs and to our Southern
people heroism. Their stances were totally disgraceful, pathetic, pitiful and
disgusting.
They hailed and glorified the Iranian occupier, Hezbollah who forced their own
people to escape to Israel.
In conclusion, these Maronite and Christian leaders at all levels who hailed
yesterday the lie of “The Liberation Day) or were cowardly silent and did not
stand up for their own oppressed Southern people, they actually do not represent
the National Lebanese conscience, dignity, history and identity, and accordingly
are not worthy of their current leadership status.
And definitely history will not have mercy on them.
May almighty God and His angles be with out Southern people who are still
against their will taking refuge in Israel.
Hezbollah’s bogus Liberation & Resistance
Day
Elias Bejjani/May 25/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75168/elias-bejjani-hezbollahs-bogus-liberation-resistance-day-3/
Believe it or not, on May 25 each year since 2000 Lebanon has been celebrating
the so-called “Liberation & Resistance Day.”
Sadly, this celebration commemorates a bogus event, and a phony heroism that did
not actually take place.
On May 22, 2000 the Israeli Army unilaterally and for solely Israeli domestic
reasons withdrew from the security zone of South Lebanon in accordance with UN
Resolution 425.
This miscalculated and hasty withdrawal was a fatal Israeli decision that has
inspired the Hamas terrorism acts and the on-going havoc in the Palestinian Gaza
strip.
During the last 19 years many Israeli officials and politicians from all parties
openly and harshly criticized Barak’s Government (Barak was PM at that time)
hasty and unwise decision through which Israel’ abandoned its ally the South
Lebanon Army (SLA) and gave Hezbollah all south Lebanon and the entire Lebanon
on a plate of sliver.
The unilateral Israeli withdrawal created a security vacuum in south Lebanon.
The Syrians who were occupying Lebanon at that time and fully controlling its
government, did not allow the Lebanese Army to deploy in the south and fill this
vacuum after the Israeli withdrawal.
Instead Syria helped the Hezbollah militia to militarily control the whole
southern region, and even patrol the Israeli-Lebanese border.
It is worth mentioning that the Israeli army’s withdrawal was executed without
any military battles, or even minor skirmishes with Hezbollah, or the Lebanese
and Syrian armies.
The Syrian regime, in a bid to justify both its on going occupation of Lebanon
and the avoidance of disarming Hezbollah, came up with the “Shabaa Farms
occupation big lie” and declared Hezbollah a Liberator, alleging it had forced
Israel to withdrawal from South Lebanon.
Syria, in the same camouflaging and devious context, dictated to both its puppet
Lebanese parliament and government to declare May 25th a National Day under the
tag of “Liberation & Resistance Day”.
In reality Hezbollah did not force the Israeli withdrawal, and did not play any
role in the Liberation of the southern Lebanese region.
In fact both Hezbollah and Syria deliberately hindered and delayed the Israeli
withdrawal for more than 14 years.
Every time the Israelis called on the Lebanese government to engage in a joint,
serious effort under the United Nations umbrella to ensure a safe and mutually
organized withdrawal of its army from South Lebanon, the Lebanese government
refused to cooperate, did not agree to deploy its army in the south, and accused
the Israelis of plotting to divide and split the Syrian-Lebanese joint track.
This approach to the Israeli calls was an official Syrian decision dictated to
all the Lebanese puppet governments during the Syrian occupation era.
Since then, Hezbollah has been hijacking Lebanon and its people, refusing to
disarm and advocating for the annihilation of Israel.
This Iranian mullahs’ terrorist army stationed in Lebanon, is viciously hiding
behind labels of resistance, liberation and religion.
Hezbollah has recklessly jeopardized the Lebanese peoples’ lives, safety,
security and livelihood.
It has been growing bolder and bolder in the last 19 years and mercilessly
taking the Lebanese state and the Lebanese people hostage through terrorism,
force and organized crime.
Sadly, Hezbollah is systematically devouring Lebanon day after day, and piece by
piece, while at the same time marginalizing all its governmental institutions in
a bid to topple the Lebanese state and erect in its place a Shiite Muslim
regime, a replica of the Iranian Shiite mullahs’ fundamentalist republic.
Meanwhile the free world and Arabic countries are totally silent, indifferent,
and idly watching from far away the horrible crime unfolding without taking any
practical or tangible measures to put an end to this anti-Lebanese Syria-Iranian
scheme that is executed through their spearhead, the Hezbollah armed militia.
Who is to be blamed for Hezbollah’s current odd and bizarre status?
Definitely the Syrians who have occupied Lebanon for more than 28 years
(1976-2005).
During their bloody and criminal occupation, Syria helped the Iranian Hezbollah
militia build a state within Lebanon and fully control the Lebanese Shiite
community.
But also the majority of the Lebanese politicians, leaders, officials and
clergymen share the responsibility because they were subservient and acted in a
dire Dhimmitude, selfish and cowardly manner.
If these so-called Lebanese leaders had been courageous and patriotic and had
not appeased Hezbollah and turned a blind eye to all its vicious and human
rights atrocities, intimidation tactics, crimes and expansionism schemes, this
Iranian Shiite fundamentalist militia would not have been able to erect its own
mini-state in the southern suburb of Beirut, and its numerous mini-cantons in
the Bekaa Valley and the South; nor would Hezbollah have been able to build its
mighty military power, with 70 thousand militiamen, or stockpile more than 200
thousand missiles and force the Iranian “Wilayat Al-Faqih” religious doctrine on
the Lebanese Shiite community and confiscate Lebanon’s decision making process
and freedoms.
Since Hezbollah’s emergence in 1982, these politicians have been serving their
own selfish interests and not the interests of the Lebanese people and the
nation. They went along with Hezbollah’s schemes, deluding themselves that its
militia and weaponry would remain in South Lebanon and would not turn against
them.
This failure to serve the people of Lebanon allowed Hezbollah to make many
Lebanese and most of the Arab-Muslim countries through its terrorism propaganda
to blindly swallow its big lie of theatrical, faked resistance and Liberation.
Hezbollah would not have been able to refuse to disarm in 1991, like all the
other Lebanese militias in accordance to the “Taef Accord,” which called for the
disarmament of all militias.
Hezbollah would not have become a state inside the Lebanese state, and a
world-wide terrorism Iranian-Syrian tool which turned against them all after its
war with Israel in year 2006 and after the UN troops were deployed on the
Lebanese – Israeli borders in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701.
On May 7, 2008 Hezbollah invaded Sunni Western Beirut killing and injuring in
cold blood hundreds of its civilian citizens, and too attempted to take over by
force Mount Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s General Secretary Sheik Hassan Nasrallah called that day (May 7,
2008) a great and glorious victory for his resistance, and keeps on threatening
the Lebanese that a replicate of that day will take place if they do not succumb
and obey his Iranian orders.
Hezbollah is a deadly dragon that the Lebanese politicians have been allowing
him to feed on sacrifices from the southern Lebanese citizens, especially on
those who were living in the “Security Zone” and who fled to Israel in May 2000
after the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon.
This dragon who enjoyed devouring his southern sacrifices has now turned on all
the Lebanese and if they do not stand for their rights and dignity, he will keep
on devouring them all one after the other.
We call on the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Parliament and on all the free
and patriotic Lebanese politicians and leaders to cancel the May 25 National
Day, because it is not national at all, and also to stop calling Hezbollah a
resistance, put an end for its mini-state, cantons and weaponry, and secure a
dignified, honorable and safe return for all the Lebanese citizens who have been
taking refuge in Israel since May 2000.
N.B: The original version of the above article was first published in 2010..It
is republished with minor changes.
Lebanon's PM Says New Budget Will Lead Lebanon to Economic Safety
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said
Saturday that the draft state budget for 2019 is the start of a “long road” and
shows Lebanon is determined to tackle public sector waste. The cabinet had on
Friday wrapped up marathon talks on the plan. The budget finalized by the
government cuts the deficit to 7.5% of GDP from 11.5% in 2018. It is seen as a
critical test of Lebanon’s will to launch reforms that have been put off for
years by a state riddled with corruption and waste. Lebanon’s bloated public
sector is its biggest expense, followed by the cost of servicing a public debt
equal to some 150% of GDP, one of the world’s heaviest debt burdens. “The 2019
budget is not the end. This budget is the beginning of a long road that we
decided to take in order to lead the Lebanese economy to safety,” Hariri said in
a speech at a Ramadan iftar meal.
The government, which groups nearly all of Lebanon’s main political parties, met
19 times to agree on the budget. Hariri said the budget for 2020 would not take
that much time “because now we know what we want to do”. “The 2019 budget is the
beginning of the process of what we want to do in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023,” he
said, according to a transcript of his remarks sent by his office. The cabinet
is due to meet on Monday at the presidential palace to formally seal the process
before the budget is referred to parliament. The budget could help unlock some
$11 billion in financing pledged at a Paris donors’ conference last year for
infrastructure investment, if it wins the approval of donor countries and
institutions. Hariri said the budget was a message to the Lebanese, financial
markets and friendly foreign states that Lebanon was determined to “address the
weakness, imbalance and squander in the public sector”. Measures to rein in the
public sector wage bill include a three-year freeze in all types of state hiring
and a cap on extra-salary bonuses. State pensions will also be taxed. A big
chunk of the deficit cut stems from tax increases including a 2% import tax and
a hike in tax on interest payments.
The government also plans to cut some $660 million from the debt servicing bill
by issuing treasury bonds at a 1% interest rate to the Lebanese banking sector.
Fears the budget would lead to cuts to state salaries, pensions or benefits
triggered weeks of strikes and protests by public sector workers and military
veterans.
Lebanon: No to naturalization of 'Palestinian refugees'
Arutz Sheva/May 26/2019
/Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil on Saturday
stressed the need to work for the return of “Palestinian” and Syrian refugees
residing in Lebanon to their countries of origin. Speaking at an Iftar meal at
the conclusion of the daily Ramadan fast, Bassil said that Lebanon is determined
to thwart any plan aimed at naturalizing the “Palestinian” and Syrian refugees
in its territory. “The danger of resettlement has expanded today and there is a
clear desire that they remain in our country, while our duty is to return them
to their country after the difficult period passes," added Bassil.
Earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed that the US peace
plan could see “Palestinian refugees" permanently settled in host countries
across the region. He claimed the conference's focus on economic issues "may
open the door wide open to the question of naturalizing the Palestinian brothers
in Lebanon and the countries where they are located." The PA demands Israel
allow over 700,000 refugees who fled the area during the creation of the State
of Israel in the late 1940s -- and uniquely, their descendants -- to return to
Israel under the "right of return."According to a census by national authorities
in 2017, an estimated 174,000 "Palestinian refugees" live in Lebanon. The UN
estimates there are tens of thousands more. However, even though the
international definition of "refugee" does not include refugees' descendants,
the when it comes to "Palestinian" refugees, the definition has been
unilaterally expanded in order to ensure the numbers continue to grow.
Jumblat Slams 'Foreign Ministry Orientalists' after Bassil
Remarks
Naharnet/May 26/2019/Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on
Sunday blasted remarks by Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on the Syrian and
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. “We remind the orientalists at the Lebanese
foreign ministry that Zionism displaced most of the Palestinian people under the
slogan that Palestine is a land without people, and the ‘deal of the century’
might displace the rest,” Jumblat tweeted. “The Syrian regime has displaced a
lot of people, turning a part of Syria into a land nearly without people, and
each of them (Israel and Syria), in its own way, considers that it is fighting
terrorism,” he added. “This is a remark for history,” he went on to say.Bassil
had announced Saturday that Lebanon will “defeat the naturalization scheme.”“The
Palestinians and Syrians will return to their land, states and homelands and
this is our determination,” he added.
FPM Says 'Positive Atmosphere' Allows Approving Budget
Monday
Naharnet/May 26/2019/The "positive atmosphere" among the political parties
"allows approving the state budget tomorrow," a senior Free Patriotic Movement
official said in remarks published Sunday. "The happy ending was reached after
18 cabinet sessions in which the budget was heavily scrutinized and discussed,"
the official told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, saying the budget was endorsed in a
"format approved by all parties."The official also ruled out any changes or
amendments "unless the President finds articles that target the poor class.""The
budget is largely acceptable and it has managed to lower deficit to around 7% in
a first" in Lebanon's history, the official added.
Hariri: Deficit Reduction is a Message in All Directions
Naharnet/May 26/2019/Prime Minister Saad Hariri has described the deficit
reduction in the draft 2019 state budget as a "message in all directions."
"Yesterday, we finished the budget and with it we ended the bet of some people
on the failure of the government to reduce the deficit and expenses and control
squander," Hariri said at an iftar banquet. "The percentage of deficit reduction
is a message in all directions, to the Lebanese in the first place, to the
economic sector, the financial markets and our friends in the international
community. The message is that the Lebanese government is determined to address
the weakness, imbalance and squander in the public sector and that it insists on
the highest degree of transparency in implementing the CEDRE program," he added.
"The 2019 budget is not the end. This budget is the beginning of a long road
that we decided to take in order to lead the Lebanese economy to safety," the
premier went on to say. He added: "We have two choices: either we continue as we
are and wait for the World Bank to impose impossible conditions on us, as
happened in Jordan, Egypt and Greece, and then we will be obliged to implement
the conditions. Or we do what we are doing today, do our internal reform before
reaching the danger zone."Noting that this phase "will not be long," Hariri
reassured that "one or two years after implementing CEDRE, things will move
forward.""We had to meet 19 times to approve the budget. Some think that there
was some waste of time. Yes, there was in some places. But in others no, because
for the first time, we were working as a group to reach the best figures and
projects to reduce the deficit. It is not easy, especially that many political
groups gathered to prepare the budget, and each has its economic ideas and wants
to come out as the winner," Hariri noted. He however said that "Lebanon is the
winner from this budget, and not any political team.""The Lebanese are the
winners and this is what was important to me. This is why I took time and was
very patient. But the 2020 budget will not take that much, because now we know
what we want to do. The 2019 budget is the beginning of the process of what we
want to do in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023," Hariri added.
Mustaqbal Says Arsal Resident Tortured, Killed by Syria
Naharnet/May 26/2019/A Lebanese man from the northeastern border town of Arsal
was tortured before being killed by Syrian forces, al-Mustaqbal Movement’s Arsal
department said on Sunday. “Arsal bids farewell at noon to its martyr Hussein
al-Hujeiri, who was killed by the Syrian regime’s criminality after its troops
made an incursion into Lebanese territory in Arsal’s hills, where they kidnapped
Hujeiri and his companions Wissam Kranbi and Nayef Rayed,” the department said
in a statement. “They took them into Syrian territory after assaulting them as
they were on a hunting trip in the Wadi al-Shahout area,” it added. It noted
that Hujeiri’s body, which was retrieved by Lebanon’s General Security agency on
Saturday, carried “torture” marks. “He was hit on the head with a sharp object
while the fate of his two companions is still unknown,” Mustaqbal said. “We are
exerting efforts with General Security to unveil their fate, liberate them and
return them safe to their families and country,” it added. Describing the
incident as a “dangerous attack on Arsal and its people,” the department
lamented that “the Lebanese border is being violated daily by the Syrian
regime’s army.”“Arsal cannot accept the continuation of this dangerous situation
on its border and it calls on the Lebanese state to pay attention anew to its
border area and to activate the Lebanese Army’s missions in controlling the
border and preventing the violation of Lebanese sovereignty,” Mustaqbal’s
department in Arsal urged.
Saudi Held at Beirut Airport with 10 Kgs of Captagon
Naharnet/May 26/2019/A Saudi man was arrested Sunday at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri
International Airport as he was attempting to smuggle Captagon narcotic pills to
the United Arab Emirates. The National News Agency said the man, H. al-Roueily,
was detained in a joint operation between the Airport Security Apparatus and the
army’s Intelligence Directorate. He had around ten kilograms of Captagon in his
possession.
Nadim Gemayel Pledges Steadfastness During Keserwan Tour
Kataeb.org/May 26/2019/MP Nadim Gemayel stressed unwavering commitment to his
political constants and positions, pledging to work constantly for the unity of
the Lebanese, notably the Christians, in order to build the state that martyr
President Bachir Gemayel had long aspired to. Gemayel carried out a tour in
several Keserwan villages, namely Hayyata, Ghebaleh and Aaramoun where he
listened to the residents' complaints and concerns.
Kataeb leader's legal adviser, Lara Saade,Says Failure to
Annul Electricity Plan Would Be an 'Unforgivable Sin'
Naharnet/May 26/2019/Kataeb leader's legal adviser, Lara Saade, on Sunday noted
that any Constitutional Council decision that does not include the annulment of
the electricity plan would be an "unforgivable sin" and deal a harsh blow to the
reputation and standing of said institution. “Unfortunately, we have been
hearing that tremendous pressure is being put on the Constitutional Council so
that the Law 129 would not be annulled," Saade said in an interview on Voice of
Lebanon radio station. "We also came to know that one of the council members had
visited the Baabda palace to inform the President of the body's work," she
pointed out. “We know that the two appeals that the Constitutional Council is
examining are the one that contests the win of MP Dima Jamali in the
parliamentary by-elections and the electricity plan challenge. Therefore, the
Constitutional Council’s work should not be discussed with any of the other
constitutional authorities."Earlier this month, Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel
submitted to the Constitutional Council a challenge contesting the electricity
plan approved last month by the government, after garnering the ten requisite
signatures. Saade pointed out that the power plan violates mainly the Article 36
of the Constitution which stipulates that votes in Parliament should be cast
verbally or by the members rising and sitting, except in case of elections when
the ballot shall be secret. With respect to laws in general, the vote shall
always be taken by roll-call and in an audible voice; something that did not
take place during the ratification of the plan in the Parliament. Saade said
that the plan also goes against Article 89 of the Constitution which clearly
states that "no obligation nor concession to exploit the natural resources of
the country, nor any service of public utility, nor any monopoly may be granted
except according to law and for a limited time."
Lingering economic woes cast huge uncertainties over
Lebanon’s future
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/May 26/2019
TUNIS - A draft policy statement in February predicted a “difficult and painful”
time for Lebanon because, after nine months of wrangling over forming a new
government, it outlined measures that would halt the country’s slide further
into debt.
That proposal was still a work in progress at the end of May. After 12 sessions,
Lebanon’s cabinet adjourned until May 27, the day a multimillion-dollar Eurobond
matures, as works on a fiscal reform plan to reassure foreign donors while
providing the ground for growth is hoped to be agreed upon.
The task ahead is daunting. Retired soldiers picketed the central bank over
rumoured reductions to their pensions, the same institution whose staff members
recently suspended a strike over fears of cuts in benefits. That the Lebanese
economy is failing is unlikely a surprise. In 2011, the Financial Times warned
that, despite that year’s 8% growth in GDP, Lebanon’s reliance on domestic
consumption and hard currency remittances from the diaspora imperilled the
country’s financial future.This year, with much of the region in chaos, hard
currency remittances relatively stagnant and foreign reserves dwindling, the
Financial Times’ warning is looking prescient.
Like much in Lebanese politics, attributing responsibility for the financial
situation is far from straightforward.
“There is a deep disagreement today on who bears the cost of the austerity,”
Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa research at Eurasia Group,
told Bloomberg News. “Is it the financial sector, the government and the public
sector or politicians and their related enterprises?”
Despite the long-running nature of the difficulties assailing the Lebanese
economy, some are attributing part of the responsibility for the difficulties on
the August 2017 pay increase given public sector workers. At the time, the pay
rise was estimated to cost the country around $800 million per year.
However, this was an undervaluation because, with retirement benefits and
end-of-service indemnities factored in, the cost outstripped government
estimates. Also, the tax hike that accompanied the wage rise garnered lower than
anticipated revenues.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, posting on Twitter in April, stated:
“If a reduction is not implemented, no salaries will be left for anyone.”
Irrespective of any wage rise, Lebanon’s books don’t add up. The Ministry of
Finance said the country had revenues of $12.5 billion last year but spent more
than $16.5 billion. This included $2 billion in subsidies to the state-owned
electricity company. In addition, servicing its debt increased an annual 8% to
$5.5 billion in 2018.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s plan is to cut nearly $800 million in
spending to reduce a budget deficit that reached 11% of GDP last year. The
country’s public debt, estimated to reach more than 160% of GDP in 2019, is
projected to rise to nearly 180% of GDP by 2023, the International Monetary Fund
said. Growth is vital in offsetting the effects of such cuts. However,
confidence that reforms, needed to spur growth, would be enacted is low. US bank
JPMorgan recently revised its 2019 forecast for Lebanon’s economic growth down
1.3% for 2019 and cautioned against “significant downside risks” surrounding any
fiscal reforms.
“[D]elays in the execution of much needed reforms could dent confidence against
the background of large fiscal and external deficits and high debt,” JPMorgan
Securities Chief Economist Giyas Gokkent wrote in a note.
At stake is the $11 billion in international funding for Lebanon secured at the
CEDRE Conference in April 2018, all of which is dependent on the government
following through with reform.
Some hope exists that the country’s debts will be met in the short term. A
source told Reuters the government should be able to meet the May 27 $650
million Eurobond deadline by drawing upon a foreign exchange transaction with
the central bank, an unusual method of financing but one the Lebanese government
has relied on previously. How the government will meet further bonds due this
year is uncertain.
However, problems exist. Both the central and commercial banks, which hold more
than 85% of the country’s debt, recently demanded reforms to reduce public
spending and address corruption endemic in Lebanon in return for continuing to
fund the government.
Beyond short-term measures, the position is far from clear and restoring
international confidence in Lebanon’s economy will prove vital. Following the
drawn-out budget process and with optimism low, the cost of insuring Lebanon’s
debt has climbed to its highest level since January 22, when the country was
ostensibly without a government.
That the forthcoming budget will likely be the most austere in Lebanon’s history
has been assumed. Which sections of Lebanon’s society will bear the brunt of
those cuts is unclear.
“We have our salaries and we have arranged our lives accordingly,” Abbas Awadeh,
head of the employees’ syndicate at Lebanon’s central bank, told Al-Monitor.
“Any salary cuts will definitely affect my family and my life. That’s what we
are defending.”
The 11 trillion lira optical illusion
Dan Azzi/Annahar/May 26/2019
Previously, the swap between the Ministry of Finance and BDL, as well as all the
financial engineering transactions, increased government dollar debt in exchange
for printing Lira.
There’s talk in the market about banks being “asked” to subscribe to 11 trillion
Lira ($7.3 billion) at 1% interest. Naturally, the banking community is enraged,
because it’s around a $600 million hit to their bottom line.
On the positive side, this would denominate our government’s liabilities in its
own currency. Previously, the swap between the Ministry of Finance and BDL, as
well as all the financial engineering transactions, increased government dollar
debt in exchange for printing Lira. This changed the composition of our debt
from mostly Lira, a currency we control, to dollars, a currency we don’t,
thereby reducing our flexibility and options. Thus, even though this debt is
internal, i.e. funded by Lebanese depositors, sooner or later, we need to import
dollars to pay them back, and this is now becoming a challenge.
It also decelerates the increase in the Lira money supply (printing money) which
came out of the Financial Engineering transactions (Swaps) over the last three
years. To understand this better, let’s go back to 2016. You might remember in
the second half of 2016, you saw a lot of ads about Lira credit cards, 20-year
mortgages at 0% in Lira (lower than dollars!), and other seemingly crazy offers.
This was due to the market distortions caused by the first huge swap, when the
central bank gave the banks the Lira from the swap, which swamped the market.
This dilemma was resolved in subsequent swaps by keeping the Lira deposited in
the central bank (at a high-interest rate), so it doesn’t drown the market. Of
course, when (or if) this eventually paid back, we’ll run into the same problem
again, at a much larger scale, creating huge pressure on the currency, but
that’s a problem for another day. In the meantime, this 11 trillion would be
equivalent to reversing (in some ways, “un-printing”) some of this excess Lira
owed to the banks.
However, the real problem is the balance of payment deficit. Dollars flow in
through things like Expat remittances, Direct Foreign Investment, UN aid to
support the refugees, and our exports. Dollars flow out to buy imports, like
cars from Japan, phones from Korea, clothes from France, toys from China, and
cigars from Cuba. Dollars also flow out through our vacations in Turkey or the
Champs-Élysées. Net dollars are what’s left after adding up all the dollars
flowing into the country and subtracting all the dollars flowing out. These net
dollars are technically referred to as the Balance of Payment Surplus (if it’s
positive) or Balance of Payment Deficit (if it’s negative). Because our exports
are tiny, and progressively dwindling, and because our demand for imports has
grown markedly over the years, we have been having a Balance of Payment Deficit,
with an estimated $20 billion walking out of the country since 2010. This has
now gotten to a critical stage, because it’s been negative every single month,
totaling $7.3 billion since June (see above screenshot from BDL website). In
other words, real dollars are flowing out of the country.
While deposits are increasing artificially due to the high interest being paid,
the available real dollars are decreasing. This curtails every bank’s ability to
meet demands for cash withdrawal or transfers overseas (including for the
purposes of buying imports). You might have witnessed small manifestations of
this dollar shortage, like when your regular ATM machine is empty, or they limit
your cash withdrawal amount, or they make you split the amount of an overseas
transfer over several periods, or you tried to cash a dollar check and they ask
you if you’ll take Lira instead.
The balance of payment deficit is dangerous, because, if not reversed, this
would lead to either a currency devaluation or a haircut on deposits or a
government default.
These are tiny cracks in the system, but they’ve been happening more frequently,
which is why they’ve suddenly become so draconian about the government budget,
for the first time in decades.
The 11 trillion Lira issuance by the government funded by banks doesn’t
alleviate this problem because it doesn’t import new dollars to counterbalance
the outward flow. The big glob of cash in the country stays the same (or
increases, due to interest, i.e. fake money or mere accounting entries on a
computer). This new issuance simply moves money from one pocket (banks) to the
government. When the government spends it, most of it ends up converted to
dollars and leaking out of the country, in the same vicious BOP deficit cycle.
What this means is that there are fewer “real” dollars to meet potential
liabilities (which are progressively increasing) that come up through people
withdrawing money.
But couldn't they sell Eurobonds to foreigners and raise dollar cash? Well, if
they could do that, they would have issued new ones already, wouldn’t they?
*Dan Azzi is a regular contributor to Annahar. He has recently been invited to
be an Advanced Leadership Initiative Fellow at Harvard University, a program for
senior executives to leverage their experience and apply it to a problem with
social impact. Dan’s research focus at Harvard will be economic and political
reform in a hypothetical small country riddled with corruption and negligence.
Previously, he was the Chairman and CEO of Standard Chartered Bank Lebanon.
Israel Reveals Details of Kuntar’s Assassination near
Damascus
Asharq Al-Awsat/May 26/2019
A former Israeli army officer confirmed Tel Aviv’s responsibility for the
assassination of “dean of liberated detainees from Israeli prisons” Samir Kuntar
in Jaramana, near Damascus, in late 2015. Kuntar, who spent nearly 30 years in
Israeli prisons and was involved in fighting with the Syrian regime forces and
Lebanese Hezbollah party in the ongoing war in Syria, was killed in an air
strike targeting him. The Israeli official said the operation was carried out by
two planes that bombed a building with four long-range missiles after receiving
information from “one of the leaders of the Syrian opposition factions.”Israeli
political and military officials at the time welcomed his assassination, but Tel
Aviv did not claim responsibility for the operation. “Samir Kuntar, the longest
serving Arab prisoner in Israeli jails, was killed in a terrorist rocket attack
targeting a building in the southern parts of Jaramana, Damascus countryside,”
the Sana news agency reported at the time. Before his assassination, six members
of Hezbollah and an Iranian military official were killed in an Israeli raid on
Quneitra, southern Syria in early 2015. Among those killed was Jihad Mughniyeh,
son of the group's late military leader Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in
Damascus in 2008. Syrian opposition officials at the time said that the victims
of the raid were members of Kuntar’s unit. The Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights had previously said that Kuntar was the target of various failed Israeli
assassination attempts in Syria. The details of his assassination had remained a
mystery until they were revealed by former Israeli army officer, Lt. Marco Morno,
on Thursday. He explained that one of the opposition leaders in Syria had
relayed to Israeli military intelligence the information that contributed to
Kuntar’s liquidation. Israel’s Mfzak Life website reported on Friday that Israel
did not acknowledge this operation at the time despite reports that confirmed
its involvement. The website said the information disclosed by Morno was allowed
to be published under military censorship. It said Morno was a former officer in
Unit 504 and was responsible for communicating with Syrian opposition factions.
Kuntar was the longest-serving Lebanese prisoner held in Israel. He was released
on July 16, 2008 as part of a prisoner swap between Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah: US plan could naturalize Arab ‘refugees’
AFP, Arutz Sheva Staff,/May 26/2019
The head of Lebanon’s Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah on Saturday said a
long-delayed US peace plan could see Palestinian Authority (PA) “refugees”
permanently settled in host countries across the region.Speaking days after the
US announced a May conference in Bahrain to lay out economic aspects of its
long-awaited Israeli-Palestinian Authority peace plan, Hezbollah chief Hassan
Nasrallah said it is an “ominous deal aimed at eliminating the Palestinian
cause.”
He claimed the conference’s focus on economic issues “may open the door wide
open to the question of naturalizing the Palestinian brothers in Lebanon and the
countries where they are located.”
The PA demands Israel allow over 700,000 refugees who fled the area during the
creation of the State of Israel in the late 1940s — and uniquely, their
descendants — to return to Israel under the “right of return.”
According to a census by national authorities in 2017, an estimated 174,000
“Palestinian refugees” live in Lebanon. The UN estimates there are tens of
thousands more. However, even though the international definition of “refugee”
does not include refugees’ descendants, the when it comes to “Palestinian”
refugees, the definition has been unilaterally expanded in order to ensure the
numbers continue to grow. Last year, the true number of “Palestinian” refugees
was estimated to be around 20,000. Hezbollah has long championed the “refugees'”
cause, but the “refugees'” presence is controversial in Lebanon, where many
blame them for causing the bitter civil war that ravaged the country between
1975 and 1990.
Lebanon’s still-temporary refugee camps suffer poverty, overcrowding,
unemployment, poor and dangerous housing conditions and a lack of
infrastructure.
Today, “it’s not enough to say we’re all against naturalization — the danger of
naturalization is approaching,” Nasrallah said during a televised address
marking the 19th anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
He called for an urgent meeting between government and Palestinian Authority
officials in Lebanon to “develop a plan to confront the danger.”
The PA leadership has said it will boycott the June 25-26 meeting in Manama,
where the declared aim is to promote PA prosperity as part of Trump’s “deal of
the century.” The Trump administration is expected to unveil its long-awaited
plan possibly as early as next month. The Bahrain conference could see
large-scale investment pledges for the PA but is unlikely to focus heavily on
the political issues at the core of the conflict, such as the question of the
so-called refugees.
The Lebanese government’s proposed budget exposes its corruption
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/26 May/2019
The cabinet of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has to date met 19 times,
working late into the night to try to hammer out the country’s budget. But the
result thus far has been disappointing. The passing of an annual budget is one
of the routine duties of any cabinet, and yet Hariri has managed to fall short –
hastening Lebanon’s economic collapse.
With $80 billion national debt, the Lebanese economy and the government face
many challenges, the primary one being the implementation of structural
financial reform and strict austerity measures. Once these measures are in
place, the way would be paved for the release of the $11 billion in pledges from
the CEDRE conference held in Paris in the spring of 2018.
In reality, however, most of the cabinet’s proposed austerity and fiscal
measures expose the incompetence of the Hariri government to draft a budget
while avoiding a social uprising, one that would destroy what remains of the
Lebanese state.
In order to augment government revenues, and instead of taxing the wealthy, the
Hariri government plans to slash the salaries and benefits of its public
servants. This measure also extends to government pensioners, including veterans
of the armed forces and other security agencies. Naturally, this evoked the
anger of those concerned, who refused to relinquish their rights, demanding that
the government change its whole approach to the matter – a plea which was
ignored by the ruling elite.
As a result, public sector workers and military veterans took to the streets,
blockaded the government headquarters, and ultimately tried to storm it, a move
that led security forces to violently suppress their fellow public servants. It
was a sight that will surely do irreparable damage to the state’s morale.
Some voices from within the government were critical of these protests,
reminding the public that such emergency measures were taken out of urgency
rather than convenience, and that if they are not routinely implemented then the
whole government and economic system is subject to collapse. While the
government’s concerns are warranted, the public rightly has no confidence in
their political elite, who have once again shown, via their proposed budget,
that they are unwilling to reform.
The Hariri government plans to cut down the budgets of important institutions
such as Lebanese University, the country’s only public university, while
retaining millions of dollars in funding for stationary and office supplies,
furniture, transportation fees, and even bonuses. It has also proposed a set of
superfluous taxes on smoking water pipes in restaurants, gun permits, and tinted
car windows, reaffirming its economic inaptitude and corruption.
While insisting on burdening underprivileged taxpayers, the political elite
through its government representatives has blocked all attempts to impose taxes
on lucrative sectors of the economy – those that happen to be owned by them or
their clients. On the top of the list is the maritime property tax, which the
state leases out to these tycoons for virtually pocket change: Millions of
dollars of prime beach real-estate for less than a dollar per square meter,
extending up to a duration of 99 years. Likewise and for no justifiable reason,
the government continues to exempt ships exceeding 40 feet from taxation, which
includes their luxurious yachts docked in Lebanon’s marinas.
Adding insult to injury, the Hariri government has failed to agree on a final
draft to send to parliament, mainly due to the insistence of Foreign Minister
Gebran Bassil, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law, who wants to use the budget
to lay the groundwork for his bid to become Lebanon’s next president.
Certainly, one of the main obstacles to economic recovery is government
corruption. But the real elephant in the room is Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy militia
with seats in Lebanese parliament, which Hariri and the rest of the Lebanese are
refusing to openly confront. Iran’s total hijacking of Lebanon’s sovereignty has
earned Lebanon political and, perhaps more importantly, economic isolation from
its Arab brethren. In the past, they have provided Lebanon’s economy with a
safety net, but will surely refrain this time around.
The different groups that have fallen victim to the Hariri government’s measures
lack the ability to turn their divided calls into one simple and effective
ultimatum, and declare these so-called rulers as illegitimate. If veterans,
public sector workers, university professors, and the rest of the
disenfranchised remain disunited, the ruling elite will simply brush them aside,
and dissence against the Hariri government will be doomed. The protesters seem
to have forgotten that they are getting what they voted for in the last
election, and that reform comes not from politicians but from statesmen, which
Lebanon critically lacks.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of
History. He is the author of A Campus at War: Student Politics at the American
University of Beirut, 1967-1975. He tweets @makramrabah.
Paris-Based Lebanese Journalist Maya Khadra: French Politicians Adopt Islamist
Rhetoric To Win Favors Of Muslim Majority In Parisian Suburbs; Qatar Funds
Muslim Brotherhood In France, Europe
MEMRI/May 26/2019
Paris-based Lebanese journalist Maya Khadra said in a May 12,
2019 interview on Al-Hurra TV (U.S.) thatThat some French politicians have begun
using Islamist rhetoric in order to win favors of the Muslim majority in
Parisian suburbs and have even visited Salafi mosques. She said that there are
unlicensed organizations that operate "in the shadows" and that spread the
ideologies of ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood, and that Qatar has played a major
role in funding Muslim Brotherhood activity in France and Europe. She explained
that the Muslim Brotherhood employs modern and progressive rhetoric and that the
French government turns a blind eye to the fact that this endeavor receives
foreign funding. Khadra added that the Islamists do not recognize the borders or
sovereignty of countries and that they view wherever they are as their own
"state" where shari'a law should be established.
Following are excerpts: Maya Khadra: "Some officials elected in Parisian suburbs
with a Muslim majority – in all the suburbs of Paris there is a Muslim majority
now… [The officials] change their rhetoric, and even employ Islamic rhetoric.
They visit Salafi mosques.
"The fear and the danger come from institutions that operate in the shadows.
They are not licensed and they operate in closed places. Sometimes, they rent a
hall and meet there, and they spread the ISIS ideology in France. We saw this
with all of the mujahideen who left France in order to wage Jihad in Syria and
in Iraq. "Qatar, for example, has played a major role in funding many extremist
groups and in funding many movements of the Muslim Brotherhood in France and
Europe. They always use the same deception. They employ a very progressive and
modern rhetoric in order to disseminate their ideas, which target minorities and
make them feel that they suffer injustice in the Western countries, and that
[the Muslim Brotherhood] offers them a better, progressive world. The methods of
the Muslim Brotherhood are very progressive. This entire operation is funded,
but the French state turns a blind eye.
"Now they regret this, because they allowed France to be swept by a big wave of
extremism. The percentage of women who wear hijab… I'm talking about the niqab,
not the plan hijab… 40% of the women in the suburbs of Paris wear the niqab.
"They do not recognize the borders and the sovereignty of countries. There is
what is called the 'Islamic nation.' They want to 'Islamize' it. The more they
expand in the country they live in… They start by expanding their neighborhood,
their ghetto. Then they reach the capital, and then they expand to other areas…
The more they expand, the more they gain. From their point of view, this is
their own country. There was once a documentary [filmed] in the suburbs of
Paris, and they asked one of the Muslims there: 'The French state assists you
because you do not work, so why are you against it?' He answered: 'What they are
paying me is the jizya [poll tax].' They have a reactionary logic, which does
not respect the sovereignty or the borders of the state. They think that they
are in their own country – wherever they may live – and that the shari'a should
become the law. This is the real danger."
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 26-27/19
Pompeo Defends Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/US President Donald Trump
ignored Congress’ objections and approved the $8 billion arms sales to Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, saying this is a national emergency
because of tensions with Iran. The Trump administration informed congressional
committees that it will go ahead with 22 military sales to the three countries,
infuriating lawmakers by circumventing a long-standing precedent for
congressional review of major weapons sales. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said
the administration had decided to proceed with arms sales and bypass Congress
because any delay could increase risk for US partners at a time of instability
caused by Iran. “These sales will support our allies, enhance Middle East
stability, and help these nations to deter and defend themselves from Iran,” he
said in a statement.He stressed that he is determined to pursue section 36 of
the Arms Export Control Act and directed the Department to complete immediately
the formal notification of 22 pending arms transfers to the three countries. The
equipment includes aircraft support maintenance; intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance (ISR); munitions; and other supplies, revealed the statement. It
warned that delaying the shipment could cause degraded systems and a lack of
necessary parts and maintenance that could create severe airworthiness and
interoperability concerns for key partners during a time of increasing regional
volatility. “These national security concerns have been exacerbated by many
months of Congressional delay in addressing these critical requirements, and
have called into doubt our reliability as a provider of defense capabilities,
opening opportunities for US adversaries to exploit.” Pompeo explained that this
is a “one-time event”, asserting that Section 36 is a long-recognized authority
and has been utilized by at least four previous administrations since 1979,
including Presidents Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. He went on to say that this
specific measure does not alter the long-standing arms transfer review process
with Congress. “I look forward to continuing to work with Congress to develop
prudent measures to advance and protect US national security interests in the
region.”The United States is, and must remain, a reliable security partner to
its allies and partners around the world, noted Pompeo, adding that these
partnerships are a cornerstone of the country’s National Security Strategy,
which this decision reaffirms. For months, members of Congress had been blocking
sales of offensive military equipment to Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to their
concerns over the war in Yemen.
US Suspects 2 Iran Proxies in Baghdad Embassy Attack
Baghdad – Fadhel al-Nasmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Iranian proxies
in Iraq have not claimed responsibility for the attack against the US embassy in
Baghdad a week ago despite Washington’s accusation that Tehran was behind the
incident. A senior security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US suspects
the Sayyed of Martyrs Battalions and Imam Ali Battalions. He revealed that Iraqi
authorities have been informed of these suspicions. Moreover, they informed them
that the US may resort to arresting members of those factions in Iraq should
evidence prove their involvement in the embassy attack. The source explained
that armed groups in Iraq are split between those that oppose Iran and refuse to
have Iraq turn into an arena for the American-Iranian conflict. They include
cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s Peace Brigades. On the other side of the divide lie
factions that enjoy close ties with Tehran, such as the Badr Organization and
Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq. Despite their loyalty to Iran, these groups have yet to
intervene in the ongoing clash between Washington and Tehran. A third camp also
exists. These factions are not represented at parliament and may join the fray
on Iran’s side at any moment, said the source. Commenting on the pro-Iran
groups’ silence amid the mounting American-Iranian tensions, armed groups expert
Hisham al-Hashemi told Asharq Al-Awsat the silence is good for Iraq because it
will not drag it into a war from which it has nothing to gain. On May 19, a
rocket was fired into Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses
government buildings and diplomatic missions, falling near the US Embassy but
causing no casualties, the Iraqi military said. The attack came two weeks after
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iraqi leaders during a surprise visit
to Baghdad that if they failed to keep in check Iran-backed militias, the United
States would respond with force. US President Donald Trump has tightened
economic sanctions against Iran, and his administration says it has built up the
US military presence in the region. It accuses Iran of threats to US troops and
interests.
Zarif: Iran Will Defend Itself against Any Aggression
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad
Zarif stressed Sunday that his country would “strongly” defend itself against
any military or economic aggression. Speaking during a news conference in
Baghdad with his Iraqi counterpart Mohammed al-Hakim, Zarif said his country
wanted to build balanced relations with its Arab Gulf neighbors and that it had
proposed signing a non-aggression pact with them. He also addressed the nuclear
deal signed with world powers in 2015. He called on European states to do more
to preserve the agreement his country signed with them. For his part, Hakim said
that Baghdad is willing to act as an intermediary between Iran and the United
States. He also added that Baghdad does not believe an “economic blockade” is
fruitful, a reference to US sanctions. Zarif had arrived in Iraq on Saturday for
talks with senior officials amid mounting tensions with Washington and following
a decision by the US to deploy 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East. Iraqi
Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi warned of the "danger of a war" during a meeting
with the Iranian official on Saturday night, his office said.
Abdul Mahdi pleaded for the "stability of the region and the upholding of the
nuclear deal.”Iraqi President Barham Salih discussed with Zarif "the need to
prevent all war or escalation," his office said. On Saturday Zarif called the
deployment of extra US troops to the region "very dangerous and a threat to
international peace and security." It follows a US decision in early May to send
an aircraft carrier strike force and B-52 bombers in a show of force against
what Washington's leaders believed was an imminent Iranian plan to attack US
assets. Washington says the latest reinforcements are in response to a
"campaign" of recent attacks including a rocket launched into the Green Zone in
Baghdad, explosive devices that damaged four tankers near the entrance to the
Arabian Gulf and a drone attack by Yemeni Iran-backed Houthi militias on a key
Saudi oil pipeline. The US this month ended the last exemptions it had granted
from sweeping unilateral sanctions it reimposed on Iran after abandoning the
nuclear deal in May last year.
Iraq Warns of 'Danger of War' as Iranian FM Visits
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 26/2019/Iraqi leaders have warned of the risks
of war during a visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose
country is locked in a tense standoff with the United States. Zarif's visit to
neighboring Iraq -- which is caught in the middle of its two allies the U.S. and
Iran -- follows a decision by Washington to deploy 1,500 additional troops to
the Middle East. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi warned of the "danger of
a war" during a meeting with Zarif on Saturday night, his office said. Abdel
Mahdi pleaded for the "stability of the region and the upholding of the nuclear
deal," it said, referring to a 2015 agreement between Tehran and major powers.
Iraqi President Barham Saleh discussed with Zarif "the need to prevent all war
or escalation," his office said.On Saturday Zarif called the deployment of extra
U.S. troops to the region "very dangerous and a threat to international peace
and security." It follows a U.S. decision in early May to send an aircraft
carrier strike force and B-52 bombers in a show of force against what
Washington's leaders believed was an imminent Iranian plan to attack U.S.
assets. Washington says the latest reinforcements are in response to a
"campaign" of recent attacks including a rocket launched into the Green Zone in
Baghdad, explosive devices that damaged four tankers near the entrance to the
Gulf, and drone strikes by Yemeni rebels on a key Saudi oil pipeline.Iran has
denied any involvement. The U.S. this month ended the last exemptions it had
granted from sweeping unilateral sanctions it reimposed on Iran after abandoning
the 2015 nuclear deal in May last year.
Europe Warns US of New ‘Russian Deception’ in Syria
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/The United States
wants to maintain the current contact lines between the three Syrian regions
that are controlled by Russia, the and Turkey. Washington is also “comfortable”
with its agreement with Moscow on the formation of a constitutional committee,
returning to a political solution, and withdrawal of all foreign forces,
especially Iranian ones. But European allies are warning the US of a new
“Russian deception” by giving diplomatic promises and leaving the Russian
Defense Ministry to “militarize” the land. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had
visited Sochi last week, accompanied by Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey.
They informed officials in Moscow that Russia's interests can not be realized
alongside a Syrian regime rejected by its own people and the international
community or with an Iranian force emerging in Syria. The US delegation also
discussed common interests with Russia, a secure and stable Syria that enjoys
normal relations with its neighbors and the world, without the foreign forces
that did not exist there before 2011. Jeffrey had told Congress that Russia
should join efforts to counter Iran's destabilizing activities and its malicious
influence in Syria if it wants to achieve a similar result. The US delegation in
Moscow was keen on a “pragmatic approach" and left with a sense of Russia’s
readiness to achieve US goals in principle, meaning the political process under
UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to agree on a constitutional committee,
holding UN-sponsored elections and encouraging the return of refugees and
displaced persons. The understanding should also lead to a ceasefire in Idlib,
the stabilization of the conflict lines, provision of humanitarian aid,
cessation of the flow of refugees to Turkey and the formation of a UN-led
constitutional committee. Meanwhile, European sources warned against being
optimistic about the deal struck between Washington and Moscow. They cited
previous experiences where the Russians agreed with Americans on certain issues,
which remained unfulfilled because the Russian Defense Ministry holds final sway
over developments on the ground in Syria.
Syrian Regime Steps Up Air Strikes in Northwest
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/The Syrian regime pounded positions in the
northwest of the country on Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said, in the heaviest day of air strikes since launching a major campaign
against the opposition-held territory nearly four weeks ago. The air strikes
along with barrel bombs and artillery shells helped Russian-backed regime forces
capture the small town of Kafr Nabouda in northern Hama province, the third time
it has changed hands in the latest offensive, sources on both sides said.
Government forces first captured Kfar Nabouda on May 8, then lost it on
Wednesday. Air and ground strikes killed 12 people in several areas including
the town of Maarat al-Numan, the Observatory said. The onslaught since late
April, focused mostly on southern parts of Idlib province and adjacent parts of
Hama and Latakia, marks the most intense conflict between Bashar al-Assad and
his enemies since last summer. The bombardment has killed 229 civilians, injured
727 and forced more than 300,000 people to flee since April 28, according to The
Union of Medical Care and Relief organizations (UOSSM), which provides
assistance to health facilities.
Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Observatory, said Syrian regime planes and
helicopters launched more than 280 strikes on Sunday and Russian jets had
carried out 15. Syrian state media said Kafr Nabouda had been taken from
militants led by a group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously called al-Nusra
Front.
Egypt: Accused in Nusra Front Case Sought to Target
Christians
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Egyptian prosecutor in the trial of
16 convicts, held in what is known in the media as the Nusra Front case, said
Saturday the accused established a terrorist organization in an attempt to
disrupt the constitution and laws and prevent state institutions and public
authorities from carrying out their work. “The members also sought to target the
police and shed Egyptian Christians’ blood by recruiting elements and training
them on using firearms to target public and private facilities,” the prosecutor
said, noting that terrorism was one of the means used by the organization to
achieve its purposes. The Supreme State Security Prosecution (SSSP) ordered that
the defendants be referred to the Supreme Emergency State Security Court (SESSC),
which adjourned the case to June 8. “From 2011 until 2014, the first accused
assumed the leadership of the organization to damage the national unity and
social peace while the second funded the organization and its members to commit
terrorist crimes,” according to the investigations carried out by the SSSP. The
defendants transferred the members to Syria to join the Nusra Front. Its
affiliated terrorist cells were divided into groups that monitored the targets
to be attacked through terrorist operations and gathered information and
logistic support to provide needed equipment. Investigations further showed that
a group also promoted the organization’s terrorist and takfiri ideology in order
to attract more new recruits. A number of organizational headquarters were also
unveiled during investigations. They were used as training camps or arms and
explosives warehouses. Elements also used desert areas as hideouts. Separately,
the Cairo Criminal Court adjourned to June 9 the retrial of five defendants in
the case of the al-Warraq terrorist cell. They are accused of targeting police
officers and public institutions and killing two people, including police
secretary Amr Ezzat. The Public Prosecution has charged the accused with
possessing firearms and provocative leaflets, killing civilians and policemen
and joining a terrorist group.
Fatah Stresses its Rejection of ‘Deal of the Century’ Even
If Under Threat
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Threatening, intimidating,
cutting off funds and practicing extortion against the Palestinian leadership
and its people will not change their position towards the so-called “Deal of the
Century” and its economic workshop in Bahrain, the Fatah movement announced on
Saturday. “Whoever advised the US administration that exerting more pressure and
practicing political extortion against President Mahmoud Abbas will let him
change his position, is absolutely wrong,” the movement’s spokesman Osama al-Qawasmi
stressed. “They were also wrong when they thought that suffocating and extorting
Palestine’s financial institutions and people and then offering them money can
lead to concessions on our fixed national rights,” he added. “It seems that this
person didn’t read history, doesn’t understand the nature of the conflict and
doesn’t know the Palestinian people, Fatah movement and the President (Abbas),”
he further noted. “This ploy is obvious and will not pass,” he said. Qawasmi
also pointed out that the Palestinians will not trade a single grain of sand
from Jerusalem for all the money and treasure in the world. Political efforts
based on international legitimacy are the only way to achieve peace and
stability in the region and the world, he explained. Fatah’s position came in
light of pressure exerted on Abbas to participate in the two-day economic
workshop. Dubbed the “Peace to Prosperity” workshop, the gathering will take
place on June 25-26 in Manama, during which the administration of US President
Donald Trump will unveil the first part of its Palestinian-Israeli peace
proposal, dubbed the “Deal of the Century”. The workshop is expected to be
attended by finance ministers of concerned countries and business executives
from Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Washington aims to encourage Arab donor
countries to invest in the West Bank and Gaza Strip before addressing thorny
political issues. But Palestinians rejected this attempt and said the economic
solution should come as a result of the political one and not the other way
round. “It is difficult to understand why the Palestinian Authority would reject
a workshop designed to discuss a vision with the potential to radically
transform lives and put people on a path toward a brighter future,” said US
Peace Envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt.
Israel Eases Fishing Restrictions in Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Israel eased on Sunday fishing restrictions
it has imposed in the Gaza Strip in order to prevent a deterioration in
humanitarian conditions in the Palestinian enclave. COGAT, the defense ministry
unit that oversees such regulations, said the fishing zone was being "expanded
to 15 nautical miles," back up from 10. "This measure is part of the civilian
policy for prevention of deterioration in humanitarian conditions in the Gaza
Strip and is consistent with the policy of distinguishing between terrorists and
the unimplicated population," COGAT said in a statement. It restores the fishing
zone to the limits set in April ahead of Israel's general election, and is the
largest allowed in years. The move came just three days after Israel had reduced
the offshore fishing limits in response to Palestinians floating balloons fitted
with incendiaries over the border. Palestinians in Gaza have frequently floated
balloons fitted with firebombs over the border to damage Israeli property and
have succeeded in setting fire to large areas of farmland. The additional
nautical miles are important to Gaza fishermen as they bring more valuable,
deeper water species within reach. Around 80 percent of Palestinians in
impoverished Gaza are reliant on international aid, according to the United
Nations. Israel and Palestinian factions in Gaza have fought three wars since
Hamas assumed power over the enclave more than a decade ago. Four Israeli
civilians and 25 Palestinians, including at least nine fighters, were killed in
an escalation earlier this month. According to reports, a May 6 ceasefire
included Israel taking steps to ease its blockade on Gaza, while Hamas in return
would calm border protests.
Gaza Suffers Worst Medicine Shortage with Deficit at 52%
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat /Sunday, 26 May, 2019/The Palestinian Ministry of
Health in Gaza Strip warned of the dangerous consequences on Gaza Strip patients
due to a severe medicines shortage. The ministry said that the deficit in
medicine and medical supplies exceeded 52 percent. Director of Al-Shifa
Hospital, the biggest public hospital in Gaza, Medhat Abbas said the facility
has run out of several vital medicines and antibiotics. Most of the medical
items are unavailable in public and private pharmacies, he revealed, warning
that the shortage threatens the lives of patients. He called on all supporters
of the health sector to intervene to save Gaza patients.Health facilities in the
coastal enclave had not received medicine shipments since the beginning of the
year. Earlier this year, the Health Ministry said 45 percent of the essential
medicines had run out in Gaza. The ministry had in early May sent a medicine
convoy from Ramallah to Gaza. Minister of Health Mai al-Kaila stated that Gaza
is in the thoughts of every Palestinian, saying that the 15-truck convoy was
dispatched at the orders of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh. The convoy included medicine to
treat cancer, Haemophilia, diabetes and skin diseases. It included sedatives and
antibiotics, dialysis treatment and material needed to perform various
surgeries.
As Deadline Looms, Netanyahu Says Coalition Deal Still
Possible
Asharq Al-Awsat /Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said Sunday it was still possible to strike a deal to form a new coalition
government ahead of a Wednesday deadline. Netanyahu has been unable to reach a
deal with potential coalition partners despite results from April 9 elections
giving his Likud party and its right-wing and religious allies a majority in
parliament. Speculation has mounted over the possibility of fresh elections,
reported AFP. Negotiations have broken down over legislation aimed at seeing
ultra-Orthodox Jews perform mandatory military service like other Jewish
Israelis. "I think that the problem can be solved with good will, if that's what
people want," Netanyahu said at the start of a cabinet meeting. "If there's not
a desire, and things are being aimed in a certain direction, it's unfortunate. I
don't think the country needs to be dragged to another election, but there might
be someone who wants that." Avigdor Lieberman, who is likely to become defense
minister under a coalition deal, has pushed for a guarantee that a bill he backs
on ultra-Orthodox military conscription be passed. The ultra-Orthodox parties
have refused to support it. Netanyahu needs both Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu
party and the ultra-Orthodox to form the coalition he is seeking. Likud and its
allies hold 65 seats in the 120-seat parliament, including Yisrael Beitenu's
five and the ultra-Orthodox parties' 16. A Likud spokesman said Sunday that "if
Lieberman continues to insist on taking down the government, the Likud has begun
preparations ahead of elections." But he added: "At this stage there has been no
decision on dissolving the Knesset (parliament)."Thousands also protested on
Saturday night against Netanyahu's reported attempts to seek immunity from
prosecution as part of coalition negotiations. Netanyahu faces potential
indictment for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in the months ahead.
Czech Republic Will Not Relocate its Embassy to Jerusalem
Ramallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis
said that his country will not relocate its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,
saying that his government respects the European Union stance and United Nations
resolutions on this issue. No country in Europe wants to move its embassy at the
moment and the Czech Republic will not be the initiator, he continued. The PM
affirmed that Israel is a longstanding ally to the Czech Republic, but it is
also an EU member and UN agreements in this regard should be respected.
Last year, Czech President Milos Zeman inaugurated the Czech House in Jerusalem
in what was interpreted as a precursor to the relocation of its embassy. The
United States had moved its embassy to Jerusalem in May 2018 despite widespread
condemnation by Palestinians, Arabs and the international community. Guatemala
then followed. Honduras and Romania had revealed that they were considering such
a move. The Fatah movement welcomed Prague’s refusal to relocate its embassy in
spite of American and Israeli pressure.Fatah spokesman Jamal Nazzal said that
countries’ ability to withstand such pressure and commit to international law
reinforces the Palestinian leadership’s insistence on its rights.
Turkey: Kurdish Leader Urges Jailed Supporters to End
Hunger Strike
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan
called on Sunday thousands of jailed supporters in Turkey to end their hunger
strike, which they had started in protest against his detention conditions.
Ocalan, the co-founder of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) held on
Imrali island off Istanbul since 1999, was allowed to see his lawyers this month
for the first time in eight years. "I expect the action to come to an end in
light of the broad statements to be made by my two lawyers," Ocalan said in a
message read by his lawyer Nevroz Uysal during a press conference in Istanbul.
The first visit took place on May 2. After Turkish authorities lifted an
official ban on lawyers' visits to Ocalan, a second trip by two of his lawyers
was made on May 22.His lawyers said during their visit on May 22, Ocalan said
the hunger strikes "had achieved their goal" and was insistent in his call for
the action to end. Several imprisoned supporters ended their hunger strike soon
after his call. Some 3,000 prisoners across different prisons were on hunger
strike, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has said, in solidarity
with one of the party's lawmakers who launched the action in November. MP Leyla
Guven was in custody when she went on hunger strike to protest Ocalan's
isolation from his family and lawyers but she was later released. Other
detainees then followed suit. Eight people also killed themselves over the
issue, according to the HDP. Ocalan's PKK, blacklisted by Ankara and its Western
allies as a terror group, has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish
state since 1984 during which more than 40,000 people have been killed. Ocalan
was caught in February 1999 in Kenya and jailed several months later after he
was found guilty of treason, separatism and murder.
Casualties in W. Libya Militias Clash over ‘Turkish Spoils’
Cairo – Jamal Jawhar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/A bloody clash erupted
between pro-Government of National Accord (GNA) militias in western Libya in
recent days over a Turkish armored vehicles deal. The vehicles were set to be
given the GNA’s Presidential Council that is chaired by Fayez al-Sarraj. Clashes
erupted in the western city of Zawiya late on Friday in wake of the death of
Firas al-Mukhtar Sharkas, the commander of a militia that is affiliated with the
GNA’s Interior Ministry. His cousin was also killed in a clash with another
militia over a Turkish weapons shipment. The shipment had arrived in the
capital, Tripoli, on May 18. The arms were sent to the GNA militias as they are
confronted with an operation by the Libyan National Army (LNA) operation to
liberate Tripoli from armed groups. The GNA had acknowledged the Turkish
shipment of weapons and armored vehicles, prompting fierce criticism from the
LNA and warnings that the delivery violates an arms embargo imposed by the
United Nations Security Council against Libya. The militia fighting broke out
Friday night after Sharkas seized one of the new Turkish vehicles, sparking a
clash with rival militants, said witnesses. The fighting culminated in his death
and the death of his cousin. Security commander Mohammed Abdul Salam al-Maseeni
told Asharq Al-Awsat that the militias in western Libya have always clashed with
each other. Sarraj’s Special Deterrent Force intervened to end the Zawiya
fighting. It arrested two gunmen suspected of killing Sharkas and his cousin. An
investigation will be opened in the incident. Throughout 2018, hundreds of
militants were killed in Tripoli and its suburbs in clashes between rival
militias over financial and logistic gains.
Haftar Vows to Continue Tripoli Operation until Militias Disarm
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/Libyan National Army commander Khalifa
Haftar vowed that his forces will continue their operation in Tripoli until
armed groups lay down their weapons. Political negotiations cannot be resumed as
long as the gunmen hold on to their arms, he told France’s Le Journal du
Dimanche. He explained that he had commanded his troops to march on the capital
after six rounds of negotiations ended in failure. Head of the Government of
National Accord (GNA), Fayez al-Sarraj, he added, is incapable of making
decisions because he is controlled by the gunmen. “During the last round of
talks, I realized that it was not him who was taking decisions,” Haftar
remarked. “The political solution remains the main goal, but returning to
politics must be preceded with the elimination of gunmen once and for all,” he
stressed.
UN Chief to Hadi: Yemen Envoy to Redouble Efforts in a
Balanced Manner
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 May, 2019/UN Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres reiterated his “full confidence” in UN envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths
after the envoy was accused by Yemen President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi of
committing violations that threaten the political solution. Griffiths has not
commented on Hadi’s letter, which he had delivered to the UN chief. “In his
letter to President Hadi the secretary-general says that the United Nations
commitment to the Stockholm agreement stems first and foremost from our deep
desire to alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people and assist in addressing
the humanitarian crisis which continues to beset Yemen,” said Guterres’
spokesman Stephane Dujarric. “He assured President Hadi that his special envoy,
Griffiths, will redouble efforts to support the parties on delivering on the
commitment made in Stockholm and do so in a manner which is balanced and fully
supportive of achieving a peaceful and lasting political solution to this
conflict,” he added. In his letter, Hadi said: “We can no longer accept the
ongoing violations committed by the UN envoy.” He made his stance after a
briefing by Griffiths to the UN Security Council on May 15, which the president
deemed as an example of the flagrant violation of the mandate granted to the
envoy. “Griffiths insists on dealing with Houthi (militias) as a de-facto
government, and as an equivalent to the legitimate government,” he added,
accusing the envoy of legitimizing the Iran-backed militants. He also accused
Griffiths of sidestepping Security Council Resolution 2216. The letter stated
that Griffiths has failed to properly oversee the Stockholm agreement struck
last year for a ceasefire and withdrawal plan for the port city of Hodeidah, and
has not dealt with issues surrounding detainees and hostages. “It is clear the
envoy has a weak understanding of the nature of Yemen’s ongoing conflict,
especially the ideological, intellectual, and political elements of the Houthi
militias and their fundamental rejection of the principles of democracy and the
peaceful rotation of power,” it added.
Venezuela's Guaido Says Will Send Representatives for Talks
with Govt.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 26/2019/Venezuela's opposition leader Juan
Guaido said on Saturday he would send delegates to Oslo next week for the first
face-to-face meeting with representatives of President Nicolas Maduro's
government as part of a Norway-led mediation effort.
They "will talk with both the Norwegian government and with representatives of
the regime", Guaido said in a statement, after the two Venezuelan sides traveled
separately to the Norwegian capital last week without meeting. Guaido,
recognized by the United States and dozens of other countries as Venezuela's
interim president, said the opposition delegation will be headed by deputy
parliament speaker Stalin Gonzalez and the ex-deputy Gerardo Blyde, both of whom
were involved in the initial talks with the Norwegians. Media reports said
Venezuelan Communications Minister Jorge Rodriguez and the governor of Miranda
province Hector Rodriguez represented Maduro's government in the initial talks,
but it was unclear if they would participate in next week's meeting. Guaido has
appeared cautious about talking with Maduro's representatives since the idea is
unpopular with the opposition base that has spent months in the streets trying
to push Maduro out. Earlier on Saturday, Guaido told supporters in Carora, Lara
state that "nobody is ever going to get us here confused about a false
dialogue." He said there had been no "negotiation" in the earlier meetings in
Norway, and that any deal should include mediation leading to Maduro's departure
and new elections being scheduled.
"We are going to insist," he said, "because today by combining all our
strategies, using all the tools we have, we are going to get to that final
step," Guaido said, referring to street protests and multiple levels of
diplomacy. The bid for talks comes after a months-long power struggle between
National Assembly leader Guaido and the socialist president, with sometimes
deadly street clashes. Guaido's backers dismiss Maduro's presidency as
"illegitimate" following his re-election last year in polls widely labeled as
rigged. Maduro has been shunned by much of the international community for
presiding over the country's economic collapse, which has led to shortages of
basic goods -- forcing millions to flee -- as well as brutally suppressing
dissent. He retains the backing of major creditors Russia, China and Cuba, as
well as the powerful military. Guaido tried to incite a military uprising
against Maduro on April 30 but only about 30 members of the armed forces joined
him. The socialist regime has since ramped up pressure on Guaido's allies and
supporters, charging 10 lawmakers with treason. The pro-government Constituent
Assembly recently stripped 14 opposition lawmakers of their legislative immunity
over their support for the failed uprising.
Final Votes Cast as Europe Chooses Future Course
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 26/2019/Tens of millions of Europeans will
vote Sunday as 21 countries choose their representatives in a battle between the
nationalist right and pro-EU forces to chart a course for the bloc. Greece,
Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania and Cyprus were the first to open their
polling stations at 0400 GMT and France, Germany, Italy and the rest followed
over the next two or three hours. Seven EU member states had already voted, but
no official results can be published until rest of the union has taken part. The
European Parliament will give an estimate at 1815 GMT and provisional results
will begin to emerge from 2100 GMT. Euroskeptic parties opposed to the project
of ever closer union hope to capture as many as a third of the seats in the
751-member Strasbourg assembly, disrupting the pro-integration consensus. The
far-right parties of Italian deputy PM Matteo Salvini and France's Marine Le Pen
will lead this charge, and anti-EU ranks will be swelled by the Brexit Party of
British populist Nigel Farage. France's President Emmanuel Macron has taken it
upon himself to act as figurehead for the centrist and liberal parties hoping to
shut the nationalists out of key EU jobs and decision-making. "Once again Macron
is daring us to challenge him. Well let's take him at his word: On May 26, we'll
challenge him in the voting booth," Le Pen told a rally in France on Friday.
'Extremists are mobilizing'
Meanwhile, the mainstream parties are vying between themselves for influence
over the choice of a new generation of top European officials, including the
powerful president of the European Commission. And Brussels insiders are closely
following the turnout figures, fearing that another drop in participation will
undermine the credibility of the EU parliament as it seeks to establish its
authority. Britain and the Netherlands were first to vote, on Thursday, followed
by Ireland and the Czech Republic on Friday with Slovakia, Malta and Latvia on
Saturday, leaving the bulk of the 400 million eligible voters to join in on
Sunday. At the last EU election in 2014, Slovakia had the lowest turnout of any
country, at less than 14 percent, and centrist president Andrej Kiska is worried
that the far-right is poised to profit. "We see that extremists are mobilizing,
we see a lot their billboards and activities all over Slovakia. We can't let
someone steal Europe from us. It's our Europe," Kiska told reporters. But the
right and the far-right have not had everything their own way so far. In the
Netherlands, the centre-left party of EU vice president Frans Timmermans won the
most votes and added two seats to the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) bloc in
parliament, according to exit polls. A day later, the S&D's centre-right rival
the European People's Party (EPP) was buoyed by exit polls suggesting that Prime
Minister Leo Varadkar's pro-EU Fine Gael party was in the lead in Ireland.
Jobs fair
If Britain leaves the European Union on October 31, the latest deadline for
Brexit, then its MEPs will not sit for long in the EU parliament but could still
play a role in the scramble to hand out top jobs. Thursday's votes from Britain
won't be counted until after polls close in Italy, but Farage's Brexit Party
appears on course to send a large delegation to a parliament it wants to
abolish. Macron is pinning his hopes on his Renaissance movement joining with
the liberal ALDE voting bloc and other centrist groups to give impetus to his
plans for deeper EU integration. But much will depend on who gets the top jobs:
the presidencies of the Council and the Commission, the speaker of parliament,
the high representative for foreign policy and director of the European Central
Bank. The 29 EU leaders have been invited to a summit dinner on Tuesday to
decide how to choose the nominees, and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel is
expected to back the lead EPP candidate Manfred Weber for the Commission. Macron
and some other leaders oppose both Weber, a German conservative MEP with no
executive experience, and the idea that the parliament should get to choose one
of its own for Brussels' prime post. But whichever way the leaders' council
leans, there will be no immediate decision. Instead, Council president Donald
Tusk will take note of how the debate went and draft the nominations before a
June 21 EU summit.
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on May 26-27/19
Genocide of Christians Reaches "Alarming Stage"
ريموند إبراهيم/معهد كيتستون: الإبادة الجماعية للمسيحيين تصل ‘إلى مرحلة مقلقة
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/May 26/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75215/%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%88%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A5%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%8A%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87%D8%AF-%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14281/genocide-of-christians
Many of the world's most persecuted Christians have nothing whatsoever to do
with colonialism or missionaries. Those most faced with the threat of genocide —
including Syria's and Iraq's Assyrians or Egypt's Copts — were Christian several
centuries before the ancestors of Europe's colonizers became Christian and went
missionizing
The BBC report highlights "political correctness" as being especially
responsible for the West's indifference....
Among the worst persecutors are those that rule according to Islamic law, or
Sharia -- which academics such as Georgetown University's John Esposito insist
is equitable and just. In Afghanistan (ranked #2), "Christianity is not
permitted to exist."
"Christian persecution 'at near genocide levels,'" the title of a May 3 BBC
report, cites a lengthy interim study ordered by British Foreign Secretary
Jeremy Hunt and led by Rev. Philip Mounstephen, the Bishop of Truro.
According to the BBC report, one in three people around the world suffer from
religious persecution, with Christians being "the most persecuted religious
group". "Religion 'is at risk of disappearing' in some parts of the world," it
noted, and "In some regions, the level and nature of persecution is arguably
coming close to meeting the international definition of genocide, according to
that adopted by the UN."
British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is also quoted on why Western governments
have been "asleep" — his word — concerning this growing epidemic:
"I think there is a misplaced worry that it is somehow colonialist to talk about
a religion [Christianity] that was associated with colonial powers rather than
the countries that we marched into as colonisers. That has perhaps created an
awkwardness in talking about this issue—the role of missionaries was always a
controversial one and that has, I think, also led some people to shy away from
this topic."
Whatever the merits of such thinking, the fact is that many of the world's most
persecuted Christians have nothing whatsoever to do with colonialism or
missionaries. Those most faced with the threat of genocide — including Syria's
and Iraq's Assyrians or Egypt's Copts — were Christian several centuries before
the ancestors of Europe's colonizers became Christian and went missionizing.
The BBC report highlights "political correctness" as being especially
responsible for the West's indifference, and quotes Hunt again in this regard:
"What we have forgotten in that atmosphere of political correctness is actually
the Christians that are being persecuted are some of the poorest people on the
planet."
Although the BBC report has an entire heading titled and devoted to the impact
of "political correctness," ironically, it too succumbs to this contemporary
Western malady. For while it did a fair job in highlighting the problem, it said
nothing about its causes — not one word about who is persecuting Christians, or
why.
The overwhelming majority of Christian persecution, however, evidently occurs in
Muslim majority nations. According to Open Doors' World Watch List 2019 [WWL],
which surveys the 50 nations where Christians are most persecuted, "Islamic
oppression continues to impact millions of Christians." In seven of the absolute
worst ten nations, "Islamic oppression" is the cause of persecution. "This
means, for millions of Christians—particularly those who grew up Muslim or were
born into Muslim families—openly following Jesus can have painful consequences,"
including death.
Among the worst persecutors are those that rule according to Islamic law, or
Sharia -- which academics such as Georgetown University's John Esposito insist
is equitable and just. In Afghanistan (ranked #2) , "Christianity is not
permitted to exist," says the WWL 2019, because it "is an Islamic state by
constitution, which means government officials, ethnic group leaders, religious
officials and citizens are hostile toward" Christians. Similarly, in Somalia,
(#3), "The Christian community is small and under constant threat of attack.
Sharia law and Islam are enshrined in the country's constitution, and the
persecution of Christians almost always involves violence." In Iran (#9),
"society is governed by Islamic law, which means the rights and professional
possibilities for Christians are heavily restricted."
Equally telling is that 38 of the 50 nations making the WWL 2019 are Muslim
majority.
Perhaps the BBC succumbed to silence concerning the sources of Christian
persecution — that is, succumbed to "the atmosphere of political correctness"
which it ironically highlighted — because in its own report, it did not rely on
the WWL. The problem with this interpretation is that the study the BBC did rely
on, the Bishop of Truro's, is saturated with talk concerning the actual sources
of Christian persecution. In this regard, the words "Islam" and "Islamist"
appear 61 times; "Muslim" appears 56 times in this review on persecuted
Christians.
Here are a few of the more significant quotes from the Bishop of Truro's report:
"The persecution of Christians is perhaps at its most virulent in the region of
the birthplace of Christianity—the Middle East & North Africa."
"In countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia the
situation of Christians and other minorities has reached an alarming stage."
"The eradication of Christians and other minorities on pain of 'the sword' or
other violent means was revealed to be the specific and stated objective of
[Islamic] extremist groups in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, north-east Nigeria and the
Philippines."
"[T]here is mass violence which regularly expresses itself through the bombing
of churches, as has been the case in countries such as Egypt, Pakistan, and
Indonesia."
"The single-greatest threat to Christians [in Nigeria] ... came from Islamist
militant group Boko Haram, with US intelligence reports in 2015 suggesting that
200,000 Christians were at risk of being killed... Those worst affected included
Christian women and girls 'abducted, and forced to convert, enter forced
marriages, sexual abuse and torture.'"
"An intent to erase all evidence of the Christian presence [in Syria, Iraq,
Egypt, north-east Nigeria and the Philippines] was made plain by the removal of
crosses, the destruction of Church buildings and other Church symbols. The
killing and abduction of clergy represented a direct attack on the Church's
structure and leadership."
"Christianity now faces the possibility of being wiped-out in parts of the
Middle East where its roots go back furthest. In Palestine, Christian numbers
are below 1.5 percent; in Syria the Christian population has declined from 1.7
million in 2011 to below 450,000 and in Iraq, Christian numbers have slumped
from 1.5 million before 2003 to below 120,000 today. Christianity is at risk of
disappearing, representing a massive setback for plurality in the region."
The BBC should be commended for (finally) reporting on this urgent issue — even
if it is three years behind the times. As the Truro report correctly observes,
"In 2016 various political bodies including the UK parliament, the European
Parliament and the US House of Representatives, declared that ISIS atrocities
against Christians and other religious minority groups such as Yazidis and Shi'a
Muslims met the tests of genocide."
At the very least, it appears that the BBC has stopped trying to minimize the
specter of Christian persecution as it did in 2013, when this situation was just
starting to reach the boiling point.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries
of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the
Gatestone Institute and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Analysis/Trump's Peace Plan Offers Palestinians a Severance Package for the
Occupation
زفي برئيل/هآرتس: خطة ترامب للسلام تعرض على الفلسطينيين رزمة تعويض للإحتلال
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/26.05.2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75219/%D8%B2%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B3-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A8-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%B6-%D8%B9/
A political solution in which Israel releases its hold of the Palestinian
economy could triple growth in the West Bank and Gaza. But in the meantime, why
not take the billions Washington plans to raise in Bahrain?
Participants of the Bahrain “economic workshop” will surely regret that U.S.
President Donald Trump was so quick to announce it. Truthfully, what’s so urgent
about it? And had he waited another three years, the guests could at least have
enjoyed a wonderful stay at the Shangri-La Hotel, which is slated to open in
2022. According to the Bahraini government, this will be a wonderful vacation
site by the sea, with luxury villas and the kind of service only Shangri-La
knows how to provide.
But the Four Seasons Hotel in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, is luxurious enough.
There are plenty of other luxury hotels there as well. And after all, it’s only
for two days. Granted, the workshop’s organizers don’t yet know how many rooms
to reserve, since the guest list hasn’t been finalized. But there will
presumably be plenty of available rooms for last-minute attendees.
The Palestinians have already said they won’t come. The Qataris probably won’t
either. Turkey – whose president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, vehemently criticized
the idea – apparently won’t be invited. King Abdullah of Jordan will likely to
come just to please Trump and Saudi Arabia, but he’d be happier spending those
two days elsewhere.
Bahrain, the host, made its own position clear when Foreign Minister Khalid Al
Khalifa said this week that the workshop “serves no other purpose” than
supporting the Palestinian economy. There will be no diplomatic plan, no
discussion of borders or other core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Bahrain “remains supportive” of the Palestinians “in restoring their legitimate
rights on their land as well as establishing an independent state with East
Jerusalem as its capital,” the statement added. An independent state? Trump has
no intention of even mentioning the words “Palestinian state.”
discussion now is about the economy, development, investments and governmental
and administrative reforms of the Palestinian Authority, according to American
media reports. Who will invest? How much will they invest? What will the purpose
of the investments be? That’s what the workshop is for.
In February, the New York Times reported that the goal is to raise $40 billion,
which would be divided among the PA, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. This week, media
reports bumped the total up to $68 billion over 10 years. That comes to almost
$7 billion a year for those four countries combined.
To put this in proportion, Qatar alone recently pledged $500 million a year just
for the Gaza Strip, with no connection to Trump’s “deal of the century,” in
order to deescalate the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The PA is getting $20
million a month from Saudi Arabia, and Sudan has received a pledge of $3 billion
from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, of which $320 million was
transferred this month. Rehabilitating Gaza alone is expected to cost several
billion dollars.
Will Trump and Israel agree to let some of the donated funds go to Hamas, or
will the money be only for the PA? And if so, will America unfreeze its own $300
million in aid to the West Bank? Will Israel return the money it deducted from
the taxes it collects on the PA’s behalf? Or will Washington and Jerusalem
continue their sanctions, but at the same time demand that other countries open
their wallets?
Israel will likely refuse to restore the deducted funds unless the PA stops
paying salaries to jailed terrorists and the families of slain terrorists. The
entire “deal” could well collapse over this issue alone.
For the Palestinians, there’s a much more important issue. If it accepts
donations that aren’t accompanied by a credible pledge of a diplomatic solution,
it will be deemed to have “sold” the Palestinian problem, betrayed the refugees
and even abandoned the dream of a Palestinian state in exchange for a few
billion dollars a year.
Palestinian economists says an independent Palestine that could sell its goods
in Arab countries and use Israeli ports to sell them in Western countries, all
with no restrictions, would produce many more billions than the PA would receive
through this deal.
According to a World Bank study, the PA’s growth could triple if the many
Israeli barriers to free Palestinian trade were removed – checkpoints that make
transporting goods more time-consuming and expensive, massive bureaucracy that
requires dozens of forms and permits, the severance of trade between Gaza and
the West Bank, import restrictions, limited numbers of Palestinian workers in
Israel, and the PA’s complete economic dependence on Israel in general.
Alongside these problems, the study also cited the PA’s poor management and
corruption.
Will Trump’s economic plan remove all or at least most of these obstacles? We’ll
have to wait and see. But if Israel’s total control over the Palestinian economy
continues, the donations raised at the Bahrain conference, if there are any,
will mainly serve to finance ongoing activities and pay debts. That’s
non-trivial, but it’s no substitute for the need to build an independent
Palestinian economy.
Granted, Arab states have pledged to give the PA $100 million a month to cover
the shortfall in its budget caused by Israel’s deductions from the tax transfers
and the PA’s refusal to accept anything less than the full amount. Nevertheless,
this pledge so far remains on paper only. Thus it’s reasonable to suspect that
the billions pledged in Bahrain also won’t reach Palestinian banks as quickly as
needed.
Another source of money could be the European Union. But there’s a difference
between ongoing aid from Brussels, which totaled 359 million euros in 2017 and
42 million more than that in 2018, and an investment of billions to grow the
Palestinian economy. The EU won’t rush to open its wallet for a dubious plan
that doesn’t propose establishing a Palestinian state – not just because it
doesn’t even included a detailed economic plan, but mainly because the person
proposing it is Trump.
Trump embroiled the EU in a mess when he withdrew from the Iranian nuclear
agreement more than a year ago and is now trying to get it to join sanctions on
Iran. So he can’t expect to find an attentive ear and an open hand in Brussels
on the Palestinian issue. The EU is sticking to the two-state solution, and at
best, it will consider joining Trump’s economic plan only if it explicitly
defines the final goal as a Palestinian state.
“Without an Israeli commitment to consent to the establishment of a Palestinian
state and an American guarantee that Israel will uphold this commitment, the EU
will continue supporting the Palestinian Authority to its current extent, but
not beyond that,” a European diplomat told Haaretz this week. “And more
generally, why doesn’t the U.S. itself participate in financing the project it
dreamed up?”
If his comment reflects the EU’s position, there’s no need to hold your breath
for the results of the Bahrain conference. Any economic decision made there will
be subject to Israel’s willingness to adopt a viable diplomatic program, or at
least to relax its control over the PA. This willingness will depend on the
composition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government and the
political pressure he is subjected to in the month until the conference, and of
course afterward.
The conference appears to have been born in the fifth month of a two-year
pregnancy. There has been no real preparation and no strategy that would lead to
a diplomatic solution, despite the thousands of emails exchanged by Trump’s
advisors with Arab and Israeli leaders.
Given all this, it’s reasonable to wonder what the Palestinians gain by refusing
to attend it or rejecting any fruits it produces. Palestinian businessmen’s
claim that the conference will perpetuate the occupation and play into Israel’s
hands isn’t baseless. But the Palestinian position – that the Palestinians’
right to establish an independent state must be recognized before talking about
its economic sustenance – may well imprison it in a trap in which it has neither
a state nor a functioning economy.
Assuming that right-wing governments continue controlling Israel in the coming
years and that Trump is reelected in another 18 months, the dream of
establishing an independent Palestinian state will remain a dream. And if a
miracle happens and reconciliation between the Hamas and Fatah parties becomes
reality, the chances of establishing an independent state will decrease even
further, since Hamas objects to recognizing Israel.
In the meantime, the PA could benefit from several billion dollars a year to
build an economic infrastructure that would improve its standard of living and
be ready in case a state did emerge. True, the occupation won’t end, the
settlements won’t be demolished and the arrests, house demolitions and land
theft won’t stop. But for five million Palestinians living under occupation,
life might be a little better.
It’s worth reminding the Palestinians that even Israel decided to accept
reparations from Germany, despite the issues of principle and the moral
dilemmas. And that money helped it greatly in building up its state.
A Swiss diplomat & Iraq’s President – go-betweens for
first, US-Iranian talks
Debka File/May 26/2019
The two back-channels through which the Trump team sought to initiate
exploratory talks with Tehran have run into a blank wall, DEBKAfile’s exclusive
sources report. Interpreting this silent treatment as an Iranian ploy for time
to prepare more attacks, the administration last week boosted its military
deployment in the Gulf with another 1,500 troops.
Plenty of politicians are volunteering to mediate efforts to bring the US and
Iran together, notably, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi and Omani Foreign
Minister Yusuf bin Alawi – who is an old hand as this. The Trump administration
has not taken up any of their offers. Instead, our intelligence sources reveal,
White House advisers have turned to a senior Swiss diplomat and the Kurdish
president of Iraq. Arnold Henninger, a high-ranking member of the Swiss foreign
service, has long being involved in the interaction between the two governments
since the Swiss embassy has represented US interests in Tehran for decades.
Iraq’s president Barham Salih has good contacts in the right circles in both
Washington and Tehran.
On Saturday, May 25, shortly before Salih boarded a flight fo Saudi Arabia and
Turkey, he was confronted by Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif who had popped
over to Baghdad. They held a long conversation.
The main catch in both channels is that no one knows how high in the Islamic
regime the two brokers have reached, and on whose desks the US messages
addressed to the highest echelons have landed.
The Swiss diplomat Henninger has come closest to supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei through Ali Velayati, Khamenei’s senior adviser on international
affairs. But he can’t say whether Velayati passed the Trump administration’s
messages to his boss.
President Salih is known to be in contact with Zarif and talks regularly with
deputy foreign minister Abbas Aragchi. Iranian officials are ambiguous about the
final destination of the messages he relayed, although some admit that Iran’s
President Hassan Rouhani is in the picture. Without con formation that those
messages reached the all-powerful supreme leader or some authoritative
affirmation, the American bid to open initial exploratory talks with Tehran is
up against an immovable obstacle.
The Shia Militia Mapping Project
Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/May 27/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75223/%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%B3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%AB-%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87%D8%AF-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D8%A5%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B1/
Explore a comprehensive interactive map of Shia militias across the Middle East,
charting their location, movements, ties to Iran, and involvements in conflicts
in Iraq and Syria.
Interactive Website Details Dozens of Iranian-Backed Shia Militias
For decades, Shia armed groups have altered the sociopolitical and military
landscape of the Middle East. As of 2019, more than a hundred different Shia
groups and subgroups, the primary drivers of Iranian influence, operate in Iraq,
Lebanon, and Syria. Yet despite the complexity of fronts, the number of
belligerents involved, and Iran’s active participation in these conflicts, most
publicly available maps on the subject have neglected or downplayed the need to
illustrate important data about specific militias. This approach has
fundamentally altered international perceptions of the region’s ongoing wars
and, more important, Iran’s propensity for using proxies.
Shia militia activities are often wrapped in a broader narrative about
“pro-government forces.” Even when these groups take on dominant roles in a
given conflict and pursue goals that differ from those of government forces,
they still tend to be described as little more than supportive elements. This
further disguises crucial regional and ideological developments related to the
militias and their patronage networks.
The Islamic Republic of Iran remains the principal creator and backer of Shia
militias throughout the Middle East. As the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy
noted, “Iran is competing with its neighbors, asserting an arc of influence and
instability while vying for regional hegemony, using state-sponsored terrorist
activities, a growing network of proxies, and its missile program to achieve its
objectives.” The 2019 U.S. Worldwide Threat Assessment added that Iran “probably
wants to maintain a network of Shia foreign fighters” in Syria. Its existing
proxies there, in Iraq, and in Lebanon have contributed to myriad terrorist
activities while maintaining stances that are violently opposed to the United
States and its regional allies. A view into how Iran uses these multinational
networks can help clarify the state’s ideological and political goals in the
region.
At the same time, not every Shia armed group is a proxy of Tehran. Conflicts
between Shia militias over ideological, political, and commercial interests are
plentiful, and tracking these tensions can help expose key vulnerabilities and
trends.
Mapping these militias has become especially important since the Iraqi
government’s 2014 creation of al-Hashd al-Shabi (the Popular Mobilization
Forces), an umbrella group of mostly Shia militias dominated by Iranian-backed
groups. The rise of the PMF has further obfuscated who is actually doing the
fighting on the ground and which areas have a significant militia presence. Some
of the most powerful PMF elements are also fighting in Syria, while many have
established significant political power within the Iraqi government.
Thus, a more comprehensive and detailed mapping method is required. For the
benefit of policymakers, area specialists, and observers, The Washington
Institute’s Shia Militia Mapping Project seeks to rectify the knowledge gap by
providing deep graphical insight into the movements of specific militias, Iran’s
expansion of power abroad, Iraq’s efforts to address instability, the Islamic
State’s return to insurgency, the manner in which Shia armed groups preserve and
increase their power, and the near-term outlook for Syria.
Map Sources
In the past, information of the sort provided by this project has largely been
the purview of the intelligence community and regional organizations rather than
Western audiences. Moreover, some past reports on the subject have used
proprietary sources that lacked cross-referencing with Shia militia sources.
The maps presented here have been compiled mainly from primary source data,
including contacts within Shia militia circles and social media analysis
collected for nearly ten years. More specifically, the project relies on
interviews with a host of Shia fighters, observation of social media accounts
belonging to around 200 formal organizations and unofficial fighter networks,
messenger app accounts linked with Shia militant groups (including private and
publicly available posts), Arabic- and Persian-language news sources, and
reports issued by organizations that oppose Shia militias (e.g., Islamic State).
The Google Maps platform has been used due to its ubiquity.
The project’s methods include seeking out mappable data closest to where social
media and messenger posts claim a given activity occurred. When posts lack
specific place names, the information in question can often be traced to general
locations with reasonable accuracy based on other data or methods. Locations
culled from primary sources have been crosschecked and supplemented by open
source articles from Arabic, English, and Persian newspapers, militia webpages,
direct interviews with fighters, and/or opposition sources. In other cases,
information has been mapped using geolocation methods. Any unconfirmed data is
noted in the map entries.
The information illustrated in the maps includes the following:
Internal fighting between Shia militias
Demonstrations and other events held for or against different militias
Militia operations against foes (e.g., Syrian rebel groups, the Islamic State,
al-Qaeda)
Special foreign trips taken by armed groups or their leadership
Meetings between leadership elements within or among different groups
Casualties suffered by militias
Funerals for fighters
Force deployments
Construction of fortifications and checkpoints
Social service projects
Which Groups Make the List?
Although the project focuses on Shia militias, some of the organizations covered
herein have a more mixed sectarian composition, including Sunni and Christian
fighters. Yet majority Sunni, Christian, and Alawite organizations are not
included, even if they operate under the same structure as a Shia militia group
(though Alawite-majority areas are marked on certain maps). Ethnoreligiously
focused Shia groups are featured as well (e.g., Quwat Sahel al-Ninewa, or the
Nineveh Plains Forces, whose members hail from Iraq’s Shabak minority but
practice Shia Islam). The majority of groups covered are influenced or
controlled by Iran, but not all of them.
Specifically, the project studies the movements and activities of
Iraqi PMF groups (whether official or claimed)
Lebanese Hezbollah
Syrian Shia groups organized on the Hezbollah model
Shia militias that claim alignment with the Syrian army
Muqtada al-Sadr’s groups Saraya al-Salam and Liwa al-Youm al-Mawud
Iraqi and Syrian Shia tribal militias
Groups that identify as part of a larger camp under the control of Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
Newly announced Shia militias
Militias with majority Ismaili (or Sevener Shia) membership, and
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force and its subunits, including
the Pakistani Shia group Liwa Zainabiyoun and the Afghan Shia group Liwa
Fatemiyoun.
Areas of Focus
The main geographic areas covered include current conflict zones in Iraq,
Lebanon, and Syria. If groups or individual fighters from these zones visit
other states, such movements are mapped as well. For example, the maps account
for reports that veterans of Liwa Fatemiyoun, Iran’s Afghan Shia unit in Syria,
have also set up local militias in some neighborhoods of Kabul.
In addition, the project distinguishes between current, former, and potential
conflict zones. All of the conflict zones listed directly involve Shia-majority
militias.
How are Group Activities Represented?
Activities by specific Shia militias are denoted by each organization’s logo or
a surrogate symbol placed on the map. The accompanying description includes an
exact or approximate date for the activity. If photographs of the incident are
available, they are included as well.
Ethnoreligious and Sectarian Mapping
It is important to get an idea of where Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria’s Shia
populations reside and where recruitment occurs. The maps of these locations are
based on multiple sources, including historical maps, U.S. government maps,
Arabic and English reporting, interviews, and personal trips to the region.
Many communities overlap and can be quite diverse. As a result, the maps are
designed to give a general overview of where significant Shia population
centers, zones of influence, and points of interest are located. Some of the
mapped towns do not have majority Shia populations or are more mixed, but their
Shia populations are nevertheless highly influential or consider the towns
especially important. The following are also included:
Holy sites. Often described as “shrines,” these special sites normally serve as
places of worship and veneration for Shia Muslims. For a number of Shia
militias, however, claims of defending such sites constitute the core of their
armed activities. In Syria, the “Defense of Sayyeda Zainab”—referring to the
mosque and shrine south of Damascus—was used as the casus belli for
Iranian-directed Shia groups beginning in 2012. In Iraq, images from the 2006
bombing of al-Askari shrine in Samarra were used to rally Shia fighters into the
ranks of many militias. These mosques, shrines, and similar sites are marked and
explained on the maps.
Holy sites destroyed in conflict. Some of the Shia religious sites that appear
on the maps were deliberately targeted by Sunni jihadists or destroyed during
battles.
Iranian regime must act to de-escalate tensions with US
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 26/2019
Tensions between the US and the Iranian regime have reached new heights. A
leading American lawmaker, Rep. Michael McCaul, who is the ranking Republican on
the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has pointed out that the recent
intelligence obtained about Iran’s threat to US interests in the Middle East was
extremely detailed.
“To the extent I can discuss it, it was human intelligence,” he told USA Today
on Friday, adding that: “One of the Hezbollah cells is known for its kidnapping
and killing operations, and their directive was to go in and kill and kidnap
American soldiers.”
Considering these serious threats, the State Department this month ordered all
“non-emergency” personnel to immediately leave Iraq. Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry
has also ordered all its citizens to leave Iraq. In addition, the US has taken
pre-emptive measures by deploying an aircraft carrier, along with B-52 bombers
and other military forces, to the Middle East. Furthermore, President Donald
Trump warned the Iranian leaders that, if they threatened the US, Tehran would
meet its “official end.”
Iran’s terrorist and militant groups across the region are one of the key
reasons for the current heightened tensions
There are several crucial steps that the Iranian leaders can take in order to
prevent the heightened tensions from spiraling further and turning the region
into a battlefield.
First of all, Iran’s clerical establishment ought to change its political
calculations when it comes to its ties to its militias and proxies. This means
Tehran must refrain from ordering these groups to inflict harm on nations and
governments that the Iranian leaders view as rivals.
However, instead of instructing its proxies to de-escalate tensions, Gen. Qassem
Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force — the elite branch of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps that is tasked with advancing Iran’s revolutionary and
political interests in foreign nations — has told Iran-aligned Iraqi Shiite
militias to “prepare for proxy war.”
In order to de-escalate tensions, Tehran also needs to stop shipping advanced
weaponries to its militia groups. Instead, reports reveal that the Iranian
regime has been increasing its efforts to ship advanced weaponry to its proxies,
such as Hezbollah, that can turn unguided rockets into precision-guided
missiles. In other words, Iran’s terrorist and militant groups across the region
are one of the key reasons for the current heightened tensions.
Secondly, instead of posing serious threats to almost every country in the
region, the Tehran regime must act as a normal political establishment. One of
Iran’s policies that increases insecurity in the region is linked to its
ballistic missile program. The range of existing Iranian ballistic missiles is
more than 2,000 kilometers, which would put Eastern Europe within range, as well
as countries such as Turkey, Israel, and Yemen.
Iran has fired many long-range ballistic missiles and laser-guided
surface-to-surface missiles in recent years. It has also tested a ballistic
missile capable of carrying multiple warheads. Iran has repeatedly violated UN
Security Council resolution 2215, which “calls upon Iran not to undertake any
activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering
nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”
Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the region.
Such activities are provocative and further destabilize the region. By launching
ballistic missiles, as well posting a stealth warship in the Gulf, the Iranian
regime is further escalating tensions and appears to be seeking every
opportunity to project its power in order to reassert its hegemony.
Thirdly, Iran’s leaders must address the threat that their nuclear program
continues to pose to other nations in the region. It has become crystal clear
that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was reached between Iran and
the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US) did not curb
Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. There are many deficiencies in the nuclear
agreement, including the sunset clauses that remove restrictions on Iran’s
nuclear program when the agreement expires.
On the one hand, the Iranian leaders claim their nuclear program is designed for
peaceful purposes. On the other, the regime is repeatedly caught carrying out
clandestine nuclear activities. Tehran should come to the negotiating table and,
once and for all, legitimately remove the threat that its nuclear program and
activities pose to the region. This means allowing the International Atomic
Energy Agency to inspect Tehran’s military bases, including Parchin, which is
reportedly the core location where the regime conducts its nuclear activities.
In conclusion, the Iranian regime can de-escalate tensions in the region by
starting to act as a normal and constructive country. The ball is in Iran’s
court.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman, and
president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
How much further can Brexit Britain fall?
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 26/2019
It is hard to find many Britons with a positive word to say about departing
Prime Minister Theresa May. Yet her inability to please all sides was perhaps
her strongest attribute. She voted for Remain during the 2016 referendum and
then spent three years trying to plow a lonely course between the noisy and
dogmatic hard Brexiteers and the half of the country that didn’t vote to abandon
Europe. Her failure was arguably the result of conceding too much to the
Brexiteer camp, including exiting the EU’s economic and legal structures, and
her initial willingness to countenance a no-deal exit.
May broke records for the immensity of her losses in parliamentary votes. Again
and again she tried ramming effectively the same rejected Brexit bill through
Parliament. What finally broke May’s premiership was an attempt to win the
Labour Party’s support by dangling the prospect of a second referendum in front
of them; after which even her closest ministerial allies abandoned her.
Although several Conservative heavyweights (including Foreign Secretary Jeremy
Hunt) have entered the contest, by far the most likely contender to be the next
prime minister is Boris Johnson — Britain’s Donald Trump. Johnson is regarded by
many MPs with disdain, disquiet or hilarity, yet the final decision will be made
by a relatively small pool of nationwide Conservative Party members, many of
whom view Johnson as something of a national savior-in-waiting.
The struggle to appeal to this fervently Euroskeptic grassroots will drag the
leadership contest to the right. While other candidates may exercise caution in
their promises, Johnson — who clearly believes his moment has arrived — is
already basking in bombastic demagoguery. Like a psychotic bus driver revving
the engine ahead of plunging his passengers over a cliff edge, Johnson has vowed
to let Britain crash out of the EU in October if no deal is agreed. Not that
there will be time to renegotiate a deal before the October deadline anyway.
Would high office force a modicum of responsibility upon Johnson? The burden of
being foreign secretary never had this effect: He failed to properly read
briefings; frequently made embarrassing errors in front of TV cameras; and
caused bemusement with his eccentric manner on foreign trips. Prime Minister
Johnson is not likely to suddenly mutate into a heavyweight politician.
I am continually shocked by austerity Britain’s chronic and intensifying social
hardship. London is awash with people sleeping on the streets; an estimated 14
million people live in relative poverty; and the proportion of children living
in poverty is predicted by the UN to leap to an astronomical 40 percent by 2021.
Living standards have stagnated, while US and European economies are motoring
ahead. Social policies have taken a back seat while politicians endlessly
grandstand over Europe.
Under Brexit’s long shadow, a succession of major industries have fled abroad or
collapsed: Car manufacturers, financial institutions and, most recently, British
Steel. Even blinkered pro-Brexit MPs no longer claim that Trump (whose upcoming
London visit will rub further salt into Britain’s political wounds) will offer
Britain outstanding trade terms. So what will Britain’s future prosperity be
based on once it has severed its connections with the world?
The struggle to appeal to this fervently Euroskeptic grassroots will drag the
leadership contest to the right.
Regions like Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Greater London voted strongly
in favor of staying in Europe but must face the consequences of the outcome.
With Scottish MPs muttering about independence and ongoing confusion over
Ireland’s border status, a hard Brexit could precipitate the UK’s
disintegration.
Having failed to deliver a Brexit deal, Britain has been obligated to
participate in the EU Parliament elections. With the two leading parties
hemorrhaging support, the new Brexit Party is likely to be the single biggest
beneficiary of public frustration. This entity is led by Nigel Farage, who
helped trigger the current Brexit debacle via his previous UK Independence
Party.
Europe’s far-right parties are salivating at the prospect of exploiting election
wins to further subvert the EU’s agenda to their own ends. We are already
witnessing the consequences of a legitimized and rejuvenated far-right in
soaring levels of racist violence and social tensions. Johnson would be seen as
an ideological stablemate, boosting the number of European states lost to
right-wing populism.
Johnson and Farage lied to the nation that Brexit would be painless and easy,
allowing Great Britain to blissfully set sail toward utopian isolation. All
voices of caution were denounced as “Project Fear.” Britons have “had enough of
experts,” insisted Conservative leadership candidate Michael Gove during the
2016 referendum campaign when evidence was cited that wasn’t to his liking.
Despite the fact that a no-deal exit would be economically ruinous, in regions
where locals voted for Brexit in their droves a consensus is developing that
crashing out represents the most honorable and clear-cut method of departure,
having been fed a steady diet of anti-European hysteria by populist, right-wing
tabloids.
May’s successor will almost certainly oppose attempts to force a second
referendum, but this is arguably Britain’s best possible scenario. The 2016 vote
only passed narrowly in a volatile political climate and, three years later,
polls show increasing levels of support for Remain. Even among Brexit
supporters, there are misgivings that the current trajectory isn’t what they
signed up to. Despite populist tabloids denouncing as “traitors” and “enemies of
the people” those who question the initial outcome, Britain should not fear
resorting to democratic principles and holding a further vote. The losing party
should also be bound by the result.
The sad truth is that, amidst all the inevitable political chaos of the coming
months, it will be ordinary voters who are most vulnerable to an economic
downturn or sharp rise in unemployment should the country’s political leaders
choose to press the no-deal self-destruct button.
Standing on this precipice, Britain and the West have never been in greater need
of enlightened, far-sighted leadership. But where are these cool-headed voices
of wisdom when we need them most?
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state
Modi faces array of foreign policy challenges
Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/May 26/2019
Soon after he became prime minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi set off on a
series of visits to neighboring countries, starting a process not just of
getting to know his counterparts around the world, but also recalibrating
India’s foreign policy in some cases or simply reinforcing it in others.
Over five years, Modi made foreign policy, especially repositioning India’s
image globally, a key objective. This was clearly seen as a significant
achievement by voters, even in remote, rural parts of India, when it came to
deciding who they would back in the 2019 elections.
While Modi may have achieved his domestic and overseas objectives, the
challenges of a continuously evolving global scenario mean that he cannot afford
to take his eye off the foreign policy ball, especially since he has been
focused on domestic politics since the beginning of the year.
The first challenge will, of course, be Pakistan. After the Pulwama terror
attack that claimed the lives of 40 security personnel, India has rejected any
talks with Islamabad, despite the efforts of the international community to get
the two nuclear-armed neighbors to start talks in order to reduce tension,
especially after India’s airstrike inside Pakistan.
Modi very effectively used the strike in the campaign, projecting himself as the
only candidate who could protect the nation. But, now that he has been
re-elected, it is imperative that he works to reduce the tension and start talks
with Pakistan. It could be tricky, as any softening of his tone on this subject
would not go down well with either his basic constituents or the more extreme
elements of India’s right wing. Nonetheless, Modi will have to reboot the
relationship and strike a delicate balance.
He may also need to review ties with other neighbors, notably the Maldives, Sri
Lanka and Nepal, which have been developing closer ties with China. Beijing has
now replaced India as these countries’ biggest trading and political partner.
India has been wary of the growing Chinese influence in its own backyard and
Modi will need to move rapidly to reclaim the lost ground.
But the bigger challenges for Modi lie in reinvigorating ties with the two
global heavyweights: The US and China. In the first half of his first term, Modi
moved India extremely close to the US, becoming almost like an additional member
of the NATO alliance, whose foreign policy objectives were dictated by American
interests. This extreme proximity was seen by China as a hostile move, aimed at
isolating or encircling it. Irked, Xi Jinping, the Chinese strongman president,
raised the stakes with India, leading to a standoff between the two countries’
armies at the trilateral border they share with Bhutan.
Modi would be well advised not to follow the dictums of either Trump or
Netanyahu.
After months of tension, Modi finally blinked and went on an urgent visit to
China to meet Xi, with the two nations agreeing to move their armies back to
their normal positions. China was also unhappy with the negative image the
standoff created in India, especially with calls to boycott Chinese goods, so
Modi went on another visit to calm things.
Since then, tension between the US and China has only increased, especially with
regards to their trade dispute. The last few months have also seen US President
Donald Trump threaten India with increased tariffs and the withdrawal of its
special treatment under World Trade Organization rules. Trump has also accused
Modi of taking retrograde and protective measures that are hurting US companies,
notably the changed norms of e-commerce and India’s insistence on data hosting
within the country. Trump has also been pushing India to change its intellectual
property regime, mainly to help US pharmaceutical and technology companies.
As Modi takes charge again, he will have to find India’s way in this triangular
relationship, ensuring that he maintains good relations with both Trump and Xi,
while protecting Indian interests in ties with both the US and China.
Modi will definitely find it easier to navigate India’s ties with the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with whose
leaders he enjoys very good chemistry. He will use his second term to develop
closer ties with these two and the other GCC nations, which are together the
biggest employers of Indian expatriates, with nearly 10 million Indian workers
across the six nations.
The relationship with Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also
recently won an election, is rock solid and the two right-wingers can only be
expected to cement their ties further, going beyond defense, water and
agriculture.
Iran could be the pressure point in the region, as India tries to strike a
balance between its oil needs, as well as the strategic and historic ties it
shares with Tehran, and the mounting pressure from the US and Israel to
dramatically tone down its dependence on Iranian oil.
In the EU, India’s relationship with key nations, notably Germany and France, is
expected to become stronger, but the odd one out would be the UK in view of the
uncertainty over Brexit and the challenges it poses for trade and investment
relations in the medium and long terms. Brexit has not only affected the
relationship between India and the UK, it has also effectively blocked the
long-pending India-EU free trade agreement. Modi will need to find a way to
break this deadlock rapidly. His strong mandate could help him take some risks
in his dealings with overseas partners, at least in the first half of his new
term. He would do well to start on it right away.
*Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group, a global platform
based in Europe and India, which encompasses publishing, communication and
consultation services
Implications of Russian S-400 deal continue to haunt Turkey
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/May 26/2019
Turkey and Russia have genuinely cooperated in the difficult terrain of Idlib.
It started with Turkey helping to facilitate the evacuation of some armed
opposition factions from Aleppo to Idlib. It continued when the three guarantors
of the Astana process — Russia, Turkey and Iran — decided to establish four
de-escalation zones in Syria: Deraa, Eastern Ghouta, Homs and Idlib.
Turkey was only involved in the Idlib de-escalation zone because it was adjacent
to its border with Syria. When Syrian government forces were about to launch a
military operation against the armed opposition factions in the province, Turkey
asked Russia to use its influence to postpone the operation, as it would push
displaced civilians toward and likely across the nearby Turkish border. Media
reports say 150,000 civilians have already started to move toward the border.
Turkey has reached the limits of its capacity to receive refugees because it
already accommodates more than 3.6 million Syrians.
Another reason for Turkey’s initiative to postpone the military operation was
that it thought it could persuade some moderate armed opposition factions to lay
down their arms, thus avoid unnecessary bloodshed.
Turkey genuinely tried to fulfill these promises, but failed. Jabhat Al-Nusra —
now renamed Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham — launched an assault against smaller
opposition factions in the province, ousted them from the lands they controlled
and occupied more than 80 percent of the province’s territory. Russia
appreciated Turkey’s efforts but, after a while, started to grow weary. Russian
officials, without directly criticizing Ankara, expressed their uneasiness at
Turkey’s failure to fulfill its commitment.
The Syrian government, determined to extend its sovereignty to its entire
pre-conflict territory, subsequently resumed its offensive in the rebel-held
areas, with Russian air cover. On May 4, two Turkish soldiers were lightly
wounded by a Syrian army shell near a Turkish observation post. It was unclear
whether this was intentional or accidental.
Upon Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s telephone conversation with his
Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, complaining about the Syrian government’s
violation of the cease-fire, the latter agreed to set up a joint committee to
discuss ways to end the hostilities in Idlib. However, it is unlikely that
Russia will agree to a solution that would turn Idlib into a lasting safe haven
for the armed opposition. Neither Russia nor the Syrian government would settle
for a solution that would allow the situation in Idlib to fester.
The Pentagon says that the delivery to Turkey of new F-35 jet fighters would be
suspended if the S-400 was deployed.
Russia tries its best to manage Turkey’s sensitivity. As a goodwill gesture, it
withdrew its soldiers from Tell Rifaat — a strategically important location that
threatens Turkey’s military presence in Afrin. It is also important because
there is an area held by Kurdish activists south of the city.
Turkish-Russian relations are also tumultuous because of the American pressure
on Ankara to prevent the deployment of the Russian S-400 air defense system in
Turkey. Ankara insists that the purchase of the system is a “done deal” and that
the delivery of its components will start in July, if not sooner, but Washington
is equally insistent that it should not be deployed.
The Pentagon says that the delivery to Turkey of new F-35 jet fighters would be
suspended if the S-400 was deployed. A draft bill unveiled by the Senate Armed
Services Committee last week made the same commitment. There is a major dilemma
here because Turkey is one of the co-manufacturers of the aircraft. As many as
800 different components of the F-35 are manufactured in Turkey and, for some of
these, Turkish companies are the sole supplier. The mother company, Lockheed
Martin, has already started looking for alternative manufacturers to substitute
Turkish companies if the supply comes to an end. The change of suppliers would
be likely to delay delivery of the F-35s, potentially by up to two years.
Ankara seems determined not to step back from the deployment of the S-400, while
Washington continues to believe that Turkey should do so. Russia enjoys watching
this altercation between two NATO allies and is confident that, as the positions
have become so sharpened, Turkey will go ahead with the deployment.
For Russia, one side of the exercise is the sale of the S-400 air defense
system, and another side is the economic deal of $2.5 billion. But, more
important than these two factors, is its success in shaking the solidarity
between two NATO allies and between Turkey and the remainder of the alliance.
As a result of this complicated equation, the Idlib dilemma between Turkey and
Russia becomes just one part of wider disagreement that transcends the local
conflict. Turkey came to this point as a result of a choice it made without
considering all the implications of a deal that looked, at the beginning, as a
simple commercial transaction. But it looks like this controversy may cause a
lot of other headaches for Turkey.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the
ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar