LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 19/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.may18.19.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
Very truly I tell you, whoever hears my word and believes
him who sent me has eternal life and will not be judged but has crossed over
from death to life
John 05/24-30/: “Very truly I tell you, whoever hears my word and believes him
who sent me has eternal life and will not be judged but has crossed over from
death to life. Very truly I tell you, a time is coming and has now come when the
dead will hear the voice of the Son of God and those who hear will live. For as
the Father has life in himself, so he has granted the Son also to have life in
himself. And he has given him authority to judge because he is the Son of Man.
“Do not be amazed at this, for a time is coming when all who are in their graves
will hear his voice and come out—those who have done what is good will rise to
live, and those who have done what is evil will rise to be condemned. By myself
I can do nothing; I judge only as I hear, and my judgment is just, for I seek
not to please myself but him who sent me.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on May 18-19/19
France warns Hizballah to stay clear of possible US-Iran war
Washington to Facilitate Lebanese-Israeli Talks to Demarcate Sea Border
Lebanon’s Judges to Escalate over Austerity Measures
Bechara Asmar Caught Making Fun of Late Patriarch in Viral Video
Vast Condemnation after Beshara Asmar Caught Mocking Late Patriarch Sfeir
Maronite Patriarchate: Bkirki's Doors to Remain Closed to Asmar Until He Atones
for Sin
Rahi condemns remarks on Sfeir, says Bkerki doors closed to GLC Head until he
makes amends
Bechara Asmar Arrested over Leaked Video
Labor Unions Suspend Membership Following Asmar's Insulting Comments
Kataeb Labor Affairs Department Denounces Asmar's Insolence
Maronite League cancels GLC Head membership
One Man Wounded in Ain el-Hilweh Dispute
Bassil: We Insist on a Better Budget Even If It Takes Time
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 18-19/19
First tentative US-Iranian talks don’t promise easing of war tensions
Iraqi Airways Flights to Damascus Postponed Indefinitely
Washington Issues Warning to Airlines Flying over Gulf
Exxon Mobil Evacuates Foreign Staff from Iraq’s West Qurna Oilfield
Bahrain asks its citizens in Iran, Iraq to leave immediately on safety concerns
Gulf states approve redeployment of US forces in the region
Once Again, Iraq Caught up in Tensions between US and Iran
UAE’s Gargash: Western countries agree on Iran being a disruptive force
IRGC chief: We are in full intelligence war with America
US issues warning to airlines flying over Gulf region
Sudan army rulers say talks with protesters to resume Sunday
EU Extends Sanctions Against Syria Regime
Algeria: Anti-Government Protesters Flood Streets, Jump on Police Vans
Syria Air Defenses Intercept Israeli Projectiles
Syria reports second Israeli attack in a row on Saturday
Trump: U.S. Has Agreed to Drop Steel, Aluminum Tariffs with Canada, Mexico
After the Moon, People on Mars by 2033...Or 2060
Australian PM Morrison celebrates stunning win
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on May 18-19/19
First tentative US-Iranian talks don’t promise easing of
war tensions/Debka File/May 18/2019
Analysis/As Tensions Rise Between U.S. and Iran, Each Side Is Waiting for the
Other to Blink/Zvi Bar’el/Haaretz/May 18/2019
The Inevitable Clash With Iran/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/May
18/2019/
Preventing Iran from War/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019/
Tehran Apologists Should Change their Tune/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May
18/2019
Turkey: Many Celebrate the Burning of the Cathedral of Notre Dame/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone
Institute/May 18/2019
War With Iran? Count Us Out, Europe Says/Steven Erlanger, NYT/May 18/2019
Pick up the phone, Rouhani/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/May 18/2019
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published on May 18-19/19
France warns Hizballah to stay clear of
possible US-Iran war
Debka File/May 18/2019/French Ambassador to Lebanon Bruno Foucher
warned Hizballah on Saturday not to participate in a possible war between the
United States and Iran. “Hezbollah is in touch with Iran and the party knows how
dangerous the situation is. This is why we want Hizballah to be alert against
being involved in a reaction that would put Lebanon in danger,” he told a local
paper.
Washington to Facilitate Lebanese-Israeli Talks to Demarcate Sea Border
Beirut - Khalil Fleihan/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019/The United
States agreed to Lebanon’s request to facilitate talks with Israel to solve a
maritime border dispute between the two countries as they seek to exploit their
offshore oil and gas wealth. Washington has dispatched US Acting Assistant
Secretary of State David Satterfield to Beirut, where he presented himself to
officials as a “facilitator,” not a “mediator”, in the dispute. A Lebanese
ambassador, who participated in the peace talks held in Madrid, explained to
Asharq Al-Awsat the difference between the two terms. “A facilitator is someone
who helps parties find a solution to their disputes or prevent a conflict before
it happens,” he said. The facilitator is not a principle part of the
negotiations and he should remain completely neutral, similar to a mediator, he
explained. An official, who met Satterfield in Beirut, said Friday that he
expected the US official’s role to be more than a facilitator in light of Tel
Aviv’s violations in the exclusive economic zone between Lebanon and Israel.
“Israel occupies parts of Lebanese territories by the force of arms and it tried
to steal a large quantity of gas from that area,” the official said. “We have to
wait for the outcome of Satterfield’s talks with Tel Aviv and accordingly, we
will know if Israel accepts the negotiation mechanism suggested by Lebanon in
that regard,” the official said. Beirut proposed that negotiations with Tel Aviv
be held under the patronage of the UN and supervision of the US, similar to the
demarcation of the land border. In a related development, Lebanese officials
asked Satterfield whether the US would include Lebanon in any possible military
attacks against Hezbollah in wake of the mounting tensions with Iran. However,
the US official failed to offer clear replies regarding these inquiries.
Lebanon’s Judges to Escalate over Austerity Measures
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019/Relations between Lebanon’s
executive and judicial branches reached on Friday a new stage of complexity
after judges insisted to challenge the government, which is determined to cut
their benefits and reduce their hospitalization and education allowances. The
judges said Friday they will keep the strike they started four weeks ago,
insisting that it will be open-ended. Their decision means that thousands of
judicial cases will remain frozen unless the government omits the cuts of
benefits for the judiciary in the 2019 austerity budget that it is set to adopt.
The suspension of trials would deprive the treasury from huge revenues. More
than 300 judges met Friday in the Court of Cassation at the Justice Palace in
Beirut, where the Higher Judicial Council briefed conferees on the outcome of
the recent contacts with the legislative and executive authorities. No statement
was issued following Friday’s meeting, however, judicial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the judges agreed not to relinquish their demands and to take escalatory
measures over the government’s failure to deal with the judiciary as an
independent body. “This job is no longer tempting to many judges, who pay high
transportation fees by moving from one governorate to another, and incur the
moral and physical hardship without anything in return,” the sources said. Only
one quarter of judges are functional in the country, after the majority of them
decided to suspend their work in light of the government’s proposals to cut
their benefits. “Many judges now feel that their social security is in real
threat,” the source said, demanding that the judicial authority in Lebanon
remains independent from the executive authority.
Bechara Asmar Caught Making Fun of Late
Patriarch in Viral Video
Kataeb.org/ Saturday 18th May 2019/A video showing the head of the General
Confederation of Lebanese Workers, Bechara Asmar, mocking the late Patriarch
Emeritus Nasrallah Sfeir went viral on Friday, sparking widespread condemnation.
Unaware that his microphone was on before a news conference, Asmar was heard
joking with people sitting alongside him, making fun of the venerable patriarch
one day before he was laid to rest. "This one has become a saint now! I kept
praying all night [to him] asking that hair would grow again on my bald head,"
Asmar said mockingly. Father Abdo Abu Kasem, the head of the Catholic Media
Center, lashed out at Asmar, slamming his "decadent" remarks. "When someone
talks disdainfully about a great man like Patriarch Sfeir, then he doesn't
deserve to remain in his position," Abu Kasem said, adding that it would be
purposeless for Asmar to make an apology, or to justify what he said as a mere
joke or a slip of the tongue. Several lawmakers, the Maronite League, the
Maronite Diaspora Institute, the Future Movement, and many others condemned
Asmar's behavior, demanding that he would be arrested and removed from his post.
Vast Condemnation after Beshara Asmar Caught Mocking Late
Patriarch Sfeir
Naharnet/May 18/2019/The insulting remarks made by the head of
the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers Beshara al-Asmar about late
patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir sparked wide nation condemnation calling for his
detention. “Asmar was summoned for interrogation for insulting Patriarch Sfeir,”
according to LBCI TV station on Saturday quoting unnamed sources. Justice
Minister Albert Serhan said “the Central Criminal Investigation Department was
instructed to initiate investigations to build on the matter.”Serhan denounced
the insulting remarks against a “great national and religious establishment,
such as the late Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir.”A video went
viral on social media on Friday showing Asmar mocking Sfeir shortly before a
televised press conference began. Asmar was unaware his microphone was on before
the conference. Several deputies, the Progressive Socialist Party, al-Mustaqbal
Movement, the Maronite League and many others condemned Asmar’s remarks
demanding that he would be removed from his post and detained.
Maronite Patriarchate: Bkirki's Doors to Remain Closed to
Asmar Until He Atones for Sin
Kataeb.org/Saturday 18th May 2019/Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi on Saturday
utterly condemned the insulting comments made by the head of the General
Confederation against Bechara Asmar against the late Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir,
announcing that the doors of the Maronite Patriarchate will remain closed to
Asmar until he "atones for his sin".In a statement issued by his media office,
the patriarch shored up the reactions that followed the video leak, supporting
calls for the resignation of Asmar from his post. "The comments render the
person who said them ineligible for a public service post and compel him to
apologize to the soul of the late Cardinal and to all the Lebanese who were hurt
by his behavior," the statement stressed.
Rahi condemns remarks on Sfeir, says Bkerki doors closed to
GLC Head until he makes amends
Sat 18 May 2019/NNA - Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rahi sternly condemned on
Saturday the offensive remarks recently made by the head of the General Labor
Confederation, Beshara Asmar, on late Cardinal Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir. In a
statement issued by Bkerki's press office, the Patriarch welcomed the swift
mobilization of the state prosecution. "Such comments automatically disqualify
their author from assuming responsibilities relevant to public affairs," Rahi
said. He added that the doors of Bkerki would remain closed to Asmar until "he
makes amends for his sin."
Bechara Asmar Arrested over Leaked Video
Kataeb.org/Saturday 18th May 2019/Justice Minister Albert Serhan said on
Saturday that he’s been following up on the case with Acting Public Prosecutor
Imad Qabalan, adding that the latter informed him that Asmar has been arrested
and investigations are still ongoing. According to New TV, Qabalan decided to
arrest Asmar after hearing his testimony on the leaked video showing him mocking
the late Patriarch Emeritus Nasrallah Sfeir.
Labor Unions Suspend Membership Following Asmar's Insulting Comments
Kataeb.org/Saturday 18th May 2019/Following the uproar that the insulting
comments made by the head of the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers,
Bechara Asmar, against late Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir have caused, reactions
started to escalate as several labor unions suspended its membership in the
confederation. Head of the Independent Syndical Union, Georges al-Alam,
announced that ten unions are suspending their membership to protest the brazen
offence and to pressure the resignation of Asmar. Asmar has been summoned for
interrogation, LBCI channel reported.
Kataeb Labor Affairs Department Denounces Asmar's Insolence
Kataeb.org/Saturday 18th May 2019/The Kataeb party's Labor Affairs Department on
Saturday condemned the insulting comments made by the head of the Confederation
of Lebanese Workers Bechara Asmar against the late Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir,
blasting insolence towards national and spiritual icons.
The department called on Asmar to take responsibility for his behavior and to
take the widespread uproar that his comments have sparked into consideration
when deciding his next move. Asmar must act in a way that preserves the labor
struggle, safeguards the unity of the confederation and maintains the trust that
Lebanon's workers have accorded to the union.
Maronite League cancels GLC Head membership
Sat 18 May 2019/NNA - The Maronite League on Saturday decided to cancel the
membership of Head of the General Labor Confederation, Beshara Asmar, as well as
to sue him over his remarks insulting late patriarch Cardinal Mar Nasrallah
Boutros Sfeir. The decision was taken unanimously during an urgent meeting for
the League's executive board, called forth by its president, former lawmaker
Neemtallah Abi Nasr. The League also called to cease circulating the leaked
footage where Asmar can be heard offending the late prelate.
One Man Wounded in Ain el-Hilweh Dispute
Naharnet/May 18/2019/A man was injured when a personal dispute accompanied by
gunfire erupted at the southern Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh in
Sidon, the National News Agency reported on Saturday. “A personal dispute where
sharp tools were used erupted at the camp. One person of al-Awad family
sustained a knife stab to his neck. Afterwards, two men on their motorcycle
started firing gunshots in the direction of al-Braxat neighborhood,” said NNA.
Such incidents are common in Ain el-Hilweh, the largest of Lebanon's 12
Palestinian refugee camps. By long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does
not enter the Palestinian camps in the country, leaving the Palestinian factions
themselves to handle security.That has created lawless areas in many camps, and
Ain el-Hilweh has gained notoriety as a refuge for extremists and fugitives.
Bassil: We Insist on a Better Budget Even If It Takes Time
Naharnet/May 18/2019/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Saturday began a tour in
North Lebanon where he was welcomed by Minister of Justice Albert Serhan, Deputy
George Atallah and by crowds of citizens and supporters. “We are working to
launch the reform through the state budget,” said Bassil, and referred to the
suggestions he made during a Cabinet meeting on Friday which he said his bloc
“insists on” in order to “end up with a better budget.”“We insist to come up
with a better budget even if it takes time,” he said. On criticisms that he is
delaying the approval of the budget, Bassil said: “They accuse us of delaying
the budget because they want a normal one. They actually agree with our
suggestions but prefer postponement.” Bassil made suggestions during the Cabinet
session which reportedly infuriated Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil at the
end of the session expressing his dismay over having to repeat the draft budget
several times. Bassil reportedly suggested lowering the prices of Middle East
Airlines tickets by 30% to “encourage tourists and boost tourism.”He also
suggested that revenues from some of the airport's activities go to the treasury
rather than to MEA.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 18-19/19
King Salman convenes summit of Gulf and Arab
states
Arab News/May 18/2019/RIYADH: Saudi Arabia's King Salman has
called for the convening of two summits of Gulf and Arab states to be held on
May 30 in Makkah. The meeting will be held in conjunction with the upcoming
Islamic Summit. According to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement, King
Salman has sent an invitation to the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries and leaders of other Arab countries to two summits to discuss the
recent attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in the UAE and on Saudi Arabia's
oil pipelines and their repercussions on the region. “The attack on ships in the
territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates and the terrorist-backed
Iran-backed Houthi militias’ attack on two oil pumping stations in the Kingdom
have serious implications for regional and international peace and security and
for the supply and stability of world oil markets,” the foreign ministry said in
a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency.
First tentative US-Iranian talks don’t promise easing of
war tensions
Debka File/May 18/2019
Both the US and Iran appear for now to be holding back from a direct military
confrontation, judging from the comments heard on all sides. On Tuesday, May 14,
US President Donald Trump said: “We don’t want a war with Iran.” The next day,
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “The Iranian nation has chosen the
path of resistance.” The most revealing comment came on Friday, May 17, from
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani after a visit
to Tehran: “A red desk should be set up in Iraq or Qatar with officials from the
two sides… to manage tensions.”
All these remarks confirm the suspicion that American and Iranian officials are
already in secret conversation in Baghdad or in Doha, although engaged in
nothing more than a start on “talks about talks” – a far cry from ordering a
slowdown of their threatening military movements. Therefore, flareups are still
on the cards, including such incidents as the presumed Israeli air or missile
strike on Iranian and Hizballah sites south of Damascus on Friday night, May 17.
It may be taken for granted that Israel would have cleared with Washington in
advance any attack on Iranian targets in Syria.
Even if US and Iranian officials achieve enough progress in their preliminary
talks to lift the war clouds hanging over the Middle East, they would still face
major hurdles on the path to negotiations on the substantive subjects at issue.
The easing of crippling US sanctions will top Iran’s agenda, as it has for Kim
Jong-un after his two summits with President Donald Trump, and also most likely
for President Vladimir Putin when he met Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Sochi
last Tuesday, although the trade war with China takes place on a different
plane.
Up until now, Trump has stuck fast to sanctions as the most powerful weapon in
his foreign policy toolbox with regard to Iran, North Korea, China and Russian,
in the hope that one of those powers will blink first and the others will
follow. That has still not happened.
Trump confronts Tehran with his tallest order: Halt malign meddling in the
affairs of Middle East nations, especially, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen; give up
your nuclear weapons and ballistic missile development programs; and return to
the table for talks on a revised nuclear pact. However, although the sanctions
against Iran are harsh, Khamenei is a tough survivor and confident enough to
believe that he can outlast his adversary in the White House.
Iraqi Airways Flights to Damascus Postponed Indefinitely
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/Iraqi Airways flights to
Damascus expected for the first time since the war erupted in 2011 have been
postponed indefinitely. Syria's transport ministry said the two flights
scheduled for Saturday were postponed because of administrative issues between
the Syrian Civil Aviation and Iraqi Airways. It gave no further details. The
delay was relayed by the Iraqi embassy. Iraqi Airways announced Thursday it
would resume flights, making it the first international company to announce
plans to return to Damascus International Airport. Only Syrian Airlines remained
operative at the airport, organizing some international flights.
Washington Issues Warning to Airlines Flying over Gulf
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/The Federal Aviation Administration has
warned US airlines flying over the Gulf to exercise caution "due to heightened
military activities and increased political tensions in the region." The
advisory, which also covers airspace over the Gulf of Oman, comes amid rising
tensions between the US and Iran. Increased tensions in the region "present an
increasing inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations due to the potential
for miscalculation or mis-identification,” said the FAA advisory released late
Thursday. The regulator also warned that aircraft flying in the area could
encounter "inadvertent GPS interference and communications jamming, which could
occur with little to no warning." Washington has deployed the USS Abraham
Lincoln and its carrier strike group, and B-52 bombers to the region against
what it claims is an imminent threat from Tehran.President Donald Trump's
administration has also ordered non-essential diplomatic staff out of Iraq,
citing threats from Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups.
Exxon Mobil Evacuates Foreign Staff from Iraq’s West Qurna Oilfield
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/Exxon Mobil has evacuated
all of its foreign staff from Iraq's West Qurna 1 oilfield and is flying them
out to Dubai, three sources told Reuters on Saturday. Production at the oilfield
was not affected by the evacuation and work is continuing normally, overseen by
Iraqi engineers, Iraqi oil officials said. "Production is managed by Iraqi
engineers anyway, the foreigners are advisers. We have a closed circuit
television link with them (foreign staff) and can communicate with them whenever
we need," said an official at Iraq's South Oil Company. Staff were evacuated in
several phases late on Friday and early on Saturday, either straight to Dubai or
to the main camp housing foreign oil company employees in Basra province. Those
in the camp were en route to the airport on Saturday morning, the three sources
- an employee at a security company contracted by Exxon, an Iraqi oil official,
and a staff member of a foreign oil company – said. "Last night 28 employees
were evacuated to the airport and the rest were sent to the camp. This morning
they were evacuated to the airport and no (foreign) staff remain in the field,"
said a private security company official who oversaw the evacuation. Days of
saber rattling between Washington and Tehran have heightened tensions in the
region amid concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict. Iraqi Foreign Minister
Mohammed Ali Al-Hakim said his country should stay away from conflict, adding
that efforts should be exerted to avoid "tensions and escalation" in the Middle
East. He made his comments in Britain on Friday during a meeting with Foreign
Secretary Jeremy Hunt, according to a statement released by the office of the
Iraqi official. Hakim said Iraq's point of view is that any moves could escalate
the situation in the region. The United States on Wednesday pulled non-emergency
staff members from its embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad out of apparent
concern about perceived threats from neighboring Iran, to which Iraqi militias
are allied. Washington has increased economic sanctions and built up its
military presence in the region, accusing Iran of threats to US troops and
interests. Tehran has described those steps as "psychological warfare" and a
"political game".
Bahrain asks its citizens in Iran, Iraq to leave
immediately on safety concerns
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 18 May 2019/US-allied Bahrain warned
its citizens on Saturday against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already
there to return “immediately” for their safety, state news agency BNA said. The
Bahrain foreign ministry cited, “unstable regional circumstances, dangerous
developments and potential threats,” according to BNA. The warning comes amid
simmering tensions between the United States and Iran. Washington on Wednesday
pulled non-emergency staff members from its embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad
out of apparent concern about perceived threats from neighboring Iran, to which
Iraqi Shiite militias are allied. Earlier on Saturday Exxon evacuated its
foreign staff from an Iraqi oilfield.
Gulf states approve redeployment of US forces in the region
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 18 May 2019/A number of Gulf states,
including Saudi Arabia, have approved Washington’s request to redeploy US forces
in Arabian Gulf waters and territories to thwart possible Iranian attacks in the
region, informed Gulf sources told Asharq al-Awsat. The sources said the
redeployment of US forces in the Gulf states was part of joint US-Gulf efforts
to deter Iran from any military escalation, with the aim of further building
cooperation between American and Gulf military forces. Such measures would
protect the energy supply and prevent Iran from disrupting maritime traffic in
that region, they added. The sources said the approval of Gulf states on the
redeployment was based on bilateral agreements. “Saudi Arabia and the rest of
GCC states do not wish to start a war with Iran, but they want to send a strong
message to Tehran that it cannot cross the red line by continuing to provoke
forces operating in the Arabian Gulf,” the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on
Friday. The source said the Kingdom does not wish to engage in a war with
Tehran, yet Riyadh is capable of protecting its territories from any aggression.
Washington has sent its aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Arabian
Gulf. The development comes as four commercial vessels, including two Saudi oil
tankers, were sabotaged near the UAE's emirate of Fujairah.
Once Again, Iraq Caught up in Tensions between US and Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
sat down with Iraqi officials in Baghdad last week as tensions mounted between
America and Iran, he delivered a nuanced message: If you're not going to stand
with us, stand aside. The message, relayed to The Associated Press by two Iraqi
government officials, underscores Iraq's delicate position: Its government is
allied with both sides of an increasingly contentious confrontation. As tensions
escalate, there are concerns that Baghdad could once again get caught in the
middle, just as it is on the path to recovery. The country hosts more than 5,000
US troops, and is home to Iranian-backed militias, some of whom want those US
forces to leave. "The big question is how Iraqi leaders will deal with (their)
national interests in a country where loyalty to external powers is widespread
at the expense of their own nation," Iraqi political analyst Watheq al-Hashimi
said. "If the state cannot put these (Iranian-backed militias) under control,
Iraq will become an arena for an Iranian-American armed conflict."Despite a
series of provocative moves on both sides, President Donald Trump has said he
doesn't want a war with Iran and has even said he is open to dialogue. But
tension remains high, in part given the region's fraught history.
For Iraq to be a theater for proxy wars is not new. During America's eight-year
military presence that began with the 2003 invasion of Iraq, US troops and
Iranian-backed militiamen fought pitched battles around the country, and scores
of US troops were killed or wounded by the militia forces armed with
sophisticated Iranian-made weapons, said the AP. American forces withdrew from
Iraq in 2011 but returned in 2014 at the invitation of Iraq to help battle the
ISIS group after it seized vast areas in the north and west of the country,
including Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul. A US-led coalition provided crucial
air support as Iraqi forces regrouped and drove ISIS out in a costly three-year
campaign. Iranian-backed militias fought alongside US-backed Iraqi troops
against ISIS, gaining influence and power.
Now, amid an escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Iraq is once again
vulnerable to becoming caught up in the power play. An attack targeting US
interests in Iraq would be detrimental to the country's recent efforts at
recovering and reclaiming its status in the Arab world. Earlier this year, Trump
provoked outrage in Baghdad when he said he wanted US troops to stay in Iraq so
they can "watch Iran," suggesting a changing mission for American troops there.
On May 8, Pompeo made a lightning, previously unannounced trip to the Iraqi
capital following the abrupt cancellation of a visit to Germany, and as the
United States had been picking up intelligence that Iran is threatening American
interests in the Middle East. The two Iraqi officials said Pompeo relayed
intelligence information the US had received about a threat to US forces in Iraq
— but kept it vague. They said he did not specify the nature of the threat. The
officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to divulge confidential
information, said Pompeo told the Iraqis that America did not expect them to
side with the US in any confrontation with Iran, but that they should not side
against America. In other words, stand aside.
A few days later, as US-Iranian tensions continued to rise, the State Department
ordered all non-essential, non-emergency government staff to leave the country.
US officials said Pompeo told the Iraqis the US had an "inherent right to self-defense"
and would use it if US personnel, facilities or interests are attacked by Iran
or its proxies in Iraq or anywhere else. The three officials, who were not
authorized to publicly discuss the private meetings in Baghdad and spoke on
condition of anonymity, said Pompeo was not contemplating any preemptive strikes
on Iran or the use of Iraqi territory to stage military operations against Iran.
Pompeo's message, the officials said, was that the US wants to avoid conflict
but would respond or defend itself if necessary, reported the AP.
The secretary told reporters on the flight that his meetings with Iraq's
president and prime minister were intended to demonstrate US support for "a
sovereign, independent" Iraq, free from the influence of neighboring Iran.
Pompeo also said he wanted to underscore Iraq's need to protect Americans in
their country.
A general at Iraq's Defense Ministry said Iraq was taking precautionary security
measures in light of the information about threats against US interests,
although those measures have not reached the highest levels. "Iraqi forces are
worried that American forces could be targeted by factions loyal to Iran," said
the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized
to speak to the media. He added that any attack on US troops could come as
retaliation if the United States were to carry out a military operation against
Iran.
The heightened tensions between Iran and the US come a year after Trump pulled
America out of Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers and as the White House
ordered an aircraft carrier and bombers into the region over a still-unexplained
threat from Iran. On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates said that four oil tankers
off its eastern coast were targeted by sabotage. On Tuesday, Yemen's Iran-allied
Houthi militias said they launched seven drones to target Saudi Arabia. The
drones stuck pumping stations along the Kingdom's crucial East-West Pipeline,
causing minor damage, Saudi officials say.
On the streets of Baghdad, some shrugged off the rising tensions while others
worried their country could be sucked into another war. Aqil Rubaei said he was
worried that his country, which has been at war since a year before he was born,
will be the place where the US and Iran will settle their accounts. The
38-year-old was born in 1981, a year after Iran and Iraq began their eight-year
war and was 9 years old when Saddam Hussein's forces invaded Kuwait leading to a
destructive war that forced Iraq out of Kuwait and 13 years of crippling
sanctions.
In 2003, the US invaded and removed Saddam, leading to the rise of extremist
groups that culminated in 2014 with the ISIS group capturing large parts of Iraq
and Syria and declaring a so-called caliphate. The war that followed left entire
Iraqi cities and towns destroyed until Iraq declared victory in 2017.
"Iraqi people are fed up with war," said Rubaei inside his cosmetics shop in
Baghdad's Karrada neighborhood. "We don't want Iraq to become an arena for an
Iranian-American war."
UAE’s Gargash: Western countries agree on Iran being a
disruptive force
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/May 18/2019/Western countries agree there is a
problem with Iran’s regional behavior, a UAE minister said, while adding that
there were disagreements over approach. “I think it concerns us when we see that
the West is speaking with different approaches. I think all these countries that
you have mentioned agree that there is a problem with Iran's behavior. I think
there's agreement across the board that Iran has been a disruptive force,” UAE’s
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash told CNN during an interview
on Thursday. The minister said the sabotage attack against four oil tankers last
Sunday off the coast of Fujairah had come at a “sensitive and difficult period
in the region.”“Clearly, we all have an interest at this time in de-escalating
and dealing with things in a mature, rational way,” Gargash said. A confidential
assessment issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks
Insurance Association (DNK) on Friday said that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are
“highly likely” to have facilitated attacks off Fujairah. Gargash said that the
UAE is currently collaborating with France, the United States and others in
probing what happened last Sunday. “So, in a few days, we should know what took
place and what transpired. Clearly, this is a very, very serious incident
because it affects maritime commerce,” he said.
IRGC chief: We are in full intelligence war with America
Debka File/May 18/2019/New Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Maj. Gen. Hossein
Salami was quoted as saying by Fars news agency on Saturday: “We are in a full
intelligence war with the United States and the enemies of the Islamic Republic.
This war is a combination of psychological warfare, cyber operations, military
operations, diplomacy, fear, and intimidation.” He went on to say: “America has
lost its power, and even though they look powerful, they are frail,” he said,
adding: “In reality America’s story is the same as the story of the World Trade
Center that collapsed suddenly with one strike.”
US issues warning to airlines flying over Gulf region
AFP, Washington/Saturday18 May 2019/The Federal Aviation Administration has
warned US airlines flying over the Gulf to exercise caution “due to heightened
military activities and increased political tensions in the region.”
The advisory, which also covers airspace over the Gulf of Oman, comes amid
rising tensions between the US and Iran. Increased tensions in the region
“present an increasing inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations due to
the potential for miscalculation or misidentification”, said the FAA advisory
released late Thursday. The regulator also warned that aircraft flying in the
area could encounter “inadvertent GPS interference and communications jamming,
which could occur with little to no warning.” Washington has deployed an
aircraft carrier group and B-52 bombers to the region against what it claims is
an imminent threat from Tehran. President Donald Trump’s administration has also
ordered non-essential diplomatic staff out of Iraq, citing threats from
Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups. The White House however has sent mixed
signals in recent days, amid multiple US media reports of infighting in Trump’s
cabinet over how hard to push Washington’s arch foe. According to US media
reports, Trump’s long-hawkish national security advisor John Bolton is pushing a
hard line on Iran, but others in the administration are resisting. The White
House and Pentagon have been under pressure to demonstrate the reason for the
huge buildup in forces and heightened rhetoric of the past two weeks. US
coalition partners in Iraq had suggested earlier this week that the threat level
there had not risen significantly, and members of Congress demanded to see the
information behind the administration’s apparent preparation for possible
conflict.
Sudan army rulers say talks with protesters to resume
Sunday
AFP Saturday, 18 May 2019/Sudan’s army rulers announced talks
will resume with protest leaders Sunday, four days after the generals suspended
negotiations on implementing a civilian rule in the country. “The Transitional
Military Council announces the resumption of negotiations with the Alliance for
Freedom and Change on Sunday at the presidential palace,” the ruling army
council said in a Saturday statement. Representatives from the UN, African Union
and European powers “called for an immediate resumption of talks” between the
two sides, said Tibor Nagy, the US assistant secretary of state for Africa. The
army last month ousted longtime president Omar al-Bashir after months of
mounting protests led by young people that were sparked by the high cost of
bread. Protesters have remained camped out, saying that they want a rapid
transition to democracy rather than continued military rule. The generals and
protest leaders had been expected to come to an agreement on Wednesday on the
thorniest issue – the make-up of a new body to govern Sudan for three years. But
the head of the military council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, early Thursday
announced a suspension of talks for 72 hours as he demanded that protesters
dismantle roadblocks and open bridges and railway lines connecting the capital.
EU Extends Sanctions Against Syria Regime
Brussels - Abdullah Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/The Council
of the European Union has extended until June 1, 2020 sanctions imposed on the
Syrian regime. The Council said in a statement, a copy of which was obtained by
Asharq Al-Awsat, that the decision was in line with the EU strategy on Syria.
“The EU decided to maintain its restrictive measures against the Syrian regime
and its supporters as the repression of civilian population continues,” it said
on Friday. “The Council also removed 5 deceased persons from the list, as well
as one entity which ceased to exist and one entity for which there were no
longer grounds to keep it under restrictive measures. The list now includes 270
persons and 70 entities targeted by a travel ban and an asset freeze for being
responsible for the violent repression against the civilian population in Syria,
benefiting from or supporting the regime, and/or being associated with such
persons or entities,” said the statement. “More broadly, sanctions currently in
place against Syria include an oil embargo, restrictions on certain investments,
a freeze of the assets of the Syrian central bank held in the EU, export
restrictions on equipment and technology that might be used for internal
repression as well as on equipment and technology for the monitoring or
interception of internet or telephone communications,” it added.EU sanctions
were first imposed on December 1, 2011 and are subject to an annual review. “The
EU remains committed to finding a lasting and credible political solution to the
conflict in Syria as defined in the UN Security Council resolution 2254 and in
the 2012 Geneva Communique,” said the Council.
Algeria: Anti-Government Protesters Flood Streets, Jump on Police Vans
Algiers- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/Protesters flooded the streets
of Algeria for the 13th straight Friday, climbing atop police vans that were
blocking the main demonstration site in the capital in a bold show of defiance.
Security forces earlier fired tear gas into the crowd in Algiers to keep them
out of the central post office plaza, but lifted their barricades after
protesters climbed onto the roofs of their vehicles. Tens of thousands of people
came out in Algiers and other cities in the North African nation for a
pro-democracy movement that started Feb. 22, despite the daylong fasting
required by the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. They reiterated demands that
Algeria's interim leader leave office and the country's July 4 presidential
election be scrapped. Long-time former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stepped
down April 2, pressured by protests and the powerful army chief. The protests
were triggered by Bouteflika's plan to seek a fifth term after 20 years in
office despite a 2013 stroke after which he was rarely seen in public.
Protesters now want other top officials, including interim President Abdelkader
Bensalah, to leave office to ensure a new era for Algeria, which has been run
since independence from France in 1962 by a generation that fought in the war.
"The mobilization must continue," said sociologist Mohamed Henned. However, he
added that there must be "political and institutional (structures) for this
citizens' movement" to ensure success for the transitional phase they seek.
Army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, who is also targeted by some protesters, has
insisted on the need to hold a presidential vote on July 4, the date set by the
interim leader, to respect the constitution.
Syria Air Defenses Intercept Israeli Projectiles
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 18/2019/Syrian air defense batteries on Friday
intercepted projectiles coming from Israel and downed a number of them, the
official news agency SANA reported. "Our air defense systems intercepted
luminous objects coming from the occupied territories (Israel) and downed
several of them," SANA said quoting a military source. A later report described
the projectiles as "hostile targets" which were fired "towards the province of
Quneitra" near the Golan Heights, parts of which are annexed by Israel. Earlier
SANA reported a "loud explosion" around the capital Damascus. The Britain-based
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said "three explosions" shook
southwest Damascus on Friday. "They were Israeli strikes that targeted the
Kiswah region where weapons warehouses belonging to Iran and (its Lebanese
proxy) Hezbollah are located," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.
Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes in Syria, most of them against
what it says are Iranian and Hezbollah targets. The latest report comes amid
soaring tensions in the region between Israel's arch-foe Iran and the United
States. The stand-off had been simmering since the United States last year
withdrew from the 2015 nuclear treaty which Iran reached with major world
powers. In recent days the US accused Iran of alleged threats and last week
deployed an aircraft carrier group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf. In April, Syria
said an Israeli air strike targeted a town in central Hama province north of
Damascus, wounding three combatants and destroying buildings. State media at the
time said Syrian air defenses intercepted "some of the Israeli missiles". In
March, Syria accused Israel of having attacked targets just north of second city
Aleppo, adding that it air defenses had shot down several missiles, after a
string of Israeli raids in January. On January 12, 2019, Syrian air defenses
shot down Israeli missiles targeting a transport ministry warehouse at the
Damascus international airport, SANA reported at the time. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that strike and said Israel was "more
determined than ever to act against Iran in Syria."Just over a week later Israel
announced its Iron Dome aerial defense system had intercepted a rocket fired
from Syria by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force. In response, Israeli
fighter jets carried out further strikes inside Syria, targeting Iranian
facilities and Syrian aerial defense batteries. The Observatory said that at
least 21 people, mostly Iranians, were killed in the January raids. Israel
insists that it has the right to continue to target positions in Syria held by
Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. Netanyahu has vowed not to let Iran --
which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad -- entrench itself militarily in
the war-torn country.
Syria reports second Israeli attack in a row on Saturday
Debka File/May 18/2019/Syria’s SANA reports that its air defense Saturday again
targeted “projectiles” coming from “occupied territory” for the second night
running – and again over Al Kisweh south of Damascus. Friday night, Israel
reportedly struck the same location where Iranian Guards and Hizballah maintain
missiles depots. Israel’s military declined to comment on the report.
Trump: U.S. Has Agreed to Drop Steel, Aluminum Tariffs with Canada, Mexico
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 18/2019/President Donald Trump on Friday
announced an end to steel and aluminum tariffs with Canada and Mexico. "We just
reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico… (to trade) without the imposition
of tariffs or major tariffs," he told a property dealers' conference in
Washington.
After the Moon, People on Mars by 2033...Or 2060
Washington- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 May, 2019/On December 11, 2017, US
President Donald Trump signed a directive ordering NASA to prepare to return
astronauts to the Moon "followed by human missions to Mars and other
destinations."The dates fixed by the space agency are 2024 for the Moon and Mars
in 2033, but according to experts and industry insiders, reaching the Red Planet
by then is highly improbable barring a Herculean effort on the scale of the
Apollo program in the 1960s. "The Moon is the proving ground for our eventual
mission to Mars," NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said at a conference this
week. "The Moon is our path to get to Mars in the fastest, safest way possible.
That's why we go to the Moon." According to Robert Howard, who heads up the lab
developing future space habitats at the legendary Johnson Space Center in
Houston, the hurdles aren't so much technical or scientific as much as a
question of budget and political will. "A lot of people want us to have an
Apollo moment, and have a president stand up like Kennedy and say, we've got to
do it and the entire country comes together," he said. "If that happened, I
would actually say 2027. But I don't think that's going to happen. I think in
our current approach, we are going to be lucky to do it by the 2037 date."But
Howard said if he were to be pessimistic, and assume political dithering lay
ahead, "it could be the 2060s." From the design, manufacture, and testing of the
rockets and spaceships required to learning the best way to grow lettuce: all
the groundwork remains to be done. Just getting there will take six months at
least, as opposed to three days to the Moon. The whole mission could take two
years, since Mars and the Earth are closest to each other every 26 months, a
window that must be taken. Key tasks include finding a way to shield astronauts
from prolonged exposure to solar and cosmic radiation, said Julie Robinson,
NASA's chief scientist for the International Space Station. "A second is our
food system," she added. The current plant system ideas "are not packageable,
portable or small enough to take to Mars."
And then there's the question of dealing with medical emergencies: astronauts
will need to be able to treat themselves in case of any accidents. "I actually
think a big deal is the suits," added Jennifer Heldman, a NASA planetary
scientist. One of the major gripes of the Apollo astronauts was their gloves,
which were too inflated and prevented them from doing dexterous work. NASA is
developing a new suit, the first in forty years, called xEMU, but it won't be
ready for its first outing in the International Space Station for a few more
years. On Mars, dust will be even more of a problem than on the Moon. The Apollo
astronauts returned with huge amounts of lunar dust in their modules. Keeping it
out of habitats will be critical for a mission that involves spending months on
the Red Planet. Techniques to exploit Martian resources to extract water, oxygen
and fuel necessary for humans to live there don't yet exist -- and must be
tested on the Moon by the end of this decade. Finally there's the most
fundamental question: how will a group of people cope with the psychological
stress of being totally isolated for two years? It won't be possible to
communicate in real time with Houston mission control: radio communications will
take between four and 24 minutes between the planets, one-way. NASA plans to
test out delayed-communication exercises on board the ISS in the coming years.
Artificial intelligence must also be developed to assist and guide the
astronauts. A researcher commissioned by NASA to study the likelihood of getting
to Mars by 2033 concluded the objective was "infeasible." "It isn't just
budget," said Bhavya Lal of the Science and Technology Policy Institute. "It's
also organization bandwidth, how many things can NASA do at the same time?"For
Lal, the more realistic timeframe was 2039.
Australian PM Morrison celebrates stunning win
Debka File/May 18/2019/After 70pc of the votes counted, Prime Minister
Conservative leader Scott Morrison was seen confounding the polls and pundits
and pulling off a win in Australia’s general election. Opposition Labor Party
leader Bill Shorten has announced he is resigning after accepting defeat. The
ruling Liberal-National Coalition is close to a majority with 74 seats i the
Lower House compared with Labor’s 66.
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on May 18-19/19
Analysis/As Tensions Rise Between U.S. and
Iran, Each Side Is Waiting for the Other to Blink
زفي بارئيل/هآرتس: مع تصاعد التوتر بين إيران وأميركا كل منهما ينتظر من الآخر
التراجع
Zvi Bar’el/Haaretz/May 18/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75007/%D8%B2%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B3-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A5%D9%8A/
Both Tehran and Washington eschew war, but must save face. A powerful mediator,
like Moscow and Beijing, is necessary to pull them back from the brink
U.S. President Donald Trump gave the Iranians his phone number and told them to
call if they want to talk. The Iranians replied that they have no intention of
calling, because there’s nobody to talk to. They don’t trust either America or
the Europeans.
Iran warned Washington that any attack on it would be answered with great force,
but in the same breath, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said there won’t be war with
America. The New York Times reported that the United States plans to send
120,000 troops to the Gulf on top of bomber squadrons and an aircraft carrier;
Trump denied it, calling it fake news.
Two Saudi oil tankers and four commercial ships were damaged by “unknown”
saboteurs. Riyadh accused Iran; Tehran denied it. Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired
missiles at Saudi oil facilities but said they were responding to the Saudis’
war in Yemen, not trying to deter an attack on Iran.
The deputy commander of the Western forces in Iraq and Syria, British Maj. Gen.
Chris Ghika, said there’s no increased threat from Iranian-backed militias. U.S.
Central Command disagreed, saying it has concrete information about plans to
attack American targets.
Is anyone telling the truth? Does anyone know what’s happening?
Tensions are rising, the atmosphere in the Gulf is filled with flammable vapor
and speculation is running wild. Will there be war? Will there be negotiations?
Will the Iranian regime collapse? Will it fold, or will it start a conflict
because it’s fed up with sanctions?
Iran already made its strategic decision when it said it would reduce its
commitment to the nuclear deal. For now, that means increasing its stockpiles of
heavy water and low-enriched uranium.
But that decision has no real effect on Iran’s nuclear program as long as Tehran
doesn’t enrich uranium to high levels, kick out International Atomic Energy
Agency inspectors and restart facilities closed under the agreement. It’s not
there yet.
Iran still considers the nuclear agreement in force but has retracted its
commitment to uphold the deal in full despite America’s withdrawal from it.
While it won’t engage in violations that might prompt military action against
it, its full compliance is no longer assured.
This was a cautious step to the brink; now we’re waiting for one side to blink.
But it could also be an invitation to negotiate.
The West’s working assumption, especially in Washington, is that the sanctions
will force Iran to fold and agree to new negotiations, which would reopen the
nuclear deal and also include its ballistic missile program and its intervention
in countries like Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Iran has capitulated to sanctions or
threats of war twice before.
Once was in 2003, after America toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Then-President Mohammad Khatami wrote to his U.S. counterpart, George W. Bush,
offering comprehensive negotiations over all disagreements including the nuclear
program and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But Bush ignored the offer,
even though Iran froze its nuclear program to prove its goodwill.
The second was when Khamenei approved talks with the United States and five
other countries that led to the nuclear deal.
Washington attributed the first capitulation to Iran’s feeling of being
threatened militarily after America invaded Iraq and the second to economic
pressure created by international sanctions. But while these explanations are
theoretically logical, in Iran’s case, they’re insufficient.
Why, for instance, did Iran hold nuclear talks with Europe and the IAEA for a
decade – until the end of 2012, about six months before Hassan Rohani was
elected president – but consistently thwart and ultimately freeze the
negotiations? If Iran feared an American attack in 2003, why it did it then stop
fearing one and refuse to fold throughout that decade?
Moreover, if sanctions or threats of war could reliably alter countries’
behavior, why did Washington need to go to war against Iraq after more than
decade of sanctions? And why didn’t Iran capitulate to the severe sanctions
imposed by the United Nations and the United States before the nuclear deal?
Pragmatic Tehran
The West generally argues that the earlier sanctions weren’t tough enough and
the military threat wasn’t seen as credible. As proof, pundits note that despite
the sanctions, Iran was able to amass huge foreign currency reserves and finance
various development programs, including the nuclear program and an advanced
missile industry, thanks in part to a global smuggling enterprise abetted by
other countries. Moreover, military action was vehemently opposed by Russia and
China, which even threatened that it could spark a superpower war.
Yet in fact, Iran decided to enter substantive negotiations at the very moment
when the military threat was removed, under U.S. President Barack Obama.
The greatest threat to the regime was actually the mass protests of 2009. And
those weren’t against Iran’s foreign policy but against corruption, the
dictatorship of the elite, severe human rights violations and the massive
electoral fraud that led to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s reelection as president.
Nor was this the uprising Bush had hoped to spark through sanctions – one aimed
at toppling the regime. The protesters demanded reforms but didn’t seek to
change the system of government.
Despite its uncompromising effort to protect itself against domestic threats,
the Iranian regime has always taken a pragmatic line on foreign policy. It
offered to help the United States in its war in Afghanistan and supported
America’s attack on Iraq. Khamenei ordered action against Al-Qaida, and
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq fought the Islamic State in close proximity to
American forces.
Iran recognized the need to calm the Syrian-Israeli border, and when Yemen’s
civil war began, it advised the Houthis to reach a compromise with the Yemeni
regime rather than embark on an all-out war. Iran cooperates with both India and
Pakistan, two rival nuclear powers, and though Shi’ite, it aids Afghanistan’s
Sunni Taliban movement, which is negotiating with the United States.
Iran never demanded that Turkey sever relations with Israel, and despite its own
excellent relations with Ankara, it’s also an ally of the Iraqi Kurds. It
continues to seek a resumption of relations with Egypt, despite Cairo’s close
military cooperation with Israel.
Iran wraps the ideological contractions of its foreign policy in flowery phrases
like “heroic flexibility,” Khamenei’s term for his willingness to negotiate the
nuclear deal. Now he’s talking about “a new stage of the Islamic revolution” to
justify Iran’s reduced commitment to that agreement.
Rohani spoke of “strategic patience” to explain why Iran didn’t respond to the
U.S. withdrawal from the deal. As long as revolutionary phrases can be found to
cover a rational policy, everything is fine.
Rohani recently declared that “strategic patience has ended.” That heralded the
return of the “resistance economy,” the slogan used for economic measures like
cutting subsidies, halting major development plans and finding indirect ways to
export oil and import other goods.
But trying to market the “resistance economy” to Iranians once again is a
political risk because the regime, like the West, can’t predict how the public
will respond.
Trump’s new sanctions on the metal industries could result in the layoff of
around 1.5 million workers in the steel, aluminum and auto industries. Reducing
the exchange-rate subsidies given to meat importers, and probably importers of
other staples as well, will further raise food prices, which have already soared
from 30 to 120 percent this year. Basic services will be cut severely due to the
dramatic drop in oil revenues.
Popular revolt?
Will all this bring Iranians into the streets, to the delight of Trump and
especially his national security adviser, John Bolton? Iranian history is full
of public protests and political revolts that even led to revolutions; the
current regime is the product of one such revolution, which initially enjoyed
support from most segments of Iranian society. Unrest bubbled for almost 30
years before Iranians overturned the Shah’s regime. The Islamic Revolution
celebrated its 40th anniversary this year and the regime is still stable. Yet
the same was said of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
and Libya’s Muammar Gadhafi right before the people ousted them. It’s impossible
to know whether sanctions combined with a military threat will bring out the
critical masses needed for a revolution. But punishment and threats don’t offer
Iranians a promising horizon, which is a necessary condition for an uprising.
Rather, they may well bolster patriotism – not because the public loves the
ayatollahs, but because of traumatic memories of Western occupation and
aggression during and after the colonial era. Washington is now feeding these
memories.
The question isn’t just what Tehran will do about the enormous pressure it’s
under, but what Washington will do if Iran doesn’t fold. It’s unlikely that the
Trump administration has any plan beyond sanctions and waiting for an Iranian
phone call. The attacks on the Saudi ships and pipeline aren’t justification for
war. Moreover, the administration doesn’t even claim to have proof that Iran was
behind the attacks, aside from general information that pro-Iranian forces were
planning attacks on American targets.
Trump is also embroiled in a political battle with Congress, which has warned
him not to drag the country into another Iraq-style war. Senior people in both
houses have demanded more detailed information about the Iranian threat, and
Thursday, congressional leaders received a closed briefing about it from Trump’s
advisers.
Russia is benefiting from the sanctions on Iran, but a war that would bring
massive American forces into the Gulf is the last thing it wants. China, which
is waging a titanic battle with Washington over a trade agreement, has
significantly reduced oil purchases from Iran, but a military conflict that
would raise oil prices would cause it huge economic damage. The Arab Gulf
states, which are in range of Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles, are also
a barrier to war. This dense web of interests and pressures demands a “deal of
the century” for two parties that don’t want war but must preserve their honor
and prestige. A powerful mediator who can break the mutual bear hug is also
needed. So maybe it’s time for Moscow and Beijing to enter the arena and return
both sides to negotiations, while also collecting suitable mediation fees in
diplomatic coin.
The Inevitable Clash With Iran
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019/
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75010/%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7/
All possibilities exist when we consider the prospect of a military clash with
Iran. It might be widespread, or limited to a targeted response to the recent
attacks — or it might not happen at all.
However, the regime in Tehran ultimately will face the same fate as that of
Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi. This is historically an inevitability for
aggressive regimes, because their ability to survive and thrive depends on
carrying out increasingly aggressive activities. This explains a lot about the
problematic regime of Saddam Hussein, which engaged in direct battles with Iran
and the Gulf Cooperation Council nations, was about to go to war with Syria
before that, and in the end clashed with the world’s major power, the United
States, and was eliminated.
Aggressive regimes have a pattern of behavior they can rarely break, which leads
them in the end to destruction and suicide, as in the case of Nazi Germany. This
leads us to rule out the possibility that Tehran would deal with the crisis with
anything other than extremism and defiance. This has been the regime’s nature
since the establishment of the republic, when it declared that exporting the
revolution was its goal. To this day, Tehran has been seeking to export
revolution in accordance with its theocratic political vision and, because of
this, the region is in a state of continuous turmoil.
For many years, the countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, have been
affected by Iran’s policies and practices against them but have avoided pushing
the situation toward a confrontation. However, the desire to deter Iran has
almost always been present in minds and evident during panel discussions.
The prospect was raised in a serious manner during the past decade when it
became clear that Tehran was dangerously speeding up its nuclear project for
military purposes. Saudi Arabia, along with the rest of the GCC countries, was
reluctant to participate in any military operation. No one wants wars but with
the postponement of the clash with Iran, the situation has worsened and become
more dangerous.
Like Aleppo and Sanaa before them, the Saudi cities of Riyadh and Jeddah, and
Fujairah in the UAE, have found themselves in the crosshairs of Iranian
missiles, which were fired either directly by the regime’s forces or through its
proxy Houthi militias.
We know from Tehran’s pattern of behavior that its operations will continue and
it will not back down until the day comes when the targeted countries are forced
to confront Iran. Unfortunately, by then they will face a more difficult
situation, as happened in Yemen. A confrontation there with the Iranian-backed
Houthis was avoided until they took control of almost all of the country, and to
expel the militias and restore the legitimate government, the allied nations
were forced to liberate the country in a tough war.
Even with a clear course of events toward the clash, some portray the dangerous
situation of dealing with Iran with much disregard as if it were a joke —
blaming Donald Trump and/or John Bolton. Well, the real problem lies in Tehran:
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The region has endured many wars and
numerous terrorist attacks that were directed by Iran. Governments tried to
control the situation in a number of ways, all of which have failed. Since the
days of US President Jimmy Carter, when the clerics seized power in Iran, seven
successive presidents have entered the White House and tried in various ways to
contain, boycott, or reward Iran in the hopes of persuading it to abandon its
aggressive policies, all in vain.
Let us be realistic and deal with the problem as it is, not through conspiracy
theories and considering what is happening a US-Israeli project or a commercial
military project. Regardless of all the additional factors that are in play,
including foreign interests that benefit from the crisis, there is no longer any
question about the scale of the threat posed by Iran to the Gulf states and the
wider region.
Now, more than ever, there is no doubt about the intentions of the evil regime
in Tehran. The reality of what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen
means that the arguments from defenders of Tehran’s “good intentions,” and from
those who attack the supposed ill intentions of the regime’s opponents, have
been negated. We are faced with the reality that lies before us. We must
confront the regime in Tehran or else pay the heavy price of inaction and
misplaced overconfidence.
Preventing Iran from War
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019/
The atmosphere is the same, so are the tensions. Thirty-nine years ago, the
first Gulf War broke out between Iraq and Iran (1980-1988), followed by a second
war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991. The third was to topple
Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003.
These days, the region is experiencing political and military tension that is
clear to everyone, as if the clouds of a fourth war were hovering. This was
reinforced after the US sent the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and four
vessels of different origins, including two Saudis, were subjected to a serious
sabotage in the waters of the Arabian Gulf facing the Emirate of Fujairah. A US
investigation team reached an initial assessment that Iran or its agents were
behind the attack in which “explosive devices” were used. Shortly after, Iran,
through the Houthis, carried out a terrorist attack with a booby-trapped drone
on two major Saudi pipelines, which flow into the port of Yanbu in the west of
the Kingdom.
All the causes of tension and instability are linked to one country – Iran.
Riyadh has often pointed to its threats to the security and stability of the
region. When the Saudi oil pipelines come under terrorist attacks, not only the
Kingdom is concerned, but the entire world. Without the Kingdom’s ability to
control these attacks, Europe, the United States and Asia would be under the
pressure of oil prices going up to $200. Will they be able to cope with this
disaster without Saudi help?
Did the world need four years to acknowledge the error of being lenient with
Iran and its militias deployed in the region? Has the world only now understood
that Saudi Arabia’s decision not to accept the Iranian Houthi coup in Yemen was
a wise move, which prevented catastrophic consequences?
It is easy to criticize major decisions and it is very difficult to assert their
validity when they are taken. Time alone will recompense those who make the
difficult decisions and those who just watch. If the Kingdom had not taken a
strategic decision to wage war against the Iranian presence in Yemen, the
Iranian regime would have been overlooking the two most important straits in the
world: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Straits. Iran is now trapped.
It is true that it denied the attack on the four ships - although the
investigations pointed to its role - but its Houthi ally claimed responsibility
for the assault on the pipeline, and there is no doubt that neither the Houthis
nor Hezbollah would dare to commit such act of terrorism without prior Iranian
approval.
It is strange that Iran’s arrogance did not contain the strong US message of
sending the aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, whether for a short-term goal
by closely monitoring Iran’s behavior and its proxies, or a long-term aim of not
allowing the achievement of an Iranian nuclear project.
The Iranian regime has forgotten that dancing with Obama is different than
facing Trump.
But what are US forces doing in the Arabian Gulf? Why were the USS Abraham
Lincoln and B-52 bombers sent to the area? Claims by Iran’s friends that the US
is protecting the Gulf States are wrong; despite the fact that everyone is happy
when your ally is America, not Iran.
Washington is actually sending a strong warning to Iran that it would not
hesitate to defend its soldiers and interests from Iranian threats, in addition
to the desire of all to prevent Iran from reaching the brink of war that it
longs for.
For those who twist the facts - most of them in our region – here is the only
truth, with evidence and proof: No one is pushing for a war; only Iran is
seeking to ignite it and the rest wants to prevent it.
Tehran Apologists Should Change their Tune
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 18/2019
One of the problems with a dispassionate discussion of matters related to Iran
today is that the issue has become too ideological to allow rational, not to say
clinical, examination. Taking part in a televised panel the other evening to
discuss the “sabotage” of four ships in the UAE port of Fujairah I noted that
there was as yet no evidence to show who had been behind the operation. At the
same time, I noted that a leading daily in Tehran had urged the launching of
precisely such operations just a day before the Fujairah attack. Needless to say
I was attacked on all sides. Some claimed that by suggesting there was no
evidence regarding the authorship of the attack, I was trying to whitewash the
mullahs. Others claimed that by reminding people that such an operation had been
urged in the daily Kayhan, representing the views of “Supreme Guide” Ali
Khamenei, meant that I wished to incriminate Tehran to please “American
warmongers.”
In a series of subsequent media programs, a range of personalities, including
two former British ambassadors to Tehran, appeared as apologists for the mullahs
while two former British defense and foreign secretaries spoke as if they had
solid evidence that Tehran was involved. On the one had we have those who, not
always without reason, are suspicious of anything remotely connected with Islam,
even if that connection is spurious. On the other there are those who see the
Khomeinists on the side of angels simply because they are, or pretend to be,
anti-American, even if their anti-Americanism is little more than a pose.
In his twisted carpet-merchant’s style, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad
Zarif has acknowledged that. He says that if anyone notices the Islamic Republic
it is because its leaders are or pretend to be anti-American. In other words,
anti-Americanism upgrades a ramshackle and incompetent regime that is visibly
incapable of running a kebab-shop let alone a modern developing society. Zarif
says that without anti-Americanism we would, at best, “be something like
Pakistan”. And, he adds, who cares about Pakistan?
I am inclined to think that the British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn agreed
to work for the Revolutionary Guard television not only for money but mainly
because Iran is anti-American, exactly the same reason that turned him into a
mouthpiece for the Venezuelan regime.
At the other end of the spectrum we have France’s Marine Le Pen who, her dislike
of all things Islamic notwithstanding, acts as an apologist for the mullahs
because they are anti-American and, as a bonus, also hate the Jews. In the
United States, the whole thing is more complicated. The Islamic Republic has
become the cause-celebre of the Democrat Party and the bete-noire of the
Republicans.
At a private dinner in London the other night we listened to one of the US
Democrat Party’s grand seigneurs repeating almost word-by-word the nonsense that
the mullahs mouth every day in justifying their weird behavior. What mattered to
the grand seigneur was that the mullahs were challenging Donald J Trump, the
common foe. Not surprisingly, all Iran-controlled and financed lobbies in the US
have been reorganized as campaigning tools to help drive Trump out of the White
House. Where preferring the mullahs to the Americans seems difficult, the trick
is to cast the former as peace-lovers and the latter as warmongers. Thus Trump,
his National Security Adviser John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and
Brian Hook, the man supervising the Iran dossier, are depicted as the four
horsemen of the Apocalypse while Khamenei and his cohorts are portrayed as
messengers of peace and harmony.
Federica Mogherini, the lady who acts as the European Union’s foreign policy
spokesperson, whatever that means, never tires of pretending that the mullahs’
aggressive behavior is due to American “bullying.”
Well, let’s go back to Fujairah. I still don’t know for sure who did the
sabotage. But here is what Kayhan advised before the event: “Our solution is
clear. In response to the cost of economic sanctions imposed on us we have to
impose costs on the other side so that this war is no longer one-sided…. We have
a free hand in striking economic blows at the enemy. America’s allies in the
region, that is to say Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, are heavily dependent on
two things: oil and the glass towers they have built around the Persian Gulf and
the Red Sea… We must absolutely, hit the vital vein of those two countries, that
is to say their oil exports. And we can do this in the Indian Ocean and the Red
Sea. Such an operation will, without a doubt, force Saudi and Emirati leaders to
seek peace with Iran.”
And here is how the Revolutionary Guards news agency Tasnim’s news director Amin
Arabshahi jubilated about the Fujairah attack immediately after the incident:
“The port of Fujairah, the only vital route for exporting Saudi and Emirati oil,
has been set on fire. Only a few steps away from the Strait of Hurmuz, the sons
of Resistance have opened fire. Those who trade in fear should know that the war
has been going on for years and we are heading for its final phase.”
Corbyn, Mogherini, John Kerry and other apologists for the mullahs should
consider this. It is not enough to be anti-American or even anti-Trump to be
automatically classed on the side of the angels. It is possible to be
anti-American and anti-Trump and yet be a thoroughly obnoxious oppressor of the
people and warmonger. Apologists for the Tehran’s antediluvian regime do not
necessarily do it a service. By justifying its destructive behavior, they
encourage the continuation of policies that have led the Islamic Republic into a
deadly impasse which, if not breached, could lead to something worse. True
friends of the Islamic Republic, if not of Iran as a nation, should tell the
mullahs to dismount their high horses and understand that they cannot gallop
around imitating Saddam Hussein without suffering consequences.
Turkey: Many Celebrate the Burning of the Cathedral of Notre Dame
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/May 18/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14221/turkey-celebrate-fire-notre-dame
The official Facebook page of Turkey's pro-government daily, Sabah, for example,
is filled with praise for the destruction of the cathedral.
Sadly, Islamic supremacism not only targets the churches of Western Christians.
It targets Yazidi, Zoroastrian, Buddhist and Hindu temples too. These religious
minorities in the Muslim world are completely vulnerable, defenseless and
severely persecuted.... In many Muslim countries, Muslim-on-Muslim violence is
also quite commonplace. The Islamic hatred of different religious groups is not
about geography -- the East or the West. It is about religious faith.
What is heartbreaking is that arson and other forms of desecration of churches
have been going on in France and other countries on a regular basis, with barely
a mention by the media or Western governments.
French authorities were quick to rule out arson as the cause of the devastating
blaze at the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on April 15. Whatever the final
investigation reveals, many extremist Muslims in Turkey were equally swift in
their celebration of the fire that has demolished large parts of the historic
structure.
The official Facebook page of the pro-government daily, Sabah, for example, is
filled with praise for the destruction of the cathedral.
Reader comments included: "While it was burning, I prayed to God, saying, 'Burn
it even more, oh God, curse and ruin it.' You wonder why? One feels like
rejoicing over the burning of the colonialist, brutal France, which shed the
blood of about 1.5 million Muslims and then 1 million additional Muslims; which
beheaded them and exhibited their heads at museums; and which falsely accuses
Turkey of massacring Armenians.... What can one even say to France that mocks
our prophet and wants to change the verses in the Koran?"
"If you don't respect my mosques, my holy book, my prophet, then you experience
your punishment in a worse way. I am not sad at all."
"They've destroyed the monuments in the Middle East that belonged to us. Maybe
this will be a lesson to them."
"Why should I feel sad? They destroyed Baghdad; so many mosques and madrassahs
[Islamic schools] are gone. Let them [Christians] be in an even worse situation.
I hope such beautiful news comes from the Vatican, God willing, as soon as
possible."
"Who cares? So many Muslims were killed in New Zealand and are still killed. It
is just a building. They can build it again. Or maybe they themselves burned it.
Maybe they wanted to renovate it but could not get permission for that, so they
burned it."
Others called for the destruction of other non-Muslim monuments and nations:
"That is such a beautiful sight. May other places of icons meet the same fate."
"Send me the ashes. I will plant beans. I can spread the ashes underneath [the
beans].
"Let's grab a few pieces of wood. [The cathedral] hasn't been burned to ashes
completely yet. Let us help [the fire]..."
"May the whole of France burn down. They're enemies of Islam, enemies of
humanity."
"May [the cathedral] be reduced to ash. Then may a storm break out and make even
the ashes disappear, God willing."
Several described the fire as punishment for "crimes," such as the mosque
attacks in New Zealand, France's military actions in Muslim countries, the
French government's recent designation of April 24 as "a national day of
remembrance for the Armenian genocide" and the French intellectuals' 2018
manifesto calling to declare violent Koranic verses "obsolete".
There is so far no evidence at all that this fire was the result of Islamic
extremism. In general, however, if one tries to understand the theological basis
of the underlying hatred that is so often seen, it is hard not to ask what
extremist Muslims would do if they had enough power. After centuries of jihadist
behavior that are still culminating outspokenly religiously-motivated attacks
such as America's 9/11, Britain's 7/7, Spain's train bombings, Sri Lanka's
church bombings on April 21 and on and on, are we really supposed to believe
that it is it we who have genocidal motives or they? To many Muslims, it is
always the kuffar [non-Muslims] who are criminal, murderous and corrupt. To
them, Muslims are always innocent. Their understanding of history and current
events often seems wholly self-referential.
Imam Suleiman Hani, for instance, a hardline Islamic cleric from Michigan, USA,
claimed on his program in 2015 on Huda TV that the kuffar [non-Muslims] will
suffer the "abode of hellfire. ... This is what they gathered from their evil."
He stated that "the disbelievers, these are the evil people.... they will be
beaten and hammered and turned to dust and then returned back. They will be
given a bed of fire, full of darkness."
There are countless similar examples. Such views, sadly, are widespread -- and
still encouraged -- across the Muslim world.
Moreover, there are several verses in the Quran about Allah's hatred for
non-Muslims and the punishment that awaits them for their disbelief. The Quran,
for instance, tells Muslims to "fight in the way of Allah" (verse 2:190), "urge
the believers to battle" (verse 8:65), "kill them [disbelievers] wherever you
find them" (verse 2:191) and "fight those of the unbelievers who are near to you
and let them find in you hardness," (verse 9:123), among many other violent
verses.
While some other religious scriptures also have violent verses, those verses are
historical in nature, referring to a specific incident, and are descriptive;
rather than prescriptive. Also, as the author Bruce Bawer wrote:
Sometimes, when one points out these rules, people will respond: "Well, the
Bible says such-and-such." The point is not that these things are written in
Islamic scripture, but that people still live by them.
Many people evidently still regard these verses as divine instruction.
Unfortunately, it seems from the frequent cries of "Allahu Akbar," and various
Muslim opinion polls that many in the Muslim faith still support political
violence in the name of religion and sharia law.
Sadly, Islamic supremacism not only targets churches of Western Christians. It
targets Yazidi, Zoroastrian, Buddhist and Hindu temples too. These religious
minorities in the Muslim world are completely vulnerable, defenseless and
severely persecuted. Yet, their places of worship are seen by extremist Muslims
as symbols of "idol worship" that need to be destroyed. In many Muslim
countries, Muslim-on-Muslim violence is also quite commonplace; Sunni Muslim
extremists attack Shia mosques and Shia extremists target Sunni mosques. The
Islamic hatred of different religious groups is not about geography -- the East
or the West. It is about religious faith.
In line with this worldview, the pro-government Islamist newspaper, Yeni Akit,
headlined its gleeful report on the fire: "The famous Notre Dame Cathedral of
France burning furiously," then attributed it to France's recognition of the
"so-called 'Armenian genocide.'"
Other pro-government outlets, such as Haberturk and Gzt.com, implied that since
the Notre Dame Cathedral was unable to be conquered and Islamized by the Ottoman
Conqueror Sultan Mehmet, it eventually got destroyed as a result of the fire.
Targeting non-Muslim monuments has been a widespread Islamic practice since the
seventh century, regrettably rooted in the Koran and hadith to prevent shirk,
the worship of objects or anything other than Allah.
According to Dr. Bill Warner, founding president of the Center for the Study of
Political Islam:
"The language of Islam is dualistic. There is a division of humanity into
believer and kafir (unbeliever). Humanity is divided into those who believe
Mohammed is the prophet of Allah and those who do not.
"Kafir is an actual word the Koran uses for non-Muslims. It is usually
translated as unbeliever or infidel, but that translation is wrong. The word
unbeliever is neutral, while the attitude of the Koran towards unbelievers is
very negative. The Koran defines the Kafir as hated by Allah. A Muslim is never
the true friend of a Kafir. Kafirs can be enslaved, raped, beheaded, plotted
against, terrorized, and humiliated. A Kafir is not a full human.
"When you read the complete Islamic doctrine of Koran, Sira (the biography of
Mohammed), and the Hadith (the traditions of Mohammed), you will find that Islam
is fixated on the Kafir. Over half of the Koran is about the Kafir, not Muslims.
It is the stated purpose of the Islamic textual doctrine to annihilate every
Kafir by conversion, subjugation or death. Jihad can be waged against the Kafir."
It is therefore not surprising that radical Muslims in Turkey and elsewhere
celebrated at the sight of the Notre Dame Cathedral in flames. What is
heartbreaking is that arson and other forms of desecration of churches have been
going on in France and other countries for centuries, with barely a mention by
the media or any Western government.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone
Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
War With Iran? Count Us Out, Europe Says
Steven Erlanger, NYT/May 18/2019
BRUSSELS — With strong memories of the last catastrophic war in Iraq, Europeans
are united in opposing what many consider the United States’ effort to provoke
Iran into a shooting war. Yet, despite the strains in trans-Atlantic relations
in the Trump years, flat-out opposition to Washington remains an uncomfortable
place for European nations.
Initially, not even pro-American Britain would go along with the Trump
administration, with officials defending a senior British general in the
coalition fighting the Islamic State who said that there was no enhanced threat
from Iran in Iraq and Syria.
But that brought an American rebuttal, and soon the Europeans, reluctant to
confront Washington directly, softened the criticism. Britain officially rowed
back, saying that it now agreed with the Americans, while Germany and the
Netherlands suspended their troop training in Iraq, citing the American
warnings. (Germany subsequently said it was planning to resume the training
exercises.)
Window dressing aside, however, there was little doubt about where the Europeans
stood on the Iran issue.
“Every single European government believes that the increased threat we’re
seeing from Iran now is a reaction to the United States leaving the Iran nuclear
agreement and trying to force Iranian capitulation on other issues,” said Kori
Schake, a former Pentagon official who is now deputy director of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“They believe that the U.S. is the provocateur and they worry that the U.S. is
reacting so stridently to predictable Iranian actions in order to provide a
pretext for a U.S. attack on Iran,” Ms. Schake said.
European government officials say they believe that Mr. Trump does not want a
major war in the Middle East. But they also believe that his national security
adviser, John R. Bolton, does.Doug Mills/The New York Times
It is a far cry from the debate preceding the 2003 Iraq war, which “split Europe
in two,” said Tomas Valasek, the director of Carnegie Europe and a former Slovak
ambassador to NATO. “This is a case of all European governments saying to
Washington that this is insane, we shouldn’t be here, and it’s your fault that
we’re actually talking of war.”
For a supporter of the trans-Atlantic relationship, he added, “the last thing
you want to do is unify Europe on an anti-American basis, and that’s what Trump”
and his national security adviser, John R. Bolton, have done.
The Europeans are trapped between President Trump and Tehran, trying to keep
decent relations with Washington while committed to supporting the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal that Mr. Trump mocked and then abandoned.
Senior European government officials say they believe that Mr. Trump, as he said
on Thursday, does not want a major war in the Middle East. But they also believe
that Mr. Bolton does. They often cite a New York Times opinion article by Mr.
Bolton in 2015, when he was out of office, entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb
Iran.”
And European officials are baffled by Mr. Trump’s insistence that he simply
wants to force Iran into new negotiations. Why, they say, would Tehran, whose
supreme leader regards Washington as duplicitous in any event, concede or even
value any deal done with the president who just abandoned a nuclear deal so
painfully negotiated with the last American president?
“Why would they trust us now after Trump pulled the plug on the last thing they
negotiated with Washington?” Ms. Schake said.
The public position of European officials has been to urge “maximum restraint,”
as the European foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, put it. That was a
riposte to Washington’s stated policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran, including
punishing economic sanctions designed to block its international trade,
especially in oil, on which the economy depends.
Foreign ministers — including Britain’s Jeremy Hunt and Germany’s Heiko Maas —
have spoken about the dangers of escalation and accidental war.
“We are very worried about the risk of a conflict happening by accident with an
escalation that is unintended,” Mr. Hunt said.
Mr. Maas told German legislators that putting intense pressure on Iran added to
the risk of an unintended escalation. “What has happened in recent days — acts
of sabotage against ships or pipelines — are indications that these dangers are
concrete and real,” he said, referring to reports that four oil vessels were
recently attacked at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
While initially skeptical of American warnings of an increased threat to its
troops from Iran and its allies, most European officials now accept the American
concerns, even as they consider the response exaggerated and provocative.
Iran’s responses to American pressure were predicted by the Pentagon, Centcom
and American intelligence agencies, Ms. Schake said.
“So Europeans are exasperated that the U.S. wants them to snap into line for a
policy they believe is wrong, and with the consequences that they and the
Pentagon and U.S. intelligence all told the Trump administration it would
produce.”
No one should be surprised, she and others said, that Iran would use its own
leverage — including the restarting of uranium enrichment (still within the
limits of the nuclear deal), its militias, proxies and arms transfers — within
the region to respond to Washington in an asymmetric way.
“The Iranians may have walked into a Washington hard-liner trap,” said Jeremy
Shapiro, a former senior State Department official who is now research director
for the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Iran as usual is sending
messages and going up the escalator ladder one-eighth of a step at a time,
through proxies,” he said. “They’re following the script. Iranian and U.S.
hard-liners have a toxic interaction and feed off each other.”
In the first gulf war, in 1990-91, the United States led a broad multinational
coalition; in the second, in 2003, the European “coalition of the willing” was
essentially reduced to Britain and Poland.
Part of Europe’s skepticism is rooted in that 2003 war, when there were charges
of fake or exaggerated intelligence, which continue to haunt the reputations of
then-loyal European leaders, such as former Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain
and former President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland.
“Every European politician who supported George W. Bush was taken out and
effectively executed,” Mr. Shapiro said. “Even in the U.K., no way there can be
a repeat of that. If the U.S. policy is force, there will be no European
support.”
But the Trump administration — which has already strained relations with Europe
badly through unilateral moves over trade, climate change and relations with
Israel and Russia, let alone Iran — probably doesn’t much care what the
Europeans think, Mr. Shapiro said: “No one in the administration is expecting
much help from Europe over this.”
Still, he noted, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an effort to come to
Brussels and speak to European foreign ministers about Iran and American
assessments of enhanced threat. For internal administration debates, European
views will be taken into account, Mr. Shapiro said.
“If there is tacit support or even abstention,” he said, “that can be helpful in
the internal debates, to say, ‘The allies are with us or against us.’ ”
European officials consider the debate in Washington over Iran far from over,
and they want to do their best, as one official said, to support Mr. Trump in
his clear reluctance to get America involved in another messy war in the Middle
East.
*Alissa Rubin contributed reporting from Baghdad.
Pick up the phone, Rouhani!
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/May 18/2019
A few days ago, this newspaper published an editorial calling for surgical
strikes against Iran and its agents who recently attacked Saudi oil pipelines
and commercial ships in Fujairah. Incidentally, our editorial was followed by
military strikes against Houthi targets by the Saudi-led coalition to restore
the legitimate government in Yemen. It was also followed by news that the US has
obtained the approval of several Gulf countries to redeploy troops in the
region. On social media, there were many who criticized our position and labeled
us as warmongers. They also slammed the collective view of our top editors as
irresponsible. They wondered — in a one-sided manner — how one could call for a
Muslim country to attack another Muslim country during the month of Ramadan.
Putting aside the few commentators who had a genuine concern — as we do —
regarding a large-scale war erupting, much of the criticism is coming from
well-known pro-Iran and pro-Hezbollah propagandists.
One simply has to ask why these critics were silent when Iran and its agents
attacked Saudi Arabia. Not only is Saudi Arabia a Muslim country, it is the land
of the Two Holy Mosques. Surely, an attack on its soil — by a fellow Muslim
country — demanded severe condemnation.
Furthermore, why aren’t these supposed peace-lovers urging Iran to stop its
meddling and to take up the US offer of talks? Where were all these
critics when Houthi missiles fell near the holy city of Makkah, and in civilian
neighborhoods of Riyadh?
Saudi Arabia does not want a war. It has and will always work with the US and
other allies to try and avert it. However, Saudi Arabia — like any sovereign
country — also has the right to defend itself.
After all, Iranian Education Minister Mohammed Bathaee may very well say he
wants to sacrifice 14 million innocent Iranian schoolchildren as “martyrs”
should a war happen, but here in the Kingdom, we see it as our duty to protect
our children, not the other way around.
Of course, critics will say the Arab coalition has made mistakes in Yemen in
terms of civilian casualties. This is true, but these mistake were always
investigated, admitted and apologized for. It must be stressed that the same
cannot be argued for the malicious Houthi militias, whose leadership’s declared
policy is to attack civilians and airports. That said, the Kingdom is definitely
not perfect and has its flaws, but the reality is that today, there are no Arab
militias in Persian lands. However, the same cannot be said about Iran and its
agents in Arab countries. After all, it is Tehran’s declared policy to
destabilize Iraq, hijack Lebanon, sabotage Palestinian peace efforts and support
Syrian President Bashar Assad as he gasses and barrel-bombs his people. Hearing
what Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently said does not
suggest that his regime understands that the rope is tightening around its neck.
“Nobody can confront Iran,” said Zarif (whose name in Arabic means “cute”). Such
an attitude reminds us of Iraq under Saddam Hussein prior to the 2003 war. Of
course, we all know what fell upon Iraq because of this stubbornness and
shortsightedness. With the current sanctions, a collapsing economy and superior
foes, the Mullahs don’t stand a chance. Still, the Iranian regime has a golden
opportunity to avert a war at worst, or an economic disaster at best. It can
simply commit to not being a rogue state, stop supporting terror, recall its
militias and shut down its nuclear program. This will not only be beneficial for
Iran itself, but for the whole region and the world at large. So, for everyone’s
sake, let us hope President Hassan Rouhani picks up the phone and calls the
White House, before it is too late!
• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News