English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The Miracle Of Reviving Lazarus From the Grave
John 11/01-16: “Now a certain man was ill, Lazarus of Bethany, the village of Mary and her sister Martha. Mary was the one who anointed the Lord with perfume and wiped his feet with her hair; her brother Lazarus was ill. So the sisters sent a message to Jesus, ‘Lord, he whom you love is ill.’But when Jesus heard it, he said, ‘This illness does not lead to death; rather it is for God’s glory, so that the Son of God may be glorified through it.’Accordingly, though Jesus loved Martha and her sister and Lazarus, after having heard that Lazarus was ill, he stayed two days longer in the place where he was. Then after this he said to the disciples, ‘Let us go to Judea again.’The disciples said to him, ‘Rabbi, the Jews were just now trying to stone you, and are you going there again?’Jesus answered, ‘Are there not twelve hours of daylight? Those who walk during the day do not stumble, because they see the light of this world. But those who walk at night stumble, because the light is not in them.’After saying this, he told them, ‘Our friend Lazarus has fallen asleep, but I am going there to awaken him.’The disciples said to him, ‘Lord, if he has fallen asleep, he will be all right.’Jesus, however, had been speaking about his death, but they thought that he was referring merely to sleep. Then Jesus told them plainly, ‘Lazarus is dead. For your sake I am glad I was not there, so that you may believe. But let us go to him.’Thomas, who was called the Twin, said to his fellow-disciples, ‘Let us also go, that we may die with him.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 17-18/2020
Lebanon Confirms 9 New Virus Cases amid Alarming Tests in Akkar
Hasan: We Have Built Health and National Immunity against Virus
Hariri Hospital: 10 new positive cases including 9 repeated tests, 17 cases out 150 examinations of foreign workers
Seventeen coronavirus cases recorded in Akkar’s Al-Kaytaa
Rahi presides over Sunday Mass service in Bkirki
Beirut’s Metropolitan Greek Orthodox Archbishop, Elias Aoude presiding over Sunday Mass at St. George’s Cathedral: The Orthodox are excluded from serving their nation and rejected
Diab appeals to Lebanese citizens to adopt self-monitoring, assume responsibility: The world trusts us and our capabilities, cites our experience as a model for major countries
Lebanese Army: Israeli enemy forces shoot at a shepherd, wounding and arresting him
Tenenti to NNA: UNIFIL has opened an investigation into the shooting of the shepherd
Abdel Samad: We are making amendments to the media regulation project in line with advancement
Majzoub: I suggest canceling the high school exams
Darwish: Judiciary must repudiate political dependency
Jumblatt apologizes after breaking lockdown rules
Fahmi Issues Memo Detailing Reopening Rules
Bassil: President Won't Fall, Others Wrongly Betting that We're Weak
Israel Shoots, Nabs Shepherd in Kfarshouba Outskirts
IMF-Lebanon Talks Fettered by Disputes With Central Bank
Lebanese Authorities to Crack down on Violators of Maritime Property
Pragmatic whispers between Washington and Tehran?/Raghida Dergham/May 17/2020
Will the dollar shortage lead to medicinal shortage?/Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/May 17/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 17-18/2020
Canada's Statement on International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia
Israel’s 35th government is sworn into office
Holy Jewish site of Esther and Mordechai set ablaze in Iran - reports
Iran media: Israel 'cancerous' and a 'virus' after burning of Esther tomb
Rami Makhlouf Rejects Syria Regime Demand to Step Down From Mobile Operator
Moscow Seeks Serious Reforms in Syria, Criticizes Regime’s Intransigence
EU to Try to Head Off Israel Annexations
Palestinian Authority Declares Full Lockdown on Eid al-Fitr
ISIS Strikes ‘Baghdad Belt’
Germany Kicks Off as Europe Eases Curbs but Virus Marches On
Chinese Ambassador to Israel Found Dead at Home
Italy to Reopen Borders for EU Tourists in Early June


Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
 on May 17-18/2020
Lockdown Critics May Have Some Valid Points/Joe Nocera/Bloomberg/May 17/2020
The Arab System Between Citizenship and Failure of State!/Zuhair Al-Harthi/Asharq Al Awsat/May 17/2020
Coronavirus: China's Disappeared Heroes and the Silence of the West/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/May 17/2020
US needs help restricting Iran’s influence in Syria/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 17, 2020
Tensions rise as new Iraqi PM confronts Iran’s proxies/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 17, 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 17-18/2020
Lebanon Confirms 9 New Virus Cases amid Alarming Tests in Akkar

Naharnet/May 17/2020
Lebanon on Sunday confirmed nine new COVID-19 coronavirus cases, which raises the country's tally to 911, the Health Ministry said. It said five of the nine cases were recorded among the residents and the other four among repatriated expats. It added that 17 tests will be repeated for confirmation as the National News Agency said the 17 suspected cases were recorded in the Akkar town of Jdeidet al-Qaytaa after 124 tests were made. “This issue has created a state of general health mobilization in the governorate and at the Health Ministry,” NNA added. The head of the epidemiological surveillance department at the ministry, Dr. Nada Ghosn, will arrive in the afternoon at the Halba government hospital to assess things on the ground, the agency said.

Hasan: We Have Built Health and National Immunity against Virus

Naharnet/May 17/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced Sunday that Lebanon has built “health and national immunity” against the coronavirus pandemic. “We cannot move from lockdown to normal life except through a transitional period, which we are currently going through,” Hasan said during an inspection visit to the state-run hospital in Rashaya. He noted that over the recent period, the country “gained time, upped the readiness of state-run hospitals and built health and national immunity against the virus at the highest levels.”“We have allowed the use of rapid tests in campaigns across the various regions,” he added. “If we acquire gradual immunity against the coronavirus, that will be good, and what's needed at the moment is to abide by general mobilization and make gradual steps ahead of restoring normalcy,” Hasan went on to say.

Hariri Hospital: 10 new positive cases including 9 repeated tests, 17 cases out 150 examinations of foreign workers
NNA/May 17/2020
In its daily report on the latest developments of the novel Coronavirus, the Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced on Sunday, that out of 219 laboratory tests conducted today, ten new Covid-19 cases have been detected, including nine repeated tests, while the remaining tests came out negative.
“The hospital received a survey of examinations carried out by the Ministry of Health of 150 foreign workers who were in close contact, whereby 17 tested positive,” the report added. It also indicated that the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases infected with the virus that are currently present in the Hospital's isolation area has reached 27 cases, noting that it has admitted 27 cases suspected to be infected with the virus who were transferred from other hospitals. Meanwhile, the hospital report stated that four infected cases have recovered today after their PCR examination tests turned out negative in both times, thus bringing the total number of full recoveries to 177 cases. “All those infected with the virus are receiving the necessary care in the isolation unit, and their condition is stable," the hospital report added. It also indicated that more information on the number of infected cases on all Lebanese territories can be found in the daily report issued by the Ministry of Public Health. In conclusion, the Hospital reminded that "the Corona Virus Contact Center for emergency response and knowledge of test results, operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week including public holidays, and can be reached through the number 01-820830 or through the WhatsApp contact service 76-979610."

Seventeen coronavirus cases recorded in Akkar’s Al-Kaytaa
NNA /May 17/2020
Seventeen coronavirus cases out of 124 tests have been recorded in Akkar’s Jdeidet El-Kaytaa after the patients' PCR examination tests turned out positive, the crisis cell of the Municipality of Jdeidet El-Kaytaa said in a statement on Sunday.
The Municipality urged people to remain watchful and vigilant and stay at home.

Rahi presides over Sunday Mass service in Bkirki
NNA/May 17/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros Rahi, presided over Sunday Mass service in Bkirki this morning. In his sermon, Rahi urged the Lebanese to invest their lands in agriculture, as well as in other sectors. "Agriculture has become a basic necessity today because of the increase in unemployment, poverty, food prices, and the decrease in incomes accompanied by a decrease in purchasing power," Rahi said. He declared that "the church puts its lands and capabilities at the disposal of society for investment in agriculture and food security, especially since Lebanon depends on importing 70% of its food needs."In this context, the Patriarch called on the Lebanese state to support the agricultural sector as a cornerstone of the national economy, protect it from external speculation, and export its surplus. Finally, Rahi criticized the practices of some judges and asked: "Where are these eccentric practices coming from: accusing and arresting at the same time without hearing the accused? Creating files with an arrest warrant? Is our system transformed from a democratic system that guarantees civil and legal rights to a police and dictatorship one?

Beirut’s Metropolitan Greek Orthodox Archbishop, Elias Aoude presiding over Sunday Mass at St. George’s Cathedral: The Orthodox are excluded from serving their nation and rejected
NNA/May 17/2020
Beirut’s Metropolitan Greek Orthodox Archbishop, Elias Aoude, presided over Sunday Mass service at St. George’s Cathedral in Central Beirut this morning, during which he affirmed that the Greek Orthodox Sect has always called for justice and equality, respect for the constitution and the application of laws, as well as the adoption of accountability, reward and punishment, and a transparent mechanism in state appointments. “However, instead of taking advantage of the energies of our children and treating them like other people of this country, they have been ignored over the days…Perhaps, because they do not raise their voices or resort to methods that do not resemble them. Silence appears to be weak in the time of empty squawking, and civilized behavior is considered a regression,” the Archbishop said in his sermon. “Justice is not to distinguish between one citizen and another, and one sect and another,” he added. “Our children have the right to play their national role in all fields. Civilized behavior is part of our values, but our Church, headed by His Beatitude John X, up to its officials and people, expresses unanimous rejection of these practices against its children and the injustice and prejudice that follows them,” Aoude emphasized. “Until citizens of this country unite as one people, with one vision, do not exclude anyone from responsibilities, and adopt a single standard in appointments that applies to everyone,” urged the Archbishop.“Let your vision of the state be clear and transparent, centered on correcting the situation, fighting corruption, tackling the economy’s collapse, the lira’s collapse, the waste problems, water and electricity, and creating job opportunities that allow citizens to escape poverty, hunger and despair. Let your aim be to unite the Lebanese people around this vision and push them all to support you instead of rejecting them and provoking their anger and resentment,” Aoude corroborated, addressing the state’s authorities.

Diab appeals to Lebanese citizens to adopt self-monitoring, assume responsibility: The world trusts us and our capabilities, cites our experience as a model for major countries
NNA/May 17/2020
In his delivered speech this evening following the ministerial committee’s meeting to follow-up on the Corona virus developments, Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced that "the country will be partially reopened" starting tomorrow, based on the five-stage plan, and that the Minister of Interior and Municipalities will announce the details later today. “I call on the Lebanese people to observe self-monitoring, take responsibility and not risk their lives, those of their families and those of their compatriots,” he said. “Lebanon has managed to remain at the stage of containing the virus spread since the beginning of the pandemic, and our goal is to remain at this stage,” Diab underscored. “We are going through a dangerous and very sensitive period, since the coronavirus crisis will last a very long time and could possibly threaten the lives of our loved ones. Furthermore, the second wave could be worse than the peak of the first wave,” cautioned the Prime Minister.“We realize that continuing the lockdown has serious economic and social repercussions. We are trying, as much as we can, to minimize these repercussions,” he went on. “Consequently, I announce today the reopening of the country as of tomorrow, based on the five-stage plan. This will require additional collective sacrifices and commitment, while quarantining neighbourhoods and regions with high infection rates,” stated Diab, urging all Lebanese to deal with the country’s reopening very carefully, and to partner with the government in assuming responsibility and protecting society from collapse. “I am confident that we will manage to protect our people and our country, despite major and heavy concerns. The world trusts us and our capabilities, and talks about the achievement we have made so far in the face of the Coronavirus. The world is citing our experience as a model to follow by bigger countries,” he proudly asserted.
In his detailed address, the Prime Minister said:
“Dear fellow Lebanese,
I know very well that you all want to return to normal life, to engage in business as usual, to visit one another as before, to resume the academic year, to celebrate social occasions and to hold tight family and friends whom you have missed.
Coronavirus epidemic has disrupted our day-to-day life, our business and our social relationships. One cannot easily believe that a virus which cannot be seen with the naked eye controls today’s world. But this is the truth. Yes. An invisible virus is imposing a different rhythm onto people's lives around the globe.
This looks more like science fiction stories and movies ... but it is a fact.
Since February 21, less than three months ago, we have been overwhelmed by anxiety: How can we preserve the lives of the Lebanese without incurring losses in all aspects of life? Since our priority is to protect people’s lives, we have chosen to jump past all calculations.
The lives of our fathers and mothers, our brothers and sisters, our children, our families and our loved ones are way more precious than education, economics and trade...
Our humanity has triumphed over materialism. This is how the Lebanese have always been, and in this way they overcame crucial dangers in the past.
Leading a meaningful life and loving life are features that characterize us as Lebanese people. This is true. However, our love for the hustle and bustle of life cannot be at the expense of our own life and of that of persons we love.
We have succeeded in the face of a danger with minimal losses A week ago, we were about to get in trouble due to the lack of commitment in some places.
Unfortunately, some are risking their lives and are taking lightly the lives of others.
When we launched the plan to reopen the country on April 24, I warned against the dangers of ending the lockdown and its disastrous consequences for our country, for fear of a second wave of the Coronavirus epidemic.
We have repeatedly warned against the possibility of losing what we have successfully achieved in terms of containing the spread of Covid-19 if we do not abide by prevention measures, and of having to move from a lockdown to another.
The risks of lifting the lockdown can take us back to the early stages of the epidemic.
Late last week, we started noticing an increase in the number of infected people and the appearance of new multi-pronged clusters in various parts of the country. Over a period of ten days, the number of new internal cases has increased almost five times, compared to ten previous days. The daily average infection rate has also increased compared to the levels found before the re –opening. Accordingly, we have decided to impose a full 4-day lockdown.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health teams were conducting intensive testing in addition to tracking and isolating all cases.
Lebanon has managed to remain at the stage of containing the virus spread since the beginning of the pandemic, and our goal is to remain at this stage, though many countries have moved from the stage of inability to contain the pandemic to the mitigation stage, due to their inability to control the epidemic outbreak and the high number of infections. Nevertheless, they are still very careful and vigilant in lifting the lockdown.
Today we are still concerned about the high number of infections for several reasons, including:
-First, we have managed to overcome the first peak after tiring and painstaking work during two months of social isolation;
-Second, the economic and financial situation has been exacerbated by the lockdown.
All this leads to the lax implementation of the measures required, such as social distancing and prevention, whereas it is necessary to remain cautious in order to triumph over the epidemic. Besides, the third repatriation phase has started. After evaluating the second phase, we have adopted more stringent measures to reduce the proportion of inbound positive cases from expatriates by imposing a PCR test in some countries, strengthening the internal follow - up of returnees and repeating the PCR test fourteen days after their return.
We are going through a dangerous and very sensitive period, since coronavirus crisis will last a very long time and could possibly threaten the lives of our loved ones. Furthermore, the second wave could be worse than the peak of the first wave.
We realize that continuing the lockdown has serious economic and social repercussions. We are trying, as much as we can, to minimize these repercussions.
Consequently, I announce today the reopening of the country as of tomorrow, based on the five-stage plan. This will require additional collective sacrifices and commitment, while quarantining neighbourhoods and regions with high infection rates.
We have to remain vigilant, maintain social distancing and follow prevention and protection guidelines in order to safeguard our society and preserve our sacrifices.
I urge all Lebanese to deal with the reopening of the country very carefully, to partner with us in assuming responsibility and to accompany the State in protecting the society from collapse. We do not want this stage to turn into a nightmare, and we will not accept that all Lebanese pay the price for some irresponsible and indifferent behaviours.
I call on Lebanese people to observe self-monitoring, take responsibility and not risk their lives, those of their families and those of their compatriots.
This commitment will inevitably lead to triumph over the virus, and thus to the continuation of the following stages of the reopening plan.
Do not underestimate the risk, so that we do not all regret it when regrets will then serve no purpose. Tomorrow we will partially re-open the country, and His Excellency the Minister of Interior and Municipalities will announce the details today. His Excellency the Minister of Education will also announce the measures related to the academic year.
Let us all cooperate, and let everyone be a partner in protecting the country: military and security services, municipalities, owners of commercial enterprises, and citizens ... Let us all take responsibility for ourselves and successfully move to the third stage.
I am confident that we will manage to protect our people and our country, despite major and heavy concerns. The world trusts us and our capabilities, and talks about the achievement we have made so far in the face of the Coronavirus. The world is citing our experience as a model to follow by bigger countries, as the Washington Post did in its article today: “When it comes to coronavirus response, superpowers may need to study smaller nations, such as the Lebanese State.”
May God help us all, for the sake of Lebanon and its people.
Long Live Lebanon!”
{Premiership Press Office}

Lebanese Army: Israeli enemy forces shoot at a shepherd, wounding and arresting him
NNA/May 17/2020
In an issued statement by the Lebanese Army Command - Orientation Directorate this evening, it indicated that the Israeli enemy forces opened fire at Mohammad Noureddine Abdel-Azim, of Syrian nationality, as he was grazing his cattle nearby the Rwaysat al-Alam site in Kfarshuba hilltops at 15:00 hours today. The shepherd was wounded and arrested by the Israeli enemy forces and taken inside occupied Palestine, the statement added.
The incident is being pursued in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, the statement concluded.

Tenenti to NNA: UNIFIL has opened an investigation into the shooting of the shepherd
NNA/May 17/2020
UNIFIL Spokesperson Andrea Tenenti announced, in a statement to the National News Agency on Sunday, that the international peacekeeping forces have opened an investigation into the shooting of a shepherd in the vicinity of Kfarshuba, and headed to the area to determine the circumstances and location of the incident, including the Blue Line. Tenenti indicated that the UNIFIL soldiers in the area heard the shooting, affirming that the UNIFIL Head of Mission and Commander-in-Chief, Major General Stefano Del Cole, "started his contacts with the parties and urged them to exercise restraint," stressing that "the situation in the region is now calm." "The Israeli army informed UNIFIL today that a person - who was stated to have crossed the Blue Line in the vicinity of Kfarshuba - came under fire from the Israeli forces stationed in the area. The Israeli army took this person to hospital for treatment,” Tenenti said.
He added that according to the Lebanese local authorities, this person is a shepherd of Syrian origin. “Immediately, the Head of the UNIFIL Mission and its Commander-in-Chief, Major General Stefano Del Cole, began contacting the parties and urged them to exercise restraint,” Tenenti confirmed, adding that the UNIFIL soldiers in the area heard the shooting. Tenenti reiterated that UNIFIL has opened an investigation into the incident, assuring that the situation in the region is now tranquil.

Abdel Samad: We are making amendments to the media regulation project in line with advancement
NNA/May 17/2020
Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad Najd, affirmed during an interview with LBC TV Channel this morning, that efforts are currently pinned on making amendments to the media regulation project law.
“We are in the context of developing amendments that are in line with this advancement, but pursuant to the principle of transparency, because we consider that any rule requires partnership and we cannot adopt any decision individually, especially if the issue is related to the media and media outlets, and to people who will use this law and join under its framework; hence, it is necessary that they have an opinion on this topic," Abdel Samad asserted.
"We consider that, on one hand we have a strategic plan for public media that we propose to the cabinet and later to the parliamentary committees, and this plan should be an integral part of the media law that should include the media in general; and at the same time, we have the opinions of the people who will use this law. Therefore, it is necessary to take their opinion into account, namely the media outlets, electronic website owners, legal media professionals, specialists and experts in this field,” the Minister corroborated.
She referred to the continuity of governments’ work and efforts, whereby every minister in every mandate has a fingerprint in the media. “Any effort we make is not from scratch, but is an accumulation of previous efforts, and former Minister Melhem Riachi had a very significant role and many projects that were pioneering and distinct with regards to the public media, the Information Ministry and the Media Law…We have reached the stage of the Administration and Justice, whereby the law proposal is now with the Administration and Justice Committee, and of course the opinion of the former ministers of information have been taken in consideration, and views have been included in the law proposal, so as not to erase previous efforts but rather build on them,” Abdel Samad emphasized.
On the media plan and law, the Information Minister said: "From the very first day, we have supported the free media and the need to avoid domesticating or imposing any censorship on it, because we consider that the word of the journalist should be as free as his opinion, and this matter is enshrined in the constitution. This freedom should be responsible and respect the opinion of the other, without doing him any harm or to the state and its status, and there should be no false news or news that leads to incitement or intimidation or harm to national or social security.”
She added: “The data must be accurate and the information must be correct. With social media, the citizen no longer distinguishes between the media and the blogger, which sometimes does injustice to the media.”
“We are against the idea of imprisonment for any media person, but if they wish in this proposal of law to keep these provisions, said provisions must be placed within very narrow controls,” she underlined, stressing that an expressed word or opinion must not lead to jail.
“We must search within the framework of preserving and strengthening this sector, and maintaining a free opinion and free word, since for long we have been the platform for a liberal media, and we must preserve our distinction in this field, especially with the presence of many individuals and outlets expressing their opinion. This word, which should not lead to imprisonment, can no longer be suppressed," the Minister maintained.
She also stressed that "there should be no political guardianship of the media, but rather the media must be free and addressing the public, conveying the needs of society without any restrictions by the state."
Additionally, Abdel Samad highlighted "the necessity of having a unified platform for the integrated public media, that is, radio, television and news agency, and the country's private websites and social media accounts, and rendering media outlets within one institution, provided that it has a communication role with the government, through the Minister of State for Communication with a zero budget.”
She noted herein that “the basis of his work [State Minister for Communication] shall be to communicate with the public and the government, as well as its official spokesperson, based on a rectification by the Prime Minister in accordance with Article 64 of the Constitution.”
Abdel Samad moved on to indicated that she “separates between her role as Information Minister when comes to the media, and her role when speaking in the name of the government and reading out its decisions, authorized by Prime Minister Hassan Diab according to the Constitution and Article 64.”
“Populism is not our goal in the cabinet, but rather to deliver a message outside the Council of Ministers, and if I have any objection or stance, I voice it within the institution to which I belong…When the decision is made, it becomes binding to the entire government, and therefore I cannot say that I do not want to abide by said decision. It is possible, of course, that I give my personal opinion or the opinion of my ministry on a specific issue, but I do not deviate from the decision that was taken either by consensus or unanimously,” Abdel Samad explained.
Over appointments in the National Media Council, the Minister deemed that changing the Council is a necessity, adding “We are about to fundamentally change the structure, and cooperation exists to speed up, endorse and issue the necessary laws.” As for appointments in Tele-Liban, Abdel Samad stated that she will not breach the sectarian balance in the TV Station, while pointing to the urgent need to appoint a board of directors. She hoped that after approving the amendments put forward at the level of the law and the restructuring of the Ministry, a new national council and a new management for the Lebanese Television Station will see the light.

Majzoub: I suggest canceling the high school exams
NNA/May 17/2020
Higher Education Minister, Tarek Al-Majzoub, announced, in a statement from the Governmental Serail on Sunday, that he has proposed "canceling the 2020 round of high school exams in all branches, based on specific regulations and completing the school year.""All students are promoted to the higher grade according to regulations, and for universities we will present a special mechanism for distance education," Majzoub said. He also announced the postponement of the re-opening of schools and specialized centers for people with special needs until a date to be determined by the Education Ministry.
"Preserving people's lives is a priority, and we will make up for what we lost during the upcoming academic year," confirmed Majzoub.

Darwish: Judiciary must repudiate political dependency

NNA /May 17/2020
“We count on the judicial body, which we previously called upon to stay clear of political dependency, and to reflect the formula of impartiality and credibility that it represents. Today we emphasize, once again, the need to separate the judiciary and achieve its independence, especially with the opening of files of corruption and transgressions that have gone too far," tweeted MP Ali Darwish on Sunday.

Jumblatt apologizes after breaking lockdown rules
NNA/May 17/2020
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, appologized, via his Twitter account, to the Lebanese for violating lockdown rules put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19. "Today I violated the lockdown orders. I went from Mukhtara to Beirut, where I felt very embarrassed when I saw a security forces' checkpoint in Khalde area, who were very polite," Jumblatt said. "I apologize for this behavior in these difficult times, where national mobilization must be respected to contain the epidemic and the security forces are doing their best in this regard," he added.

Fahmi Issues Memo Detailing Reopening Rules

Naharnet/May 17/2020
Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi on Sunday issued a memo detailing the rules that will followed as the country reopens its economy on Monday following a four-day shutdown over an uptick in coronavirus cases. According to the memo, the night curfew will begin at 7pm and vehicles whose license plates end in an odd digit will be allowed to operate on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays while those whose plates end in an even digit (including zero) will be allowed to move on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. It was not immediately clear whether any vehicles will be allowed to operate on Sundays. Most private sector businesses and professions will meanwhile be allowed to operate until 6pm or 7pm while the public sector will operate in a 50% capacity. And while restaurants and cafes will be allowed to operate in a 50% capacity and without the possibility of serving shisha, all educational institutions, sport clubs and courts, gyms, beaches, seaside corniches, public parks, malls, cinemas, gambling halls, nightclubs and pubs will remain closed.

Bassil: President Won't Fall, Others Wrongly Betting that We're Weak
Naharnet/May 17/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Sunday snapped back at the FPM's critics, especially Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh, and stressed that President Michel Aoun “will not fall.”“The president will not fall, unless he wants to resign, but certainly it is not General Aoun who would do so,” Bassil said at a press conference. Apparently referring to Franjieh's latest scathing attack on Aoun and the FPM, Bassil said: “We are not in a personal feud with anyone. We're concerned with addressing people's issues and we care about causes, not individuals.”“We are ready for any accord step to immunize salvation, unless the other rejects it because they are wrongly betting that we are weak,” he added. “Some political parties attack us in public and send us emissaries secretly. We publicly tell them: you attack us verbally whenever you feel that your interests are threatened should the truth come out. Our problem with you is not personal but have to do with the politics and system you have set up. It bankrupted the country and you don't want to abandon it,” Bassil went on to say. Referring to Franjieh's latest claim that there are no gas or oil reserves in Lebanon, Bassil said: “Some politicians' statement, regardless of their spite, might be linked to leaks or requests.”“We're against the policy of making banks lose all their assets, because people would lose their deposits this way. He noted that global oil giants Novateck, ENI and Total did not come to Lebanon “for the sake of the FPM.” “They would not have paid over $100 million in investments for our sake if they don't have chances to reap promising revenues,” he pointed out. He added: “We have comprehensive proposals, we suggest solutions to Lebanon's crisis on daily basis and we're not seeking sabotage as others.”In another jab at Franjieh in connection with the row over the counterfeit fuel scandal Bassil said “corruption drained the state's institutions and finances as well as people's deposits, so how can we remain silent or refrain from confronting it?”“I'm not talking to start a political problem with anyone, but what can I do if they considered themselves to be concerned?” he said. As for the country's economic and financial crises, Bassil urged the government to “rein in inflation, limit people's losses, impose a unified exchange rate on money changers, jail those manipulating the black market and pay compensations, albeit partial, to employees incurring losses from the new price.”“We are a country of freedoms and it is based on a free economic system. The same as the freedoms of belief, thought, expression and movement, it is unacceptable to harm the freedom of economy,” Bassil added. As for Lebanon's chronic electricity problem, Bassil said the only solution is to have 24/24 power supply. “If the electricity plan does not get launched this year, the Lebanese will be plunged into darkness, because there won't be sufficient electricity subsidization in the coming budgets,” he warned.

Israel Shoots, Nabs Shepherd in Kfarshouba Outskirts
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/May 17/2020
An Israeli patrol on Sunday shot and wounded Syrian shepherd Mohammed Noureddine Abdul Azim in the outskirts of the Lebanese border town of Kfarshouba before abducting him into Israel, Lebanon's National News Agency reported. The Israeli army meanwhile confirmed that “troops spotted a suspect who crossed the Blue Line from Lebanon into Israeli territory," referring to the U.N.-demarcated border line. "The suspect was injured from (army) fire and is being evacuated to a hospital for medical treatment in Israel," it said. It added that the incident occurred after the man crossed from Lebanon into the occupied Shebaa Farms. Israel says the enclave is part of the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed. The U.S. is the only country to have recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan. Lebanon and Syria say Shebaa Farms belong to Lebanon, while the United Nations says the area is part of Syria and that Damascus and Israel should negotiate its final status. The Lebanese-Israeli frontier has seen tensions rise in recent weeks between Israel and Hizbullah. In April, an Israeli drone fired on a truck carrying Hizbullah fighters in Syria near the border with Lebanon. No one was hurt. Two days later, Israel accused Hizbullah of "provocative" acts, including attempts to breach the border. Israel and Hizbullah fought a 34-day war in 2006 to a stalemate. Earlier this month the Lebanese military detained five Sudanese citizens who had crossed into Israel.

IMF-Lebanon Talks Fettered by Disputes With Central Bank
Beirut- Ali Zeineddine/Asharq Al Awsat/May 17/2020
The first round of talks between experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Lebanese officials has unveiled that the public dispute between Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh left a bad impression on the international organization, according to observers and businessmen. The IMF has never witnessed similar divergences between the executive and monetary authorities throughout its cooperation with many countries. “There are Lebanese qualitative gaps that would negatively affect talks with the qualified international team,” observers said. Those gaps emanate from the dispute between Diab’s government and Salameh over a government reform plan, proposed two weeks ago to save the country from its grave financial and economic crisis. During current talks with the IMF, Lebanon seeks $10 billion in loans, in addition to rapid aid of $900 million dollars, according to what Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni told Asharq Al-Awsat this week. The newspaper learned that IMF officials have expanded the specter of their contacts to include current and former Lebanese officials in crucial sectors such as the monetary authority, the banking sector, and some independent experts. The IMF officials are particularly inquiring about the liberalization of the Lebanese lira exchange rate, in addition to the proposed mechanisms for the restructuring of the Central bank and the banking apparatus. The financial institution is also testing the State’s seriousness in confronting smuggling via illegal crossings. Observers noticed that the Lebanese team, headed by Wazni, was not equally convinced of the government’s economic plan. Salameh announced he would not personally attend talks with the IMF, but delegated a team to represent him. Meanwhile, the Banking Association strongly rejected the government’s plan and said it was currently preparing an alternative, which it would send later to the IMF. The observers also noticed a downsized representation of the banking sector during talks with the IMF. They said the government’s attempts to contain the sector were materialized with recent official statements uncovering plans to decrease the number of commercial banks to around half. Chairman of the Banking Control Commission of Lebanon (BCCL) Samir Hammoud, (whose legal term ended weeks ago) told Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon should have a national comprehensive vision to solve the current crisis, including a clear approach on the financial, economic, and banking situation. “This plan should not seek to cut down from depositors’ accounts, but to work on the continuity of financing the debilitated economy,” Hammoud said.

Lebanese Authorities to Crack down on Violators of Maritime Property
Beirut – Paula Astih/Asharq Al Awsat/May 17/2020
Lebanon launched last week an operation to tackle violations of maritime properties, which are expected to bring millions of dollars to the state’s treasury.
Security forces began summoning violators, while all illegal properties would be shut within a week after the end of the four-day total lockdown imposed over the coronavirus outbreak. The move came upon an order by State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat to stop all maritime properties, whose owners did not pay taxes arising from the settlement of their status, and all those who failed to meet the legal conditions for the settlement. Invested public maritime areas from the north to the south are estimated at around 5 million square meters, including more than 2.5 million unlicensed square meters. The General Directorate of Transport estimates that if licensed and unlicensed entities pay the required taxes and fees, the annual revenues would reach LBP28 billion (about $18 million based on the official exchange rate). The file of property violations began during the 1975-90 civil war. The period witnessed the largest systematic misappropriation that affected the maritime property in particular. As a result of this chaos, the shore area receded with the end of the war from about 220 km to no more than 40 km. In the 1990s, the Directorate of Geographical Affairs at the Ministry of Works prepared the Marine Violations Project, which listed the names of violators, the types of violations and their uses. The list showed that those involved in the file included citizens, politicians, diplomats, ministries, mosques, churches and political parties.

Pragmatic whispers between Washington and Tehran?
Raghida Dergham/May 17/2020
Last week, an optimistic reading emerged of the US-Iranian dynamic holding that it is heading in the direction of de-escalation and accords based on subtle hints in the Gulf and Iraqi arenas. But perhaps this is closer to being wishful thinking, because what is happening does not suggest a rapprochement, according to sources connected to both sides. Early next week, most likely on Monday, two important meetings will be held. The first will convene high-level decision-makers in Washington to discuss the Iranian question from a number of angles, including the option of carrying out pre-emptive military strikes to prevent Tehran from carrying out attacks Washington believes the Iranians are planning. The second meeting, according to sources, will convene high-level IRGC commanders, including the successors of Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani. Interestingly, the meeting will reportedly focus on Lebanon and Hezbollah’s domination over its political and economic future, and tackle the situation in Iraq, another vital arena for the Iranian regime. Lebanon and Iraq are absolute priorities for Tehran, which wants the two countries to remain in the Iranian orbit at any cost and by any means. In short, the coming weeks will not bring a breakthrough in US-Iranian relations, rather the opposite, with looming escalations, although we do not know whether that would take the form of pre-emption or retaliation.
Iraq was the source of the emerging optimism after Mustafa al-Kadhimi was chosen by a parliamentary majority to become the next prime minister, with regional, American, European, and Russian blessing. Some have cited certain changes in the Iraqi scene, including the removal of a giant portrait of Qassim Soleimani near the airport where he was assassinated, as evidence of a relaxed Iranian grip on Iraq, or as an implicit signal of de-escalation from Iran to the US.
In a phone call with Mr Kadhimi, President Donald Trump said Iraq was important to regional and international stability, and said the US stood ready to provide economic aid to Baghdad. In turn, Mr Kadhimi said Iraq was keen to have the best possible relations with the US.
The implicitly agreed denouement in Iraq – if that is what really happened and not a development that took place without Iran’s consent – does not mean that a radical shift has taken place in Iran’s policy in Iraq or vis-à-vis the US presence there, because the Iranian regime would never give up Iraq to the US.
According to sources close to Iran, the view of the Iranian leadership is that this new government will be a transitional one, a “temporary solution”. In the meantime, Iraq remains vulnerable to destabilization and will remain a fragile arena, so long that the US-Iranian conflict has not been settled whether in the direction of accords or in the direction of one side defeating the other in Iraq.
But Lebanon is a different matter. In the Iranian calculus, Lebanon is a liquid asset, as long as Hezbollah dominates it. The Iranian regime is therefore not willing to back down in Lebanon, and is ready for any measures to guarantee its continued hold over this country, through its Hezbollah surrogate.
This does not mean that Lebanon is more important to Iran than Iraq. However, Lebanon is less complicated for Iran, even though it shares a border with Israel. There is a known margin of agreements, red lines, security zones, and buffer strips manned by the UNIFIL between Hezbollah and Israel. Moreover, there is now another buffer zone guaranteed by Russia between Israel and Iran in the Golan Heights, with the implicit consent of the regime in Damascus.
The US positions on Lebanon are not entirely clear. What is clear however is that Lebanon is a secondary concern for Washington, seen only through the prism of fighting Hezbollah. Recently, the terror designation of the Lebanese group has expanded into more European countries, with US high-level sources insisting such approach is effective alongside sanctions on Hezbollah and its allies, cracking down on its global operations and networks, and pressure on European countries to refrain from providing economic aid to Lebanon as long as its government continues to fail to adopt radical reforms that include ending Hezbollah’s domination over the airport, ports, and border crossings with Syria.
The complacency of Lebanon’s leaders, parties, and financial and banking institutions vis-à-vis corruption and nepotism even as Beirut appeals to the world for aid has prompted the UK former minister of state for the Middle East Alistair Burt to say to the Lebanese: “Sort out the corruption and get your economy sorted and stop running to other people… the solutions have got to be in the hands of those who are governing in Lebanon those who aspire to govern and ultimately the issue of Hezbollah can't be ducked and that's got to be tackled.”
Mr Burt spoke at the second e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute, alongside Arab League former secretary general Amr Moussa, Russian Middle East expert Vitaly Naumkin, and Admiral Robert Harward, former deputy commander of the US CENTCOM and current chairman of Lockheed Martin. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DmS0go4uBk&feature=youtu.be )
Mr Naumkin said the political and economic situation was bad but that Iran must not be the one to blamed, or demonized. For his part, Mr Harward was more explicit, saying: “It's a recurring. We've seen this play before we've seen this play over and over. We can’t help them more than they can help themselves”.
Mr Mousa, speaking on whether there was truly a breakthrough in US-Iranian relations, said: “Until now I don't see any serious indication that the situation between US and Iran will change but the potential is there…Therefore let us not exclude the possibility of a certain change in the heated relations between the two countries to lessen that a little bit”.
Mr Naumkin agreed, but said: “I don't think that there are serious signs of the escalation but I think that the risks of serious confrontation or just the war or some military plant its exaggerated I think that everybody is quite pragmatic”, given the coronavirus pandemic and the drop in oil prices.
Whispers about pragmatism are seemingly coming out of some corridors in Washington too – because of the desire to avert a confrontation – and from Tehran as part of a process of reconfiguration ahead of the US presidential election but also as a result of the fateful domestic difficulties in Iran.
Some have noted Iran and Hezbollah’s silence vis-à-vis the Israeli brazen determination to annex the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, saying it signals a willingness to allow the Deal of the Century to pass. But if so, then in return for what? This is a deeper and more important question that may be at the heart of escalation and de-escalation in US-Iranian relations.
Reports suggesting the US move to withdraw patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia signals a new US assessment that does not consider Iran to be a major threat is inaccurate, and has been dismissed this week by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who denied the move means reducing US support for Saudi Arabia or is part of US pressure on Riyadh in relation to oil prices.
Yet the UN chief Antonio Guterres’s report to the Security Council on the implementation of Resolution 1559 concerning Lebanon has interesting implications, given the timing and the tone, despite not carrying anything new. He said: “I continue to urge the government and the armed forces of Lebanon to take all measures necessary to prohibit Hezbollah and other armed groups from acquiring weapons and building paramilitary capacity outside the authority of the State,” in violation of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1701 (2006).
Next week’s meeting on Lebanon in Tehran will shed further light on the fate of this small country. And the meeting in Washington will shed further light on whether the climate with Iran is one of confrontation, or one that could carry some implicit preparations for a pragmatic truce.

Will the dollar shortage lead to medicinal shortage?
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/May 17/2020
Nevertheless, with the increase in the value of US Dollars and the simultaneous efforts of the Ministry of Health to regulate and cut down the prices of drugs, volumes of medicines are becoming non-profitable for distributors to import.
BEIRUT: With a pharmaceutical market dominated by imports, Lebanon’s crucial healthcare contributors are suffering from the repercussions of the US Dollar shortage and the increasingly deteriorating economic outlook.
The local pharmaceutical ecosystem consists of more than 100 importing and distributing companies, 11 manufacturing industries, and more than 3000 registered pharmacies.
In 2019, “Products of the chemical or allied industries” ranked second in Lebanon’s top imports, with pharmaceutical products comprising the lion’s share, according to a research on Lebanon’s trade activity by Blom Invest Bank.
However, with the rising price of dollars and the crash of the Lebanese Lira, importers of pharmaceutical products are struggling to make do, the chain-reaction of which is the intensification of the challenges the pharma sector is overall facing.
“The problem comprises not only the drugs’ importation and market availability, but also the fluctuation in the payments to the distributors, and the profit margins of the pharmacies coping with the reduced purchasing capacity of their patients,” said Doctor Anita Salemeh, a pharmacist in the Achrafieh area.
“Prices of medicinal products are changing in an undesigned way, irrespective of the profit margins of pharmacists,” Salemeh told Annahar, adding that at the end of the day, pharmacists are finding themselves torn between their medical ethics, and their basic living rights. “As pharmacists, we prioritize ethics over anything else,” she said. “However, it is also our right to make a living out of our work.”
Adding to Salemeh’s perspective is Jad Sakr, Pharm D, who, in his pharmacy in the Antelias area, has limited the purchase of expensive products such as parapharmaceuticals, focusing on “good, lower-priced products to fit with the current demand.”
The dollar crisis and its accompanying stagflation has negatively impacted the cost of living of all Lebanese citizens, including pharmacists, who have been “working at high speed in difficult conditions,” but with revenues remaining at the level of 1515 lbp while their supermarket bills are drastically increasing, Sakr said. “We understand the Ministry of Health’s efforts to reduce the medical bill of the Lebanese citizens,” he explained, “However, the heavy weight related to the cost of these specific medicinal products on the cash flow of the distributors and pharmacists might decrease the appetite to supply these very products.”
For Sakr, the main concern is to avoid shortages and maintain the supply of medicines at the level expected by his patients, since “the profession of pharmacy requires a lifetime devotion to the service of others.”
Nevertheless, with the increase in the value of US Dollars and the simultaneous efforts of the Ministry of Health to regulate and cut down the prices of drugs, volumes of medicines are becoming non-profitable for distributors to import.
According to a source in pharmaceutical imports, the central bank is covering, “at a very slow rate,” 85% of the supplier invoice that gets transferred outside, leaving the distributor to pay for the remaining 15% with fresh money obtained from the black market at the exchange rate of 3,750 lbp.
“For the past two weeks, we have been on the hunt for US Dollars since we have shipments from abroad on hold, awaiting the payment we are struggling to acquire,” the source told Annahar.
“At this rate, a shortage in the supply of a great many imported drugs is imminent,” he warned, unless the central bank announces a mechanism for pharma distributors to purchase dollars at a stabilized rate for the 15% fresh money that they need to complete their operations.
According to Doctor Pascal Jarjour, pharmacist and UK Researcher, patients are blaming pharmacists for the intense fluctuation in various pharmaceuticals’ prices, unaware that it is the Ministry of Health that decides the prices.
“Despite working in distressing circumstances, our profit margins are decreasing,” Jarjour told Annahar. “If things carry on in this manner, less medications will be imported and distributed to pharmacies, leading to the shortage of essential drugs, and ultimately the inevitable bankruptcy and closure of numerous local pharmacies.”“Patients are at the heart of what we do,” Jarjour said, “But pharmacists also need to be acknowledged as heroes fighting an everyday battle to keep their profession running.”
As Salemeh told Annahar, “The Ministry of Health must establish a logical plan with updated regulations in order to protect the rights of all concerned sides,” especially the pharmacists who are “on the front lines.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 17-18/2020
Canada's Statement on International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia
May 17, 2020 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Honourable Mary Ng, Minister of Small Business, Export Promotion and International Trade, and the Honourable Karina Gould, Minister of International Development, today issued the following statement:
“On this International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia, Canada stands with members of the LGBTQ2 communities, at home and abroad, to reaffirm their fundamental right to be treated equally, and with dignity and respect. No one should be subjected to discrimination or violence based on sexual orientation, or gender identity or expression.
“In addition to our work at home to advance LGBTQ2 rights, Canada continues to be a global leader in defending these rights by making them a central pillar of its foreign policy and through multilateral organizations, such as the Equal Rights Coalition – the first intergovernmental coalition promoting LGBTQ2 rights, globally.
“Canada also seeks inclusive and gender-responsive provisions in its free trade agreements so that they benefit all Canadians, including LGBTQ2 people. For the first time in a trade agreement, the labour chapter of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement includes a provision clarifying that the enforceable obligation related to discrimination in the workplace includes discrimination on the basis of gender, gender identity and sexual orientation.
“Canada also promotes the advancement of human rights and the improvement of socio-economic outcomes for LGBTQ2 people around the world. In line with Canada’s first-ever Feminist International Assistance Policy, our efforts are based on the specific and real life experiences and needs of local LGBTQ2 communities.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate effect on LGBTQ2 people, and we must ensure that such vulnerable and marginalized communities are not attacked and discriminated against under the cover of public health. We condemn the hate speech directed towards them in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Today, and every day, we must stand up strongly for the rights of LGBTQ2 people in Canada and around the world, and speak out against intolerance and discrimination wherever it may occur.”

Israel’s 35th government is sworn into office
DebkaFile/May 17/2020
Binyamin Netanyahu Sunday, May 17, took the oath as prime minister of his 5th government and future alternative PM, while his partner Benny Gantz was sworn in in the reverse order, ready to take over the premiership on Nov. 17, 2021. Gantz also officiates as defense minister. Israel finally has a government, its largest ever (37 ministers and 17 deputy ministers), after more than a year and-a-half of a caretaker administration and three inconclusive elections. It is a national unity emergency government based on a power-sharing accord negotiated between the two leaders of opposite political blocs. It was confirmed by a Knesset vote of 73 to 46. Netanyahu and Gantz opened the Knesset swearing-in ceremony with speeches that emphasized the commonalty they achieved for building a national unity government to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
Both stressed that the three inconclusive elections had demonstrated the people’s wish for unity to resolve the long political impasse. Defending the mammoth 36-member cabinet of Israel’s 35th government, Netanyahu noted that a fourth election would have cost the taxpayer NIS 2bn (app.$500), whereas the new government would spend NIS85m per year. He added that putting together the Likud’s list of ministers was extremely complicated and called for serious compromises. But time is pressing, he said: “No one knows if the current pause in infection is temporary or not. Therefore, the government’s first task will be to establish a coronavirus task cabinet to prepare for another wave of the pandemic. Both – PM Netanyahu and Benny Gantz who succeeds him on Nov. 17, 2021 – dwelt on the urgent need to pass a state budget to provide jobs, restore growth and address the hardships of small and large businesses and the self-employed who had lost everything in the two-month-lockdown. Gantz did not comment on Netanyahu’s emphasis on achieving sovereignty for such Biblical sites such as “Shilo, Bethel, Hebron” and others. “This is a historical mission which will be achieved together,” the Likud leader vowed, maintaining. that it would not distance peace but bring it closer. “Despite our highest possible regard for our close ties with the US and admiration for our friend President Donald Trump,” Netanyahu said: “We must never forget that we must rely on ourselves, for our security, the cornerstone of which are the IDF and security forces. He reiterated his unshaken determination to deny Iran a permanent presence in Syria and its acquisition of a nuclear weapon. His partner, Gantz, touched on potentially controversial issues. One was the need, he voiced, to “remodel the pattern of Israel’s Defense Forces recruitment,” so as to represent all parts of the population. This will be a sore point with the ultra-religious coalition partners who object to compulsory conscription of yeshiva seminarists. He also promised to ensure proper respect for public officials, including those in the Justice Ministry (whom Netanyahu has criticized). However, he also pledged to uphold Israel as a Jewish democracy, and quoted the Likud founder, the late Menachem Begin, who said, upon joining Levi Eshkol in the first unity government with Labor in 1967: “This ends the animosity [dividing] us and brings healing for the ills of the people. We will make every effort to ensure that every one of us feels at home.”Both speeches were strongly heckled from a chamber that was thinly occupied by masked lawmakers in keeping with coronavirus guidelines. Before the swearing in ceremony, opposition leader Yair Lapid took the podium followed by speakers of the factions, who were allotted 10 minutes each.

Holy Jewish site of Esther and Mordechai set ablaze in Iran - reports
Jerusalem Post/May 17/2020
'Disturbing reports from Iran that the tomb of Esther & Mordechai, a holy Jewish site, was set afire overnight,' ADL National Director Jonathan Greenblatt tweeted.
BERLIN - National Director of Anti-Defamation League (ADL) Jonathan Greenblatt announced Friday on Twitter that the tomb of Esther and Mordechai in Iran was torched.
"Disturbing reports from Iran that the tomb of Esther & Mordechai, a holy Jewish site, was set afire overnight. We hope that the authorities bring the perpetrators of this antisemitic act to justice & commit to protecting the holy sites of all religious minorities in Iran,” Greenblatt tweeted.
The Jerusalem Post is seeking to obtain the reports cited by Greenblatt in his tweet. Greenblatt has termed Iran's regime the top state-sponsor of antisemitism and Holocaust denial. Prior to the arson of the tomb, one Twitter user named Mohammad Mahdi Akhyar threatened to destroy the holy site on May 14 in response to a tweet by the Israel's Foreign Affairs' Farsi Twitter page. It is unclear if the arson is connected to Israel's Independence Day. US Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism Elan Carr strongly condemned the attack on the Tomb of Esther and Mordechai and said "Iran's regime is the world's chief state sponsor of antisemitism."He called on the Islamic Republic to "stop incitement" and "protect its Jewish community" and its other minorities. The Iranian American Jewish Federation of New York and Los Angeles, and the members of the Iranian Jewish community in the United States said in a statement that they "are shocked and truly saddened by the news of fire in the ancient and official Iranian Heritage Site, the Tomb of Esther and Mordechai in Hamedan."The statement continued that "We hereby ask the responsible members of the government of Islamic Republic of Iran to apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice for this barbaric act of insult to this holy site and take steps to protect other sites of religious and historic significance."Arthur Stark, Chairman, William Daroff, CEO, and Malcolm Hoenlein, Vice Chair of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, issued a joint statement on the incident. "This abhorrent and unconscionable act represents not only a blatantly antisemitic assault on Jews and Judaism, but an assault on all people of faith. It must be unequivocally condemned by the international community. The government of Iran must act to prevent further attacks and bring to justice those responsible," the statement said. "As Chair of Muslims Against Anti Semitism, I unequivocally condemn such barbaric acts by the Tehran regime. The international community must immediately move to investigate & hold the regime responsible for any damage that may happen to the site of the Tzadikkim," prominent human rights activist, Ghanem Nuseibeh, tweeted.
The Post reported in February that the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom condemned the Iranian regime for its reported threats to raze the tomb of Esther and Mordechai in Hamadan.
Karmel Melamed, an Iranian-American expert on the Jewish community in the Islamic Republic of Iran, tweeted: "My sources who have contacts with Iran's Jewish community have confirmed that there was an 'attempt' to burn the synagogue at the Tomb. Some smoke damage but the fire was minimal. No arrests of suspects have been made yet by Ayatollah regime." The Iranian regime-controlled The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Saturday that a suspect sought to enter the tomb. Radio Farda, the US government-funded news outlet that reports on Iran, wrote that IRNA "confirmed that there had been an attempt to break into the tomb of Esther and Mordechai, a holy Jewish site in Hamedan, but removed the report from its website two hours after its publication." IRNA said the perpetrator tried to enter the building through an adjacent bank but was not successful, wrote Radio Farda, adding that IRNA claimed that the shrine did not suffer damages and that the suspect's faced was captured on CCTV video. IRNA said the police are searching for the perpetrator.  The Voice of America reporter Michael Lipin tweeted: "BREAKING: An eyewitness in #Iran's Hamadan city told @VOAIran/@VOANews he saw several fire trucks going to the Tomb of Esther and Mordechai after an apparent arson attack on Jewish holy site Thursday night, but authorities didn't allow people to get close." “USCIRF is troubled by reported threats to the tomb of Esther and Mordechai in Hamadan, Iran, and emphasizes the Iranian government's responsibility to protect religious sites,” tweeted the US agency.
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) is an independent, bipartisan, federal government entity that monitors, analyzes and reports on threats to religious freedom. The Alliance for Rights of All Minorities (ARAM) in Iran tweeted on Sunday that, “according to covering reports, members of the Iranian Basij attempted to raid the historic [tomb of Esther and Mordechai] site yesterday in an act of revenge against the [Israeli-Palestinian] peace plan by US President Donald Trump.”ARAM noted that “Iranian authorities are threatening to destroy the historic tomb of Ester and Mordechai in Hamadan and convert the site to a consular office for Palestine." The Post could not confirm the “covering reports” cited by ARAM. Esther and Mordechai “were biblical Jewish heroes who saved their people from a massacre in a story known as Purim. Their burial site has been a significant Jewish landmark for Jews and history buffs around the world,” wrote ARAM. The Iranian Christians News Agency (Mohabat) reported in early February that the Basij issued threats to the tomb. “The Council for the Exploration of Student Mobilization of Hamadan Universities said in a statement to the United States, Israel and the Arab countries in the region that they will turn the tomb into a Palestinian Consulate if any action is taken.”ARAM promotes equal rights for women and religious and ethnic minorities in Iran, as well as the Iranian LGBT community.

Iran media: Israel 'cancerous' and a 'virus' after burning of Esther tomb
Jerusalem Post/May 17/2020
The regime's media has now adopted so many conspiracies about Israel and Jews that it doesn’t know which one to believe. Iranian media slammed Israel on “Quds (Jerusalem) Day,” calling the Jewish state a “cancerous gland” and Zionism a “virus,” a clear attempt to link Israel to the pandemic and also to use historic antisemitic tropes against the Jewish state. The article was found on Fars News as part of a piece claiming that there was a conspiracy afoot after the attempted burning of the tomb of Esther and Mordechai in Iran. The article claimed that the burning of the tomb was “fake news” and that it was part of a “Saudi international media plot with Voice of America and the Zionist media.” Iran’s regime media has now adopted so many conspiracies about Israel and Jews that it doesn’t know which one to believe. It now argues that the “Zionists” are working with the Saudis to control “international media.”Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted on Saturday night that the “Zionism regime has proven it doesn’t abide by any treaty.” He then accused Israel of brutality, “trampling on moral norms” and of massacring women and children. He called Israel a “rapid, predatory dog.” This is a way to dehumanize Israel, as part of the regime’s attempt to try to portray Israel as both a dog and a virus. This has parallels with historic antisemitism where Jews were accused of being vermin-like and accused of spreading disease. Iran has long pretended it is a tolerant regime and Jews are able to live in Iran, while the regime's narrative portrayed other countries in the region as antisemitic. But the language Iran’s regime uses to discuss Israel is language that has clear meanings to the people expected to read it in the original.
For Iran’s “Quds Day,” a day the regime reserves every year to distract from its own failures by pretending to take up the Palestinian cause, the ayatollah slammed Israel for oppressing Palestinians and said Iran would “fight against the Zionist regime” and continue its “resistance.”
Iran’s obsession with Israel corrupts every element of the regime. Its sports councils seek to prevent Iranian athletes from participating in matches with Israelis. A new article at Tasnim media looks at a review of a plan to deal with the “hostile actions of the Zionist regime” via sport and to confront the “evil nature of the Zionist regime in sports.” But it appears that Iran was on the verge of letting a law lapse that prevents its athletes from competing with Israelis. Iran’s regime propagandists complained on Quds Day that the world media didn’t give them enough attention, claiming Arabic, Hebrew and Western media had marginalized their special day. In asserting that the media ignored them, Iranian media also took credit for the Covid1948 hashtag, meant to connect the virus with the 1948 war, which one commentator said shows how Israel would not survive another 25 years.

Rami Makhlouf Rejects Syria Regime Demand to Step Down From Mobile Operator
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 May, 2020
Syrian tycoon Rami Makhlouf said on Sunday that authorities had set a deadline for him to resign from top mobile operator Syriatel or they would revoke its license but that he would not step down. In a video, the third he has issued bringing into the open a rift with his cousin Syrian President Bashar al Assad, Makhlouf said the collapse of Syriatel, a main revenue earner for the government, would deal a "catastrophic" blow to the economy. Makhlouf was part of the president´s inner circle and has played a big role in financing Assad's war effort, Western officials have said, citing his business empire which includes telecoms, real estate, construction, and oil trading. "If you don't comply ... the license will be revoked and they said you have until Sunday to either comply or the company will be taken and its assets seized," Makhlouf said. It was not clear when the video was taken and if he meant this Sunday or next.
"You are, by this, destroying the economy of Syria," Makhlouf added. This month he accused security forces of arresting his employees in an "inhumane way" in an unprecedented attack from within the system by one of the country's most influential figures.

Moscow Seeks Serious Reforms in Syria, Criticizes Regime’s Intransigence
Moscow - Raed Jaber/Asharq Al Awsat/May 17/2020
Russian circles said Moscow has been “adjusting its positions towards President Bashar Assad,” amid media campaigns showing the growing divide between Syria and Russia. The sources accused the head of the Syrian regime of intransigence by rejecting reforms and turning to more rapprochement with Iran. In the absence of an official position from Moscow to explain the nature of relations between the two sides, the Russian state-owned Novosti news agency published interviews with prominent figures known for their pro-Assad positions.
The figures downplayed some opposition statements that could reveal a change in the position of Moscow towards Damascus or a possibility that Russia could abandon Assad. The coordinator of the friendship group of the state Duma for relations with Parliament, Dmitry Sablin, said Assad has the support of the majority of Syrians and would win the next elections if he runs for another presidential term. Sablin reiterated that “here is no alternative to Assad.” In an article written in the Russian paper Svobodnaya Pressa, Zauer Karayev, an expert on Syria, wrote that Assad is trying to benefit from gaps in Iranian-Russian relations by distancing himself from Moscow. “This means that it would be more difficult for Russia to push Assad towards the required reforms,” he said. Experts of the Russian Council on international Affairs Kirill Semenov and Anton Lavrov Mardasov also wrote this week an article on Russian-Syrian relations entitled “Syria without Assad,” published by the Carnegie Moscow Center. The two writers discussed the latest Russian media campaigns against the Syrian regime by touching on both its economic and political dimensions. The article said the media campaigns were important in uncovering the size of Syrian regime corruption and Assad’s fewer chances to win the next elections amid an expected collapse due to the dire economic situation. Semenov and Mardasov said Russia aims to push the Syrian regime towards political and economic reforms.
The writers added that Moscow was preparing a scenario to remove all figures who obstruct reforms or change in Syria.

EU to Try to Head Off Israel Annexations
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 May, 2020
EU countries are planning to issue Israel with a warning not to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, to try to head off a diplomatic clash. The bloc is alarmed by the incoming Israeli unity government's plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which it says would violate international law and harm the chances of peace with the Palestinians. But there is no agreement among EU countries over what punitive action to take should Israel press ahead with the move, which has the support of US President Donald Trump. In an interview with AFP, Luxembourg's veteran Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said he had discussed a declaration with his EU counterparts during video talks on Friday. "A very large number of countries on Friday supported a draft text that we drew up with my Irish counterpart Simon Coveney in which we warn against an annexation that would be a violation of international law," Asselborn told AFP.
He said Austria and Hungary had refused to sign the declaration, so it could not be issued in the name of all 27 EU states. "But the fact that a very large number of countries support this line is a success," he said. The Israeli unity government formed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz is due to be sworn in on Sunday, and the plan is for the statement to be issued after that, on Monday. "We are not talking about sanctions. We're talking about prevention. This text is not aggressive," Asselborn said. The four-point statement welcomes the new government and recalls the EU's close ties with Israel, but warns annexation would violate international law. "The European Union wants to cooperate with neighboring states and countries in the region and reiterates its support for a negotiated two-state solution for a viable peace perspective between Israelis and Palestinians," Asselborn said.
"There is no alternative to this solution. No-one has presented another viable solution," Asselborn said. The EU has criticized Trump's Middle East peace plan, unveiled in January, which gave Israel the green light to annex key parts of the West Bank. "If we don't succeed in convincing Israel to give up its project, the hardest part will be ahead of us," warned Asselborn. After Friday's talks the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would make a concerted diplomatic push to try to steer Israel away from annexations. But he admitted there were deep divisions among the EU states, as some like Asselborn push for a tough line and others argue for dialogue. A European official insisted that options for punitive measures were in place: freezing bilateral agreements, suspending scientific cooperation, cancelling trade preferences and recalling ambassadors. But adopting such measures would require unanimity among the 27 EU countries.

Palestinian Authority Declares Full Lockdown on Eid al-Fitr
Ramallah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 May, 2020
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Ashtiyeh has declared that the lockdown throughout the West Bank will be renewed during the upcoming Muslim religious holiday of Eid al-Fitr despite the slowdown in coronavirus cases. He said in a press conference that movement will be banned in all cities, towns, and villages for four days throughout the holiday starting from May 22 night. Ashtiyeh told reporters that the government will consider easing the lockdown measures after the holiday depending on the situation of the coronavirus pandemic.Meanwhile, businesses of all sectors are allowed to continue working as usual until the eve of the holiday. Around 33,000 Palestinian workers are expected to return from Israel into the West Bank for the holiday. Precautionary measures taken by the PA earlier overlooked laborers, causing a sharp rise in infections. In this context, no new coronavirus cases were reported for the ninth day in a row except for Jerusalem. A total of 12 cases recovered in Ramallah and suburbs of Jerusalem, according to Health Minister Mai al-Kaileh. The total number of coronavirus cases in Palestine has reached 554, and 107 out of them are active cases distributed as follows: 61 in Jerusalem, 40 in West Bank northern provinces, and 6 cases in Gaza Strip southern provinces. The number of recoveries increased to 443, which is 80 percent of overall cases. A tally of 2,597 cases was home quarantined, raising the total to 18,971.

ISIS Strikes ‘Baghdad Belt’
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 May, 2020
ISIS has continued to launch nighttime attacks in western and northern Iraq, reaching the Tarmiyah region which belongs to what is called the Baghdad belt. The terror group branded the attacks as “Ramadan invasions,” named after Islam’s holy month of Ramadan.In a rare show of force, the first of its kind in months, ISIS militants infiltrated a Tarmiyah village, located north of Baghdad, and kidnapped and slayed one of the security personnel positioned there. This coincided with a series of operations launched by ISIS on Saturday in the Diyala and Salahuddin governorates and Samarra city. Published footage showed ISIS slaying four members of the same family in Samarra. On Friday night, ISIS targeted a security checkpoint in northeastern Baghdad, causing casualties, according to security sources. Details about the casualties were not released. Meanwhile in northern Diyala, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said a terrorist attack caused one death and 10 injuries. The Iraqi army and the local Diyala Police, in eastern Iraq, launched a military operation south of Buhriz district to pursue ISIS operatives. “The Diyala Operations Command, represented by the Iraqi Army's Fifth Infantry Division and the Diyala police, will conduct search operations in the southern Buhriz regions, implement arrest warrants for the wanted, and prosecute the remnants of the (ISIS) terrorist cells, as well as enhance security and stability there,” a security statement said.Member of the parliamentary Security and Defense Committee MP Bader al-Ziyadi confirmed that, in the next few days, an expansive security operation to counter ISIS will be launched. “There are steps that will be taken to eradicate these (ISIS) outposts and their sleeping cells from our regions,” Ziyadi asserted. "Planned operations in the areas where terrorist groups emerged are awaiting the announcement of the zero hour for their launch, after all procedures for them have been completed,” Ziyadi noted, adding that army air power will participate in crushing the terrorist organization. The MP also warned that those involved in harboring ISIS militants will be held accountable.

Germany Kicks Off as Europe Eases Curbs but Virus Marches On

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 17/2020
German football champions Bayern Munich were set to play their first match in more than two months on Sunday as coronavirus restrictions ease in parts of Europe, but the devastating pandemic remains on the march elsewhere with deaths soaring in Brazil.
With the worldwide death toll topping 311,000 and the global economy reeling from the vast damage caused by lockdowns, the reopenings in some of the hardest-hit countries such as Italy provided much-needed relief. But the number of COVID-19 fatalities soared past 15,000 in Brazil with 230,000 infections, making it the country with the fourth-highest number of cases, a grim reminder of the scale of the crisis. And in the United States -- the worst-hit country -- former President Barack Obama launched a scathing attack on the way the crisis has been handled, saying a lot of American leaders "aren't even pretending to be in charge". In Germany, where authorities have started a gradual easing of restrictions, reigning Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich were set to play Union Berlin in the capital Sunday night, a day after the league resumed play in empty, echoing stadiums.
Already attracting a record TV audience, the Bundesliga restart is under intense scrutiny as a test case, with top sports competitions trying to find ways to resume play without increasing the risk of spreading the virus, which has infected 4.6 million people globally.
The first big-purse golf tournament in months also wrapped up Sunday, with the normally overlooked Korean LPGA Championship winning new interest to women's golf.
"The moment I had always dreamed of finally has come true," said the tearful 20-year-old winner Park Hyun-kyung, who was congratulated by her mask-wearing peers with elbow-bumps. One question that has arisen during the pandemic is whether masks are an effective weapon against the virus, with little research on the subject leading several countries to backflip on their official advice. A team of leading experts in Hong Kong said Sunday that research conducted on hamsters found that non-contact transmission of the virus could be reduced by more than 60 percent when masks are used.
'Calculated risk'
There have been positive signs in a slowly reopening Europe, with Spain reporting its number of new deaths dropped to 87 on Sunday -- the first time the number has fallen below 100 in two months. But despite the optimism in some European countries, the rising infection and fatality numbers in other parts of the world offered reminders of the threat posed by the deadly disease. The number of infections in Latin America passed half a million on Sunday, as Chile locked down its capital Santiago following a sharp rise in cases.
Despite the surging numbers in Brazil, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is keen to end lockdowns, which he claims have unnecessarily damaged the economy. "Unemployment, hunger and misery will be the future of those who support the tyranny of total isolation," Bolsonaro tweeted. In Russia, which has the world's second highest number of infections, the top health official claimed Sunday the country had "halted the growth" of the virus, just a day after reporting its deadliest day. There were happier scenes in Europe, with excited swimmers diving into the waters off newly reopened beaches in France, Greece and Italy, while Britons enjoyed the sun in parks after lockdown measures eased. Italy, for a long stretch the world's worst-hit country, announced that European Union tourists would be allowed to visit from June 3, and a 14-day mandatory quarantine would be scrapped.
"We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said. With the threat of a second wave of infections and with no vaccine available, authorities in many countries have asked people not to throng public spaces as they are made accessible again.
'Not even pretending to be in charge'
And a stark warning came on Sunday from one of the top medical experts in China, where the disease first emerged late last year but has largely been brought under control after more than 4,600 deaths. "The majority of... Chinese at the moment are still susceptible... because (of) a lack of immunity," Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government's senior medical advisor, told CNN. "We are facing (a) big challenge, it's not better than the foreign countries I think at the moment."But with people growing weary of confinement and suffering immense economic pain, pressure is growing on governments to ease lockdowns despite the threat of a second wave. With more than 88,000 deaths and 1.47 million confirmed coronavirus cases, the U.S. is the worst-hit country on the planet, and President Donald Trump is keen to restart the world's biggest economy despite experts warning against moving too quickly. Former president Barack Obama on Saturday took a swipe at the response to the pandemic, telling graduates at a virtual college commencement ceremony that many leaders today "aren't even pretending to be in charge" -- a remark widely regarded as a rare rebuke of his successor. "Doing what feels good, what's convenient, what's easy –- that's how little kids think," he later told high school students. Someone whose handling of the pandemic has been more praised is New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern -- however even she is not exempt from coronavirus measures.
She was denied entry to a cafe over the weekend as it had reached its customer limit. "I have to take responsibility for this, I didn't get organised and book anywhere," her fiancee Clarke Gayford tweeted.

Chinese Ambassador to Israel Found Dead at Home

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 17/2020
China's ambassador to Israel, Du Wei, was found dead at his residence on the outskirts of Tel Aviv on Sunday, police said. The 57-year-old envoy, who had arrived in Israel in mid-February, was found dead in his home in Herzliya, north of the city, spokesman Micky Rosenfeld told AFP. Police units were at the scene "as part of the regular procedure... (but) there is no investigation into his death," Rosenfeld told AFP. Du's wife and son were not with him in Israel. The Chinese foreign ministry said it would only comment when it had "solid" information. Du had previously served as ambassador to Ukraine, according to his biography on the embassy's website. The Haaretz daily said initial reports said staff had found Du dead in his bed and that there were no signs of violence. It quoted Israel's emergency medical service Magen David Adom as saying the cause of death appeared to be a cardiac incident. A spokesman for the medical service would not provide any official information. Du had undergone a 14-day home quarantine on arrival in Israel because of the new coronavirus outbreak, according to an interview with local media in May. On April 2, Israel Hayom, the top-circulation Hebrew newspaper, published an editorial by Du on the theme that "Collaboration is the Cure for the Virus".China and Israel, a strong US ally, have boosted cooperation in the high-tech and other sectors, leading Washington to urge Israel to limit Chinese investment in its strategic sectors. Chinese embassy spokesman Wang Yongjun in a recent Jerusalem Post commentary rejected the claim and called Sino-Israeli cooperation a "win-win" situation.

Italy to Reopen Borders for EU Tourists in Early June

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 17/2020
Italy will reopen to European tourists from early June and scrap a 14-day mandatory quarantine period, the government said, as it quickened the exit from the coronavirus lockdown. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also said on Saturday that gyms and cinemas would soon be able to welcome the public again, as the government seeks to restart economic activity while treading cautiously amid the lingering, though waning, coronavirus.  "We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Conte said during a televised address. "We have to accept it otherwise we will never be able to start up again."Conte enforced an economically crippling shutdown in early March to counter a pandemic that has so far killed nearly 32,000 people in Italy. The shutdown halted all holidaymaking in a country heavily dependent on the tourism industry. Although Italy never formally closed its borders and has allowed people to cross back and forth for work or health reasons, it banned movement for tourism and imposed a two-week isolation period for new arrivals. In March, the European Union banned foreign nationals from entering its Schengen zone, an open border zone comprising 22 of 27 member states, with exceptions for medical workers and essential travel.  But on Wednesday, the EU set out plans for a phased restart of summer travel, urging member states to reopen its internal borders, while recommending that external borders remain shut for most travel until at least the middle of June.
Beginning on June 3, visitors within the Schengen zone will be allowed to enter Italy with no obligation to self-isolate. Italians will also be able to move between regions, though local authorities can limit travel if infections spike. Movements to and from abroad can be limited by regional decree "in relation to specific states and territories, in accordance with the principles of adequacy and proportionality to the epidemiological risk", the government said in a statement.  The latest decree is also a boon to Italy's agricultural sector, which relies on roughly 350,000 seasonal workers from abroad. Farming lobby group Coldiretti said farms were already preparing to organize some 150,000 workers from places including Romania, Poland and Bulgaria.
Cannot await vaccine
The peak of Italy's contagion passed at the end of March but with experts warning a second wave cannot be ruled out, Conte had been reluctant to lift the lockdown quickly. In his address, Conte said the country should ideally await a vaccine before opening up for business again, "but we can't afford it, we would end up with a strongly damaged economic and social structure."His approach in recent weeks frustrated many of Italy's regions, with some already allowing businesses to reopen before the restrictions were lifted. Restaurants, bars and hairdressers are being allowed to reopen on Monday, two weeks earlier than initially planned. Shops will also open and Italians will finally be able to see friends, as long as they live within their same region. Church services will begin again but the faithful will have to follow social distancing rules and holy water fonts will be empty. Mosques will also reopen. Gyms, pools and sports centers will be able to open up again on May 25, Conte said on Saturday, provided they respect security protocols. Theaters and cinemas will be allowed to reopen on June 15, he said. Gatherings of large groups remain banned.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 17-18/2020
Lockdown Critics May Have Some Valid Points

Joe Nocera/Bloomberg/May 17/2020
Three months after the first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the US, has the time come to start paying more attention to the critics?
No, not the MAGA types foolishly protesting they have a constitutional right to endanger themselves and others by ignoring social-distancing rules. And not the “it’s-just-the-flu” crowd, either.
I’m referring to people like John Ioannidis, the Stanford University School of Medicine scientist who argued early on that the coronavirus was far less deadly than the models were predicting. Or the Swedish epidemiologist John Giesecke, who says that protecting the elderly and frail — and allowing the rest of society to go about its business — makes far more sense than lockdowns, whose efficacy, he believes, remains unproved.
I don’t agree with every claim the critics make. Some go so far as to dismiss the value of social distancing, the importance of which has become pretty clear since the coronavirus was first identified. But I believe it’s always worth listening to smart people with ideas that go against the grain.
As the online publication UnHerd put it recently, “The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil.” In that spirit, I would like to offer four contrarian arguments that, at the very least, ought to be taken more seriously.
We’re still acting as if the original models were correct. In mid-March, a team at Imperial College in London estimated that 500,000 British citizens and 2.2 million Americans would die from an uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus. That estimate caused the governments of both Boris Johnson and Donald Trump to begin stressing self-isolation measures, according to the New York Times. In the US, state after state shut down their economies while a mad scramble took place to create hospital space for Covid-19 patients.
Since then, the major models have been revised downward significantly. According to data compiled by the Reich Lab at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, models now estimate 67,000 to 120,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US. Yet strict measures like lockdowns, which were put in place based on the original modeling, remain in place, while hospitals around the country, many of which are largely empty, continued to be reserved for nonexistent Covid-19 patients.
New York is not the rest of the country. There is no question that New York State has borne the brunt of the crisis. The Times reports that one out of every three Americans who has died from Covid-19 has been a New Yorker — 17,000 in all. New York City is one of the few places in the country — along with Detroit and New Orleans — where the hospital system has been stretched to capacity.
New York is the densest city in the country, and density is a crucial factor in spreading the virus. Yet cities and states that are far less dense have imposed the same restrictions as New York State
Focus on the elderly. “Every piece of evidence we have suggests that the virus is mild for most people but can be devastating for those who are frail and vulnerable,” Ioannidis told me. That primarily means people with significant underlying conditions and the elderly.
The Kaiser Family Foundation calculates that at least 10,000 of the 50,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US have been nursing-home residents. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that fully 80 percent of coronavirus deaths have been people 65 or older.
It’s been said that lockdown critics are willing to sacrifice the elderly to more quickly develop herd immunity and defeat the virus. But the ones I’ve spoken to say just the opposite: that what the states need to do is put money and effort towards protecting the elderly and vulnerable — and keeping them as far away from the virus as possible. That may be a tall order given the way society depends on facilities to care for the elderly. But it’s not impossible.
How much damage are we overlooking in our single-minded focus on the coronavirus? When you get right down to it, this is the big question. The enormous damage being done to the economy because of the lockdowns is a given. Let’s consider some of the other problems that have emerged.
For instance, the New York Post posted an article by Daniel G. Murphy, an emergency room doctor in the Bronx. He wrote that since the coronavirus struck, people without Covid-19 were avoiding the emergency room. He added:
A large share of those staying home surely have emergency medical and surgical conditions not related to the novel coronavirus. The growing numbers dying at home during this crisis must include fatal myocardial infarctions, asthma exacerbations, bacterial infections and strokes.
How many people with cancer are not being diagnosed? How many operations are being put on hold — to the long-term detriment of the patient? For that matter, how many hospitals are teetering on the brink financially because patients who need to be in the hospital are staying home?
Here’s another question: Has the lockdown increased incidents of domestic violence? The answer, plainly, is yes; in New York, for instance, domestic violence so far in April is up 30% compared with incidents in the month a year ago. (New York responded by setting up a domestic violence hotline.) What does it mean for at-risk kids, some of whom view school as their “safe space,” now that they don’t have a school to go to now?
Indeed, there may be no bigger ancillary consequence than the closing of schools. It affects everyone. Children aren’t learning the way they should. Parents are struggling to juggle working from home with keeping their kids productively occupied. Other parents, whose jobs require them to be out of the house, have to scramble to find someone who can help out. Teachers are feeling even more stress, trying to impart lessons to kids who may not know how to use a computer — all while taking care of their own kids. And of course, even with online learning, interrupting school can only exacerbate the equality gap.
When I suggested in a tweet that government officials should make testing teachers a priority so that schools could reopen, I received plenty of positive responses. But others said that reopening schools could endanger the teachers because children can be asymptomatic carriers. “Are you insane?” one person wrote.
In fact, Denmark has already reopened its schools after calculating that doing so would lead to minimal new infections. The Lancet published an article that concluded that “school closures alone would prevent only 2% to 4% of deaths, much less than other social interventions.”
We know that children are largely unaffected by the virus; even if they’re infected, they are usually asymptomatic. We also know that people younger than 50 are far less likely to become gravely ill from Covid-19. Given how critical it is to get kids back to school, why couldn’t school systems institute a policy whereby teachers older than 50 could remain at home while younger teachers and the children could head back to the classroom? The teachers could remain socially distant from the students, and certain close-contact games, like basketball, could be banned temporarily during recess.
Would there be some risk in taking this approach? Yes. But life is full of risks that we try to mitigate while acknowledging that we can’t eliminate them entirely. Driving a car involves risk. Useful products that contain suspected carcinogens carry a small danger. Bypass surgery is risky. The point is that these are all risks we take willingly knowing that they will cause some people to die. We accept that consequence.
At bottom, that is what the critics are saying about the coronavirus. If only 50 people have died from Covid-19 in your state, isn’t reopening the economy worth the risk? If 80% of Covid-19 deaths are elderly, isn’t it worth the risk to return kids to school? With the expected number of deaths so much lower than originally expected, shouldn’t we take the risk that this virus isn’t going to be the second coming of the 1918 flu?
So far, the US has been unwilling to accept much risk in dealing with the coronavirus. Do we know enough now to change that calculus? The critics say yes — and they may well be right.

The Arab System Between Citizenship and Failure of State!

Zuhair Al-Harthi/Asharq Al Awsat/May 17/2020
After colonial powers withdrew from several Arab states, systems that were called nationalist at the time rose to power and raised powerful slogans describing their devotion to land, dignity, freedom, and autonomy, only to swiftly become repressive, terrorizing their own people as they failed to fill the post-independence political void. They were also financially and administratively corrupt, and since their culture was militaristic, they entrenched tyranny and dictatorship. There were indeed cultural and social transformations, but these were a manifestation of mutilated liberalism, and its byproducts were more similar to spaces contaminated by racism, corruption, sectarianism and sectarian discrimination.
The value of citizenship was not paid attention to; rather, civil conflicts and wars, thuggish and chauvinistic behavior, isolation, backwardness and ignorance became headlines. They certainly got rid of colonialism at the time, but they became dependent on it in different and more severe configurations and forms.
It was natural that the concepts of the age of “enlightenment” would transit from France to Egypt and the Arab world, but it was not reflected in the political scene, as evidenced by the disregard of the political systems of the time for the values that had emerged during this period, as the Arab countries were colonized with the complicity of some Arabs under the big hoax that they wanted to spread these values.
However, they tyrannized, reaping its fruits, looting its money and violating the dignity of its people. The enigma is that these political forces, symbols, and voices took advantage of the citizenship card to confront colonialism, and after independence was achieved they threw citizenship against the wall and did not care to establish a state of law and institutions. This absence reinforced the system’s authoritarianism at the expense of the peoples’ rights and dignity. Many peoples suffered immensely and were weakened and debilitated, which made them susceptible to isolation and silence, proving that these military systems had indeed succeeded in turning the Arab mind off, hindering the Arabs’ Enlightenment and suspending their growth. They soon became prisoners of partisan, factional, and sectarian slogans, unconsciously turning into servants for these slogans.
Historically this regression continued until the Arab system that existed before 1967 started to fracture. Throughout most of the second half of the 21st century, this system started to collapse over several stages, and the system in the region became dysfunctional and some countries collapsed. Twenty percent of Arab countries lived bitter experiences, while some of them were classified as failed states for a lack of a citizenship program such as Sudan, Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Yemen, while unofficial forces rose, such as ISIS, Hezbollah, and the Houthi Movement, which clearly reveals the internal fragility of these countries and their lack of a framework that would organize their relations and contain their struggles and crises.
In light of wars, partisan and ideological conflicts, it is normal for there to be division as the idea of citizenship has not yet been established. An important question remained raised about the ability of Arab societies to break away from their crises to become modern societies. They cannot do so as long as political elites are weak, political and cultural awareness is lacking, ideological and tribal affiliations still dominate social identity, and an organized social base is still absent. Thinker Hisham Jaait sees that conceiving of this transformation necessarily requires the preparation of suitable conditions for religious reform, industrial and technological modernization, and intellectual and social enlightenment.
Revolutions, coups, transformations, and peaceful elections and ballot boxes have all taken place and the Arab problematic, along with crises, struggles, and disputes, have all remained. This opens the door for a question about what political system is best fit to fulfill human ambitions? Monarchies have proven that they are more effective and successful and are closer to the people by being able to deal with events and overcome crises and hardship while many republican systems failed to do so.
Professor of Sociology, Halim Barakat, was accurate and perhaps correct when describing the nature of Arab societies as half “regressive and dependent” as a result of the global capitalist system, poverty, the rising levels of in inequality between classes, and tribal, sectarian, racial, regional and local affiliations, and the dominion of the authoritarian state. Barakat pointed out that the nature of Arab society is “traditional and patriarchal, and leans toward authoritarianism at several levels”.
Arab society views it as a “transitory phase between modernism and heritage”. However, in its cultural aspect, it is “expressive and spontaneous, however laden with repression and taboos”. Social relations in the Arab society are characterized by the personal and by overpowering the notion of collective over the individual. Arabs bear the reason behind their failures. Conspiracy theories and blaming others no longer resonates with people. Beginning a political and economic reform process in the Arab world is not a luxury but the only way out. It is a necessity because many of the current political modes are no longer fit for the current stage, especially that the world is going through a transition phase before solving the coronavirus crisis that has made things more complicated.
There is a substantial difference between an objective critique and self-flagellation. There is no complete escape from colonial discourse and the features of the failed state toward independence and international competition without Arabs carrying out a critical revision of their circumstances. This revision needs to be grounded in political realism, free enlightened thought, and a political will for reform.

Coronavirus: China's Disappeared Heroes and the Silence of the West
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/May 17/2020
These intrepid dissidents showed how fragile, vacuous and dangerous is the edifice of the Chinese regime.
The Chinese Communist Party "is the biggest and most serious virus of all... It is time to recognize the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to all humanity. The CCP represses and manipulates information to strengthen its hold on power." — Chen Guangcheng, blind Chinese dissident, now a refugee in the US. Asianews.it, April 27, 2020.
Today...if we know something about China we owe it to China's vanished heroes. We have, horribly, chosen to abandon them. Very few in the very free West call out the Chinese authorities and ask these great men and women to be released.
The Australian University of Queensland, with close links to China is actually trying to take disciplinary action, including possible expulsion, against a student, Drew Pavlou, known for his criticism of Beijing. We are playing Beijing's game of repression of dissent.
Bloomberg News is said to censor articles that might anger China and expose Xi's personal wealth. And the European Union just softened criticism of China in a report on disinformation about the pandemic... It looks as though free thought is more valued among China's daring dissidents than in many corners of the West.
To paraphrase Leon Trotsky: You may not be interested in China, but China is interested in you.
Dr. Li Wenliang, who died from coronavirus on February 7, had been reprimanded by the Chinese government, with seven other doctors, for warning of the outbreak in December. He was accused of "spreading false rumors" and "disrupting social order" and, for his brave efforts, was detained and interrogated. Pictured: A vigil to mourn Wenliang on February 7 in Hong Kong. (Photo by Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)
Three Chinese internet activists have disappeared and are believed to have been detained by police. They have reportedly been charged with preserving articles that were removed by China's online censors. Chen Mei, Cai Wei and Cai's girlfriend went missing on April 19.
A few days earlier, Beijing police formally arrested retired professor Chen Zhaozhi for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble" in a speech about the pandemic. The former Beijing University of Science and Technology professor had posted comments online, including that "Wuhan pneumonia is not a Chinese virus but Chinese Communist Party virus". In addition, Wang Quanzhang, a Chinese human rights lawyer, who ended his prison sentence after more than four years for "subversion against the state", immediately after leaving the penitentiary, was placed in "quarantine", meaning under arrest.
These are just the latest Chinese dissidents who were concerned about the virus that began in Wuhan, the ground zero of the Covid-19 pandemic, who have vanished. They were evidently "disappeared" because they were searching for, and telling the truth about, what happened, as well as the Chinese regime's attempt to bury it.
Frances Eve, deputy director of research at the Hong Kong-based watchdog group, Chinese Human Rights Defenders, said:
"Everyone who has disappeared is at very high risk of torture – most likely to try to force them to confess that their activities were criminal or harmful to society. Then, as we've seen in previous cases, people who have been disappeared will be brought out and forced to confess on Chinese state television".
A Chinese citizen journalist, Li Zehua, recently reappeared after having vanished two months previous, while investigating the Wuhan coronavirus cover-up. The Chinese regime made him tame and silenced him. In contrast to the tone of his reporting from Wuhan, Zehua's new video shows him heaping praise on the regime that detained him:
"Throughout the whole process, police officers acted civil and legally, making sure that I was resting and eating well, they really cared for me, I had three meals a day, felt safe with guards, and got to watch the news every day."
His video shows the tragic consequence of China's repression.
In his pre-arrest reports from Wuhan, Zehua had a far more aggressive tone against the authorities:
"I don't want to remain silent, or shut my eyes and ears. It's not that I can't have a nice life, with a wife and kids. I can. I'm doing this because I hope more young people can, like me, stand up."
These Chinese journalists know that the price will be terrible. Beijing just sentenced a journalist, Chen Jieren, to a 15-year prison term for "vilifying the Chinese Communist Party" after state media released his "confession". China, the world's largest prison for journalists, has been accused of now having entered a "total censorship era".
The "patient zero" of this Chinese repression was Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist, who was the whistleblower for Covid-19, and who died, purportedly of the virus, at the age of 34. First, was detained by police in Wuhan for "spreading false rumors" and, for telling the truth, forced to sign a document that he had "told untruthful information online." Hours after state media reported Dr. Li's death," noted Physicians for Human Rights, "official censors scrubbed the Chinese Internet of any mention of his passing without explanation."
Another doctor from Wuhan, Ai Fen, head of the emergency room at Wuhan Central Hospital, was apparently also one of the whistleblowers, who had "sounded the alarm" about the virus on December 30, 2019. Ai Fen was "disappeared" after criticizing the censorship concerning the epidemic. "If I had known what was to happen, I would not have cared about the reprimand. I would have fucking talked about it to whoever, where ever I could", she said. She has not been seen or heard from since early April.
Chen Qiushi, a citizen journalist who reported from Wuhan, has also been missing since February. "I'm scared, I have the virus in front of me and behind me China's law enforcement", Chen said in a video dated January 30. "But I will keep my spirits up, as long as I'm alive and in this city I will continue my reports. I'm not afraid of dying. Why should I be afraid of you, Communist Party?"
A Wuhan clothing salesman, Fang Bin, apparently committed the crime of counting "too many" body bags. "This is too many, so many dead", Bin said in a 40-minute video about the virus outbreak. He then disappeared as well. Bin filmed bodies piling up at a crematorium. Two months later, the world discovered that China had lied about the number of victims in Wuhan. Bin was right and Beijing had to raise its coronavirus official death toll in Wuhan by 50 percent.
A university student in Shandong, Zhang Wenbin, called on President Xi to step down. "When I look at the courage with which Hong Kong and Taiwan stand up to the Communist Party, I want my own voice to be heard", he said. "I call on you all to look upon the true colors of the Communist Party, and stand together to bring down this wall". Then Zhang Wenbin disappeared.
A property tycoon in Beijing, Ren Zhiqiang, also disappeared after writing an essay in which he described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "clown," and suggested that the Communist Party's attack on freedom of speech had exacerbated the epidemic.
Wang Fang, a native of Wuhan, who won China's prestigious Lu Xun Literary Prize, faces harassment and death threats after publishing a diary in the West about what happened in her native city. "I have fought the good fight, I have finished the race, I have kept the faith", Fang wrote, quoting the Bible. She explained that today's China reminds her of the Cultural Revolution, when Mao Zedong imposed fanaticism and obedience in the country and when dissidents were humiliated in public, killed by mobs or forced to commit suicide on streets.
A Chinese law professor at Tsinghua University, Professor Xu Zhangrun, was also placed under investigation after publishing an essay that railed against repression under President Xi. "I don't know what they'll do next," Professor Xu said. "I've been mentally preparing for this for a long time. At the worst, I could end up in prison". He also published a long essay in which he denounced Xi Jinping and the Communist Party. "The coronavirus epidemic has revealed the rotten core of Chinese governance", Professor Xu wrote. He added that the Chinese system now "values the mediocre, the dilatory and the timid" and that the mess caused by officials in Wuhan who covered up early signs of the virus "has infected every province and the rot goes right up to Beijing".
Friends say that since those remarks were published, Professor Xu's social account was suspended, his name scrubbed from Weibo, a Chinese blogging platform, and that now only articles from official websites show up on the country's largest search engine, Baidu.
A prominent Chinese legal activist, Xu Zhiyong, who urged Xi Jinping to resign -- "You're just not smart enough," he said -- was also arrested.
A pro-democracy activist, Ren Ziyuan, was sent to administrative detention for criticizing the government's management of the epidemic, Freedom House reported. Additionally, Tan Zuoren, an online activist and former political prisoner, has received multiple visits by police and had his account on the WeChat social media platform frozen. Former professor Guo Quan , after publishing articles about the outbreak, was also arrested for "inciting subversion of state power".
These intrepid dissidents showed how fragile, vacuous and dangerous is the edifice of the Chinese regime. The Chinese Communist Party "is the biggest and most serious virus of all", said the blind activist and dissident Chen Guangcheng, now a refugee in the US. "It is time", he said, "to recognize the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to all humanity. The CCP represses and manipulates information to strengthen its hold on power, regardless of the toll on human lives". Also apparently regardless of the number of victims in the world.
An open letter from parliamentarians, academics, advocates and policy leaders states:
"As an international group of public figures, security policy analysts and China watchers, we stand in solidarity with courageous and conscientious Chinese citizens including Xu Zhangrun, Ai Fen, Li Wenliang, Ren Zhiqiang, Chen Qiushi, Fang Bin, Li Zehua, Xu Zhiyong, and Zhang Wenbin, just to name a few of the real heroes and martyrs who risk their life and liberty for a free and open China".
The letter was signed by, among others, Judith Abitan, Executive Director of the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights; Lord Alton of the British House of Lords; the French historian Jean-Pierre Cabestan of the Hong Kong Baptist University; Irwin Cotler, Emeritus Professor of Law at McGill University and former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada; and Giulio Terzi di Sant'Agata, Italy's former minister of Foreign Affairs.
While many in the West thought that the Soviet Union was a heaven, it only took a handful of heroes beyond the Iron Curtain to let us know about the gulags, the secret police, the hunger, the repression -- in short, they showed us that the heaven was a hell. These heroes included, the Czech writer Václav Havel, the nuclear scientist Andrei Sakharov and the author Alexander Solzhenitsyn in the Soviet Union; and the physicist Robert Havemann in East Germany, to name just a few. They paid with arrest, exile, prison and even their lives, such as Czech philosopher Jan Patočka, who died after being interrogated.
Today, similarly, if we know something about China, we owe it to China's vanished heroes. We have, horribly, chosen to abandon them. Very few in the very free West call out the Chinese authorities and ask these great men and women to be released. For its acquiescence, the West will pay dearly.
The University of Queensland, Australia, which has close links to China, is actually trying to take disciplinary action, including the possible expulsion, against a student, Drew Pavlou, for his criticism of Beijing. Are we already playing Beijing's game of repressing dissent?
Bloomberg News is said to censor articles that might anger China and expose Xi's personal wealth. And the European Union recently softened criticism of China in a report on disinformation about the pandemic. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, admitted that China had "pressured" Brussels.
"We're almost extinct," said Liu Hu, a journalist detained for nearly a year after investigating corrupt politicians. "No one is left to reveal the truth".
It looks as though free thought is more valued among China's daring dissidents than in many corners of the West.
To paraphrase Leon Trotsky: You may not be interested in China, but China is interested in you.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
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US needs help restricting Iran’s influence in Syria
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 17, 2020
US sanctions on Iran and the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy are forcing Tehran to tactically shift its policy toward its staunchest ally, Syria.
The Iranian regime has reined in some of its forces in the Arab state and reduced its financial assistance to the Syrian government. As James Jeffrey, the US special envoy for Syria and the fight against Daesh, pointed out last week: “We have seen the Iranians pulling in some of their outlying activities and such in Syria... in terms of the huge success of the Trump administration’s sanctions policies against Iran. It’s having a real effect in Syria.”
Since President Donald Trump in 2018 pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and adopted the maximum pressure policy, Iran’s oil exports have been steadily falling. Before the US began taking a tougher stance toward the ruling clerics, Iran was exporting more than 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Its exports have since dropped to about 200,000 bpd — a decline of more than 85 percent.
As the flow of funds to the Iranian government is cut off, the Iranian leaders’ efforts to fund and sponsor the Syrian regime and various militia groups are impacted. Even a Syrian state-controlled newspaper has admitted that Iran has reduced its financial assistance to Damascus. Al-Watan made the surprising revelation when it reported that Iran halted its credit line to the Syrian government in 2018. It added that the Tehran regime was having difficulty shipping oil to Syria, creating a fuel shortage. Iran has also been forced to cut funds to its militias in Syria and it has not been able to pay some of the militants’ salaries. One fighter in Syria last year told the New York Times: “The golden days are gone and will never return. Iran doesn’t have enough money to give us.”
Other factors that have forced Iran to reduce its presence in Syria are the coronavirus disease pandemic and the global plunge in oil prices. These factors will most likely cause Iran’s economy to shrink further, forcing the regime to cut defense spending. Even before the pandemic, in October last year, the International Monetary Fund adjusted its forecast for Iran’s economy, stating that it was expected to shrink by 9.5 percent in 2019, rather than the 6 percent it had previously predicted.
As the flow of funds is cut off, the Iranian leaders’ efforts to fund and sponsor the Syrian regime and various militia groups are impacted.
Tehran has also been forced to shift its focus from Syria to domestic issues as it is facing a significant budget deficit and is running out of options to generate revenue amid the US maximum pressure policy, the pandemic, and the falling oil price. As Iran’s state-run daily Kayhan acknowledged in February: “The persistence of the recession will not only lead to further declines in income and livelihoods, but also a large portion of the government’s tax revenue projected in the 2020-2021 budget will not be reached, exacerbating the previous deficit.”
In addition, the US position toward Tehran has most likely emboldened and empowered Israel to further target Iran’s bases in Syria, putting significant pressure on the regime. And the US Caesar Act, which is due to come into effect on June 17, will further worsen Iran’s situation, as it will impose additional sanctions on any states and private companies that assist the Syrian regime.
But it is important to point out that the Iranian regime’s decision to rein in its forces in Syria and cut funds to its militias there does not represent a fundamental shift in Iran’s Syria policy. In other words, the regime’s shift is tactical, not strategic. The four-decade history of the theocratic establishment shows that, whenever its economy recovers, it will return to its modus operandi of boosting its support for and arming and financing militia groups and the Syrian regime.
For the US policy on Iran to be more effective and have long-lasting effects on Tehran’s Syria policy, the EU must also commit itself to meaningful joint action with its transatlantic partner to put a stop to Iran’s rogue behavior and destabilizing influence in Syria. And, while US policy toward the Iranian regime is heading in the right direction, Washington must also closely cooperate with the Gulf states. A united front — and joint sanctions — would send a clear message and engender an economic stranglehold that would force the Iranian government to concentrate on its domestic agenda, rather than its influence in Syria.
In conclusion, America’s maximum pressure policy is pushing Iran in the right direction, but other countries ought to adopt this informed policy in order to further restrict the Tehran regime.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Tensions rise as new Iraqi PM confronts Iran’s proxies

Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 17, 2020
Tharallah (God’s Revenge) emerged in 2003 as a notorious Basra-based, Tehran-funded death squad, hunting down and gruesomely murdering Sunnis, Baathists, and anyone Iranian agents paid them to kill. British soldiers in December 2003 raided a Tharallah torture chamber. It has regained nationwide notoriety in recent days after opening fire on protesters outside its headquarters.
Several hundred demonstrators have been gunned down by paramilitary elements since mass protests erupted in the fall of 2019. Militias are accustomed to routinely getting away with murder. However, in a break with precedent, Tharallah’s headquarters were subsequently raided by security forces and their leader, Yousif Al-Musawi, arrested.
The fact that a raid against the headquarters of an Iran-backed militia was one of the first moves taken by new Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi could be interpreted as a significant gesture of intent. Al-Kadhimi declared that “those who spill Iraqi blood will not rest.” He also liberated large numbers of Iraqis detained during the protests.
But let’s keep matters in perspective: Some other smaller “rogue” militias, such as the Abu-Al-Fadl Al-Abbas Brigade, have, over the past couple of years, had their offices closed down and leaders arrested — accused of the same criminal activities that larger militant factions from Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi engage in with impunity. The principal militias arguably profit from the squashing of their smaller rivals, offering exclusive control over neighborhood territories for extorting businesses, terrorizing locals and running narcotics, prostitution and oil-smuggling rackets.
Al-Kadhimi was previously the director of national intelligence, known for his cozy ties with the US. He holds British citizenship and was formerly a journalist and human rights activist. The prime minister has won praise for his speed in putting a Cabinet together and the technocratic flavor of his appointments. Observers were reassured by the appointment of experienced figures like Finance Minister Ali Allawi and Gen. Abdel-Wahab Al-Saadi as head of the counterterrorism service.
However, Iran-aligned elements accuse him of green-lighting the US attack that killed Iranian Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani and paramilitary overlord Abu-Mahdi Al-Muhandis in January. Al-Muhandis’ Kata’ib Hezbollah militia described Al-Kadhimi’s nomination as tantamount to a “war against Iraqis,” suggesting that the prime minister should be “behind bars.” Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated cleric Ali Kourani, meanwhile, accused Al-Kadhimi of plotting with the US to disband Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi. Other Hashd elements are temporarily giving him the benefit of the doubt. Militia leader Qais Al-Khazali previously accused Al-Kadhimi of killing Soleimani and spying for the Americans, but then emerged with conditions under which he would accept his candidacy — including (of course) steadfast support for the Hashd.
There are fears that militias are again resorting to assassinations and violence to confront all challengers.
In a catastrophic economic climate, Al-Kadhimi is faced with the unenviable task of slashing salaries, laying off employees, cutting subsidies and imposing taxes. According to one source: “Iraq is like a racing car that has been neglected and repeatedly wrecked. Al-Kadhimi is not the racing car driver. He’s the tow truck driver.” The Hashd’s readiness to allow Al-Kadhimi’s appointment may be premised on the awareness that nobody could navigate Iraq through the coming tumultuous year and emerge without their reputation destroyed.
Iraqi oil revenues plunged from $7.1 billion in April 2019 to $1.4 billion in April 2020 and are set to fall further given OPEC’s production cuts. The government requires about $4 billion per month just to pay state employees. Two full months of oil income would be required to cover the $2.16 billion annual budget of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi.
The budgetary cake may have shrunk from lavish chocolate gateau to a plain cupcake, but paramilitary warlords would rather burn down heaven and earth than see their portions reduced. As one regional expert told me: “Because the pie is getting smaller, their appetite is getting bigger.” The same source speculated as to whether Al-Kadhimi’s control over the budget could allow him to gradually “suffocate” the Hashd through squeezing their resources. Iraq’s UN envoy affirmed that the government’s priority was “restricting weapons to state hands” and consolidating Iraqi sovereignty. We’ll see what happens.
In Iraq and Lebanon, the Hashd and Hezbollah will fight tooth and nail to ensure they aren’t impacted by budget cuts; including corrupt revenue sources and their foot soldiers on the state payroll. In this fraught political environment, there are fears that militias are again resorting to assassinations and violence to confront all challengers. Following the deaths or disappearances of a string of figures associated with the protest movement, lawyer and activist Daoud Al-Hamdani was assassinated in Diyala in recent days.
One pledge Al-Kadhimi may deliver on is preparing the ground for early elections, as promised to protesters — offering a glimmer of hope for Iraq. In 2018, the Iran-aligned paramilitary Fatah list won a dismal 48 out of 329 seats, but was able to play a dominant role amid a deeply fractured parliament. Recent protests throughout Shiite regions focused anger against these militias, which frequently responded with deadly force, making it almost a certainty that fewer Shiite voters would now cast ballots for pro-Iran sectarian elements. Fresh elections could, therefore, benefit moderate Shiite factions and liberal cross-sectarian forces — if these entities get their act together.
Just like Hezbollah, the Hashd has displayed immense skill in infiltrating and corrupting every level of every governing department. Disentangling and dismantling the Hashd octopus will take years — brigade by brigade — perhaps starting with smaller criminal entities like Tharallah, but ultimately moving on to the bigger beasts. There couldn’t be a better time to start than now, when the state coffers physically can’t afford to pay these parasites, which are preying upon the Iraqi body politic.
Al-Kadhimi’s tenure represents a window of opportunity for the Arab world and the West to re-engage with Iraq and empower moderate elements that could squeeze out the sectarian, Iran-allied factions in forthcoming elections.
Only Iraqis can win their country back. The protesters’ demands must be translated into a governing agenda that guarantees that Iraq’s vast wealth isn’t squandered on paramilitancy and advancing its Iranian neighbor’s hostile regional ambitions. Starving and desperate citizens require leaders who inspire genuine hope and can recultivate national pride — irrespective of tribe, ethnicity or sect — by putting Iraqi identity first.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.