English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 03/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The Third Time That Jesus Appeared To The Disciples After His Resurrection
John/21/01-14/ Afterward Jesus appeared again to his disciples, by the Sea of Galilee. It happened this way: 2 Simon Peter, Thomas (also known as Didymus, Nathanael from Cana in Galilee, the sons of Zebedee, and two other disciples were together. “I’m going out to fish,” Simon Peter told them, and they said, “We’ll go with you.” So they went out and got into the boat, but that night they caught nothing. Early in the morning, Jesus stood on the shore, but the disciples did not realize that it was Jesus. He called out to them, “Friends, haven’t you any fish?”“No,” they answered. He said, “Throw your net on the right side of the boat and you will find some.” When they did, they were unable to haul the net in because of the large number of fish. Then the disciple whom Jesus loved said to Peter, “It is the Lord!” As soon as Simon Peter heard him say, “It is the Lord,” he wrapped his outer garment around him (for he had taken it off) and jumped into the water. 8 The other disciples followed in the boat, towing the net full of fish, for they were not far from shore, about a hundred yards. When they landed, they saw a fire of burning coals there with fish on it, and some bread. Jesus said to them, “Bring some of the fish you have just caught.” So Simon Peter climbed back into the boat and dragged the net ashore. It was full of large fish, 153, but even with so many the net was not torn. Jesus said to them, “Come and have breakfast.” None of the disciples dared ask him, “Who are you?” They knew it was the Lord. Jesus came, took the bread and gave it to them, and did the same with the fish. This was now the third time Jesus appeared to his disciples after he was raised from the dead.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 02-03/2020
Hariri Hospital: One new Covid-19 case recorded today, two recoveries
Lebanon Registers Four New COVID-19 Cases
One New Death, Four New Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon
Presidency Information Office denies circulated news about arranging Beiteddine Palace, expanding parts of it
Government Initiates Request for IMF Assistance
Schenker: Washington Checking Lebanon’s Govt. Rescue Plan
Aoun to Sputnik: Keen on Security, Free Demonstration and Expression
Lebanon: Govt Economic Plan Met With Cheers, Reservations
Money Changers Syndicate: We will pursue our strike, with the possibility of legal escalation
Jumblatt: It is time for some rigid minds within PSP to get out of the logic of personalization and selfishness
Energy Ministry: Production of Zouk and Jiyeh plants may decrease due to lack of fuel in conformity with specifications
Kanaan: Waste solution is required, not a 'fait accompli' imposed on Metn every 4 years
Hoballah: Central Bank’s pledge to transfer 100 million USD to the industrial sector has not yet been executed
Mossad gave Berlin intel on Hezbollah ops on German soil ahead of ban — report/The Timesw Of Israel & Agencies/May 02/2020
Hezbollah's new offensive - cutting holes in border fence raises tensions/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2020
Germany's Partial Ban of Hezbollah: A Half-Measure/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/May 02/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 02-03/2020

Over 3.34 Million COVID-19 Cases Worldwide, Death Toll Exceeds 237,000
Washington Approves Virus Drug as U.S. States Ease Lockdowns
U.S. Virus Death Toll Climbs by 1,883 in 24 Hours
Iraqi Activists Seek to Draw One Million Protesters
ISIS militants kill 10 in coordinated attack: Iraq officials
Israel Faces Western Pressure against Plan to Annex West Bank Lands
Putin to Assad: Syria’s prime economic assets are Russia’s due
Top Syrian businessman Rami Makhlouf shows rifts in Regime’s inner circle
North Korea's Kim Reappears after Weeks of Speculation
Terrorist attack in Sinai leaves Egyptians in mourning
Egypt Says Killed 2 Jihadists, Day after Deadly Blast Hits Army
Canada Bans Assault Weapons after Deadliest Shooting

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 02-03/2020
US Ambassador James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative for the Syrian war and the fight against ISIS to Asharq Al-Awsat: Russia Is Aware What Kind of Ally It Has in Syria/London- Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 02/2020
On the State and Human Rights ... Once a Difference Is Made/Zuhair Al-Harthi/ Asharq Al-Awsat/May 02/2020
Why Brexit needs good neighbors/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/May 02/2020
EU flunks its rendezvous with history/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/May 02/2020
Saudi Leverage Not Enough to Achieve Peace in Yemen/Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/May 02/2020
Saudi prince's vision marred by oil price — and a death/Simon Henderson/The Hill/May 02/2020
Arab Health Officials Discuss Fighting COVID-19/Jaafar Allawi, Saad Jaber, and Abdullah Algwizani/The Washington Institute/May 02/2020

 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 02-02/2020
Hariri Hospital: One new Covid-19 case recorded today, two recoveries
NNA/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
In its daily report on the latest developments of the novel Coronavirus, the Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced on Saturday that out of 155 laboratory tests conducted today, one new Covid-19 case has been recorded, while the remaining tests came out negative. It added that the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases infected with the virus that are currently present in the Hospital's isolation area has reached 6 cases, noting that it has admitted 11 cases suspected to be infected with the virus, who were transferred from other hospitals. Meanwhile, the hospital report also indicated that two infected cases have recovered today after their PCR examination tests turned out negative in both times, thus bringing the total number of full recoveries to 136 cases. “All those infected with the virus are receiving the necessary care in the isolation unit, and their condition is stable," the hospital report added. In conclusion, the Hariri Hospital indicated that more information on the number of infected cases on all Lebanese territories can be found in the daily report issued by the Ministry of Public Health.

Lebanon Registers Four New COVID-19 Cases
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
Lebanon announced on Saturday registering four new confirmed coronavirus cases, raising the total infections to 733. The country's death toll caused by COVID-19 has reached 25 after one patient passed away while receiving treatment in a private hospital in the city of Jbeil. The health ministry said recoveries have risen to 197 since last February. Lebanon had declared a state of health emergency to tackle the outbreak and imposed a lockdown and curfew to curb the outbreak.It recently extended the emergency to May 10, but is eyeing a return to normal by gradually easing restrictions over several weeks.

One New Death, Four New Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon
Naharnet/May 02/2020
A 92-year-old man died on Saturday from the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, as four new coronavirus cases were recorded.The Health Ministry said the new cases raise the number of people who retracted the virus to 733, and the number of deaths to 25. Two of the new cases were recorded among Lebanese expats who had been flown back to Lebanon recently. Saturday’s fatality from the virus was an elderly man who was being hospitalized in Jbeil. Lebanon has been on lockdown since mid-March to rein in the COVID-19 respiratory illness, which has infected 729 and killed 24 people in the Mediterranean country, according to official figures.

Presidency Information Office denies circulated news about arranging Beiteddine Palace, expanding parts of it
NNA/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
The Information Office of the Presidency of the Republic categorically denied, in a statement on Saturday, "what was published today on the page of an electronic website that the Republic Palace has selected a company to arrange the presidential headquarters in Beiteddine Palace, and to add rooms and expand parts of it.""This news is totally and completely groundless, because the Presidency of the Republic has not made any changes to the historic Beiteddine Palace except for the periodic restoration that took place in the summer of 2018," the statement indicated.Accordingly, it urged all media outlets to maintain accuracy in reporting news in the service of truth, and to verify all news related to the Presidency of the Republic with the Presidency Information Office before circulation.

Government Initiates Request for IMF Assistance
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
Lebanon signed a request for financial help from the International Monetary Fund on Friday, initiating a long process the government hopes will ease the country’s worst post-war economic crisis. "Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni signed a request for assistance from the International Monetary Fund," the government said, a day after announcing it would turn to the multilateral lender for help. Lebanon is in the thick of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. A lockdown to fight the coronavirus pandemic has only added to the heavily indebted country's economic woes, which include soaring inflation, a liquidity crunch, plummeting currency and a first sovereign debt default. An economic reform plan, unanimously approved on Thursday in a cabinet meeting, is expected to reduce Lebanon's enormous public debt burden from 170 percent of GDP to less than 100 percent. It aims to see positive economic growth restored from 2022. In tandem, the government will seek more than $10 billion dollars in financial support on top of $11 billion in grants and loans already pledged by international donors in 2018. It is unclear how much would come from the IMF. "We have taken the first step on the path of saving Lebanon from a deep financial" crisis, Diab said in a video shared on his Twitter page on Friday. "It would be difficult to get out of it without efficient and impactful help."Experts had lobbied for an IMF rescue as the only exit from Lebanon's financial slump, but some officials have said they are wary of recommendations the world body may impose. Forty-five percent of Lebanon's population now lives below the poverty line, according to official estimates, and tens of thousands have lost their jobs or seen their salaries slashed. The Lebanese pound, pegged to the dollar at 1,500 since 1997, reached record lows on the black market this week, selling for more than 4,000 to the greenback. The official rate of 1,500 pounds to the dollar remains unchanged, but the reform plan adopted by the government is "based on an estimation of a rate of 3,500", according to a copy of the document seen by AFP. "The peg to the US dollar that has been maintained over decades is now impossible to restore and must be revamped as part of the government programme," it added. "Going forward, the government intends to move to a more flexible exchange rate."

Schenker: Washington Checking Lebanon’s Govt. Rescue Plan

Naharnet/May 02/2020
U.S. assistant secretary for Near East affairs, David Schenker on Saturday welcomed Lebanon’s request for assistance from the International Monetary Fund, saying it is the government’s first step towards acknowledging the magnitude of the financial crisis in Lebanon. Schenker said that Washington was “looking into” the rescue plan put by the Lebanese government, but he said that the matter “ultimately depends on the Lebanese government’s willingness to take necessary steps in order to obtain the IMF’s assistance,” he said in remarks to Sky News Arabia. He added that money provided by the IMF “is not free aid, but rather is conditional by reform steps that help create returns for the state and allow the IMF to exercise control over the state's economy.”Schenker said it is remarkable “to see whether this government, of which Hizbullah is part of, is able to fully commit to reform, since it depends on illegal financing and corruption and avoids paying its dues to the state, such as customs and taxes.”On the U.S. relations with Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, Schenker said it is no secret that Washington has a “fruitful relationship with the Governor of BDL Riad Salameh, but he stressed that the relationship with Lebanon is a relationship with institutions.”

Aoun to Sputnik: Keen on Security, Free Demonstration and Expression

Naharnet/May 02/2020
President Michel Aoun on Saturday expressed concern over attempts of some to exploit public anger against corruption for individual interests, affirming respect for the right to free demonstration and expression. In remarks he made to Sputnik International News, Aoun said: “I truly hope that all officials and political parties in Lebanon realize that the Lebanese public anger exploded in the face of corruption, the loss of job opportunities, and the looting of state finances over many years. I understand that people want quick and tangible changes, but addressing the repercussions of the past thirty years will not happen overnight.” “In the past I called them (protesters) to maintain vigilance in monitoring the course of things, and here I am calling them again to this. But we cannot ask a government designated less than 100 days ago to perform miracles,” said the President.However, Aoun asserted that efforts will continue to preserve a stable security situation, “we will not allow tampering with the security situation, but we will continue to respect the right for free demonstration and expression.”

Lebanon: Govt Economic Plan Met With Cheers, Reservations

Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
The Lebanese government formally requested the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday, one day after the announcement of the long-awaited economic plan. Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Minister of Finance Ghazi Wazni signed the request for assistance, which was cautiously welcomed by the different political forces. Diab described the move as “a pivotal moment in the history of Lebanon.”“We took the first step towards a real project to save Lebanon from the deep financial crisis, which is difficult to overcome without effective assistance,” he said. He hoped that the approval of the plan and the signing of the request for assistance would be “a turning point in the downward path of Lebanon’s financial and economic realities.”President Michel Aoun invited the heads of parliamentary blocs to a meeting in Baabda Palace on Wednesday to present the government’s reform program.
Meanwhile, the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) said it could in “no way” endorse a plan it was not consulted on despite being “a key part of any solution,” Reuters reported. The association called on members of parliament to reject it in part for infringing on private property rights, according to Reuters.
The ABL said in a statement that the plan failed to address inflationary pressures and might lead to hyperinflation. “As laid out in the plan, the domestic restructuring will further destroy confidence in Lebanon both domestically and internationally,” ABL added.

Money Changers Syndicate: We will pursue our strike, with the possibility of legal escalation
NNA/May 02/2020
The Syndicate of Money Changers in Lebanon held an extraordinary meeting on Saturday, within the framework of its open sessions, chaired by Syndicate Head Mahmoud Mrad and in the presence of its members, where the conferees decided to continue with their strike in protest against the arrest of a number of legal money changers. The conferees also discussed the possibility of resorting to legal escalation measures in objection against subjecting the Syndicate members to abuse and oppression, and closing their legitimate money exchange companies and institutions with red wax seals. The Syndicate indicated that despite its follow-up with the concerned sides, no positive on-ground response has been detected thus far. It added that a number of money changers are still detained in spite of the outcome of the meeting with the Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, and the Financial Prosecutor General, Judge Ali Ibrahim, especially in terms of requesting the legal money changers to abide by the set exchange rate.

Jumblatt: It is time for some rigid minds within PSP to get out of the logic of personalization and selfishness
NNA/May 02/2020
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, said Saturday via his Twitter account: "It is time for some bigoted mindsets within the Progressive Socialist Party to get out of the logic of personalization and selfishness. The Party should be a case of accepting and helping others in any action that is in the public interest. It was the civil society that triumphed against the Bisri Dam and persuaded me of the grievous damage. I did not ask for banners of appreciation and welcome in my name in Bisri!"

Energy Ministry: Production of Zouk and Jiyeh plants may decrease due to lack of fuel in conformity with specifications

NNA/May 02/2020
Ministry of Water and Energy announced, in an issued statement on Saturday, that it "did not give permission to unload the marine tanker ‘Asopos’ loaded with fuel oil that is needed by the thermal production plants in Zouk and Jiyeh, since it was found that there is a discrepancy in the result of the tests between those issued at the source and those conducted in the oil installation laboratories, under the supervision of one of the monitoring companies charged by the General Directorate of Oil.”The statement disclosed that “the test results showed that the fuel loaded on the aforementioned tanker does not conform to the contractual specifications in terms of density.”Consequently, the Ministry indicated that the shortage in fuel as a result, may lead to a decrease in the production of electrical energy in the thermal plants of Zouk and Jiyeh, adding that it has requested the Lebanese Electricity Corporation to work to compensate for the decrease in the production of electrical energy through other production plants. “The Ministry of Energy and Water will inform citizens of any developments in this regard," the statement concluded.

Kanaan: Waste solution is required, not a 'fait accompli' imposed on Metn every 4 years
NNA /May 02/2020
MP Ibrahim Kanaan stressed, in an interview with MTV Station this evening, the need to find a solution for the public waste issue in the northern Metn region. "What is required is not to put people and municipalities every four years under the status quo in the northern Metn region, between accepting the expansion of landfills that are intolerable in a residential area of 300 thousand people and between allowing the thrash to pile up on the streets,” said Kanaan. He considered that "the solution cannot be secured by a municipality, a group of deputies, or a civil society, but rather by the central authority that has promised through cabinet decisions in three successive governments since 2014, but has not implemented its promises and decisions." "It is true that the current government inherited a certain situation, but there is absolutely no confidence in the state’s management of the waste file in all of Lebanon, especially in the northern Metn region,” Kanaan maintained. He criticized the fact that the Naameh landfill can be closed without anyone coming near it, so is the case of the Costabrava landfill if it decides to close, while in the case of the Metn landfill, there are those who believe that everyone can approach it. Kanaan emphasized that the Metn officials will not accept that the status quo persists. "We asked the Prime Minister and the Minister of Environment for a sustainable solution, and that we move to another stage in the northern Metn coast that includes the best shores, so we move to the factories and implement the projects that have been presented in recent years." “We accept the decentralization solution, provided that it is not at the expense of the health of the people of Metn and the region,” Kanaan concluded.

Hoballah: Central Bank’s pledge to transfer 100 million USD to the industrial sector has not yet been executed
NNA/May 02/2020
"We had rejoiced at the news of transferring a hundred million US dollars from the Central Bank of Lebanon to the Ministry of Industry; however, we wish to see this implemented on the ground, as until now there has been no circular issued by Governor Riad Salameh to the banks in this regard," said Minister of Industry, Imad Hoballah, on Saturday. In this connection, Hoballah called on the Central Bank Governor, and on the commercial banks, to "release the depositors’ money, especially the industrialists' funds."“If they do not release the depositors' money, the country will not be able to continue to operate in this manner, for it is an illegal and criminal act against the industry and Lebanon," Hoballah asserted. He hoped that the message would be understood, and that the transfer would be executed to assist the industrialists in importing the raw materials needed for their productions. Hoballah encouraged investors and depositors to invest in the industry instead of putting their money in banks and real estate, and to invest their money in the productive sectors. "Industry and agriculture are essential pillars for the advancement of the Lebanese economy, and without them there is no progress,” he underlined. The Industry Minister’s words came during a tour he conducted today in the areas of Sidon and Zahrani, visiting a number of factories and the Chamber of Commerce in Sidon, where he was received by the Chamber Head Mohamad Saleh, members of its board of directors, and several industrialists and owners of productive sectors, as well as the Industry Authority Heads in the South and Nabatiyeh regions. Hoballah paid tribute to the laborers and factory workers, commending their valuable contribution to the industry sector, and promising to stand by their side all throughout his mandate as Minister of Industry, deeming them “the pillars of the country’s aspired economic revival”.

Mossad gave Berlin intel on Hezbollah ops on German soil ahead of ban — report
The Timesw Of Israel & Agencies/May 02/2020
تايمز اوف إسرائيل: الموساد الإسرايلي زود المخابرات الألمانية بمواقع مخازن الأسلحة والمتفجرات التابعة لحزب الله في المانيا

Unnamed Israeli official tells TV Germans were provided info on warehouses where terror group stashed materials for explosives, as well as money laundering networks
Israel’s Mossad spy agency gave information to Germany on Hezbollah’s activities on its soil ahead of the country banning the Lebanese terror group this week, Channel 12 news reported Saturday.
Germany branded the entirety of the Iranian-backed group — both the military and political wings — a “Shiite terrorist organization” on Thursday, with dozens of police and special forces storming mosques and associations across the country linked to the group.
According to the TV report, Israel carried out a months-long delicate operation to assess the group’s operations in Germany and presented its findings to German intelligence and law agencies. Mossad reportedly gave Germany information about warehouses in the south of the country where Hezbollah stashed hundreds of kilograms of ammonium nitrate, a material used to make explosives. Israeli intelligence was also said to have handed over details of key individuals in Hezbollah’s operations in Germany, including money networks used to launder cash and transfer millions of euros into the terror group’s bank accounts as well as to fund activities within the country.
An unnamed Israeli official told Channel 12 that the operation was complex and provided key evidence to German authorities. “The move is the result of many months of work with all parties in Germany. The heads of services were required to present explicit evidence and legal proof… linking the organization to significant terrorist activity, and that is what we did,” the official said.“Bruno Kahl, the head of the German intelligence organization BND, is a close friend of Mossad,” he added. Germany on Thursday officially announced that it has outlawed activities by Hezbollah. In a dramatic departure from Berlin’s previous policy, which was based on the European Union’s stance, the new ban does not differentiate between the group’s military and political wings.
Hezbollah activities “violate criminal law and the organization opposes the concept of international understanding,” said German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. The group, headed by Hassan Nasrallah, denies Israel’s right to exist and “supports the armed terrorist fight” against the Jewish state, his ministry said in a statement issued Thursday. “It is to be expected that Hezbollah will continue to plot terrorist acts against Israel and Israeli interests also outside the Middle East.”Early on Thursday, German police raided four groups associated with Hezbollah in various locations across the country to ensure that “evidence of potential sub-organizations in Germany could not be destroyed when this ban was announced,” the Interior Ministry said.
Since there is no formal German branch of Hezbollah, Berlin cannot outlaw the organization as such, according to an Interior Ministry statement. Hence the government undertook to ban Hezbollah’s activities, which has the same legal consequences, the statement explained: “It is prohibited to use or display symbols and to organize and participate in assemblies; assets are confiscated and forfeited. Violations of bans on organizations and activities are equally punishable.”The new policy prohibits the showing of Hezbollah signs and symbols in public, including “in an assembly or in print, audio or visual media, pictures or portrayals.” Even the symbol of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts, Hezbollah’s youth movement, is banned. The group’s assets will be confiscated.
Israel welcomed Berlin’s new policy. “It is a very important decision and a valuable and significant step in the global fight against terrorism,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement released shortly after the decision was announced. “I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the German government for this step and I am sure that many governments in the Middle East as well as the thousands of victims of Hezbollah’s terror join in thanking them for this decision.”Katz called on other European countries to follow the German move. “All the parts of Hezbollah, including the social, political and military wings, are terror organizations and they should be treated as such,” he said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Germany for the move and also called on other countries to follow suit. “Any country advocating peace needs to expel terror groups and not give them any direct or indirect support,” he said in a statement released by his office.
German authorities estimate that 1,050 people living in the country are affiliated with Hezbollah. Iran on Friday slammed Germany’s ban on the activities of the Lebanese terrorist organization on its soil, saying it would face consequences for its decision to give in to the “propaganda machine” of Israel and US.
In a statement issued overnight, Iran’s foreign ministry said the Hezbollah ban ignores “realities in West Asia.”The Islamic Republic said the move was based solely on the goals of the “propaganda machine of the Zionists and America’s confused regime.”
It “strongly” condemned the decision it said showed “complete disrespect to the government and nation of Lebanon, as Hezbollah is a formal and legitimate part of the country’s government and parliament.”
Iran said Hezbollah had a “key role in fighting Daesh’s terrorism in the region,” using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group.“The German government must face the negative consequences of its decision in the fight against real terrorist groups in the region,” it added.
*Raphael Ahren contributed to this report.

Hezbollah's new offensive - cutting holes in border fence raises tensions
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2020
جيروزاليم بوست: اعتداءات حزب الله الحدودية بتقطيعه أسلاك في السياج الحدودي يتسبب بتوتر مع إسرائيل

Hezbollah knows that it is sitting on a powder keg, in a Lebanon that is financially strapped.
Bright, fading yellow lights hung in the air over northern Israel on Friday, April 17. They were illumination rounds fired after reports of activity along Israel’s border fence with Lebanon.
Residents in the North witnessed the flares. Soon images and video were being shared online.
“We found three locations where our security fence along the Blue Line with Lebanon was damaged tonight,” the IDF said.
Concerns and memories of past Hezbollah attacks meant there was a security alert along the northern border. No infiltration had occurred, though. Nevertheless, Israel viewed the incident as severe and held Lebanon responsible.
Three sections of the fence were damaged that evening. This was no ordinary damage by wild boar or a human error. It was also not an innocuous event, such as drug smuggling or some farmer lost near the border.
The next morning revealed propaganda posters showing late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran and Hezbollah have blamed Israel for killing Mughniyeh in Damascus in 2008, and the US killed Soleimani and Muhandis in a Baghdad airstrike in January. Whoever put up the poster wrote “Revenge” in Farsi with a hashtag. Iran has vowed “hard revenge” for the killings.
The posters were a message from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Sitting in his bunker, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was watching. His organization dominates on its side of the fence. It put the posters near the fence cuttings to send a message that it could breach the barrier.
On April 18, IDF soldiers repaired the fence near the border communities. In this area, Israeli communities sit right on the fence, within view of Lebanon. At Metulla, the northernmost community, Hezbollah posters and flags sit on hillsides across the border. Old bunkers from past wars are dug into the earth there. Bucolic fields dot the landscape, and Lebanese villages can be seen in the distance.
Several years ago, when Hezbollah was threatening attacks on Israel, it put up a poster showing the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, arguing that one day it would “liberate” al-Aksa.
This is Iran’s narrative. Tehran sees Israel and the US as its main enemies and vows to destroy the Jewish state. It has funded Hezbollah, sent precision-guided munitions and helped Hezbollah stockpile more than 150,000 rockets. Iran holds an annual “Quds Day” dedicated to Jerusalem, to express support for the Palestinians and oppose Zionism.
Hezbollah’s April message was part of a long context of tit-for-tat attacks and tensions along the border.
The terrorist movement appears to act with impunity inside Lebanon. It has hijacked the government in Beirut such that it holds enough seats and influence in parliament to make sure it can control who becomes president. It also now influences the Health Ministry. It carries out its own foreign policy, sending troops to fight in Syria and also sending Hezbollah members to Iraq to help corral pro-Iranian militias there. It runs smuggling operations across Syria to Iraq, and has put up bases and safe houses like mushrooms in Syria, including near Israel’s Golan border.
HEZBOLLAH WAS clearly riding high from the April border event. A journalist from Hezbollah-linked Al-Manar media took a photo near one of the fence cuttings on the border with Israel.
“Our brother Ali Soeib reporting one of the gaps in the bordering town east of Meis el-Jabal in Marjeyoun, Lebanon,” wrote supporters.
Other Lebanese journalists posed for selfies. Hezbollah and allies also filmed IDF soldiers repairing the fence. They also filmed a robot and drone next to the fence on the day after the cutting, as Israel tried to investigate several bags left behind near the openings. By midday two cuttings were repaired.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz ordered the ministry to file a complaint with the UN Security Council, asserting the fence cutting infringed upon Israel’s sovereignty. He told the UN that Jerusalem expects Lebanon’s government to prevent these kinds of threats to security. “The state of Israel thoroughly condemns these attempts to breach the border fence.”
Israel believes this incident threatens the entire region because incidents like these can lead to a wider conflict.
Iran was chuffed, with its Tasnim media bragging about the great threat Hezbollah poses to Israel, and portraying the operation as gallant, striking fear into the hearts of Israelis.
Some of this is just the usual Tehran bragging. Iran has been sending weapons to Hezbollah for years, but Israel has said that it has also carried out more than 1,000 airstrikes in Syria designed to curtail these efforts. In the first four months of 2020 the Syrian regime accused Israel of more than five airstrikes, at bases as far north as Homs and near Palmyra in the Syrian desert.
Iran, in turn, put out new photos of Ababil-3 drones, a flying machine with twin-tails, showing it carrying anti-tank smart bombs. Iran claimed it had “replicated” the bombs from Israeli Spike missiles. Iran also unveiled an anti-ship missile and launched a military satellite on April 22, claiming that now it has new strategic intelligence abilities.
For Hezbollah, of course, all this is good news; its main ally and backer is getting stronger.
The fence-line incident blended these tensions with some of the braggadocio that Lebanese Hezbollah uses to highlight its actions. Hardly a month goes by without Nasrallah giving a speech about how great his organization is and its far reach in the region.
Hezbollah has even sought to ally with the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis’ official slogan includes the term “death to Israel” and “curse the Jews, victory to Islam.” Of course, Hezbollah finds this attractive.
But Hezbollah also knows that it is sitting on a powder keg, in a Lebanon that is financially strapped.
For instance, Lebanon purposely made a show of force as the IDF repaired the fence. The same show of force was made in days prior to the fence cutting, as the IDF investigated other activity along the length of it.
This was part of bubbling tensions. Lebanese social media spread rumors online that there was increased Israeli drone activity. Pro-Hezbollah activists termed the Hezbollah actions “brave” and a lesson to the “murderous” Israel’s “super fence.”
Hezbollah soldiers were like “ghosts,” these supporters said. Al-Akhbar media in Lebanon wrote a huge report about Hezbollah’s actions, detailing every aspect of the fence cutting.
The Akhbar report claimed that Hezbollah has returned with confidence to the border area. To confront what Hezbollah claimed was Israel’s use of drones and “dense enemy deployments and fixed military positions equipped with sophisticated monitoring and eavesdropping devices,” Hezbollah developed new methods. “The resistance,” as Hezbollah calls itself, sent cadres of fighters who were insulated from other Hezbollah operations in Iraq and Syria to the border with Israel to prepare for “day and night” activity confronting Israel.
Akhbar claimed Hezbollah monitored Israeli movements and Israel’s “high level of technical work” that is aimed at “preventing kidnappings and preventing infiltrations of [Israeli] settlements.”
Hezbollah “studied the additional options to respond to the assassinations or attempted assassinations of resistance fighters in Lebanon and Syria, which happened last week [April 15].”
The report makes it seem like Hezbollah felt this was some extraordinary special operation, with the “resistance” members watching the Friday sunset before setting off in three groups of “Islamic resistance advancing towards specific points on the fence with occupied Palestine.”
Along 34 km., Hezbollah teams acted to cut three holes, the movement claimed. One was near Avivim, another near the “colony of Metulla,” and a third near Meis el-Jabal close to the Manara cliff.
Hezbollah then watched the next day as “enemy snipers fired at the targets the resistance left behind.” Hezbollah seems to have chuckled at this, claiming they purposely left behind “useless wires and a broken cleaning machine [vacuum cleaner].”
Perhaps more serious is the claim in Akhbar that the size of the breach near Meis el-Jabal “exceeded six meters, allowing vehicles to cross into occupied Palestine in depth, not exclusively for infiltrating fighters.” This implies Hezbollah’s larger warning was that it could launch an invasion.
This conjures up memories from a trip to the same border area in Israel in June 2017, when locals said the next conflict with Hezbollah would be bloody. At the time, reports indicated border communities could be evacuated, and that Hezbollah would seek to grab territory as part of its initial attack.
We now know that Hezbollah built tunnels under the border. In December 2018 Israel launched Operation Northern Shield to root out the tunnels. I was on the border those nights as well, as Israel uprooted the threat.
HEZBOLLAH’S ATTEMPT to portray itself as “ghost-like” along the border is in stark contrast to some of its bumbling in Syria.
Along a pretty section of the Syria-Lebanon border, about a 40-minute drive from Damascus into the rolling hills that are north of Mount Hermon, Hezbollah men dashed from a Jeep Grand Cherokee on April 15. The usually quiet Syrian border village of Jdeidat Yabous, known mostly for Syrians crossing during the last nine years of Syrian civil war, was shattered with an explosion. The jeep’s back roof was torn up like a sardine can ripped apart.
According to reports, Mustafa Mughniyeh, son of the late Imad, was in the jeep with two colleagues when a missile fell next to it. Suspecting the next missile would hit them, they grabbed duffle bags and dashed from the vehicle. One man came back and got more items. Then the jeep exploded. Iranian media blamed Israel.
These incidents have a long background. Israel’s border with Lebanon has often been unstable. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to stop Palestinians firing rockets at the North, leaving Lebanon in 2000 after years of war against Hezbollah. In 2006 Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war in the North that began with an attack on an Israeli patrol and kidnapping of bodies. Commander Imad Mughniyeh, a key conduit to Iran, was killed in Syria in 2008. Tensions grew with Hezbollah during the Syrian civil war, as Hezbollah played a larger role in Syria.
A strike by Hezbollah targeted Israeli vehicles near the border in 2015, after Imad Mughniyeh’s son Jihad was killed in an airstrike. Two Israeli soldiers were killed. Another attack targeting an IDF border patrol took place in January 2016. In August, after Israel killed a Hezbollah drone team in Lebanon, Hezbollah fired anti-tank rounds into Israel, destroying an IDF vehicle near Avivim.
For Hezbollah, this border is its cause and legacy. It says it is “resisting” Israel and claims it wants to retake areas Israel “occupies,” including a slice of territory – Mount Dov, aka Shaba Farms – north of Metulla. Hezbollah lives off its stories of confronting Israel, airing footage in 2019 of the 2015 attack as if to claim it could do it again.
The border incidents have a kind of clockwork about them. In each incident Hezbollah attempts to respond to what it claims is an Israeli action with a reaction. The airstrike on the vehicle on the Syria-Lebanon border on April 15 led to the fence cuttings. An incident in Beirut in August, in which Hezbollah claimed it downed an Israeli drone, led to the attack near Avivim last year. That, at least, is one narrative.
There have been other incidents as well. A Hezbollah member was killed near the Golan in the Syrian village of Khadr on February 27 and another Hezbollah member was gunned down in southern Lebanon in March.
Hezbollah threatens retaliation but is caught up in its own internal struggles at home in Lebanon. There is a budget crisis, and the organization does not appear to want to provoke war. It does want to show, via leaking information about its fence cutting, that it poses a threat.

Germany's Partial Ban of Hezbollah: A Half-Measure
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/May 02/2020
سورن كرين/معهد كايتستون: الحظرالألماني الجزئي لحزب الله هو نصف إجراء
The ban is in fact a compromise measure between German lawmakers who want to take a harder line against Iran and those who do not. As a result, the ban falls far short of a complete prohibition on Hezbollah and appears aimed at providing the German government with political cover that allows Germany to claim that it has banned the group even if it has not.
According to the German Parliament, the Bundestag, a complete ban of Hezbollah is impossible because the group's structures in Germany are "not currently ascertainable."
It is utterly implausible that Germany, one of the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries in Europe, is unable to ascertain the organizational structure of Hezbollah within its own borders. More plausible is that Germany wants to project a public appearance of cracking down on Hezbollah while maintaining direct access to its leadership.
"Your resolution has two central weaknesses. The first weakness is that you are asking for only an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot). We want a specific organizational ban (Organisationsverbot). According to the Crime Fighting Law (Verbrechensbekämpfungsgesetz) of 1994, the activity ban is the weaker legal means when compared to an organizational ban. There is no reason in the world why you would fight a terrorist organization with the weaker means and not the stronger." — Beatrix von Storch, deputy chairwoman of the AfD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag.
"What is needed is the complete ban of Hezbollah. Hezbollah's propaganda and terror financing in Germany must be stopped. The mosque associations that exist must be disbanded, and most importantly, Hezbollah supporters must be deported. This, by the way, is also demanded by the Bundestag's Anti-Semitism Resolution, which expressly calls for the deportation of supporters of anti-Semitism. If this does not apply to supporters of Hezbollah, which wants to send Jews to the gas chambers, and wants to destroy Israel, then to whom could it apply?" — Beatrix von Storch.
"Today's completely late action by the federal government is primarily a symbolic gesture. If the government were really serious about annihilating Hezbollah in Germany, it should have established a special commission and provided the security authorities with financial and human resources to identify and dismantle the group nationwide." — Stefan Schubert, German security expert.
The German government, after years of equivocating, has announced what amounts to a partial ban on the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah. Pictured: Police in Berlin raid al-Irschad mosque, which is linked to Hezbollah, on April 30, 2020, following the announcement of the partial ban.
The German government, after years of equivocating, has announced what amounts to a partial ban on the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah — Arabic for "The Party of Allah" — in Germany.
The so-called ban — supported by the center-right Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats, the two parties that make up Germany's ruling coalition, and also by the classical liberal Free Democrats — has been hailed as "important," "significant," and "long overdue."
The ban is in fact a compromise measure between German lawmakers who want to take a harder line against Iran and those who do not. As a result, the ban falls far short of a complete prohibition on Hezbollah and appears aimed at providing the German government with political cover that allows Germany to claim that it has banned the group even if it has not.
On April 30, the German government's Federal Gazette (Bundesanzeiger) reported that Hezbollah was subject to an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot), but not an organizational ban (Organisationsverbot) — an important legal distinction because the activity ban is weaker than the organizational ban.
The two-page document, which carefully avoids referring to Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, prohibits the group's logo to be displayed "in public, in meetings or in writings." In addition, any assets that Hezbollah may have in Germany are to be confiscated.
The ban does not call for Hezbollah mosques or cultural centers to be closed, nor does it require that members of the group be deported. The ban also does not prohibit Hezbollah operatives from travelling to Germany.
After the so-called ban was made public, German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer ordered police to carry out raids on four mosques and cultural centers linked to Hezbollah: Berlin's al-Irschad mosque, two cultural centers in Bremen and Münster, and a Lebanese community group in Dortmund.
Hezbollah, however, is believed to have more than 30 mosques and cultural centers in Germany, where the group is estimated to have upwards of 1,000 operatives, according to German intelligence assessments. It was not immediately clear why German police did not raid all of the mosques and cultural centers linked to Hezbollah.
In any event, the German government effectively gave Hezbollah at least four months to move its assets and operatives out of Germany. The newspaper Die Welt explained:
"It is still unclear what concrete effects the raids will have.... Berlin SPD politician Tom Schreiber suspects that Hezbollah was prepared for the searches. 'I assume that an attempt was made to relocate assets and take people out of the country,' Schreiber told Welt. 'The question is, what exactly has the ban produced: what assets have been secured, what procedures have been initiated, what further information has been gained about the Hezbollah scene in Germany?'"
On December 19, 2019, the German Parliament, known as the Bundestag, approved a three-page resolution — "Effective Action against Hezbollah" ("Wirksames Vorgehen gegen die Hisbollah") — that called on the German government to ban the activities of Hezbollah on German territory.
According to the Bundestag, a complete ban of Hezbollah is impossible because the group's structures in Germany are "not currently ascertainable." The Bundestag's statement in the original German states:
"Hezbollah-related association structures, which could justify an organizational ban, are not currently ascertainable." ("Der Hisbollah zuzurechnende Vereinsstrukturen, die ein vereinsrechtliches Organisationsverbot begründen könnten, seien derzeit jedoch nicht feststellbar.")
The Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei, stated:
"Hezbollah-related association structures, which could justify an organizational ban (vereinsrechtliches Organisationsverbot), are not ascertainable, despite efforts by the federal government since 2008. An organizational ban is therefore not an option due to the lack of a verifiable domestic organizational structure. However, we are free to pursue an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot) that we have also applied to other terrorist organizations that lack a demonstrable domestic organizational structure."
It is utterly implausible that Germany, one of the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries in Europe, is unable to ascertain the organizational structure of Hezbollah within its own borders. More plausible is that Germany wants to project a public appearance of cracking down on Hezbollah while maintaining direct access to its leadership.
The idea to ban Hezbollah in its entirety originated with Germany's conservative party, Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), the third-largest party in the German parliament. The AfD has not been pleased with the partial ban. Addressing the German parliament on December 19, when the Bundestag called on the German government partially to ban Hezbollah, the deputy chairwoman of the AfD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, Beatrix von Storch, explained:
"Six months ago, the AfD presented a resolution in the Bundestag to ban Hezbollah, a resolution which you vehemently rejected and which, since then, you have blocked in caucus. Now, six months later, you are collectively rushing through the door that we have politically opened. If this would happen with more AfD proposals, Germany would be in a much better place....
"Nevertheless, your resolution has two central weaknesses. The first weakness is that you are asking for only an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot). We want a specific organizational ban (Organisationsverbot). According to the Crime Fighting Law (Verbrechensbekämpfungsgesetz) of 1994, the activity ban is the weaker legal means when compared to an organizational ban. There is no reason in the world why you would fight a terrorist organization with the weaker means and not the stronger. You are making a loud bark, but you are not biting.
"The second fundamental weakness of your resolution is your justification for using the weaker means. You write, and I quote, 'Hezbollah-related association structures, which could justify an organizational ban (vereinsrechtliches Organisationsverbot), are not ascertainable.' That is objectively false, as confirmed by the 2017 and 2018 annual reports of Germany's domestic intelligence agency (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, BfV). The 2018 report states, and I quote, 'In Germany, Hezbollah followers maintain organizational and ideological cohesion, among other things, in local mosque associations, which are primarily financed by donations.' Do you even read your own intelligence reports? In case it is too long for you to read, it is located on page 214. Just check it!
"If you do not want to touch Hezbollah's mosque associations, then this resolution is pure symbolism politics (Symbolpolitik), and symbolism politics cannot continue. What is needed is the complete ban of Hezbollah. Hezbollah's propaganda and terror financing in Germany must be stopped. The mosque associations that exist must be disbanded, and most importantly, Hezbollah supporters must be deported. This, by the way, is also demanded by the Bundestag's Anti-Semitism Resolution, which expressly calls for the deportation of supporters of anti-Semitism. If this does not apply to supporters of Hezbollah, which wants to send Jews to the gas chambers, and wants to destroy Israel, then to whom could it apply?"
On April 30, after the German government announced its half-measure against Hezbollah, von Storch said:
"Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has finally pushed through a ban on Hezbollah in Germany, which the Alternative for Germany (AfD) faction has been demanding for a very long time but was blocked in the Bundestag. The AfD welcomes Seehofer's measures against the Hezbollah terrorist organization, although they are not sufficiently extensive. The AfD continues to demand that the Islamic terrorist organization be completely banned from organizing and we regret that our request in the Bundestag has been rejected. There is no place for Israel haters in Germany."
The AfD's Chairman in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, Petr Bystron, added:
"This step was long overdue. The Federal Government has finally given in to pressure from the AfD parliamentary group. Hezbollah was allowed to do mischief in Germany for far too long: the Al-Quds March in Berlin demanded the destruction of Israel, speakers were allowed to spread their anti-Semitic agitation in Berlin and Hamburg.
"Now further steps must follow: Taxpayer support of anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) organizations close to the SPD, the Greens and the Left, must end, as well as the taxpayer's funding of the Hezbollah government in Lebanon and the Islamic terrorist regime in Tehran. We will now pay particular attention to the infiltration of German universities and public broadcasting by sympathizers of these terrorist organizations. The 'ban on activity' was only the first step. The fight goes on."
On April 30, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted:
"Hezbollah denies Israel's right to exist, threatens violence and terror, and continues massively to upgrade its missile arsenal. In Germany we have to exhaust the rule of law to tackle Hezbollah's criminal and terrorist activities."
Maas, however, is one of Europe's top supporters of Iran, which shares Hezbollah's visceral hatred of Israel. On March 31, Maas proudly announced that European countries, led by Germany, had circumvented U.S. sanctions on Tehran.
The AfD's concerns about Germany's half-measures regarding Hezbollah are justified. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), for instance, has been subject to an "activity ban" in Germany since 1993. Despite the ban, the PKK remains very active in Germany. The group had more than 14,500 members in Germany in 2020, according to German intelligence.
German security expert Stefan Schubert wrote that Germany's partial ban on Hezbollah reflects a lack of political will to crack down on the group. He also predicted that the ban will likely have only a very small impact on Hezbollah's activities in Germany:
"Today's completely late action by the federal government is primarily a symbolic gesture. If the government were really serious about annihilating Hezbollah in Germany, it should have established a special commission and provided the security authorities with financial and human resources to identify and dismantle the group nationwide."
The most immediate focus of the ban appears aimed at ending the annual anti-Israel Quds Day (Jerusalem Day) rally, originally scheduled to be held in Berlin on May 22, the last Friday of Ramadan. The annual rallies, held in cities around the world, are often attended by Hezbollah operatives and sympathizers waving the yellow Hezbollah flag and shouting anti-Israel slogans. After the German government announced its ban on Hezbollah, the organizers of this year's rally in Berlin decided to cancel the event.
Worldwide, Britain, Canada, Israel, the Netherlands, the United States, the 22-member Arab League, the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council as well as Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras and Paraguay have banned Hezbollah in its entirety.
The European Union, however, has resisted pressure to outlaw all of Hezbollah. European officials, who make an artificial distinction between Hezbollah's military and political wing, regularly claim that a total ban might destabilize Lebanon's political system, which is now dominated by the terrorist group. Others are worried that a complete ban of Hezbollah could hinder political and diplomatic efforts to salvage the now-defunct 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.
The European Union reluctantly banned Hezbollah's "military wing" in July 2013, after the group was implicated in the July 2012 bombing of a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria. Five Israelis were killed in the attack.
Hezbollah officials, however, have repeatedly affirmed that the group operates as a single organization with a unified system of command and control. In a July 2013 interview with the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, conducted immediately after the EU announced its partial ban on Hezbollah, the group's spokesman, Ibrahim Mussawi, said:
"Hezbollah is a single large organization, we have no wings that are separate from one another. What's being said in Brussels doesn't exist for us."
Hezbollah's deputy secretary general, Naim Qassem, repeated that the group is structurally unified:
"We don't have a military wing and a political one; we don't have Hezbollah on one hand and the resistance party on the other.... Every element of Hezbollah, from commanders to members as well as our various capabilities, is in the service of the resistance, and we have nothing but the resistance as a priority."
Qassem, in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Mustaqbal, said:
"Hezbollah has one single leadership, and its name is the Decision-Making Shura Council. It manages the political activity, the jihad activity, the cultural and the social activities. Hezbollah's Secretary General is the head of the Shura Council and also the head of the Jihad Council, and this means that we have one leadership, with one administration."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
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The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 02-03/2020

Over 3.34 Million COVID-19 Cases Worldwide, Death Toll Exceeds 237,000

Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
More than 3.34 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 237,137 have died, according to a Reuters tally. Infections have been reported in more than 210 countries and territories since the first cases were identified in China in December 2019. Meanwhile, it was reported that an experimental drug seems to be the first effective treatment for COVID-19 has unleashed a flurry of interest. Talk turned Thursday to how quickly the federal Food and Drug Administration might act on Gilead Sciences’s remdesivir after preliminary results from a major study found it shortened the recovery time by an average of four days for people hospitalized with COVID-19. “You do now have a drug that you have proven can actually work on the virus,” the National Institutes of Health’s Dr. Anthony Fauci told The Associated Press. “Will it be an overwhelming cure? No, of course not,” Fauci said. But with its use, “you will free up hospital beds, you will take less stress on the health care system.”No drug currently is approved for treating the virus, which has killed thousands of people worldwide since it emerged late last year.

Washington Approves Virus Drug as U.S. States Ease Lockdowns
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
American authorities approved an experimental drug for emergency use on coronavirus patients, as more US states eased pandemic lockdowns despite another spike in deaths from the disease. The approval is the latest step in a global push to find viable treatments and a vaccine for the coronavirus, which has left half of humanity under some form of lockdown, hammered the world economy, and infected more than 3.3 million people. Remdesivir, an antiviral drug initially developed to treat Ebola, was given the green light on Friday after a major trial found that it boosted recovery in serious COVID-19 patients.
"It's really a very promising situation," President Donald Trump said on Friday at the White House, where he was joined by Daniel O'Day, CEO of Gilead Sciences, which developed Remdesivir. Remdesivir incorporates itself into the virus's genome, short-circuiting its replication process. The drug approval came as the US leaders struggled with growing pressure from citizens wearying of stay-at-home orders. With about 1.1 million confirmed coronavirus cases, nearly 65,000 of them fatal, the United States has the highest tolls of any country, and Trump is keen for a turnaround as the world's largest economy reels with tens of millions left jobless.
"Hopefully, we're going to come in below that 100,000 lives lost, which is a horrible number nevertheless," said Trump, after suggesting earlier in the week the country could expect 60,000 or 70,000 fatalities.
Texas became the largest US state yet to ease curbs, while anti-lockdown demonstrations were held in several states -- including California, where officials had re-closed beaches beginning Friday to avoid a repeat of last weekend when crowds flocked to the shoreline. There were protests in 11 cities in California -- where more than 50,000 coronavirus cases have been reported -- with people chanting against the lockdown. In Huntington Beach, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) south of Los Angeles, several thousand people rallied to denounce Governor Gavin Newsom's beach shutdown order. "It was the straw that broke the camel's back," protester Monica Beilhard fumed. "It was uncalled for, unnecessary and people out here are making that known," she said. "And we're also very much saying enough is enough, we have the right to work... and it's time for the governor to allow the healthy to be able to get back to business."
'Slow, phased' reopening
Like the United States, governments around the world are struggling to balance the immense political and economic pressure to ease lockdowns with the need for public health measures against the spread of the virus, which has killed more than 236,000 people. Several European countries, including Austria, have begun to ease restrictions with authorities in some of the hardest-hit parts like Spain reporting signs that the pandemic there was slowing. Britain announced that it had hit its target of conducting 100,000 coronavirus tests a day, a step toward eventually lifting lockdown rules in the UK -- which this week overtook Spain to record the world's third-highest death toll. Ireland, however, extended its lockdown by two weeks to May 18, with Prime Minister Leo Varadkar saying the nation will reopen "in a slow, phased, staged way" after that. Meanwhile in South Asia, India announced that the lockdown on its 1.3 billion people -- the world's biggest -- would continue for two more weeks from May 4. The virus restrictions also put a damper on May Day celebrations worldwide on Friday, with many labor unions delaying their rallies and some holding online events, while a determined few hit the streets in face masks in defiance of lockdown orders.In Cuba's capital Havana, where around a million workers and their families take part in the annual May Day march, the image of Che Guevara gazed down on an eerily silent Revolution Square.
Sharp rhetoric
May Day carried extra significance this year because of the staggering number of people put out of work by the pandemic, with the global economy in a tailspin and facing its worst downturn since the Great Depression. Stock markets tumbled again on Friday after President Trump's unproven allegation that the virus may have come from a lab in Wuhan -- the central Chinese city where the disease first emerged late last year. Beijing has rejected the accusation, and scientists believe the virus jumped from animals to humans. The White House has accused Chinese authorities of mishandling the outbreak, "slow-walking" coronavirus data and putting US lives at risk. The disease overwhelmed healthcare infrastructure when it hit the United States, putting immense pressure on doctors, nurses and emergency responders. Some US medics relied on past experience in other countries to fight the virus. David Callaway, a doctor and academic who has worked in the past on diseases in conflict-hit nations such as South Sudan and Iraq, said he found overseas epidemics easier to handle in some ways. "Family and loved ones, you can put them in a box and you use them as a source of motivation and inspiration when things get rough, but you know they are safe," he told AFP. "A pandemic at home, you know that your family and your loved ones are still at risk, their lives hang on the line."

U.S. Virus Death Toll Climbs by 1,883 in 24 Hours

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
The coronavirus death toll in the United States climbed by 1,883 in the past 24 hours, a tally by Johns Hopkins University showed Friday, bringing the total number of fatalities to nearly 65,000. The Baltimore-based university had recorded more than 1.1 million cases in the country as of 8:30 pm Friday (0030 GMT Saturday), with 64,789 deaths, a rise of three percent from a day earlier. The US has by far the highest death toll of any country in the global pandemic.

Iraqi Activists Seek to Draw One Million Protesters
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
Iraqi anti-government protesters are gearing up for a demonstration next week to press ahead with their demands despite the coronavirus outbreak.
Iraqi activists told Asharq Al-Awsat that the pandemic has lately had a negative impact on their street protests despite their many successes, including the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and the parliament’s vote on an electoral law. Protest groups in Baghdad, Babil and Nassiriyah are now calling for rallies to draw one million demonstrators next Tuesday. But the date is not final yet, said Iraqi activist Mohammed Salman. “In the past few days, more activists began trickling to protest camps, in a sign that the intifada is ongoing,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi is the byproduct of the current political system, he said when asked about the protest movement’s stance from him. Kadhimi was nominated last month, the third person tapped to lead the country in just 10 weeks as it struggles to replace Abdul Mahdi’s government. In March, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said that there can’t be stability in Iraq without meeting the demands of peaceful protesters, whose blood has been shed to change the course of events. “They should be included in decision-making,” he said on Twitter, adding “suppression and killing will make things worse and would veer the political process from its track.”Protesters in Babil have warned the local authorities and the police against removing their tents and concrete blocks in the governorate’s center. “The response will be harsh if security forces tried to approach protest squares and remove the tents” under the excuse of the coronavirus, they said.

ISIS militants kill 10 in coordinated attack: Iraq officials
AP, Baghdad/Saturday 02 May 2020
ISIS militants killed at least 10 Iraqi militiamen in a coordinated assault overnight near the central city of Samarra, security officials said on Saturday. The attack added to concerns the extremist group that once controlled large areas of the country is staging a comeback. The military and the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of mostly Shia militias allied with the government, confirmed the attack in separate statements. It was the deadliest of a series of attacks in recent weeks that come as authorities are grappling with a worsening economic crisis and trying to contain a coronavirus outbreak.
Iraq declared victory over ISIS in December 2017 after a costly three-year campaign. At its height, the group controlled around a third of Iraq and neighboring Syria, which it governed in accordance with a harsh and violent interpretation of Islamic law. In recent months, remnants of ISIS have exploited security gaps resulting from a territorial dispute between Iraq's central government and the autonomous Kurdish region in the north, as well as the withdrawal of US forces in a planned drawdown. Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Kadhimi, who is expected to present his proposed Cabinet to parliament next week for a vote, expressed his condolences to the families of the killed in a statement on Twitter.“Their blood will not go in vain,” the statement said. “Our security forces will continue to pursue terrorists until we clear our land of its abomination.”Last week a suicide bomber targeted an intelligence office in the northern city of Kirkuk, wounding at least three security forces in the first such attack in months. The PMF said six of its fighters were killed by direct fire late Friday in the village of Mekeeshfa, south of Tikrit. Another three fighters were killed by a roadside bomb as reinforcements were called in. A 10th militiaman was shot dead in the nearby village of Tal al-Dahab. The coordinated attack occurred around 60 miles (95 kilometers) north of the capital, Baghdad.

Israel Faces Western Pressure against Plan to Annex West Bank Lands
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 2 May, 2020
Political sources in Tel Aviv revealed that Israel has been facing pressures to hinder its quest to annex Jordan Valley, the north of the Dead Sea, and its settlements in the West Bank. Not only Europe is exerting these pressures but also Washington as US President Donald Trump demands that Israel recognizes the Palestinians’ right to establish a state before taking the annexation decision. The sources revealed that the US administration informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his advisors that the White House will grant the green light to Israeli annexation in the West Bank if it agrees to the establishment of a Palestinian state. US officials in Tel Aviv said on Friday that the step would be “in the context of the Government of Israel agreeing to negotiate with the Palestinians along the lines set forth in President Trump’s Vision.” “The annexation would be in the context of an offer to the Palestinians to achieve statehood based upon specific terms, conditions, territorial dimensions, and generous economic support," they added.White House senior adviser and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner spoke last week with Benny Gantz of the Blue and White Party to guarantee he approves Washington’s standpoint.
During a virtual meeting for European diplomats and ambassadors as well as the ministry’s deputy director for Europe Anna Azari, they expressed concern over the annexation of the West Bank. They said that “The annexation of any part of the West Bank would be a violation of international law.”
“Such unilateral steps will harm efforts to renew the peace process and will have grave consequences for regional stability as well as Israel’s standing in the international arena,” they added. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat welcomed the European Union’s letter warning Israel against the prospective move to annex parts of the West Bank. Erekat said that the Palestinian leadership was maintaining diplomatic international contacts to prevent Israel from implementing its annexation plan.

Putin to Assad: Syria’s prime economic assets are Russia’s due
DEBKAfile/May 02/2020
Moscow has visibly cooled to the Syrian president Bashar Assad after Russian military intervention in 2015 saved his regime from the Syrian revolt. At issue is more than the Syrian ruler’s stiff-necked refusal to give an inch to the opposition for charting his country’s post-war future under the Russian aegis – or even a lack of gratitude for his savior. DEBKAfile’s Mid-East sources report that, for President Vladimir Putin, the time has come to cash in on that intervention. Since the Syrian dictator is proving to be immovable, Putin is burrowing under and around him to claim the plum economic and strategic assets which he believes he has earned with just 25 Russian warplanes based in Latakia that reversed the tide of war in favor of the army fighting ineffectively for the Assad regime.
Putin is preparing the way with military inroads on Assad’s forces. In the south, Russia is enlisting the rebel militias once sponsored by Israel and barring their road to enlisting with the government army. The powerful Jebel Druze tribes, in particular, were dissuaded from throwing in their lot with government forces and told to stay “neutral.” Russian “agents” are also being put in place in Assad’s military elite and intelligence.
The Syrian ruler is meanwhile being strongly “advised” not to hand out valuable concessions to his Allawite kinsmen, cronies or the Iranians – or intercede against the claims of Russian companies and oligarchs for prize concessions. The Iranians are “no longer partners,” Moscow stresses.
For starters, Putin plans to award the phosphates concession to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who owns the Russian mercenary group called Wagner which operates in Syria and Libya; and Syria’s petrochemical industry and the Tartus port authority to Gennady Timchenko, formerly of Gazprom, whose many interests include a gas company called Novatek and a petrochemical company called Sibur Holding. Both are members of Putin’s close circle.

Top Syrian businessman Rami Makhlouf shows rifts in Regime’s inner circle

Lemma Shehadi, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 02 May 2020
An extraordinary media appearance from one of Syria’s most powerful businessmen close to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gives a rare glimpse into rifts in the regime’s inner circle. In a video broadcast live on Facebook, Rami Makhlouf, chairman of the state-owned telecoms company Syriatel, opposed recent government measures to seize his assets. Syriatel he said, had paid $23.4 million in taxes for 2019 and 50 percent of its profits went to the government. “For every lira we make, the state takes another lira” he said. Yet government auditors, he said, had now ordered him to pay an additional $244.3 million and $254 million, more than 20 times the amount. “I spend 10 million liras on my employees, they tell me to cut it to 5 million liras,” he said. “These are real expenses. They are not made up.”For years, Damascus’s decisions and spending have been controlled by the Assads and a small, elite circle of relatives and family friends. Though feuds and rivalries are often rumored, they are seldom made public. “To have it aired so openly is rare and incredible,” said journalist Sam Dagher, author of Assad or We Burn the Country.
“Makhlouf, you thief!”
Makhlouf is al-Assad’s first cousin and Syria’s richest man. When protests began in the city of Dar'aa in 2011, Makhlouf was evoked in slogans as a “thief”. US diplomatic cables have described the billionaire as a “poster boy for corruption.” “He was hugely important in helping the regime evade sanctions. Syriatel was a cash cow for al-Assad and the Makhloufs,” adds Dagher. Yet in the 15-minute long video, Makhlouf portrays himself as the victim of an “unfair” crackdown and as a selfless benefactor to the country. “People are saying there is money I have to pay, regardless of my charitable work,” he said. “We are not playing games. You are our people, our family. Would anyone steal from themselves? These businesses are to serve you, not me. I am a small, small, part in this.”Makhlouf also described the humanitarian aid that he had provided to through his charities. “At the beginning of the war in 2011, when I found myself a burden to you, I withdrew from my businesses and dedicated myself to humanitarian work,” he said. One of his charities, Jamiat al-Bustan, funded Allawite militia and made payments to the families of fallen fighters. “In other words, he warns that if Bashar loses him, he also loses [support from] the Allawite community,” said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat and activist.
“There’s no money hidden beneath the tiles”
The crackdown on Syria’s richest man comes months after sanctions on the regime were tightened and the country faces bankruptcy. The Syrian pound is rapidly depreciating and queues for bread in major Syrian cities reveal the extent of food shortages. In 2019, al-Assad ordered Syrian businessmen, including Makhlouf, to pay millions of dollars into the Central Bank in an attempt to save the country’s devastated economy. Last week, the government seized the assets of another of Makhlouf’s companies, Abar Petroleum Service SAL. In the video, Makhlouf claims the new taxes will cause the company to “fall apart,” and requests a payment plan. “There’s no money hidden beneath the tiles,” he said, citing the salaries of Syriatel’s 6,500 employees as an expense. He agreed to pay the sum in full, but insisted that Assad personally oversees its redistribution to the country’s “poor”. “The money has to be distributed by you, with your trust and assurances,” he said, “I don’t trust anyone else.”
Throwing a bone at Moscow
The move on Makhlouf comes as Damascus faces increased pressure for concessions from Moscow. Assad has repeatedly rejected the Kremlin’s advice of implementing political reforms. “Makhlouf supports al-Assad’s position that any concession in the political process is the beginning of a relinquishment of power,” said Barabandi. He believes the video signals a disagreement between Makhlouf and Asma al-Assad, the president’s wife. “Asma wants an empty political process that is closer to the Russian position.”Moscow also doubts Assad’s ability to reign in the corruption that is collapsing the country's economy. Last month, a series of reports published by a Russian news agency criticized Assad’s “weak leadership”. “We are investing large sums of money in the Syrian economy, but we are not seeing results”, a Russian expert was quoted as saying. The reports were subsequently removed from the website. It may be an indication that Russia is calling the shots in the country. “Oligarchs around Putin are driving anger against Assad in Moscow. This group long viewed Makhlouf and his business associates as obstacles to their economic projects in Syria,” wrote the Middle East Institute’s Randa Slim on Twitter.
What next for Makhlouf?
Makhlouf once relied on his late aunt Aniseh, al-Assad’s mother, to mediate with the president. But his options today are less certain. “It’s too early to say that Makhlouf is finished, or that his relationship with al-Assad is over,” said Dagher. Others disagreed. “The Russians may force Makhlouf to leave for Russia, like they did with Rifaat al-Assad previously, to weaken this wing of the family,” said Barabandi. The video makes clear, however, that Makhlouf has exhausted all other methods to communicate with his cousin. “In the past, Bashar avoided requests from those closest to him by ignoring their calls. The same may have happened to Rami: he picked up the phone, but Bashar didn’t answer,” said Dagher, “And this time Aniseh is no longer alive to help.”

North Korea's Kim Reappears after Weeks of Speculation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
North Korea's Kim Jong Un has made his first public appearance in nearly three weeks, state media reported Saturday, following intense speculation that the leader of the nuclear-armed nation was seriously ill or possibly dead.
The North reported that Kim had attended the opening of a fertiliser factory and released pictures it said showed the leader cutting a ribbon at the ceremony on Friday in Sunchon, north of Pyongyang, although the appearance could not be verified. Rumours about Kim's health have been swirling since his conspicuous no-show at April 15 celebrations for the birthday of his grandfather, the North's founder -- the most important day in the country's political calendar.
His absence triggered a series of fevered rumours and unconfirmed reports over his condition, while the United States and South Korea insisted they had no information to believe any of the conjecture was true.
Seoul's unification ministry reacted to Saturday's report by saying "groundless" speculation about Kim had caused "unnecessary confusion", calling for more careful consideration in future. Kim's sudden death would have left Pyongyang facing an unplanned succession for the first time in its history and raised unanswered questions over who would succeed him and take over the North's nuclear arsenal.
China, the North's key diplomatic ally and main provider of trade and aid, is keen to maintain stability in its neighbour and avoid the possibility of an influx of refugees. North Korea is "at the epicentre of an extremely tense security crisis", involving "a nuclear standoff where tens of millions of lives are at stake," Henri Feron, Senior Fellow at the US Center for International Policy, told AFP.
"This raises legitimate concerns about the domestic and international instability that his death could cause." The pictures released by the Rodong Sinmun newspaper showed Kim in his trademark black suit, smiling broadly as he looked around the factory. He was flanked by senior officials -- including his sister and close adviser Kim Yo Jong -- and showed no outward signs of ill health. As with previous pictures released by the North during the global coronavirus pandemic, Kim was not wearing a mask, unlike the hundreds of workers cheering for him and releasing balloons.The Korean Central News Agency said that onlookers "broke into thunderous cheers of 'hurrah!'" when Kim appeared.
Analysts said Kim could not appear in public wearing a mask as it would make him appear vulnerable to the North Korean people. The North has insisted that it has not seen a single case of coronavirus, although experts say it is unlikely. Kim's repeated appearances without a mask had led some to speculate that he may have caught the virus.Reporting from inside the isolated North is notoriously difficult, especially on matters relating to its highly secretive leadership.
Rumours of ill health
The North Korean leader had not made a public appearance since presiding over a Workers' Party politburo meeting on April 11, and the following day state media reported that he had inspected fighter jets.
Daily NK, an online media outlet run mostly by North Korean defectors, had reported that Kim was undergoing treatment after a cardiovascular procedure last month. Citing an unidentified source inside the country, it said Kim -- who is in his mid-30s -- had needed urgent treatment due to heavy smoking, obesity and fatigue. CNN then reported that Washington was "monitoring intelligence" that Kim was in "grave danger" after undergoing surgery, quoting an anonymous US official.Officials in Seoul had consistently downplayed the reports and a presidential security advisor said that Kim was "alive and well" and staying in the eastern resort town of Wonsan. US President Donald Trump suggested earlier this week that Washington believed Kim to be alive and declined to immediately comment on Kim's apparent re-emergence. Trump and Kim have met three times, although talks on the North's nuclear capabilities have long been stalled with no sign of them resuming. Analysts say Kim is likely to make another public appearance in the coming days that will be reported by state media. But Pyongyang "probably won't explain Kim's recent absence given the secrecy around the leader's health and schedule," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. Previous absences from the public eye on Kim's part have also prompted speculation about his health. Kim's father and predecessor had been dead for two days before anyone outside the innermost circles of North Korean leadership was aware. In 2014, Kim Jong Un dropped out of sight for nearly six weeks before reappearing with a cane. Days later, the South's spy agency said he had undergone surgery to remove a cyst from his ankle.

Terrorist attack in Sinai leaves Egyptians in mourning
Arab News/May 02/2020
CAIRO: The terrorist attack in Sinai on Thursday, which killed or wounded 10 Egyptian soldiers, has been condemned by the government and the public, which viewed the victims as martyrs. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned the attack. It reaffirmed the Kingdom’s full solidarity with Egypt and its support for Egypt in its war against terrorism. News of the attack, in which an explosive device detonated under an armored vehicle in the city of Bir El-Abed in the North Sinai governorate, left many Egyptians in mourning for the lives lost. Their condolences were posted on the various social media platforms. The hashtags “Sinai” and “homeland’s martyrs” were trending on Twitter as soon as the news of the attack broke and remained so throughout the following day. Social media users mourned the deaths of the armed forces members.
Many commented on the irony that the attack was launched while TV viewers were watching the Ramadan series “The Choice,” which tells the story of a real Egyptian armed forces hero who was killed in a Sinai terrorist attack. “We live what we watch! So heartbreaking,” one Twitter user said.
“While the world is facing the coronavirus, Egypt faces the virus, terrorism and external extremism,” expressed another. Others put faces and names to those who lost their lives in the attack. Friends and acquaintances of the victims used their platforms to give people images from their lives. “Just two months ago I was congratulating you on your engagement,” an acquaintance of one of the soldiers said in a tweet that quickly drew the attention of hundreds on the platform.

Egypt Says Killed 2 Jihadists, Day after Deadly Blast Hits Army
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
The Egyptian army killed two suspected jihadists Friday in restive North Sinai, a day after a blast targeted an armoured vehicle, a military spokesman said.
Army spokesman Tamer al-Rifai said the suspects died in an exchange of fire in a farming area of the region in eastern Egypt, and that arms, ammunition and walkie-talkies were seized. Egypt's army said Thursday that 10 soldiers, including an officer, were killed or wounded in an explosion that day targeting an armoured vehicle near Bir al-Abed in North Sinai. It gave no further details Friday on the army's casualties. The Islamic State group (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, according to a statement posted by its propaganda unit, Amaq News Agency. Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi extended his condolences to the victims on Twitter. North Sinai has been at the centre of a long-running Islamist insurgency spearheaded by a local affiliate of the IS. Security forces have been battling to contain the insurgency, which intensified after the military's 2013 ouster of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi. In February 2018, Egypt's security forces launched a nationwide operation against militants, focused on North Sinai.
More than 800 suspected militants have been killed in the region along with almost 70 security personnel, according to the army. No independent figures are available as the region is largely closed off to the media.

Canada Bans Assault Weapons after Deadliest Shooting

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/2020
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday announced an immediate ban on military-grade assault weapons in response to the country's deadliest-ever mass shooting, a rampage that left 22 people dead last month. "These weapons were designed for one purpose, and one purpose only: to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time," Trudeau told a news briefing. He said his government has approved a decree banning the sale, purchase, use, transport and import of 1,500 models of military-grade assault weapons and their variants. "There is no use, and no place for such weapons in Canada," Trudeau said. The killing spree began on the night of April 18 in Nova Scotia and led to a 13-hour manhunt for the shooter, who was eventually shot dead by police.
Authorities have said the assailant -- identified as 51-year-old denturist Gabriel Wortman -- was wearing a police uniform, driving a mock police car, and had several guns with him including at least one assault-style weapon. "For many families, including indigenous people, firearms are part of traditions passed down through generations, and the vast majority of gun owners use them safely, responsibly, and in accordance with the law, whether it be for work, sports shooting, for collecting or for hunting," Trudeau said. "But you don't need an AR-15 to bring down a deer," he added.
Mass shootings are less common in Canada than in the United States "but the heartbreaking truth is, they're happening more often than they once did," the prime minister said. "Events like the recent tragedy in Nova Scotia, the attack in 2017 at the Centre Culturel Islamique de Quebec and the massacre that took place in 1989 at Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal should never have happened," he continued. On January 29, 2017, a man known for his far-right, nationalist sympathies opened fire on worshippers praying at the Quebec City mosque, killing six people and seriously injuring several others.
And on December 6, 1989, a 25-year-old man claiming to be an "anti-feminist" burst into classrooms at Montreal's Ecole Polytechnique armed with a gun and a knife and shot exclusively at women, killing 13 female students and a secretary.
Overwhelming support for ban
That tragedy, at the time unprecedented in Canada, led to the creation in 1995 of a mandatory gun registry. But it was abolished for hunting guns in 2012 by then-premier Stephen Harper's Conservative government. Trudeau made banning assault weapons part of his campaign for elections that brought him to power in 2015. And he repeated the pledge while campaigning for the October 2019 elections in which he won another term.Nearly four of five Canadians back such a ban, according to an Angus Reid poll released Friday. But division on the issue between urban and rural elected officials within Trudeau's Liberal  party had led him to stall until now. Conservative opposition leader Andrew Scheer criticized the announcement.  "Taking firearms away from law-abiding citizens does nothing to stop dangerous criminals who obtain their guns illegally," he said, pointing out that the Nova Scotia gunman did not have a firearms license, meaning all of his guns were illegal.
"Nothing the Trudeau Liberals announced today addresses this problem," he said. Trudeau said there will be a two-year amnesty for people who currently own assault-style weapons to protect them from liability, and Parliament will eventually pass legislation to compensate them for turning in their guns -- though survivors of previous shootings have expressed concern that the buy-back program may not be mandatory. Ottawa says there are currently more than 100,000 guns in circulation in Canada which would fall under the new prohibitions. Among the weapons now banned are the Ruger Mini-14, used in the Polytechnique tragedy; the VZ 58 rifle, used in Quebec; and the M16, AR-10 and AR-15 rifles. The latter three models have been used over the past decade to carry out the devastating Sandy Hook, Las Vegas and Orlando mass shootings in the United States and the Christchurch massacre in New Zealand.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 02-03/2020
US Ambassador James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative for the Syrian war and the fight against ISIS to Asharq Al-Awsat: Russia Is Aware What Kind of Ally It Has in Syria
London- Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 02/2020
US Ambassador James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative for the Syrian war and the fight against ISIS, said the US supports "in every possible way", diplomatically and logistically, Israeli raids on Iranian sites in Syria.
In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Jeffrey said that "Iran has very established footholds in the Syrian state and within Syrian society, "noting that many Arab countries" will never be in harmony with a man like (President Bashar) Assad. They can claim that they can distance him from the Iranian orbit, but I see that this is absolutely not possible."
The American envoy emphasized that his country will continue to impose sanctions on Damascus, and "we support the entry into force of sanctions on the Syrian regime until its acceptance of a political solution," explaining: "Economic sanctions make the situation worse for the circle of people very close to the head of the regime, and this is what we are always trying to reach."
And we want to make it clear to these figures that there is no clear future for them if they continue to support Assad. They should rather press for political transition. ” He pointed out that the recent Russian media campaign against Damascus is evidence that Moscow is also aware of “what kind of ally” they have in Syria today. He said that Idlib is "the citadel of opposition” and will not return to Damascus soon.
Here is the text of the exclusive interview that Asharq Al-Awsat did by Phone Thursday:
· Let’s start with Covid-19. Could you give me your assessment? Also, yesterday in the Security Council the Russians once again rejected reopening Yarobiyeh, the crossing between Iraq and Syria. What is your assessment on that as well?
First of all, we’re following the situation of the coronavirus throughout Syria. We have to look at it in three different areas; the northeast where we have the best eyes on, the northwest where we rely on Turkish information, and of course the regime areas which are totally under-reported and under-represented. We have only notional information from the regime areas. We think that there’s a considerable amount of cases there, but we can’t measure it. We do not see at the moment a significant outbreak of the virus in the northwest, but of course with so many people jammed together and with such bad medical support, particularly as the Russians and Syrians have bombed most of the hospitals and other medical facilities there, that would be of great concern.
In the northeast, there have been one or two reports of infections but we are yet to see a significant outbreak.
To some degree the few reported cases are due to the limit on travel in and out of the country, other than for the Iranians who we think spread it initially in regime areas. So the effects of it have been limited but that can change at any time. The UN is worried about this, the WHO is worried about this, and we are as well.
The Russians and the regime by blocking the transfer of medical supplies to those areas where Assad does not hold sway of course have made the situation worse. It’s Assad’s fault. It’s his fault in his own areas for having devastated his own country and not caring about its people. He is even more at fault in those areas not under his control that he denies assistance to, even though that is his responsibility as the sovereign entity in Syria.
*Do you think being in this pandemic paves the way for renewal or updating of the UN Security Council resolution regarding the humanitarian border crossing? Because I think we’re supposed to be in June/July, and directions in December?
In July, UNSC 2504 has to be renewed. It is our hope that Russia will renew at a minimum the two crossings in the northwest. We are very, very insistent on that, and we would also like to see a new crossing to service the northeast. As you know the crossing there, the Rabia crossing, was blocked from being included in the new resolution by the Russians and Chinese so that is where we are.
· As you may know in the last few weeks, even months, since the beginning of the pandemic the Russians and the regime twisted the whole argument. They’re saying now that they’re blaming the US and the European sanctions. What is your reaction to that?
The collapse of the Lebanon monetary and financial system has nothing to do with our sanctions, and that is perhaps the biggest impact on Assad. Frankly his own bad management is the second reason he is in such dire economic shape, and then thirdly, it’s the fact that this country is still at war and important areas, including agriculture and energy-producing areas, are not under his control, nor should they be until he accepts a compromise political settlement. That is why he is faced with great economic difficulties that are impacting all of the people. Our sanctions do not include sanctions on humanitarian or medical goods, those items can flow freely. And the sanctions are carefully selected and packaged to target regime figures and not the average person.
· In May/June I think the Europeans, the EU are supposed to renew their sanctions, so what is your view on that?
We are very much in favor of these sanctions staying in place until the Regime accepts a political solution. We see the glimmer of hope in the longer-term ceasefire in Idlib and the regime’s acquiescence in a common agenda for the constitutional committee in Geneva. These things would not have happened without the tough position of the international community, be it the Turks in Idlib or all of our efforts maintaining our sanctions. So we are really happy that the EU is maintaining them.
· What would you tell some Syrians who buy the narrative of the regime and blame the US for their suffering?
I cannot help anyone if after almost a decade of Assad’s terror, they still believe Assad over the international community.
· In this regard, we saw some new developments by some Arab countries who reconnected with Damascus and they took the pandemic as a pretext. Did you speak with those Arab countries? And if you did, what did you tell them?
That’s kind of vague without identifying which Arab countries. The Arab countries I am thinking of, and I do not want to disclose them publicly but we know who they are, we are talking to them constantly.
We think two things. First of all they will have no impact. They will not win any prizes from Assad. We saw when one of them, and this one I can name because it has been discussed in the media, the UAE extended diplomatic recognition and they got nothing from Assad. I think they barely got a thank you. We know as well that they’re not going to change his policies nor are they going to undercut our policy.
We think that some people in the region have the mistaken idea, even though I am in media all the time, and Secretary Pompeo and President Trump speak out frequently on Syria, that maybe there is another American policy that allows us to be friends with Assad. There is no such American policy. There will never be such an American policy. There wasn’t even such a policy under the Obama administration.
· In this regard what do you expect from the Arab Summit that is due in June but might be delayed a little bit. The Algerians are now working hard to bring the Syrians back to the Arab League.
Our question to the Arab League is: What has changed from when you took the decision (to freeze Syria membership in 2012)? Have fewer people died now had died then? We think the number now is almost 500,000 Arab citizens of Syria. That is not a very encouraging thing to invite them back. Has the Regime complied with any of the UN calls for reconciliation? No.
What percent of the population has been ridden from their homes or fled their homes due to the regime in 2012 when the Arab League took the decision? Perhaps 5-10 percent of the population. What percentage of that population today? 50 percent.
The Arab League has to ask itself: Does it just have as an interlocutor states or does it also have as an interlocutor people of those states? Because the people of this state, Syria, have shown repeatedly their courage and their commitment by half the population fleeing Assad’s rule.
· Some Arab countries believe that by bringing the regime back to the League, maybe they would distance it away from Iran. What do you think?
It’s a crazy idea. First of all, Iran is deeply embedded in the Syrian state and society. It’s not as bad as Hezbullah in Lebanon or with the Militias in Iraq, and I know both situations, particularly Iraq, very well. But it is very concerning, not just to us, we know it is also concerning to the regime and the Russians. You have militias that are created and paid for by the Iranian government and reports to the Iranian government.
But the other thing is, and people really need to think about this, Syria is a state where Assad’s brutality to his own people is unique in the world, even faced with Venezuela or North Korea. Assad only knows one tool, butchering his population, particularly the Sunni Arab population.
Now, does anybody think he’s going to change his ways? It is one thing to think he is going to change his alliance with Iran, I don’t think he can but at least theoretically it is possible. But does anyone think he is going to change the way he rules and the population is going to accept this mass murderer, this uber torturer as leader? No. He has to run an absolutely horrific brutal totalitarian state.
What country is willing to accept a partnership with a brute like that? We only know of two, Russia and Iran. We do not think the decent countries of the Gulf and the Arab World would be in the same bed with someone like him. They can claim they can wean him away from Iran, I doubt that very much. Will these countries provide the ground forces, the Hizbullah troops, and the Shia from Afghanistan and other countries to keep the Sunni Arab and many other ethnic groups in the opposition from attacking Assad? No, they won't go that far and I don’t think they will sign up to support a government as terrible as Assad’s. They won’t bear the responsibility. That is something Iran and Russia will have to do.
· Recently, there were a lot of Israeli airstrikes around Damascus, Damascus - Beirut highway, and in Palmyra. What is your view on this?
The US supports Israel’s efforts to secure its self-defense. Israel is facing an existential threat from Iran, as they have said a thousand times that their mission is to destroy Israel. The Iranians are in Syria in large numbers, passing on long-range weapon systems to Hezbullah that threaten Israel. We know probably two elements associated with the Iranians, also in Syria, and Israel has the right to take whatever action it needs, being careful about Syrian casualties which the Israelis are, for the goal of saving Israel. Therefore, we are supportive of them in any way we can.
· What kind of support? Political or Logistical? Through the Tanf military base?
We give the support that is needed for effective Israeli actions to protect itself, and in protecting itself it is protecting all neighbors of Assad: Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon.
· The Israeli Minister of Defense said recently that this is to finish, not limit, the Iranian influence on Syria. Do you think that is possible?
Our policy is that all Iranian-commanded forces have to leave Syria, along with frankly all other military forces that entered after 2011. This includes the United States, if all of the reports are correct about the Israeli Air Force that would include the Israelis, and it would include the Turks.
· And the Russians?
The Russians entered before 2011, therefore they are exempt. Everyone else came after the war had begun. If there is a political solution to the war, and neighbors such as Israel and Turkey no longer feel threatened by the situation in Syria, we think they would be willing to let the country return to normal. As far as we are concerned, returning to normal is our goal and that means, among others, all Iranian-commanded forces have to leave.
· You said earlier that the sanctions are working, and that there are indications proving that. What are they?
Given the incompetence of the Assad administration, who is good at sucking the blood, literally and figuratively, in terms of money, goods, and property from its own people and in running a corrupt financial and economic system, but are not good at holding the country together and attracting foreign investments, they have done much of the damage themselves. Who would invest in a country Assad runs? They have also destroyed much of their own infrastructure, driven away a large percentage of the country’s doctors, and on and on.
It’s hard to say if you look at the unlimited fall of the Syrian pound (now 1300 to the US dollar) and the claims by people who are trying to support the regime that they have lost $244 billion, four times the GDP of the country, in the last few years because of the war, it is very hard to say what is due to the Regime’s own actions and what part of it is due to the sanctions. I would say that in general, in terms of the economy, it is mainly what the Regime has done to itself. Sanctions make life hard for those people in the inner circle, and that is what we are trying to get at. To make it clear to them that they don’t have an economic future by supporting Assad. They need to push for a political transition in Syria.
· You say the sanctions will push the regime to change its behavior?
We think it is a combination of everything. The 50 percent of the population that’s fled, stripping the country of most of its demographic resources, or much of it. The major swaths of territory that are not under Assad’s hand and unlikely to come into his hands because significant outside powers, including the US, who are on the ground. The pummeling (attacks) that the Iranians and the Syrians are getting from the air (Israeli Strikes) with ever more aggressive and effective airstrikes. The lack of reconstruction assistance. The ostracism of the Regime by the Arab League and by the Europeans.
We think that at the end of the day this formula will push the regime to eventually seek a negotiated settlement rather than claim a military victory and no compromise, which is what they have been doing up until now.
· You just said that keeping regime out of Idlib is a strategic thing. Right?
Yes. That is correct
· And you said that you want Turkey to fight extremists in Idlib?
Yes, we do. And we see signs that they are, more effectively.
How can you combine those two goals, keep Idlib out of the regime’s control and fight terrorism? And what do you think of the Turkish Russian deal over Idlib?
I think the deal will maintain as long as Turkey continues pressure on HTS. We do not see HTS as a serious threat to Russian forces, as they claim. It is a threat to all of us because it is a terrorist organization, and it is a threat to the more moderate and armed opposition in Idlib, which is of concern to us.
We see no reason, no excuse, no justification for this offensive (regime in Idlib) to start up again. By the same token, we are happy that the Turks are dealing independently with HTS. They committed to that in September 2018 and in the most recent agreement and that is a good thing.
· And you think that deal is holding?
I think that it will hold for the next few months, at least.
· Let move to North East of Syria which is where the American forces are. Recently we have noticed the Russians sending more military enforcement and they took a Qamshli military base and are getting closer and closer to the Americans. What is your assessment of the situation?
The Russians have some lightly armed military police units, they travel around in three, four, five vehicles, and sometimes they’re here, sometimes they’re there, but there is no Russian significant military force on the ground. There is no Russian occupation. Frankly, the Syrian government, other than in a few bases in Qamishli and the city of Deir El Zoor, has no real presence either. There are a few outposts and a few patrols. The people with the large, tens of thousands forces on the ground is the SDF, our partner against ISIS.
· In December, President Trump spoke of withdrawing from the North East of Syria and the Americans are there now. How long will they remain?
We will remain there until we have completed our military mission of the enduring the defeat of ISIS.
· Can we say it is an open-ended presence there?
I would never say the word open-ended. I would say only what I have just said.
· What would you tell your allies, the SDF, in advance before pulling out?
Pulling out of northeast Syria is not on the agenda, as we have not seen yet the enduring defeat of ISIS.
· Back to the current relationship between Washington and Moscow. There were some talks between some American officials and Russian officials in Washington, Moscow, and Vienna. Where are we in that regard? Is the step-by-step approach still valid?
As you know, we have various levels of talks with the Russians. We maintain generally our radio silence on these talks. One exception was when Mike Pompeo traveled to Sochi to meet with FM Lavrov and President Putin to talk about Syria and to talk about our efforts to get a compromised solution. We laid the whole thing out to both Putin and Lavrov and we did a joint press conference with Lavrov. It’s all on the record.
What do you make of the Russian media criticism of Assad?
We think that Russia knows very well what’s going on in the country. We think Russia knows what sort of ally they have in the Syrian President. And we think those articles speak for themselves.
· Do you think the Russians are upset with Damascus?
I think the articles speak for themselves. You are a journalist and when you write your articles, you want us to read what you write. Right? Then, believe what is printed in the papers.
· Did the Russians convey the same thing with you?
We do not share the details of diplomatic exchanges with our valued Russian interlocutors.
· We Know the OPCW report blamed Damascus for Ltamneh (Hamah) chemical attack in 2017 and we know that Damascus dined that. What is the next step?
The OPCW is reporting its findings to the UN Security Council, which were dramatic, and talk not just about Regime forces using chemical weapons but that the decisions were taken at the highest levels of the government to do so.
Meanwhile, the Security Council is also dealing with the UN Board of inquiry that found the regime, and to some degree the Russians, culpable for exploiting the UN’s passing of coordinates of humanitarian installations that should be on a no strike list, but in fact were deliberately struck.
We see the UN, from OCHA Chief Mark Lowcock to Secretary-General Guterres himself, speaking out in very clear and tough terms of the humanitarian risks of closing these border crossings from Iraq and eventually Turkey and the failure of the regime to allow crossline transfers of humanitarian goods to those areas. We see German courts pursuing Assad’s torturers who had gone after Syrian citizens. These citizens and their torturers now find themselves in Germany with cases open against them.
This is just the tip of the iceberg of all of the accountability efforts that we, the UN, the international community, and the media are doing to expose, that’s the word I would use, expose the absolute moral bankruptcy of that regime and those who are associated with it.
· What about the UN peace process? We hear UN special Envoy Mr. Gier Pederson saying that he made a deal between regime and opposition about agenda of the constitutional committee?
Pederson has this account and we support him 150 percent, including his call for a nationwide ceasefire. We support his efforts to build on the agreement on the agenda. That is a small, but important step forward.
· Do you think that it is realistic to talk about presidential elections under UN auspices in 2021?
We think the elections are the right way to go. If Assad holds his elections, this year or next year, they will have none, zero international credibility. They will be dismissed by the international community. The international community will redouble its efforts to pursue real elections monitored by the UN. That is the way forward. That is what the US supports.
The policy that we are pursuing is not going to change. We look very much forward to working with the media and the voices and people of the entire Middle East in speaking as one to call for a political solution and an end to the fighting.
· It this realistic?
Some people think it is not realistic. I don’t know but two years ago people thought that it was unrealistic to think that the last citadel of the armed opposition in Idlib would hold out for very long. Two years later there it is. Some people thought it was impossible for the Syrian Opposition and representatives of the Syrian government could meet together in Geneva, they have done so. Trust us that we are not only pursuing this policy, we think it has had some limited success and we think it has the potential to have a great deal more success.

On the State and Human Rights ... Once a Difference Is Made!
Zuhair Al-Harthi/ Asharq Al-Awsat/May 02/2020
Sometimes, we gloss over the news, decisions and events, hearing or reading about them without taking a moment to reflect on their significance. However, once we do, we may find that they resonate and are of great consequence. An example of such decisions, described as bold and demonstrating qualitative advances, was that recently announced in Saudi Arabia as a step in its path to reform, canceling tazir capital punishment for minors [tazir punishments are those that are set by Islamic Law and are at the discretion of the state], and replacing it with a prison sentence of no longer than 10 years in a social observation home [juvenile detention facility]. Floggings for tazir crimes have also been canceled and are to be replaced with prison time, a fine, both or an alternative punishment, such as community service.
The desire for justice, since the era of primitive societies to the present day, has always dominated social consciousness; people have always strived to have clean consciences and to be true to their convictions. In order to arrive at justice, there must be a will to do so, and this is what drives the sublimity of human civilization. Historic decrees that have been taken have shortened both time and distance. They were preceded by major decrees and will be followed by others that are a culmination of dozens of years of effort and money invested in enhancing Saudi Arabia's reputation and its high status in international forums.
They were issued, not out of obedience to anyone, but as another step in the journey toward a state of law and institutions and toward broader horizons. The decree, naturally, goes beyond its content considering the manner in which its legal and penal dimensions will shape our society and the positive cultural and social effects it will have.
These human rights decrees confirm the Saudi leadership’s determination to achieve the aspirations of citizens and residents, and the fact that the state is always a step ahead of society in its reform efforts, and that balanced modernization, so long as it makes peoples’ lives more dignified and protects their rights, is its approach.
We have surpassed the stage where we were too sensitive to discussions of our concerns and issues; thus, it was logical that our experiences would accumulate, and this is what this remarkable step on the noble path to social and cultural maturity demonstrates.
Saudi Arabia has ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child, which defines children as those younger than 18 years of age, abolished the flogging as a tazir punishment, made sentences consistent and canceled unjustified exaggerated punishments. The decree is resonating all over the world, with the international media celebrating and welcoming it, not to flatter us, but out of a genuine appreciation for the real transformations taking place in our country.
Of course, there is no country in the world in which no human rights violations are committed (even if they were the result of an individual’s judge's ruling, or even in simple matters), including developed countries that have made qualitative leaps in terms of the development of their economies and constitutional institutions, and where all kinds of freedoms are granted. However, the standards and the degree to which the human rights principles are adhered to and applied vary from one country to another. Mature states, even among those that are “developing”, are taking the initiative to rectify their shortcomings, looking for ways to make their people happy and provide them with dignified lives.
The point is not to praise and tribute to what is unfolding in the Kingdom, however much it deserves them; rather, it is to objectively describe it and communicate an unedited image of it. Thus, it is moving on a path with a clear vision and plan, maintaining its calm and ignoring perverse noises despite all of the clamor and the danger of what is happening and the defamation. It is also determined to make its local law comply with international standards without undermining divine texts or the state’s fundamental principles. For these reasons, it is normal that all kinds of local laws and systems are revised and scrutinized.
Saudi Arabia is making real reforms and not just cosmetic improvements as some human rights organizations are saying, organizations that are never satisfied with anything. It was expected that these organizations (if they had credibility and principle) would welcome this step in Saudi Arabia, but the suspicions and sarcasm that have we seen and their flimsy justifications put a question mark on the truth behind these organizations’ affiliations and their permanently negative and objective position towards Saudi Arabia.
These decrees are related to an internal decision and not foreign pressure, considering that they have been there but have been ignored for years as there was always official and popular refusal of impositions and pressures, in addition to other factors that are not within the scope of our discussion here. The truth is that there is diligent work and extensive revisions done by the government. There are many expert and diverse committees that restlessly meet to make recommendations, suggestions, visions and studies, led by a youth that possesses a political will and is capable of making difficult decisions. These committees have seen that the general atmosphere and the current historical moment and social consciousness is capable of comprehending and understanding such human rights steps that are to the benefit of humanity.
The Human Rights Bill has been exploited by certain sides, bodies and countries ever since the Kingdom was established. It is also noteworthy that the Crown Prince’s modernizing project has frustrated the slogans and talks that they have always regurgitated as they no longer have anything to say or promote and are therefore now in a dilemma.

Why Brexit needs good neighbors
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/May 02/2020
As the coronavirus ravages Europe — Italy, Spain and France have been particularly hard hit, and data from the UK suggest it may eventually be worse affected than any — it would be fair to say that attention has been diverted from the twists and turns of Brexit. While it remains the case that Britain’s departure from the EU by Dec. 31 is enshrined in UK law, priorities have changed on both sides of the English Channel, and negotiations have changed too. Governments have focused on the containment of the pandemic, and Brexit negotiations turned virtual rather than face to face — especially since British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier both contracted the virus, and Johnson in particular was seriously incapacitated.
Nevertheless, the deadline remains, and it has become clear over the past two weeks that positions have not changed. The EU insists on access to UK fishing waters and the jurisdiction of EU courts in settling disputes; Britain holds firm on the supremacy of its own judiciary, and wants a trade deal based on that with Canada and a fisheries agreement based on that with Norway. Each side accuses the other of putting an agreement in jeopardy by refusing to recognize their respective red lines. It is a classic case of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object.
Grandstanding is part of any negotiation, but these are unprecedented times. Both sides need to deal not just with the healthcare issues from the pandemic, but a looming recession on a scale not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s — and we all know how that ended.
Both the EU and the UK need to deal not just with the healthcare issues from the pandemic, but a looming recession on a scale not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s — and we all know how that ended.
Globalization has been on the retreat for some time, and the pandemic poses yet another threat. Nation states will look to become more self-sufficient, not just in food, PPE and pharmaceuticals, but in whole sectors. Where that is a challenge, regionalization will be the new normal, and near neighbors more important than ever. In 2018, 53 percent of the UK’s imports and 45 percent of its exports were with the EU. As Barnier reminded us recently, the EU has 450 million consumers, the UK only 66 million.
Barnier is worried about the UK running down the clock to a departure from the EU without any agreements on the crucial issues, and many within the UK are too. Without compromises on both sides, however, that will be the inevitable result, and the consequences for both the UK and the EU hardly bear contemplating. For each, the pandemic has required unprecedented and costly rescue programs at a time when tax bases are diminishing. Both will emerge from the pandemic a lot poorer.
If ever there were a time to put affairs with one’s neighbors on a good footing, it is now. All we can do is hope against hope that something will give, and that we shall see either a last-minute agreement between the two sides or a backtracking from artificial deadlines —enshrined in law or otherwise.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources.

EU flunks its rendezvous with history
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/May 02/2020
The tragic classical heroine Cassandra has always held a special place in my heart. The beautiful daughter of King Priam of Troy, she rebuffed the advances of Apollo. In revenge, he visited upon her a terrible destiny: Her powers of analytical prediction would always prove correct, but no one would listen to her.
So, at the pivotal moment of the Trojan War, when the Greek horse bearing its soldiers inside was wheeled through the massive Scaean Gate by the clueless Trojans, Cassandra protested, but was dismissed. That night, the Greeks sacked and pillaged that magical city.
When frustrated, I have often privately thought that Cassandra should be the patron saint of political risk analysis, as good advice not taken is an occupational hazard of the business. But now it seems to me that able French President Emmanuel Macron is the modern political equivalent of the mythical Cassandra, fated to see the world clearly, even as his admonitions are largely, and tragically, ignored.
For, despite his on-the-money analysis of the peril that awaits Europe if it continues to fail to get its act together regarding the coronavirus, not nearly enough is presently happening. The great suspicion must be that the EU as sold to the world — a politically unified great power on the global scene — is, a bit like the Wizard of Oz, so much less than initially meets the eye.
The latest EU “emergency” summit of a fortnight ago, the fourth crisis meeting in just seven weeks, was hailed by Macron himself as a make-or-break moment for the bloc. As I wrote in this column just two weeks ago, beyond the details, the summit would make plain if Europe was ready to have its “Hamilton moment” — to finally and definitively answer the question as to whether it is actually a coherent political union, able to quickly and effectively respond to the coronavirus, the political risk event of the generation. Macron rightly said that Europe had reached the critical moment of its “rendezvous with history.” And then, as has been the case so often in the past, nothing much happened.
For the French president, the key immediate question to answer was whether the EU was prepared to truly share the full burden of the coronavirus crisis across its member states. More specifically, he pinned responsibility for the EU’s ultimate fate on rich northern countries Germany and the Netherlands, urging them to allow (and largely finance) a €1.5 trillion ($1.6 trillion) program of fiscal grants to enable the bloc’s plague-ravaged southern nations to economically rebuild themselves from the ruins of months of putting their already-weak economies into the coma of lockdown. But this proposal, despite the full-throated support of the three most important Southern European powers, was met by little more than an embarrassed silence.
The policy reason for the southerners’ pushing of grants instead of loans is that, rather than loading more unsustainable debt on Spain and Italy, transfers would allow them to recover without visiting dreaded austerity upon the south. Failure to do so, Macron reckons, will merely fuel dangerous levels of anti-EU populism in the south, as Brussels will be seen to have failed the people of Italy and Spain at the moment of greatest crisis, when help was most needed.
Yet the results of the summit were beyond disappointing. The EU issued a much-too-late road map on how its member states ought to exit the lockdown, long after each individual country had already announced their own (largely uncoordinated) plans to do so, often made at the local level.
Secondly, while it was affirmed that common state aid rules will be suspended in the aftermath of the lockdown, only countries with strong fiscal balance sheets will be able to take advantage of this relaxation in order to help national business and their people. It is cold comfort for a debt-oppressed south. The same holds for using government balance sheets to aid Europe’s people in emerging from the crisis: Germany and the Netherlands will be able to do so; France, Italy and Spain, not so much.
It is clear that the EU is not presently capable of creating its own Hamiltonian moment, pulling tighter together politically in order to weather this crisis of crises, for the astute Macron forgot one crucial point. While failing to act would inflame southern populism, acting would animate northern populism.
The great suspicion must be that the EU as sold to the world — a politically unified great power on the global scene — is, a bit like the Wizard of Oz, so much less than initially meets the eye.
Northern populists would surely ask the painful and strident question as to why they should pay for the debt-strapped south after a decade of southern refusal to enact genuine structural reforms to address the problem. The northern populist refrain would go something like this: “The south didn’t economically fix the roof while the sun was shining, only to come to us in desperation when it’s raining.”
We are left with a situation where the southern political establishment does not think it can survive a populist challenge without a Hamiltonian moment, and the northern political establishment does not think it can survive such a challenge with one. Look for Europe, to the frustration of us all, to continue to be less than meets the eye.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Saudi Leverage Not Enough to Achieve Peace in Yemen

Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/May 02/2020
Riyadh’s negotiation efforts in Yemen’s north and south have faltered, raising questions about its ability to single-handedly shepherd the country toward peace.
Nearly six months after Saudi Arabia negotiated the Riyadh Agreement to integrate the Southern Transitional Council and Yemeni government under a single political and military command, the deal has been dealt a serious blow. On April 25, the STC boldly declared its “autonomous administration of the South”—evidence that the council and Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi’s government are as much at odds today as they were at the signing ceremony last November. The disappointing turn comes after Houthi forces in the north refused to join a Saudi ceasefire on April 9, instead continuing their push toward the government’s resource-rich stronghold in Marib province.
This double blow is a watershed in a months-long experiment that has put Saudi Arabia at the helm of negotiations in Yemen. Last fall, the kingdom began direct talks with the Houthis and took over responsibility for patching up disputes between the Hadi government and STC. The hope was that Riyadh would have enough leverage to corral all parties into UN-brokered peace talks. That has not been the case, suggesting the kingdom needs to leverage the strengths of other parties in order to end the war.
SAUDIS AT THE HELM
With the UN bogged down in the ill-fated 2018 Stockholm Agreement, the Saudis have largely been leading diplomatic efforts in Yemen since last summer. Two events in 2019 propelled them to the forefront. First, the UAE military drawdown shifted responsibility for keeping the peace among coalition partners onto Riyadh. By August, only weeks after this pullout became official, a major attack killed an STC commander. The STC harbored suspicions that a government-aligned faction was involved, igniting the council’s latent conflict with Hadi and forcing Riyadh to act as mediator. Second, the September attacks on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq, widely believed to come from Iran, spurred the kingdom to launch direct talks with the Houthis in order to protect its territory and exit the war.
The Houthi talks have been fraught. The two sides differ on diplomatic strategy: the Houthis prefer a holistic approach to negotiations, whereas the Saudis prefer a piecemeal, confidence-building approach. There is also little trust between them—the Houthis temporarily halted attacks into Saudi territory in September, and the coalition reduced its airstrikes in response, but the parties were unable to reach a full-fledged joint ceasefire inside Yemen. The Houthis eventually resumed attacks against the kingdom, and ground fighting ramped up in Yemen. Since January, they have wrested strategic territory from the government and continue to push into Marib. By the time Saudi Arabia announced its unilateral April 9 ceasefire, the rebel goalposts had changed—the Houthis refused to join the deal until the coalition lifts its blockade on Yemen. The ceasefire has been extended for another month, but the Houthis still have little incentive to join it.
Last year’s Riyadh Agreement has not fared much better. The power-sharing deal provided notable political wins to the Hadi government and the STC, but the document itself was full of inexact language, had unclear sequencing, and failed to define fundamental matters such as what “integrating forces” would mean in practice. Both sides have taken maximalist political positions since then, and their efforts to defeat each other militarily have been stymied by Saudi interventions. As a result, the agreement has yet to be implemented.
Adding to this mess, floods ravaged Aden and other areas last week, showing just how badly residents in the south are suffering from the lack of leadership. The Hadi government is based in faraway Riyadh, and its cabinet has seen its legitimacy continue to shrink as it waits to be replaced under the terms of the Riyadh Agreement. STC leaders are stuck in Abu Dhabi due to coronavirus travel restrictions. Each side has prevented the other’s officials from returning to Aden. Unsurprisingly, protestors at a recent public demonstration railed against absentee officials on both sides.
Whether to break the stalemate with Riyadh or signal leadership amid the flooding, the STC has now declared a state of emergency and “self-rule” in the south. The Hadi government quickly condemned the move—but so did the Saudi-led coalition, the Emirati government, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United States, the European Union, and the governors of three eastern Yemeni provinces (Hadramawt, Shabwa, and al-Mahra). The coalition and others also urged all parties to “work rapidly” toward implementing the Riyadh Agreement, though without explaining how they should overcome the hurdles.
NO LEVERAGE, NO PROGRESS
Last fall, many saw the Saudi entry into negotiations as a cause for hope. According to that narrative, every party—including the Houthis—desired a relationship with Riyadh, and the kingdom had ample largesse to offer them. Surely that meant the Saudis would have more success than the UN. Yet their inability to resolve Hadi-STC disputes or reach a ceasefire deal with the Houthis has exposed their lack of leverage.
For example, one common refrain is that the Saudis can strong-arm President Hadi when needed—indeed, they did just that when getting him to sign the Stockholm Agreement in December 2018. He ultimately balked at implementation, however. The pattern then repeated itself with the Riyadh Agreement. The conclusion seems clear: the Saudis can strong-arm a signature but not implementation, suggesting their leverage over the Hadi government will not advance peace any further on its own.
Conventional wisdom also insinuates that the UAE can strong-arm the STC. But once Abu Dhabi took a hands-off approach to Yemen last fall, the Saudis became the council’s foremost interlocutor. The Emiratis remain an STC ally, but they do not seem to be heavily involved in southern decisionmaking related to the Riyadh Agreement. If they have leverage, they are choosing not to use it.
Given all these issues, the balance of leverage in Saudi-Houthi talks has tilted squarely in the latter’s favor. Meanwhile, the Saudis have limited options to get out of a war that has cost them hundreds of millions per day and amplified their fears about Iranian influence in the Arabian Peninsula. A unilateral military withdrawal would likely guarantee an Iranian-backed Houthi force across their border for years to come, while a cut-and-run lifting of the economic blockade would allow Tehran to more readily resupply the rebels with advanced weapons.
A GROUP EFFORT
The past six months have shown that the Saudis are hard-pressed to end the war on their own. Even the largesse they have doled out to Yemen’s Central Bank, the Hadi government, and the humanitarian aid effort has not moved the needle on any of the negotiations.
Instead, Riyadh may need to take a more deliberate approach to negotiating the war’s end by relying on leverage acquired from the UN, the United States, Britain, the EU, the UAE, and Oman. Each of these parties has relationships or capabilities that can facilitate Saudi efforts. The UAE has a strong relationship with the STC. Oman is actively engaged under new sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said and has regular access to the Houthis in Muscat. The United States and Britain can bring expertise on the details of a postwar plan, such as disarmament. The EU can provide cooperation frameworks or perhaps mediate between the Saudis and Houthis, in part to quell the rebel complaint that the kingdom cannot be a participant in talks and a mediator at the same time. Gulf neighbors can bring reconstruction money and expertise. And the UN has a deep sense of each party’s needs and redlines.
In some cases, Riyadh may find that having its partners lean into their relationships with certain Yemeni factions would help; in other cases, less foreign interference or funding might be best. But the fact remains that these parties are already involved unilaterally, and Riyadh has already been reaching out to many of them individually, with diminishing returns. Therefore, any peace strategy would be better served if the deliberations shaping it were more of a collective effort, even as foreign actors strive to avoid the appearance of meddling in Yemen’s internal affairs.
The urgency of such cooperation has grown because events are moving faster than Riyadh’s decisionmaking. The focus should therefore shift to corralling international partners whose combined relationships can better incentivize Yemen’s factions to reach a peaceful resolution. The prerequisite for that end goal remains the same: initiating comprehensive peace talks where Yemenis themselves can decide their future and the region’s role in it.
*Elana DeLozier is a research fellow in The Washington Institute’s Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy.

Saudi prince's vision marred by oil price — and a death

Simon Henderson/The Hill/May 02/2020
It is supposed to be the future of Saudi Arabia — and it may be. But not in the way that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, aka MbS, intended if recent events — principally, the low oil price but also, last week, a death — are anything to go by.
The Neom project is a $500 billion dream city in the northwest of the kingdom, bordering on the Red Sea as well as Egypt and Jordan. It is supposed to represent the post-oil future of Saudi Arabia, as high-tech as one could imagine. Saudi scientists and computer whizzes would live in a robotic world, their every need — cleaning their homes, buying food — anticipated electronically and dealt with while they are at work.
Consultants drawing up the details were encouraged to let their imaginations run almost wild. They did: Wanting the local sand to glisten in the moonlight, they contacted NASA seeking any wisdom on how it could be done.
Unfortunately for MbS’s dreams, the area, although remote, rocky and sandy, is not empty. People live there. There are an estimated 20,000 locals, predominantly members of the al-Huwaitat tribe, who make a living from harvesting date palms and fishing.
In the U.S., “eminent domain” — the forced sale to the government of land needed for development — involves lawyers. In Saudi Arabia, the process can be rougher. One local resident, Abdul Rahim Ahmad al-Hwaiti, vowed online to stay in his home. He tweeted his shouts of defiance to police gathering outside. Tweets from others recorded heavy gunfire. Later, cellphone video showed major damage to the interior of his house. An official statement said he had been killed in an exchange of gunfire.
When his funeral took place, a heavy detachment of police brought his body to the cemetery where local tribes people had sullenly gathered. But the end of the story, or this part of it, was on Tuesday morning, when the official Saudi Press Agency reported that the “people of al-Huwaitat tribe in Tabuk region have expressed loyalty” to King Salman and MbS. “The people of the tribe expressed support for the Neom project launched by His Royal Highness the Crown Prince in the Tabuk region as well as projects in Amaala.” (Amaala is the name of the Red Sea development to encourage foreign visitors to the stunningly beautiful coral waters; British tourism entrepreneur Richard Branson was enthused by the project, until the murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.)
We shall have to see how much the al-Huwaitat tribe, which stretches also into Egypt and Jordan, continues to respond to Neom — which, for the moment, apparently consists of little more than a royal palace complex or two. But Neom appears to remain central to MbS’s Vision 2030 plan for the transformation of the kingdom. Indeed, MbS is reported to be staying in the region now, locked down with his advisers.
While oil prices remain weak — the widely traded Brent crude was around $23 early Wednesday — the math for by how much MbS’s plans will have to be pruned or delayed is being recalculated, both within the kingdom and outside.
It was reported on Monday that the Saudi sovereign wealth fund had invested $500 million in Live Nation Entertainment, the world’s largest concert promoter, which, to many observers, suggests an over-confidence in the post-viral world. Contrast that with the statement, also Monday, by an International Monetary Fund official who suggested that Middle East sovereign wealth funds should be used to boost local economies.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.

Arab Health Officials Discuss Fighting COVID-19

Jaafar Allawi, Saad Jaber, and Abdullah Algwizani/The Washington Institute/May 02/2020
Three senior officials from Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia share a behind-the-scenes look at each country’s efforts to contain the pandemic.
On April 29, Jaafar Allawi, Saad Jaber, and Abdullah Algwizani addressed a virtual Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Dr. Allawi, approved as Iraq’s health minister last October, was just re-nominated for his post in the prospective government of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Dr. Jaber, the health minister of Jordan, has also served as director of the Queen Alia Heart Institute and president of the Jordan Cardiac Society. Dr. Algwizani is executive director of the Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control, also known as Weqaya (Prevention). The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
JAAFAR ALLAWI
The arrival of COVID-19 means Iraq is dealing with several problems concurrently. The country is very dependent on oil, and prices have dropped significantly. It is also experiencing anti-government street protests at a time when a caretaker government is still in power.
As for the pandemic, Iraq has suffered 1,927 COVID-19 cases as of April 28, 1,319 of which have been cured. In other words, the ratio of people being cured is 68 percent. Although there may be some underreporting of infections due to testing limitations and concerns about social stigma, there is no underreporting of deaths, since the government can check these numbers against burials and death certificates. Some media outlets claim the number of Iraqi cases has reached into the tens of thousands, but this is untrue. World Health Organization authorities in Baghdad monitor the government’s reporting. The curve is now plateauing, though the significant number of Iraqis abroad who are looking to return home could raise issues.
Another challenge is Iraq’s physical and cultural proximity to Iran, a country that experienced a high number of cases early on, especially in Qom. Several factors have made closing the 1,000-mile border between them very difficult, including the high rate of Iraqi-Iranian intermarriage, Iraq’s large Shia population, and their high bilateral trade volume.
Even so, closing all of Iraq’s borders, shutting schools, and implementing a curfew have helped tremendously in reducing the number of domestic cases. The government ran a high-caliber media campaign early in the crisis, notifying the public about the importance of social distancing, prevention, washing hands, and wearing gloves and masks. Compliance with these restrictions has increased gradually, though there is still room for improvement. High-ranking Sunni and Shia clergy members have stood by the Ministry of Health to prevent large gatherings at mosques and pilgrimages. Some violations have been reported, but overall visits to Imam sites and mosques have been reduced to approximately 5-10 percent.
At the beginning of the pandemic, Iraq was only able to test individuals arriving in the country and those who were symptomatic. Today it can conduct general testing in high-concentration areas. The government has received international support from China, Kuwait, London University, and the WHO, while U.S. military forces have provided equipment. This assistance helped address initial public complaints about the lack of personal protective equipment. The government began providing masks to the people for free, thereby reducing the problem of price gouging.
On the financial front, the country’s Central Bank and private banks have helped significantly, bolstering hopes for the general economy. The government is now negotiating additional financial support from the United States. Moreover, large quantities of rice and vegetables are being produced, and the minister of agriculture has stated that Iraq is ready to export rice and wheat.
As for the fact that Iraq and Jordan are experiencing far fewer cases and deaths than the superior U.S. and European health systems, one possible explanation is that there are multiple types of the virus. A colleague at Imperial College has noted there may be three types (A, B, and C)—one of them attenuated, one with medium effects, and one with a high risk of fatality. Some Chinese scientists reported in a reputable journal that two different types exist, calling them L and S. One of these types is aggressive and affected 70 percent of people in China, and the other is less serious and causes minor symptoms. The disparity could also be based on weather, the number of people vaccinated for other respiratory illnesses, or the fact that strenuous lockdown procedures were implemented earlier in Iraq than in Europe and the United States. It is impossible to pinpoint one specific cause at the moment. In any event, Iraq is coping at present, but if cases increase dramatically, the results could be catastrophic.
SAAD JABER
The situation in Jordan is under control. Most of the recently reported cases are truck drivers coming from abroad, all of whom are tested as they enter the country. Trade has not stopped, though the borders are closed to regular travel. The government is beginning to open up the commercial sector, which has been locked down for the past forty days. Jordan also did a good job with the media campaign it launched in late January, which built trust with the people and facilitated compliance with lockdown measures. The next task is to quarantine students coming home from abroad; the plan is to double-test them, once at the airport and again after fourteen days of quarantine.
The difference in case volume between various countries is likely multifactorial, but the contagion’s virulence is unlikely to differ from place to place. When the government genetically sequenced the viruses with help from a center in San Diego, it found that most of the ones entering Jordan came from the United States, Belgium, Australia, Britain, and Italy. None came from China.
Notably, Jordan has a large refugee population spread over eight camps, the largest of which houses 80,000 people. The government has enforced the same standards there as in the rest of the country, including lockdowns, surveillance, and awareness campaigns. It has also restricted movement in and out of the camps. Thanks to these stringent measures, there are no recorded cases in any of the camps. Jordan is now in the process of building mobile hospitals, all while coordinating its approach to the camps with the WHO and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
Underreporting is not an issue. Jordan has fewer cases than the West due to stringent shutdown procedures. The government has emphasized transparency and honesty throughout the crisis; the problem is too large to hide from the people. The country will soon have the ability to test 10,000 people per day, comparable to the United States.
Meanwhile, Jordan is working with the international system and trading essential goods. This includes producing hydroxychloroquine and, within the next week, exporting masks and coveralls. The Central Bank is easing the economic burden by providing interest-free loans that help businesses keep employees on the payroll. Similarly, the government’s massive donation campaign has been able to support more than 150,000 families.
Indeed, the pandemic has highlighted the interconnectivity of public health and the economy. The post-COVID world will be entirely different, and people will come away with an appreciation for the importance of social contact, freedom, and unity.
ABDULLAH ALGWIZANI
Saudi Arabia’s past experience in dealing with Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has been invaluable in the fight against COVID-19. King Salman issued a decree allowing everyone in the country, including undocumented residents, free treatment for the disease. In addition, the country has suspended the Umrah pilgrimage, restricted international travel, closed schools and mosques, and banned travel between Saudi cities. The kingdom’s first case was identified in a small city in the Eastern Province. Since then, contact tracing and quarantines have helped keep the number of cases down to around 20,000 at last count, with 150 deaths.
The kingdom has pledged $500 million to combating COVID-19 globally, which will hopefully speed up the process of finding a vaccine. The newly created Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control is small, but the government is committed to scaling up its testing and working with the international community. It is now approaching the capacity to test 22,000 people per day and up to 9 million per year. It has also dedicated twenty-five hospitals to meet anticipated demand. In addition, the kingdom has vaccinated 4.5 million people for the flu—an important measure as winter approaches and COVID-19 overlaps with seasonal respiratory illnesses.
There are so many unknowns about the virus, such as why it differs from country to country. Yet it has already taught us many lessons: that a significant amount of work can be done remotely; that health issues affect the economic and social sectors alike; and that greater pandemic preparedness is sorely needed given the risk of future diseases. A “One Health” approach is necessary, including multi-sectoral and intergovernmental cooperation in identifying new diseases.
This summary was prepared by Elise Burr. The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.