LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 19/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.march19.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Saint Joseph’s Day/The virgin will conceive and give birth to a son, and they will call him Immanuel
Matthew 01/18-25/This is how the birth of Jesus the Messiah came about: His mother Mary was pledged to be married to Joseph, but before they came together, she was found to be pregnant through the Holy Spirit. Because Joseph her husband was faithful to the law, and yet did not want to expose her to public disgrace, he had in mind to divorce her quietly. But after he had considered this, an angel of the Lord appeared to him in a dream and said, “Joseph son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary home as your wife, because what is conceived in her is from the Holy Spirit.She will give birth to a son, and you are to give him the name Jesus, because he will save his people from their sins.” All this took place to fulfill what the Lord had said through the prophet: “The virgin will conceive and give birth to a son, and they will call him Immanuel” (which means “God with us”). When Joseph woke up, he did what the angel of the Lord had commanded him and took Mary home as his wife. But he did not consummate their marriage until she gave birth to a son. And he gave him the name Jesus.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 18-19/2020
St. Joseph's Day/Elias Bejjani/March 19/20
Lebanon: Hints at Deal with US Over Fakhoury’s Case
RHUH Says Woman who Died in ER Did Not Have Pneumonia
ISF Member Tests Positive for Coronavirus
Lebanon: 133 Coronavirus Cases Confirmed, 4 Deaths
Fahmi: No Cases of Coronavirus Among Security Forces or Inmates
Wazni: Cabinet Likely to Approve Capital Control Law
Sfeir Says Politicians 'Better Not Interfere in Banking System'
Cellphone Shops to be Closed, Validity of Prepaid Lines Extended
Military Cassation Court receives demand to appeal verdict in Amer Fakhoury's case
President receives Minister of Interior and Municipalities
Hariri Hospital issues statement clarifying death of patient at corona emergency
No coronavirus cases among security forces and inmates: Interior Minister
Tripoli Van Drivers Block Road for 2nd Day over Virus Ban
Lebanon: Citizens Criticize State of 'General Mobilization' Against Corona But Abide By It/Sanaa Al-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 18/2020
Virus Sinks Lebanon Demos Hotspot Deeper into Doldrums
Kubis renews UN support for Lebanon stability
'Impunity is a pattern': The lawyers taking on torture in Lebanon's prisons/Alicia Medina/The New Arab/March 18/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 18-19/2020
UNESCO: Nearly Half the World's Students Not at School
U.S. sanctions Iran, seeks release of Americans amid coronavirus outbreak
Zaghari-Ratcliffe temporarily released from prison over coronavirus fears
Iraqi Shia pilgrims defy curfews and coronavirus
Turkish Forces Attack YPG Positions in North Syria
Clashes Break Out Between Migrants, Greek Police at Turkish Border
Virus death toll spikes in Iran, with total now at 1,135
Don't Rush COVID-19 Vaccine, Expert Warns
Italy Reports 475 Virus Deaths, Highest One-Day Toll of Any Nation
COVID-19: How Many People Will Die?

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 18-19/2020
Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed/Michael Knights/The Washington Institute/March 18/2020
Turkish Government Responsible for Torture, Arbitrary Killings, and Disappearances/Aykan Erdemir/Philip Kowalski/FDD/March 18/2020
Goodbye to the Old Israeli Left/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 18/2020
Fear of the Coronavirus Comes to Rescue the Gun Industry/Francis Wilkinson/Bloomberg/March 18/2020
Conspiracy Theories in a Time of Virus/Daniel Pipes/Washington Times/March 18/2020
EU mulls more refugee aid for Turkey despite resentment of Ankara's stance in border crisis/Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/March 18/2020
When this virus crisis ends, what will be the new normal?/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/March 18/2020
The threats facing our planet are interconnected/Amy Luers/Arab News/March 18/2020
Europe facing a perfect political and economic storm/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/March 18/2020
Coronavirus prevention extremely difficult in refugee, IDP camps in Middle East/Mona Yacoubian/Al Arabiya/March 18/ 2020
No time for trial and error, global governance must take action to stop COVID-19/Diana Galeeva/Al Arabiya/March 18/ 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 18-19/2020
St. Joseph's Dayعيد ما يوسف البتول
Elias Bejjani/March 19/20
The feast day of St. Joseph is celebrated annually on March 19/Our Bejjani family has proudly carried this name generation after generation for centuries and still do. May God and His angles safeguard our caring and loving son Youssef, and our grandson Joseph, who both carry this blessed name. It is worth mentioning that St. Joseph's Day is a Maronite and Roman Catholic feast day that commemorates the life of St. Joseph, the step-father of Jesus and husband of the Blessed Virgin Mary. People with very strong religious convictions among which are the Lebanese Maronites celebrate St. Joseph's Day on March 19 and believe that this day is St. Joseph's birthday too. Back home, in Lebanon St. Joseph is considered the Family Saint and looked upon as a family and hardworking father role model because of the great role that Almighty God had assigned him to carry. His duty was to raise Jesus Christ and take care of Virgin Mary. God has chose him to look after His begotten son and Virgin Marry. He fulfilled his Godly assignment with love, passion and devotion. May Al Mighty God bless all those that carry this name.

Lebanon: Hints at Deal with US Over Fakhoury’s Case
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 March, 2020
A Lebanese military judge on Wednesday asked the Cassation Court to overturn the verdict on the release of Amer Fakhoury, a former collaborator with Israel, amid mounting condemnation and hints at a political deal with the US. In a surprising decision on Monday, the Military Court acquitted Fakhoury of arresting, seizing, and torturing Lebanese citizens in the Khiam prison that Israel established during its occupation of southern Lebanon between 1985 and 2000. Fakhoury, who arrived six months ago from the US, was ordered released on Monday because more than 10 years had passed since he allegedly committed the crimes, the National News Agency reported. Judge Ghassan Khoury asked the Military Court of Appeals to strike down the ruling in favor of Fakhoury and issue an arrest warrant against him. He asked that Fakhoury be put on trial again on charges of kidnapping, torturing and detaining Lebanese citizens as well as “killing and attempting to kill others,” according to NNA. The decision to acquit Fakhoury sparked surprise and condemnation among Lebanese politicians. The leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, decried the ruling on Twitter, saying: “It is a poisonous potion for the presidency. ”Hezbollah issued a statement, saying: “Unfortunately, American pressure has paid off today.” “This is a sad day for Lebanon and for justice, and it is a decision that calls for regret, anger, and condemnation,” it added. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, opposition political sources asked whether the decision was linked to information about US sanctions that would affect Hezbollah’s allies outside the Shiite duo. The sources also asked whether there was a cost for acquitting Fakhoury, linked to “the normalization of US-Lebanese relations and the maintenance of a thin line between Washington and the Lebanese government that facilitates an American green light for the International Monetary Fund to provide cash assistance to Lebanon.” Well-informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision was made due to “tremendous pressure exerted by the United States on the Lebanese authorities to release Fakhouri, who holds an American passport, and the intensive contacts made by the US Ambassador in Beirut with Lebanese officials.”

RHUH Says Woman who Died in ER Did Not Have Pneumonia
Naharnet/March 18/2020
A woman who died Wednesday shortly after arriving at the coronavirus emergency section of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital was not suffering from pneumonia and the result of her coronavirus test will be released on Thursday, RHUH said. “She was suffering from breathlessness and she died after suffering a severe drop in blood pressure and a heart failure,” the hospital said in a statement, noting that the woman had chronic heart problems according to medical diagnosis. “A CT scan showed that she was not suffering from pneumonia,” the hospital added. The woman’s husband had told al-Jadeed that she had arrived at the hospital with a high fever and breathlessness. Al-Jadeed TV said the woman had chronic hypertension. Four confirmed coronavirus patients have so far died in Lebanon and the total number of infections has reached 133.

ISF Member Tests Positive for Coronavirus
Naharnet/March 18/2020
An Internal Security Forces member who hails from the eastern border town of al-Qaa has tested positive for coronavirus, the town’s municipality said on Wednesday. “ISF First Adjutant A.D., who hails from al-Qaa, has tested positive for coronavirus,” the municipality said in a statement. “He has been admitted into the Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut and he is in good health and his morale is high,” it added. “He has not visited the town since more than three months and he rarely comes in contact with al-Qaa residents due to the location of his work and residence,” the municipality said, urging all people to show caution and not be negligent about their health. Lebanon has so far confirmed 133 coronavirus cases among them four deaths. The country has gone on a two-week lockdown and taken drastic measures to limit the spread of the virus.

Lebanon: 133 Coronavirus Cases Confirmed, 4 Deaths
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 March, 2020
The Health Ministry announced on Wednesday that the total number of people who tested positive for the novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) has reached 133. The ministry renewed its call on “all citizens to adhere to the strict measures issued by the official authorities, and to stay home, except when absolutely necessary.” Four persons have succumbed to the virus since the first reported case on Feb. 21. The latest death was recorded on Wednesday, of a man in his 90s, who suffered from “several chronic diseases.”In parallel, a meeting was held on Tuesday between the Health Minister, Hamad Hassan and the employees of the Rafic Hariri Governmental Hospital, in the presence of the Director-General and Chairman of the Hospital Board, Dr. Firas Abyad and the Director of the office of the Minister of Public Health, Dr. Hassan Ammar. During the meeting, the minister announced that Prime Minister Hassan Diab has agreed to earmark additional amounts to allow the hospital to implement the salary scale law, a demand which has been raised by the hospital’s employees.He also said that two patients have fully recovered from the virus.

Fahmi: No Cases of Coronavirus Among Security Forces or Inmates
Naharnet/March 18/2020
The press office of Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi assured in a statement on Wednesday that no coronavirus cases were registered among members of the security forces or in Lebanon's jails. The statement said the ministry has taken a series of measures and precautions at Lebanon's prisons, mainly Roumieh prison being the biggest and most crowded, to prevent the spread of coronavirus. The statement said the measures were taken out of keenness on the safety and health of prisoners, their relatives and security members alike. One prisoner had suffered from fever and had tested negative for coronavirus, it added.

Wazni: Cabinet Likely to Approve Capital Control Law
Naharnet/March 18/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said the cabinet will likely approve the capital control law during its next meeting, with emphasis on protecting the rights of depositors, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday.
“There is a high possibility that the cabinet is to approve on Thursday the capital control law,” he said, noting that efforts “seek to reach a balanced version of the law that protects the rights of depositors mainly small depositors.” Banks in Lebanon are tightening banking controls, limiting the amounts of dollars depositors are allowed to withdraw every month, despite growing public anger. Faced with a dollar liquidity crunch, banks have imposed informal controls on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad since September amid widespread anti-government protests and Lebanon's worst economic crisis in decades. On an economic plan to solve Lebanon’s ailing economy, Wazni noted that efforts are ongoing to complete a “rescue-reform plan within a one month period,” he told the daily. Wazni criticized the banks’ decision to suspend work until March 29 over the coronavirus threat, saying they should have adapted their work to meet the needs of customers. “Banks should have adapted their work according to the general mobilization state announced by the government to continue to meet the needs of customers according to a specific rotation program among employees, taking into consideration protection measures against coronavirus,” he added.

Sfeir Says Politicians 'Better Not Interfere in Banking System'
Naharnet/March 18/2020
Salim Sfeir, the head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, has said that a default on the country’s Eurobond debt “could have been avoided.”In an interview with the Financial Times published Wednesday, Sfeir criticized the government, saying the default was “handled in a non-professional manner.”Politicians “better not interfere in the banking system,” said Sfeir, who is chairman and chief executive of Bank of Beirut. “Let it be the responsibility of the central bank and not the politicians,” he said. Sfeir also blamed the public sector for “bad management” leading to the cash crisis. Lebanon is currently facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to slash salaries, dismiss staff or close. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a public debt equivalent to 150 percent of its GDP. The country defaulted on a $1.2 billion Eurobond debt that was due to be paid on March 9. Economists had warned that payment on time would eat away at plummeting foreign currency reserves, while bankers cautioned that a default would damage Lebanon's reputation with lenders.
Bank of America Merill Lynch in a November report estimated that around 50 percent of Eurobonds were held by local banks, while the central bank had around 11 percent. Foreign investors owned the remainder, or around 39 percent, it said. But these figures may have changed, with local media reporting that local banks have recently sold a chunk of their Eurobonds to foreign lenders.

Cellphone Shops to be Closed, Validity of Prepaid Lines Extended
Naharnet/March 18/2020
Cellphone shops will be closed in Lebanon and the validity of prepaid lines will be extended by a month due to the coronavirus crisis, the telecom minister said on Wednesday. “An additional one-month grace period will be given to the subscribers of the Alfa and touch firms for paying their bills,” Talal Hawat told al-Jadeed TV. The Telecommunications Ministry meanwhile launched a donations campaign to aid the country’s anti-coronavirus efforts. For every SMS sent to 1122, LBP 1,500 will be donated to the country’s government-appointed anti-coronavirus committee, the Ministry said. The government had on Sunday declared a two-week state of “general mobilization,” closing the country’s air, land and sea ports of entry and ordering the closure of all non-essential public and private institutions. Citizens and residents were meanwhile asked to stay home unless it is extremely necessary to go out. Lebanon has so far confirmed 133 coronavirus cases among them four deaths.

Military Cassation Court receives demand to appeal verdict in Amer Fakhoury's case
NNA/March 18/2020
Military Cassation Court 's Judge Tani Lattouf on Wednesday received the plea submitted by state commissioner before the military tribunal, Judge Ghassan Khoury, hereby demanding to appeal a verdict allowing the release of collaborator Amer Khoury.

President receives Minister of Interior and Municipalities
NNA/March 18/2020
President Michel Aoun met Interior and Municipalities Minister, Brigadier General Mohammad Fahmy, today at Baabda Palace, and discussed with him security and prison conditions, especially after recent developments in Roumieh Prison. The meeting also tackled the expedited draft law (approved by the Cabinet in yesterday's session), which aims to exempt convicts who have served their sentence and are still imprisoned for not paying their fines.
The necessity of providing decent healthcare and sterilization for all prisoners was also discussed, especially in these delicate conditions which Lebanon, and the world, are going through due to Corona outbreak.
After the meeting, Minister Fahmy said that he informed the President about the reasons which led to some of Roumieh prison events, which had been worked out. ---Presidency Press Office

Hariri Hospital issues statement clarifying death of patient at corona emergency

NNA/March 18/2020
The Administration of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital on Wednesday clarified in a statement the details of the death of a citizen at the Corona emergency unit, which reads: “This afternoon, a female patient arrived to the Corona emergency, showing symptoms of shortness of breath with a deteriorating health condition, so she was given the necessary medical attention, but the patient passed away after suffering from severe low blood circulation and heart failure.”The statement added: “The diagnosis has showed that the patient was suffering from chronic heart muscle failure, and a CT scan showed that she had no pulmonary infections. The patient was tested for corona. However, the result will not be released until tomorrow, to verify whether she was infected with the Corona virus or not. "

No coronavirus cases among security forces and inmates: Interior Minister
NNA/March 18/2020
The press office of Interior Minister, Mohammad Fahmi, indicated in a statement on Wednesday that there are no coronavirus cases among security forces and inmates in Lebanon's jails. According to the statement, the prisoner suffering from fever had tested negative for coronavirus.

Tripoli Van Drivers Block Road for 2nd Day over Virus Ban
Naharnet/March 18/2020
Drivers of passenger vans on Wednesday blocked the Tripoli-Beirut highway for a second day after the government barred them from operating as part of a two-week coronavirus lockdown. The National News Agency said the drivers blocked the road in the Palma area twice on Wednesday, after having blocked it on Tuesday. At Tripoli’s al-Tal Square, drivers staged a sit-in during which a spokesman warned that they might resort to permanent roadblocks to express their grievances. “The drivers are facing the coronavirus threat and the rulers’ injustice,” he lamented, decrying that unlicensed cars, vans and buses were operating despite the ban. “The Interior Minister must take action,” he urged, calling for “immediate compensations for the drivers.” “We are addressing the Social Affairs Ministry, the High Relief Council and the entire government,” the spokesman went on to say.

Lebanon: Citizens Criticize State of 'General Mobilization' Against Corona But Abide By It
Sanaa Al-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 18/2020
A Banner telling citizens that they are banned for accessing the waterfront as part of the measure to curb the spread of the corona virus.
The Lebanese capital Beirut has turned into a large voluntary prison for its residents in an attempt to limit the spread of the Coronavirus after the government announced a state of "General Mobilization".
Patrols in Ashrafieh, Barbour, and Hamra confirm that people are abiding with the instructions to stay at home amid a total lock-down of most stores except for those selling groceries, which are not seeing many customers as the majority have resorted to having their groceries delivered to their homes.
The different precautionary measures adopted are being followed to different degrees in different regions. At the entrance to the Sabra and Shatila camps, traffic usual and people are still gathering on the street.
In Barbour, all stores are closed except for vegetable markets where people are taking no precautions. Their only concern is their day-to-day materials. One of them says: "If we work we eat if we don't we starve. There is no escaping from what God has written for us, with or without Corona".
According to surveys, only 15% of people are not abiding by the government's instructions, whether in Beirut or otherwise. Hisham, from the town of Ghazieh in South Lebanon, tells Asharq Al-Awsat that "90% of stores are closed. The municipality is raising awareness using 'friendly checkpoints' where participants maintain social distance wearing masks and carrying sanitizers and giving out pamphlets with precautionary measures to those who are without any protection".
Qantara, an activist in the popular movement tells us, "General Mobilization is not effective in ministries and public institutions. They need special procedures. The government is unable to meet the daily demands of people despite imposing a quarantine on them. It does not have what is needed to support their persistence. They ask us to help them but they don't help us back".Ibrahim, who used to own a restaurant in Hamra Street, agrees, saying, "A state that respects itself provides compensation after announcing general mobilization".
Hiam al-Shami, a resident of Hamra Street, sees the General Mobilization as less of a precaution than those adopted in other countries. She says that she "wanted to travel to Athens to meet my husband, but was told not to leave the house for 15 days if I were to travel. So I preferred to stay in Beirut where I could leave the house while taking the necessary precautions". She adds: "Going around Hamra is sad, everything is closed. Even the American University of Beirut, which did not close its doors during every war in the region, is closed".
She admits that she has "foregone every luxury she was used to and is no longer shy to refuse to meet relatives and friends".

Virus Sinks Lebanon Demos Hotspot Deeper into Doldrums
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 18/2020
In Lebanon's anti-government protest hotspot Tripoli, Amim Mahbani has struggled to rescue his clothes shop from a freefalling economy. Now the novel coronavirus has left its very survival in peril.
Lebanese authorities have ordered shops to close for two weeks to fight COVID-19, compounding a crisis that traders in the country's poverty-stricken second city Tripoli say was already in full swing. "We've shuttered our shops, but no one was entering them anyway because of this grinding economic crunch," Mahbani said, according to AFP. "The government announcing a health emergency has just come to finish us off," the 52-year-old father of three said, following Sunday's orders from Beirut. Dubbed the "bride" of Lebanon's months-long protest movement for its vibrant anti-government rallies, Tripoli has been plunged into economic despair. "Traders are simply no longer able to sustain financial losses," said Mahbani, who has been forced to lay off eight of his nine employees. As Lebanon faces its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, prices have skyrocketed, the Lebanese pound has plunged in value and unemployment is rampant. This is the case across the country, but Tripoli has been disproportionately hit because more than half of its population had already been living at or below the poverty line for years.
In the city's Azmi street and surrounding areas, shops have shuttered and others been starved for business.
'Never been as hard'
Outside a lingerie store, Sherine pleaded with passersby to step inside before the ordered shutdown. Her eyes darting left and right, she scoured the street for desperately needed customers. "If I can sell, then I'll be paid a salary," the 28-year-old shop assistant told AFP. "If I don't, then the store owner won't pay me."Her only colleague had already been fired and she feared her turn would be next. Tripoli, a port city on the eastern Mediterranean, had already suffered for several years from an economic downturn. From 2007 to 2014, it was the scene of frequent sectarian clashes between rival neighboring districts. The spillover of Syria's war in 2011 fueled violence and unleashed a wave of attacks, including a 2013 twin bombing on two Tripoli mosques that killed 45 people. Despite all this, Hussam Zaher -- who owns a women's boutique on the same street -- said business today was exceptionally bad. "It's never been as hard as these days," said the 60-year-old, who has owned the shop for around a quarter of a century. "My problem as a business owner is the liquidity crunch," he told AFP. "People who have money are spending it just on food, while things like clothes have become secondary."
'Lives flipped upside-down'
As a result, more than 120 shops in and around Azmi street have shuttered for good, said Talal Baroudi, who heads an association of merchants in the area. "The shops that have survived in the face of the economic crisis... are considered semi-closed because of the lack of business," he told AFP. "Most merchants have stopped stocking up on goods altogether." Faced with a liquidity crunch, Lebanese banks have since September imposed stringent controls on dollar withdrawals and halted transfers abroad. Account holders have been forced to deal in the nose-diving Lebanese pound, which has lost more than a third of its value on the black market. With limited access to her money, Wafaa Merehbi said her outings have been reduced to window shopping. "Our purchasing power is zero," said the 64-year-old. "We are using the $100 dollars the banks allow us to withdraw (every week) to eat."
Ismail Mukaddam said business at a nearby menswear store he has owned for the past 45 years was doomed. "Our lives have been flipped upside down," the 70-year-old said. "Things have never been this bad, not even at the peak of the civil war."

Kubis renews UN support for Lebanon stability
NNA/March 18/2020
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, on Wednesday renewed the international organization's support for the country's economic and social stability, as well as for all actions capable of ending local crises and meeting the aspirations of the Lebanese people. His stance came following a meeting with MP Bahiya Hariri at her Majdelyoun residence. Talks had reportedly featured high on the current general situation and latest developments in Lebanon and worldwide, especially amid the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The pair also discussed the current economic and financial condition in Lebanon.

'Impunity is a pattern': The lawyers taking on torture in Lebanon's prisons
Alicia Medina/The New Arab/March 18/2020
Torture in Lebanese detention centres remains a widespread practice carried out with impunity. One group of lawyers, however, is fighting against the system for accountability.Tags:Torture, Lebanon, prisons, impunity
A myriad of smartphones have captured how security forces have beaten protesters on the Lebanese streets since 17 October. But what followed after they were detained is less known. The Committee of Lawyers to Defend Protesters filed complaints last December on behalf of 17 protesters for the crime of torture against members of the security and military apparatus. "Many of the assaults were aimed to extract information and punish the protesters," said lawyer Ghida Frangieh, a member of the committee and The Legal Agenda, a Beirut-based NGO.
Contravening the law, the Military Prosecutor referred these complaints to the security and military agencies that are being accused of torture and then closed the investigations.
"Until today, we've not seen any transparent investigation or any member of the security police being held accountable," Frangieh told The New Arab.
In Lebanon this impunity is a pattern.
On paper, Lebanon has beefed up its legal arsenal against torture. In 2008 it became the first Middle Eastern nation to ratify the Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture (CAT) and in 2017 passed the Anti-Torture Law (Law 65/2017).
But the moves of lawmakers seem de-synchronised with the reality of detention cells and courtrooms.
Last October, in a conference room of a luxurious hotel in Beirut, a nervous man with a pile of papers listened to experts discussing the results of the Anti-Torture Law.
The representative of the Ministry of Justice, judge Angela Dagher, took to the stage to remark on Lebanon's fight against torture. Then the nervous man took the microphone.
"My name is Toufic al-Dika, father of Hassan al-Dika". The room fell deadly silent.
Toufic saw his son enter prison accused of drug-related charges in November 2018. Seven months later he was handed his dead body.
e of documents in front of him attests to the fight of Toufic, who acted as his son's lawyer, to seek accountability: copies of complaints, medical reports and 16 letters sent by Hassan describing the beatings and electric shocks he was subjected to.Stress positions, beatings, electric shocks and food deprivation are common practice in detention centres
Toufic read out loud the letter sent by Hassan the day he died: "I have fell down many times, I am not even able to stand".
"The judiciary and the intelligence branch are responsible of the death of my son," said Toufic. Dagher acknowledged "some problems in the judiciary" but added that "we can not put all the evils of our country in the judicial alone".
Sitting next to Toufic, Ghassan Mukheiber, an ex-lawmaker who contributed to the draft of Law 65, addressed Dagher: "Is there a single veridic by Lebanese judges to criminalise torture?"
After a moment of silence, Mukheiber answered. None.
The architecture of impunity
Stress positions, beatings, electric shocks or food deprivation are common practice in detention centres according to a report by the Lebanese Centre for Human Rights (CLDH).
Torture is "considered as a valid method of investigation and punishment" and is "accepted by the Lebanese Justice system", CLDH concluded. Detainees accused of terrorism, drugs or theft; Syrians and Palestinian refugees, migrant workers, lower-income detainees, sex workers or LGBT individuals are the most vulnerable groups to be tortured by the Army Intelligence, General Security and the Internal Security Forces, say multiple NGOs.
The portfolio of two lawyers offers a glimpse of the spread of torture. Mohamad Sablouh, representative of the Lawyers Syndicate of Tripoli, has documented 35 cases of torture but no accountability has been achieved. "The problem is that the judges are not cooperating in order to implement the UNCAT," he denounced.
Lawyer Diala Shehade has worked in 202 cases where detainees told the judge they had been tortured. She represented the families of three Syrians that died under army custody in 2017.
The forensic examination documented evidence of violence in their bodies but "the conclusion was worded in a very tricky way because the doctors were under threat," Shehade explained. No one has been held accountable yet. "We need at least one case to become a precedent, to be a lesson," urged Shehade.
One of Shehade's clients claims he was tortured first by Hezbollah and then by the Lebanese security forces. He is a Syrian national that in 2014 fled to Lebanon after the militia he led in Syria was defeated by Assad's forces.
Syrian and Palestinian refugees, migrant workers, lower-income detainees, sex workers or LGBT individuals are the most vulnerable groups to be tortured
This man, who will be identified as Ahmed, says he was kidnapped by Hezbollah and spent over a year in an underground unknown location suffering daily beatings the first four months. During this time his wife and children did not know his whereabouts.
After Hezbollah released him, Ahmed was detained by the Army Intelligence and accused by General Security of dealing with a member of the Al-Nusra Front (a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda). Ahmed denied the charges saying his militia whose name he declined to give - fought Al-Nusra in Syria. He spent 21 days in an isolation cell while being interrogated. He says he was severely beaten and electrocuted every day To push him to sign a confession, Ahmed's wife was detained for nine days. His wife says she was beaten once because the interrogator "was pissed off" with her.
Ahmed signed a confession, without being allowed to read it and served a nine-month sentence on terrorism charges. During that investigative phase he could not communicate with his lawyer. Shehade pointed out that military tribunals forbid lawyers to meet with their clients during that period, which is against the Lebanese procedural code.
Ahmed says the judge ignored him when he tried to show him evidence of torture on his hands and legs. Legislation states that if there is an allegation of torture an investigation should follow in 48 hours, including a medical examination. But that's rarely the case.
Judges normally assign prison doctors to check on the detainees. "A doctor who gets his salary from the same security authorities that has tortured my client," said lawyer Sablouh. One of his clients was subjected to electric shocks on his genitals and the judge assigned a juris doctor, but six months after the incident.
The key to stopping torture would be for the judges to accept a confession only if it was signed with a lawyer present in the interrogation, said lawyers Shehade and Sablouh. "If the judicial authorities support us in combating torture, the security authorities will not dare to continue the torture practices," said Sablouh.
In-depth: As Lebanon grapples with economic collapse and a coronavirus outbreak, refugees appeal for international help
Ex-lawmaker Mukheiber argued that the main problem are the violations of the penal procedural code: period of arrest, access to a lawyer, interpreter, doctor or the right to make a phone call.
Law 65 also has shortcomings. Amnesty International's researcher Sahar Mandour criticised the statute of limitations of 3 to 10 years after the release of the victim. In her view crimes of torture should not apply. The preamble of Law 65 establishes that regular judicial courts, not military ones, will hear torture cases, but due to a loophole in the law, torture cases keep being referred to military courts.
Sablouh urged the international community to "put pressure on Lebanon" to abide by the Convention Against Torture, which in Lebanon exists "only in writing".
*The New ArabAlicia Medina is a freelance journalist based in Lebanon.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published 
on March 18-19/2020
UNESCO: Nearly Half the World's Students Not at School
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 March, 2020
More than 850 million young people, or nearly half the world's student population, are barred from their school and university grounds because of the coronavirus pandemic, UNESCO said Wednesday. Calling it an "unprecedented challenge" for education, UNESCO said schools had been closed in 102 countries, with partial closures in 11 more -- and there would be more closures. "Over 850 million children and youth -- roughly half of the world's student population -- had to stay away from schools and universities," the UN educational organization said in a statement. "This represents more than a doubling in four days in the number of learners prohibited from going to educational institutions," it added, citing figures from late Tuesday. "The scale and speed of the school and university closures represents an unprecedented challenge for the education sector," it said. UNESCO said countries worldwide were rushing to fill the void by offering real-time video classes and other high-tech solutions. Some countries were offering classes over television or radio. The organization said it was holding regular virtual meetings with education ministers around the world to find the best solutions and determine priorities. Coronavirus deaths in Europe have exceeded the toll in Asia for the first time, an Agence France Presse tally of official data showed Wednesday. By 1100 GMT, Europe counted at least 3,421 deaths, compared with 3,384 for Asia, where China was the initial epicenter of a pandemic which has infected more than 194,000 people globally and killed 7,873. Italy has the most fatalities in Europe with 2,503.

U.S. sanctions Iran, seeks release of Americans amid coronavirus outbreak
Humeyra Pamuk, Arshad Mohammed/Reuters/March 18/2020
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States imposed fresh sanctions on Iran on Tuesday, keeping up its economic pressure campaign even as it offered to help Tehran cope with the coronavirus pandemic and called on the Islamic Republic to release detained Americans.
Iran is considering freeing some U.S. citizens, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at a news conference where he made clear Washington will maintain its maximum-pressure campaign to choke off Tehran’s ability to export its oil.
The campaign, instituted after President Donald Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal Iran struck with six major powers, aims to force Iran to limit its nuclear, missile and regional activities.Pompeo on Tuesday said the State Department is blacklisting nine entities based in South Africa, Hong Kong and China, as well as three Iranian individuals, for engaging in “significant transactions” to trade in Iranian petrochemicals.
While he did not name them, Pompeo said the step included blacklisting Iran’s armed forces social security investment company and its director for investing in sanctioned entities. Separately, the Commerce Department said it will add six people - including five Iranian nuclear scientists - and 18 corporations to the U.S. “Entity List” for aiding Iran’s nuclear program, Pakistan’s unsafeguarded nuclear and missile programs, and Russian military modernization efforts. Without naming them, the Commerce Department said the move covers one company in Iran, two entities in China, nine in Pakistan, and five in the United Arab Emirates and will constrict the export of certain items to them.
The Entity List names foreign parties that are barred from receiving some or all items subject to U.S. export regulations unless the exporter secures a license, according to the department.
On Monday, sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue said the United States was unlikely to ease sanctions on Iran despite an appeal from China that it do so because of the pandemic.
Pompeo urged Iran to free U.S. citizens it has detained as a humanitarian gesture because of coronavirus. Iran has reported 16,169 coronavirus cases and 988 deaths in one of the worst national outbreaks outside of China, where the pandemic originated.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives for a news conference on the current state of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the State Department in Washington, U.S., March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Tom Brenner
“We are aware that they are thinking about whether to release them or not,” Pompeo told reporters. “We are urging them ... to release every American that is being wrongfully held there as a humanitarian gesture, given the risk that is posed.”
It is not clear exactly how many Americans Iran may hold, but they include father and son Baquer and Siamak Namazi; Michael White, a Navy veteran; and possibly Robert Levinson, a former FBI agent missing since 2007.
*Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Arshad Mohammed; Writing by Arshad Mohammed; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Jonathan Oatis

Zaghari-Ratcliffe temporarily released from prison over coronavirus fears
The Arab Weekly/March 18/2020
LONDON – British Iranian charity worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been temporarily released from prison in Iran due to the coronavirus outbreak, her husband confirmed. Zaghari-Ratcliffe is required to war an ankle tag and remain within 300m of her parents’ home in Tehran after the Iranian government released her, alongside tens of thousands of other prisoners, in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus. “The issue now is to make it permanent,” her husband Richard Ratcliffe said, “It is hard to relax just yet.”Zaghari-Ratcliffe was jailed for five years in 2016 after being convicted of espionage charges, something that she and the UK government denies. "I am relieved that Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe was today temporarily released into the care of her family in Iran,” said UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. “We urge the regime to ensure she receives any necessary medical care,” he added. In a statement issued by the Free Nazanin campaign, Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she was “so happy to be out.” In a statement released through the Free Nazanin campaign, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she was “so happy to be out”. “Even with the ankle tag, I am so happy… Being out is so much better than being in - if you knew what hell this place is. It is mental. Let us hope it will be the beginning of coming home,” she added.

Iraqi Shia pilgrims defy curfews and coronavirus
News agencies/March 18/2020
BAGHDAD - Stealing around barbed wire barriers through fields and side streets, dozens of black-clad Shia pilgrims in Baghdad defied curfews and coronavirus this week to visit the shrine of a revered imam. Seeking to stem an outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than half of Iraq's 18 provinces have declared curfews of several days. Baghdad, the Arab world's second most populous capital with 10 million in habitants, imposed a curfew from Tuesday evening for six days. But the government's social distancing efforts are facing a hurdle, as pilgrims defy restrictions to commemorate the anniversary of the death of revered Shia Imam Musa al-Kadhim. The anniversary, which will be marked on Saturday, typically draws millions of pilgrims from around the world each year to Baghdad, to visit and kiss the gold-domed shrine housing the imam's resting place on the banks of the Tigris River. Traditionally, pilgrims converge on foot on the imposing complex to pray and take part in mourning ceremonies that lasts several days. Top cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has urged Iraqis not to gather in large numbers for prayers, where risk of contamination could be high, and declared the fight against the novel coronavirus a "sacred duty."
Iraq has imposed travel restrictions and shuttered shrines across the country, including that of Imam Kadhim. On Wednesday, Iraqi troops stationed around the site tried to persuade fervent pilgrims to return home. "It's for your own health that we're doing this," one soldier told an elderly woman in the street.
"No one can prevent us from visiting our imams! Not terrorism, not war, not a virus!" she shot back. Musa al-Kadhim, the seventh of 12 imams venerated by Shia Muslims, died in 799 while in detention by Abbasid caliph Harun al-Rashid. At another checkpoint, a group of around 20 men waved flags bearing yellow and green religious emblems as they tried to make their way past soldiers blocking the street. In contrast, the holy Shia shrine city of Najaf, south of Baghdad, was markedly quiet. The mausoleum of the Prophet Mohammad's son-in-law Ali was shut and its usually busy esplanade empty, an AFP photographer said. Health authorities have reported 13 deaths and 164 infections in Iraq from the novel coronavirus. However, many suspect the number of cases could be higher, as fewer than 2,000 people have been tested in a country of 40 million.Iraqis have expressed fear over the impact of a large outbreak in the country, as years of conflict and poor investment have ravaged the country's health system.

Turkish Forces Attack YPG Positions in North Syria
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 March, 2020
The Turkish Army pounded on Tuesday Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) positions north of the Syrian province of Aleppo amid efforts to establish two observation points west of Idlib. Turkey continued to send military reinforcements to the countryside of the province, located in northwestern Syria. On Tuesday, a military convoy entered the town of Mahmil in the countryside of western Idlib. Turkish sources said that more than 10 armored vehicles carrying officers were seen touring the town, accompanied by members of the Ankara-backed Faylaq Al-Sham militant group. The sources said the Turkish officers explored two positions where the Turkish Army would later position to enhance its presence in areas close to the M4 road. Russia and Turkey have started patrolling the M4 highway, starting from the village of Al-Nayrab, in Idlib, and reaching the village of Ain Al-Hour, near the city of Jisr Al-Shughour. The patrols come after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, announced a ceasefire agreement in Idlib on March 5. However, hundreds of residents reject the Russian-Turkish patrols. On Sunday, some Syrian opposition factions obstructed the first patrol near Arihah by placing tires on the M4. Separately, Turkish tanks pounded Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions near the city of Azaz in the countryside of north Aleppo. The Turkish Defense Ministry said in a statement that it killed two SDF members attempting to infiltrate the Euphrates Shield zone in north Syria.
This week, the ministry announced the killing of 6 YPG members, including two officials, in the city of Tal Rafaat also in the countryside of north Aleppo. On October 9, Ankara launched the Operation Peace Spring against YPG members from the area east of the Euphrates River.

Clashes Break Out Between Migrants, Greek Police at Turkish Border
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 March, 2020
Clashes broke out overnight on Greece's border with Turkey early Wednesday, after 500 migrants attempted to break down a border fence and enter Greece. The clashes kicked off at 2 a.m. and lasted for roughly two hours during which Greek police used tear gas to repel the push to break down the fence south of the Kastanies border crossing. Greek police said Turkish authorities also fired tear gas at the Greek border. An estimated 2,000 migrants are still camped out on the Greek-Turkish border, weeks after Turkey declared its borders to Europe open. The Turkish announcement has encouraged migrants and refugees living in the country to try cross into European Union member Greece. Tens of thousands of people headed to the border despite Greece´s insistence that its eastern border, which is also the EU´s external border, was shut, the Associated Press reported. This came months after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened he would open his borders and allow millions of refugees into Europe unless the EU provided more support for refugee care in Turkey.

Virus death toll spikes in Iran, with total now at 1,135
By NASSER KARIMI and AYA BATRAWY/AP/March 18/2020
TEHRAN (AP) — Iran on Wednesday reported its single biggest jump in fatalities from the coronavirus as another 147 people died, raising the country’s overall death toll to 1,135. The nearly 15% spike in deaths — amid a total of 17,361 confirmed cases in Iran — marks the biggest 24-hour rise in fatalities since Iranian officials first acknowledged infections of the virus in mid-February. Even as the number of cases grows, food markets were still packed with shoppers and highways were crowded as families traveled ahead of the Persian New Year, Nowruz, on Friday.
Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi urged the public to avoid travel and crowds, telling Iranians the days ahead represented two “golden weeks” to try curb the virus.
He criticized people for not adhering to the warnings to stay home. “This is not a good situation at all,” he said.
President Hassan Rouhani defended his government’s response to the outbreak in the face of widespread criticism that Iran acted too slowly and might even have covered up initial cases. He told his Cabinet the government was being “straightforward,” saying it announced the outbreak as soon as it learned about it Feb. 19. “We spoke to people in an honest way. We had no delay,” he added.
For weeks, officials implored clerics to shut down crowded Shiite shrines to halt the spread of the virus. The government was only able to close them this week.
“It was difficult, of course, to shut down mosques and holy sites, but we did it. It was a religious duty to do it,” Rouhani said.
Iran also said it would close mosques for communal Friday prayers for a third consecutive week. Other Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have done so as well.
The virus, which causes the COVID-19 illness, has infected more than 200,000 people globally and killed more than 8,000. For most people, it causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority recover. World Health Organization director for the Eastern Mediterranean region, Ahmed Al-Mandhari, said the many travel restrictions imposed by various countries are hurting efforts to combat the virus by delaying both the deployment of health experts and the delivery of urgently needed medical supplies.
Millions across the Middle East were under curfews, quarantines or almost total lockdowns.
In Egypt, the Hilton Green Plaza hotel in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria was quarantined after a British guest showed symptoms. A hotel employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to talk to the press, declined to say how many people were in the hotel but added the Health Ministry gave foreign guests the option of leaving to return to their home countries before a suspension of all flights goes into effect Thursday.
Egypt, which has reported nearly 200 cases and six deaths from the virus, has also quarantined more than 300 families in a Nile Delta village, and imposed a lockdown in the Red Sea resort town of Hurghada. All workers at hotels and tourist sites in Sharm el-Sheikh, Luxor and Aswan were ordered to self quarantine for 14 days.
In the capital of Cairo, coffee shops and restaurants were closed in the city of over 20 million, with plain-clothes security forces telling people to go home.
“I am financially ruined. How can I earn my living now?” said Mohammed Gamal, a worker in a coffee shop that was shut down.
In Israel, which reported 427 infections, authorities put the country in near-shutdown mode, ordering tens of thousands into home quarantine, turning unused hotels into hospitals and setting up drive-through testing centers. Most controversially, the government instructed the shadowy Shin Bet internal security service to deploy phone surveillance technology to track movements of those infected.
Israel’s Population and Immigration Authority said it was barring entry to all foreign nationals. It was also closing its land borders to exits by Israeli nationals.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced a halt to all movement out of Bethlehem and two neighboring towns with coronavirus cases and urged Bethlehem residents to stay home starting Wednesday night. Palestinians also were instructed not to work in Israeli settlements or enter Israel starting Sunday.
In Iraq, a week-long curfew began in Baghdad, allowing pedestrians on the streets only to buy necessary food and medicine. Armed police patrolled the city and set up roadblocks.
Some Iraqis flouted the curfew by reopening shops and taking family strolls. Some grocery stands and bakeries stayed open, but many appeared to be obeying the curfew. Iraq has had 11 deaths among 154 confirmed cases.
Pharmacist Shadha Jawad, 65, said her customers showed a lack of awareness regarding the consequences of the virus. “I don’t think anyone will stay indoors for seven days,” she said.
A 12-hour evening curfew was also announced in Libya’s east, which is governed by the self-styled Libyan Arab Armed Forces and commanded by Gen. Khalifa Hifter. They also closed borders with neighboring Sudan, Chad, Niger and Algeria. No virus cases have been reported in Libya, where the health care system has been decimated by years of conflict.
Pakistan confirmed its first death from coronavirus: a 50-year-old man who had returned from Saudi Arabia. The man tested positive Tuesday at a hospital in Peshawar, said government spokesman Ajmal Wazir.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, who visited China this week along with President Arif Alvi, said he is protectively quarantining himself. Pakistan has nearly 300 cases of the virus, with many having returned from Iran.
In Saudi Arabia, those in the public and private sectors were asked to work from home for two weeks. Only essential staff for supply-chain services, food delivery, grocery stores, pharmacies, health care and security are not working from home
Leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies may hold an extraordinary meeting next week about advancing a coordinated response to the pandemic. Saudi Arabia, which currently leads the G20 presidency, said it is communicating with countries to convene the virtual meeting.
As global stock markets remain volatile, the United Arab Emirates’ Securities and Commodities Authority said local exchanges would only be able to fluctuate 5%, rather than 10%, before trading is suspended.
*Batrawy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writers Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran; Aron Heller and Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem, Samya Kullab in Baghdad, Munir Ahmed in Islamabad and Samy Magdy, Maggie Michael and Noha El-Hennawy in Cairo contributed.
*The Associated Press receives support for health and science coverage from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Don't Rush COVID-19 Vaccine, Expert Warns
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 18/2020
The search for a vaccine against the novel coronavirus is vital but cannot be rushed and must respect standard safety protocols, a leading expert has cautioned. "It's essential that we work as hard and fast as possible to develop drugs and vaccines that are widely available across the world," Shibo Jiang, professor of virology at Shanghai's University of Fudan and the New York Blood Center, wrote in the journal Nature. "But it is important not to cut corners." Jiang, who has worked on coronavirus vaccines since the 2003 SARS outbreak, said regulators should evaluate any vaccine's efficacy against a range of viruses and use several animal subjects before testing in humans. "Governments are understandably desperate for anything that would forestall the deaths, closures and quarantines resulting from COVID-19," he wrote.
"But combating this disease demands a vaccine that is safe and potent." Experts have warned that a vaccine could be more than a year away as clinical trials need to ensure it is safe in human test subjects before distributing to the wider public. Nearly 200,680 people around the world have been infected with COVID-19, with more than 8,000 deaths, as of 1300 GMT Wednesday.

Italy Reports 475 Virus Deaths, Highest One-Day Toll of Any Nation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 18/2020
Italy on Wednesday reported 475 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, the highest one-day official toll of any nation since the first case was detected in China late last year. Total deaths in Italy have reached 2,978, more than half of all the cases recorded outside China, while the number of infections stood at 35,713. The previous record high of 368 deaths was also recorded in Italy, on Sunday. The nation of 60 million has now recorded 34.2 percent of all the deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 across the world. With the death rate still climbing despite the Mediterranean country entering a second week under effective lockdown, officials urged Italians to have faith and to stay strong. "They main thing is, do not give up," Italian National Institute of Health chief Silvio Brusaferro said in a nationally televised press conference. "It will take a few days before we see the benefits" of containment measures, said Brusaferro. "We must maintain these measures to see their effect, and above all to protect the most vulnerable." Imposed nationally on March 12, the shutdown of most Italian businesses and a ban on public gatherings are due to expire on March 25. But school closures and other measures, such as a ban fan attendance at sporting events, are due to run on until April 3. A top government minister hinted Wednesday that the school closure would be extended well into next month, if not longer. The rates within Italy itself remained stable, with two-thirds of the deaths -- 1,959 in all -- reported in the northern Lombardy region around Milan, the Italian financial and fashion capital. The neighboring Emilia-Romagna region of Bologna has suffered a total of 458 fatalities, and Turin's Piedmont region has had 154 deaths.
Rome's Lazio region has a toll of 32 deaths and 724 infections.

COVID-19: How Many People Will Die?
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 18/2020
Though scientists are still scrambling to understand new coronavirus and its likely impact, experts are warning it could kill millions globally unless widespread and prolonged social distancing measures are adopted. While models predicting new COVID-19 cases are still operating on several preliminary assumptions -- including its mortality and transmissibility -- the figures quickly get scary.  A bombshell study from a team of infectious disease experts at Imperial College London this week predicted that without intervention the disease could lead to 510,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States. Using the best estimates of current COVID-19 infections rates, they hypothesized that over 80 percent of the populations of both countries would get the disease. However, it specified that taking measures to prevent unnecessary transmissions -- including radical "social distancing" such as closing schools and businesses -- could drastically decrease the death toll by managing the strain on health services. So while the worst case scenario is unlikely given containment measures, it can help form vital decisions from governments. Respected public health expert Anthony Fauci told CNN on Sunday that it was "possible" hundreds of thousands of Americans could die. "We have to be realistic and honest: yes, it is possible (and) our job... is to try and make that not happen," he said.
Mitigation or suppression?
The Imperial study looked at the effects of two containment methods: mitigation, which seeks to slow the spread of the virus; and suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth and maintaining that indefinitely.
It found that even strict mitigation measures would still see British and American intensive care capacity overwhelmed and lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. "For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option," it said. The team said that such a strategy would require "social distancing of the entire population" and quarantine for families of confirmed cases. It also warned that cases would spike whenever social distancing measures are eased. Overall, COVID-19 suppression efforts would come at "significant" social and economic cost, and would need to last as long as it takes to come up with a widely-available vaccine -- as long as 18 months. The study forced the British government to switch up its tactics, advising citizens to stay home when possible. In France, the government has implemented an unprecedented lockdown, shuttering all non-essential businesses, closing schools and requiring residents to carry a document declaring why they have left the house.
Need for testing
For weeks, the British government pursued a path of minimum intervention seeking to manage new infections and eventually gain "herd immunity" against the virus. The Imperial study offered some sobering perspective on this approach: 250,000 dead in Britain and 1.1 million in the US if replicated there. body advising the French government's on its response warned that unmitigated spread could infect 50 percent of the population and lead to "hundreds of thousands of deaths in France". Save from advising citizens to wash their hands and not touch their faces, every policy decision to limit the virus' impact must also be balanced against social and economic interests. "We need to know what works –- what level of containment actually makes a difference to block transmission. That is still unclear," Sharon Lewin, head of the world-leading Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne.
"Do you need to go Wuhan-style to completely stop it?," she told AFP, referring to stringent lockdown measures imposed in the Chinese city where the outbreak emerged in December. One of the biggest barriers to accurate COVID-19 modelling is the lack of available tests. Preliminary evidence suggests a large proportion of patients display only mild symptoms and may get the disease and recover without being tested. This would have a knock-on effect on the disease's mortality rate, and it is likely that positive tests trend towards the more serious, heavily symptomatic cases. This can only be widely known once tests for COVID-19 antibodies -- for example those patients who had it and recovered -- are established. "Once we have that we will have a far better idea of the severity of the illness, and in which age groups," said Cecile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the U.S. National Institutes of Health.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 18-19/2020
Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed
Michael Knights/The Washington Institute/March 18/2020
As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.
In the early hours of March 17, Iraqi president Barham Salih nominated the country’s next candidate for prime minister, Shia politician Adnan al-Zurfi. Iran’s closest allies in the Iraqi parliament have vowed to oppose his parliamentary ratification, due by April 16, and may raise legal challenges to the nomination in the meantime. Likewise, Iran’s militia proxies reacted with their third, fourth, and fifths attacks on coalition forces in a week, targeting the U.S. embassy and the Taji and Bismayah training bases near Baghdad.
How can the United States respond to these provocations without derailing a potentially positive development? Iraq desperately needs effective leadership at a time of intertwining economic, political, security, and health crises, and Zurfi appears capable of providing it. To increase his chances of ratification, the U.S. government should temporarily adopt a defensive military posture, “banking” response strikes for the future while using diplomatic measures to deal with militia attacks for now. On the political front, it needs to be visibly helpful with Iraq’s multiple crises but invisible in all other matters. And to show faith in Zurfi, Washington should renew and lengthen its energy sanctions waiver.
THE ROAD TO NOMINATING ZURFI
Iraq’s government formation process has entered uncharted territory twice in the past four months: on December 2, when mass public protests forced Adil Abdulmahdi to resign, the first prime minister to do since the fall of Saddam; and again on March 1, when Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi became the first prime minister-designate to fall short of ratifying a government by the thirty-day constitutional deadline. Afterward, the Federal Supreme Court confirmed that the president was solely authorized to name Allawi’s replacement, and Salih appealed to all parties to come up with a consensus candidate. That failed, as did an effort by just the Shia parties to name one.
With the fifteen-day constitutional deadline for picking a candidate set to expire, Salih did something that is very rare and risky for Iraqi politicians these days: he fulfilled his oath, played by the rules, and chose the candidate he regarded as the most qualified. The international community should remember this and support Salih at a very trying time.
Zurfi is an intriguing candidate who was unlikely to garner unanimous backing from Iranian-backed Shia factions such as Hadi al-Ameri’s Fatah bloc (which holds 48 of the parliament’s 329 seats) and Faleh al-Fayyad’s Ataa bloc (8 seats). A former governor of Najaf, he has a history of push-and-shove with Shia Islamist parties and militias, yet seems to have overcome the concerns of Muqtada al-Sadr and certain other Shia leaders. A businessman and politician, he lived in the United States from 1992 to 2003 and holds citizenship there, though this has not prevented him from building effective relationships with many U.S.-skeptical Iraqi politicians.
The unlikely advent of his nomination represents potentially vital progress for Iraq, which has been hit with the perfect storm of coronavirus outbreaks, halved oil prices, popular unrest, and ongoing militia violence. Zurfi now has up to thirty days to form a cabinet and ratify it with a minimum of 165 votes in parliament. As things stand, he is quite likely to succeed because only some elements of Fatah are dead-set against him, and he has the connections needed to splinter remaining opposition. His challenge is to avoid any major defections in the coming weeks, particularly by the changeable Sadr. The United States can help reduce the likelihood of major disruptive developments by temporarily adjusting its current policies.
SELF-DEFENSE WITHOUT MAJOR ESCALATION
To compensate for their limited representation in parliament, those elements who oppose Zurfi’s nomination most vehemently will almost surely resort to armed force. Militia rocket attacks have attended almost every key milestone in the nomination process, and three new salvos landed after Salih chose him. Thus, while the United States needs to protect its personnel in Iraq, it also needs to avoid the trap that militias and their Iranian backers are setting: to bait Washington into a confrontation that undermines Zurfi’s nomination and boosts their own leverage. Policymakers should focus on the following options:
Consolidate and protect U.S. bases. The coalition is reportedly withdrawing from exposed forward bases such as al-Qayyara, al-Qaim, and Kirkuk in order to consolidate on bigger, better-protected bases like Erbil, Baghdad International Airport, and al-Asad. These moves will likely coincide with the arrival of U.S. Patriot missile and counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) batteries. The new approach is prudent and should be implemented in full, despite potentially diluting the campaign against the Islamic State for a time. Once the moves are completed, helicopter traffic and ground movements should be minimized.
Bank retaliatory responses. The United States should publicly and privately signal Iran and its proxies that even if certain rocket strikes pass without a major response for now, U.S. forces will retaliate for each of them at a time and place of their choosing. Besides potentially reducing the chance that militias will try to bait Washington at this sensitive time, this is generally a smarter way to do deterrence, since it allows for striking high-value militia leaders as they surface. Congress and the Trump administration should hold private discussions on determining the proper degree of military flexibility and response ratios.
Increase international pressure on militias. Over the past three months, Iran-backed militias have struck bases housing forces from Denmark, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, and Portugal. Washington should reassure these and other international players that it will rein in retaliatory strikes, so long as they agree to tenaciously and publicly condemn militia attacks on coalition forces, as some are already doing.
NON-MILITARY STEPS
Under Abdulmahdi’s tenure, U.S.-Iraq relations deteriorated to a level unseen since 2003. Washington should therefore give the next prime minister a soft landing, since the government now seems capable of turning toward a better future for the first time in two years. Non-military measures are vital in this regard, on both the symbolic and tangible levels:
Manage the COVID-19 crisis. As the pandemic intensifies, Iraqis will look to U.S. institutions like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for best practices and medical support. Washington should use its leverage as a major donor to the World Health Organization to ensure testing kits are rushed to Iraq, and send some symbolic humanitarian support directly (including drugs and ventilators), in the same manner that the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are sending such support to Iran.
Restore Iraqi prestige. Baghdad’s reputation has been battered by the collapse of its government and unchecked militia attacks on international military advisors. To help reverse this deterioration, U.S. officials should publicly welcome Zurfi with a warm and supportive tone even before ratification, while giving him the leeway to direct fair criticisms at America—as long as he does the same with Iran. They should also encourage him to strengthen his strategic communications with Iraqi protestors in order to reduce potential public opposition. Finally, they should begin hinting that the next prime minister will be welcomed for a White House visit once quarantine conditions are lifted by both states.
Support economic reforms. With oil prices plummeting, Iraq is in the worst economic peril of almost any Middle Eastern state—a situation that gives Washington yet another reason to push Saudi Arabia and the UAE into ending their price war with Russia. U.S. authorities could also prioritize the purchase of Iraqi oil when refreshing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a useful symbolic move. In parallel, they should begin building support for new IMF and World Bank engagement with Iraq, which may quickly become essential supports for the retrenching Iraqi economy.
Support energy independence. Existing U.S. efforts to increase gas treatment and gas-to-power projects in Iraq are now more important than ever, both to reduce Baghdad’s dependence on Iranian energy/fuel supplies and to increase the amount of Iraqi oil available for export. A bilateral strategic dialogue on these matters should be accelerated—even if virtually while international travel is restricted by the coronavirus. And as mentioned previously, Washington should bolster Zurfi by issuing a 120-day sanctions waiver as it did in the past, not at the current 45-day limit.
Gather international support for early elections. The United States should play an energetic (albeit back-seat) role on this issue, urging the UN and other international institutions to help Iraq’s parliament and next prime minister complete the elections code and reform the Independent High Electoral Commission.
These steps can help show the Iraqis that even in the midst of a global crisis, they have a friend in the United States, with one important proviso—that this friend will be even more responsive to their needs once they have an effective prime minister at the helm.
*Michael Knights is a senior fellow with The Washington Institute. Since 2003, he has conducted extensive on-the-ground research in Iraq alongside security forces and government ministries.

Turkish Government Responsible for Torture, Arbitrary Killings, and Disappearances
Aykan Erdemir/Philip Kowalski/FDD/March 18/2020
In its annual human rights report, released on March 11, the State Department documents egregious violations by the Turkish government, including arbitrary killings, suspicious deaths of persons in custody, forced disappearances, and torture. Along with similar findings in last year’s report, the latest assessment shows that systematic violations of human rights continue with impunity under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry dismissed the new report, which covers the 2019 calendar year, as a “politically motivated” product of “unfounded accusations based on ambiguous sources.” Ankara similarly dismissed the findings of last year’s report as “unfounded allegations, dubious information and biased interpretations.”
The abuses committed under Erdogan highlight the enormous gulf between Turkey’s constitutional provisions for the protection of human rights and the grim reality on the ground. Although Article 17 of the Turkish Constitution bans torture, the State Department found that in May 2019 alone, as many as 100 persons – including former members of the Turkish Foreign Ministry – were tortured or otherwise mistreated while in police custody. According to the testimonies of victims interviewed by the Ankara Bar Association, “authorities blindfolded them and made them kneel, dragged them across a room, hit them on the head and body with a baton, and threatened that unless they ‘talked,’ batons would be inserted into their rectums.”
The report also shows that the backsliding in Turkey’s democracy and human rights continues to affect Kurdish citizens disproportionally. Since the abortive 2016 coup that led Erdogan to declare a state of emergency, at least 4,920 members of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have been imprisoned on baseless charges related to terrorism and political speech, including former HDP co-chair and former presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtas, seven lawmakers, and 48 mayors. Ankara lifted the state of emergency in 2018, but Ankara continues to persecute pro-Kurdish politicians. As of December 2019, the Interior Ministry has suspended 28 HDP mayors in Kurdish-majority provinces, replacing them with government-appointed “trustees.”
The Turkish government’s reliance on arbitrary detention, show trials, and pretrial detention as a form of summary punishment continues to draw criticism at home and abroad. Since 2016, the Turkish government has detained 540,000 persons suspected of involvement in the coup, with 30,000 convicted and 70,000 currently awaiting trial. These politicized detentions and prosecutions constitute a de facto purge of Erdogan’s political opponents, both real and imagined.
In response to growing criticism of this breakdown in the rule of law and due process, the Turkish government introduced a Judicial Reform Strategy last May and passed judicial reform legislation in October. The International Commission of Jurists declared the measures to be insufficient, warning that “any judicial reform will be meaningless if implemented in the context of a judiciary which has been taken control of by the executive,” alluding to Erdogan’s iron grip on Turkey’s courts.
During remarks previewing the State Department’s new report, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo named China, Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela as among the worst violators but chose not to highlight Turkey’s abuses. This represents a missed opportunity to raise awareness about how a NATO member state’s persistent abuses are undermining the shared values on which the alliance rests. Washington should condemn Ankara for its egregious human rights violations and start issuing Global Magnitsky sanctions against the architects and perpetrators of arbitrary killings, forced disappearances, or systematic torture in Turkey.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where
*Philip Kowalski is a research associate. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP) and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Aykan, Philip, CMPP, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and Philip on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @philip_kowalski. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Goodbye to the Old Israeli Left
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 18/2020
Who can imagine Israel without a left? Israel was founded by the Labor Party (Mapai at the time). For three decades, it held power alone. The state’s most prominent figures came from labor-left backgrounds: Ben-Gurion, Golda Meir, Rabin, Allon, Dayan, Peres…
This has all become history. In the preceding elections, the two leftist parties, Labor and Meretz, won three seats each. The alliance itself was established to avoid the scandal of neither of them garnering 3.25 percent of the vote, the threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
Where does the problem lie?
There is, first of all, a lethal crisis of adaptation: Labor, like Mapai before it, is more nationalist than socialist; it was concerned with establishing a state. It did not advocate a bare minimum of the socialism it claims to uphold, equality between Jews and Arabs. Human and citizens’ rights were not on its agenda. Furthermore, it is the party that introduced settlements after 67. As the old world of Ashkenazi workers was shrinking, the party stuck to its nationalist socialism and never transformed into a civil oriented left. The numbers of those who belonged to the Kibbutz, its traditional base, contracted, and the Hisdarut and its worker’s councils dwindled. The strategy of its present leader, Amir Pertez, a syndicalist of Moroccan origin, winning over the “poor” and the Sephardim in the cities’ suburbs, has failed repeatedly. Most of them voted for Likud.
The party seems very old fashioned, ravaged by the global shift to the right which took place in several European countries. This shift fed on demographic changes: The Israelis became more traditional, partly because of the increased intermingling between the Mizrahi Sephardim and Ashkenazim. The secularism of the Ashkenazi left seems to provoke many. This is especially the case with Meretz, which was established in 1992 and upholds more progressive principles than Labor regarding the status of Arabs, rights, and freedoms. However, its appeal remained limited to the young elites of Tel Aviv, never becoming a party of the liberal left of national scale.
Netanyahu is the left’s second killer.On the one hand, there is his systematic McCarthyist campaign to tie leftism with treason. Even Lieberman, his former defense minister turned opponent, was once accused of being a leftist. His new rival Benny Gantz is also leftist collaborating with terrorists. More importantly, his policies and personality dyed Israeli politics at large with populism. Choosing an alternative program is not his opponents’ priority any longer; instead, they vote for any candidate whom they believe can remove him from power. Thus, an increased number of leftists voted for “centrist” parties.
This has precedents; leftists voted for Kadima, which had been established by Sharon and Olmert and was a political player between 2005 and 2015. They also voted for There is a Future (YeshAtid), a “centrist” party that seeks to represent the secular middle class. In 2009, they voted for the former foreign minister Tzipi Livni for the same reason, and, the Labor Party, led by Ehud Barak at the time, thereby failed to win more than 13 seats and Meretz three seats. This is happening now with Blue and White, which won majority of votes of the middle class in traditionally labor constituencies.
The third killer is occupation and the peace deal and, by extension, Israel’s relationship with its Arab citizens. While Rabin’s murder in 1995 did not prevent the election of Barak, who benefited from Arabs’ large turnout, in 1999, the failure of Camp David in 2000 and the intensification of mutual hatred terminated the Oslo Process. The violence of the second intifada and the Barak’s more violent response broke the link between Labor and the Arabs. For their part,some leftists tilted rightwards because of security concerns, complying with Albert Camus’ famous phrase about the Algerian War: “Between my mother and justice, I choose my mother.” The pro-peace camp with a leftist backbone withered away. Its theory was: Our withdrawal from the occupied territories will end the wars. The 2000 experience in Lebanon did not support this theory. The Israelis withdrew, but the Hezbollah’s resistance, supported by Iran and Syria, persisted.
Israel’s treatment of its Arab citizens was also a reason for the divorce: they are not represented in Labor leadership, nor are they given positions in the state when Labor is in power. More generally, while their living conditions are better than those of Arabs in neighboring countries, they are worse than those of Jewish Israelis.
As the issue of identity became increasingly prominent, Arab Israelis’ desire for their own separate representation, independent and united, heightened. Their situation in Israel calls for this, as does Israel’s social and political fabric, reflected electorally by its extreme proportional representation system.
Consequently, after a longstanding tradition of not turning out strongly, Arab turnout grew in support of the “Joint Arab List” (four parties). The “List” won 15 seats in the last election, the highest number ever attained by Arab parties in their history and the history of elections in Israel. The number of those who voted for the List increased from 337 thousand last April to 577 thousand this March, with the turnout rate going from 49 percent to 65 percent. 30 thousand Jewish voters who traditionally vote for leftist Jewish parties also voted for them.
The Joint List is not, as Netanyahu claims, a project supportive of war or terrorism. On the contrary, it aims to foster civil peace and make it more just and sustainable through furthering integration by giving Arabs a bigger say in the decision making.
Netanyahu is worried that this opportunity may be capitalized on, for this would open the door for other policies that may traverse the old parties and partisanships.

Fear of the Coronavirus Comes to Rescue the Gun Industry

Francis Wilkinson/Bloomberg/March 18/2020
The National Rifle Association, which traffics in hysteria to juice both its membership ranks and gun sales, has actually done the right thing when confronted by a genuine threat: Citing the coronavirus, the NRA canceled its annual convention, which was scheduled for next month in Nashville, Tennessee.
Many NRA members are older and likely more vulnerable to the virus. Still, the decision is bound to be unpopular with the sorts of NRA members who are behind the hairpin curves in right-wing talking points about the pandemic, which have had a bumpy tour of duty.
There is always a silver lining in disaster for the gun industry. Paranoia stemming from Covid-19 appears to be easing the “Trump slump” in gun sales just as the economy at large falls off a viral cliff, with Goldman Sachs projecting negative 5% growth in the second quarter and others contending it will be far worse. Some Americans are rushing grocery stores, for reasons that are simultaneously comprehensible and nonsensical: There is no shortage of food, food distributors, food manufacturers, grocery stores, plants or animals.
While food flies off shelves, others with a survivalist bent pursue a mad quest for firearms. Background checks on gun purchases have risen this year, and there have been reports of the pandemic increasing demand for firearms and ammunition.
Like the panic over food supplies, the rush for guns is at once understandable and bonkers. One first-time buyer of a semi-automatic rifle and a semi-automatic pistol told the New York Times that he “fears that the virus could lead to a breakdown of public order, with looting and robberies and ‘everything shutting down, like in a zombie movie.’”
As it happens, NRA leader Wayne LaPierre, in a zombie-influenced speech delivered 6 years ago, offered an eerie premonition of the apocalypse, citing “vicious waves of chemicals or disease that could collapse a society” among the many reasons why every American needs a semi-automatic arsenal.
That arsenal does not come cheap, of course. Prices of AR-15 models run from several hundred to a couple thousand dollars. With the economy under enormous strain, and restaurants and stores shutting down around the nation, unemployment is sure to spike. It seems likely that some of the same consumers lining up for expensive guns this week — there were lines outside some gun shops — may be lining up for benefits in the weeks ahead.
In other words, spending money on a semi-automatic rifle at a time when disease is ascendant and economic activity is plummeting may not be an example of homo economicus at his most rational. That’s especially true given that government first responders, including police officers and other law enforcement agents, along with members of the armed forces, are precisely the employees most likely to remain on the payroll, and on the job.
Of course, the gun industry has many accomplices in fomenting hysteria. The infrastructure of right-wing propaganda is vast and varied, reaching millions of people through social media, podcasts, radio, YouTube and Fox News (not to mention Russian television and bots). As the disease becomes more visible in society, and the recent “hoax” propaganda about it is conveniently forgotten, there will be many opportunities to exploit the pandemic for financial and political gain. The lines outside guns stores suggest there will be no shortage of marks either.

Conspiracy Theories in a Time of Virus
Daniel Pipes/Washington Times/March 18/2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19280/conspiracy-theories-in-a-time-of-virus
[W.T. title: "Conspiracy theories unwisely surface in a time of the Wuhan coronavirus"]
Suddenly, influential voices blame the COVID-19 virus not on Communist China but on the United Kingdom, the United States and Israel. This shift fits a pernicious medieval pattern that needs to be taken seriously and refuted.
That pattern goes back to about 1100 A.D. and the Crusaders in Europe. Since then, confused folk hoping to make sense of unexpected and malign developments have the permanent option of conjuring up a world conspiracy. When they do, they overwhelmingly blame just two alleged conspirators: members of Western secret societies or Jews.
"Massacre of the Jews of Metz during the First Crusade" in 1096, by Auguste Migette (1802-84).
Secret societies include the Knights Templar, Freemasons, Jesuits, Illuminati, Jacobins, and the Trilateral Commission. Jews are supposedly ruled by a shadowy authority, the "Elders," that strictly keeps them in line through such front organizations as the Sanhedrin, the Alliance Israélite Universelle, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Princess Diana.
In modern times, conspiracy theorists have added countries to the organizations: secret societies spawned the United Kingdom and the United States, Jewish Elders became Israel. Invariably, this trio of states is blamed for shocking surprises such as the JFK assassination, Princess Diana's death, 9/11, or the Great Recession.
And so it is with COVID-19. The virus demonstrably originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, perhaps at a "wet market" with live animals awaiting human consumption, perhaps at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or perhaps a mix of the two (infected animals from the institute sold for food at the market). That the Communist Party of China (CPC) went to extreme lengths to cover up the virus both facilitated its growth and then obscured its source.
But what happened next is known to nearly every sentient person alive today: the virus spread from Wuhan to other parts of China, thence to the world. Everyone reading this has lived through and experienced that recent history; no mystery surrounds the CPC's unique responsibility for the pandemic. Wuhan virus is not a racist slur but an accurate description.
Blaming only Britons, Americans, and Jews implies ignoring the other 94 percent of humanity: continental Europe's great powers (France, Germany, Russia); totalitarian movements (communist, fascist, Islamist); members of universalist religions (Buddhists, Christians, Muslims); and the entire non-Western world (Iran, China, Japan). Specifically, Communist China does not rate as a plausible conspirator.
And so, as the inevitable conspiracy theories emerged, they focus on the three eternal suspects. Not surprisingly, the CPC encourages these; foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao tweeted that "It might be [the] US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan" and he retweeted "very much important" information about "Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US." As a result of his and other official endorsements, the Washington Post explains, "anti-American theories gained steam" in China to the point that Internet communications in China are "inundated by the theory ... that the coronavirus originated in the United States."
Likewise, Russian media accused London and Washington of developing the virus either to harm China by undermining its economy or to prepare for offensive action by testing its biological weapon defenses.
Two of Iran's Revolutionary Guards generals raised the specter of the virus as an American biological weapons aimed at China and Iran, while Iranian state media repeatedly blamed the virus on U.S. or Zionist elements. Algerian and Turkish media accused Jews of developing the coronavirus to gain power, render peoples infertile, or make a fortune selling the antidote.
In the United States, notes the Anti-Defamation League, conspiracy theorists exploit COVID-19 "to advance their antisemitic theories that Jews are responsible for creating the virus, [and] are spreading it to increase their control over a decimated population, or they are profiting off it."
Indeed, that Israelis lead in the search for a COVID-19 cure is being twisted to confirm conspiracist cui bono suspicions of Israeli profiteering. That Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, a leading Iranian religious figure, initially permitted buying an Israeli vaccine if it were the only one available, then changed his mind, reveals the tortured thinking of antisemites everywhere.
The MIGAL Galilee Research Institute in Israel's far north stands at the forefront of finding a vaccine for COVID-19.
Thus has the Wuhan virus exhumed medieval themes in response to unexpected and malign news. However preposterous, these theories obstruct understanding the virus, dealing with it, and containing the damage. However tempting to ignore nutty conspiracy theories, they require refutation. Otherwise, they fester and grow and, as so often in the past – think Stalin and Hitler – threaten to do terrible damage.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes), president of the Middle East Forum, is the author of The Hidden Hand (1996) and Conspiracy (1997). © 2020 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
Mar. 17, 2020 addenda: (1) Good news: A U.S. State Department spokeswoman has stated that Secretary Mike Pompeo "conveyed strong U.S. objections to PRC efforts to shift blame for COVID-19 to the United States. The Secretary stressed that this is not the time to spread disinformation and outlandish rumors, but rather a time for all nations to come together to fight this common threat."
(2) Tracing the two lines of alleged conspirators, secret society and Jewish, is a central focus on my 1997 book, Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes and Where It Comes From.
The above text may be reposted, forwarded, or translated so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information about its author, date, place of publication, as well as the original URL.
You Might Like

EU mulls more refugee aid for Turkey despite resentment of Ankara's stance in border crisis

Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/March 18/2020
ISTANBUL-- In a stunning policy reversal, Turkey said it was closing the land border with Greece in line with demands from Europe, more than two weeks after Ankara’s decision to “open the gates” triggered a major crisis with the European Union.
The Turkish Interior Ministry said the border with Greece and Bulgaria would be closed as of midnight March 18 in the framework of Turkey’s fight against the coronavirus outbreak. The decision came a day after Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met via video conference about the refugee crisis with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
The video conference, organised after leaders decided to avoid a personal meeting because of the spread of the coronavirus, took place a week after Erdogan met with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel in Brussels.
The flurry of diplomatic activity was sparked by Erdogan’s decision February 28 to open Turkey’s land border with Greece. Tens of thousands of Syrians, Afghans and refugees from other countries went to the border to enter Greece but Greek border guards, backed by officers from the European border task force Frontex, blocked most migrants from entering Greece. Border troops have used tear gas, water cannon and plastic bullets in clashes with refugees.
New violence broke out in mid-March after about 500 migrants attempted to break down a border fence and enter Greece, the Associated Press reported. Greek police said they used tear gas to repel the push to break down the fence south of the Kastanies Border Crossing. They said Turkish authorities also fired tear gas at the Greek border. Turkish media reported that about 10,000 migrants are holding out in the hope of finding a way to cross the border but the Associated Press put their number at only 2,000.
Erdogan, whose country has taken in 3.6 million Syrians, has said Europe is not fulfilling its promises made under a 2016 pact signed to stem a flow of hundreds of thousands of Syrians via Turkey to Europe that shocked the European Union. Under the agreement Brussels said Turkey would receive $6.6 billion in return for preventing Syrians from crossing into the European Union, in an understanding that, in effect, paid Turkey for keeping the refugees within its borders.
By opening the border gates to Greece, Erdogan violated that deal, the European Union said. Speaking days after Erdogan’s decision, Merkel accused the Turkish president of playing politics “on the backs of refugees.” Other EU officials said Erdogan was trying to “blackmail” Europe. Erdogan countered by comparing the Greek border guards to “Nazis.”Merkel indicated after the video conference that Europe was willing to provide more money to Turkey despite anger over Erdogan’s behaviour. She said Europe was willing to talk about Ankara’s demand to extend an existing customs union between the European Union and Turkey. Gerald Knaus, co-founder of the European Stability Initiative think-tank in Berlin and one of the architects of the 2016 refugee agreement, said Turkey had lost many sympathies in the European Union by encouraging people to cross the border with Greece irregularly. However, Europe should not let itself be guided by indignation over Erdogan, Knaus said by telephone.
“It is good that Turkey stops to instrumentalise people at the border,” Knaus said, speaking after Ankara’s decision to close the border again. “Now the EU should table its offer of further support for refugees in Turkey.”
“No matter who is president in Ankara, the European Union has to acknowledge what Turkey has been doing hosting millions of refugees for years already,” Knaus said. “Both sides have an interest in renewing the cooperation” agreed in 2016 but Turkey had to end its “immoral game” of using desperate refugees to pressure the European Union, he added.
Knaus said the European Union should announce the payment of another $6.6 billion to make sure that integration and education programmes for Syrians in Turkey continued. “What we need is a mini-agreement to help the refugees as quickly as possible,” he said.
Other issues, such as Turkey’s demand that the European Union grant Turkish citizens visa-free travel in Europe, could be addressed in detailed negotiations in the coming months, because all borders are closed in any case because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The video conference did not produce decisions for Idlib. Merkel said Germany had already earmarked $137 million for humanitarian aid in the Syrian province. However, she and other Western leaders are reluctant to provide money for Erdogan’s plan to resettle up to 2 million Syrians from Turkey in a “safe zone” in a region of north-eastern Syria occupied by Turkish troops.
Knaus said that while the European Union was right to distance itself from any plan to change the demographic situation in the predominantly Kurdish north-east of Syria, the situation was different in Idlib because desperate people there had been displaced by fighting in other areas of Syria. “Cooperation with Turkey to provide humanitarian aid for people in Idlib is not the same as supporting resettlement plans for north-eastern Syria,” Knaus said.
*Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly contributor in Istanbul.

When this virus crisis ends, what will be the new normal?
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/March 18/2020
It is now evident that the coronavirus crisis we are enduring will not end soon. Statements from both US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggest that we are not looking at a breakthrough before summer.
Will this mean travel, schools, work and public gatherings in many countries will remain restricted until then? Very probably.
Can a preventive vaccine be found soon? On the one hand, we are dealing with a completely new virus; on the other hand, scientists and research facilities across the globe have never been as able to share data and test results as they are today.
A key factor, as emerged from Johnson’s crisis briefing, will be whether science can find a way to establish how many people in the world contracted the virus but remained asymptomatic and did not necessarily infect others. There are no indicators to where we are on this.
Different countries have reacted to the crisis in different ways. To judge by the relatively small number of people infected in Saudi Arabia, one cannot but praise its firm and fast response. Imagine the harm done, not just to the Kingdom but to the whole world, if the authorities had not immediately restricted access to the Two Holy Mosques? And followed that with Tuesday’s suspension of prayers at all mosques? It is instructive to compare the Saudi infection statistics with those in Iran, where irresponsible clerics actively encouraged pilgrims to continue visiting holy sites, contributing to an infection rate of more than 1,000 new cases a day. In the Kingdom, where all cases of COVID-19 (the disease the virus causes) came from abroad and infected their direct Saudi contacts, it was also wise to restrict incoming flights and monitor all passengers for symptoms. Closing restaurants and public gathering places was also an effective precautionary measure to ensure minimum contact between people.
The UK has taken a different approach. Schools remain open, most travel is restricted rather than banned, and those at risk — especially the elderly — are being urged to keep human contact to a minimum. There is much advice, but few instructions. The aim is to spread the outbreak over a longer period, into the summer — to “squash the sombrero,” in Boris Johnson’s memorable description of a graph showing a sudden surge in infections followed by an equally sudden fall.
If this strategy succeeds, then the UK will not only have saved its economy considerable losses, but it will also avoid overwhelming its already stretched National Health Service. It is, however, high risk. Not enough is known about this virus, how it spreads, and to whom, and there is a danger that without tough government action to restrict people’s movement and interactions, the number of cases will surge anyway.
Of course, humanity will survive this, just as it survived bubonic plague, Spanish Flu and other pandemics in the past. However, the difference now is that we live in a highly interconnected world, where travel has never been so frequent or so easy — and unlike us, a virus requires neither a passport nor travel documents to cross a border.
Nevertheless, this will end — but then what? The first thing to accept is that the world will never return to the way it was. Travel certainly won’t. Every time you’re asked to remove your shoes going through airport security, feel free to curse Richard Reid, the British terrorist who tried to detonate a shoe bomb on a flight from Paris to Miami in 2001. When your 300ml bottle of shampoo is confiscated, blame the 2006 transatlantic liquid bomb plotters.
At the very least, I expect health checks on travelers to now become standard, with passengers showing flu-like symptoms or fever being barred from boarding. I predict that face masks will also become a fixture on public transport and in congested areas.
It is instructive to compare the Saudi infection statistics with those in Iran, where irresponsible clerics actively encouraged pilgrims to continue visiting holy sites, contributing to an infection rate of more than 1,000 new cases a day.
We should also expect a transformation in working culture and business travel. The longer it takes governments and businesses to return to their offices, the quicker Working From Home (WFH) could change from being a temporary solution to a permanent fixture.
We are already witnessing a global decline in cinema and theater attendance, with the rise of much “safer” Netflix-style streaming services, and food delivery apps are beginning to replace eating out; again, the peak in demand may be a temporary response to the coronavirus outbreak, but changes in many consumer habits may also become permanent.
If there is one change that we should consider holding on to, it would definitely be the increase in awareness of the importance of personal hygiene, washing our hands, and using sanitizers. The virus outbreak has made us all much more aware of what we touch; I wrote this column on my phone, and I am now heading to the restroom to wash my hands — having just learned that phones carry 10 times more germs than a toilet seat!
*Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas

The threats facing our planet are interconnected
Amy Luers/Arab News/March 18/2020
In addition to costing human lives, this year’s unprecedentedly severe wildfire season in Australia destroyed an estimated 2,500 homes, killed hundreds of millions of animals, battered the economy, and placed severe pressure on the government. Coming on the heels of the country’s hottest and driest years on record, the fires highlighted the depth and complexity of the global challenges we face. Likewise, the COVID-19 outbreak, which started when a new coronavirus leapt from an animal to a human in China, now threatens to disrupt economic and social life around the world.
For much of the 20th century, we liked to think that every problem had a simple technological solution. Vaccines and antibiotics would keep us healthy, the Green Revolution would feed us, and economic growth would pay for our schools and hospitals. But today’s wildfires and epidemics demonstrate that the risks facing humanity are not so simple, and will not be managed by easy one-track solutions.
Consider the current global landscape. One million species are now at risk of extinction, the disastrous effects of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent, mass movements of people are becoming more common, and the world’s democracies are in the grips of partisan polarization and skepticism toward science and expertise. The big picture can be hard to discern from any one vantage point, which is why we need a new narrative that considers the challenges of today within the complexity of the entire planetary system. To that end, the international research organization Future Earth recently published “Our Future On Earth 2020,” which captures our evolving prospects by connecting the dots between recent research findings and the developments we are already experiencing — from floods and water shortages to rising populism. By drawing on insights from researchers in the physical and social sciences, the report helps to explain what is driving current events and how we might move in a more sustainable direction.
The report also surveyed 222 scientists across 52 countries to assess 30 categories of risk facing humanity and the planet. The top five risks identified by the respondents were extreme weather; the failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change; biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; food crises; and water shortages. These findings represented a meeting of minds: Leaders and decision-makers who were independently surveyed by the World Economic Forum in January identified the same risks as being the most urgent.
Scientists surveyed by Future Earth also stressed that they were most concerned with the linkages among the risk categories. There is every reason to expect that one global crisis could cascade into others. Heatwaves, for example, can accelerate water loss and food scarcity, just as biodiversity loss exacerbates climate change, and vice versa.
We need a new narrative that considers the challenges of today within the complexity of the entire planetary system.
Moreover, subtle links among all 30 risks cited in the survey could have major implications for future sustainability efforts. Consider the link between political populism and the spread of digital information and communication technology (ICT). These phenomena have grown together, with populist politicians using sophisticated digital marketing techniques to reach key voter cohorts. Worse, with disinformation and propaganda flowing freely through today’s largely unregulated social media networks, populists’ simplistic message of “us versus them” has been able to travel far and wide, while entrenched interests have been able to convince a significant share of the public to ignore the dangers of climate change.
But digital ICT also has the potential to do a great deal of good; from offering a megaphone to climate activists to helping companies reduce their emissions and empowering people to monitor and protect their local ecosystems. Looking ahead, those leading the “Big Tech” companies need to recognize that their business models should not be focused solely on their own bottom lines. Their powerful algorithms and platforms could be used to contribute to sustainable development.
With just a decade left to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, 2020 is a critical year. Hundreds of businesses and cities are making climate commitments and developing plans of action. At the UN Climate Change Conference this November, world leaders will try again to advance an agenda for reining in greenhouse gas emissions. And, in October, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity will set new biodiversity targets.
The Earth’s biodiversity is not just about lush Amazonian jungles and tourist-friendly African savannahs. Plant and animal species are key to our own survival, not least through their contributions to medicine and agriculture. To feed a growing global population, we will need increasingly productive, diverse crop systems that can cope with ever more extreme climate conditions.
For sustainability efforts to succeed, however, we must recognize that the challenges we face are interconnected. The risks we must address cannot be managed in isolation from one another or from other political and social dynamics. Solutions to today’s health, economic and environmental challenges demand a multidisciplinary, multilateral, systems-based approach. That will require rethinking and transforming our institutions, not to mention our own attitudes and lifestyles.
While Australia’s wildfire crisis raged far from most of us, it should be regarded globally with the same energy and focus as the coronavirus epidemic. No country, government, society, business or individual is an island. Ultimately, we are all facing the same threats, because we are all connected to one planet, with one future.
*Amy Luers, Executive Director of Future Earth, is a former Director of Climate at Skoll Global Threats Fund, Assistant Director of Climate Resilience and Information at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Senior Environmental Program Manager at Google. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.

Europe facing a perfect political and economic storm

Andrew Hammond/Arab News/March 18/2020
The EU closed its external borders on Tuesday, as France and Germany also announced separate measures to “lock down” the EU’s two largest economies. While the moves are time-limited for weeks initially, the continent could yet be facing extended economic and political turbulence, given its pre-existing fragility. First and foremost in the minds of EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the public health crisis and saving lives. The public health situation has deteriorated in both of the EU’s largest economies in recent days and, while not as grave as in Italy or Spain, there is real and mounting policymaker concern.
Take the example of France, where, as of Tuesday, there were more than 7,700 reported cases of coronavirus and a death toll of 175 (a rise of 48 in the 24 hours from Monday). Germany had more than 9,000 confirmed cases and 26 deaths. While not nearly as high as in Italy or Spain, Macron (and indeed Merkel too) is rightly concerned by the rate at which the number of infections and death toll is rising. This comes amid significant flouting of the rules already in place by some French citizens, including a ban on crowds of more than 100 and the closure of non-essential shops.
Most badly hit has been the Alsace region near Germany and greater Paris. On Tuesday, Macron asserted that France is “at war” with the virus and announced that the second round of local elections due to be held on March 22 would be postponed. Meanwhile, the police and army will strictly enforce the new restrictions, with so-far-unspecified “punishments” for those who break them. Hotels and other private businesses will, meanwhile, be requisitioned by the state in order to help treat sufferers of the virus.
With the World Health Organization saying last week that Europe had become the center of the coronavirus crisis, the political drama of the start of this week alone underlines what extraordinary times the continent is living through. In Spain (which started controls at its land borders at midnight on Monday), there have been more than 500 deaths, while Italy is at about 2,500 deaths.
The political drama of the start of this week alone underlines what extraordinary times the continent is living through
While the human cost must always be uppermost, the economic challenges are also huge and growing. This is why, after a videoconference call of about four-and-a-half hours, the EU’s 27 finance ministers issued a statement on Tuesday promising “a strong determination to do whatever it takes to restore confidence and support a rapid recovery” to tackle the crisis. These words were likely deliberately chosen to echo former European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi’s 2012 pledge to preserve the single currency, come what may, which proved a turning point in the euro zone crisis.
Yet, symbolic as Tuesday’s language was, the absence (so far at least) of an EU-wide stimulus plan is likely to disappoint markets, which believe many of continental Europe’s policymakers are significantly behind the curve. The problem, as ECB President Christine Lagarde knows only too well, is that the current crisis comes on top of the pre-existing weakness of the euro zone.
Some key economies, including Italy — the post-Brexit bloc’s third largest — are almost certainly now in recession. This would be Rome’s fourth in only about a decade, but it could also be true of the entire euro zone, which grew by just 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. This has led to growing speculation that the integrity of the euro zone is, once again, under threat.
To be sure, the risks are not the same as in the last crisis, which came the best part of a decade ago. The euro zone is unlikely to collapse because of failing banks, as was possible back then. But it may now be at significantly greater risk of failing politically amid a picture of even greater government volatility and uncertainty than in 2012.
There is not just a minority government in Spain and weak governance in Italy. This political instability is also reflected in France, where Macron has been weakened by a year of “yellow vest” protests, and Germany, where Merkel’s long period in power is approaching its end.
This is before one even considers the rise of right-wing populism in Eastern Europe. Indeed, while challenges to Brussels are often seen through the prism of Western European states — especially with Brexit — Poland and Hungary are also proving big thorns in the side of the EU, including through their leadership of the Visegrad Group of ex-Warsaw Pact states in what has been termed a potential east-west rift.
Taken overall, continental Europe could now be in the midst of a perfect political and economic storm. While the coronavirus is the immediate trigger, this pandemic’s shock comes on top of pre-existing instability and fragility across the continent, including in leading economies like Italy, Spain, France and Germany, which could tip the entire single currency area into a deep, sustained downturn.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Coronavirus prevention extremely difficult in refugee, IDP camps in Middle East
Mona Yacoubian/Al Arabiya/March 18/ 2020
As the world grapples with the dangerous and evolving coronavirus pandemic, the impact on the most vulnerable populations—the homeless, prison populations, and the impoverished—cannot be overestimated. In the Middle East, a region already ravaged by conflict and suffering from inadequate services and poor governance, the novel coronavirus could have untold consequences. Refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) in the region are among the most at risk. Mitigating the impacts of the coronavirus, technically known as COVID-19, on this population will be critical to stanching the spread of the pandemic.
A disproportionate number of the record 70.8 million forcibly displaced people reside in either the Middle East or Turkey. Lebanon hosts the largest number of refugees per capita in the world, followed by Jordan and Turkey. Meanwhile, Syria and Iraq must contend with large numbers of IDPs in fragile, highly unstable environments.
The intersection of a vulnerable displaced population with a crumbling public infrastructure is nowhere more apparent than in Lebanon which is contending with the coronavirus in the midst of a financial meltdown. On March 15, Lebanon declared a medical state of emergency amidst mounting concerns that the pandemic could overwhelm Lebanon’s faltering health system. Already, Lebanon had been coping with the impact of spiraling debt and a Eurobond default, thrusting growing numbers of Lebanese and refugees into poverty. Prior to the financial crisis, 73 percent of Syrian refugees in Lebanon lived below the poverty line. The situation of IDPs in Syria and Iraq is equally concerning. In Syria, which remains in the throes of conflict, IDPs are particularly vulnerable. The latest episode of mass displacement in Syria’s Idlib province—the largest displacement since the conflict began nine years ago—has already had a devastating impact. IDPs in northwest Syria are suffering from trauma, exposure, inadequate shelter and insufficient medical care. The spread of COVID-19 into these areas would be catastrophic. Moreover, the Syrian government continues to deny the existence of the virus in Syria despite evidence to the contrary, further endangering the population.
Iraq has taken a more proactive stance, instituting curfews, border closures and flight suspensions. Recently, a suspected case of the virus in an IDP camp in Ninewa governorate tested negative, however, the crowded and fragile setting of Iraq’s IDP camps would be conducive to the rapid spread of the virus.
Each of these situations—refugees in host communities, IDPs in an active warzone and IDPs in camp settings—entails challenges to mitigating the impact of the virus. These vulnerable populations—especially those in camp settings—often live in overcrowded environments with several family members in a tent or cramped apartment. Social distancing and self-quarantine—key components of the current COVID-19 mitigation strategy—are virtually impossible in such conditions. Access to clean, hot water is often spotty, which impedes effective handwashing, another critical element of protecting against the virus.
Refugees face similar challenges, but they are compounded by the perilous nature of living as non-citizens. Most Syrian refugees (more than 90 percent) live in and among host communities, not in camps. They intermingle with local populations, at times subjected to tensions from local residents. In Lebanon, refugees typically rent space in cities or rural areas while some live in informal tented settlements, hastily erected tents with limited access to basic utilities. Their legal status is precarious and their access to health care, or even to accurate information may be limited - conditions that may hinder them from getting tested or seeking medical care if they become ill. As Lebanon’s economic and health situation grows more dire, Syrian refugees may feel increasingly unsafe in the face of potentially rising local hostility. They will be even less inclined to self-report if they contract the virus, further accelerating its spread.
Addressing these challenges demands greater attention and resources from the World Health Organization, the UN Refugee Agency, and other UN and international agencies. Together, they should develop guidance on how to navigate the unique obstacles faced by displaced populations in the pandemic. Dedicated funding for test kits for these populations accompanied by an action plan for their deployment should be prioritized with a particular focus on how to reach refugees in host communities who are fearful of identifying themselves. Plans and resources for community-based, mobile testing and quarantining facilities should be part of the action plan. Similar funding and programming must be devoted to cash-strapped local municipalities to assist this frontline effort and ensure against further resentment building against refugees and IDPs.
Finally, a rigorous public awareness campaign underscoring the indiscriminate nature of the pandemic and the need to respond collectively, working as one - whether citizen, IDP, or refugee - will be essential. Only with a concerted effort to address the pandemic among vulnerable, displaced populations can the chain of transmission be broken.
*Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser at the US Institute of Peace where her work focuses on Syria. Prior to joining USIP, Ms. Yacoubian served as a Deputy Assistant Administrator in the Middle East bureau of the US Agency for International Development where she had responsibility for Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.

No time for trial and error, global governance must take action to stop COVID-19

Diana Galeeva/Al Arabiya/March 18/ 2020
On December 31, 2019, as excitement and hope at the prospect of a new decade was felt all over the world, the first case of pneumonia with an unknown cause, detected in Wuhan, China, was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Three days later, a US drone strike killed Iran’s top military commander General Qassem Soleimani. In the aftermath of this event, many were worried about the possibility of international conflict, and so the WHO’s declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30 attracted little attention.
Though mainstream news outlets reported daily on new cases of COVID-2019, a greater emphasis was placed on the social consequences of the events, as reports of racist abuse directed against Chinese people made headlines. At this time, world leaders did not seem to appreciate the severity of the nascent pandemic - international borders remained open and people continued to travel freely around the world, without medical testing.
Even by March 1 when, according to a WHO report, there were 87,137 confirmed cases worldwide; 79,968 in China, with 2,873 deaths; and 7,169 across 58 other countries, with 104 deaths; passengers arriving at London Heathrow were not tested for COVID-19.
This response to the disease was not unique to the UK. No world leaders were adequately prepared, and many miscalculated the probability of the virus spreading so quickly. Today, as Europe has become the epicenter of the pandemic, the challenges posed by the virus are increasing.
Following initial failures to recognize COVID-19 as an emerging pandemic, it seems world governments’ latest strategies continue to be limited. For example, on March 12, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the British public to prepare to ‘lose loved ones before their time,’ and the next day, the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser revealed that around 40 million people could be expected to contract the virus to develop ‘herd immunity.’
However on March 14, reports were revealed detailing the possible introduction of emergency laws to curb the outbreak, including banning public gatherings and giving police the power to detain infected people. Two days later, quite oppositely to his previous public address, Johnson warned the UK population to avoid non-essential contact by working from home, avoiding pubs and abandon non-essential travel plans. Such initial measures might illustrate unpreparedness and a lack of clear vision of how to deal with the coronavirus. Again, the UK is not alone in this; other states’ officials are facing similar challenges.
The main problem seems to be that state leaders are working alone through this pandemic. The French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion to his American counterpart US President Donald Trump that they discuss the virus during the upcoming G7 meetings in the US is relevant, but G7 is scheduled in June.
With transmission rates accelerating in many countries, and the number of deaths continuing to rise, June will be too late for initial discussions. Acknowledging this, G7 leaders conducted a conference call on coronavirus on March 16, making only recently initial steps for collaboration. It seems that as the challenges of COVID-19 increase on a daily basis, platforms for global governance are an increasingly important, but apparently neglected, resource in the effort to overcome them. For example, the United Nations was founded in 1945, in the wake of the Second World War, to prevent future conflicts of that scale. It is has been 75 years since the end of the war, and the world is again shaken by one catastrophe.
The United Nations is a platform capable of hosting an online conference of worldwide leaders, and of consolidating the information won in their countries’ efforts to combat the virus. It is now vital that they do so. There are lessons to be learned from those states that suffered the effects of the outbreak first. It may be time to establish a global program, drawing together multiple institutions of global governance, and scientific and medical bodies worldwide, in a consolidated effort to find a cure. The World Health Organization can organize international conferences, for example.
Likewise, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could cooperate with economic institutions worldwide to formalize strategies to mitigate the financial consequences of the pandemic.
We have seen in recent weeks the effects of false steps and delayed action. It has become clear that the time for trial and error is past. This outbreak is shaking the entire world, and only with global governance will we find a solution that protects us all.