LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.march18.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Curing the centurion’s Slave Miracle
Luke 07/01-10/: “After Jesus had finished all his sayings in the hearing of the people, he entered Capernaum. A centurion there had a slave whom he valued highly, and who was ill and close to death. When he heard about Jesus, he sent some Jewish elders to him, asking him to come and heal his slave. When they came to Jesus, they appealed to him earnestly, saying, ‘He is worthy of having you do this for him, for he loves our people, and it is he who built our synagogue for us. ’And Jesus went with them, but when he was not far from the house, the centurion sent friends to say to him, ‘Lord, do not trouble yourself, for I am not worthy to have you come under my roof; therefore I did not presume to come to you. But only speak the word, and let my servant be healed. For I also am a man set under authority, with soldiers under me; and I say to one, “Go”, and he goes, and to another, “Come”, and he comes, and to my slave, “Do this”, and the slave does it.’ When Jesus heard this he was amazed at him, and turning to the crowd that followed him, he said, ‘I tell you, not even in Israel have I found such faith.’When those who had been sent returned to the house, they found the slave in good health.”Titles For The Latest English

LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 17-18/2020
Judge in Lebanon Appeals Order to Release Amer Fakhoury
Lebanon military court orders Lebanese-American be released
Judge of Urgent Matters in Nabatieh orders 2-month travel ban against Fakhoury
Judge Khoury asks military tribunal to quash verdict ruling Amer Fakhoury's release
Amal Movement rejects Amer Fakhoury's release decision
Hasan: 120 Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon, Only 3 Not Traced
Report Says Fakhoury to Leave Lebanon despite Travel Ban on Him
Jumblat: Fakhoury's Release a 'Dose of Poison' for Presidency
Cabinet Sets Up Virus Fund, Diab Says Measures Result is Good
Wazni, ABL Agree on Opening Some Branches of Banks
Diab, Lazarini Discuss Help for Lebanon to Confront Coronavirus
Berri tackles general situation with Italian ambassador
Rahi meets Kubis
Diab chairs ministerial committee meeting on household solid waste
Abdel Samad quoting Diab after Cabinet session: Coronavirus tops our priorities
Shreim salutes every Lebanese who self-isolated, contributed to limiting virus spread
Finance Ministry creates donation accounts for the combat of coronavirus
Minister of Tourism: Closure of institutions and restaurants extended
Riots rock overcrowded Lebanon prisons over coronavirus fears/Al Jazeera/March17/2020
Coronavirus leads to drop in air pollution/Ryme Alhussayni/Annahar/March 17/2020
Hezbollah fears IMF conditions could reignite Lebanon’s uprising/David DaoudAl Arabiya/March 17/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 17-18/2020
Spanish forces linked to the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, as well as NATO training forces, are present in Besmaya.
Trump Changes Tone, Gets Real on Virus Threat
White House Seeks $850B Economic Stimulus amid Virus Crisis
France Vows 45 Billion Euros for Economic 'War' on Coronavirus
Spain Logs nearly 2,000 New Cases, as Infections Top 11,000
K's Queen Elizabeth cancels parties, heads to Windsor Castle over coronavirus
WHO urges Europe to take 'boldest' actions against COVID-19 epidemic
France could nationalize big companies if necessary: finance minister
All UEFA club and national team competitions 'on hold'
Euro 2020 championship postponed over coronavirus - UEFA
Iran reports 135 new virus deaths, raising total to 988
Saudi Halts Prayers in Mosques over Coronavirus
Rockets Hit Iraq Base Hosting Foreign Troops
Iraq President Names Adnan al-Zurfi as PM
Egypt, Ethiopia Step Up Diplomatic Efforts to Ensure International Support
Markets Need to See the Government Panic

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2020
Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability/Bradley Bowman/Behnam Ben Taleblu/FDD/March 17/2020
The United States is still too reliant on oil/Varsha Koduvayur/CNN Business/March 17/2020
China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2020
Coronavirus: Europe's 'Open Borders' System Faces Collapse/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2020
Iran sees global health, economic crises as an opportunity/Aluwaisheg/Arab News/March 17, 2020
Erdogan determined to achieve goals in Syria despite setbacks/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/March 17, 2020Abdel Aziz

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 17-18/2020
Judge in Lebanon Appeals Order to Release Amer Fakhoury
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 17 March, 2020
A Lebanese military judge Tuesday appealed a verdict by the military tribunal that ordered the release of Amer Fakhoury held since September on charges of working for the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army militia two decades ago, state-run National News Agency said. Judge Ghassan Khoury asked the Military Court of Appeals to strike down an earlier ruling in favor of Fakhoury and issue an arrest warrant against him. He asked that Fakhoury be put on trial again on charges of kidnapping, torturing and detaining Lebanese citizens as well as "killing and attempting to kill others," according to NNA. On Monday, Fakhoury was ordered released because more than 10 years had passed since he allegedly tortured prisoners at a jail run by the so-called South Lebanon Army. Some local media reported that Fakhoury was released but there was no official confirmation. Later on Tuesday, a judge of urgent matters in the southern town of Nabatiyeh issued a ruling preventing Fakhoury from leaving Lebanon for two months. Judge Ahmad Mezher's decision came after a request filed by former inmates. Fakhoury, 57, is a former SLA member who became a US citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire. His case has been closely followed in his home state of New Hampshire, where US Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other officials have called for imposing sanctions on Lebanon to pressure Beirut to release him. Tuesday's appeal came after an outcry in Lebanon over the verdict that ordered him released, including harsh criticism from by the Hezbollah party that said the verdict to release Fakhoury came after "American pressures and threats." Riots also broke out in one of the country's main prisons by detainees who demanded to be freed following the verdict against Fakhoury. Fakhoury has not been attending questioning sessions in Lebanon over the past few months after being hospitalized with stage 4 lymphoma cancer. Fakhoury has been jailed since Sept. 12 after returning to Lebanon on vacation to visit family. Lebanon's intelligence service said he confessed during questioning to being a warden at Khiam Prison, which was run by the SLA during Israel's 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon. Human rights groups have described the prison as a center for torture. Fakhoury's family and lawyer, however, say he had no direct contact with inmates and was never involved in any interrogation or torture.
Lebanon and Israel have been officially at war since Israel´s creation in 1948. Lebanon bans its citizens from traveling to Israel or having contact with Israelis. Fakhoury's lawyer and family say he fled Lebanon in 2001 through Israel and eventually to the United States because of death threats he and many other SLA members received for collaborating with Israel. In February, Fakhoury was charged by a military judge with the murder and torture of inmates at Khiam Prison. Hundreds of former Lebanese members of the SLA militia had fled to Israel, fearing reprisals if they remained in Lebanon. Others stayed and faced trial, receiving lenient sentences.

Lebanon military court orders Lebanese-American be released
Bassam Mroue/AP/March 17/2020
BEIRUT (AP) — A military tribunal in Beirut on Monday ordered the release of a Lebanese-American held in the country for nearly six months on charges of working for an Israeli-backed militia two decades ago, Lebanon’s state-run news agency said. Amer Fakhoury was ordered released because more than 10 years had passed since he allegedly tortured prisoners at a jail run by the so-called South Lebanon Army, the National News Agency said. Fakhoury, 57, is is a former SLA member who became a U.S. citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire. His case has been closely followed in his home state of New Hampshire, where U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other officials have called for imposing sanctions on Lebanon to pressure Beirut to release him. Fakhoury has not been attending questioning sessions in Lebanon over the past few months, after being hospitalized with stage 4 lymphoma. It was not immediately clear if he will be set free, as he’s facing another case filed by former prisoners who say they were tortured by him. Over the weekend, the Fakhoury family placed a sign on their restaurant’s door saying they anticipate reopening by early or mid-April, Seacoastonline.com reported. “We are excited to serve you again!” the sign read. The statement was attributed to Fakhoury and his wife, Micheline. Fakhoury has been jailed since Sept. 12 after returning to Lebanon on vacation to visit family. Lebanon’s intelligence service said he confessed during questioning to being a warden at Khiam Prison, which was run by the SLA during Israel’s 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon. Human rights groups have described the prison as a center for torture. Fakhoury’s family and lawyer, however, say he had no direct contact with inmates and was never involved in any interrogation or torture.
Lebanon and Israel have been officially at war since Israel’s creation in 1948. Lebanon bans it citizens from traveling to Israel or having contact with Israelis. His lawyer and family say he fled Lebanon in 2001 through Israel and eventually to the United States because of death threats he and many other SLA members received after Israel ended its occupation of Lebanon in 2000. In February, Fakhoury was charged by a military investigative judge with the murder and torture of inmates at Khiam Prison. Hundreds of former Lebanese members of the SLA militia had fled to Israel, fearing reprisals if they remained in Lebanon. Others stayed and faced trial, receiving lenient sentences.
*Associated Press writer Kathy McCormack contributed from Concord, N.H.

Judge of Urgent Matters in Nabatieh orders 2-month travel ban against Fakhoury
NNA/March 17/2020
Judge of Urgent Matters in Nabatiyeh, Ahmed Mezher, issued a judicial decision today, which forbids Israeli collaborator Amer Al-Fakhoury from traveling outside the Lebanese territory by air, sea, or land for a period of two months.

Judge Khoury asks military tribunal to quash verdict ruling Amer Fakhoury's release
NNA/March 17/2020
State commissioner to the military tribunal, Judge Ghassan Khoury, has asked the cassation court to quash the verdict ruling the release of Amer Fakhoury, former head of the Israeli enemy-linked prison of Khiam, National News Agency correspondent reported on Tuesday.
Judge Khoury also requested an arrest warrant against Fakhoury, in addition to his retrial for charges of torture, kidnapping and killing of scores of Lebanese citizens in Khiam jail.

Amal Movement rejects Amer Fakhoury's release decision
NNA/March 17/2020
Amal Movement sternly rejected the military tribunal's verdict to release collaborator Amer Fakhoury, vowing to stand in the face of the decision. "The release of Fakhoury is a decision we reject, and we shall face it -- just like the entire Lebanese people -- as it does not resemble Lebanon," Amal said in a statement.

Hasan: 120 Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon, Only 3 Not Traced
Naharnet/March 17/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced Monday evening that Lebanon’s coronavirus infections tally now stands at 120, noting that only three cases have not been traced to a source. In an interview on LBCI TV, the minister added that eighty percent of the 120 infected people “do not have symptoms.”“The virus has spread in a limited manner in some Lebanese regions and this reflects people’s awareness,” Hasan said. Noting that it is still early to take a decision on ending the academic year, the minister said the country is “facing a tough test” but “will succeed in managing the coronavirus crisis.”Lebanon went into lockdown Monday after the government announced a two-week state of “general mobilization” over the crisis and ordered the closure of public and private institutions as well as the country’s airport and land and sea ports of entry. Out of the 120 infected people, only three have so far died.

Report Says Fakhoury to Leave Lebanon despite Travel Ban on Him
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 17/2020
A Lebanese military judge Tuesday appealed a verdict by the military tribunal that ordered the release of a Lebanese-American held since September on charges of working for the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army militia two decades ago, state-run National News Agency said.
Judge Ghassan Khoury asked the Military Court of Appeals to strike down an earlier ruling in favor of Amer Fakhoury and issue an arrest warrant against him. He asked that Fakhoury be put on trial again on charges of kidnapping, torturing and detaining Lebanese citizens as well as "killing and attempting to kill others," according to NNA. On Monday, Fakhoury was ordered released because more than 10 years had passed since he allegedly tortured prisoners at a jail run by the SLA. Some local media reported that Fakhoury was released but there was no official confirmation.
Later on Tuesday, a judge of urgent matters in the southern town of Nabatiyeh issued a ruling preventing Fakhoury from leaving Lebanon for two months. Judge Ahmed Mezher's decision came after a request filed by former inmates. LBCI TV meanwhile reported that a private jet will arrive in Beirut from Athens before midnight to transfer Fakhoury. Fakhoury, 57, is a former SLA member who became a U.S. citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire. His case has been closely followed in his home state of New Hampshire, where U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other officials have called for imposing sanctions on Lebanon to pressure Beirut to release him. Tuesday's appeal came after an outcry in Lebanon over the verdict that ordered him released, including harsh criticism from Hizbullah, which said the verdict to release Fakhoury came after "American pressures and threats." "This is a sad day for Lebanon and justice," Hizbullah said in a statement adding that the reputation of Lebanon's judiciary was at stake. Riots also broke out in the country's main prison in Roumieh by detainees who demanded to be freed following the verdict against Fakhoury.
Fakhoury has not been attending questioning sessions in Lebanon over the past few months after being hospitalized with stage 4 lymphoma cancer. Over the weekend, the Fakhoury family placed a sign on their restaurant's door saying they anticipate reopening by early or mid-April, Seacoastonline.com reported. Fakhoury has been jailed since Sept. 12 after returning to Lebanon on vacation to visit family. Lebanon's intelligence services said he confessed during questioning to being a warden at Khiam Prison, which was run by the SLA during Israel's 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
Human rights groups have described the prison as a center for torture. Fakhoury's family and lawyer, however, say he had no direct contact with inmates and was never involved in any interrogation or torture.
Lebanon and Israel have been officially at war since Israel's creation in 1948. Lebanon bans its citizens from traveling to Israel or having contact with Israelis. Fakhoury's lawyer and family say he fled Lebanon in 2001 through Israel and eventually to the United States because of death threats he and many other SLA members received after Israel ended its occupation of Lebanon in 2000. In February, Fakhoury was charged by a military judge with the murder and torture of inmates at Khiam Prison. Hundreds of former Lebanese members of the SLA militia had fled to Israel, fearing reprisals if they remained in Lebanon. Others stayed and faced trial, receiving lenient sentences.

Jumblat: Fakhoury's Release a 'Dose of Poison' for Presidency
Naharnet/March 17/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Tuesday criticized the Military Court’s decision to release Lebanese-American national Amer Fakhoury, describing it as a “dose of poison for the Presidency.” “Amid the peak of the health and economic crises, the dual loyalty devil’s advocate at the center of decision-making finds an edict to release the collaborator Amer Fakhoury,” Jumblat tweeted. “What is the use of all the judicial appointments and the talk about the judiciary’s independence, with my appreciation for the head of the Higher Judicial Council and the judges who tried the collaborator. It is a dose of poison for the Presidency,” Jumblat added. A military judge on Tuesday appealed the verdict that ordered the release of Fakhoury, who had been held since September on charges of working for the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army militia two decades ago, state-run National News Agency said.
Judge Ghassan Khoury asked the Military Court of Appeals to strike down an earlier ruling in favor of Fakhoury and issue an arrest warrant against him. He asked that Fakhoury be put on trial again on charges of kidnapping, torturing and detaining Lebanese citizens as well as "killing and attempting to kill others," according to NNA. On Monday, Fakhoury was ordered released because more than 10 years had passed since he allegedly tortured prisoners at a jail run by the SLA. Some local media reported that Fakhoury was released but there was no official confirmation. A judge imposed a travel ban on him on Tuesday. Fakhoury, 57, is a former SLA member who became a U.S. citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire. His case has been closely followed in his home state of New Hampshire, where U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other officials have called for imposing sanctions on Lebanon to pressure Beirut to release him. Tuesday's appeal came after an outcry in Lebanon over the verdict that ordered him released, including harsh criticism from Hizbullah, which said the verdict to release Fakhoury came after "American pressures and threats."
Fakhoury has not been attending questioning sessions in Lebanon over the past few months after being hospitalized with stage 4 lymphoma cancer. Fakhoury has been jailed since Sept. 12 after returning to Lebanon on vacation to visit family. Lebanon's intelligence services said he confessed during questioning to being a warden at Khiam Prison, which was run by the SLA during Israel's 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.

Cabinet Sets Up Virus Fund, Diab Says Measures Result is Good
Naharnet/March 17/2020
The Cabinet on Tuesday agreed to set up a special fund for donations aimed at confronting coronavirus, as Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the outcome of the preventative measures has been good. “Crises cells will be created by municipalities and municipal unions to cater to people’s needs and the Economy Ministry will monitor prices for any hikes and will take the necessary measures,” Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad announced after a Cabinet session. “PM Hassan Diab stressed that the government is performing its duties as to protecting the Lebanese and is working to limit the spread of coronavirus,” Abdul Samad added. “He emphasized that the outcome of the measures has been good and that the general mobilization decision has been met with relief and response,” the minister went on to say. The Cabinet also approved an urgent bill aimed at pardoning convicts who finished their jail terms but are still in prison for failure to pay penalties. The government was expected to discuss monetary and economic matters during its session, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Tuesday. Ministerial sources told the daily that ministers would address the issue of Eurobonds after Lebanon's decision to default on their payment.
“Lebanon is negotiating with creditors and the feedback is turning positive,” said the sources, adding “it will have a positive impact on the government’s approach to restructure its debt.” Earlier in March, Lebanon suspended payment of $1.2 billion in loans, marking the crisis-hit country's first-ever default on its sovereign debt amid ongoing popular unrest. The default marked a new chapter in Lebanon's economic crisis and could have severe repercussions on country, risking legal action by lenders that could further aggravate and push Lebanon’s economy toward financial collapse.

Wazni, ABL Agree on Opening Some Branches of Banks
Naharnet/March 17/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni and the Association of Banks on Tuesday agreed to keep some branches of banks open throughout Lebanon’s lockdown over the coronavirus crisis, following a series of statements and counter-statements. A statement issued by the Finance Ministry said the branches would open as of Wednesday and that an agreement was reached on “organizing work shifts and carrying out the necessary measures to facilitate banking services in order to cater to the needs of the people during these difficult and critical circumstances.”“Each bank will announce a list of the branches involved with the decision, in addition to the continuation of the Call Center services and securing cash via ATMs,” the statement said.“ABL has stressed its commitment to the Cabinet decision on general mobilization in addition to preserving the health of clients and employees,” it added. Banks will also abide by the decision on preventing crowding while providing essential banking services, the statement said.

Diab, Lazarini Discuss Help for Lebanon to Confront Coronavirus
Naharnet/March 17/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab held talks at the Grand Serail on Tuesday with United Nations Resident Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Lebanon Philip Lazarini. Talks between the two men focused on the work of the UN organizations in Lebanon and the existing coordination with various state institutions, in addition to the possibility of providing assistance to Lebanon to confront the coronavirus.

Berri tackles general situation with Italian ambassador
NNA/March 17/2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, met this Tuesday at his Ain Tineh residence with the new Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nicoletta Bombardier, with whom he discussed the general situation and the bilateral relations between the two countries.

Rahi meets Kubis
NNA/March 17/2020
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Rahi met Tuesday in Bkerki with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom he discussed the current general situation on the local and regional scenes, especially amid the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Kubis highlighted the necessity of mobilization at all levels to control the spread of the disease, stressing on the role of the government, the political sides and the international community. Rahi had earlier held talks with Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nicoletta Bombardiere.

Diab chairs ministerial committee meeting on household solid waste
NNA/March 17/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab chaired the meeting of the inter-ministerial committee in charge of the household solid waste dossier. Ministers of Interior Mohammad Fahmi, Environment Damianos Kattar, Public Works and Transportation Michel Najjar, and Industry Imad Hoballah attended the meeting. ---Grand Serail Press Office

Abdel Samad quoting Diab after Cabinet session: Coronavirus tops our priorities
NNA/March 17/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab highlighted that the recent coronavirus development tops our priorities, adding that the Government is carrying out its duties to protect the Lebanese without negligence, and working to limit the spread of this virus; and the results are so far positive.
He then mentioned that the feedback has also been positive towards the general mobilization decision made on Sunday, and stressed on the importance of following-up around the clock any development in this framework. Talks also touched on the Corona Committee’s work, its means to link it to the National Operation Room for Disaster Management at the Grand Serail, and the need to monitor the affairs of all Lebanese abroad and communicate with their respective families. A special fund for donations from Lebanese and non-Lebanese has been created in order to face the coronavirus, and the Government calls every person, whether in Lebanon or abroad, to contribute to this fund during these difficult times. The Minister of Public Health will also submit on Thursday a list of all public and private hospitals that are equipped to receive the diagnosed cases, as well as quarantine places, and the State will take in charge the patients who are not covered, and reiterates the importance that insurance companies bear their responsibilities in covering their clients. The Ministry of Health will equally establish a 24-hour shift schedule for doctors, dentists and pharmacies in each region. It has also been agreed upon to create crisis cells in all municipalities and municipal unions to secure the priorities in people's needs. In order to prevent some traders from taking advantage of this crisis, the Ministry of Economy will monitor price increases, take strict measures in this framework, and work on reducing the prices of sterilizers and disinfectants.
The Cabinet reminded that Lebanese will be affected by the current situation, especially the poor families, who work on a daily basis to secure their livelihood, as the country is going through an exceptional situation. Means to help those people have been examined.
An urgent draft law to exempt prisoners who have served their sentences in terms of the fine imposed on them has been agreed, as well as a draft law to postpone the legal, contractual, and judicial deadlines, from October 18 2019 until June 30 2020. In education, the Cabinet discussed distance learning, with the cooperation of the Ministries of Education, Telecommunications, and Information, through national TV (Tele Liban) and private television stations, in addition to adding Lebanese educational institutions websites on the white list for users of both mobile network companies and the Ministry of Telecommunications network. Finally, the Cabinet discussed the financial situation and the urgent draft law to organize and set exceptional and temporary controls on bank operations and services. -- Presidency of the Council of Ministers

Shreim salutes every Lebanese who self-isolated, contributed to limiting virus spread
NNA/March 17/2020
Minister of the Displaced, Ghada Shreim, tweeted: "Not all things are negative. There are many positive matters that we need to shed light on. The picture is clear: coronavirus infection rate in Lebanon is steady! Greetings to every Lebanese who stayed at home, and thus contributed to limiting the spread of the virus. Let us keep adhering to the procedures, and God willing we will soon rise victorious."

Finance Ministry creates donation accounts for the combat of coronavirus
NNA/March 17/2020
The Ministry of Finance has created donation accounts for the combat Coronavirus, in Lebanese pounds and in foreign currencies.

Minister of Tourism: Closure of institutions and restaurants extended
NNA/March 17/2020
The media office of Minister of Tourism, Ramzi Msharrafieh, announced in a statement that, in the wake of the recent decisions taken by the Council of Ministers at its meeting on Sunday, March 15, 2020 at Baabda Palace, it has been decided to extend the closure of institutions and restaurants until Sunday, March 29, 2020 inclusive. The decision highlighted the necessity of allowing delivery service, provided that it respects food safety procedures. Municipalities and unions were instructed not to take discretionary decisions, in contravention of the decisions issued by the competent authorities.

Riots rock overcrowded Lebanon prisons over coronavirus fears
Al Jazeera/March17/2020
Inmates in Lebanon's cramped prison facilities demand temporary release for fear of COVID-19 spreading among them.
Beirut, Lebanon - Riots erupted in at least two overcrowded Lebanese prisons as inmates demanded to be released over fears the country's growing coronavirus outbreak will spread rapidly among them.
Lebanon has so far confirmed 120 cases and three deaths from COVID-19, the novel coronavirus that has led to an unprecedented global shutdown. The total number of cases worldwide is nearing 200,000 with more than 7,600 deaths.
Lebanon announced a partial lockdown over the weekend with all nonessential businesses closed and streets emptying out, just like in many other countries hit by the pandemic.
Now, the country's prison population is asking to be released, even if for a temporary amount of time. Videos shared with Al Jazeera by a family member of an inmate, in addition to others circulated on social media, show prisoners in the Roumieh and Zahle jails, two of Lebanon's largest prisons, staging protests and chanting slogans demanding an amnesty.
Other videos showed them attempting to break down doors and setting fires, with black smoke filling a large cell.
At least two videos from Roumieh prison on Monday night show bloodied inmates bearing large wounds - one near the neck, another near the hip. In the video, inmates say the wounds are a result of live fire by security forces.
"Look at what the state is doing to us," men shout as they attempt to dress a wound on one of the inmates.
An Internal Security Forces (ISF) source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to comment on the matter, confirmed that two inmates had been wounded, but said rubber bullets had been deployed, rather than live fire.
"There was large-scale rioting, fires and breaking doors and destruction of equipment, a really big riot. So security forces intervened," the source told Al Jazeera, adding the situation was now "stable".
A family member of an inmate at the Zahle prison, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal, said an imprisoned relative had taken part in a protest and hunger strike that began on Monday, in order to demand an amnesty.
The family member said dozens of inmates were now on a hunger strike.
Years-old demands
Prisoners and their families in Lebanon have long demanded an amnesty law be passed to release thousands who were jailed for petty crimes including drug use and possession, in addition to alleged involvement with hardline groups.
Lebanon's political establishment has long promised an amnesty law would be endorsed, but successive governments have failed to come through, and prisons have witnessed recurring hunger strikes and riots by inmates. Prime Minister Hassan Diab's government has committed to endorsing such a bill, though it is unclear who exactly would be included.
"Their situation is really dire, there are people with medical conditions in there," the family member told Al Jazeera.
Despite the difficult conditions, the ISF source said precautions were being taken and "all our efforts are focused on protecting the prisons from coronavirus". Only one person from each inmate's family could now visit, the source said, and prisons are being regularly disinfected.
'Cramped and unsanitary'
Lebanon has long struggled with overcrowding at its detention centres, with about 10,000 inmates distributed among 25 prisons and 261 jails, most of which are very small, according to statistics gathered by the Beirut Bar Association last year.
More than 700 lawyers visited the country's prisons in December to assess conditions and found them cramped and unsanitary, according to a subsequent report.
In addition, hundreds of inmates have been held for long periods of time without being sentenced, while others served their time but were unable to leave because they could not pay fines.
Melhem Khalaf, the head of the Beirut Bar Association, told local publication The Legal Agenda on Tuesday the association secured the release of about 80 prisoners by paying their fines since late last year, while 120 such cases still remained.
The association also provided free legal aid to 180 detainees whose cases were stalled because they did not have lawyers, while 120 more still required help, Khalaf said.

Coronavirus leads to drop in air pollution
Ryme Alhussayni/Annahar/March 17/2020
As for Lebanon, satellites specialized in monitoring air pollution, and specifically NO2, displaced a decrease in gas emissions for an average of 30 days, from February 16th until March 17th.
BEIRUT: In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, people around the world bunkered down at home. Once busy streets turned empty and silent in the midst of a temporary shutdown of industrial activities. A drop in air travel. Falling demand for oil. These kind of disruptions had one startling result: a decline of greenhouse gas emissions. NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites, revealed images that show a decline in air pollution. The study measured the air’s concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a gas produced from combustion, primarily from cars, trucks, buses, power plants, and industrial sources. During the Chinese New Year holiday period, there are lower levels of NO2, as many businesses and factories close in celebration of Lunar New Year. However, between January and February 2020, NO2 levels were 10 to 30% lower than average, as per experts.
Lebanon imposes strict measures in response to coronavirus outbreak
According to NASA scientists, the reduction in NO2 pollution first appeared near Wuhan, then spread across the country, to eventually reaching Italy and some other countries as millions of people have been quarantined. As for Lebanon, satellites specialized in monitoring air pollution, and specifically NO2, displayed a decrease in gas emissions for an average of 30 days, from February 16th until March 17th. “We started noticing decreases in nitrogen dioxide levels and a decrease in its geographical area due to the countrywide closure and the limitation of movement, a good sign so far,” said George Mitri, Director of land and natural resources program at the Institute of the Environment at Balamand University. “The outbreak forced people to implement measures that should have been taken a long time ago; we should have declared an environmental emergency state so that we would at least redeem a climate balance,” Paul Abi Rached, President of Lebanon Ecomovement, told Annahar. Abi Rached argued that the time needed to overcome this crisis will ”remind people globally, that their lifestyle and their consumption is wrong.”"They will learn a lesson", he said. Lebanon had declared on Sunday a state of "public health emergency" to deal with the spread of the virus, as Lebanon has only a total of 12,555 beds, including 2,026 beds in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Schools have already shut down across the country, as well as movie theaters, gyms, and restaurants. As for Lebanon's airport, it will be shut down from March 18 until March 29.

Hezbollah fears IMF conditions could reignite Lebanon’s uprising
David DaoudAl Arabiya/March 17/2020
Slowly, but surely, Lebanon is heading toward inevitable economic collapse. Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s newly minted government has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help avert or forestall this crisis. Yet Diab’s ally Hezbollah has distanced itself from the prime minister. Though the group has deemed mere IMF advice acceptable, it is objecting to any “IMF guardianship” over Lebanon’s economy. One of Hezbollah‘s fears – even if not explicitly stated as such – is that IMF-imposed austerity measures would reignite the protest movement which it worked so hard to break, and plunge the country into chaos that would threaten the group’s growth. The Party of God thus wants Lebanon to achieve the bare minimum of stability, walking a careful balance between state paralysis and state prosperity.
Lebanon’s Economic Vulnerability
Hezbollah‘s fears aren’t entirely unfounded. Lebanon’s debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 150 percent, and is one of the world’s highest. The value of its national currency – the lira – has plunged from 1500 Lebanese lira to 2600 Lebanese lira against the US dollar. Banks are rationing dollars, setting increasingly stringent capital controls on withdrawals of the US currency. Lebanon’s international credit rating is on a downward trajectory, with its recent – and unprecedented – default on its $1.2 billion Eurobond payment moving the country’s credit ratings closer to junk bond status.
Judging from past experiences, like Greece and Egypt, in such conditions the IMF is likely to impose painful measures that would impact Lebanon’s populace – particularly the lower socio-economic classes – to steer the economy toward recovery. A likely scenario would include a mandatory budgetary deficit reduction, resulting in an increase in taxes, including hiking the value-added tax, cuts to public sector salaries, as well as pensions and welfare funds.
This would heighten Lebanon’s already-deteriorating employment rates and poverty levels, compounding its critical economic situation.
During the last week of November 2019, ten percent of companies had temporarily or permanently ceased operations, a third had reduced employee salaries by 40 percent, and more than 160,000 have lost their jobs, putting unemployment at 35 percent. According to Prime Minister Diab, 40 percent of Lebanese citizens would soon find themselves below the poverty line. Basic costs of living, like essential foodstuffs, have risen sharply due to the lira’s worsening exchange rate – a problem which would only be exacerbated if the IMF decides to float the Lebanese currency.
Under normal circumstances, the Lebanese might be willing to endure further hardship on the path to economic recovery. But the country is already beset by a public crisis of confidence in government, and Diab lacks the legitimacy to impose the necessary austerity conditions on the population.
There’s also no guarantee that these measures would even work. Lebanon has few avenues for recovery. Lacking a production sector, Lebanon has long been dependent on tourism and banking for revenue. But tourism – largely from Gulf states and Lebanese expatriates – has dried up, owing to a lack of real tourism infrastructure, chronic political instability, tensions with the Gulf, and the coronavirus pandemic. Lebanon’s banking sector has also lost its appeal, in light of US sanctions on Lebanese financial institutions cooperating with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s Calculus
Hezbollah is acutely aware of these factors, including Diab’s unpopularity, having foisted him – along with its allies Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement – as prime minister upon an unwilling Lebanese public in January. Such a government imposing restrictive measures, particularly impacting society’s poorer rungs, could replicate the conditions that caused Lebanon’s October 17 protests and reignite the waning uprising on a massive scale. This would bring about renewed paralysis, which could plausibly devolve into chaos and violence.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, is desperate for stability, and the last thing it needs is chaos or paralysis at home. The group is currently facing a very delicate situation, due to several regional and international factors. US sanctions on Hezbollah and its patron Iran have limited some of the group’s funding, and the strike that killed former Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani earlier this year put Tehran further on the defensive. Additional countries – including Latin American nations and the United Kingdom – are following the American lead on Hezbollah and restricting its activities. The group remains deeply entrenched in Syria – a situation that won’t change anytime soon, as evidenced by recent Turkish strikes in Idlib – and is spread thin across the region, particularly in Yemen and Iraq.
In fact, this fear that the paralysis brought on by the October 17 uprising would catalyze economic collapse and sow chaos is what motivated Hezbollah’s vociferous opposition to the protest movement. That’s why, despite claiming to be the party of the downtrodden, its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah refused to support the protests and banned his followers from joining them. “If our supporters go into the streets, they won’t leave, and this will last for months and years,” he said.
That’s also why, when the protests wouldn’t fade away, Hezbollah refused to join the uprising because it wanted the protests to quickly fade away. When the protesters stubbornly wouldn’t, the group began treating them as a threat to their own position in the Lebanese political system. Hezbollah alternated between propaganda, harassment, and even violence – even though, as a whole, they didn’t target the group, posed little risk of siphoning away its support base, or call for its disarmament.
When that failed, the group simply opted for pushing through the formation of a government, dropping several critical demands – including the return of Saad Hariri to the premiership, and its refusal of a purely technocratic government. After this hard-won struggle to install a government, the group is simply unwilling to run the risk of taking any action that could derail the cabinet’s activities or lead to its forced resignation.
Hezbollah doesn’t wish to see a prosperous Lebanon emerge. Such an outcome could create credible competitors to its state-within-a-state and the patronage system through which it attracts many Lebanese Shia. At the same time, it wants to avoid total paralysis, realizing this could precipitate the country’s economic collapse and widespread instability, which would stymie or reverse the group’s growth. Thus, the Party of God continues to walk a political tightrope to preserve stability at all costs.
*David Daoud is a research analyst on Lebanon and Hezbollah at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). Follow him at @Davidadaoud

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 17-18/2020
Spanish forces linked to the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, as well as NATO training forces, are present in Besmaya.
The last week has seen a renewed spike in rockets hitting Iraqi bases hosting foreign forces, with three coalition troops killed on March 11 in a similar attack on the Taji airbase, which was hit again on March 14.  Since late October, there have been 24 rocket attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad or bases where foreign troops are deployed, killing a total of three American military personnel, one British soldier and one Iraqi soldier. No attacks have been claimed but Washington has blamed Kataeb Hezbollah, a hardline faction in the Hashed al-Shaabi -- a military network incorporated into the Iraqi state.
The US has long insisted Baghdad should do more to reign in such factions and prevent them from targeting American troops and diplomats. But Washington took a much tougher line in December after a US contractor was killed in a rocket attack, launching retaliatory air strikes against Kataeb Hezbollah. The faction's supporters then surrounded and briefly stormed the US embassy. Days later, Washington killed top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Hashed deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a drone strike on Baghdad. Outraged, Iran launched cruise missiles at the largest Iraqi base hosting US troops and the Iraqi parliament voted to oust all foreign forces from the country. The parliamentary vote has yet to be implemented by a government.

Trump Changes Tone, Gets Real on Virus Threat
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
He called on the country to come together. He warned of pain to come. And he deferred to the nation's public health experts while at least momentarily putting aside petty squabbling. After weeks of trying to play down the risk posed by the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump struck a new, more urgent tone Monday as he delivered a sobering message to Americans grappling with a new reality that will dramatically alter their lives for months to come. Trump's more somber tone came as he addressed the public at a White House briefing and made a direct appeal to all Americans to do their part to halt the pandemic's spread. Gone were Trump's "do as I say, not as I do" handshakes that had continued even after health experts admonished people to avoid contact and practice social distancing. Also gone was the rosy talk aimed, in part, at propping up reeling financial markets.
The shift was informed in part by a growing realization within the West Wing that the coronavirus crisis is an existential threat to Trump's presidency, endangering his reelection and his legacy. Trump has told advisers that he now believes the virus will be a significant general election issue and he took note of the clear-eyed, somber tone used by his likely general election foe, Joe Biden, in Sunday's Democratic debate. But by Tuesday, the president had returned to lashing out on Twitter at his critics.
With reports from Italy growing grimmer, U.S. cases surging and America's economy in shock, Trump has also received a series of alarming briefings in recent days that have included dire projections about how many Americans could be infected if drastic action isn't taken. He also has watched the dramatic escalation of precautions within the White House complex, where officials are now screening everyone who enters the building after Trump unknowingly interacted with at least three people who have since tested positive for the virus. Already, both his press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, and his outgoing acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, are isolating themselves at home after coming into direct or indirect contact with those who have COVID-19.
And so it was that on Monday, Trump matter-of-factly outlined the government's newest recommendations, including urging all older Americans and those with chronic health conditions to stay home. All Americans were advised to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people.
Trump repeatedly deferred to the public health professionals on stage with him to offer specifics and answer follow-up questions, and he acknowledged the disquieting reality that the economy may well be careening toward recession and that Americans' lives will likely be impacted for far longer than most people have even begun to process.
"If we do a really good job, people are talking about July, August, something like that," he told reporters who filled every other seat in the briefing room in an attempt to practice social distancing.
National crises are times of testing for presidents, and after days of shrinking from the urgency, Trump approached the moment with newfound gravity. For all of that, though, Trump was still Trump. He said he would award himself a 10-out-of-10 rating. And on Twitter, he was still needling a longtime political foe, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has called for a more assertive federal response.
On Tuesday, he added Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to that list after she criticized Trump for saying governors should work through their own supply chains to get ventilators and other needed medical equipment instead of relying on the federal government to get it for them.
"Failing Michigan Governor must work harder and be much more proactive," Trump tweeted Tuesday. "We are pushing her to get the job done. I stand with Michigan!"
He followed up minutes later with: "Federal Government is working very well with the Governors and State officials. Good things will happen! #KILLTHEVIRUS." As recently as Saturday, Trump had said, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the country had "tremendous control" of the virus, even as cases soared, local governments were shutting down schools, and doctors were warning of an impending health catastrophe. He reframed that comment Monday, saying he'd been referring to his government's handling of the crisis and not the virus itself.
"It's not under control for any place in the world," he acknowledged. Trump for weeks had taken his upbeat cues from a network of outside advisers who told him the media and Democrats were hyping the threat. But he has also heard from allies who have urged him to bolster his response and change his tone, including some Republicans on Capitol Hill who feared they had been personally exposed to the virus.
Jared Kushner, the president's influential son-in-law and senior adviser, who has recently taken a more active role in the administration's response, has privately compared the virus to a "war" that could imperil the nation's economy and population, according to two White House officials and Republicans close to the West Wing who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private conversations. The pandemic's impact could rival that of World War II, he has said, requiring a national effort.
Trump, who has always viewed himself as his best spokesman, has also expressed frustration in recent weeks that Vice President Mike Pence, whom he appointed to lead the White House task force, has been too robotic when he speaks at White House briefings.
But while he often chides his press aides for failing to adequately defend him, Trump himself has stumbled in his recent public remarks. He immediately recognized that he had erred during his Oval Office address to the nation last week when he made several misstatements that later had to be corrected. And while the stock market soared during the Rose Garden address he delivered the following day to try to repair the damage, the White House again was forced to play cleanup when it turned out that some of the developments he'd announced had been dramatically overstated.
Trump had hoped the markets would rise again Monday after the Federal Reserve's announcement the previous day that it would slash interest rates, and he was rattled when they collapsed instead. Hoping to turn the tide, he told aides he wanted to speak at Monday's 3:30 p.m. press briefing — the same late afternoon time slot as Friday's Rose Garden news conference.
But this time, instead of a spike in the market, the Dow Jones continued to plummet as he spoke, dipped even further after the president admitted, for the first time, that the nation may be heading for a recession. While Trump's changes in tones are often fleeting, White House officials and allies saw Monday's more measured approach as evidence the president was coming to grips with the magnitude of the challenges ahead for the nation and his presidency. Americans — many struggling to work from home while juggling childcare, or facing job losses — needed to hear directly from their commander in chief exactly what they are in for, said Trump's former communication strategist Jason Miller. Still, few expected Trump's more measured approach to last or to erase past missteps. Said Princeton presidential historian Julian Zelizer: "I'm not sure a change in tone makes up for a kind of complete lack of leadership that the country has seen in the first few weeks of this crisis."

White House Seeks $850B Economic Stimulus amid Virus Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
The White House is proposing a roughly $850 billion economic rescue package Tuesday amid the coronavirus outbreak, a sweeping stimulus for businesses and taxpayers amid unseen since the Great Recession of 2008. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin planned to outline the package to Senate Republicans at a private lunch, with officials aiming to have Congress approve it this week.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, opening the Senate on Tuesday morning, promised swift action. "The Senate will not adjourn until we have passed significant and bold new steps above and beyond what the House has passed to help our strong nation and our strong underlying economy weather this storm," McConnell said. Bigger than the 2008 bank bailout or the 2009 recovery act, the White House proposal aims to provide relief for small businesses, $50 billion for the airline industry and include a massive tax cut for wage-earners.
Two people familiar with the request described it to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly. The White House hopes the measure will pass quickly, possibly this week, an enormous political undertaking as the administration scrambled to contain the economic fallout of the severe disruptions to American life from the outbreak. White House officials offered senators a preliminary briefing late Monday at the Capitol, saying they want the plan approved by Congress as soon as possible, suggesting in a matter of days. "ASAP," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said late Monday. "There's an urgency."
The rush to inject cash and resources into the economy is an effort unlike any since the 2008 economic crisis, with political and economic interventions and eye-popping sums to try to protect Americans from the health and financial fallout. "We've got a lot of work to do from here," Mnuchin told reporters late Monday. The new proposal is beyond the House 's estimated $100 billion aid package of sick pay, emergency food aid and free virus testing that was approved over the weekend and is pending before the Senate. Now Congress will be rushing to pass to two — a massive, sweeping response to the virus outbreak that is rewriting America's way of life.Muscling the aid will test Congress and the White House at a pivotal moment in the crisis and in an election year when the two parties have vastly different outlooks on the best way to prop up the economy and help Americans. Senate Democrats have proposed their own $750 billion package — boosting hospital capacity and unemployment checks for the suddenly jobless — with deep negotiations to come.
"We will need big, bold, urgent federal action to deal with this crisis," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Monday in announcing Democrats' plan. Schumer will meet with Senate Democrats on a conference call to outline their proposal. All sides — the House, Senate and White House — agree more federal resources are needed to handle what's coming. At the start of the month, Congress approved $8.3 billion in initial aid. Trump quickly signed into law the measure, which provided federal agencies money for vaccines, tests and potential treatments, and funding to help state and local governments respond to the threat.With an urgency unseen since the Great Recession, Congress is rushing to develop a sweeping economic lifeline for American households and businesses suddenly capsized by the coronavirus outbreak.
During the recession, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, passed in February of that year, had an initial price tag of $787 billion which was revised later to $831 billion. That was under Barack Obama. The Tarp passed in the fall of 2008 to help troubled banks had a pricetag of $700 billion. It was put together by the George W. Bush Administration, and provided money for the auto bailouts for General Motors and Chrysler and all of that money for the banks and the auto companies was paid back.
Now, Republicans often reluctant to spend federal dollars did not flinch at the head-spinning number, as a roster of America's big and small industries — airlines, hotels, retailers — lined up for aid.
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, called for sending $1,000 to every adult American. The president conveyed that lawmakers should "not be impeded by the price tag," said Eric Ueland, the White House legislative director. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he wants a "comprehensive" approach with "significant steps" for the economy, particularly Main Street businesses. He opened the Senate on Monday with a message to Americans: "The Senate stands with you."
The days ahead will test whether Congress can quickly respond to the crisis. Industries representing a broad swath of the economy are seeking help in withstanding the fallout as schools close and Americans are being told to stay inside, skip nonessential travel and avoid gatherings with 10 people or more. That means no dining out, no boarding planes, no shopping the malls as a great national shutdown sparks business closures, layoffs and lost paychecks for rents, mortgages and everyday needs. The nation's largest business organization, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, asked the Trump administration and Congress on Monday to act rapidly to help companies have access to cash and avert a "potentially devastating" hit to the economy.
The request from the U.S. airlines alone could easily top $50 billion, according to Airlines for America, the trade group representing the carriers. "We're going to back the airlines 100%," Trump said at a White House briefing. "We've told the airlines we're going to help them."
In a letter to Trump and congressional leaders, the Chamber of Commerce called for legislation including a three-month cancellation of the taxes companies pay to support Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance. "No family and no business should go bankrupt just because of the temporary disruption in income caused by the coronavirus," said the chamber's CEO, Thomas J. Donohue. The nation's governors were also calling on Congress to swiftly bring economic aid, particularly for the unemployment insurance system to help displaced workers, and fast. "We need a better response from the federal government," said Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, a Democrat. "I am out of patience."
Pulling together the new package will challenge the basic logistics of governing as Congress itself struggled to adapt to the new normal.
House Democrats were told on a conference call they won't be recalled to Washington until the next package is ready for action, according to people familiar with the call but unauthorized to discuss it and granted anonymity. The 100-member Senate convened for an evening vote — a potentially stunning sight in the new era of social distancing. While different authorities around the country have issued conflicting advice, the Trump administration said at a Monday news conference that Americans should not gather in groups of more than 10 people over the next 15 days.
The No. 2 Senate Democratic leader, Dick Durbin of Illinois, counting the number of senators on the floor, questioned what example they were setting. He urged swift passage of the House package. "What are we waiting for?" he asked. Despite Trump's robust support, a handful of Republicans said they wanted to make changes in the House-passed measure. "It doesn't go far enough," said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.
In addition, the National Federation of Independent Business, which counts hundreds of thousands of small-business members, initially opposed it. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The vast majority of people recover from the new virus. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.

France Vows 45 Billion Euros for Economic 'War' on Coronavirus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
France on Tuesday pledged tens of billions of euros in financial aid and mooted the nationalization of large companies to wage an "economic and financial war" on the coronavirus which has sent most of the country's workforce into lockdown. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced a 45-billion euro ($50-billion) aid package to help businesses and employees cope with the escalating health crisis and brace for a recession. "This war will require us to mobilize all our forces," the minister said, and warned the fight "will be lengthy, it will be violent." "I will not hesitate to use any means at my disposal to protect large French enterprises," added Le Maire -- citing capital injections, stake purchases, and even "nationalization if necessary." The government said France's national debt will exceed 100 percent of GDP this year, well above the European Union's guideline of no more than 60 percent.
And GDP will contract by an estimated one percent, a dramatic reversal on pre-virus projections of 1.3-percent growth for 2020. Budget Minister Gerald Darmanin told daily financial newspaper Les Echos the public deficit will likely grow to 3.9 percent of GDP. The government had hoped to shrink it to 2.2 percent. The economic hit of the coronavirus, which saw the government confine most residents to their homes starting Tuesday and closing all non-essential businesses, comes hot on the heels of a damaging public transport strike which lasted weeks and hurt the earnings of small businesses in particular.
Solidarity fund
Le Maire said the new aid package will include 32 billion euros for cancelled or deferred taxes and social charges of companies plunged into difficulty by the unprecedented health crisis. Paying the salaries of people forced to give up work under the containment measures will cost another 8.5 billion over two months. "If we put this much money on the table it is to aid (the economy) to restart quickly" once the outbreak recedes, said the minister. Several companies have already warned of tough times ahead. Air France said Monday it would slash flight capacity by 70-90 percent over the next two months and expected its financial situation to be "badly impacted". Carmakers Renault and PSA Peugeot-Citroen, and tiremaker Michelin have closed factories in France, and Airbus has suspended some production in Europe -- now the epicenter of the epidemic that started in China. For small- and micro-businesses and self-employed entrepreneurs, Le Maire said two billion euros would be set aside in a "solidarity fund" to help those that lose 70 percent of their turnover between March 2019 and March 2020. France's markets regulator on Tuesday banned short-selling in 92 stocks for the day in a bid to tame the fierce volatility on financial markets as nervous investors try to assess the virus' economic toll. Targeted were stocks that were especially hard hit when a global sell-off saw Wall Street plunge nearly 13 percent on Monday. Short-selling involves borrowing shares to sell them, effectively betting their price will fall so they can be bought back cheaper, allowing the investor to pocket the difference. The practice can put immense downward pressure on prices at times when buyer interest is virtually non-existent.
Le Maire said he was prepared to impose a short-selling ban of up to a month if necessary.

Spain Logs nearly 2,000 New Cases, as Infections Top 11,000

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
Spain on Tuesday confirmed nearly 2,000 new cases of COVID-19, sending the total spiralling past 11,000, with 491 deaths, the health ministry said. Spain is the fourth worst-hit country in the world after China, Italy and Iran, with numbers rising rapidly despite an unprecedented national lockdown, with the government ordering its 46 million population to stay home. Over the past 24 hours, the number of people infected rose by 1,987, hiking the overall total to 11,178, the ministry's emergencies coordinator Fernando Simon said.
At the same time, the number of people who had recovered from the virus stood at 1,098, he said. But an update released by the ministry shortly afterwards revised down the figure to 1,028, giving a recovery rate of just over 9 percent. Madrid is by far the worst-hit area, accounting for 4,871 cases, or 43 percent of the total infections in Spain. It has also counted 355 deaths, fully 72.3 percent of the total number who have died in Spain since the start of the epidemic.

K's Queen Elizabeth cancels parties, heads to Windsor Castle over coronavirus
Reuters/March 17/2020
Britain’s Queen Elizabeth canceled her annual garden parties and will leave London for Windsor Castle earlier than planned because of the coronavirus outbreak, Buckingham Palace said on Tuesday. The 93-year-old monarch will carry out a number of small duties at Buckingham Palace in the next few days before she heads to Windsor, west of London, on Thursday - a week earlier than scheduled. She will remain there beyond the Easter period, the palace said. “In consultation with the Medical Household and government, a number of public events with large numbers of people due to have been attended by the queen, and other members of the royal family, in the coming months will be canceled or postponed,” the palace said in a statement. The decision comes a day after Britain ordered a shut down of social life. Among the canceled royal events will be the annual Maundy Service at Windsor next month and three garden parties that were to be staged at Buckingham Palace in May. Decisions on whether a planned state visit by the Emperor of Japan should go ahead will be made later.

WHO urges Europe to take 'boldest' actions against COVID-19 epidemic
Reuters/March 17/2020
Every country in Europe should be taking the “boldest” actions possible to try to halt or slow the epidemic of COVID-19 disease caused by the new coronavirus, the World Health Organization’s European director said on Tuesday.
Speaking after an online meeting of health ministry representatives from across the region, Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, said he was “very pleased” to see Britain stepping up its recommendations for social distancing, and urged all countries to work together and learn from each other.
“Europe is the epicenter of the first pandemic of coronavirus and every country, with no exceptions, needs to take their boldest actions to stop or slow the virus spread,” Kluge said during an online news briefing for media. Britain toughened its approach to the outbreak on Monday with moves to close down social life in the world’s fifth largest economy and advice to those over 70 with underlying health problems that they should self-isolate. Italy, Spain, France, Germany and others have imposed severe lockdowns. “These are unprecedented times,” Kluge said. “It is important that countries work together, learn from each other and harmonize the efforts.” Kluge, whose WHO regional office covers 53 countries from Iceland to Uzbekistan, noted that the COVID-19 outbreak is progressing at different speeds in different countries.
He said this was due to on demographics and other factors, and meant that, broadly, countries were able to be classified in one of four scenarios or states of the outbreak: One - no case; Two - first case; Three - first cluster; Four - first evidence of community transmission.
“Some of our member states are in scenario 2 and 3, many are in 3 and 4,” Kluge said. “The basic actions in each scenario are the same, but the emphasis changes depending on which transmission scenario a country is in.”Kluge added that experience of China and others shows that “when put in place quickly and effectively”, testing and contact tracing combined with social distancing measures and community mobilization “can prevent infections and save lives”. -

France could nationalize big companies if necessary: finance minister
Reuters/March 17/2020
The French government is prepared to use all means to support big companies suffering in financial market turmoil, including nationalization if necessary, the finance minister said on Tuesday. Bruno Le Maire’s remarks are the strongest indication yet that Paris is ready to pull out all the stops to steady the country’s biggest companies amid the turbulence unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic.“I won’t hesitate to use all means available to protect big French companies,” he said on a conference call with journalists. “That can be done by recapitalization, that can be done by taking a stake, I can even use the term nationalization if necessary,” Le Maire added, without saying which companies could be treated as a priority. Le Maire also welcomed a decision by France’s financial markets authority to ban short-selling during trading on Tuesday on 92 French stocks and said the measure could be extended up to a month if necessary. The ban includes some of France’s best known companies such as bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), carmaker Renault (RENA.PA), and airline Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), which have all suffered steep losses on equity markets in recent days.Earlier, Le Maire told RTL radio that the government was mobilizing 45 billion euros ($46 billion) in crisis measures to help companies stay afloat through the virus outbreak, consisting in large part of tax and payroll charge deferrals. Meanwhile, the government has also pledged to guarantee up to 300 billion euros in total of new loans to companies, which could reduce banks’ potential exposure to loan losses.Le Maire said the government would shortly present a budget bill to reflect the new economic reality created by the outbreak, and which would be based on a provisional forecast for a 1% contraction in gross domestic product this year.

All UEFA club and national team competitions 'on hold'

Reuters/March 17/2020
UEFA has put all club and national team competitions for men and women "on hold until further notice", European football's governing body said in a statement on Tuesday. The decision puts a halt to the current Champions League and Europa League matches. "The UEFA EURO 2020 play-off matches and international friendlies, scheduled for the end of March, will now be played in the international window at the start of June, subject to a review of the situation," said the body--

Euro 2020 championship postponed over coronavirus - UEFA

Reuters/March 17/2020
Football's 2020 European Championship has been postponed for a year as the world fights to contain the outbreak of the coronavirus, the Norwegian and Swedish FAs said on Tuesday. "Postponed until 11/6- 11/7 2021. Will get back to you after the meeting," Swedish FA chairman Karl-Erik Nilsson said in a message to Reuters during a UEFA videoconference call. The Norwegian FA tweeted the news from its official account. UEFA, who is yet to confirm the decision, was under pressure to push back the tournament to give suspended domestic leagues time to be completed. European soccer's governing body was holding a video conference with all 55 of its affiliated national football federations and representatives of clubs, leagues and players. The decision will go before UEFA's Executive Committee to be rubber-stamped later on Tuesday. It is the first time in the competition's history that the final stages have been postponed. The decision to put back the 24-team tournament follows football, like numerous other sports, being brought to a virtual standstill by the coronavirus outbreak.

Iran reports 135 new virus deaths, raising total to 988
AFP/March 17/2020
Iran announced on Tuesday another 135 deaths from the novel coronavirus, bringing the overall toll to 988 in one of the world's worst-hit countries. "Reports by more than 56 laboratories indicated that we have had 1,178 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in the past 24 hours," health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said in a televised news conference. "This brings the total number of confirmed cases to 16,169 as of today noon," he added. Jahanpour also said 5,389 people who were infected had been discharged from hospitals "with general good health".
The official reiterated calls for Iranians to stay at home during the outbreak and asked them to report possible symptoms on a ministry website. The website identifies the individual using their national identity number and asks if they have symptoms such as coughing or fever.-

Saudi Halts Prayers in Mosques over Coronavirus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
Saudi Arabia on Tuesday suspended prayers inside all its mosques except the holiest two sites in Islam as it steps up efforts to contain the new coronavirus, state media reported. Mosques will be temporarily shut for the five daily Islamic prayers as well as the weekly Friday prayers, the official Saudi Press Agency said, citing the council of senior scholars -- the kingdom's highest religious body. It said mosques would continue to issue the ritual call to prayer. The decision seeks to direct worshipers to pray at home but does not affect prayers in Mecca's Grand Mosque and the Prophet's Mosque in Medina, it added.
The announcement risks riling fringe hardliners, for whom religion trumps health considerations. Saudi Arabia has reported 171 coronavirus cases but no deaths so far. The Arab world's biggest economy has shut down cinemas, malls and restaurants, halted flights and suspended the year-round umrah pilgrimage in a bid to contain the deadly virus. More than 1,000 cases of the virus have been recorded so far across the six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Qatar, which has the GCC's highest toll of 442 cases but no deaths, on Tuesday ordered the indefinite closure of banks and all shops except pharmacies and food retailers. It has already shuttered mosques, banned the entry of non-citizens and ordered the closure of bars, cinemas and schools while suspending football matches and other sporting events. Authorities urged people not to leave home without urgent cause and to avoid all gatherings, but stopped short of the blanket lockdowns seen in Kuwait and Saudi. On Monday, Bahrain's health ministry said a woman had died from the coronavirus, the GCC's first death from the COVID-19 illness. The government there has said it will pay electricity bills on behalf of individuals and companies for three months starting April. In Jordan, where 36 cases of coronavirus have been recorded, authorities have asked people "not to leave their homes except in cases of absolute necessity." Only supermarkets, bakeries and pharmacies remain open, and the army has been deployed to help enforce the measures.

Rockets Hit Iraq Base Hosting Foreign Troops
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/2020
A pair of rockets hit an Iraqi base hosting US-led coalition and NATO troops, Iraq's military said Tuesday, the third attack on installations hosting foreign forces inside a week.  The rockets slammed into the Besmaya base south of Baghdad late Monday night, a statement by the military said, making no mention of casualties.

Iraq President Names Adnan al-Zurfi as PM
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 17 March, 2020
Iraqi President Barham Salih designated Adnan al-Zurfi, a former regional governor with little national political profile, as prime minister, tasked with forming a government within 30 days in a bid to overcome months of unrest and political deadlock. Zurfi, who served as governor of the predominantly Shiite Najaf province during the US occupation after the fall of Saddam Hussein, is head of the small Nasr parliamentary group of former prime minister Haidar al-Abadi. Lawmakers told Reuters that Salih had named Zurfi only after larger rival Shiite political parties failed to decide on a successor to Adel Abdul Mahdi, who resigned in November during mass unrest in which hundreds of people died. Iraqis have been protesting for months against an elite they accuse of depriving them of basic services such as power supplies or decent hospitals despite the country's oil wealth.
Zurfi, who lived in the United States as a refugee in the 1990s after fleeing Saddam, is seen as a comparatively secular figure in a country long dominated by sectarian parties. He now has to win the confidence of parliament for his new cabinet, a difficult task as major Iranian-backed groups objected to his nomination. "Zurfi will face tough resistance inside parliament and he will need a miracle to pass his government," a Shiite lawmaker told Reuters on condition of anonymity. If Zurfi can secure parliamentary approval for his cabinet, he would run the country until early elections can be held. He is the second politician Salih has tapped to try to form a government since Adel Mahdi announced his resignation. On Feb. 1, Salih named Mohammed Allawi as prime minister-designate, but he withdrew candidacy for the post a month later, accusing political parties of obstructing him.

Egypt, Ethiopia Step Up Diplomatic Efforts to Ensure International Support
Cairo - Mohammed Abdo Hasanein/Asharq Al Awsat/March 17/2020
The Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is witnessing a fierce competition over which country can garner more international support. Cairo and Addis Ababa began sending diplomatic envoys to various countries, following the stalled negotiations that took place under the auspices of the United States and the World Bank. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry begins an African tour Tuesday to deliver a message from President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to his African Counterparts. The tour will begin in Burundi and include: South Africa, Tanzania, Democratic Congo, South Sudan, Niger, and Rwanda. For its part, Addis Ababa pushed senior diplomatic delegations to Europe and Africa, a move that Shoukry described as "having no impact". The conflict escalated between the two countries after Ethiopia refused to attend a meeting in Washington, at the end of February, which was dedicated to conclude a final agreement regarding the rules for filling and operating the Dam. Ethiopia further announced its decision to fill the dam in July. Egypt responded by intensifying its diplomatic moves to ensure international support for its stance rejecting any “unilateral” measure that could alter its water share. Cairo reiterated the importance of reaching a solution that preserves the interests of all parties, by pressing Addis Ababa to sign the US-sponsored agreement and discouraging it from taking any unilateral action, which will have serious security implications, according to Shoukry. The FM stressed that his country relies on the Arab states' position that ensures its security, pointing out that EU countries are aware of the seriousness of Ethiopia’s intransigence in the negotiations which could result in rising tensions in the Horn of Africa.
Shoukry reiterated that his country’s position is fair and Egyptians deserve to reach results that protect their water interests. There are no direct communications between Egypt and Ethiopia since negotiations faltered, according to Shoukry, who confirmed Cairo is contacting its Arab partners and the US as the sponsor of the negotiations. Egyptian Ambassador Gamal Bayoumi told Asharq Al-Awsat that his country continues with its political movement, backed by the international law, to compel Ethiopia to honor its previous pledge in not harming Egypt’s water security.
Meanwhile, the Egyptian community in Washington organized a protest in front of the White House and the World Bank to urge the US administration along with the international community to exert more efforts to protect Egypt's water rights. Protesters presented a "comprehensive assessment" on the effects of GERD on Egypt, citing Egypt’s dry climate and water resources, 97 percent of which comes from the Nile River. Ethiopia says the construction of the dam, which costs about $4 billion, is necessary to supply the country with electricity. Addis Ababa also launched a series of diplomatic activities and visits to clarify its position on the negotiations. Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde held talks with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Nairobi. The two leaders discussed a wide range of bilateral and multilateral subjects including the challenges facing the Nile River basin. She also met with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni who reiterated the importance of ensuring the equitable and sustainable use of the River Nile waters. Museveni emphasized the need to urgently convene a summit of the Nile Basin Commission so that the Heads of State conduct discussions on the issue of the Nile. Over the past few days, Ethiopia began sending high-level delegations to different countries to inform them of its position on the Renaissance Dam. It also plans to send a high-level delegation to the United States and other countries for a similar mission.

Markets Need to See the Government Panic
Jim Bianco/Asharq Al Awsat/March 17/2020
It seems hard to believe but it was only 16 days ago that the US stock market was at record highs. It has since fallen more than 25%, marking the fastest time between a new high and a bear market in history. The old record was set in 1929, when it took 42 days over the course of September and October of that year to drop into a bear market. It is never good when the market is breaking a record set in 1929! Ironically, it’s a lack of panic over the expanding coronavirus pandemic that is driving the selloff. The declines are being compounded by government officials who still refer to Covid-19 as “just the flu.” More specifically, this is President Donald Trump’s problem, for he thinks this way and believes there has been a giant over-reaction. That attitude came across in his Oval Office address Wednesday night.
The problem is that the too many, including the government, have prioritized the economy and stock market over life. Hitting quarterly numbers are more important than slowing the rate of infections. The market collapse is a signal that this is the wrong approach and, if not reversed now, will end badly. In other words, to stop the rout in markets, start protecting the health care system and making sure it doesn’t get overwhelmed even though it likely means a painful economic stop in the developed world. Markets are pricing in this inevitability.
That starts with making sure there’s enough hospital beds to accommodate the sick. The US only has about 2.8 such beds per 1,000 people, according to Dr. Liz Specht, the Associate Director of Science & Technology at the Good Food Institute. About 65% of those beds are occupied at any given time. She goes on to explain that if the virus is allowed to continue to double every six days in the US, as it has other countries, the US will run out of available hospital beds to treat the truly sick, which amounts to about 10% to 15% of all infections, in May.
So, the market is saying that it is imperative that the government institutes protective measures to slow the spread enough that the health care system can handle what is sure to be an increased caseload. This means canceling mass gatherings such as sporting events, social distancing, travel and public transportation restrictions, as well as widespread business and school closures. Quarantines may also be necessary. One of the more underappreciated developments concerning China’s efforts to slow the growth in virus infections there to zero is that the harsh measures implemented caused tremendous economic, psychological, and emotional damage on the country. Even now, there is concern the virus has only been suppressed, and not eliminated, which is leading to reluctance to fully restart the economy. And even when that happens, China may be left with enough long-term damage that will make returning to a pre-virus economy tough to recapture. Economists are now debating about whether the shape of the looming US economic recession and recovery will look more like a “V,” “W,” “U,” or “L.” The betting now is on a “V,” which implies a short recession and rapid recovery. But if anger and a new call for the de-globalization of supply chains takes hold, that hoped for “V” could quickly become an “L.” This what the equity markets seem to be signaling with its rapid plunge. If hospitals become overrun and physicians are forced to decide who to save and who to let die, the outcry will be a “cultural of greed” that prioritized the economy and stock market over life. This will make investing a painful endeavor for years to come. If, however, everyone that needs a hospital bed gets one, then the lasting damage will be mitigated, and the market has a much better chance to recover to the old highs.
Although markets are clearly pricing both a decline corporate earnings and a contraction in gross domestic product, their real worry is long-term damage from a poorly constructed response that continues to place economics over life.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2020
Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Bradley Bowman/Behnam Ben Taleblu/FDD/March 17/2020
U.S. troops in Iraq were once again in the line of fire last week without sufficient capability to defend themselves. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, confirmed on Friday that U.S. troops at Camp Taji, Iraq, did not have a necessary system to intercept rockets during the March 11 attack by an Iran-backed militia that killed three coalition service members.
This fact highlights the clear vulnerability of deployed U.S. troops in Iraq to indirect fire. It also underscores the need to both deploy, without delay, existing defense capabilities and to expeditiously develop the next generation of indirect fire protection capability, or IFPC.
According to Gen. McKenzie, Kata’ib Hezbollah — an Iran-backed Shiite militia also known as KH that operates in both Iraq and Syria — attempted to launch 33 rockets at U.S. troops at Camp Taji last week. After three misfired, 30 were launched with roughly a third to half of them landing in Camp Taji — killing an American soldier and airman, as well as a British medic. McKenzie called the attack by the Iranian proxy a “large strike” with the “intent to produce a lot of casualties.”
To deter future attacks, the next day the U.S. struck five KH locations that McKenzie called “advanced conventional weapons storage units.” CENTCOM believes the facilities and any weapons they contained were “effectively destroyed.”
KH was placed on the U.S. State Department’s foreign terrorist organization list in 2009, making it the first Iran-backed Shiite militia in Iraq to be designated as an FTO. Both the organization and its leader are subject to U.S. terrorism sanctions.
During Friday’s press conference, McKenzie acknowledged that there was no counter-rocket, artillery, mortar system in place at Camp Taji to protect U.S. troops. McKenzie noted that the C-RAM system often focuses on protecting Patriot missile defense batteries from close-in threats, but acknowledged that C-RAM systems can also protect personnel from the kind of 107mm rockets used by KH.
Due to an insufficient supply of such systems, however, U.S. troops are deployed around the world in dangerous locations without such protection. In these instances, U.S. military personnel rely on advance warning of incoming fire to scramble to bunkers or other protective shelters. The fact that the demand for such systems exceeds supply requires the Pentagon and combatant commands to deploy them to the areas in most need of protection.
This broader dilemma was on display more than two months ago when Tehran launched a ballistic missile attack at U.S. troops on two different Iraqi bases. Instead of rockets, Tehran fired 16 short-range ballistic missiles in the Jan. 8 attack. Thankfully no Americans were killed, but dozens sustained injuries.
The Pentagon had decided to deploy its finite inventory of Patriot missile defense batteries to other locations deemed a higher priority. Consequently, U.S. military forces in Iraq lacked the means to intercept ballistic missiles.
Patriots can intercept ballistic missiles, but they cannot intercept 107mm rockets like C-RAM systems can. Nonetheless, McKenzie confirmed that the Pentagon is moving Patriots into Iraq, likely to be accompanied by C-RAM systems. But McKenzie hastened to add that it would be “some days” before those systems are in position and operational.
The belated decision to deploy Patriots to Iraq suggests that CENTCOM believes additional Iranian ballistic missile attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq are possible. Rocket attacks by Iran’s proxies are certainly continuing. Indeed, American troops at Camp Taji suffered another rocket attack on March 13, with three service members sustaining injuries.
These threats demonstrate the importance of the Army’s efforts to develop and field a new generation of IFPC. Army Futures Command says the new system will defend against rockets, artillery and mortars, as well as subsonic cruise missiles and many types of unmanned aerial systems.
The Army seeks a system that can provide “360-degree protection of critical fixed and semi-fixed assets” by engaging these threats simultaneously, according to Army Futures Command. The Army plans to have a “shoot-off” for the new systems in the third quarter of fiscal 2021, followed by vendor selection in the fourth quarter of FY21. If all goes well, the Army hopes to field an initial capability by the fourth quarter of FY23.
In the meantime, U.S. troops in Iraq cannot wait. If Washington is going to ask U.S. service members to deploy in harm’s way in Iraq or anywhere else, the Pentagon must ensure they have sufficient means to defend themselves. Given the persistent threat from Iran and its terrorist proxies, the deployment of Patriots and C-RAM systems to Iraq would represent a step in the right direction.
*Bradley Bowan is the senior director for the Center on Military and Political Power with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow.

The United States is still too reliant on oil

Varsha Koduvayur/CNN Business/March 17/2020
Oil prices have been cratering in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s decision to ramp up production and offer customers a discount for its crude. A decade ago, that would have been welcome news for the United States. But now, as the US oil industry grows — transforming the United States into one of the top exporters — the crash in prices threatens to cause as much pain as relief. This underscores an important dynamic: The United States continues to remain too reliant on oil.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to open its taps comes after talks with OPEC and non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, collapsed last week. Prices had already been sliding dangerously as coronavirus fears battered global demand for oil. Then Saudi Arabia escalated things when it slashed the price of its exports by $6 to $8 per barrel and announced it will also increase production by 2.5 million barrels per day by April 1. Brent crude, the international benchmark oil price, fell by more than 9% last week to $45.27 a barrel when OPEC and non-OPEC members failed to agree on a deal. And the day after Saudi Arabia announced its price war, US crude prices toppled to $31.13 per barrel, notching its worst one-day loss since 1991.
While the global decline in oil prices will certainly cause pain for both Saudi Arabia and Russia, its impact on US oil producers, especially many of the smaller shale producers, could be especially severe. Even major companies like Chevron and Exxon saw their stocks fall, while Occidental Petroleum — which took on significant debt to acquire a different US producer in 2019 — announced a major cut to its dividend.
The Trump administration is surely sympathetic to the plight of US shale producers suffering from decisions made in Saudi Arabia and Russia — both of whom would like nothing better than to see their US competitors go under. President Trump has made promoting America’s new-found energy independence a major priority, and his vitriol against OPEC is well-known. It wouldn’t be surprising if the White House sought federal aid for shale companies buffeted by the price fallout.
While such a move would be welcome amongst hurting shale producers and the tens of thousands of people that the industry employs, it would be a stopgap measure, at best. The shale revolution has been good for America, but it has only reduced — not ended — our reliance on foreign producers. As Riyadh and Moscow just demonstrated, authoritarian regimes overseas still have the capability to wield the oil weapon against the United States, albeit with low prices now instead of high prices.
If the United States really wants to attain energy independence, becoming a net exporter of oil isn’t enough. What America needs is a comprehensive vision for energy security, one that goes beyond fossil fuel independence.
This plan should entail sustained investment in alternative fuel sources and technologies, such as ethanol and electricity, as well as policies to promote a competitive marketplace for such fuels that can break gasoline’s near monopoly on the US transportation sector. A robust market for alternative fuels will buttress US companies and consumers from potentially destabilizing oil market fluctuations driven by hostile foreign powers.
An American vision for true energy independence should also prioritize increasing ownership of electric vehicles and enact policies that would incentivize this, including giving subsidies or indexing tax credits for electric vehicles. Government funding for R&D efforts at electric-vehicle companies would also provide EV manufacturers, like Tesla or Lucid Motors, additional resources to design more cost-effective models that will be accessible to a larger segment of the population. In tandem, the government must invest in building a national, well-connected charging infrastructure network that will operationalize extended EV usage. Investments to improve battery storage technology and reduce replacement costs will further encourage consumers to adopt electric vehicles.
The dynamics of America’s reliance on oil may have changed. We are no longer totally beholden to hostile foreign producers for vital energy imports, but these producers’ actions have ripple effects on global markets that continue to hurt us. If the United States really wants to be energy independent, it must look toward preparing for a post-oil future.
*Varsha Koduvayur is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where she focuses on the Gulf. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own.

China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2020
Beijing has, according to President Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro, already nationalized one American factory making medical masks. Moreover, Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo on air repeatedly said the Chinese forced at least one ship carrying masks, gloves, and other protective gear to the United States to return to China.
Trump's optimism is not shared in Beijing.... China, using the epidemic as an excuse, is now pushing to change the agreement by deferring its purchase obligations, the heart of the arrangement as far as the U.S. is concerned.
Xi Jinping, after all, knew about the coronavirus epidemic long before he signed the deal in the White House. In February, he said he had chaired a meeting of the Party's Politburo Standing Committee on January 7 in which he issued orders to contain the epidemic. Xi's knowledge of the outbreak on January 15 and his push for relief now, therefore, makes him look cynical. In all probability, he had no intention of honoring his side of the bargain from the beginning.
Americans — and the Chinese people, who are now demanding fundamental political change — realize that the real disease is communism.
China, as we now know, allowed the coronavirus to spread for six weeks in December and January before President Xi Jinping publicly acknowledged the disease. So, it is no surprise that Americans — and the Chinese people, who are now demanding fundamental political change — realize that the real disease is communism. Pictured: Communist Party "community volunteers" secure the entrance of a residential area as they take the temperature of a man on a street in Beijing, China on February 23, 2020.
Last July, five American analysts who have been consistently wrong told us "China is not an enemy."
Actually, this time they were technically right. China's communism is not an enemy. It is the enemy.
After the coronavirus pandemic subsides, Americans should not forget Beijing's malicious campaign against their country.
For more than a month, the central government's foreign ministry and the Communist Party's Global Times have been trying to tar the Trump administration. The campaign culminated in a series of tweets from rising Beijing star Zhao Lijian, foreign ministry spokesman and deputy director general of the ministry's Information Department.
On March 12, in a tweet, he accused U.S. officials of being "immoral." Hours before, he had tweeted that "patient zero" was in the U.S. and suggested that the U.S. Army had "brought the epidemic to Wuhan" -- intimating that America was conducting germ warfare.
Also that day, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, Zhao's boss, twisted testimony of Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to try to show that the coronavirus outbreak had started in America.
President Donald J. Trump, in his Rose Garden press conference the next day, March 13, downplayed the overtly hostile messages. He first noted his conversations with Chinese ruler Xi Jinping and then said, referring to Chinese leaders, "they know where it came from."
Actually, it is worse if Chinese officials in fact knew where the coronavirus originated. In this case, these officials, by going out of their way to blame the U.S., were demonstrating once again the inherent hostility of their system to America.
Unfortunately, Beijing cannot be deterred. The U.S. State Department on March 13 summoned Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai to protest the foreign ministry's disinformation campaign. Despite the warning, the Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Lin Songtian, on March 16 continued to promote the coronavirus-not-originated-in-China theory, with a tweet.
From here, it looks as if relations are only going to deteriorate. For one thing, Beijing's official Xinhua News Agency has been threatening to cut off "medical supplies," "plunging" America into a "mighty sea of coronavirus."
Beijing has, according to Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro, already nationalized one American factory making medical masks. Moreover, Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo on air repeatedly said the Chinese forced at least one ship carrying masks, gloves, and other protective gear to the United States to return to China.
Beijing's threat to cut off supplies and harm Americans will only encourage the U.S. to cut trade with China, or, more precisely, to not allow trade to return to pre-coronavirus levels. Reducing commerce, some believe, is the only long-term solution for the U.S. as Chinese communists have tried to use their central role as a manufacturer to spread totalitarianism and advance other geopolitical goals anathema to the Western democracies.
The cutting of links will still leave trade at high levels, at least at first. Nonetheless, the large volume of commerce, often called the "ballast" of China-U.S. ties, probably will not stabilize relations.
"Does trade increase or decrease the likelihood of conflict?" Samuel Huntington, the late Harvard political scientist, asked in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. "The assumption that it reduces the probability of war between nations is, at a minimum, not proven, and much evidence exists to the contrary."
High levels of trade did not prevent the First World War, he pointed out in that landmark book. As Huntington, building on the work of others, noted, what is important is expectation. "Economic interdependence fosters peace," he wrote, "only 'when states expect that high trade levels will continue into the foreseeable future.'" If, however, trade partners "do not expect high levels of interdependence to continue, war is likely to result."
Trump expects trade between the two nations to increase, saying on March 13 that China will be buying $250 billion more products pursuant to the Phase One trade deal signed January 15. Beijing in that agreement generally promised within a two-year period to increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion over 2017 levels.
Trump's optimism is not shared in Beijing, however. China, using the epidemic as an excuse, is now pushing to change the agreement by deferring its purchase obligations, the heart of the arrangement as far as the U.S. is concerned.
The Global Times notes that the pandemic inhibits Chinese demand for American goods, but that is not necessarily a good reason for relief from the terms of the deal.
Why not? Xi Jinping, after all, knew about the coronavirus epidemic long before he authorized the signing of the deal in the White House. In February, he said he had chaired a meeting of the Party's Politburo Standing Committee on January 7 in which he issued orders to contain the epidemic. Xi's knowledge of the outbreak on January 15 and his push for relief now, therefore, makes him look cynical. In all probability, he had no intention of honoring his side of the bargain from the beginning. Recall that Xi broke his September 2015 pledges to former President Barack Obama not to militarize China's artificial islands and not to hack America for commercial purposes.
In any event, this year Sino-U.S. trade will almost certainly decline. Such a delinking would be in line with Trump's stated desire to bring manufacturing back home.
The president has evidently been thinking about these matters for a long time. On July 21, 2017, for instance, he issued his Executive Order on Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States. The Defense Industrial Base study, as it is known, exposed American vulnerabilities and led to actions to encourage manufacturing to return home. Trump can now use his sweeping powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to continue this essential process.
Of course, war does not inevitably result when countries "delink," "decouple," or "disengage" their economies. Yet China and the U.S. are also moving apart as Americans become wary of an increasingly belligerent Chinese state, one that already has demonstrated that it has, for instance, little reluctance to injure Americans. China, as we now know, allowed the coronavirus to spread for six weeks in December and January before Xi publicly acknowledged the disease. So, it is no surprise that Americans — and the Chinese people, who are now demanding fundamental political change — realize that the real disease is communism. Coronavirus proves that for America and the Free World, China's communism is the enemy -- the one that really counts.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Coronavirus: Europe's 'Open Borders' System Faces Collapse

Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2020
"Merkel knows that the instruction to close the border, in general to take consistent national measures to protect her own citizens, would be tantamount to her own declaration of political bankruptcy." — Ferdinand Knauss, commentator on the German blog Tichys Einblick, March 16, 2020.
"Merkel is now fighting. But as always in her chancellorship, she is not fighting for her country and its citizens, for which she is responsible. She is fighting for her power, for her legacy. When the citizens come to understand this, the corona crisis will have been Merkel's last fight in the political arena." — Ferdinand Knauss, March 16, 2020.
In a March 13 press conference, the president of Italy's hard-hit Veneto region, Luca Zaia, said that Europe's borderless zone was "disappearing as we speak." He noted that the stringent border controls imposed by Austria shows that Schengen "no longer exists and will be remembered in the history books."
As a growing number of countries close their borders to fight the coronavirus pandemic, the European system of open internal borders — a cornerstone of European integration — is on the brink of collapse. Pictured: German policemen speak to people at the border crossing to France on March 16, 2020 in Kehl, Germany.
As a growing number of countries close their borders to fight the coronavirus pandemic, the European system of open internal borders — a cornerstone of European integration — is on the brink of collapse.
The so-called Schengen Area, which comprises 26 European countries, entered into effect in 1995 and abolishes the need for passports and other types of control at mutual borders. It is a key practical and symbolic achievement of European integration and is now falling apart.
In a move packed with political significance, Germany, the largest and most powerful country in the European Union, on March 16 introduced controls on its borders with Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland after it registered 1,000 new cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in just one day.
Anyone without a valid reason to travel, German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said, would be turned away at the borders. Travelers with symptoms of COVID-19 would be refused entry as well. German citizens and anyone with a residence permit, however, will be allowed to reenter Germany.
"Protecting our population also requires measures to reduce the risk of infection from global travel," Seehofer said. "We are dealing with a very aggressive and fast-spreading virus. We will have to deal with it for months. As long as there is no European solution, you have to act in the interest of your own people."
The decision to impose border controls represents a major reversal by the German government. Just a few days earlier, on March 11, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, "In Germany, we believe that border closings are not the answer to fight the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic." Her sentiment was echoed later that day by German Health Minister Jens Spahn, who stated, "We are not going to get rid of the virus by closing our borders. The virus is already with us and we have to get used to the idea."
On March 15, the German newspaper Bild reported that Merkel was still blocking all attempts by members of her cabinet to impose border controls. The infighting, however, had cost Germany valuable time in trying to contain the spread of the virus.
Writing for the influential German blog Tichys Einblick, commentator Ferdinand Knauss, explained that Merkel was blocking border controls because the dogma of open borders is an ideological pillar of Merkelism:
"In the face of the corona crisis, there were apparently discussions in the Federal Government about what most of our neighboring countries had long since done: consistent protective measures at the borders. Several of our neighboring countries — Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic, Austria — have largely closed their borders. In most countries, people from at-risk areas are strictly controlled upon entry. Not in Germany. You do not have to guess very long who prevents this. Only the Chancellor can do that. But why is she doing it?
"In that fateful year of 2015, the 'open borders' became a conditio sine qua non [indispensable condition] for the continuation of Merkelism. That is why the dogma must be maintained. Merkel knows that the instruction to close the border, in general to take consistent national measures to protect her own citizens, would be tantamount to her own declaration of political bankruptcy.
"So, as citizens become aware of the threat and their demand for protection increases, the corona crisis also becomes a crisis of Merkelism. It already is, as Merkel's rejection of border protection measures shows. One of the decisive questions will be how the media, which are still largely loyal to Merkel, and the political and social establishment weigh in: The morality of openness to the world versus the protection from threats. The greater and more painful the risk of corona, the harder it will be to neglect the need for protection.
"Merkel is now fighting. But as always in her chancellorship, she is not fighting for her country and its citizens, for which she is responsible. She is fighting for her power, for her legacy. When the citizens come to understand this, the corona crisis will have been Merkel's last fight in the political arena."
Merkel's stance had left Germany increasingly isolated, as a growing number of Schengen countries have introduced border controls:
Austria. On March 10, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced controls along the border with Italy and a ban on the entry of most travelers from there. Kurz said, "The utmost priority is to prevent the spread and thus the importing of the illness into our society. There is therefore a ban on entry for people from Italy into Austria, with the exception of people who have a doctor's note certifying that they are healthy." Interior Minister Karl Nehammer also announced a ban on all air or rail travel to Italy.
Slovenia. On March 11, Health Minister Ales Sabeder stated that the government had closed some border crossings with Italy and started making health checks at those remaining open in order to combat the spread of the coronavirus. He said that citizens would only be able to cross the border in six places while all other roads that crossed the border would be closed. Normally more than 20 crossings are open. Passenger train transport between the two countries has also been stopped and most bus companies have canceled routes to Italy. Sabeder said that foreigners with Slovenian residence permits would be allowed to enter Slovenia if they had a certificate that they have tested negative for coronavirus during the previous three days.
Poland. On March 13, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that, as of March 15, only Polish citizens or people with a Polish residence permit would be allowed to enter the country. Everyone returning home from abroad would be quarantined for 14 days. All international inbound passenger flights or trains are banned, but freight transport is not affected. "The state will not abandon its citizens," Morawiecki said. "In the current situation, however, we cannot allow ourselves to keep borders open to foreigners."
Switzerland. On March 13, the Swiss government reimposed border controls with other European countries. Switzerland, although not a member of the European Union, is part of the Schengen zone. Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said that travel restrictions from Italy were aimed at preventing Italian patients from seeking access to Swiss hospitals. Asylum seekers were also subject to the restrictions. Swiss citizens, holders of a resident permit as well as cross-border workers and people transiting through Switzerland are still allowed to enter the country.
Denmark. On March 14, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen imposed border controls on all traffic by air, land and sea until at least April 13. Danish citizens are allowed to enter but any non-Dane without a valid reason for travel will be denied entry. "We stand on uncharted territory," Frederiksen said. "We are in a situation that looks nothing like what any of us have experienced before. It is going to cost us all. If we do not do this, we risk that the costs, human, health and financial, will be far, far greater."
Hungary. On March 16, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that, effective immediately, all passenger traffic into Hungary would be halted and only Hungarian citizens allowed to enter the country. Previously, the government had imposed controls on the country's borders with Austria and Slovenia. All train travel was halted between Hungary and Croatia, Slovenia and Ukraine.
Spain. On March 16, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska decreed the reestablishment of controls at all land borders. Only Spanish citizens, people with Spanish residency and cross-border workers will be allowed to enter national territory by land. The measure does not affect the transport of goods.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia, in a bid to combat the spread of the coronavirus, also imposed border controls. Other European countries that are not part of the Schengen system, including Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia also introduced border controls.
The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry, which advised its citizens to avoid travelling abroad, described the current state of affairs:
"The situation at the land borders of European countries is constantly and drastically changing, which makes it impossible to travel to or from Bulgaria with all modes of transport.
"With regard to the prevention of the spread of the coronavirus, there is almost no country in Europe that has not at the moment introduced restrictive measures — border closures or separate border crossing points, enhanced border controls, shutdown of flights, closure of airports."
The break-down of Europe's system of open borders has been met with anger by those in favor of European integration. During a March 13 press conference in Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, warned member states not unilaterally to close their borders:
"The Single Market has to function. It is not good when Member States take unilateral action. Because it always causes a domino effect. And that prevents the urgently needed equipment from reaching patients, from reaching hospitals and the medical personnel. Ultimately, it amounts to reintroducing internal borders at a time when solidarity between Member States is needed."
In a desperate effort to save the Schengen system, Von der Leyen on March 16 proposed a 30-day entry ban into the European Union. The idea apparently was that if the EU's borders were closed to the outside world, individual member states would not have to close theirs.
Ironically, just a few days earlier, Von der Leyen had condemned the March 11 decision by U.S. President Donald J. Trump to impose a 30-day ban on continental Europeans traveling to the United States. "The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hotspots," Trump said. "As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe."
On March 12, Von der Leyen issued an angry statement:
"The Coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action.
"The European Union disapproves of the fact that the U.S. decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation."
Von der Leyen now says that she will present the EU heads of state with a proposal to ban "unnecessary trips" to the Union. The entry ban would initially be for 30 days but could be extended if necessary. "The fewer trips there are, the more we can contain the virus," she said.
Anja Krüger, the pro-EU business editor for the German newspaper Tagesspiegel, noted:
"It is breathtaking how the borders in Europe are closed in the wake of the corona crisis, how one country after another seals itself off. The pandemic shows how fragile the European Union is....
"After the pandemic subsides, will everything be the same as before, as if nothing had happened? The question is how far the corona crisis is capable of an ad hoc destruction of a slowly growing European awareness among the people in the EU member countries over the years.
"Much will depend on how the crisis is managed. However, the fact that the return to nationalism was carried out quickly and firmly will arouse desires among opponents of European unification. What goes once, goes again and again."
In a March 13 press conference, the president of Italy's hard-hit Veneto region, Luca Zaia, said that Europe's borderless zone was "disappearing as we speak." He noted that the stringent border controls imposed by Austria shows that Schengen "no longer exists and will be remembered in the history books."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran sees global health, economic crises as an opportunity
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/March 17, 2020
The world is in the grip of twin health and financial crises. The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic. The rapid spread of the disease has challenged world leaders and stretched health capacity to the limit in many countries. In their attempts to reduce the health risks, countries have drastically curtailed economic activity, making a global recession almost certain. Oil exporters are facing an additional crisis, with falling oil prices due to shrinking demand and the failure to reach agreement on production cuts. Comparable reductions in government revenues are expected to add to the economic woes.
However, Iranian hard-liners are focused on escalation against the US and its allies, taking advantage of the world’s preoccupation with the emerging health and economic problems.
How Iran allowed the coronavirus to spread before taking measures to contain it exposed deep problems in its political system and the dangers of clerical control of governmental decisions. Some clerics dismissed fears of contagion, claiming that frequenting religious sites and engaging in sacred rituals immunized visitors from the disease. This approach, together with a fragile health system, led to Iran becoming the first center of the disease outside China.
Tehran cynically encouraged citizens from neighboring countries to visit crowded religious sites in Iran without safeguards. It waived the stamping of passports to hide the fact that visitors had been to Iran, which made it difficult to screen travelers upon their return. It appears now that a majority of the infections detected in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries involved people who had visited Iran.
Adding to the confusion, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hinted that the US was behind the spread of the disease. Last week, he instructed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to establish a “medical base” to prevent the spread of the disease. The next day, he tweeted in English: “Since there is some evidence that this may be a ‘#BiologicalAttack,’ the establishment of this base in the armed forces for confronting the #Coronavirus may also be regarded as a biological defense exercise.” IRGC head Maj. Gen. Mohammed Salami speculated on March 5 that the global coronavirus outbreak might be a “US biological warfare attack on China.” Others said that coronavirus in Iran was an American biological attack aimed at the “resistance axis,” i.e., Iran and its regional allies.
Some see the disease in apocalyptic terms. On Sunday, Ali Reza Benahyan, a cleric close to Khamenei, said that the coronavirus spread was a certain sign of the approaching return of Al-Mahdi. The worse the conditions get, the closer we are to his reappearance, he told Tasnim News Agency.
While most people ridicule such pronouncements, many average citizens probably believed them. The denial of a scientific basis for the contagion accounts for the reluctance of some of those affected to declare themselves as such or to seek help, explaining in part the disease’s rapid spread in Iran and the difficulties GCC countries initially faced in detecting it in travelers from Iran.
Cynically, the IRGC saw in the epidemic an opportunity to accelerate the implementation of its designs in the region. This has been evident in Iraq and Yemen over the past few weeks.
In late February, Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Iranian-allied militia in Iraq, chose Abu Fadak, aka Abdul-Aziz Al-Mohammadawi, to succeed Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, who was killed in the US drone attack that targeted Qassem Soleimani in January. His choice indicated a harder line toward the US and its allies. Abu Fadak was previously in charge of intelligence at Kata’ib Hezbollah, managing its close affiliation with the IRGC. He was also responsible for coordinating the relationships between the Iran-allied militias in Iraq and Hezbollah of Lebanon and the Syrian regime. He is believed to have visited Yemen to assist the Houthis in their fight against the Yemeni government. Abu Fadak is also believed to have close contacts with Iran-allied groups in Bahrain, organizing their trips to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Abu Fadak wasted no time in carrying out Iran’s plans to drive American troops out of Iraq. His group is believed to be behind a number of recent attacks against US interests in Iraq. On March 11, a rocket attack on the Camp Taji base, north of Baghdad, which is used by the global anti-Daesh coalition, killed two Americans and one member of Britain’s armed forces, while injuring 14 others. Then, on Saturday, more than two dozen rockets were fired at the same base, wounding three Americans and two Iraqis.
Tehran cynically encouraged citizens from neighboring countries to visit crowded religious sites in Iran without safeguards.
In Yemen, the Iran-allied Houthis have reopened several fronts in a bid to drive government forces out. They attacked several targets in the Nehm Mountains near Sanaa, and in the Al-Jawf and Dhale provinces. In the process, the Houthis made the humanitarian crisis in the country worse. While the UN and coalition countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are trying to improve the humanitarian situation, the Houthis are exasperating the UN’s patience. They have hoarded aid intended for the needy, sold it on the black market at exorbitant prices, and frequently denied the UN access to food stores established by the organization itself. The new attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Yemenis, who have fled to government-controlled areas. The Houthis appear to follow the same pattern as Iran in terms of disregard for human lives in their pursuit for political and military gain.
It appears, then, that Iran’s hard-line officials have not seen the need during these difficult times to de-escalate and reach out to their neighbors and the international community. Instead, they have found it to be an opportunity to pursue their quixotic ambitions to dominate the region, while Iran itself is in the grips of a devastating disease and facing a deepening economic crisis that could lead to its bankruptcy.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council’s assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. Twitter: @abuhamad1

Erdogan determined to achieve goals in Syria despite setbacks

Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/March 17, 2020
The last fortnight has been particularly trying for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At the end of February, his troops in the Idlib area were subjected to heavy bombardment by Russian-backed Syrian forces, in which about 40 soldiers were killed. Erdogan responded by dispatching several thousand troops to the Idlib front.
Here, they came face-to-face with Syrian government forces, which, with Moscow’s help, have been steadily expanding their control over the Idlib countryside. Turkey’s observation posts on the north-south M5 highway from Aleppo to Damascus were completely surrounded by Syrian forces. Direct conflict between Turkey and Syria thus became a distinct possibility.
Desperate to obtain domestic support after the soldiers’ deaths, Erdogan announced on March 1 that “Operation Spring Shield” had been launched against Syria and that heavy losses had been inflicted on Bashar Assad’s forces — over 2,000 soldiers, including three generals, killed and more than 100 tanks destroyed, along with several air defense systems. These claims were later rejected by the Russians as gross exaggerations.
To avoid further escalation, what Erdogan desperately needed in early March was a quick cease-fire arranged by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is because the president’s Idlib policy enjoys little domestic support and further Turkish casualties would only increase opposition at home. Putin invited Erdogan to Moscow on March 5, when they finalized an “additional protocol” to the 2018 Sochi agreement, with a cease-fire coming into effect that night. The details of the agreement were finalized between the Russian and Turkish defense ministers in Ankara last Friday.
The agreement provides for a security corridor of six kilometers either side of a portion of the east-west M4 highway near Idlib, which is being patrolled jointly by Russian and Turkish personnel. This is very far from Erdogan’s demand that Syrian forces go back to their lines of September 2018, thus relinquishing the 2,000 square kilometers they have since occupied in their operations against the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
The agreement also makes no mention of the M5 highway, which will remain under Syrian control and provide the government with a valuable economic lifeline. Turkish observation posts are expected to be quietly dismantled.
It is also silent on the fate of the extremist fighters, mainly from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which are said to be holed up in Idlib. Under the Sochi agreement, Turkey had agreed to separate the “moderates” from the extremists and then initiate military action against the latter. Instead, Erdogan decided to co-opt HTS militants into the SNA by declaring them to be moderates. The refusal of the HTS elements to accept the Turkish game plan has been at the heart of the Russian-Turkish differences in Syria, which nearly culminated in conflict between them in early March. Now, Turkey will have to implement its commitments under the Sochi agreement and join Syria and Russia in war against the HTS and other radicals in Idlib.
Still, Erdogan does not seem to have accepted the setbacks his Idlib policies have suffered. He is attempting to strengthen his hand by getting support from the EU and the US, both of which he has scorned, while expanding political, economic and defense ties with Russia.
He is seeking to get the EU onto his side in Syria by encouraging the Syrian refugees in Turkey to cross over into Greece. He is thus deliberately creating a refugee crisis for Europe and is now demanding greater financial support if he is to keep the refugees in Turkey. So far, EU leaders have shown no enthusiasm for Erdogan’s attempts to intimidate them into supporting him.
To placate the US, he has asked that the supply of Patriot missile systems be revived. This supply had been blocked by the Americans when Turkey opted to buy the S-400 missile system from Russia. Erdogan recently told Turkish journalists that the US could be “softening” its position, but he was quickly disabused by the US Department of Defense, which said that the Patriots would only be supplied if the S-400 system was returned to Russia. This is unlikely: The S-400 system has been tested in Turkey and is likely to be pressed into service next month.
So far, EU leaders have shown no enthusiasm for Erdogan’s attempts to intimidate them into supporting him.
Finally, Erdogan has attempted to obtain domestic backing for his Syria policy by bringing in the Kurds — a useful target for Turkish public opinion. He recently revealed to the Turkish media his proposal to Putin to deprive the Syrian Kurds of their control of the oil fields at Qamishli and Deir Ezzor and use the money from oil sales to fund construction projects in Syria by Turkish companies. He added that Trump would be withdrawing US troops from the oil fields, thus facilitating the Turkish plan. Turkish commentators believe this proposal is far-fetched and unlikely to find favor with Syria, the Kurds or the US. But it does reveal Erdogan’s intention to pursue his policies in Syria despite the serious setbacks he has suffered. The cease-fire agreement is expected to have a very short life.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies at the Symbiosis International University, in Pune, India.