LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
While he was coming, the demon dashed him to the
ground in convulsions. But Jesus rebuked the unclean spirit, healed the boy, and
gave him back to his father
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 09/37-45/:”On the next day,
when they had come down from the mountain, a great crowd met him. Just then a
man from the crowd shouted, ‘Teacher, I beg you to look at my son; he is my only
child. Suddenly a spirit seizes him, and all at once he shrieks. It throws him
into convulsions until he foams at the mouth; it mauls him and will scarcely
leave him. I begged your disciples to cast it out, but they could not.’Jesus
answered, ‘You faithless and perverse generation, how much longer must I be with
you and bear with you? Bring your son here.’While he was coming, the demon
dashed him to the ground in convulsions. But Jesus rebuked the unclean spirit,
healed the boy, and gave him back to his father. And all were astounded at the
greatness of God. While everyone was amazed at all that he was doing, he said to
his disciples, ‘Let these words sink into your ears: The Son of Man is going to
be betrayed into human hands.’ But they did not understand this saying; its
meaning was concealed from them, so that they could not perceive it. And they
were afraid to ask him about this saying.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on March 15-16/2020
Lebanon Coronavirus Cases Rise from 93 to 99
Health Ministry: Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rises to 99
Aoun addressing the Lebanese ahead of Cabinet special session: Current health
situation requires the declaration of a 'state of general mobilization' in all
Lebanese regions
Supreme Defense Council decides to submit a 'general mobilization' request to
Council of Ministers
PM Hassan Diab's speech after extraordinary Cabinet session
Aoun Defends Coronavirus Measures, Says Health Emergency Needed
Govt. Closes Private, Public Institutions, Shuts Airport from Wednesday
Security Forces Clear Seaside Corniche after Crowding
Al-Rahi Urges Citizens Not to Leave Homes unless Necessary
Roukoz, Alameh Donate Salaries to Hospitals
Lebanon declares state of "public health emergency," shuts down airport/Georgi
Azar/Annahar/March 15/2020
Eurobond default sounds death knell for Lebanon’s system/Makram Rabah/The Arab
Weekly/15/2020
Diab must face reality if he is to steer Lebanon out of its crises/Khairallah
Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Will Lebanon’s Eurobond default spur much-needed reform?/Simon Speakman Cordall/The
Arab Weekly/15/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
March 15-16/2020
Misinformation adds to danger of virus outbreak/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Iran says worsening outbreak overwhelming health facilities..About 15% of
fatalities younger than 40.
Italy Hit by 368 New Coronavirus Deaths, Hospitals in Crisis
Spain, France Impose Tight Controls as Global Infections Pass 150,000
Anxious France Votes in Local Elections, Defying Virus
Russia and Turkey cut short first joint patrol along Syria's East-West highway
Syria's Brutal War Enters 10th Year
Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque shut as precaution against Coronavirus: Islamic Waqf
Israel Postpones Netanyahu Graft Trial by 2 Months over Virus
Netanyahu's challenger Gantz to form new Israeli cabinet
Sudan says will mediate Egypt-Ethiopia dam row
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on March 15-16/2020
Virus outbreak disrupts region's way of life, upends politics as usual/Lamine
Ghanmi/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Saudi-Russia oil showdown jolts global market/Jareer Elass//The Arab
Weekly/15/2020
Erdogan's invocation of Ottoman history fools no one/Baha al-Awam/The Arab
Weekly/15/2020
Washington downsizes Syria policy but bridge to Damascus is still too
far/Geoffrey Aronson/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Iran regime’s coronavirus misinformation campaign/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/March 15/2020
Turkey’s vacillation weakening its position/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 15/2020
Iran’s puppets pushing Iraq into failed statehood/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/March 15/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published on March 15-16/2020
Lebanon Coronavirus Cases Rise from 93 to 99
Naharnet/March 15/2020
Lebanon’s confirmed coronavirus cases have surged from 93 to 99, the Health
Ministry announced at noon Sunday.
In a statement, the ministry said the tally includes the cases reported by both
the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital and the country’s private
hospitals. It added that it is continuing to monitor all those coming from
countries witnessing virus outbreaks and those who have come in contact with
them. The ministry is also investigating “some few cases” of an unknown source,
it said, urging citizens to abide by authorities’ instructions and stay in their
homes unless it is extremely necessary to go out. The government is expected to
declare a state of emergency on Sunday afternoon. Educational institutions,
restaurants, nightclubs, pubs, cafes, exhibitions, parks, cinemas, malls and
other gathering venues have been closed since several days as part of the
measures against the virus.Lebanon has also banned flights from eleven hardly
hit countries, with critics lamenting that the decision came too late.
Health Ministry: Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rises
to 99
NNA/March 15/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, in a statement on Sunday, that
"ninety-nine new laboratory-confirmed cases infected with the novel Coronavirus
(COVID-19) have been registered, including the cases diagnosed at the Rafic
Hariri Governmental Hospital, and those reported from other university hospitals
accredited by the Ministry."The Health Ministry also reminded citizens to remain
at home and not to go out "unless absolutely necessary."
Aoun addressing the Lebanese ahead of Cabinet special session: Current health
situation requires the declaration of a 'state of general mobilization' in all
Lebanese regions
NNA/March 15/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, addressed the Lebanese at the
beginning of the special cabinet session convening this afternoon at Baabda
Palace, devoted to tackling developments and measures to confront the emerging
Corona virus.
"The current stage represents a health emergency that entails declaring a state
of general mobilization in all Lebanese regions," said Aoun.
"Today, in view of the fast spread of this epidemic, the global and local
inability to contain it so far, and the increased number of cases, the Council
of Ministers is holding this extraordinary session to adopt a series of
exceptional and temporary measures which will be announced at the end of the
session," he added.
The President called on the Lebanese, each from his/her own position, to commit
to awareness and comply with the required medical instructions that are being
broadcasted by official medical and media sides. He also urged citizens to
demonstrate "the most noble and highest manifestation of human commitment to
each other, with the required compliance, in view of ensuring the highest levels
of protection, keeping away from mingling and staying home."
"It is the moment of national solidarity for all of us. Together, we must
concretize this solidarity, in both of its humanitarian and societal dimensions,
with innovative and new ways," Aoun asserted.
"We are all one in the face of any danger that threatens the safety and life of
any Lebanese, in any Lebanese region," the President corroborated.
In his detailed address, the President of the Republic said:
"My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen, dearly beloved,
It is the first time in about a century that Lebanon faces an epidemic with a
global prevalence. It is the coronavirus which was classified by the World
Health Organization as a pandemic a few days ago. It spreads in various ways and
may be life-threatening, as it may cross borders, systems and countries. To
date, science has not been able to find a proper prevention or treatment for it.
It therefore requires the highest levels of prevention and protection to curb
the spread of the virus.
For weeks now, we have not failed at all to confront it, with determination,
will and awareness, instantaneously and preemptively. The various health sectors
in Lebanon have been mobilized, under the direct supervision of the Prime
Minister and the Ministerial Committee for Coronavirus prevention. All the
necessary measures have been taken, at an exemplary speed, in order to counter
this epidemic and prevent its spread in our country and among our nationals. The
measures that were taken and the speed in which they were executed at both
public and private levels, amid very complicated economic and financial
circumstances, earned the appreciation of international bodies, especially that
Lebanon has been a pioneer in taking them compared to other brotherly and
friendly States whose populations are larger, and so are their incidence rates.
Today, in view of the fast spread of this epidemic, the global and local
inability to contain it so far, and the increased number of cases, the Council
of Ministers is holding this extraordinary session to adopt a series of
exceptional and temporary measures which will be announced at the end of the
session, especially that the current situation represents a health emergency
that requires the declaration of a state of general mobilization in all Lebanese
regions.
My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen,
It is the moment of truth for us all, the first in our modern history. Indeed,
before the health of each citizen, all the narrow political considerations fall.
It is absolutely no time to score points and exchange accusations, nor is it
time for political exploitation of whichever nature, because this epidemic does
not distinguish between loyalist and opposition, nor between a claimant of the
right and an indifferent.
It is the moment of national solidarity for all of us. Together, we must
concretize this solidarity, in both of its humanitarian and societal dimensions,
with innovative and new ways. We are all one in the face of any danger that
threatens the safety and life of any Lebanese, in any Lebanese region.
On my part, I will not relent in view of securing the necessary protection from
this epidemic for every citizen and resident, and the necessary treatment for
every affected person. I am confident that the Council of Ministers acts with
one heart and one hand, alongside the concerned authorities, in order to attain
this goal; and this is at the core of the national duties that we shoulder.
My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen,
I share the concerns of each and every one of you, about yourselves, your
parents and your loved ones, but fear was never our way, as Lebanese, to
confront dangers.
Each one of us is invited, from their own position, to commit to awareness and
comply first with the required medical instructions, which are being broadcasted
and spread by the various official, medical and media parties to explain how
best to abide by them.
We are also invited to the most noble and highest manifestation of human
commitment to each other, with the required compliance, in view of ensuring the
highest levels of protection, keeping away from mingling and staying home.
These hard days that we are going through are not a prison nor a punishment, as
they are not - at the same time - a chance to stop the cycle of life or
surrender to void. Everyone is invited to continue their work, from home, in the
manner that they deem appropriate, so that learning is pursued for students, and
work for workers, and so that institutions remain as "alive" and active as
possible.
Let us avail ourselves of these days, no matter how long they may last, to
ascertain that we are one people, worthy of life and capable of overcoming its
hardships.
My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen,
You have siblings and parents who have volunteered to help in the medical
confrontation operations at our hospitals. On behalf of all of you, I salute
each one of them, for they are the role models of dedication for the safety and
life of the Lebanese.
To the medical and nursing corps in our governmental and private hospitals, who
are today at the frontline of confrontation, and of whom some members have been
affected by this epidemic, we owe a tribute of respect and a call to move
forward.
To every person who has been affected by this epidemic, we pray for a prompt
recovery, and we all bow out of reverence before the memory of the victims who
have fallen to it.
My fellow Lebanese ladies and gentlemen, dearly beloved,Our national unity has
been and remains our source of strength and our shield of protection. Thanks to
it, we have achieved our invincibility, and today, it will support our strength
and confirm our victory against this epidemic, in view of regaining, as soon as
possible, our normal regular life and the passion of living that we stand out
for.
Long Live the Lebanese! Long Live Lebanon!"
Supreme Defense Council decides to submit a 'general mobilization' request to
Council of Ministers
NNA/March 15/2020
The Supreme Council of Defense, which convened this afternoon at Baabda Palace
under President Michel Aoun, and attended by Prime Minister Hassan Diab,
concerned cabinet ministers, Army Chief and various security heads, appealed to
the Council of Ministers to confront the threat of the Corona virus, by
declaring 'general mobilization' in the country, as stipulated by Article 2 of
Legislative Decree No. 102/1983 (National Defense). Following the meeting, the
Council's Secretary General, Major General Mahmoud al-Asmar, said: "His
Excellency, the President began the session by briefly touching on the steps and
measures to be taken in the context of the coronavirus prevention...The
President considered that the situation has reached a health emergency stage,
thus requiring the adoption of the procedures stipulated in Article 2 of
Legislative Decree No. 102/1983 (National Defense), represented by declaring
general mobilization."He added that the Prime Minister, in turn, stressed that
the status quo now calls for more comprehensive steps. "The Public Health
Minister also presented the situation in terms of hospitalization and health,
highlighting the importance and necessity of following-up on the issue from all
its aspects," al-Asmar went on.He added that heads of military and security
services also briefed the conferees on the data available to them regarding this
epidemic and ways to deal with it. At the end of the Council's meeting, public
administrations and military and security services were requested to follow-up
on field conditions and report their findings to the concerned authorities.
PM Hassan Diab's speech after extraordinary Cabinet session
NNA/March 15/2020
The Information office of Presidency of the Council of Ministers, issued the
speech of PM Hassan Diab after the extraordinary cabinet session: 'Dear fellow
Lebanese
Our country is going through difficult times, burdened by worries, crises, and
problems. Now is th e time for patience, courage, reason, wisdom, peace, and
carefulness. Now is the time for care, for protecting ourselves and those we
cherish most: our families, children, brothers, sisters, and friends.
Now is the time for cooperation, mobilization, volunteering, initiatives, help,
support, good deeds, and saving others. Today, more than ever, Lebanese need to
be united, as they have always been in the face of crises. As I express my pride
towards all efforts made by institutions and entities to contain the virus that
struck our Lebanon and the whole world, threatening each and every one of us, I
call on all Lebanese to abide by the highest levels of alert, to be able to
control this epidemic and defeat it. And to every doctor out there, every nurse,
every assistant, every pharmacist, every hygiene worker, every Red Cross member,
every WHO member, and every volunteer, on behalf of all Lebanese, I salute you
for all your efforts and sacrifices, for your humanitarian compassion and
patriotism.
My fellow Lebanese, Until today, we have succeeded in hindering the spread of
the virus, since it began to spread across the globe as of December 31st, 2019.
A scientific, practical, and proactive strategy has been set forth to protect
the Lebanese citizens, exceptional measures have been adopted since the
beginning, and Lebanon was able to contain the first wave of the virus without
commotion, because we are doing our duties. Though we are facing criticism due
to our measures to suspend schools and universities, we took these actions ahead
of the world, and they positioned us several steps ahead of the virus. And when
these actions proved to be adequate, outbids became more frequent, prioritizing
political investments over the people’s safety.
Today, Lebanon is experiencing a state of emergency, therefore, the Government
declares a state of general mobilization until the end March 31st, 2020.
We have taken advanced measures to halt travel to certain countries before the
World Health Organization had declared them contaminated, such as: Italy, Iran,
Great Britain, Egypt, France, Germany, Syria, and Spain, as we had suspended the
access of nationals of these countries, and ensured the safe return of our
citizens and their family under the World Health Organization’s close
supervision.
Exceptional measures were also adopted at the airport, and we continued
implementing them to ensure adequate testing of travelers arriving to Lebanon,
from body-temperature control, on-board tests, and isolation for fourteen days.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Interior assigned a team to supervise and implement
the self-isolation strategy. We have asked all public and private hospitals to
elaborate emergency preparation plans, and have assigned the Rafik Hariri
Hospital as the sole center to receive patients, to avoid exhausting all
hospitals and to safeguard healthcare for patients that are not infected by
coronavirus.
Three weeks ago, a decision was made by the Government to suspend schools,
universities, and nurseries. This measure proved to be the main factor that
limited the spread of the disease and allowed its containment. Ten days ago,
cafes, restaurants, bars, public parks, ski resorts, and leisure centers of all
kinds such as public and private sports courts, swimming pools, health centers
and others were closed. We have also called upon both public and private sectors
to adopt rotating schedules to limit as much as possible the presence of
employees, in a way to ensure continuous working hours.
Moreover, we have asked all religious authorities to take extreme measures to
limit gatherings in places of worship and their relevant facilities. We have
furthermore implemented the safe-distance principle between individuals, and
have issued recommendations a week ago, addressed to our citizens, inciting them
to avoid crowded places, to suspend all social events, gatherings at homes as
well as outside, and to only leave their houses in cases of extreme necessity.
These strategies have led to a great reduction – more than 80%, - of airport
activities, as well as road traffic. The necessary instructions were given in
order to activate the Risk, Catastrophe, and Crisis Management units and
committees within the Presidency of the Council of Ministers as well as
governorates, in addition to which, we have agreed with the private sector to
adopt emergency response strategies that would adequately cover all health and
non-health sectors, and their implementation has already begun.
Additionally, we have commissioned all the relevant official administrations to
adopt the necessary measures without exception, within the scope of their
capabilities and resources, in order to break out of traditional and routine
methods, and secure the strategies that were undertaken. The measures and
actions we have taken to protect the Lebanese represent the highest level of
what may be constitutionally adopted, and never in the history of Lebanon have
these been implemented. Any discourse out of this context is void of meaning.
What is asked of all the forces today, is to measure up to national
responsibilities, to gather around the State and its institutions, to provide
support and counsel, to save the Lebanese people.
There is no doubt that these measures will affect our economy, much like
international economies have been affected. However, the people’s lives and
safety are far more precious, and remain our priority above all else. I
understand the Lebanese people’s fears. Over the last few weeks, my thoughts
have been with you… fathers, mothers… brothers… sisters… children and
grandchildren… cousins, friends, neighbors, and colleagues… My thoughts were
with all of you, on how to protect and save you. I will remain as transparent as
you have known me to be, in stating the facts as they truly are, and we will do
all that we possibly can to protect the Lebanese people.
Aoun Defends Coronavirus Measures, Says Health Emergency Needed
Naharnet/March 15/2020
President Michel Aoun on Sunday defended the measures that have been taken by
Lebanese authorities to confront the COVID-19 coronavirus. “Over the past weeks,
we have not been lax at all in confronting (the coronavirus crisis) with
determination, will and awareness and in an instant and preventative manner,”
Aoun said in an address to the nation at the beginning of an emergency Cabinet
session in Baabda. “All the necessary measures were taken in an optimal pace to
confront the threats of this pandemic and limit its spread,” the president
added. He announced that the Cabinet would approve extraordinary and
preventative measures at the end of its session, noting that “the current state
requires a health emergency and general mobilization.” “The time is for not
scoring points, exchanging accusations or political exploitation,” Aoun urged.
The Cabinet session was preceded by a Higher Defense Council meeting and
bilateral talks between Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab. The decision to
declare "general mobilization" was taken in the Defense Council meeting and is
expected to be officially endorse by Cabinet. Lebanon has so far confirmed 99
coronavirus cases including three deaths, according to a Health Ministry
statement issued at noon Sunday. Educational institutions, restaurants,
nightclubs, pubs, cafes, exhibitions, parks, cinemas, malls and other gathering
venues have been closed since several days as part of the measures against the
virus. Lebanon has also banned flights from eleven hardly hit countries, with
critics lamenting that the decision came too late.
Govt. Closes Private, Public Institutions, Shuts Airport
from Wednesday
Naharnet/March 15/2020
The government on Sunday declared “general mobilization” over the coronavirus
crisis and announced a two-week lockdown of the country. The lockdown measures
include asking citizens to “stay home unless it is extremely necessary” and a
two-week closure of public and private institutions as well as the airport and
the land and sea ports of entry. The airport will be closed from Wednesday until
March 29 to all flights except for cargo planes and passenger planes carrying
UNIFIL members, diplomatic crews, staff of international organizations and
employees of firms linked to oil and gas drilling in Block 4 of Lebanon’s
Exclusive Economic Zone. Lebanese citizens, foreign family members and holders
of Lebanese residency permits will meanwhile be allowed to return to Lebanon
from March 15 until March 18 on the condition that they test negative for
coronavirus after taking PCR tests.
“This decision does not apply to those coming from countries already under a
travel ban: France, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Germany, Spain, the UK, Italy, Iran,
China (including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), and South Korea,” the Cabinet
said in a statement issued after an emergency meeting and recited by Information
Minister Manal Abdul Samad. The closure of institutions, from March 15 until
March 29, will meanwhile exclude public institutions that perform vital tasks
and private firms related to “food security” and the medical sector as well as
banks, money exchange shops and import and export companies.
“We are in a health emergency and the government declares general mobilization
until March 29,” Prime Minister Hassan Diab said after the cabinet session. “It
is time for cooperation, mobilizing capabilities, volunteering and making
initiatives to save others and the Lebanese,” he added. Calling on the Lebanese
to show solidarity, Diab announced that so far, Lebanon has managed to “slow the
spread of the virus.”“We have devised a scientific strategy to protect the
Lebanese,” he said. “We have taken preventative measures and Lebanon has managed
to contain the first wave of the virus,” he added.
Lebanon has so far confirmed 99 coronavirus cases including three deaths,
according to a Health Ministry statement issued at noon Sunday.Educational
institutions, restaurants, nightclubs, pubs, cafes, exhibitions, parks, cinemas,
malls and other gathering venues have been closed since several days as part of
the measures against the virus.
Security Forces Clear Seaside Corniche after Crowding
Naharnet/March 15/2020
Municipal police on Sunday cleared the landmark seaside corniche in Beirut’s Ain
el-Mreisseh and Manara areas after scores of people flocked to it for strolling,
jogging, swimming, fishing and other activities despite the coronavirus crisis.
A statement said Beirut Governor Ziad Chebib asked municipal police to clear the
area at the instructions of Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. Patrols will
meanwhile continue around the clock in the capital, the statement said. Army
intelligence agents meanwhile asked citizens to leave the Dbaye seaside corniche
according to media reports.The country’s health authorities have warned against
gatherings and the government is poised to declare a health emergency and
general mobilization. Lebanon has so far confirmed 99 coronavirus cases
including three deaths, according to a Health Ministry statement issued at noon
Sunday. Educational institutions, restaurants, nightclubs, pubs, cafes,
exhibitions, parks, cinemas, malls and other gathering venues have been closed
since several days as part of the measures against the virus.Lebanon has also
banned flights from eleven hardly hit countries, with critics lamenting that the
decision came too late.
Al-Rahi Urges Citizens Not to Leave Homes unless Necessary
Naharnet/March 15/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday called on the Lebanese not to leave
their homes unless it is extremely necessary as a precaution against the spread
of the COVID-19 coronavirus. “Brother and sisters, you came here despite the
fears over leaving homes and mixing with people, but your faith and our faith
remain stronger than fear,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. But he
stressed that it is crucial to observe caution through “avoiding leaving homes
unless it is extremely necessary.”The patriarch also warned against gatherings,
saying people should not sit close to each other and calling on believers to
“benefit from religious media outlets which help us to pray in our homes.”
Lebanon has so far confirmed 99 coronavirus cases including three deaths,
according to a Health Ministry statement issued at noon Sunday. The government
is expected to declare a state of emergency on Sunday afternoon. Educational
institutions, restaurants, nightclubs, pubs, cafes, exhibitions, parks, cinemas,
malls and other gathering venues have been closed since several days as part of
the measures against the virus.Lebanon has also banned flights from eleven
hardly hit countries, with critics lamenting that the decision came too late.
Roukoz, Alameh Donate Salaries to Hospitals
Naharnet/March 15/2020
Independent MP Chamel Roukoz and Development and Liberation bloc MP Fadi Alameh
on Sunday announced that they will donate their salaries and compensations to
hospitals as a contribution to the anti-coronavirus fight. In a tweet, Roukoz
said he took his decision “based on the principle of national and humanitarian
solidarity,” saying the donation will go to the Bouar state-run hospital. He
also urged all citizens to offer assistance to medical crews, hospitals and
“even individuals who want to carry out tests and necessary treatments.”Alameh
for his part hailed the efforts of the employees of the state-run Rafik Hariri
University Hospital and said his salary and compensations will go to the
employees throughout the duration of the crisis. Lebanon has so far confirmed 99
coronavirus cases including three deaths, according to a Health Ministry
statement issued at noon Sunday.
Lebanon declares state of "public health emergency," shuts
down airport
Georgi Azar/Annahar/March 15/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon declared Sunday a state of "public health emergency" and
announced "full mobilization" to better combat the coronavirus outbreak in the
wake of a dramatic increase in cases over the weekend.
Lebanon's airport will be shut down from March 18 until March 29, barring
diplomats and UNIFIL personnel, Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad said. All
other maritime and land crossings will also be closed. The policy was announced
after a meeting between Lebanon's top officials in response to the outbreak
which has infected over 100 people and killed three. "This outbreak concerns all
Lebanese, who must now unite to confront this grave danger," President Michel
Aoun said.
It will allow authorities to confine people, limit their movement, shut down
factories and ration food. The majority of the public and private sectors will
also be on lockdown in a bid to contain the spread of the virus. Banks'
operations will be restricted to "the bare minimum," Samad said, with the
Central Bank exempted from the public closure. In a statement, the Association
of Banks announced that all branches would be closed during this period, in line
with the government's "measures to confront the outbreak." Schools have already
shut down across the country, with movie theatres, gyms, cafes and restaurants
also ordered to seize operations. Bakeries, supermarkets and pharmacies will
continue operations.
“All the necessary measures were taken at an optimal pace to confront the
threats of this pandemic and limit its spread,” Aoun added.
Lebanon's government approved these measures following at the end of its session
Sunday, noting that “the current state requires a health emergency and general
mobilization.”
Spain ordered a similar lockdown after its number of cases jumped to the
second-highest in Europe only behind Italy.
The current Spanish tally stands at 6,100 up by about 2,000 cases from Friday
and seven times as much as Monday. About 190 people have died. Hospitals have
scrambled to better equip themselves for a spike in cases, with the American
University of Beirut Medical Center leading the charge.
It has transformed its Children’s Cancer Center of Lebanon into a makeshift
coronavirus ward, cutting it off from the rest of the hospital. Other hospitals,
including Saint Georges, Hotel Dieu and Rizk are undertaking similar initiatives
in anticipation of a drastic increase in infections. “Lebanon has a total of
12,555 beds, including 2,026 beds in Intensive Care Units (ICUs)," Health
Minister Hamad Hassan said Thursday.
China, where the virus is believed to have originated, also sent a team of
experts along with medical and screening equipment to the cash-strapped
Medeterean country.
Despite the government's pleas calling for self-isolation, a number of Lebanese
continued to heed its warnings while going about their day to day lives. In
response, municipal police on Sunday cleared the landmark seaside corniche in
Beirut’s Ain el-Mreisseh and Manara areas after hundreds of people flocked the
area for leisure purposes. They were seen strolling, jogging, swimming and
fishing before ordered to dismantle. Patrols will continue around the clock in
the capital, a statement by the municipality said.
Eurobond default sounds death knell for Lebanon’s system
Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Countries, just like people, know their birth date but not the day of their
demise. In this respect, Lebanon has proved to be an exception because, on March
9, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced that his government would
default a $1.2 billion Eurobond debt.Lebanon’s entry into the not-so-prestigious
club of defaulting countries is an announcement of the end of Lebanon’s economic
model, one that has been in play since the establishment of the republic by the
French mandate 1920.
The decision of the Diab government to default on its sovereign debt was
somewhat expected because nearly all international rating agencies had forecast
it. The big three credit rating agencies — Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch
Group — previously declared that the Lebanese government lacked currency
reserves to pay the debt, which Beirut denied, even threatening to sue anyone
who claimed otherwise.
The Lebanese state and Banque Du Liban Governor Riad Salame for years assured
the public that the central bank had ample reserves, which proved to be a
scandalous fallacy
While news of default was unfavourable for the international community and
creditors of the debt, the Lebanese public welcomed the action — or lack thereof
— because defaulting on the Eurobond saved what is left of the country’s
much-needed foreign currency reserves to allow for the purchase of basic
commodities such as wheat, medicine and fuel.
Ostensibly, the government’s decision to suspend payment came as a response to
popular demand but, in fact, the Diab government had no other option after it
failed to garner any financial support from the international community and
turned down the possibility of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.
A week before Lebanon defaulted, Hezbollah took a very aggressive stand against
the possibility of an IMF bailout, claiming that the financial package would
include political terms that would infringe on Lebanon’s sovereignty.
If Hezbollah was truly mindful of its host country’s well-being, it should start
by recalling its troops who are engaged in Iran’s regional expansion plan and
stop its relentless attack against the Arab Gulf countries that, contrary to
Iran’s empty promises, have always provided financial assistance to Lebanon and
its people.
Yet the real tragedy for Lebanon is not its entry into the club of defaulting
nations but rather the performance of the Diab government and its handlers,
which might make this lifetime club membership. This is particularly the case
because, until now, Diab failed to develop a clear and credible reform and
action plan that considers the challenges of political and economic reform in
Lebanon.
While it is correct that rescheduling a country’s debt does not necessarily mean
its ultimate demise, in the case of Lebanon it is proof that the liberal
economic model that the Lebanese hold dear and the hegemony of Iran and
Hezbollah over all aspects of the state simply do not mix.
Diab’s announcing the default drove the final nail into the coffin of the
Lebanese political establishment that keeps using the pretext of Hezbollah to
derail and stall reform, a pretext that is no longer accepted by Lebanon’s
regional Arab allies or the international community.
Contrary to what many in the Lebanese elite keep repeating, Lebanon’s problem is
neither fiscal nor economic and sovereign debt restructuring, as proposed by the
Diab government, will fail unless it is carried out by competent and politically
willing and sovereign institutions, something Lebanon clearly lacks.
Thus, instead of regaining the sovereignty of the state and standing up to
Hezbollah’s continued infringements of it, Diab and his entourage have
systematically lowered the expectations of the Lebanese and tried to appease
them by claiming that they are, indeed, mindful of their health and financial
future.
Defaulting on the Eurobond is merely a symptom exposing the degree of decay of
Lebanon’s entire political system, which is simply rotten to its core, a
rottenness that no sweet-talking mediocre technocratic government can whitewash
or salvage.
The pandemic spread of the coronavirus has aggravated the economic and political
crisis. While it is certain that a cure for that virus will sooner or later be
found, Lebanon’s political ailments have to be remedied from within and will
require a new and capable cabinet that is not politically or morally bankrupt.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, department of
history. His forthcoming book, “Conflict on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, the
Maronites and Collective Memory,” (Edinburgh University Press) covers collective
identities and the Lebanese Civil War.
Diab must face reality if he is to steer Lebanon out of its crises
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
It’s useful, from time to time, to resort to common sense and possess some level
of modesty and realism, even if just a little bit.
That is the natural reaction to the speech March 7 during which Lebanese Prime
Minister Hassan Diab announced Lebanon’s intent to default on its Eurobond debt.
Lebanon borrowed a lot of money by issuing international bonds in euros and is
unable to pay its dues because it is suffering from economic collapse.
When you are in that situation, it won’t help to talk about corruption in the
country and how it developed to scandalous and outrageous levels. What one needs
to hear is whether your government has a plan to get the country out of its
mess.
It’s not enough to blame past administrations. What was even worse was that Diab
got the past mixed up and could not distinguish between one stage and the next.
He never mentioned the party or parties responsible for driving the country’s
debt through the roof. He did not mention electricity in Lebanon, a sector that
has been the fiefdom of the Aounist movement for 11 years. Corruption in that
sector caused a $40 billion increase in Lebanon’s foreign debt.
If Diab does not want to clash with Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s Free
Patriotic Movement, headed by Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, can he at least
have the courage to put his finger on the source of all of Lebanon’s ills: the
illegal weapons of Hezbollah’s militia that are used to force Lebanon to join
“the axis of resistance”?
By positioning itself in this axis, Lebanon sealed its Arab and international
isolation and Diab was just speaking to himself when he declared Lebanon’s
inability to pay its debt.
Lebanon’s foreign debt has reached about $90 billion and this is the first time
in its modern history it refused to repay its obligations. Granted that Lebanon
is not the first country to find itself in such a predicament but the crucial
question is: Has it done what it should have done to guarantee itself the right
to negotiate for rescheduling its debts in a way acceptable to international
financial institutions and to friendly countries, especially the Arab donor
countries that had always been ready in the past to help Lebanon?
Nothing of this sort has taken place and, to make matters worse, nothing has
been prepared for the after-non-payment phase. Lebanon simply announced that it
will not pay, then decided to negotiate.
Such a move does not reflect responsible political leadership concerned about
the fate of the country as much as it reflects a desire to push the country
further into the unknown, like the scenario that unfolded in Venezuela with the
dire consequences that plunged the country into chaos and poverty, not knowing
if it will ever get out of it.
It was important for Diab to correctly diagnose the country’s situation. He
recognised that “Lebanon is going through a very delicate stage” and that “our
reserves of hard currencies reached a critical and dangerous level.” And then
what?
The prime minister has no choice but to face the truth instead of running away
from it. There is a need for a minimum of humility and logic. There is no future
for Lebanon without external support and Diab cannot secure that support for two
obvious reasons: he is unacceptable to the Arab countries and he does not want
to deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) because of Hezbollah’s veto
of such a move.
Lebanon has only two paths to follow: reopen channels with the donor Arab
countries, even though they are suffering from the sharp drop in oil prices, or
to the IMF. Hezbollah, however, has blocked that one.
As for reforms Diab talked about and had been called for during the CEDRE
Conference in 2018, thanks to the personal efforts of former Prime Minister Saad
Hariri, that path has been closed. No reforms are possible in a country ruled by
the illegal weapons employed in the service of Iran’s expansion project.
Ultimately, it must be recognised that Hezbollah does not care whether Lebanon
survives. It is only interested in what Iran wants. Hezbollah deliberately
overlooked everything that the Aoun cronies did in the electricity sector
because it needed a Christian cover.
Does Diab have the audacity to open the file of the electricity sector or is his
agenda dictated by Hezbollah and consists of attacking the banking sector in
Lebanon?
The demonising campaign against Lebanese banks denotes a clear lack of knowledge
of Lebanese history and of reasons for the country’s past prosperity and for how
Lebanon’s banks formed an obstacle to the threat of collapse following the
original sin of signing the ill-fated Cairo Agreement in 1969. At that time
Lebanon signed off its end, which is going to be this time at the hands of
Hezbollah rather than Palestinian weapons.
When there are declarations of the type “We do not need a banking sector that is
four times larger than the size of our economy; therefore, a plan to restructure
the banking sector must be prepared,” it can only be concluded that whoever said
it and the parties behind him are deliberately sweeping aside the secret behind
Lebanon’s survival and want to push the country towards a Venezuelan scenario.
Are banks not part of the national economy?
Before Diab’s speech, there was a tiny glimmer of hope that Hezbollah would push
towards giving the government room to manoeuvre to secure the savings deposited
in banks by Lebanese citizens, some of whom have expatriated themselves in the
four corners of the Earth to secure a better life for their families.
What the prime minister’s speech revealed was that what was required of Lebanon
was to remain a “playing field.” Lebanon is required to remain an Iranian card
at a time when the Islamic Republic is going through a deep crisis, from which
it is unlikely to emerge unscathed and able to maintain its expansion project,
of which Lebanon has become an integral part.
The current Lebanese government will find any way out of the state of collapse.
In fact, it came to consecrate it and the proof is that it has no answers to
simple questions from the Lebanese: Where are our bank deposits? Where is
tourism? Where is foreign trade? Where is the clear stand on Iran’s exporting
the coronavirus to Lebanon?
There is only one possible summary of Diab’s speech: This government cannot
protect the money of the Lebanese people, nor can it protect their health.
Therefore, some humility seems more than necessary.
*Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese writer.
Will Lebanon’s Eurobond default spur much-needed reform?
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world.
TUNIS - Lebanon has defaulted on its international debts for the first time.
Through civil war and social and political turmoil, Lebanon had always met its
economic obligations.
However, convulsed by a long-foreshadowed currency crisis and battered by the
spread of coronavirus, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab said in a televised
address March 7 that he was placing the needs of Lebanon’s citizens ahead of its
fiscal responsibilities.
Announcing the country would not be paying the $1.2 billion Eurobond due March 9
he said: “How can we pay the creditors while there are people in the streets
without the money to buy a loaf of bread?”
Few were surprised by Diab’s decision. Lebanon’s economy has been in decline for
several years. Reports by the Financial Times in 2011 suggested Lebanon’s
reliance on domestic consumption and hard currency remittances from the diaspora
placed its economy at risk.
Over the following years, corruption and mismanagement along with Lebanon’s
confessional system of government produced an economic crisis with no immediate
solution.
Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, owing more than $90
billion, approximately 170% of GDP.
Official estimates in January stated that inflation was running at a
year-on-year rate of 10%. However, a leading consumer association told Bloomberg
News that prices have risen 45% since October, affecting purchasing power at an
“unprecedented rate” as companies slash both jobs and pay.
“Since around August of 2019 and the dollar shortage at the banks, we’ve seen
price hikes, a decline in consumer confidence and difficulties in importing and
pricing basic goods such as wheat and fuel,” said Kareem Chehayeb an
investigative journalist at the Public Source, an independent Lebanese media
organisation.
Banks that remained open throughout Lebanon’s 15-year civil war are now closing
early, cutting credit card limits and dramatically curtailing the public’s
access to the country’s diminishing dollar supply.
“As the conditions worsened, we saw mass layoffs and salary cuts,” Chehayeb
said. “Couple that with an inflated black market exchange rate dominating the
markets and people’s lives have clearly worsened significantly.”
Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser at the United States Institute of Peace, said:
“Estimates already indicate that as much as 50% of the population live below the
poverty line. Many people have faced layoffs and inflation is rising as the
Lebanese pound continues to lose value. Many people are taking a de facto
‘haircut’ as their dollar-denominated accounts are translated into lira at a
devalued rate.
“Unfortunately, more pain lies ahead in the short to medium term as austerity
measures eventually are put in place following the default.”
“The medium- and long-term implications of the Eurobond default will very much
depend on what measures and reforms Lebanon undertakes following the default.
Obviously, a default is never good and Lebanon will necessarily pay a price in
the markets for having failed to repay its debt,” she added.
Yacoubian said there remained the possibility that the default may spur
much-needed reform, which, while including austerity, should “include a shift
towards greater transparency and accountability and measures to combat
widespread corruption, then the long-term prognosis for Lebanon is far better as
the economy will be on a far more solid footing.”
Under typical circumstances, a country experiencing similar conditions would
look to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for support. An IMF delegation
made a technical visit to Lebanon in February that it described as “very
informative and productive.”
However, in the absence of a credible economic plan, the IMF is unlikely to
offer Lebanon the level of support required to see it either through its present
difficulties or to fund the fiscal stabilisation fund — estimated by former
Economy Minister Nasser Saidi to be around $20 billion — to underpin any reform
programme.Lebanon’s unique political circumstances may impede any IMF bailout.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah, which wields strong influence in the country’s
government, is unlikely to welcome what it would see as a surrender of
sovereignty over any IMF bailout.
An analysis by the global risk consultancy HIS Markit after Lebanon’s default
noted that Hezbollah “has repeatedly expressed its opposition to an
International Monetary Fund bailout and the measures it would require.” These
are said to include cutting bread subsidies, taxing fuel and raising the value
added tax.
It is possible that the government may undertake reforms without IMF support,
looking to cut spending and commence a longer-term plan of tax hikes without an
internationally funded stabilisation programme.
Credit ratings agency Fitch has suggested that Beirut might raid deposits and
savings held by the country’s banks, a possibility the government has yet to
rule out.
*Simon Speakman Cordall is a freelance writer.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on March 15-16/2020
Misinformation adds to danger of virus outbreak
/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
The coronavirus outbreak has unleashed a flurry of conspiracy theories and fake
news. With the help of social media, the unwelcome inflow of misinformation is
adding to the confusion and anxiety sparked by the epidemic.
MENA, among all parts of the world, is no stranger to conspiracy theories and to
disinformation practices. In the coronavirus crisis, conspiracy theories could
maybe alleviate fear and anguish. Illusory beliefs about impending cures and
vaccines are at times better than desperation. Elizabeth Petrun Sayers, a
behavioural and social scientist with the RAND Corporation, explained conspiracy
theories by the need to “help reduce anxiety. If folks are looking for
explanations, conspiracy theories can sometimes help them feel better.” However,
in the current global health emergency, misleading information can hinder
efforts to curtail the epidemic and further endanger the population. Since the
first days of the contagion, there were unsubstantiated charges that the
outbreak was man-made. The virus, some claimed, was maliciously manufactured as
a bioweapon. The United States, they alleged, wanted to cripple China for being
a challenging economic competitor. Others said the Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation encouraged the contamination to further vaccine sales.It did not
matter that, on March 6, US billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates was discussing
with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan the means of
global cooperation to stem the epidemic. Others pushed false and potentially
dangerous cures, such as “miracle minerals” and “drinkable silver.”Not only are
such claims not backed by science, they are potentially dangerous. They can
imperil the health of millions and distract public health authorities from their
focus. “At the WHO we’re not just battling the virus, we’re also battling the
trolls and conspiracy theories that undermine our response,” said World Health
Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.The WHO has devoted
much of its precious time to countering outlandish claims and sensationalist
accusations, some probably aimed at drawing attention and generating internet
traffic.Sarah E. Kreps, a professor of government at Cornell University, said
she considers deliberately spreading distortions to be practitioners of
“algorithmic capitalism,” in which people scare up traffic and sell against it.
That was the case it seems of the fake video of Saddam Hussein boasting about
brave Iraqis who are undaunted by coronavirus threats.
More strikingly political, however, were Tehran’s officially sanctioned
conspiracy theories. After weeks of denial of casualties, Iranian authorities
accused the United States of manufacturing the virus to harm China, then Iran.
The semi-official ISNA News Agency quoted Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying: “Today, the country is engaged in
a biological battle. “We will prevail in the fight against this virus, which
might be the product of an American biological [attack], which first spread in
China and then to the rest of the world. He added: “America should know that, if
it has done so, it will return to itself.”In a letter to UN Secretary-General
Antonio Guterres, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad echoed similar
conspiratorial thoughts. “It is clear to the world that the mutated coronavirus
was produced in lab, manufactured by the warfare stock houses of biological war
belonging to world powers,” he was quoted as saying. Conspiracy theories channel
hostility to convenient targets. For those in Tehran who believe in them, they
offer easy explanations because they are buttressed by decades of animosity
towards the United States.
For Tehran, the accusations had the added advantage of deflecting blame on
outside actors for inept handling of the epidemic. “Conspiracy theories promoted
for political gain do not kill like viruses do but, by infecting the public
discourse with false or harmful ideas, they make it harder for citizens to
ascertain the truth and hold politicians accountable,” Scott Radnitz, director
of the Ellison Centre at the University of Washington, wrote in the Guardian
newspaper. A more useful exercise for Iran and the rest of the region’s
governments would be to devote their time to the dissemination of information
that can save lives. Accurate information could have saved the lives of the 27
people or more in Iran who died from alcohol poisoning trying to protect
themselves from the coronavirus.
Iran says worsening outbreak overwhelming health
facilities..About 15% of fatalities younger than 40.
AP/March 15/2020
Iran's official leading the country's response to the worst
coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East on Sunday acknowledged that the pandemic
is overwhelming health facilities in the country.
Iran is battling one of the worst outbreaks outside China, with nearly 13,000
confirmed cases and more than 600 fatalities. The real number of infections
could be even higher, as questions have been raised about the government's
transparency. “If the trend continues, there will not be enough capacity,” Ali
Reza Zali, who is leading the campaign against the outbreak, was quoted as
saying by the state-run IRNA news agency.Iran is believed to have around 110,000
hospital beds, including 30,000 in the capital, Tehran. Authorities have pledged
to set up mobile clinics as needed. Zali also acknowledged that “many” of those
who have died from the COVID-19 illness caused by the virus were otherwise
healthy, a rare admission by local authorities that the virus does not only prey
on the sick and elderly. The Health Ministry released figures showing that while
55% of fatalities were in their 60s, some 15% were younger than 40. In Iran, the
virus has even infected a number of senior officials, including the senior vice
president, Cabinet ministers, members of parliament, Revolutionary Guard members
and Health Ministry officials. Authorities have nevertheless been slow to adopt
measures taken by other hard-hit countries. Iranian President Hassan Rohani on
Sunday ruled out a general quarantine and said the government was working to
keep the borders open. The country has also struggled to respond in part because
of crippling sanctions imposed by the Trump administration after it withdrew
from the 2015 nuclear deal. Last week, Iran asked the International Monetary
Fund for a $5 billion loan, the first time it has sought help from the
international lender since before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.The US says it has
offered humanitarian aid but that Iran has rejected it. Top figures in Tehran
has also alleged the outbreak has had a US bio-weapon origin.
Italy Hit by 368 New Coronavirus Deaths, Hospitals in
Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 15/2020
Italy on Sunday reported a one-day record death toll and leaders warned of a bed
and artificial respirator shortage in the European epicenter of the coronavirus
pandemic. Official data showed the number of fatalities shooting up by 368 to
1,809 -- more than half of all the cases recorded outside China. The Vatican
took the drastic step of cancelling Easter week celebrations that were set to
begin on April 5 as the country of 60 million braced for an extended crisis.
Only occasional joggers and a few locals carrying grocery bags could be seen on
the streets of Rome on a sunny afternoon of Italy's first weekend under
effective lockdown.
"I am not really interested in what people tell us about religion," pensioner
Roman said after the Vatican announced that its Easter observances "will take
place without the physical presence of the faithful." "I'm interested in what
people tell us about our health."
Milan's Lombardy region governor Attilio Fontana said the situation in areas
around Italy's financial capital was "getting worse." "We are close to the point
where we will no longer be able to resuscitate people because we will be out of
intensive care unit beds," Fontana told Italy's Sky TG24 channel.
"We need those machines (doctors) use to ventilate lungs, artificial respirators
that unfortunately we cannot find," Fontana said. "As soon as those respirators
arrive from abroad, we will be ready to go on the attack." The Lombardy region
has recorded 1,218 of the deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 over the past
three weeks -- more than the rest of Europe combined. The region of 10 million
-- slightly smaller but more economically productive than neighboring
Switzerland to the north -- also has 13,272 reported infections and 767 people
in intensive care.
- 'No more ambulances' -
Milan mayor Beppe Sala said he had managed to secure shipments of surgical masks
from China to help cover a growing shortage. "Milan has always had excellent
relations with the main Chinese cities and I made a few phone calls over the
past few days in search of masks," the Milan mayor said ai "The first shipment
arrived (Friday) and we will now distribute them to doctors, to our
staff."European Commission also announced the imminent delivery of one million
masks from Germany. Yet the situation remained critical despite Lombardy
enjoying a world-class healthcare system that has been consistently praised by
the World Health Organization for its level of equipment and organisation of
staff. Lombardy welfare councilor Giulio told reporters Saturday that "there are
no more ambulances" in areas around Milan. The governor of Venice's Veneto
region to the east also called on "everyone to remain in isolation" to avoid
putting hospitals under further strain. "If you do not follow the rules, the
health system will crash and I will have to impose a curfew," Veneto governor
Luca Zaia warned. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte insisted on Sunday that his
government was paying "maximum attention" to the situation in the north.
His government was set to unveil a new crisis plan that reportedly includes
family relief measures such as parental leave pay and help for the
self-employed. The government said it was also in discussion with banks about a
suspension of some family mortgage payments.
Spain, France Impose Tight Controls as Global Infections Pass 150,000
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 15/2020
France and Spain became the latest European nations to impose lockdowns, while
Australia joined New Zealand in ordering self-isolation for all arrivals Sunday
as the number of coronavirus infections around the world passed 150,000, with
nearly 6,000 deaths.
France ordered the closure of restaurants, bars, cinemas and nightclubs -- but
said food shops, pharmacies and banks would remain open, and pressed ahead with
voting for local elections on Sunday despite the virus threat. Spain imposed a
near-total nationwide lockdown, banning people from leaving home except to go to
work, get medical care or buy food. COVID-19 has so far claimed 196 lives in
Spain, making it the worst-hit European country after Italy. Prime Minister
Pedro Sanchez's wife is among those infected. In a sign of growing alarm, the
U.S. extended a travel ban on European nations to the United Kingdom and
Ireland, starting midnight on Monday. The restrictions threw airports across the
U.S. into disarray, with incoming travelers forced to wait hours for medical
screenings. U.S. President Donald Trump tested negative for the disease, having
come into contact with several members of a Brazilian presidential delegation
who have since tested positive. "One week after having dinner with the Brazilian
delegation at Mar-a-Lago, the president remains symptom-free," Trump's physician
Sean Conley said. The number of COVID-19 cases worldwide has gone past 156,000
worldwide with more than 5,800 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins
University.
Borders and airports closed A week that saw schools and businesses shut down
indefinitely, millions of travelers barred from crossing borders, celebrities
and politicians infected and the whole of Italy locked down ended with a flurry
of government announcements. Australia on Sunday announced all arrivals in the
country will face mandatory 14-day self-isolation, starting at midnight (1300
GMT Sunday). "We are going to have to get used to some changes in the way we
live our lives," said Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Trump declared a national
emergency and announced a $50 billion package, with similar measures being taken
by governments from Austria to Canada. European nations ramped up border
controls, while Chile has quarantined more than 1,300 people aboard two cruise
ships after an elderly Briton aboard one of them tested positive for the
coronavirus. Squares and streets from Milan to Madrid were deserted on Saturday
as government calls to stay at home were heeded by most. Some Italians took to
singing to each other from their windows to beat the isolation, while the
Vatican said Sunday that its traditional Easter week celebrations would be held
without worshipers. The country that saw the biggest increase over the last 24
hours was Italy, which recorded 175 deaths, while Iran had 97 and Spain 63. The
World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed Europe as the new epicenter of the
pandemic after a dramatic slump in domestic cases in China, where the virus
first emerged in December last year.
China on Sunday reported 16 new imported cases of the coronavirus, the highest
in over a week. In a bid to stop imported infections, Beijing authorities said
all international arrivals in the Chinese capital will be sent to quarantine
facilities.
Public health dilemmas
The human cost is rapidly being matched by the economic cost -- financial
markets endured a rollercoaster ride all week with spectacular losses triggered
by fears of a global recession followed by huge gains after government spending
pledges. Tech giant Apple closed all of its stores outside China until March 27
while British Airways became the latest global firm to hint at drastic action to
come, with CEO Alex Cruz telling staff to expect job losses. Airlines have
cancelled thousands of flights worldwide and some airports have shut terminals.
As economies reel and finance experts mull the impact, governments are also
facing public health dilemmas -- whether to try to stamp out the disease
entirely with drastic restrictions or try to manage its spread. British
officials have argued for trying to flatten the curve -- managing the outbreak
to push the peak of the crisis to summer when hospitals will be able to cope
better. They have said this will help create "herd immunity", though experts are
divided over whether there is evidence to support the theory. "We don't know
enough about the science of this virus, it hasn't been in our population for
long enough," said the WHO's Margaret Harris.
Football seasons curtailed
Britain had resisted imposing any major restrictions, but the media reported on
Saturday that a ban on large gatherings would come into force from next weekend.
But most other governments in affected regions have already ordered drastic
action. On Saturday, the Philippines closed off its capital Manila, Saudi Arabia
banned international flights and New Zealand said international arrivals had to
self-isolate. Africa has so far been spared the worst of the illness, but Rwanda
declared its first case on Saturday in a sign of the widening global spread and
Madagascar said it was suspending flights to Europe for a month from March 20.
Also growing was the impact on the sporting calendar, with football seasons
curtailed, Formula One races postponed and cricket tours called off. Japan was
forced to deny claims that the Tokyo Olympics could be called off after Trump
said "maybe they postpone it for a year."
Anxious France Votes in Local Elections, Defying Virus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 15/2020
France went to the polls in nationwide local elections Sunday, defying a
mounting health crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak that still risks
keeping many voters at home. President Emmanuel Macron, for whom the two-round
election is a crucial mid-term test, has insisted the polls to choose mayors and
municipal councils go ahead to assure democratic continuity in the country.
Despite fresh restrictions announced Saturday evening -- including the closure
of non-essential public places such as cafes, restaurants, cinemas and gyms --
polling stations across the country opened at 8:00 am (0700 GMT). Officials have
insisted that voting will take place under the tightest sanitary conditions,
despite widespread fear that polling stations are ideal germ-spreading venues
and a particular risk for older people. Macron said Thursday that scientists had
assured him "there is nothing to prevent the French, even the most vulnerable,
from going to the ballot box", provided everyone observes basic
infection-prevention rules. Municipalities have announced various measures to
try to keep voters infection-free, including regular disinfection of voting
booths, ensuring a safe distance between voters waiting in line, and providing
sanitising hand gels on entry and exit.
Polling stations will remain open until 1700 GMT, 1800 GMT and 1900 GMT
respectively, depending on the municipality, and a second round is scheduled to
be held on March 22.
- 'Continuity of democratic life' -Observers say many are bound to shun the
democratic exercise for fear of contamination with the virus, that has killed
dozens and infected thousands more in France alone.
A recent opinion poll said 28 percent of potential voters in France were
"concerned" about the risk posed by mingling at polling stations, often hosted
by schools. "It is important at this time, following the advice of scientists as
we have done, to ensure the continuity of our democratic life and that of our
institutions," Macron said. Some 47.7 million people are registered to vote in
some 35,000 municipalities in a country where mayors and local councillors enjoy
high popularity compared to other levels of government. The election will be a
key test for Macron, whose party swept Paris in the 2017 presidential election,
but has since lost popularity in part due to its leader's perceived autocratic
leadership style and lack of common touch. The French capital will be the main
battleground, with incumbent socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo challenged by
right-wing heavyweight Rachida Dati and Macron's candidate Agnes Buzyn -- who
was parachuted in after his chosen hopeful, Benjamin Griveaux, pulled out over a
sex-tape scandal.
'Many will be dissuaded'
Many in France have questioned the wisdom of holding the vote even as the
country indefinitely closed all creches, schools and universities, banned
gatherings of more than 100 people, and urged residents to limit their
movements. Britain on Friday postponed its own May local elections for a year
citing the coronavirus. But French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner
defended his government's decision, saying there were about 1,000 voters to
every French polling station on average. And even if the participation rate is
60 percent --- which is high -- that would mean 600 people spread over 10 to 12
hours depending on the district. The risk from voting for the elderly was no
greater "than going shopping", insisted Jean-Francois Delfraissy, chairman of
France's coronavirus science council. "It is certain that many people will be
dissuaded from voting," political historian Jean Garrigues of the University of
Orleans told AFP. Polls showed that young people -- who are not at high risk of
dying from COVID-19 -- are most likely to hold it up as a reason not to vote.
Even if this is just a pretext for the politically apathetic, it could impact
parties that young people are more likely to support -- the Greens and the
far-left France Unbowed, said Garrigues. Older people, even though they are more
motivated to vote, may end up staying away out of fear, thus robbing parties
such as the right-wing Republicans or Macron's centre-right Republic on the Move
(LREM) of votes.This means that the political repercussions of high voter
abstention among the young and the old could cancel each other out, said
Garrigues.
Russia and Turkey cut short first joint patrol along
Syria's East-West highway
Reuters/March 15/2020
Russia and Turkey were forced to cut short their first joint patrol along the M4
highway linking Syria's east and west on Sunday due to provocations by rebels
including Jihadist groups, the Russian Defence Ministry was cited as saying by
Russian news agencies. The patrol was the result of a recent agreement between
Moscow and Ankara on a ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province. "To carry out
provocations, terrorists were trying to use civilians as a human shield," the
Russian Defence Ministry was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency RIA,
explaining the reason for the shorter route. Ankara had been given more time to
neutralise the rebels who orchestrated the provocation, the ministry said. Many
of the rebels, which include a number of Jihadist groups, are backed by Turkey.
The Russian military police, who used three vehicles in Sunday's patrol, were
planning to conduct more joint patrols with Turkey on a regular basis, Russia's
Rossiya 24 TV channel said. Turkey and Russia agreed on the details of the
ceasefire in the Idlib region after four days of talks in Ankara, part of the
joint effort to halt an escalation of violence that has displaced nearly a
million people and brought Turkey and Russia closer to direct confrontation.
Syria's Brutal War Enters 10th Year
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 15/2020
Syria's brutal conflict entered its 10th year Sunday with President Bashar
al-Assad's regime consolidating its hold over a war-wracked country where
foreign powers are flexing their muscle. When Syrian anti-government
demonstrators first took to the streets on March 15, 2011, they could scarcely
have imagined their protests would turn into a complex war entangling rebels,
jihadists and outside forces. At least 384,000 people have since died, including
more than 116,000 civilians, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor
says. The war has left cities and villages in ruins, shattered the economy and
displaced more than 11 million people internally and abroad, with many seeking
refuge in neighboring countries and Europe. "We've lost everything," said one of
the displaced, Hala Ibrahim, a rights activist from Aleppo who now lives in
Idlib province, the last rebel stronghold."I left my university, my house which
was bombed," said the woman in her 30s. "Nine years of revolution illustrate the
extent of the suffering we have known, between exile, bombings and deaths."
Assad, with the military support of Russia, Iran and Lebanese militant group
Hizbullah, has clawed back control of over 70 percent of the war-torn country.
Neighboring Turkey, which supports local armed groups, has deployed its troops
across the border in Idlib province, now the last rebel bastion and refugee of
millions of displaced people.
'Collective failure'
Syria's latest fragile ceasefire came into effect there earlier this month, and
Turkish and Russian forces on Sunday kicked off joint patrols in Idlib, Russian
and Turkish media said. The first patrol was however very brief and largely
symbolic, as the route was "shortened because of provocations," Russia's defense
ministry said. An AFP correspondent, covering a protest against the patrol some
five kilometers (three miles) away, said it never arrived on that section of the
M4 highway. Around 200 protesters had gathered on the road near the town of
Nayrab, some setting tires alight or piling tree branches across the
thoroughfare.The March 5 ceasefire has for now stemmed a deadly Russia-backed
military campaign on Idlib. The assault has killed nearly 500 civilians since
December, the Observatory says, and forced nearly a million to flee their homes
and shelters, according to the United Nations.
Among those displaced, Siham Abs and seven of her children have been living for
the past two months in a camp near Bardaqli, not far from the Turkish border.
Among the tents lined up along muddy paths, Abs said she and her family would
like to wash, but don't know where.
"I am 50 years old and I've never known such difficult times," she said. Many of
those unable to find space in camps have been sleeping in fields or have sought
shelter in schools, mosques and unfinished buildings. The U.N. special envoy for
Syria, Geir Pedersen, on Saturday said the enduring war was "proof of a
collective failure of diplomacy.""The suffering of the Syrian people during this
tragic and terrible decade still defies comprehension and belief."
- 'Ruin and misery' -
The Syrian conflict was born of unprecedented anti-government demonstrations in
the southern city of Daraa. The protests spread across Syria, but a violent
crackdown soon saw rebels take up arms and wrest key areas from government
control. Jihadist groups also emerged, notably the Islamic State group which
swept across large parts of the country and neighboring Iraq in 2014. Other
foreign powers still operating in Syria include the United States whose troops,
despite an announced withdrawal last year, are still stationed in the northeast,
in a semi-autonomous Kurdish zone. And Israel regularly carries out air strikes
on Syrian, Hizbullah and Iranian military positions. The war has ravaged Syria's
economy and infrastructure. The United Nations estimated in 2018 that the
conflict had caused nearly $400 billion in war-related destruction. Over half of
all health facilities in Syria are non-functional, and two in five schools
cannot be used, the U.N. children's agency says. "Our message is clear: Stop
hitting schools and hospitals," UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said.
"Stop killing and maiming children." U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
wrote this week on Twitter that "a decade of fighting has brought nothing but
ruin and misery. "There is no military solution. Now it is the time to give
diplomacy a chance to work."
Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque shut as precaution against
Coronavirus: Islamic Waqf
NNA/Reuters/March 15/2020
Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque and Dome of the Rock will shut their doors as a
precaution against coronavirus, Islamic religious authorities said on Sunday,
while outdoor prayers will still be allowed at the complex that houses Islam’s
third holiest site. “The Islamic Waqf department decided to shut down the
enclosed prayer places inside the blessed Aqsa mosque until further notice as a
protective measure to prevent the spread of coronavirus. All prayers will be
held in the open areas of the Aqsa mosque,” the director of Al-Aqsa mosque, Omar
Kiswani told Reuters.
Israel Postpones Netanyahu Graft Trial by 2 Months over
Virus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 15/2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial has been postponed
until May 24 due to concerns about coronavirus, Jerusalem's District Court said
Sunday. Netanyahu, the first Israeli premier ever to be indicted in office, had
been scheduled to stand trial from Tuesday over alleged bribery, fraud and
breach of trust. In a statement, the court noted that given the coronavirus
pandemic it had been instructed to hear "only urgent matters". "We have decided
to postpone the first hearing (in Netanyahu's trial) until May 24," the court
said. Israel has 200 confirmed cases of the virus with tens of thousands of
people in home quarantine. Netanyahu has been charged with a range of offences
including receiving improper gifts and offering a media mogul lucrative
regulatory changes in exchange for favorable coverage. He denies
wrongdoing. Despite the indictments, Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party won the
most seats in March 2 elections and he is aiming to form a new government. But
Likud and its allies fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the
Knesset, or parliament. It was Israel's third inconclusive vote in less than a
year. Netanyahu has called on his main challenger Benny Gantz of the centrist
Blue and White party to form an emergency, national unity government to tackle
the coronavirus crisis. Gantz has said he is open to discussing the proposal,
with negotiations set for this week.
Netanyahu's challenger Gantz to form new Israeli cabinet
AP/March 15/2020
Israel's president on Sunday said he has decided to give opposition leader Benny
Gantz the first opportunity to form a new government following an inconclusive
national election this month. President Reuven Rivlin's office announced his
decision late Sunday after consulting with leaders of all of the parties elected
to parliament. The decision raises questions about Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu's political future as he leads the country's battle against the
coronavirus threat and prepares to go on trial for corruption charges.
Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the largest party in the March 2 election, Israel's
third in under a year. But with his smaller religious and nationalist allies, he
received the support of only 58 lawmakers during Sunday's consultations, leaving
Likud three seats short of the required majority in parliament.
Gantz's Blue and White received the support of parties representing 61 seats, a
slim majority. However, those parties are also divided, and it is not clear
whether Gantz will succeed in putting together a coalition. One lawmaker refused
to endorse either side. Rivlin said he would formally designate Gantz with the
task on Monday. Once formally tapped, Gantz will now have a month to cobble
together a governing coalition. Given the possibility of continued deadlock,
Rivlin summoned both Netanyahu and Gantz to an emergency meeting late Sunday.
Rivlin had earlier suggested the two men form a power-sharing unity government
to lead the country through its many crises. If the two rivals cannot reach a
unity deal, the country could find itself in a fourth consecutive election
campaign.“Anyone who has watched the news in recent days understands that this
is a time of trial, and that these are not regular consultations,” he said. “We
must now deal with forming a government as soon as possible ... at this complex
time.”
The president is responsible for designating the candidate he thinks has the
best chance of being able to form a government by securing a parliamentary
majority. That task has been complicated by the results of the March 2 election.
Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the largest single party, but short of a
61-seat parliamentary majority with its allies of smaller religious and
nationalist parties.
While Gantz is backed by a slim majority, the opposition is deeply fragmented —
with the predominantly Arab Joint. List and the ultra-nationalist Yisrael
Beitenu among them — giving Gantz slim odds of being able to cobble together a
government. Yisrael Beitenu's leader, Avigdor Lieberman, and two members of
Gantz's own Blue and White, have said they would oppose a government that relies
on support from the Joint List. Another lawmaker originally supportive of Gantz
has refused to endorse either side. Lieberman told the president that he
supports Gantz, but also called for the formation of an “emergency” unity
government to deal with the coronavirus threat.
Netanyahu, in his caretaker role, has invited Gantz to join him in an emergency
government. Gantz has left the door open to such an arrangement, but also
dismissed the offers as insincere. Facing a difficult decision, Rivlin summoned
the two men to his residence late Sunday in hopes of breaking the deadlock.
Earlier, he implored for a power-sharing unity deal. Over the past week, the
coronavirus scare has overshadowed the country's precarious political standoff —
which comes as Netanyahu prepares to go on trial for corruption charges.
Netanyahu got an important reprieve on Sunday when the Jerusalem court handling
the case postponed his trial for two months because of restrictions connected to
the coronavirus outbreak.
Netanyahu was scheduled to appear in court Tuesday to face charges of fraud,
breach of trust and accepting bribes in connection to a series of scandals. But
following the emergency health measures the government enacted restricting the
gathering of people in public places, the court announced that it was pushing
back the hearing until May 24.
Netanyahu is accused of receiving expensive gifts from wealthy friends and
offering to exchange favors with powerful media moguls. The long-ruling Israeli
leader denies any wrongdoing and says he is the victim of a media-orchestrated
witch hunt.
The trial had been scheduled to begin on Tuesday. But after Netanyahu announced
a new series of coronavirus-related restrictions late Saturday, including the
barring of gatherings of more than 10 people, the Justice Ministry announced a
state of emergency in the courts as well. Much of the country ground to a
standstill Sunday, with schools, malls and places of entertainment shut down.
Employees were encouraged to work from home and strict restrictions have been
placed on personal interactions.
The virus has spread to more than 100 countries, infected more than 150,000
people worldwide and killed more than 5,700. In Israel, some 200 people have
been infected with no casualties yet, as severe measures seem to have proven
effective so far. The coronavirus crisis has raised calls for an emergency unity
government instead. Netanyahu formally extended an offer Sunday to Gantz to join
a government aimed at at halting the spread of the virus, suggesting two
frameworks, including one that would see an alternating leadership between them
over the course of four years. Gantz's centrist Blue and White party seems to
consider the outreach yet another ruse after what has been an extremely
acrimonious campaign that included unfounded smears against Gantz.
Sudan says will mediate Egypt-Ethiopia dam row
The Arab Weekly/agencies/March 15/2020
A top Sudanese general on Sunday said his country would mediate a deal on an
escalating dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia's controversial dam
on the NileRiver.
The deputy head of Sudan's Sovereign Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, said his
country would work to bridge the gap and “reach an agreement" in the years-long
dispute.
Tensions are rising in east Africa because of the impasse between Ethiopia and
Egypt over the $4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. It's around 71%
complete and promises to provide much-needed electricity to Ethiopia’s 100
million people. Egypt fears the project — set to be Africa’s largest hydraulic
dam — could reduce its share of the Nile, the main source of freshwater for
Egypt’s population, also more than 100 million people. Dagalo’s remarks, which
were carried by Egypt's official news agency Sunday, came at the end of two-day
visit to Cairo where he met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. Sudan sits
between the Egypt and Ethiopia along the Nile's route. There has been public
disagreement between Cairo and Addis Ababa after Ethiopia did not attend the
latest round of talks over the dam on Feb. 26 inWashington. Ethiopia said it
didn't go because it needed further domestic consultations before signing a deal
with Egypt. The U.S. had crafted a draft deal after more than four months of
talks on the filling and operation of the dam, and said the final testing and
filling of the dam “should not take place without an agreement.” Egyptian
officials have raised concerns that filing the reservoir behind the dam too
quickly could significantly reduce the amount of Nile water available to Egypt.
Egypt signed the draft and urged Ethiopia and Sudan to do the same, describing
it as “fair and equitable” and in the “common interest of the three
countries.”Ethiopia dismissed the deal, and is now drafting its own proposal on
how to resolve the standoff, which will be presented to Egypt and Sudan soon,
Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said in an interview with The
Associated Press last week. Ethiopia claims that President Donald Trump, who
enjoys a warm relationship with el-Sissi, is favouring Egypt in the dispute.The
deadlock over the dam became increasingly bitter in recent weeks, with Egypt
saying it would use “all available means” to defend “the interests” of its
people. Last week, Ethiopia’s top military officers visited the site of the dam
and issued a statement vowing to “retaliate if there are any attacks on the
dam,” a veiled warning to Egypt not to try to sabotage the structure. Sudan's
government has been largely in disarray following the overthrow of the Islamist
regime of President Omar al-Bashir last year, and its infrastructure has
suffered from decades of sanctions. It's currently ruled by a joint
military-civilian government that has promised to hold elections within three
years.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
published on March 15-16/2020
Virus outbreak disrupts region's way of life, upends
politics as usual
Lamine Ghanmi/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
TUNIS/ BEIRUT - With coronavirus infections and fatalities spiking in North
Africa and the Middle East, the highly contagious outbreak is disrupting the
region's way of life and upending its politics.
The suspension of international travel and maritime shipping, along with the
sharp drop of oil prices amid stock market turbulence, has cast a dark cloud
over the region's economic prospects.
Caught in the middle are expatriate populations stranded away from home,
including 6 million of Maghrebi origin who must adjust to abrupt travel
restrictions between North Africa and Europe.
With schools closed, many of the region's young people seem destined to remain
in lockdown at home for weeks. In the scramble for solutions, online classes are
increasingly an option for students and parents anguished about the fate of
their children's education.
Lebanon, where the outbreak has been blamed for at least three deaths and more
than 77 confirmed infections, is among the region's countries exploring remote
teaching.
Albert Chamoun, media adviser at Lebanon’s Ministry of Education, noted
“discrepancies" in access to online education. "In certain (underprivileged)
areas students can’t afford access to the internet or don’t have the tools to
access the internet,” he said.
There have been many other layers of social disruption accompanying the health
crisis. With sports and culture events cancelled and coffee shops and
restaurants closed, populations are trying to cope.
Nothing illustrated more the disruption of social life in largely conservative
societies than restrictions and cancellations of religious services. In many
places, authorities called off or limited Friday prayer gatherings. Saudi Arabia
suspended pilgrimages to Islam's holiest sites, an unprecedented measure.
Politics has not been spared the fallout from the virus pandemic. The effects
played out in various ways across the region. It seems to have taken the wind
out of the sails of street protests in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, even if many
demonstrators wore protective masks as a precaution against disease as they try
to sustain their movement.
In Algeria, despite a request by Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad for protesters
to ease pressure on the government, demonstrations continued on March 13, the
56th successive Friday of protests. Protesters took to the streets in Algiers
and at least 23 other cities to press for a "total overhaul" of the regime.
In many parts of the region, there have been worries about the inadequacy of
health infrastructure and government policies along with questions about
transparency and the accuracy of official outbreak statistics. In Iran, a lack
of transparency further eroded the public's trust in the government after the
announced 611 fatalities and more than 12,000 confirmed cases were suspected to
be below the actual toll.
The pandemic added to frictions between Tehran and Arab Gulf countries. Riyadh
held Iran "directly responsible" for the spread of the COVID-19 virus worldwide
and in the kingdom because most of Saudi Arabia’s reported cases were said to
have contracted the virus during visits to Iran.
The Iranian regime is seeking outside help at the same time it has turned to
conspiracy theories to explain the mounting crisis.
In a March 13 message on his official website, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei told Army Chief-of-Staff Major-General Mohammad Bagheri that
"evidence... suggests the likelihood of this being a biological attack." Iran
expert and Arab Weekly contributor Ali Alfoneh said: "Not even a pandemic causes
Khamenei to change his bad old habits." In Israel, where 19 of virus infection
cases were reported and more than 32,000 people quarantined, the post-election
impasse was increasingly untenable. Politicians have been jolted into accepting
the possibility of a national unity government to address the health emergency.
In a televised address March 13, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said
it was necessary to form a government "to save the lives of numerous citizens."
His rival Benny Gantz said he was "willing to discuss the establishment of a
broad, national emergency government."Israeli columnist Herb Keinon noted in the
Jerusalem Post that "the coronavirus has suddenly altered life here in a way
completely unexpected. Why? Because of a feeling of a total lack of control."
Confirmed cases in the region soared beyond the 10,000 mark. Besides Iran, the
region's epicentre, Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Algeria and Morocco recorded
virus-related deaths.
*Lamine Ghanmi is a veteran Reuters journalist. He has covered North Africa for
decades and is based in Tunis.
Saudi-Russia oil showdown jolts global market
Jareer Elass//The Arab Weekly/15/2020
A price war erupting between two of the world’s largest oil-producing countries
has contributed to a historic oil market meltdown and put into question a
strategic political and economic partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The price war is inflicting pain on several casualties — the US shale industry
and shareholders of Saudi Aramco stock — and it’s early days. Crude prices
suffered their largest one-day loss in nearly 30 years on March 9, plummeting
24% as disagreement between Riyadh and Moscow over how to counter slackened
demand exacerbated by the spread of the coronavirus suddenly veered into an
all-out price war. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, and leading
independent producer Russia had led an alliance of some 24 oil-producing
countries known as OPEC+ that cooperated on collective output cuts since late
2016 to boost crude prices and stabilise oil markets. At a meeting of OPEC+
ministers March 6 in Vienna, Russia refused to accept a Saudi-led proposal
enacting a further 1.5 million barrel per day (bpd) reduction from current
levels that would be implemented for the remainder of 2020.
In leaving the Vienna gathering, Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak bluntly
said: “From April 1, neither we nor any OPEC or non-OPEC country is required to
make output cuts.” Moscow had been facing growing pressure from its state oil
firms to end constraints on their crude production.
The Russian government has been irked that the expansive US shale industry has
been a large beneficiary of OPEC+ coordination to shore up oil prices without
having to sacrifice production.
US independent shale firms were quick to announce budget cuts and reduced
domestic drilling as the Saudi-Russian price war exploded.
Riyadh’s response to Moscow’s rejection of deeper and extended cuts was swift.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco announced on March 7 its steepest cuts in 20 years
to prices for its main crude exports. The Saudi company reduced its April
official pricing for its Asia-destined crude by $4-$6 a barrel and slashed
pricing for its US customers by $7 a barrel. Saudi Aramco significantly slashed
pricing for its crude grades to north-western Europe by $8 a barrel, seeking to
undercut Russia, which places most of its Urals grade in that market.
Expressing its intent to flood oil markets, Saudi Aramco declared it would boost
output from 9.7 million bpd to a record 12.3 million bpd in April and that the
Saudi Oil Ministry had requested that it raise its crude production capacity to
13 million bpd. While the kingdom realistically may not be able to boost output
that quickly, it can draw from storage to assist in the higher oil flows. Moscow
said it would add 300,000-500,000 bpd to its production in April. The United
Arab Emirates, a staunch Saudi ally and fellow OPEC member, stated that it was
elevating its oil output by 1 million bpd to more than 4 million bpd in April.
Saudi Aramco has initiated price wars in the past, notably in 1986 and 1998, but
this price battle is different in that Saudi Aramco is no longer accountable to
just its government. Its recent initial public offering of 1.7% of the company
now makes Saudi Aramco beholden to some 5 million retail investors, the majority
of whom are Saudi.
*Jareer Elass is a Washington-based energy analyst, with 25 years of industry
experience and a particular focus on the Arabian Gulf producers and OPEC.
Erdogan's invocation of Ottoman history fools no one
Baha al-Awam/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likened the Greeks to the Nazis for the
violence the Greeks practised against migrants who crossed from Turkey seeking
asylum. Some Jews of Athens pointed out that the modern-day sultan was merely
attempting to mislead Western public opinion by hiding the truth that he was
trading with human lives for political gain.
The response was sufficient to expose Erdogan’s blackmailing of Europe. Nothing,
however, seems sufficient to stop the Turkish president from frequently
summoning up history to justify his foreign policy debacles and his intervention
in neighbouring countries and the rest of the region.
Before bringing up German Nazism to qualify the violence used by Greece to repel
the waves of illegal migrants, Erdogan used the history of the Ottoman Empire to
find justifications for his invasions of Libya and Syria. The new sultan dug
into what he saw as the golden age of his ancestors who had occupied the Arab
region for hundreds of years, hoping to find the rare gems that would persuade
the Turks that his military adventures abroad aim to revive the past glory of
their ancestors who ruled over an empire feared by all and that extended over
countries in at least three continents.
With the first deaths of Turkish soldiers in Erdogan's wars in Libya and Syria,
the illusions of past glories carefully constructed by the great magician came
tumbling down. The Turks are not buying it anymore and demand that their sultan
stops using this sham to justify his foreign military adventures and to refrain
from shedding any more Turkish blood in causes that the Turks don’t believe in.
On the contrary, they yearn for greater openness and more integration with the
world. Many still dream of joining the European Union. They’re looking for the
freedom to travel and to seek employment opportunities. They’re dreaming of
improving their country’s economy and of having the best relations with all
countries in the East and the West. By trying to revisit the Ottoman past,
Erdogan not only failed to rally Turkish public opinion to support his foreign
wars but he provided ammunition for the opposition. Many Turkish historians,
researchers and politicians opposed to autocratic rule are calling on Erdogan to
stop being selective in interpreting the history of the Ottoman Empire because
the Ottoman era included many failures, massacres, defeats and betrayals that
the Turks, before the rest of the world, see as a disgrace.Erdogan’s story with
history did not end there. His constant references to the glorious days of the
Ottomans angered the peoples in many countries who resent Erdogan’s ambitions.
In many parts of the Arab world, Ottomans are perceived as occupiers rather than
successors to a far-flung Islamic empire. Erdogan's opponents in European
countries and the West took advantage of his Ottoman rhetoric to rally people
against him.
One of the obvious results of the anti-Erdogan mobilisation was the recognition
by the legislatures of many countries around the world of the Armenian massacre
committed by the Ottomans during World War I. The latest to recognise the
massacre of the Armenians was none other than the homeland of US President
Donald Trump, who takes great pride in his friendship with Erdogan.
Erdogan’s abuse of the historical record to promote his wars and foreign
adventures reflects political frustration and bankruptcy. It exposes his bet on
a narrow group of supporters inside Turkey and followers in the Arab region.
In Turkey, Erdogan has rallied to his cause mainly his family, relatives and his
cronies from the world of business who are betting on the success of the
Erdoganian conquests to reap the spoils and establish economic colonies, money
empires and investment portfolios. As for the Arab countries, it is only the
converts to political Islam, headed by the Muslim Brotherhood, who sing the
praises of the new Ottoman expansion.
In Erdogan's wars, the Turkish Army invaded Syria several times, with operations
whose names and dates were chosen clearly referring to the Ottoman occupation of
Syria.
With respect to Libya, the sultan stood before whatever was left of his
supporters in the Justice and Development Party and recalled Ottoman leaders
killed trying to occupy that African country.
It’s always the same story. Erdogan raises storms of enthusiasm in the hearts of
his supporters by summoning the heroes of the Ottoman past but, when the storms
subside and the coffins of the Turkish soldiers start arriving in Turkey, the
real motives for the Erdogan's wars emerge.
Recently, Erdogan revealed that he offered Russian President Vladimir Putin the
management of the Syrian oil fields in Deir ez-Zor. Soon after, a Turkish
official announced an increase in the volume of Turkish investments in Libya to
$120 billion. This is in addition to reports of Libya’s gold being smuggled to
Turkey and about the balance of the Central Bank of Libya taking a one-way trip
to Ankara.
The conclusion is that the Turkish occupation does not differ from the Ottoman
occupation 500 years ago: It’s all about spoils and has no moral, legal,
humanitarian or religious justification.
At the recent summit that brought together the Russian and Turkish presidents in
Moscow to discuss the Idlib crisis in Syria, the Russians deliberately
surrounded Erdogan with paintings, sculptures and works of art directly related
to the shameful side of the Ottoman past so dear to the sultan. The Kremlin’s
messages were clear and they’re backed by a sizeable body of evidence from
history books pointing out that wherever the Ottomans passed, devastation
followed. There is a lesson to be learnt here, for time does not repeat itself.
Washington downsizes Syria policy but bridge to Damascus is
still too far
Geoffrey Aronson/The Arab Weekly/15/2020
Watching US policy in Idlib unfold is not a pretty sight and not just because of
the humanitarian catastrophe and weaponisation of refugees that define this
latest chapter in Syria’s war.
The Trump administration’s Syria policy is trapped by its contradictory
impulses. Having famously, if prematurely, demanded that “Assad must go,”
Washington now professes its down-sized goal in Syria as “a political solution
with a compromise result.”
For now, at least, the United States is committed to an outcome in Syria all but
absent from the troubled country’s own historical and political experience.
Facing such odds, Washington has proven unwilling to commit the resources
necessary to achieve it
Like Gulliver, the US effort in Syria — both on the battlefield and in the
diplomatic arena — is all but immobilised by lesser but more focused and
committed opponents. The regime and its foreign supporters are pursuing
objectives that are attainable and that reflect the essential engine of Syrian
history for the last century — the restoration, whatever the cost, of sovereign
control exercised by Damascus.
Washington, in contrast, insists that, having lost on the battlefield,
unyielding sanctions on Syria, its citizens and its foreign enablers will win
what war has failed to achieve — the end of the Bashar Assad dictatorship.
In a good, honest summary of today’s US policy, US President Donald Trump’s
Syria envoy James Jeffrey prefers not to dwell on the “starving babies” produced
by the latest round of fighting.
“This is a humanitarian catastrophe,” he acknowledged recently, “but it’s far
more than that. It is a dangerous geostrategic escalation.”
How, then, is the Trump administration confronting this strategic challenge to
US interests across the world? Since the destruction of the World Trade Centre
in New York on 9/11, the battle against “Islamic terror” has been at the heart
of US foreign and defence policy. Washington says it is in Syria as part of this
forever war.
However, in what can only be described as an extraordinary admission, it
acknowledges that the United States is giving al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
and other terror groups a pass in Idlib.
These ill-begotten sons of 9/11 — and all that remains of the armed Syrian
opposition that was once Washington’s best hope — are fighting for their lives
in Idlib against a coalition led by Moscow. In Washington today, the enemy (HTS)
of my enemy (Assad) has been transformed into my erstwhile Syrian friend.
Jeffrey admitted that “in our various counterterrorism strikes into Idlib, we
haven’t targeted [HTS — an offshoot of al-Qaeda] because we do not see them
focused on international terror. Rather, they are focused on fighting the Assad
regime (author’s emphasis)… They’re certainly not a terrorism priority for us.”
During the Trump administration, Washington often speaks in many voices. So it
is no surprise that a US Central Command spokesman offered a contrasting and
less benign view of these groups effectively allied to the United States: “All
of them are a nuisance, a menace and a threat to… hundreds of thousands of
innocent civilians who are just trying to make it through the winter.”
Indeed.
Trump’s global reassessment of 9/11 also includes the Taliban, who hosted
al-Qaeda as it planned the strikes on New York and the Pentagon and continues to
battle to defeat Washington’s squabbling favourites in Kabul. One would think
the Trump White House could also summon a similar realpolitikal will to end its
losing war against the regime in Damascus. However, even as it makes an
uncomfortable peace with HTS and the Taliban, a deal with Assad remains a bridge
too far. Washington denigrates the Russian-led effort to defeat HTS and its
like-minded friends ruling an ever-shrinking piece of north-western Syria. It
suggests that, even as Washington spares al-Qaeda so it may continue the fight
against Damascus, Moscow exploits its presence as an excuse to terrorise
long-suffering Syrians.
Notwithstanding this American charge, Moscow has built an unrelenting and
effective military strategy from Daraa to Idlib around the global consensus that
views the battle against HTS/al-Qaeda and their like-minded factions as
legitimate.
The Russians are certainly no angels but their efforts at least have the
advantage of coherence. Russia’s ceasefire memorandum with Turkey reaffirms the
legitimacy of the campaign against the Islamists and Turkey’s continuing, if
unfulfilled, commitment to contain them.
Washington cannot bring itself to endorse this latest milestone in Russia’s
effort since 2015 to establish a working military coalition against Assad’s
opponents. The latest ceasefire in Idlib represents another limited but
inexorable step on the long road to resolving the war and re-establishing the
sovereign authority of the central government in Damascus. This process is far
from perfect but it has the advantage of establishing an effective road map for
ending the war.
Would that Washington have been able to do the same.
*Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in
Washington.
Iran regime’s coronavirus misinformation campaign
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 15/2020
Some people believe that Iran has become the center of the coronavirus outbreak
not only in the Middle East, but also throughout the world. If we take a look at
the official numbers, Iran comes third, after China and Italy. Iran’s Health
Ministry on Sunday announced that 724 people had died as a result of the
COVID-19 outbreak in the country, adding that almost 14,000 people had been
infected. But we should take Iran’s official numbers with a grain of salt and
not be fooled by the misinformation that the Iranian regime is providing to the
public.
Credible reports from inside Iran reveal a different story of what the country
is actually going through. For example, based on information from a nationwide
intelligence network, the Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance
of Iran (NCRI), has concluded that the number of people who have died in Iran
because of the virus has already exceeded 3,000. The group’s president-elect
Maryam Rajavi said: “On the orders of the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
the regime kept the public in the dark about the outbreak of the coronavirus and
refrained from taking timely preventive measures, because Khamenei did not want
to impact the turnout of the 1979 revolution anniversary on Feb. 11 and the
parliamentary election masquerade.”
Intriguingly, the regime’s own officials are increasingly contradicting each
other, which also points to the regime’s lies and persistent efforts to hide the
real information from the public. For example, Mohammed Hossein Ghorbani, the
health minister’s plenipotentiary representative in Gilan Province, last week
reported: “The coronavirus death toll in Gilan is 200; with 800-900 infected.”
This is the death toll for only one province.
In addition, Mostafa Faghihi, the owner of the Entekhab newspaper, which is
affiliated with the hard-line political camp of the regime, stated last week
that the real number of those who had died in the whole country was more than
2,000. He complained in a tweet: “Mr. (Health Minister Saeed) Namaki, you aren’t
releasing the actual numbers of the dead of coronavirus? Fine. I will play my
part instead of you. Dear Iranian citizens. The number of dead in the country
that are feared to have died of the coronavirus is nearly 2,000 (10 times more
than the official figures). Over 130 people died just yesterday in Tehran and in
Gilan. Mr. Namaki, don’t pour more salt (a reference to Namaki’s name, which
means salt merchant in Farsi) on the public’s wounds.”
Faghihi’s statistics were similar to those provided by the NCRI. However, a few
hours after posting the tweet, he deleted it, most likely because of the
pressure the regime’s authorities imposed on him. Faghihi then posted another
tweet stating that he had made a mistake, and that what he meant was that more
than 2,000 had died of influenza and not of the coronavirus.
People in 139 cities in 31 provinces have been infected so far, according to the
NCRI. Qom, Gilan, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, Golestan, Mazandaran, Fars,
Khuzestan, Kurdistan, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Zanjan appear to have the most
deaths.
Some of Iran’s health authorities, which previously urged the regime to lock
down the province of Qom, are now calling for the government to lock down other
provinces before it is too late. The head of a hospital in Tehran’s Yaftabad
district showed his frustration by saying: “If we had limited the travel of
people in Qom, since the epicenter of the illness is in Qom, the spread would
not have been so extensive. You look at the map and you will see that it spread
to neighboring provinces from Qom… In fact, our mistake was that when we
discovered that the contamination is in the city of Qom, we should have
quarantined the people there and prevented its spread. If we had done so, the
virus would not have spread.”
Some of Iran’s health authorities are calling for the government to lock down
other provinces before it is too late.
Unfortunately Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which is chaired by the
so-called moderate President Hassan Rouhani, continues to reject such calls and
persists with downplaying the crisis. Rouhani, who has been appearing less and
less in public or on media outlets, has declined to accept the gravity of the
issue, saying that “everyone will have to resume work and production as of next
week” because “life will be back to normal.”
The international community must condemn the Iranian regime for misreporting the
figures, misinforming the public and covering up the spread of the coronavirus
in Iran.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading
expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the
International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Turkey’s vacillation weakening its position
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 15/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week paid a one-day visit to
Brussels to talk to top officials from the EU and NATO. He spoke to Charles
Michel, the President of the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen, President
of the European Commission, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
The visit came soon after Turkey decided it would no longer stop refugees from
crossing into Europe, so refugee-related issues were an important agenda item.
urkey has reportedly spent more than $45 billion on Syrian refugees alone.
Erdogan raised this issue with the EU officials and reminded them of the
outstanding money the bloc owes to Turkey in exchange for it stemming the flow
of refugees into Europe. Out of the €6 billion ($6.6 billion) promised in 2016,
only €4.7 billion has so far been committed and €3.2 billion effectively paid.
So there is a €1.3 billion balance outstanding.
He also asked them to raise additional funds for the Idlib refugees because this
is a new phenomenon and it has to be dealt with as a separate issue. The EU
acknowledged the €1.3 billion shortfall, but did not respond positively to the
new demand.
Erdogan used the refugee issue as an overture for his talks with the EU
officials because he knew they would not turn a deaf ear to what he had to say
on this subject. Then he turned to other EU-related subjects, namely the
revitalization of Turkey’s accession process, visa facilitation for Turkish
citizens, and the updating of Turkey’s customs union agreement with the bloc.
On the revitalization of the accession process, the EU leaders responded with as
plain words as possible that Turkey’s image needed serious improvement and that
major reforms were needed in the fields of fundamental rights and freedoms, and
the independence of the judiciary. This was a good opportunity for Erdogan to
hear these shortcomings from the horse’s mouth.
On visa facilitation, Turkey was expected to fulfill 72 criteria. It has
fulfilled 66 but has problems with the remaining six. They include the
definition of terror in the Turkish penal code; agreement on the protection of
personal data; cooperation on penal and legal matters; fighting corruption; and
an agreement for the readmission to Turkey of refugees that do not qualify to
enter EU countries. The most important among these is the definition of terror
in the Turkish penal code. EU law says that the nonviolent expression of opinion
cannot be considered as a punishable act, while Turkish legislation considers
such expressions acts of terror.
The issue of the updating of Turkey’s customs union agreement with the EU had
already been settled in 2016 and the EU had agreed to take action, but it is
still being kept on the shelf with no reasonable explanation. The postponement
of the updating of this agreement is causing economic loss to Turkey because the
exported goods of third countries with which the EU has signed a customs union
agreement can enter the Turkish market without customs duty, while Turkey has to
pay when it exports goods to the same third countries.
The issues that Erdogan raised in Brussels indicate that Turkey has now woken up
to rediscovering the merits of the EU accession process. Until recently, Turkey
was in the mood of saying: “If you don’t want Turkey to become an EU member,
tell us, so that we can go our own way.” This time, Turkey avoided such a
narrative.
Erdogan used the refugee issue as an overture for his talks with the EU
officials because he knew they would not turn a deaf ear to what he had to say
on this subject.
Erdogan’s visit to Brussels also came soon after his trip to Moscow, where he
could not obtain what he expected. Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated
that he would continue his fight against terrorist groups in Idlib, which will
restrain Turkey’s efforts to protect the fighters that it considers to be
moderate.
With this visit to Brussels, Turkey now seems to have turned back to the
Euro-Atlantic community that it has unnecessarily antagonized for more than a
decade. The vacillating policy between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community
may weaken Turkey’s hand with both camps, so it has to develop a policy that
will give confidence to both. It is only at that time that Turkey may strengthen
its position on both fronts.
Turkey wants to get NATO support and protection in the military operations it
plans to carry out in Idlib. NATO has refrained from supporting Turkey within
Syrian territory, but said it could provide intelligence and missiles fired from
Turkey. To what extent such an attitude would be compatible with Turkey’s
cooperation with Russia remains a difficult question.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the
ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Iran’s puppets pushing Iraq into failed statehood
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 15/2020
Is Iraq on course to becoming a failed state? The Kataib Hezbollah militants
(part of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi) who killed several coalition troops last week are
closely allied to Iran, as well as to powerful elements within Iraq’s
parliament. This is just one of many warning signs of how Iraq is devolving from
nation state to a warring cluster of paramilitary fiefdoms under Iranian
hegemony.
Iraqis demand effective governance and an end to institutionalized corruption.
Yet, whoever is appointed to the premiership faces insurmountable pressures to
dole out ministries among clientelistic factions as lucrative cash cows and
sources of employment for unqualified foot soldiers. Prime minister-designate
Mohammed Allawi was angrily rejected by Iraq’s Shiite-majority protest movement,
yet he tried and failed to cobble together a government anyway. The fragmented
outcomes of the 2018 elections make it well-nigh impossible for any candidate to
gain a functional majority. The Shiite political house is intransigently
divided, with diametrically opposed views on fundamental issues like ties with
Iran and the demobilization of militias.
Following America’s killing of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in
January, cleric and political kingpin Muqtada Al-Sadr has avariciously sought to
become the dominant beneficiary of Iranian patronage. Overnight, he flip-flopped
from patron of the protest movement to dispatching his foot soldiers to crush
the uprising. Given Al-Sadr’s political weight, this has tipped the balance of
power among the Shiite camp decisively in Iran’s favor.
With the latest deadline for the selection of a new prime ministerial candidate
about to expire, a seven-person committee — monopolized by the principal Shiite
factions — has taken upon itself the challenge of government formation. Iranian
National Security Council secretary Ali Shamkhani has, over the past couple of
weeks, been in Baghdad helping steer this process, while also seeking to
consolidate Iranian control over Al-Hashd paramilitary factions and agitating
for the eviction of US forces. Just as in Lebanon, lengthy periods of political
paralysis have become the norm, while self-serving parliamentary factions
wrangle over government positions.
Shamkhani is one of a succession of senior Iranian and Hezbollah personnel who —
post-Soleimani — have sought to restore order among Tehran’s brood of
transnational proxy militia forces. While the nominal loyalty to Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei of Al-Hashd militias like Kataib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq is
unquestioned, in the absence of assertive leadership this plurality of entities
(on paper there are about 60 factions) consume their energies in turf battles.
Although these militias were initially mobilized and armed by Iran, since 2014
they have principally been bankrolled by Iraq’s state budget (to the tune of
about $2.1 billion annually). Staggering under the burden of US sanctions,
Iranian largesse has diminished further. These militias have consequently
mutated into criminal networks, carving out territories throughout Iraq’s cities
and provinces, extorting money from citizens and businesses, along with other
revenue-generating enterprises like drugs, arms, prostitution, oil smuggling,
money laundering and much more besides. Like Latin American drug cartels, these
forces threaten to outgun the state, terrorizing citizens and battling to
establish themselves as the de facto powers throughout Iraq. In recent months,
these unaccountable militias were mobilized to kill hundreds of protesters.
Since 2003, it has been Tehran’s foreign policy priority to dominate Iraq, while
keeping it weak and politically fragmented. Hezbollah was established as the
unrivaled agent of Iranian hegemony in Lebanon. Conversely, in Iraq, Tehran
nurtured a plethora of rival Shiite militias and political factions, which dance
to Iran’s tune while nursing conflicting agendas and bitter rivalries.
Meanwhile, there has been negligible progress in rebuilding cities following the
Daesh conflict. In Mosul alone, about 138,000 homes were severely damaged. Major
displaced peoples’ camps in Nineveh province have been forcibly closed, with
some 186,000 people departing these camps during 2019, often with no habitable
homes to return to. This has major implications for the rehabilitation of Sunni
communities. Unemployment is sky-high, families have lost everything. They often
encounter institutional obstacles to obtaining citizenship documents for
receiving basic services — faced with the broad-brush stigma of Daesh
association. If these communities fail to be treated as citizens by an
administration that is widely perceived (not unjustifiably) as having sectarian
Shiite and pro-Iran leanings, this bodes ill for Iraq’s future coherence. While
the socioeconomic situation of Kurdistan is arguably better, integration with
the Iraqi state is even weaker.
Provocations by Iran and its proxy elements against international targets during
2019 often went unanswered, which emboldened the ayatollahs further. US
President Donald Trump appears to have learned from this mistake. The strike
against Soleimani constituted a major psychological shock for Tehran, while the
US’ responses to the latest missile strikes make it crystal clear that the rules
of the game have changed: Iran and its franchises can no longer strike foreign
targets with impunity.
Iran has nurtured a plethora of rival Shiite militias and political factions,
which dance to its tune while nursing conflicting agendas.
Iraq’s authorities do nothing to restrain these militias from striking foreign
personnel, many of whom are fulfilling a necessary role assisting Iraqi forces
in seeking to halt Daesh’s re-emergence. Yet, when the US responds to these
attacks — targeting militants on Iran’s payroll — Iraqi leaders wake up and
begin issuing noisy condemnations and threats to refer the issue to the UN;
reminding us how so many senior politicians are effectively in Tehran’s pocket.
Iraq has long since ceased functioning as a sovereign state. It is increasingly
devolving into an ungoverned arena where Iran’s playthings jostle for control,
expending Iraqi lives to further the policy agenda of a foreign nation with
hostile intentions. Iraq does not have a functioning government, a coherent
national identity, primacy of the armed forces, or uncontested sovereignty.
Furthermore, amid the perfect storm of mass protests, coronavirus, declining oil
prices and macroeconomic mismanagement, Iraq’s economy is in deep trouble.
Iraq has already plunged over the precipice into civil conflict several times in
the past two decades. Without urgent intervention in support of cross-sectarian,
nationalist and effective governance, it will only be a matter of time before
the international community is compelled to go in and pick up the pieces all
over again.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.