LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 13/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
But if you had known what this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 12/01-14: “At that time Jesus went through the cornfields on the sabbath; his disciples were hungry, and they began to pluck heads of grain and to eat. When the Pharisees saw it, they said to him, ‘Look, your disciples are doing what is not lawful to do on the sabbath.’He said to them, ‘Have you not read what David did when he and his companions were hungry? He entered the house of God and ate the bread of the Presence, which it was not lawful for him or his companions to eat, but only for the priests.Or have you not read in the law that on the sabbath the priests in the temple break the sabbath and yet are guiltless? I tell you, something greater than the temple is here. But if you had known what this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless. For the Son of Man is lord of the sabbath.’ He left that place and entered their synagogue; a man was there with a withered hand, and they asked him, ‘Is it lawful to cure on the sabbath? ’ so that they might accuse him. He said to them, ‘Suppose one of you has only one sheep and it falls into a pit on the sabbath; will you not lay hold of it and lift it out?How much more valuable is a human being than a sheep! So it is lawful to do good on the sabbath.’Then he said to the man, ‘Stretch out your hand.’ He stretched it out, and it was restored, as sound as the other. But the Pharisees went out and conspired against him, how to destroy him.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 12-13/2020
Father Majdi Allawi, takes to the skies to ‘bless and protect’ the country against coronavirus/The New Arab/March 12/2020
Seven new coronavirus cases confirmed in Lebanon, total 66
Lebanon, Algeria Register Coronavirus Deaths
Lebanon Records 3rd Coronavirus Death
Iraq stops flights to India and Lebanon over coronavirus fears
MP Says Coronavirus Testing Should be ‘Free’ for All Lebanese
Standard & Poor's Downgrades Lebanon's Rating to 'Selective Default'
Aoun Meets Kubis
Hasan Lauds 'Civil Health Emergency', Araji Says 8 Hospitals being Prepared
Govt. Boosts Internet for Citizens to Stay Home over Coronavirus
Lebanese Cabinet convenes at Baabda Palace: Freeing 39 million USD from a World Bank loan to equip governmental hospitals against Corona
Diab discusses with World Bank delegation common projects, chairs financial meeting
Diab heads meeting at Grand Serail over coronavirus developments
Berri tackles developments with new US Ambassador, UN’s Kubis, Zasypkin
Murtada tackles bilateral relations with Indonesian Ambassador
Hassan, UNICEF Representative tackle joint projects
Hariri: Fight coronavirus away from politics and outbidding
Four injured in stabbing incident in northeast London - police
Virus-Hit Iran Asks IMF for Its First Loan since 1962
Hariri to Officials: Fight Coronavirus Away from Politics
Jumblat Says Lebanon Must Seek IMF Aid, Cites Iran Move
IMF Urges Lebanon to 'Quickly' Implement Economic Reforms
LibanPost Launches Passport, Residency Card and Municipality Fee Services
If Iran can call on the IMF, why can’t Hezbollah in Lebanon?/Sulaiman Hakemy/The National/March 12/2020
Lebanon needs its friends as state disintegrates/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 12/2020
Lebanon set to legalise medical, industrial cannabis cultivation/Timour Azhari/AlJazeera/March 12/2020
As Lebanon grapples with economic collapse and a coronavirus outbreak, refugees appeal for international help/Abby Sewell/The New Arab/March 12/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 12-13/2020
Three US personnel killed, 12 injured in rocket attack on Iraqi base
US-led airstrikes target Kata’ib Hezbollah positions in Iraq’s Babylon
Twenty-six Iraqi fighters killed in east Syria strike
UK’s Raab demands action to find perpetrators of Iraq attack
Iraqi politicians, UN condemn attack on US troops in Baghdad
US Congress passes final resolution to restrain Trump on Iran
CP NewsAlert: Sophie Gregoire Trudeau tests positive for COVID-19: PMO
Canada PM Working from Home as Wife Tested for COVID-19
How the Brotherhood & Iran Have Infiltrated Canada
Coronavirus: Iran confirms 1,075 new cases in past 24 hours
Iran underreporting coronavirus cases: Head of US Central Command
Top adviser to Iran’s Khamenei infected with coronavirus
Iran unveils Soleimani statue in city with highest coronavirus deaths
Iran Asks for IMF Loan as Number of Virus Infections Shoot Up
Brazilian Official who Met Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19
Tehran Agrees to Hand Over Downed Jet's Black Boxes to Ukraine
Trauma and Sadness: U.N. Investigators Reflect on 9-Year Syria Probe
East Syria Strike Kills 26 Iraqi Fighters
Syria War Enters 10th Year With No Hope in Sight
Iraq Fears Escalation after Deadly Rocket Cttack, Air Strike
Sudan: FBI to Assist Investigate PM Assassination Attempt
Sadr Says Trump Made Coronavirus, Rejects Any US Treatment

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 12-13/2020
The Oil Price Crash: Bad News for Putin's Ambitions in the Middle East/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/March 12/2020
Iran is Politicizing Coronavirus as a Conspiracy/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
The Coronavirus May Be Worse Than a Natural Disaster/Anjani Trivedi/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
The US-UK Alliance Could Soon Get Much Weaker/Eli Lake/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
The US-UK Alliance Could Soon Get Much Weaker/Eli Lake/Bloomberg/March 12/2020
What is Biden Thinking about the Middle East?/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 12/2020
Is Iran behind rocket attack that killed US-led Coalition forces in Iraq?/Seth J. Frantzman/March 12/2020
World must adapt to changes brought about by coronavirus/Maria Hanif Al-Qassim, Asma I. Abdulmalik and Sara Al-Mulla/Arab News/March 12/2020
Crisis looms as Iran unable to afford its proposed budget/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 12/2020
Since agreement with U.S., Taliban has attacked Afghan forces in 27 of 34 provinces/Bill Roggio/FDD/March 12/2020
Al Qaeda’s West African branch seeks French withdrawal, then negotiations/Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/March 12/2020
In the Middle East, it’s the Qom Virus, thanks to Iran’s incompetence/Jordan Schachtel/Al Arabiya/March 12/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 11-12/2020
الأب مجدي علاوي استأجر طائرة خاصة وحلق فوق بلدات وقرى ومدن لبنان وقام وهو يصلي ويرتل ويرشها (بالماء المصلى عليه) المبارك كنسياً ويطلب من الله حماية لبنان واللبنانيين من وباء فيروس الكورونا
Father Majdi Allawi, takes to the skies to ‘bless and protect’ the country against coronavirus
The New Arab/March 12/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/84107/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%a8-%d9%85%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%a3%d8%ac%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%b5%d8%a9-%d9%88%d8%ad%d9%84/
Father Majdi Allawi, a Maronite priest, took to the skies over the weekend. A Lebanese priest has hired a private plane to fly over and bless the country to protect it from an outbreak of coronavirus.
Majdi Allawi, a Maronite priest, took to the skies over the weekend and prayed for God to watch over and protect Lebanon, local media reported.
Equipped with a cross, a statue of the Blessed Virgin Mary, and a monstrance, the priest flew over Beirut and surrounding areas for two hours as he “pleaded with the Lord to protect Lebanon”, media reported.
Allawi said the flight was designed to “bless the country, protect the homeland, and heal those who have been infected by the virus”.
Lebanon reported its third death related to the new coronavirus on Thursday, and has halted flights from countries most affected by the virus.
Public and private sectors have been receiving painful strikes as the country passes through its worst economic and financial crisis in decades, and the virus is the latest blow.
The country’s restaurant association said all eateries around the country will be closed until further notice, though delivery services would continue.
Religious groups have also taken measures to stop the virus from spreading, with some more unorthodox than others.
Suspending centuries-old tradition, Maronite priests are administering the Holy Communion by placing the wafer into the hands of worshipers rather than directly onto the tongue.
Churchgoers have also been encouraged not to greet each other with handshakes, while holy water fonts have been emptied and hand-sanitisers dispensers set up.
In a more controversial measure, some Christian worshipers have been delivering a mixture of holy water and soil from the grave of Saint Charbel Makhlouf to the Rafik Hariri Hospital in Beirut where dozens of infected patients are being treated.
Saint Charbel is widely believed by both Christians and Muslims to have miraculous healing properties for those who visit his tomb.
For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.
The vast majority of people recover from the new virus. According to the World Health Organisation, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.
In mainland China, where the virus first emanated from, more than 80,000 people have been diagnosed and more than 58,000 have so far recovered.

Seven new coronavirus cases confirmed in Lebanon, total 66
Souad El Skaf, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 13 March 2020
Lebanon reported seven new confirmed cases of the deadly coronavirus, raising the total number of recorded cases in the country to 66 on Thursday, according to the Ministry of Public Health which also reported the country’s third death due to the virus. The Lebanese Minister of Public Health Hamad Hassan said that eight government hospitals have been equipped to increase the capacity to deal with additional cases.The National News Agency (NNA) citing a daily report issued by Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut said the hospital alone has at its isolation unit 38 confirmed cases. “during the past 24 hours, 158 cases in the emergency unit designated to receive cases suspected of being infected with the disease, whereby 17 of them had to be admitted to the quarantine section while the rest adhered to home quarantine,” read the hospital’s statement carried by the news agency. It added “Laboratory tests were conducted over 206 cases, 199 of which were negative and 7 positive.” the Hospital report indicated. It also disclosed that 19 cases that were held in quarantine were released today,” after their test results came out negative. Fourteen cases are currently present in the quarantine section. The Hospital added that the health condition of coronavirus cases is stable, except for 2 in critical condition, all of whom receiving the necessary care in the isolation unit. In a related development Restaurants, cafes, shopping malls and shops across the country shut their doors to customers on Thursday. Meanwhile, former PM Saad Hariri said that the situation cannot tolerate any outbidding, and that fighting coronavirus requires the utmost seriousness. He stressed that the mistakes that have occurred are now behind us, and what is in front of us is only the mobilization of all efforts within the State, health institutions and civil society to fight the epidemic. He said on Twitter: “The danger of the virus does not depend on the sectarian and political identity, and if the health requirements necessitate strict measures to control land crossings and to place a neighborhood or region where the virus is found in quarantine, we should not hesitate. The world has declared a state of emergency, from America to China and Italy. What is needed is to isolate government decisions from politics.” He added: “This is an opportunity to praise the medical staff and all the employees of the Rafic Hariri University Hospital, the Lebanese Red Cross and all the health institutions that established spaces dedicated to fight the epidemic,” according to a statement issued by Hariri press office and was carried by NNA.

Lebanon, Algeria Register Coronavirus Deaths
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
A third Lebanese man has died from the coronavirus, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Thursday. The 79-year-old had cancer, it said.According to the state-run National News Agency the man's immune system was impaired. Local media reported that the virus was transmitted to him from the first man who had died in Lebanon earlier this week. The Health Ministry said the number of infections stands at 61. Outside of Iran, only Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon have recorded deaths from the virus in the Middle East. Iran has one of the world's worst death tolls outside of China, the epicenter of the outbreak. Algeria has registered its first death from the novel coronavirus, the Health Ministry announced on Thursday. No further details on the death were provided in the ministry statement, cited by the official APS press agency. Another five new cases of COVID-19 have been recorded, bringing the total number of confirmed cases on Algerian soil to 24, the ministry added. A 25th case -- and the first registered in the country -- concerns an Italian who tested positive in February but who has since left Algeria. Of the five new cases announced on Thursday, two are Algerians who had been in France. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country, reported seven more cases late Wednesday, bringing the country’s total number of cases to 67. In the southern tourist-driven city of Luxor, 70 Egyptian workers and guides remained in quarantine on a Nile cruise ship called the Asara. Earlier this week, 83 foreign tourists left quarantine on the ship and flew home week after testing negative for the virus.

Lebanon Records 3rd Coronavirus Death
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Lebanon on Thursday recorded its third coronavirus death one day after the country received a flight from Iran despite the Cabinet announcement that flights from countries hit hardest by the novel virus were suspended. Lebanon has recorded 66 cases of COVID-19 according to the health ministry. NNA said the man's immune system was impaired because he had cancer. Local media reported the man was 79 years old and that the virus was transmitted to him from the first man who had died in Lebanon earlier this week. Prime Minister Hassan Diab said Wednesday that Lebanon would suspend all trips to and from Italy, South Korea, Iran and China, the hardest hit countries. It would also stop arrivals from France, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, he said. Lebanese and their families, diplomats, employees of international organisations, as well as UN peacekeepers would still be allowed in, the premier added. After four days, all trips from those countries would be suspended, Diab said, without specifying the precise date.

Iraq stops flights to India and Lebanon over coronavirus fears
Reuters/Friday, 13 March 2020
Iraqi Airlines announced on Thursday it would stop all flights to India and Lebanon over the coronavirus outbreak, the state news agency reported. The statement from the company added that evacuation flights from India will be excluded from this decision, and March 15 will be the last day for Iraqis in Lebanon to return. On Thursday, Lebanon reported seven new confirmed cases of the deadly coronavirus, raising the total number of recorded cases in the country to 66, according to the Ministry of Public Health which also reported the country’s third death due to the virus. Coronavirus continues spread across Middle East and North Africa with over 1,600 infected across the region. The coronavirus first started spreading from Wuhan, China, earlier this year and has since infected nearly 90,000 people, with over 3,000 dead.

MP Says Coronavirus Testing Should be ‘Free’ for All Lebanese
Naharnet/March 12/2020
Lebanon’s National Social Security Fund set the cost of testing for coronavirus at 150,000 Lebanese pounds, a move criticized by many including MP Qassem Hashem who said it should be free for all. “Although the steps taken by the government and health ministry are good and necessary to limit the spread of coronavirus epidemic, making citizens pay the cost of laboratory testing amounting to 150,000 Lebanese pounds in these circumstances can not be accepted,” the Development and Liberation parliamentary bloc MP said in a tweet. Hashem said the testing “must be free and available for all,” stressing the need to “reconsider” the decision. On Wednesday, NSSF General Director, Mohamad Karaki issued a memorandum setting the cost of the testing, and saying it was taken “pursuant to the memorandum issued by the Minister of Health (Hamad Hassan) No. 48 of 10 March 2020.”

Standard & Poor's Downgrades Lebanon's Rating to 'Selective Default'
Naharnet/March 12/2020
Standard & Poor's Global Ratings downgraded Lebanon's sovereign debt in foreign currency to a "selective default" from (CC / C), warning that talks on debt restructuring may be complicated and prolonged.
Standard & Poor's said it would likely cancel this designation whenever Lebanon exchanges any debt or activates a restructuring agreement between Lebanon and its creditors.

Aoun Meets Kubis
Naharnet/March 12/2020
President Michel Aoun received UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis at Baabda Palace, the National News Agency reported on Thursday. NNA said the two men’s meeting came ahead of the report that Kubis would submit to the UN Secretary-General in the coming days on Lebanon’s action to address its economic crisis.
“The government is working at a rapid pace to implement the reform plan that deals with debt restructuring, banks, financial and administrative reform, in addition to the social and economic plan,” NNA quoted Aoun as telling Kubis. The UN envoy to Lebanon had earlier reiterated that the government must take its own steps to mitigate the economic crisis before any outside help.
He had said that "the conditions are reforms, reforms, reforms," and that "the new government will come with a clear action plan with deadlines, and then, we will try to help, but it must start with the work of the government," Kubis had said. On coronavirus, Aoun said during the meeting held in the presence of ex-minister Salim Jreissati: “The government is taking all appropriate measures to combat coronavirus and limit its spread through preventive measures taken on more than one level.”

Hasan Lauds 'Civil Health Emergency', Araji Says 8 Hospitals being Prepared
Naharnet/March 12/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced Thursday that the country’s anti-coronavirus committee had declared Wednesday what resembles a "civil health emergency," stressing that “the Lebanese people enjoy awareness” regarding the COVID-19 coronavirus.
Responding to a reporter’s question, Hasan said Lebanon cannot declare an official state of emergency seeing as that would harm daily income workers. Speaking at the same press conference, the head of the health parliamentary committee, MP Assem Araji, said ten centers for coronavirus lab tests will be set up in the various regions. He also announced that eight state-run hospitals are being prepared to receive coronavirus cases. Lebanon has so far confirmed 66 coronavirus cases among them three fatalities. On Wednesday, the country closed restaurants and cafes and announced the suspension of flights from 11 virus-hit nations, giving Lebanese citizens a four-day deadline to return from seven countries. Educational institutions, sport clubs, nightclubs, pubs and other gathering venues had been closed since several days.

Govt. Boosts Internet for Citizens to Stay Home over Coronavirus
Naharnet/March 12/2020
The Lebanese government on Thursday decided to “double the speed and quotas of internet services” in order to encourage citizens to stay home amid a local and global coronavirus outbreak. During a cabinet session held in Baabda, the government also decided to utilize a $39 million loan from the World Bank to equip state-run hospitals in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. It also called on international organizations to “shoulder their responsibilities as to providing health care and the necessary preventative services to displaced Syrians and Palestinian refugees.”
As for the internet decision, the information minister said it will apply to OGERO subscribers and will run until the end of April. Prime Minister Hassan Diab meanwhile told Cabinet that “the number of virus infections in Lebanon is among the lowest in the world,” decrying what he called “political exploitation and a systematic intimidation campaign against the government.”Lebanon has so far confirmed 66 coronavirus cases among them three fatalities. On Wednesday, the country closed restaurants and cafes and announced the suspension of flights from 11 nations, giving Lebanese citizens a four-day deadline to return from seven countries. Educational institutions, sport clubs, nightclubs, pubs and other gathering venues had been closed since several days.

Lebanese Cabinet convenes at Baabda Palace: Freeing 39 million USD from a World Bank loan to equip governmental hospitals against Corona
NNA/March 12/2020
The Cabinet convened today at the Presidential Palace, in a session chaired by President Michel Aoun and attended by Prime Minister, Hassan Diab and Ministers.
Cabinet decisions were to release the loan provided by the World Bank for Governmental hospitals to confront Corona, which is valued 39 Million US Dollars. The Cabinet also requested international organizations to assume responsibilities in terms of caring for the displaced Syrians and Palestinian refugees, to provide necessary healthcare and proactive services, to fight Corona.
In addition, the Council of Ministers also decided to double internet speed and consumption volume for the final and insured internet subscribers on OGERO network, for free until end of April.
At the beginning of the session, President Michel Aoun stressed the necessity to continue taking preventive measures to limit spread. The President also welcomed the assistance which could be provided to Lebanon in this sense.
Prime Minister, Hassan Diab stated that "The number of infections in Lebanon, till now, is among the lowest in any country worldwide, numerically speaking, or in relative to population. It is true that the number of infected individuals may rise, however this is a global situation that worldwide countries have not been able to prevent. Lebanon is not an isolated island".
"The positive results of the suspension of the repayment of Eurobonds began to be translated quickly. The Finance Minister informed us about the decrease in debt service securities in Lebanese pounds by 2.24%, roughly equivalent to around 300 Billion Pounds. This is a very important positive indication. We also started studying the capital Control Bill project" PM Diab added.
Cabinet Statement:
After the session ended, Information Minister, Manal Abdel Samad, read the Cabinet's statement:
"The Council of Ministers convened in its weekly session, chaired by His Excellency the President of the Republic and attended by the Prime Minister, and Ministers. At the beginning of the session, His Excellency pointed out that the financial markets are still relatively calm after the Government announced the suspension of the payment of Eurobonds, which matured this March 9th, indicating that it is required to speed up the comprehensive plan that the Government referred to in its Policy statement.
Then His Excellency spoke about the measures taken to combat the Corona, stressing the need to persevere in taking preventive measures that prevent its spread, welcoming the assistance that can be provided to Lebanon in this framework.
Then, PM Diab said:
"Corona has become a Lebanese priority. There is a real state of terror, and there is political investment against the Government in this matter, in addition to an organized intimidation campaign.
The Government took all possible measures, and what is being said about Lebanon's delay is not true. On the contrary, measures have become a model for some European countries and the world. Unfortunately, some deal with matters on the basis of "It is a goat even if it flies" because of allegations and accounts even if it causes harm to the country.
Financially, we all clearly felt the great satisfaction at all levels with the decision taken by the Government last week to suspend the payment of Eurobonds, and it appears that the positive results have begun to show quickly and on multiple levels".
Cabinet Decisions:
Afterwards, the Cabinet studied Agenda topics and took appropriate decisions:
- Concerning "Corona", the preparation of Governmental hospitals in the governorates is in full swing, in parallel with the release of the loan provided by the World Bank, which is intended to equip Government hospitals to cope with Corona, and its value is $ 39 million. The Health Minister pointed to the initiative of some private hospitals to allocate departments to receive the suspected epidemic. He also stressed the importance of compulsory home quarantine and social protection from non-contact with the injured, and included, for example, the cases from Egypt and France, which each resulted in the injury of about ten others, which strengthens the need to adhere to the decisions and guidelines of the National Committee to combat Corona. The Minister stated that two thermal surveillance devices were received from a Chinese company to monitor arrivals from Masnaa region.
- The Council of Ministers asked international organizations to assume their responsibilities in terms of caring for the displaced Syrians and Palestinian refugees to provide the necessary health care and pre-emptive services for them in relation to "Corona".
- The Council of Ministers decided to double the speed of the Internet and double the volume of consumption for the end-users of the internet services, affiliated and insured on the Ministry of Communications OGERO network in residential places, free of charge and for a period ending in the end of April 2020, within the available technical capabilities.
- The Cabinet completed the research with the waste plan according to the concept set by the Environment Minister. After the available options were presented, the relevant Ministerial committee was charged with studying these options and returning to the Cabinet to take a decision on them.
-As for the issue related to the appointment of a Lebanese law firm to handle international cases to defend the interests of the state in the Al-Fattoush case, the Minister of Justice was tasked to do the necessary to secure the defense of rights of the Lebanese state, and work to end the file.
On the other hand, Justice Minister, Marie-Claude Najm, informed the Council of Ministers of the developments in the matter of transfers and judicial appointments, and noted the work of the Supreme Judicial Council and the advantages contained in the project prepared from it.
Najm stated that she is awaiting the Supreme Judicial Council's response on this matter, hoping that all efforts will be poured into strengthening the capabilities of the judiciary in this crucial stage of the country's history. The Cabinet session was preceded by a meeting between the President and Prime Minister, during which agenda topics were discussed. ----Presidency Press Office

Diab discusses with World Bank delegation common projects, chairs financial meeting
NNA/March 12/2020
Prime Minister Dr. Hassan Diab on Thursday held a meeting at the Grand Serail in presence of Ministers of Defense, Justice, Education, Economy, and Tourism and Social Affairs, as well as a delegation from the World Bank headed by the regional director Saroj Kumar Jha to discuss common projects with the World Bank. PM Diab also convened with Central Bank Governor Riad Salame and the Chairman of the Association of Banks Salim Sfeir, in presence of Ministers of Defense, Economy, Justice, and Administrative Development, as well as financial and legal consultants to follow up on the financial situation.The Prime Minister finally received a delegation from the Lebanese Customs.--Grand Serail Press Office

Diab heads meeting at Grand Serail over coronavirus developments
NNA/March 12/2020
A meeting, headed by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, was held this afternoon at the Grand Serail to discuss latest developments. Attendees reviewed the required mechanism for implementing procedures and measures related to coronavirus prevention. The currency exchange issue was also featured on the meeting’s agenda. The importance of respecting the exchange rate of the national currency and pursuing illegal money changers was highlighted. The meeting was held in presence of Deputy PM and Minister of Defense Zeina Akar, Ministers of Finance Ghazi Wazni, of Interior Mohammad Fahmi, and of Justice Marie-Claude Najm, as well as Central Bank Governor Riad Salame, State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, General Security Chief, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, ISF Chief, Major General Imad Othman, State Security Chief, Major General Tony Saliba, President of the Banking Control Commission Samir Hammoud, Army Intelligence Director, Brigadier-General Tony Mansour, and ISF Information Branch Chief Khaled Hammoud.
----Grand Serail Press Office

Berri tackles developments with new US Ambassador, UN’s Kubis, Zasypkin
NNA/March 12/2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, met this Thursday at his Ain Tineh residence the new US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, who came on a protocol visit upon her assumption of her duties in Lebanon. Talks between the pair reportedly touched on the general situation and the bilateral relations between Lebanon and the US. Speaker Berri also met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom he discussed most recent developments. The Speaker also received today the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, with talks reportedly touching on the general situation in Lebanon and the region, as well as the Lebanese-Russian bilateral relations.

Murtada tackles bilateral relations with Indonesian Ambassador
NNA/March 12/2020
Minister of Culture, Abbas Murtada, welcomed at his office this Thursday the Ambassador of Indonesia to Lebanon, Hajriyanto Thohari, accompanied by the embassy's cultural attaché.
The meeting touched on the overall situation and the latest developments, in addition to the existing bilateral relations between the two countries, especially at the cultural level, with emphasis on the prospects of developing cooperation by signing a memorandum of understanding covering all sectors, including the Lebanese National Library's cooperation with the Indonesian National Library and the centers of study specialized in Middle East affairs. Thohari presented Minister Murtada with a symbolic gift from the Indonesian heritage. The Minister stressed "the need to promote the spirit of communication and openness through culture," noting that "all of the Ministry's cultural centers are open to Indonesian activities and events in Lebanon."

Hassan, UNICEF Representative tackle joint projects
NNA/March 12/2020
Minister of Public Health, Dr. Hamad Hassan, met Thursday at the Ministry with UNICEF Representative in Lebanon, Yukie Mokuo, with whom he discussed the joint programs between the international organization and the Ministry and the possibility of strengthening them to keep pace with the Ministry's efforts in combating the novel corona epidemic. Mokou described the measures taken by the Ministry of Public Health as "serious", reiterating call not to believe false news.

Hassan chairs coordination meeting over governmental hospitals' equipment amid coronavirus outbreak
NNA/March 12/2020
Minister of Public Health, Hamad Hassan, chaired Thursday at the Ministry a meeting devoted to coordinate the equipment of the governmental hospitals nationwide amid the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The meeting was attended by World Health Organization (WHO) Representative in Lebanon Iman Shankiti, and a panel of public hospitals' chairmen. "Governmental hospitals will begin assuming this responsibility that is national par excellence," said the Minister. He also thanked the private hospitals for their initiative to contribute to the fight against coronavirus. Hassan did not fail to highlight the importance of the role of media amid the current juncture. In response to a question, he indicated that over 12500 hospital beds are available in Lebanon's public and private hospitals. "In light of the tally of the cases diagnosed in the past few weeks, the healthcare system in Lebanon still enjoy full containment capacities to assume medical and social duties," he said. "There's no need to think of the worst since the situation is still under control," he underlined. "The Lebanese state, with all its apparatuses and institutions, is in the service of the society and its protection," he concluded.

Hariri: Fight coronavirus away from politics and outbidding
NNA/March 12/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the situation cannot tolerate any outbidding, and that fighting coronavirus requires the utmost seriousness. He stressed that the mistakes that have occurred are now behind us, and what is in front of us is only the mobilization of all efforts within the State, health institutions and civil society to fight the epidemic. He said on Twitter: “The danger of the virus does not depend on the sectarian and political identity, and if the health requirements necessitate strict measures to control land crossings and to place a neighborhood or region where the virus is found in quarantine, we should not hesitate. The world has declared a state of emergency, from America to China and Italy. What is needed is to isolate government decisions from politics.”He added: “This is an opportunity to praise the medical staff and all the employees of the Rafic Hariri University Hospital, the Lebanese Red Cross and all the health institutions that established spaces dedicated to fight the epidemic.”--Hariri Press Office

Four injured in stabbing incident in northeast London - police
NNA/March 12/2020
British police said four boys sustained injuries in a stabbing incident in Walthamstow, northeast London late on Wednesday.
The boys, aged around 15-16, were taken to hospital with stab injuries not believed to be life-threatening, the police said in a tweet bit.ly/39NKbVS early on Thursday. Seven were arrested for “violent disorder, possession of offensive weapon & affray,” the police said. -- REUTERS

Virus-Hit Iran Asks IMF for Its First Loan since 1962
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Iran said on Thursday that it has sought financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, which has not lent it money since 1962, to help it combat the novel coronavirus. "Our central bank requested access" to the IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Twitter, urging the fund's board to respond to the request "responsibly".

Hariri to Officials: Fight Coronavirus Away from Politics
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Thursday that fighting the COVID-19 coronavirus requires the utmost seriousness, noting that "the mistakes that have occurred are now behind us.""What is in front of us is only the mobilization of all efforts within the State, health institutions and civil society to fight the epidemic," he tweeted, according to an English-language statement distributed by his office. He added: "The danger of the virus does not depend on the sectarian and political identity, and if the health requirements necessitate strict measures to control border crossings or to place a neighborhood or region under quarantine, we should not hesitate."Noting that the world has declared a state of emergency, Hariri called for separating the government's decisions from politics. He added: "This is an opportunity to praise the medical staff and all the employees of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, the Lebanese Red Cross and all the health institutions that established spaces dedicated to fight the epidemic."

Jumblat Says Lebanon Must Seek IMF Aid, Cites Iran Move
Naharnet/March 12/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Thursday said Lebanon has “the right to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund,” citing Iran’s request for aid from the IMF on Thursday in the face of its coronavirus outbreak. “Amid the enormous explosion of this pandemic, only human solidarity remains essential and down with the narrow political calculations,” Jumblat tweeted. “We have the right to ask for help from the IMF, accompanied with a serious reform program, and to ask for help for the Lebanese people and the refugees. This is the simplest protection measure,” the PSP leader added. “Iran has requested aid and we voice solidarity with it,” he went on to say. Several officials of Iran-backed Hizbullah have warned against Lebanon asking for financial assistance from the IMG, cautioning that such a move would place the country under political hegemony.

IMF Urges Lebanon to 'Quickly' Implement Economic Reforms
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Lebanon should move quickly to implement reforms to stabilize the country's economy, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war, and Prime Minister Hassan Diab suspended payment of a $1.2 billion Eurobond maturity due on Monday and is seeking debt restructuring because of dwindling foreign currency reserves. "Given the severity of economic conditions in Lebanon, it's important that the government designs and implements promptly a comprehensive package of reforms to effectively address the economic challenges and improve Lebanon's economic prospects," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters. While the country has not requested aid from the Washington-based crisis lender, "We stand ready... to assist the authorities in those efforts." Lebanon's debt burden, long among the largest in the world, is now equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted by more than a third on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to close. Diab also announced plans to slash state spending and downsize an inflated banking sector. An IMF team has met with Lebanese officials, and is now waiting to see their plans "on how to tackle the economic challenges they face," Rice said.

LibanPost Launches Passport, Residency Card and Municipality Fee Services
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
LibanPost has resumed the handling of the “Lebanese Biometric Passport” renewal as well as that of the “Temporary Residence for Syrian Nationals” and has launched the possibility to pay for the “Beirut Municipality Fee” at any of its 100+ offices across the country.
In a statement, the company said the new services aim to prove anew “its commitment to serve all residents and facilitate their daily lives.”Regarding the Lebanese Biometric Passport, citizens may now proceed with its replacement upon expiry at any LibanPost office. The new passport will be delivered to them at the address of their choice, upon completion. Furthermore, Syrian nationals residing in Lebanon may renew their temporary biometric residency cards at any LibanPost office. The new cards will be remitted to the authorized person (applicant, guarantor, member of the family) at the pre-defined address.
LibanPost has also launched the possibility for taxpayers to pay for the Beirut Municipality Fee at any of its branches, without having to commute to the municipality building. “With this additional offering, LibanPost confirms once more, its positioning as the convenient intermediary between citizens and public entities, and showcases an example of successful partnership between the public and the private sectors,” the company said. “For further convenience, all LibanPost services may be handled from the customer’s doorstep, without having to head to any office, by simply calling 1577 and asking for a ‘Home Service’,” it added.

If Iran can call on the IMF, why can’t Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Sulaiman Hakemy/The National/March 12/2020
As both countries face economic crisis and a coronavirus emergency, Tehran is opting for pragmatism where Beirut will not
Last week, Hezbollah – the Iran-backed militant political party that controls the Lebanese parliament – warned that the government in Beirut would have a “popular revolution” on its hands if it accepted an aid package from the International Monetary Fund.
Every member of the fund, including Lebanon, has the right to request financial assistance from it. Lebanon has been in desperate need of such assistance, as the country has been grappling with its worst economic crisis since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990 and waves of protests against the government over the last six months.
To compound the issue, Lebanon is being afflicted with a rapid spread of coronavirus in the country, thought to have started three weeks ago with a Lebanese national returning from Iran, which has the highest number of coronavirus cases – and deaths – in the region. Ever keen to put solidarity with the Iranian government above the interests of its own people, Lebanon’s Hezbollah-backed government waited until Tuesday to halt flights between Iranian airports and Beirut.
IMF officials have been in talks with the Lebanese government for months – though, as a result of Hezbollah’s obstruction, the most the fund has been allowed to do is offer limited “technical assistance”.
There are a few reasons that Hezbollah would rather that IMF money was kept out of Lebanon’s state coffers. The first is that assistance would come with a range of conditions – including the implementation of austerity measures, which will prove unpopular among Hezbollah’s base.
Second is that outside assistance from the IMF on the scale of what Lebanon needs would send a formal signal to the international community that Hezbollah is a poor steward for the Lebanese state. This is already apparent to many – hence the protests in Beirut and the reluctance of Western countries to step in as single donors. But to file a financial assistance request to the IMF would be to put it all in writing.
Another reason is to do with Hezbollah’s penchant for rhetoric and propaganda. The Hezbollah deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has labelled the IMF a tool of the US, and warned that giving it influence over Lebanon’s affairs would risk turning the Mediterranean nation into an American marionette. Hezbollah would rather, of course, that its strings were pulled from Tehran. But yesterday the Iranian government announced that, last week, its own central bank governor, Abdulnaser Hemmati, had formally reached out to the fund, asking for $5 billion in emergency assistance to deal with its own coronavirus outbreak. On Instagram, he emphasised Iran’s right to draw from the fund, stating that “no one should lose their life due to a lack of funds”.
Mr Hemmati’s strenuous effort to justify his actions was unnecessary. The coronavirus has infected at least 10,000 Iranians and killed more than 400, according to the country’s own official figures. Iran needs the money, and ordinary Iranians deserve help. And if the coronavirus continues to spread across the country, it may be Tehran that fears a popular revolution. But if Iran is willing to use a so-called “American tool” to pull itself out of a full-blown crisis, why shouldn’t its client, Lebanon? If Iranian lives should never be lost due to a lack of funds, why should Lebanese lives be so exposed?
There is a difference between a financial assistance package and rapid emergency funds. But as the ongoing economic and health crises in both countries merge and peak, the average person on the street will very quickly begin to see that difference as merely semantic.
*Sulaiman Hakemy is deputy comment editor at The National

Lebanon needs its friends as state disintegrates
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 12/2020
It took the newly Hezbollah-appointed Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab more than a month to stop flights to and from Iran in response to the difficult COVID-19 situation. Flights to and from Italy, which experienced a spike in cases long after Iran, were cancelled within a week. But it was impossible to do the same with Tehran. This is truly symbolic of the relationship between a vassal state and its master. Even though — after a major public outcry — the government finally took the decision to stop flights, one could ask who will stop Hezbollah fighters or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from arriving by land via Syria? Who has the capacity to do so?
Unfortunately, the Lebanese people are not only facing a threat to their health due to the Hezbollah-controlled government. The financial health of the state and even its future are also at high risk. As expected, Lebanon will default on its Eurobond debt and will probably also default on all its upcoming liabilities payments. It is now clear to everyone that the entire banking system is in negative equity, starting from Banque du Liban, the central bank. It wouldn’t be a surprise — as banks might also default and go bankrupt — to see a wave of consolidation and nationalization and tighter government control of the sector. Lebanese bondholders are also set to see the value of their holdings go down or disappear. Finally, the “haircut” everyone has been talking about will look more like a crew cut than anything else. Even if it starts with large account holders, the size of the problem will mean everybody is affected.
Despite promises of change by the current government, little should be expected. As difficult as it is, restructuring the debt is the easy part. The hard part is restructuring government. Indeed, how can a state function properly while a militia acting as the army can choose what laws apply to its members and threaten those who do not serve its interests? All three branches of power are under Hezbollah’s thumb: Executive, legislative and judiciary. The state is bleeding sovereign capital due to this corruption and mismanagement. All indications point to the fact that it is heading for collapse and an inability to honor its commitments, from the salaries of public officials to pension payments and other obligations. This will cause more instability and plunge many into poverty, and the country into high levels of insecurity.
As difficult as it is, restructuring the debt is the easy part. The hard part is restructuring government
What, therefore, can the best experts do if any restructuring of government institutions cannot go forward because it would conflict with Hezbollah’s interests? Can they change the electricity sector? Can they impose border controls? Can they even control construction permits? Hezbollah, which has systematically weakened the state, will always put its own interests first. Today, the government cannot even exert its authority on illegal activities being conducted in plain sight; it can’t even impose its control over the country’s full territory. So how can this government be capable of bringing change to the public sector, which currently benefits many financially and politically?
As the situation worsens, Iran has a plan for Lebanon. Do not think otherwise. It will not let go of its best foreign covert and diplomatic tool, which is Hezbollah. Now that full control is asserted, the Iranian plan is a broader integration with Iraq, which does not face the same international sanctions as Tehran. It can also count on Syria for logistics; yet Iraqi integration will be easier and can also help Iran. Iran has stronger control in Iraq compared to Syria and can create new alliances, starting from the energy sector, which benefits its axis. Incidentally, when Hezbollah focused on taking control of Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health — as the Iranian-affiliated parties also did in Iraq — no one investigated the reason. It is clearer now.
In this arrangement, Lebanon will not get a full solution, but just enough to keep limited government functioning to face domestic challenges, while Hezbollah keeps calling the shots. Lebanon will no longer honor any of its international commitments. Hezbollah wants to keep this structure as it enables it to use the government as a shield for all of its activities. Worse, it is ready to change the regime and take full control of the state: A regime of terror. Oppression will be more visible in the coming months in any case.
The alternative solution, which is the solution protesters want and Lebanon should aim for, would require a complete overhaul of Lebanese politics and would start with Hezbollah giving up its military arsenal and control of government institutions. This is, of course, wishful thinking. Even the reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that could bring some financial aid require more control over government activities — starting from border control — and this does not suit Hezbollah, which initially refused this course of action. Negotiations with the support of France might nevertheless take place to try and reduce the IMF’s requirements in order to get at least part of the bailout. If, by some miracle, this happens, it is condemning Lebanon to even more hardship and will further sink it into debt that it won’t be able to honor.
As the situation deteriorates and people suffer, the true friends of Lebanon will certainly help, but most probably through humanitarian channels and not through the government. Shadow financial structures will be developed to support some businesses. In short, the Lebanese state will continue its disintegration. Yet, as the situation with COVID-19 clears, protests can force change. It is not impossible. Iran is weakened for many obvious reasons and Lebanon still has friends in the US and the Arab world. They need to see a way forward, as the Lebanese people do too. It is time for a new leadership with a new vision.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Lebanon set to legalise medical, industrial cannabis cultivation
Timour Azhari/AlJazeera/March 12/2020
Draft law, headed for final parliamentary vote, could boost Lebanon's crippled economy and curb illicit production.
Beirut, Lebanon - Lebanon's parliament is set to vote on a law that would legalise the cultivation of cannabis for medical and industrial use in an effort to boost its crippled economy and curb illicit production of the psychoactive plant.
The draft law, which has been endorsed by parliamentary committees and is now headed for a final vote, would only affect cannabis that contains less than one percent of the psychoactive compound tetrahydrocannabidinol, or THC.
THC gives cannabis the recreational effects that have made it the most widely used illicit substance across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that around 147 million people, or 2.5 percent of the world population, consume cannabis.
Lebanon has cultivated the plant for at least 100 years and produces large amounts of hashish, a sticky, sweet-smelling derivative of the cannabis plant that looks like chocolate. Though illegal to produce, sell or use, it is widely available locally and is also illegally exported.
Lebanese hashish can be found in European capitals, and formerly made up about 80 percent of the world's supply during the country's civil war years (1975-90) when cultivation was at its peak.
Instead of dealing with that market, this bill would seek to create a new one involving types of cannabis plants that have not traditionally been cultivated in Lebanon.
Member of parliament Yassine Jaber, who headed the subcommittee that drafted the law, said the bill was based on a 2019 report by United States-based consultancy McKinsey & Company that recommended Lebanon legalise cannabis production for "high-added-value medicinal products with export focus".
Shortly afterwards, then-economy minister Raed Khoury said a legal cannabis sector in Lebanon could generate $1bn in revenue per year because the quality of Lebanon's hashish was "one of the best in the world".
"We have a competitive and a comparative advantage in the cannabis business," Jaber told Al Jazeera. "Our soil is among the best in the world for this, and the cost of production is low compared to other states."
Regulating the market
Dozens of countries around the world have allowed research in and production of medical cannabis in recent years, with studies repeatedly demonstrating the therapeutic effects of cannabinoids, a major chemical constituent of cannabis, for treatment of nausea and vomiting in terminal illnesses such as cancer and AIDS. The WHO says it has also shown therapeutic uses for "asthma and glaucoma, as an antidepressant, appetite stimulant, anticonvulsant and anti-spasmodic".
A push in Lebanon to legalise cultivation of medical cannabis
Other countries and regions have gone further and entirely legalised cannabis, including Uruguay, Georgia, South Africa, 10 US states and, most recently, Canada.
The draft law creates a commission with a regulatory authority that would issue licences for everything from importing seeds and saplings, establishing cannabis plant nurseries, planting and harvesting the crop, manufacturing goods from it and exporting its derivatives.
Licences can be awarded to Lebanese pharmaceutical companies, industries permitted to create industrial fibers, oils and extracts, and foreign companies that have a licence to work in the cannabis industry from their country of origin.
Additionally, licences can be awarded to specialised agricultural co-operatives established in Lebanon, Lebanese citizens such as farmers or landowners, and labs and research centres qualified to work with controlled substances.
'Opportunity missed'
One of the draft law's stated goals is to reduce pressure on Lebanon's clogged court and prison system stemming from organised crime involving the local cannabis trade.
But instead of decriminalising consumption of the plant or reducing sentences, it calls for "strengthening criminal penalties on violations against the articles of this law".
Between 3,000 and 4,000 people are arrested for drug crimes each year in Lebanon, the vast majority for the consumption of hashish, according to statistics from the Central Drug Enforcement Office.
Canada becomes second country to legalise recreational cannabis
The bill would also explicitly prohibit anyone with a criminal record from acquiring a licence to cultivate or work with the cannabis crop in any manner.
It would thereby exclude tens of thousands of people who have served time or have outstanding drug warrants for cultivation and use of cannabis, mostly in the fertile eastern Bekaa Valley region, where most of the crop is grown and processed.
This means that many farmers who have grown cannabis for generations would not be allowed to take part in the new legal sector.
"This law would legalise cultivation without taking into consideration the situation of persons who consume drugs, or those who produce them," Karim Nammour, a lawyer with progressive NGO Legal Agenda who specialises in drug policy, told Al Jazeera.
"Its an opportunity missed - they have failed to take a holistic approach."
Sandy Mteirik, a drug policy development manager at Skoun, a Lebanese nongovernmental organisation focused on drug rehabilitation and advocacy, also criticised the move.
"For sure this is not what the farmers of the Bekaa want," she told Al Jazeera. "There is no clear mechanism to integrate the existing illegal market into the legal market. You can't just ignore the implications and consequences of criminalising drug use and say this new market is the priority."
Big companies, big business
Jaber said local farmers would be able to benefit from the sector once a long-awaited amnesty bill is passed expunging the criminal records of cannabis farmers and users, who he said should be seen as "victims".
Prime Minister Hassan Diab's government has committed to endorsing an amnesty bill, though who exactly would be included is not clear.
Jaber said the draft law was not meant to address the issue of decriminalising drug users. "One way or another, the state will have to deal with that because the prisons are full," he told Al Jazeera.
However, he predicted the new legal cannabis market would move forward with or without the involvement of those who have been criminalised by the illegal sector.
"I think big companies will come and other farmers will come and it will be a big business," he said.
But Nammour warned the law would create a two-tier system where elites benefit from the production of cannabis, while those who have traditionally grown it in impoverished areas will be unable to participate, and everyday Lebanese will be unable to consume any of its products.
He also warned the draft law left the door open to endemic corruption in Lebanon. The commission tasked with overseeing the sector is funded by the licences it issues, while it is at the same time supposed to regulate licensing and prevent a monopoly or oversupply in the market.
"The conflict of interest is clear," Nammour said.

As Lebanon grapples with economic collapse and a coronavirus outbreak, refugees appeal for international help
Abby Sewell/The New Arab/March 12/2020
There are growing fears for a Covid-19 outbreak among refugees living in poor conditions.
With economic circumstances becoming increasingly difficult in Lebanon now also hit by a coronavirus outbreak, and with little hope of resettlement abroad, an increasing number of Syrian refugees have loaded their belongings onto buses and returned to their country and to an uncertain fate.
Meanwhile, those who see no option of returning to their war-torn country have been mounting protests in front of the offices of the UN refugee agency, calling for more attention to their cases. According to UN statistics, a total of about 38,500 registered refugees have returned from Lebanon to Syria since 2016, including about 21,000 who have returned in organised 'voluntary return' trips that Lebanon’s General Security agency has been coordinating with the Syrian regime since April 2018. "People are being pressured to return in the 'voluntary returns'," Sawsan Kalash, one of a group of Syrians who began staging a daily sit-in in front of UNHCR's Tripoli office since December, told The New Arab. "But no one returns voluntarily. People are returning because of the injustice and oppression and poverty and sickness."
'Perfect storm'
The numbers of Syrians returning in the General Security-organised trips appear to have increased since Lebanon has been hit by a 'perfect storm' of financial crisis and mass protests that hit in the last quarter of 2019, while the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 in the small country risks hitting them disproportionately in light of their tough living conditions.  In late August, 787 Syrians returned in that month’s 'voluntary return' trip. During the most recent of those trips, on Feb. 13, buses carried 1,093 Syrians back across the border from Lebanon. On the same day, several dozen other Syrians were protesting in front of UNHCR's office in Tripoli, as they have been nearly every day since December. "If the Syrian is forbidden to work, and aid is not arriving from the UN and he’s not able to go back to his country, what’s the solution?” Kalash asked.
"We decided to do a sit-in in front of the UN building to get our voices heard and... put pressure on the UN to consider our situation."
No resettlement hope
UN officials said their hands are tied by the lack of available resettlement places and funding.
In a statement issued in response to the refugee protests, Mireille Girard, UNHCR's Representative in Lebanon said: “While we are working hard to further expand assistance, we remain severely constrained by funding limitations. This is forcing us and other humanitarian agencies to prioritise the most vulnerable refugees." "Many refugees hope to be resettled to a third country, as they do not see how to cope with the current situation. While we understand their hope for a solution, it is important to stress that the number of resettlement places remains extremely limited worldwide,", she added.
Less than one percent of the world’s refugees find resettlement places each year. UN representatives confirmed that economic pressures seemed to be contributing to the increasing number of returns, with many refugees citing increased food prices and inability to afford essential items as reasons for returning.
It is not up to UNHCR or anyone else to make the decision to return on behalf of refugees--UNHCR spokesperson
Penury in Lebanon, mortal danger at home
Most of the Syrians who spoke to The New Arab said they were months behind on their rent and facing eviction – or had already been evicted. Some had family members with medical conditions not covered by UNHCR aid, including cancer. Several of them said they had pulled children out of school because of the increasing economic pressure. Khadija al Omar said in nine years as refugees in Lebanon, her family had only received one month of cash assistance from UNHCR, to help with the costs of heating. “My son goes and sells tissues on the street,” she said. “Is this what I wished for my son, to go and sell tissues when he’s eight years old?... If I could return to my country I would have – I wouldn’t have stayed until now.”Like Omar, Ramez Mohammed Halabi said his family is not receiving aid and his four children – aged six to 12 – had to drop out of school this year because he could not afford the cost of transportation and other expenses. The last time he went to the UNHCR office to appeal for assistance, Halabi said, “The employee told me, ‘Go with the voluntary return, register and go.’ I’m from Idlib – Idlib is under fire.”
UNHCR spokeswoman Lisa Abou Khaled said there might have been a “misunderstanding” in the case.
“It is not up to UNHCR or anyone else to make the decision to return on behalf of refugees,” she said. “Our staff are very clear on that. Return is fundamentally a human decision; each family has a different situation. It is not up to us to tell them or decide on their behalf.”
The fate of those who have returned, in some cases, is unclear. In theory, General Security runs the list of potential returnees by Syrian authorities to ensure that none of them are wanted for arrest should they return and turns away those whose names are on “wanted” lists.
But there has been no comprehensive tracking of what has happened to the returnees, with some UN officials complaining about lack of access to returnees in Syria. “Today they’re registering people for the ‘voluntary return’ to Syria,” said Hiba Shinno, a Syrian from Hama living in Tripoli. Nine months ago, she said, “My uncle’s household registered and went back on one of the trips and then they went missing. We can’t find out anything about them….My husband’s brother, the same thing happened. He also got to the Syrian border and went missing.”
So, Shinno said, she and her husband are not considering going back, although their situation in Lebanon is difficult. They have two special-needs children who are not going to school – the public schools, which generally teach Syrian children in “second shift” afternoon classes, would not accept them, and the family can’t afford to put them in private school. “If (schools for them) aren’t available here, give us documents to allow us to travel,” she said. “We can’t go to Syria. If I went to Syria, I don’t know if the regime would take me or not -- me and my husband and children.”
*-Abby Sewell is a freelance journalist based in Beirut

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 12-13/2020
Three US personnel killed, 12 injured in rocket attack on Iraqi base
Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 12 March 2020
The US-led coalition fighting ISIS confirmed on Wednesday that three personnel had been killed in a rocket attack on a military camp in Iraq and that about 12 additional personnel were wounded. In a statement, the coalition said that approximately 18 Katyusha rockets struck the base. Camp Taji is an Iraqi base that hosts Coalition personnel for training and advising missions."The attack is under investigation by the Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces," the statement said. The US leads an international coalition - comprised of dozens of countries and thousands of soldiers - formed in Iraq in 2014 to confront ISIS, an extremist group that Baghdad declared defeated in late 2017.

US-led airstrikes target Kata’ib Hezbollah positions in Iraq’s Babylon
N.P. Krishna Kumar, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 13 March 2020
US carried out airstrikes on five positions of the Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah in Babylon, southwest of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, according to Al Arabiya correspondent. Intense fighter jet movement over Babylon along with heavy explosions were heard, according to the correspondent. The airstrikes targeted the infrastructure of Kata’ib Hezbollah resulting in big losses among their ranks. The airstrikes also targeted the Popular Mobilizaion Units in Al Anbar as well and Babylon. On Wednesday, at least 18 Katyusha rockets were fired at military camp Taji in Iraq, killing one British and two American personnel. The Pentagon squarely blamed Iran-backed militia for thes attack, which also wounded 14 people. The Pentagon later confirmed that the United States had carried out strikes against five Iran-backed militia weapons storage facilities in Iraq, a day after a deadly rocket attack killed two American and one British service member. “The United States conducted defensive precision strikes against Kata’ib Hezbolla facilities across Iraq,” a Pentagon statement said. “These weapons storage facilities include facilities that housed weapons used to target US and coalition troops,” it said.
The strikes were “defensive, proportional and in direct response to the threat posed by Iranian-backed Shiite militia groups” the statement added. Eariler, US President Donald Trump has given the Pentagon the authority to potentially respond to Wednesday’s rocket attack by Iran-backed militia in Iraq that killed two American troops and a British servicemember, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Thursday. “I have spoken with the president. He’s given me the authority to do what we need to do, consistent with his guidance. And, you know - if that becomes the case,” Esper told reporters at the Pentagon. Britain also took part in the US-led coalition strikes. “We must find those responsible. I welcome the Iraqi President’s call for an immediate investigation to hold perpetrators to account - but we must see action,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement. Raab also said he had spoken with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday night, and the two had agreed that “it is essential to defend against these deplorable acts.”

Twenty-six Iraqi fighters killed in east Syria strike
AFP, Beirut/Thursday, 12 March 2020
An air strike killed 26 fighters of Iraqi paramilitary group Hashed al-Shaabi in eastern Syria after a deadly attack on US-led coalition troops in Iraq, a war monitor said Thursday. Updating its toll for the Wednesday strike, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it was probably carried out by the coalition. The coalition did not immediately provide comment. Before the strike near the border town of Albu Kamal, rockets were fired at a military base north of Baghdad hosting coalition troops, killing two Americans and one Briton. It was the deadliest such attack in years on an Iraqi military base hosting foreign troops. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the United States has blamed Iran-backed factions from the Hashed al-Shaabi for similar violence in recent months. Within hours, the air strikes were launched against Hashed forces just across the border in Syria. Hardline Hashed factions have fought alongside Syrian government forces for several years and have been targeted by both coalition and Israeli air strikes. The coalition has been carrying out air strikes in Syria since 2014, when IS overran a large swathe of the country and neighbouring Iraq. Coalition-backed forces last year expelled the jihadists from their last outpost in eastern Syria, but the group retains sleeper cells on both sides of the border.

UK’s Raab demands action to find perpetrators of Iraq attack
Reuters, LondonThursday, 12 March 2020
Britain on Thursday demanded Iraqi authorities take action to hold to account those responsible for a rocket attack in Iraq which killed one British and two American personnel. “We must find those responsible. I welcome the Iraqi President’s call for an immediate investigation to hold perpetrators to account - but we must see action,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement. Raab also said he had spoken with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday night, and the two had agreed that “it is essential to defend against these deplorable acts.”

Iraqi politicians, UN condemn attack on US troops in Baghdad
AFP, Baghdad/Thursday, 12 March 2020
Top Iraqi politicians joined the United Nations Thursday in condemning a rocket attack north of Baghdad that killed a British soldier and two Americans and threatened a new escalation. A volley of 18 rockets slammed into the Taji air base late Wednesday, killing a British soldier, a US soldier and an American contractor in the deadliest attack in years on US forces in Iraq. There was no claim of responsibility but Washington has accused Iran-backed factions of Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary alliance of carrying out similar attacks. Within hours, air raids killed 26 Iran-aligned Iraqi fighters in neighboring Syria, prompting fears that tensions between Washington and Tehran would once again flare up. On Thursday morning, Iraq’s military command said the attack was “a serious security challenge” and pledged to open an investigation. President Barham Saleh and parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi condemned a “terrorist attack” which targeted “Iraq and its security.”The UN mission in Iraq called for “maximum restraint on all sides.” “These ongoing attacks are a clear and substantial threat to the country, and the risk of rogue action by armed groups remains a constant concern,” it said in a statement. “The last thing Iraq needs is to serve as an arena for vendettas and external battles.”The attack was the 22nd since October on US interests in Iraq. US diplomatic offices have come under attack as well as the bases where the 5,200 American troops stationed in Iraq are based. The previous attacks killed an Iraqi soldier and a US contractor, leading to a major uptick in tensions between Washington and Tehran. Washington responded to the American contractor’s death with air strikes that killed more than two dozen Iran-backed Iraqi fighters. Days later, a US drone killed senior Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and Hashed deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad airport prompting retaliatory Iranian air strikes against coalition troops in Iraq.

US Congress passes final resolution to restrain Trump on Iran
AFP, Washington/Thursday, 12 March 2020
The US Congress on Wednesday gave its final approval to a resolution to restrain President Donald Trump from attacking Iran after months of soaring tensions. The House of Representatives voted 227-186 to join the Senate in support of the resolution, which bars any military action against Iran without an explicit vote from Congress. But the resolution is virtually certain to be vetoed by Trump and the coalition of most Democrats and a handful of war-skeptic Republicans lacks the votes to override him.

CP NewsAlert: Sophie Gregoire Trudeau tests positive for COVID-19: PMO
The Canadian Press/March 12, 2020
OTTAWA — The Prime Minister's Office says Sophie Gregoire Trudeau has tested positive for COVID-19.Following medical advice, the prime minister's wife is remaining in isolation for the time being.
The PMO says she is feeling well, is taking all the recommended precautions and her symptoms remain mild. The PMO says the Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in good health with no symptoms. As a precautionary measure and following the advice of doctors, he will be in isolation for a planned period of 14 days.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/cp-newsalert-trudeau-goes-self-155615307.html

Canada PM Working from Home as Wife Tested for COVID-19
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife announced they were self-isolating Thursday as she undergoes tests for the new coronavirus after returning from a speaking engagement with "mild flu-like symptoms." Sophie Gregoire-Trudeau's symptoms have subsided since she got back from Britain on Wednesday, but as a precaution the prime minister "will spend the day in briefings, phone calls and virtual meetings from home," according to a statement. Trudeau also cancelled a meeting with Canada's provincial and territorial leaders in Ottawa.

How the Brotherhood & Iran Have Infiltrated Canada
Meira Svirsky/Clarion Project/March 12/2020
An exclusive interview with Soheil Raza on how the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian regime have a foothold in the Canadian government and educational system.
Soheil Raza is married to Raheel Raza, one of Clarion’s spokespeople. Raheel and Soheil run Muslims Facing Tomorrow, an organization that fights extremism and radicalization.
Listen:https://soundcloud.com/clarion-project/how-the-brotherhood-iran-have-infiltrated-canada

Coronavirus: Iran confirms 1,075 new cases in past 24 hours
Reuters, Dubai/Thursday, 12 March 2020
Iran confirmed on Thursday 1,075 new cases of the deadly coronavirus in the past 24 hours in the country, a health official said. The Ministry of Health also reported 75 new deaths from the virus in the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll there to 429. “We have identified 1,075 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, meaning that there are 10,075 infected people in the country. The death toll is 429.” Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur told state television.

Iran underreporting coronavirus cases: Head of US Central Command
Reuters, Washington/Thursday, 12 March 2020
A top US general said on Thursday that Iran is significantly underreporting the number of its coronavirus victims and he believed that the global pandemic is making Tehran more dangerous, a day after an attack in Iraq that killed US and British troops. “I think it is having an effect on how they make decisions, I think it slows them down...I believe the numbers are probably significantly underreported,” US Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of Central Command, said. McKenzie said while he did not know for sure what impact the virus was having that “authoritarian regimes” usually react to extreme pressure by looking at external threats. “I think it probably makes them, in terms of decision making, more dangerous rather than less dangerous,” McKenzie said during a Senate hearing. Iran confirmed on Thursday 1,075 new cases of the deadly coronavirus in the past 24 hours in the country, a health official said.

Top adviser to Iran’s Khamenei infected with coronavirus
Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 12 March 2020
A top adviser to Iran’s utmost authority Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been infected with the new coronavirus, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday. “Ali Akbar Velayati, who also is the head of Tehran’s Masih Daneshvari hospital, had contacts with many coronavirus patients in past few weeks. He has been infected and is under quarantine now,” Tasnim reported. A top US general said on Thursday that Iran is significantly underreporting the number of its coronavirus victims and he believed that the global pandemic is making Tehran more dangerous, a day after an attack in Iraq that killed US and British troops. “I think it is having an effect on how they make decisions, I think it slows them down...I believe the numbers are probably significantly underreported,” US Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of Central Command, said. Earlier on Thursday, Iran confirmed 1,075 new cases of the deadly coronavirus in the past 24 hours in the country, a health official said. The Ministry of Health also reported 75 new deaths from the virus in the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll there to 429. In a related development, Bahrain accused Iran on Thursday of “biological aggression” by covering up the spread of the coronavirus and failing to stamp the passports of Bahraini travelers. On March 3, Khamenei said that the coronavirus outbreak in Iran is “not that big of a deal,” urging citizens to pray against the virus. “This calamity is not that big of a deal, and that there have been bigger ones in the past,” Khamenei was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr news agency. Khamenei called on Iranians to pray against the virus “as prayer can solve many problems.”

Iran unveils Soleimani statue in city with highest coronavirus deaths
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 12 March 2020
Iran unveiled a statue of slain commander Qassem Soleimani in the Iranian city of Bandar Anzali in the Gilan province, where the death toll from the novel coronavirus has reportedly reached its peak. Social media users shared images of the statue on Twitter, expressing anger of the regime’s willingness to spend resources on building the statue to commemorate the general, who was killed in US airstrikes in Iraq on January 3, rather than on medical resources to combat the outbreak. While #CronaVirus taking a massive toll in Iran, the regime unveils a giant statue of Qassem Suleimani in northern province of Gilan, Bandar Anzali , a city which has recorded highest #COVID2019 death toll in Iran. The Iranian government has reported 9,000 infections and 354 deaths from the virus so far. However, experts and some public officials have consistently cast doubt on the official numbers. An analysis by The Atlantic magazine put the estimated number of people infected in Iran at 2 million. It is likely Iranian officials don’t know the actual number of infected people, according to Dr. Kaveh Khoshnood, a professor of epidemiology at Yale University’s School of Public Health. Iran’s coronavirus “numbers have changed drastically and there is not much transparency” he told Al Arabiya English in an interview. Earlier this week, Mohammad Hossein Ghorbani, the health minister’s representative in Gilan, said that more than 200 have died in the province alone. Video footage circulating on social media on Sunday showed a man, who was suspected of having coronavirus, in the northern city of Rasht collapsed on the ground outside of a hospital that denied him entry due to a shortage of space. According to Ghorbani, Gilan does not have the appropriate infrastructure to counter the coronavirus outbreak. Some hospitals in Iran have reached capacity and new patients have been told to wait or simply denied entrance. Outside of Iran, the Middle East has a total of more than 800 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with most of the initial cases in the region stemming from travel to Iran.

Iran Asks for IMF Loan as Number of Virus Infections Shoot Up
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
Iran has asked for an emergency $5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to combat the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has killed 429 people in the country. Iran's Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati said Thursday he made the request last week in a letter to IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. The international lender has said it stands ready to support countries through a Rapid Financial Instrument. Iran's economy has been battered by US sanctions, which have choked Tehran's ability to sell its oil. The recent outbreak of the virus there has compounded its economic woes, with all of Iran's neighbors closing their borders to Iranians and multiple nations cutting travel links with Iran, including shipping in some cases, which is affecting imports, as well. The Iranian health ministry on Thursday reported 75 new deaths from the coronavirus in the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll there to 429. "We have identified 1,075 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, meaning that there are 10,075 infected people in the country. The death toll is 429," Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur told state television. Multiple top officials in Iran — from its senior vice president to Cabinet ministers, members of parliament, Revolutionary Guard members, health workers and health ministry officials — have contracted the virus. Some of those officials have died. Iran has one of the world's worst death tolls outside of China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Brazilian Official who Met Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's communications chief, who met Donald Trump during an official weekend visit to the U.S. leader's Florida resort, has tested positive for the new coronavirus, the government said Thursday. The Brazilian president's office "has taken and is taking all necessary preventive measures to protect the health of the president and all staff that traveled with him to the United States" last Saturday to Tuesday, it said in a statement, confirming the far-right government's chief spokesman, Fabio Wajngarten, had tested positive for COVID-19. Wajngarten had posted a picture of himself meeting Trump on Instagram on Saturday, both with hats reading "Make Brazil Great Again." Vice President Mike Pence was also in the photograph.

Tehran Agrees to Hand Over Downed Jet's Black Boxes to Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
Iran pledged Wednesday at a meeting of UN civil aviation agency to hand over black boxes from downed Flight 752 to Ukraine or France for analysis -- a move welcomed by Canada and Ukraine. Iran's representative at the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal, Farhad Parvaresh, said the devices would be sent to Kiev, sources confirmed to Agence France Presse. They are expected to contain information about the last moments before the Ukraine International Airlines jetliner was on January 8 struck by a missile and crashed shortly after taking off from the Tehran airport, killing 176 people. In Ottawa, Canadian Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne described Iran's commitment to finally share the black boxes as "a step in the right direction by Iran.""I take Iran at their word," he said, "but I would rather judge their actions once the black boxes are in Europe and we have our own experts who have been able to analyze (them)." Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, Andriy Schevchenko, in a tweet said his country also "welcomes Iran's decision" to hand them over, adding that "if additional expertise is needed," the flight data recorders would be forwarded to France for analysis. Iran has admitted that the two black boxes were damaged and that it lacked the technical ability to extract data from them, but for two months it has waffled about what to do with them. Countries whose citizens died in the disaster -- which included mostly Iranians but also Afghans, Britons, Canadians, Swedes and Ukrainians -- had criticized Iran's refusal to hand the plane's black boxes to Ukraine or one of the few countries capable of recovering and analyzing the data they contain.  Canada repeatedly asked Iran to hand the plane's black boxes over to Ukraine or France for expert analysis.
At the ICAO meeting, Canadian Transportation Minister Marc Garneau stepped up the pressure, saying: "We cannot learn from the tragic shoot-down of PS752 unless all the facts are known and analyzed. "Two months after the fact, we should all be increasingly concerned with Iran's failure to arrange for the readout of the flight recorders despite repeated requests," he said, according to his speaking notes. "Iran must act now to arrange the readout of the flight recorders as a demonstration of continued willingness to provide a full and transparent account of this event that is consistent with their international obligations. Canadians and the international community simply cannot wait any longer."The ICAO also pressed Tehran "to conduct the accident investigation in a timely manner" in compliance with international accident investigation provisions. The disaster unfolded as Iran's defenses were on high alert in case the US retaliated to Iranian strikes hours earlier on American troops stationed in Iraq -- which were themselves in response to the US killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

Trauma and Sadness: U.N. Investigators Reflect on 9-Year Syria Probe
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
After nine years of chronicling war crimes and horrendous suffering in Syria, U.N. investigators voice frustration and sadness, but also determination to continue documenting violations and hope that one day justice will be served. The U.N. Commission of Inquiry for Syria was set up a few months after the country's bloody conflict ignited on March 15, 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests. The U.N. Human Rights Council mandated the investigators to probe "all alleged violations of international human rights law", and urged them, when possible, to identify suspected perpetrators to ensure they could later be held accountable. The task did not appear so daunting at first, when many expected the conflict would be short-lived. "I thought maybe I would have to give a year or maybe a little more," said Karen Koning AbuZayd -- who along with Brazilian commission chair Paulo Pinheiro is the only original commission member still on the team."Certainly I had no idea we would still be going on," the US citizen and former top UN official told AFP in a recent interview.
Sense of obligation
Nearly nine years later, after more than 380,000 people have been killed and millions of Syrians have been displaced, the investigators this week presented their 19th report to the Human Rights Council. They have never been permitted into Syria, but base their findings largely on interviews with victims and witnesses. Over the years, the commission has repeatedly accused the various sides in the increasingly complex conflict of war crimes and, in some cases, of crimes against humanity. But their endless calls for a halt to hostilities and for all sides to respect and protect civilians have largely gone unheeded. "Of course it is very frustrating," Hanny Megally told AFP, adding that when he joined the commission in 2017 he "was hoping this conflict would come to an end sooner". But the Egyptian academic said the three current commissioners "felt there is an obligation" to continue documenting abuses and recommending ways to lessen the civilian suffering on the ground. Pointing out that Syrian families and rights groups were continuing their struggle to end the bloodshed, to find the missing and ensure justice, he insisted that "we can't give up if they continue."
He said it was particularly difficult to witness the situation in Syria's war-ravaged northwest, where close to one million people have been displaced since December by a Russian-backed regime offensive on the Idlib region.
'Bad guys are winning'
Megally said there were now around 1.5 million people stranded near the border with Turkey in desperate conditions, with reports of young children freezing to death. "For me, that is worst... Those senseless deaths that could have been prevented, I think are quite shocking," he said, slamming the international community for not doing more to help. Koning AbuZayd, who spent much time in Syria before the conflict and made many friends there in her former capacity as head of the U.N. agency that services Palestinian refugees, said watching the country descend into carnage had been "painful, personally.""It is just so sad," she said. "The bad guys are winning. They have the power and the weapons and the ordinary people are the ones who are suffering." The commissioners have for years been drafting a secret list of people and groups allegedly responsible for a vast array of violations. Megally said the hope in the beginning was that "having a list and talking about potential prosecution before the International Criminal Court would be a deterrent". But repeated calls for the situation in Syria to be referred to the ICC has fallen on deaf ears in a hopelessly deadlocked UN Security Council. Instead, the commissioners have turned their attention to working with countries willing to try suspected Syrian war criminals in their jurisdictions, and have received over 200 requests for assistance with such cases to date. Megally said one goal now was to publicize those cases and let perpetrators know: "There will be accountability."
'Everyone is traumatized'
The work of documenting horrifying abuses, including bombings of schools and hospitals, torture of detainees and sexual violence, is meanwhile grueling. "I think everyone is traumatized," Megally said. While the three commissioners work on a voluntary, part-time basis, they are backed up by a team of around 30 investigators, analysts and other experts who follow the situation around the clock. Koning AbuZayd said some team members had quit over the years, but others have been there since the beginning. "I don't know how they tolerate it, because it is day and night." The commissioners themselves have found different ways to handle the strain. Koning AbuZayd swims every morning and spends time with her grandchildren, while Megally likes to cook "to try to get away from all." "There is a satisfaction in doing that because you can start something and see it finished and feel you have accomplished something," he said. That, Megally said, is a welcome change from the Syria probe, which "is going on and on, and it's often difficult to see the result."

East Syria Strike Kills 26 Iraqi Fighters
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
An air strike killed 26 fighters of Iraqi paramilitary group Hashed al-Shaabi in eastern Syria after a deadly attack on US-led coalition troops in Iraq, a war monitor said Thursday. Updating its toll for the Wednesday strike, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it was probably carried out by the coalition. The coalition did not immediately provide comment. Before the strike near the border town of Albu Kamal, rockets were fired at a military base north of Baghdad hosting coalition troops, killing two Americans and one Briton. It was the deadliest such attack in years on an Iraqi military base hosting foreign troops. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the United States has blamed Iran-backed factions from the Hashed al-Shaabi for similar violence in recent months. Within hours, the air strikes were launched against Hashed forces just across the border in Syria. Hardline Hashed factions have fought alongside Syrian government forces for several years and have been targeted by both coalition and Israeli air strikes. The coalition has been carrying out air strikes in Syria since 2014, when IS overran a large swathe of the country and neighbouring Iraq. Coalition-backed forces last year expelled the jihadists from their last outpost in eastern Syria, but the group retains sleeper cells on both sides of the border.

Syria War Enters 10th Year With No Hope in Sight
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
As it enters its tenth year, the war in Syria is anything but abating, as foreign powers scrap over a ravaged country where human suffering keeps reaching new levels. When protesters in March 2011 demanded their rights and regime change, they likely never imagined it would trigger a reaction that has led to the 21st century's biggest war. Nine years on, President Bashar al-Assad is still in power and there to stay, more than 380,000 people have died, dozens of towns and cities razed to the ground and half of the country's entire population displaced. Nearly a year after the Islamic State group's "caliphate" was dismantled, the West's attention towards Syria was only pricked again last month when Turkey threatened to open the floodgates for migrants seeking to flee to Europe. While the number of fronts has been reduced by Damascus' reconquest in recent years, the nature of the war is changing and violence is still raging in the northwest. Some other regions have long been pacified, but people there have yet to feel the dividends of peace as Syria plays host to a complex international showdown involving Russia, the United States, Turkey, Israel and Iran. "It's certainly not a simple international conflict," said Syria researcher Fabrice Balanche.Nine years ago, teenagers inspired by Arab Spring uprisings they saw on television, spray-painted a message on the walls of a school in the southern city of Daraa.\ "Down with the regime. Your turn, Doctor," they scrawled, referring to Assad, a trained ophthalmologist. Within days security forces detained them, sparking angry protests many say triggered Syria's uprising. But a violent crackdown soon saw revolutionaries take up arms with backing from Gulf nations, and wrest key areas from government control. Militant groups also emerged, most notably ISIS, which swept across large parts of the country and neighboring Iraq in 2014.As the situation unraveled, foreign armies soon entered the arena, eventually leading Damascus, with the support of Russia and Iran, to regain the upper hand. It now controls 70 percent of the country.
Five foreign powers
Alarmed by ISIS, Washington intervened in 2014 with airstrikes on Syrian soil as the head of a global coalition against the militants.
A year later Moscow waded in on Assad's side in a move that would turn the tide of Syria's war. Iran, with its elite Revolutionary Guards and allied Iraqi and Lebanese fighters, also took an active role in backing the regime, in what analysts say was a move to secure access to the Mediterranean.
Turkey, meanwhile, launched the first of several incursions across its southern border in 2016 and last year seized a 120-kilometer (70-mile) long strip of land from Kurdish fighters it views as "terrorists". Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria, which it says mostly target Iranian and Lebanese fighters.
Omar Abu Leyla, an activist now living abroad, accuses Western powers who initially took a stand against Assad of shifting all their focus to fighting jihadists after 2014 -- to the detriment of the revolution. "Syria became increasingly destroyed and splintered after 2011, and the international community is responsible," he said.
'Russian-Iranian protectorate' -
Syria's war has displaced more than 11 million people at home and abroad, with Turkey absorbing more Syrian refugees than any other country in the world. In the latest fighting, a Russia-backed offensive since December on the last major rebel bastion of Idlib has forced almost a million people to flee towards the closed Turkish border within months. The ongoing humanitarian emergency in northwestern Syria has been described by the aid community as the worst since the start of the war. A Russian-Turkish ceasefire holds for now in Idlib, though it is not clear for how long it will stem resisting jihadists and Turkey-backed rebels. The deal was met with skepticism by residents who have seen countless other initiatives flounder in recent years, but Balanche said he expected the fighting to die down in the coming years. After the northeast returns to the government, "the country will be a Russian-Iranian protectorate while Turks occupy the north", Balanche said. Idlib would likely become a Syrian version of the Gaza Strip, he said, with millions crammed into a narrow sliver of land on the border. "Assad will stay in power and be re-elected in 2021," he said. In regime-held areas, the government has been accused of widespread detentions and forced army conscriptions. Omar al-Hariri, another exiled activist, said it was hard to believe so many of his fellow Syrians were now dead. "If we asked people today if they'd rather revert to the way things were before 2011, they might say yes," he said. "But what's done is done. There's no going back."

Iraq Fears Escalation after Deadly Rocket Cttack, Air Strike
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 12/2020
Iraqi and United Nations officials scrambled Thursday to contain the fallout from an unprecedented rocket attack that killed three US-led coalition members and threatened yet another escalation of Iran-US tensions. Within hours of the attack on the Taji air base north of Baghdad -- the deadliest in years on a base used by US forces in Iraq -- an air strike killed more than two dozen Iran-aligned fighters in neighbouring Syria. It marked a dramatic uptick in violence less than three months after rockets killed a US contractor in northern Iraq, unleashing a round of tit-for-tat attacks between Washington and Tehran on Iraqi soil. Fearing an even bloodier flare-up this time, Iraqi officials and the United Nations were quick to condemn the deaths. Iraq's military command said it was "a serious security challenge" and pledged to open an investigation. President Barham Saleh and parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi condemned a "terrorist attack" which targeted "Iraq and its security." The UN mission in Iraq called for "maximum restraint on all sides". "These ongoing attacks are a clear and substantial threat to the country, and the risk of rogue action by armed groups remains a constant concern," it said."The last thing Iraq needs is to serve as an arena for vendettas and external battles."
Briton, Americans killed
Wednesday's attack was the 22nd on US interests in Iraq since late October. It saw a volley of 18 rockets slam into the Taji air base, one of about a dozen facilities across Iraq where coalition forces are based. The coalition confirmed three of its personnel were killed and around a dozen more wounded. One of the dead was a member of the Royal Army Medical Corps, Britain confirmed. A US military official told AFP the other two were a US soldier and an American contractor. There was no immediate word on Iraqi casualties. No group claimed responsibility, but Washington has accused hardline factions of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary alliance of carrying out similar attacks.  The Hashed is a web of mostly Shiite armed factions, many of which have close ties with neighbouring Iran, and has been incorporated into the Iraqi military. In late December, the US accused Iran-aligned faction Kataeb Hezbollah of killing an American contractor at a base in northern Iraq. It responded with air strikes in western Iraq that killed 25 of the group's fighters. Days later, a US drone killed senior Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and Hashed deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad airport. Iran then launched its own strikes on a western Iraqi base, leaving dozens of US troops suffering from brain trauma. Hashed factions have repeatedly pledged to avenge Muhandis's death in their own way.
Hashed hammered in Syria
Within hours of Wednesday's attack, an air strike killed 26 Iran-aligned Iraqi fighters in neighbouring Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The Britain-based war monitor said it was carried out by three planes which probably belonged to the US-led coalition.
Iraq counts years of close ties with both Iran and the United States, and has been put in an increasingly difficult position by the spiralling tensions between its allies. In January, Iraqi lawmakers voted to oust all foreign troops from Iraq in reaction to the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis. Some 5,200 US troops are stationed in Iraq as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State jihadist group. While IS has lost all of the territory it once held in Iraq and Syria, sleeper cells remain capable of carrying out attacks on both sides of the border. On Sunday, two US soldiers were killed north of Baghdad while helping Iraqi forces battle IS remnants. US officials previously told AFP they considered the Hashed a bigger threat than IS, given the frequency and accuracy of rocket attacks on US troops that could be traced back to the paramilitaries.

Sudan: FBI to Assist Investigate PM Assassination Attempt
Khartoum- Ahmed Younes/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
A team of US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrived in Khartoum to help Sudan in the ongoing investigations into the failed assassination attempt of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Hamdok survived an assassination attempt when a 750 grams- explosive device went off near his convoy in the capital, Khartoum. Sudanese Culture and Information Minister Faisal Mohammed Saleh told reporters that an FBI team will join Sudanese investigators, adding that they will bring relevant “expertise and techniques for this kind of case.”Saleh pointed out that Sudan has no precedent for incidents such as car bombs and explosions, noting that international agreements to combat terrorism obligate countries to seek various expertise to face this type of crime. Earlier, Saleh said security agents have arrested a number of nationals and foreigners in connection with the attack. He did not elaborate on the number or identities of the suspects. He revealed new security measures to secure the Prime Minister, top officials, and strategic locations in Sudan. He also indicated that units will follow new security plans that would maintain the safety of the country without compromising public freedoms and rights. Meanwhile, Hamdok reviewed the report of a committee investigating the police assault on peaceful protesters on February 14. About 53 civilians were injured when police used empty tear gas canisters and batons to disperse a peaceful march calling for popular demands. After the incident, Prime Minister decided to form an investigation committee headed by the Attorney General Taj al-Sir al-Hebr to probe the incidents. The committee concluded that the police used excessive force when dealing with the protesters, confirming it found several varying injuries. The committee also listened to a number of witnesses who confirmed the incidents. It recommended investigating and holding police officers accountable, adding that police units should be briefed on human rights to raise awareness on the civil rights and freedoms guaranteed under the constitution and international laws. The report called for reviewing various procedural immunities and law amendments to allow investigation of violations that may occur. It also called for the promotion and protection of protests and demonstrations as guaranteed by the constitution and international treaties. The report stressed the importance of imposing central control on the forces during the demonstrations and called the police to balance between necessary security measures, and freedom and the right to protest, while maintaining the police's right to defend themselves.

Sadr Says Trump Made Coronavirus, Rejects Any US Treatment
Baghdad /Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 March, 2020
Leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr accused US President Donald Trump of spreading the coronavirus, describing him as the enemy of "God and humanity."Sadr rejected any treatment developed by US medical companies saying: “We accept none of your companies' treatments.”He slammed in a tweet Trump's statement about the great job the US administration is doing to fight COVID-19. Addressing Trump, he said: “You and the likes of you are the main cause behind the outbreak, in particular since those who are suffering from the virus are against the US.” Earlier, Sadr urged Iraqis to adhere to the health and medical measures concerning coronavirus, which infected dozens in the country, saying it was a “jural duty.” He also warned against spreading rumors about the virus. Sadr praised the medical staff dealing with coronavirus patients, saying their work is similar to jihad, calling on them to perform their duties by keeping personal interests aside. The Iraqi Health Ministry announced Wednesday that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country increased to 68 cases, with 8 deaths and 15 recovered patients. The ministry’s laboratories diagnosed two new cases, one in Karbala and the other in Najaf. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Border Ports Authority closed the country's land borders with Iran and Kuwait starting mid-March as part of its precautionary measures to limit the spread of coronavirus. Kurdistan Regional Government canceled Nowruz celebrations scheduled later this month for concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, and added in a statement, that it will impose restrictions on citizens' travel and commercial activities.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 11-12/2020
The Oil Price Crash: Bad News for Putin's Ambitions in the Middle East
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/March 12/2020
Last week's dramatic fall in the value of global stock markets was prompted, in part, by Moscow's decision at the end of last week to end its cooperation with the Saudis to agree to new oil production targets, a measure designed to maintain global oil prices at a sustainable level.
The Saudi response, to launch an oil price war against Moscow, was clearly not the outcome the Russians had been anticipating.
"The oil price war is going to be a game changer for the Middle East," a senior advisor to the Saudi royal family told me earlier this week. "The Russians rely on their oil revenues to fund their military activities in Syria. But if the oil revenues collapse, then they will no longer be able to afford these long and costly wars."
Russia now find itself involved in a bitter oil price war with Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest oil producer and largest oil exporter.
Russia's refusal to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia on global oil quotas could ultimately have a disastrous impact on the Kremlin's long-term ambitions of extending its influence in the Middle East.
Last week's dramatic fall in the value of global stock markets was prompted, in part, by Moscow's decision at the end of last week to end its cooperation with the Saudis to agree to new oil production targets, a measure designed to maintain global oil prices at a sustainable level.
The Saudi response, to launch an oil price-war against Moscow, was clearly not the outcome the Russians had been anticipating.
Thus, instead of guaranteeing Russia's market share in the global oil market, which had been Moscow's primary objective at last week's meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Vienna, the Russians now find themselves involved in a bitter price war with Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest oil producer and largest oil exporter.
The consequences of the fall-out between Moscow and Riyadh could have a profound impact not only on the Russian economy, but also on Russian President Vladimir Putin's wider ambitions to promote Russian influence throughout the globe, especially in the Middle East.
The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenues from the country's vast energy resources. But a combination of increasingly effective US sanctions, as well as the general slowdown in the global economy caused by the coronavirus epidemic, has resulted in dramatic falls in the value of the rouble, with Moscow's finances now coming under increased pressure as a result of Saudi Arabia's decision to launch an oil war against Russia.
The primary motivation behind the Saudi move is to protect its own share of the global oil market, which is under threat from a combination of softening demand and the renewed strength of the American oil industry. Because the Saudis enjoy low oil production costs of around $6-7 a barrel, they are able to cope with lower oil prices, while countries like Russia, which have much higher extraction costs, need global prices to be at least $50 a barrel to make a profit. Thus the Saudi price cut, which saw oil prices fall to around $31 a barrel, will hit the Russian economy hard.
The other important consideration for the Saudis, though, is that, by undermining the strength of the Russian economy, they will force the Kremlin to rethink its ambitions on the world stage, especially its involvement in the Middle East, where Moscow's main allies are Iran and the Assad regime in Syria.
Previously Riyadh had tried to persuade Moscow that its interests would be better served by working with the Saudis rather than their long-standing rivals in Tehran, which was the reason Saudi ruler King Salman invited Mr Putin to a state visit in Riyadh last October.
Since then relations between the two countries have soured as a result of the key role the Russian military has played in helping the Assad regime to regain control of Idlib province, the last remaining rebel stronghold in northwestern Syria. The Saudis, who are committed to overthrowing the Assad regime, support some of the rebel groups fighting in Idlib, and are bitterly opposed to Russia's involvement in the conflict.
The Saudi calculation now, therefore, is that with the Russian economy suffering as a result of the oil price war, the Kremlin will no longer be able to afford costly military interventions in countries such as Syria.
"The oil price war is going to be a game changer for the Middle East," a senior advisor to the Saudi royal family told me earlier this week. "The Russians rely on their oil revenues to fund their military activities in Syria. But if the oil revenues collapse, then they will no longer be able to afford these long and costly wars."
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran is Politicizing Coronavirus as a Conspiracy!
Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
Iran has become one of the most coronavirus-infected countries in the world after China. What is most concerning is that the cases they reported were fewer than those in Japan or South Korea, and even Italy, but these numbers defy reality. That is because the rate of deaths in Iran is more than 10%, which is higher than the rest of the world.
Observers inside and outside Iran are convinced that the government is hiding the truth on the coronavirus and that there is a large chance for it to turn into a pandemic. Many cases all over the world have been linked to Iran, from Afghanistan to Canada. There were large outbreaks last week. Videos on social media showed these horrifying cases despite reassurances by the government two weeks ago that the disease was being controlled. The districts most affected are Jilan, Qom and Tehran. The government announced a new campaign and sent a 300,000-member team to go from home to home and test Iranians for the disease (or at least, for symptoms).
This indicates that the government is worried about not enough people with the virus being tested, and perhaps that is out of fear of mandatory quarantine in hospitals that are short of staff and are crowded. This is one of the dangers of a lack of trust during a public health crisis. Consequently, the Basij announced that it will get rid of the illness.
Iran’s response to the virus has been mysterious so far. The regime stalled on announcing its first cases and continued to undermine the spread of the virus. However, after officials were informed of a few cases, a lawmaker announced to his constituents, in Qom, that 50 people have indeed died. Instead of starting to work, the Ministry of Health denied those numbers and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, tasked the general prosecutor to investigate the parliamentarian's claim.
Shamkhani said, “The reports being spread are not true, and hiding the truth jeopardizes national security.” The extent of the spread of the illness in Iran, a country at the heart of one of the most unstable regions in the world, has led to an explosive uncertainty in the Middle East. Iran faces many challenges internally and externally, from internal opposition to a regional reaction to its influence in the area and pressures by the United States.
The regime’s response to this crisis will likely weaken it on all those fronts. According to some sources, security service employees were sent to hospitals to stop healthcare workers from exchanging information on the number of cases and deaths. This information is now considered a “national security threat” and is punishable by law. The infection is clearly spreading to the higher officials in the Iranian government. On
February 25, the Deputy Minister of Health, Iraj Harichi, announced that he was infected and he had personally undermined the crisis repeatedly. He was seen coughing and sweating heavily during a press conference and the video went viral. Harichi also gave a live interview on state TV a day before he was diagnosed and wiped his nose with his hand and coughed without covering his mouth, which is worrying.
In addition to covering the truth, it seems that officials are not as aware of precautionary measures as one would hope. The virus has since spread even more. According to one report, 23 MPs have been infected with the coronavirus, which is around 8% of all parliamentarians. Until now, three high-ranking officials have died of the virus, including a close advisor to the Supreme Leader. Another official is Masoumeh Ebtekar, the Vice President of Iran for Women and Family Affairs, who was known as “Sister Mary” in 1979 during the American hostage crisis.
The feeling that Iran is not telling the truth comes after the huge demonstrations against the regime, and after another trick played by the regime when in January the Revolutionary Guards shot down a Ukrainian civilian plane above Tehran. It took a few days before the regime admitted its responsibility. Observers claim that Iran is responsible for spreading the virus in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Oman, Lebanon, the UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia through travelers from Iran. Lack of trust in how they are addressing the outbreak has pushed people to publicly and cynically speak against the regime.
During that time, President Hassan Rouhani claimed that the virus was a conspiracy to plant fear and shut down the country. While other countries stopped all travels to China, Iran continued. In solidarity with Wilayat al-Faqih, Lebanon did not stop travels to Iran, in a move that totally undermines the lives of the Lebanese. What adds to this crisis of the Iranian economy is that the GDP has dropped by 10% in 2019 and the International Monetary Fund predicted that the GDP may reach 0% in 2020. Additionally, Iran could lose revenues from millions of pilgrims, especially to Qom, which according to government estimates was the center for the spread of the virus in Iran. This will further weaken the economy because most pilgrims are required to stay away.
Many from Lebanon no longer want to even hear Iran’s name. Iranian businessmen are finding difficulty traveling to commercial centers. In addition, it will be difficult to find new jobs for Iranian migrants looking for jobs outside, which have helped reduce the pressure on the regime because of rising unemployment, after sending money from abroad. No wonder the Iranian currency is losing its value. Iranian influence in the region is also being weakened in Iraq after demonstrations against such influence broke out, and in Lebanon where Hezbollah fighters coming back from a pilgrimage to Iran are refusing to follow quarantine instructions, claiming that all of this is part of a conspiracy against Tehran.
It is not clear what is going to happen to Iranian militias and the Revolutionary Guards, and personnel affiliated with Iran who travel to conflict areas all over the region from Syria to Yemen and even Afghanistan and accompany Hezbollah fighters. The virus has put the regime in a bad situation. Now we are entering the unknown. The economy is still under severe pressures and the trust in the political regime is receding. There is also the spread of the virus among high officials, and needless to say that the shift of authority in the religious institution amid the current crisis will make popular mobilization difficult. Are Iranians ready to leave their homes and risk being infected? They prefer to leave the country altogether.

The Coronavirus May Be Worse Than a Natural Disaster
Anjani Trivedi/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
Everyone is wondering when China will return to work. While it may be tempting to consider past epidemics or labor strikes to gauge how quickly that could happen, the industrial shutdown from the coronavirus is looking more like a natural disaster than anything else. It may even get worse.
Chinese industrial activity remains severely depressed. One tracker shows an even sharper, albeit shorter, drop than the global financial crisis in 2008. Coal consumption at six major power plants is well below normal operating levels this time of year. Already, global suppliers’ delivery times are getting longer, particularly in Germany and Japan, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Companies that have come back online are struggling to return to full capacity. While some government controls have loosened in recent days, strict quarantines in key manufacturing hubs continue to take a toll.
Most employees remain at home, and things, in theory, could return to normal when China’s 300 million migrant workers get back to their jobs. But that’s now looking distant. Just 20% to 30% will resume before March, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. By the second quarter, that proportion will only reach 60% to 80%.
Interruptions from labor strikes, for example, will hit the bottom line and delay shipments for a few weeks, while the economic hit from severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 was relatively short-lived. By contrast, events like hurricanes, fires, and floods, have a longer-term effect. Factories get destroyed, roads become difficult to traverse and logistics routes are upended by the destruction. Firms eventually run out of inventories. Until reconstruction work is well on its way, it’s hard to get the industrial cogs turning.
Hundreds of natural disasters occur globally each year that threaten lives and livelihoods. In the US, around 40% to 60% of small businesses never reopen their doors as a result, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The ripple effects can be severe and cascade globally. A study of 41 major US disasters showed that $1 of lost sales for suppliers led to a $2.4 loss for their downstream customers.
Consider Japan’s earthquake in March 2011, the fourth-largest ever recorded. Manufacturing output fell 15 percentage points that month and didn’t recover until August. Industrial production of transport equipment tanked, flowing through to exports. Japanese automakers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. saw their domestic production slump 63% in March.
American companies with a big dependence on Japanese parts suffered, too. It took the better part of a year to get production levels back to where they were before the earthquake; US manufacturing output fell by 1% in April and stayed low for almost six months.
The coronavirus’s spread will be even more disruptive. From its large network of ports and industrial parks to the billions of yuan in subsidies, China is the nerve center of global manufacturing. In 2015, the country made up nearly a quarter of the value-added share in global imports. There simply aren’t enough alternative suppliers for the crucial, if basic, parts manufactured by China's thousands of small and medium companies. Even if Beijing provides the cash, businesses are hamstrung with the regulatory burden of reopenings and labor shortages. The network effect will be amplified and prolonged, studies have shown.
The trouble is, China Inc. won’t get back to work until these small and medium enterprises do. While the rate of return varies across sectors, manufacturers of so-called intermediate inputs, which are shipped globally, are having the hardest time. A survey of 2,240 such companies showed that more than 90% of respondents had delayed business resumption. A large portion haven’t decided when they will reopen.
Even companies like Toyota and Honda are struggling to get fully back online in China, given their dependence on local parts makers. The companies partially restarted operations at some plants as of last week.
The longer businesses are closed the higher the likelihood that supply chains start breaking down, as firms run out of inventories and stockpiles. And even when they do return, factories won’t be picking up where they left off. Volkswagen AG’s joint venture with China FAW Group Co., for instance, resumed at four plants last week, but won’t be at full steam until May. It will try to recoup losses by November, according to a production manager cited in state-run China Daily. That looks optimistic.
Meanwhile, manufacturers have few choices. Beaten by costs and pricing, companies now depend on lean supply chains. All the advances in manufacturing — such as Toyota’s famed “just-in-time manufacturing” — are premised on minimal inventory and short lead times. That looks like it could backfire. As Toyota’s president Akio Toyoda said last week, “Automobiles have a broad base, and there are various things like the status of parts supplies that you don't know until you put everything in motion again.”
It’s only natural to look for comparisons that put a bookend on this crisis. Knowing that SARS cases dwindled after a few months and the economy eventually rebounded can be comforting, to a certain degree. Yet we’re starting to see that the coronavirus outbreak has few precedents. It may only be a matter of time before this episode becomes the benchmark for future disruptions.

The US-UK Alliance Could Soon Get Much Weaker
Eli Lake/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/March 12/2020
When UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in January that he would allow China’s largest telecom company to have a limited role in erecting a 5G wireless network for his country, the US warned that there would be serious consequences. President Donald Trump has now directed his administration to figure out exactly what they might be.
The National Security Council has launched an interagency review to determine what military and intelligence assets need to be removed from the UK if Huawei participates in building the 5G network, according to US officials.
The dispute between the two allies comes down to whether a country can truly mitigate the intelligence threat posed by a Chinese company that has the ability to beam back data from its wireless network to the Chinese government. Johnson has said the UK can, by barring Huawei equipment from base stations near sensitive military and intelligence sites and capping the company’s overall participation in the 5G network.
US officials don’t believe these assurances. As Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told Congress last week: “If our NATO allies incorporate Huawei technology, it may very well have a severe impact on our ability to share information, to share intelligence, to share operational plans and for the alliance to conduct itself as an alliance.”
One senior US official working on Huawei policy told me that one of the purposes of the interagency review was to take an inventory of US equipment and bases in the UK and evaluate the risks of keeping them there. As this official said, the US needs to assess the impact of “putting smart antennas and computers run by the Chinese Communist Party all over our closest ally.” Another source familiar with the review told me that the US intention is not to punish the UK for letting Huawei into its 5G wireless network, but rather to take precautions against allowing China access to some of America’s most sensitive technology and secrets.Whatever the intention, the UK has a lot to lose if the US can no longer trust that its most sensitive intelligence and military programs can be protected from China’s prying digital eyes. For example, the UK hosts the NSA’s largest overseas base at Menweth Hill, which was essential in combing through electronic data used by the US military and CIA to target the locations of foreign terrorists. According to a 2016 story in the Intercept, that base contains powerful antennae that can intercept signals between foreign satellites. It can also use US satellites hovering above foreign countries to monitor wireless traffic below. The Huawei decision has already disrupted some plans for basing US equipment in the UK. The US is scheduled to send sensitive RC-135 surveillance planes to Royal Airforce Base Fairford by 2024. One Senate staffer told me these shipments may be on hold for now.

The US-UK Alliance Could Soon Get Much Weaker
Eli Lake/Bloomberg/March 12/2020
When UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in January that he would allow China’s largest telecom company to have a limited role in erecting a 5G wireless network for his country, the US warned that there would be serious consequences. President Donald Trump has now directed his administration to figure out exactly what they might be. The National Security Council has launched an interagency review to determine what military and intelligence assets need to be removed from the UK if Huawei participates in building the 5G network, according to US officials.
The dispute between the two allies comes down to whether a country can truly mitigate the intelligence threat posed by a Chinese company that has the ability to beam back data from its wireless network to the Chinese government. Johnson has said the UK can, by barring Huawei equipment from base stations near sensitive military and intelligence sites and capping the company’s overall participation in the 5G network. US officials don’t believe these assurances. As Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told Congress last week: “If our NATO allies incorporate Huawei technology, it may very well have a severe impact on our ability to share information, to share intelligence, to share operational plans and for the alliance to conduct itself as an alliance.” One senior US official working on Huawei policy told me that one of the purposes of the interagency review was to take an inventory of US equipment and bases in the UK and evaluate the risks of keeping them there. As this official said, the US needs to assess the impact of “putting smart antennas and computers run by the Chinese Communist Party all over our closest ally.” Another source familiar with the review told me that the US intention is not to punish the UK for letting Huawei into its 5G wireless network, but rather to take precautions against allowing China access to some of America’s most sensitive technology and secrets.
Whatever the intention, the UK has a lot to lose if the US can no longer trust that its most sensitive intelligence and military programs can be protected from China’s prying digital eyes. For example, the UK hosts the NSA’s largest overseas base at Menweth Hill, which was essential in combing through electronic data used by the US military and CIA to target the locations of foreign terrorists. According to a 2016 story in the Intercept, that base contains powerful antennae that can intercept signals between foreign satellites. It can also use US satellites hovering above foreign countries to monitor wireless traffic below.
The Huawei decision has already disrupted some plans for basing US equipment in the UK. The US is scheduled to send sensitive RC-135 surveillance planes to Royal Airforce Base Fairford by 2024. One Senate staffer told me these shipments may be on hold for now.

What is Biden Thinking about the Middle East?
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 12/2020
Here in the United States when we are not worrying about coronavirus, we monitor the presidential election campaign. We probably will know who will be the candidate from the Democratic Party after the primary elections in six states on March 10. Most analysts think that Joseph Biden will beat Bernie Sanders and become the Democratic candidate to compete against Donald Trump next November.
Foreign policy questions are not a big issue in the campaign, but it is reasonable to ask what would be the foreign policy of Biden if he wins in November? It is impossible to know exactly. Presidents often respond to crises and we don’t know what the world will be in January 2021. We only know what Biden says in the campaign and what he has done in the past and we also know who some of his advisors are. It is important to note that most of the traditional Democratic Party experts in foreign policy now support Joseph Biden.
Biden of course criticizes President Trump’s Middle East policy. One of the differences between Biden and Trump is the position on Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Biden is similarly very critical of Turkey because of its human rights violations. A Biden administration perhaps would have more difficulties with these two states than the Obama administration.
It is important to remember that after the fiasco of the war in Iraq, Biden was more cautious about using the American army in countries like Afghanistan and Syria. Biden is part of the strong majority in the Democratic Party that insist now on withdrawing the big majority of American soldiers out of Afghanistan and the Middle East. Biden rejects using the American military to change regimes.
In 2016, he defended the Obama policy of not using American forces against Bashar Assad because Washington didn’t want a repeat of the bitter experience after the fall of Saddam Hussein. He says that the American priority in the Middle East now is counter-terrorism, and he proposes using small numbers of American special operations forces in cooperation with local partners to fight al-Qaeda and ISIS.
Syria and the American partnership with the YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces is his model. It is worth noting that Biden emphasized that Trump committed a shameful act by redeploying American troops from Syrian Kurdish areas last October. I doubt Biden would leave the American bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He says that protecting maritime transit of oil tankers is still an American vital interest, and he promised that he would use American forces to protect shipping.
Sending big land forces to a new war in the Middle East is a different issue.
Biden recognizes that Iran is a big challenge for the United States and stability in the Middle East. He said that Washington should work with allies to resist expansion of Iranian influence but it is not clear how he would succeed without cooperation with Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Biden sharply criticizes Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement. Biden pledges to return to the agreement if Iran respects the conditions of the 2015 agreement. This is the position of the Democratic Party. Biden also said that he wants to use returning to the agreement to launch a diplomatic effort to strengthen the 2015 agreement and extend it.
We can expect from a Biden administration a new American participation in multilateral diplomacy with Iran and an American effort for a new nuclear agreement in exchange for cancelling some sanctions. It is important to remember that Biden, if he wins in November, cannot cancel all the sanctions against Iran. Cancelling some sanctions requires approval from the Congress.
The New York Times asked Biden if he would use American military force to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons. Biden prefers a diplomatic agreement to stop the Iranian nuclear program but he emphasized that Iranian nuclear weapons will threaten vital American interests and he stated that he would use the military if necessary to stop Iran from producing them. Biden also said during the campaign he also would use the American military in response to another state using chemical weapons or to stop another state from committing genocide. Biden like other Democratic Party leaders emphasizes diplomacy instead of military force, but some of Biden’s statements in the presidential campaign favor military force more than Obama.

Is Iran behind rocket attack that killed US-led Coalition forces in Iraq?
Rocket attack reportedly killed two US and one British personnel at Camp Taji, Iranian media boasts that a dozen members of Coalition injured.
Seth J. Frantzman/March 12/2020
Two Americans were reportedly killed on Wednesday evening when more than a dozen katyusha-style rockets hit the Taji base in Iraq where US-led Coalition troops are based. It brings to four the number of Americans killed in a week. Two US Marines were killed fighting ISIS earlier this week. However the attack on Wednesday has all the finger prints of an Iranian-backed militia attack.
The US-led Coalition said that 15 small rockets had hit Camp Taji base at 7:35pm and that assessments were ongoing.
According to Jennifer Griffin at Fox News two Americans and one British soldier were killed when 15 katyusha rockets struck the base at 7:52 in the evening. ISIS does not have the capability to fire so many rockets. The rocket attack is similar to an attack in December that killed a US contractor near K-1 base north of Kirkuk. That attack was carried out Kataib Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian militia in Iraq.
The US struck five Kataib Hezbollah targets in response. That cycle of airstrikes led to a protest at the US embassy and the US killing IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-MUhandis on January 3.
US-Iran tensions have risen over the last year. In October and November there were around a dozen rocket attacks on bases with US troops and on the Green Zone. Since the January 3 airstrike Iran carried out a ballistic missile attack on Ayn al-Assad base in Iraq, wounding more than 100 Americans who suffered cuncussions.
The US had announced this week that it was seeking to deploy air defense against missile attacks to Iraq. It has been attempting to do so since January but bureaucratic hurdles have prevented the deployment. CENTCOM head General Kenneth McKenzie was in Iraq on February 4 to request deployment of the air defense systems and said on Tuesday that air defense was on the way to Iraq. There are some 5,000 US personnel in Iraq at a half-a dozen major installations. Some 1,000 are at Ayn al-Assad with others at Camp Taji, Balad, Erbil, Baghdad and smaller posts such as Q-West. Patriot missiles will not necessarily help against the smaller rocket attacks, such as 107 mm rockets, that have been fired in the past. Mortars have also been used to harass bases such as Balad Air Force base.
Iran’s Press TV boasted about the attack on Camp Taji, noting it was also targeted on January 14. The Press TV report likely links Iran to the attack as Iran appears to have received information about the number of katyusha rockets fired. Iran says that as dozen rockets were fired. In recent weeks pro-Iranian groups have threatened the US in Iraq.
Nasral Shammari, spokesman for Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba has posted videos claiming that US soldiers are in the groups sights. Nujaba is an IRGC-linked organization and has been sanctioned by the US. The US has also sanctioned figures linked to Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and other pro-Iranian groups.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has slammed Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Organization, one of the most powerful pro-Iranian paramilitaries in Iraq. Amiri, Abu Mahdi and other members of the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units of militias were all part of the storming of the US embassy compound in December. The PMU is the umbrella group that includes all the pro-Iranian militias that are alleged to have fired rockets in the past.
The PMU is also part of the Iraqi Security Forces since 2018 when it was officially incorporated. A serious of airstrikes, which Iraq blamed on Israel, targeted PMU munitions warehouses in July and August 2019. In addition reports in 2018 and in December 2019 claimed that Iran has transferred ballistic missiles to PMU warehouses. Groups like Kataib Hezbollah play a key role in transferring Iranian munitions via Al-Qaim to Syria and onwards to Hezbollah.
After Abu Mahdi was killed in January the Iranian regime tasked Hezbollah in Lebanon with uniting the PMU in Iraq. Hezbollah sent Mohammed al-Kawtharani to Iraq in January to carry out Iran’s orders. Kartharani is from Najaf. He is close to Muqtada al-Sadr and also has worked with Amiri and others. A meeting in January in Qom with members of the PMU and Sadr also sought to cement an anti-American agenda.
It is known that Sadr returned from Qom in February due to the coronavirus outbreak. Iran sent the head of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani this week to help coordinate Iraqi activities and the removal of US forces. He held high-level meetings with political leaders, including Amiri. He said the countdown to the removal of US forces had begun, echoing sentiments expressed by Nujaba head Akram al-Kaabi in February. Shamkhani’s visit may be seen as a curtain raiser for the recent attack on US troops on March 11.
A US response to the killing is expected. The US has responded in the past after the December casualty. Iran government media’s boast that “a dozen US-led Coalition” members were injured appears to implicate Iranian groups. Stars and Stripes and other media have reported the casualty figures of two Americans and one British personnel.

World must adapt to changes brought about by coronavirus
Maria Hanif Al-Qassim, Asma I. Abdulmalik and Sara Al-Mulla/Arab News/March 12/2020
Two years ago, the world marked the 100-year anniversary of the start of the Spanish flu pandemic that claimed the lives of more than 50 million people. Historians state that, in March 1918, while the US was preparing to send its troops to Europe to fight in the First World War, a feverish soldier was reported at an infirmary in Kansas. A few hours later, hundreds of soldiers fell ill with the same flu-like symptoms. Other soldiers would then transmit the virus to Europe over the coming weeks. The crowded encampments during the war and the subsequent return of the troops to their homes caused the virus to spread swiftly to different countries and local communities.
Because of strict media censorship during the war, the European and American press were limited in their ability to report on the outbreak. Spain did not take part in the war, meaning its press was free to report on the flu that was ravaging its population — hence the illness took that country’s name.
With the advent of the current coronavirus pandemic, many articles have been published to compare the two outbreaks. Though COVID-19 has caused chaos and worldwide disruption, it is an opportunity for governments to break out of their rigid systems and shift archaic mindsets.
In countries that have had one eye on the future for the past few years, COVID-19 has forced them to take the first few steps into the future they had envisioned, albeit sooner than they had anticipated. This has been evident in a number of sectors in different countries. For instance, academic institutions in countries such as China and the UAE put all on-campus teaching activities on hold and promptly began implementing distance learning in an effort to protect students from the risk of infection. Under normal circumstances, this change would require years of planning, prototyping and unnecessary delays and discussions. Today, in a matter of weeks, governments have begun implementing innovative methods to ensure a seamless transition to learning from home.
We have also seen numerous offices and organizations eliminate traditional attendance-tracking systems and encourage flexible working hours from home. This is largely to accommodate working parents, who now need to spend more time caring for their children as they learn from home. This shift from rigid working environments to agile ones encourages reluctant organizations to focus less on the number of hours worked and more on productivity and overall health and well-being. For better or worse, it took COVID-19 to force employers to break free of traditional workplace norms. This, of course, has been made easier by modern technology, which makes adopting remote working a more efficient and effective option.
Governments and international nongovernmental organizations were quick to advise people to steer clear of crowded areas and closed spaces as a precautionary measure. Fortunately, online retail, with its quick and efficient delivery services, has become increasingly popular over the past few years. This comes as a result of years of deliberate government regulations to support and cultivate ecommerce and the gig economy, allowing them to thrive.
COVID-19 is an opportunity for governments to break out of their rigid systems and shift archaic mindsets.
If there were any doubts that we have come a long way since the Spanish flu outbreak more than a century ago, COVID-19 has been quick to eliminate them. Incredible and rapid technological advancements experienced by every sector have not only made it possible for us to work from home, learn from home, shop from home and do business from home, but they have helped us to detect and analyze the virus with previously unmatched speed and accuracy. Humanity has indeed come a long way in the past 100 years.
The outbreak has also prompted sectors to collaborate in the fight against COVID-19. At the beginning of the outbreak in Wuhan, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the country’s tech sector to help battle the epidemic, and multiple companies answered the call. With the help of the tech industry, China has deployed disinfecting robots, smart helmets, thermal imaging camera-equipped drones and advanced facial recognition software in the fight against COVID-19. Health care tech is also being used to identify coronavirus symptoms, find new treatments and monitor the spread of the disease, while advanced artificial intelligence has been used to help diagnose the disease and accelerate the development of a vaccine.
However, perhaps the most important collaborative efforts we have seen are those at governmental level, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. Historian and bestselling author of the book “Sapiens,” Yuval Noah Harari, rightly said that “the epidemic doesn’t recognize borders. It does not recognize differences in religion or political views. The real antidote is to have closer global cooperation so countries can share information more efficiently. They can learn from the experience of the first victims, they can trust each other and, most importantly, they can help each other.”
In this regard, the UAE has set an extraordinary example, putting the health of humanity above political differences by deploying an aircraft that carried 7.5 tons of medical supplies and equipment to Iran. In addition, the UAE coordinated the evacuation of hundreds of Arab nationals from Wuhan and hosted them in the newly established Emirates Humanitarian City, where they underwent medical testing and monitoring.
During the Second World War, women in the US were suddenly encouraged to take on jobs outside of their homes. This drastic change in gender roles was prompted by American men having to join the war effort in their millions, leaving behind a large number of jobs in every sector. The entrance of women to the job market has not been reversed since, despite the specific circumstances that triggered it being long gone. Similarly, the changes brought about by COVID-19 will also have a long-lasting impact on our lives — be it through changes in industry, social norms, employment, learning, geopolitics and more. Disruptors to human life don’t always come in positive forms, but it’s up to us to adapt and even thrive because of them.
*Maria Hanif Al-Qassim is an Emirati from Dubai who writes on development, gender and social issues. Twitter: @maria_hanif
*Asma I. Abdulmalik is an Emirati civil servant and a writer interested in gender and development issues. Twitter: @Asmaimalik
*Sara Al-Mulla is an Emirati civil servant with an interest in human development policy and children’s literature.

Crisis looms as Iran unable to afford its proposed budget
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 12/2020
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani introduced his 2020-2021 budget bill to the country’s parliament (Majlis) late last month, only for lawmakers to reject it. The budget was then referred to the Guardian Council for approval under instruction from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This was another authoritarian move by Khamenei to circumvent the nation’s parliament in order to achieve his parochial objectives.
Iran’s budget bill should normally be approved by March 21 each year, paving the way for the central bank to implement monetary and credit policies to correspond with it. However, there are several crucial problems with the 2020-2021 budget bill.
First of all, although the theocratic establishment was hoping to gain revenue in the next year without relying heavily on oil exports, Rouhani has based the funding of his budget on several unrealistic parameters, including the sale of roughly 500,000 barrels of oil per day. This is a massive overestimation.
Before the US pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal and began taking a tougher stance toward the ruling clerics of Iran, Tehran was exporting more than 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Iran’s oil exports have since dropped to below 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) — a decline of more than 90 percent.
Even Asian countries or those governments that Iran could generally rely on for buying its oil have significantly decreased their imports from Tehran due to US pressure and the White House’s decision not to extend its waivers for Iran’s eight biggest oil buyers (China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea). In fact, the Iranian regime has become so desperate to sell oil that it has been offering unprecedented discounts to its Asian oil-buying customers. Furthermore, with the spread of coronavirus, China’s economy appears to be slowing down, and its need for oil imports will most likely decline too.
The second problem with the budget bill is the heavy reliance on accumulating revenue — up to 175 trillion tomans ($41 billion) — from taxes, which is an approximate increase of 25 percent compared to last year’s budget. Where will the regime get this tax revenue from in order to meet its budget’s needs?
People at the top — the billionaires, celebrities and the wealthiest organizations and companies — do not pay taxes thanks to widespread corruption, nepotism and unjust laws. The richest institutions, which are mainly owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Office of the Supreme Leader, such as Astan Quds Razavi and Setad, are granted tax exemptions and technically operate outside the formal economy. The head of the State Tax Organization Omid Ali Parsa referred to the 300,000 people in Iran who each have a billion tomans in income, saying: “These billionaires are under the tax rule but more than 50 percent of them don’t pay tax; in fact, these people have no file in the State Tax Organization.”
As a result, the regime will most likely target the ordinary people because, whenever Iran’s leaders have faced economic challenges and sanctions, they have redirected the financial pressure on to the ordinary citizens who make up the majority of the population. But those from the lower and middle classes are already suffering economically. In November last year, the regime made an unexpected decision to increase gasoline prices by 50 percent. Protests spread across the country and some protesters who blocked the roads were heard shouting: “Gasoline is more expensive, the poor have become poorer.” Iran’s devalued currency has also made every basic commodity more expensive and put significant pressure on the ordinary people, but not the wealthy.
Whenever Iran’s leaders have faced economic challenges, they have redirected the financial pressure on to ordinary citizens.
In addition, as Iran is at the center of the coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, small businesses are being forced to close, which means their income will decline and the amount of taxes they pay will go down too. As Iran’s state-run daily Kayhan acknowledged: “The persistence of the recession will not only lead to further declines in income and livelihoods, but also a large portion of the government's tax revenue projected in the 2020-2021 budget will not be reached and exacerbate the previous deficit. Managing the fight against such a phenomenon should be considered beyond ‘public health’ management and its negative socioeconomic implications should not be overlooked in the national economy.”
For these reasons, Iran is facing a serious economic crisis as it cannot fund its 2020-2021 budget. The bankruptcy of the regime poses a great risk to its hold on power.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Since agreement with U.S., Taliban has attacked Afghan forces in 27 of 34 provinces
Bill Roggio/FDD/March 12/2020
The Taliban has launched attacks in against Afghan security forces in 27 of the country’s 34 provinces since it signed an agreement with the U.S. that facilitates the withdrawal of American troops. Many of these operations are not “small, low-level attacks,” as General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff characterized them last week.
The Taliban has now claimed credit for 147 attacks since resuming offensive operations against Afghan security forces on March 3, just three days after signing what many have wrongly characterized as a “peace agreement.”
That reported number of attacks – and percentage of provinces hit – may actually be on the low end.
The Taliban claimed credit for those attacks in statements released on Voice of Jihad, its official website which is published in English, Dari, Pashto, Urdu, and Arabic. This number is merely a subset of the attacks carried out by the Taliban; these are only the attacks the Taliban chose to publicize. Note that while the Taliban often exaggerates the result of its operations, it rarely lies about the attacks themselves.
The Taliban operations have occurred nationwide, in 27 of the country’s 34 provinces, with the exception of Baymian, Daykundi, Ghor, Nuristan, Panjshir, Samangan, and Takhar provinces.
These expansive operations are being not carried out by what U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper characterized last week as Taliban “hard-liners” who were failing to honor a reduction in violence agreement. In fact, the Taliban’s official spokesmen has stated that the group was not bound to maintain a reduction in violence, and vowed to resume attacks against Afghan forces. They have done just that. [See FDD’s Long War Journal report, U.S. military perplexed by Taliban living up to letter of agreement.]
Rather, the Taliban’s pattern of operations is clear evidence of a systematic effort by the group to resume violence across the country and put additional pressure on an already overstretched Afghan military and police.
Based on the Taliban’s claimed attacks, Helmand remains the most violent province, followed by Balkh, Kandahar, Kunduz and Nangarhar. These five provinces have consistently seen the most violence in Afghanistan.
Downplaying the Taliban’s military operations
Last week, General Milley downplayed the Taliban attacks as largely inconsequential while testifying to the Senate Armed Services Committee. The Taliban was, per its agreement with the U.S., not attacking American forces, but only Afghan forces.
Milley said the Taliban violence consisted of “small, low-level attacks out at checkpoints, etc.,”
“Of significance: There’s no attacks on 34 provincial capitals; there’s no attacks in Kabul; there’s no high-profile attacks; there’s no suicide bombers; there’s no vehicle-born suicide [bombs]; no attack against U.S. forces; no attack against the coalition,” Milley optimistically noted. “There’s a whole laundry list of these things that aren’t happening.”
However, based on the Taliban reports, the group has conducted several significant ambushes, firefights and roadside bombings against Afghan forces in nine provincial capitals: Farah City, Gardez, Ghazni, Jalalabad, Kunduz City, Lashkar Gah, Maiden Shahr, Pul-i-Khurmi, and Tarin Kot.
While these attack may seem less than high profile, they are no less deadly to the beleaguered Afghan security forces. Additionally, as FDD’s Long War Journal has noted for years, the Taliban has focused much of its fighting in Afghanistan’s rural districts to position itself to attack Afghan forces after the U.S. military withdrawals.
The Taliban effectively controls districts that surround several provincial capitals, as well as the roadways that lead into these capitals. Farah City, Ghazni City, Kunduz City, Lashkar Gah, Maimana, and Tirin Kot are all essentially surrounded by the Taliban.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.
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Al Qaeda’s West African branch seeks French withdrawal, then negotiations
Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/March 12/2020
Al-Qaeda’s branch in West Africa, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM, or the “Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims”), has released a two-page statement setting forth its position on negotiations with the Malian government. If French and other supposed “occupation” authorities are ejected from the country, then the jihadists will sit down for talks.
JNIM’s position is eerily similar to the Taliban’s stance in talks with the U.S. The Taliban agreed to a withdrawal deal with American representatives on Feb. 29, but refused to engage in “intra-Afghan talks” until the U.S. had set a timetable for withdrawing all of its and NATO’s forces. Of course, such a withdrawal greatly increases the jihadists’ chances of success.
JNIM, like the Taliban, seeks to establish an Islamic emirate in Mali and the surrounding countries. France intervened in 2013, after JNIM’s predecessor groups, operating as part of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) network, seized much of Mali and began laying the groundwork for their jihadist regime.
Formed in 2017, JNIM is openly loyal to AQIM’s leadership, Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Taliban’s emir.
Al-Qaeda portrays itself as a populist movement
The two-page statement released by JNIM’s media arm, az-Zallaqa, is addressed to “our Muslim brothers [in] the land of Mali.” It is titled, “Regarding the Calls for Negotiations,” and was released in both Arabic and English.
JNIM attempts to capitalize on popular discontent, with the statement’s authors writing that they’ve “followed” the peoples’ “massive marches,” “angry protests,” and “steadfast sit-ins asking for the exit of the French occupiers and all kinds of invaders — whether they are under the cover of the European Union or what is called the United Nations — from this good land,” Throughout the message, JNIM labels France’s involvement an “occupation,” arguing that foreign interference, and not the jihadists’ war, is the true source of widespread anger.
The statement’s populist motif is evident. JNIM lauds the “glorious people” across all of Malian society, from all ages and social strata, claiming that that have “become more aware, like the other Muslim peoples who rose against the treacherous alliance of invaders and tyrants.” The organization blames France and its allies entirely for the “seven lean years” since 2013, laying responsibility for the deaths of “thousands of youths” solely at Western feet — while ignoring the toll of the jihadists’ own attacks.
Although the message is peppered with benign, liberal-sounding phrases — including words such as “free societies,” “freedom,” “dignity” and “noble concept of politics,” “right for self-determination,” and “liberty” — the authors cannot completely hide their intentions. “All good things are in the Shari’ah of our Lord,” JNIM writes, thereby reiterating the commitment to implementing Islamic law across the land. This is also the Taliban’s chief goal in Afghanistan. JNIM men add that their statement was crafted in such a manner that it “does not disagree with the Shari’ah of our Exalted Lord.”
JNIM’s leaders say they “have heard” the peoples’ “repeated” requests for the Bamako government to hold negotiations and dialogue with the mujahideen, because you care for the trial imposed on us with the Crusader French occupiers to end.” The al-Qaeda jihadists allege that a “corrupt political class” has assisted foreign forces as they “divide and conquer” and “pit the tribes against one another.”
Thus, JNIM claims to represent the “Muslim people,” writing that it is willing to act in such a manner that the jihadists “extend the role of affection between us and other brothers and sons.”
“No pre-conditions” — except one
Within this selective, populist framing, JNIM’s leaders say they are will to talk to the Malian government with “no pre-conditions.” But that isn’t really true.
“There can be no talking about negotiations under the shade of occupation, before the departure of all French forces and their followers from Mali as a whole, before it halts its aggression and its overt and covert interference in our affairs, just as we do not get involved in their affairs,” the statement reads.
JNIM demands that the Malian government, if it is seriously interested in serving “the interest of the Malian people,” would side with the people “in their legitimate pursuit of freedom from direct occupation.” JNIM further insists that the government “withdraw its formal invitation” for the “entry” of French and other forces, declaring “openly an end to the presence of Barkhane and MIUSMA troops on their territories.”
“Only then will you, our proud people, find us to be the one who cares most about peace, stability, progress, and improvement of your living conditions in all aspects of life such as health, education, housing, and employment opportunities,” JNIM’s leadership claims. “It is then that we will respond to any call to negotiations with the Bamako government, because that will serve the country and the subjects.”
Al-Qaeda seeks jihadist governance
AQIM and its subordinate groups, including JNIM, have long sought to establish a jihadist government in Western Africa. Al-Qaeda correspondence found by Rukmini Callimachi, then of the Associated Press and now of The New York Times, shows that AQIM considered multiple strategies for building an al-Qaeda style government. As FDD’s Long War Journal has written previously, one especially important document for understanding al-Qaeda’s thinking is a letter written by AQIM’s emir, Abdulmalek Droukdel, to the shura council of Ansar Dine, which AQIM used as its local face. Ansar Dine’s leader, Iyad Ag Ghaly, went on to lead JNIM. Ansar Dine merged with other al-Qaeda groups to form JNIM in 2017.
Like Osama bin Laden, Droukdel surmised that Western forces could quickly topple any jihadist state. So he was concerned with building local support for the jihadists’ efforts, such that the new entity could overcome the many hurdles it would face.
Droukdel concluded that AQIM had “two missions” and combining them created a “true dilemma.” AQIM wanted to both preserve the “Azawad Islamic project,” meaning the effort to build an Islamist state, and also continue its “global jihadi project.” The latter was a reference to AQIM’s commitment to carrying out terrorist operations throughout the region.
Droukdel and his advisors came up with two proposals — both of which were intended to mask al-Qaeda’s plans, so as to avoid international scrutiny as much as possible while building local legitimacy. In the first scenario, AQIM would subordinate itself to the local ruler. AQIM would “be under the emirate of Ansar Dine” such that AQIM’s “emir would follow their emir” and AQIM’s “opinion would follow their opinion.” This would be the case for all “internal activity,” meaning “all activity connected to participating in bearing the responsibilities of the liberated areas.” But all “external activity” connected to the “global jihad…would be independent of them (Ansar Dine)” and AQIM “would ensure that none of that activity or its repercussions is attributed to them [Ansar Dine], as care must be taken over negative impacts on the project of the state.”
FDD’s Long War Journal assesses that this is precisely the same model employed by the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. So it is no accident that AQIM and JNIM have considered pursuing this same course.
In Droukdel’s “second proposal,” some of al Qaeda’s mujahideen “would be set aside and put under the complete control of the emir of Ansar Dine to participate in bearing the burden of running the affairs of the liberated cities.” The remaining al Qaeda members would be “completely independent of Ansar Dine and its activity would be limited to jihadi action outside the region.”
AQIM came up with these plans before France interrupted its state-building project in 2013. But JNIM is following a version of these plans, seeking to further embed itself within the local fabric while also openly embracing al-Qaeda’s global jihadist ideology.
Al-Qaeda has long approved of negotiating with “apostates”
Although it may seem odd that an al-Qaeda group would be willing to negotiate with the Malian government, the organization’s jurisprudence has long allowed for flexibility in this regard.
For instance, files recovered in Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound show that AQIM considered a truce with the Mauritanian government. AQIM referred the matter to bin Laden’s senior lieutenants and they helped draft the truce’s terms. In exchange for freedom to operate, al-Qaeda would refrain from conducting terrorist attacks inside Mauritania itself. [See FDD’s Long War Journal report, Osama Bin Laden’s Files: Al Qaeda considered a truce with Mauritania.]
After the U.S. government released that set of files in 2016, Abu Hafs al-Mauritani, a senior al-Qaeda ideologue in pre-9/11 Afghanistan, told the press that AQIM had in fact reached an accommodation with the Mauritanian government.
Therefore, al-Qaeda has long been willing to use negotiations — even with so-called “apostate” governments — to advance its interests in Africa.
Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal.
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In the Middle East, it’s the Qom Virus, thanks to Iran’s incompetence
Jordan Schachtel/Al Arabiya/March 12/2020
The coronavirus epidemic is devastating Iran more than any other country in the region, and sadly, it hasn’t come as much of a surprise to those familiar with the incompetence of the mullahs who rule the Islamic Republic.
On Wednesday, Iranian authorities reported that there were 9,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the country. They also reported that the death toll spiked 600 percent, moving from 62 to 354 deaths as a result of the epidemic. Moreover, Iran’s senior vice president and two other top officials have contracted the virus, AP reported.
These high numbers still need to be taken with immense skepticism, especially given that many experts and even Islamic Republic authorities have dismissed them as being too low. Videos have emerged of bodies lining the streets, and given that Tehran has consistently attempted to sweep the issue under the rug. But even if the numbers are accurate, the admitted spike in casualties and confirmed cases showcases that the regime continues to botch its response to the outbreak, and makes Iranians the victims of their government’s incompetence.
While Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors were instituting proactive policies meant to stop the outbreak, such as temporarily halting pilgrimages, limiting inbound tourism, and encouraging social distancing, authorities in Iran took a nonchalant and dismissive approach to the initial outbreak.
Tehran first denied that there was any crisis whatsoever and even proclaimed that no one in the country was at a real risk of contracting the disease. When it became obvious that the coronavirus had infiltrated Iran, Islamic Republic authorities acknowledged the reality but proceeded with the public relations strategy of minimizing the impact on the country. Both in its external communications to the world and its internal statements to Iranian citizens, Tehran officials refused to acknowledge the severity of the problem at hand.
The negligence and deficiencies of Islamic Republic authorities has had implications for the entire region. Although the coronavirus is believed to have originated in Wuhan, China, many in the Middle East have taken to describing the coronavirus outbreak in the region as the “Qom virus.” This is not just because tensions are high, coupled with longstanding regional grievances. There are statistical reasons for this new label. The Iranian city of Qom is the regional epicenter of the outbreak. Iran, not China, has been pinpointed as the source of the coronavirus cases in neighboring countries. In recent days, medical officials in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, and elsewhere have pinpointed Iran, and not China, as the source of their infected coronavirus patients.
It doesn’t take a PhD in microbiology to figure out why the coronavirus outbreak is devastating Iran, and specifically, the holy city of Qom. Qom is a city visited by millions of Shia pilgrims from all over the world each year, which should make it a major and obvious priority item when it comes to managing global epidemics.
Saudi Arabian officials provided a roadmap to the rational response to this vulnerability when they recently decided to limit pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina. Yet Islamic Republic leaders took the exact opposite approach. They encouraged people to continue visiting Qom. In the early stages of the outbreak in Iran, an influential cleric and representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Iranians that Qom was a “place of healing,” insinuating that there is not only nothing to worry about, but that the city itself had healing qualities that could help people suffering from the coronavirus. Another cleric offered bizarre, pseudoscientific actions as a means to “cure” Iranians of the coronavirus. The results have been both predictable and disastrous for the civilian population.
The people of Iran are used to having to suffer because of the inadequacies of Tehran’s leadership, but now, the region as a whole is experiencing the tragic impact of the coronavirus-bungling regime.