LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Be sure that Almighty God shows no partiality
Letter to the Galatians 02/01-07/:”Then after fourteen years I went up again to Jerusalem with Barnabas, taking Titus along with me. I went up in response to a revelation. Then I laid before them (though only in a private meeting with the acknowledged leaders) the gospel that I proclaim among the Gentiles, in order to make sure that I was not running, or had not run, in vain. But even Titus, who was with me, was not compelled to be circumcised, though he was a Greek. But because of false believers secretly brought in, who slipped in to spy on the freedom we have in Christ Jesus, so that they might enslave us we did not submit to them even for a moment, so that the truth of the gospel might always remain with you. And from those who were supposed to be acknowledged leaders (what they actually were makes no difference to me; God shows no partiality) those leaders contributed nothing to me. On the contrary, when they saw that I had been entrusted with the gospel for the uncircumcised, just as Peter had been entrusted with the gospel for the circumcised.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2020
Rating Agencies Warn Lebanon over $1.2 Billion Loan Default
Nephew of Parliament Police Chief Held for Firing at Kataeb HQ
Report: Cabinet to Discuss Economic Plan, ‘Capital Control’
Wazni: Lebanon Foreign Reserves More than $20 Billion
Lebanon Records First Coronavirus Death
MoPH accredits new laboratories to test for coronavirus at LBP 150,000
Lebanon reports its first coronavirus-related death
Aoun Says Govt. Must Devise Plans for Debt and Restructuring of Banks
Oueidat Hears Testimonies of Banks Counsels, Owners, Chairmen
Eleven new coronavirus cases and one recorded casualty in Lebanon/Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 10/2020
Lebanon Banks Agree to Ease Some Curbs on Cash-Starved Depositors
Lebanon: Requesting IMF's Help Heralds Political Clash
Lebanese Parliament Shut For A Week Over Coronavirus Fears
Jumblatt Accuses Govt. of Using ‘Tools of Totalitarian Darkness’
Strong Lebanon Bloc meets in periodic session to discuss financial situation
Abdel Samad after cabinet session: Public debt must be restructured, reform plan pursued
Wazni meets French diplomat over economic situation
Kataeb chief tackles overall situation with Algerian ambassador
Lebanon, the Dilemmas of a Monumental Unraveling
Charles Elias Chartoun/March 10/2020
In Lebanon, Criticism Of New Government: A Puppet Government Controlled By Hizbullah That Won't Extricate Country From Its Crisis/MEMRI/March 10/2020
Lebanon faces mayhem after defaulting on its debt/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 10/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 10-11/2020
UN Security Council endorses US-Taliban peace deal
Afghanistan’s President Ghani signs decree to release Taliban prisoners
Coronavirus in Iran: Senior member of Khamenei’s office reportedly infected
US urges Iran to release American prisoners amid coronavirus outbreak
SOHR: Four Syrian Provinces Hit With Coronavirus Under Regime's Secrecy
Iraqi Woman Accuses Moqtada Al-Sadr of Killing Her Only Son
Palestine Boosts Measures After Recording New Coronavirus Cases in Bethlehem, Tulkarem
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Fatah Member Released from Detention after Criticizing Palestinian President
Activists, Lawyers Slam Extended Detention of Journalist, 3 Protesters in Algeria
Yemenis Accuse UNMHA Chair of Turning Blind Eye to Houthi Violations
LNA Says Sarraj Govt, Militias Preparing to Launch Major Offensive
Tunisian Interior Ministry Proposes Severe Penalties for Glorifying Terrorism
Attempted Assassination Targeting Hamdok Receives Arab, Int'l Condemnation
168 Coronavirus Deaths in Italy in One Day, Toll outside China Passes 1,000
New York Deploys National Guard to Fight Coronavirus
Tunisia Arrests 5 over Attack near U.S. Embassy
Germany to Open Syrian 'Crimes against Humanity' Trial in April
Sudan moves against Omar al-Bashir loyalists after assassination attempt.

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 10-11/2020
How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers/Justin Fox/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 10/2020
Countries Can Still Get Rich From Manufacturing/Noah Feldman/Bloomberg/March 10/2020
Iran: The Mullahs' Coronavirus Lies/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/March 10/2020Can Turkey Defeat Russia's Army in Syria/Michael Peck/The National Interest/March 10/2020
More red zones like Italy’s are coming/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/March 10/2020
Children are neglected victims of Syria’s war/Mona Yacoubian/Al Arabiya/March 10/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 10-11/2020
Rating Agencies Warn Lebanon over $1.2 Billion Loan Default
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Credit ratings agency Moody's warned Tuesday that Lebanon's first-ever default on paying its sovereign debt will likely lead to significant losses for private creditors as well as serious implications for the country's banking sector. Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Saturday said the government will suspend payment of $1.2 billion in loans that matured Monday. Diab said Lebanon's foreign currency reserves "have reached a critical stage," leading the government to suspend its debt payment so it can continue providing basic commodities to the Lebanese people. Lebanon has been engulfed in a financial and economic crisis that has worsened since October, when the country was rocked by nationwide protests over widespread corruption and decades of mismanagement by the ruling political class. Street demonstrations have been minimal since the outbreak of the new coronavirus. The default marked a new chapter in Lebanon's economic crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny Mediterranean country, risking legal action by lenders that could further aggravate and push Lebanon's economy toward financial collapse. Diab said sovereign debt reached $90 billion or 170% of GDP, making it one of the highest in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 is at $4.6 billion. Moody's, which downgraded Lebanon's ratings last month to Ca from Caa2, said the decision to defer payment of the March 9 international bond maturity "reflects the country's extreme financial and economic pressures and the move will likely lead to significant losses for private creditors." "A sovereign default would have a significant negative impact on banks' financial health, and further undermine the economy and the sustainability of the peg," said Elisa Parisi-Capone, a Moody's vice president and the report's author.
She was referring to the local currency, which had been pegged to the dollar since 1997 but in recent months lost up to 60% of its value on the parallel market. Local banks, who are a main lender to the Lebanese government, have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers since November. The statement by Moody's came a day after Fitch Ratings downgraded Lebanon's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to C from CC. Fitch said that the $1.2 billion Eurobond payment maturing on Monday has a grace period for paying the principal of seven days. Failure to make the payment during the grace period will put the sovereign into Restricted Default, or RD, and the specific bond into Default, or D. Lebanon's economy has been hammered over the past years by the war in neighboring Syria, the flow of more than a million Syrian refugees and a drop in remittances from the Lebanese diaspora.

Nephew of Parliament Police Chief Held for Firing at Kataeb HQ
Naharnet/March 10/2020
A man who opened fire at dawn Sunday at the headquarters of the Kataeb Party in Beirut’s Saifi area was arrested on Tuesday, TV networks said. MTV said the man, Yahia Dimashq, was arrested by the Intelligence Branch of the Internal Security Forces after it turned out that the car from which the shots were fired belongs to him. Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile said that Dimashq is a nephew of Parliament Police chief Youssef Dimashq, aka Abu Khashbeh, a powerful security aide of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. It said he was apprehended in the Beirut southern suburb of Msharrafiyeh.MTV meanwhile published a video showing Dimashq being arrested by armed ISF agents. Kataeb’s iconic building in downtown Beirut was hit by six gunshots according to a statement issued by the party.

Report: Cabinet to Discuss Economic Plan, ‘Capital Control’
Naharnet/March 10/2020
The government is expected to meet on Tuesday in a session dedicated to discuss the financial and monetary situation and an economic plan to salvage crisis-hit Lebanon from an unprecedented economic and liquidity crisis. Measures to counter the spread of coronavirus diseases that left thousands dead worldwide, and infected 41 so far in Lebanon will also be discussed, according to reports. According to information obtained by MTV station, "the meeting will not highlight the issue of appointments." A ministerial source told MTV that the financial and monetary file will occupy the largest part of the discussion in the session, which will discuss referring the Capital Control Law proposal to the Parliament. The Cabinet will convene at Baabda Palace.

Wazni: Lebanon Foreign Reserves More than $20 Billion
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Cash-strapped Lebanon’s foreign reserves stand at more than $20 billion, finance minister Ghazi Wazni said Monday, amid concerns over the country's liquidity as it stumbles towards default. The central bank “says it has $29 billion, of which it has used 7 billion to give to the banking sector” to boost its liquidity, Wazni told local broadcaster LBCI. Central bank data had put the value of foreign reserves at $35.8 billion at the end of February.  Lebanon, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-establishment protests, was due on Monday to repay a $1.2-billion Eurobond, while another $700 million matures in April, and a further $600 million is due for repayment in June. But prime minister Hassan Diab on Saturday said his government would suspend payment of the March Eurobond and seek restructuring agreements with creditors on the country’s debt pile because of plummeting foreign reserves.
Commenting on Saturday's decision, Wazni said the aim was to achieve an “orderly default” through negotiations with creditors who could pursue legal action against the state if an agreement is not reached. Lebanon's debt burden, long among the largest in the world, is now equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product. Despite its turbulent history, the small Mediterranean country has never before defaulted, but in recent months it has grappled with its worst economic turmoil since the 1975-1990 civil war. Foreign currency has become increasingly scarce, Lebanon's pound has plunged in value and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers. The government met with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund last month for technical assistance but it has not requested funds.

Lebanon Records First Coronavirus Death
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanon on Tuesday has recorded its first death from the new coronavirus, a health ministry source said. The 56-year-old was receiving treatment in a state-run Beirut hospital, the ministry source told AFP, adding that he had recently returned from Egypt, where the virus has also spread. Media reports said he was hospitalized at Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Notre Dame des Secours hospital, in Jbeil. Lebanon, already hit by economic collapse and anti-government protests, is now grappling with an outbreak of the deadly COVID-19 virus -- its latest in a long list of crises. Health Minister Hamad Hassan said last week that the country has moved beyond the phase of "containment" and was bracing for a more serious outbreak. Schools, universities, cafes, pubs and other public places have since been ordered shut over fears of the virus. Sport tournaments have been postponed and cultural events cancelled.
According to the health minister, the origins of Lebanon's cases have mostly been traced to other countries. Lebanon has said it would deny entry to non-resident foreigners arriving from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy, which are among the hardest hit by the epidemic. But domestic concern is still high amid fears that Lebanon is not equipped to face a mass outbreak. With a grinding liquidity crunch and dwindling foreign reserves, Lebanon has struggled to secure the dollars needed for medical imports even before coronavirus arrived. Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced on Saturday that the country would suspend payment on Eurobonds.

Lebanon Confirms 11 New Coronavirus Cases, Total Reaches 52
Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanon on Tuesday confirmed eleven new coronavirus cases, raising the country’s overall tally to 52. The director of the state-run Rafik Hariri University Hospital said the 11 cases were confirmed after lab tests for 202 suspected cases over the past 24 hours. Speaking at a press conference, the director said a virus patient who died Tuesday – Lebanon’s first fatality – had arrived at the hospital in a critical condition. “We offered him the internationally endorsed treatments but he suffered complications such as hypotension and high fever which resulted in the stoppage of his heart and his death,” the director added. He also announced that other hospitals should start exerting greater efforts in the battle against the COVID-19 coronavirus. The patient who died, a 56-year-old Lebanon man coming from Egypt, had been initially admitted into the Notre Dame des Secours hospital in Jbeil and Health Minister Hamad Hasan said he was not transferred in a proper way to the Rafik Hariri hospital. TV networks said he had diabetes and that his condition worsened after taking antibiotics and after his diagnosis with the coronavirus was delayed for several days. The Notre Dame des Secours hospital said the Rafik Hariri hospital had initially refused to conduct a coronavirus test for the man seeing as he had arrived from Egypt -- a country not listed as a virus hotbed at the time. The man has reportedly infected several nurses and patients at the Notre Dame des Secours hospital.

MoPH accredits new laboratories to test for coronavirus at LBP 150,000
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020 
The Ministry of Public Health announced in a statement this Tuesday "The accreditation of new laboratories – next to the Rafic Hariri University Hospital lab – to conduct coronavirus tests on suspected patients, since the Hariri Hospital is approaching its maximum capacity in terms of tests.
The newly accredited laboratories are:
The American University of Beirut.
The Saint George University Hospital.
The Rizk Hospital / Lebanese American University.
The Rodolphe Merieux Laboratory at the Saint Joseph University / Hotel Dieu Hospital.
The ministry pointed out that any other hospital or private laboratory wishing to carry out these tests must submit an application to be studied by a specialized committee, in order to obtain the approval of the ministry before starting to examine patients. The tariff will amount to a maximum of 150,000 LBP."

Lebanon reports its first coronavirus-related death
The New Arab/March 10/2020
Lebanon recorded its first death from coronavirus on Tuesday, a health ministry source said, adding that the patient had been in quarantine since returning from Egypt. A Lebanese man died on Tuesday from the novel coronavirus, a health ministry source said, marking the country's first recorded death from an epidemic that has infected 41 people nationwide. The 56-year-old was receiving treatment in a state-run Beirut hospital, the ministry source told AFP, adding that he had recently returned from Egypt, where the virus has also spread. Earlier this week, the government halted flights for non-residents from epicenters of the virus, shut schools and warned against public gatherings. Lebanon's health minister said hospitals were ready to deal with any further spread of the novel coronavirus in the country. Hamad Hassan said the cases had all either returned from an affected country or were transmitted through "close contact" with a family member or neighbour - not "local transmission". All people suffering from the COVID-19 illness are being treated at Beirut's Rafic Hariri state hospital, where 140 beds have been designated to isolate and monitor suspected cases, he added.
Hassan said measures had also been taken beyond Beirut, naming eight cities across the country where hospital wards had been put aside as Lebanon works to contain the virus nationwide. "We have designated 20 to 40 beds in each facility to follow any unexpected developments as part of a precautionary plan," he said. They include a monitoring area for patients suspected of having caught the coronavirus along with one or two quarantine units, he said. In what he described as a "positive sign", Hassan said the country's first case, a 45-year-old woman who had tested positive for the virus after visiting Qom in Iran, had now tested negative. "A second laboratory test will be conducted tomorrow, and she will be discharged and sent home if the negative result is confirmed," his ministry said earlier in a statement. That showed that "there's no need for hysterical panic", Hassan said.
On Friday, Lebanon said it would deny entry to non-resident foreigners arriving from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Schools, universities and other educational institutions have been closed until 8 March. Globally, more than 100,000 people have been infected and more than 3,800 killed since the virus first emerged in China's Hubei province late last year. Agencies contributed to this report.

Aoun Says Govt. Must Devise Plans for Debt and Restructuring of Banks
Naharnet/March 10/2020
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday said the government must devise a plan to restructure debt, plans to restructure banks and the central bank and others for financial and administrative reform as well as economic and social affairs. He said the plans must be laid out “in parallel with the negotiations with the Eurobond holders.”Aoun voiced his remarks at the beginning of a Cabinet session in Baabda. He had earlier met with Prime Minister Hassan Diab to discuss the latest developments. The session is dedicated to tackling the financial and monetary situation. A ministerial source had told MTV that the Cabinet will discuss referring the Capital Control Law proposal to Parliament. Diab announced Saturday that Lebanon “will seek to restructure its debts in a manner consistent with the national interest" through negotiations with creditors. Diab said debt restructuring is part of a wider economic rescue plan that seeks to cut state spending and save more than $350 million annually. The premier said Lebanon must now enter into debt restructuring negotiations, which "will take time, effort, and will require painful measures." The default marks a new chapter in the country’s financial and economic crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny country, risking legal action by lenders that could further aggravate and push Lebanon's economy toward financial collapse. The currency has already lost up to 60% of its value on the dollar on the black market and banks have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers. Lebanon has been suffering in recent years from a lack of economic growth, high unemployment and a drop in hard currency inflows from abroad. The financial crisis erupted amid nationwide protests over widespread corruption and decades of mismanagement by the ruling political class.

Oueidat Hears Testimonies of Banks Counsels, Owners, Chairmen
Naharnet/March 10/2020
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat on Tuesday started hearing the testimonies of the legal counsels, owners and chairmen of Lebanon’s banks over the controversial capital flight that coincided with the intensification of Lebanon's financial and monetary crisis. The National News Agency said a statement will be issued at the end of the hearing sessions. Oueidat had on Thursday suspended an order freezing the assets of 20 banks and their directors over concerns about its impact on the country's fragile economy. The order was postponed to allow for the "study of its impact on the national currency, banking transactions as well as on the money of savers and economic security," Oueidat said. Lebanon has been gripped by mass protests against the political class and banking sector even as it suffers its worst economic crisis in decades. Banks have imposed increasingly tight limits on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad as part of measures to tackle a severe liquidity crisis. But bankers stand accused of having sent millions of dollars abroad despite those limitations. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to slash salaries, dismiss staff or close. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a public debt equivalent to 150 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Eleven new coronavirus cases and one recorded casualty in Lebanon
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 10/2020
The very first registered coronavirus patient in Lebanon is said to be on her road to recovery, as she is no longer showing symptoms of the disease.
BEIRUT: Lebanon recorded its first Coronavirus casualty and 11 new cases on Tuesday. 202 suspected cases underwent the necessary laboratory examinations on Tuesday, of which 11 tested positive for the virus, raising the total local Coronavirus tally to 52, said the General Manager of Rafic Hariri University Hospital Dr. Firass Abiad, in a press conference at RHUH. As for the first recorded death from the COVID-19 in Lebanon, the deceased, 56, was a Lebanese patient who recently came from Egypt.
When symptomatic of the coronavirus, he was transferred from the Notre Dame De Secours hospital in Jbeil to RHUH. As Abiad explained, the patient came to RHUH in an already critical condition of acute pulmonary inflammation. “The patient was subjected to complications, which are hypotension and high temperature, which led to his heart stopping, and his eventual death,” he added. According to Abiad, with the increase in Coronavirus cases, the RHUH is working on raising its capacity by adding a dozen more beds within the coming three days. However, in terms of conducting tests on suspected patients, RHUH is approaching its maximum capacity. For that reason, and to cointain the virus outbreak, the Ministry of Public Health announced in a statement on Tuesday that new laboratories will be accredited to carry out coronavirus tests on suspected patients. The newly accredited laboratories are: The American University of Beirut Medical Center, The Saint George Hospital, The Rizk Hospital (Lebanese American University Medical Center), and Hotel Dieu Hospital. The ministry highlighted that any other hospital or private laboratory willing to conduct these tests must submit an application for a specialized committee to study. If the laboratory meets the requirements, it will get an approval by the ministry to start patients’ examinations. The tariff will amount to a maximum of 150,000 LBP. Additionally, with the closure of most educational, industrial, and recreational facilities in Lebanon for more than a week, the municipality of Beirut indicated in a Tuesday statement that the city’s public parks will also temporarily shut down as a preventive measure against the spread of the disease. Similarly, the Minister of Culture and Agriculture Abbas Mortada, announced that the national museum and the archeological galleries affiliated to the Ministry of Culture will also be shut down until further notice. The very first registered coronavirus patient in Lebanon is said to be on her road to recovery, as she is no longer showing symptoms.

Lebanon Banks Agree to Ease Some Curbs on Cash-Starved Depositors
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Lebanese banks Tuesday agreed to lift certain restrictions imposed last year to stem a crippling liquidity crisis, the National News Agency said.
Lebanon is grappling with its worst economic crisis in decades, as well as widespread public discontent with the political class since October.
Since September, banks have increasingly been imposing limits on withdrawals of both dollars and Lebanese pounds, as well as transfers abroad. At a meeting between State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat and bank representatives Tuesday, both sides agreed to new rules, NNA said. These include banks allowing depositors to withdraw up to 25 million Lebanese pounds a month (around $16,500 under the official exchange rate). Other measures include allowing transfers abroad in hard currency for education fees, medical bills, tax purposes, "and everything else necessary," NNA said. Banks would not be allowed to withhold any part of money freshly transferred into a Lebanese account.
There was, however, no mention of an easing of caps on withdrawals from dollar accounts, which have been squeezed down to just $100 a week at some banks. A judicial source said discussions were ongoing with the central bank over relaxing those limits.
Last week, Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim attempted to impose an asset freeze on banks in an apparent bid to pressure them, but that order was suspended by Oueidat within hours. Earlier in the week, Ibrahim separately called in 15 banks over an alleged more than 2 billion dollars in capital flight late last year. On Tuesday, Oueidat began hearing the testimonies of banks' legal counsels, owners and chairmen . Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted by more than a third on the black market, prices have risen, and many businesses have been forced to close. The Mediterranean country, one of the most indebted in the world, this weekend announced its first default on a $1.2 billion Eurobond that matured on March 9.

Lebanon: Requesting IMF's Help Heralds Political Clash
Beirut - Paula Astih/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
A new clash is expected to erupt between Hezbollah and Lebanese political forces supporting the request for financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to save the economic situation in the country. Hezbollah has publicly declared its refusal to “yield to the IMF to manage the crisis.”In this regard, member of Hezbollah’s central council, Nabil Qaouk, said that foreign aid should not be an opportunity to impose tutelage over Lebanon. He stressed the rejection of “putting our economy, society and the future of our people at the mercy of external parties." “At the same time, we are keen on reforms that encourage external parties to provide aid,” Qaouk stated. However, politicians and economists say Lebanon has no choice but to resort to the Fund. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Future Movement MP Dima Jamali said: “Requesting the assistance of the IMF became necessary and urgent.”“The refusal to resort to the Fund cannot be justified on the pretext that it will impose difficult measures and taxes, because addressing an economic crisis in a particular country is carried out according to the specific situation of that country, and the solutions of the IMF are not necessarily the same everywhere,” she added.
For his part, Rami al-Rayes, advisor to the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, pointed out that all economic, financial and monetary exits were now closed. “We have no choice but to resort to the IMF after the systematic destruction of Lebanon’s foreign policy, which led to the deterioration of relations with donor countries, especially the Gulf States,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Rayes revealed information that none of the decisions of the CEDRE Conference would be implemented unless they were coupled with the IMF’s monitoring of the reform process, as the international community has lost confidence in the Lebanese management. Financial and Economic Expert Walid Abu Suleiman pointed out that even if the Lebanese government succeeded in curbing the deficit in the State budget, the country would be forced - in light of the scarcity of foreign currency reserves - to provide hard currencies from the IMF. “The IMF was originally created to help countries with balance of payments problems,” he said, pointing to the possibility of obtaining from the Fund $8.6 billion for a period of 3 years. Writer and political analyst specializing in Hezbollah affairs, Qassem Kassir, ruled out that the party’s position was final regarding the request for assistance from the IMF. “The party is emphasizing two basic points: The first is that no help from the Fund be associated with the imposition of huge taxes, and the second is that no political conditions be linked with the assistance,” he explained. According to the Carnegie Middle East Center, Hezbollah’s refusal to resort to the IMF “may ultimately mean the collapse of Hassan Diab’s government, and Lebanon itself.”“Resorting to the IMF is no longer an option, but rather a necessity,” the center said, noting that without such decision, “Lebanon will not be able to obtain funds to support its economy, or receive the hard currency necessary to import vital necessities, such as food and fuel.”

Lebanese Parliament Shut For A Week Over Coronavirus Fears
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
The Lebanese Parliament announced on Monday that its offices in Beirut would be closed for one week as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. On Monday, Speaker Nabih Berri took a series of instructions in this regard, including the postponement of the weekly Wednesday meetings usually held at the Speakership headquarters in Ain el-Tineh. Also, the meetings of the parliamentary committees were delayed, and the lawmakers’ offices at the parliament building were shut for one week to conduct sterilization procedures. Meanwhile, sources said Lebanon witnessed less official meetings and political activities in the past few days, as part of unannounced measures to contain the spread of the virus. The Health Ministry said Monday that 41 persons have been infected with the coronavirus so far, with some recoveries and no fatalities. And while ministries and municipalities continue with their work as normal, Lebanese authorities have imposed tight measures to keep those institutions free from the virus. In this regard, sterilizers and thermometers for measuring the body temperature were being distributed to employees in some public administrations. “Public employees are attending work as normal, but they are being subject to those new measures. However, we cannot deny that fewer people were showing up at those administrations,” the source said. Lebanon already closed schools, sports clubs, nightclubs, fairs, and other venues until March 15. Authorities also suspended judicial hearings and shut down academic institutions across the country. Restaurants were exempted from this decision. However, owners are not allowed to hold parties. This week, Health Minister Hamad Hassan announced that the country is no longer in the containment phase regarding the virus.

Jumblatt Accuses Govt. of Using ‘Tools of Totalitarian Darkness’
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt on Monday launched an attack on Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government, accusing it of adopting a policy of obscurity. This is the first public criticism by Jumblatt against the current government. “What is this government hiding? Its president did not mention a word about reform… [What about] the electricity sector, protecting the industry, controlling legal and illegal borders, ignoring the coronavirus, judicial appointments... and others?” he said on Twitter. He went on to accuse the government of “spreading bankruptcy and seeking revenge against a political class through the tools of hatred and total darkness.”In contrast, Jumblatt had last week called for supporting Diab’s cabinet. “In light of these massive crises of coronavirus, electricity and Eurobonds, the government must be supported above narrow considerations, because if the void comes again, we will all fall into the unknown,” he said in a tweet.

Strong Lebanon Bloc meets in periodic session to discuss financial situation
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020 
"Strong Lebanon Bloc" on Tuesday held its periodic meeting, chaired by MP Gebran Bassil, at the FPM's headquarters in Mirna Chalouhi, to discuss the current financial situation following the government's decision to suspend Eurobonds' payment. In a statement issued in the wake of the meeting, the bloc called for coupling the Eurobonds' suspension decision with a comprehensive financial-economic plan, which includes the needed reforms to restore confidence in Lebanon and its financial system and as a basis for negotiations with local and international donors, with the aim of reaching an orderly debts restructuring to avoid more negative repercussions on the country's economy and its public and private sectors. The bloc also affirmed adherence to a free economic system, including individual initiative and free competition under the ceiling of the Lebanese laws and social justice, calling for strengthening the private sector in Lebanon and protecting it as a fundamental pillar of a productive economy. The Bloc also underlined its keenness on the independence, fairness and integrity of the judiciary, voicing its rejection of any interference in its affairs. The Bloc also called on the judiciary to exercise its powers in accordance with laws in effect.

Abdel Samad after cabinet session: Public debt must be restructured, reform plan pursued
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020  
Minister of Information, Manal Abdel Samad, said after the Baabda cabinet session that was chaired by President Michel Aoun: "Financial conditions must be strengthened, public debt must be restructured, and a reform program for growth and dealings must be pursued, along with the restructuring of the banking system."
She pointed out that "indicators for 2020 are bad," saying: "We will seek a reasonable initial surplus, and wages will remain under control."
"The Council of Ministers has met with a number of international consultants, and studied the headlines of the reform plan, from cutting spending to recovering looted money," Abdel Samad added.
"Prime Minister Hassan Diab confirmed that we will seek to develop the judicial system, implement anti-corruption laws, address water and electricity problems, and launch reforms in public institutions," she stressed.

Wazni meets French diplomat over economic situation
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020  
Minister of Finance, Ghazi Wazni, met Tuesday with Regional Director of the Department of Economy of the French Embassy in Beirut, Francois de Ricoflis. The pair reportedly discussed the bilateral economic and financial relations and the means to improve the financial situation in Lebanon.

Kataeb chief tackles overall situation with Algerian ambassador
NNA/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020  
Kataeb party chief MP Sami Gemayel, on Tuesday welcomed at the Party's Central House in Saifi the new Ambassador of Algeria to Lebanon, Abdel Karim Rkaibi, who came on a courtesy visit.
Discussions between the pair reportedly touched on the bilateral relations and most recent developments on the local and international arena.

شارل الياس شرتوني: كشف معضلات التحلل الكبير في لبنان
Lebanon, the Dilemmas of a Monumental Unraveling
Charles Elias Chartoun/March 10/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/84032/%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b4%d9%81-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%b6%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84/
The latest developments are symptomatic of the structural breakdowns that have led to the demise of whatever is left in this agonizing Republic: The endemic crisis of national legitimacy and conflicting loyalties, the recurrent trials of dysfunctional governance, the pliability to foreign interventions and its swaying impact on internal dynamics, the brittleness of economic and financial sectors in an instable environment, and the stultifying effects of destructive power politics and private interests on public policy making. The endemic instability which has repeatedly questioned Lebanon’s civil peace, constitutional governance, liberal political culture and lifestyles have permeated the Lebanese psyche and created a set of defense mechanisms which account for the survival instincts of a population used to live through alternating stages of political and civil instability, socio-economic volatility, cultural wars and intertwining internal and external conflicts. The latest episode highlights the compounded nature of the latest financial crises and their reverberations across the political, economic and social systems, highly damaging consequences, and metonymic recapitulation of the manifold existential threats which hover over the country’s future and rickety civil peace:
A- The destructive fallouts of the financial crisis are expressive of systemic deadlocks which put at stake the country’s operational sovereignty and ability to tackle them amidst ramshackle governance, imploding consensuses, and the incapacity to come up with working compromises on financial policy, in spite of the exceptional opportunities offered by the civic rebellion and the creative dynamics it elicited. The Rentier-State status that accounts for the nature of governance is no hazard, since it reflects the idosyncracies of a deeply fractured polity made up of a collection of power centers subsumed under the fiction of a Constitutional State.The nature of the public debt which has been building up throughout the last three decades, reveals the arcanes of a plundering mechanism operated by the coalesced Sunnite and Shiite oligarchies, and their ancillaries among different Christian constituencies. The contracted odious debt was deliberately initiated to cater to the concurring oligarchic power strategies, personal self enrichment and in compliance with the agendas of regional power brokers ( Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey). Rather than being spent on the assignments of post war reconstruction and integrated development, the 350 billion dollars dilapidated on staggering institutional rents ( 85/ 90 per cent ), have not yet delivered, and if so they have failed to uphold the basic standards of professional credibility. The completion of forensic auditing should help us identify the sources and venues of this monumental robbery, public mismanagement and outright violation of the rules of elementary civic boundedness and sense of the common good.
B-The Hezbollah takeover of governance with the due complicity of well crafted and micro-managed intercommunal and political coalitions, highlighted through the partnership with General Michel Aoun and his political formation, overlaps with the radius of Iranian power projections in the larger Middle East, the expanding dynamics of a self defeating Iranian imperialism undermined by an eroding national legitimacy and the demise of its foundational narratives, failed governance and systemic economic and societal breakdowns, and the hazardous outcomes of its imperial overstretch. The attempt at foreclosing governance, building stonewalling tactical alliances, and flouting the normative and operational rules of a working consociational democracy are unlikely to be managed in the long run, since they have elicited multiple oppositions, internally and externally, and are swayed by the concurring regional and international power politics, the bolting weaknesses of the Iranian regime, and the inability of Hezbollah to curb the Shiite opposition unwilling to endorse its power drive, and the illusions prompted by the fallacies of a counter-international order ( along the schemes outlined by H. Chavez and M. Ahmadinejad in the 2000 ). The intertwining dynamics of a lethal financial debacle, and the pitfalls of outsized power projections attempted by Hezbollah have proven to be non dissuasive, so far, and might be at the roots of a new wave of destructive conflicts. The statements of Hezbollah about the financial and economic crises betray the inconsistencies of its ideological worldview, economic illiteracy and the irrelevance of economics on its scale of priorities, whereas it runs a vast international underground economy, promotes the fortunes of an illegal and parallel economy, and replicates the ground rules of the predatory economics of the Iranian regime.
C- The probability of a consistent reform in Lebanon hinges upon an integrated approach whereby, the reform of political and economic governance, the overhaul of civic culture, and the delineation of developmental agendas predicated on an integrated approach based on the complementarity between the economic, social, educational and environmental variables, evolve symmetrically. The priority of financial reforms revolves around the following objectives: The recapitalization of the banking sector, the negotiated solution of the compounded debts, the recovery of the immense public heist, the reform of the banking sector in conjunction with the structural reforms of the economy mandated by the international institutions and the community of potential donor countries, the implementation of an overall plan of economic reforms congruent with the epistemological norms of the international community ( IMF, World Bank, ILO, WTO, European Bank of Development and Reconstruction,.... ), and the inevitable nexus between consolidated political stability and sustainability. The stabilization of political life, and the distancing from the disruptive political and military dynamics of an imploded Middle East, prohibitive political alliances, imaginary economic shelters, and purported segregated trade spaces advocated by Hezbollah ( Iran, Russia, Venezuela, North Korea / Syria, Iraq and Jordan ) are the preliminary conditions of a steady reformist course, and the creation of its congenial environment. Short of these prerequisites, the regressive dynamics already in place, are likely to question civil concord and compromise the chances of cumulative reforms.
The most striking feature of the systemic unraveling we are witnessing, is the brittleness of social order, its fictitious and fiduciary nature, and the centrality of social constructivism in any future attempt at recasting the matrices of statehood, governance and participatory politics. We should avoid the fallacies of “ misplaced concreteness “ and make sure to keep in sight the dialectical relationship between political and financial reforms, and the prevalence of destructive regional power politics, shaky political consensuses and their stifling role. The civic rebellion sparked last October 2019, is mandated to build a functional platform of coordination, overcome the traps of maximal aspirations and the divisiveness of ideological politics, if we were to oversee a tangible reformist course and preempt their deleterious impact on its fortunes. The actual oligarchies and ongoing power politics have already erected their defenses around the demarcation lines of their interests, regional patronages and determination to use violence and civil war threats to protect their power turfs and absconded riches. Summarily, at the end of its first centennial ( 1920-2020 ), Lebanon is experiencing the worst economic tribulations after the excruciating famine of WWI ordered by the Turkish authorities ( 1915- 1918 ) which eradicated half of the Maronite population in Mount Lebanon ( 50/ 100, 400000/ 200000 ), and left its enduring imprints on the future of the emerging polity, its internal political dynamics and geopolitical entanglements.
The decision will appease protesters who have clamored for the government to prioritize domestic concerns. But it does little to solve the nation’s financial woes.

ميمري: حكومة حزب الله ليست هي المؤهلة لإخراج لبنان من أزمته..انتقادات للحكومة وتعرية فاضحة لمرجعيتها
In Lebanon, Criticism Of New Government: A Puppet Government Controlled By Hizbullah That Won't Extricate Country From Its Crisis
MEMRI/March 10/2020
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On February 11, 2020, Lebanon's government, headed by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, secured a vote of confidence in parliament. The formation of the new government had followed prime minister Sa'd Al-Hariri's resignation in response to protests in the country against regime corruption and the economic crisis, that broke out on October 17, 2019.[1]
Once tasked with forming the government, Diab, who is supported by Hizbullah and its allies, aimed to mollify the protestors and the general public who were demanding a government not reliant on existing political elements. Pledging that it would comprise independent technocrats, the government he presented included 19 ministers, all unfamiliar names. However, most of them are not experts in the areas for which they are responsible, and nearly all of them were chosen by the March 8 camp – that is, by Hizbullah and its allies.[2]
Because of this, the newly confirmed government already faces serious opposition from protestors, who feel cheated. Demonstrations outside the parliament building immediately following the government's confirmation led to clashes with security forces.
Also critical of the new government were newspaper op-eds by public figures and columnists identified with the March 14 camp. They called on the public not to have confidence in the new government, referring to it, inter alia, as a disgraceful government and a puppet government – and not a government of independent technocrats as promised, but one dominated by Hizbullah. Some argued that it would represent Iran and the resistance axis and make it difficult to obtain aid from the U.S., Europe, and Arab countries. They also said that it would be incapable of solving Lebanon's economic problems – which include restrictions for banks on withdrawals and overseas transfers and a public debt of some $90 billion. Since this government is neither truly independent nor reformist, they added, it will not institute real reforms, tackle the security situation, or deal with the weapons illegally possessed by Hizbullah.
Anti-government protests outside parliament immediately following the confirmation of the government (Source: Al-Nahar, Lebanon, February 11, 2020)
The following are translated articles and commentary on events surrounding the confirmation of the new Lebanese government:
Al-Nahar Columnist: "Don't Give [This Government] Your Confidence"
In a column titled "Don't Give [This Government] Your Confidence" in the March 14 camp-affiliated Al-Nahar daily, Akl Awit argued that Prime Minister Diab had failed to keep his promise of an independent and professional government, and said that there should be no public confidence in it:
"The new government is no different from the one that preceded it... Those who brought its leader, its members, and its paymaster [to power] do not want it to be different, professional, free, sovereign, and independent. They do not want it to rescue the country and its people from the tragic fate that has befallen them. Were the prime minister true to himself, his commitments, his promises, and his declarations, he would have appointed ministers who are independent and experts [i.e. technocrats]. There is a vast gulf separating half of the members [of this government] from professionalism. With respect to [the claim] that it is independent of the elements [that have] controlled [Lebanon in recent years], you can say this as much as you like, [but it is far from true]. Maybe one or two ministers, and maybe, just maybe, three, at most, are the exception [to this, i.e. are independent]. But the government [as a whole] is not...
"In light of [the fact that] this government and its members continue to act like they have all the time in this world and in the next, that the fundamental guidelines set by its members are pathetic... that they have broken promises and [shattered] all hopes pinned on it... I call on the free public, on those who act peacefully, on those who rise up, on the revolutionaries, on the hungry and the sick, on the unemployed and the bankrupt, on those who are lost and are about to emigrate: Do not give this government your confidence, and do not allow it popular legitimacy."[3]
Lebanese Political Analyst: Through Fraud, The Government Remains In The Same Hands – And Reform Won't Happen
In a similar vein, Lebanese political commentator Tony 'Issa asserted that the government remains in the hands of the same political elements, and expressed skepticism with regard to its ability to institute reforms: "Naturally, the Europeans and others have reservations about what is happening [in connection with the makeup of this government]. This is because Diab promised to hand the government portfolios to independent technocrats, but, through fraud, they remain in the hands of the same political elements. The previous government's budget was adopted by [this new so-called] 'reformist government' with no changes. Likewise, we can expect no changes to the administrative staffs whose appointments are based on political connections. If this is the case, whence will reform come?
"The fundamental guidelines of [this] government are from the same mold as the previous guidelines in all things connected to the political-security aspect. With regard to the economic aspect, [this government] used numerous slogans about reform and rescue, to be carried out within undefined periods by means of no clear mechanism or organized plan. All this gives the impression that the reason [these issues] were included in the government's fundamental guidelines was to ward off the [public's] rage and to deceive public opinion with promises of reform."[4]
Lebanese Journalist: The West And The Arab Countries Will Not Send Aid To Lebanon – Because It Is Considered Part Of The Iran-Led Resistance Axis
In the London-based Al-Arab daily, Lebanese journalist Khairallah Khairallah wrote about Lebanon’s foreign relations, arguing that no one in the new government is capable of communicating with the Americans, the Europeans, or the Arabs. He wrote:
"The government of Hassan Diab and its founders do not understand that Lebanon's problem is first and foremost political – and that no one in this government is capable of talking to the Arabs, the Europeans, or the Americans. This is because no member has [even] minimally good relations with foreign elements that have a positive influence on Lebanon's situation…
“The Trump administration no longer wants to deal with Lebanon or to consider its domestic sentiment. This came about at the same time as the disappearance of the imaginary, or non-imaginary, line separating Hizbullah and [Lebanon's state] institutions, first and foremost the presidency and the government...
"With respect to the Arabs, Lebanon cannot request any Arab aid as long as the Gulf residents are fully convinced that it is a Hizbullah base. The current government has no way of persuading any Gulf country with financial means that Lebanon is not part of the Iranian axis. All anyone needs to be certain of this is to hear any speech by Hizbullah secretary-general Nasrallah –and especially when the aim of his speech is to attack a country like Saudi Arabia, which does only good for Lebanon."[5]
In another article, Khairallah wrote: "The new government formed in Lebanon headed by Hassan Diab absolutely cannot rescue anything, in light of the boiling [rage] in the street and in light of the fact that official Lebanese elements are biased towards Iran – which pressured them to form this government led by a figurehead with no credibility worth mentioning in his community..."[6]
Al-Nahar Columnist: The New Government Is Betraying The Lebanese Protests – And We Must Oppose It
In his column titled "Struggle Against the Puppet Government" in the Al-Nahar daily, Ali Hamade criticized the new government's violent suppression of the protests and urged the public to rebel against it. He wrote: "The government is a grave stab wound to the 'October 17 Revolution,' that sparked [a demand] for fundamental change in the country... The rebelling Lebanese people are called upon to first of all oppose the parliament that has surrendered to... the foreign occupier [i.e. Iran]; [then] to oppose the puppet government... and the insolence of [its February 7] meeting of the 'Supreme Defense Council' to finalize plans for suppressing the rebels, [with the aim of] terrifying independent national public opinion and letting it know that the government has extinguished the flames of the revolution that began on October 17...
"There is no alternative but to stand up to the policing mindset that is running the country, so that these [rulers] will understand that Lebanon is not Iraq and that the disgraceful government headed by Hassan Diab has no national legitimacy… Therefore, the free people and the rebels must not allow any rest for those who have stolen the people's dreams and seek to throw the Lebanese people into a huge prison.
"We thus call on free public opinion to return to the logic of the resistance… by taking to the streets, as part of actualizing the democratic and non-violent right to revolt against the evil reality presented by this government [that sets out] facts on the ground starting at the tip of the pyramid and radiating to its base. The Lebanese people's dire circumstances have reached a nadir. We can no longer remain silent, and we can no longer accept this reality…
"Therefore, we say to the Lebanese people – who are seeing their dreams and hopes evaporate before their eyes, who line up [at the banks] in shame and humiliation to salvage what remains of their money, who see their honor trampled by the few who seize their assets and their rights, who see their crust of bread being taken from their mouths and the mouths of their children, and whose future is bleak… – You have no choice but to keep protesting against this illegitimate political reality and the standard of living that humiliates you and your dreams…"[7]
Al-Mustaqbal Party Official: This Government Will Find It Hard To Act Against The Resistance Or Against The Firing Of Missiles From Lebanon
Al-Mustaqbal party senior official Mustafa 'Aloush expressed his doubts regarding the new government's ability to tackle the country's economic problems, fight corruption, promote reforms, and take control of the security situation in the country, and to deal with the issue of Hizbullah's illegal weapons. He wrote: "How will the government deal with this [economic] situation in the absence of foreign aid?... If the government [manages] to stabilize [the dollar exchange rate], what rate and price [will it set]? What will inflation be, and how much will the citizens' buying power drop… Where will they [get the money] to return to the public what they stole? Will the members of government hunt down those outside it?...
"Moving on to the less pressing problems of the day, obviously in comparison to the current situation – for example the electricity [problem]… For two decades this issue has been in the hands of the ruling group, and is today [as well], yet the electricity situation is only getting worse. We have heard no hope of salvation from the minister – who was advisor to the previous minister. Some say we must wait to see results. But the minister belongs to the previous staff that worked on this issue, and [there are still no results]. Regarding corruption, how can we expect a government to go after its own people in the government, who are for the most part agents of the rulers who appointed them to their positions, and as long as corruption is the most important means for the government and its members to maintain their power?...
"I [also] want to ask about how [the government] is handling the matter of the illegal weapons, which is the main obstacle facing the economy. The economy has dwindling investment because of the instability and the death of tourism due to the ongoing threats and shows of force against tourists in Lebanon by the weapons of the resistance… Will the resistance's shipments be inspected [at border crossings]? Will the government know what is in the trucks crossing the border with resistance passwords? What will the government do if the Lebanese Revolutionary Guard Corps [i.e. Hizbullah] is ordered to fire missiles? How will we persuade the Americans to lift the sanctions, in light of the ongoing struggle with Iran and when the resistance in our country is an integral part of the enterprise of the resistance [axis]?
"Every reform is likely to fail because of the loss of political and security control – [all of] which is connected to [Hizbullah's] illegal weapons. Ignoring this reality ostrich-style will not lead to tackling the centers of the disease [afflicting the country]."[8]
[1] For more on the protests, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8514, Journalists In Lebanese 'Al-Nahar' Daily In Pointed Criticism Of Country's Leaders: Your Corruption Has Turned Lebanon Into Hell And Is Driving Its Citizens To Suicide, January 22, 2020; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1492, Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part I: Hizbullah's Hostility To The Protests And The Reasons Behind It, December 3, 2019; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1493, Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part II: Hizbullah's Position On Protests Evokes Unusually Harsh Criticism Among Its Supporters, Prompts Wave Of Resignations From Pro-Hizbullah Daily 'Al-Akhbar', December 3, 2019;MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8332, Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current Protest-Wave: It Is Hizbullah That Caused The Economic Crisis In The Country, October 25, 2019.
[2] Diab's government is identified with the March 8 camp and its main elements are Hizbullah and its allies – Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement headed by Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of President Michel 'Aoun. The Lebanese government comprises the prime minister and 19 ministers, in this government, four ministers are from Hizbullah and Amal, six are from the Free Patriotic Movement, and two represent Druze faction leader Talal Arslan, a rival of longtime Druze leader Walid Jumblatt who is affiliated with the March 8 camp. Additionally, two ministers are from the Maronite Marada movement, headed by Suleiman Frangieh, Hizbullah ally, and one is from Al-Liqaa Al-Tashawuri, which represents the Sunni opposition to Sa'd Al-Hariri and are also supported by Hizbullah. Another minister is from the Armenian party Tashnag that joined the March 8 camp. Only three ministers in the government are politically unaffiliated, but they were appointed by Diab, who, as noted, is supported by Hizbullah.
[3] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 8, 2020.
[4] Al-Gumhouriyya (Lebanon), February 7, 2020.
[5] Al-Arab (London), February 9, 2020.
[6] Al-Arab (London), January 29, 2020.
[7] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 8, 2020.
[8] Al-Gumhouriyya (Lebanon), January 28, 2020.

Lebanon faces mayhem after defaulting on its debt
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 10/2020
For the first time in its history, Lebanon will default on its debt. Prime Minister Hassan Diab made the announcement on Saturday, saying: “How can we pay foreign creditors when the Lebanese can’t access their deposits?” He added that reserves had reached a “danger level.” Speculation was rife that it would come to this. The problem is that Lebanon is defaulting and it is alone — the country has no backing from the international community or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Due to the objections of Hezbollah, which sees the IMF as a tool for American domination, a possible IMF intervention was rebuffed. Meanwhile, the international community is standing firm: It will not provide any aid unless reforms are conducted. The US and its allies do not see a difference between Hezbollah and the current government.
To start with, no one knows how much the central bank has in reserves, as it lacks transparency. Officially, the country had, as at the end of last year, $31 billion in reserves while owing $67 billion to banks, meaning the reserves are negative. Diab has announced reforms, saying they will save $350 millionannually. However, this number will not really make a difference or save the economy from collapsing. Drastic reforms are needed. The Ponzi schemethat has kept the system afloat for the last three decades does not work anymore.
The government is also planning to negotiate with debtors. However, what kind of negotiations can take place if Lebanon does not have a guarantor. Without an IMF plan, it is very hard to convince debtors of reforms, especially with a country like Lebanon, which ranks 137th out of 180in terms of corruption. Now that the country is bankrupt, opening letters of credit to facilitate imports is becoming increasingly difficult, especially as Lebanon’s importsare more than five times its exports. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri called on friendly countries to open lines of credit to Lebanon for essential goods, but his call was not answered as the international community has lost trust and patience with the corrupt and failing political elite. Last month, a visit by theIMFto offer technical advice resulted in no developments. The government did not have a plan and expected the IMF to give it a magic spell that would solve the country’s problems without formally interfering.
Lebanon’s middle class is becoming poor. The US dollar reached a record high of 2,700Lebanese pounds last week and is expected to increase further, leading to a huge increase in the price of goods. Hyperinflation will drive people on to the streets. However, this time it will be violent, as people are hungry and angry. The government of Diab is on life support, and the important question remains: What’s next? No one seems to have a plan to take Lebanon out of its crisis. Unlike Greece, Lebanon does not have anybody ready to bail it out. To add to the calamity, the current leadership is stubborn and in denial.
Hyperinflation will drive people on to the streets. However, this time it will be violent, as people are hungry and angry.
One option would be for corrupt politicians to try to buy the people, as they do at the time of elections. They could use the wealth they have accumulated from pillaging the country for the past three decades to buy people’s loyalty. This way, they could regenerate their legitimacy for a while. However, the government is unable to offer basic services. In the regional context, the stability of Lebanon is paramount, but the current political configuration cannot offer stability. A skyrocketing dollar value and an ever-shrinking dollar supply in a highly dollarized economy is a huge problem. Additionally, inflation will wipe out people’s safety net in a country where the government does not offer any real social protection.
It will be important to see what Hezbollah does. Will it act like a militia, as it has since the beginning of the protests, and seek to intimidate and use force to strangle the calls for reform, or will the situation be too much and it will stay on the sidelines? There are many issues with the reforms. The reforms will mean controlling the porous borders with Syria, the airport and the ports. Even if Hezbollah is allowed to keep its arms in the south, it will be highly restricted and this is something the group won’t accept easily. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has previously warned that the protests could lead to civil war. However, a civil war is not in Hezbollah’s interest, just as it is not in the interest of any other political faction in the country. Sooner or later, Hezbollah will have to accept the IMF and its restricting conditions. Until then, Lebanon is faced with gloomy prospects, and there is no official plan to be put in place to lift the country from its current plight.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 10-11/2020
UN Security Council endorses US-Taliban peace deal
AFP, United Nations/Wednesday, 11 March 2020
The UN Security Council on Tuesday unanimously approved a United States’ resolution on the recent deal between the US and the Afghan Taliban, a rare endorsement of an agreement with a militant group. The US military has begun withdrawing troops as part of the pullout agreed in the February 29 pact with the Taliban. In the resolution, the Security Council “urges the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to advance the peace process, including by participating in intra-Afghan negotiations through a diverse and inclusive negotiating team composed of Afghan political and civil society leaders, including women.”The United States is keen to end its longest-ever conflict, and under the terms of a deal signed in Doha last month has said all foreign forces would quit Afghanistan within 14 months - provided the Taliban stick to their security commitments. Some diplomats expressed unease that the agreement included two secret appendices on the fight against terrorism that Council members approved without knowing what they say. The UN resolution came with Afghanistan in political crisis, following the double swearing-in on Monday of President Ashraf Ghani and his rival and former chief executive Abdullah Abdullah, both of whom claimed victory in last year’s presidential election.

Afghanistan’s President Ghani signs decree to release Taliban prisoners
Reuters, Kabul/Wednesday, 11 March 2020
Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani signed a decree to facilitate the release of some Taliban prisoners in Afghan jails, a spokesman for his office said on Wednesday. "President Ghani has signed the decree that would facilitate the release of the Taliban prisoners in accordance with an accepted framework for the start of negotiation between the Taliban and the Afghan government," Sediq Sediqqi, Ghani's spokesman said in a tweet. "Details of the decree will be shared tomorrow," he said. At least 1,000 Taliban prisoners are expected to released this week, five official sources said earlier, paving the way for opening direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban insurgents. But the Taliban want the Afghan government to release 5,000 fighters.

Coronavirus in Iran: Senior member of Khamenei’s office reportedly infected
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/uesday, 10 March 2020
A senior member of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office could be infected with coronavirus, according to local news website Saham News. Hossein Mohammadi, who is also a member of the Expediency Council, has been infected with coronavirus and is undergoing treatment in Tehran’s Masih Daneshvari hospital, Saham News initially reported. Visit our dedicated coronavirus site here for all the latest updates. Mohammadi is not in good condition, Saham News said, adding that one of his lungs has been fully infected. Saham News later reported citing a relative of Mohammadi that he does not have coronavirus but was hospitalised due to lung problems he had been suffering from for a while. Saham News reiterated that one of Mohammadi’s lungs has been fully infected, adding that the test results for his other lung will be available within the next two days. If confirmed to have coronavirus, Mohammadi would be the first member of Khamenei’s inner circle to have contracted the virus. As of Monday, 237 Iranians have died from the virus and there are 7,161 confirmed cases in the country. Several other government officials have been infected with coronavirus, including two Iranian vice presidents and two other members of the Expediency Council.

US urges Iran to release American prisoners amid coronavirus outbreak
AFP, Washingtone/11 March 2020
The United States on Tuesday called for Iran to release American prisoners held in the country as the coronavirus outbreak reportedly spreads through its prisons. "The United States will hold the Iranian regime directly responsible for any American deaths. Our response will be decisive," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. "Reports that COVID-19 has spread to Iranian prisons are deeply troubling and demand nothing less than the full and immediate release of all American citizens."

SOHR: Four Syrian Provinces Hit With Coronavirus Under Regime's Secrecy
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread in the Syrian governorates of Damascus, Tartus, Latakia and Homs, several medical sources in the regime-run areas have confirmed to a war monitor. Many coronavirus cases have been recorded, some of whom have died and some have been quarantined, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said. SOHR contacted doctors at several hospitals in those provinces who confirmed that they were given strict orders from the authorities of the Syrian regime to remain silent and refrain from talking about the outbreak of the coronavirus. Syria hosts a large number of Iranians coming in and out of it to visit religious sites, as well as other Iranian forces who have been deployed there and entered Syria with their families. Iran has recorded thousands of coronavirus cases, with dozens of people dead. The Syrian regime suspended flights yesterday to and from Iran and Iraq.

Iraqi Woman Accuses Moqtada Al-Sadr of Killing Her Only Son
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi
A woman from Iraq's Najaf accused Sadrist Movement Leader Muqtada al-Sadr of being involved in killing her only son in Sadrayn Square. Armed groups, believed to be affiliated with the Sadrist movement, attacked the Square early February, killing nine demonstrators, including Muhannad al-Qaisi, the lady’s son, and wounding dozens. The woman's statements came on Sunday at the Tahrir Square, central Baghdad, during demonstrations held in support of the protest movement on the occasion of “International Women's Day”. She expressed sorrow and grief, urging international and human rights organizations and the government to take action in this regard. She also affirmed that her family is independent and doesn’t support from any political party, stressing that her son stormed Iraq’s streets in demand for a country that maintains his dignity and that of others his age. Two weeks ago, the lady recorded a video addressing Sadr and grieving her son's death, asking what guilt did he commit to be killed. However, back then she didn’t directly accuse Sadr of her son's murder. The Movement, for its part, didn’t respond to the accusations. Sources in Najaf told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the Najafi lady wanted to reach the grave of Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr to complain about his son’s actions, but she was not allowed to.” Activists have launched a criticism campaign against Sadr several weeks ago after his followers were accused of being involved in the killing and wounding of many demonstrators in Najaf and Baghdad. Sadr is seen today by many as one of the most prominent figures defending the regime after he was represented as an opposing figure against regime corruption and one who seeks to make reforms. Many protesters believe that his presence in Iran at the beginning of the demonstrations has affected his stance. The protests Sadr called for late January against the US presence in Iraq has led to the division between Sadr and the rest of the anti-Iranian groups in Iraq.

Palestine Boosts Measures After Recording New Coronavirus Cases in Bethlehem, Tulkarem
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Palestine on Monday reported six new cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of the infected Palestinians to 25. Ibrahim Milhem, the spokesperson of the Palestinian government, told reporters that five of the new cases were confirmed in the West Bank city of Bethlehem and one was in the city of Tulkarem. The five cases in Bethlehem were infected after their meeting with a Greek tourist group in Bethlehem, while the case in Tulkarem is a Palestinian who works in Israel, Milhem said. Palestine has declared a state of emergency on Thursday after the breakout of the deadly virus was discovered in a hotel in Bethlehem. PA President Mahmoud Abbas issued a presidential decree declaring a state of emergency in all Palestinian-controlled territory for 30 days beginning at 8 a.m. Friday, authorizing officials to take “all necessary measures to confront the risks resulting from the coronavirus and to protect public health.” The Bethlehem authorities have shut down the entire district and prepared a specialized quarantine hospital to deal with the coronavirus disease. More than 2,000 Palestinians are currently placed in quarantine in the cities of Bethlehem and Jericho. Palestinian Health Minister Mai Al-Kaileh said that it was decided to activate the emergency plan in the governorates of Bethlehem and Jericho. Accordingly, all educational institutions and training centers in the Bethlehem Governorate are closed for 14 days. The Palestinian Authority on Sunday also closed all mosques in the Bethlehem area to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The PA Ministry of Wakf and Religious Affairs said the decision was in accordance with the state of emergency in the Palestinian territories, which was announced by PA President Mahmoud Abbas after 19 people tested positive for the virus.

Fatah Member Released from Detention after Criticizing Palestinian President
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Palestinian security forces released Hussam Khader, a prominent Fatah member and former MP, five days after he was detained for criticizing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Khader was held after he published a Facebook post critical of the Palestinian leader and Fatah chief. Abbas ordered the release and judicial proceedings to take him to court were dropped. Khader’s family said that he was arrested after he criticized Abbas in wake of a strike by doctors in the West Bank. Abbas had slammed the announcement of the strike as “inhumane” amid the outbreak of the new coronavirus. He said doctors should be working, not going on strike amid the outbreak, Israel’s economic siege and the challenges posed by the American peace proposal. He revealed that the doctors had pledged to him that they would halt their strike, but they then “shamefully” went ahead with it. The strike lifted soon after.
Khader’s family said he was critical of Abbas’ remarks and that he had demanded that the president apologize.

Activists, Lawyers Slam Extended Detention of Journalist, 3 Protesters in Algeria
Algiers - Boualem Goumrassa/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Human rights activists and lawyers in Algeria protested Monday the “interference of ‘political police’ in judicial affairs” after authorities extended the detention of four activists, including journalist Khaled Drareni, a correspondent for Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and French TV5. Media circles had expected journalist Samir Belarbi and activists Suleiman Hamtouche and Toufik Hassani to be released after they appeared in court. They were detained for two nights at a police station. However, the prosecutor decided to extend their detention without interrogating them. Abdelghani Badi, one of the most prominent lawyers defending the detainees, told reporters that the security services that conducted the initial investigations asked the prosecution for an extension to continue their inquiry. He wondered: “Why would they need more time given that they are looking into simple and clear facts?”
Badi confirmed the activists were detained during a protest in Algiers on Saturday. Drareni was photographing the demonstration, while Belarbi, Hamtouche and Hassani were among the participants. They were arrested along with 30 others, who were later released.
Badi feared that security services were looking to fabricate charges against the four activists. He cited the Minister of Justice who had previously boasted that no journalists were being detained because of their profession. He refuted the allegation, saying his client was still in custody. Badi criticized the “political police”, describing it as “a cancer that is hindering the establishment of the new Algeria promised by President [Abdelmadjid] Tebboune.” Amnesty International’s office in Algeria strongly condemned the arrest of Drareni and the activists. It is unacceptable to arrest a journalist while practicing his profession, just as it is unacceptable to arrest peaceful demonstrators, it said. The media is the pillar of the new republic if Tebboune wants to build the state on sound foundations, according to Amnesty official. In a statement, Reporters Without Borders condemned Drareni’s arrest, affirming its full support to him and calling for his immediate release. He was summoned for interrogation two months ago by the security agency, where he was questioned about the photos and news he published regarding the popular demonstrations. He wrote on his Twitter that authorities asked him to stop posting, but he defied their warnings. Belarbi was acquitted a month ago, after five months in prison over charges of “weakening the morale of the army.”

Yemenis Accuse UNMHA Chair of Turning Blind Eye to Houthi Violations
Aden – Ali Rabea/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
A recent statement made by the Chair of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC) and Head of the United Nations Mission in support of the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) Lieutenant General Abhijit Guha of India sparked nationwide rage and condemnation in Yemen. Coalition airstrikes hinder the peace process and jeopardize the implementation of the Hodeida deal, Guha said in a statement. Apart from drawing shock from the internationally recognized government, the statement also led to leveling accusations against Guha for turning a blind eye to Houthi aggressions and violations in Hodeidah and all across Yemen. The airstrikes on Salif, in the Yemeni western governorate of Hodeida, hinder the peace process and jeopardize the Hodeida pact application, UNMHA said Monday. UNMHA chair, Guha, expressed deep resentment at the Saturday airstrike in the Red Sea port of Salif. Despite the decrease in violence during the last months, the situation in Hodeida is still volatile, the UN official said. On Sunday, the Saudi-led Arab Coalition said its aircraft had carried out "typical operation against Houthi military targets in Salif district," to the north of Hodeida city. "The targeted sites were used for preparing for and carrying out hostile acts and terrorist operations threatening international navigation and trade routes in Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the south Red Sea," the Coalition said in a statement. Information Minister Muammar Al-Eryani expressed his surprise at the statement of Guha regarding the qualitative operation carried out by the Coalition against military targets of the Houthi militia in Salif. The attack destroyed sites used to assemble and launch bomb-rigged boats that constituted a threat to maritime navigation. As for Guha’s statement on violence decreasing in Hodeidah, Eryani said it was misleading to the international community as dozens of Houthi violations continue to take place daily. Eryani reaffirmed that the internationally-recognized government will not allow for Houthis to exploit the Hodeidah ceasefire agreement and transform the city’s ports into spots used to manufacture threats to international maritime navigation.

LNA Says Sarraj Govt, Militias Preparing to Launch Major Offensive
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
The Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) is preparing to attack positions of the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, on various fighting fronts, said LNA Spokesman Major General Ahmed al-Mismari. In a statement on Sunday evening, Mesmari said “Fayez al-Sarraj’s terrorist and criminal militias, supported by mercenaries sent by Turkey, have been mobilizing to launch a massive attack on all LNA forces’ positions.”This has been affirmed by LNA's reconnaissance units after collecting and analyzing data.
Mesmari didn’t reveal any further details, nor did he clarify the nature of the countermeasures LNA forces plan to take. The attack would end the fragile truce that has been concluded under the auspices of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya between the two parties in January. Meanwhile, Media center of LNA's Dignity Operations Room has announced the death of commander of Sarraj’s Salaheddine forces, noting that a number of militia elements have fled the area.
In other news, Volcano of Rage Operation, launched by militias loyal to the GNA, announced the death of two people and the injury of five others in an attack it said was launched by LNA forces. It republished photos distributed by the Field Medicine Center, showing part of what it described as the damage left by the rockets targeting civilian homes in the Arada region. It also quoted a GNA spokesman as saying that its forces have dealt carefully with the attacks launched by LNA forces against populated areas south of Tripoli.
An official from the GNA’s Health Ministry told Xinhua that “two civilians, a man and a woman, were killed by indiscriminate shelling against the Municipality of Souk El-Jumaa” in Tripoli. According to the official, five civilians were injured due to the shelling, which also targeted homes of civilians and a school in the area.

Tunisian Interior Ministry Proposes Severe Penalties for Glorifying Terrorism
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Tunisian Interior Minister Hichem Mechichi stressed that Tunisian authorities will not tolerate anyone who praises or glorifies terrorism on social media. In a presser, he revealed that his ministry will present to parliament a new draft law, which includes strict penalties for those arrested in connection with praising terrorism and glorifying perpetrators of terrorist attacks targeting security forces and the army. The anti-terrorism and money-laundering law, which was ratified in 2015, included severe penalties for perpetrators of terrorist acts, amounting to the death penalty against those who caused a single death. This law holds prison terms that could reach three years against those who glorify terrorism, but this punishment did not deter supporters of terrorist organizations from continuing to praise their attacks on social media. Last week, two assailants on a motorcycle attacked a security forces checkpoint outside the US Embassy in Tunis, blowing themselves up, killing one police officer and wounding four others and a civilian. Police launched raids on the homes of the suspected bombers shortly after the attack. US Ambassador Donald Blome said “we are outraged by the attack,” and thanked Tunisian security forces for keeping the embassy secure and their rapid response. “We reaffirm our commitment to our longstanding friendship with Tunisia and our alliance with them against the scourge of terrorism,” he said in a statement. The attackers were previously arrested and imprisoned for glorifying terrorism. The lawyer of one of the bombers pointed out that his defendant was sentenced to three years in prison over glorifying terrorism. The court reduced the sentence against him to one year, after an appeal.

Attempted Assassination Targeting Hamdok Receives Arab, Int'l Condemnation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 10 March, 2020
Saudi Arabia has denounced the attempted assassination that targeted Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed Riyadh’s rejection of this terrorist act and any endeavor to curb Sudan’s stability and security. For its part, the UAE also denounced the attack in a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MoFAIC) that decried what it described as a "criminal act." It also expressed its rejection of all forms of violence and terrorism, adding that UAE stands beside Sudan and supports its transitional phase in a way that guarantees its stability. Further, Egypt denounced Hamdok’s targeting and called for uniting international and regional efforts to combat terrorism. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) also denounced the attack. OIC Secretary-General Dr. Yousef al-Othaimeen rejected this terrorist act that jeopardizes the stability and security of Sudan. Nayef al-Hajraf, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, denounced the assassination attempt and affirmed that the GCC shows solidarity with Sudan in committing terrorism and reinforcing stability and security on its territories. Saudi Arabia's Shoura Council member Dr. Mishaal bin Fahm al-Salami also decried the attempted assassination and stressed that this terrorist act will not impact the efforts of the Sudanese government in proceeding with the peaceful political process. The US Embassy in Sudan posted on Facebook: “The US Embassy is shocked and saddened at the attack on Abdalla Hamdok convoy. Our sincere condolences to the victims. We continue to support Sudan's civilian-led transitional government and stand in solidarity with the Sudanese people.” The European Union condemned in the strongest terms the assassination attempt against Hamdok. This shocking incident should not impair the ongoing efforts to build a stable, peaceful, just and free Sudan, it added.

168 Coronavirus Deaths in Italy in One Day, Toll outside China Passes 1,000
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Italy recorded 168 deaths Tuesday from the novel coronavirus, its highest single-day toll to date, pushing the number of fatalities outside China to more than 1,000. Overall in Italy, 631 people have died from the COVID-19 disease caused by the virus and 10,149 have been infected in just over two weeks. Tuesday's toll raised the number of deaths outside China to 1,115, according an AFP tally.

New York Deploys National Guard to Fight Coronavirus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
New York is deploying National Guard troops for the first time in the coronavirus crisis to help contain the spread of the disease from an infection-hit suburb of New York City, the state's governor said Tuesday. Andrew Cuomo said authorities would set up a one-mile radius "containment zone" around the epicenter of an outbreak in New Rochelle in suburban Westchester county. Cuomo explained that all facilities in the zone that hold large gatherings, such as schools and temples, would be closed for two weeks beginning Thursday. "We're also going to use the National Guard in the containment area to deliver food to homes, to help with the cleaning of public spaces," Cuomo said. There have been 173 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New York state, including 108 in Westchester County, home to New Rochelle where the majority of infections have been detected. Cuomo told reporters that businesses in the containment zone will remain open and that people will be free to come and go as they wish, insisting there is no quarantine. "You're not containing people, it's facilities," he said. "It is a dramatic action but it is the largest cluster in the country. This is literally a matter of life and death," Cuomo added. The area is centered on a synagogue in New Rochelle, a city of 80,000 inhabitants just north of New York City, which was attended by the state's first case -- a lawyer working in Manhattan. The United States has more than 800 confirmed cases of the deadly virus, according to a running tally by Johns Hopkins University.Twenty-eight people have died, 23 of those in Washington state. No one has died in New York.

Tunisia Arrests 5 over Attack near U.S. Embassy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
Five people have been arrested in Tunisia over a double suicide attack that killed a police officer near the US embassy in Tunis last week, the prosecution said Tuesday. Two suicide bombers struck outside the embassy on Friday, wounding six other people and again shaking a city repeatedly hit by jihadist violence. The five detainees were arrested on Saturday and are being held at a police station in the capital's El Gorjani district specializing in anti-terrorism investigations, spokesman Sofiene Sliti told AFP. Tunisian media have reported that the two suicide bombers were men from Tunis who had served their sentences after being found guilty on terror charges in 2014. The attack on Friday at midday rocked the Berges du Lac district hosting the highly fortified embassy, causing panic among pedestrians and motorists. A video shared later on social media shows two men in sports clothes and with caps on their heads riding a scooter up to a police van then pausing for a few seconds before an explosion. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack and authorities have not announced any other advances in their investigations. Tunisia has been hit by multiple jihadist attacks since the 2011 uprising that toppled longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. A string of deadly attacks in 2015 killed dozens of foreign tourists and security personnel. An attack that year that killed 12 presidential guards prompted authorities to announce a state of emergency that has remained in place ever since.

Germany to Open Syrian 'Crimes against Humanity' Trial in April
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 10/2020
The unprecedented trial of two alleged former Syrian intelligence officers accused of participating in crimes against humanity will begin in April, a German court said Tuesday. Legal campaigners at the Berlin-based European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) say it will be the first-ever legal proceedings in the world over state-sponsored torture in Syria. The trial begins on April 23 in the western German city of Koblenz, and is expected to run at least until August. Anwar Raslan, 57, is charged with crimes against humanity, rape and 58 counts of murder, while 43-year-old Eyad Al-Gharib is accused of having been an accomplice. Raslan allegedly led the investigations division of "Branch 251" of the Syrian secret services, which operated a prison in the Damascus area. Prosecutors say he participated in the torture and abuse of prisoners between April 2011 and September 2012. In a statement Tuesday, the court cited the charge sheet, which alleged that around 4,000 prisoners were "beaten, kicked and subjected to electric shocks" under Raslan's leadership at the Branch 251 prison. There was also allegedly "at least one case of rape and aggravated sexual assault."Prosecutors believe Raslan "Raslan knew about the extent of the torture, which means he also knew that prisoners were dying as a result of extreme violence." Al-Gharib is accused of having rounded up anti-government demonstrators and driven them to prisons where they were "brutally and systematically tortured." Both men later fled to Germany, but were arrested in February 2019 as part of a Franco-German investigation. Although Syrian nationals, they are to be tried on the principle of universal jurisdiction, which allows a foreign country to prosecute crimes against humanity. The German trial follows a series of complaints filed in several European countries by torture victims and their associates, with the support of lawyers at the ECCHR. A total of 16 Syrians supported by the ECCHR are expected to be involved in the trial, nine as joint plaintiffs and seven as witnesses. "In using the principle of universal jurisdiction, the German judiciary is sending an important signal to survivors and those affected by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s system of torture and oppression," said the ECCHR in a statement. "The trial in Koblenz is an important step, if only a beginning on the long road to justice," said the ECCHR's Patrick Kroker. But, it added, "more prosecutions must follow."

Sudan moves against Omar al-Bashir loyalists after assassination attempt.
Reuters, Khartoum/Wednesday, 11 March 2020
Sudan’s ruling council said on Tuesday it would step up its drive to remove loyalists of former president Omar al-Bashir, a day after the prime minister of the transitional government escaped an assassination attempt unscathed. A branch of Sudan’s security services that was closely linked to al-Bashir will be brought under control of the civilian government and a committee tasked with dismantling the old regime will be given additional powers, sovereign council spokesman Mohamed al-Faki said in a statement. Authorities have launched an investigation into Monday’s assassination attempt, when a blast targeted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s convoy as he drove to work. They have not said who was behind it, but by reasserting that al-Bashir loyalists will be firmly dealt with, they have suggested possible links with old regime supporters trying to disrupt a democratic transition. Hamdok heads a government of technocrats serving under a 39-month power-sharing deal between civilian groups and the military that was struck after al-Bashir was overthrown last April. As part of efforts to disempower al-Bashir’s supporters, the “dismantling” committee has already moved to disband the former ruling party and dismiss senior officials at banks and embassies. Some officers at the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) have also been dismissed, and the name of the agency has been changed to the General Intelligence Service (GIS). Al-Faki said on Tuesday that the part of the GIS that operates inside Sudan would be brought under the interior ministry. In mid-January, armed security agents linked to Bashir fought soldiers in Khartoum for several hours, after a dispute linked to severance packages.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 10-11/2020
How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers
Justin Fox/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 10/2020
The coronavirus outbreak has been turning a lot of us into amateur epidemiologists. Just listen to Mick Mulvaney, the former real estate developer and member of Congress from South Carolina who is now acting White House chief of staff. “The flu kills people,” he said last week. “This is not Ebola. It’s not SARS, it’s not MERS. It’s not a death sentence, it’s not the same as the Ebola crisis.”
All those statements are true. The flu does kill people: an estimated 61,099 in the US in the worst recent flu season, that of 2017-2018. People who get Covid-19, the World Health Organization’s shorthand for Coronavirus Disease 2019, 1 are much less likely to die than those infected with Ebola, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome of 2003 and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome first reported in 2012. And no, this is not the same as the Ebola crisis.
It’s not the same as the 2014 Ebola crisis in part because it appears to be a much bigger deal for the US and other countries outside of West Africa. As Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates, also technically an amateur epidemiologist but by this point quite a well-informed one, put it Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine: “Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”
How do we reconcile these differing views of Covid-19? Well, I too am an amateur as an epidemiologist, but I find that charts and (very simple) equations help me think through things. On the theory that others might find this helpful, too, let’s start with the approximate case-fatality rates for the diseases listed by Mulvaney and a few others you may have heard of.
These fatality rates can change a lot depending on time and place and access to treatment. The Covid-19 rate is obviously a moving target, so I’ve included both the 3.4% worldwide mortality rate reported this week by the World Health Organization and the 1% estimate from a study released Feb. 10 by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London that factored in probable unreported cases. The authors of that study also said that, given the information available at the time, they were 95% confident the correct fatality rate was somewhere between 0.5% and 4%. Gates used the 1% estimate in his article, and when I ran it by Caroline Buckee, an actual professional epidemiologist who is a professor at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, she termed it “reasonable.”
In a context that includes Ebola and MERS, the Covid-19 death rates are much closer to those of the flu, and it’s understandable why people find the comparison reassuring. Compare Covid-19 with just the flu, though, and it becomes clear how different they are.
The 61,099 flu-related deaths in the US during the severe flu season of 2017-2018 amounted to 0.14% of the estimated 44.8 million cases of influenza-like illness. There were also an estimated flu-related 808,129 hospitalizations, for a rate of 1.8%. Assume a Covid-19 outbreak of similar size in the US, multiply the death and hospitalization estimates by five or 10, and you get some really scary numbers: 300,000 to 600,000 deaths, and 4 million to 8 million hospitalizations in a country that has 924,107 staffed hospital beds. Multiply by 40 and, well, forget about it. Also, death rates would go higher if the hospital system is overwhelmed, as happened in the Chinese province of Hubei where Covid-19’s spread began and seems to be happening in Iran now. That’s one reason that slowing the spread is important even if it turns out the disease can’t be stopped.
Could Covid-19 really spread as widely as the flu? If allowed to, sure. The standard metric for infectiousness is what’s called the reproduction number, or R0. It is usually pronounced “R naught,” and the zero after the R should be rendered in subscript, but it’s a simple enough concept. An R0 of one means each person with the disease can be expected to infect one more person. If the number dips below one, the disease will peter out. If it gets much above one, the disease can spread rapidly.
Here are R0s for the same list of diseases as above. These are rough approximations, in most cases the midpoints of quite-large ranges. But they do give a sense of relative infectiousness.
This helps explain why public health authorities want everybody to get vaccinated against the measles. It’s not all that deadly a disease, but once it gets going in an unvaccinated population, everybody gets it.
The numbers also seem to indicate that Covid-19 is a lot more contagious than the seasonal flu. Average R0 isn’t the whole story, though. Why all the worry about MERS, for example, which with an R0 below one shouldn’t spread at all? Well, it’s extremely deadly, its R0 can rise above one in certain environments, among them hospitals, and ... you can catch it from your camel.
Then there’s SARS, which is both deadlier than Covid-19 and has a similar R0. Why was it wiped out in about a year, while some experts warn that Covid-19 may be around forever? Because SARS usually didn’t become contagious until several days after symptoms appeared. This meant that, as four British infectious disease experts wrote in 2004, “actions taken during this period to isolate or quarantine ill patients can effectively interrupt transmission.” They proposed adding another variable to disease-transmission models: the proportion of transmission occurring prior to symptoms. For SARS, this was less than 11%, probably much less. For influenza, it is between 30% and 50%, making it far harder to control the disease’s spread.
With Covid-19, “it seems that it can transmit quite a bit before symptoms occur,” Buckee says. How much is still up in the air. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been arguing this week that pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be low enough that Covid-19 can be controlled in ways that the flu cannot. “If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now,” he said Monday, “and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.”
Now, as China begins to go back to work, the big question is whether a less-draconian approach can keep the disease in check or whether it will just start spreading again.
That’s the big question in the US, Europe and pretty much everywhere else on earth too. It can’t be answered entirely by professional epidemiologists, either. Weighing whether the costs of a particular intervention are worth the benefits is at heart a political decision. So it’s actually good that politicians are moonlighting as amateur epidemiologists. Some of them may just need to study a little harder.

Countries Can Still Get Rich From Manufacturing
Noah Feldman/Bloomberg/March 10/2020
Since the Industrial Revolution began, every country that hasn’t been lucky enough to have huge oil deposits has gotten rich the same way: by getting good at manufacturing. Countries like the U.K., Germany, the U.S, Japan, and South Korea all became world-class manufacturers long before their economies began to shift toward services. More recently, a new crop of almost-developed countries including Malaysia, Poland, Turkey, China, Romania, Thailand and Mexico have also strengthened their manufacturing capacity.
Economists like Ha-Joon Chang and Dani Rodrik and writers like Joe Studwell have argued that intentional promotion of manufacturing exports is crucial for this kind of development. In a 2008 paper, Rodrik summarized much of the empirical and theoretical case in favor of industrial policy. “Development,” he writes, “is fundamentally about structural change” toward producing high-value exportable products -- most of which tend to be manufactured goods. Competing in export markets also forces a country’s producers to increase productivity and enables them to adopt advanced foreign technologies.
A number of poor countries have been trying to put this idea into practice. Two prominent examples are Vietnam and Bangladesh, which have experienced exponential growth in recent years.
Their industrial profiles look just right for countries on the first rung of the manufacturing ladder. Vietnam’s top exports are electronics and clothing, while Bangladesh’s are clothing and textiles.
But worryingly, Rodrik has been arguing for several years that the window for successful manufacturing-driven development has closed. In a 2016 presentation entitled “Is the Age of Growth Miracles Over?”, he argued that countries like China and Malaysia would be the last to use manufacturing to make the leap from poverty to wealth.
Rodrik’s argument was mainly an empirical one. While most countries eventually shift from manufacturing to services after they get rich, Rodrik observed that in recent decades, this shift has been happening earlier and earlier -- so that many countries now actually start shifting away from manufacturing before they fully industrialize.
Other research seems to have documented a similar phenomenon. For example, a 2015 paper by economists Douglas Gollin, Remi Jedwab and Dietrich Vollrath found that in many developing countries, urbanization now means poor people moving off of farms to work in local services rather than in factories.
For countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, this is bad news. If Rodrik is right, their current burst of manufacturing prowess may evaporate, and they’ll find themselves following in the footsteps of countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, and Brazil, where manufacturing has been declining as a share of GDP.
What’s the reason for this deindustrialization? One obvious explanation is automation. If robots are replacing the lower end of the supply chain, then the poor, unskilled workers who traditionally power low-end manufacturing industries, like garment, toys, and electronics assembly, no longer have a comparative advantage. Poor countries would presumably then specialize in natural resource exports and low-value service exports like call centers, leaving advanced countries with machine tools and robots to build all the physical stuff.
But there are good reasons to doubt that this is happening. The link between automation and employment is tenuous; some studies find that industrial robots replace human workers, but others find that they increase employment, including among the low-skilled.
More importantly, the timing is wrong for technology to be the story. Much of the premature deindustrialization Rodrik documented -- including in Nigeria and Brazil -- happened in the 1980s and 1990s. At the exact same time, China was ramping up its manufacturing capacity in labor-intensive industries and beginning its own growth miracle. So it seems likely that something else was going on in the countries where industrialization reversed.
Many of these countries may have simply had a dysfunctional, premature industrialization. In Africa, for example, a number of countries used a policy of import substitution, closing themselves off to trade and trying to manufacture their own goods, often using inefficient state-owned factories. Brazil used a similar approach. This is very different than the kind of export-focused, productivity-boosting industrial policy that Rodrik, Chang or Studwell would recommend. And then when these industrialization drives left countries poor, they opened their borders to imports, which decimated inefficient local industry.
In addition to policy mistakes, China’s own industrialization may have played a role. That huge country’s incredible manufacturing prowess may have caused multinational companies to turn away from slower-footed competitors like Indonesia, stifling their own nascent industries. Notably, Rodrik found that on average, East Asian countries hadn’t experienced premature deindustrialization like their counterparts in other regions of the world.
An economic theory created by Paul Krugman, Masahisa Fujita, and Anthony Venables may hold the key to why this happened. They predicted that as the world economy develops, regions industrialize in spurts, one after another. If this is right, then other countries would have had no choice but to wait for China to finish its own growth miracle before starting their own.
That time may now have come. Thanks to rapidly rising Chinese costs, the US-China trade war, and multinational companies’ desire to diversify in the face of threats like coronavirus, it might be time for countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh to take over much of labor-intensive manufacturing. Even countries that deindustrialized, like Indonesia, might now get a second chance. Poor countries shouldn’t give up on the dream of manufacturing-based development just yet.

مجيد رافزدا: اكاذيب ملالي إيران المتعلقة بفايروس الكورونا
Iran: The Mullahs' Coronavirus Lies
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/March 10/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/84030/%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b2%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%b0%d9%8a%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa%d8%b9%d9%84/
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently called the coronavirus a "blessing."
The situation has become so perilous that some members of the Iranian parliament have finally come forward and criticized the theocratic establishment for failing to address the issue adequately.
The Iranian leaders' cover-up and lies are some the underlying reasons behind the spread of coronavirus to other nations. By calling the coronavirus a "blessing", Iran's Supreme Leader seems to suggest that his objective is to spread the virus to other countries, particularly Israel and the West.
After China, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as the second focal point of coronavirus, and thanks to the ruling mullahs' lies and cover-ups, Tehran is spreading it to the rest of the planet.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently called the coronavirus a "blessing." After China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, its ally, has emerged as the second focal point of coronavirus, and thanks to the ruling mullahs' lies and cover-ups, Tehran is spreading it to the rest of the planet.
The Iranian authorities at first claimed that the country was not experiencing a crisis regarding the coronavirus: that no one in Iran had contracted the disease. Soon, however, leaked information disclosed that top Iranian officials were aware of the coronavirus in Iran but had decided to conceal the truth.
When a few Iranian authorities were pressured to provide information, they stated that they are not allowed to report the actual number of people who have been infected or died. The head of the Medical Sciences University in Qom, Mohammad Reza Ghadir, for instance, said on Iran's state television that the Ministry of Health had issued a ban on disclosing statistics on the coronavirus outbreak in the country.
The question is: Are the ruling mullahs attempting purposefully to spread the coronavirus to other countries as a form of global jihad? Otherwise, why would Iran's top Ayatollah call coronavirus a "blessing"?
Now, not only is the Iranian regime refusing to give the public or the international community a full and accurate picture of the coronavirus outbreak; it is also not taking any necessary steps and precautions to prevent the crisis from spreading.
While the city of Qom has become the epicenter through which the coronavirus is being transmitted to other part of the world, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pointed out that the government has no plans to quarantine the city or, for that matter, any other town.
In addition, although Iran's leaders were aware of the high number of its people infected with the coronavirus, they did not halt their flights to other countries.
The website Eghtesad Online wrote on February 19 that Iranian officials had falsely claimed to have suspended flights.
It is important to remind the public that Iran's commercial airlines, specifically Iran Air and Mahan Air, have been utilized for the illicit transport of weapons and military staff, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite Quds Force and the Basij militia. These airlines usually fly to countries such as Syria unannounced. Several countries, including Germany and France, have banned flights by Mahan Air.
The Islamic Republic is also failing to provide services across Iran to test people for the virus. Mohammad Reza Ghadir confirmed that "most of the tests have to be done in Tehran, and Tehran announces it." The regime is also failing to conduct full examinations on patients. After some people died in Kamkar Hospital in Qom, a hospital employee said:
"Precise statistics cannot be said because we had suspected fatalities from about 10 days ago and, until two days ago, all were buried without careful examination and there is a high probability that they were infected with the coronavirus."
The situation has become so perilous that some members of the Iranian parliament have finally come forward and criticized the theocratic establishment for failing to address the issue adequately.
Ahmad Amirabadi, a member of Iran's parliament, revealed important information when he spoke with the state-run Iranian Labour News Agency. It quoted him as saying:
"Qom is not doing well in terms of the spread of the coronavirus, and I think the government's performance in controlling the virus has failed.
"Nurses currently lack proper quarantine clothing and are caring for patients with fear and anxiety. There are many problems for nurses and there are few facilities, and Qom also lacks laboratory kits.
"It is true that we must keep calm, but we should not observe the scale of the crisis as if nothing had happened... Unfortunately, the coronavirus outbreak has been in Qom for three weeks and this has been announced late."
The Iranian leaders' cover-up and lies are some of the underlying reasons behind the spread of coronavirus to other nations. By calling the coronavirus a "blessing", Iran's Supreme Leader seems to suggest that his objective is to spread the virus to other countries, particularly Israel and the West.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Can Turkey Defeat Russia's Army in Syria?
Michael Peck/The National Interest/March 10/2020
Turkey and Russia are hardly equal in size or military capability.
But should Turkish and Russian forces actually engage in combat in Syria, Turkey would have the edge, according to one American analyst.
"The correlation of forces is decidedly against Russia in Syria," says Michael Kofman, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank, and an expert on the Russian military.
How could this be? Russia is a former superpower that still retains a large military and the world's biggest arsenal of nuclear warheads. Turkey, though one of the strongest members of NATO, is a middleweight power that lacks nuclear weapons.
Russia's overall military edge doesn't translate into superior strength on the ground in Syria.
But as in real estate, location is everything. Russia's overall military superiority doesn't translate into superior strength on the ground in northeastern Syria, where Moscow's Syrian ally has launched an offensive to recapture Idlib province – on the Syria-Turkish border – from Turkish troops and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels.
Russia has only one major airbase in Syria – Khmeimim airbase near the port of Latakia in northwestern Syria – and a naval base at Tartus. This creates a vulnerability, as does the dependence of Russian forces – estimated to include several thousand troops and dozens of warplanes – on ships to bring their supplies Those vessels must transit from the Black Sea – through the Bosporus straits which are controlled by Turkey – before they can reach Syrian ports in the eastern Mediterranean. And unlike the U.S., Russia does not have a substantial airlift capacity to sustain an overseas expeditionary force.
Russia has only one major airbase in Syria.
These infrastructure and logistical constraints mean Russia can't beef up its present forces in Syria much beyond their present level, Kofman believes. "In a scenario where Russia has one airbase, a presence that is not scalable, a presence that requires access to the Bosporus for logistical support, the Russian forces are actually in a very vulnerable position," he says.
A Russian retaliatory strike on Turkey itself would also be risky. While NATO is unlikely to support Turkey's campaign in Syria – which is outside the alliance's zone – it would be obligated to aid a member whose national territory has been attacked.
To be clear, neither Turkey nor Russia is looking for a military confrontation with each other. Indeed, in early March 2020, Turkish president Recip Erdogan flew to Moscow to sign an agreement with Russian president Vladimir Putin that calls for a cease-fire in Idlib, and a security corridor along the M4 highway that will feature joint Russian-Turkish patrols.
A Russian guided missile cruiser passes through the Bosporus strait.
The situation resembles the Cold War, where the U.S. and Soviet Union avoided direct clashes and instead battled through proxy forces. In February 2020, after Syrian airstrikes killed 33 Turkish soldiers, Turkey retaliated with its own strikes – including attacks by armed drones – on Syrian troops and shot down three Syrian warplanes. While a Turkish F-16 did shoot down a Russian Su-24 strike aircraft in 2015, both countries have otherwise managed to avoid coming to blows.
Yet Turkey has an estimated 7,000 troops in northern Syria, backed by drones and aircraft. Russian aircraft are supporting Syrian government troops attempting to wrest back Idlib – the last rebel-controlled territory in Syria. There are also Russian advisers and military police, and Russian mercenaries, in the area. It's easy to envision multiple scenarios where Turkish and Russian forces engage in direct combat. For example, a Turkish attack on Syrian troops might injure Russian advisers, who call for air support from Russian planes. Or, Turkish aircraft accidentally shoot down Russian aircraft mistaken for Syrian planes, and then Russia might retaliate by downing Turkish jets.
While neither Moscow nor Ankara wants a direct fight, neither can afford to back down from a fight.
While neither Moscow nor Ankara wants a direct fight, neither can afford to back down from a fight, Kofman says. "While both sides are working to avoid a conflict, neither side can accept loss of life without taking some kind of measures."
Turkey and Russia have a troubled history, including a series of wars from the Seventeenth to the Twentieth Century ("those wars have not gone well for Turkey," Kofman quips). But ironically, the Syrian flashpoint comes as Moscow and Ankara have drawn closer over recent years. Once the southern anchor of NATO against Soviet expansion, Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles angered the U.S. to the point that the Trump administration kicked Turkey out of the F-35 stealth fighter program.
The question is whether Turkey and Russia have irreconcilable goals, or merely differing goals that can be mutually satisfied. Turkish troops occupy northeastern Syria, ostensibly to create a buffer zone between Syrian Kurds who have formed a breakaway region from the Syrian government, and Turkish Kurds who have long battled the Turkish government in a bid for independence. Turkey would also like to see the demise of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime, not least because the Syrian offensive in Idlib has driven nearly a million refugees toward the Turkish border.
For its part, Russia is determined to preserve the Syrian regime. Moscow and Damascus have been allies since the 1960s, and Moscow's only naval base outside Russia is the Syrian port of Tartus. Determined to stop Syrian rebels who came close to overthrowing the government, Moscow committed Russian planes that – along with troops from Iran and Iran's Lebanese proxy Hezbollah – were instrumental in enabling the battered Syrian army to recapture most of the country.
"It is understood that the Russian military will intervene on behalf of the Syrian regime if the regime's stability and survival is in question," Kofman says. "But it is not going to intervene on behalf of Syrian forces in Idlib. Russia doesn't need Idlib."
However, experts believe that any cease-fire agreement in Idlib will be temporary at best. "Ultimately, the Russians will back the Syrian government's desire to reclaim those territories," predicts Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "But in the meanwhile, Putin is happy to kick that can down the road while Syria swallows and digests territory which the opposition had controlled."
*Michael Peck is a contributing writer for The National Interest and a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He can be found on Twitter, Facebook. or on his personal web site.

More red zones like Italy’s are coming
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/March 10/2020
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s decision to quarantine the entire country will perhaps be the beginning of a series of instances where health care systems are overwhelmed by coronavirus infection rates. The combustible situation in Italy, erupting out of Milan and spreading outwards, is radioactive enough to shut the country down. The increased restrictions will mean all public gatherings are banned across the country and movement will be limited other than for work or emergencies.
Conte addressed the young people in Italy who have continued to gather at night to socialize during the public health emergency. “This nightlife... we can’t allow this anymore,” he said. “Our habits must change, must change now. We must all give up something for the good of Italy.” This was a powerful statement requiring a change in behavior.
The quarantine measures imposed in the north of Italy now apply to the whole country. That means Italian authorities will allow travel to, from and within the country only if it is demonstrably necessary for work or health reasons. The nationwide quarantine also means employees are urged to take vacation and stay home, while bars and restaurants must close at 6pm and virtually all public gatherings are banned. In shops, churches and all gathering places, people must keep 1 meter’s distance apart. Now imagine that in your country — because such red zones are coming soon to all areas with similar outbreaks. Testimony from an Italian doctor stated that “an epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists; only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.”
The above testifies just how quickly COVID-19 can “bloom” among a population and its logistical lines of daily life. Application of the understanding of what constitutes contact in this particular pathogen environment is a human factors model that means a significantly altered way of life in order to contain the spread. Here, an approach using teleworking, or teleschooling, would help to bring about social distancing and could help buy time so that the pathogen does not spread so rapidly. This is not meant to instill any form of anxiety, but illustrates how scientists and practitioners must ask hard questions. These methods are already being instituted in the Gulf states as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, and lessons learned from the ongoing disinfection treatment will be valuable.
As I notedin this column last month, the following needs to be repeated yet again: COVID-19 is a pathogen with a two-week incubation period, during which there are no symptoms. The ability to spread the pathogen by cough, sneeze and touch is proven. The COVID-19 cases in China appeared to be much more dramatic in terms of disease spread and issues of confinement and public response, including Chinese military troops demonstrating the requirements for maintaining order. Images of fog-spraying throughout Wuhan are raising questions about the Chinese techniques for treating what appear to be blocks of urban areas. Italy’s disinfection program is likely to get support from the World Health Organization as well as from Arabian Gulf states, which are undergoing their own treatment programs, with daily reminders of sanitation and necessary behavior adjustment.
The Italian program will likely be used across red zone countries or urban areas and specifically infected “pathways,” or routes through which humans may carry the pathogen. Seattle comes to mind. So does the disaster in Qom. COVID-19 could infect 60 percent of the global population if unchecked, according to one expert. Everybody now seems to be aware of the pandemic, as amply demonstrated compared to a month ago. Italy will be damaged greatly during next month’s Easter holiday season.
Japan, South Korea and other countries come to mind when considering COVID-19 forced containment methods aimed at stopping transmission. Islands are good examples of containment. Japan’s Hokkaido is known for its ski resorts, natural hot springs and rolling hills, making it a major tourism magnet, but it is in lockdown after an upsurge in coronavirus infections forced local authorities to declare a state of emergency. That lockdown began on Feb. 28. Why is Hokkaido important? The rapid spread of the virus there due to its popularity as a winter tourism destination illustrated how disease spread can occur. The famed Sapporo Snow Festival, which saw artists carve giant ice sculptures between Jan. 31 and Feb. 11, drew millions of visitors from around the world. Any event involving large crowds increases the transmission rate and illustrates the limits of preventing spread.
To be clear, any event involving large crowds increases the transmission rate and illustrates the limits of preventing spread. Festivals and gatherings find people in close proximity, with funneling through entrances and exits putting people close to one another.
Italy’s red zone announcement and subsequent handling of the results — prison riots and people moving rapidly from Lombardy — are likely to set a standard example of how not being ready for a global pandemic such as COVID-19 impacts almost everyone, simply due to our interconnected world. Milan’s launch point illustrates the spread radius and its implications are overwhelming just about everyone. Local administrators from China to Italy are being found to be unprepared for such outbreaks.
In Lombardy, the fleeing helped to spread the pathogen. Containment strategies work when social distancing, in the form of self-isolation, prevents COVID-19 from scattering further. Home education helps to finish studies during the period of disinfection, and the encouragement of working from home and “staying put” during this period is important. The risk to Europe is extremely high as new clusters appear. Applying key isolation rules and adjusting behavior to stem the distribution of the disease through understanding crowd dynamics is increasingly important.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, DC. Twitter: @tkarasik

Children are neglected victims of Syria’s war
Mona Yacoubian/Al Arabiya/March 10/2020
As the war in Syria enters its tenth year, the conflict’s disproportionate toll on children underscores the generational challenge that lies ahead. An enduring political solution to the conflict remains a distant prospect, but humanitarian interventions to assuage Syrian children’s suffering must be prioritized today. An end to the fighting would be the most impactful development, but in the interim, intensifying efforts to address trauma, diminish early marriage and child labor, and rejuvenate education can help relieve some of the pain and begin to rescue the generation that holds Syria’s future.
Children have suffered in countless ways over the duration of the war: They have endured physical harm as well as borne the hidden wounds of psychological trauma. They have been victims of sexual violence. Children have been recruited and used in violence by all sides in the conflict, and have been held in detention, according to a January 2020 UN report. Across Syria, 500,000 children are chronically malnourished.
Whether inside Syria or outside the country as refugees, children have lost family members and friends, their homes and schools. In many instances they were forced to flee their homes, often multiple times, to escape violence. In other cases, they were compelled to go to Syria with parents answering the siren call of ISIS’ so-called caliphate. Some children were born into the caliphate, knowing only ISIS’s chaotic and horror-filled reality when the group occupied nearly one-third of Syria.
The recent carnage in Syria’s Idlib province underscores the extreme cost borne by Syrian children in the conflict. The al-Assad regime’s offensive—backed by Russia and Iran—sparked the single greatest episode of displacement since the start of the war nearly a decade ago. Children comprise 60 percent of the 961,000 people who have been on the move seeking safety from the regime’s onslaught since December 1, 2019. At one point the United Nations estimated that 6,500 children were being displaced daily. Displaced in the throes of winter, children have died from exposure. In late February the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) estimated that the number of children treated in one of its Idlib-based clinics had tripled.
Children who lived under ISIS occupation have both witnessed and been victims of unspeakable atrocities. Girls as young as nine were exploited as sex slaves; young boys have been forced to carry out acts of extreme violence including executions. Many of these children now live in displacement camps in northeast Syria under Kurdish control; two-thirds of the al-Hol camp’s population of 66,000 are children, with a large percentage hailing from more than 60 countries including neighboring Iraq. These children are in dire need of psycho-social interventions to address the trauma they have suffered.
The Syrian refugee crisis is the largest in the world. Syrian refugee children are increasingly vulnerable as pressure mounts in host communities, especially in Turkey and Lebanon, which host the largest numbers of Syrian refugees. Economic downturns in Lebanon and Turkey have compounded the already difficult situation faced by Syrian refugees. Many refugee families are thrust further into poverty and must rely on coping strategies that take children out of school such as child labor and early marriage.
The international community must do more to address the trauma and suffering of Syrian children. The moral imperatives embedded in the Geneva Conventions and laws of war demand the protection of children in armed conflict. Over the long term, security imperatives may also come into play. A generation of children who have grown up traumatized and without hope or a sense of dignity could turn to extremism for answers.
With conflict and instability still raging inside Syria, interventions to address childhood trauma and suffering are unfortunately limited. Nonetheless, efforts to create safe spaces—particularly in more stable areas but even in crowded displacement camps—must be enhanced. Innovative programming that leverages arts therapy and other creative approaches should be deployed with greater frequency. Telehealth programming with mental health professionals who can provide counseling to older children should also be supported wherever possible.
For those children from foreign countries living in camps for those displaced from former ISIS areas, the priority must be on repatriation. Some countries, particularly in Central Asia, have taken the lead in repatriating their citizens. Meanwhile, European countries have largely adopted a short-sighted approach, refusing to repatriate women and children from the camps. But, this must change. Greater effort must be made to facilitate the repatriation at least of European orphans currently in the camps.
As for Syrian refugee children, protection issues and education gaps will continue to be critical challenges. At a minimum, the international community must ensure that the UN humanitarian assistance appeal for Syria is fulfilled, and priority must be placed on increasing both psycho-social and education programming for these children.