LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 30/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
You cross sea and land to make a single
convert, and you make the new convert twice as much a child of hell as
yourselves
Saint Matthew 23/13-15/:"‘But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For
you lock people out of the kingdom of heaven. For you do not go in yourselves,
and when others are going in, you stop them. Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees,
hypocrites! For you cross sea and land to make a single convert, and you make
the new convert twice as much a child of hell as yourselves."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on June 29-30/2019
World Bank Says Lebanon on Right Track Regarding Reforms, Urges ‘Vigor’ in
Investment Projects
Satterfield in Beirut Next Week with Israeli Answers on Maritime Spat
Bteish Says Moody’s Report 'Unintimidating' and Lebanon Adheres to Pledges
Bustani: All Encroachments on River Property to Be Removed
Abu Faour: Firm Ties Will Be Restored between Mustaqbal-PSP
Geagea: Presidents Aoun, Hariri and the government are required to inform
Hezbollah of the need to apply the self distancing policy today more than ever!
Bassil from Dbayeh: The higher the level of women's participation in political
life, the lower the corruption level
Choucair says it is unacceptable for any town in Lebanon not to have phone and
internet services
Boustani tours Western Bekaa: Option of dams is strategic, Comprehensive plan to
remove violations along all rivers will be launched soon
Hawat tackles bilateral relations with Saudi Ambassador
Army Chief discusses prevailing conditions with US House Armed Services
Committee Member
Abu Faour launches a campaign to inspect plants along the Litani Basin
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on June 29-30/2019
Back on Track': Trump, Xi Agree to Resume Trade Talks
Gulf, Israel Closer after Bahrain Meet but Full Ties Unlikely
US Deploys F-22 Stealth Fighter Jets to Gulf
Iraq Urges Greater Int’l Support in Reconstruction
Saudi Crown Prince, Putin Underline Joint Cooperation
Sudan Military Accepts AU-Ethiopian Proposal on Transition
Haftar Vows Attacks on Turkish Assets in Libya
Haftar Orders Strikes on Turkish Targets in Libyan Territories
East Libya Parliament Accuses Pro-GNA Militias of War Crimes
Jailed British-Iranian Aid Worker Ends Hunger Strike in Tehran
Gulf States Hold Closed-Door Talks in Berlin to Change ‘Image’ of Iran Relations
Egyptian, Russian Presidents Discuss Cooperation Projects at G20
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 289-30/2019
Europe's Missing Islamic State Fighters/Soeren Kern/Gatestone
Institute/June 29/2019
Trump's Iran Sanctions are the Opposite of Madness/Bobby Gosh/Bloomberg/June
29/2019
What would it take to bring the Palestinians to Kushner's table?/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab
News/June 29, 2019
A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib/Fabrice Balanche/The Washington Institute/June
29/2019
Khamenei Will See Sanctions on Him as a Direct Challenge to the
Revolution/Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/June
29/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on June 29-30/2019
World Bank Says Lebanon on Right Track Regarding Reforms, Urges ‘Vigor’ in
Investment Projects
Naharnet/June 29/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri met at the Center House with the World Bank Vice
President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj, accompanied by the
Bank’s Regional Director for the Mashreq, Saroj Kumar Jha. After the meeting,
Belhaj said: “We met with Prime Minister Hariri after meeting with the Minister
of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil. They were constructive meetings and our
impression is positive. Lebanon is on the right track regarding the reforms in
the budget and electricity. We are optimistic about this, but reforms are a
continuous process that does not end. We are with the Lebanese government in
moving forward in these reforms, especially in electricity that is a vital
issue. “We also discussed the World Bank projects that are in the bank’s
portfolio. These projects need to be worked on with more vigor and support
because we have more than $2.4 billion in the World Bank's portfolio today, $1
billion of which are not in a positive position. The government should work
harder to complete these projects because they are investment projects and this
investment is positive.”He added: “In general, our impression is positive and we
are optimistic. But at the same time our optimism is cautious due to the
economic situation in the region, which is delicate. We have to be at the level
of responsibility. Our interaction with the Lebanese government is positive and
we hope that the coming days will be good.”Hariri also met with a delegation
from the International Monetary Fund, headed by the IMF’s head of mission for
Lebanon Chris Jarvis. They discussed the economic and financial situation and
the preparation of the annual report of the IMF. The delegation stressed the
importance of Lebanon speeding up the launching of the CEDRE projects and the
investment spending, which would stimulate growth and create jobs opportunities.
Hariri also received the Head of Mission and Force Commander of the United
Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, General Stefano Del Cole, in the presence of
the permanent representative of Lebanon to the United Nations Ambassador Amal
Mudallali and Hariri’s military Advisor Brigadier General Maroun Hitti.
Discussions tackled the security situation in the south and UNIFIL's missions.
Satterfield in Beirut Next Week with Israeli Answers on
Maritime Spat
Beirut - Khalil Fleihan/Asharq Al Awsat/June 29/2019
The US embassy in Beirut requested on Friday appointments for Acting US
Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield, who is
expected in Lebanon next Tuesday carrying Israel’s response on resolving a
dispute over the maritime border. The US envoy is expected to inform officials
about the Israeli responses to a number of issues in case the two sides start
indirect talks on demarcating their border based on the negotiation mechanism
proposed by President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Saad
Hariri. Last month, Israel said it was open to US-mediated talks with Lebanon on
resolving the dispute. It also accepted a Lebanese demand to involve the United
Nations in the effort and that both land and sea disputes be tackled together. A
source close to the talks told Asharq Al-Awsat on Friday that should Tel Aviv
accepts Beirut’s proposals, a memorandum should be signed by both parties,
guaranteed by Satterfield, who acts as a facilitator. “Israel needs to answer
questions related to the construction of the ‘White Line’, which Berri is very
interested in implementing,” the sources said. In past months, Lebanon conveyed
to Satterfield its determination to demarcate the maritime border through a
tripartite commission originally formed in April 1996 and that would cap it
achievements by demarcating the maritime “White Line” border. The sources said
that Tel Aviv is also requested to remove violations against Lebanon’s water
resources, in addition to lift threats against land border markers. Lebanon also
requests that the Israeli negotiating delegation be a military one, not
diplomatic, and that include experts in maritime laws. The sources said the
delayed Israeli response is maybe linked to Iran’s downing of a US spy plane and
the ensuing tensions in the region. “We should wait for Tel Aviv’s responses to
learn whether negotiations would kick off or whether Israel would rather delay
negotiations,” the sources said.
Bteish Says Moody’s Report 'Unintimidating' and Lebanon
Adheres to Pledges
Naharnet/June 29/2019
After Moody’s credit analysis of Lebanon that drew controversy, Economy Minister
Mansour Bteish said Moody’s warning is part of its job and that Lebanon abides
by its commitments. “Moody's warnings are part of its work and we have to do our
job,” so that we do not fall into the risks it warned us about, said Bteish in
remarks he made on Twitter.“There is no justification for intimidation,” he
added, “Lebanon abides by its commitments,” he said, referring to the over $11
billion in foreign aid pledged at last year’s CEDRE conference in Paris to
finance investment and infrastructure projects in Lebanon. Early this week,
Moody's said the slowing capital inflows and weak deposit growth, increases the
risk of a government response that will include a debt rescheduling or another
liability management exercise that may constitute a default. According to
Moody's, the ratio of public debt to Lebanon's GDP is the highest in comparison
with the countries that have been classified. The interest rate of total
revenues is 46.9%, the highest percentage of all countries, despite the
austerity measure taken by the government to control the state of public
finances in the draft budget.
Bustani: All Encroachments on River Property to Be Removed
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 29/2019
Energy Minister Nada al-Bustani revealed on Saturday that a plan has been
launched to remove all encroachments on the public land surrounding river
properties all around Lebanon. “The work has begun and all encroachments will be
removed wherever they may be,” said Bustani in remarks she made from the Litani
river area where security forces began removing violations. “A comprehensive
plan has been launched to remove encroachments on the public land surrounding
all river properties, not just the Litani river,” she pointed out. In an ongoing
recent campaign by the Litani River Authority to remove encroachments on its
property, hundreds of Syrian refugees who pitched tents on the land surrounding
the river were evicted .
Abu Faour: Firm Ties Will Be Restored between Mustaqbal-PSP
Naharnet/June 29/2019
Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour of the Progressive Socialist Party affirmed on
Saturday that ties between his party and al-Mustaqbal Movement will restore
“stability and steadfastness” after what he said was temporary tension.
“Relations between Mustaqbal and the PSP have gone through what is called a
"summer cloud," but the coming days will see the restoration of steadfast and
firm ties between (PSP chief) Walid Jumblat and (Mustaqbal leader, PM) Saad
Hariri,” said Abu Faour during an educational ceremony in Rashaya. The Minister
stressed the "depth" of the relationship between the two, and between Jumblat
and Hariri, saying this relationship is based on "solid foundation of
martyrdom." He pointed out that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will have a
“magical touch in bridging the rift between the allies and two friends.”Ties
between the two witnessed a downhill after a weekend spat on Twitter between
Hariri and the PSP which saw a truce after a reported intervention by Berri.
Geagea: Presidents Aoun, Hariri and the government are
required to inform Hezbollah of the need to apply the self distancing policy
today more than ever!
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, stressed the high importance of
safeguarding the self-distancing policy during these difficult times, deeming
that the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and the Council of
Ministers collectively are required to inform Hezbollah of the need to stick to
this policy today more than ever before. He added that it is unacceptable for a
party to drag the entire country to the unknown. "No one has the right to
manipulate the fate of others...The constitutional authorities must assume their
responsibilities in this matter," Geagea underscored. His words came in an
interview with "MTV" Station this evening, during which he shed light on a
number of hour issues at the local scene. The LF Chief seized the occasion to
commend the great efforts of MP Strida Geagea and the Cedars International
Festivals Committee in rendering this event a "breathing window" away from the
existing crises. Geagea also lauded her efforts for the region of Bcharre and
its people. He considered that MP Geagea and other LF deputies have managed to
transform the region into a strong republic. "This region is a sample of our
political project for Lebanon as a whole," he said, pointing out that "the
Bcharre Casa is a sample of the strong republic, the project of the Lebanese
Forces Party collectively."
Bassil from Dbayeh: The higher the level of women's participation in political
life, the lower the corruption level
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Free Patriotic Movement Chief, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, stressed Saturday
on the important role of women in Lebanese politics, considering that the higher
the level of women's participation in political life, the lower the level of
corruption. Bassil's words came in a brunch organized by FPM's Women's Committee
in Dbayeh this morning, attended by National Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab,
MP's Ibrahim Kanaan and Eddie Maalouf, and a number of prominent dignitaries.
"It is true that women are making efforts to take their place in the mainstream
and in political life in Lebanon, but it is also true that the problem is not in
their role at home or society, but in the man's mind who considers himself as
the main component at home even though the woman of today helps him in
everything," Bassil emphasized. He reiterated his personal conviction that the
contribution of women helps to purify political life in the country, since they
are more honest and credible than men. Bassil highlighted the need to encourage
a greater participation of women in politics, noting that the most significant
indicator of FPM's progress is the contribution of women and their advancement
within the Movement.
Choucair says it is unacceptable for any town in Lebanon
not to have phone and internet services
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Tele-Communications Minister Mohammed Choucair stressed Saturday that it is
unacceptable to have any town in Lebanon lacking phone and internet services.
Speaking before a delegation from the town of al-Qamamin in the district of al-Dinnieh
who came to raise their demands in terms mobile and land line services, Choucair
assured them of according the matter great importance. In this context, he
immediately contacted Ogero's Director-General Emad Kreidieh, who promised to
work on meeting their demands by establishing an LTE station in the
aforementioned town within two months. Choucair stressed that telecommunications
and internet services "are a right for all of Lebanon, and this cannot be linked
to economic feasibility," deeming this issue as "top priority."The delegation,
in turn, thanked Choucair for his support and for listening closely to their
demands, and presented him with an honorary shield as a token of appreciation.
Boustani tours Western Bekaa: Option of dams is strategic,
Comprehensive plan to remove violations along all rivers will be launched soon
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Water and Energy Minister, Nada al-Boustani, visited Saturday the western Bekaa
region within the framework of her Bekaa tour among a number of facilities and
plants that are part of her Ministry's circle of operations. Beginning her tour
in the town of Saghbine, Boustani assured its citizens of the state's duty to
safeguard the interests of its people and work to provide them with vital
services and needs. Boustani then visited the National Authority of the Litani
River, where she inspected the Lake Qaraoun Dam and the procedures underway to
reduce its pollution to get the highest capacity of water for irrigation and
electricity production. "What I saw on the banks of the Litani is terrifying,
but the government has taken its decision remove contaminants and pollution from
this vital artery. The option of building dams is a strategic option and we will
continue to work on it," Boustani confirmed.
She then attended a luncheon banquet at the residence of MP Abdul-Rahim Mrad in
Shtourama, upon an invitation by State Minister for Foreign Trade Hassan Mrad,
where she thanked Mrad and the people of the Bekaa for their warm hospitality
and the opportunity to meet with citizens who share a mutual interest in public
affairs. "We are at new crossroads in the electricity sector, namely with the
updated plan we started implementing two months ago, as approved by the Council
of Ministers, whose positive results we have begun to see, especially in terms
of reducing technical and non-technical waste and eliminating infringements in
all regions, and which has contributed to reducing the electricity deficit in
Lebanon while we await the construction of new plants," Boustani indicated. "In
parallel with this large workshop, we launched the update of the national
strategy for the water and sanitation sector, which will result in
recommendations and regulations in projects according to priorities in all
regions, and the western Bekaa region will certainly be at the core of these
projects," she maintained. "We will also launch a comprehensive national plan to
remove all encroachments on waterways and rivers in Lebanon, not only along the
Litani," Boustani added reassuringly "Minister Mrad and I, and all colleagues in
the Strong Lebanon Bloc, are working to achieve one major goal: to ensure
Lebanon's advancement and bring it back to the map of progress and prosperity
and help it emerge from the current economic crisis," the Energy Minister
asserted. She hoped that the oil sector would contribute to this renaissance,
especially that drilling works are expected to begin towards the year's end.
Hawat tackles bilateral relations with Saudi Ambassador
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Al Bukhari: We hope that this city will enjoy a large share of Saudi and Arab
tourists
Member of the "Strong Republic" Parliamentary Bloc, MP Ziad Hawat, received at
his Byblos office this morning Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed Al Bukhari,
in the presence of Byblos Mayor Wissam Zaarour, with bilateral relations
centering their discussions. Hawat welcomed the Saudi Ambassador in the city of
Jbeil, emphasizing the depth of the relationship between Lebanon and the Saudi
Kingdom, which has provided Lebanon and the Lebanese with all goodness and
support, whether by receiving a large number of Lebanese investors on its land
or through the Lebanese expatriates working in the Kingdom. "All this confirms
the Kingdom's keenness on the Lebanese people," he said. "Saudi Arabia has
always been on the side of the Lebanese state and legitimacy ever since the Taef
Accord and national reconciliation, and then the reconstruction of Lebanon and
the support of the Lebanese army, in addition to the financial grant it has
deposited at the Central Bank," Hawat went on. "All this embodies and affirms
the role of the Kingdom of Goodness in supporting the Lebanese society," he
corroborated. "Today we welcome Ambassador Al Bukhari to tell him that this city
is dear to the hearts of the Saudis and we hope that it will be a focal point
for Saudi tourists, whereby they would always visit it...Lebanon is their second
home, as is the city of Byblos, which enjoys all touristic specifications
whether religious, cultural, historical or environmental...and is capable of
receiving the Saudi brethren and friend with the best Arab hospitality in all
sectors and domains," Hawat reassured.
"We hope this year's summer season would be very good, and that the brotherly
relationship between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia will continue to be the best in
the presence of Ambassador Al Bukhari, who loves Lebanon and the Lebanese and is
interested in the affairs of this country, just as the Lebanese care about the
affairs of the Kingdom and its sons," concluded Hawat. Al Bukhari, in turn,
thanked Hawat and Zaarour for their warm reception, affirming that "the city of
Byblos has been a historic city for thousands of years, where all the
civilizations of the world have reconciled, from Phoenician to Roman, Arab and
Byzantine, so we see the reflection of this reality in this city that bears the
highest values of Lebanon - the message." He added: "We are conducting this
field visit to the city in order to get acquainted with the historical sites and
monuments that have dazzled the world, so we confirm through the 'Jusoor
Initiative' launched by the Embassy of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques in
Lebanon on communicating with all the regions of Lebanon and all Lebanese
components of all sects...""We affirm the Kingdom's mission to preserve the
security, stability and prosperity of Lebanon, and we hope that it would
safeguard its institutions and political gains in order to protect the Lebanese
people," Al Bukhari underscored. He thanked "the people of the city of Byblos,
who are characterized by their high ethics and values," hoping that "this city
will have a large share of Saudi and Arab tourists who would marvel at its
beauty and heritage."Responding to a question on a possible cooperation between
the Municipality of Byblos and Saudi Arabia, Al Bukhari said: "We discussed this
issue with the Mayor and there were joint proposals for possible cooperation. We
will hold subsequent meetings with the municipal council, which will submit a
request for cooperation between us, to be raised to the Saudi authorities."In
response to another question, he stressed that the visit "has no political
significance, but is a fraternal visit that reflects our communication," in line
with the Kingdom's launched imitative on emphasizing its role in this respect.
Army Chief discusses prevailing conditions with US House
Armed Services Committee Member
NNA - Sat 29 Jun 2019
Lebanese Armed Forces Chief Commander, General Joseph Aoun, met at his Yarzeh
office today with Member of the Armed Services Committee at the US House of
Representatives, Eric Trager, heading a delegation of the US Embassy in Lebanon,
in the presence of US Ambassador Elizabeth Richard. Talks touched on the general
situation in Lebanon and the region, in addition to bilateral cooperation
between both armies, with particular focus on the US military aids to the
Lebanese army.
Abu Faour launches a campaign to inspect plants along the
Litani Basin
NNA -Sat 29 Jun 2019
Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour launched Saturday a campaign to check on
compliance conditions of 4th & 5th category factories situated along the Litani
River Basin, following the deadline given by the Ministry of Industry.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
June 29-30/2019
Back on Track': Trump, Xi Agree to Resume
Trade Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 29/2019
US President Donald Trump said trade negotiations with China were "back on
track" after "excellent" talks Saturday with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
in which Washington reportedly agreed to hold off on new tariffs. The crunch
talks on the damaging trade war between the world's top two economies came on
the sidelines of a meeting of the G20 in Japan's Osaka, with all eyes on whether
the pair would agree a truce. "We had a very good meeting with President Xi of
China," Trump said after the talks. "I would say excellent.""We are right back
on track," he added without confirming any details of any agreement.
Both sides were expected to issue official formal statements later, but Chinese
state media said Washington had committed not to impose any new tariffs on
Beijing's exports and that the two sides had agreed to restart trade and
economic talks. The outcome was likely to be seen as a win, with experts
cautioning ahead of the meeting that a full agreement was unlikely but a truce
that avoided a new tit-for-tat round of tariffs would be positive. Trump has
struck a conciliatory tone since his arrival in Japan for the G20 summit,
despite saying China's economy was going "down the tubes" before he set out for
Osaka, and appeared keen to reach an agreement. He said he was ready for a
"historic" deal with China as the leaders kicked off their meeting and Xi told
him that "dialogue" was better than confrontation.
Climate fight
There were no immediate details about the leaders' discussions, including
whether they raised the thorny subject of Chinese telecoms firm Huawei.
Washington has banned the company over security concerns and China reportedly
wanted the restrictions lifted under the terms of any trade truce. The first
tete-a-tete between the leaders of the world's top two economies since the last
G20 in December has cast a long shadow over this year's gathering in Osaka,
where differences over climate change have also been laid bare. Economists say
that a lengthy trade war could be crippling for the global economy at a time
when headwinds including increased geopolitical tensions and Brexit are blowing
hard. On Friday, the European Union and the South American trade bloc Mercosur
sealed a blockbuster trade deal after 20 years of talks, with European
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker hailing it as a "strong message" in
support of "rules-based trade." Trade has proved far from the only contentious
issue on the table, with climate change becoming another major sticking point. A
diplomatic source said it had been a "difficult" night, with an American
negotiator pushing a "very tough position" and a group including France standing
united against watering down the climate language in the final statement. But an
agreement appeared to have been reached there too, with German Chancellor Angela
Merkel telling reporters that the final communique would preserve language used
at the two past G20 summits. "We will have a similar text to Argentina. A 19+1
declaration," she said. The so-called 19+1 formulation reiterates the commitment
of all G20 members except the United States to the Paris climate deal, from
which Washington plans to withdraw.
Trump-Kim meet?
Trump has dominated the headlines from the summit, and once again caught
observers by surprise by tweeting early Saturday that he was open to meeting
North Korea's Kim Jong Un while in South Korea this weekend. "If Chairman Kim of
North Korea sees this, I would meet him at the Border/DMZ just to shake his hand
and say Hello(?)!," he wrote. Several experts, however, said the focus on Trump
and the talks with China struck at the heart of the G20 format, created to craft
a united global response to the Lehman Brothers crisis. "With much of the fate
of the global economy and the likely direction of markets hanging on the outcome
of this pivotal Trump-Xi meeting, we think things will get worse before they get
better," said ING Economics. And the focus on bilateral meetings on the
sidelines of the summit once again sparked doubts about the future of the
gathering, experts said. "The G20 was created as a forum for cooperation and the
question may well be 'have we reached the point where it can no longer serve
that purpose'," Thomas Bernes from the Centre for International Governance
Innovation told AFP.
Gulf, Israel Closer after Bahrain Meet but Full Ties
Unlikely
Naharnet/June 29/2019
The US-organised economic workshop in Bahrain failed to deliver tangible results
over the long-awaited Middle East peace plan but it opened the door for closer
Israeli-Gulf ties, analysts say. Despite this, the normalisation of ties between
the Gulf oil monarchies and the Jewish state -- staunch US allies who have
common concerns over Iran -- remains unlikely without progress in resolving the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they say. In an unprecedented interview of a
senior Gulf official by an Israeli journalist, Bahrain's Foreign Minister Khalid
bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa said on the sidelines of the two-day workshop in Manama
that Israel is part of the region's heritage. "Israel is part of this heritage
of this whole region, historically, so the Jewish people have a place amongst
us," he said in the interview broadcast late Wednesday on Israel's Channel 13
television. Sheikh Khalid, a member of the ruling family of the tiny state,
called in a separate interview with the Times of Israel for improved relations
with Israel, but reiterated his country's commitment to the Arab Peace
Initiative. Neil Partrick, a London-based Middle East analyst, said the Bahraini
foreign minister's comments "will be the main achievement" of the workshop "as
far as the US and Israel are concerned". Meanwhile, an Israeli journalist
published on her Twitter account an interview with prominent UAE businessman
Mohammed Alabbar, who was among a group of business leaders who attended the
Bahrain workshop. "Young people and our children... want to live a life that has
hope and optimism and a better future," Alabbar, chief of real estate giant
Emaar Properties, told the journalist when asked what message he wants to send
Israeli audiences.
'Clear' message
After getting special permission, a handful of Israeli journalists attended the
conference in Bahrain, with which their country has no diplomatic relations --
like all Arab countries excluding Jordan and Egypt. "Countries such as Bahrain
are more willing to float the carrot of overt engagement, but I think it would
be highly premature to expect anything beyond flirtation without meaningful
change on the ground," said Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst with the
International Crisis Group think-tank. "The Gulf message is actually somewhat
clear in my view: Israel could be a useful, stable ally in a volatile region --
but only if there is an agreement with the Palestinians," she told AFP. In
recent years Israel has been courting Arab nations which do not recognise the
Jewish state, and in October Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held
surprise talks in Muscat with the ruler of Oman. These efforts at rapprochement
came as Iran -- the arch-foe of Israel and regional rival Saudi Arabia -- was
bolstering its influence in several Arab countries.US President Donald Trump's
son-in-law, Jared Kushner, launched the long-awaited Middle East initiative at
the conference, which the Palestinian Authority boycotted over fears it sought
to buy off the Palestinians and deprive them of an independent state.
Normalisation 'some way off' -
Partrick said it remained unlikely the conference in Bahrain "will lead directly
to full diplomatic relations with Israel without the Palestinian leadership
backing the final and political 'deal'". He said the "full and proper political
normalisation with Israel is still some way off", especially after the United
States recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2017. According to the
International Crisis Group, normalisation of ties between Arab countries and
Israel still depends on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. "If the Bahrain
workshop secures a place in future history books, it will be for exposing the
limits of Arab-Israeli rapprochement," it said in a report on Wednesday. It
underlines that "Israel's overt acceptance in the region requires it to resolve
its conflict with the Palestinians," it said. The Palestinians have boycotted
the US administration since Trump broke with decades of consensus by recognising
Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the
holy city last year. US officials have hinted the political part of the Middle
East plan -- which could come out later this year -- will not mention the
creation of an independent Palestinian state, a goal of decades of US diplomacy.
US Deploys F-22 Stealth Fighter Jets to Gulf
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Nearly a dozen Air Force F-22 stealth fighters have deployed to the Arabian
Gulf, part of a force buildup requested by US Central Command in May in response
to what it called heightened Iranian threats against American forces in the
region. The Air Force arm of US Central Command on Friday said the F-22 Raptors
arrived this week at Qatar’s al-Udeid air base to "defend American forces and
interests."It posted to its website photos of several F-22s arriving there on
Thursday and said this is the first time F-22s have deployed to al-Udeid. Four
B-52 strategic bombers were deployed to al-Udeid days after a May 5 White House
announcement that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group also was
being rushed to the region in response to "troubling and escalatory indications
and warnings" and as a "message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United
States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting
force."At the request of Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of Central Command,
additional Patriot air-and-missile defense systems also were sent to the Gulf
region in recent weeks. He also is receiving additional surveillance and
intelligence-gathering aircraft to improve the military's ability to monitor
potential Iranian threats against shipping in the Gulf area.
Iraq Urges Greater Int’l Support in Reconstruction
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
the international community to contribute greater support in helping his country
in its reconstruction efforts following the defeat of the ISIS terrorist group.
He said his country's sacrifices fighting the terrorist group mean it deserves
greater support from the international community. He made his remarks during a
meeting with a visiting UN Security Council members' delegation, the first such
visit to Iraq. Iraq declared victory against ISIS in July 2017, after its
military regained control of the country's second-largest city, Mosul, three
years after it was seized by the extremists. The war against ISIS left many
Iraqi cities, towns and villages destroyed and Iraq has been struggling to
reconstruct them. International donors pledged $30 billion to help rebuild Iraq
last year, far short of the estimated $88.2 billion needed.
Saudi Crown Prince, Putin Underline Joint Cooperation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Defense, held talks in Osaka on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
reported the Saudi Press Agency. Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit, the
two leaders discussed the joint coordination between their countries, most
notably in trade and investment, while also stressing the importance of
maintaining the oil cooperation between them. They also discussed bilateral
affairs and regional developments. Putin welcomed Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the
2020 G20 summit, underscoring Russia’s support in ensuring its success. Crown
Prince Mohammed highlighted the progress witnessed in Saudi-Russian ties in
recent years, most notably in the political, economic, military and security
fields. Putin is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia in October.
Sudan Military Accepts AU-Ethiopian Proposal on Transition
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Sudan’s ruling military council announced Friday that it has accepted a joint
proposal from the African Union and Ethiopia to work toward a transitional
government. Spokesman Lt. Gen. Shams Eddin Kabbashi said the council is ready to
resume "immediate, serious and honest" negotiations to end the political
stalemate with the protesters based on the joint proposal. Protest leaders,
represented by the coalition Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change, said
Thursday the proposal was based on a previous initiative from Ethiopia for a
power-sharing agreement. In recent weeks, Ethiopia and the AU have been
mediating between the military council and the pro-democracy movement demanding
civilian rule. Talks collapsed when Sudanese security forces cleared a protest
camp in the capital, Khartoum, earlier this month. The new proposal drafted by
the two calls for a civilian-majority ruling council as demanded by protesters,
but it fails to mention the make-up of a new transitional parliament. "Although
the transitional military council has some observations, the joint proposal from
the AU and Ethiopia can be a base for starting negotiations to form an interim
authority," Kabbashi remarked. The generals seized power after the army ousted
longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir on April 11 following months of nationwide
protests against his iron-fisted rule of three decades. But since then the
generals have resisted calls from demonstrators and Western nations to hand
power to a civilian administration. The joint proposal entails creating a
15-member, civilian-majority governing body for a three-year transitional
period. But it makes no mention of the composition of a legislative body.
Haftar Vows Attacks on Turkish Assets in Libya
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 29/2019
Strongman Khalifa Haftar has threatened to attack Turkish interests in Libya
after suffering a serious setback in his push to take the capital Tripoli,
accusing Ankara of backing his rivals. Anti-Haftar forces supporting Libya's
internationally recognised government announced Wednesday they had retaken the
strategic town of Gharyan in a surprise attack, seizing the main supply base for
Haftar's months-long offensive. Haftar on Saturday promised a "tough response"
and accused militias backing the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord of
executing his wounded troops at the town's hospital -- allegations refuted by
both the GNA and authorities in Gharyan. Dozens of pro-Haftar fighters were
killed in the clashes some 100 kilometres (60 miles) south of the capital and at
least 18 were taken prisoner by the GNA, a spokesman for the Tripoli-based
government said. In retaliation, Haftar ordered his self-styled Libyan National
Army to target Turkish ships and companies, ban flights and arrest Turkish
nationals in the country, his spokesman said. General Ahmed al-Mesmari accused
Ankara of "directly" intervening in the battle "with its soldiers, planes and
ships". He accused Turkey of assisting GNA forces to seize Gharyan, including
providing air cover, and slammed the town's residents for "treason". The LNA,
which holds eastern Libya and much of the country's south, seized Gharyan on
April 2, and two days later launched the offensive on Tripoli. But their initial
lightning advance was quickly brought to a standstill on Tripoli's southern
outskirts as militias backing the GNA rushed to defend the capital.
'Rebalance'
Both sides accuse each other of using foreign mercenaries and receiving military
support from foreign powers, despite a UN-imposed arms embargo on Libya enacted
following the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew Moamer Kadhafi's regime.
Haftar has the backing of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt and accuses Turkey
and Qatar of supporting the GNA. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently
confirmed his support for the GNA, saying Ankara was providing weapons to
Tripoli under a "military cooperation agreement". He told reporters on June 19
the Turkish backing had allowed Tripoli to "rebalance" in the fight against
Haftar. On Saturday Erdogan, speaking on the sidelines of the G20 summit in
Japan, said he did not have "any information" concerning Haftar's threat against
Turkish assets. "If there is an order like this from Haftar, my colleagues will
study (it). We have already taken the necessary measures regarding this anyway,
and after this, we will take much more different measures," he said. Since the
fall of Gharyan, Haftar's forces have carried out several air raids on Tripoli
as GNA fighters push to keep up pressure on the LNA and cut their supply lines.
On Friday GNA militias claimed they launched another succesful offensive, this
time in Esbiaa, more than 40 kilometres south of Tripoli.But Mesmari said the
attack was repulsed after a "very violent battle".
'Legitimate targets'
Mesmari said orders had been given to the LNA "air force to target Turkish ships
and boats in Libyan territorial waters". "Turkish strategic sites, companies and
projects belonging to the Turkish state (in Libya) are considered legitimate
targets by the armed forces," he added. "All Turkish nationals on Libyan
territory will be arrested," he said, and "all flights to and from Turkey will
be banned". Libyan airlines operate regular flights to Turkey from in Tripoli's
Matiga airport and a second in the western city of Misrata, where forces back
the GNA. Mesmari did not explain how the flight ban could apply to areas not
under Haftar's control. Turkey maintains good relations with the GNA and is one
of the few countries to have reopened its embassy in Tripoli after a spike in
violence in 2014 saw most diplomatics missions shuttered.
Haftar Orders Strikes on Turkish Targets in Libyan
Territories
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar ordered on Friday strikes
against Turkish ships anchored in Libya’s territorial waters in retaliation to
Ankara’s flagrant offensive. He also ordered attacks against “strategic Turkish
targets” in Libyan territories, which includes companies, centers and projects.
LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari confirmed that air forces were given orders to
attack ships and boats within Libya’s territorial waters. All flights to and
from Turkey have been halted and any Turkish national in Libya will be arrested,
he revealed.
East Libya Parliament Accuses Pro-GNA Militias of War Crimes
Cairo - Jamal Jawhar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Denying charges by the Libyan eastern-based parliament, forces loyal to the
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, said
they did not torture, kill and run over hostages and those injured from the
Libya National Army (LNA) in the battle for Gharyan.
The GNA on Thursday officially claimed seizing control over the strategic
northwestern town. The LNA has since launched a counter-offensive to recapture
it. Talal al-Mayhoub, chairman of the National Defense and Security Committee of
the Tobruk-based parliament, accused pro-Sarraj militias of committing heinous
human rights violations that amount to war crimes. “Terror groups, criminal
militias and contraband smugglers took advantage of security stability enjoyed
in LNA-liberated areas, to ambush and capture Gharyan town,” he said. In a
statement, he accused GNA affiliates of “committing mass killings against
prisoners, trampling them over with cars.” “They killed the wounded at the
Gharyan hospital in cold blood. They also prevented the evacuation of the
injured. GNA militias blocked the way for ambulances trying to leave with the
wounded,” he added, pointing out to the harrowing death that they met.
Meanwhile, Libyan human rights groups demanded holding a transparent
investigation into the charges being pressed against GNA proxies. Head of
Libya's National Human Rights Commission Ahmed Abdul Hakim Hamza said reported
crimes committed at the Gharyan area hospital, if backed with evidence, would
“undisputedly constitute a war crime.” Hamza called for conducting “a
comprehensive and transparent investigation by the Libyan Attorney General's
Office, the United Nations Support Mission in the country and International
Criminal Court,” stressing that “such war crimes are within the jurisdiction of
the ICC, according to the Rome Statute on which the ICC was established.”
Jailed British-Iranian Aid Worker Ends Hunger Strike in Tehran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Jailed British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has ended a hunger
strike in Tehran designed to push for her release, her husband told the BBC on
Saturday. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager with the Thomson Reuters
Foundation, began the hunger strike roughly two weeks ago. She was arrested in
April 2016 at a Tehran airport as she headed back to Britain with her daughter
after a family visit and was sentenced to five years in jail after being
convicted of plotting to overthrow Iran’s clerical establishment. Her family and
the Foundation, a charity organization that operates independently of Thomson
Reuters and Reuters News, deny the charge. Richard Ratcliffe, her husband, told
BBC radio that he had spoken to his wife on Saturday and she was ending the
action. “She’s decided to stop her hunger strike,” he said. “She said that in
fact she’d had some breakfast this morning.”"I'm relieved because I wouldn't
have wanted her to push it much longer.”Ratcliffe, who is ending his own hunger
strike, said the protest had helped raise the profile of his wife’s case. “In
Iran, we’ve become a much bigger story than we were before and there’s an
awareness that really this needs to be solved.”Ratcliffe had spent much of that
time picketing Iran's embassy in London, urging whoever is to succeed outgoing
Prime Minister Theresa May to make his wife's case a priority.
Gulf States Hold Closed-Door Talks in Berlin to Change
‘Image’ of Iran Relations
Berlin – Raghida Bahnam/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Gulf countries apprehensively approach Germany given its seemingly close
political ties with Iran and its somewhat “lenient” approach towards its regime.
Efforts have been increasing in Berlin to change this image among Gulf
countries. To that end, a forum, described as the first of its kind, was held in
the German capital to discuss the ties with the Gulf. The meeting brought
together decision-makers from the Gulf and Germany to hold frank, rather than
diplomatic, talks. The two-day meeting was organized by the Federal Academy for
Security Policy and the German-Arab Friendship Association and held away from
the media spotlight. Iran took center stage at the discussions given recent
tensions in the Gulf. The situation in each of Yemen, Syria and Iraq were also
covered. Gulf officials did not hesitate in blaming Iran for stoking tensions,
while also accusing Germany of failing to play a bigger role in easing them.
They also spoke of “economic interests” binding Berlin to Tehran that was
limiting Germany’s political policy. German officials at the talks, however were
keen to underline that Berlin and Tehran did not enjoy a “special” relationship.
German officials included figures from the defense and foreign ministries and
lawmakers. They stressed that economic relations do not dictate Germany’s
behavior.
Accusations of “special” relations between Germany and Iran are not unfounded
and date back to several decades and continued even after the 1979 revolution.
In 1984, then German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher visited Tehran,
becoming the first European official to do so since the revolution. Since then,
Germany became a main trade partner to Iran. In 2014, it was estimated that
German exports to Iran exceeded more than 3.5 billion euros. After the 2015
nuclear deal, this exchange increased even further. German Economy Minister
Sigmar Gabriel was among the first European officials to visit Tehran after the
deal was signed. In 2015, the trade exchange between the two countries reached
2.5 billion euros and these numbers increased in early 2016. They have, however,
started to steadily decline after the US withdrew from the nuclear accord in May
2018.
Despite this, Germany remains one of the greatest defenders of the nuclear pact
and it was among the European countries that reaped the most benefits from it,
which explains why Berlin is working tirelessly to salvage it, prompting
accusations that its relations with Tehran were dictated by its economic
interests. Officials at the forum refuted these claims, saying that their
country was seeking to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which would
lead to an arms race in the region. They said that the 2015 pact was the best
solution to the situation, reiterating their opposition to Washington’s
withdrawal from the deal.
MP Johann David Wadephul told Asharq Al-Awsat that disputes between Germany and
the Gulf were not a big as they are being portrayed. He pointed out that two
sides are in agreement that Iran should not acquire nuclear arms, but they had
differences over how to implement this. They were also in agreement that Iran’s
policies in the Middle East were aggressive and hostile, which is a danger to
peace in the region. On whether Germany and Iran enjoy special relations, he
said: “We do not share any strategic values or goals with Iran.”Moreover,
Wadephul said that after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, many
opportunities were available to reach a common strategy on Iran. “We must seize
the opportunity to draft a new pact because the old agreement is over.”“This
will give us a chance to reach a comprehensive deal that covers all of Iran’s
policies, including its hostile behavior that allows it to make gains in Syria
and other areas,” he remarked. In addition, he said that economic ties were not
dictating relations between Berlin and Tehran. “We do not have an important
economic relationship with Iran. We have very important economic ties with the
Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia,” he stressed. According to the German
Foreign Ministry, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are Berlin’s two
greatest trade partners in the region. In 2017, German imports to the Kingdom
exceeded 6.5 billion euros. Relations between Riyadh and Berlin have returned to
normal after previous tensions that saw the Kingdom withdraw its ambassador in
2017 over the then German foreign minister’s accusation that Saudi Arabia was
behind the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri from his post.
Relations went back on track after current Foreign Minister Heiko Maas offered a
public apology during a joint press conference with then Saudi Foreign Minister
Adel al-Jubeir on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Saudi
Arabia has since then appointed a new ambassador, Prince Faisal bin Farhan
al-Saud, who was born in Germany.
The envoy took part in the opening of the Berlin forum. He told Asharq Al-Awsat
that since assuming his post earlier this year, he sensed “great interest” from
Germany in relations with Saudi Arabia and the important role it plays. He
echoed Wadephul’s comments that Germany was not close to Iran. “I think they
realize that the greatest source of instability in the region is currently
Iran,” he stated. Indeed, the side discussions at the forum focused on Yemen and
Tehran’s role there. The Gulf participants said that Tehran is the main backer
of the Houthi militias and it was obstructing the UN-sponsored political
dialogue. They urged Germany to exploit its relationship with Iran to pressure
the Houthis to accept political dialogue based on international resolutions.
They also called on it to “quit playing the role of silent mediator and play an
active one.”Despite German officials’ acknowledgment that Iran was involved in
the conflict, they asserted that the Yemenis alone could end the war. They did
admit, however, that Tehran has a hand in hindering progress, in contrast to
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s positive role that facilitated the Stockholm agreement.
Head of the Federal Academy for Security Policy Karl-Heinz Kamp said that the
forum served as a platform for Gulf-German talks, acknowledging the problems
between the two sides. He hoped that the forum would be held on an annual basis.
“We realize that Iran poses a danger to us too,” he added, saying that Germany’s
foreign policy was closest to the Gulf policy.
Egyptian, Russian Presidents Discuss Cooperation Projects
at G20
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 June, 2019
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held talks on Saturday with Russian
President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, reported
the Saudi Press Agency. Discussions focused on bilateral ties and important
cooperation projects between their countries, including the construction of the
al-Dabaa nuclear power plant. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, had also held talks with Sisi at the
global summit.
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 29-30/2019
Europe's Missing Islamic State Fighters
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/June 29/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14459/europe-returning-jihadists
Swedish Television surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities —
Gothenburg, Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the
150 IS returnees and found that those municipalities combined only have
knowledge of the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.
"The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies
to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on
trial... The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release
them..." — U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter, February 16, 2019.
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, "The West's Foreign Fighter
Problem," noted that European governments face a "Catch-22" situation: either
repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the
radar and carry out new attacks in Europe.
"[I]t is particularly worrying that the [German] federal government appears to
have taken no further measures to prevent the uncontrolled re-entry of
underground IS [Islamic State] fighters," says Linda Teuteberg, Secretary
General of Germany's Free Democratic Party. She added that the government "still
has no concept for dealing with former IS fighters from Germany," including
"Germans detained in the war zone as well as the more than 200 former IS
supporters who are now back in Germany."
The German government has lost track of scores of Germans who travelled to Iraq
and Syria in recent years to join the Islamic State (IS). The revelation comes
amid growing fears that some of these fighters are returning to Germany
undetected by authorities.
The German Interior Ministry, in response to a question from the Secretary
General of the classical liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), Linda Teuteberg,
revealed that German authorities lack information on the whereabouts of at least
160 Germans who left to fight with the IS, according to Welt am Sonntag. The
ministry said that while some had probably been killed in combat, others have
gone into hiding and may be trying to resettle in Germany.
"In view of the very fragmented protection of the EU's external borders, it is
particularly worrying that the federal government appears to have taken no
further measures to prevent the uncontrolled re-entry of underground IS
fighters," Teuteberg told Welt am Sonntag. She added that the government "still
has no concept" for dealing with former IS fighters from Germany, including
"Germans detained in the war zone as well as the more than 200 former IS
supporters who are now back in Germany."
Teuteberg said that the Interior Ministry should come up with a plan for how to
deal with IS returnees and how to hold them accountable, by, for example,
strengthening the legal capacity to investigate and prosecute war crimes abroad.
Of the estimated 1,050 Germans who travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight in
recent years, approximately one-third (350) have returned to Germany. Another
220 are believed to have been killed on the battlefield. According to government
sources cited by the German television program Tagesschau, approximately 120 are
being detained in Iraq and Syria. In addition, at least 138 children of German
IS fighters are being held Iraq and Syria. The whereabouts of the others are
unknown.
The German government downplayed Teuteberg's concerns that IS fighters can
return to Germany unnoticed:
"Given the different measures (including most-wanted lists or entry barriers)
that make uncontrolled re-entry significantly more difficult, it is also assumed
in the future that entry without the knowledge of the German security
authorities should remain the exception."
It is known, however, that IS fighters have entered Europe — including Germany —
undetected by posing as migrants: a majority of the terrorists who carried out
the November 2015 Paris attacks, in which 130 people were killed and 360
injured, entered Europe by posing as migrants, according to counter-terrorism
investigators. Most of the attackers were well-known to police and at least nine
were on terrorist watch lists. Once they passed through the EU's porous borders
in southern Europe, they were able to travel throughout the rest of Europe
undetected.
Missing IS fighters are a Europe-wide problem. A July 2018 study by the
International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at King's College
London estimated that more than 5,900 people — 3,379 men, 1,023 women, 1,502
minors — from Western Europe joined the Islamic State. Another 7,250 people from
Eastern Europe joined the group.
According to ICSR estimates, around 1,765 IS fighters have returned to Western
Europe, and 784 have returned to Eastern Europe. At least 800 IS fighters are
being held at Kurdish detention camps in northern Syria. Around 700 of the
fighters' wives and 1,500 of their children are also in camps, according to
Reuters. It remains unclear how many of the unaccounted IS fighters have been
killed on the battlefield, and how many have gone into hiding.
In Austria, for instance, of the 250 IS fighters, 93 have returned. In Belgium,
of the 500 IS fighters, 123 have returned. In Britain, of the 850 IS fighters,
425 have returned. In Denmark, of the 145 IS fighters, 72 have returned. In
France, of the 1,900 IS fighters, 400 have returned. In Italy, of the 129 IS
fighters, 11 have returned. In the Netherlands, of the 300 IS fighters, 60 have
returned. In Spain, of the 210 IS fighters, 30 have returned.
In Sweden, of the estimated 300 people who left the country to join the Islamic
State, approximately 150 have returned, according to the Swedish Security
Service (Säpo). Around 100 Swedish fighters are believed to have died on the
battlefield; the government does not have information on the whereabouts of the
others.
Between 35 and 40 Swedish IS fighters have returned to Stockholm, but the
municipality has not made contact with a single returnee, and may not even know
where any of them live, according to an exposé by Swedish Television (SVT), the
national public television broadcaster.
SVT surveyed officials in the five Swedish municipalities — Gothenburg,
Stockholm, Örebro, Malmö and Borås — that are home to most of the 150 IS
returnees, and found that those municipalities combined only have knowledge of
the whereabouts of a maximum of 16 adults and 10 children.
The apparent apathy has been attributed to Sweden's lack of legislation. "We are
almost the only country in the EU that lacks legislation against participation
and cooperation with terrorist organizations," said Magnus Ranstorp, a
counter-terrorism expert at the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm. "We are
of course vulnerable," he added. "Those who are dangerous and out on our streets
can recruit more, and they can even plan terrorist acts."
Meanwhile, hundreds of foreign jihadi fighters who are being held in Syria
represent a "time bomb" and could escape and threaten the West unless countries
do more to take them back, according to the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed authorities
holding them.
"It seems most of the countries have decided that they're done with them, let's
leave them here, but this is a very big mistake," said Abdulkarim Omar of the
Syrian Democratic Forces. "Their home countries must do more to prosecute
foreign fighters and rehabilitate their families, or else this will be a danger
and a time bomb."
In February 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump called on European countries to
repatriate and prosecute their foreign fighters:
"The United States is asking Britain, France, Germany and other European allies
to take back over 800 ISIS fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on
trial. The Caliphate is ready to fall. The alternative is not a good one in that
we will be forced to release them...
"The U.S. does not want to watch as these ISIS fighters permeate Europe, which
is where they are expected to go. We do so much, and spend so much. Time for
others to step up and do the job that they are so capable of doing. We are
pulling back after 100% Caliphate victory!"
In April, Trump tweeted:
"We have 1,800 ISIS Prisoners taken hostage in our final battles to destroy 100%
of the Caliphate in Syria. Decisions are now being made as to what to do with
these dangerous prisoners.... European countries are not helping at all, even
though this was very much done for their benefit. They are refusing to take back
prisoners from their specific countries. Not good!"
On June 24, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, called
for all foreign fighters who are being detained in Syria and Iraq to be
repatriated, investigated and prosecuted, or released. "The continuing detention
of individuals not suspected of crimes, in the absence of lawful basis and
regular independent judicial review, is not acceptable," she said.
Europe's reluctance to take back their IS fighters is based on a mix of legal,
financial and political factors. Some countries have begun repatriating the
children of IS jihadis on a case-by-case basis but taking back foreign fighters
and their families is deeply unpopular and carries political risk.
In France, for instance, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe recently said that he
preferred that French jihadis were repatriated rather than them risk evading
justice. They should be "tried, convicted and punished in France rather than
disappearing in the wild to plan other actions, including against our country,"
he said in a January 30 interview with France Inter. His comments sparked an
immediate backlash. Valérie Boyer of the center-right party Les Républicains
told parliament that the government must "prevent the return of jihadists who
betrayed France and fought against our civilization."
National Assembly MEP Nicolas Bay, who is also a member of the executive board
of Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN), added:
"The French jihadis, by their commitment alongside groups that declared war on
our country, having committed ignoble attacks on our territory, these jihadists
have deliberately chosen to break with France and there is no justification for
granting them any protection.
"Rather than preparing for their return, the government should do everything
possible to prevent them from returning to French territory! They must be judged
by the competent Syrian and Iraqi authorities."
Philippe subsequently did an about-face. In a March 6 interview with BFM TV, he
said:
"We will not bring back anybody. The French doctrine has always been that the
French fighters who are going to combat zones are fighting against us. When they
are detained, they are to be judged and, if necessary, punished on the spot [in
Iraq or Syria]."
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent editorial, "The West's Foreign Fighter
Problem," noted that European governments face a "Catch-22" situation: either
repatriate and prosecute their jihadis, or risk that they disappear off the
radar and carry out new attacks in Europe. The Journal wrote:
"In February President Trump tweeted that the U.S. 'is asking Britain, France,
Germany and other European allies to take back' their ISIS fighters and
prosecute them at home. Indonesia, Morocco, Russia, and Sudan started the
process months ago, but Western European governments are resisting.
"Bending to domestic political pressure, European politicians like U.K. Home
Secretary Sajid Javid have vowed to reject ISIS members and even strip them of
citizenship. German and French officials also publicly express skepticism about
accepting imprisoned terrorists. Countries that criticized the U.S. over
Guantanamo Bay now are turning a blind eye to the detention of their citizens
elsewhere....
"The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have treated detainees humanely, but it
can't hold them forever. The group eventually will have no choice but to let the
prisoners go — making a manageable security threat much worse. These
battle-hardened fighters are especially dangerous given their practical
knowledge and the respect they could command among would-be jihadists.
"Many released fighters would slip into Iraq, blend in with sympathetic Sunni
populations, and prepare for an ISIS revival. Others could exploit security
vacuums in Libya or Somalia or jump-start conflicts in other unstable regions.
Perhaps the greatest risk is that some will return to the West undetected
alongside refugees. Countries hesitant to take back their citizens now should
realize they might return anyway—clandestinely."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Trump's Iran Sanctions are the Opposite of Madness
Bobby Gosh/Bloomberg/June 29/2019
Poor Hassan Rouhani: Iran’s president is so inconsequential that the Trump
administration didn’t even bother to impose sanctions on him. The US has now
levied them on supreme leader Ali Khamenei and eight military commanders, and is
preparing similar measures against Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. It had
already sanctioned Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, and designated
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group.
In the virulently anti-American politics of Iran, being targeted in this way by
the “Great Satan” is something of a badge of honor – one that has been denied
the Iranian president, who is regarded with open contempt by his hardline
opponents and by his boss. In a certain light, then, Rouhani’s latest
description of the White House as having a “mental disorder” might be read as a
petulant complaint that his name wasn’t on President Trump’s hit-list.
The sanctions on Khamenei may not have a great deal of impact on the ayatollah
himself – he doesn’t travel beyond Iran’s borders, nor does he have any known
holdings abroad. (Zarif, on the other hand, will miss his access to the salons
and think-tanks of New York.) It is hard to know which portions of Khamenei’s
multibillion-dollar business empire might be affected, but an enterprise built
by seizing the property and businesses of his subjects can, presumably, be
rebuilt by seizing some more.
Whatever the efficacy of the new measures, however, they are hardly a sign of
madness. On the contrary, they are a sane alternative to what Donald Trump
briefly contemplated last week: A military response to Iran’s many provocations.
The regime in Tehran has said the latest sanctions close the door for
negotiations forever. This is plainly disingenuous. Khamenei had already slammed
that door in the face of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who made a
good-faith effort to mediate talks between the US and Iran, only to be
humiliated by the supreme leader. Tehran has also ignored offers of mediation
from Oman and Qatar, and has dismissed out of hand statements from Trump and
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the US was open to negotiations, without
preconditions.
And there were plenty of other signs that the Iranians had no intention of
negotiating – the attacks on neutral shipping, on Saudi oil installations, on an
American drone.
There is no such thing as forever in geopolitics. Khamenei, it would appear, is
inclined to wait until after the 2020 US presidential election before
reconsidering his intransigence about negotiations. He is hoping that Trump will
lose the election, and that the 46th US president will be more favorably
inclined toward Tehran. In the meantime, Iran will build up some leverage –
enhancing its uranium stockpile and threatening the stability of the Middle East
and safety of crucial shipping lanes.
But Trump, too, might profitably run down the clock on the current government in
Tehran. There, the next presidential election is only due in 2021: Rouhani
cannot run again, and it is all but certain that he will be replaced by one of
the regime’s hardliners. Zarif, who is in bad odor with the same group, will be
out, too – so the sanctions on him will be moot. The unelected Khamenei will
remain.
Rather than embark now on a lengthy process of negotiations, the White House
might think it better to give the sanctions two more years to wreak more
destruction on the Iranian economy and weaken Tehran’s position. If Iran keeps
enriching uranium and attacking shipping lanes in the meantime it will
antagonize the international community, prompting more countries – and
especially the Europeans – to support the US position.
And when the negotiations do eventually begin, the sanctions on Khamenei could
be one more piece of leverage for the American side, their removal one more
small incentive to dangle before the supreme leader. In the meantime, Khamenei
can enjoy his badge of honor – much to Rouhani’s envy.
What would it take to bring the Palestinians to Kushner's table?
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/June 29, 2019
As the G20 summit concluded in Osaka, I could not help but imagine how great it
would have been if last week’s Peace to Prosperity workshop in Bahrain had taken
a different path. Indeed, think what would have happened if both Israelis and
Palestinians had not only come to Manama but also agreed on a negotiation
agenda, and Jared Kushner had flown to Japan bearing the good news.
I imagine the final communique of the Osaka summit would have included an
endorsement and a pledge of political and financial support from the world’s 20
biggest economies.
Alas, there was no agreement in Manama, mainly because the Palestinian
leadership boycotted the workshop. In addition, the Israeli government remains
in limbo until new elections in September.
Two things must be said about the Bahrain workshop. First, while there is much
ambiguity and skepticism about the unannounced political element of Kushner’s
peace plan for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there is no question that his
team did an impressive job on the economic front; the details show a great deal
of thought and planning for what it would take not only to reignite and sustain
the Palestinian economy, but also to help neighboring countries by making
Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt beneficiaries.
Second, it is difficult to disagree with Kushner’s view that the Palestinian
boycott was a “strategic mistake.” While we as Arabs have always respected the
Palestinian leadership’s decisions, and always will, many of us — respectfully —
disagree with the decision not to attend the Manama workshop.
If we pass on this opportunity, what guarantees are there that the next one — if
indeed there is one — will be any better?
We do so because the Palestinian no-show only enhanced Israel’s image, further
damaged the relationship with Washington, and provided opportunities for
second-guessing the Palestinian side’s intentions and seriousness.
In contrast, sending even a low-level representative or spokesperson would have
been sufficient to take control of the narrative. Mere participation would not
necessarily have meant accepting the yet-to-be revealed political terms (all
that is known so far is that, as previously reported in this column, they will
not be based on the 2002 Arab Peace Plan, but will contain some elements of it).
Not to cry over spilt milk, but the strategic move would have been for the
Palestinian side to use the workshop (which by default was attended by
sympathetic countries, NGOs, businesses and potential donors) to fight for their
just cause and rally support for more favorable political terms.
Of course, those who pretend to be friends of Palestine, such as Qatar and Iran,
argue otherwise (Qatar waged a nasty media campaign urging others to boycott the
workshop, then hypocritically sent its Minister of Finance).
Palestinian officials may have chosen to boycott Manama in the hope that it
would demolish the whole Kushner plan, or at least win some time until,
potentially, a new US president is elected next year. True friends of Palestine
would warn of the consequences of such tactics, particularly in relation to US
elections; in American politics, being pro-Palestinian does not win votes —
being pro-Israeli does!
The Trump administration has already shown it is capable of taking controversial
measures by moving its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, cutting off
Palestinian aid and preventing the PLO from operating in Washington (had all
this not happened, perhaps Team Kushner would have found it easier to bring the
Palestinians on board). Nevertheless, Kushner made it clear in Manama that the
Palestinians will not be punished for boycotting the workshop, and that the door
will remain open for them to come to the negotiating table. Of course, the
Palestinian leadership believes that what is on the table is far from ideal, but
it would be wrong for them not to recognize it as containing the kernel of a
possible deal.
I say this because if we pass on this opportunity, what guarantees are there
that the next one — if indeed there is one — will be any better? If anything,
history suggests the opposite.
So is there anything the Trump administration can do to engage the Palestinian
leadership? Well, perhaps some form of political guarantee would demolish the
perception (made popular by Iranian and Qatari media) that the $50 billion
economic plan is a bribe — a price to “liquidate the cause” of Palestinian
statehood.
Even then, while Team Kushner may be happy to show goodwill, how can they
operate if the Palestinian side is unwilling to reciprocate? Perhaps the
solution lies in benefiting from the time before the Israeli elections to
revisit the Palestinian leadership and try to convince them once more.
Moreover, given the lack of trust, Team Kushner may be well advised to bring a
fourth party into the equation — perhaps a country or an entity to which neither
Israelis nor Palestinians would object.
*Faisal J. Abbas is Editor-in-Chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas
A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib
Fabrice Balanche/The Washington Institute/June 29/2019
As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are
fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as
much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.
On May 6, Syrian regime forces launched a ground offensive against the rebel
stronghold of Idlib. Thus far, the fighting is concentrated in two relatively
small areas, and the regime’s territorial gains have been modest. Yet Bashar
al-Assad and Russia ultimately aim to eliminate the rebel presence in the
province once and for all (a desire shared by Iran, though its Shia militia
proxies are not yet involved in this fight). Their long-term reconquest strategy
is inspired by the seminal counterinsurgency methods of the late French officer
David Galula, but with one important difference: they are not trying to win the
hearts of Idlib’s population, they are trying to wring its neck.
Meanwhile, Turkey is not yet ready to abandon the field. It has reinforced its
observation posts in the heart of the combat zone and provided more weapons to
pro-Turkish rebel factions. Will such efforts help the rebels turn back the
offensive, or will Ankara withdraw its support once Russia delivers its promised
S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey? More important, what will happen to the
hundreds of thousands of noncombatants in the province if the fighting turns
into the type of protracted displacement campaign seen in Aleppo?
SMALL TERRITORIAL GAINS, LARGE MILITARY LOSSES
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Assad’s army has lost more
than 600 men since April 30—a significant tally given that thousands of wounded
troops are out of action and defections have continued. This is especially true
among the new “reconciled” conscripts hailing from former rebel areas. They have
suffered the most casualties, which is not so concerning to the regime. Yet
Assad’s fellow Alawites are paying a high price as well: more than eighty bodies
came back to Latakia in May and probably the same number in Tartus, stirring
anger against the regime.
The recapture of Qalaat al-Madiq has been the army’s only real success so far.
In northwest Idlib, artillery and aviation are pounding Jabal Kabani, a mountain
that has been fortified by leading jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in order
to protect Jisr al-Shughour and threaten the coastal region. Although successive
assaults on the mountain have all ended in bloody failure, Moscow will likely
keep up the pressure because it wants to extend the halo of protection around
its coastal air base at Hmeimim, which is currently in range of rebel missile
and drone attacks.
Losses are greater on the rebel side, with SOHR reporting more than 800 killed
and thousands wounded. Such casualties cannot be supported indefinitely given
that local hospitals are being systematically destroyed by aviation. For now,
though, the calm on most other fronts is allowing the rebels to focus on
southwest Idlib. The return of TOW missiles—which Turkey gave to its proxies
Jaish al-Izza and the National Front for Liberation with U.S. permission—has
blocked the advance of Syrian armored vehicles, even when they have air cover.
The rebels were also able to launch a successful counteroffensive on June 6,
penetrating the army’s first lines of defense between Mahardah and al-Suqaylabiyah.
The goal of this thrust is to encircle Mahardah and then threaten Hama, which
could force the regime to pause its offensive and halt its massive bombing in
other parts of the rebel enclave.
SYSTEMATIC DESTRUCTION OF IDLIB
Around two-thirds of the province has been subjected to heavy airstrikes in
recent weeks. Most of this bombardment occurs south of the Aleppo-Latakia
highway, but Idlib city has been regularly hit as well. The targets are both
military and civilian; the main objective is to spur civilians into fleeing for
the Turkish border, thereby isolating rebel fighters in the south. The
bombardment follows a clear pattern: the first wave of strikes typically focuses
on military targets as a warning to civilians living nearby; the second wave
consists of blind strikes throughout a given area, indicating that anyone within
that perimeter will be targeted; the third wave is a complete deluge, since all
who still remain in the area are considered to be rebels.
When Syrian and Russian forces bomb towns far from the frontline (e.g., Saraqeb,
Kafr Nabl, Maarat al-Numan), they claim that the goal is to cut the insurgency’s
logistical lines. In actuality, their aim is to prevent normal life in the rebel
zone. Galula wrote that civilians will eventually reject an insurrection when it
is unable to protect them, and Assad has seemingly counted on this principle for
years now. In a civil war like Syria’s, most people ultimately rally to the
faction that instills the most fear, not the one with the most righteous cause.
This also explains why moderate rebels have largely been supplanted by the likes
of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
On June 18, Mark Lowcock, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), presented an alarming report to the Security
Council regarding the humanitarian situation in Idlib. Since May 1, around
330,000 people have fled their homes in the province, most of them piling up in
the 342 informal camps established along the border with Turkey. They head to
these already saturated camps because they believe they will safer there—which
is true for now because the area has not yet been subjected to bombardment, and
because international NGOs can access it from Turkey rather easily, resulting in
an abundance of aid. This creates a paradox: NGOs and the UN are unintentionally
promoting the Syrian-Russian strategy to empty south Idlib.
OCHA also notes that 250,000 children are out of school because their
educational facilities are either destroyed or being used as homes for
internally displaced persons (IDPs). Even when school facilities are available,
many parents refuse to send their children there for fear of bombing. This
year’s final exams have all been canceled—a deeply disheartening situation for a
population that is very committed to education. The regime is quick to exploit
such sentiment, repeatedly reminding Idlib families that they have two options:
use the humanitarian corridors at Morek and Abu Duhur to shelter in
government-controlled areas, or continue living amid chaos indefinitely.
RESHAPING IDLIB’S DEMOGRAPHICS
To be effective in the long term, the regime’s brutal counterinsurgency strategy
must destroy the possibility of opposition for decades to come—a goal that
requires demographic reengineering. Hundreds of thousands of regime opponents
have taken refuge in Idlib following rebel defeats in Homs, East Aleppo, East
Ghouta, Deraa, Rastan, and elsewhere. Assad has made clear that he wants to
drive all of them out of the country. Those with financial means have already
left; for instance, the prominent Alloush clan quickly fled to Turkey and later
moved to Saudi Arabia, the long-time patron of their rebel group Jaish al-Islam.
The regime considers the hundreds of thousands of oppositionist IDPs as
irreconcilable; worse yet, it seems to feel the same about a large part of
Idlib’s native population, many of whom supported the rebellion.
Putting an exact number on this potential future exodus is difficult, but if the
regime gets its way, Idlib may lose between one quarter and one half of its
estimated 2.5 million residents. This prospect will likely convince some local
communities to take the regime’s side, especially as the threat of collective
punishment escalates.
Some communities have more to fear from a regime victory than others, however.
The frontline along the Hama-Idlib frontier represents not just a site of armed
confrontation, but also a cleavage between sectarian communities. The Christian
towns of Mahardah and Suqaylabiyah and the Alawite areas to the north and west
have been hit hard by Sunni rebel fire over the past few years. Since May 6,
some twenty civilians have been killed in Mahardah alone. Most loyalist
populations do not want to rub shoulders with such enemies postwar; in their
view, even disarmed former rebels pose an existential threat due to the strong
demographic growth among Sunni Arabs.
For example, between 1970 and the most recent census year (2004), Christians
decreased from 50 percent of Mahardah’s population to less than 20 percent,
while Sunnis grew to more than 80 percent. The differential between Alawites and
Sunnis is also very pronounced; from 1994 to 2004, population growth in the
Sunni district of Maarat al-Numan was 4 percent per year, compared to only 1.4
percent in the neighboring Alawite district of Masyaf. The regime therefore aims
to alter the area’s demographics for the benefit of Alawites, as well as local
Ismaili Muslims and Christians, who have remained largely loyal during the war.
DISPLACED PERSONS ARE A TIME BOMB
Various pressures have so far prevented the regime and its allies from launching
a full-scale ground invasion of Idlib, yet their current strategy may be
sufficient to destroy the rebel stronghold and displace its population if left
unchecked. In the absence of additional shelter facilities, many IDPs have
camped in local olive groves, but this arrangement will likely become unbearable
as winter approaches and more IDPs arrive at the border. The precedent set in
East Aleppo is ominous—the Syrian army bombed the area for three years before
storming it, thereby reducing the number of civilians from 1.5 million to less
than 100,000 on the eve of the ground offensive. Damascus and Moscow seem intent
on applying the same strategy to Idlib, and the humanitarian time bomb they have
set is ticking away.
*Fabrice Balanche is an assistant professor and research director at the
University of Lyon 2, and author of Sectarianism in Syria’s Civil War: A
Geopolitical Study.
Khamenei Will See Sanctions on Him as a Direct Challenge to the Revolution
Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/June 29/2019
The Supreme Leader regards his rule as the central feature of the Islamic
Revolution, so the latest White House order will seem like a shot at the entire
system.
The natural temptation when analyzing new U.S. sanctions against Iran is to ask
what economic impact they will have. By that metric, President Trump’s June 24
executive order may seem modest—it closes the U.S. financial system to those who
deal with individuals directly appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or with
institutions controlled by these appointees.
Economic impact is the wrong metric, however. The main U.S. objective is to
press Iran’s leaders, not reduce the country to poverty. Therefore, a better
question to ask is: how will the new sanctions affect Iran’s leaders? The answer
is clear: no steps could be better designed to infuriate the regime’s top
official than the June 24 executive order.
IN KHAMENEI’S EYES, HE IS THE REVOLUTION
The essence of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution was the concept of “guardianship
of the jurist,” or velayat-e faqih. This was the rock on which the revolution
was founded, embedded in a constitution that gives absolute power to the
nation’s top jurist, the Supreme Leader. Khamenei’s predecessor, Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, once ruled that the Supreme Leader has the authority to set
aside not only any Iranian civic law, but also any aspect of Islamic law if he
deems it expedient.
Since assuming power in 1989, Khamenei has taken velayat-e faqih several steps
further. Under Khomeini, many leading clerics were lukewarm toward the principle
or even critical of it. Yet Khamenei has repeatedly made statements like the
following: “All Muslims including the grand ayatollahs should obey the orders of
the ruling jurist...Commitment to the ruling jurist is indistinguishable from
commitment to Islam...The ruling jurist’s decisions and authorities...precede
and trump the will and authority of the people in case of conflict between
them.”
Furthermore, Khamenei has built an imposing cult of personality. Iranian media
are required to refer to him not with the constitutional title of “Leader,” but
as “Exalted Supreme Leader.” Speech after speech by senior officials demands
loyalty not just to velayat-e faqih but to Khamenei himself. Those seen as
criticizing him are treated harshly even if they espouse loyalty to the
principle that gives him full power, as happened with former presidential
candidates Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Khamenei has long argued that opposition to the Supreme Leader is the central
element in America’s supposed plans for regime change. In 1997, for instance, he
argued, “Global arrogance [his catchphrase for the United States and its allies]
thought that it could try a more effective way to fight the Islamic Revolution.
After much study, it came to the conclusion that it should target the leader of
the revolution, because it knows that with a powerful leader in Islamic Iran,
all their conspiracies would fail.”
WHAT DOES THE JUNE 24 ORDER DO?
Among other provisions, Executive Order 13876 specifically freezes the U.S.
assets of any person who has “materially assisted, sponsored, or provided
financial, material, or technological support for, or goods and services to”
individuals appointed by the Supreme Leader. These individuals include both
“state officials” and the heads of “any entity located in Iran, or any entity
located outside of Iran that is owned or controlled by one or more entities in
Iran.” In addition, the order authorizes the Treasury secretary, in consultation
with the secretary of state, to impose tough sanctions on foreign financial
institutions that have “knowingly conducted or facilitated any significant
financial transaction for or on behalf of any person” that meets the above
criteria.
For example, strong action can now be taken against Iraqi or Lebanese banks that
open accounts for institutions whose leaders are appointed by Khamenei, such as
the Headquarters for the Restoration of Holy Shrines or a host of ostensibly
charitable foundations. Many of these institutions are technically separate from
the Iranian government and therefore not necessarily subject to previous U.S.
sanctions (specifically, the Obama administration’s February 2012 sanctions
against state agencies). Consider that Washington has never directly sanctioned
the Foundation for the Oppressed and Disabled (Bonyad-e Mostazafan va Janbazan),
a huge organization that has fought hard to keep itself legally distinct from
the government even though it is directly controlled by the Supreme Leader. Such
institutions are often active in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and other countries
where the threat of U.S. sanctions could scare local banks into cutting them
off.
KHAMENEI’S NEXT STEPS
By targeting the Supreme Leader in such a personal way, the June 24 order will
have a broader effect: convincing him that the U.S. objective is to overthrow
his regime. Although this will reinforce a belief he has held for years, the
more important issue is whether the order will change his actions, not his
beliefs.
In a May 29 speech, Khamenei assessed the U.S. strategy as follows: “They exert
pressure to exhaust the other side. When they feel that the other side is
exhausted and might accept their terms, they say, ‘Very well, let us negotiate.’
Negotiations complement their pressures.” He then argued that Iran’s only
possible response is to gain leverage against the United States so that it can
be in a position of strength. In his view, Iran has ample “instruments of
exerting pressure” at its disposal and should use them. He did not spell out
which instruments he meant, but he was presumably referring to the projects Iran
has been so busy with lately: reactivating its nuclear program and threatening
Gulf oil supplies. Whatever the case, Tehran has indeed gained leverage. Whereas
two months ago the narrative centered on Washington’s unexpected success at
imposing real pain on Iran’s economy, today’s focus is on how dangerous and
volatile the region has become, with many world leaders now pushing for
compromise.
Khamenei’s interest in gaining leverage could actually be good news if it means
he is willing to consider new talks. The problem is that he has long been
suspicions of negotiations and compromises, often describing them as a slippery
slope (e.g., see his bitter resistance to compromise after Iran’s mass protests
of 2009, or his exhortations to Hezbollah and the Palestinians about sticking
with “resistance” against Israel instead of negotiating). Certainly his recent
rhetoric shows no sign of interest in talking with the United States. During his
televised remarks after meeting with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe on June
13, Khamenei insultingly declared, “We have no doubt in your goodwill and
seriousness, but regarding what you said the U.S. president told you, I don’t
consider Trump as a person worthy of exchanging messages with...I have no
response for him and will not answer him.” And in a June 26 speech, he stated,
“Negotiations are their way of deceiving you so as to get what they want. You
hold the gun and the other side doesn’t dare approach you; so they say drop your
gun so that I can harm you. This is what they mean by negotiations...If you
surrender to them, you’re done for! And if you don’t accept [surrender], they
will keep fussing about human rights excuses.”
The new executive order will likely heighten such rhetoric, but the reality is
that if Khamenei accepts negotiations, he will do so not because he wants them,
but because he believes they are necessary to preserve his rule—even if he rails
against them the whole time. On May 14 he declared that “negotiation is poison,”
reminiscent of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1988 statement that ending the war with Iraq
was “more deadly than drinking hemlock.” The June 24 order takes Washington
another step down the path of pressing Khamenei to drink the “poison” and allow
new talks. And drink it he may—as his grudging tolerance of the 2015 nuclear
deal showed, he can be pushed into doing things he deeply opposes if he believes
they are essential to preserving the system.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at
The Washington Institute. Mehdi Khalaji is the Institute’s Libitzky Family
Fellow.