LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 29/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The end of enemies of the cross is destruction; their god is the belly; and their glory is in their shame; their minds are set on earthly things
Letter to the Philippians 03/13-21:”Beloved, I do not consider that I have made it my own; but this one thing I do: forgetting what lies behind and straining forward to what lies ahead, I press on towards the goal for the prize of the heavenly call of God in Christ Jesus. Let those of us then who are mature be of the same mind; and if you think differently about anything, this too God will reveal to you. Only let us hold fast to what we have attained. Brothers and sisters, join in imitating me, and observe those who live according to the example you have in us. For many live as enemies of the cross of Christ; I have often told you of them, and now I tell you even with tears. Their end is destruction; their god is the belly; and their glory is in their shame; their minds are set on earthly things. But our citizenship is in heaven, and it is from there that we are expecting a Saviour, the Lord Jesus Christ. He will transform the body of our humiliation so that it may be conformed to the body of his glory, by the power that also enables him to make all things subject to himself.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war fears in Israel
Aoun meets Del Col, says Lebanon will request UNIFIL's mandate renewal without modification
Aoun talks economic situation with delegation of British financial institutions
Aoun signs decrees promoting military officers
Army commander meets Gharib, Syrian ambassador
Fransabank reaps first rank in 'BDL Banks Basketball League 2019' for fourth year in a row
Two New Lebanese Judges Referred to Disciplinary Board
Sources: Saving Lebanon’s Presidential Settlement Requires Nationwide Dialogue
Report: Moody’s ‘Analytical’ Report Didn’t Classify Lebanon
Report: US-Mediated Border Talks ‘Did Not Fail,’ Satterfield in Beirut Tuesday
STL Head of Defense Office Concludes a Working Visit to Lebanon
Shamsi Says UAE Keen on Stability of Lebanon, Honors Press Syndicate
Report: Qatar ‘Invests’ in Lebanese Debt
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel Pledges to Resist in the Era of Surrender, Remain Upright Among Crooks

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 28-29/2019
Iran: Not Enough Progress at Vienna Talks to Stop Our Process
Iran, Nuclear Deal Partners to Meet as Accord under Threat
Trade, climate change threaten G20 accord
G20 Leaders Facing Calls to Protect Growth, Open Trade
Protesters Storm Bahraini Embassy in Iraqi Capital Baghdad
Israeli Diplomat: Trump’s Era is a Historic Opportunity We Must Exploit
Israel: Barak Returns to Politics as Survey Shows Netanyahu Defeat
Sources: Syria Envoy Makes ‘Partial Breakthrough’ in Constitutional Committee
HRW: Syria Regime Co-opting Aid to Entrench Repressive Policies
Palestinian-Israeli Meeting Fails to Resolve Tax Funds Crisis
Yemeni VP: Hadi Said to Deal Positively with Lollesgaard
UN: Average of Nearly 1 Migrant Child Death Daily Since 2014
Saudi Crown Prince Meets World Leaders at G20 Summit
Armed Movements Negotiate With Parties to the Conflict in Sudan's Crisis
Libyan National Army Launches Counteroffensive to Recapture Gharyan
No 'Power Vacuum' in Tunisia despite President's Illness, Says Advisor

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war fears in Israel/DEBKAfile/June 28/2019
Why Iran’s Aggression Won’t Succeed/James Phillips/Michael Johns Jr./ The Daily Signal/June 28/2019
Analysis/Why Trump May End Up Calling Rohani ‘Dear Friend’ After All
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/2019
Inside Intelligence: Israel-Egypt Coperation Key To Beating Back ISIS In Sinai/Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
Are Military Options Available For Trump To End Iranian Nuclear Threat?/Eric R.Mandel/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
What Is Trump Up to in Iran?/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg View/June 28/2019
The 'Cat-And-Mouse' World of the Ayatollah/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June 28/2019
UN Global Compact: What Happens Next?/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 28, 2019
Economics a greater threat to Erdogan than politics/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/June 28, 2019
Before Israel is dragged into a U.S.-Iran war/Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/June 29/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war fears in Israel
دموقع دبيكا فيل الإسرائيلي: فشل الهجوم الكتروني السيبري الأميركي على اجهزة التحكم بصواريخ كتائب حزب الله العراقي المنصوبة في لبنان يثير الخوف من الحرب في إسرائيل
DEBKAfile/June 28/2019
المنسقية: التقرير في أسفل الذي نشره اليوم موقع دبيكا فايل الإسرائيلي يتحدث عن هجموم الأكتروني سيبيري نفذته وحدة أميركية متخصصة في هذا المجال بتاريخ 23 من الشهر الجاري على أجهزة تحكم ومنصات لإطلاق الصواريخ تابعة لكتائب حزب الله العراقية وهي منصوبة في لبنان وتتبع مباشرة للجنرال الإيراني قاسم سليمان. التقرير يفيد بأن نتيجة الهجوم لم تكن ناجحة وبأن هذا الأمر أثار مخاوف في إسرائيل من عواقب أي حرب قادمة تشنها الأذرع الإيرانية على إسرائيل من لبنان.
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The US Cyber Command on Sunday, June 23, conducted a cyberattack on the Lebanon-based logistical command centers of the Iraqi Shiite Kata’ib Hezbollah militia, one of Tehran’s key proxies. Not much is known about this first US strike of this kind in Lebanon on a militia allied with the local Hizballah. Deferring directly to Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Kata’ib’s troops fight for Iran in Iraq and Syria.
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that this Iraqi Shiite militia has for the past two years been busy establishing a command and control center in Lebanon, for attachment to Hizballah’s general staff. Both have readied themselves for the intake of combat forces from Iraq and Syria in a Hizballah war against Israel. The Iraqi militia has been assigned sectors and set up positions along the Lebanese Israeli border.
According to some Middle East intelligence sources, the US cyberattack specifically targeted the communications networks that link Kata’ib Hezballah’s rocket commands to its launchers. This was a test to find out whether a cyberattack could disable Hizballah rocket attacks on Israel.
No word on the attack has come from Iraqi militia or its host and ally Hizballah. However, some Middle East military sources claim that the American operation failed to achieve its objective,which was to incapacitate the militia’s command and communications rocket system.
Since the US has wrapped the operation in total security, it is hard to ascertain whether it was a total failure or managed to disable parts of the targeted system.
Even partial success has set alarm bells ringing in Israel. The US cyber warriors went into action straight after the IDF staged a comprehensive war game against Hizballah.
The drill practiced IDF special forces taking the war over to enemy oil after a large-scale Hizballah attack and takeover of Israeli territory, that was carried out in reprisal for US sanctions against Iran.
The US Cyber Command hoped to set the pattern for aiding Israel by crippling the Iranian proxies’ ability to subject Israel to a massive rocket barrage.
If the US operation against the Iraqi militia missed its mark, it would indicate that Iran and Hizballah have acquired superior systems for countering hostile cyberattack.

Aoun meets Del Col, says Lebanon will request UNIFIL's mandate renewal without modification
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, on Friday welcomed at Baabda palace UNIFIL Commander, General Stefano Del Col.
Prseident Aoun informed General Del Col that Lebanon will officially request the United Nations to extend the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) without any modification. President Aoun stressed that it is in the interest of all parties to maintain security and stability on the southern border.
Aoun noted that the existing cooperation between the Lebanese army and UNIFIL forces has consecrated security and stability on the southern border, stressing that it is in everyone's interest to maintain this stability, especially amidst the the turbulant atmosphere of the regional situation.
General Del Col discussed with President Aoun the situation in the south of the country and ongoing contacts for the demarcation of borders and the role of the United Nations in this regard. Del Col hailed the role played by the Lebanese army alongside UNIFIL in the implementation of resolution 1701 and the ongoing preparations for the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate. On the other hand, Aoun met with a delegation of the Morgan Stanley Bank, headed by Ralph Al-Raheb, accompanied by a number of "Eurobond" investors, who expressed interest in the economic and financial situation in Lebanon.
The delegation inquired about the measures and steps taken by the Lebanese government to activate the plan of economic recovery and reforms after the endorsement of the draft state budget 2019.

Aoun talks economic situation with delegation of British financial institutions

NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Friday received at Baabda Palace a delegation of British financial and investment institutions and the American Morgan Stanley Bank. Discussions reportedly touched on the current economic situation in the country.

Aoun signs decrees promoting military officers

NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Friday has signed the officers' promotion decrees of the army, Internal Security Forces (ISF), General Security and State Security. The decrees, dated June 22, 2019, bear the following numbers: 5080, 5081, 5082, 5083, 5804, 5085 and 5086.

Army commander meets Gharib, Syrian ambassador

Fri 28 Jun 2019
NNA - Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday received at his Yarzeh office, Minister of State for Displaced Affairs Saleh Al-Gharib. Maj. Gen. Aoun also met with Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon, Abdel Karim Ali, with talks reportedly touching on various affairs.

Fransabank reaps first rank in 'BDL Banks Basketball League 2019' for fourth year in a row
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
For the Fourth year in a row, Fransabank won in "BDL Banks Basketball League" held by Sports Mania, and under the supervision of the Lebanese Basketball Federation after winning the final game against BLOM BANK(74 - 57) at the stadium of Michel El Murr Bauchrieh.
The tournament was held under the patronage of the Governor of the Central Bank Riad Salameh, and attended by Head of Human Resources Department Rania Jamal, Head of Branch Network Division Antoine Zarifeh, Head of Consumer Banking & Alternative Channels Department Elie Semaan, and a group of Fransabank's employees.
Fransabank team was crowned with the following titles:
" Best Leadership Award received by Afif Nohra
" Best Coach Award received by Rizkallah Zaloum
" Best 3 points shooter Award received by Rabih Hachoum
" MVP (Most Valuable Player) of the Tournament Award received by Joe Mansour
Fransabank won the BDL Banks Basketball League in 2016 against Credit Libanais Bank (78-60), in 2017 against BLOM Bank (76-65) and in 2018 against Credit Libanais (69-61)
At the end of the game, cups and medals were distributed to the winners.
Celebrating their championship, the team met Chairmen Messrs. Adnan and Adel Kassar at the Bank's Headquarters in Hamra and presented the trophy to them. In view of Fransabank's vision and mission, Chairmen Kassar expressed their pride in the Bank's family that demonstrates a strong commitment to team bonding ethics, promoting a sense of belonging - one of the Bank's core values. It is worth noting that Fransabank basketball team - which played in Dubai in 2017 and then in Serbia in 2018 - will be participating in an international competition that will take place in Netherland by the end of 2019, organized by Sports Mania.

Two New Lebanese Judges Referred to Disciplinary Board
Beirut - Youssef Diabsharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The Judicial Inspection Commission in Lebanon referred on Thursday two new judges to the Disciplinary Board following investigations in line with measures to fight corruption in the judicial body. Justice Minister Albert Serhan recommended on Thursday that the two judges be suspended from work until a decision is made on their status. Until now, a total of 7 judges have been referred by Serhan to the Disciplinary Board upon the recommendation of the Judicial Inspection Commission. Last April, Serhan had also referred three judges and several court employees to the Disciplinary Board as part of reform efforts.
Informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that one of the two judges referred to the Disciplinary Board on Thursday holds a sensitive post in Beirut, while the other works at the Justice Palace in Zahleh, in the Beqaa.  The sources said that as a result of the follow-up investigations conducted by the Judicial Inspection Commission, the Commission issued a decision for the referral of two judges to the Disciplinary Board of Judges. Investigations were launched two months ago after reports showed that the two judges were using their posts to influence the course of judicial files. A high-ranking judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat that this procedure does not negatively affect the performance and the reputation of the judicial body. “Prosecutions against some judges come as part of the self-purification and it affects a small number of judges while the majority of the judicial body operate in total transparency, objectivity and honesty,” the source said, refusing to speak about a “corrupted judiciary.” The sources said that a decision is about to be issued concerning investigations conducted with the five judges, who were previously referred to the Disciplinary Board.

Sources: Saving Lebanon’s Presidential Settlement Requires Nationwide Dialogue
Beirut - Mohammed Shukeir/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The political settlement that led to the election of General Michel Aoun as president is in urgent need of a lever to save it from collapsing, according to well-informed ministerial sources. The sources said only a nationwide dialogue launched by Aoun and involving key parties in the government could restore the political equation. The ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the settlement forged by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Aoun ended the presidential vacuum and paved the way for the revival of constitutional institutions. “Today, there is an urgent need for a presidential initiative to launch an open dialogue, as the only means to resolve disputes and address concerns threatening political stability,” the sources underlined. “Neither economic stability nor administrative or financial reform could be achieved without providing a political safety net for the country to recover from its economic and social crises,” they added.
The sources also said that the election of Aoun as president came after his understanding with Hariri on a set of issues that were supposed to move the country to a new political stage and end the disruptions that have been behind the extension of the presidential vacuum. That in addition to his agreement with the Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, known as the Maarab Declaration. “But this Declaration is now shaking because of the political coup led by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who disregarded the broad lines contained in it, out of his intention to present himself as the most powerful representative of Christians on the one hand; and his attempts to monopolize the Christian quota in State appointments on the other,” the sources explained. The ministerial sources said that the protection of the settlement “depends first and foremost on Aoun, who has to intervene to curb Bassil’s attempts to benefit from his influence within State institutions and to monopolize the Christian street.”“It is not in the interest of Aoun to weaken Hariri, because the imbalance will automatically affect the settlement, which was not properly implemented due to… the insistence of the foreign minister to act as the final commander,” they emphasized.

Report: Moody’s ‘Analytical’ Report Didn’t Classify Lebanon
Naharnet/June 28.2019
After Moody’s Investor Service report that Lebanon risks debt rescheduling despite budget, it has been noted that the report was rather “analytical” and did not classify the country, al-Joumhouria daily said on Friday. Financial sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told the daily: “Moody's report is rather analytical and did not credit rate Lebanon. Rating will take place over the next two months by Moody's and Fitch Ratings during a planned visit to Lebanon to assess the economic and financial situation and publish the credit opinion on the 2018 results, and on the draft budget for 2019.
“Standard & Poor's (Financial services company) will review the rating in August,” they said. According to Moody's, the ratio of public debt to Lebanon's GDP is the highest in comparison with the countries that have been classified. The interest rate of total revenues is 46.9%, the highest percentage of all countries, despite the austerity measure taken by the government to control the state of public finances in the draft budget. Moody's said the slowing capital inflows and weak deposit growth, increases the risk of a government response that will include a debt rescheduling or another liability management exercise that may constitute a default. In the context, a banking expert told the daily that the financial and economic situation of Lebanon “is critical.” However, he stressed that “restructuring public debt or default is unlikely despite all the data.” “The use of these terms is not accurate at this stage,” he said. "The majority of foreign debt to Lebanon is borne by Lebanese banks and some parties, as opposed to 15% of non-Lebanese parties,” he added.Moody's is likely to raise Lebanon's credit rating if the government is likely to take debt management measures in the next few years, according to the newspaper.

Report: US-Mediated Border Talks ‘Did Not Fail,’ Satterfield in Beirut Tuesday
Naharnet/June 28.2019
U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield is expected in Beirut on Tuesday to resume talks on the demarcation of maritime and land border between Lebanon and Israel, thwarting doubts the talks have faltered, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Satterfield is scheduled to meet with Speaker Nabih Berri to convey the “Isreali response on the suggestions made by Lebanon in that regard,” said the daily. In light of the Lebanese proposals, it is decided that negotiations between the two sides will be scheduled at the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, under the auspices of the United Nations, and in the presence of a representative of the American mediator, said the daily. Al-Joumhouria said that Satterfield’s return “brings to a halt the doubts raised recently about the success of Satterfield's mission, especially after he postponed a scheduled visit to Beirut coming from Israel two weeks ago.”Israel's energy minister earlier said his country had agreed to enter US-mediated talks with Lebanon on maritime borders that would have an impact on offshore oil and gas exploration. Last year, Lebanon signed its first contract to drill for oil and gas in its waters, including for a block disputed by its southern neighbour Israel, with which it has fought several wars. A consortium composed of energy giants Total, Eni and Novatek was awarded two of Lebanon's 10 exploration blocks last year. It is set to start drilling in block 4 in December, and later in the disputed block 9. Last year, Total said it was aware of the border dispute in less than eight percent of block 9 and said it would drill away from that area. In April, Lebanon invited international consortia to bid for five more blocks, which include two also adjacent to Israel's waters. Israel also produces natural gas from reserves off its coast in the Mediterranean. Israel and Lebanon are still technically at war, although the last Israeli troops withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000 after two decades of occupation.

STL Head of Defense Office Concludes a Working Visit to Lebanon

Naharnet/June 28.2019
The Head of Defense Office of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), Dorothée Le Fraper du Hellen, concluded yesterday an official visit to Lebanon, the STL media office said in a press release. She met amongst others the Minister of Justice, Albert Serhan, the Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Salim Jreissati, the Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Raya el-Hasan, and the Minister of Telecommunications, Mohammed Choucair. Le Fraper du Hellen also had talks with members of the diplomatic community based in Beirut. During the visit, Le Fraper du Hellen discussed with her interlocutors the role of the Defense at the Tribunal in the Ayyash et al. case (STL 11-01). As part of this visit, the Defense Office, with the support of the Beirut and Tripoli Bar Associations, organised a conference at the Maison de l’Avocat in Beirut and a practical workshop for lawyers from those Bar Associations.
The conference, on the topic of “Digital and Telecommunications Evidence in National and International Criminal Trials”, was held on 26 June. The keynote speech was given by Ibrahim Najjar, Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Law and Political Science at Saint Joseph University, a lawyer and former Minister of Justice. The practical workshop on 27 June, which was more specifically intended for lawyers, focused on the subject of “The Work of the Defense in International Criminal Trials”. It was facilitated by two members of the Defense Office and two Defense Counsel practicing at the STL.
The visit by the Head of Defense Office also provided an opportunity to present the Arabic version of the “Practitioner’s Handbook on Defense Investigations in International Criminal Trials”.On behalf of the Defense Office, du Hellen would like to thank all those who contributed to the success of this visit.

Shamsi Says UAE Keen on Stability of Lebanon, Honors Press Syndicate

Naharnet/June 28.2019
The Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to Lebanon, Hamad Al-Shamsi, underlined mutual interests between Lebanon and the UAE, noting firm political relations between the two countries, the National News Agency said on Friday. “The UAE is a loving country for Lebanon and history attests to this relationship,” said Shamsi, in remarks during a gathering honoring the new council of the Association of Lebanese Press Editors at his home in Yarzeh. Underlining the mutual interest between the two “brotherly” countries, he said: “We have been supporting the military and security services for years, and in terms of our relationship with editors, journalists and media professionals, communication has been going on since my appointment," the ambassador said. "We try to convey the true picture of the UAE, and try to hear and read in the Lebanese press what contributes to the stability of countries. This is due to your wisdom and your knowledge in the light of regional and international changes,” he added. "We only intervene in Lebanon through positive messages in support of the stability of the country," Shamsi added.

Report: Qatar ‘Invests’ in Lebanese Debt

Naharnet/June 28.2019
Qatar has reportedly bought Lebanese treasury bonds in a planned investment in Lebanese debt, Bloomberg News Agency said. Quoting a Qatari government official who declined to be named because the information is not public, he said: “Qatar is committed to its pledge towards Lebanon and has bought treasury bonds in a planned $500 million investment in Lebanese debt.”The Qatari official said his country intends to make the rest of the investment aid it had pledged to Lebanon in January, without giving more details on the time-line, according to the agency.

Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel Pledges to Resist in the Era of Surrender, Remain Upright Among Crooks
Kataeb.org/June 27/2019
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Thursday blasted all the empty talks, deceptive slogans, and illusive heroism that have been prevailing recently over the political landscape, warning that Lebanon is being "systematically destroyed" under sectarian slogans. “We say to those who pretend to be loyal to the nation that the Kataeb has left you all the slogans, because whenever real actions are needed you won't find anyone present other than our party,” Gemayel said during a swearing-in ceremony held by the Kataeb's Metn sector for new party members. “They got all the slogans and outbidding, while we are the ones who make the actions and sacrifices," Gemayel stressed. "Unfortunately, there are people who are believing the deceptive slogans that politicians are mastering nowadays,” he added. Gemayel said that the Christian community is being exploited to justify failures and concessions, adding that some are proclaiming triump which is far from being real. “It is not an act of strength to reach power thanks to non-state arms, and to garner gains thanks to deals and settlements. It's not an act of strength to achieve triumphs at the expense of one's constants and principles. It's not an act of strength to fulfill one's ambitions to the detriment of the citizens' welfare as well as the nation's independence and sovereignty,” Gemayel stated. “They are destroying the state under the pretext of defending the Christians' rights; the state that is the sole guarantor of the Christians who made tremendous sacrifices to build and protect." “The Christians' rights are not safeguarded by relinquishing the state-building project, but by establishing a state of law where Muslims and Christians are equal in a free, sovereign and independent state where the law is respected,” he said. “Christians are not defended by adopting a dictatorial approach similar to that of Bachar Assad, but rather by applying ethics and morals because a true Christian only lives by them,” he emphasized.
Gemayel outlined the deception that the ruling authority is constantly adopting, deeming everything that is being witnessed as fake. “All their conflicts are deceptive; they agree one day and disagree the other, without us knowing the reason behind their convergences and divergences,” he pointed out.
“What is happening in the Parliament is a farce. The same political forces that approved the budget in the government are now objecting to it in the Parliament,” the Kataeb leader condemned. Gemayel stressed that the Kataeb is not a conventional party as it has been nurtured at the hands of its founder who set the guidelines for good citizenship. "An upright citizen has one duty, which is to challenge injustice,” he noted. “It is our duty to stand against those trying to take over the country, its sovereignty and its people,” he affirmed. “It is our duty to oppose those trying to seize the people’s money and to thwart any project that might harm the health of the citizens."“It is our duty to confront those building castles with the money of honorable people,” he stated. “It is our duty to defend Lebanon and stand against those trying to occupy it; our cause consists in lifting oppression off the people and that won’t stop until we build the country that we dream of,” he highlighted. “The Kataeb party promises the Lebanese to keep on believing in this country and shielding it from the dishonest,” he assured. Gemayel pledged to keep on resisting in the era of surrender and to remain upright among the crooks. “We pledge that the Kataeb will never become a typical political party whose only aim is to reach power at the expense of values." “Our goal is to build a country that rises up to the aspirations and ambitions of its youth,” he said. “Comrades, you are joining a long path of struggle and sacrifices for the sake of Lebanon. You are joining a party that does not back down, yield or compromise its values; a party that resists and doesn't fear anything, a party that is loyal to Lebanon regardless of the hardships,” Gemayel stressed in his address to the sworn-in Kataeb members.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 28-29/2019
Iran: Not Enough Progress at Vienna Talks to Stop Our Process
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Iran said on Friday that progress was made at talks in Vienna to save its nuclear accord with world powers, however, it was probably not enough to convince Tehran to change its decision to go over the deal’s core atomic restrictions one by one, Iran’s envoy to the talks said. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was speaking after almost four hours of talks with senior diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. “It was a step forward, but it is still not enough and not meeting Iran’s expectations,” Araqchi told reporters. “I don’t think the progress made today will be enough to stop our process but the decision will made in Tehran.”He said the Europeans had told the meeting that the Instex trade mechanism had been made operational, with the first transactions already processed, but that this was still insufficient because European countries were not buying Iranian oil, the key demand for it to stay in the 2015 nuclear deal. “For Instex to be useful for Iran, Europeans need to buy oil or consider credit lines for this mechanism otherwise Instex is not like they or us expect,” he said. Instex had now been widened to include more European countries beyond France, Britain and Germany, known as the E3, Araqchi said. A European diplomat confirmed that the mechanism was now operational but the E3 have yet to make an official announcement. In a joint statement earlier on Friday, Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden, said they were working with the E3 to develop trade mechanisms. Araqchi said all the parties in Vienna had agreed to hold a ministerial meeting “very soon”. President Donald Trump last year pulled the United States out of the multinational deal under which sanctions on Iran were lifted in return for curbs on its nuclear program, verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington has since re-imposed tough sanctions on Iran, aiming to cut Tehran’s oil sales to zero to force it to negotiate a broader deal that would also cover its ballistic missile capabilities and regional influence.

Iran, Nuclear Deal Partners to Meet as Accord under Threat
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Senior officials from Iran and the remaining signatories to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers are gathering Friday as tensions in the Persian Gulf simmer and Tehran is poised to surpass a uranium stockpile threshold, posing a threat to the accord. At the heart of the meeting in Vienna is Iran's desire for European countries to deliver on promises of financial relief from U.S. sanctions. Iran is insisting that it wants to save the agreement and has urged the Europeans to start buying Iranian oil or give Iran a credit line to keep the accord alive.The regular quarterly meeting of the accord's so-called joint commission, which brings together senior officials from Iran, France, Germany, Britain, Russia, China and the European Union, is meant to discuss implementation of the deal. The 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. The United States withdrew from the accord last year and has imposed new sanctions on Iran to cripple its economy, in hopes of forcing Tehran into negotiating a wider-ranging deal. President Donald Trump said on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Japan that "there's no rush" to ease the tensions with Iran.
"There's absolutely no time pressure," he added. "I think that in the end, hopefully, it's going to work out. If it does, great. And if doesn't, you'll be hearing about it." Iran recently quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium. It previously said it would surpass a 300-kilogram stockpile limit set by the accord by Thursday, but an Iranian official said that it was 2.8 kilograms below that limit Wednesday and there would be no new assessment until "after the weekend." It is currently a holiday weekend in Iran.
European countries are pressing for Iran to comply in full with the accord, though they have not specified what the consequences would be of failing to do so. But Iranian officials maintain that even if it surpasses the limit, it would not be breaching the deal, and say such a move could be reversed quickly.The Europeans also face a July 7 deadline set by Tehran to offer long-promised relief from U.S. sanctions, or Iran says it will also begin enriching its uranium closer to weapons-grade levels.
On Thursday, Iranian state television reported that Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sent a letter urging European signatories to the accord to implement their commitments, saying Iran's next steps depend on that. Britain, France and Germany are finalizing a complicated barter-type system known as INSTEX to maintain trade with Iran and avoid U.S. sanctions, as part of efforts to keep the nuclear deal afloat. It would help ensure trade between Iran and Europe by allowing buyers and sellers to exchange money without relying on the usual cross-border financial transactions. Tensions have been rising in the Middle East. Citing unspecified Iranian threats, the U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier to the region and deployed additional troops alongside the tens of thousands already there. The U.S. has been worried about international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since tankers were damaged in May and June in what Washington has blamed on limpet mines from Iran, although Tehran denies any involvement. Last week, Iran shot down a U.S. Navy surveillance drone, saying it violated its territory; Washington said it was in international airspace. On Thursday, U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook met with top European diplomats in Paris. He told The Associated Press that he wants them to get tougher on Iran, instead of clinging to the nuclear deal. War with Iran is "not necessary," Hook said.
"We are not looking for any conflict in the region," he said. But if the U.S. is attacked, "we will respond with military force." The U.S. is trying to drum up support for an international naval force in the Persian Gulf, notably to protect shipping. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Trump Friday on the sidelines of the G-20 summit. She said they discussed Iran "and the question of how we can get into a negotiating process, which I advocated very strongly." Chinese President Xi Jinping, also attending the summit, said that the Gulf region stands "at a crossroads of war and peace," news agency Xinhua and state broadcaster CCTV reported. "China always stands on the side of peace and opposes war," Xi said, calling on all sides to remain calm, exercise restraint and promote dialogue. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world can't afford a conflict. He said it was "essential to de-escalate the situation" and avoid confrontation.

Trade, climate change threaten G20 accord
Arab News/June 28, 2019
OSAKA: The opening day of the 2019 G20 summit of world leaders closed without the turbulence many had predicted, but there was still concern that tensions over trade and climate change could derail the newfound cordiality on day two. US President Donald Trump — around whom many of the forecasts of antagonism had swirled — seemed in lighthearted mood, and was even able to joke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about alleged Russian meddling in US elections. There was an outbreak of cordiality, too, between Trump and the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, with the latter unveiling a list of Japanese investments in the US, as well as a jovial “family photograph” gathering in which Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman figured prominently.The crown prince had a prominent position alongside Trump at the first discussion session between the leaders, focusing on data technology. Saudi Arabia joined other G20 countries in signing the “Osaka declaration” calling for “effective use” of data to promote economic growth. A bilateral meeting is expected today between the crown prince and the US leader to discuss the issue of Iran.
The Saudi leader is due to have private meetings with several other G20 leaders at the event, people close to the Saudi delegation said. Saudi Arabia is also preparing to take over the G20 baton from Japan after being awarded the right to stage the summit in Riyadh next year.
In a briefing after the first day of the summit, the international spokesman for Japan’s G20 presidency, Takeshi Osuga, said that progress had been made in closed-door sessions on trade. Leaders had agreed that trade disputes presented a risk to the global economy and recognized the need to reform the dispute-settlement mechanisms of the World Trade Organization. He said there had been “no notable dissent” on climate change. “The sherpas (advisers to the leaders) are working hard at a good outcome document and we’ll see it tomorrow,” Osuga added, referring to the end-of-summit communique that traditionally closes the G20 and is intended to show the leaders’ unity.
But observers cautioned against reading too much into the first day’s gathering of the most powerful leaders in the world when many of the potentially troublesome meetings are due to take place on Saturday, including the long-awaited face-to-face between Trump and President Xi Jinping of China on the thorny subject of trade hostilities between the two biggest economies. There were hints of tensions below the surface in early comments by Xi and EU leaders. The Chinese president warned of the dangers of protectionism in world trade — one of Trump’s most often used tactics — which he said was endangering the global commercial system. “All this is destroying the global trade order. This also affects the common interests of our countries, and overshadows peace and stability worldwide,” he said. Chinese concern was echoed by the Japanese leader, who had been the target of barbed tweets by Trump over security. “I harbor great concern about the current situation on global trade.The world is watching the direction at which we are going. Now is the time we communicate a strong message for the maintenance and strengthening of a free, fair and non-discriminatory trading system,” Abe said.
European leaders also seemed at odds with Trump on other issues. Emmanuel Macron, president of France, indicated that he will refuse to sign the joint communique if it fails to match his ambitions on reducing climate change. “If we do not talk about the Paris accord and if, in order to reach agreement among the 20 in the room, we are not able to defend climate ambitions, it will be without France,” he said before arriving in Osaka. However, these tensions did not figure highly on the opening day of the 2019 summit. A one-to-one televised discussion between Putin and Trump even raised some amusement when the US leader, answering a question about alleged Russian involvement in the 2016 poll, wagged a finger at the Russian and told him: “Don’t meddle in elections.”

G20 Leaders Facing Calls to Protect Growth, Open Trade

Associated Press/Naharnet/June 28.2019
World leaders attending a Group of 20 summit in Japan that began Friday are clashing over the values that have served for decades as the foundation of their cooperation as they face calls to fend off threats to economic growth. "A free and open economy is the basis for peace and prosperity," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told his counterparts in opening the two-day G-20 meeting that comes as leaders grapple with profound tensions over trade, globalization and the collapsing nuclear deal with Iran. While groups like the G-20 endeavor to forge consensus on broad policy approaches and geopolitical issues, the rifts between them run both shallow and deep. Defying Chinese warnings not to bring up the issue of recent protests in Hong Kong, Abe cautioned Chinese President Xi Jinping over Beijing's human rights record. In a meeting late Thursday, Abe told Xi it is important for "a free and open Hong Kong to prosper under 'one country, two systems' policy," Japanese officials said, referring to the arrangement for the former British colony's autonomy when China took control in 1997. They said Abe reminded Xi of the importance of guaranteeing freedom, human rights, the "rule of law" and other universal values in raising concern over proposed Hong Kong legislation that would allow some criminal suspects to be extradited for trial in mainland China. The bill, now shelved, drew hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong residents into the streets in protests. Xi is not the only leader facing a pushback from his Western counterparts.
European Union Council President Donald Tusk blasted Russian President Vladimir Putin for saying in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper that liberalism was "obsolete" and conflicts with the "overwhelming majority" in many countries. "We are here as Europeans also to firmly and unequivocally defend and promote liberal democracy," Tusk told reporters. "What I find really obsolete are: authoritarianism, personality cults, the rule of oligarchs. Even if sometimes they may seem effective." Tusk told reporters that such comments suggest a belief that "freedoms are obsolete, that the rule of law is obsolete and that human rights are obsolete."
Putin praised U.S. President Donald Trump for his efforts to try to stop the flow of migrants and drugs from Mexico and said that liberalism "presupposes that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected."
Trump has at times found himself at odds with other leaders in such international events, particularly on issues such as Iran, climate change and trade. A planned meeting between Trump and the Chinese president on Saturday as the G-20 meetings conclude has raised hopes for a detente in the tariffs war between the world's two largest economies.
The two sides have levied billions of dollars' worth of tariffs on each other's imports in a festering dispute over technology and the chronic Chinese trade surplus. In a meeting with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Trump said he had not promised to hold back on imposing new tariffs on China.
"I think it'll be productive," Trump said of his meeting with Xi. "We'll see what happens tomorrow. It'll be a very exciting day I'm sure," he said. "It's going to come out hopefully well for both countries."U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross accompanied Trump to Osaka, suggesting potential for some movement after 11 rounds of talks stalled in May. But while prospects for detente in the trade war are in the spotlight, many participating prefer a broader approach to tackling global crises.
"I am deeply concerned over the current global economic situation. The world is paying attention to the direction we, the G-20 leaders, are moving toward," Abe said. "We need to send strong message, which is to support and strengthen a free, fair and indiscriminatory trade system."
A breakthrough is not assured. On Thursday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing reiterated that China is determined to defend itself against further U.S. moves to penalize it over trade friction. China often has sought to gain support for defending global trade agreements against Trump's "America First" stance in gatherings like the G-20.
Abe has sought to make the Osaka summit a landmark for progress on environmental issues, including climate change, on cooperation in developing new rules for the "digital economy," such as devising fair ways to tax companies like Google and Facebook, and on strengthening precautions against abuse of technologies such as cyber-currencies to fund terrorism and other types of internet-related crimes.g tensions between Iran and the U.S., U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world can't afford the conflict and it was "essential to deescalate the situation" and avoid confrontation. Iran is soon poised to surpass a key uranium stockpile threshold, threatening the nuclear accord it reached with world powers in 2015. Iran's moves come after Trump announced in May 2018 that he was pulling the U.S. out of the deal and reimposing economic sanctions on Tehran. In a letter to the leaders in Osaka, Guterres urged them to take action on equitable and stable reforms to strengthen the global financial safety net and increase the global economy's resilience. While there are good plans and vision, what's needed are "accelerated actions, not more deliberations," he said. Fast and equal economic growth should be constructed so that people who live in "the 'rust belts' of the world are not left behind," he said. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, in a meeting on the G-20 sidelines, called for joint efforts to stabilize international trade and oppose protectionism. Putin, whose country faces an array of U.S. and EU sanctions, said at the meeting that "international trade has suffered from protectionism, politically motivated restrictions and barriers." Putin also emphasized the need for BRICS nations to take coordinated action to help block sources of funding for terrorist groups.

Protesters Storm Bahraini Embassy in Iraqi Capital Baghdad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Protesters stormed the Bahraini embassy compound in Baghdad Thursday night, removing the flag from above the building and replacing it with a Palestinian banner in protest against a conference held in the gulf nation to promote peace between Arabs and Israelis. Bahrain's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack saying the kingdom is calling back home its ambassador Salah Ali al-Maliki for discussions. It added that Iraqi authorities have a responsibility to protect the embassy in Baghdad. The attack on the embassy could affect relations between Iraq and nearby gulf nations at a time when they have been improving in recent months since Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi took office. It was believed to have been carried out by supporters of Iran-backed Iraqi militias. The Iraqi government issued a statement expressing "deep regret" over the attack and vowing to "bring all saboteurs to justice." The statement said Iraqi security forces took firm measures to force the protesters out of the embassy. Iraq's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmad al-Sahhaf told The Associated Press that Baghdad condemns the attack on the embassy adding that "Iraqi authorities will go after those who took part of the attack as well as the instigators."
No one was hurt in the standoff that lasted more than an hour and later in the night Iraqi security forces were in control of the area. Iraqi troops were deployed around the compound in the late hours of Thursday.
An Iraqi security official said the protesters forced their way in by breaking through the main gate but stayed in the garden without storming the offices inside the compound. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said security forces opened fire in the air to disperse the protesters and reinforcements were sent to Bagdad's western neighborhood of Mansour where the embassy is.
More than an hour later, the nearly 200 protesters, waving Iraqi and Palestinian flags, dispersed. Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Saad Maan said protection of diplomatic missions is a "red line." He added that 54 people have been detained for taking part in the attack. Iraq's newly named Interior Minister Yasssin al-Yassiri visited the compound around midnight and then held a meeting with the Bahrain ambassador in a safe place outside the embassy. The Bahraini diplomats were evacuated earlier from the compound into the heavily fortified Green Zone that is home to the Iraqi government headquarters, after the mission received threats, the official said. The two-day workshop in Bahrain that ended Wednesday was to promote the Trump administration's $50 billion economic support plan for the Palestinians ahead of a Mideast peace plan, widely known as the Deal of the Century, to be announced later.
Several Arab countries boycotted the Bahrain conference including Lebanon and Iraq as well as the Palestinian authority. Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa was criticized by some Arab and Iranian media outlets for giving an interview to an Israeli TV station in which he said that Palestinians made a mistake by boycotting the workshop. Saudi minister for Gulf affairs Thamer al-Sabhan tweeted that "what is happening now at the Bahraini embassy in Baghdad is very regrettable." Anwar Gargash, the United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs, tweeted that the attack on the embassy is "a major escalation on the legal and political levels." He called on the Iraqi embassy to protect diplomatic missions in Iraq. Iraq is home to Iran-backed militias and the embassy attack comes amid tensions between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. Iraq has close relations with both Washington and Tehran and has been trying to ease tensions between them. The crisis gripping the Middle East stems from President Donald Trump's withdrawal of the United States a year ago from the nuclear deal between Iran and other world powers and then imposing crippling new sanctions on Tehran.

Israeli Diplomat: Trump’s Era is a Historic Opportunity We Must Exploit

Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Thursday with former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who visited Tel Aviv along with her husband to participate in the right-wing Israel Hayom forum. “The entire people of Israel appreciate the extraordinary way that you represented our alliance between America and Israel and the way you defended Israel and the truth in the UN,” Netanyahu told Haley, as reported by local media. She responded by saying that relations between her country and Israel were everlasting. Meanwhile, Michael Oren, an Israeli diplomat and historian, called for better exploiting the era of US President Donald Trump to achieve Israeli gains in several areas, mainly the issue of Iran, the Palestinian cause, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas. “Trump is the best US president in understanding Israel’s needs and place in the Western world,” said Oren, who served as deputy foreign minister in the Netanyahu government until a year ago. “He will remain in power for five and a half years, perhaps only a year and a half, and Israel must better exploit this era of history,” he added. When asked to give details, Oren said: “Hezbollah has a huge stock of missiles, perhaps 130,000, stored inside houses in 200 Lebanese villages. We can only defeat them with a fierce ground war, and we will need huge quantities of ammunition. Do you think that we will get it if the US president was Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? (Two Democratic presidential candidates). If we enter into a war with Hamas, the world will come against us. We must ensure that America stands with us fully.”He continued: “Today, we are confronting Iran together with the United States, and we see how the US position develops with the Palestinians. We must strive to get more gains.”

Israel: Barak Returns to Politics as Survey Shows Netanyahu Defeat
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
A new Israeli survey showed for the very first time a clear possibility that right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be defeated in upcoming general elections, leaving his rival candidate, former general Benny Gantz, with the task of forming a new government. The results coincided with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak announcing his return to politics as the leader of a new party in the upcoming September 17 polls. The survey, published by Channel 13, showed that the Likud and the opposition Blue and White party would garner 32 seats apiece. The Joint List, an alliance of four Arab majority parties that ran together in the 2015 elections, announced last week it would reunite for the vote. The four parties, which ran on two separate slates in April’s elections, currently have 10 seats between them and would have 12.  Shas and United Torah Judaism would each drop from eight seats to six, while the left-wing Meretz would jump from four to six. Overall, the survey said the center-left and Arab parties together would pick up 61 seats, while right-wing factions would get 52. These results were the same as ones reached by secret surveys conducted by Netanyahu’s office in the past weeks, prompting him to seek the cancellation of the polls, but he failed. Barak’s decision to enter the political fray will ignite the political battle as Gantz was coolly running his campaign against Netanyahu. The former PM accused Gantz of running a “sleepy” opposition, saying it should “wake up.”Directly addressing Gantz, he said that Israel was facing the “threat of destruction and you are running a cold battle that people are barely feeling.” Barak convened a press briefing Wednesday afternoon during which he announced that he will establish a new party for the elections. "I have known Netanyahu for more than 50 years. I have seen him in beautiful and painful moments. Netanyahu is at the end of his path, and his closest associates, including his colleagues in the faction and the government, know this. Most of them are gripped by silence and fear. As your former commander, I say to you, Netanyahu: You cannot continue to hold the steering wheel of leadership. Your time as a political leader is over,” he said. "My brothers in arms… I tell you that our rivalry is with Netanyahu and his way,” Barak stated.

Sources: Syria Envoy Makes ‘Partial Breakthrough’ in Constitutional Committee

New York, Geneva, Brussels - Ali Barada and Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
United Nations Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen received, thanks to Russia’s help, the Syrian regime’s approval on a suggestion to form the long-awaited constitutional committee, tasked with drafting the post-war constitution, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Thursday.
The UN envoy considers that such breakthrough should pave the way for a possible deal to end the eight-year war in the country. As previously agreed, the committee would be formed of three groups, each of 50 members: the first representing the regime, the second representing the opposition and the third representing the civil society, said the sources. However, the UN drive to set up this committee has been bogged down in disagreements with Bashar Assad’s regime on the makeup of the body. Damascus had asked to name six of the civil society representatives taking part in the negotiations. However, the informed sources said that after Moscow intervened, the Syrian authorities finally agreed to name only two members of the group. “Such a development constitutes a partial breakthrough,” the sources said, adding that the names should be revealed soon. On Thursday, the United States said it was time to scrap the 17-month effort to form the constitutional committee for Syria and come up with other diplomatic initiatives to bring the country closer to peace. US acting Ambassador Jonathan Cohen told the Security Council that progress toward forming the new body remained "out of reach" and that the committee was unlikely to ever be formed. "The time has come for the council to encourage special envoy Pedersen to try other routes to achieving the political solution," Cohen told the council. Meanwhile, chiefs of global humanitarian organizations warned on Thursday of a “humanitarian nightmare” in Idlib, after launching a worldwide campaign in solidarity with civilians under fire the northwestern province. The 11 chiefs said 3 million civilians, among them 1 million children, are in imminent and mortal danger from the escalating violence in Idlib and surrounding areas. In a direct video address, the humanitarian leaders emphasized that civilians face the constant threat of violence and armed conflict and desperately need protection. They also deplored the devastating impact of the fighting on hospitals, schools and markets. The regime had relaunched earlier this year an offensive in the opposition-held northwest, killing more than 120 people and forcing more than 150,000 to flee.

HRW: Syria Regime Co-opting Aid to Entrench Repressive Policies

Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The Syrian regime is co-opting humanitarian aid and reconstruction assistance and sometimes using it to "entrench repressive policies," said Human Rights Watch on Friday, calling on donors and investors to ensure their contributions are used for the good of the Syrian people. In the 91-page report released in Geneva. HRW said the Syrian regime has developed a policy and legal framework to divert "reconstruction resources to fund its atrocities, punish those perceived as opponents, and benefit those loyal to it." Syria's civil war, now in its ninth year, has killed some 400,000 people, wounded more than a million and displaced half the country's population, including 5 million who fled as refugees, mostly to neighboring countries. Large parts of the country are totally destroyed and the regime estimates reconstruction will cost some $200 billion dollars and last 15 years. Many Syrians rely on aid to survive amid poverty and lack of food and medicine in parts of the country that had a pre-war population of 23 million. While seemingly benign, the Syrian regime’s aid and reconstruction policies “are being used to punish perceived opponents and reward its supporters," said Lama Fakih, acting Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. The Syrian regime’s aid framework “undermines human rights, and donors need to ensure they are not complicit in the government's human rights violations," Fakih said. The report notes one case in which an unnamed UN agency decided to partner with a local group founded by a member of the pro-regime National Defense Forces — which the opposition blames for major atrocities — to implement a project. HRW says despite warnings, the UN agency moved forward only to discover six months later that the local partner never implemented the project, despite receiving money from the UN. It also mentions, without giving names, senior regime officials who own stakes in various businesses and are known to fund "abusive entities," such as the NDF. The report warns investors and donors that there is a risk to becoming involved in these sectors because they might indirectly be working or funding abusive individuals or entities. "As the number of international humanitarian organizations seeking to register and transfer their operations to Damascus increases, the risk of a slippery slope is increasingly significant," the report warned.The report found that in extreme cases, reconstruction projects that rehabilitate infrastructure of "abusive” regime agencies “can facilitate abuses by empowering them to continue forcibly displacing, torturing, and arbitrarily detaining individuals."

Palestinian-Israeli Meeting Fails to Resolve Tax Funds Crisis

Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
A new Palestinian-Israeli meeting has failed to end the Palestinian tax revenue crisis. Palestinian Authority Minister of Civil Affairs and Fatah Central Committee member Hussein al-Sheikh said ongoing talks with Israel about the seizure of Palestinian deducted funds did not make any progress. “I met with the Israeli Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon and Palestinian Minister of Finance Shukri Bshara yesterday(Wednesday) and discussed means to solve the clearance issue,” he tweeted. “We demanded that Israel release the funds,” he said. Their meeting at the Israeli Ministry of Finance headquarters in Jerusalem was attended by Coordinator of Government Activities in the Palestinian territories Maj. Gen. Kamil Abu Rokon. Israeli sources said they only discussed economic matters, explaining that it was one of a series of meetings that brought them together in an attempt to reach a solution to the crisis. Israel wants to reach a settlement in this matter in a way that would prevent the collapse of the PA. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kahlon have earlier discussed emergency plans, should the PA’s financial system collapse over its refusal to accept tax dividends collected by Israel. Israel has tried to transfer large sums of money to the PA, which refuses to accept them without the deducted amounts, leading to a critical financial crisis. Israel collects around $190 million a month in customs duties levied on goods destined for Palestinian markets that transit through Israeli ports, and then it transfers the money to the PA. In February, it decided to deduct around $10 million a month from those revenues, corresponding to the amount it said the PA paid families of prisoners or directly to inmates serving time in Israeli jails. Palestinians responded by saying they would refuse any funds from which unilateral deductions had been made.

Yemeni VP: Hadi Said to Deal Positively with Lollesgaard
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Yemeni Vice President confirmed Thursday that Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi’s directives stipulate joint efforts among the government field team in Hodeidah to ensure the success of head of the Redeployment Coordination Committee’s (RCC) tasks.
Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar explained that these efforts shall ensure fixing any imbalances and implementing the Hodeidah Accord as stipulated in the Stockholm Agreement and in accordance with Yemeni law and relevant UN resolutions. His remarks were made during his meeting on Thursday with Head of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC) and UN mission in support of the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) General Michael Lollesgaard in Riyadh. For his part, UN Special Envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths vowed Wednesday, during his meeting with Ahmar, to implement directives of the UN Secretary-General and abide by the three references to solve the Yemeni crisis. These references are represented by the Gulf Cooperation Council initiative and its executive mechanism, outcomes of the comprehensive national dialogue conference and UN resolution 2216. “I had very productive meetings with Vice President Ali Mohsen. I was encouraged by the openness and flexibility of the government of Yemen and its continued commitment towards achieving peace,” Griffiths said. “I am determined to advance the peace process based on the National Dialogue Outcome, the GCC initiative and relevant security council resolutions and restart soonest possible consultations with the parties,” he added. The Special Envoy reiterated the commitment of the United Nations to continue working with the parties for a comprehensive Yemeni-led peace agreement in Yemen and urged all parties to create a conducive environment to make this a reality. Ahmar stressed the legitimate government’s keenness to achieve peace and its adherence to the full implementation of the Stockholm agreement, especially with regard to the actual withdrawal of Houthi militias from Hodeidah’s city and ports and the completion of the prisoners and detainees’ issue. He expressed Hadi’s appreciation for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s positive response and his emphasis on the UN’s commitment to the three recognized references.

UN: Average of Nearly 1 Migrant Child Death Daily Since 2014

Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The UN migration agency said migrant children have died or gone missing at the rate of at least one per day worldwide over the past five years, with treacherous journeys like those across the Mediterranean or the US-Mexico border continuing to take lives. In its latest “Fatal Journeys” report, the International Organization for Migration has released findings that some 1,600 children — some as young as 6 months old — are among the 32,000 people who have perished in dangerous travels since 2014, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The Mediterranean remains the most fatal crossing, with over 17,900 people dying there; many on the hazardous trip between Libya and Italy. Meanwhile, 40 passengers on a German rescue ship, who were saved off Libya 16 days ago, are still blocked offshore by Italy's refusal to let them disembark. According to AP, two migrants have been evacuated from the ship overnight for medical reasons.

Saudi Crown Prince Meets World Leaders at G20 Summit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, held a series of talks on Friday with several world leaders on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.He held separate meetings with each of the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong and Queen Maxima of the Netherlands. Discussions focused on bilateral ties and cooperation, reported the Saudi Press Agency.

Armed Movements Negotiate With Parties to the Conflict in Sudan's Crisis

Khartoum - Ahmed Youness/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Deputy Head of Sudan's Transitional Military Council Lieutenant General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamidati) and Sudan Liberation Army’s Leader Minni Arko Minnawi are scheduled to hold the first meeting of its kind in the Chadian capital, N'Djamena, according to Sudanese local newspapers. Hamidati announced early this week releasing prisoners of the armed movements and forming a committee, led by him, to negotiate with the armed rebel movements. Meanwhile, the Darfur-based Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Jibril Ibrahim, and the Sudan Liberation Movement welcomed holding talks with the Transitional Military Council. South Sudan’s capital, Juba, will also host an adverse meeting between a delegation from the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF) and Commander of Sudan People's Liberation Army/North Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, who called for holding the talks, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. According to the sources, Hilu is expected to propose a new initiative to deal with the Sudanese crisis, and representatives of the DFCF will hand over their passports to the South Sudanese Embassy in Khartoum and are expected to arrive in Juba on Saturday. They pointed out that South Sudan’s government, which had also proposed an initiative to resolve the conflict, is only hosting the meeting, without playing any further role. Meanwhile, different parts of Sudan witnessed protests, demonstrations and rallies calling for handing over the power to a civilian government, and the DFCF took over a joint African-Ethiopian mediation initiative. DFCF announced receiving a draft agreement submitted by the joint African-Ethiopian mediation. “On 27 June, the DFCF received a draft for a proposed agreement submitted by the joint African-Ethiopian mediation to agree with the Military Council on the basis of the Declaration of Principles, it said in brief statement on its Facebook page. It announced earlier that it has agreed to the "Declaration of Principles" presented by the Ethiopian mediator Mahmoud Dirar. “We are now reviewing the proposal submitted to decide in this regard,” said DFCF, commenting on the draft.

Libyan National Army Launches Counteroffensive to Recapture Gharyan

Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) on Thursday took everyone by surprise after it officially announced regaining full control over the strategic northwestern Gharyan town, which is located some 80 km away from the capital, Tripoli. Prior to the takeover, Gharyan served as headquarters to the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces under the leadership of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. After losing its main forward base, the eastern-based LNA announced spearheading a counterattack to retake the town. An LNA officer, who requested anonymity, denied claims about GNA loyalists circling and zeroing in on LNA positions northwest of the African state. “Pro-LNA troops were temporarily withdrawn from Gharyan until further notice,” the sources said. On the other hand, the LNA launched a counter-military campaign that acts across all fronts on the outskirts of the capital Tripoli. This offensive is meant to regain control of Gharyan. According to military sources, the LNA’S air forces launched a series of air strikes targeting pro-GNA militias based in one of Gharyan’s camps. The LNA media center later released a broadcast revealing that the strategic town was taken over after GNA-tied militias succeeded in bribing a number of Gharyan-based officers who turned coat and handed over the keys to the city. LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari, during a presser in Benghazi on Wednesday, said that the battle for Gharyan “first started on Facebook before moving into the battlefield.” Sleeper cells on the inside guaranteed pro-GNA militia advances, he added. Mismari admitted that GNA forces had secured control over some parts of the town without acknowledging that they had taken over the whole city. “Some sleeper cells first attempted to destabilize the security of Mount Gharyan and secured the progress of terrorist groups,” he reaffirmed, whilst stressing that “the situation is still under control.” On the other hand, witnesses reported that GNA loyalists took control of the LNA’s main operations room after pro-Haftar troops left town. As for the GNA, the Presidential Council headed by Fayez al-Sarraj issued a statement saying Gharyan was “completely liberated” and considered it the first step towards thwarting a so-called coup attempt looking for a power grab.'

No 'Power Vacuum' in Tunisia despite President's Illness, Says Advisor
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Tunisia is not at risk of a power vacuum despite the sudden hospitalisation of President Beji Caid Essebsi, one of his advisors said Friday, describing veteran leader's condition as stable. Essebsi, 92, was taken to hospital for a "serious illness" on Thursday, the same day that twin suicide attacks claimed by the Islamic State group killed a police officer in Tunis and wounded several other people. "We have a president. There is no constitutional vacancy," one of his key advisors, Noureddine Ben Ticha, told the Express FM radio station. He said the president's condition was "unchanged". The Tunisian constitution, adopted three years after the 2011 Arab Spring uprising that toppled longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, provides two measures in the case of a power vacuum. The prime minister can take over the president's responsibilities for a period of no more than 60 days, or if the vacancy is longer the speaker of parliament is tasked with the role for up to 90 days. In both cases the decision must be taken by the constitutional court after it validates the president's incapacity. But eight years after the Arab Spring, Tunisia has yet to set up a constitutional court. On Thursday parliament speaker Mohammed Ennaceur, 85, held a meeting with the heads of parties following the twin suicide bombings and Essebsi's illness.After his hospitalisation, another key advisor Firas Guefrech had described the president as in "critical condition", and in a later tweet said Essebsi was "stable". The president's son, Hafedh Caid Essebsi, said late Thursday that there were "the beginnings of an improvement" in his father's condition. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed said on Facebook he had paid a visit to the ailing leader. "I would like to reassure Tunisians that the president is receiving the necessary care," he said, warning people not to spread "false and confusing information" after several media reported Essebsi's death. The country's first democratically elected president, Essebsi came to power in 2014, three years after the Arab Spring that sparked revolts and regime changes in several countries in the region.

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on June 288-29/2019
Why Iran’s Aggression Won’t Succeed
James Phillips/Michael Johns Jr./ The Daily Signal/June 28/2019
President Donald Trump’s new round of sanctions against Iran is the latest salvo in a wide-ranging effort to pressure the regime in Tehran. The goal is to halt Iran’s exportation of terror and subversion and force Iran to accept tighter restrictions on its nuclear program.
The sanctions announced Monday add to an already extensive set of punitive economic measures and specifically target Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several top officials in his regime.
In addition to sanctioning the Office of the Supreme Leader, which is estimated to control a global network of companies worth $100-$200 billion, the Treasury Department sanctioned eight senior leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy, aerospace, and ground forces.
The president imposed the new sanctions after canceling military strikes that he had ordered against Revolutionary Guard missile batteries in retaliation for the June 19 shoot-down of a U.S. Navy surveillance drone in international air space.
The sanctions signal the Trump administration’s determination to continue its “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Not surprisingly, the sanctions triggered howls of protest in Tehran. President Hassan Rouhani denounced them as “outrageous and idiotic” and charged that the White House “was afflicted by mental retardation.”
The spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the sanctions “[mean] closing the doors of diplomacy by the U.S.”
Trump responded with a series of tweets on Tuesday, including:
Iran’s very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration. No more John Kerry & Obama!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 25, 2019
John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, blamed Iran for dragging its feet on diplomacy:
The president has held the door open to real negotiations to completely and verifiably eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons program, its pursuit of ballistic missile delivery systems, its support for international terrorism, and other malign behavior worldwide. All that Iran needs to do is to walk through that open door.
Maximum Pressure vs. Maximum Blackmail
The slow-motion confrontation between Iran and the U.S. is dramatically accelerating as the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign takes effect, forcing Tehran to pay an increasingly painful price for its hostile foreign policy and refusal to return to nuclear negotiations.
The World Bank estimates that Iran is on track for negative 4.5% real gross domestic product growth—the second-worst projection in the world on a key metric of economic health.
Iran’s inflation rate has risen sharply from about 10% in mid-2018 to about 52% in April 2019, as the Iranian rial plummets in value and private spending contracts.
Clearly, U.S. sanctions have had a devastating impact, even without European support.
Extensive economic sanctions against Iran were initially announced in Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s first major policy speech, which was given at The Heritage Foundation in May 2018.
The new policy, he promised, would impose “unprecedented financial pressure” against Tehran unless it “halted its uranium enrichment program and hostile regional policies.”
Unwilling to give up on either, Iran is now paying an escalating price for its brazen commitment to fomenting instability and violence in the Middle East and beyond. Now barred from export markets and the international banking system, the mullahs are slowly being denied the resources they need to continue funding essential parts of their dangerous agenda.
Tehran’s draft budget for 2019-2020 is evidence of a regime on the ropes: Among its many austerity measures, the regime planned to implement a 28% cut in funding to its military budget, including a 17% reduction for the Revolutionary Guard, which the State Department rightly designated as a foreign terrorist organization this April. That’s a significant blow for the Revolutionary Guard, which is a core part of Iran’s grand strategy, charged with acting as the sword and shield of Iran’s Islamic revolution.
Iran’s Shadow War
The Revolutionary Guard carried out a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman over the past two months, attacks that are part of Iran’s policy of pushing back against U.S. sanctions with veiled threats against Arab oil exporters and the flow of gulf oil.
On May 12, four oil tankers carrying oil exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—two adversaries that stood to gain materially by providing alternatives to Iranian oil—were sabotaged with limpet mines. After Washington sanctioned Iran’s petrochemical exports, two petrochemical tankers carrying Arab petrochemical exports were sabotaged with limpet mines on June 13, and Revolutionary Guard personnel were videotaped removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of one of the ships by a U.S. Navy helicopter.
To minimize the chances of further embarrassing revelations, the Revolutionary Guard then shot down a U.S. Navy surveillance drone on June 19 and falsely claimed it had strayed into Iranian air space.
The Revolutionary Guard’s low-intensity warfare is a calibrated, semi-clandestine campaign of intimidation aimed at expanding Tehran’s leverage by signaling resistance, exploiting the vulnerability of gulf oil exports, and threatening to escalate threats against Arab oil-exporting countries aligned with the United States.
The goal is to force the Trump administration to back down from its maximum pressure campaign and drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies, which Tehran hopes will be motivated to help shield Iran from U.S. sanctions.
But this blackmail campaign is unlikely to succeed. Iran’s attacks on oil tankers will not boost its own oil exports or solve its sanctions problems, though they could backfire spectacularly by triggering a costly war with the United States or a diplomatic backlash by oil-importing countries threatened by Iran’s oil blackmail tactics.
Trump, secure in the knowledge that his strategy is paying dividends by penalizing Iran’s hostile policies, has doubled down on his pressure campaign by imposing new economic sanctions and approving U.S. cyberattacks against Revolutionary Guard military computers that control rocket and missile launchers.
Disabling Iranian missile sites through cyberattacks, rather than conventional military attacks, has several advantages.
It underscores to Tehran that it is vulnerable to additional counter-threats, casts doubt on its military capabilities, and helps reassure nervous U.S. allies that Washington seeks a diplomatic resolution, not a war with Iran.
Still, Iran’s ruthless regime remains on a collision course with the United States. If it continues to reject diplomacy in favor of violence and intimidation, then a military clash and perhaps a full-scale war is increasingly likely.

Analysis/Why Trump May End Up Calling Rohani ‘Dear Friend’ After All
زفي برئيل/هآرتس: لهذا الأسباب قد يتوقف ترامب عن مناداة روحاني يا صديقي العزيز
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/2019

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Before heading to negotiations, Washington must set its red lines and clarify what it offers in return.
It’s been a few days since the Iranians downed an American drone, and no new attack has taken place in the Gulf, excluding attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi airports. The mysterious attacks on oil tankers (for one of which the United Arab Emirates still wants further proof that Iran perpetrated) have been replaced instead by fierce verbal exchanges.
Iran has diagnosed the White House as “mentally disabled” and threatened that if America attacks its sovereignty again, its response will be much harsher than downing a drone. U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed that if Tehran attacks American forces, it will be “the official end” of Iran.
In between, both sides stress that they don’t want war. Trump has repeatedly demanded direct talks with Iran, while Iran has rejected the offer because it doesn’t trust America.
But the clock hasn’t stopped ticking. On Thursday, Iran’s threat to increase its stockpile of low-enriched uranium beyond the 300 kilograms permitted by the nuclear deal has gone into effect. The next deadline is July 7, when Iran has threatened to start enriching uranium beyond the 3.7 percent level permitted by the agreement, perhaps even going to as high as 20 percent, if the deal’s European signatories don’t find a practical way to circumvent U.S. sanctions.
None of the relevant parties has a thought-out strategy for confronting Iran – not only over attacks in the Gulf, but primarily over its planned violations of the nuclear deal. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke repeatedly this week with both Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Trump, trying to ease tensions and reduce the danger of a confrontation. To Trump, he publicly promised that France opposes Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and to Rohani, he talked up his efforts to launch a trading mechanism that would circumvent the sanctions, a mechanism that still hasn’t taken off.
Arm wrestling over the nuclear deal isn’t just taking place between Europe and the United States. Even within the U.S. administration, there’s no agreement on how to deal with Iran - either on the tactical or the strategic level.
One focus of disputes is whether to allow Iran to develop its nuclear program for peaceful purposes. The nuclear deal’s permissions are based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran has signed, as well as specific articles in the nuclear deal that allow it to purchase enriched uranium for research and electricity production – carried out at the Bushehr power plant and the Arak and Fordow facilities.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has taken the lead in forging Trump’s Iran policy with support from Republican senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, wants Trump to cancel these permits and thereby complete America’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, though also an uncompromising hawk, opposes scrapping the permits, out of fear that Iran would then produce the requisite amounts of enriched uranium itself. And Europe, all the while, is hoping that Washington’s continued issuing of permits indicates a willingness to keep at least parts of the deal in place, rather than scrapping it entirely.
For now, Trump has reissued the permits, but for 90 days rather than the 180 days stipulated in the agreement, after which he will reconsider. The contradiction of having withdrawn from the deal while continuing to honor certain parts of it doesn’t seem to bother him. After all, it’s minor compared to the contradiction of seeking negotiations with Tehran after withdrawing from the deal, which Iran was in full compliance with.
Perhaps Iran’s decision to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium will determine the fate of these permits. And if Trump decides to cancel them, he will merely bolster Iran’s argument.
In the absence of any diplomatic or military strategy aside from threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – which Trump says he wants to avoid – it’s worth considering the impact of the new sanctions he’s imposed on Iran.
According to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the decision to impose sanctions on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stems from his status as the ultimate decision maker and the person in charge of the Revolutionary Guards, which Washington listed as a terrorist organization in April. Mnuchin said Khamenei controls assets estimated to be worth more than $200 billion, which are used, inter alia, to build up Iran’s armed forces and conduct military operations outside the country.
One could legitimately wonder why the administration didn’t impose sanctions on Khamenei previously. But the more interesting bit of information is that Iran has a huge financial cushion that could keep it afloat for a long time, even until the next U.S. presidential election.
Incidentally, the lack of governmental oversight and published data about where Khamenei’s slush fund – created by his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini – invests its assets will make it hard to implement these sanctions, especially since most of the money is deposited in Iran.
Sanctions on Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, meanwhile, put Trump on a collision course with the United Nations, since they may result in Zarif being denied a visa to attend the UN General Assembly. That would be unprecedented, and it would violate the UN Charter.
But if Trump is clinging to sanctions as a way to convince Iran to agree to negotiate, it’s difficult to deduce what kind of agreement he’s aiming for. A year ago, Pompeo presented a list of 12 demands that Iran would have to comply with for Washington to lift the sanctions. Most analysts divide these demands into three categories.
First are the demands Iran could agree to, like disclosing the military nuclear program it ran before signing the nuclear deal. That information is already readily available from the International Atomic Energy Agency, although perhaps Washington is looking for an Iranian “confession.” Other demands in this category include allowing inspectors immediate access to any suspect Iranian facility (the nuclear deal already has such a provision, but it gives Iran 24 days to accede to such a request); releasing Americans and dual citizens from Iranian jails; ending Iranian aid to the Taliban in Afghanistan (which Iran says is a defense from Islamic State, but which Washington claims is enabling the Taliban to attack American forces); ceasing to threaten American allies, mainly Israel and Saudi Arabia; and ceasing to threaten passage through the Straits of Hormuz.
The second category consists of demands which Iran would have trouble agreeing to. These include ceasing its intervention in Iraq’s internal affairs and funding for Iraqi militias, ending aid to the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and withdrawing its forces from Syria.
The third category consists of demands Iran would certainly reject because they touch on core national security issues. These include demands to shut down its heavy water facility, eschew the processing of plutonium for military purposes, stop development and manufacturing of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and cut support for the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, commanded by Qassem Soleimani.
Over time, however, the Pompeo demands have lost relevance. Trump hasn’t mentioned them when speaking of his desire to negotiate with Iran. It might actually have been possible to negotiate with Tehran over the lion’s share of these demands without quitting the nuclear deal, by building a relationship of trust based on Iran’s economic dependence on the West, rather than relying on sanctions and threats.
Nevertheless, Trump has never explained what his red lines are, which demands he would be willing to concede, and in exchange for what. For instance, would he agree to sell Iran fighter jets if it halts its missile program, which serves as a substitute for its virtually nonexistent air force? Is removing Iranian forces from Syria more important to him than Iran’s admission that it maintained a military nuclear program?
Moreover, what is he willing to offer Iran in exchange for all this, given that Iran is unlikely to be satisfied with just the removal of sanctions, already promised in the 2015 deal? Iran will undoubtedly demand potent sweeteners if it agrees to negotiate, so that its regime can present concrete achievements and not look as if it capitulated to American pressure.
For now, Tehran’s position is similar to that of the Palestinians – that even agreeing to negotiate with the Americans would be a capitulation, if not a defeat. But Iran knows how to devise magic formulas when it makes a policy decision. “I agree with what I termed years ago ‘heroic flexibility,’ because this approach works very well, and it’s necessary in certain situations, as long as we stick to our principles,” Khamenei said in 2013, laying the groundwork for negotiating the nuclear deal. Mansour Haqiqatpour, who is currently an advisor to the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said at the time that “correcting the relationship between Iran and the U.S. would crack the spine of the Zionist regime and of the reactionary regimes in the Middle East,” a truly paramount Iranian goal for which it might even be worth negotiating with Trump.

Inside Intelligence: Israel-Egypt Coperation Key To Beating Back ISIS In Sinai
يونا جيرمي بوي/جيرازولم بوست: تقرير مخابراتي يؤكد نجاج تعاون مصر وإسرائيل بمحاربة وهزيمة داعش في سيناء
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
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Ex-US counterterrorism chief Nick Rasmussen talks to the ‘Post’ about regional threats, cooperation with Israeli intelligence and redefining international terrorism.
Israeli-Egyptian cooperation is the key to confronting the threat posed by ISIS Sinai, former director of the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Nick Rasmussen told The Jerusalem Post in a recent exclusive interview.
Rasmussen, who was the center’s chief from 2014 until December 2017, straddling the Obama and Trump administrations, complimented the reports of quiet-but-effective cooperation between Cairo and Jerusalem.
Currently director of the McCain Institute’s Counterterrorism Program, he said that, “given the extensive capabilities of Israel’s intelligence apparatus,” this would make it harder for ISIS to attack Israel from Sinai – although it has clearly tried.
While some have looked at Sinai as one of the new key bases of operations for ISIS, he said that the jihadist organization is “not moving en masse to set up the caliphate” in a single, specific alternative spot.
Rather, there are many alternatives, he said, noting that “the Sinai is not the only one.”
Rasmussen added the Philippines and, even more so, Libya. In addition, he said that he personally is most concerned about reprisal terrorist attacks within other Arab countries.
The NCTC has over a thousand intelligence professionals working for it across 20 US agencies, analyzing and carrying out strategic planning to fight terrorist threats to America.
It was formed after 9/11 based on expert recommendations, which stated that, had an agency existed to ensure that all of the dozen or so US intelligence agencies cooperated better in sharing intelligence, the attacks might have been foiled.
Discussing the potential of ISIS to make a comeback less than two months after its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, came out with a video showing he was still alive despite rumors otherwise, Rasmussen said that with ISIS routed from its capitals in Iraq and Syria, everything “is linked to the question: How do we successfully address the political aspirations of the broader Sunni community in Iraq or Syria?
“To the extent the Sunni population still feels marginalized and disenfranchised, this creates a pool of potential adherents or recruits, the same as it did a decade ago with Islamic State 2.0,” he stated.
Continuing, he said: “That is a population from which they were allowed to become a mass movement, and not just a clandestine terrorist organization… Though the caliphate has been destroyed, ISIS is perfectly able to convert to embed into the broader Sunni population.”
From there, he said that ISIS can “bide its time until an opportunity presents itself to capitalize on the grievances, to expand again into a broad-based insurgency campaign.”
To combat this possibility, Western government and intelligence officials must be asking themselves, “How do we create a more inclusive political system in Iraq to stop the Sunni community’s feeling of being marginalized?”
Regarding the group’s resiliency, he pointed out that “ISIS had quite a bit of time to prepare for the current phase. The campaigns against Mosul, Raqqa and smaller pockets in the Euphrates River Valley took a long time. It was the world’s longest telegraphed punch.”
Since ISIS “knew what the coalition was doing, they had plenty of time to prepare for the outcome,” he said.
Fundamentally, he said that it is crucial for the US to have learned that “we don’t turn away and think the Iraqis can handle it all on their own. That is not a recipe for success. There is plenty of room for debate about what presence the US should have, but it must have some role.”
One area where the ISIS threat has been less than expected has been that fewer of its fighters from the West have returned to Europe and beyond.
Following comments last week by a Syrian Democratic Forces commander that England could still face a large number of ISIS sleeper cells perpetrating terrorism there, Rasmussen said that “we were very focused in my tenure” on the volume of ISIS returnees to the West.
Now, he said, “the analysis has shifted. It is not as much a quantity problem, as a quality problem… Most foreign fighters have chosen or been compelled to stay in conflict zones to fight and die, or go to the countryside… and our defense against outflow of fighters [to the West] is better than before.”
But the “SDF commander’s words are something to worry about,” he said. “Maybe not hundreds of ISIS fighters will return to the UK, but should the UK be concerned if the wrong three to five fighters are returning?… If they are very capable and highly trained?… We still have a quality problem, so we need to find out who we should be the most worried about and get the right intelligence.”
MOVING ON to American and Israeli intelligence cooperation, such as tips Israel’s Mossad has taken credit for relating to sabotaging ISIS plots to explode airplanes using laptop computers, Rasmussen demurred.
“I’m constrained; I was in government too recently,” to discuss specifics, but he said that in general, “we have a very robust dialogue and intelligence exchange with Israeli intelligence services on the full range of terror-related issues in the Middle East. ISIS has featured prominently in those discussions. We looked to Israel as helpful partners.”
Despite what he called generally excellent intelligence cooperation, when pressed, Rasmussen acknowledged that sometimes the US and Israel, especially under different administrations, may even view intelligence differently, based on the differing threats and constellation of national priorities in play.
“Most of my career I was in the White House, the National Security Council and the US State Department. I was not a career intelligence professional. But at NCTC I was involved in intelligence. Even with our closest partners, we can have different perspectives. That happens with the US, Israel, England and almost any country you can think of, with whom you have a close intelligence relationship.”
He continued, saying that “I hope to be open and honest about differences, so we can evaluate what we are hearing from our partner” and understand each side’s policy choices and preferences, since “I don’t want to question the veracity of the information” itself, and “I never saw anything like that happen with the terror issues I dealt with.”
In addition, he said that “Israel is an aggressive and very direct partner in bringing terror concerns to the US. At meetings with Israeli intelligence officials, you knew you would get well developed and thoughtful presentations – for example, what is happening with Hezbollah – instead of just general comments.”
Rasmussen also got to know issues relating to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intimately during his service.
Referring to the Trump administration’s recent decision to define the entire IRGC as a terrorist group, “I understood the political views for wanting to do it,” but questioned whether it was more effective than other moves.
He said that the US could have “designated specific entities and individuals associated with the IRGC, to make a point in a very direct and precise way about who was involved in terror-related behavior.”
In contrast, he said that “by designating the entire group as a terror organization, you set up a potential conflict where you are demonizing an entire segment of the Iranian national security apparatus.”
“While that may be politically useful to make the case about Iran… I am not sure it puts us in a better place,” implying that he would have preferred a scalpel in applying sanctions rather than a big machete.
RASMUSSEN HAS some cutting-edge ideas about redefining how we think about “international” terrorism.
“I am not sure we have all the answers. In some ways, my thinking on this started evolving after the Christchurch attack. It is almost embarrassing that I did not think about this before. This brought it home to me.”
His point was that attacks are perpetrated in the US by white supremacists and antisemites, with non-jihadist ideologies, where the attackers benefit from, coordinate with, or are inspired by domestic terrorists in other countries – even without an apparent ideological bridge between them.
After the Pittsburgh attack, he said, the US needed to explore the idea of international links between those individuals who share such violent ideologies.
Looking to the Christchurch attack, he said: “We noted from travel patterns that an attacker had some interaction with people who thought like he thought,” though they lived in other countries and were not part of a joint network.
“It doesn’t mean they have a network or organization like ISIS or Hezbollah, but maybe there can be an international dimension to domestic terrorism. This has not been completely explored,” he noted.
He said that recently, he was having dinner with his former British counterpart and that the two of them remarked how strange it was that they never dealt with sharing information about domestic terrorism with international dimensions as a strategic issue.
To properly combat this kind of terrorism, new questions need to be asked, such as “what kind of new intelligence and sharing do you need from German, French, Danish and Belgian security services? Until now this conversation related only to ISIS-inspired attackers,” but he said that making international connections needed to expand.
ENTERING THE cyber realm, Rasmussen said he was astonished by the level of detail in a recent New York Times story about the US planting cyber booby traps in the Russian electrical power system.
He said the US hack of Russia and the decision to leak it was a “signaling device to the Russians” that the US is degrading Russian capabilities.
“You need to find the art of striking” and sending whatever signal you want to send, while managing the level of detail that is leaked into the public domain, noting that he found the specificity of detail leaked in this case “troubling.” he said. He explained that the US wanted Russia to know that we “are working aggressively to develop these capabilities” of planting cyber booby traps. The purpose of these tools and of advertising them in public is to deter the Russians, though he said that, “I hope we do not need to use these tools.”
Having worked with US peace negotiator Dennis Ross from 1996 to 2001 during the height of the Oslo process, Rasmussen said that the current state of broken-down Israeli-Palestinian relations can be hard to take.
He worries that the next generation on both sides of the conflict may find it more difficult to continue to envision any kind of peace horizon.
At the same time, concluding on a positive note, he said that he hoped the next generation “will be more creative and find ways to peacefully coexist.”

Are Military Options Available For Trump To End Iranian Nuclear Threat?
أريك أر. منديل/جيرازولم بوست: ترى هل الخيارات الحربية متوفرة لدى ترامب لإنهاء التهديد الإيراني النووي؟
Eric R.Mandel/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
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Last week I debated an American intelligence officer regarding how the United States should respond to Iranian provocations.
Last week I debated an American intelligence officer regarding how the United States should respond to Iranian provocations. He believed that the US would be playing into Iran’s hands with any military response, harming the possibility of forging a united front to challenge Iran if it breaks the nuclear agreement. From this perspective, turning the other cheek to Iran’s aggressions allows the focus to remain exclusively on its nuclear aspirations.
No matter what happens between the United States and Iran this month – whether there is a conventional military response, another under-the-radar cyberattack, more sanctions, or no response at all – the only surety is that this will not to be the end of the confrontation but simply another, albeit dangerous, chapter in the 40-year clash of civilizations between America and the revolutionary Islamist movement.
President Trump avoided a military response to the recent attack, instead choosing increased sanctions, calling them “strong and proportionate.”
Although American diplomacy without a credible military threat plays well in Brussels, if America is perceived to be a paper tiger, ignoring attacks on American and allied interests, it greatly weakens the possibility that diplomacy will be successful here and elsewhere.
Iran thinks it has taken the measure of Trump with multiple attacks and no military response, and they may now believe they can continue to push America even further. North Korea is watching, and our allies wonder how reliable an ally America is anymore.
Waiting out this administration was the original Iranian plan, but the new sanctions are undermining its economy and the stability of the regime. The only question is when will the Iranian people mass by the millions into the streets again as they did in 2009.
According to James Phillips of the Heritage Institute, “Iran’s high-seas terrorism and intimidation tactics give European allies ample reason to reconsider their soft and naive approach to Iran policy, and to reunite with the US in seeking a more binding and long-lasting agreement to preclude an Iranian nuclear weapon.”
It will be very hard to convince the Europeans to join, as they believe we would not be in the current situation if only the president had not withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal. The false narrative that everything was fine with Iran until Trump withdrew from the deal defies the evidence.
Europe has chosen to hide their eyes to all of Iran’s malevolent behavior committed after the JCPOA went into effect: its current terrorist activity in Europe, its destabilizing activity in the West Bank, its money laundering in South America, its ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq, its entrenchment of its Shi’ite allies in the Iraqi military, and its support of terrorist entities Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Europeans have ignored all of this in addition to Iranian missile development, and its unrelenting support of terrorism.
But will Trump, in the quest for a new nuclear deal, follow Obama – who believed that you could separate Iran’s nuclear weapons program from its other malign activity? Let’s hope not. Iranian expansionism is creating a noose around Israel.
According to Avi Issacharoff writing in the Times of Israel, “In a reality once unthinkable, Assad’s troops along the Golan border are heeding commanders of the Iran-backed terror group [Hezbollah], and helping it prepare for conflict with the Jewish state,” while Seth Frantzman of The Jerusalem Post reported that “Tehran envisions joint military exercises and missile defense” between Iran and Iraq.
SO HOW to proceed? The Islamic threat of terrorism and intimidation works on Europe. Europe’s first impulse is to try and placate Iran. There is something hypocritical when Europeans condescend to Americans about their high-minded defense of human rights, then fight with all of their might to create a bartering system: INSTEX (the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran), to bypass American sanctions to help enrich the world’s leading terrorist state.
So here are some thoughts:
• Attacking Iranian interests doesn’t mean a path to war.
Thirty years ago, America attacked Iranian oil platforms during Operation Praying Mantis after Iranian mines hit an American frigate. More than 100 Iranians were killed and war did not follow.
• Don’t underestimate the power of American sanctions
After Trump withdrew from the Iran deal and re-imposed sanctions, the mainstream media said that without European support and with only American sanctions, there was no way to put significant pressure on Iran. Fast forward, and since the re-imposition of sanctions, Iran is plagued with worsening inflation, raging unemployment and, most importantly, a dissatisfied populace that wants change.
• Iran is vulnerable
It is much better to confront a weakened and vulnerable Iran than to placate the Iranians with hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief that will only empower them to undermine American interests, and almost certainly force us back into another Middle Eastern confrontation, but not under our terms.
• America needs to get off Western time
We must learn in short order to have patience and not expect results in dealing with Iran. All of our adversaries, including Iran, know that America enters conflicts with one foot out the door before it even begins.
The simplest way forward would be for the Europeans to rejoin sanctions if Iran breaks its nuclear commitment. Just as important would be a combined Chinese, American and Indian flotilla, flagging tankers with their national flags to protect shipping in international waterways. Standing with Israel and Jordan against Iranian entrenchment in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq remains a vital American national security interest that cannot be bartered in a new nuclear agreement.
Whatever happens, remember that as long as this regime remains a revolutionary theocracy, it will not change its stripes. There should be no illusions about this. The best we can do if regime change is not on the table is containment. Iranian aggression will for sure come knocking again, and we will at some point need to choose how to respond, militarily or not.
*The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network, who regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy advisers. He is a regular columnist for The Jerusalem Post and i24TV International, and a contributor to The Hill, JTA, JNS and The Forward.

What Is Trump Up to in Iran?
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg View/June 28/2019
On Thursday, my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Mark Gongloff wrote: “America either is or is not sliding toward war with Iran, depending on the time of day, prevailing winds and relative hangriness of whoever happens to be making the War Decisions at the moment.”
Then things got even more unsettled. As the New York Times reported, “President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.”
Where to begin? Frankly, I’m at a bit of a loss. The president is evidently ordering and countermanding military strikes while he has a lame-duck acting secretary of defense and an acting Air Force secretary. He’s handed key decisions over to a national security adviser whom he regularly bad-mouths. Meanwhile, he’s apparently consulting with goofball cable-news hosts to figure out some of the most important questions of his presidency.
It’s not as if his previous rounds of crises have been resolved. Not the trade war with China, not the appalling treatment of migrant families at the US border, not the standoff in Venezuela (which Trump apparently just got bored of and moved on).
As for what the president is up to in Iran? Peter Baker says: “For two and a half years, he has veered between bellicose threats against America’s enemies and promises to get the United States out of the intractable wars of the Middle East. Now he had to choose.” And yet rather than choosing, he seems to be going full speed ahead in both directions at once.
Even if we give Trump every benefit of the doubt, supposing – without evidence – that this was actually a well-considered plan that was designed to look like chaos for some as yet unknown but actually sensible reason, it’s still hard to imagine how allies can have any confidence in an administration that appears to act so impulsively. Back on Thursday, three scholars of how wars start still found it possible to offer soothing words about how shooting down a drone shouldn’t lead to uncontrollable escalation. That’s somewhat reassuring, I guess.
But meanwhile, Trump’s professional reputation in Washington (and in capitals around the world) will take yet another hit, on a day when the president suffered yet another defeat in the Republican-majority Senate. None of this is likely to have any direct effect on Trump’s approval ratings or his re-election chances. But it will continue to make it less and less likely that anyone will do anything this president wants.

The 'Cat-And-Mouse' World of the Ayatollah
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June 28/2019
A few weeks ago, the Islamic Republic’s “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described his regime’s decades-long conflict with the United States as a real-life re-enactment of the Tom and Jerry cartoons from Hollywood in which a crafty little mouse provokes the clumsy big cat into all manner of threatening gestures but always ends up emerging safe and sound.  In Khamenei’s bizarre depiction, the Islamic Republic is the little mouse (Jerry) and the United States the big cat (Tom). Why should Khamenei make a conflict that has done so much damage to Iran as a nation the subject of so frivolous a depiction is something beyond the scope of this article. No serious political leader would see a conflict with an adversary as no more than a childish game. But, we never accused the Ayatollah of being a serious leader. Like Jerry, he is only interested in attracting attention by provocation and then dodging punishment, prolonging the life of his regime by a few more minutes, hours or even years. Khamenei does not see the difference between the behavior of a cartoon mouse and a nation of 85 million real human beings. Jerry can be as provocative and playful as he wants because he does not need a job, a school, a hospital, a roof above his head, some food (cheese?) on his table, and a rule-based system to protect his rights and dignity. Like all ideologues, fantasist to a fault, Khamenei has little time for reality.
But what is the reality?
Khamenei says the sanctions imposed by the United States must be regarded as “blessings in disguise” because they preclude the quest for a modus vivendi between Tom and Jerry. “The sanctions have no effects but strengthen our resistance,” he boasts. However, his lobbyists in the West, especially in the United States, know they cannot win any sympathy for the Islamic Republic with so vacuous a claim. They have to persuade the Western public, or at least the bleeding-heart do-gooders and the useful idiots, that the sanctions imposed by the “Great Satan” are destroying the lives of ordinary Iranians without having any effect on the Khomeinist leadership.
The truth is that sanctions are affecting the lives of many ordinary Iranians in the context of what has morphed into an economic war. Contrary to claims by Khomeinist lobbyists in the West, Iran is not facing any shortage of food or medications, items not affected by sanctions. However, factories closing for lack of imported spare parts cause mass unemployment while the plummeting value of the national currency fuels stagflation. Last week the government announced that more than 4800 projects have been slowed down or frozen for lack of funds. To maintain its current average levels of expenditure, the Islamic Republic government would need to export 1.5 million barrels of crude oil a day. Since last March, however, exports have never risen above 500,000 barrels a day.
Sanctions have also led to some modification of the regime’s behavior at home and abroad. According to reliable sources handouts to such groups as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza have been cut by an average of 10 percent. This is certainly not enough to force any significant change of behavior by those groups but sends a signal that Tehran’s traditional generosity may not be forever. The export of Jihadis to Syria has also dwindled to a trickle. This is partly due to the relative calming of the overall situation in that country and that Iran’s presence has been reduced to enclaves in Deir az-Zour and Albukamal. Nevertheless, when it comes to hiring Pakistani and Afghan mercenaries, shortage of money must also be a factor.
The regime’s cash-flow problem, partly caused by sanctions, has also led to virtual freezing of the controversial missile project at a range of 2000 kilometers.
That sanctions are working could also be seen in other domains. This year the Islamic Republic did not organize its annual “End of America;’ and “End of Israel” jamborees that usually attracted hundreds of professional America-haters, Trump-bashers and Holocaust deniers from all over the world d including the US itself. This year no international Holocaust cartoons competition, held since 2006, was held while a TV serial depicting “the Great Satan’s crimes” has been scrapped. A long-talked-of seminar of African-Americans to discuss the creation of a “black Muslim republic” in the United States was scrapped for lack of money. As far as we know, there was also no sign of Nation of Islam chief Louis Farrakhan, an annual visitor, coming to extract contributions from the Islamic Republic.
Interestingly, it seems that the fading star-spangled banners painted at the entrance of most public offices to be trampled under feet are no longer repainted, undermining one of the Khomeinist revolution’s most cherished rituals.
In another register, shortage of money forced the mullahs to release over 65000 prisoners, more than a quarter of those jailed in the Islamic Republic. That meant that Iran lost its position as the world-number-one nation in a number of prisoners relative to population; it is now number-three after China and Turkey.
Contrary to what Pat Buchanan in the US and Jeremy Corbyn in Britain say sanctions are working not by wrecking the lives of ordinary Iranians, who do suffer nevertheless, but by denying the mullahs the means to indulge in their deadly Tom-and-Jerry shenanigans.
The question is whether, once again, we are going to witness a Groundhog Day rerun. Each time the US imposed sanctions; the mullahs took a bite of humble pie and briefly modified aspects of their behavior as if playing a the Tom-and-Jerry script. However, once sanctions were eased, their Jerry lost no time to revert to its old tricks. The key question here is whether Trump, regarded by opponents to have an attention span no longer than a tweet, will want or be able, as a patient Tom, to sit back and let time do its chastising work on the playful, provocative and perverse Jerry that is the Khomeinist regime.

UN Global Compact: What Happens Next?

Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 28, 2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14391/un-global-compact-next
This initiative [to "present a global plan of action against hate speech and hate crimes on a fast-track basis"] should be deeply concerning and is likely to serve only to silence critics of the UN, including its agenda on migration and the GCM.
The EU, for its part, according to statements by Hungary and Austria, does not appear to agree that implementing the Global Compact should be up to every EU member state. Instead, the EU is working on making it legally binding, even for those EU countries who have not adopted the Compact.
"A 'secret document' has been published on work by the European Commission's legal service to formulate 'lengthy and devious' legal grounds for suggesting that the compact is, after all, mandatory for EU member states." — Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl recently said that she was "astonished" to learn that the legal opinion of the Legal Service of the European Commission "represents a different opinion than the previously communicated [opinion that the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is] legally non-binding." She handed over to Austrian EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn a position paper, clarifying that "UN General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding and you cannot declare parts of them binding."
In December, world leaders of 165 countries adopted an ostensibly non-binding agreement that propagates a radical idea: that migration -- for any reason -- is something that needs to be promoted, enabled and protected[1].
The agreement is named the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM), and now comes its implementation. The UN has not wasted any time in setting this "non-binding" Compact in motion. Already at the Marrakesh Conference in December, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres launched the Migration Network (Network)[2], a new addition to the UN bureaucracy, and seemingly intended to "ensure effective and coherent system‑wide support to the implementation of the Global Compact". The International Organization for Migration (IOM) will serve as the coordinator and secretariat of all constituent parts of the Network in implementing the Global Compact.
The UN, in other words, has set its enormous bureaucratic infrastructure into full motion to see to it that the Compact will have maximum impact across the globe.
IOM director-general Antonio Vitorino has already sent a warning to critics of the UN migration agenda. "If we want to succeed in having a more humane and better world, we should resist the temptation of negative narratives that some want to spread about migration," Vitorino said recently.
His spokesman, Leonard Doyle, recently threatened that unless integrating migrants is taken seriously, terrorism will supposedly occur:
"Populism is certainly a toxic issue that is down to a misunderstanding of the issues... When you don't have integration then you have serious problems like terrorism... It is in everybody's interests that we work towards a better integration of migrants and refugees, not to do so is to store up problems for the future."
The Global Compact contains a provision, clearly signaling that any disagreement with its agenda will not be accepted and that the signatory states will work to dispel "misleading narratives that generate negative perceptions of migrants." According to Objective 17 of the Global Compact, member states are obligated to:
"Promote independent, objective and quality reporting of media outlets, including internet-based information, including by sensitizing and educating media professionals on migration-related issues and terminology, investing in ethical reporting standards and advertising, and stopping allocation of public funding or material support to media outlets that systematically promote intolerance, xenophobia, racism and other forms of discrimination towards migrants, in full respect for the freedom of the media." [Emphasis added.]
UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres, in a January press conference, took it even further, not limiting himself to speech about the Global Compact:
"We need to enlist every segment of society in the battle for values that our world faces today – and, in particular, to tackle the rise of hate speech, xenophobia and intolerance... Poisonous views are penetrating political debates and polluting the mainstream. Let's never forget the lessons of the 1930s. Hate speech and hate crimes are direct threats to human rights, to sustainable development and to peace and security. That is why I have tasked my Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, to bring together a UN team to scale up our response, define a system-wide strategy and present a global plan of action against hate speech and hate crimes on a fast-track basis".
This initiative should be deeply concerning and is likely to serve only to silence critics of the UN, including its agenda on migration and the Global Compact.
As part of the implementation work, on March 21-22, the Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD)[3], a UN-affiliated forum, organized the first GFMD Thematic Workshop on the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) at the national level. Under the theme "Towards a Common Vision and Joint Action in Implementing the GCM at the National Level," the workshop gathered around 190 participants from 89 UN Member States and more than 40 civil society, private sector and international organizations. The agenda for the workshop states:
"Now that the GCM has been adopted, the task ahead is to ensure that its principles take root and the menu of its actionable commitments is implemented. It is a shared responsibility to ensure that more migrants will be taken out of harm's way and their lives will be saved, abuse and exploitation addressed, and migrants' increased productivity and overall positive contribution to the development of their home and destination countries promoted..."
According to a press release from GFMD:
"In her keynote address, Ambassador Laura Thompson, IOM Deputy Director General emphasized that there is no 'one size fits all' model for the GCM implementation, noting that every state will need to determine for itself what steps to take. From IOM's viewpoint, there are three possible GCM implementation approaches—(1) a systematic and robust approach which follows the four-year GCM review cycle; (2) a selective approach where governments decide to match their existing priorities to relevant GCM objectives; and (3) business as usual approach which is doing nothing at all. During the brief open discussion, interveners insisted that the third approach was not an option at the outset."
The EU, for its part, according to statements by Hungary and Austria, does not appear to agree that implementing the Global Compact should be up to every EU member state. Instead, the EU is working on making it legally binding, even for those EU countries who have not adopted the Compact.
"A 'secret document' has been published on work by the European Commission's legal service to formulate 'lengthy and devious' legal grounds for suggesting that the compact is, after all, mandatory for EU member states", said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. He added, "Although the document was not released the way the EC would have wanted it to be, the commission 'has confirmed its existence'".
Similarly, Austrian Foreign Minister, Karin Kneissl, said that she was "astonished" to learn that the legal opinion of the Legal Service of the European Commission "represents a different opinion than the previously communicated [opinion that the Global Compact is] legally non-binding." She handed over to Austrian EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn a position paper, clarifying that "UN General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding and you cannot declare parts of them binding." Hahn dismissed Austria's concern as a "storm in a glass of water". He said that the position of the European Commission has not changed, and that the Global Compact remains a "non-binding instrument".
Whatever the legal status of the Global Compact, the EU appears to be continuing to boost migration into the continent. According to a briefing posted on the European Parliament's website:
"Europe, due to its geographic position and its reputation as an example of stability, generosity and openness against a background of growing international and internal conflicts, climate change and global poverty, is likely to continue to represent an ideal refuge for asylum-seekers and migrants. This is also reflected in the growing amounts, flexibility and diversity of EU funding for migration and asylum policies inside as well as outside the current and future EU budget".
In February, the European Parliament supported the European Commission's suggested increase of the EU budget for asylum, migration and integration policies with 51%. A press release from the European Parliament noted:
"The Civil Liberties Committee endorsed the renewed Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF), the 2021-2027 budget of which will increase up to €9.2 billion (€10.41 billion in current prices, 51% more than in the previous financial framework). It also backed the creation of a new Integrated Border Management Fund (IBMF) and agreed to allocate €7.1 billion (€8 billion in current prices) to it."
At the same time, the top bureaucratic echelons of the European Commission continue to repeat their old, soggy, clichéd mantras. At the April 3 meeting of the European Migration Forum, under the title, "From global to local governance of migration: The role of local authorities and civil society in managing migration and ensuring safe and regular pathways to the EU," Dimitri Avramopolous, the European Commissioner for Migration, said:
"Legal pathways are important to help reduce irregular migration. But we also need to face the reality of our ageing society – this is the case all over Europe. While we will continue to invest in and support all our Member States in fully activating, training and upskilling the existing EU work force and especially our youth, we know that the EU economy will need the work and skills of migrants in the future, especially the highly skilled... The Commission provides support to Member States who have shown interest, as well as to non-public actors to develop temporary labour migration opportunities for selected migrants coming from certain African countries."
While world leaders continue to push for more migration, polls show that many citizens, worldwide, do not want more migration, whether in or out of their countries. According to a December 2018 Pew report:
"Across the countries surveyed, a median of 45% say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move to their country [in Europe the median was 51%], while 36% say they want about the same number of immigrants... In Europe, majorities in Greece (82%), Hungary (72%), Italy (71%) and Germany (58%) say fewer immigrants or no immigrants at all should be allowed to move to their countries... In several countries, most disapprove of how the European Union has handled the refugee issue. People in other countries around the world hold views similar to those in Europe".
Even in Sweden, which is usually hailed as such a migrant-friendly country, 52% said that fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move to their country.
Then again, world leaders seem not to be particularly bothered about what their constituents think.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
[1] Five countries voted against the UN General Assembly Resolution formally endorsing the Global Compact – the United States, Israel, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The Compact was adopted at the Marrakesh Conference in Morocco on December 10-11 last year and was formally endorsed by the UN General Assembly on December 19, 2018.
[2] The purpose of the Network, according to its own terms of reference is to support the "UN System... implementation, follow-up and review of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the network's task is to "ensure effective, timely and coordinated system-wide support to Member States". In carrying out its mandate, the Network will "prioritize the rights and wellbeing of migrants and their communities of destination, origin, and transit".
[3] The GFMD, according to its website, "Does not form part of the United Nations system, although it is open to all States Members and Observers of the United Nations. While the GFMD is an independent and separate process outside of the UN, it coordinates with important elements of the UN system in a number of ways" .It is a "state-led, informal and non-binding process, which helps shape the global debate on migration and development" which was proposed by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2006 and established in 2007, according to its website.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Economics a greater threat to Erdogan than politics
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/June 28, 2019
There is no doubt that the stunning Istanbul local election result is the single biggest setback in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 16-year career as paramount leader of Turkey. An earlier March 2019 contest saw Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose the mayor’s race by a whisker to the Republican People’s Party (CHP) reformist candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu. Not used to being crossed, the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan demanded a rerun due to the narrow margin of victory — just 13,000 votes — and bullied the Turkish electoral board into doing his bidding. At the time, it seemed merely another dreary step on the road to Erdogan’s eclipsing the rest of Turkish society.
But a funny thing happened on the road to cynicism. The people of Istanbul, enraged at this obvious insult to their choice, rallied around Imamoglu, bequeathing him a far more convincing 54 to 45 percent victory in the June 23 recount. Erdogan’s hubristic miscalculation has turned a minor setback into an existential crisis, as his very aura of invincibility has been the major casualty of the Istanbul election.
All this is true, but an overexcited international press has largely ignored political risk realities. It is a fact that the Turkish opposition is in control of cities accounting for almost 70 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP), with nine of the 10 biggest urban areas in the country ruled for the next five years by a mayor linked to the opposition. Istanbul itself is Turkey’s biggest city and commercial hub, accounting for fully 31 percent of the country’s overall GDP in 2017. The startling CHP victory ended 25 years of AKP dominance in the city where Erdogan himself began his career, ironically as mayor.
While this is obviously significant, on closer inspection, all this amounts to less than meets the eye. Despite the local election results, Erdogan’s many political enemies (accounting for restive forces within his own AKP Party, the CHP-led opposition, and the various Kurdish parties) are not yet in any real position to unseat him, and will struggle to do so even in four years’ time, when the next presidential election will take place.
Fractious, divided and weak, these disparate forces are also constitutionally at a real disadvantage. Due to Turkey’s French-style, highly-centralized system of government, much of the funds needed to run the country’s major cities flow directly from the presidential palace in Ankara. To put it mildly, it is unlikely that Erdogan is going to be fiscally generous with his enemies. This fact, coupled with his increasing control of the state bureaucracy, media, and the military, means that a political reversal of fortunes is not, by a long way, Erdogan’s greatest danger.
Instead, as the dust settles from the Istanbul result, the counterintuitive primary political risk facing the Turkish president lies in the mirror. Erdogan’s days may be numbered not due to his political problems, but due to both his hubris and almost total ignorance of economics. It is this key and neglected internal factor that is far more likely to bring about his downfall.
Erdogan’s hubristic miscalculation has turned a minor setback into an existential crisis, as his very aura of invincibility has been the major casualty of the Istanbul election.
Soon after coming to power in 2003 (first as prime minister and then as president), Turkey underwent an economic boom, which Erdogan largely left to others to engineer, most notably his then right-hand man (and now erstwhile opponent) Abdullah Gul. Never very interested in economics, Erdogan has championed an unorthodox economic model based on short-term, credit-fueled growth, built around the construction industry and greater domestic consumption.
This long period of affluence finally broke down in 2018, in the depths of a currency crisis that saw the Turkish lira lose 36 percent of its value against the dollar. The respected Turkish Central Bank, in line with economic orthodoxy, duly raised interest rates to a hair-shirted 24 percent, and the crisis abated somewhat.
Erdogan, horrified that the party was over, railed against his able central bank, urging — in defiance of all economic history — interest rate cuts instead. While the bank prevailed, the damage was done, both in terms of Erdogan’s reputation for competence and for the very notion of the central bank’s independence.
And the dire economic results have become ever clearer. At the very time investor nervousness about Erdogan’s erratic behavior has crested, Turkey has to service around $275 billion in foreign currency-denominated debt. The country endured a technical recession at the end of 2018. Unemployment has increased from 8.4 percent in January 2012 to a dangerous 14.7 percent in February 2019. Also, the populace is hurting due to inflation rates hovering at about 20 percent. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Turkish GDP will decrease in 2019 by a steep 2.3 percent.
Not even the imperious president of Turkey can evade the reality of these economic numbers forever. By not fixing the roof while the sun shines — by not undergoing structural economic reform while he had the chance during the decade-long Turkish economic boom just concluded — Erdogan will now have to govern a very different country, unused to the hard times it undoubtedly faces. It is this economic reality, far more than the temporary triumph of opposition politicians, that is the stake pointed at the heart of a man who until recently was considered politically indestructible.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.co

Before Israel is dragged into a U.S.-Iran war
جيورا أيلند/يدعوت احرونوت/ خطوات يتوجب على إسرائيل أخذها قبل أن تجر إلى حزب بين إيران وأميركا/29 حزيران
Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/June 29/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76214/%d8%ac%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%86%d8%af-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%ae%d8%b7%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%ac%d8%a8/

Opinion: There are steps that the Jewish state could take to diffuse the tensions on its borders, preempting any efforts by Tehran to punish the United States by triggering a proxy Middle East war
Israel is following the events in the Persian Gulf with great interest.
The source of the tensions is the American decision to leave the 2015 nuclear deal without negotiations – a decision unwelcome in Tehran because of the great damage it would cause. And in reality this had, from Iran's perspective, two negative consequences.
First, many European companies began to avoid doing business in Iran - even though the British, German, French, and Italian governments stayed committed to the deal - because they understood that their bread is buttered in the American sphere.
Second, Washington threatened sanctions on countries that continued to buy Iranian oil. Since the oil market is sophisticated and the prices are almost homogenous, more and more of Iran's clients began to buy from other suppliers. These two repercussions have hurt and are continuing to hurt the Iranian economy, which is floundering even more than was initially predicted. As such, Iran was faced with a choice of resigning itself to this bitter new reality, or begin a military confrontation with the U.S.
In the end, Iran decided to take the middle road, and is trying to harm American interests in the region in the hopes that this will strengthen its own standing. This direction included, on the one hand, the defiant statement that Iran would begin to enrich uranium to 20 percent, a blatant violation of the nuclear pact, and on the other hand, allowing its allies in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, to increase their sabotage of American and Saudi interests.
When these steps seemed insufficient, Iran chose more daring action: damaging oil tankers and even shooting down an expensive American drone. Given the initial decision by President Donald Trump to retaliate, it should now be clear to everyone that further Iranian aggression will lead to an American response, and probably one that is even more destructive than the aborted mission.
As the escalation in the Gulf grows, so do the chances that Israel will be dragged into a military confrontation. The chances of a direct Iranian attack on the Jewish state are small, but the Iranians can act in other ways.
They can hit Israel from Syrian territory, where they have the ability to launch rockets and drones, and thus raise tensions – even if their aspirations for a permanent base on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights have been frustrated. Or, Tehran could encourage its Palestinian proxy Islamic Jihad to fire at Israel from the Gaza Strip.
Israelis tend to speak about Gaza's militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the same way, but the differences between them are large.
Hamas is first and foremost a political organization that acts as the government of Gaza, and therefore its calculus is complex. Islamic Jihad on the other hand is nothing more than a terror group, without no political responsibility for its actions, and thus it is the more trigger-happy of the two.
Islamic Jihad is controlled and financed by Iran and while it is small in comparison to Hamas, it has the means to easily drag Israel and Gaza into a full military contest. A third possibility for the Iranians is the most dangerous of all: to unleash the Lebanon-based Hezbollah terror group on Israel. Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah isn't interested in doing this, but as long as Iran funds most of his budget, he'll have a hard time refusing.
In the meantime, Israel can only watch this drama unfold, but it could take two steps to prevent unnecessary violence. First, it could be generous and come to an agreement with Hamas on Gaza, which would help the latter avoid a flare up initiated by Islamic Jihad. Second, Israel could reach an agreement with Lebanon about the maritime border between the countries, and thus undercut Nasrallah's pretext of attacking Israel in "the Lebanese national interests."
*Major General (res.) Giora Eiland is the former head of the Israeli National Security Council and the IDF's Strategic Planning