LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 29/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
The end of enemies of the cross is
destruction; their god is the belly; and their glory is in their shame; their
minds are set on earthly things
Letter to the Philippians 03/13-21:”Beloved, I do not consider that I have made
it my own; but this one thing I do: forgetting what lies behind and straining
forward to what lies ahead, I press on towards the goal for the prize of the
heavenly call of God in Christ Jesus. Let those of us then who are mature be of
the same mind; and if you think differently about anything, this too God will
reveal to you. Only let us hold fast to what we have attained. Brothers and
sisters, join in imitating me, and observe those who live according to the
example you have in us. For many live as enemies of the cross of Christ; I have
often told you of them, and now I tell you even with tears. Their end is
destruction; their god is the belly; and their glory is in their shame; their
minds are set on earthly things. But our citizenship is in heaven, and it is
from there that we are expecting a Saviour, the Lord Jesus Christ. He will
transform the body of our humiliation so that it may be conformed to the body of
his glory, by the power that also enables him to make all things subject to
himself.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war
fears in Israel
Aoun meets Del Col, says Lebanon will request UNIFIL's mandate renewal without
modification
Aoun talks economic situation with delegation of British financial institutions
Aoun signs decrees promoting military officers
Army commander meets Gharib, Syrian ambassador
Fransabank reaps first rank in 'BDL Banks Basketball League 2019' for fourth
year in a row
Two New Lebanese Judges Referred to Disciplinary Board
Sources: Saving Lebanon’s Presidential Settlement Requires Nationwide Dialogue
Report: Moody’s ‘Analytical’ Report Didn’t Classify Lebanon
Report: US-Mediated Border Talks ‘Did Not Fail,’ Satterfield in Beirut Tuesday
STL Head of Defense Office Concludes a Working Visit to Lebanon
Shamsi Says UAE Keen on Stability of Lebanon, Honors Press Syndicate
Report: Qatar ‘Invests’ in Lebanese Debt
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel Pledges to Resist in the Era of Surrender, Remain
Upright Among Crooks
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on June 28-29/2019
Iran: Not Enough Progress at Vienna Talks to Stop Our Process
Iran, Nuclear Deal Partners to Meet as Accord under Threat
Trade, climate change threaten G20 accord
G20 Leaders Facing Calls to Protect Growth, Open Trade
Protesters Storm Bahraini Embassy in Iraqi Capital Baghdad
Israeli Diplomat: Trump’s Era is a Historic Opportunity We Must Exploit
Israel: Barak Returns to Politics as Survey Shows Netanyahu Defeat
Sources: Syria Envoy Makes ‘Partial Breakthrough’ in Constitutional Committee
HRW: Syria Regime Co-opting Aid to Entrench Repressive Policies
Palestinian-Israeli Meeting Fails to Resolve Tax Funds Crisis
Yemeni VP: Hadi Said to Deal Positively with Lollesgaard
UN: Average of Nearly 1 Migrant Child Death Daily Since 2014
Saudi Crown Prince Meets World Leaders at G20 Summit
Armed Movements Negotiate With Parties to the Conflict in Sudan's Crisis
Libyan National Army Launches Counteroffensive to Recapture Gharyan
No 'Power Vacuum' in Tunisia despite President's Illness, Says Advisor
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war
fears in Israel/DEBKAfile/June 28/2019
Why Iran’s Aggression Won’t Succeed/James Phillips/Michael Johns Jr./ The Daily
Signal/June 28/2019
Analysis/Why Trump May End Up Calling Rohani ‘Dear Friend’ After All
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/2019
Inside Intelligence: Israel-Egypt Coperation Key To Beating Back ISIS In Sinai/Yonah
Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
Are Military Options Available For Trump To End Iranian Nuclear Threat?/Eric
R.Mandel/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
What Is Trump Up to in Iran?/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg View/June 28/2019
The 'Cat-And-Mouse' World of the Ayatollah/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June
28/2019
UN Global Compact: What Happens Next?/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June
28, 2019
Economics a greater threat to Erdogan than politics/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab
News/June 28, 2019
Before Israel is dragged into a U.S.-Iran war/Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/June 29/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on June 28-29/2019
Failed US cyber strike on Shiite rocket control systems in Lebanon stirs war
fears in Israel
دموقع دبيكا فيل الإسرائيلي: فشل الهجوم الكتروني السيبري الأميركي على اجهزة
التحكم بصواريخ كتائب حزب الله العراقي المنصوبة في لبنان يثير الخوف من الحرب في
إسرائيل
DEBKAfile/June 28/2019
المنسقية: التقرير في أسفل الذي نشره اليوم موقع دبيكا فايل الإسرائيلي يتحدث عن
هجموم الأكتروني سيبيري نفذته وحدة أميركية متخصصة في هذا المجال بتاريخ 23 من
الشهر الجاري على أجهزة تحكم ومنصات لإطلاق الصواريخ تابعة لكتائب حزب الله
العراقية وهي منصوبة في لبنان وتتبع مباشرة للجنرال الإيراني قاسم سليمان. التقرير
يفيد بأن نتيجة الهجوم لم تكن ناجحة وبأن هذا الأمر أثار مخاوف في إسرائيل من عواقب
أي حرب قادمة تشنها الأذرع الإيرانية على إسرائيل من لبنان.
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76210/%d8%af%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d8%af%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%85/
The US Cyber Command on Sunday, June 23, conducted a cyberattack
on the Lebanon-based logistical command centers of the Iraqi Shiite Kata’ib
Hezbollah militia, one of Tehran’s key proxies. Not much is known about this
first US strike of this kind in Lebanon on a militia allied with the local
Hizballah. Deferring directly to Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the
Kata’ib’s troops fight for Iran in Iraq and Syria.
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that this Iraqi Shiite militia has for the
past two years been busy establishing a command and control center in Lebanon,
for attachment to Hizballah’s general staff. Both have readied themselves for
the intake of combat forces from Iraq and Syria in a Hizballah war against
Israel. The Iraqi militia has been assigned sectors and set up positions along
the Lebanese Israeli border.
According to some Middle East intelligence sources, the US cyberattack
specifically targeted the communications networks that link Kata’ib Hezballah’s
rocket commands to its launchers. This was a test to find out whether a
cyberattack could disable Hizballah rocket attacks on Israel.
No word on the attack has come from Iraqi militia or its host and ally Hizballah.
However, some Middle East military sources claim that the American operation
failed to achieve its objective,which was to incapacitate the militia’s command
and communications rocket system.
Since the US has wrapped the operation in total security, it is hard to
ascertain whether it was a total failure or managed to disable parts of the
targeted system.
Even partial success has set alarm bells ringing in Israel. The US cyber
warriors went into action straight after the IDF staged a comprehensive war game
against Hizballah.
The drill practiced IDF special forces taking the war over to enemy oil after a
large-scale Hizballah attack and takeover of Israeli territory, that was carried
out in reprisal for US sanctions against Iran.
The US Cyber Command hoped to set the pattern for aiding Israel by crippling the
Iranian proxies’ ability to subject Israel to a massive rocket barrage.
If the US operation against the Iraqi militia missed its mark, it would indicate
that Iran and Hizballah have acquired superior systems for countering hostile
cyberattack.
Aoun meets Del Col, says Lebanon will request UNIFIL's
mandate renewal without modification
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, on Friday welcomed at Baabda palace
UNIFIL Commander, General Stefano Del Col.
Prseident Aoun informed General Del Col that Lebanon will officially request the
United Nations to extend the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
without any modification. President Aoun stressed that it is in the interest of
all parties to maintain security and stability on the southern border.
Aoun noted that the existing cooperation between the Lebanese army and UNIFIL
forces has consecrated security and stability on the southern border, stressing
that it is in everyone's interest to maintain this stability, especially amidst
the the turbulant atmosphere of the regional situation.
General Del Col discussed with President Aoun the situation in the south of the
country and ongoing contacts for the demarcation of borders and the role of the
United Nations in this regard. Del Col hailed the role played by the Lebanese
army alongside UNIFIL in the implementation of resolution 1701 and the ongoing
preparations for the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate. On the other hand, Aoun met
with a delegation of the Morgan Stanley Bank, headed by Ralph Al-Raheb,
accompanied by a number of "Eurobond" investors, who expressed interest in the
economic and financial situation in Lebanon.
The delegation inquired about the measures and steps taken by the Lebanese
government to activate the plan of economic recovery and reforms after the
endorsement of the draft state budget 2019.
Aoun talks economic situation with delegation of British financial institutions
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Friday received at Baabda
Palace a delegation of British financial and investment institutions and the
American Morgan Stanley Bank. Discussions reportedly touched on the current
economic situation in the country.
Aoun signs decrees promoting military officers
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Friday has signed the
officers' promotion decrees of the army, Internal Security Forces (ISF), General
Security and State Security. The decrees, dated June 22, 2019, bear the
following numbers: 5080, 5081, 5082, 5083, 5804, 5085 and 5086.
Army commander meets Gharib, Syrian ambassador
Fri 28 Jun 2019
NNA - Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday received at his Yarzeh
office, Minister of State for Displaced Affairs Saleh Al-Gharib. Maj. Gen. Aoun
also met with Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon, Abdel Karim Ali, with talks
reportedly touching on various affairs.
Fransabank reaps first rank in 'BDL Banks Basketball League
2019' for fourth year in a row
NNA - Fri 28 Jun 2019
For the Fourth year in a row, Fransabank won in "BDL Banks Basketball League"
held by Sports Mania, and under the supervision of the Lebanese Basketball
Federation after winning the final game against BLOM BANK(74 - 57) at the
stadium of Michel El Murr Bauchrieh.
The tournament was held under the patronage of the Governor of the Central Bank
Riad Salameh, and attended by Head of Human Resources Department Rania Jamal,
Head of Branch Network Division Antoine Zarifeh, Head of Consumer Banking &
Alternative Channels Department Elie Semaan, and a group of Fransabank's
employees.
Fransabank team was crowned with the following titles:
" Best Leadership Award received by Afif Nohra
" Best Coach Award received by Rizkallah Zaloum
" Best 3 points shooter Award received by Rabih Hachoum
" MVP (Most Valuable Player) of the Tournament Award received by Joe Mansour
Fransabank won the BDL Banks Basketball League in 2016 against Credit Libanais
Bank (78-60), in 2017 against BLOM Bank (76-65) and in 2018 against Credit
Libanais (69-61)
At the end of the game, cups and medals were distributed to the winners.
Celebrating their championship, the team met Chairmen Messrs. Adnan and Adel
Kassar at the Bank's Headquarters in Hamra and presented the trophy to them. In
view of Fransabank's vision and mission, Chairmen Kassar expressed their pride
in the Bank's family that demonstrates a strong commitment to team bonding
ethics, promoting a sense of belonging - one of the Bank's core values. It is
worth noting that Fransabank basketball team - which played in Dubai in 2017 and
then in Serbia in 2018 - will be participating in an international competition
that will take place in Netherland by the end of 2019, organized by Sports
Mania.
Two New Lebanese Judges Referred to Disciplinary Board
Beirut - Youssef Diabsharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The Judicial Inspection Commission in Lebanon referred on Thursday two new
judges to the Disciplinary Board following investigations in line with measures
to fight corruption in the judicial body. Justice Minister Albert Serhan
recommended on Thursday that the two judges be suspended from work until a
decision is made on their status. Until now, a total of 7 judges have been
referred by Serhan to the Disciplinary Board upon the recommendation of the
Judicial Inspection Commission. Last April, Serhan had also referred three
judges and several court employees to the Disciplinary Board as part of reform
efforts.
Informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that one of the two judges referred to the
Disciplinary Board on Thursday holds a sensitive post in Beirut, while the other
works at the Justice Palace in Zahleh, in the Beqaa. The sources said that
as a result of the follow-up investigations conducted by the Judicial Inspection
Commission, the Commission issued a decision for the referral of two judges to
the Disciplinary Board of Judges. Investigations were launched two months ago
after reports showed that the two judges were using their posts to influence the
course of judicial files. A high-ranking judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat
that this procedure does not negatively affect the performance and the
reputation of the judicial body. “Prosecutions against some judges come as part
of the self-purification and it affects a small number of judges while the
majority of the judicial body operate in total transparency, objectivity and
honesty,” the source said, refusing to speak about a “corrupted judiciary.” The
sources said that a decision is about to be issued concerning investigations
conducted with the five judges, who were previously referred to the Disciplinary
Board.
Sources: Saving Lebanon’s Presidential Settlement Requires
Nationwide Dialogue
Beirut - Mohammed Shukeir/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The political settlement that led to the election of General Michel Aoun as
president is in urgent need of a lever to save it from collapsing, according to
well-informed ministerial sources. The sources said only a nationwide dialogue
launched by Aoun and involving key parties in the government could restore the
political equation. The ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
settlement forged by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Aoun ended the presidential
vacuum and paved the way for the revival of constitutional institutions. “Today,
there is an urgent need for a presidential initiative to launch an open
dialogue, as the only means to resolve disputes and address concerns threatening
political stability,” the sources underlined. “Neither economic stability nor
administrative or financial reform could be achieved without providing a
political safety net for the country to recover from its economic and social
crises,” they added.
The sources also said that the election of Aoun as president came after his
understanding with Hariri on a set of issues that were supposed to move the
country to a new political stage and end the disruptions that have been behind
the extension of the presidential vacuum. That in addition to his agreement with
the Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, known as the Maarab Declaration.
“But this Declaration is now shaking because of the political coup led by the
head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who
disregarded the broad lines contained in it, out of his intention to present
himself as the most powerful representative of Christians on the one hand; and
his attempts to monopolize the Christian quota in State appointments on the
other,” the sources explained. The ministerial sources said that the protection
of the settlement “depends first and foremost on Aoun, who has to intervene to
curb Bassil’s attempts to benefit from his influence within State institutions
and to monopolize the Christian street.”“It is not in the interest of Aoun to
weaken Hariri, because the imbalance will automatically affect the settlement,
which was not properly implemented due to… the insistence of the foreign
minister to act as the final commander,” they emphasized.
Report: Moody’s ‘Analytical’ Report Didn’t Classify Lebanon
Naharnet/June 28.2019
After Moody’s Investor Service report that Lebanon risks debt rescheduling
despite budget, it has been noted that the report was rather “analytical” and
did not classify the country, al-Joumhouria daily said on Friday. Financial
sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told the daily: “Moody's report is
rather analytical and did not credit rate Lebanon. Rating will take place over
the next two months by Moody's and Fitch Ratings during a planned visit to
Lebanon to assess the economic and financial situation and publish the credit
opinion on the 2018 results, and on the draft budget for 2019.
“Standard & Poor's (Financial services company) will review the rating in
August,” they said. According to Moody's, the ratio of public debt to Lebanon's
GDP is the highest in comparison with the countries that have been classified.
The interest rate of total revenues is 46.9%, the highest percentage of all
countries, despite the austerity measure taken by the government to control the
state of public finances in the draft budget. Moody's said the slowing capital
inflows and weak deposit growth, increases the risk of a government response
that will include a debt rescheduling or another liability management exercise
that may constitute a default. In the context, a banking expert told the daily
that the financial and economic situation of Lebanon “is critical.” However, he
stressed that “restructuring public debt or default is unlikely despite all the
data.” “The use of these terms is not accurate at this stage,” he said. "The
majority of foreign debt to Lebanon is borne by Lebanese banks and some parties,
as opposed to 15% of non-Lebanese parties,” he added.Moody's is likely to raise
Lebanon's credit rating if the government is likely to take debt management
measures in the next few years, according to the newspaper.
Report: US-Mediated Border Talks ‘Did Not Fail,’
Satterfield in Beirut Tuesday
Naharnet/June 28.2019
U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield is expected in Beirut
on Tuesday to resume talks on the demarcation of maritime and land border
between Lebanon and Israel, thwarting doubts the talks have faltered, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Friday. Satterfield is scheduled to meet with Speaker Nabih
Berri to convey the “Isreali response on the suggestions made by Lebanon in that
regard,” said the daily. In light of the Lebanese proposals, it is decided that
negotiations between the two sides will be scheduled at the UNIFIL headquarters
in Naqoura, under the auspices of the United Nations, and in the presence of a
representative of the American mediator, said the daily. Al-Joumhouria said that
Satterfield’s return “brings to a halt the doubts raised recently about the
success of Satterfield's mission, especially after he postponed a scheduled
visit to Beirut coming from Israel two weeks ago.”Israel's energy minister
earlier said his country had agreed to enter US-mediated talks with Lebanon on
maritime borders that would have an impact on offshore oil and gas exploration.
Last year, Lebanon signed its first contract to drill for oil and gas in its
waters, including for a block disputed by its southern neighbour Israel, with
which it has fought several wars. A consortium composed of energy giants Total,
Eni and Novatek was awarded two of Lebanon's 10 exploration blocks last year. It
is set to start drilling in block 4 in December, and later in the disputed block
9. Last year, Total said it was aware of the border dispute in less than eight
percent of block 9 and said it would drill away from that area. In April,
Lebanon invited international consortia to bid for five more blocks, which
include two also adjacent to Israel's waters. Israel also produces natural gas
from reserves off its coast in the Mediterranean. Israel and Lebanon are still
technically at war, although the last Israeli troops withdrew from southern
Lebanon in 2000 after two decades of occupation.
STL Head of Defense Office Concludes a Working Visit to Lebanon
Naharnet/June 28.2019
The Head of Defense Office of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), Dorothée
Le Fraper du Hellen, concluded yesterday an official visit to Lebanon, the STL
media office said in a press release. She met amongst others the Minister of
Justice, Albert Serhan, the Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Salim
Jreissati, the Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Raya el-Hasan, and
the Minister of Telecommunications, Mohammed Choucair. Le Fraper du Hellen also
had talks with members of the diplomatic community based in Beirut. During the
visit, Le Fraper du Hellen discussed with her interlocutors the role of the
Defense at the Tribunal in the Ayyash et al. case (STL 11-01). As part of this
visit, the Defense Office, with the support of the Beirut and Tripoli Bar
Associations, organised a conference at the Maison de l’Avocat in Beirut and a
practical workshop for lawyers from those Bar Associations.
The conference, on the topic of “Digital and Telecommunications Evidence in
National and International Criminal Trials”, was held on 26 June. The keynote
speech was given by Ibrahim Najjar, Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Law and
Political Science at Saint Joseph University, a lawyer and former Minister of
Justice. The practical workshop on 27 June, which was more specifically intended
for lawyers, focused on the subject of “The Work of the Defense in International
Criminal Trials”. It was facilitated by two members of the Defense Office and
two Defense Counsel practicing at the STL.
The visit by the Head of Defense Office also provided an opportunity to present
the Arabic version of the “Practitioner’s Handbook on Defense Investigations in
International Criminal Trials”.On behalf of the Defense Office, du Hellen would
like to thank all those who contributed to the success of this visit.
Shamsi Says UAE Keen on Stability of Lebanon, Honors Press Syndicate
Naharnet/June 28.2019
The Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to Lebanon, Hamad Al-Shamsi,
underlined mutual interests between Lebanon and the UAE, noting firm political
relations between the two countries, the National News Agency said on Friday.
“The UAE is a loving country for Lebanon and history attests to this
relationship,” said Shamsi, in remarks during a gathering honoring the new
council of the Association of Lebanese Press Editors at his home in Yarzeh.
Underlining the mutual interest between the two “brotherly” countries, he said:
“We have been supporting the military and security services for years, and in
terms of our relationship with editors, journalists and media professionals,
communication has been going on since my appointment," the ambassador said. "We
try to convey the true picture of the UAE, and try to hear and read in the
Lebanese press what contributes to the stability of countries. This is due to
your wisdom and your knowledge in the light of regional and international
changes,” he added. "We only intervene in Lebanon through positive messages in
support of the stability of the country," Shamsi added.
Report: Qatar ‘Invests’ in Lebanese Debt
Naharnet/June 28.2019
Qatar has reportedly bought Lebanese treasury bonds in a planned investment in
Lebanese debt, Bloomberg News Agency said. Quoting a Qatari government official
who declined to be named because the information is not public, he said: “Qatar
is committed to its pledge towards Lebanon and has bought treasury bonds in a
planned $500 million investment in Lebanese debt.”The Qatari official said his
country intends to make the rest of the investment aid it had pledged to Lebanon
in January, without giving more details on the time-line, according to the
agency.
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel Pledges to Resist in the Era of
Surrender, Remain Upright Among Crooks
Kataeb.org/June 27/2019
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Thursday blasted all the empty talks, deceptive
slogans, and illusive heroism that have been prevailing recently over the
political landscape, warning that Lebanon is being "systematically destroyed"
under sectarian slogans. “We say to those who pretend to be loyal to the nation
that the Kataeb has left you all the slogans, because whenever real actions are
needed you won't find anyone present other than our party,” Gemayel said during
a swearing-in ceremony held by the Kataeb's Metn sector for new party members.
“They got all the slogans and outbidding, while we are the ones who make the
actions and sacrifices," Gemayel stressed. "Unfortunately, there are people who
are believing the deceptive slogans that politicians are mastering nowadays,” he
added. Gemayel said that the Christian community is being exploited to justify
failures and concessions, adding that some are proclaiming triump which is far
from being real. “It is not an act of strength to reach power thanks to
non-state arms, and to garner gains thanks to deals and settlements. It's not an
act of strength to achieve triumphs at the expense of one's constants and
principles. It's not an act of strength to fulfill one's ambitions to the
detriment of the citizens' welfare as well as the nation's independence and
sovereignty,” Gemayel stated. “They are destroying the state under the pretext
of defending the Christians' rights; the state that is the sole guarantor of the
Christians who made tremendous sacrifices to build and protect." “The
Christians' rights are not safeguarded by relinquishing the state-building
project, but by establishing a state of law where Muslims and Christians are
equal in a free, sovereign and independent state where the law is respected,” he
said. “Christians are not defended by adopting a dictatorial approach similar to
that of Bachar Assad, but rather by applying ethics and morals because a true
Christian only lives by them,” he emphasized.
Gemayel outlined the deception that the ruling authority is constantly adopting,
deeming everything that is being witnessed as fake. “All their conflicts are
deceptive; they agree one day and disagree the other, without us knowing the
reason behind their convergences and divergences,” he pointed out.
“What is happening in the Parliament is a farce. The same political forces that
approved the budget in the government are now objecting to it in the
Parliament,” the Kataeb leader condemned. Gemayel stressed that the Kataeb is
not a conventional party as it has been nurtured at the hands of its founder who
set the guidelines for good citizenship. "An upright citizen has one duty, which
is to challenge injustice,” he noted. “It is our duty to stand against those
trying to take over the country, its sovereignty and its people,” he affirmed.
“It is our duty to oppose those trying to seize the people’s money and to thwart
any project that might harm the health of the citizens."“It is our duty to
confront those building castles with the money of honorable people,” he stated.
“It is our duty to defend Lebanon and stand against those trying to occupy it;
our cause consists in lifting oppression off the people and that won’t stop
until we build the country that we dream of,” he highlighted. “The Kataeb party
promises the Lebanese to keep on believing in this country and shielding it from
the dishonest,” he assured. Gemayel pledged to keep on resisting in the era of
surrender and to remain upright among the crooks. “We pledge that the Kataeb
will never become a typical political party whose only aim is to reach power at
the expense of values." “Our goal is to build a country that rises up to the
aspirations and ambitions of its youth,” he said. “Comrades, you are joining a
long path of struggle and sacrifices for the sake of Lebanon. You are joining a
party that does not back down, yield or compromise its values; a party that
resists and doesn't fear anything, a party that is loyal to Lebanon regardless
of the hardships,” Gemayel stressed in his address to the sworn-in Kataeb
members.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
June 28-29/2019
Iran: Not Enough Progress at Vienna Talks to
Stop Our Process
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Iran said on Friday that progress was made at talks in Vienna to save its
nuclear accord with world powers, however, it was probably not enough to
convince Tehran to change its decision to go over the deal’s core atomic
restrictions one by one, Iran’s envoy to the talks said. Iran’s Deputy Foreign
Minister Abbas Araqchi was speaking after almost four hours of talks with senior
diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. “It was a step
forward, but it is still not enough and not meeting Iran’s expectations,”
Araqchi told reporters. “I don’t think the progress made today will be enough to
stop our process but the decision will made in Tehran.”He said the Europeans had
told the meeting that the Instex trade mechanism had been made operational, with
the first transactions already processed, but that this was still insufficient
because European countries were not buying Iranian oil, the key demand for it to
stay in the 2015 nuclear deal. “For Instex to be useful for Iran, Europeans need
to buy oil or consider credit lines for this mechanism otherwise Instex is not
like they or us expect,” he said. Instex had now been widened to include more
European countries beyond France, Britain and Germany, known as the E3, Araqchi
said. A European diplomat confirmed that the mechanism was now operational but
the E3 have yet to make an official announcement. In a joint statement earlier
on Friday, Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and
Sweden, said they were working with the E3 to develop trade mechanisms. Araqchi
said all the parties in Vienna had agreed to hold a ministerial meeting “very
soon”. President Donald Trump last year pulled the United States out of the
multinational deal under which sanctions on Iran were lifted in return for curbs
on its nuclear program, verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Washington has since re-imposed tough sanctions on Iran, aiming to cut Tehran’s
oil sales to zero to force it to negotiate a broader deal that would also cover
its ballistic missile capabilities and regional influence.
Iran, Nuclear Deal Partners to Meet as Accord under Threat
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Senior officials from Iran and the remaining signatories to its 2015 nuclear
deal with world powers are gathering Friday as tensions in the Persian Gulf
simmer and Tehran is poised to surpass a uranium stockpile threshold, posing a
threat to the accord. At the heart of the meeting in Vienna is Iran's desire for
European countries to deliver on promises of financial relief from U.S.
sanctions. Iran is insisting that it wants to save the agreement and has urged
the Europeans to start buying Iranian oil or give Iran a credit line to keep the
accord alive.The regular quarterly meeting of the accord's so-called joint
commission, which brings together senior officials from Iran, France, Germany,
Britain, Russia, China and the European Union, is meant to discuss
implementation of the deal. The 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear
ambitions in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. The United States
withdrew from the accord last year and has imposed new sanctions on Iran to
cripple its economy, in hopes of forcing Tehran into negotiating a wider-ranging
deal. President Donald Trump said on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in
Japan that "there's no rush" to ease the tensions with Iran.
"There's absolutely no time pressure," he added. "I think that in the end,
hopefully, it's going to work out. If it does, great. And if doesn't, you'll be
hearing about it." Iran recently quadrupled its production of low-enriched
uranium. It previously said it would surpass a 300-kilogram stockpile limit set
by the accord by Thursday, but an Iranian official said that it was 2.8
kilograms below that limit Wednesday and there would be no new assessment until
"after the weekend." It is currently a holiday weekend in Iran.
European countries are pressing for Iran to comply in full with the accord,
though they have not specified what the consequences would be of failing to do
so. But Iranian officials maintain that even if it surpasses the limit, it would
not be breaching the deal, and say such a move could be reversed quickly.The
Europeans also face a July 7 deadline set by Tehran to offer long-promised
relief from U.S. sanctions, or Iran says it will also begin enriching its
uranium closer to weapons-grade levels.
On Thursday, Iranian state television reported that Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif sent a letter urging European signatories to the accord to implement
their commitments, saying Iran's next steps depend on that. Britain, France and
Germany are finalizing a complicated barter-type system known as INSTEX to
maintain trade with Iran and avoid U.S. sanctions, as part of efforts to keep
the nuclear deal afloat. It would help ensure trade between Iran and Europe by
allowing buyers and sellers to exchange money without relying on the usual
cross-border financial transactions. Tensions have been rising in the Middle
East. Citing unspecified Iranian threats, the U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier
to the region and deployed additional troops alongside the tens of thousands
already there. The U.S. has been worried about international shipping through
the Strait of Hormuz since tankers were damaged in May and June in what
Washington has blamed on limpet mines from Iran, although Tehran denies any
involvement. Last week, Iran shot down a U.S. Navy surveillance drone, saying it
violated its territory; Washington said it was in international airspace. On
Thursday, U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook met with top European
diplomats in Paris. He told The Associated Press that he wants them to get
tougher on Iran, instead of clinging to the nuclear deal. War with Iran is "not
necessary," Hook said.
"We are not looking for any conflict in the region," he said. But if the U.S. is
attacked, "we will respond with military force." The U.S. is trying to drum up
support for an international naval force in the Persian Gulf, notably to protect
shipping. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Trump Friday on the sidelines of
the G-20 summit. She said they discussed Iran "and the question of how we can
get into a negotiating process, which I advocated very strongly." Chinese
President Xi Jinping, also attending the summit, said that the Gulf region
stands "at a crossroads of war and peace," news agency Xinhua and state
broadcaster CCTV reported. "China always stands on the side of peace and opposes
war," Xi said, calling on all sides to remain calm, exercise restraint and
promote dialogue. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world can't
afford a conflict. He said it was "essential to de-escalate the situation" and
avoid confrontation.
Trade, climate change threaten G20 accord
Arab News/June 28, 2019
OSAKA: The opening day of the 2019 G20 summit of world leaders closed without
the turbulence many had predicted, but there was still concern that tensions
over trade and climate change could derail the newfound cordiality on day two.
US President Donald Trump — around whom many of the forecasts of antagonism had
swirled — seemed in lighthearted mood, and was even able to joke with his
Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about alleged Russian meddling in US
elections. There was an outbreak of cordiality, too, between Trump and the
Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, with the latter unveiling a list of
Japanese investments in the US, as well as a jovial “family photograph”
gathering in which Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman figured
prominently.The crown prince had a prominent position alongside Trump at the
first discussion session between the leaders, focusing on data technology. Saudi
Arabia joined other G20 countries in signing the “Osaka declaration” calling for
“effective use” of data to promote economic growth. A bilateral meeting is
expected today between the crown prince and the US leader to discuss the issue
of Iran.
The Saudi leader is due to have private meetings with several other G20 leaders
at the event, people close to the Saudi delegation said. Saudi Arabia is also
preparing to take over the G20 baton from Japan after being awarded the right to
stage the summit in Riyadh next year.
In a briefing after the first day of the summit, the international spokesman for
Japan’s G20 presidency, Takeshi Osuga, said that progress had been made in
closed-door sessions on trade. Leaders had agreed that trade disputes presented
a risk to the global economy and recognized the need to reform the
dispute-settlement mechanisms of the World Trade Organization. He said there had
been “no notable dissent” on climate change. “The sherpas (advisers to the
leaders) are working hard at a good outcome document and we’ll see it tomorrow,”
Osuga added, referring to the end-of-summit communique that traditionally closes
the G20 and is intended to show the leaders’ unity.
But observers cautioned against reading too much into the first day’s gathering
of the most powerful leaders in the world when many of the potentially
troublesome meetings are due to take place on Saturday, including the
long-awaited face-to-face between Trump and President Xi Jinping of China on the
thorny subject of trade hostilities between the two biggest economies. There
were hints of tensions below the surface in early comments by Xi and EU leaders.
The Chinese president warned of the dangers of protectionism in world trade —
one of Trump’s most often used tactics — which he said was endangering the
global commercial system. “All this is destroying the global trade order. This
also affects the common interests of our countries, and overshadows peace and
stability worldwide,” he said. Chinese concern was echoed by the Japanese
leader, who had been the target of barbed tweets by Trump over security. “I
harbor great concern about the current situation on global trade.The world is
watching the direction at which we are going. Now is the time we communicate a
strong message for the maintenance and strengthening of a free, fair and
non-discriminatory trading system,” Abe said.
European leaders also seemed at odds with Trump on other issues. Emmanuel
Macron, president of France, indicated that he will refuse to sign the joint
communique if it fails to match his ambitions on reducing climate change. “If we
do not talk about the Paris accord and if, in order to reach agreement among the
20 in the room, we are not able to defend climate ambitions, it will be without
France,” he said before arriving in Osaka. However, these tensions did not
figure highly on the opening day of the 2019 summit. A one-to-one televised
discussion between Putin and Trump even raised some amusement when the US
leader, answering a question about alleged Russian involvement in the 2016 poll,
wagged a finger at the Russian and told him: “Don’t meddle in elections.”
G20 Leaders Facing Calls to Protect Growth, Open Trade
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 28.2019
World leaders attending a Group of 20 summit in Japan that began Friday are
clashing over the values that have served for decades as the foundation of their
cooperation as they face calls to fend off threats to economic growth. "A free
and open economy is the basis for peace and prosperity," Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe told his counterparts in opening the two-day G-20 meeting that comes
as leaders grapple with profound tensions over trade, globalization and the
collapsing nuclear deal with Iran. While groups like the G-20 endeavor to forge
consensus on broad policy approaches and geopolitical issues, the rifts between
them run both shallow and deep. Defying Chinese warnings not to bring up the
issue of recent protests in Hong Kong, Abe cautioned Chinese President Xi
Jinping over Beijing's human rights record. In a meeting late Thursday, Abe told
Xi it is important for "a free and open Hong Kong to prosper under 'one country,
two systems' policy," Japanese officials said, referring to the arrangement for
the former British colony's autonomy when China took control in 1997. They said
Abe reminded Xi of the importance of guaranteeing freedom, human rights, the
"rule of law" and other universal values in raising concern over proposed Hong
Kong legislation that would allow some criminal suspects to be extradited for
trial in mainland China. The bill, now shelved, drew hundreds of thousands of
Hong Kong residents into the streets in protests. Xi is not the only leader
facing a pushback from his Western counterparts.
European Union Council President Donald Tusk blasted Russian President Vladimir
Putin for saying in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper that
liberalism was "obsolete" and conflicts with the "overwhelming majority" in many
countries. "We are here as Europeans also to firmly and unequivocally defend and
promote liberal democracy," Tusk told reporters. "What I find really obsolete
are: authoritarianism, personality cults, the rule of oligarchs. Even if
sometimes they may seem effective." Tusk told reporters that such comments
suggest a belief that "freedoms are obsolete, that the rule of law is obsolete
and that human rights are obsolete."
Putin praised U.S. President Donald Trump for his efforts to try to stop the
flow of migrants and drugs from Mexico and said that liberalism "presupposes
that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with
impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected."
Trump has at times found himself at odds with other leaders in such
international events, particularly on issues such as Iran, climate change and
trade. A planned meeting between Trump and the Chinese president on Saturday as
the G-20 meetings conclude has raised hopes for a detente in the tariffs war
between the world's two largest economies.
The two sides have levied billions of dollars' worth of tariffs on each other's
imports in a festering dispute over technology and the chronic Chinese trade
surplus. In a meeting with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Trump said he had
not promised to hold back on imposing new tariffs on China.
"I think it'll be productive," Trump said of his meeting with Xi. "We'll see
what happens tomorrow. It'll be a very exciting day I'm sure," he said. "It's
going to come out hopefully well for both countries."U.S. Trade Representative
Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross accompanied Trump to Osaka,
suggesting potential for some movement after 11 rounds of talks stalled in May.
But while prospects for detente in the trade war are in the spotlight, many
participating prefer a broader approach to tackling global crises.
"I am deeply concerned over the current global economic situation. The world is
paying attention to the direction we, the G-20 leaders, are moving toward," Abe
said. "We need to send strong message, which is to support and strengthen a
free, fair and indiscriminatory trade system."
A breakthrough is not assured. On Thursday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman
in Beijing reiterated that China is determined to defend itself against further
U.S. moves to penalize it over trade friction. China often has sought to gain
support for defending global trade agreements against Trump's "America First"
stance in gatherings like the G-20.
Abe has sought to make the Osaka summit a landmark for progress on environmental
issues, including climate change, on cooperation in developing new rules for the
"digital economy," such as devising fair ways to tax companies like Google and
Facebook, and on strengthening precautions against abuse of technologies such as
cyber-currencies to fund terrorism and other types of internet-related crimes.g
tensions between Iran and the U.S., U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said
the world can't afford the conflict and it was "essential to deescalate the
situation" and avoid confrontation. Iran is soon poised to surpass a key uranium
stockpile threshold, threatening the nuclear accord it reached with world powers
in 2015. Iran's moves come after Trump announced in May 2018 that he was pulling
the U.S. out of the deal and reimposing economic sanctions on Tehran. In a
letter to the leaders in Osaka, Guterres urged them to take action on equitable
and stable reforms to strengthen the global financial safety net and increase
the global economy's resilience. While there are good plans and vision, what's
needed are "accelerated actions, not more deliberations," he said. Fast and
equal economic growth should be constructed so that people who live in "the
'rust belts' of the world are not left behind," he said. The leaders of Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa, in a meeting on the G-20 sidelines,
called for joint efforts to stabilize international trade and oppose
protectionism. Putin, whose country faces an array of U.S. and EU sanctions,
said at the meeting that "international trade has suffered from protectionism,
politically motivated restrictions and barriers." Putin also emphasized the need
for BRICS nations to take coordinated action to help block sources of funding
for terrorist groups.
Protesters Storm Bahraini Embassy in Iraqi Capital Baghdad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Protesters stormed the Bahraini embassy compound in Baghdad Thursday night,
removing the flag from above the building and replacing it with a Palestinian
banner in protest against a conference held in the gulf nation to promote peace
between Arabs and Israelis. Bahrain's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack
saying the kingdom is calling back home its ambassador Salah Ali al-Maliki for
discussions. It added that Iraqi authorities have a responsibility to protect
the embassy in Baghdad. The attack on the embassy could affect relations between
Iraq and nearby gulf nations at a time when they have been improving in recent
months since Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi took office. It was believed
to have been carried out by supporters of Iran-backed Iraqi militias. The Iraqi
government issued a statement expressing "deep regret" over the attack and
vowing to "bring all saboteurs to justice." The statement said Iraqi security
forces took firm measures to force the protesters out of the embassy. Iraq's
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmad al-Sahhaf told The Associated Press that
Baghdad condemns the attack on the embassy adding that "Iraqi authorities will
go after those who took part of the attack as well as the instigators."
No one was hurt in the standoff that lasted more than an hour and later in the
night Iraqi security forces were in control of the area. Iraqi troops were
deployed around the compound in the late hours of Thursday.
An Iraqi security official said the protesters forced their way in by breaking
through the main gate but stayed in the garden without storming the offices
inside the compound. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line
with regulations, said security forces opened fire in the air to disperse the
protesters and reinforcements were sent to Bagdad's western neighborhood of
Mansour where the embassy is.
More than an hour later, the nearly 200 protesters, waving Iraqi and Palestinian
flags, dispersed. Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Saad Maan said
protection of diplomatic missions is a "red line." He added that 54 people have
been detained for taking part in the attack. Iraq's newly named Interior
Minister Yasssin al-Yassiri visited the compound around midnight and then held a
meeting with the Bahrain ambassador in a safe place outside the embassy. The
Bahraini diplomats were evacuated earlier from the compound into the heavily
fortified Green Zone that is home to the Iraqi government headquarters, after
the mission received threats, the official said. The two-day workshop in Bahrain
that ended Wednesday was to promote the Trump administration's $50 billion
economic support plan for the Palestinians ahead of a Mideast peace plan, widely
known as the Deal of the Century, to be announced later.
Several Arab countries boycotted the Bahrain conference including Lebanon and
Iraq as well as the Palestinian authority. Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh
Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa was criticized by some Arab and Iranian media
outlets for giving an interview to an Israeli TV station in which he said that
Palestinians made a mistake by boycotting the workshop. Saudi minister for Gulf
affairs Thamer al-Sabhan tweeted that "what is happening now at the Bahraini
embassy in Baghdad is very regrettable." Anwar Gargash, the United Arab Emirates
minister of state for foreign affairs, tweeted that the attack on the embassy is
"a major escalation on the legal and political levels." He called on the Iraqi
embassy to protect diplomatic missions in Iraq. Iraq is home to Iran-backed
militias and the embassy attack comes amid tensions between the United States
and Iran in the Middle East. Iraq has close relations with both Washington and
Tehran and has been trying to ease tensions between them. The crisis gripping
the Middle East stems from President Donald Trump's withdrawal of the United
States a year ago from the nuclear deal between Iran and other world powers and
then imposing crippling new sanctions on Tehran.
Israeli Diplomat: Trump’s Era is a Historic Opportunity We Must Exploit
Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Thursday with former US
Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who visited Tel Aviv along with her husband to
participate in the right-wing Israel Hayom forum. “The entire people of Israel
appreciate the extraordinary way that you represented our alliance between
America and Israel and the way you defended Israel and the truth in the UN,”
Netanyahu told Haley, as reported by local media. She responded by saying that
relations between her country and Israel were everlasting. Meanwhile, Michael
Oren, an Israeli diplomat and historian, called for better exploiting the era of
US President Donald Trump to achieve Israeli gains in several areas, mainly the
issue of Iran, the Palestinian cause, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas. “Trump is
the best US president in understanding Israel’s needs and place in the Western
world,” said Oren, who served as deputy foreign minister in the Netanyahu
government until a year ago. “He will remain in power for five and a half years,
perhaps only a year and a half, and Israel must better exploit this era of
history,” he added. When asked to give details, Oren said: “Hezbollah has a huge
stock of missiles, perhaps 130,000, stored inside houses in 200 Lebanese
villages. We can only defeat them with a fierce ground war, and we will need
huge quantities of ammunition. Do you think that we will get it if the US
president was Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? (Two Democratic presidential
candidates). If we enter into a war with Hamas, the world will come against us.
We must ensure that America stands with us fully.”He continued: “Today, we are
confronting Iran together with the United States, and we see how the US position
develops with the Palestinians. We must strive to get more gains.”
Israel: Barak Returns to Politics as Survey Shows Netanyahu
Defeat
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
A new Israeli survey showed for the very first time a clear possibility that
right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be defeated in upcoming general
elections, leaving his rival candidate, former general Benny Gantz, with the
task of forming a new government. The results coincided with former Prime
Minister Ehud Barak announcing his return to politics as the leader of a new
party in the upcoming September 17 polls. The survey, published by Channel 13,
showed that the Likud and the opposition Blue and White party would garner 32
seats apiece. The Joint List, an alliance of four Arab majority parties that ran
together in the 2015 elections, announced last week it would reunite for the
vote. The four parties, which ran on two separate slates in April’s elections,
currently have 10 seats between them and would have 12. Shas and United
Torah Judaism would each drop from eight seats to six, while the left-wing
Meretz would jump from four to six. Overall, the survey said the center-left and
Arab parties together would pick up 61 seats, while right-wing factions would
get 52. These results were the same as ones reached by secret surveys conducted
by Netanyahu’s office in the past weeks, prompting him to seek the cancellation
of the polls, but he failed. Barak’s decision to enter the political fray will
ignite the political battle as Gantz was coolly running his campaign against
Netanyahu. The former PM accused Gantz of running a “sleepy” opposition, saying
it should “wake up.”Directly addressing Gantz, he said that Israel was facing
the “threat of destruction and you are running a cold battle that people are
barely feeling.” Barak convened a press briefing Wednesday afternoon during
which he announced that he will establish a new party for the elections. "I have
known Netanyahu for more than 50 years. I have seen him in beautiful and painful
moments. Netanyahu is at the end of his path, and his closest associates,
including his colleagues in the faction and the government, know this. Most of
them are gripped by silence and fear. As your former commander, I say to you,
Netanyahu: You cannot continue to hold the steering wheel of leadership. Your
time as a political leader is over,” he said. "My brothers in arms… I tell you
that our rivalry is with Netanyahu and his way,” Barak stated.
Sources: Syria Envoy Makes ‘Partial Breakthrough’ in Constitutional Committee
New York, Geneva, Brussels - Ali Barada and Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June,
2019
United Nations Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen received, thanks to
Russia’s help, the Syrian regime’s approval on a suggestion to form the
long-awaited constitutional committee, tasked with drafting the post-war
constitution, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Thursday.
The UN envoy considers that such breakthrough should pave the way for a possible
deal to end the eight-year war in the country. As previously agreed, the
committee would be formed of three groups, each of 50 members: the first
representing the regime, the second representing the opposition and the third
representing the civil society, said the sources. However, the UN drive to set
up this committee has been bogged down in disagreements with Bashar Assad’s
regime on the makeup of the body. Damascus had asked to name six of the civil
society representatives taking part in the negotiations. However, the informed
sources said that after Moscow intervened, the Syrian authorities finally agreed
to name only two members of the group. “Such a development constitutes a partial
breakthrough,” the sources said, adding that the names should be revealed soon.
On Thursday, the United States said it was time to scrap the 17-month effort to
form the constitutional committee for Syria and come up with other diplomatic
initiatives to bring the country closer to peace. US acting Ambassador Jonathan
Cohen told the Security Council that progress toward forming the new body
remained "out of reach" and that the committee was unlikely to ever be formed.
"The time has come for the council to encourage special envoy Pedersen to try
other routes to achieving the political solution," Cohen told the council.
Meanwhile, chiefs of global humanitarian organizations warned on Thursday of a
“humanitarian nightmare” in Idlib, after launching a worldwide campaign in
solidarity with civilians under fire the northwestern province. The 11 chiefs
said 3 million civilians, among them 1 million children, are in imminent and
mortal danger from the escalating violence in Idlib and surrounding areas. In a
direct video address, the humanitarian leaders emphasized that civilians face
the constant threat of violence and armed conflict and desperately need
protection. They also deplored the devastating impact of the fighting on
hospitals, schools and markets. The regime had relaunched earlier this year an
offensive in the opposition-held northwest, killing more than 120 people and
forcing more than 150,000 to flee.
HRW: Syria Regime Co-opting Aid to Entrench Repressive Policies
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The Syrian regime is co-opting humanitarian aid and reconstruction assistance
and sometimes using it to "entrench repressive policies," said Human Rights
Watch on Friday, calling on donors and investors to ensure their contributions
are used for the good of the Syrian people. In the 91-page report released in
Geneva. HRW said the Syrian regime has developed a policy and legal framework to
divert "reconstruction resources to fund its atrocities, punish those perceived
as opponents, and benefit those loyal to it." Syria's civil war, now in its
ninth year, has killed some 400,000 people, wounded more than a million and
displaced half the country's population, including 5 million who fled as
refugees, mostly to neighboring countries. Large parts of the country are
totally destroyed and the regime estimates reconstruction will cost some $200
billion dollars and last 15 years. Many Syrians rely on aid to survive amid
poverty and lack of food and medicine in parts of the country that had a pre-war
population of 23 million. While seemingly benign, the Syrian regime’s aid and
reconstruction policies “are being used to punish perceived opponents and reward
its supporters," said Lama Fakih, acting Middle East director at Human Rights
Watch. The Syrian regime’s aid framework “undermines human rights, and donors
need to ensure they are not complicit in the government's human rights
violations," Fakih said. The report notes one case in which an unnamed UN agency
decided to partner with a local group founded by a member of the pro-regime
National Defense Forces — which the opposition blames for major atrocities — to
implement a project. HRW says despite warnings, the UN agency moved forward only
to discover six months later that the local partner never implemented the
project, despite receiving money from the UN. It also mentions, without giving
names, senior regime officials who own stakes in various businesses and are
known to fund "abusive entities," such as the NDF. The report warns investors
and donors that there is a risk to becoming involved in these sectors because
they might indirectly be working or funding abusive individuals or entities. "As
the number of international humanitarian organizations seeking to register and
transfer their operations to Damascus increases, the risk of a slippery slope is
increasingly significant," the report warned.The report found that in extreme
cases, reconstruction projects that rehabilitate infrastructure of "abusive”
regime agencies “can facilitate abuses by empowering them to continue forcibly
displacing, torturing, and arbitrarily detaining individuals."
Palestinian-Israeli Meeting Fails to Resolve Tax Funds Crisis
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
A new Palestinian-Israeli meeting has failed to end the Palestinian tax revenue
crisis. Palestinian Authority Minister of Civil Affairs and Fatah Central
Committee member Hussein al-Sheikh said ongoing talks with Israel about the
seizure of Palestinian deducted funds did not make any progress. “I met with the
Israeli Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon and Palestinian Minister of Finance
Shukri Bshara yesterday(Wednesday) and discussed means to solve the clearance
issue,” he tweeted. “We demanded that Israel release the funds,” he said. Their
meeting at the Israeli Ministry of Finance headquarters in Jerusalem was
attended by Coordinator of Government Activities in the Palestinian territories
Maj. Gen. Kamil Abu Rokon. Israeli sources said they only discussed economic
matters, explaining that it was one of a series of meetings that brought them
together in an attempt to reach a solution to the crisis. Israel wants to reach
a settlement in this matter in a way that would prevent the collapse of the PA.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kahlon have earlier discussed
emergency plans, should the PA’s financial system collapse over its refusal to
accept tax dividends collected by Israel. Israel has tried to transfer large
sums of money to the PA, which refuses to accept them without the deducted
amounts, leading to a critical financial crisis. Israel collects around $190
million a month in customs duties levied on goods destined for Palestinian
markets that transit through Israeli ports, and then it transfers the money to
the PA. In February, it decided to deduct around $10 million a month from those
revenues, corresponding to the amount it said the PA paid families of prisoners
or directly to inmates serving time in Israeli jails. Palestinians responded by
saying they would refuse any funds from which unilateral deductions had been
made.
Yemeni VP: Hadi Said to Deal Positively with Lollesgaard
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Yemeni Vice President confirmed Thursday that Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour
Hadi’s directives stipulate joint efforts among the government field team in
Hodeidah to ensure the success of head of the Redeployment Coordination
Committee’s (RCC) tasks.
Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar explained that these efforts shall ensure fixing any
imbalances and implementing the Hodeidah Accord as stipulated in the Stockholm
Agreement and in accordance with Yemeni law and relevant UN resolutions. His
remarks were made during his meeting on Thursday with Head of the Redeployment
Coordination Committee (RCC) and UN mission in support of the Hodeidah Agreement
(UNMHA) General Michael Lollesgaard in Riyadh. For his part, UN Special Envoy to
Yemen Martin Griffiths vowed Wednesday, during his meeting with Ahmar, to
implement directives of the UN Secretary-General and abide by the three
references to solve the Yemeni crisis. These references are represented by the
Gulf Cooperation Council initiative and its executive mechanism, outcomes of the
comprehensive national dialogue conference and UN resolution 2216. “I had very
productive meetings with Vice President Ali Mohsen. I was encouraged by the
openness and flexibility of the government of Yemen and its continued commitment
towards achieving peace,” Griffiths said. “I am determined to advance the peace
process based on the National Dialogue Outcome, the GCC initiative and relevant
security council resolutions and restart soonest possible consultations with the
parties,” he added. The Special Envoy reiterated the commitment of the United
Nations to continue working with the parties for a comprehensive Yemeni-led
peace agreement in Yemen and urged all parties to create a conducive environment
to make this a reality. Ahmar stressed the legitimate government’s keenness to
achieve peace and its adherence to the full implementation of the Stockholm
agreement, especially with regard to the actual withdrawal of Houthi militias
from Hodeidah’s city and ports and the completion of the prisoners and
detainees’ issue. He expressed Hadi’s appreciation for UN Secretary-General
Antonio Guterres’s positive response and his emphasis on the UN’s commitment to
the three recognized references.
UN: Average of Nearly 1 Migrant Child Death Daily Since 2014
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
The UN migration agency said migrant children have died or gone missing at the
rate of at least one per day worldwide over the past five years, with
treacherous journeys like those across the Mediterranean or the US-Mexico border
continuing to take lives. In its latest “Fatal Journeys” report, the
International Organization for Migration has released findings that some 1,600
children — some as young as 6 months old — are among the 32,000 people who have
perished in dangerous travels since 2014, the Associated Press (AP) reported.
The Mediterranean remains the most fatal crossing, with over 17,900 people dying
there; many on the hazardous trip between Libya and Italy. Meanwhile, 40
passengers on a German rescue ship, who were saved off Libya 16 days ago, are
still blocked offshore by Italy's refusal to let them disembark. According to
AP, two migrants have been evacuated from the ship overnight for medical
reasons.
Saudi Crown Prince Meets World Leaders at G20 Summit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Defense, held a series of talks on Friday with several world leaders on the
sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.He held separate meetings with each
of the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Singapore Lee
Hsien Loong and Queen Maxima of the Netherlands. Discussions focused on
bilateral ties and cooperation, reported the Saudi Press Agency.
Armed Movements Negotiate With Parties to the Conflict in Sudan's Crisis
Khartoum - Ahmed Youness/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Deputy Head of Sudan's Transitional Military Council Lieutenant General Mohammad
Hamdan Dagalo (Hamidati) and Sudan Liberation Army’s Leader Minni Arko Minnawi
are scheduled to hold the first meeting of its kind in the Chadian capital,
N'Djamena, according to Sudanese local newspapers. Hamidati announced early this
week releasing prisoners of the armed movements and forming a committee, led by
him, to negotiate with the armed rebel movements. Meanwhile, the Darfur-based
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Jibril Ibrahim, and the Sudan
Liberation Movement welcomed holding talks with the Transitional Military
Council. South Sudan’s capital, Juba, will also host an adverse meeting between
a delegation from the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF) and
Commander of Sudan People's Liberation Army/North Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, who called
for holding the talks, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. According to the sources,
Hilu is expected to propose a new initiative to deal with the Sudanese crisis,
and representatives of the DFCF will hand over their passports to the South
Sudanese Embassy in Khartoum and are expected to arrive in Juba on Saturday.
They pointed out that South Sudan’s government, which had also proposed an
initiative to resolve the conflict, is only hosting the meeting, without playing
any further role. Meanwhile, different parts of Sudan witnessed protests,
demonstrations and rallies calling for handing over the power to a civilian
government, and the DFCF took over a joint African-Ethiopian mediation
initiative. DFCF announced receiving a draft agreement submitted by the joint
African-Ethiopian mediation. “On 27 June, the DFCF received a draft for a
proposed agreement submitted by the joint African-Ethiopian mediation to agree
with the Military Council on the basis of the Declaration of Principles, it said
in brief statement on its Facebook page. It announced earlier that it has agreed
to the "Declaration of Principles" presented by the Ethiopian mediator Mahmoud
Dirar. “We are now reviewing the proposal submitted to decide in this regard,”
said DFCF, commenting on the draft.
Libyan National Army Launches Counteroffensive to Recapture Gharyan
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 June, 2019
Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) on Thursday took everyone by
surprise after it officially announced regaining full control over the strategic
northwestern Gharyan town, which is located some 80 km away from the capital,
Tripoli. Prior to the takeover, Gharyan served as headquarters to the Libyan
National Army (LNA) forces under the leadership of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
After losing its main forward base, the eastern-based LNA announced spearheading
a counterattack to retake the town. An LNA officer, who requested anonymity,
denied claims about GNA loyalists circling and zeroing in on LNA positions
northwest of the African state. “Pro-LNA troops were temporarily withdrawn from
Gharyan until further notice,” the sources said. On the other hand, the LNA
launched a counter-military campaign that acts across all fronts on the
outskirts of the capital Tripoli. This offensive is meant to regain control of
Gharyan. According to military sources, the LNA’S air forces launched a series
of air strikes targeting pro-GNA militias based in one of Gharyan’s camps. The
LNA media center later released a broadcast revealing that the strategic town
was taken over after GNA-tied militias succeeded in bribing a number of Gharyan-based
officers who turned coat and handed over the keys to the city. LNA spokesman
Ahmed al-Mismari, during a presser in Benghazi on Wednesday, said that the
battle for Gharyan “first started on Facebook before moving into the
battlefield.” Sleeper cells on the inside guaranteed pro-GNA militia advances,
he added. Mismari admitted that GNA forces had secured control over some parts
of the town without acknowledging that they had taken over the whole city. “Some
sleeper cells first attempted to destabilize the security of Mount Gharyan and
secured the progress of terrorist groups,” he reaffirmed, whilst stressing that
“the situation is still under control.” On the other hand, witnesses reported
that GNA loyalists took control of the LNA’s main operations room after pro-Haftar
troops left town. As for the GNA, the Presidential Council headed by Fayez al-Sarraj
issued a statement saying Gharyan was “completely liberated” and considered it
the first step towards thwarting a so-called coup attempt looking for a power
grab.'
No 'Power Vacuum' in Tunisia despite President's Illness,
Says Advisor
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28.2019
Tunisia is not at risk of a power vacuum despite the sudden hospitalisation of
President Beji Caid Essebsi, one of his advisors said Friday, describing veteran
leader's condition as stable. Essebsi, 92, was taken to hospital for a "serious
illness" on Thursday, the same day that twin suicide attacks claimed by the
Islamic State group killed a police officer in Tunis and wounded several other
people. "We have a president. There is no constitutional vacancy," one of his
key advisors, Noureddine Ben Ticha, told the Express FM radio station. He said
the president's condition was "unchanged". The Tunisian constitution, adopted
three years after the 2011 Arab Spring uprising that toppled longtime dictator
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, provides two measures in the case of a power vacuum.
The prime minister can take over the president's responsibilities for a period
of no more than 60 days, or if the vacancy is longer the speaker of parliament
is tasked with the role for up to 90 days. In both cases the decision must be
taken by the constitutional court after it validates the president's incapacity.
But eight years after the Arab Spring, Tunisia has yet to set up a
constitutional court. On Thursday parliament speaker Mohammed Ennaceur, 85, held
a meeting with the heads of parties following the twin suicide bombings and
Essebsi's illness.After his hospitalisation, another key advisor Firas Guefrech
had described the president as in "critical condition", and in a later tweet
said Essebsi was "stable". The president's son, Hafedh Caid Essebsi, said late
Thursday that there were "the beginnings of an improvement" in his father's
condition. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed said on Facebook he had paid a visit to
the ailing leader. "I would like to reassure Tunisians that the president is
receiving the necessary care," he said, warning people not to spread "false and
confusing information" after several media reported Essebsi's death. The
country's first democratically elected president, Essebsi came to power in 2014,
three years after the Arab Spring that sparked revolts and regime changes in
several countries in the region.
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 288-29/2019
Why Iran’s Aggression Won’t Succeed
James Phillips/Michael Johns Jr./ The Daily Signal/June 28/2019
President Donald Trump’s new round of sanctions against Iran is the latest salvo
in a wide-ranging effort to pressure the regime in Tehran. The goal is to halt
Iran’s exportation of terror and subversion and force Iran to accept tighter
restrictions on its nuclear program.
The sanctions announced Monday add to an already extensive set of punitive
economic measures and specifically target Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, and several top officials in his regime.
In addition to sanctioning the Office of the Supreme Leader, which is estimated
to control a global network of companies worth $100-$200 billion, the Treasury
Department sanctioned eight senior leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, including the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy, aerospace, and
ground forces.
The president imposed the new sanctions after canceling military strikes that he
had ordered against Revolutionary Guard missile batteries in retaliation for the
June 19 shoot-down of a U.S. Navy surveillance drone in international air space.
The sanctions signal the Trump administration’s determination to continue its
“maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Not surprisingly, the sanctions triggered howls of protest in Tehran. President
Hassan Rouhani denounced them as “outrageous and idiotic” and charged that the
White House “was afflicted by mental retardation.”
The spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the sanctions “[mean] closing the
doors of diplomacy by the U.S.”
Trump responded with a series of tweets on Tuesday, including:
Iran’s very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that
they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything American will be
met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean
obliteration. No more John Kerry & Obama!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 25, 2019
John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, blamed Iran for dragging its
feet on diplomacy:
The president has held the door open to real negotiations to completely and
verifiably eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons program, its pursuit of ballistic
missile delivery systems, its support for international terrorism, and other
malign behavior worldwide. All that Iran needs to do is to walk through that
open door.
Maximum Pressure vs. Maximum Blackmail
The slow-motion confrontation between Iran and the U.S. is dramatically
accelerating as the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign takes
effect, forcing Tehran to pay an increasingly painful price for its hostile
foreign policy and refusal to return to nuclear negotiations.
The World Bank estimates that Iran is on track for negative 4.5% real gross
domestic product growth—the second-worst projection in the world on a key metric
of economic health.
Iran’s inflation rate has risen sharply from about 10% in mid-2018 to about 52%
in April 2019, as the Iranian rial plummets in value and private spending
contracts.
Clearly, U.S. sanctions have had a devastating impact, even without European
support.
Extensive economic sanctions against Iran were initially announced in Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo’s first major policy speech, which was given at The
Heritage Foundation in May 2018.
The new policy, he promised, would impose “unprecedented financial pressure”
against Tehran unless it “halted its uranium enrichment program and hostile
regional policies.”
Unwilling to give up on either, Iran is now paying an escalating price for its
brazen commitment to fomenting instability and violence in the Middle East and
beyond. Now barred from export markets and the international banking system, the
mullahs are slowly being denied the resources they need to continue funding
essential parts of their dangerous agenda.
Tehran’s draft budget for 2019-2020 is evidence of a regime on the ropes: Among
its many austerity measures, the regime planned to implement a 28% cut in
funding to its military budget, including a 17% reduction for the Revolutionary
Guard, which the State Department rightly designated as a foreign terrorist
organization this April.
That’s a significant blow for the Revolutionary Guard, which is a core part of
Iran’s grand strategy, charged with acting as the sword and shield of Iran’s
Islamic revolution.
Iran’s Shadow War
The Revolutionary Guard carried out a series of attacks on oil tankers in the
Gulf of Oman over the past two months, attacks that are part of Iran’s policy of
pushing back against U.S. sanctions with veiled threats against Arab oil
exporters and the flow of gulf oil.
On May 12, four oil tankers carrying oil exports from Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates—two adversaries that stood to gain materially by providing
alternatives to Iranian oil—were sabotaged with limpet mines. After Washington
sanctioned Iran’s petrochemical exports, two petrochemical tankers carrying Arab
petrochemical exports were sabotaged with limpet mines on June 13, and
Revolutionary Guard personnel were videotaped removing an unexploded limpet mine
from the hull of one of the ships by a U.S. Navy helicopter.
To minimize the chances of further embarrassing revelations, the Revolutionary
Guard then shot down a U.S. Navy surveillance drone on June 19 and falsely
claimed it had strayed into Iranian air space.
The Revolutionary Guard’s low-intensity warfare is a calibrated,
semi-clandestine campaign of intimidation aimed at expanding Tehran’s leverage
by signaling resistance, exploiting the vulnerability of gulf oil exports, and
threatening to escalate threats against Arab oil-exporting countries aligned
with the United States.
The goal is to force the Trump administration to back down from its maximum
pressure campaign and drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies,
which Tehran hopes will be motivated to help shield Iran from U.S. sanctions.
But this blackmail campaign is unlikely to succeed. Iran’s attacks on oil
tankers will not boost its own oil exports or solve its sanctions problems,
though they could backfire spectacularly by triggering a costly war with the
United States or a diplomatic backlash by oil-importing countries threatened by
Iran’s oil blackmail tactics.
Trump, secure in the knowledge that his strategy is paying dividends by
penalizing Iran’s hostile policies, has doubled down on his pressure campaign by
imposing new economic sanctions and approving U.S. cyberattacks against
Revolutionary Guard military computers that control rocket and missile
launchers.
Disabling Iranian missile sites through cyberattacks, rather than conventional
military attacks, has several advantages.
It underscores to Tehran that it is vulnerable to additional counter-threats,
casts doubt on its military capabilities, and helps reassure nervous U.S. allies
that Washington seeks a diplomatic resolution, not a war with Iran.
Still, Iran’s ruthless regime remains on a collision course with the United
States. If it continues to reject diplomacy in favor of violence and
intimidation, then a military clash and perhaps a full-scale war is increasingly
likely.
Analysis/Why Trump May End Up Calling Rohani ‘Dear Friend’
After All
زفي برئيل/هآرتس: لهذا الأسباب قد يتوقف ترامب عن مناداة روحاني يا صديقي العزيز
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76195/%d8%b2%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%85%d8%a7-%d9%84%d9%87%d8%b0%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%8a%d8%aa/
Before heading to negotiations, Washington must set its red lines and clarify
what it offers in return.
It’s been a few days since the Iranians downed an American drone, and no new
attack has taken place in the Gulf, excluding attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on
Saudi airports. The mysterious attacks on oil tankers (for one of which the
United Arab Emirates still wants further proof that Iran perpetrated) have been
replaced instead by fierce verbal exchanges.
Iran has diagnosed the White House as “mentally disabled” and threatened that if
America attacks its sovereignty again, its response will be much harsher than
downing a drone. U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed that if Tehran attacks
American forces, it will be “the official end” of Iran.
In between, both sides stress that they don’t want war. Trump has repeatedly
demanded direct talks with Iran, while Iran has rejected the offer because it
doesn’t trust America.
But the clock hasn’t stopped ticking. On Thursday, Iran’s threat to increase its
stockpile of low-enriched uranium beyond the 300 kilograms permitted by the
nuclear deal has gone into effect. The next deadline is July 7, when Iran has
threatened to start enriching uranium beyond the 3.7 percent level permitted by
the agreement, perhaps even going to as high as 20 percent, if the deal’s
European signatories don’t find a practical way to circumvent U.S. sanctions.
None of the relevant parties has a thought-out strategy for confronting Iran –
not only over attacks in the Gulf, but primarily over its planned violations of
the nuclear deal. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke repeatedly this week
with both Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Trump, trying to ease tensions and
reduce the danger of a confrontation. To Trump, he publicly promised that France
opposes Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and to Rohani, he talked up his efforts
to launch a trading mechanism that would circumvent the sanctions, a mechanism
that still hasn’t taken off.
Arm wrestling over the nuclear deal isn’t just taking place between Europe and
the United States. Even within the U.S. administration, there’s no agreement on
how to deal with Iran - either on the tactical or the strategic level.
One focus of disputes is whether to allow Iran to develop its nuclear program
for peaceful purposes. The nuclear deal’s permissions are based on the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran has signed, as well as specific articles in
the nuclear deal that allow it to purchase enriched uranium for research and
electricity production – carried out at the Bushehr power plant and the Arak and
Fordow facilities.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has taken the lead in forging
Trump’s Iran policy with support from Republican senators Ted Cruz and Marco
Rubio, wants Trump to cancel these permits and thereby complete America’s
withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, though also an uncompromising hawk, opposes
scrapping the permits, out of fear that Iran would then produce the requisite
amounts of enriched uranium itself. And Europe, all the while, is hoping that
Washington’s continued issuing of permits indicates a willingness to keep at
least parts of the deal in place, rather than scrapping it entirely.
For now, Trump has reissued the permits, but for 90 days rather than the 180
days stipulated in the agreement, after which he will reconsider. The
contradiction of having withdrawn from the deal while continuing to honor
certain parts of it doesn’t seem to bother him. After all, it’s minor compared
to the contradiction of seeking negotiations with Tehran after withdrawing from
the deal, which Iran was in full compliance with.
Perhaps Iran’s decision to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium will
determine the fate of these permits. And if Trump decides to cancel them, he
will merely bolster Iran’s argument.
In the absence of any diplomatic or military strategy aside from threats to
attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – which Trump says he wants to avoid – it’s
worth considering the impact of the new sanctions he’s imposed on Iran.
According to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the decision to impose sanctions
on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stems from his status as the
ultimate decision maker and the person in charge of the Revolutionary Guards,
which Washington listed as a terrorist organization in April. Mnuchin said
Khamenei controls assets estimated to be worth more than $200 billion, which are
used, inter alia, to build up Iran’s armed forces and conduct military
operations outside the country.
One could legitimately wonder why the administration didn’t impose sanctions on
Khamenei previously. But the more interesting bit of information is that Iran
has a huge financial cushion that could keep it afloat for a long time, even
until the next U.S. presidential election.
Incidentally, the lack of governmental oversight and published data about where
Khamenei’s slush fund – created by his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini – invests
its assets will make it hard to implement these sanctions, especially since most
of the money is deposited in Iran.
Sanctions on Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, meanwhile, put Trump on a
collision course with the United Nations, since they may result in Zarif being
denied a visa to attend the UN General Assembly. That would be unprecedented,
and it would violate the UN Charter.
But if Trump is clinging to sanctions as a way to convince Iran to agree to
negotiate, it’s difficult to deduce what kind of agreement he’s aiming for. A
year ago, Pompeo presented a list of 12 demands that Iran would have to comply
with for Washington to lift the sanctions. Most analysts divide these demands
into three categories.
First are the demands Iran could agree to, like disclosing the military nuclear
program it ran before signing the nuclear deal. That information is already
readily available from the International Atomic Energy Agency, although perhaps
Washington is looking for an Iranian “confession.” Other demands in this
category include allowing inspectors immediate access to any suspect Iranian
facility (the nuclear deal already has such a provision, but it gives Iran 24
days to accede to such a request); releasing Americans and dual citizens from
Iranian jails; ending Iranian aid to the Taliban in Afghanistan (which Iran says
is a defense from Islamic State, but which Washington claims is enabling the
Taliban to attack American forces); ceasing to threaten American allies, mainly
Israel and Saudi Arabia; and ceasing to threaten passage through the Straits of
Hormuz.
The second category consists of demands which Iran would have trouble agreeing
to. These include ceasing its intervention in Iraq’s internal affairs and
funding for Iraqi militias, ending aid to the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in
Lebanon, and withdrawing its forces from Syria.
The third category consists of demands Iran would certainly reject because they
touch on core national security issues. These include demands to shut down its
heavy water facility, eschew the processing of plutonium for military purposes,
stop development and manufacturing of ballistic missiles capable of carrying
nuclear warheads, and cut support for the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force,
commanded by Qassem Soleimani.
Over time, however, the Pompeo demands have lost relevance. Trump hasn’t
mentioned them when speaking of his desire to negotiate with Iran. It might
actually have been possible to negotiate with Tehran over the lion’s share of
these demands without quitting the nuclear deal, by building a relationship of
trust based on Iran’s economic dependence on the West, rather than relying on
sanctions and threats.
Nevertheless, Trump has never explained what his red lines are, which demands he
would be willing to concede, and in exchange for what. For instance, would he
agree to sell Iran fighter jets if it halts its missile program, which serves as
a substitute for its virtually nonexistent air force? Is removing Iranian forces
from Syria more important to him than Iran’s admission that it maintained a
military nuclear program?
Moreover, what is he willing to offer Iran in exchange for all this, given that
Iran is unlikely to be satisfied with just the removal of sanctions, already
promised in the 2015 deal? Iran will undoubtedly demand potent sweeteners if it
agrees to negotiate, so that its regime can present concrete achievements and
not look as if it capitulated to American pressure.
For now, Tehran’s position is similar to that of the Palestinians – that even
agreeing to negotiate with the Americans would be a capitulation, if not a
defeat. But Iran knows how to devise magic formulas when it makes a policy
decision. “I agree with what I termed years ago ‘heroic flexibility,’ because
this approach works very well, and it’s necessary in certain situations, as long
as we stick to our principles,” Khamenei said in 2013, laying the groundwork for
negotiating the nuclear deal. Mansour Haqiqatpour, who is currently an advisor
to the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said at the time that “correcting the
relationship between Iran and the U.S. would crack the spine of the Zionist
regime and of the reactionary regimes in the Middle East,” a truly paramount
Iranian goal for which it might even be worth negotiating with Trump.
Inside Intelligence: Israel-Egypt Coperation Key To Beating Back ISIS In Sinai
يونا جيرمي بوي/جيرازولم بوست: تقرير مخابراتي يؤكد نجاج تعاون مصر وإسرائيل
بمحاربة وهزيمة داعش في سيناء
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76198/%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%85%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%ae%d8%a7/
Ex-US counterterrorism chief Nick Rasmussen talks to the ‘Post’ about regional
threats, cooperation with Israeli intelligence and redefining international
terrorism.
Israeli-Egyptian cooperation is the key to confronting the threat posed by ISIS
Sinai, former director of the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Nick
Rasmussen told The Jerusalem Post in a recent exclusive interview.
Rasmussen, who was the center’s chief from 2014 until December 2017, straddling
the Obama and Trump administrations, complimented the reports of
quiet-but-effective cooperation between Cairo and Jerusalem.
Currently director of the McCain Institute’s Counterterrorism Program, he said
that, “given the extensive capabilities of Israel’s intelligence apparatus,”
this would make it harder for ISIS to attack Israel from Sinai – although it has
clearly tried.
While some have looked at Sinai as one of the new key bases of operations for
ISIS, he said that the jihadist organization is “not moving en masse to set up
the caliphate” in a single, specific alternative spot.
Rather, there are many alternatives, he said, noting that “the Sinai is not the
only one.”
Rasmussen added the Philippines and, even more so, Libya. In addition, he said
that he personally is most concerned about reprisal terrorist attacks within
other Arab countries.
The NCTC has over a thousand intelligence professionals working for it across 20
US agencies, analyzing and carrying out strategic planning to fight terrorist
threats to America.
It was formed after 9/11 based on expert recommendations, which stated that, had
an agency existed to ensure that all of the dozen or so US intelligence agencies
cooperated better in sharing intelligence, the attacks might have been foiled.
Discussing the potential of ISIS to make a comeback less than two months after
its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, came out with a video showing he was still
alive despite rumors otherwise, Rasmussen said that with ISIS routed from its
capitals in Iraq and Syria, everything “is linked to the question: How do we
successfully address the political aspirations of the broader Sunni community in
Iraq or Syria?
“To the extent the Sunni population still feels marginalized and
disenfranchised, this creates a pool of potential adherents or recruits, the
same as it did a decade ago with Islamic State 2.0,” he stated.
Continuing, he said: “That is a population from which they were allowed to
become a mass movement, and not just a clandestine terrorist organization…
Though the caliphate has been destroyed, ISIS is perfectly able to convert to
embed into the broader Sunni population.”
From there, he said that ISIS can “bide its time until an opportunity presents
itself to capitalize on the grievances, to expand again into a broad-based
insurgency campaign.”
To combat this possibility, Western government and intelligence officials must
be asking themselves, “How do we create a more inclusive political system in
Iraq to stop the Sunni community’s feeling of being marginalized?”
Regarding the group’s resiliency, he pointed out that “ISIS had quite a bit of
time to prepare for the current phase. The campaigns against Mosul, Raqqa and
smaller pockets in the Euphrates River Valley took a long time. It was the
world’s longest telegraphed punch.”
Since ISIS “knew what the coalition was doing, they had plenty of time to
prepare for the outcome,” he said.
Fundamentally, he said that it is crucial for the US to have learned that “we
don’t turn away and think the Iraqis can handle it all on their own. That is not
a recipe for success. There is plenty of room for debate about what presence the
US should have, but it must have some role.”
One area where the ISIS threat has been less than expected has been that fewer
of its fighters from the West have returned to Europe and beyond.
Following comments last week by a Syrian Democratic Forces commander that
England could still face a large number of ISIS sleeper cells perpetrating
terrorism there, Rasmussen said that “we were very focused in my tenure” on the
volume of ISIS returnees to the West.
Now, he said, “the analysis has shifted. It is not as much a quantity problem,
as a quality problem… Most foreign fighters have chosen or been compelled to
stay in conflict zones to fight and die, or go to the countryside… and our
defense against outflow of fighters [to the West] is better than before.”
But the “SDF commander’s words are something to worry about,” he said. “Maybe
not hundreds of ISIS fighters will return to the UK, but should the UK be
concerned if the wrong three to five fighters are returning?… If they are very
capable and highly trained?… We still have a quality problem, so we need to find
out who we should be the most worried about and get the right intelligence.”
MOVING ON to American and Israeli intelligence cooperation, such as tips
Israel’s Mossad has taken credit for relating to sabotaging ISIS plots to
explode airplanes using laptop computers, Rasmussen demurred.
“I’m constrained; I was in government too recently,” to discuss specifics, but
he said that in general, “we have a very robust dialogue and intelligence
exchange with Israeli intelligence services on the full range of terror-related
issues in the Middle East. ISIS has featured prominently in those discussions.
We looked to Israel as helpful partners.”
Despite what he called generally excellent intelligence cooperation, when
pressed, Rasmussen acknowledged that sometimes the US and Israel, especially
under different administrations, may even view intelligence differently, based
on the differing threats and constellation of national priorities in play.
“Most of my career I was in the White House, the National Security Council and
the US State Department. I was not a career intelligence professional. But at
NCTC I was involved in intelligence. Even with our closest partners, we can have
different perspectives. That happens with the US, Israel, England and almost any
country you can think of, with whom you have a close intelligence relationship.”
He continued, saying that “I hope to be open and honest about differences, so we
can evaluate what we are hearing from our partner” and understand each side’s
policy choices and preferences, since “I don’t want to question the veracity of
the information” itself, and “I never saw anything like that happen with the
terror issues I dealt with.”
In addition, he said that “Israel is an aggressive and very direct partner in
bringing terror concerns to the US. At meetings with Israeli intelligence
officials, you knew you would get well developed and thoughtful presentations –
for example, what is happening with Hezbollah – instead of just general
comments.”
Rasmussen also got to know issues relating to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps intimately during his service.
Referring to the Trump administration’s recent decision to define the entire
IRGC as a terrorist group, “I understood the political views for wanting to do
it,” but questioned whether it was more effective than other moves.
He said that the US could have “designated specific entities and individuals
associated with the IRGC, to make a point in a very direct and precise way about
who was involved in terror-related behavior.”
In contrast, he said that “by designating the entire group as a terror
organization, you set up a potential conflict where you are demonizing an entire
segment of the Iranian national security apparatus.”
“While that may be politically useful to make the case about Iran… I am not sure
it puts us in a better place,” implying that he would have preferred a scalpel
in applying sanctions rather than a big machete.
RASMUSSEN HAS some cutting-edge ideas about redefining how we think about
“international” terrorism.
“I am not sure we have all the answers. In some ways, my thinking on this
started evolving after the Christchurch attack. It is almost embarrassing that I
did not think about this before. This brought it home to me.”
His point was that attacks are perpetrated in the US by white supremacists and
antisemites, with non-jihadist ideologies, where the attackers benefit from,
coordinate with, or are inspired by domestic terrorists in other countries –
even without an apparent ideological bridge between them.
After the Pittsburgh attack, he said, the US needed to explore the idea of
international links between those individuals who share such violent ideologies.
Looking to the Christchurch attack, he said: “We noted from travel patterns that
an attacker had some interaction with people who thought like he thought,”
though they lived in other countries and were not part of a joint network.
“It doesn’t mean they have a network or organization like ISIS or Hezbollah, but
maybe there can be an international dimension to domestic terrorism. This has
not been completely explored,” he noted.
He said that recently, he was having dinner with his former British counterpart
and that the two of them remarked how strange it was that they never dealt with
sharing information about domestic terrorism with international dimensions as a
strategic issue.
To properly combat this kind of terrorism, new questions need to be asked, such
as “what kind of new intelligence and sharing do you need from German, French,
Danish and Belgian security services? Until now this conversation related only
to ISIS-inspired attackers,” but he said that making international connections
needed to expand.
ENTERING THE cyber realm, Rasmussen said he was astonished by the level of
detail in a recent New York Times story about the US planting cyber booby traps
in the Russian electrical power system.
He said the US hack of Russia and the decision to leak it was a “signaling
device to the Russians” that the US is degrading Russian capabilities.
“You need to find the art of striking” and sending whatever signal you want to
send, while managing the level of detail that is leaked into the public domain,
noting that he found the specificity of detail leaked in this case “troubling.”
he said. He explained that the US wanted Russia to know that we “are working
aggressively to develop these capabilities” of planting cyber booby traps. The
purpose of these tools and of advertising them in public is to deter the
Russians, though he said that, “I hope we do not need to use these tools.”
Having worked with US peace negotiator Dennis Ross from 1996 to 2001 during the
height of the Oslo process, Rasmussen said that the current state of broken-down
Israeli-Palestinian relations can be hard to take.
He worries that the next generation on both sides of the conflict may find it
more difficult to continue to envision any kind of peace horizon.
At the same time, concluding on a positive note, he said that he hoped the next
generation “will be more creative and find ways to peacefully coexist.”
Are Military Options Available For Trump To End Iranian
Nuclear Threat?
أريك أر. منديل/جيرازولم بوست: ترى هل الخيارات الحربية متوفرة لدى ترامب لإنهاء
التهديد الإيراني النووي؟
Eric R.Mandel/Jerusalem Post/June 28/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76205/%d8%a3%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83-%d8%a3%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%89-%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae/
Last week I debated an American intelligence officer regarding how the United
States should respond to Iranian provocations.
Last week I debated an American intelligence officer regarding how the United
States should respond to Iranian provocations. He believed that the US would be
playing into Iran’s hands with any military response, harming the possibility of
forging a united front to challenge Iran if it breaks the nuclear agreement.
From this perspective, turning the other cheek to Iran’s aggressions allows the
focus to remain exclusively on its nuclear aspirations.
No matter what happens between the United States and Iran this month – whether
there is a conventional military response, another under-the-radar cyberattack,
more sanctions, or no response at all – the only surety is that this will not to
be the end of the confrontation but simply another, albeit dangerous, chapter in
the 40-year clash of civilizations between America and the revolutionary
Islamist movement.
President Trump avoided a military response to the recent attack, instead
choosing increased sanctions, calling them “strong and proportionate.”
Although American diplomacy without a credible military threat plays well in
Brussels, if America is perceived to be a paper tiger, ignoring attacks on
American and allied interests, it greatly weakens the possibility that diplomacy
will be successful here and elsewhere.
Iran thinks it has taken the measure of Trump with multiple attacks and no
military response, and they may now believe they can continue to push America
even further. North Korea is watching, and our allies wonder how reliable an
ally America is anymore.
Waiting out this administration was the original Iranian plan, but the new
sanctions are undermining its economy and the stability of the regime. The only
question is when will the Iranian people mass by the millions into the streets
again as they did in 2009.
According to James Phillips of the Heritage Institute, “Iran’s high-seas
terrorism and intimidation tactics give European allies ample reason to
reconsider their soft and naive approach to Iran policy, and to reunite with the
US in seeking a more binding and long-lasting agreement to preclude an Iranian
nuclear weapon.”
It will be very hard to convince the Europeans to join, as they believe we would
not be in the current situation if only the president had not withdrawn from the
Iran nuclear deal. The false narrative that everything was fine with Iran until
Trump withdrew from the deal defies the evidence.
Europe has chosen to hide their eyes to all of Iran’s malevolent behavior
committed after the JCPOA went into effect: its current terrorist activity in
Europe, its destabilizing activity in the West Bank, its money laundering in
South America, its ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq, its
entrenchment of its Shi’ite allies in the Iraqi military, and its support of
terrorist entities Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Europeans have ignored
all of this in addition to Iranian missile development, and its unrelenting
support of terrorism.
But will Trump, in the quest for a new nuclear deal, follow Obama – who believed
that you could separate Iran’s nuclear weapons program from its other malign
activity? Let’s hope not. Iranian expansionism is creating a noose around
Israel.
According to Avi Issacharoff writing in the Times of Israel, “In a reality once
unthinkable, Assad’s troops along the Golan border are heeding commanders of the
Iran-backed terror group [Hezbollah], and helping it prepare for conflict with
the Jewish state,” while Seth Frantzman of The Jerusalem Post reported that
“Tehran envisions joint military exercises and missile defense” between Iran and
Iraq.
SO HOW to proceed? The Islamic threat of terrorism and intimidation works on
Europe. Europe’s first impulse is to try and placate Iran. There is something
hypocritical when Europeans condescend to Americans about their high-minded
defense of human rights, then fight with all of their might to create a
bartering system: INSTEX (the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges to
facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran), to bypass American sanctions to help
enrich the world’s leading terrorist state.
So here are some thoughts:
• Attacking Iranian interests doesn’t mean a path to war.
Thirty years ago, America attacked Iranian oil platforms during Operation
Praying Mantis after Iranian mines hit an American frigate. More than 100
Iranians were killed and war did not follow.
• Don’t underestimate the power of American sanctions
After Trump withdrew from the Iran deal and re-imposed sanctions, the mainstream
media said that without European support and with only American sanctions, there
was no way to put significant pressure on Iran. Fast forward, and since the
re-imposition of sanctions, Iran is plagued with worsening inflation, raging
unemployment and, most importantly, a dissatisfied populace that wants change.
• Iran is vulnerable
It is much better to confront a weakened and vulnerable Iran than to placate the
Iranians with hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief that will only
empower them to undermine American interests, and almost certainly force us back
into another Middle Eastern confrontation, but not under our terms.
• America needs to get off Western time
We must learn in short order to have patience and not expect results in dealing
with Iran. All of our adversaries, including Iran, know that America enters
conflicts with one foot out the door before it even begins.
The simplest way forward would be for the Europeans to rejoin sanctions if Iran
breaks its nuclear commitment. Just as important would be a combined Chinese,
American and Indian flotilla, flagging tankers with their national flags to
protect shipping in international waterways. Standing with Israel and Jordan
against Iranian entrenchment in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq remains a vital American
national security interest that cannot be bartered in a new nuclear agreement.
Whatever happens, remember that as long as this regime remains a revolutionary
theocracy, it will not change its stripes. There should be no illusions about
this. The best we can do if regime change is not on the table is containment.
Iranian aggression will for sure come knocking again, and we will at some point
need to choose how to respond, militarily or not.
*The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network,
who regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy advisers. He
is a regular columnist for The Jerusalem Post and i24TV International, and a
contributor to The Hill, JTA, JNS and The Forward.
What Is Trump Up to in Iran?
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg View/June 28/2019
On Thursday, my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Mark Gongloff wrote: “America either
is or is not sliding toward war with Iran, depending on the time of day,
prevailing winds and relative hangriness of whoever happens to be making the War
Decisions at the moment.”
Then things got even more unsettled. As the New York Times reported, “President
Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an
American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday
night after a day of escalating tensions.”
Where to begin? Frankly, I’m at a bit of a loss. The president is evidently
ordering and countermanding military strikes while he has a lame-duck acting
secretary of defense and an acting Air Force secretary. He’s handed key
decisions over to a national security adviser whom he regularly bad-mouths.
Meanwhile, he’s apparently consulting with goofball cable-news hosts to figure
out some of the most important questions of his presidency.
It’s not as if his previous rounds of crises have been resolved. Not the trade
war with China, not the appalling treatment of migrant families at the US
border, not the standoff in Venezuela (which Trump apparently just got bored of
and moved on).
As for what the president is up to in Iran? Peter Baker says: “For two and a
half years, he has veered between bellicose threats against America’s enemies
and promises to get the United States out of the intractable wars of the Middle
East. Now he had to choose.” And yet rather than choosing, he seems to be going
full speed ahead in both directions at once.
Even if we give Trump every benefit of the doubt, supposing – without evidence –
that this was actually a well-considered plan that was designed to look like
chaos for some as yet unknown but actually sensible reason, it’s still hard to
imagine how allies can have any confidence in an administration that appears to
act so impulsively. Back on Thursday, three scholars of how wars start still
found it possible to offer soothing words about how shooting down a drone
shouldn’t lead to uncontrollable escalation. That’s somewhat reassuring, I
guess.
But meanwhile, Trump’s professional reputation in Washington (and in capitals
around the world) will take yet another hit, on a day when the president
suffered yet another defeat in the Republican-majority Senate. None of this is
likely to have any direct effect on Trump’s approval ratings or his re-election
chances. But it will continue to make it less and less likely that anyone will
do anything this president wants.
The 'Cat-And-Mouse' World of the Ayatollah
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June 28/2019
A few weeks ago, the Islamic Republic’s “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
described his regime’s decades-long conflict with the United States as a
real-life re-enactment of the Tom and Jerry cartoons from Hollywood in which a
crafty little mouse provokes the clumsy big cat into all manner of threatening
gestures but always ends up emerging safe and sound. In Khamenei’s bizarre
depiction, the Islamic Republic is the little mouse (Jerry) and the United
States the big cat (Tom). Why should Khamenei make a conflict that has done so
much damage to Iran as a nation the subject of so frivolous a depiction is
something beyond the scope of this article. No serious political leader would
see a conflict with an adversary as no more than a childish game. But, we never
accused the Ayatollah of being a serious leader. Like Jerry, he is only
interested in attracting attention by provocation and then dodging punishment,
prolonging the life of his regime by a few more minutes, hours or even years.
Khamenei does not see the difference between the behavior of a cartoon mouse and
a nation of 85 million real human beings. Jerry can be as provocative and
playful as he wants because he does not need a job, a school, a hospital, a roof
above his head, some food (cheese?) on his table, and a rule-based system to
protect his rights and dignity. Like all ideologues, fantasist to a fault,
Khamenei has little time for reality.
But what is the reality?
Khamenei says the sanctions imposed by the United States must be regarded as
“blessings in disguise” because they preclude the quest for a modus vivendi
between Tom and Jerry. “The sanctions have no effects but strengthen our
resistance,” he boasts. However, his lobbyists in the West, especially in the
United States, know they cannot win any sympathy for the Islamic Republic with
so vacuous a claim. They have to persuade the Western public, or at least the
bleeding-heart do-gooders and the useful idiots, that the sanctions imposed by
the “Great Satan” are destroying the lives of ordinary Iranians without having
any effect on the Khomeinist leadership.
The truth is that sanctions are affecting the lives of many ordinary Iranians in
the context of what has morphed into an economic war. Contrary to claims by
Khomeinist lobbyists in the West, Iran is not facing any shortage of food or
medications, items not affected by sanctions. However, factories closing for
lack of imported spare parts cause mass unemployment while the plummeting value
of the national currency fuels stagflation. Last week the government announced
that more than 4800 projects have been slowed down or frozen for lack of funds.
To maintain its current average levels of expenditure, the Islamic Republic
government would need to export 1.5 million barrels of crude oil a day. Since
last March, however, exports have never risen above 500,000 barrels a day.
Sanctions have also led to some modification of the regime’s behavior at home
and abroad. According to reliable sources handouts to such groups as the Houthis
in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza have been cut
by an average of 10 percent. This is certainly not enough to force any
significant change of behavior by those groups but sends a signal that Tehran’s
traditional generosity may not be forever. The export of Jihadis to Syria has
also dwindled to a trickle. This is partly due to the relative calming of the
overall situation in that country and that Iran’s presence has been reduced to
enclaves in Deir az-Zour and Albukamal. Nevertheless, when it comes to hiring
Pakistani and Afghan mercenaries, shortage of money must also be a factor.
The regime’s cash-flow problem, partly caused by sanctions, has also led to
virtual freezing of the controversial missile project at a range of 2000
kilometers.
That sanctions are working could also be seen in other domains. This year the
Islamic Republic did not organize its annual “End of America;’ and “End of
Israel” jamborees that usually attracted hundreds of professional
America-haters, Trump-bashers and Holocaust deniers from all over the world d
including the US itself. This year no international Holocaust cartoons
competition, held since 2006, was held while a TV serial depicting “the Great
Satan’s crimes” has been scrapped. A long-talked-of seminar of African-Americans
to discuss the creation of a “black Muslim republic” in the United States was
scrapped for lack of money. As far as we know, there was also no sign of Nation
of Islam chief Louis Farrakhan, an annual visitor, coming to extract
contributions from the Islamic Republic.
Interestingly, it seems that the fading star-spangled banners painted at the
entrance of most public offices to be trampled under feet are no longer
repainted, undermining one of the Khomeinist revolution’s most cherished
rituals.
In another register, shortage of money forced the mullahs to release over 65000
prisoners, more than a quarter of those jailed in the Islamic Republic. That
meant that Iran lost its position as the world-number-one nation in a number of
prisoners relative to population; it is now number-three after China and Turkey.
Contrary to what Pat Buchanan in the US and Jeremy Corbyn in Britain say
sanctions are working not by wrecking the lives of ordinary Iranians, who do
suffer nevertheless, but by denying the mullahs the means to indulge in their
deadly Tom-and-Jerry shenanigans.
The question is whether, once again, we are going to witness a Groundhog Day
rerun. Each time the US imposed sanctions; the mullahs took a bite of humble pie
and briefly modified aspects of their behavior as if playing a the Tom-and-Jerry
script. However, once sanctions were eased, their Jerry lost no time to revert
to its old tricks. The key question here is whether Trump, regarded by opponents
to have an attention span no longer than a tweet, will want or be able, as a
patient Tom, to sit back and let time do its chastising work on the playful,
provocative and perverse Jerry that is the Khomeinist regime.
UN Global Compact: What Happens Next?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/June 28, 2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14391/un-global-compact-next
This initiative [to "present a global plan of action against hate speech and
hate crimes on a fast-track basis"] should be deeply concerning and is likely to
serve only to silence critics of the UN, including its agenda on migration and
the GCM.
The EU, for its part, according to statements by Hungary and Austria, does not
appear to agree that implementing the Global Compact should be up to every EU
member state. Instead, the EU is working on making it legally binding, even for
those EU countries who have not adopted the Compact.
"A 'secret document' has been published on work by the European Commission's
legal service to formulate 'lengthy and devious' legal grounds for suggesting
that the compact is, after all, mandatory for EU member states." — Hungarian
Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl recently said that she was "astonished"
to learn that the legal opinion of the Legal Service of the European Commission
"represents a different opinion than the previously communicated [opinion that
the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is] legally
non-binding." She handed over to Austrian EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn a
position paper, clarifying that "UN General Assembly resolutions are not legally
binding and you cannot declare parts of them binding."
In December, world leaders of 165 countries adopted an ostensibly non-binding
agreement that propagates a radical idea: that migration -- for any reason -- is
something that needs to be promoted, enabled and protected[1].
The agreement is named the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular
Migration (GCM), and now comes its implementation. The UN has not wasted any
time in setting this "non-binding" Compact in motion. Already at the Marrakesh
Conference in December, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres launched the
Migration Network (Network)[2], a new addition to the UN bureaucracy, and
seemingly intended to "ensure effective and coherent system‑wide support to the
implementation of the Global Compact". The International Organization for
Migration (IOM) will serve as the coordinator and secretariat of all constituent
parts of the Network in implementing the Global Compact.
The UN, in other words, has set its enormous bureaucratic infrastructure into
full motion to see to it that the Compact will have maximum impact across the
globe.
IOM director-general Antonio Vitorino has already sent a warning to critics of
the UN migration agenda. "If we want to succeed in having a more humane and
better world, we should resist the temptation of negative narratives that some
want to spread about migration," Vitorino said recently.
His spokesman, Leonard Doyle, recently threatened that unless integrating
migrants is taken seriously, terrorism will supposedly occur:
"Populism is certainly a toxic issue that is down to a misunderstanding of the
issues... When you don't have integration then you have serious problems like
terrorism... It is in everybody's interests that we work towards a better
integration of migrants and refugees, not to do so is to store up problems for
the future."
The Global Compact contains a provision, clearly signaling that any disagreement
with its agenda will not be accepted and that the signatory states will work to
dispel "misleading narratives that generate negative perceptions of migrants."
According to Objective 17 of the Global Compact, member states are obligated to:
"Promote independent, objective and quality reporting of media outlets,
including internet-based information, including by sensitizing and educating
media professionals on migration-related issues and terminology, investing in
ethical reporting standards and advertising, and stopping allocation of public
funding or material support to media outlets that systematically promote
intolerance, xenophobia, racism and other forms of discrimination towards
migrants, in full respect for the freedom of the media." [Emphasis added.]
UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres, in a January press conference, took it
even further, not limiting himself to speech about the Global Compact:
"We need to enlist every segment of society in the battle for values that our
world faces today – and, in particular, to tackle the rise of hate speech,
xenophobia and intolerance... Poisonous views are penetrating political debates
and polluting the mainstream. Let's never forget the lessons of the 1930s. Hate
speech and hate crimes are direct threats to human rights, to sustainable
development and to peace and security. That is why I have tasked my Special
Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, to bring together a UN team
to scale up our response, define a system-wide strategy and present a global
plan of action against hate speech and hate crimes on a fast-track basis".
This initiative should be deeply concerning and is likely to serve only to
silence critics of the UN, including its agenda on migration and the Global
Compact.
As part of the implementation work, on March 21-22, the Global Forum on
Migration and Development (GFMD)[3], a UN-affiliated forum, organized the first
GFMD Thematic Workshop on the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration
(GCM) at the national level. Under the theme "Towards a Common Vision and Joint
Action in Implementing the GCM at the National Level," the workshop gathered
around 190 participants from 89 UN Member States and more than 40 civil society,
private sector and international organizations. The agenda for the workshop
states:
"Now that the GCM has been adopted, the task ahead is to ensure that its
principles take root and the menu of its actionable commitments is implemented.
It is a shared responsibility to ensure that more migrants will be taken out of
harm's way and their lives will be saved, abuse and exploitation addressed, and
migrants' increased productivity and overall positive contribution to the
development of their home and destination countries promoted..."
According to a press release from GFMD:
"In her keynote address, Ambassador Laura Thompson, IOM Deputy Director General
emphasized that there is no 'one size fits all' model for the GCM
implementation, noting that every state will need to determine for itself what
steps to take. From IOM's viewpoint, there are three possible GCM implementation
approaches—(1) a systematic and robust approach which follows the four-year GCM
review cycle; (2) a selective approach where governments decide to match their
existing priorities to relevant GCM objectives; and (3) business as usual
approach which is doing nothing at all. During the brief open discussion,
interveners insisted that the third approach was not an option at the outset."
The EU, for its part, according to statements by Hungary and Austria, does not
appear to agree that implementing the Global Compact should be up to every EU
member state. Instead, the EU is working on making it legally binding, even for
those EU countries who have not adopted the Compact.
"A 'secret document' has been published on work by the European Commission's
legal service to formulate 'lengthy and devious' legal grounds for suggesting
that the compact is, after all, mandatory for EU member states", said Hungarian
Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. He added, "Although the document was not
released the way the EC would have wanted it to be, the commission 'has
confirmed its existence'".
Similarly, Austrian Foreign Minister, Karin Kneissl, said that she was
"astonished" to learn that the legal opinion of the Legal Service of the
European Commission "represents a different opinion than the previously
communicated [opinion that the Global Compact is] legally non-binding." She
handed over to Austrian EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn a position paper,
clarifying that "UN General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding and you
cannot declare parts of them binding." Hahn dismissed Austria's concern as a
"storm in a glass of water". He said that the position of the European
Commission has not changed, and that the Global Compact remains a "non-binding
instrument".
Whatever the legal status of the Global Compact, the EU appears to be continuing
to boost migration into the continent. According to a briefing posted on the
European Parliament's website:
"Europe, due to its geographic position and its reputation as an example of
stability, generosity and openness against a background of growing international
and internal conflicts, climate change and global poverty, is likely to continue
to represent an ideal refuge for asylum-seekers and migrants. This is also
reflected in the growing amounts, flexibility and diversity of EU funding for
migration and asylum policies inside as well as outside the current and future
EU budget".
In February, the European Parliament supported the European Commission's
suggested increase of the EU budget for asylum, migration and integration
policies with 51%. A press release from the European Parliament noted:
"The Civil Liberties Committee endorsed the renewed Asylum, Migration and
Integration Fund (AMIF), the 2021-2027 budget of which will increase up to €9.2
billion (€10.41 billion in current prices, 51% more than in the previous
financial framework). It also backed the creation of a new Integrated Border
Management Fund (IBMF) and agreed to allocate €7.1 billion (€8 billion in
current prices) to it."
At the same time, the top bureaucratic echelons of the European Commission
continue to repeat their old, soggy, clichéd mantras. At the April 3 meeting of
the European Migration Forum, under the title, "From global to local governance
of migration: The role of local authorities and civil society in managing
migration and ensuring safe and regular pathways to the EU," Dimitri
Avramopolous, the European Commissioner for Migration, said:
"Legal pathways are important to help reduce irregular migration. But we also
need to face the reality of our ageing society – this is the case all over
Europe. While we will continue to invest in and support all our Member States in
fully activating, training and upskilling the existing EU work force and
especially our youth, we know that the EU economy will need the work and skills
of migrants in the future, especially the highly skilled... The Commission
provides support to Member States who have shown interest, as well as to
non-public actors to develop temporary labour migration opportunities for
selected migrants coming from certain African countries."
While world leaders continue to push for more migration, polls show that many
citizens, worldwide, do not want more migration, whether in or out of their
countries. According to a December 2018 Pew report:
"Across the countries surveyed, a median of 45% say fewer or no immigrants
should be allowed to move to their country [in Europe the median was 51%], while
36% say they want about the same number of immigrants... In Europe, majorities
in Greece (82%), Hungary (72%), Italy (71%) and Germany (58%) say fewer
immigrants or no immigrants at all should be allowed to move to their
countries... In several countries, most disapprove of how the European Union has
handled the refugee issue. People in other countries around the world hold views
similar to those in Europe".
Even in Sweden, which is usually hailed as such a migrant-friendly country, 52%
said that fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move to their country.
Then again, world leaders seem not to be particularly bothered about what their
constituents think.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
[1] Five countries voted against the UN General Assembly Resolution formally
endorsing the Global Compact – the United States, Israel, Poland, Hungary and
the Czech Republic. The Compact was adopted at the Marrakesh Conference in
Morocco on December 10-11 last year and was formally endorsed by the UN General
Assembly on December 19, 2018.
[2] The purpose of the Network, according to its own terms of reference is to
support the "UN System... implementation, follow-up and review of the Global
Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the network's task is
to "ensure effective, timely and coordinated system-wide support to Member
States". In carrying out its mandate, the Network will "prioritize the rights
and wellbeing of migrants and their communities of destination, origin, and
transit".
[3] The GFMD, according to its website, "Does not form part of the United
Nations system, although it is open to all States Members and Observers of the
United Nations. While the GFMD is an independent and separate process outside of
the UN, it coordinates with important elements of the UN system in a number of
ways" .It is a "state-led, informal and non-binding process, which helps shape
the global debate on migration and development" which was proposed by former UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2006 and established in 2007, according to its
website.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Economics a greater threat to Erdogan than politics
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/June 28, 2019
There is no doubt that the stunning Istanbul local election result is the single
biggest setback in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 16-year career as paramount
leader of Turkey. An earlier March 2019 contest saw Erdogan’s Justice and
Development Party (AKP) lose the mayor’s race by a whisker to the Republican
People’s Party (CHP) reformist candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu. Not used to being
crossed, the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan demanded a rerun due to the
narrow margin of victory — just 13,000 votes — and bullied the Turkish electoral
board into doing his bidding. At the time, it seemed merely another dreary step
on the road to Erdogan’s eclipsing the rest of Turkish society.
But a funny thing happened on the road to cynicism. The people of Istanbul,
enraged at this obvious insult to their choice, rallied around Imamoglu,
bequeathing him a far more convincing 54 to 45 percent victory in the June 23
recount. Erdogan’s hubristic miscalculation has turned a minor setback into an
existential crisis, as his very aura of invincibility has been the major
casualty of the Istanbul election.
All this is true, but an overexcited international press has largely ignored
political risk realities. It is a fact that the Turkish opposition is in control
of cities accounting for almost 70 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product
(GDP), with nine of the 10 biggest urban areas in the country ruled for the next
five years by a mayor linked to the opposition. Istanbul itself is Turkey’s
biggest city and commercial hub, accounting for fully 31 percent of the
country’s overall GDP in 2017. The startling CHP victory ended 25 years of AKP
dominance in the city where Erdogan himself began his career, ironically as
mayor.
While this is obviously significant, on closer inspection, all this amounts to
less than meets the eye. Despite the local election results, Erdogan’s many
political enemies (accounting for restive forces within his own AKP Party, the
CHP-led opposition, and the various Kurdish parties) are not yet in any real
position to unseat him, and will struggle to do so even in four years’ time,
when the next presidential election will take place.
Fractious, divided and weak, these disparate forces are also constitutionally at
a real disadvantage. Due to Turkey’s French-style, highly-centralized system of
government, much of the funds needed to run the country’s major cities flow
directly from the presidential palace in Ankara. To put it mildly, it is
unlikely that Erdogan is going to be fiscally generous with his enemies. This
fact, coupled with his increasing control of the state bureaucracy, media, and
the military, means that a political reversal of fortunes is not, by a long way,
Erdogan’s greatest danger.
Instead, as the dust settles from the Istanbul result, the counterintuitive
primary political risk facing the Turkish president lies in the mirror.
Erdogan’s days may be numbered not due to his political problems, but due to
both his hubris and almost total ignorance of economics. It is this key and
neglected internal factor that is far more likely to bring about his downfall.
Erdogan’s hubristic miscalculation has turned a minor setback into an
existential crisis, as his very aura of invincibility has been the major
casualty of the Istanbul election.
Soon after coming to power in 2003 (first as prime minister and then as
president), Turkey underwent an economic boom, which Erdogan largely left to
others to engineer, most notably his then right-hand man (and now erstwhile
opponent) Abdullah Gul. Never very interested in economics, Erdogan has
championed an unorthodox economic model based on short-term, credit-fueled
growth, built around the construction industry and greater domestic consumption.
This long period of affluence finally broke down in 2018, in the depths of a
currency crisis that saw the Turkish lira lose 36 percent of its value against
the dollar. The respected Turkish Central Bank, in line with economic orthodoxy,
duly raised interest rates to a hair-shirted 24 percent, and the crisis abated
somewhat.
Erdogan, horrified that the party was over, railed against his able central
bank, urging — in defiance of all economic history — interest rate cuts instead.
While the bank prevailed, the damage was done, both in terms of Erdogan’s
reputation for competence and for the very notion of the central bank’s
independence.
And the dire economic results have become ever clearer. At the very time
investor nervousness about Erdogan’s erratic behavior has crested, Turkey has to
service around $275 billion in foreign currency-denominated debt. The country
endured a technical recession at the end of 2018. Unemployment has increased
from 8.4 percent in January 2012 to a dangerous 14.7 percent in February 2019.
Also, the populace is hurting due to inflation rates hovering at about 20
percent. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Turkish GDP will decrease in
2019 by a steep 2.3 percent.
Not even the imperious president of Turkey can evade the reality of these
economic numbers forever. By not fixing the roof while the sun shines — by not
undergoing structural economic reform while he had the chance during the
decade-long Turkish economic boom just concluded — Erdogan will now have to
govern a very different country, unused to the hard times it undoubtedly faces.
It is this economic reality, far more than the temporary triumph of opposition
politicians, that is the stake pointed at the heart of a man who until recently
was considered politically indestructible.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman
Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also
senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be
contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.co
Before Israel is dragged into a U.S.-Iran war
جيورا أيلند/يدعوت احرونوت/ خطوات يتوجب على إسرائيل أخذها قبل أن تجر إلى حزب بين
إيران وأميركا/29 حزيران
Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/June 29/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76214/%d8%ac%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%86%d8%af-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%ae%d8%b7%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%ac%d8%a8/
Opinion: There are steps that the Jewish state could take to diffuse the
tensions on its borders, preempting any efforts by Tehran to punish the United
States by triggering a proxy Middle East war
Israel is following the events in the Persian Gulf with great interest.
The source of the tensions is the American decision to leave the 2015 nuclear
deal without negotiations – a decision unwelcome in Tehran because of the great
damage it would cause. And in reality this had, from Iran's perspective, two
negative consequences.
First, many European companies began to avoid doing business in Iran - even
though the British, German, French, and Italian governments stayed committed to
the deal - because they understood that their bread is buttered in the American
sphere.
Second, Washington threatened sanctions on countries that continued to buy
Iranian oil. Since the oil market is sophisticated and the prices are almost
homogenous, more and more of Iran's clients began to buy from other suppliers.
These two repercussions have hurt and are continuing to hurt the Iranian
economy, which is floundering even more than was initially predicted. As such,
Iran was faced with a choice of resigning itself to this bitter new reality, or
begin a military confrontation with the U.S.
In the end, Iran decided to take the middle road, and is trying to harm American
interests in the region in the hopes that this will strengthen its own standing.
This direction included, on the one hand, the defiant statement that Iran would
begin to enrich uranium to 20 percent, a blatant violation of the nuclear pact,
and on the other hand, allowing its allies in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, to
increase their sabotage of American and Saudi interests.
When these steps seemed insufficient, Iran chose more daring action: damaging
oil tankers and even shooting down an expensive American drone. Given the
initial decision by President Donald Trump to retaliate, it should now be clear
to everyone that further Iranian aggression will lead to an American response,
and probably one that is even more destructive than the aborted mission.
As the escalation in the Gulf grows, so do the chances that Israel will be
dragged into a military confrontation. The chances of a direct Iranian attack on
the Jewish state are small, but the Iranians can act in other ways.
They can hit Israel from Syrian territory, where they have the ability to launch
rockets and drones, and thus raise tensions – even if their aspirations for a
permanent base on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights have been frustrated. Or,
Tehran could encourage its Palestinian proxy Islamic Jihad to fire at Israel
from the Gaza Strip.
Israelis tend to speak about Gaza's militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad in
the same way, but the differences between them are large.
Hamas is first and foremost a political organization that acts as the government
of Gaza, and therefore its calculus is complex. Islamic Jihad on the other hand
is nothing more than a terror group, without no political responsibility for its
actions, and thus it is the more trigger-happy of the two.
Islamic Jihad is controlled and financed by Iran and while it is small in
comparison to Hamas, it has the means to easily drag Israel and Gaza into a full
military contest. A third possibility for the Iranians is the most dangerous of
all: to unleash the Lebanon-based Hezbollah terror group on Israel. Hezbollah's
leader Hassan Nasrallah isn't interested in doing this, but as long as Iran
funds most of his budget, he'll have a hard time refusing.
In the meantime, Israel can only watch this drama unfold, but it could take two
steps to prevent unnecessary violence. First, it could be generous and come to
an agreement with Hamas on Gaza, which would help the latter avoid a flare up
initiated by Islamic Jihad. Second, Israel could reach an agreement with Lebanon
about the maritime border between the countries, and thus undercut Nasrallah's
pretext of attacking Israel in "the Lebanese national interests."
*Major General (res.) Giora Eiland is the former head of the Israeli National
Security Council and the IDF's Strategic Planning