English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 26/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you ask, it will be done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are gathered in my name, I am there among them
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 18/15-20:”‘If another member of the church sins against you, go and point out the fault when the two of you are alone. If the member listens to you, you have regained that one. But if you are not listened to, take one or two others along with you, so that every word may be confirmed by the evidence of two or three witnesses. If the member refuses to listen to them, tell it to the church; and if the offender refuses to listen even to the church, let such a one be to you as a Gentile and a tax-collector. Truly I tell you, whatever you bind on earth will be bound in heaven, and whatever you loose on earth will be loosed in heaven. Again, truly I tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you ask, it will be done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are gathered in my name, I am there among them.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 25-26/2020
National Meeting confirms cessation of incitement campaigns which would stir strife
Baabda Conferees: Lebanon Crisis More Dangerous than War
Aoun: Baabda Meeting Aims to Prevent Disruption, Civil Peace a Red Line
Baabda 'National Unity' Talks Begin
Bassil Says 'Rejection of Dialogue' Harms Lebanon, Not Govt. or Presidency
In Baabda, PSP Rejects Economic Unity with Syria and Some 'Eastern' States
Suleiman Criticizes Hizbullah, Ferzli and Raad Reply
Govt. to Launch Money Exchange Electronic Platform on Friday
Report: Sunni, Christian Opposition Boycott Baabda Meeting
Wazni: Talks with IMF are Positive
Aoun Warns Against Stirring Up Sectarian Tensions, Paris Disturbed by Govt Performance
Lebanon's Berri Calls For Declaring State of Financial Emergency
Lebanon: Arresting Opposition Activists Possibly Linked to 'Political Revenge'
Lebanon’s National Dialogue showcases disunity
Lebanese demonstrate on road to presidential palace, oppose ‘National Dialogue’
Students, Faculty at Risk in Crisis-hit American University of Beirut
Kosovo designates Hezbollah as a terrorist entity
The Calculations of Lebanon’s Shiite Duo/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 25/2020
The axis of evil is in free fall/Prof. Eyal Zisser/Israel Hayom/June 25/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 25-26/2020
Treasury Sanctions Five Iranian Captains Who Delivered Gasoline to the Maduro Regime in Venezuela
U.S. puts sanctions on five Iranian ship captains for bringing oil to Venezuela
U.S. Makes Case For Maintaining Arms Embargo On Iran, Citing 'Malign Activity'
Iran: COVID-19 Death Toll Passes 10,000
Israel Resumes Pursuit of Iranian Presence in Syria Amid Russian Silence
10 New Elements In The Israeli Bombing
UN Envoy Warns Israeli Annexation Could Unleash Mideast Violence
Gantz Attacks Palestinian Leadership, Proposes to Meet With Abbas
IMF, Sudan Reach Reform Deal
Iran TV Airs 355 Coerced Confessions Over Decade to Intimidate Activists
US Doubles Reward for ISIS Leader
Brussels Conference to Discuss Refugees Crisis, Political Solution in Syria
Conflict of Interest Haunts Tunisia’s PM
Washington Pushes for Resumption of Talks on GERD
Up to 8% of U.S. Population Has Been Infected with Virus
Trump adviser: Arab backlash against annexation plan is “overblown”

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 25-26/2020
Cratering Economy Drives Iranian Rial to All-Time Low/Saeed Ghasseminejad/ Policy Brief-FDD/June 25/2020
Iran’s rulers (still) seek nuclear weapons/Yet more evidence that those who despise us can’t be bought off/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/June 25/2020
Could Iran’s air force ever be a threat to Israel or Europe?/Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 25/2020
Palestinians: Is It Really about 'Annexation'?/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June 25/2020
How to Deal with China?: "Made in America"/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/June 25/2020
International community must act on Iran’s nuclear defiance/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 25/2020
Iran may be passing troublemaking baton to Turkey/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 25/2020
Trump tears up traditional US approach to Europe/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/June 25/2020
Canada’s UN Security Council defeat a victory for international law/Fr. Robert Assaly/Arab News/June 25/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 25-26/2020
National Meeting confirms cessation of incitement campaigns which would stir strife
NNA /June 25/2020
The National Meeting, held today at Baabda Palace, unanimously agreed to halt all kinds of campaigns which would stir discord, threaten civil peace, and destabilize internal security. The meeting was held at the invitation of President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, and attended by Parliament Speaker, Nabih Berri, Prime Minister, Hassan Diab in addition to leaders and heads of Parliamentary blocs.
Attendees considered that the freedom of expression, which is protected in the text of the constitution, should be exercised within the limits of the law, which criminalizes insults, and infringement of dignities and other personal freedoms.
Although attendees considered that a democratic life is not just without the presence of an opposition, especially parliamentary ones, they stressed that the violent opposition that cuts the nation's ties and harms public and private property does not fall within the category of democratic and peaceful opposition.
Then, conferees affirmed the necessity, "To unify attitudes towards ways to address the economic, financial and monetary crisis and its social repercussions by adopting a final path for structural reforms in public finances and the adoption of the International Monetary Fund program if agreed to its reform conditions".
For his side, President Aoun had started the meeting with a speech in which he said that he was hoping to include all parties and political forces, considering that what happened in recent weeks should be a warning to everyone to be alert to all security threats. "There are those who take advantage of people's anger, and their legitimate demands, in order to generate violence and chaos, to achieve suspicious foreign agendas with the political gains of parties inside" the President asserted.
And while President Aoun explained that the political difference is at the basis of a democratic life, he stressed that its roof remains civil peace "And no matter how tense the speeches are, we should not allow any spark to ignite it".
In addition, the President stressed that "Unity around critical options is a necessity, we have to unite hands in facing sedition and fortifying civil peace so that we do not enter into a tunnel from which there is no exit. This is the true red line, and there will be no tolerance with those who try to pass it".
For his part, Prime Minister Diab considered that the country is not okay but the treatment is a national responsibility, not only the responsibility of a government that came out of the rubble of the crisis, or the responsibility of previous governments that were hiding the crisis, but everyone today is concerned with contributing to the rescue workshop, stressing that "We do not have the luxury of time for bidding, settling scores and achieving political gains".
PM Diab considered that "Nothing will remain in the country to compete for if this rift, estrangement and free battles persist", and called for this meeting to be "The beginning of a broad national action, from which a committee that monitors communications under the dome of the Parliament, with all political forces, and civil society, to submit recommendations to this meeting again under the auspices of the President of the Republic".
The "National Gathering" was attended by Speaker Berri and Prime Minister Diab, former President Michel Suleiman, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elie Al-Ferzly, Head of the Mountain Guarantee Bloc, MP Talal Arslan, Head of the National Social Bloc MP, Assaad Hardan, Head of the Strong Lebanese Bloc, MP Gebran Bassil, Representative of the Consultative Meeting Bloc, MP Faysal Karami, Head of the Armenian Representatives Bloc, MP Hagop Pakradounian, Head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, Head of the Democratic Gathering Bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt.
President Aoun's Speech:
"Esteemed audience,
Welcome and thank you for attending this meeting which only bears one title: "the protection of stability and civil peace", especially in light of recent developments.
I was therefore hoping that all the country's parties and political forces would join us because civil peace is a 'red line' and all the wills are supposed to converge in order to reinforce it, since it is the responsibility of everyone and does not solely befall one individual, no matter how highly he is ranked, neither one party, nor one actor.
What happened on the streets in the past weeks, especially in Tripoli, Beirut and Ain El Remmaneh, must sound the alarm for us all to sense the security dangers that have tried to ignite sedition by pulling the trigger of social demands. And it seemed obvious that some were using the people's anger and legitimate demands to sow violence and chaos, in view of fulfilling suspicious external agendas while scoring political gains for internal parties.
We have alarmingly had a brush with the atmosphere of civil war and movements were suspiciously launched, loaded with confessional and sectarian feud and mobilizing emotions; moreover violence, violation of public and private properties, contempt against religions and abusive language have been portrayed as a legitimate right for the perpetrators.
In view of such an unprecedented chaos, charging spirits and reverting to the obsolete language of war which was dearly paid for by Lebanon in the past, and based on my constitutional responsibilities, I had to call for this inclusive national meeting to put a definitive end to this dangerous security derailment.
Political divergence is healthy and at the core of democratic life, but its ceiling remains civil peace which cannot be crossed. No matter how heated the rhetoric may be, we must not allow any spark to slip out of it, because putting out the fire is not as easy as starting it, especially if it gets out of control; and this is the responsibility of all of us, attendees and absentees alike.
Today, our country is going through the worst financial and economic crisis, and our people are experiencing daily suffering, fearing for their lifelong savings, concerned for their future, desperate about losing their jobs and their decent living.
I say it loud and clear, no rescue is possible if some continue to easily tamper with security, manipulate the street, mobilize confessional and sectarian sensitivities, put spokes in the wheels and chime with some external parties which are striving to turn Lebanon into a field to settle accounts and score advantages by starving, terrorizing and strangling people economically.
If we think that collapse will spare anyone, we are mistaken;
Or that hunger and unemployment have a confessional or political color, we are delusional;
Or that violence on the streets is like strings that we manipulate anytime we want and stop by our own will, we are overlooking the lessons of the recent past, as well as those of the region and the neighborhood.
Before the vital challenges that Lebanon is facing and amid the regional turbulence, the tall waves that are hitting our shores, and the perils that may stem from the legislation called the "Caesar Act", unity around decisive choices is imperative.
Our aim from this meeting today is only to promote this unity and prevent chaos.
Yes, the difference of opinion is a human right and an intellectual incentive; yet, we have to stick together, hand in hand, in countering sedition and consolidating civil peace in order not to enter a tunnel with no way out.
This is the real red line and we will have zero-tolerance for those who try to cross it!
Thank you".
Prime Minister Diab's Speech:
"Firstly, I would like to thank the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, for this call, which carries a high degree of national responsibility in pushing towards a meeting of the Lebanese in a dialogue which obstructs the thunderbolts of sedition and seeks exits for the current deep crises in the country.
The Lebanese are anxiously looking to the future, because the present is confused and because the economic, social and living conditions leave behind black shadows, painful tragedies and a social groove, which some fail to notice.
Yes, the country is not okay.
How can the homeland be fine while citizens are hungry?!
This is a description of chronic reality, however treatment is a national responsibility, not only the responsibility of a Government that came to the ruins of the crisis, and managed to reduce the impact on the reserve and contain all repercussions, when it decided boldly to stop paying debts, which neared 4.6 Billion US Dollars this year. Imagine the result if we had paid this amount from Lebanese reserves!
Moreover, the remedy is not only the responsibility of previous Governments that were hiding this crisis, then this Government came to boldly reveal the numbers of accumulated financial losses transparently, in the context of a financial rescue plan, which is the first in Lebanese history.
Today, everyone is interested in contributing to the rescue workshop. We don't have the luxury of time to settle scores and gain political points. Nothing will remain in Lebanon to compete for if this rupture continues.
We are going through a crucial stage in Lebanese history, which requires us to join efforts, provide the country's interest and prioritize the logic of the state, in order to be able to reduce the extent of the damages which may be disastrous.
Let me speak frankly, the Lebanese do not expect fruitful results from this meeting.
In the Lebanese view, this meeting will be like previous ones, and after this meeting will be like before, and perhaps worse.
Today, the Lebanese only care about one thing: How much will the Dollar rate be? Is it not the truth?
The Lebanese will not scrutinize the terms we have included in our speeches. No longer care what we say. They only care what we will do. And I admit and reassure: our words have no value if we do not translate them into actions that relieve the Lebanese from burdens.
The Lebanese want the judiciary to act against corruption and the corrupt. The Lebanese want the Central Bank to control the Dollar exchange rate vs the Lebanese Pound, and save the value of their salaries and savings. This is what the Lebanese want, and this is what we are supposed to be all responsible for achieving. Proceeding from that, I call, with all love, that this meeting be the beginning of a broad national action, from which a committee that follows communications under the dome of the Parliament emerges, with all political forces and civil society bodies to submit recommendations to this meeting again, and under the auspices of His Excellency the President of the Republic.
May God help us for the good of Lebanon, and the Lebanese to cross this difficult ordeal which pressures our homeland.
Long Live Lebanon and the Lebanese".
Meeting Statement:
After the meeting, former Minister, Salim Jreisatti, read the meeting's statement:
"At the invitation of His Excellency, President Michel Aoun, a national meeting was held today, Thursday 25th of June 2020, at Baabda Palace. The meeting was attended by: Parliament Speaker, Nabih Berri, Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, former President Michel Sleiman, Parliament Speaker Deputy, Elie Ferzly, head of Mountain Guarantee Bloc, MP Talal Arslan, head of the National Social Bloc, MP Assaad Hardan, head of Strong Lebanon Bloc, MP Gebran Bassil, Representative of the Consultative Gathering Bloc, MP Faisal Karameh, head of the Armenian Representatives Bloc, MP Hagop Pakradounian, head of Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, and head of the Democratic Gathering Bloc, MP Timor Joumblat.
The meeting tackled the general situation in the country, especially the security situation after recent developments which took place two weeks ago, in Beirut and Tripoli.
It was agreed on the following:
First: Security stability is the basis for, but rather a condition for, political, economic, social, financial and monetary stability. As for confronting sedition, and sectarian charging, in preparation for chaos, it is a collective responsibility in which all components of the society and its political components are shared.
Accordingly, the meeting called for stopping all kinds of provocative campaigns that would provoke sedition, threaten civil peace and destabilize internal security which was achieved due to the awareness of those responsible for the country's capabilities and the efforts of the military and security forces, and their preemptive and field response to terrorism, its cells and the abolitionist idea.
Second: Freedom of expression is safeguarded in the forefront of the constitution and its body, provided that this freedom is exercised within the limits of the law that criminalizes insults and infringement of dignities, and other personal freedoms. The limit of freedom is the truth and there is no limit to it except freedom of the other and respecting the law.
Third: Democratic life in our parliamentary constitutional system does not exist without the presence of the opposition, especially the Parliamentary opposition, and the right to demonstrate and express protected by the constitution and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; This is because the people are the source of authorities, but the violent opposition which cuts down the homeland and harms its children and public and private properties does not fall into the category of democratic and peaceful opposition. In times of existential crises, the Government and the opposition meet and work together to save the country from any threat it encountered.
Fourth: Lebanon is undergoing a complex and worsening crisis, political, economic, financial, social and health, however this crisis will not overcome Lebanese will, and the people's will not be defeated by it. We derive from the history of Lebanon a system of moral and patriotic values that we rely on and find in it a safe haven against fragmentation, dispersal and fighting. It is a crisis that is more dangerous than war, and in times of major crises we must all take political action to the national level, bypassing authoritarian considerations. The people are not hostile to themselves nor hostile to their homeland, and we all must bear the responsibilities resulting from this equation.
Fifth: Building on this meeting to start from consensual research, without prohibitions, but by upholding the common national interest in order to deal with the spirit of responsibility and understanding the joints of the big differences that fuel our divisions, so we seek together to unify positions or shortening distances between positions, at least on the entity and existential issues that relate to our country's unity and the permanence of our state, which includes:
- Ways to address the economic, financial and monetary crisis and its social repercussions by adopting a final path for structural reforms (in our public finances) and the adoption of the International Monetary Fund program if we agreed on its reform conditions because they do not conflict with our interest and sovereignty and by seriously fighting corruption on the rights of depositors and our free economic system, and making this system productive as stated in our constitution.
- The development that must be adopted in our political system in order to be more viable and productive in the context of implementing the constitution, and developing it in terms of bridging the gaps and implementing what has not been achieved from the National Accord Document.
- The main issues related to the supreme Lebanese interest in terms of affirming the position of Lebanon and its role in its surroundings and the world as a bridge between the East and West and a convergence area of religions and beliefs, and the implications of all foreign policies affecting this identity (Arab) and its location (unifying) such as Caesar's Law and the issue of displacement, settlement, and execution of the Palestinian cause, with its destructive effects on Lebanon, and its interaction with its surroundings.
President Michel Suleiman expressed his reservations on the statement".
Tripartite meeting:
The national meeting was preceded by a meeting between President Aoun Speaker Berri and PM Diab, during which the latest developments were deliberated.
Former President Suleiman:
After the meeting, President Suleiman spoke to the journalists and said:
"I thanked President Aoun for the invitation to this meeting, and I wished at the beginning of the President of the Republic to adjourn the session after delivering his speech for further consultations without issuing a statement except briefly, in order to collect the components that did not attend today. I do not speak about the charter, as there is disagreement about who is my charter and who is not my charter, but there are components who represent a large segment of the Lebanese people because democracy, the parliament and the cabinet are one issue, and dialogue is another. Dialogue includes all segments of society.
The core of my request is to return to the Baabda Declaration. On this basis, and although the statement contains some good points, all of which were mentioned in this Declaration, I objected to it because no dialogue begins except from where the previous dialogue ended. Baabda's billboard was hung here in the October 22 Hall, Independence Hall, but it was burned. But if it burned, does that mean it ended? The document is in the United Nations and the Arab League. I ask His Excellency, the President and those present with love, to come back to adopt this document, otherwise we have no salvation. In economics, I am neither a specialist nor a member of it. In civil peace, we saw that people accepted each other after the motorcycle issue, and all popular officials denounced and mobilized to prevent attacks. Therefore, we do not need a meeting here, but rather a decision by the President, the government, and the security apparatuses to take necessary measures, and I do not think that anyone wants chaos in Lebanon. We are not under any illusion that the civil peace has been shaken. It shook because the currency collapsed, but the collapse of the currency is not fixed by settling accounts, but by public policy. The policy that we follow does not take us to an economy and it changes everything".
MP Hardan:
After the meeting, Representative Hardan made the following statement:
"We consider that all discussions took place on how to strengthen national unity and civil peace, with full description that civil peace is threatened in the country. And security here is a broad title related to individual security, food security, and national security and how to address these situations. The Lebanese are very concerned about their present and future. We consider this to be the most important element of division and collision. What is required is to get out of this matter and for that reason the discussion today touched on some points that came under the title of implementing the constitution. The issues that were raised aside were not on the agenda. The interlocutors have the right to put forth what they want and what they want, but the main title was about how to promote civil peace and national unity, while seriously thinking that Lebanon had put its head for a long time in the sand.
We discussed all issues in terms of what the state must bear to confront Caesar's law repercussions, and this new blockade on Lebanon, which our country has to face in order to secure Lebanese interests. Our country must open a network of relations starting from Syria to the entire Arab world. Lebanon is an Arab country and Syria is an Arab country, and these channels are supposed to be opened in favor of Lebanon. Today we are called to move in this direction, because all these matters promote national unity and civil peace.
The Lebanese need stability and do not need inflammatory slogans for strife, collision and division. What is required is Lebanon's exit from this crisis, and this is through the implementation of constitutional texts".
Deputy of Parliament Speaker:
Then Deputy of the Parliament Speaker, Elie Al-Ferzly stated that the news about a dispute concerning the defense strategy and Baabda Agreement occurring with him, then Muhammad Raad, and turned into a heated debate with former President Suleiman, is totally incorrect and unfounded.
"It is not time to transform such dialogue platforms into platforms to gain immediate and interim popularities. The dialogue was on how to fortify civil peace in Lebanon, and this is a matter of the utmost importance and necessity. It is the goal and therefore everything must be devoted to serving this goal, in addition to the means that should be pursued through dialogue. The focus was on the necessity of continuing the dialogue". ----Presidency Press Office

Baabda Conferees: Lebanon Crisis More Dangerous than War
Naharnet/June 25/2020
The participants in the Baabda national meeting called for by President Michel Aoun warned that Lebanon's multifaceted crisis is "more dangerous than war.""A stable security situation is the basis, or rather the prerequisite, of political, economic, social, financial and monetary stability," the meeting's closing statement said. "Confronting strife and sectarian incitement is a collective responsibility in which all of society's elements and political components must take part," the statement added. As for the dire economic and financial situations, the statement said Lebanon is going through "a complicated and aggravating political, economic, financial, social and health crisis." "But it will not defeat the will of the Lebanese and the people will not be the defeated party," the statement added, while describing the crisis as "more dangerous than war."The conferees added that "a final course for structural reforms in our public finances must be endorsed.""The program of the International Monetary Fund must be adopted, if we agree to its reform conditions should they not contradict with our interest and sovereignty," they said. They also called for combating corruption in a serious manner and preserving the rights of bank depositors and "the free economic system that is stipulated by the constitution while making it productive."The meeting was boycotted by the political opposition parties except for the Progressive Socialist Party and ex-president Michel Suleiman.

Aoun: Baabda Meeting Aims to Prevent Disruption, Civil Peace a Red Line
Naharnet/June 25/2020
President Michel Aoun said the meeting he invited Lebanese officials to on Thursday bears a major “protection of stability and civil peace”, mainly after the recent developments in the country. “I was hoping that all the country’s parties and political forces would join us because civil peace is a ‘red line’ and all the wills are supposed to converge in order to reinforce it, since it is the responsibility of everyone and does not solely befall one individual, no matter how highly he is ranked, neither one party, nor one actor,” said Aoun at the beginning of a “national unity” meeting at the Presidential Palace. “What happened on the streets in the past weeks, especially in Tripoli, Beirut and Ain el-Rummaneh, must sound the alarm for us all to sense the security dangers that have tried to ignite sedition by pulling the trigger of social demands. And it seemed obvious that some were using the people’s anger and legitimate demands to sow violence and chaos, in view of fulfilling suspicious external agendas while scoring political gains for internal parties,”he added. We have alarmingly had a brush with the atmosphere of civil war and movements were suspiciously launched, loaded with confessional and sectarian feud and mobilizing emotions; moreover violence, violation of public and private properties, contempt against religions and abusive language have been portrayed as a legitimate right for the perpetrators. The President added: “In view of such an unprecedented chaos, I had to call for this inclusive national meeting to put a definitive end to this dangerous security derailment.”Stressing the need to maintain civil peace, he added saying that “political divergence is healthy and at the core of democratic life, but its ceiling remains civil peace which cannot be crossed. No matter how heated the rhetoric may be, we must not allow any spark to slip out of it, because putting out the fire is not as easy as starting it, especially if it gets out of control; and this is the responsibility of all of us, attendees and absentees alike.”Pointing to Lebanon’s crippling economic and financial crisis, he said: “Today, our country is going through the worst financial and economic crisis, and our people are experiencing daily suffering, fearing for their lifelong savings, concerned for their future, desperate about losing their jobs and their decent living. I say it loud and clear, no rescue is possible if some continue to easily tamper with security, manipulate the street, mobilize confessional and sectarian sensitivities.
Before the vital challenges that Lebanon is facing and amid the regional turbulence, the tall waves that are hitting our shores, and the perils that may stem from the legislation called the “Caesar Act”, unity around decisive choices is imperative.
Our aim from this meeting today is only to promote this unity and prevent chaos.”

Baabda 'National Unity' Talks Begin
Naharnet/June 25/2020
A “national unity” meeting in Baabda kicked off on Thursday in the presence of the Lebanese government and its internal allies, and the boycott of opposition parties, as protesters gathered on the road to the Presidential Palace chanting slogans against the ruling authority. The meeting, which came at the request of President Michel Aoun, meant to safeguard “civil peace,” was boycotted by leaders of the Christian parties opposed to the presidential term including the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, Marada. Former President Emile Lahhoud also decided not to attend. Former PMs Saad Hariri, Najib Miqati, Fouad Seniora and Tammam Salam all boycotted the meeting. The attendees include former President Michel Suleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Hassan Diab, Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli, PSP leader Walid Jumblat represented by his son Taymour Jumblat, FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc Mohammed Raad, Lebanese Democratic Party chief Talal Arslan, Head of the Tashnag party Hagop Pakradounian, Consultative Gathering bloc MP Faysal Karami, Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party MP Asaad Hardan. A tripartite meeting between Aoun, Berri and Diab preceded the meeting. In response to a question, Speaker Berri renewed calls for the immediate declaration of a state of financial emergency in Lebanon.

Bassil Says 'Rejection of Dialogue' Harms Lebanon, Not Govt. or Presidency
Naharnet/June 25/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday criticized the parties that boycotted the Baabda national meeting. “Those who believe that their rejection of dialogue would expose the government, the Presidency or a certain group are rather stripping Lebanon of the essence of its existence, especially if dialogue’s objective is to prevent strife,” Bassil said in his remarks at the meeting. He lamented that some are using “the deterioration of the lira exchange rate as a tool to starve the people.”“This is the financial war that we are talking about. Some are leading it skilfully in order to impede the government and the Presidency and topple the State,” Bassil charged. “Resolving the dollar crisis is the responsibility of the central bank, and the current approach is not the right one,” he added. Turning to Hassan Diab’s government, Bassil decried that “there is a noticeable drop in the government’s productivity.” The government is “like a bicycle; it falls the moment you stop pedaling,” he added. Bassil also reiterated his call for distributing the financial losses in the country in a “fair manner.”

In Baabda, PSP Rejects Economic Unity with Syria and Some 'Eastern' States
Naharnet/June 25/2020
A memo was submitted Thursday to the Baabda dialogue meeting by the representative of the Progressive Socialist Party and the Democratic Gathering, MP Taymour Jumblat. Jumblat left the meeting after delivering brief remarks and presenting the memo. The memo rejects "reviving the 'unity of tracks' theory, this time from the gate of the economy." "Lebanon cannot withstand the economy of two states," it says. Noting that proposals for "developing economic ties with China are worthy of studying and follow-up," the memo welcomes "any serious Chinese suggestions to build a new power plant in Lebanon."
Commenting on Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's call for "turning to the East" economically, the memo rejects "linking Lebanon to states and regimes that are outside the international system, some which are going in the opposite direction of the movement of history."

Suleiman Criticizes Hizbullah, Ferzli and Raad Reply
Naharnet/June 25/2020
Former President Michel Suleiman lashed out at Hizbullah and the Resistance during the “national unity meeting” in Baabda, which prompted a reply from Hizbullah Loyal to the Resistance bloc MP Mohammed Raad, and Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli, media reports said on Thursday. “Hizbullah has broken the agreements, which prevented the implementation of the state's pledges, caused its deadly isolation, made it lose its credibility and the confidence of friendly countries and Lebanese living abroad, made it lose investors, depositors and tourists, which have all contributed to the decline of the national currency,” said Suleiman. Raad and Ferzli made a prompt reply according to reports defending the Resistance and its weapons. Raad also criticized the Baabda Declaration which seeks to maintain Lebanon's neutrality regarding regional conflicts.
The Baabda Declaration, approved during a national dialogue session in June 2012, calls for Lebanon to disassociate itself from regional conflicts.

Govt. to Launch Money Exchange Electronic Platform on Friday
Naharnet/June 25/2020
The government will on Friday launch the electronic platform for money exchange shops, the information minister said. “Prime Minister Hassan Diab stressed that the country is going through a major crisis… and that the central bank is responsible for the dollar exchange rate,” Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad added after a Cabinet session at the Grand Serail. If the central bank “lacks the ability to address the exchange rate situation, it should be frank with us,” Diab added, according to the minister. Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni meanwhile made an intervention about the issue of controlling the exchange rate, emphasizing “the importance of following up on the issue, amid the inaccurate numbers that are being published about the exchange rate.”

Report: Sunni, Christian Opposition Boycott Baabda Meeting
Naharnet/June 25/2020
The “national unity meeting” convened at the Presidential Palace in the absence of former prime ministers, leaders of Christian parties opposed to the presidential term and in the absence of the second largest parliamentary bloc in the Lebanese Parliament, al-Mustaqbal bloc, Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday. President Michel Aoun chairs the meeting in the presence of Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Hassan Diab and a number of heads of parties and parliamentary blocs. Former President Michel Suleiman attended the meeting in addition to Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli, PSP leader Walid Jumblat, FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc Mohammed Raad, Lebanese Democratic party chief Talal Arslan, Head of Tashnag party Agob Pakradonian, Consultative Gathering bloc MP Faysal Karami, Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party MP Asaad Hardan. According to media reports, the meeting will focus on the latest developments in the country, mainly the violent incidents in Tripoli and Beirut two weeks ago that almost rattled civil peace. The meeting will also discuss a number of issues to determine the participants’ viewpoint regarding them, said the daily. A statement will be issued after the meeting confirming the points agreed. Presidential media office chief Rafik Chlala said: “The meeting affirms the national constants and protects civil peace and is an achievement in itself in these difficult circumstances. This meeting is not to take decisions entrusted to the executive authority.”Political figures who said they will boycott the meeting are LF chief Samir Geagea, Kataeb party chief Sami Gemayel, Marada chief Sulieman Franjieh and Lebanon’s four ex-Prime Ministers. Geagea said the meeting should focus on major issues and described it as “misleading,” while the ex-PMs criticized Aoun’s national meeting by labeling it a “waste of time.”

Wazni: Talks with IMF are Positive
Naharnet/June 25/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said Lebanon’s bailout negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are “positive and intense,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday. “The meetings with the IMF revolve around a set of issues related to public finance, especially those related to financial and banking reform, in addition to anti-corruption,” he declared. “The atmosphere of negotiations is positive, but having these talks bear fruition is certainly our priority. The negotiations are happening at an intense pace in order to reach the desired goal,” he added. The country is seeking around $9 billion from the IMF, on top of another $11 billion in grants and loans pledged by international donors in 2018 but never released due to a lack of reform.

Aoun Warns Against Stirring Up Sectarian Tensions, Paris Disturbed by Govt Performance
Beirut- Mohammed Shokair/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun warned on Thursday of an “atmosphere of civil war” during recent unrest and what he described as attempts to stir up sectarian tensions amid an unprecedented financial crisis, Reuters reported. The president was speaking at a “national gathering” that he called for “to protect civil peace”, but which was boycotted by opponents including former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and other ex-premiers who described it as “a waste of time.”“We touched the atmosphere of civil war in a worrying way. Movements replete with sectarian tensions were launched in a suspicious manner,” Aoun said, as quoted by Reuters.Other opposition figures refused to attend the meeting, including former Minister Sleiman Franjieh, the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, the president of the Kataeb party, MP Sami Gemayel and others. Meanwhile, opposition political sources rued out that the “national gathering” would have effects that would change the country’s political scene.In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, the sources noted that the problem lied in the fact that Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government has failed, until now, to meet its promises, which is negatively reflecting on the internal situation. The sources added that Paris expressed discontent over the performance of Diab’s government, which has “failed to employ the French embrace to make a qualitative leap that would put it on the path of recovery.” They also stressed that the influential European parties were not satisfied with the role assumed by the president of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gibran Bassil, who is the target of criticism on all levels, even by a number of European ambassadors accredited to Lebanon. “These ambassadors see Bassil’s performance as an obstacle that delays translating the government’s pledges into concrete steps,” according to the sources. They revealed that Paris has decided a while ago to freeze its contacts with the Lebanese government and almost lost hope in Lebanon’s ability to implement the reforms approved in the CEDRE conference, which would affect the course of negotiations between the country and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “Paris is disappointed because Lebanon did not respond to the reform and administrative conditions that it undertook before the CEDRE participants,” the sources emphasized.

Lebanon's Berri Calls For Declaring State of Financial Emergency
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Lebanon’s Speaker Nabih Berri affirmed Wednesday the necessity to declare a state of financial emergency amid the drastic plunge of the local currency's value.
"The collapse of the Lebanese Pound's exchange rate versus the US dollar, in a suspicious and coordinated way, entails the government, the central bank and the Association of Banks in Lebanon to declare a state of financial emergency and reconsider all the procedures that have been taken to protect the local currency," Berri said. He explained that it was no longer acceptable that the Lebanese remain hostages to the black markets. Berri's remarks came during an urgent meeting for Amal Movement's senior-ranking officials. Early this month, Lebanon’s central bank decided to inject US dollars in the local economy in a bid to curb the local currency’s free-fall by supporting basic goods and meeting the demands of citizens.
However, this mechanism set by the central bank failed to decrease the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound and led to an additional spike of the US dollar on the black market. On Wednesday, Lebanon's pound currency fell to new lows, trading above 6,500 to the dollar on a parallel market. The Speaker considered that Lebanon was facing "an existential challenge," and that salvation lied within the collaboration and dialogue among all the political forces. He also said that he feared the current scene was similar to that in 1982. "I do not hide my concern that we are witnessing a similar juncture with the aim of bringing Lebanon down and invading the country with different weapons," Berri warned. On the US Caesar Act, the Speaker said: "Our principal position in Amal Movement from this legislation is that of the ally who's loyal to those who stood by Lebanon and its Resistance."

Lebanon: Arresting Opposition Activists Possibly Linked to 'Political Revenge'
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
There are speculations in Lebanon that the recent arrest campaigns and charges pressed against multiple activists are part of a political retaliation to silence opposition parties and critics of the government, President Michel Aoun or Hezbollah.
“There is a campaign launched by the Lebanese authorities as an attempt to terrorize activists and impose the rule of a police state,” Ayman Raad, a lawyer working with the Lawyers' Committee for the Defense of Protesters told Asharq Al-Awsat.
In the past weeks, several activists were detained and charged with collaborating with Israel and insulting religious symbols. They were also blamed for the security events that erupted in Beirut and Tripoli during protests two weeks ago.
Others were detained in the Beqaa for taking part in the Beirut protests, while daily arrests are taking place against those who voiced anti-government political views on social media.
While Lebanese activist Kinda el-Khatib was charged Monday with collaborating with Israel, state-run National News Agency (NNA) said Shiite cleric Ali al-Amin was accused of “meeting with Israeli officials in Bahrain, attacking Hezbollah and its martyrs, inciting strife between sects, sowing discord and arousing sedition, and violating the Sharia laws of the Jaafari sect."However, NNA later updated its report saying that Amin’s case is exclusively linked to two charges: Stirring sectarian sentiments and inciting conflict between sects, and the offense of contempt of religious rituals.
The agency also said that Military Investigative Judge Najat Abu Shaqra interrogated Khatib on Wednesday over the military prosecution’s lawsuit issued against her on charges of dealing with Israel.
She later received an arrest warrant at the end of the two-hour session in the presence of her lawyer Jocelyne al-Rahi, “The recent arrest campaign against activists is arbitrary and retaliatory and it particularly targets the Beqaa area in an attempt to hold its residents responsible for what happened in Beirut two weeks ago,” Raad noted. He explained that 22 activists from the Beqaa are still detained while others were released. “There are two activists who refused to turn themselves in, four detained activists are from Tripoli while more than 45 others were summoned from across Lebanon,” the lawyer said. He said activists who oppose the authority were mainly targeted over their political views. On Wednesday, several protesters staged a sit-in outside the Palace of Justice in Beirut demanding "the release of Khatib and the rest of arrestees. NNA said protesters chanted slogans against censuring and suppressing freedom.

Lebanon’s National Dialogue showcases disunity
The Arab Weekly/June 25/2020
Emirati Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said that Lebanon’s “economic meltdown is very worrying”.
BEIRUT –The Lebanese Forces Party joined in boycotting a dialogue meeting in Baabda, while the Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt chose to hold the stick in the middle and dispatch his son, MP Taymor Jumblatt, to the conference.
The organisers of the meeting called for by Lebanese President Michel Aoun say it is intended to protect the country from discord and unite ranks to help confront the country’s dire financial crisis. However, some political forces that are boycotting the gathering argue it is simply a brainstorming session to save the ruling class, especially the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.
Aoun’s call to hold the national conference led to vetting the country’s political scene, repeating a scenario that happened following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.
During that period, Lebanon’s political class emerged as divided into two camps: Those supporting the withdrawal of Syrian forces and those backing the Syria-Iran axis. With current political tensions high, there are signs that the March 14 Coalition, formed after Hariri’s assassination, could be revived, but this time for different reasons and with a different rationale. This seems especially likely as opposition parties remain convinced that there must be deep reform in order to prevent the collapse of the country’s government and economy at a time when international pressure is piling up on Lebanon to implement such reforms and take major political steps, including the ouster of Hezbollah from power.
Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said real reforms are necessary before support is extended to the Lebanese government. He added that it must be a government that is not “beholden to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah is on the US sanctions list and Washington considers it one of Iran’s most powerful proxies in the region. “When that comes, when the government demonstrates, whoever that is, demonstrates their willingness and capacity to do that I think that not only the United States, but the whole world will come in to assist the Lebanese government get its economy back on its feet,” Pompeo said.
Iran-backed Hezbollah, designated by the US and other Arab and Western countries as a terrorist organisation, has strengthened its political position in recent years, taking root at the heart of Lebanon’s power structure.
This is one of the main reasons that the international community, especially the United States, is reluctant to provide financial support to Lebanon.
Speaking to American broadcaster CNBC on Wednesday, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said that Lebanon’s “economic meltdown is very worrying” but that the UAE would only consider offering financial support in concert with other states.
Gulf states have long channelled funds into Lebanon’s fragile economy but, like Washington, they are alarmed by the rising influence of Hezbollah, a powerful proxy of their arch-rival Iran.
“If we see some of our friends, major powers interested in Lebanon, working in a plan, we will consider that. But up to now, what we are really seeing here, is a deterioration of Lebanon’s Arab relations and Gulf relations over the past 10 years. Lebanon is partly paying the price for that right now,” Gargash said.
“We’ve seen an accumulation of problems in Lebanon and we’ve seen also a dictation of the political discourse by Hezbollah which really has an army within the state,” he added. The international community’s reluctance to come to the rescue of Lebanon raised alarms among many opposition leaders, with the head of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea calling for real action and genuine reform while snubbing the Baabda conference.
“We will not participate in a meeting whose aim is to throw dust in our eyes,” Geagea said Wednesday, adding that “Lebanese people are at odds with the authorities.”
“What’s required are decisions, not meetings, and moving the government toward making its first reform,” Geagea said. “The problem is not with the government but with the ruling class that imposes upon the government whatever it wants it to do,” he added, noting that “as long as this reality exists, there will be no state in Lebanon.”On the relationship with the former prime minister and leader of the Future Movement Saad Hariri, the leader of the Forces Party said, “contacts are constantly taking place.”

Lebanese demonstrate on road to presidential palace, oppose ‘National Dialogue’
The Arab Weekly/June 25/2020
National dialogue meeting chaired by President Michel Aoun boycotted by most of the country’s opposition parties.
BEIRUT – Hundreds of Lebanese protesters gathered Thursday morning on the road leading to the Presidential Palace in Baabda voicing their opposition to the national dialogue meeting chaired by President Michel Aoun and boycotted by most of the country’s opposition parties.
Thursday’s protest comes hours after demonstrators took to the streets across the country on Wednesday evening to denounce the dire economic and financial situation.
In the capital Beirut, protesters blocked the Ashrafieh-Hamra lane of the vital Ring highway. Scuffles later erupted between the protesters and security forces, which resulted in injuries according to al-Jadeed TV.
Other protesters, meanwhile, rallied outside the Central Bank in Hamra.
The Baabda meeting kicked off Thursday despite a large number of boycotts and nationwide demonstrations in Beirut, Bekaa, Tripoli, Akkar, Mount Lebanon and Tyre, casting doubt on any potential outcome.
The meeting, touted as a dialogue to bolster “civil peace,” was boycotted by former Prime Ministers Saad Hariri, Najib Mikati, Fouad Siniora and Tammam Salam.
Christian leaders also snubbed the Baadba talks, including the leader of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea, the leader of Marada Movement Suleiman Frangieh, leader of Kataeb Party Samy Gemayel and former President Emile Lahoud.
“We will not participate in a meeting whose aim is to throw dust in our eyes,” Geagea said Wednesday, adding that “Lebanese people are at odds with the authorities.”
Speaking at the meeting, Aoun warned of an “atmosphere of civil war” and what he described as attempts to stir up sectarian tensions as a financial crisis sweeps the country. The crisis is seen as the biggest threat to Lebanon’s stability since the 1975-90 civil war. A 75% decline in the Lebanese pound since October has been reflected in soaring prices and savers have been frozen out of their deposits.
Aoun’s comments referred partly to confrontations in Beirut earlier this month that opened old sectarian faultlines between Shia Muslims and Christians and between Shias and Sunnis. “We touched the atmosphere of civil war in a worrying way. Movements replete with sectarian tensions were launched in a suspicious manner,” Aoun said. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system requires the president to be a Maronite, the prime minister to be a Sunni and the parliament speaker to be a Shia.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab, appointed in January with backing from Aoun, the powerful Iran-backed Shia group Hezbollah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, said the exchange rate was the only concern for Lebanese.
“Lebanese want the central bank to control the dollar exchange rate vis-a-vis the Lebanese pound and to preserve the value of their salaries and savings,” he told the meeting. Lebanon’s currency continued its downward spiral Wednesday, reaching a new low before the dollar and raising such alarm that it prompted Berri to call for a state of “financial emergency.”The Lebanese pound was reportedly selling at 6,200 to the dollar, losing more than 75% of its value. The pound had been pegged at 1,500 to the dollar since 1997.
Despite government efforts to manage the currency crash — including injecting dollars into the market and setting a higher rate for specific transactions — chaos prevailed and the parallel currency market continued to thrive.
Highly indebted Lebanon is in the throes of financial and economic crises, made worse by restrictions imposed to combat the coronavirus in March.
Political rivalries have also complicated negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which the Lebanese government asked last month for $10 billion in financial assistance. Berri said the crash of the Lebanese pound is a signal for the government, the central bank and private banks to declare a “financial state of emergency” to review measures to protect the local currency. He didn’t elaborate but called the crash “dubious and coordinated.”“It is unacceptable to leave the Lebanese hostages to the black market for the foreign currency, food, medicine and fuel,” Berri said. “Lebanese politicians would be mistaken if they think that the IMF or any donor country can give us any one penny of assistance if we don’t implement reforms.”
Berri said Lebanon has become a “bottomless basket” that no one wants to help.
Reflecting the dire straits Lebanon is facing, traditional donors to the state, including Gulf and European countries, have asked for major reforms before dispensing any assistance.Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo repeated the same line, adding that real reforms are necessary before support is extended to the government. He added that it must be a government that is not “beholden to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah is on the US sanctions list and Washington considers it one of Iran’s most powerful proxies in the region.
“When that comes, when the government demonstrates, whoever that is, demonstrates their willingness and capacity to do that I think that not only the United States but the whole world will come in to assist the Lebanese government get its economy back on its feet,” Pompeo said.

Students, Faculty at Risk in Crisis-hit American University of Beirut
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 25/2020
Deprived of a crucial student loan because of Lebanon's economic collapse, Ali is struggling to save his seat at the American University of Beirut, itself gripped by the crisis. Since it was founded in 1866 by Protestant missionaries from the United States, AUB has become one of the most prestigious universities in the Middle East, producing generations of leaders, artists, and intellectuals. But AUB president Fadlo Khuri says with Lebanon's economy tanking, the university is facing "perhaps its greatest crisis", and plans to dismiss up to a quarter of its 6,500-strong workforce. The student body is also suffering, with capital controls and devaluation of the Lebanese pound making it increasingly difficult to pay tuition -- that can amount to tens of thousands of dollars."I am going to have to pay more than $12,000 for next year," said 19-year-old Ali, whose family owns a small pharmacy in a southern Beirut suburb. Before the crisis, the economics student only had to pay $6,000 each year, with his scholarship and a bank loan covering 70 percent of his fees. But Ali's bank informed him in December that it would cancel the loan, and the Lebanese pound has now lost 75 percent of its official value on the black market. "My father's purchasing power has dropped... but he won't let me leave AUB," Ali said. "He is sixty years old and he still works hard."
'Minimise impact'
For decades the Lebanese pound was pegged at 1,507 to the dollar, but that rate now stands at more than 6,000 with informal money changers. For the upcoming semester, AUB will commit to the official rate for tuition payments, but it may have to adopt a new rate if the unofficial devaluation persists. Situated on a lush hill overlooking the Mediterranean, AUB's campus is an oasis of greenery in the heart of the bustling city. Old stone buildings and futuristic architecture stand above a massive football field, a tennis court and an indoor pool. British-Iraqi architect Zaha Hadid, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and countless regional leaders over the decades are among its alumni. Hassan Diab taught at AUB before becoming Lebanon's latest prime minister earlier this year. But more than half of the 9,000-strong student body at AUB, which has been at the heart of every major social movement in the country's history, benefit from financial aid. "The university is going to take a hit in the next phase," said dean of students Talal Nizameddin, promising increased financial aid for the neediest students. The US government recently pledged $10 million to help the ailing institution.
Leaving Lebanon
AUB has weathered crises in the past. During the 1975-1990 civil war, one of its presidents was killed and another kidnapped. But the university has never edged so close to collapse. "It's an extremely serious crisis because AUB has never before had to lay off people," president Khuri told AFP. AUB will cut up to 25 percent of jobs, mostly administrative positions, particularly in its hospital, which has shelved expansion plans. University leadership will take voluntary pay cuts of up to 25 percent, but faculty and staff will receive a portion of their salary in dollars.
"We want to keep them," Khuri said of the university's educators. "This is the best faculty in terms of impact in the Arab world, the quality of the publications." Two professors told AFP however that they felt frustrated by management's handling of the crisis, and said some staff were planning to leave. "The best and brightest are going to apply abroad," said Charles Harb, a professor in political and social psychology who has been with AUB for 18 years. Students are also cutting short their studies. After his father lost his job as a bank executive last year, 19-year-old Osama abandoned a business minor that would have required an extra year's study."I decided to graduate in four years" instead of five, said the computer and communication engineering student, who has to pay almost $17,000 a year on top of a scholarship. Osama says he no longer sees a future for himself in his home country, and is instead looking for a consulting job in the Gulf."A year ago, I would have answered of course I want to stay in Lebanon," he said. "But in the end, it's not a question of what I want anymore."

Kosovo designates Hezbollah as a terrorist entity
The Jerusalem Post/June 25/2020
جمهورية كوسوفو تصنف حزب الله بشقيه السياسي والعسكري منظمة إرهابية
Last year, Kosovo designated its military wing as a terrorist group, but following a proposal by the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the parliament decided to designate its political wing as one as well.
The Republic of Kosovo has officially designated both Hezbollah's military and political wings as a terrorist group, Foreign Affairs and Diaspora Minister Meliza Haradinaj announced on Twitter on Tuesday.
A year ago, Kosovo designated Hezbollah's military wing as a terrorist group, but following a proposal by the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the parliament decided to designate the political wing as a terrorist entity as well.
"After [Foreign Affairs Ministry’s] proposal, #Kosovo Government decided to declare both the political & military wings of #Hezbollah, a terrorist organization in the territory of the Republic of Kosovo," Haradinaj said in her Tuesday tweet. "This decision contributes to protect & advance national, regional & global security interests."The American Jewish Congress lauded the move. "Hezbollah’s activities are a direct threat to peace and security, and Kosovo’s decision is an important step in the global fight against terrorism," the AJC said in a statement. "The artificial differentiation between Hezbollah’s political and military wings has created openings for Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran, to continue to engage in its malignant activities in many countries around the world. "We urge other countries to follow Kosovo’s example in treating the entirety of Hezbollah as a terrorist entity and banning all its activities," they concluded.
Kosovo joins the list of more than a dozen countries and groups of nations – including Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Arab League and the European Union – that have designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

The Calculations of Lebanon’s Shiite Duo
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 25/2020
The scenes of destruction and thuggery in downtown Beirut, some days ago, were pretty sad and painful for those who love and value Lebanon. This was the case in a week of revolutionary slogans, hunger-provoked-rage, worry about international sanctions, and the return of an irresponsible and spiteful government to spoils’ sharing and delusion under the hegemony of the status quo’s forces.
For the Lebanese, however, this scene is inseparable from what is happening in Syria. As the Syrian pound’s exchange rate against the US dollar collapsed, anti-regime demonstrations reappeared in several Syrian areas, which have been suffering terrible economic and living conditions well before the ‘Caesar Act’ (in full the ‘Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act’). Thus, it was natural that the Syrian Premier Imad Khamis would be dismissed; although the responsibility for the dire situation goes much higher than him.
Furthermore, under Lebanese and Syrian regime supported – albeit in part – by one regional power, and home to allied and interconnected financial and militaristic ‘mafias’, we witnessed during the last couple of weeks the following developments:
1- A fast drop in the exchange rate of the Lebanese and Syrian currencies against the US dollar.
2- Discovery of big shipments of flour and fuel being ‘smuggled’ from Lebanon to Syria, despite the fear of the Lebanese people of encroaching hunger, and fuel shortage.
3- The pressure exerted on the governor of Lebanon’s Central Bank (Banque du Liban), by what is virtually ‘Hezbollah’s Government’ to inject US dollars in the ‘market’ under the excuse of protecting the Lebanese pound. But, this was done with no guarantee that this injection of dollars – coming from savings of customers through their banks – will not follow the smuggled flour and fuel into Syria.
What happened, within a few consecutive days, in Beirut was nothing short of the difference between the strategy and the tactics. Between a popular uprising with clear demands and certain forces that are seeking to hijack the uprising and divert its demands away from the most important cause of the suffering, and direct the political and sectarian targeting elsewhere.
Since last October, the Lebanese people have been living under threats directed to anyone who holds Hezbollah’s illegal weapon – fully or partly – the responsibility for Lebanon’s economic crises. The banks, the financial institutions and politicians who helped rebuild the Lebanese economy after the devastating Lebanese War (1975-1990) have also been targeted.
Lately, after the injection of dollars, the thugs who invaded central Beirut were raising flagrant sectarian slogans. However, within 24 hours of the ‘victory of Hezbollah’s weapons’ and the Central Bank’s giving in to pressure, the same thugs re-emerged, but this time shouting slogans of brotherhood against ‘thieves’, hunger, and poverty!
Before the ‘orders’ given to make dollars available, the aim of ‘Hezbollah’s Government’ and its supporters was to threaten and intimidate those to tie illegitimate weapons’ role in destroying Lebanon’s economy, its investment culture, and its financial institutions; but after ‘surrounding’ the governor of the Central Bank with four deputy governors, all of which were political ‘loyalists’, the aim became going back to hijack the Popular Uprising, and settle old scores with political foes.
This scenario merits a look at ‘the Shiite Duo’, Hezbollah, and AMAL movement, backed as a Christian ‘cover’ by the ‘Free Patriotic Movement’ (FPM) founded by the current Lebanese president Michel Aoun.
This is not, however, the full picture. Hezbollah, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), is now by far the most powerful partner; while AMAL and the Aounist FPM are minor partners whose role is merely to facilitate deals, and act as shock-absorbers and PR and liaison vehicles.
Moreover, if we keep the FPM aside, as the nature of its association with Hezbollah is a particular nature, one cannot fail to notice a clear difference between the ‘chemistries’ of Hezbollah and AMAL.
Without going into too much details, Hezbollah is a theocratic ‘cadre party’ and militia exclusively guided and commanded by Iran’s theological authorities; while AMAL is a sectarian political movement like many sectarian movements and parties in Lebanon. Indeed, AMAL’s ambition is to ensure more influence and shares within the Lebanese System just like other similar sectarian organizations seeking greater and ‘fairer’ shares for their respective communities but within the system.
Furthermore, notions such as ‘Arab’, ‘Arabism’, ‘Lebanon’, and ‘national unity’ are alien to the ethos and strategy of Hezbollah. In fact, the absence of ‘Arabism’ and ‘Lebanon’ from the political ethos of Hezbollah’s has made it easier for them to fight inside Arab countries like Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, as well as striking exclusionist political deals inside Lebanon that undermine its communal consensus and national unity.
The above does not apply to AMAL, many of whose members and supporters are from the unideologized middle class. They also neither shun their Lebanese or Arab identities nor seek to exclude others. This is why AMAL remains – despite its loose populist structure that accommodated thuggish gangs – a credible enough political player that is capable of conducting dialogues with other political parties. In addition, AMAL parliamentary bloc includes Sunni, Druze, and Christian MPs.
Keeping these ideological and organizational differences in mind, one can better understand the minor differences between the two Shiite groups. Still, some observers advise more caution for several reasons, including the need to play ‘the good cop, bad cop’ game in order to make maximum common benefit from a deeply divided society. This is, of course, helped by the fact that while AMAL has its own allies and friends inside major Lebanese sects, Hezbollah has allies and friends opposing them inside the same sects.
Another important issue is that of Arab and international relations. Despite the clear internal consensus between the two Shiite groups inside Lebanon, AMAL maintains relatively acceptable links with Arab and world powers. This does not apply to Hezbollah, whose full adherence to Tehran’s policies led to being defined as a ‘terrorist organization’ in many Arab and major world powers.
Back to the Syrian question; many will depend on what happens in and to Syria during the coming few months, especially with regard to areas of influence, the future of the regime, and the toll of the economic sanctions.
What happens in Syria, particularly as far as Iranian military presence there is concerned, is expected to have repercussions in Lebanon; most definitely, on the Shiite arena.

The axis of evil is in free fall
Prof. Eyal Zisser/Israel Hayom/June 25/2020
For many years, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have excelled at maintaining and unifying their "Axis of Resistance" against Israel. In retrospect, however, this appears to be an axis of bankrupt entities foisting calamity upon their own peoples.
The 20-year anniversary of the IDF's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon was commemorated in Beirut this year modestly, almost obscurely. Although Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a victory speech, from the underground bunker he hides in, he was also forced to admit that Hezbollah has no reason to celebrate today.The flames have been nipping at Nasrallah's robe for quite some time, but in recent weeks he and his men have openly exhibited signs of distress. For the first time, during the ongoing protests flooding the streets of Beirut, people have called for disarming the organization and rehabilitating the sovereignty of the Lebanese state. In Syria, too, where President Bashar Assad recently celebrated the 20-year anniversary of his rule, the atmosphere is as gloomy as ever. Although Assad defeated his people who rose against him on the battlefield – with chemical weapons, aerial bombardments, and missiles – in the real battle he is now waging over Syria's rehabilitation he is losing soundly.
In recent weeks, the Syrian lira has lost nearly 90% of its value as its exchange rate has plummeted from nearly 500 liras to the US dollar to nearly 3,500 liras to the dollar. In one fell swoop, economic life in the country has ground to a halt, commerce has frozen, salaries have dropped, savings have been wiped out, and everyday Syrians can no longer afford to buy basic staples to sustain their families. In Lebanon, too, the Lebanese pound has depreciated in a manner of weeks from 1,500 pounds to the dollar to nearly 5,000 pounds to the dollar, also amid an economic crash that has been devastating for regular Lebanese citizens.All this is happening while the United States has instituted the so-called Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act (named after the pseudonym of a Syrian policeman who turned over photographs of thousands of victims of torture by the Assad government). The law targets any individual or entity doing business with the Syrian government or supporting its military efforts, including reconstruction, fuel delivery, and other sectors. Businessmen close to the Syrian government were added to the sanctions list under the new measures. It could paralyze the Syrian economy and, consequently, the intertwined Lebanese economy. The problem is that Assad and Nasrallah don't have anywhere to turn for help. The world is no longer eager to aid Lebanon and help the parasitic Hezbollah continue to flourish inside the Lebanese body. Russia and Iran can send troops and warplanes to Syria to lay waste to the country, but they are also dealing with numerous economic problems, or worse in the case of Iran, which is on the verge of economic collapse. The harsh economic crisis is spurring the masses into the streets of Beirut. Even in Syria, the crisis is hitting the regime's soft underbelly. For example, in the Mountain of the Druze region, protests have erupted against Assad. The crisis is even affecting the Assad family itself, where Bashar has openly feuded with his cousin, Rami Makhlouf, the wealthiest person in the country, from whom Bashar has seized all assets.
For many years, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah have excelled at maintaining and unifying their axis of evil, or as they refer to it – the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel. In retrospect, however, it appears this is an axis of bankrupt entities foisting calamity, poverty, and decay upon their own peoples. While we mustn't underestimate the threats that Assad and Nasrallah pose to Israel, it is evident that their alliance brings no good tidings or hope to their peoples and will inevitably wreak havoc on them.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 25-26/2020
Treasury Sanctions Five Iranian Captains Who Delivered Gasoline to the Maduro Regime in Venezuela
Press Release from The Department Of The USA Treasury
June 24, 2020
WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action against the captains of the five ships that U.S.-sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) used to deliver Iranian gasoline to the illegitimate Maduro regime in Venezuela. These captains, who led five Iranian flagged tankers — CLAVEL, PETUNIA, FORTUNE, FOREST and FAXON — delivered gasoline and gasoline components to Venezuela, and are now added to OFAC’s Specially Designated National and Blocked Persons List (SDN List).
“The Treasury Department will target anyone who supports Iranian attempts to evade United States sanctions and who further enables their destabilizing behavior around the world,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The Iranian regime’s support to the authoritarian and corrupt regime in Venezuela is unacceptable, and the Administration will continue to use its authorities to disrupt it.”
In November 2019, the Iranian government imposed strict rationing and a 50 percent price hike on gasoline. When the Iranian people protested the abrupt overnight cuts in fuel subsidies, the regime’s security forces brutally cracked down on the demonstrators, resulting in the killing of approximately 1,500 people, including women and children.
Now, despite the government’s decision to restrict the Iranian people’s access to vital fuel, the Iranian regime has sent five tankers carrying over 1.5 million barrels of gasoline and gasoline components to Venezuela, with plans to continue gasoline sales to the brutal and corrupt Maduro regime in the months to come. While the Iranian people are forced to ration their fuel supply due to the Iranian regime’s corruption, mismanagement, and global malign activities, the regime continues to support terrorist groups and allied dictators in Syria and Venezuela with the export of this critical product.
The five Iranian captains designated today work for IRISL and NITC and, over the past month, have captained vessels identified on OFAC’s SDN List as blocked property of IRISL and NITC, and have discharged shipments of Iranian gasoline in Venezuela.
Ali Danaei Kenarsari is an employee of IRISL and the master of the CLAVEL (IMO 9820312, formerly known as HYUNDAI MIPO 2655) which is an IRISL-managed tanker that has delivered Iranian gasoline to Venezuela. Mohsen Gohardehi is the master of the PETUNIA (IMO 9820336, formerly known as HYUNDAI MIPO 2657), also an IRISL-managed tanker that has delivered Iranian gasoline to Venezuela.
Kenarsari and Gohardehi are identified as having acted for or on behalf of IRISL, pursuant to E.O. 13599.
Alireza Rahnavard is an employee of NITC and the master of the FORTUNE (IMO 9283746), a NITC-owned tanker that has delivered Iranian gasoline to Venezuela. Reza Vaziri is an employee of NITC and the master of the FOREST (IMO 9283760), a NITC-owned tanker that has delivered Iranian gasoline to Venezuela. Hamidreza Yahya Zadeh is an employee of NITC and the master of the FAXON (IMO 9283758), a NITC-owned tanker that has delivered Iranian gasoline to Venezuela.
Rahnavard, Vaziri and Yahya Zadeh have been identified as having acted for or on behalf of NITC, pursuant to E.O. 13599.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these targets that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons is blocked and must be reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within the United States (including transactions transiting the United States) that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons.
In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the individuals identified today may themselves be exposed to sanctions or subject to an enforcement action. Furthermore, unless an exception applies, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction(s) for any of the individuals or entities designated today could be subject to U.S. sanctions.
Identifying information.

U.S. puts sanctions on five Iranian ship captains for bringing oil to Venezuela
Reuters/une 25/2020
The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on five Iranian ship captains who delivered oil to Venezuela, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirmed Washington’s backing for Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gives a news conference about dealings with China and Iran, and on the fight against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Washington, U.S., June 24, 2020. Mangel Ngan/Pool via REUTERS
Speaking at a news conference, Pompeo said the ships delivered about 1.5 million barrels of Iranian gasoline and related components, and warned mariners against doing business with the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose ouster Washington seeks.
“As a result of today’s sanctions, these captains’ assets will be blocked. Their careers and prospects will suffer from this designation,” Pompeo said in a statement later.
Pompeo hopeful world will understand need to extend Iran arms embargo. “We will continue to support the National Assembly, interim President Guaido, and the Venezuelan people in their quest to restore democracy,” Pompeo added to reporters. President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to block Iran’s energy trade and also bring down Maduro. It has threatened reprisals and warned ports, shipping companies and insurers against assisting the tankers.Venezuela’s exports are hovering near their lowest levels in more than 70 years and the OPEC member’s economy has collapsed. Yet Maduro has held on, frustrating the Trump administration. In a statement on Twitter, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza called the sanctions “an excess of arrogance” and “more proof of the Trump hawks’ hatred of all Venezuelans.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi wrote in a tweet that Washington’s action signaled the failure of its pressure campaign and said Iran and Venezuela “remain steadfast in countering unlawful American sanctions.”
Iran has sent five tankers since April to the socialist government of fuel-starved Venezuela. The shipments have done little to alleviate hours-long lines at gas stations. In an interview with news site Axios published on Sunday, Trump played down his January 2019 decision to recognize Guaido, speaker of the opposition-held National Assembly, as rightful leader. Trump has been disappointed by the inability of his policy to oust Maduro, U.S. officials have said privately. The United States and most other Western countries have recognized Guaido as the OPEC nation’s interim president since January 2019, regarding Maduro’s 2018 re-election as a sham. But Maduro has retained the support of the military as well as the backing of Russia, Cuba, China and Iran. The White House said on Monday that Trump had not lost confidence in Guaido. Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Matt Spetalnick, Arshad Mohammed and David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Babak Dehghanpisheh, Vivian Sequera and Luc Cohen; Editing by David Gregorio and Peter Cooney

U.S. Makes Case For Maintaining Arms Embargo On Iran, Citing 'Malign Activity'
RadioFreeEurope/June 25/2020
The United States has formally asked the UN Security Council to extend an arms embargo on Iran beyond October, when it is set to be progressively eased under the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. UN Ambassador Kelly Craft and Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook “virtually briefed” the council on a proposed resolution to extend the embargo, the State Department said in a statement on June 24. Hook said the Security Council should be united over its concern with Iranian arms transfers and noted that it has maintained arms restrictions on Iran since 2007.
The statement said Hook updated council members on “the full range of Iran’s malign activity,” including drone and cruise-missile attacks on two Saudi oil facilities in September that U.S., Saudi, and European officials have said Iran was responsible for. “Given that Iran has neither abided by current restrictions nor demonstrated a change in its threatening behavior, Special Representative Hook and Ambassador Craft called on Security Council members to extend the arms embargo,” the statement said. While Washington has long argued that the embargo should not be lifted, the international community has been waiting for it to formally push the measure. In an interview with Reuters, Hook complained about Russia and China blocking the extension of the ban, saying they risk being isolated at the United Nations and in the international community at large. "We see a widening gap between Russia and China and the international community," Hook said. He noted that Russia and China were isolated at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week when it passed a resolution to demand Iran provide access to two sites where nuclear activity may have occurred in the past. The five-year ban on selling conventional arms to Iran was established in conjunction with the 2015 nuclear agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. If it is lifted, Russia and China are two countries that experts say are most likely to sign arms deals with the Islamic republic. The United States pulled out of the accord in May 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions that have battered the Iranian economy. Tehran has been progressively breaking the restrictions laid down in the agreement, saying that it can reverse them if the remaining parties to the deal -- Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia -- comply with it. U.S. sanctions make it difficult for other parties to abide by their commitments. The foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany last week announced they oppose lifting the ban, but they also said their countries would not back U.S. efforts to unilaterally trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said earlier on June 24 he is "hopeful" that the "whole world" will understand the need to extend the embargo. "I think all but a couple of nations understand that this should not expire and there is going to be a discussion about how it is that we extend it," Pompeo told reporters in Washington. *With reporting by Reuters

Iran: COVID-19 Death Toll Passes 10,000
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Iran announced on Wednesday registering 134 new deaths caused by the novel coronavirus, taking the overall toll in the country past 10,000. It was the seventh straight day that Iran has reported more than 100 COVID-19 deaths.
"We lost 134 of our compatriots in the past 24 hours and the total number of victims is 10,130," Health Ministry Spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said during a televised news conference. Hospital admissions were highest in the provinces of Bushehr, Hormozgan, Kermanshah, Khuzestan and Kurdistan, while they were increasing in Tehran and Fars, she noted. Lari also revealed that up to 2,595 people had tested positive for the virus over the same 24-hour period, bringing the country's overall caseload to 215,096. "We call on all our compatriots to follow the health protocols, especially the elderly and those with underlying diseases," said Lari, AFP reported. She also urged young people and children to avoid crowded centers and to maintain distance from elderly, grandparents. Lari stressed the importance of abiding by the recommended health measures and to stay at home as much as possible.

Israel Resumes Pursuit of Iranian Presence in Syria Amid Russian Silence
Moscow, Tel Aviv – Raed Jabr and Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020 -
A former military official in Tel Aviv on Wednesday considered the airstrikes launched by Israel on four Syrian governorates a resumption of chasing out the Iranian presence there amid Russian silence. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Israel targeting Iran proxy militia positions on the Sokhna – Deir Ezzor highway in eastern Syria. "Five pro-Iranian fighters were killed in a strike on a military center belonging to pro-Tehran militias" on the Sokhna-Deir Ezzor road in eastern Syria, Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said.
He said many others were injured, with several in critical condition. Two air force soldiers were killed in another raid on a telecommunications center in the southern Sweida province, he said. The army said Israeli jets hit an army outpost in Salamiya and another in Sabura towns in Hama province only hours after missiles struck other military installations in Deir Ezzor province along the border with Iraq and in southern Syria near the border with Jordan. Former IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin warned on Wednesday that two waves of air attacks in Syria linked to Israel on Tuesday night will likely provoke serious retaliation from Iran and its proxies. “The Iranians and their proxies will search for ways to respond to and deter Israel,” tweeted Yadlin, currently executive director of the prestigious Institute for National Security Studies, on Wednesday.
The former intelligence officer cited past attempts to fire rockets into Israel and recent cyberattacks targeting Israeli businesses and infrastructure, giving a taste of what might come. Yadlin also asserted that the circumstances of the incident show that recent claims that the Iranians were leaving Syria were “wishful thinking.”Moscow ignored the Israeli raids, with reactions criticizing the content of the speech of the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem two days ago. A Middle East affairs expert told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Syrian regime is no longer able to change its attitude and face the serious problems challenging the war-torn country. The expert believed that the main problem lies in the increasing conviction among the Russian elites of the inability to separate the Syrian regime from Iran.

10 New Elements In The Israeli Bombing
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
The Israeli raids that hit Syria’s southern, eastern and central parts during the night of Tuesday-Wednesday - in which two Syrian soldiers and five fighters believed to be affiliated with Iran were killed - involved 10 new elements regarding the timing and content that distinguished them from hundreds of strikes that targeted Iranian and Syrian sites in recent years. 1- The extent: The Israeli bombardment targeted four Syrian governorates, namely Deir Ezzor, Homs, Hama and As-Soueida. According to the official Syrian News Agency (SANA), “one of our military sites was targeted near Salkhad, south of As-Soueida. As a result, two soldiers were killed and four others were wounded.”“Hostile air targets have appeared from east and northeast of Palmyra, and missiles have been fired at some of our military positions in Kabajeb, west of Deir Ezzor and in the Al-Sukhnah area” in Homs countryside. Shelling was later reported in areas near Salamieh in Hama countryside. 2- Repetition: Israel has targeted at least three times the Deir Ezzor countryside, and sources in Tel Aviv have spoken of the presence of a “base and missile warehouse” in that area. It also published satellite images of the site before and after the bombardment. Al-Sukhnah was also targeted by raids that are believed to be Israeli. On June 4, at least nine pro-Damascus elements, including four Syrians, were killed in Israeli raids on central Syria.
3- New areas: The previous attacks were targeting Damascus airport, its countryside and the center of the country, including Masyaf, in addition to the countryside of Aleppo and Deir Ezzor. But it is the first time that the bombardment hits the countryside of As-Soueida in southern Syria and near Jordan. UN Envoy Geir Pedersen expressed to the Security Council weeks ago his “concern over reports of Israeli attacks.” The bombing came after a series of demonstrations took place in As-Soueida, which included calls for the withdrawal of Iran and Hezbollah from Syria.
4- An area for international and regional arrangements: At the beginning of 2018, understandings between the US, Russia and Jordan were announced, which included the “withdrawal of non-Syrian fighters”, in reference to Iranian organizations with a median depth of 65 km from the Jordan border and from the disengagement line in the occupied Golan. Since then, reports have emerged of Iran’s return, but through the recruitment of Syrian youth into the countryside of As-Soueida and Daraa.
After the understandings, it was reported that Russia had taken control of Tel Al-Hara, the highest strategic point in Daraa. Remarkably, the raids on Tuesday-Wednesday night targeted a radar station in Tel Al-Sahn in the countryside of As-Soueida, according to the Soueida 24 network. It wasn’t clear whether the attacks were Iranian or Russian.
5- Tensions in Daraa: The raids on the countryside of As-Soueida came in parallel with a conflict over neighboring Daraa between the Russia-backed Fifth Legion and the Fourth Division in the Republican Guard led by Major General Maher al-Assad, brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The conflict revolves around attracting young men and ex-fighters, as well as consolidating influence on the ground. Some Western officials considered this a “violation of the tripartite understandings beginning of 2018.”
6- Russian silence: There was no official Russian stance on these raids, knowing that Syria has three Russian missile systems, the advanced S-400, S-300 and S-300. The wave of bombings comes after President Vladimir Putin’s appointment of the Russian ambassador to Damascus, Alexander Efimov, as a “presidential envoy” in the Syrian capital.
7- Bilateral coordination: Syrian and Iranian official media reported that there was extensive coordination between Tehran and Damascus in recent days to enhance economic, military and cultural cooperation after Washington started implementing the “Caesar Act”.
8- The Caesar Act: There were raids at the beginning of the month and in the past weeks, months and years. However, this was the first bombing since the implementation of Caesar Act, which provides for Iran’s withdrawal from Syria as one of the six conditions to stop its effects.
9- US-Russian dialogue: The attacks came after Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announced Moscow’s willingness to discuss with Washington the Syrian issue. They also occurred following contacts between US Special Representative for Syria Engagement Ambassador James Jeffrey and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin. 10- A new minister and silence: As usual except during the election campaigns, Israel has not declared responsibility for the recent raids. But those where the broadest since Benny Gantz took over the Ministry of Defense, succeeding Naftali Bennett. The latter announced upon the end of his post that Iran started withdrawing its forces from Syria, and significantly reduced its presence and removed a number of its bases. Former Israeli military intelligence chief, General Amos Yadlin, however, said on Wednesday that the “Iranians and their allies will search for ways to respond to and deter Israel.”

UN Envoy Warns Israeli Annexation Could Unleash Mideast Violence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
The U.N. envoy for the Middle East warned Israel on Thursday that carrying out its plans to annex parts of the West Bank could set of a spasm of violence that would upend Israeli-Palestinian relations and reverberate across the region.
Speaking to a group of foreign correspondents in Jerusalem, Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the region, said any Israeli unilateral action will "will have economic and security repercussions on the ground that will affect the lives of both Israelis and Palestinians."
"Surely any such moves will be met by counter moves by the Palestinian Authority and they have already started," he told members of the Foreign Press Association, noting how the Palestinians have absolved themselves from abiding by past agreements with Israel.
"For now we have the clear commitment by the Palestinian leadership that they will do everything in their power to contain law and order in the areas they control," he said. "But as the money runs out and as the political prospects become more grim, I feel that will become more difficult or impossible in the future."
His stern warning comes amid a flurry of international pressure on Israel to recant on its plans. On Wednesday, the head of the Arab League warned a high-level U.N. meeting that any annexation would inflame tensions and endanger peace in the Middle East, and could ignite "a religious war in and beyond our region." More than a thousand European lawmakers also signed a joint letter protesting Israel´s plan, saying such a move would "be fatal" to hopes for a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Emboldened by the Trump administration´s favorable Mideast plan, and eager to establish its permanent eastern border, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to begin annexing parts of the West Bank that have Israeli settlements, perhaps as early as next week.
Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war and in the decades since has built dozens of settlements that are now home to roughly 400,000 Israelis. Most of the international community considers the settlements illegal. The Palestinians seek the territory as part of a future independent state and have preemptively rejected the Trump plan. Netanyahu´s government has yet to publish details of the proposed annexation but the prime minister has called for roughly 30% of the territory - including the strategically important Jordan Valley - to be annexed by Israel. Even British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a close Netanyahu ally, said last week that he strongly opposed annexation of parts of the West Bank, which would "amount to a breach of international law."UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Israel on Tuesday to hear the global calls and not to carry on with its plans. He told The Associated Press that annexation would not only violate international law, but "would be a major factor to destabilize the region."Mladenov took a more philosophical approach, saying annexation would do more than just extinguish the prospect of a two-state solution to solve the conflict. "If we remove entirely the notion that through negotiations, through compromises, through discussions, through dialogue, this goal can be achieved, I fear that we really take the spirit out of the peace process and put everyone is a very difficult position," he said. "Unilateral action will become the theme of the day."

Gantz Attacks Palestinian Leadership, Proposes to Meet With Abbas
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magali/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Alternate Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister Benny Gantz invited Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to a meeting to discuss US President Donald Trump’s plan. In remarks on Tuesday, Gantz said he was ready for such a meeting immediately, at any location chosen by Abbas.
“We won’t continue to wait for the Palestinians. If they say ‘no’ forever to everything, then we’ll be forced to move forward without them… But if they show any willingness to do so, I am ready to travel tomorrow morning to him [Abbas] in Ramallah, to talk to him and try to persuade him to push this plan forward,” he underlined. Gantz continued: “The Palestinians continue to reject dialogue…but rather seek to drag us into unrest... This is not reasonable. We are dealing with a real opportunity to break the political deadlock. The mere fact that we succeed in breaking this deadlock gives us hope for change for the benefit of all.” The Israeli defense minister also tried to downplay the risk of annexation on Israelis and settlers who reject the plan, saying: “We won’t take Palestinians into our territory; we won’t harm human rights or the right of movement. We’ll work in coordination with regional countries, and we’re in contact with them. We won’t endanger the peace agreements.”He also tried to reassure Jordan, stressing that Israel wanted to work with the international community and with all the countries of the region to preserve peace agreements.
Political sources stated that the Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, made several field visits to the West Bank to listen to area’s leaders, who warned that the annexation would lead to an escalation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Kochavi told the forces he visited during military exercises on the northern front: “The exercises are naturally directed to the central fighting front; (Hezbollah), in the north, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, after several weeks, you may find yourself in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), due to a breach of order or terrorist operations. The riots in Judea and Samaria may develop into fighting in the Gaza Strip.”His comments are consistent with reports by the Shin Bet security service, which noted that the unilateral Israeli annexation of areas in the West Bank would lead to a “wave of violence that begins on the southern front, but turns into a broader escalation between Israel and the Palestinians.”

IMF, Sudan Reach Reform Deal
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020 - 10:00
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday it reached an agreement with Sudan on a reform deal that would back the 12-month Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). An IMF mission led by Daniel Kanda held virtual meetings with the authorities from June 8-21 to discuss their reform package.
At the end of the mission, Kanda issued a statement revealing that "the Sudanese authorities and IMF staff have reached a staff-level agreement on policies and reforms that can underpin an SMP, subject to approval by the IMF's management and Executive Board.”"The SMP aims at narrowing large macroeconomic imbalances, reducing structural distortions that hamper economic activity and job creation, strengthening governance and social safety nets, and making progress towards eventual HIPC debt relief.
“In support of these objectives, the reform package envisages increasing domestic revenue and reforming energy subsidies to create room for increased spending on social programs,” the statement read. The new financing, however, has been held up by the need to settle decades of arrears to the IMF and Sudan’s listing, while under Omar al-Bashir’s rule, by the United States as a state sponsor of terrorism. The Sudanese government pins hope on a conference of potential donors in Berlin this week. Meanwhile, the economy is on the verge of collapse with inflation exceeding 100 percent and a shortage of bread and drugs.
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok finds himself desperate for foreign support. “You have an unfinanced transition which is being hammered by a pandemic and a potential plague” of locusts, said a Western diplomat. “It puts pressure on the international community to put more money upfront quickly to ameliorate the degradation.”Inflation topped an annual 100 percent last month as the government printed money to fund bread and fuel subsidies. Sudan’s currency has fallen to 150 to the dollar on the black market compared to 55 at the official rate, due to hard currency shortages.
Analysts and diplomats say Khartoum needs to deliver more substantial steps to overhaul an economy where key companies earning foreign currency such as gold exporters are controlled by military figures. The government needs an estimated USD1.9 billion to cover the cash payment program. A preparatory document for the conference calls for “a pathway for Sudan’s re-engagement with international institutions” leading to eventual debt relief. “The government is bankrupt effectively,” said Magdi el-Gizouli, a Sudanese academic and a fellow of the Rift Valley Institute. “They don’t have the funds for the cash program.”The Berlin conference describes participants as “partners” rather than donors, to recognize that Sudan has its own resources and needs political and economic support rather than financial handouts, said Aisha al-Barir, a Sudanese government coordinator for the conference.
“Sudan is working on economic reform to take advantage of its own resources,” she said, pointing to a gold sector reform announced last week. Sudan also plans to liquidate or privatize many dysfunctional state firms.

Iran TV Airs 355 Coerced Confessions Over Decade to Intimidate Activists
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Iranian state television has broadcast the suspected coerced confessions of at least 355 people over the last decade as a means to both suppress dissent and frighten activists in the Islamic Republic on behalf of security services, according to a report released Thursday.
The study published by Justice for Iran and the International Federation for Human Rights outlined cases of prisoners being coached into reading from white boards, with state television correspondents ordering them to repeat the lines while smiling.
Others recounted being beaten, threatened with sexual violence, and having their loved ones used against them to extract false testimonies later aired on news bulletins, magazine-style shows, and programs masquerading as documentaries, the report said. The number of those filmed likely is even higher as some say their coerced confessions have yet to air, while others may not have been immediately accessible to researchers, said Mohammad Nayyeri, co-director of Justice for Iran.
"They always live with that fear of when it´s going to happen," Nayyeri told The Associated Press. "So that fear itself in those cases is not less than the fear and the anguish and pain of those whose confessions have been broadcast."
Emails sent to Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, the state television, and radio firm, could not be delivered. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment.
Under Iranian law, only the state can own and operate television and radio stations. Satellite dishes, though prevalent across Tehran, remain illegal. YouTube and other Western video streaming services are blocked. That leaves many watching IRIB across its multiple national and provincial stations.
While state TV channels remain a major force across much of the Mideast, IRIB particularly appears influenced by state security agencies like Iran's Intelligence Ministry, its military, and the intelligence arm of the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
"IRIB operates as a media hub that links a vast network of security, intelligence, military, and judicial organizations," the report said. "IRIB is not simply a media organization and by no means an independent one, but rather an organ of state suppression that uses the tools of mass communication."
That translates to a focus on Iranian military production and exercises to airing confessions long criticized by Europe and the US, as well as human rights groups.
Washington sanctioned a bank supporting IRIB in November 2018 and later its director, Abdulali Ali-Asgari. The US Treasury says IRIB "routinely broadcasts false news reports and propaganda, including forced confessions of political detainees." US prosecutors even allege an IRIB staffer recruited a former US Air Force intelligence analyst for the Guard.However, sanctions on IRIB itself have been waived every six months since being imposed by the Obama administration in 2013, in part over what the State Department has described as "Iran´s commitment to ensure that harmful satellite interference does not emanate from its territory."The use of televised, coerced confessions dates back to the chaotic years immediately after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. State television aired confessions by suspected members of communist groups, insurgents, and others. Even Mehdi Bazargan, Iran's first prime minister after the revolution, warned at one point he could be detained and put on television "repeating things like a parrot."
There have been a number of famous cases of aired coerced confessions, like that of Newsweek correspondent Maziar Bahari, who got British regulators to revoke the license for Iranian state television English-language arm Press TV over airing his.
The report by Justice for Iran and the International Federation for Human Rights describes in detail the case of Maziar Ebrahimi, who later said Intelligence Ministry officials tortured him and 11 others into giving coerced confessions falsely claiming they assassinated nuclear scientists on behalf of Israel.
"Even after confessing to the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientists, Ebrahimi was still tortured and pressurized to take responsibility for another unsolved case of the explosion in the missile factory in Mallard," the report said.
Ebrahimi later was freed and left Iran for Germany. After the BBC's Persian service reported on his story, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei in August called the Ebrahimi's torture "unprofessional" and said those responsible would be held accountable. To date, there has been no public announcement of such a reckoning taking place. But there are many more, according to the report, including those who have yet to see their confessions broadcast. Those sheer numbers over the last decade came as a surprise to Nayyeri and other researchers.
"It was because of the sheer shock of the numbers that we decided to give it more attention," he said. "You put them together and then, only then, you see how huge the problem is. It is not just every now and then. No, this is systematic. This is continuous."

US Doubles Reward for ISIS Leader
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
The United States on Wednesday doubled to $10 million its reward for the capture of the ISIS supremo, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced. The US had already offered $5 million for Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli before he was identified as the successor to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed by US commandos in an October raid in Syria, AFP reported. Born in 1976, al-Mawli issued edicts to justify the persecution of the Yazidi minority, a campaign that the United Nations has described as genocide. The militants killed thousands of Yazidis and abducted and enslaved thousands more women and girls as they rampaged across the Middle East. Al-Mawli was born in the Iraqi city of Mosul.

Brussels Conference to Discuss Refugees Crisis, Political Solution in Syria
Brussels - Abdullah Mostafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
The European Union’s fourth Brussels Conference continues to hold its sessions on “Supporting the future of Syria and the region.”High-level talks were held on Monday and Tuesday between civil society organizations, ministers, the EU, the UN, decisions makers in countries hosting refugees and other partners.
A virtual exhibition “Voices from Syria and the region” has also been made available online to display the strength, resilience, and diversity of the Syrian people in the face of the ongoing conflict and strife. A segment of the conference on June 30 will see the participation of 80 delegates from neighboring countries, partners, EU Member States and international organizations, during which political commitments and pledges will be made. For his part, EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borell said in remarks that the “Syrians have suffered for too long...we cannot ignore their plight.”“It is our moral duty to continue supporting the people of Syria. The Conference aims to further mobilize the international community behind UN-led efforts to achieve a lasting political solution to the Syria crisis in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254. This is the only way to bring back stability and peace for all Syrians,” he stressed. European Union foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano said: “The aim of the meeting is to discuss more support for refugees and neighboring countries that have received these refugees, and have been affected by the conflict in Syria, as well as to discuss a political solution to ending the conflict.”In his statements to Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, the spokesman pointed out that conference will be an opportunity to come out with ambitious pledges and express support to find a political solution to Syria's crisis within a UN-led mediation.

Conflict of Interest Haunts Tunisia’s PM
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
Tunisian Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh faces accusations of exploiting his position in government to achieve personal gains as the parliament is gearing up to grill him in a plenary session. Local dailies dealt with a scandal known as the ‘Fakhfakh Gate’, after documents were leaked exposing the PM committed a grave violation.A wave of accusations targeted Fakhfakh after it was revealed that he is a shareholder in a private company which won a public tender. This forced the PM to abandon his shares in the company, but his move wasn’t seen enough because it had already won a bid worth $15.4 million.
Despite that Fakhfakh had relinquished his shares in all companies dealing with the state because it places him at a conflict of interest, calls for holding him accountable persisted. The opposition and some political parties are calling for investigation into how Fakhfakh had benefited from those dealings.
Democratic bloc lawmaker Nabil Hajji demanded that the premier resigns should there be evidence that he personally benefited from his place in government and that he violated the law. Hajji called for the counter corruption committee in parliament to open an investigation into the matter. Independent lawmaker Yassine al-Ayari published a document showing that Fakhfakh is a capital investor in a company that won two government bids. Ayari wrote to Mohammed Abbou, the state minister responsible for counter corruption, questioning about the conflict of interest and illicit enrichment Fakhfakh is being tied to. Abbou, for his part, ordered assigning a competent supervisory body to investigate the charges against the prime minister and to extend a report to parliament as soon as possible. He also ordered a copy of all contracts signed with companies involving Fakhfakh. Ayari stressed that the law requires the prime minister to give up any other responsibility before assuming his official duties, and to instruct others to dispose of his shares, within a maximum period of 60 days after he assumed office.

Washington Pushes for Resumption of Talks on GERD
Cairo - Kharoum - Mohammed Abdo Hassanein and Mohammed Amin Yassin/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 25 June, 2020
The US is pushing for the resumption of talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the filling and operation of the $4 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Washington’s efforts came in line with UN talks held this week at the Security Council to find an exit for the dispute on the dam.
US President Donald Trump expressed his country’s commitment to facilitating a fair and equitable deal among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on GERD during a phone call with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi two weeks ago.
Washington tried in November to broker a deal between the three countries, but Ethiopia did not accept to sign any agreement. “The US has a clear objective to help reach an agreement on the dam’s dispute,” Mahmoud Abu Zeid, the head of the Arab Water Council and former minister of water resources and irrigation, told Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday. This week, UNSC held a primary session to discuss the issue after Egypt requested the Security Council to intervene to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia over GERD. Ethiopia has held onto its position in a letter sent to the Council.
Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said Egypt is erroneously portraying the dam as a threat to international peace and security, adding that GERD will not be a menace to peace and security. Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said his country is a genuine party to the negotiations, and that Khartoum will continue to exert efforts to reach a solution that is acceptable by all sides. In a statement issued Wednesday by the Sudanese Cabinet, Hamdok said that he received a phone call from US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin to discuss the latest developments regarding the negotiations.
Also, Sudanese Minister of Water and Irrigation Yasser Abbas said his country has received an invitation from Ethiopia to resume talks. The government reaffirmed its position that the return to the negotiation table requires a political will to resolve outstanding contentious issues, he said.
In the press conference held Wednesday, Abbas said the draft agreement presented by Sudan is suitable as a basis for consensus among the three countries especially that most of the technical issues have been agreed upon.
Abbas noted that differences remain on legal issues.

Up to 8% of U.S. Population Has Been Infected with Virus
Agence France Presse/June 25/2020
Between five and eight percent of the total U.S. population has experienced infection with the new coronavirus, a top health body said Thursday as it warned pregnant women were at higher risk of getting severe COVID-19. The estimate for infections by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is based on nationally representative antibody test surveys, which suggest that the count of confirmed cases represents only about a tenth of the real figure.The US population is 329.8 million, and the true number of people who are or have previously been infected is between 16.5 and 26.4 million people, according to the estimate. The infection figures came as Texas, one of the fastest states to ease its shutdown, halted steps to reopen its economy after a sharp rise in recent cases. The number of new coronavirus infections is approaching record daily levels in the US, with more than 35,900 cases recorded in the past 24 hours, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. CDC Director Robert Redfield said that the rates of infection were not nationally uniform. "There are... states that are going to have antibody prevalence rates of less than 2 percent, which would mean a majority of those individuals in those regions are still susceptible," he said. "There's other areas like the New York metropolitan area that clearly had a higher penetration of antibody positivity."The CDC has been carrying out so-called serological surveys and based on these, it "looks like it's somewhere between five and eight percent of the American public," Redfield continued, adding that the estimates would be further refined with more data. The CDC also issued a new report Thursday that found that pregnant women infected with the virus were significantly more likely to be hospitalized, admitted to an intensive care unit and receive mechanical ventilation than nonpregnant women. Pregnant women were not however found to be at higher risk of death. "Although additional data are needed to further understand these observed elevated risks, pregnant women should be made aware of their potential risk for severe illness from COVID-19," the report said.

Trump adviser: Arab backlash against annexation plan is “overblown”
DebkaFile/June 25/2020
A “big announcement” from Trump is coming soon on Israel’s planned annexation of parts of the West Bank, said senior presidential adviser Kellyanne Conway on Wednesday, June 24 at the White House. Downplaying the opposition, she remarked: “He moves the embassy to Jerusalem, the Arab world is going to disappear. Thank God that wasn’t true. There’s always this scare tactic… of all the bad that’s going to happen and then it doesn’t happen,” she noted. “All the calamity scenarios in the past are gone. Let’s just see, because he [President Donald Trump] wants to be an agent for peace in the Middle East and he’s trying to do that.”Regarding the furor swirling around PM Binyamin Netanyahu’s pledge to launch his plan to apply sovereignty to parts of the West Bank and Jordan Valley on July 1, Conway said: “We are having conversations. Obviously, the President will have an announcement… and I’ll leave it to him to give you a big analysis, and very happy these talks continue.”Trump administration officials are set to decide this week on whether to approve the Netanyahu plan. Discussions are said to be taking place among senior adviser Jared Kushner, national security adviser Robert O’Brien, Middle East envoy Avi Berkowitz and US ambassador to Israel David Friedman. Trump is expected to pitch in with the last word. The White House is reportedly looking at different options, including a staged process in which Israel would start by declaring sovereignty only over several settlements in the Jerusalem area – not yet the full 135 communities located in the 30pc of the West Bank allotted by the Trump plan. According to an unnamed official, Washington has not ruled out Netanyahu’s larger annexation vision, but is concerned that a major, rapid, unilateral move by Israel could seal off any chance that the Palestinians may ever agree to discuss Trump’s peace plan. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated on Wednesday that the decision on whether to annex West Bank land was up to Israel to make. “We are talking to all of the countries in the region about how it is we can manage this process for our end-state objective.” Pompeo spoke after a UN Security Council session during which the UN and the Arab League jointly called on Israel to abandon annexation plans and threatened dangerous consequences if it went ahead. Their call was echoed by incoming UNSC European Union Members (Germany, Belgium France, Estonia, Ireland) as well as the UK and Norway. Unnamed sources in Washington say that the White House is keen on consensual Israeli government backing for Netanyahu’s initiative from Kahol Lavan’s defense minister Benny Gantz and foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi.
Gantz commented on Tuesday that if the Palestinians choose not to take part in the talks with Israel, “then we will have to move forward without them.” Ashkenazi is a lot tougher than the alternate prime minister. According to a statement released from his office on Sunday, the foreign minister does not believe the Jordan Valley will be included in any annexation move, which, he maintained, his party would support only on these stiff provisos: The sovereignty process must lead to “separation from the Palestinians, be implemented responsibly, and in full coordination with the US and in dialogue with Israel’s neighbors, while also upholding existing and future peace accords and at the same time preserving Israel’s strategic and security interests.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 25-26/2020
Cratering Economy Drives Iranian Rial to All-Time Low
Saeed Ghasseminejad/ Policy Brief-FDD/June 25/2020
The Iranian rial has lost 10 percent of its value over the past two weeks, and more than 30 percent since the start of the calendar year. The regime may still have sufficient hard currency reserves to end the current freefall, especially if authorities crack down on unregulated exchanges, yet such efforts will only weaken the ability of the Islamic Republic to resist the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy.
The U.S. dollar, which was worth 70 rials in 1979 before the Islamic Revolution, now trades at more than 200,000 rials. It traded at 37,600 when President Donald Trump took office, before losing almost 80 percent of its value from December 2017 through late September 2018, when the rial reached its previous low of 190,000 to the dollar. At that point, Tehran increased the supply of hard currency and suppressed demand by outlawing private exchanges and initiating a campaign of arrests and even executions for currency and precious metals traders. These efforts enabled the rial to claw back almost half of its losses within three months, although black markets remain.
The freefall that began this January is first and foremost a correction of the rial’s value in response to macroeconomic distress. Iran experienced consecutive years of stagflation – recession plus high inflation – in 2018 and 2019. All indicators point to a third consecutive year. Yet in the latter half of 2019, the rial gained more than 30 percent against the dollar. Market fundamentals tend not to remain out of alignment for so long.
The freefall is also a sign of Tehran’s diminishing hard currency reserves and, more importantly, the decline of accessible reserves. The country’s sovereign wealth fund includes an estimated $15 billion to $20 billion of liquid assets despite an overall value of roughly $90 billion. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the Islamic Republic has $75 billion to $80 billion in foreign reserves, yet this consists mainly of money sitting in foreign escrow funds. This money is available for needs such as purchasing medical equipment and pharmaceutical goods abroad, but is not fully accessible.
The sanctions-driven collapse of Iranian exports of crude oil, as well as the collapse in oil prices, has deprived Iranian of the most important means of replenishing its reserves. Tehran’s exports now appear to have reached a record low of 70,000 barrels per day, compared to 2.5 million per day prior to the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Furthermore, the latest data from the NIMA market, a currency market for exporters and importers, show that the repatriation of hard currency generated by non-oil exports has dropped significantly over the last few months. At the same time, the price of the dollar on the NIMA exchange has been dramatically increasing.
An uptick in demand for hard currency may also be pushing the dollar higher. This higher demand is partly the result of the reopening of the Iranian economy as the government lifts pandemic-related restrictions. In addition, financial analysts and institutional investors watching the Tehran Stock Exchange have been worried that the market’s dramatic gains are a bubble about to burst. In response, they may have begun to hedge via investment in the currency and precious metals markets.
Finally, a steep budget deficit, aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, may be aiding the dollar’s rise. As the largest supplier of hard currency, the regime has an incentive to let the dollar appreciate, since this increases the number of rials earned for each dollar sold by the central bank.
The depreciation of the rial and the inflation likely to follow will both mitigate Iran’s growing trade deficit. A weaker rial will make the price of non-oil exports more competitive while reducing demand for imports. So far, Washington has not been successful in cutting Iran’s non-oil exports, although it has been more effective at preventing the repatriation of revenue this trade generates.
As it did in 2018, the Islamic Republic may succeed in arresting the decline of the rial. Yet if Washington’s maximum pressure campaign continues, another plunge may only be a matter of time. In the meantime, Tehran may escalate its aggression against both its neighbors and Persian Gulf commerce to create diplomatic pressure for sanctions relief.
At the broadest level, the fall of the rial reflects the abysmal state of the Iranian economy under the Islamic Republic. Corruption, mismanagement, and an adventurist foreign policy have caused four decades of misery, whose primary victims are the Iranian people.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Saeed and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran’s rulers (still) seek nuclear weapons/Yet more evidence that those who despise us can’t be bought off
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/June 25/2020
Baden-Wurttemberg is a bucolic state in southwest Germany but its capital is Stuttgart, one of the world’s great high-tech centers. Like other German states, Baden-Wurttemberg has its own intelligence agency.
That agency, the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution, last week released a lengthy report. An accompanying press release neglected to mention this nugget uncovered by my FDD colleague, Benjamin Weinthal: The Islamic Republic of Iran, which for years has sworn that its nuclear research is exclusively for peaceful purposes, has been deploying agents in Baden-Wurttemberg.
Their mission: to acquire the “products and relevant knowhow” necessary “to complete existing arsenals, perfect the range applicability and effectiveness of their weapons and develop new weapons systems.”
This revelation comes at an inconvenient moment for those Americans and Europeans inclined to give the clerical regime the benefit of every doubt. Earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report revealing that Iran’s rulers, in violation of their legally binding commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), have been preventing IAEA inspectors from searching for undeclared nuclear materials and evidence of continuing work on nuclear weapons.
On Friday, the IAEA’s Board of Governors adopted a resolution demanding Tehran provide “prompt access” to sites where nuclear weapons research is suspected to have taken place in the past. The Islamic Republic reflexively dismissed the appeal as “unconstructive and disappointing.”
You need to understand that the NPT is entirely separate from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal President Obama concluded – despite congressional disapproval — with Iran’s rulers in 2015. Spin aside, the JCPOA was not designed to permanently shut down Tehran’s nuclear weapons program – only to put it on ice for a few years. In exchange, the Islamic Republic received hundreds of billions of dollars, and the promise that the river of funds would continue to flow.
President Trump and his advisors regarded the JCPOA as can-kicking, and withdrew the U.S. from it in 2018. But Iran’s rulers remained in the deal, along with France, Britain, Germany (the E3), Russia and China. That means that Tehran has continued to be bound by the commitments it made under the JCPOA. In response to violations of those commitments, E3 leaders have mostly turned a blind eye. Russia and China’s leaders seem to be enjoying the West’s predicament.
Iran’s rulers also have curated a nuclear archive to preserve information on weapons development, and created a secret organization, which is chaired by the founder of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and employs scientists who worked on that program.
In other words, we now have overwhelming evidence that the nuclear weapons development program whose existence Iran’s rulers have consistently denied continues to progress.
Activities not clearly prohibited (e.g. the development of missiles that can deliver nukes to targets anywhere on the planet) have been carried out overtly. Activities unambiguously restricted have been carried out covertly.
That should trigger a response, specifically: The re-imposition of the international sanctions that were lifted under the JCPOA.
It would be best if our European allies on the U.N. Security Council would demand such a “snapback.” But if they won’t, the U.S. has the power to do the job on its own.
Simply put – and giving credit where credit is due – President Obama’s negotiators succeeded in passing a U.N. Security Council Resolution that authorizes any of the original parties to the JCPOA to re-impose international sanctions in response to Iranian violations. Nothing in the resolution suggests that America’s withdrawal from the JCPOA changes that.
The larger issue underlying this controversy merits a brief discussion. For decades, American and European strategists on both the left and the right have embraced the comforting notion that those who self-identify as our enemies can be transformed into friends through patient diplomacy and the prospect of economic rewards.
President Obama had faith that Iran’s rulers, once in receipt of his respect and U.S. taxpayer cash, would decide they’d rather lead a nation than champion a cause (to borrow one of Henry Kissinger’s concepts). That would mean they’d focus on alleviating poverty at home, while ending the pursuit of regional hegemony (in the near-term) and “Death to America!” (in the long-term).
Similarly, both Bill Clinton and Donald Trump bet that visions of détente and economic benefits would mellow the dynastic Kim dictatorship in North Korea. In truth, the despots in Pyongyang have always taken whatever goodies were offered, while never contemplating serious concessions in return.
And, of course, for nearly half a century we’ve labored under the delusion that China’s Communist rulers were evolving into responsible stakeholders in the “liberal, rules-based, international order.” To that end, we provided them a seat on the U.N. Security Council, brought them into the World Trade Organization, and elaborately intertwined their economy with ours.
To demonstrate their gratitude, they’ve been stealing our intellectual property, accelerating military buildups, aggressing against their neighbors, and brutally oppressing their subject peoples – China’s ethnic and religious minorities especially.
The hard reality that should now be apparent is that America’s adversaries are fanatical ideologues, not material girls (to borrow one of Madonna’s concepts).
In an election year, and at a time when Americans are deeply divided on a range of issues, fresh strategic thinking is unlikely to be formulated, much less implemented. The best we can expect – and this will be challenging enough – are policies that limit the resources available to those most hostile to us, frustrate their ambitions, and perhaps persuade them that, should they do us harm, they will pay a steep price.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times. Follow him on Twitter @CliffordDMay.

Could Iran’s air force ever be a threat to Israel or Europe?
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 25/2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has sought to spotlight Iran’s air force in recent comments claiming that if an arms embargo is ended, then Iran’s expanded jet fighters could pose a threat.
In Iran’s endless drive to prove that its military makes it a great world power, the Iranian media showed off three locally built “Kowsar” fighter jets this week. They were delivered to the armed forces by Defense Minister Gen. Amir Hatami. Iran claims it has been building “domestically produced” jets since 2018.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has sought to spotlight Iran’s air force in recent comments, claiming that if an arms embargo is ended, Iran’s expanded jet fighters could pose a threat. Pompeo wrote on Wednesday that if the UN arms embargo were to expire in October, Iran “will be able to buy new fighter aircraft like Russia’s SU-30 and China’s J-10.” These lethal aircraft could threaten Europe and Asia, the US says. In theory, they could also threaten Israel.
Pompeo’s map of Iranian aircraft threats shows that the J-10 could make a one-way flight 1,648 km. and reach Israel. But being unable to return to Iran, it would be the end of the Iranian air force if it embarked on this journey. The SU-30 could get to Italy on a one-way mission. That’s enough gas for the Iranian pilot to defect. And, likely, that’s the only reason an Iranian pilot would take a precious aircraft on a one way mission: To flee Iran. An Iraqi pilot actually did that in 1966, flying his MiG-21 to Israel to flee Iraq.
A more reasonable discussion about Iran’s air power reveals that its great achievements are in drone technology, not aircraft. HESA, the corporation that makes some of Iran’s aircraft, is built on an American Textron factory that once made Bell helicopters in Iran. It is basically good and making 1970s copies of American equipment. For instance, the “Kowsar” is a copy of an American Northrop F-5, first built in the 1950s. The great engineering team at HESA has also managed to copy a Bell 206 helicopter and rename it a Shahed 274.
What HESA has been more innovative at its making drones, such as the Ababil. Iranian drones have struck Saudi Arabia and have been given to Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah. They are a serious threat to the region; Iran’s air force is not. Tehran still has American F-14 Tomcats and some MiG-29s it acquired in 1990. Some of these are Iraqi aircraft acquired when Baghdad sent its air force to Iran in 1991. Iran also has American F-4s and F-5s and several Su-22s.
Iran has used its air force sparingly. In contrast, its IRGC and its aerospace engineers led by Amir Hajizadeh have actually pioneered precision guidance for missiles and drones. This is a major threat – and it is where Iran has sought to do asymmetric warfare, building capabilities that can go around its enemies.
For instance, Iran used ballistic missiles to attack US forces in Iraq in January. It has attacked ISIS and Kurdish dissidents. Tehran has transferred ballistic missiles to Iraq and precision guided munitions to Hezbollah. It is in this IRGC-based technology that the Islamic Republic excels. The end of an arms embargo would give Iran access to more sophisticated weaponry. But the implication that it would funnel that to its aging air force in order to threaten others seems unlikely.
On the other side of the coin, the immediate neighbors of Iran are chaotic and it can exploit the weakness of Iraq and Afghanistan to use its air force. Turkey’s air force is already pounding Iraq, claiming to be fighting terrorists. But Iran’s adversaries in the Gulf have access to the latest US air defense technology. In general Iran is a substandard country when it comes to its regular air force. But when it comes to its drones and missiles, it may be one of the world's major powers – and certainly a major threat.

Palestinians: Is It Really about 'Annexation'?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June 25/2020
It is dead wrong to assume that if Israel abandons its plan, most Muslims would give up their desire to destroy Israel and replace it with an extremist Iran-style Islamic state.
[Islamic officials] are now calling on Palestinians to launch terror attacks against Israel, not because of the "annexation" plan, but in order to drive the Jews out of the "Palestinian Arab Islamic lands."
Those who are pressuring Israel not to proceed with the "annexation" plan need to hear what Islamic leaders are saying, day and night: that the conflict is not about Jewish settlements or the Jordan Valley, but the "big settlement" called Israel.
Islamic officials in the Gaza Strip are now calling on Palestinians to launch terror attacks against Israel, not because of the "annexation" plan, but in order to drive the Jews out of the "Palestinian Arab Islamic lands." Pictured: Hamas gunmen in the Gaza Strip.
As far as Palestinian Islamic religious clerics are concerned, Israel's intention to extend its sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, particularly Jewish settlements and the strategic Jordan Valley, means very little: to them Jews "have no right to Palestinian, Arab and Islamic land."
The position of the Islamic figures contradicts the Palestinian Authority's claim that the annexation plan would "destroy the two-state solution and any chance of a peace process with Israel."
The picture Palestinian Authority officials are painting is that the Israeli annexation of any part of the West Bank is the one and only obstacle to regional peace, security and stability. According to these officials, the Israeli plan would deprive the Palestinians of their right to establish an independent and sovereign state on the pre-1967 armistice lines.
A large group of Palestinian Islamic scholars and clerics, however, evidently disagree with the Palestinian Authority's claim.
On June 21, the Association of Palestine Scholars held a meeting in the Gaza Strip to discuss the Israeli plan. The meeting was attended by several Islamic religious judges representing the Supreme Council of Sharia Judiciary, senior officials of the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Waqf and Religious Affairs, academics from several Islamic colleges and universities, as well as jurists who issue rulings on Islamic law (sharia).
In a statement issued after the meeting, the Islamic religious personalities, referring to Israel as the "usurping entity," condemned as "dangerous" the Israeli plan to extend sovereignty to parts of the West Bank.
Their statement quickly makes clear that what is really bothering the Islamic scholars and clerics is not the possibility that Israel might impose its sovereignty on Jewish settlements and the Jordan Valley.
They are not really worried about the possibility that Israel might annex 10% or 20% or 30% of the West Bank. There is something that worries them much more than any part of the West Bank, and that is the very existence of Israel. The Islamic scholars and clerics believe that Israel has no right to sovereignty over Tel Aviv, Haifa, Nazareth, Tiberias, Jerusalem or and any other part of Israel.
The Islamic leaders even contradict their own statement by pretending to be worried only about the ostensible loss of West Bank land to Israel.
On the one hand, they say that "one of the most dangerous things that this [Israeli] enemy intends to do is to annex a part of the Palestinian lands to its usurping entity." They are pretending, in other words, that they are worried only about the "annexation" of parts of the West Bank.
On the other hand, The Islamic leaders emphasize that "Palestine, all of Palestine, from the [Mediterranean] sea to the [Jordan] river, is a Palestinian Arab Islamic land for which the Jews and Zionists have no right." They go on to explain that "this fact won't be changed by any measures taken by the [Israeli] enemy."
It is clear from the statement that whether the "annexation" plan is implemented or not, many Muslims would still reject the State of Israel because, in their view, it continues to "usurp" Palestinian Arab Islamic land stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. It is dead wrong to assume that if Israel abandons its plan, most Muslims would give up their desire to destroy Israel and replace it with an extremist Iran-style Islamic state.
To back up their argument even further that the main problem is not the West Bank, the scholars and clerics said that "recognizing the state of this usurping entity is a religious, legal, humanitarian and historical crime that must be immediately corrected by cancelling the abhorrent Oslo Accords."
So, the problem is not really the "annexation" plan that they want to see cancelled, but the Oslo Accords signed in 1993 and 1995 between Israel and the PLO. These accords marked the beginning of the so-called Israeli-Palestinian peace process after the PLO purportedly recognized Israel's right to exist in peace and security.
Declaring the accords "null and void," the scholars and clerics called on the Palestinian Authority and its president, Mahmoud Abbas, to "renounce the disastrous agreements, side with the people, and join forces with the resistance and its men." This is not only a direct threat to Abbas and his associates, but also an appeal to them to increase and upgrade their terror attacks against Israel.
As part of his attempt to appease the Palestinian public in general and Islamic extremists in particular, Abbas announced on May 19 his decision to renounce all agreements and understandings with Israel and the US, including security cooperation.
This decision, however, has failed to satisfy the Islamic scholars and clerics, as well as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. They are now demanding that he and his government and security forces explicitly join the armed struggle against Israel.
Moreover, they want Abbas openly to cancel the Oslo Accords in order to avoid being accused of committing a "religious, legal, humanitarian and historical crime" against his people.
Abbas's decision to walk away from the agreements with Israel and halt security coordination between his security forces and the Israeli authorities has actually worked up the appetite of leading Islamic officials. They are now calling on Palestinians to launch terror attacks against Israel, not because of the "annexation" plan, but in order to drive the Jews out of the "Palestinian Arab Islamic lands." In their statement, the scholars and clerics urged Palestinians to "rise and revolt against the Nazi occupier with all possible means."
Palestinians have often interpreted the term "all possible means" as a green light for carrying out various terror attacks, including suicide bombings, drive-by shootings, stabbings, vehicular rammings and firing rockets at Israeli cities.
When this green light comes from an influential religious body such as the Association of Palestine Scholars, of course it carries additional weight and credibility, especially for devout Muslims who spend most of their time in mosques and take seriously every word uttered by imams and other Islamic figures.
The next time a terrorist plunges a knife in the throat of a Jew, the blood-soaked hands will be those of such scholars and clerics. Abbas's fear of opening his mouth against these prominent Muslims at least makes some sense. The dead silence of the international community to this murderous incitement, however, makes much less sense. Those who are pressuring Israel not to proceed with the "annexation" plan need to hear what Islamic leaders are saying, day and night: that the conflict is not about Jewish settlements or the Jordan Valley, but the "big settlement" called Israel.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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How to Deal with China?: "Made in America"
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/June 25/2020
China's threats to punish Australia seem to be part of an increasingly bullying, aggressive approach by Chinese officials, not only toward Australia, but also toward India, and at least four other countries in the region: Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Japan, as well as islands in the Pacific.
The only real solution to China's duplicity and aggression would be for Western nations -- all 186 nations that were harmed by China's lies during the Covid-19 pandemic -- to cut all ties with China, to start a firm policy of "Made in America" or "Made Anywhere But China" to show a willing independence from a country that openly aspires to dominate the world.
China -- perhaps hoping that everyone is sufficiently distracted by the virus the Chinese Communist Party unleashed on it, as well as by the "free gifts" from China that, in their trade-off for freedom, promise to be fatal -- is clearly on the march. The world might remember that it would have been so much easier to stop Hitler before he crossed the Rhine.
China's Communist Party leadership was not pleased to hear a call from Australia for a global inquiry into the origin of the Covid-19 virus and China's possible role in it. China's threats to punish Australia seem to be part of an increasingly bullying, aggressive approach by Chinese officials towards countries in the region. Pictured: China's President Xi Jinping. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
China's Communist Party leadership was not pleased to hear a call from Australia for a global inquiry into the origin of the Covid-19 virus and China's possible role in it.
Australia further requested that the investigation be conducted outside the purview of the World Health Organization (WHO), which had had been spreading lies and disinformation about the transmissibility of the virus. China seems to have decided that Australia's insistence on an independent study was a violation of the spirit of their bilateral relationship. Indeed, for the past three decades, the Australian economy has been buoyed by expanding commercial ties with China. This relationship has now soured, and China has been threatening Australia with economic warfare unless it reconsiders its inquisitive foreign policy.
Making good on its threat, China slapped an 80% tariff on Australian barley and has threatened to boycott Australian wine and beef. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne has rejected any such attempts at economic coercion.
The attacks by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Australia's policies and politicians have since become even more strident and personal. Chinese state-affiliated social media accounts have called Australia "gum stuck to China's shoe" and suggested that Australia's head of government had been kicked in the head by a kangaroo. Also, Chinese State Security agents have attempted to silence independent Chinese-language media in Australia by pressuring advertisers to withdraw their sponsorship.
Beijing's threats to punish Australia seem to be part of an increasingly bullying, aggressive approach by Chinese officials, not only toward Australia, but also toward India, Taiwan and China's neighbors in the Pacific. The CCP is receiving growing resistance from the Pacific nations to China's aggressive expansionism. China will nevertheless continue to pull all the levers of its influence in Australia, and most likely elsewhere, to its advantage. China might, for instance, dispatch lobbyists to pressure Australian businessmen who have benefited from past economic cooperation with the Chinese in an effort to persuade political leaders to back off on their criticism of China for its handling of the COVID-19 virus.
China's decision to play hardball with Australia, however, might be a miscalculation. China's communist regime may have drawn the wrong conclusions about what they may have hoped would be Australia's lack of desire to protect its Free World values and its belief that such values are more important than short-term economic advantage.
Australia still needs to lessen its economic vulnerability to China. Extracting itself from the web of relationships that entangle Australia can extricate itself from the claws of the dragon. Australian meat exporters could increase shipments of pork products to Japan, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian neighbors. Australia, unlike China, enjoys warm relations with all members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Australia might capitalize on these cordial diplomatic ties to maximize mutually beneficial trade.
Australian political leaders could also create tax incentives to facilitate greater investment by Australian business leaders in India's enterprises, especially in defense-related industries. Australia could also divorce itself from Chinese supply lines by shifting them to other advanced economies in the region such as South Korea and Singapore. Australia could encourage wholesale imports of computer and electrical products from other East Asian manufacturers of these products. The Australians could decide no longer to export uranium to China from its own mines in the Northern Territory and elsewhere, and thereby discontinue servicing China's plans to construct about 100 nuclear power plants by 2025. Australia might well find a willing alternative customer in India.
Australia, on June 10, sent a clear message to China by fostering enhanced defense ties with India -- China's rival for Asian leadership. Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi, in a video conference, announced that the two countries had formed, as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in Asia, a comprehensive strategic partnership. Australian Minister of Defense Linda Reynolds praised the agreements, which will provide for interoperability of weapons systems and promote sharing defense technologies.
Australia is now ready to be a full partner in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a cooperative defense information dialogue consisting of the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia. Australia will likely also participate in the Indian-sponsored Malabar military exercise, which focuses on how India and Australia might better patrol international straits vital to commerce in the region by using military facilities on Indian and Australian off-shore islands and atolls.
China may continue to bellow, but Australia will remain bound to the West as a nation that embraces democratic political and free market economic values. Australian soldiers have fought alongside U.S. troops in every major conflict since World War I. For instance, Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers were among the first to deploy to Afghanistan after 9/11. Shared values between Australians and Americans -- and their ability to continue existing as members of the Free world -- should be a far more potent magnet than short-term profits.
The only real solution to China's duplicity and aggression would be for Western nations -- all 186 nations that were harmed by China's lies during the Covid-19 pandemic -- to cut all ties with China, to start a firm policy of "Made in America" or "Made Anywhere But China" to show a willing independence from a country that openly aspires to dominate the world.
China -- perhaps hoping that everyone is sufficiently distracted by the virus the Chinese Communist Party unleashed on it, as well as by the "free gifts" from China that, in their trade-off for freedom, promise to be fatal -- is clearly on the march. The world might remember that it would have been so much easier to stop Hitler before he crossed the Rhine.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
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International community must act on Iran’s nuclear defiance
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 25/2020
Politicians and state-controlled news outlets in Iran this week paid significant attention to a recently released report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the possibility of Iran’s nuclear file being sent to the UN Security Council (UNSC).
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif warned the European powers against involving the UNSC, according to the Tasnim News Agency. He said that, if Iran’s nuclear file was sent to the UNSC, the Islamic Republic has the ability to pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Ettela’at newspaper carried a story quoting Zarif under the headline: “Zarif: Iran to take strong decision if its case sent to UN Security Council.”
The NPT’s objectives are to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, while promoting the peaceful application of nuclear energy and technology. It also seeks to achieve nuclear disarmament throughout the world. As a party to the NPT, the Islamic Republic is required to reveal its nuclear sites and cooperate with the IAEA. The text of the agreement states: “Each non-nuclear-weapon state party to the treaty undertakes to accept safeguards… with a view to preventing the diversion of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.”
If Tehran pulls out of the NPT, it will no longer be required to release any information about its nuclear sites or its research and development, and it could pursue nuclear weapons if it desired to do so.
Nevertheless, Zarif’s threat to withdraw from the NPT is mainly rhetoric aimed at pressuring the EU not to report Iran’s nuclear case to the UNSC. Iran has long enjoyed many benefits of being a party to the NPT. One is that members can share the latest nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Secondly, Iran uses the NPT as cover for its covert nuclear activities. By being a party to the NPT, Tehran has gained global legitimacy while secretly pursuing its nuclear ambitions. In the last two decades, many clandestine nuclear sites have been detected, which Tehran failed to report to the IAEA as it is obligated to do under the NPT.A credible 2018 report from the Institute for Science and International Security explained that Tehran planned to build nuclear weapons in the early 2000s. It said: “Iran intended to build five nuclear warheads, each with an explosive yield of 10 kilotons and able to be delivered by ballistic missile… Another document available from the archive provides an early look at how Iran planned to achieve its goal of designing and manufacturing five nuclear weapons by about 2003.”
One of the factors that has raised questions about Iran’s nuclear file is the IAEA’s increasing concern about Tehran’s nuclear defiance. In March, the IAEA “identified a number of questions related to possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three locations in Iran.” The agency’s Director General Rafael Grossi stated: “The fact that we found traces (of uranium) is very important. That means there is the possibility of nuclear activities and material that are not under international supervision and about which we know not the origin or the intent.”
The IAEA this month also revealed that the Iranian regime is now violating all the restrictions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. The Iranian leaders justify their violations of the nuclear agreement by arguing that the US was first to break the JCPOA’s terms when it unilaterally withdrew in 2018. But Iran was breaching the deal even before the Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Tehran. For instance, in a 2018 speech to the UN General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that Iran had a “secret atomic warehouse for storing massive amounts of equipment and material from Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.” Although Iranian leaders insisted that the nuclear warehouse was actually just a carpet cleaning facility, traces of radioactive uranium were detected at the site by IAEA inspectors.
Zarif’s threat to withdraw from the NPT is mainly rhetoric aimed at pressuring the EU.
In order to keep the world safe, the international community must not surrender to Iran’s warnings. Tehran has long issued empty threats to force the world into accepting its demands. For example, in January, when the UK, France and Germany triggered the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism, Iran’s foreign ministry issued a direct warning, saying: “If Europeans, instead of keeping to their commitments and making Iran benefit from the lifting of sanctions, misuse the dispute resolution mechanism, they’ll need to be prepared for the consequences that they have been informed about earlier.”
It is incumbent on the signatories to the nuclear deal to report Tehran’s nuclear defiance and send the country’s nuclear dossier to the UNSC.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Iran may be passing troublemaking baton to Turkey
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 25/2020
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif last week gave his full support to Turkey during a press conference with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, who reciprocated by stating his country’s opposition to US sanctions. Zarif said: “We have common views with the Turkish side on ways to end the (crises) in Libya and Yemen.”A quick recap of the situation seems necessary, as alliances in the Middle East now shift from one file to another. So, in Syria, Turkey is fighting Bashar Assad and Iran, with Russia also on the opposite side. But, in the Libyan file, both Ankara and Tehran support the Government of National Accord (GNA), while anecdotally Russia and Assad support the Libyan National Army (LNA). Meanwhile, Zarif’s declaration was a direct invitation for Turkish involvement in Yemen, which neither nation should be involved in at all.
Turkey’s assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean has even pushed French President Emmanuel Macron to react by stating that Ankara is playing a dangerous game in Libya. It is, in fact, playing a dangerous game in a fast-growing number of files throughout the Middle East. Europe’s weakness and the increased competition between France and Italy over Libya have allowed for the situation to reach this chaos. With Italy supporting the GNA, this divided European voice and inability to resolve the situation has invited foreign interference from Turkey and Russia alike. This also happened as the US had, until recently, withdrawn from this file following the 2012 attack on its embassy in Benghazi and brutal terrorist killing of its ambassador, Christopher Stevens. He was killed by militant group Ansar Al-Sharia, which was defeated in 2017 by the LNA under Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar.
It is also clear that the Europeans have been weak and silent regarding the situation in the Levant and North Africa for quite some time now. First, they were blackmailed by Turkey when it opened its borders to Syrian refugees fleeing the crisis in that country. And, again earlier this year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to stop enforcing the agreement he reached with the EU on this issue in 2016. This has been described by European analysts as “weaponizing refugees.” Ankara claims it is doing so to push for its solution to the Idlib issue, but it is actually a much broader strategy to keep the pressure on Europe for its own benefits.
It is a fact that, due to the Russian involvement in Syria and the heavy US sanctions on Tehran, Iran was dwarfed and lost much of its capacity to maneuver. In this sense, it is not surprising that Iran — despite its opposition to Turkey in Idlib — would support it in Libya, especially against Russia. This shift was facilitated by the killing of Qassem Soleimani, who mastered the Levant files. As a result, we are also witnessing Turkey’s voice starting to rise in Iraq.
It seems that Iran, which finds itself in a difficult economic situation, is passing the baton of troublemaking in the region to Turkey. The Middle East has long suffered (and will continue to suffer) from Iranian interference in files that do not threaten its national security, but rather only increase its bargaining power with the superpowers of the world. It seems now that Turkey will also be active in the same way. This interference is also forcing Arab countries to get involved to oppose Ankara’s hegemonic strategy. It is in this sense that we can understand Egypt’s decision, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to get involved in Libya in support of its own national security by launching a conflict resolution initiative, which will probably be rejected by the GNA and its backers.
Turkey has been good at convincing the US and NATO that it is opposing Russia in both Syria and Libya in order to get support and a free hand. However, it seems that it is playing not just two cards, but several at the same time. Indeed, Turkey is also bargaining with and trying to reach understandings with Russia on both the Libyan and Syrian files.
Ankara sees that it can likely increase its leverage on Europe by imposing itself in Libya, especially as it seems that the US and France are on opposing sides for now. US President Donald Trump’s tough view that Europe should start pulling its weight in the Western alliance makes more sense than analysts admit. This should start with a unified foreign, military and security policy. Unfortunately, Europeans and Arabs alike suffer from divisions within their own ranks, which prevent them from intervening in unity and complicate all conflict resolution efforts.
Turkey is playing a dangerous game in a fast-growing number of files throughout the Middle East. The Middle East must be the region with the highest number of middle powers and the most minorities calling for foreign support and intervention. This is the perfect recipe for continuous conflict and crisis. The latest appeal came from none other than Lebanon’s so-called resistance leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who last week asked for China to step in. When he says such things, it is classed as an alliance of resistance, but when other minorities do the same it is an act of treason.
While many were surprised by the deal between Iran and Turkey — especially those who saw Ankara as a potential counter power to Tehran — they should remember that, ultimately, these two countries do not address the same crowds. Each wants to become the supreme leader of its own religious community and this could be the start of an alliance, or an understanding at the very least. It is also perhaps this solution for the Middle East that Turkey is trying to market to the global powers.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Trump tears up traditional US approach to Europe
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/June 25/2020
Donald Trump on Wednesday met with Polish President Andrzej Duda — his first face-to-face session with another world leader since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. His strong relationship with Duda highlights the way that the US’ Europe policy is recalibrating toward stronger ties with states with pro-Trump leaders, like Poland, but weaker relationships with some traditional allies, especially Germany.
For, while Duda got a glowing endorsement from Trump ahead of Sunday’s Polish presidential election, other European leaders — especially in Western European countries, which have traditionally been strong US allies — have been “frozen out.” For example, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has long had a difficult, frosty relationship with the US president. The latest evidence of this came at the end of last month, when Merkel was reportedly the only G7 leader to refuse to travel to the White House for the now-postponed June leadership meeting of the West’s largest economies. Trump seems to have taken great offense and it appears not a complete coincidence that, only days later, he announced plans to withdraw some 9,500 US troops from German bases. The White House, extraordinarily, did not tell Merkel about this move in advance.
The US military presence in Germany is, of course, a key legacy of the post-Second World War occupation of the country. Germany currently hosts by far the largest number of US forces in Europe, followed by Italy, the UK and Spain, and it is this that Trump is seeking to change as part of his policy reorientation toward Europe.
In making his announcement, Trump accused Berlin of being “delinquent” in its military spending, including its payments to NATO. What he refers to here is the failure of Germany to meet the target agreed by all of the military alliance’s members that defense spending should reach 2 percent of gross domestic product by 2024. Berlin, along with most other members, is some distance from meeting this target.
Poland is one of only a handful of NATO members that meet the 2 percent target, and Duda’s government has been much more welcoming of Trump than many others in Europe. So much so, in fact, that Warsaw in 2018 proposed to name a military base in the country “Fort Trump” in a bid to persuade the president to order a permanent presence of about 1,000 US troops in the country.
The US has provided succor for Poland in its battles with Brussels, given the Trump team’s deep skepticism about European supranationalism. As annoyed as he is with the continent about defense spending, it is economics that is the deepest source of frustration for the US president, given Europe’s big goods surplus with his country.Tensions are so high at the moment that US-EU trade wars could well be on the horizon on multiple fronts, from digital taxes to automobiles, with sanctions also possible over issues such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which Washington asserts will deepen Europe’s reliance on Russian energy. It is possible that all of these issues could come to a head in the second half of this US election year.
Earlier in his term of office, Trump remarkably declared: “I think the EU is a foe, what they do to us in trade.” And he has called for more “Brexits.” The contrast with US policy at the start of the European integration process could not be starker. Embodied in John F. Kennedy’s 1962 “Atlantic partnership” speech, the core US view back then was that a united Europe would make future wars in the continent less likely; create a stronger partner for the US in meeting the challenges posed by the Soviet Union; and offer a more vibrant market for building transatlantic prosperity.
However, US attitudes gradually became more ambivalent as integration deepened, particularly in recent Republican administrations. In the economic arena, for instance, the drive toward the European Single Market led to US concerns about whether this would evolve into a “fortress Europe.”
The US has provided succor for Poland in its battles with Brussels, given the Trump team’s deep skepticism about European supranationalism.
Prior to Trump, the George W. Bush administration came closest to questioning the value of European integration. The controversy over the Iraq conflict saw Washington querying the benefits of EU collaboration in the security and defense arena. On the eve of the NATO defense review of 2003, then-US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld even drew a distinction between “old” and “new” Europe, with the latter (mainly Eastern Europe) perceived as more favorable to US interests. This is a theme that has also become salient during the Trump era, with the president generally significantly more popular in key Eastern European states than he is in the west of the continent.
However, while the Bush team eventually recognized the need to draw back from this approach, it appears Trump may not be willing to do the same and has indeed raised the rhetoric several notches. This points to the very real prospect that, if the president is re-elected in November, overall transatlantic relations could continue to deteriorate.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Canada’s UN Security Council defeat a victory for international law
Fr. Robert Assaly/Arab News/June 25/2020
Functioning at the UN as Israel’s defense lawyer for its serial violations of international law has once again cost Canada a coveted UN Security Council (UNSC) seat. And rightly so, as the UN Charter unambiguously declares its objective as being “respect for international law.”
It was widely accepted that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s staunch support for Israel contributed to his defeat as he sought a UNSC seat a decade ago. And, only last month, UN appointee and recognized Canadian expert on international law Prof. Michael Lynk understatedly warned: “If Canada’s campaign for a council seat is once again unsuccessful, its taciturn approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will surely have been a contributing factor.”
In 2018, dozens of Canadian nongovernmental organizations encouraged Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and then-Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland into bidding for the temporary UNSC seat. However, they cautioned on Palestine that it was “now more imperative than ever that Canada’s voting record at the United Nations is one that reflects the principles of international law.” Nonetheless, shortly thereafter, Freeland announced that a UNSC seat would allow Canada to serve as an “asset for Israel.”
As Canada maintained months of silence in the face of worldwide condemnation over Israel’s threat of annexing Palestinian territory, last month more than 100 Canadian and international NGOs wrote to all UN ambassadors to ensure that Canada’s recalcitrance in the face of international law governing Palestinian rights didn’t go unnoticed. Corey Balsam, of Independent Jewish Voices Canada, observed: “Trudeau speaks a lot about the importance of maintaining a rules-based international order… but of course annexation is at complete odds with international law and those rules.”
But it was not always thus. Twenty years ago, when rose petals filled the fountain in front of the House of Commons at the passing of Pierre Trudeau, Prime Minister Jean Chretien reflected: “On the international stage, he gave us a profile and stature well beyond our size and power. Wherever we were in the world, he made us feel proud to be Canadians.” Days later, I was called to a meeting with the prime minister, in which he sought insights and support for continuing to steer Canada’s course on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the face of intense pressure from the Israeli lobby over Ottawa’s voting record the last time it sat on the UNSC.
Now, the bloom is off the rose. Canadian former UN ambassador for disarmament Peggy Mason recently stated that Palestinian rights “matter in the voting. It played a role in our unsuccessful 2010 campaign. It would have been unthinkable when I was ambassador — Canada voting with the US, Israel and sometimes the Marshall Islands — on UN resolutions where the entire rest of the UN is voting in favor.” She noted the hypocrisy of “isolating ourselves in that way when we’re a self-declared champion of international law, yet our voting record doesn’t reflect that.” Canada’s loss is the UN’s victory.
Canada’s failed campaign culminated with a desperate, if disingenuous, response to the NGO letter by the country’s ambassador to the UN: “This year, (Canada) voted yes on one more resolution” supporting Palestinian rights. This obscured the fact that it was one more than the previous zero under the current prime minister, while voting against 67.
Karen Rodman, of the law NGO Just Peace Advocates, observed: “Within Canada and internationally, civil society has spoken. Being an ‘asset for Israel’ while eroding international law is not acceptable.”
Canada’s approach at the UN is out of step with the desire of most Canadians to be an international force for peace and human rights.
Canada’s approach at the UN is out of step with the desire of most Canadians to be an international force for peace and human rights. An EKOS poll last week found that 74 percent of Canadians oppose Israeli annexation, while 42 percent even want to impose sanctions on Tel Aviv if the annexation plan proceeds.
The defeat ought to be a clarion call for the Ottawa government to join the Canadian and international consensus on Israel and international law.
*Fr. Robert Assaly is a deacon of the Montreal diocese and an ordained Catholic priest.