LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 22/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
When you were younger, you used to fasten your own belt and
to go wherever you wished. But when you grow old, you will stretch out your
hands, and someone else will fasten a belt around you and take you where you do
not wish to go.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 21/15-19:”When they had
finished breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, ‘Simon son of John, do you love
me more than these?’ He said to him, ‘Yes, Lord; you know that I love you.’
Jesus said to him, ‘Feed my lambs.’A second time he said to him, ‘Simon son of
John, do you love me?’ He said to him, ‘Yes, Lord; you know that I love you.’
Jesus said to him, ‘Tend my sheep.’He said to him the third time, ‘Simon son of
John, do you love me?’ Peter felt hurt because he said to him the third time,
‘Do you love me?’ And he said to him, ‘Lord, you know everything; you know that
I love you.’ Jesus said to him, ‘Feed my sheep. Very truly, I tell you, when you
were younger, you used to fasten your own belt and to go wherever you wished.
But when you grow old, you will stretch out your hands, and someone else will
fasten a belt around you and take you where you do not wish to go.’(He said this
to indicate the kind of death by which he would glorify God.) After this he said
to him, ‘Follow me.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on June 21-22/2019
Persian historic wars and reasons of defeat
UNIFIL spokesperson tells NNA situation along Blue Line maintains tranquility
President of Lebanon’s Association of Banks: Banking Sector Remains The
Strongest
Israel Mobilizes Troops to Monitor Lebanese Army Works in Naqoura
Jumblat Hits Out at Trump and 'Trump-Like' Lebanese Leaders
Report: Lebanon-Syria Border Control 'Impossible' Impacting
Retired Military End 3-Day Strike Until Further Notice
Syria Releases Lebanese Security Agents
Army Commander tackles developments with UK Ambassador
Qudra Programme rehabilitates 35 public schools in Lebanon
Hassan discusses with Kouman fight against organized crime, money laundering
Choucair talks bilateral relations with ambassadors of Cuba, Austria
Paraguayan extradited to Miami for key role in huge money laundering schemes,
feds say
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on June 21-22/2019
US Envoy: Iran Must Not Respond to Diplomacy with Military Force
Airlines Halt Hormuz Flights after Iran Drone Shootdown
Iran Says US Will Be Responsible for Military Action Against It
Iran Denies Receiving Trump Warning of U.S. Attack
U.S. Requests U.N. Security Council Meeting on Iran Monday
U.S. Poised to Tighten Sanctions on Iran over Terror Financing
Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Discuss Iranian 'Threat'
Emirates Airline Reroutes Flights amid U.S.-Iran Crisis
Oil Rises on Fears of US Attack on Iran
Turkey Defies EU Objections, Sends Second Drilling Ship to Cyprus
Eryani: Tehran Uses Yemen As Platform to Threaten International Shipping
Corridors
Cavusoglu in Iran after Moualem's Talk on Conditions of Normalization with
Turkey
Report: Designated Terror Supporter Subaiy Uses Finances at Doha Bank
Refugees Constitute 41% of Palestinian Population: Report
Mitsubishi Motors Shareholders Approve Ghosn’s Ouster
Hundreds of Jordanian Islamists protest against Trump peace plan
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 21-22/2019
Persian historic wars and reasons of defeat/Elias Bejjani/June 21/2019
Paraguayan extradited to Miami for key role in huge money laundering schemes,
feds say/Jay Weaver/Miami Herald/June 21/2019
JNS: “CAIR’s Philadelphia Branch is Among the Islamist Organization’s Most
Abhorrent/Raymond Ibrahim/June 21/2019
So Far, Iran's Policy Of Terror Attacks Is Successful/MEMRI/June 21/2019
Analysis/Trump’s Bahrain Conference – Not What You Imagined/Amos Harel/Haaretz/June
21/2019
Analysis/Iran, U.S. Are on the Warpath Again. This Time, Israel Has Little
Say/Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 21/2019
Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back
Michael D. Shear, Eric Schmitt, Michael Crowley and Maggie/Haberman/The New York
Times/June 20, 2019
Palestinian 'Moderates:' Rifles, Hand Grenades and Terrorism/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute/June 21, 2019
Without Israel and the Palestinians, what progress can be made in
Bahrain/Jackson Richman/Jewish Press/June 21/2019
What Have Trump’s Rallies Accomplished?/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/Friday, 21
June, 2019
The Scandal of Callamard’s Report/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/June 21/2019
The Death of Iran’s Japanese Dream/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June 21/2019
America Can Face Down a Fragile Iran/Reuel Marc Gerecht/Ray Takeyh/The Wall
Street Journal/June 21/2019
Drone attack – Iran needs to know it will pay a price for its risky
provocations/Mikhael Smits/David Adesnik/FDD/June 21/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on June 21-22/2019
Persian historic wars and reasons of defeat
Elias Bejjani/June 21/2019
The Persians all through their deeply rooted history, they were never ever able
to maintain and hold on to any victory they achieved in their many wars in the
region because of their over inflated ego, exaggerated arrogance and
psychological inability to take the necessary steps back when needed . I
strongly believe that these ill inherited traits will definitely lead them to a
disastrous end and a definite huge defeat with their current confrontation with
the free world powers
UNIFIL spokesperson tells NNA situation along Blue Line
maintains tranquility
NNA /Fri 21 Jun 2019
UNIFIL spokesperson, Andrea Tenenti, on Friday confirmed in a phone interview
with the National News Agency that the situation along the Blue Line was calm,
adding that UNIFIL has insisted that any activity near the Blue Line be
coordinated in advance to avoid any misunderstandings, reduce tension, prevent
incidents, and maintain tranquility in the region. "UNIFIL’s coordination
arrangements are at the disposal of all parties at any given time," Tenenti
affirmed. "The full freedom of UNIFIL’s movement and activity is an integral
part of the effective implementation of our mandate under UN Security Council
Resolution 1701; parties must ensure the safety, security, and freedom of
movement of UNIFIL soldiers," he added. Tenenti finally reaffirmed that the
situation along the Blue Line and in UNIFIL’s area of operations “maintains its
state of calm”. “UNIFIL's more than 10,400 peacekeepers from 43 countries
continue, in coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces, to carry out their
activities of more than 450 daily activities, as well as to observe a cessation
of hostilities,” he added.
President of Lebanon’s Association of Banks: Banking Sector
Remains The Strongest
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019/President of Lebanon’s
Association of Banks, Dr. Joseph Torbey, said that the banking sector was the
strongest in the country, describing it as “one of the most important banking
sectors in the world and the most successful sector in the Arab
region.”President Michel Aoun met with Torbey at the Baabda Palace on Thursday,
with whom he discussed the country’s financial and banking situation. In remarks
following the meeting, Torbey said: “The banking sector has managed to maintain
its liquidity levels and deposits. Despite doing so at a higher cost, the
current situation still creates future confidence; no matter how volatile the
circumstances are, the Lebanese banking sector remains the strongest.”He
continued: “It is important for the Lebanese people to know that the banking
sector in Lebanon is among the most important in the world. It is the most
successful sector in the Arab region and it is a strategic pillar for the
prosperity of Lebanon's economy.” Torbey noted that talks with Aoun touched on
the pressing need to accelerate reforms in the electricity sector. He also said
that the elections of the Association of Banks will be held on June 29.
Israel Mobilizes Troops to Monitor Lebanese Army Works in Naqoura
Naharnet/June 21/2019
Israel has mobilized its troops to monitor the construction works carried out by
the Lebanese army to build a military control tower in Ras al-Naqoura, the
National News Agency reported on Friday. NNA said Israel has mobilized troops,
military vehicles on land and sea in the Ras Naqoura village, at the border
between Lebanon and Israel to monitor the army’s works. It also dispatched two
military boats and intensified patrols opposite Ras Naqoura and Alma al-Shaab .
They monitored the Lebanese Armed Forces Directorate of Engineering while
constructing the tower.
Jumblat Hits Out at Trump and 'Trump-Like' Lebanese Leaders
Naharnet/June 21/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Friday criticized the
policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, amid an escalating standoff between
Washington and Tehran.
“Where to? Yes, where to? Today more than ever I'm thinking of this question: to
where is the world being dragged by America's ruler and to where are we being
dragged by those who are like him in Lebanon?” Jumblat asked in a tweet. He had
recently compared Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran
Bassil, who is President Michel Aoun's son-in-law, to Trump's son-in-law Jared
Kushner.
Report: Lebanon-Syria Border Control 'Impossible' Impacting
Naharnet/June 21/2019
Lebanon says that complete border control between Lebanon and Syria is very
difficult because of intertwined boundaries that also extend along a large
distance of about 360 km which negatively affects the security and economy of
the country, Asharq al-Awsat reported on Friday. “The main factor that makes it
very difficult to completely control the Lebanese-Syrian border is that it is
very large (about 360 km) and intertwined in many locations,” military sources
told the daily on condition of anonymity. Lebanese officials have long
recognized the existence of illegal crossings between Lebanon and Syria dating
back to the 1970s, through which people and goods are smuggled, which negatively
affects the security and economy of the country without succeeding in putting an
end to this phenomenon, said the daily. But the recognition by Finance Minister
Ali Hassan Khalil a few days ago of the existence of more than 124 smuggling
points in Lebanon, he said “threatens the economy of the country, contributes to
the public deficit and reduces imports.” He also spoke about the “contribution
of some parties” in these violations and whether there was a serious official
decision to terminate them. The military sources said that despite all of this,
the situation has greatly improved especially after the “Dawn of Outskirts”
battle launched by the army in 2017, that expelled militants of the Islamic
State terror group from Lebanese border land. They pointed out that currently,
the border control is greatly dependent on control towers, barriers and patrols,
because deploying army elements on the entire border is not possible because of
the limited potentials. “Absolute control of the border is almost impossible,
mainly in North of Lebanon, where the land is largely intertwined,” they said.
People and goods are smuggled through illegal crossings between Lebanon and
Syria, especially after the closure of the border to displaced persons. They are
forced to issue official residence permits and pay fees. They also smuggle
cigarettes, electronic devices, fruits and vegetables, marble, poultry and other
goods. Due to smuggling, the Lebanese government loses an estimated $600 million
in customs expenses. During the discussion of the draft 2019 state budget in
Cabinet and during the recent meetings of the Higher Council for Defense, a
decision was made to control these crossings to ensure that these funds go to
the treasury and reduce the deficit.
Retired Military End 3-Day Strike Until Further Notice
Naharnet/June 21/2019
A grouping of retired military servicemen suspended their strike on Friday after
three days of protests outside the Imports building of the Finance Ministry over
proposed salary cuts in the 2019 draft state budget. A spokesman for the
protesters said the campaigners have ended their strike awaiting the outcome of
the Finance and Budget parliamentary Committee. The committee has been
discussing and reviewing the draft 2019 state budget. The retirees have
reportedly rejected lately a proposal on “dropping the income tax and keeping
the 3% deduction from salary” for medical care. After ending their strike, the
protesters vowed escalation measures and closing major public facilities
including the Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut.
Syria Releases Lebanese Security Agents
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 21/2019
Syria has released on Friday the two Lebanese security agents who crossed by
mistake into the neighboring country, the state-run National News Agency
reported on Friday. NNA reported that the two members of the State Security
Department, identified as Rayan Olabi and Raydan Sharrouf, have been in the
custody of Syrian troops for four days. They were captured while on a hiking
trip in a mountainous region in southeast Lebanon. Contacts between Lebanese and
Syrian authorities guaranteed the release of the two. The agents hail from the
villages of Rashaya in the eastern Bekaa Valley, and Bikfaya area in Northern
Metn, said NNA. Such incidents are rare along the border, though smuggling
between the two countries is widespread. The incident occurred near Mount Hermon
where the borders of Lebanon, Syria and Israel meet. Syrian troops now control
all the area along the border with Lebanon after evicting insurgents from some
border areas over the past years.
Army Commander tackles developments with UK Ambassador
NNA /Fri 21 Jun 2019
Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday welcomed at his Yarzeh office,
British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, who visited him with an
accompanying delegation.
Talks between Aoun and the UK delegation reportedly touched on the general
situation in Lebanon and the region.
Qudra Programme rehabilitates 35 public schools in Lebanon
NNA /Fri 21 Jun 2019
The official handover ceremony of 35 schools rehabilitated under the Qudra
Programme was held at the Al Barouk Primary Mixed School premises in Chouf,
Mount Lebanon. In a press release by the Programme, it said: "The event took
place under the patronage of Lebanese Minister of Education and Higher Education
Akram Chehayeb and in the presence of German Ambassador to Lebanon Dr Georg
Birgelen, Head of Lebanon programmes at the Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) Lebanon Dr Christiane Gaehtgens, the Mayour
of Barouk-Freidiss Mr Elie Nakhleh and representatives from the European
Delegation to Lebanon. During the event, the Qudra Programme presented the two
pillars under the education infrastructure component covering rehabilitation of
school buildings and implementation of extracurricular activities. Through arts
and sports stations, the students presented activities where they worked with
international and local artists, teachers and social workers on creating public
murals and using sports to enhance integration and participation among children
from various communities. The school is one of 35 schools rehabilitated by Qudra
Programme all over Lebanon reaching 25.000 students. Qudra Programme's
"Education Infrastructure" Module in Lebanon promotes non-discriminatory access
to quality education and enhance conditions at schools for Lebanese host
communities and Syrian refugees. The programme focused on gender equality in
both selecting the schools, design and implementation of the activities.
Therefore, over 50% of beneficiaries of the programme were girls. The Qudra
Programme is a regional action financed by the EU Regional Trust Fund in
Response to the Syrian Crisis, the 'Madad' Fund, and the German Government
seeking to strengthen resilience for Syrian refugees, IDPs and host communities
in response to the Syrian and Iraqi crises. The programme is jointly implemented
by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH,
Expertise France (EF), the Spanish Agency for International Development (AECID)
and Hungarian Interchurch Aid (HIA)."
Hassan discusses with Kouman fight against organized crime,
money laundering
NNA /Fri 21 Jun 2019
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Raya Al-Hassan, on Friday welcomed the
Secretary-General of the Council of Arab Interior Ministers, Mohammed Ali Kouman,
and discussed with him the need to boost coordination over a number of security
issues, especially combating crimes in the Arab arena. After the meeting, Kouman
said that he had thanked Al-Hassan for her efforts during the Arab Interior
Ministers’ conference and expressed appreciation for Lebanon’s participation and
presence in all meetings. “We have discussed a number of issues related to
organized crime, money laundering, and efforts to combat these crimes. I wish
the Lebanese security success in their efforts in all fields,” Kouman added.
Choucair talks bilateral relations with ambassadors of
Cuba, Austria
NNA/Fri 21 Jun 2019
Minister of Telecommunications Mohammed Choucair, on Friday received Cuba's
Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Pellicer Moraga, with whom he discussed means
of bolstering bilateral relations particularly in the economic domain. Minister
Choucair stressed Lebanon's interest in strengthening economic relations with
Cuba, emphasizing the need to increase trade exchange between the two countries,
notably with the presence of many opportunities.
For his part, Ambassador Pellicer emphasized willingness to take the necessary
measures to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation. Choucair also met with
Austrian Ambassador to Lebanon, Marian Werba, with talks reportedly touching on
means to enhance bilateral relations. Choucair underlined the need to bolster
economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, in particular
facilitating the entry of Lebanese products into Austrian markets. Choucair
spoke about the progress realized in the advancement of the Lebanese
telecommunications sector and the possibility of Lebanon benefiting from the
experience of Austrian companies in this field. Ambassador Werba, in turn,
emphasized his country's interest in strengthening economic relations with
Lebanon.
Paraguayan extradited to Miami for key role in huge money laundering schemes,
feds say
اللبناني نادر محمد فرحات أحد رجال حزب الله
أمام القضاء الأميركي بعد ترحيله من بارغوي
Jay Weaver/Miami Herald/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76022/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%85%d8%af-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%ad%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a3%d8%ad%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article231810213.html
A Paraguayan businessman accused of moving hundreds of millions
of dollars around the globe for drug traffickers and other criminals with
suspected links to the terrorist group Hezbollah was extradited Thursday to
Miami to face money laundering charges in the United States.
Nader Mohamad Farhat, operator of one of the biggest currency exchange
businesses in the Tri-Border Area of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil, has his
first appearance in Miami federal court Friday to decide whether he will face
money laundering charges in Miami or in New York.
Farhat is perhaps the biggest U.S. target ever to be extradited from the
Paraguayan hub, which federal authorities consider a giant washing machine for
Latin American drug profits, knockoff consumer goods and terrorist fund-raising.
Authorities say vast sums of illicit money move through currency exchange
businesses in Paraguay — described recently as a “very notorious area” by a
prosecutor in Miami federal court — to finance Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated
terrorist group aligned with Iran. The Shiite militant group has gained
political and financial influence far beyond its base in Lebanon, extending all
the way to South America, New York and Miami.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Miami confirmed that Farhat was extradited to the
United States, but declined to comment about whether he has been charged with
money laundering here — despite mention of such a Miami case in New York federal
court records. Two similar criminal cases filed in New York portray Farhat as
the head of a currency exchange business in Paraguay that moves hundreds of
millions of dollars to and from the United States and other parts of the world.
Farhat, who is of Lebanese descent, and his supporters have been fighting his
extradition since his arrest on May 17, 2018, by Paraguayan authorities, who
were assisted by Drug Enforcement Administration agents. The Lebanese Embassy in
Asuncion, Paraguay’s capital, pressured the Paraguayan government to reject the
U.S. request for his extradition, to no avail.
Farhat is connected to at least four criminal cases in Miami and New York
involving extensive wire payments for consumer products as well as drug-related
money transfers around the globe, according to federal court records and law
enforcement authorities. Among the case investigators are FBI, Homeland Security
and other federal agents with the Joint Terrorism Task Force.
Over the past decade, U.S. authorities in Miami and New York have been using
money-laundering laws to disrupt Hezbollah’s alleged financial network in the
Tri-Border Area, mainly because it is so difficult to prove that the
international circulation of money directly supports terrorist activities aimed
at Israel and other Western allies. Farhat has not been charged with any
terrorism-related offense, only with playing a central role in money laundering
conspiracies.
Farhat and one of his customers, Mahmoud Ali Barakat, who imports cellphones
from the U.S. to his chain of stores in Paraguay, have been charged together
with conspiring to commit money laundering by promoting drug trafficking,
unlicensed money transmitting and wire fraud. Farhat, also known as “Diesel,” is
also charged alone with money laundering stemming from an undercover federal
operation involving purported drug proceeds. Barakat, who was extradited last
November to New York, was not implicated in that sting.
Barakat only used Farhat’s money-exchange business, Cambios Unique S.A., for his
money transfers to the United States. Technically, the company is owned by
Farhat’s wife, Renata Wu., according to court records.
Federal prosecutors pointed out in court papers that the Farhat-Barakat case is
related to another money-laundering conspiracy indictment filed in New York,
charging seven defendants last November. That case accuses two owners of several
electronics and mobile-phone businesses in New York and Miami of using the
import-export companies to transfer proceeds from financial crimes and the sale
of narcotics in the United States to drug dealers in South America.
The lead defendant is Enayatullah Khwaja, a New Yorker who owns and manages
Tronix Telecom Corp., and also manages Sysco International, which share a
warehouse in Miami. His cousin, Abdulrahman Khwaja, also named as a defendant,
is a New Yorker who owns and manages similar businesses, including ISK Corp.,
Solid Wireless and Solid Electronics in Miami.
Farhat not only has direct links to the Khwaja and Barakat cases, but his
currency-exchange business in Paraguay is also implicated in a Miami
money-laundering case, according to federal law enforcement sources.
Farhat’s money-exchange company — located in the Jebai Center, the most upscale
shopping mall in Ciudad del Este — helped finance the distribution of
counterfeit electronics goods as well as wire transfers totaling millions of
dollars, the sources said.
One of his customers was Ali Nasreeddine Kassir, a Lebanese-born businessman who
was sentenced to two years in prison after pleading guilty in Miami federal
court last November to passport fraud and conspiring to commit money laundering.
According to his plea agreement, Kassir used his shipping company, An Imex Inc.,
to import counterfeit Apple iPhone batteries and Samsung car chargers from
China. In Miami, Kassir exported the products via direct cargo flights to
electronics retailers in Ciudad del Este.
After he was caught orchestrating the illicit shipments in 2015-17, Kassir used
another company, 4GGlobal Trading, as a shell in an attempt to evade detection
by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, according to a statement filed with his
plea deal.
Over a three-year period, Kassir withdrew almost $155 million from his An Imex
account, the majority of the funds for wire transfers, the statement said. Yet,
despite his business claiming to consist almost entirely of exporting goods to
Paraguay, the value of the products he reported to U.S. Customs was about $85
million.
The huge discrepancy totaled almost $70 million in suspicious wire transfers,
prosecutors said.
**Jay Weaver writes about bad guys who specialize in con jobs, rip-offs and
squirreling away millions. Since joining the Miami Herald in 1999, he’s covered
the federal courts nonstop, from Elian’s custody battle to A-Rod’s steroid use.
He was on the Herald team that won the Pulitzer Prize for breaking news in 2001.
He and three Herald colleagues were Pulitzer Prize finalists for explanatory
reporting in 2019 for a series on tons of gold being smuggled from South America
to Miami.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
June 21-22/2019
US Envoy: Iran Must Not Respond to Diplomacy with Military
Force
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
The United States envoy on Iran, Brian Hook, condemned on Friday Iran’s
escalatory actions in the region, saying it was “important we do everything” to
ease the tensions. “Our diplomacy does not give Iran the right to respond with
military force, Iran needs to meet our diplomacy with diplomacy and not military
force,” he told a news conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh. “It’s important
we do everything we can to de-escalate.”He said that Washington’s pressure
campaign on Tehran was yielding results, adding that US sanctions have deprived
the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps of funds it was using to carry out
attacks. Moreover, Hook stressed that Iran’s use of proxies to attack Saudi
Arabia must be confronted. It is important to prevent Iran from acquiring a
foothold in Yemen to keep it from threatening the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, he
continued, warning of a greater conflict in the region if Tehran’s plans in the
war-torn country are not thwarted. The envoy made his remarks as day after an
Iranian surface-to-air missile brought down an RQ-4A Global Hawk an unmanned
aircraft. The shootdown has further escalated tensions between Iran the US as
Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers unravels.
Airlines Halt Hormuz Flights after Iran Drone Shootdown
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Major carriers from around the world, including Emirates, British Airways,
Qantas and Singapore Airlines, on Friday suspended flights over the Strait of
Hormuz, as Iran-US tensions flare over the downing of a drone. The suspensions
came after the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States issued a
Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) prohibiting US-registered aircraft from operating over
the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The Administration warned of a "potential for
miscalculation or misidentification" in the region after an Iranian
surface-to-air missile on Thursday brought down a US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk, an
unmanned aircraft with a wingspan larger than a Boeing 737 jetliner and costing
over $100 million. The US said it made plans for limited strikes on Iran in
response, but then called them off. The operation was abruptly called off with
just hours to go, a US official said. The official, who was not authorized to
discuss the operation publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the
targets would have included radars and missile batteries. The New York Times
reported that President Donald Trump had approved the strikes Thursday night,
but then called them off. The newspaper cited anonymous senior administration
officials. The FAA previously warned of a risk in the region, but Friday's
warning threw into stark relief a danger both it and analysts warned was real.
"The threat of a civil aircraft shoot-down in southern Iran is real," warned
OPSGROUP, a company that provides guidance to global airlines. The FAA made a
similar warning in May to commercial airliners of the possibility of Iranian
anti-aircraft gunners mistaking them for military aircraft, something dismissed
by Tehran some 30 years after the US Navy shot down an Iranian passenger jet.
The FAA's latest notice applies only to US-registered airlines, and United
Airlines said it was suspending its Newark-Mumbai service in response. But
European and Asian operators were taking no chances. "Our safety and security
team are constantly liaising with authorities -- including the likes of the FAA
-- around the world as part of their comprehensive risk assessment into every
route we operate," a BA spokeswoman said. Germany's Lufthansa followed suit in
bypassing the Hormuz area. Dutch carrier KLM said: "Safety is the top priority
for KLM. "The incident with the drone is reason not to fly over the Strait of
Hormuz for the time being. This is a precautionary measure."UAE’s Emirates
Airline said it has taken precautionary measures including rerouting all flights
away from areas of possible conflict. Australia's flag carrier Qantas said:
"We're adjusting our flight paths over the Middle East to avoid the Strait of
Hormuz and Gulf of Oman until further notice."Singapore Airlines echoed Qantas
and the other long-haul operators transiting over Iran, saying that some of its
"flights may be taking slightly longer routings to avoid the affected Strait of
Hormuz area".
Iran Says US Will Be Responsible for Military Action
Against It
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Iran has informed the United States that Washington will be held responsible for
the consequences of any military action against it, the Fars news agency said on
Friday. The message was handed to the Swiss ambassador in Tehran who relayed it
to Washington. Switzerland looks after the US interests in Iran as Tehran and
Washington have had no diplomatic relations since 1979. Iran's foreign ministry,
which summoned the ambassador, had told the envoy that Iran was not pursuing war
with the United States, reported the IRNA news agency. Separately, the agency
quoted Mohsen Baharvand, director of the Iranian foreign ministry department for
the Americas, as saying: "If the side facing us take provocative and unthought-out
actions, they will receive a reciprocal response whose consequences are
unpredictable, and the loss and damage of it will be on all sides." Earlier,
Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from
US President Donald Trump through Oman overnight warned that a US attack on Iran
was imminent. "In his message, Trump said he was against any war with Iran and
wanted to talk to Tehran about various issues ... he gave a short period of time
to get our response but Iran's immediate response was that it is up to Supreme
Leader (Ali) Khamenei to decide about this issue," one of the officials told
Reuters on condition of anonymity. The second official said: "We made it clear
that the leader is against any talks, but the message will be conveyed to him to
make a decision ... However, we told the Omani official that any attack against
Iran will have regional and international consequences."
The US said it had made plans for limited strikes on Iran in response, but then
called them off. An Iranian surface-to-air missile fired early Thursday brought
down the RQ-4A Global Hawk, an unmanned aircraft with a wingspan larger than a
Boeing 737 jetliner. The shootdown has further escalated tensions between Iran
the US as Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers unravels. Iran later summoned
the Swiss ambassador to Tehran to protest what it claimed was the drone’s
incursion into Iranian airspace. The US disputed that, saying the aircraft was
shot down on Thursday over international waters, not inside Iranian airspace.
Later, Iranian state television's website published images it says show debris
from the surveillance drone. The pictures show what appears to be the skin of
the aircraft. Iranian state television did not say where the debris was filmed.
The photographs did not show any circuit boards, wiring or electronic equipment.
Iran Denies Receiving Trump Warning of U.S. Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 21/2019
Iran denied Friday a report that President Donald Trump warned of an imminent
attack by the United States, in retaliation for the Islamic republic shooting
down a U.S. drone. "America did not send any message through Oman for Iran,"
said Keyvan Khosravi, spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
"There is no truth in that," he added, quoted by state television. Khosravi's
denial follows a foreign media report which, citing Iranian officials, said Oman
relayed a message from Trump overnight warning of an imminent U.S. attack unless
the Islamic republic agreed to negotiate. Iran and the United States have no
diplomatic relations and Oman has in the past served as an intermediary between
the two countries. Trump said Friday the U.S. was "cocked & loaded to retaliate"
the previous night by striking three sites, but that he stopped the attack just
10 minutes before they were carried out. Washington argues its surveillance
drone was above international waters when it was shot down by Iran early
Thursday, while Tehran insists the aircraft violated its airspace.
U.S. Requests U.N. Security Council Meeting on Iran Monday
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 21/2019
The United States has requested a closed-door U.N. Security Council meeting on
Iran and the latest developments in the Gulf, diplomats said Friday. The
discussions would touch on both the recent attacks against oil tankers in the
Gulf and the Iranian downing of a US spy drone, a diplomat said on condition of
anonymity. Another diplomat told AFP the meeting would take place Monday
afternoon. President Donald Trump said Friday he had planned air strikes on
Iranian targets after Tehran shot down a U.S. reconnaissance drone, but opted at
the last minute to scrap the operation because it was not a "proportionate"
response. Washington also has accused Iran of responsibility for carrying out
attacks on tankers in the congested shipping lanes heading out of the Gulf
through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran denies any involvement.
U.S. Poised to Tighten Sanctions on Iran over Terror
Financing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 21/2019
The United States is set to increase pressure on Iran for failing to head off
funds to terrorists, threatening new sanctions if Tehran fails to comply,
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Friday. Amid rising tensions in recent
days after Iran shot down an American drone, President Donald Trump early Friday
appeared to preview the tougher stance on Twitter, saying "Sanctions are biting
& more added last night."The country has faced a growing series of US economic
sanctions over the past year, as Treasury has blacklisted numerous firms and
officials to choke off their access to funds following Trump's decision to
abandon the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor. In a speech in
Florida, Mnuchin called out "Iran's willful failure to address its systemic
money laundering and terrorist financing deficiencies." He said an international
task force will set a new deadline for the country to comply or face additional
sanctions. The 38-nation Financial Action Task Force (FATF) had suspended
measures against Iran but in February warned that it would be subject to
increased scrutiny if it failed to implement promised reforms by this month to
prevent money laundering and terrorist financing.
Mnuchin also said the FATF would call for suspended sanctions to be reimposed
"if Iran does not make further progress," and would require "increased
supervisory examination for branches and subsidiaries of financial institutions
based in Iran. A Trump administration official told AFP in an email the task
force would on Friday afternoon announce the new oversight requirements and
deadline as well as the "additional counter-measures" Iran could face if it
fails to comply by the deadline.
Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Discuss Iranian 'Threat'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 21/2019
U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman
on Friday discussed the "threat" posed by Iran, the White House said, after
Washington pulled back from launching strikes against Tehran. "The two leaders
discussed Saudi Arabia's critical role in ensuring stability in the Middle East
and in the global oil market. They also discussed the threat posed by the
Iranian regime's escalatory behavior," a White House statement said. Trump's
call with his close but controversial ally came shortly after he said he was in
"no hurry" to attack Iran -- a rival of Saudi Arabia -- over its downing of a
U.S. spy drone.
Emirates Airline Reroutes Flights amid U.S.-Iran Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 21/2019
Dubai-based airline Emirates Airline said Friday it rerouted flights to avoid
"areas of possible conflict", a day after Iran shot down a U.S. reconnaissance
drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Some of the world's leading carriers, including
British Airways, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, suspended flights over the
strategic waterway amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
"In light of the current situation, Emirates has taken precautionary measures
including rerouting all flights away from areas of possible conflict," a
spokesperson for the airline said. "We are carefully monitoring the ongoing
developments and are in close contact with the relevant government authorities
with regards to our flight operations, and will make further operational changes
if the need arises." The suspensions came after the Federal Aviation
Administration in the United States issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM)
"prohibiting U.S.-registered aircraft from operating over the Persian Gulf and
Gulf of Oman."Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said on Friday it was "carefully
monitoring the situation" and that "contingency plans are in place." Meanwhile,
Dubai's low-cost carrier flydubai said it "adjusted some of the existing flight
paths in the region as a precautionary measure." The NOTAM was in response to
"heightened military activities and increased political tensions that might
place commercial flights at risk", an FAA statement said, as Tehran and
Washington engaged in a war of words over Thursday's missile strike on the
drone.
Iran's downing of the drone -- which Washington insists was above international
waters but Iran says was within its airspace -- has seen tensions between the
two countries spike further after a series of attacks on tankers blamed by the
U.S. on Tehran.
Oil Rises on Fears of US Attack on Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Oil prices rallied towards $65 per barrel on fears of a US military attack on
Iran. Brent crude was up 42 cents, or 0.66 percent, at $64.87 a barrel by 0850
GMT. The global benchmark jumped 4.3 percent on Thursday and was up around five
percent for the week, in its first weekly gain in five weeks. US West Texas
Intermediate crude was up 21 cents, or 0.38 percent, at $57.28 a barrel. The US
benchmark surged 5.4 percent on Thursday and was on track for a 9 percent
increase this week. "Crude prices are spiking on increased Middle East tensions
after Iran shot down a US drone in what the US claims is international
airspace," said Jason Gammel from Jefferies. Iran said it had shot the drone
over its territory. Tensions have been on the rise because US sanctions on Iran
have severely reduced oil exports from the country and Washington has blamed
Tehran for a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf. "There is no doubt
that a severe disruption to the transit of oil through this vulnerable route
would be extremely serious," said consultancy FGE Energy in a note.
Turkey Defies EU Objections, Sends Second Drilling Ship to
Cyprus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Turkey defied on Thursday sanctions warnings by the European Union by sending a
second drilling ship to conduct natural gas operations off the northeast coast
of Cyprus for three months. Ankara, which does not have diplomatic relations
with Cyprus, claims that certain areas in Cyprus’s offshore maritime zone, known
as an EEZ, fall under the jurisdiction of Turkey or of Turkish Cypriots, who
have their own breakaway state in the north of the island recognized only by
Turkey. Cyprus says that defining its EEZ is its sovereign right. Energy
Minister Fatih Donmez said at the launch of the vessel, Yavuz, it would operate
in a borehole near Cyprus’ Karpas Peninsula, and reach a depth of 3,300 meters
(3,609 yards). Turkey already has a ship offshore Cyprus and Nicosia last week
issued arrest warrants for its crew. EU leaders warned Turkey on Thursday to end
its gas drilling in disputed waters or face action from the bloc, after Greece
and Cyprus pressed other EU states to speak out. At an EU summit in Brussels,
leaders issued a formal statement saying Turkey’s drilling is “illegal” and that
the bloc “stands ready to respond appropriately.”“The European Council
underlines the serious immediate negative impact that such illegal actions have
across the range of EU-Turkey relations,” leaders said, using the official title
of their summit. “The European Council calls on Turkey to show restraint.”The
statement also threatened “targeted measures”: EU code for possible travel bans
and asset freezes of Turkish companies and individuals involved in the drilling.
The dispute has escalated in the past month and also risks straining Ankara’s
relations with its western allies. Donmez said unilateral agreements made
between Cyprus and the regional countries that attempted to “steal” the rights
of Turkey and Turkish Cypriots had “no legal validity”. “Turkey will continue
its operations in its own continental shelf and in areas where the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus has licensed Turkiye Petrolleri without stopping,”
Donmez said, referring to Turkey’s main oil exploration company. In a dig at the
28-member EU, Donmez said Turkey rejects "attempts by actors from outside the
region to delineate" the eastern Mediterranean. The bloc will now ask its
foreign service, the European External Action Service, to put forward options,
the statement said. Cyprus has threatened to jeopardize the EU membership bids
of North Macedonia and Albania if the bloc does not take action against Ankara.
One senior EU official said that, aside from sanctions, one option was to end
talks with Turkey over extending a customs union, which already allows
tariff-free trade with the EU for industrial goods but not services or
agriculture. Another option could be formally suspending Turkey’s status as an
official candidate to become a member of the European Union, although talks have
been frozen for over a year. Cyprus has divided its EEZ off its southern coast
into 13 blocks, or areas. Turkey says parts of three blocks off the island's
west coast fall within its own continental shelf. Turkish Cypriots claim most of
seven blocks in the east. The Cypriot government says any potential gas proceeds
will be shared equitably with Turkish Cypriots after a reunification deal is
agreed upon and has created a fund into which all such revenues will flow.
Cyprus was divided in 1974 after a Turkish invasion triggered by a brief
Greek-inspired coup. Several peacemaking endeavors have failed and the discovery
of offshore resources has increasingly complicated peace negotiations.
Eryani: Tehran Uses Yemen As Platform to Threaten
International Shipping Corridors
Washington/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Yemeni Information Minister Muammar al-Eryani warned against Iran’s continued
practices in the region during his meetings with US officials at the White House
on Thursday. “Iran is spreading terrorism through its Houthi agents and is using
Yemen as a platform to threaten neighboring countries and international shipping
corridors, and continues to smuggle weapons and support the Houthi militias,”
the Yemeni minister said during a meeting with US National Security Council
officials. Eryani warned of the terrorist practices of the Iranian-backed coup
militias, their promotion of sectarian terrorist ideology and the recruitment of
children in schools. He stressed that the Yemeni legitimacy “cannot accept any
role of Iran in Yemen,” adding that the Iranian regime has “given our country
and our people only death, destruction, and sectarian feelings.”The Iranian
minister briefed US officials on “the legitimate government’s efforts to
normalize public life in liberated areas, combat terrorism and extremism,
rebuild devastated villages and restore the social fabric,” which he said the
militias were destroying. He also pointed to the Saudi-sponsored rehabilitation
program for children and its role in reintegrating formerly recruited children
in the society. The Yemeni minister called on the international community and
the United States to exert all forms of pressure on Iran to stop its
destabilizing activities in Yemen and the rest of the region.
Cavusoglu in Iran after Moualem's Talk on Conditions of
Normalization with Turkey
Ankara - Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad
Javad Zarif, have held the first round of their bilateral talks in Isfahan on
Friday morning. During the talks, Cavusoglu expressed satisfaction with his
visit to Iran and the historical and cultural city of Isfahan, and said Ankara
is ready to deepen and strengthen mutual ties with Iran in various political,
economic and cultural fields. Zarif, in turn, said bilateral ties between Iran
and Turkey have been moving in the right direction. He said the visit of his
Turkish counterpart is highly significant for developing strategic relations and
the signing of a document on political consultations between the Iranian and
Turkish foreign ministries. The Iranian FM also referred to the recent meeting
between the presidents of Iran and Turkey in Tajikistan and the agreements
reached earlier between the two sides, expressing Iran’s readiness to increase
the volume of bilateral trade. The two officials also exchanged views on issues
in energy, banking, and tourism. Zarif visited Ankara in April and met Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, following a visit to Damascus where he held
talks with the head of the regime, Bashar al-Assad. The Iranian FM discussed
efforts to normalize ties with regional countries including Turkey and Syria.
Meanwhile, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem renewed the necessity of
pulling out Turkish forces from Syria and halting support to terrorist groups
for the sake of normalizing ties between Damascus and Ankara. During a TV
interview on Wednesday, Moualem reiterated the remarks he made in Beijing on
Tuesday that Syria doesn’t seek a military confrontation with Turkey. “Idlib is
a Syrian province and the operations the Syrian army is conducting are on Syrian
soil and a legitimate right towards liberating the land,” he said.
Moualem added that he was placing no conditions other than those providing the
basis to any ties between neighboring countries.
Report: Designated Terror Supporter Subaiy Uses Finances at
Doha Bank
New York - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Loopholes in UN Security Council sanctions procedures are allowing blacklisted
al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists and their supporters to tap their bank accounts
despite a UN asset freeze, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street
Journal and people familiar with the matter.
Those gaining access to their funds include Khalifa al-Subaiy, a Qatari
financier who the US says long provided financial support to senior al-Qaeda
leadership, including Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Subaiy was
added to the United Nations terror blacklist in 2008, but the UN has allowed him
since then to take up to $10,000 a month from frozen accounts for “basic
necessities,” according to the documents and people familiar with the matter.
Subaiy didn’t respond to requests for comment. UN records show that the Security
Council allowed blacklisted individuals to access their accounts on 71 out of 72
requests between 2008 and 2018. But that figure likely doesn’t fully capture the
number of times blacklisted individuals have used their bank accounts: The
Security Council has designated more than 250 individuals as al-Qaeda or ISIS
members or supporters, suggesting many are being allowed by home countries to
tap their accounts without even seeking Security Council permission. Members and
supporters of terrorist groups who are blacklisted by the UN aren’t supposed to
have access to any form of finance, in large part to ensure they aren’t
supporting or organizing additional attacks.
But to allow them to pay for basic living expenses, their home countries are
supposed to apply for UN exemptions that give these individuals access to small
amounts of money based on an itemized budget request to pay for food, rent and
other necessities, said the report.
A significant problem in curtailing access to frozen funds is that a home
country’s request can only be rejected through a unanimous vote by all 15
members of the Security Council. “It’s very difficult to get agreement on
anything at the Security Council,” one of the people said.
The problems with the exemptions procedures is also present in other UN
sanctions programs, say those officials, who are now pushing for an overhaul of
the rules. Security Council action on access to frozen funds is confidential,
with neither the identity of the designated individual nor the amount of money
publicly disclosed. However, the case of Subaiy, a former Qatar central-bank
official whom the UN publicly alleges continued to finance terrorist activities
at least through 2013, emerged through a series of disclosures. An account for
Subaiy appeared among records in a leaked database from the country’s main bank,
Qatar National Bank, according to an analysis of the database reviewed by the
Journal. The bank has acknowledged its systems were breached by unknown hackers
in 2016. Asked why a designated terror supporter would have an active account,
both the bank and a spokesman at Qatar’s Embassy in Washington declined to
comment on Subaiy’s case, citing confidentiality. But Qatari officials in Doha
said his finances are UN-approved and that none of his multiple bank accounts
were active after being frozen in 2008.
Refugees Constitute 41% of Palestinian Population: Report
Ramallah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
The population of refugees reached about 41 percent of total Palestinians
residing in the State of Palestine at the end of 2018, revealed a report by the
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) published on Thursday. The total
of persons aged less than 15 years reached 39 percent (refugees and
non-refugees) at the end of 2018, while that of elderly people aged 60 years and
above (refugees and non-refugees) was about 5 percent. UNRWA records indicated
that the number of registered Palestinian refugees in 2018 amounted to about 6
million. PCBS said Palestinian refugees in the West Bank who are registered with
UNRWA as in 2018 accounted up to 17 percent of the total refugees registered
with UNRWA against 25 percent in Gaza Strip. In neighboring Arab countries, the
percentage of Palestinian refugees registered with UNRWA reached about 39 of the
total Palestinian refugees in Jordan, 9 in Lebanon, and 11 in Syria. It said the
poverty rate among the refugees was about 39% during 2017 according to monthly
consumption patterns. This means that the monthly consumption of their
households is below the poverty line which is NIS2,470 for a Palestinian
household of 5 (2 adults and 3 children) while the percentage among the
non-refugees was 22.The poverty percentage among refugees was 15.7 in the West
Bank and 54.1 in the Gaza Strip. Data indicated a clear difference in the level
of the unemployment rate among refugees and non-refugees, with the former
reaching about 40% and the latter 24%. This is due to high unemployment rates in
the Gaza Strip, where the unemployment rate among refugees in the West Bank is
19% compared to about 54% among refugees in Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, PCBS said the
results of the Labor Force Survey in 2018 showed that the labor force
participation for individuals aged 15 years and above among refugees was about
47 percent compared to about 46 percent for non-refugees.
Mitsubishi Motors Shareholders Approve Ghosn’s Ouster
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. shareholders approved on Friday the ouster of Carlos
Ghosn, who was pivotal in the Japanese automaker's three-way partnership with
Nissan and Renault until he was arrested on financial misconduct charges last
year. The vote took place in a 2-hour general meeting of shareholders at a Tokyo
hotel, with approval shown in clapping from some 500 shareholders present,
although some votes were submitted in advance. Nissan Motor Co. owns 34 percent
of Mitsubishi Motors. Osamu Masuko, who was reappointed chairman, promised to
strengthen governance and transparency and monitor wrongdoing. More outsiders
will check executive appointments and compensation, he said. Nissan shareholders
held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting in April to oust Ghosn as chairman.
They also approved the appointment of French alliance partner Renault SA's
Chairman Jean-Dominique Senard to replace Ghosn. Renault owns 43 percent of
Nissan. Nissan, based in the port city of Yokohama, is holding a general
shareholders' meeting next week to approve other measures, including setting up
committees to strengthen governance. Nissan said late Thursday two Renault
executives will be on the committees. Renault had earlier said it will abstain
in that vote, and the greater representation promised on the committees may gain
Renault's approval.
Hundreds of Jordanian Islamists protest against Trump peace
plan
NNA/Fri 21 Jun 2019
Hundreds of Jordanian Islamists marched in the capital on Friday to denounce
Washington's peace plan to end the Arab-Israeli conflict and demand their
government boycott a conference in Bahrain next week that will examine the
project.
Emerging from the main Husseini mosque in downtown Amman after Friday prayers,
the protesters, among them leaders of the mainstream Islamist movement that
organized the march, chanted "O Trump, O Trump, go away from us. Jordan is
steadfast and we will never kneel."
U.S. President Donald Trump’s long-promised "Deal of the Century" peace plan has
hit a political nerve in Jordan, where millions of citizens of Palestinian
refugee origin live alongside native Jordanians.—REUTERS
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 21-22/2019
JNS: “CAIR’s Philadelphia Branch is Among
the Islamist Organization’s Most Abhorrent”
Raymond Ibrahim/June 21/2019
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2019/06/21/jns-cairs-philadelphia-branch-is-among-the-islamist-organizations-most-abhorrent/
Note: CAIR’s Philadelphia branch is also the one that the US Army War College
capitulated to. The following JNS article by Sean Savage is especially useful in
that it summarizes some of CAIR’s more troubling ties with extremism, terrorism,
and hate for Israel.
(June 19, 2019 / JNS) The U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pa., is coming
under fire over accusations that it postponed a planned June 19 speech by author
and columnist Raymond Ibrahim, who regularly speaks out against radical Islam,
after a campaign waged by Muslim groups that accused him of being a “white
nationalist” and an “Islamophobe.”
The campaign was led by the Philadelphia chapter of the Council on
American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), who sent a letter to Army Maj. Gen. John S.
Kem, and provost James G. Breckenridge stating: “We also do not believe that
there is any benefit to the U.S. in promulgating the inaccurate thesis that
Islam is our enemy, as this stereotype only alienates millions of
Muslim-Americans.”
MPower Change, a group led by Linda Sarsour, a prominent anti-Israel activist,
also endorsed the CAIR campaign, stating in a petition on its website that: “In
a time of rising white nationalism, Islamophobia, and horrific violence stemming
from these ideologies, the College is endorsing and fostering anti-Muslim hate
within the military by inviting Ibrahim.”
Ibrahim, who is an Arab-American and a Coptic Christian, had planned to provide
a lecture at the U.S. Army War College based on his latest book Sword and
Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War Between Islam and the West.
Nevertheless, Ibrahim said that CAIR did not provide any documentation for the
accusations against his book.
“The history I present in Sword and Scimitar is ironclad, verifiable and beyond
well-documented, with about a thousand end notes, it is heavily based on primary
sources, many of which are Muslim, and from eyewitnesses,” Ibrahim said,
reported The Washington Times.
In a statement provided to Penn Live, U.S. Army War College spokeswoman Carol
Kerr said the lecture had been “postponed,” so that the department “can pair Mr.
Ibrahim’s military history insights in close proximity with another historical
perspective at a time when the USAWC curriculum has addressed historical
analysis of influences on conflict.”
The U.S. Army War College did not respond to a request from JNS for a statement.
“For the USAWC suddenly to postpone a long-planned event only nine days before
schedule—and just a handful of days after CAIR’s smear campaign—is not a
“coincidence”; it is a clear message for all,” Ibrahim said in a post on his
website.
Sam Westrop, director of Islamist Watch for the Middle East Forum, where Ibrahim
also serves as a fellow, told JNS that CAIR targeted Ibrahim due his outspoken
criticism of radical Islamist groups.
“CAIR opposes Raymond Ibrahim because Mr. Ibrahim is an expert on the radical,
Islamist ideas that CAIR engenders,” he said. “CAIR has not launched this
campaign against Mr. Ibrahim in the name of moderation, but for the sake of
preserving its own extremism.”
An ‘inappropriate partner’
CAIR has long come under scrutiny for its anti-Israel activity and suspected
ties to extremist groups.
According to the Anti-Defamation League, CAIR has “a long record of anti-Israel
activity. Its leadership has accused Israel of being a racist state engaged in
genocide and Israel supporters in the U.S. of promoting ‘a culture of hostility
towards Islam.’ Its chapters partner with various anti-Israel groups that seek
to isolate and demonize the Jewish state.”
In 2007, federal prosecutors named CAIR an unindicted co-conspirator in a
criminal conspiracy to financially support the terrorist group Hamas as part of
the Holy Land Foundation case. In 2009, the FBI severed relations with CAIR due
to concerns of its continued ties with terrorist groups such as Hamas and
Hezbollah. At least seven CAIR board members or staff have been banned from the
United States, arrested, indicted, convicted or have pleaded guilty to terrorist
charges. The United Arab Emirates also designated CAIR as a terrorist entity in
2014.
In recent months, several CAIR branches have also been criticized for
controversial statements and actions.
In November 2018, CAIR Los Angeles director Hussam Ayloush was widely condemned
for calling for Israel’s “termination.”
In early June, several pro-Israel groups also condemned an event at the
Massachusetts State House co-hosted by CAIR-MA. Among the groups questioning the
event, the Jewish Community Relations Council of Boston said that CAIR-MA was an
“inappropriate partner” for Jewish organizations and the mainstream community.
Similarly, CAIR’s branch in Philadelphia also has questionable actions.
“CAIR’s Philadelphia branch is among the Islamist organization’s most abhorrent.
And for it to accuse others of hosting extremist speakers invites a closer look
at CAIR’s own activities,” said Westrop.
“Just a few months ago, in March, CAIR Philadelphia advertised that leading
Islamist activist Hassan Shibly was to be the speaker at its annual banquet,” he
said.
“Shibly, who runs CAIR’s Florida branch, has publicly endorsed a group named
Khatme Nubuwwat (KN), a South Asian extremist movement solely dedicated to
inciting violence, blasphemy laws and mob killings aimed at Ahmadiyyah Muslims,
a much persecuted minority Muslim sect.”
Given this history, Westrop says that it is unfortunate that the U.S. Army War
College decided to yield to pressure from CAIR.
“CAIR has a long history as a platform for hate and terror. That the FBI
blacklisted it in 2008 in the wake of a terror finance trial and that the United
Arab Emirates, a key U.S. ally, has designated it as a terrorist group should be
cause enough for the U.S. Army not submit to this Islamist group’s demands.”
So Far, Iran's Policy Of Terror Attacks Is Successful
تقرير من موقع ميمري: في ما يخص الأزمة الحالية بين ترامب والملالي وحتى الآن فإن
سياسة إيران الإرهابية بتعدياتها هي الرابحة
MEMRI/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76005/%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%a7-%d9%8a%d8%ae%d8%b5-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b2%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84/
In recent weeks, Saudi and UAE targets, and most recently American targets, have
been attacked by Iran and its proxies in the resistance front (see below).
During this time, the U.S. has taken conciliatory measures vis-à-vis Iran:
delaying the entrance into the Persian Gulf of the aircraft carriers it had
dispatched to the region, delaying the implementation of the sanctions on Iran's
petrochemical industry, and the June 2, 2019 announcement by Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo that the U.S. was willing to negotiate with Iran without the
preconditions that he had previously released.
These conciliatory U.S. measures have been presented by Iran as shows of
weakness. For example, the delay in dispatching the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft
carrier to the Persian Gulf was described by Iranian President Hassan Rohani as
follows: "The same enemy who up to a year ago declared 'my aim is to destroy the
regime of the Islamic Republic [of Iran]' announced clearly today that it does
not want to do a thing against the [Iranian] regime. The same enemy who up to a
few months ago stated that it is the greatest military power in the world, and
that if it wanted it could break Iran's armed forces, announced today that it
has no intention of fighting. Up to a few months ago, the Persian Gulf was a
place where its aircraft carriers sailed freely, but today nothing is heard from
its navy, and it has anchored in international waters, 300 and 400 miles [from
the Persian Gulf]."[1]
On June 2, 2019, Gen. Yahya Safavi, advisor and aide to Iranian Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei and former commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC),
said: "America is only boasting politically and militarily, and in fact two
weeks ago it began to retreat. We are ready for war. Today we are the superpower
in the Middle East."[2]
Even after U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton's announcement, on May 5,
2019, that "[a]ny attack on United States interests or on those of our allies
will be met with unrelenting force" and that "[t]he United States is not seeking
war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack,
whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian
forces,"[3] Iran has continued to carry out attacks in the region against the
U.S. and its allies.
The following are Iran's main operations against the U.S.'s and its allies'
forces in the region:
May 12, 2019: Iran attacked four oil tankers at Fujairah port in the Gulf of
Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz.
May 14, 2019: The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen used drones to strike
strategic oil pipelines at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia.
May 19, 2019: A rocket landed near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone.
May 20, 2019: Two Houthi missiles aimed at Mecca were intercepted above Jeddah
and Taif in Saudi Arabia.[4]
May 31, 2019: Four American service members were wounded by a car bomb in
Afghanistan; four Afghan civilians were killed and others were wounded.
June 5, 2019: Houthi spokesman Yahya Saria announced that 20 Saudi outposts on
the Saudi-Yemen border had been attacked and taken over.[5]
June 9, 2019: The Houthis announced that they had attacked Najran airport in
Saudi Arabia using drones.
June 12, 2019: The Houthis announced that they had attacked Abha civilian
airport in Saudi Arabia, 200 km from the Saudi-Yemen border, with a cruise
missile, wounding 26.
June 13, 2019; Iran attacked a Japanese and a Norwegian oil tanker in the Gulf
of Oman, during a Tehran visit by Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo.
June 15, 2019: Mortar bombs were fired at Balad Airbase in northern Baghdad,
where U.S. troops are stationed; Katyusha rockets were fired at the Al-Jadriya
neighborhood in central Baghdad, near the U.S. Embassy; a missile was fired at
another base near Baghdad's international airport.[6]
June 17 and 19, 2019: Saudi Arabia announced that it had intercepted Houthi
drones en route to it.[7]
June 18, 2019: Two mortar bombs were fired at Al-Taji base in northern Baghdad,
where U.S. troops are stationed.[8]
June 19, 2019: A Katyusha rocket was fired at the Presidential Palace complex in
Mosul, northern Iraq; U.S. military advisors are stationed in the complex.[9]
June 19, 2019: A Katyusha rocket was fired at the complexes of the ExxonMobil,
Shell, and Eni SpA oil companies in Basra, southern Iraq.[10]
June 19, 2019: The Houthis fired a cruise missile at the water desalination
facility in Al-Shaqiq in the southern Saudi province of Jazan.[11]
Despite all this, U.S. President Trump is maintaining his policy of not
responding to Iranian aggression, while publicly accusing Iran of carrying out
attacks and reiterating that he "does not want war" with Iran.[12]
The Iranian interpretation of the U.S. moves as weakness has led Iran to
escalate its provocations of the Americans, to the point of shooting down a U.S.
MC-4Q Triton drone above the Persian Gulf today. Although it was brought down
over international waters, Gen. Hossein Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said that it had been downed because it had
crossed into Iranian airspace, and called the interception "a message" to the
U.S. He said: "The guardians of Iran's borders will respond forcefully to any
foreign attack on this soil. The borders are our red line. Any enemy who attacks
these borders will not return [home]. We hereby declare: We have no war with any
state, but we are ready for war, and today's incident was a clear message. The
enemies must... respect the sovereignty, the national security, and the
interests of the Iranian people."[13]
IRGC commander Salami (Source: Tasnimnews.com, June 20, 2019)
In Iran's assessment, President Trump will not dare to act against it since war
with Iran will ensure that he will not be reelected. Therefore, it can use force
without fear, because Trump has no option but to submit to its demands.
[1] President.ir/fa, June 1, 2019.
[2] Farsnews.com, June 2, 2019.
[3] Whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-national-security-advisor-ambassador-john-bolton-2,
May 5, 2019.
[4] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), May 21, 2019.
[5] Almasirah.net, June 5, 2019.
[6] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), June 15, 2019.
[7] 'Okaz (Saudi Arabia), June 18, 2019; Al-Jazirah (Saudi Arabia), June 20,
2019.
[8] Farsnews.com, June 18, 2019.
[9] Farsnews.com, June 19, 2019.
[10] Farsnews.com, June 19, 2019.
[11] Alriyadh.com, June 20, 2019.
[12] Thehill.com/policy/defense/449109-pompeo-at-centcom-trump-does-not-want-war,
June 18, 2019.
[13] Tasnim (Iran), June 20, 2019.
Analysis/Trump’s Bahrain Conference – Not What You Imagined
عاموس هايل/هآرتس: مؤتمر ترامب في البحرين ليس كما كنت تتخيل
Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76013/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%83%d8%b3%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b4%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%b3-%d8%a3%d9%8a-%d9%86%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%82%d9%87-%d9%85/
The Palestinians are boycotting and the Israeli elections got in the way. But
one former U.S. diplomat sees some light at the end of the tunnel.
The Bahrain conference – not what you thought. Not much joy will come from this
wedding, to which the Palestinian bride is absolutely refusing to come, the
Israeli groom is sending low-ranking representatives and the guests are being
asked to maintain as low a profile as possible. The way things are looking now,
less than a week before the convening of the economic conference initiated by
the Trump administration, it will be hosting mainly business people and the
number of senior people in attendance will be very small.
The Palestinian Authority’s holding action against the conference has been only
partially successful; Jordan and Egypt have knuckled under to pressure from the
United States and Saudi Arabia and have announced that they will participate. At
the moment the official Palestinian boycott is total. There is no information
about business people from the territories who have dared to defy the PA and
intend to participate, and apparently rightly as far as they are concerned: They
are refusing to enter into a move that is only about economic benefits when
discussion of the diplomatic ramifications of the American initiative has been
postponed to some undefined date in the future. Since the people of Trump’s
negotiating team are coming from the New York real estate world, perhaps it’s
necessary to hark back to an example from the distant history of Manhattan: It
isn’t possible to ensure diplomatic progress in the region if all that they’re
selling in Bahrain is beads to the natives.
To some extent the administration is losing the wind in its sails in the wake of
Netanyahu’s decision to call a new election for the Knesset in September. Had
there been any chance of advancing the diplomatic side of the “deal of the
century,” it has been put in the deep freeze until the political situation in
Israel becomes clear, towards the end of the year. At the same time, there’s
some suspicion that the Americans have taken advantage of the crisis in Israel
for their own needs. Postponing the timetable enables them to continue to
conceal the details of their plan, which, going by everything that has leaked
about it thus far, looks unripe. Since 2020 is an election year in the United
States, it is possible that the deal of the century will not see the light of
day. As in the farce of the town of “Trump Heights,” which was purportedly
dedicated this week in the Golan Heights in an official ceremony that would not
have shamed a skit by Ephraim Kishon, here too a huge gap yawns between the
vision and the reality.
Still on the agenda are the economic promises of a better future for the
Palestinians and their neighbors, and to these too it is necessary to relate
cautiously. In his early days as president, Trump created a lot of noise in a
visit to Saudi Arabia, in which promises of billions of dollars in arms deals
were released into the air. To date, only a small part of them has been
realized. The Palestinians, too, have already experienced conferences of donor
nations, in which there was no connection between the numbers thrown around and
the funds that ultimately landed on the ground.
Dennis Ross, formerly one of the top people on the Hillary Clinton and Obama
peace teams, nevertheless tried this week to find light at the end of the
tunnel. Ross, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote that
the main aim of the Bahrain conference should be the encouragement of stability
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in the context of the cut in salaries in
the Palestinian Authority and the confrontations along the border fence
initiated by Hamas in Gaza. Economic plans proffered in Bahrain could help with
this, argued Ross, if only the Palestinian right to a state is somehow
presented. Ross is right, but the trouble is that for now the administration is
wary of this as though it were some terrible taboo, while the Trump people are
scattering hints about their support for annexation of Areas C in the West Bank
to Israel.
The Palestinian Authority has planned to cast a shadow on the conference by
means of demonstrations and disturbances in the territories while it is underway
in Bahrain. The IDF will beef up its forces in the West Bank to some extent in
light of the possibility of violence. In the Gaza Strip, however, a certain calm
was evident this week, with the arrival of the monthly shipment of cash from
Qatar. In the coming weeks a number of important projects are slated for
launching in the areas of electricity, water and sewage in Gaza.
However, the frequent outbreaks of violence testify that the situation is far
from stable. Hamas frequently accuses Israel of violating the prior agreements.
Either there is an expectations gap developing here between the sides or the
agreements the Egyptian mediators reached were simply never fully sewn up. In
any case, it appears that the Gaza Strip is liable to keep seething over time,
as the escalation in the Gulf could prompt Iran to try to spur Islamic Jihad to
escalate the situation in Gaza as well.
Analysis/Iran, U.S. Are on the Warpath Again. This Time, Israel Has Little Say
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: مرة أخرى إسرائيل وأميركا معاً على مسار الحرب ولكن هذه المرة
لدى أسرائيل القليل لتقوله
Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76015/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%85%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d8%ae%d8%b1%d9%89-%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a3%d9%85/
For many Israeli ministers and generals, recent events echo the tense summers a
decade ago. But there one major difference.
For government ministers and generals, graduates all of the tense summers of
2009-2013, the way things are developing this summer is beginning to elicit
memories of things past, and not in a good way. Back then, in the days of
Netanyahu’s second and third governments, the drama was consistently built up in
the spring around the possibility that Israel would attack the nuclear sites in
Iran. By the summer months the air was already thick with tension. And in the
fall, once what the experts from abroad described as the window of opportunity
for the air force had closed, the danger faded away as if of its own accord. The
following year, as spring came, the song began all over again – until America
got fed up. The two agreements they reached with the Iranians, the interim
agreement in 2013 and the nuclear agreement in 2015, buried the Israeli attack
plan.
In retrospect, it’s quite clear what has happened here. The fear of an
uncoordinated Israeli attack on Iran spurred President Barack Obama’s
administration to apply crushing sanctions, which brought the Iranian economy to
its knees and ultimately enabled the signing of the full agreement. In the
agreement, despite its flaws, Israeli intelligence identified a major
opportunity to distance the nuclear threat for at least a decade. Netanyahu
thought differently, and took advantage of Donald Trump’s victory in the
presidential election to push for America’s withdrawal from the agreement in May
of last year.
What we’ve been seeing in the Persian Gulf during the past two months is a
direct continuation of that same plot. The Trump administration, with
encouragement from Israel (a bit more quietly of late), is renewing and even
exacerbating the sanctions. Iran is getting pushed into a corner and now, in the
shadow of the crisis that is liable to destroy its economy again, it is trying
to reshuffle the cards. This is the backdrop to the recent series of attacks on
oil tankers and sites in the Gulf, which intelligence organizations in the West
and in Israel are attributing with a high degree of certainty to Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards.
Iran is also taking defensive steps. On Thursday before dawn it shot down a
giant, $130-million American unmanned aerial vehicle, which it says was
gathering intelligence over its territory. (The Americans say it had not entered
Iranian airspace.) At the same time, Iran is warning that it is about to violate
the nuclear agreement in the near future, as it approaches the permitted
threshold of accumulation of uranium at a low level of enrichment. On Thursday,
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against “catastrophic consequences” if
Washington responds with force against Iran. The results of escalation can’t be
predicted.
The difference between this summer and the summer seasons of the beginning of
the decade is that this time things do not really depend on Israel. The United
States, by means of its withdrawal from the agreement, the presentation of
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12-point plan against Iran, and the imposition
of sanctions on companies from third countries that trade with it has created a
new regional reality. It’s doubtful that Trump himself wants a war with Iran. At
the beginning of this week he described the attacks on the tankers as “very
minor,” then on Thursday he delivered, as is his wont, a series of
contradictory, confusing responses to the drone incident. However, the dynamic
of escalation does not necessarily depend on what the sides want. And there are
elements in the administration, first and foremost National Security Adviser
John Bolton, who have in the past advocated regime change by force.
On the backdrop of all this, the Pentagon’s weakness is evident. The last
defense secretary, James Mattis, resigned last December because of continuing
disagreements with the president that reached their peak in Trump’s intention
(which hasn’t been fully implemented) to withdraw the remaining American troops
from Syria. This week his acting replacement had to resign because of the
revelation of an old affair of violence in his family.
It isn’t the generals who dictate policy in Washington. The problem is that it
isn’t clear who actually does dictate it and whether that person knows what he
wants to achieve. Thus far, the Iranian attacks have been aimed at the oil
industry in the Gulf. The government of Israel is aware of the possibility that
Tehran will initiate a provocation on one of the borders in the north, with the
aim of dragging Israel into the crisis and forcing the Americans to act. Such a
development is not a certainty, but rather a possibility perceived as realistic
and one that necessitates Israeli alertness. Israeli-Iranian friction in the
north is nothing new. It has been going on indirectly for years, by means of
Hezbollah and in the past two years it has been exacerbated in the wake of
Israeli bombardments of Iranian bases and Shi’ite militias in Syria.
According to the intelligence analyses, Iran is not looking for a war with the
United States, which it knows it would lose. However, continuation of the
existing situation is intolerable from its perspective. The attacks, for which
it has not taken responsibility (on the contrary, Tehran denies any connection
to them) were aimed at enabling a way out of the existing situation. The
immediate Iranian concern has to do with oil. The exacerbation of the sanctions
have impeded a large part of the Iranian oil trade. The Americans also took
other measures that interfere with Iran transferring oil in the context of
barter commerce, for example to the Houthi rebels they operate in Yemen.
Tehran has warned in the past of its ability to damage the oil tanker routes.
The series of attacks in the Gulf was aimed at signaling that if Iran is unable
to profit from its oil, the other large producers in the region (most of them
Washington’s allies) will not be able to do so either. At the same time, the
attacks are intended to influence oil prices, because of the uncertainty and
because of the need for higher insurance premiums. In the meantime, this hasn’t
happened. The latest attack on tankers, a week ago, was partially documented by
the Americans. The crew of a Revolutionary Guard boat was filmed removing an
unexploded mine from one of the tankers, in what appears to have been an attempt
to conceal evidence. The incident occurred precisely as Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe was visiting Tehran in an attempt to cool down tempers in the Gulf.
At the moment it appears that his mission has failed.
Foreign Policy magazine commented this week that this isn’t the first time the
Iranians have responded with intentional escalation aimed at repelling external
pressure they see as intolerable. This happened in the past in the “tanker war”
with the Americans in the Gulf at the end of the 1980s and also when Iran chose
to help the Shi’ite militias that were fighting the American occupation in Iraq
after the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. In light of the economic
pressure, Iran is applying counter-pressure, in the hope of easing the economic
blockade – and perhaps gain an advantage when negotiations resume. The frequent
incidents hint at the amount of damage Iran is able to cause, exposes American
sensitivity surrounding the oil industry and poses a question about Trump’s
willingness to continue with the tough line towards Iran.
Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back
تقرير من نيويورك تايمز: ترامب وافق على ضرب إيران ومن ثم فجأة تراجع
Michael D. Shear, Eric Schmitt, Michael Crowley and Maggie Haberman/The New York
Times/June 20, 2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76002/%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%83-%d8%aa%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a8-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%82-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b6/
WASHINGTON — President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in
retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from
launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.
As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike,
after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s
top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple
senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.
Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of
Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.
The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior
administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position,
but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.
[For Mr. Trump, “judgment time is coming” on how to respond to Iran.]
The abrupt reversal put a halt to what would have been the president’s third
military action against targets in the Middle East. Mr. Trump had struck twice
at targets in Syria, in 2017 and 2018.
It was not clear whether Mr. Trump simply changed his mind on the strikes or
whether the administration altered course because of logistics or strategy. It
was also not clear whether the attacks might still go forward.
Asked about the plans for a strike and the decision to hold back, the White
House declined to comment, as did Pentagon officials. No government officials
asked The New York Times to withhold the article.
The retaliation plan was intended as a response to the shooting down of the
unmanned, $130 million surveillance drone, which was struck Thursday morning by
an Iranian surface-to-air missile, according to a senior administration official
who was briefed on the military planning and spoke on the condition of anonymity
to discuss confidential plans.
The strike was set to take place just before dawn Friday in Iran to minimize
risk to the Iranian military and civilians.
But military officials received word a short time later that the strike was off,
at least temporarily.
The possibility of a retaliatory strike hung over Washington for much of the
day. Officials in both countries traded accusations about the location of the
drone when it was destroyed by a surface-to-air missile launched from the
Iranian coast along the Gulf of Oman.
Mr. Trump’s national security advisers split about whether to respond
militarily. Senior administration officials said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo;
John R. Bolton, the national security adviser; and Gina Haspel, the C.I.A.
director, had favored a military response. But top Pentagon officials cautioned
that such an action could result in a spiraling escalation with risks for
American forces in the region.
Congressional leaders were briefed by administration officials in the Situation
Room.
The destruction of the drone underscored the already tense relations between the
two countries after Mr. Trump’s recent accusations that Iran is to blame for
explosions last week that damaged oil tankers traveling through the strait, the
vital waterway for much of the world’s oil. Iran has denied that accusation.
Iran’s announcement this week that it would soon breach one of the key limits it
had agreed to in a 2015 pact intended to limit its nuclear program has also
fueled tensions. Mr. Trump, who pulled the United States out of the 2015 pact,
has vowed that he will not allow Tehran to build a nuclear weapon.
On Thursday, Mr. Trump insisted that the United States’ unmanned surveillance
aircraft was flying over international waters when it was taken down by an
Iranian missile.
“This drone was in international waters, clearly,” the president told reporters
on Thursday afternoon at the White House as he began a meeting with Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada. “We have it all documented. It’s documented
scientifically, not just words.”
Asked what would come next, Mr. Trump said, “Let’s see what happens.”
Iran’s government fiercely disputed the president’s characterization, insisting
that the American drone had strayed into Iranian airspace. Iran released GPS
coordinates that put the drone eight miles off the country’s coast, inside the
12 nautical miles from the shore that Iran claims as its territorial waters.
Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, wrote in a letter
to the Security Council that the drone ignored repeated radio warnings before it
was downed. He said that Tehran “does not seek war” but “is determined to
vigorously defend its land, sea and air.”
Congressional Democrats emerged from the president’s classified briefing in the
Situation Room and urged Mr. Trump to de-escalate the situation. They called on
the president to seek congressional authorization before taking any military
action.
“This is a dangerous situation,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said. “We are dealing with
a country that is a bad actor in the region. We have no illusions about Iran in
terms of their ballistic missile transfers, about who they support in the region
and the rest.”
Iran’s destruction of the drone appeared to provide a boost for officials inside
the Trump administration who have long argued for a more confrontational
approach to Iran, including the possibility of military actions that could
punish the regime for its support of terrorism and other destabilizing behavior
in the region.
The U.S. Says Iran Attacked Tankers. Does the Evidence Add Up?
A Times analysis of a video and images publicly released by the U.S. Defense
Department indicates that an Iranian patrol boat removed an object from a tanker
in the Gulf of Oman on June 13 that may have been a limpet mine.CreditCreditU.S.
Dept. of Defense
But in his public appearance, Mr. Trump initially seemed to be looking for a way
to avoid a potentially serious military crisis. Instead of directly accusing the
leaders of Iran, Mr. Trump said someone “loose and stupid” in Iran was
responsible for shooting down the drone.
The president said he suspected it was some individual in Iran who “made a big
mistake,” even as Iran had taken responsibility for the strike and asserted that
the high-altitude American drone was operating over Iranian air space, which
American officials denied.
Mr. Trump said the episode would have been far more serious if the aircraft had
been a piloted vehicle, and not a drone. It made “a big, big difference” that an
American pilot was not threatened, he told reporters.
Last year, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 nuclear pact with
Iran, over the objections of China, Russia and American allies in Europe. He has
also imposed punishing economic sanctions on Iran, trying to cut off its already
limited access to international trade, including oil sales.
Iran has warned of serious consequences if Europe does not find a way around
those sanctions, though it has denied involvement in the attacks on tankers near
the vital Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Iran said it would soon stop abiding by a
central component of the nuclear deal, the limit on how much enriched uranium it
is allowed to stockpile.
Both Washington and Tehran said the downing of the drone occurred at 4:05 a.m.
Thursday in Iran, or 7:35 p.m. Wednesday in Washington. The drone “was shot down
by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in international
airspace over the Strait of Hormuz,” the United States Central Command said in a
statement. “This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in
international airspace.”
Iran’s ability to target and destroy the high-altitude American drone, which was
developed to evade the very surface-to-air missiles used to bring it down,
surprised some Defense Department officials, who interpreted it as a show of how
difficult Tehran can make things for the United States as it deploys more troops
and steps up surveillance in the region.
Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, the Air Force commander for the Central Command
region in the Middle East, said the attack could have endangered “innocent
civilians,” even though officials at Central Command continued to assert that
the drone was over international waters. He said that the closest that the drone
got to the Iranian coast was 21 miles.
Late Thursday, the Defense Department released additional imagery in an email to
support its case that the drone never entered Iranian airspace. But the
department incorrectly called the flight path of the drone the location of the
shooting down and offered little context for an image that appeared to be the
drone exploding in midair.
It was the latest attempt by the Pentagon to try to prove that Iran has been the
aggressor in a series of international incidents.
[What we know and don’t know about Iran shooting down an American drone.]
Iran’s foreign affairs minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said in a post on Twitter
that he gave what he said were precise coordinates for where the American drone
was targeted.
“At 00:14 US drone took off from UAE in stealth mode & violated Iranian
airspace,” he said in a tweet that included coordinates that he said were near
Kouh-e Mobarak. “We’ve retrieved sections of the US military drone in OUR
territorial waters where it was shot down.”
Mr. Trump’s comments on Thursday afternoon in the Oval Office reflected the
longstanding tension between the president’s desire to be seen as tough on the
world stage and his campaign promise to make sure that the United States did not
get tangled in more foreign wars.
The president has embraced a reputation as someone who punches back when he is
challenged. Only months into his tenure, Mr. Trump launched 59 Tomahawk cruise
missiles at an air base in Syria after a chemical weapon attack.
But he has often talked about ending American involvement in long-running
conflicts abroad, describing his “America First” agenda as having little room
for being the world’s police force. In a tweet in January, he said he hoped that
“Endless Wars, especially those which are fought out of judgement mistakes”
would “eventually come to a glorious end!”
According to Iranian news media, a foreign minister spokesman there said that
flying a drone into Iranian airspace was an “aggressive and provocative” move by
the United States.
Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps, said crossing the country’s border was “our red line,” the semiofficial
Mehr news agency reported.
“We are not going to get engaged in a war with any country, but we are fully
prepared for war,” Mr. Salami said at a military ceremony in Sanandaj, Iran,
according to a translation from Press TV, a state-run news outlet. “Today’s
incident was a clear sign of this precise message, so we are continuing our
resistance.”
Iranian news media said the drone had flown over Iranian territory unauthorized,
and reported that it had been shot down in the Hormozgan Province, along the
country’s southern coast on the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Both the United States and Iran identified the aircraft as an RQ-4 Global Hawk,
a surveillance drone made by Northrop Grumman.
“This was a show of force — their equivalent of an inside pitch,” said Derek
Chollet, a former assistant secretary of defense for international security
affairs during the Obama administration, speaking of Iran’s decision to shoot
down the drone.
James G. Stavridis, who retired as a four-star admiral after serving as the
supreme allied commander at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, warned that
the two countries were in a dangerous game that could quickly spiral out of
control. He described Iran’s downing of the drone, which costs about $130
million, as a “logical albeit highly dangerous escalatory move by Iran.”
*Michael D. Shear and Michael Crowley reported from Washington; Eric Schmitt
from Palo Alto, Calif.; and Maggie Haberman from New York. Reporting was
contributed by Helene Cooper, Eileen Sullivan and Emily Cochrane from
Washington; David D. Kirkpatrick, Megan Specia and Michael Wolgelenter from
London; and Daniel Victor from Hong Kong.
A version of this article appears in print on June 21, 2019, on Page A1 of the
New York edition with the headline: Downing Drone Was ‘Big Mistake’ By Iran,
U.S. Says.
Palestinian 'Moderates:' Rifles, Hand Grenades and Terrorism
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/June 21, 2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14410/palestinian-moderates-terrorism
How does Abbas explain his opposition to the use of weapons and terrorism
against Israel while his own faction displays rifles and a hand grenade and a
map where Israel is completely ignored?
Fatah is, in other words, calling for a new Intifada [uprising] against Israel
because the US is seeking ways to help the Palestinians. This is nothing less
than loony.
In several interviews over the past few years, Zakariya Zubeidi made it clear
that he never had any intention of renouncing terrorism. In one interview, he
said that the Palestinian "resistance" could coexist alongside negotiating with
Israel.... Recently, Zubeidi told an Israeli TV correspondent that he "misses
the intifada and the revolution."
By its very own words and actions, Fatah makes it plainly clear that it is
anything but moderate and pragmatic. This is the same faction that is supposed
to be Israel's peace partner and whose leaders are welcomed around the world as
advocates of peace and coexistence. If this is moderation, one wonders: how do
Palestinians define extremism? The international community might check Fatah's
communications in Arabic before answering that question for themselves.
Earlier this year, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' ruling Fatah
faction expressed outrage because Israel arrested Zakariya Zubeidi, one of its
senior terrorists, for carrying out shooting attacks against Israelis between
2016 and 2019. Zubeidi was a leader of Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades
terrorist group during the Second Intifada (2000-2005). In 2007, Zubeidi was
pardoned by Israel as part of a deal signed with the PA, in which he and other
terrorists signed a pledge to refrain from terror activities. Pictured: Zubeidi
(third from left) on December 30, 2004 in Jenin.
The Palestinian ruling Fatah faction, headed by Palestinian Authority President
and PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas, is often described as a "moderate" and "pragmatic"
group. There are many reasons and sufficient evidence to believe, however, that
this assumption is unrealistic, if not totally false.
Before examining the rhetoric and actions of Fatah, one might do well to
consider the group's emblem, which depicts two fists holding rifles, and a hand
grenade in the middle. In the background is a map of Israel (with no mention of
Israel); the emblem is accompanied by a caption reading: "Revolution until
victory."
Why any group that proudly uses rifles and a hand grenade as its symbol is
described as "moderate" and "pragmatic" remains a mystery. Could it be because
it is an anti-Israel group that calls itself the Palestinian National Liberation
Movement and was established with the declared goal of "liberating Palestine" --
specifically meaning, destroying Israel?
The rifles and hand grenade are a blunt sign of Fatah's true message to the
Palestinians -- that the armed struggle against Israel should continue until the
"liberation of Palestine," just as its name suggests.
Why does Fatah continue to use rifles and a hand grenade after its leaders
signed the Oslo Accord with Israel in 1993 and Abbas continues to claim that he
supports a two-state solution?
How does Abbas explain his opposition to the use of weapons and terrorism
against Israel while his own faction displays rifles and a hand grenade and a
map where Israel is completely ignored?
Fatah is now spearheading the Palestinian campaign to thwart US President Donald
Trump's yet-to-be-announced plan for peace in the Middle East, also known as the
"Deal of the Century."
Fatah leaders, who admit they know nothing about the upcoming peace plan, have
been devoting most of their time and energy to inciting Palestinians against
Trump's plan and the US-led economic conference scheduled to take place next
week in Bahrain. At the conference, the US administration is expected to unveil
the economic portion of the Deal of the Century. Abbas and his Fatah officials,
however, are already doing their utmost to foil the conference, including
threatening Palestinian business leaders that anyone who attends the economic
"workshop" will be accused of treason.
As part of their effort to derail the Trump plan, Fatah leaders have called for
mass protests in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on June 25 and 26 -- when the
Bahrain conference is scheduled to take place.
Jamal Muheissen, a senior Fatah official, said that the two days will be marked
as "days of rage" by Palestinians to voice their rejection of both the Deal of
the Century and the Bahrain conference. He urged Palestinians to rally behind
Abbas and the Fatah leadership and express their support for efforts to thwart
the unseen peace plan.
A Fatah poster calling for mass protests against the Bahrain "workshop" features
a masked Palestinians throwing a rock (at Israelis).
The message Fatah is sending to its people is: Go out and throw stones at
Israelis during the Bahrain conference, whose chief goal is to discuss ways of
boosting the Palestinian economy and improving living conditions in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip. Fatah is, in other words, calling for a new Intifada
[uprising] against Israel because the US is seeking ways to help the
Palestinians. This is nothing less than loony.
Further evidence of Fatah's alleged "moderation" and "pragmatism" emerged last
week, when the ruling faction expelled from its ranks a Palestinian mayor for
hosting Jewish settlers at his son's wedding.
Pictures of settlers attending the wedding in the West Bank town of Deir Qaddis
have enraged Fatah leaders, who said they formed a commission of inquiry to
investigate the mayor and his family. The mayor, Radi Nasser, has also lost his
job with the Palestinian Ministry of Education for hosting the settlers at the
wedding. Fatah is now also demanding that the mayor be removed from his job.
The mayor has since been forced publicly to apologize to Fatah and the
Palestinians for inviting Jews to his son's wedding.
Last month, Fatah strongly condemned a Palestinian businessman from the West
Bank city of Hebron for inviting Jewish settlers to a Ramadan iftar dinner after
sundown. Fatah accused the businessman, Ashraf Jabari, of promoting
"normalization" with Israel and being part of "suspicious American-Israeli
schemes against the Palestinians."
Earlier this year, Fatah expressed outrage because Israel arrested one of its
senior terrorists in the West Bank -- Zakariya Zubeidi.
Zubeidi, former commander of Fatah's armed wing, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, was
arrested for carrying out several shooting attacks against Israelis in the West
Bank.
Zubeidi was one of the leaders of Fatah's terrorist group in the northern West
Bank during the Second Intifada (2000-2005). In 2007, he was pardoned by Israel
as part of a deal signed with the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Because of his affiliation with Fatah, Zubeidi was appointed member of the
faction's Revolutionary Council, a key decision-making body dominated by Abbas
loyalists. In addition to this position, he was also given a senior job with the
PA's Commission for Palestinian Prisoners, a group that provides financial and
legal assistance to terrorists imprisoned by Israel.
Earlier this week, Zubeidi and Tarek Bargut were indicted for carrying out
shooting attacks between 2016 and 2019. According to the charge sheet, the two
terrorists used a car issued to Zubeidi by the Palestinian Authority in his
capacity as a senior official of Fatah and the Commission for Palestinian
Prisoners.
Instead of distancing itself from Zubeidi and his accomplice for their
involvement in terrorism, Abbas's Fatah rushed to condemn Israel for arresting
the terrorist leader and his friend. This is the same Fatah whose leader, Abbas,
says he is committed to non-violence and is opposed to all forms of terrorism.
"The arrest of Zubeidi will lead to an open confrontation [with Israel]," said
Munir Jaghoub, a senior Fatah official. "The arrest shows that Israel is headed
toward an all-out escalation against the Palestinians and their leaders. Israeli
leaders would be foolish to believe that the Palestinians will remain silent
toward their practices and crimes."
Fatah's Revolutionary Council also condemned Israel for preventing Zubeidi from
pursuing his plan to murder Jews. In a statement, the council said that the
arrest of its member (Zubeidi) was an Israeli "violation of agreements and
understandings" with the Palestinian Authority.
The Fatah council claimed that Israel was preparing to bring Zubeidi to trial
for political reasons. "Israel wants to bring the Palestinian struggle to
trial," it said in its statement.
According to the logic of Fatah, it was Israel, and not the terrorist, who
"violated" the agreements and understandings signed with the Palestinian
Authority. In fact, Zubeidi is the one who violated the agreements and
understandings by continuing his terrorist activities.
As a gesture of goodwill, in 2008 Israel had informed the Palestinians of its
decision to stop pursuing dozens of Fatah terrorists in the West Bank. A senior
Palestinian official said at the time that the Israeli decision to pardon the
terrorists belonging to Fatah's armed wing, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, had
arrived after a three-month "trial period" during which they refrained from
launching attacks against Israel.
Under the terms of the "pardon," the terrorists, including Zubeidi, were
required to stay inside Palestinian security installations after surrendering
their weapons and signing a pledge to refrain from terror activities.
Zubeidi's decision to continue his terror activities against Israel did not come
as a surprise to Palestinians. The man who grew up in the Jenin refugee camp in
the northern West Bank had spent most of his life carrying weapons and launching
terror attacks against Israel. The group he headed in his camp, Al-Aqsa Martyrs
Brigades, was established during the Second Intifada on orders from Yasser
Arafat.
In several interviews over the past few years, Zubeidi made it clear that he
never had any intention of renouncing terrorism. In one interview, he said that
the Palestinian "resistance" could coexist alongside negotiating with Israel.
"Resistance is not defined yet," he explained. "It could be armed resistance and
it could be peaceful resistance."
Recently, Zubeidi told an Israeli TV correspondent that he "misses the intifada
and the revolution."
By its very own words and actions, Fatah makes it plainly clear that it is
anything but moderate and pragmatic. This is the same faction that is supposed
to be Israel's peace partner and whose leaders are welcomed around the world as
advocates of peace and coexistence. If this is moderation, one wonders how do
Palestinians define extremism? The international community might check Fatah's
communications in Arabic before answering that question for themselves.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Without Israel and the Palestinians, what progress can be made in Bahrain?
Jackson Richman/Jewish Press/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76013/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%83%d8%b3%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b4%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%b3-%d8%a3%d9%8a-%d9%86%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%82%d9%87-%d9%85/
With both Israeli and Palestinian officials absent from an upcoming economic
summit in Bahrain, how much progress can possibly be made at what has been
described as the first step in the US administration’s long-awaited plan for
Middle East peace?
According to American Enterprise Institute resident scholar and former Pentagon
official Michael Rubin, “A donors’ conference absent Israelis and Palestinians
would be a bit of an embarrassment. That [being] said, both economic integration
and Palestinian self-sufficiency are keys to a better future, deal or no deal.”
Despite being told Israel would participate in the conference by the United
States, Jerusalem has yet to receive an invitation to the event. Although the
Prime Minister’s Office has denied reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
no intention of “chasing an invitation,” it appears Netanyahu respects
Washington’s decision on the matter, a senior Israeli official told Channel 13
News.
On Tuesday, however, Netanyahu indicated Israeli officials would be attending
the conference, although he did not provide further details.
Nonetheless, news of the snub came as US special envoy to the Middle East Jason
Greenblatt indicated the White House may delay the publication of the highly
anticipated plan to November, to follow Israel’s second round of elections on
Sept. 17 and the High Holiday season.
“I think there’s even odds as to which concludes first: The Trump
administration’s ‘deal of the century’ or O.J. Simpson’s hunt for the real
killer,” quipped Rubin.
‘One important pillar of their plan’
Responding to an inquiry from JNS, an administration official said the goal of
the conference was economics and not politics.
“We will release a list of attendees closer to the workshop,” said the official.
“This is a workshop where we will present our economic vision for the
Palestinian people. As such, we want the focus to be on the economic aspect, not
the political.”
According to Security Studies Group senior fellow Matthew Brodsky, Greenblatt
and senior adviser to US President Donald Trump Jared Kushner recognized early
on that for peace to be sustainable between Palestinians and Israelis, “they
would, of course, need to address the core political issues of the conflict, but
would also need to focus on an economic plan as well. They have repeatedly
stated that both the political and economic plans are necessary in conjunction
[with each another] and that they are designed to reinforce each other,” he
said.
“In other words,” continued Brodsky, “this isn’t an economic workshop in Bahrain
instead of a political plan, but one important pillar of their plan that can
only happen in the context of a political solution.”
Daniel Pipes, president of the Middle East Forum, dismissed the economic
approach to the conflict.
“I don’t believe in the economic approach, so even if it were a successful
conference, I think it would be unsuccessful,” Pipes told JNS. “Nothing is going
to be successful economically. It’s rather a small amount in the larger aspect
of the conflict.”
“Nobody is particularly enthusiastic about handing over tens of billions [of
dollars],” he added.
In addition to Israel and the Palestinians, other major world powers, such as
Russia and China, are not set to attend. The European Union will only send a
“technical level official” to Bahrain, according to EU foreign policy chief
Federica Mogherini, who met with Kushner last week ahead of the conference.
Nevertheless, several Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and
the United Arab Emirates, have said that they will attend.
“It is wise to encourage more moderate Arab stakeholders to help guide the
Palestinians, rather than rely on countries like Qatar and Turkey, which fund
extremism,” said Rubin.
But the Palestinians on Thursday boasted they had foiled the Bahrain conference
by encouraging others to boycott the Trump administration.
In a statement to the Palestinian Authority’s official Wafa news agency,
spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said, “Any meeting, whether in Bahrain or elsewhere
and without the legitimate Palestinian endorsement, proves that Washington
cannot and will not succeed on its own in achieving anything.”
Rubin cautioned the PA’s strategy was likely destined to fail.
“Previously, the Taliban, North Korea, and Iran have lost their bets when they
gambled on the outcome of US elections,” he said.
“Even if [PA President] Mahmoud Abbas thinks he can do better if a Democrat
returns to the Oval Office, he likely misjudges the mood both in Congress and in
many Arab capitals, all of whom are becoming exasperated with Palestinian
corruption and rejectionism.”
What Have Trump’s Rallies Accomplished?
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/Friday, 21 June, 2019
Let's get one thing out of the way: There's nothing wrong with President Donald
Trump designating Tuesday night's rally as his “official” campaign kickoff.
Trump is unusual in that he formally launched his re-election campaign at the
beginning of his presidency, and in holding an endless series of political
rallies. But the only difference here between Trump and other first-term
presidents is one of strategy. They're all running for re-election from day one,
and many (okay, practically all) of their public appearances are staged with
that in mind.
That’s mostly a good thing. Presidents should work hard to be re-elected in
their first term. It introduces healthy incentives: Smart presidents will lead
with an eye toward winning over new voters and thus strive to govern
responsibly. So there's nothing wrong with Trump overtly campaigning from day
one, or with arbitrarily designating one of his rallies as the beginning of a
new phase of that campaign.
No, the question is what Trump has accomplished with all of his non-stop
electioneering. And the answer to that is pretty simple: Bupkis. Nada. Nothing.
All the available data suggests that Trump is an unusually unpopular president
who matches up badly against Democrats in hypothetical elections (with the usual
caveats about early polling). This despite having a number of “fundamentals” on
his side, including relative peace and prosperity.
It's possible that he'd be in even worse shape if it wasn't for all his
campaigning. But I think the opposite is more likely true. The fundamental
strategy Trump has pursued since his election has been to pitch virtually
everything he does to his strongest supporters and depend on rank partisanship
to keep other Republicans with him. He has hardly even attempted to reach out to
those who opposed him in 2016.
Even for presidents who were elected by a wide margin, that's a foolish
strategy. It deliberately squanders the powerful symbolic asset of the Oval
Office. That’s why normal presidents wait until late in their terms to begin
overt electioneering: It gives them more time to act as the leader of the entire
nation, and thereby encourage new voters to think of them someone they can root
for. It's an obvious way to win votes beyond their strongest supporters. And
it's something Trump has never even tried to do.
That’s all the more insensible because Trump won without a plurality, depending
on an unusual vote distribution that may prove impossible to duplicate. In other
words, no president in at least a century has had a greater need to win over new
voters, and yet no president has had so little apparent interest in doing
so.Perhaps he'll win anyway. Campaign strategy and tactics are overrated in
presidential elections, after all, and even if Trump’s plan is counterproductive
it might not be decisive. But it's very hard to see any political benefit from
what he's done, and quite possible to see it hurting his chances in 2020.
The Scandal of Callamard’s Report
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/June 21/2019
I don’t think that the United Nations needs a new distortion of its image, by
falsely attributing to it a report such as that of UN Special Rapporteur Agnes
Callamard about the death of Jamal Khashoggi.
It is true that Callamard’s position at the UN is an honorary one and that her
report is not binding, similar to dozens of reports that are submitted annually
to the Human Rights Council. It is also true that the UN did not originally task
her with this mission, but the major scandal has occurred and has been
attributed to the UN-affiliated institution.
We call it a scandal not only because the report contains dozens of
contradictions and illogical conclusions, and not because it did not carry
reliable evidence that can be assessed, but because the Rapporteur reflected her
own declared positions and convictions against the Kingdom in a report that is
supposed to be impartial and flawless.
Consequently, the credibility of the report has fallen even before its
announcement. Otherwise, how does Callamard talk about the presence of strong
evidence that she shared with Turkey, but not with the Saudi government, despite
the repeated demands of the Kingdom to be informed on any evidence that could
contribute to the investigation into the case.
Moreover, there is a striking similarity between the words found in the report
and the vocabulary used by the Turkish authorities in their organized media
attacks against the Kingdom, not to mention the reliance on erratic press and
unidentified sources.
Is all that resulted from Mrs. Callamard’s investigation during her five days in
Turkey a collection of conclusions drawn from the Turkish authorities,
Khashoggi's fiancé and the press sources?
Apart from the fact that the report neither represents the United Nations, nor
does it have binding legal consequences as it was not mandated by the
international organization, Callamard has overlooked a very important point: the
Kingdom’s Judiciary is the only competent authority to look into the case and
exercises its functions in complete independence. The Kingdom certainly rejects
attempts to undermine its sovereignty and to interfere in its internal affairs
by taking the case out of its current judicial course or trying to influence it,
as Mrs. Callamard is seeking to do.
Such arbitrary interference has no legal basis. The report, in the end, is
intended to be a media tool, not a legal report that can be dealt with. This is
the goal through which Callamard seeks to prolong the case in the media and give
it the dimension of propaganda to harm the reputation of the Kingdom. It
converges with the strategic objective set by the Turkish authorities since the
first day.
She, who describes al-Qaeda terrorists as “political reformers”, cannot be
considered trustworthy to issue a neutral report. She, who mocks the
participation of Saudi women in the Olympics for the first time in London 2012,
cannot be expected to present a fair account.
When she claims in her report that the “Saudi government has not conducted its
investigation in good faith,” it can only be said that the UN rapporteur and
those behind her - including countries and entities which are obstructing the
investigations and seeking to influence their course - are just another nail in
the coffin of the so-called international reports, in which they are nothing
more than a tool used in an ugly way to politicize issues that are supposed to
remain in their legal orbit.
In order to investigate the credibility of Callamard’s report and her positions
against Saudi Arabia, one should only skim through her Twitter page to know the
truth!
The Death of Iran’s Japanese Dream
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June 21/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76017/%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%af%d9%89-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1/
In a recent column, I talked about Japan’s “Iranian dream” the latest sequence
of which consisted of Shinzo Abe’s visit to Tehran to persuade the mullahs to
stop acting as a lone wolf and rejoin the international community. Abe had hoped
that defusing the “Iran time bomb” would heighten Japan’s international profile
commensurate with its status as the world’s second-biggest economic power. That
sequence of the dream, as we now know, ended with the Japanese Prime Minister
being harangued by the Ayatollah and sent packing.
Abe represented the third generation in his political family to visit Iran in
search of an international role. His father Shintaro Abe had called on Iran’s
ruling mullahs in the 1980s in a forlorn bid to end the Iran-Iraq war, thus
promoting Japan’s image as a global peacemaker. Before him, Shinzo’s maternal
grandfather Nobushuke Kishi, Japan’s postwar statesman and prime minister had
visited Tehran in 1968 at the head of a 100-man delegation of business leaders
at a time that no other country in Asia would welcome the Japanese because of
bad memories from Second World War. Then, Japan’s aim had been to reinsert
itself into the broader family of Asian nations and reassert independence from
the United States.
All three sequences in Japan’s Iranian dream ended in failure, albeit for
different reasons.
But, what about Iran's Japanese dream?
Yes, that dream also existed.
It first appeared in 1877 when, during a visit to Russia, Iran’s Nassereddin
Shah learned that the Tsarist Empire, regarded by Iranian as an enemy for 200
years, faced a new challenger in the shape of a small archipelago named Japan on
the edges of the Asian continent. To learn more, the Shah asked to see the
Japanese Ambassador to Russia and spent more than two-hours questioning him. The
result was the establishment of relations in 1879 followed by the arrival of a
special ambassador of the Japanese Emperor in 1880. Flanked by a 10-man military
and business team, the ambassador, a young aristocrat named Yoshida Masharo
arrived at an Iranian port aboard a warship. The Japanese wanted to show that
gunboats were not toys reserved only for Europeans.
Nassereddin Shah’s dream of forging an alliance with the Japanese to counter
Russian and British ambitions was put to the test in 1904, long after his death,
with the Russo-Japanese war that Japan decisively won. Iran, however, was of no
help as gripped by internal turmoil leading to the Constitutional revolution, it
could hardly stand let alone grandstand against the Northern Bear.
At the time, both Meiji Japan and Qajar Iran sought industrial and
administrative modernization based on the Western model, but excluding political
freedoms. The Japanese pursued that goal with their renowned discipline and
tenacity and achieved success in terms of raw power. Bedeviled by their equally
renowned lack of discipline and butterfly attention span, the Iranians just
managed to escape straight absorption into colonial empires.
Reza Shah, the soldier who founded the Pahlavi Dynasty in 1925 revived Iran’s
Japanese dream. In a letter to Hirohito, the Japanese Emperor, Reza Shah noted
that Iran and Japan were virtually the only two Asian countries to have escaped
colonization by Western powers, suggesting that they should forge a strategic
partnership.
However, having banked on the Berlin-Tokyo axis winning the war against Great
Britain and the Soviet Union, Reza Shah was soon forced into exile in 1941 when
the Allies invaded Iran. The Japanese side of the dream died in 1945 when the
Empire of the Rising Sun surrendered after the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. Kishi’s visit to Tehran revived the dream.
At the time, Kishi was no longer Prime Minister but acted as a father figure for
the emerging Japanese ruling elite. His checkered background, including a stint
as a brutal colonial Governor of Manchuria, in China, a Cabinet minister in the
wartime Japanese Cabinet, and then a prisoner of war in Sugamo, under the
Americans, made him a symbol of continuation in Japan.
The late Shah received Kishi for over two hours, an unusual audience for a
foreign visitor. As a result, Japan emerged as Iran’s number one trading partner
until the fall of the Shah. It also became a number-one foreign investor in Iran
as the Shah started talking of his dream of Iran as “a second Japan.” The
appointment of a former foreign minister as ambassador to Tokyo and exchanges of
visits at the highest levels of the two monarchies highlighted that dream.
However, the message from Kishi, when I interviewed him along with a colleague,
sounded the polar opposite of the Shah’s vision of Iran as an economic and
military giant projecting power across the globe. Kishi’s message was one of
humility, depicting Japan as a resource-poor country constantly threatened with
the prospect of poverty, even starvation. At the time, in a tongue-in-cheek
manner, I wrote that Kishi’s message might make us all cry for poor Japan!
Decades later, I realized that I had missed the sub-message in Kishi’s
discourse. He seemed convinced that Japan’s empire-building project had been a
mistake, even a crime that had claimed millions of lives and shattered so many
nations including Japan itself. What he tried to tell us, in his oblique
Shintoist manner, was that politics should be regarded as a public service
dealing with issues of real life and not abstractions such as imperial glory.
Japan had tried to enter the modern world by trying to ignore its rules and had
been severely punished. It had learned to accept the rules of the world it
wished to join, rules made and enforced by others.
There were two Japanese models: pre-war and post-war. Kishi was trying to sell
us the post-war one, i.e. a Japan of humility, hard work, frugality and, dare I
say, pragmatism. That second model helped Japan become a leading economic power
in just three decades.
The Iran that Shinzo Abe visited has no desire for the Japanese models, at least
as far as the ruling elite is concerned. Here is how daily Kayhan, reflecting
the ayatollah’s views, commented:” They say Japan is the second or third biggest
economy in the world. What is the use of that if its leaders must act as
servants of American masters? Abe saw how our Leader put Trump in his place… In
our relentless fight against America, we are also taking revenge for the blood
of hundreds of thousands of Japanese people sacrificed by the criminal and
blood-sucking America. Japan should join Iran in this struggle in a resistance
Front.”It is clear that, for the near future, both dreams: Iran’s of becoming a
second Japan and Japan’s of turning Iran into a strategic ally, are dead.
America Can Face Down a Fragile Iran
The regime is dangerous, but it isn’t nearly strong enough to withstand a
prolonged confrontation.
Reuel Marc Gerecht/Ray Takeyh/The Wall Street Journal/June 21/2019
In the U.S. and Europe, much of the mainstream media has swallowed a narrative
about Donald Trump and Iran. While Iran is an aggressive authoritarian state,
the story goes, it is nonetheless a victim of American belligerence. Tehran was
adhering to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated by the Obama
administration, when the truculent Mr. Trump abruptly abandoned the accord. For
more than a year, according to the narrative, the mullahs have shown patience by
continuing to abide by the agreement, even with the resurrection of punishing
American sanctions.
Iranian patience has run out, critics complain, because of the Trump
administration’s recent announcement that it will try to drive the Islamic
Republic’s oil exports to zero. Tehran’s “hard-liners” now have the upper hand.
Washington’s economic warfare, the narrative goes, may provoke the clerical
regime into a military conflict. And if war comes, the mullahs are ready to trap
America in another Middle Eastern quagmire.
The narrative misses a key point. Iran is in no shape for a prolonged
confrontation with the U.S. The regime is in a politically precarious position.
The sullen Iranian middle class has given up on the possibility of reform or
prosperity. The lower classes, once tethered to the regime by the expansive
welfare state, have also grown disloyal. The intelligentsia no longer believes
that faith and freedom can be harmonized. And the youth have become the regime’s
most unrelenting critics.
Iran’s fragile theocracy can’t absorb a massive external shock. That’s why
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has, for the most part, adhered to the JCPOA, and
why he is likely angling for negotiation over confrontation with the Great
Satan.
The ruling clerics, Mr. Khamenei in particular, are competent strategists. They
appreciate the need to enhance their leverage before any talks. Terrorism has
always been the regime’s preferred method of inflicting pain on adversaries.
Assassination attempts orchestrated by Iranian “diplomats” in Europe are on the
rise. These thwarted operations, which could have killed many people, appear to
have inclined the Europeans toward more dialogue with Tehran, not less.
The regime also has at its disposal foreign militias such as Hezbollah, which it
uses to target regional foes without admitting direct responsibility. And there
are more-direct means to increase negotiating leverage. The attacks in recent
weeks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman are probably the handiwork of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s naval units, which train regularly in the
use of mines. The most recent shipping attacks have had their intended effect.
European officials, Democratic politicians and much of the American press are
pleading for dialogue.
The key to dealing with the Islamic Republic is to appreciate that it is an
exhausted regime, perhaps well on its way to extinction. A vulnerable, resentful
enemy is a dangerous one. The U.S. should shore up its military might in the
region and harden defenses around bases and diplomatic compounds. But the
regime’s essential weakness means it can’t muster sufficient strength for a
prolonged conflict with a determined superpower. The mullahs’ clenched fists,
slogans of martyrdom, and staged demonstrations shouldn’t be confused with real
power. The Trump administration’s strategy of maximum pressure shouldn’t be
diluted as the two sides edge closer to the negotiating table.
Despite the criticisms from Democrats and Europeans, Mr. Trump’s Iran policy has
had considerable success. He abrogated a deficient agreement that was smoothing
Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon. He restored sanctions, which many Iran-deal
partisans insisted couldn’t be done effectively. The economic pain Tehran feels
today is as great as when the Europeans implemented their oil embargo in 2012.
Iran’s oil exports have contracted rapidly, denying the regime billions of
dollars in hard currency. The key challenge for the Trump administration now is
to sustain its strategy as the Iranians start dangling the possibility of a
diplomatic opening.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s most important contribution has been to
dispense with the once-popular notion that the nuclear issue can be separated
from the clerical regime’s regional ambitions. His May 2018 “12 points” speech
sensibly posited that the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism shouldn’t possess
a nuclear arsenal. The administration has developed a containment strategy that
is unconventional and restrained—Iran’s expeditionary forces and allied militias
in the northern Middle East haven’t been targeted—but still punishing. As long
as Mr. Trump is willing to respond to a direct challenge, conventional or
nuclear, and Tehran is convinced of the president’s mettle, time is on
Washington’s side.
America’s Iran problem will remain until the theocracy cracks. Given the
regime’s inability to escape the contradictions of its own making, that day is
drawing closer. The U.S. needs stamina—and a clear understanding of how the
enemy sees itself.
*Mr. Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Drone attack – Iran needs to know it will pay a price for its risky provocations
Mikhael Smits/David Adesnik/FDD/June 21/2019
Will the U.S. launch a military strike against Iran to retaliate for that
nation’s downing of an American surveillance drone Thursday?
We don’t know, but U.S. forces are in position and ready to attack if ordered by
President Trump. And of course, no one knows how Iran would respond to a U.S.
attack if it takes place.
In a story based on unidentified sources, the New York Times reported that Trump
ordered strikes against a small number of Iranian military targets but canceled
plans at the last minute Thursday night.
“The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior
administration official said,” the Times reported. “Planes were in the air and
ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand
down, the official said.”
The U.S. military and intelligence community have likely identified the most
suitable targets for a potential counterattack against Iran, or determined
whether a different type of pressure will be most effective.
American economic sanctions have wreaked havoc on the Iranian economy – one
reason Iran is trying to stare down the Trump administration. The U.S. could
push even harder or on the sanctions, or perhaps President Trump will select a
covert response.
Iran has shown that it likes to escalate one notch at time, testing just how far
it can go without provoking a response from American forces it cannot hope to
match in a direct fight.
The important thing is that the U.S. must make clear to Iran that the Islamic
Republic does not have a free hand to attack the U.S. or its allies.
We don’t know who leaked the story to The New York Times about the supposedly
canceled U.S. attack on Iran, but the leak may have been a deliberate attempt by
Trump administration officials to send a loud and clear warning to Iran without
actually engaging in armed conflict.
Iran bragged Thursday that it shot down the U.S. drone near the Persian Gulf.
The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps called the attack a “clear
message to America.”
But even before the report of a canceled U.S. attack on Iran, President Trump
had a clear message of his own for the radical Shiite regime in Tehran: “They’re
going to find out they made a very big mistake,” the president told reporters in
the White House.
Trump also told reporters he had not yet decided whether the U.S. will launch
retaliatory strikes to punish Tehran for what the U.S. military described as an
“unprovoked attack” in international airspace more than 20 miles from land.
Iran claims that the U.S. drone was in Iranian airspace, but this denial is no
more credible than Iranian protests of innocence that followed last week’s
attacks on a pair of oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
Despite U.S. surveillance footage that showed an Iranian vessel pulling up
alongside one of the two damaged tankers last week, foreign leaders demanded
additional proof. It seems they now have what they were looking for.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel now says there is “strong evidence” Iran was
behind the attacks.
In Washington, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., — the chairman of the House
Intelligence Committee – confirmed that “there’s no question that Iran is behind
the attacks” and said, “the evidence is very strong and compelling.”
This pattern of Iranian aggression makes it essential for the U.S. to show
Tehran that Iran will pay a price for its dangerous provocations. Whereas last
week’s attack targeted foreign ships, this time Iran knowingly went directly
after an American military aircraft. Its decision to attack an unmanned
aircraft, however, may reflect a careful, high-stakes calculation.
Last month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly communicated to Iran that
if it killed a single American there would be a punishing U.S. response.
Thursday’s Iranian attack may have deliberately stopped just short of Pompeo’s
line.
This should not be surprising. Iran has shown that it likes to escalate one
notch at time, testing just how far it can go without provoking a response from
American forces it cannot hope to match in a direct fight.
This is one important lesson of Iranian-sponsored attacks on American troops
during the war in Iraq, which cost hundreds of American lives. When the U.S.
sought to avoid a confrontation, Iran turned up the temperature. When U.S.
forces pushed back, Iran retreated.
So far, despite stern warnings from President Trump after previous attacks, Iran
has not paid a price. Rather than waiting for the U.S. to act, the Iranians
struck again by shooting down the U.S. drone.
There is every reason to believe this pattern will continue if the U.S. does not
match the firm words of President Trump and top administration officials with
firm action.
Of course, the Trump administration does not want a war in the Gulf, so its
response should be carefully calibrated. This likely explains why the president
seemed to offer Tehran a face-saving way out of a confrontation of its own
making.
In reference to the attack on the U.S. drone, Trump told reporters Thursday that
it was “hard to believe it was intentional,” speculating that the attack was a
mistake made by an Iranian officer “who was loose and stupid.”
There are two problems with this approach.
First, Iran is a highly centralized dictatorship. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei calls all the shots. No one would think of shooting down a U.S. drone
without permission.
Second, if the U.S. gives Iran a pass on the grounds of a supposed mistake by
one person “who was loose and stupid,” the lesson will be that America would
rather make excuses for its enemy than confront aggression. The likely result
would be more Iranian aggression.
The U.S. is prepared for a conflict with Iran if it erupts. The Trump
administration has increased U.S. combat power in the Persian Gulf, approving a
request from the U.S. commander in the region to deploy an additional 1,000
military personnel.
In addition to holding Iran accountable, it is important to keep in mind the
strategic value of the skies and seas where this conflict is playing out. More
than 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz
at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
In April, Iran threatened to close the strait, something it often threatens to
intimidate its neighbors and the U.S.
America is now the world’s leading producer of oil, but if Iran were able to
close the strait, the action could still lead to global oil shortages that would
hurt American consumers and consumers in other nations.
Importantly, the skies above the strait give the world a valuable look into
Iran’s malign behavior. Iran knows the stakes, and has attacked drones to
prevent the U.S. from capturing evidence.
Earlier this month, Yemeni rebels known as Houthis who are backed by Iran shot
down a high-altitude drone with Iranian support. Just last week, Iran fired at
and missed at U.S. drone over the site of the oil tanker attacks.
Iran may also have been hoping its own forces could recover the remains of the
drone they shot down. U.S. drones have advanced intelligence-gathering
capabilities, and Tehran wants to acquire U.S. technology for its own drone
program.
Losing a drone is also expensive for the U.S. Variants of the drone shot down by
Iran cost $120 million to $200 million, making it the most expensive unmanned
aircraft in the American arsenal.
The important thing is that Iran immediately feels, even if it does not yet
understand, that it does not have a free hand to attack the U.S. or its allies.
Actions by both sides in the coming days and weeks will determine if the Iranian
attack on the U.S. drone will escalate into a far more serious military
confrontation.
*Mikhael Smits is a research analyst at FDD’s Center for Military and Political
Power. Follow him on Twitter at @mikhaelsmits. David Adesnik is director of
research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based
nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Follow him on Twitter at @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD.