English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 09/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
No one has greater love than this, to lay down one’s life for one’s friends. You are my friends if you do what I command you
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 15/09-16/:”As the Father has loved me, so I have loved you; abide in my love. If you keep my commandments, you will abide in my love, just as I have kept my Father’s commandments and abide in his love. I have said these things to you so that my joy may be in you, and that your joy may be complete. ‘This is my commandment, that you love one another as I have loved you. No one has greater love than this, to lay down one’s life for one’s friends. You are my friends if you do what I command you. I do not call you servants any longer, because the servant does not know what the master is doing; but I have called you friends, because I have made known to you everything that I have heard from my Father. You did not choose me but I chose you. And I appointed you to go and bear fruit, fruit that will last, so that the Father will give you whatever you ask him in my name.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 08-09/2020
19 New Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon
Ministry of Finance says 11th meeting with IMF broached public finance rules
Crisis Group Warns Lebanon Needs Urgent Aid, Reform
Aoun Chairs Meeting on Lebanon's Talks with IMF
Diab chairs inter-ministerial meeting for repatriation of Lebanese nationals
Diab’s press office: Diesel samples being tested prior to distribution
Diab: Protecting civil peace should be shouldered by all political forces
Interior Minister Says Saturday’s Violence was ‘Planned’
Report: Foreign Agendas Dragging Lebanon to 'Major Crisis'
OGERO Head, Board Members Referred to Audit Bureau, Public Prosecution
Diab: Civil Peace is Everyone's Responsibility, Not Only Govt.'s
Lebanese Army: Security Breaches Won’t be Tolerated
Lebanon Averts Sectarian Strife as Opposition Accuses Aoun of Failing to Ease Tensions
Lebanese protesters call for Hezbollah disarmament, clashes ensue
Minister of Labor tells EU Ambassador Lebanon adamant to reform “KAFALA” system
Berri meets Justice minister, Boueiz
Hariri Meets Jumblat in Clemenceau
Mikati, UN's Kubis tackle latest developments
Suspects detained over Carlos Ghosn escape will remain in Turkish jail
Iran prepares to confront Israel in Syria via Hezbollah - report
No Easy Sailing/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/June 08/2020
We banned Hezbollah activities in Germany. Now it’s the EU’s turn/Christoph Bernstiel/Al Arabiya/June 08/2020
Hezbollah dragging Lebanon closer to new civil war/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 08/2020.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 08-09/2020
WHO Says Coronavirus Situation 'Worsening' Worldwide
Pompeo warning as US sanctions imposed on Iranian shipping network over proliferation
Iran MPs chant ‘death to America’ to show ‘respect’ for US George Floyd protests
Missile hits near US base in Baghdad international airport, no casualties
US military plane crashes into Iraqi base, no fatalities reported
Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia to resume giant Nile dam talks Tuesday
Erdogan, Trump Agree 'Close Cooperation' on Libya
Democrats Take a Knee in U.S. Congress in George Floyd Tribute
Air Strikes Break Truce in Opposition Towns in Syria's Idlib
Turkey Uses Iraqi ISIS Members to Operate in Syria
Jordan Thwarts Terrorist Plot to Target Security Site
Tripoli Authorities Impose Total Curfew in Libya’s Southern Region
German FM to Travel to Tel Aviv, Warn Netanyahu Against Annexation
Egyptian-Sudanese Rapprochement Intimidates Ethiopia
Iraqi PM Starts Restructuring Administrative, Security Posts

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
 on June 08-09/2020
Iran Between Procrastination, Sabotaging and Nuclear Proliferation/Charles Elias Chartouni/June 08/2020
What the New York Times Never Told Readers About Sirajuddin Haqqani/Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/June 08/2020
Turkey and Russia are at War, and Libya’s the Loser/James Stavridis/Bloombergt/Monday, 8 June, 2020
COVID-19 in Iran and Turkey: Mismanagement, Crackdowns, Economic Crises, and Corona-Diplomacy/Aykan Erdemir/Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/June 08/2020
How to Confront Iran/Scott Modell/Newsweek/June08/2020
Hong Kong Today, Taiwan Next/Bradley Bowman/ Newsweek/June 08/2020
Non-Muslims Always “Welcomed” and Learned from Islam, Iran Claims/Raymond Ibrahim/June 08/2020
Palestinians: The Problem with 'Peace'/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June08/2020
France: Post-Pandemic Disaster?/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/June08/2020
The growing dispute between revolution and state in Iran/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/June 08/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 08-09/2020
19 New Coronavirus Cases in Lebanon
Naharnet/June 08/2020
Lebanon on Monday confirmed 19 more COVID-19 coronavirus cases, raising the overall tally to 1,350. The Health Ministry said 14 of the new cases were recorded among residents and five among repatriated Lebanese expats. All of the local infections have been traced to known sources, the Ministry added in its daily statement. It said 10 of the cases were recorded in Majdal Anjar, three in Barja, two in al-Beddawi and one in each of al-Amrousiyeh, Suwayri, al-Marwaniyeh and Shaqra.

Ministry of Finance says 11th meeting with IMF broached public finance rules
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
The press office of the Ministry of Finance on Monday said in a statement that the Lebanese negotiating delegation, headed by Minister of Finance Dr. Ghazi Wazni, has held its eleventh meeting with the International Monetary Fund in the presence of a team from the Lebanese Central Bank. “The meeting mainly discussed the framework for the application of public finance rules,” the statement said, adding that discussions will be followed up tomorrow. “It should be noted that negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are not bound by a specific time frame, and they will be concluded as soon as possible,” the statement added.

Crisis Group Warns Lebanon Needs Urgent Aid, Reform
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 08/2020
Lebanon needs urgent international help and long-demanded reforms to shield its people from their country's worst ever economic crunch, the International Crisis Group said Monday. "Lebanon will need emergency external assistance to ward off the worst social consequences of the crisis," the Brussels-based think tank wrote in a new report. "The economic crisis is without precedent in the country's history," the ICG said. The Mediterranean country's economy has been in freefall since last year, partly sparking mass protests from October against an entrenched political class viewed as inept and corrupt.
The local currency has plunged in value, prices have soared, and tens of thousands have lost their jobs or seen their salaries slashed -- all compounded from mid-March by a coronavirus lockdown. The heavily indebted country defaulted for the first time in March. The government has since adopted an economic recovery plan and entered talks with the International Monetary Fund, seeking to unlock billions of dollar in aid. "Lebanon needs to urgently push ahead with the negotiations with the IMF, on which support from other sources also depends," the ICG warned. The country is seeking around $9 billion from the IMF, the finance minister has said, on top of another $11 billion in grants and loans pledged by international donors in 2018 but never released due to a lack of reform. Meanwhile, "external donors may need to step up humanitarian assistance to help those Lebanese hardest hit by the crisis," the ICG said. More than 35 percent of Lebanese are unemployed, while poverty has soared to over 45 percent of the population, according to official estimates. The ICG said external actors and donors should also "focus on efforts geared at rooting out corruption and clientelism". Future governments will have to implement significant reforms "to put the country's fiscal and economic system back on a sound footing," it said. "Such structural change will have to put an end to the political model in which corrupt and self-serving cliques appropriate and redistribute state resources and public goods."The think tank said it was "highly questionable" whether the political elite would be able to oversee such a transition, describing it as tantamount to "pulling out the rug from under their own feet". "It is very hard to imagine that they will do so unless the Lebanese who have gone into the streets since October 2019 find ways to exert sustained pressure on the country's political institutions," it said.

Aoun Chairs Meeting on Lebanon's Talks with IMF
Naharnet/June 08/2020
President Michel Aoun on Monday chaired a financial meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda. A statement issued after the meeting said the conferees "discussed the numbers related to the financial and banking sector."
"They agreed that the numbers in the government's reform plan should be a valid groundwork for continuing the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund," the statement said. Discrepancies had recently surfaced in the numbers presented by the Finance Ministry and the central bank.
The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Hassab Diab, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, Presidency Director General Antoine Choucair, Finance Ministry Director General Alain Bifani and the advisers Charbel Kordahi, Georges Chalhoub, Henri Chaoul and Talal Salman.
It was preceded by a closed-door meeting between Aoun and Diab.

Diab chairs inter-ministerial meeting for repatriation of Lebanese nationals
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, chaired the inter-ministerial meeting for the repatriation of Lebanese this afternoon, in the presence of Deputy Prime and Minister of Defense ZeinaAkar, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Nassif Hitti, Interior and Municipalities Mohammad Fahmi, Public Health Hamad Hassan, Public Works and Transport Michel Najjar, Information ManalAbdel Samad and Social Affairs and Tourism Ramzi Musharrafieh, as well as Secretary General of the Higher Defense Council Major-General Mahmoud Al-Asmar, Director General of the General Directorate of General SecurityMajor-General Abbas Ibrahim, Political Affairs Chief at the Ministry of Foreign AffairsAmbassador Ghadi Khoury, PM’s Advisor for Health Affairs Petra Khoury, MEA Chairman Mohammad Al-Hout, Head of Rafik Hariri International Airport Mr. Fadi El Hassan, PM’s Advisor Hussein Kaafarani and Col. Hadi Abou Chakra. Attendees discussed the preparations for the fourth phase of Lebanese repatriation, which will be extend from June 11 till June 19. Another meeting will be held in the upcoming days to approach public safety measures that will accompany the airport’s reopening plan.--PM Press Office

Diab’s press office: Diesel samples being tested prior to distribution
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Upon directives from Prime Minister Hassan Diab, diesel oil samples were taken from ships tonight to perform necessary laboratory tests, provided that diesel oil is distributed to the markets within the next 24 hours after the results of the tests are released.—PM Press Office

Diab: Protecting civil peace should be shouldered by all political forces
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab stressed the importance of preserving civil peace, because all Lebanese, and not only one party or region will pay the price of any stability setback. During his meetings today, PM Diab stressed that the protection of civil peace is a national responsibility to be shouldered by all political forces, not just the government; thus, no one can evade its responsibilities, in any position whatsoever. Diab stated that last Saturday’s events constitute a wake-up call to stop stirring tensions, because the persistence of such level of performance and political positions will lead to the establishment’s collapse that will spare no one. Prime Minister Diab pointed out that the circumstances that Lebanon is going through require everyone to assume the highest levels of national affiliation and responsibility, because stirring up sedition is a national betrayal and people who are keen on preserving the country are supposed to confront sedition and defeat all projects causing strife. “Today, national solidarity is needed in order to overcome social and livelihoods’ crises, and to ease the burdens on Lebanese people; it is not permissible in any way to exploit people's concerns for political gains”, PM Diab said. Prime Minister Diab touched upon the Judiciary Martyrs Day, affirming that the judiciary holds the scales even and separates justice and reform, from chaos and corruption, and that Lebanese people constantly rely on an effective and proactive judiciary that strives to do right and address injustice.—PM Press Office

Interior Minister Says Saturday’s Violence was ‘Planned’

Naharnet/June 08/2020
Interior Minister Mohamed Fahmi said that some of the incidents and insults that triggered clashes between protesters in Beirut over the weekend were “intentional and premeditated,” al-Joumhouria daily said on Monday. “We had strong indicators that a fifth column could interfere in the demonstrations to trigger tension and sedition, and this is exactly what happened” Fahmi told the daily. He said he was totally convinced that the violence, clashes and sectarian insults were deliberate and planned in advance, noting that investigations are ongoing with individuals detained at the scene to uncover the details and circumstances. However, he assured that the security forces are in control and always ready to shoulder their responsibility to protect civil peace and internal stability. “It is inadmissible to trigger sectarian strife, no matter what it costs," he said. Riots and sectarian tensions erupted in central Beirut and other areas Saturday overnight, leaving dozens of people injured, including 25 soldiers, as the Lebanese military warned that the clashes had endangered national unity. The Lebanese Red Cross said 48 demonstrators were wounded, 11 of whom were hospitalized. Shooting broke out in several areas around Lebanon after videos circulated on social media showing some supporters of Hizbullah and AMAL chanting sectarian insults. Saturday’s protests were the largest since the government last month began gradually easing a lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. Nationwide protests against Lebanon's political leaders had erupted on Oct. 17 amid an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, but were eventually put on hold due to the pandemic.

Report: Foreign Agendas Dragging Lebanon to 'Major Crisis'
Naharnet/June 08/2020
After fierce clashes that erupted on Saturday in Beirut leaving many wounded, reports said that some “external parties are manipulating sides inside Lebanon in order to trigger a major crisis,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. “There is a serious feeling at all levels that some external parties are trying, through internal parties that have become known to all by name, to take Lebanon to a major crisis,” the daily quoted prominent political sources as saying. “Saturday’s incidents were a big shock to all political parties who must join efforts to protect the country. What happened has dangerously stirred strife and sedition, putting the fate of the nation and Lebanese at stake,” added the sources. “The gravity of the situation threw the ball in the ruling authority’s court which must take, through the government it supports, immediate and qualitative steps to enforce the economy, monetary and security situation,” they added.
Riots and sectarian tensions erupted in central Beirut and other areas Saturday overnight, leaving dozens of people injured, including 25 soldiers, as the Lebanese military warned that the clashes had endangered national unity. The Lebanese Red Cross said 48 demonstrators were wounded, 11 of whom were hospitalized. Shooting broke out in several areas around Lebanon after videos circulated on social media showing some supporters of Hizbullah and AMAL chanting sectarian insults. President Michel Aoun on Sunday condemned “any insult against the religious symbols of any component of the Lebanese family and the subsequent acts of violence and reactions that occurred overnight in several Lebanese regions.” Saturday’s protests were the largest since the government last month began gradually easing a lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. Nationwide protests against Lebanon's political leaders had erupted on Oct. 17 amid an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, but were eventually put on hold due to the pandemic.

OGERO Head, Board Members Referred to Audit Bureau, Public Prosecution
Naharnet/June 08/2020
Audit Bureau Prosecutor Judge Fawzi Khamis on Monday decided to refer Imad Kreidiyeh, the head of the OGERO telecom authority, and two board members to the Audit Bureau and the public prosecution. The two board members are Ghassan Daher and Hadi Abu Farhat. The move comes over “violations committed by OGERO as part of a consensual agreement with the Telecom Ministry to carry out maintenance works and operate the facilities and landline networks belonging to the Ministry for the year 2019.”

Diab: Civil Peace is Everyone's Responsibility, Not Only Govt.'s

Naharnet/June 08/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Monday stressed the importance of “preserving civil peace,” warning that “all Lebanese would pay the price for any stability setback, not only a single group or region.”“The protection of civil peace is the national responsibility of all political forces, not only the government, that’s why no one can evade this responsibility regardless of their position,” Diab said during his meetings on Monday. “What happened on Saturday was an alarm bell,” the PM added, referring to the sectarian unrest in several Lebanese regions.
“Continuing this performance and these political stances will lead to a collapse that will affect all Lebanese,” he warned. He also cautioned that “stirring discord resembles national treason,” calling on all those keen on the country and its people to “confront all sedition schemes.”“It is unacceptable, in any way whatsoever, to exploit people’s concerns for political gains,” Diab went on to say.

Lebanese Army: Security Breaches Won’t be Tolerated
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
The Lebanese Army said Sunday that 25 soldiers were injured the previous night during violence that broke out following confrontations and protests held in the capital, Beirut. In a communique issued by the general command, it said its units arrested four foreigners, a Syrian, a Palestinian and two Sudanese, for involvement in riots on Saturday night. "As the deployed Army units were carrying out their duties in maintaining security, opening roads that were blocked by protesters, and preventing infringement on public and private property,” they were attacked with stones and explosives, resulting in the injury of 25 troops, one of them with a serious eye injury, said the communique. Saturday's violence "could have dragged the country into a dangerous slope, as what happened almost destroyed national unity, tore civil peace and nurtured division." It also made clear that “no further security breaches or instability would be tolerated.” "The security of the people and country is above any other consideration,” it added. On Saturday night, clashes broke out between some anti-government protesters and Hezbollah followers. The protesters raised slogans demanding social and economic reforms and the implementation of international resolutions on illegitimate arms. The clashes erupted when followers of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement tried to advance from Khandaa al-Ghami area towards downtown Beirut, where the protesters were gathering. Tension then stretched to areas of Ain al-Rimmaneh and Shiyah, where the Army intervened to restore calm. However, the Army’s rapid security controls were not well imposed in other areas, particularly after tension between residents in Tareeq al-Jdideh and Corniche al-Mazraa from one side and Barbour from another. The clashes reached an unprecedented level as both sides used arms to shoot sporadically in the streets of Beirut.

Lebanon Averts Sectarian Strife as Opposition Accuses Aoun of Failing to Ease Tensions
Beirut – Mohammed Chocair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Lebanon averted over the weekend sectarian strife that would have pitted some neighborhoods of West Beirut against the southern suburbs of the capital, a Hezbollah stronghold.
Saturday witnessed anti-government protests that soon turned sectarian when “undisciplined” demonstrators, estimated in the hundreds, began making provocative religious and sectarian chants. That resulted in scuffles between the protesters and supporters of the Shiite Hezbollah party and Amal Movement, of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The situation could have spiraled out of control without the quick thinking of Islamic and political leaders, who soon denounced the protesters. The army and Internal Security Forces were also quick to intervene by deploying along hotspots and preventing further scuffles between the rivals. Anti-government protests that had erupted in Lebanon in October 2019 had been calling for political change and holding to account officials who had led the country to its worst economic crisis in decades. New over the weekend’s rallies were demands for the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1559 and the disarmament of Hezbollah, the only party that did not lay down its weapons after the 1975-90 Lebanese civil war.
Saturday’s political demands were a departure from the anti-government demonstrators’ typical calls for fighting corruption and improving living conditions. The rallies soon turned violent with the “undisciplined” elements vandalizing public and private property and scuffling with Hezbollah and Amal supporters. What started as a protest in downtown Beirut soon spread to the Corniche al-Mazraa district, where battle lines were drawn with the Barbour area, where Berri used to live before he was elected parliament speaker.
Ultimately, Saturday’s unrest damaged the anti-government protests, which were originally hailed for transcending confessional divides. The sectarian nature of the weekend’s developments demands that the protesters review and reassess their movement, which has been veered off its original course after it was “infiltrated” by political groups that have scores to settle with Hezbollah and its supporters. The protesters were not the only side to blame for the unrest. The “undisciplined” supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, who had streamed into downtown Beirut to confront the protesters from their nearby Khandaq al-Ghamiq stronghold, are also to blame for allowing rival rallies to gather and direct messages against the party. These “undisciplined” supporters have in turn embarrassed their Hezbollah and Amal leaderships, prompting Berri and head of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council to intervene and avert the strife. Dar al-Fatwa, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and other leaderships also took action to stem the violence.
President to blame
A prominent opposition source told Asharq Al-Awsat that it was “unnecessary” to “sectarianize” the dispute over Hezbollah’s weapons, seeing as it is a point of contention among many political parties regardless of their sectarian affiliations. It said that Sunni leaderships, starting with Hariri, are keen on averting sectarian strife and blocking attempts to return Sunni-Shiite ties back to square one. Most importantly, the source wondered at the role of the presidency in preventing strife and avoiding fueling tensions among Sunni circles. Such tensions cannot be tackled with media and sensational statements, but with tangible steps. Whoever truly wants to safeguard coexistence and ensure the rise of a civil state does not form a government that keeps out a main Sunni component in the country, it remarked. It noted that even though current PM Hassan Diab heads a government of technocrats, the ministers are really controlled by the political and sectarian leaders who appointed them. President Michel Aoun is to blame for failing to ensure fair representation in cabinet, said the source. He noted how the president soon abandoned his call for the formation of a technopolitical government, which he had imposed on Hariri to accept his naming as PM, in favor of the formation of a technocrat cabinet, which Hariri had called for, but headed by Diab. The “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and Amal could have objected to this, but accepted it for yet undisclosed reasons, continued the source.
Whoever wants to contain the tensions should not support campaigns that target the political performance of the Hariri family during the past three decades and does not appoint a prime minister – Diab – who barely has any political credentials, stressed the source. Even though the Shiite duo will address the sectarian tensions with Sunni leaderships, this does not exempt Aoun, in his capacity as president, from assuming his responsibilities, especially since he was the one who proposed the current government. Instead of forming a national unity government, Aoun approved a cabinet that suits Hezbollah and its allies, namely the Free Patriotic Movement, which he founded and is now headed by his son-in-law MP Gebran Bassil, but is incapable of handling challenges.

Lebanese protesters call for Hezbollah disarmament, clashes ensue
Jerusalem Post/June 08/2020
'With their weapons, they are controlling the state, they are controlling everything'
As anti-government protests are renewed in Lebanon amidst a continuing economic crisis, some protesters called for the disarmament of the Hezbollah terrorist group, leading to violent clashes with Hezbollah supporters.
Dozens were injured as pro-Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah protesters clashed in Beirut on Saturday amid massive demonstrations. Anti-Hezbollah protesters held signs reading "No weapons but legal weapons. 1559, make it happen," according to Al-Arabiya. UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon.
“With their weapons, they are controlling the state, they are controlling everything,” said one protester to Al-Arabiya. “The smuggling comes from the weapons, the poverty comes from the weapons, the stealing comes from the weapons, the corruption comes from the weapons. If we got rid of the weapons, the rest of the problems will be solved.”
Another protester pointed out that only Hezbollah has weapons "on the ground" and only the Lebanese Army should have weapons.
The demonstration on Sunday was organized by the Sabaa party, which is associated with anti-Hezbollah partites such as the Christian Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties and Sunni politicians Bahaa Hariri and Ashraf Rifi who both oppose Hezbollah having weapons, according to Al-Arabiya.
During the October protests, officials from the Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties spoke out multiple times against Hezbollah and other government officials. MPs from the Lebanese Forces party were some of the first to step down during the October protests.Some protesters objected to the anti-Hezbollah statements on Saturday, accusing the protesters of sowing discord. A separate demonstration was organized by other activist groups who focused on the economic demands of protesters.
The protests on Saturday became violent amid clashes between protesters and between protesters and security forces. Supporters of Hezbollah and the pro-Hezbollah Amal Movement threw rocks at protesters and security forces and later fired on some protesters in Beirut, leading to a number of injuries, according to Al-Arabiya. Continued gunfire could be heard in video reportedly from the scene.
During the anti-government protests that began in October last year, protesters also clashed a number of times with Hezbollah and Amal.
Multiple incidents were reported during the October protests in which Hezbollah supporters violently attacked both protesters and security forces. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah denied reports of clashes at the time. Protesters at the time often chanted “Kullun yaani Kullun,” meaning “all of them means all of them,” to emphasize that the entire government must step down, including Hezbollah.
Most of the protests throughout Lebanon in October expressed solidarity with the demonstrators in Nabatieh, a major Hezbollah stronghold. Over 25 people were injured in the city and journalists were prevented from filming.
After the Lebanese government was dissolved in light of the October protests, a government largely controlled by Hezbollah and its allies was formed after a long series of negotiations in January.

Minister of Labor tells EU Ambassador Lebanon adamant to reform “KAFALA” system
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Labor Minister, Lamia Yammine, on Monday confirmed during her meeting with European Union Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, that work was underway to reform “KAFALA” system in Lebanon.
She noted that the Ministry of Labor had taken several preliminary measures en route to “KAFALA” system reform. These measures include a standardized work contract, a hotline to receive complaints from foreign workers, and a set of agreements with the embassies of the countries concerned in a bid to organize labor and combat human trafficking. The Minister also promised additional amendments to the Lebanese labor law to include the domestic workers’ profession as a decent profession within the law.
“The European Union is ready to provide all the necessary support for the success of these reforms,” Tarraf said following his meeting with Yammine.

Berri meets Justice minister, Boueiz
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at his Ain El Tineh residence the Minister of Justice, Marie-Claude Najm, with whom he discussed the general situation and judicial affairs. Speaker Berri also met with former Minister Fares Boueiz, with whom he discussed most recent political developments and the general situation in the country. On emerging, Boueiz stressed the substantial need to address key dossiers, most notably the electricity dossier.
On the other hand, Berri received a cable from Pope of Alexandria Tawadros II, congratulating him on occasion of the holy Fitr Eid.

Hariri Meets Jumblat in Clemenceau

Naharnet/June 08/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri held talks with leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, ex-MP Walid Jumblat at the latter’s residence in Clemenceau, Hariri’s media office said Sunday evening. Talks between the two men focused on the “latest political developments and the general situation in the country,” it said. Hariri was accompanied by former Minister Ghattas Khoury and the meeting was attended by the head of the Democratic Gathering Bloc MP Taymour Jumblatt, MP Wael Abu Faour and former Minister Ghazi Aridi.

Mikati, UN's Kubis tackle latest developments
NNA/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Former Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, welcomed this Monday in his office the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom he discussed the current situation and most recent developments. Talks also reportedly touched on the situation in south Lebanon in light of the ongoing deliberations over the renewal of UNIFIL mandate, as well as the role of the United Nations in helping Lebanon to address the current challenges.

Suspects detained over Carlos Ghosn escape will remain in Turkish jail
Reutes/ IstanbulMonday 08 June 2020
A Turkish judge ruled on Monday to keep five people in jail at the start of their trial over former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn’s escape from Japan to Lebanon via Istanbul, a lawyer for one of the suspects said. An executive from Turkish private jet operator MNG Jet and four pilots were detained in early January shortly after the escape and were charged with migrant smuggling, a sentence carrying a maximum sentence of eight years in jail. At the time of the incident, MNG Jet said the executive acted without the knowledge of the company and it had filed a criminal complaint for the illegal use of its aircraft. “We expect our client to be acquitted in the end,” said Mehmet Fatih Danaci, a lawyer for jet operator executive Okan Kosemen, adding that even if found guilty and handed a maximum sentence, Kosemen should only serve a short time in jail. In April, Turkey’s parliament passed a law allowing the release of tens of thousands of prisoners to ease overcrowding in jails and protect detainees from the coronavirus outbreak.  “Even if convicted of this crime, our client, who denies this accusation, has nearly served the time he needed to remain in jail under the recently imposed amnesty,” Danaci said. The first full hearing in case is due to be held on July 3.Ghosn has said he fled to Lebanon to escape what he called a “rigged” justice system in Japan, where he faces charges relating to alleged financial crimes, which he denies. The US arrested two men last month on charges of enabling the dramatic escape on Dec. 29, 2019. Japan said it was working to extradite them from the US.

Iran prepares to confront Israel in Syria via Hezbollah - report
Jerusalem Post/June 08/2020
Iran may be preparing for conflict with Israel in Syria and no longer will accept Israeli airstrikes on its warehouses without a response, a report over the weekend suggested. Veteran journalist Elijah Magnier wrote on the website Medium about whether the “great Middle Eastern war will begin in the Levant” and cited Syria as a potential flashpoint.
Magnier’s report is interesting because he asserts that according to “private” sources, Iran is evacuating “sites of the gatherings of its advisers, not for withdrawal or for redeployment, but to find bases within the Syrian Army barracks. Hezbollah has taken over the vacated Iranian buildings. Russia has been informed of the change so that the information would reach Israel.” In mid-May, reports emerged that Iran might be withdrawing some of its forces from Syria, estimated at some 1,000 IRGC personnel. But analysts and US officials rejected this assessment at the time.
The June 6 piece by Magnier provides another view as to what may be happening: “Iran no longer wants to accept Israeli strikes on its warehouses without any response.”
An airstrike killed nine Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Radio Farda reported over the weekend. This report also said there were explosions near Masyaf, a Syrian-regime and Iranian facility that has been hit by airstrikes in the past. That airstrike may have taken place on June 4.
Another airstrike, blamed on Israel, was reported overnight on June 7 in the morning. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said some eight warheads fired by “unidentified drones” hit an area near Deir Ezzor. The targets were Afghan and Iraqi Shi’ite militias at the “Meizileh base,” reports said.
Iran has been moving its advisers, which Magnier say number a few hundred, to Syrian-regime bases. This would protect them ostensibly because airstrikes would be less likely to hit them there. If there were airstrikes, then the Syrian regime would respond, and this “would most likely drag the US into the battle to support its ally Israel and have an impact on the forthcoming elections,” Magnier wrote.
Russia plays a key role because it is coordinating with Israel, he wrote, adding: “It was agreed between Israel and Russia that Moscow and [Russia’s airbase at] Khmeimim would be informed of the details of any strike.” Russia plays the middleman, in this view, not part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” but telling its Syrian-regime allies what is happening.
“Russia has informed Israeli leaders of this move by Iranian advisers and their presence among the Syrian army units,” Magnier wrote. “Russia warned Israel not to strike the Syrian army under any circumstances and informed them that the Iranian bases have been handed over to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah’s special-operations units, Radwan (Al-Ridwan), have not lost a battle in Syria, he wrote. However, the unit did suffer a setback at the hands of Turkey in Idlib in February and March, The Jerusalem Post reported on May 21.
Magnier’s article has a larger point. Hezbollah takes seriously the killing of its fighters, he wrote, adding: “Israel’s drones make sure these locations are free of Iranian advisers and that the Russian warning reaches those concerned to evacuate human personnel... Israel follows the same practice when it attacks Hezbollah cars or trucks, warning drivers and passengers in advance.”
Warning missiles are fired, the report said.
But after an incident in Beirut in August 2019 involving drones, Hezbollah sought to retaliate, and it wants to show it has deterrence. Hezbollah has stockpiled missiles and precision guidance and “drones, land-attack long-range all-weather subsonic cruise missiles… long-range anti-ship missiles” and other munitions, Magnier wrote.
Hezbollah believes it has a deterrent and “new rules of engagement” that protect its men in Syria. Nevertheless, wars can start by mistake, the article concludes.

No Easy Sailing
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/June 08/2020
In an interview, Amer Bisat says a consensus is emerging that an IMF plan is Lebanon’s only way of securing foreign funding.
Amer Bisat is a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock where he heads the Sovereign and Emerging Markets (alpha) investment team. Prior to BlackRock, he held portfolio management responsibilities at UBS and Morgan Stanley and between 1991 and 1998 he was a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he helped negotiate high-profile programs with Russia, Ukraine, and Egypt. Bisat has taught graduate level economics at Columbia University from where he received a Ph.D. Recently, Carnegie published an article that Bisat coauthored with Ishac Diwan and Marcel Cassard, in which they discussed the likely trajectory of Lebanon’s negotiations with the IMF. Diwan interviewed Bisat in early June to get his perspective on the broad lines of a possible reform plan for Lebanon.
Michael Young: The Lebanese government is in the midst of negotiating an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. How optimistic should we be about its success?
Amer Bisat: Cautiously optimistic. The political class seems to “get” how severe the crisis is, and an admittedly weak consensus is emerging that an IMF program is a prerequisite for unlocking much-needed foreign funding. In parallel, in the post Covid-19 world, the IMF itself is eager to help poorer countries and has recently made it easier for countries to access funding from the organization. Incentives on both sides are aligned.
But, important as an agreement is, it won’t be easy sailing. First, the size of the IMF’s financial support will likely be smaller than desired. IMF funding is linked to the ambitiousness of the underlying economic program. The Lebanese government can, and will, ask for “exceptional access”—meaning outsized financial support. However, to receive it, Lebanon must undertake measures that have, so far, been almost impossible to implement.
Second, the IMF will not accept promises. It will want concrete actions. Related to this, it will not accept government decrees, but will want laws. Parliamentary involvement—with all its political implications—will become necessary. Finally, IMF funding will not come in one go. It will be staggered. The first disbursement will be made after “prior actions” are taken, but after that the IMF will expect another set of measures to be implemented over the subsequent two years. Monies will be disbursed on a quarterly basis after the IMF staff reviews progress. IMF programs that falter do so because these reviews fail.
MY: Lebanon’s recession has been wrenching and the social impact debilitating. When will it end?
AB: The country is, tragically, facing a perfect storm of problems. First, countries that faced similar crises to the ones that Lebanon is experiencing have taken, on average, a year to exit from a recession. And that included countries that experienced less severe crises than Lebanon’s and, importantly, managed their situation infinitely better than the Lebanese authorities are doing at present.
Second, the Covid-19 shock is epic. Even once a vaccine is discovered, the process of reemploying shed labor and reviving closed businesses will be slow.
Finally, the economic crisis and the Covid-19 shock are occurring at a time when oil prices are collapsing. This will result in a sharp drop in remittances, tourism, and financial flows from Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
What does that mean for Lebanon? The authorities are assuming a 12 percent contraction in 2020. I’m afraid that number will prove to be far too optimistic. The recession, moreover, is very likely to extend into 2021, where I am tentatively penciling in an additional mid-single digit contraction. What happens afterward is less certain. Much depends on the steps being implemented today. If the stabilization-reform program being discussed with the IMF succeeds, we can look for a nice “V” shaped recovery starting in 2022. If not, alas, it is more realistic to think in terms of an L-shaped economy where the collapse does come to an end, but the recovery is muted or even nonexistent for years to come.
MY: So, if the recession is long-lasting, is it too early to start thinking about the future of Lebanon’s economy?
AB: It’s never too early. Actions taken today will influence what the “new Lebanese economy” eventually looks like. That said, I personally come from a tradition of economists who think policymakers should avoid micromanaging economies. Centrally deciding which sectors should be supported, and which ones shouldn’t, is not only tough to do, it also opens the door to corruption and rent-seeking activities.
Instead, I would rather see Lebanese policymakers lay the foundation for a healthy economy. This includes eliminating the debt overhang, reforming public finances, implementing monetary policy that results in low inflation, manageable interest rates and, crucially, a competitive foreign exchange. It also includes rebuilding the banking sector, reforming the regulatory framework to allow efficient—but fair—private sector competition, and ensuring a generous, but affordable, social safety net. If the policymakers succeed in enshrining this kind of macro and regulatory framework, Lebanon’s entrepreneurial and skilled private sector will, organically, figure out the areas where it can excel and prosper.
MY: The Association of Lebanese Banks (ABL) has presented a plan that is meant to be an alternative to the government’s. What are your thoughts about it?
AB: Let me start by making a broad point. Banks are, and will continue to be, important stakeholders. Demonizing them, as has become common, is counterproductive. They certainly share part of the blame for Lebanon’s situation, but they aren’t the only culprits. Compromise must be at the core of a sustainable solution to Lebanon’s economic crisis. The ABL plan is a thoughtful document that contains important elements worthy of discussion and analysis.
That said, my main issue with it is that it effectively proposes that state assets be used primarily to save bank shareholders from taking a financial hit. That is clearly inappropriate. State asset usage does have a role in helping to facilitate a soft landing in an economy. But bank capital must be the “first loss.” Only afterward should state assets be used to reduce the burden on depositors.
MY: On that note, usage of state assets is a hotly debated topic. Where do you stand on this?
AB: We cannot only focus on government debt and ignore the asset side of its balance sheet. The size of the financial sector problem is so large that one cannot reject the use of state assets. If those aren’t used, we’ll experience a deeper recession, a larger devaluation, and a bigger deposit bail-in. But any serious plan involving state assets should thoughtfully consider equity considerations (who benefits and who doesn’t), modalities such as outright sale versus securitization and better efficiency, and, most importantly, governance issues.
MY: If the crisis proves to be a multiyear affair, what will be the fate of depositors during that period?
AB: A dose of reality is in order. The hole in the financial sector is gargantuan. The government plan estimates the gap at $53 billion—and, realistically, this may well prove to be an understatement. That gap must be filled or else the country will endure extended capital controls, deposit freezes, and a so-called “zombie” banking system.
How should this hole be filled? The imagery I like to use is of a ladder. One starts from the bottom and moves up. The first thing is to “responsibly” postpone as much of the problem as is feasible—the technical term for this is “regulatory forbearance.” If that is insufficient, bank owners will have to forego their capital, and bring in fresh capital from abroad. The next step on the ladder is for the state to bring some of its own assets into the mix. If all of this is still not enough, then sadly one needs to climb to the top of the ladder—in other words to depositors. Unfortunately, given the size of the hole in Lebanon, that last step seems inevitable. The notion that depositors won’t be affected is unrealistic.
The timing, method, and magnitude of how depositors are “bailed in” won’t be known until a broader financial sector restructuring plan is announced. One idea that some people, including myself, have been advocating is to segment the financial sector into “good” banks and one “bad” bank. Small depositors would be transferred to the former and would, within a relatively short period of time, gain access to their savings. Crucially, the “good” banks can start servicing the economy immediately.
By contrast, larger depositors would be assigned to the “bad” bank and would see their savings frozen until the impaired assets—sovereign debt and banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban, Lebanon’s central bank—are restructured. State assets can, in theory, be used to bolster the “bad” bank, in that way reducing the eventual burden on large depositors.
MY: In a recent essay, you introduced the notion that a gradual solution to the Lebanese crisis may be more efficient and achievable than the radical solution many are hoping for. Can you elaborate?
AB: My starting point is that the size of the problem is stunningly large. There are no easy solutions and painless measures are nowhere near enough. Policies that can make a difference are either unbearably painful or sociopolitically impossible to implement in today’s Lebanon. More fundamentally, the kind of wealth destruction needed to immediately rebalance the economy will create instantaneous impoverishment. Without wading too much into political-economic territory, one must worry about the implications of such an economic collapse on a country with deep sectarian fissures and patterns of violent civil strife.
All this is why I’ve been advocating a gradual approach. If policy levers are painful and seemingly sociopolitically impossible to pursue, shouldn’t policymakers be considering an alternative plan? Isn’t there space for a less aggressive approach to crisis management—one that doesn’t try for perfection but garners just enough political and social backing to avoid a complete collapse?
Lest there be any confusion, I am not blind to the gradualist approach’s downsides. They’re major. It will prolong the adjustment, keep capital controls in place for longer than is desired, and possibly require a larger devaluation. However, the gradualist approach has the major advantage of being sociopolitically more palatable. It would also buy the nation time while awaiting oil and gas revenues or the possibility of a changed regional outlook, or both. Most optimistically, it gives civil society a few more years to organize and prepare to contest the next parliamentary elections, with the hope that then a more profound transformation can begin.

We banned Hezbollah activities in Germany. Now it’s the EU’s turn.
Christoph Bernstiel/Al Arabiya/June 08/2020
كريستوفر برنستيل: نحن منعنا انشطة حزب الله في ألمانيا والآن جاء دور الإتحاد الأوروبي ليفعل نفس الشيء
The risk of being injured, or even killed, by an anti-Semitic or extremist attack in Germany has grown over the last few years. For the German government, it is important to take a clear and decisive stance against such developments.
This is precisely what we have now done in parliament, by banning the activities of Hezbollah. Anti-Semitism is not tolerated and terrorist activities are not acceptable in Germany under any circumstances. Taking action against an organization like Hezbollah, with its extremist and openly anti-Semitic positions, is therefore a logical step.
Though Hezbollah has so far not carried out any attacks on German soil, we have of course noticed the way in which this organization is spreading violence and terror across the whole world - including the Muslim world - and exploiting Germany as a supposedly safe haven. Our security authorities have been keeping a close eye on the organization for some time. Numerous measures have been implemented in recent years to diminish Hezbollah’s influence in Germany.
For example, mosque and cultural associations where its supporters were active have been observed. In 2008, Germany banned the Hezbollah TV channel Al Manar. The channel broadcasted hate propaganda and anti-Israel content, intended among other things to radicalize Muslims in Germany.
In 2014, a fundraising association claiming to be collecting donations for orphans in Lebanon was banned and dissolved, since the money raised was being channeled to a Hezbollah martyrs fund. Last December, the German parliament, known as the Bundestag, finally called on the federal government to take even stronger action against Hezbollah and for its activities to be banned.
This uncompromising approach to Hezbollah could be described as a correction of the course previously taken as Germany had endeavoured for many years to act as a mediator in negotiations between Lebanon and the State of Israel. Hezbollah still wields a very strong influence on politics and society in Lebanon. Germany believed that its readiness to engage in dialogue could help build stability there.
Yet it became clear that Hezbollah repeatedly exploited this willingness to make concessions in order to carry out attacks or plan terrorist activities. Germany therefore reached the conclusion that the time for negotiations and warnings had gone on long enough.
A ban on the activities of Hezbollah was thus announced in Germany on April 30, 2020. On the same day, buildings used by four mosque associations and their leaders were searched. This was the last step in a series of measures and decisions and a clear signal that Hezbollah’s activities in Germany would no longer be tolerated.
At the same time, there is a growing understanding at European level of the need to take stronger and more rigorous action against Hezbollah in order to successfully counter its terrorist activities. At present, not only Germany, but also the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, and we can expect further states to follow suit. In addition, the distinction between the political and military wings may well be abolished at European level.
Together with many of my Bundestag colleagues, I am currently supporting a campaign by the American Jewish Committee in this context and am lobbying actively for the European Union to classify Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organization. All of these activities are already having an impact and ratcheting up the pressure on Hezbollah. Yet there is still a long and stony road to travel until this organization no longer has the capacity to carry out attacks. Luckily, we are able to count on many partners in the Middle East on this path, such as Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
*Christoph Bernstiel is a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and was directly elected to the German Bundestag by the 72nd district of Halle (Saale) in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt in 2017. He is a member of the committee for Homeland Security, where he focuses on cybercrime, and the select committee on artificial intelligence. Mr. Bernstiel is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the federal foundation for the evaluation of the SED dictatorship, deputy chairman of the CDU State Group Saxony-Anhalt in the Bundestag, a member of the parliamentary group for small and medium businesses, and a member of the Future Forum Public Security. In addition to his duties at the federal level, Mr. Bernstiel has been a member of the Halle (Saale) city council since 2014 where he focuses on the topics of urban development, infrastructure, order, and security.

Hezbollah dragging Lebanon closer to new civil war
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 08/2020.
دانيا قليلات: حزب الله يجر لبنان إلى حافة الحرب الأهلية
Activists in Lebanon called on citizens to take to the streets at the weekend and finish the mission they started on Oct. 17 last year. The manifesto of the “October Meeting” — a more or less unitary body representing the protesters — highlighted three “nos.” No to a government that behaves like a farm, no to a state that acts like the politicians’ private company, and no to a state that is used as plunder by the politicians. The protesters were faced by Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement. They felt threatened as the demands of the protesters could endanger their grip on the state. The confrontation resulted in armed clashes. The clashes died down, but if this trend is not contained it might threaten another civil war.
The protesters want a total break from the previous system. They have lost trust in the presidency, government and parliament. They have instead asked for a transitional government that reflects the spirit of Oct. 17. The activists’ statement even detailed what they expect from the transitional government. The first demand is for the transitional government to design and implement an economic rescue plan. Secondly, they want it to prepare for free elections under the supervision of an independent committee, according to a new law. The third mandate of the interim government would be to put in place laws that guarantee the independence of the judiciary. The fourth demand is for it to restore stolen funds and put corrupt politicians on trial. The last demand is for the government to adopt a neutral foreign policy that will shield Lebanon from Middle Eastern competition and prevent the country from getting embroiled in regional conflicts.
Hezbollah saw in these demands a veiled threat to remove its arms and hence to deprive it of its competitive edge over other factions. Its members pledged that no one would be able to take away the group’s arms. They went on to the streets with their light weaponry to show their might and determination in facing the peaceful protesters. However, this prompted a reaction from other antagonistic factions and groups carrying the flag of the Lebanese forces stood in Ain Al-Remmaneh, a Christian area adjacent to Hezbollah stronghold Chiyah, and denounced Hasan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah’s use of a sectarian and provocative slogan incited a partisan response on the other side. If the country takes this road, it can have another civil war. Lebanon is in a region that is sinking into a series of proxy wars. The factions antagonistic to Hezbollah could very easily find outside backers who would be ready to arm and fund them. Though a large number of activists are mature and know that a war will not solve Lebanon’s problems — but on the contrary will lead to more destruction — other factions feel that the country is already destroyed and only through arms can they stand up to Hezbollah.
The country is in a very delicate situation. Even President Michel Aoun, who has largely been in a state of denial, asked for a return to peace and for parties to refrain from provoking one another. In this case, as I have mentioned in previous articles, the army is the only unifying institution that can bring people together. The army still has the trust of the people. It has the moral authority and can impose order once it is in charge. However, in Lebanon, the military is under civilian control, hence the control of the corrupt political elite that has lost the trust of the people.
It is unlikely that the president will take the patriotic decision of stepping down and letting the army take control. He will not do anything that will jeopardize the chances of Gebran Bassil, his son-in-law and the apple of his eye, clinching the presidency after him. Though Bassil was recently voted on social media as the most hated personality in Lebanon, Aoun still thinks he can impose him on the Lebanese people.
However, there is hope in Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Unlike Aoun, he does not have a following and knows very well that his position is only meant to fill in a blank, rather than to conduct an active role. He might take a patriotic position and bow to the protesters’ pressure. If that is the case, he should declare a state of emergency in which the army takes control, and then resign. The swift and tight control by the army of any armed factions on the streets would ensure that the country does not slip into the chaos of a civil war.
Even President Michel Aoun, who has largely been in a state of denial, asked for a return to peace.
Rightly, the protesters asked for the removal of non-legitimate weapons, mainly meaning those of Hezbollah. Former Justice Minister Ashraf Riffi appeared on several news outlets asking for the enforcement of UN Security Council resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias in Lebanon. However, this radical demand might push Hezbollah to feel this is a do-or-die moment and so start a confrontation in a bid to protect its arms. If this happens, it would be the start of another civil war. A better alternative would be to call for the demilitarization of Beirut, hence confining Hezbollah’s arms to the south of the country. Then they could not be used against their fellow citizens.
Better than asking for the full enforcement of resolution 1559 would be for the protesters to ask Hezbollah to stick to its original mandate, which is that of a defensive force against Israel. In the current situation, where Lebanon is close to slipping into a new civil war, two people have the ability to prevent it from going down this path: The prime minister and the commander of the army.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 08-09/2020
WHO Says Coronavirus Situation 'Worsening' Worldwide
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 08/2020
The World Health Organization said Monday that the coronavirus pandemic situation i worsening around the globe, warning against complacency. "Although the situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual news conference in Geneva.

Pompeo warning as US sanctions imposed on Iranian shipping network over proliferation
Reuters, Washington/Tuesday 09 June 2020
US sanctions imposed on Iran's shipping network took effect on Monday, months after they were announced in December following accusations of supporting proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement on Monday warned commercial and maritime industries, governments and others that they risked US sanctions if they did business with the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and its Shanghai-based subsidiary, E-Sail Shipping Company.
The State Department had announced the designations in December but allowed a delay for them to take effect, giving time for exporters of humanitarian goods to Iran to find different shipping methods, according to the statement.
“These designations serve as a clear warning that anyone doing business with or otherwise supporting IRISL or E-Sail are exposed to potential sanctions and risk contributing to Iran’s proliferation-sensitive programs, including its nuclear and missile programs,” Pompeo said in the statement. He also asked governments around the world to investigate activity by the shipping entities in their ports and seas, encouraging them to take appropriate action to stop the activity.
The State Department accused IRISL of repeatedly transporting items related to Iran’s ballistic missile and military programs, as well as other proliferation-sensitive items. In December, Pompeo said E-Sail Shipping Company “knowingly transports illicit materials from Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization, which oversees all of Iran's missile industry” and has worked with Iranian organizations subject to UN sanctions.

Iran MPs chant ‘death to America’ to show ‘respect’ for US George Floyd protests
Yaghoub Fazeli/Al Arabiya English/Monday 08 June 2020
Iranian lawmakers chanted “death to America” during a parliamentary session on Sunday, claiming they were “in support” of the protests against racism in the US.
The death of George Floyd, a black man, on May 25 in Minneapolis, Minnesota at the hands of a white police officer who kneeled on his neck for more than eight minutes triggered nationwide protests in the US over racial injustice.
“To show respect for the movement of the oppressed in the US, I ask you to stand for a few seconds and chant ‘death to America’ to show our respect,” an Iranian lawmaker said, after which lawmakers stood up and began chanting “death to America” in parliament.
Hypocrisy
Iran has been accused of hypocrisy in its reception of the protests in the US.
The Islamic Republic often expresses support for protesters in non-friendly countries despite its long track record of violence against protesters at home over the years. Iranians launched a hashtag in recent days against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after he attacked the US government for the police killing of Floyd, reminding him of the Iranians killed under the current regime over the years and arguing that he and other Iranian officials are not in a position to speak against state violence in other countries given the Iranian regime’s track record of violence against its own citizens. Security forces killed about 1,500 Iranians during the country’s anti-government protests last November, according to Reuters.

Missile hits near US base in Baghdad international airport, no casualties

Reuters, The Assocaited Press/Baghdad/Monday 08 June 2020
A missile landed in the perimeter of Baghdad International Airport on Monday, the Iraqi military said. The military said the missile was launched from an area to the south of the airport and there were no reported damages or casualties. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. Baghdad’s airport also includes a military base frequented by US troops. Security forces have initiated a search operation to uncover the perpetrators, the statement said. An Iraqi security official said the rocket struck close to the headquarters of the US-led coalition.
The attack is the first to target the airport since May 6 when three katyusha rockets struck near its military sector. That attack did not cause any casualties. The rockets had struck close to Iraqi forces at the military airport, another near Camp Cropper, once a US detention facility, and the last near to where US forces are stationed at the base. The US has accused Iran-backed militias of carrying out such attacks in the past. Several attacks targeted US interests early in March, including three military bases known to house US troops. The US-led coalition has withdrawn from several bases across Iraq in a planned drawdown.

US military plane crashes into Iraqi base, no fatalities reported

The Associated Press/Tuesday 09 June 2020
A US military plane crashed into an Iraqi military base north of the capital on Monday without causing fatalities, the US-led coalition said. Separately, a rocket landed on the periphery of Baghdad airport, the Iraqi military said, without providing further details. There were no reported casualties or damages. The crash of the C130 in Iraq’s Camp Taji injured four servicemen and was deemed an accident, spokesman for the US-led coalition Myles Caggins told the Associated Press. Caggins said the plane had overshot the runway and crashed into a wall resulting in damage to the aircraft and a small fire.
“Four service members on the plane sustained non-life-threatening injuries and are being treated at Camp Taji’s medical facility,” Caggins said in a statement after the incident. “Enemy activity is not suspected; the incident remains under investigation.”There were seven crew members and 26 passengers aboard the flight, Iraqi official said. Among the injured were two pilots. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. In March, two Americans and one British soldier were killed following a barrage of rockets on Camp Taji.

Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia to resume giant Nile dam talks Tuesday
AFP/Monday 08 June 2020
Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia will resume negotiations on Tuesday over the filling of a controversial mega-dam Addis Ababa is building over the Nile, Khartoum said. Irrigation and water ministers from the three Nile basin countries will meet via videoconference, Sudan’s irrigation ministry said in a statement.
“Three observers from the United States, the European Union and South Africa will attend,” it added. Planned as Africa’s largest hydroelectric installation, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile has been a source of tension with Egypt ever since Ethiopia broke ground on the project in 2011.
Following nine years of stalled negotiations, the United States and the World Bank sponsored talks from November 2019 aimed at reaching an agreement between the three riparian states. In May, Egypt announced it was re-entering talks over the filling of the dam’s 74 billion cubic meter reservoir, in order “to reach a fair, balanced and comprehensive agreement.” Earlier in May, Sudan had rejected an Ethiopian proposal to sign an initial agreement greenlighting the filling of the reservoir, citing outstanding “legal and technical problems. Both Khartoum and Cairo fear the 145-metre-high dam will threaten their essential water supplies once the reservoir starts being filled in July as planned by Addis Ababa. But while Egypt worries about its share of the Nile, upon which it depends for most of its water, Sudan hopes the dam could provide much-needed electricity and help regulate flooding. The 6,600-kilometer-long (3,900-mile) Nile is a lifeline supplying both water and electricity to the 10 countries it traverses. Its main tributaries, the White and Blue Niles, converge in the Sudanese capital Khartoum before flowing north through Egypt to drain into the Mediterranean Sea.

Erdogan, Trump Agree 'Close Cooperation' on Libya
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 08/2020
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump agreed to "continue their close cooperation" on Libya in telephone talks on Monday, the Turkish presidency said. Ankara supports Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and has stepped up military support to Tripoli against warlord Khalifa Haftar. The United States officially backs the GNA, but Haftar is supported by Washington's allies Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. "The two leaders agreed to continue their close cooperation to promote peace and stability in Libya, Turkey's maritime neighbor," the presidency said. Turkey has helped the GNA, with drones and air defense systems, inflict a series of battlefield setbacks in recent weeks on Haftar's forces who have been fighting to take Tripoli since April last year. Libya's Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj was in Ankara last week, where he said his forces were "determined" to take over the entire country from his rival Haftar. Last month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the flow of weapons into Libya and urged a ceasefire during a call with Sarraj.

Democrats Take a Knee in U.S. Congress in George Floyd Tribute

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 08/2020
Democratic lawmakers knelt in silent tribute to George Floyd in the U.S. Congress on Monday before unveiling a package of sweeping police reforms in response to the killing of African Americans by law enforcement.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer were joined by some two dozen lawmakers in Emancipation Hall -- named in honor of the slaves who helped erect the U.S. Capitol in the 18th century.
They knelt for eight minutes and 46 seconds to mark the length of time a white police officer pinned his knee on the neck of the 46-year-old Floyd, whose May 25 death in Minneapolis unleashed protests against racial injustice across America.
The Democrats said their bill aimed to create "meaningful, structural change that safeguards every Americans' right to safety and equal justice."The legislation seeks to "end police brutality, hold police accountable (and) improve transparency in policing," a statement said.
Pelosi, who like other kneeling lawmakers was draped in a colorful Kente cloth scarf that pays homage to black Americans' African heritage, spoke afterward of the "martyrdom of George Floyd" and the grief over black men and women killed at the hands of police. "This movement of national anguish is being transformed into a movement of national action," she said. The Justice and Policing Act, introduced in both chambers of Congress, would make it easier to prosecute officers for abuse and rethink how they are recruited and trained. Its chance of passage in the Senate, where Republicans hold the majority, is highly uncertain. Donald Trump, who is running for re-election in November, has cast himself as the law-and-order president and accuses Joe Biden, his Democratic rival for the White House, of seeking to defund police forces. "The Radical Left Democrats want to Defund and Abandon our Police. Sorry, I want LAW & ORDER!" he tweeted on Monday. The former vice president has not made any public statements supporting the defunding of law enforcement. His campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement that Biden "supports the urgent need for reform" including funding community policing programs that improve relationships between officers and residents and help avert unjustifiable deaths. Biden, who has said he believes the nation is at "an inflection point" given the magnitude of the protests, was traveling Monday to Houston to meet Floyd's family.
'We hear you' The policing legislation, introduced by Congressional Black Caucus Chair Karen Bass and two black senators, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, would ban the use of choke holds and mandate the use of dashboard cameras and body cameras for federal officers. It mandates broad training reforms and would establish a misconduct registry to prevent fired officers moving to another jurisdiction without any accountability. "A profession where you have the power to kill should be a profession that requires highly trained officers who are accountable to the public," Bass told reporters. Lawmakers expressed solidarity with the countless Americans who have taken to the streets in protest against police brutality and racial injustice. "Black lives matter. The protests we've seen in recent days are an expression of rage and one of despair," House Democrat Steny Hoyer said.
"Today Democrats in the House and Senate are saying: 'We see you, we hear you, we are acting.'"

Air Strikes Break Truce in Opposition Towns in Syria's Idlib
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Military jets bombed several villages in opposition-held northwestern Syria on Monday in the first such air strikes since a Turkish-Russian deal produced a ceasefire over three months ago that halted major fighting.
The strikes hit villages in the Jabal al-Zawiya region in the southern part of Idlib province and two towns in the Sahel al-Ghab plain, west of Hama province, witnesses said. Hundreds of civilians fled, fearing a wider resumption of air strikes in Syria's last opposition bastion, the witnesses said.
The deal brokered in March between Russia, which backs Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad's forces, and Turkey, which supports opposition fighters, ended fighting that had displaced over a million people in three months in the region which borders Turkey. But the deal holds less sway over hardline extremists who control large parts of Idlib province. Civil defense groups said two civilians and several others were injured in strikes conducted by Russian jets that flew at high altitudes, according to a network of plane spotters who document sightings of jet fighters.
Mainstream opposition sources said they suspected the strikes were against militant hideouts in parts of territory where Ankara has now established a major military presence since the Russian-backed Syrian army offensive began in earnest earlier this year. A Syrian army source told state media that militants attacked two army outposts in the Sahel al-Ghab plain and seized them, but were later repelled. It did not refer to any aerial strikes.

Turkey Uses Iraqi ISIS Members to Operate in Syria

Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Detailed information about a battalion comprised of dozens of Iraqi ISIS elements operating in Syria has been provided by reliable sources to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The battalion, which is headquartered in Syria’s al-Bab and consists of nearly 40 Iraqi members, operates under the Ahrar al-Sharqiyah faction and works for Turkish intelligence. According to the sources, it is tasked with carrying out assassinations and bombings and spying on foreign ISIS members, who attempt to flee to Turkish territory and are hiding in the Aleppo countryside, before later imprisoning them. Some have been killed, while others were taken to Turkey in return for large sums of money. A deal was also reached to send some jailed members to Libya to fight alongside the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, the sources told the Observatory. The battalion operates a notorious prison in al-Bab and is led by Abu Waqqas al-Iraqi, who moves freely between Turkey and Aleppo’s eastern countryside. “Abu Waqqas travels comfortably between Turkey and Aleppo countryside, and he appeared in a picture taken in the Turkish province of Sanlıurfa documenting his meeting with ISIS Commander Abu Osama al-Tayanah,” said the sources. They pointed out that Abu Waqqas has been laying low for nearly two months now. It it is not yet known whether he had traveled to Libya to fight for the GNA or headed to Egypt with large sums of money in his possession, as Abu Hudhayfah al-Hamawi did. Abu Hudhayfah, a former commander of the Ahrar Al-Sham, had fled to Egypt after stealing large sums of money from the then newly-founded Ahrar al-Sharqiyah faction. “The Iraqi battalion has recently transferred inmates from its prison in al-Bab to Idlib city, where they were received by Abu Ali al-Iraqi, a commander in Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham,” revealed the sources. Among the transferees are Tunisians Belal al-Shawashi and Abu Al-Waleed, Iraqi national, Abu Usama, and Egyptians, all of whom were ISIS commanders.
Sources said the Iraqi battalion buries its victims in a mass grave on the outskirts of Susanbat village along the al-Bab and al-Ra’i road in Aleppo’s northeastern countryside. It has killed nearly 300 civilians, military members and ISIS fighters and buried them in its mass grave, the Observatory was told.

Jordan Thwarts Terrorist Plot to Target Security Site

Amman- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
The Jordanian State Security Court (military court) revealed, through its trials, thwarting a third terrorist plot targeting a security site in Irbid early February.
The Kingdom’s General Intelligence Directorate (GID) arrested members of a terrorist cell who were planning to target a security center in Irbid governorate, 80 km northern the capital, Amman. According to the daily Alrai official newspaper, three defendants attempted to join the ISIS terrorist organization in Sinai, but they failed because roads were not safe back then. According to the indictment, the three defendants were friends, pointing out that the first defendant remained the link between the two others. “After ISIS’s emergence in Iraq and Syria in 2014, the first defendant started following its news and publications through internet channels until he was convinced of its ideology and became one of its supporters,” the indictment read, adding that he believed it is applying the correct Islamic Sharia and pledged his allegiance. The first defendant wanted ISIS to gain more support, so he started promoting their ideas among his family members and friends and was able to convince the second defendant to join the organization by keeping him updated on its news and publications and providing him with a book on militant thought. Both defendants kept promoting the terrorist organization and exchanging news and publications. In 2017, the first defendant was able to convince the third of ISIS’s ideology by using the same method he used with the second defendant, until he also pledged allegiance. They then decided to join ISIS ranks and agreed to travel to Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt as tourists, so they won’t be revealed, and then move to Sinai. However, the second defendant communicated with one of the organization’s elements via Telegram and was informed that roads were not safe then. Fearing they might be caught by the Egyptian army, all three defendants postponed their plan. In 2019, the second defendant decided to start carrying out terrorist operations in Jordan in support of the organization.
Discussing the plot with the first defendant, both agreed to target Irbid Northern Security Center. Yet, the third defendant rejected this plot and insisted on joining ISIS ranks abroad. On Feb 3, Jordan’s security services arrested both defendants and thwarted their terrorist plot, and it arrested the third defendant in late February. Researcher and expert on terrorism affairs Dr. Saud Al-Sharafat said that the three operations with which the State Security Court resumed its sessions after courts resumed following the lockdown, indicate that the operations are recent.
He stressed in statements to Asharq Al-Awsat that the nature of the organization's threat to the Kingdom’s security is not linked to its strength or weakness in Syria or Iraq. Sharafat pointed out that individuals are being influenced by the organization's ideas and are ready to enroll and be recruited through social media, which keeps the threat internally valid.

Tripoli Authorities Impose Total Curfew in Libya’s Southern Region

Cairo- Jamal Jawhar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
The Presidential Council of Libya’s Government of National Accord has imposed total curfew in the southern region to limit the coronavirus outbreak. It also extended on Saturday the curfew in western Libya’s cities for 10 extra days from 6 pm till 6 am, starting June 7. These decisions come in light of an increase in the number of infections, as the total number of cases amounted to 256, after recording 17 new cases from southern and western Libya. The Council stressed in its statement the importance of continued lockdown of mosques and supermarkets, as well as shops that do not provide basic services to citizens, including clothing and shoe stores, cafes, and restaurants. It highlighted the need for maintaining the ban on religious, national, and social gatherings and events. The National Center for Disease Control said the 17 announced cases include three in Tripoli, Sabha, and Sabratha, two for returnees from Nigeria and residing in Tripoli, one for a Chadian residing in Sabha and arrived from Sabratha, two for returnees from Moscow, and eight cases of those who had contact with infected people in Sabha, as well as a case for a Libyan residing in Misrata and arrived from Sabha. In a statement on Sabha, Sabha Municipality called on the Security Directorate and all police services to secure the city again and impose curfew to contain the rapidly infectious virus. “Fighting the epidemic is a national and legal duty for all the city’s residents,” it stressed. The Supreme Committee to Combat the Coronavirus Epidemic (SCCCE) has earlier recommended that all administrative institutions continue their work at a 10 percent rate from 9 am to 2 pm, highlighting the importance of taking all the precautionary measures to prevent all forms of gatherings. In this regard, Dr. Saada Boulifa, head of the Medical Advisory Committee’s medical team for awareness and prevention of the coronavirus in eastern Libya, has revealed an action plan aimed at launching educational programs in Benghazi. In a statement on Sunday, Boulifa said the medical team will soon implement the plan in malls, private dental clinics, and on patients in the third tower in Benghazi Medical Center, She stressed the importance of sustaining awareness programs on the dangers of the COVID-19, in light of the recent sharp rise in the number of infections in Libya’s western and southern regions.

German FM to Travel to Tel Aviv, Warn Netanyahu Against Annexation

Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s annexation plan, which is set to be implemented on July 1, appears to be facing major international and domestic opposition after Germany, Israel’s ally, warned against it. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is expected to travel to Israel Wednesday to warn that there will be consequences if Israeli leaders move forward with annexation plans in the occupied West Bank. Sources indicated that Maas intends to make it clear to Israel that a unilateral annexation will force Germany into choosing between its alliance with it and commitment to international law and EU values.
Maas will also meet with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, hold a conference call with the Palestinian leadership, and later travel to Jordan for talks with King Abdullah II. Germany, along with the United Nations and almost all EU countries, are trying to pressure Israel against annexing parts of the West Bank. A former Israeli diplomat indicated that Netanyahu's statements about going ahead with annexation plans in July embarrassed Germany, especially that on the same day Berlin will assume the presidency of both the EU and the UN’s Security Council. The UN, EU, and Arab League will adopt a series of resolutions against the annexation if Tel Aviv goes ahead with its plans, according to diplomatic sources in Tel Aviv. Aside from the US, not many countries will recognize the unilateral annexation, as was the case with the recognition of Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. Such annexation could lead to a number of sanctions on Israel. However, it might also change the way the world views settlements. The UN and the EU distinguish between Israel itself and the settlements in the occupied territories. They consider the settlements illegal, but that will no longer be possible if Tel Aviv declares that the territories are an integral part of it.The move threatens every cooperation with Israel even without the need to resort to sanctions, according to the source. A number of countries are preparing to respond to Israel’s annexation plans. A source at the Israeli embassy in Brussels reported that the EU is considering imposing sanctions such as banning Tel Aviv from participating in cooperation agreements. A number of Jewish and Arab groups protested Saturday against the annexation plans on the 53rd anniversary of the 1967 war. The police tried to block the rally in Tel Aviv but later granted it a permit, limiting the number of participants to 2,000 only. It also forced the organizers to remain in Rabin square. Some of the protesters waved Israeli and Palestinian flags, with several dozens holding up pictures of Iyad Halak, a Palestinian man with autism who was shot dead by police last week. US Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders addressed the march in a video message, saying: “I’m extremely heartened to see so many of you, Arabs and Jews alike, standing up for peace, justice and democracy.”Sanders asserted that the plans to annex any parts of the West Bank must be stopped and the occupation must be ended. “We must work together for a future of equality and dignity for all people in Israel and Palestine.”Also speaking via video message, Joint List leader Ayman Odeh said all Jews and Arabs who support peace and justice must oppose Netanyahu’s plan to enact Israeli sovereignty over some 30 percent of the West Bank. “Annexation is apartheid,” Odeh told the protesters, asserting that social justice can’t be achieved if the occupation is not ended. Lawmaker Nitzan Horowitz, the head of Meretz, described annexation as a war crime, “a crime against peace, a crime against humanity, a crime that will result in bloodshed.”Horowitz called out Gantz, Ashkenazi and Economy Minister Amir Peretz, accusing them of “raising their hands and crawling to the other side,” saying they were partners in this disaster.

Egyptian-Sudanese Rapprochement Intimidates Ethiopia
Cairo - Mohammed Abdo Hassanein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s annexation plan, which is se
An Egyptian-Sudanese rapprochement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) might “intimidate” Ethiopia and prevent it from starting to fill the dam’s reservoir in July. Addis Ababa insists on its plan to store 4.9 billion cubic meters of Nile waters in the reservoir despite objection from Khartoum and Cairo. Sudanese Foreign Minister Asma Mohamed Abdalla pointed out that Ethiopia has the right to build dams within its territories only in accordance with international conventions and the basic principles that have been agreed on by the three countries. “If Ethiopia is confronted by Khartoum and Cairo, it will think twice about filling the dam prior to an agreement,” Abdalla said. Sudan has rejected a proposal by Ethiopia to sign a partial bilateral agreement for the initial filling of the dam. Last week, the Sudanese government also sent a letter to the UN Security Council to insist on the importance of establishing a solid base for cooperation between the three countries based on their respective interests. Interviewed by Sudan TV on Saturday evening, Abdalla stressed that Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt shall sit for negotiation on the dam, indicating that Khartoum has always been calling for talks as the only solution to their differences. The minister praised the role of Washington’s mediation through the US Treasury and the World Bank in bridging the gap and bringing the views of the three countries closer. She expressed hope that the delegations of the three countries will engage in negotiations to reach solutions that are satisfactory for all. In the same TV interview, Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Yasser Abbas asserted that Sudan is a key party in the tripartite negotiations.
He said Ethiopia has the right to development but without causing any harm to the other parties.

Iraqi PM Starts Restructuring Administrative, Security Posts

Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 8 June, 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has announced plans to restructure positions in the premiership and the military after lawmakers approved the seven ministry posts that had remained vacant since he was sworn in last month.
The PM held Sunday the first session of his 22-member cabinet. Parliament allowed Kadhimi to create a new ministry of state and to choose its candidate from the Turkmen minority. Turkmen were pleased by the move. Their representative Arshad Salihi said this is a serious attempt to lift injustice against them.
However, such a move was rejected by Nouri Al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition, which considered the decision a legislative violation that lacks constitutional grounds. Iraqi sources said Kadhimi has chosen Judge Raed Jouhi as director in the premier’s office, a post that has significant political and executive powers. Jouhi was the Iraqi judge who had led the investigation with ousted Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in 2003. The PM also chose Lt. Gen. Abdul Ameer Rasheed Yarallah as Army Chief-of-Staff to replace Lt. Gen. Othman Al-Ghanmi. Yarallah is considered one of the main Iraqi commanders who led the battle against ISIS from 2014 until 2017, when Iraq announced its defeat of the terrorist organization. “Now that the cabinet lineup is complete, the Iraqis are waiting for the government to fight corruption,” Izzat Shahbandar, an independent Iraqi politician, told Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday. Al-Nasr Coalition, headed by former PM Haidar al-Abadi, declared its support for Kadhimi’s government despite its strong reservations on the quotas. “The new government’s success depends on its performance during the transitional phase, topped by holding fair elections, restricting arms to the state, imposing the rule of law, meeting the demands of peaceful protesters, and punishing the perpetrators of attacks on demonstrators,” the Coalition said in a statement.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 08-09/2020
Iran Between Procrastination, Sabotaging and Nuclear Proliferation
Charles Elias Chartouni/June 08/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني: إيران بين التسويف والتخريب وانتشار الأسلحة النووية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/87087/charles-elias-chartouni-iran-between-procrastination-sabotaging-and-nuclear-proliferation-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a/
The conventional tools of Iranian foreign policy are seizing upon the ongoing American travails to perpetuate its circumvention tactics, Middle Eastern subversion politics and nuclear sanctuarization.
Its late political course was predicated on the eventual reelection of Donald Trump, whereas, the actual political dynamics in the US are blurring the lines, and opening up the political repertoire, in case Donald Trump gets defeated in the forthcoming elections.
President Trump, in an obvious attempt to boost his re-election credentials, extends an invitation to Iran to reengage the negotiation process (after the late prisoners exchange), and the Iranian regime demonstrates its disinclination on account of the uncertainties of the forthcoming US presidential elections.
A realistic assessment of the eventual scenarios developing on the heels of a long hauled conflict should set down its markers and move beyond delusions and false expectations: the Iranian regime is unlikely to engage any normalization scenario for internal considerations which equate international normalization with internal liberalization, and henceforth, its willingness to reengage the international community is inherently tainted by ambiguity.
The nuclear accord was painstakingly negotiated by a chivvied Iranian diplomacy, saddled with shadowy commitments and symmetric sabotaging politics, which instrumentalized it to launch an overall destabilization strategy throughout the larger Middle East. The unraveling of the normalization dynamic started under Obama and came to completion under Trump, and is unlikely to be reviewed under Joe Biden, if ever elected.
The waffling modus operandi of Iranian Mullahs is no coincidence, it’s the expression of an embedded religious ethos, the double speak of a cynical and totalitarian dictatorship, the hazards of geopolitics, and the undermined legitimacy of a failed State. One should not be fooled by false projections associated to power rotation in Washington-DC, and any future policy course should be framed on the crossroads between the ongoing sanctions and a well crafted diplomacy, to checkmate the deliberate equivocations of deceitful statecraft.

What the New York Times Never Told Readers About Sirajuddin Haqqani
Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/June 08/2020
Senior Fellow and Senior Editor of FDD's Long War Journal
Revisiting the op-ed the paper published by the deputy emir of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Sen. Tom Cotton argued in an op-ed for the New York Times on Wednesday that the Trump administration should deploy the U.S. military to American cities to quell a series of riots. The newspaper’s decision to publish Cotton’s opinion immediately sparked controversy, as some of the newspaper’s employees and many on social media objected. Putting aside that rancor, it is worth revisiting an op-ed published in February that did not receive nearly as much condemnation. That piece was attributed to Sirajuddin Haqqani, a notorious terror kingpin in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan who has been allied with al-Qaeda for many years. Today, Haqqani is the deputy emir of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a totalitarian regime the jihadists have been fighting to resurrect ever since it was toppled by the U.S. and its allies in late 2001.
I note that the piece was attributed to Haqqani, because there are good reasons to suspect he didn’t actually write it. The language employed (including phrases such as “recurring disquiet”) demonstrates a suspiciously refined knowledge of English that Haqqani, a non-native speaker, hasn’t displayed elsewhere throughout his lengthy career.
Even if Haqqani did write the piece, there is much the New York Times should have told readers about him when publishing it. I previously published a summary of Sirajuddin Haqqani’s longstanding, close-knit relationship with al-Qaeda for The Dispatch.
One thing worth noting, in light of the Times saying in response to Cotton’s op-ed that it would be expanding its fact-check operations (and Cotton’s description of the editing process he went through), is that Haqqani’s piece claims that the Taliban wants a system “where the rights of women that are granted by Islam—from the right to education to the right to work—are protected.” As anyone who has seriously studied the Taliban knows, that is a deceptive way of appealing to a Western audience. The rights “granted by Islam” to women, according to the Taliban’s sharia (or Islamic law), are a far cry from what the Times’s audience would find acceptable. Yet, this wordplay made it through the paper’s fact-checking process without any clarification.
The fact-checkers also didn’t inform readers that Sirajuddin Haqqani’s dossier is filled with al-Qaeda ties. The evidence comes from many sources, including first-hand witnesses, official terror designations, press reporting, terrorist media, and files captured in Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad, Pakistan compound in May 2011.
No one can seriously argue that Sirajuddin Haqqani isn’t an al-Qaeda man.
Yet there is no mention of al-Qaeda, let alone a renunciation of the group, in the New York Times op-ed attributed to Sirajuddin.
Some have seized upon the author’s mention of “disruptive groups” as an indication of his willingness to distance the Taliban from al-Qaeda. But as is so often the case these days, that is putting words in the Taliban’s mouth. That phrase could easily refer to the Islamic State’s presence. And if Sirajuddin wanted to specifically disavow al-Qaeda, he could easily do so. The Taliban regularly publishes statements and videos in several languages. The last time Sirajuddin appeared in a production discussing al-Qaeda was in a December 2016 video celebrating the Taliban’s historic alliance with Osama bin Laden and his group. That video was produced by the Haqqanis’ own Manba’ al-Jihad media shop.
Since the New York Times’s publication of the Haqqani op-ed in February, additional evidence has come to light. Earlier this week, a U.N. monitoring team published an analysis claiming that the Taliban’s and the Haqqanis’ alliance with al-Qaeda remains unbroken. The report’s allegations cut against the Trump administration’s claims regarding the agreement it signed with the Taliban on February 29. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has gone so far as to argue that the Taliban has agreed to “work alongside of us to destroy” al-Qaeda.
The text of the U.S.-Taliban agreement says no such thing. And the newly released U.N. report provides additional reasons for skepticism.
The Taliban “regularly consulted with Al Qaeda during negotiations with the United States and offered guarantees that it would honor their historical ties,” the U.N. monitoring team’s report reads.
Member states told the U.N.’s analysts that the Taliban and al-Qaeda “held meetings over the course of 2019 and in early 2020 to discuss cooperation related to operational planning, training and the provision by the Taliban of safe havens for Al Qaeda members inside Afghanistan.” There were six reported high-level “meetings between Al Qaeda and Taliban senior leadership held over the past 12 months.”
Ayman al-Zawahiri himself reportedly met with a delegation of Haqqanis in February of this year, the same month the New York Times ran the op-ed attributed to Sirajuddin Haqqani. This was also around the time the Trump administration and Taliban signed their deal. The delegation allegedly included Yahya Haqqani—Sirajuddin’s brother-in-law and a longtime “liaison” to al-Qaeda. The U.N. monitoring team doesn’t say what came of the meeting, only that the Haqqani team “consulted” with Zawahiri “over the agreement with the United States and the peace process.”
Another meeting reportedly occurred in the spring of 2019, when Hamza bin Laden met with three Taliban representatives in Afghanistan’s southern Helmand Province. The trio of Taliban men met with Hamza “to reassure him personally that the Islamic Emirate would not break its historical ties with Al Qaeda for any price.”There is much we don’t know about Hamza bin Laden’s purported final months. The White House issued a statement in September 2019 saying he had been killed in a counterterrorism operation, but didn’t explain precisely where or when. The White House also said that Hamza “was responsible for planning and dealing with various terrorist groups,” but didn’t name those specific organizations. According to the U.N. monitoring team’s report, the Taliban was one such group.
Still other high-level meetings between al-Qaeda and the Taliban are referenced in the report. And the U.N.’s analysts write that al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Network, which is an integral part of the Taliban, have even talked about creating a new joint fighting force of 2,000 fighters in eastern Afghanistan.
The U.N. Monitoring Team’s report is sourced to “member states,” which typically do not share their intelligence with the public. This makes it impossible for us to independently corroborate certain details—including those mentioned above. It is possible that secret intelligence, such as intercepts, are cited as the underlying sources, but we simply do not know. There is inherent ambiguity surrounding such matters.
Other parts of the report can be checked and verified. And certain passages are entirely consistent with a well-attested history of the Taliban’s relations with al-Qaeda. For example, the U.N. monitoring team writes that “[r]elations between the Taliban, especially the Haqqani Network, and Al-Qaeda remain close, based on friendship, a history of shared struggle, ideological sympathy and intermarriage.”
Readers of the op-ed published in Sirajuddin Haqqani’s name wouldn’t know that.
Some are heavily invested in the fictitious narrative that there is nothing to the relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. But the jihadists themselves have a way of reminding us that al-Qaeda sits at the nexus of various jihadist groups throughout Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In April, the Pakistani Taliban released a lengthy video lionizing its fallen emir Hakimullah Mehsud, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in northern Pakistan in 2013. The video was an ostentatious display of the Pakistani Taliban’s own “symbiotic relationship” with al-Qaeda. Multiple al-Qaeda figures were featured, including Osama bin Laden. Mehsud was responsible for some high-profile operations, including the December 30, 2009, suicide attack at Camp Chapman in Afghanistan. It was one of the deadliest days in the agency’s history, as seven CIA officers were killed. Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the operation, which it jointly conducted with the Pakistani Taliban. The video tribute to Mehsud glorifies the Camp Chapman bombing at some length. It also pays tribute Mehsud’s role in the May 1, 2010 bombing in Times Square New York, not far from the New York Times’s own offices. Fortunately, that bombing fizzled. But the terrorist responsible, Faisal Shahzad, was directed by Mehsud.
Why does any of this matter for present purposes? Well, at one point in the same video, the Pakistani Taliban includes footage of Hakimullah Mehsud praying alongside Sirajuddin Haqqani.
Haqqani’s face is blurred in the footage, as he refuses to appear in public for security reasons. The text in the upper left hand of the video honors “Khalifa Sirajuddin” as the Deputy Emir of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate, meaning the Pakistani Taliban’s men continue to consider him to be their rightful ruler.
It has long been known that the Haqqanis harbored the Pakistani Taliban, as well as several other al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, in its strongholds.
But when the New York Times published the op-ed attributed to Haqqani in February, that fact and many others weren’t disclosed.
*Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn.

Turkey and Russia are at War, and Libya’s the Loser
James Stavridis/Bloombergt/Monday, 8 June, 2020
The long-running Libyan civil war appears to be staggering toward a finale. In recent days, the forces of Gen. Khalifa Haftar have been forced to withdraw from their stalled offensive against the capital, Tripoli. It is a triumph for the Government of National Accord, led by Fayez al-Sarraj.
But the fighting is not simply a domestic issue — Libya’s civil war has become a proxy for regional and global power geopolitics. It is also a legacy of the way in which the West abandoned the country a decade ago.
The Tripoli government is supported strongly by Turkey, while Haftar’s coalition is backed by Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, France and a smattering of other nations. Haftar’s defeat may be an opening for a negotiated settlement, but it will require those outside nations to push the warring sides to the table. The United States and European Union also have a role to play.
Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves, but production has cratered to almost nothing from over 1.6 million barrels daily before the fall of Moammar Gaddafi a decade ago. All of this could have been avoided. Libya also has gorgeous beaches and an educated, middle-class population; it could have become a kind of "Dubai on the Mediterranean.” But it all fell apart in 2011.
As supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, I oversaw a significant Western intervention following Gaddafi’s threats to destroy the eastern city of Benghazi and create "a river of blood,” as his son Saif put it. The United Nations Security Council passed resolutions calling on NATO to set up an arms embargo from the sea, a no-fly zone in the air, and to take all necessary combat measures to stop the dictator under the international legal doctrine of "responsibility to protect.”
The NATO coalition I led was joined by many Arab nations in close support. Our mission was not to overthrow Gaddafi per se. But his regime was weakened by NATO efforts, including a precise bombing campaign. The rebellious population eventually overthrew him, and he was brutally killed by a mob.
At that moment, unfortunately, the resolve of the West was weak. NATO, its military mission complete, withdrew. I looked with disappointment at the EU and the rest of the global community refusing to remain and stabilize the situation. Libya descended into the chaos it still suffers today. The ancient animosities inside the country are largely tribal at heart, and rooted in resentments between the relatively wealthier west and the oil-poor east and south.
In the aftermath of the NATO intervention, I met with Haftar, who lived near Washington for years. I was impressed with his energy and drive, and hoped he could be part of resolving the tensions in the country after the NATO mission departed.
But as the civil war has dragged on since 2014, Haftar has led a campaign to dominate the country militarily, leading nations from across the region to intervene either for or against him. Turkey has been particularly engaged, throwing its support behind the Tripoli government. Russia joined the Arab states supporting Haftar, sending in a comically inept mercenary force, the Wagner Group, to try and swing events in the general’s favor. The mercenaries were ignominiously airlifted out last week, but Russian air power is reportedly being deployed in support of Haftar’s troops.
Nonetheless, the Tripoli government sounds increasingly confident in its ground game, and Turkish air power (including sophisticated drones) is having strong effect. The whole thing is an echo of the so-called Great Game the British and Russians waged in Central Asia in the 19th century, but now playing out in North Africa. All of this occurs as COVID-19 spreads across the region and many global powers, including the US, are highly distracted. Yet there have been thousands of deaths and more than 200,000 people displaced from their homes in the last year alone.
The US hasn’t been totally AWOL. In late January, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended an international conference in Berlin that sought to push the warring sides toward negotiations. But Turkey and Russia, motivated by oil wealth and regional leverage, never reached a deal. Now, perhaps, the setbacks to Haftar’s forces will reopen a chance for peace.For the US, the best course is to partner with the EU to restart talks somewhere in Western Europe. They should press Turkey, a NATO ally, to negotiate with Russia on each reducing military support; aim to get agreement from the Gulf Arabs and Egypt to let the Libyans sort it out internally; help build a cease-fire that could restart the oil production; and provide humanitarian assistance in containing the novel coronavirus. Losing a brutal dictator only to fall into a decade of war has been a sad outcome for the 6 million Libyans. For the US and Europe, helping them find a path to peace is not just a humanitarian imperative — it is a direct responsibility, given the dire way in which the 2011 NATO intervention turned out.

COVID-19 in Iran and Turkey: Mismanagement, Crackdowns, Economic Crises, and Corona-Diplomacy
Aykan Erdemir/Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/June 08/2020
Iran and Turkey have been the two countries in the Middle East hardest hit by COVID-19. Their respective epidemics – which both governments have largely mismanaged – have amplified their democratic deficits, compounded their economic crises, and prompted failed diplomatic offensives.
Mismanagement
Iran and Turkey, the two most populous countries in the Middle East, with some 84 million people each, also lead the region in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Iran, which reported its first case on February 19, has over 167,000 cases as of June 5, the 12th-highest in the world. Turkey, which reported its first case on March 11, three weeks after Iran, ranks 11th worldwide, with some 168,000 cases.
Their real numbers are likely much higher, however, since Iran and Turkey both consistently underreport their COVID-19 cases. Although the Iranian cabinet first discussed the coronavirus in a meeting on January 17, the regime waited another month before finally admitting the virus had entered Iran. Even then, Tehran continued to restrict public discussion of the pandemic. The Islamic Republic has systematically underreported COVID-19 fatalities by filing them as caused by “severe respiratory disease,” a practice criticized even by an Iranian lawmaker. Iran’s systematic cover-up has triggered a second wave of the epidemic. On June 3, Tehran reported its highest number of daily COVID-19 infections in two months.
Turkey has similarly underreported COVID-19 cases, by limiting testing early on and excluding clinically diagnosed cases from its overall statistics. A number of studies using publicly available mortality statistics revealed significant spikes in Turkish COVID-19 fatalities, which started to rise even before the country’s first confirmed coronavirus death.
Political Islam contributed to inadequate mitigation measures by both governments. Even after acknowledging its first COVID-19 cases in Qom, a holy city for Shiite Muslims, the clerical regime in Iran refused to quarantine the city or its religious centers. Only in March did Tehran finally close the Masoume Shrine, an order defied by worshippers.
Similarly, Ankara not only failed to stop religious pilgrimage trips to Saudi Arabia in late February, but was also late to quarantine some 21,000 pilgrims on their return home and waited until March 16 before suspending communal prayers. These failures – made at the behest of Turkey’s powerful Directorate of Religious Affairs and designed to please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist base – contributed to the spread of the virus.
For what it is worth, however, Ankara’s approach has not been as poor as Tehran’s. Turkey’s minister of health shares daily updates on the country’s total number of tests, reported cases, recoveries, and fatalities. In addition, Turkey has imposed much stricter lockdown measures than has Iran. As of May 31, Turkey had a rating of 78.7 (out of a possible 100) on Oxford’s Government Response Stringency Index, as opposed to Iran’s rating of 55.6.
Ankara started cancelling flights to China on January 30 and suspended all flights from the pandemic’s epicenter on February 5, but waited until February 23 to close its land border with Iran, the pandemic’s regional epicenter. Turkey restricted passage of trucks and freight trains and closed its main route for trade with Iran, the Bazargan/Gurbulak station, which it replaced with the nearby Sarisu border crossing. Ankara announced its plans to reopen the Bazargan/Gurbulak border gate on June 3, the day Tehran reported its second wave of COVID-19 infections.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Mahan Air, which the U.S. Treasury Department designated in 2011 for “providing financial, material and technological support to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF),” continued flights to China even after Tehran officially suspended them on January 31. Mahan conducted at least 55 return flights from China between February 4 and February 23.
Political Crackdowns
Iran and Turkey’s Islamist leaders have both sought to exploit the COVID-19 crisis to tighten their grip on power. Nazanin Boniadi, a member of the board of directors at the Center for Human Rights in Iran, warns that the COVID-19 epidemic is “exacerbating the government’s assault on the rights of Iranian citizens.” Similarly, Brookings Senior Fellow Kemal Kirisci has observed that COVID-19 “has led to more authoritarianism for Turkey.”
For both Tehran and Ankara, political concerns have overridden public health priorities. Fearing that COVID-19 would lead to a massive outbreak in prisons, Tehran announced on March 9 the temporary release of 70,000 prisoners, but excluded political detainees. That number reached 85,000 by March 17, with the release of some political prisoners. Similarly, Turkey passed a bill on April 14 to release some 90,000 inmates, including mob bosses, racketeers, and looters, but kept political prisoners behind bars, including scores of lawmakers, mayors, and opposition officials.
Furthermore, both countries have doubled down on their longstanding political repression. As of April 28, the regime in Iran had arrested 3,600 Iranians under a new law that makes spreading “fake news or rumors” about COVID-19 punishable by up to three years in prison.
True to form, the Turkish government, the world’s top jailer of journalists, has interrogated journalists for reporting on COVID-19 – even filing a criminal complaint against a local TV news anchor for “spreading lies and manipulating the public.” Turkish authorities have also arrested over 400 individuals for allegedly inflammatory social media posts. The Erdogan regime also removed eight opposition mayors from office on March 24 and stripped three opposition lawmakers of their parliamentary status before arresting them on June 4.
In both countries, authorities have sought to scapegoat minorities for COVID-19, with Ankara demonizing the LGBTI community and Tehran going after, as usual, Jews.
Economic Impact
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that this year the Iranian and Turkish economies will shrink by 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively. For Iran, this would mark its third consecutive year of economic contraction. For Turkey, which seemed to have shaken off recession during the third quarter of 2019 after three consecutive quarters of contraction, this means a return to economic malaise.
Even before the pandemic, Iran’s economy was ailing as a result of Washington’s maximum pressure campaign. The pandemic has further depressed economic activity in Iran, widening the country’s trade deficit. Iran will likely see a current account deficit of 4 percent this year.
Given their already tight financial situations, neither Iran nor Turkey was able to offer substantial aid packages to soften the economic pain of COVID-19. Tehran has had a cash subsidies system in place since 2010, but these transfers amount to just $11 per month at the official exchange rate. With no relief in sight, millions of Iranians were left with no option but to go to work.
Empty coffers similarly prevented the Turkish government from offering substantial assistance to its citizens. The $15 billion stimulus plan Ankara announced on March 18 amounted to 1.5 percent of Turkish GDP. The Turkish government has since increased the stimulus to 5 percent of GDP, but this figure still pales in comparison to packages issued by other states, including Japan (21 percent), the United States (11 percent), and Brazil (8 percent). In the absence of greater stimulus, Ankara needed to keep the wheels of the economy turning. Hence, it imposed few restrictions on the movement of the working-age population despite calls from the opposition and unions for a lockdown.
Coronavirus Diplomacy
Both Tehran and Ankara have launched charm offensives through coronavirus diplomacy to restore their global public images. Although Iranian and Turkish healthcare workers have frequently complained about shortages of personal protective equipment, both countries have made it a priority to direct medical supplies abroad.
In January and February, Tehran sent millions of masks to China. Ankara similarly airlifted its first shipment of medical aid to China in early March, then sent shipments to Iran on March 17. At the end of May, Ankara claimed to have received requests for assistance from 135 countries and sent medical aid, including face masks, gloves, and ventilators, to 100 countries. Iran and Turkey’s charm offensives collided on May 11, when Turkish diplomatic sources refuted Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s claim that Tehran “sent 40,000 advanced Iran-made test kits to Germany, Turkey and others.”
The United States was a key target of both Tehran’s and Ankara’s coronavirus diplomacy, albeit in different ways. The Islamic Republic used the pandemic to initiate a disinformation campaign to pressure Washington to suspend its sanctions. The clerical regime’s central claim was that sanctions had deprived Iranians of pharmaceutical products needed to fight the virus, a claim not supported by trade data, which show that sanctions have not significantly affected Tehran’s pharmaceutic imports.
In contrast, Erdogan launched a charm offensive by sending two military planeloads of medical aid to the United States, alongside a letter praising President Donald Trump’s “spirit of solidarity” during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund, Ankara was seeking “a quid pro quo likely to include the further delay of any US sanctions for its purchase of a Russian air defence system, and a dollar swap line from the Federal Reserve.” So far, Washington has not expressed any willingness to accommodate either of Ankara’s requests.
The Outlook
Despite their attempts to consolidate power, the COVID-19 crisis will continue to delegitimize the Iranian and Turkish regimes. In both countries, the economic crises triggered by the pandemic and amplified by government mismanagement and corruption have exacerbated discontent and fissures within their respective societies.
While Iran will continue to suffer from a collapse in both oil revenue and non-oil exports, Ankara has the option of signing a bailout deal with the IMF and initiating structural reforms to start remedying Turkey’s economic woes. Nevertheless, Ankara is unlikely to pursue an IMF program, since Erdogan sees IMF conditionalities requiring transparency, accountability, independent regulatory agencies, and an autonomous central bank as inimical to his hyper-centralized style of governance and extensive patronage network.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and the senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), Iran Program, and Turkey Program. For more analysis from Aykan, Saeed, CEFP, and the Iran and Turkey Programs, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and Saeed on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

How to Confront Iran
Scott Modell/Newsweek/June08/2020
When his first term in office comes to an end just six months from now, President Trump will have spent more time on Iran than on any other foreign policy issue besides China. But where has it gotten us? The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign has wreaked havoc on Iran's economy by nearly zeroing out its oil exports, but Iran's avowedly anti-American Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has refused to back down.
Since last June, the country's anti-U.S. resolve has gone into overdrive, starting with the shooting down of an American military drone over the Persian Gulf and culminating a few months later in a masterful sneak attack on two of the oil world's most valuable facilities in Saudi Arabia (Abqaiq and Khurais). The Trump administration raised the ante in January by killing Iran's most revered soldier, former IRGC-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. Yet Iran's hardliners stuck to their guns by carrying out a series of brazen attacks against U.S. military forces in Iraq.
Tehran is biding its time, for now, praying for a Biden win in November that would usher the U.S. back into the Obama-negotiated nuclear deal, end sanctions and begin a new experiment with what two prominent Biden advisers recently dubbed "aggressive diplomacy." The dreadful alternative is another four years of Donald Trump, summed up recently in an ultimatum delivered by the U.S. envoy for Iran: "Negotiate or manage economic collapse."
Unfortunately, neither Trump's maximum pressure policy alone nor a flip to Biden will compel the Islamic Republic to accommodate the United States. This raises the question: Why not skip right past another generation of Iranian dissimulation and disingenuous deal-making and go straight to regime change? A full-scale war with Iran is hardly warranted, but covert action could be exactly what the U.S. needs to support a democratic transition.
But first, we need to detox. "Regime change" still evokes images of CIA abuses, orchestrated military coups and the type of reckless U.S. interventionism that President Trump himself regularly riffs on. A 21st-century version should be non-lethal and strive to remove as much of the secrecy as possible. Accordingly, it will stand a much better chance of getting buy-in from Congress and the American public.
In a more politically palatable form, it would be easier to provide non-lethal U.S. support to freedom-seeking Iranians. There are several things Washington can do to elevate pressure from max to supermax.
Unify Iran's disparate protest movements. Regime change will benefit from U.S.-backed programs that fund, train and operationalize Iran's most important but disparate protest groups such as women, students, teachers, truck drivers and ethnic minorities. Boycotts, strikes and civil disobedience that occur under a single banner of uncompromising opposition will lead to defections from security services and political elites—one of the most important determinants of success for any mass movement. By opening up covert action to experts in economic reconstruction, organized labor and civil society, Washington will have a deeper impact and provide a future national resistance movement with structure, funding and vision—precisely what was missing in the popular but rudderless Green Movement a decade ago.
Active, not passive media. U.S.-sponsored Persian media programs that cost tens of millions of dollars every year, such as the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, offer high-quality news broadcasts. Some estimate that they reach as many as 50 million regular viewers of satellite TV, 44 million internet users and 25 million users of social networks and messaging apps. That sounds like a substitute for unbearable, pro-regime propaganda at home, not an action-oriented tool of U.S. policy. The days of "passive media" should make way for creative initiatives that rouse an army of disaffected Iranians sidelined by fear. This is exactly what Ayatollah Khomeini did when he weaponized a sprawling network of nearly 10,000 mosques across Iran to clandestinely disseminate tape-recorded messages to inspire millions of Iranians to take up the cause of civil resistance.
Connect with regime insiders. For any non-violent mass movement to succeed, it will need assistance from men and women in the government they seek to overthrow. Sympathetic elites can start by smuggling out damning information about the regime that riles up Iranians the most—corruption, incompetence and violent repression. Insiders include not only military officers and government officials, but also the insidious facilitators that quietly run the day-to-day affairs of a vast commercial apparatus. Their support will be especially critical during the later phases of a transition, when the regime's survival will hinge on whether the security services remain loyal or not. The U.S. can help stand up and fortify the scaffolding of insider support, but it will take time, money and planning to thwart Iran's vast and increasingly paranoid counterintelligence apparatus.
Burrow into Energy and Transportation. General strikes, boycotts and general disobedience were largely responsible for paralyzing the Iranian economy in the two years leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In November 1978, 37,000 oil workers went on strike, causing Iran's oil production to fall by nearly 80 percent in less than two weeks. A similar strike today would be even more devastating, potentially causing fuel disruptions at home at a time when sanctions have already cut off 80 to 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. While oil workers have avoided protests in recent years, truck drivers have started them. More than 200,000 truck drivers went on strike across 250 cities for most of the second half of 2018, leading to shortages of gasoline and other basic goods across the country. Iran's judiciary pumped out hundreds of arrest orders, and the prosecutor general went even further by threatening severe punishments, including the death penalty. Washington should voice public support for truck drivers and help strengthen the 10 informal (i.e., illegal) trade associations that truck drivers have set up across the country.
A second Trump administration should part with the fiction that U.S. leaders have coddled uncomfortably for far too long: Iran will eventually change its ways. Maximum pressure has failed to achieve it, paving the way for a new approach nestled between Biden's promise of "aggressive diplomacy" and the unthinkable notion of all-out war. Broader U.S. government participation in a reformed version of covert action could be an open, cost-effective and humane way of helping Iranians usher out the ruling theocracy in favor of democracy. The alternatives—waiting for Iran to capitulate and commit to real change or spontaneous combustion in the form of a Persian Spring—are just wishful thinking.
*Scott Modell is the managing director of the Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington, D.C.-based energy consulting firm focused on oil markets, policy and geopolitics. Scott is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and served for 13 years in the CIA's National Clandestine Service.

Hong Kong Today, Taiwan Next?
Bradley Bowman/ Newsweek/June 08/2020
Something is happening in Beijing, and it goes well beyond last week’s Hong Kong power grab. On multiple fronts—from the border with India to the South China Sea to the seas and skies surrounding Taiwan—the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has decided to adopt an even more aggressive policy. If Washington fails to respond appropriately, Beijing could target Taiwan next.
Brushing aside its international obligations under the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, Beijing has decided to tighten its authoritarian grip on Hong Kong. The Trump administration, in response, is now moving to end Hong Kong’s special economic status.
That’s appropriate, but Washington should view Beijing’s actions on Hong Kong as part of a larger CCP policy that could culminate in military action against Taiwan.
To be sure, any predictions regarding the likelihood and timing of such an attack should be proffered humbly and viewed critically. The truth is that no one outside of the core group of CCP decision-makers knows for sure.
It is indeed possible that Beijing may continue to wait until the military balance of power erodes further before acting. But history is littered with examples of nations ignoring growing threats or consoling themselves that an attack was unlikely, only to be suddenly and tragically proven wrong.
Such an attack would be a catastrophe for Taiwan. It would also put Washington on the horns of a horrible dilemma—forcing the United States to either go to war with China or look the other way. A failure to honor Washington’s obligations and defend Taiwan would deliver a devastating body blow to America’s interests, reputation and influence.
Prudence, therefore, demands that Washington and Taipei assume military aggression could come sooner than expected. And there are reasons to believe the burden of proof rests with those who dismiss such a possibility.
The CCP, of course, has long cast a covetous eye at Taiwan, eager to bring the free and prosperous island under authoritarian control.
And at the broadest level, the CCP does not view Hong Kong and Taiwan as fundamentally different situations. From Beijing’s perspective, the absence of unchallenged Chinese authoritarian control in both Hong Kong and Taiwan is an antiquated and unacceptable remnant from a time when China lacked sufficient power to do anything about it.
But the reasons for concern don’t stop there.
In the lead-up to January’s Taiwanese presidential election, Beijing threw all but the kitchen sink at Taiwan in an attempt to undermine incumbent and pro-sovereignty candidate Tsai Ing-wen. Despite a robust disinformation campaign, military intimidation and efforts to stifle Taiwan’s economy, Tsai earned a resounding re-election.
Her successful campaign on democracy and freedom, and her subsequent inauguration last month, may have left the CCP with the conclusion that force—and not guile—represents the best path forward.
Adding to the CCP’s heartburn, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored a stark contrast between Taiwan and the authoritarian mainland. The coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, likely inflicted many avoidable deaths worldwide due to the CCP’s lack of transparency. Taiwan, on the other hand, was a model of transparency and governmental effectiveness, earning widespread praise for its handling of the virus.
This has likely left the CCP embarrassed and seething.
Meanwhile, the economic fallout from the crisis is undermining Chinese economic growth—which has been the primary perceived source of domestic credibility for the CCP. Some are beginning to quietly question President Xi Jinping’s leadership.
All of this is happening within the backdrop of a military balance of power that has shifted for years in Beijing’s favor.
For these reasons, it is perhaps unsurprising that Beijing has already started to ratchet up military pressure on Taipei, with frequent shows of coercive air and maritime force near Taiwan. In light of developments in China, Beijing might come to view a military conflict as a means of encouraging domestic unity and solidifying political control.
To deter such a decision, Washington’s response should include diplomatic, economic and military elements.
Diplomatically, congressional leaders of both parties should spend less time worrying about the CCP’s reactions and more time signaling strong support for Taiwan. That should mean more visits to Taiwan by prominent senators and representatives. These trips may seem like meaningless political theater, but they actually send an important signal to Beijing that the U.S. stands with Taiwan.
Consistent with the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act, unanimously approved by Congress and signed into law last month, Washington must also aggressively advocate for Taiwan’s membership in key international organizations. This will be easier if Washington does not leave these organizations itself, as it is currently doing with the World Health Organization (WHO). Instead of departing the WHO in protest of Chinese influence, Washington should fight for Taiwan to be added as a member.
Consistent with the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act, unanimously approved by Congress and signed into law this year, Washington must also aggressively advocate for Taiwan’s membership in key international organizations. This will be easier if Washington does not leave these organizations itself, as it is currently doing with the World Health Organization (WHO). Instead of departing the WHO in protest of Chinese influence, Washington should fight for Taiwan to be added as a member.
Washington talks regularly about the great power competition with China. It is difficult to effectively engage in this competition if Washington vacates the field of competition like a child that has been frustrated and outmaneuvered—gathering his marbles and going home.
The TAIPEI Act also expresses the sense of Congress that Washington should explore ways to strengthen “bilateral trade and economic relations between the United States and Taiwan.” A U.S.-Taiwan trade deal would do just that, spurring the two economies and reducing Taiwan’s economic reliance on China.
Militarily, Washington must act urgently to redress the worsening military balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. Concern about angering Beijing persuaded the Obama administration to withhold some military support for Taiwan. The Trump administration has taken some positive steps to better equip Taiwan to defend itself—but these steps are far from sufficient.
While the Taiwanese military will never as be as powerful as the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army, such a goal is unnecessary. Rather, Taiwan only needs select military capabilities in order to make an invasion of Taiwan too costly to ever consider.
The CCP’s authoritarian grab in Hong Kong is deeply concerning—and one part of a broader and more aggressive Beijing policy. If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman.

Non-Muslims Always “Welcomed” and Learned from Islam, Iran Claims
Raymond Ibrahim/June 08/2020
Recently, on May 21, “Quds Day,” the Tehran Times—which bills itself as “Iran’s Leading International Daily” and was founded in 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution—featured a piece underscoring the fact that rewriting history is every bit an Islamist as it is a leftist tactic.
Two themes—both lies—permeate “A Zionism-free world on strategic agenda of International Quds Day,” written by one Mohammad Hossein Niknam: 1) that Islam was an advanced and much “welcomed” force, and 2) that the West is the evil originator of colonialism. Both are well represented in the following excerpt:
Colonialism has experienced a bitter confrontation with the Islamic civilization. Following the emergence of Islam and its spread across the region, a powerful civilization was formed with its own cultural, scientific, military, and economic characteristics. Wherever the newly-formed civilization arrived it was welcomed by the hosting nations. The West, which was seemingly Christian but in fact was materialistic and profit-seeking had found the new civilization as an obstacle to its colonial projects.
Back in the real world, it is Islam that “colonized”—not to mention permanently conquered—the majority of the pre-Islamic Christian world, the predecessor of today’s West. This was done over the course of more than a millennium of violent jihads. The atrocities and mass slavery recorded in the chronicles of the times—both Muslim and non-Muslim—make ISIS style atrocities seem tame.
As for the obscene claim that “Wherever the newly-formed civilization [of Islam] arrived it was welcomed by the hosting nations,” perhaps it’s best to consider the words of those who actually witnessed Islam’s “arrival.”
After recording numerous horrific atrocities committed during the Muslim invasion of Christian Egypt beginning around 640, John of Nikiu, an eyewitness, concluded as follows: “But let us now say no more, for it is impossible to describe the horrors the Muslims committed.”
About a century later, after explaining how Muslim governor Musa bin Nusayr “invaded Spain to destroy it. He ruined beautiful cities, burning them with fire; condemned lords and powerful men to the cross; and butchered youths and infants with the sword…. He terrorized everyone,” the Latin Chronicle of 754 also concluded in resigned frustration: “Who can relate such perils? Who can enumerate such grievous disasters? Even if every limb were transformed into a tongue, it would be beyond human nature to express the ruin of Spain and its many and great evils.”
Three centuries later, after recounting numerous examples of the Islamic terrorization of Armenia at the hands of Turks beginning around 1040, Matthew of Edessa also threw up his hands in despair: “How to relate here, with a voice stifled by tears, the death of nobles and clergy whose bodies, left without graves, became the prey of carrion beasts, the exodus of women of high birth led with their children into Persian slavery and condemned to an eternal servitude! That was the beginning of the misfortunes of Armenia. So, lend an ear to this melancholy recital.”
So much, then, for Iran’s claim that Islam merely “spread” and was “welcomed by the hosting nations.” Indeed, two of the three nations discussed above—Egypt and Spain—are often the ones that Muslims boast were most eager to “welcome” Islam.
As for Jerusalem, Tehran Times’ main topic, here are the recorded thoughts of Sophronius, the Holy City’s patriarch who was present during its conquest by Islam around 637: “The vengeful and God-hating Saracens … overrun the places which are not allowed to them, plunder cities, devastate fields, burn down villages, set on fire the holy churches, [and] overturn the sacred monasteries.”
Equally warped—or projected—are Tehran Times’ depictions of the West as being, both past and present, a colonial force responsible for the Islamic world’s contemporary dysfunctionalism.
In reality, European powers colonized the Muslim world for only about a century—compared to the more than a millennium of jihadi depredations and conquests Europe had earlier experienced. Moreover, European rule in the Muslim world had an altruistic component—the so-called “White Man’s Burden”—to civilize and help Muslims break away from their tribal mentality of exclusively subsisting on “the other,” the infidel. Thus, whereas jihads often culminated in slavery, depopulation, and devastation, European colonialists abolished slavery and introduced their Muslim subjects to the boons of modernity, scientific and medicinal advances, and the radical concepts of democracy and religious freedom.
“In a word,” writes a Copt around the turn of the twentieth century concerning British rule, “we say that the Egyptian State was at the highest degree of justice and good order and arrangement. And it removed religious fanaticism, and almost established equality between its subjects, Christian and Muslim, and it eliminated most of the injustice, and it realized much in the way of beneficial works for the benefit of all the inhabitants.”
In fact, under the West’s cultural influence the Muslim world flourished and advanced as never before; and the argument can be made that it is the pusillanimous retreat of Western influence—or capitulation to relativism and its many offspring (e.g., multiculturalism)—that has caused the Muslim world to descend back to poverty, chaos, and terrorism.
In the end, none of these well documented facts matter for Iran’s Islamic leaders. In order to present Israel and its Western allies as the root cause of the world’s problems, they have no choice but to rewrite history—just as leftists in the West regularly do—and in ways that beggar belief.

Palestinians: The Problem with 'Peace'

Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June08/2020
As far as the Palestinian leadership is concerned, Israel and the US administration are now the main enemies of the Palestinians. It is prohibited to talk to any Israeli or US official. It has also become taboo for any Palestinian to talk about holding meetings with Israeli or US officials.
When you radicalize your people against Israel and the US in such a way, how can you expect Palestinian leaders not to veto meeting with Israelis?
Moreover, as Malki is also under attack also from the "moderates," one can only ask what the "non-moderates" could have in store for the besieged foreign minister -- or for any leader who might dare to return to a negotiating table with Israel?
Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Malki seems to have committed a "crime". He said that the Palestinians are prepared to hold a meeting with Israelis! As far as the Palestinian leadership is concerned, Israel and the US administration are now the main enemies of the Palestinians. It is prohibited to talk to any Israeli or US official. Pictured: Malki at the United Nations Office in Geneva on October 13, 2015.
Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Malki seems to have committed a "crime". He said that the Palestinians are prepared to hold a meeting with Israelis! Malki made this scandalous statement during a meeting last week with foreign journalists.
"The Palestinian leadership has confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin," Malki said, referring to the possibility of holding a video conference meeting between PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under the auspices of the Russian president. "The Palestinians will consider this possibility if Russia determines that its useful."
The Palestinian leadership, since 2014, has been boycotting peace talks with Israel. Since 2017, the Palestinian leadership has also been boycotting the US administration in response to President Donald Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
Abbas, on May 19, announced his decision to renounce all agreements and understandings with Israel and the US, including security cooperation. As far as the Palestinian leadership is concerned, Israel and the US administration are now the main enemies of the Palestinians. It is prohibited to talk to any Israeli or US official. It has also become taboo for any Palestinian to talk about holding meetings with Israeli or US officials.
Malki's statements have therefore sparked widespread anger among Palestinians, some of whom are denouncing him and calling for his resignation.
Notably, those who are now condemning Malki are not only from extremist groups opposed to any peace process with Israel, but also from Abbas's own ruling Fatah faction. This is the same Fatah that is regularly referred to in the international media as the "moderate" faction of the Palestinians.
Founded in 1959, Fatah is the full name of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement. In 1967, Fatah joined the PLO, which signed the Oslo Accord with Israel in 1993 ostensibly to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by means of territorial concessions.
At the time, then PLO leader Yasser Arafat sent a letter to then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin claiming that the PLO was willing to acknowledge Israel's right to exist, commit to finding a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and relinquish all forms of terrorism.
Twenty-seven years later, the leaders of Fatah evidently believe that conducting negotiations with Israel is a "crime" and that Palestinians who still believe in a peace process with Israelis at the very least need to be removed from their jobs.
Responding to Malki's statements, senior Fatah official Tawfik Tirawi issued a stern warning to the Palestinian foreign minister and accused him of acting in violation of the Palestinian "national consensus." Addressing Malki, the Fatah official said:
"It is time for you to go home for self-reflection. You are no longer able to express, with a minimum of diplomacy, the aspirations of the [Palestinian] people. The prime minister is urgently required to replace you."
Because of Tirawi's background and senior position in Fatah, his attack on the Palestinian foreign minister carries weight. Tirawi, who holds the rank of Brigadier-General and is a member of the Fatah Central Committee, created and headed the Palestinian General Intelligence Service in 1994.
It is also notable that in the wake of Tirawi's attack on Malki, no Fatah leader has come out in Malki's defense. Fatah's silence, in fact, can be seen as an endorsement of Tirawi's call for dismissing a Palestinian official who expresses readiness to hold meetings with Israelis.
Tirawi's attack on Malki, meanwhile, has been welcomed by several Palestinian groups that reject Israel's right to exist, including the Iranian-funded Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
Hamas said Malki's comments indicate that the Palestinian leadership is not serious about its threat to walk away from all agreements and understandings with Israel. "These statements show that the Palestinian leadership lacks the will to confront [Israeli] plans to annex the West Bank," Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said. "They also show that the Palestinian leadership is continuing to bet on its relations with the occupation government."
PIJ said in a separate remark that Malki's announcement "expose[s] the size of the confusion in the performance of the Palestinian Authority." According to PIJ, the message also reveals the "contradictory positions and actions of Palestinian officials regarding meetings with the enemy."
The PLO's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for firing Malki and holding him accountable for his readiness to resume peace talks with Israel. "The PFLP views with seriousness the statements attributed to Malki, which reflect the Palestinian Authority's continued adherence to the illusions of negotiations [with Israel]," the group said in a statement. "The PFLP considers these comments as part of a trend that is turning against the Palestinian national and factional consensus."
Another PLO group, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), called on Malki to "stop your political heresy and abide by the decisions of the legislative bodies of the [PLO] National and Central Councils." These decisions advocate cutting off all relations with Israel, including security cooperation between the Palestinian security forces and the IDF in the West Bank. The DFLP said that Malki's remarks "carry dangerous positions and intentions that contradict the general trend adopted by the Palestinians towards Israel."
Not surprisingly, Malki, because of his apparent readiness to conduct a dialogue with Israel, is also facing a campaign of incitement on various social media platforms.
The attacks on Malki are hardly a surprise, given growing anti-Israel and anti-US sentiments among Palestinians.
This hostility is the direct result of the Palestinian leadership's continued incitement and fiery rhetoric against Israel and the US. Day in and day out, Palestinian leaders drill into the minds of their people that Israel rejects peace and is committing "war crimes" against Palestinians.
The same leaders insist with deadly deliberation that the US administration and Trump are "biased" in favor Israel and hate the Palestinians. When you radicalize your people against Israel and the US in such a way, how can you expect Palestinian leaders not to veto meeting with Israelis?
Under the current circumstances, it is impossible to talk about the resumption of a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians: as Malki learned the hard way, even as much as a word about negotiations from the mouth of a Palestinian leader sounds -- at the very least -- the death knell of his career.
Moreover, as Malki is also under attack also from "moderates," one can only ask what "non-moderates" could have in store for the besieged foreign minister -- or for any leader who might dare to return to a negotiating table with Israel?
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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France: Post-Pandemic Disaster?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/June08/2020
France was, in addition, paralyzed from any kind of growth by a proliferation of regulations and an omnipresent bureaucracy.
During France's lockdown, a law was passed to fine heavily (250.000 euros, $275,000) any social network that published what a judge might consider "hateful"; people are also now asked to report to the justice department any suspicious statement they read or hear about. Since schools and high schools have reopened, teachers were invited by the government to listen to the conversations of their students and immediately to report any comment criticizing the government.
"At the source of French misfortune, there are French traitors who bear French first names. They have been abusing the voters' trust for more than 40 years. They lied about the real state of society and ransacked the country". — Ivan Rioufol, columnist, Le Figaro, February 19, 2020.
French police, during the pandemic, have been ordered to avoid going into no-go zones. The government might have feared that if an incident occurred, riots could break out. On April 19, a young man riding a motorcycle at high speed hit the door of a police car near a sensitive zone in a suburb of Paris and was injured: for days, throughout the country, buildings and cars were burned. Pictured: A rioter shoots fireworks at police in Villeneuve-la-Garenne, in the northern suburbs of Paris, on April 20, 2020. (Photo by Geoffroy van der Hasselt/AFP via Getty Images)
The coronavirus pandemic in the northern hemisphere seems starting to subside -- perhaps just temporarily.
Many journalists wonder if Italy, one of the eight countries most affected in Western Europe, will leave the EU. Another country of concern is France -- not in great shape.
Although France spends a significant amount on its healthcare (8.6% of France's GDP), the pandemic there has been frighteningly mismanaged. There was a tragic shortage of intensive-care beds: 5,000 for the whole country, compared to Germany's 28,000. There was also, until the end of April, a near-total lack of masks and protective equipment for hospital doctors and caregivers. Further, there was the great lack of an ability to test for the coronavirus. The situation led the government to decide on one of the strictest general lockdowns in Europe. For eight weeks, the French economy, like others, effectively stopped. The results were devastating.
France, before the pandemic, was already in an alarming economic state. For several years, the country's economic growth rate had been barely above zero; the country's central bank had lowered its growth forecast for 2020 to 1.1%. France's unemployment rate was high (8.1%); it had not fallen below 8% for two decades. France was, in addition, paralyzed from any kind of growth by a proliferation of regulations and an omnipresent bureaucracy. The Index of Economic Freedom, published each year by the Heritage Foundation, ranks France number 64 , behind the United Kingdom (7), the Netherlands (14), Germany (27), and far behind formerly communist countries such as Poland (46), Romania (42), Bulgaria (37) or the Czech Republic (23).
France has now entered a deep recession. Economists anticipate that growth at the end of 2020 will be minus 8%. By comparison, the figure given for Germany is minus 6.3%. Many economists seem unsure if, in 2021, growth in France will resume at all. They say the country's rigidities are such that for the country fully to recover, it could take a decade. Although the French government has not published any recent statistics on unemployment, commentators say that one out of two persons working in the private sector is now unemployed. Worse, as a large number of small and medium businesses have gone bankrupt during the pandemic, there is virtually no hope of seeing millions of jobs quickly recreated. Although the French government also has not published any recent statistics on poverty, an increase in unemployment is bound to go hand-in-hand with an increase in poverty.
Before the pandemic, taxes and public spending, the highest in the developed world, also further paralyzed France's economy. The overall tax burden equaled 48.4% of the country's GDP; government spending amounted to 56.5% of the country's GDP. The country's budget deficit was at least 3% a year. To cover its spending, the government, had to borrow; so the country's debt continued to rise. In 2019, it reached 100% of GDP.
During the pandemic, like the governments of other European countries affected, the French government injected tens of billions of euros into the economy, but could rely only partly on the European Central Bank: it remains bound by drastic rules that limit its ability for quantitative easing. France consequently went further into debt; its obligations now are even greater. Financiers estimate that its debt, which has increased by at least 15%, will reach 130% in 2021. The French government cannot increase taxes unless it intends to go from recession to depression, and is unlikely to lower public spending during a time of increased poverty and extremely high unemployment.
France's situation is all the more untenable in that for decades it has been a country of high immigration. France has accepted hundreds of thousands of newcomers -- on average, 400,000 migrants annually. Most have no marketable skills and rely on welfare indefinitely. Among people living on social benefits, the proportion of first-generation immigrants is more than 20% -- double the rest of the population. Even if the French government decided to put an abrupt end to immigration, the weight of unskilled immigrants already present in the country would not disappear.
A crucial factor for the country's future, largely overlooked since the pandemic, is that most of the immigration in France since the 1960s has come from the Muslim world: France is now the European country with the largest number of Muslims in its population. Some estimates were that they consisted of around or 6 million people: 8.8% of the population of roughly 67 million. Other estimates spoke of 10% of the total population, or 6.7 million people. In addition, available data show that the birthrate in Muslim families is higher than in non-Muslim families, further adding to the social and economic impact of the mass-migration. Demographers project that by 2050, the Muslim population in France will double, or possibly increase even more.
Before the pandemic, integrating Muslims into the general population did not seem to be working particularly well. In a survey conducted for the Institute Montaigne in 2016, 29% of French Muslims questioned said that, "Islamic law (sharia) is more important than the law of the Republic"; 65% said that women should wear an Islamic veil and that women who do not wear one are "immodest", and 24% said that modest women should wear the niqab, a veil that also covers the face. The figures for responders under the age of 25 were even higher.
No one is imagining that integration will suddenly work better, and the lack of it has visible effects. Muslim populations are increasingly living apart from the rest of the population. In Muslim neighborhoods, for instance, the lockdown was not respected at all. When journalists asked Muslims why they did not pay attention to the pandemic, they replied that Allah was protecting them and that the sickness only affected infidels.
In the 1980s, districts now officially regarded as "sensitive areas" (zones urbaines sensibles, or "no-go zones") barely existed. Twenty years later, they have become areas where French laws rarely apply. In 2002, the author Georges Bensoussan, defined these areas in his book as The Lost Territories of the Republic. Three years later, the "lost territories" rose up in protest for three weeks and France seemed on the brink of a civil war. Calm returned only thanks to imams to whom the government ceded power. The government told them that the police would no longer intervene where Muslim populations live. In 2017, when Bensoussan published A Submitted France, he said that now the entire country was affected.
There are presently 751 sensitive zones in France. There, gangs reign and the law that is enforced is the law of Islam, sharia. Most of the non-Muslim residents have gone. Doctors enter these areas only under escort. During the last decade, several perpetrators of the jihadist attacks that struck France -- and left 263 dead and many more wounded -- came from these districts. More than 150 mosques there are run by radical imams who incite hatred without the slightest murmur.
Some recent books show that perhaps an exhilarating feeling of supremacy combined with a desire for widespread submission to Islam might be at work. Bernard Rougier, a professor at the University of Paris who recently published a book, The Territories Conquered by Islamism, notes that "Islamist ideologues are doing in France what they did in the Maghreb 30 years ago". Many infiltrate political parties, various associations and sports clubs; make demands and intimidate; gain influence and are finally given their way. The lost territories of the republic, he says, are now "territories ruled by the Islamists".
François Pupponi, the former socialist mayor of Sarcelles, in the northern suburbs of Paris, in his book, The Emirates of the Republic, speaks of a "process of colonization" -- the creeping takeover of entire cities all over the country.
The police, during the pandemic, have been ordered to avoid going into the no-go zones. The government might have feared that if an incident occurred, riots could break out. On April 19, a young man riding a motorcycle at high speed hit the door of a police car near a sensitive zone in a suburb of Paris and was injured: for days, throughout the country, buildings and cars were burned.
The ubiquitous police checks during the pandemic seemingly forced many of the gangs to suspend their activities. The impoverishment of the country resulting from the lockdown will make drug trafficking less profitable. Police therefore expect in the months to come that the gangs might be more violent.
Social conflicts in France, always present, have become even more frequent since the beginning of the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. For years, almost all public gatherings have ended in riots, car burnings and store lootings. They are not a help.
The country's longest strike in four decades ended the day the lockdown was enacted. For more than six weeks, the movement of people and goods was effectively impossible or extremely slowed. The uprising of the "yellow vests", which began on November 17, 2018, before the long strike, lasted fifty weeks. Macron chose to ignore the claims of the strikers, and instead decided to crush the yellow vests movement by using police violence. Polls in January indicate that he has become the most hated president since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
When the general lockdown was officially supposed to end on May 11, the French intelligence services told Macron and the government that they feared a large uprising might begin going hand-in-hand with an explosion in gang violence.
Macron apparently then decided to keep the population under tight control. The French were not allowed to travel more than 60 miles from home (the restriction was lifted on June 2). They cannot leave the country without government authorization. Public gatherings of more than ten people are prohibited. Public parks, coffee shops and restaurants are still generally closed. In every city, the police are everywhere and visible. The country seems to be in a state of siege that cannot last indefinitely.
During the lockdown, a law was passed to fine heavily (250,000 euros, $275,000) any social network that published what a judge might consider "hateful." People are also being asked to report to the justice department any suspicious statement they read or hear about. Since schools and high schools have reopened, teachers were invited by the government to listen to the conversations of their students and immediately to report any comment criticizing the government.
There seems no political solution to the situation. Macron, elected in May 2017 when the main French political parties had collapsed, used a fear of "fascism" to defeat Marine Le Pen, president of the rightist National Front party. Macron is unpopular and widely rejected by the French population. His approval rating, which never exceeded 31%, fell to 23%. None of the decisions he made ever stopped the country's decline. The mismanagement of the pandemic in the country was appalling. Yet, he evidently still seems to think that by the next election, in the spring of 2022, he can defeat Marine Le Pen a second time -- she will probably be his main opponent once again -- and glide to an easy victory.
Recent polls, however, suggest that this strategy might not be so easy: it seems Marine Le Pen has been gaining ground.
The present situation, the columnist Ivan Rioufol in Le Figaro suggests, is the result of the "cowardice" of all of the leaders who have ruled the country for decades:
"At the source of French misfortune, there are French traitors who bear French first names. They have been abusing the voters' trust for more than 40 years. They lied about the real state of society and ransacked the country".
"A gunpowder smell spreads over the country," wrote the essayist, Maxime Tandonnet. "Never since the Liberation, even in the worst times, has a team in power been hated so much. The vast majority of the people reject it to a point that is difficult to express. "
He added that he hopes "one or more heroes will emerge from the apocalypse". At the moment, regrettably, no hero is in sight.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
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The growing dispute between revolution and state in Iran
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/June 08/2020
On more than one occasion, I have mentioned the deep rifts between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular army in Iran. These differences are as old as the regime itself and their root causes are Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei. Both these leaders supported one of them and stigmatized the other as a traitor. In addition, they generously showered one of them with gifts and denied the other, even though the regular army is older and has more experience than the IRGC.
The primary reason behind Khomeini establishing the IRGC was his distrust of the regular army, because he feared that the existing military establishment was loyal to the former regime. As a result of this, he worked to marginalize the army. Despite the passage of several generations, this view of the army still prevails among Tehran’s leadership.
It is common knowledge that, although the army has approximately three times more personnel than the IRGC, its budget is only a third of that of the IRGC. It appears as if Khamenei, the supreme leader of the armed forces, has handed the IRGC control of the army’s budget.
It is also widely known that the IRGC has been financially helped by the Iranian leadership to become a state within a state, being awarded investment and commercial contracts worth tens of billions of dollars. In addition, the IRGC’s tax-exempt status and other privileges have led to its affiliated economic enterprises out-competing and wiping out independent traders in Iran’s traditional bazaar.
The IRNA, an Iranian state-run news agency, last week posted online a televised interview with Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, the former chief of the Iranian navy and current coordinating deputy of the Iranian army. The revealing interview was quickly taken down again, without any reason being given or any announcement of its deletion. Despite this, nearly 13 minutes of the interview was saved and widely circulated.
The interview provides critical insights into how Iranian media bodies (Seda va Sima), whose heads are appointed by Khamenei himself, and the state-run cinema industry cover issues related to the regular army. The interview indicated that the Iranian army is regularly subjected to slander, malicious gossip and backbiting by its IRGC peers. It is depicted as an entity lacking the adequate experience or courage to protect the country. It is regularly defamed in the Iranian media and via cinematic content produced by regime-affiliated bodies.
In one part of the interview, Sayyari says: “If you want to write down my statements, please do. The problem lies in you and those who preceded you. You didn’t care for the army.” He added: “Some come to us and say, ‘Where are your pictures from while you were engaged in so-and-so military operations?’ But, in the army, no one can enter the command office while carrying a camera. What should we do? These are the instructions of the army. Surely they have interests lying in this. Surely there are pictures of the army. Look at the other branches in the popular forces — the Basij and the IRGC. Each of these groups has a photographer accompanying them wherever they go.”
Commenting on the IRGC-controlled state media bodies shaping a negative picture of the army and the supreme leader’s glorification of the IRGC, Sayyari said: “As to the production of documentaries to let coming generations benefit from such experiences, this is a good thing. But we don’t think that any move or action taken by the army should be covered by the media.” He continued: “Is the work done by armies around the world covered by the media? This does not happen because the army only performs its duties. There is no reason to cover every single act it does. Are we a company manufacturing branded items for us to promote our work or a firm producing construction materials?” Here, Sayyari appears to explicitly criticize the IRGC, whose leaders are always keen to appear in the media. These remarks also indicate Sayyari’s professionalism and his grasp of the role, nature, and missions of armies around the world.
Answering the interviewer’s point that some reports and military experts have stated publicly that Iran’s army has done nothing or offers nothing, Sayyari said: “In any operation, you cannot prove that the army did not perform its duty or that its artillery, air defense or air force were unprepared. As to the naval forces, these are all from the army. The IRGC’s naval force was formed in 1986. Before this time, all the naval forces were affiliated with the army.”
He went on to say: “When you establish a new organization, can you train and educate many people within six months and easily equip them with apparatuses such as ships and speedboats? Therefore, can we say that the army did not exist? You produce a film in which you display that a person kills an entire army using a gun in 24 hours. Therefore, he kills 12 armies in 12 days. But the truth is anyone who goes to war knows that things are not that easy.” Here, Sayyari again criticized the IRGC’s policy of glorifying its role via state-run media bodies or by producing self-promoting and self-funded movies and documentaries.
As news of Sayyari’s interview spread, many Iranians reacted with strong agreement, reiterating the widespread belief that Iran’s leadership is engaged in a systematic policy of marginalizing the army.
The professionalism of the regular army has been lauded by observers, as well as its mission and lack of involvement in politics. In addition, it is believed to have an efficient administrative system and, unlike the IRGC, it is not tainted with corruption scandals. Also, many of those who commented on the interview emphasized that the army is the last line of defense and the only hope for fulfilling their national dreams and aspirations.
Such comments and praise indicate that the regular army enjoys a positive image among young Iranians. Maybe the reason for this is that, from their perspective, the army has not been engaged in the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters and does not have blood on its hands, unlike the IRGC or Basij, which are the leadership’s main tools when it comes to cracking down on the Iranian people.
The Iranian army is regularly subjected to slander, malicious gossip and backbiting by its IRGC peers.
The timing of Sayyari’s comments is also significant, as some in Iran believe that he and other commanders see the end of the Iranian regime as being imminent and are preparing to jump from the ship before it sinks.
It seems that Sayyari will not be able to avoid the consequences of his comments, even though they appear to reflect the viewpoint of a large percentage of the Iranian army’s commanders. There are reports of tremendous pressure being imposed on Sayyari to appear in the media again to retract his statements or make it clear they reflect his own viewpoint, not that of the military establishment to which he belongs. There is also speculation that Sayyari soon could be summoned for trial before a military court and be forced to take early retirement.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami