English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 27/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july27.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Your eye is the lamp of your body. If your
eye is healthy, your whole body is full of light
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Luke 11/33-36/:”‘No one after lighting a lamp puts it in a cellar, but on the
lampstand so that those who enter may see the light. Your eye is the lamp of
your body. If your eye is healthy, your whole body is full of light; but if it
is not healthy, your body is full of darkness. Therefore consider whether the
light in you is not darkness. If then your whole body is full of light, with no
part of it in darkness, it will be as full of light as when a lamp gives you
light with its rays.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 26-26/2020
168 New COVID-19 Cases and Four Deaths in Lebanon
Abiad Warns Lebanon on Brink of 'Losing Control' in Virus Battle
Al-Rahi: Neutrality Restores Lebanon Historic Role, Govt. Must Reform
Electricity
Netanyahu Warns Lebanon, Syria over 'Any Attack from Their Territories'
UNIFIL peacekeeping force in Lebanon investigating civilian ramming of soldier
Israeli Drone Crashes into South Lebanon
17 Red Cross Medics Infected with COVID-19 in Zahle
Berri, Geagea Test Negative for Virus after LF MP Infected
Daher Tested for Virus, Urges Okais, Red Cross Medics to Repeat PCR
Kataeb: We opposed and never voted for Bisri Dam
IDF ups alert in Northern Command over concerns of Hezbollah terror
attack/Jerusalem Post/July 26/2020
Israeli Army Masses Forces in Golan Heights, Near Borders with Lebanon
Le Drian described as disappointed by Lebanese politicians’ performance
Could Lebanon be in the crosshairs of the US-China great power rivalry?/Raghida
Dergham/The National/July 26/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 26-26/2020
Conflicts in Syria, elsewhere will
intensify if Iran arms embargo lifted: Hook
Iran’s revenge against US killing of Soleimani is not over: Iran senior adviser
Iranian-American cleric found dead in Iran after being murdered over money:
Report
Explosion rocks military base near Baghdad: Iraqi military
Iraqi protesters gather in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square over electricity cuts
Civilians killed, wounded in car bomb explosion in Syria’s Ras al-Ayn
Sudan to deploy troops to conflict-stricken Darfur after string of violent
killings
Turkey sends Uighur refugees back to China through third countries: Report
8 Dead, 19 Hurt in Blast in Syrian Border Town
Growing Israel Protest Movement Calls for Netanyahu to Go
North Korea Declares Emergency over Suspected Virus Case
Tunisia Interior Minister Named New PM
Libya Govt. Disavows Visit by French Uprising Champion
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 26-26/2020
Restoring Iraq as the beating heart of Arab commerce/Baria
Alamuddin/Arab News/July 26, 2020
Iran regime sees Biden as its way out of crisis/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/July 26, 2020
Iran-China deal’s repercussions for the region/Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab
News/July 26, 2020
Containment of Turkey a far better strategy than confrontation/Dr. Dania
Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/July 26/2020
Iraqi PM focused on ending country’s conflicts/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/July 26,
2020
Coronavirus: Gulf universities can learn from Oxford’s COVID-19 vaccine
project/Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/July 26/2020
Shifting sands in the House of Saud with a king's declining health/Simon
Henderson/The Hill/July 26/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 26-26/2020
168 New COVID-19 Cases and Four Deaths in Lebanon
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Lebanon recorded 168 new COVID-19 cases and four more deaths over the past 24
hours, the Health Ministry said on Sunday evening. The new cases raise the
country’s overall tally since February 21 to 3,746 while the fatalities take the
death toll to 51.
The number of recoveries has meanwhile reached 1,692. 152 of the new cases were
recorded among residents and 16 among expats. As for PCR tests, 4,588 ones were
carried out for residents over the past 24 hours and 2,639 were conducted at
Beirut’s airport for arriving expats. 137 patients were meanwhile hospitalized
for coronavirus over the past 24 hours, including 34 who were admitted into
intensive care units.Health Minister Hamad Hasan has warned that the coronavirus
pandemic has reached a “dangerous juncture” in Lebanon. The country has
gradually lifted lockdown measures and opened Beirut airport to commercial
flights at the start of July, after a closure of more than three months. Over
the past two weeks, the daily infection rate has risen, with dozens of new cases
announced each day.
At the height of summer, some beaches and bars are again thronging with people.
Lebanon’s government-linked anti-coronavirus committee has meanwhile recommended
a one-week closure of pubs, nightclubs, internal pools, concert venues,
theaters, cinemas, amusement parks, indoor and outdoor children playgrounds,
gyms, popular souks and social event venues except for wedding venues. The
recommendation, however, has not yet been endorsed by the government nor by the
relevant ministries.
Abiad Warns Lebanon on Brink of 'Losing Control' in Virus Battle
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Doctor Firass Abiad, head of the main public hospital treating COVID-19 patients
in Lebanon, warned Sunday that the country is on the brink of “losing control”
in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic, a day after it saw its highest
daily tally since the first case was recorded on February 21. “Lebanon stands on
a knife-edge,” Abiad, who is the manager and CEO of the Rafik Hariri University
Hospital, cautioned in a series of English-language tweets. Prime Minister
Hassan Diab’s adviser “Petra Khoury, candidly, shared… figures showing a large
rise in #Covid19 cases and predicted ‘horrific’ developments unless we change
course,” Abiad, who is also an educator at the American University of Beirut and
a surgeon, added. He said that considering the incubation period of the virus,
any counter-measure “requires at least two weeks to show an impact.”
“Partial lockdowns take longer than full lockdowns to slow the pandemic. With
#Covid19, time is a commodity in short supply,” Abiad warned. Noting that
stricter measures at community or airport level in addition to partial lockdowns
“can slow the rise in numbers,” the top doctor pointed out that it will require
“a major change in public attitude and conduct, and a much harsher approach by
authorities in enforcing the measures.”“At this stage, it may not be
sufficient,” he cautioned. He added that the other option is to “go into a full
lockdown for a specified period.”“This is easier to implement by the
authorities, does not depend on choice by a noncompliant public, and will allow
a better control of the pandemic. The economic consequences, however, will be
severe,” Abiad said. He added: “Before we make a decision, let us confess that
the last months were not well managed. Our initial success was wasted. If
lessons are not learned, even lockdown will not save us. However, playing the
blame game and political point scoring is a luxury we cannot currently
afford.”Abiad said “areas for improvement” include the preparedness of hospitals
and their intensive care units, the duty of the private health sector, the
compliance of different economic sectors, public awareness and attitude, the use
of digital tracking, and the severity and equal application of punitive
measures.
“Personally, I believe we are on the brink of losing control. We need a timeout.
It will allow us to reorganize, get our act together. We won the first battle,
but this is a war. The initiative should not be lost. Sometimes one takes a step
backward to move two steps forward,” Abiad went on to say.
Lebanon is poised to take strict and mandatory measures as of Monday in a bid to
contain a resurgence of the virus in the country. Health Minister Hamad Hasan
said the measures involve fining those who don’t abide by mask-wearing
instructions and detaining expats coming from abroad if they do not respect
quarantine rules.Lebanon’s government-linked anti-coronavirus committee has
meanwhile recommended a one-week closure as of Monday of pubs, nightclubs,
internal pools, concert venues, theaters, cinemas, amusement parks, indoor and
outdoor children playgrounds, gyms, popular souks and social event venues except
for wedding venues. Lebanon on Saturday confirmed 175 COVID-19 cases, its
highest daily tally since the first case was detected on February 21. The cases
raised the country’s overall tally to 3,582 cases -- among them 908 Lebanese
expats. The tally includes 47 deaths and 1,671 recoveries.
Al-Rahi: Neutrality Restores Lebanon Historic Role, Govt.
Must Reform Electricity
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday said neutrality would “restore
Lebanon’s historic role as a bridge between the East and the West at the
cultural, economic and commercial levels.”Stressing the importance of the
country’s “liberal economy and democratic openness,” al-Rahi said neutrality
would strengthen domestic unity, safeguard Lebanon’s “entity, sovereignty and
independence,” and enhance “national partnership, stability and good
governance.”“Through the power of the constitution, National Pact, law and
institutions, the State would be able to defend itself in the face of any
attack. Externally, neutrality is refraining from engaging in regional and
international alliances, conflicts and wars, especially those that have direct
negative repercussions on stability inside the State,” the patriarch added, in
his Sunday Mass sermon. Separately, al-Rahi called on the government and
political officials to “rise above personal rifts and work together to achieve
Lebanon’s rise through carrying out reforms.”He said the reforms should begin
with the electricity sector and should include “a judicial fight against the
rampant corruption which is increasing without any conscience check or fear,”
citing the latest busting of huge quantities of spoiled foodstuffs.
Netanyahu Warns Lebanon, Syria over 'Any Attack from Their
Territories'
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday warned Lebanon and Syria
over “any attack against Israel emanating from their territories.”“Regarding the
northern front, we are acting according to our consistent policy of not allowing
Iran to entrench militarily on our northern border. Lebanon and Syria bear the
responsibility for any attack against Israel emanating from their territories,”
Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly Cabinet meeting. “We will not allow
our security to be undermined; neither will we allow our citizens to be
threatened. We will not tolerate attacks on our forces,” he added. “Together
with the Defense Minister and the Chief-of-Staff, I am holding ongoing
assessments of the situation. The IDF (Israeli army) is prepared to respond to
any threat,” Netanyahu went on to say. Israeli army helicopters on Friday struck
military targets in southern Syria in retaliation for earlier "munitions" fire
towards the occupied Golan Heights from inside Syria. A vehicle and a civilian
building were damaged, according to an Israeli army statement. Israel did not
directly blame Syrian forces for the munitions fire, but said it held the
Damascus government responsible for the incident. Israel has over the past days
announced a reinforced troop presence on its northern border. Several Israeli
media outlets reported that the moves were made in response to an increased
threat from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hizbullah, which also has a significant
presence in Syria. Last Monday, five Iran-backed fighters were killed in an
Israeli missile strike south of the Syrian capital Damascus. Hizbullah said one
of its fighters was among the dead and its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had
warned in the past that the killing of any Hizbullah member in Syria would not
go unpunished.
UNIFIL peacekeeping force in Lebanon investigating civilian ramming of soldier
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 26 July 2020
The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is investigating an incident where
a member of the Spanish contingent was rammed by a civilian vehicle in south
Lebanon on Sunday. “At the moment we just have the investigation ongoing of the
incident involving Spanish contingent and civilians,” UNIFIL Spokesperson Andrea
Tenenti told Al Arabiya English. In a video verified by Tenenti, the driver of
what appears to be a pickup truck refused to stop near a UNIFIL patrol vehicle
along a dirt road. An armed UNIFIL soldier fired a shot in the air as the driver
rammed into him. Tenenti said that the incident took place in the area of
“Wazzani Sector East.”Wazzani is in south Lebanon’s Nabatieh, near the occupied
Golan Heights.
Israeli Drone Crashes into South Lebanon
Naharnet/July 26/2020
An Israeli reconnaissance drone crashed Sunday evening into Lebanese territory,
the Israeli army said. The Israeli military said the drone was on a mission over
the border area. It added that no classified information was compromised as a
result of the crash.
The incident comes amid heightened tensions on Israel’s borders with Lebanon and
Syria. The tensions surged after an Israeli airstrike in Syria killed five
Iran-backed fighters including a member of Lebanon’s Hizbullah. Hizbullah chief
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had vowed that the group would retaliate to the killing
of any of its fighters in Israeli strikes in Syria.
17 Red Cross Medics Infected with COVID-19 in Zahle
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Seventeen medics from the Zahle department of the Lebanese Red Cross have tested
positive for COVID-19, the organization said on Sunday. The Red Cross said virus
tests were carried out for all of the department’s medics after one of them
tested positive. The medic likely contracted the virus after transporting his
cousin to hospital in a civilian car following a gas cylinder explosion at a
house in Zahle’s al-Karak area on July 21, the Red Cross said in a statement.
“They have been quarantined and the tests will be repeated during and after the
quarantine period. Those who came in contact with them and the medics’ families
will also undergo lab tests to confirm if they are infected,” the organization
added. Lebanon on Saturday confirmed 175 COVID-19 cases, its highest daily tally
since the first case was detected on February 21.
The cases raised the country’s overall tally to 3,582 cases -- among them 908
Lebanese expats. The tally includes 47 deaths and 1,671 recoveries.
Berri, Geagea Test Negative for Virus after LF MP Infected
Naharnet/July 26/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and MP Alain
Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement tested negative for COVID-19 after MP George
Okais of the LF announced that he had contracted the virus. As al-Jadeed TV
reported that Berri tested negative for the virus, Geagea’s press office
declared that “after it turned out that MP George Okais of the Strong Republic
bloc is infected with coronavirus, LF leader Samir Geagea underwent a PCR test
yesterday and the result came out negative.” MP Alain Aoun meanwhile tweeted
that he also tested negative. “Once I learned of the infection of my colleague
George Okais, whom we meet daily in the meetings of several committees the last
of which was on Thursday, I underwent a PCR test and my result came out
negative,” he said. Media reports said a lot of MPs and parliament employees had
also started undergoing PCR tests as of Saturday afternoon. Deputy PM and
Defense Minister Zeina Akar for her part said she tested negative after her
daughter contracted the virus. The developments prompted Parliament’s General
Secretariat to postpone all meetings of the parliamentary committees that had
been scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. Berri has also asked lawmakers to undergo
PCR tests as of Monday. Okais had announced Saturday that he tested himself for
the virus upon learning that his friend Hadi al-Hashem, the director of the
Foreign Minister’s office, was infected with coronavirus. “He is a friend whom I
regularly meet,” Okais said. “I have tested positive with a low viral load and
no symptoms until the moment. I will quarantine myself for two full days and
will repeat the test on Monday,” he added. Lebanon is poised to take strict and
mandatory measures as of Monday in a bid to contain a resurgence of the virus in
the country. Health Minister Hamad Hasan said the measures involve fining those
who don’t abide by mask-wearing instructions and detaining expats coming from
abroad if they do not respect quarantine rules. Lebanon’s government-linked
anti-coronavirus committee has meanwhile recommended a one-week closure as of
Monday of pubs, nightclubs, internal pools, concert venues, theaters, cinemas,
amusement parks, indoor and outdoor children playgrounds, gyms, popular souks
and social event venues except for wedding venues. Lebanon on Saturday confirmed
175 COVID-19 cases, its highest daily tally since the first case was detected on
February 21. The cases raised the country’s overall tally to 3,582 cases --
among them 908 Lebanese expats. The tally includes 47 deaths and 1,671
recoveries.
Daher Tested for Virus, Urges Okais, Red Cross Medics to Repeat PCR
Naharnet/July 26/2020
MP Michel Daher of the Strong Lebanon bloc announced Sunday that he and all his
family members have tested negative for coronavirus. “I wish recovery for the
colleague George Okais and all the Red Cross medics in Zahle, hoping that they
will repeat their tests, because results issued by the al-Maalaqa public
hospital have become in question after what happened with my daughter and the
inaccurate results that came out,” Daher tweeted. Okais had on Saturday
announced that he had tested positive for coronavirus albeit with “a low viral
load and no symptoms,” prompting top politicians such as Speaker Nabih Berri and
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to undergo PCR tests. Berri has also asked
all lawmakers to undergo PCR tests after Okais’ announcement. The Lebanese Red
Cross meanwhile announced on Sunday that 17 of its medics in Zahle had tested
positive for the virus. The developments come amid a major spike in coronavirus
cases in Lebanon.
Kataeb: We opposed and never voted for Bisri Dam
NNA/July 26/2020
The Lebanese Kataeb Party's legislative and public policy branch denied, in an
issued statement on Sunday, the recent circulated news via social media about
the Party's position on the Bisri Dam project, deeming it "false information".
"The Kataeb opposed from the very first moment the establishment of a dam
project in Bisri, just as they opposed the construction of other dams which were
proven by geological and environmental impact studies to be harmful and
unsuccessful," the statement indicated. It added that "former Economy Minister
Alain Hakim had refused to sign a draft law to conclude a construction and
development loan agreement between the Lebanese Republic and the World Bank to
execute a water supply enhancement project.""The Kataeb deputies never voted for
this project, but rather refused to participate in any legislative process in
light of the presidential vacuum, as it was a flagrant violation of the Lebanese
Constitution, and they boycotted the legislative session held in November 2015
during which the Bisri Dam bill was approved," the statement underlined.
IDF ups alert in Northern Command over concerns of
Hezbollah terror attack
جيرازولم بوست: الجيش الإسرائيلي في حالة تأهب عالية على الحدود مع لبنان تحسباً
لهجمات قد يقوم بها حزب الله
Jerusalem Post/July 26/2020
The Lebanese terror group has warned it will revenge the death of one of its
fighters killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria on Monday
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi toured northern Israel on Saturday,
less than a day after the military upped its alert in the northern command out
of concern of an attack by Hezbollah following threats by the terrorist group
over the death of one of its fighters.
Kochavi, who spent the evening at the Kirya Military Headquarters in Tel Aviv,
met with troops from Division 91 (Galilee Division) along with the Head of the
Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram, the Head of Military Intelligence
Maj.-Gen. Tamir Heyman and Division 91 Commander Brig.-Gen. Shlomi Binder.
“The Chief of Staff heard an intelligence review, held a situational assessment
and reviewed the operation of troops with various means,” the IDF said in a
statement.
Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz, who also took part in
the situation assessment, instructed the IDF to continue to increase readiness
in the north and to use the necessary measures in order to prevent any violation
of Israeli sovereignty.
According to a statement released by his office, Gantz warned that Lebanon and
Syria would “bear direct responsibility for any action taken from their
territory.”
On Friday, following a situational assessment and in accordance with the
Northern Command’s defense plan, the military said it will be making changes to
troop deployment by reinforcing units and artillery batteries, as well as
enhancing field intelligence in the area “with the goal of strengthening
defenses along the northern border.”
The military deployed troops to Division 91 and 210 Bashan Division along with
artillery and intelligence troops. Iron Dome missile defense batteries were also
on alert as well as Israel Air Force jets.
The military also moved some troops deeper into Israel out of their positions
directly along the border, so that they would not be a target for Hezbollah.
The moves are part of the military’s strengthening of power and readiness in
anticipation of any retaliation by the Lebanese Shi’ite terror group, which it
expects against IDF troops or a military installation along the border, but not
civilians.
Hezbollah has pledged in the past to retaliate for any fighter that is killed by
alleged Israeli airstrikes in Syria and the IDF on Friday warned Beirut that it
“holds the Lebanese government responsible for all actions emanating from
Lebanon.”
On Friday morning explosions were heard along the border with Syria, with
shrapnel apparently damaging a nearby Israeli civilian car and building near the
Druze town of Majdal Shams. It is unclear whether the explosions were caused by
a mortar or anti-aircraft fire from Syrian territory.
The IDF said it was looking into the nature of the explosions and that while
there were no injuries, the military viewed the incident as severe.
Later that night, IAF attack helicopters struck several Syrian Arab Army
targets, including observation posts and intelligence facilities in bases near
the town of Quneitra. According to Syrian media, two military personnel were
wounded in the strikes.
“The IDF sees the Syrian regime as responsible for the fire earlier today and
will continue to act with determination, retaliating for every violation of the
sovereignty of the State of Israel,” the military said in a statement.
Also on Friday,. Kochavi met with US Army General and Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, who landed in Israel to discuss Iran and its
proxies like Hezbollah, and stressed that the IDF will continue to defend the
State of Israel.
“We are preparing for a variety of scenarios and will act to the extent
necessary to remove any threat that endangers the sovereignty of Israel or its
citizens,” he said.
Following threats by the group’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that the
entire northern front is open for retaliation, the IDF also decided to close
several roads along the Lebanese and Syrian borders to military vehicles
beginning Friday at 8:00 p.m.
The roads remained open for civilian cars along with tourist sites.
While there is no current restriction on civilian movement, there is the
possibility that farmers will be restricted in a limited number of zones near
the fence. In addition, access roads to a number of communities where the
military has a presence and are exposed to attack will be blocked and
alternative routes will be opened for residents to enter. Baram, who met with
the heads of regional councils in the North earlier in the day, said that the
military is “making every effort” to make sure the daily routine of residents
will not be disrupted.
“Our main task even these days is to maintain the security of northern
residents,” he said, adding that the military intends to allow tourism and
agriculture to continue and that it “will continue to prepare as needed to
defend [the area] and for operational activities as necessary.”
On Thursday the military deployed reinforcements – one battalion and a number of
additional troops – to the Northern Command’s Galilee Division due to the
heightened tensions.
Earlier in the week, Hezbollah announced that one of its members was killed in
an alleged Israeli airstrike in Damascus on Monday night. The strike targeted
several sites around the capital including a major ammunition depot and killed
several Iranian and Syrian personnel as well as Hezbollah member Ali Kamel
Mohsen.
Following the alleged Israeli strikes on Monday, the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar
reported that Hezbollah had raised its alert level “to monitor activities” of
IDF soldiers along the border between the two countries, and statements
attributed to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah suggested that Israel
should be wary of an attack. Last week Lt.-Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the Head of
the US Central Command, warned the group against attacking Israel in light of
pressures it is facing due to the economic crisis in Lebanon, saying that it
wouldn’t end well.
“I think it would be a great mistake for Hezbollah to try to carry out
operations against Israel. I can’t see that having a good ending,” he told
journalists in a telephone briefing. While several Hezbollah terrorists have
been killed in alleged Israeli airstrikes in Syria over the past year, it was
the first time that the group confirmed the death of one since August when two
militants and an Iranian were killed in an IAF strike targeting an IRGC cell,
which Israel claimed was about to launch armed drones against targets in
northern Israel. Following the strike, the IDF had raised its alert expecting a
limited response against military targets. A week later, Hezbollah fired three
anti-tank guided missiles towards an IDF post and military ambulance near the
towns of Avivim and Yiron in northern Israel. There were no casualties in the
incident. Israel responded by firing over 100 artillery shells towards targets
in south Lebanon including an airstrike on the Hezbollah cell which carried out
the attack.
Israeli Army Masses Forces in Golan Heights, Near Borders
with Lebanon
Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 26 July, 2020
After the intense bombing by the Israeli army in southern Syria, just before
midnight on Friday, Israeli leaders announced taking a series of measures in
anticipation of the response to bombing from Syria or Lebanon. In a series of
statements that followed the bombing of Syrian territory, the Israeli army
announced that it is taking measures to prepare for a ruthless response to any
attempt on escalating tensions. The Israeli army held the Syrian regime
responsible for the tensions and threatened to respond with determination to
anyone who dares touch on Israel’s sovereignty.Military sources in Tel Aviv said
that a mortar shell was fired towards one of Israel’s northern communities. The
shell was fired from al-Khodr village which faces Israel’s Majdal Shams. Some
tied the shelling to the Lebanon-based Hezbollah attacks last year, with some
saying that the shelling was retaliation for Hezbollah losing one of its
commanders in an Israeli airstrike. Israeli sources, however, refused to link
the shelling to Hezbollah, saying that the latter did not respond because it is
confused and knows that Israel will not remain silent. An Israeli military
spokesman threatened with "a very lethal response."
The Israeli army began on Thursday deploying military reinforcements on the
border with Lebanon “in accordance with the situational assessment." It also
announced earlier that it had decided to send military reinforcements and deploy
its forces on the border with Lebanon.
“Given the assessment of the situation (...) it was decided to send a specific
infantry reinforcement to the northern military command on the border with
Lebanon," Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee was quoted as saying. The army
statement did not reveal any further details about the reason for the move, or
the size of the reinforcements that Israel intends to send to the border area.
Tension suddenly surfaced again on the Lebanese-Israeli border when Israel
carried out a missile strike south of the Syrian capital that killed five
including a Hezbollah fighter. Hezbollah announced the killing of Ali Mohsen (Jawad)
in the Israeli raid on a site near Damascus airport.
Le Drian described as disappointed by Lebanese politicians’ performance
The Arab Weekly/July 26/2020
BEIRUT - At the end of his visit to Lebanon, France’s top diplomat Jean-Yves Le
Drian was described by Lebanese sources as feeling deeply disappointment at the
performance of the political elite in the country and the pace of reforms,
warning that any international assistance hinged on urgent action.
“Lebanon is on the verge of the abyss. But there are ways on the table to fix
this,” he said during a visit Friday to a school in Mechref district, south of
the capital, Beirut. Le Drian, who arrived here late Wednesday, urged Lebanese
officials to go through with an audit of the country’s central bank, reform a
bloated and highly indebted electricity sector and maintain an independent
judiciary. After meetings with President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan
Diab and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday, Le Drian said the time is
critical. “What I want to tell those responsible in Lebanon today is, ‘help
yourselves and France and its partners will help you’,” he said. “It is the key
message of my visit.”Le Drian’s patience was clearly wearing thin as he dished
out more criticism during an afternoon visit to Amel, a charity in southern
Beirut that helps some of Lebanon’s most vulnerable. “I was reading in Lebanese
newspapers that Lebanon was waiting for Le Drian. No, it’s France that’s waiting
for Lebanon,” he said.France has previously organised conferences that pledged
assistance to Lebanon but demanded reforms to the public sector and governance.
Le Drian said France has already donated €50 million ($58 million), primarily to
the health care sector to deal with the coronavirus challenge. The visiting
diplomat pledged Friday €15 million — about $17 million — in aid to Lebanon’s
schools, struggling under the weight of the country’s economic crisis.
Le Drian said France will not let the “Lebanese youth alone” face the crisis
that has hit the education sector hard.
Schools have let some teachers and administrators go and many face the risk of
closure. Many parents, struggling to pay private school fees, have enrolled
their children in already overcrowded public schools. The French assistance will
go to a network of over 50 French and Francophone schools. Though Le Drian’s
focus was on the economy, he also criticised Iran-backed Hezbollah, without
naming the group, by calling for the Lebanese Army to exert control over all of
the country’s territory. With his Lebanese counterpart on his side, Le Drian
vowed support to Lebanon’s military.”We will maintain our support to the
Lebanese army, the cornerstone of this state, and to the security forces which,
together, play a crucial role in ensuring the security and stability of the
country,” he said in an implicit disavowal of Hezbollah’s attempts at acting as
a state-within-the-state.
“It is essential that the Lebanese state asserts its authority and control over
all of its territory,” he added in a thinly-veiled allusion to the Iran-backed
Shia party’s ambitions. He also called on Lebanon to distance itself from
regional crises, in a clear reference to Hezbollah’s military intervention in
Syria.
Le Drian also spoke of the crisis of the electricity sector in Lebanon, which
was caused mainly by Gebran Bassil, the President of the Free Patriotic
Movement. Bassil has been accused of corruption that caused heavy losses in the
electricity sector, raising the public debt to about 40 billion dollars.
Commenting on the French foreign minister’s visit, Member of the Strong Republic
parliamentary bloc, MP Pierre Bouassi, said that “the disregard of national
affairs and the fate of the Lebanese people prompted French Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian to visit Lebanon, conveying a direct message that there will
be no solution or any assistance, if no serious reforms are implemented.”
“Lebanon needs a strong diplomacy to extend security and cultural bridges with
the world.” Bouassi said. “We isolated ourselves by ourselves, and our diplomacy
in the last four years has been very bad. There is a real cooling in Lebanon’s
relations with other countries and Bassil’s management of the diplomatic file
was disastrous. Now we are reaping the results,” he added. Bouassi also
criticised Hezbollah as the main political player that has dragged the country
into regional crises, calling for the necessity of building on the initiative of
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai that calls for Lebanon’s neutrality.
The economic crisis has impacted almost all facets of life in Lebanon, a small
Mediterranean country long considered a middle-income state. Since last year,
unemployment has risen and poverty deepened, as foreign currency dried up and
the national currency lost more than 80% of its value against the dollar.
On Thursday, Le Drian said the only way out of the financial and economic crisis
is for Lebanon to secure a programme with the International Monetary Fund.
France and its allies would then be able to secure assistance to Lebanon, he
said.
Talks with the IMF have been bogged down in internal political disputes and
struggles over who is to blame for banking losses.
Lebanon is facing a new surge in coronavirus cases, recently recording
three-digit numbers of cases a day — a spike from before it eased restrictions
in July. So far, Lebanon has reported more than 3,200 cases, including 43 deaths
from the virus. During lunch with Le Drian on Thursday, Hadi Al-Hashem, a
Foreign Ministry official, got the news that he had tested positive for the
virus. Al-Hashem told Lebanon’s Al-Jadeed TV that he has no symptoms. But his
test result prompted Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti and other officials
to get tested, and they were negative, the report said.
A French diplomat at the embassy in Beirut said the French delegation took all
precautions and respected social distancing during meetings. The diplomat spoke
on condition of anonymity as he wasn’t authorised to talk to reporters.
Could Lebanon be in the crosshairs of the US-China great
power rivalry?
Raghida Dergham/The National/July 26/2020
Maybe not yet. But even as Tehran prepares to double down in Beirut,
Washington and Beijing may eventually jockey for influence there.
As the US-China stand-off potentially reaches the point of no-return, there are
growing fears across the globe about the implications of the tense relations
between the two giants, each seeking to deny the other global supremacy. Recent
developments in Hong Kong, where China imposed a new national security law, have
exacerbated the recent strategic shift in their dynamic spurred on by the
coronovarus pandemic and a trade war.
Now the US will seek to thwart a possible China-Iran pact by using sanctions to
block financial transactions and by punishing Chinese banks. It may also attempt
to block military deals between the two countries by lobbying to renew an arms
embargo on Iran in the UN Security Council. China will perhaps be anxious about
the repercussions of any sanctions on its financial system.
I believe Lebanon may prove useful to Beijing, which could seek to leverage that
country’s financial system to avoid US sanctions. This, however, could lead to
complications for Lebanon, which finds itself being swallowed up by the Iranian
regime through its proxy Hezbollah. Speculation is rife amid reports indicating
that Hezbollah recently obtained financial assistance from Tehran, which had in
turn received funds from Beijing, as an incentive for clinching a deal.
Over the next couple of weeks, senior Hezbollah leaders are scheduled to visit
Tehran to finalise a strategy for the coming few months. Meanwhile, Iran is
preparing to leverage its influence in Lebanon and Iraq to serve its objectives
in of thwarting US and Israeli interests in the region.
I am reliably informed that Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
intends to attempt to secure by the end of 2020 full-scale control of Lebanon by
Hezbollah. Lebanon might also serve as a key base from which to take unspecified
measures against Israel in September. The decision for the same is likely to be
taken in an important meeting in two weeks.
Tehran may have chosen September for a combination of reasons. For one, it wants
to be prepared for Israel's proposed plan to annex parts of the West Bank.
Second, it seeks to hold Israel accountable for a series of sabotage attacks
that took place on its soil, including explosions inside some nuclear
facilities, which some experts believe may have been the handiwork of Tel Aviv.
Finally, Tehran believes that it is in its interests to create a crisis for US
President Donald Trump as he seeks re-election in November.
Iran's leaders believe that they have, in Lebanon, a wild card that they can use
to impact the US election by potentially escalating an unwanted situation come
September. Iraq, too, is an important asset for the regime in this regard.
Tehran perceives Washington to be in election mode and therefore less inclined
to intervene in the Middle East at least until November.
One of the problems is that the existence of Lebanon as we know it – a nation
that has long prided in its neutrality – is under threat.
"The tragedy of Lebanon is that no one really cares," the American conservative
commentator Danielle Pletka told me during the 12th e-policy circle of the
Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi. However, Ms Pletka said that Hezbollah is
in no condition to help Tehran if, for instance, it is asked to engage in a
military conflict with Israel.
Abdulaziz Sager, the founder and chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, said few
countries could help to fix Lebanon's myriad problems. "Maybe we need the
Lebanese civil society to step in again to try to re-fix the situation in
Lebanon," he said.
The question is, would China or Russia not be tempted to come to Beirut's
assistance? Perhaps not the latter, according to Dmitri Trenin, director of the
Carnegie Moscow Centre, even though he acknowledged Moscow's alliance of
convenience with Hezbollah in the ongoing Syrian civil war.
“The alliances that Russia has today are very different from the alliances of
the Soviet Union, or the alliances of the United States," he explained. "These
are situational alliances for limited space, limited objectives, limited length
of time."
He also pointed out that Russia does not support even Iranian policy across the
Middle East. "Russia is with Iran for a certain objective [influence in Syria].
And even in Syria, Russia and Iran are in fact competitors, and the asset is
playing one off the other," he said.
There is a school of thought that China, too, has very specific interests in the
region and would be wary of stepping into the geopolitical morass of the Middle
East. "China is about business at this point. It stays away from where it
doesn't have the competence or experience," Mr Trenin pointed out.
One cannot forget the fact that China has interests and strong relations
elsewhere in the region, such as in the Gulf. Beijing imports 32 per cent of its
oil from the Gulf region, including 1.7 million barrels per day from Saudi
Arabia. And yet, Mr Sager wondered if despite all this, Beijing is likely to
ignore these relations in the context of its relations with the US. He said:
"The whole US relation to China will have a massive impact on the Gulf."
It is not just the countries in the Middle East that are concerned by the
US-China tensions. The Russians and Europeans are, too. There seems to be a
sense that, even if Mr Trump were to lose in November, a president Joe Biden may
take the same hawkish approach towards Beijing.
Flourish logoA Flourish chart
I am given to understand that, following a meeting in Washington earlier this
month, a decision was reached at the highest level to create a multi-national
coalition against China. Steps are already being taken in the meantime:
expelling Chinese tech companies, shutting down consulates, attempting to thwart
a China-Iran deal, and blocking off Hong Kong's financial access to the world in
a way that would deny China any chance of leveraging the city’s economy to its
advantage.
China, of course, is not taking kindly to these steps, although it will also be
wary of escalating tensions.
But with changing times and contexts, one cannot rule out the possibility of
tiny Lebanon being drawn into the great power rivalry of the 21st century. By
focusing on the big picture, the Trump administration may be oblivious of
smaller countries. But it should know that one of the repercussions of an
economic collapse in Lebanon would be even greater Iranian, and possibly by the
extension of this greater Chinese, control there.
Whether Washington is mindful of this prospect now or later, Lebanon could on
the cusp of a new, dangerous chapter.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on July 26-26/2020
Conflicts in Syria, elsewhere will intensify if Iran arms
embargo lifted: Hook
AFP/Sunday 26 July 2020
The US special representative for Iran on Sunday sought to rally Gulf allies as
Washington tried to extend an arms embargo on Tehran, warning failure would
“intensify” regional conflicts. “I’ve spoken with leaders here in the Gulf and
around the world -- no one believes that Iran should be able to freely buy and
sell conventional weapons such as fighter jets... and various kinds of
missiles,” Brian Hook told journalists in an online briefing while on a visit to
Qatar. The United States has urged the UN Security Council to extend an arms
embargo on Iran that expires in October. The extension is opposed by
veto-wielding Russia and China, which stand to gain major arms contracts from
Iran. “If the Security Council fails to extend the arms embargo by October 18,
Iran will be able to freely buy and sell these weapons,” Hook said. Arab
Coalition, US Envoy Brian Hook reveal Iranian weapons used against Saudi Arabia.
“Imagine what the region will look like if this happens, conflicts in places
like Syria and Yemen will certainly intensify.”US arch-foe Iran is a key player
on the side of the Syrian government in the country’s conflict and is aligned
with Houthi militia in Yemen fighting the government, supported by the Arab
coalition. Washington has warned it could employ a disputed legal move to
restore wide UN sanctions on Iran if the Security Council does not prolong a ban
on conventional arms sales to the Islamic republic. The US envoy will visit
Kuwait on the next leg of his trip, having already visited Tunisia, a current
member of the Security Council.
Iran’s revenge against US killing of Soleimani is
not over: Iran senior adviser
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Monday 27 July 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s recent visit to Iran is an indication
of the depth in the ties between Tehran and Baghdad, a senior advisor to Iran’s
speaker of parliament said, adding that their revenge for the US killing of
Qassem Soleimani was “not over.”Iran and Iraq have had significant growth in
trade in recent years, the official IRNA news agency cited Amir Abdollahian as
saying on Sunday. Trade between the two countries currently stands at $14
billion a year, while in comparison, Iran’s trade with Europe “does not even
reach $3 billion,” Abdollahian said. PM al-Kadhimi arrived in Tehran on Tuesday
and met with senior Iranian officials including President Hassan Rouhani and
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The point of al-Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran
was to “further develop cooperation between Iran and Iraq,” Abdollahian said.
Iraq is an important neighbor with many commonalities with Iran, and the two
countries’ economies complement one another, he said. Iran’s revenge against the
US for killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem
Soleimani is not over, Abdollahian said. Khamenei had said during the meeting
with al-Kadhimi that Iran will never forget the US killing of Soleimani and
“will definitely strike a retaliatory blow to the Americans.”“When the Supreme
still talks about the assassination of Soleimani after a few months, it means
that revenge is still on the way and it sends a very strong message to the
people of the region, Iraq and the Americans,” Abdollahian said.
Soleimani, who headed the Quds Force, the overseas arms of the IRGC, was killed
in a US airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport on January 3. Iran
retaliated days later by launching a ballistic missile strike against military
bases in Iraq hosting US troops. Hours later, the IRGC shot down a Ukrainian
passenger plane over Tehran that it said it mistook for a cruise missile after
days of denying responsibility. “The Americans should know that Soleimani's
revenge is coming,” Abdollahian warned. He also warned that the US will suffer
“serious consequences” following its recent interception of an Iranian passenger
plane using warplanes. Iran said two US fighter jets flew close to a passenger
belonging to the IRGC-linked Mahan Air over Syrian airspace on Thursday forcing
the pilot to take emergency action and causing injuries to some passengers. US
Central Command (CENTCOM) insisted in a statement that it was a “professional
intercept… conducted in accordance with international standards.”
Iranian-American cleric found dead in Iran after being
murdered over money: Report
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 26 July 2020
An Iranian-American Zoroastrian cleric was found dead in southeast Iran
alongside two others, state media reported on Sunday. The dead bodies of
California-based Zoroastrian cleric Arash Kasravi and two of his acquaintances
were found at a villa in the city of Mahan in Kerman province, the semi-official
Tasnim news agency reported citing the province’s prosecutor Dadkhoda Salari.
Salari confirmed the three were murdered, saying: “Investigations indicate the
murders were financially motivated.”The police discovered $10,000 in one of the
victim’s cars, he said. Kasravi had received death threats in the past,
according to IranWire. “The source of these threats was unknown, but the subject
was mostly financial,” IranWire quoted a source close to Kasravi’s family as
saying. Kasravi had returned to his hometown in Kerman from the US to attend the
anniversary of his father’s death and to handle legal matters related to his
inheritance. Kasravi and his acquaintances had gone missing for several days
before their dead bodies were discovered. Kasravi, 53, immigrated to the US with
his family ten years ago. He worked at a Zoroastrian temple in California.
Explosion rocks military base near Baghdad: Iraqi military
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 26 July 2020
Explosions rocked a military compound in Baghdad Sunday, but the cause remains
unclear, an Iraqi military statement said. The initial explosions were reported
at al-Saqr military base.A statement from the Iraqi Media Security Cell said
that an ammunition warehouse belonging to the police exploded due to the high
temperatures and "poor storage."Civil Defense arrived on the scene, the
statement added. Multiple explosions could be heard in Baghdad on Sunday
evening. Security sources said the depot, which is part of a military base used
by both the police and paramilitary forces, was one that had caught fire in
August last year.That fire also set off explosions heard across Baghdad, killing
one person and injuring 29 others. There were no casualties reported immediately
on Sunday.
Iraqi protesters gather in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square over
electricity cuts
Joseph Haboush and Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Monday 27 July 2020
Dozens of Iraqi protesters gathered in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on Sunday night
to protest over electricity cuts and lack of public services, according to
videos being shared by activists. There were reports of several injuries and at
least one protester dying during the clashes with Iraqi security forces near
Tahrir square.Other reports by local media suggested that Iraqi security forces
fired tear gas canisters in a bid to crackdown on the nighttime protests. Iraqi
security forces reportedly raided tents in Tahrir Square and dispersed
protesters. Nationwide protests began late last year after Iraqis took to the
streets to demand the resignation of the government and renewed rejection of
Iranian influence in the country.
Civilians killed, wounded in car bomb explosion in Syria’s
Ras al-Ayn
Al Arabiya English/Sunday 26 July 2020
At least eight people, including civilians and a child, were killed and at least
19 others were wounded when a car bomb exploded in Syria’s Ras al-Ayn, state
news agency SANA and a monitor reported on Sunday. No further details on the
attack were provided and no one has yet to claim responsibility for the bombing.
The Syrian city has been under the control of the Turkish military since its
offensive began in October 2019.
Sudan to deploy troops to conflict-stricken Darfur after string of violent
killings
AFP/Sunday 26 July 2020
Sudan’s prime minister said Sunday the country would send security forces to
conflict-stricken Darfur to “protect citizens and the farming season.” Abdalla
Hamdok’s announcement came two days after gunmen in the region killed at least
20 civilians, including children, as they returned to their fields for the first
time in years, the latest in a string of violent incidents. The impoverished
western region has seen years of conflict since an ethnic minority uprising
prompted the government to launch a scorched-earth campaign that left 300,000
people dead and displaced 2.5 million. “A joint security force will be deployed
in the five states of the Darfur region to protect citizens during the farming
season,” Hamdok’s office said in a statement after he met a delegation of women
from the region. The force will include army and police forces, it said.
Violence in Darfur has eased since Bashir’s ouster by the army amid mass
protests against his rule last year, with a preliminary peace deal signed in
January between the government and a coalition of nine rebel groups, including
factions from the region.
Farmers displaced in the conflict have since started to return to their land
under a government-sponsored deal reached two months ago, in time for the
July-November planting season. But the bloodshed has continued, particularly
over land rights, according to expert Adam Mohammad. “The question of land is
one cause of the conflict,” he said. “During the war, peasants fled their lands
and villages to camps, and nomads replaced them and settled there.”On Friday,
armed men drove into a village and killed 20 civilians returning to their fields
for the first time in years, an eyewitness, and a tribal chief told AFP. In late
June and early July, hundreds of protesters camped for days outside a government
building in the Central Darfur town of Nertiti to demand that the government
beef up security after multiple killings and looting incidents on farmland and
properties. Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court over charges of
genocide and crimes against humanity in the conflict.
Turkey sends Uighur refugees back to China through third
countries: Report
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 26 July 2020
Turkey is sending Uighur refugees back home to China, where they face
imprisonment and persecution, through third countries like Tajikistan, the
Telegraph revealed on Sunday. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “is helping
China repatriate Muslim dissidents by sending them to third countries before
they return [to China],” the Telegraph reported. For decades Uighur Muslims have
sought refuge in Turkey from repression in China, which has detained one million
Uighurs in “reeducation camps” that reportedly force them to renounce their
religious identity. Beijing considers many Uighurs to be extremists and
dangerous to China’s national security. In the past, Erdogan, who styles himself
as a global Islamic leader, has called Chinese actions against Uighur Muslims in
China “genocide.”But recently his government has stopped speaking out against
Chinese treatment, a move the Telegraph says is likely economically motivated
and stems from Ankara’s desire for Chinese investment in Turkey.
From Turkey to Tajikistan to China
The Telegraph recounts the story of 59-year-old Aimuzi Kuwanhan, a Uighur who
fled China and sought sanctuary in Turkey, residing in state housing. After
disappearing last summer, she was traced to a detention center in the Turkish
city of Izmir, before being extradited to Tajikistan, according to the Telegraph
citing a lawyer hired by her family. “Sources who knew Kuwahan say from there
she was sent to China,” the newspaper said. Another Uighur woman, Zinntegul
Tursun, was also deported from Turkey to Tajikistan to China last year,
according to the Telegraph. These are not the first reports of the Turkish
government complying with Chinese requests against the Uighurs. US public media
outlet National Public Radio reported in March that Uighur refugee Abdurehim
Imin Parach, a longtime critic of Chinese treatment of Uighurs, was arrested in
Istanbul by Turkish policemen who “urged him not to speak out against
China.”“I’m not sure if China is putting pressure directly on the Turkish
government to control Uighurs here,” Parach said in an interview with NPR, “or
if Chinese agents have infiltrated Turkish society to frame us as terrorists.”
Uighur persecution in China
The Uighur population, an ethnic minority in China, are overwhelmingly Muslim
and reside in the northwestern Xinjiang region, which borders many countries
including Tajikistan. Since 2017, the Chinese government has systematically
cracked down on the community by detaining more than a million Uighur Muslims in
“reeducation camps,” according to US and UN estimates. Claiming that these
Uighurs in custody hold extremist views, Beijing detains them and forces them to
renounce Islam and live in prison-like conditions at the camps, former detainees
told The Globe and Mail in 2018.
Uighurs have been detained for attending services at mosques and texting about
the Qur’an, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
8 Dead, 19 Hurt in Blast in Syrian Border Town
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 26/2020
A bomb that exploded Sunday morning in a vegetable market in a north Syrian
border town controlled by Turkey-backed opposition fighters killed eight and
wounding 19, an opposition war monitor and the state news agency reported.
The blast scorched market stalls and scattered produce in the town of Ras al-Ayn
along the border with Turkey. The state news agency SANA said the blast was
caused by a car bomb while the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said the explosion was caused by a motorcycle rigged with explosives. The
Observatory said some of the wounded are in critical condition adding that the
dead included a woman and a child. Turkey's Defense Ministry blamed the attack
on Kurdish insurgents, as it has in dozens of other such incidents. Ankara has
blamed explosions that killed and wounded dozens of people in northeast Syria in
recent months on Kurdish fighters linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK,
which has waged a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey. It views the Kurdish
fighters as terrorists, though the same fighters had partnered with the U.S.
against the Islamic State group. Turkey controls most Syrian territory bordering
its southern frontier after a series of military operations. Last October,
Turkish troops crossed into Syria's northeast, capturing the Ras al-Ayn area in
driving Kurdish fighters away from the border after the U.S. withdrew most of
its forces from the region.
Growing Israel Protest Movement Calls for Netanyahu to Go
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 26/2020
"We won't leave until Bibi leaves." Israel's struggle to contain the coronavirus
has stirred deep-seated resentment towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
protests demanding his resignation are growing by the week. As the Shabbat
rest-day was ending on Saturday evening, thousands of demonstrators headed
towards Netanyahu's Jerusalem residence, a main site for protests that have
taken place in multiple cities. Some demonstrators branded Netanyahu -- who has
been indicted with bribery, fraud and breach of trust -- as corrupt, while
others condemned a lack of coherence in the government's response to the
pandemic. For Tamir Gay-Tsabary, who travels each day to the Jerusalem protests
with his wife Tami from southern Israel, coronavirus was "a trigger" that
brought renewed focus to Netanyahu's leadership faults. The pandemic made people
"understand that he doesn't care (about) Israel, he just cares for himself," the
56-year-old sales manager told AFP. Netanyahu won praise for his initial
response to the virus. His government's quick decisions in March to curb travel
and impose a lockdown brought the daily case-count to a trickle by early May.
But an economic re-opening that began in late April has led to an explosion in
transmission in the country of about 9 million people, with daily COVID-19
tallies ranging between 1,000 and 2,000 cases in recent weeks. Anti-government
protests that initially included a few hundred people in Tel Aviv, now regularly
count several thousand there and in Jerusalem. Reflecting on the movement, Einav
Schiff of the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said it began in response to "a
premature victory celebration for having defeated the coronavirus". That false
victory "morphed into a healthcare and economic failure, which has left a severe
crisis of confidence between the public and the government in its wake," he
said.
No 'plan'
In response to rising cases, Netanyahu's center-right coalition has re-imposed
economically painful restrictions, including targeting shops and markets. It has
also approved additional relief measures, notably cash deposits to all citizens.
Protester Amit Finkerstin said the government's recent moves reveal it does not
"have any plan," making it impossible for people to prepare for the future. The
27-year-old waitress, currently unemployed because of the pandemic, pointed to
restaurant closures as evidence of the policy chaos. On July 17, the government
announced restaurants would mainly be limited to delivery and takeaway. Four
days later, parliament overturned that decision. Then the government passed a
law allowing it to bypass parliament on coronavirus restrictions, casting
further uncertainty over the sector. "One day yes one day no," Finkerstin said.
"People can't earn any money." The government's plan to send at least 750
shekels ($220) to every citizen has been criticized by some economists as a
knee-jerk response to mounting economic suffering in place of smart, targeted
aid.
Finkerstin accused the government of giving everyone cash "just to shut our
mouth up." 'Something is happening' Netanyahu has taken responsibility for
re-opening the economy too soon, but said he was seeking a tricky balance
between protecting livelihoods and limiting viral transmission, a challenge
faced by many leaders. He has also acknowledged the financial pain felt by many
in a country where unemployment currently exceeds 20 percent, compared to 3.4
percent in February, when Israel recorded its first COVID-19 case.
But, in a series of tweets, Israel's longest-serving prime minister has also
sought to undermine the protests as a product of the "anarchist left" and
accused the media of exaggerating their size. In a July 19 tweet that dismissed
the protests as an "embarrassment and a disgrace," Netanyahu highlighted the
presence of a Palestinian flag at one rally, saying "the secret is out," about
the movement. Despite those dismissals, Schiff insisted that "something is
happening" in the protest movement known as "black flag". "We can all hear, see
and mainly feel it," he wrote on Sunday. "It isn't clear yet whether this is a
full-fledged earthquake or whether it is merely a tremor that will ultimately
pass, but it's everywhere."Israel's last major protest movement -- 2011
demonstrations over rising cost of living -- fizzled without large-scale impact.
North Korea Declares Emergency over Suspected Virus Case
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 26/2020
North Korean authorities have imposed a lockdown on the border city of Kaesong
after discovering what they say is the country's first suspected coronavirus
case, state media reported Sunday. Leader Kim Jong Un convened an emergency
politburo meeting on Saturday to implement a "maximum emergency system and issue
a top-class alert" to contain the virus, the official Korean Central News Agency
said. If confirmed, it would be the first officially recognized case of COVID-19
in North Korea, where medical infrastructure is seen as woefully inadequate to
deal with any epidemic. KCNA said a defector who had left for South Korea three
years ago returned on July 19 after "illegally crossing" the heavily fortified
border dividing the two countries. It is very rare for anyone to leave the South
through what is one of the world's most secure borders, replete with minefields
and guard posts.
But the South Korean military said there was a "high possibility" that a
defector had recently returned. A 24-year-old man is believed to have swum back
to the North after being investigated for rape allegations in the South,
according to multiple media reports and defectors. Pyongyang previously insisted
that not a single case of the coronavirus had been seen in the North despite the
pandemic sweeping the globe, and the country's borders remain closed. The
patient was found in Kaesong City, which borders South Korea, and "was put under
strict quarantine", as would any close contacts, KCNA said. It was a "dangerous
situation... that may lead to a deadly and destructive disaster", the agency
added. Kim was quoted as saying "the vicious virus could be said to have entered
the country", and officials on Friday took the "preemptive measure of totally
blocking Kaesong City". Nuclear-armed North Korea closed its borders in late
January as the virus spread in neighboring China. It imposed tough restrictions
that put thousands of people into isolation, but analysts say the isolated state
is unlikely to have avoided the contagion.
Porous border
China and North Korea share a 1,400-kilometer (880-mile) border that is
especially porous during the winter, when frozen rivers allow people to cross
more easily in and out of the two countries. Dozens of North Koreans cross the
border to smuggle black market goods every day and analysts have said they may
have carried the virus into the isolated country before the frontier was closed.
"There's no question the coronavirus in the North is imported from China," said
Go Myong-hyun, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, noting the
heavy border traffic and China's high total number of cases. But Pyongyang was
singling out the case from the South to highlight defectors as "dangerous
beings," Go said, as the North ramps up pressure against Seoul. South Korea is
currently recording around 40 to 60 new infections a day, with most of them
imported cases. Earlier this month Kim warned against any "hasty" relaxation of
anti-coronavirus measures, indicating the North would keep its borders closed
for the foreseeable future. More than 30,000 North Korean civilians have fled
their homeland since the peninsula was divided at the end of the 1950-53 Korean
War. Most flee across the porous frontier with China and it is very rare for
them to cross the heavily guarded inter-Korean border. But the number of
escapees has dwindled in recent months -- with just 12 new arrivals from April
to June compared to 320 in the same period last year -- due to border closures
over the virus, Seoul officials said.
Tunisia Interior Minister Named New PM
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 26/2020
Tunisia's interior minister Hichem Mechichi has been appointed to form the next
government, the president's office said, amid political tensions among major
parties in the North African country. The 46-year-old lawyer succeeds Elyes
Fakhfakh, who resigned as prime minister earlier this month -- but Mechichi was
not one of the names proposed by the ruling political parties to President Kais
Saied. In a statement following Saturday's announcement, Mechichi said he would
"work to form a government that meets the expectations of all Tunisians".
Tunisia has been praised as a rare success story for democratic transition after
the Arab Spring regional uprisings sparked by its 2011 revolution. But its
leaders have struggled to meet the expectations of the Tunisian people and the
already fragile economy has been battered by the closure of the country's
borders because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The disease has claimed around 50 lives and infected more than 1,400 people in
Tunisia. As well as being interior minister in the outgoing government, Mechichi
has been a counselor to President Saied, handling legal matters. He has
previously been chief of staff at the transport ministry and also served in the
social affairs ministry. He now has a month to form a government. At that point
his choice will be put to a parliamentary vote of confidence and will need an
absolute majority to succeed. Failing that, parliament will be dissolved and new
elections organised within three months.
Political divisions In the last elections held in October the
Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party came top but fell far short of a majority and
eventually agreed to join a coalition government. Fakhfakh's resignation on July
15 after less than five months in office threatened fresh political deadlock in
the nation as it struggles with the economic fallout of the pandemic.And it came
as a political row deepened with Ennahdha over allegations against Fakhfakh of
conflicts of interest. Relations between the 47-year-old outgoing premier and
Ennahdha have been strained since the October legislative elections. Fakhfakh
stepped down the same day the party filed a no-confidence motion against him.
Ennahdha had initially nominated an independent for premier but he failed to win
the support of parliament, leading the president to name former finance minister
Fakhfakh for the post. Faced with the prospect of fresh elections, Ennahdha
eventually agreed to join the coalition government.
Libya Govt. Disavows Visit by French Uprising Champion
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 26/2020
Libya's U.N.-recognized government has disavowed a visit by French philosopher
Bernard-Henri Levy, a champion of the 2011 ouster of longtime dictator Moammar
Gadhafi whose standing has plummeted since the uprising. Across Libya, the
euphoria of the NATO-backed rebellion has long since faded as fighting has raged
on between rival governments and feuding militias. In the government-held west
of the country, France is widely resented for the political support it has given
military strongman Khalifa Haftar whose forces dominate a rival administration
in the east. Levy flew into Libya's government-held third city Misrata in a
private jet on Saturday, airport sources said. He told pro-government television
channel Libya Al-Ahrar that he had traveled to the country as a journalist to
write a piece for the Wall Street Journal. Levy said he planned to visit the
town of Tarhuna, where government forces uncovered a mass grave they say
contains the bodies of civilians executed by Haftar loyalists. Armed groups
loyal to the government said they had prevented Levy from entering Tarhuna on
Saturday. But in tweets accompanying photographs of himself flanked by masked
gunmen in military uniforms, the French celebrity philosopher said he had
visited the "killing field" in Tarhuna where 47 people, including children, had
"suffered martyrdom from pro-Haftar proxies.""Just after my reportage on the
killing fields. These are the true Libyan police who protect free press. So
different from the thugs who tried to block my convoy on my way back to Misrata,"
he wrote in a caption. He said a full account of what happened would be
published soon. A program published by Libyan media showed that Levy planned to
visit the capital Tripoli on Sunday for talks with Interior Minister Fathi
Bashagha. But the office of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj denied "any
connection" to Levy's visit and said it had opened an inquiry to establish how
it had come about and to take "deterrent measures" against its organizers.
Although Levy enjoys celebrity status in France, he is unpopular in the Arab
world because of his staunch support for Israel.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 26-26/2020
Restoring Iraq as the beating heart of Arab commerce
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/July 26, 2020
There is something almost tragi-comic about Iraqi prime ministers’ predilection
for visiting Tehran and Riyadh in immediate succession, whether the intention is
to play one side off against the other or simply to prove to the Americans that
Iraq isn’t trapped in the Tehran camp.
It is hugely important that Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s visit to Riyadh, postponed last
week because King Salman was undergoing medical tests, goes ahead — for
consolidating progress on bilateral ties, developmental support, GCC energy
supplies, and trade. Tehran has been actively sabotaging Iraq’s relations with
its Arab neighbors: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s sudden appearance in
Baghdad, and a raft of new measures during Kadhimi’s subsequent Tehran visit
giving Iran monopolies on energy provision and trade, were clearly calculated to
sour the atmosphere ahead of the prime minister’s arrival in Riyadh.
There is no equivalence in Tehran and Riyadh’s relations with Baghdad: Iraq is
dominated by Iran — economically, theologically, politically, and paramilitarily.
As a US-affiliated former intelligence chief, Kadhimi was not Tehran’s first
choice for prime minister. Tehran’s Iraqi paramilitary affiliates denounce him
as an enemy. Nevertheless, the ayatollahs continue scheming to straitjacket
Baghdad inside their economic bloc of “resistance” states.
Iraq’s diplomatic and trade relations with GCC states relaunched from a low
base. As recently as 2014 there were few meaningful diplomatic interactions, and
Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki was baselessly accusing the Gulf states of
supporting terrorism and insurgency while simultaneously proclaiming
Iran-sponsored paramilitaries as the solution to all Iraq’s problems. The Saudi
trade minister’s trip to Baghdad last year provided for $1 billion in
development loans, $500 million to boost exports and four new consulates to
cultivate trade ties. Relations with the UAE and Kuwait have been bearing fruit,
and work has been progressing (slowly!) for GCC states to provide electricity to
Iraq.
Iraqi agriculturalists and traders accuse Iran of “economic sabotage” by
flooding the market with below-cost goods. Imports worth up to $12 billion,
about 25 percent of Iraq’s total, originate in Iran, and up to 40 percent of
energy consumed in Iraq comes from Iran. Via the Kurdistan border route alone,
about 800 lorries a day swarm into Iraq, saturating the market with Iran-made
products; machinery, construction materials, vehicles, plastics, and home
appliances, all with a reputation for inferior quality. With few states willing
to trade with sanctions-wracked Iran, Iraq is its captive market.
Iraq once produced three-quarters of the world’s dates. In a humiliating
turnaround for this potent symbol of national identity and pride, 80 percent of
dates consumed in Iraq today are cheap, inferior Iranian imports, depressing
prices so severely that Iraqi date cultivation is hardly cost effective. To
protect the local economy, importing dates is banned; yet politicians and
customs officials find it profitable to turn a blind eye to this and a thousand
other nefarious Iranian trading scams.
In Basra markets, up to 90 percent of vegetables and basic goods are imported
from Iran, sometimes at a third of the price of Iraqi produce. Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah is calling for Lebanese vegetables to be exported to Iraq —
although given the precarious nature of the Syria overland route, “Sayyid”
Hassan’s potatoes may be rotten and insect-infested before they even arrive. How
would this help Iraq? Or Lebanon, where much of the population is going hungry?
Throughout this spring, Tehran was persistently pressuring Iraq to reopen its
1,400km border, even as coronavirus ravaged Iran’s provinces. A short-lived
initiative to boost Iraqi agricultural self-sufficiency by May has been thrown
into reverse, with the value of imported Iranian goods last month rebounding to
$800 million. When entrepreneurs in the Shiite southeast sought to set up
businesses, such as local dairies, corrupt politicians in the pay of Iran
blocked them, arguing that this would have a negative effect on cross-border
trade. No wonder Iraqi protesters in these regions chanted: “Iraqi officials
sold the country to Iran, and local farming is now over.”
With financial institutions and companies in Iraq and Lebanon already facing US
sanctions due to close links with Iranian entities, it is increasingly difficult
to sustain commercial ties with the outside world
Tens of thousands of acres of prime agricultural land were burned in 2019,
mostly in disputed central regions under paramilitary control. Video footage of
paramilitaries setting light to fields fueled rumors that this was a calculated
Iranian plot to destroy Iraqi agriculture, although Daesh was also blamed.
“There is economic warfare between countries so as to force Iraq to import,”
declared Duraid Hikmat, agricultural director for Nineveh, one of the worst-hit
provinces.
Intensive efforts to establish rail and road routes through Iraq to Damascus are
a central plank in consolidating Iran’s closed “resistance” economic system,
which has nothing to offer except perpetual poverty to those trapped inside.
With financial institutions and companies in Iraq and Lebanon already facing US
sanctions due to close links with Iranian entities, it is increasingly difficult
to sustain commercial ties with the outside world.
Kadhimi’s foreign travel coincides with his struggles to rein in the criminal
activities of Iran-backed Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi paramilitaries, who through the
duration of his visit to Tehran kept up sustained attacks against the prime
minister through their media outlets, while almost ignoring his trip altogether.
Kadhimi will have no success in combating these overmighty mafioso militias
unless he also curbs Iran’s economic and political dominance. Just like
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hashd are deeply involved in smuggling Iranian goods
across the border (including narcotics, arms and laundered currency), while
exploiting paramilitary muscle to monopolize key economic sectors.
For much of the 20th century, under successive leaderships, Iran and Iraq were
mortal enemies. Trade was actively suppressed, with Iraq’s economy deeply
enmeshed with its Arab neighborhood. Indeed, during the 1970s Iraq was one of
the most successful Arab states in transforming its oil wealth into a
diversified economy, a world-standard educational system, and economic
opportunities for all — before it all went disastrously wrong under Saddam
Hussein’s dictatorship and the war against Ayatollah Khomeini.
While Baghdad and Tehran should remain on amicable terms, Iraq must urgently
rebalance its economy, abolishing this insalubrious state of dependence that
impoverishes workers, farmers and traders, and results in stagnating markets and
severance from Iraq’s Arab neighborhood.
Transformed trade relationships with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and other Arab
states would open Iraq up to the wider world. Kadhimi’s visit to Riyadh must not
merely be about headline-grabbing investment pledges, but a comprehensive
roadmap for reintegrating Iraq into its rightful position at the beating heart
of the Arab world.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Iran regime sees Biden as its way out of crisis
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 26, 2020
Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic has dealt with the US
administrations of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton,
George W. Bush, Barack Obama and now Donald Trump. The pressure the regime has
been facing during the Trump administration is unprecedented.
Iran’s oil exports have been significantly cut; the people’s dissatisfaction
with the regime has culminated in two nationwide protest movements in the last
three years; inflation and unemployment are at record highs; the coronavirus
disease pandemic has further worsened the overall political and economic
situation; and divisions within the theocratic establishment are wider than ever
before.
But one of the skills that the regime has mastered over the four decades of its
rule is to exercise patience. From the perspective of the Iranian leaders, they
have survived the Trump administration and are now eagerly awaiting November’s
US presidential election and a potential Joe Biden victory.
Since the mullahs believe that the Trump administration has been seeking regime
change despite the White House’s denials, they feel that Trump has failed in his
policy on Iran. Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif last month argued that
Trump has concluded that his “maximum pressure” policy has failed. Zarif said:
“I don’t think Trump believes anymore in talk that the Islamic Republic is about
to collapse. But he keeps repeating his mistakes. It seems that they (US
officials) know they have committed errors but don’t know how to correct them.”
Iran’s state-owned newspapers and politicians are very optimistic about Biden
defeating Trump. Last week, a Mardom Salari newspaper headline read, “Biden
getting more popular at time of Trump’s decline.” Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall
Street Journal poll this month showed that the former vice president holds an
11-point lead over Trump, 51 percent compared to 40.
Amid all the bad news that the Iranian leaders have received and among all the
difficulties the regime has encountered since Trump was elected, the theocratic
establishment looks at Biden as a way out of its crippling crisis. To begin
with, a Biden administration would most likely return to the Iran nuclear deal,
which Trump decisively pulled out of in 2018. Returning to the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action would effectively include endorsing all of the
reported secret agreements that were struck by the Obama administration, which
Biden served as vice president.
A Biden administration would most likely return to the Iran nuclear deal, which
Trump decisively pulled out of in 2018
This move would likely ensure that all sanctions would again be lifted and
billions of dollars would flow into Iran’s treasury. Once again, the regime
would be capable of deploying the extra revenue to fan the embers of unrest in
the Middle East. This would include funneling some of the money into the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps to expand the regime’s influence and military
stranglehold across the Middle East, including in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and
Yemen.
This would be good news for Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is also under
significant economic pressure. The nuclear deal previously saved Assad when he
was on the verge of losing his grip on power. He received a boost as Iran ramped
up its “investment” in Syria by spending between $6 and $35 billion a year to
keep its staunchest regional ally in power.
In addition, Iran would also be able to strengthen its Shiite armies and
proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the
conglomerate of about 40 Iraqi Shiite militias under the banner of the Popular
Mobilization Forces. It is not hard to track Iran’s aggression and quest for
regional dominance in the Middle East.
Without Iran’s cash, many militias and terror groups would not be able to
survive. As Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has admitted: “We are open
about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its income, its expenses, everything it
eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As long as Iran has money, we will have money.” He added: “Just as we receive
the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we are receiving our money. No law
will prevent us from receiving it.”
Through the prism of the ruling clerics, a Biden presidency, a return to the
nuclear deal and a renewed flow of money would enable them to more powerfully
and forcefully suppress domestic opposition and pay their radical loyalists to
advance the regime’s revolutionary ideals and ensure the hold on power of
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
It should, therefore, not come as a surprise that the Iranian regime sees it as
good news and a way out of its crisis if Biden is elected president.
Unfortunately, what should come as a surprise is that the Democratic Party does
not seem to be considering the damage the nuclear deal and the Obama
administration’s appeasement of the Iranian regime inflicted on Iranian
citizens, the region and even people as far away as Latin America.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Iran-China deal’s repercussions for the region
Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab News/July 26, 2020
It seems that China has found a new partner in the form of Iran — so much so
that the two countries have drafted an extremely important economic and security
partnership agreement that may pave the way for billions of dollars of Chinese
investments to flow into the energy sector and other industries within Iran.
This would undermine the efforts of US President Donald Trump to impose
isolation on the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military
ambitions.
The proposed partnership, which was detailed in an 18-page agreement obtained by
The New York Times, would expand the Chinese presence in the sectors of banking,
telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In return,
China will receive regular supplies, according to an Iranian official and
another person involved in the oil industry, which will significantly reduce the
value of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.
The document also refers to the deepening of military cooperation between the
two countries, which may allow Beijing to build a stronghold in a region that
has been a strategic concern of the US for decades. The document calls for
holding joint military exercises and cooperation. According to a report on the
Oil Price website, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this month agreed to the
addition of another element that would change the balance of geopolitical forces
in the Middle East: Full military and air cooperation between Iran and China,
with Russia also playing a major role.
There is a meeting scheduled for the second week of August between Iranian
government, military and intelligence officials and their Chinese and Russian
counterparts to discuss the remaining details of the agreement. Provided
everything goes as planned, Chinese and Russian bombers, fighters and transport
lines will have unrestricted access to Iranian airbases as of Nov. 9.
The partnership was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his
visit to Iran in 2016 and it won approval by President Hassan Rouhani’s Cabinet
last month, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif.
Washington and the region will view the expansion of aid, military training and
intelligence sharing with Iran with concern. Indeed, US warships regularly clash
with Iranian forces inside the crowded Gulf waters and defy China’s claims of
eligibility for control of much of the disputed South China Sea. The National
Security Strategy released by the Pentagon in 2017 declared China to be a
“strategic competitor.”
The deal may allow Beijing to build a stronghold in a region that has been a
strategic concern of the US for decades
The Iran-China agreement includes proposals to allow Chinese companies to build
the infrastructure for the fifth generation (5G) telecommunications networks in
Iran and provide the Chinese BeiDou system for satellite navigation, along with
helping the Iranian authorities impose more control over what is going on in
cyberspace, similar to the “Great Firewall of China.”
This agreement had remained up in the air for a long time without anyone knowing
its precise details, but the leaked draft copy testifies to the depth of the
relationship between the two countries, as well as the deal’s ability to create
a new reality in the region. It will greatly complicate matters and provide Iran
with weapons. Tehran represents a great danger and further developing its
economy is a challenge for the international community. The US has imposed
sanctions in a bid to force Iran to change its behavior and stop its support for
terrorist militias in the region, while the international community has shown it
is keen to rein in Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which
threaten security and stability. However, China and Russia have many interests
in Iran and neither is concerned with any American role in the region.
In order to understand the economic importance of this agreement, we only need
to look at one very important detail: China imports 10 million barrels of oil
per day to meet its industrial needs and Iran could potentially meet most its
demand. The economic clause in the Sino-Iranian agreement means that the steady
supply of oil at a fixed price means a lot to China, but it contradicts the
policy of the US, which is seeking to achieve Iran’s collapse in its domestic
arena under a suffocating economic embargo.
This is in addition to the fact that China has seemingly set itself a goal of
challenging every American presence in the world. It started with a military
port in Djibouti, East Africa, on the pretext of it being a logistical base for
the forces fighting Somali pirates, while the Iran deal will give it a presence
at the entrance to the Arabian Gulf, which means that the US will no longer be
the dominant force in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
The question that must be answered is whether it is permissible for a country to
achieve its interests by engaging with a state that supports terrorism, such as
Iran. In the event that the worst happens, it might lead to a miserable new
world order, not just a new Middle East based on spreading chaos and ruin.
*Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri is a political analyst and international relations
scholar. Twitter: @DrHamsheri
Containment of Turkey a far better strategy than confrontation
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/July 26/2020
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas last week warned Turkey over its drilling in
the Eastern Mediterranean. The latest Turkish project is taking place in areas
Ankara considers part of its exclusive economic zone, according to the maritime
demarcation it agreed with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) last
year. Tensions between Turkey and many other nations have reached new highs
recently. Egypt, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia this month joined Greece and Cyprus in
presenting a note verbale to the UN secretary-general outlining why the maritime
delimitation jurisdiction agreed between Libya and Turkey should not be
registered. The question is what went wrong? In 2016, Arab militaries were
conducting maneuvers at the Incirlik airbase in Turkey. What happened? Did
Turkey’s behavior change, did Arab states’ behavior change, or did circumstances
change? A little of each of these factors happened, but they fed off each other
and resentment piled up, leading to a deadlock in relations.
Turkey is perceived by certain Arab countries as an interventionist and
expansionist state. The memory of Ottoman domination is haunting many Arab
leaders. Arab states have many points of contention with Turkey. Beyond its
intervention in Syria, Turkey has also reached Libya and is expanding in the
Eastern Mediterranean. On top of that, the support Turkey has offered to Qatar
following the boycott by the Anti-Terror Quartet has strained relations between
them and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Nevertheless, the most important
perceived danger of all is its support to the Muslim Brotherhood and the threat
it poses to existing Arab governments. Istanbul under Erdogan has become a
center for all dissidents from the Arab world.
Having said that, dealing with Turkey as the ultimate enemy and adopting a
zero-sum perspective will only result in more regional instability. A zero-sum
perspective will drive toward full mobilization to counter Turkey, which will
have a backlash on the Turkish side and result in proxy conflicts that will
start in Libya but could extend to other areas and lead to more bloodshed in the
region. In these difficult circumstances, deconfliction is essential and
diplomacy is key.
Dealing with Turkey as the ultimate enemy and adopting a zero-sum perspective
will only result in more regional instability
Preventing a possible military conflict is necessary. Instead of looking at
Turkey as the enemy, it is better to look at it as a frenemy, i.e., a foe on
certain fronts and a partner on others. Instead of sinking into the argument of
who is right and who is wrong, it would be better to start negotiations that are
conducive to a mutually agreed solution. Hence, it is important to
compartmentalize relations with Turkey and focus on the issues on which, as
Arabs, we have a common interest with Ankara. Turkey should be approached in a
strategic manner, with regional stability as the driver of relations. Starting
with areas of common interests, in which cooperation is possible, will thaw the
freeze in relations and facilitate negotiations on other issues. Containment is
a far better strategy than confrontation.
On Syria, the Arab states and Turkey have a common interest in countering Bashar
Assad. The Syrian president is Iran’s paw in the Levant. All the Iranian support
for non-state actors goes through Damascus. Assad’s defeat would greatly reduce
Iran’s influence in the region, which is the prime threat to Arab Gulf
countries. The Idlib front is heating up and Turkey and its local partners are
the main force that can push back against Assad’s advances.
The other front that is a major point of contention between Arab states and
Turkey, in which a clash should be avoided, is Libya. Turkey has found in the
GNA an ally in the Eastern Mediterranean. An agreement between Greece, Cyprus
and Israel to demarcate their exclusive economic zones left Turkey with a
smaller area to explore for resources than it wishes. The three nations have
also agreed to build a pipeline to transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean
to Europe via Greece, bypassing Turkey. Ankara’s agreement with Libya would
outflank this agreement, as no energy company will conduct exploration
activities in contested waters. A maritime demarcation line with Libya will
change the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. Additionally, Turkey’s
intervention in Libya is supposed to reward it with many reconstruction deals
once stability is restored.
There is a standoff on Sirte. A potential Egyptian incursion in response to any
Turkish-backed GNA assault would be costly and probably risky for Cairo, which
also has the problem of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The dam will create
a huge water problem that Egypt needs to address. Nevertheless, Egypt has
concrete security concerns regarding Libya. It fears that mercenaries brought to
the fight can infiltrate its borders. On the other hand, if Turkey chooses to
proceed east, it needs reinforcements that will be costly and not necessarily
sustainable.
The US has delegated the Libya problem to Europe, which it accuses of not doing
enough. Europe could use its leverage on Greece to reach a settlement with
Turkey on the Eastern Mediterranean in return for concessions on Libya. In this
regard, Egypt can play an important role due to its coastline in the region. In
addition to that, the Turkish and Arab media should reduce the rhetoric. A
scaling down of the media war could be used as a confidence-building measure
between Arab states and Turkey. Later, other issues can be addressed one by one
as their relations improve and as trust builds up.
It is better to contain the animosity with Turkey and treat it rather than let
it grow, otherwise, in a few years, Arab states might have relations with Turkey
similar to those they currently have with Iran. Arab states need more regional
friends, not more foes. The points of contention should be addressed and
solutions should be reached in order to decrease tensions. Using might to deal
with the problems will not solve them, nor will a stalemate make them go away.
In the end, stability is in everyone’s interest.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an
affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Iraqi PM focused on ending country’s conflicts
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/July 26, 2020
As Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi neared two months in office in late
June, his counterterrorism forces raided the offices of Kata’ib Hezbollah, a
radical member of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). Soon after, the country
was rocked by two high-profile assassinations — of political commentator Hisham
Al-Hashemi and Gen. Ali Hamid Al-Khazraji, who was leading the fight against
extremist elements in Tarmiyah, 50 kilometers north of Baghdad, which was once a
Daesh recruitment center and sanctuary for fighters and weapons.
Last week, Al-Kadhimi visited Tehran in his first foreign tour as prime
minister. These separate developments encapsulate the diverse challenges facing
him as he attempts to bring peace and economic revival to his beleaguered
nation.
The raid on Kata’ib Hezbollah on June 26 and arrest of some of its fighters
affirmed the intentions of the prime minister to end the autonomy of the PMU’s
militias and bring them within the fold of the government-controlled security
services. The militants have stoutly resisted this, while continuing with their
independent fight against US targets through rocket fire and instigating harsh
retaliatory action.
While the government defended the arrests by saying it had credible information
that attacks on high-profile and sensitive targets were planned, the militants
claimed that resistance was their “fundamental legitimate right.” The situation
was defused with the release of the militants, but a clear signal has been given
that disbanding the PMU militias and merging them into the state forces will be
a priority for the prime minister. Here he enjoys considerable popular and
parliamentary support.
The assassinations of Al-Hashemi and Al-Khazraji within 10 days of each other
reveal how fragile the country’s security situation is. In Al-Hashemi’s case,
Shiite militias are being blamed since he had written against the Iran-backed
militants; but the involvement of police is also feared, with Al-Kadhimi
dismissing the local federal police head after the murder. In the general’s
case, it is suspected that his own security guards could have shared inside
information with the killers.
These murders confirm that Iraq remains deeply divided and that its security
personnel are of dubious value. Al-Kadhimi has begun a clean-up job by bringing
in a new national security adviser and fresh heads of the various security
services, but obviously the rot is so deep and pervasive that it will take some
time before the situation improves.
Al-Kadhimi will certainly have concerns that his country could become the
theater for a new regional competition
Political polarization in the country has, of course, been fanned by external
players, which use Iraq as the stage to pursue their interests, regardless of
the damage this does to the fabric of the country.
Turkey’s latest intrusion into Iraqi Kurdistan began on June 15. Its forces have
now established themselves up to 30 kilometers into the region and set up
several bases and checkpoints. While the ostensible reason for the intervention
is to control fighters from the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK),
there are fears that Turkey might stay in the region permanently to break the
contiguity of Kurdish territories across the borders that it shares with Iraq
and Syria.
Given that the region’s Arab states are hostile to Turkey’s political and
military outreach across the Middle East, Egypt appears to be preparing to
challenge Turkey in Iraq by significantly expanding its political, economic and
military ties with the Al-Kadhimi government on the basis of Arab affinity.
Besides providing medical assistance to Iraq, it has offered to be Baghdad’s
partner in the fight against terrorism and to train Iraqi soldiers in Egypt.
As Arab states prepare to confront Turkey, Al-Kadhimi will certainly have
concerns that his country could become the theater for a new regional
competition. On the positive side, Iraq’s ties with its Arab neighbors have
deepened — the latest achievement being the agreement to link Iraq’s electricity
grids to that of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Iraq, of course, remains the
battleground for US-Iran rivalry. During his visit to Tehran, Al-Kadhimi
addressed this issue forcefully. He told the Iranian leaders that he would never
allow any aggression against Iran from Iraqi soil, but also insisted that Iran
approach Iraq on the basis of “non-interference” in its internal affairs. This
was a reference to Al-Kadhimi’s anxiety to tame the PMU. Responding to Al-Kadhimi’s
contention that Iraq’s foreign policy was based on “balance and avoiding any
alignment,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei assured him that Tehran would
not interfere in US-Iraq ties and that it wanted an Iraq that was “strong,
stable, with full territorial integrity and internal harmony.”Having cleared the
air, the two countries have laid the foundations for substantial long-term ties
— pledging to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion, link the railway systems
of the two countries, and dredge the Shatt Al-Arab so that larger ships can
navigate the waterway. Al-Kadhimi’s focus is on bringing the conflicts in Iraq —
both domestic and regional — to an end and making the country a “bridge to peace
and cooperation” by mediating differences between the nations of the Middle
East. As he consolidates his rule over his divided and imperiled country, this
will be Al-Kadhimi’s greatest challenge in the coming months.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi
Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies
at the Symbiosis International University in Pune.
Coronavirus: Gulf universities can learn from Oxford’s
COVID-19 vaccine project
Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/July 26/2020
The University of Oxford is leading the world in the quest for what would be a
hugely valuable COVID-19 vaccine, primarily because it promotes and maintains a
diverse range of expertise that can respond to unpredictable events such as a
war or a global pandemic. Universities in the Gulf should learn from this model,
particularly when it comes to area studies – a field that allows countries to
draw upon a range of experts to respond to foreign policy events effectively.
Oxford University’s leading role in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine is a
model for Gulf universities’ research departments more broadly. Oxford’s Jenner
Institute was already working on coronavirus issues last year, allowing the
center to amass significant vaccine-related knowledge before the pandemic broke
out. Once the pandemic erupted, the Jenner Institute was able to transform its
ongoing research into a head start in the race for the priceless vaccine.
This is not because the Jenner Institute predicted the coronavirus pandemic, and
there is no guarantee it has either the luck or the ability to predict future
pandemics. Instead, top universities understand the impossibility of precisely
anticipating society’s problems, and consequently maintain a high level of
knowledge in a diverse range of issues. Then, when society suddenly needs a
solution to a narrow problem, an experienced research team with most of the
requisite knowledge is ready for action.
This principle is not limited to health research, but applies directly to the
genesis of foreign policy. In OECD countries such as the UK and the US,
universities have a selection of area studies departments, such as Asian
studies, Latin American studies, and Middle Eastern studies.
The researchers working in these departments are told that their job is
primarily to study these regions and to accumulate expertise in them. They are
given a lot of freedom to choose their focus, whether historical, economical,
sociological and so on. Most departments are not forced to limit their research
to topics that are obviously relevant to modern-day issues.
The foreign ministries of the countries that house these universities have
strong relationships with these departments, as they are invaluable sources of
trustworthy external expertise. When an international crisis erupts, such as the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the in-house experts at the foreign
ministry are too small in number to have comprehensive background knowledge; the
foreign ministry will therefore reach out to the experts housed in the relevant
area studies departments in the local universities, and tap the deep knowledge
that they have amassed by being full-time researchers in those regions.
For example in the US, the Senate and the Department of Defense will regularly
invite top university scholars affiliated to area studies departments to provide
them with their opinion on the latest unfolding crisis, and this knowledge
allows the US to forge a much more sophisticated foreign policy than would be
the case had authorities relied exclusively on the overworked experts working in
the State Department.
The analogy to Oxford University’s vaccine efforts is clear: Harvard University
did not know that the Arab spring was about to erupt in 2011, just as the Jenner
Institute did not anticipate a coronavirus pandemic in 2019. However, the two
institutions maintained a diverse and active research portfolio in Middle
Eastern studies and in coronavirus vaccine research, respectively, and this
allowed them to provide critical support to policymakers when an unexpected
crisis did arrive.
The Gulf countries have several respectable universities. However, these
institutions generally lack area studies departments, meaning that the foreign
ministries do not have a pool of dedicated experts whom they can tap as and when
necessary.
Local think tanks partially fill this intellectual lacuna, but a think tank
scholar’s knowledge is not as deep as that of a university one, because
peer-reviewed research (which is more difficult to produce than unrefereed
policy briefs) accounts for a much larger share of a university scholar’s
research activity. Moreover, their effectiveness as a source of policy-relevant
knowledge is undermined by the fact that many of the think tank scholars are
foreigners, creating potential conflict of interest problems when relying on
their expertise to influence foreign policy.
As an illustration, understanding China today is more important than ever, and
ideally, there would be a corps of dozens of Gulf scholars fluent in Mandarin
ready to advise their governments, based on years of reading Chinese newspapers
and studying China’s economy, political system, and society. Countries such as
France and Germany have such teams ready for action, and so the Gulf countries
should consider making similar investments, by allocating greater material
support to area studies departments in their local universities.
With the international order undergoing a period of flux, and historically
stable international relationships wobbling, the need for good quality homegrown
area studies research is very high. Just as Oxford University was ready to
respond to the pandemic, Gulf universities need to be ready to respond to the
next international political crisis. It is precisely these sentiments that
Abraham Lincoln had in mind when he said: “Give me six hours to chop down a tree
and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”
Shifting sands in the House of Saud with a king's declining
health
Simon Henderson/The Hill/July 26/2020
Is the ailing Saudi King Salman about to die and be replaced by his
controversial son, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, aka MbS? The monarch is
hospitalized in Riyadh, suffering from an inflamed gall bladder. That’s not
normally life-threatening but the energy world is abuzz with rumor; after all,
the kingdom is the world’s largest petroleum exporter and any disruption in
Saudi oil flows is a big deal.
Why should there be any change in Saudi oil exports? Because a transition in
power may be challenged from within the Saudi royal family, the House of Saud.
Since Salman, now 84, came to the throne in 2015, he has devolved power steadily
to MbS, his favorite son. The 34-year-old prince is minister of defense and,
since 2017, has been heir apparent. (The previous crown prince, his elder cousin
Muhammad bin Nayef — known as MbN — was “persuaded” to step down in favor of MbS.)
MbS is an iconoclast and proud of it. Perhaps many of the royal family actually
may be scared of him, some having experienced detention in the Riyadh Ritz
Carlton three years ago until they agreed to hand over hundreds of millions of
dollars in assets, allegedly obtained by corruption. The tough style of MbS, who
has a $550 million ocean-going yacht and a $300 million French chateau in his
own portfolio, has been burnished since then by his imprisonment of anyone whom
he deems a critic. (Some writers would have written “imprisonment or worse,”
although MbS denies actually ordering the killing of exiled critic and
Washington Post op-ed writer Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul nearly two years ago.)
Curiously, despite his self-evident power, MbS seems almost paranoid of
opposition to him. Earlier this year, elder-cousin MbN was taken from palace
arrest to a prison even though, at best, the former crown prince — who has
suffered at least one heart attack — is a mere figurehead for other potentially
rebellious Saudi princes. Much media attention has focused on MbN’s former chief
lieutenant in the Saudi security services, Saad al-Jabri, who has political
asylum in Canada. Saturday’s Wall Street Journal had a long article based on
Saudi official sources, describing al-Jabri’s alleged previous corruption; a few
weeks earlier, Washington Post writer David Ignatius used his column to tell al-Jabri’s
side of the story, emphasizing his crucial role in working with the U.S. to
defeat al-Qaeda. On Monday, Reuters reported a Saudi Twitter storm criticizing
al-Jabri.
King Salman may not be on his deathbed, but MbS is renowned for not wanting to
waste an opportunity. Apart from his regal title, King Salman is also “Custodian
of the Two Holy Mosques” of Islam, in Mecca and Medina, as well as prime
minister. MbS is already the de facto leader of the kingdom — the Saudi foreign
ministry refers to the two men as “The Leadership” — so perhaps the prime
minister’s title now will become his.
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More willful blindness by the media on spying by Obama administration
Saudi succession rules are theoretically clear-cut but can be adapted. Could MbS
become regent during his father’s indisposition? Yes, but it would require the
father to declare this. Could the king abdicate? Again, theoretically, yes,
although it would be a new precedent. MbS likely does not want to find himself
asking the senior princes who make up the so-called Allegiance Council for their
approval, since some would not give it. All this makes for potentially great
drama, even for this coronavirus era. By comparison, the succession in
neighboring Kuwait, where the 90-year-old ruling emir also has been
hospitalized, is boring. In energy terms and regional geopolitics, Saudi Arabia
is the place to watch.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is
the author of "A Fifty-Year Reign? MbS and the Future of Saudi Arabia." Follow
him on Twitter @shendersongulf.