English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 25/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-31: “A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here!”
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 24-25/2020
Question: "Why are Christians always arguing?"/GotQuestions.org/July 24/2020
National Center for Geophysics records 3.9 magnitude quake in Baalbek area
Lebanon Records 147 New Virus Cases and 3 Deaths
Coronavirus Panel Recommends Closure of Some Sectors
Hassan Says Lebanon 'Under Test' to Combat Virus Surge
President Aoun receives call from UN's Guterres who confirmed United Nations' solidarity with Lebanon
Rifi sees eyetoeye with Rahi's postulates
Future Movement Congress postponed due to coronavirus pandemic
Diab meets Najjar, “Ou3a” Gathering delegation, ICRC’s Martin
Diab chairs financial coordination meeting
Sami Gemayel visits Rahi: Neutrality is the sole means to protect Lebanon
French FM calls for ‘concrete measures’ by Lebanon, vows support to army
Le Drian Announces Educational Aid, Warns of ‘Collapse’
EU Ambassador Meets Aoun, Urges 'Credible Reforms'
Sfeir Rejects Haircut: Political Class Seeks to Make Banks Shoulder Responsibility
Hizbullah Slams U.S. Interception of Iranian Jet Carrying Lebanese Citizens
Al-Mustaqbal Postpones Its Congress Due to Coronavirus
Mufti Qabalan: Resistant Action Liberated Lebanon, Not Neutrality
France Pledges $17 Million to Lebanon's Struggling Schools
Lebanese Official, Hadi Hashem, head of the Lebanese foreign minister’s office Finds he Has COVID-19 at Lunch with France's Le Drian
Lebanese Hizbullah-Affiliated Journalist Calls For Popular And Armed Resistance To U.S. Forces In Iraq And Syria In Response To Economic Strangulation/MEMRI/July 24, 2020
Hezbollah’s historical repression of Lebanese neutrality may be coming to an end/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Wednesday 22 July 2020
Palestinians: Victims of Arab Racism/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./July 24, 2020
UNIFIL’s Yearly Mandate Renewal: Maintain Ends, Change Ways and Means/Assaf Orion/The Washington Institute/July 24/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 24-25/2020
Greek Orthodox Church 'Mourns' Hagia Sophia Mosque Reconversion
U.S. Confirms Intercept of Beirut-Bound Iranian Plane over Syria
U.S. Military Chief Visits Israel amid Tensions with Iran
Iran Protests to U.N. after U.S. Jets Approach Flight over Syria
WHO Chief Scientist Sees No Herd Immunity Yet
Istanbul's Hagia Sophia Opens as a Mosque for Muslim Prayers
Greek PM Calls Turkey a 'Troublemaker'
UN Rights Office Calls on US to Rein in Police at Protests
Christopher Columbus Statue Taken Down at Chicago Park
Israeli Police Use Water Cannons on Protesters, Arrest 55
Rockets Hit Military Base South of Baghdad, No Casualties
German Curator Kidnapped in Iraq Freed in Security Operation
Emergency Arab Meeting Scheduled to Tackle UNRWA Crisis
Taliban Say Ready for Talks With Kabul After Eid Holiday
New Wave of Migrants Overwhelms Italian Island

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 24-25/2020

Iran’s New Make-believe Diplomacy/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/July,24/2020
Emerging Markets Are Going to Pay the Price Again/Mihir Sharma//Bloomberg/July, 24/2020
The Rising Chinese Imperialism and the New Cold War/Charles Elias Chartouni/July, 24/2020
Indoctrinated in Hate: Palestinian Schools Are Typical Muslim Schools/Raymond Ibrahim/July, 24/2020
We’re All in Big Trouble Without Renewed Jobless Benefits/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July, 24/2020
You Don’t Need Profits Anymore/Matt Levine/Bloomberg/July, 24/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 24-25/2020
Question: "Why are Christians always arguing?"
GotQuestions.org/July 24/2020
Answer: Scripture is clear that God hates discord and fighting among His children (2 Corinthians 12:20; Galatians 5:15; James 3:14, 4:1-3). Philippians 2:3-4 says, “Do nothing from rivalry or conceit, but in humility count others more significant than yourselves. Let each of you look not only to his own interests, but also to the interests of others.” If every believer lived by that rule, arguing would virtually disappear. Any parent frowns upon bickering between siblings, and God is a Father who also frowns on it. However, there are three key words in this question that deserve attention: Christians, always, and arguing.
First, the term Christians has been badly misused in recent years. Anyone who celebrates Christmas or who attends church occasionally can claim to be a “Christian.” However, according to Jesus, “Not everyone who calls me ‘Lord, Lord’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only those who do the will of my Father in heaven” (Matthew 7:21). Much of the fighting and ugliness we hear about is between people who might go by the name of “Christian” but who are not true followers of Christ. Selfish ambition, pride, and greed can rule within a church full of unbelievers just as in the rest of the world. There are whole denominations that are so far from the truth detailed in the Bible that they can hardly be classified as Christian (see Revelation 3:17-18). So, we should keep in mind that much of the arguing is between unsaved people posing as believers.
Second, the term always is a bit misleading. If we weed out those who are not truly born again and look only at the relationships among the real disciples of Christ, there is much to celebrate. Thousands of charitable organizations have been created by Christians working together in harmony. They are not “always” arguing. Most Spirit-filled churches have a large core of solid Christians who unselfishly use their time, talents, and money to serve their church and community without bickering. The media are quick to showcase anything negative within the church but are strangely silent about the thousands of praiseworthy deeds done every day by Christians working together in love.
The church of Jesus Christ is a family. Those who have placed their faith in Christ are allowing His Spirit to transform them and have been adopted into the family of God (Ephesians 1:5; Romans 8:15). And, as with any family, there are disagreements. There are personality clashes, differing opinions, and ideas that won’t work together. When each is convinced that his or her way is the only right way, the clash can be permanent. However, differences of opinion do not always produce negative results. Even the apostles had disagreements. In Acts 15:36-41, we read of Paul and Barnabas having such a sharp contention that they split up, chose new ministry partners, and went separate ways. The result was that even more churches were planted and God’s message was spread to more people. Paul and Barnabas eventually reconciled and continued together to spread the gospel.
The third term, arguing, also needs to be addressed. A discussion between sharply contrasting viewpoints is not necessarily an argument. The deity of Christ, salvation through faith, and the need for repentance are not negotiable. But some secondary issues in God’s Word leave room for differences of opinion. Some common disagreements pertain to end-times prophecy, gifts of the Spirit, baptism, and church organization. While there is only one accurate interpretation of everything in the Bible, a human being’s ability to discern that one interpretation can be faulty. Two godly men can see the same issue differently. Most church denominations arose out of these contrasting interpretations. But those denominations are not necessarily embroiled in an “argument” with each other.
Paul addresses this in Romans 14. He warns believers to welcome those new to the faith who may have convictions that differ from those of the seasoned saint. Verse 5 says, “One person esteems one day as better than another, while another esteems all days alike. Each one should be fully convinced in his own mind.” In other words, there are some issues that are not weighty matters, and we need to practice grace in accepting the sincerely held convictions of other believers. Doing so consistently would eliminate much of the arguing that taints the reputation of the body of Christ. We must study God’s Word and express what we believe it teaches (2 Timothy 2:15), but we must do so with humility and love, giving grace to other believers who see things differently (1 Corinthians 13:1-2).
Ultimately, we all answer to our Father for how we treat each other (Matthew 12:36). Every child of God should remember that our Father places far more importance on our showing love than He does on our being “right” on every issue (1 John 4:20-21).

National Center for Geophysics records 3.9 magnitude quake in Baalbek area
NNA/July 24/2020
The National Center for Geophysics of the National Council for Scientific Research said that it recorded at 2:20 AM, local time, this Friday a 3.9 Richter scale magnitude quake that hit the region of Baalbek district and was felt by some citizens.
The center reminded of the access to information on seismic activity in Lebanon through the mobile app LebQuake.

Lebanon Records 147 New Virus Cases and 3 Deaths
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Lebanon recorded 147 new COVID-19 cases and three more deaths over the past 24 hours, the Health Ministry said on Friday evening. According to the Ministry’s daily statement, 119 of the new cases were recorded among residents and 28 among expats who arrived in Lebanon in recent days.
The new cases raise the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 3,407. The three fatalities meanwhile take the death toll to 46. The tally of 3,407 cases includes 1,666 recoveries. Twenty-one of the new local cases were recorded in Baabda district, 18 in Beirut, 12 in each of Northern Metn and Zahle district, eight in Sidon district, seven in Keserwan, three in each of Chouf, Aley district and Nabatieh district, two in each of Jbeil district, Koura district, Zgharta’s Mizyara, Baalbek district, Hermel, Tyre district, Bint Jbeil district and Marjeyoun district, and one in Tripoli.

Coronavirus Panel Recommends Closure of Some Sectors
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Lebanon’s government-linked anti-coronavirus committee on Friday recommended a host of measures in the face of a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in the country. Urging reinforced PCR and quarantine measures related to Lebanese expats arriving from abroad, the panel recommended a one-week closure as of Monday of pubs, nightclubs, internal pools, concert venues, theaters, cinemas, amusement parks, indoor and outdoor children playgrounds, gyms, popular souks and social event venues except for wedding venues. Wedding venues will however be obliged to respect social distancing rules and precautionary measures while the capacity should not exceed 50 persons for indoor venues and 150 persons for outdoor venues, the panel said. The relevant authorities will meanwhile be asked to be strict in ensuring that restaurants, cafes and gambling centers do not exceed 50% of their customer capacity.
Lebanon on Thursday confirmed 156 more COVID-19 cases, continuing a recent trend of high daily tallies. Health Minister Hamad Hasan warned Thursday that the coronavirus pandemic has reached a “dangerous juncture” in Lebanon. The country has gradually lifted lockdown measures and opened Beirut airport to commercial flights at the start of July, after a closure of more than three months. Over the past two weeks, the daily infection rate has risen, with dozens of new cases announced each day. At the height of summer, some beaches and bars are again thronging with people. Hasan on Monday warned of a possible return to lockdown over "people's behavior" and non-compliance with social distancing.

Hassan Says Lebanon 'Under Test' to Combat Virus Surge
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hassan said Lebanon is “going through the test” and its capabilities are challenged to confront the outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus, as he urged unity and joint efforts to “win the fight” against the new surge in virus cases, the National News Agency reported on Friday.
Hassan visited the Baabda Government University Hospital as part of boosting readiness of government hospitals to confront the pandemic and develop their medical services. “Today, we are under test, and one hand cannot clap. Let us all cooperate. Cases of coronavirus have become widespread in all Lebanese regions. We cannot let the numbers rise, uncontrolled. We need to catch up. We must remain in control,” said Hassan. “Prior to July 1, when we opened the country, we were in full control of the situation, and were among the 15 countries in the world beating coronavirus. Today, the country is open and people are thriving to live and shake off the psychological, social and economic pressures that they experienced. But awareness remains key; we must be more careful now," Hassan said. Lebanon saw a recent trend of high daily tallies of coronavirus, reaching to 156 on Thursday.
The new cases raised the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 3,260 -- among them 43 deaths and 1,619 recoveries. Twenty-four of the new cases were recorded among expats who arrived in the country in recent days.

President Aoun receives call from UN's Guterres who confirmed United Nations' solidarity with Lebanon
NNA/July 24/2020
The President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received a phone call this evening from UN the Secretary-General.Mr. Antonio Guterres, during which he inquired about the situation in Lebanon. Gueterres affirmed UN solidarity with Lebanon during the situation it is passing through, wishing all good for the Lebanese and noting the support of the international organization to all that would help Lebanon’s recovery to overcoming this delicate period. President Aoun thanked Guterres for his wishes, stressing on the work to overcome the current ordeal, for the interest of Lebanon and the Lebanese, and to enable them restore the role that Lebanon has been long played among its surroundings and the world. -- Presidency media office

Rifi sees eyetoeye with Rahi's postulates
NNA/July 24/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, met on Friday with former Minister, Ashraf Rifi, with whom he discussed the most recent political and economic developments across Lebanon. "We reaffirm the authority of this edifice, its comprehensive national role, and its decisive stance, especially whenever Lebanon is exposed to an existential danger," Rifi said on emerging. The former Minister voiced full support for the Maronite patriarch's previously stated postulates, which call for neutrality, lifting the siege off the country's legitimacy, and the implementation of international resolutions. "I affirm support to the postulates, which are the basis for Lebanon's restoration of its sovereignty, just as they are the basis for the restoration of its role in Arab and international societies," Rifi added.

Future Movement Congress postponed due to coronavirus pandemic
NNA/July 24/2020
The Supervisory board of the Third Future Movement Congress, headed by Dr. Ahmed Fatfat, held an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Hariri this morning at the Center House, and informed him of the recommendation of the Future Movement doctors to postpone the Congress that was supposed to be held tomorrow in Beirut, to a later date, due to the rapid increase in the number of coronavirus cases in Lebanon. After a series of contacts with the relevant health authorities, which confirmed the recommendation of the Future Movement doctors, it was submitted to the political bureau which approved it, in accordance with Article 34 of the rules of procedure. Therefore, and in order to preserve the health of those invited to the Congress, their families and their community in general, the Supervisory board announces the postponement of the Congress until a date to be determined later.
The board decided to keep its meetings open to study the legal and health data on the basis of which the earliest possible date for the Congress will be determined, including the possibility of holding it virtually.--Hariri Press Office

Diab meets Najjar, “Ou3a” Gathering delegation, ICRC’s Martin
NNA/July 24/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, received in the afternoon at the Grand Serail, the Minister of Public Works and Transportation Michel Najjarand a delegation from “Ou3a” gathering, which included Youssef Al-Chaabine, MajeedRamadan, Faysal Sfeir, Khaled Adnan, Moustafa Diab, and Pierre Baaklini.
Najjar Minister Najjar spoke after the meeting, saying: “We visited H.E. Prime Minister Hassan Diab, accompanied by “Ou3a” gathering representatives who are part of the civil movement and have a special interest inmaritime properties and railways-related issues. These young people are a very educated group, well versed in all relevant files. We discussed all citizen-related files, especially that they represent the civil society; thus, we must keep in touch and dialogue with them. We deliberated on several national issues especially thatLebanon is on the brink of a major catastrophethat is way greater than the current economic downturn. If we do not stand together and joinhands - government, people, ruling power, and politicians - there is no hope that we can restore our credibility among the international community and secure badly needed assistance. Today’s meeting is a very important step on the road to reconnecting bridges and building trust between the government and the people, for the government is from and for the people; this government was born from the October 17 movement that represents the Lebanese people. Today’s encounter is a symbol of reunification and reconnection. A dialogue took place with H.E. PM Diab who promised that the communication channel would remain open.”
Sfeir
Speaking on behalf of the gathering, Sfeir said: "We are facing a difficult economic situation; the State is threatened with collapse; we have to take a bold decision in order to face majordifficulties. Against this backdrop, we have made a very bold decision, which is to meetwith the Prime Minister to state clearly that we are pooling all our capabilities in order to preserve Lebanon and not let anyone emerge from this crisis, broken or starving. Solutions exist and the crisis can be overcome. We will continue to follow up on all files so that poor or middle class citizens do not pay the price."
Red Cross
Prime Minister Hassan Diab has also met with the head of the International Committee of the Lebanese Red Cross, Mr. Christophe Martin, Deputy Chief of Mission, Basma Tabaga, and the responsible for the file of missing persons in the International Red Cross, Mrs. Meike Groen.-- PM Press Office

Diab chairs financial coordination meeting
NNA/July 24/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, chaired a financial coordination meeting attended by Minister of Environment and Administrative Development Demianos Kattar, Central Bank's vice governors Wassim Mansouri, BachirYakzan, Salim Chahine and Alexander Mouradian, Head of the Banking Control Commission Maya Dabbagh, Advisor to the President of Republic, Charbel Cordahi, PM Advisors, Khodor Taleb and George Chalhoub, Finance Minister’s Advisor, Tarek Salman, vice-president of the Association of Banks, NadimQassar, ABL Secretary, Walid Raphael and ABL member, Roger Dagher.
The meeting took stock at ongoing negotiations banks, Central Bank of Lebanon, and the government.-- PM Press Office

Sami Gemayel visits Rahi: Neutrality is the sole means to protect Lebanon
NNA/July 24/2020
Lebanese Kataeb Party Chief, MP Sami Gemayel, heading a party delegation, paid a visit on Friday afternoon to Maronite Patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi. MP Gemayel voiced full support for the Maronite patriarch's recent postulates, stressing that neutrality is the sole means to protect Lebanon from external interferences. Gemayel underlined that we cannot reach neutrality unless the state is sovereign over its territories, indicating that the Christians and the Muslims are in need of stability and veering away from narrow calculations and foreign affiliations.
 

French FM calls for ‘concrete measures’ by Lebanon, vows support to army
The Arab Weekly/July 24/2020
“It is essential that the Lebanese state asserts its authority and control over all of its territory,” said Le Drian.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian scolded Lebanon’s leadership Thursday for failing to take the measures he said are necessary to save the country from collapse. Lebanon is in the midst of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, marked by a steep decline in the value of the currency and runaway inflation that have plunged nearly half of the population into poverty.
Le Drian, on the first such visit of a top foreign politician in months, made no secret of his exasperation with a leadership he described as “passive.”
The top diplomat said only concrete reforms would enable France, a major ally, to help Lebanon. “Concrete actions have been expected for too long,” Le Drian said in a statement to the media after meeting his counterpart Nassif Hitti.
With his Lebanese counterpart on his side, Le Drian vowed support to Lebanon’s military.”We will maintain our support to the Lebanese army, the cornerstone of this state, and to the security forces which, together, play a crucial role in ensuring the security and stability of the country,” he said in an implicit disavowal of Hezbollah’s attempts at acting as a state-within-the-state.
“It is essential that the Lebanese state asserts its authority and control over all of its territory,” he added in a thinly-veiled allusion to the Iran-backed Shia party’s ambitions. The French minister expressed empathy for Lebanon’s protesters. “The Lebanese have strongly expressed their legitimate aspirations through popular protests since October. They took to the streets to express their thirst for change, for transparency, to fight for corruption and for better governance,” Le Drian said. “Their call has not been heard so far.
The free-falling economy has sparked mass protests since October against a political class accused of incompetence, corruption and being kept on a short leash by the Iran-backed Hezbollah party. Tens of thousands have lost their jobs or part of their income. After the country defaulted on its debt for the first time in March, the government pledged reforms and two months ago started talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
But the negotiations have hit a wall, with two top members of the government’s own team resigning, allegedly in frustration at the administration’s lack of commitment to reform. “There is no alternative to an IMF programme to allow Lebanon to exit the crisis,” Le Drian warned.
Lebanon’s government says it needs more than $20 billion in external funding, which includes $11 billion pledged by donors at a Paris conference in 2018 that was never delivered over lack of reforms.
Analysts say a deal with the IMF is key to unlocking any further aid.
“France is ready to fully mobilise at Lebanon’s side and to mobilise all its partners, but for that serious and credible recovery measures have to be implemented,” the French minister said.
He singled out as an example the loss-making electricity sector, where reforms have been dragging for years.
“I can say clearly that what has been done until now in this field is not encouraging,” he said. After meetings with President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Le Drian said the time is critical.
“What I want to tell those responsible in Lebanon today is, ‘help yourselves and France and its partners will help you’,” he said. “It is the key message of my visit.”
Le Drian’s patience was clearly wearing thin as he dished out more criticism during an afternoon visit to Amel, a charity in southern Beirut that helps some of Lebanon’s most vulnerable. “I was reading in Lebanese newspapers that Lebanon was waiting for Le Drian. No, it’s France that’s waiting for Lebanon,” he said. “What is striking to us is how passive the authorities of this country are,” Le Drian said during a conversation with the head of Amel about soaring poverty levels.
Le Drian’s uncompromising tone echoed an appeal he made in the French senate earlier this month and which was widely reported in Lebanon: “Help us help you, dammit.”“I said dammit the other day in the Senate so I wouldn’t have to use a swear word. It was an affectionate word but it came with a dose of anger,” he said. Dozens of businesses are closing down permanently every day, thousands of people are losing their jobs or suffering massive pay cuts and suicides of citizens submerged in debt have shocked the nation. Lebanon is burdened by sovereign debt equivalent to 170% of its GDP. Most traffic lights have stopped working in Beirut, electricity is becoming scarce and a growing number of Lebanese are looking for ways to leave the country. The slow-motion collapse of a state that will celebrate its centenary in just over a month has sparked warnings that sectarian violence could return.
Le Drian said that the rest of Lebanon’s international partners were on the same page, as was the protest movement that emerged last year to demand reform and an end to corruption.

Le Drian Announces Educational Aid, Warns of ‘Collapse’
Naharnet/July 24/2020
The visiting French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Friday announced 15 million euros in aid to Lebanon’s economic-stricken educational sector, reiterating calls on Lebanese officials to enforce reforms and “fulfill their responsibilities” before Lebanon “slides into the abyss.”
“Lebanon is in deep trouble and everyone knows what should be done. France is ready to help, but first Lebanese officials must fulfill their responsibilities,” said Le Drian. The top diplomat, who met senior Lebanese officials on Thursday had scolded the leadership for failing to take the needed measures to save the country from collapse. Le Drian, on the first such visit of a top foreign politician in months, made no secret of his exasperation with a leadership he described as "passive".On Rahi’s calls to neutralize Lebanon, he said in remarks to reporters: “During my meeting with Patriarch (Beshara) el-Rahi yesterday, I assured France’s support for positive neutrality which reinstates Lebanon’s sovereignty and distances it from regional conflicts.”In remarks he made earlier Friday during an educational meeting with Catholic schools, Le Drian also warned of the magnitude of the crisis. “Lebanon is in a deep crisis. I will again reiterate what I told Lebanese officials earlier that the country is on the verge of the abyss, but there is a possibility to rise again,” he said. “France will provide 15 million euros in aid to the educational sector in Lebanon,” he said, assuring that France will never allow the collapse of the educational sector in Lebanon, “mainly French-language schools.”“We will not abandon the Lebanese youth during this difficult crisis,” he added.

EU Ambassador Meets Aoun, Urges 'Credible Reforms'
Naharnet/July 24/2020
European Union Ambassador to Lebanon Ralph Tarraf held talks Friday in Baabda with President Michel Aoun. In a tweet after the meeting, Tarraf said “addressing the socio-economic crisis in Lebanon is urgent.”“Reaching an agreement with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and rebuilding trust in the State through credible reforms remain the top priorities,” he added.Talks with the IMF have been bogged down in internal political disputes and struggles over who is to blame for banking losses. Lebanon's economic and financial crisis is rooted in years of mismanagement and corruption. It has deepened since the government defaulted on its sovereign debt in March, the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictions that it brought. Lebanon witnessed nationwide protests last October after the government, as part of efforts to introduce austerity measures, levied new taxes on messaging service WhatsApp. Protesters accused the government of mismanagement and years of corruption and eventually forced then-premier, Saad Hariri, to resign.A new government, backed by the powerful Hizbullah and its allies was formed in January and has since been bogged down by domestic rivalries on ways to proceed with reforms and the IMF talks.

Sfeir Rejects Haircut: Political Class Seeks to Make Banks Shoulder Responsibility
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir rejected any haircut on bank deposits, and explained in direct talks with the American Task Force for Lebanon the proposed suggestions to steer Lebanon out of its economic crisis, media reports said on Friday. In an online video conference, Sfeir said the ABL had rejected any default on Lebanon’s foreign debts that threatened the savings of depositors.He said the current political class seeks to make banks shoulder the responsibility. Media reports quoted Sfeir as saying that the state's failure to pay Eurbonds in March was not necessary, and stressed that the Lebanese banks have proven strength and immunity in the face of wars and successive political crises over the past years.Sfeir also revealed that total bank deposits declined from $ 173 billion in September 2019 to $ 150 billion today, with a decline that is not considered significant, especially since a large part of the money was used to cover debts in foreign currencies.

Hizbullah Slams U.S. Interception of Iranian Jet Carrying Lebanese Citizens
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Hizbullah on Friday strongly condemned the interception of an Iranian passenger plane over Syria by U.S. fighter jets, labeling it as “intimidation and terrorism.”
“This is a very dangerous act of terror that could have had incalculable ramifications across the entire region,” Hizbullah said in a statement. Noting that Lebanese citizens were among the passengers of the plane, the Iran-backed group called for “a decisive international stance against the United States” and described it as “an occupation force in Syria’s territories and skies.”Hizbullah also expressed solidarity with Iran and Syria in the face of the “insolent American violations.” During a sharp drop in altitude, four Lebanese passengers on the Iranian plane were injured, including one reported to be in critical condition after suffering a concussion and a broken spine, according to Health Minister Hamad Hasan. Hasan voiced his remarks during a visit to the injured passengers at the Hizbullah-affiliated Great Prophet Hospital south of Beirut.

Al-Mustaqbal Postpones Its Congress Due to Coronavirus
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement announced Friday that it has decided to postpone its third congress, previously scheduled for Saturday, due to the spike in coronavirus cases that the country has witnessed in recent days. The decision was taken at the recommendation of the Movement’s physicians and following an emergency meeting with Mustaqbal leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, a Mustaqbal statement said. The statement added that the congress might be held virtually should the pandemic situation in Lebanon continue to be alarming. Lebanon on Thursday confirmed 156 more COVID-19 cases, continuing a recent trend of high daily tallies. Health Minister Hamad Hasan warned Thursday that the coronavirus pandemic has reached a “dangerous juncture” in Lebanon. The country has gradually lifted lockdown measures and opened Beirut airport to commercial flights at the start of July, after a closure of more than three months. Over the past two weeks, the daily infection rate has risen, with dozens of new cases announced each day. At the height of summer, some beaches and bars are again thronging with people. Hasan on Monday warned of a possible return to lockdown over "people's behavior" and non-compliance with social distancing.

Mufti Qabalan: Resistant Action Liberated Lebanon, Not Neutrality
Naharnet/July 24/2020
Shiite mufti Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan hit out anew Friday at Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi’s call for Lebanon’s neutrality. “Lebanon’s situation is internationalized and global forces deal with it as a raging frontier in the conflict of axes, using all their suspicious financial, monetary, economic and political capabilities to achieve their interests,” Qabalan said in his Friday prayer sermon. “All of this obliges us to be very wary of the West and its choices,” Qabalan added.“Anyone who wants to know the West’s stance on the causes of Arabs and Lebanon should carefully evaluate what’s going on in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Sinai, in addition to the GCC rivalries,” the mufti went on to say. He added that he strongly condemns the call for neutrality, because “neutrality between a scheme that is besieging Lebanon and a project that wants to rescue Lebanon is unacceptable.”“The issue of Lebanon being a neutral support country and not a confrontation country according to Arabs’ historic resolutions did not prevent Tel Aviv from occupying Beirut and it did not push Arabs to expel Israel from Lebanon. Most of them instead stood idly by as Beirut was being destroyed and the residents of the South and others were being displaced,” Qabalan said. “What liberated Lebanon was the resistant action as a choice siding with Lebanon’s rights and sovereignty, not the neutrality that crucified Lebanon at the U.N. Security Council throughout Israel’s occupation of Lebanon,” he added. He said that Lebanon’s salvation lies in “siding with Lebanon’s rights and interests, even if they were in China, in the face of lethal neutrality.”“We must take action quickly because the country is dying, and we in turn welcome and Western or Eastern support for Lebanon without any political calculations, despite our reservations over the disappointing experience with the West,” Qabalan went on to say.

France Pledges $17 Million to Lebanon's Struggling Schools
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
France's visiting foreign minister pledged Friday EUR15 million - about $17 million - in aid to Lebanon's schools, struggling under the weight of the country's economic crisis.
Jean-Yves Le Drian said France will not let the "Lebanese youth alone" face the crisis that has hit the education sector hard. Schools have let some teachers and administrators go and many face the risk of closure. Many parents, struggling to pay private school fees, have enrolled their children in already overcrowded public schools. The French assistance will go to a network of over 50 French and Francophone schools. The economic crisis has impacted almost all facets of life in Lebanon, long considered a middle-income state. Since last year, unemployment has risen and poverty deepened, as foreign currency dried up and the national currency lost more than 80% of its value against the dollar. Le Drian, who arrived here late Wednesday, urged Lebanese officials to go through with an audit of the country's central bank, reform a bloated and highly indebted electricity sector and maintain an independent judiciary. France is the former colonial power in Lebanon and has previously organized conferences that pledged assistance to Lebanon but demanded reforms to the public sector and governance. Le Drian said France has already donated EUR50 million ($58 million), primarily to the health care sector to deal with the coronavirus challenge. "Lebanon is on the verge of the abyss. But there are ways on the table to fix this," he said during a visit Friday to a school in Mechref district, south of the capital, Beirut. On Thursday, Le Drian said the only way out of the financial and economic crisis is for Lebanon to secure a program with the International Monetary Fund. France and its allies would then be able to secure assistance to Lebanon, he said. Talks with the IMF have been bogged down in internal political disputes and struggles over who is to blame for banking losses. Lebanon is facing a new surge in coronavirus cases, recently recording three-digit numbers of cases a day - a spike from before it eased restrictions in July. So far, Lebanon has reported more than 3,200 cases, including 43 deaths from the virus. During lunch with Le Drian on Thursday, Hadi Al-Hashem, a Foreign Ministry official, got the news that he had tested positive for the virus. Al-Hashem told Lebanon's Al-Jadeed TV that he has no symptoms. But his test result prompted Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti and other officials to get tested, and they were negative, the report said. A French diplomat at the embassy in Beirut said the French delegation took all precautions and respected social distancing during meetings. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity as he wasn't authorized to talk to reporters.

Lebanese Official, Hadi Hashem, head of the Lebanese foreign minister’s office Finds he Has COVID-19 at Lunch with France's Le Drian
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
A senior Lebanese official said on Friday he had taken bad news of testing positive for COVID-19 during a lunch with visiting French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
“I received a telephone call from the hospital saying the test was positive, so naturally I left the lunch and informed all those present,” Hadi Hashem, head of the Lebanese foreign minister’s office, told the local OTV broadcaster. A spokesman for Le Drian, whose lunch with Lebanese officials on Thursday came during a trip urging reforms to the crisis-hit economy, had no immediate comment on the matter.Speaking by video, Hashem told OTV he had taken a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test ahead of a planned trip to Denmark, but was now self-isolating at home until Monday before another test. “The result was unexpected but the most important thing is that the virus level is low and not contagious,” he said. After Hashem’s diagnosis, Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti and his political affairs director also underwent PCR tests, but their results came back negative, a health ministry source told Reuters. Lebanon has recorded 3,258 infections and 43 deaths from the novel coronavirus since February.

Lebanese Hizbullah-Affiliated Journalist Calls For Popular And Armed Resistance To U.S. Forces In Iraq And Syria In Response To Economic Strangulation
MEMRI/July 24, 2020
In an article on the Lebanese website elnashra.com, Hassan Hardan, a Lebanese journalist affiliated with Hizbullah, calls for popular and armed resistance to American forces and those who collaborate with them in Iraq and in Syria, in response to the economic war which he claims the U.S. is waging against Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Calls to strike a blow at the American presence in Lebanon specifically were also heard a few weeks ago, following U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea's criticism of Hizbullah.[1]
In the article, titled "Respond to the American Attack with a Counter-Attack,"[2] Hardan writes:
"It is clear that the U.S. has managed to create crises in Syria, in Iraq, and in Lebanon by means of an economic war which has exacerbated the economic and social controversies and crises in an unprecedented manner. It is obvious that the administration of President Donald Trump has decided to wage 'a clean war,' in which the U.S. won't pay with money from its Treasury or with its soldiers' blood…
"The question is how we can cope with this policy which kills people with the weapon of economic strangulation in order to compel them to surrender to the imperialist American government.
"The answer is not to remain in a state of passive defense but to respond immediately… by means of a counter-attack that will turn the tables on the U.S. and create an economic upheaval that will break the siege that spills our blood, and neutralize the card for economic war which is held by the U.S...
"This counter-attack should simultaneously integrate economic and military measures.
"On the economic front – we must generate fundamental change in the economic possibilities and open a channel of economic cooperation and integration among all elements of the axis of resistance, as well as between them and China and Russia…
"On the military front – we must undertake popular and armed resistance against the American forces and against those who collaborate with them, to lead the U.S. to pay a price for the continuing occupation in Syria and in Iraq, and this should be done by causing material damage and human casualties among its forces, which will lead to internal problems for the American administration in advance of the approaching presidential election. And in this way we will force the American administration to face the necessity to withdraw from Syria and from Iraq for the continuation [of the American presence there] will [mean that the U.S. will have to] contend with a war of attrition… The alternative to withdrawal is involvement in a new war which will oblige them to send tens of thousands of soldiers [to the region] and lead to a further immersion in a war of attrition whose price will be tremendously high…
"The American imperialist should take note that it cannot continue with the economic war it is waging to wear us down and kill us by means of economic strangulation, without its own blood being shed and without [paying] an economic price which will continue to rise…"
[1] Hizbullah Supporters On Twitter: Threats To Attack The U.S. Embassy In Beirut Following Ambassador Shea's Critical Comments About Hizbullah, July 1, 2020.
[2] Elnashra.com, July 18, 2020.

Hezbollah’s historical repression of Lebanese neutrality may be coming to an end
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Wednesday 22 July 2020
The patriarch of Lebanon’s Maronite Church Beshara Al-Rai joined a growing roster of Lebanese leaders who think that the main culprit behind the country’s free-falling economy is Hezbollah and its endless wars.
In a visit to President Michel Aoun, Al-Rai called for restoring regional neutrality, a policy the country used in the past, during which Lebanon saw its “golden years” between 1949 and 1969. Al-Rai also said that national defense should be the job of the Lebanese Army alone.
In a follow-up statement, Al-Rai said that Lebanon used to be “the hospital of the Arabs, the hotel of the Arabs, the tourism of the Arabs,” and that it was Lebanon’s neutrality that allowed it to play such roles.
“But when we joined alliances and [militias] and military engagements, we became completely isolated from the Arabs and the West, and we became alone, like a ship in a stormy sea.” The patriarch concluded that “neutrality is the source of national unity and stability, which leads to [economic] growth and prosperity.”
Hezbollah has repressed the debate over its arms and Lebanese neutrality ever since it lost its raison d’être when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000. At first, the pro-Iranian militia tried to continue warring with Israel over a tiny strip of land known as Shebaa Farms whose ownership is claimed by Syria. But the narrative of “liberating the Shebaa Farms” never gained traction.
Realizing that Hezbollah had become an obstacle to economic growth, late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic al-Hariri held rounds of talks with its chief Hassan Nasrallah. Al-Hariri offered Hezbollah a face-saving exit strategy that would have seen the militia transformed into a political group.
When Hezbollah refused, Al-Hariri lobbied Arab and world capitals. The UN passed Security Council resolution 1559, which called for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Months later, Hariri was assassinated, and a UN special tribunal indicted Hezbollah operatives for the killing.
Al-Hariri’s death, however, did not end calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament, but only intensified them. A coalition of pro-Hariri Sunnis, Maronite Christians under Aoun and his rival Samir Geagea, and Druze under Walid Jumblatt, coalesced around Resolution1559, forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to withdraw his forces from Lebanon, 29 years after having entered it.
Hezbollah, for its part, laid low, and pretended to join in the national unity. In reality, the militia lurked around waiting to break its opponent coalition.
Applying carrots and sticks, Hezbollah lured Aoun away and later helped make him president, while assassinations continued to take down national anti-Hezbollah figures. The party tried to renew its war credentials by starting what it called a defensively preemptive war with Israel in 2006, which resulted in so much destruction that, instead of winning regional and national support, Hezbollah almost lost its Shia base.
Again, the coalition for disarming Hezbollah came to the rescue, holding indirect negotiations with Israel through the UN to end the war, and soliciting reconstruction money from friends of Lebanon. Gulf capitals proved especially generous in preventing a Lebanese economic collapse. Lebanon was set to implement Security Council resolution 1701, which Hezbollah had agreed to, a resolution that reaffirmed 1559 and called for UN-mediated talks with Israel and Syria to end border disputes and demarcate the borders.
But like always, Hezbollah reneged on what it had agreed to. Hence, with its majority, the coalition to disarm Hezbollah went for one last gasp: It ordered the army to dismantle the militia’s telecom network, perhaps as a prelude to disbanding the militia.
Hezbollah responded with brute force, sending its fighters to invade neighborhoods and villages, and killing many.
The terms to end Hezbollah’s mini civil war in 2008 stipulated, yet again, neutrality. Michel Suleiman, who was elected president by consensus, summoned the oligarchs and Hezbollah to agree on neutrality, and encoded the agreement in the Declaration of Baabda 2012. Next, Hezbollah went after Suleiman, slandering him until his term ended.
After Suleiman, Hezbollah was determined to install a loyalist president who would never call for disarmament or neutrality. Aoun obliged. But by controlling all levers of power, the world realized that Lebanon was now in Hezbollah’s pocket. The country thus lost its international friends. It’s economy started its decline. A free-falling economy convinced Al-Rai, who had been on the fence, to join the chorus calling for Hezbollah’s disarmament and Lebanese neutrality. Al-Rai’s position surprised the pro-Iranian militia, whose early reaction included defaming the patriarch.
But the head of the Maronite Church is a heavyweight in Lebanese politics, and his call for neutrality started snowballing.
Hezbollah is on the back foot again, and will probably revert to its usual playbook: Try to divide and conquer its opponents with violence and promises of senior state jobs. Whether the party succeeds in repressing calls for its disarmament, like it did in the past, is anybody’s guess.
The only difference today is that the party will have to play its game unlike anytime before: Against the background of an unfolding Lebanese famine.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is an Iraqi-Lebanese columnist and writer. He is the Washington bureau chief of Kuwaiti daily al-Rai and a former visiting fellow at Chatham House in London. He tweets @hahussain.
 

Palestinians: Victims of Arab Racism
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./July 24, 2020
Lebanon's anti-Palestinian sentiments show that it has no intention of helping the Palestinians who are living there. On the contrary, the statements of Bassil and other Lebanese politicians demonstrate that Lebanon is eager to rid itself of its Palestinian residents, the sooner the better. Like most Arab countries, Lebanon cares nothing about the suffering of the Palestinians. Other than lip service, it is not prepared to make the slightest effort to assist them.
"Palestinians in Lebanon do not enjoy several important rights; for example, they cannot work in as many as 39 professions and cannot own property (real estate)." — United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), unrwa.org. Lebanese law considers Palestinians workers as "foreign workers" and bans them from working in professions such as medicine, law, and engineering, and even as barbers and taxi drivers.
The international community evidently has no problem with Arab racism and discrimination against the Palestinians. Indeed, why should the international community, specifically the UN, care about this -- after all, it is a situation about which Israel cannot be held responsible.
Earlier this year, a prominent Lebanese politician, Samir Geagea, was accused of promoting "racism" and hate" after he called for "isolating" Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon in order to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. From time to time, Lebanese officials and politicians like to take a shot at the Palestinians by reminding them that they are unwelcome in Lebanon, an Arab country that has long been subjecting them to apartheid and discriminatory laws, policies and measures.
The latest Lebanese official to spew "racist" remarks against the 475,075 Palestinians living in 12 refugee camps in Lebanon is Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, a political party whose support base is overwhelmingly from Lebanon's Christian community. Bassil, a former minister of foreign affairs and emigrants, is married to Chantel Aoun, the daughter of Lebanese President Michel Aoun.
Palestinians are now accusing Bassil of waging a "racist and malicious campaign of incitement" against them after he was recently quoted as saying that the presence of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon threatens its security and stability.
They fear that Bassil's statement could pave the way for the expulsion of Palestinians from Lebanon. For several years now, Palestinian refugees, due to dire economic conditions, have been leaving Lebanon in droves and heading for Europe. Bassil and his Lebanese colleagues are undoubtedly happy to see the Palestinians fleeing Lebanon, and would probably like to see more of them leave.
"The principle of neutrality [in regional conflicts] in Lebanon could succeed if the neighboring countries recognized it and applied it by removing the explosive elements [from Lebanon]," Bassil said, adding that one of the "explosive elements" is the Palestinian presence there.
Bassil's anti-Palestinian statements began after he met with Lebanon's senior Christian cleric, Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, who recently criticized the Lebanese Hezbollah Shiite terrorist group for its support for Iran in conflicts with Sunni-led Gulf states. Al-Rai called for the principle of neutrality and to eliminate poverty and hunger in Lebanon. Bassil, who is allied with Lebanon's ruling group, Hezbollah, was apparently unhappy with the Christian leader's criticism of the Iran-backed terrorist group. His anti-Palestinian remarks indicate that he believes the Palestinians, and not Hezbollah, which functions as a state-within-a-state in Lebanon, are Lebanon's real problem.The Palestinian Authority leadership, as part of its policy of maintaining relations with all Arab states, including Lebanon, has refrained from commenting on racist statements made by Lebanese officials and politicians. Now, however, Palestinian officials have decided to break their silence to respond to the "racist campaign of incitement" by Lebanese politicians against Palestinians.
The PLO condemned Bassil's statements as "provocative and abhorrent" and warned that such rhetoric was harmful to brotherly relations between the Palestinians and Lebanese." General Munir al-Makdah, a senior commander of the Palestinian Fatah faction in Lebanon, strongly denounced Bassil's statements and claimed they were part of an attempt to involve Palestinians in Lebanon's internal affairs. "We will not meddle in Lebanon's internal affairs," al-Makdah said. "We will remain committed to Lebanon's security in the same way we care about our Palestinian issue."
Yusef Wahbe, Chairman of the Palestinian Democratic Youth Union in Lebanon, said that Bassil's "racist" statements harm Palestinian-Lebanese relations. Wahbe urged Lebanese politicians to "stop using Palestinians in their conflicts." He also called on Bassil to "reconsider" his position and stop inciting against the Palestinians.
"There is fear that such recurring statements would create hatred between Palestinians and Lebanese," remarked journalist Hanan Issa, a reporter for the independent Arab Al-Ghad television station. "Recently, several anti-Palestinian statements have been made by Lebanese officials."
Lebanese journalist Ahmed Asfahani, explained that racism in Lebanon "is not limited to this person or a number of leaders." The Palestinians in Lebanon, Asfahani said, are already suffering because they are denied access to many jobs. "The political mentality of the Lebanese leaders is directed against Palestinian and Syrian refugees instead of dealing with the deteriorating political and economic situation," he added.
According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), "Palestinians in Lebanon do not enjoy several important rights; for example, they cannot work in as many as 39 professions and cannot own property (real estate)."Lebanese law considers Palestinians workers as "foreign workers" and bans them from working in professions such as medicine, law, and engineering, and even as barbers and taxi drivers. "Lebanon has an elaborate racist political system designed to discriminate against Palestinians," said Zaher Abu Hamdeh, a Palestinian refugee and journalist in Lebanon.
In 2018, Bassil enraged Palestinians by calling on UNRWA to remove from its list every Palestinian who obtains citizenship of any country. Such a move, Bassil said, would "contribute to reducing the financial burdens of UNRWA and the number of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon."
Earlier this year, another prominent Christian Lebanese politician, Samir Geagea, drew severe criticism from Palestinians after he called for "isolating" Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon in order to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Geagea, too, was accused of promoting "racism" and hate" against the Palestinians. In another sign of anti-Palestinian racism, a Lebanese newspaper published in April a cartoon that likened Palestinians to the coronavirus, sparking outrage among many Palestinians and even some Lebanese. The newspaper has refused to apologize or remove the cartoon.
Lebanon's anti-Palestinian sentiments show that it has no intention of helping the Palestinians who are living there. On the contrary, the statements of Bassil and other Lebanese politicians demonstrate that Lebanon is eager to rid itself of its Palestinian residents, the sooner the better. Like most Arab countries, Lebanon cares nothing about the suffering of the Palestinians. Other than lip service, it is not prepared to make the slightest effort to assist them.
The international community evidently has no problem with Arab racism and discrimination against the Palestinians. Indeed, why should the international community, specifically the UN, care about this -- after all, it is a situation about which Israel cannot be held responsible. If and when the Palestinians are ever deported from Lebanon, they can point the finger of blame not only at Lebanese politicians, but also at the international community -- which makes a habit of ignoring Arab racism and oppression against them.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
*© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

UNIFIL’s Yearly Mandate Renewal: Maintain Ends, Change Ways and Means
Assaf Orion/The Washington Institute/July 24/2020
Most parties would be happy maintaining the status quo, but staying course on the current security trends is unsustainable and may lead to escalation unless the Security Council revises its peacekeeping mission and procedures.
Next month marks the fourteenth anniversary of the 2006 Lebanon war and UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and hence the annual debate over renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires August 31. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government and army have continued to erode 1701 and UNIFIL’s effectiveness, but a unique combination of national crises may provide a rare opportunity to reverse some of the negative security trends. As U.S. permanent representative Kelly Craft told the Security Council on May 4, “Hezbollah openly flaunts its weaponry, flagrantly disregards Resolution 1701, [and] dictates to UNIFIL where and when it can patrol...The government of Lebanon is preventing the mission from fulfilling its mandate by denying it access...The time has come to either pursue serious change to empower UNIFIL, or to realign UNIFIL’s staffing and resources with tasks it can actually accomplish.”
LATEST REPORTS, THREATS, AND INCIDENTS
When UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres issued his latest assessment of UNIFIL on June 1, he recommended transforming it into “a more agile and mobile force with improved monitoring capacity,” equipped with high-mobility light tactical and reconnaissance vehicles in order to foster “better situational awareness” and “a lighter footprint.” The report also proposed decreasing troops near the Litani River, reconfiguring second-echelon units, focusing force density near the Blue Line and other strategic locations, and removing a ship from UNIFIL’s six-vessel Maritime Task Force.
The winds of change were not lost on Hezbollah, which continued its anti-access campaign against UNIFIL. Since early May, at least three more incidents have been reported between UN patrols and locals in the southern village of Blida, an infamous hotspot for harassment. When President Michel Aoun met with the UNIFIL chief on May 21, he prescribed coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as a remedy to such incidents. Then, on May 25, media outlets and tweets began pounding UNIFIL for its supposed “aggressive patrolling” and harassment of villagers. The municipalities of Blida, Meis al-Jabal, and Mhaibib declared that they would be suspending all meetings with UNIFIL and barring its patrols from entering their villages unless they coordinate in advance with local authorities and the LAF. For his part, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned the 1701 renewal issue in a May 27 speech, claiming that Israel was pressing the United States to change UNIFIL’s mission so that the force could operate without LAF coordination. He also declared that he could not care less if UNIFIL stays, leaves, or is altered in size, since the force is more in Israel’s interest than Lebanon’s.
Commentators in the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Akhbar repeatedly echoed such sentiments. On May 27, they accused UNIFIL of “working in service of the enemy”; on June 12, they argued that the UN secretary-general was trying to define the force’s role as “spying on the Resistance,” noting that Hezbollah will not accept such changes and will respond “unexpectedly.”
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s government decided to extend UNIFIL’s mandate by another year without amendment on May 29, soon after Prime Minister Hassan Diab insisted on maintaining its current size. The next day, Hezbollah’s al-Manar television quoted Russia’s ambassador as saying that any attempts to change UNIFIL’s mission would fail. And in a June 3 meeting with the UN special coordinator for Lebanon and the British, Chinese, French, Russian, and U.S. ambassadors, President Aoun both commended and conditioned UNIFIL’s mission. According to Lebanon’s constitution, he argued, “Private properties must be respected, accessing them requires prior authorization and escort from the concerned Lebanese authorities.” In other words, he effectively endorsed those who deny UNIFIL access to illicit military sites—for example, the “private property” label has been applied to such locations as a missile launch site and a cross-border attack tunnel entry.
UNSUSTAINABLE “STATUS QUO”
Currently, all stakeholders see common value in continuing UNIFIL’s liaison and de-escalation roles. They also derive various benefits from the force’s current status: European contributors enjoy the political-military influence it confers; Beirut enjoys the revenues and veneer of legitimacy associated with hosting a sizable UN force; Hezbollah leaders enjoy UNIFIL paying for projects in their southern heartland and hiring hundreds of local staff, so long as the force stays out of their business; and so forth. Another year of no change would please many of these actors, Hezbollah most of all.
Yet this status quo is an illusion. To prevent another war—UNIFIL’s original goal—the force needs to effectively discharge its mandate of limiting illicit military operations in the south or at least honestly report on them, but neither of these minimal requirements has been fulfilled. Instead, the Lebanese government has stepped up its efforts to prevent UNIFIL from encountering or exposing Hezbollah activities; the security margins established by Resolution 1701 have further eroded; and Hezbollah has increased its strength and activities in UNIFIL’s area of operations. This state of affairs is more than just a mission core failure—it represents a dangerous slope toward unwarranted escalation, as the UN’s June report correctly notes.
RECOMMENDATIONS
When the Security Council takes up UNIFIL’s renewal next month, it would do well to implement the secretary-general’s latest recommendations and unfulfilled parts of previous resolutions. Improvements should focus on four areas:
Enhance the Security Council’s oversight. Rather than addressing UNIFIL’s status just once a year under frozen parameters, the council should conduct a thorough review of the force’s mandate, size, operations, and access two to three times annually. This can be achieved by holding deeper discussions when the secretary-general issues his periodical reports on UNIFIL or, preferably, by shortening the force’s mandate to just six months, as done with other missions (e.g., UNDOF). In addition, authorities should regularly present concrete indicators of alleged progress toward an illicit-weapons-free zone south of the Litani River, discuss right-sizing the force each renewal period, and thoroughly review its effectiveness at least once a year.
Decrease UNIFIL’s size and budget. The force should be immediately reduced by 10-20 percent, its maritime component decreased by one vessel, and its maximum authorized number cut from 15,000 to 8,000-10,000. UNIFIL should be reshaped according to the secretary-general’s call for a light, mobile, well-protected mission with advanced monitoring and situational awareness capabilities. These reductions would show Beirut that military support is neither infinite nor unconditional, while prodding it to fulfill its commitments to Resolution 1701, reducing the risk to peacekeepers in case of escalation, and curbing the amount of UN funding to Hezbollah’s support base.
Fine-tune UNIFIL operations. Several changes recommended in the secretary-general’s report should be implemented as soon as possible:
Grant UNIFIL full access to the entire Blue Line and increase its presence there, at the expense of activity in deeper areas where mobile reserves should be operating
Grant free access to open areas and roads, including those barred under the “private property” pretext.
Permit UNIFIL to patrol independent of the LAF and without detailed pre-approval each time
Allow UNIFIL to enter and search premises for preventive inspection purposes within twenty-four hours of request, later subject to Security Council review of each case
Require Lebanon to provide a detailed property ownership map and clarify how it will reconcile its commitments to Resolution 1701 with its claims that private properties are constitutionally excluded
Replace Hezbollah’s “Green Without Borders” observation positions with LAF or UNIFIL posts
Remove superfluous UN positions and add more relevant ones in coordination with the parties
Stop illegal immigrants from crossing the Blue Line into Israel
Strengthen UNIFIL’s liaison staff
In addition, Israel may allow UNIFIL to open its long-desired Tel Aviv liaison office as a measure of goodwill, though without implying any UNIFIL authority in Israel.
Enhance transparency and documentation. UNIFIL units should be equipped with blue trackers, body and vehicle cameras, and other situational awareness gear. Facial-recognition capabilities would facilitate identification of those who attack or impede patrols, enabling Lebanese criminal proceedings or international sanctions against them. The Security Council should be immediately notified of any such incidents; moreover, the UNIFIL commander should provide a monthly operational report with detailed maps and graphs showing the exact time and location of patrols and incidents (categorized by foot, vehicle, and air), as well as all areas where access is denied. A military information cell should be established at UN headquarters and given access to UNIFIL’s geographical operational database, so that member states can obtain timely and accurate situation reports on demand. UNIFIL should also provide regular reports on the following: all of its civilian projects by location and budget; any case in which the LAF prevents UNIFIL personnel from crossing into Israel; and all outstanding issues with Lebanon, including long-delayed legal procedures against suspects who have attacked or harassed patrols.
Hezbollah and its allies will no doubt try to resist these changes via threats, intimidation, and Russian/Chinese vetoes at the Security Council. One way to overcome such opposition is to present this “no change” camp with a U.S. “change or veto” ultimatum—that is, change UNIFIL or watch its renewal get vetoed in August. Since all actors want to maintain the force, this type of shock therapy could convince them to allow improvements on some or all of the above issues. Given Lebanon’s ongoing crisis, now is the time for creative negotiations on mutually beneficial policies, including progress on security arrangements, Blue Line marking, water/agricultural issues, and East Mediterranean natural gas prospects.
*Assaf Orion is the Rueven International Fellow with The Washington Institute. Prior to retiring from the Israel Defense Forces in 2016, he held a leadership role in the Planning Directorate that included coordinating with UNIFIL and the LAF.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 24-25/2020

Greek Orthodox Church 'Mourns' Hagia Sophia Mosque Reconversion
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 24/2020
Churches around Greece were in "mourning" Friday as Muslim prayers were to be held at Hagia Sophia in Istanbul for the first time in decades, with protests by religious groups due later. Church bells around the country will peal at midday with their flags at half-mast to protest what the head of the Church of Greece, Archbishop Ieronymos, has called an "unholy act of defiling" the former Byzantine Empire cathedral. "(Today) is a day of mourning for all of... Christianity," Ieronymos said. The archbishop said he would hold a special service at the Athens Metropolis in the evening and chant the Akathist Hymn in honour of the Virgin Mary. According to Greek tradition, the same service was held in Hagia Sophia on the eve of the Byzantine's Empire's fall to the Ottomans in 1453. Hagia Sophia is "a symbol of our faith and a universal monument of culture," Ieronymos said. Religious and nationalist groups will hold protests in Athens and Thessaloniki later Friday. One of the architectural wonders of the world, the UNESCO World Heritage site in Istanbul was the main cathedral of the Byzantine Empire but was converted into a mosque after the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople in 1453. A top Turkish court revoked the sixth-century monument's status as a museum on July 10. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan then ordered the building to reopen for Muslim worship, deeply angering the Christian community and further straining relations with NATO ally Greece. Erdogan went ahead with the plan despite appeals from the United States and Russia and condemnation by France and Pope Francis. Greece's culture ministry has called it "a provocation to the civilised world".Hagia Sophia in 2007 was on a shortlist of global architectural wonders selected by nearly 100 million Internet and telephone voters.

U.S. Confirms Intercept of Beirut-Bound Iranian Plane over Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 24/2020
The US said Thursday it had intercepted an Iranian passenger plane as it flew over Syria, after Iranian state television accused Israel of being behind the encounter. US Central Command, which oversees US operations in the Middle East, said an "F-15 on a routine air mission... conducted a standard visual inspection of a Mahan Air passenger airliner at a safe distance of approximately 1,000 meters from the airliner." "Once the F-15 pilot identified the aircraft as a Mahan Air passenger plane, the F-15 safely opened distance from the aircraft," Centcom said. It added: "The professional intercept was conducted in accordance with international standards." The US statement came after IRIB television channel aired amateur footage of passengers on board screaming as the Mahan Air jetliner appeared to change course suddenly. Another video apparently shot on a phone appeared to show at least two fighter jets flying beside the plane. "While the (Iranian) plane was in the sky over Syria, the Zionist regime fighter jet approached the Mahan Airlines plane," IRIB's website reported."After this dangerous action by the Israeli fighter, the pilot of the commercial plane quickly reduced the altitude of the flight to avoid colliding with the Israeli fighter, injuring several passengers on board."The IRIB report called the incident "provocative and dangerous." Syrian television and the official SANA news agency, quoting civil aviation sources, said that "planes believed to belong to the US-led coalition intercepted a civilian Iranian airplane in Syrian airspace in the Tanaf region, which forced the captain to undertake a sharp drop that led to light injuries among passengers."The plane, which had been en route from Tehran, continued on to Beirut as scheduled after the incident, the sources added.Israel has launched hundreds of strikes in Syria since the start of the country's civil war in 2011. It has targeted Syrian government troops, allegedly allied Iranian forces and fighters from Lebanon's Hizbullah, claiming its goal is to end Tehran's military presence in Syria. It rarely confirms details of its operations in Syria. The nine-year-old conflict in Syria has killed more than 380,000 people and displaced more than half of the country's pre-war population.

U.S. Military Chief Visits Israel amid Tensions with Iran
SourceAssociated Press/Naharnet/July 24/2020
The top U.S. general made an unannounced visit to Israel on Friday to discuss "regional security challenges" at a time of heightened tensions with Iran and its allies across the Middle East.Army Gen. Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chairman, met with senior Israeli military and intelligence leaders at an air base in southern Israel and held a video conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The visit came days after an air raid on the Syrian capital, Damascus, suspected to have been carried out by Israel, killed five foreign fighters, including a member of the Iran-backed Hizbullah.
The Lebanese group has vowed to retaliate for the killing of its fighters in Syria, and in recent days Israel has sent infantry reinforcements to its northern border with Lebanon. Earlier Friday, the Israeli military said an explosion on the Syrian side of the frontier damaged a building and a vehicle in the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967 and later annexed. The military declined to provide further details. Recent weeks have also seen a series of mysterious explosions in Iran, including a blast at what analysts say was a nuclear centrifuge production facility. Milley's visit also came hours after a U.S. fighter jet passed near an Iranian passenger plane as it flew over Syria. Israel has long viewed Iran as its main regional threat because of its nuclear program -- which Tehran insists is for purely peaceful purposes -- as well as Iran's military presence in neighboring Syria and its support for armed groups like Hizbullah.
Israel has carried out scores of airstrikes in recent years targeting Iran's military presence in Syria, where Tehran is a close ally of President Bashar Assad in the civil war. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that in his talks with Milley, he emphasized "the need to continue the pressure on Iran and its proxies."
The Israeli military "is prepared and ready for any scenario and any threat, and I do not suggest our enemies to test us. We have no interest in escalation, but we will do all that is necessary to protect Israeli citizens," Gantz said.

Iran Protests to U.N. after U.S. Jets Approach Flight over Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 24/2020
Iran protested Friday to the United Nations of a "flagrant violation" of international law after nearby U.S. fighter jets sparked panic on an Iranian passenger plane over war-torn Syria. The incident on Thursday was the latest between arch-foes Tehran and Washington since US President Donald Trump walked out in 2018 of a nuclear accord with Iran and renewed punishing sanctions. Iran's state television broadcast footage filmed on a mobile phone of screaming passengers as the pilot of a Mahan Air plane on a flight from Tehran to Beirut took emergency action. A passenger with blood running down his forehead and another who had fallen to the floor were seen in the video, and one jet spotted through the window. State news agency IRNA said a protest letter would be submitted to the U.N. Security Council and secretary general over "the threat posed to the Mahan Air passenger plane." Iran's foreign ministry said protests had been lodged with the International Civil Aviation Organization -- a U.N. agency -- and the Swiss embassy in Tehran that handles U.S. interests in Iran since ties were cut in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic revolution. "If anything happens to the aircraft on its return flight, Iran will hold the United States responsible," foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi told IRNA. The US military said an "F-15 on a routine air mission... conducted a standard visual inspection of a Mahan Air passenger airliner at a safe distance of approximately 1,000 metres (yards)". US Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a statement after Iranian state television aired the footage of passengers in panic as the Mahan Air plane appeared to change course suddenly.
- 'Professional intercept' -
In an initial report, the state broadcaster said the military aircraft were believed to be Israeli. "After this dangerous action by the Israeli fighter, the pilot of the commercial plane quickly reduced the altitude of the flight to avoid colliding... injuring several passengers on board," it said.IRNA said the Mahan Air pilot made contact on the radio with two US fighter planes, before the aircraft landed safely in the Lebanese capital. CENTCOM, which covers the whole of the wider Middle East, insisted it was a "professional intercept... conducted in accordance with international standards."
"Once the F-15 pilot identified the aircraft as a Mahan Air passenger plane, the F-15 safely opened distance from the aircraft," it said. Iranian television called the incident "provocative and dangerous."A security source in Lebanon said the Iranian aircraft landed safely at Beirut international airport with "four lightly injured passengers" on board. Syrian state media said "planes believed to belong to the US-led coalition intercepted" the Iranian airliner over the Al-Tanf district on the border with Jordan and Iraq, forcing it to make "a sharp drop". The coalition operates a base in Al-Tanf to fight the Islamic State group in Syria, where Iran supports the regime in its nine-year-old civil war.

WHO Chief Scientist Sees No Herd Immunity Yet
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
The chief scientist at the World Health Organization estimated Friday that about 50% to 60% of the population will need to be immune to the coronavirus for there to be any protective “herd immunity” effect.
Herd immunity is usually achieved through vaccination and occurs when most of a population is immune to a disease, blocking its continued spread. During a social media event, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said that studies done from some countries hit hard by COVID-19 show that about 5% to 10% of people now have antibodies, though in some countries, it has been as high as 20%. She said: “As there are waves of this infection going through countries, people are going to develop antibodies and those people will hopefully be immune for sometime so they will also act as barriers and brakes to the spread."
Other experts have estimated that as much as 70% to 80% of the population need to have antibodies before there is any herd immunity effect. In the pandemic’s earlier stages, countries including Britain proposed achieving herd immunity as an outbreak response strategy. But Swaminathan pointed out that achieving this effect with a vaccine is much safer than letting the virus rip through the population. She said that to achieve herd immunity through natural infection, you need to have several waves and you will see the morbidity and mortality that we see now.

Istanbul's Hagia Sophia Opens as a Mosque for Muslim Prayers
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
Hundreds of Muslim faithful were making their way to Istanbul’s landmark Hagia Sophia on Friday to take part in the first prayers in 86 years at the structure that once was one of Christendom’s most significant cathedrals, then a mosque and museum before its reconversion into a Muslim place of worship.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to attend the inaugural prayers inside the sixth-century monument along with around 500 dignitaries, as he fulfills what he has described as the "dream of our youth" anchored in Turkey's Islamic movement.
Thousands of men and women, including many who traveled from across Turkey, are set to perform prayers in segregated areas outside Hagia Sophia. Several camped near the structure overnight. Orthodox church leaders in Greece and the United States, meanwhile, were scheduled to observe "a day of mourning" over the inaugural prayers. Brushing aside international criticism, Erdogan issued a decree restoring the iconic building as a mosque earlier this month, shortly after a Turkish high court ruled that the Hagia Sophia had been illegally made into a museum more than eight decades ago. The structure has since been renamed "The Grand Hagia Sophia Mosque."The move sparked dismay in Greece, the United States and among Christian churches who had called on Erdogan to maintain it as a museum as a nod to Istanbul's multi-religious heritage and the structure's status as a symbol of Christian and Muslim unity. Pope Francis expressed his sadness. Built by the Byzantine Emperor Justinian in 537, Hagia Sophia was turned into a mosque with the 1453 Ottoman conquest of Istanbul. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding leader of the secular Turkish republic converted the structure into a museum in 1934. Although an annex to the Hagia Sophia, the Sultan’s pavilion, has been open to prayers since the 1990s, religious and nationalist group in Turkey have long yearned for the nearly 1,500-year-old edifice, which they regard as the legacy of Ottoman Sultan Mehmet the Conqueror, to be reverted into a mosque.
"This is Hagia Sophia breaking away from its captivity chains. It was the greatest dream of our youth," Erdogan said last week. "It was the yearning of our people and it has been accomplished." Erdogan also described its conversion into a museum by the republic’s founding leaders as a mistake that is being rectified. In New York, the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America, called the inaugural prayers a "cultural and spiritual misappropriation and a violation of all standards of religious harmony and mutual respect." It called on the faithful to observe a day "of mourning and of manifest grief." Archbishop Elpidophoros of America held a meeting with US President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence in Washington on Thursday to discuss concerns over the reconversion.

Greek PM Calls Turkey a 'Troublemaker'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
Church bells across Greece tolled in mourning on Friday as the first Islamic prayers in nine decades were held at Hagia Sophia in Turkey, marking the monument’s conversion into a mosque. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined huge crowds in Istanbul for prayers at Hagia Sophia, sealing his ambition to restore Muslim worship at the ancient site which most Greeks consider as central to their Orthodox Christian religion. Greek criticism of the conversion has been scathing, underscoring often tense relations between Greece and Turkey. In a message marking Greece’s 46th anniversary of the restoration of democracy on Friday, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called Turkey a “troublemaker”, and the Hagia Sophia conversion an “affront to civilization of the 21st century”. “What is unfolding in Constantinople today is not a demonstration of strength, but proof of weakness,” Mitsotakis said, referring to Istanbul by the old name of the city used by Greeks. Greece and Turkey disagree on a range of issues from airspace to maritime zones and ethnically split Cyprus. Tensions upped a notch this week with verbal jousting over the delimitation of their continental shelves in the eastern Mediterranean, an area thought to be rich in natural resources. From Crete to small Greek islands lying just off the Turkish coast, church bells tolled and in some areas flags flew at half-mast. “We thought someone had died but we were told it was for Hagia Sophia. It’s very sad, very sad,” said Katerina, 40, a shop owner on the island of Astypalea.

UN Rights Office Calls on US to Rein in Police at Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
US police and security forces must not use disproportionate force against protesters and journalists in US cities including Portland or detain them unlawfully, the United Nations human rights office said on Friday. “There have been reports that peaceful protesters have been detained by unidentified police officers and that is a worry because it may place those detained outside the protection of the law and may give rise to arbitrary detention and other human rights violations,” Liz Throssell, UN human rights spokeswoman, told a Geneva news briefing. “The authorities should ensure that federal and local security forces deployed are properly and clearly identified and would use force only when necessary, proportionately and in accordance with international standards,” she added, Reuters reported. The US Justice Department said on Thursday it would investigate the use of force by federal agents against protesters in Portland after another night of unrest in which Mayor Ted Wheeler was tear-gassed.

Christopher Columbus Statue Taken Down at Chicago Park
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
A statue of Christopher Columbus that drew chaotic protests in Chicago's Grant Park was taken down early Friday amid a plan by President Donald Trump to dispatch federal law enforcement agents to the city. Crews used a large crane to remove the statue from its pedestal as a small crowd gathered to watch. Several work trucks were seen in the area but it was unclear where the statue could be taken. The White House plan came after a protest over the statue led to police swinging batons and demonstrators hurling frozen water bottles, fireworks and other projectiles at officers. It also stemmed from a shooting during a funeral that wounded 15 people. A collection of activist groups had filed suit Wednesday, seeking to block federal agents from interfering in or policing protests. State officials in Oregon had sued for similar requests following the arrival of federal law enforcement due to nearly two months of protests in Portland since the death of George Floyd.

Israeli Police Use Water Cannons on Protesters, Arrest 55
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
Israeli police used water cannons to disperse protesters in central Jerusalem and arrested at least 55 of them as clashes broke out overnight after thousands staged a protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israelis have held a series of demonstrations in recent weeks calling on Netanyahu to resign, citing his trial on corruption charges and his fractious unity government's poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The protest near the prime minister's residence began around sundown on Thursday and was initially largely peaceful. A smaller counter-protest in support of Netanyahu was held nearby, with the two camps separated by metal barricades and a large police presence. bPolice say they moved in to disperse the protesters when they tried to stage a procession through the city. Police scuffled with demonstrators before four large trucks roared into action, spraying water cannons back and forth, scattering the protesters. At times, it appeared the trucks were spraying protesters from behind as they tried to leave the area peacefully. Israel imposed a general lockdown when the first coronavirus cases appeared in March and by May had largely succeeded in containing the outbreak. But then it moved quickly to lift virtually all restrictions, and in the following weeks cases surged. The country has reported a total of more than 57,000 cases and at least 442 deaths. More than 24,000 patients have recovered. A unity government formed in May following three inconclusive elections in less than a year was supposed to prioritize the pandemic. Instead, it has been plagued by infighting and unable to agree on clear policies to combat the pandemic. Netanyahu meanwhile faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust over a series of long-running corruption investigations. Critics say he is more focused on escaping legal accountability than on containing the pandemic. Many have speculated he intends to call yet another election, allegations he dismissed as "absurd" in a Thursday press conference. At the same conference, held as the protests were underway, he called on demonstrators not to clash with police, saying it would "lead to anarchy."

Rockets Hit Military Base South of Baghdad, No Casualties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
Four Katyusha rockets hit a military base used by US-led coalition troops south of Baghdad on Friday and caused some material damage but no casualties, the Iraqi military said in a statement.nThe rockets hit Besmaya base, where Spanish troops have been based as part of the fight directed by the US-led coalition against ISIS. The coalition is reducing its troops in Iraq. A number of rocket and mortar attacks have hit bases hosting coalition forces and landed near the US embassy in Baghdad in recent months. The United States blames Iran-backed militia groups. No known paramilitary groups loyal to Iran have claimed responsibility for the attacks.

German Curator Kidnapped in Iraq Freed in Security Operation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
A German arts curator who was kidnapped earlier this week was freed Friday by Iraqi security forces, security and government officials said. Hella Mewis was freed at 6:25 am local time (0325 GMT) in an operation outside the capital Baghdad in which security forces raided a location based on information they obtained regarding her whereabouts, a security official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to give official press statements. Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasool posted on Twitter that security forces liberated Mewis, without providing further details. Mewis was reported missing by friends and activists Tuesday. Security officials said she was kidnapped outside the Baghdad arts center where she worked. There was no claim of responsibility and officials didn't say who was behind the kidnapping. Mewis is well known in Iraq’s art scene and an ardent supporter of mass anti-government protests. Her abduction prompted alarm among Iraqi activists and other foreigners living in the country. It came two weeks after the killing of prominent Iraqi researcher and commentator Hisham al-Hashemi by unknown gunmen.

Emergency Arab Meeting Scheduled to Tackle UNRWA Crisis
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
Head of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Department of Refugee Affairs, Ahmad Abu Holi, said Thursday that an emergency meeting of the Arab League and Arab states hosting Palestinian refugees will be held next week to discuss the financial crisis at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). In a press statement, Abu Holi explained there are ongoing contacts among these countries to formulate a joint work mechanism and reach a common position to protect refugee camps from the spread of COVID-19 and to collect funds for the UNRWA budget. “The meeting will be held next Monday at the request of Palestine and under the presidency of Jordan to discuss the UNRWA’s financial situation,” in light of its serious crisis due to a lack of international funds, the official said. Abu Holi added that the meeting would also tackle the latest developments related to the COVID-19 crisis inside Palestinian camps in several Arab countries and the agency’s plans for the 2020-2021 academic year in wake of the ongoing pandemic. Earlier this year, UNRWA demanded a budget of $1.4 billion for 2020. However, it has so far received only $416 million, which will impact its ability to implement its humanitarian programs. UNRWA officials say the agency faces the "most serious financial crisis" since its establishment in 1949, which was exacerbated with the COVID-19 pandemic. UNRWA is a United Nations agency established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1949 and mandated to provide assistance and protection to some 5.6 million Palestine refugees registered with the agency across its five fields of operation.

Taliban Say Ready for Talks With Kabul After Eid Holiday
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
The Taliban said on Thursday they are ready for talks with Afghanistan's political leadership after the Muslim holiday of Eid ul Adha at the end of July, offering to hand over the last of the government prisoners in a week's time, providing the government frees the last of its Taliban prisoners. The offer made by Taliban’s political spokesman Suhail Shaheen in a tweet late Thursday follows one of the most significant shakeups in the Taliban in years. The group appointed the son of the movement’s fearsome founder to head its military wing and powerful leadership council members to its negotiation team. In Kabul on Friday, the High Council for National Reconciliation, which was created in May to manage peace efforts with the Taliban, said it was still working through the Taliban's prisoner list, the Associated Press reported. Javed Faisal, spokesman for the Afghan national security adviser's office, previously said nearly 600 Taliban prisoners whose release is being sought have been convicted of serious crimes. However, the government is reluctant to set them free, he noted. It seemed unlikely the government would free the remaining Taliban prisoners before the Muslim holiday. The release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the government and 1,000 government personnel and security officials in Taliban custody is laid out in a US deal with the Taliban aimed at ending Afghanistan’s relentless wars. According to the deal, the prisoner exchange is to take place ahead of talks between Kabul and the Taliban, seen as perhaps the most critical part of the deal. Shaheen's tweet was the first offer at a timeline for the negotiations, however he demanded the prisoner release be completed first and refused any substitutes to the list of prisoners submitted by the Taliban.

New Wave of Migrants Overwhelms Italian Island
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 24 July, 2020
About 100 migrants who crossed the Mediterranean in small boats landed on the southern island of Lampedusa during the night, the latest in a wave of arrivals straining an already overcrowded holding center. Officials said the migrants, arriving from Libya, were either rescued at sea or managed to avoid detection and reach the island. The arrivals of small boats, some carrying as few as eight people, brought to nearly 1,000 the number of migrants who have reached the island from Libya in the last three days, Reuters reported. About 15 boats carrying some 300 migrants arrived during the night between Wednesday and Thursday. They were put in a holding center called the "hotspot". Designed to hold about 100 people, in recent days it has been home to nearly 10 times as many. Provincial officials this week ordered the emergency transfer of about 300 migrants to another center in Sicily. The recent overcrowding in Lampedusa has also led to immigration resurfacing as a political issue. Former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the anti-immigrant League party, visited Lampedusa and the "hotspot" on Wednesday and accused the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of being soft on illegal migration. "I can't wait to return to a government with serious people so I can close the ports again to block delinquents and reopen them to law-abiding citizens," he told supporters on the island. When he was interior minister in the previous government, which collapsed about a year ago, Salvini closed Italian ports to rescue ships run by charities. In response, Enrico Borghi, of the governing Democratic Party, accused Salvini of being a "demagogue" and said the current government was not going to "watch men and women drown".

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 24-25/2020

Iran’s New Make-believe Diplomacy
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/July,24/2020
How does the Khomeinist leadership in Tehran see the contemporary world?
The question has intrigued Iran-watchers for decades.
One reason for being puzzled is the fog of slogans that covers the reality of Iran’s behavior. Besides that opacity, we have the reality of a bifocal foreign policy divided between a faction that dreams of reshaping the world and another that craves admission to it. Now, however, it seems that, for the first time, the Khomeinist ruling elite is beginning to understand that it can neither reshape the world nor join it on its own antediluvian terms. Unable to admit that reality, the Tehran ruling elite is trying to conjure a fantasy world in which the Islamic Republic retains some relevance.
One sign of that came last week when Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif addressed the newly formed Islamic Consultative Assembly (an ersatz parliament).
Zarif touted his 5,000-word presentation as a review of the international situation. He said that in the past 70 to 100 years, especially after World War II, the world has witnessed fundamental changes that redefined international relations and concepts.
He doesn’t say which concepts and relations, but borrows clichés such as “transition period” “fluidity” and “constant becoming” from American foreign policy analysts like Joseph Nye and Richard Haas to give his presentation an academic veneer.
He admits that, despite its geopolitical and strategic importance, Iran has not secured a role in this changing world; remaining an object rather than a subject even in its own history. However, he also asserts that the world order created by Western powers led by the United States has reached the end as short-term, case-by-case relations are replacing long term alliances. Because today nothing can be certain, it would be dangerous for the Islamic Republic to regard any relationship with certitude.
If you feel confused by all this, don’t be surprised. Zarif is trying to square the circle by defining a place for an Islamic Republic that wants to be part of a world order which it hopes to destroy. To please his Hate-America audience, Zarif insists that the US no longer has a leadership position.
And yet his presentation cites the United States 16 times while other supposedly new poles, China and Russia, are mentioned only twice.
On Russia, he recalls a letter that Khomeini sent to the then Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, inviting him to abandon Communism and convert to Khomeinism. Zarif says the present “Supreme Leader” is “pursuing the same path”, although it is not clear whether or not Khamenei has urged Vladimir Putin to adopt Khomeinism.
Almost all of Zarif’s presentation is inspired by reading and misreading of American foreign policy wonks. And the only foreign source he mentions is former US National Security Advisor John Bolton.
Zarif forgets that the first four years of his ministry were devoted to cooking up and dishing out the so-called “nuke deal” with the same irrelevant Americans. He never mentions the “nuke deal” which he now admits was a bill of goods sold to him by “that fellow John Kerry”. Perhaps to please the Hate-America crowd he also claims that his top priority is to replace the US dollar in Iran’s foreign trade which, he says must be reorganized on a barter basis.
Zarif claims that, internationally, one-night stands have replaced long term relationships. Yet he says Iran is trying to join the Eurasia bloc led by Russia. He also mentions a 25-year “strategic alliance” with China, something that looks like a hoax marketed by a weekly in London and a daily in New York.
To claim some originality, he says he is now focusing on relations with neighbors as opposed to wooing the “Great Satan”. Yet of Iran’s 15 neighbors he names only six with which he claims “best relations”.
Even then his claim is questionable.
For example, Iran and Turkey are on opposite sides on Syria and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Turkey has built a 130-kilometer wall to seal off part of its border with Iran and last week also banned Iranian airlines from flying to Turkish cities.
As for Pakistan, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims that some 80 armed groups operating against Iran are based in Pakistan while Pakistanis claim Tehran is helping Baluchi groups sabotage the Chinese project in Gawadar.
Russia has reneged on more than a dozen promises given to Iran while using Iranian manpower as cannon fodder in Syria.
Relations with Afghanistan also remain dicey if only because Tehran flirts with the Talban while arming Shiite militias in two provinces.
Zarif does not mention Syria, Lebanon and Yemen because these are places where the Quds (Jerusalem) Corps runs the show. To pretend that his ministry wasn’t irrelevant, he says he held weekly meetings with Qassem Soleimani, presumably to be briefed on the empire the late general claimed to be building.
He makes no mention of relations with Europe, Japan and India while ignoring the huge sums of money and energy spent to project the regime’s image in Africa and Latin America. However, Zarif’s claim of regionalism may also be bogus.
A surprise omission is Israel which is supposed to be destroyed in the next 22 years. Also, no mention of Palestine which Tehran has always claimed as “number one priority.”Zarif’s expose contains no mention of “exporting revolution”, the regime’s perennial obsession. In other words, the Islamic Republic no longer hopes to make the region like itself. Yet it is too early to say that it may be starting to think of becoming like the rest of the region. Zarif is clearly confused. He has spent his whole adult life with an America-centered view of the world which, to keep his job, he is now obliged to abandon. And that leaves the Islamic Republic with a trompe l’oeil diplomacy; a sad spectacle for Iran, a potentially positive participant in regional and international life.

Emerging Markets Are Going to Pay the Price Again
Mihir Sharma//Bloomberg/July, 24/2020
Judging by the performance of emerging markets, you’d hardly know the world was suffering from a deadly pandemic. After a horrible March, according to the Institute for International Finance, non-resident portfolio flows into emerging markets increased tenfold to $32.9 billion in June. MSCI’s EM currency index hit a one-month high last Thursday. Even currencies as weak as the South African rand are seeing a bit of a rally. Of course, that doesn’t mean things are going well in developing nations themselves. If anything, many of them face longer and more troublesome recoveries than was anticipated at the depth of the market panic in March. Earnings aren’t expected to recover anytime soon. Here in India, the ratio of price to one-year forward earnings for stocks in the Nifty50 index is the highest it has been for a decade.
Behind this decoupling of markets and Main Street lies a familiar culprit: rich-world central banks. As they did after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan have pumped massive amounts of liquidity into their domestic markets. Those markets have rallied as intended and domestic investors, terrified at the prospect of missing out, have piled in. That in turn has forced institutional investors to search for yield in emerging markets.
If the entire process is disconnected from reality, that’s by design. The very purpose of unconventional monetary policy is to impose irrationality on markets.
Market insiders take this disconnect for granted; as Ajay Kumar of Bank of America Securities told Bloomberg TV, “sentiment and liquidity account for the bulk of your returns” at times like these. But the rest of the world doesn’t. And they’re right not to do so because, the last time this happened, emerging markets wound up badly damaged by the monetary policy of developed nations.
Yes, the Fed and others have done well to reverse the near-catastrophic outflows of capital from emerging markets that were visible in the early weeks of the pandemic. Though it wasn’t their intent, their actions helped EMs raise, by early June, more than $83 billion on global bond markets.
But, emerging markets should have learned by now that this is a poisoned chalice. Over the medium- and long-term, the West’s money printing will burden the developing world with volatility, instability, and subdued growth and investment.
Consider India’s experience. In the years after 2008, the country enjoyed a sharp liquidity- and stimulus-driven rebound. But then commodity prices shot up. That increased inflation, drained foreign-exchange reserves and caused inflationary expectations to drift up unanchored.
Asset-price inflation caused endless pain domestically; real estate prices, for example, shot up so high that the market is still not working properly. And, worst of all, cheap liquidity led to indiscriminate lending and a bad-loan crisis that has crippled Indian growth and investment.
Nor were we masters of our own fate: In the infamous taper tantrum, a word from former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke drove the Indian rupee down to record lows. The Fed’s actions had political consequences as well, as voters took out their anger on the hapless incumbent government.
Naturally, this process won’t unfold the same way twice. The driver won’t be oil prices this time, and perhaps not real estate. All we can say for certain is that something of the sort will indeed happen again. All that liquidity will have to settle somewhere and it will probably wind up flowing to whichever real asset is seen as being scarcest and most future-proofed on the margin. Rare earths, perhaps, in our new digital world?
The fact that share prices and currency indices are so detached from reality is the surest sign that the process is underway. These are the first conduits through which the irrationality of central bank actions elsewhere begins to affect emerging economies. The MSCI index of EM equities has had a great quarter but remember, the last time it had such a good quarter was 2009. Inevitably, the combination of unrestrained liquidity and a crisis mentality will weaken already fragile governance structures in both financial markets and the real economy. Central banks in the West have been warned of this often. Raghuram Rajan, who as governor of the Reserve Bank of India had to deal with the consequences for India of unconventional monetary policy elsewhere, has constantly argued for setting “rules of the game” for central banks so that they don’t destabilize emerging markets.
Rajan makes a simple, if under-appreciated point: “The bottom line is that simply because a policy is called monetary, unconventional or otherwise, it may not be beneficial on net for the world.” The failure to learn the lessons of the last stimulus may now doom emerging markets to another decade of subpar growth and political instability.
 

The Rising Chinese Imperialism and the New Cold War
Charles Elias Chartouni/July, 24/2020
Facts do not Cease to Exist Because they are Ignored (Aldous Huxley)
The clash between the rising Chinese power game and the United States brings the multi-centric world into a new strategic equation, whereby the pillars of the erstwhile Cold War era are repositioning themselves on the very basis of a new international dynamic based on technological emulation, remapped international division of labor, trade competition, conventional and nuclear power projections, overlapping global interdependencies and systemic acculturation processes. We are witnessing “ the closing of power gaps and the widening of cultural clashes “ and ideological rifts, moving along shifting and disorderly trajectories which challenge the impermeability of older strategic and ideological divides.
The nascent Chinese neo-imperialism collides with the imponderables of a liberalizing and deeply divided Chinese society ( Ethno-religious, rural-urban, class cleavages, Worldviews and lifestyles disparities...), the contradictions and dislocations caused by abrupt economic and social transitions, the widespread apprehensions of its East, South East and South Asian neighbors, and the growing worldwide protectionism against Chinese predation and outright violation of International trade, technology transfer, labor, environmental and health care standards and regulations set by the WTO, and the multilateral treaties and institutions. We should add to it a new pattern of economic and political power projection that questions openly the international liberal order, the Brettonwoods agreement ( 1944 ), and their institutions and intellectual consensuses.
The confrontational stance of the Trump administration, far from being idiosyncratic, displays the inevitable colliding course and the need to checkmate it, and set the architecture of a new alliance built on a continuum between a Pacific NATO and the ASEAN intergovernmental organization, to contain Chinese imperialism and reengage China along the democratic and liberal principles which have structured World peace in the aftermath of WWII. The new course engaged by China and Russia is epitomized by opportunistic coalitions crafted around the marshaling of rogues States, the hypothetical creation of a counter-international system based on tributary States and economies and regimes of political suzerainty, and the disruption of the liberal World order. This new power dynamic should be stymied, if the world is to preempt the totalitarian propensities of the Chinese economic juggernaut, and the political revanchism of a self defeating Russian imperialism, and their hazardous fallouts on World’s stability and peace.

Indoctrinated in Hate: Palestinian Schools Are Typical Muslim Schools
Raymond Ibrahim/July, 24/2020
Indoctrinating Palestinian schoolchildren to hate and oppose the existence of Israel is rife, a recent study found after examining nearly 400 textbooks and over 100 teachers’ guides issued by the Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Education between 2013 and 2020.
According to its author, Dr. Arnon Groiss of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, there are three aspects to this education:
[1] De-legitimization of the State of Israel’s existence and the very presence of Jews in the Land of Israel, including the denial of the existence of Jewish holy places in the Land of Israel; [2] demonization of Israel and the Jews: “The Zionist enemy,[”] according to the description appearing in the schoolbooks, is wholly evil and constitutes an existential threat to the Palestinians who are depicted as the ultimate victim, with no shared responsibility for the conflict; and [3] education for a violent struggle for the liberation of the Land of Israel (Palestine) with no education for peace and co-existence. In none of the PA’s schoolbooks has any call for the resolution of the conflict peacefully, or any mentioning of co-existence with Israel been found.
A distinctly religious element further permeates if not dominates Palestinian views of Israel.According to an earlier report on this topic, also by Groiss, “Jews are demonized as well in the religious context, outside the context of the conflict. They are depicted as a corrupted nation from its very beginning and as enemies of Islam since its early days.”
Citing the Koran and other Islamic scriptures, Palestinian textbooks teach that “The corruption of the Children of Israel on earth was and will be the reason of their destruction”; and, though allied to them, Muhammad “was aware of the Jews’ deceitfulness and conspiracies.”
Moreover, “Islamic traditional ideals of Jihad and martyrdom are exalted and given a special role in the liberation struggle. In fact, there is one language exercise that specifically encourages martyrdom.”
While indoctrinating Palestinian schoolchildren to hate Jews may seem specific to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—that is, may appear to be a product of politics and grievances—it is, in fact, part of a broader trend: school textbooks in a variety of other Muslim nations also teach hate for the “other”—even those who, far from being in a position to “oppress” Muslims are actually being oppressed by them.
For instance, in 2018, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom issued a statement saying that it “is disappointed to find inflammatory content in Saudi textbooks that was previously thought to have been removed.” The commission “uncovered content promoting violence and hatred toward religious minorities and others,” often in connection to the Islamic doctrine of “loyalty and enmity,” which, based on the Koran (e.g., 60:4), requires Muslims to love what Allah loves and hate what Allah hates—which includes “infidels,” non-Muslims.
A separate report published by Human Rights Watch in 2017 touched on the indoctrination process: “As early as first grade, students in Saudi schools are being taught hatred toward all those perceived to be of a different faith or school of thought… The lessons in hate are reinforced with each following year.” Further troubling is that such hate-filled texts are not limited to Saudi schools but continue to be widely disseminated to madrasas throughout the world, including the U.S.
Schools in Pakistan also continue to “teach their children to hate Christians and other religious minorities,” a 2017 report found:
[I]nstead of minimizing hate materials and discouraging religious extremism [as the government had vowed to do after a particularly lethal Islamic terror attack on a school killed 132 students in 2014], the opposite seems to be occurring with a growing trend toward a more biased curriculum and more religious extremism being taught in Pakistan’s public schools.
Speaking in 2019, a Pakistani Christian leader said that religious “minorities are considered infidels and they are depicted negatively in textbooks, which promote prejudices against minorities.” Because of this:
Many minorities give their children Islamic names so they will not be singled out as Christians and become potential targets for discrimination in primary or secondary schools or at the college level…. In many cases, minority students do suffer abuse in public schools.
School textbooks in Turkey also demonize non-Muslims. Speaking of her experiences, a former Muslim woman who converted to Christianity explained how “her opinion of Christians was very low because of the things she and others were taught to believe about Christians in a Muslim society.” According to the convert, who now lives in the U.S. and goes by the pseudonym Derya Little, “An anti-Christian attitude is a big part of the national identity, so anyone or anything that promotes Christianity is automatically suspicious.”
School textbooks taught her that “it was the Christians who wanted to plunder the lands and the riches of the Muslim world” and Turks merely responded by “defend[ing] what was rightfully theirs.” (In reality, modern day Turkey consists of territory that was Christian for more than a millennium before being brutally conquered in the name of jihad.)
“Everything is used to make the Christians look like villains,” she said, adding, “It’s the same all through Muslim countries.”
And that is the point. If Palestinian schoolchildren are being indoctrinated to hate Israel and Jews for “stealing their land” and generally oppressing them, what explains the fact that other children all throughout the Islamic world are also being indoctrinated to hate other non-Muslims, particularly disenfranchised Christian minorities who, far from “lording” over Muslims, are currently being persecuted by them?
The answer—Islam’s ingrained sense of supremacism and hate for “the other”—should be self-evident.
Indeed, hate for disempowered religious minorities actually helps explain why Israel is so reviled. If, as Muslim children are taught, infidels must always be at their feet—“Muslims are Jerusalem’s masters and no voice shall be higher than their voice [there],” Palestinian texts teach—surely only militant outrage will remain whenever Muslims find themselves under “infidel” authority.

We’re All in Big Trouble Without Renewed Jobless Benefits
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July, 24/2020
The US has made many big mistakes in handling the coronavirus pandemic. But it got one big thing right. When the economy was collapsing amid fear of the virus, the federal government passed an unprecedented relief package. The centerpiece was what has come to be called pandemic unemployment insurance -- a $600 weekly payment to anyone who was out of work because of the coronavirus, on top of normal unemployment benefits. This became a lifeline for millions of Americans.
Pandemic UI was so generous that poverty in the US has actually gone down during the outbreak, despite a stunning spike in unemployment. This represents a monumental accomplishment, and it shows that a government renowned for partisan gridlock and dysfunction is still capable of flashes of effectiveness.
If pandemic UI expires, millions of Americans will find themselves unable to pay rent or even buy groceries. Human suffering and social unrest will increase dramatically, while the drop in demand will further wound the already-struggling economy.
Leaders are discussing an emergency short-term extension of the benefits. But this won’t be enough to avert an interruption in payments because the state agencies that administer the program will need time to update their systems. Even if there’s a patch, a great many Americans will have to re-apply for benefits. That’s going to be a source of extreme hassle, anxiety and fear for millions. State unemployment systems weren’t set up to handle this many claimants, and getting the money often involves standing in long lines and waiting weeks to know if your benefits have been denied. Many people fall through the cracks in the system and never get the benefits they deserve; those who won that grim lottery back in March and April will now be forced to roll the dice again.
And even if pandemic UI is renewed for the time being, cuts to the program may be on the horizon. Many conservatives are troubled because the benefits sometimes pay unemployed people more than their old jobs did. That seems like an obvious incentive for workers not to go back to work. The cost of the program, which has helped raise the US federal debt to all-time highs, is also causing sticker shock. To address both of these issues, Republicans have proposed lowering benefits from $600 a week to $400.
But conservatives’ concerns are probably unfounded. For one thing, the national debt is hardly an issue at this point. With yields on 30-year Treasuries at less than 1.5%, the federal government can easily shoulder the additional debt. And because coronavirus is a one-time occurrence, pandemic UI doesn’t create long-term structural deficits. This is the worst possible time for austerity.
As for whether pandemic UI is discouraging people from going back to work, although this is reasonable in theory, evidence shows that it’s also not much of a concern at this point. If pandemic UI were causing a shortage of workers, we’d expect to see wages rising, as companies tried to lure workers back. But median wages are little changed. And data from human-resources management company Automatic Data Processing Inc. shows that workers were much more likely to face wage cuts or freezes this May than they were in May 2019.
Job vacancies are also down relative to the number of unemployed workers, suggesting that companies aren’t being forced to work very hard to find employees. Most top economists now agree that a lack of labor demand, rather than unwillingness to work, is the reason unemployment is high.
Why would paying people not to work have so little effect on unemployment? One possible reason is that the headache and risk of applying for unemployment benefits is less attractive than the stability of a job. The possibility that Congress will cut off benefits, or make people re-apply, is another reason to want a steady job instead of a government check that might end on short notice. Finally, pandemic UI is probably acting as a fiscal stimulus, sustaining aggregate demand and thus boosting general demand for labor.
So although paying people not to work is a bad idea in normal times, in the current crisis situation it looks like it’s safe to do. If Congress is so concerned about the disincentive effects of pandemic UI, it could let people keep some of the benefits if they later return to work, thus removing the incentive to stay at home. But given the evidence that pandemic UI isn’t raising unemployment, the easiest course of action would just be to renew the full $600 benefit for a few more months. The program has its flaws, but it has been the most effective thing the US government has done in response to this crisis.

You Don’t Need Profits Anymore
Matt Levine/Bloomberg/July, 24/2020
Vaccine Profits
Oh man I feel like I need to go down to Congress and explain some stuff:
Executives from four companies in the race to produce a coronavirus vaccine — AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics and Pfizer — told lawmakers on Tuesday that they are optimistic their products could be ready by the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021. All four companies are testing vaccines in human clinical trials.
Three of the firms — AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna — are getting federal funds for their vaccine development efforts. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson pledged to the lawmakers that they would produce hundreds of millions of doses of their vaccines at no profit to themselves. Moderna, however, which has been granted $483 million from the government to develop its product, made no such promise. “We will not sell it at cost,” said Dr. Stephen Hoge, the president of Moderna. …At the Congressional hearing on Tuesday, some House members raised concerns about Pfizer’s decision to reject federal funds, suggesting it could lead to price-gouging and a lack of transparency.
Don’t worry, the thing I am going to explain is not Econ 101. I’m not going to go to Congress and be like “if you don’t let pharmaceutical companies make a profit on a vaccine that billions of people need, they will have no incentive to make it, so you will not get a vaccine and people will die.” I don’t know if that’s true—the federal funding is itself an incentive, as is the desire to save lives, etc.—but more to the point, you can get tons of people to explain it to Congress, there are people whose whole careers are just explaining Econ 101 to Congress, that one is boring and easy.
No, the thing I am going to explain to Congress is that almost 30% of Pfizer Inc.’s stock is held by Vanguard Group, BlackRock Inc., State Street Corp., Capital Group Cos. and Wellington Management Group. All of those are giant institutional investment firms that own shares of hundreds or thousands of companies, and those are just Pfizer’s biggest holders; lots of investors lower down the list are also huge diversified institutions. If Pfizer finds a coronavirus vaccine and distributes it as widely as possible—even at cost, even below cost, even for free, even at an enormous loss—it will make its owners richer by many many billions of dollars. BlackRock, for instance, owns about $16 billion of Pfizer stock. If Pfizer went to zero—if it bankrupted itself, selflessly producing and distributing vaccines—BlackRock (really its clients) would lose $16 billion. BlackRock owns about $2.9 trillion of other stocks; if a coronavirus vaccine allowed businesses to reopen and normal economic life to resume, and as a result those other stocks went up by 1 percent, that would more than make up for bankrupting Pfizer.
For BlackRock, I mean. BlackRock would be happy with that tradeoff, as would its clients, as would Vanguard and State Street and, in all likelihood, a majority of Pfizer’s shareholders, many of whom are diversified investors who own a lot of companies that aren’t Pfizer and are struggling. Presumably Pfizer’s executives would be sad about it. Right now they have prestigious jobs where they get paid a lot; if Pfizer went bankrupt then they would be embarrassed and probably stop getting paid. And they’re the ones who set the prices.
But there is a trade there, you know? That is the thing that I want to explain to Congress. The shareholders, in some loose sense, own the company; in some loose sense, Pfizer’s executives are getting paid with the shareholders’ money; in some loose sense, the shareholders are the executives’ bosses. If the shareholders were to call up the executives and say “look, if you find a working vaccine and give it away for free, we will give you a bonus pool of one billion dollars to share with each other and your scientists,” then … presumably that would be an incentive? Like, the executives would think “if we find this vaccine and make a big profit I’ll probably get like a $17 million bonus, but if we find it and make no profit I’ll definitely get like a $100 million bonus,” and they will have strong incentives to (1) find it and (2) give it away. Econ, like, 101.5, really.
One way to think about this, if you’re Congress, is that we’ve got a whole great big economy, and a vaccine will be very very good for the economy as a whole, and what you want is to find some mechanism to transfer some of that value—enough to incentivize vaccine research and development and production—from the rest of the economy (the households and restaurants and retailers and everyone else who will benefit, economically, from a vaccine) to the people researching and developing and producing the vaccine. You want the people who benefit from the vaccine and are happy about it to send some money to the people who make the vaccine, so that those people will be happy to make the vaccine.
There’s a super traditional Econ 101 way to do that, which is pricing; the people who make the vaccine can charge a lot of money to the people who want the vaccine. There are problems with this method, which I will not dwell on here because Congress is obviously well aware of them. (Some people don’t have the money to pay for the vaccine, etc.)
All I am saying is that now there is a new way! Now the whole great big economy is knitted together not only by pricing in product markets but also by common ownership of all the stocks by the same investors, and so you can think of all of the companies—Pfizer, American Airlines, Carnival Cruises, The Gap, whoever—as divisions of one giant company, and the one giant company has an executive committee (Larry Fink and the other heads of big investment firms), and the executive committee can tell the divisions (Pfizer, etc.) what to do and how much to charge, and if the giant company’s executive committee says “we are going to have our Pfizer division try to find a vaccine and give it away as a loss leader to improve the performance in our other divisions” then, you know, fine, that’s how divisions operate, that’s how corporate hierarchies go, it’s fine. It’s not quite like that—there is no giant company, there is no hierarchy—but it is kind of like that, it is enough like that that you ought to start thinking about it, that you ought to think of giant public corporations not as acting on their own pure selfish self-contained profit motives but as part of a vector of interests of their diversified investors, and that you could maybe use that. “Sure, pharmaceutical executive, you say you want to make a big profit on this drug, but what if we asked your owners what they want?”
To be clear, Pfizer doesn’t say it wants to make a big profit. It says … what you’d expect it to say, in its owners’ interest:
“We didn’t accept the federal government funding solely for the reason that we wanted to be able to move as quickly as possible with our vaccine candidate into the clinic,” said John Young, Pfizer’s chief business officer.
“We’ll price our potential vaccine consistent with the urgent global health emergency that we’re facing,” Mr. Young said, adding that “a vaccine is meaningless if people are unable to afford it.”
Plenty of drug companies sell plenty of drugs that plenty of people aren’t able to afford, not because they are meaningful but because they are profitable; this is a different situation.
I have written versions of this argument before, but I still feel like Congress might enjoy hearing it.
Moderna has more concentrated owners than the bigger companies, though. If you don’t like drug profits maybe you have to regulate them or nationalize them or whatever, that’s not my problem, that’s Congress’s problem.
Elsewhere in indexing
Uh oh, this is happening:
Tesla Inc., for the first time in its 17-year history, reported a fourth-consecutive profitable quarter, a milestone that is sure to bolster Chief Executive Elon Musk’s pitch that he can usher in the age of fully electric cars. …
The achievement of four cumulative quarters of profitability means Tesla can now be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500 index. If included, large index funds would likely race to include the shares among their holdings.
Bloomberg tells me that the total market capitalization of companies in the S&P 500 is about $27 trillion; S&P tells me that there is about $4.6 trillion indexed to the S&P 500. Dividing those numbers suggests that when Tesla is added to the S&P, index funds might need to buy about 17% of its stock. Tesla’s stock price bounces around a lot, but as of yesterday’s close its market capitalization was about $295 billion; 17% of that is about $50 billion. So index funds would have to buy $50 billion of Tesla stock when it is added to the index. That number is too high—S&P weightings are based on float-adjusted market cap, and Musk owns a lot of Tesla stock—but on the other hand it doesn’t count all the active managers who are benchmarked to the S&P 500 and might give Tesla a whirl once it’s in the index.
It’s a lot:
With a market capitalization of $304 billion, according to FactSet, Tesla is the 12th largest US company, ahead of names like JPMorgan, UnitedHealth and Home Depot. Research firm Baird noted that it would be the largest company ever added to the index. According to analysis from Credit Suisse, Facebook was the last mega cap company added to the index back in 2013, when it was worth roughly $120 billion.
“Accordingly, it’s possible an S&P add may not occur until 2021,” the firm said, noting the company’s size. “That said, once Tesla becomes eligible, we would expect S&P to see pressure to add Tesla to the index.”
One popular partial explanation for the recent rise in Tesla’s stock price is that it is much beloved among retail traders on Robinhood. Robintrack, a website that tracks Robinhood traders’ holdings, lists Tesla as the 8th-most-popular stock at the brokerage, held in about 500,000 Robinhood accounts, up from about 200,000 in March. The average Robinhood account size is apparently $4,800. If all 500,000 of those Robinhood traders who own Tesla (1) have twice as much money in their accounts as the average Robinhood investor and (2) put all of it into Tesla, they would represent about $5 billion of demand for Tesla, or about one-tenth the demand that might be coming from index funds. If Robinhood demand has been responsible for Tesla’s 280% rise so far this year, then watch out when the index demand comes in.
One popular criticism of large-cap indexes like the S&P 500 is that companies tend to get added to the index after they have gone up a lot, which means that index funds structurally tend to buy high and sell low. If a company has a bubble and gets big, the index funds will buy it at the top of its bubble; if the bubble pops they’ll sell it at the bottom. The good news is that if a company bubbles its way into the S&P 500, it will usually be one of the smallest companies in the index—it will bubble up from like number 600 to like number 495, at which point it will be added to the index—and index funds won’t have to buy that much of it. Tesla is unusual in that it grew enormous while being ineligible for the S&P 500 (due to a lack of full-year profits), so it will join the S&P as the largest newcomer ever after a wild rally. Maybe that’s fine!
On the other hand maybe indexing will make Tesla boring? Basically the reason you buy Tesla stock now is that you love Elon Musk, or Musk announced some big piece of good news, or you’ve decided to start gambling on stocks because you’re bored; the reason you sell Tesla stock now is that you hate Elon Musk, or Musk announced “Tesla stock price is too high imo.” Once Tesla is in the S&P 500, a lot of people will be buying and selling it for soporific reasons: You make your monthly 401(k) contribution and half a percent of that goes to Tesla, or you’re a market maker in S&P 500 futures hedging your exposure by selling a basket of constituents including Tesla, that sort of thing. Things that are blessedly unrelated to Elon Musk’s Twitter feed. Right now Tesla is driven by news and emotion and Twitter, but putting it in the index will create huge sources of supply and demand that have nothing to do with any of that; it will turn Tesla’s stock from a pure bet on Tesla’s business and image into, partly, a tool for generic stock-market investing, used by lots of people who don’t actually care about Tesla. Maybe that will calm things down a bit.
Central bank accounting
The US Federal Reserve has a balance sheet, which is audited by KPMG LLP, and which lists the Fed’s assets and liabilities. This balance sheet is of considerable interest to a lot of people but not, I think, for quite the same reasons that a company’s balance sheet is of interest to its investors. The Fed’s balance sheet provides a window into monetary policy and financial conditions and the banking system, but investors do not generally look at the Fed’s balance sheet to answer questions like “how creditworthy is the Fed?” or “what are the odds of the Fed running out of money?” The Fed creates the money! As a matter of monetary policy it is interesting to know how many Treasury bonds the Fed owns, but as a matter of understanding the Fed’s solvency, the main asset is “we can print as many dollars as we want,” and the value of that asset is infinity.
I am going to get so many angry emails about that paragraph, oh boy. Certainly it is all very loose and not at all how accounting works. Plus even if you believe it, in its loose way, it is only really plausible for the central bank of a big country that prints its own stable currency that is much in demand globally. Meanwhile in Lebanon!
Lebanon’s central bank chief arbitrarily boosted the institution’s assets by at least $6bn using unorthodox accounting measures as the country’s financial system careered towards collapse, leaked financial statements indicate.
The 2018 audited statements, a copy of which was seen by the Financial Times, reinforce concerns that Riad Salame, the veteran Central Bank of Lebanon (BdL) governor, relied on shifting accounting practices to swell the bank’s assets and balance its books as risky liabilities grew.
The accounts, which were signed off by auditors EY and Deloitte with qualifications on June 30 this year and have not been made public, record an asset worth L£10tn ($6bn) for “seigniorage on financial stability”, whose value “the governor determines . . . as deemed appropriate by him”, according to the financial statements.
“This is too bizarre for words,” said Willem Buiter, former Citigroup global chief economist, academic and central banking specialist. “It is just a way of accounting to artificially blow up the assets of the central bank and hide [its] massively negative net worth or capital.” He added: “Many of the assets are inventions.”
Joerg Bibow, an economics professor at Skidmore College, New York, said it was highly unusual that the governor’s judgment should be used to determine an asset’s value, as they are normally defined by standardised accounting rules. “I’ve never heard that the governor can make up a number,” he said. ...
Since 2009, even the BdL’s unorthodox definition of seigniorage has gone beyond the conventional connotation of currency production, to add L£18tn in expected future profits from its holdings of Lebanese government debt, and finally in 2018 including an expected profit generated by “financial stability” as valued by the governor.
Yeah, look, a central bank is a weird creature, and I am sure that running one would be a heady experience. “I can just print money,” you might think, “the world is my oyster, my balance sheet can be as big as I want, this is magical!” But you gotta keep those thoughts to yourself! Particularly if your currency is not a global hegemon, if investors do worry about your solvency and foreign-reserves position, you can’t really have your balance sheet say “Assets: Whatever we want!” It is tempting, I know, but it doesn’t work that way.