English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 19/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10/38-42/:”Now as they went on their way, he entered a certain village, where a woman named Martha welcomed him into her home. She had a sister named Mary, who sat at the Lord’s feet and listened to what he was saying. But Martha was distracted by her many tasks; so she came to him and asked, ‘Lord, do you not care that my sister has left me to do all the work by myself? Tell her then to help me.’ But the Lord answered her, ‘Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her.’”

 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 18-19/2020
MoPH announces additional results of returnees' PCR tests
"In vain is our fight against corruption if we do not conduct financial investigations," says Aoun
Dialogue needed over issue of Lebanon’s ‘neutrality’ in region, says PM Diab
Diab from Dimane: I Will Not Step Down, Neutrality Needs Deep Discussion
Report: Financial Adviser Lazard to Visit Beirut Next Week
Report: IMF Director Says Lebanon in 'Very Difficult' Economic Situation
Bukhari Recalls Beshara Khoury to Emphasize Arabism of Lebanon
Alleged Hezbollah associate extradited to US from Cyprus for money laundering
US Ambassador Visits UNIFIL HQ in Lebanon
Shiite Clerics Reject Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality, Qabalan Calls it 'Treason'
Lebanese block roads in protests against long power cuts
Bisri Valley national campaign members stage a sitin to protest against the dam construction
Ghajar to Radio Lebanon: Power supply to improve starting Wednesday
Makhzoumi after meeting Bukhari: Lebanon must stay away from axes policies
Armenian Deputies Bloc visits Mufti of Tripoli: Dar El Fatwa has a national role in establishing tranquility
Road blocks in Tyre to protest power outage
Hoballah responds to the question: Who is responsible for our current situation?
Bukhari quotes President Beshara Khoury
Najm: We urge the inspection committee to activate judicial work
Lebanon likely to have another fire season amid major economic crisis: Experts

 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 18-19/2020
In Baghdad, Iran’s Zarif seeks to sway Kadhimi before first foreign tour
Iraqi PM to Visit Saudi, Iran in Diplomatic Balancing Act
France Vows to Support Iraq’s Kurdistan Region
Explosions Target Iranian, Russian Positions in East Syria
Turkish Army, Regime Forces Exchange Fire in Idlib Countryside
SDF Launches 2nd Phase of 'Deterring Terrorism' Campaign
Blow to Erdogan as US boots Turkey out of F-35 strike fighter program
Erdogan Slams as ‘Illegal’ Egypt’s Intervention in Libya
France Says US Should Do More to Enforce Libya Arms Embargo
How lethally effective is Iran’s air defense system?ظDEBKAfile/July 18/2020
Exiled Iranian group, targeted by 2018 bomb plot, gathers online
Iran Sends Downed Ukrainian Plane's Black Box to France
Egypt rejects Turkey’s intervention in affairs of Arab states: FM spokesman
Kuwait’s Emir temporarily delegates some powers to crown prince
Tens of Thousands Stage anti-Kremlin Protests in Russia's Far East
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 18-19/2020

V-Shaped Real Estate Can Fly as a Recovery Bet/John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 18/2020
Trump May Sabotage the Next Relief Bill/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/July, 18/2020
Iran's Mohammad Javad Zarif supports terrorism, just like Qassem Soleimani/Reza Parchizadeh/Saturday 18 July 2020
New US-China rivalry will force the world to take sides/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/July 18/2020
Attack on Israel’s judges is an attack on its democracy/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 18/2020
Tunisia’s politicians would rather squabble than govern/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/July 18/2020

 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 18-19/2020

MoPH announces additional results of returnees' PCR tests
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
The Ministry of Public Health on Saturday announced the results of PCR tests that were conducted on July 16 in Beirut airport.
According to the Ministry, 9 passengers have tested positive for coronavirus; one case was detected among returnees from Frankfurt, Dubai and Doha and three among returnees from Iraq and Kuwait.

"In vain is our fight against corruption if we do not conduct financial investigations," says Aoun
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, tweeted this afternoon, saying: "It is in vain that we try to fight corruption if we do not carry out financial investigations, because we cannot know how the money was wasted if we do not conduct the forensic audit of our accounts...for in this lies a testimony of innocence for the innocent and condemnation for the corrupt."

 

Dialogue needed over issue of Lebanon’s ‘neutrality’ in region, says PM Diab
Retuers/Saturday 18 July 2020
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Saturday dialogue was needed over the country’s stance on regional conflicts, after meeting with a top Christian cleric who has urged Lebanon to remain neutral to help it out of its crisis.
The country is in the grip of a financial meltdown, raising concerns for its stability, and is badly in need of foreign aid. Hopes of salvation through an IMF deal have retreated with the government hamstrung by the conflicting agendas of sectarian leaders. Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai has made several comments this month that were widely interpreted as criticism of both the Shi’ite Hezbollah movement and its ally President Michel Aoun, both backers of Diab’s cabinet. “The issue of neutrality is a political one ... and it needs deep dialogue between all the political sides in Lebanon,” Diab said after meeting with Rai on Saturday. In an interview published earlier this week, Rai blamed Hezbollah for closing off a vital source of aid from Western and Gulf Arab states. Hezbollah’s opponents say its alliance with Iran, in the power struggle with Saudi Arabia, pushes away the mainly Sunni Gulf Arab states that once helped Lebanon.“We are fundamentally a neutral country...and in the end, our salvation is in our neutrality,” Rai told local broadcaster LBC later on Saturday.


Diab from Dimane: I Will Not Step Down, Neutrality Needs Deep Discussion

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 18/2020
lks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi that he does not plan to step down from office because it would leave the country in limbo until a new government is formed. “I will not resign from office because there is no easy alternative and because it is a crime to put the country on hold while the government shifts to a caretaker capacity,” he told reporters after meeting Rahi. Diab arrived at Dimane on board a military helicopter accompanied by Minister of Environment and Administrative Development Damianos Khattar, said the National News Agency. The visit comes after the Patriarch’s calls to neutralize Lebanon from regional conflicts which raised controversy among political forces. “Neutrality is a perfectly political issue and needs deep discussions between all political components,” said Diab. The two men discussed the social and economic situation in light of a worsening economic and monetary crisis pushing many Lebanese into poverty. On accusations that Diab’s government is controlled by Hizbullah, he said: “The claims that this is Hizbullah’s government is a "broken record.”

Report: Financial Adviser Lazard to Visit Beirut Next Week

Naharnet/July 18/2020
A delegation from the financial firm Lazard is expected to visit Beirut next week as negotiations with the IMF stall, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday.
According to finance ministry sources, the delegation will discuss the “economic and financial” developments that have taken place over the last five months in the crisis-hit country, and what could be drawn from suggestions to improve the government recovery plan. Lebanon approved in February the US investment bank Lazard to be its financial adviser on debt restructuring. According to reports, the adviser "Lazard will see if the government financial bailout plan can be modified to reach a meaningful settlement for the International Monetary Fund, after the plan was rejected by politicians, banks and the Central Bank of Lebanon."

Report: IMF Director Says Lebanon in 'Very Difficult' Economic Situation
Naharnet/July 18/2020
The International Monetary Fund director Kristalina Georgieva said that Lebanon is facing a very difficult economic situation and is in dire need of tough reforms to steer out of its crisis, media reports reported on Saturday. “Lebanon is in a very difficult economic situation and needs to undertake difficult reforms to overcome its crisis,” said Georgieva in remarks to al-Jazeera on Friday. She appealed to the Lebanese to “work on the unity of purpose,” and "to take measures to re-balance the economy and continue our engagement with the Lebanese government," noting that the IMF "has not reached an agreement yet." She pointed out, that IMF "negotiations with Lebanon have not made any progress yet, but we are committed to it.”

Bukhari Recalls Beshara Khoury to Emphasize Arabism of Lebanon

Naharnet/July 18/2020
The Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Saturday quoted the memoirs of former Lebanese President Beshara el-Khoury to stress the importance of Lebanon's return to its Arabism and improving its relationship with the Arab countries.
“President Beshara el-Khoury recorded his understanding of an independent Lebanon in his memoirs by saying: ... We pushed away accusations of solitude and isolation, and looked at the Arabs with whom language, customs, and eastern morals connect us... therefore the Lebanese became one person, a Lebanese nationalist, and an independent Arab,” said Bukhari in a tweet. Bukhari’s remark comes after the calls of Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi to neutralize Lebanon from regional conflicts, which raised controversy among political forces. General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim had visited Bukhari this week after the latter’s return from a visit to Kuwait and Qatar to get assistance for Lebanon’s economic crisis. Ibrahim assured brotherly relations with Saudi Arabia.


Alleged Hezbollah associate extradited to US from Cyprus for money laundering
Joseph Haboush & Pierre Ghanem, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 18 July 2020
A Lebanese man alleged to be associated with Hezbollah and its money-laundering operations has been extradited to the United States from Cyprus, the US Justice Department announced Saturday. Ghassan Diab, a 37-year-old, landed in Miami, Florida, on Friday after Cyprus agreed to extradite him after the Cypriot Supreme Court’s order in May. Diab is accused of having ties to “the laundering of drug proceeds through the use of the black market peso exchange in support of Hezbollah’s global criminal-support network,” according to the Justice Department. He was initially arrested in March 2019 after landing in Cyprus, and upon an international arrest warrant. Diab was charged in Florida with two counts of money laundering over $100,000, two counts of conspiracy to launder over $100,000, two counts of unlicensed transmission of currency over $100,000, and two counts of unlawful use of a two-way communications device to further the commission of money laundering. The Justice Department said that the “charges contained in the indictment are merely accusations, and the defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.”In 2016, the Lebanese national was identified as an alleged Hezbollah associate. He was charged as part of a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) program that was cracking down on money laundering. The US and Cyprus signed an extradition treaty in 2006. “Thanks to the efforts of our law enforcement partners in Cyprus, Ghassan Diab … will now be held accountable in the United States for their alleged crimes,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Brian Rabbitt of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division. Washington released Kassim Tajideen, a Lebanese financier of Hezbollah, earlier this month and deported him back to Beirut, despite government opposition to a judicial order granting an emergency request for compassionate release. Tajideen was arrested in Morocco in 2017 and extradited to the US. In 2019, he was sentenced to five years in prison after pleading guilty to charges related to evading sanctions against him.
 

US Ambassador Visits UNIFIL HQ in Lebanon
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
US Ambassador Dorothy Shea visited on Friday UNIFIL’s headquarters in south Lebanon. Her visit came amid controversy on the renewal of the peacekeepers’ mandate, after US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres proposed changes to their mandate. “The US Ambassador conducted an orientation trip to UNIFIL to help her better understand the issues and complexities of the UNIFIL mission at the Blue Line and the role of UNIFIL,” the US embassy said in a statement. UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Stefano Del Col said it was an honor to host Shea and to join her during a tour of the Blue Line. “It was also an opportunity to brief & show her the crucial work of our peacekeepers together with the Lebanese Army in furthering peace in South Lebanon,” he wrote on his Twitter account. David Schenker, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, has said that Washington’s vote on the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate depends on the expansion of its scope of operation, recalling the evolving military activities of Hezbollah south of the Litani River.
He said there are 16 natural reserves in south Lebanon that Hezbollah uses as military positions. This week, western diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has repeatedly called for expanding UNIFIL’s powers and promoting its role in the South.

Shiite Clerics Reject Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality, Qabalan Calls it 'Treason'
Beirut - Nazir Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros al-Rai urged the Lebanese top authorities to affirm Lebanon’s neutrality “for the sake of the country and the best of all its components.” “The Lebanese do not want any party to unilaterally decide the fate of Lebanon, along with its people, territory, border, identity, coexistence formula, system, economy, culture and civilization,” Rai said during last Sunday Mass’ sermon. “I issued the appeal… to the international community to declare Lebanon’s neutrality for the sake of its own good and the good of all its components,” he added. However, a number of Shiite clerics voiced their rejection to calls for Lebanon’s neutrality and dissociation from regional conflicts. While attention turns to the sermon of al-Rai this Sunday, ministerial sources close to President Michel Aoun position said that the latter considers that Lebanon’s neutral stance required a national consensus.
Such issues constitute contentious materials and necessitate dialogue and national consensus, the sources said, voicing Aoun’s position. While Lebanese political parties, such as the Lebanese Forces, Al-Mustaqbal Movement and the Kataeb, have expressed full support to the stances of the Maronite patriarch, Hezbollah and Amal Movement are avoiding to comment on the matter. Shiite parliamentary sources, however, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “There is no neutrality in the conflict with Israel… and there is no discussion over it.” Shiite clerics, from various religious institutions, have expressed rejection of neutrality in the existing political discourse. The deputy head of the Supreme Shiite Islamic Council, Sheikh Ali Al-Khatib, said on Thursday: “The talk about a neutral position of the oppressed towards the oppressor does not make sense, even if it was made by good faith, as it comes at a time of increasing pressure on Lebanon.”
Jaafari Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan said that neutrality “in this battle is forbidden and considered as treason.”“There is no neutrality in the war for the homeland; no neutrality in the interests of the country, no neutrality in the battle of truth, no neutrality in the battle of independence and sovereignty… nor in the face of the financial blockade… the crocodiles of the internal and external monetary financial game,” he said.

Lebanese block roads in protests against long power cuts
The Arab Weekly/July 18/2020
BEIRUT- Angry Lebanese took to the streets of Beirut and across the country on Thursday to protest widespread electricity cuts caused by a shortage of fuel used to operate power plants. Lebanese protesters blocked roads to the west of the capital, Beirut, in protest of the near-complete lack of electricity or functional generators in the area. Protesters also lit trash bins on fire on the road to the airport in western Beirut, while central areas of the capital saw increased security presence. In the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, protesters also blocked numerous roads. Just as in mass demonstrations that broke out in October 2019, Lebanese protesters are blaming the political class for the hardship, which adds to a long list of the country’s crises. Protesters said politicians have led the country into the worst economic turmoil since Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war, with cost of living spiraling, food prices soaring, unemployment at unprecedented levels and the Lebanese pound collapsing. They blame the entire ruling elite for years of corruption, incompetence and mismanagement. Protester Muhammad al-Ali asked: “Where is the state? Where is the government? We are in the summer and the electricity is completely cut. The situation is unbearable.”Another protester, Abaas Ghaleb, said: “We endured poverty, hunger, and the absence of jobs, but to bear waste in the streets and the absence of electricity is unacceptable.”In West Bekaa, dozens of citizens gathered in front of the electricity company’s local office to protest the long power cuts and severe rationing. The gathering was attended by municipality heads, religious leaders and other prominent figures from the region, according to NNA. Speaking on behalf of citizens, Sheikh Abbas Dibeh, an imam from the town of Mashghara, said: “It is not permissible to reward us, the people of this region of Lebanon, by depriving us of electric power, especially that we have borne the consequences of the Litani project that has cut off areas of our land…and also suffered the Israeli occupation and made great sacrifices!,” NNA reported. Sheikh Abbas pointed to escalation steps that could be taken if the problem continues. Sheikh Fadi Nassif, an imam from the town Qaraoun, condemned “the measures that render people’s lives more difficult and add to their harsh daily living conditions.”Power cuts, especially in the hot summer months, have become a daily routine for Lebanese. In some areas, the power can stay off for up to 12 hours a day. The shortage has furthered people’s anger as they struggle to deal with a severe economic crisis worsened by the coronavirus pandemic. Successive Lebanese governments have failed to build power stations to solve the country’s electricity problem. On July 1, Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar said there was a lack of fuel because supply companies’ “shipments do not meet the specifications,” according to the Lebanese News Agency (NNA). Many Lebanese think corruption is the main cause of the problem. “Lebanon’s worsening economic crisis which culminated with the tiny nation defaulting on its debt this year is making it increasingly difficult to attract investors to the country’s ailing electricity sector, which has been a huge drain on state coffers for decades,” Ghajar said.


Bisri Valley national campaign members stage a sitin to protest against the dam construction
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
The "National Campaign to Preserve Marj Bisri" organized, at noon today, a wide sit-in at the Bisri archaeological bridge, amidst the presence of Army units and Internal Security Forces from the regions of Jezzine and Iqlim Al-Kharoub, to protest against the dam construction.
In this framework, protesters stood to prevent the project's contractor from brining the needed machinery on-site, following the government's decision to proceed with the Bisri Dam construction by force, and after Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar announced that security support has been ensured for the contractor to begin construction works. Demonstrators raised banners denouncing the project and called for thwarting it, while loudspeakers echoed national and revolutionary chants in the background. A crowd of activists, campaign members, political parties, civil society organizations, revolutionaries, mayors and dignitaries from the region took part in the sit-in. The delivered words centered on the project's harmful repercussions, urging the President of the Republic and concerned officials to suspend this "crime project" in order to protect the environment and the people.
Afterwards, protesters marched towards the "Saint Moussa Church" located at the Bisri Dam site, which would eventually be flooded with waters of the dam in wake of its construction.

Ghajar to Radio Lebanon: Power supply to improve starting Wednesday
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
Energy and Water Minister, Raymond Ghajar, assured on Saturday that the electricity supply will start to improve as of upcoming Wednesday. Speaking in an interview with "Radio Lebanon" this morning, Ghajar explained that "the issue of electricity and fuel is very complex, and challenges are increasing during this period due to several accumulated problems." He revealed that new mechanisms will be adopted with regards to delivering of diesel, adding that "with electricity returning to normal, the demand for diesel will decrease.""Great efforts were exerted to improve the electricity situation, and we were forced at the Ministry to set special mechanisms to get out of the crisis," Ghajar went on. "We are forced to inform Sonatrach of the quantity and quality of fuel that we need, in addition to the date of its arrival. Every ship needs 20 days to arrive, which led to the electricity crisis, because they refused to hand us the old orders, and therefore our reserve began to shrink in all plants, whereby we had to supply them with diesel from the installations so that they are not completely turned off," the Minister explained. "All plants will begin to operate as of Wednesday and improvement will be tangible...The Zouk and Jiyyeh plants will start to operate on Monday, followed by Deir Ammar and Zahrani on Wednesday, along with the water plants," he added. The Minister pointed out that "the demand is high and our total capacity reaches 1500 - 1700 megawatts, while it did not exceed 500 megawatts in the midst of the crisis...However, the demand on diesel for supplying generators will diminish and return to normal." Ghajar indicated herein that the credits' issue faced with foreign banks is beyond the Energy Ministry's control.

Makhzoumi after meeting Bukhari: Lebanon must stay away from axes policies
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
National Dialogue Party Chief, MP Fouad Makhzoumi, visited Saturday Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Al-Bukhari. On emerging, Makhzoumi reiterated his gratitude to the Saudi Kingdom for "its constant and keen concern for the stability and security of Lebanon," stressing that "the Kingdom of goodness has always stood by the Lebanese people in various circumstances, and will continue to do so." In this context, Makhzoumi called for "preserving the strong historical relationship that binds Lebanon to Saudi Arabia, which has hosted thousands of Lebanese on its soil for years.""Lebanon has always been and will remain a symbol of openness, communication and coexistence, and it must remain far from the policies of axes and crises of the region," the MP emphasized. "Our country needs all support, whether from the Arab brethrens or from friends in the Islamic and Western worlds," he underlined.
 

Armenian Deputies Bloc visits Mufti of Tripoli: Dar El Fatwa has a national role in establishing tranquility
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
The Armenian Deputies Bloc indicated, in an issued statement on Saturday, that its members visited today the Grand Mufti of Tripoli and the North, Sheikh Mohammad Imam, in his office at the Dar El Fatwa in Tripoli, to "congratulate him on his new position, and to deliberate on joint national, social and northern affairs and ways of cooperation in the interest of the homeland and citizens."The Bloc members emphasized "the national role of the Dar El Fatwa in establishing a sense of reassurance and tranquility among all components of the North region in general, and Tripoli in particular, in light of the difficult circumstances the country is passing through," stressing on social solidarity and collaboration in overcoming the challenges. The statement indicated that "the Bloc members were accompanied during their visit by Youth and Sports Minister Varty Ohanyan, and headed by the Secretary-General of the Tashnag Party Hagop Pakradounian, with the participation of MPs Hagop Terzian and Alexander Matossian, the Party's North branch official Avanshi Harmandayan and a number of Tashnag officials, in the presence of the Tripoli Endowments Department Head, Sheikh Abdel-Razzaq Islambouli."

Road blocks in Tyre to protest power outage
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
Protesters blocked a number of internal roads in the city of Tyre this evening, especially Abu Deeb roundabout using vehicles and motorcycles, in protest against the power cuts and severe rationing by generator owners, NNA correspondent reported.
A number of protesters indicated that "the harsh rationing that the city has been witnessing for more than three weeks, leads to water scarcity and internet cuts, in addition to its negative impact on shop owners, institutions and residents in general."

Hoballah responds to the question: Who is responsible for our current situation?
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
Industry Minister, Imad Hoballah, tweeted Saturday in response to the question of who shoulders responsibility for the current situation in the country, saying: "My answer is: the people of the corruption system who claim chastity, the countries of prevention or those refusing to support Lebanon, anyone obstructing the work of the government, everyone delaying or slowing down reforms, and every Lebanese who fails to hold the actual officials accountable - states, individuals, and groups - while making charges and accusations in other directions."

Bukhari quotes President Beshara Khoury
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
"President Beshara El-Khoury recorded his understanding of the independent Lebanon equation in his memoirs by saying: We have distanced ourselves from the charge of isolation, and we turned to the Arabs, with whom we share the Eastern language, customs and morals...so the Lebanese became one person, a national, independent Arab Lebanese," Saudi Kingdom Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid al-Bukhari, said Saturday, via his Twitter account.

Najm: We urge the inspection committee to activate judicial work
NNA/Saturday 18 July 2020
Justice Minister, Marie Claude Najm, indicated on Saturday, during an interview that she "received from the Administration and Justice House Committee more than a report, submitted by a number of deputies, including MP Hassan Fadlallah."Najm added that "these reports are related to topics of corruption and waste of public money."The Minister also called on the Inspection Committee to activate its role, especially after the government recently appointed three judicial inspectors away from sectarian and political quotas.
 

Lebanon likely to have another fire season amid major economic crisis: Experts
Abby Sewell, video by: David Enders & Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya English/Friday 17 July 2020
In the hills of Mechref, in Lebanon’s forested Chouf district, hillsides full of charred pine trees bear witness to the damaging fires that swept the country last October. Under some blackened trunks, tiny saplings have sprouted amid the shrubs, ready to replace them. Other areas remain largely barren.
The government’s inability to deal effectively with the fires that swept through Lebanon in 2019 was one of the triggers for the mass protests that broke out on October 17, sparking a movement that continues today.
Now, as Lebanon heads into another fire season in the midst of a major economic crisis, some fear that the country is again unprepared. The country has faced increasingly intense fire seasons in recent years and is likely to face another one this year, experts said.
“Lebanon is not prepared to deal with large-scale fires,” George Mitri, director of the Land and Natural Resources Program at the University of Balamand, told Al Arabiya English. “We are very well prepared to deal with small fires – small numbers of fires and fires at a small scale – but when we are dealing with large scale fires, this is where we don’t have the capacities, either the technical capacities or the human resources [needed],” Mitri explained. Last year’s fires burned around 2,700 hectares of land, nearly double the country’s annual average of around 1,000 hectares lost to fires, he added.
Civil Defense volunteer Ryan Bachaalany, who joined in fighting the fires in Mechref last year, recalled the scenes of devastation.
“It was like the movies – I’ve never been in a fire this big,” he told Al Arabiya English. “It was really big and uncontrollable, so people started leaving their homes, running. You couldn’t see anything. It was like an inferno – it really was.” He added, “The most difficult part was that you knew that you couldn’t do anything … We couldn’t control it, but we did our best. We tried for two days, and luckily on the third day it rained, so we could control it.” While last year’s blazes may have been an outlier, Mitri said that with increasingly extreme weather patterns, experts have been warning of increased fire risk in Lebanon since 2007. Balamand has developed a fire danger forecast tool and posts a daily fire risk assessment, with a map showing the areas most at risk. Although Lebanon’s Cabinet adopted a national strategy for forest fire management in 2009, Mitri said, “until present and unfortunately, the strategy has never been implemented.”So far, Mitri said, the number of fires and area burned this year has been similar to last year, which, along with a wet winter and summer heat waves, suggest there is high risk of a similarly dangerous fire season. Meanwhile, he added that due to the economic crisis, there has been an exodus from the city to rural areas, meaning there is more human activity and therefore more fire risk in forested areas.
Georges Abou Moussa, head of operations for the Lebanese Civil Defense, said he anticipates that the season will be “the same and maybe worse” compared to last year. While the fire season has already started – a large fire broke out in the bushland around Hermel last month – Abou Moussa said the worst months are typically between mid-September and mid-November. As to whether the Civil Defense is prepared for another season on par with last year, Abou Mousa said, “We are ready 24-7 for everything,” but he added that the force does not have the equipment and dedicated manpower it needs.
“We need trucks for the forest fires, first of all,” he said. “We have (trucks), but it’s not enough because we have not more than eight, nine vehicles. From the north to the south, it’s not enough.” And while there are between 2,000 and 3,000 civil defense volunteers throughout the country at any given time, Abou Moussa said the operations also suffer from the lack of a professional force of emergency responders. According to Abou Moussa, the volunteers “are very ready, they are very professional, they work but sometimes they have their own job and, you know, now the economic situation in Lebanon – this means they need to work to take a salary. Here in the Civil Defense we don’t give them any salary… A professional staff means that you can count on them.”
During the 2019 fires, many Lebanese were infuriated to learn that three Sikorsky helicopters that had been donated to the government in 2009 for firefighting, after a fundraising effort by a group of private citizens, were out of commission as the government had not been paying to maintain them.
Last month, the Minister of Defense announced that the helicopters had been put up for sale. A spokesman for the Lebanese Army said the Army has eight or nine water tanks of 1.2 cubic meters each that can be used by its own helicopter fleet to fight fires. However, the Army fleet was not enough to deal with last year’s wildfires on its own. Cyprus and Jordan sent in aircraft to aid in the firefighting. Former Minister of the Interior Ziyad Baroud called the decision to sell the helicopters “very sad and disappointing.” Baroud noted that citizens had donated about $14 million for the helicopters. Along with the helicopters, the government got three years of free maintenance and pilot training, he said. After the free maintenance stopped, Baroud said that national airline Middle East Airlines had contributed towards the upkeep one year, but that by 2016, all three had stopped flying due lack of maintenance. “The reason? The cost?” he said. “Whatever the cost, it is definitely less than that of the smallest fire.” Mitri said the fire response will be particularly important this year to protect areas that are just beginning to recover from last year’s blazes. Pointing to a cluster of delicate green seedlings under one burnt tree in Mechref, he said, “We need to avoid any future fire event on this site because if these small seedlings burn, then we don’t have any more the seed bank and we can lose the forest permanently.”


The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 18-19/2020

In Baghdad, Iran’s Zarif seeks to sway Kadhimi before first foreign tour
The Arab Weekly/July 18/2020
Iran seems much more eager than Saudi Arabia or the United States to receive Kadhimi visit.
BAGHDAD – Before Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi embarks next week on a crucial foreign tour, Tehran has dispatched its Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif to Baghdad.
Iran is seen as trying to win over Kadhimi with soft diplomacy as he prepares to leave for Tehran, Riyadh, and Washington. According to experts, it wants to know how the Iraqi prime minister intends to curb the encroachment of Iranian-backed militias in Iraqi politics, and how Kadhimi wants to build balanced relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Political sources in Baghdad say that Zarif’s visit is particularly concerned with setting a date for Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran, which the Iranian regime wants it to take place before his visit to Saudi Arabia. Baghdad has not yet formally announced Kadhimi’s intention to conduct official visits abroad, and no information has been provided on the time of these visits amid strong expectations that the Iraqi official will start his foreign tour with Riyadh first. Iranian news agency IRNA, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had to retract information it had broadcast earlier, saying that Kadhimi will be visiting Tehran before Riyadh. Iran is counting heavily on Kadhimi’s expected visit to Tehran next week to boost its chances for preferential treatment on the economic front, at a moment of very complex and intense international competition, even though the economic relationship between the two countries is heavily slanted in favour of Iran at present. Kadhimi is about to embark on a visit to two geo-strategically-distant capitals, Riyadh and Tehran, within the same week, before heading to Washington. Observers say that the Iraqi prime minister must display great political acumen in order to reap substantial benefits from these marathon and contradictory visits.Looking at the schedule of Kadhimi’s first foreign tour since taking office reveals the intensity of international competition to win over Iraq at this stage. It also highlights the current Iraqi perception of its most important capitals in the region and the world. Kadhimi could not think of visiting Saudi Arabia without visiting Iran or vice versa, while the United States seems set to play the role of the cornerstone of Iraqi foreign policy. This is why Baghdad has chosen to combine them in the same tour within days of each other. But, Iran seems much more eager than Saudi Arabia or the United States to receive Kadhimi, and perhaps even more than Iraq itself. This Iranian eagerness is reflective of the scale of the challenge that Tehran faces as it notes that the new Iraqi prime minister is looking west, unlike most of his predecessors who used to underline their comfort with Iraq’s eastern neighbour, sometimes even excessively as did Nuri al-Maliki, for example, or to the point of total surrender, as done by Adel Abdul-Mahdi. Iranian diplomat Emir Mousavi seemed ecstatic talking about Kadhimi’s visit to Iran next week, stressing that it represents “an important development in bilateral relations,” and revealing that “economic and security cooperation will be among the priority items” on the agenda of Kadhimi’s visit.
Observers believe that Iran no longer has anything to offer the Iraqi government, after it decided to look at Iraq from the point of view of a group of armed militias whose leaders want to consolidate the concept of no-state. Iran acknowledges the fact that trade with Iraq has been at its lowest levels recently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tehran fears that Iraq will turn to alternative trading partners in the region, which would also deal a massive blow to its political influence in Iraq. Iraqi politicians say they have recently heard from their Iranian counterparts that “a strong, unified Iraq led by Kadhimi is better for Iran than an Iraq divided and dispersed.” It is not clear at this moment whether such sentiments reflect the feeling of the hard-line Iranian leadership that controls Tehran’s decisions, or are merely an instance of the reform voices that come on from time to time, without having the slightest impact.
Commenting on Kadhimi’s upcoming foreign tour, former Tehran ambassador to Baghdad Hassan Danae Far said that “Kadhimi is working to find a balance in Iraq’s relations with Iran because both countries are neighbours, while Iran is also interested in strengthening its relations with Iraq in various fields and is working to diversify them, and we hope that these strong relations will continue to grow to reach the levels aspired to by both countries.”Soft diplomatic language aside, it does not look like Iran intends to ease the pressure on Kadhimi in the matter of Iraq’s military relations with the United States.
This is confirmed by a recent statement issued by the Iraqi Al-Nujaba militia, a faction affiliated to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, regarding a “unified decision by the resistance forces (the militias of Iran) to confront American forces” in Iraq. “The American forces in Iraq are occupation forces and their targeting by the resistance will escalate day by day,” said Nasr al-Shammari, deputy of Akram al-Kaabi, leader of al-Nujaba militia. He stressed that “the resistance is devising appropriate methods” to force the American forces out of Iraq, in reference to a recent series of attacks on the American Embassy in Baghdad and on Iraqi military bases where US troops are stationed. “The resistance operations are secret and there is a unified decision by the resistance forces to confront the American forces,” al-Shammari added. Al-Shammari believes that neither the Kadhimi government nor any other party “can prevent the resistance from targeting the Americans,” warning that “the Americans want to place their forces in areas where they believe the resistance will not be able to reach them,” in reference to the option available to the United States to transfer its military forces to Kurdish and Sunni areas inside Iraq. Al-Shammari made these comments in the context of talking about the ongoing dialogue between Iraq and the United States to enhance relations between the two countries. His statements reinforce the prevailing perception among observers that Iran expresses its policy towards Iraq through its proxy militias that see themselves above the state, the government and the law, which kind of deflates all other official attempts to communicate between the two countries, including Kadhimi’s upcoming visit to Tehran.


Iraqi PM to Visit Saudi, Iran in Diplomatic Balancing Act
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 18/2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi will travel to Saudi Arabia and Iran back-to-back next week, carefully balancing ties to regional rivals in his first foreign trip as premier, officials said Saturday. Baghdad has often found itself caught in the tug-of-war between Riyadh, Tehran and even Washington, which the premier is also set to visit within the next few weeks. On Sunday, Kadhemi will host Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Baghdad, before travelling with Iraq's ministers of oil, electricity, planning and finance to Saudi Arabia the following day, Iraqi officials said. They are set to stay in NEOM, an area in the kingdom's northwest that is currently under development, and are scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with whom Kadhemi is known to have warm personal ties. Baghdad proposed a package of energy-focused development opportunities in Iraq to Saudi Arabia earlier this month, and the talks will likely focus on financing for those proposals, other infrastructure projects, and a reopening of the Arar border crossing between the two countries, the officials said. They said the delegation will then travel directly to Tehran late Tuesday, where Kadhemi is expected to meet Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Kadhemi rose to the premiership in May after serving as the head of Iraq's National Intelligence Service for nearly four years, which helped him form a close relationship with Prince Mohammed. He is also known to be respected by Iran's intelligence services and government circles, which prompted speculation he could mediate between the two regional foes.  And Kadhemi is well-liked in Washington, where he is expected later this month or in early August to pursue a strategic dialogue between Iraq and the US. It would be the first visit by an Iraqi premier to the White House in three years. US officials never extended an invitation to previous prime minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, whom they saw as too close to Iran. Tensions skyrocketed following a US drone strike on Baghdad in January that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. It appears Washington is now encouraging a rapprochement between Baghdad and Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. Earlier this week, officials from Iraq, the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council discussed over teleconference an arrangement for Iraq to import electricity from Kuwait, a deal which was agreed last year but has yet to come into effect.

France Vows to Support Iraq’s Kurdistan Region
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Kurdistan region President Nechirvan Barzani received Friday French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Erbil to discuss the relations between the region and Paris. Speaking at a joint press conference, Barzani said the Kurdistan region will not forget France's support, reported the Rudaw news agency. He described Le Drian’s visit as “important”, saying the minister has always been a friend and helped develop relations between Iraq and Kurdistan. France was a great partner in fighting terrorism alongside the anti-ISIS coalition, noted Barzani, stressing that: “We still need France’s support and the coalition to fight against ISIS.”Barzani announced Kurdistan’s “readiness” to host French companies willing to invest in various sectors. In turn, Le Drian said his country supports and stands by the Kurdistan region, and will provide medical supplies within days, including “help and financial support for a Halabja hospital.”
He noted that Paris has implemented many projects in Kurdistan for refugees and displaced people, and will continue to do so, announcing that “France will provide $15 million for Duhok water system projects,” with assistance from Germany. In a meeting with Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Friday, Le Drian delivered an official invitation from Macron to visit France. They discussed recent developments in Iraq and the region, as well as means to enhance historical relations between Kurdistan and France. Le Drian expressed his country’s readiness to support the region with experts, especially in the agricultural field in order to overcome the current economic crisis. During the meeting, Masrour Barzani said France and the international community could play a “positive role” in bringing the Kurdish and the Iraqi federal governments closer in resolving issues based on Iraq’s 2005 constitution.
“We have not asked for anything that contradicts Iraq’s constitution,” he said, explaining that the Kurdistan region “would reject anything that is less than our constitutional rights.”Le Drian had landed in Baghdad on Thursday where he met with several Iraqi officials, including President Barham Salih, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. During a press conference with his Iraqi counterpart, he stressed that his country will continue to support Iraqi security forces against ISIS. “We will not compromise against the enemy,” Le Drian added. He confirmed that Iraq's sovereignty is important, saying his country is looking forward to seeing Baghdad “restore its pioneering role to create balance for the Middle East.” France is part of the US-led international coalition, which provides support and training to Iraqi forces to pursue ISIS. France has about 200 military personnel, including 160 who are training the Iraqi army.

Explosions Target Iranian, Russian Positions in East Syria
Damascus - London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Warplanes suspected to be from the US-led coalition targeted Iranian positions in northeast Syria, an opposition official said Friday. The official from the Deir Ezzor Military Council told the German news agency that warplanes believed to be from the coalition launched five airstrikes on a number of Iranian positions and their affiliated militias west of the city of Bukamal and near the town of Salihiyah, east of Mayadeen, in the countryside of eastern Deir Ezzor.
“The explosions were so loud that they could be heard at a distance of more than 30 kilometers. Pro-Syrian government vehicles were seen heading there amid panic among residents,” the source said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said there was “uncertainty regarding the nature of the violent explosions.”On July 12, Observatory sources said new military and logistical reinforcements from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces entered the Iranian-held areas in Bukamal in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. The reinforcements included military personnel, vehicles, and logistical supplies. The monitor said dozens of regime-backed militiamen defected from the “National Defense Forces” (NDF) and joined an Iranian-backed militia. “Around 43 militiamen of the relatives of (Akram Ahmed Al-Akram Al-Khudur), the commander of an Iranian-backed tribal militia dubbed “Al-Sheikh Akram Brigade”, defected from NDF and joined Al-Akram’s militia, after beingoffered financial incentives and additional powers by the militia’s commander,” it wrote. Iranian-sponsored militias in Deir Ezzor have been regularly targeted by the US-led coalition and Israel. Meanwhile, a Kurdish news agency said Thursday that Russian soldiers have reportedly been injured in a Turkish drone strike near a Kurdish-controlled town in northeastern Syria. The news agency said three Russian troops and three soldiers from the Assad regime were injured when a drone struck a Russian military position near the town of Derbassiyeh. It published a video of injured soldiers in Russian military fatigue being evacuated for medical treatment after the strike.

Turkish Army, Regime Forces Exchange Fire in Idlib Countryside
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Britain’s defense secretary stressed the “game-changing” role of Turkish drones in modern warfare in the Middle East and North Africa amid escalatory tension and an exchange of fire between Turkish forces and the Syrian regime army in east Idlib. During a virtual gathering of the Air and Space Power Conference, Ben Wallace spoke about Turkey’s counter terrorism operations in northern Syria, underlining the success of lightly armed drones used there. “Consider Turkey’s involvement in Syria and its use of electronic warfare, lightly armed drones, and smart ammunition to stop tanks, armored cars, and air defense systems in their tracks,” he said. Wallace revealed that according to reports, the Assad regime suffered heavy losses. “3,000 soldiers, 151 tanks, eight helicopters, three drones, three fighter jets vehicles and trucks, eight aerial defense systems and one headquarters among other military equipment and facilities.” Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) released on bail a British aid worker it arrested last month in Syria's opposition-held Idlib province. Tauqir Sharif, 33, originally from London, was detained by HTS security forces on June 22 near the camp of Atmeh, on the Turkish border. In a statement, the HTS said Sharif had appeared before the "public prosecution in the military court" and had been released on bail pending trial in 15 days. HTS's media relations manager Taqi al-Deen Omar said the group presented evidence it used to issue an arrest warrant against Sharif to the judiciary. “He was then referred to a military court for further investigation,” he said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sharif was held over his alleged ties with rival extremists. Meanwhile, Turkish forces shelled on Thursday Syrian regime positions in the village of Miznaz, west of Aleppo, responding to repeated violations in the “Putin-Erdogan” de-escalation area, as regime forces shelled the town of Maarat al-Naasan. On the other hand, regime forces targeted the frontlines of the town of Kansafra and the village of Al-Fatira in Idlib’s countryside. The Observatory quoted sources as saying that militant groups operating under the banner of “Al-Fateh Al-Mubin” operations room fired several rockets on regime positions in Maarat al-Numan, Hantotin and Khan al-Sabil in the southern countryside of Idlib.

SDF Launches 2nd Phase of 'Deterring Terrorism' Campaign
Hasaka, Washington - Kamal Sheikho, Moaz al-Omari/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced launching the second phase of its ''Deterring Terrorism" campaign to track down and pursue ISIS cells in northeastern Syria, along the Euphrates River basin and areas on the Iraqi border. The SDF Media Center issued a statement saying that the operation has kicked off in cooperation with the international coalition, adding that it targets several cities along the northern Euphrates River Basin in Deir Ezzor. The statement explained that the campaign involved the Special Anti-Terrorism Units (YAT), in coordination with the international coalition and air support forces, reiterating that it will continue until the goal set by the General Command is achieved. The spokeswoman of Deir Ezzor Military Council, Lilwa al-Abdullah, announced that the campaign was launched at the request of the tribes’ notables in the region, after meeting with the Commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, stressing that it aims to establish security and stability in the region. Recently, ISIS terrorist attacks increased and targeted civilians and posing a direct threat to their lives. Meanwhile, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Kenneth McKenzie, said that the threat of ISIS attacks is increasing in Syrian areas under the Russian and regime control. “The conditions that led to the rise of ISIS still obtain out there in the west, that's unfortunate, and I am worried about that,” he added. In an interview with Voice of America (VOA), McKenzie explained that there's always going to be some form of insurgency with these factors in this area. "We want to establish local systems that will be able to handle (the insurgency) so they won't need us to do it, except with very, little support,” he noted. Last week, McKenzie met with Abdi in Syria during his visit to the eastern Euphrates River Valley and informed him that they remain partners. “We have tasks that remain to be accomplished against ISIS up and down the Euphrates River Valley. … We also talked about SDF management of the IDP (internally displaced persons) and the prison population that's there.” McKenzie said that CENTCOM is not directly involved in the issue but highlighted some concerns. “We're concerned from a security perspective and we're concerned from a humanitarian perspective.”


Blow to Erdogan as US boots Turkey out of F-35 strike fighter program
Arab News/July 18/2020
ANKARA: The removal of Turkey from the US F-35 joint strike fighter program is a massive loss for its defense industry, analysts told Arab News on Saturday. The move had been widely expected since Turkey took delivery last year of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system. It was confirmed when Turkey’s name was removed from the F-35 program’s official website. Until this week Turkey was named as one of the nine principal contributors on the program’s official website, along with the US, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, Norway and the UK.
Can Kasapoglu, a defense analyst from the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said the exclusion was a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Many aerospace firms were involved in the project with lucrative technology know-how gains and co-production opportunities,” he told Arab News. “All these achievements were perfectly in league with Turkey’s defense modernization priorities.” Turkey’s industrial engagement in the F-35 program brought a significant economic boost, with 10 contributing companies supplying more than 900 parts worth about $12 billion. Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor on the F-35 program, and the US government must now find new suppliers for the parts manufactured by Turkish companies. The US argues that participation in the F-35 program is incompatible with operating a Russian defense system, because of the risk of a security data breach. Turkey has already tested its radar system in Ankara against some of its air force’s US-made F-16 fighter jets. However, activation of the $2.5 billion S-400 system, scheduled for April, has been delayed. A retired senior official from Turkey’s Foreign Ministry told Arab News the delay would continue for a lengthy period. “Under a deepening economic recession, Ankara will not risk US sanctions by making the Russian system operational,” the official said. “Turkey also hopes for credit opportunities from the US for overcoming its cash problems. It may force Ankara to think twice.”

Erdogan Slams as ‘Illegal’ Egypt’s Intervention in Libya
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Friday that his country will sign a new deal with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), while slamming as “illegal” Egypt’s meddling in the North African country.
He said Ankara will continue the responsibility it has undertaken in Libya and will not abandon the Libyan “brothers.” He said that relations between Turkey and Libya date back to over 500 years and “we will continue to assume our responsibilities in Libya.” He noted that Turkey had struck a military training deal with Libya and is in the process of drafting a new agreement with Tripoli, with the United Nations’ support. On Egypt’s recent stances on Libya, Erdogan denounced them as “illegal”, adding that its statements prove that it supports Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army. This shows that it is involved in an illegal process, he stated. He made his remarks days after Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi met in Cairo with Libyan tribal leaders and elders, who represent different Libyan regions. Sisi declared to them that Egypt will not stand idly by against any threat to it and Libya’s national security. The tribes had officially asked Sisi to intervene to resolve the Libyan crisis and exert efforts to achieve the country’s stability and security. They also urged him to repel any attack against Sirte amid reports that the GNA militias, backed by Ankara, were preparing an offensive to capture the coastal city. Last month, Sisi had declared Sirte and Jufra cities as “red lines” that should not be crossed, warning that Egypt was prepared to intervene in Libya in order to protect its national security.

France Says US Should Do More to Enforce Libya Arms Embargo
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
France’s foreign ministry on Friday rebuffed US assertions that a European Union naval mission to enforce a UN weapons embargo for Libya was biased and not serious, saying Washington should itself be doing more to stop the flow of weapons. David Schenker, assistant secretary for Near East Affairs at the US State Department, said on Thursday Europe should go beyond limiting arms-supply interdictions to Turkey by designating Russian military contractor Wagner Group and calling out Moscow and other countries over the issue. In response to Schenker’s comments, French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters: “We call on all our partners - starting with the United States - to step up their action, as the European Union is doing, to hinder recurrent violations of the arms embargo and to help relaunch a political process inclusive.” Turkey has intervened decisively in recent weeks in Libya, providing air support, weapons and allied fighters from Syria to help the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord repel a year-long assault by the east-based Libyan National Army, commanded by Khalifa Haftar. Turkey accuses France of supporting Haftar politically, having previously given him military assistance to fight extremist militants. France denies this, but relations between the two NATO allies have frayed with Paris repeatedly pointing the finger at Ankara over its role in Libya. “France is actively participating in this important operation in the context of increased foreign interference in the Libyan conflict, which we have condemned in the strongest terms,” Von der Muhll said.


How lethally effective is Iran’s air defense system?
DEBKAfile/July 18/2020
The intentions behind the high alert ordered for Iran’s air defenses – reported by US sources from “several” indications – are as opaque as the mystery behind the recent string of explosions at Iran’s key nuclear, military and missile sites.
International speculation has centered on Israel as being responsible for some of the attacks, although this is not confirmed. The only comment came from Defense Minister Benny Gantz on July 5. He said: “Not all the incidents in Iran have anything to do with us. … All their systems are complex; they have very high security constraints and I am not sure that they always know how to maintain them.”But if there are opposition groups on the ground in Iran carrying out attacks on key facilities there, it is not clear whether they are acting on directives or funding from external sources. None alone is capable supporting the sweeping effort involved in more than half a dozen strikes at the heart of Iran’s most secure infrastructure since late June.
One of the most critical attacks occurred on July 2, when a fire caused significant damage to the advanced centrifuge production building at the Natanz uranium enrichment center. It is calculated to have retarded Iran’s nuclear program by a year or more. Another blew up a missile production amenity and tunnel network near the Parchin military compound. The most recent was the setting of seven ships on fire at Iran’s southern port of Bushehr. No one has yet suggested that aerial attacks by hostile fighters, bombers or missiles were the cause of those incidents. Only possible sabotage from the ground or cyberattack has been mentioned. So what moved the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to put the country’s air defenses on high alert? DEBKAfile’s military and Middle East sources postulate a number of considerations:
Preparations for unleashing a retaliatory attack on Israel in the expectation of deadly counteraction, as some Arab media suggest. Some of the explosions may have been caused by stealth drones which no one has so far admitted. The air defense alert would act as deterrence.
Nervousness at not knowing where the attacks come from, who is responsible and when the next one is coming.
Anxiety lest the next surprise blow – if and when it comes – will endanger the Islamic regime.
So how effective is Iran’s air defense system?
In June 2019, the IRGC claimed to have shot down a large, slow-flying US Global Hawk drone over the Strait of Hormuz with a Khordad 3 missile, a version of the SAM Raad. The Khordad 15 is capable of detecting, intercepting, and destroying six targets simultaneously. The system is said able to detect fighter jets, cruise missiles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) from 150 km away and is able to track them within a range of 120km. Iran has 32 batteries of Russian-made S-300 ground-to-air missiles delivered since 2016 (in the face of Israel’s efforts to prevent the transaction). Iran’s aviation industry has also developed home-made versions of this system, including Bavar 373, SAM Tabas and SAM Raad, which are regularly showcased on military parades. They are seen as posing a serious threat. Their radar system is also believed to be highly effective.
The Sayyad-3 missile, used by the SAM system, has a range of 200 km. The system can also detect stealth targets from a distance of 85km. Missiles fired from the much older SA-15 are designed when they explode to pepper flying targets with shrapnel penetrating the fuselages of aircraft and drones.
The most advanced of all these systems are arrayed around Iran’s nuclear-related facilities. The European Aviation Safety Agency reacted to the Iranian alert without delay on Thursday, July 13, by warning passenger jets against flying through Iranian air space lest they are accidentally targeted by the country’s air defense systems. “The hazardous security situation, poor coordination between Iran’s civil aviation and military operations” were cited as high risk. The warning came shortly after Tehran admitted to mistakenly shooting down a Ukraine airliner in January killing all 176 passengers aboard The Iranian government explained that the “misalignment of an air defense unit’s radar system” was the key “human error” that led to the accidental downing of the airliner. At the time, Tehran’s air defenses had been on high alert following an Iranian attack on US troops in Iraq after the killing of top general Qasem Soleimani by a US drone. Following the Ukrainian disaster, the US is also concerned that Iran’s unreliability in the operation of its air defense systems means that the transition to a high state of alert could also pose a threat in itself.

 

Exiled Iranian group, targeted by 2018 bomb plot, gathers online
The Arab Weekly/July 18/2020
PARIS--With prominent supporters from Europe and the United States, an exiled Iranian opposition group on Friday held its annual conference online to press for “uprising” and regime change in Tehran two years after another rally was targeted by a bomb plot. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which is outlawed by Iran, held a physical meeting of just a few dozen at its base in Albania, but said thousands more joined in online. A previous meeting of the same group was the target of a terror bomb plot. A Belgian court on Wednesday ordered four suspects including an Iranian diplomat to face trial later this year on charges of taking part in a plot to bomb an NCRI rally near Paris. In July 2018, Belgian anti-terror prosecutors foiled an attempt to bomb meeting of the National Council of Resistance of Iran outside the French capital. This time, the event took place at its base of “Ashraf 3” in Albania was addressed by the NCRI’s France-based leader Maryam Rajavi who stood in front of conference delegates but also a bank of hundreds of screens as guests dialed in from outside. “Our first commitment is that we, the Iranian people and the Resistance, will overthrow the clerical regime and will reclaim Iran,” she said.
“The final word is that the mullahs have no solutions and their regime is doomed to fall in its entirety,” she said. Rajavi pointed in this regard to recent demonstrations against repressive policies, including death sentences pronounced against protesters, and socio-economic woes. Protests have taken place in recent days in the Iranian citie s of Behbahan and Shiraz. Echoing Rajavi’s message were foreign speakers who included British MP Matthew Offord, French MP Philippe Gosselin and former Polish foreign minister Anna Fotyga.
“On the brink”
But the star attraction was US President Donald Trump’s lawyer and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani who had repeatedly appeared at NCRI events. “This regime is on the brink right now,” he declared via Zoom, pointing to Iran’s handling of the coronavirus crisis. “Regime change in Iran is within reach. Don’t listen to the pessimists,” he said. The NCRI is regarded as the political wing of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK), known in English as the People’s Mujahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI). The MEK backed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the 1979 revolution that ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi but rapidly fell out with the new Islamic authorities and embarked on a campaign to overthrow the regime. The MEK then sided with Iraq under Saddam Hussein in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. Thousands of its alleged members were executed in a ruthless crackdown in the late 1980s and since then its campaign against the Islamic Republic has been waged from exile. Its fighters based in Iraq had by 2016 relocated elsewhere in an accord with the US and UN, notably to Albania. The group’s Western supporters, many of whom are neoconservatives and have considerable clout in Washington, see it as a viable force for change. Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton, who was sacked earlier this year, is a prominent supporter of the NCRI but was not scheduled to speak at the event. In 2009 the European Union struck the MEK from its list of terror organisations while the US followed suit in 2012.

Iran Sends Downed Ukrainian Plane's Black Box to France
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 18 July, 2020
Iran has sent the black box of the Ukrainian passenger jet that its armed forces mistakenly shot down in January to France for reading, an Iranian semi-official news agency said Saturday. ILNA's report quoted Mohsen Baharvand, an aide to Iran’s foreign minister, as saying the downed jet's black box was transported to Paris on Friday, accompanied by Iranian civil aviation and judicial officials. Baharvand also said the black box will be read in Paris on Monday. Iran accidentally shot down the Boeing 737-800, killing all 176 people aboard, after mistaking it for an incoming missile.
Iranian armed forces had been bracing for a counterattack after launching missiles at US bases in Iraq in response to the killing of its top commander, General Qassim Soleimani, in a US strike earlier in January, the Associated Press reported.
Tehran has been in intense negotiations with Ukraine, Canada and other nations that had citizens aboard the downed plane, and which have demanded a thorough investigation into the incident. Iran initially blamed the crash on technical problems and only acknowledged shooting down the plane days later.
 

Egypt rejects Turkey’s intervention in affairs of Arab states: FM spokesman
Al Arabiya English/Saturday 18 July 2020
Egypt rejects Turkey’s political and military intervention in the affairs of Arab nations, whether it is in Iraq, Syria, or Libya, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Hafez said in a statement on Saturday, adding that it violates the Security Council resolutions. The spokesman said he was surprised by Turkey’s interference in the conflicts of other countries with the aim of causing disruption and Ankara's ideology in a way that wastes the resources of the Turkish people. The Arab nations refuse any efforts by those who want to run their affairs to achieve their own unrelated interests and goals, Hafez added.
Libya has been mired in conflict since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, but since 2019, fighting between the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar and the GNA has escalated as foreign involvement has intensified. Turkey backs the GNA in its fight and has been accused of sendings thousands of mercenaries and militants to Libya to fight. Egypt, a rival of Turkey that shares a porous desert border with Libya, has vowed to intervene militarily if Turkish-backed forces try to seize Sirte.

Kuwait’s Emir temporarily delegates some powers to crown prince
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 18 July 2020
Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah has authorized his crown prince to temporarily take over some responsibilities, according to Kuwait’s state news agency. The Kuwaiti emir was admitted earlier in the day to a hospital for medical tests, KUNA reported on Saturday citing the Amiri Diwan. The emir will be undergoing a number of medical checkups and is currently in good health, the Minister of the Amiri Diwan Affairs Sheikh Ali Jarrah al-Sabah said earlier. The 91-year-old emir has ruled the US ally and OPEC oil producer since 2006 and steered its foreign policy for more than 50 years. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz also called the Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah to ask about his health after Kuwait’s ruler was admitted to a hospital. In October of last year, Sheikh Sabah had suffered a health setback while in Kuwait and was admitted to a hospital in the United States during his trip for a meeting with US President Donald Trump. After receiving treatment, the emir then returned to Kuwait. *Al Arabiya English's Tamara Abueish contributed to this report


Tens of Thousands Stage anti-Kremlin Protests in Russia's Far East
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 18/2020
Tens of thousands of people rallied Saturday in the Russian far eastern city of Khabarovsk in new protests in support of a popular governor and in a rare show of defiance against the Kremlin. Sergei Furgal was arrested last week on charges of ordering the killings of businessmen 15 years ago. His arrest has sparked unprecedented demonstrations in Khabarovsk, a city of around 600,000 people near the border with China, and smaller towns nearby. The 50-year-old governor has denied the charges, which his supporters say are politically motivated. Furgal, of the nationalist LDPR party, won the governor's seat from a representative of the ruling United Russia party in 2018. On Saturday, tens of thousands, including young people, the elderly and women with children in pushchairs marched through the centre of Khabarovsk in temperatures of over 30C, an AFP correspondent said. They carried placards reading "Freedom for Furgal!" and chanted "As long as we are united we are invincible", as passing cars honked horns in support. The protesters called for a "fair trial" for the governor, and not in Moscow, where he is being held since his arrest. "It's our governor! And we will defend him!", they shouted. As with previous protests, the rally was not approved by the authorities, but police made no moves to disperse it. Last Saturday, tens of thousands also poured onto the streets of Khabarovsk to protest Furgal's arrest. The protests mark a rare show of defiance in the remote regions against the Kremlin, and come after President Vladimir Putin this month oversaw a deeply controversial constitutional vote that allows him to extend his hold on power until 2036.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 18-19/2020
V-Shaped Real Estate Can Fly as a Recovery Bet
John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 18/2020
Bricks and mortar are impervious to viruses. And if any sector of the US economy has made a true V-shaped recovery, it appears to be home-building. The latest survey of the National Association of Home Builders shows that the proportion seeing decent conditions is back almost to its highs of the last few years — having never fallen to the depths of a decade ago after the housing bubble burst. The continued decline in benchmark mortgage rates has had a lot to do with it.
This raises the interesting question of whether real assets will have a chance to blossom after this crisis. Perhaps surprisingly, listed real estate in the US has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three decades, on a total return basis — which allows for the reinvestment of the high rental yields generated by real estate investment trusts, or REITs.
There is now the possibility of a shakeup within the sector, in both the residential and commercial segments, and across the world. Home builders in the US are positive because the demand for their services in the suburbs is rising as a result of the virus. The NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz said:
"New home demand is improving in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead. Flight to the suburbs is real."
If there are any lasting changes from the pandemic, an interest in more dispersed living, and a departure from crammed city lifestyles, is one of the more likely. That will be good for home builders. However, the corollary of more telework, lower demand for office space, isn’t as yet having as severe an impact as might be expected. The following chart compares FTSE’s overall global REIT index with Bloomberg’s sectoral indexes for US regional malls, hotels, and office property. After a recovery into early June, hotels and malls are back at levels less than half of where they started the year. Meanwhile US offices are in line with the global average, which still sees commercial property in a bear market.
Is it reasonable to hope for a recovery from here? It might well be. Bond yields have dipped, as we are all aware. This makes the dividend yield that REITs are able to pay out of their rental income that much more attractive. In this chart, Capital Economics Ltd. of London shows the REIT dividend yield compared to the earnings yield (the inverse of the price-earnings ratio) of the S&P 500. This exercise suggests that REITs are at last attractively priced after years of looking expensive.
Trying the same exercise for FTSE’s global REIT index compared to the MSCI World index, and using dividend yields in both cases, we see that the spread in favor of REITs rose sharply with the beginning of the Covid crisis, and remains at roughly the same level.
Naturally, dividend yields are high for a reason. In the grips of recession, the fear is that a lot of rents will go unpaid. But this still creates possibilities.
One is at the level of what might be called stock selection. In the confusion following a serious economic shock, it remains unclear who will benefit and who will lose. According to President Trump, there is a risk that a newly elected President Biden would attempt to abolish the suburbs. That appears unlikely. But if some areas grow less popular, former tenants and owners will relocate. Working out the winners could be very profitable.
Secondly, at a macro level, real estate is still priced on the assumption of a major and enduring economic downturn. Data centers are the only commercial real estate sector to have gained since the pre-Covid peak on Feb. 19. Meanwhile, as the chart from Capital Economics shows, REITs as a whole are performing very much in line with airline stocks, which are an obvious play on the duration of the pandemic and its impact on economic activity.
For those who want to bet that the economy will do better than many now expect, and that there will be a shorter Covid interruption than we believe, real estate looks like a good way to make that bet. It behaves like airlines, only with extra yield.

Trump May Sabotage the Next Relief Bill
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/July, 18/2020
Difficult negotiations on another economic-stimulus bill got a bit worse on Thursday. And with very little margin for error going in, this is bad news indeed.
Remember the state of play. House Democrats passed a large bill — with more than $3 trillion in relief measures — two months ago. President Donald Trump and the White House haven’t always been on the same page, but in general seem to support doing something big to prevent a further meltdown. Senate Republicans have been following a policy of “wait and see,” while reporting indicates that they’re just now trying to come to an internal agreement about what to propose.
Meanwhile, multiple deadlines are approaching. Expanded unemployment insurance expires in little more than a week. The possibility of a severe eviction crisis is increasing. And lawmakers will only briefly be back in session before a month-long August recess, so if they don’t do something quickly there’s a chance that they won’t act until after Labor Day. Or later.
Into all of this the White House on Thursday tossed another complication: Trump may veto the package if a payroll-tax holiday isn’t included. The problem? Trump has pushed this idea before, and no one — Democrat or Republican — seems to support it. It’s just astonishing, although at this point not surprising, how poorly Trump is playing this. If he places such a high priority on a payroll-tax holiday, he should’ve been pushing hard for it — not mentioning it in passing a few times, but making a sustained case in public. He also should’ve been poking around Capitol Hill looking for potential allies and trade-offs. Are there Trump-loving senators who would be willing to fight for such a measure within the party? What would Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ask for in return? Or: What are the possibilities for creating a cross-party coalition, with Trump supporting a House Democratic priority (robust unemployment insurance? Money for state and local governments?) in exchange for payroll-tax relief. I don’t think House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would go far it, but maybe she would!
Of course, there’s also the possibility that Trump doesn’t actually care about this but some in his administration do. In that case, a strong president would’ve shut down the whole debate, or had his chief of staff do so. It would actually make sense if Trump was relatively indifferent to the substance of the next relief package and simply insisted that Congress get it done quickly. But that doesn’t at all cohere with pushing this unpopular measure as the White House’s big ask.
I think it’s more likely than not that Congress gets something done before the August recess, and that Trump ultimately goes along with it. But there’s still a chance that the whole thing blows up, and takes the economy down with it.

Iran's Mohammad Javad Zarif supports terrorism, just like Qassem Soleimani
Reza Parchizadeh/Saturday 18 July 2020
On July 31, 2019, the Trump Administration placed Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of the Islamist regime in Iran, on the US sanctions list. As expected, the leftist and liberal media in the West immediately made an outcry against the designation. That is because they typically tend to portray Foreign Minister Zarif as the moderate, peace-seeking diplomat who is at odds with the hardline, somber Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the brutal, missile-toting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). What they always fail to mention is that Zarif is only an agreeable showcase for the same apocalyptic regime that chants “Death to America,” calls for the destruction of Israel, and is intent upon conquering the Arab world.
In fact, Zarif runs one of the most elaborate influence campaigns in the US on behalf of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. Zarif’s extended overseas apparatus focuses on lowering the defenses of the democratic world with sleek smiles and false narratives so that the IRGC can more destructively strike. As such, what Zarif does is as deeply disturbing and detrimental to US security interests – as well as Middle East and world peace – as the already-terrorist-designated IRGC and its now-slain Major General Qassem Soleimani.
Zarif’s designation as a terrorist and criminal against humanity is equally important for fighting off the evil empire of the Islamist regime in Iran as is the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist entity.
The Islamic Republic is a totalitarian, isolationist, interventionist, and anti-Western regime. To overcome the problem of a lack of domestic and international legitimacy, the regime has devised a mechanism that showcases the dictatorial and chaotic Islamist regime as “democratic,” “stable,” and “popular,” with a fair degree of internal opposition as guarantee of its dynamism and openness.
The reformist and moderate factions that the regime has been promoting with the help of the leftist and liberal media in the West for over 20 years is precisely the manifestation of that security project of creating a fake, state-run opposition that acts as a safety valve for the regime on the domestic and international stage. Zarif is the puppet master of the Iranian regime’s fake opposition in the West. While in New York as Iran’s deputy representative in the late 1980s, and then representative to the United Nations in the early 2000s, Zarif and a couple other functionaries, best known as the “New York Boys,” set the foundation stone for the Islamist regime’s lobby network in the US. These interest groups would concentrate on cultivating connections and currying favor with the leftist and liberal media, organizations and politicians in the US. In the meantime, they would plant regime assets disguised as “dissidents” in sensitive strategic areas such as human rights organizations, universities, think tanks, state and private media, and even government agencies in the democratic world.
The Zarif-run fake opposition mostly acts as padding for the Islamist regime abroad. One of its functions is to persuade the West that the “opposition” does not want to overthrow the regime and only wants to reform it. Another is that it constantly scares the Iranian people and the world community from the prospects of a regime change in Iran, and goads them to participate in state-engineered procedures such as elections and negotiations to generate legitimacy for the regime. Another function is to broker deals for the regime, whether with private entities or with governments. The most well-known example of these deals, of course, was the JCPOA, better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, with the Obama administration, which proved to be a disaster for world peace.
However, faced with the prospect of the collapse of the whole system, the fake opposition is exposed as fake, and the claimed duality of moderate vs. hardliner starts to fade.
This becomes clear when the fake opposition, headed by Zarif himself, constantly lobbies in Europe and the US to keep the Supreme Leader and the IRGC away from the sanctions list and designation for international terrorism and war crimes. A conspicuous instance of this trend took place when Zarif and his network in the West made an outcry against the designation of the IRGC by the US. Some of these so-called moderates in Iran went as far as to put on IRGC garb in a show of solidarity with the terrorist organization. Zarif himself appeared side-by-side with Soleimani, stating that they had a “perfect working relationship.” Later, these same moderates vociferously condemned the killing of Soleimani.
Most recently, during a hearing at the Majlis (the Iranian Parliament), Zarif went out of his way and made an eye-opening admission that should dispel any illusion of his moderation and independence from the criminal core of the regime. Addressing angry Members of Parliament who accused him of disloyalty to the regime’s regional designs, Zarif retorted: “Say whatever you want, but Martyr Soleimani and I would hold a meeting every week and coordinate. Whatever we did regarding regional affairs was in coordination. Those who know Martyr Soleimani, those who consorted with Martyr Soleimani, those who hang around Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and the resistance in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine know the depth of our relationship, not you!”
Zarif himself, as Secretary Pompeo once pointed out, has admitted that he coordinated fully with Soleimani when the regime was killing Americans. They also worked in tandem to commit crimes against humanity in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The Islamist regime in Iran has managed to deceive the West and the Iranian people for two decades with its claims that it is a dual system, made up of supposed pro-Western moderate and reformist factions and the anti-Western hardliner and IRGC group. However, it looks like the free world is finally coming around to see the substance of the sinister regime, looking beyond the feigned legitimacy that Zarif and his fake opposition have for years worked to generate. As such, Zarif’s designation as a terrorist can be the starting point for the dismantling of the Islamist regime’s network of influence in the West and finally the collapse of its evil empire.
*Dr. Reza Parchizadeh is a political theorist and analyst. His area of expertise is the Middle East, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. He defended his doctoral dissertation at Indiana University of Pennsylvania (IUP) under the title “The Recurring Progress of English Political Thought in Shakespeare’s Histories,” with a concentration on political thought, history of ideas, philosophy of history, cultural studies and Shakespeare, and passed it with distinction.

New US-China rivalry will force the world to take sides

Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/July 18/2020
When a new great power emerges to challenge the status quo, disturbance is inevitable — so it was only a matter of time before the US and China clashed.
The gulf between the two nations has grown in the past two years, although neither the Bush nor Obama administrations were unfettered fans of the Beijing regime; they were happy for US companies to collaborate with China and for supply chains to become more integrated, but they understood that while China was open to trade and entrepreneurship, the US and Chinese governments differed greatly on democracy and human rights.
Donald Trump is not particularly perturbed by a country’s record on those two issues. His aim is to “make America great again” and return jobs to its rust belt. He went toe to toe with Beijing on trade. He had valid points as far as a level playing field was concerned, in terms of opening the investment market, limiting the preferred status of Chinese state-owned enterprises and stopping the theft of intellectual property. There were trade negotiations, and a phase 1 trade agreement.
However, there was acrimony about Huawei and fears that China could spy on the US and its allies if they integrated Huawei equipment into their 5G infrastructure. Then the COVID-19 pandemic ratcheted up the controversy as Washington accused Beijing of not reacting appropriately and quickly enough to the virus, allowing it to spread globally. China’s new security law for Hong Kong made the rift all the more apparent. It supersedes Hong Kong’s constitution, the Basic Law, restricts the civil liberties of Hong Kong citizens, and effectively ends the “one country, two systems” structure that was supposed to last until 2047 under the terms of the Sino-British declaration of 1984.This month Trump terminated Hong Kong’s special economic status, and said he did not think there was currently room for further developing a US-China trade deal.
Some have suggested that we are on the verge of a new Cold War. We are not. The original Cold War between the Western and Soviet blocs was defined by an arms race and proxy military stand-offs across a series of borders throughout bthe world. Although this new power struggle has the potential to become military, it is mainly about economic influence.
China has embarked on rapid economic and geopolitical expansion. Western nations took some time to realizehow far the $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative was designed to extend China’s reach. It was not until Sri Lanka was forced to lease the port of Hambantota to a Chinese state-owned ports company for 99 years in compensation for debt on which it would otherwise have defaulted that Western nations fully understood the BRI’s geopolitical dimension. When a new great power emerges to challenge the status quo, disturbance is inevitable — so it was only a matter of time before the US and China clashed.
Now the Huawei controversy threatens to split the world into pro-China and pro US camps. The UK hasexcluded Huawei from its 5G infrastructure, which is a clear victory for Donald Trump.
The controversy over Hong Kong has also raised questions about the status of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of one China but most Western nations see as independent. Taiwan matters, not just to Japan, which has an old and close relationship with it, but to many other countries too. Taiwan is also one of the leading manufacturers of semiconductors, so its status matters to the world economy at large.
Many of China’s southeast Asian neighbours are concerned about its increased military presence, particularly in the South China Sea. China’s defense budget has grown steadily in lockstep with its economy; at $178 billion in 2020 it is the second-largest in the world, and increased by 6.6 percent from 2019 to 2020. China’s divergence from the US is therefore ideological, economic and increasingly military too. Washington may have its reasons to ratchet up the rhetoric against Beijing, but in the past three years the US has also withdrawn from multilateral frameworks such as the Paris treaty on climate change and the World Health Organization. China steadfastly supported these organisations, giving it in the eyes of many the status of a friend of the multilateral global order.
We are back to where we started: The economic and geopolitical rise of China has coincided with America’s skepticism and withdrawal from the post-1945 world order, which is based on multilateralism.
It is self-evident that this will lead to friction. Even if Donald Trump loses November’s presidential election, we should not expect matters to revert to how they were before. The world and the US have moved on. Anti-China rhetoric has ratcheted up on both sides of the political divide in the US, as Democratic candidate Joe Biden vies with Trump in his skepticism of Beijing.
It is now up to the rest of the world to choose where they want to align in this debate, which is not an easy decision. Stay tuned …
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Attack on Israel’s judges is an attack on its democracy
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 18/2020
In the outside world, Bezalel Smotrich is far from a household name. Nevertheless, in Israeli politics he has gained a reputation, as a matter of fact mainly notoriety, as a shameless extreme right-wing populist provocateur who freely expresses bigoted, racist and anti-democratic propositions.
Smotrich is a Knesset member representing the Yemina party, lives in one of the more ideological settlements in the occupied West Bank, and is one of the most ardent supporters of annexing the entire West Bank. To complete the picture, he advocates the segregation of Jewish and Arab mothers in hospital maternity wards, and his Twitter account was suspended after a tweet suggesting that the Palestinian teenage girl Ahed Tamimi, who made headlines after confronting Israeli soldiers, “should have been shot, at least in her kneecap … this would have put her under house arrest for life.” He sees the Jews as landlords of the entire territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, who in their “generosity” and as good hosts are allowing the Palestinian Arabs, whether inside Israel or in the occupied territories, to stay as guests, at least for now. By now you probably get the picture … almost.
Smotrich also detests the Supreme Court, even more than he loathes his ideological rivals. In his eyes this institution of the democratic system is a facilitator of liberal ideas that he equally abhors, and its judges lackeys in the hands of left-leaning politicians and media and those abroad who are trying to deprive the settlers and the state of Israel of their “right” to restore the glory of the ancient Kingdom of David from the Jordan river to the sea. So his initiative to establish a commission of inquiry that will probe conflicts of interests among Supreme Court justices was far from being out of character for this rogue element in the Israeli democratic system. He belongs to the type of politician, not unknown in modern history, who uses the democratic system to get elected only to then do their utmost to destroy it from within.
It has to be said that there is a consensus that no judge should deliberate a case in which there is a conflict of interests, as the law itself states. Smotrich’s proposal, which was voted down by the Knesset only when it became apparent that Blue & White would bring the coalition down if it were adopted, has exposed once again the deep divisions over perceptions of the rule of law and the entire judicial system that exist between different sections of Israeli society. His proposed inquiry was not about holding judges to account, but holding them to ransom. It was an attempt to intimidate the country’s most senior judges, something particularly disturbing at a time when the prime minister himself is a defendant in a court of justice, facing unprecedented corruption charges. Its purpose was to let it be known to judges across the board that the politicians are after them, and if they don’t comply with the capricious demands of those politicians they will suffer the consequences.
Judges are not above the law and their accountability and the transparency of their actions are essential in maintaining trust in the judicial system. But demands such as Smotrich is making are pretty rich coming from those politicians who attack the rule of law, who incite against their rivals, who support illegal settlements, who try to bend the law to allow politicians to escape justice, and who insist on appointing judges to suit their ideology and interests.
Attack on Israel’s judges is part of Netanyahu’s, his family’s and their henchmen’s wider assault on the country’s democratic institutions, processes and debates.
And guess who supported this call for an investigation until he realised that he might lose his government? Yes, it is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is charged with fraud, bribery and breach of trust, and at some point in the legal proceedings may face these senior judges if his case should go to appeal. So why not start intimidating them right away so they will bear it in mind later?
This is part of Netanyahu’s, his family’s and their henchmen’s wider assault on the country’s democratic institutions, processes and debates, and on anyone who has been involved with or defended the justice system in investigating, indicting and presiding over the prime minister’s alleged crimes and earlier of his wife’s conviction. Their son Yair Netanyahu, one of the prime minister’s closest advisers, has made a habit of calling for the attorney general to be investigated for his “crimes,” and this son of the prime minister of the Jewish state was quoted in the Israeli media as accusing the police of acting like the Nazi Gestapo during their interrogation of suspects in his father’s corruption cases.
Nothing is left sacred, nothing is revered any more for the Netanyahus and their political stooges as they set out to destroy democracy in their attempt to escape justice. Unlike the previous generation of Likud politicians who might have held hawkish ideas or were socially and economically conservative but respected the rule of law and the justice system as sacrosanct, this crop is comprised of brutish nationalist-populists who are more interested in power and imposing their will, and if this involves destroying the separation of powers, a cornerstone of any democratic system, so be it.
Don’t get Smotrich wrong — he is no fan of Netanyahu. On the contrary, he doesn’t trust him, and sees him as a soft-right charlatan who has no courage to do what Smotrich would have done had he been in power, including annexing the occupied territories in their entirety in complete defiance of the rest of the world. However, in their blind hatred of the judicial system the two men are one and the same.
If the Knesset is sincere in wanting to eradicate conflicts of interests and corruption from public life, as it should be, it should start closer to home. Knesset members should look at the figures showing how many Israeli politicians have been indicted and convicted for corruption compared to the number of judges, and this might instil in them some humility. One thing is certain — any judge indicted on much lesser charges than those facing Netanyahu would have suspended themselves instantly from their role, unlike the current Israeli prime minister.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

Tunisia’s politicians would rather squabble than govern
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/July 18/2020
Tunisians have long expected and are in desperate need of structural reform, to deal not only with the socioeconomic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic but also other long-standing issues such as corruption and unemployment. But nearly a decade after the fall of the Ben Ali regime, it is almost as if the country has grown comfortable with a bickering political elite more interested in securing power than in exercising it.
Elyes Fakhfakh’s resignation last week as prime minister might have staved off a political crisis (support for a no-confidence motion in the national assembly was already nearly twice the legal requirement), but it cannot be separated from a troubling stream of developments in a partisan political environment, in which nine governments have been hastily cobbled together and then collapsed since the 2011 uprising.
Granted, there are good arguments for Fakhfakh’s departure. At one point, corruption in public transactions was costing Tunisia more than $700,000 a year. Nevertheless, the prime minister casually admitted owning shares in a company that won a government contract after the election last year. Setting aside the debate on propriety and the whiff of corruption, it is sufficient cause to question his judgment, and ask why he did not divest before his appointment or disclose the conflict of interest before the contract was awarded.
Conduct such as this is a symptom of the underlying patronage systems built into the sociopolitical models of most Arab countries. It is also partly why Tunisia’s politics are crippled by gridlock, which in turn impairs any progress toward the reforms touted by politicians on the campaign trail.
Patronage systems build a network of entrenched interests, and normalize politicians soliciting support from individuals and entities who will expect to be rewarded when those politicians attain positions of power; the beneficiaries range from business people to trade unionists, who object to any reforms aimed at, for instance, increasing competition by removing barriers to market access, or cutting the public sector wage bill by trimming a bloated civil service. It is not an accident that the new anti-corruption authority is still not operational, while its predecessor remains underfunded and understaffed.
Tunisia’s elected politicians could have launched an inquiry into the Fakhfakh affair, but they preferred to demand his resignation.
Tunisia’s elected politicians could have launched an inquiry into the Fakhfakh affair, but they preferred to demand his resignation. Clearly, even after nine years of political turmoil, their primary focus remains on scoring political victories instead of advancing a pandemic response to protect lives, secure livelihoods and set Tunisia back on the path toward stronger democratic institutions, economic growth, low unemployment and maximizing benefits of its unique geographical location between Africa, the Middle East and Europe. Tunisia has done well in confronting the virus, but there are concerns that a second wave is looming and the rush to economic reopening risks a new spike in infections, as seen in Europe, Asia and the US.
There are a number of opportunities Tunisia can take advantage of as part of a broader strategy to shore up its economic fundamentals and even begin tackling persistently high unemployment, particularly among the young. With the Nawara Gas Project now operational, Tunisia will be less reliant on energy imports and may cut the trade deficit by as much as 7 percent. The resulting savings could go toward boosting social safety nets ahead of major reforms targeting state-owned enterprises.
State entities are draining the government budget and stifling private sector growth, and are substantial barriers to investment. Public-private partnerships will certainly help begin the slow privatization process, which has benefits such as shifting job creation and growth to the private sector, trimming a bloated civil service wage bill and encouraging more foreign investment. Tunisia will also need to rationalize parts of its informal sector that is estimated to be at least 40 percent of the overall economy, and pits legitimate, tax-paying entities against unregulated competitors.
To accomplish all these objectives, Tunisia must first reckon with its growing acclimatization to constantly changing governments and political controversies. An absentee legislature coupled with a disillusioned voting public is a breeding ground for populist and extremist elements to spread and entrench their ideals, which could frustrate progress toward full democratization, greater economic resilience and long-term stability.
It can only be hoped that whoever President Kais Saied chooses to replace the departing prime minister will fare better at navigating the national assembly’s divisions and build on what little progress has been made so far. Tunisia has still managed to improve the business climate through updates to bankruptcy and investment laws and enabling public-private partnerships, despite short-lived governments and endless news cycles of controversy and palace intrigue. Other reforms include a Start-Up Act to encourage entrepreneurship and new budget laws aimed at ensuring greater transparency and public awareness of government investments every three years.
However, real progress will be visible to the general public only when government initiatives begin to make a dent in high unemployment numbers, lowering inflation and examining monetary policy adjustments in order to rein in public debt. So far, none of that has happened, and should President Saied fail this latest test by appointing an establishmentarian, it is likely that Tunisia will experience more of the same for the foreseeable future. Fakhfakh’s resignation should be a wake-up call that Tunisia’s political elite cannot afford to ignore.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell