English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 09/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july09.20.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
An evil and adulterous generation asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah
Matthew 16/01-04: “The Pharisees and Sadducees came, and to test Jesus they asked him to show them a sign from heaven. He answered them, ‘When it is evening, you say, “It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.” And in the morning, “It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.” You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. An evil and adulterous generation asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah.’ Then he left them and went away.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 08-09/2020
Lebanon Records Significant Uptick in COVID-19 Cases
U.S. Commander Meets Aoun, Stresses 'Strong Partnership' between Two Armies
Hariri Meets Aude, Says Not Seeking to Return as PM
Scuffles as Protesters Slam U.S. Commander's Visit to Lebanon
Kassim Tajideen Arrives in Beirut after U.S. Releases Him
Berri Says No One Can Alter His Rapprochement with Bassil
Bassil Says Govt. May Not Stay if Current Performance Continues
Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The U.S. Dollar
U.S. Prosecutors Say Ghosn Wired Money to Man who Helped Him Flee
Hariri not ready to return to government now
Lebanon's Rising Power Cuts Add to Gloom of Economic Crisis
Lebanon: Berri Rejects Putting Economic Burden on Depositors
Bukhari Hails Rai’s Calls to ‘Neutralize Lebanon’
Lebanese Convicted of Financing Hezbollah in US Returns Home
Nasrallah slams Israel’s annexation, threatens US ambassador to Lebanon
Lebanon’s elites scramble to avoid the reckoning for its debt crisis/David Gardner/Financial Times/July 08/2020
Lebanon as a Permanent Border Problem/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2020
The Lebanese state is going after social media activists/Aya Iskandarani/The National/July 08/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 08-09/2020
Canadian MP Erin O'Toole  running for PM pledges to move embassy to Jerusalem
Hezbollah media: Hamas arrests ISIS cells operating for Israel
Turkey Keeps Prominent Opposition Figure Detained
Italy Mulling to Exclude Huawei from 5G
Hamas, Fatah to Agree on 'Popular Resistance'
US condemns assassination of Iraqi researcher al-Hashemi, says Pompeo
Iraq should hold Iran-affiliated militias accountable for killing Iraqis: US analyst
Killing of Iraq's Hashemi Stirs Fear of New Violent Phase
Mounting Anger in Turkey after Losses in Watiya Raid
Assassinations Target Maher Assad’s Associates in Syria
Trump: 'I Disagree' with Fauci on COVID-19 in the U.S.
Russia, China Veto U.N. Extension of Cross-Border Aid in Syria

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 08-09/2020
Hisham al Hashimi and the Premonitory Assassination/Charles Elias Chartouni/July 08/2020
Bargaining for Idlib/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2020
The Covid Surge Will Slam Southern States’ Economies/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July 08/2020
Farrakhan's Threats for Advocating Vaccinations/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/July 08/2020
A Conversation with Daniel Pipes/Gregoire Canlorbe/Gatestone Institute/July 08/2020
Al-Hashemi's killing is a warning of a further security upheaval in Iraq/Mona Alami/Al Arabiya/July 08/2020
Betting on the Iraqi army/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/July 08/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 08-09/2020
Lebanon Records Significant Uptick in COVID-19 Cases
Naharnet/July 08/2020
Lebanon on Wednesday confirmed 39 new COVID-19 cases, which is a significant one-day surge for the small country. In its daily statement, the Health Ministry said 24 of the cases were recorded among residents and 15 among Lebanese expats who returned to Lebanon in recent days. Fifteen of the local cases have been traced to known sources. The 15 expats have meanwhile come from Congo, Ivory Coast, Benin, Nigeria, Zambia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UK. Five of the local cases were recorded in Beirut, eight in the Baabda district, one in Northern Metn, three in the Aley district, one in the Jbeil district, one in Tripoli, one in the Zahle district and one is still under investigation. The new cases raise the country's resident and expat tally to 1,945 -- among them 36 deaths and 1,368 recoveries.

U.S. Commander Meets Aoun, Stresses 'Strong Partnership' between Two Armies
Naharnet/July 08/2020
General Kenneth McKenzie, Commander of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), conducted a one-day visit to Lebanon on July 8, 2020, the U.S. embassy said. McKenzie met with President Michel Aoun at Baabda Palace, where he “reaffirmed the importance of preserving Lebanon’s security, stability, and sovereignty, and underscored the importance of the strong partnership between the United States and the Lebanese Armed Forces,” the embassy said in a statement. Aoun for his part called for boosting military cooperation between the two countries, according to a tweet posted by the Lebanese Presidency. He also lauded "the ongoing cooperation between the Lebanese and American armies in the fields of training and equipment," remembering "the support that the Lebanese Army received from the U.S. army against terrorists during the Fajr al-Juroud battle." "The army managed to eradicate the members of the terrorist groups' sleeping cells and it is continuing to pursue them," the president added. McKenzie was accompanied by USCENTCOM officials and officers, as well as U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, and the U.S. Defense Attaché, Robert Meine. The one-day visit to Lebanon also included meetings with senior Lebanese political and defense leaders, including representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the Lebanese Armed Forces, office calls at the U.S. Embassy, and a brief stop at memorials honoring the memory of fallen soldiers.

Hariri Meets Aude, Says Not Seeking to Return as PM
Naharnet/July 08/2020
Ex-PM Saad Hariri held talks Wednesday with Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude after which he reiterated that he is not seeking to return to the PM post. “I wanted to visit His Eminence, Metropolitan Aude so that we work anew for the capital Beirut and we have rejected all calls for dividing the capital and Lebanon,” Hariri said after the meeting. Asked whether pulling Lebanon out of its crisis requires him to return as PM and whether his condition is the absence of Jebran Bassil from any Cabinet’s line-up, Hariri said: “I’m not seeking to return.”
“What I’m saying is that any premier in power must have the capabilities to be able to to work and these capabilities need several factors, including the presence of experts who truly know the affairs of their ministries and not merely technocrat ministers,” Hariri added. “They should understand the nature of true reform,” he said. Stresssing that reform should occur according to “scientific rules,” Hariri reminded that his last government had taken 21 decisions in this regard. “Had they been implemented, things would have started to improve in the country,” he went on to say.

Scuffles as Protesters Slam U.S. Commander's Visit to Lebanon
Naharnet/July 08/2020
A rally was held Wednesday morning near Beirut’s airport in protest at the visit of the U.S. army's Central Command chief to Lebanon, the National News Agency said. Al-Jadeed television said scuffles erupted between Lebanese troops and the demonstrators. It did not elaborate.

Kassim Tajideen Arrives in Beirut after U.S. Releases Him
Associated Press/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 08/2020
A Lebanese businessman serving a five-year sentence in the United States for allegedly providing millions of dollars to Hizbullah arrived Wednesday in Beirut after his early release, local media reported. Kassim Tajideen was sentenced last year in a federal court in Washington for his alleged role in a money laundering conspiracy aimed at evading U.S. sanctions. He was arrested in Morocco and extradited to the U.S. in 2017, where he was he was charged with laundering money for Hizbullah. There was no immediate comment from U.S. or Lebanese officials on his early release.
Lebanon' National News Agency reported Tajideen's arrival. LBCI TV broadcast a video taken with a mobile phone of his arrival at the Beirut airport. He stepped out of a small jet, wearing a face mask as a necessary coronavirus precaution. The video shows a man rushing toward Tajideen, hugging him and stooping down to Tajideen's feet in celebration of his release. In a statement, Tajideen's family welcomed "his return to Beirut after a painful absence of over three years in prison in the United States." It said his return had been delayed "until a plane was provided to transport him and other Lebanese citizens from the United States to Lebanon." A Washington federal judge had ordered the release of Tajideen in May. The National, an English-language newspaper in the United Arab Emirates, said the 64-year-old Tajideen was granted compassionate release due to health conditions and fears of coronavirus infections in prison. The U.S. Department of Justice had contested the release. Tajideen was accused of conspiring with at least five other people to conduct over $50 million in transactions with U.S. businesses, in violation of sanctions that barred him from doing business with U.S. nationals and companies because of his suspected support for Hizbullah. Tajideen pleaded guilty last December and agreed to forfeit $50 million. In March, Lebanon's Military Court ordered the release of a Lebanese-American held in the country for nearly six months on charges of working for the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army militia two decades ago. Amer Fakhoury's release raised speculation that Tajideen may be granted early release in return. But Tajideen's lawyer has said there has not been a swap. Fakhoury, 57, who had faced decades-old murder and torture charges in Lebanon, became a U.S. citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire. U.S. officials had called for imposing sanctions on Lebanon to pressure Beirut to release him.

Berri Says No One Can Alter His Rapprochement with Bassil
Naharnet/July 08/2020
The meeting between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil last week was a “foundational meeting,” a media report said. In remarks to al-Joumhouria newspaper published Wednesday, Berri said he and Bassil will not allow anyone to undermine their new rapprochement.“Let no one try to drive a wedge between us,” Berri said. “Even if a disagreement arises in the future over a certain issue, that should not harm the ties,” the Speaker added. He also stressed that the Ain el-Tineh agreement does not come “at anyone’s expense,” noting that it is “a platform that is open towards everyone.”Berri also hoped the rapprochement will reflect on the popular bases of the FPM and the AMAL Movement.

Bassil Says Govt. May Not Stay if Current Performance Continues
Naharnet/July 08/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has suggested that Hassan Diab’s government might be changed in the near future. “We do not accept this approach of low productivity which we have witnessed recently,” Bassil said in an interview. “It may not stay if it fails to do more,” he added, referring to the government.He also said the government should carry out reforms regardless of any foreign conditions or pressures.

Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The U.S. Dollar
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 08/2020
The lines snaked around the block. Then they swelled to fill the whole street, before they turned into a raucous mob of men shoving to the front of the line. There at the exchange bureau, they could buy rationed dollars, the hottest commodity in Lebanon. The small country's financial meltdown has thrown Lebanese into a frantic search for dollars as their local currency's value evaporates. To get the precious hard currency, they must navigate labyrinthine regulations, exploiting any loopholes they can to rescue their earnings. Every transaction, from doctor fees to store purchases to rent, is negotiated day by day, juggling the tumbling Lebanese pound and multiple, changing dollar exchange rates. Those who can are snapping up luxury goods or real estate, trying to use their dollars trapped in bank accounts frozen by the cash-strapped authorities. The turmoil is deepening resentment of the political elite and the once flourishing banking system -- and fueling desperation. "They are going to crash us into a wall," Chris Georgian, a 25-year-old student, said, trying to buy $600 at an exchange bureau to send for his university fees in Armenia. Last week, a 61-year-old man apparently distraught over his economic situation shot and killed himself on a Beirut commercial street, one of multiple suicides during the crisis. Despite survival skills honed by political tension and wars, nothing prepared Lebanese for having to line up to buy money. During the 15-year civil war and Israel's invasion and occupation of the south and Beirut, there may have been queues for water or bread, but Lebanon was always flush with dollars. Since 1997, the local currency, the pound, was pegged at around 1,500 to the dollar, and Lebanese used the two interchangeably.
That stability was built on what experts say was essentially a Ponzi scheme that let banks and the elite profit while allowing Lebanese to live beyond their means.
Successive governments borrowed from private banks to finance massive public debt and pay for vital imports like fuel -- but also luxury goods -- eating into depositors' dollar accounts. Most of those deposits were from Lebanese expats attracted by high interest rates.
It collapsed when remittances and direct foreign investments plunged in recent years. In the ensuing liquidity crunch, the pound has lost nearly 85% of its value. Tens of thousands have fallen into poverty, wages are worth only a fraction of what they once were, and prices are skyrocketing -- stripping Lebanon of its trademark joie de vivre and vibrancy. Chain retailers have shut down, unable to import or price goods with the fluctuating rates. Some vendors have either closed or only take payment in dollars. Dollar accounts have been frozen, and those trapped dollars have become "Monopoly money" with no value outside Lebanon, said Dan Azzi, a former banker and analyst. He coined a name for that currency, the "Lollar" or Lebanese dollar.
People began hoarding cash dollars, getting relatives living abroad to transfer dollars, which -- unlike frozen local accounts -- can be withdrawn from the bank. Some sell gold for dollars. "We buy gold at the highest price $39-$55 and in cash," reads one jeweler's marketing telephone message.
The peg remains in place officially, even as the black market price of a dollar has spiraled to at least five times that. Meanwhile, authorities imposed rationing on exchange bureaus, limiting how many dollars a person can buy and setting a rate higher than the peg but lower than the black market.
That fanned the raucous lines. Some bought dollars only to sell them on the black market. New phone apps cropped up to keep track of multiple rates. "Isn't all this humiliating?" said Elie, a security guard keeping order at an exchange bureau. "When senior officials were making money, we were getting some of it. Now they aren't anymore, so they deny it to us," he said, declining to give his last name because of his job. Many scramble for ways to use their trapped "Lollars," fearing they could eventually lose them completely. Lines formed outside luxury retailer Louis Vuitton because it was selling at a rate half the black market. Others use stuck dollars to settle bank loans, still valued at the official peg. Azzi estimates loans up to $15 billion have been paid already.
Ghassan Frem, a dentist, paid a friend's loan of over $30,000 with his "Lollars." She paid him the money in an account abroad. It is a win-win: He uses his "dead" dollars, and the friend settles her loan at a discount. Meanwhile, Frem bought $950-worth of new air conditioners on his credit card. The trick is: He pays his credit card bill at the official rate with pounds he bought on the black market for far fewer dollars. Many use this loophole, buying merchandise or doing renovations whether they need it or not, to rescue trapped dollars.
"Anyone who can get back at the banks is doing some good," Frem said. "We do to them what they have done to us."On social media, some proposed organizing a peer-to-peer platform to avoid using banks. Meanwhile, real estate transactions jumped more than 16% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the General Directorate of Land Registry. One of Lebanon's largest real estate companies, Solidere, reported a profit for the first time since 2018.
For his dentist clinic, Frem negotiates purchasing supplies item by item, hour by hour. One Monday afternoon, he ordered a product and by the time it arrived the next day, the dollar price had gone up 20%. "The delivery guy got a text message with the new price when he arrived," Frem said.
For Georgian, the student, his education is on the line. A third-year psychology student in a Yerevan university, he returned to Lebanon because of coronavirus. With his parents' dollars locked up, he has to chase dollars to finance his return.
At the exchange office, he asked the guard to walk him through the documents he needed. Under new rules to curb profiteering, you must prove you need rationed dollars to pay education fees, rent, medical fees or salaries for foreign workers. No one gets cash -- the dollars you buy are sent directly to the destination. Still, Georgian was relieved. His school fees are $600, and the cost for that at the exchange is about half what it would be on the black market, saving him enough to live for months in Yerevan. "If the dollar keeps rising, I will never go back," he said. "I will lose my education."Georgian questioned his parents' decision to remain in Lebanon despite constant complaints of corruption. "They said they didn't think it will be this bad," he said, shaking his head.

U.S. Prosecutors Say Ghosn Wired Money to Man who Helped Him Flee
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 08/2020
Former Nissan Motor Co. Chairman Carlos Ghosn wired more than $860,000 to a company linked to one of the men accused of helping smuggle him out of Japan in a box last year, U.S. prosecutors said in a new court filing. Prosecutors filed documents detailing two wire transfers made by Ghosn in October 2019 as evidence they say shows Michael Taylor and Peter Taylor "have the resources with which to flee and therefore should continue to remain detained as flight risks." The documents show two wire transfers to the company Promote Fox LLC, which prosecutors say is managed by Peter Taylor.
Michael Taylor, a 59-year-old U.S. Army Special Forces veteran, and his 27-year-old son Peter Taylor are wanted in Japan on allegations that they helped Ghosn flee the country in December while he was out on bail and awaiting trial on financial misconduct allegations.
The Taylors are urging a judge to order their immediate release from jail while they challenge Japan's extradition request, arguing among other things that their health is in danger behind bars because of the coronavirus pandemic. Their lawyers say the men don't pose a risk of flight or danger to the community.
The defense says the Taylors were unlawfully arrested and argue they can't be extradited because "bail jumping" is not a crime in Japan and, therefore, helping someone evade their bail conditions isn't a crime either. "Even assuming the Taylors were properly arrested, holding them without bail on a tenuous charge in a jail that has been plagued by COVID-19 violates their Fifth and Eighth Amendment rights. This is especially the case because neither is a risk of flight and there are undoubtedly conditions under which they can be released," their attorneys told a judge in a filing this week.
Authorities say the Taylors helped sneak Ghosn out of the Japan on a private jet with former Nissan boss tucked away in a large box. The flight went first to Turkey, then to Lebanon, where Ghosn has citizenship but which has no extradition treaty with Japan.
Ghosn said he fled because he could not expect a fair trial, was subjected to unfair conditions in detention and was barred from meeting his wife under his bail conditions. Ghosn has said he is innocent of allegations he under-reported his future income and committed a breach of trust by diverting Nissan money for his personal gain.

Hariri not ready to return to government now
The Arab Weekly/July 08/2020
The government of Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab is in trouble due to the political authorities’ floundering policies and inability to find solutions to the country’s accelerating economic and financial collapse. Diab’s government has also failed to manage talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Two members of the negotiating team have already resigned and more resignations are expected amid poor prospects of reaching an agreement with the international lender. The ruling elite, led by the Amal Movement, has thus begun a search for different solutions, new and old, one of which includes opening up lines of communication with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in an attempt to persuade him to return and form a government. Hariri, however, does not seem enthusiastic about the idea. Hariri, who leads the Future Movement, said in recent statements that he does not expect his return in the short term, “at least not until the conditions that everyone knows are fulfilled so that the hope of economic recovery and giving the Lebanese people what they really want can be materialised: real reform and an opportunity for national, social and personal dignity.” Hariri indicated that he does not regret resigning as he followed the protesters wishes, explaining, “This is a democracy and we will hold elections sooner or later. It is the votes that count and I honestly believe that what I did was necessary, as none of the politicians wanted to acknowledge the seriousness of the crisis. They intended to continue working in the same old way as always, while the crisis cannot be solved without departing from traditional thinking. ”
Hariri submitted his resignation on October 29, a few days after the outbreak of popular protests calling for the departure of the ruling class, who were widely blamed for the country’s economic and social deterioration. Lebanon is currently facing the worst financial and economic crisis since the Civil War (1975-1991), due to widespread corruption and spillover effects from the Syrian war, especially after the implementation of the US Caesar Act. Contrary to expectations that Hariri would be the biggest loser after exiting power, the situation seems to have reversed, with him getting out of the picture before Lebanon’s crisis deteriorated even further. It is no secret that Hariri lost a lot politically and with his Sunni constituency as a result of his involvement in the presidential deal with Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement. Hariri also weakened relations with Arab countries that viewed his deal with Aoun as disappointing, as it strengthened the position of Hezbollah at the centre of power.
Now, Hariri realises that returning to head the government at a time when powers controlling the scene are refusing to make concessions and when the international community is unwilling to help Lebanon would amount to political suicide. Sources in Lebanon, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Hariri believes that no Hezbollah members or figures close to the Shia group should be included in the formation of any new government. The sources added that Hariri’s belief does not stem from a personal stance towards Hezbollah, but rather from a realisation that there is no hope for the return of foreign aid if the Shia group takes part in ruling matters again. Hezbollah, however, does not seem ready to make any concessions. It continues to insist on keeping all the strings of the power game in its hands, despite realising that this could lead to the collapse of the country.
Hezbollah’s insistence on participating in the government is due to several factors, the most important of which is maintaining political cover it needs in light of increasing US pressure. Hezbollah is also hoping that its project will succeed in completely disengaging Lebanon from the West and link it to the east.
A file picture shows former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri speaking during a ceremony marking the 15th anniversary of the assassination of his father and former s unlikely to return to government in the short-term, although he is still keen on remaining in contact with Hezbollah, as evidenced by his recent reconciliatory statements about the group.
“We must understand that 60% of the people voted for Hezbollah, which Washington considers to be a terrorist group. This is a democracy and Hezbollah’s existence and votes in parliament cannot be denied,” Hariri said in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais.
He added, “We do not approve of Hezbollah’s regional strategy, and we do not think such a strategy is positive for Lebanon’s national interest. What is happening today is what we feared in the past: putting the country in a situation in which the international community focuses on ties between Lebanon and Iran, and this is where we are now, a country suffering from Hezbollah’s regional policy.”Observers say that Hariri is waiting for the right moment to return to government. Until then, they say, his priority is to rearrange his party and consolidate the Sunni support he needs. He has received the support of several former prime ministers in this endeavour. Lebanese Forces MP Wahbi Qatisha demanded on Monday a “government outside the covenant,” saying that “Prime Minister Hassan Diab has brought the country to bankruptcy because those who appointed him — Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement– are the ones who run the government.”Qatisha said that “we support President Saad Hariri’s presidency of a non-partisan government,” stressing that “we will not be silent and we will press ahead with our demand, which is to change the government and form a government of independents.”“The current government is ineffective and there is no intention to reform,” Qaitisha added, warning that with the desire of some political players to expand control “things are heading for the worse.”

Lebanon's Rising Power Cuts Add to Gloom of Economic Crisis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
Lebanese are buying candles in bulk, turning to traditional kerosene lamps and throwing away rotten food because of prolonged power cuts that plunged the country into darkness this week, adding to the gloom of a deepening economic crisis.
The country's electricity company and the powerful operators of generators had been rationing power since late June as fuel supplies dwindle amid uncertainty over the next shipment.
“At home I can live with the candle, but in my clinic what can I do?” said Salim Abi Saleh, a gynecologist and the head of the physicians union in the northern city of Tripoli. Lebanon has been shaken by a severe economic and financial crisis, made worse in recent months by the coronavirus and lockdown restrictions. The financial crisis features a collapse of the local currency, which lost more than 80% of its value, and severe shortage of dollars — dramatically impacting the country’s ability to import basic goods. Fuel imports are subsidized, but lack of foreign currency was making it harder to secure resources. Government officials have promised new fuel shipments, including one due to arrive Tuesday.
But residents in parts of Lebanon reported nearly 20 hours of power cuts since last week. Some main streets have been lit only by commercial billboards, while others were left in pitch black. Flickering lights from candles were seen from windows, and Beirut's bustling nightlife has been cut short because of power outage and a dire economic crisis. In a worrying development, private hospitals in Lebanon on Tuesday said that they would reduce operations to emergency procedures, including kidney dialysis and cancer patients, because of dwindling resources, including fuel.
A day before, Lebanon's main hospital treating coronavirus patients, Rafik Hariri University hospital, said it was turning off air conditioning units in its administrative area and in certain corridors to reduce power use and ensure patients remain a priority. The hospital said it was operating at 85% capacity. The summer months in Beirut are known for high levels of humidity, so no electricity meant more people were sleeping on balconies and cool floors.
People have stocked up on candles, buying in bulk. Some artisans told local media there is a rush on buying traditional kerosene lamps. Lebanon has for decades struggled with power cuts and a huge public debt for the national electricity company that racks up a deficit of nearly $2 billion a year. The country's electricity infrastructure has been in shambles since the end of the 15-year civil war and conflict with Israel.
Lebanon has largely relied on fuel shipped in on floating boats from neighboring countries and imported diesel for the powerful generators cartel that provides for the incomplete national grid. But the rationing has been so severe that residents reported only a couple of hours of electricity per day in some neighborhoods. Generator providers shut down their machines to ration existing fuel. “There is no electricity. And the generator runs for two hours and then cuts for an hour. We have to throw out half of our products,” said Rabie al-Kardali, owner of a traditional beans and Hummus restaurant. Saleh, the gynecologist said he stored fuel that could last him for days, a habit learned from days of power cuts during the civil war that ended in 1990. “We are now living week by week but how long can that last?”Government officials are marred in corrupt fuel deals and a much-coveted reform of the electricity sector has been evasive. Meanwhile, generator providers have hiked their prices while some of the fuel was smuggle into Syria because it is more lucrative there. “Lebanon’s electricity policy has been inefficient and ineffective for decades — always on the brink of collapse, but staying afloat with last minute patchwork solutions," said Kareem Chehayeb, a Lebanese journalist and Nonresident Fellow at Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. “The economic crisis has made fuel imports more expensive causing a shortage, with external generator providers hiking their prices or seeking business in neighboring Syria," he said. “It is a wake-up call to decades of overspending and poor planning of a basic public service.”
Normally, Lebanon's electricity company can provide no more than two-thirds of the summer power demand. Lebanon's dire economic meltdown is rooted in decades of systemic corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon’s ruling elite, who critics say refuse to reform despite an uprising that erupted last October.

Lebanon: Berri Rejects Putting Economic Burden on Depositors
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri reiterated Tuesday that placing the burden of the financial crisis on Lebanese depositors is a “crime” that he rejects. “The cornerstone for soliciting outside help lies in the implementation of reforms and the restoration of confidence,” Berri said. He spoke during a meeting with a delegation of the economic bodies in Lebanon, headed by former Minister Mohammad Choucair at his Ain el-Tineh residence. The talks reportedly touched on the country’s financial and socio-economic conditions, as well as the demands of the production sectors. Berri said rescuing Lebanon and helping it out of its current crises can only be achieved through the solidarity of the Lebanese, stressing that the primary duty of any government is to work towards salvaging the country, especially in matters related to the security of the homeland and citizens, and to protect their livelihoods and savings. Berri’s comments came the same day Prime Minister Hassan Diab received a phone call from the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell, who expressed the EU’s concern over Lebanon. Diab and Borrell discussed the socio-economic conditions in Lebanon, negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, and the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate at the end of August. Diab raised the issue of the list of countries included in the travel restrictions adopted by the European Union on June 30, and the need to amend it soon, in light of the effective measures taken by Lebanon to contain the spread of the COVID-19 disease. He called for allowing Lebanon to make the list of countries allowed tourist entry. The Caesar Act and its implications for trade and transit through Syria, and the need to spare Lebanon the consequences of the new US sanctions were also highlighted. Diab drew to the attention of the EU official the danger of Israeli oil and gas exploration along Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone, stressing Beirut’s legitimate rights in its internationally recognized regional waters, the PM’s Press Office said in a statement.

Bukhari Hails Rai’s Calls to ‘Neutralize Lebanon’
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
Saudi Ambassador to Beirut Walid Bukhari hailed Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai’s Sunday sermon which focused on the importance of abiding to Lebanon's dissociation policy. The diplomat made his stance during a visit on Tuesday to the Patriarch at his summer residence in Diman, where they discussed the general situation and relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Bukhari said the Patriarch's remarks restored the Arab and international communities' faith in Lebanon. He also highlighted Saudi Arabia's willingness to support Lebanon. The Saudi Ambassador discussed with the Patriarch the social and humanitarian aid offered by “King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre.” Bukhari confirmed that this aid would continue with an aim to reduce the burden of the economic crisis on Lebanese citizens from all sects. On Sunday, al-Rai accused politicians of thinking only of their own vested interests and urged the president to “break the siege against the legitimacy” and declare Lebanon’s neutrality. After his meeting with the Saudi Ambassador, the Patriarch received a delegation from the "Strong Republic" parliamentary bloc, which informed him of the support of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to his stance. Speaking to reporters following the meeting, MP Shawki Daccache said Lebanon cannot overcome its economic, political and social crises unless it adopts a “dissociation policy.”“The Lebanese Forces similar to the Patriarch urges the president to break the siege against the legitimacy and announce Lebanon’s neutrality,” he said. Daccache indicated that the delegation presented the Patriarch with an invitation to chair the mass service commemorating the Lebanese Forces' martyrs. For his part, MP Marwan Hamade said at the Parliament Tuesday that Rai’s statements became a roadmap for the salvation of Lebanon.
“The Patriarch’s calls became clearer and more detailed,” Hamade said, indicating that Rai’s statements propose a roadmap for the salvation of Lebanon in its final borders, its historic value, its pluralism, its freedom of expression, its Arabism and its relations with the Arab and international communities, its constitutional institutions, and its absolute neutrality.

Lebanese Convicted of Financing Hezbollah in US Returns Home
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
A Lebanese businessman serving a five-year sentence in the United States for providing millions of dollars to the Hezbollah party arrived Wednesday in Beirut after his early release, local media reported. Kassim Tajideen was sentenced last year in a federal court in Washington for his role in a money laundering conspiracy aimed at evading US sanctions. He was arrested in Morocco and extradited to the US in 2017, where he was he was charged with laundering money for Hezbollah. There was no immediate comment from US or Lebanese officials on his early release. Lebanon' National News Agency reported Tajideen's arrival. A local Lebanese TV station, LBCI, broadcast a video taken with a mobile phone of his arrival at the Beirut airport. He stepped out of small jet, wearing a face mask as a necessary coronavirus precaution. The video shows a man rushing toward Tajideen, hugging him and stooping down to Tajideen's feet in celebration of his release. A Washington federal judge had ordered the release of Tajideen in May. The National, an English language newspaper in the United Arab Emirates, said the 64-year-old Tajideen was granted compassionate release due to health conditions and fears of coronavirus infections in prison. The US Department of Justice had contested the release. Tajideen was accused of conspiring with at least five other people to conduct over $50 million in transactions with US businesses, in violation of sanctions that barred him from doing business with US nationals and companies because of his support for Hezbollah. Washington has designated the Iran-backed Hezbollah a terrorist group. Tajideen pleaded guilty last December and agreed to forfeit $50 million. In March, a Lebanese military tribunal ordered the release of a Lebanese-American held in the country for nearly six months on charges of working for an Israeli-backed Lebanese militia two decades ago. Amer Fakhoury's release raised speculation that Tajideen may be granted early release in return. Fakhoury, 57, who had faced decades-old murder and torture charges in Lebanon, became a US citizen last year, and is now a restaurant owner in Dover, New Hampshire.

Nasrallah slams Israel’s annexation, threatens US ambassador to Lebanon
Jerusalem Post/July 08/2020
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah slammed Israel’s annexation plan on Tuesday evening, claiming it is the most dangerous thing in the whole of the Middle East. He called for support for Palestinians and mocked the US, claiming Hezbollah was becoming stronger under the administration of US President Donald Trump.Nasrallah pointed to success stories such as Venezuela, Cuba, Syria and North Korea as models for countries that resist the US attempt to “starve” people. The US has used sanctions to try to isolate the Syrian regime, destroying Syria’s economy. The US has also gone after Venezuela and Iran using various sanctions and methods. Hezbollah’s leader, who has spent most of the last decade and a half in a bunker since he launched a war on Israel in 2006, said the US was alienating allies. Recently in Lebanon, pressure has been put on the US and its embassy. A judge attempted to stop the US ambassador from being interviewed and a US helicopter helped airlift Amer Fakhoury to safety after he was detained in Lebanon in March. “Americans, you must understand your policy won’t weaken Hezbollah, it will strengthen it,” Nasrallah said. His speech was translated in tweets by David Daoud, an expert, who live tweeted it. Hezbollah provided its usual list of conspiracies to describe the region. Nasrallah claim ed the US was using Israel and “takfiris,” a reference to ISIS, against the “resistance” that Hezbollah offers. “The US commanded the 2006 Israeli war.” In fact, Nasrallah started that war. Nasrallah targeted the US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea in his speech, telling her not to go on Lebanese TV. He called on Lebanese people to ‘arise and defend themselves against her behavior.” This appears to be a clear threat against the US embassy. In the 1980s Iranian-backed groups bombed the US embassy and a Marine barracks. Hezbollah appears to be pushing for a crisis with the US by targeting the ambassador. Nasrallah has accused her of “inciting Lebanese parties.” He claimed the US has interfered in Lebanon, seeking to have certain appointments at the central bank. He called the US a “colonialist” country. “We saw ambassador Shea come to Lebanon, we welcomed here, but rather she has not adhered to diplomatic customs and is acting like a governor,” he said.
Nasrallah also delved into economics. He suggested that Lebanon’s economy is based on elites and luxury goods, tourism and bourgeoisie mentalities. He suggested the people must get back to the land and plant and turn the country to agriculture. He painted a picture of an agricultural pastoral Lebanon. He argued this would make the country self-sufficient and not force surrender to the US or others. He also suggested Lebanon buy fuel from Iran. Iran supports Hezbollah. He also praised Iraq, saying Lebanon could reach out to Iraq. Iraq is an ally of Iran.
Of lasting importance, Nasrallah also highlighted the importance of China. He said that the US was angry at the effectiveness of China. He argued for Chinese companies investing in Lebanon. It was time to initiative greater links with China. “We mustn’t fear America’s reactions.” The time to turn to the east had come. “We are not trying to impose the Iranian model or turn Lebanon communist. All we mean by turning eastward,” he said, was to accept offers from whoever will help. This was an important speech that sketches out a desire to remove the US from Lebanon, reducing the ambassador’s role and connecting more with China. It is part of a larger shift in the Middle East away from the US as the US influence appears to decline in the region.

Lebanon’s elites scramble to avoid the reckoning for its debt crisis
The government and the banks cannot even agree on the scale of the problem, let alone tackle it
David Gardner/Financial Times/July 08/2020
ديفيد كاردنر: النخب اللبنانية  تتدافع لتجنب أزمة الديون
In west Beirut last week, a desperate man shot himself dead. He was carrying a sign, quoting Ziad Rahbani, the Lebanese composer. “I am not an infidel”, it said. The song goes on: “Hunger is the infidel.” Another searing glimpse of despair, caught on CCTV and aired on TV, showed an armed man holding up a pharmacy — initially to steal infant formula rather than rob the till. One broadcaster prefaced newscasts with harrowing clips of food queues from Venezuela to Iran, asking viewers if this is the Lebanon they want. On its current course, that is where the country is heading.
The food queues in Lebanon are already appearing. The middle class, financially devastated before in the country’s 1975-90 civil war, is sinking once more.
Last year, the World Bank estimated 48 per cent of Lebanese live below the poverty line and that was before the full force of financial implosion and the economic wreckage of the coronavirus lockdown.
This year, talks between Lebanon and the IMF on emergency loans to rescue the country from a compounded debt, banking, fiscal and economic crisis have made no substantive progress after more than two months.
Unusually for a prostrate country forced to seek a bailout, there is no visible hostility towards the IMF. The Lebanese are reserving their anger for their corrupt political class — superannuated warlords and dynasts of the country’s 18 religious sects — and a bloated banking system that profited extravagantly from financing it.
Even though the government unanimously endorsed the 44th draft of its rescue plan at the end of April, it sent four delegations to the opening talks with the IMF. In lieu of serious negotiations, the fund found itself refereeing a tag-team wrestling match. There are now two main camps, which differ on how to add up the crippling debts that have bankrupted Lebanon. This is, of course, confusing.
The simplest explanation is that postwar Lebanon, propped up by funding from foreign grants and loans and inflows from the Lebanese diaspora to cover its huge current account deficits, lived far beyond its means. Its currency has been pegged unrealistically to the dollar since 1997. For 11 years, parliament did not pass a budget. For 15 years, the Banque du Liban (BdL), the oft-lauded central bank now at the core of this meltdown, did not publish its accounts. Almost 70 per cent of the assets of the banking system — which has deposits several times the size of the Lebanese economy — were lent to an insolvent state built on a sectarian spoils system.
In March, Beirut defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time. It is astonishing it was able to defy gravity for so long, except in terms of BdL policies. The central bank’s governor since 1993, Riad Salameh, kept attracting dollars from Lebanon’s diaspora and around the Middle East by offering ruinously high interest rates, latterly in double digits. He called this “financial engineering”. Many, including former ministers and central bankers, have called it a Ponzi scheme, given that he kept borrowing at ever higher rates from the same banks he was supposed to repay.
Depositors in Lebanese banks, where about three-quarters of deposits were in dollars, are being denied access to their savings, although billions were transferred abroad by the connected elites before the crisis took hold in October, bankers say. Market rates for the dollar early this week averaged 8,700 Lebanese pounds against an official rate of 1,507. This disparity is feeding galloping inflation; food prices have more than doubled since October.
The two camps, meanwhile, still cannot agree how to add up the country’s debts.
The government is in one camp. It was handpicked by the previous government toppled by mass protests in October. That was based on an alliance dominated by Hizbollah, the Iran-backed Shia politico-military movement.
This government says banks’ losses amount to a net $62bn (after their $21bn capital is wiped out) and BdL losses are close to $50bn. Taken together, this is more than twice the size of the economy.
But the banks, usually Sunni or Christian-owned and symbiotically tied to the political elite, say total losses are half this. Camille Abousleiman, who resigned from the previous government over failure to reform, says “It’s a bit like going to the doctor and being diagnosed with cancer and saying: ‘You know what, don’t call it cancer, let’s make it flu.’”
There is a genuine problem here over how fairly to share huge losses between the banks and BdL, the state and its public assets, and depositors who face a haircut. But the banks’ strategy is based on fantasy. Their liabilities were 80 per cent in dollars at the official exchange rate, but they prefer a more favourable rate.  They want to reduce their debt ratio through inflation that is devastating ordinary Lebanese. IMF estimates of bank losses are aligned with the government’s figures, officials say.
Lebanon’s elites have so often defied gravity in the past and remain insulated by their fabulous wealth. Perhaps that explains their otherwise inexplicable insouciance amid this deadly drama. It resembles a scrabble for deckchairs on the Titanic, enlivened only by occasional outbursts ordering the iceberg to get out of the way.

Lebanon as a Permanent Border Problem
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2020
In Lebanon, border issues do not stop at the borders. They are at the heart of the country’s internal policies, but also the heart of its residents’ sentiments and feelings.
This situation applies generally to countries in which these three qualities are found: recent establishment, internal strife and widespread anxiety about an unstable region. Lebanon is an archetypical model in which all three of these qualities are present. Thus, its positions on border affairs determine internal policies more than its internal affairs shape positions on borders.
Traditionally, some Lebanese groups have been known for fearing everything that comes from outside their borders, thereby linking the “army’s valor” with defending them. In contrast, other groups were known for being content with everything that came from the outside, until “eradicating the borders of Sykes-Picot” became a criterion for “heroism”. The former groups’ hearts beat for those who are far from their borders, seeking their help during crises and their arrival from across the seas and oceans to provide salvation. The second group fears these distant strangers to the “region” whose unity should not be undermined by borders.
Between the view that borders are fortresses that protect and the other that they are obstacles that hinder, interpretations proliferate and disputes intensify. Some say that the borders were instilled to mirror the ongoing differences among groups, while others see them as having created these differences and provided exacerbated them. In all likelihood, the truth lies somewhere between these two views, which are made more contentious by the fact that some read them as innocent texts while others read them according to intentions that lie between the lines.
Moreover, the national being of Lebanon has been linked, closely, to its borders. This happened in the very beginning, i.e. with the annexation of the “Four Kazas” (Rashaya, Hasbaya, Baalbek and Al-Muallaqa) to “Greater Lebanon” in 1920, and the controversy and tension that accompanied it. This border, though the names and addresses differ, nevertheless explains much of what is happening today between Lebanon and both Syria and Israel, whereby the former’s professed ideology explicitly calls for “eradicating the borders”, while the latter’s professed ideology refrains from defining the borders.
It also explains the existence of the two interrelated Lebanese problems at hand over both land and sea, i.e. the demarcation of the borders with each of these two difficult countries. Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem recently reiterated his rejection of this demarcation “because Lebanon is not an adversarial country”, knowing that he does not accept that the Lebanese demark their borders with Israel because the latter is the ultimate “adversarial country”.
Going further: some consider Lebanon itself to be a border that goes beyond the geographic space that the country occupies. It has long been described as a border between East and West, becoming a bridge in times of amity, and erupting like an earthquake in times of anger. This equation yielded a success that ran for nearly two decades and a semi-success which lasted for a few years.
With regard to Israel, the 1949 armistice agreed in Rhodes was accompanied by an economic boycott of the Jewish state. Thus, the southern border was settled and calmed down, while the port of Beirut avoided competition with the port of Haifa, and peace, stability and prosperity lasted nearly two decades.
Concerning Syria, while it had been part of the “United Arab Republic,” the famous tent meeting between Gamal Abdel Nasser and Fouad Chehab provided internal stability, but it did not come cheap: handing the country’s foreign policy decisions over to Cairo and ensuring the demise of those who opposed Nasserism (including Camille Chamoun and Raymond Edde) in the parliamentary elections. After 1967, Syria transformed itself into a source of fighters who declared their intention to liberate Palestine from Lebanon.
Since then, “civilizations” decided that they would not “cross-breed” and “dialogue”, Lebanon is no longer a bridge. Gradually, with some zig zagging, it became a seismic zone: it is the border between Syria and Israel. Perhaps the astuteness attributed to Hafez al-Assad stems precisely from this: that he reinvented Lebanon and turned it into a border that prevents direct confrontation with the “Zionist enemy”, and he treated those borders with a “brotherhood” that changed the meaning of the word.
Lebanon is the Iranian-Israeli border as well, a duty that Hezbollah has volunteered to up since its inception nearly four decades ago. It is doubtful that the recent frightening developments, the explosions at the Iranian Natanz reactor after the explosion of the military complex in Parchin, will lead to a termination of this volunteering role.
Above all else, we are living under the weight of two borders’ dimensions. First, the famous Shebaa Farms, the space of which does not exceed 40 square kilometers were brought back to our memory from the declaration of Ehud Barak, then Prime Minister of Israel, of his intention to withdraw, unilaterally, from Lebanon. Israel took this area, in 1967, from Syria, not from Lebanon. Today, it is demanded that Lebanon liberate it without Syria having acknowledged that it is Lebanese!
The other dimension is the crossings that are to remain open, and the Zabadani crossing, which Hezbollah controls, has recently been added to it from the Syrian side. The financial losses incurred because of these crossings are nonetheless a detail compared to their supposedly existential significance. We are promised war from the east and south, and those who do not fight us will be called upon to do so that we may liberate borders, to keep open the shop that is going under in every sense but, nevertheless, is not allowed to close.

The Lebanese state is going after social media activists
Aya Iskandarani/The National/July 08/2020
أيا اسكندراني/الدولة اللبنانية تستدف ملاحقة نشطاء االتواصل الإجتماعي
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/88059/aya-iskandarani-the-lebanese-state-is-going-after-social-media-activists-%d8%a3%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d9%83%d9%86%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84/
The authorities have arrested dissenters, while sectarian parties try to silence them with beatings and harassment.
Since last October, the people of Lebanon have been taking to the streets to protest against the dire economic situation and to call for an end to sectarian political rule and corruption in the country. In all this time, protesters' demands have largely remained the same but the government’s response has slowly shifted, no longer putting up with dissenting voices.
The government and party leaders have launched a campaign to clamp down on activists and demonstrators, especially those active online, eating away at basic liberties, such as freedom of speech and the right to protest peacefully.
This weekend, protesters in the Chouf area were assaulted by supporters of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who wields power over the region. Supporters of other traditional political parties, from Hezbollah to the Christian Lebanese Forces, have been assaulting anti-government demonstrators since October, without being held accountable.
In addition to these clashes, which have unfortunately become routine, there is a growing trend of using the state's security and legislative apparatus against activists.
Last month, activist Kinda Al Khatib was arrested along with her brother Bandar and taken to an undisclosed location. The arrest was not explained. It was only five days later that Al Khatib was charged with collaborating with Israel. In the meantime and before the charges were even made public, the hashtag “Kinda Al Khatib is a collaborator” started trending on Lebanese Twitter and was being used mostly by Hezbollah supporters. Her family told The National they believed that she was arrested for being a vocal online critic of Hezbollah and its political allies.
Collaborating with Israel is a serious offence in Lebanon. The two countries are still technically at war, although a truce has held since 2006. Ms Al Khatib faces jail time and ruin to her reputation.
The move has been decried by protesters as an attempt to silence critics of Hezbollah, especially as the charges held against Al Khatib, namely that she travelled to Israel via Jordan, do not seem to be supported by any evidence.
Ms Al Khatib’s detention is only the latest in a string of arrests targeting protesters and critics of Hezbollah and its allies. In April, demonstrators in Beirut and Sidon were arrested and reportedly tortured by internal security forces.
In the latter part of June, more than 50 activists in Beirut, Tripoli and Baalbek were arrested on charges of vandalism. The arrests have been denounced by a group of Lebanese lawyers as the “ruling elite’s continued scapegoating of protesters”, according to Megaphone, a citizen-journalist media platform.
The inspiration for the state's most recent clampdown on dissent may have come from prominent figures close to the Syrian regime within the new government. In the past month, Interior Minister Mohamed Fahmi, who was head of intelligence during Syria's occupation of Lebanon, told Hezbollah’s Al Manar television channel that he killed two people in 1981, and that Michel Aoun, Lebanon's serving President, protected him. His televised confession bears the signs of a warning.
In a similar fashion, Member of Parliament Jamil El Sayyed, who is aligned with Syria, told reporters that politicians should shoot at protesters demonstrating in front of their houses.
The clampdown has also, in part, been led by the Lebanese judiciary. Instead of safeguarding the rights of citizens and acting as an independent institution, some prosecutors have gone to great lengths to justify political arrests.
Lebanon's state prosecutor, for instance, called on the police to identify social media users who "insult" the president, a move that would make it easy to bring charges of slander and defamation against Mr Aoun's critics. Article 384 of Lebanon's penal code allows for those who "insult" the president, the flag, or the national emblem to be imprisoned for up to 2 years, although it is rarely enforced. This outdated law is now being used to go after those who criticise Mr Aoun.
As a result, activists such as Pierre Hashash and Michel Chamoun have been arrested for posts criticising Mr Aoun and his entourage. Prior to his arrest, Mr Chamoun posted a video on social media asking the President to stop going after those who criticised him and to think instead of the reasons why many Lebanese now disapprove of him.
Social media has become an arena where government supporters and pro-revolution users debate and clash. It is also a space that activists and civil society groups use to vent their grievances and to mobilise. Since the early days of the October movement, dozens of pro-revolution pages have popped up on Instagram. Facebook is used to plan demonstrations and activists have made their demands heard through Twitter hashtags. The political elite, especially those currently in power, seek to dominate this virtual public space – to prove they still enjoy a popular following. But most importantly, they want to quell dissent.
Last week, Dorothy Shea, the US ambassador to Lebanon, commented on Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s current crisis in a televised interview. In response, a judge from the southern city of Tyre banned her from talking to local media.
While Lebanese leaders have devoted considerable effort to stifling dissent, the same cannot be said of their work toward resolving the country's dire economic situation. Over the past couple of weeks, Lebanon’s financial crisis has spiralled out of control. The Lebanese pound, still officially pegged at 1,517 to one dollar, is now approaching 10,000 to the dollar on the black market. The prices of necessities have skyrocketed while the minimum wage, which was roughly equivalent to $450 (Dh1,652) previously, is now valued at less than $80.
Sixty per cent of Lebanese will be destitute by the end of the year, according to the World Bank. And with borders closed due to the coronavirus pandemic, there is a growing fear among citizens of being trapped in a permanent state of crisis.
The country’s wartime elite has remained in power for 30 years, a time during which living conditions have severely deteriorated. Now, the Lebanese people are witnessing their lifelong savings melt, while their leaders remain impassive.
On top of that, the right of the people to vent their frustrations – online and offline – is now under threat. Amid hyperinflation, power cuts and worsening conditions, the clampdown is only likely to intensify as it becomes more difficult for Lebanon’s political elite to spin the narrative in its favour.
*Aya Iskandarani is a staff Comment writer at The National

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 08-09/2020
Canadian MP Erin O'Toole  running for PM pledges to move embassy to Jerusalem
Jerusalem Post/July 08/2020
Canadian MP Erin O'Toole made a pledge that if he were to become the next prime minister of the Great White North, that he intends to move the Canadian Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. He noted that doing so is in line with proper Canadian values, adding that he will stand up for Canada's allies - to which he specifically mentioned Israel. "I'm a proud Conservative and firmly believe in a principled approach to foreign policy - one that builds on our values and interests as a country," O'Toole said in a video posted to his official Facebook page. "This approach has made me a resolute and strong friend to Israel."He continued by noting that during former conservative prime minister of Canada Stephen Harper's tenure in office, Canada was known to be a staunch supporter of the Jewish state and "trustworthy friend" to Israel. "Sadly, under Justin Trudeau, that strong support has weakened and wavered," he added. "We need a principled Conservative leader who will once again ensure Canada stands with our friends and allies like Israel." O'Toole drafted a portion of the Conservative Party position under the notion that Canada will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. "I launched the policy as the shadow minister for foreign affairs and was so very proud when our party overwhelmingly adopted the position at our Convention in Halifax," O'Toole noted.  "Jerusalem is the eternal capital of the Jewish people, and the modern presence there just cements this," he added. "The Knesset, the Supreme Court and foreign ministry are all in west Jerusalem. I believe that we also need more presence on the ground there, and I want us to explore more exchanges and collaboration with Israel to partner, much like we do with our other close allies." While O'Toole supports a two-state solution, he noted that it shouldn't prevent Canada "from doing more with our friend and ally, Israel." "As prime minister, I will follow through on our policy and move our embassy," O'Toole continued. "Unlike [Trudeau], who changes his mind, and views Canada as a neutral country, I don't waver when it comes to our allies and our values, I will defend our decisions and restore our international reputation.""We will restore a proud and strong Canada on the world stage - one that stands with our friends and allies around the world, including our great friend Israel," he concluded.

Hezbollah media: Hamas arrests ISIS cells operating for Israel
Jerusalem Post/July 08/2020
Hamas arrested several Salafi "elements" in the Gaza Strip under suspicion of operating for Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar (The News) reported early Wednesday morning.
According to a "security source" cited by Al-Akhbar, Hamas' security services uncovered a "dangerous plan" of Israeli intelligence "working under the cover of ISIS-affiliated cells," aimed at "directing security strikes to government and military infrastructure." The Salafi cells allegedly planned to carry out suicide bombings in the Gaza Strip targeting "strategic systems in the resistance." Hamas reportedly entered a "second-degree emergency" after the interrogations of those arrested allegedly concluded the plan to carry out the strikes would "be implemented soon." The strikes, according to the source cited by Al-Akhbar, were to be carried out by operatives on motorcycles, similar to previous ISIS attacks against Hamas infrastructure in the strip. Last August, Hamas arrested an ISIS cell for directing a series of suicide bombings against Gazan police. The IDF denied having had any involvement in the Gazan attacks, according to Walla, as the Hamas-controlled Gazan Ministry of Interior claimed the bombings took place shortly after a Hamas skirmish with IDF troops. In October, Hamas blamed Israel for "getting to youth with extremist Salafi thoughts," contacting and directing them to carry out suicide attacks against Hamas targets in August, according to Al-Akhbar. The Gazan Ministry of Interior reportedly issued a statement over the weekend, saying Hamas forces "discovered suspicious movements of a number of people," beginning "extensive investigations" leading to their arrests over the following days.  The suspects, the Hezbollah-affiliated news outlet reported, were "in the process of carrying out other sabotage actions against the resistance with direct follow-up from the intelligence of the occupation."On Monday, Arab media reported Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has called on Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to "unite ranks" in efforts to thwart Israel's expected annexation of areas in the West Bank.

Turkey Keeps Prominent Opposition Figure Detained
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
A Turkish court has decided to release former co-chair of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (HDP) Selahattin Demirtas, upholding the Supreme Constitutional Court’s decision. However, it kept him detained and rejected an appeal for his release, noting that the Constitutional Court’s decision on June 18 to set him free “pertains to a separate investigation against the politician.”One of Demirtas’ lawyers, Mahsuni Karaman, said that the Turkish authorities’ continued detention of his client is based on political motives. A recent Constitutional Court ruling has said that Demirtas’s lengthy imprisonment violated the Constitution. Demirtas, one of Turkey’s best known politicians, has been in jail since November 2016 on terrorism-related charges along with the HDP’s other co-leader, Figen Yuksekdag. They are accused of taking part in the bloody October 2014 attacks, in which demonstrators were protesting the failure of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government to take a clear stance against ISIS, which occupied Kobani, the Kurdish-majority city in northern Syria. He was sentenced in 2018 to four years and eight months in prison on charges of spreading “terrorist propaganda” during a speech at a Kurdish New Year celebration in 2013. He faces a sentence of up to 142 years in jail if found guilty in the main case against him. Meanwhile, signs of a new division within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have recently started to appear. This was revealed in a tweet by one of Erdogan's former aides, which sparked questions and speculation in the Turkish media about the possibility of the formation of a third party headed by AKP former members in just one year. An AKP leader and one of Erdogan’s media advisers Aydin Onal wrote on his Twitter account that he has rented an office in Ankaraqq with some of his associates. He called on everyone to visit them, which the media interpreted as a first indication of the emergence of a third party, following Ali Babacan’s Democracy and Progress Party, also known as DEVA.

Italy Mulling to Exclude Huawei from 5G
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
Italy is considering whether to exclude Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei Technologies from building its 5G network, La Repubblica reported, without citing sources. Despite pressure from Washington, which says Huawei's equipment could be used to spy on the West, Italy has so far not ruled the Chinese company out its network plans. No comment was immediately available from the Italian government, Reuters reported. Huawei, which has repeatedly denied the US allegations, declined to comment.
A political source said the issue was under discussion. "It's being considered at government level," the source told Reuters on Wednesday after the La Repubblica report, which said Italy's Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio met the US ambassador in Rome last week for talks which included Huawei.
"The Italian government is preparing a change of course as are many of its European partners," the newspaper said, adding that Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri and Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini had brought up the issue informally.
"Guerini is certainly the one taking the most Atlanticist line," the political source told Reuters. Even members of the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement, part of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's ruling coalition, who initially favored Huawei, were rethinking, La Repubblica said. It said Italian officials believed that even if Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden wins the November presidential election, Washington's stance on Huawei was unlikely to change. Last year, parliamentary security committee Copasir said Italy should consider blocking Chinese telecoms firms Huawei and ZTE from taking part in development of 5G networks. Enrico Borghi, a member of the committee, told Reuters the fact that Italy was likely to use resources from the planned EU coronavirus Recovery Fund to develop its network meant a clear position was needed to exclude Chinese firms from the network.
"All the conditions are there to build 5G networks at European level without using Chinese technology," he said.

Hamas, Fatah to Agree on 'Popular Resistance'
Ramallah- Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
Hamas is ready to reach an agreement with Fatah movement on the details of a “comprehensive mass popular resistance” to deliver a message to the occupation that Palestinians are united and have the right to resist.
Hamas politburo member Hussam Badran said that a comprehensive popular resistance is an idea that deserves implementation and follow-up. “We are sending a message, first and foremost, to the occupation: we are united; even if there are disagreements here and there, they are superficial and normal.”
Badran was speaking during a joint interview with Fatah Central Committee member Ahmad Hilles on Palestine TV, and announced that both movements maintain daily contact and seek to work jointly in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and abroad to implement the needed resistance to confront the Israeli plan.
Badran's appearance on the official television and announcement of a comprehensive popular resistance with Fatah marks an important shift in the movement's policy, which has long refused to recognize popular resistance as an approach. The official stressed that his movement is ready to reach a Palestinian national consensus to confront plans and conspiracies according to mechanisms to be agreed upon in various arenas. “Our people have an enormous amount of skepticism with regard to the potential for national unity. Previous attempts did not end up having an impact on the ground,” admitted Badran. However, he indicated that this time both are determined to take gradual steps and build confidence with the people, whether in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip. Badran said that Hamas’ duty is to support Fatah, vowing to stand by the movement in face of the occupation. The announcement also enhances recent contacts between the two movements after they declared they were setting their differences aside and looking forward to a new stage to confront the Israeli plans to annex part of the West Bank. Meanwhile, Hilles indicated that the daily meetings between the two movements resulted in the joint conference. He noted that the leaderships of both Fatah and Hamas are aware that real and serious steps must be taken in this critical stage. Hilles also announced that both Hamas and Fatah aim to reach complete Palestinian unity, adding that the joint committees are working together to confront the occupations’ plans. “Our people have been and continue to be skeptical, and they’re justified in that. Is this time different? We say yes,” Hilles said. He stressed that division will cost more than reconciliation, stressing that the Palestinian people is united in the face of occupation. Last week, member of Fatah's Central Committee Jibril al-Rajoub and deputy chief of Hamas politburo Saleh Arouri held a joint press conference via video conferencing announcing that the two movements are ready to reach a national agreement, including the types of struggle and resistance against the Israeli annexation plan. The conference, which was announced just a few hours before it was held, was a surprise to the Palestinians as well as the Israelis, after many previous attempts at rapprochement were unsuccessful. These recent developments constitute a turning point in the Palestinian struggle against Israel’s annexation plans, however, it remains unknown whether they will lead to a broader agreement ending the division.

US condemns assassination of Iraqi researcher al-Hashemi, says Pompeo
Reuters/Wednesday 08 July 2020
The US strongly condemns the assassination of the Iraqi researcher Hisham al-Hashemi, who had written about politics, ISIS, and the role of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says.

Iraq should hold Iran-affiliated militias accountable for killing Iraqis: US analyst
Lauren Holtmeier, video by: Omar Elkatouri, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 08 July 2020
Hisham al-Hashemi, who was assassinated in Iraq on Monday, was well-respected in Washington, DC policy circles and “he made us all smart in Washington, DC and across the region” Michael Pregent, a senior fellow at the US Hudson Institute told Al Arabiya. Al-Hashemi was killed outside his home in Iraq’s capital Baghdad earlier this week, and prior to his death he had received death threats from Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah. Al-Hashemi was a well-known Iraqi researcher and authoritative voice on Sunni extremist groups including ISIS and frequently consulted media and foreign governments on domestic Iraqi politics and armed Shia groups. “It’s a big loss, and it’s a mistake to kill al-Hashemi,” Pregent said. “The Prime Minister [Mustafa al-Kadhimi] should do something about this, but it will be very revealing when he can’t because of the Council of Representatives and the pressure from Iran.”Iraq has struggled for years to quell Iranian influence in the country and reign in Iran-backed militias.
Iranian influence in Iraq
“The Popular Mobilization Forces are legitimate part of the Iraqi government, and yet they answer to Tehran,” Pregent said. “The US should use its leverage here and deny Baghdad funding… to get Baghdad to do something about Iran and its militia problem.” When al-Kadhimi became prime minister in May, he was chosen in part for his promise to limit access weapons to individuals within the government and hold accountable those who had killed protesters during previous months of unrest. To date, over 600 protesters have been killed in Iraq. “Now, when I say put Baghdad in disfavor, that doesn't mean putting Iraqis in disfavor, we need to support the sheer youth movement. We need to support our Sunni allies, and Al Anbar, Salah ad Din and Nineveh province. We need to support our Kurdish allies,” he said. “We need to look at Iraqis – 80 percent of which are opposed to Iran's interference inside of Iraq – and get serious about our leverage and get serious about human rights violations.” Pregent also said that Lebanon, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah supported al-Kadhimi, as did Esmail Ghaani, the new head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “They're the ones responsible for the decisions Prime Minister Kadhimi is making, because at the end of the day, they picked Prime Minister Kadhimi because they weren't afraid of him,” Pregent said. “And the United States needs to wake up and start paying attention.”The presence of these militias in Iraq violates Iraqi and international law, Pregent said. He concluded that Iraq should hold these militias accountable for killing Iraqi protesters and they should go after “the individuals that look the other way, while these militias killed Iraqi protesters.”“Now there's an assassination campaign against influencers, like Hisham and other journalists and other people that have pretty much put a spotlight on Iran's interference in Iraq.”

Killing of Iraq's Hashemi Stirs Fear of New Violent Phase
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
The killing of security expert Hisham al-Hashemi has stirred fears Iraq is entering a dark and violent phase, as boiling tensions between pro-Iran factions and the government reach new heights. Hashemi, 47, was gunned down outside his home in east Baghdad late Monday by masked assailants on motorcycles.
While the perpetrators remain on the run, experts say the death signals a dramatic turn for political violence brewing since mass protests erupted in October. "Armed forces of various affiliations have killed protesters and others willing to publicly criticize the government and armed forces with impunity," said Belkis Wille of Human Rights Watch. "But killing someone of his stature smacks of a country where some groups have become so emboldened by the complete impunity for serious abuses, that they can kill anyone they want to without paying a price," he said. Over the course of years, Hashemi had developed a vast network encompassing top decision-makers, former militants, and rival political parties, often mediating among them. His exceptional access had granted him a level of protection, those close to him said, but the balance started to tip in October. His support for popular protests against a government seen as too close to Iran infuriated Tehran-backed factions in Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) military network. Hashemi skirted threats to mediate between protesters and senior government officials, even as activists were fatally shot outside their homes and dozens more abducted. "The parameters changed starting in October. There was a new modus operandi, and a shift in the confrontation with pro-Iran factions," said Adel Bakawan, an Iraqi expert who knew Hashemi.
- 'Won't be the last' -
Other experts say the real turning point was in January, when a US strike on Baghdad killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and Hashed deputy head Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Hardline factions within the Hashed, particularly those close to Iran like Kataeb Hezbollah, vowed revenge against both the US and its allies inside Iraq, whatever the cost. As someone with close ties to foreign governments, Hashemi was seen as a potential target, and he left Baghdad for a few days in late January, he told AFP at the time. "Hisham was aware that things had shifted," said Renad Mansour, a researcher at London-based Chatham House who worked with Hashemi for years. "The killing of Abu Mahdi unleashed all of these groups that he had been trying to control and centralize. We're still feeling the shock waves," he said. Hashed al-Shaabi itself published a statement mourning Hashemi's murder.
"We demand security forces follow up on this crime and catch the terrorist group that assassinated Hashemi," it said. Within the network, Kataeb Hezbollah has accused then-spy chief Mustafa al-Kadhimi of complicity in the deadly strike and deeply opposed his rise to Iraq's premiership in May. Hashemi had advised Kadhimi for years, a relationship that put the expert in "danger" when the former intelligence head became premier, those close to him said. In recent weeks, Hashemi had been particularly critical of rogue elements of the Hashed and had received threats from at least two hardline factions, his associates said. His family, meanwhile, said he had been threatened by ISIS. "For the first time since 2003, there is a sacred alliance between the government and an influential group of intellectuals. Now, people who are both symbols of the protests and the government are being targeted," said Bakawan, who knew Hashemi personally. "This may be the first prominent figure killed but it won't be the last. There are other names on this blacklist," he added.
- 'Suicidal mission' -
Kadhimi has pledged to hold Hashemi's killers to account, and swiftly sacked the police chief in the Baghdad district where the expert was killed. But there is little hope for real accountability. Less than two weeks ago, Kadhimi ordered the arrests of Kataeb Hezbollah fighters who were allegedly preparing a rocket attack on Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, home to the US embassy and other foreign missions. But within days, all but one of those detained were released and their faction even pledged court action against Kadhimi. Hashemi's killing appears to be a new challenge, said Iraqi politician Raed Fahmi. "This is a political assassination that represents both the silencing of freedom of speech, and a challenge to the government, its prime minister and any reform plan," he said. Other Iraqi activists told AFP they had long feared being targeted for speaking out against Iran-backed groups. "This could have been any one of us. Our friends have already been notified to leave immediately," said Omar Mohammad, a historian who documented atrocities in Mosul under IS.
"If Kadhimi will not take a strong step, civil life in Iraq will vanish. But I'm afraid he won't do it. It's a suicidal mission," he told AFP.

Mounting Anger in Turkey after Losses in Watiya Raid
Ankara – Saeed Abdulrazek
Turkey released maps of the deployment of allied Government of National Accord forces in Libya towards the coast city of Sirte. It also released maps of the deployment of the Russian Wagner Group forces in the north African country. The development took place amid mounting anger in Turkey after the air raid that heavily damaged its air defense systems in the western al-Watiya airbase in Libya. The maps showed Wagner forces deployed at the Sharara oil field, al-Houn, the Tamanhint (Sabha) airbase, al-Jufra base and Sukana. They also showed the GNA forces and militias advancing towards Libyan National Army (LNA) positions at the Gharibya airbase near Sirte and al-Jufra base in the south. In Ankara, Turkish sources confirmed the authorities’ extreme anger over the raid against the Watiya base and the damage inflicted on Turkish air defense systems. Turkish officials warned that the attack will escalate the conflict in Libya. Turkey, however, will exercise caution before pointing blame over the raid, said the sources, but they speculated that the incident will not pass without retaliation. Turkish media quoted a military official as saying that the attack was a “grave mistake that will not go unpunished.” He added that Dassault Mirage 2000 jets likely carried out the strike. Observers linked the operation to Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi’s declaration that Sirte and Jufra were “red lines” for Cairo. They also noted that it took place shortly after a French frigate under NATO command tried to inspect a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship suspected of smuggling arms to Libya in violation of a UN embargo. The French armed forces ministry said the frigate was harassed by three Turkish navy vessels escorting the cargo ship.

Assassinations Target Maher Assad’s Associates in Syria
Damascus - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 8 July, 2020
The past two weeks in Syria have witnessed the assassination of eight military officers in mysterious circumstances.
The latest target was Nizar Zeidan, the head of a militia that is affiliated with the Fourth Armored Division, which is led by Maher Assad, the brother of Syrian president Bashar Assad. He is just the latest in a string of assassinations that have targeted figures who are close to Maher. On Saturday, Ali Jumblat, Maher’s aide in the Fourth Division, was killed by a sniper shot in front of his home in Yaafour. Head of the air intelligence division in the eastern region and a close associate of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, Jihad Zaal, was killed along with several of his companions, in an attack on his vehicle on the Deir-Ezzour-Damascus highway overnight on Saturday. On Sunday, air intelligence official, Thaer Kheir Bek was killed by a sniper in front of his home in Damascus. Later that day, Zeidan was killed in a car bombing in the Wadi Barada region.
The assassinations were followed by clashes between rival factions in the Daff al-Shol region south of Damascus. Media sources in Damascus speculated that they were fighting over shares of financial levies. On July 1, a close associate of Maher and a member of the Fourth Division, Maan Idris, was shot dead in front of his home in Damascus. Two days earlier, Sumer Deeb, an investigator at the notorious regime-run Sednaya prison, was killed by a sniper in front of his home in the capital. On July 2, Haitham Othman, of the military engineering academy, was declared dead. Reports speculated that he died from the coronavirus. Since the eruption of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Maher’s Fourth Division has managed to control the so-called “shadow economy” in the country. He has seized customs directorates, set up checkpoints on trade routes and border crossings, and managed smuggling networks that are run by various affiliated militias. Syrian opposition activists Kamal al-Libwani linked Jumblat’s assassination to Italian authorities’ recent declaration of the discovery of a captagon drug shipment from Syria. Authorities seized 84 million pills, weighing 14 tons and worth nearly a billion euros in what one of the biggest busts on record. Germany’s Der Speigel reported on Saturday that the shipment belonged to Samer Kamal Assad, one of Bashar’s closest associates. It refuted Italian authorities’ claims that the shipment was being smuggled by ISIS.
Samer Kamal Assad owns a captagon manufacturing factory south of Latakia. It is just one of such facilities that are run by the Assad family.

Trump: 'I Disagree' with Fauci on COVID-19 in the U.S.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 08/2020
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he disagrees with the assessment of the country's top immunologist, Anthony Fauci, on the dire situation the United States faces as cases of the novel coronavirus continue to spread. "The current state is really not good," the highly respected Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a Facebook and Twitter livestream on Monday. "We are still knee deep in the first wave" of COVID-19 infections," he said. Trump, speaking Tuesday in a TV interview, disagreed with Fauci, a key player on the White House's own Coronavirus Task Force. "I think we are in a good place," the president said in an interview on the "Full Court Press" news show hosted by a former Fox News anchor, adding: "I disagree with him." "Dr. Fauci said don't wear masks, now he says wear them," he continued, adding that the immunologist has "said numerous things" that according to Trump were bad advice. "So we've done a good job. I think we are going to be in two, three, four weeks, by the time we next speak, I think we are going to be in very good shape," Trump added. The United States has fared poorly in its handling of the pandemic, with more than 130,000 people losing their lives, the highest death toll in the world by far. Currently there is a surge of cases in the south and the west after regional officials began to relax restrictions. Trump has downplayed the ever-rising number of daily cases, blaming them instead on increased testing. The U.S. is currently testing some 600,000 people a day, according to the COVID Tracking Project, but even this is deemed insufficient by health experts because of the very high rate of positive cases being found. On Tuesday federal officials said they would offer free COVID-19 testing to people without symptoms to stem a surge of cases in three southern hotspots.

Russia, China Veto U.N. Extension of Cross-Border Aid in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 08/2020
Russia and China have vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have extended authorization for cross-border humanitarian aid in Syria for a year, though Moscow swiftly proposed a more limited extension. Germany and Belgium, two of the council's non-permanent members, had drafted the resolution, which would have allowed aid to continue to pass through two points on the Turkish border without interference from Damascus. Beyond Russia and China, the other 13 council members voted to approve the draft, the diplomats said.
During negotiations, Moscow had asked that the extension be limited to six months, rather than a year, and that it only be allowed at one border crossing, not two, they said. "The draft resolution has not been adopted," Germany's U.N. ambassador Christoph Heusgen, the acting president of the body in July, confirmed in a letter to Council members. Immediately after the vote, Russia proposed its own draft resolution. Obtained by AFP, it repeats the call for a six-month extension, underlines the improvement in the delivery of humanitarian aid under the control of the Syrian regime, and excludes one of the two entry points into Syria -- Bab al-Salam -- from the mechanism. The results of a vote on that resolution will be known on Wednesday. Authorization for cross-border humanitarian aid has existed since 2014, with periodic extensions. The latest extension expires on Friday. Tuesday's vote was the 15th time that Russia has used its veto since the start of the Syrian war in 2011, and the ninth for China. They argue that the U.N. authorization violates Syria's sovereignty, and that aid can increasingly be channelled through Syrian authorities. Western nations and the U.N. secretariat however insist that cross-border aid is the only credible option, and that relief supplies would face multiple obstacles if they had to pass through Damascus' control. The veto was an "extremely negative development," one European diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
"They want to strangle the population even more," the diplomat said, adding that aid "cannot reach the population from one" crossing point. "Insisting on only one crossing point is cynical and it doesn't meet the needs of the people," the source said.
The Bab al-Hawa crossing point allows for shipments of humanitarian aid to the three to four million people living in the opposition-held Idlib region. The International Rescue Committee quickly condemned the veto. "Blocking access to food, health care supplies, vaccines, and ventilators is unacceptable anytime but in the year of COVID-19, it is even more reprehensible," said IRC president David Miliband in a statement.
'People are suffering'
After the vote, China explained that it too was in favor of maintaining the cross-border authorization. Its veto is due to the refusal of Germany and Belgium to take into account its request for a statement condemning the unilateral US sanctions imposed on Syria, Chinese diplomats said. In January, Moscow, Syria's closest ally, succeeded in having the crossing points reduced from four to two and in limiting the authorization to six months instead of a year, as had been done previously. In a report in late June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a one-year extension of the use of the two crossing points. Guterres said that since 2014, 4,774 trucks have used the Bab al-Salam crossing and 28,574 have used Bab al-Hawa. According to a report published by the UN in Geneva on Tuesday, the humanitarian situation in Idlib province is disastrous. "Syria's economy is devastated," said Hanny Megally, one of the authors of the report. "The country has been in a nine-year conflict. People are suffering."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 08-09/2020
Hisham al Hashimi and the Premonitory Assassination
Charles Elias Chartouni/July 08/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني: هاشم الهعاشم والإغتيال التحذيري
The clashing interpretations of H. al Hashimi assassination in Baghdad is less mysterious than purported to be. A vocal critique of Sunnite and Shiite radicalism and the overpowering influence of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, he seems to be the ideal target of all political factions opposed to Iraqi normalization and regained political autonomy vis a vis Iranian Suzerainty. His assassination is a crude message conveyed to the new prime minister, Mustapha al Khadimi, who is pursuing an idiosyncratic path away from the conventional subservience to Iran displayed by the previous cabinets. The moderate and independent profile featured by al Hashimi, a close confidant to the current prime minister, is seemingly disturbing the Kataeb Hezbollah pro-Iranian militias determined to preempt the progressive Iraqi emancipation from Iranian power orbit. His open support to the reformist and Iraqi nationalist demonstrations of last fall 2019, made him an elective target to the pro-Iranian militias commissioned with the perpetuation of Iranian political influence at the very expense of a working Iraqi statehood.
This ostentatious political crime sends an outright message to prime minister al Khadimi and his acolytes: limited sovereignty and political subservience are the cost to be defrayed for the maintenance of a degree of formal Iraqi stateness. This strategy follows a script set by Iranian power politics throughout the region: formal statehood and systemic subservience to Iranian power politics. The cases of Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq are quite illustrative of a systematic political strategy pursued and brutally enforced throughout the regional political spectrums.
The checkmating of the Iranian power drive impels the destruction of this geopolitical continuum and its manifold operational platforms, if the region were to oversee a normalization process based on geopolitical stabilization and enduring peace scenarios, rebuilding of Statehood matrices, and working interstate relationships. By and large, the political assassination strategy instrumentalized by Iranian power politics is no hazard, it’s part of the political narrative and betrays the inability of the Islamic regime to reform itself, address the shortcomings of failed governance, and rehabilitate its decaying ideological legitimacy. Violence all across the board is no hazard, it’s the raw expression of a failing dystopia trying to forestall its self destruction.

Bargaining for Idlib
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 08/2020
I was going to write about national day celebrations in America last week in the shadow of our health, social, political, and economic crises. However, there is an urgent Syria humanitarian file that will reach decision at the United Nations this week that must be my priority. On July 10 the United Nations Security Council resolution that permits delivery of humanitarian assistance from Turkey into Idlib will expire. The Security Council must vote in favor of a new resolution in order for the United Nations to continue to coordinate the delivery of the aid. Now about three million Syrian civilians in Idlib receive food and medical supplies through two border crossings from Turkey under the supervision of the United Nations. Secretary-General Guterres and many countries support an extension of the program and also the reopening of a border crossing in Hassakeh for the delivery of medical supplies there to contain the coronavirus.
The humanitarian situation in Syria is deteriorating. According to the United Nations humanitarian aid office, food prices have tripled this year. The number of Syrians in all the country who need food assistance has grown from 7.9 million to 9.3 million this year. The coordinator for the United Nations humanitarian assistance program, Imran Riza, said at the end of June that malnutrition is becoming worse and worse, including among children. In addition to the food is a crisis, there were 372 coronavirus cases recorded officially in all of Syria on July 6. The World Health Organization said in reality the true number is certainly much higher and even the official numbers are now growing fast. There are shortages of medical supplies and testing equipment so containing the virus will be very difficult in the best circumstances.
In Brussels on June 30 twenty-six countries pledged another 7.7 billion dollars for humanitarian aid to Syria. Moscow didn’t participate in the conference and it didn’t give new humanitarian assistance but it wants to direct who receives the aid. Russian diplomats in New York are threatening to halt the United Nations program to deliver vital supplies into Idlib. Moscow prefers that all the humanitarian assistance go through the United Nations center in Damascus where the Syrian government could control which towns receive aid and which towns receive nothing.
The Russian efforts to strengthen Syrian government control of all humanitarian aid is part of Russia’s diplomatic campaign to normalize the Syrian government’s political and economic relations with the Middle East and Europe. Moscow wants Damascus to be the only Syrian partner for all assistance and reconstruction issues. Moscow also wants to bring down (isqat) the Western sanctions on Syria. It claims Western sanctions impede humanitarian assistance to Syria. It is true that despite claims by Washington and Brussels, the sanctions in reality do deter some banks from undertaking any project financing in Syria, including purchase of humanitarian supplies. The bureaucratic routine to obtain exceptions from the sanctions is long and uncertain.
But as journalists, officials from the United Nations, and non-government organizations have explained in detail the biggest humanitarian aid problem is Syrian government manipulation and corruption. If Russia stops the UN delivery program from Turkey into Idlib, it won’t be sanctions that stop new aid to Idlib; it will be Syrian government actions. Already there are reductions in delivery of medical supplies into Hassakeh because the Russians succeeded last December in halting the UN program at the Yaroubiyeh border crossing from Iraq.
In New York this week Washington should have a simple message: if Moscow uses its veto to stop an extension of the UN coordination of aid into Idlib, all American aid to the UN program in Damascus will stop. I hope Washington is urging Europe to give the same message to Moscow. Russia would then be responsible for feeding the roughly six million who live under Assad’s control who need assistance. US and European aid could focus on Idlib and the five million Syrian refugees outside Syria. If Russia will not concede, the Americans and Europeans will have to replace the coordination and logistical role that the United Nations plays in Idlib. This will be difficult but it is possible with time and Turkish help. The Americans and Europeans must start preparing now because the Russian pressure will not end. They also need empowered offices that can issue exceptions to the sanctions in order for humanitarian organizations to buy supplies quickly. And they need to work with humanitarian organizations to establish a reliable project monitoring mechanism under protection of the Turkish military in Idlib. The Syria crisis will not end in 2020, and we need to consider how to preserve the humanitarian aid program from Russian attack.

The Covid Surge Will Slam Southern States’ Economies
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July 08/2020
Coronavirus is exploding in big southern US states such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona. This entirely preventable disaster will have devastating consequences for these states’ economies.
The outbreaks that slammed the Northeast and much of the Midwest in the spring are now mostly under control. But in much of the South and the West, the virus is now on the rampage. Hopes that the summer sun would suppress the disease have been dashed -- in fact, by driving people inside to mingle in air-conditioned spaces, the heat may be facilitating the spread. This was a human blunder. Leaders such as Texas governor Greg Abbott and Florida governor Ron DeSantis started reopening their state’s economies in early May, long before the threat of the virus had passed. And many voters scoffed at the threat of the virus; some even loudly disdained the practice of mask-wearing.
Fortunately, death rates are not yet as high as they were during the epidemic’s Northeastern wave -- possibly because society is doing a better job of isolating the old and vulnerable, possibly because treatments like dexamethasone are saving the lives of the critically ill. But even those who survive the virus often suffer severe long-term health problems. In any case, the economies of states like Florida and Texas are going to take a big hit. Research shows that fear of coronavirus, rather than lockdown policies, is responsible for the vast majority of the economic impact of an outbreak. This will be true of the new wave as well. Already, restaurant reservations -- an early bellwether of virus avoidance behavior -- are falling in the new epicenters.
The obvious losses will accrue to local service businesses -- restaurants, bars, brick-and-mortar stores. But the hit to tourism could be even more damaging. The industry is Florida’s largest, accounting for an estimated 11% of the state’s gross domestic product. . Although less famous for beaches and amusement parks, Texas took in $164 billion from tourism in 2018 (more in dollar terms than Florida’s $112 billion). Arizona and Southern California also depend a lot on the sector. All these places will suffer, as their names become more associated with uncontrolled disease than with sunshine and fun.
Health care is another vulnerable Sun Belt industry. Hospitals and medical offices are some of the most obvious places to catch coronavirus, so people suffering non-life-threatening problems or needing routine care will tend to stay away. The sector generates about $150 billion a year in Texas and $132 billion in Florida, and has recently been the single biggest driver of job growth in Arizona.
These tentpole industries are important because they bring in outside dollars. Reduced tourism echoes through a state’s economy, as fewer tourist dollars mean less spending by locals. Less health care spending hurts cities, as fewer people drive in from surrounding towns to see the doctor. Reductions in tax revenue hurt education, infrastructure, transportation, and everything else state and local governments spend money on.
It’s important to reiterate that these economic losses will not stem from lockdown policies. Even if Florida chooses to keep Disney World open, people will be scared to go there. Allowing routine medical procedures won’t make hospitals any less terrifying.
Instead, the losses are the direct result of a failure to control the virus itself. Texas, Florida, Arizona and California have lagged badly in terms of hiring contact tracers, so they can’t use test-and-trace approaches to contain the pandemic. They also have avoided strict mask requirements in public places, despite masks being proven to reduce spread. And they opened restaurants, bars, and other high-risk crowded indoor spaces too soon. Thus, when the economic hit comes, they will largely have themselves to blame.

Farrakhan's Threats for Advocating Vaccinations
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/July 08/2020
For anyone who has followed Farrakhan's hate-filled career — praising Hitler, calling Jews termites, calling Judaism a gutter religion, attacking gays — the content of any Farrakhan speech comes as no surprise.
Farrakhan — like Nazis and Communists — has a First Amendment right to tell his lies and spread his hate. But no media has an obligation to promote or disseminate his bigotry.
Nor does it demand silence from responsible Black and Muslim leaders, whose voices should be heard condemning Farrakhan's devaluation of Jewish lives, gay lives, and the lives of people suffering from Covid-19.
Under the principles espoused in Brandenburg v Ohio and other leading cases, "advocacy" of violence is constitutionally protected but not "incitement " to "Imminent lawless action." The line between advocacy and incitement has not always been easy to draw.
In his July 4th hate-filled anti-American rant, Louis Farrakhan singled out this author for condemnation and threats for writing an article urging people to take a Covid-19 vaccine if a safe an effective one were developed.
The article also stated that mandatory vaccinations to prevent the spread of a highly contagious lethal disease was held constitutional by the Supreme Court and would likely be upheld by the current Court. This comment led Farrakhan to say the following:
"So Mr. Dershowitz, if you bring the vaccine and say you're going to bring your army to force us to take it, once you try to force us, that's a declaration of war on all of us. You only have this one life; fight like hell to keep it and fight like hell to destroy those whose heart and mind is to destroy you and take your life from you."
Although the threat is not direct, that is the way Farrakhan incites violence against specific Jews and the Jewish people. In the same speech, he calls the head of the Anti-Defamation League Satan. And then says, "When you see Satan pick up a stone as we do in Mecca." This constitutes an even more direct threat of violence. He then tells his listeners that the Jewish Talmud urges Jews to poison non-Jews, and that he himself was poisoned.
In the most irresponsible proposal in a screed filled with irresponsibility, Farrakhan warns black people not to take any vaccine developed by Americans such as Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci: "Do not take their medications."
"They're plotting to give 7,500,000,000 people a vaccination. Dr. Fauci, Bill Gates, you want to de-populate the earth. What the hell gives you that right? ... You're sure to die now. They want a quicker death."
Farrakhan also admitted that he asked God to make Florida the epicenter of Coronavirus and spewed other nonsense about Covid-19.
For anyone who has followed Farrakhan's hate-filled career — praising Hitler, calling Jews termites, calling Judaism a gutter religion, attacking gays — the content of any Farrakhan speech comes as no surprise. What is surprising is that otherwise responsible media promote and carry Farrakhan's incitements to hatred and violence. This speech was promoted in advance and carried live by the Revolt TV YouTube channel. It was reportedly watched more than 800,000 times.
Farrakhan — like Nazis and Communists — has a First Amendment right to tell his lies and spread his hate. But no media has an obligation to promote or disseminate his bigotry. Fox Soul TV was within its rights, and was right, when it cancelled Farrakhan's appearance. Revolt TV should have done the same. Let him spew his hatred on street corners or in his place of worship. The First Amendment rightly demands that, but it does not demand widespread media promotion and coverage. Nor does it demand silence from responsible Black and Muslim leaders, whose voices should be heard condemning Farrakhan's devaluation of Jewish lives, gay lives, and the lives of people suffering from Covid-19.
All people of good will should condemn and marginalize one of the world's most dangerous bigots. No responsible media should promote his hate speech. And when his poisonous rhetoric turns to incitement of violence against specific individuals, then investigation for direct incitement of violence — which the Supreme Court has ruled is not protected by the First Amendment — may be warranted. Under the principles espoused in Brandenburg v Ohio and other leading cases, "advocacy" of violence is constitutionally protected but not "incitement " to "Imminent lawless action." The line between advocacy and incitement has not always been easy to draw. Moreover, media that have policies against promoting violence should determine whether Farrakhan's statements violate those policies. Farrakhan should be judged by the marketplace of ideas, and his "ideas" should be rejected as tainted and poisonous products.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law Emeritus at Harvard Law School and author of the book, Guilt by Accusation: The Challenge of Proving Innocence in the Age of #MeToo, Skyhorse Publishing, November 2019. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

A Conversation with Daniel Pipes
Gregoire Canlorbe/Gatestone Institute/July 08/2020
"Trump came to office with minimal knowledge of the outside world, just impressions and emotions. He also lacked a philosophy or a network.... Fortunately, some of Trump's instincts are solid, for example, as concerns China, Iran, Israel, and Venezuela, and he does not get intimidated by the Establishment consensus." — Daniel Pipes.
"Antisemitism long ago moved in the main from the Right to the Left; Jeremy Corbyn has no conservative counterpart. These days, mainstream conservative parties are more philosemitic than antisemitic. Leftists keep trying to turn conservatives like Victor Orbán into antisemites but that is silly." — Daniel Pipes.
"But that improvement [of the position of Christians and Jews in the Muslim world] lasted only so long as the Europeans remained. When they left, the status of Jews and Christians fell far below what it had traditionally been. About 95% of Jews that lived in Muslim-majority countries have already fled; Christians are not far behind." — Daniel Pipes.
Daniel Pipes is an American historian and president of the Middle East Forum. His writing focuses on Islamism, the Middle East, and U.S. foreign policy. His archive is at www.DanielPipes.org
Canlorbe: Do you expect the George Floyd protests to leave, in the American collective memory, a mark comparable to the September 11 attacks and the Vietnam War?
Pipes: The great question is: Will the current lurch to the left be temporary or permanent? I worry it is permanent because liberals are capitulating to progressives as never before. Will that trend continue or end? It is hard to forecast when very much in the moment.
Canlorbe: Donald Trump's foreign policy is often praised as dismissing nation-building in favor of short-term intervention, economic asphyxiation, and striking a deal with US enemies. How do you assess Trump's approach? Do you subscribe to John Bolton's criticism?
Pipes: Trump came to office with minimal knowledge of the outside world, just impressions and emotions. He also lacked a philosophy or a network. The result has been haphazard. Bolton saw this from close-up and was understandably appalled. Fortunately, some of Trump's instincts are solid, for example, as concerns China, Iran, Israel, and Venezuela, and he does not get intimidated by the Establishment consensus. So far, anyway, no catastrophe.
Canlorbe: You present "moderate Islam" as the solution to militant Islam. How do you account for the Republic of Turkey leaving behind its founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's vision of moderate Islam and its sinking into Islamism under its current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan? Do you see a parallel between Atatürk and the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overturned by an Islamist revolution?
Pipes: Logically, no alternative to radical Islam exists other than reform Islam. But there is nothing inevitable about its success. Specifically, the tragedy of Turkey resulted from Atatürk's ideas becoming ossified, with few developments and no excitement. The final shah's father resembled Atatürk much more than did his son.
Canlorbe: Will right-wing parties in the West be "undemonized" by rejecting anti-Semitism? Or will they continue to be perceived, no matter what they do, as anti-Semitic?
Pipes: Antisemitism long ago moved in the main from the Right to the Left; Jeremy Corbyn has no conservative counterpart. These days, mainstream conservative parties are more philosemitic than antisemitic. Leftists keep trying to turn conservatives like Victor Orbán into antisemites but that is silly.
Canlorbe: When Jews were treated as dhimmis [tolerated second-class citizens what had to pay protection tax] under Islamic law, some managed to reach influential positions in Muslim society— such as Maimonides, who served as Saladin's physician, or Hasdai ibn Shaprut and Samuel HaNagid who filled high political positions. How do you assess the fate of Jews in the contemporary Muslim world?
Pipes: The position of Jews and Christians dramatically improved after the colonial powers broke the dhimmi status in the nineteenth century. But that improvement lasted only so long as the Europeans remained. When they left, the status of Jews and Christians fell far below what it had traditionally been. About 95% of Jews that lived in Muslim-majority countries have already fled; Christians are not far behind.
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Al-Hashemi's killing is a warning of a further security upheaval in Iraq
Mona Alami/Al Arabiya/July 08/2020
The killing of analyst Hisham al-Hashemi in Baghdad yesterday is a great loss for Iraq. Al-Hashemi, one of Iraq’s last independent thinkers received threats prior to his death from pro-Iran Kata’ib Hezbollah. His assassination is a warning that a further security upheaval awaits Iraq, similar to what Lebanon faced in 2005 following the assassination of journalist Samir Kassir. The arrest and prosecution of al-Hashemi’s killers will ultimately be a litmus test for new Prime Minister Mustafa al-Khadimi in terms of his capability to crack down on Iraq’s powerful and unruly militias.
Al-Hashemi who was gunned down in front of his home, was one of the last analysts who had the courage to warn, from Baghdad, about the dangers of the continuous fragmentation of the state, its corruption, and the threat posed by militias operating outside the state’s control. In the last few months before he was killed at gunpoint, he told me that he had received threats from pro-Iran militias.
I met Hisham during my trips to Iraq, and he was such a generous person with his time and with his knowledge; he always had a smile on his face and faith in his country. He spoke with kindness and courage when I knew him.
A week before his killing, he also shared that he had received death threats from pro-Iranian Kata’ib Hezbollah.
The killing of al-Hashemi is a stark reminder in many ways of what Lebanon went through 15 years ago after the Kassir’s killing in the wake of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, for which members of another pro-Iran militant group, Hezbollah, are currently under prosecution.
Kassir was a staunch opponent of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon and of its pro-Syrian and Iranian cronies, despite his support of what was known until 2000 as the Lebanese resistance. Iraq is today, like Lebanon at the time, at another dangerous security crossroad that could affect country’s future. In the last few months, thousands of Iraqis have stood up against the corrupt Iraqi regime, with many asking for an end to Iranian hegemony, like the Lebanese who rose up against Syria in 2005.
Across Iraq, Iranian consulates have been destroyed by angry protesters, including Basra and Najaf, both Shia strongholds. Over 600 protesters have been killed, while activists and journalists who denounce the government and demand pro-Iran militias be put in check have disappeared or been assassinated, including journalists Ahmad Abdel Samad and Safaa Ghali in the city of Basra.
Ultimately, the assassination of al-Hashemi, a former government adviser who had the ear of al-Kadhimi cannot be disconnected from the recent clamp down undertaken by the premier against pro-Iran militias.
Late last month, the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service carried out an operation against Kata’ib Hezbollah and accused the group of plotting another round of rocket attacks targeting the Green Zone and Baghdad International Airport. Iraqi security forces arrested militants and confiscated Katyusha rocket launchers.
It can also be seen as a direct message to al-Khadimi that more assassinations are to come if the premier does not realign with his original promises by holding early elections, and more importantly, if he continues to make changes regarding the Popular Mobilization Units, specifically the factions that are backed by Iran. A recent Iranian Mehr report underlined Iranian concerns saying that “the new PM is putting obstacles in front of Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi [PMU], make [sic] the US forces move comfortably in Iraq without pressure. Moreover, he is making mysterious and suspicious changes in the Iraqi security structure,” the article read referring to the appointment of Major General Abdul Ghani al-Asadi as head of the National Security Agency.
Like in Lebanon, the post-2005 Iran and its cronies will eradicate any thinkers or charismatic leaders willing to challenge their clout. It remains to be seen if al-Kadhimi will rise up to the challenge. The arrest of al-Hashemi’s killers will be his quintessential test. However, if al-Kadhimi does go after al-Hashemi’s murderers, more Iraqi blood is likely to be spilled at the hands of Iran as a new tug of war emerges between al-Kadhimi and Iran’s militias.

Betting on the Iraqi army
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/July 08/2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s firing of National Security Agency head Faleh al-Fayyad, who is known for his close ties with Iran, is a very important development on the Iraqi scene.
At the same time, Kadhimi ordered the formal separation of the position of head of the National Security Agency and national security adviser. Fayyad had a monopoly on both positions, which had prompted Iran to consider him for prime minster of Iraq. Kadhimi’s moves, however, constitute another notch on the scale of wrestling power in Iraq from Iran’s grip, especially in the management of the security apparatus, which not so long ago was completely under Tehran’s control.
There is evidence that the dismissal of Fayyad is a positive development. The new head of the National Security Council is Lieutenant General Abdul Ghani al-Asadi, a career officer in the Iraqi Army. Asadi participated in the Iraq-Iran war between 1980 and 1988, but on the Iraqi side this time, and not like many other post-regime change officials who were loyal to Iran instead of their home country.
It is clear, however, that Kadhimi is not completely free of the usual pro-Iran restraints. The evidence of this is his appointment of Former Interior Minister Qassim al-Araji as national security adviser. The problem with someone like al-Araji is that he belonged to the Badr Brigade, one of the militias affiliated with Iran whose leading members had returned to Baghdad from Tehran on the back of an American tank in 2003.
Fayyad was an important figure in the Iraqi system. In addition to serving as both head of the National Security Agency and a national security adviser since 2014, he has also chaired the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) since 2018. This authority is nothing less than a bunch of sectarian militias known to be loyal to Iran.
It is no secret that the PMF has been an Iranian project from the beginning. Its aim has always been to establish an Iraqi regime similar to that of the “Islamic Republic” in Iran, where the real authority is in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which in turn gets its orders directly from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s ambition was, and still is, for the PMF to become a branch of the IRGC in Iraq so that Iraq becomes a true Iranian colony. But this is exactly what an overwhelming majority of Iraqis are rejecting, including Arab Shias who rose up late last year and virtually toppled the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi.
Even though they paid a heavy price, they nevertheless proved that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis reject Iran’s guardianship in all its forms. The best proof of this rejection was the burning down of the Iranian consulate in Najaf and forcibly countering Iranian attempts to impose a pro-Tehran prime minister to replace Abdul-Mahdi.
Kadhimi’s battle to wrestle back the Iraqi state from the clutches of Iran’s proxies is still in its infancy. He is advancing sometimes and retreating at other times, as happened when he had members of the pro-Iran Kata’ib Hezbollah militia arrested and then released. These individuals had in their possession missile launchers they intended to use against various American targets in Baghdad.
Fayyad’s dismissal was certainly a big bite out of Iran’s influence inside Iraq. But it is evident that Tehran still holds plenty of playing cards in the country. This is why we see persistent Iraqi efforts to restore to Iraq the institutions of the Iraqi state.
No sane person will deny that Iran and its expansionist project are shrinking daily. This is not only due to the loss of the infamous Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force who was assassinated soon after his arrival at Baghdad airport with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the PMF, but there is also another factor that plays a role in making the 2020 Iran different from the one that had full control over Iraqi decisions, especially in the security sector.
There is no longer an Iranian High Commissioner in Iraq. The last time Esmail Qaani, Soleimani’s successor, visited Baghdad, he had to secure a visa to enter the country. In other words, Qaani does not have Soleimani’s capacity to impose his will on Iraq and manage its affairs. He does not have his network of personal relationships with the leaders of the sectarian militias that make up the PMF and does not speak Arabic. But most important of all, Iran has begun showing its truly weakened state after US sanctions seriously damaged its economy.
We can soon be surprised to learn that the fires and explosions that recently targeted certain strategic sites in Iran were important messages telling Iran that it won’t be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and that the days of the administration of former US President Barack Obama are over, whether Donald Trump remains president or not. It is not a necessary condition that Iran must first regress for Iraqis to recover their country. Surely, other great challenges stand in the way of Kadhimi’s government. At the forefront of these challenges is the miserable economic situation that the country has reached in the shadow of corruption and its dependence on oil and nothing other than oil. In addition, there is a need for the Iraqi government to revive the one thing with which it can face up to the PMF, which aspire to replace the Iraqi armed forces, namely the Iraqi army that the Americans committed the crime of dissolving in the wake of their 2003 occupation of Iraq.
The PMF are currently plagued by deep internal divisions, especially in light of their Iranian master’s disability, marked by Tehran’s inability to fund certain Iraqi militias who survive on Iranian handouts, and by its inability to force the Iraqi government to provide more funds for sectarian militias. Could this important development signify the beginning of the rehabilitation of the century-old Iraqi military institution, and what that means in terms of the impossibility of any coexistence between the sectarian militias and this venerable institution?
There is no place for any sectarian militia in a country that respects itself and wants to be a state. We have an example of that in the events rocking Lebanon right now, where a longstanding civilised and modern country is collapsing because of Hezbollah and its weapons. Can Iraq do better than Lebanon? All indications are that it can succeed in getting rid, albeit with difficulty, of Iran’s illegal weapons, but the biggest problem will remain rampant corruption and Kadhimi’s government’s ability to come up with a viable economic plan to restore Iraq’s dignity.
This would be possible if the military establishment ultimately settles the situation in the interest of Iraq first and foremost … and not in the interest of Iran’s interests in Iraq. So, who then in Iraq will have the upper hand in the end to rescue the country from the disastrous effects of illegal weapons? And is betting on the Iraqi army to do just that still possible?