LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 07/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Be angry but do not sin; do not let the sun go down on your
anger, and do not make room for the devil
Letter to the Ephesians 04/25-32:”So then, putting away falsehood, let all of us
speak the truth to our neighbours, for we are members of one another. Be angry
but do not sin; do not let the sun go down on your anger, and do not make room
for the devil. Thieves must give up stealing; rather let them labour and work
honestly with their own hands, so as to have something to share with the needy.
Let no evil talk come out of your mouths, but only what is useful for building
up, as there is need, so that your words may give grace to those who hear. And
do not grieve the Holy Spirit of God, with which you were marked with a seal for
the day of redemption. Put away from you all bitterness and wrath and anger and
wrangling and slander, together with all malice, and be kind to one another,
tender-hearted, forgiving one another, as God in Christ has forgiven you.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on July 06-07/2019
LDP Member Killed in Qabrshmoun Clashes Laid to Rest
AlRahi following the Pope's signing of Patriarch Hoayek's honoring decree: Pride
of Lebanon, the Maronite Church and the Patriarchate
Arslan at the funeral of Samer Abu Faraj: We are against sedition, but those who
harm us must pay the price
Berri, cabinet ministers, dignitaries congratulate Saad on his election as SNSP
Chief
Report: Cabinet Meeting Pending Qabrshmoun Case
Bassil Says To Tour All Lebanese Regions: Lebanon Must Not Be Divided into
Cantons
Campaign Continues in Lebanon to Remove Illegal Electricity Connections
Sami Gemayel: Authority members and their interests are on one planet, while the
Lebanese citizen with his concerns is on another planet!
Fares Saad elected as new SNSP Chief
Shehayeb from Maarab: Everyone is keen on activating government's role, Mountain
reconciliation is constant
Australian Minister visits Maronite Archdiocese in Deir ElAhmar
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on July 06-07/2019
Iran to raise uranium enrichment, announce more nuclear deal reductions
Iran dismisses reports about seizure of a British oil tanker in Gulf
Iranian cleric: Britain should ‘fear’ Tehran’s reaction to tanker seizure
Iranian official: Iran will punish Britain for detaining tanker
US welcomes deal to end unrest in Sudan
Sudan protesters cancel marches in wake of agreement
Regime Bombings Kill 14 Civilians in Northwest Syria
Syria Kurds host conference on ISIS detainees
Top Official Says Iran Ready for Higher Uranium Enrichment
UN Calls for Libya Ceasefire as Death Toll Climbs to 1,000
20 civilians killed in northwest Syria: monitor
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on July 06-07/2019
US and Iran: What is NOT a Smart Policy/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July
06/2019
Strategic chaos has taken Iran to the brink of disaster/Raghida Dergham/The
National/July 06/2019
Britain caught between a US rock and a Chinese hard place/Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/July 06, 2019
Why Iran’s nuclear blackmail gambit will fail/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/July
06, 2019
Trump’s traveling circus is in need of a lion tamer/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/July 06, 2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on July 06-07/2019
LDP Member Killed in Qabrshmoun Clashes Laid to Rest
Naharnet/July 06/2019
Lebanese Democratic Party member, Samer Abi Farraj, who was
killed in Sunday’s Qabrshmoun clashes, was laid to rest on Saturday in his
hometown of Baalchmey. Abi Farraj and another man, Rami Salman, were killed in
armed clashes in the Aley town of Qabrshmoun when the convoy of State Minister
for Refugee Affairs Saleh al-Gharib was passing through Aley. Both men were
bodyguards of the Minister. Salman was laid to rest on Friday in his hometown of
Ramlyieh. Abi Farraj’s body was moved from the Bshamoun hospital to his hometown
in the morning on Saturday where hundreds of mourners gathered to pay their
condolences. On Sunday, Progressive Socialist Party supporters (of ex-MP Walid
Jumblat) closed roads in Qabrshmoun to prevent Foreign Minister and Free
Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil from touring the region. An armed clash
erupted between the convoy of al-Gharib and the people who were closing the road
to prevent Bassil from passing. Two guards were killed and one person was
critically injured. The two parties have traded blame over the incident, with
Gharib and Arslan describing it as an ambush and Jumblat's Progressive Socialist
Party accusing the minister's bodyguards of forcing their way and opening fire
on protesters.
AlRahi following the Pope's signing of Patriarch Hoayek's
honoring decree: Pride of Lebanon, the Maronite Church and the Patriarchate
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bshara Boutros al-Rahi, declared Saturday from
Bkirki that Pope Francis had decided to consecrate the life of virtues of the
late Patriarch Elias Boutros al-Hoayek (1843-1931) by signing a decree to honor
him. Speaking at a press conference held at the Patriarchal Edifice earlier
today, al-Rahi said: "The great Patriarch Elias Hoayek, Father of Greater
Lebanon, has been honored by His Holiness the Pope - a source of pride for
Lebanon, the Maronite Church, the Patriarchate and the Sisters of the Sacred
Holy Family he founded - declaring that he has lived in heroism of divine,
human, moral and social virtues." "We are pleased today to announce this news
not only to Lebanon and the Maronites, but to all the Lebanese and all Maronites
in the world and all Christians," added al-Rahi, deeming it a dedicated act for
Lebanon at a time of difficulties witnessed at the national level, whether
politically, economically, socially, financially or security-wise. "We hope
today that this new blessing from heaven to our land would be an incentive for
us to live in hope, faith and love, and that it would be an incentive for all
Lebanese, Maronites and Christians, especially all politicians, because the
Patriarch is the one who fought for Lebanon and wrote about the understanding of
the nation," the Patriarch corroborated.
Arslan at the funeral of Samer Abu Faraj: We are against
sedition, but those who harm us must pay the price
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Lebanese Democratic Party Leader, MP Talal Arslan, attended the funeral of Samer
Abu Farraj, personal bodyguard to State Minister for Displaced Affairs Saleh Al-Gharib,
who was shot dead last Sunday in the village of Qabrshmoun in the district of
Aley. In his speech at the funeral, Arslan said: "Yesterday we buried Martyr
Rami Salman and today we bid farewell to our Martyr Samer Abu Faraj, but that
does not mean that their case will be buried."In this context, Arslan called on
"the Judicial Council, which is an integral part of the Lebanese judiciary, to
be responsible for protecting the country's security and stability." He added:
"We do not support sedition, but those who attack us have to pay the price."
Berri, cabinet ministers, dignitaries congratulate Saad on his election as SNSP
Chief
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Syrian National Social Party [SNSP] disclosed in a statement this afternoon that
the Party's newly-elected Head, Fares Saad, received many congratulatory calls
following his election, most prominently from House Speaker Nabih Berri, who
wished him all success in his new endeavor and hoped that the Party would
persist in its luminosity and brilliance. Among the new Chief's congratulating
officials was also State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Mahmoud Qomati,
State Minister for Foreign Trade Hassan Mrad, former Minister Ncoula Tueni,
former Deputy Bassem el-Shab, alongside various other party figures and
cultural, social and media dignitaries and representatives.
Report: Cabinet Meeting Pending Qabrshmoun Case
Naharnet/July 06/2019
The calls to refer the Qabrshmoun incident to the Judicial Council weighs
heavily on the government's possibility of convening in a session anytime soon,
al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. The contacts have not yet succeeded in
removing the obstacles hindering the Cabinet from meeting, unnamed ministerial
sources told the newspaper. They pointed out that the contacts have intensified
between political and official authorities on Friday but the main obstacle they
faced was an insistence on referring the Qabrshmoun incident to the Judicial
Council. The government is divided over that, said the sources. “It is
impossible for the ministers to convene under these circumstances because this
division may lead to a major clash within the government and could lead to a
serious crisis,” they said. “The ordinary judiciary is capable of fully playing
its role to unveil the circumstances of the crime,” asserted the sources, adding
that "this insistence falls in the context of political investment and attempt
of some parties to score political and populist goals.”The Lebanese Democratic
Party of MP Talal Arslan has been demanding the referral of Sunday’s incident in
the Aley town of Qabrshmoun to the Judicial Council. Two bodyguards of State
Minister for Refugee Affairs Saleh al-Gharib (of the LDP) were killed Sunday in
an armed clash with Progressive Socialist Party supporters in Qabrshmoun. Four
other people were wounded.
Bassil Says To Tour All Lebanese Regions: Lebanon Must Not Be Divided into
Cantons
Naharnet/July 06/2019
Foreign Minister and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Saturday
visited the northern city of Tripoli and met with FPM supporters in the Rachid
Karameh International Fair despite controversy over his trip.Bassil’s visit,
part of a tour he has been taking the latest of which triggered deadly armed
clashes in the Aley town of Qabrshmoun, primarily intended to meet with people
of Tripoli. But plans were changed and the minister only met with FPM partisans
and supporters for what the said were “security reasons.”“For security reasons
we have chosen to limit the meeting with supporters and FPM partisans in
Tripoli,” said Bassil in a speech he made at the meeting. “We will not accept
that Lebanon becomes divided into cantons,” he said, stressing that he “will pay
a visit to all the Lebanese regions.” Bassil expressed “appreciation” for those
who demonstrated “peacefully” outside the Forum against his visit to the city.
Campaigners protesting against Bassil’s visit have gathered meters away from the
Forum where the Minister was delivering his speech. Escalating rhetoric against
parties he did not name but in an apparent jab at the Progressive Socialist
party of Druze leader and ex-MP Walid Jumblat, Bassil said: “We were not the one
to wage the battles in the Mountain or Tripoli. We have always stood by the
Lebanese army against militias.” On Sunday, Bassil visited the Aley town of
Qabrshmoun in Mount Lebanon. Progressive Socialist Party supporters (of Druze
leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat) closed roads to prevent Bassil from touring the
region. An armed clash erupted between the convoy of minister of refugee affairs
(an ally of Bassil) and the people who were closing the road to prevent Bassil
from passing. Two guards were killed and one person was critically injured.
Campaign Continues in Lebanon to Remove Illegal Electricity
Connections
Naharnet/July 06/2019
Energy Minister Nada al-Bustani on Saturday said the ministry is completing its
campaign to remove all encroachments on the power grid that continues in Baalbek
on Saturday. “It is an ongoing campaign that will cover Lebanon entirely. There
are no restricted areas,” she said. Bustani was asked about a decision taken by
the Cabinet to also remove encroachments in the encampments of Syrian refugees
substituting that with a new procedure to pay bills in an organized manner.
“This does not fall under the legislation of the Syrian presence in Lebanon, but
the Electicite Du Liban can not leave chaos in this form,” she explained noting
that the measures are undertaken in cooperation with donors parties. Bustani
arrived in the city of Baalbek on a tour to remove violations in the areas of
Baalbek, Deir el-Ahmar and Brittel.
Sami Gemayel: Authority members and their interests are on
one planet, while the Lebanese citizen with his concerns is on another planet!
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Lebanese Kataeb Party Head, Sami Gemayel, criticized Saturday the State's ruling
authority, saying via his Twitter account that "the various parties of power and
their personal interests and trivial intimidations are on one planet, while the
Lebanese citizen, with his concerns and ambitions for Lebanon, is on another
planet!" He ended his tweet by vowing to "continue in our change approach and
sticking to our positions, in the service of Lebanon and the Lebanese."
Fares Saad elected as new SNSP Chief
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
The Syrian National Social Party [SNSP] elected Saturday in a meeting by its
Higher Council Fares Saad as the Party's new head to succeed Hanna el-Nashef,
who recently resigned from his post as Head of the Party.In his word following
the election and oath-swearing of the new Party Chief, Higher Council Head MP
Asaad Hardan delivered a speech in which he stressed that "the Council, in line
with its constitutional responsibilities, was keen on conducting the
constitutional process in accordance with the relevant Party laws, ensuring the
Party's supreme interests so that it can continue to perform its national duties
and defend the interests of the nation and society."He added: "Once again, the
Syrian National Social Party proves that it is the party of institutions
embodied in ideology and order, distinct and unique in its approach and
democratic performance, and devoted to the democratic rotation of power." "We
are a party that bears its full responsibilities towards our people and in
defending our country, facing all dangers and challenges...We are the party of
struggle and we form the national plan against the Zionist enemy and all forms
of terrorism, and we are the party of national unity in the face of
sectarianism, division and strife," Hardan underscored. In turn, the
newly-elected Party Leader Saad thanked all those who invested their trust in
him, vowing to pursue the path towards stronger internal solidarity and maximum
positive interaction between the legislative and procedural authorities within
the Party.
"I assure you that we are concerned with our Party's organizational,
constitutional, political, economic and cultural priorities. Therefore, as a
unified, responsible command, we will have the task to eliminate all obstacles
that can hinder our determination to go on with a new momentum and in a
stimulating, healthy environment," emphasized Saad.
Shehayeb from Maarab: Everyone is keen on activating
government's role, Mountain reconciliation is constant
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Higher Education Minister, Akram Shehayeb, ruled out Saturday that the cabinet
has entered into a state of paralysis, asserting that all parties are keen on
activating its role in light of the pressing economic and financial conditions
witnessed in the country.
Shehayeb's words came following his visit to Lebanese Forces Party Chief Samir
Geagea in Maarab this afternoon, accompanied by a Progressive Socialist Party
delegation. He described the hour and a half meeting with Geagea as "falling
within the normal framework of ongoing positive communication with various
partners and guardians of the Mountain reconciliation." He stressed that any
political tampering with the Lebanese Mountain is futile and will lead to
nowhere, emphasizing that the Mountain reconciliation is stable and profound.
"We had a tour d'horizon touching on the general situation in the country and
the recent incidents in the Mountain region," he added, noting that they shared
common views on the matter and coordination is ongoing between them. Shehayeb
stressed in response to a question that PSP Chief and partisans are advocates of
cooperation and an "extended hand" policy, based on the rules and principles of
reconciliation. He added: "What happened in the Mountain was unfortunate, but we
all remain under the rule of law and security and the state that is the guardian
of all its citizens...We are with security and stability in all of Lebanon!" On
the subject of appointments, the Minister said: "We are waiting for the cabinet
to convene."
Australian Minister visits Maronite Archdiocese in Deir
ElAhmar
NNA - Sat 06 Jul 2019
Archbishop of Baalbek-Deir El-Ahmar region, Hanna Rahme, received on Saturday
Australian Minister of Municipalities in Victoria, of Lebanese origin, Marilyn
Tony Keirouz, who visited him at the Maronite Archdiocese in the presence of
"Strong Republic" Parliamentary Bloc Member, MP Antoine Habshi, and Deir El-Ahmar
Municipalities Union Head Jean Fakhry, and several other dignitaries from the
region. In his welcoming word, Archbishop Rahme expressed Lebanon's pride in
having such successful emigrants in their countries of residence abroad. He
commended Minister Keirouz for her political achievements and position as an
Australian cabinet minister and member of parliament while maintaining her
loyalty to her roots and mother language, and continues to encourage foreigners
to visit Lebanon. In turn, MP Habshi considered that the Lebanese Diaspora is
fundamental and essential for Lebanon, especially that Lebanese emigrants hold
their mother country in their hearts and minds and never forget their roots. He
hoped that "this interactive relationship between Lebanese expatriates and their
motherland will be preserved and that this communication will remain within a
practical program that is beneficial to the region and to our people in Lebanon,
Australia and all the countries of the Lebanese Diaspora." For her part, the
Australian Minister expressed her joy to be visiting Lebanon for the first time
and enjoying its natural beauty and the warm hospitality of its people and
family. "I wish all the best for the region of Deir El-Ahmar and Archbishop
Rahme, who is distinguished by his vitality and development aspirations, and
certainly the Lebanese community in Australia will not hesitate to help our
Archdiocese...The people of the community are generous and love to see their
country Lebanon flourish and develop," Keirouz asserted.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
July 06-07/2019
Iran to raise uranium enrichment, announce more nuclear deal reductions
Agencies/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Iran will announce on Sunday that it will raise its uranium enrichment level to
5%, a concentration above the limit set by its 2015 nuclear deal with six major
powers, an Iranian official told Reuters. “The main announcement tomorrow will
be the increase of the level of enrichment to 5 percent percent from 3.67
percent that we agreed under the deal,” the official said on Saturday on
condition of anonymity. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported earlier
that Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi will announce more cuts in
its commitments to the pact on Sunday. On Friday, a top advisor to Iran’s
supreme leader had hinted Tehran could boost its uranium enrichment to five
percent for “peaceful” aims, ahead of deadline it set for world powers to save a
landmark 2015 nuclear deal. Iran is acting on its May 8 threat to suspend from
Sunday parts of the agreement in response to US President Donald Trump’s
reimposition of crippling sanctions after withdrawing from the deal in May last
year. The accord capped Iran’s enrichment maximum at 3.67 percent, sufficient
for power generation but far below the more than 90 percent level required for a
nuclear weapon. Uranium enrichment “will increase as much as needed for our
peaceful activities,” Ali Akbar Velayati, international affairs advisor to
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in an interview published on Friday
on the leader’s official website. “For Bushehr nuclear reactor we need five
percent enrichment and it is a completely peaceful goal,” he added.
Bushehr is Iran’s only nuclear power station and is currently running on
imported fuel from Russia that is closely monitored by the UN’s International
Atomic Energy Agency. On May 8, Iran announced it would no longer respect the
limits set on the size of its stockpiles of enriched uranium and heavy water,
and threatened to abandon further nuclear commitments, including exceeding the
agreed uranium enrichment maximum from July 7. It has also threatened to resume
building from that date a heavy water reactor -- capable of one day producing
plutonium -- in Arak in central Iran, a project that had been mothballed
under the deal. The move comes in response to what Iran deems a failure by the
remaining parties to the deal -- Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia --
to provide Tehran with relief from the US sanctions. “The US has directly and
Europeans indirectly violated” the deal, said Velayati.“We will react
proportionally the more they violate it.”
Iran dismisses reports about seizure of a British oil tanker in Gulf
Reuters/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Iran has dismissed as “fabricated” reports of the seizure of a British oil
tanker in the Gulf, Iran’s IRIB news agency quoted unnamed sources as saying. On
Twitter, some reports said a British-flagged supertanker called ‘Pacific
Voyager’ had come to a halt in the Gulf.
A UK Maritime Trade Operations official also said that ‘Pacific Voyager’ was
stopped to adjust its eta into port as part of a normal procedure, adding that
it is “safe and well.”An Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander threatened on
Friday to seize a British ship in retaliation for the capture of an Iranian
supertanker by Royal Marines in Gibraltar on Thursday for trying to take oil to
Syria in violation of EU sanctions.
Iranian cleric: Britain should ‘fear’ Tehran’s reaction to
tanker seizure
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 6 July 2019
An Iranian cleric and member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, Mohammad Ali Mousavi
Jazayeri, warned Britain on Saturday of Iran’s “retaliatory actions,” following
the seizure of an Iranian oil tanker on Thursday in Gibraltar. "I am openly
saying that Britain should be scared of Iran's retaliatory measures over the
illegal seizure of the Iranian oil tanker," the semi-official Fars news agency
quoted Mohammad Ali Mousavi Jazayeri as saying. “We have shown that we never sit
quietly against bullying,” he said, adding: “Just like we reacted strongly to
the violating American drone, we will certainly produce the appropriate reaction
regarding this matter also.”The Secretary of Iran’s Expediency Discernment
Council and former chief of the IRGC, Mohsen Rezaei had also warned Britain that
if it does not release the Iranian oil tanker it seized on Thursday in
Gibraltar, Iran’s “duty” would be to do the same, and seize a British oil
tanker.
“If England does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the concerned
authorities’ duty to seize an English oil tanker,” he tweeted on Friday.
Iran will increase the level of uranium enrichment from July 7: Khamenei advisor
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Senior Khamenei advisor Ali Akbar Velayati said that Iran will increase the
level of uranium enrichment starting July 7, Iranian Mehr News Agency (MNA)
reported, citing the institute for preserving and publishing the books of
Iranian Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.Velyati said that Iran gave the Europeans a
lot of time after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, but they did not
abide by their obligations so far, despite their promises to do so, according to
MNA. The senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei also said
that from July 7, the rate of uranium enrichment will exceed the 3.67 percent
permitted under the deal, adding that Tehran “could increase the uranium
enrichment level to five percent to provide fuel to Bushehr nuclear
reactor.”Iran has already implemented the first phase of breaking the nuclear
deal by increasing the stockpile of enriched uranium above the 300kg outlined by
the JCPOA, and has warned that the second phase of its actions will begin on
July 7.
Iranian official: Iran will punish Britain for detaining tanker
Staff writer, Al Arabiya.English/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Iran “will certainly punish the English,” an Iranian parliamentary official
warned on Saturday, adding that Britain was “deceived” by the US, following the
seizure of an Iranian oil tanker on Thursday in Gibraltar. “The English have
committed a big mistake,” Mohammad Ebrahim Rezaei, a member of the National
Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian parliament, told the
Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA). “The English were deceived by America, as the
Americans would not dare to do something like this, so they made the English do
it,” he claimed. “The Americans are certainly aware that anyone who violates our
rights will certainly be punished, and that is why they fooled the English into
taking an idiotic action,” he said. He added that Iran “will certainly punish
the English, and will impose a serious cost on England.”
US welcomes deal to end unrest in Sudan
AFP, Washington/Saturday, 6 July 2019
The United States has said it welcomes a power-sharing deal designed to end
months of political unrest in Sudan. The agreement was reached on Friday between
protest leaders and the country’s ruling generals after two days of talks. It
calls for establishing a so-called sovereign council with a rotating military
and civilian president for three years. The State Department called this “an
important step forward.”It expressed hope that the agreement will lead to the
creation of a civilian-led transitional government broadly acceptable to the
Sudanese people. “We look forward to immediate resumption of access to the
internet, establishment of the new legislature, accountability for the violent
suppression of peaceful protests, and progress toward free and fair elections,”
department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement. Sudan has been
gripped by political deadlock since generals ousted longtime president Omar al-Bashir
in a palace coup in April following months of mass protests nationwide.
Sudan protesters cancel marches in wake of agreement
Agencies/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Sudan’s pro-democracy movement on Saturday abandoned plans for marches next
week, after it reached a power-sharing deal with the ruling military council
following a weekslong standoff over the role of the army in the transition. Both
sides agreed on Friday to form a joint military and civilian sovereign council
to lead the country during a transition period of three years and three months,
sparking street celebrations in the capital of Khartoum and other cities across
the county. Sudan’s army ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed Saturday to
protect and implement the power sharing deal agreed with protesters that aims to
end the country’s months-long political crisis. “We, as the military council,
promise to protect what has been agreed upon and ensure that it is implemented,”
al-Burhan said in a statement broadcast live on state television. Rebel groups,
however, slammed the long-waited deal as a “betrayal of the revolution” that led
to the military ouster of autocratic President al-Bashir in April amid
nationwide protests against his nearly three decades of rule. The Forces for
Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC), which represents the protesters in
negotiations with the military council, abandoned previously announced marches
next week on the 40-days anniversary of a deadly beak-up of their protest sit-in
outside the military headquarters on June 3. Earlier this week, the FDFC had
called for marches in Khartoum and elsewhere on July 13 and for a general strike
and civil disobedience the following day. The new schedule included meetings,
workshops and campaigns across the country. The FDFC said it was “an initial
part of a comprehensive action plan” aimed at rooting out members of the al-Bashir
regime. Sudanese rebel groups criticized the power-sharing deal, which came
after intensive efforts by the African Union and Ethiopia.
Peace deal
A faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement, led by Minni Minnawi, said Friday a
peace deal had to be reached with rebel groups before embarking on the deal’s
planned transition. Another faction of the SLM, led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur,
slammed the deal as a “betrayal of the revolution.” The SLM - then fighting an
insurgency in the Darfur region - split into rival factions in 2004. Minnawi has
joined a political coalition with the protesters, while al-Nur refused to take
part in the movement. The FDFC said Friday they would work to establish peace
with rebel groups during the first six months of the transitional period.
Earlier this week, the military council had agreed with Minnawi to extend a
cease-fire and start peace talks. The power-sharing deal was meant to end a
weekslong political deadlock between the military council and the protest
movement since security forces razed the Khartoum sit-in, killing more than 100
people since then, according to protest organizers. In the ensuing weeks,
protesters stayed in the streets, demanding that the generals hand power to
civilian leadership. They resumed negotiations on Wednesday after tens of
thousands of people flooded the streets of Sudan’s main cities last weekend in
the biggest demonstrations since the sit-in camp was razed. At least 11 people
were killed in clashes with security forces, according to protest organizers.
After two-day intense talks, both sides agreed to form a joint military and
civilian sovereign council to lead the country during a transition period of
three years and three months. The joint council had been a sticking point in the
negotiations. The council will include five civilians representing the protest
movement and five military members. An 11th seat will go to a civilian chosen by
both sides. A military member will preside over the council for the first 21
months, followed by a civilian member after that, according to the statement.
That suggested a significant concession by pro-democracy forces, which had
insisted that the sovereign council have only a civilian president. But the deal
also secured a key demand by protest leaders: that they select the members of a
technocratic Cabinet to be formed independently from the generals. The creation
of a legislative council will be postponed for three months, during which time
the sovereign council will make the nation’s laws. The US said Saturday in a
statement that it welcomed the progress in negotiations “which we hope will lead
to the establishment of a civilian-led transitional government that is broadly
acceptable to the Sudanese people.”
Regime Bombings Kill 14 Civilians in Northwest Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 06/2019
Syrian regime bombardment has killed 14 civilians including seven children in
northwestern Syria, a war monitor said Saturday, in the latest deadly raids on
the embattled opposition bastion. Warplanes and helicopters late Friday carried
out air strikes on Mahambel village in Idlib province, killing 13 civilians
including the seven children, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. A
woman was also killed early Saturday in regime rocket fire on the outskirts of
the town of Khan Sheikhun in the south of the province, the Britain-based war
monitor said. Idlib, a region of some three million people, many of whom fled
former rebel-held areas retaken by the government, is the last major bastion of
opposition to the Russia-backed Damascus government after eight years of civil
war. The region on Turkey's doorstep is administered by Syria's former Al-Qaeda
affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, but other jihadist and rebel groups are also
present. Idlib is supposed to be protected from a major regime assault by a
September deal between Moscow and Ankara, but Damascus and its Russian ally have
ramped up their deadly bombardment of the region since late April. More than 520
civilians have been killed since then, according to the Observatory. The United
Nations says 25 health facilities in the region have been hit, the latest
including the second attack in two months on an underground hospital in the town
of Kafranbel on Thursday. "The attacks happened despite the fact that the
coordinates of this hospital had previously been shared with the parties to the
conflict in a deliberate, carefully planned effort to prevent any attacks on
it," an UN official said on Friday. "I am horrified by the ongoing attacks on
civilian areas and civilian infrastructure as the conflict in northwest Syria
continues," said Mark Cutts, UN deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for the
Syrian crisis. Syria's war has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced
millions since it started in 2011 with a brutal crackdown on anti-government
protests.
Syria Kurds host conference on ISIS detainees
AFP, Beirut/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Dozens of international experts gathered in northeastern Syria on Saturday to
discuss how to manage thousands of suspected ISIS group members crammed into
Kurdish-run prisons and camps. French lawyers and US-based analysts were among
those attending the three-day conference on the challenges still facing the
region after ISIS’s territorial defeat, organizers said. Officials of the
autonomous Kurdish administration in northeastern Syria, which is hosting the
conference in the town of Amuda, were also due to take part. In March,
Kurdish-led fighters overran the last pocket of the extremists’ cross-border
“caliphate” with support from a US-led coalition. Now, the Kurds are struggling
to cope with the thousands of alleged ISIS members they detained during the
battle. They include around 1,000 suspected foreign fighters held in jail, and
some 13,000 family members in overcrowded camps.
With no local court equipped to deal with the large number of extremist
suspects, the Kurds have pressed their home countries to take them back. But
Western governments have been reluctant to repatriate them or put them on trial
at home. “There is global consensus that action urgently needs to be taken to
deal with the thousands of foreign ISIS fighters and affiliates, plus
ISIS-linked children, currently detained in northeast Syria,” the organizers of
the three-day conference said, using another acronym for ISIS. “However, there
is near-total lack of consensus as to what this action will look like.” Syria’s
Kurds have called for outside help to set up an international tribunal. Iraq has
offered to put suspected foreign extremists on trial in Baghdad in exchange for
millions of dollars, officials told AFP in April.
Top Official Says Iran Ready for Higher Uranium Enrichment
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 06/2019
A top aide to Iran's supreme leader says the Islamic Republic is ready to enrich
uranium beyond the level set by Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal, just ahead of a
deadline it set Sunday for Europe to offer new terms to the accord. A video
message by Ali Akbar Velayati included him saying that "Americans directly and
Europeans indirectly violated the deal," part of Tehran's hardening tone with
Europe. European parties to the deal have yet to offer a way for Iran to avoid
the sweeping economic sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump since he
pulled the U.S. out of the accord a year ago, especially those targeting its
crucial oil sales. All this comes as America has rushed thousands of troops, an
aircraft carrier, nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and advanced fighter jets to the
Mideast. Mysterious oil tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, attacks by
Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen on Saudi Arabia and Iran shooting down a U.S.
military drone have raised fears of a wider conflict engulfing the region. In
the video, available Saturday on a website for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, Velayati said that increasing enrichment closers to weapons-grade
levels was "unanimously agreed upon by every component of the establishment.""We
will show reaction exponentially as much as they violate it. We reduce our
commitments as much as they reduce it," said Velayati, Khamenei's adviser on
international affairs. "If they go back to fulfilling their commitments, we will
do so as well."Under the atomic accord, Iran agreed to enrich uranium to no more
than 3.67%, which is enough for peaceful pursuits but is far below weapons-grade
levels of 90%. Iran denies it seeks nuclear weapons, but the nuclear deal sought
to prevent that as a possibility by limiting enrichment and Iran's stockpile of
uranium to 300 kilograms (661 pounds).
On Monday, Iran and United Nations inspectors acknowledged it had broken the
stockpile limit. Combining that with increasing its enrichment levels narrows
the one-year window experts believe Iran would need to have enough material to
build a nuclear weapon, if it chose to do so.
"This would be a very worrisome step that could substantially shorten the time
Iran would need to produce the material needed for nuclear weapons," said Miles
Pomper, a senior fellow at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies'
James Marin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "Both Iran and the Trump
administration should be looking for ways to de-escalate the crisis, rather than
exacerbate it."
It remains unclear to what level Iran will choose to up its uranium enrichment.
However, Velayati in his remarks made reference to 5% enrichment. "For Bushehr
nuclear reactor we need 5% of enrichment and it is a completely peaceful goal,"
he said. Bushehr, Iran's only nuclear power plant, is now running on imported
fuel from Russia that's closely monitored by the U.N. International Atomic
Energy Agency.
Iran stopped producing uranium enriched above 5% in January 2014 amid
negotiations for the nuclear deal.
Outside of Bushehr, higher-enriched uranium could be used for naval ships and
submarines, something Iran has said it would want to pursue. Iran's nuclear
chief Ali Akbar Salehi said in 2016 that nuclear power plants for naval vessels
need uranium enriched to at least 5%.
The U.S. said its ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, Jackie
Wolcott, had requested a special meeting of the IAEA to discuss its "latest,
concerning report on the Iran regime's nuclear program." That meeting is planned
for Wednesday.
Iran's diplomatic mission to Vienna, where the IAEA is based, called the U.S.
move "a sad irony" as America had unilaterally withdrawn from the deal a year
ago.
Meanwhile Saturday, the hard-line Kayhan newspaper demanded revenge over the
seizure of an Iranian oil tanker off Gibraltar that had been heading to Syria.
Authorities in Gibraltar said they seized the Grace 1, believed to be carrying
over 2 million barrels of oil, over European Union sanctions on Syria — though
Spain said the seizure came at the request of the U.S.
"Seizure of U.K. oil tanker is the only way to confront pirates of the Queen,"
Kayhan blared in a front-page headline, echoing a suggestion Friday by a former
Revolutionary Guard chief.
UN Calls for Libya Ceasefire as Death Toll Climbs to 1,000
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 06/2019
The UN Security Council called Friday for a ceasefire in Libya as the death toll
from a three-month offensive on Tripoli reached 1,000, including scores killed
in an air strike that hit a detention centre for migrants.
The council condemned the late Tuesday attack on the Tajoura detention camp east
of Tripoli and "stressed the need for all parties to urgently de-escalate the
situation and to commit to a ceasefire", said a joint statement.
Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar, whose forces hold eastern Libya and much of the
country's south, launched an offensive in early April to wrestle the capital
from forces loyal to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Air
strikes and ground fighting have since left nearly 1,000 people dead and some
5,000 wounded, the UN's World Health Organization said.
The fighting has forced more than 100,000 people to flee their homes and
threatens to plunge Libya into deeper conflict. Among the dead are 53 migrants
killed Tuesday night in an air raid on a detention centre in the Tripoli suburb
of Tajoura, held by the GNA, which accused Haftar's forces of carrying out the
strike. A Geneva-based spokesman for the International Organization for
Migration said six children were among the migrants killed. Joel Millman said
that 350 migrants, including 20 women and four children, were still detained at
the centre, one of five air hangars hit in the raid. World powers have been
divided over how to respond to Haftar's offensive, with the United States and
Russia refusing to condemn the Libyan strongman. The British-drafted council
statement condemned the attack on the migrant camp, called for a return to
political talks and for full respect of the arms embargo on Libya.
It followed a closed-door council meeting on Wednesday during which US diplomats
said they needed more time to consult with Washington on the proposed text. The
United Nations has called for an independent investigation to determine who was
responsible for the strike on the centre, which housed some 600 migrants, mainly
from African countries.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey -- which backs the GNA -- called for an
end to "unlawful attacks" by Haftar's forces during a meeting with Libyan Prime
Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Istanbul on Friday, the Turkish presidency said.
UN shared coordinates
UN agencies and humanitarian groups have repeatedly voiced concern over the
plight of thousands of migrants and refugees held in detention centres near
combat zones in the capital. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed
outrage over the attack and said the United Nations had shared the coordinates
of the detention centre with the warring sides to protect the civilians. The
carnage in Tajoura was "a tragedy that should have never happened", said Charlie
Yaxley, spokesman for the UN's refugee agency. Libya has become a major conduit
for migrants seeking to reach Europe and remains prey to numerous militias vying
for control of the country's oil wealth. Rights groups say migrants face
horrifying abuses in Libya, and their plight has worsened since Haftar launched
the offensive against Tripoli. According to the UN, some 5,700 refugees and
migrants are being held in detention centres in Libya, 3,300 of whom are
vulnerable to fighting in and around Tripoli.
Plane downed
An initial lightning assault in early April saw Haftar's self-styled Libyan
National Army steam towards the capital. But they have since been bogged down on
its southern outskirts, where frontlines have been frozen for months. GNA forces
launched a surprise counter-attack late last month, seizing the strategic town
of Gharyan, the main supply base for Haftar's offensive. After the setback,
Haftar's forces threatened to intensify strikes against their rivals. Both sides
have launched daily air raids throughout the fighting and each lost several
planes. The rival camps have remained convinced that with the help of their
backers, they can win the battle. The GNA receives support from Turkey and
Qatar, and Haftar is backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and according to
experts, to some degree by the United States.
20 civilians killed in northwest Syria: monitor
AFP, Beirut/Saturday, 6 July 2019
Syrian regime and Russian bombardment have killed 20 civilians including seven
children in northwestern Syria, a war monitor said on Saturday, in the latest
deadly raids on the embattled opposition bastion. Regime warplanes and
helicopters late on Friday carried out air strikes on Mahambel village in Idlib
province, killing 13 civilians including the seven children, the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights said. Another seven civilians were killed on
Saturday, including a woman hit by regime rocket fire on the outskirts of the
town of Khan Sheikhun in the south of the province, the Britain-based war
monitor said.
Three members of a family were killed by a Russian air strike on the town of
Morek, in neighboring Hama province, the Observatory reported. Idlib, a region
of some three million people, many of whom fled former rebel-held areas retaken
by the government, is the last major bastion of opposition to the Russia-backed
Damascus government after eight years of civil war. The region on Turkey’s
doorstep is administered by Syria’s former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, but other militant and rebel groups are also present. Idlib is supposed
to be protected from a major regime assault by a September deal between Moscow
and Ankara, but Damascus and its Russian ally have ramped up their deadly
bombardment of the region since late April. More than 530 civilians have been
killed since then, according to the Observatory. The United Nations says 25
health facilities in the region have been hit, the latest including the second
attack in two months on an underground hospital in the town of Kafranbel on
Thursday. “The attacks happened despite the fact that the coordinates of this
hospital had previously been shared with the parties to the conflict in a
deliberate, carefully planned effort to prevent any attacks on it,” an UN
official said on Friday. “I am horrified by the ongoing attacks on civilian
areas and civilian infrastructure as the conflict in northwest Syria continues,”
said Mark Cutts, UN deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for the Syrian
crisis.
Syria’s war has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since it
started in 2011 with a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests.
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on July 06-07/2019
US and Iran: What is NOT a Smart Policy
د.مجيد رافيزادا: أميركا وإيران: السياسة التي لا تعتبر ذكية
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 06/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76396/%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/?fbclid=IwAR2ouoeWY1VkikVAlB_hwyWiyZVv8uc-XdJzbghMAnmNbKGNeZ0ybN7zok8
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14498/trump-iran-policy
Rooting for President Trump to fail in his policy with Iran means calling for
empowering and emboldening a theocratic regime that has consistently threatened
"Death to America" -- with nukes, presumably, if it had the capability, which it
is busy acquiring.
The core revolutionary pillars of this Iranian government are anti-Americanism
and anti-Semitism. This country, which some people say they would like to see
prevail over President Trump, has also been named, several times, the leading
executioner of children. It has killed thousands of Americans, including in the
2001 World Trade Center attacks, and has committed -- and continues to commit --
the most unspeakable human rights abuses, including flogging and executing
minors....That documentation is just a limited accounting of the horrors it has
committed; the list goes on.
During President Obama's eight-year administration, Obama and Kerry made
unprecedented concessions, fully respected the Iranian leaders, lifted
sanctions, offered them a fast-track to legitimate deliverable nuclear
capability and showered the regime with $150 billion -- all in an attempt to
appease the ruling mullahs. How did that turn out?
Iran gained legitimacy, directed the billions of dollars to Iran's military, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as Iran's militias and terror groups,
and, through its proxies, has been deepening its foothold in Iraq, Syria, Yemen,
and strengthening its hold on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Venezuela and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
Rooting for President Trump to fail in his policy with Iran means calling for
empowering and emboldening a theocratic regime that has consistently threatened
"Death to America" -- with nukes, presumably, if it had the capability, which it
is busy acquiring.
There are policy analysts, scholars or politicians I have come across who say,
"I hope Trump fails." One area particularly focused on is the president's policy
on Iran. The statement "I hope Trump fails," however, is not a sound strategy.
Those who hold this view would apparently rather see the country fail than see
President Trump do well. Rooting for President Trump to fail in his policy with
Iran means calling for empowering and emboldening a theocratic regime that has
consistently threatened "Death to America" -- with nukes, presumably, if it had
the capability, which it is busy acquiring.
The core revolutionary pillars of this Iranian government are anti-Americanism
and anti-Semitism. This country, which some people say they would like to see
prevail over President Trump, has also been named, several times, the leading
executioner of children. It has killed thousands of Americans, including in the
2001 World Trade Center attacks, and has committed -- and continues to commit --
the most unspeakable human rights abuses, including flogging and executing
minors.
Iran has massacred its own people and is ranked the leading state sponsor of
terrorism, and first in the world for executing people per capita. That
documentation is just a limited accounting of the horrors it has committed; the
list goes on.
Those who dislike President Trump, or those who are Iran's apologists and
lobbyists use different narratives to try to turn the public against the
president on his Iran policy.
One common narrative is that if Iran is treated with kindness, concessions and
respect, then it will respond by moderating its behavior. It will stop
intervening in other nations, supporting terror groups, and inciting
anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism.
History, however, has dispassionately revealed to us that this argument is a
total fantasy, pioneered by President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State,
John Kerry. During Obama's eight-year administration, Obama and Kerry made
unprecedented concessions, fully respected the Iranian leaders, lifted
sanctions, offered them a fast-track to legitimate deliverable nuclear
capability and showered the regime with $150 billion -- all in an attempt to
appease the ruling mullahs. How did that turn out?
Iran gained legitimacy, directed the billions of dollars to Iran's military, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as Iran's militias and terror groups,
and, through its proxies, has been deepening its foothold in Iraq, Syria, Yemen,
and strengthening its hold on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Venezuela and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
Tehran continues detaining and imprisoning American citizens; as recently as
2016, it waylaid and interrogated US Navy personnel. Iran also further pursues
its military adventurism by expanding its influence throughout the region,
including in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq.
The second far-fetched tactic that the Trump's critics or Iran's agents use is
to implant fear in the American society by spreading the idea that President
Trump is "starting a war" with Iran.
The president and his administration have clearly stated, again and again, that
they are not trying to start a war with Iran, but instead to deter Iran's
offensives, threats and destabilizing actions through economic and political
pressure. If the president was looking to "start a war" with Iran, he would not
have invited Iranian leaders to the negotiating table; he would not have called
off the planned strikes against Iran after Tehran had shot down a US drone over
international waters and sabotaged several oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
President Trump has given Tehran many opportunities to change its behavior and
become a constructive and rational state actor. Iran, unfortunately, has not
shown the slightest interest.
By contrast, President Obama, in the first two years in office alone, authorized
193 drone strikes. Those amount to more than four times the number of drone
attacks that the previous administration authorized in its eight years. The
question is, why did the same critics not get up in arms and insist that Obama
was starting wars?
Wishing Trump to "fail", wishing one's own country to go downhill rather than
succeed -- and misleading the public about the Trump administration's policy on
Iran by fear mongering and false information -- is playing right into the hands
of Iran's ruling mullahs who never tire of saying that what they wish for
America is "death".
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Strategic chaos has taken Iran to the brink of disaster
Raghida Dergham/The National/July 06/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76400/%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%ba%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%87%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b9-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a/
The country has been wagering on European panic but recent events could force EU
powers to get tough on Tehran
We are entering a very dangerous week for the US-Iran relationship.
The coming days carry grave risks, because the Iranian leadership will continue
inflaming military tensions as long as US President Donald Trump maintains his
strategy of strangling Iran economically. Both sides want to cut a deal but
their demands are mutually exclusive.
Sources familiar with Tehran's logic say the regime intends to exacerbate
tensions to invite a US military strike. They argue Iran’s recent decision to
increase uranium enrichment levels and threats to start up a nuclear reactor if
European nations fail to give economic guarantees by Sunday aim to induce panic
in Europe and force a decisive split within Nato, forcing the US to radically
alter its policy on Iran.
Some observers believe Tehran might win this bet, with some EU powers complying
with measures that could damage transatlantic ties. But others think the
Europeans cannot bypass sanctions on Iran, resume oil purchases and establish a
financial vessel as Tehran desires, preventing Iran from forcing an about-face
in Washington.
Mr Trump does not want to fire the first shot against Iran. But Tehran's leaders
want to lure him into it, to trap him on the eve of the US presidential election
campaign and because they believe he would back down. Sources familiar with
Washington's thinking are adamant that the Americans are not "terrified", as the
Iranian intelligence minister Mahmoud Alavi has suggested. Mr Alavi said his
country would only agree to dialogue with the US if Mr Trump lifts sanctions and
if Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, agrees.
If Tehran pushes Mr Trump too far by withdrawing from the nuclear deal
altogether, the White House is ready to respond. Despite Mr Trump's reluctance,
it might have no choice but to respond militarily. The US military has already
taken pre-emptive measures, including deploying 12 Stealth F-22 planes to US
bases in the Gulf region. The decision whether or not to embark on a
world-altering war is now in the hands of Mr Khamenei. In truth, the next few
days could prove decisive in this regard.
Some Gulf states believe this is a psychological or propaganda war. This view
holds that Iran’s regime is not suicidal but survivalist and thus will stop
short of provoking war.
Some believe an Iranian-Israeli war is unlikely because the two are "frenemies"
who have avoided direct war and limited their confrontation to other
battlefields, chiefly Lebanon. On the other hand, some suggest Israel could be
central in any potential military confrontation between the US and Iran. Based
on interviews with military and intelligence sources, there are two main
scenarios for how this could play out.
One source noted: “Iran is not afraid of military confrontation and its
determination to destroy Israel is very serious.” The source added: “The
Iranians have drafted military plans that include striking Israel to directly
neutralise its capabilities [while] leveraging the capabilities of Hezbollah in
Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.”
Another source painted a different scenario, where the US would provide air
cover for a strike on Iranian radars and missile sites while Israel takes out
the nuclear reactors in Arak and Bushehr. In this scenario, the ensuing war
would be devastating if Iran decided to strike back.
Iran has formidable military capabilities and can immediately activate Hezbollah
in Lebanon to attack Israel. This would embroil Lebanon in a war with Israel,
against its will, especially since Washington has told the Lebanese government
it would be held responsible for Hezbollah’s actions. Lebanon has also been
informed that this time, Hezbollah would be battling both the US and Israel.
But both sources agree that any conflict would be relatively short. Still, the
level of destruction would be significant.
The Russian leadership is watching closely and its attempts to defuse tensions
have so far failed. The future of a major arms deal between Russia and Iran
hangs in the balance and it is likely Moscow will not deliver heavy weapons in
the event of US-Iranian war. According to Russian sources, such a war “would
destroy Russian-American relations”.
Moscow is holding the US responsible for imposing an economic embargo on Iran
and sees it as a provocation that amounts to a declaration of war. Russian
President Vladimir Putin has sought to persuade Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
to stop inviting military strikes. He has failed primarily because the final
decision rests with Mr Khamenei and Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein
Salami, who said his forces were ready to “vanquish” their enemies.
Europe is divided into firm powers and panicked ones. A few days go, the British
Royal Marines seized Grace 1, an Iranian oil tanker, in Gibraltar. The super
tanker was carrying a massive shipment of crude oil heading for the Banyas
refinery in Syria, in violation of EU sanctions on the Assad regime. France is
desperately trying to save the nuclear deal that Mr Trump withdrew from – an
impossible mission given the US insistence on compelling all sides to abide by
sanctions on Tehran.
For example, German firms, due in no small part to the strict lobbying of the US
ambassador to Berlin, are concerned they might be hit by US sanctions if they
participate in the Instex financial vessel for EU trade with Iran. Judging by
this, EU powers will not be able to meet their obligations to Iran, despite EU
foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini's claims that Instex has been activated.
Indeed, the US position has been that Instex is a way to circumvent sanctions
and has issued warnings to firms, banks and even governments that the sanctions
could apply to them if they use it.
The UK interception of the Iranian super tanker could force Europe to implement
the embargo on Iranian oil. It sends an important message to Tehran, which has
been wagering on European panic and for the purpose, adopted "strategic
recklessness" to exploit the fear of war.
Ultimately, it seems this recklessness is pushing Iran and its people to the
brink. But Tehran has the option of adjusting and reinventing itself to serve
its interests and to pursue natural relations with its neighbours. The spectre
of regional war will continue to loom large unless wisdom quickly prevails.
Britain caught between a US rock and a Chinese hard place
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/July 06, 2019
Relations between the UK and China are cooling sharply amid the most serious
political unrest in Hong Kong for decades. While this is a headache for Beijing,
the overall challenge may be even greater for London in the context of its post-Brexit
dependence on growing trade ties with fast growing economies in Asia and beyond.
The Hong Kong protesters have been squarely defended by Jeremy Hunt and Boris
Johnson, the two candidates to be leader of the British Conservative Party, and
almost certainly prime minister shortly thereafter. Foreign Secretary Hunt, for
instance, called on Beijing not to use the protests against a proposed Hong Kong
law allowing for extradition to mainland China as a “pretext for repression.”
Despite their rhetoric, Hunt and Johnson both know relations went into a deep
freeze in 2012 when David Cameron, then prime minister, offended Beijing by
meeting the Dalai Lama. That is why the governments of both Cameron and Theresa
May ratcheted down human-rights concerns about China, and relations entered a
“golden era” after Xi Jinping’s visit to the UK in 2015.
While this stance is not without its critics — including Labour Party leader
Jeremy Corbyn, who raised human-rights issues with Xi during his visit —
Conservative ministers have increasingly taken the view that enhancing ties with
Beijing is in the national interest. They expect Xi to be in power well into the
2020s, and believe there is an opportunity to develop a relationship that could
make a significant contribution to UK prosperity for a generation.
However, it is not only Corbyn but also Washington which has raised concerns
about the degree to which London is perceived to be cosying up to Beijing,
especially under the Cameron government when finance minister George Osborne
pledged to make the UK “China’s best partner in the West.” Feathers were ruffled
in the Obama administration when the UK became a founder member of the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), championed by Beijing as an alternative
to the World Bank.
Beijing’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure project may constitute a
new area of dispute between London and Washington. After Italy this year became
the first G7 nation to endorse the plan, much to the alarm of the Trump team,
China is looking for other key nations to support it, and finance minister
Philip Hammond attended the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing in April.
Conservative ministers have increasingly taken the view that enhancing ties with
Beijing is in the national interest. They expect Xi to be in power well into the
2020s, and believe there is an opportunity to develop a relationship that could
make a significant contribution to UK prosperity for a generation.
As these examples underline, economics has assumed even higher importance in
bilateral relations in recent years. In the context of Brexit, London is putting
ever greater emphasis on consolidating trade ties with non-EU nations, as
underscored by recent trips to China by ministers including May and Hammond.
The UK already receives more Chinese direct investment than any other EU
country, and is one of Beijing’s top three trade partners in Europe. China is
also one of the UK’s top non-EU trade partner.
Security issues are a growing part of the agenda too. The two nations recently
celebrated the 45th anniversary of the China-UK diplomatic relationship, and
Beijing has sought to expand military cooperation with London — including, for
the first time, the dispatch of warships to London for a tour in 2018.
However, on the security agenda too there are tensions for London to manage. In
February, for instance, a trip by Hammond to Beijing was canceled after a speech
by Gavin Williamson, defense minister at the time, was perceived by Chinese
officials as saber-rattling; Williamson asserted that London could deploy an
aircraft carrier in disputed waters in the Pacific for its first operational
cruise in 2021.
Public confirmation of the London-Beijing spat came when the Chinese ambassador
used a rare press conference to condemn UK “interference” in Hong Kong, and was
summoned to the Foreign Office to have China’s obligations under the 1984
Sino-British Declaration on Hong Kong explained to him.
The Chinese technology giant Huawei could also be a source of tension. Security
officials in Washington have threatened to limit intelligence sharing if the UK
allows Huawei to build part of its 5G high-speed mobile network, because they
believe the company would be obliged to pass sensitive information to the
Chinese government. This decision, a key one for Johnson or Hunt as the next
prime minister, is another example of the high-stakes diplomatic balancing act
for London, given its desire for closer economic ties with Beijing after it
leaves the EU.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
Why Iran’s nuclear blackmail gambit will fail
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/July 06, 2019
International relations so often amount to a dialogue of the deaf, with the
contending powers knowing next to nothing about each other. After my decade in
Washington, I fully accept foreign criticisms regarding America’s breezy
insularity from the rest of the world. But this dangerous ignorance works both
ways. In the decades I have lived away from the US, I must admit to finding the
leaders of the rest of world equally (and often proudly) ignorant of the
history, culture and way of life of the most powerful country in the world.
This ignorance about America can presently be seen in the Iranian government’s
ham-fisted efforts at nuclear blackmail. It is abundantly clear that Iran’s
recent abrogation of its nuclear deal is at base a power play designed to
leverage terrified Europeans into open defiance of the Trump administration’s
policy of “maximum pressure,” and the surprisingly effective sanctions that have
disrupted the already-creaking Iranian economy.
On Monday, in announcing its abrogation of the terms of the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA), Tehran has heaped enormous pressure on a Europe
desperate, at almost all costs, to salvage the nuclear deal after the Trump
administration walked away from it. Tehran has allowed stocks of low-enriched
uranium to exceed the 300-kilogram limit previously agreed. This move amounts to
diplomatic signaling, letting London, Paris and Berlin know in no uncertain
terms of Tehran’s flagging patience with the tattered agreement, which has yet
to deliver it the hoped-for economic benefits that were the reason for the deal
(from Iran’s point of view) in the first place.
More ominously, Iran has threatened — around or on July 7 — to increase the
level at which it enriches uranium above the 3.7 percent limit agreed in the
JCPOA to about 20 percent. While the lower figure is only enough to fuel a
commercial nuclear power plant, the higher number halves the time it would take
Iran to produce weapons-grade uranium, and amounts to a clear and present danger
to the rest of the world.
Ideally, Iran may hope that sustained and severe European pressure will force
the US to lessen its draconian sanctions on Tehran, or at the very least force
Washington into allowing the EU-3 to trade in a far greater volume with Iran
than has been possible, without risking devastating American secondary
sanctions. It is not too much to say that Tehran’s ultimate geostrategic goal is
to use its efforts at nuclear brinkmanship to prod the Europeans into directly
challenging the Trump administration’s Iran policy.
Tehran’s ultimate geostrategic goal is to use its efforts at nuclear
brinkmanship to prod the Europeans into directly challenging the Trump
administration’s Iran policy.
The Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), the European-created
investment vehicle, allows goods to be bartered between Iran and European
companies without involving direct financial transactions, thereby avoiding
American secondary banking sanctions. But, at present, INSTEX simply does not
help Iran all that much, as it is not capable of allowing for trade in the key
sectors of Iran’s economy that are suffering the greatest pain, particularly the
oil industry. Iran’s UN envoy Majid Takht-Ravanchi rightly describes INSTEX as
“a very lovely car but without any gasoline.”
Tehran has been pressing the EU-3 to use INSTEX to establish credit lines so
Iranian oil exports to Europe can be financed through it. Iran’s vital energy
industry has been decimated by new US sanctions, with oil exports tumbling to a
mere 400,000 barrels per day. However, at present, INSTEX only allows for trade
in humanitarian goods.
However, for all Tehran’s diplomatic subtlety, this is a gambit doomed to
failure due to a fundamental lack of understanding of how the present
transatlantic relationship, Trump’s America, and even modern capitalism,
actually work.
It is certainly an understatement to say that the Trump administration would win
no popularity contests in any European capital. Saying that, for all the
friction, very few European leaders see any real alternative — given their
obvious relative decline — to a continued alliance with the US.
Even in the highly unlikely event the Europeans managed to create a unified
stance to challenge Trump over his Iran policy, it is astronomically unlikely
that the White House would blink. Trump’s fervent Jacksonian posture places a
premium on retaining America’s right to independent diplomatic action above all
else.
Finally, Tehran is pressuring the wrong people. European governments do not
determine the rate of trade with Iran, European businesses do. The mere threat
of American secondary sanctions if they dare to do business with Iran, and the
fear that they might be excluded from the vital American market, has deterred
almost all large European companies, including banks, from trading with the
relatively unimportant Iranian market.
So Iran’s nuclear blackmail plan is surely doomed to fail, as the country’s
leaders do not begin to understand the workings of the transatlantic
relationship, the Trump White House, or modern capitalism itself. The only
question is whether, in its brinkmanship, Tehran will go ahead with enriching to
the 20 percent level. Far from breaking up the transatlantic alliance, such a
move will unify it, as the EU-3 will then find it almost impossible to sustain
the JCPOA. As ever, cultural ignorance has its price.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman
Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also
senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be
contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.
Trump’s traveling circus is in need of a lion tamer
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 06, 2019
More than anything else, the presidency of Donald Trump is associated with
controversy. Most of it is probably the US president’s deliberate attempt to
provoke; some of it is because he doesn’t know any different or any better. He
thrives on his skirmishes with real and imaginary enemies, and his Twitter
account is a platform for abuse and bullying.
However, one should not take from him, for better or for worse, his panache and
his penchant for drama and unorthodoxy. It is in this vein that we should look
at his spontaneous meeting with North Korea’s president last Sunday. Trump
became the first sitting US president to set foot in North Korea, where he met
his new-found friend President Kim Jong Un. When he crossed from South to North
Korea, he consigned to oblivion the G20 meeting he had attended the previous
day; no one was any longer interested, though some of the issues discussed there
are most crucial to the state of the world, especially that of rebuilding a
healthier, fairer and sustainable world economy.
Since Trump became president, every international event he has been involved
with has become something of a Trump traveling circus, characterised by its
unpredictability and disconcerting to those who engage with him, while providing
a rather twisted form of entertainment. The G20 summit in Osaka was no
different. On his way to Japan he had already, by design or by irrepressible
urge, managed to insult some of America’s closest allies and especially the
hosts of the summit, Japan. In an interview with Fox News — who else? — he
returned to one of his customary laments about Germany and Japan not shouldering
their fair share of maintaining the West’s collective security.
His ignorance about why those two countries have been excluded from sending
troops abroad, and his flippant way of expressing it (“If Japan is attacked, we
will fight World War Three ... if we’re attacked, Japan doesn’t have to help us
at all, they can watch it on their Sony TVs”) are a source of genuine
irritation, and an affront to his hosts. There were more sour grapes tweeted
about India’s new trade tariffs on the US. But most revealing of his state of
mind was the assertion he made in the same Fox interview that “Almost all
countries in this world take tremendous advantage of the United States … it’s
unbelievable, OK?” It is indeed unbelievable that deep into his first term he
still retains this siege mentality while about to attend one of the world’s most
important international gatherings.
Since Trump became president, every international event he has been involved
with has become something of a Trump traveling circus, characterised by its
unpredictability and disconcerting to those who engage with him, while providing
a rather twisted form of entertainment.
When the leader of the world’s most powerful country perceives relations with
its allies in such simplistic, transactional terms, it renders the entire G20
gathering redundant. Add to this the presence of two lame duck prime ministers,
Germany’s Merkel and Britain’s May both in the twilight of their political
careers; China’s president Xi Jinping, who is in the middle of a trade war with
the US and looking apprehensively over his shoulder at events in Hong Kong; a
Brexit haze that is engulfing the entire European Union with uncertainty; and
Russia’s expansionist tendencies under Vladimir Putin, who claims that “the
liberal idea has become obsolete” — and one wonders whether the G20 belongs to a
completely different period in history.
The very essence of the G20 forum has been one of providing leadership aiming at
ensuring peace and prosperity through global cooperation, but this is not what
many of the current leaders of the G20 stand for. Ultimately, we all benefit if
world leaders engage in discussing the state of the global economy, innovation,
environment and energy, job creation, women’s empowerment, sustainable
development and even the state of the world’s health, as the summit’s agenda
proposed. But are they committed to work together “to foster global economic
growth, while harnessing the power of technological innovation, in particular
digitalization, and its application for the benefit of all,” as the concluding
declaration of the summit states? Or are too many of them of the nationalist,
populist and protectionist persuasion who take exactly the opposite view?
On the major issues such as climate change, sustainable development, tariffs,
gender equality or nuclear proliferation, the schism between some of the
countries is growing. This leaves the G20 mainly as a high-profile gathering of
the photo-opportunity variety and an arena for representatives’ posturing and
airing differences more than areas of agreement, mainly to enhance their
prestige and standing at home.
However, in the peculiar world of diplomacy, especiallyTrump’s, a visit to Japan
was an opportunity to suggest a spontaneous a visit to his North Korean
counterpart, since he happened to be in the neighborhood. If we keep with the
script that it was a completely last-minute, tweet-improvised diplomatic
initiative, then what was its purpose? Was it about eclipsing all the other
leaders of the G20 and the summit itself? Was it about being the first president
to cross the border into North Korea? Trump might have achieved both those aims,
but the big winner is the ruthless dictator of North Korea, who gets recognition
and legitimacy, though he hasn’t made a single concession.
It was suggested that actually, behind the scenes, an agreement had been
concocted to allow North Korea to remain a nuclear force. This might be a
slippery slope, and scupper attempts to stop governments aspiring to become
nuclear powers. So far Kim is getting too many freebies from Trump — who talks
the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk regarding the need to contain rogue elements
within the international community who are after nuclear capability or are
intent on destabilizing the international system.
Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University
London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences
Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He
is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.
Twitter: @YMekelberg