English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese
Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 03/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july03.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Then Peter began to speak to them: ‘I truly understand that
God shows no partiality, but in every nation anyone who fears him and does what
is right is acceptable to him
Acts of the Apostles 10/23b/27:34-43/:”So Peter invited them in and gave
them lodging. The next day he got up and went with them, and some of the
believers from Joppa accompanied him. The following day they came to Caesarea.
Cornelius was expecting them and had called together his relatives and close
friends. On Peter’s arrival Cornelius met him, and falling at his feet,
worshipped him. But Peter made him get up, saying, ‘Stand up; I am only a
mortal.’ And as he talked with him, he went in and found that many had
assembled; Then Peter began to speak to them: ‘I truly understand that God shows
no partiality, but in every nation anyone who fears him and does what is right
is acceptable to him. You know the message he sent to the people of Israel,
preaching peace by Jesus Christ he is Lord of all. That message spread
throughout Judea, beginning in Galilee after the baptism that John announced:
how God anointed Jesus of Nazareth with the Holy Spirit and with power; how he
went about doing good and healing all who were oppressed by the devil, for God
was with him. We are witnesses to all that he did both in Judea and in
Jerusalem. They put him to death by hanging him on a tree; but God raised him on
the third day and allowed him to appear, not to all the people but to us who
were chosen by God as witnesses, and who ate and drank with him after he rose
from the dead. He commanded us to preach to the people and to testify that he is
the one ordained by God as judge of the living and the dead. All the prophets
testify about him that everyone who believes in him receives forgiveness of sins
through his name.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 02-03/2020
Ministry of Health announces 8 new infections
Health Minister tours Hotel Dieu de France departments
UNIFIL head stresses tripartite efforts to preserve stability along Blue Line
LAF: Lebanese side has warned of Israel's decision to start oil exploration
during tripartite meeting in Ras Naqoura
Berri receives phone call from his Jordanian counterpart, meets Bassil,
parliamentary delegation
Diplomatic fears over Lebanon's stability; Government shakeup being eyed
Ferzli visits Hariri: Reconsidering government composition has become necessary
Black market dollar trading forces Lebanese shops to close
Diab Criticizes Recent Activity of Ambassadors
Rampling in Talks with Najm: Independence of the Judiciary is Essential
Report: France Fears Violence in Lebanon over Crisis
Franjieh Warns of 'Civil War' during Upcoming Period of 'Hunger'
Jumblatt: Government has lost touch with reality
ISF Arrests Counterfeit Money Gang
UNIFIL Head Stresses Tripartite Efforts to Preserve Stability along Blue Line
Diab Criticizes Recent Activity of Ambassadors
Sfeir Meets Saudi Envoy, Says Lebanese to Get Dollar 'through Banks'
U.S. Says to Work with France for Better Future for Lebanon
Wahhab Urges Diab to Quit, Says There are 'Negotiations on New Govt.'
Hariri Says Has 'Conditions' to Return as Premier
Top Lebanon Retailers on Strike as Currency Plummets
Cabinet Meeting Kicks Off at Grand Serail
Rampling in Talks with Najm: Independence of the Judiciary is Essential
Lebanese cabinet member: ‘international community closed to us’
Autopsy of a Collapse/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/July 02/2020
Rescue talks with the IMF 'hit the rocks' as Lebanese suffer/Samia Nakhoul/Reuters/July
02/2020
At this rate, Lebanon may not survive to see its 100th birthday/Michael
Young/The National/July 02/2020
The Organization For The Liberation Of Argentina (OLA) – Building Support For
The Iranian Regime And Hizbullah/MEMRI/July 02/2020
CORRUPTION, CRISIS, CORONAVIRUS: THE LEBANESE “TRIPLE C”/Euromed Rights/July
02/2020
Diab: Internal and external parties dragging Lebanon into regional conflicts
Diab meets Chinese Ambassador
Qabalan calls Justice Minister, Judicial Council to reject Judge Mazeh's
resignation
Hariri: The key word is reform and my conditions to return to the premiership
are well know
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 02-03/2020
Explosion at Iran nuclear site hit new centrifuge plant: US-based
analysts
Iran Reports Accident at 'Inactive' Nuclear Site, No Casualties
France refutes Turkey's 'inaccurate and bias' claims on Libya.
Palestinian Rivals Fatah, Hamas Pledge Unity against Israeli AnnexationsIncident
Incident at Iranian Nuclear Facility Damages Construction
France latest side to condemn talks of coverting Hagia Sophia back into a mosque
Fatah, Hamas Pledge Unity against Israeli Annexations
Saudi Arabia Asks Int’l Community Not to Ignore Iran’s Threat
Erdogan’s Spies Track Regime Opponents on German Soil
Turkey Prepares to Set Up Base in Misrata
World Bank Warns Against Slow Implementation of Virus Containment Strategies
Iran reports ‘accident’ in construction near Iran’s Natanz nuclear site
Vatican informs US, Israel of Holy See’s concern over West Bank annexation plans
Turkey wants France to apologize over ‘false’ Mediterranean Libya war ship
claims
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on July 02-03/2020
Politics, Lies and Gaddafi Tapes: The plots uncovered by Libyan
intelligence leaks/Tommy Hilton/Al Arabiya English/Thursday 02 July 2020
Turkey and Qatar: Love in Bloom/Burak Bekdil/BESA Center Perspectives/July
02/2020
The FDA Wants a Covid-19 Vaccine That Really Works/Max Nisen/Bloomberg/ July
02/2020
‘Smart Lockdowns’ Are the Future in Europe/Ferdinando Giugliano/Bloomberg/ July
02/2020
How Schools Will Reopen Safely This Fall/Faye Flam/Bloomberg/ July 02/2020
Black Lives Matter: "We Are Trained Marxists" - Part I/Soeren Kern/Gatestone
Institute/July 02/2020
US Needs to Review its IRF Report on India/Jagdish N. Singh/Gatestone
Institute/July 02/2020
Time for France’s Emmanuel Macron to prove he is a different kind of president/Khaled
Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 02/2020
Iran must be held to account for global espionage, assassinations and terrorism
plots/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 02/2020
Time for France’s Emmanuel Macron to prove he is a different kind of president/Khaled
Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 02/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on July 02-03/2020
Ministry of Health announces 8 new
infections
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
The Ministry of Public Health on Thursday announced 8 new
coronavirus infection cases, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases
to 1796.
Health Minister tours Hotel Dieu de France departments
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
Minister of Public Health, Hamad Hassan, on Thursday visited the Ashrafieh-based
Hotel Dieu de France Hospital, where he was received by Rector of Saint Joseph
University Salim Daccache. During his tour in the various departments, Hassan
commended the advanced level of healthcare provided by the hospital, heaping
special praise on the facility's efforts in receiving and treating Covid-19
patients.Moreover, Hassan maintained that the Ministry of Public Health was keen
on the reputation of all of Lebanon's hospitals, whether state-owned or private.
UNIFIL head stresses tripartite efforts to preserve
stability along Blue Line
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col today
chaired a second special Tripartite meeting since the COVID-19 outbreak at a UN
position in Ras Al Naqoura. In a press release by UNIFIL, it said: "Discussions
focused on the situation along the Blue Line, air and ground violations as well
as other issues within the scope of UNIFIL's mandate under UN Security Council
resolution 1701. Major General Del Col called on the parties to fully utilize
UNIFIL's liaison and coordination channels to notify about any activities they
plan close to the Blue Line, so that UNIFIL could undertake the necessary
coordination to prevent potential misunderstandings. "I ask you to continue to
focus your efforts at maintaining stability," he said. "You have the ability and
responsibility to prevent unwanted escalations in tension along the Blue Line."
He underlined UNIFIL's confidence-building and conflict mitigation efforts and
asked that the parties fully avail of "the opportunities to deconflict and
enhance stability along the Blue Line." To this end, he called on the parties to
"avoid activities that could be deemed provocative by the other side, or that
otherwise have the potential to escalate with uncontrollable
consequences."Tripartite meetings have been held regularly under the auspices of
UNIFIL since the end of the 2006 war in south Lebanon as an essential conflict
management and confidence building mechanism."
LAF: Lebanese side has warned of Israel's decision to start
oil exploration during tripartite meeting in Ras Naqoura
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
The Lebanese army indicated on Thursday that the Lebanese side partaking in the
UNIFIL-chaired tripartite meeting had warned against the Israeli enemy decision
to start gas and oil explorations off Lebanon's maritime borders. "An
extraordinary tripartite meeting was held today in Ras Naqoura under the
chairmanship of UNIFIL General Commander, Major General Stefano Del Col, in
presence of a delegation of officers of the Lebanese Armed Forces," the LAF said
in a statement. "The meeting tackled the latest events that took place along the
Blue Line, in addition to the maritime and air violations," it indicated. "The
Lebanese side has reiterated its commitment to resolution 1701 in all its
provisions," it added. "It also highlighted the obligation that Israeli enemy
troops withdraw from all the occupied lands," the statement continued. "The
Lebanese side expressed its holding onto its maritime rights, and warned against
the dangers of the Israeli exploration decision," it concluded.
Berri receives phone call from his Jordanian counterpart,
meets Bassil, parliamentary delegation
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday received at his Ain el-Tineh residence a
parliamentary delegation of Bekaa-Baalbek Hermel MPs, with whom he discussed the
country's general situation and relevant developmental affairs, in particular
Beirut-Bekaa tunnel project and Arab Highway rehabilitation. The delegation
comprised MPs Ghazi Zeaiter, Cesar Maalouf, al-Walid Sukkarieh, Abdel Rahim Mrad,
Mohammad al-Karaawi and Salim Aoun. Speaking in the name of the delegation on
emerging, MP Zeaiter said that talks also dwelt on the Lebanese-Syrian
relations, whereby he indicated that coordination and opening borders with Syria
is a mutual interest for the two countries. Speaker Berri also met with
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Head, MP Gibran Bassil, with whom he discussed the
general situation, in particular the economic and financial conditions.
Following the meeting which lasted more than one hour and a half, MP Bassil left
Ain el-Tineh without giving any statement. On another level, Berri received a
phone call from his Jordanian counterpart, President of the Arab Parliamentary
Union, Atef Al Tarawneh, with whom he discussed the situation on the regional
scene in light of the Israeli plan to annex parts of the West Bank and the
Jordan Valley.
Diplomatic fears over Lebanon's stability; Government shakeup being eyed
Joseph Haboush/Al Arabiya English/Thursday 02 July 2020
Diplomats fear the worst is yet to come in Lebanon as the financial and economic
situations spiral out of control, and residents face difficulty obtaining their
most basic needs, including bread. Lebanese officials are also raising the
possibility of a government shakeup as Prime Minister Hassan Diab has failed to
put an end to the deteriorating socio-economic situation. The national currency
- pegged to the US dollar since 1997 at 1,507 pounds - has continued to tumble
daily, reaching 9,400 on Thursday. Earlier in the week, the government raised
the price of a 900-gram loaf of partially subsidized bread to 2,000 pounds from
1,500 pounds. This was the first price change in eight years. “The political
class … is running this place into the ground,” a Western diplomat based in
Beirut told Al Arabiya English. Prices of other necessities and commodities have
skyrocketed, including the cost of milk, diapers and meat and poultry. With the
depreciation of the local currency, nationwide anti-government protests since
last October and the recent coronavirus pandemic, the country’s central bank has
started printing local currency to pay public employees.Banks have also imposed
capital controls on depositors due to a shortage of US dollars in the market.
Today depositors cannot access their US dollars and must take local currency
based at an exchange rate of 3,850 per dollar. “There is a storm coming
economically,” the Western diplomat said.
Hassan Diab’s government
Meanwhile Diab’s government made up of Hezbollah and its allies, formed in
January, has failed to implement reforms promised and called for by the
international community. With more than $11 billion in soft loans and grants
pledged by the international community at the CEDRE conference in 2018, no
Lebanese government could carry out the reforms needed to unlock these funds.
Diab vowed that his government would tackle the electricity sector - a sector
that drains nearly $2 billion per year from the state treasury. A senior French
official has also spoken of his concerns about Lebanon and the lack of
government progress on reforms. “The worsening social crisis ... risks
increasing the risk of violence,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
said Wednesday. “The situation is alarming, with an economic, financial, social
and humanitarian crisis now reinforced by the risks of the coronavirus,” Le
Drian he said. On Thursday, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker called for Diab
to step down. “I personally believe, with all due respect to the current
government … that reconsidering the government composition has become
necessary,” Elie Ferzli said after meeting with former Prime Minister Saad
Hariri. Hariri, an opposition figure to the current government, is seen as the
leading Sunni figure in the country. In a veiled message of hoping to see Hariri
back at the government seat, Ferzli said: “We all agree that Prime Minister Saad
Hariri is one of the main entries, and even the main entry, to reunite the
Lebanese.” “I call upon his Excellency PM Diab to work to make it easier to find
an alternative government that can help find solutions in the Lebanese society,”
Ferzli said.
In addition to empty promises, Beirut’s negotiations have reportedly failed to
convince the International Monetary Fund to intervene. Lebanon asked for $10
billion, but conditions imposed by the IMF have not been met. Earlier in the
week, the Lebanese Army announced that it would stop providing meat to soldiers
on duty, due to the economic crisis. The average rank-and-file soldier is paid
around 1 million pounds per month. On the official exchange rate, that would
amount to around $660. Today, a soldier’s salary is worth a little over $100.
With purchasing power decreasing and prices increasing, local officials are also
concerned. “We are heading towards a disaster,” a senior political source within
the Lebanese government told Al Arabiya English. But despite the talk of a new
government, the senior political source said that there “is no alternative
government ready right now, so they [current ministers] will stay.”
The source added: “It’s bigger than Saad [Hariri] right now.”
International aid
And while Lebanon needs political and financial support from abroad, Diab took a
swipe at Washington on Thursday. “We have been silent a lot about diplomatic
practices entailing major violations of international norms and diplomacy, for
the sake of preserving brotherly relations,” Diab said at the beginning of a
cabinet meeting. "Some practices are blatantly interfering in Lebanon’s
affairs,” in an apparent reference to US Ambassador Dorothy Shea’s interview
last week where she criticized Hezbollah for destabilizing Lebanon. Shea said
the US was still evaluating whether Diab and his government were truly
independent and "not beholden to Hezbollah."There is also little Arab or Gulf
support for Diab. On June 25, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar
Gargash said the deterioration of Lebanon’s relations with the Arab and Gulf
states led to the country’s current economic crisis.
“Lebanon is partly paying the price for that right now,” he said.
Ferzli visits Hariri: Reconsidering government composition
has become necessary
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri received today at the Center House the Deputy
Speaker of Parliament Elie Ferzli, who said after the meeting: “The current
situation is not reassuring, especially on the socio-economic levels. It will
probably deteriorate and there are no positive signs. I think, in my capacity as
deputy in the Lebanese parliament, that the necessary steps must be carried out,
in order to think of the means of salvation, or at least put the country on the
path of salvation. The main way to do this is to contact the political leaders
who represent the real and true components of the Lebanese society. We all agree
that Prime Minister Saad Hariri is one of the main entries, and even the main
entry, to reunite the Lebanese. This house only thinks about ways to help
reunite the Lebanese, in order to save the country and end the deterioration
that we live on the economic and monetary levels, and on the level of the
divisions that are increasing day by day in the Lebanese arena. This my personal
conviction, and I will spread this culture”
Question: Isn’t it time to change the government?
Ferzli: I personally believe, with all due respect to the current government,
with its members and president, that reconsidering the government composition
has become necessary. I call upon his Excellency PM Diab to work in order to
make it easier to find an alternative government that can help find solutions in
the Lebanese society.
At the end of the meeting, Ferzli presented to Hariri a copy of his book
entitled: "The most beautiful history was tomorrow."
Hariri also received the Ambassador of the State of Palestine in Lebanon Ashraf
Dabbour in the presence of Hariri’s adviser for diplomatic affairs, Dr. Basem
Shabb.
The meeting focused on the situation in Lebanon and the region, especially what
is happening in occupied Palestine and the relations between the two countries.
--Hariri Press office
Black market dollar trading forces Lebanese shops to close
AFPT/hursday 02 July 2020
A string of top retail shops in Lebanon announced temporary closures on Thursday
after the country's currency lost five-sixths of its value, triggering sharp
price hikes. In a series of posts on social media, the popular stores said they
would temporarily halt sales as the Lebanese pound reached more than 9,000 to
the dollar on the black market. Although the currency is officially pegged at
1,507 pounds to the greenback, a shortage of hard currency has seen its street
value plummet to record lows since October. That has left retailers have
struggling to price their wares. "We'd rather shut down than significantly
increase our prices and lose your trust," said the Lebanon franchise of Korean
lifestyle brand Mumuso, which is headquartered in China. MikeSport also closed
its doors, saying it did not want to "get involved in the game of buying and
selling the dollar" on the black market. Several supermarkets, retail stores and
butcher shops have closed in recent days because of the currency crisis. "The
retail industry is going in the direction of a total shutdown or a temporary
closure until things become clearer in terms of (the) exchange rate," said Nabil
Gebrael, head of the Calia Group, which operates more than 20 retail stores in
the country. Some of the brands' managers protested Thursday in a central Beirut
square that was the epicenter of anti-government protests last year. Lebanon,
burdened by sovereign debt equivalent to 170 percent of its GDP, defaulted in
March for the first time in its history. The economic crunch has sparked months
of unprecedented protests against official corruption and the banking sector.
Beirut is currently in talks with the International Monetary Fund over a
potential bailout but negotiations are floundering.
Diab Criticizes Recent Activity of Ambassadors
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab criticized what he said are “currency manipulation”
driving the uncontrolled devaluing of the Lebanese pound, and indirectly lashed
out at recent diplomatic activity of foreign ambassadors in Lebanon.
“For the sake of friendships and (good) relations, we maintained silence on a
lot of diplomatic practices largely breaching international norms, but this
behavior surpassed fraternal and diplomatic relations,” said Diab at the
beginning of the Cabinet meeting at the Grand Serail. “Some local and foreign
sides want to besiege the Lebanese and involve Lebanon in the regional
conflicts,” he added. Criticizing the rising rate of the dollar to the Lebanese
pound, he said: “The dollar game is exposed now, they demand us to enforce
reforms but in turn provide cover for the corrupt and prevent us from having
access to the files of stolen funds.”
Rampling in Talks with Najm: Independence of the Judiciary is Essential
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Justice Minister Marie-Claude Najm held talks on Thursday with UK Ambassador to
Lebanon Chris Rampling in her office at the ministry, the National News Agency
reported. Rampling emphasized during his talks with the Minister on “the
independence of the Lebanese judiciary, mainly in the current circumstances the
country is passing through.”Discussions also highlighted the existing
cooperation between the Ministry of Justice and the British Embassy in Lebanon,
said NNA. Rampling confirmed the embassy’s support for the Ministry’s projects,
especially those related to judicial reform and the status of Lebanese prisons.
Report: France Fears Violence in Lebanon over Crisis
Naharnet/July 02/2020
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that the worsening
humanitarian and economic crisis in Lebanon increases the risk of escalation in
violence, the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday. Le Drian told a
parliamentary hearing that Lebanon’s crisis accompanied by an accelerating
collapse in the value of the Lebanese pound and the inability of depositors to
access their money in banks is worrisome, added the daily. Referring to recent
protests and inter-religious violence that broke out in several areas mainly in
the capital Beirut, Le Drian said: “The worsening social crisis threatens an
increase of violence.”The Minister said the government of Prime Minister Hassan
Diab must carry out the necessary reforms in order for international financial
institutions to help Lebanon and that he would visit Beirut soon to relay that
to Lebanese authorities.
Franjieh Warns of 'Civil War' during Upcoming Period of
'Hunger'
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh on Wednesday warned officials of the
potential for violence when “hunger” increases in the coming period. “Our main
concern is not to reach a civil war, seeing as we will enter a dangerous phase
characterized by hunger, and we have to overcome it without giving up our
principles,” said Franjieh during an interview with al-Mayadeen TV. “Officials
must show great awareness and national responsibility to avoid the threat of
internal strife,” he added. Noting that foreign pressures “target and starve
peoples” without managing to “topple regimes,” Franjieh said Lebanon’s current
crisis is the result of “long years of a rentier system and accumulations of the
economic policies that have been in place since decades, especially amid the
siege that is imposed on the countries of the Axis of Defiance.”Separately,
Franjieh said he wants Lebanon’s next presidents to be “an ally of the Axis of
Resistance,” noting that “circumstances will dictate the president’s name.”“My
deep-rooted convictions as part of the Axis of Resistance do not contradict with
being open and consensual. We are advocates of dialogue and we oppose the
elimination of any group or sect,” he added. “I will not abandon my allies, even
if I pay the price of that,” he said. Franjieh added: “My name is Suleiman
Franjieh, and the same as I will not change my name, I will also not change my
political stances. My stance is firm alongside the Axis of Resistance, but I
reject that my current actions be dictated on me.”
Jumblatt: Government has lost touch with reality
NNA/July 02/2020
Leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, took to Twitter
Thursday to accuse the government of losing touch with reality.
It seems that this government and its guardian angels have lost all touch with
the tragic reality as well as with the current deterioration, and [they] are
living is another world and imagining fictional conspiracies," Jumblatt tweeted.
"This is the government of nothingness, nihility and bankruptcy," he wrote.
ISF Arrests Counterfeit Money Gang
Naharnet/July 02/2020
The Internal Security Forces arrested three suspects accused of distributing
“large” amounts of counterfeit dollar banknotes and Lebanese pounds, the ISF
said in a statement on Thursday. ISF said it arrested two suspects, a Syrian and
Lebanese, on June 24 respectively in the Beirut neighborhoods of Tariq al-Jadideh
and Qasqas. Police confiscated $31,700 in counterfeit money and fake cheque
books in their possession, added the statement. The two admitted to distributing
large amounts of fake dollars and Lebanese pounds, and to having a suitcase with
fake notes hidden with another suspect, Syrian, residing in Beit Mery. Police
arrested the suspect in relation and found $9,900 and L.L.550,000 in his
possession at his residence in Beit Mery. The suspects were charged with
possessing forged bank notes and police efforts are ongoing to find other
members related to the gang.
UNIFIL Head Stresses Tripartite Efforts to Preserve
Stability along Blue Line
Naharnet/July 02/2020
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col on
Thursday chaired a second special Tripartite meeting since the COVID-19 outbreak
with senior officers from the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Israeli army
at a U.N. position in Ras al-Naqoura, UNIFIL said. Discussions focused on the
situation along the Blue Line, air and ground violations as well as other issues
within the scope of UNIFIL’s mandate under U.N. Security Council resolution
1701, UNIFIL said in a statement. Del Col called on the parties to fully utilize
UNIFIL’s liaison and coordination channels to notify about any activities they
plan close to the Blue Line, so that UNIFIL could "undertake the necessary
coordination to prevent potential misunderstandings," UNIFIL added. “I ask you
to continue to focus your efforts at maintaining stability,” Del Col said. “You
have the ability and responsibility to prevent unwanted escalations in tension
along the Blue Line.”Del Col also underlined UNIFIL’s "confidence-building and
conflict mitigation efforts" and asked that the parties fully avail of “the
opportunities to deconflict and enhance stability along the Blue Line.” To this
end, he called on the parties to “avoid activities that could be deemed
provocative by the other side, or that otherwise have the potential to escalate
with uncontrollable consequences.”Tripartite meetings have been held regularly
under the auspices of UNIFIL since the end of the 2006 war in south Lebanon as
"an essential conflict management and confidence building mechanism," UNIFIL
said.
Diab Criticizes Recent Activity of Ambassadors
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab criticized what he said are “currency manipulation”
driving the uncontrolled devaluing of the Lebanese pound, and indirectly lashed
out at recent diplomatic activity of foreign ambassadors in Lebanon. “For the
sake of friendships and (good) relations, we maintained silence on a lot of
diplomatic practices largely breaching international norms, but this behavior
surpassed fraternal and diplomatic relations,” said Diab at the beginning of the
Cabinet meeting at the Grand Serail. “Some local and foreign sides want to
besiege the Lebanese and involve Lebanon in the regional conflicts,” he added.
Criticizing the rising rate of the dollar to the Lebanese pound, he said: “The
dollar game is exposed now, they demand us to enforce reforms but in turn
provide cover for the corrupt and prevent us from having access to the files of
stolen funds.”
Sfeir Meets Saudi Envoy, Says Lebanese to Get Dollar
'through Banks'
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Association of Banks chief Salim Sfeir on Thursday announced that dollar
transactions will soon be carried out “through banks” and not through money
exchange shops or the black market. Sfeir voiced his surprising remarks after
meeting Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari at the latter’s residence in
Yarze. “We miss seeing Saudi brothers and Lebanon has not forgotten the
kingdom’s generosity,” Sfeir said. “Our main goal is the return of economic life
to normal and dollars will be provided through banks with the help of the
central bank,” Sfeir added. He said he has visited the Saudi ambassador to “put
him in the picture of the economic situation that Lebanon is going through and
to stress that Lebanon cannot forget Saudi Arabia’s generosity.”Referring to his
participation in Cabinet’s session earlier in the day, Sfeir said the conferees
“discussed means to control the exchange rate,” adding that “dollars will be
provided through banks with help from the central bank.”
U.S. Says to Work with France for Better Future for Lebanon
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Lebanese leaders must take tough decisions and the U.S. will work with France
and others for a better future for Lebanon, U.S. State Department Spokesperson
Morgan Ortagus said on Thursday. In an interview with al-Hurra TV, Ortagus added
that Washington still sees Hizbullah as a destabilizing force in Lebanon. The
Spokesperson however added that the U.S. will continue to help Lebanon
diplomatically, economically and politically.
Wahhab Urges Diab to Quit, Says There are 'Negotiations on
New Govt.'
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Arab Tawhid Party leader ex-minister Wiam Wahhab on Thursday called on Prime
Minister Hassan Diab to resign before being “ousted.”“I call on PM Diab to
resign before they oust him through street action, because there are
negotiations behind the scenes on forming a government and the disagreement is
only over some details,” Wahhab tweeted. “My call for him is from a position of
admiration because he is a respectable man,” Wahhab added. Wahhab's statement
comes a few hours after Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli visited ex-PM Saad Hariri and
called for the formation of a new government.
Hariri Says Has 'Conditions' to Return as Premier
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Thursday announced that he has
his conditions to return as premier, while noting that he is “not negotiating
with anyone” over such a move. “I’m not pushing to become premier, I’m not
thinking of becoming premier, I have not talked to anyone and no one is
negotiating with me,” Hariri said in a chat with reporters, pointing out that he
did not discuss such a possibility with Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli who visited
him earlier in the day. “I don’t consider myself a savior of Lebanon, seeing as
you cannot clap with one hand, and I had offered concessions for three years at
the expense of my popular base in order to rescue the country,” Hariri added. “I
did not do that for the premiership post, and the proof is that I responded to
people’s demand and resigned, unlike others who are clinging to their posts,”
the ex-PM went on to say. Hariri explained that his conditions to return to the
post are related to the country’s situation and what is needed in order to
“rescue” it from its economic and financial crises. “There needs to be a totally
different way of action,” he said. Asked about the possibility of naming
Mohammed Baasiri to the post, Hariri said: “My conditions are clear and I will
not offer a cover to someone close to me if they act on their own.”“A political
camp is in charge of this government and if they decide to leave it they are
free. The issue of who the next PM will be is not related to the current
government,” Hariri said. The former premier also noted that the International
Monetary Fund is ready to offer assistance to Lebanon “but it requires reforms
that have not been implemented until the moment.”“We have an economic crisis and
reform is needed, while PM (Hassan) Diab did not talk today about electricity or
reforms but rather attacked the diplomatic corps of whom we are seeking to
borrow funds,” Hariri lamented.
Top Lebanon Retailers on Strike as Currency Plummets
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/July 02/2020
A string of top retail shops in Lebanon announced temporary closures on Thursday
after the country's currency lost five sixths of its value, triggering sharp
price hikes. In a series of posts on social media, the popular stores said they
would temporarily halt sales as the Lebanese pound reached more than 9,000 to
the dollar on the black market. Although the currency is officially pegged at
1,507 pounds to the greenback, a shortage of hard currency has seen its street
value plummet to record lows since October. That has left retailers have
struggling to price their wares. "We'd rather shut down than significantly
increase our prices and lose your trust," said the Lebanon franchise of Korean
lifestyle brand Mumuso, which is headquartered in China. MikeSport also closed
its doors, saying it did not want to "get involved in the game of buying and
selling the dollar" on the black market. Several supermarkets, retail stores and
butcher shops have closed in recent days because of the currency crisis. "The
retail industry is going in the direction of a total shutdown or a temporary
closure until things become clearer in terms of (the) exchange rate," said Nabil
Gebrael, head of the Calia Group which operates more than 20 retail stores in
the country. Some of the brands' managers protested Thursday in a central Beirut
square that was the epicenter of anti-government protests last year. "The
company is losing and ... (the customers) think we are robbing them," Samir
Saliba, owner of sportswear retailer MikeSport, told The Associated Press. "We
want a clear economic policy to know how to move forward and not buy our dollars
from the black market and be humiliated with the brokers and money changers."The
protesters called on the government to resign and urged other stores to join
their protest shutdown. Lebanon, burdened by sovereign debt equivalent to 170
percent of its GDP, defaulted in March for the first time in its history. The
economic crunch has sparked months of unprecedented protests against official
corruption and the banking sector. Lebanon is currently in talks with the
International Monetary Fund over a potential bail out but negotiations are
floundering.
Cabinet Meeting Kicks Off at Grand Serail
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab chaired the Cabinet meeting at the Grand Serail on
Thursday in the presence of Central Bank governor Riad Salameh and Head of the
Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir, the National News agency reported.
Al-Jadeed TV station reporter said Salameh and Sfeir’s participation could be
attributed to Lebanon’s bailout negotiations with the International Monetary
Fund. Reports said IMF talks have hit “rock bottom,” and IMF's managing director
Kristalina Georgieva said earlier that talks with Lebanon have been "difficult".Before
joining the Cabinet meeting, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said it is “unlikely
for the Cabinet to decide today on the recent resignation of Alain
Bifani.”Bifani, a senior member of Lebanon's finance ministry who is part of a
government team negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, is the second
member of said team to quit this month over the handling of the crisis by
Lebanese officials.Earlier this month Henri Chaoul, an advisor to the finance
ministry in talks with the IMF, also stepped down. On Lebanon’s fuel crisis
threatening to plunge the country into darkness, Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar
said: “Power rationing is caused by lack of fuel, and the reason behind that is
judicial after the seizure of two fuel oil vessels,” by bondholders.
Rampling in Talks with Najm: Independence of the Judiciary
is Essential
Naharnet/July 02/2020
Justice Minister Marie-Claude Najm held talks on Thursday with UK Ambassador to
Lebanon Chris Rampling in her office at the ministry, the National News Agency
reported. Rampling emphasized during his talks with the Minister on “the
independence of the Lebanese judiciary, mainly in the current circumstances the
country is passing through.”Discussions also highlighted the existing
cooperation between the Ministry of Justice and the British Embassy in Lebanon,
said NNA. Rampling confirmed the embassy’s support for the Ministry’s projects,
especially those related to judicial reform and the status of Lebanese prisons.
Lebanese cabinet member: ‘international community closed to
us’
The Arab Weekly/July 02/2020
Unclear if statement reflects government intent to resign.
BEIRUT – For the first time since the formation of the current government in
Lebanon, a prominent member of Hassan Diab’s cabinet has publicly admitted that
“the international community is closed to us.”
The statement was made in an interview with journalists by Deputy Prime Minister
and Defence Minister Zeina Akar Adra (an Orthodox Christian married to a Sunni).
Adra spends most of her time at the government palace where the prime minister
is, and that led political sources to consider that her words reflected the
state of confusion in which the current government, founded five months ago and
controlled by Hezbollah, evolves, lacking coordination and cohesion.
Adra also admitted that the international community’s reluctance to deal with
Lebanon was a “political decision," noting that external powers invoked the
question of absence of “reforms” to justify their ban on foreign aid to Lebanon.
Lebanese political sources could not determine whether or not the deputy prime
minister's declarations indicated the possibility of the current government
being pushed to resign. They pointed out, however, that the real problem facing
President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah at the same time is former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri’s refusal to form a new government except under certain
non-negotiable conditions.
The sources indicated that these conditions are not acceptable, at least not
yet, for Aoun and his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, and especially for Hezbollah,
which is adamant on having representation in any Lebanese government.
Meanwhile, the French minister of foreign affairs expressed on Wednesday his
country's concern about the crisis in Lebanon and said that social discontent
could lead to an escalation of violence.
“The situation is alarming in light of the existence of an economic, financial,
social and humanitarian crisis, which is now exacerbated by the risks of the
COVID-19 pandemic,” said Jean-Yves Le Drian during a French Parliament session.
Le Drian called on the Lebanese government to start implementing needed reforms
so that the international community can extend a helping hand to Lebanon,
indicating that he will visit Lebanon soon to clearly inform the authorities of
this.
American pressure on the political class in Lebanon also increased in the
context of a plan to screen between genuine Hezbollah supporters on the one hand
and those who are participating in the current Hezbollah government to serve
particular interests on the other, especially since the continued control of the
pro-Iranian party over Lebanese institutions will double US sanctions on the
country.
The recent controversy over statements made by US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy
Shea revealed that the Lebanese decision has become hostage to Hezbollah, and
this would reinforce the American administration's tendency to increase pressure
on the country already experiencing an unprecedented economic and financial
crisis.
Observers point out that the “solidarity” that the current poles of power are
keen on highlighting at every successive meeting between them, and their
statements that tend to absolve the government of any wrongdoing and accuse
foreign powers of aggravating the situation, are nothing more than
tranquillisers meant to sedate regular Lebanese citizen who find themselves
facing imminent hunger in light of soaring prices of basic commodities.
Talking to reporters, Adra insisted that the current government was not put in
place simply to buy extra time, stressing at the same time the need for all
Lebanese to “join hands to succeed, and if we all come together as one team, we
can raise Lebanon up without waiting for foreign aid.”
Adra stressed that the government, despite all the talk about resignations,
“continues to work and produce and there are no splits within it.” “When I get
to a point where I can't work anymore, I will quit. We came to work and persist
in working,” she said.
Autopsy of a Collapse
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/July 02/2020
In an interview, Mike Azar discusses Lebanon’s ongoing difficulties in reaching
a consensus on a financial revival plan.
Mike Azar is a debt finance advisor and former professorial lecturer of
international economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies in Washington, D.C. He comments on Lebanon’s financial crisis under the
Twitter handle @AzarsTweets. Diwan interviewed Azar in late June to get his
perspective on Lebanon’s deteriorating economic situation, and on the ongoing
negotiations between its government and the International Monetary Fund.
Michael Young: How inevitable is hyperinflation in Lebanon, and what would cause
this?
Mike Azar: Nothing is inevitable. Hyperinflation is a psychological phenomenon.
When businesses expect prices to rise rapidly, they preemptively increase their
prices and consumers spend their money more quickly, expecting it to lose value
if they wait. This becomes a self-perpetuating cycle that is difficult to break.
In many cases, countries that experience hyperinflation have had to undertake
what is called “currency reform,” whereby the old currency is removed from
circulation and a completely new one is introduced. Once confidence is
completely lost in a currency, it is difficult to reestablish.
Prices are increasing today because of the shortage of U.S. dollars, the rapid
increase in the supply of Lebanese pounds, and the declining confidence in the
Lebanese economy and the pound. People are withdrawing pounds—including from
their U.S. dollar accounts at an exchange rate higher than the official rate—and
using them to purchase U.S. dollars to preserve the purchasing power of their
wealth. This is causing the supply of dollars in the market to fall while the
supply of pound banknotes is increasing rapidly.
There is another source of demand for dollars. Many businesses are no longer
accepting checks or credit cards because they prefer to receive U.S. dollars or
Lebanese pounds, which can be exchanged for dollars at exchange shops. Given
that Lebanon imports as much as it does, most businesses need dollars to pay for
their imports. Thus, as the demand for dollars increases relative to the
available supply in the market, the pound’s value is falling. This pushes up the
price of imports and, by extension, consumer prices. The falling value of the
pound and the declining confidence in the currency create incentives for people
to spend their money quickly. This results in more pounds chasing fewer goods,
which, again, generates more price inflation.
MY: Can you explain what the disagreement is between the government and the
central bank over Lebanon’s financial losses? Why is it important?
MA: Lebanon’s central bank, or Banque du Liban (BDL), has accrued more than $45
billion in unfunded liabilities in U.S. dollars to the banking sector. That
means it owes the banks $45 billion more in dollars than it has in dollar assets
to pay them over time. The central bank’s position is that these unfunded
liabilities, or losses, can be made up over time using its future seignorage
profits. Seignorage profits are typically defined as the profits a central bank
earns from the printing of banknotes—the difference between the face value of
the bills and the printing costs. However, BDL obviously cannot print dollars.
Its definition of seignorage is, therefore, unusual. From BDL’s perspective, it
can create “local dollars,” which are essentially digital dollars stuck in the
Lebanese banking system. They can be spent domestically using checks or credit
cards, but cannot be transferred abroad or withdrawn as dollar banknotes.
However, they can be withdrawn as Lebanese pound banknotes. In effect, the
central bank’s view is that it can repay the banks what it owes them in the form
of these “digital” local dollars which it creates through seignorage. These
local dollars are, from an economic perspective, the same as pounds.
The government’s position is that a large portion of these unfunded liabilities
must be written off because making up losses of this scale, which represent more
than 100 percent of GDP, using seignorage profits will have a disastrous impact
on the money supply, the exchange rate, and inflation. The position of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) is consistent with this view.
MY: On June 29, the director general of the Finance Ministry, Alain Bifani,
resigned from his post. How do you interpret his resignation?
MA: There is clearly a lot of frustration from individuals in the government
over its failure to implement reforms quickly enough, though Bifani was witness
to 20 years of such failure during his long tenure at the ministry. He was also
a key architect of the government’s Financial Recovery Plan released last April
30. The plan is on its last legs because of its poor roll out, and the
government’s incredibly weak communications strategy and lack of engagement with
stakeholders. There is also opposition to it from powerful groups in the country
whose personal interests it threatens. If the government appears unable to
implement any reforms at this critical juncture and is unable to defend its own
financial rescue plan, it is easy to see why Bifani resigned. However, I can’t
tell you why he resigned now rather than at any other point during the last 20
years.
MY: At some point the government will have to act to stop the monetary collapse.
When might it do so and what does it need to do?
MA: I cannot predict when the government and monetary authorities will act. What
the government needs to do has been repeated ad nauseum. For example, it must
restore confidence in the economy to encourage people to want to hold pounds and
increase the flow of U.S. dollars into the country. Finalizing an IMF program
will unlock dollar funding and provide credibility to the government’s reform
program. Recapitalizing the central bank and the banking sector by dealing with
the unfunded liabilities and losses in the system will allow us to control the
growth in the money supply and restart the financial intermediation needed to
grow the economy. Political reforms will demonstrate a genuine willingness to
address the root cause of these economic challenges, which is, at the heart,
political dysfunction and corruption. In the end, real and inclusive economic
growth is the goal, but it cannot be achieved without moving on all of these
fronts.
In the very short term, the policies needed to limit price inflation will be
painful. For example, the monetary authorities may need to limit the expansion
of the money supply—for example, by setting stricter pound withdrawal limits or
not allowing withdrawals from U.S. dollar accounts in pounds at higher exchange
rates. This needs to be done very carefully because doing so will push people
further into poverty by curtailing their spending. Having delayed so long before
beginning to face the country’s economic challenges, we are now in the
unfortunate position of having to consider such difficult choices.
MY: What are you hearing about Lebanon’s talks with the IMF?
MA: The IMF has indicated that the talks are progressing slowly because of
disagreements among the various Lebanese stakeholders. This internal
dysfunction, along with no demonstrated will from the government to implement
reform, is seriously undermining the IMF negotiations. There is much that the
government could have done to better prepare for such negotiations and to show a
good-faith willingness to implement reforms. We do not need to wait for an IMF
program to start. If we continue like this, the talks will collapse. The window
is rapidly closing before us.
MY: Can one seriously expect the politicians to block an IMF bailout, given that
this would bring the entire edifice of power they created to come crashing down?
MA: One could argue that it is precisely an IMF program, the associated reforms,
and the required financial audits that could weaken Lebanon’s existing power
structure.
Rescue talks with the IMF 'hit the rocks' as Lebanese
suffer
Samia Nakhoul/Reuters/July 02/2020
As accelerating poverty fuels anger, despair and fear of a social explosion,
efforts by Lebanon's ruling elite to salvage the country from a financial
meltdown with IMF help seem to be going in reverse.
A country known across the Middle East for its glamorous lifestyle and
commercial savoir faire now projects images of people begging on the streets,
scavenging in the garbage for something to eat or trading furniture for food.
Several current and former Lebanese officials, diplomats, international
officials, economists and analysts agreed that talks with the IMF to rescue
Lebanon from an economic crisis are going nowhere. Meanwhile, time is running
out.
“This (IMF talks) is hitting the rocks” says Nasser Saidi, a former economy
minister and central banker.
Most of the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity say the political class
grouped around sectarian, dynastic rulers, far from agreeing a joint approach,
is still arguing for their own interests – and even whether Lebanon is really
bankrupt.
Two members of Lebanon's negotiating team have quit in a month, both over what
they described as attempts to massage huge financial losses set out in the
government plan. “They are not negotiating a (IMF) programme”, says one senior
source privy to the talks. “There’s no (Lebanese) consensus on the diagnosis so
what can they possibly negotiate?”
Lebanon, with a population of 6 million, is fast running out of dollars. The
state, its revenues collapsing, is printing local currency to pay public
employees – an estimated 800,000-strong state payroll padded by politicians.
"There is a real risk of explosion," says one top Western diplomat, adding that
a third of a million people had lost their jobs since October, when mass
protests against the entrenched political class forced the government to resign.
DEADLOCK OVER NUMBERS AND REFORM
As a lockdown imposed to fight COVID-19 unwinds, outrage that fuelled last
autumn's protests is resurging, angrier now and with fire-bomb attacks on banks
– the biggest target of popular ire after the political elites with which they
are closely entwined.
A new government finally took its place early this year. Although it was billed
as technocratic, its members are all nominees of the sectarian power-brokers.
Alongside technocrats are party placemen, and critics say Prime Minister Hassan
Diab is beholden to his patrons, foremost among them the powerful Iran-backed
Shi'ite group Hezbollah, its Christian allies headed by President Michel Aoun,
and the Shi'ite Amal party of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
Diab has repeatedly denied his government favours political interests. His
office did not respond to questions from Reuters.
Ultimately, the country is bankrupt, and is not going to be able to service all
of its vast debt, much of which is held by its central bank and local lenders.
But no one has come up with an agreed strategy to share out the losses among
bank depositors, shareholders, foreign bondholders and the state.
The first challenge is accepting the size of the losses. The IMF has endorsed
government figures that suggest a shortfall of more than $90 billion. But the
banks, the central bank and members of parliament representing powerful
political factions say it is only around half as big. Critics call that an
accounting trick, based on a dubious exchange rate.
Diab, the prime minister, said in a statement on Tuesday that the government was
committed to the figures in its plan. But political factions have lined up
behind an effort to demand it lower its estimate of losses, in line with figures
put forward by the central bank and banks.
Several sources said the IMF had tried to persuade the central bank to accept
the higher numbers, but bank governor Riad Salameh was digging in his heels.
Salameh declined to comment and said he wasn't aware of such criticism.
A parliamentary fact-finding committee said on Wednesday it had calculated
overall losses in the system at 60 trillion-122 trillion Lebanese pounds, a
range between a quarter and half the amount recognised by the government and
accepted by the IMF.
"It's a big difference," said its chair, Ibrahim Kanaan of President Michel
Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, flanked by MPs from all of the other main
political parties. "These are the options which I hope the government will study
... so we can go into the next phase, the negotiation phase, with one delegation
and one vision."
The IMF declined to comment on its discussions with Lebanese delegations, but
referred Reuters to earlier remarks, including that the government's original
figures are "broadly in the right order of magnitude".
“It is incredible that a bunch of parliamentarians in a failed state are trying
to question the expertise of the IMF," Saidi, the ex-minister, said. "There is
no way the IMF is going to accept it.”
Nor will accepting the numbers be enough. Lebanon must also tackle the cause of
the problem: unsustainable government spending handed out by politicians to
reward their supporters.
The inflated public payroll and its costly pensions will have to be cut. First
on almost everyone’s list is Electricite du Liban (EdL), the state power
utility, which loses about $2bn a year.
To even start an IMF negotiation, the government will need to make "anchor"
reforms that it has so far ignored. Customs, now under party fiefdom, must be
placed under regulatory authority; a single treasury account must be set up for
expenditures and revenues at the finance ministry; exchange rates must be
unified.
NOT RISING TO THE CRISIS
Since October, depositors have been largely denied access to their dollar
accounts. About three quarters of all deposits are in dollars and the central
bank and successive governments have used the banking system to finance the
state, in what critics say is a national equivalent to a Ponzi scheme.
The pound has lost 80% of its value since mass protests against the sectarian
ruling oligarchy erupted last October. The social consequences have been
terrible.
Lebanon’s middle class is sinking. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that some
48% of Lebanese lived below the poverty line.
Food prices have doubled and unemployment has forced many onto charity and food
banks. And if the state runs out of the dollars it has been spending to
subsidise bread, medicine and fuel – as it must sooner or later without foreign
aid – Lebanon could face mass hunger.
For decades, foreign donors led by France, the United States and Britain with
periodic injections from Gulf Arab states, have kept Lebanon afloat. But they
are no longer willing to bail it out without reform. If the IMF walks away,
Beirut should not expect a rescue from countries that have helped in the past.
“If this road (IMF) is closed all other roads will be shut”, says the Western
diplomat. “They need to have real, verifiable reforms as required by the IMF,
even if they are not perfect."
"No European or Gulf Arab country, much less America is coming to save Lebanon;
Lebanese leaders should muster the will to rescue their country."
(Editing by Tom Perry and Peter Graff)
At this rate, Lebanon may not survive to see its 100th
birthday
Michael Young/The National/July 02/2020
The country is rapidly running out of foreign currency reserves, which are
essential given that Lebanon imports the vast majority of what it consumes
On June 29, the director general of Lebanon’s Finance Ministry, Alain Bifani,
resigned from his position. He is the second official involved in negotiations
with the International Monetary Fund to resign in less than two weeks, amid
signs that the government’s talks with the organisation are stalling.
Mr Bifani is the man who has estimated Lebanon’s losses on behalf of the
government, but his figures are seen as too high by the central bank and by a
parliamentary committee looking at the figure. Most disheartening is the fact
that this sterile debate is wasting valuable time as Lebanon sinks deeper into a
very serious economic crisis, with the national currency in freefall.
The political class, like the ineffective government of Prime Minister Hassan
Diab, is to blame for this situation. Last week, President Michel Aoun convened
a national dialogue session that was a flop, as many key political
representatives boycotted the event. Yet if Lebanon is to reach a deal with the
IMF, a similar format will be needed to bring the politicians and parties
together so that they can arrive at a consensus on reform needed to progress on
a bailout.
Mr Aoun’s dialogue did not directly address economic issues, only “social
peace.” With Lebanon on the threshold of hyperinflation, such an agenda made no
sense. Indeed, the president has been largely absent as a national leader. The
post-1989 constitution does not leave presidents with many prerogatives, but it
does ordain them as “symbols of the nation’s unity.” Therefore, Mr Aoun is
ideally placed, in principle at least, to help steer the politicians towards a
compromise on reform.
Mr Bifani told a television station that his resignation came because he
disagreed with the way the authorities were managing the economic crisis. If
Lebanon fails to reach a deal with the IMF, the consequences would not only be
catastrophic for the country, they would have existential repercussions, as
Lebanon is rapidly running out of foreign currency reserves. These are
absolutely essential for a country that imports the vast majority of what it
consumes.
The ineffectiveness of the Diab government and of the political leadership in
general has been breathtaking. The Lebanese pound has been collapsing in recent
weeks, even as the government has printed more money. This suggests we are
heading into hyperinflation territory. Economic reform will require that the
politicians and parties surrender part of their corruption networks so that a
deal can be agreed with the IMF. However, for now none of them want to give
anything up before securing political concessions in exchange.
Lebanon could disappear as a country on its hundredth anniversary If reforms are
blocked and an IMF deal isn’t agreed. This should not come as a surprise.
Lebanese politics has largely become a game of destructive brinkmanship of late.
The prevailing wisdom is that the politicians and parties do not want to adopt
the reforms necessary for an IMF deal. It is easy to assume the worst about
them, but such a radical judgment is not necessarily true for a number of
reasons. First, the entire system would collapse if no accord is reached,
meaning not only would their corruption networks dry up, but so too would many
of these leaders’ power base in the political order. Moreover, Hezbollah, the
main player in the political system, has shown a desire to preserve Lebanon as
an entity that can protect the party from its enemies. That is why it was so
keen to safeguard the political class and the sectarian structure when protests
began last October, and that is why it is bolstering the Diab government today.
Lebanon’s disintegration, which the absence of an IMF deal would ensure, would
not only lead to geographic and institutional fragmentation, it would remove the
covering of the state that had served Hezbollah well.
People queue to buy bread at a local bakery in Beirut, Lebanon on June 27.
Lebanese officials announced more measures to stabilise the nation’s plunging
local currency and rein in soaring food prices that have triggered nationwide
protests. Hasan Shaaban/Bloomberg
So while Hezbollah would probably emerge stronger than other groups in Lebanon,
it would also have to manage an increasingly unviable situation, while having to
answer to over a million of its impoverished Shiite brethren. Unless an IMF
bailout is forthcoming, this is a burden the paramilitary organisation could
soon find overwhelming — regardless of its illicit financing networks. Moreover,
this catastrophic situation would be open-ended without the introduction of
reforms.
Therefore, given the starkness of the choice, the only option at this stage is
for the sectarian political leaders to discuss a package deal that would allow
Lebanon to move forward with the IMF. This can only take place in a closed forum
portrayed as an emergency national summit on the economic situation. The
politicians and parties would have to use this venue to come to a broad
agreement over what they are willing to concede in order to begin implementing a
reform project. The equation is simple: if reforms are blocked and an IMF deal
isn’t agreed, Lebanon could disappear as a country on its hundredth anniversary.
It will become a Hobbesian environment – without food, fuel, medicine and all
the things that a normal country takes for granted. The cartel in power would
salvage little from the wreckage. That is why its members must negotiate an
agreement among themselves. Mr Aoun has not achieved much, but at least he can
offer the country a road map and save some shards from his shattered mandate.
*Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East
programme, in Beirut
The Organization For The Liberation Of Argentina (OLA) – Building Support For
The Iranian Regime And Hizbullah
MEMRI/July 02/2020
The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and
Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here.
Note to media and government: For a full copy of this report, send an email with
the title of the report in the subject line to media@memri.org. Please include
your name, title, and organization in your email.
Ever since the founding of the Ayatollah regime in Iran, the country has
invested significantly in the export of the principles of the revolution to the
world at large, in establishing local support bases in other countries, and in
undermining local governments abroad. One of its most prominent measures to
achieve these aims is by means of proxies which receive financial, political,
propaganda and organizational assistance in the guise of armed militias which
gradually infiltrate local politics, such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis
in Yemen, the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, and the Shi'ite clerics in Nigeria. In
addition, the Iranian regime and its protégé, Hizbullah, operate various types
of media, including social media accounts which address local audiences in their
own languages. Thus, in an attempt to reach a Spanish-speaking audience, Ali
Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, has both a website and a Twitter account in
Spanish.[1] Furthermore, in 2001 the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting set
up a Spanish-language television channel called HispanTV.
The Organization for the Liberation of Argentina (OLA), a political organization
headed by Argentine-born Shi'ites, appears to support Iranian regime flagship
objectives to export the Iranian Islamic revolution's principles and values and
to build support for the Iranian regime and for Hizbullah in Latin America.
Known in Argentina by its Spanish name, Organización para la Liberación
Argentina,OLA was established in 2012 by a member of an Islamic Center in
Argentina and a well-known local political activist. He heads the organization
with his wife, a fellow activist, and with the organization's National Director.
The OLA leadership comprises active members of the Shi'ite community in
Argentina and maintains ties to local Shi'ite institutions and religious
leaders, most notably to the Al-Tawhid mosque in Buenos Aires, where prominent
cleric Mohsen Rabbani was a key suspect in the bombings of the Israeli embassy
and the AMIA[2] building in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.
Since its establishment in 2012, OLA has openly supported Iran's proxy
organization, Hizbullah, and continues to do so despite Argentina's official
designation of Hizbullah as a terrorist organization in July 2019[3] – a
decision which OLA criticizes. OLA also supports the Iranian Islamic Revolution
and its leaders and fully incorporates its principles, motives and terminology
into the OLA political platform, which is critical of the government's
neoliberal economic measures and of American influence in the country. In this
way, the organization, which aims to address the general local population and
not necessarily the local Shi'ite community, introduces the ideology of the
Shi'ite Islamic revolution into the largely Catholic population.
OLA appears to be gaining support, and one of its candidates have been elected
to local office. The organization and its leaders have social media accounts,
primarily on Facebook (with more than 3,000 followers) and on Twitter, where
they post and share the speeches and images of Iranian officials and the "Axis
of the Resistance" as well as videos produced by official Hizbullah sources and
other media outlets based in Iran which promote jihad and martyrdom and have
been translated into Spanish.
Though no formal ties have been identified between OLA and high-ranking Iranian
officials or government institutions, its highly-indoctrinated leadership
constitutes a potential support base which Iran and Hizbullah could utilize in
the future to garner political backing, and for the recruitment of local
operatives.
This report provides an overview of the ways in which OLA portrays Hizbullah and
the Iranian regime to its local audience, primarily as seen through its Facebook
page and the Facebook accounts of its leaders.
Overview Of OLA
OLA was established by its leader in 2012, when Argentina was in the throes of a
dire economic situation. The country's economy has suffered from high inflation
rates and crippling external debt and in recent years these problems have
worsened,[4] resulting in an unprecedented number of layoffs in the public and
private sectors. The situation has directly impacted Argentina's lower and
middle classes, and helped social-justice organizations like OLA to gain
traction.
OLA regularly organizes conferences and demonstrations and broadcasts a
bi-weekly radio program with a local news agency. The leader also presides over
The Academy for Strategic Thinking, which appears to be an additional platform
for spreading OLA ideology. In early 2018, the leader and several others were
arrested on charges of attacking the authorities during a mass demonstration
against the government, and were released one week later.
Some members of OLA have run for local office, and at least one of its leaders
was elected in 2019 to the City Council of a northeastern Argentinian province
capital. In 2019, the leader's wife also ran for the position of national deputy
to represent the same province as part of a list presented by the largest party
in the Argentinian Congress since 1987.[5] Another OLA member also ran in local
elections for the City Council of Salta.
Ideology
The OLA ideology focuses on two main issues: the loss of Argentinian economic
sovereignty and the loss of its military independence, and blames the United
States for both. With respect to economic independence, OLA argues that since
the U.S. is Argentina's largest creditor and beneficiary of a large portion of
its total export revenue, it is primarily responsible for Argentina's economic
woes. OLA claims that along with a number of international organizations,
American companies have destroyed the Argentinian economy by "pillaging" much of
the country's resources.
To resist the pull of what it refers to as the "new world order," OLA calls for
the implementation of "Import Substitution Industrialization" to recover
Argentina's economic sovereignty. The organization further argues that since
Argentina's territorial sovereignty is currently also being "violated" by NATO
powers, Argentina cannot recover its economic sovereignty without strengthening
its armed forces.
OLA seeks to expand the independence and reach of Argentina's security
apparatuses. According to OLA, the U.S. not only controls Argentina's economy,
but also its security system, which OLA claims is evidenced by the fact that
"NATO" is currently "occupying" Argentina's Falkland Islands (represented by the
UK). As a result, and in order to "liberate" the Falklands and recover
Argentina's territorial sovereignty, OLA calls for the "re-nationalization" and
strengthening of Argentina's armed forces, declaring that these must be at the
forefront of its national development project. It also maintains that if
Argentina wants to resist the global economic hegemony led by the U.S., it must
strengthen its army's technological, industrial and scientific capabilities.
As stated, OLA's leadership, which is mostly Shi'ite, sees a clear connection
between what it views as Argentina's necessary struggle for economic and
national independence from American hegemony, and the struggle of the Iranian
Islamic Revolution and the "axis of resistance" against U.S. hegemony. This is
evident from a 2015 Facebook post in which the leader refers to the connection
between his being a Shia Muslim, his organization's agenda, and Iran and
Hizbullah's struggle: "As a Muslim it is impossible for me to consider myself
outside the logic of the struggles against oppression that are taking place
everywhere in the world and in particular in the Middle East and Asia. Being a
Shi'ite I find that the role of Hizbullah and Iran is fundamental. Together with
Syria, the Lebanese Shi'ite organization [i.e Hizbullah] and the Islamic
Republic are fundamental to the Palestinian resistance and sustain the balance
of forces in the Middle East. As an international analyst and political
activist, I cannot fail to see and analyze the tactics used by the axis of
resistance, and cannot... forget the breaches of sovereignty perpetrated by the
main world powers, nor the collusion and betrayal of a dozen of the Arab
countries, nor the restraint of some leaders in the face of the brutality of
their enemies; brutality which is present in all geographies with manifest
cruelty. In this sense, the Western project of global apartheid promoted by the
Zionist-American axis is a reality beyond our noses. The struggle against them
cannot depend exclusively on the will of the states and governments, hence the
importance of Hizbullah. Hizbullah's influence on the regional scene – where
spirituality is inextricably linked to the political project – is not subject to
idealizations of any kind, but to the objective limitations that the arrogant
powers have for their plans."
In another post the leader wrote: "In view of the extent of the danger of the
enemy [the U.S], whose civilizational proposal has generated an unprecedented
crisis..., we said back in December 2012 that our struggle was inextricably
linked to the destiny of all the peoples of the world. Therefore, it is our
strategic duty to build ties of friendship, integration and mutual assistance
with all those organizations [i.e Hizbullah], and governments [i.e Iran] that
resist the imperialist arrogance in every corner of the planet [and whose]
intrinsically-transcendent, cultural, and civilizational proposals counter the
decadence of today's world, and whose spiritual traditions are fundamental for
the harmonious coexistence of all communities because they seek to construct
true solidarity and a self-aware, free and fully-spiritual humanity." The
preceding argument is the basis for OLA's incorporation of the Iranian Islamic
Revolution's ideals into its own agenda and political platform.
Hizbullah And Iranian Leadership As Role Models
OLA's leadership views Hizbullah and the Iranian leadership in the same way as
it views national and regional revolutionary heroes such as José de San Martín,
Juan Perón, Simón Bolivar, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. The leadership portrays
Iranian Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolution founder Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, Hizbullah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC Qods
Force commander Qassem Soleimani as role models who – alongside famous Latin
American revolutionary figures – must be emulated in their "struggle against
oppression." It often praises them and regularly mentions them in statements
critical of the current Argentinian government and of the United States.
For instance, shortly after Soleimani's assassination in an American air strike
on January 3, 2020, OLA's leader quoted Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei
saying: "We must know the enemy. The enemy is the United States, the Zionist
regime and the system of arrogance. The arrogance apparatus is not just the
United States and [its allied] governments, but a group of companies and looters
from all over the world that oppose any center that resists [their] oppression
and looting."
The organization also frequently quotes Iranian regime officials on issues of
global relevance such as the Coronavirus and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On January 30, 2020, the OLA Secretary-General shared a poster of Khamenei
labelled: "Don't say that the destruction of the Zionist regime is impossible;
nothing is impossible in this world." Pictured behind Khamenei were Qassem
Soleimani and Hassan Nasrallah.
IRGC Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani As A Role Model
Soleimani's death only increased OLA admiration for the Qods Force Commander, as
the organization began to refer to him as "the glorious commander" of Islam and
to describe him as "the general of hearts," whose strategic operations were
decisive for the defeat of ISIS, and whose example should be emulated by "all
patriots, revolutionaries and anti-imperialists of the world."
OLA's leader also replaced his profile picture with a photograph of Soleimani,
and the organization announced the mass production of shirts with his image. The
text on the tee shirt depicting Soleimani reads: "With the blessing of his pure
blood."
In the photograph on the right OLA's leader is shown wearing the tee-shirt
featuring Soleimani. Soleimani was even portrayed by members of the organization
as fighting for the same cause as famous Latin American revolutionary figures
such as Simón Bolivar, Hugo Chavez, Che Guevara and Fidel Castro.
Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah As A Role Model
The organization also portrays Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as a
role model, frequently posting videos of Nasrallah with Spanish translation,
while senior OLA members often upload pictures of him to their personal Facebook
accounts along with excerpts from his speeches.
For example, in a post from April 27, 2020, the leader features Nasrallah and
describes him as "an Inspiration for all those who fight for the independence
and sovereignty of their nations against the arrogant powers." He also wrote: "Hizbullah
leader Sayed Hasan Nasrallah has become a 'symbol' of the resistance against
imperialist assaults ... not only for Lebanon, but for all the Arabs and peoples
of the world. The resistance which sprouted in Southern Lebanon against the
Zionist aggression backed by the decaying empire of the United States is a solid
example of a spirituality of sacrifice that refuses to be absorbed by the modern
West and its civilizational model."
OLA portrays Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as a role model,
frequently posting videos of Nasrallah with Spanish translation.
Similarly, on April 8, 2020, OLA posted a video featuring Nasrallah criticizing
the West's management of the COVID-19 pandemic. The accompanying text reads: "Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah with clear details on the path, values and virtues of the
peoples and nations of the world, vis-à-vis the dangers that a rickety and
sickly minority of the world population promotes."
Adopting The Terminology Of Iran's Islamic Revolution: The U.S. Is The "Great
Satan"
In addition to viewing the Iranian regime's leaders as role models, OLA has also
adopted the terminology of the regime and absorbed it into its propaganda. In
Iranian fashion, OLA labels the United States the "Great Satan," and describes
international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank as part
of a "system of hegemonic arrogance" which seeks to oppress all the nations of
the world through their neo-liberal policies. It also echoes the threats of the
Iranian regime and Hizbullah against the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East,
mainly Israel and Saudi Arabia.
OLA regularly refers to the U.S. as a terrorist state, describing it as a
villain. For instance, in a post from January 22, 2020, OLA's leader depicts the
U.S. as about to devour Latin America which is represented by a soup that the
U.S. seasons with "coups," "fake news," "hatred" and "violence." The image is
accompanied by text in which he instructs his followers about the necessity to
learn from nations and leaders such as the Islamic Republic of Iran which,
(quoting Soleimani) are "ready to sacrifice the lives of its people" [for the
anti-imperialist cause]."
Shortly after Iran issued threats to the U.S. in the wake of Soleimani's death,
the leader posted an article about the American decision to evacuate one of its
military bases in the Syrian Hasaka Province. His comment on the article read:
"Satan is leaving with his tail between his legs."
OLA's leader comments: "Satan [the U.S.] is leaving with his tail between his
legs."
In another post, the leader echoes the Iranian threat by quoting the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard: "Any other aggression or move by the oppressive and
hegemonic regime of the Great Satan will receive even a more painful and
smashing response from Iran."
On the day of Soleimani's death, the leader shared a video translated into
Spanish featuring a religious Iranian singer leading a large crowd of Iranians
in the following chant: "We can hear the satanic voices of the Jewish
imperialists coming out of the throats of the Saudis (...) all are tricks of the
Great Shaytan (USA)... Our swords will respond in battles [and] our missiles
target Tel Aviv." The leader's comment on the video read, "The arrogant powers
generate acts of war, soon they will hear the Huseynis [the Shi'ites]. Qassem
Soleimani, example of the struggle against the powerful and corrupt of the
world, was martyred. "
On the day of Soleimani's death, the leader shared a video of a large crowd of
Iranians chanting anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans.
Glorifying Jihad And Martyrdom
OLA promotes the ideology of jihad and martyrdom which is vehemently advocated
by the Iranian regime. For example, its leader endorses and propagates the
Islamic Revolution's narrative about the heroic death of the Imam Hussein – the
Shi'ite prototype of the perfect martyr. He even specifies that the Battle of
Karbala – the event which in Shi'ite Islam signals the beginning of the
veneration of martyrs – was the inspiration for his own political movement.
Furthermore, the organization and its leaders frequently post videos which
glorify jihad and martyrdom. Shortly after Qassem Soleimani's death, OLA shared
a video on its Facebook page compiling some of the Qods Force commander's
statements about death: "What is better for a person than choosing a great,
voluntary death, a death of his own free will? If that Friend (Allah) allows my
blood to be shed, I am gladly willing to give up my life for Him... Brave men
are the ones who dance on their own blood, because they are free of themselves
(the Nafs), they clap their hands..."
OLA shared a video on its Facebook page with a compilation of quotes glorifying
death from the Qods Force commander.
Commenting on the video, the organization writes: "The friends of God guide us
with their words, they beautify us with their steadfastness, and they calm us
with their patience [...] they strengthen our spirit with their actions, make us
lose all fear of our enemies."
Similarly, on January 24, 2020, OLA's National Director posted a video on his
Facebook page entitled "We are Jihad." The video is a eulogy for Jihad Imad
Mughniyeh, the son of Hizbullah's Chief of Staff Imad Mughniya – who is believed
to have been the mastermind of many terrorist attacks, including those in
Argentina. The last scene of the video features a picture of the White House
with the lyrics, "Red-stained earth will remain as long as the white castle
exists."
Commemorating Al-Qods Day
On May 22, 2020, the last Friday of Ramadan, OLA held a conference on the
occasion of "Al-Qods Day," the date chosen by Islamic Revolution founder
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to commemorate the Palestinian resistance. During
the event the organization expressed solidarity with Iran's and Hizbullah's
goals in the region and screened a video in which Hizbullah flags are
prominently displayed, American and Israeli flags are burned, and the Iranian
leadership is shown entering the Temple Mount as Jerusalem goes up in flames in
the background. In the days preceding the event the organization posted pictures
of Khamenei praying at the Temple Mount, and prepared a large flag depicting
Qassem Soleimani to be used as a backdrop for the OLA broadcast of the event.
On the occasion of "Al-Qods Day to commemorate the Palestinian resistance, OLA
expressed solidarity with Iran's and Hizbullah's goals in the region.
Conspiracy Theories
OLA also promotes the Iranian narratives about the 1994 AMIA attack in Buenos
Aires. It accuses the CIA and Israeli intelligence of arranging the AMIA attacks
as a "cover-up" for their sinister plans to take control of Argentina's security
establishment, while blaming Hizbullah for the attacks. OLA also frequently
posts photographs which purportedly show Netanyahu manipulating Argentinian
politicians.
OLA frequently posts photographs implying that Netanyahu manipulates Argentinian
politicians.
OLA blames the U.S. and Israel for the creation of ISIS, and more recently has
accused the U.S. of covertly bringing the Coronavirus to China in order to blame
the Asian country for its propagation across the globe.
As described above, a central means by which the principles and ideology of the
Iranian Islamic Revolution are introduced to the local population in Argentina
is through the dissemination of videos from official Hizbullah sources and other
media outlets based in Iran. One news outlet, based in Qom, the Iranian city
which is considered holy by Shia Muslims, describes itself as "an independent
digital media project not affiliated with any organization, government or
country" whose mission is to "strengthen and serve the Islamic Leadership
(Wilayah)" and to export Iran's Islamic Revolution. The videos which are
produced and distributed by the outlet are translated into Spanish and posted on
Facebook by a mutual friend of OLA's leaders.
Though the man translating the videos into Spanish currently lives in Southern
Lebanon, he regularly posts highly-radicalized content on Facebook in Spanish
under a pseudonym. This account is exclusively dedicated to publicizing the
views of Nasrallah and Hizbullah and explaining their relevance to Argentinian
politics. He also uses it to communicate with members of the Shi'ite community
in Argentina, which includes leaders of OLA, who regularly share his posts. The
translator's personal accounts in Arabic also reveal that he has family
connections in Paraguay and Brazil, where he has lived in the past. He also
follows many Hizbullah accounts on Facebook, some of which appear to have links
to Brazil, and his children were "Scouts of the Imam Mahdi," a youth movement
established by Hizbullah in Lebanon. The translator's Arabic and
Spanish-language accounts have been shut down in the past for violating
Facebook's community standards, but new accounts were opened in their place
which blur Nasrallah's face and use the acronym "SHN" instead of Nasrallah's
full name, to avoid being closed down again.
After its accounts were shut down for violating Facebook's community standards,
the translator's new accounts make sure to blur Nasrallah's face and not to
refer to him by name.
Relationships With Sheikhs Connected To Iran Who Support Hizbullah
The social media accounts of the senior OLA members indicate that they are
connected to, and derive inspiration from, sheiks with direct connections to
Iran, who support Hizbullah. For instance, OLA maintains a close relationship
with the sheikh who is Mohsen Rabbani's successor at the At-Tawhid mosque.
Argentinian prosecutor Alberto Nisman singled out the former director of the At-Tawhid
Mosque as the mastermind behind the 1994 AMIA bombings in Argentina, and
described the mosque as the place where Iranian officials plotted the attack, in
conjunction with Hizbullah. Today Rabbani's indoctrinated[6] and appointed
successor maintains a close relationship with OLA. He was one of the main
speakers at the conference hosted by OLA on "Qods Day," participating in the
event via video-call from Iran.
Social media accounts of senior OLA members indicate that they derive
inspiration from sheiks with direct connections to Iran, who support Hizbullah.
The sheikh and OLA's leader are also friends on Facebook, and regularly interact
through Facebook posts. Both the leader and the translator liked a post in which
the sheikh comments on the sudden upsurge of COVID-19 infections in the United
States, and refers to it as "compelling punishment." On another post where OLA's
leader calls Israel "the Synagogue of Satan" for retaliating against rockets
from Gaza, the sheikh comments sarcastically: "This is the 'thou shalt not kill'
of the Zionist 'Jews'." The sheikh also shares the translator's posts and makes
sporadic references to Hizbullah.
Another sheikh with whom the leader regularly interacts is also a disciple of
Mohsen Rabbani's. He currently serves as the director of the House for the
Dissemination of Islam (Casa para la Difusión del Islam) in Buenos Aires, which
is situated on a property that is owned by Rabbani. He is widely known as an
outspoken supporter of Hizbullah. The relationship between this sheikh and OLA's
leader is also seen clearly in a post shared by the leader on May 17, 2020,
which promotes the sheikh's radio program.
OLA's leader is also connected to additional sheikhs, as may be observed in a
post from January 9, 2020. In this post, a Colombian sheikh tags several
Argentinian sheikhs, as well as a sheikh who lives in Qom, Iran. OLA's leader,
who is friends on Facebook with all of these sheikhs, shares the post.
[1] Spanish.khamenei.ir/; Twitter.com/es_Khamenei.
[2] Argentine Israelite Mutual Aid Association (Asociación Mutual Israelita
Argentina).
[3] The New York Times, July 18, 2019. The Argentinian government's decision to
designate Hizbullah as a terrorist organization is still maintained by the newly
elected president Alberto Fernandez despite initial fears that he would derogate
the decree. Perfil.com, January 24, 2020, Infobae.com, November 20, 2019.
[4] Since 2015, Argentina's external debt has increased by 60%; its inflation
rate has increased from 20% to 50% since 2012; and its unemployment rate
increased by 3% between 2015 and 2019. Fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10991.pdf, January
28, 2020. Bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-new-economy-drivers-and-disrupters/argentina.html,
November 19, 2019. Clarín (Argentina), June 19, 2019.
[5] Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez, as well as many former presidents,
belonged to this party, which in 2019 was part of a larger coalition known as "Frente
de Todos."
[6] Books.google.com/books?id=oqDYBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA88&lpg=PA88&dq=santiago+paz+bullrich+iran&source=
bl&ots =k7Z qs7-hpq&sig=
k3Lmr-dp8oNd _3_A_eqXk hXsDRk&hl=en&s a=X&ei=AN3YVKD SNs_5yQSP6o Ew&ved=0CEM
Q6AEwBA#v=onepage&q
=santiago%20paz%20bullrich%20iran&f=false.
CORRUPTION, CRISIS, CORONAVIRUS: THE LEBANESE “TRIPLE C”
Euromed Rights/July 02/2020
Will the Lebanese political system succumb to coronavirus? While the multiple
social movements started in autumn 2019 were paused to tackle the pandemic, the
embers of protest are slowly reigniting.
The pandemic exacerbates the economic inequalities that are already unbearable
for the vast majority of the population. No economic reforms were carried out
since the end of the civil war, debt should reach 160% of GDP at the end of 2020
(it reached 155% at the end of 2019), the financial mechanisms put in place did
not prevent a default payment last March and the devaluation of the Lebanese
pound continues, triggering a rapid inflation. The governor of the Central Bank
and the government blame each other in a country ranked 137th (out of 180) in
Transparency International’s corruption ranking.
The Lebanese people are at the heart of the storm, in a boat without a rudder:
poverty should soon hit 60% of the population; banks freeze assets, emphasising
the feeling of dispossession felt by many small investors; the most marginalised
groups, such as migrant domestic workers, face an alarming situation. Many of
these workers saw their financial means suddenly vanish and while they arrived
under the Kafala system, linking their residence permit to a contract with their
employer, they are now without a job, resources or papers (as those are often
seized by their employer). An estimated one million and a half Syrian refugees
also live in Lebanon. Any worsening of the economic and/or sanitary situation
would have dramatic consequences. Faced with the urge to eat, wearing a mask
soon becomes secondary, therefore fuelling the risk of a second wave. As
dictated by necessity, the Lebanese people return to the streets and to social
media to denounce – often in a creative manner – financial mismanagement and
corruption. To answer these movements, the government has so far decided to use
force. Since the beginning of the protests, the police have made violent and
arbitrary arrests denounced by human rights organisations. The authorities use
the security apparatus, juggling between the different bodies of a complex
confessional system, to silence human rights demands. Can the responses from the
authorities in the next few weeks appease the situation? The first measures do
not seem to take this route.
Diab: Internal and external parties dragging Lebanon into
regional conflicts
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab told the Cabinet on Thursday that there "are internal
parties that do not care about the future of the country, and are only seeking
personal interests, which are covered in political and sectarian calculations."
Following is Diab's full address during the Cabinet session:
"When we formed this Cabinet, we named it "Facing Challenges" Government,
because we knew that we would face major accumulations and huge crises. We were
not afraid to fight this battle to save the country. We also knew that the
sacrifices would be great, and that we would lose a lot. Of course, each of us
has his own loss scale. Nevertheless, we were not reluctant and we were
convinced that we were carrying out a national rescue mission for the country,
the people, and the future of our children.
From the outset, we have said that we will move away from politics. We have no
political ambition. We have no electoral desires. We have practiced
self-effacement and drowned ourselves in work. A series of workshops. A series
of crises. A long series of problems accumulating over decades has exploded all
at once, with emerging crises.
Still, we decided to move forward. We will take on these challenges and try to
reduce the speed of the collapse and the scale of the shock and damage that will
hit the country.
Today we have reached the point of collision. However, unfortunately, over the
past weeks, and until now, there are local and external parties that have worked
and are working to cause a resounding collision, with a resulting great crash
and huge losses.
Unfortunately, there are internal parties that do not care about the future of
the country, and are only seeking personal interests, which are covered in
political and sectarian calculations. These parties are either external tools
used to drag Lebanon into the region's conflicts and turn it into a negotiating
card, or are enticing external parties and encouraging them to take hold of the
country and negotiate over it at the table of international and regional
interests.
All of this raises a set of questions:
Are we unable to deal with the challenges?
Did we lose the confrontation?
Has the government's role ended?
For me, the picture is clear, and so are the answers.
A basic question is addressed to each one of you: Did anyone think that his
entry to the government was a "prestige", and that he did not expect to face
difficult challenges?
Of course, I am confident that each of you knew where he was heading to, and
knew the challenges awaiting us.
We chose to meet the challenges. We will continue to face them. We know very
well that there is a big decision to besiege the country. They are preventing
any assistance to Lebanon. A political and financial blockade is imposed to
starve the Lebanese, and at the same time, they claim that they want to help the
Lebanese people.
They ask for reforms, and in return they protect corruption, provide immunity to
corrupt people, and prevent us from seizing financial files to recover the
stolen monies.
They are playing the game of raising the price of the US dollar, speculating on
the Lebanese pound, and trying to disrupt the government's measures to tackle
the dollar price's surge.
The dollar game has become exposed and visible.
They demand financial measures, smuggle money abroad, prevent incoming
transfers, and block the opening of credits for fuel, diesel, medicine and
flour, to cut off electricity to the Lebanese, starve them, and let them die
without medicines. Moreover, they claim that they are keen on preserving Lebanon
and on providing assistance to the Lebanese people.
We have been silent a lot about diplomatic practices entailing major violations
of international norms and diplomacy, for the sake of preserving brotherly
relations, belonging, identity and friendships; but this behavior exceeded all
familiar brotherly or diplomatic relations.
More seriously, some practices are blatantly interfering in Lebanon's affairs;
there have been secret and public meetings; letters written with secret ink;
encrypted messages; "WhatsApp" messages; plans and operations order to block
roads and cause trouble.
How does the government deal with these plans and projects?
Do we give up? Do we announce our failure? Do we run away to be relieved from
this burden and say that the believers are spared from fighting? Do we leave the
coast clear? Do we choose confrontation?
Here is the biggest challenge facing us today as a government.
The answer will not be delivered today, but there will certainly be a clear,
frank and transparent response, in addition to a definition of responsibilities.
We will not overreact. This battle is ours. This country is ours. These people
are ours.
We are keen on maintaining brotherly and friendship relations.
But of course, we have many options, and many papers on which to write our
letters, but not encoded ones. Our letters are written in clear ink, in a simple
and frank language. We will not accept that the country and the Lebanese people
be an internal mailbox serving external interests, negotiations and settlement
of accounts.
We will not accept besieging and starving the Lebanese.
As for road cuts, those who are really hungry are not the ones who are
necessarily blocking roads. Road blocking is against people, not against the
government.
Blocking roads increases pressure on people, and increases their hardship.
Burning tires will not burn the government, it will burn the remaining oxygen in
the country. Road blocking comes against a clearly political backdrop, by a
decision issued by an exposed operations room in terms of identity and control.
The situation is very difficult. True.
The social, living and economic crisis is huge. True.
Therefore, the government is working to break the link between the dollar price
and the cost of living. We are in the final stage of accomplishing this task.
The government is not stalling, and road blocking will not prevent it from
securing the basic life necessities for the Lebanese.
We will continue to disburse financial aid to families every month. We are
gradually increasing the number of beneficiary families.
There is an ongoing plan to support industry, agriculture, as well as public and
private schools. Thus, we will have reduced the bill of the food basket,
consumer goods, as well as other burdens on citizens.
We will face the attempt to starve the Lebanese with graduated measures and
procedures in all fields." ----Grand Serail Press Office
Diab meets Chinese Ambassador
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, received today the Chinese Ambassador to
Lebanon, Wang Kejian, heading a Chinese delegation, in the presence of Ministers
of Environment Demianos Kattar, Industry Imad Hoballah, Public Works and
Transport Michel Najjar, Energy and Water Raymond Ghajar, and Tourism Ramzi
Moucharrafieh. The meeting discussed strengthening cooperation at all levels.
The Chinese delegation also expressed its willingness to activate the
partnership with Lebanon. Prime Minister Diab has entrusted the Minister of
Industry to follow up on possible means of cooperation. ---Grand Serail's Press
Office
Qabalan calls Justice Minister, Judicial Council to reject
Judge Mazeh's resignation
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
President of the Supreme Islamic Shia Council, Sheikh Abdel Amir Qabalan, on
Thursday called the Minister of Justice and the Higher Judicial Council to
reject the resignation of Judge Mohammad Mazeh, which he submitted after he was
referred to the judicial inspection authority over his decision to ban media
from interviewing US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. Qabalan praised Judge
Mazeh for his "courage" and "keenness on curbing strife."
Hariri: The key word is reform and my conditions to return
to the premiership are well know
NNA/Thursday 02 July 2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri expressed his surprise that Prime Minister
Hassan Diab describes the current crisis as a conspiracy, does not mention the
issue of reforms, electricity, communications or even fuel, and attacks the
diplomatic community while he seeks to borrow from its states. Hariri added that
the key word to salvation is reform, reform and reform. He denied that anyone
approached him with the issue of forming a new government, stressing that his
conditions are known and have not changed, and they are not the conditions of
Saad Hariri but rather what the country needs to get out of the current crisis.
In a chat with reporters this afternoon at the Center House, he warned against
the mandate or the government sacking the Governor of the Central Bank Riad
Salame, adding that the Future Movement will have a very harsh position in this
case.
Question: There is talk today about a government change. Could you return to the
premiership?
Hariri: There is a team responsible for this government, and if this team
decides to abandon it, then it is its business. I said that I have conditions to
return, and they know them. These conditions have not and will not change. They
are not the conditions of Saad Hariri, but what the country needs to be saved.
There has to be a very different way of working. If we do not go out of all
these things, nothing will change.
Question: Who do you think is besieging this government and Lebanon, after PM
Hassan Diab’s talk about besieging Lebanon?
Hariri: How can the outside besiege us through the dollar? There is an economic
crisis and what is needed is reform. I heard what PM Diab said today, so did he
talk about electricity? Reforms? He only attacks the diplomatic corps while we
seek to borrow from its states. Once we gather this diplomatic corps and talk to
them about Lebanon's situation and its suffering, and another time, we turn
around and attack them. I did not see any judge react when the Syrian Ambassador
attacked Speaker Nabih Berri a few months ago.
Question: Where do you think the main problem is today?
Hariri: Either we look at this crisis in a negative way, or we try to find a
certain positive way out of this crisis. There is no doubt that this crisis
created an economic meltdown in Lebanon, but somewhere, the International
Monetary Fund says it is ready to help. Reforms are needed and changing the way
of work by quotas. There is a so-called Low hanging fruit, and so far we haven't
made any of it. I am really shocked when I hear a prime minister not mention
electricity, communications, transportation, or the fuel oil problem that we
suffer from, and only see a conspiracy. We have to do our homework. If the
Lebanese want the others to help him, he must help himself first. The government
should help itself.
Question: But the current government bears responsibility for the previous
governments. Do you consider yourself today responsible?
Hariri: I kept silent for the first hundred days of the life of this government
and did not deny that I bear responsibility, and the proof that I bear
responsibility is that I resigned. Didn't the people ask me to resign and I did?
I did what people wanted, and certainly I bear responsibility, but others bear a
much greater responsibility. What did they accomplish with these ministries? We
agonize to make the easiest reforms and do not make them. So why not do these
reforms? Is it because someone wants this person and this party wants this or
that? Are we going to keep going this way? Is this the cry of the people on
October 17? What did the people say then? They said that there are neither
Muslims nor Christians, "leave" and the country should not managed this way.
Question: Minister Bassil’s sources are trying to market former vice-Governor of
the Central Bank, Mohamed Baasiri, as a substitute for PM Hassan Diab. Would you
agree with this proposal?
Hariri: I do not cover anyone close to me. My conditions are clear, whether it
is I or someone else.
Question: Is this condition that Gibran Bassil is not represented in this
government?
Hariri: They know my conditions.
Question: It is said that the United States are asking Lebanon for a government
in which Hezbollah is not represented. Are you ready to head such a government?
Hariri: Where was that said? There is no evidence about this. But certainly
there is a political problem in the country in this regard, and we cannot
understand how a government demands the Gulf to provide money to Lebanon while
in this government there are those who clap when a Houthi missile hits Riyadh or
any region in Saudi Arabia. The disassociation policy was put in the statement
of the previous government and was not respected.
Question: What is the Saudi embassy in Lebanon seeking through the receptions
that the Saudi ambassador is hosting?
Hariri: You should ask the ambassador.
Question: Where do you think we are heading on the issue of heading east?
Hariri: First, I do not think that any government in the past had a problem with
the East, or even with the West, perhaps only some of them, but most governments
had good relations with the East and with the West. Rafic Hariri visited China
and Japan, and I went to China, Russia, Europe and America. But the problem with
this issue is that they believe this is the solution, as if China will come and
put its money in Lebanon. Any country that would invests in Lebanon will demand
reforms. If it were to participate in a tender for electricity, for example, it
would request that this tender be clear, transparent and organized on
international basis. Let no one say that we refuse to engage with the East. Not
at all. The Music Institute, which is located in Dbayeh, who made donations for
its establishment? Isn’t it China during my government? We also worked with
Huawei, which developed the 5G towers. No one has a problem with the East. They
demand the government to go east as if someone is preventing them from doing so.
But as far as Lebanon's national interest is concerned, we must always have a
balance. When you consider the interest of the Lebanese, you must take into
consideration that he is able to go east as much as he is able to go west.
Question: Has the Lebanon which was built according to the vision of martyr
Prime Minister Rafic Hariri come to an end?
Hariri: No, I think we have an opportunity today. Before the assassination of
Rafic Hariri, the country was being built despite all the obstacles put in the
way of Rafic Hariri, but after the martyrdom in 2005, an unacceptable and
unnatural way of work and quotas started.
Question: But you were accepting these things?
Hariri: I was prime minister three times, but during these 15 years, there were
7 years lost in a vacuum, only negotiations for this or that seat, and this
vacuum was devastating for us.
The opportunity is that we have to think that the way of working that prevailed
over the past 15 years is no longer permissible. Therefore, we must press the
reset button, and this collapse that afflicts us in Lebanon is part of this
button. When we make an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, all the
reforms that we have to implement must be complete, and all quotas have to stop
then. And if we want to fight corruption, the most important way to do this is
through an e-government, when the citizen does not have to go from one formality
to another. The same applies to the social security number. Where has this
number become, given that we have begun work to accomplish it in the previous
government? Hence, we must return to the fundamentals, and this country must
rise again based on them and not on the distortion that existed.
Question: But the people want immediate solutions in light of the deterioration
taking place, so why don't you interfere and conduct an external tour in an
effort to bring support to Lebanon?
Hariri: Where is the reform that we have done? If we could not appoint a board
of directors for Electricite du Liban. And now, in the telecommunications
sector, we have two companies that were managing the sector, we took it from
them and brought it back to the public sector, as if the public sector is very
efficient.
Question: But this is for one month only, until the conditions book is
completed?
Hariri: Do you believe that? The book of conditions is ready.
Question: Didn't you say that political disturbance stalled the electricity plan
that was approved in 2010? Is this still your opinion?
Hariri: The problem is in the way they deal with people. In the government,
there is a movement that wants to quarrel with everyone at the cabinet table,
whether Amal, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt or the Lebanese forces, so how will
the government work?
We had a golden opportunity when we went to CEDRE, and we were supposed to
finish the parliamentary elections, form a government within three days and
start working and making reforms. If that had happened, we wouldn't be here
today. Why did it take six months to form a government? Because someone wants
it. I do not want to go back, but today, if we want to restore confidence and
gradually reduce the dollar, reforms must be undertaken and the world must see
that there is a method that is really changing in the country.
Question: Has anyone started negotiating with you to return to the government?
Hariri: No, no, I do not want anyone to negotiate with me. From now I say that I
do not wish to be prime minister, I do not like it and am not thinking about it.
Question: Why did you meet with Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli today? Didn't you
talk about a new government?
Hariri: No, we did not talk about this issue at all.
Question: Do you accept to return to the government if there is an international
decision to stand with Lebanon?
Hariri: What matters to me is the way to deal with things in the future and how
we will work to overcome all the problems that brought us to this situation.
Question: How will you help solve this crisis, with your relationships and
internal and external weight? Can you be the solution and savior of the country?
Hariri: I do not consider myself as a savior. We are all saviors. A hand alone
cannot clap in this country. But I ask: Who made all the concessions in the past
three years? And on whose account? Didn’t I do that at the expense of my public?
And why? In order to allow the country to work. I compromised on the issue of
the presidency and on the issue of the electoral law. Could we work? No, we had
to stay at odds. Therefore, what I am saying today is that those who should make
sacrifices are the ones in the government today, and you know who they are. They
have to be humble for the Lebanese citizen in order to allow the country to
breathe.
Question: Are you calling for the resignation of the current government?
Hariri: I made all the concessions that I could make. Why? Is it to be prime
minister? When the problem occurred and when people asked me to resign, I
immediately resigned. Unlike others who are holding on to the chair to the end.
Question: Are you with the current forensic scrutiny of the central bank?
Hariri: Let them do what they want, what do they fear? We Lebanese have nothing
to hide.
Question: But it exposes the country to the outside?
Hariri: As if the country is not exposed.
Question: Where are we headed in this economic situation?
Hariri: We are going downhill. Reform is the keyword that can save Lebanon.
Reform reform reform.
Question: What is the priority, a political or an economic reform?
Hariri: Political reform must take place by stopping the quotas.
Question: There are those who are calling for something like a "shut down" for
all of Lebanon, and there are those who say that companies that want to build
power plants require Lebanon to sign with the World Bank to start its work in
order to be under its guarantee. Is the government facing conditions from all
over the world?
Hariri: What we must do is to rebuild our economy. We are not bankrupt, but if
we do not make all the necessary reforms quickly we will reach bankruptcy. For
example, economically, the dollar exchange rate should not be 10 thousand LBP,
but between 4 and 5 thousand LBP. Why does it reach 10 thousand? Because of the
black market.
Question: Does the governor of the Central Bank Riad Salame bear the
responsibility?
Hariri: The state borrowed 90 billion dollars, and therefore we have to find a
scapegoat, who is Riad Salame.
But I will tell you one thing: any government that will do anything or think
about the issue of Riad Salame will face a strict stance from the Future
Movement. Not for the sake of Riad Salame, but in order to maintain stability.
If the mandate or the PM think that everything will be solved if Riad Salame is
sacked, then I say from now: any governor who is present in such a crisis, Riyad
Salame or anyone else, must remain until we reach safety.
Question: Is the relationship completely over with the President of the
Republic?
Hariri: The dispute is not with the President of the Republic, but with another
person.
Question: Why didn’t you go to the dialogue table?
Hariri: Because the title was fundamentally wrong. President Michel Suleiman
participated and said what he said and expressed reservations about the
statement. They made a statement and wanted to release it.
Question: What are your conditions to return?
Hariri: They know them.
Question: But Gebran Bassil insists, you either come bacl back together or leave
together?
Hariri: Be it. I am not in a hurry to be a prime minister. The difference
between others and me is that I am not running after a chair.
Question: Do you see any seriousness from the government in dealing with the
issue of the International Monetary Fund?
Hariri: No. The government put out a plan and came up with numbers. People from
the same team came and suggested that the numbers be reexamined, as they might
not be correct. It turned out that the numbers are lower, but the government is
still insisting on its numbers. There are those who wanted to help the
government and show it that its numbers are incorrect.
Question: But you praised the effort of MP Ibrahim Kanaan?
Hariri: The Finance Committee headed by MP Kanaan did the right thing. Had it
not been for Speaker Berri and his obstinacy to study this issue in parliament,
we would not have reached correct numbers. What Speaker Berri did was the right
thing to do.
Question: Did anyone discuss with you your return to the presidency of the
government?
Hariri: No one spoke to me.-- Hariri Press Office
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on July 02-03/2020
Explosion at Iran nuclear site hit new centrifuge plant: US-based analysts
The Associated Press/Thursday 02 July 2020
A fire and an explosion struck a building above Iran’s underground Natanz
nuclear enrichment facility early on Thursday, a site that US-based analysts
identified as a new centrifuge production plant.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran sought to downplay the fire, calling it
an “incident” that only affected an under-construction “industrial shed,”
spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said. However, both Kamalvandi and Iranian nuclear
chief Ali Akbar Salehi rushed after the fire to Natanz, which has been targeted
in sabotage campaigns in the past. Kamalvandi did not identify what damaged the
building, though Natanz governor Ramazanali Ferdowsi said a “fire” had struck
the site, according to a report by the semiofficial Tasnim news agency.
Authorities offered no cause for the blaze, though Iran’s state-run IRNA news
agency published a commentary addressing the possibility of sabotage by enemy
nations such as Israel and the US following other recent explosions in the
country. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has so far has tried to prevent
intensifying crises and the formation of unpredictable conditions and
situations,” the commentary said. But "the crossing of red lines of the Islamic
Republic of Iran by hostile countries, especially the Zionist regime and the US,
means that strategy ... should be revised.”A photograph later released by the
atomic energy agency and state TV video showed a brick building with scorch
marks and its roof apparently destroyed. Debris on the ground and a door that
looked blown off its hinges suggested an explosion accompanied the blaze. Data
collected by a US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite
suggested the fire broke out around 2 AM local time in the northwest corner of
the Natanz compound. Flames from the blaze were bright enough to be detected by
the satellite from space.
“There are physical and financial damages and we are investigating to assess,”
Kamalvandi told Iranian state television. “Furthermore, there has been no
interruption in the work of the enrichment site. Thank God, the site is
continuing its work as before.”The site of the fire corresponds to a newly
opened centrifuge production facility, said Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of
International Studies in Monterey, California. He said he relied on satellite
images and a state TV program on the facility to locate the building, which sits
in Natanz’s northwest corner.
David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security similarly
said the fire struck the production facility. His institute previously wrote a
report on the new plant, identifying it from satellite pictures while it was
under construction and later built. Iranian nuclear officials did not respond to
a request for comment about the analysts’ comments. However, any damage to the
facility would be a major setback, said Hinz, who called the fire “very, very
suspicious.”“It would delay the advancement of the centrifuge technology quite a
bit at Natanz,” Hinz said. “Once you have done your research and development,
you can’t undo that research and development. Targeting them would be very
useful” for Iran’s adversaries. There was no previously announced construction
work at Natanz, a uranium enrichment center some 250 kilometers (155 miles)
south of Tehran. Natanz includes underground facilities buried under some 7.6
meters (25 feet) of concrete, offering protection from airstrikes. Natanz, also
known as the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, is among the sites now monitored by
the International Atomic Energy Agency after Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world
powers.
The IAEA said in a statement it was aware of reports of the fire. “We currently
anticipate no impact on the IAEA’s safeguards verification activities,” the
Vienna-based agency said. Located in Iran’s central Isfahan province, Natanz
hosts the country’s main uranium enrichment facility. There, centrifuges rapidly
spin uranium hexafluoride gas to enrich uranium. Currently, the IAEA says Iran
enriches uranium to about 4.5 percent purity, above the terms of the nuclear
deal, but far below weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. It also has conducted
tests on advanced centrifuges, according to the IAEA.
Natanz also remains of particular concern to Tehran as it has been targeted for
sabotage before. The Stuxnet computer virus, widely believed to be an American
and Israeli creation, disrupted and destroyed centrifuges at Natanz amid the
height of Western concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
Iran Reports Accident at 'Inactive' Nuclear Site, No
Casualties
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 02/2020
Iran's nuclear body said an accident had taken place on Thursday at a
construction site in a nuclear complex without causing casualties, state news
agency IRNA reported. "An accident occurred on Thursday morning and damaged a
warehouse under construction in open space at the Natanz site" in central Iran,
said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the country's Atomic Energy Organisation.
Kamalvandi was further quoted as saying that the complex is currently inactive
and there is no risk of radioactive pollution. The accident did not result in
casualties, he added, noting that the cause was under investigation. He did not
give any details on the nature of the reported accident. Tehran announced in May
last year that it was suspending certain commitments under a multilateral
nuclear deal unilaterally abandoned by the United States in 2018. The 2015
accord promised Iran sanctions relief in exchange for limiting its nuclear
programme. US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the deal was followed by
Washington reimposing biting unilateral sanctions. The Natanz facility is one of
Iran's main uranium enrichment plants.
France refutes Turkey's 'inaccurate and bias' claims on
Libya.
Reuters/Thursday 02 July 2020
France’s foreign ministry said on Thursday it had spoken to Turkey’s envoy to
refute “inaccurate and bias” claims he made during a hearing with French
senators on Wednesday. In the hearing ambassador Ismail Hakki Musa accused
France of favoring eastern Libyan General Khalifa Haftar and said
French warships had been aggressive during an incident with Turkish warships on
the Mediterranean last month. “We wanted to make the necessary clarifications
with him regarding the reality of the facts, omissions and inaccurate and biased
information that he brought up during this hearing” Foreign ministry spokeswoman
Agnes von der Muhll said in a statement. She added that the envoy had been
reminded of “the unacceptable character of Turkish behavior.”
Palestinian Rivals Fatah, Hamas Pledge Unity against
Israeli Annexations
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 02/2020
Palestinians rivals Fatah and Hamas pledged a united campaign against Israel's
prospective plans to annex territory in the occupied West Bank, in a rare joint
press conference on Thursday. "We will put in place all necessary measures to
ensure national unity" in efforts against annexation, senior Fatah official
Jibril Rajub said in Ramallah at the press conference, also addressed by Hamas
official Saleh al-Arouri by video-link from Beirut. "Today, we want to speak in
a single voice," Rajub affirmed.
Incident at Iranian Nuclear Facility Damages Construction
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 July, 2020
An incident damaged an under-construction building Thursday near Iran's
underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, a spokesman said. The affected
building was above ground and not part of the enrichment facility itself, said
Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The
state-run IRNA news agency quoted Kamalvandi as saying there was “no need for
concern” over the incident. "There is no concern about the possibility of
contamination as one of the sheds which was inactive and under construction was
damaged and not the facility itself," Kamalvandi told state news agency IRNA.
Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the removal of most
international sanctions in a deal reached between Tehran and six world powers in
2015. But Tehran has gradually reduced its commitments to the accord since US
President Donald Trump's administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and
reimposed and intensified sanctions against it.
France latest side to condemn talks of coverting Hagia
Sophia back into a mosque
Reuters/Thursday 02 July 2020
France's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that the sixth-century Hagia Sophia
museum originally built as a Christian cathedral in Istanbul must remain open to
all. A Turkish court on Thursday heard a petition seeking to convert the Hagia
Sophia, one of Turkey's most visited and beloved tourist sites, back into a
mosque. "A symbol of tolerance and diversity, this place must remain open to
all," a French Foreign Ministry spokesman said. France's appeal comes after the
spiritual head of the world’s Orthodox Christians warned that converting
Istanbul’s sixth century Hagia Sophia back into a mosque would sow division. US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also urged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
not to convert the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. The Hagia Sophia is a UNESCO
World Heritage Site that was at the core of both the Christian Byzantine and
Muslim Ottoman empires, and is today one of Turkey's most visited monuments
Fatah, Hamas Pledge Unity against Israeli Annexations
Asharq Al-Awsat/July 02/2020
Fatah and Hamas movements pledged a united campaign against Israel's prospective
plans to annex territory in the occupied West Bank, in a rare joint press
conference on Thursday. "We will put in place all necessary measures to ensure
national unity" in efforts against annexation, senior Fatah official Jibril
Rajub said in Ramallah at the news conference, also addressed by Hamas official
Saleh al-Arouri by video-link from Beirut. "Today, we want to speak in a single
voice," Rajub said. Fatah, which controls the Ramallah-based Palestinian
Authority, and Hamas that runs the Gaza Strip have been plagued by divisions for
more than a decade. The joint press conference was spurred by their common
opposition to US President Donald Trump's Middle East plan dubbed the Deal of
the Century. The plan paves the way for Israel to annex roughly 30 percent of
the occupied West Bank, including Jewish settlements in the territory considered
illegal under international law. For former PA official and Palestinian analyst
Ghassan Khatib, Thursday's show of unity was unlikely to spark wider
co-operation between the two Palestinian groups."I doubt the annexation
challenge will help these two factions to end their split and unify again. I
don't think this is going to happen," Khatib told AFP. "They'll appear together
and they'll agree about the significance and the importance of the annexation
and the need to try to coordinate their efforts but I don't think they'll go
beyond that," he added.
Saudi Arabia Asks Int’l Community Not to Ignore Iran’s Threat
New York - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 July, 2020
Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United Nations Abdallah Al-Mouallimi has told
the Security Council that it expects it to extend an arms embargo on Iran over
its regime’s role in destabilizing the region. In a videoconference in New York,
he called for “not giving Iran the chance to have a more destructive behavior.”
The diplomat said Wednesday there are ongoing contacts with Russia and China,
which have rejected a resolution drafted by the United States to extend the arms
embargo that is set to expire on October 18. He hoped that both Moscow and
Beijing would change their positions for the sake of regional and international
stability. The Saudi Foreign Ministry welcomed on Tuesday a report submitted by
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to the Security Council in which he
confirmed Iran’s direct complicity and responsibility in sabotage attacks that
targeted Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities last year. Al-Mouallimi
warned that if the arms embargo expired, then Iran would improve its weapons
exports to its proxies in the region. “Iran does not only constitute a threat to
regional stability, but international stability as well,” he said. Saudi Arabia
is working with its international partners to end Iran’s threat to the
international community, he added.
Erdogan’s Spies Track Regime Opponents on German Soil
Berlin- Raghida Bahnam/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 July, 2020
Hussein Demir, a former law professor at the University of Ankara, sat inside a
Turkish cafe in the Spandau district of Berlin, with his friend Omar, a Turkish
businessman, drinking coffee and whispering.
As I joined them, the conversation moved from Turkish to English. The two men
seemed more comfortable talking in a language that the cafe owners could not
understand. They told me that they avoid speaking aloud in Turkish when they are
in places frequented by Turks. Even when they speak English, they are always
wary of what they say. Hussein and Omar, who declined to have their real names
published, are political exiles who arrived in Germany in 2017, less than a year
after the failed coup attempt in Turkey. Hussein was dismissed from his job
following the coup and decided to leave the country, fleeing the wave of arrests
that targeted judges, professors, and public sector employees. The academic does
not hide that he belongs to the Fatah Allah Gulen movement, the Turkish cleric
who lives in exile in the United States and who is accused by Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan of masterminding the 2016 coup attempt. But he says, his
affiliation with Gulen has nothing to do with politics, stressing that the
movement is religious and social. The coup attempt occurred on the night of
August 15, 2016. Two weeks later, Hussein was on his way to Georgia, after he
used his brother’s ID card to flee the country.
“My brother told me you must leave because they may torture you and they will
not allow you to see a lawyer for 30 days, which is the period of pre-trial
detention,” he recounts. He moved from Georgia to East Africa, from where he
sought asylum in Germany in October 2017, after his passport was about to
expire. As for Omar, he also left Turkey after the arrest of his father, who
assumed a senior position in the country. But he was more fortunate than others,
because he managed to enter Europe without much difficulty as he was married to
a European.
But the two men’s concerns did not end with leaving Turkey. They are always
worried about being chased.
In 2017, when Hussein arrived in Germany, the German Ministry of Immigration and
Refugees was struggling to maintain its credibility, following the scandal of
the expulsion of more than 15 Turkish translators who were working for it. Those
turned to be spies in Ankara, conveying confidential information to the Turkish
embassy in Berlin about asylum-seekers. However, the Immigration Service
confirms that it has since become vigilant about this matter. In a written
response to Asharq Al-Awsat, a spokesman for the department said that the
applicant “has the right to report any information in this regard to the
security services so that appropriate steps can be taken, and he can also
request a different interpreter if he has a valid reason.”
These concerns have prompted Hussein Demir to refuse to be interviewed in the
Turkish language, and asked to speak in English instead. “I asked to have my
interview done in English because I was afraid of the translator,” he said.
“They understood my concerns and I felt safer to speak through an English rather
than a Turkish translator.”Expert in Turkish intelligence affairs Eric Schmidt-Eenboom
told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Immigration and Refugee Service was one of the
places where Ankara was targeting to recruit agents. He added that Turkey uses
the information leaked about the refugees, not only to chase the families of
those who remain in the country, but also to refute the reasons that prompted
them to seek asylum.
In 2014 and 2015, Turkish refugees in Germany accounted for 1,800 asylum
seekers, most of them Kurds, according to official figures obtained by Asharq
Al-Awsat from the Immigration Department. Those numbers have increased
significantly to reach 5,700 applicants in 2016 and 15,000 last year.
As the number of refugees increased, so did that of Turkish agents spying on
opponents. Schmidt-Eenboom, who has written a book on Turkish intelligence work
in Europe, estimates that there are more than 8,000 Turkish agents in Germany,
in addition to hundreds of spies directly affiliated with Turkish intelligence,
who recruit agents on German soil. “There is an unknown number of Turkish
intelligence elements, many of whom reside in Germany, who work through the
Turkish embassy,” he says.
Indeed, the Turkish authorities arrested a number of citizens who hold dual
German-Turkish citizenship upon their return to Ankara, which caused in the past
a lot of tension between the two countries. Turkey has asked Germany to hand
over a number of wanted persons it considers as “terrorists”. During a visit to
Berlin in 2018, Erdogan handed the list again to German Chancellor Angela
Merkel.
But Berlin has rejected these requests. Instead, the German police moved to warn
the people whose names are on the list against returning to Turkey because they
might get arrested. If Turkish translators play a role in spying on opponents,
the imams assume a bigger and more important task in these operations.
According to Schmidt-Eenboom, nearly 700 Turkish imams who are deployed in more
than 900 mosques of what is known as the DITIB - the Islamic Union for Religious
Affairs in Germany - play an important role in identifying agents to recruit
them.
“These imams exchange information with the Turkish circles and they mediate
between Turkish informants in Germany and Erdogan’s government in Ankara,” he
says. The German authorities are aware of the work assumed by those imams.
In 2017, Berlin tried to open an investigation against 19 Turkish imams on
suspicion of spying on opponents. But the story sparked a lot of political
controversy, and before the prosecution could issue arrest warrants, Ankara had
withdrawn the imams and returned them to Turkey. In an attempt to address this
matter, Germany is seeking to introduce laws that prevent the arrival of imams
from abroad, but instead, training clerics in Germany to preach sermons in
German, not Turkish.
The Ministry of Interior also tried to implement a “tax” on mosques, similar to
that collected from Christians to finance churches, in an attempt to reduce
Turkish influence and funding. But the proposal was rejected by the Muslim
community in Germany and was put on hold.
In 2017, the Hamburg Supreme Court sentenced a 32-year-old man to two years in
prison for spying on Kurdish opponents in favor of Turkish intelligence.
Initially, the charges also included planning to kill a Turkish dissident, but
the prosecution was unable to prove this claim.
However, Turkish intelligence has considered resorting to kidnappings and
murders of its opponents in Germany, according to German expert Schmidt-Eenboom.
Although Germany does not take political measures to put pressure on Turkey in
order to avoid escalating tensions, especially with Erdogan's continued threat
to send a new wave of refugees to Europe, it may consider a different strategy
now after it assumed the rotating European Union presidency.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, member of the German Parliament Frank Schwabe
said that his country could resort to threatening to expel Turkey from the
European Council if it refuses to submit to the decisions of the Human Rights
Council in Strasbourg, which is currently listening to a range of issues related
to the prosecution of Turks only because they are opposed to the regime in
Ankara.
It would not be in Turkey’s interest to exit the European Council, Schwabe
noted, adding that he believed that such threats would push Ankara to stop
chasing its opponents abroad.
Turkey joined the European Council in the 1950s shortly after its founding, and
its expulsion from it may have major repercussions in terms of its relationship
with the European Union.
Turkey Prepares to Set Up Base in Misrata
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 July,
2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is conducting talks with the Libyan
Government of National Accord (GNA) for the possible use of the Misrata naval
base and Al-Watiya airbase. Turkish Naval Forces Commander Adm. Adnan Ozbal paid
a visit to Libya and met Libyan Army's Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Mohammed
Al-Sharif. They discussed the latest developments in Libya and the possibility
of using Al-Watiya airbase and in addition to inaugurating a naval base in
Misrata. On November 27, Ankara and GNA signed two separate pacts, one that
encompasses military cooperation and the other maritime boundaries of the two
countries in the Eastern Mediterranean. A Turkish business delegation is set to
visit Libya within two weeks to assess how Turkey’s companies and banks can help
rebuild the war-torn country and secure its energy needs, sources told Reuters.
Politicians could join the upcoming trip by what they called a “committee” of
business representatives. They will craft a business plan and initially focus on
meeting Libya’s energy needs and re-building and renewing its infrastructure,
sources added. Earlier, a senior Turkish delegation visited the GNA on June 18
to discuss the Libyan updates and the return of Turkish firms in Libya as well
as energy and reconstruction projects. Also, Erdogan expressed support to the
"legitimate government" in Libya that is seeking the country’s unity. The
president was speaking to the members of the ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) via videoconference. He added that Turkey will not leave the fate of
the Libyan people at the mercy of putschists and will continue to act in line
with international law.
World Bank Warns Against Slow Implementation of Virus Containment Strategies
Riyadh- Fatehelrahman Yousif/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 July, 2020
The World Bank warned against the difficulty in holding back the coronavirus
pandemic and a slowdown in implementing containment strategy for the global
economy. It stressed the need for Gulf governments to accelerate the pace of
reforms, in order to achieve a green and diversified economy, largely dependent
on digital technology, and increase the proportion of women participating in
economic activities. World Bank’s Country Director of the GCC Countries Issam
Abousleiman told Asharq Al-Awsat that the pandemic has upped the competition and
reduced the number of regional markets. COVID-19, according to Abousleiman, also
reinforced the risks faced by global supply chains posed by high costs and lack
of innovation. He reaffirmed that it was hard to create a balance among less
risk supply chains and sufficient competition and innovation. Abousleiman
pointed out that the low levels of public debt for some Gulf countries would be
beneficial in absorbing the rapid growth in public debt seen around the world.
The banking sector in Gulf countries enjoys a great flow of liquidity and strong
capital, Abousleiman said, but pointed out that in time decision-makers will
have to face the issue of bailing-out companies.
“Bankruptcy will be the inevitable outcome of the process of moving capital
between deteriorating and expanding sectors,” he said, stressing the importance
of enabling the emerging sectors. According to Abousleiman, the World Bank
called for initiatives with Gulf Cooperation Council member states to support
and facilitate international trade during this pandemic, including the
suspension of customs duties on basic medical and food supplies. It also called
for adopting special measures to facilitate safe cross-border trade and support
better use of risk management. When asked about how the coronavirus pandemic
affected GCC economies, Abousleiman quoted World Bank estimates which predict an
average loss of 6 percentage points of GDP based on 2019 levels. This is
equivalent to $ 103 billion. “We assume that the major event that caused the
change in our expectations over the past months is the pandemic,” Abousleiman
told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that the pandemic affected the global demand for
energy, which in turn affected GCC countries given that they are a primary
producer of oil and gas. “Observations spot particularly large impacts on UAE
and Oman, due to the non-hydrocarbon sectors' reliance on tourism and trade,
while Kuwait has a significant drop in crude oil production, but the shortage in
other sectors contributes to the recession,” Abousleiman said. On
recommendations and advice offered by the World Bank to GCC economies to face
the coronavirus pandemic, Abousleiman said: “As the coronavirus pandemic crisis
persists, it is too early to know all the elements of the economic situation.”
“At this stage, it can be said that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation
Council have benefited from the low levels of public debt in general, "with the
exception of Oman and Bahrain", which allows absorbing the rapid growth in
public debt that we see in different parts of the world,” he added. Abousleiman
also revealed that the strong liquidity and capital in the GCC banking sectors
help through the turbulences faced by the private sector.
Iran reports ‘accident’ in construction near Iran’s Natanz
nuclear site
The Associated Press, Tehran Thursday 02 July 2020
Iran’s nuclear body said an accident had taken place on Thursday at a
construction site in a nuclear complex without causing casualties, state news
agency IRNA reported. “An accident occurred on Thursday morning and damaged a
warehouse under construction in open space at the Natanz site” in central Iran,
said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the country’s Atomic Energy Organisation.
Kamalvandi was further quoted as saying that the complex is currently inactive
and there is no risk of radioactive pollution. The accident did not result in
casualties, he added, noting that the cause was under investigation. He did not
give any details on the nature of the reported accident. Tehran announced in May
last year that it was suspending certain commitments under a multilateral
nuclear deal unilaterally abandoned by the United States in 2018. The 2015
accord promised Iran sanctions relief in exchange for limiting its nuclear
program. US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the deal was followed by
Washington reimposing biting unilateral sanctions. The Natanz facility is one of
Iran’s main uranium enrichment plants.
Vatican informs US, Israel of Holy See’s concern over West
Bank annexation plans
Reuters/Wednesday 01 July 2020
The Vatican, in a highly unusual move, summoned both the US and Israeli
ambassadors to express the Holy See's concern about Israel's moves to extend its
sovereignty to Jewish settlements and the Jordan Valley in the West Bank.
A Vatican statement on Wednesday said meetings with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the
Vatican's secretary of state, and US Ambassador Callista Gingrich and Israeli
Ambassador Oren David, took place on Tuesday.
A senior diplomatic source told Reuters that Parolin met the two envoys
separately, a detail which was not clear in the Vatican statement. It said
Parolin, the Vatican's top diplomat, expressed "the concern of the Holy See
regarding possible unilateral actions that may further jeopardize the search for
peace between Israelis and Palestinians, as well as the delicate situation in
the Middle East." Israeli leaders decided in May that cabinet and parliamentary
deliberations on extending Israeli sovereignty to Jewish settlements and the
Jordan Valley in the West Bank, in coordination with Washington, could begin as
of July 1.
But with no agreement with Washington yet on the modalities of the move under a
peace proposal announced by US President Donald Trump in January, and talks with
the White House still underway, no cabinet session was scheduled for Wednesday.
The Vatican statement reiterated its position in support of a two state
solution, saying "Israel and the State of Palestine have the right to exist and
to live in peace and security, within internationally recognized borders."The
Vatican appealed to Israelis and Palestinians to do everything possible to
reopen the process of direct negotiations on the basis of UN resolutions.
Palestinians seek the West Bank for a future state. In a show of Palestinian
unity, some 3,000 people in the Gaza Strip, including members of the mainstream
Fatah party and the rival Hamas group that runs the enclave, protested against
annexation.
Turkey wants France to apologize over ‘false’ Mediterranean
Libya war ship claims
AFP/Thursday 02 July 2020
Turkey’s foreign minister said on Thursday that France should apologize for
making “false claims” about a naval incident in the Mediterranean that has added
to growing tensions between the NATO allies. “When France makes false claims and
works against Turkey, that should not be accepted,” Mevlut Cavusoglu told
reporters in Berlin. “We expect France to apologize unconditionally,” he said,
after Paris last month denounced an “extremely aggressive” intervention by
Turkish ships against a French navy vessel participating in a NATO Mediterranean
maritime security operation.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on July 02-03/2020
Politics, Lies and Gaddafi Tapes: The
plots uncovered by Libyan intelligence leaks
Tommy Hilton/Al Arabiya English/Thursday 02 July 2020
A recent flurry of audio recordings leaked by a Qatari opposition activist has
again drawn attention to Qatar’s controversial foreign policy positions and ties
to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The series of audio clips add further insights into some of the political
conversations that Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi (r. 1969-2011) had with
Qatar’s former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani (r. 1995-2013), Qatar’s
former Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, and Kuwaiti MPs with
links to the Brotherhood.
A previous leak from 2017 had captured Gaddafi with the former Emir and Prime
Minister plotting against Saudi Arabia and discussing plans to create chaos in
Arab countries.
At the time, Qatar dismissed the recording, saying that the Qatari royals had
been humoring Gaddafi, who was known for his erratic speeches.
But at the end of May this year, Qatari opposition activist Khalid al-Hail
released the first of a new set of recordings that have recast the spotlight on
Qatar’s foreign policy, including its links with Muslim Brotherhood activists,
who also feature in the new leaks.
The first leak captured Qatar’s former Emir Sheikh Hamad seemingly calling
former US President Barack Obama a “slave,” the first in a series of explosive
revelations to be caught on audio.
Throughout June, al-Hail released further leaks that have brought renewed
attention to the allegations made against Qatar by the Arab Quartet of Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, who have been boycotting the small Gulf
state since 2017.
These accusations include Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its use
of the Doha-based Al Jazeera network to undermine governments in neighboring
countries, especially Saudi Arabia.
Now, al-Hail says that he is still planning to release more leaks that would be
“nothing in comparison” to what he leaked so far – despite receiving death
threats.
Here is everything you need to know about the leaks, and their potential
consequences for the region.
Who is publishing the Gaddafi-Qatar leaks?
Qatari opposition activist Khalid al-Hail has published the leaks in Arabic
periodically on his Twitter page.
Al-Hail is one of the most prominent Qatari critics of the royal family,
especially the former Emir Sheikh Hamad, and has been described as “the leader
of the Qatari opposition.”
He was imprisoned by the Qatari regime in 2010 and 2014, he told the New York
Times, saying he had been tortured and electrocuted.
Now in exile in London, al-Hail heads the Qatar National Democratic Party, which
calls for the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in Qatar. He frequently
appears on media channels criticizing the ruling al-Thani family.
What is the source of the Gaddafi-Qatar leaks?
Al-Hail did not reveal the source of the audio files when asked by Al Arabiya,
and Al Arabiya English has been unable to access the originals for verification.
“A person would have reservations revealing their source but myself like many
others who received information, the space is open, but I mean the leaks I
posted are all exclusive and I am sure as I transcribed them myself, especially
the ones I published myself,” he said in an interview this week.
Many of the leaks feature the voice of the Libyan dictator Gaddafi, who promoted
a revolutionary ideology that advocated overthrowing other Arab leaders while he
ruled Libya from 1969 until his death in 2011.
Some of the leaks also refer to the US invasion of Iraq, placing them between
2003 and 2011.
Others refer to a peace treaty between Sudan and a rebel group signed in 2006.
One source, who asked to remain anonymous, said that some of the conversations
might have taken place in Doha in 2009, when Gaddafi famously stormed out of the
Arab summit after insulting Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah.
One possibility is that the audio recordings come from the records of Gaddafi’s
regime, many of which fell into the hands of a range of groups following the
bloody coup that overthrew the dictator in 2011.
“Gaddafi was known to record conversations so it is plausible that this has come
from his mukhabarat [secret police],” said Tim Eaton, a Libya expert and senior
research fellow with Chatham House’s MENA Program.
Eaton also suggested that as Qatar currently backs Islamist groups in Libya’s
ongoing war, it might make sense for people opposed to the Islamists to release
leaks about Doha.
Many of the leaks also appear to have some redacted elements when Gaddafi is
talking, potentially adding more evidence that they were conversations that took
place in either Qatar or Libya that were recorded by Libyan intelligence
services.
Have the leaks been acknowledged?
None of the individuals in the videos have denied their authenticity, and Qatar
acknowledged the first set of recordings when they came out in 2017.
In an appearance on Qatari television, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin
Jassim dismissed the conversations as Qatari officials merely humoring Gaddafi.
“[Gaddafi] asked for Al Jazeera to be part of it. He gave us tapes and
everything and asked us to release them against Saudi Arabia. We didn’t release
anything. After that, he said he’s preparing a conspiracy to change the rulers
of Saudi Arabia. We used to laugh at him,” said Sheikh Hamad.
One of the Kuwaiti former MPs in the recordings, Mubarak al-Duwailah, tacitly
acknowledged their authenticity by tweeting that he had received permission to
meet with Gaddafi from the Kuwaiti government – which the government later
denied.
Despite this, his brother Nasser denied the recordings authenticity on Twitter,
describing a “story of fabrications, incomplete records, edited image and
clips.” In response, al-Hail pointed out that both Mubarak and the Kuwaiti
government had acknowledged the recordings, and Kuwait’s government has launched
an official investigation into al-Duwailah’s appearance in the leaks.
Al-Hail told Al Arabiya that he had received death threats from people who did
not want him to release the audio files.
“If it was matter of selling yourself like a mercenary ... and a lot of offer
actually came, but the story is not just about the monetary offers but there’s
been a lot of threats, telling me I will be assassinated or killed, basically
acts of intimidation, etc,” he said.
What are they key takeaways from the leaks?
The leaks have attracted attention to Doha’s links with Gaddafi and other
regimes, including that of Bashar al-Assad.
In one recording, the former emir can be heard saying: “As a small country we
used to be ostracized by the big countries. But thank God there [are countries]
like Libya standing with us, Oman, Syria recently.”
A theme that runs throughout the recordings is Gaddafi’s plan to destabilize
other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to which the Qataris appear to
assent.
On more than one occasion, the conversation centers on how to overthrow the Al
Saud family and carve Saudi Arabia into different states.
Saad al-Faqih, a London-based Saudi Arabian opposition dissident, is mentioned
on several occasions as a tool for the conspiracy.
In the 2017 recordings, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim and Gaddafi building a network
agents in Europe, as well as the need to build ties with the US and Israel to
reduce pressure from the US, which they suggest is linked to Saudi Arabian
lobbying against Qatar.
According to the Saudi Arabian commentator Ali Shihabi, the leaks “confirm
Qatar’s active efforts to subvert the Kingdom, which is the main issue at
dispute here.”
“Let them stop that and relations can revert to normal. After all, Doha lives in
the same neighborhood, and a fire it starts in Riyadh will inevitably burn Doha
down too. Time to stop this nonsense and move forward as a unified GCC that
faces identical threats,” he told Al Arabiya English.
The recordings also touch upon several of the points of contention between Doha
and the Arab Quartet that have contributed to the ongoing boycott.
The Quartet accuses Doha of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which the UAE and
Egypt have designated as a terrorist organization.
According to commentators, the fact that Gaddafi was having similar
conversations with Qatari rulers and Kuwaiti MPs with links to the Brotherhood
is evidence for Doha’s complicity in a regional conspiracy.
“[The recordings have] exposed the extent of the conspiracy plotted by the
Muslim Brotherhood members, under Qatar’s guidance, as they seek to ruin their
countries and spread “constructive chaos” in Arab countries, specifically the
Gulf,” wrote journalist Salman al-Dossary in Asharq al-Awsat.
They also bring into question Al Jazeera’s editorial independence from Doha,
with the leaks appearing to suggest that the station’s coverage was at least
influenced by the former Qatar emir.
Varsha Koduvayur, a senior research analyst at the Washington-based think tank
Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said that this was not the first
time such allegations had emerged.
“There should be no doubt that Al Jazeera is far from independent in its
coverage, especially since the Arab Spring,” she added.
Who are the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood affiliated members in the leaks?
The most recent audio leaks feature three Kuwaiti former MPs.
Hakem al-Mutairi
The first is Hakem al-Mutairi, a known extremist preacher now living in exile in
Turkey.
Al-Mutairi was designated as a terrorist by the Arab Quartet, which called on
Doha to sever its ties with him in 2017.
In Kuwait, he had previously founded the Ummah Party, an unrecognized political
party that promoted alleged extremist views. Beforehand, he was a member of the
Kuwaiti Salafi Movement and a frequent critic of Saudi Arabia.
The preacher is active on Twitter, where he has both Arabic and Turkish
accounts, and frequently tweets criticizing the US and Israel.
In the most recent recording, al-Mutairi is heard plotting against the Saudi
Arabian and Kuwaiti governments.
Sources at Kuwait University, where al-Mutairi was a Sharia professor, revealed
that Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior had launched an investigation into al-Mutairi
based on the recording.
Al-Mutairi was reached for comment but did not respond in time for publication.
Mubarak al-Duwailah
Mubarak al-Duwailah is a Kuwaiti former MP who was a member of the Muslim
Brotherhood until the 1990s, and now heads the Islamic Constitutional Movement,
an organization that shares a similar ideology.
Born in 1954, al-Duwailah studied engineering in the US before entering politics
and becoming an MP in Kuwait in 1985.
He was a member of the Brotherhood until the first Gulf War, after which he left
the organization due to its support for Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait,
according to the Erem news channel.
Al-Duwailah attracted controversy for criticizing the leaders of regional
countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In 2015, he was convicted to five
years in prison in abstention for insulting Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed.
Audio released on Sunday reportedly captured al-Duwailah meeting with Gaddafi,
in which he responds to the Libyan leader’s speech about the imminent fall of
Saudi Arabia’s ruling Al Saud family.
“We hear from the guys there that their situation is not good, even amongst
themselves they have many issues,” he says, in response to Gaddafi’s claims.
Al-Duwailah tacitly acknowledged the recording’s veracity by responding to it in
a tweet, in which he claimed he had briefed the Kuwaiti Emir about his meeting
with Gaddafi.
However, Kuwait’s Amiri Diwan – the name for the Emir’s royal palace – rejected
al-Duwailah’s claims and launched an investigation into his conduct.
“Kuwait’s Amiri Diwan Sunday termed as ‘totally untrue and fabrications’ the
remarks made Mubarak Al-Duwailah that he briefed His Highness the Amir about
details of his meeting with ex-president Muammar Gaddafi,” said a statement
posted on the official Kuwait News Agency (KUNA).
Al-Duwailah was reached for comment but did not respond in time for publication.
Fayez Hamed al-Baghili al-Rashidi
The third figure is the less well-known Fayez Hamed al-Baghili al-Rashidi, also
a former Kuwaiti MP.
Al-Baghili is heard praising Gaddafi for his peacekeeping efforts in Sudan,
where Gaddafi apparently helped broker a ceasefire between the Sudanese
government and the Rashaida Free Lions, an armed group based in eastern Sudan.
Al-Duwailah claimed on Twitter that he and al-Baghili had been in Libya to help
the negotiations. Both are reportedly members of the Kuwaiti branch of the
Rashaida tribe.
According to al-Hail on Twitter, al-Baghili and al-Duwailah had previously
claimed that Gaddafi had not been involved in the ceasefire negotiations and
that the Kuwaitis had brokered them themselves.
In the recording, al-Baghili refers to the Rashaida people and praises Gaddafi,
describing him as “brother leader” and praising his apparent peacekeeping
efforts in Sudan.
This would place the recording after 2006, when the Free Lions signed a peace
treaty with the Khartoum government.
What do the recordings tell us about the Muslim Brotherhood?
Commentators have said that the recordings give further evidence to the links
between Doha and the Muslim Brotherhood across the region.
Support for the Brotherhood, which the UAE and Egypt have designated as a
terrorist organization, is one of the demands of the Arab Quartet for it to
restore relations with Qatar.
“Such revelations only come to underline the historic decision taken by Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to boycott Qatar in June
2017 and designate the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist. Meanwhile, Mutairi is an
extremist who was included in the terrorism list announced by Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain in 2017. It goes without saying that he is one of the
main recipients of Doha’s financial and media support,” wrote journalist Salman
al-Dossary in Asharq al-Awsat.
For al-Hail, the recordings expose the Kuwaitis as “political beggars” who went
to Gaddafi for support, which al-Hail says helps expose the Muslim Brotherhood
and its “climbers and fawners.”
“In the end, I think that the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait in particular will
fall and fall strongly because what we have on them, whether documents or file
or even recordings or others, all these are documented,” said al-Hail.
“Even Hakim al-Mutairi, he deceived his country, he deceived many people in the
Arab Gulf region. You only heard a part of the leaks, but you don’t know the
rest of it. He created a system that exists even in Saudi Arabia and even in
people who are now imprisoned on terror charges who were also complicit,” he
added.
What is the role of Al Jazeera?
The new leaks have also attracted scrutiny to the Doha-based Al Jazeera network.
In two of the leaks, Sheikh Hamad and Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim appear to discuss
Al Jazeera coverage with Gaddafi.
In one, the former prime minister appears to tell Gaddafi that the network will
not host guests who are critical of Gaddafi.
“Give us names ... if you give us the people that you don’t want to come out on
Al Jazeera. The person that coordinates between us and you ... [inaudible] ...
Abdulla,” Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim seems to be heard telling Gaddafi.
The late Libyan leader then replies: “The agreement is that anyone who attacks
Libya, they’re not allowed.”
In the second, the former emir appears to tell Gaddafi that Al Jazeera has not
stopped its negative coverage of Saudi Arabia.
“Al Jazeera stopped [negative coverage] of Saudi Arabia,” Gaddafi says, to which
Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa replies: “No, no, no. The stop that you’re referring to
did not happen.”
After Gaddafi says that Qatar’s other television channels now have the same
coverage of Saudi Arabia as Al Jazeera, seemingly implying the need for a change
in the coverage, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim interrupts, and says he agrees with the
Libyan leader.
Another section of the leaks also seemed to suggest that the Muslim Brotherhood
runs Al Jazeera, with Hamad bin Jassim appearing to respond to Gaddafi’s claims
that Brotherhood members run programs on the station by saying “I agree with
you, I am telling you this is true.”
Al Jazeera’s coverage has also been a cause of disagreement between the Arab
Quartet and Doha. The Quartet accuses Qatar of using Al Jazeera to undermine the
governments of neighboring countries and destabilize the region, while Qatar
insists that the station’s coverage is independent.
“This would not be the first time such allegations emerged. Leaked diplomatic
cables (through WikiLeaks) showed Qatari officials boasting about changing Al
Jazeera’s coverage as well. There should be no doubt that Al Jazeera is far from
independent in its coverage, especially since the Arab Spring,” said the FDD’s
Koduvayur.
Will there be more leaks?
Al-Hail has said that there will be more revealing leaks on the way, despite
receiving death threats.
“Unfortunately, what I saw and heard, is something abnormal. What I leaked is
nothing in comparison,” he said.
Turkey and Qatar: Love in Bloom
Burak Bekdil/BESA Center Perspectives/July 02/2020
Qatari Emir Tamim bin-Hamad al-Thani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
share a tender moment.
Few Qataris who fought the Ottoman colonialists to gain their independence in
1915 and end the 44-year-long Turkish rule in the peninsula would ever have
imagined that their grandchildren would become Turkey's closest strategic
allies.
Qatar, a tiny but extremely wealthy sheikdom, has a constitution based on sharia
(Islamic religious law), while Turkey's constitution is strictly secular
(officially, if not in practice). In Qatar, flogging and stoning—unthinkable in
Turkey—are legal forms of punishment. In Qatar, apostasy is a crime punishable
by death, while in Turkey it is not a criminal offense.
But the ideological kinship between the two Sunni Muslim countries, which is
based on passionate political support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood (and
a religious hatred of Israel), seems to have produced a bond that threatens
Western interests.
In 2014 Turkey and Qatar signed a strategic security agreement that gave Ankara
a military base in the Gulf state, which is already home to the largest US air
base in the Middle East (al-Udeid). Turkey stationed some 3,000 ground troops at
its Qatari base in addition to air and naval units, military trainers, and
special operations forces.
In 2017, in a Sunni vs. Sunni drama in the Gulf, a Saudi-led coalition imposed a
blockade on Qatar accusing it of supporting terrorism and fostering ties with
the rival Shiite force, Iran. Turkey immediately rushed to Qatar's aid, sending
cargo ships and hundreds of planes loaded with food and essential supplies to
break the blockade. Ankara also deployed more troops at its military base in
Qatar in a gesture suggesting that it would assist in protecting the country
militarily.
2018 was payback time for the sheikdom. Doha pledged $15 billion in investment
in Turkish banks and financial markets when Turkey's national currency lost 40%
of its value against major Western currencies in the face of US sanctions. In
other words, one US ally in the Middle East was financially helping another US
ally evade US sanctions.
The Qatari favor to the Turkish nation was followed by a massive gift to its
leader when Qatar's emir, Tamim bin-Hamad al-Thani, gave Turkish president Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan a Boeing 747-8 aircraft, the world's largest and most expensive
private jet, priced at around $400 million.
Qataris own a 49% stake in BMC, one of the largest military vehicle
manufacturers in Turkey.
The Turkish-Qatari love affair had its tender moments in defense industry
cooperation too. A Qatari investment fund bought a 49% stake in BMC, a Turkish
armored vehicles manufacturer, whose Turkish partners are notorious Erdoğan
cronies. In a bidding result that surprised no one, BMC won the serial
production contract for the Altay, the indigenous, next-generation Turkish main
battle tank in the making. Under the multi-billion-dollar deal, BMC will
eventually produce more than 1,000 Altays. (In a controversial move, Erdoğan's
government also allocated a military-run tank facility to BMC.) In one of
several defense industry deals, Havelsan, a state-controlled military software
company in Ankara, signed a partnership agreement with Al Mesned Holdings in
Qatar for a joint venture that will specialize in cyber-security solutions for
the sheikdom.
So far so good. But Turkey's fundamental economic imbalances persist and are
likely to worsen in the post-pandemic era. The unemployment rate, officially
13.6% in February, is forecast to reach 17.2% by the end of the year. The
national currency has depreciated as sharply as it did during the 2018 crisis:
One US dollar was traded at 7.26 Turkish liras in mid-May 2020 versus 3 liras in
September 2016. Following a 20% rise within a year, Turkey's gross foreign
currency liabilities have reached $300 billion (net foreign liabilities are at
$175 billion). Mismanagement and palliative efforts to keep the lira afloat has
caused the Turkish Central Bank to burn through $65 billion in reserves since
January 2019.
In order to stop the lira's slide and provide Turkish banks with the foreign
liquidity they need, the Central Bank has been desperately but unsuccessfully
seeking currency swap agreements* with the world's major economies, including
with the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England.
All this financial misfortune comes at a time when the Turkish economy is poised
to deteriorate further due to potential US sanctions. Washington has warned of
sanctioning Turkey as part of the Countering Adversaries of America Through
Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for having acquired the Russian-made S-400 long-range air
and anti-missile defense system. The sanctions will go into effect if Ankara
activates the Russian system. Additionally, a US court has threatened to
sanction, at the magnitude of billions of dollars, a Turkish government lender,
Halkbank, for evading US sanctions on Iran. If those sanctions go into effect,
Turkey's economic troubles could turn into an existential financial/political
crisis that would threaten Erdoğan.
Erdoğan knew where to turn for help. On May 20 the Turkish Central Bank
announced that it had tripled its currency swap agreement with Qatar,* meaning
it had secured much-needed foreign currency funding. The deal raised the 2018
swap agreement's $5 billion limit to $15 billion and immediately boosted the
lira.
Once again, US ally Qatar has rushed to offer financial aid to US ally Turkey to
help it withstand US sanctions. Just as it did in 2018, Qatar has at least
partially thwarted US sanctions.
Ally cohesion? Not really.
*Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based political analyst and a fellow at the Middle
East Forum.
The FDA Wants a Covid-19 Vaccine That Really Works
Max Nisen/Bloomberg/ July 02/2020
As the entire world awaits a vaccine against Covid-19, the US Food and Drug
Administration is explicitly rejecting one of the fastest possible paths to
releasing one. That’s a good thing.
On Tuesday, the agency issued guidance on the standards it will use in
evaluating and approving a vaccine. Its benchmarks are nonbinding, but have
teeth nonetheless. The FDA has let vaccine developers know that it won’t be
enough to show evidence that their candidate can merely provoke an immune
response in a blood test — the kind of data that could be available relatively
quickly. Vaccine hopefuls will have to demonstrate real-world safety and
effectiveness in large trials.
The agency also set an explicit threshold for success: Candidates should perform
at least 50% better than a placebo in blunting the risk of infection or illness.
The guidance suggests that approval may take longer than some hope. However,
demanding real data and setting a transparent standard is the best way to ensure
that we get an effective vaccine.
The FDA often approves drugs based on so-called surrogate endpoints. These are
measures of the effect of a treatment that probably correlate to, but don't
guarantee, favorable clinical outcomes. Such metrics can be well-validated, and
using them gets medicines to needy patients faster. The process is imperfect,
however, and has in the past led to the approval of drugs that, on further
examination, turned out to be ineffective. Such an outcome would be more likely
— and particularly catastrophic — in the case of a Covid-19 vaccine, because
scientists are only beginning to understand immunity to the novel coronavirus
and how potential vaccines might work. The FDA cites this uncertainty to explain
its recommendation that drug makers focus on real-world performance. If using a
surrogate endpoint led the FDA to approve an ineffective shot, it could not only
put inoculated people at risk of contracting Covid-19 but also weaken public
trust in the process, reducing the acceptance of future vaccines.
The FDA has made it clear that even emergency approval will be granted only
after it sees data from extensive studies that show a reasonable degree of
effectiveness.
The new guidance sets out a broad set of potential trial goals, ranging from
preventing severe disease to stopping infection outright. This could mean that
the agency initially approves a vaccine that provides imperfect protection — and
that Covid-19 will plague the world for longer than hoped. But the targets give
drug makers reason to run robust trials. The path the FDA outlines is a long
one. It’s going to take a while to recruit and enroll 30,000 people in a trial
and give half of them two shots in the arm — as Moderna Therapeutics Inc.
intends to do to test its candidate. And until a sufficient number of subjects
in the placebo arm of such a trial contract Covid-19, there won’t be any firm
results. Any number of variables could cause further delays: bad luck, a poor
vaccine performance, or slowing case growth. The FDA is by no means ignoring the
urgency of the moment. Its guidance includes a variety of concessions on safety
data and other issues that are meant to speed the process. But the world can be
grateful the agency is willing to bend only so far.
‘Smart Lockdowns’ Are the Future in Europe
Ferdinando Giugliano/Bloomberg/ July 02/2020
European Union countries are experimenting with new ways of dealing with the
coronavirus. Germany, Portugal and Italy have all enforced selective or “smart”
lockdowns, shutting down smaller regions in response to new outbreaks as opposed
to bringing their entire countries to a halt.
This approach is the only hope of returning to a more normal life as we wait for
a vaccine. However, it also puts a much larger onus on the public sector
compared to generalized lockdowns. Health officials have to ensure small
outbreaks do not get out of control and force the need for harsher measures.
Germany has seen a number of outbreaks in abattoirs, leading local governments
to declare new lockdowns, such as in the municipality of Guetersloh, and enforce
partial lockdowns, such as in the nearby town of Warendorf. Over the past few
months, Italy has managed to contain some small flare-ups, including one in the
tiny region of Molise and one in Rome, without having to impose additional
restrictions. But the southern region of Calabria has recently imposed
quarantine on an area of the seaside town of Palmi, after a handful of cases
were reported. And after a worrying new spike in cases, Portugal has ordered
stores in parts of the Lisbon region to shut down early, among other
restrictions.
Some of these cases show striking similarities. For example, many of these new
outbreaks originated in migrant communities facing overcrowded living quarters
or unsafe working conditions. This was true of one meat processing plant owned
by the Toennies Group in Germany, where more than a thousand employees, most of
them migrants from Eastern Europe, came down with Covid-19. This was also the
case of the much smaller outbreak in Italy’s central region of Marche. It was
similar in Portugal: At the end of May, an outbreak emerged in Lisbon’s Jamaica
neighborhood, which was already struggling with a housing crisis. Health-care
facilities are another potential source of contagion, as was the case for the
recent flare-up in Rome.
So far, the authorities have managed to contain these outbreaks. In Italy, the
number of new infections has been stable in the low hundreds for the past few
weeks, despite a substantial reopening of the economy. In Germany, the
reproduction rate “R” of the coronavirus, which measures how many people a virus
carrier infects on average, shot up to nearly three last weekend — well above
the level of one needed to believe the outbreak is under control. Fortunately,
this factor has begun to decline. According to the country’s Robert Koch
Institute, it also does not appear to be too alarming since the overall number
of cases remains relatively low. This tailored approach to lockdowns is in no
way a repudiation of the more draconian measures most European countries
enforced earlier. In fact, the current strategy can only work because Europe has
largely brought new infections under control. It doesn’t look as feasible for
countries such as the US and Brazil, where new infections are still on the rise
in many areas. Smart lockdowns require the collaboration of citizens: Wearing
masks and maintaining social distancing are two ways to reduce the risk of a new
surge in cases. However, much of the burden falls on governments. They have to
identify new cases early through rapid testing and contact tracing in order to
circumscribe contagion. Getting more people to download contact-tracing apps
would help on this front (not enough have done so in France and Italy), but the
authorities will also have to ensure local health-care systems have enough staff
to trace infections effectively. Finally, they’ll need to manage the process of
reopening borders carefully, especially when it comes to countries that have not
yet kept the virus in check.
Of course, all of this may not be enough. A few “superspreader events” or even
individual “superspreaders” could prove particularly challenging to manage. But
if Europe is successful in this new phase of its fight against the pandemic, the
economic and social benefits could be huge. Only a vaccine or a benign mutation
will ensure that the Covid-19 threat is over. Until then, smart lockdowns are
the best hope we have.
How Schools Will Reopen Safely This Fall
Faye Flam/Bloomberg/ July 02/2020
For children, keeping schools closed in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic
amounts to a cure that’s worse than the disease. Children are much less likely
than adults to suffer any severe consequences of the virus, and they are at risk
of suffering academically and emotionally if they miss more months of school.
That’s one reason it’s good news that K-12 schools are gearing up to reopen in
the fall.
“We know that in all kids, active engagement in learning is important for their
development,” says Yale University infectious disease expert Albert Ko. There
will be changes, however, that will make the school year far from normal.
As with everything else associated with this pandemic, safety measures will vary
from place to place, as there’s not yet a scientifically agreed-upon standard
for protecting students from Sars-CoV-2. Scientists are still trying to figure
it out, and everyone is learning as they go along. Masks will undoubtedly be
required for some students, though there’s still disagreement over whether they
should be worn all the time by very young kids. The experts say they may end up
touching their faces to fiddle with masks, thus increasing their odds of
becoming infected.
If there’s any consensus, it’s that getting kids back into the classroom is
worth the risks. “There’s accumulating evidence that even two months of schools
closing in the spring did significant damage to the educational process in
children,” says Colorado pediatrician Sean O’Leary, a spokesman for the American
Academy of Pediatrics who has been helping put together a set of safety
guidelines for restarting schools.
This is a big change from March, when scientists thought this disease might act
like influenza pandemics, whose spread can be fueled by school outbreaks, and
which can be deadly to children.
With the flu, the youngest and oldest members of the population are the most
adversely affected, says Vineet Menachery, an immunologist at University of
Texas Medical Branch. Coronaviruses, including those causing the previous SARS
and MERS epidemics, don’t seem to have the same pattern. Kids and teens are much
less likely than adults to get severe cases or die.
Still, a few children have been hospitalized with a severe inflammatory
syndrome, which affects their blood vessels, skin and organs. “It’s driven by
something the virus is doing that we don’t understand,” says Menachery. They
still don’t have reliable statistics on the risk, he says, except that so far it
appears to be rare. O’Leary, the Colorado pediatrician, says more kids die and
are hospitalized for complications of flu and other respiratory infections,
which aren’t deemed dangerous enough to close schools.
Another concern is that the virus will have a chance to spread in schools and
spark outbreaks in communities. But the good news is that kids may be less
likely to transmit the disease than adults. A study in Iceland that used a
random sample of people revealed that children and teenagers were about half as
likely to test positive for the virus as adults. By reading slight genetic
differences from one virus to the next, they could track how the disease spread
from person to person, and determined that within families, there were only two
cases where kids gave the virus to an adult.
O’Leary says it’s also reassuring to see that while thousands of day care
centers have been running for children of essential workers, only a couple of
cases have been documented in the adults who work there. And another study from
France showed schoolchildren were unlikely to spread the disease to parents,
teachers or each other.
Many decisions are being left up to individual schools, says Sharon Nachman,
Chief of Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at Stony Brook University.
Younger kids will be encouraged to wash their hands more often, hand sanitizers
will be ubiquitous, and masks will be common. She says she it may be difficult
to expect younger children to wear masks all day long. In some places it might
be required, while others will focus on getting kids to mask up when they’re on
the bus or walking through the hallways.
Different schools will also find ways to limit the number of children in a
classroom — whether it’s having an early and late shift, or having half the kids
attend every other week on Zoom, though remote learning will be complicated by
parents’ return to work. One thing every school should do is make sure sick kids
don’t come to class.
The new guidelines are flexible, says O’Leary, because measures such as
spreading kids out in classrooms will be easier for some schools than others.
And some remote learning may remain necessary in situations where a particular
child’s health problems or those of a family member make classroom learning too
dangerous. There’s also a risk that severe outbreaks force some schools to close
again.
All these changes will have unintended consequences. Will students be able to
hear masked teachers? Will staggered schedules cause sleep problems for the
early shift or conflicts with parents’ works schedules? Will bus drivers be put
at unacceptable risk?
We’ll soon find out. And as we do, experts should gather lots of data to
identify best practices among the hodgepodge of approaches, so that schools can
find ways to stay open even if the pandemic worsens. There’s a lot at stake.
Black Lives Matter: "We Are Trained Marxists" - Part I
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/July 02/2020
Black Lives Matter is a Marxist revolutionary movement aimed at transforming the
United States into a communist dystopia. BLM states that it wants to abolish the
nuclear family, police, prisons and capitalism. BLM leaders have threatened to
"burn down the system" if their demands are not met. They are also training
militias.
"Cutting the LAPD budget means longer responses to 911 emergency calls, officers
calling for backup won't get it, and rape, murder and assault investigations
won't occur or will take forever to initiate, let alone complete." — Los Angeles
Police Protective League, the city's police union.
"White people are so confused in America.... If there is systematic racism today
it is a racism against white people, in the sense that white people are told
that they are responsible for all the evils in the world...." — Dr. Carol M.
Swain, university professor and advisory board member of Black Voices for Trump.
"We are all human beings in God's image. Black Lives Matter and Antifa and
organizations like that will not help us transcend racism and classism and the
'isms' that they are concerned with. There are things that can be done in the
black community, but the most important thing is helping people realize to how
important their own attitudes are..." — Dr. Carol M. Swain.
Black Lives Matter is a Marxist revolutionary movement aimed at transforming the
United States into a communist dystopia. BLM states that it wants to abolish the
nuclear family, police, prisons and capitalism. BLM leaders have threatened to
"burn down the system" if their demands are not met. They are also training
militias. Pictured: A man carries and upside-down US flag with "BLM" written on
it, at a protest march in Boston, Massachusetts on June 22, 2020.
A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that more than two-thirds of
Americans support the Black Lives Matter movement. The high level of backing
raises the question of how much the public knows about BLM.
On the surface, BLM presents itself as a grassroots movement dedicated to the
noble tasks of fighting racism and police brutality. A deeper dive shows that
BLM is a Marxist revolutionary movement aimed at transforming the United States
— and the entire world — into a communist dystopia.
This is the first of a two-part series, which reveals:
BLM's founders openly admit to being Marxist ideologues. Their self-confessed
mentors include former members of the Weather Underground, a radical "leftwing"
terrorist group that sought to bring a communist revolution to the United States
in the 1960s and 1970s. BLM is friendly with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro,
whose socialist policies have brought economic collapse and untold misery to
millions of people there.
BLM states that it wants to abolish: the nuclear family; police and prisons;
heteronormativity; and capitalism. BLM and groups associated with it are
demanding a moratorium on rent, mortgages and utilities, and reparations for a
long list of grievances. BLM leaders have threatened to "burn down the system"
if their demands are not met. They are also training militias based on the
militant Black Panther movement of the 1960s.
BLM, which is not registered as a non-profit organization for tax purposes, has
raised tens of millions of dollars in donations. BLM's finances are opaque.
BLM's donations are collected by ActBlue, a fundraising platform linked to the
Democratic Party and causes associated with it. Indeed, BLM leaders have
confirmed that their immediate goal is to remove U.S. President Donald J. Trump
from office.
Most importantly, the main premise of BLM is based on a lie — namely that the
United States is "at war" with African Americans. Blacks are not being
systematically targeted by whites. Fifty years after the signing of the 1964
Civil Rights Act, more than three in four Americans, including most whites and
blacks, agreed that real progress has been made in getting rid of racial
discrimination. Scholars have noted that BLM's inability to produce solid
empirical evidence of systemic racism explains why its leaders continue to
"broaden and deepen" the indictment to include the entire American social and
political order.
BLM in its Own Words
"We actually do have an ideological frame. Myself and Alicia [Garza] in
particular, we're trained organizers. We are trained Marxists. We are super
versed on ideological theories." — BLM co-founder Patrisse Cullors, July 22,
2015.
"If this country doesn't give us what we want, then we will burn down this
system and replace it. All right? And I could be speaking figuratively. I could
be speaking literally. It's a matter of interpretation.... I just want black
liberation and black sovereignty, by any means necessary." — BLM activist Hank
Newsome, June 25, 2020.
"Stay in the streets! The system is throwing every diversionary and
de-mobilizing tactic at us. We are fighting to end policing and prisons as a
system which necessitates fighting white supremacist capitalist
heteropatriarchal imperialism. Vet your comrades and stay focused." — BLM
Chicago, Twitter, June 16, 2020.
"There's no such thing as 'blue lives.' There is no hue of a blue life. Being a
police officer is an occupation. It's a job. 'All lives matter'— it's like
saying the sky is blue. I haven't heard how police are on the right side of
history." — BLM co-founder Alicia Garza, ktvu.com, March 30, 2018.
"It's hundreds of years of generational oppression and trauma and
infrastructural racism that impacts our bodies and makes our bodies more
vulnerable to something like a COVID-19." — BLM co-founder Patrisse Cullors,
Hollywood Reporter, June 2, 2020.
"We say #DefundThePolice and #DefundDepOfCorrections because they work in
tandem. The rise of mass incarceration occurred alongside the rise of
militarized and mass policing. They must be abolished as a system." — BLM
Chicago, June 13, 2020.
"We are anti-capitalist. We believe and understand that Black people will never
achieve liberation under the current global racialized capitalist system." —
Movement for Black Lives (M4BL), of which BLM is a part, June 5, 2020.
"'All Lives Matter,' is little more than a racist dog whistle that attempts to
both delegitimize centuries of claims of global anti-Black oppression and
position those who exhibit tremendous pride in their Blackness as enemies of the
state. Well, we are enemies of any racist, sexist, classist, xenophobic state
that sanctions brutality and murder against marginalized people who deserve to
live as free people." — Feminista Jones, BLM activist.
"We stand with Palestinian civil society in calling for targeted sanctions in
line with international law against Israel's colonial, apartheid regime." — BLM
UK, June 28, 2020.
"We are an ABOLITIONIST movement. We do not believe in reforming the police, the
state or the prison industrial complex." — BLM UK, June 21, 2020.
"Yes, I think the statues of the white European they claim is Jesus should also
come down. They are a form of white supremacy. Always have been. In the Bible,
when the family of Jesus wanted to hide, and blend in, guess where they went?
EGYPT! Not Denmark. Tear them down." — BLM leader Shaun King, June 22, 2020.
"We are anti-capitalist: We believe and understand that Black people will never
achieve liberation under the current global racialized capitalist system." —
Movement for Black Lives (M4BL), of which BLM is a part.
"We are living in political moment where for the first time in a long time we
are talking about alternatives to capitalism." — Alicia Garza, BLM co-founder,
March 2015.
"Anti-racism is anti-capitalist, and vice versa. There are no two ways around
it. To be an anti-racist must demand a complete rejection of business as usual.
An end to racism demands transformation of the global political-economic setup."
— Joshua Virasami, BLM UK, June 8, 2020.
Brief History
Black Lives Matter began in July 2013, when George Zimmerman, a 28-year-old
neighborhood watch coordinator of Hispanic-German descent, was acquitted of
homicide charges in the 2012 fatal shooting of Trayvon Martin, a 17-year-old
black high school student, in Sanford, Florida.
Alicia Garza, a black woman from Oakland, California, posted to Facebook what
she described as a "love letter to black folks." She wrote: "I continue to be
surprised at how little black lives matter. Black people. I love you. I love us.
Our lives matter." Patrisse Cullors, a black woman from Los Angeles, California,
then put Garza's Facebook post on Twitter, with the hashtag #BlackLivesMatter.
After seeing the hashtag, Opal Tometi, a first-generation Nigerian American
woman from Phoenix, Arizona, partnered with Garza and Cullors to establish an
internet presence. Tometi purchased the domain name and built BLM's digital
platform, including social media accounts, where they encouraged people to tell
their stories.
The hashtag #BlackLivesMatter gained national attention in August 2014, after
the fatal shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, by Darren
Wilson, a white police officer. The hashtag was ubiquitous during riots in
November 2014, when a grand jury decided not to indict Wilson. By 2018, the
hashtag #BlackLivesMatter had been tweeted over 30 million times.
Since its beginnings seven years ago, Black Lives Matter has grown into a
movement with nearly 40 chapters and thousands of activists in the United
States, Canada and Great Britain. What began as an effort to seek justice for
black people has become far more expansive — and more radical — in its demands.
What's the Agenda?
BLM's worldview is based on a mix of far-left theoretical frameworks, including
critical race theory and intersectional theory. Critical race theory posits that
racism is systemic, based on a system of white supremacy and therefore a
permanent feature of American life. Intersectional theory asserts that people
are often disadvantaged by multiple sources of oppression: their race, class,
gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, and other identity markers.
Black Lives Matter and other purveyors of critical race theory and
intersectional theory reject individual accountability for behavior, criminal or
otherwise, because, according to them, blacks are systemic and permanent victims
of racism. Such racism, according to BLM, can only be defeated by completely
dismantling the American economic, political and social system and rebuilding it
from scratch — according to Marxist principles.
Black Lives Matter seeks to replace the foundational cornerstones of American
society: 1) abolish the Judeo-Christian concept of the traditional nuclear
family, the basic social unit in America; 2) abolish the police and dismantle
the prison system; 3) mainstream transgenderism and delegitimize so-called
heteronormativity (the belief that heterosexuality is the norm); and 4) abolish
capitalism (a free economy) and replace it with communism (a
government-controlled economy).
Abolish the Traditional Nuclear Family
In its policy agenda, Black Lives Matter states that it is committed to
abolishing the traditional nuclear family:
"We disrupt the Western-prescribed nuclear family structure requirement by
supporting each other as extended families and 'villages' that collectively care
for one another, especially our children, to the degree that mothers, parents,
and children are comfortable."
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels rejected the traditional family because,
according to them, the nuclear family, as an economic unit, sustains the
capitalist system. Engels wrote: "The care and education of the children becomes
a public affair; society looks after all children alike, whether they are
legitimate or not."
Many experts have noted that African Americans need stronger, not weaker,
families. In March 1965, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then an Assistant Secretary of
Labor under U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson, wrote a groundbreaking report,
which focused on the roots of black poverty in the United States. The report
linked the many problems plaguing African Americans — crime, joblessness, school
failure, out-of-wedlock births — to the breakdown of the traditional nuclear
family.
When the Moynihan Report was written in 1965, 25% of black children in the
United States were born out of wedlock. Fifty years later, in 2015, more than
75% of black children were born out of wedlock, according to the National Center
for Health Statistics.
Twenty years after the Moynihan Report, Glenn Loury, the first black economist
to earn tenure at Harvard University, lauded Moynihan as a prophet:
"The bottom stratum of the black community has compelling problems which can no
longer be blamed solely on white racism, and which force us to confront
fundamental failures in black society. The societal disorganization among poor
blacks, the lagging academic performance of black students, the disturbingly
high rate of black-on-black crime, and the alarming increase in early unwed
pregnancies among blacks now loom as the primary obstacles to black progress."
Thomas Sowell, an African American economist and social theorist opined that the
Moynihan Report of 1965 "may have been the last honest government report on
race." By contrast, African American civil rights activists criticized Moynihan
for "blaming the victim."
Abolish Police and Prisons
BLM states that it wants to "defund" and ultimately "abolish" police and prisons
in the United States. Police officers would be replaced by educators, social
workers, mental health experts and religious leaders, who, according to BLM,
would bring down the levels of crime.
In an interview with Newsweek, BLM co-founder Cullors said:
"The freedom of mostly white affluent people is predicated on the unfreedom of
black people. So, law enforcement is not actually used to keep black people
safe. They're used to patrol, occupy, harass, abuse, often hunt and mostly, what
we've seen is kill our communities.
"Policing and incarceration are part of a continuum. The policing is the first
response and then incarceration is the last response. And these two systems rely
on each other very, very deeply. We have to be working on getting rid of both
systems."
In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, Cullors explained that she is not
merely an activist but a modern-day abolitionist:
"An abolitionist believes in a world where police and prisons are no longer
weaponized as a tool for public safety."
BLM co-founder Opal Tometi, in an interview with The New Yorker, claimed that
policing in America has its roots in managing slavery and therefore is
systemically racist. She explained:
"We have been fighting and advocating to stop a war on black lives. And that is
how we see it — this is a war on black life. And people understand that this
system is filled with all sorts of inequality and injustice, and that implicit
bias and just outright racism is embedded in the way that policing is done in
this nation — and when you think about it historically, it was founded as a
slave patrol. The evolution of policing was rooted in that...."
Washington, D.C. Police Chief Peter Newsham has warned that underfunding police
departments could cause an increase in excess force by police officers:
"The number one thing that contributes to excessive force in any police agency
is when you underfund it. If you underfund a police agency, it impacts training,
it impacts hiring, it impacts your ability to develop good leaders."
The Los Angeles Police Protective League, the city's police union, said that
budget cuts would be "extremely irresponsible":
"Cutting the LAPD budget means longer responses to 911 emergency calls, officers
calling for backup won't get it, and rape, murder and assault investigations
won't occur or will take forever to initiate, let alone complete."
Polls show that most Americans — including most blacks — do not share BLM's
views on abolishing the police. A recent Rasmussen's report found that 63% of
American adults "regard being a police officer as one of the most important jobs
in our country today." Furthermore, 64% are concerned that the current
anti-police sentiment will lead to fewer people willing to become police
officers, and that it will "reduce public safety in the community where they
live." Importantly, according to the Rasmussen report, "Blacks (67%) are the
most concerned about public safety where they live, compared to 63% of whites
and 65% of other minority Americans."
Abolish Heteronormativity
BLM's policy agenda states:
"We are self-reflexive and do the work required to dismantle cisgender [a term
for people whose gender identity matches their sex assigned at birth] privilege
and uplift Black trans folk, especially Black trans women who continue to be
disproportionately impacted by trans-antagonistic violence....
An academic study titled, "The 'Queering' of Black Lives Matter," describes in
great detail how issues of sexual identity and gender orientation have taken
priority over BLM's original focus on police brutality. The heavy focus on
sexuality has led to accusations that BLM is "a gay movement masquerading as a
black one."
Two of the three founders of BLM describe themselves as "black queer females."
One, Alicia Garza, is married to a biracial transgender male. Patrice Cullors
describes herself as "polyamorous." In interview after interview, Garza and
Cullors raise the issue of "black trans and gender nonconforming people," often
to the exclusion of police brutality.
In an interview with The New Yorker, Garza said that she is not interested in
the American tradition of live and let live: "We want to make sure that people
are not saying, 'Well, whatever you are, I don't care.' No, I want you to care.
I want you to see all of me."
Abolish Capitalism and the "Patriarchal" System
BLM equates capitalism with racism in the same way that its Antifa cousins
equate capitalism with fascism. BLM's views on capitalism are based on the
concept of "racial capitalism," a term created by the late Cedric Robinson, who
posited that capitalism and racism are two sides of the same coin: both are,
according to Robinson, dependent on slavery, violence, imperialism, and
genocide.
The British wing of Black Lives Matter UK states: "We're guided by a commitment
to dismantle imperialism, capitalism, white-supremacy, patriarchy and the state
structures that disproportionately harm black people in Britain and around the
world."
The Movement for Black Lives (M4BL), an "ecosystem" of over 170 Black-led
organizations, including BLM, states:
"We are anti-capitalist: We believe and understand that Black people will never
achieve liberation under the current global racialized capitalist system."
M4BL demands "a reconstruction of the economy to ensure Black communities have
collective ownership" and "a progressive restructuring of tax codes at the
local, state, and federal levels to ensure a radical and sustainable
redistribution of wealth."
M4BL also demands reparations for past and continuing harms:
"The government, responsible corporations and other institutions that have
profited off of the harm they have inflicted on Black people — from colonialism
to slavery through food and housing redlining, mass incarceration, and
surveillance — must repair the harm done. This includes:
"Full and free access for all Black people (including undocumented and currently
and formerly incarcerated people) to lifetime education; a guaranteed minimum
livable income for all Black people; reparations for the wealth extracted from
our communities through environmental racism, slavery, food apartheid, housing
discrimination and racialized capitalism."
The demands of BLM and M4BL are similar to those found in the Communist
Manifesto, which include:
"Abolition of property in land and application of all rents of land to public
purposes; A heavy progressive or graduated income tax; Extension of factories
and instruments of production owned by the State; the bringing into cultivation
of waste-lands, and the improvement of the soil generally in accordance with a
common plan."
BLM's Immediate Demand
BLM co-founder Patrisse Cullors recently confirmed that the immediate goal is to
remove U.S. President Donald J. Trump from office:
"Trump not only needs to not be in office in November, but he should resign now.
Trump needs to be out of office. He is not fit for office. And so, what we are
going to push for is a move to get Trump out. While we're also going to continue
to push and pressure Joe Biden around his policies and relationship to policing
and criminalization. That's going to be important. But our goal is to get Trump
out."
Evaluations of BLM's Agenda
In an interview with Chanel Rion of One America News Network, Dr. Carol M.
Swain, a university professor, public intellectual, and advisory board member of
Black Voices for Trump, said:
"It's very clear to me that the Black Lives Matter organization is about
something much bigger than black people, that it really is pushing a socialist,
Marxist agenda.
"White people are so confused in America. I hate to say it like that but I don't
know any other way to say it: They want to signal to black people that they care
and the only way they feel like they can do that is to agree with the slogan,
which is a true statement, that black lives matter in the same way that all
lives matter. White lives matter, brown lives matter, but they can't separate
the slogan, which is a true statement, from an organization that has a goal that
I believe is ultimately destructive to America.
"There is something very wrong when they argue that racism is permanent. If it's
permanent, then there is nothing you can do about it. That white skin is
property that means that people who just happen to have been born white they
have property that gives them advantages over blacks.
"If there is systematic racism today it is a racism against white people, in the
sense that white people are told that they are responsible for all the evils in
the world, that racism is permanent, and the only way they can redeem themselves
is by divesting themselves of their whiteness. It involves a shaming of young
white people, if you have white skin you're supposed to have all these white
privileges. I contend that there is black privilege, brown privilege, that it's
really about social class. The sooner we get away from defining everything, even
the police brutality, as racism, the sooner we can bring everyone together as
Americans.
"We are all human beings in God's image. Black Lives Matter and Antifa and
organizations like that will not help us transcend racism and classism and the
isms that they are concerned with. There are things that can be done in the
black community, but the most important thing is helping people realize to how
important their own attitudes are. I would argue that a person's attitudes are
more important than race, gender, social class in determining whether or not
they are going to be successful."
Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that the American system of governance and way of
life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:
"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of
Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands
athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party
leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black
Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is
resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to
comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very
worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes
to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who
brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion
demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire
American project?
"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud
defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the
civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the
ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight
for America itself."
Part II of this series will examine BLM's ideological influences, its activities
and its sources of funding.
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
US Needs to Review its IRF Report on India
Jagdish N. Singh/Gatestone Institute/July 02/2020
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom apparently based
its India report on the versions of evidently hostile non-governmental
organizations and media outlets.
If US President Donald J. Trump is determined to promote religious freedom the
world over, he also needs to call upon other nations vastly more abusive than
India is to "end religious persecution.'"
astonishing to note that the International Religious Freedom (IRF) Report,
released by the US Department of State on June 10, 2020, ranks India on its
lowest grade, "Countries of Particular Concern (CPC)." The report recommends
that the US State Department meet people from India's "religiously persecuted"
communities and slap sanctions on the agencies and officials responsible for the
predicament of the affected.
The report also groups India with countries, such as China, Iran, North Korea,
and Saudi Arabia, which have long been notorious for their religious freedom
rights violations. It says that India's newly passed Citizenship Amendment Act
(CAA) makes the Muslims in the country "bear the indignities and consequences of
potential statelessness." It also claims that the Narendra Modi government
allows "campaigns of harassment and violence" against Muslims and other
religious minorities.
The report suggests that the government-perpetuated discrimination against
religious minorities in India can be discerned in the newly changed status of
the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region, the enactment of the cow-slaughter
and anti-conversion laws, the inflammatory remarks of some Hindu-majority
parties against minority communities, and the Supreme Court's decision in the
Babri mosque case. The report also alleges that in February this year ", three
days of violence erupted in New Delhi with mobs attacking Muslim neighborhoods."
Finally, it adds that innocent members of minority communities "are being
punished under India's cow protection laws" that prohibit the export or import
of beef.
It is hard to believe that the Modi government allows any campaign of harassment
and violence against Muslims and other religious minorities. Ironically,
successive governments in India have generally resorted to a policy of appeasing
minorities in a bid to attract more votes. The Modi government has been no
exception.
The 2019 manifesto of the Modi's party talks of the empowerment and "development
with dignity' of all minorities, including Muslims and Christians." During the
Modi government (2014-19), the representation of minorities in India's employed
by the central government increased from just about 4.9% to 9.8%. The Modi
government's "New 15-Point Programme for the Welfare of Minorities" gives a fair
percentage of the priority sector lending to the minority communities.
The claim made in the report that the Citizenship Amendment Act is anti-Muslim
simply is not true. None of the provisions in this legislation harms Muslim
citizens in India. The legislation just seeks to fast-track citizenship to
refugees from the Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Sikh and Zoroastrian communities
who face religious persecution in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan and who
fled to India. India's Home Minister Amit Shah has clarified that the CAA will
not take away the citizenship of any Muslims.
Clearly, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom
(USCIRF) is to blame for these pitfalls in this report. The Commission authored
this report and submitted it to the US Congress on April 29, 2020. The USCIRF
apparently based its India report on the versions of evidently hostile
non-governmental organizations and media outlets.
Even in doing that, the USCIRF has not been fair. It did not care to note the
plight in India of religious communities other than Muslims and Christians. It
ignored how the Hindus and Sikhs in Kashmir still continue to feel about their
right freely to practice their religions. It ignored how some Christian and
Islamic missionaries have been converting Hindus to Christianity and Islam.
In its depiction of the incidents of violence in New Delhi and other parts of
India, the USCIRF has been one-sided. It reported on the alleged activities of
the disruptive elements in the Hindu community but meanwhile overlooked those of
the disruptive elements in the Muslim community. In a court hearing, India's
Solicitor General Tushar Mehta told Chief Justice of India S A Bobde that both
Hindus and Muslims "indulged in hate speech" against each other during the
February riots. The USCIRF did not care to note that some Hindus alleged that
the Muslims had started the violence. The USCIRF also overlooked reports
suggesting some Muslim leaders had been preparing for riots since January.
One hopes that in view of the glaring lapses in the current USCIRF's India
report, the Trump administration would review it. US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo should not accept the USCIRF's current recommendation to slap sanctions
on India, and he should instead investigate if the USCIRF today is operating in
a truly professional way. If US President Donald J. Trump is determined to
promote religious freedom the world over, he also need to call upon other
nations vastly more abusive than India is to "end religious persecution."
*Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Time for France’s Emmanuel Macron to prove he is a
different kind of president
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 02/2020
When Emmanuel Macron was elected, it seemed he wanted to differentiate himself
from previous French presidents. He was a new breed of presidential candidate
and so he would be a different president too. His movement, En Marche, had
indeed differentiated itself from historical French political formations. This
difference applied not only to his domestic policies, but also to French foreign
policy. He offered a fresh approach to Europe and even more to the Middle East,
where France has enjoyed historically strong and solid relations with the
leading Arab countries.
It was, therefore, a surprise to the region, which was suffering and facing
Iran’s negative interference in its domestic files, to see the French president
take a softer approach toward Arab countries’ security and worries, even lightly
taking the side of Tehran. From Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif’s
surprise invitation to the venue of last year’s G7 summit in Biarritz to the
repeated visits of his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian to Tehran, and with
less communication with leading Arab countries, this all came as a new French
approach to the Middle East.
It is, in principle, an inheritance of former US President Barack Obama’s
vision. In this view, Iran has been isolated and circled for too long and so an
engagement with the country would change its behavior and make the region and
the world safer. Yet, as Obama secured the nuclear deal in 2015 without tackling
other regional concerns, such as Iran’s missile program or its interferences in
its neighbors’ domestic affairs, the Tehran regime was emboldened. It carried
out even more negative interference and pushed for full dominance in key files
such as Iraq and Lebanon, and a bigger involvement in Yemen. Although Obama’s
intentions were good, the nuclear deal failed to make the region safer on the
ground. Instead it promoted instability and Arab countries ended up paying a
heavy price for this mistake. Lebanon and Yemen are now the main, helpless
victims of this Iranian escalation.
However, for Macron, it was not only about proving his difference — there was
also the objective of maximizing French companies’ share of the Iranian business
boom created by the partial lifting of sanctions. And, as President Donald Trump
took the decision to withdraw the US from the nuclear agreement, Macron saw this
as a good way to kill two birds with one stone. First, to continue his
appeasement of Tehran, which would put French companies in a good economic
position. And, second, to present himself as an independent voice from the US
and extend this to other files, such as climate change.
Yet, even faster than Obama, the French president was hit by the realities of
the Middle East. For one, despite all the mediations, he was not able to create
a new nuclear deal to prolong the economic benefits for French companies. This
was mainly due to the refusal of Iran to include key regional issues in the
deal. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime’s repression of protests forced Macron to
shift his position and even cancel a planned trip to Iran.
As much as we want to show good faith and extend our hand to the Iranian regime,
it seems that, unfortunately, it does not want friendly and positive bilateral
relations — it only seeks dominance and blackmail. Arab countries had warned of
this situation, as they would like nothing more than to have good relations with
Iran — and also Turkey for that matter — yet their advice was disregarded and
considered biased. Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have all, sometimes in
coordination with the US, tried several times to launch initiatives to reach
good relations with Iran, but they all failed. Any Arab official will tell you
that, on paper, Iran is a country they all seek to have prosperous and
transparent relations with: It has a rich history, gifted people, and a
potentially large and diversified economy, with many synergies and opportunities
to explore. Yet, when it comes to reality, it becomes impossible. As a clear
example, when Egypt opened its doors to Iranian tourists after the fall of
Saddam Hussein, the first group of visitors was exclusively composed of members
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose primary objective was to
organize groups around Egypt’s historical Fatimid sites.
Macron’s focus on a breakthrough with Iran blinded the French to other important
foreign policy issues. Like Obama, Macron disregarded the Syrian file to appease
Iran and lost ground there. Most importantly, he also did not foresee or react
to Turkey’s growing role in other files such as Libya, where France and Italy
were busy countering each other behind the scenes. France is now waking up to
the risks of instability on the southern Mediterranean coast, as well as the
eastern door to Europe, which Arab countries have long warned of.
It is, therefore, not surprising to see France, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia
on the same side of the Libyan file and Paris going back to its historical and
expected policy in the Middle East. It is not because of the French deep state,
as some analysts described it, but because it is the right policy.
Even faster than Obama, the French president was hit by the realities of the
Middle East. The answer to all these problems is not French; it is European. It
seems that Germany and Italy are also pursuing their own objectives, striking
deals when needed to ensure benefits for themselves. I would go as far as saying
that this is the true risk for Europe, even more than Brexit. Europe was able to
build the world’s second-largest economic zone after the US but, if it does not
unify its political vision — of which foreign policy is an important component —
it risks dissolution. In this aspect, Libya and Turkey’s role in it are only the
tip of the iceberg.
Europe will need to preserve and strengthen the Western alliance while
considering a changing role for the US, which will be less prone to coming to
its rescue in the coming years. This means being able to strike a balance
between US and Russian interests. It is an even more difficult balancing act
than the failed attempt with Iran, yet it could have extremely positive
consequences for Europe and the Middle East. Macron’s upcoming visit to Moscow
will, therefore, be important for Europe and for NATO, and it could determine
whether he is indeed a different breed of president.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also
the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Iran must be held to account for global espionage,
assassinations and terrorism plots
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 02/2020
While it is important to examine what topics Iran’s state-owned Persian news
outlets focus on, it is also critical to analyze what they decide not to cover.
This week, for instance, there was little mention of the Iranian spy who was
recently sentenced by a Danish court to seven years in prison.
The spy, who will be deported from Denmark after serving his jail term and
permanently banned from re-entering the country, was reportedly an accessory to
the attempted murder of one or more opponents of the Iranian regime. The court
stated that he “collected information about an exiled Iranian in Denmark” and
handed the information over to an Iranian intelligence agency, an act that is
illegal under Danish law.
While the intelligence agencies of many nations gather information in other
countries, the Iranian case is different because the regime is actively involved
in using gathered information to assassinate or bomb its targets.
In the Netherlands, for example, Ahmed Mola Nissi, a Dutch citizen of Iranian
origin, was gunned down outside the front door of his home in the Hague in Nov.
2017. The 52-year-old, considered an opponent to the Iranian regime, was a
prominent figure in the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz, an
activist group that fights for the formation of a separate state in Western
Iran.
The Dutch authorities made a public announcement stating that the Iranian
government commissioned the murder. Nissi’s resistance to Iran’s tyrannical
regime made him a target, and his life was ended to further the goals of the
autocratic rulers in Tehran.
He was not the only person targeted in this way. Another political opponent, Ali
Motamed, was killed under similar circumstances in Amsterdam in 2015. The regime
has made it clear that there is a target on the backs of all who oppose it or
stand up for freedom and human rights.
Tehran also seems to use intelligence information gathered by its spies to carry
out terror attacks. For example, European officials foiled a terrorist plot to
bomb a Free Iran convention in Paris in June 2018 that included many
high-profile international speakers, including former US House of
Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani
and former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird.
An Iranian diplomat and several other individuals of Iranian origin were
arrested in France, Belgium and Germany. After a thorough investigation, French
officials concluded that the Iranian regime was behind the bomb plot. Had it
succeeded, the loss of life would have been staggering and the devastating toll
on a community that fights for human rights would have been immeasurable.
Iran’s spies have not only been arrested in the Middle East and Europe but also
in the US. This was not an isolated incident in Europe. In 2018, officials in
Denmark accused Tehran of attempting to assassinate a Danish citizen. Anders
Samuelsen, the foreign minister at the time, emphasized the seriousness of the
plot, saying: “An Iranian intelligence agency has planned an assassination on
Danish soil. This is completely unacceptable. In fact, the gravity of the matter
is difficult to describe. That has been made crystal clear to the Iranian
ambassador in Copenhagen today.”
Also in 2018, after an investigation by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency,
the federal prosecutor’s office ordered police to carry out raids on properties
around the country linked to suspected Iranian spies. It was strongly believed
that those individuals had spied on people and organizations “on behalf of an
intelligence unit associated with Iran.”
Iran’s spies have not only been arrested in the Middle East and Europe but also
in the US. Two Iranians accused of spying for the regime on opposition group the
People’s Mujahedin of Iran were arrested and indicted in the US in Aug. 2018,
for instance.
The US Federal Court charged Ahmadreza Mohammadi Doostdar, 38, in Chicago and,
Majid Ghorbani, 59, in California. According to the Justice Department, the pair
are charged with “knowingly acting as agents of the government of Iran without
prior notification to the attorney general, providing services to Iran in
violation of US sanctions, and conspiracy.”
In addition, an Iranian-born Canadian was arrested in Washington State for
illegally assisting the Iranian regime.
Iranian intelligence minister, and Iran’s chief spy, Mahmoud Alavi made an
astonishing announcement in 2017, when he boasted that Tehran had agents in
Washington promoting the hardline agenda of the ruling mullahs.
It is incumbent on the international community to hold the Iranian regime
accountable for its involvement in assassinations and terror plots in foreign
nations.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Time for France’s Emmanuel Macron to prove he is a
different kind of president
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/July 02/2020
When Emmanuel Macron was elected, it seemed he wanted to differentiate himself
from previous French presidents. He was a new breed of presidential candidate
and so he would be a different president too. His movement, En Marche, had
indeed differentiated itself from historical French political formations. This
difference applied not only to his domestic policies, but also to French foreign
policy. He offered a fresh approach to Europe and even more to the Middle East,
where France has enjoyed historically strong and solid relations with the
leading Arab countries.
It was, therefore, a surprise to the region, which was suffering and facing
Iran’s negative interference in its domestic files, to see the French president
take a softer approach toward Arab countries’ security and worries, even lightly
taking the side of Tehran. From Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif’s
surprise invitation to the venue of last year’s G7 summit in Biarritz to the
repeated visits of his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian to Tehran, and with
less communication with leading Arab countries, this all came as a new French
approach to the Middle East.
It is, in principle, an inheritance of former US President Barack Obama’s
vision. In this view, Iran has been isolated and circled for too long and so an
engagement with the country would change its behavior and make the region and
the world safer. Yet, as Obama secured the nuclear deal in 2015 without tackling
other regional concerns, such as Iran’s missile program or its interferences in
its neighbors’ domestic affairs, the Tehran regime was emboldened. It carried
out even more negative interference and pushed for full dominance in key files
such as Iraq and Lebanon, and a bigger involvement in Yemen. Although Obama’s
intentions were good, the nuclear deal failed to make the region safer on the
ground. Instead it promoted instability and Arab countries ended up paying a
heavy price for this mistake. Lebanon and Yemen are now the main, helpless
victims of this Iranian escalation.
However, for Macron, it was not only about proving his difference — there was
also the objective of maximizing French companies’ share of the Iranian business
boom created by the partial lifting of sanctions. And, as President Donald Trump
took the decision to withdraw the US from the nuclear agreement, Macron saw this
as a good way to kill two birds with one stone. First, to continue his
appeasement of Tehran, which would put French companies in a good economic
position. And, second, to present himself as an independent voice from the US
and extend this to other files, such as climate change.
Yet, even faster than Obama, the French president was hit by the realities of
the Middle East. For one, despite all the mediations, he was not able to create
a new nuclear deal to prolong the economic benefits for French companies. This
was mainly due to the refusal of Iran to include key regional issues in the
deal. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime’s repression of protests forced Macron to
shift his position and even cancel a planned trip to Iran.
As much as we want to show good faith and extend our hand to the Iranian regime,
it seems that, unfortunately, it does not want friendly and positive bilateral
relations — it only seeks dominance and blackmail. Arab countries had warned of
this situation, as they would like nothing more than to have good relations with
Iran — and also Turkey for that matter — yet their advice was disregarded and
considered biased. Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have all, sometimes in
coordination with the US, tried several times to launch initiatives to reach
good relations with Iran, but they all failed. Any Arab official will tell you
that, on paper, Iran is a country they all seek to have prosperous and
transparent relations with: It has a rich history, gifted people, and a
potentially large and diversified economy, with many synergies and opportunities
to explore. Yet, when it comes to reality, it becomes impossible. As a clear
example, when Egypt opened its doors to Iranian tourists after the fall of
Saddam Hussein, the first group of visitors was exclusively composed of members
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose primary objective was to
organize groups around Egypt’s historical Fatimid sites.
Macron’s focus on a breakthrough with Iran blinded the French to other important
foreign policy issues. Like Obama, Macron disregarded the Syrian file to appease
Iran and lost ground there. Most importantly, he also did not foresee or react
to Turkey’s growing role in other files such as Libya, where France and Italy
were busy countering each other behind the scenes. France is now waking up to
the risks of instability on the southern Mediterranean coast, as well as the
eastern door to Europe, which Arab countries have long warned of.
It is, therefore, not surprising to see France, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia
on the same side of the Libyan file and Paris going back to its historical and
expected policy in the Middle East. It is not because of the French deep state,
as some analysts described it, but because it is the right policy.
Even faster than Obama, the French president was hit by the realities of the
Middle East. The answer to all these problems is not French; it is European. It
seems that Germany and Italy are also pursuing their own objectives, striking
deals when needed to ensure benefits for themselves. I would go as far as saying
that this is the true risk for Europe, even more than Brexit. Europe was able to
build the world’s second-largest economic zone after the US but, if it does not
unify its political vision — of which foreign policy is an important component —
it risks dissolution. In this aspect, Libya and Turkey’s role in it are only the
tip of the iceberg.
Europe will need to preserve and strengthen the Western alliance while
considering a changing role for the US, which will be less prone to coming to
its rescue in the coming years. This means being able to strike a balance
between US and Russian interests. It is an even more difficult balancing act
than the failed attempt with Iran, yet it could have extremely positive
consequences for Europe and the Middle East. Macron’s upcoming visit to Moscow
will, therefore, be important for Europe and for NATO, and it could determine
whether he is indeed a different breed of president.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also
the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.