English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese
Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 02/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Then Peter began to speak to them: ‘I truly understand that
God shows no partiality, but in every nation anyone who fears him and does what
is right is acceptable to him
Acts of the Apostles 10/23b/27:34-43/:”So Peter invited them in and gave
them lodging. The next day he got up and went with them, and some of the
believers from Joppa accompanied him. The following day they came to Caesarea.
Cornelius was expecting them and had called together his relatives and close
friends. On Peter’s arrival Cornelius met him, and falling at his feet,
worshipped him. But Peter made him get up, saying, ‘Stand up; I am only a
mortal.’ And as he talked with him, he went in and found that many had
assembled; Then Peter began to speak to them: ‘I truly understand that God shows
no partiality, but in every nation anyone who fears him and does what is right
is acceptable to him. You know the message he sent to the people of Israel,
preaching peace by Jesus Christ he is Lord of all. That message spread
throughout Judea, beginning in Galilee after the baptism that John announced:
how God anointed Jesus of Nazareth with the Holy Spirit and with power; how he
went about doing good and healing all who were oppressed by the devil, for God
was with him. We are witnesses to all that he did both in Judea and in
Jerusalem. They put him to death by hanging him on a tree; but God raised him on
the third day and allowed him to appear, not to all the people but to us who
were chosen by God as witnesses, and who ate and drank with him after he rose
from the dead. He commanded us to preach to the people and to testify that he is
the one ordained by God as judge of the living and the dead. All the prophets
testify about him that everyone who believes in him receives forgiveness of sins
through his name.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 01-02/2020
EU Renews 'Commitment to Lebanon' at
Brussels IV Conference
US Embassy Spokesperson to NNA denies rumors that embassy is calling on
nationals to leave Lebanon
UNIFIL: Foreign Minister Hitti visits UNIFIL and Blue Line
Bukhari tackles current developments with Shamsi
Development and Liberation Bloc: We reject any concession or bargaining over
Lebanon's sovereign rights
MEA announces amendment of conditions regarding Lebanese entry into foreign
countries
The European Union on Tuesday hosted virtually the fourth Brussels Conference on
"Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region", co-chaired with the United
Nations.
Beirut Airport Reopens after Months-Long Hiatus over Pandemic
Protests Renew as Currency Slides, Economy Sags
Report Reveals Plans for More Demos, 'Violence' against Army
Fahmi Ends Nighttime Curfew as 10 Virus Cases Recorded
Plans for More Demos, 'Violence' against Army
Kanaan: State Not Bankrupt, Govt. Figures on Defaulted Loans Inaccurate
Hariri Hails Kanaan, Says MPs' Efforts Contribute to Restoring Financial
Confidence
Lebanon's Plea to Skeptical Expats: Come Visit, Bring Cash
Sami Gemayel Urges Lebanese to Rally Massively and Peacefully
Saudi Ambassador Meets with U.S., UK and UAE Ambassadors
Lebanon's supermarket shelves left empty amid panic buying
Hezbollah’s ‘alternative’ solutions would seal the fate of Lebanon
From Lebanon to Iraq, leaders seem sincere but loyalties shift as opportunities
arise/Hussain Abdul-Hussai/Al Arabiya/01 July/2020
Outrage in Lebanon after video of three men sexually assaulting young Syrian boy
MECHRIC Sounds Alarm on Jihadist-Inspired Destruction of Historic Christian
Symbols in the US
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 01-02/2020
US aim to extend UN arms embargo on Iran ‘not for a short period’ — Pompeo
Secretary Pompeo urges Turkey not to convert Hagia Sophia into mosque
Iran Police Question Four after Deadly Tehran Blast
Iran says ‘no military solution’ for Syria in talks with Russia, Turkey
Iran arrests two Swedish nationals in drug smuggling crackdown
Iran resumes gas exports to Turkey: SHANA
France’s FM Le Drian says new sanctions on Turkey possible
Kremlin: Leaders of Russia, Turkey, Iran to Discuss Syria on Wednesday
Damascus Blasts Syria Donor Conference
Syria Donors Conference Pledges 6.9 Billion Euros
Italy Seizes 14 Tonnes of IS-made Amphetamines from Syria
UK PM Warns Israel against Annexation Plan
Greek FM calls for Turkey to leave Libya in Benghazi meeting
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on July 01-02/2020
Iranian Power Politics and the Day of Reckoning/Charles Elias Chartouni/July
01/2020
Here’s Why China Wants Trump to Win/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June 30/2020
China, US and Reviving the Global Economy/Wang Huiyao/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June
30/2020
It Is Time For All Nations To Support Extension Of Iran Arms Embargo/Richard
Goldberg/Radio Farda//July 01/2020
US International Religious Freedom Efforts Should Not Promote Islamic
Extremism/Brenda Shaffer/Real ClearReligion/July 01/2020
Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate
again/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/July 01/2020
The Regime in Iran Is Struggling. It’s Time for Washington to Exploit Its
Weaknesses/Alireza Nader/FDD/July 01/2020
German intel says Iran ‘massively promotes antisemitism, Israel hatred’/Neo-Nazi
politician met with Iran's chief proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon/Benjamin Weinthal/Jeusalem
Post//July 01/2020
The IMF needs to take a break from forecasting/Mustafa Alrawi/The National/July
01/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on July 01-02/2020
Iranian Power Politics and the Day of
Reckoning/Charles Elias Chartouni/July 01/2020
Here’s Why China Wants Trump to Win/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June
30/2020
China, US and Reviving the Global Economy/Wang Huiyao/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June
30/2020
It Is Time For All Nations To Support Extension Of Iran Arms Embargo/Richard
Goldberg/Radio Farda//July 01/2020
US International Religious Freedom Efforts Should Not Promote Islamic
Extremism/Brenda Shaffer/Real ClearReligion/July 01/2020
Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate
again/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/July 01/2020
The Regime in Iran Is Struggling. It’s Time for Washington to Exploit Its
Weaknesses/Alireza Nader/FDD/July 01/2020
German intel says Iran ‘massively promotes antisemitism, Israel hatred’/Neo-Nazi
politician met with Iran's chief proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon/Benjamin Weinthal/Jeusalem
Post//July 01/2020
The IMF needs to take a break from forecasting/Mustafa Alrawi/The National/July
01/2020
Ministry of Health announces 10 new infections
NNA/July 01/2020
The Ministry of Public Health on Wednesday announced 10 new coronavirus
infection cases, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 1788.
US Embassy Spokesperson to NNA denies rumors that embassy
is calling on nationals to leave Lebanon
NNA/July 01/2020
US Embassy spokesperson in Beirut, Casey Bonfield, on Wednesday denied in a
statement to the National News Agency a number of rumors that have been going
viral on social media platforms claiming that the US embassy in Beirut has
called on its nationals across Lebanese territories to leave the country before
the 19th of July, 2020. The social networking sites have also been spreading
fake news claiming that the United Nations organizations in Lebanon have
informed their international staff to start preparing their travel documents.
UNIFIL: Foreign Minister Hitti visits UNIFIL and Blue Line
NNA/July 01/2020
The Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants of Lebanon, Nassif Hitti, on
Wednesday visited the UNIFIL Headquarters as well the Mission's area of
operations and the Blue Line accompanied by over 30 young Lebanese diplomats, to
see first-hand the work carried out by the Mission in coordination with the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), in stabilizing the situation on the ground for
almost 14 years. UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General
Stefano Del Col welcomed the Minister and his delegation in the UNIFIL
Headquarters, and briefed them on various aspects of the implementation on the
UN Security Council resolution 1701, which forms the core of UNIFIL's mandate.
During his briefing, the UNIFIL head stressed unreservedly on preserving the
sanctity of the Blue Line. He added that UNIFIL presence along the 120-km line
has been an essential element in assisting the parties to reduce potential
frictions, de-escalating situations as well as decreasing tension that could
have jeopardized the cessation of hostilities. Major General Del Col also called
for "sufficient prior notification from both sides of any activity along the
Blue Line and to fully utilize UNIFIL's liaison and coordination mechanism to
mitigate the scope for any apprehensions and misunderstandings." "Our focus is
on maintaining calm and stability along the Blue Line in accordance with
UNIFIL's mandate and the parties' obligations under resolution 1701, and all our
efforts must be directed towards attaining this goal," said the UNIFIL Force
Commander. "I ask for your continued support in this regard."He assured that
despite the COVID-19 crisis, UNIFIL's activities continue at normal levels. The
Minister later carried out an aerial tour of the Blue Line, while another part
of the delegation visited a section of the Blue Line at a UNIFIL Ghanaian
contingent base near the south-western Lebanese village of Ramyah. He remarked
that the visit confirms Lebanon's commitment to international legitimacy,
represented by the United Nations and through the role of UNIFIL, in maintaining
security and stability in southern Lebanon.
"The Government has affirmed Lebanon's commitment to all provisions of UN
Security Council resolution 1701 and to supporting the role of UNIFIL in the
south," said Minister Hitti. Minister Hitti's visit, his first since being
appointed to the post in January, follows that of Prime Minister Hassan Diab to
the UNIFIL Headquarters more than a month ago during which the latter reaffirmed
the importance of the continued coordination and close cooperation between
UNIFIL and the LAF, thereby facilitating the UNIFIL's mission.--UNIFIL
Bukhari tackles current developments with Shamsi
NNA/July 01/2020
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari, on Wednesday welcomed
at his Yarzeh residence, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to Lebanon, Dr.
Hamad Al-Shamsi. Talks reportedly touched on the current developments and an
array of issues of mutual concern, as per a statement by the Saudi Embassy.
Development and Liberation Bloc: We reject any concession
or bargaining over Lebanon's sovereign rights
NNA/July 01/2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday chaired the periodic meeting of the
Development and Liberation Bloc, which was devoted to discussing the latest
developments related to daily living, financial and economic conditions and
legislative affairs, as well as the dangerous repercussions resulting from the
Israeli government's signalling of the start of oil and gas exploration works
adjacent to Lebanon’s exclusive economic zone, in addition to Israeli entity’s
kick-starting the implementation of the annexation of large parts of the West
Bank lands of the occupied Palestine and the Jordan Valley. In a statement
issued by the bloc and read out by MP Anwar El Khalil, the bloc reaffirmed its
principled position rejecting any concession or bargaining over any of Lebanon's
sovereign rights over all its soil, water, and wealth on land and sea, and
defending Lebanon’s rights by all available means.
Over the deteriorating daily living and economic conditions, the terrible
collapse in the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar, as
well as the shortage of commodities and raw materials, such as electricity,
fuel, oil derivatives, food and medicine, the bloc urged the government to
immediately review all the measures it has taken to approach these headlines,
especially those related to protecting the national currency. The bloc stressed
that as the government is concerned with setting reform plans and diagnosing the
causes of the crisis, it is also concerned, alongside all political forces and
parliamentary blocs, to assume full responsibility in terms of taking immediate
and swift measures to rescue Lebanon and prevent slipping towards the abyss of a
total collapse.
MEA announces amendment of conditions regarding Lebanese entry into foreign
countries
NNA/July 01/2020
Lebanon's Middle East Airlines on Wednesday issued a statement announcing a
number of amendments to the conditions pertaining to the entry of Lebanese
nationals into foreign countries:
"In reference to the statement issued by Middle East Airlines -- Air Liban on
June 30, 2020, we would like to note again the need to double check the
conditions of the countries to which they depart from Lebanon and their
responsibility due to the ongoing amendment to the conditions set by the
relevant foreign authorities, and therefore;
- Turkey - Istanbul: As of July 1, 2020, Lebanese can enter Istanbul according
to the procedures applied prior to Covid19 pandemic. It is mandatory to fill the
medical form on board. The passenger is not subject to mandatory quarantine.
- Cyprus - Larnaca: The Cyprus Flight Path form on the link below: "https://cyprusflightpass.gov.cy/"
must be filled out and printed 24 hours prior to the date of travel, and the
traveler must present the printed document at check in counters before passing
the Immigration Department in order to avoid being denied boarding.
If the platform is not available for technical reasons, the traveler must fill
out the required form manually, which can be downloaded via the following link:
"https://cyprusflightpass.gov.cy/en/download-forms"
A PCR test must be performed 72 hours prior to the date of travel and the
passenger must show the result of the check in counter before passing the
Immigration and upon arrival. The traveler is not subject to mandatory
quarantine.
- Greece-Athens: The decision to allow Lebanese holders of Schengen Visa has
been amended; they are no longer allowed to enter Greece until new instructions
are issued. Except for permanent residents.
Consequently MEA flight to Athens will be cancelled on 7 and 14 July 2020 while
those of 4 and 12 July will be operated as per normal schedule.
Entry regulations: Entry is permitted to the following; European citizens,
family members of EU citizens, citizens of Schengen member states and their
family members, third-country citizens who long-term residents or long term visa
holders of an EU or Schengen member state (ONLY TYPE D), third country
government members, diplomats, staff of International Organizations, military
personnel and humanitarian aid, workers in the exercise of their duties,
students, highly specialized personnel, essential to the function of the state.
The online health form must be filled https://travel.gov.gr/#/ at least 48 hours
prior to the date of travel. If approved, QR Code will be sent to the passenger
and must be presented at the airport upon departure and upon arrival.
Medical Health Form:
All passengers arriving in Lebanon must complete the health form required by the
Lebanese Ministry of Public Health online before departure or before check-in at
the following link: https://arcg.is/0GaDnG and if this is not possible, it can
be filled on board to be able to enter Lebanese territory.
The European Union on Tuesday hosted virtually the fourth
Brussels Conference on "Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region",
co-chaired with the United Nations.
Naharnet/July 01/2020
The Conference was the opportunity for the international community to “renew its
economic and financial support for the countries and communities affected by the
Syria crisis, notably Lebanon,” the EU Delegation to Lebanon said in a
statement.
It noted that Lebanon is struggling today with the effects of an unprecedented
financial and economic crisis, the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19
pandemic and the burden of a neighboring crisis that has lasted almost a decade.
“Throughout these years, Lebanese people have shown an overwhelming generosity
and resilience in welcoming over a million Syrian refugees,” the EU statement
said. It added: “Because it is common burden and a shared responsibility, the
European Union has stood by Lebanon, catering for the needs of the refugees,
while supporting the Lebanese communities hosting them. Since 2012, we have
invested more than 2.6 billion Euros to address the basic needs of Lebanese and
refugees, and contribute to improving local infrastructure projects.”“Only
recently, we have stepped up our support to Lebanon in responding to the
COVID-19 emergency by providing personal protective equipment, hygiene kits,
infection prevention trainings, health education and awareness campaigns, and
essential protection services to women and children who have faced violence and
abuse during confinement. Earlier this month, a new package of assistance of
34.6 million Euros was released in key areas such as health, water, social
assistance, sanitation and hygiene,” the statement said. At the ministerial
meeting of the Brussels IV Conference on Tuesday, the international community
commended Lebanon’s extraordinary efforts in hosting the highest number of
refugees per capita in the world. “To respond to the increasing needs of
Lebanese people and Syrian refugees, the European Union stressed its readiness
to engage constructively with a government that is committed to implementing
structural reforms and improving its system of governance,” the EU statement
added. It also stressed that the European Union stands with Lebanon and the
Lebanese people during these “challenging times,” and is committed to its
“unity, sovereignty, stability, political independence and territorial
integrity.”
Beirut Airport Reopens after Months-Long Hiatus over
Pandemic
Naharnet/July 01/2020
Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, closed since mid-March over the
coronavirus outbreak, starts operating Wednesday welcoming around 2,000
passengers a day. The first passenger plane landed at the airport coming from
the United Arab Emirates, said the National News Agency. The airport witnessed a
large influx of media personnel from various Arab and foreign countries to
broadcast the terminal’s reopening after grounding flights over the pandemic.
With Beirut's airport partially reopening from a three-month virus shutdown, the
government is hoping thousands of Lebanese expatriates will return for the
summer. Public Works Minister Michel Najjar, Health Minister Hamad Hassan and
the Airport Manager Fadi el-Hassan inspected the logistical, medical and
security measures taken at the airport. Upon arrival at the airport, passengers
will be tested for the COVID-19 virus, and those who test positive will be asked
to self-quarantine at home.
Protests Renew as Currency Slides, Economy Sags
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 01/2020
Protesters closed the Beirut areas of Qasqas, Corniche el-Mazraa and the
roundabout of Cola on Wednesday amid rising anger as the dollar exchange rate
hit new highs amid an unprecedented economic and monetary crisis driving
Lebanese into poverty. The National News Agency said the security forces tried
to persuade the protesters to open the road, but a large number of citizens came
and joined the sit-in. Army and security forces arrived at the site to appease
the situation, said NNA. Electricity cuts increased in Lebanon and the
government raised the price of bread for the first time in more than a decade on
Tuesday.Reflecting the deteriorating conditions in Lebanon and sharp increase of
food prices, the Lebanese army stopped offering meat in meals given to soldiers
while on duty because the military “is suffering from difficult economic
conditions,” reported NNA.
As prices increased over the past weeks, people have been rushing to
supermarkets and groceries to buy goods. On Tuesday afternoon, Al-Makhazen Coop,
one of the largest retailers in the country closed its stores in Beirut. Economy
Minister Raoul Nehme told reporters after a Cabinet meeting that he will issue
an order Wednesday to increase the price of 900 grams (32 ounces) of bread, a
main staple in Lebanon, by 33% to 2,000 pounds ($25 cents). He urged people not
to stock flour at homes saying there is enough stocks in the country. Owners of
bakeries have been complaining that prices of plastic bags, yeast and diesel
have been rising urging the government to allow them to raise the price. People
had to stand in long lines outside bakeries in recent days amid the rush. Flour
is subsidized in Lebanon and along with medicine and oil products, the central
bank has been funding their imports at the official price of the U.S. dollar
that stands at 1,507 pounds. People were also buying candles as the electricity
that is usually cut three hours a day in Beirut was cut for much of the day on
Tuesday. On the black-market, the dollar moved closer to 9,000 pounds on
Wednesday marking another blow to many Lebanese who have seen their purchase
power crash over the past months.
Report Reveals Plans for More Demos, 'Violence' against
Army
Naharnet/July 01/2020
According to information obtained by a security agency in Lebanon, the upcoming
days are going to observe more demonstrations and violence against the army and
security forces as the economic crisis soars in the country, al-Joumhouria daily
reported on Wednesday. The Higher Defense Council’s discussions a day earlier
focused on worsening economic and livelihood conditions, amid concerns raised by
several security agencies of a rapid security deterioration in light of
difficult living conditions pushing many to the streets, said the daily. ISF
chief, Major General Imad Othman had pointed out that the security forces have
been subject to 85 attacks since the October 17 uprising, 78 of them on vehicles
that were severely damaged and completely disrupted, said the daily. A security
report submitted during the meeting said it expects more demonstrations and
assaults against the army and security forces in the coming days.
Protesters closed several major roads in Beirut and several regions on Tuesday
amid rising anger as the currency hit a new record low on the black market,
electricity cuts increased and the government raised the price of bread for the
first time in more than a decade. As prices increased over the past weeks,
people have been rushing to supermarkets and groceries to buy goods. On Tuesday
afternoon, Al-Makhazen Coop, one of the largest retailers in the country closed
its stores in Beirut. Demonstrators have been using large trucks to block the
roads, which conferees at the HDC said “impedes” the security services work, as
happened in Jiyyeh and Antelias. The Higher Defense Council decided to ban any
blockage of main highways and has directed the security services to address this
matter.
Fahmi Ends Nighttime Curfew as 10 Virus Cases Recorded
Naharnet/July 01/2020
Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi on Wednesday issued a memo lifting a
months-long nighttime curfew and allowing businesses to open beyond midnight. w,
which had been imposed as part of the government’s measures in the face of the
coronavirus pandemic, had obliged businesses such as restaurants, cafes, pubs,
nightclubs and grocery stores to close by midnight. It had initially been
enforced from 7pm till 5am before eventually being relaxed in a gradual
manner.Media reports said the move aims at encouraging tourism with the
reopening of the airport and the visits of some expats to their home country.
The memo, which says “all public and private institutions can operate during the
working hours specified by them,” effectively ends all the measures that
remained from a nationwide lockdown that Lebanon imposed on March 15 to curb the
spread of coronavirus. The Health Ministry meanwhile announced that nine
residents and an expat repatriated from Nigeria tested positive for coronavirus
over the past 24 hours, taking the country’s tally to 1,788 -- among them 34
deaths and 1,223 recoveries. The repatriated expat hails from the southern town
of al-Zrariyeh while the local cases were recorded in Beirut’s Ras al-Nabaa, the
Beirut suburbs of Ain el-Rummaneh, Bourj al-Barajneh, Haret Hreik, Ouzai, al-Mreijeh
and Fanar, and the northern district of Zgharta.
Kanaan: State Not Bankrupt, Govt. Figures on Defaulted
Loans Inaccurate
Naharnet/July 01/2020
MP Ibrahim Kanaan, the head of the Parliamentary Finance and Budget Committee,
announced Wednesday that the Lebanese state is “not bankrupt,” as he disputed
the figures declared by the government on the defaulted loans. “The State cannot
be considered bankrupt as long as its assets and properties are available,”
Kanaan said at a press conference. “It has turned out that there is a difference
of LBP 26 trillion between what the government is presenting and the reality of
the defaulted loans,” the lawmaker added. “There is a wrong strategy, seeing as
the government, the central bank and those concerned locally must talk to each
other before talking to the International Monetary Fund to see what it wants,”
Kanaan lamented. Noting that the parliamentary committee “has not and will not
take sides in the dispute between the government and the central bank,” the
lawmaker also stressed that the committee is not the “Banks Party”. “We have not
discussed their plan, we have rather discussed the government’s plan with them,
is this a crime?” he added.
Hariri Hails Kanaan, Says MPs' Efforts Contribute to
Restoring Financial Confidence
Naharnet/July 01/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Wednesday said he salutes MP
Ibrahim Kanaan despite the “political differences.”“I acknowledge the efforts
that the head of the Finance and Budget Committee Ibrahim Kanaan carried out
along with the fact-finding committee and I salute him over his press
conference,” Hariri tweeted. “This is a first step on the path of restoring
balance to Lebanon’s position in the negotiations (with the International
Monetary Fund), and it contributes to restoring confidence in the presence of a
real intention to preserve our free economic system and safeguard the money of
depositors,” he added. Hariri also said Parliament has the ability to give the
Lebanese hope that the “idiotic speeches, arbitrary plans and manic confusion”
can be “reined in.”In his remarks, Kanaan announced that the Lebanese state is
“not bankrupt,” as he disputed the figures declared by the government on the
defaulted loans.“The State cannot be considered bankrupt as long as its assets
and properties are available,” Kanaan said at a press conference. “It has turned
out that there is a difference of LBP 26 trillion between what the government is
presenting and the reality of the defaulted loans,” the lawmaker added.
Lebanon's Plea to Skeptical Expats: Come Visit, Bring Cash
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
With Beirut's airport partially reopening from a three-month virus shutdown, the
government is hoping thousands of Lebanese expatriates will return for the
summer — and bring dollars desperately needed to prop up the crashing economy.
But Lebanon's far-flung diaspora, renowned as entrepreneurs who for years sent
their cash home, may no longer be willing to do that. Many are staying away,
appalled at the ruling elite's handling of Lebanon's unprecedented economic and
financial meltdown and outraged at local banks holding their dollar deposits
hostage. Some have stopped sending money, except small amounts to sustain their
families. Others are considering cutting ties completely with a corrupt country
they say has robbed them of a future. "If you're a Lebanese considering visiting
this summer, you will think about bringing only what you need to spend while
there, not a single penny more," said Hassan Fadlallah, who has lived since 1997
in Dubai, where he founded a consultancy agency, Brand Lounge. "I doubt anyone
is thinking about investing in the economy, especially when you know the
recipient is not worthy of this help," he said.
Once a beacon of free market growth and fine living, Lebanon is suffering the
worst economic crisis in its modern history. The local currency has lost around
80% of its value against the dollar on the black market since October and
continues to tumble daily. Banks have clamped down on withdrawals and transfers
of U.S. dollars. Food prices have soared, businesses and households have been
thrown into disarray, salaries and savings are fast disappearing and
unemployment has surged.
The crisis stems from decades of systematic corruption and mismanagement. Public
frustration exploded into street protests in October demanding the entire
leadership go. Now, a slide into violence is feared amid mounting poverty and
sectarian tensions.
Still, political leaders appear unwilling to act, instead squabbling and trading
blame. Talks with the International Monetary Fund over a bailout have faltered
over the inability to implement pledges to combat corruption and instill
reforms.
For years, millions of Lebanese abroad helped keep their native land afloat by
sending remittances that once amounted to 12.5% of GDP. Lebanese politicians are
pleading with them to come to the rescue again. Prime Minister Hassan Diab on
Tuesday called on them to "come with dollars." Christian party leader Samir
Geagea suggested each expatriate family abroad to "adopt" a family in Lebanon
for $200 a month to stave off hunger. One lawmaker sparked outrage by saying
Lebanon is now "cheap" in an attempt to attract expatriates and tourists after
the currency collapse.
Visits home are a summer tradition for Lebanon's expats. The airport, closed
since mid-March, starts operating Wednesday at 10% capacity, welcoming around
2,000 passengers a day.
Nabil Bou Moncef, editor in chief of Lebanon's An-Nahar newspaper, said he
expected very limited numbers of Lebanese to visit, and any dollars they bring
will be held onto by relatives like "gold," rather than being injected into the
economy.
"The Lebanese people are being subjected to a systematic and organized theft by
the ruling oligarchy and the banks on daily basis," he said. "No one wants to
contribute to this cycle anymore."
Lebanon, a country of 5 million, takes massive pride in its emigrant community —
including the many successful businessmen and celebrities of Lebanese heritage.
Famous names among them are Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim, Columbian
singer Shakira, Mexican-American actress Salma Hayek, Lebanese-British barrister
Amal Clooney and fashion designers Elie Saab and Reem Accra. They also include
the disgraced former Nissan-Renault boss Carlos Ghosn, who fled Japan to Lebanon
last year. The diaspora is estimated at about three times the population at
home. Large communities are found everywhere, from Australia and Africa to
Canada, Latin America and Europe. About 400,000 Lebanese work in oil-rich Gulf
countries.
Their billions have helped keep the local economy liquid. The Central Bank has
kept the pound stable at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, thanks to heavy
borrowing at high interest rates. That encouraged expats to send money home, buy
property and deposit in local banks.
Now the currency has spiraled to around 9,000 to the dollar on the black market.
Capital controls have locked up dollars in bank accounts, uniting both rich and
poor in anger. Many in the diaspora have been agonizing on social media how to
send money to relatives without going through transfer shops and local banks. "I
am definitely not handing my hard-earned money to our corrupt government on a
silver platter so they can perpetuate their corruption," posted Elie Fares, a
Lebanese doctor based in Philadelphia. In a Twitter thread, he lamented how his
parents who have invested all their lives in Lebanon are now dependent on their
expat son.
"I was on the phone with my parents the other day. My mom hasn't seen me in over
a year, and all she kept saying is, 'Thank God you left, there is no future
here.' It breaks my heart when their voices break."
Many now fear a new wave of emigration by Lebanon's middle class, once the
global pandemic subsides and the world's economy picks up. TV host Ricardo Karam,
who has made a career out of interviewing successful expats, said Lebanon's
talented youth and business elite are prevented from succeeding in their own
country. "Amid this meltdown ... I am saddened by the lack of any vision to
benefit from this elite," he posted. "Instead of steering the ship, the rudder
has been left to those who will enter the dustbin of history." Fadlallah, the
Dubai consultancy CEO, said he is still contemplating whether to make his summer
family visit to Lebanon. He considers himself lucky — he managed to transfer his
savings out of Lebanon in September, right before the crisis began. He says that
after what was effectively a Ponzi scheme, it will take years before people
regain confidence in Lebanese banks and institutions, if at all. "You need
faith, credibility and trust for the country to begin recovering," he said.
"They do not exist."
Sami Gemayel Urges Lebanese to Rally Massively and Peacefully
Naharnet/July 01/2020
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel on Wednesday addressed the Lebanese via his
Facebook page, urging them to mobilize against the growing deterioration. "We
have reached the place we were fearing and nothing will halt the collapse at all
levels. We are in a state of total collapse and we had feared this from the very
first moment. We have fears over electricity, internet and commodities and no
one is taking measures to rescue Lebanon," Gemayel said. He urged solidarity
among all Lebanese, "from the North to the South, Muslims and Christians." "We
should move to squares in a peaceful manner, because the peaceful assembly of
the Lebanese is what will scare them, not violence," Gemayel added. He reminded
that what toppled the previous government was "the determination and unity of
the Lebanese and their heavy numbers in squares." "This is what is needed to
recreate authorities," he added. He accordingly called on the Lebanese to exert
pressure to achieve "the immediate resignation of the government, the
shorterning of parliament's term and the formation of an independent government
that would oversee parliamentary and consequently presidential elections."
Saudi Ambassador Meets with U.S., UK and UAE Ambassadors
Naharnet/July 01/2020
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Wednesday held separate meetings
with the ambassadors of the U.S., the UK and the UAE -- Dorothy Shea, Chris
Rampling and Hamad al-Shamesi. The meetings were held at Bukhari’s residence in
Yarze. A terse statement issued by the Saudi embassy said the talks tackled “the
latest political developments and issues of common interest.”Information
obtained by LBCI TV said “the U.S. ambassador’s visit to the Saudi ambassador is
aimed at unifying stances and coordination.”It also aims to “stress the two
countries’ keenness on Lebanon and its stability and economy, far off from the
claims that say that the sanctions are targeted against the Lebanese economy,”
the unnamed sources said.
Lebanon's supermarket shelves left empty amid panic buying
Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya EnglishWednesday 01 July 2020
Supermarket shelves are left empty in Lebanon as panic buyers rush to purchase
goods while the country’s out-of-control inflation leaves many worried about
buying basic necessities, photos on Twitter showed Wednesday.
Lebanon’s currency, the lira is now trading close to 9,000 to $1 – compared to
its official peg of 1,507. Even bread, a subsidized good, has not been immune to
the lira’s historic inflation, and witnessed a 33 percent increase in price
Tuesday up to 2,000 lira, from 1,500. The currency has lost over 80 percent of
its value, and one close watcher of the Lebanese economy on Twitter hypothesized
that the empty shelves were a result of panic buying as people sought to front
run devaluation. It is unclear just how widespread the empty shelves are, with
scattered reports from around the country, but pictures of empty shelves from
Tripoli in the north to Tyre in the south were seen on social media. In
Lebanon’s capital Beirut, one of Al Arabiya English’s correspondents reported
that similar scenes were found at one local supermarket, but a couple larger
chain stores in Beirut and just to the north were well-stocked.
In May, it was reported that food prices on average had risen by 55 percent in
the country, and now in some severe cases people have begun bartering their
belongings for items, such as milk powder for infants. Another group, the
Consumer Protection Association, says food prices have risen 72 percent, AFP
reported. The country is currently in the grips of an economic crisis that has
not seen such depths since the 15-year civil war that ended in 1990. A severe
dollar shortage sparked the rapid economic downturn late last year.
Lebanon produces nearly nothing locally, and even locally produced goods require
imports for things such as packaging and labeling, and in November of last year
– just a month after nationwide protests kicked off – importers began sounding
the alarm that if they were unable to secure dollars to pay for imports,
shortages of food and medical supplies would soon materialize. The country
imports around 80 percent of its food, which it desperately needs dollars to pay
for.
The government subsidized the purchase of dollars for wheat, fuel, and medicine
shortly after importers sounded the initial warning call. Last week, the
state-run electricity building in Beirut was fortified with extra barriers, and
this week, power shortages have shot up. In Beirut, the government typically
provides 21 hours of power a day, while other areas receive only a few hours.
Costly private generators typically make up the gap, but recently even the
generator providers have shut out the lights in some Beirut neighborhoods,
leaving Lebanese in the dark. The country is currently in talks with the
International Monetary Fund in hopes to secure a bailout package, but
discussions have been rocky, with disputes between the government and the
central bank breaking out over the size of state losses recorded. On Monday, the
director general of Lebanon’s Finance Ministry, a member of the team negotiating
with the IMF, quit his position in protest over the way leaders were handling
the situation. His resignation followed that of Henri Chaoul, who also resigned
from the team negotiating with the international lender, saying he saw no real
will to reform.
Hezbollah’s ‘alternative’ solutions would seal the fate of
Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/July 01/2020
BEIRUT – Lebanon is quickly heading towards collapse as its prospects for
resolving its financial and economic crises fade.
Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are currently stalled in light
of disagreements between the centres of political and financial power in the
country.
Observers say that everyone in Lebanon seems to have accepted that economic
collapse is inevitable.
Today, everyone is preparing for how to deal with the collapse. But some in
Lebanon seem to have found in the crisis an opportunity to advance their
political agenda, even going beyond local affairs to include regional and
international dimensions.
Successive meetings and talks of the ruling elite, most recently a cabinet
meeting in Baabda Palace on Tuesday, are offering mere palliatives for a
systemic crisis threatening Lebanese citizens with hunger as food prices
skyrocket.
The threat is even felt by the Lebanese Army, with its leadership deciding on
Tuesday to stop serving meat in meals to on-duty military officers due to its
unprecedented price rise.
For decades, Lebanon’s fate has been subject to local, regional and
international whims. Worsening the situation is the Iran-backed Hezbollah
movement, which currently controls the political decisions of the country. It
aims to use the deteriorating situation as a launchpad to rebuild and reinforce
its power, without having to deal with criticism or dissent.
Hezbollah believes that Lebanon’s economic downfall and the collapse of its
current dollar-related financial system could pave the way for it to reshape a
“new Lebanon” with an eastern orientation, away from any Western influence.
In more than one public appearance, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah linked
Lebanon’s crisis to other crises ravaging the entire Iranian axis.
But Hezbollah is not simply resorting to rhetoric to advance its agenda, it has
taken dangerous actions as well.
“For the past couple of years we had never been worried about Hezbollah because
we are very very strong unlike any time past, and Hezbollah had not used any of
its powerful files yet,” Nasrallah said last November. “We are only worried
about our country and people, and I assure you that if the country fell into
chaos and it couldn’t pay salaries, we could still do.”
Hezbollah subsequently promoted alternative ways to rescue Lebanon that he
promised would not include bowing to US pressures that mainly target the Shia
group. By heading east, Hezbollah hopes solutions can be found, even if that
means annihilating the major foundations on which modern Lebanon was built. He
seems to believe help from Iran could save Lebanon’s economy.
In his last appearance on June 16, Nasrallah said, “There are friendly countries
like Iran that could sell us gasoline, gas, fuel, oil derivatives and other
energy needs without using the dollar-based payment system.”
“This could oil the economic wheel and raise the value of the Lebanese currency
because it reduces the demand for the dollar and has huge advantages,” he said.
“This is a great opportunity for Lebanon. I tell the people do not to despair as
there are other options, and the people should help us if the Lebanese officials
refuse to do so for fear of Americans’ reaction,” he said.
Nasrallah also revealed that he had “sure information about Chinese companies
preparing to pump money into the country, for high-speed train and rail
projects, as well as for electricity plants.”
Hezbollah’s proposed alternatives are believed to serve only the axis to which
the movement belongs.
Hezbollah wants to make Lebanon a major gateway for Tehran to circumvent its
economic isolation.
Talk of potentially gaining Chinese support is baseless, as Beijing, despite its
obsession with expansion and competition with the United States, knows there are
balances and red lines that it cannot cross. Lebanon is one of those red lines.
On the other hand, Lebanese society is not convinced by such alternatives
because they contradict the nature of the country, and it is not possible to
believe that the United States will allow Hezbollah’s plans to succeed.
That being said, the only way to save Lebanon is for Hezbollah to change its
policies and disarm, Otherwise, everyone, including Hezbollah, will pay a heavy
price.
From Lebanon to Iraq, leaders seem sincere but loyalties
shift as opportunities arise
Hussain Abdul-Hussai/Al Arabiya/01 July/2020
With their fiery speeches, threats and promises, politicians – from Lebanon’s
Hassan Nasrallah and Michel Aoun to Iraq’s Nouri al-Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr –
sound sincere and principled. But a quick survey of their positions proves
otherwise and shows their opportunism and political expediency.
“There are about 11 terrorist organizations in Damascus,” Lebanese President
Aoun, then in exile in Paris, told the Christian Broadcasting Network (CBN),
during his visit to Washington in September 2002. Aoun said that Hezbollah was
one of these terrorist groups and was “under Syrian operational control.” In
September 2003, Aoun visited Washington, again, and met with members of
Congress, reiterating his position that he stood with America’s fight against
terrorism and its spread of democracy. In November 2005, on his third visit,
Aoun told his American audience that Hezbollah’s militia should be disbanded and
the group transformed into a political party. Seventy six days later, Aoun met
with the chief of the very organization that he had characterized as terrorist.
In February 2006, Aoun and Hezbollah's Secretary General Nasrallah unveiled a
memorandum of understanding, resulting in an alliance that, ten years later,
installed Aoun as president.
It did not take Aoun long, after befriending Nasrallah, for him to radically
change his position on Hezbollah. Shortly after the militia’s war with Israel,
in August 2006, Aoun said that “Hezbollah was established in 1982 as a
resistance institution that did not participate in the civil war… and that never
turned its arms, and never will, [on fellow Lebanese] domestically.” In May
2008, the Shia Iran-backed Hezbollah invaded Beirut and Mount Lebanon, in a
punitive campaign against Sunnis and Druze who had supported a cabinet decision
to dismantle the party’s secret telecom network and replace the airport’s
security chief with a Hezbollah appointee.
By entering an alliance with Nasrallah, Aoun was not the only turncoat.
Nasrallah himself started his militia career with Amal, the party of Speaker of
Parliament Nabih Berri. Even though both are Shia, Amal and Hezbollah differ
ideologically, and once diverged over regional alliances. Amal was founded to
carve a place for the Shia in the Lebanese state, and — upon inception — struck
an alliance with late al-Assad, then a rising regional star. Hezbollah, for its
part, was founded on the idea of pan-Shiism, the idea that the Shia of the world
form a political nation under the leadership of the Supreme Leader in Iran,
regardless of national borders.
Al-Assad was unwilling to concede Lebanon’s Shia to Iran, and therefore Amal and
Hezbollah engaged in a bloody war. Al-Assad even had his forces storm
Hezbollah’s headquarters and execute two dozen Hezbollah members in 1987. When
al-Assad engaged in peace talks with Israel on the principle of “land for
peace,” Hezbollah supporters protested in Beirut, and al-Assad instructed his
Lebanese protégés to shoot dead a dozen protesters. Even though they now seem
inseparable, al-Assad and Iran fought over Lebanon, and so did their respective
proxies Amal and Hezbollah.
Before Hezbollah existed, Amal fought the Iraqi Baath militia in Lebanon. Iraq’s
Saddam Hussein positioned himself as an anti-Israel diehard and sponsored late
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, one of al-Assad’s rivals. But as Saddam became
preoccupied with his war with Iran, his militia in Lebanon, mostly Shia,
disintegrated. Lebanon’s Shia Baathists, who lived a secular lifestyle, grew
their beards, carried rosaries, and joined Hezbollah. Whoever pays the piper,
calls the tunes.
Like in Lebanon, Iraqi politicians and militias have pledged allegiance to the
highest bidder. When al-Maliki was Iraq’s prime minister, he enjoyed strong ties
with Washington, which he visited many times, at one time delivering a speech
before a joint session of Congress, an honor reserved for America’s closest
allies. Al-Maliki refused to run for parliamentary elections on a pro-Iran, all-Shia
ticket, and instead formed one of his own, which he called the State of Law
Coalition. He also wanted militias, including those backed by Iran, disarmed and
power consolidated in the hands of the state.
But when al-Maliki lost office, he switched sides and became an ally of Iran.
Al-Maliki accordingly switched his position on militias, and supported their
existence, even those that pledge allegiance to Iran. Long gone were al-Maliki’s
days of the “state of law.”
Maliki’s flip flops pale compared to those of Muqatada al-Sadr, who says one
thing in the morning and its opposite at night, which puts him in competition
with Gaza’s Hamas, a group that was allied with Hezbollah and al-Assad, before
supporting – in battles on the ground – the armed Syrian opposition. Hamas then
went back to being Iran’s trusted friend and ally.
Money does make the world of these mercenaries go round. But when they shop
around for sponsors, these mercenaries look for powers with steady hands. When
America funded Iraqi Sunni militias that helped eject al-Qaeda, these militias
did not realize that Washington was so utilitarian that it threw them under the
bus, and handed them over to their Shia rivals, the minute the “mission was
accomplished.” Mercenaries do change fast, but they also look for sponsors who
play the long game. With Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in power since
1989, his game has so far proven to be the steadiest, but his dried up coffers
might push his protégés to shop around for alternatives.
Outrage in Lebanon after video of three men sexually
assaulting young Syrian boy
Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya EnglishWednesday 01 July 2020
Three Lebanese men sexually assaulted and raped a Syrian child, according to a
video that went viral on social media after one of the men filmed it while
laughing. The video, which was shot in the town of Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley,
showed the trio beating the child and forcing him to engage in sexual acts with
them. The boy’s mother said she did not know about the incident, and when she
asked her son, he said that he was subjected to this several times in the past
two years. “Yesterday, my brother-in-law showed me the tragedy after it spread
online. I couldn’t bare seeing my child suffer,” the boy’s mother told An-Nahar
Lebanese newspaper. When she asked him about what he went through, “he said he
was raped by seven men in the juice shop. They’re all relatives and from the
town of Sohmor.”“Once, one of them held him while the other one raped him,” said
the mother, citing what her son told her. The boy also said that he was
psychologically and physically tortured, in addition to being threatened not to
share what happened with anyone. The mother called on children rights
organizations to take up her son’s case and called on the state to implement
justice and arrest all those involved.
Local media reported that the Syrian boy worked in a juice shop and that his
Lebanese mother, who’s divorced from his Syrian father, owns a vegetable shop.
Pictures allegedly showing the suspects were shared online by social media
activists and users, who called on the Lebanese authorities to bring them to
justice and punish them. In an interview with Lebanese television MTV, the head
of the Union for the Protection of Juveniles in Lebanon, Amira Sukkar, said that
the necessary measures were taken. “We reported the incident to the police and
spoke to the Public Prosecution and began the investigations,” Sukkar said. “The
boy feels some kind of stigma now, he feels like he’s guilty of this crime.” Joe
Maalouf, a representative of the Union also told Syria TV that the Lebanese
judiciary identified the suspects and began an investigation.
MECHRIC Sounds Alarm on Jihadist-Inspired Destruction of Historic Christian
Symbols in the US
منظمة مشرق ترفع الصوت وتحذر من ثقافة الجهاديين الساعية لتدمير الرموز المسيحية
التاريخية في أميركا
EIN Presswire/July 01/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/87795/87795/
The Middle East Christian Committee (MECHRIC) is alarmed at the
wanton destruction of the symbols of Christianity in America and points to the
danger posed by the aggressive actions of the Council on American Islamic
Relations (CAIR), a Muslim Brotherhood front group, which apparently is seeking
the destruction of historical Christian symbols including the statue of Saint
Louis in Missouri.
On June 27, Umar Lee, a self described Salafi Islamist organizer of the
protests, said that the statue “is gonna come down,” as reported byJoel Currier
of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “This guy right here represents hate (…) We’re
trying to create a city where Black lives matter (…) where there is no
Islamophobia … this is not a symbol of our city in 2020.”
Moreover, Moji Siddiqi a member of CAIR seeking to topple St Louis statue said,
“It’s a revolution (…) our number one mission is to take this thing down.”
Saint Louis, a French Saint and King, died in 1270 AD/CE, hundreds of years
before the discovery and settlement of America by the Europeans. He is a
Catholic Saint and revered by a billion Christians worldwide, including
Africans, Middle Eastern and Asians. His symbolism has nothing to do with
America’s history. CAIR’s Ikhwan agenda seems to want to destroy a symbol of
medieval confrontation between Crusaders and the Caliphate. Like the Taliban
totalitarian ideology, this drive to destroy religious symbols of Christians,
moderate Muslims and Jews, is unacceptable and dangerous. This is a call to a
religious conflict made in the midst of a civil rights protest.
American and Mideast American Christians reject CAIR’s fundamentalist agenda and
its abuse and manipulation of the Black Lives Matter protests and call on this
organization to stop their aggression against global Christian symbols. MECHRIC
also calls on American Christians and Muslim moderates to rally around these
revered symbols and protect them peacefully across the nation.
Millions of Catholics and other Christians will not accept this Jihadi agenda
for the eradication of historic religious symbols.
CAIR is a member of the Action Network and the Regional Muslim Action Network,
which organized protests to remove the statue of Saint Louis as well as to
rename name the city itself. Several statues of St. Junipero Serra have been
pulled down and vandalized in San Francisco and other California cities by
radicals.
“CAIR is acting to incite and inflame tensions in America,” said MECHRIC
executive board member John Hajjar. “They are clearly using the Black Lives
Matter movement to advance their own anti-Christian and anti-American agenda.”
“We Christians, who come from the Middle East, know persecution and oppression
in a way most Americans cannot understand,” added Tom Harb, Chairman of the
American Maronite Union. “The fact that CAIR is joining with neo-Bolsheviks to
destroy symbols of American Christian culture is a dangerous development. We do
not want to see Christian persecution come to America, but that is what is
happening before our eyes.”
The neo-Bolshevik far-Leftists and radical Islamists both seek to weaken and
destroy the United States. Christians and moderate Americans from all faiths
must unite to resist their relentless attacks. MECHRIC calls for all Christians
to begin mobilizing to defend our faith symbols from the forces of anarchy,
intolerance, and destruction.
Rebecca Bynum
Middle East Christian Committee
+1 615-775-6801
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on July 01-02/2020
US aim to extend UN arms embargo on Iran ‘not for a short period’ — Pompeo
Arab News/July 01/2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington has the ‘unambiguous right’ to
ensure that this arms embargo stays in place against Iran. Pompeo said the US
aim to extend the UN arms embargo on Tehran is not for a short period of time.
He also said the Iranians continue to undermine what the US is trying to achieve
for peace in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pompeo urged Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan not to convert the Hagia Sophia into a mosque and said Istanbul’s
celebrated former cathedral should remain open to all. “We urge the government
of Turkey to continue to maintain the Hagia Sophia as a museum, as an exemplar
of its commitment to respect the faith traditions and diverse history that
contributed to the Republic of Turkey, and to ensure it remains accessible to
all,” Pompeo said.
Secretary Pompeo urges Turkey not to convert Hagia Sophia
into mosque
AFP, Reuters/Wednesday 01 July 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday urged Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan not to convert the Hagia Sophia into a mosque and said Istanbul’s
celebrated former cathedral should remain open to all.
“We urge the government of Turkey to continue to maintain the Hagia Sophia as a
museum, as an exemplar of its commitment to respect the faith traditions and
diverse history that contributed to the Republic of Turkey, and to ensure it
remains accessible to all,” Pompeo said. On Tuesday, the spiritual head of the
world’s Orthodox Christians warned that converting Istanbul’s sixth century
Hagia Sophia back into a mosque would sow division. “The conversion of Hagia
Sophia into a mosque will disappoint millions of Christians around the world,”
said Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, the spiritual head of some 300 million
Orthodox Christians worldwide. He is based in Istanbul.
Iran Police Question Four after Deadly Tehran Blast
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
Iranian police on Wednesday questioned four people as part of investigations
into a powerful explosion that killed 19 people at a Tehran clinic the night
before, state media reported. The blast at the Sina At'har health centre in the
upmarket northern neighbourhood of Tajrish caused damage to nearby buildings and
sent a plume of thick black smoke into the sky. Fifteen women were among the 19
people who lost their lives in the tragedy. It was the second such incident to
hit Tehran within days, after a gas tank explosion near a military complex east
of the capital late last Thursday that authorities said caused no casualties.
"The police are questioning four people and investigating them," Tehran's deputy
police chief General Hamid Hadavand was quoted as saying by Iribnews, the
website of state television. Among them were the director general and three
other officials from the clinic, which was badly damaged by the blast and a fire
that took two hours to extinguish. Tehran's police chief General Hossein Rahimi
on Wednesday denied the incident could have been the result of "sabotage".
"These are definitely rumours," he was quoted as saying by Fars news agency. The
tragedy was the result of a "fire (that broke out) in this private health
centre," he added. The cause of the incident is still unknown, however. Iran's
President Hassan Rouhani, in a message of condolence to the families of the
victims, called on the authorities concerned to shed light "on the cause of the
accident". Tehran fire brigade spokesman Jalal Maleki said the explosion
occurred when a fire spread to gas canisters stored in the basement of the
clinic. Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi denied rumours circulating on
social media about "the presence of radioactive materials" in the building. "The
Sina At'har clinic was not a nuclear medicine centre" but "a dental and
radiology centre," he said.
Iran says ‘no military solution’ for Syria in talks with Russia, Turkey
AFP/Wednesday 01 July 2020
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said there is “no military solution” for Syria
on Wednesday during a video conference with his Russian and Turkish counterparts
about the war-torn country. “The Islamic republic believes the only solution to
the Syrian crisis is political and not a military solution,” Rouhani said in a
televised opening address. “We continue to support the inter-Syrian dialogue and
underline our determination to fight the terrorism of Daesh (the Arabic acronym
for the ISIS group), al-Qaeda and other related groups.” “I emphasize that the
fight against terrorism will continue until it is completely eradicated in Syria
and the region in general,” he added. Rouhani made the remarks in a video
conference with Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkish counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan. After delivering opening statements, the three presidents are
expected to discuss Syria in private. The talks are the first since September in
the so-called Astana format, in which the three powers discuss developments in
Syria, where the conflict has entered its 10th year. Iran and Russia have been
staunch supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey has called
for his ouster and backed opposition fighters. The conflict has killed more than
380,000 people and displaced millions.
Iran arrests two Swedish nationals in drug smuggling
crackdown
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 01 July 2020
Iran has arrested two Swedish nationals following the dismantlement of a drug
smuggling gang, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. “An
international drug smuggling gang has recently been discovered and dismantled in
a complex operation,” Tasnim reported on Wednesday. “A number of key members of
the gang have been arrested in the operation, including two Swedish nationals,”
added Tasnim. Tasnim did not say in which part of Iran the operation took place.
The drug shipments discovered were “dangerous industrial narcotics,” the agency
said. Iranian authorities are investigating the gang’s potential links to other
international drug cartels, said Tasnim.
Iran resumes gas exports to Turkey: SHANA
Reuters/Wednesday 01 July 2020
Iran's gas exports to Turkey, which had been stopped since March 31 because of
explosions on parts of the pipeline inside Turkey, resumed on Wednesday, SHANA,
the news site of the Iranian oil ministry, reported. An official at the National
Iranian Gas Company said in March that the PKK, or Kurdistan Worker's Party, was
likely responsible for the attack on the pipeline. The pipeline, which carries
around 10 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas to Turkey annually, frequently
came under attack by Kurdish militants during the 1990s and up until 2013, when
a ceasefire was established.
France’s FM Le Drian says new sanctions on Turkey possible
Reuters/Wednesday 01 July 2020
France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that European Union foreign
ministers would meet on July 13 to discuss Turkey and said new sanctions on
Ankara could be considered. “At our request there will be a meeting of EU
foreign ministers on July 13 solely on the Turkish question,” Jean-Yves Le Drian
told a parliamentary hearing. “Sanctions have already been taken on Turkey by
the EU over Turkey’s drilling in the Cyprus economic zone. Other sanctions may
be envisaged.” Earlier on Wednesday, France said it is suspending its
involvement in a NATO naval operation off Libya’s coast after a standoff with a
Turkish ship and amid growing tensions within the military alliance over Libya.
France’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that France sent a letter Tuesday to
NATO saying it is suspending its participation in Sea Guardian “temporarily.”
France has accused Turkey of repeated violations of the UN arms embargo on
conflict-torn Libya and branded the Turkish government in Ankara as an obstacle
to securing a cease-fire in the North African nation, which Turkey firmly
denies. France is also calling for crisis mechanism to prevent a repeat of an
incident earlier this month between Turkish warships and a French naval vessel
in the Mediterranean. NATO is investigating what happened.
Kremlin: Leaders of Russia, Turkey, Iran to Discuss Syria on Wednesday
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 June, 2020 - 10:15
The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey will hold a video conference on
Wednesday to discuss the conflict in Syria, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
In Syria's nine-year war, Russia and Iran are the main foreign supporters of
president Bashar Assad's regime, while Turkey backs opposition fighters. Under a
diplomatic process dating back to 2017, they agreed to work to de-escalate
fighting.
Wednesday's talks between Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani and Recep Tayyip
Erdogan were scheduled for around 1100 GMT, the Kremlin said.
After an escalation of violence displaced nearly a million people, Turkey and
Russia agreed in March to halt hostilities in northwest Syria's Idlib region.
This month military jets bombed villages in the opposition-held area.
Two weeks ago, Russia and Turkey postponed bilateral ministerial-level talks
which were expected to focus on Syria and Libya, another country where they
support opposing sides.
Damascus Blasts Syria Donor Conference
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
Damascus condemned Wednesday an international donor conference that raised $7.7
billion to address the country's humanitarian challenges, calling it an
interference in Syria's domestic affairs."The Brussels IV conference on Syria
and the statements issued by its participants make it clear that the United
States and the European Union... are continuing their hostile policies towards
Syria," said a foreign ministry statement published by the official SANA news
agency. "Syria denounces such conferences, which are considered a blatant
interference in Syria's internal affairs," it added. The Brussels IV conference,
hosted by the European Union and United Nations on Tuesday, saw international
donors pledge $7.7 billion to assist war-affected people inside and outside the
country. The Syrian government was not invited to the conference, nor were any
opposition representatives. The country's war has killed more than 380,000
people and displaced nearly half of the pre-war population since it started in
2011. The future of the Syrian people "is still held hostage and Europe cannot
and will not look away," said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. The
previous donors' conference for Syria in 2019 had raised nearly $7 billion in
pledges.
The latest commitments came as a fresh wave of US sanctions against Syria took
hold in June, exposing anyone doing business with President Bashar al-Assad's
government to travel restrictions and financial sanctions. The latest
designations targeted 39 people or entities, including Assad and his wife Asma.
A spate of sanctions against Syria by the US and the EU since 2011 have
compounded a major economic downturn that has seen the value of the Syrian pound
plunge to record lows against the dollar on the black market. The nosediving
currency has sent prices soaring in a country where the UN says nine out of 10
people now live in poverty. Wednesday's foreign ministry statement said Western
powers "that impose successive sanctions impacting the life of citizens and
their livelihoods... cannot claim in any way possible that they are seeking to
benefit the Syrian people."
Syria Donors Conference Pledges 6.9 Billion Euros
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
International donors pledged 6.9 billion euros ($7.7 billion) to face the
ongoing humanitarian challenges of the nine-year Syrian crisis, the EU announced
on Tuesday. The pledges were made at the Brussels IV conference hosted by the
European Union and United Nations to assist war-affected people inside and
outside Syria.Against the "sobering background" of the coronavirus pandemic, "we
must be all the more pleased with the overall pledge of support," EU
Commissioner for crisis management Janez Lenarcic told reporters.
Italy Seizes 14 Tonnes of IS-made Amphetamines from Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
Italian police said Wednesday they have seized a world record 14-tonne haul of
amphetamines made by the Islamic State group in Syria.The drug, in the form of
84 million tablets, was worth about one billion euros, police said in a
statement, describing the operation as "the biggest seizure of amphetamines in
the world".
UK PM Warns Israel against Annexation Plan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 01/2020
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Israel Wednesday against going ahead
with plans to annex parts of the West Bank, calling them illegal and against the
Jewish state's own interests. "I am a passionate defender of Israel," he wrote
in an article published in Hebrew on the front page of Israel's top-selling
daily, Yediot Aharonot. "So it is with sadness that I have followed the
proposals to annex Palestinian territory," he added. "I am fearful that these
proposals will fail in their objective of securing Israel's borders and will be
contrary to Israel's own long-term interests."
Israel's coalition government has agreed July 1 as the date from which it can
begin implementing US President Donald Trump's Middle East peace proposal, which
paves the way for annexations of Jewish West Bank settlements and potentially
the Jordan Valley. "Annexation would represent a violation of international
law," Johnson wrote, adding that it would also jeopardise "the progress that
Israel has made in improving relationships with the Arab and Muslim world. "I
still believe the only way to achieve true, lasting security for Israel, the
homeland for the Jewish people, is through a solution that allows justice and
security for both Israelis and Palestinians," Johnson wrote. "I refuse to
believe that this is impossible."Last month, in a rare op-ed in an Israeli
newspaper, the Emirati ambassador to Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba, warned that
annexation of parts of the West Bank would jeopardise any warming of
Arab-Israeli ties. Describing it as the "illegal seizure of Palestinian land",
Otaiba said "plans for annexation and talk of normalisation are a
contradiction".
Greek FM calls for Turkey to leave Libya in Benghazi
meeting
Tommy Hilton/Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 01 July 2020
All foreign powers, especially Turkey, should leave Libya, said Greece's Foreign
Minister Nikos Dendias in a meeting with Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Issa
Saleh on Wednesday. Dendias was in the country to meet with Saleh, who is the
head of the Eastern-based Libyan parliament.
The parliament supports the Libyan National Army (LNA) in its conflict with the
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which is backed by Turkey.
Turkey has sent thousands of Syrian mercenaries to the country and helped the
GNA lift the siege of Tripoli, putting the LNA-controlled city of Sirte under
threat. The GNA and Turkey have signed a controversial maritime agreement that
gives Ankara drilling rights over vast swathes of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and the EU have all condemned the deal.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on July 01-02/2020
Iranian Power Politics and the Day of
Reckoning
Charles Elias Chartouni/July 01/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني//سياسة القوة الإيرانية ويوم الحساب
The explosion at the Parchin military complex, near Teheran, is far from being
an accidental breakdown in what turned out to be an experimental site for
missile production. This explosion betrays the structural flaws of a
dysfunctional governance, and the gradual unraveling of Iranian national
security. The repeated accidents in the last few months ( downfall of the
Ukrainian airliner, the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, the smuggling of
nuclear archives, and the Parchin explosion ...) are quite indicative of
systemic failures and the pervasive inconsistencies of the overall governance.
The Iranian expansionist drive is a corollary to the bolting inadequacies
marring the Iranian system, and a testimony to its inability to address the
backlogs of a deadlocked society and extract itself from the ideological
confinement, the choking hold of power elites ( the clerisocracy and the
Pasdaran ), their vested interests and unwillingness to engage the rest of the
world community, and put an end to the self defeating incompatibility between
international normalization, domestic liberalization and reforms.
The defensive posture displayed by the regime is no hazard, at a time when
breakdowns are evolving exponentially and demonstrating the ineptitude of a
political system living off its repressive policy, losing steadily its
credibility and shorn of its conventional religious legitimacy. Contradictions
develop at a pace that undermines its ideological credentials, strategic
warrants and operational legitimacy. This political trail, far from subsiding,
continues its course and so is its containment, and this has nothing to do with
the actual sanction policy devised by the current US administration and the
imponderables of the incoming elections. Checkmating the Islamic regime power
drive is a strategic imperative to stabilize Middle Eastern geopolitics, stem
the tide of islamism on both sides, promote the bolting liberalization agenda
within Iran, put an end to the widening strategic voids and engage State
reconstruction in the region. The Islamic regime in Iran, has either of two
ways, normalize its international status, engage symmetrically the world
community and liberal reforms, or deal with an enduring containment policy, and
this has nothing to do with Trump’s re-election or defeat.
Here’s Why China Wants Trump to Win
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June 30/2020
Why would the government of China — a country that President Donald Trump has
hit with tariffs and sanctions, blamed for the coronavirus pandemic, and labeled
as the greatest threat to American security — reportedly be rooting for Trump’s
re-election in 2020?
Perhaps because Chinese officials realize what former National Security Adviser
John Bolton’s recent tell-all book underscores: The damage Trump is doing to US
power and the global democratic community outweighs any harm he is doing to
Beijing. Another four years of Trump will magnify that damage, so the 2020
election is taking on historic importance in determining the shape of the modern
world.
American presidential elections always matter, but elections that fundamentally
shift the trajectory of global affairs are relatively rare. The 1860 election
was, of course, one such episode: Abraham Lincoln’s victory brought on the Civil
War while also empowering a leader who was singularly well equipped to win it.
That victory, in turn, ensured that a united, democratic America entered the
20th century as a world power.
The 1940 election was another hinge in history: In securing a third term,
Franklin Roosevelt also secured, sooner or later, America’s entry into World War
II. The 1980 election perhaps qualifies as a third: Had Ronald Reagan not become
president, the Cold War might not have ended as quickly or decisively as it did.
The 2020 election is likely to loom large in future histories of global order in
the 21st century.
In November, the world is likely to find itself in a more precarious position
than at any time since the late 1940s. A lethal second wave (or extended first
wave) of Covid-19 might well be underway, causing hundreds of thousands of
additional deaths and again putting economies and societies under excruciating
pressure. The US will be further into its spiraling competition with China,
which has used the chaos created by the coronavirus to ramp up aggression toward
its neighbors and the West.
It’s reminiscent of the fragile period just after World War II, when nature (in
the form of a terribly harsh European winter) and geopolitics (in the form of an
expansionist Soviet Union) combined to put the world’s hopes for stability,
prosperity, and peace in serious danger.
Add to this today the disarray within America’s alliances and the democratic
world. Not since the Iraq War have political relations between the US and its
key European allies been nearly so toxic. In the Asia-Pacific, alliances with
South Korea and the Philippines have been fraying. The international trade
system is faltering under the quiet but effective assault of the Trump
administration against the World Trade Organization; institutions such as the
G-7 are rudderless. Even when the democratic world can agree on the challenges
it faces, such as avoiding technological dependence on China, meaningful
responses have been painfully slow to materialize.
A second Trump presidency will not just make all of these problems worse, it
could entrench them in ways that will be terribly difficult to undo.
Trump’s administration has shown virtually no capacity for effective management
of Covid-19 within America’s borders, let alone for the global leadership
Washington has typically exercised in crises of this magnitude. Trump can take
credit for changing the national conversation about China more sharply than any
president since Richard Nixon — who moved the relationship from containment to
engagement, whereas Trump has now done the opposite. But what Beijing seems to
realize is that there is little hope for the US to maintain an effective China
strategy so long as he is in charge.
There are two reasons for this. The first is that strategy for a long-term
competition with China demands a degree of discipline and steadiness that Trump
is manifestly incapable of providing. The second is that another Trump term is
sure to further divide and demoralize the coalition of states that will be
required to meet this and other dangers to the international order.
Four more years of Trump will place additional pressure on fragile alliances
that he has already shown a talent for undermining. Those alliances may not
collapse outright, but they will be further hollowed out from within. A second
term will also prevent the formation of a united economic front against China:
Trump will presumably continue his omnidirectional approach to trade disputes,
as the continued erosion of the WTO makes it harder for other nations to hold
China to account for its unfair practices.
Meanwhile, Trump will continue to empower the forces of illiberalism within NATO
and other US alliances — a development Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin can only
approve of — while pitting “good” allies like Poland against “bad” allies like
Germany. And if Bolton’s book is any guide, the US will find it difficult to
wage a principled campaign against an aggressive dictatorship as long as its
president professes admiration for the system of internment camps China has
erected in Xinjiang and looks to Xi for help against his Democratic rivals.
Yes, Trump’s policies are imposing costs on Beijing. But they are also exacting
a heavy price — in lost time, weakened unity, needless chaos — on the world
Beijing confronts.
In this regard, the most damaging aspect of a second term would be the signal it
sends to the world. Every democracy is entitled to a certain amount of electoral
lunacy, and most US allies can bring themselves to write off a single Trump term
as an aberration. But if Trump is re-elected, then the conclusion must be that
America has made a strategic choice — not to relinquish the privileges that come
with great power, but to relinquish the responsibility for competent leadership.
The US will be telling its closest friends that this — the diplomatic pettiness,
the exhausting outrages, the endless policy upheaval — is the best they can
expect.
We can’t be certain what a Joe Biden presidency would bring, of course. A new
administration would face all the same structural challenges that the current
one confronts. But the reason the 2020 election is likely to prove so
consequential is that we already know what is on offer from the Trump
administration.
“There is a great deal of ruin in a nation,” Adam Smith observed in response to
a forecast of Britain’s decline — and perhaps in a great nation’s foreign
policy, as well. But there isn’t an infinite amount of ruin that a superpower
can inflict on itself and the world it built before the consequences start to
become very real, indeed.
**Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Henry A.
Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University's School of
Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic
and Budgetary Assessments. His latest book is "American Grand Strategy in the
Age of Trump."
China, US and Reviving the Global Economy
Wang Huiyao/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/June 30/2020
The Covid-19 pandemic is intensifying the most destructive trends in global
trade. Support for free trade has given way to talk of decoupling and
de-globalization. Tensions between the US and China are rising, as are calls for
protectionism and re-shoring of far-flung supply chains. It is no longer seen as
desirable, or even possible, to integrate countries that possess different
economic systems or ideologies.
Reversing these trends will require dramatic action. One decision could make a
real difference — for China to join the grand Pacific trade agreement the US led
and then abandoned.
Eighteen months ago, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership
— heir to the more concisely named TPP — came into effect. Billed as a
“next-generation” trade agreement for its high-standards and focus on emerging
sectors, the pact covers 11 nations, nearly 500 million people and more than $13
trillion of GDP.
The agreement is notable for accommodating very different economies and
political systems. Its members include industrialized Western democracies such
as Canada and Australia, emerging markets in Latin America and Asia, and the
socialist state of Vietnam.
At a time of unprecedented challenges to global trade, the CPTPP’s deep,
interlocking commitments offer a way to boost growth and reduce uncertainty.
Several countries have shown interest in joining. Thailand has set up a
committee to decide whether to seek membership. The UK is soon to launch
bilateral trade negotiations with Japan, which Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s
government sees as a stepping stone to joining CPTPP.
At the end of May, even Chinese Premier Li Keqiang suggested that China might
join the CPTPP. The idea is gaining traction in Chinese policymaking circles.
There are two obvious stumbling blocks to Chinese membership. First, China’s
economic system doesn’t yet meet the standards for membership. Rules on
subsidies for state-owned enterprises and restrictions on cross-border data
transfers, for instance, still need to be upgraded.
Yet, domestic reforms and the “phase one” trade deal with the US are beginning
to close this gap. Over the past three years, efforts to improve the environment
for foreign investment have accelerated. These include a new Foreign Investment
Law, market opening in financial services and manufacturing, and stronger
intellectual-property protections.
More such reforms can be expected. The Chinese government recently pledged to
shrink the negative list of sectors closed off to foreign investment even
further and to dismantle informal barriers to such investment. On June 2, a new
plan was published to build Asia’s largest free-trade port on the island of
Hainan, which will serve as a testbed for deeper liberalization. This follows
the release of a sweeping new economic blueprint for broad pro-market measures
and reform of state-owned enterprises.
Of course, these words need to be translated into action. But the other CPTPP
nations can obviously judge China’s record before allowing it to join.
More problematic may be the pact’s origins. At least some of its American
authors clearly saw the agreement as a means of binding the US closer to Pacific
economies and weaning them away from China.
With the US pullout, however, such considerations have been muted. Most current
members appear open to the idea of including China. Beijing’s warming ties with
Tokyo are also a promising sign, as Japan is a driving force in CPTPP as well as
a close ally of the US.
American officials might still oppose Chinese membership, of course. But they
should consider this: CPTPP rules would incentivize China to make many of the
structural reforms that US officials have been demanding, such as subjecting
state-owned companies to market discipline and improving intellectual-property
protections. Accession would boost economic reformers within China, who can
argue that the changes demanded by the pact align with national development
objectives — from innovation and efficiency to environmental protection.
Having China in CPTPP would benefit members and the wider global economy. It
would add the huge consumer market that was lost when the US pulled out. With
China, CPTPP would cover over 28% of global GDP. That would more than quadruple
worldwide gains from CPTPP to $632 billion, according to projections by the
Peterson Institute for International Economics. Chinese membership would also
bring more of the regional economy under a formalized set of rules driven by
multilateral consensus, supporting growth and stability.
For China, the benefits should be equally obvious. Accession would give Chinese
companies greater access to a vast, dynamic market. In particular, CPTPP would
help Chinese technology firms “go global,” given its emphasis on services and
e-commerce.
Joining would also bolster China’s role at the heart of Asia at a time when the
region’s economic landscape is shifting. Supply chains are being restructured as
companies and governments seek to diversify production. This process will unfold
more favorably for China if it is part of CPTPP, since moving components between
China and other member states will become cheaper and more stable. Membership
would give Beijing greater say in shaping future trade rules and show the
nation’s commitment to free trade and integration.
In the long-term, an enlarged CPTPP could provide a blueprint for reforming the
World Trade Organization and getting the global free-trade agenda back on track.
It Is Time For All Nations To Support Extension Of Iran
Arms Embargo
Richard Goldberg/Radio Farda//July 01/2020
Radio Farda is publishing a series of expert analysis and commentaries on the
United States move to extend the UN arms embargo on Iran beyond October 2020.
In May 2018, when the world learned that Iran had concealed a secret nuclear
weapons archive before, during and after negotiations over the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), supporters of the nuclear deal were quick
to excuse Iran’s nuclear prevarication.
Two years later, with Iran in full breach of its JCPOA commitments, mounting
evidence of undeclared nuclear material and sites inside the country, and the UN
conventional arms embargo on Iran set to expire in October, it’s time for the
United States and Europe to join together in restoring all of the sanctions and
restrictions it once put in place to prevent the world’s leading state sponsor
of terrorism from acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons.
It Is Time For All Nations To Support Extension Of Iran Arms Embargo The Iran
Deal was premised on Iran’s full disclosure of past nuclear weapons-related
activities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a pledge never to
pursue such weapons in the future, and a temporary limit on certain nuclear
activities. In exchange, Iran received several strategic benefits, including the
end of key international restrictions and embargoes over time.
Last week, the IAEA reported that Iran may be concealing undeclared nuclear
material inside the country and is denying the agency’s inspectors access to two
undeclared sites possibly connected to Iran’s work on nuclear weapons – a
potential breach of Iran’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In addition, the IAEA reported that Iran is
violating nearly every other nuclear commitment it made in the JCPOA – vastly
expanding its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium and heavy water, restarting
enrichment at an illicit underground facility and testing advanced centrifuges.
If the discovery of Iran’s nuclear archive was the smoke, last week’s IAEA
reports are the fire. No longer can responsible nations turn a blind eye to
Iran’s nuclear misconduct – let alone enable this violent regime to acquire
advanced conventional weapons from Russia and China once the UN arms embargo
expires. Fortunately, the UN Security Council Resolution that endorsed the JCPOA
includes a snapback mechanism to restore all pre-nuclear deal sanctions and
restrictions in response to Iran’s significant non-performance of its nuclear
commitments. The Resolution explicitly provides the United States, the United
Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China – among the original “JCPOA
participant States” – with the right to exercise the snapback until 2025.
Russia and China, looking to sell fighter jets, tanks, naval platforms and other
arms to Iran starting in October, will almost certainly oppose a snapback. They
will argue that since America withdrew from the JCPOA, it forfeited its right to
snapback. Islamic Republic sympathizers in Europe may even concur.
But unfortunately for Russia and China, they voted for a binding Security
Council Resolution that explicitly grants the US a right to snapback independent
of its participation in the JCPOA political agreement. Moreover, the snapback
process cannot be blocked – it is not subject to the veto of any permanent
Security Council member. While America can and will do this alone, it shouldn’t
have to. Now is the time for all nations that support the NPT and oppose
flooding Iran with Russian and Chinese arms to stand and be counted.
Richard Goldberg/Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for
the White House National Security Council (from 2019 to 2020)
US International Religious Freedom Efforts Should Not Promote Islamic Extremism
Brenda Shaffer/Real ClearReligion/July 01/2020
The Trump Administration has elevated the promotion of international religious
freedom to a major component of U.S. foreign policy. President Donald Trump
issued an executive order devoting additional resources to this topic and the
Administration’s National Security Strategy includes upholding international
religious freedom. Unfortunately, when lofty ideas are translated into
government policies, they can sometimes prove ineffective or even damaging.
This downside is especially clear in U.S. policies toward promotion of religious
freedom in many Muslim-majority countries, such as in Central Asia and the
Caucasus. In its policies toward Muslim-majority states, the U.S. Commission for
International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) and the U.S. Department of State
advocate for allowance of greater activity of Islamic extremists, many backed by
Iran, as part of their promotion of religious freedom. A change in U.S.
approaches to international religious freedom, especially in Muslim-populated
states, is necessary before Washington dedicates additional resources to the
issue. The U.S. government promotes international religious freedom primarily
via three agencies: USCIRF, the State Department’s International Religious
Freedom Office led by the State’s Ambassador-at-Large for International
Religious Freedom, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Both the USCIRF and the State Department produce annual reports on the state of
religious freedom around the globe, categorizing the level of religious freedom
in various states. The two reports are published within months of each other and
basically mimic one another. Both single out countries which have engaged in or
tolerated “particularly severe violations of religious freedom,” and which can
be designated “countries of particular concern” similar to such U.S.
designations for human trafficking and money-laundering. If designated, various
U.S. foreign policy instruments can be applied to attempt to change the
violator’s behavior, including U.S. sanctions. Thus, these reports are not just
academic exercises, but can have consequences.
While these reports bear the imprimatur of U.S. government publications, the
agencies that compile them base a large portion of their reporting on unverified
information from various activists, non-governmental organizations, and media.
USCIRF and the relevant State Department offices have very small staffs that, as
the USCIRF itself acknowledges, clearly cannot independently research the state
of religious freedom in every country around the world. For example, the
chapters on the Muslim-majority republics of Central Asia and Azerbaijan are
sourced largely to a very small NGO called Forum 18. Based in Norway but
registered for tax purposes in Denmark, it refers to itself as a “Christian
initiative.” Still, the U.S. government publications extensively rely on this
group’s reporting. Furthermore, the government reports frequently accept at face
value reports by activist media groups, such as the Akhbor website in Tajikistan
or the Azerbaijani language Meydan TV, and uncritically repeat claims made by
self-appointed “human rights defenders.”
Following this lead, the USCIRF and State Department condemn Muslim-majority
countries that attempt to combat Islamic extremist and terrorist movements and
to counter Iran’s attempts to build influence in neighboring countries. The
USCIRF and State Department recent chapters on Azerbaijan, for instance, refer
to that country’s actions to combat the Muslim Unity Movement as “repression
against believers” and lists jailed combatants as “religious prisoners.” But the
movement, which receives Iranian backing and training, has been credibly linked
to violence, including the deaths of two policemen; the Iranian regime hosts
regular television broadcasts in Qom by a member of the Movement who escaped to
Iran and regularly agitates against the West and its secular culture. Is this
the type of movement for which American taxpayers should advocate?
The reports likewise criticize Muslim-majority states that do not allow
foreign-trained clerics to work in mosques in their countries, oblivious to the
intention of these laws, which is to prevent the spread of Iranian and other
Middle Eastern extremist networks. Similarly, the reports savage countries like
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, advocating for their inclusion in a special watch
list because they mandate government review of imported religious literature.
While such measures may smack of government censorship to Americans, they are
some of the most important instruments these countries have to stop the spread
of extremist ideology. Should the U.S. government really advocate for the full
and uninhibited spread of ISIS and Iranian propaganda across Central Asia?
In working to promote international religious freedom, Washington may consider
several guidelines. First, focus on the most important cases, such as China and
Iran, where religious minorities are killed and imprisoned for their beliefs.
For these extraordinary cases and for accuracy in reporting, it would be more
useful for the annual reports not to attempt to cover, each year, every country
in the world, but to focus on the most extreme violations.
Next, U.S. government publications should only report independently verified
information. Reports from embassies abroad should also be verified by the
embassies and not just rely on activists’ claims.
Furthermore, while the U.S. government should point out where restrictions on
religion are extreme, it should also understand that a part of freedom of
religion is the freedom from religion. The right to live a secular lifestyle–for
example to not be forced to wear religious dress and follow religious
commands–are all part of the freedom of religion. Many secular governments,
especially in Muslim-majority countries, walk a fine line in their efforts to
protect their societies, especially women and minorities, from religious
extremists. At times, they need to limit extremists and their ties to foreign
states like Iran in order to preserve the rights of the non-observant.
Washington should recognize the importance of these policies as part of
preserving freedom and for their contribution to broader U.S. interests.
*Dr. Brenda Shaffer is a research associate at Georgetown University, and a
Senior Advisor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank in
Washington, DC.
*Dr. Svante Cornell is Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at the
American Foreign Policy Council, and co-founder of the Institute for Security
and Development Policy in Stockholm. Both focus on research on Central Asia, the
Caucasus, Turkey and Iran.
Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate again
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/July 01/2020
If I use the term “restrainer” what does that call to mind? A device that keeps
an infant safe in the back seat of an automobile? Something Nurse Ratchet used
to subdue unruly patients?
No, what I’m referring to today are those eager to see the United States pass on
the hot and heavy torch of global leadership. That’s what a war-weary and
no-longer-so-great Britain did following World War II. A question that should
arise: To whom would Americans pass it? Sweden’s leaders are good enough but not
strong enough. China’s rulers are strong enough but not good enough.
Restrainers also endlessly call for “ending endless wars.” George Orwell’s
pungent observation is apt: “The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.”
What’s to stop us from simply declaring victory and walking away? Nothing. But
fooling oneself is easy. Fooling one’s enemies — tougher.
he editors of the journal Foreign Affairs turned over their March/April issue to
the restrainers, noting: “Feeling down these days, the United States is
questioning the global role it once embraced. The empire that Washington
absent-mindedly acquired during flusher times now seems to cost more than it’s
worth, and many want to shed the burden.”
To their credit, the editors give space to a contrasting view in the July/August
edition. The essay by Lt. Gen. (Ret.) H.R. McMaster (former National Security
Adviser, current Hoover Institution senior fellow, and chairman of the board of
advisers at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power) is worth reading in
its entirety. But let me highlight a few points, and add some of my own.
Gen. McMaster argues that retrenchers — he prefers that term to restrainers —
chanting the “new mantra of ‘ending endless war’” ignore the rather obvious fact
that “sometimes wars choose you rather than the other way around: only after the
most devastating terrorist attack in history did the United States invade
Afghanistan.”
Which prompted me to ask: What might a “restrained” response to 9/11 have looked
like? To which I answered: Probably like the responses that followed al Qaeda’s
attacks on America’s embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the bombing of
the USS Cole in 2000. Washington’s restraint achieved nothing — other than to
convince Osama bin Laden that American blood comes cheap.
President Obama implemented a policy of restraint in 2011 when he pulled all
U.S. troops from Iraq. That didn’t end the endless war in that country. It just
made possible — if not inevitable — the Islamic State’s rise from the grave of
al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.
President Trump seems conflicted. In his recent address at West Point, he
proclaimed: “We are ending the era of endless wars.” Yet he also praised such
resolute warriors as George Patton and Douglas MacArthur, saying the latter
“knew that the American soldier never, ever quits,” as well as Ulysses S. Grant
who, far from demonstrating restraint during the Civil War, conveyed to
President Lincoln “that whatever happens, there will be no turning back.”
Mr. Trump has been displaying restrainer tendencies vis-a-vis Afghanistan. The
U.S.-Taliban agreement signed in February, Gen. McMaster writes, “will allow the
Taliban, al Qaeda, and various other jihadi terrorists to claim victory, recruit
more young people to their cause, gain control of more territory, and inflict
suffering through the imposition of draconian sharia.”
He adds that “the establishment of an Islamic emirate in a large portion of
Afghanistan would generate another wave of refugees and further destabilize
Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of over 220 million people. … Retrenchers do
not acknowledge that U.S. withdrawal often leaves a vacuum that enemies and
adversaries are eager to fill.”
What else, beyond losing wars and offloading the burdens of leadership, do
retrenchers/restrainers have on the menu? A long list of items is presented in
Foreign Affairs by Stephen Wertheim of the Quincy Institute, an organization
founded by billionaires George Soros and Charles Koch. The former is a man of
the left, the latter a man of the right, but both agree that it’s time for
American “primacy” to end.
Specifically, Mr. Wertheim urges Americans to “seek to transform globalization
into a governable and sustainable force.” Translation: The United States should
surrender sovereignty and power — the torch of leadership mentioned above — to
bureaucrats at the U.N. and similar transnational organizations.
Foreign Affairs’ editors summarized his other ideas: “Washington should withdraw
from much of the greater Middle East, rein in the ‘war on terror,’ rely on
diplomacy instead of force, and concentrate its attention on trying to steer the
global economy toward fairer and greener pastures.” Ponder those proposals for a
moment.
Would it be in America’s interest to cede the Middle East to Iran’s clerical
regime, which vows “Death to America!” and is developing the nuclear weapons and
intercontinental ballistic missiles necessary to fulfill that promise?
Will the scores of terrorist groups around the world pose more or less of a
threat if we “rein in” our efforts to foil their plots?
Can you think of a single example of diplomats who have been more effective by
talking softly and not carrying a big stick?
As for “trying to steer the global economy toward fairer and greener pastures,”
that’s the sort of blather one might expect to hear during an interview with the
runner-up in a beauty contest.
And can anyone be so naive as to believe that the rulers of China, Russia, North
Korea and Iran would become good neighbors in the global village if only we’d
choose to spend the remainder of the 21st century as a second-rate power? Plow
through the sophomoric ramblings of the restrainers/retrenchers, and I think
you’ll answer in the affirmative.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times.
The Regime in Iran Is Struggling. It’s Time for Washington to Exploit Its
Weaknesses.
Alireza Nader/FDD/July 01/2020
The Islamic Republic has been preparing for more nationwide demonstrations.
Under the guidance of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC), the theocracy’s praetorians, are close to completely
militarizing the political system. The ruling elite is also waiting to see
whether the U.S. presidential election will lead to sanctions relief and a
decline in unrest. Yet no matter who wins in November, Iran is likely to
experience continuing turbulence. As Iran’s previous demonstrations have
repeatedly revealed, the people’s economic complaints immediately become
political. They are not demonstrating to fine-tune the Islamic Republic; they
are demonstrating to end the theocracy. If massive demonstrations once again
take to the streets, would a Biden or Trump administration offer sanctions
relief in the face of mass killings?
Given the widespread hatred of the regime, Khamenei no doubt expects another
massive popular uprising resembling the one he endured in November 2019.
Khamenei survived the last round by giving shoot-to-kill orders to his security
forces, resulting in the death of at least 1,500 Iranian protestors, according
to Reuters. The next uprising is likely to be even bloodier given Iranians’
desire to challenge the regime and the security forces’ willingness to kill.
The immediate causes of potential unrest are Iran’s rapidly depreciating
official currency, runaway inflation, and shortage of hard currency. According
to Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, the value of Iran’s oil exports have declined
from $100 billion per year to $9 billion this year due to U.S. sanctions. The
official currency, the rial, now trades at 200,000 to the dollar, driving prices
upwards and millions of Iranians further into poverty.
These developments have led to massive excess liquidity in the economy as the
regime prints more money, which may drive inflation back toward 40 percent, if
not higher. The regime is also reported to be running out of foreign currency
and is likely to soon face a balance of payments crisis, which would lead to a
shutdown of much of the economy. A leading indicator of the coming crisis is the
regime’s inability to pay for key resources used in Iran’s agricultural
industry.
Khamenei and the IRGC are aware that additional economic shocks will likely lead
to major unrest. Their strategy is to create a state completely administered by
the IRGC. While a sickly and elderly Khamenei would retain nominal command, the
regime would more likely be directed by a select group of regime insiders,
including a fanatical faction of the IRGC, judiciary chief and rumored Khamenei
successor Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, and Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, a major power
behind the scenes.
In preparation, Khamenei and this group of regime insiders have appointed
Brigadier General Hossein Nejat as the head of the IRGC’s Sarallah command,
tasked with protecting the regime from internal unrest in the capital. Nejat has
extensive experience crushing previous uprisings, and his appointment is the
latest indication that Khamenei seeks only military solutions. The IRGC has also
gained control of parliament through the selection of IRGC officer Muhammad
Qalibaf as speaker, and has assumed command of the regime’s response to
COVID-19. The IRGC may also run its own candidate for the presidency after
incumbent Hassan Rouhani’s term ends in June 2021.
Yet it is difficult to imagine how the regime can escape its predicament. The
scale of economic damage to Iran and the regime’s lack of legitimacy among the
people are crippling. The vast range of sanctions arrayed against Iran will make
it difficult to reach a new nuclear agreement and suitable economic relief for
the regime.
Washington has enormous economic leverage over the Islamic Republic and should
therefore adopt policies that will spur the only meaningful alternative to the
current crisis: a transition to an Iranian democracy. To do so, the United
States should pursue the following policies:
First, U.S. policymakers should provide funding in order to unite the disparate
Iranian opposition movements and strikers within Iran, including labor unions,
teachers’ associations, railroad workers, human rights activists, and civil
servants struggling to survive amid a crashing economy. A massive strike coupled
with outside encouragement and support might bring the regime to its knees.
Second, U.S. policymakers should focus on weakening the IRGC. U.S. sanctions
have undoubtedly weakened the IRGC’s financial base, yet the regime’s top
security forces still have the resources and confidence to counter a popular
uprising. Washington should facilitate defections among top IRGC commanders and
encourage them to challenge the regime publicly from abroad. The Artesh, or
regular armed forces, are reported to be widely dissatisfied with the IRGC’s
control over the state and economy, and may therefore be more open to
defections.
Third, the United States should work with the Iranian democratic opposition to
create a roadmap for defecting non-IRGC officials seeking a future in a
post-Islamic Republic Iran. The security forces are likely to fight harder if
they believe they do not see a future for themselves in Iran, and therefore some
key officials may have to receive assurances.
Finally, Washington should actively aid Iranian protestors by disrupting regime
communications through cyber operations, while facilitating opposition
communications during widespread protests. The regime’s repression of the
November 2019 uprising was successful partly due to the regime’s nationwide
shutdown of the internet, which allowed the IRGC to kill and injure thousands of
Iranians with impunity.
The United States cannot base its Iran policy solely on the hope of rejoining or
renegotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. The Islamic Republic, impervious to reform
and democratic evolution, will always remain a revolutionary state at odds with
U.S. interests and security.
*Alireza Nader is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP)
and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from
Alireza, CEFP, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Alireza on Twitter @AlirezaNader.
Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
German intel says Iran ‘massively promotes antisemitism, Israel hatred’/Neo-Nazi politician met with Iran's chief proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Benjamin Weinthal/Jeusalem Post//July 01/2020
The domestic intelligence agency for the city-state of Berlin disclosed Thursday
in a new report on antisemitism that Iran’s clerical regime is a leading sponsor
of Jew-hatred.
“Antisemitism and hatred of Israel were also massively promoted by the Islamic
Republic of Iran. The leader of the Iranian Revolution Ayatollah [Ruhollah]
Khomeini already described Israel as the ‘little Satan’ and openly called for
the destruction of Israel. Antisemitism has been part of Iran’s state ideology
ever since [the founding of the Islamic Republic] and is regularly fueled by
statements by state representatives,” wrote the intelligence officials.
The Jerusalem Post reviewed the 49-page document that chronicles the various
forms of antisemitism in Germany.
The US government has gone further in its classification of Iranian regime
state-sponsored antisemitism. In January, US special envoy to monitor and combat
antisemitism Elan Carr said at an US Commission on International Religious
Freedom’s (USCIRF) Global Efforts to Combat Antisemitism hearing that “Iran is
not only the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, it is the world’s chief
trafficker in antisemitism. The Islamic Republic of Iran has pushed antisemitic
dogma throughout the Middle East and throughout the Muslim world beyond the
Middle East.”
US administrations under both Obama and Trump have classified Iran’s regime as
the world’s worst state-sponsor of terrorism.
The Berlin report noted that the German right-wing extremist politician Udo
Voigt, who is considered a neo-Nazi, demonstrated support for Iran’s regime. “In
his function as a former MEP [member of the European Parliament] for NPD
[National Democratic Party], Udo Voigt, for example, regularly showed solidarity
with the Iranian regime,” said the report.
The intelligence document added that “In addition, he maintained official
contacts with the Lebanese Hezbollah which… is classified by the European Union
(EU) as a terrorist organization. In 2018 and 2019, he traveled to Lebanon with
other European right-wing extremists for official meetings with representatives
of Hezbollah. In his statements on the meetings, Hezbollah is described as a
‘key factor’ in the Middle East.”
The report said that that “the development of modern antisemitism is also
associated with the strengthening of Islamist movements. From the 1970s onward,
Islamist thinking became particularly attractive, particularly in the Arab
nation-states. After the concepts of nationalism, Pan-Arabism and even socialism
had failed, it was relatively easy for Islamists to propagate the superiority of
an ‘Islamic’ social system. The strengthening of Islamist movements was also
promoted by the Iranian revolution in 1979, as a result of which Iran
established itself as a state carrier of Islamist ideology.”
The Post reported in the second week of June that Germany’s Foreign Ministry
reversed its position that previously labeled the Iranian regime’s calls to
exterminate the Jewish state as only “anti-Israel rhetoric,” telling the Post
that Tehran’s language is antisemitic.
The pro-Syrian regime news outlet Al-Masdar News (AMN) reported in June that the
commander-in-chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
Maj.-Gen. Hussein Salami, urged the “elimination” of the Jewish state.
When the Post asked German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas about Salami’s
statements, the Foreign Ministry said: “Such statements are absolutely
unacceptable. We strongly condemn calling for the annihilation of Israel,
legitimizing terrorism and spreading antisemitic content.”
*Benjamin Weinthal is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. Follow Benjamin on Twitter @BenWeinthal.
The IMF needs to take a break from forecasting
Mustafa Alrawi/The National/July 01/2020
The practice of economic forecasting has, in recent weeks, become a race to the
bottom. The increasingly grim readings of the tea leaves for global growth are
understandable as restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic put a sudden
stop on mobility and commercial activity, while hundreds of millions find
themselves out of work and the existence of tens of thousands of businesses
comes under threat.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its global outlook
compared to two months ago, saying it now expects GDP will shrink by 4.9 per
cent this year. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, world output is forecast to plummet 7.6 per cent this year in the
absence of a Covid-19 vaccine. Even with a vaccine, the OECD expects it to fall
by 6 per cent. The World Bank projects a contraction of 5.2 per cent in 2020, a
sharp downward revision from January. And Bloomberg analysts say output will
shrink 4.7 per cent in the best case. In Bloomberg’s more pessimistic view,
global GDP contracts 6.7 per cent.
The consensus is dire.
Historically, however, even without the wild card of a pandemic, economic
forecasts have a mixed track record. According to a Bloomberg analysis of more
than 3,200 forecasts published each spring since 1999 by the IMF, only in 6 per
cent of cases were they accurate. The IMF was shown to have been in almost equal
measures too optimistic and pessimistic at other times.
What a Syrian tycoon's appeals tell us about the future of the Assad regime
Oxford University’s Professor David Hendry, a leading specialist in the field of
economic forecasting, wrote in 2017 that “the repeated inaccuracy of economic
forecasts has led to that activity becoming the butt of many jokes, as well as
questions by [Britain’s] Queen Elizabeth as to why no-one foresaw the" the last
financial crisis.
“The usual assumption in macroeconomic analyses is that the outcome expected
today for tomorrow will be accurate, as indeed it would be if shifts did not
happen. But they do,” he wrote.
That is not to undermine how bad the situation is as described by the IMF, World
Bank and other global bodies. It is rather to point out that economic
forecasting is at the best of times of limited usefulness when planning for the
future. There are currently even more significant challenges facing anyone
trying to accurately project what is going to happen. Policy is changing
week-to-week, data has never been more unreliable and dependent on localities,
and economists now must also factor in the science at work behind the response
to the public health crisis.
It is near impossible to track such a fast-moving target. Added to that is the
impact of actions already being taken to mitigate the economic pain.
The IMF itself has been deploying about $100 billion in emergency funding to 72
countries during the pandemic. Governments across the world have stepped into
the fray with pledges to carry out historic levels of spending, too. We do not
yet know how this will alter the landscape.
Also, when every major institution is in agreement on what the outlook will be,
my natural reaction is to wonder if there may be some psychology at work given
the extreme levels of uncertainty in play.
It worries me, too, when there are no respected voices out there offering a
contrarian view. It tells me that there is too much fear in the air for any
analyses to be wholly relied upon. The safest option for any analyst right now
worried about their credibility, when there are so many gaps in our knowledge
and too many questions remain about the virus, is to not be an outlier.
This is true both in terms of the downside and upside. While collectively there
is an expectation of a significant rebound in growth next year, despite the risk
of second waves of the virus hitting, the emotional and mental impact of the
crisis means that forecasting more than a few weeks ahead will likely be clouded
by the prevailing sentiment on the ground.
The IMF’s own chief economist Gita Gopinath said last week that the situation is
very fluid. “You could have better news and treatments and vaccines and
improvement could be even faster. But it could also be worse if indeed the virus
cannot be contained and you have second waves,” she pointed out.
Given all of the above, during this crisis in particular, we have nothing to
lose from ignoring the latest batch of economic forecasts and everything to
gain. Better still, let us suspend them until 2021 at the earliest. Why is there
any need to churn them out so frequently?
Their main purpose – to inform policy makers – cannot be realistically fulfilled
when we all know that in a few months' time the forecasts will change again.
To keep producing them in the current atmosphere is unhelpful and only creates
alarmist headlines, heaping unnecessary pressure on governments already
grappling with the tension between the health and economic responses to the
crisis.
*Mustafa Alrawi is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National