LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 31/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you are citizens with the saints and also members of the household of God
Letter to the Ephesians o2/17-22: “Jesus came and proclaimed peace to you who were far off and peace to those who were near; for through him both of us have access in one Spirit to the Father. So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you are citizens with the saints and also members of the household of God, built upon the foundation of the apostles and prophets, with Christ Jesus himself as the cornerstone. In him the whole structure is joined together and grows into a holy temple in the Lord; in whom you also are built together spiritually into a dwelling-place for God.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 30-31/19
Damascus’ ‘Terrorist’ Listing of Lebanese Officials Will Only Weaken its Allies in Beirut
Lebanon: Nasrallah Heeds Int’l Warnings, Makes Calm Televised Appearance
Lebanese MP believes government will be formed this week
Lebanon: Alawite Representation Emerges as New Hurdle in Govt. Formation
Mother, Brother of Three-Year-Old Fire Victim Pass Away
Israel Breaches Technical Fence in Wazzani, Combs Area
Aoun Discusses Terror Financing with U.S. Official
American Envoy Meets Senior Lebanese Officials
Italian PM to Visit Lebanon Next Week
Kardel Meets Hariri, Says Formation of Unity Govt. 'Essential'
Ferzli Says Govt. Nearing Formation as Berri Says 'Little Issue' Being Resolved
Berri Says Delay in Forming Govt. is ‘Shameful’
Kataeb Party Blasts Ruling Authority's Frivolous Approach to Political Stalemate
Lebanese cultural icon Myrna Bustani bestowed AUB’s University Medal
Lebanon’s Political System Is at the Core of Its Malaise
Foreign Aid Will Not Solve Long-standing Economic Problems

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 30-31/19
Pro-Iranian and pro-Russian forces clash in Syria
Maduro Rallies Military as Venezuela Opposition Plans Protest
Trump slams 'naive' intelligence services over Iran threat
US Senate Pushes Bill to Impose Sanctions on Syrian Regime
Syria’s Opposition Coalition Backs ‘Safe Zone’ Bid
Ankara: Manbij, East of Euphrates Operation in Due Tim
Amnesty Pushes Travel Sites to Ban Israel Settlement Listings
Brazil Has No Current Plans to Relocate Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
Pompeo, Messahel Discuss Algeria Elections, Sahara Security
Egypt, Russia Agree to Bolster Economic, Security Relations
Palestinian woman tries to stab Israeli guards, shot dead
Egypt Reopens Rafah Crossing Borders for 3 Days
Iraqi Provinces Liberated from ISIS Hold Security Meeting
Iraqi Pilot, Poet under Fire for Publicly Praising Saddam

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 30-31/19
Lebanese cultural icon Myrna Bustani bestowed AUB’s University Meda/Annahar/January 30/19
Lebanon’s Political System Is at the Core of Its Malaise/Michael Arnold/TRT World/January 30/19/
Foreign Aid Will Not Solve Long-standing Economic Problems/Sunniva Rose/The National/January 30/19/
The European Court of Human Rights Does Not Deserve Its Name/Saied Shoaaib/Gatestone Institute/January 30/19
Too Many Americans Will Never Be Able to Retire/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/January 30/19
Women in Saudi society press for change — some suffer despite successes/Simon Henderson/The Hill/January 30/19
Technology theft, not trade, behind US tariffs on China/Martin Feldstein/Arab News/January 30/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 30-31/19
Damascus’ ‘Terrorist’ Listing of Lebanese Officials Will Only Weaken its Allies in Beirut
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The Syrian regime’s blacklisting as “terrorist” of a number of senior Lebanese officials will only hamper efforts to normalize relations between Beirut and Damascus, said political sources in Beirut that are opposed to the regime. They told Asharq Al-Awsat that the regime was angered by the failure to postpone the Beirut economic summit, held earlier this month, until after its membership is restored in the Arab League. It would have preferred for the summit not to be held at all in order to deliver a message to foreign powers that its troop withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 has not stripped it of its ability to control the political affairs of its smaller neighbor. As a result, Damascus issued “disciplinary” warrants against several of its Lebanese rivals, including Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblat. It also blacklisted Hariri’s Future Movement and Lebanon’s telecom company Alfa. The sources said that the warrants are ultimately worthless because the regime knows full well that its members, who issued them, are wanted by international judiciary. The measures will also not alter the balance of power in Lebanon, but they will act as a hurdle in normalizing ties between Beirut and Damascus. This issue will become a point of contention in the debate over the ministerial statement of a government that has yet to be formed. The warrants will also harm Syria’s allies in Lebanon, including President Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement, in their arguments in favor of normalizing ties with Damascus, continued the sources. The only way for normalization to be achieve lies in forming a one-sided government that does not include any of the officials who are “wanted” by Damascus, they added. This is unlikely to happen because it is “impossible” to drag Lebanon into an “adventure” in order to appease the Syrian regime, they remarked. The warrants will ultimately be ignored because they only impede returning Lebanese-Syrian ties to their normal course. Moreover, they are nothing more than political “vengeance” that cannot be implemented locally or internationally, they said.

Lebanon: Nasrallah Heeds Int’l Warnings, Makes Calm Televised Appearance

Beirut - Mohammed Shuqair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s recent “calm” televised interview appeared to heed international warnings that his party could come under an Israeli attack, said a western diplomat in Beirut. He noted that Nasrallah was calm when addressing the issue of Israel’s activities at the border with Lebanon where it had recently concluded an operation to expose and destroy Hezbollah border tunnels. “Nasrallah adopted a mild rhetoric when he spoke about the tunnels and precision missiles. This is seen as part of his self-defense,” he noted. International and Arab diplomatic channels had received word that Tel Aviv was seeking to launch an offensive against Lebanon, he revealed. He explained that an attack would boost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s image ahead of snap parliamentary elections in April.
The diplomat said that Nasrallah sought “zero escalation” in his remarks, but would “change the rules of engagement if Israel did.”His calm address was directed to the international community, continued the diplomat. He sought to relay the message that he stands behind the Lebanese army “against the walls that Israel is building.”He also wanted to direct a message to Lebanese powers, implying that he was willing to discuss the possibility of studying a national defense strategy without preconditions. Nasrallah’s ultimate goal, said the diplomat, was to send a message that he was not willing to put his party at odds with the international community, which is keen on cementing stability in Lebanon.

Lebanese MP believes government will be formed this week
Reuters, Beirut/Wednesday, 30 January 2019/A Lebanese member of parliament whose Hezbollah-aligned bloc is at the heart of prolonged wrangling that has obstructed a deal on a new national government said on Wednesday he believed it would be formed this week.
Asked if the government would be formed within 24 to 48 hours, Abdul Rahim Mrad told al-Jadeed TV: “I believe it will have been formed, I believe so because the atmosphere today is this.”He is one of six pro-Hezbollah Sunni MPs whose representation in the cabinet has been one of several obstacles to the formation of the government to be led by prime minister-designate Saad al-Hariri, also a Sunni. Hariri said on Tuesday this week would be decisive in efforts to form the government, seen as an essential first step towards addressing the country’s extensive economic ills including public debt equal to around 150 percent of GDP. The Hezbollah aligned Sunni MPs met the head of Hezbollah’s political office on Tuesday night. The heavily armed Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah is the most powerful group in the country. Asked how the latest efforts differed from previous failed attempts to form the government, Mrad said: “The difference is there is a serious atmosphere.”He noted that Gebran Bassil - a Christian politician at the heart of the talks - had “intensified his activities” in the last 24 or 48 hours.The front page headline of the pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper declared on Tuesday: “Balanced concessions accelerate the birth of the government”.

Lebanon: Alawite Representation Emerges as New Hurdle in Govt. Formation
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The long process of forming a new Lebanese government is again encountering a new hurdle with the demand of the Alawite minority, represented by two deputies in parliament, to have a ministerial seat. Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri rejects such a demand, for two reasons, according to sources in the Future Movement. The first is his refusal to “introduce a new custom that enshrines the representation of minorities in the government.” Second, he disapproves the formation of an expanded cabinet of 32 ministries, which would “give political forces the appetite for enlarging the scope of the procedural power in later stages.”The emerging demand comes in parallel with street movements, as young men from the Tripoli neighborhood of Jabal Mohsen (predominantly Alawite), staged a sit-in outside the northern city’s Fatima al-Zahraa mosque, in the presence of political and social figures. Speaking on behalf of the protesters, a member of the March 8 Sunnis’ Consultative Meeting, Mohamed Traboulsi, asked the two deputies of the Alawite community “not to give confidence to the government” if they do not obtain a ministerial portfolio. “As long as they talk about the formation of a government of national unity, we demand the representation of the Alawite community because it is a key component in Lebanon, especially as they say that [Prime Minister-designate] Saad Hariri and Minister Jebran Bassil do not want to give the Alawite a minister,” he said. The representation of the Hezbollah-backed Consultative Meeting in the cabinet is currently a main obstacle in the formation process. Mustafa Alloush, a member of the Future Movement politburo and former MP from Tripoli, said that the organizers of these protests were “the symbols of the Syrian regime and are strictly implementing its instructions.”“This demand is meant at having an expanded government of 32 ministers to ensure that the Free Patriotic Movement acquires the blocking third,” he noted. “A bankrupt country like Lebanon is supposed to reduce the size of the government rather than enlarge it,” he added. The Alawites - a minority group in Lebanon – account for about 55,000 people and had 36,000 voters registered on the electoral lists in the 2018 parliamentary polls. The vast majority are loyal to the Syrian regime, whose leader Bashar Assad is Alawite. They have two deputies in the Lebanese parliament, Ali Darwish from Tripoli, and Mustafa Hussein from the northern region of Akkar.


Mother, Brother of Three-Year-Old Fire Victim Pass Away

Kataeb.org/January 30/19/The mother and older brother of the 3-year-old David Khalil, who died in an apartment fire in Keserwan earlier this week, also passed away on Wednesday, the National News Agency reported. The blaze, which erupted Sunday night at an apartment in Kaslik, almost immediatey killed David and left his mother and brother suffering smoke inhalation. The 36-year-old Belarusian mother, Anastasia, succumbed to her wounds on Wednesday morning; her eight-year-old son, Farah, who had been in a coma since the incident, passed away later during the day.

Israel Breaches Technical Fence in Wazzani, Combs Area
Naharnet/January 30/19/Israeli infantry troops crossed the technical fence along the border with Lebanon in the Wazzani district in Marjayoun area, the National News Agency reported on Wednesday. The troops combed the area, for a whole hour, extending to the Wazzani River's eastern bank, said NNA. Meanwhile, an unmanned Israeli reconnaissance plane hovered over the areas of al-Ghajar, Abbasiyeh and the western outskirts of occupied Shebaa Farms. Furthermore, the enemy resumed excavation works along borders in the disputed land off the village of Adaisseh. Also, enemy troops have been working on the installation of chain-link fencing above the separation cement wall.

Aoun Discusses Terror Financing with U.S. Official
Kataeb.org/January 30/19/President Michel Aoun on Wednesday met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing, Marshall Billingslea, with talks focusing on joint efforts to combat the funding of terrorist groups and non-state actors. "The battle against terrorism is not over yet. We need the international community's cooperation on this mission," Aoun's media office quoted him as telling his visiting guest. Aoun also met with the head of the Audit Bureau, judge Ahmad Hamdan, who handed the president the annual report on the body's activities and decisions. “The fight against corruption won’t stop no matter how tough the pressure might get and how deep the interferences will be, because that is a part of the reformist plan which has started two years ago and will go on,” Aoun stressed.

American Envoy Meets Senior Lebanese Officials

Naharnet/January 30/19/Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary for Terrorist Financing, Marshall Billingslea, is scheduled to meet with senior Lebanese officials during his official visit to Lebanon that began Wednesday with President Michel Aoun, al-Joumhouria daily reported. The U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richard, accompanied Billingslea to his meeting with Aoun at the Presidential Palace. She will also accompany him on his tour of other Lebanese officials, NNA said. The two later met with caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil. Billingslea will meet Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, said the daily. Well informed sources told al-Joumhouria that the American envoy’s visit is “exceptional” and is intended to develop a work program entitled “Lebanese-US Partnership in the Fight against Financing of Terrorism.”The mission of the delegation is aimed at monitoring the implementation of sanctions against Iran and Hizbullah in particular, and the sanctioned Iranian institutions and terrorist organizations, according to the source. They pointed out that “Lebanon is a key partner in this mission and is committed to implementing all resolutions and laws that sponsor the movement of illegal funds in the world, especially through intermediary American banks.”“Discussion will focus on the manner in which these decisions are implemented, especially those concerning the banking sector in Lebanon on the basis of the “close partnership established by the US government with the Central Bank and Lebanese financial institutions," they added.

Italian PM to Visit Lebanon Next Week
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will visit Lebanon next week for talks with the country's top leaders, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency said. The Italian foreign ministry told NNA that the new Italian government will continue to support Lebanon and that there is no change in policy towards it. The Italian defense ministry meanwhile said that Rome highly values the role of the Italian contingent operating within the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) The ministry also denied reports about the possibility of returning Italian peacekeepers home due to reasons related to Italy's state budget, noting that Rome is mulling withdrawal from Afghanistan within 12 months."

Kardel Meets Hariri, Says Formation of Unity Govt. 'Essential'
Naharnet/January 30/19/Acting U.N. Special Coordinator Pernille Dahler Kardel held talks Wednesday with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and described the formation of the new government as “essential both for the stability and continuity of the country’s state institutions.”
“I just had a meeting with His Excellency Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and as always it is a great honor to meet him. Today was my last meeting with him where I bid him farewell before I finish my tour in Lebanon very soon. I expressed my deepest appreciation for the partnership that he and Lebanon have shown me and how I have been helped and supported as I have been implementing my mandate during the 14 months I have been here,” Kardel said after the meeting. She added that she also wished the Prime Minister-designate success in his efforts of forming a “national unity government.”“This is essential both for the stability and continuity of the country’s state institutions and for enabling Lebanon to benefit fully from the roadmap of international support that was laid out at the conferences held in Rome, Paris and Brussels last year,” the U.N. official added. “I have been very pleased that I have taken part in the concrete manifestation of that international support for Lebanon, including through the participation and preparation of these conferences, last year,” she pointed out. Kardel also thanked Hariri for his “continuous commitment to see full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701,” describing the resolution as “an important element in enhancing stability and to ensure that Lebanon remains on the right course to what is enhanced peace and security.” “I also hope that the new government will continue to strive to fully implement and to fully meet the international obligations for Lebanon,” Kardel added. “From the U.N. side, we will continue to work closely in partnership with Lebanon in support of the country’s stability, sovereignty and authority,” she said.

Ferzli Says Govt. Nearing Formation as Berri Says 'Little Issue' Being Resolved

Naharnet/January 30/19/Speaker Nabih Berri said Wednesday that the government formation talks are focusing on two points: “how to represent the Consultative Gathering and some final touches on some portfolios.”“A little issue is still being resolved, which is the political alignment of the Consultative Gathering's representative,” MP Ali Bazzi quoted Berri as saying during the weekly Ain el-Tineh meeting. Deputy Speaker Elie al-Ferzli meanwhile announced after a meeting for Parliament's Bureau in Ain el-Tineh that “a safety net of alternatives has been created should the government not be formed.”“All possibilities have been taken into consideration as well as the requirements of the public interest and Speaker Berri will act accordingly,” Ferzli said. “Things are nearing finalization but we cannot be 100% certain,” he added. The issue of representing the Hizbullah-backed Consultative Gathering, a grouping of six Sunni MPs, has delayed the formation of the government for several months now. There are also disagreements over the distribution of portfolios and previous disagreements over Christian and Druze representation had also hindered the formation process before being eventually resolved.

Berri Says Delay in Forming Govt. is ‘Shameful’
Naharnet/January 30/19/Speaker Nabih Berri criticized the stalled efforts to form Lebanon’s government and described them as “shameful and a real farce,” but nevertheless affirmed “ongoing” negotiations with the Consultative Gathering group in order to find the “appropriate” format. In remarks he made to his visitors, Berri touched on the blocking third issue saying: “It is difficult for a specific party to get the blocking third,” he said in reference to reported claims that the Free Patriotic Movement is seeking to get 11-ministers in a 30 seat cabinet which grants it veto powers. He said it was unlikely for Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to step down from his mission to form the government, assuring that he “adheres to having Hariri as Premier. Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has also given positive signals in that direction in his televised speech.”Berri said he insists on holding a legislative session soon “whether the government was formed this week or not.” “There are several pressing financial matters, tied to vital interests of the state, that need instant approval. I can not watch the gradual collapse without doing anything," he said. The issue of representing the Hizbullah-backed Consultative Gathering, a grouping of six Sunni MPs, has delayed the formation of the government for several months now. Previous disagreements over Christian and Druze representation had also hindered the formation process.

Kataeb Party Blasts Ruling Authority's Frivolous Approach to Political Stalemate

Kataeb.org/January 30/19/The Lebanese Kataeb party blasted the ruling authority's recklessness and frivolity in dealing with the current political stalemate, criticizing it for favoring exceptions over the general rules. "This moves Lebanon out of the democratic system that is ruled by the Constitution, and drags it into a system driven by urgency and de facto events," read a statement issued following the weekly meeting of the Kataeb's politburo. "Instead of speeding up the formation of a government, the approval of a new state budget and the referral of draft laws to the Parliament as per the constitutional norms, the political authority is seeking the endorsement of a budget through the caretaker government."The party voiced concern over the upcoming government's productivity given the deep divergences that are today hindering its formation, casting doubt over its effectiveness knowing that some are undermining the state's sovereignty, implicating Lebanon in regional conflicts and deepening the rift between the Lebanese. "Amid the fatal political, economic and financial deadlock that is plaguing Lebanon, the Kataeb party renews its proposal to form a government of specialists; one that is able of undertaking urgent reforms, while a national dialogue would be launched to disuss contentious and sovereign issues," the statement added. The politburo warned against piling up waste in the streets once again after both the Burj Hammoud and Jdeideh landfills have reached their capacity limits only two and a half years after their establishment, demanding the financial prosecutor to probe the failure to abide by the government's plan which stipulated that said sites would operate for a period of four years. The politburo also called for a parliamentary probe committee to investigate the relevant authorities' failure to devise alternative waste dumping solutions to date, slamming the fact that people are being forced to choose between landfill expansion and street waste piles.

Lebanese cultural icon Myrna Bustani bestowed AUB’s University Medal

Annahar/January 30/19
Among her many accomplishments, In 1994, she founded the Al Bustan Festival, which is credited not only with reviving the cultural life of Lebanon but with putting Lebanon on the world stage as a center for the performing arts.
BEIRUT: American University of Beirut highest award, the University Medal, was presented to businesswoman, former parliamentarian, philanthropist and patron of the arts, Myrna Bustani, last week at a ceremony filled with family, friends, and admirers in West Hall.
Chairman of the AUB Board of Trustees Dr. Philip S. Khoury and AUB President Dr. Fadlo R. Khuri spoke with affection of the school’s close ties to the Bustani family over several generations. President Khuri noted the Bustani family's extraordinary vision and determination in establishing a record of accomplishment as they reminisced about the many contributions the Bustanis have made to the university for more than a century. This includes AUB's Laura Boustany women's dormitory, built by Emile Boustani in honor of his wife of 35 years. Myrna Bustani “exemplifies the principles that define AUB—leadership and public service," said Chairman Khoury.
The first woman to serve in the Lebanese Parliament, Myran Bustani was elected to replace her father Emile Bustani (BA '29, MA '32) after his untimely death in 1963. Ms. Bustani also inherited her father's business interests, including his partnership in the multinational company, the Construction, and Trading Company(CAT Group). Although she proved adept at managing complex business operations and went on to establish the Al Bustan hotel in Beit Mery, Myrna Bustani never lost her passion for the arts. With her degree from the Faculty of Arts at the University of Lyon, she organized concerts for the British Lebanese Association for Lebanese soloists in London. In an important decision, this previous experience led her to conclude that Lebanon with its beauty and sophistication could attract premier classical musicians after the war. In 1994, she founded the Al Bustan Festival, which is credited not only with reviving the cultural life of Lebanon but with putting Lebanon on the world stage as a center for the performing arts.
“Imagine the abilities it takes to get a 60-piece orchestra, musicians, instruments, and all, on the road to perform in a country still beset by conflict. Now look at Myrna, and understand that she is truly a remarkable woman," said President Khuri praising this signal accomplishment of Ms. Bustani.
A school trustee since 1979, Myrna Bustani was appointed trustee emerita in 2013.  Her presence at the school carries a long legacy with fellow family members. She is a relative of the 19th-century writer and scholar Butros al-Bustani whose bicentennial AUB is planning to honor in November with a Festschrift and other celebratory events. In addition to being the daughter of distinguished alumni, Mryna is a cousin of the distinguished neuro-geneticist Dr. Rose-Marie Boustany and former Washington Post journalist Nora Boustany, both of whom are AUB faculty members.
During the very challenging civil war years, Myrna Bustani was a strong and passionate champion of AUB and helped rebuild and extend its influence with programs throughout the region. In 1981 she and Trustee Emeritus Ali Ghandour established The President's Club, which has supported many initiatives over the years that enrich student life on campus.
Bustani's long list of awards includes: The Order of the Cedar, Officer Rank; The Merit of Culture from the Ministry of Arts of the Polish Republic; The Golden Insignia of the Republic of Austria; The Friendship Medal from Russia; and The Commander of the Isabelle la Catholique Order from the King of Spain. A founder of the British Lebanese Association (in 1980) and the Centre for Lebanese Studies, Oxford (in 1990).  Ms. Bustani also has the distinction of having been honored by Liban Post as one of six pioneering Lebanese women in a 2017 commemorative stamp.
Upon receiving the University Medal, Ms. Bustani commented, “To me, AUB is my father, Emile. AUB is education, medical research, and healthcare. AUB is the future."
The University Medal was established by the Board of Trustees in spring 1990 to recognize individuals for distinguished and meritorious service to the university. Myrna Bustani has followed in her parents' footsteps as a passionate advocate for a better world—one filled with art and music, and educational opportunity. She now joins a hallowed group in AUB history.

Lebanon’s Political System Is at the Core of Its Malaise
Michael Arnold/TRT World/January 30/19/
The economic and political crises facing Lebanon will not be solved until the political structure is overhauled.
There are no two ways about it, Lebanon is – to use the language of the IR theorists – on the verge of becoming a ‘failed state’, both politically and economically.
Lebanon’s economic crisis underlines the problems that arise from deep structural issues with its political system. Dating back to the French Mandate, the various sects that up modern-day Lebanon divide parliamentary seats, cabinet posts, and ministries between them as part of Lebanon’s confessional – or sectarian – system. The system mandates that cabinet decisions be passed by a two-thirds majority, effectively institutionalising political deadlock, which has more often than not been the case, particularly in the post-civil war era.
Furthermore, despite electoral reforms enacted before last year’s parliamentary elections that saw the introduction of proportional representation elements, there is currently no political will among both the political elite and the population for broader reforms. The prevailing fear is that it would re-awaken tensions from the civil war that remain buried just below the surface.
The current system—and today’s political players who are largely leftovers from the country’s fifteen-year civil war—keeps Lebanese politics and the economy locked in a parasitic and symbiotic relationship vulnerable to corruption, identity politics, and near-constant external manipulation.
As it stands today, Lebanon’s debt-to-GDP ratio is at 150 percent of GDP, one of the highest in the world, and the current account deficit now stands at around 20 percent of GDP. According to a recently released government report on the state of the economy, 32 percent of government expenditures in 2016 went towards interest payments. A further 32 percent went towards paying wages and salaries of the bloated public sector, leaving less than a third of government revenue for actual investments and services. With the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 180 percent by 2024, three-fifths of government revenue will be needed to service the debt.
The nearly $11 billion offered up by the World Bank, the European Union and a host of other players was made contingent on Lebanon forming a government and the implementation of challenging economic reforms. Qatar’s recent pledge to buy $500 million worth of government bonds may shore up the economy in the short-term, but ultimately just kicks the proverbial can down the road.
Following the Qatari announcement, Saudi Arabia announced that it was prepared to do all that it could to prop up the Lebanese Economy. This, of course, is more reflective of regional geopolitics than a genuine concern of advancing economic growth and standards of living in Lebanon.
The Lebanese economy has long been dependent on the GCC. Tourism, which constitutes one of the five key sectors targeted for growth by the Lebanese government economic report, relies on wealthy visitors from the likes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, which together make up 60 percent of all tourist spending in Lebanon.
Over half of all Lebanese exports go to the GCC economies, with Saudi Arabia as the number one destination. Private consumption and domestic demand have been driven mainly by remittances (in conjunction with credit provided by banks), particularly from the Gulf. Furthermore, from 2003 to 2015 three Gulf countries accounted for 76 percent of new foreign direct investment in Lebanon.
This dependency on the Gulf makes Lebanon vulnerable not only to economic cycles of boom and bust but also to the geopolitical rivalries of the region. The fact that Lebanon is effectively dependent on the assent of Hezbollah (who along with its allies hold a de facto veto on Cabinet decisions) before any significant policy decision is made, makes this relationship even more volatile, as demonstrated by Saudi Arabia’s suspension of a $3 billion aid package in 2016 in protest of the rise of the movement.
Additionally, following the apparently forced resignation of Lebanese Prime-Minister Hariri at the hands of the Saudi crown prince (also related to Hezbollah), the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain urged their citizens not to travel to Lebanon, which would have had devastating consequences for Lebanon’s tourism sector.
In the political domain, Lebanon is dominated by political elites with multiform loyalties, whether to sect, outside powers, or even themselves. As the facts play out, it is difficult to faithfully argue that any member of the political elite has the best interests of Lebanon in mind.
Political apathy is high, and the dependent patron-client style relationship between political leaders and their respective communities only furthers the unwillingness of the citizenry to entertain the idea of substantial political reform.
Squabbles between politicians are more likely to be about their respective share of the spoils, rather than any substantial disagreement over policy. Eighteen out of the twenty biggest commercial banks in the country are wholly or partly owned by politicians and well-connected families, and political gridlock over how to divide the spoils is largely responsible for the long delay in exploiting energy resources in Lebanon’s territorial waters. Since the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, political paralysis has prevented even a semblance of politicians acting in the best interests of the people.
All of this, of course, makes Lebanon more and more vulnerable to geopolitical machinations playing out in the region. The recent Arab Economic Summit held in Beirut was demonstrative of this. In particular, it illustrated Lebanon’s weak regional diplomacy as well as domestic and regional divisions over Syria and Iran. Except for the Qatari Emir and the Mauritanian President, no head-of-state attended the summit. According to Mohanad Hage Ali, a political analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, “the lack of attendance gives a message that Lebanon lacks agency”.
Lebanon has long been the ground on which regional powers have jockeyed for position, mostly, if not exclusively, to its detriment. This is precisely the point: Lebanon’s sectarian system, which has engendered client-patronage relationships between the political elite and their particular segment of the citizenry on the one hand, and between the political elite and foreign powers on the other—not to mention the pillage-like levels of corruption—is at the very core of its economic, political and ultimately social malaise.
The government has a plan to restart the economic engine, but this too will ultimately be doomed to fail, unless substantial political transformation takes place. Unfortunately, there is not much to indicate that this will be the case.

Foreign Aid Will Not Solve Long-standing Economic Problems
Sunniva Rose/The National/January 30/19/
Lebanon has welcomed recent financial commitments from regional states who are hoping to help the country survive a serious economic slump.
But in the absence of significant reforms, financial pledges will do little to solve deeply-rooted economic problems, analysts said. Speaking at The World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, Saudi Foreign Minister Mohammed Al Jaadan said the kingdom is ready to “support Lebanon all the way”, without providing further details on the nature of such assistance. He spoke just one day after Qatar announced it would buy $500 million worth of sovereign bonds to help support the country’s finances. “Lebanon’s stability is our region’s stability and it’s very important for Qatar,” Foreign Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told Bloomberg on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We took our decision both based on our assessment to stabilize the economy and also as an investment decision, this is a good investment.” The announcement came after Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attended an economic and development summit in Beirut this week. He was one of only two Arab heads of state to do so. Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its credit rating for Lebanon this week, putting it on par with Gabon, Zambia, Iraq and Ukraine.
Moody’s downgrade was due to concerns over the government’s ability to pay or restructure its debt amid a liquidity crunch that raises the risk of default.
Lebanon has been without a government since parliamentary elections were held in May. This has compounded the economic problems of a country saddled with the world’s third highest debt to GDP ratio and is struggling to control its finances amid a stagnating economy and pressure from hosting over a million Syrian refugees.
Lebanon’s political class was quick to downplay Moody’s announcement and focused instead on welcoming the Qatari investment. “Despite the report, the financial and monetary situations remain stable”, caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said in response to the report. The Treasury is “able to meet all its commitments, especially (regarding) debt”, he continued, adding that “Qatar’s subscription to Treasury bonds boosts confidence in Lebanese issuances”. Mr Khalil recently stirred panic in bond markets when he told a local newspaper that the country may restructure its debt. However, he later clarified that Lebanon is committed to paying back all maturing debt. In Davos, caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil told CNN on Wednesday that the state of the Lebanese economy wasn’t “so bad.”
He applauded Qatar’s decision to buy Lebanese bonds and said that other countries should follow suit. “I invite others to do the same because it’s safe and with a good return,” he said.
“We are in the mood of encouraging the Saudis and other countries (…) to help Lebanon to stay stable”.
Qatar’s decision represents a short-term stimulus to the Lebanese Central Bank which is facing a liquidity crisis. But this will not alleviate the country’s widening budget deficit, says Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs Sami Nader. The Central Bank has played an important role in supporting the local economy in the absence of strong political leadership. Qatar’s support has also proved controversial considering that it is at odds with Lebanon’s traditional backer, Saudi Arabia. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, as well as the UAE, severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of cosying up to Iran.
However, Mr Nader believes that Qatar’s move was mostly motivated by a desire to break out of the diplomatic isolation imposed by its GCC neighbours. “It’s a smart tactical move but Qatar makes no strategic or financial gain from it”, he says. Saudi Arabia has not offered any significant aid to Lebanon since it cancelled a $4 billion aid package for the country’s security forces nearly three years ago. The kingdom claims that Lebanese authorities turn a blind eye to Hezbollah’s activities. Today, the powerful Iran-backed party is accused by its opponents of blocking the formation of a cabinet. “GCC countries have become increasingly hesitant to help Lebanon since the beginning of the Yemeni war and Hezbollah’s support to the Houthis”, says Mr Nader. “Saudi Arabia has the capacity to save Lebanon from economic collapse but to do so they need guarantees that Hezbollah will not reap anything from it”.
In addition to tensions caused by regional politics, Lebanon’s failure to form a government has also kept nearly $11 billion of aid pledges made in Paris last April locked away. Some Lebanese commentators warn that if the status quo persists, Lebanon is headed for disaster. “It is inconceivable that a country with such a high level of debt continues to dither about forming a cabinet”, says Hadi El Assaad, coordinator for the Institute for Finance and Governance. “Lebanon must find a solution to this crisis so that international help can manifest itself. The capacity of the Central Bank to find solutions for the economy is not infinite”. “Excluding any major shock, we can continue 18 months like this - with no government and no international help - but no more”, warns Roy Badaro, economic advisor to the president of the Lebanese Forces, a political party.
“The more we postpone, the less we will be able to adjust”.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 30-31/19
Pro-Iranian and pro-Russian forces clash in Syria
UAWIRE/January 30/2019/The Tiger Forces, an elite formation of the Syrian government army, have clashed with the 4th Armored Division, the Turkish Anadolu Agency reported, citing sources in Syria. According to the news agency, the Tiger Forces are backed by Russia, whereas the tank division, which is commanded by Bashar al-Assad’s brother General Maher al-Assad, is backed by Iran. The encounter reportedly took place in Syria’s Hama province in the north-west of the country. Anadolu did not specify an exact date. Russia is trying to turn the Syrian army into a single structure with strong military leadership, and is betting on Suheil al-Hassan, commander of the Tiger Forces, observes a report by the Turkish Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Stuidies. Al-Hassan is popular among the soldiers and enjoys authority among the Alawi officers (Alawism is the branch of Islam which the al-Assad family adheres to). Aleppo and eastern Ghouta were recaptured by Syrian government forces under al-Hassan’s leadership. Other Syrian commanders, including Maher al-Assad, are opposed to al-Hassan acquiring greater influence, the report notes. “Local sources describe the conflict as an attempt to reduce Iran’s influence in the region,” Anadolu writes, noting that “many were wounded and killed” in the encounter. Der Spiegel also wrote about the conflict on 25 January. The German news magazine has a radio communication recording which is evidence of a conflict between “the Syrian divisions of two of Assad’s primary allies – Russia and Iran”. According to Der Spiegel, the encounter took place on Saturday 19 January and was won by the formation trained by Russian specialists. There is no precise information about the number of casualties, probably because “neither party wants to publicize the battles between the allies,” Der Spiegel observes. After the clash on 19 January, the situation has stabilized somewhat, but the two sides “continue to shoot at each other from time to time”. According to the German magazine, both Moscow and Tehran want to assert control over the Al-Ghab Plain in the northwest of Syria’s Hama province. The valley lies between the “native province of the Assad clan” and Idlib, the last stronghold of the anti-Assad forces.

Maduro Rallies Military as Venezuela Opposition Plans Protest
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 30/19/Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro hit out Wednesday at military "mercenaries" he says are conspiring to divide the armed forces and plot a coup as the opposition planned a new protest to force the socialist leader from power. Maduro accused an "oligarchy" in neighboring Colombia of being behind an attempt by military deserters to drive a wedge between himself and his loyal forces, which are key to the leader's hold on power faced with mounting international support for self-proclaimed acting president Juan Guaido. Six major western European countries have set a weekend deadline for Maduro to call elections or they too will recognize Guaido as interim president. In a telephone call, US President Donald Trump congratulated Guaido on his "historic assumption of the presidency," giving him a new sense of legitimacy, the White House said.
Speaking at a parade of 2,500 military personnel in Caracas, Maduro declared: "Where there are mercenary traitors, justice!" It came just hours before a midday strike announced by opposition leader Guaido. The strike aims to "demand that the armed forces side with the people" after bloody clashes following protests last week left more than 40 people dead and 850 incarcerated. Oil-rich Venezuela has suffered an economic meltdown marked by hyperinflation and shortages of basic necessities that has left millions in poverty, while 2.3 million more have fled the country. "Venezuela has risen up to dream of the country we want to be," said Guaido. "We must take to the street."In an interview with the German daily Bild, he called on EU countries to impose more sanctions on Maduro's government. The U.S. slapped oil sanctions on Maduro's regime earlier this week in an attempt to starve the government of its funding. Another mass street demonstration is planned for Saturday. National Assembly president Guaido wants Maduro to step down so he can set up a transitional government ahead of new elections. In an interview with Russia's RIA Novosti agency, Maduro said he was willing to negotiate with the opposition and, mockingly, even offered to bring forward parliamentary elections. "I am ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the opposition so that we could talk for the good of Venezuela," said Maduro, 56. "It would be very good to conduct parliamentary elections at an earlier stage."
But France said Maduro has not responded to an EU demand for elections.
'Let them wait'
Although in opposition hands since 2015, parliament has been sidelined since 2016 as the regime-loyalist dominated Supreme Court annuls its every decision. Maduro created a rival legislature -- the Constituent Assembly -- made up exclusively of his supporters. What Guaido and the National Assembly are demanding, though, is presidential elections, something Maduro is unwilling to countenance. "Presidential elections in Venezuela have taken place, and if imperialists want new elections let them wait until 2025," he said in an apparent reference to Washington.
The United States, the European Union and many Latin American countries joined the opposition in dismissing the legitimacy of presidential elections Maduro won in May. Several opposition leaders were unable to stand due to being imprisoned, exiled or barred, leading to a boycott from their parties. Guaido, 35, says Maduro is "illegitimate" and launched a direct challenge to the former bus driver's authority last week when he declared himself acting president. He has received backing from the U.S. and several major countries but it is the support of the military that he needs most to drive Maduro out of power. The military high command remains loyal to Maduro but Guaido has tried to convince the rank and file to switch sides. Last week, a group of soldiers rose up against Maduro while Venezuela's military attache to Washington deserted the president on Saturday. The US has urged Venezuela's armed forces to "accept the peaceful, democratic and constitutional transfer of power."
'Final throes'
"The regime is in its final throes," said Guaido. The United States has refused to rule out military intervention in Venezuela and Donald Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton was even photographed on Monday at the White House holding a notepad with the scrawled line: "5,000 troops to Colombia." A furious Maduro said Trump would have "blood all over his hands" if violence breaks out in Venezuela. In a tweet, he urged the opposition to "ignore the imperialist calls" and reiterated his offer of dialogue to Guaido. He has previously accused the U.S. of trying to orchestrate a coup.

Trump slams 'naive' intelligence services over Iran threat
AFP/January 30/19/The US president outlined the scale of the risk still posed by Tehran's nuclear ambitions Trump tells intelligence officials to 'go back to school'
LONDON: Donald Trump on Wednesday attacked the US intelligence services as "naive" and "wrong" on the threat he says is posed by Iran. In scathing tweets, the US President outlined the scale of the risk still posed by Tehran's nuclear ambitions and aggressive policies in the region. And he said that the intelligence services failure to grasp that meant they should "go back to school!""The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!" Trump said in a Twitter post. "When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond. Since ending the terrible Iran Nuclear Deal, they are MUCH different, but a source of potential danger and conflict. "They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge." Trump said the only thing holding Iran back is its "crashing" economy. Leaders of the US intelligence community told a Senate committee on Tuesday that the nuclear threat from North Korea remained but that Iran was not taking steps toward making a nuclear bomb. Trump last year pulled out of an international nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran. Trump also defended his decision to withdraw 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria on grounds that Daesh no longer poses a threat, saying "we've beaten them.""Caliphate will soon be destroyed, unthinkable two years ago," Trump said on Twitter.

US Senate Pushes Bill to Impose Sanctions on Syrian Regime
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The US Senate advanced legislation that would impose new sanctions on Syria’s regime, more than a month after President Donald Trump said he would withdraw US forces from the conflict there. The new bill includes new sanctions and requires the president’s approval. Democrats blocked the measure during the five-week partial government shutdown that ended over the weekend, saying they would not agree to consider it until the agencies reopened. Now, most Democrats joined Republicans in their request to consider the bill.
The measure would direct the Trump administration to impose sanctions on entities that do business with the regime, such as selling petroleum products or aircraft parts. The legislation also would authorize security assistance for Israel and would reauthorize expedited defense sales to Jordan.
It would let state and local governments refuse to do business with any company or individual engaging in boycott, divestment or sanctions activity directed at Israel or Israeli-controlled territories. On Monday, 19 Democrats voted against advancing the legislation, and several Democrats indicated they would oppose the measure because of a provision that seeks to counter the “Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions” (BDS) movement by opposing boycotts or divestment from Israel. “While I do not support the BDS movement, we must defend every American’s constitutional right to engage in political activity. It is clear to me that this bill would violate Americans’ First Amendment rights,” Sen. Bernie Sanders said in a statement. US House of Representatives approved the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act which imposes sanctions on the Syrian regime and its supporters. The act is named after the whistleblower who defected from Bashar Assad’s regime and smuggled tens of thousands of photos of those tortured to death in regime prisons. This bill declares that it is US policy to use all diplomatic and economic means to compel the regime to halt the slaughter of the Syrian people and work toward a democratic government.

Syria’s Opposition Coalition Backs ‘Safe Zone’ Bid

Ankara- Said Abdel Razek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The Head of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces tied establishing a ‘safe zone’ in northern Syria to finding a political solution to the ongoing conflict, reaffirming that it would ensure security throughout the country. “Supporting a safe area in Syria is in line with finding a political solution, instead of adding more obstacles,” said Abdurrahman Mustafa. “The ultimate goal is to ensure security throughout Syria, to secure the safety of the entire Syrian people, to restore their freedom and rights, and to provide a safe and decent environment,” he added. Mustafa considered the establishment of safe zones as necessary for anguished civilians in Syria, in addition to playing a serious role in facilitating the return of refugees to the war-ridden country, and pointed to the need for coordination between Washington and Ankara, especially in light of the former’s decision to pull out from Syria. He stressed the need to avoid having the “vacuum left behind by American withdrawal filled by terrorist organizations or the regime and its allies.”Turkey will bring peace to east of the Euphrates River in Syria "very soon," President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said earlier on Monday. The spotlight returned to the creation of Syria safe zones in the north, near borders with Turkey, after US President Donald Trump announced intentions to withdraw from Syria last December. Ever since, Turkey stressed its willingness to form the zone alone.

Ankara: Manbij, East of Euphrates Operation in Due Time

Ankara- Said Abdel Razek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar stated on Tuesday the end of all preparations for carrying out a new trans-border operation in Syria. “The Turkish Armed Forces have ended all preparations within the scope of employment. We will carry out all the necessary actions in Manbij and in the east of the Euphrates in due time,” the defense minister said. “The only target of the Turkish Armed Forces is terrorists,” Akar added, referring to preparations for a military operation against the People's Protection Units YPG in northern Syria. In the past month, Turkish forces have been massing along the Syrian border for a military strike against the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. Ankara considers the YPG as terrorists linked to a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in Turkey. Akar pointed out that Turkey stresses in talks around Syria with concerned countries, namely the US, the need for a swift YPG retreat from Manbij. On June 4, Turkey and the United States signed the "road map" agreement for Manbij, which included a US commitment to pull out Kurdish “units” from Manbaj to the east of the Euphrates within a 90-day timeframe, after which the town will be placed under security supervision until a local council is formed. In an argument to validate Ankara’s operations inside Syria, Akar said that the Adana Treaty signed between Ankara and Damascus in 1998, authorizes Turkey to carry out operations against what he labeled as “terrorists” within the Syrian territory. The Adana Agreement was signed on October 20, 1998, by Egyptian-Iranian mediation to prevent a war between Turkey and Syria, which housed the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and established training camps for its elements on its soil. In the same vein, Turkish analysts said Ankara had three options for a military operation targeting the Kurdish "units" east of the Euphrates. One analyst at the Milliyet daily said the first option was to move forward with the understanding on forming a safe zone proposed by President Donald Trump in December. The second is the activation of the Adana Agreement, proposed by Russia, which would allow for a unilateral Turkish offensive in Syria. The third is to establish a region free of terrorism on its border with Syria.

Amnesty Pushes Travel Sites to Ban Israel Settlement Listings

Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Amnesty International on Wednesday urged online travel sites to ban listings from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The London-based rights group's report, titled "Destination: Occupation," said rental sites Airbnb, Booking.com, Expedia and TripAdvisor are driving tourism to settlements that most of the world considers illegal. Airbnb announced last November that it would remove West Bank settlement listings but has yet to implement its decision. The company says it is working to identify the "precise boundaries" of areas subject to the policy. Amnesty called on Airbnb to immediately implement its ban and to extend it to east Jerusalem, which Israel captured along with the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast War. The Palestinians seek these lands for a future independent state. On Twitter, Israeli Cabinet Minister Gilad Erdan called the Amnesty statement "an outrageous attempt to distort facts, deny Jewish heritage & delegitimize Israel." The World Jewish Congress said it was disheartened by Amnesty's report and called on it to shift its focus back to human rights. "Amnesty International is a serious and respected human rights organization, whose work to stop abuses around the world should never be underrated, but its singular focus on corporate entities doing business in Israeli settlements is gravely misguided," said WJC CEO and Executive Vice President Robert Singer. "If Amnesty wishes to involve itself in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it should center its attention on the real human rights abuses ongoing in Palestinian territories, and not attack corporate businesses who strive to bridge divides and build peace through global tourism and interaction."

Brazil Has No Current Plans to Relocate Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem

Brasilia - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Brazil’s Vice President Hamilton Mourao denied that his government is currently planning to relocate its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Mourao is serving as acting president because Jair Bolsonaro is recovering from a surgery he had undergone on Monday. Mourao made his remarks during a meeting with Ibrahim Al-Zabin, Ambassador of Palestine in Brazil and dean of the Arab diplomatic corps. During his presidential campaign, Bolsonaro had spoken of his intention to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem to follow the lead of US President Donald Trump who had transferred the US embassy there in May 2018. Bolsonaro’s move had sparked objection among his allies, who urged him against it. However in January, he confirmed that the decision has been taken and all that remains is to determine the date of implementation.

Pompeo, Messahel Discuss Algeria Elections, Sahara Security

Washington - Atef Abdullatif/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdelkader Messahel met on Tuesday with US Secretary of State Michael Richard Pompeo at the State Department in Washington. The meeting tackled development of bilateral cooperation, as well as security affairs, the fight against terrorism and the upcoming elections in Algeria. Both parties also discussed a number of regional issues of common interest, the latest developments in the file of the disputed Sahara region between Morocco and Polisario movement and the outcomes of negotiations that were held in Geneva in December. Pompeo and Messahel co-chaired on Monday the fourth Algerian-US Strategic Dialogue session and agreed to continue cooperation to reach their common goal to achieve regional stability and defeat terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and ISIS. They expressed their strong support for increasing trade cooperation and strengthening economic partnership, as well as reaching understandings in the fields of educational exchange and protection of cultural heritage. Messahel’s meeting with his US counterpart coincided with the Security Council meeting on the Sahara to discuss the latest developments. UN Western Sahara envoy Horst Koehler was set to brief the Council on developments in the Sahara and outcomes of the Geneva talks. Morocco, Polisario, Algeria and Mauritania held the two-day talks after six years of halted negotiations. Although they did not reach any result or understanding, the final communiqué confirmed the commitment of the parties to continue the talks, which could eventually lead to direct negotiations. But so far, none of the parties involved in the conflict has shown any change in its positions. Washington praised the resumption of direct talks. It stressed the need to link the renewal of the UN Mission in Western Sahara’s (MINURSO) mandate with "substantive political" progress in the negotiations.

Egypt, Russia Agree to Bolster Economic, Security Relations

Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi received in Cairo on Tuesday Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev with both officials underscoring their cooperation in military, security and economic fields. Sisi praised the Russian efforts in the comprehensive development process in Egypt, confirming the importance of promoting military cooperation between the two countries, according to a statement by presidency spokesperson Bassam Rady. The meeting was attended by Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri, head of General Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel and the Russian ambassador in Cairo. Sisi praised Egyptian-Russian relations, referring to the establishment of the nuclear plant in Dabaa which is significant step forward in boosting bilateral relations. He also discussed the Russian industrial zone, which will be established in East Port Said and will help enhance direct Russian investments in the joint production sector. The meeting also discussed consolidating coordination and cooperation on regional issues, challenges in the Middle East, military and security cooperation and the recent developments in the area, especially in Syria and Libya. The two sides underlined the need to reach solutions to these crises in a way that preserves the unity of these countries. Patrushev expressed Moscow’s keenness on developing Egyptian-Russian relations. He pointed out the importance of working to consolidate efforts on the military and security fronts, especially with regard to the fight against terrorism and extremism. He lauded Egypt’s efforts in fighting terrorism, stressing the need to join efforts in establishing mechanisms that fight this international threat.

Palestinian woman tries to stab Israeli guards, shot dead
AFP, Jerusalem/Wednesday, 30 January 2019/A Palestinian woman tried to stab Israeli guards at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Jerusalem on Wednesday, Israeli police said, with Palestinian officials reporting she was shot dead. “At the security checkpoint at Zaim a female suspect attempted to stab security guards that were on patrol in the area” and “units responded”, police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said in a statement, without giving further details.
The Palestinian health ministry said the woman was killed by Israeli fire east of Jerusalem.

Egypt Reopens Rafah Crossing Borders for 3 Days

Rafah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza Strip was temporarily reopened in both directions on Tuesday after being partially closed for more than 20 days due to some internal Palestinian disputes. An official source at the Hamas-controlled crossing said that "the Egyptian gate of the crossing was opened at 10 am sharp and buses moving Palestinian passengers started to enter."Hundreds of citizens have gathered since early morning in front of Rafah crossing gate and were waiting to hear their names in the travel lists despite the cold weather, said an AFP reporter. "I came to visit my family and then the crossing closed," said 30-year-old Samar Obaid, who was crying before leaving with her son. “We discovered that my son, who in Egyptian national, has leukemia and must return to Egypt to be treated as he can’t be treated in Gaza, and every delay is a threat to his life.”Huwaida al-Jibali, for her part, who left with her 28-year-old son, said that "opening the crossing for three days is not enough. Many people have humanitarian needs, and some are patients, students and businessmen...”She explained that she would travel from Egypt to Abu Dhabi, where her son found a job after failing to find one in Gaza, adding that the situation there is bad and youth have no job opportunities. Notably, the Palestinian Authority (PA) withdrew its employees from Rafah crossing on January 6 after reportedly accusing Hamas of arresting and abusing them. This left Hamas in control of Gaza's only entry point into Egypt, whose authorities have subsequently kept the crossing shut to incoming Palestinians. Rafah border crossing is the only way out for Gaza's two million residents. Egypt opens the crossing for humanitarian cases at various intervals while Israel has been imposing a tenacious siege on the Strip for ten years now. Hamas used to manage Rafah border crossing with Egypt and Kerem Shalom and Beit Hanoun border crossings with Israel when it seized control of Gaza Strip in the summer of 2007. Following that, an accordance government was formed and took over the crossing in October 2017 after reaching understandings with Hamas, however, they later collapsed.

Iraqi Provinces Liberated from ISIS Hold Security Meeting

Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/Baghdad - Fadel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/The five Iraqi provinces that were liberated from the ISIS held an expanded security meeting on Tuesday to address the remaining pockets of the terrorist group in the country. The meeting included acting Kirkuk Governor Rakan al-Jabouri, Nineveh Governor Naufal al-Aaqoub, Diyala Governor Muthana al-Tamimi, Salaheddine Governor Ammar Jabr al-Jabbouri and Anbar Governor Ali Farhan and was chaired by Chief of Staff Othman al-Ghanemi. The talks focused on drafting plans to restore stability in the liberated regions and bolster security coordination with neighboring provinces. Several observers have underlined the dangerous security challenges in the liberated provinces, recognizing that ISIS was still a threat there. Security expert Saeed al-Jayashi said: “The military challenges in these provinces have been resolved. What remains are small ISIS pockets that every now and then, carry out assassinations and bombings.” He stressed to Asharq Al-Awsat the importance of holding meetings between local authorities and liberated provinces in order to permanently eliminate the ISIS threat.
He underlined to that end the role that can be played by civilian groups and local authorities to resolve the people’s social problems. Spokesman for the Salaheddine elders council Marwan Jabara warned that security challenges persist in liberated provinces, noting significant gang activity there. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Tuesday’s security meeting “did not yield any new results and was limited to routine talks.”“The current security challenges are a result of political failure,” he stressed. He also spoke of the failure to invest in the rapprochement between the civilians and security forces and the authorities’ failure to properly address the people’s concerns. He explained that reconstructing destroyed areas and allowing the displaced to return to their homes will necessitate restoring security and stability. Meanwhile, security forces in Kirkuk detected the location of a terrorist group that includes nine ISIS members, who are wanted by the authorities. The group, which was hiding in the Sulaymaniyah province, was arrested in an operation that was coordinated with the security forces in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

Iraqi Pilot, Poet under Fire for Publicly Praising Saddam

Baghdad - Fadel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 January, 2019/It appears too soon to claim that the Iraqi people have recovered from the era when the Baath party and Saddam Hussein used to rule their country. Sixteen years after the US invasion that ousted Saddam and his ruling regime, the people are still sensitive about that era in their history.Despite this, some Iraqis often bring up the Baath and Saddam on various occasions, prompting political Islam parties, including the Dawa, to remind them of the dangers of the return of the Baath to power. The Baath has been banned from Iraq and anyone promoting its ideas could face up to 15 years in jail. This has not deterred some people from recalling Saddam and praising his years in power. The praise is often based on comparing the current situation in Iraq to the way it was before the 2003 US invasion. The latest such praise saw pilot, Ahmed Saad, of glorify the Baath. Social media had circulated a response the pilot had made to a comment in which he said: “Rest in peace Abu Uday (meaning Saddam) and others who fended off the Wilayet al-Faqih.” Saad did not issue a statement to confirm or deny his comment, but he will likely face some form of penalty after the military authorities review his case. His comment had prompted outcry from the martyrs and prisoners committee, which had demanded that he be held accountable for his actions. The committee represents people who were killed or imprisoned during the Baath era. Head of the committee and leading member of the Dawa party Khalaf Abulsamad addressed a memo to the Defense Ministry, urging it to take action against Saad for “glorifying the Baath party on his Facebook page.”In the southern Dhi Qar province, a poet, Salah al-Harbawi had caused similar uproar when he composed a poem that glorifies Saddam. He was inspired to write it after the visit to Iraq in December by US President Donald Trump. He recited the poem during a commemoration of the death of a member of the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces, sparking outrage among the gatherers and applause from others.
Poet Aqil al-Aard told Asharq Al-Awsat that Harbawi’s poem “lacked awareness”. He explained that he had sought to compare between the pre- and post-Baath eras. “He did not intent to praise Saddam,” he added. Dawa party member Qassem Mohammed Jabbar attributed the frequent lauding of the Baath and Saddam to the authorities’ failure to strictly apply the law that bans the party. The Dawa, which boasted three prime ministers since 2003, is the Iraqi party that is most paranoid about the return of the Baath to the political scene. Jabbar told Asharq Al-Awsat that just last week, some political powers attempted to name some candidates from the banned party to assume positions in the Foreign Ministry. He demanded that the people behind such suspicious activity be held accountable. He acknowledged that the Dawa is worried about the Baath’s return to the scene given the bad history between the two parties. He added, however, that other social segments have recently formed a parliamentary front, which includes Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni lawmakers, to counter the reemergence of the Baath party.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 30-31/19
The European Court of Human Rights Does Not Deserve Its Name
Saied Shoaaib/Gatestone Institute/January 30/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13533/european-court-human-rights

It is a shame that voices such as Bahiri's are being drowned out in the West, not only by fundamentalist Islamists but by liberal apologists -- and courts. Evidently they are more fearful of being called "Islamophobic" than they are of protecting the victims of radical Islamism.
The recent ECHR ruling against Sabaditsch-Wolff for speaking her mind about Mohammed's marriage to a little girl is not merely a slap in the face to freedom of expression in an academic sense. It also serves to keep silent all those Muslims who are physically and mentally victimized by the practices sanctified in the Quran and by those adopting the strictest interpretation of Quranic texts.
In so doing, the court is giving its stamp of approval for criminal practices, such as paedophilia. Crimes that victimize children must not be tolerated. The European Court of Human Rights does not deserve its name.
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is giving its stamp of approval for criminal practices, such as paedophilia. Crimes that victimize children must not be tolerated. The European Court of Human Rights does not deserve its name. Pictured: A court room of the ECHR in Strasbourg, France. (Image source: Djtm/Wikimedia Commons)
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) recently ruled that referring to the Islamic Prophet Mohammed's marriage to a 9-year-old as paedophilia is "beyond the permissible limits of an objective debate."
As Judith Bergman explained in the wake of the October 25, 2018 judgement, which was handed down seven years after "free speech and anti-jihad activist, Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff, was convicted by an Austrian court of 'denigrating religious symbols of a recognized religious group'":
"Sabaditsch-Wolff was ordered to pay a fine of 480 euros and the costs of the proceedings. The Vienna Court of Appeal upheld the decision... Sabaditsch-Wolff then appealed... to the European Court of Human Rights. She stated that her right to freedom of expression, safeguarded in Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights, had been violated."
According to the recent ECHR ruling, Article 10 had not been violated. Furthermore, it stated that the Austrian court that convicted Sabaditsch-Wolff had "served the legitimate aim of preserving religious peace in Austria."
Even more shocking than ignoring the whole point of freedom of expression by talking about "preserving religious peace" was the ECHR's defense of the Austrian court for stating that that "child marriages were not the same as pedophilia, and were not only a phenomenon of Islam, but also used to be widespread among the European ruling dynasties."
The problem here is the word "were" -- as though child marriages in Islam are a thing of the distant past. In fact, such unions continue to be sanctioned by Muslim religious authorities in many countries across the world.
According to the famous Saudi Arabian mufti, Sheikh Ibn Baz, there is nothing wrong with a girl of 9, 10 or 11 getting married, as Aisha was 7 when she wed the Prophet Mohammed, and "only" began having sex with him when she was 9.
The Qatar-based Egyptian theologian, Yusuf al-Qaradawi -- chairman of the International Union of Muslim Scholars -- has confirmed that the Quran is clear about a girl being able to marry prior to reaching puberty, as long as her husband refrains from having sex with her until she begins menstruation, just as the Prophet Mohammed did when he married Aisha.
Sheikh Saeed Numan, an Egyptian cleric at Cairo's Al-Azhar University, the largest and most important religious educational institution in the Sunni world, recently went as far as to say that a girl can be married well before the age of 9 -- even, "according to the Quran," when still in her mother's womb.
Child marriage exists today in more than 100 countries, including in the West.
Take, for instance, Germany. As Soeren Kern recently wrote:
"The Federal Court of Justice (Bundesgerichtshof, BGH), Germany's highest court of civil and criminal jurisdiction, has ruled that a new law that bans child marriage may be unconstitutional because all marriages, including Sharia-based child marriages, are protected by Germany's Basic Law (Grundgesetz).
"The ruling, which effectively opens the door to legalizing Sharia-based child marriages in Germany, is one of a growing number of instances in which German courts are — wittingly or unwittingly — promoting the establishment of a parallel Islamic legal system in the country."
It is important to note, however, that not all Islamic scholars consider child marriage legitimate, even from a Quranic standpoint. One such researcher is Islam Bahiri, who views the nuptials of young girls as rape. Bahiri has even refuted the assertion that Mohammed's wife, Aisha, was 9; he claims that she was actually 18.
It is a shame that voices such as Bahiri's are being drowned out in the West, not only by fundamentalist Islamists but by liberal apologists -- and courts. They are evidently more fearful of being called "Islamophobic" than they are of protecting the victims of radical Islamism. It is possibly this fear that leads to the curbing of free speech for all of, as in the case of Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff in Austria.
The recent ECHR ruling against Sabaditsch-Wolff for speaking her mind about Mohammed's marriage to a little girl is not merely a slap in the face to freedom of expression in an academic sense. It also serves to keep silent all those Muslims who are physically and mentally victimized by the practices sanctified in the Quran and by those adopting only the strictest interpretation of Quranic texts. In so doing, the court is giving its stamp of approval for criminal practices, such as paedophilia. Crimes that victimize children must not be tolerated. The European Court of Human Rights does not deserve its name.
**Saied Shoaaib is a Muslim writer and researcher, specializing in Islamic movements. He is so-author of the recently published book, SUBMISSION: The Danger of Political Islam to Canada – With a Warning to America, written with co-authors Tom Quiggin, Tahir Gora, Jonathon Cotler, and Rick Gill with a foreword by Raheel Raza. The book is available on Amazon.com in both paperback and Kindle versions. His Email: saiedshoaaib@gmail.com
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Too Many Americans Will Never Be Able to Retire

Noah Smith/Bloomberg/January 30/19
Traditionally, Americans could look forward to a comfortable retirement. After four decades in an office or a factory, sometime in their 60s they would lay down their burdens and enjoy a final couple of decades with time to relax, spend time with family and friends, and reflect on their life. But since the financial crisis, older Americans have been increasingly staying in the workplace.
Some see this as a positive trend, because it adds to the economy. But others rightfully view it with trepidation, because there’s the distinct possibility that many of these elderly people just can’t afford to retire. Whether their nest eggs were wiped out in the housing crash, or they just didn’t save enough, or whether their kids don’t make enough money to support them, the decline of retirement seems like an ominous development.
The pressures on older Americans to work will likely only become greater in the coming years. This is because the young, working population needed to support retirees will see slower growth, and possibly outright shrinkage.
As recently as 10 years ago, the US had unusually high fertility rates for a developed nation. The total fertility rate — the number of children a woman can be expected to have over her lifetime — was about 2.1 children per woman, which is the level required for long-term population stability. But since then, the rate has fallen to 1.8 in 2016, implying long-term population shrinkage.
Much of this is due to a fall in fertility among Hispanics, whose birth rates are converging with those of other groups. The Great Recession was undoubtedly a trigger as well; permanently lower expectations of income and wealth made child-rearing seem like a more financially daunting prospect.
Fewer kids means, eventually, fewer young workers to support an increasing population of retirees. This will result in less money being paid into the Social Security and Medicare systems, requiring either cuts in benefits, a higher retirement age or ever-ballooning deficits. Past experience suggests that Americans will be asked to work longer.
The US bounced back from falling fertility once before, in the late 1980s. But as economist Lyman Stone has written, there are reasons why history may not repeat itself. High and increasing costs of housing, child care and education show no sign of reversing. The need for ever-higher levels of education in order to thrive in the US job market is causing families to delay childbirth, which results in fewer children. Stone projects that US fertility rates could fall as low as 1.5 or 1.4 — the levels that prevail in Japan and some European countries.
There is one more source of population growth that the US has traditionally depended on — immigration. Low-skilled immigrants make it easier to raise kids by providing cheap child-care services. High-skilled immigrants earn more and pay a lot of taxes, while using few government services themselves, meaning that their fiscal contribution is enormously positive.
But low-skilled immigration to the US has declined, meaning that more expensive childcare is on the horizon. And high-skilled immigration may soon taper off, as President Donald Trump’s policies and rhetoric make the country less hospitable for the world’s best and brightest.
In other words, the US may soon find itself without its two big long-term population boosters, and wind up as a graying, shrinking nation, with young people burdened with supporting ever-more old people, and the elderly themselves forced to work long into what used to be the golden years. In this, the US will be following in the footsteps of Japan. Japan has had low fertility for much longer than the US, and until recently had little immigration. Even now, although immigration has been increased, it’s mostly of the low-skilled variety — with uncompetitive low salaries and an ossified corporate culture, Japan has had great difficulty attracting high-skilled foreigners.
As a result, the country’s social security system has come under great strain. As the country grew older and older, Japan repeatedly raised the retirement age, cut benefits and raised taxes on the working population. It also created a wage subsidy for elderly employment, and allowed older people to claim higher total benefits if they delayed their retirements.
This combination of carrots and sticks successfully pushed older Japanese people to stay in the labor force. Both men and women aged 60 through 64 began working much more than before, while employment levels for people aged 65 through 69 recovered to the high levels that had prevailed before Japan’s lost decade in the 1990s. People over 65 are estimated to have raised the country’s employment levels by about 2 million since the economic recovery began in 2012.
This is being hailed as a miracle or good news in some quarters. And it’s true that putting armies of old people to work has helped Japan arrest its economic stagnation despite its lack of skilled immigration or young people. But is this really the solution that the US should want? Is putting grandma and grandpa behind a store counter or in an office into their late 60s and 70s a victory, or a grim necessity? If the US wants to avoid Japan’s fate, it needs to take steps to avoid Japan’s population structure. Urgent measures to make housing cheaper, such as those suggested by Senator Elizabeth Warren, should be paired with generous child-tax credits and universal pre-K education, in order to bring down the costs of having children. And the US should emphatically reverse course on Trump’s policies toward skilled immigrants, dramatically expanding the number of employment-based green cards and implementing a Canadian-style points-based system for letting in large numbers of skilled foreigners.
Keeping a healthy, stable population of productive young workers is better than working until we drop.

Women in Saudi society press for change — some suffer despite successes
Simon Henderson/The Hill/January 30/19
Women’s rights in Saudi Arabia has been in the news in recent months, now that they can drive cars and watch sporting events and live entertainment. But according to an Amnesty International report released on Jan. 25, as well as other earlier reports, some of them are tortured and sexually-abused while in arbitrary detention by the Saudi government. The apparent sin of these victims was to be political activists, campaigners for the advances now enjoyed by the many.
Yet the issue of the treatment of Saudi women is wider than that, as the recent case of Rahaf Muhammad al-Qanun illustrates. The 18-year-old fled her family and flew to Bangkok, hoping to get to Australia. Thai officials allowed a Saudi diplomat to seize her passport but she held onto her cell phone, successfully organizing a campaign for asylum, alleging that her mother and brother had beaten her. Within days she was allowed to enter Canada, where she was personally greeted by Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, who has been at diplomatic war with Riyadh since last summer, when the Saudis took exception to the Canadian official’s tweet expressing concern about human rights.
Are the worrying reports mere aberrations in the reform plans of the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, or are they more deeply rooted? What constitutes progress in the kingdom sometimes is jaw-dropping. Earlier this month, the Saudi Ministry of Justice announced a measure to curtail the practice of men divorcing their wives without telling them. The divorce court now will send the ex-wife a text message! Women also can check their marital status on an official website.
The core of the debate appears to be that MbS, as the crown prince is widely known, wants all the credit for reforms in the country and does not want the appearance of popular action forcing change. This may be a modern version of the old-style Saudi society — that the father, grandfather or senior male in the family dictates how its members behave. If so, there may be a contradiction with the new reality emerging on the ground.
Popular opinion is reported to overwhelmingly favor MbS’s reforms. Anecdotally, this would seem correct. A recent visitor told me how amazed she had been, seeing the transformation in the social sphere in Riyadh since her previous visit. But whether this applies outside the main centers of urban prosperity and the under-30 age group is harder to measure. The aging King Salman holds a majlis (gathering) for religious leaders and other citizens on an almost monthly basis. Bearded and white haired, none of them looks the type who would rush to see American singer Mariah Carey perform in Jeddah on Jan. 31.
After weeks of seemingly defensive caution following the Oct. 2, 2018, killing and dismemberment of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the kingdom again is playing offense, putting on a major effort at last week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told the Financial Times: “When this subject [the Khashoggi killing] came up among everyone we met, they said that they condemned what happened and expected those responsible be brought to justice. Without exception, though, nobody is pulling out or hesitating to continue [to work with us].”
But among Davos delegates, the FT reported “reactions to doing business with Saudi Arabia were mixed.” Opinions along the lines of “[in the] penalty box” or “too controversial” were matched against others who thought “the Khashoggi affair had been relegated to the past.” The divide may well hinge on a personal view of whether MbS knew of the murder plan.
Significant arbiters of the world’s view on Saudi Arabia may turn out to be non-Saudi women. Despite the Saudi minister’s comments, the Khashoggi affair has had a wide impact. “Even my mother has heard of it,” a contact commented to me over lunch in Washington last week. Prospective investors in the kingdom, particularly publicly-owned companies, may have to consider the reputational risk of putting their money on MbS.
And the pressure continues. Agnes Callamard, the United Nations special rapporteur on extrajudicial killings, has announced her intent to visit Turkey next week to start an independent probe into what exactly happened to Khashoggi, whose body is still missing. MbS’s irritation could well be matched by boosted morale for Saudi women activists.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.


Technology theft, not trade, behind US tariffs on China
Martin Feldstein/Arab News/January 30/19
The current conflict between the US and China is not a trade war. Although the US has a large trade deficit with China, that is not the reason why it is imposing high tariffs on imports from China and threatening to increase them further after the end of the current 90-day truce on March 1. The purpose of those tariffs is to induce China to end its policy of stealing US technology. The Chinese government refers to the conflict as a trade war because it hopes that buying large quantities of American products will lead the US to end its tariffs. The Chinese negotiators have recently offered to buy enough US products to reduce the trade deficit to zero by 2024. Tellingly, the US negotiators have rejected that as a way to end the dispute.
The US wants China to stop requiring American firms that seek to do business in China to have a Chinese partner and to share their technology with that partner. That policy is explicitly forbidden by World Trade Organization rules, which China has been obliged to respect since they joined the organization in 2001. The Chinese deny that they are violating that rule, arguing that US firms are not being forced to share technology: They do so voluntarily in order to have access to the Chinese market and to Chinese production opportunities. But American firms regard China’s behavior as a form of extortion.
The US also wants China to stop using cyberespionage to steal technology and other industrial secrets from American companies. Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to end such digital theft of US industrial technology after he met with President Barack Obama in 2015. Unfortunately, the agreement reached at the time was very narrow, referring only to theft by both governments. Although the agreement did lead to a temporary reduction in cyberthefts of industrial technology, cyberattacks on US companies — possibly carried out by Chinese state-owned industries and other sophisticated organizations — have increased again in recent years. The Chinese use the stolen technology to compete with US firms in China and in other parts of the world. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer recently estimated that this technology theft is costing the US economy $225 to $600 billion per year. And the FBI has asserted that China’s cybertheft of American technology is the “most severe” threat to US national security.
The US government has no desire to stop China’s economic growth or the growth of its high-tech industries. But stealing technology is wrong. Likewise, a 142-page report on the US-China conflict by the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in China emphasized the problem of technology theft. The report made no reference at all to the trade balance. That, no doubt, is because the authors understand the basic economic fact that the overall US global trade imbalance is the result of economic conditions in the US — the excess of investment over savings. If the Chinese bought enough US goods to eliminate the bilateral imbalance, the US imbalance would merely shift to other countries, without reducing the overall imbalance.
The US tariffs are clearly hurting the Chinese economy. The Chinese stock market is down substantially, and the economy is growing more slowly. Annual real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was down to just 4 percent. The Chinese authorities are making statements signaling their eagerness to conclude an agreement with the US in order to stop the economic slowdown and reverse the decline in the Chinese stock market. The White House also makes positive statements about the negotiation, because doing so appears to boost the US stock market. But the reality is that there is no progress yet in dealing with the fundamental problem of technology theft.
The US government has no desire to stop China’s economic growth or the growth of its high-tech industries. But stealing technology is wrong. It has gone on for too long and should not be allowed to continue. The US is determined to stop it. If nothing is resolved by March 1, the US will raise the tariff on $200 billion of Chinese exports from 10 percent to 25 percent. That will hurt the Chinese economy further and cause the Chinese authorities to take the US demands more seriously — and to negotiate accordingly.
• Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984.
• Project syndicate