LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 20.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.january20.20.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
All of us once lived among them in the passions of our flesh, following the
desires of flesh and senses, and we were by nature children of wrath, like
everyone else
Letter to the Ephesians 02/01-10/:”You were dead through the trespasses and sins
in which you once lived, following the course of this world, following the ruler
of the power of the air, the spirit that is now at work among those who are
disobedient. All of us once lived among them in the passions of our flesh,
following the desires of flesh and senses, and we were by nature children of
wrath, like everyone else. But God, who is rich in mercy, out of the great love
with which he loved us even when we were dead through our trespasses, made us
alive together with Christ by grace you have been saved and raised us up with
him and seated us with him in the heavenly places in Christ Jesus, so that in
the ages to come he might show the immeasurable riches of his grace in kindness
towards us in Christ Jesus. For by grace you have been saved through faith, and
this is not your own doing; it is the gift of God not the result of works, so
that no one may boast. For we are what he has made us, created in Christ Jesus
for good works, which God prepared beforehand to be our way of life.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on January 19-20/2020
Human Rights Watch Slams ISF's 'Brutal Use of Force'
Lebanon Protesters to Rally Anew after Almost 400 Hurt in Clashes
Almost 400 injured in Lebanon clashes: Rescuers
Beirut Braces for More Violence, after Night of Riots
Diab Meets with Aoun amid Reports of Imminent Govt. Formation
Aoun to preside over a security meeting tomorrow
Diab meets with Berri in Ain El-Tineh
Hariri says persistence of confrontations between the army, security forces and
protesters yields no solution
Rahi to those obstructing the cabinet formation: You bear the responsibility of
shame and disgrace for what happened in Hamra and Beirut
Al-Hassan: Army Chief praised the work of the security services, confirmed
continuation of coordination to maintain order
ISF: For maintaining demonstrations' peacefulness, since we will be forced to
deter rioters
Al-Sayyid: The government still faces obstacles
El-Machnouk: For early presidential and parliamentary elections and a technocrat
government
Jumblatt: Beirut deserves not this treatment!
Kouyoumjian: Method of rule is responsible
Red Cross: 169 cases were transferred to hospitals as a result of the events in
Central Beirut
Lebanon: Three Months of Protests
Hariri Urges New Govt., Calls on Tripoli Protesters to Shun Violence
Lebanon: Hariri Calls for Govt. Formation Following Night of Riots
Lebanon’s Hariri: ‘stop wasting time’ in government talks, economic solutions
Bassil 'Accepts' Proposal from Diab on Seat Distribution
Lebanon to release protesters detained after night of riots
Lebanon’s ‘week of rage’ ends in violent clashes
Rubber Bullets, Tear Gas, Water Cannons Fired at Stone-Throwing Protesters in
Beirut
Protesters back on Beirut streets after overnight bid to storm parliament
Violence Predominates Confrontations Between Protesters, Security Forces in
Beirut
Israel to build anti-tunnel sensor network along Lebanon border
Afiouni: Heart-breaking, offensive, suspicious and rejected scenes of violence
Three young men reported missing in Harabta outskirts, search operations
continue
Raad: Whether you participate or not in the government, you are concerned and we
will not let you be!
Syria’s invisible hand in Lebanon confronts Iran’s allies/Basem Shabb/The
National/January 19/2020
My observation on the serious recent
developments in Lebanon/Robert Rabil/January 20/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 19-20/2020
Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high precision tech for missiles
that struck US bases in Iraq/DEBKAfile/January 19/2020
Bodies of Ukrainian victims of Iran plane crash returned home
France’s Macron says presence of foreign fighters in Libya must end immediately
Canada says there are no firm plans for downloading black boxes from crashed jet
Iran Warns of Repercussions for IAEA over European Moves
Iran backtracks on plan to send flight recorders to Ukraine
Iran parliament threatens to review cooperation with IAEA: TV
UK’s Johnson, France’s Macron reiterate commitment to Iran nuclear deal
Clashes, demonstrations erupt throughout Iraq shutting down roads and bridges
Protesters burn headquarters of Iraqi Hezbollah militia in Najaf
World powers begin Libya peace talks in Berlin
Putin: Don't lose hope that Libya conflict will be solved
Libyan tribesmen say they have closed al-Sharara and al-Feel oilfields
No normalization in relations yet, UK PM Johnson tells Russia’s Putin
Jordan Parliament Approves Draft Law to Ban Gas Imports From Israel
UNRWA’ Warns of Israel's Attempt to Force it Out of Jerusalem
Yemen says Houthi attack is revenge for Soleimani, calls on UN to condemn
Yemen: Dozens Killed in Houthi Bombing on Army Camp
Leaders vow to form multilateral committee at Berlin summit on Libya
Cyprus brands Turkey a ‘pirate state’ in gas drilling row
Ahead of Senate trial, Trump legal team rejects impeachment as flawed
Police fire tear gas at Hong Kong protesters as thousands rally
India, Sri Lanka seek closer military ties to counter China
Powerful 6.0 earthquake shakes China’s Xinjiang
China’s national health commission says viral outbreak is ‘controllable’
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 19-20/2020
Obama Passed the Buck. Trump Refused to Play./Tablet magazine/Lee Smith/January
19/2020
On Paths of Leadership in Lebanon/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 19/2020
Palestinian Elections: Between the Ambiguous and the Impossible/Nabil Amr/Asharq
Al Awsat/January 19/2020
The US might finally unveil deal of the century, in the run-up to Israel's
election/Jonathan Cook/The National/January 19/2020
Iran’s wounded rulers bring region to the boil/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January
19/2020
Urgent action on inequality can close SDG gap/Kevin Watkin/Arab News/January
19/2020
Turkey’s actions in Libya restricted by other foreign actors/Yasar Yakis/Arab
News/January 19/2020
Khamenei struggling to prove regime has legitimacy in Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/January 19/2020
What the world’s movers and shakers will talk about this week/Cornelia
Meyer/Arab News/January 19/2020
Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim/Elana DeLozier/The Washington
Institute/January 19/2020
Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and Washington Should Take
It/Charles Thépaut and Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/January 19/2020
Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya/Ben Fishman and Charles
Thépaut/The Washington Institute/January 19/2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News & Editorial published on January 18-19/2020
Human Rights Watch Slams ISF's 'Brutal Use of Force'
Associated PressNaharnet/January 19/2020
Human Rights Watch has described the Internal Security Forces’ response to the
central Beirut demo which turned violent on Saturday as "brutal," calling for an
urgent end to what it called a "culture of impunity" for police abuse. "There
was no justification for the brutal use of force unleashed by Lebanon's riot
police against largely peaceful demonstrators in downtown Beirut," said Michael
Page, deputy Middle East director at HRW. "Riot police showed a blatant
disregard for their human rights obligations, instead launching teargas
canisters at protesters' heads, firing rubber bullets in their eyes and
attacking people at hospitals and a mosque," he said. Saturday’s demo witnessed
the fiercest violence since protests erupted three months ago. Protesters have
called for more rallies on Sunday. Riot police fired volleys of tear gas and
rubber bullets to disperse thousands of protesters rallied outside the
parliament and in downtown. The protesters, who came from the country's north,
east and Beirut, lobbed firecrackers at security forces, metal bars, stones and
tree branches. The pitched street battles lasted for nearly nine hours, leaving
almost 400 people injured. Caretaker Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan said
Saturday that security forces were ordered to protect peaceful protests. "But
for the protests to turn into a blatant attack on the security forces and public
and private properties, this is condemned and totally unacceptable," she
tweeted.
Lebanon Protesters to Rally Anew after Almost 400 Hurt in
Clashes
Agence France Presse
Almost 400 people were wounded during running battles between Lebanese
anti-government protesters and security forces in Beirut Saturday, rescuers
said, the heaviest toll since the demonstrations erupted three months ago. More
street rallies were expected Sunday as part of popular protests since October 17
that have demanded the wholesale ouster of the Lebanese political class, which
activists condemn as inept and corrupt. Sunday morning, the streets were mostly
empty as rain fell on the center of Beirut, with police cars guarding the
entrances to the main protest hub at Martyrs' Square. On a side street leading
towards the seat of government, a tea pot lay among black cinders on the
pavement where unknown perpetrators set fire to protest tents the night before.
Ali, a 34-year-old who had camped in one of the tents, said he had lost his
belongings in the blaze and was left with "just the clothes I'm wearing and the
papers I had in my pocket."But "the attack made us stronger. We will continue
with even more energy to speak out the truth," he said, as he huddled around a
wood fire next to the wreckage wrapped in a thick blanket. On Saturday, at least
377 people were injured -- both protesters and members of the security forces --
according to a toll compiled by AFP from figures provided by the Red Cross and
Civil Defense. An AFP photographer at the scene said security forces fired
rubber bullets at stone-throwing protesters as thick clouds of tear gas covered
central Beirut.
'Police abuse'
On Sunday, social media users and a local television channel shared the
testimonies of relatives of at least two young men they said were hit in the
eyes by rubber bullets. Saturday's clashes began after dozens of protesters,
some concealing their faces with scarves, threw rocks and plant pots at
anti-riot police guarding the road leading to parliament in Beirut. Others tried
to breach barbed wire barricades to reach the legislature building or charged
police lines using traffic signs. The security forces responded with water
cannon and tear gas to disperse the crowds. Protesters had called for a week of
"anger" as an economic crisis deepened while efforts remained deadlocked to form
a new government to replace a leadership that stepped down under street pressure
last year. The Civil Defense said 43 people were taken to hospital, and 114
others treated at the scene over slight injuries or "breathing problems."
The Red Cross said it had rushed 80 people to hospitals while 140 were given
first aid on site. The state-run National News Agency said around 30 people were
briefly detained. Security forces said they had opened an investigation after a
video shared online showed police beating up people believed to be protesters as
they were brought to a Beirut police station. "Another day without a government,
another night of violence and clashes," U.N. envoy to Lebanon Jan Kubis said on
Twitter, summing up the country's situation since October. Political factions
agreed on December 19 to appoint former education minister Hassan Diab as the
new premier but have since squabbled over proposed ministers. The protesters
have demanded that a new government be comprised solely of independent experts,
and exclude all established political parties they accuse of being motivated by
personal and partisan gains.
The World Bank has warned the poverty rate in Lebanon could rise from a third to
half of the population if the political crisis is not resolved soon.
Almost 400 injured in Lebanon clashes: Rescuers
AFP, Beirut/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Almost 400 people were wounded Saturday during running battles between
anti-government protesters and Lebanese security forces in the capital Beirut,
rescuers said. It was the heaviest toll since the protests erupted three months
ago, with the Red Cross and Civil Defense saying 377 people at least were rushed
to hospital or treated at the scene. More demonstrations were expected later
Sunday as part of the wave of popular protests that has demanded the wholesale
ouster of the Lebanese political class, which the activists condemn as inept and
corrupt. Protesters had called Saturday for a week of "anger" as an economic
crisis deepened while efforts remained deadlocked to form a new government to
replace the one that stepped down under street pressure late last year.
Saturday's clashes began after dozens of protesters, some concealing their faces
with scarves, threw rocks, plant pots and other objects at anti-riot police
guarding the road leading to parliament. Others tried to breach barbed wire
barricades to reach the legislature building or charged police lines using
traffic signs as weapons. The security forces responded with water cannon and
tear gas to disperse the crowds.
Beirut Braces for More Violence, after Night of Riots
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Public Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat ordered Sunday the release of 34 people
detained in clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters that
wounded hundreds in the capital. It was the worst violence since the unrest
erupted three months ago. Security forces were bracing for more rioting by
reinforcing concrete barriers and stringing coils of razor wire across downtown
Beirut. The public prosecutor said all those detained during the previous
night's riots would be released except those with other pending cases, the
official National News Agency reported. At least 377 people were injured in
Saturday's clashes, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese Civil Defense.
More than 120 of those were treated in hospitals, including a protester who
sustained an eye injury, as well as security force members. The Internal
Security Forces said 142 of its members were injured, including 7 officers, some
with serious concussions. The clashes took place amid a rapidly worsening
financial crisis and an ongoing impasse over the formation of a new government.
The Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in late October.
Security forces and the military were girding themselves for more violence,
following protester calls for more rallies on Sunday.
Government forces blocked access to some buildings in central Beirut with razor
wire, closing off access to areas that included a popular tourist site. Workers
also welded fencing together across roadways that lead to Parliament to make it
harder for demonstrators to push through. On the quiet, rainy streets Sunday,
shopkeepers, banks and other businesses swept up broken glass and boarded up
windows. Workers at one bank took down the large sign with its name to remove
any identifier and avoid soliciting anger from protesters, who smashed the
windows and the facade of Lebanon's Banking Association headquarters with metal
bars the previous night. The demonstrators widely blame Lebanese financial
institutions, alongside government corruption, for the crippling economic
crisis. Nearby soot and ashes still littered the ground where security forces
burned the tents of the protesters' sit-in during the chaotic melee. Riot police
had fired volleys of tear gas and rubber bullets late into the night Saturday to
disperse the thousands of demonstrators. The protesters, who came from the
country's north, east and the capital itself, clubbed security forces with tree
branches and metal bars and fired flares and fireworks, while lobbing stones and
other projectiles at them. The clashes also took place on the steps of a mosque
downtown. Dar al-Fatwa called it "inappropriate" and said protesters had taken
refuge inside the mosque and were taken care of.
The pitched street battles lasted for nearly nine hours, with both protesters
and the government trading blame for the violence.
Caretaker Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan said that security forces were
ordered to protect peaceful protests. "But for the protests to turn into a
blatant attack on the security forces, public and private properties, this is
condemned and totally unacceptable," she tweeted Saturday. However, Human Rights
Watch described the security force response as "brutal" and called for an urgent
end to a "culture of impunity" for police abuse. "There was no justification for
the brutal use of force unleashed by Lebanon's riot police against largely
peaceful demonstrators in downtown Beirut," said Michael Page, deputy Middle
East director at HRW. "Riot police showed a blatant disregard for their human
rights obligations, instead launching teargas canisters at protesters' heads,
firing rubber bullets in their eyes and attacking people at hospitals and a
mosque." The protesters have been rallying against the country's political elite
who have ruled Lebanon since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. They blame
politicians for widespread corruption and mismanagement in a country that has
accumulated one of the largest debt ratios in the world. Panic and anger have
gripped the public as their local currency, pegged to the dollar for more than
two decades, plummeted. The Lebanese pound lost more than 60% of its value in
recent weeks on the black market. The economy has seen no growth and foreign
inflows dried up in the already heavily indebted country that relies on imports
for most of its basic goods. Meanwhile, banks have imposed informal capital
controls, limiting withdrawal of dollars and foreign transfers. Prime
Minister-designate Hassan Diab had been expected to announce an 18-member
Cabinet on Friday, but last minute disputes among political factions scuttled
his latest attempt.
Diab Meets with Aoun amid Reports of Imminent Govt.
Formation
Naharnet/January 19/2020
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab on Sunday met with President Michel Aoun at
the Baabda Palace. Diab left without making a statement after the 90-minute
meeting, after media reports said that the cabinet line-up could be announced on
Sunday. TV networks said the meeting was "positive" although some points remain
unresolved. March 8 sources told MTV that the line-up was not yet "ready." TV
networks meanwhile announced that the Marada Movement will not take part in the
government and that its chief Suleiman Franjieh will hold a press conference on
Tuesday. LBCI television had earlier said that “the efforts of the Shiite duo
and the other forces are witnessing a new momentum regarding the government’s
size and the number and portfolios of the ministers.”“The Shiite duo will seek
to convince PM-designate Hassan Diab to enlarge the government to 20 ministers
to resolve the obstacle related to the representation of Marada and the Syrian
Social Nationalist Party,” LBCI said. “The Shiite duo is keen on the
representation of all its allies in the government,” it added.
Aoun to preside over a security meeting tomorrow
NNA/January 19/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, is expected to head a security
meeting at noon on Monday, attended by Caretaker Ministers of National Defense,
Elias Bou Saab, and Interior and Municipalities, Raya al-Hassan, and the leaders
of the military and security apparatuses, to dwell on the prevailing security
conditions and the precautions required to address the situation.
Diab meets with Berri in Ain El-Tineh
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
The Prime Minister-designate, Hassan Diab, is currently meeting with House
Speaker, Nabih Berri, at Ain El-Tineh Palace.
Hariri says persistence of confrontations between the army,
security forces and protesters yields no solution
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri considered in a tweet on Sunday that “the
persisting confrontations between the army, security forces and the
demonstrators denote turning around in the problem, and not a solution.” “There
is a way to calm the popular storm. Stop wasting time, form a government, and
open the door for political and economic solutions,” confirmed Hariri. In a word
to the people of Tripoli and the North, Hariri regretted what was said about
bringing in young men in their name to perform acts of violence in the capital
yesterday. “I know that the dignity of Beirut is entrusted by Rafic Hariri in
you, and you are the line of defense for its safety, and the conscience of
popular movements and their kind facets,” he said, urging them to be aware of
individuals of bad influence and intentions. Hariri prayed for the safety of
Lebanon and the Lebanese, saying: “We ask the Lord Almighty to grant all the
injured speedy recovery and safety, and to spare our country the danger of
falling into sedition.”
Rahi to those obstructing the cabinet formation: You bear
the responsibility of shame and disgrace for what happened in Hamra and Beirut
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Butros al-Rahi, commented on the events
that occurred yesterday evening in Central Beirut, holding the officials who are
obstructing the government formation to blame. “You bear the responsibility of
shame and disgrace for what happened in Hamra and Beirut,” he said.
Presiding over Sunday Mass in Bkirki this morning, the Patriarch said: “If the
officials in Lebanon had an ounce of humanity, they would have rushed to form a
mini-rescue government, comprised of well-known specialists, independent of the
parties and the so-called politicians."
“Humanity is the only language that all people understand and engage in. It
fights enmity, injustice and excessive use of authority; humanity feels the pain
of the hungry, the poor, the neglected and the ill, and softens justice and
relationships in the family, the church, society and the state,” said al-Rahi.
He, thus, criticized the political officials who have abandoned their humanity
and are simply working for their narrow personal gains, by impeding the new
cabinet formation called for by young men and women who have filled the streets
and squares of Lebanon for ninety-three days, sacrificing their comfort and
shelter and bearing the frost and rain. Al-Rahi denounced the recent incidents
in Beirut, saying: “We strongly condemn all of these sabotage acts because they
do not represent our Lebanese values and customs, and we condemn those behind
them,” holding the political class responsible for the growing public debt and
the drop in GDP. Addressing the army and internal security forces, the Patriarch
appreciated their exerted efforts throughout the past period in ensuring
security and safety in all Lebanese regions, urging them “to exert more efforts
to maintain security in the cities and prevent collisions between
citizens.”Al-Rahi also called on the international community “to seriously
consider the issue of Lebanon, in light of the country’s constructive role in
the Middle East region, thanks to its unique features and characteristics."
Al-Hassan: Army Chief praised the work of the security
services, confirmed continuation of coordination to maintain order
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Raya al-Hassan, tweeted Sunday
saying: “The Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, praised the readiness and
professionalism of the Internal Security Forces’ leadership in its command and
control, and commended the work of the military and security services at this
delicate stage, appreciating their sacrifices to preserve the security of
citizens and stability, and affirming continued coordination to maintain order
and prevent infringement on property."
ISF: For maintaining demonstrations' peacefulness, since we
will be forced to deter rioters
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
The General Directorate of the Internal Security Forces renewed its call this
evening, via Twitter, on the innocent protesters to “maintain the peacefulness
of their demonstration and prevent rioters from continuing with their attacks or
move away from the place of riots,” stressing that it will be “obliged to deter
rioters and stop the attack in accordance with the law."In an earlier tweet, the
security forces had asked the demonstrators to "maintain the peaceful nature of
their demonstration and abstain from infringing on private and public property
and attacking the security forces with firecrackers, stones, and other harmful
means that would only lead to chaos and material and physical damages."
Al-Sayyid: The government still faces obstacles
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
MP Jamil al-Sayyid tweeted Sunday on the government formation issue, saying:
“Contrary to what is being circulated, the government is still facing obstacles.
Hezbollah has done everything it can to reconcile between the parties, first to
persuade Saad Hariri and then with Hassan Diab…As long as no one is ready to
sacrifice for the sake of the people and the country, I think it is time for the
resistance to shake this political dirt off its hands and leave it in the hands
of its owners!"
El-Machnouk: For early presidential and parliamentary
elections and a technocrat government
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
In an issued statement on Sunday, MP Nohad El-Machnouk called for holding early
presidential and parliamentary elections and forming a technocrat government.
“The only temporary solution available to all political forces is to support the
formation of a government of technocrats that does not resemble the previous
government, in which the Free Patriotic Movement possessed the one-third veto
power…and to hold early presidential elections that would end the stage of
breaking the accord, destroying balance and detonating stability in
Lebanon…which would later open the door for a sane electoral law and early
parliamentary elections,” he asserted. Machnouk praised the Internal Security
Forces and Lebanese Army units for their exerted efforts in maintaining security
and safety, deeming that “the army and security forces are not responsible for
the deviation of the political class, nor for the monetary crisis nor the delay
in forming the government, nor in bringing the country to where it is
today."“The scene in downtown Beirut last night was painful, where we saw poor
people fighting with other poor, angry and bankrupt people just like them….while
those responsible for the monetary, financial and economic crisis are carrying
on their series of forming the government, with the money of the Lebanese that
continues to bleed with every delay in formation,” Machnouk underlined. He
concluded by vowing that “Beirut will return, shinning with its people, no
matter the harm caused by the formation parties, and the government will see the
light without a one-third veto power.”
Jumblatt: Beirut deserves not this treatment!
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, regretted Sunday the
incidents that occurred in the capital yesterday, saying via his Twitter
account: "Beirut, from Hamra to Mar Elias to the city’s center, does not deserve
this treatment that embeds its destruction somewhat.”
“Dialogue alone must prevail between the political forces, whatever their
disagreement,” stressed Jumblatt. “Yes to the peaceful demonstration as it was
during the first days of the movement, and no to violence from any party,” he
added, reminding that the security man is part of the people and shares their
sufferings.
Kouyoumjian: Method of rule is responsible
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Caretaker Social Affairs Minister, Richard Kouyoumjian, regretted in a tweet
Sunday the prevailing situation in the country, saying: “It’s an abhorring scene
of your dividing of shares while the country is collapsing financially and
economically, and your promised government has already lost, in advance, local
and international confidence.”“Your method of rule is responsible for what is
happening since it does not simulate reality, thus resulting in the reaction of
angry and destitute people,” he said. “The dreams of the Lebanese for change
will turn into nightmares that will rein in on your sleep and curse you
forever," warned Kouyoumjian.
Red Cross: 169 cases were transferred to hospitals as a
result of the events in Central Beirut
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
In a statement issued by the Lebanese Red Cross on Sunday, it indicated that
"following the incidents that occurred yesterday afternoon and lasted till the
evening, between the security forces and demonstrators in Central Beirut, the
Lebanese Red Cross teams, including 18 ambulances and about 80 paramedics,
backed by a central operations room with 6 paramedics, responded to the urgent
appeals.” “The Red Cross recorded 169 casualties that were transferred to nearby
hospitals, of which 80 were transported by the Red Cross,” the statement added.
“The Red Cross teams provided first aid on site for about 140 casualties, which
varied between shortness of breath, fractures, fatigue, and wounds, while the
remaining proximity centers were mobilized to respond to calls and intervene
when necessary, in addition to the Spears Blood Transfusion Center which was
ready to provide blood units upon demand," the statement concluded.
Lebanon: Three Months of Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Lebanon has been paralyzed by three months of protests demanding an overhaul of
the entire political system. Here is a recap of the unrest, after almost 400
people are wounded in clashes over the weekend, the highest such tally since the
start of the anti-establishment demonstrations:
'WhatsApp tax' anger
On October 17, the government announces a tax on messaging applications,
including WhatsApp, which is popular because of high telephony charges.Coming
amid a looming economic crisis, many see the plan as a step too far. Thousands
take to the streets in Beirut and other cities, some chanting "the people demand
the fall of the regime". The government scraps the tax on messaging applications
the same day, but protests continue.
Demos grow
On October 18, thousands of demonstrators representing different sects and
political affiliations bring the capital to a standstill. They demand an
overhaul of the political system, citing grievances from austerity measures and
state corruption to poor infrastructure and regular electricity cuts.
Demonstrations swell over the following days and dozens are arrested.
Reforms announced
On October 21, Prime Minister Saad Hariri announces his government has approved
a raft of economic reforms, including halving salaries for lawmakers and
ministers. But demonstrators dismiss the new measures as insufficient. On
October 25, Hizbullah -- which with its allies holds a majority in parliament --
tells supporters not to take part in protests.
The next day, Hizbullah mobilizes counter-rallies, sparking scuffles with
anti-government demonstrators.
Government resigns
On the evening of October 29, Hariri submits his resignation and that of his
government, prompting celebrations in the streets.
President Michel Aoun asks the government to stay on until a new cabinet is
formed. Protesters regroup over the coming days, demanding a new government of
technocrats, independent of traditional political parties divided along
sectarian lines.In a television address on November 3, Aoun announces plans to
tackle corruption, reform the economy and form a new government including
technical experts. But thousands of protesters stream back into Beirut's
Martyrs' Square, chanting "Revolution!"
Foreign aid appeal rebuffed
On December 11 at a Paris conference, France, the United States, Russia and
other countries rebuff Lebanon's urgent aid appeal, making assistance
conditional on the formation of a new reform-minded government. Hariri also asks
the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for support in drawing up a
rescue plan.
Violence intensifies
On December 14 and 15 dozens of people are wounded and security forces use tear
gas and rubber bullets to disperse demonstrators.
Dozens more are wounded on December 17, in dawn clashes between security forces
and supporters of Hizbullah and AMAL.
New prime minister
On December 19, the president finally names a new prime minister: little-known
academic Hassan Diab, who is backed by Hizbullah. Protesters immediately regroup
to condemn the appointment, which outrages members of the Sunni community.
Protests continue the following day with roads blocked across the country.
Escalation in Beirut
On January 11, 2020, protests resume after a pause over the holidays. Days later
clashes take place in Beirut and several banks are vandalized. On January 17
violence breaks out after dozens of protesters throw rocks and large plant pots
at police guarding a road leading to parliament while others charge police
lines. And the next day, in what is the heaviest toll since the protests began,
at least 377 people -- both demonstrators and members of the security forces --
are rushed to hospital or treated at the scene.
Hariri Urges New Govt., Calls on Tripoli Protesters to Shun
Violence
Naharnet/January 19/2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday called on the parties forming the
new cabinet to speed up the process in order to "calm the popular storm," as he
urged protesters hailing from Tripoli and the North to shun violence and
preserve "Beirut's dignity."
“We feared for Beirut yesterday, but as usual, it has stitched the wounds of its
sons from the ranks of the security forces and protesters and removed from its
face the remains of anger, rioting and the smoke of blazes,” Hariri tweeted,
referring to Saturday’s fierce clashes in Beirut between protesters and security
forces. “We plead to God for the recovery and safety of all those wounded and
for sparing our country the threat of descending into strife,” Hariri added.
Addressing the parties forming the new government, the caretaker PM said “there
is a way to calm the popular storm.”
“Stop wasting time, form the government and open the door to political and
economic solutions. Keeping the army, security forces and protesters in a state
of confrontation prolongs the problem and is not a solution,” Hariri said. He
added: “The last word is addressed to my people in Tripoli and the North: it
saddens me when it is said that young men have been brought in your name to
carry out yesterday’s acts of violence.”“But I know that Rafik Hariri had
entrusted you with Beirut’s dignity and that you are the line of defense for its
safety, the conscience of the popular protests and their good face. Beware of
bad company and pay attention to what the gloaters are saying about the sabotage
of the capital,” Hariri went on to say.
Lebanon: Hariri Calls for Govt. Formation Following Night
of Riots
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 19 January, 2020
Lebanon's outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri called Sunday on politicians to
save time and form a new government. He urged officials to find solutions for
the country's economic crisis, after a night of violent clashes between security
forces and protesters.
"There is a roadmap to calm the popular storm. Stop wasting time, form a
government, open the door to political and economic solutions," Hariri said in a
tweet. Meanwhile, Lebanon's public prosecutor ordered the release of 34 people
who were detained Saturday during night clashes, as protesters called for more
rallies on Sunday. Riot police fired tear gas and rubber bullets on Saturday to
disperse thousands of protesters who rallied outside the parliament and in
downtown Beirut. The protesters responded by attacking the security forces with
metal bars, stones and tree branches.
Clashes in lasted for almost nine hours with hundreds injured. Protesters
smashed windows and the facade of the headquarters of the country's Banking
Association with metal bars, as security forces set fire to a few tents set up
by protesters nearby, the Associated Press (AP) reported. For her part, Interior
Minister Raya El Hassan said Saturday that security forces were ordered to
protect peaceful protests. “But for the protests to turn into a blatant attack
on the security forces and public and private properties, this is condemned and
totally unacceptable," she said in a tweet.
Human Rights Watch described the security force response as “brutal" and called
for an urgent end to a “culture of impunity” for police abuse. “There was no
justification for the brutal use of force unleashed by Lebanon’s riot police
against largely peaceful demonstrators in downtown Beirut," said Michael Page,
deputy Middle East director at HRW. “Riot police showed a blatant disregard for
their human rights obligations, instead launching teargas canisters at
protesters’ heads, firing rubber bullets in their eyes and attacking people at
hospitals and a mosque.”Meanwhile, Lebanese rescuers treated more than 300
people for injuries on Saturday. It was the highest toll in some of the most
intense violence since largely peaceful protests erupted across the country in
October, Reuters reported. However, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese
Civil Defense the number of those injured reached at least 377, with more than
120 of those treated in hospitals. Protesters have rallied against the country's
political elite who have ruled Lebanon since the end of the 1975-90 civil war.
The protesters blame politicians for widespread corruption and mismanagement in
a country that has accumulated one of the largest debt ratios in the world.
Lebanon’s Hariri: ‘stop wasting time’ in government talks,
economic solutions
Reuters, Beirut/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday urged politicians to
urgently form a new government and find solutions for the country’s economic
crisis, after a night of violent clashes between security forces and protesters.
“There is a roadmap to calm the popular storm. Stop wasting time, form a
government, open the door to political and economic solutions,” tweeted Hariri,
who resigned as prime minister in October under pressure from a wave of
protests. “To keep the army, security forces, and protesters in a state of
confrontation is to circle inside the problem,” he said.
Bassil 'Accepts' Proposal from Diab on Seat Distribution
Naharnet/January 19/2020
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab has made a new initiative towards Free
Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil through the mediator Shadi Masaad in
order to speed up the formation of the new government, media reports said. An-Nahar
newspaper said Diab has proposed replacing the candidate for the deputy PM post
Amal Haddad with Petra Khoury, in addition to naming Ayman Haddad as economy
minister and merging the defense and energy portfolios and allotting them to
Raimond Ghajar. “This means the exclusion of the candidate for the defense
portfolio Michel Menassa as well as Amal Haddad, and in this way Bassil would
not get a sixth minister,” An-Nahar said. According to information obtained by
the daily, Bassil has accepted the proposal on the condition of the consent of
the parties who had objections – the Marada Movement and the Syrian Social
Nationalist Party.“Intensive contacts are underway away from the media spotlight
and any progress regarding this proposal might lead to breaking the deadlock
over the government formation,” the newspaper said, citing sources.
Lebanon to release protesters detained after night of riots
The Associated Press, Beirut/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Lebanon's public prosecutor ordered the release Sunday of more than 30 people
detained the previous evening, according to the National State News agency, in
the worst day of violence since protests erupted three months ago. The public
prosecutor said all 34 arrested are to be released, except those other pending
cases. The clashes took place amid the backdrop of a rapidly worsening financial
crisis and an ongoing impasse over the formation of a new government. The
Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in late October.
Protesters have called for more rallies on Sunday.
Lebanon’s ‘week of rage’ ends in violent clashes
Lauren Lewis, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 19 January 2020
The Mohammad al-Amin Mosque in downtown Beirut opened its doors to every
religion and sect for evening prayer on Sunday to condemn yesterday's violence
by police and army that left 400 protesters injured overnight.
The situation at the mosque turned tense with a massive military parade of
commanders, including armored vehicles, guns, and military personnel being
deployed. The parade took place as the call to prayer began. Anti-riot police
fired tear gas at tear gas at the protesters who were also seen throwing stones.
The weekend clashes were the worst since the protests began in October over
rising popular frustration with a political class that is struggling to contain
a growing economic crisis.
The government sent mixed signals about the unrest, with President Michel Aoun
calling on the army and security forces to “preserve the safety of peaceful
protesters and prevent vandalism” while Interior Minister Raya El Hassan
defended the right to peaceful protest and condemned attacks on security forces
and property. Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri termed the clashes “crazy,
suspicious, and unacceptable.”Clashes started outside Parliament in central
Beirut on Saturday afternoon, but later spread across the city.
According to the French news agency AFP, 337 people were injured, including 80
who were admitted to hospital. Several protestors were arrested; Instagram
channels that monitor the protests released names of those incarcerated
overnight.
Many wearing crash helmets and gas masks, protestors launched fireworks and
rocks at police. In turn, the Lebanese Army forced them away from the downtown
area, after some people used tennis rackets to volley the tear gas canisters
back toward the authorities.
This week’s events have seen a return to road closures and burning tires on a
scale not seen since October. Protesters have returned to the streets in full
force denouncing government failures to address the worsening economic crisis.
“Now it’s a genuine matter of survival,” 21-year-old student, Omar told Al
Arabiya English. “We need to make really good financial decisions if we want to
live properly.”
Omar, who is hoping to graduate in the spring, said he would have to use money
intended for his university fees to cover his living costs. If this happens, the
American University of Beirut student will need a bank loan. “But right now, it
is really scary to go to a bank to try and get a loan,” Omar said. Banks have
imposed strict restrictions on people trying to withdraw their savings in an
attempt to prevent a financial collapse. Omar has been out protesting every
night this week in an attempt to force politicians to make changes.
“We’ve been on the streets since October and nothing has changed, we have to
keep going,” he said. “We need to target the banks. We want our money back.”This
wave of protests comes as Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab is facing further
obstructions in forming his 18-member cabinet, and the country temporarily lost
its right to vote in the UN because of a late payment. Diab, who was designated
to be the next Prime Minister in mid-December, has moved away from a
technocratic government in a potential line-up that was leaked on Thursday. “The
guy who is in charge of forming the government, he is in a really good position
right now to change everything in Lebanon,” Omar says. “It’s a matter of him
making a decision.”However, Saturday’s clashes appeared to have made that
decision for him, with protesters denouncing him on the streets. “He screwed
up,” one female masked protester told Al Arabiya English last night on condition
of anonymity. Despite a desperate need for a new government to stop the
deepening economic crisis, protesters are refusing to accept anything less than
their demands for a leadership of technocratic experts.“We have been asking for
a government of technocrats since October,” she said. “It’s a simple demand but
all they do is ignore us, and now they attack us.”
Rubber Bullets, Tear Gas, Water Cannons Fired at
Stone-Throwing Protesters in Beirut
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Security forces on Sunday fired rubber bullets, tear gas, pepper spray and water
cannons at stone-throwing protesters in central Beirut, a day after almost 400
people were injured in the fiercest clashes yet in the protests that have been
rocking the country since October 17.
At least four people were injured by rubber bullets, including Al-Jazeera
reporter Ihab al-Oqdeh and al-Jadeed cameraman Mohammed al-Samra. The Lebanese
Red Cross said ten people were wounded by 7:00 pm. Some protesters had charged
at riot police with metallic barriers and rods. Some of them later started
hurling stones and firecrackers at riot police guarding Nejmeh Square. Hundreds
of anti-government protesters had converged on the center of the capital Sunday
afternoon despite the rainy weather. Nearby, the army’s Commando Regiment
deployed heavily with dozens of vehicles and troops, some of whom were carrying
shoulder-fired missile launchers. "Revolutionaries, free people, we will
complete this path," some protesters chanted, some wearing colorful waterproof
ponchos or clutching umbrellas. A protester called Mazen said he and others were
"fed up with politicians.""After three months of revolution, they have proven to
us that they don't change, don't listen, and have nothing to give," the
34-year-old said. Protesters have demanded a new government be comprised solely
of independent experts, and exclude all established political parties they
accuse of being motivated by personal and partisan gains. The World Bank has
warned the poverty rate in Lebanon could rise from a third to half of the
population if the political crisis is not resolved soon.
Protesters back on Beirut streets after overnight bid to
storm parliament
Arab News/January 19/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanese protesters took to the streets again on Sunday after
unprecedented overnight violence in Beirut in which nearly 400 people were
injured. Security forces fired water cannon at young men hurling stones outside
parliament. Protesters chanting “Revolution” tried to climb over barbed wire and
fencing to storm the building. Security forces urged people to remain calm, or
they would be forced back. “We’re not scared. This is all for our future and our
children,” said protester Bassam Taleb. “The country is frozen. The state is not
doing a thing, they’re a bunch of thieves. And if you have money in the bank,
you can’t even get a hundred dollars out.”One protester taunted security forces
with a flame-throwing aerosol, as others shone bright green laser lights in
their direction. Anti-riot forces responded with water cannon, tear gas and
rubber bullets. The new violence followed a five-hour confrontation between
protesters and security forces near parliament on Saturday night. Demonstrators
tried to penetrate a security fence and iron barriers to reach parliament,
lobbing firecrackers and anything else they could find including traffic lights,
tree branches, manhole covers and tiles. Security forces retaliated with water
cannons and tear gas, and the Lebanese army was contacted for backup. Lebanon
has been experiencing unrest since October, when people took to the streets to
protest against corruption, the political elite and economic hardship. But
Saturday night’s demonstrations were the most violent so far and there is no
indication that public anger is abating.Saad Hariri stepped down as prime
minister on Oct. 29 but has remained in a caretaker capacity. Hisnominated
successor, Hassan Diab, has been unable to form a government amid sectarian
political squabbling. Hariri said: “There is a way to calm the storm. Stop
wasting time, form a government, and open the door for political and economic
solutions. Having the army, security forces, and protesters in constant
confrontation is going in circles, not finding a solution.”
Violence Predominates Confrontations Between Protesters,
Security Forces in Beirut
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/January 19/2020
Last night, Downtown Beirut turned into an arena for an intense confrontation
between protesters and security forces trying to disperse them and preventing
them from entering parliament. In unprecedented clashes, protesters used tree
trunks and street sign poles to attack security forces who, in turn, responded
by using water hoses and tear gas bombs, leading to more than 100 injuries. In
the most violent confrontation the city has witnessed since the start of the
protests on October 17, marches were launched from several points in Beirut
under the slogan: “We will not pay the price”, in protest of the delays in the
formation of the government. The protesters attempted to break through the
security fence and metallic barriers to reach the parliament but were prevented
by the security forces which closed the entrance with metallic barriers. This
compelled protesters to attack the anti-riot police human wall. They later threw
rocks and flower vases at the security forces. A number of protesters also
uprooted young trees and street sign poles and used them to attack security
forces. Security forces responded by shooting water and teargas to disperse
them. The Internal Security Forces tweeted that “the anti-riot police are being
violently and directly attacked at one of the entrances to parliament.
Consequently, we ask the peaceful protesters to steer clear of the riots for
their own safety”. The National News Agency mentioned that the confrontations
had escalated, and some people were using fireworks and a Molotov bomb while
protecting themselves with the glass front that they had removed from one of the
shops as well as tree trunks. With increasing tension, the confrontation moved
to the Martyrs’ Square and extended to the Saifi area while the ISF spread and
deployed close to Le Gray, forming a human wall to isolate protesters. This was
followed by reinforcements by the Lebanese Army that also spread in the area.
The ISF stated that the rioters removed tiles from columns, broke them into
smaller pieces, and threw them at the anti-riot police. It also mentioned that
some anti-riot police members suffered several injuries, some were treated on
the field while others were transferred to hospitals. The ISF denied claims that
they had burned down the protesters’ tents in Martyrs’ Square. After the Red
Cross stated that five teams were tending to the injured and transferring them
to nearby hospitals, they announced an initial report indicating that 40 cases
were treated on the field while 30 others were transported to hospitals. The
unprecedented protest movement in Lebanon regained its momentum after entering
its 4th month this week after protesters attacked banks and broke their fronts
in protest of the severe restrictions on depositors amid the worst economic
crisis Lebanon has ever faced. The ISF responded by using excessive force, even
against journalists, which was condemned by activists and human rights
organizations.
Israel to build anti-tunnel sensor network along Lebanon
border
Reuters, Jerusalem/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Israel’s military announced on Sunday the start of construction of an
underground network of sensors along the Lebanese frontier to detect any
cross-border tunnel building. The project is getting under way a year after the
Israeli military said it had destroyed a series of infiltration tunnels dug by
the Lebanese Hezbollah group. “All the drilling is being done on the Israeli
side of the blue line,” military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jonathan Conricus,
referring to the border demarcation with Lebanon, said in a conference call with
journalists. He said the planned Israeli network “was not a wall” but seismic
and acoustic sensors buried in the ground. Israel had informed UN peacekeepers
in south Lebanon about the work “to make sure everybody knows what we are doing
and that we are operating on the Israeli side” of the border, Conricus said. He
said deployment of the network was beginning on Sunday at Misgav Am, an Israeli
border community, and drilling there could go on for up to two months, Conricus
said. “The overall plan is to expand the location of the sensors and place them
at additional locations along the blue line,” Conricus said, without giving an
end-date for construction. “This is a precautionary measure,” he said. “Our
current assessment is that there are no cross-border attack tunnels.”Israel and
Iranian-backed Hezbollah last fought a war in 2006.
Afiouni: Heart-breaking, offensive, suspicious and rejected
scenes of violence
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Caretaker State Minister for Investment and Technology Affairs, Adel Afiouni,
tweeted Sunday evening on the recent events in the capital, Beirut, saying: "The
scenes of violence are heart-rending, offensive, suspicious, and rejected.”“But
how did we get here?” questioned Afiouni, adding, “Ninety-five days have passed
with the people in the streets voicing their logical, rightful and peaceful
demands for a government of independent specialists who can address the crisis
with efficiency and integrity…Yet, we remain without a government nor rescue
plan, but with vacuum, quotas, and a deteriorating situation.”“The people are
suffering, and are losing their patience….Their anger is rightful and will spare
no one,” underlined Afiouni.
Three young men reported missing in Harabta outskirts,
search operations continue
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Three young men have gone missing during a hunting trip in the outskirts of the
town of Harabta in the district of Baalbek, NNA correspondent reported on
Sunday. Search operations are still underway by the army and civil defense
units, in cooperation with the townsmen to find the missing young men, namely
Hassan Khazaal, Imad Khazaal and Ali al-Attar. Their families appealed to the
President of the Republic and the Army Command to send aircrafts to help the
rescue teams that are facing great difficulties, in light of the worsening
weather conditions on the highlands.
Raad: Whether you participate or not in the government, you
are concerned and we will not let you be!
NNA/Naharnet/January 19/2020
"We want to form a government to boost the constitution, and we seek dialogue
between all components of the Lebanese society, despite our major comments on
all the policies that have led us, since decades, to where we are today," said
Head of the "Loyalty to Resistance" Parliamentary Bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, on
Sunday. Speaking during a memorial ceremony in the town of Adloun earlier today,
Raad criticized those who say they will not partake in the government, thus
fleeing responsibility. “It it is forbidden to escape and relinquish
responsibilities…Whether you participate or not in the government, you are
concerned, and we will not leave you alone...This country is our country and
your country, and for the past thirty years, you have been scooping its good
resources…and today, you are abandoning your duty and leaving the people on
their own,” he said. “We are with the people’s movement, but if we actually
participated in it, then civil war would have been knocking on our doors by
now,” Raad went on. On the prevailing economic crisis, Raad said reassuringly:
“We are all troubled by the financial and monetary policy, but do not despair,
because it is a transient economic crisis."
Syria’s invisible hand in Lebanon confronts Iran’s allies
Basem Shabb/The National/January 19/2020
Prime Minister designate Hassan Diab appears to be standing up to Hezbollah and
their allies, who nominated him, to the advantage of other pro-Syrian figures
Since October 17, a nationwide uprising took Lebanese by storm, forcing then
prime minister Saad Hariri and his Cabinet to step down. In December,
Iran-backed Hezbollah and its ally, the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, or
FPM, were duped into naming Dr Hassan Diab, a Sunni academic, as prime minister
designate. It is the prime minister designate's duty by law to form the Cabinet
but acting foreign minister and head of the FPM, Gebran Bassil mistakenly
thought he could impose his preferred nominees on a relatively unknown prime
minister and divide the spoils with Hezbollah.
Much to the dismay of Mr Bassil, Mr Diab appears bent on forming a government of
unaffiliated experts, in compliance with the demands of protesters. Mr Diab has
challenged Mr Bassil as well as his father-in-law Lebanese President Michel Aoun,
with active support from pro-Syrian politicians, most notably member of
parliament Jamil Al Sayyed. Other pro-Syrian factions voiced their demands to be
represented in the new government, effectively competing with the FPM for the
next Cabinet's 18 ministries.
A month ago, it seemed unlikely that Mr Diab could stand up to Mr Aoun and Mr
Bassil in favour of pro-Syrian groups. Yet this is exactly what he has done
It seems that Mr Diab, far from being weak and isolated, has considerable
support from Pro-Syrian factions opposed to Mr Hariri. Grand Mufti Abdul Latif
Darian and other Sunni dignitaries have refrained from criticising Mr Diab,
avoiding the thorny issue of his legitimacy within the community.
More importantly, the Saudi leadership has yet to take a position on Mr Diab,
which may indicate that they are ready to give him a chance. Syrian President
Bashar Al Assad has yet to comment on the situation but Druze politician Wiam
Wahhab, one of Syria's closest allies in Lebanon, has indicated he was the one
to suggest Mr Diab for the position of prime minister. The Russians first
endorsed Mr Hariri but after Mr Diab was officially nominated, they have assumed
a neutral stance. Western powers are closely watching as Lebanese politicians
bicker while the economy is in free fall.
Ordinary Lebanese are struggling to cope with the deep recession yet Hezbollah
is only concerned with consolidating its power in government while the FPM is
preoccupied with the issue of presidential succession. Other players such as
parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, and Mr Jumblatt are worried about the return
of Syrian influence in Lebanon. Mr Diab’s intransigence poses a threat to
traditional politicians. So much so that Mr Bassil now sees common cause with Mr
Berri.
Since the end of the Syrian occupation in 2005, Damascus' influence in Lebanon
had dwindled considerably. During the 2018 parliamentary elections, it was
mainly channelled through its support of Hezbollah. In the years leading up to
the occupation, the FPM was dismissive of Syria and Mr Bassil did not bother
with diplomatic niceties, often citing collaboration with congressman Eliot
Engle to pass the Syria Act in Congress in 2004. Why bother when Hezbollah was
calling all the shots?
But times have changed. In October last year, Mr Bassil said he was willing to
meet Mr Al Assad in Damascus. Since 2006, the FPM has struck a heinous alliance
with Hezbollah. And while a few years ago, the Syrian regime seems doomed to
collapsed, it is now bolstered by Russia and controls most of the nation's
territory. Several Arab countries are vying for better ties with Mr Al Assad,
after having lost hope in the capacity of Lebanon's anti-Iranian block to curb
Tehran's influence.
A month ago, it seemed unlikely that a Sunni academic with little Sunni support
could stand up to Mr Aoun and his son-in-law Mr Bassil, in favour of pro-Syrian
groups. Yet this is exactly what Mr Diab has done. For once the "axis of
resistance" cannot blame the US or scapegoat Syrian refugees for the current
impasse. Bickering among different factions within the alliance, who oppose Mr
Diab, has stalled government formation.
Russia has so far stood on the sidelines in Lebanon but, if pressured, Moscow is
more likely to side with Damascus rather than with a non-state actor such as
Hezbollah.
The US may also face a dilemma as it disengages from the region. Hezbollah is
starting to face increasing limitations to its political ascendancy in Lebanon,
not only due to a months-long popular uprising and American sanctions. It also
has to contend with the return of Syrian influence and rivalries between its
allies. Syria may not be able to call the shots just yet, but its presence can
no longer be ignored.
*Dr Basem Shabb is a former member of parliament in Lebanon
My observation on the serious recent developments in
Lebanon
Robert Rabil/January 20/2020
Based on correspondence with activists and officials, the following is my
observation on the serious recent developments in Lebanon.
Lebanon is fast approaching a failed state status, reaching the precipice of
economic bankruptcy, social disruption and civil strife.
The recent altercations between the LAF-ISF and demonstrators are extremely
dangerous as they have already created a dangerous gap between the two. This has
to stop immediately for the two entities are both needed for political
transition and stability.
The LAF-ISF has committed violent acts against the demonstrators who some of
them have intentionally provoked the LAF. The LAF-ISF is under immense pressure
by political parties other than Hezbollah and allies. Their actions cannot be
separated from the political leadership and their allies who are maneuvering to
protect their leadership and counteract Hezbollah’s machinations. Lest be
forgotten, Hariri has influence with and over Internal Security, which has been
harsh with protesters.
Yet LAF core is apprehensive of the deepening gap between them and
demonstrators. They believe their acquiescence to political leadership is a
necessary evil to prevent splitting the army (including a coup d’etat) or
leading to open confrontation with Hezbollah and other parties.
The LAF behavior should be monitored and documented; but also the behavior of
demonstrators should reflect the aspiration of the bulk of the peaceful
population. It’s hard to control angry people and those intent on creating
strife. Yet demonstrators should remain peaceful in withstanding the vagaries of
their revolution. The revolution cannot and should not be militarized and/or
turn violent. This is tantamount to suicide and/or making Hezbollah dream come
true.
There are already voices on social media calling for violence deeming that a
revolution cannot succeed without blood. This is wrong and immature. Let’s not
forget Ghandi led a non-violent liberation movement against a great empire.
Revolution has many great leaders but it does not have a leadership to provide
and implement strategy and discipline. Despite its appeal and rightful demands,
Revolution has thus far underestimated the political parties in Lebanon that
monopolized power and patronage. Removing them (Kullun) is easier said than
done, especially without a unified leadership and strategy.
At this time, I deem it essential for the leaders of the revolution to partner
with retired army officers who have been supporting the revolution.
A leadership combining civil activists/leaders and honorable retired officers is
essential to narrow the dangerous gap between the LAF and demonstrators.
Generals Khalil Helou, Chamel Roukoz, George Ghanem, among others could play
profound roles in securing stability and political transition.
Strategic priority should focus on early elections. Phalange, Lebanese Forces
have publicly called for early elections. Efforts must be made to bring first
Harriri and Jumblatt on board in principle and practice, then on Bassil who will
follow suit, given his recent disposition. It will be then difficult for
Hezbollah to object. Some demonstrators and politicians should be careful about
inviting a Russian role. True, the Trump administration is overtaken by
impeachment, yet Washington has been the main supporter of army and peaceful
demonstration. Do not overestimate or underestimate Washington.
Social media has been both a blessing and a curse. It allowed unprecedented
swift and broad communication; yet it created a platform for nutcases and
misinformation, which does not help the revolution. Also Plethora of SM emotions
need to inspire perseverance and not acts of vengeance.
Kudo for the demonstrators whose grievances, courage and aspiration for better
Lebanon created this unprecedented non-sectarian, reformist movement to stifle
endemic corruption and patronage. Yet your path will be hardly navigated
violently and/or without strategy and leadership. RR
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 19-20/2020
Russian sources: Moscow gave Iran the high
precision tech for missiles that struck US bases in Iraq
DEBKAfile/January 19/2020
The high precision technology accounting for the astonishing accuracy of Iran’s
missile strike on the US Ain Al Asad air base in Iraq on Jan. 8 came from
Moscow, say Russian media quoting local military sources. They name the
technology as the GLONASS global navigation system, which corresponds to the
American GPS, and had the effect of reducing the Iranian missiles’ targeting
error to just 10 meters. The same sources report that the Iranians launched
altogether 19 missiles against the Ain al Asad base n western Iraq, of which 17
struck dead center of their targets. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that
the accuracy of impact amazed US and Israel intelligence, which had not been
aware of this Iranian capacity. Its significance is such that – whether provided
by Russia or self-made – Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles can reach any
point in the Middle East that is unprotected by effective anti-missile systems
within a 700km radius. Still defending Russia’s downing of the Ukrainian
airliner, killing all 176 people aboard, hours after the Iranian attacks on US
bases in Iraq, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed there were “at least six
F-35 fighters in the air in the Iranian border area at the time” when Iranian
forces “were braced for some kind of US military retaliation.” Lavrov did not
say whether the planes belonged to the US air force or Israel.
Bodies of Ukrainian victims of Iran plane crash returned
home
Reuters, Kiev/Sunday, 19 January 2020
The bodies of the 11 Ukrainian citizens who died when a passenger plane was
accidentally shot down by Iran this month were brought back to Ukraine on Sunday
in a solemn ceremony at Kiev airport. All 176 on board the Ukraine International
Airlines flight from Tehran to Kiev were killed when the Boeing 737-800 was shot
down on January 8, at a time when Iran was on high alert for a US attack. Most
of those on board were Iranians or dual nationals. Canada had 57 citizens on
board. Nine of the Ukrainian citizens were crew members. With President
Volodymyr Zelenskiy looking on, coffins draped in the Ukrainian flag were
carried one by one from a Ukrainian military plane to a waiting hearse at Kiev’s
Boryspil airport. Soldiers held up flags to represent the different
nationalities of those who died. Relatives came to the airport carrying bunches
of flowers. Airline staff, some in tears, were waiting on the tarmac. Iran
backtracked it's decision to send the black boxes to Ukraine to be decoded.
Iranian representatives are expected to travel to Ukraine this coming week. The
plane disaster sparked unrest in Iran and added to international pressure on the
country as it grapples with a long running dispute with the United States over
its nuclear program and its influence in the region that briefly erupted into
open conflict this month.
France’s Macron says presence of foreign
fighters in Libya must end immediately
Reuters/Sunday, 19 January 2020
The presence of Syrian and other foreign forces in Tripoli must end immediately,
French President Emmanuel Macron will say in a speech to be delivered to a Libya
peace conference on Sunday. The United Nations should negotiate truce terms in
Libya without either of the warring parties setting pre-conditions, Macron said
in the speech seen by Reuters. The speech makes no mention of an advance toward
Tripoli by the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar or a halt in
oil output.
Canada says there are no firm plans for downloading black
boxes from crashed jet
Reuters/Sunday, 19 January 2020
There are still no firm plans for downloading the cockpit and flight data from a
Ukrainian airliner which was shot down by Iran 10 days ago, Canada’s
Transportation Safety Board (TSB) said on Sunday.
The TSB said in a statement that two of its crash investigators had left Tehran
earlier on Sunday after a six-day visit during which they examined the wreckage.
A total of 176 people died in the disaster, 57 of them Canadian citizens.
Iran Warns of Repercussions for IAEA over European Moves
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 19/2020
Iran's parliamentary speaker on Sunday warned of unspecified repercussions for
the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog if European nations that launched a dispute
mechanism against the Islamic republic act "unfairly." Britain, France and
Germany launched a process last week charging Iran with failing to observe the
terms of the 2015 deal curtailing its nuclear program, while Tehran accuses the
bloc of inaction over U.S. sanctions. The EU three insisted they remained
committed to the agreement, which has already been severely undermined by the US
exit from it in 2018 and its reimposition of unilateral sanctions on key sectors
of Iran's economy. "What the three European countries did regarding Iran's
nuclear issue... is unfortunate," parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani was quoted
as saying by state news agency IRNA. "We clearly announce that if Europe, for
any reason, uses Article 37 of the nuclear agreement unfairly, then Iran will
make a serious decision regarding cooperation with the agency," he said,
referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since May 2019, Iran
has progressively scaled back some commitments under the agreement in response
to the US sanctions and Europe's inability to circumvent them.
It has stressed, however, that they can be reversed if Tehran's interests are
realised. Iran's latest and final step in January entailed forgoing the limit on
the number of machines used to make uranium more potent. The 2015 nuclear deal
-- known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- was struck in
Vienna by Iran, the EU three, the United States, China and Russia.
It has a provision that allows a party to claim significant non-compliance by
another party before a joint commission. Articles 36 and 37 of the deal say if
the issue is not resolved by the commission, it then goes to an advisory board
and eventually to the UN Security Council, which could reimpose sanctions.
The decision to begin the so-called dispute mechanism process comes as tensions
soar between the West and Iran following the killing of top commander Qasem
Soleimani in a US air strike, and the admission by Tehran days later that it had
accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner.
"The issue is not Iran's behavior," said the parliamentary speaker. "It is
America's threats that have pushed a powerful European country to a humiliating
and unjust" position, said Larijani. Germany confirmed last week that the United
States had been threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on European cars if
the bloc continued to back the nuclear deal.
Iran backtracks on plan to send flight recorders to Ukraine
The Associated Press, Tehran/Sunday, 19 January 2020
The Iranian official leading the investigation into the Ukrainian jetliner that
was accidentally shot down by the Revolutionary Guard appeared to backtrack
Sunday on plans to send the flight recorders abroad for analysis, a day after
saying they would be sent to Kyiv. Hassan Rezaeifar was quoted by the state-run
IRNA news agency as saying “the flight recorders from the Ukrainian Boeing are
in Iranian hands and we have no plans to send them out.” He said Iran is working
to recover the data and cabin recordings, and that it may send the flight
recorders - commonly known as black boxes - to Ukraine or France. “But as of
yet, we have made no decision.” The same official was quoted by the
semi-official Tasnim news agency on Saturday as saying the recorders would be
sent to Ukraine, where French, American and Canadian experts would help analyze
them. Iranian officials previously said the black boxes were damaged but are
usable. It was not immediately possible to reconcile the conflicting accounts.
Iran may be hesitant to turn over the recorders for fear that more details from
the crash - including the harrowing 20 seconds between when the first and second
surface-to-air missiles hit the plane - will come to light.
The Guard’s air defenses shot the plane down shortly after it took off from
Tehran on Jan. 8, killing all 176 people on board. Hours earlier, the Guard had
launched ballistic missiles at US troops in Iraq in response to the US airstrike
that killed Iran’s top general in Baghdad. Officials say lower-level officers
mistook the plane for a US cruise missile. Iranian officials initially said the
crash was caused by a technical problem and invited countries that lost citizens
to help investigate. Three days later, Iran admitted responsibility after
Western leaders said there was strong evidence the plane was hit by a
surface-to-air missile.The victims included 57 Canadian citizens as well as 11
Ukrainians, 17 people from Sweden, four Afghans and four British citizens. Most
of those killed were Iranians. The other five nations have demanded Iran accept
full responsibility and pay compensation to the victims’ families. The plane was
a Boeing 737-800 that was designed and built in the US The plane’s engine was
designed by CFM International, a joint company between French group Safran and
US group GE Aviation. Investigators from both countries have been invited to
take part in the probe.
Iran says it is preparing for satellite launch
The Associate Press, Tehran/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Iran said Sunday that two newly constructed satellites have passed pre-launch
tests and will be transported to the nation’s space center for eventual launch,
without elaborating. Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi
tweeted about the development, calling it an “important research step.”Iran has
not said when it will launch the satellites, but often coordinates its launches
with national holidays. It will celebrate the 41st anniversary of the Islamic
Revolution next month. Iran’s largely state-run media say the 90-kilogram
(200-pound) Zafar satellites each have four high-resolution color cameras and
will monitor and transmit data on natural resources as well as agricultural and
environmental developments. Iran says its satellite program, like its nuclear
activities, is aimed at scientific research and other civilian applications. The
US and other Western countries have long been suspicious of the program because
the same technology can be used to develop long-range missiles. Iran tried and
failed to launch two satellites into orbit in January and February last year. A
rocket exploded inside the Imam Khomeini Space Center in August during what
officials later said was a test-launch. Iranian officials did not acknowledge
the mishap until satellite imagery showed the explosion. Officials blamed a
technical malfunction. In a separate incident, a fire killed three researchers
at the space center, which is some 240 kilometers (150 miles) southeast of the
capital, Tehran. Iran has sent several satellites into orbit over the past
decade, and in 2013 it launched a monkey into space.
Iran parliament threatens to review cooperation with IAEA:
TV
Reuters/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Iran will review its cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog over
any “unjust” measures, Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani said after EU
powers last week triggered a dispute mechanism under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal.
“We state openly that if the European powers, for any reason, adopt an unfair
approach in using the dispute mechanism, we will seriously reconsider our
cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency,” State TV quoted
Larijani as saying. France, Britain, and Germany triggered the mechanism in the
deal after Tehran continued to distance itself from the pact by decreasing its
nuclear commitments in reaction to sanctions reimposed by Washington since the
US quit the agreement in 2018.
UK’s Johnson, France’s Macron reiterate commitment to Iran nuclear deal
Reuters, London/Sunday, 19 January 2020
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron
reiterated their commitment on Sunday to the Iran nuclear deal and agreed a
long-term framework was needed, Downing Street said on Sunday. “On Iran, the
leaders reiterated their commitment to the JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action) and also acknowledged the need to define a long-term framework to
prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon,” a Downing Street spokeswoman said in a
statement after the two met on the sidelines of a Libya summit in Berlin. “They
agreed on the importance of de-escalation and of working with international
partners to find a diplomatic way through the current tensions,” she added.
Clashes, demonstrations erupt throughout Iraq shutting down
roads and bridges
Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Clashes, demonstrations and road closures continued throughout Iraq on Sunday as
the January 20 deadline for authorities to meet the demands of the people
approaches. Multiple roads and bridges in various regions throughout the country
have been shut down by protesters using burning tyres. Most government offices
and schools have been shut down for the day as well, according to Al Arabiya
sources. Clashes between demonstrators and riot police have erupted in different
areas including the capital Baghdad where forces fired tear gas into the crowds.
Multiple injuries and cases of suffocation were reported, according to local
media. Protesters on Saturday burned the Hezbollah headquarters in Iraq, which
is located near the al-Iskan bridge in the Najaf province. Angry demonstrations
have rocked Baghdad and Iraq’s south for the last three months, denouncing the
country’s corrupt political system. Since October, the unrest has seen around
460 people killed and some 25,000 wounded, the vast majority of them
demonstrators.
Protesters burn headquarters of Iraqi Hezbollah militia in
Najaf
Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Protesters on Saturday burned the Hezbollah headquarters in Iraq which is
located near the al-Iskan bridge in the Najaf province. They had deliberately
closed the government departments in Najaf as the Monday deadline set by the
popular movement of protesters in Iraq approached. The movement, seeking
sweeping political reforms, and better jobs and services, had confirmed the
resumption of protests in Iraq from Friday. The popular movement has also called
for an escalation on January 20, with the expiry of the deadlines granted to the
authorities to agree on the demands of the citizens, especially in the southern
provinces. A large number of protesters flocked to the demonstration squares in
the southern governorates, including university students and clansmen. The
demonstrators also renewed their threat to the ruling class of a peaceful
escalation during the next two days in the event of failure to respond to the
demands of the movement. Civil activists pointed out that the demonstrations
engulfed the main roads and surrounding streets, amid chants against foreign
interference and singing of national anthem.The protesters chanted slogans
against the continuation of Adil Abdul Mahdi as prime minister, and the failure
to prosecute the killers of demonstrators. The protesters also condemned the
campaign of intimidation, abductions and assassinations carried out by
pro-Iranian militias. Angry demonstrations have rocked Baghdad and Iraq’s south
for the last three months, denouncing the country’s corrupt political system.
Since October, the unrest has seen around 460 people killed and some 25,000
wounded, the vast majority of them demonstrators. Meanwhile, Iraq firebrand
Shiite cleric and political figure Moqtada Sadr has called for a “million-strong
march” on January 24 to condemn the US military presence in Iraq.
World powers begin Libya peace talks in Berlin
AFP, Berlin/Sunday, 19 January 2020
World leaders including the presidents of Turkey, Russia, and France opened
talks on Sunday at a summit hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel aimed at
ending the war in Libya. Held under the auspices of the United Nations, the
summit’s main goal is to get foreign powers wielding influence in the region to
stop interfering in the war - be it through the supply of weapons, troops, or
financing. The one-day summit will not attempt to broker a power-sharing
agreement between the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by commander Khalifa Haftar
and the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Sarraj.
Instead, the focus is on a lasting ceasefire to restart talks.
Oil blockade
The LNA shut down eastern oil ports on Friday, cutting oil production by 800,000
barrels a day. That will hit hard Tripoli, which benefits most from oil
revenues. Qatar condemned the storming of Libya’s eastern Zueitina oil export
port. A draft of the summit’s final communique called on all parties to refrain
from hostilities against oil facilities. The draft also recognizes Tripoli-based
state oil company NOC as the sole legitimate entity allowed to sell Libyan oil,
according to the draft, which will be discussed at the summit.
Greece and Turkey
Haftar flew to Athens on Thursday for a surprise visit as Greece seeks to build
ties with the Libyan commander after the UN-recognized government in Tripoli
signed security and maritime deals with Turkey. Athens is fiercely opposed to
the contentious maritime deal between Ankara and Tripoli, which claims much of
the Mediterranean for energy exploration, conflicting with rival claims by
Greece and Cyprus. Turkey has strongly supported the Government of National
Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Sarraj, and its parliament approved a motion to
send troops to Libya earlier this month. Greece sought to take part in the talks
in Berlin, but was not invited. Turkey on Saturday lashed out at Greece for
hosting Haftar, saying that the move would “sabotage” peace efforts on the eve
of an international summit in Berlin.
Putin: Don't lose hope that Libya conflict will be solved
Reuters, Berlin/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday said he hoped that the Berlin summit
on Libya could bring further progress and that Moscow’s peace efforts had
yielded first results. “We don’t lose hope that dialogue will continue and the
conflict will be solved,” Putin said before meeting Turkish President Tayyip
Erdogan on the sidelines of the conference. Putin said that Russia and Turkey
had taken a “very good step” by urging Libyan factions to stop fighting, adding
that large military actions had been stopped in Libya.
Libyan tribesmen say they have closed al-Sharara and
al-Feel oilfields
Reuters, Benghazi/Sunday, 19 January 2020
A group representing southern Libyan tribesmen said on Sunday it had closed the
southern al-Sharara and al-Feel oilfields, virtually halting all of Libya’s oil
output during a major international peace summit for Libya in Berlin. The leader
of the Fezzan Anger group, Bashir al-Sheikh, told Reuters it had shut two
fields, just two days after other fields in the east of the country were also
shut. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) is cutting production at the al-Sharara
and al-Feel oilfields, which pump around 400,000 barrels day, after forces under
the command of Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) shut a pipeline from
the fields, the company said on Sunday. “NOC confirms that individuals from the
Petroleum Facilities Guard under the command of the LNA General Command have
shut down the Hamada-Zawiya oil pipeline, forcing the corporation to limit oil
production at the Sharara and Feel oilfields,” its statement said.
No normalization in relations yet, UK PM Johnson tells
Russia’s Putin
ReuterséSunday, 19 January 2020
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Russian President Vladimir Putin on
Sunday there would be no normalization of the two countries’ relations until
Moscow ends its “destabilizing activity” that threatens security. A spokeswoman
from Johnson’s Downing Street office said the prime minister met Putin on the
sidelines of a summit on Libya in Berlin, where the two discussed the need to
address security issues in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. “He was clear there had
been no change in the UK’s position on Salisbury, which was a reckless use of
chemical weapons and a brazen attempt to murder innocent people on UK soil. He
said that such an attack must not be repeated,” the spokeswoman said in a
statement. This referred to a 2018 chemical attack on a former Russian double
agent in the city of Salisbury that the British government blamed on Russian
military intelligence. “The prime minister said there will be no normalization
of our bilateral relationship until Russia ends the destabilizing activity that
threatens the UK and our allies and undermines the safety of our citizens and
our collective security.”
Jordan Parliament Approves Draft Law to Ban Gas Imports From Israel
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 19 January, 2020
Jordan's parliament on Sunday passed a draft law to ban imports of Israeli gas
to the country just days after they kicked off under a deal struck in 2016. The
multibillion-dollar deal was opposed by much of the population and caused
controversy which saw popular rage marches in the past weeks in Amman and other
provinces. The motion was passed unanimously by Jordan's 130 lawmakers and will
be referred to the cabinet to be made law, although legal hurdles may prevent it
coming into force, Reuters reported.
The $10 billion supply deal was originally struck between Jordan's state-owned
utility and a US Israeli consortium led by Texas-based Noble Energy, to provide
gas to the country's power plants for electricity generation. The government has
previously noted that it was a deal between companies rather than a political
matter. Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel, however the deal has faced
popular opposition. Last week, around 30 deputies signed a memorandum to
withdraw confidence from the government over the import of Israeli gas to the
country. The streets also saw calls for both the deal and the peace treaty to be
scrapped. "The gas of the enemy is an occupation. Down with the gas deal,"
placards carried by protesters said, Reuters reported. The Jordanian government
said after the agreement was signed in 2016 that securing stable energy prices
for the next decade could achieve annual savings of at least $500 million and
help reduce a chronic budget deficit. According to Reuters, many Jordanians are
also the descendants of Palestinians who moved to the country after the creation
of Israel in 1948, and view Israel as an erstwhile enemy that expelled their
ancestors from their homes.
UNRWA’ Warns of Israel's Attempt to Force it Out of
Jerusalem
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 19 January, 2020 -
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near
East (UNRWA) has warned of the Israeli occupation attempts to force the agency
out of occupied Jerusalem.
UNRWA spokesman Sami Mshasha stated that these attempts haven’t stopped. The
last endeavor is to implement a plan soon, which is to build schools' compound
near Shufat camp to encourage parents to register their children in schools
owned by the occupation municipality in Jerusalem. The purpose behind this is to
empty the UNRWA schools and then force the agency out of Jerusalem. Mshasha
added that UNRWA faces these attempts through reinforcing its presence – he
warned that the real danger is that the Israeli side is working with the
European parliaments so that the agency doesn't get funded. On the possibility
of these parliaments responding to the attempts, the spokesman said that there
are new groups inside the parliaments, parliaments of European Union members and
right-wing parties that can be easily influenced. The presence of some voices in
Europe – even if few – calling off the renewal of support to the agency is
concerning. Meanwhile, the EU is until this moment the biggest donor for UNRWA.
Israel seeks to get UNRWA out of Jerusalem within the US plan to shut down the
international agency. The mandate of UNRWA was extended until June 30, 2023,
with 169 votes in favor and nine abstentions, while the US and Israel voted
against. Secretary-General of the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO)
executive committee Saeb Erekat stressed that the agency’s work should continue.
There is a lot of work to be done to mandate the UNRWA and provide required
support for it so that it continues to carry out its duties towards Palestinian
refugees, he noted.
Yemen says Houthi attack is revenge for Soleimani, calls on
UN to condemn
Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Yemeni Minister of Information Moammar al-Eryani says the Houthi missile and
drone attack on a military camp in Marib is an act of revenge for Iran’s Qassem
Soleimani’s killing, calling on the UN to condemn the attack. “The attack by
Iran’s mercenaries, “the Houthi militia”, with Iranian missiles … as an act of
revenge for the killing of Soleimani is a terrorist crime,” al-Eryani said in a
tweet on Sunday. The Iran-backed Houthi militia killed at least 70 soldiers and
wounded 150 more in a missile and drone attack on a training camp in Yemen on
Saturday, in one of the deadliest attacks of the five-year-old civil war.
The minister condemned the UN’s silence after the attack and the Iranian
escalation of the conflict in Yemen, “which threatens to destroy efforts of
ending the war.”“We call on the UN special envoy Martin Griffiths to take a
position and condemn this savage attack … because silence gives green light for
more crimes,” the Yemeni minister added. The bombing marks a further escalation
of the proxy war playing out in the Middle East, and comes two weeks after the
US killed one of Iran’s most powerful military leaders, Qassem Soleimani, in a
drone attack in Iraq. The Houthi attack hit a warehouse and a mosque at a
military base in Marib, where soldiers were performing evening prayer. The
personnel killed included members of the Fourth Brigade of the presidential
guard and the air force, military sources said.
Yemen: Dozens Killed in Houthi Bombing on Army Camp
Marib - Asharq al-Awsat/Sunday, 19 January, 2020
The Iranian-backed Houthi militia launched a double attack with missiles and
drones on a Yemeni National Army camp in Marib, killing 60 people and injuring
over 50 others among the ranks of the Yemeni legitimate forces. Yemeni sources
reported that the Houthi militia launched a missile at a mosque inside al-Istiqbal
camp in Dhamar when the soldiers were performing prayers. The attack also
reached al-Istiqbal training camp and al-Nasr camp, close to al-Farda mountains
of Nihm district, north of the city of Marib, according to the Marib Press
website. All of the victims were from the Presidential Protection Brigades,
which were being prepared for relocation to the temporary capital, Aden. A
medical source at the General Authority Hospital in Marib said that the hospital
received dozens of dead and more than fifty wounded as of Saturday evening. The
Houthi coup militias pushed new military reinforcements towards Ad-Durayhimi
district, south of Hodeidah, at the time it continues to escalate its violations
and military operations in various coastal regions and districts of the coastal
province. Local authorities recorded the injury of a citizen by coup militia in
the al-Saqf village of the mountainous area in At-Tuhayta district, south of
Hodeidah. Meanwhile, battles in al-Bayda and Nihm districts renewed, and the
national army announced that the engineering teams of the Fifth Military Zone
found Thursday a thermal marine mine planted by the Houthi militias in the
waters of the Red Sea, Hodeidah governorate.
Leaders vow to form multilateral committee at Berlin summit
on Libya
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 19 January 2020
International leaders who met in Berlin for a peace summit on Libya have vowed
to form a multilateral follow-up committee to continue coordination on
developments in Libya, according to the conference’s final communique.
Participants at the Berlin summit on Libya have also pledged not to interfere in
Libya’s internal affairs. The final communique said that international leaders
agreed that the situation in Libya is threatening global peace and security and
that the country has become “fertile ground for armed and terrorist groups.”“All
participants committed to refrain from interferences in the armed conflict or
internal affairs in Libya,” UN chief Antonio Guterres said, while Chancellor
Angela Merkel added that there was also "agreement that we want to respect a
weapons embargo that will be strongly controlled."World leaders including the
presidents of Turkey, Russia, and France opened talks on Sunday at a summit
hosted by Merkel aimed at ending the war in Libya. Held under the auspices of
the United Nations, the summit’s main goal is to get foreign powers wielding
influence in the region to stop interfering in the war - be it through the
supply of weapons, troops, or financing.(With AFP)
Cyprus brands Turkey a ‘pirate state’ in gas drilling row
AFP/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Cyprus accused on Sunday Turkey of turning into a “pirate state” in its attack
of Ankara’s exploratory oil and gas drilling off its coastal waters a day after
the EU issued its own warning. “Turkey is turning into a pirate state in the
eastern Mediterranean,” said the statement from the Cypriot presidency.“Turkey
insists on going down the path of international illegality it has chosen,” it
added. The statement came a day after the European Union called on Turkey to
drop its plans to drill around Cyprus and the eastern Mediterranean, arguing
such exploration was “illegal.”Earlier, EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano
said: “Concrete steps towards creating an environment conducive to dialogue in
good faith are needed. “The intention by Turkey to launch further exploration
and drilling activities in the wider region goes, regrettably, in the opposite
direction,” he said, in a statement released Saturday.
But Turkey’s foreign ministry said Sunday: “The Turkish Cypriots have rights on
this field... as much as the Greek Cypriots. “The two sides will share the
income if oil or natural gas are found there.”Its ship Yavuz had arrived at the
“G” license field for its first round of drilling, the statement added.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed Thursday that Turkey would start
exploring for gas in the eastern Mediterranean “as soon as possible” this year,
after signing a maritime deal with Libya. Ankara angered neighboring countries
in the Mediterranean with an agreement signed with the Tripoli government in
November, which claimed extensive areas of the sea for Turkey. Greece says the
deal fails to respect its maritime rights around the island of Crete. Turkey has
already upset Cyprus by sending ships to search for oil and gas off the divided
island.
Ahead of Senate trial, Trump legal team rejects impeachment
as flawed
Reuters, Palm Beach, Florida/Sunday, 19 January 2020
US President Donald Trump’s legal team on Saturday issued a resounding rejection
of the House of Representatives’ impeachment of him, proclaiming his innocence
and calling the charges against Trump a “dangerous attack” on Americans. In a
six-page document to be released on Saturday, Trump’s lawyers for the first time
formally addressed the merits of the two articles of impeachment - abuse of
power and obstruction of Congress - that the Democratic-led House approved late
last year. The two articles, aimed at ousting Trump from office, form the basis
of a trial that will begin in earnest on Tuesday in the Republican-controlled
Senate. “We are on strong legal footing. The president has done nothing wrong
and we believe that will be borne out in this process,” said one of three
sources close to the Trump legal team who briefed reporters on a conference call
about the contents of the document. At the same time, House Democrats planned to
unveil their legal strategy to argue that he should be removed from office.
Trump, at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, for the weekend, played a
round of golf on Saturday. The Trump impeachment response will say the case
against the president is “nothing more than a dangerous attack on the American
people” and their right to vote, the sources said. The document will argue that
the articles of impeachment violate the US Constitution and would do lasting
damage, they said. Trump is accused of abuse of office for pressuring Ukraine to
investigate a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, and of
obstructing Congress in its investigation into his conduct. Trump has denied
wrongdoing and has accused Democrats of a partisan-driven effort to undo his
2016 election victory. The Senate trial is unlikely to lead to Trump’s ouster,
as no Republican senators have voiced support for doing so. The Trump lawyers,
in their document, argued that Trump acted at all times with full constitutional
legal authority, the sources said.
Police fire tear gas at Hong Kong protesters as thousands
rally
The Associated Press, Hong KongSunday, 19 January 2020
Hong Kong police fired tear gas at a public park Sunday that was overflowing
with thousands of protesters calling for electoral reforms and a boycott of the
Chinese Communist Party. Sporting their movement’s trademark black clothing and
face masks, rally participants packed into Chater Garden, not far from the
city’s Legislative Council building. They held up signs that read “Free Hong
Kong” and waved American and British flags. A former British colony, Hong Kong
was returned to China in 1997. While the framework of “one country, two systems”
promises the territory greater democratic rights than are afforded to the
mainland, protesters say their freedoms have been steadily eroding under Chinese
President Xi Jinping. Frictions between democracy-minded Hong Kongers and the
Communist Party-ruled central government in Beijing came to a head last June,
when proposed extradition legislation sparked months of often violent mass
demonstrations. The bill - which would have allowed Hong Kong residents to be
sent to mainland China to stand trial - has since been withdrawn, but protests
have continued for eight months around demands for voting rights and an
independent inquiry into police conduct. The Hong Kong police gave approval for
Sunday’s rally, but not for a march that organizers also are planning.
India, Sri Lanka seek closer military ties to counter China
AFP, Colombo/Sunday, 19 January 2020
Sri Lanka and India vowed to strengthen military ties and widen maritime links
with neighboring countries after security talks, the president’s office said
Sunday, to counter growing Chinese influence in the region. China, a long-time
regional rival of India, has been widening its footprint in the region,
including building ports and upgrading airports in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Saturday with recently elected
Sri Lanka President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and discussed setting up a maritime
coordination center, Rajapaksa’s office said in a statement. It did not give
details of the proposed center, but said other nations in the region should be
included as observers. It said the two countries also discussed closer military
and coastguard cooperation. The meeting followed Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi
in late November for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who offered $450
million in aid to Sri Lanka after his landslide victory in the presidential
election. Sri Lanka has traditionally been allied to India, but China invested
and loaned billions of dollars to the island nation during the decade-long reign
of Rajapaksa’s elder brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa.
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi also held talks with President Rajapaksa on
Tuesday during a brief transit stop in Colombo. “As Sri Lanka’s strategic
partner, China will continue to stand by Sri Lanka’s interests,” Rajapaksa’s
office quoted Wang as saying.
Rajapaksa in December warned India and Western nations that Sri Lanka would be
forced to seek more finance from China if they do not invest in the island. Sri
Lanka was forced to hand over the strategic Hambantota port south of Colombo to
China in 2017 on a 99-year lease after the government at the time said it was
unable to repay loans taken to build it.
Powerful 6.0 earthquake shakes China’s Xinjiang
AFP/Sunday, 19 January 2020
A 6.0 magnitude earthquake hit a remote area of northwest China’s Xinjiang
region late Sunday, the US Geological Survey said. The shallow quake struck at
9:27 pm (1327 GMT) around 100 kilometers east-northeast of the ancient Silk Road
city of Kashgar. In its initial assessment, the USGS said there was a low
likelihood of casualties. It said however that significant damage was likely,
with many buildings in the region built from mud bricks or cinder block masonry.
The area near the quake’s epicenter is sparsely populated mountain and desert
terrain. China is regularly hit by earthquakes, especially in its mountainous
western and southwestern regions. In February 2003 a powerful 6.8-magnitude
quake killed 268 people in Xinjiang and caused significant damage.
China’s national health commission says viral outbreak is
‘controllable’
Reuters, Beijing/Sunday, 19 January 2020
China’s National Health Commission on Sunday said the outbreak of a new strain
of coronavirus is controllable, in the first statement from the body since the
outbreak was reported in late December. The transmission path of the new virus
hasn’t been mapped completely and the source of the virus is unknown, it said,
adding that it will step up monitoring during lunar New Year, when much of
China’s population will travel to celebrate the holiday next week.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 19-20/2020
Obama Passed the Buck. Trump Refused to
Play.
Tablet magazine/Lee Smith/January 19/2020
The Iran deal was never meant to stop Iran from building a bomb—it was supposed
to delay it until disaster happened on someone else’s watch
In the wake of the targeted killing of Iranian terror master Qassem Soleimani,
an interesting fight has broken out—after Donald Trump failed to brief them in
advance of the strike, Democrats began fulsomely criticizing the president. This
led Republican lawmakers to accuse their counterparts across the aisle of
pro-terrorist sympathies. Maybe Republicans are still sore that Barack Obama
compared them to Iranian hardliners like Soleimani for denouncing his signature
foreign policy initiative, the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Or maybe it’s something else.
Because the fact is that the Democrats are not pro-terrorist. They’re simply
intent on protecting the historic agreement that legalized the nuclear weapons
program of a terror state.
Democratic leadership is angry it wasn’t briefed before the operation, as were
some Republican lawmakers critical of the scant information in the White House
intelligence briefing on the attack. But there is reason to believe senior
Democrats would have leaked it to the press, as they’ve done repeatedly over the
last three years to prosecute their anti-Trump campaign. In particular, House
Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff and his staff have used CNN as a
platform to push the discredited Trump-Russia collusion narrative. Why would
Democrats endanger U.S. national security by leaking highly classified plans of
a major operation against a terror leader? Because Soleimani was the centerpiece
of the nuclear deal.
The JCPOA was the instrument Obama used to secure the administration’s ultimate
goal—realigning U.S. interests with those of Iran. For the U.S. to be able to
minimize its footprint in the Middle East, the Obama White House needed a proxy
force—much like the Iranians use proxies to advance their interests. Soleimani
managed Iranian proxies and Obama, who praised the late commander, believed he
was capable of stabilizing the region on behalf of America.
In 2015, when the JCPOA went into effect, Soleimani was removed from the U.N.
sanctions list, a provision that, according to press reports at the time, the
Iranians saw as “nonnegotiable.” That’s how Obama wanted it, too.
As I explained in Tablet last week, Obama had subscribed to the myth that U.S.
policymakers had built up around Iran over 40 years—that the third-world
obscurantist regime was in fact a formidable power that the U.S. dare not
challenge lest it risk an apocalyptic war. Seen from Obama’s perspective, a
nation this powerful was—unlike the incoherent Arabs, OR tiny Israel—singularly
capable of maintaining order.
Former Bush administration Senior Director for the Middle East Michael Doran
said on Twitter he had knowledge of messages from the Obama administration to
Soleimani. “We don’t know the subject matter of the messages,” Doran told
Tablet, “but given the tenor of Obama’s letters to [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei,
it is a reasonable assumption that the administration wrote to Soleimani to
court him rather than to deter him.” A senior U.S. official confirmed to Tablet
the existence of the messages from the Obama administration to Soleimani.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also wrote the late terror master. In December
2017, the then CIA director said he’d warned Soleimani that the Trump
administration would hold him and “Iran accountable for any attacks on American
interests in Iraq by forces that are under their control.” The targeted killing
that brought down Soleimani and his Iraqi deputy, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, two
weeks ago made good on that warning.
The nuclear program, the regime’s crown jewel, is controlled not by the
imaginary moderates who want rapprochement with the Great Satan. It is rather in
the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the expeditionary
unit Soleimani led, the Quds Force, which have been waging war on the U.S. and
its allies for four decades. This is why the previous White House did not stand
with the Iranian protesters who filled the streets in 2010. The Iranian security
forces shooting civilians in the streets were the same people with whom Obama
needed to make a deal. Taking sides against them would have made that harder;
likely impossible.
Trump, by contrast, says he is not that interested in making a deal. “I couldn’t
care less if they negotiate,” he tweeted Sunday about Iranian leadership. “Will
be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.’”
Trump has thereby distinguished himself from his predecessor. The world’s most
famous dealmaker appears not to be angling for a deal, and for good
reason—there’s no deal to be had because there’s nothing left to negotiate.
Obama set it up that way. The JCPOA guaranteed that the Iranians would all but
have a bomb within 10 years—or by the end of the second term of Obama’s
successor.
JCPOA advocates claim Trump left the U.S. and the entire world vulnerable by
leaving the Iran deal. The JCPOA, they say, was working. This is not true and
hasn’t been true since the very beginning of the deal, at least not on the terms
sold to Congress and the U.S. public. From the start, Iran was given secret
loopholes that made it appear they were meeting the publicly stated terms of
deal. Among other recent violations: The Iranians have exceeded the amount of
uranium they’re allowed to enrich; they’ve exceeded the levels of purity of
enriched uranium; they’ve violated the types of centrifuges they were allowed to
spin; and injected uranium into centrifuges they were not allowed to use for
enrichment.
Perhaps most tellingly, Iran’s nuclear archives, which Israel seized from a
Tehran warehouse in January 2018 and made public months later, show that the
regime never gave up its intentions to build a military nuclear program, despite
promises in the JCPOA to never pursue nuclear weapons.
There is, however, a case to be made that the deal was serving its purpose. But
that interpretation requires a markedly different understanding of the JCPOA
than what the Obama administration sold to Congress and the American public. The
point of the deal was not to stop Iran from ever building a bomb but to prevent
the Iranians from doing so until Obama left office.
The Obama administration went to extravagant lengths to hide the obvious, hidden
in plain sight. It’s all spelled out in the JCPOA’s so-called “sunset” clauses,
the restrictions on the nuclear program that were designed to evaporate after
Obama moved into private life.
In 2023, the U.N. ban on assistance to Iran’s ballistic missile program will
end. The ban on the manufacture of advanced centrifuges will begin to expire,
shortening the amount of time it will take to build a bomb. Perhaps most
importantly, in 2025, the U.N. snapback mechanism allowing the U.S. to reimpose
sanctions will expire, meaning that we would need to persuade Russia and China
to restore international sanctions on Iran. The effect is that there is nothing
short of military action to stop the Iranians from marching toward the bomb. It
was Obama who said that by years 13, 14, or 15 of the deal Iran would be within
a hairbreadth of a nuclear bomb By 2031 with all nuclear restrictions lifted,
the Islamic Republic will have a full-scale nuclear weapons program.
The Iranians agreed to pretend to restrictions only because the Obama
administration bribed them handsomely. There were several money streams the
former White House poured into the regime. One was sanctions relief, worth
hundreds of billions of dollars. Last month Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
said that in leaving the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions, Trump cost the regime
$200 billion. The Obama administration provided another source of income by
unlocking escrow accounts when the deal was implemented in January 2016,
flooding the regime with some $100 billion in previously frozen oil receipts.
The most infamous payoff was the $1.7 billion in cash the administration shipped
off to the IRGC on wooden pallets in exchange for U.S. citizens held hostage by
the regime. The White House said that there was no “quid pro quo,” that it was
Iran’s money to begin with—$400 million the pre-revolutionary government had
deposited in 1979 to buy U.S. arms, plus interest. But the U.S. had already used
the $400 million to compensate terror victims of the Islamic Republic. That was
Iran’s money. The $400 million the Obama administration used to “pay back” the
Iranians belonged to the U.S. taxpayer.
The administration argued that the U.S. had to pay the ransom in cash because
Tehran had been cut off from the financial system and there was no other way to
transfer the funds. That was not true. The Obama administration had wired
payments to Iran before and after the wooden pallets episode. The Iranians
wanted cash so it would be harder to track their terror financing.
The Obama administration even paid the Iranians when they violated the deal. The
Iranians overproduced reactor coolant, (heavy water, a key ingredient in nuclear
reactors and nuclear weapons) in violation of the JCPOA, and the administration
offered to buy it for $10 million to keep them in compliance. But that wasn’t
enough for Tehran—or the White House. In exchange for giving up the
nuclear-related material they had promised not to have in the first place—the
heavy water—the regime then demanded more nuclear material in exchange. And the
American administration agreed: In January 2017, Obama greenlighted the shipment
of 130 tons of uranium to Iran.
If this all seems unbelievable, it’s because it is—and also because you’re
probably still imagining that Obama’s goal was to prevent Iran from getting a
nuclear weapon. But once you understand the real purpose, these moves become
much clearer. To wit: Why did Obama give the regime enough uranium to make 10
nuclear bombs? To pressure the incoming Trump administration to stick with the
nuclear deal. If Trump chose to leave the JCPOA, he’d have to deal with the fact
that with 130 tons of uranium already on hand Iran had an easier path to the
bomb. In effect, the last president handed the Iranians a loaded gun to be
pointed at his successor.
The press corps was crucial in helping Obama deceive the American public. There
were some journalists at the time who asked important questions about the JCPOA;
most of them on the State Department beat, like the AP’S Matt Lee and Bradley
Klapper. The media echo chamber, on the other hand, who helped sell the deal,
consisted largely of reporters covering the White House and national security
beat who were accustomed to being hand-fed by the Obama inner circle. This group
would later form the core of the media operation pushing the Trump-Russia
collusion narrative.
For the Iran deal, the task of these correspondents was to drown out anyone who
challenged the wisdom of Obama’s fire sale, including senior Democrats, like
Sens. Chuck Schumer, Ben Cardin, and Bob Menendez. They were smeared as dual
loyalists in formerly prestige press outfits like The New York Times, aghast at
the “the unseemly spectacle of lawmakers siding with a foreign leader [Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] against their own commander in chief.” The
administration also spied on Democrats and pro-Israel activists critical of the
deal.
Cory Booker was the one candidate among the field of Democrats running in 2020
who understood the nature of the JCPOA. He backed it at the time but said in a
June debate that he wouldn’t necessarily reenter the deal. On Monday Booker
announced he was dropping out of the race. And what about the Democrat leading
the polls? Obama’s Vice President Joe Biden is proud of his role pushing the
JCPOA, even if he’ll have to manage the consequences of the deal if he defeats
Trump in November. As for the rest of the field, they’re making their opinions
known with their silence regarding the Iranian protesters.
Now three years after Obama left the White House, it’s clear why the former
president’s party is worried about the fate of his signature foreign policy
initiative. By killing the Iranian commander Obama officials were sending
messages to, Trump has shown his fiercest critics to be right—he’s nothing like
Obama.
On Paths of Leadership in Lebanon
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 19/2020
In the fifties, followers would come up with chants to salute their leaders on
occasions, especially during electoral battles. Most of them rhymed and were
signed, and they exuded masculinity. For example, the chant to a leader from
Akkar, Suleiman al-Ali, said: “Suleiman bek, do not care– you have men who drink
blood” - (expressing fearlessness). The chants to Ahmad al-Asaad in the south
were even more extreme; he was likened to a large bull and his supporters
likened themselves to flies, for if he moved his tail left or right he would
smash them.
I myself saw Kamal Jumblatt at his palace in Mukhtara a month before the Two
Years War (the first phase of the Lebanese Civil War). That day amazed me. He
was a “socialist” and a “progressive”, and his arrogance was met by the hordes
of his supporters with total submission. They passed through rows to shake his
hand, and he pulled out a cold and relaxed hand and a look of disgust to greet
them.
Jumblatt’s title, the title of all those who ruled Mukhtara, was “son of the
pillar of the sky”. On the other hand, the notorious arrogance of Kamil al-Asaad,
son of Ahmad, only rarely called out to the skies. His arrogance was very
"worldly", interfering in the minute-by-minute details of the villages’ affairs
from a very lofty balcony.
In any case, these kinds of leaders had a stronger presence in areas like the
South, the Bekaa, and Akar or in mountainous areas like the southern parts of
the Chouf, where large land ownership was maintained. In the northern town of
Zgharta, capitalist relations were absent, and nuclear families failed to rid
themselves of the large-land-owning families. Many of the town’s new born boys
were named after a leader. For he delivered “services”, the most important of
which is employing their sons in the army and the public sector. Given the
absence of plans for development, providing basic infrastructure like a school
here or a road there, also comes to fall under the category of “services” for
these regions.
“Defending” the region and its “pride” against neighboring regions or regions
with a different sectarian identity also falls under this category. In return,
they gave him loyal support, which translated into votes, and they gather in
large numbers chanting for him in order to prove his popularity. Some areas
overdid it, going as far as collecting donations to fund his electoral campaign
or one of his sons’ weddings. It is said that the late President Sleiman
Frangieh’s supporters from Zgharta used to voluntarily provide food and drinks
for the feasts in which he would host “foreigners”, i.e. leaders from outside
the region.
In the centers of Beirut and the mountains, government agencies played the role
that ownership of large swaths of agricultural land. However, the leadership
there was embodied by the president and centralized in him, like his state. Two
men shared this job between independence in 1943 and the start of the civil war,
Camille Chamoun and Fuad Chehab. The former was helped by his charisma and what
was called his defence of Christians in the face of the “1958 Revolution” and of
Lebanon in the face of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Here, genealogical mythology played
its role: Chamoun’s father was named Nemr (Arabic for tiger), and having the
paternity of a tiger, with all the strength and ferocity associated with tigers,
helped prop up the “manhood” and courage assigned to Chamoun. Thus, many
newborns were named Camille or Nemr.
As for Chehab, his lack of charisma meant that the manufacture of his image was
left to Military Second Bureau and the influence it had over a compliant media.
Indeed, leaving the manufacture of his image to the men of intelligence agencies
gave him a poorly developed title, “the saint”. However, raising the man’s
stature to this divine degree did not prevent the name from having the source of
its plight programmed into it. For the title made the Christian that had an
extreme love for their saints hate Chehab, whom they considered to be biased in
favour of Muslims, even more.
The war did not kill leadership. Instead it “democratized” it by producing an
excessive supply of leaders. Thus, tens of Lebanese and Palestinians who led
battles on the front were greeted with the chant: “Our blood, our souls- we
sacrifice for you ….” After the Syrian Nationalists’ worship of Antoun Saadeh
and his “infallible” leadership had been an anomalous exception, it became
extremely widespread included leaders of all levels.
In this commotion, the sects chose grand figures of worship. For example, Moussa
al-Sadr was chosen by Shiites and Bashir Gemayel by Maronites. Right after peace
was reached, the patriarchal image of these figures prevailed over their images
as warlords and leaders of the religion, which, in the case of Lebanon, is
difficult to disassemble from the sect.
Rafic Hariri was described as “the poor man’s father” and, later on, Michel Aoun
was given the title “everyone’s father”; what had been considered an outdated
Ottoman practice, Sami el-Soloh was given the title "Papa Sami" for example, was
restored. However, the war that continues during peacetime chose not to give in
to a paternity with limited abilities, a paternity that could be killed, as with
the case of Hariri, and a paternity that is demonstrably weak while it claims to
be strong, as with the case of Aoun.
Indeed, what this relatively long period of time seemed to have been suppressed
with urbanization came back with a bang, and it seems that the return to
civilian life served it well. To Nabih Berri, his supports say: “Had it not been
for the “h”, you would have been a prophet” taking that (Nabi is prophet in
Arabic), while an aura of holiness has been created around Hassan Nasrallah and
his actions.
With the collapse of the patron-client model of leadership in light of the
general monetary and economic collapse the country is facing, youths came out to
defy their leaders and refuse succession. They are going as far as preventing
their leaders to leave their homes and show their faces in public.
Thus a new form of leadership is emerging. It is still too early to describe
this new form, as it has not produced a new leader but Hassan Diab, whose name
most Lebanese have difficulty remembering.
Palestinian Elections: Between the Ambiguous and the Impossible
Nabil Amr/Asharq Al Awsat/January 19/2020
weeks of commotion around the Palestinian general election, there has been less
talk about it as a result of two reasons, one explicit and another implicit.
The explicit reason is that Israel is unsure whether it will permit the
elections to take place in East Jerusalem. As a result, no presidential decree
on carrying out the elections has been issued yet. The implicit reason is fear
among the political class of its influence being dissipated, an influence that
it inherited, an influence that draws its legitimacy from an era that has ended.
The factions that have maintained their positions in the leadership of the
Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinain Authority do not want to
test their strength in an election as they know that they would lose. These
factions, which have already tried their luck in the previous elections and
returned abysmal results, are not the only ones who do not want an election.
There are others who share this aversion to the elections among Fatah and Hamas.
This shared view led to a strong tendency to be suspicious of the general
election. They are promoting nicely packaged justifications, claiming, for
example, that holding an election without ending division will consecrate the
latter, as if it was not the 13 years of feeding this division that consecrated
it. Also, the ambiguity of the Israeli position on allowing the elections to be
carried out in Jerusalem is being used to justify not carrying it out on any of
the areas under the control of the national authority.
Objectively, the Palestinian general election has been suspended on two
conditions, one ambiguous and the other impossible. Tying the election to the
Israeli government allowing that it be carried out in Jerusalem has subjected
the election, which ought to be a purely Palestinian affair, to the mercy of the
results of the Israeli elections. With that in mind, until now, and perhaps
until the end of the third electoral round, a clear Israeli decision in this
regard seems unlikely. Who in Israel would take the risk of having its two
leading contenders infringe on what they consider to be a qualitative
achievement for Israel, Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of
Israel? Such recognition was out of the question when the Israeli government
previously agreed to have the people of Jerusalem participate in the Palestinian
general election.
Making this ambiguous issue even more ambiguous is the possibility of announcing
the deal of the century right before or after the Israeli elections. A deal that
will include provisions that would make it difficult for any Israeli government
to agree that the people of Jerusalem take part in the Palestinian election.
That is unless we assume that the Trump administration will pressure Israel to
repeat what it had done twice before, which is very unlikely of an
administration that suggested Abu Dis as an alternative capital for Palestine.
This is as far as the ambiguous reason goes. As for the impossible, it is tying
the election, as some influential figures are suggesting, with ending the
division first, contrary to the understanding that an election agreed upon by
everyone would be the primary step towards restoring unity.
It can be noted, however, that there is not much talk about ending the division
anymore, and that the efforts that were being made by mediators are no longer as
extensive as before. This means, politically and practically, that the division
has turned into a separation, and de-escalation talks between Hamas and Israel
are actually going in that direction.
The likelihood of carrying out a general election has substantially diminished.
Still, it is noteworthy that alternative proposals are being made, not about how
the election can be carried out in Jerusalem but about ditching the election
altogether. They propose to do so by replacing the elected Palestinian
Legislative Council with the appointed Central Council that belongs to the era
of factions. This would entail that the government is replaced with the
executive committee. When the alternatives are carefully examined, it appears as
the saying goes, “he who resorts to fire to escape the heat”.
The US might finally unveil deal of the century, in the
run-up to Israel's election
Jonathan Cook/The National/January 19/2020
More than any of his recent predecessors, Mr Trump has shown a repeated
willingness to meddle in Israeli elections to the benefit of Mr Netanyahu.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs all the help he can muster
before voters head to the ballot box on March 2 – for the third time in a year.
Once again, it seems as though US President Donald Trump intends to ride to his
rescue. Despite Mr Trump’s best efforts, Israel’s two elections last year ended
in stalemate. Each time, Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party and its religious,
pro-settler coalition partners tied with the secular, yet hawkish right led by
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. The pressure on Mr Netanyahu to win this time
has intensified. His opponents in the Israeli parliament advanced plans last
week to set up a committee to weigh whether or not he should be immune from
prosecution in three corruption cases. Until recently, Mr Netanyahu had been
reluctant for the so-called “deal of the century” to be published because it
would be unlikely to satisfy the settlers’ most extreme demands
If he is denied immunity, as seems likely, the path will be clear for a trial
that might make it impossible for him to head the next government whatever the
outcome. This was the background to intimations from the Trump administration
last week that it may finally publish its long-anticipated peace plan.
The White House reportedly delayed the plan’s release over the course of last
year as it waited for Mr Netanyahu to secure a majority government to put it
into effect.
Leaks suggest the document will bolster Israel’s maximalist demands, scuppering
any hopes of establishing a viable Palestinian state. The Palestinian leadership
severed ties with Washington a while back in protest. More than any of his
recent predecessors, Mr Trump has shown a repeated willingness to meddle in
Israeli elections to the benefit of Mr Netanyahu. Shortly before last April’s
vote, Mr Trump declared that the US would formally recognise Israel’s annexation
of the Golan Heights from Syria. The seizure of the 1,800-square-kilometre
territory in 1967 remains illegal under international law. And days before the
most recent ballot in September, Mr Trump publicly alluded to the possibility of
a US-Israeli defence pact.
Now US officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have hinted that the
US peace plan could be published in the run-up to the March election. Israeli
officials have been saying much the same to local media since an unexpected
visit this month by Avi Berkowitz, Mr Trump’s new aide overseeing the peace
plan. This prompted Mr Gantz, the prime minister’s main challenger, to condemn
any such move as “blatant interference” in the election. In fact, until
recently, Mr Netanyahu had been reluctant for the so-called “deal of the
century” to be published because it would be unlikely to satisfy the settlers’
most extreme demands. He had feared that disappointment might drive some Likud
voters further to the right, towards smaller, even more hardline parties. But Mr
Netanyahu is now in such precarious political and legal straits that he appears
ready to gamble. Publication of the peace plan could attract some more
uncompromising Blue and White voters to his side. They may prefer a seasoned
player like Mr Netanyahu to manage White House expectations, rather than a
politically inexperienced former army general like Mr Gantz.
Furthermore, the settler parties that could steal votes from Likud as a result
of a Trump “peace” initiative are the lynchpin of the coalition Mr Netanyahu
needs to maintain his grip on power. Netanyahu’s own party may not gain more
seats but overall his far-right bloc could prosper, ultimately securing Mr
Netanyahu the election and immunity from prosecution.
The key issue on which Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump appear to agree is on annexing
the bulk of the West Bank – territories categorised in the Oslo accords as Area
C, the backbone of any future Palestinian state. Before the September election,
Mr Netanyahu announced plans to annex the Jordan Valley, the West Bank’s vast
agricultural basin – presumably with Mr Trump’s blessing. Mr Pompeo offered his
apparent backing in November by claiming that Israeli settlements in the West
Bank were not necessarily “inconsistent with international law”. With that as a
cue, Mr Netanyahu’s government convened a panel this month to draft an official
proposal to annex the Jordan Valley.
Naftali Bennett, the defence minister and a settler leader, revealed last week
that Israel was creating seven new “nature reserves” on Palestinian land.
Another 12 existing Israeli-seized sites are to be expanded. Israel would annex
Area C “within a short time”, Mr Bennett added.
On Saturday, he also ordered the army to bar from the West Bank prominent
Israeli left-wing activists who demonstrate alongside Palestinians against land
thefts by the settlers and the army. He equated these non-violent protesters
with extremist settler groups that have assaulted Palestinians and torched their
olive groves and homes. Referring to the International Criminal Court in the
Hague, the Palestinian foreign ministry warned that establishment of the nature
reserves would “speed up [Mr Bennett’s] appearance before the ICC as a war
criminal.”
Nonetheless, the settler right is growing ever bolder on the annexation issue –
as evidenced by Israel’s increasingly fraught ties with neighbouring Jordan.
King Abullah II recently declared relations with Israel at an “all-time low”.
Meanwhile, Ephraim Halevy, a former head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, blamed
Israel for showing “contempt towards Jordan” and creating a crisis that
jeopardised the two countries’ 1994 peace treaty, a legacy of the Oslo peace
process. If Israel annexes large swaths of the West Bank, stymying Palestinian
statehood, that could unleash waves of unrest among the kingdom’s majority
population – Palestinians made refugees by Israel during the 1948 and 1967 wars.
It could also provoke a mass exodus of West Bank Palestinians into Jordan.
Senior Jordanian officials recently told a former Israeli journalist, Ori Nir,
that they viewed annexation as an “existential threat” to their country.
In November the Jordanian military conducted a drill against an invasion on its
western flank – from Israel’s direction – that included the mock blowing up of
bridges over the River Jordan.
The Israeli right would be only too delighted to see King Abdullah in trouble.
It has long harboured a dream of engineering the destruction of Hashemite rule
as a way to transform Jordan, instead of the occupied territories, into the
locus of a Palestinian state.
According to Israeli analysts, the right perceives itself as at a historic
crossroads.
It can annex most of the West Bank and impose an unmistakeable apartheid rule
over a restless, rebellious Palestinian population. Or it can realise its
Greater Israel ambitions by helping to topple the Hashemite kingdom and
encourage the West Bank’s Palestinians to disperse into Jordan.
All Israeli rightwingers need is a nod of approval from the White House. With Mr
Netanyahu desperate to pull a rabbit out of his hat, and with an obliging patron
installed in Washington, there is reason enough for them to believe that the
stars may finally be aligned.
*Jonathan Cook is a freelance journalist in Nazareth
Iran’s wounded rulers bring region to the boil
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 19/2020
Despite the ayatollahs blood-thirstily demanding vengeance, the consequences of
Qassem Soleimani’s killing aren’t particularly impacting the Western world, or
even overseas-based US forces. Rather, they are playing out in the cities of
Lebanon and Iraq, and even Iran itself. Political tensions are boiling and
casualties are mounting.
Three months into the Lebanese uprising and confrontations between the police
and protesters are taking an increasingly violent turn, with 400 casualties over
just 24 hours at the weekend. Meanwhile, with each new day we hear claims that a
government of “technocrats” is closer to being formed under Hezbollah’s choice
of prime minister, Hassan Diab. Yet protesters know that, as long as designated
ministers are beholden to key factions, the same corrupt, clientelistic
practices will continue. Indeed, Gebran Bassil, Hassan Nasrallah and other
self-interested factions are furiously competing to maximize their share of
seats and perpetuate their monopolization of power and resources.
The Americans have finally woken up and begun putting pressure on the parties;
emphasizing that support can only resume if a clean, competent and independent
government is formed. The World Bank and other major donors are ready to roll
out cash injections of billions of dollars if the requisite reforms are
introduced. Yet Tehran deliberately throws spanners in the works because, from
its point of view, it is better Lebanon be a conflict-blighted, bankrupt basket
case than it opens its doors to Western assistance.
Meanwhile, rumors are flying that Hezbollah activists have been steering the
rioting and attacks on public buildings, hoping to terrorize citizens into
believing that the best they can hope for is to re-embrace the corrupt,
sectarian, impoverished status quo.
About 300 Lebanese banks and ATMs have been attacked by masked assailants. Banks
have been the focus of public anger because they exemplify the unhealthy
relationship between money and politics. A kleptocratic class has bled the
economy white, triggering a financial crisis that elites have exacerbated by
smuggling their ill-gotten wealth outside the country. With the currency in
freefall, ordinary Lebanese are obstructed from withdrawing their hard-eared
savings.
In the wake of Soleimani’s killing, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is reportedly
having such difficulty recruiting a new evil mastermind of overseas subversion
that he is considering appointing a man who has spent the last 14 years hiding
deep underground — Hassan Nasrallah. Israel would be elated to finally get a
chance to target him. Despite the many Nasrallah fanboys among Iraqi militants,
powerful paramilitary chiefs like Hadi Al-Amiri would not be happy at being
placed under the command of a pocket-sized warlord from little Lebanon. While
fighting in Syria, Al-Amiri’s Badr Brigades similarly rejected Hezbollah’s
leadership — they had their own chains of command who only took orders from
generals who spoke Farsi.
Panicky and contradictory statements reflect the decrepit confusion befalling
the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
In a week in which Hezbollah in its entirety was designated as a terrorist
organization by the UK, Nasrallah had nothing substantive to say in his speech
about Lebanon’s manifold crises. Instead, he is already implausibly masquerading
as de facto overlord of Iraq — demanding that US troops must leave peacefully or
“in coffins.” In a bizarre attack against Iraq’s Kurds, Nasrallah bragged that
Masoud Barzani had been “shaking in fear” in the face of Daesh’s 2014 advances.
Nasrallah demanded that Kurds thank Soleimani for saving them from Daesh.
“You’ve forgotten that for years you haven’t seen the sunlight,” one Kurdish
spokesman retorted.
In reality, Barzani’s Peshmerga proved infinitely more effective in fighting
Daesh than Soleimani’s proxies, who were too busy looting and burning citizens’
homes to do much fighting. Nasrallah may have bitten off more than he can chew
in Iraq, where rival Shiite militants and gangster warlords are already fighting
one another for supremacy in the wake of Soleimani’s death.
Such was the tsunami of domestic anger triggered by Iran shooting down a plane
full of its own citizens that Khamenei last week emerged from semi-retirement
(he hasn’t delivered a Friday sermon in eight years) with a speech overflowing
with threats and bluster. He incoherently asserted that the Quds Force was a
“humanitarian organization,” meddling in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq for
the glorious goal of defending Iran. Iran’s enemies were exploiting the plane
strike to undermine the Islamic Republic’s reputation, he spluttered — although
the regime has been doing an excellent job of this without outside help.
Khamenei was so stupefied by recent events that he declared: “What took place
could not have been the work of any human actor, only the hand of God.” Indeed,
Soleimani had so much blood on his hands that perhaps divine retribution did
catch up with him. Khamenei and Nasrallah similarly eulogized the 2006 war as
“nasr ilahi” (divine victory), despite Lebanon being reduced to a pile of
smoking ruins.
Regarding the rockets that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ineffectually
fired at US bases (for which Iran’s media farcically boasted the deaths of 80
Americans), Khamenei fulminated that Iran “possesses spiritual strengths to
respond to the world’s biggest bullying power with an almighty slap in the
face.” Following the strike, Trump — who receives worse daily slaps in the face
from his former officials — tweeted with uncharacteristic sangfroid that “All is
well.”
After European states last week pulled the plug on the nuclear deal, President
Hassan Rouhani threatened their troops and asserted that Iran was now free to
pursue its nuclear program. Impeccable logic; until the ayatollahs wake to find
their nuclear sites blown to hell by Israeli airstrikes.
Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif quipped that Iranians took to the streets
because they were “lied to for a couple days” — more like the last 40 years.
Indeed, one state TV presenter resigned last week, begging viewers to “forgive
me for 13 years of lying to you.”
This is a truly miserable time to live in Iran. According to US statistics, a
quarter of young Iranians are unemployed, inflation exceeds 40 percent, and the
economy is expected to contract by a further 14 percent in 2020. Pity the
finance officials scratching their heads over how to draft the upcoming state
budget, following a collapse in oil revenue of more than 80 percent —
particularly given the privileged slices of the budget that won’t be seeing any
cuts.
As regional states disintegrate, this is the worst moment for a void in global
leadership. Alongside Trump’s sledgehammer-wielding, bull-in-a-china-shop
approach to foreign policy, the Europeans have forgotten about the region
altogether, while Russia, Turkey, Iran and China squabble over the remaining
nooks and crannies of scorched earth. If there was any justice, proxies like
Nasrallah, Al-Amiri and Qais Al-Khazali would be tried for treason, having sold
out their countrymen and wreaked death and destruction in their service of a
foreign power.
Yet perhaps the moment of reckoning is coming sooner than we realize. Panicky
and contradictory statements reflect the decrepit confusion befalling the
Islamic Republic’s leadership. Khamenei can trumpet the threadbare achievements
of his “resistance economy” all he likes, but the only thing he’s resisting
these days is the aspirations of his own people.
Like rats deserting a sinking ship, when the Islamic Republic ultimately does
implode, Tehran’s region-wide traitors and lackeys will be packing suitcases
overflowing with stolen money and rushing to catch the first flight to
Venezuela, while Iraqis and Lebanese celebrate their new-found freedom. With
fresh recollections of how Muammar Qaddafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh met their
miserable ends, Nasrallah, Al-Amiri and Al-Khazali may even prefer throwing
themselves at the mercy of Israel’s prison system, rather than face the wrath of
their own people.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
Urgent action on inequality can close SDG gap
Kevin Watkin/Arab News/January 19/2020
As global business and political leaders gather in Davos for the World Economic
Forum’s annual meeting, they should ask themselves one big question: Will the
world achieve the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030? Or
will the SDGs — with their targets for eradicating extreme poverty, ending
preventable child deaths, expanding educational opportunity, and averting a
climate disaster — join the long list of enthusiastically endorsed global
pledges that go unfulfilled?
Those suffering from early new-decade SDG blues might take comfort from Harvard
psychologist Steven Pinker. Building on the core theme of his influential book
“Enlightenment Now,” and citing a familiar barrage of statistics on human
progress, Pinker has offered an upbeat assessment: “Progress toward (the SDGs)
is continuing,” he wrote. “It is unlikely to do a sudden U-turn.”
He is right, up to a point. Since 2000, there have been extraordinary
improvements in human development indicators. Poverty has been decreasing at
historically unprecedented rates: The share of the world’s population living on
less than $1.90 per day has fallen from 28 percent to 10 percent. The risk of
children born in Africa dying before their fifth birthday has been halved,
saving millions of young lives. Out-of-school numbers have fallen dramatically,
and gender gaps in school attendance are shrinking. More than 1.6 billion people
have gained access to clean drinking water. Such achievements refute the
pessimism that often pervades public debates about aid and international
development.
So far so good. But here’s the catch: If progress over the next 10 years mirrors
that of the last decade, the world will fall catastrophically short of the 2030
targets.
Consider child survival. On current trends, there will still be more than 4
million child deaths worldwide in 2030. The vast majority of these fatalities
could be prevented through improved nutrition and basic health care
interventions. But progress toward eradicating malnutrition, which is implicated
in half of child deaths worldwide, has been glacial, and millions of children
are living beyond the reach of health systems. Pneumonia, which is now the
single biggest infectious killer of children, claiming a life every 40 seconds,
can be prevented with vaccination and treated with basic antibiotics (costing
less than $0.50) and oxygen. Yet the fatality count is falling far too slowly.
There is a similar yawning gap between current trends and the 2030 targets for
education. Although governments have committed to ensuring universal secondary
schooling and improved learning, progress toward universal primary education has
stalled. In an increasingly knowledge-based global economy, a combination of
restricted access to education and abysmal learning outcomes will leave 1
billion children lacking the skills they need to flourish, and that their
countries need to drive dynamic and inclusive growth.
If progress over the next 10 years mirrors that of the last decade, the world
will fall catastrophically short.
Likewise, for all the success in combating poverty, past performance is no guide
to future outcomes. The pace of progress has slowed, and the goal of eliminating
extreme poverty by 2030 is drifting out of reach. That is largely because of
slow growth, inequality, and demographic trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the
number of people living in poverty is increasing. Research by the Overseas
Development Institute suggests that more than 300 million African children will
be living below the $1.90-per-day threshold in 2030 — and these children will
account for more than half of the world’s poor.
The specter of climate change threatens the SDGs just as surely as it does the
receding snow line around Davos. If the 2015 Paris climate agreement held out
the promise of concerted international action to limit global warming, last
month’s COP25 climate change conference in Madrid was a case study in inertia.
The emissions gap between current policies and those needed to keep global
warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is widening, and the world’s poorest and most
vulnerable people are bearing the brunt of the consequences, as the recent
droughts in Zambia and the Horn of Africa illustrate.
This is the decade of no return for the climate emergency. Failure to price
carbon out of the world’s economies, safeguard carbon sinks, and — critically —
protect the world’s poor against the effects of global warming that are now
irreversible will first slow, then stall and reverse gains in poverty reduction,
nutrition and health.
We cannot allow these challenges’ daunting scale to foster passive acceptance of
the inevitability of the SDGs’ failure. Nor should we tolerate the paralyzing
complacency that now pervades gatherings like Davos, World Bank-International
Monetary Fund meetings, and UN summits. There is an alternative.
Nothing would do more to bring the SDG targets within reach than a concerted
drive to narrow the social disparities currently acting as a brake on progress.
To take one example, closing the gap in national death rates between children
from the richest and poorest 20 percent of the world’s population would save
more than 2 million lives between now and 2030. That will require further
investment in universal health coverage, more equitable public spending and
service provision, and greater emphasis on the diseases that kill the poorest
children.
Greater equity is the rocket fuel for achieving the SDGs. Instead of issuing
vague pronouncements about “leaving no one behind,” governments should report on
how quickly they are reducing inequalities.
International action has a critical role to play. Later this month, Save the
Children, UNICEF and other partners will convene a global forum on pneumonia
aimed at expanding access to life-saving interventions. Toward the end of this
year, the UK and Japan will host global summits on climate and malnutrition,
respectively. And former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the UN special envoy
for global education, has developed a proposal for a new international financing
mechanism that could boost education spending by $10 billion. These initiatives
represent real opportunities.
Galvanizing action on the SDGs would narrow the chasm between the human
condition we can achieve and the world we tolerate. We need smart politics, new
partnerships, and bold campaigning. Success is not guaranteed — but failure to
act is not an option.
*Kevin Watkins is CEO of Save the Children UK.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
Turkey’s actions in Libya restricted by other foreign
actors
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/January 19/2020
Turkey got involved in the Libyan crisis when an opportunity to do so arose. It
was alienated from the cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean by other
littoral countries. Despite the fact that Turkey is the country with the longest
coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, its neighbors had shared the entire sea
space among themselves, not leaving any maritime jurisdiction to Ankara except
in its territorial waters around the bay of Antalya.
This was mostly due to the fact that Turkey’s relations with the countries of
the region were at their lowest level. It had no ambassador in three of the most
important Middle Eastern capitals — Cairo, Tel Aviv and Damascus — and does not
recognize the Republic of Cyprus.
The partitioning of the maritime jurisdiction area without taking into account
Turkey’s wishes was a wakeup call for Ankara to make a move that it had to do
long ago. This coincided with the dire need of Libya’s UN-backed Government of
National Accord (the Tripoli government) to look for a friendly country that
could help rescue it. The fact that the Tripoli government was dominated by
likeminded Muslim Brotherhood-supporting deputies became an additional incentive
for Turkey to strike a deal.
The complications for Turkey started to surface after it had made its move.
Russia is also involved in the Libyan crisis on the side of the Tobruk
government, and the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner Group were the most
efficient fighting units at the service of Gen. Khalifa Haftar. Therefore, there
were risks of clashes between Turkish and Russian soldiers.
To avoid such a scenario, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian
counterpart Vladimir Putin decided, during their encounter in Istanbul on Jan.
8, to invite the fighting sides to agree a cease-fire. However, it could not be
achieved, mainly because of Haftar’s hesitance or delaying tactics. He first
ignored the call for a cease-fire and seized the city of Sirte. He then agreed
to go to Moscow to negotiate a suspension of hostilities. An agreement seemed to
be emerging from the negotiations, but Haftar asked for time to reflect and left
without signing up. He probably needed to consult the tribal chiefs who were
supporting him. The complications for Turkey started to surface after it had
made its move. There is an ongoing controversy over whether or not — according
to the Skhirat agreement of December 2015 — the memorandum of understanding that
the Tripoli government has signed with Turkey has to be ratified by Parliament.
The Tobruk government claims that the agreement is not valid because it has not
been ratified by lawmakers. Turkey and Qatar are, so far, the only two countries
that support the Tripoli government, which is also backed by the UN, but this
support may not be sufficient to uphold it.
Because of the multitude of foreign actors operating in the country, it is
difficult to tell what will happen next, but, even if Haftar fails to seize the
city of Tripoli and its environs, the biggest part of Libya’s oil resources are
already under his control. The actors that control oil sources in the country
will hold the key to solving the crisis. Haftar will do everything to keep this
key in his possession. For Turkey, there are two possible outcomes. The US and
EU are expected to do what they can to stop Russia’s growing role in Libya and,
if this happens, the leading role may be transferred to them. They may then
contain Turkey and Qatar’s role in Libya. If Russia’s role cannot be curtailed,
its Wagner Group mercenaries will put stronger pressure on the Tripoli
government. As a result, Turkey and Qatar will face tougher resistance from
Haftar’s forces.
Many countries are keeping their options open because they don’t want to bet on
a losing horse. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, commenting on Haftar’s
attitude, fell short of blaming him outright. This is a sign that Russia is not
entirely opposed to Haftar’s attitude. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said
that he expects Russia to solve the problem, which means that Turkey’s freedom
of action in Libya has its limits.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and a founding member of the
ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Khamenei struggling to prove regime has legitimacy in Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 19/2020
Iran’s paramount leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on Iran’s
domestic and foreign policies, is facing one of the most volatile and difficult
years since he was appointed as the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader in 1989.
Khamenei and his hard-line base are in turmoil because of the developments that
have taken place this month. Firstly, one of Khamenei’s closest friends and his
confidant, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, was unexpectedly killed in an airstrike
ordered by US President Donald Trump on Jan. 3.
Not only was the death of Soleimani considered to be a personal loss to the
supreme leader, who shed tears at the Quds Force commander’s funeral, but the
incident was also a significant humiliation for Khamenei’s regime, which
constantly attempts to project power to other nations and seeks superiority and
pre-eminence in the Middle East.
Khamenei attempted to take advantage of the situation by rallying the Iranian
people behind the flag of the Islamic Republic. This was important for him
because his government has been troubled by regular protests and demonstrations
for the last two years. As a result, the supreme leader tried to project to the
world that his political establishment and system of “Velayat-e faqih”
(Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) still enjoys legitimacy inside the country.
Many people did come to Soleimani’s funeral, which was a political victory from
Khamenei’s perspective. This is why his speeches concentrated on boasting about
the people’s support. For example, in a meeting with the people of Qom on Jan.
8, he said: “(Soleimani’s) martyrdom showed the whole world that the revolution
is alive in our country. Some people wanted to pretend that the revolution is
over and that it is dead — of course, some people are still trying to make this
happen. However, his martyrdom showed that the revolution is alive.”
But Khamenei’s jubilance did not last long as, a few days later, many people in
Iran turned against the regime once again when the theocratic establishment was
compelled to acknowledge that it shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing
176 innocent men, women and children.
As a result, Khamenei became the target of people’s anger. Protesters chanted,
“Our shame, our decrepit leader,” “Death to Khamenei,” and an angry crowd in
front of Amirkabir University in Tehran chanted, “Commander-in-chief (Khamenei)
resign, resign.” People also objected to Khamenei’s revolutionary ideals,
including his anti-American policy. “They are lying that our enemy is America,
our enemy is right here,” some were heard chanting.
In the weeks and months to come, expect Khamenei to instruct the regime to be
more repressive, aggressive and violent
Meanwhile, Trump took to Twitter in an attempt to show the world that Khamenei
had lost his legitimacy. He tweeted, in a post that was also translated to
Farsi: “To the leaders of Iran — DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have
already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the world is watching.” Trump
added: “More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and
let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!”
Khamenei immediately turned his attentions to the protests and the regime took
measures to crack down on the demonstrators with brute force. In addition, to
prevent the protests from endangering the ruling mullahs’ hold on power, the
Iranian authorities — which at first denied any involvement in the downing of
the Ukrainian jet — declared they had arrested those responsible. Iranian
judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said “some individuals” were arrested
after “extensive investigations.”
While some may express hope that the latest developments and protests might
compel the Iranian regime to make concessions and address popular grievances,
history shows us that the opposite is more likely to be true. In the weeks and
months to come, expect Khamenei to instruct the regime to be more repressive,
aggressive and violent.
This is due to the fact that, from the perspective of Iran’s supreme leader,
concessions only manifest weakness. This is the only modus operandi that
Khamenei has been familiar with since the establishment of the Islamic Republic
in 1979. This is also the only strategy that Khamenei’s military organizations —
including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Quds Force and their
affiliated organizations — have been trained to carry out.
Khamenei is facing serious turmoil after four decades of ruling with an iron
fist. He is struggling to show the international community that his government
still enjoys legitimacy inside Iran, as protests and chants against him keep
surfacing. He is also failing to counter the US sanctions and bring his
government out of economic and political isolation.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a
leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the
International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
What the world’s movers and shakers will talk about this
week
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/January 19/2020
World leaders will begin arriving on Monday for the 50th annual meeting of the
World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss alpine town of Davos. Fifty years is a
huge benchmark for the organization founded by Klaus Schwab with the aim of
“improving the state of the world.”
When WEF began it was much smaller than the event that will draw 3,000 delegates
this year, and focused on Europe and business. Now prominent figures from all
walks of life share the podium; business grandees, political heavyweights, civil
society leaders and of course the media, who gain unparalleled access to the
delegates in a relaxed atmosphere.
US President Donald Trump will attend this year, and speak on Tuesday, the
opening day. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Central Bank president
Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, Finland’s prime
minister Sanna Marin, UNAIDS director Winnie Byanyima and environmental activist
Greta Thunberg are among hundreds of high-level speakers.
This year’s agenda focuses on seven core themes — how to save the planet,
society and the future of work, tech for good, fairer economies, better
business, healthy futures, and beyond geopolitics.
The global elite are more optimistic about the economic outlook than they were a
year ago, now that phase 1 of the US-China trade agreement has been signed, but
we are not out of the woods yet. The US China trade war has sent ripples through
the global economy, especially to open trading nations. While the
US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (for which read NAFTA II) has passed both houses of
Congress and will soon be signed by the president, Europe is holding its breath
for Trump to unleash his fury over the US-EU trade relationship. This would be
particularly bad news for Germany, whose car industry is heavily integrated with
the US, both as an export market and as a production site. Germany has already
suffered from the fallout of the US-China trade war, so much so that its economy
narrowly avoided a technical recession last summer. It exports mainly capital
goods and cars to China. Brexit also looms large over Europe. That said, UK
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not attending Davos, and nor are any of his
ministers.
The killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the downing of the Ukrainian
passenger jet in Tehran have brought geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to
the fore. We may collectively have forgotten about northeast Asia, but North
Korea stays on top of the agenda in Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan.
Davos provides time out for many leaders from different walks of life. It gives
them the space to discuss important issues in public as well as behind closed
doors. It that sense, the forum truly achieves its objective of “improving the
state of the world.”
The environment has come to the forefront of collective apprehension. Typhoons,
wildfires and floods have dominated the headlines. Barely a week passes without
the release of a new report on the acceleration of climate change. Even without
those reports, striking schoolchildren and demonstrations by Extinction
Rebellion would not have allowed us to forget the climate emergency. In that
context it is important that the forum’s international business council will
release a universal Environmental, Social and Governance scorecard.
The future of work will get a lot of attention: WEF’s annual meeting in 2016 was
among the first gatherings to draw attention to “Industry 4.0,” or the fourth
industrial revolution, and how artificial intelligence and robotics will change
the nature of work. The debate has picked up pace since then. For instance, the
Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh — “Davos in the desert” — devoted a large
part of its gathering last year to this topic.
Many criticize Davos for being elitist, and it probably is, but the world has
always been run by elites of sorts. The leaders from business, politics and
civil society who attend all constitute the cream of the crop in their fields.
However, Schwab has done a fine job widening the circle from business to
politics, and then to civil society. The organization’s global agenda councils
search far and wide to assemble relevant topics and participants. WEF’s
scholarly reports are well researched and relevant. Last but not least, the
forum has given many young leaders visibility and brought many issues to
prominence; Greta Thunberg’s environmental advocacy might never have been so
successful had it not been for her first appearance on the mountain top last
year.
Davos provides time out for many leaders from different walks of life. It gives
them the space to discuss important issues in public as well as behind closed
doors. It that sense, the forum truly achieves its objective of “improving the
state of the world” — or at least trying to do so.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources
Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim
Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/January 19/2020
His troubling numbers could be accurate given Iran’s past JCPOA violations and
large number of operational centrifuges.
On January 16, in live remarks broadcast on Iranian state television, President
Hassan Rouhani stated that his country was enriching more uranium today than
before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. If true, this represents an
extraordinary ramp-up in its monthly enriched uranium production since the
International Atomic Energy Agency’s last accounting visit on November 3. Such
high production levels were the main impetus for brokering the nuclear agreement
in the first place, since Iran’s breakout time—that is, how long it would need
to produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon—had become frighteningly
short as a result.
A closer look at pre-JCPOA data can provide a baseline for Rouhani’s assertion.
From May 2012 to May 2014, Iran was producing enriched uranium at an average
rate of 232 kg per month (this figure applies to material enriched to less than
5%; for an explanation of enrichment percentages and their relation to potential
weaponization, see The Washington Institute’s glossary of essential nuclear
terminology). It used approximately 9,000 IR-1 (or first-generation) centrifuges
at its main Natanz facility for this effort. When production began to ramp down
at the end of 2015 in anticipation of the JCPOA being implemented, the rate fell
to its lowest monthly level, around 156 kg (the JCPOA was agreed to in July
2015, but not implemented until January 2016).
In the most recent IAEA report, based on the period August 19-November 3, 2019,
Iran’s stockpile grew by approximately 52 kg per month, if one combines its
3.67% and 4.5% enriched uranium. To bring its stockpile up to pre-JCPOA levels
by the time of Rouhani’s latest claim, Iran would have had to increase that
monthly enrichment rate at least threefold since November (to 156 kg), if not
more (e.g., to 232 kg, depending on one’s definition of “pre-JCPOA”).
Rouhani’s comments may not be hyperbole. Given what is known about Iran’s
centrifuges, reaching pre-JCPOA levels was always a plausible feat once it
decided to start violating various JCPOA restrictions. Specifically, it could
have achieved these levels by increasing its use of IR-1 centrifuges, and/or by
running its advanced centrifuges, which are supposed to have significantly
higher output than the IR-1. Iran announced that it would begin using advanced
centrifuges several months ago, and the IAEA has confirmed that they are running
and accumulating uranium. Since the advanced machines were not accumulating
uranium pre-JCPOA, it is unclear how well they work, but if operating as
expected they could explain the bulk of Rouhani’s claimed ramp-up.
On January 5, Iranian officials alluded to increasing their use of IR-1
centrifuges as part of a “fifth step” away from their JCPOA commitments.
Factoring in how many IR-1 machines Iran has replaced since the start of the
JCPOA due to normal wear and tear, it may have up to 4,600 additional machines
available for use. Combined with the 5,060 already in use, that would allow Iran
to ramp back up to the 9,156 IR-1 centrifuges it was using prior to the JCPOA.
And if advanced centrifuges are added to the mix, it could easily surpass its
pre-JCPOA production of enriched uranium.
The exact details behind Rouhani’s claim will become clear when the next IAEA
report on Iran comes out in early February. It will be the first such report
issued under the new IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, and the first to reveal how
efficient the advanced centrifuges are at enriching uranium.
The next troubling step Iran could take would be to increase enrichment from
4.5% to 19.75%, which is technically quite close to weapons-grade uranium. If
Tehran is able to grow its stockpile as quickly as Rouhani claims, and if it
boosts enrichment to 19.75%, this would raise the same concerns that existed
prior to the JCPOA about its potentially short breakout time.
*Elana DeLozier is a research fellow in The Washington Institute’s Bernstein
Program on Gulf and Energy Policy.
Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and
Washington Should Take It
Charles Thépaut and Elana DeLozier/The Washington Institute/January 19/2020
By triggering the nuclear deal’s dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France,
and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and
Iran return to the negotiating table.
In a press conference following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, President
Trump reaffirmed his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and
asked, once again, for European countries to leave the nuclear deal. Meanwhile,
Tehran announced what it called a “fifth and final remedial step” away from its
commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response, the
British, French, and German foreign ministers stated on January 14 that they
would trigger the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism (DRM).
At the same time, however, the E3 clarified that they are not joining the Trump
administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which has steadily intensified ever
since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed unilateral
sanctions in 2018. Contrary to U.S. claims, the European decision will not
immediately provoke “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran (though that scenario could
unfold later if the E3 plan fails and Iran’s violations go before the UN
Security Council). Instead, Europe is maintaining its evenhanded position
somewhere between Washington and Tehran in order to preserve the possibility of
new negotiations, on both the nuclear program and other regional issues.
THE LONG MARCH TO THE DRM
The E3 have sought to withhold the DRM option as their last resort since May
2019, when Iran began to withdraw from certain JCPOA commitments in three-month
intervals. Tehran’s strategy was sparked by the Trump administration’s
escalating pressure—that same month, the United States canceled a waiver that
had allowed the Iranians to sell their enriched uranium, essentially forcing
them to either stop enrichment altogether or exceed the JCPOA limits. They chose
the latter path, and have taken other “remedial steps” since then: exceeding the
stockpile limits on heavy water; enriching uranium to higher levels;
disregarding restrictions on centrifuge R&D; resuming enrichment at the highly
fortified Fordow facility; and increasing the number of operational centrifuges,
including advanced models.
The latest step, announced on January 5, suggests that Iran will no longer abide
by any technical limits on its centrifuges. This would allow it to increase the
amount of enriched uranium it produces each month, substantially lowering the
amount of time it would need to “break out” to weapons-grade material if it
chose to take that path. Indeed, on January 16, President Hassan Rouhani stated
that his country was producing more enriched uranium today than before the JCPOA—a
disturbing claim given how short its estimated breakout time was in 2015 (for
more on Rouhani's statement, see the technical companion piece to this
PolicyWatch). The next report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, due in
early February, will shed light on exactly how much Iran is ramping up its
technical capacity.
Fortunately, Tehran has not used the nuclear portfolio to punish the United
States for Soleimani’s assassination. Although he was killed just two days
before the January 5 centrifuge announcement, that “fifth remedial step” had
been expected well before then. Tehran’s relative restraint is likely rooted in
its eagerness to remain in the JCPOA, since it still receives important benefits
from doing so—in particular, avoiding the reinstatement of certain EU and UN
sanctions. In the longer term, the Iranians may aim to wait out Trump, perhaps
hoping that a new president will replace him next year and reenter the JCPOA. In
the meantime, they can start selling weapons again this October, when various UN
restrictions on such activity expire.
TRIGGERING THE DRM IS A NECESSARY RISK
Over the past few months, the United States repeatedly asked European leaders to
acknowledge Iran’s noncompliance with the JCPOA by engaging the DRM, but they
were hesitant to do so until now. In their view, the JCPOA is the only viable
framework to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, so they have given
Tehran every chance to come back into full compliance. Triggering the DRM is not
without risks, since failure could collapse the JCPOA altogether, spark new
escalation in the region, and make future U.S. talks even less likely. Yet
European officials seem to believe that taking this step now is crucial because
competing U.S. and Iranian pressures have already put the nuclear deal in a
perilous position. The DRM is also their best option for preserving the E3’s
credibility and avoiding further military escalation.
Accordingly, after Iran made its centrifuge announcement on January 5, the E3
reaffirmed their commitment to the JCPOA, restated their goal of preventing the
country from acquiring nuclear weapons, and blamed Tehran for stoking regional
instability. They then triggered the DRM, a flexible process that allows any
JCPOA party to refer an issue to the Joint Commission for resolution if it
believes another party is failing to meet its commitments. All of the
parties—Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the EU—now have
approximately one month to decide how to deal with Tehran’s violations (or
longer if they agree on an extension).
This is an opportunity that Iran and the United States should seize if they want
to avoid further escalation. European leaders are hoping that Tehran’s desire to
remain in the JCPOA will force it to compromise during the DRM process. This
could lay the foundation for new Iranian negotiations with Washington, initially
based on salvaging the JCPOA framework, then broadening to encompass other
issues. Yet this approach will only work if the Trump administration provides
realistic options that Europe can present as grounds for getting everyone back
to the table.
RESUMING TALKS: WHY AND HOW?
The United States and Europe agree that Iran’s activities in Iraq, Syria, and
Yemen pose a threat to regional security and should be on the table, as should
its ballistic missile program. French president Emmanuel Macron has taken a
number of steps to resume talks based on those mutual interests, even convincing
Trump and Rouhani to agree on a four-point plan at the UN General Assembly last
September. Yet a string of escalatory incidents, including a militia riot at the
U.S. embassy in Iraq, the killing of Soleimani, and Iran’s retaliatory missile
attack, have made it difficult to convert those steps into a negotiation.
In addition, the outbreak of new protests in Iran has led some to argue that now
is not the time to pursue talks with the government. This contention is
short-sighted, however—it is entirely possible to support the aspirations of
demonstrators while simultaneously preparing for serious negotiations. Exploring
diplomatic avenues is not contradictory to expressing solidarity with local
calls for transparency, democracy, and better governance; in fact, negotiations
would send a message to Iranians that their government has other options besides
further militarization.
President Trump has repeatedly indicated that he is in favor of making a deal
with Iran, and the E3 are counting on him to act accordingly. Now that the DRM
has been activated, Washington should use the resultant pressure on Iran to make
additional proposals and open space for negotiations that go beyond the nuclear
issue. Europe has always regarded the nuclear deal as the first indispensable
pillar of a larger deal with Iran, and the DRM is an opportunity for the United
States to build toward the latter instead of tearing down the former. For
example, if the Trump administration offers limited new sanctions waivers during
the DRM process, it would not only help European officials in bringing Iran back
to the table, but also send a message that the goal of the maximum pressure
campaign is new talks, not regime change—a crucial element of pre-negotiation
confidence-building.
Some perceive the DRM decision as an instance of Europe caving in, whether to
Washington or Tehran. In terms of its actions over the past two years, however,
Europe has stayed united and fairly consistent in mediating between the two
sides, so it is now up to the U.S. and Iranian governments to meet the E3
halfway. So far, unfortunately, they have lashed out at Europe’s choice, with
the Trump administration calling for Europe to reimpose sanctions instead of the
DRM, and the Rouhani government threatening European soldiers abroad.
European countries have long warned that U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA would
weaken counterproliferation efforts, strengthen Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps, and fuel regional instability. In their view, those predictions
have come true, so it is now time to get serious about negotiations and stop the
uncontrolled game of countermeasures. Although the DRM is no magic pill, Iran
and the Trump administration need to realize that there are few if any good
options left for reaching a negotiated solution.
*Charles Thepaut, a resident visiting fellow at The Washington Institute,
previously worked for European diplomatic institutions in Syria, Iraq, Belgium,
France, Germany, and other countries. Elana DeLozier is a research fellow in the
Institute’s Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy.
Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut/The Washington Institute/January 19/2020
If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil
war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.
On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out
of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by
Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National
Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of
preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been
reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood
a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the
ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and
GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key
developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire
proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more
permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar
balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment).
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his
tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National
Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States
a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the
foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo;
working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire
at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the
Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April
despite European support to Salame.
Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional
government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four
legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to
rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar
started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United
Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and
international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring
resolution.
In February 2019, the two leaders met with Salame in the UAE but once again
failed to resolve their differences. Two months later, Haftar launched his
offensive against Tripoli, which has continued ever since. Quite simply, the
general has felt no need to compromise on his core demands so long as his
military position remains stronger than the GNA’s, his international backers
continue their support, and Sarraj remains relatively weak domestically and
internationally.
RENEWED SENSE OF URGENCY
Salame conceived the idea of a Berlin conference because Germany has not played
an active role in Libya’s recent wars and might therefore be viewed as a more
neutral peace broker. Supported by a more united European position, Merkel’s
diplomatic efforts began prior to Russia and Turkey’s recent military
moves—Putin deployed Wagner mercenaries on the frontlines to support Haftar in
September, and Erdogan deployed troops to Libya earlier this month after signing
a defense memorandum with the GNA in November.
The goal of the Berlin conference is to produce a unified international position
that can help the UN secretary-general and Salame achieve a political deal and
ultimately reunite Libya. According to German authorities, the event will
include senior officials from Algeria, Britain, China, Egypt, France, Italy, the
Republic of the Congo, Russia, Turkey, the UAE, and the United States. The UN,
European Union, African Union, and Arab League will also be represented. Leaders
expected to attend include Putin and Erdogan, along with Algerian president
Abdelmadjid Tebboune, British prime minister Boris Johnson, Egyptian president
Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, French president Emmanuel Macron, and Italian prime
minister Giuseppe Conte.
The conference will aim to endorse a pre-negotiated text of more than fifty
points addressing a host of issues: the creation of a military council from each
Libyan side to negotiate security issues, the formation of a new political body
representing all sides, and the creation of an economic team to deal with
controversial issues such as distributing oil resources, unifying economic
institutions, and reforming subsidies.
Step one, however, will be cementing the fragile ceasefire and, potentially,
designing a monitoring mechanism. It is difficult to imagine viable negotiations
taking place over Libya’s political, security, and economic future when the two
parties are still fighting. So far, the tentative ceasefire brokered by Putin
and Erdogan has mostly held since it went into effect on January 12. Yet each
side suspects the other is just exploiting the pause to reinforce its
frontlines—in the LNA’s case by bringing more arms and equipment from the east;
in the GNA’s case by receiving arms and personnel from Ankara, including
pro-Turkey fighters formerly engaged in Syria. Firming up the composition and
terms of a permanent ceasefire mechanism will be a key issue in Berlin and any
follow-up meetings.
EXPANDED U.S. ROLE
Whatever President Trump’s intention was when he called Haftar last April, his
outreach signaled support for the general’s offensive, despite the
administration’s subsequent calls for de-escalation. Washington has also held
important technical-level discussions on security and economic reform, but those
efforts have limited value in the context of the current war. Accordingly,
Pompeo and O’Brien should focus intently on achieving three main goals in the
coming days and weeks:
Press the principal foreign backers of each side to pause their military
support, giving negotiators a chance to formalize the ceasefire. That means
insisting that the UAE ground its drones and other aircraft supporting Haftar’s
operations, and that Turkey pause its supply of personnel, weapons, and
technology to the GNA. Pompeo needs to be clear with each interlocutor that
Washington takes the matter seriously, and that their behavior in Libya will
affect their bilateral relations with the United States.
Open a channel with Russia. To prevent Putin from embedding a Russian presence
in the South Mediterranean, Washington needs to engage Moscow on Libya. In the
past two weeks, Putin has once again demonstrated that he wants to be a
powerbroker in Libya, but he also seems more willing to secure relations with
both sides of the conflict instead of just backing Haftar. Pompeo can take
advantage of this interest—not to mention Haftar’s spurning of Putin’s agreement
in Moscow—by offering to negotiate a UN Security Council resolution that calls
for a ceasefire, and by backing the UN-led political negotiations.
Clearly endorse the UN process and offer monitoring assistance. The
administration should communicate explicit U.S. support for UN-led negotiations
on all three tracks (political, economic, and security). It should also offer
U.S. resources, primarily intelligence, to monitor the ceasefire. This includes
threatening to use existing sanctions authorities to punish actors that violate
its terms, whether foreign-based or Libyan.
The Berlin conference is a critical opportunity to at least pause Libya’s war.
If Washington misses it, there may not be another one until hundreds more are
killed and thousands more displaced.
*Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former director
for North Africa at the National Security Council. Charles Thepaut, a resident
visiting fellow at the Institute, previously worked for European diplomatic
institutions in Syria, Iraq, Belgium, France, Germany, and other countries.