LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 14/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Go and learn what this means, "I desire mercy, not sacrifice." For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners."
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 09/09-13: "As Jesus was walking along, he saw a man called Matthew sitting at the tax booth; and he said to him, ‘Follow me.’ And he got up and followed him. And as he sat at dinner in the house, many tax-collectors and sinners came and were sitting with him and his disciples. When the Pharisees saw this, they said to his disciples, ‘Why does your teacher eat with tax-collectors and sinners?’But when he heard this, he said, ‘Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick. Go and learn what this means, "I desire mercy, not sacrifice." For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 13-14/19
14th Of March Parties & Politicians Betrayal
US Official in Beirut to Underscore Concern about Hezbollah
Finance meeting headed by President Aoun in Baabda: The State is committed to preserving the rights of depositors, banks and bondholders
Protesters in Aley call for unity in confronting sectarian system
Israel says it uncovered sixth and last Hezbollah tunnel from Lebanon
Israeli Army Uncovers Sith Hezbollah Terror Tunnel, Completing Operation Northern Shield
AMAL Supporters Replace Libya Flag with AMAL Flag
Bassil: We only know February 6, 2006, so that unity alone prevails among the Lebanese
Khreis Hits Back after Bassil Dismisses 'February 6' Threats
Report: Berri Hardens Pro-Damascus Stance after Syrian Message
Qaouq: U.S. Visits to Lebanon, Region Won't Change Anything
Iran Denies Nasrallah Had a 'Heart Attack'
Jumblatt: There are positions that entail silence, not for fear but for the soul's ascension!
Ibrahim welcomes Hale in Yarzeh

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 13-14/19
White House asked for options to strike Iran, reports WSJ
White House Asked Pentagon for Military Options Against Iran, Report Says
Pompeo to Push for End to Gulf Dispute during Qatar Visit
Netanyahu confirms weekend strike by Israel on Iran target in Syria
Netanyahu Says Israeli Strike in Syria Hit Iranian Target
Israel retaliates after rocket fired into Gaza
600 people leave in first evacuation from Syria ISIS holdout
Death toll from Sudan protests rises to 24
Pentagon Official to Asharq Al-Awsat: US Syria Pullout Will Not Be Arbitrary
Iran Summons Poland Envoy over Next Month’s Summit
Police Obtain New Evidence in Netanyahu Corruption Ca
Egypt President Arrives in Jordan
Egypt, Greece Discuss Boosting Energy Cooperation

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 13-14/19
14th Of March Parties & Politicians Betrayal/Elias Bejjani/January 13/19
White House Asked Pentagon for Military Options Against Iran, Report Says/Haaretz/January 13/19
Consolidating Pakistan-UAE ties/Sabena Siddiqui/Al Arabiya/January 13/19
Investing in AI will determine future world superpowers/Shehab Al-Makahleh/Al Arabiya/January 13/19
Economists Get Serious About the Harm From Monopolies/Noah Smith/Bloomberg View/Bloomberg View/January 13/19
Brexiters Know a Bad Trade When They See One/Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg View/January 13/19
Lessons We Seem Unwilling to Learn/Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/January 13/19
Iran’s proposed budget betrays economic crisis/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 13/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 13-14/19
14th Of March Parties & Politicians Betrayal
Elias Bejjani/January 13/19
The 14th of March political parties and politicians in occupied joined the occupier, Hezbollah, succumbed for its Faramans (Degrees), betrayed the Peoples' revolution of the Cedars, swallowed all their promises and stepped over the Martyrs sacrifices. Meanwhile they are not an option at all. They all failed and ought to resign.

US Official in Beirut to Underscore Concern about Hezbollah
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 January, 2019/US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale was in Beirut on Sunday for talks with senior Lebanese officials on a full range of bilateral and regional issues, including Hezbollah’s role. Hale, who arrived in Beirut on Saturday, has returned to Lebanon in his new role to reaffirm strong US support for the Lebanese state, including its legitimate security institutions, as it continues to cope with significant challenges, the US Embassy said in a statement. “Hale will also underscore US concerns about Hezbollah’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon and the region, including the recent discovery of Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnels, which defy UN Security Council Resolution 1701, jeopardize the security of the Lebanese people, and undermine the legitimacy of Lebanon’s state institutions,” it said. "Hale has enduring ties with Lebanon and the Lebanese people after serving at the US Embassy in Beirut as a political officer, Deputy Chief of Mission, and Ambassador over the span of 27 years," the statement added.

Finance meeting headed by President Aoun in Baabda: The State is committed to preserving the rights of depositors, banks and bondholders
Sun 13 Jan 201/NNA - Caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil reassured, following a finance meeting chaired by President Michel Aoun at Baabda Palace this evening, that "the subject of restructuring the public debt is not proposed for discussion whatsoever," addding that "the Lebanese State is committed to preserving the rights of depositors, banks and sovereign bondholders."In this connection, Khalil confirmed that what is currently proposed is the implementation of the reforms associated with the budget of 2018 on one hand, and the commitments of the Lebanese State made at the Cedar Conference, on the other hand. Deliberations during the meeting centered mainly on the financial and economic conditions prevailing in the country. Attending at Baabda Palace were: Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Caretaker Finance Minister Ali Khalil, Caretaker Economy and Trade Minister Raed Khoury, Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee Head, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, and Banks Association Head Joseph Tarabey. On emerging, Minister Khalil read out the meeting's statement, which emphasized the following points:
1) The issue of restructuring the State's public debt is not proposed at all, and the Lebanese State is committed to safeguarding the rights of depositors, banks and holders of various sovereign debt securities, in compliance with the payment of interests on the specified dates without any other measure
2) Currently underway is the implementation of reforms affiliated to the budget of 2018 and the commitments of the Lebanese State made at the Cedar Conference, which include:
- Achieving public-private partnership
- Control of public expenditure, rationalization, reducing budget deficit and securing financial balance in the country
- Strengthening and diversifying the various productive sectors in Lebanon.

Protesters in Aley call for unity in confronting sectarian system
Sun 13 Jan 2019/NNA - A number of citizens from Aley and the Upper Metn region staged a sit-in outside the Serail of Aley on Sunday, marking the "National Day of Popular Revolution against the Authority of Corruption", a day of national dignity where they raised slogans and banners denouncing the performance of the political parties in power. Demonstrators marched from the Serail towards the Central Bank branch in Aley, where Socialist Party Member Saad al-Masri gave a word on behalf of participants condemning the current deteriorating conditions in the country, the increasing impoverishment and unemployment and widespread of corruption. "Let us be united in the face of this sectarian system, which is the main cause of all these negative consequences we are living. We will not let them feel comfortable while they are looking for quotas, awaiting the indication from abroad to form a government," said Masri, confirming that other sit-ins will follow in demand for change and reform.

Israel says it uncovered sixth and last Hezbollah tunnel from Lebanon
The Associated Press, Jerusalem/Sunday, 13 January 2019/Israel’s military says its troops have found the sixth and the last tunnel dug by Hezbollah militants for cross-border attacks and that its operation at the Lebanese border is now over. Military spokesman Jonathan Conricus says the final tunnel is the largest one discovered so far, running hundreds of meters (yards) from under a Lebanese home and deep into Israeli territory. Israel launched the “Operation Northern Shield” last month to detect and destroy what it called a vast network of Hezbollah tunnels aimed for militants to sneak across the border and carry out attacks. Israel and the United Nations say the tunnels violate a cease-fire resolution that ended a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. Conricus says the UN peacekeeping mission, known as UNIFIL, has been updated. Israel fought a devastating war against Hezbollah in 2006 that was halted by a UN-brokered truce. Hezbollah is the only group in Lebanon not to have disarmed after the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.

Israeli Army Uncovers Sith Hezbollah Terror Tunnel, Completing Operation Northern Shield
Jerusalem Post/January 13/19/The tunnel was hundreds of meters long and penetrated dozens of meters into Israeli territory. Twenty-three days after Israel launched Operation Northern Shield and uncovered the first tunnel dug by Hezbollah into northern Israel from southern Lebanon, the IDF has completed the destruction of a number of tunnels which infiltrated close to the community of Metulla. According to IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Ronen Manelis, the military destroyed the tunnels by filling them with material which would prevent the Shi’ite terrorist group from using them.

AMAL Supporters Replace Libya Flag with AMAL Flag
Naharnet/January 13/19/Supporters of the AMAL Movement have replaced a Libyan flag with their movement’s flag near the Seaside Arena venue in Beirut in protest at the invitation of Libya to an Arab economic summit that will be held in the capital later this month. Video footage shows a number of young men surrounding a flag pole near the venue. One of them mounts a ladder and starts removing the Libyan flag, cheered and instructed by his comrades. He then replaces it with an AMAL flag amid calls for “burning” the Libyan one. Tensions have surged in recent days over the issue of Libya’s participation. AMAL accuses the former regime of slain Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi of kidnapping its revered founder Imam Moussa al-Sadr during a visit to Libya in 1978. The case has strained Libyan-Lebanese ties for the past four decades and in recent days the invitation and talk of the possibility of freeing Gadhafi’s son Hannibal from Lebanese prisons have deepened tensions between AMAL and the Free Patriotic Movement.

Bassil: We only know February 6, 2006, so that unity alone prevails among the Lebanese
Sun 13 Jan 2019/NNA - Free Patriotic Movement Chief, Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, likened his Movement to the Lebanese Army in its "devotion to Lebanon." Speaking at the end of a closed meeting by the Movement at Mont La Salle this afternoon, Bassil said, "We only know February 6 in Mar Mikhael, and we do know the other February 6, for we were not involved...We held the February 6 Understanding so that there would only be unity and affinity between the Lebanese.""There are many who wish to harm us [FPM], but the stronger the attack, the more powerful we are," Bassil went on. "As for those Party members who worked against the FPM during the parliamentary elections, their termination decisions have begun," Bassil disclosed. He continued to address "those who hold grudges for failing to achieve parliamentary or ministerial seats," calling on them to "leave the Movement, and it shall go on."Bassil concluded by stating that the existence of barricades, debts and corruption was not in the days of the Free Patriotic Movement, stressing that "FPM worked to eliminate barriers, establish understanding and combat corruption."

Khreis Hits Back after Bassil Dismisses 'February 6' Threats
Naharnet/January 13/19/Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Sunday criticized warnings issued by Speaker Nabih Berri and officials from his AMAL Movement over the issue of inviting Libya to Beirut’s upcoming Arab economic summit. “A lot of parties want to target us, but we have to get stronger whenever the attack on us becomes fiercer,” Bassil told FPM cadres at the end of a closed-door seminar. “In history, we only know the February 6 date when the Mar Mikhail agreement was signed (with Hizbullah). We do not know the ‘other February 6,’’ the FPM chief added, in an apparent jab at AMAL. “We were not part of the first February 6 and we made the Feb. 6, 2006 agreement so that only unity and rapprochement prevail among the Lebanese. With President Michel Aoun, the only February 6 will be the February 6 of Mar Mikhail so that only accord prevails among the Lebanese,” Bassil added. “The FPM was not in power when the barricades, debt and corruption started. The FPM has sought to remove barricades, deepen accord and fight corruption,” the FPM chief went on to say. Berri has warned in recent days that the issue of inviting Libya to the economic summit is not a “joke.” “Let no one mess with us. If some have hinted that we might stage a ‘political February 6’, we say that we will stage a political and non-political February 6,” he cautioned, in remarks published by al-Akhbar newspaper. MP Hani Qobeissi of Berri’s AMAL Movement has also issued a similar warning. AMAL and a number of political parties had launched what they dub the “February 6 Uprising” against President Amin Gemayel’s rule in 1984. The main goal of the military confrontation with pro-Gemayel Lebanese Army units in western Beirut and parts of Mount Lebanon was to force the reversal of a peace treaty signed with Israel following its invasion of the country. MP Ali Khreis of Berri’s AMAL Movement meanwhile hit at Bassil on Sunday. “The minister certainly does not know the Feb. 6, 1984 date because he does not belong to the school of resistance, the school of giving and sacrifices that was founded by Imam Moussa al-Sadr and maintained by Speaker Nabih Berri,” Khreis said.

Report: Berri Hardens Pro-Damascus Stance after Syrian Message
Naharnet/January 13/19/Speaker Nabih Berri has increased his insistence on the representation of March 8’s Sunnis in the new government after receiving a “sharp-toned message from Damascus in the past few days,” a media report said. The message “admonished him for not standing by Syria’s close allies,” Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper quoted informed sources as saying in remarks published Sunday. “He has raised the level of his support for Syria’s attendance of Beirut’s Arab economic summit and he has also met with MP Abdul Rahim Mrad and other figures who are loyal to the Syrian regime after a long period of lack of communication with them,” the sources added.

Qaouq: U.S. Visits to Lebanon, Region Won't Change Anything
Naharnet/January 13/19/A senior Hizbullah official on Sunday downplayed visits by U.S. officials to Lebanon and the region, as U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale held talks in Beirut on the second day of his official visit to Lebanon. “The U.S. visits to Lebanon and the region will not change anything and will not conceal the scene of the Americans’ retreat in the region,” Hizbullah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq said. The visits “will not change the equations that have been established by the victories of the resistance and its axis, and America will not have any political gain in Lebanon at the expense of the resistance,” he added. “The equations of the resistance are deep-rooted and firm and cannot be shaken by any U.S. visits, statements or threats,” Qaouq went on to say. Hale has held talks with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and Army Commander General Joseph Aoun during his visit. He is scheduled to meet with the country’s top leaders in the coming hours. A U.S. embassy statement said Hale will “underscore U.S. concerns about Hizbullah’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon and the region, including the recent discovery of Hizbullah’s cross-border tunnels, which defy U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, jeopardize the security of the Lebanese people, and undermine the legitimacy of Lebanon’s state institutions.”

Iran Denies Nasrallah Had a 'Heart Attack'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/19/An Iranian official took to Twitter on Sunday to deny reports about Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s health. “The Zionist claims about the illness of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s secretary-general, and his suffering of a heart attack are the grand lie of the new year,” Hossein Amir Abdullahian, the international affairs adviser to the Iranian parliament speaker, tweeted. “The day on which Nasrallah and the leaders of the Palestinian resistance will pray at the al-Aqsa Mosque will inevitably come,” he added. Abdullahian remarks come after an Israeli journalist reposted a tweet by controversial Lebanese journalist Jerry Maher who lives outside Lebanon. The tweet says “Hizbullah is refusing to transfer Nasrallah to Syria to receive treatment in Damascus at the hands of Russian doctors.” “Iran has sent three doctors to Beirut, one of whom resides in Europe, to follow up on his health condition,” the tweet adds. Unconfirmed reports had years ago claimed that Nasrallah was battling cancer, an allegation that has never been verified.

Jumblatt: There are positions that entail silence, not for fear but for the soul's ascension!
Sun 13 Jan 2019/NNA - Socialist Progressive Party Chief, former MP and Minister Walid Jumblatt, said via his Twitter account on Sunday that "one is required in certain positions to maintain silence as if one did understand...or to ignore as if he has not seen...not out of fear but rather for the ascension of the soul." Jumblatt attached a caption to his tweet that read: "To a friend."

Ibrahim welcomes Hale in Yarzeh
Sun 13 Jan 2019/NNA - General Security Director General, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, met Sunday afternoon with US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale, accompanied by US Ambassador to Lebanon, Elizabeth Richard.
Talks reportedly dwelt on the southern border developments and the tension caused by the resumption of the Israeli enemy's building of the separation wall in the disputed border areas with Lebanon. Discussions also focused on the issue of maritime borders between Lebanon and the entity of the Israeli enemy, and the most recent developments in the region.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 13-14/19
White House asked for options to strike Iran, reports WSJ
Reuters, Washington/Sunday, 13 January 2019/The White House’s national security team last fall asked the Pentagon to provide it with options for striking Iran after a group of militants aligned with Tehran fired mortars into an area in Baghdad that is home to the US Embassy, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. The request by the National Security Council, which is led by John Bolton, sparked deep concern among Pentagon and State Department officials, the newspaper reported, citing current and former US officials. The Pentagon complied with the request, but it is not known whether the options for an Iran strike were also provided to the White House or if President Donald Trump knew about it. The decision to seek options striking Iran was prompted by an incident in September in which three mortars were fired into a diplomatic quarter in Baghdad, the newspaper said. The shells landed in an open lot and no one was hurt. State Department Secretary Mike Pompeo did not comment on the story when asked about it by reporters and a State Department spokeswoman declined to comment. A Pentagon spokesman did not have any immediate comment on the story and the White House and National Security Council could not be immediately reached. A spokesman for the National Security Council was quoted in the Wall Street Journal, however, as saying: “We continue to review the status of our personnel following attempted attacks on our embassy in Baghdad and our Basra consulate, and we will consider a full range of options to preserve their safety and our interests.”

White House Asked Pentagon for Military Options Against Iran, Report Says
Haaretz/January 13/19
The request, which a U.S. official said 'definitely rattled people,' was made after mortars launched by Iran-affiliated militants fell near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, The Wall Street Journal reports
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton requested the Pentagon to provide Washington with military options to strike Iran after three mortars launched by Iran-affiliated militants fell near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. The incident occurred in early September. No one was wounded, as the shells fell in an open lot, but the event apparently spurred Washington to discuss the possibility of a military response. "It definitely rattled people," a former senior White House official was quoted as saying. "People were shocked. It was mind-boggling how cavalier they were about hitting Iran. It is unclear whether U.S. President Donald Trump knew of Bolton's request or if concrete plans were drawn out for a strike, but according to the official, the Pentagon agreed to develop a set of options to attack Iran. In a series of interviews over the weekend, Eisenkot confirmed for the first time that Israel carried out thousands of attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. The attacks against Iranian targets, and not only on Hezbollah arms convoys, were authorized by the security cabinet in 2017."We noticed a significant change in Iran's strategy. Their vision was to have significant influence in Syria by building a force of up to 100,000 Shi'ite fighters from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. They built intelligence bases and an air force base within each Syrian air base,” he explained in his interview to the New York Times. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the matter on Sunday morning and said that Israel has carried out hundreds of attacks against Iranian and Hezbollah targets, confirming reports of an Israeli airstrike in Damascus on Friday night. Speaking at the start of the weekly government meeting, Netanyahu said the Israel Air Force attacked Iranian weapons depots at the Damascus International Airport in Syria over the weekend. "The accumulation of recent attacks proves that we are determined more than ever to take action against Iran in Syria," Netanyahu said.

Pompeo to Push for End to Gulf Dispute during Qatar Visit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/19/U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Qatar on Sunday pushing for an end to a diplomatic rift between Washington's Gulf allies on the latest leg of his Middle East tour. The top U.S. diplomat's visit to the small, energy-rich Gulf state comes amid a more than 18-month-old dispute pitting Riyadh and its allies against Doha. "It is time for old rivalries to end for the sake of the greater good of the region," Pompeo said on Thursday in Cairo, where he laid out the Middle East strategy of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. The secretary of state travelled to Doha from Abu Dhabi, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed on Saturday. Pompeo is later expected to head to Riyadh, where all eyes will be on a possible meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The visit comes just three months after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country's Istanbul consulate. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt -- all U.S. allies -- cut ties with Qatar in June 2017, accusing it of supporting terrorist groups and seeking closer ties to Saudi arch-rival Iran. Qatar -- also a U.S. ally -- denies the allegations and accuses the countries of seeking regime change. Washington, which at first appeared to back the boycott, has so far been unsuccessful in trying to get the countries to set aside their differences in order to focus on Washington's regional priority -- the fight against Iran. Attempts at mediation have stalled, as highlighted by the recent resignation of U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni -- who quit because of an apparent "lack of will" on behalf of "regional leaders" for regional reconciliation. For Washington, turning the page on the crisis is essential for the successful launch of the Strategic Alliance of the Middle East (MESA), which is a NATO-style security pact that includes Gulf countries as well as Egypt and Jordan. "Today, we ask each of those countries to take the next step and help us solidify MESA," Pompeo said in Cairo.
Smiles with MBS
But the task is not going to be easy. "It is complicated to put together, make no mistake about it, because we're talking about a complex agreement among a number of nations where we're asking for significant commitments from them," Pompeo told reporters in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. "But I believe that there is a path forward where there's a set of common understandings." In Doha, Pompeo is expected to meet with several senior government leaders, including Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. The two are expected to hold a joint press conference on Sunday. Qatar's relationship with Iran is complicated as it shares the world's largest natural gas field with Tehran. Gas has been responsible for transforming Qatar into one of the richest countries in the world, since it first began exporting liquefied natural gas little more than 20 years ago. It has also agreed to increase gas production since the beginning of the crisis. Washington's call for regional unity is clouded by its relations with Saudi Arabia since the murder of Khashoggi in early October. During Pompeo's previous visit to Riyadh at the height of the Khashoggi affair, his broad smiles with the crown prince had outraged some Americans. Trump has said he wants to preserve the alliance with the Saudi kingdom, although the U.S. Senate has clearly blamed Prince Mohammed for the murder. "We will continue to work to ensure that all those responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are accountable," Pompeo said Friday on the U.S. channel Fox News. He reaffirmed that U.S.-Saudi relations remain "incredibly important to Americans."

Netanyahu confirms weekend strike by Israel on Iran target in Syria
AFP, Jerusalem/Sunday, 13 January 2019/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel had at the weekend carried out an air strike on Iranian weapons in Syria, a rare public confirmation of such attacks. “Just in the last 36 hours the air force attacked Iranian warehouses containing Iranian weapons in the Damascus international airport,” Netanyahu said at the start of a cabinet meeting, according to his office. “The accumulation of recent attacks shows that we’re more determined than ever to act against Iran in Syria, just as we promised.”

Netanyahu Says Israeli Strike in Syria Hit Iranian Target
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/19/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel had at the weekend carried out an air strike on Iranian weapons in Syria, a rare public confirmation of such attacks. "Just in the last 36 hours the air force attacked Iranian warehouses containing Iranian weapons in the Damascus international airport," Netanyahu said at the start of a cabinet meeting, according to his office. "The accumulation of recent attacks shows that we're more determined than ever to act against Iran in Syria, just as we promised."

Israel retaliates after rocket fired into Gaza
AFP, Jerusalem/Sunday, 13 January 2019/Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired a rocket at Israel late Saturday, Israel’s army said, prompting retaliatory strikes on the territory’s rulers Hamas as tensions rose after another day of violent border clashes. “Earlier tonight, a rocket was launched from Gaza towards Israeli territory. In response, IDF fighter jets targeted two of Hamas’ underground structures in the Gaza Strip,” Israel Defense Forces tweeted. “We will continue operating to defend Israeli civilians,” it added. Two targets in Gaza City were hit by the Israeli strikes and no one was harmed, security sources in Gaza said. The clashes come a day after a Gaza woman was shot dead by Israeli forces during weekly protests and clashes along the Gaza border. The health ministry named her as Amal al-Taramsi, 43, saying she was the third woman to die in months of clashes that have seen at least 241 Palestinians killed. Another 25 Palestinians were wounded along the Israeli border in Friday’s violence. The Israeli army said that around 13,000 Palestinians had gathered in multiple sites along the border. “The rioters have burned tyres and hurled blocks, explosive devices and grenades towards (Israeli) troops and at the Gaza Strip security fence,” an army statement read. The army also struck two positions belonging to Gaza’s rulers Hamas on Friday, it said. Protests have calmed in recent months amid an informal truce between Israel and Hamas. Under the unwritten agreement, Israel has allowed Qatar to provide money and fuel to Hamas’s government in Gaza in exchange for relative calm. An expected delivery of new funds by Qatar did not arrive this week, sparking speculation Israel was holding it up. On Monday, a rocket fired from Gaza hit Israel, prompting the Jewish state to carry out a series of air strikes against Hamas targets in the Palestinian enclave.

600 people leave in first evacuation from Syria ISIS holdout
AFP, Beirut/Sunday, 13 January 2019/Over 600 people were evacuated Saturday from ISIS’s remaining holdout in eastern Syria, a monitor said, as US-backed fighters prepare for a final assault on the area. “More than 600 people, mainly women and children, were evacuated on 25 buses sent” by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said that several dozen extremist fighters were among those evacuated to areas held by the Kurdish-Arab alliance. The SDF, backed by air strikes from a US-led coalition, in September launched an offensive to oust ISIS from the rump of the once-sprawling “caliphate” it proclaimed in 2014. Abdel Rahman said some 16,000 people, including 760 ISIS fighters, have fled the area since the start of December. But “this is the first time that buses have been provided by the SDF and coalition”, he said, suggesting a potential deal had been struck between the warring sides. The United Nations said Friday that overall some 25,000 people have fled the violence over the last six months as the die-hard extremists have battled to defend their dwindling bastions.
An estimated 2,000 civilians remain trapped in the area around the town of Hajin, the UN said. The US-led coalition on Saturday fired over 20 missiles against extremist positions, the Observatory said. The monitor said some 300 SDF combatants had deployed near the village of Sousa in preparations for a final assault. The fight to eliminate the remaining pockets of ISIS has been shaken by President Donald Trump’s shock December announcement that he is withdrawing US troops from Syria. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday sought to reassure Washington’s Kurdish allies in the fight against ISIS, who fear the departure of American troops would allow Turkey to attack them.

Death toll from Sudan protests rises to 24
AFP, Khartoum/Sunday, 13 January 2019/Anti-government protests that have rocked Sudan since last month have left 24 people dead, an official said on Saturday, without specifying how they died. Demonstrations that erupted in the provinces on December 19 after the government tripled the price of bread have escalated into nationwide anti-government rallies, with protesters calling for President Omar al-Bashir to resign. “The total number of people who have died in incidents from December 19 until now is 24,” Amer Ibrahim, head of a panel set up by the prosecutor’s office to investigate the violence during these rallies told reporters. Authorities had earlier said that 22 people, including two security personnel, had been killed in the unrest. Ibrahim said that two additional protesters who were being treated in hospital in Gadaraf, an impoverished agricultural town, had passed away, taking the overall death toll to 24.
He did give details on the cause of the protesters’ deaths. Rights groups have put the overall death toll much higher, with Human Rights Watch saying that at least 40 people have been killed in clashes during the demonstrations, including children and medical staff. Protesters have staged hundreds of demonstrations so far but riot police and security agents have broken up their rallies with volleys of tear gas. Rights groups and the European Union have said that security forces used “live ammunition” on protesters. The European Union said Friday that the “use of force by security forces against civilians - including the use of live ammunition - has led to further casualties over the last few days”. Sudan’s own human rights body has condemned the killing “by bullets” of protesters, but stopped short of saying who fired the deadly rounds. Bashir has blamed the violence during the protests on “conspirators” without naming them. The protests first erupted in towns and villages before spreading to the capital, with angry crowds calling for an end to Bashir’s three decades in power.

Pentagon Official to Asharq Al-Awsat: US Syria Pullout Will Not Be Arbitrary
Washington – Atef Abullatif/Asharq Al Awsat/January 13/19/Pentagon spokesman Commander Sean Robertson said that the US troop pullout from Syria is not subject to an arbitrary timeline, but depends on operational circumstances on the ground, including Washington’s allies.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the forces were indeed beginning to prepare for the withdrawal. He did not, however, disclose a timeline for it. The US will continue to provide support for the coalition operation in Syria as it pulls out its troops in a coordinated process to ensure the safety of the American forces, he added. The US will continue to work with allies and partners to ensure the defeat of ISIS through preserving military gains and bolstering regional security and stability, Robertson said. The mission has not changed, he remarked, as the joint forces, American troops and regional partners will continue to pursue the last remaining ISIS pockets.Moreover, he stressed that even after US troops leave the region, the US war against ISIS will not end. Washington will continue to strike suspected ISIS locations.US President Donald Trump’s announcement last month that he had decided to withdraw 2,000 US troops stunned allies that have joined Washington in the battle against ISIS in Syria. The US pullout has been clouded by mixed messages from Washington. The US-led coalition battling ISIS added to the confusion on Friday by saying it had started the pullout process, but officials later clarified that only equipment, not troops, were being withdrawn. After media reports suggesting the departure of US forces had begun, the Pentagon later said no troops had yet withdrawn and stressed that the battle against ISIS was continuing as US-backed forces try to capture the group's last remaining pockets of territory in Syria.
"We will confirm that there has been no redeployment of military personnel from Syria to date," said Robertson. US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that equipment was being moved out of Syria, a sign that despite mixed messages from Washington preparations for a withdrawal of troops was proceeding apace, said Reuters. Robertson, in his statement, said the coalition had carried out "logistical measures" to support a withdrawal but did not enter into details.

Iran Summons Poland Envoy over Next Month’s Summit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 January, 2019/Iran summoned on Sunday a senior Polish diplomat in protest against Warsaw and Washington’s plans to host a global Middle East summit, focused specifically on Iran, next month, reported state news agency IRNA. An Iranian foreign ministry official told Poland’s charge d’affaires in Tehran that Iran saw the decision to host the meeting as a “hostile act against Iran”, it added. The statement quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying that if the summit goes ahead, Iran will resort to unspecified "counter-action" toward Poland, without elaborating. “Poland’s charge d’affaires provided explanations about the conference and said it was not anti-Iran,” IRNA said. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday the summit — to be held in Warsaw on February 13-14 — would focus on stability and security in the Middle East, including on the “important element of making sure that Iran is not a destabilizing influence”. On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif criticized Poland for hosting the meeting and wrote on Twitter: “Polish Govt can’t wash the shame: while Iran saved Poles in WWII, it now hosts desperate anti-Iran circus.” Zarif was referring to Iran hosting more that 100,000 Polish refugees during the Second World War. Relations between Tehran and Washington are highly fraught following the decision in May by President Donald Trump to pull the US out of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six major powers and to reimpose sanctions.

Police Obtain New Evidence in Netanyahu Corruption Case
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 January, 2019/Israeli police has received additional information in regards to the corruption probe against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sources close to the investigation said. They revealed that this information increases the likelihood of his conviction in two out of the three corruption cases against him. In Case 4000, reportedly the most serious of the three, Netanyahu is suspected of having advanced regulatory decisions as communications minister and prime minister from 2015 to 2017. This benefited Shaul Elovitch, the controlling shareholder in Bezeq, the country’s largest telecommunications firm, in exchange for positive coverage from Elovitch’s Walla news site. The new information in the case proved that Netanyahu had lied to investigators when he said the Ministry of Communications officials did not oppose merging the Bezeq and Walla firms.
However, several communications ministry officials, including Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, who was the former Minister of Communications, sacked director general of the ministry Avi Berger, and all the ministry's technical officials who testified in the investigation, said they opposed the merger. Sources familiar with the details of the statements confirmed that all the relevant officials in the ministry made similar testimonies, which concludes that they did not ratify the deal without imposing conditions on Bezeq Telecom. Officials said in their testimonies that the change in the ministry's position took place only after Netanyahu appointed a close associate of his, Shalma Felber, as director general of the ministry. They added that Felber received direct instructions from Netanyahu and they had direct and indirect contacts about the merger of the two companies. Case 2000 involves a suspected illicit quid pro quo deal between Netanyahu and Yedioth Ahronoth publisher Arnon Mozes that would have seen the prime minister hobble rival daily Israel Hayom in return for more favorable coverage from Yedioth. In this case, sources revealed that police wanted to arrest Mozes, but Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit opposed the move in order to protect the investigations.

Egypt President Arrives in Jordan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 January, 2019/Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi landed in Jordan on Sunday for talks with King Abdullah II. The monarch welcomed the president upon his arrival at Amman’s Marka military airport. The leaders are set to discuss ways to bolster Egyptian-Jordanian ties, said Egyptian presidential spokesman Bassam Radi on Saturday. They will also address regional affairs, especially the situation in the Palestinian territories, he added.

Egypt, Greece Discuss Boosting Energy Cooperation
Cairo – Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 January, 2019/Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Terens Quick discussed ways to boost relations between the two countries in the coming period, especially in the energy field. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Hafez said Shoukry and Quick discussed Cairo’s chairing of the upcoming 2019 African Union-European Union ministerial meeting scheduled for Brussels on January 21 and 22. According to Hafez, the meeting between Shoukry and Quick also tackled preparations of the third phase of the “Nostos – The Return” program implemented in the framework of the trilateral cooperation among Cyprus, Greece and Egypt on diaspora issues, which will be held in Australia at the end of March. Hafez said Quick was keen to listen to Egypt’s view of the challenges and crises facing the Middle East. For his part, the Greek official underlined the depth of the relations with Egypt, pointing out the need to work jointly to push cooperation between the two countries in various fields. The Nostos initiative comes as a part of the diaspora program signed between Egypt, Cyprus and Greece, which aims to gather Cypriots and Greeks or their descendants in Alexandria for a return trip to the place where they or their ancestors once lived. Signing this program is considered by many to be a historic moment for the three countries, since it was the first time that cooperation on diaspora was achieved and also the first time that the three countries decided on a common strategy and joint actions. In October, the leaders of Egypt, Greece and Cyprus held a summit that stressed the promotion of mutual cooperation between their countries, namely the fields of energy, exploration and transport of natural gas in the Mediterranean.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 13-14/19
Consolidating Pakistan-UAE ties
Sabena Siddiqui/Al Arabiya/January 13/19
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed al Nahyan’s recent visit to Pakistan was the third meeting between the leaders of Pakistan and the UAE in less than three months. Not only that, it was Sheikh Mohammed’s first visit to Pakistan in 12 years. Agreeing to pursue initiatives for a strengthened strategic bilateral relationship, the two leaders would work on a long-term investment framework agreement and further upgrade trade ties. Discussing economic, investment and development possibilities, Prime Minister Imran Khan and the UAE Crown Prince identified new sectors where co-ordination could be intensified. To be exact, $3.2 billion each of oil supplies on credit as well as $3 billion in cash deposits were provided by both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with $1.2 billion trade finance from the International Trade Finance Corporation (IFTC)
This new phase began soon after Prime Minister Imran Khan visited the UAE twice after assuming office. Faced by an economic situation, Pakistan was negotiating an $8 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to overcome the threat of a balance -of -payments crisis at home. Trying to break the harsh impact of any stringent conditions that may be laid out by the IMF, the idea was to reduce the amount of the bailout by requesting friendly countries for help.
Investing in Pakistan
In response to the request, Abu Dhabi had deposited $3 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan to boost the depleting foreign exchange reserves last month in December 2018. After this recent visit, the UAE has also offered $3.2 billion of oil supplies on deferred payment along with the previous cash deposits. Identical in amount, terms and conditions to the economic package provided to Pakistan by Saudi Arabia, both the countries have helped avert a financial emergency.
To be exact, $3.2 billion each of oil supplies on credit as well as $3 billion in cash deposits were provided by both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with $1.2 billion trade finance from the International Trade Finance Corporation (IFTC). Thus, the total financing support from both countries and the IFTC comes to around $ 13.9 to 14 billion. Consequently, Pakistan can save nearly $7.9 billion that it would have spent on importing oil, as apparently the annual import bill runs to around $12 to 13 billion and this accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total figure. Investing in Gwadar port, Abu Dhabi plans an oil refinery set up by PARCO at Khalifa Point valued at $5 to 6 billion while Saudi Arabia is also investing in the Gwadar Oil City project. Additionally, investing in logistics, ports, oil and gas as well as construction sectors, the UAE will be having a multi-dimensional presence in Pakistan. Working together in Gwadar along with other economic and business interests, these developments potentially stabilize the region and make foreign investments even more sustainable. Where trade is concerned, these developments would enable Pakistan’s Gwadar to be a bridge between Central Asia and China and the Middle East, onwards to Africa.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan have also been engaged in furthering the Afghan peace process and negotiations between the Afghan govt, U.S. representative Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban representatives were arranged only recently in Abu Dhabi. Geopolitically, these countries appear to share a complete identification of views on matters of global interests in the years ahead.

Investing in AI will determine future world superpowers
Shehab Al-Makahleh/Al Arabiya/January 13/19
The world is witnessing a "cold technological war" between major powers that want to control the globe "digitally". International powers are trying to use their Artificial Intelligence (AI) capability to profit and accumulate wealth at the expense of other countries in economic, military and information fields. They are benefitting from the Fifth Generation Technology (G5) which is the source of strength for countries that look forward to ruling the world as this new field is the next axis of competition between international forces.
The volume of international investments in artificial intelligence varies from one country to another. The volume of international investments in AI has increased by about 60 percent since 2010. Global AI investments are estimated to contribute $ 15.7 trillion by 2030, and reach $89.9 billion by 2025. Many countries around the world are confident that artificial intelligence technologies will be the main driver of economic growth over the next few years and that countries will not be able to attract quality investments if they do not create a favorable infrastructure for this hi-tech field.
The coming era is not the epoch of powerful armies but rather, the eon of advanced technologies and smart applications that serve civilian and military objectives since future wars will not be fought by humans, but rather, by AI applications.
Cold War indicators
AI can transform the productivity and potentials of the world’s GDP based on strategic investment in different types of artificial intelligence technology. This can be conducive to improve labor productivity as AI technologies help perform tasks and duties better. Research reveals that up to 46 percent of total economic gains will come from product improvements and stimulating consumer demand through AI by 2030 as artificial intelligence will lead to greater product diversity, with increased customization, allure and affordability over time.
China will top the list as the most to benefit from artificial intelligence as this will add 27 percent to its GDP by 2030, while North America will be second with 15 percent. The volume of AI businesses at the global level is estimated at 20 world economies by the end of 2018. This ratio will increase GDP by 14 percent in 2030. Hypothetically, AI might broaden gaps between countries, buttressing the current digital gulf. Countries might require diverse strategies as AI implementation rates differ.
Developed nations, who are spearheading the adoption of AI, could upturn their lead over developing states by capturing an extra 25 percent in net economic gains. On the other hand, developing nations might only acquire less than five percent. As many developed nations are gearing towards higher productivity growth ratios to GDP, the developing states have to live up to the challenges and adopt the new technological means to not only develop their industries, but also their GDPs by replicating others’ experiences in advanced countries.
The developing countries can win over the developed nations, which have a severe issue with an aging population. More than 70 percent of the population of the developing nations are young generations whose age is less than 33 years old. This can be a very positive leverage to fill the gap between the developed and developing countries in terms of AI adoption. The major users of AI applications are the moguls of the internet industry such as Google, Baidu (which is a Chinese technology company), Yandex (a Russia technology network company), and others. They have invested more than $39 billion on technology in 2018. Other sectors such as energy, financial services including banking and stock markets, automotive firms, media, transport and logistics entities come next in AI investment. In 2018, developed nations invested more than $10 billion in machine learning, which is part of AI.
Features of the new Cold War
The United States and China are currently the two main research and development powers for AI. Recently, the United States has focused on the establishment of one of the largest academic forces in AI, which is a largely private sector dominated by military or intelligence agencies, such as the IARPA (Advanced Intelligence Research Projects) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The evidence is not far from Trump’s claims that, since he came to power, he has expressed his intention to develop AI to improve the economy, but also use it for national security purposes.
China has chosen to maintain a strong public investment, estimated at about $7 billion a year in AI projects as part of an ambitious national plan of action to create a $150 billion industry by 2030.
Israel has the third-largest market share of AI applications in the world with direct investments estimated at $1 billion in 2017, a year in which seven Israeli-owned companies were listed among the world’s most advanced AI companies. The relationship exists traditionally between the Israeli army and the country’s technological industries as well as the academic structure.
Japan’s budget for AI was estimated at $1 billion in 2018. Canada has embarked on a public and private sector financing route to promote and set up entrepreneurship opportunities in the area of AI, and to develop training, qualifications and research under the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance.
Russia has allocated a budget of $15 billion for AI research in order to develop its civil and military sectors. The European Union will be responsible for the development of AI based on a project entitled ‘Horizon 2020.’ French President Emmanuel Macron also announced an investment of $2billion euros by 2020 in the field of AI. In April of 2018, German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed Germany’s intention to enter the arena of AI by setting up a framework for foreign investment funds led by Amazon. The UK allotted $200 million to support AI projects. Spain is one of the countries that has developed a strategy and budget, and has been working since 2017 on drafting a white paper on AI. If the developing nations are not ready for the upcoming challenges of technology, they will be lagging behind in their economies and will be following the advanced communities for decades to come. The coming era is not the epoch of powerful armies but rather, the eon of advanced technologies and smart applications that serve civilian and military objectives since future wars will not be fought by humans, but rather, by AI applications.

Economists Get Serious About the Harm From Monopolies
Noah Smith/Bloomberg View/Bloomberg View/January 13/19
The big story at the annual American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta earlier this month was about the economics profession dealing with its gender problem. But after that, the second-most-interesting debate in economics right now is over antitrust and monopoly power.
Two things have pushed the antitrust issue to the fore — economists have started to cite excessive market power as a drag on growth and wages, while energized activists are rising up to challenge lax regulation that allowed a wave of mergers in the past few decades.
Along with rising awareness of the market power problem, there’s a growing realization that the traditional approach to antitrust won’t be enough to correct things. Not only do regulators fail to consider many of the broad implications when deciding which mergers to allow, but the government lacks tools for dealing with monopoly power after companies become large and dominant. One of the most interesting papers presented in Atlanta was by the University of Pennsylvania’s Ioana Marinescu, an economist who has done a lot of recent research on market concentration and market power. Writing with law professor Herbert Hovenkamp on the effect of mergers on labor markets, the authors proposed a new approach to antitrust. Whereas defenders of the traditional approach focus on consumer welfare as the benchmark of market power, Marinescu and Hovenkamp recommend that courts and regulators also consider the degree to which mergers give companies more power to suppress wages.
But Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Nancy Rose gave a presentation emphasizing the difficulty of using merger enforcement to counter market power. It’s true, Rose noted, that antitrust enforcement has eased in recent decades, and that it could be tightened up. But formidable institutional barriers will limit the effectiveness or the policy even under the best of circumstances. To stop companies from merging, regulators have to take them to court, and plead their case to judges whose understanding of the economics involved is hazy at best.
There are other limitations of merger enforcement beyond the ones mentioned by Rose. Often, mergers end up raising prices, in spite of corporate promises not to. But because the Federal Trade Commission doesn’t conduct a systematic review of mergers after the fact, this generally goes unnoticed and unpunished.
Furthermore, it’s not even clear how companies should be split up if a merger does reduce competition. The famous cases of antitrust action breaking up big companies often involved division along geographical lines. When AT&T was forced to relinquish control of local telephone services in 1982, those services simply became regional companies that retained their local market share. When Standard Oil was broken up in 1911, the resulting companies were divided along regional lines — many of them eventually spread out and began to compete with each other, but at least for a while the breakup probably didn’t do much to diversify the local markets for workers and for gasoline. For workers as well as consumers, it’s often local concentration that matters rather than nationwide concentration.
It would be great if big companies could simply be divided into the competing rivals that existed before a merger took place. But once two competitors join, they tend to merge their sales departments, their engineering departments, their management structure and almost every other facet of their business. Antitrust regulators can’t easily order the merged company to split itself back into its constituent parts, because those parts no longer really exist.
Thus antitrust, although a valuable weapon in the nation’s struggle to counteract corporations’ monopoly power, can’t be the only arrow in the quiver. Complementary approaches are needed in the form of institutions that push back against the power of the big companies.
Two such approaches are unions and minimum-wage laws. Unions, by organizing workers into a single bargaining unit, effectively create monopoly power in labor markets to counteract the concentrated power of employers. A similar policy is co-determination, in which the government mandates that workers be given board seats in their companies. Minimum wages directly counteract the tendency of powerful employers to set wages inefficiently low — which is why modest minimum wages can even raise employment levels in some cases.

Brexiters Know a Bad Trade When They See One
Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg View/January 13/19
Capturing the mood of the public better than pollsters or politicians can win you big money. Prominent Brexit supporter Crispin Odey proved it when he correctly wagered that the UK would vote to leave the European Union.
It matters that the hedge fund manager now says he’s betting that the pound will rebound on the basis that Brexit won’t actually happen after all. It suggests that even Brexiters know a bad trade when they see one.
The trade hinges on events in Britain’s fractious Parliament, which is next week set to vote on Theresa May’s deal to leave the EU. The prime minister has argued that her agreement is the only way the UK can leave without the chaos a “no-deal” Brexit would entail. Businesses and foreign leaders have lined up to support May’s take-it-or-leave-it strategy. What’s good for her deal was therefore good for the pound, the thinking went.
Yet Odey and fellow Brexit supporter Peter Hargreaves are reading the parliamentary runes differently. In an interview with Reuters, Odey said that he has turned bullish on sterling. He reckons it could rise to $1.32 or $1.35, from about $1.28 today, because he thinks Brexit will be scrapped entirely. Hargreaves agreed, telling Reuters he was “totally in despair.” Their view of the chaos isn’t “deal or no deal” — it’s “Brexit or Remain.” And remain has the better chance of winning out.
They have a point. The pillars of support for a no-deal Brexit are falling away. Conservative lawmakers and cabinet members are increasingly turning against leaving the EU without a safety net. Public opinion has also become more hesitant about making the economic trade-off between leaving the single market and halting the EU’s freedom of movement.
A defeat for May’s deal might open the way to more benign, pound-friendly, alternatives. Some of these, like a “Norway-plus” deal, might bind the UK closer to the EU than May would like.
Hargreaves predicts that a delaying of the official Brexit deadline will be followed by a second referendum won by Remain. That is, perhaps, an over-confident prediction. Opinion polls pointed to a remain victory before the 2016 vote.
But currency traders clearly believe the risk-reward calculus has changed. Now, the more trouble May’s deal looks to be in, the greater the chances of reversing the economic damage, and so the pound finds more support. Witness how a report in the Evening Standard suggesting cabinet ministers might delay Brexit boosted sterling on Friday.
Some of Brexit’s most prominent backers are clearly waking up to the idea that the contrarian, profitable bet of 2019 is the opposite of what it was in 2016. You don’t have to believe that Brexit will be scrapped entirely to bet on a rising pound — but it certainly helps.

Lessons We Seem Unwilling to Learn
Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/January 13/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13530/lessons-unwilling-to-learn
The question to ask is why are there so many people in the Muslim community who would object to such an exhibition and why these extremists have so much sway (as opposed to merely being an embittered fringe) that they can actually get their way. If a church in Britain put on an exhibition about the Holocaust, it would not be forced to cancel it under pressure from any Holocaust-denying Anglicans.
So what is it about the fragility, and vulnerability of the Muslim community to the dictates of extremists that we can learn from an episode such as this one?
Quite a lot, I would suggest. Which is one of the reasons why there has been so little focus. Because what can be learned from such events are lessons that, as a society, we still seem distinctly unwilling to learn.
On New Year's Eve in Manchester, England, a 25-year-old man began stabbing people at random on a platform at the city's Victoria Station, while reportedly shouting ISIS slogans. Pictured: Victoria Station in Manchester. (Image source: Mike Peel/Wikimedia Commons)
An enormous amount about the hopes and expectations of a society can be learned from the news that people want to report and the stories its readers apparently want to hear. An equally large amount -- perhaps even more -- can be learned from the stories they would most likely rather not hear and the facts they would probably prefer not to know about.
The former situation can be seen after any Islamist terrorist attack in the West, when people are immediately given 'good news stories' either to dampen any rage they might be feeling or distract from any difficult questions they might be asking. On New Year's Eve in Manchester, England, for instance, a 25-year-old man began stabbing people at random on a platform at the city's Victoria Metrolink station. It appears that the venue was chosen because it is near the Manchester Arena, where Salman Abedi murdered 22 people in a suicide-bombing at a pop concert in May 2017.
Before a nearby police officer and his colleagues could stop him, the New Year's Eve attacker left a couple in their 50s seriously injured in what was described as a 'frenzied' attack. He has subsequently been detained under the Mental Health Act. What seemed clear from the outset, however, was that the attack was in some way Islamist, specifically ISIS-inspired. The man was reportedly shouting ISIS slogans during the attack; and footage of him after he was detained by police show him shouting 'Allahu Akbar' ['Allah is the greatest'].
Lest it be forgotten, it was three years ago, after a terror simulation in the city (in order to prepare emergency services for what turned out to be an imminent scenario) that the heads of the Greater Manchester police evidently felt impelled publicly to apologise for an actor in that 'rehearsal' shouting 'Allahu Akbar'. Muslim groups and others argued then that having such a scenario was 'Islamophobic'.
In any event, in the aftermath of the New Year's Eve attack, there were prime examples of searches for 'good news stories'. These swiftly landed on a woman in a headscarf who was among the passersby to assist the couple who had just been attacked. 'The angel of Manchester' some papers said. Across social media various campaigners insisted that this kindness -- rather than the attacker -- was 'the true face of Islam'. Like anyone else who stops to help strangers, the woman obviously deserves considerable praise. There is, though -- in this search for the good story among the bad -- something desperate and self-deluding.
By contrast, consider the stories that are not popular to report and events on which most of the media would seemingly rather not focus. Earlier this month, just such a story emerged from Golders Green. For decades, this area of London has been associated with Britain's Jewish population. Because of their high number in the area, there was some concern in 2017 when a Shia Muslim group bought the huge Golders Green Hippodrome for £5.25 million to establish a large mosque. The possible significance of this purchase was dampened down by Jewish community leaders, who criticised those concerned about the mosque's arrival.
To their credit, the leadership of the mosque, since it opened, have been making efforts to reach out to, and reassure, the local Jewish population. Inevitably, there has been much talk of inter-faith initiatives and inter-faith dialogue. Events at the start of this month, however, point to one of the present futilities around these means of communal reassurance.
As part of their efforts to reassure local Jews of their good nature, the Golders Green mosque had planned to show an exhibition which would highlight the role that some Muslim Albanians played in helping to protect some of their Jewish neighbours during the Holocaust. Britain and Albania are, of course, are a continent apart. It is also probably safe to say that Albanian affairs, even extremely recent ones, are rarely a priority for residents of the UK. Obviously, the twin purpose of such an exhibition would simply be to show Muslims that there were heroic Muslims in the past -- as today -- who are willing to make a stand against the worst inhumanity, and also to remind Jews that, as well as there being people from the Muslim community who have always had a deadly intent towards their people, there have also been others who have been allies and friends. It is hard to see who could object to such a message.
Except, of course, that there are. Among the Islamist-oriented groups in Britain is one revolving around a website called '5 Pillars'. Its editor, Roshan Salih, also works for the Iranian state broadcaster Press TV, which had its broadcasting license in the UK removed after it showed forced confessions of prisoners inside Iranian jails in the wake of the uprising crushed by the Iranian government in 2009. Since news of the exhibition emerged, Salih has led a campaign to boycott it. The reason he and '5 Pillars' claim as their excuse is that the Holocaust exhibit is coming from Yad Vashem, and Yad Vashem is Israeli. Those -- including Muslims -- who have criticised the exhibition's critics have been dismissed by Salih as simply 'Zionists'.
Now the exhibition has been scrapped.
There are the usual saving-something-from-the-rubble noises from communal leaders about the need to 'continue working together'. But little will actually be learned. For the same reason that there has been little focus -- outside of the Jewish community press in Britain -- on this whole story. The reason is obvious.
Perhaps the mosque leadership in Golders Green are good. Perhaps they were motivated by more than short-term fence-building in deciding to hold an exhibition about the Holocaust. The question to ask is why are there so many people in the Muslim community who would object to such an exhibition and why these extremists have so much sway (as opposed to merely being an embittered fringe) that they can actually get their way. If a church in Britain put on an exhibition about the Holocaust, it would not be forced to cancel it under pressure from any Holocaust-denying Anglicans. Far from it. If such an unlikely event were to occur, the entire direction of the ire would be towards anyone trying to stop such an event. The exhibition would go ahead without anyone flinching. So what is it about the fragility, and vulnerability of the Muslim community to the dictates of extremists that we can learn from an episode such as this one?
Quite a lot, I would suggest. Which is one of the reasons why there has been so little focus. Because what can be learned from such events are lessons that, as a society, we still seem distinctly unwilling to learn.
*Douglas Murray, British author, commentator and public affairs analyst, is based in London, England. His latest book, an international best-seller, is "The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam."
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Iran’s proposed budget betrays economic crisis
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 13/19
At the end of each year, the Iranian government proposes a budget bill in the country’s parliament (Majlis). After the bill is passed there, a clerical body also has to approve the legislation. Consequently, Iran’s Central Bank will present monetary and credit policies that correspond with the budget.
Carefully examining Iran’s budget is critical because the nuances of the budget bill can inform policy analysts, scholars and politicians not only about the Islamic Republic’s current financial and economic status, but also its prospective missions and specific objectives.
Iran’s proposed budget for this year is intriguing for several reasons, and is distinct from those of prior years.
To begin with, the Iranian authorities have emphasized that the current bill is designed to significantly assist the ordinary people by increasing the minimum wage, creating jobs, raising the employment rate, and resolving people’s economic problems. According to Iran’s official broadcaster, which presented the regime’s budget for March 2019 to March 2020: “The government intends to increase the wages of employees in tandem with increasing the employment rate for the youth, all the while keeping the prices for gas at the 10,000-rial (10 cents) level and making sure that supervision is made in a way that goods reach people with cheap prices.”
But, from a realistic point of view, the Iranian leaders’ promises are impossible to fulfill.
The proposed budget for 2019 is just 45 percent of the country’s budget for the previous year. This is unprecedented in the history of the Islamic Republic. The budget bill that was proposed by President Hassan Rouhani and passed in 2018 was approximately $104 billion. The current budget bill is roughly $47.5 billion.
Iran’s increase in IRGC funding, while many other sectors have witnessed drastic cuts, points to the regime’s determination to prioritize its revolutionary principles over its citizens’ needs.
The main reason for such a decline is the decision of US President Donald Trump to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and to renew the primary and secondary sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Although the Iranian leaders dismiss the move as not impacting the nation, the sanctions have put significant pressure on Iran’s economy, specifically its energy and banking sectors. Iran’s revenues have already started sinking, and will likely continue to fall. Since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal, Iran’s oil revenues and exports have fallen approximately 50 percent.
More importantly, Iran’s national currency, the rial, has dropped to historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled approximately 35,000 rials in early 2018, is now worth nearly 110,000 rials. According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s economy is officially in recession.
In addition, a significant portion of Iran’s budget relies on the export of oil. According to the budget bill, the regime is estimating it will export nearly 1.5 million barrels per day at $54 per barrel. This presents two important problems. First, the Islamic Republic is less likely to gain this revenue because Tehran’s oil export market is declining and the regime is incapable of trading with US dollar. This will lead to a significant budget deficit. Secondly, while the Iranian leaders, particularly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, repeatedly emphasize that the nation has a resilient economy independent of oil sales, the current budget bill shows that the government has not made any tangible advances in fulfilling such promises.
Iran’s budget bills are normally incorporated in the country’s five-year development plan. The regime previously indicated that Iran’s sixth five-year development plan (for 2016 to 2021) would prioritize education, health and technology. But the current budget bill shows cuts for these sectors. In fact, in a surprising move, Health Minister Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi has resigned over the proposed budget and the cuts that it entails. Expressing his frustration with the government’s budget cuts in the health sector, he stated in a video published on Khabar One news: “I am not an impatient person, but enough is enough.” Rouhani accepted his resignation without offering any explanation for the budget cuts.
It appears the only institution that has seen a noticeable increase in its budget is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Increasing the IRGC’s budget while cutting other crucial programs will not resolve the people’s economic difficulties. Although Iran has an educated youth population, almost 30 percent of them cannot find jobs. In some provinces, the unemployment rate is over 60 percent. According to an official representative of the regime’s Planning and Management Organization, “42 percent of unemployed people in Iran have a university degree, and huge sums of money have been spent on their education.”
In a nutshell, Iran’s proposed budget reveals the economic crisis that Tehran is facing. The increase in the IRGC’s funding, while many other sectors have witnessed cuts, points to the regime’s determination to prioritize its revolutionary principles over its citizens’ needs.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh