LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 11.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I do not call you servants any longer, because the servant does not know what the master is doing; but I have called you friends because I have made known to you everything that I have heard from my Father
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 15/15-21/:”I do not call you servants any longer, because the servant does not know what the master is doing; but I have called you friends, because I have made known to you everything that I have heard from my Father. You did not choose me but I chose you. And I appointed you to go and bear fruit, fruit that will last, so that the Father will give you whatever you ask him in my name. I am giving you these commands so that you may love one another. ‘If the world hates you, be aware that it hated me before it hated you. If you belonged to the world, the world would love you as its own. Because you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world therefore the world hates you. Remember the word that I said to you, “Servants are not greater than their master.” If they persecuted me, they will persecute you; if they kept my word, they will keep yours also. But they will do all these things to you on account of my name, because they do not know him who sent me.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 10-11/2020
The Presence Of Iran & It Proxies In The Region Will End Very/SoonElias Bejjani/January 10/2020
The End Of Iran's Regional Terrorist Role Is Inevitable/Elias Bejjani/January 09/2020
Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One/Elias Bejjani/January 08/2020
Lebanese protesters close road; scuffles injure 14 soldiers
Aoun, Salameh Tackle Financial Situation
Salameh Rules Out 'Collapse', Says No Bank Will Go Bankrupt
Berri Denies Seeking Political Govt., Confirms Support for Diab
Scuffles Erupt Near Beirut Municipality
Report: Diab Insists He Completes His Mission
Protesters Block Beddawi Highway after Tense Night
Ghosn Escape Proves Fresh Headache for Ailing Nissan
Ghosn Laments Brazil's Failure to 'Pressure' Japan
Bank Audi condemns Jal El Dib Branch incident
Rahi, Salameh tackle financial, economic situation
Othman meets Italian Embassy's Military Attaché
Serhan: We are keen on friendly relations with Japan
Captagon smuggling to Britain foiled, smuggler arrested
Roukoz: Cabinet is absent, Central Bank Governor polishing his own image
UNICEF calls on all stakeholders to put children first and ensure their safeguarding in these times of crisis in Lebanon
AUB Professor Saouma Boujaoude awarded top honor for distinguished contributions to science education
'Time and its Unknown Dimensions' as viewed by the Esoteric Science by Dr. Joseph B. Majdalani (JBM)

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 10-11/2020
Iran Civil Aviation Boss 'Certain' Ukraine Plane Not Hit by Missile
US Sec Pompeo says it is ‘likely’ Ukrainian plane shot down by Iranian missile
EU ministers to focus on bringing Iran back into nuclear deal: Slovakia
Pompeo: US stands with Ukraine, ready to support investigation
US announces new sanctions on Iran after missile strikes on bases in Iraq
Dutch minister says Iran likely shot down Ukraine airliner
Iran's envoy to UK denies any clearing of plane crash site: Report
We will not discuss withdrawal of US troops from Iraq: US State Department
NATO chief backs assessment Iran missile downed plane
Iran confirms safety of its airspace after international airlines suspend flights
Iran to announce reason behind Ukraine airliner crash on Saturday: Fars
Iraq files complaint on Iran at the UN Security Council: Document
Iran will be further mistrusted if it does not investigate crash properly: German FM
Albanian PM denounces Iran’s ‘malicious activities’ after Khamenei threats
Russia says no grounds to blame Iran for Ukrainian plane crash: TASS
EU demands ‘independent, credible’ probe into Iran crash
Pakistan mosque blast kills senior police officer, 8 others
US, Canadian, French representatives to attend Iran plane crash investigation meetings
Germany rejects Trump call to ditch Iran nuclear pact
Air Strike Kills 8 Iraq Paramilitaries in East Syria
Iran’s attack on US airbase in Iraq finds Israel vulnerable to same kind of ballistic missile strike/DEBKAfile/January 10/2020

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 10-11/2020
Analysis/Iran Retaliated. Now May Come the Covert Proxy Revenge/Amos Harel/Haaretz/January 10/2020
France, The "Budding Islamic Republic"/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/January 10/2020
New Khamenei Speech Underlines the Importance of Popular Support for the Regime/Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/January 10/2020
Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other/David Pollock/The Washington Institute/January 10/2020
Catherine W Jude/Amazing post just to add my thoughts to it/Face Book/January 10/2020
La métonymie d’un crash/Charles Elias Chartouni/January 10/2020
Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 10/2020
Is this the end of US passivity in the face of Iranian terrorism/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Al Arabiya/January 10/2020
Who is more powerful? Iran learns the hard way/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/January 10/2020
Dumbest man in Iran’: Thomas Friedman mocks Qassem Soleimani/Caitlin Yilek/The Washington Examinar/January 10/2020
Wisdom required if US is to avoid conflict with Iran/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/January 10/2020
Putin deserves ‘Great Power Strategist of the Year’ accolade/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/January 10/2020
Turkey treads a fine line amid US-Iran tensions/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/January 10/2020

Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 10-11/2020
The Presence Of Iran & It Proxies In The Region Will End Very Soon
Elias Bejjani/January 10/2020
Could the So Falsely Called "Resistance and Liberation Axis" Leadership Explain how they are going to force the American's military out of the region while, their topnotch figure Sayed Nasrallah is still living underground since 14 years because of his fear from them?. In Conclusion no one can offer what he does not own.

The End Of Iran's Regional Terrorist Role Is Inevitable
Elias Bejjani/January 09/2020
دور ملالي إيران الإقليمي إلى نهاية حتمية
History repeats itself despite all odds and delusions of rogue countries. In this context, as the Saudi-Syrian marriage was ended when Rafic Hariri was assassinated by Hezbollah-Al Assad regime assassinates, at the present time, the long term eviler American-Iranian marriage is over after the killing of qassim Soliemani. Iran's regional role is going to end soon.. as well as the role of all its terrorist militia proxies including that of Hezbollah in Lebanon

Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One
Elias Bejjani/January 08/2020
Definitely, Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One.. In Lebanon and before dismantling Hezbollah, the Iranian armed proxy, and putting an end to its military and occupational role there will be no freedom, independence, sovereignty or any effective solution for any of Lebanon's many hardships on all levels and in all domains.

Lebanese protesters close road; scuffles injure 14 soldiers
Associated Press/January 10/2020
Police deployed to separate the two sides, after which the protesters left the area outside the municipality building in central Beirut.
BEIRUT: Protesters closed a major road in northern Lebanon, triggering scuffles with Lebanese troops that left more than a dozen soldiers injured, the Lebanese army said Friday. The incident occurred late Thursday night when protesters closed the Biddawi road near the northern city of Tripoli. They were protesting electricity cuts that can last for hours each day. Lebanese troops detained some of the protesters who had blocked the road. Later in the evening, more demonstrators came to the protest site to demand the detainees’ release. They then attacked troops with Molotov cocktails and hurled stones, injuring 14 soldiers, the army said, adding eight protesters were detained in those clashes. Lebanon has seen increased electricity cuts as the country grapples with its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. Protesters took to the streets in October over proposed new taxes. But the nationwide demonstrations quickly grew into calls for an end to the rule of the political elite that has run the country since the 1975-90 civil war ended. The protesters blame the politicians for widespread corruption and mismanagement, which they say are the main reasons for the country’s financial crisis.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in late October, meeting a key demand of the protesters. However, that’s left the country without a government ever since, as politicians bicker over the shape of the new Cabinet. Local banks have imposed unprecedented capital controls, putting limits on withdrawals and preventing transfers outside the country. In Beirut, at least one person was injured Friday during protests calling for the resignation of Beirut’s mayor and governor over alleged corruption within the municipality. The protesters were attacked by men who support the two local officials.
Police deployed to separate the two sides, after which the protesters left the area outside the municipality building in central Beirut.

Aoun, Salameh Tackle Financial Situation
Naharnet/January 10/2020
President Michel Aoun discussed the financial situation with Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh amid unprecedented capital controls and a tightening economic and political crisis gripping the country since October. The National News Agency said the two men tackled the “financial and monetary status and the measures taken by the bank in that regard.”The meeting was held in the presence of Caretaker Minister of State for Presidency Affairs Salim Jreissati. Since September banks have arbitrarily capped the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn or transferred abroad, sparking fury among customers who accuse lenders of holding their money hostage. There is also a limit on Lebanese pound withdrawals. Unprecedented anti-government protests have gripped Lebanon since October 17, in part to decry a lack of action over the deepening economic crisis. The Lebanese pound has been pegged to the dollar for more than two decades at 1,507 to the greenback, and both currencies are used in everyday interactions. But with banks limiting dollar withdrawals, the rate on the unofficial market has topped 2,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar and the cost of living has increased.
On Thursday, Salameh ruled out an imminent financial collapse in the country as he reassured that no bank will go bankrupt.

Salameh Rules Out 'Collapse', Says No Bank Will Go Bankrupt
Naharnet/January 10/2020
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Thursday ruled out an imminent financial collapse in the country as he reassured that no bank will go bankrupt. “There is a crisis and difficulties, but not a collapse,” Salameh said in an interview with Lebanon’s MTV. “Not a single bank will go bankrupt and banks facing difficulties will be merged,” he added. Noting that liquidity in the country has declined due to “the pressure created by depositors,” Salameh reassured that Lebanese banks enjoy solvency. “There won't be a haircut,” the Governor answered in response to a question. “The central bank does not have the jurisdiction to carry out a haircut; this needs a law,” he reminded. He added: “Banks must be allowed to ‘breathe’ and we have devised a plan under which depositors' money will be preserved.”“I want to fix things and reassure the Lebanese about their monetary situation,” Salameh went on to say. Pointing out that it is his responsibility to “preserve the current structure” and the “continuity of the Lebanese state,” Salameh noted that the central bank had financed the state “on the hope that there would be reforms.” He also blamed the financial and economic woes on the country’s presidential vacuums, the delay in the formation of its governments and the failure to reform its electricity sector. Asked about the latest reports about the alleged transfer abroad of huge sums of money by a number of politicians, Salameh said: "We'll send teams from the central bank's Special Investigations Commission to the banks to explore the outcome of investigations into the transfers and we will then send the result to the state prosecutor so that he takes the necessary measures."Salameh also ruled out a "revolution of the hungry," but noted that poverty is expected to increase, urging measures.

Berri Denies Seeking Political Govt., Confirms Support for Diab
Naharnet/January 10/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday denied media reports claiming that he has called for the formation of a “political government” as well as suggestions that he does not want Hassan Diab to lead the new government. “The situation in the region is very bad and the situation in Lebanon is unfortunately changing from bad to worse,” Berri said in a chat with reporters in Ain el-Tineh. “The solution at the Lebanese level requires the presence of a government, which should have been formed within 15 days had we benefited from the previous experiences,” Berri lamented. He asked: “Why the delay and why are there new rules that violate formation norms?”“Let it be known that all governments in the world are mirrors of parliaments. They have proposed a government of independents, but does independence stand for the absence of belonging? Why are they depicting parties and party members in a scary fashion? This is strange, seeing as parties have competent and capable figures,” the Speaker added. Commenting on recent reports he said: “What I have suggested is a techno-political government and I reject a purely political government. Isn’t the current government a techno-political government?”“The new government should comprise representatives of the protest movement,” Berri added, denying that he is “unenthusiastic for a government led by Hassan Diab.”“All these rumors are baseless. I have offered him all support and assistance,” Berri stressed. Asked about the possibility that caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri might not agree with him that the caretaker cabinet should be activated, Berri said: “It is not up to him. Acting in a caretaker capacity is a constitutional duty that must be performed.”

Scuffles Erupt Near Beirut Municipality
Naharnet/January 10/2020
Scuffles erupted in downtown Beirut on Friday between protesters demanding the resignation of Beirut governor and mayor, and another group defending them amid heavy security deployment of anti-riot police. Activists staged a sit-in near the municipality building shouting “Thieves, Thieves” accusing Beirut governor Ziad Shebib and Beirut mayor Jamal Itani of corruption and mismanagement. Security forces formed a human barrier between the two groups as protesters hurled empty bottles at each other and some hurled stones reportedly injuring a woman. “Beirut is the capital, we pay taxes but see no improvement. They robbed the funds. They are corrupt,” one protester said. One Beirut protester pointed at the other group saying “they are not even from Beirut,” he alleged. “We are here to protest their corruption, the wasted public funds and shady deal,” Rana Shmaitely said, “they should be ashamed.”The three-month ongoing protests against the ruling class gained momentum Friday with protesters blocking several roads across Lebanon. Protesters in the northern city of Tripoli blocked al-Beddawi highway on Friday protesting the detention of a group of activists the night before. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, while protests against corruption and mismanagement have gripped the country since October 17.

Report: Diab Insists He Completes His Mission
Naharnet/January 10/2020
PM-designate Hassan Diab “insists” on completing his mission and considers the latest developments in the region all the more call for forming a government of non-partisan experts, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Sources close to Diab told the daily that he “still adheres to form a small government of specialized ministers, who are not partisans, and who have not participated in previous governments.”They said the latest regional tension calls all the more for insisting on these standards because the new government must be “fortified internally and externally.”“The three-month protest movement and the international community are looking for a government that inspires confidence through a cabinet of specialists able to face the financial economic crisis and its effects,” said the sources. Diab carried a list of names to Aoun during a “positive” meeting earlier this week and reports said the obstacles related to some portfolios have been resolved. “Diab has no plans to draw back. Everyone must cooperate in order to help this government see the light to stop the economic collapse,” they concluded.

Protesters Block Beddawi Highway after Tense Night
Naharnet/January 10/2020
Protesters in the northern city of Tripoli blocked al-Beddawi highway to protest the detention of a group of activists arrested by the Lebanese army overnight, the National News Agency reported on Friday. Blocking the highway with burning tyres and cement blocks, the protesters vowed to keep the blockades until the detainees are freed.Scuffles erupted between army troops and activists blocking the road overnight protesting worsening power outages. 53 people, including 23 soldiers, were wounded and bruised, the emergency team in the Islamic Medical Association said. The army arrested several after failed attempts to make them remove the blockades and open the road for traffic. Lebanon, already plagued with severe power rationing, is grappling with a close to three-month-old protest movement demanding the removal of political leaders deemed incompetent and corrupt.

Ghosn Escape Proves Fresh Headache for Ailing Nissan

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 10/2020
Out of Japan and free to speak to the media, a fugitive Carlos Ghosn is proving a fresh headache for his old firm Nissan as it struggles to rebuild its reputation. The tycoon who once headed the automaker jumped bail and fled Japan last month while awaiting trial on financial misconduct charges. And he has not pulled any punches when it comes to the firm he helped turn around. He accuses executives there of effectively setting him up, in a bid to block his plans for further integration with Nissan's French partner Renault. And in a press conference on Wednesday in Lebanon, where he emerged after his audacious escape, he slammed the firm's executives, accusing them of losing shareholder value and pursuing a vendetta. Nissan has remained largely silent, waiting until January 7 to release a statement calling his decision to flee "extremely regrettable" and insisting it had uncovered "numerous acts of misconduct" by the tycoon.
The firm faces its own legal proceedings linked to the case, which limits what it can say, a source close to Nissan told AFP. "We have responsibilities, we must respect the law, we have obligations. It will be painful, but we have to do it."
Ghosn meanwhile, in Lebanon and apparently beyond the reach of Japanese prosecutors, "can say what he wants, he has no more constraints," the source said.
Morale hit
In a lengthy and at times combative press conference on Wednesday, the former auto magnate once again accused Nissan executives of plotting his downfall and sought to rebut the charges against him. "For the moment there is nothing new in Mr Ghosn's allegations against Nissan," Koji Endo, an automotive analyst at SBI Securities, told AFP. "But if Ghosn continues with his negative campaign... the market will get more sceptical about Nissan's fundamental recovery and its brand image," he said. And internally there is "no doubt" that seeing the firm slammed so publicly is hitting morale, Endo said. "I've been told that lots of people continue to resign from Nissan, young engineers" in particular, he added. The Ghosn scandal has already cost Nissan dearly. Its market cap has fallen more than $10 billion since his arrest. "They lost more than $40 million a day," Ghosn said on Wednesday. The losses coincide with an overall crisis in the auto industry, which has hit earnings, but Ghosn argues Nissan's desire to push him out has hurt profits and shareholder value. Bloomberg News has also reported that Nissan spent $200 million on lawyers, investigators and private detectives during the scandal, a claim that insiders dismiss."The figure is ridiculously exaggerated. You probably need to take one zero off," one source inside Nissan told AFP.
'A one-man show'
But there have been other costs related to the case. Nissan was forced to pay a $15 million fine in September to settle an investigation by US securities regulators, who charged that the firm hid more than $140 million in Ghosn's expected retirement income from investors. And in December, it said it would not contest a $22 million fine levied by Japan's Securities and Exchange Commission for filing documents that under-reported Ghosn's compensation. It still faces questions from the Tokyo Stock Exchange, to avoid being delisted, and is the subject of legal action by shareholders in the United States. Internally, the firm says it has tried to clean up shop implementing governance reforms and internal investigations. Among those caught up in that were former CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who stepped down last year after admitting he had received more pay than he was entitled to. Current Nissan executives have remained largely tight-lipped on their former colleague's broadsides. "I don't have time to deal with a one-man show by someone who fled the country in violation of the law," Masakazu Toyoda, an external administrator told reporters acidly when asked for comment. And Nissan's new management likely has more pressing things on its mind: profits have fallen to their lowest level in ten years and sources say a strategy will be presented to the board next week to reverse the slide.

Ghosn Laments Brazil's Failure to 'Pressure' Japan

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 10/2020
Ex-auto tycoon Carlos Ghosn told Brazilian media he was disappointed by the Latin American country's failure to "pressure" authorities in Japan, where he was detained before jumping bail and fleeing to Lebanon. The former Renault-Nissan chief, who was born in Brazil, had been awaiting trial on charges of financial misconduct, which he denies. Ghosn, 65, told the media in Beirut on Wednesday that he fled Japan last month because he would not get a fair trial. He had been held for 130 days under severe conditions. In an interview with GloboNews, Ghosn said President Jair Bolsonaro had previously contacted his sister, Claudine Bichara, who lives in Brazil, raising his expectations for official intervention in his case. "I was hoping that at some point, perhaps some pressure from the Brazilian government for normal, proper treatment would be made," Ghosn said in the interview broadcast Wednesday evening. Ghosn, who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian passports, had hoped Bolsonaro would raise the issue with Japanese officials during his visit to Tokyo in October. "I believe the ministry of foreign affairs told him the Japanese would be upset, so nothing was done."Bolsonaro's office did not immediately respond to AFP's request for comment. Ghosn said he could go to Brazil "without problem" so long as he took a direct flight to "avoid problems with Interpol."Lebanon on Thursday banned Ghosn from traveling after questioning him over an Interpol "red notice." A "red notice" is a request to police across the world to provisionally arrest a person pending extradition, surrender or similar legal action. It is not an arrest warrant. Lebanon does not have an extradition agreement with Japan. Ghosn has argued since his shock November 2018 arrest that the case against him was a bid to block his plans to more closely integrate Nissan with its French partner Renault. Bichara, Ghosn's sister, told Brazilian daily Folha de Sao Paulo that she was disappointed by Brazil's inaction in her brother's case."It preferred to abstain and avoid taking risks, unlike Lebanon," she said.

Bank Audi condemns Jal El Dib Branch incident
NNA/January 10/2020
Bank Audi strongly condemned and regretted in a statement the incident which took place in its Jal El Dib branch this morning.
The Bank acknowledged that both clients and employees are under tremendous pressure, which temporarily led to the situation running out of control. Bank Audi assured that it is conducting a thorough investigation on the incident and taking all necessary measures, if need be.--Bank Audi

Rahi, Salameh tackle financial, economic situation
NNA/January 10/2020
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal, Bechara Boutros Rahi, met this Friday in Bkerke with Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, with whom he discussed the current financial and economic situation in the country. Discussions touched on means to address the current financial and economic crisis, most notably the formation of a government of experts which would restore the confidence of the Lebanese people. On the other hand, Patriarch Rahi met with outgoing Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Massimo Marotti, who came on a farewell visit upon the end of his diplomatic mission in the country.

Othman meets Italian Embassy's Military Attaché
NNA/January 10/2020
Internal Security Forces chief, Major General Imad Othman, received this Friday in his office the Military Attaché at the Italian Embassy in Beirut, Colonel Luciano Antoci, accompanied by Liaison Officer Lieutenant Colonels Sergio Lo Presti and Leonardo Albanesi, who came on a visit aimed at cooperation and coordination. Discussions reportedly touched on the general situation.

Serhan: We are keen on friendly relations with Japan
NNA/January 10/2020
Caretaker Justice Minister, Albert Serhan, affirmed that "the Lebanese State is keen on friendly relations with Japan, and that the case of businessman Carlos Ghosn will not affect the existing cooperation, within the framework of bilateral relations."
Minister Serhan's remarks came during a series of chats with foreign media, where he indicated that "Ghosn was summoned by the State Prosecutor for interrogation, in reference to the international arrest warrant, that is, the red notice issued by the Interpol. It was the duty of the Lebanese judiciary to investigate this matter."
Upon Interrogation, Ghosn was served a travel ban and his French passport was confiscated. "If the Japanese authorities did not initiate a recovery request within 40 days, the travel ban will be dropped," he explained. On the charge of economic normalization with the Israeli enemy, Serhan pointed out that "this file has nothing to do with the charges filed by the Japanese judiciary. Lebanese laws criminalize dealings with the Israeli enemy. Ghosn was thus summoned by the State Prosecution, interrogated, and also banned from traveling.""Ghosn’s wife Carole will be questioned by Lebanese prosecutors when authorities receive an Interpol notice," he added. "Carole will be subject to the same procedures that were followed for (Carlos) when the red notice was received from Interpol." Serhan said he "discussed with the Japanese Ambassador (...) the existing bilateral relations and the keenness on friendship and cooperation ties," stressing that "the Lebanese judiciary will carry out its duty independently and transparently, as evidenced by what happened during the interrogation.

Captagon smuggling to Britain foiled, smuggler arrested
NNA/January 10/2020
The General Directorate of Internal Security Forces issued a statement saying: "In the context of the pursuit of drug smuggling networks and people involved in such operations, and as a result of vigorous follow-up, monitoring and tracing, a patrol from the Anti-narcotics Office in the Judicial Police Unit was able to arrest a Syrian born in 1987 in the neighborhood of Hay El- Sellom, for the crime of smuggling a quantity of about 4000 captagon pills, seized by the airport customs, packed inside coffee packs and en route to Britain."

Roukoz: Cabinet is absent, Central Bank Governor polishing his own image
NNA /January 10/2020
Member of Parliament, Chamel Roukoz, on Friday warned via his Twitter account that "the USD dollar has almost hit LBP 2500 whilst the government is absent and its head is a tourist who has resigned from his duties."Roukoz also said that Lebanese Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, was working on polishing his own image instead of polishing the country's financial image. He slammed Salameh's new claim that "banks are not obliged to give USD to depositors."
"Despite all this, a solution still exists; however, it requires a different mentality," the MP's tweet added.

UNICEF calls on all stakeholders to put children first and ensure their safeguarding in these times of crisis in Lebanon
NNA/January 10/2020
UNICEF has called on all stakeholders to put children first and to ensure their safeguarding in these times of crisis in Lebanon. "As the new year begins, it is time for all of us to put children first and ensure their safeguarding in these times of crisis in Lebanon. All of us -national and international institutions, civil society, private sector, communities, families- must act now to protect girls and boys from the impact of the deepening economic crisis. The situation is deteriorating and increasing the challenges for all children, especially those in families already living in poverty.
According to the available estimates, more than one in four Lebanese families live in poverty, and the crisis is now impacting many families, and much more so children than adults. Exacerbation of poverty is also expected among other vulnerable households in Lebanon.
Increasing poverty can affect girls and boys in many ways, including harming their nutrition, education and health, as well as having long-term impacts on their emotional and social development, future potential and wellbeing. Such crises can lead to an increased risk of abuse and neglect, and higher levels of child labour and child marriage. Young people face reduced opportunities to continue to learn, build their skills and find dignified work.
In such a situation, girls and boys must be the first to be protected and safeguarded by all stakeholders, especially since they will be the foundation of Lebanon's recovery, and the limited public resources in the national budget should be used to protect and prioritize children and young people.
UNICEF is adjusting its strategies to expand our reach to the most vulnerable girls, boys and young people by scaling-up our new Integrated Programme for Child Wellbeing, increasing programmes for adolescent and youth skills development, and providing cash support to 100,000 of the most vulnerable families. While Lebanon's social protection system struggles to effectively respond to the ongoing crisis for now, UNICEF continues to support access to basic social services and development of national social assistance and calls on all actors to rapidly expand social assistance to poor families. UNICEF-supported programmes continue to address Lebanese children and other children living in Lebanon, and we work with partners and donors to deepen our programming and ensure its funding to expand our support to children and families at risk of falling into poverty in these times of crisis."

AUB Professor Saouma Boujaoude awarded top honor for distinguished contributions to science education
NNA/January 10/2020
In a press release by the American University of Beirut (AUB), IT SAID: "Professor Saouma BouJaoude, associate dean at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and director of the Center for Teaching and Learning at the American University of Beirut (AUB) was awarded top honor by NARST, a global organization for improving science education through research. BouJaoude was selected to receive the NARST 2020 Distinguished Contributions to Science Education through Research Award (DCRA). This honor recognizes his professional accomplishments as the most significant among other researchers nominated for the DCRA this year. "AUB has provided me with the nourishing and demanding environment along with the support that allowed me to pursue my passion for science education," commented BouJaoude.
BouJaoude is an engaged scholar who has impacted science education at the local, regional, and international level. His scholarly productivity spans many areas from curriculum, to teachers, to students. At the core of this continuous line of work is his passion for the improvement of the educational condition for many students and teachers. As a tireless scholar and advocate for science education, he also mentors many students and faculty, and serves on numerous national and international committees. As stated by a fellow science educator, BouJaoude's dedication to the field of science education has resulted in his being the "nucleus of science education [in] the Arab region and an essential bridge between the region and the international science education community."
"I am delighted and proud that Professor Saouma BouJaoude will be awarded the Distinguished Contributions to Science Education Award from the National Association for Research in Science Teaching (NARST)," said AUB President Dr. Fadlo R. Khuri. "This is the most prestigious award that NARST confers. In adding this latest, even more luminous recognition to the Kuwait Prize, which Professor Saouma BouJaoude deservedly received in 2018, this magnificent, humble and accomplished educator and servant leader of AUB continues to bring enormous acclaim to the university." Khuri continued, "Saouma is an educator's educator, and a scholar's scholar. In perusing the previous stellar winners of this award, it is clear that all are in even greater company now that they have been joined by the matchless Saouma BouJaoude."

'Time and its Unknown Dimensions' as viewed by the Esoteric Science by Dr. Joseph B. Majdalani (JBM)
NNA/January 10/2020
After the notable success of the fortieth esoteric publication in Arabic "Time and its Unknown Dimensions", written by Dr. Joseph B. Majdalani (JBM), the book is translated into English, in 96 medium sized pages and is published by the Society of Friends of the White Knowledge, based in Beirut - Lebanon.
With this seventh publication in English, added to more than one hundred esoteric publications in eight languages, the remarkable abundance of the esoteric publications, by Dr. Joseph B. Majdalani (JBM), has become certain to the readers. In an unprecedented novelty, they delve in all that is unknown, connecting the outer with the inner to enrich Man's life and to reveal the invisible in a workable logic, linking reality with the eternal truth.
A lot has been written about Time. It has been speculated, philosophised and debated; moreover, Einstein's theory of Relativity was studied and taught, however it seems that no one looked at Time in its cosmic dimensions, not to say in its absolute existence.
The unveiled truths of "TIME AND ITS UNKNOWN DIMENSIONS" fathom out mysteries and secrets that surround the element of Time from the initial stages of its existence. The book elucidates that "It is the Universal Mind that invented the Time factor to embrace within it the childhood of creation". Also, the book differentiates between two important notions, namely time (وقت) as a terrestrial dimension measured in days, months or years, and Time (زمن) at a higher level measured as a cosmic dimension in life cycles and stages of evolution. This is just a glance into this valuable book.
The book "TIME AND ITS UNKNOWN DIMENSIONS" explains also that "the nature of Time is based on the succession of mental images on the screen of consciousness, whether through the physical senses or the inner esoteric senses. Without this succession of mental images, there would not be any sense of Time".On another front, have we ever asked why has astronomy taken such an important spot during the civilisations of Babylon and Ancient Egypt? What is the role of crystals in bringing together the different time dimensions latent in the subconscious? Will the future witness the discovery of the "Time Manuscript" followed by the discovery of "The Apparatus of Time"? Noting that the book reveals that this Apparatus, made of a crystal sphere, was invented by the Atlanteans to bring them closer to the physical concept of time and make them accustomed to the fact that time on Earth is but a miniature of the Time dimensions in the beyond. The quality of the Esoteric Science is that it goes back in every research, to the unknown origins, in quests and inquiries that use scientific logic synchronized with the logic of everyday life.
Accordingly, the book delves in the dimensions of Time, and explains it with illustrations. It presents its brilliant findings as an appetizing mental plate, enjoyed by every reader in his workaday life.
These are some of glimpses into this interesting book, which offers ample scientific explanations and vivid revelations on the secret of practical application.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 10-11/2020
Iran Civil Aviation Boss 'Certain' Ukraine Plane Not Hit by Missile
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 10/2020
Iran's civil aviation chief Ali Abedzadeh said Friday he was "certain" a Ukrainian airliner which crashed outside Tehran this week was not hit by a missile. "One thing is for certain, this airplane was not hit by a missile," Abedzadeh told a news conference in Tehran after Britain and Canada both said intelligence sources suggested a catastrophic error by Iranian air defence batteries had downed the aircraft. "The information in the black boxes ... is crucial for the aviation organisation to make a statement," Abedzadeh said, adding that they were intact and under examination. Dismissing allegations against Iran, he said that "any remarks made before the data is extracted ... is not an expert opinion."The statements from Britain and Canada came as video footage emerged that appeared to show the moment the airliner was hit. The footage, which The New York Times said it had verified, shows a fast-moving object rising to an angle into the sky before a flash is seen, which dims and then continues moving forward. Several seconds later an explosion is heard. "We have seen some videos. We confirm that the airplane was on fire for 60 to 70 seconds," Abedzadeh said. But "that it was hit by something cannot be scientifically correct," he added.

US Sec Pompeo says it is ‘likely’ Ukrainian plane shot down by Iranian missile
Al Arabiya English/Friday/January 10/2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday that the Trump administration believes the Ukrainian plane that crashed in Tehran on Wednesday was shot down by an Iranian missile. “We do believe it is likely that the plane was shot down by an Iranian missile. We are going to let the investigation play out before we make a final determination,” Pompeo said during a news conference from the White House. The Ukraine International Airlines flight crashed shortly after take-off on Wednesday from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport. All 176 people on board were killed. A Pentagon and senior US intelligence officials, as well as an Iraqi intelligence official, said they believe the flight was hit by a Russian-made Tor missile, according to a Newsweek report. Iran’s civil aviation chief said he is “certain” that the plane was not hit by a missile. Soleimani said to be plotting imminent attacks on American facilities before deathز Pompeo also said that Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani was plotting imminent attacks on American facilities throughout the Middle East, before he was killed in a US-ordered drone strike in Baghdad on January 3. “It was very clear Qassem Soleimani himself was plotting a broad, large-scale attack against American interests and those attacks were imminent...against American facilities throughout the region,” said Pompeo. “We had specific information on an imminent threat and that threat stream included attacks on US embassies,” said Pompeo.
New sanctions on Iranز US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed further additional sanctions on the Iranian regime, previously announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, including eight senior Iranian officials. “As a result of the attack on US and allied troops…the President is issuing an executive order authorizing the imposition of additional sanctions against any individual owning, operating, trading with, or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy,” said Mnuchin. Mnuchin also announced 17 specific sanctions against Iran’s largest steel and iron manufacturers. “Today’s sanctions are part of our commitment to stop the Iranian regime’s global terrorist activities,” said Mnuchin.

EU ministers to focus on bringing Iran back into nuclear deal: Slovakia
Reuters, Paris/Friday, 10 January 2020
Slovakia’s foreign minister said on Friday the Iran nuclear deal was not dead and that European Union foreign ministers would focus on finding ways on how to bring Tehran back into the accord after its decision to scrap enrichment limits. “The steps they announced are reversible and verification by the IAEA [nuclear watchdog] is ongoing, but we are not happy with the step 5 that was announced,” Miroslav Lajcakbut told reporters on arrival at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels.“It is not the end if the game. We hope that we can help Iran return to the game.”

Pompeo: US stands with Ukraine, ready to support investigation
Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 10 January 2020
The US stands with Ukraine and is ready to support the ongoing investigation into the Ukrainian International Airlines plane which crashed in Iran, said US Secretary of State Pompeo on Twitter. Pompeo added that he had spoken to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to express his condolences and signaled that the US would support the investigation into the causes of the crash. The crash killed 176 people, including 11 Ukrainians. President Zelenskiy said he had received important data from the US about the flight.Western leaders have said that it is likely the plane was brought down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, which Iran denies.

US announces new sanctions on Iran after missile strikes on bases in Iraq
Arab News/January 10/2020
WASHINGTON: The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iran on Friday following the Islamic Republic's attacks on US air bases in Iraq. "We are announcing additional sanctions against the Iranian regime," US Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin said at a White House news conference with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Mnuchin said President Donald Trump will issue an executive order imposing sanctions on anyone involved in the Iranian manufacturing, construction, textile or mining sectors. Separate sanctions will also hit the steel and iron sectors.
The new sanctions target eight senior Iranian officials involved in what Pompeo called “destabilizing activities” in the Middle East as well as Tuesday's missile strike. “As a result of these actions we will cut off billions of dollars of support to the Iranian regime,” the Treasury secretary said. Trump's administration has already reinstated all the US sanctions that were eased under the 2015 nuclear deal, which has caused significant economic hardship in Iran and cut its oil exports to historic lows. Iran this week launched the strikes in retaliation for the US drone strike that killed Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Qassem Soleimani, the country's most powerful commander, in Baghdad last week.Meanwhile, Mnuchin said the Treasury will grant sanction waivers to allow American citizens or any one else to participate in the investigation of Wednesday's crash of an Ukrainian International Boeing 737-800 airliner in Iran that killed 176 people. Under U.S. sanctions law, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) must grant approval for U.S. investigators and Boeing Co to participate and potentially travel to Iran. Boeing said Friday it was working with the Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board "on the necessary applications and approvals from OFAC for the appropriate export licenses."Pompeo said it was "likely that plane was shot down by an Iranian missile." Elsewhere on Friday, the US military tried, but failed, to take out another senior Iranian commander in Yemen on the same day that an American airstrike killed Soleimani, US officials said. The officials said a military airstrike targeted Abdul Reza Shahla’i, a high-ranking commander in Iran's IRGC but the mission was not successful. (With Reuters)

Dutch minister says Iran likely shot down Ukraine airliner

Reuters, Brussels/Friday, 10 January 2020
It was very likely that an Iranian missile shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, the Dutch foreign minister said on Friday, adding that the European Union’s next steps would depend on how Tehran reacts to the results of an investigation. “It is indeed very likely that the plane has been shot down by Iranian missiles,” Stef Blok told reporters ahead of an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels. Asked whether Iran should be sanctioned, Blok said: “It depends on the Iranian reaction [to the outcome of independent analysis] on what should be the next steps.”

Iran's envoy to UK denies any clearing of plane crash site: Report
Reuters/Friday, 10 January 2020
The Iranian ambassador to Britain denied on Friday reports that Iran had bulldozed the crash site in Iran of a Ukrainian plane that Canada and others say was brought down by a missile, he told Sky News.
Hamid Baeidinejad, who tweeted the Sky News excerpt, said such reports were "absolutely absurd". Iran has denied that a missile caused the crash.

We will not discuss withdrawal of US troops from Iraq: US State Department
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 10 January 2020
Any delegation the United States would send to Iraq would not discuss the withdrawal of US troops from the country, the US State Department said on Friday, saying the force presence there was “appropriate.”
“There does, however, need to be a conversation between the US and Iraqi governments not just regarding security, but about our financial, economic, and diplomatic partnership,” department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.

NATO chief backs assessment Iran missile downed plane
AFP/Friday, 10 January 2020
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Friday he had no reason to doubt reports from Western capitals suggesting an Iranian missile brought down a Ukrainian airliner, killing 176 people.“I will not go into details about our intelligence but what I can say is we have no reason to not believe the reports we have seen from different NATO-allied capitals,” Stoltenberg said. Canada and Britain have both said Iran shot down the plane outside Tehran, possibly mistakenly.

Iran confirms safety of its airspace after international airlines suspend flights
Al Arabiya English/Friday, 10 January 2020
Iran's Aviation Authority confirmed Friday the safety of its airspace after a number of international airlines announced they suspended flights to Tehran. Lufthansa earlier announced it has suspended all flights to Iran until further notice. Sweden’s Transportation agency also said Friday it had temporarily halted Iran Air flights between Sweden and Iran after the crash of the Ukrainian airliner near Tehran on Wednesday which killed all 176 people on board. Australian carrier Qantas said on Wednesday it was altering its London to Perth, Australia, routes to avoid Iran and Iraq airspace until further notice. Several other airlines on Wednesday canceled flights to Iran or rerouted to avoid Iranian airspace.

Iran to announce reason behind Ukraine airliner crash on Saturday: Fars
Agencies/Friday, 10 January 2020
Iran said it will announce the reason for the crash of the Ukrainian airliner tomorrow, Saturday, according to Fars news agency. Tehran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner crash that killed all 176 people aboard, amid Western suspicions the plane was brought down by an Iranian missile, probably by mistake. The crash has heightened international pressure on Iran after months of friction with the United States and tit-for-tat military strikes. Washington killed an Iranian general last week in Iraq, prompting Tehran to fire at US targets.

Iraq files complaint on Iran at the UN Security Council: Document
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 10 January 2020
Iraq has sent a letter to the UN Security Council, according to a document obtained by Al Arabiya on Friday, complaining about Iran. In the letter addressed written by Iraq’s Permeant Representative to the United Nations Mohammed al-Uloom, Iraq said it considered the bombing of Iraqi lands under the pretext of Iran’s defense “is totally unacceptable and violates the principles of good neighborliness.”The Iraqi complaint also denounced the UN Security Council of involving the country in regional or international conflicts. Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi had confirmed earlier on Friday that his country rejected all operations that violate his country’s sovereignty, including the recent Iranian operation that targeted the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar and another in Erbil, pointing out that he is making constant efforts to contact all parties to prevent Iraq from turning into a battlefield. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced on Tuesday that it had carried out a missile attack on Ain al-Assad base in Anbar province in western Iraq, and another base in Erbil, both of which houses US forces. After the targeting, the IRGC said that any measures the United States would take in response to the attacks in Tehran by Iraq would be met by another response, according to Iranian state television.

Iran will be further mistrusted if it does not investigate crash properly: German FM

Reuters/Friday, 10 January 2020
Iran will be further mistrusted by the international community if the cause of the Ukrainian plane crash is not fully investigated, said Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Friday.

Albanian PM denounces Iran’s ‘malicious activities’ after Khamenei threats

Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya EnglishFriday, 10 January 2020
Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama called out the “blind brutality” and “malicious activity” of the Iranian regime after its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to threaten his country online. Khamenei took to Twitter last week to call out “a small European country” where “mercenaries and traitors joined some foreigners and tried to conspiracy against the Islamic Republic of Iran.” His tweet was understood as a reference to Albania, which has hosted Iranian refugees including members of the Mujahideen al-Khalq (MEK) group who fled from persecution in the Islamic Republic, initially to Iraq. They were resettled to Albania under a UN program in the years 2013-2016. “Albania gave shelter to the so-called ‘traitors’ that mister Khamenei wants to kill. They came to Albania through a humanitarian operation coordinated with the United States,” Rama told Al Arabiya English, adding that Albania had a long history of humanitarianism. Khamenei’s words were “simply one more example of the blind brutality of the Tehran regime,” said Rama. Rama also called out Iran’s “brutal dictatorship” for planning “malicious activity” in Albania. Last October, Albanian authorities discovered an Iranian terrorist paramilitary network allegedly planning attacks on the MEK in the country. “When you listen to how Mr. Khamenei unleashes his tongue towards our small country, it’s not difficult to find the answer,” when asked who was behind the attacks and whom they were targeting, said Rama. Albania expelled Iran’s ambassador and another diplomat for “damaging its national security” in October 2018. “Our relations with Iran are at [their] lowest level ever, because of the malicious activity within our territory of top Iranian diplomats that we had to expel,” explained Rama, who added that “we expect everything from those guys” in reference to the possibility of Tehran planning future attacks. Rama added that Albania supported the US and its regional allies in confronting Iran, amid escalating tensions following Iranian missile attacks on military bases in Iraq. “We strongly support United States and President Trump in showing to the Tehran regime that enough is enough,” said Rama. “We very much hope Iranian leaders will choose peace and respect of others, instead of malicious activities, threats towards the others and pain inflicted to its own population,” he added.
Matthew Amlôt, Al Arabiya English, contributed to this article.

Russia says no grounds to blame Iran for Ukrainian plane crash: TASS

Reuters, Moscow/Friday, 10 January 2020
A Russian deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow currently sees no grounds to blame Iran for the crash of a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran, contradicting statements by Canada and others, the TASS news agency reported. Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday that the airliner that crashed on Wednesday was likely brought down by an Iranian missile, citing intelligence from Canadian and other sources. Sergei Ryabkov, who is one of several Russian deputy foreign ministers, called on senior world officials to refrain from public statements until more details are known, TASS reported.

EU demands ‘independent, credible’ probe into Iran crash

AFP, Brussels/Friday, 10 January 2020
The European Union on Friday demanded an “independent and credible” probe into the crash of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran which killed all 176 people on board. “It is very important for us that the investigation that takes place happens through an independent and credible civil safety investigation conducted in line with the International Civil Aviation Organization rules,” European Commission spokesman Stefan de Keersmaecker told reporters, after Western governments suggested the plane was brought down by an Iranian missile.

Pakistan mosque blast kills senior police officer, 8 others

The Associated Press, Quetta/Friday, 10 January 2020
A powerful explosion ripped through a mosque in southwest Pakistan during Friday evening prayers, killing a senior police officer and at least eight civilians, police said. The bombing also wounded 11 other worshipers in the city of Quetta, the capital of the restive Baluchistan province, said local police chief Mohammad Ajmal. The slain police officer was the likely target of the attack, but authorities were still investigating, Ajmal said. Both he and hospital officials said the death toll from the bombing could rise as some of the wounded were in critical condition. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the bombing. But the attack came just days after a roadside bomb in Quetta hit a paramilitary force vehicle, killing two troops. Hizbul Ahrar, an offshoot of the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for Tuesday’s attack. Last May, a bombing at a mosque in Quetta killed two people, including the prayer leader, and wounded 28 worshipers. Although Pakistani militants often carry out such attacks, Baluchistan province is also the scene of a low-level insurgency by separatists demanding more autonomy and a greater share in the region’s natural resources such as gas and oil. The province shares a long border with Afghanistan and Iran.

US, Canadian, French representatives to attend Iran plane crash investigation meetings

Reuters, Dubai/Friday, 10 January 2020
US, Canadian and French representatives are to travel to Tehran to attend meetings for the Iran-led investigation into the Ukrainian airliner incident, Iranian state media reported on Friday.“As soon as they will arrive they will attend the meetings to investigate reasons for the crash," IRNA reported. Canada and others said the plane was brought down by an Iranian missile, probably by mistake.

Germany rejects Trump call to ditch Iran nuclear pact
AFP, Berlin/Friday, 10 January 2020
Germany said Friday it still wanted “to save” the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, rejecting US President Donald Trump’s plea for Europeans to quit the pact. “Our goal is still to save the agreement because we remain convinced that it’s the right instrument to prevent Iran from possible nuclear armament,” foreign ministry spokesman Rainer Breul said in Berlin. His comments echoed those by Britain and France, who have also stressed their continued commitment to the deal. Trump on Wednesday pulled back from the brink of war with Iran, but said “the time had come” for fellow signatories to “break away from the remnants” of the nuclear accord. “We want to use all the possibilities offered by the [deal] to move towards a diplomatic solution,” Breul told reporters. He urged Tehran “to return its commitments” under the 2015 agreement struck with the US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China.
The deal has been unravelling ever since Trump withdrew the United States from the pact in 2018. After the US reimposed sanctions on Iran, Tehran started breaching some aspects of the accord and on Sunday announced it no longer felt compelled to stick to any limits for making the enriched uranium needed for nuclear power. The European signatories must decide in the coming days whether to take action against Tehran for reneging on its commitments which could lead to renewed UN sanctions. France on Thursday said it remained “committed to the framework of the Vienna Iran nuclear accord.”British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the deal remained “the best arrangement currently available.”

Air Strike Kills 8 Iraq Paramilitaries in East Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 10/2020
An air strike in eastern Syria killed eight fighters of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary force overnight, a war monitor said on Friday. "Unidentified aircraft targeted vehicles and arms depots in the Albu Kamal area, causing a large explosion. At least eight Iraqi Hashed fighters were killed," the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman, said. He said several others were wounded. Through a spokesman contacted by AFP, the US-led military coalition operating in Syria and Iraq denied carrying out the strike. Abdel Rahman said three villages in the Albu Kamal area known for housing forces loyal to Tehran have been targeted by drone strikes since Wednesday, causing no casualties. The deadly strike comes in a context of spiralling tension between the United States and Iran, much of which has played out in Iraq. Late last year, a US air strike in Iraq killed 25 Hashed fighters from the Kataeb Hezbollah militia, considered one of the closest to Tehran. Hashed supporters subsequently stormed the huge US embassy compound in central Baghdad, further escalating the situation. On January 3, a US strike near Baghdad airport killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran's feared external operations supremo, in one of the Middle East's highest-profile assassinations of recent years. Also killed in the strike was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a founder of Kataeb Hezbollah and seen as Iran's man in Iraq.
Tehran has vowed bloody revenge and has so far responded with ballistic missiles on a base in western Iraq housing US and other coalition troops. Iran claimed the strikes killed 80 people but neither the US nor the Iraqi military reported any casualties.

Iran’s attack on US airbase in Iraq finds Israel vulnerable to same kind of ballistic missile strike
DEBKAfile/January 10/2020
The breakthrough achieved by Iran in upgrading the precision of its ballistic missiles was displayed in its Jan. 8 attack on the big US Ain Al-Asad airbase in W. Iraq. US President Donald Trump laid stress on the absence of casualties and “minimal damage” caused, adding “our early warning system worked very well.” Then, on Jan. 9, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Aerospace chief Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said: “Our goal was to destroy the central command room of the base and that is what we did.”
But meanwhile, the US commercial Planet company stepped in with revealing satellite photos of the attack and its impact, showing that at least five structures at the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq – hangars and buildings – were “hit hard by a barrage of Iranian missiles.” They were precise enough to strike some individual buildings “dead center,” said one analyst. DEBKAfile’s military sources affirm that Iran fired in all 13 Qiam-1 ballistic missiles, designated as “short range.” They are elderly weapons developed by Iran from the Shahab-2 that was a copy of the North Korean North Korean Hwasong-6, which in turn replicated the Soviet-era Scud-C missile. The Qiam 1 has a range of 750km and 500m accuracy.
The president was not asked about the failure of the most advanced US anti-missile systems to intercept the Iranian missiles at Ain Al-Asad. (The second US base targeted by Iran at Irbil in Kurdistan was evacuated some days earlier.) This could be down to three alternative breakdowns: either the early warning systems did not detect the missiles’ launch from Iran; or the interceptors did not react when the missiles exploded inside the base; or both.
Clearly, in the five months since its missile/drone attack on Saudi oil facilities on Sept. 14, Iran has made further strides in developing the precision of its missiles, whereas the US early warning systems were not correspondingly upgraded.
Iran therefore brought off the first missile attack on US military targets since the Korean War. The implications for America’s military deterrence are plain, but no less grave are the implications for Israel. The Iranian general stressed that the missile attack on American bases in neighboring Iraq was “only the start of a series of attacks that will take place across the entire region.”Israel has no illusions about its standing with America on the front line against Iran. And if the US military is short of answers for defense against Iran’s ballistic missiles, Israel whose early warning and anti-missile systems are based on American models is in the same boat. The Iranian strike on US bases in Iraq on Jan. 8 must serve as an immediate red alert for Israel on what to expect. Instead of telling the Israeli public fairy stories about their country’s non-involvement in the spiraling armed contest between the US and Iran, it would be better for the government to tell the people frankly that Israel is more exposed than ever to Iranian missile aggression.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 10-11/2020
Analysis/Iran Retaliated. Now May Come the Covert Proxy Revenge
Amos Harel/Haaretz/January 10/2020
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: انتقمت إيران لإغتيال سليماني ولكن قد تأتي لاحقاً ردود مقنعة لأذرعتها
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82183/%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%85%d8%aa-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%ba%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%b3%d9%84%d9%8a/
Qassem Soleimani wasn't the only high-profile target assassinated by the U.S.
The Iranian response to the U.S. assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was delivered Tuesday overnight in an expected location – Iraq – but with rather limited intensity. The dozen missiles fired at joint American and Iraqi military bases caused relatively little damage.
President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House on Wednesday, insisted there were no casualties, but this didn’t stop Tehran, through its media outlets, from claiming dozens of American troops were killed.
There are some similarities between these latest developments and the spike in tensions between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah in September. With Iran’s encouragement, Hezbollah retaliated to a series of attacks against Iran-backed Shi’ite groups in the region attributed to the Israeli army, while Israel claimed responsibility for only one of them.
Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel soared as the organization’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and other top figures threatened harsh responses for the attacks, and eventually came to a head when anti-tank missiles were fired at an Israeli military ambulance on the border with Lebanon. The incident, which came after a week of growing hostilities, caused some damage but no casualties.
Nonetheless, Hezbollah claimed (in part on the basis of a diversionary maneuver carried out by the Israel Defense Forces) that Israeli troops were killed in the incident. In any event, it was abundantly clear that Nasrallah wanted to find a way to end that round of violence instead of intensifying it, even if Hezbollah didn’t succeed in killing Israelis.
This week, Iranian officials declared they would avenge Soleimani’s death, and even marked their target – American forces deployed in Iraq. Their partners, including Nasrallah, talked about the need to expel the 5,000 American troops from Iraq and to completely eliminate the U.S. military presence in the region. The fact that the recent series of events between the U.S. and Iran, which culminated in Soleimani’s assassination on January 3, took place in Iraq was surely another consideration behind Iran’s choice of Iraq as the setting for its retaliation.
It occasionally bears repeating that the Iranian leadership is radical in its faith and stances, but it is not irrational. The balance of power between Iran and the United States is clear and the Iranians are certainly not interested in a direct military confrontation at the moment. Thus, Western intelligence agencies, and Trump, according to his Wednesday statement, are under the general impression that the immediate Iranian response to Soleimani’s death will be confined to the missile strike. In his statement, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif implied that Iran “took proportionate self-defense measures” after it was attacked and is not seeking further escalation.
However, this assessment does not rule out the possibility of further attacks at a later stage, perhaps carried out covertly and without officially assuming responsibility. Iran and Hezbollah have done this is the past, when they set in motion plans to avenge the death of Hezbollah’s first secretary general, Abbas al-Musawi, and the assassinations of Hezbollah senior leader Imad Mughniyeh and Iranian nuclear scientists in 2008, all of which were attributed to Israel, with American involvement in the case of Mughniyeh. Weeks, or even months, could go by between the operations and the Iranian retaliation.
It seems that in the long-run the Iranians will continue working to achieve the strategic goal they set for themselves – the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also declared Wednesday morning that Tehran’s main objective was to force American forces to withdraw from the entire region.
When asked about the issue on Tuesday, Trump was evasive, reiterating his claim that he would demand compensation from Iraq for the presence of the American military on its soil. However, his reluctance to remain in the country is evident, and in the coming months the Iranians will likely step up pressure to make U.S. forces pull out of Iraq.
“Eventually we want to be able to allow Iraq to run its own affairs. This isn’t the right point,” Trump said. The president apparently does not understand why U.S. troops should stay in Iraq, despite the pressure exerted by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and other countries concerned about the ramifications of a possible American retreat.
The Iranians are having a tough week – Soleimani’s assassination, a deadly stampede during the top general’s funeral, the crash of an Ukrainian airplane (with many Iranian nationals on board) shortly after takeoff from Tehran, and even, to top it all off, an earthquake, which struck the country on Wednesday morning.
There is no doubt that Trump surprised Tehran by taking out Soleimani. He may well have thrown the Iranian leadership off-balance. But it is premature to conclude that the assassination, and Iran’s lax response, are tantamount to defeat, showing Iran’s vulnerability to an attack aimed at its nuclear sites. It’s far too early to eulogize the Iranians, who could still cause major regional damage if they so desire.

France, The "Budding Islamic Republic"
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/January 10/2020
In a country that used to stand for freedom of expression, self-censorship is soaring.
"For the past five years, I've been going to the police station every month or so to file a complaint about death threats, not insults, death threats". — Marika Bret, a journalist at Charlie Hebdo today, January 8, 2020.
"Nobody dares to publish caricatures of Mohammed anymore. Self-censorship prevails.... Hate is directed against those who resist obscuring information rather than against those who obscure it. Not to mention the psychiatrization of terrorism in order better to exonerate Islam. If we had been told in the early 2000s that in 2020, around 20 French cartoonists and intellectuals would be under police protection, no one would have believed it." — Pascal Bruckner, author.
A Jewish woman, Sarah Halimi, was tortured and murdered in her Paris apartment by her neighbor, Kobili Traoré, who was yelling "Allahu Akbar." A court of appeals recently ruled that Traoré, because he had smoked cannabis, was "not criminally responsible" for his actions. As France's Chief Rabbi Haim Korsia said, it is a "license to kill Jews".
In France, a country that used to stand for freedom of expression, self-censorship is soaring five years after the terrorist attack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. On January 7, 2015, the jihadists Chérif and Saïd Kouachi murdered 12 people and wounded 11 more when they attacked the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris. Pictured: A bullet-riddled police car at the site of the attack, January 7, 2015.
"Five years after the killings at Charlie Hebdo and Hyper Cacher, France has learned to live with the Islamist threat," wrote Yves Thréard, deputy editor at the daily newspaper Le Figaro.
"Not a month goes by... without a murderous attack with the cry of 'Allahu Akbar' taking place on our soil.... But what is the point of fighting the effects of Islamism if we do not tackle the origins of this ideology of death? On that front, however, denial continues to compete with naiveté. Nothing has changed in the last five years. On the contrary.
"In the name of diversity, non-discrimination and human rights, France has accepted a number of blows to its culture and history... Islamists are a hot-button issue. They continue the fight which, even without weapons, has all the allure of a war of civilizations. Is the famous 'Charlie spirit', which some people thought was blowing after the January 2015 attacks, just an illusion?"
France has been marking the fifth anniversary of the deadly jihadist attack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, which took place on January 7, 2015. Last month, French Senator Nathalie Goulet warned that more attacks were likely. "In France we have a serious problem and we need to do more to prevent extremists from acting. As it stands, there will be more attacks," said Goulet said.
There are believed to be 12,000 radical Islamists on France's terror watch-list, "however only a dozen are thought to be under 24-hour surveillance."
This week was marked by yet a new string of Islamist terror attacks: police injured a knife-wielding man on a street in the northeastern city of Metz, two days after a suspected Islamist radical in the Paris suburb of Villejuif stabbed a man to death, an act that prosecutors are treating as a terror attack. In both incidents, the assailants shouted "Allahu Akbar." This type of attack was dubbed "ordinary jihad" in a Le Figaro editorial this week.
On January 7, 2015, the cartoonists and journalists Cabu, Charb, Honoré, Tignous and Wolinski, the psychoanalyst Elsa Cayat, the economist Bernard Maris and the policeman Franck Brinsolaro fell under the bullets of the jihadist brothers Chérif and Saïd Kouachi. Charlie Hebdo's 2020 anniversary issue commemorated the massacre and slammed the "new gurus of monolithic thinking" who are trying to impose politically correct censorship.
The outburst of indignation of the French people, gathered in Paris for a massive demonstration on January 11, 2015, was not enough to awaken the spirit of resistance of the French leaders and elites against Islamism and its collaborators. "The seriousness of the Islamist political fact in France is strongly underestimated", says the lawyer Thibault de Montbrial, president France's Center for Internal Security Studies.
In a country that used to stand for freedom of expression, self-censorship is soaring. "For the humorists in France, it's always easy to make fun of the Pope and the Catholics, it's always easy to make fun of Jews, it's always easy to make fun of Protestants," confesses a long-time Charlie Hebdo columnist, Patrick Pelloux. For Islam, it is not easy. "We feel that this religion is scary. The word Islam is scary, and on that, the terrorists have won." Submission is winning.
While French prisons have become a breeding ground for jihadists, the Islamization of the cities' suburbs, the banlieues, is proceeding full tilt. The weekly Le Point recently devoted a cover story to the "territories conquered by the Islamists." In many of these areas, violence rages; 1,500 cars were torched there on New Year's Eve. In recently published book, "Les territoires conquis de l'islamisme" ("The Territories Conquered by Islamism"), by Bernard Rougier, a professor at the University Sorbonne-Nouvelle and director of the Center for Arab and Oriental Studies, he explains that Islamism is an "hegemonic project", splintering working-class neighborhoods. These "ecosystems", he states, work on a "logic of rupture" of the French society, its values and institutions, and are built on mosques, bookstores, sport clubs and halal restaurants.
Hugo Micheron, a researcher at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, suggested that jihadists are comfortable in "territorial and community isolation". "Today," said the president of the Ministry of Education's Conseil supérieur des programmes, Souâd Ayada, "the visibility of Islam in France is saturated by the veil and the jihad". While Islamist preachers and recruiters are out on the streets, seeking out the weak minds that will form the first line of their holy war, political Islam also forms electoral lists in France's suburbs. French President Emmanuel Macron opposed banning these political groups. "France is a budding Islamic republic," noted the Algerian novelist Boualem Sansal. In those "territories", he said, live many of the terrorists who attack France, from the Kouachi brothers of Charlie Hebdo to the jihadists who murdered scores of people at the Bataclan Theater.
Two populations who live "side by side" would soon find themselves "face to face", said Gérard Collomb, a former Minister of the Interior. He was right. Islamists are also housed inside public institutions.
Islamists have, in addition, recruited dozens of French soldiers and ex-servicemen who have converted to Islam. Many have come from commando units with expertise in handling weapons and explosives. France is turning into a "society of vigilance" in its fight against the "Hydra" of Islamist militancy, as Macron said. In the five years since the massacre at Charlie Hebdo, which targeted freedom of expression, Islamists have been able to commit atrocities against targets such as a priest in a Catholic Church in Rouen; a national secular holiday (the Bastille Day attack in Nice); Jewish communities (from Paris to Toulouse), and ordinary people. Last October, an Islamist struck in one of France's most secure buildings: the monumental Paris Police headquarters near Notre Dame cathedral, where he murdered four of his colleagues. "This is a major turning point in Islamist terrorism", said Gilles Kepel, an expert on Middle East and jihadism. "It is hard to believe that the police on which we rely to protect us and which is supposed to be our last rampart against terrorism, can itself be the victim of terrorism, with throats slit in the holy of holies of the Police Prefecture".
In the wake of the attack, seven police officers, "suspected of radicalization," had their guns confiscated.
"I have the impression that our immune defenses have collapsed and that Islamism is winning", says the French writer Pascal Bruckner.
"Its main demands have been met: nobody dares to publish caricatures of Mohammed anymore. Self-censorship prevails.... Hate is directed against those who resist obscuring information rather than against those who obscure it. Not to mention the psychiatrization of terrorism, in order better to exonerate Islam. If we had been told in the early 2000s that in 2020, around 20 French cartoonists and intellectuals would be under police protection, no one would have believed it. The threshold of servitude has increased."
Five years after the terrorist murders at Charlie Hebdo, free speech is less free in France. "No one today would publish the cartoons of Muhammad", said Philippe Val, the former editor of Charlie Hebdo, recently.
"For the past five years, I've been going to the police station every month or so to file a complaint about death threats, not insults, death threats", says Marika Bret, a journalist at Charlie Hebdo today.
In Paris, five years after the murders at Charlie Hebdo, there was a big march to protest not terrorism, but "Islamophobia". "Voltaire fades before Muhammad, and the Enlightenment before the Submission", wrote the author Éric Zemmour. And Qatar still freely finances the construction of French mosques.
In 2017, two years after Jews were murdered in a terrorist attack at a kosher supermarket in Paris, a Jewish woman, Sarah Halimi, was tortured and murdered in her Paris apartment by her neighbor, Kobili Traoré, who was yelling "Allahu Akbar." A court of appeals recently ruled that Traoré, because he had smoked cannabis, was "not criminally responsible" for his actions. As France's Chief Rabbi Haim Korsia said, it is a "license to kill Jews".
"Anti-Semitism today is so blatant that it would be difficult to hide it without falling into ridicule," said the historian Georges Bensoussan. "What is taboo is the anti-Semites" -- meaning that today, in France, it is taboo to say that Islamism is the most important source of anti-Semitism.
One week after the terror attack on Charlie Hebdo, in which nine of its staff members were killed and another four wounded, the magazine published a cover depicting the Prophet of Islam with a tear on his cheek, and saying: "Tout est Pardonné" ("All is forgiven") . Five years later, all actually does seem to have been forgiven. Then, many proudly said, "I am Charlie". Most proved they were not.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

New Khamenei Speech Underlines the Importance of Popular Support for the Regime
Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/January 10/2020
Instead of focusing on Iran's missile retaliation or future threats, the Supreme Leader used his latest speech to extoll the virtues of public unity behind the regime’s revolutionary goals.
On January 8, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered his first public speech since the U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the subsequent Iranian missile strike on Iraqi bases housing American forces. As part of an address that touched on regional solidarity against the United States and other notable subjects, he spent considerable time claiming that Soleimani symbolized the Iranian people’s continued commitment to the revolution. In doing so, he indicated that popular support for the regime remains a crucial objective for Iran’s leaders, perhaps more so than issuing or acting on further military threats.
CASTING SOLEIMANI AS THE MODEL REVOLUTIONARY
Addressing a group of citizens from Qom—which he does every year on the anniversary of the city’s pre-revolutionary protests against the shah—Khamenei described the late Qods Force commander with a string of superlatives: “Martyr Soleimani was brave, wise, and competent in management...not only on the battlefield, but also in the political sphere...His words were influential, convincing, and above all, he was sincere; he used his bravery and wisdom as tools in the service of God, he was anything but a hypocrite.” Although the Supreme Leader acknowledged that Soleimani was “adventurous,” he argued that the commander was also “thoughtfully protective with regard to people around him, his soldiers and foreign colleagues.”
Khamenei went on to recognize Soleimani as a “revolutionary” who was strictly committed to religious rules: for example, “where using weapons was not permitted, he refrained from using them.” More broadly, he praised the commander for being “selflessly devoted to the revolution,” for “seeing revolutionary principle and practice as his redline,” and for remaining above party or factional affiliations. In this sense, it is important to keep in mind what Khamenei means when he calls someone a “revolutionary”—namely, he is praising the person for being blindly faithful to the Supreme Leader’s will and commands. In his view, those who identify themselves as revolutionaries without showing the proper devotion to him (i.e., God’s representative on earth) should be exposed as frauds.
Khamenei also praised Soleimani’s role in furthering the regime’s goals in the Middle East: “Today I bow to him for what he initiated and brought about for this country, even for the region. It is a great achievement. His job was miraculous.” Other portions of the speech expanded on this theme: “By helping the region’s people and securing their assistance, he succeeded in spoiling all of America’s illegitimate plans” in countries such as Iraq, Palestine, and Syria. In particular, Khamenei celebrated the impact Soleimani had on Lebanon: “Thanks to God, Hezbollah became stronger and stronger, and today the group is Lebanon’s eye and hand. The role of our dear martyr in this is distinguished and extraordinary.”
Yet the Supreme Leader’s main focus was domestic. In addition to praising Soleimani’s revolutionary credentials, he noted that the commander’s death was a “blessing” of sorts because it brought out the same qualities in the Iranian public: “Certain people have portrayed the revolution as dead in Iran...but his martyrdom proved that the revolution is alive. Have you seen what happened in Tehran? In other cities?” The latter questions referred to the spectacular funeral ceremonies held for Soleimani in recent days, some of which grew so heated that dozens of mourners were killed in stampedes. Khamenei then blamed the “enemy” for designating Soleimani as a terrorist: “Unfair Americans, lying Americans, driveling Americans, whose words are nothing but worthless...Iranian nation, punch them in the face!”
REACTION TO THE U.S. ATTACK
Portions of Khamenei’s speech discussed the nature and purpose of Iranian measures taken after Soleimani’s assassination. “Last night, we slapped them on their face,” he boasted, referring to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against American facilities in Iraq. In his view, however, the broader goal of ending “America’s corrupting presence” is paramount: “They brought war to this region, disputes, seditions, destructions...They insist on doing the same to beloved Iran and our republic too. This issue of ‘negotiating’ and ‘sitting at the table’ and so on is just a prelude to intervention.”
Yet unlike the bellicose rhetoric he issued in other recent remarks, today’s speech made no explicit threat against foreign governments—not just the United States, but also Iran’s regional rivals. In fact, he delicately suggested that despite all of the rancor between Arab monarchies and Tehran, he does not categorize any of these states as enemies: “We should know the enemy. I would assertively say: the enemy means America [and] the Zionist regime.” He included both government actors and private companies in this category, lumping them together as “the world’s looters and tyrants and the like.”
He then offered a more explicit combination of olive branch and threat: “We do not regard regional or outside powers who have sometimes made remarks against us as our enemy. They are not enemies as long as they do not serve our true enemy against us in practice.” Such rhetoric is likely intended to leave an ambivalent impression on other Middle Eastern leaders: on one hand, it reassures them that Tehran has no intention of destabilizing their countries or harming their interests; on the other hand, it warns them against helping the United States or Israel execute plans to harm Iran—a broad formulation that could cover everything from military operations to financial sanctions.
EMPHASIS ON DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY
Khamenei’s paean to the unique benefits of Soleimani’s life and death also served as a way to remind listeners about the supposedly powerful bond between the Islamic Republic and its people. Recalling the stormy history of the 1979 revolution and subsequent years, he declared that Iran was able to prevail against its enemies not due to military strength, but through “empty hands” and hearts filled with faith in God. Although Iran is militarily powerful today, he argued that the best way to keep foiling its enemies is for the people to rely on their faith and determination: “Making the people doubtful is what the enemy is after, and if this happens, it would affect Iran’s offensive and even defensive capability.”
As an example of his claim that the enemy is constantly working to undermine Iran through political and economic plots, he pointed to last November’s gasoline protests. “In a small but really malicious and wretched European country,” he said, “an American element along with a group of Iranian traitors and hirelings gathered to plot against the Islamic Republic, and their plans were implemented a few days later on the gasoline issue.” (The country he was insulting is probably the Czech Republic, which hosts the U.S.-funded outlet Radio Farda; as for American officials meeting with Iranian opposition figures, that is a matter of public record, though Khamenei tends to use such contacts as fuel for far-reaching conspiracy theories.)
In short, Khamenei has once again attributed the past forty years’ worth of Iranian “victories” to the spiritual strength of the ruling elite and the loyal ruled, while blaming all protests and anti-regime resentment on sinister actors abroad. At the same time, he sought to deliver a speech that would add to the theatrical effects of Soleimani’s funeral ceremonies while restoring the regime’s image as a popular state with no concern about a fatal domestic crisis. Finally, he aimed to show that the regime enjoys enough popular support not only to remain in power, but also to continue pursuing the regional policies that have provoked so much international discontent.
Such contortions are fascinating because they show that even in a deeply authoritarian state that has proven its willingness to crack down on dissent as violently as necessary, the Supreme Leader still feels a vital need to portray his regime as a popular one. This makes sense in practical terms because the government cannot rely indefinitely on the type of brutal coercion seen since November. Yet despite the pain he has experienced over Soleimani’s loss and the unnerving pressures of the gasoline crisis, Khamenei seems confident that there is little chance of another deep domestic crisis reemerging in the near future. In his view, Soleimani’s death will help prevent this, in part by further dividing the disorganized, leaderless opposition, and also by allowing the government to justify additional internal security measures now that the specter of war seems much more visible.
*Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other
David Pollock/The Washington Institute/January 10/2020
دايفيد بولوك/معهد واشنطن: أميركا والعراق ما زالا بحاجة لبعضهما البعض لثمانية أسباب
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A host of crucial multilateral interests are baked into the U.S. presence, from keeping the Islamic State down, to protecting vulnerable regional allies, to preventing Iran from taking Iraq's oil revenues.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani has brought the tensions in U.S.-Iraqi relations to a boil, with militia factions strong-arming a parliamentary resolution on American troop withdrawal and various European allies contemplating departures of their own. Before they sign the divorce papers, however, officials in Baghdad and Washington should consider the many reasons why staying together is best for both them and the Middle East.
TO SAVE THE VICTORY AGAINST THE ISLAMIC STATE
A continued U.S. military presence in Iraq, modest as it may be, is essential to ensure the enduring defeat of the Islamic State. Conversely, if Soleimani’s death leads to the withdrawal of U.S. troops involved in local operations against the group, it would constitute a major blow to the fight against terrorism. Even after the Islamic State lost the last vestige of its territorial caliphate in March 2019, it was still able to conduct 867 terrorist operations in Iraq alone during the remainder of the year. The quantity and severity of such attacks would surely rise in the absence of U.S. and allied military pressure. Ongoing operations against the group’s equally active vestiges in Syria would be fatally undermined as well. The UN estimates that the Islamic State still has up to $300 million in reserves to sustain its terrorist campaign, and Kurdish officials note that the group is now reorganized underground in Iraq with “better techniques and better tactics.”
All of this is precisely why ministers at the November 14 meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS pledged to keep supporting the Iraqi government in order to “secure an enduring defeat of the terrorist organization.” To fulfill that pledge, the United States must remain in Iraq; otherwise it risks repeating the mistakes of 2011, when premature withdrawal led to the rise of the Islamic State in the first place.
TO DENY SOLEIMANI A POSTHUMOUS VICTORY
There is a direct link between Soleimani’s death and his longstanding policy priority of forcing America out of Iraq. If the United States withdraws now, he will have achieved in death what he tried in vain to do in life. This would be much more than a symbolic and moral failure; it would be a major political defeat for Washington, and a victory for Iran. Conversely, if U.S. leaders remain steadfast in Iraq, they would underline Soleimani’s epic failure, further eroding Iran’s international stature while enhancing Washington’s own.
TO KEEP IRAQ FRIENDLY, AND BALANCE IRAN
Iraq suffers greatly from Iran’s interference, but the U.S.-Iraq relationship is demonstrably not a lost cause. Evidence for this abounds in the past few days alone: President Barham Salih, Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, and the Iraqi Foreign Ministry publicly denounced Iran’s ballistic missile strike on bases housing U.S. forces; fully half of Iraq’s parliament boycotted the January 5 vote to oust U.S. troops; President Salih issued a statement noting that “the United States is our ally. Iran is our neighbor”; and leaders of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government recommitted—publicly and privately— to cooperate with the United States.
If U.S. troops stay in Iraq, they would greatly reinforce America’s position there and help counter Iran’s malign influence throughout the region. But if they leave, Iraq would be at immediate risk of slipping back into the destructive isolation of the Saddam era, with even less ability to resist Iran’s predatory policies. Most Iraqis rightly dread that thought. The hundreds of thousands of anti-Iranian protestors who have taken to Iraq’s streets in recent months, especially in Shia areas, drive home this point. They would much prefer an Iraq that is sovereign, peaceful, pluralistic, and fully integrated into the international community. A continuing U.S. diplomatic and military presence would help bolster those prospects. As such, Washington can reasonably expect Iraq’s government to offer terms that make this presence useful to both parties.
TO PREVENT IRAN FROM EXPLOITING IRAQI OIL
Beyond its geostrategic and political value, Iraq is now one of the world’s top oil exporters, with huge reserves for the long term. If the U.S. presence remains intact, the American, Iraqi, and global economy would share in those benefits. If the United States leaves, however, Iran would effectively gain increasing control of vast energy and financial resources, diverting them from Iraqi development in order to evade sanctions and greatly assist its own hegemonic ambitions.
TO HELP ENSURE JORDAN’S SECURITY AND STABILITY
A U.S. departure would force Jordan to contend with a new set of security challenges. The kingdom’s military and intelligence resources, already stretched thin along the border with Syria, would face the extra onus of protecting the even longer and much more remote border with Iraq. Jordanian officials have long expressed grave concerns about the presence of Iran and its proxies in both neighboring countries. And unlike Israel, Amman’s ability to push back against that presence is severely limited.
More broadly, withdrawal would reinforce Jordan’s concerns about U.S. credibility and staying power, which first emerged in force during the Obama administration. Security relations with the United States and Israel would continue for lack of any better options, but political ties would fray. Coupled with Jordan’s tough economic prospects, such a development would threaten the stability and friendship of a key, long-term U.S. ally sandwiched directly between Israel and Iraq, with adverse effects on all parties.
TO ENABLE BURDEN-SHARING WITH GULF ALLIES
Almost all of the Gulf Cooperation Council states perceive U.S. forces in Iraq as the foundation for the American military units they host on their own soil, and as vital to their self-defense against Iran. Beyond just governments or elites, recent public opinion polls in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other GCC countries prove that dislike of Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Tehran-backed actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthis is widely shared across the Gulf. In recent years, GCC support for Iraq has been reluctant and parsimonious despite Washington’s arm-twisting. But after the latest decisive U.S. action against Iran in Iraq, there are better prospects of more generous help and more robust diplomatic relations.
Later this year, the GCC is expected to start supplying Iraq with electricity so that it will not be as dependent on Iranian supplies. In time, if the United States stays in the game, Iraq may even switch from threat to partner with other Arab allies in the region. If America withdraws, however, some governments and their publics would view Iraq as even more of an Iranian satellite, both because of its Shia majority and because the key counterbalance would be gone. Their readiness to rely on U.S. guarantees, already in some doubt, would waver still more. All of this would increase pressure on the GCC to appease Iran, essentially snatching an American defeat from the jaws of victory.
TO LIMIT ISRAELI INVOLVEMENT
Unlike Iraq’s immediate neighbors, Israel is not directly tied to recent events in that country. Nevertheless, U.S. withdrawal would create additional threats to Israeli security. Both Iran and the Islamic State would have a freer hand to operate inside Iraq, likely spreading across the porous border into Syria and ultimately to Israel’s own frontiers. American credibility would also suffer a new setback.
As a result, Israel might feel obliged to increase its forays against terrorists and Iranian proxies inside Iraq, which would strain its capabilities, further unsettle the fragile situation in Iraq, and risk greater retaliation. The aggravated threat to Jordan, with which Israel shares a long border and a peace treaty, would be of serious concern as well.
TO GET MORE SUPPORT FROM EUROPEAN ALLIES
U.S. withdrawal would drastically limit the ability of European forces to continue training Iraq’s counterterrorism forces. Germany and Canada, for instance, have already announced they are removing part of their small contingents due to current insecurity, though France is planning to remain.
In contrast, if the United States upped its game in Iraq—not just militarily but also politically and economically—then burden-sharing with allies would likely be enhanced. Moreover, the broader goal of the Western military presence in Iraq is to tackle some of the issues that laid the groundwork for the Islamic State’s emergence: namely, insecurity, Sunni marginalization, and absence of economic development. This helps explain why European capitals have reacted so cautiously to Soleimani’s assassination, pointing out his initial responsibility for the escalation while also calling on all parties to de-escalate going forward.
*David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of Project Fikra. He would like to thank several of his Institute colleagues for contributing to this PolicyWatch, including Ghaith al-Omari, Oula Alrifai, Elana DeLozier, Sarah Feuer, Simon Henderson, Barbara Leaf, Matthew Levitt, Charles Thepaut, and Aaron Zelin.

Catherine W Jude/Amazing post just to add my thoughts to it...
Forcing US Troops from Iraq Will be a Victory for ISIS, Iran
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/January 09/2020
كوك كوغلن/معهد كايتستون: اجبار اميركا على سجب جيشها من العراق سيكون انتصار لإيران وداعش
Amazing post just to add my thoughts to it...
Catherine W Jude/January 10/2020

America and commander in chief President Donald J Trump (being a transparent decent true Christian with nationhood patriotism) will leave the Middle East at the right time when it suits them and when their allies and recipients of their help and generosity are sound and capable of constructing and building their own nations. No threat, coercion or extortion from her enemies within and without will ever stay her corse of action. The time of using a foreign policy of America protecting and nation building for others is over.
For any nation to protect their borders be proud of their heritage and values needs to be the ones who do it themselves for it work the way they want it to work and be long lasting. Obama and previous American presidents as far back as Jimmy Carter attempted to be the police and over generous nation builder to place democracies so as to stabilize the Middle East they hoped and secure a reliable source of supply for petrol which they where dependent on.
Not only did they fail in this but the Middle East blamed them of totalitarian colonialism and oppression and not even thanking them for the huge resources man power soldiers and investments that cost Americans dearly and embroiled them into hell holes and ongoing ruinous warfare in both men’s lives and finances leaving them in trillions of debt. If that wasn’t enough bad trade deals and complicated treacherous alliances of fake friendships and allies left America reeling and infested with numerous parasites and huge costly obligations such as protecting or maintaining other nations heritage.
Trump is extricating America step by step from all this mess and is making America only responsible for fixed term of help when requested, no nation building, no maintenance and protecting others heritage and utilizing embassies and CIA bases as the deterrent for any amoral nasty totalitarian neighboring tyrants to feel that they can bulldoze these nations. If the circumstances necessitates permanent bases with military troops due to a long term enemy such as in the case of Israel and South Korea, the only difference is that now these host countries are responsible for the majority of the costs of these American troops (paying for their defense) and not America to have to pay the full brunt of all the costs as well as risk her soldiers lives.
Usually these troops would be highly specialized and be training and getting the host countries military up to par so that they will gradually and successfully take over the task allowing the Americans to be confident that they can leave in place trainers, advisors and strategists and not just their troops. This method is a win win situation as it boosts and makes the host nations reach a high standard of military defense and be independent and self sufficient.
Welcome to the new world of patriotic nationhood...goodbye domineering manipulative globalization.
P.S. on the article commentary about a victory for ISIS where is it a victory when unman drones become the new army recruits especially for desert warfare (need no water or food) as the main weapon strategy to efficiently blast ISIS or any insurgents wanting to fill non existent vacuums.

La métonymie d’un crash
Charles Elias Chartouni/January 10/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني/سقوط الطائرة الأوكرانية: قراءة في المدلولات المستترة
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La tragédie de l’avion ukrainien abattu à Téhéran par l’armée iranienne ne fait qu’entériner l’hypothèse et les réalités d’un État en mal de repères, et qui n’a d’autres moyens d’exorciser ses démons que par la violence et sans autre forme de procès. S’arc-boutant sur ses dénis habituels, l’État Iranian élimine, d’ores et déjà, l’hypothèse du missile qui a détruit l’avion contre le faisceau d’évidence qui a été fourni par plusieurs sources. Rien de nouveau, on est là devant un mode de comportement qui n’a jamais démenti et qui attribue tous les errements et les malheurs de ce pays, qui avance de manière discontinue de crise en crise, à un complot qui vise son intégrité imaginaire.
L’externalisation des responsabilités et la contamination de l’occident ( غرب زادكي ) sont les seuls clefs qui expliquent cette boucle infernale de crises répétées qui n’ont rien épargné, la faillite de gouvernance ( crises financière, économique et sociale, catastrophes écologiques -désertification rampante, inondations, éboulement de terrains, sécheresse et étiage des eaux, prolifération des bidonvilles gigantesques- corruption diffuse, pauvreté généralisée, pathologies sociales aggravées- une population de 4000000 de drogués en majorité sans soins ou reconnaissance de l’épidémie, délinquances sociales,...), et la dynamique soutenue des conflits régionaux induits par une politique de déstabilisation régionale, aux contours imprécis, qui a contribué à l’éclatement du système inter-étatique, à l’extension des vides stratégiques dans une région qui a du mal à se reconstituer sur la base d’une texture étatique, de réformes visant à introduire les notions d’État de droit, de consociativité, de recomposition fédérée de la gouvernance, des droits fondamentaux, du pouvoir constitutionnel et des politiques conjuguées du développement intégré.
À chaque fois que je soulève le problème sous l’angle des réformes structurelles dont a besoin le monde arabo-musulman, je suis débouté par le contre-argumentaire de l’inopportunité du débat et la priorité des politiques de puissance, qui n’est autre que celui des luttes à morts qui opposent les oligarques, les segmentarités diffuses d’un ordre social opérant à vide et en l’absence de tout consensus normatif, les désarticulations d’un système régional sans aucune gravité, et la prévalence de la violence comme mode privilégié de règlement des conflits. La fureur suscitée par l’assassinat du général Suleimani se structure en dehors de tout rapport de causalité qui le relie à la dynamique de subversion et de criminalité politique induite par les vagues successives de l’impérialisme iranien impulsées par la révolution islamiste de 1979. Le jeu de la victimisation et de la décontextualisation des enjeux, et les complicités qu’elle suscite dans les milieux de la gauche altermondialiste, loin de contribuer à la dissipation des malentendus multiples dont se nourrissent ces conflits, ne font que les entretenir et envenimer au prix des habitus consolidés que sont le déni, le mensonge délibéré, la volonté de domination et leurs doubles sur le plan opérationnel.
La stratégie du pouvoir iranien se nourrit des hantises obsidionales légitimes des iraniens préoccupés par les visées de l’impérialisme sunnite environnant et ses mouvances terroristes, et cherche à les cultiver en se saisissant de n’importe quel événement qui puisse les remettre au devant de la scène politique, alors que la gouvernance désastreuse ne fait que creuser la crise de légitimité d’un pouvoir qui se joue des contradictions pour écarter sa fin inéluctable. Le pouvoir va se saisir de l’épisode Suleimani pour créer un nouvel intermède, où les iraniens vivraient d’un élan nationaliste creux, où les problèmes réels se font déplacer au profit de l’hystérie anti-américaine, alors que cette trame conflictuelle est le produit de la politique de subversion qui instrumentalise le nihilisme au profit de la stratégie de survie d’une révolution vide de tout sens, aux mythes creux qui ne renvoient à rien, et aux hasards d’une politique de déstabilisation qui n’a débouché sur aucun projet de construction alternatif, qui viendrait à bout des vides rampants d’une région désaxée et aux béances normatives patentes.
Quid après la vengeance et les cycles d’une violence absolutiste qui ne donne aucun lieu à des alternatives discursives, où la parole donnerait lieu à des ouvertures diplomatiques qui mettraient fin au mimétisme des injustices infligées et subies, et aux cycles infernaux des conflits ouverts que la carrière de Suleimani a remarquablement illustrés. J’espère que l’intermède de cette supercherie indéfiniment répétée s’avère de courte durée, et que l’opposition iranienne puisse mettre fin à cet état d’exception qui se nourrit des dynamiques conflictuelles qui sont les gages de la survie du régime et de l’asservissement du peuple iranien otage d’une dystopie aussi psychotique que criminelle, où la ligne de démarcation entre le réel et le délire n’a pas de bornes, et n’a d’autre prix que la souffrance qu’il éprouve au fil d’un temps creux qui ne cesse de se prolonger.

Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 10/2020
جوناسن سبير: الضربة الإيرانية على القاعدة الأميركية في العراق حققت الأهداف المرجوة منها
Behind the Lines: A large amount of noise and smoke
Following the US killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and a number of other IRGC-related figures on January 3, this author and other analysts wrote that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faced a difficult dilemma.
The attacks on Ain al-Asad and Erbil that took place between 1:45 and 2:45 on the morning of January 8 indicate that Khamenei has made his choice in regards to this dilemma.
The choice is to de-escalate and draw a line under the episode of the killing of Soleimani.
This will exact a certain price in terms of Iran’s standing and credibility, but it is a price that the supreme leader evidently considers worth paying, given the alternative.
What considerations underlay this apparent decision?
The dilemma facing Khamenei was as follows: The killing of Soleimani was a humiliating blow against a regime whose primary self-defined enemy is the United States. To maintain its role as the center of the self-styled “axis of resistance,” it was incumbent upon Iran to take revenge for the attack.
But this imperative presented a problem. Iran is exponentially weaker than the US in terms of capacities. An act of vengeance that would be satisfactory from the point of view of Iran’s being seen to have settled the account with the US over the killing of Soleimani could only be one that included the killing of a US figure of similar prominence to the slain Quds Force commander, or, failing that, a considerable number of more junior personnel.
Iran had and has both assets and an ample “target bank” in the local area for the carrying out of such an attack. In terms of assets, largely thanks to the career of the late General Soleimani, around 200,000 militia personnel are available to the supreme leader in the land space between the Iraq-Iran border and the Mediterranean Sea, containing the nominal states of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. These forces have accurate missiles available to them, and good intelligence coverage across the areas in question.
In terms of potential targets, there are around 5,200 US military personnel in Iraq, and somewhere just under one thousand in Syria. They are present within clearly identifiable geographical areas and, in the case of Iraq, at large, easily located bases.
Thus, finding Americans and killing them in either Iraq or Syria did not and does not present a problem insurmountable to the Iranian side, given its known capabilities.
The problem was not military or logistical in nature. It was political and strategic. An attack of sufficient magnitude to settle the account over Soleimani would almost certainly be one that would invite further, wider American retribution, and begin the descent to a direct clash between the US and Iran, which Iran could not possibly win, and which could potentially mean the destruction of much that Iran has gained in the region over the last decade. Iran thus had to choose between facing destruction or accepting a somewhat humiliating outcome.
A statement from the Iraqi Army, broadcast on Al Jazeera, reported that a total of 22 missiles were launched, 17 on Ain al-Asad and five on the Erbil facility. Initial analysis and reporting suggested that Fateh-313 ballistic missiles and longer-range, liquid fuel Qiam ballistic missiles were used in the attack.
The result of the attacks – no US casualties and, according to the Iraqi military, no Iraqi casualties either.
The ordnance which Iran has admitted using in the attack is certainly deadly. Iranian ballistic missiles were first fired on Iraqi soil on September 7, 2018, when the Iranians targeted facilities of two Iranian Kurdish opposition parties located in northern Iraq. The missiles, precisely aimed and based on apparent prior intelligence, killed at least 12 people and wounded many more.
The Iranian Kurdish facilities, however, lacked both the prior-warning radar capacities and the underground shelters available to US and Iraqi personnel in the Ain al-Asad and Erbil facilities. As a result of these, US personnel were forewarned of the attacks and able to take appropriate safety measures.
The possession by the US of radar, shelters and air defense systems at Ain al-Asad and other facilities is not a closely guarded American military secret. The Iranians were surely aware of this.
That is, the attacks of January 8 appear to have been formulated and carried out in order to produce precisely the result that they did – namely, a large amount of noise and smoke, so as to enable Tehran to claim that it had taken retribution for the death of Soleimani. And no US casualties, so that Iran could avoid the escalation that these would have made inevitable.
Iranian television, it is worth noting, claimed that over 80 “American terrorists” were killed in the Iranian strike, and much equipment damaged. Given that much of the Iranian population is monolingual and its access to the Internet is limited, it may be concluded that such claims are an additional face-saving device intended for internal consumption.
AS OF now, it appears that the Iranian sound and fury over the skies of Iraq on January 8 look set to signify the conclusion of the round of hostilities that began with the killing of a US contractor by the Iran-linked Ktaeb Hezbollah militia on December 27. This act provoked a US attack on Ktaeb which killed 25 of its fighters. The Iranians then launched the violent protests against the US Embassy in Baghdad. The US upped the ante at that point with the killings of Soleimani, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and the others. The latest Iranian response indicates that Iran wants an end to this round.
Of course, Iranian efforts to expel the US from Iraq will continue. The Iranian calculus at this point may well have included the assumption that the current US administration wants out of the Middle East, and therefore should not be provoked into staying.
Iranian propaganda makes much of the notion that the Iranian project is slow and systematic and at a level of sophistication that makes it invulnerable to the attacks of its enemies. That remains to be seen. But the latest round of hostilities indicates that those who helm the Iranian bid for regional hegemony are aware of their drastic limitations in the military arena, are not suicidal, and are capable of formulating and implementing policy in line with the prevailing power realities.

Is this the end of US passivity in the face of Iranian terrorism?
Saeed Ghasseminejad/Al Arabiya/January 10/2020
Washington has spent more than two decades fighting a global war against extremists, but has been remarkably passive in response to terrorist attacks conducted by Iran’s theocratic regime and its network of Shia proxy forces. But that may all have changed last week, when US President Donald Trump ordered the airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC - Quds Force and the butcher of Syria.
Soleimani left this world together with Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, his Iraqi friend and fellow terrorist, along with six other Quds Force and Iraqi militia personnel. Tehran vowed a harsh revenge for the death of its most dangerous general; so far, it has only fired a few missiles at US military targets in Iraq, apparently without causing any American casualties. In contrast, tens of Iranians died in a stampede during Soleimani’s funeral ceremonies. Once again, Iranians paid the price for the regime’s incompetence and extremism.
By targeting Soleimani and Mohandes, the United States imposed a severe cost on Tehran for a series of provocations that lasted throughout 2019 and culminated in a rocket attack that killed a US citizen serving in Iraq as a contractor. Tehran cannot easily replace Soleimani, because over the last two decades he built the Quds Force around himself. The regime created a cult of personality around Soleimani, who had deep personal connections to Shia militia leaders like Mohandes.
Esmail Ghaani, the new leader of the Quds Force, does not benefit from the same charisma and personal touch. Ghaani’s recent assignments have focused on Iran’s eastern border with Afghanistan and Pakistan; his leadership may result in a more pronounced role for the Afghan and Pakistani Shia militias under Quds Force control, known as the Fatemiyoun Division and Zeynabioun Brigade. The Quds Force will not die with Soleimani, but make no mistake: it will not be as effective as it was under him, at least not soon.
The broader strategic question arising from Soleimani’s death is whether it signals the end of Washington’s passivity – sometimes described as strategic patience – in the face of Iranian and Iranian-backed terrorism.
For four decades, Washington has shown a peculiar reluctance to target the leaders of Shia terrorist movements. This timidity led to the rapid spread of Tehran’s brand of revolutionary Shiism across the region, from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Over the years, the Islamic Republic and its proxies have killed hundreds of Americans across the globe, but Washington rarely hit them back.When Imad Mughniyeh masterminded the terror attacks against US peacekeepers and the US embassy in Lebanon in 1983, the Reagan administration had the navy fire on targets near Beirut, but soon withdrew its forces. Twenty-five years would pass before Israel neutralized Mughniyeh. Likewise, the Clinton administration refused to hold Tehran responsible for the 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia where 19 American servicemen died. Despite its tough talks, the George W. Bush administration persistently declined to retaliate against the Quds Force even though it trained, funded, equipped and guided the Iraqi terrorist groups responsible for the death of hundreds of American soldiers.
For four decades, the message that Shia terrorist movements under Tehran’s control have received from the United States has been a message of appeasement. Thus, the operation to eliminate Soleimani may represent a historic U-turn by the United States.
What no one knows, except perhaps President Trump, is whether Soleimani’s death resulted from a singular action or if it is part of a larger plan to address the threat of Iranian-backed terrorism. Tehran has benefited immensely from Washington’s refusal to treat Shia terrorists the same way it has been treating their Sunni counterparts, especially since the attacks of September 11, 2001. The United States has hunted and put down the latter, while the former have flourished to the point where they control five capitals in the region, including those of four Arab countries.
If the US now has the will to confront the extremist regime in Iran, a new era may begin, in which Tehran’s agents no longer enjoy an invisible shield that protects them from the force that may contain and weaken the Shia terrorist movements that have ravaged the Middle East for far too long.

Who is more powerful? Iran learns the hard way

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/January 10/2020
In a region where things are often predictable, recent events in the Middle East have been highly unusual and will have far-reaching consequences.
The assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force and overseer of Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts, is America’s first major confrontation with Tehran.
Iran and its leadership have been severely damaged as a result of their mistaken reading of the situation, and the resolve of the US leadership. Wicked regimes in the region, including Iran, are in the habit of despising American presidents and underestimating Washington’s power. Over the years, this has resulted in the elimination of Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.
Most of the regimes in the region respect only force. They fear Russia, therefore, and avoid messing with Moscow or its interests. For example, when Moscow issued threats after Iran arrested a Russian journalist accused of spying, she was released within days. Meanwhile, American and European citizens have been locked up in Iranian jails for years, and the regime in Tehran uses them to apply pressure and as bargaining chips.
Respect and morals may not be priorities in the field of international relations, but the image projected by states is paramount. Tehran has gone too far in its dealings with global states, including Washington, after threatening their interests for decades.
Until now, US presidents avoided using their military capabilities against Iran directly, instead only pursuing organizations affiliated with Tehran. The Iranian leadership treated President Donald Trump like his predecessors, and then was dismayed when he applied the harshest economic sanctions in the history of the region. Then, after Iran dared to kill an American in Iraqi Kurdistan and orchestrated the siege of the US Embassy in Baghdad, Tehran paid the highest price. Trump ordered the killing of Iran’s most important military leader, someone who believed he was shielded and untouchable.
The Iranian leaders now know very well that Trump is different from previous US presidents
This is why there were no casualties in the subsequent retaliatory Iranian missile attacks that targeted American bases — Tehran feared the potential US response to further bloodshed.
The Iranian leaders now know very well that Trump is different from previous US presidents. He has the will and the boldness and will not hesitate to eliminate Iran’s military forces if they dare to launch any substantial attacks. Four decades of military and industrial power could be destroyed by Trump in a matter of days. If that happened, Iran would be unable to protect its territory or its regime. We all know that Iran respects only power, which is why Washington’s display of limitless force, without consideration of any “red lines” that cannot be crossed, is the perfect political act that might change the situation in the region for the better.Soleimani controlled the activities of Iran and its affiliates in a large part of the region, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza, and threatened the sovereignty of other governments.
Those who accuse Trump of bullying and arrogance forget that the Iranian regime has been guilty of bullying and arrogance for four decades. Now, however, it has discovered that someone capable of being more arrogant and a bigger bully has taken up residence in the White House.After taking office, Trump extended a hand to the Iranian government and invited it to negotiate. The regime in Tehran viewed this as an act of weakness and decided to twist Trump’s arm by killing Americans and burning an embassy. The result has been tears and misery in Tehran. Trump has explicitly warned that he is prepared to respond to aggression by destroying Iran’s military capabilities.
Now, everyone realizes he is capable of doing that without flinching — and would no doubt then announce Iran’s destruction in one of his tweets.Tehran failed to learn from the experience of other nations. Even a major power such as China agreed to return to negotiations with the US after Trump rejected its trade agreement. Mexico, Canada and even NATO member states have followed suit. The president of Turkey swallowed his pride and traveled to Washington seeking to resolve his nation’s problems with the US.
The outcome of this showdown between the US and Iran will be positive. After the painful strikes the supreme leader’s regime has endured, the door will open to diplomacy, set within a framework of reasonable expectations for everyone in the region, including Iran.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.Twitter: @aalrashed

Dumbest man in Iran’: Thomas Friedman mocks Qassem Soleimani
Caitlin Yilek/The Washington Examinar/January 10/2020
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman asserted Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani showed ineptitude in his efforts to prop up Iran.
Friedman mocked the military leader, who was killed Thursday in a U.S. drone strike, as a “military genius” who drove his country into the ground as he sought to broaden Iran’s power in the Middle East.
“One day they may name a street after President Trump in Tehran. Why? Because Trump just ordered the assassination of possibly the dumbest man in Iran and the most overrated strategist in the Middle East,” Friedman wrote of Soleimani.
Friedman said the leader of the Quds Force miscalculated after the Iran nuclear deal when he and Iran’s supreme leader sought control through their proxies of several cities in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. U.S. allies urged the Trump administration to respond to Iran’s actions, and the deal, which Friedman referred to as a “great deal” for Iran, was eventually revoked by Trump.
The deal agreed to by the Obama administration and Iran in 2015 lifted sanctions on the country and helped grow its economy. When the Trump administration reinforced the sanctions, Iran raised its gas prices, prompting massive protests and brutal crackdowns, “further weakening the legitimacy of the regime,” Friedman wrote. “Today’s Iran is the heir to a great civilization and the home of an enormously talented people and significant culture. Wherever Iranians go in the world today, they thrive as scientists, doctors, artists, writers and filmmakers — except in the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose most famous exports are suicide bombing, cyberterrorism and proxy militia leaders. The very fact that Suleimani was probably the most famous Iranian in the region speaks to the utter emptiness of this regime, and how it has wasted the lives of two generations of Iranians by looking for dignity in all the wrong places and in all the wrong ways,” the columnist wrote. Soleimani’s proxies prevented any of the countries they inhabited from developing infrastructure such as schools, roads, and electricity, Friedman said, leading Soleimani’s “kingmakers” to be hated in the region “even more so than Trump’s America.”
Friedman also said that when Soleimani confronted Israel, he was unprepared for the strength of Israeli forces, and even though he helped fight the Islamic State, he was responsible for its rise by Iran’s overreach in Iraq.

Wisdom required if US is to avoid conflict with Iran

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/January 10/2020
Following Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s vow to inflict “severe retaliation” on Qassem Soleimani’s killers, US President Donald Trump raised the stakes by promising to hit 52 targets, including cultural sites, inside the country — one for each of the American hostages taken by Iran in the wake of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Tehran retaliated by hitting two airbases that host US troops, with Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif then stating that the retaliation was complete. Trump announced that “all is well” and both parties claimed they had scored points.
Trump said in a speech on Thursday that Iran seemed to be “standing down,” while Khamenei said that the missile strike was a “slap in the face” for the US. Observers seemed relieved as both sides indirectly expressed a desire to de-escalate, at least for now. However, de-escalation needs to be sustained by a follow-through strategy so that it does not fall into a conflict trap that will destroy the region.
It would be very destructive if the US strategy was drafted in a simplistic manner, such as “if the Iranians hit, we hit back harder.” Such a strategy could lead to an endless war of attrition. American policymakers seem to bank on the fact that their Iranian counterparts are logical, and that they believe entering into a confrontation with the US might be suicidal. Trump tweeted: “If Iran attacks an American base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way... and without hesitation,” threatening the full use of the might of the American military.
However, US policymakers should not assume that the Iranians follow the same logic as them, because they have different conditions and a different ideological background. Iran’s economy is in dismal shape because of the US sanctions. People are living under very dire conditions. The country has reached rock bottom; therefore there is nothing more for the regime to lose and an external confrontation might rally the people internally. In Iran, even though the people are not fond of the regime, they don’t want the country to turn into Iraq. The Iranian leadership has been very clever to promote this idea to the people: No matter how harsh the regime might be and how difficult the situation is, it is still better than if the US invaded Iran the same way it invaded Iraq and removed Saddam Hussein from power.
The other dimension the US should understand is the ideological one. The Islamic Republic is a political regime based on an ideology. Former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, when asked about the economy, used to answer that “we did not make a revolution to slash the price of watermelon.” This is why, despite the economic incentive provided by the nuclear deal, Iran did not change its narrative or its course of action.
On the contrary, in order to show the Iranian people that it had not given up on its ideology, the concessions made on the nuclear front were compensated for by an increase in the activities of its regional proxies.
Iran’s leaders could confront and retaliate as brutally as you can imagine. We have to remember the Iran-Iraq War and the way the Iranians used waves of child soldiers to clear minefields prepared by their more sophisticated Iraqi counterparts. The Iranians would rather send all their fighters to die than capitulate in humiliation.
Bearing these two elements in mind, it is unlikely that Iran will be deterred by the US’ show of force or that it will be intimidated. In fact, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, made it clear that the killing of Soleimani will not make Iran change its course. He vowed to avenge Soleimani by getting US forces out of the region, despite Zarif’s claim that the retaliation is over.
In this setup, it is important for the US to have an intelligent and comprehensive strategy. The first fold of this should be preventative. The strategy should not be forecasting possible retaliation scenarios and drafting a counter-retaliation. The focus should be on how to contain and intercept possible retaliation scenarios. Nasrallah, in his speech, promised to hit back against the American military in the region. He promised to target military bases, battleships and personnel. In this respect, the US, along with its allies, should increase security measures, especially in the Gulf.
US policymakers should not assume that the Iranians follow the same logic as them.
Monitoring the communication networks of the Iranian regime is a requirement. The US needs to prevent it from mobilizing transnationally through deployments at strategic points. In parallel, diplomacy also needs to be activated. The demands that the US put forward to remove its sanctions — including asking Iran to dismantle its regional militia and give up on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — are a nonstarter. Here, international diplomacy, particularly the Japanese angle, needs to be reactivated. Japan is not a Western country, nor does it have a colonial past in the region.
Ultimately, this situation needs a delicate balance and wisdom to prevent the region from falling into a bloody conflict trap.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Putin deserves ‘Great Power Strategist of the Year’ accolade
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/January 10/2020
Every year, as an entertaining and useful thought experiment, my firm internally awards a “Great Power Strategist of the Year” prize; sort of a mini-Oscars for the geopolitically-minded. It is a disarming way to look at which great power statesman has most improved their country’s geopolitical position by any means (moral or otherwise) over the past 12 months. This year, perpetually under-rated Russian President Vladimir Putin won the award, almost unanimously.
Before getting into the strategic details of why Putin did so well, let’s take a closer look at what is so often unsaid and irretrievably clear about Russia: It is surely a country in structural decline. Gone are the days of great power status; the Kremlin (by its own acknowledgment) is merely a regional power now, not playing in the same league as either the US or a rising China.
The country has a gross domestic product (GDP) only the size of the state of Texas. Nor is the economy particularly dynamic — Russian GDP is expected to have increased only 1 percent in 2019. Despite talking for a decade about diversifying its one-crop economy, Russian economic power remains wholly dependent on the spot price of oil and natural gas.
As a whole, Russia remains an endemically corrupt place, as demographically stalled as it is riven by nationalist tensions on its gigantic periphery. Even a declining EU has 10 times the economic strength of the place and three times its population. Russian military spending is now only a tenth of that of the US. These facts make it clear that Russia is not now, nor will it be in the future, a country once again vying to become the dominant power in the world.
And yet, if all that is true, what is also a fact is that Putin plays the poor cards he has been dealt geostrategically so very well. Unlike a fractured Europe, Putin can act decisively and quickly, as he reigns more like a Romanov czar than a modern European head of government.
Beyond this, the Russian president’s approval rating, even after being in charge for all these years, remains an eye-popping 61 percent as of December 2019 — a level most Western leaders can only dream about. This peculiar mix of semi-autocratic power and personal popularity means Putin need have no fear of putting his troops in harm’s way.
In a general sense, Putin is just your standard, garden-variety Gaullist, determined above all to restore Russian national pride and global status after a perceived period of humiliation following Moscow’s defeat in the Cold War. There is a reason he has a giant picture of Peter the Great in his personal study; in line with centuries of Russian political culture, the president sees himself as the tough, reformist “good czar,” restoring order and dignity to his country after one of its disastrous bouts of chaos under the weak previous leader, the shambolic Boris Yeltsin.
A quick tour of the world illustrates the Russian president’s tactical success. Following their victory in Syria (even before the Qassem Soleimani assassination), Russia and fellow anti-establishment Iran have become ever firmer allies. Putin has utterly divided Europe, luring Turkey away from its traditional Kemalist, pro-Western stance, while — through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — it has made increasingly pacifist Germany its energy mendicant. Even Emmanuel Macron’s France has called for Europe to turn the page on the heretofore united anti-Western front against the Kremlin.
While there are real limits to the burgeoning Sino-Russian alliance (primarily centered on the fact that a nationalistic Putin loathes playing the junior role to Beijing, as he would have to in a deeper entente), there is also little doubt Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin have grown ever closer.
Moscow continues to cause mischief even in America’s backyard. The Kremlin has somehow managed to just about prop up the thuggish and incompetent Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, despite US maneuverings to the contrary. Further, with America mired in domestic (impeachment) and foreign (Iran and North Korea) crises, the Kremlin now has great latitude to build on these significant geostrategic accomplishments.
The president sees himself as the tough, reformist ‘good czar,’ restoring order and dignity to his country.
However, as was true for Charles de Gaulle, it is important not to make too much of what Putin has concretely achieved. Bashar Assad’s Syria is presently the only Middle Eastern country where Russia has bases (though it is working hard to secure influence in Libya).
As was true earlier with Ukraine, Syria matters strategically to Russia ever so much more than to the West, precisely because these two shattered countries are about all that remains of the Kremlin’s former global posture. Putin has run rings tactically around the West in both cases, but never forget that the Kremlin’s desperation in coming to its allies’ rescue in Ukraine and Syria belies a Moscow acutely aware that it is scrambling to remain relevant.
Yet, for all that, Putin wins our award as he has shored up Russia’s pretensions to remaining a great power — if no longer a superpower — despite daunting odds.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Turkey treads a fine line amid US-Iran tensions

Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/January 10/2020
It has recently become even harder to predict the future of this region than ever before. The Middle East has experienced several wars, revolutions, counter-revolutions, coups, crises and, of course, assassinations. The region, as Carl Brown argues, is a uniquely “penetrated system,” which is open to the interference of several powers. This did not change, and was even further increased, with the Arab uprisings, which brought with them increased sectarianism, proxy wars and conflicts in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq.
It is not surprising that the eruption of any crisis in the Middle East directly or indirectly adversely affects the other regional countries. With the assassination of Iran’s top commander, Qassem Soleimani — a man responsible for the deaths of many innocent people — the entire region has entered a new, dangerous phase. For many, it is regarded as a watershed in the Middle East. Experts, diplomats and journalists hold the opinion that this attack will change the game in the region for the worse and that tensions will only further escalate. While each country weighs the development according to their regional goals, it is significant to read what the attack means for Turkey, the region’s only NATO member and a neighbor of Iran.
In the early hours of Jan. 3, when the attack on Soleimani took place, Ankara received the news with concern. Until late on the same day, it did not take any official position regarding the strike, instead remaining calm and silent. This silence was not only a clear indication that Ankara was aware of how the strike poses a risk to the region, but also that it was caught unprepared and was uncertain of how to make the best of the situation.
The first official statement came from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its reaction was cautious and concerned, with suggestions that the tools of diplomacy should be implemented with regards to the solution of the crisis. In this context, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, while Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke to his Iranian and American colleagues, Mohammed Javad Zarif and Mike Pompeo, respectively, over the weekend. In the phone call between Erdogan and Rouhani, the latter asked for the support of Turkey, which had already been critical of US President Donald Trump’s handling of the Middle East file.
In Washington, people were divided over the attack, while in Iran they were united and in Turkey people were in limbo, some considering Soleimani to be a martyr while others thought he was the mastermind of all conflicts in the region. Whatever the public reaction, it is clear Turkey does not want to approach the incident from an ideological point of view, instead embracing a neutral and realpolitik approach for many reasons.
First and foremost, Turkey wanted to make its neutral, but also concerned, stance apparent by describing the strike as an assassination, rather than an act of self-defense, as American officials argued. In this regard, reading between the lines, the Foreign Ministry’s statement was making this approach clear.
Secondly, all of these incidents happening on Iraqi soil — already a war-torn and politically fragile country — increases Turkey’s security concerns, since Ankara wants to avoid further escalation on its doorstep. Iraq’s stability is of great significance for Turkey and others in the region, and that is why any effort that could possibly de-escalate the tension should be promoted, according to Ankara. Rather than taking sides in this crisis, Turkey should use its existing channels with both parties to defuse the tension.
In Washington, people were divided over the attack, while in Iran they were united and in Turkey people were in limbo.
Thirdly, while Turkey is dealing with the disquieting consequences of the instability that has raged through Syria for many years, new tensions erupting in neighboring Iraq and Iran is a worrying scenario for Ankara. The consequences of such crises need careful evaluation.
Thus, Ankara is trying to tread a fine line over the US-Iran tensions. While the former is a NATO ally with whom it shares a special partnership, the latter is a significant regional country with whom it continues to cooperate on the regional crises, such as the Astana peace process for Syria. In this regard, what happens in the diplomatic traffic between Ankara, Baghdad, Tehran and Washington is noteworthy. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey for a planned trip and, needless to say, US-Iran tensions were on the agenda. The day after, Cavusoglu paid a visit to Baghdad, where he met with top Iraqi officials to discuss the latest alarming developments. From the US side, Special Representative for Syria James Jeffrey announced he would travel to Turkey and Saudi Arabia to discuss regional issues.
While top figures in both the US and Iran continued to escalate the fire with their harsh and threatening statements on Twitter, it seems like the region’s leaders have rolled up their sleeves to de-escalate the tensions through diplomatic channels. As the Turkish proverb says, “an ember burns where it falls,” thus this fire poses a risk to all the countries in the region.
Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz