LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 07.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
John the Baptis Baptizes Jesus at The
Jordan River
Luke 03/15-22/15 The people were waiting expectantly and were all
wondering in their hearts if John might possibly be the Messiah. John answered
them all, “I baptize you with water. But one who is more powerful than I will
come, the straps of whose sandals I am not worthy to untie. He will baptize you
with the Holy Spirit and fire. His winnowing fork is in his hand to clear his
threshing floor and to gather the wheat into his barn, but he will burn up the
chaff with unquenchable fire.” And with many other words John exhorted the
people and proclaimed the good news to them. But when John rebuked Herod the
tetrarch because of his marriage to Herodias, his brother’s wife, and all the
other evil things he had done, Herod added this to them all: He locked John up
in prison. When all the people were being baptized, Jesus was baptized too. And
as he was praying, heaven was opened and the Holy Spirit descended on him in
bodily form like a dove. And a voice came from heaven: “You are my Son, whom I
love; with you I am well pleased.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on January 06-07/2020
Lebanon's TV Stations Are Mere Iranian Mouthpieces/Elias Bejjani/January
06/2020
Nasrallah and Hezbollah Evil Organization are a cancer ravaging peace, and the
entity of Lebanon/Elias Bejjani/January 06/2020
With a crazy illuminated guy like Nasrallah and his followers I don’t have any
hope for a recovery for Lebanon./Roger Bejjani/Face Book/January 07/2020
Duel over Christian Seats Delaying New Govt. Formation
March 8 Says No Govt. over Next Two Days
Near-Final Government Line-Up Emerges
Berri meets with Kubis, Ibrahim
Protest march sets out from the Justice Palace in Beirut in demand for the
independence of the judiciary
"Dams are a Lebanese need," says Boustani
Rahi during Epiphany Mass: To form a government free of politicians, partisans'
influence and narrow interests
Abu Ghazaleh denies a recording attributed to him: Lebanon's economy, banking
system and Lira have my complete trust
Aram I calls for new faces within cabinet 'that inspire confidence and achieve
reform'
Bassil expresses solidarity with the Australian people
Dar Fatwa denies information on Derian's choosing names for cabinet formation
Ghosn to Speak Publicly on Escape from Japan
Ghosn 'Fled by Bullet Train', Japan Vows to Bolster Borders
Report: Lebanese, U.S. War Veterans Orchestrated Ghosn's Escape
Ghosn's escape from Japan: New details
Lebanon and Expectations on the 'Iranian Response’/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January
06/2020
Lebanon's Economic Crisis: A Ten Point Action Plan for Avoiding a Lost Decade/A
Citizen Initiative/Annahar /January 06/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 06-07/2020
IAEA will report any relevant developments after Iran deal announcement
U.S. Army Says Preparing to 'Move Out' of Iraq
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon: Trump
De-escalation is ‘in Iraq, Iran’s interest’: EU chief
US accuses Russia, China of blocking UN statement on Baghdad embassy attack
US Embassy in Israel issues alert warning of heightened Mideast tensions
UK PM Johnson, Iraq’s Abdul Mahdi agree need for deescalation: Statement
Russia minister discusses Mideast crisis with Turkish, Iranian officials
Iran general replacing Soleimani vows revenge for US killing
Slain Iranian commander Soleimani’s daughter says US faces ‘dark day’
Weeping, Khamenei Prays over Soleimani's Remains
Meant to Cripple Iran's Clout, Soleimani Killing Unites Its Allies
Iran ex-Guards Chief Vows to Turn Tel Aviv 'to Dust'
Merkel-Putin Talks in Moscow Saturday over Mideast Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
Germany Says Trump's Iraq Sanctions Threat 'Not Very Helpful'
US Warns Citizens in Israel of Rocket Fire Risk
France, Britain, Germany: Iran must refrain from violence, respect nuclear deal
Britain alarmed by Iran nuclear announcement: PM spokesman
EU diplomatic chief ‘deeply regrets’ Iran nuclear deal announcement
Trump threatens sanctions on Baghdad after lawmakers call on US troops to leave
Hamas leader attends Soleimani’s funeral in Iran
U.N. Security Council to Discuss Libya Crisis
Egypt to Meet Four European Countries on Libya Crisis
Top EU diplomat warns of ‘imminent’ Libya escalation
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 06-07/2020
Prepare for potential broad war between Iran and US – INSS annual report/Yonah
Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/January 06/2020
Palestinians in Syria: Another Year of Death and Misery/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/January 06/2020
Thanks to the President, U.S. Policy Heading in the Right Direction
Majid Rafizadeh//Gatestone Institute/January 06/2020
Yemen’s Houthis are poised to answer Tehran’s call for vengeance/Fatima Abo
Alasrar/Al Arabiya/January 06/2020
Soleimani and the End of the Red Lines/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January
06/2020
Qassem Soleimani's End... A Predictable Consequence of His Recklessness/Bobby
Ghosh/Bloomberg/January 06/2020
World must seize opportunities offered by Soleimani’s death/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/January 06/2020
Daring US interventions increase chances of Iran talks/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab
News/January 06/2020
The view from Tehran: Soleimani's death is just the beginning/Abbaspur Mohammadi/Ynetnews/January
06/2020
European powers keen to de-escalate US-Iran conflict/Chris Doyle/Arab
News/January 06/2020
ICC takes legal push against Israel to a new level/Ramzy Baroud/Arab
News/January 06/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published
on January 06-07/2020
Lebanon's TV Stations Are Mere Iranian Mouthpieces
Elias Bejjani/January 06/2020
The media facilities in Lebanon are totally deceptive and their owners have lost
all that is truth, righteousness, dignity and self respect. Sadly and because of
the Hezbollah oppression and terrorism these media facilities became Mere
trumpets, Cymbals, puppets and a bunch of hired mouthpieces
Nasrallah and Hezbollah Evil Organization are a cancer ravaging
peace, and the entity of Lebanon
Elias Bejjani/January 06/2020
Nasrallah's speech of today was a mere squawk, and a big bundle of
hallucinations, delusions, fallacies, advocacy for terrorism and an assault on
everything that is Lebanese, Arab world and peace in the Middle East.
With a crazy illuminated guy like Nasrallah and his followers I don’t have any
hope for a recovery for Lebanon.
Roger Bejjani/Face Book/January 07/2020
With a crazy illuminated guy like Nasrallah and his followers I don’t have any
hope for a recovery for Lebanon.
For the sake of his ideology and Iran he is ready to sacrifice Lebanon and the
Lebanese. Things will evolve dramatically bad from now on. I predict social
disruption, chaos, civil war, cross borders wars, assassinations....
The total absence of responsibility of the Iranian agents in Lebanon is the ONLY
thing Lebanese should have risen against. Instead thousands of Don Quichots have
risen against Siniora, Banks, Salame....and corruption.
As I have previously (a couple of months ago) proposed, a coherent region free
from Hezbollah should be framed and defended. From Akkar to Ras Beirut and Zahle
East. An airport opened in Akkar or Hamat (not Halât), BDL gold safe in Jounieh,
total boycott of Hezbollah controlled regions (Dahjye to south Lebanon and most
of Bekaa and Chouf).
Let them build their Iranian bridge head on the Mediterranean and let us build
our peaceful, neutral and prosperous Lebanon.
Duel over Christian Seats Delaying New Govt. Formation
Naharnet/January 06/2020
A standoff over the distribution of Christian seats is delaying the formation of
the new government, media reports said. “Communication was severed over the
weekend between the PM-designate and Minister Jebran Bassil and the exchange of
lists stopped,” An-Nahar newspaper reported on Monday. The obstacle related to
the foreign affairs portfolio has “stopped the momentum” of the past days, the
daily said. “The PM-designate has insisted on allocating it to ex-minister
Demianos Qattar, but he has faced a veto from Bassil, who wants it for
Ambassador Nassif Hitti or Ambassador Charbel Wehbe. The PM-designate has also
faced a veto from Bassil on ex-minister Ziad Baroud,” An-Nahar added.
March 8 Says No Govt. over Next Two Days
Naharnet/January 06/2020
The new government will not be formed on Monday or Tuesday, highly informed
March 8 sources have said. The remarks come despite reports that had suggested
that PM-designate Hassan Diab would form his government by Tuesday at the
latest. “The main obstacles related to Christian candidates and their portfolios
are still present and require further consultations,” the sources told al-Akhbar
newspaper in remarks published Monday. “Druze leaders are still objecting to the
distribution of portfolios,” the sources added.
Near-Final Government Line-Up Emerges
Naharnet/January 06/2020
A near-final line-up of Hassan Diab’s upcoming government has been leaked to the
media.
Below is a draft line-up published by An-Nahar newspaper on Monday:
- Finance: Ghazi Wazni (Shiite)
- Health: Dr. Ali Haidar (Shiite)
- Industry: Abdul Halim Fadlallah (Shiite)
- Agriculture & Tourism: Salem Darwish (Shiite)
- Interior: Brig. Gen. Talal al-Ladqi (Sunni)
- Telecom: Talal Hawat or Othman Sultan (Sunni)
- Education & Sport: Tarek Majzoub (Sunni)
- Displaced & Social Affairs: Dr. Ramzi Msharrafiyeh (Druze)
- Foreign Affairs: No agreement yet on Maronite candidate
- Defense: Maj. Gen. Michel Menassa or Zeina Adra (Maronite)
- Justice: Judge Henri Khoury (Maronite)
- Energy: No agreement yet on Maronite candidate
- Economy: Amal Haddad or Petra Khoury (Christian)
- Labor: Amal Haddad or Petra Khoury (Christian)
- Information & Culture: Varte Ohanian (Armenian)
- Administrative Development: Jack Sarraf (Greek Orthodox)
- Deputy PM: Amal Haddad or Jack Sarraf (Greek Orthodox)
Berri meets with Kubis, Ibrahim
NNA /January 06/2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, met at Ain El-Tineh Palace today with the Special
Coordinator of the United Nations Secretary-General in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with
the current prevailing conditions in Lebanon and the region topping their
discussions.
Berri later conferred with Public Security General Director, Major General Abbas
Ibrahim.
Protest march sets out from the Justice Palace in Beirut in demand for the
independence of the judiciary
NNA /January 06/2020
A march under the slogan of "Lebanese universities' uprise" set out this
afternoon from outside the Palace of Justice in Beirut, passing through several
points before reaching the Parliament House in downtonwn Beirut, NNA
correspondent reported. Participating protesters carrying Lebanese flags called
for the independence of the judiciary, while criticizing the country's political
class.
"Dams are a Lebanese need," says Boustani
NNA /January 06/2020
Caretaker Water and Energy Minister, Nada Boustani, highlighted Monday Lebanon's
essential need for water dams, during an inspection visit to Msailha Dam where
she had a closer look at the final work phase in completing the six million
cubic meters' dam.
"The water that has filled the dam reached about two million cubic meters, which
is considered one third of its full capacity," said Boustani, noting that "this
is the sixth dam to be completed in Lebanon."Boustani stressed that dams are an
essential need for Lebanon, adding that "without such dams, rain water would be
wasted into sea." She pointed to a national water and sanitation plan that has
been modernized and is soon-to-be launched by the Water and Energy Ministry.
Boustani indicated that the dam is currently in an experimental phase, whereby
the remaining works will be finished within one to two years' time. "Meanwhile,
the dam's water will be used for irrigation purposes, and upon the completion of
works in the refining station, its water will reach 30 villages along the
Batroun coast," she added. Boustani concluded by assuring that "no dam is built
in Lebanon without assessing the environmental impact within the necessary
environmental conditions, and here nature has given the dam an additional
tourism, environmental and sports value."
Rahi during Epiphany Mass: To form a government free of
politicians, partisans' influence and narrow interests
NNA /January 06/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, called Monday for forming
a new government away from the influence of politicians and partisans who are
held captives to their narrow interests and cheap calculations.In his religious
sermon during Epiphany Mass in Bkirki today, al-Rahi said: "It is our duty to
always address the consciences of political officials who are still impeding the
birth of the new government. We remind them before the 'Court of History' that
they are the ones who have brought Lebanon to the bottom at the level of its
economy, finance and people's daily living."The Patriarch criticized
politicians' repeated violations of the constitution and the renewed national
charter in the National Accord Document, while turning their deaf ears to the
cry of trade unionists and the demands of the people's uprising in all Lebanese
regions for nearly eighty days now. Al-Rahi, thus, raised prayers to the Lord
Almighty to help Lebanon escape its crises, first and foremost through having a
government that is free of the influence of its political class.
Abu Ghazaleh denies a recording attributed to him: Lebanon's economy, banking
system and Lira have my complete trust
NNA /January 06/2020
President of the Talal Abu Ghazaleh International Group denied in an issued
statement today a recent recording that was attributed to him regarding the
Lebanese banking system and economy, which was circulated on various social
media sites. Abu Ghazaleh stressed that the voice recording does not belong to
him, affirming his "full confidence in Lebanon, its economy, its banking system
and its pound.""My trust in Lebanon and Lebanese creativity is not shaken by
passing events as a result of economic and political circumstances," he said.
"The Lebanese economy, the Lebanese banking system and the Lebanese pound are
the object of my full confidence, and everyone who knows me knows my love for
Lebanon and its people and my belief in its future," Abu Ghazaleh underscored.
Aram I calls for new faces within cabinet 'that inspire
confidence and achieve reform'
NNA /January 06/2020
In his sermon celebrating the Armenian Orthodox Christmas on Monday, His
Holiness Catholicos Aram I of Cilicia pointed to the necessity of having new
faces within the cabinet "that would inspire confidence and achieve reform in
the country."He stressed the pressing need to form a new government that
triggers confidence, "without which it would be impossible to lead the country
towards prosperity and development," while calling for "sparing Lebanon, as much
as possible, the problems and interests of others."Addressing a crowd of
believers who attended today's Mass marking the Armenian Christmas, His Holiness
Aram I said: "Justice is the foundation of peace and the driving force for
development, and the cornerstone for peaceful coexistence," stressing that
"where justice is absent, chaos reigns and devastation prevails, and where moral
evils prevail, justice is defeated.""The main reason for the crises facing
humanity today is the absence of justice," said Aram I, criticizing states,
institutions and people who implement their plans based on their narrow
interests while ignoring justice, spreading evil around them and causing
poverty, coercion, violence and wars. "For this purpose we stood by the people,
because the Church is with justice and defends the rights of the people, as
Jesus taught us and as the Church must be, and is called upon to complete the
message of Jesus Christ," he said, referring to the past months that have
witnessed the people's uprising against injustice, social inequality and waste
of public money by state officials. "It is not enough to condemn injustice.
Rather, we must fight for justice. This is what we expect from officials in
Lebanon," underlined His Holiness Aram I.
Bassil expresses solidarity with the Australian people
NNA /January 06/2020
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Gebran Bassil expressed his regret for the
blazes that ravaged Australia and his solidarity with all its people. "With the
bushfires raging across Australia that have had a devastating impact on the
country's unique flora and fauna, we express our solidarity with the Austrlian
people, including tens of thousands of Lebanese origin," Bassil said in his
tweet Monday. He also instructed the Lebanese diplomatic missions in Canberra,
Sydney and Melbourne to take the necessary steps to reassure and support the
Lebanese in Australia under these circumstances
Dar Fatwa denies information on Derian's choosing names for
cabinet formation
NNA /January 06/2020
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian's media bureau denied in an issued
statement on Sunday the published news in a local newspaper and on social media
that the Mufti "imposes or supports names to be represented in the next
government." The statement added the "published information is groundless,
fabricated , fake, and inaccurate."
Ghosn to Speak Publicly on Escape from Japan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
Former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn will give a hotly awaited press conference in
Lebanon on Wednesday, his spokesman said, offering clarity on his recent flight
from Japan.Since arriving in his native Lebanon after skipping bail in Japan
almost a week ago, the 65-year-old businessman has given few media statements.
The circumstances of his flight from Japan, where he was under strict house
arrest facing charges of financial misconduct, remain unclear. The press
conference will be held in Beirut on January 8 at 1500 local time (1300 GMT),
his spokesman told AFP without giving further details.
The Japanese government responded Sunday for the first time since his flight.
"The escape of an accused on bail is unjustifiable," Japan's justice minister
Masako Mori said in a statement. Before fleeing, Ghosn was awaiting trial over
multiple counts of financial misconduct that he denied.
It was the latest twist in a saga that has gripped the business world and his
escape from Japan has left authorities there red-faced and scrambling to defend
their justice system from fierce international criticism. Ghosn's high-profile
arrest in November 2018 and his long detention under severe conditions were
widely considered draconian compared with the West. He twice won bail by
persuading the court he was not a flight risk -- decisions seen as controversial
at the time. Ghosn himself has said he left Japan because he was no longer
willing to be "held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system."
Ghosn 'Fled by Bullet Train', Japan Vows to Bolster Borders
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
New reports emerged Monday on how fugitive former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn
jumped bail in Japan, as the country's justice minister said border controls
would be bolstered after the escape. The 65-year-old executive skipped bail
nearly a week ago, fleeing Japan where he was awaiting trial on multiple counts
of financial misconduct that he denies. The details of his escape remain spotty,
with Japan saying it is still investigating how he slipped past strict security
measures imposed as part of his bail conditions. Citing sources close to the
investigation, public broadcaster NHK said Monday that Ghosn left his residence
by himself on the afternoon of December 29 and met two men at a Tokyo hotel. The
three then boarded a "shinkansen" bullet train together from Tokyo's Shinagawa
station to a station in western Osaka, arriving around 7:30 pm. The trio then
checked in at a hotel near Kansai Airport, but only the two men accompanying
Ghosn were caught on security camera leaving the hotel later in the evening, NHK
said. They were carrying "two big boxes" which were not checked by customs staff
at the airport, the report added. Ghosn is believed to have taken a private jet
from the airport that evening, bound for Istanbul, where he switched planes and
continued to Beirut. But many details of his departure from Japan are still
shrouded in mystery.
'Wrongful methods'
The justice ministry said it did not have records of Ghosn departing Japan.
"It is believed that he used some wrongful methods to illegally leave the
country," Justice Minister Masako Mori said at a press conference on Monday. "I
have instructed the immigration agency to further tighten the departure
process," she added. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Ghosn was loaded
onto the flight from Osaka in a large case for audio equipment, which was later
found at the back of the cabin. The newspaper cited unnamed sources close to the
investigation in Turkey as saying that holes had been drilled into the bottom of
the container to ensure the businessman could breathe.
Japan's transport ministry told AFP that luggage checks are not mandatory for
private jets. "Operators of private jets decide if luggage checks are necessary
or not while airline operators are obliged to conduct security checks under
Japan's aviation law," a ministry official told AFP.
"The security checks are carried out to prevent danger such as bombs, and to
prevent hijacks," he said, adding such risks are considered less likely for
private jets. Ghosn, who has French, Brazilian and Lebanese nationalities, was
able to enter Lebanon on a French passport, according to airport documents seen
by AFP. A court in Tokyo had allowed Ghosn to keep a second French passport as
he needed one to travel inside Japan, a source close to the matter has told AFP.
Japan has launched a probe into the humiliating security lapse and prosecutors
said they would "coordinate with the relevant agencies to swiftly and
appropriately investigate the matter." Ghosn has vowed to give his own account
at a hotly awaited press conference in Beirut this week.
Report: Lebanese, U.S. War Veterans Orchestrated Ghosn's Escape
Naharnet/January 06/2020
An American ex-soldier and a Lebanese former militiaman were on the plane that
took off from Japan to Turkey with Carlos Ghosn on board, a media report said.
Citing information obtained from Turkish authorities, French weekly Le Point
said only two names appeared on the registers of the Osaka-Istanbul flight
operated by MNG Jet -- those of Michael Taylor and George Zayek, as revealed by
U.S. daily The Wall Street Journal. The name of the third passenger, Carlos
Ghosn, does not appear at all on the documents. Michael Taylor is American. He
was born on Staten Island and is 59 years old. He began his career serving in
the United States Special Forces as a paratrooper for four years. He arrived in
Beirut in 1982 shortly after the assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel
and the Israeli invasion. According to Le Point, he then began to train the
Lebanese Forces militia and he maintains a “long-term relationship with the
Christian community in Lebanon.”Taylor, who speaks fluent English and Arabic,
later married a Lebanese woman and the couple lives in the suburbs of Boston. He
has founded a security company called American International Security Corp (AISC),
which employs ex-military and former secret service agents. It offers close
protection services for people threatened or on hostile ground, as well as
exfiltration services.
This former Green Beret had notably worked on the exfiltration of David Rohde, a
journalist kidnapped in Afghanistan in 2008. Taylor shut down his company after
trouble with American law and started another job. Zayek, the second man who
helped Ghosn, who has not yet reached the age of 60, was also present in the jet
which made the trip between Japan and Turkey. Zayek presents himself on the
AngelList and Bayt websites as a “security manager” having worked in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt and Nigeria. In the section where he describes his
skills, one reads "war, weapons, hostile lands." Zayek is the youngest brother
of Elias Zayek, a slain member of the Lebanese Forces. Elias was the commander
of the LF’s infantry. He was assassinated on January 19, 1990. LF leader Samir
Geagea was later convicted of ordering his murder. George Zayek meanwhile was a
fighter with the Lebanese Forces during the war. He made several stays in
hospital, wounded several times, notably in the eye and in the leg. Always
discreet, George worked a lot in Iraq, notably for the American forces during
the war of 2003. He also was involved in missions on behalf of private
companies, organizing the protection of sensitive industrial sites in Iraq and
other countries of the Middle East. Le Point said he is described as “a brave
man who likes to live dangerously.”
Ghosn's escape from Japan: New details
The Jazeera/January 06/2020
Former Nissan and Renault boss Carlos Ghosn began his astonishing escape from
Japan with a bullet train ride from Tokyo to Osaka, possibly accompanied by
several people, Japan's Kyodo News reported Monday. Japanese authorities also
said on Monday they may still press for Ghosn's extradition from Lebanon to face
multiple charges of financial wrongdoing, even though the country does not
usually extradite its nationals. Security cameras captured Ghosn leaving his
home on December 29 at about 2:30pm (05:30 GMT) and arriving some hours later at
Tokyo's Shinagawa Station, where he took the train to Shin-Osaka Station, Kyodo
said, citing a person familiar with the matter. The international fugitive then
went by car to a hotel near Osaka's Kansai International Airport, where he
boarded a private jet at 11:10pm, according to the media report.
Ghosn was forbidden from leaving Japan while awaiting trial on charges of
financial misconduct, which he has denied, but he fled at the end of last year
to escape what he called a "rigged" justice system. Prosecutors are now working
with police to piece together Ghosn's route and find out who helped him, Kyodo
said. In the government's first briefing since Ghosn skipped bail, Justice
Minister Masako Mori said on Monday that as a general principle, Tokyo could
request the extradition of a suspect from a country with which it has no formal
extradition agreement. Such a request would need to be carefully examined based
on the possibility of "guaranteeing reciprocity and the domestic law of the
partner country", Mori told reporters in Tokyo.Mori did not say what would
guarantee reciprocity - the idea that benefits or penalties extended by one
country to citizens of another should be reciprocated. She also did not say if
there were any Lebanese nationals in Japan wanted in Lebanon.
Red notice
According to a Lebanese judicial source, Lebanon has yet to receive a formal
notice from Interpol requesting Ghosn's arrest and will not take any steps until
it does. The source said on Monday that the so-called red notice it received
last week had been sent directly from Japan rather than via Interpol's
headquarters in Lyon, France. "There are questions in Wiesbaden and Lyon over
the legality of sending the notification directly from Tokyo to Lebanon without
passing through Interpol headquarters," the source said, referring to Interpol
offices.
When Lebanon has received red notices in the past, suspects have not been
detained, but their passports have been confiscated, and bail has been set, a
judicial source said last week. Mori offered little insight into the events of
Ghosn's escape to his ancestral home, repeatedly saying she could not comment on
specifics because of an ongoing investigation. Japanese officials broke days of
silence about the Ghosn case on Sunday, saying they would tighten immigration
measures and investigate his escape thoroughly. The authorities have also issued
an international notice for his arrest. Mori also defended Japan's justice
system against Ghosn's charges that it was "rigged" and discriminatory. In
Japan, suspects who deny charges against them are often detained for long
periods and subject to lengthy questioning without a lawyer present, a system
critics call "hostage justice"."Various comments about Japan's justice system
and this unjust departure are two different things," Mori told reporters, saying
criticism of the justice system could not be used to condone Ghosn's escape.
"Departure in an unjust way without proper procedure is tantamount to smuggling,
an illegal departure amounting to a crime."
Lebanon and Expectations on the 'Iranian Response’
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 06/2020
While the Lebanese were glued to their television screens, watching the news of
the killing of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and its aftermath, a
breaking news headline appeared on the screen: “Israeli planes fly at low
altitudes over Sidon and the south”.
It seemed clear that the Israelis immediately started preparing themselves after
they heard the news and the calls for retaliation and revenge. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu cut short his trip to Greece and returned to Israel. The
Defense Minister Naftali Benet called for an emergency meeting among his
high-ranking officials, announcing that he would meet Chief of Staff Aviv
Kochavi and the most prominent security officials at the military headquarters
in Tel Aviv. Talk of the northern front returned to the forefront.
Obviously, Israel’s involvement is no secret. It brings back flashes of the
nightmare of an Iranian-Israeli war fought in the Levant. Those who hate the
Iranian regime and its behavior are aware that what Israel is doing will not
further their interests, that it only acts against their interests. Death and
destruction are the only prospects on the horizon in the region, especially in
tormented Iraq.
However, what would be worse than Israeli interference in Lebanon is if there
were intentions to call on the Israelis to interfere. Amos Harel, in his Op-ed
for Haaretz, which opposes Netanyahu, writes that his state “has every reason to
stay out of the escalating conflict, although regime in Tehran will try to storm
Israel because of its ideological grudge against us”.
However, summoning an intervention through an "Iranian response" from Lebanon
would almost be suicidal. It would harm the Lebanese people, especially
Hezbollah and its milieu. For this reason, regardless of the rhetoric of the
enthusiastic orators, the Secretary-General of the party was keen to avoid
pledging anything specific in his statement. He said: "The just retribution for
those who were killed by criminals, the worst villains in the world, will be the
responsibility of all the resistance fighters and Mujahedeen throughout the
world." The word "all" means everyone, but it could also be seen to concern no
one. According to the same logic, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council,
which is aware that the available options are limited, claimed that "the
response to the crime will cover the entire region and will be heavy and
painful”.
Thus, given the precedence of Iran refraining from responding to the many
Israeli strikes in Syria and Iran igniting wars through its proxies, it is
useful to remind ourselves of well-established facts of the Lebanese situation:
First, war is an expensive project, and Iran, the presumed funder of this
project, is bankrupt; on top of that, the killing of Soleimani will not suffice
to quell its internal unrest.
Second, and in contrast to the 2006 war, no post-war Arab money will be
received, and the bankrupt Lebanese state will not be able to provide any
emergency support.
Third, and because of Hezbollah's political behavior, especially since 2008,
there will be no substantial communal receptions for civilian victims who may be
displaced northward by another Israeli war.
Fourth, which is more accurate in the case of Iraq, any appearance of an
appetite for war will be interpreted unambiguously as an appetite for
counter-revolution. Advocates of war will be seen wanting Lebanon and Iraq to
exclusively be war zones. Allegations, shared in the past few weeks, about the
link between the Iraqi and Lebanese revolutions with "embassies and Americans"
may form the base of rationalizations for repressive measures. In addition, a
fighter, that is any fighter, must take his rival’s calculations into
consideration. Netanyahu, who does not lack the desire or appetite to harm Iran
and Hezbollah, is facing a very complicated general election, an election in
which his personal future and reputation are on the line. Donald Trump, who will
automatically support Israel, is also awaiting an election before which he hopes
that the killing of Qassem Soleimani, after Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, will be
equivalent to Barack Obama’s killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011, especially that
the latter was defeated and hidden when he was killed, while Soleimani was
wandering victorious between Imperial capitals.
This is not to say that Netanyahu and Trump's wishes are necessarily fateful.
But defeating those desires requires extraordinary Iranian power which is not
available today, neither economically nor militarily. It is true that this force
can carry out separate terrorist acts here and there, such as killing or
kidnapping Americans, and bombing oil tankers, but those same actions may
become, in light of the direct confrontation with Washington, a double-edged
sword. Therefore, it is for the best that no one dies in the defense of the
Iranian regime, especially that winning the war is impossible. Tehran, whether
it will respond or not, has already lost many of its sources of power, and
perhaps the last event was its entry point to the gradual loss of what remains
of those sources of power. As for Lebanon in particular, the lower the zeal of
some of its parties for the confrontation, regardless of its size, the lower the
cost of pain and devastation that may follow.
Lebanon's Economic Crisis: A Ten Point Action Plan for
Avoiding a Lost Decade
A Citizen Initiative/Annahar /January 06/2020
The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a
dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted
a culture of corruption and waste.
BEIRUT: An independent group of development specialists, economists, and finance
experts met in Beirut late-December to discuss the ongoing economic crisis and
the path forward. This note summarizes the deliberations and puts forth a
ten-point action plan meant to arrest the crisis and place the country on a path
of sustained recovery.
How did we get here?
The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a
dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted
a culture of corruption and waste. The country, led by the public sector, lived
beyond its means. Decades of pursuing this model left the economy with high debt
and a bloated banking sector.Inevitably, the dramatic debt increase resulted in
an-expanding debt-servicing burden. The large yearly funding needs rendered the
country vulnerable to external and regional shocks. As external financial flows
into Lebanon slowed, the central bank resorted to desperate and extremely
expensive efforts to attract them. Ultimately, this proved unsustainable. Since
October, we’ve had a virtual cessation of capital inflows and a sharp
acceleration of outflows.
Where are we now?
This situation leaves the country with three simultaneous crises.
The first is a balance of payments and currency crises. For 2020, we estimate
the gap between USD supply and USD demand at $8 billion. If this gap is not
filled, the economy will experience difficulties including the servicing of
external debt, imported goods’ shortages, currency devaluation, and economic
contraction. The second crisis is that of public finance. Beginning with a 10
percent of GDP deficit in 2019, government revenues are now collapsing under the
weight of the recession and the banking crisis described below.
Inflation-adjusted spending is also crumbling. We estimate a $3 billion primary
budget deficit (excluding interest payments) for 2020. In the current situation,
funding this deficit will prove challenging. The third crisis is that of the
banking system. With almost half of banks’ assets invested in Lebanese sovereign
risk including with the Banque du Liban (BDL) and another quarter representing
risky private sector claims, banks are effectively insolvent and illiquid.
Despite the loose and inefficient capital and banking controls recently put in
place, the sector is experiencing a deposit run. In similar international
experiences, the central bank usually steps in and provides the liquidity that
banks need. However, the BdL is constrained by its limited USD reserves and by
fears that an oversupply of LBP would lead to further currency weakening.
Consequences of continuing on the current path
Persisting with the current ad hoc approach to policymaking will lead Lebanon on
a path of implosion and political disintegration. We foresee seven consequences:
1. The economy will experience a deep recession. USD shortages will force the
economy to adjust to lower imports. Bank and capital controls will hit a private
sector that is dependent on liquidity and credit; business closures, salary
reductions, and layoffs have already become common. The public sector will
retrench given difficult financing conditions. Under this scenario, we forecast
the economy will experience a double-digit contraction in 2020—i.e., a recession
equivalent to what the US experienced during the Great Depression.
2. The Foreign Exchange (FX) will weaken sharply. The LBP will adjust downwards
to bring the supply and demand of USD into balance. Left to its own devices, we
estimate the FX could lose up to half its value leading to high inflation. In
turn, this will have a massive negative impact on the cost of living, the
availability of essential goods, food and healthcare, businesses and
unemployment.
3. Capital and bank controls will intensify. Banks will continue rationing
deposit withdrawals and external transfers. The private sector’s liquidity
crunch will deepen and disorderly and un-managed debt defaults (including on
Eurobonds) will prove inevitable. BdL will hemorrhage international reserves.
4. Debilitating social conditions will intensify. This kind of economic collapse
will cause catastrophic wealth destruction. Poverty rates could rise to more
than 40 percent of the Lebanese population with 1.6 million people unable to
afford food and basic nonfood items. Unemployment will increase and much of the
middle class could be eliminated.
5. A seismic political shift is likely to occur. The current political parties
will not emerge unscathed. The security repercussions of social unrest will be
significant and difficult to predict.
6. Without addressing the root causes, the crises will prove long-lasting. To
put it in stark terms, this would become a decade long economic crisis—one from
which chances of recovery are significantly dim. A “lost decade” will result
from this scenario.
7. Finally, international financial support is likely to fall far short of what
is needed to relieve the economy.
Is there a better approach?
We think there is. Below we outline a three-year program that aims to arrest the
crisis, deal with its root causes and set the country back on a path of
recovery. The program seeks to ensure equitable burden-sharing of the crisis’
fallout while protecting the most vulnerable especially during the period of
transition. The ten concrete steps below should be implemented in parallel
rather than piecemeal.
1. Establish an empowered economic emergency steering committee to design,
negotiate and implement the program. In parallel, create participatory
mechanisms to discuss with civil society the policy package, and to empower
citizens to monitor its implementation.
2. Replace the ad hoc and self-administered capital and banking controls.
Controls are likely needed for an extended period even in the best of scenarios.
They need to be run in a centralized and transparent fashion backed by proper
legislation.
3. Decisively deal with public sector debt. Immediately announce a moratorium on
debt payments (external and domestic), hire legal counsel, and convene a
creditor’s committee. Our view is that Lebanon’s fundamentals justify a debt
load ranging between 60 and 80 percent of GDP over the medium term. To reach
this target, creditors should be offered a menu of concessions including lower
principal, reduced interest rates, and extended maturities.
4. Embark on a credible fiscal reform. Public spending, currently inefficient,
wasteful, and vulnerable to corruption, must be transformed. The electricity
sector is but one example. A wholesale governance and regulatory reform program
are needed to curb the rent-seeking culture. These reforms, along with savings
accruing from lower debt servicing, should allow for increased spending on
social sectors and infrastructure. Second, a broad revenue reform is needed that
focuses less on raising tax rates and more on addressing weak collection and
overt reliance on specific sectors. Third, we recommend the adoption of a
binding and credible “fiscal rule” that caps the size of future budget deficits.
5. Deal with private-sector debt. The private sector is facing a severe crisis.
Convene a creditor/debtor roundtable to agree on a standardized menu of
financial relief actions aiming to safeguard viable firms while orderly
liquidating those that aren’t. The existing draft Bankruptcy and Restructuring
law should be promptly passed.
6. Repair BdL’s balance sheet. BDL is a large lender to the government and has
an estimated USD30 billion negative net FX position rendering it vulnerable to
devaluations. Until this is dealt with, it is tough to see the confidence in the
LBP returning.
7. Bring the banking sector back to health as a prerequisite to reinvigorating
the economy. Public debt restructuring and mounting Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)
will render many banks insolvent. Complicating matters, banks are highly exposed
to the BdL who’s own balance sheet is impaired. Current bank equity is far from
sufficient to cover these hits. Our estimates suggest $20-25 billion of fresh
capital is urgently needed. Current shareholders need to assume the losses and
be required to bring in fresh capital. This may also necessitate a reduction in
the number of banks. In parallel, foreign loans and State assets could
conceivably be used to recapitalize the sector (see below). As the above is not
likely to be enough, there is a near-certain need for reducing portions of large
deposits and swapping them into bank equity.
8. Preserve social peace through a focus on social justice. This involves the
distribution of losses that are concentrated on the richest in society while
sparing small bank depositors. Foreign funding should be used to blunt the pain
of adjustment. A safety net must be put in place to fight poverty and support
health and education. And workers should be helped to transition out of decaying
sectors into those that benefit from the devaluation.
9. Re-think the FX/monetary policy mix. The fixed (and overvalued) exchange rate
regime has contributed to large current account deficits, hurt export-oriented
sectors, and forced BdL to maintain elevated interest rates. Looking forward, we
recommend a more flexible exchange rate arrangement centered around a weaker LBP.
However, until confidence in the LBP returns, it will be dangerous to allow the
currency to freely float. Some form of currency management will have to maintain
for the medium term.
10. Secure a multi-year Stabilization and Structural Reform Facility. We
estimate that a three-year $25 billion fund is needed. This facility should be
used to shore up BDL’s net reserves, help fund the immediate government
budgetary needs, finance badly needed social spending, and contribute to bank
recapitalization. The economic program recommended above can garner this kind of
support, including from the World Bank, the EU, and the GCC. However, it will
realistically require an IMF program as an umbrella. We also think there is
scope to partly fund this facility with state assets and possibly hoped-for oil
and gas revenues. We cannot overstate the importance of good governance,
transparency, and accountability in this regard.
Conclusion
The consequences of the current path are catastrophic. Delays will only increase
dislocation, exponentially magnify the needed adjustment, and place the burden
on those least able to shoulder it. A better option is available. It won’t be
easy, may at times prove painful and will certainly require a new social
contract. But we sincerely believe this approach will pave the way for a better
and prosperous future.
Signatories (in their personal capacities)
Firas Abi Nasif, Edward Asseily, Bilal Bazzy, Amer Bisat, Henri Chaoul, Ishac
Diwan, Hanine el Sayed, Ali El Reda Youssef, Saeb el Zein, Nabil Fahed, Philippe
Jabr, May Nasrallah, Paul Raphael, Jean Riachi, Nisreen Salti, Nasser Saidi,
Sami Nader, Kamal Shehadi, Maha Yahya, Bassam Yammine, Gerard Zouein
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 06-07/2020
IAEA will report any relevant developments after Iran deal announcement
Reuters, Vienna/Monday, 6 January 2020
The UN nuclear watchdog said on Monday it will inform its member states as
appropriate on any developments in Iran after Tehran’s latest announcement on
walking away reversibly from its deal with major powers. “IAEA inspectors
continue to carry out verification and monitoring activities in the country,”
the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement. “The IAEA will keep
its member states informed of any developments in this regard in a timely manner
as appropriate,” it added.
U.S. Army Says Preparing to 'Move Out' of Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
The U.S. military informed its counterparts in Baghdad on Monday it was
preparing for "movement out of Iraq," a day after the Iraqi parliament urged the
government oust foreign troops. The head of the U.S. military's Task Force Iraq,
Brigadier General William Seely, sent a letter to the head of Iraq's joint
operations command, a copy of which was seen by AFP. The letter said
troops would "be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and
weeks to prepare for onward movement."A U.S. defense official and an Iraqi
defense official confirmed the letter was real and had been delivered.
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon: Trump
AFP, Washington/Monday, 6 January 2020
President Donald Trump on Monday repeated his insistence that Iran will not be
allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Writing in all-caps, the US leader tweeted:
“IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
The tweet came a day after Tehran announced it was further winding down
observance of parts of an international deal struck to ensure that the country
does not secretly develop a nuclear weapon under cover of its civilian nuclear
industry. Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 deal negotiated under
his predecessor Barack Obama. Tehran’s announcement coincided with a major
escalation of hostilities following the US killing of top Iranian military
commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike on Friday in the Iraqi capita,
Baghdad.
De-escalation is ‘in Iraq, Iran’s interest’: EU chief
AFP, Seeon/Monday, 6 January 2020
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on Monday urged Iran and Iraq not to further
escalate a crisis in the region as tensions with Washington soared following a
US drone strike that killed a top Iranian general. “It is important now... to
use diplomatic channels and to make clear that it is also in the interest of
Iran and in particular in the interest of Iraq to take the path of sobriety and
not the path of escalation,” von der Leyen told journalists at a meeting of
Germany’s CSU party.
US accuses Russia, China of blocking UN statement on
Baghdad embassy attack
Reuters, United Nations/Monday, 6 January 2020
The United States accused Russia and China on Monday of blocking a United
Nations Security Council statement “underscoring the inviolability of diplomatic
and consular premises” after a December 31 attack on the US embassy in Baghdad.
Such statements by the 15-member Security Council have to be agreed by
consensus. The US mission to the United Nations said 27 countries spoke out
against the attack on the Baghdad embassy “in stark contrast to the United
Nations Security Council’s silence due to two permanent members - Russia and
China - not allowing a statement to proceed.”
US Embassy in Israel issues alert warning of heightened
Mideast tensions
Reuters, Jerusalem/Monday, 6 January 2020
The US Embassy in Israel on Monday issued a security alert warning US citizens
of “heightened tensions” in the Middle East, and highlighting the risk of rocket
attacks. The alert, published on the Embassy’s website and that of the State
Department, made no mention of the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem
Soleimani by a US drone strike last week, or of any specific country or group.
Headlined “Heightened Middle East Tensions” it warned of possible “security
risks to US citizens abroad,” adding: “Out of an abundance of caution, the
Embassy strongly encourages US citizens to remain vigilant and take appropriate
steps to increase their security awareness, as security incidents, including
rocket fire, often take place without warning.”
UK PM Johnson, Iraq’s Abdul Mahdi agree need for deescalation: Statement
Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 6 January 2020
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Iraqi counterpart Adil Abdul Mahdi
agreed on Tuesday on the need to deescalate tensions in the region following the
death of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.
Johnson spoke to Abdul Mahdi in a phone call in which he underlined the UK’s
unwavering commitment to Iraq’s stability and sovereignty, according to a
statement from Downing Street. The statement echoed other leaders’ calls for
deescalation following the death of Soleimani, who led Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps, at the hands of a US airstrike on Friday. Iran has
vowed to take revenge. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said
earlier on Monday that the Kingdom hopes the situation in the region does not
escalate. With Reuters.
Russia minister discusses Mideast crisis with Turkish,
Iranian officials
Reuters, Moscow/Monday, 6 January 2020
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held telephone talks with Turkish
national intelligence chief and chief of Iran’s general staff, local news
agencies reported citing the Russian defense ministry. Shoigu and Head of
Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization Hakan Fidan discussed possible joint
actions to reduce tensions in the Middle East after the United States killed a
senior Iranian military commander in Iraq on Friday, Interfax quoted the Russian
defense ministry as saying. Tensions in the region have been high in the wake of
the US attack that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds
Force. Iran responded with a threat to seek revenge on America, and the US
responded by targeting 52 Iranian sites that it would strike if Iran attacks any
Americans or any US assets.
Iran general replacing Soleimani vows revenge for US
killing
The Associated Press, Reuters/Monday, 6 January 2020
An Iranian general who replaced the leader killed by a US airstrike in Baghdad
vowed Sunday to take revenge as Tehran abandoned the remaining limits of its
2015 nuclear deal with world powers in response to the slaying. Esmail Ghaani’s
threat comes as the blowback over the US killing of top Iranian general Qassem
Soleimani mounted Sunday with Iraq’s parliament calling for the expulsion of all
American troops from Iraqi soil. “We promise to continue martyr Soleimani’s path
with the same force...and the only compensation for us would be to remove
America from the region,” state radio quoted Esmail Qaani as saying ahead of
Soleimani’s funeral in the capital, Tehran. The three developments could bring
Iran closer to building an atomic bomb, making the Middle East a far more
dangerous and unstable place. Adding to the tensions, President Donald Trump
threatened to demand billions of dollars in compensation from Iraq or impose
“sanctions like they’ve never seen before” if it goes through with expelling US
troops. Ghaani made his remarks in an interview with Iranian state television
aired Monday. Ghaani said: “God the almighty has promised to get his revenge,
and God is the main avenger. Certainly actions will be taken.”
Slain Iranian commander Soleimani’s daughter says US faces
‘dark day’
Agencies/Monday, 6 January 2020
The daughter of the slain commander of Iran’s Quds Force told a huge crowd on
Monday at his funeral ceremony in Tehran that the United States and its ally
Israel faced a “dark day” for his death. “Crazy Trump, don’t think that
everything is over with my father’s martyrdom,” Zeinab Soleimani said in an
address broadcast on state television, after US President Donald Trump ordered
an air strike on Friday that killed General Qassem Soleimani.She also said that
families of US troops in the Middle East are now “waiting for death of their
children.”
Weeping, Khamenei Prays over Soleimani's
Remains
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 06/2020
Weeping amid wails from a crowd of hundreds of thousands of mourners, Iran's
supreme leader on Monday prayed over the remains of a top Iranian general killed
in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad, an attack that's drastically raised tensions
between Tehran and Washington.
The assault killing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani already
has seen his replacement vow to take revenge as Tehran has abandoned the
remaining limits of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers in response to the
slaying. Separately, Iraq's parliament has called for the expulsion of all
American troops from Iraqi soil. The three developments could bring Iran closer
to building an atomic bomb, set off a proxy or military attack launched by
Tehran against America and enable the Islamic State group to stage a comeback in
Iraq, making the Middle East a far more dangerous and unstable place.
Adding to the tensions, President Donald Trump threatened to demand billions of
dollars in compensation from Iraq or impose "sanctions like they've never seen
before" if it goes through with expelling U.S. troops. Soleimani's daughter,
Zeinab, directly threatened an attack on the U.S. military in the Mideast while
speaking to a crowd of hundreds of thousands in Tehran that stretched as far as
the eye could see. "The families of U.S. soldiers in the Middle East will spend
their days waiting for death of their children," she said to cheers.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself prayed over the caskets of
Soleimani and others slain in the attack. Khamenei, who had a close relationship
with Soleimani, Khamenei wept at one point during the traditional Muslim prayers
for the dead. The crowd and others wailed.
Ghaani stood near Khamenei's side, as did Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and
other top leaders in the Islamic Republic. While Iran recently faced nationwide
protests over government-set gasoline prices that reportedly killed over 300
people, Soleimani's mass processionals has seen politicians and leaders across
the Islamic Republic's political spectrum take part, temporarily silencing that
anger.
Ghaani meanwhile made his threat in an interview with Iranian state television
aired Monday. "God the almighty has promised to get his revenge, and God is the
main avenger. Certainly actions will be taken," he said. Ghaani now serves as
the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, an expeditionary arm of the
paramilitary organization answerable only to Khamenei. As Soleimani's longtime
deputy, Ghaani has been sanctioned by the U.S. since 2012 for his work funding
its operations around the world, including its work with proxies in Iraq,
Lebanon and Yemen. Those proxies likely will be involved in any operation
targeting U.S. interests in the Mideast or elsewhere in the world.
Already, the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia warned Americans "of the heightened
risk of missile and drone attacks." In Lebanon, the leader of the Iranian-backed
militant group Hezbollah said Soleimani's killing made U.S. military bases,
warships and service members across the region fair game for attacks. A former
Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader suggested the Israeli city of Haifa and
others could be targeted should the U.S. attack Iran. "We promise to continue
down martyr Soleimani's path as firmly as before with help of God, and in return
for his martyrdom we aim to get rid of America from the region," Ghaani said. On
the nuclear deal, Iranian state television cited Sunday a statement by President
Hassan Rouhani's administration saying the country would not observe the nuclear
deal's restrictions on fuel enrichment, on the size of its enriched uranium
stockpile and on its research and development activities.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran no longer faces any limitations in operations," a
state TV broadcaster said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President
Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson specifically urged Iran
to "withdraw all measures" not in line with the 2015 agreement that was intended
to stop Tehran from pursuing its atomic weapons program.
Iran insisted that it remains open to negotiations with European partners over
its nuclear program. And it did not back off from earlier promises that it
wouldn't seek a nuclear weapon. However, the announcement represents the
clearest nuclear proliferation threat yet made by Iran since Trump unilaterally
withdrew from the accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. It further raises
regional tensions, as Iran's longtime foe Israel has promised never to allow
Iran to produce an atomic bomb. Iran did not elaborate on what levels it would
immediately reach in its program.Tehran has already broken some of the deal's
limits as part of a step-by-step pressure campaign to get sanctions relief. It
already has increased its production, begun enriching uranium to 5% and
restarted enrichment at an underground facility. While it does not possess
uranium enriched to weapons-grade levels of 90%, any push forward narrows the
estimated one-year "breakout time" needed for it to have enough material to
build a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations watchdog observing
Iran's program, did not respond to a request for comment. However, Iran said
that its cooperation with the IAEA "will continue as before." Foreign Ministry
spokesman Abbas Mousavi earlier told journalists that Soleimani's killing would
prompt Iranian officials to take a bigger step away from the nuclear deal. "In
the world of politics, all developments are interconnected," Mousavi said.
Soleimani's killing has escalated the crisis between Tehran and Washington after
months of back-and-forth attacks and threats that have put the wider Middle East
on edge. Iran has promised "harsh revenge" for the U.S. attack, while Trump has
vowed on Twitter that the U.S. will strike back at 52 targets "VERY FAST AND
VERY HARD. "
He doubled down on that threat Sunday, dismissing warnings that targeting
cultural sites could be a war crime under international law. "They're allowed to
kill our people. They're allowed to torture and maim our people. They're allowed
to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch
their cultural sites? It doesn't work that way," Trump told reporters. On
Sunday, hundreds of thousands of mourners accompanied the coffin carrying
Soleimani's remains in the Iranian cities of Ahvaz and Mashhad. A similar
procession was expected in Qom and Tehran on Monday. Tens of thousands already
filled the streets of the Iranian capital early Monday morning. Mourners wearing
black beat their chests and carried posters with Soleimani's portrait.
Demonstrators also unfurled red Shiite flags, which traditionally symbolize both
the spilled blood of someone unjustly killed and a call for vengeance.
The processions mark the first time Iran honored a single man with a multi-city
ceremony. Not even Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic
Republic, received such a processional with his death in 1989. Soleimani on
Monday will lie in state at Tehran's famed Musalla mosque as the revolutionary
leader did before him. He will be buried in his hometown of Kerman.
Meant to Cripple Iran's Clout, Soleimani Killing Unites Its
Allies
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
The U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was meant to cripple
Tehran's clout in the Middle East, but analysts see the allies of the Islamic
Republic closing rank instead. As the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards'
Quds Force, Soleimani oversaw Tehran's interventions in regional power struggles
from Lebanon and Iraq to Syria and Yemen. Washington had hoped his killing in a
Baghdad drone strike Friday would deal a blow to Iran and its network of proxies
-- but the plan appears to have backfired by uniting pro-Iran factions under an
"axis of resistance".
"The strike unified the resistance forces and made combatting the United States
a priority," said Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese expert in Islamic movements. "The
assassination was a strategic mistake, and the response will be across the
region -- not just limited to Iraq," said Qassir.
Indeed, pro-Iran factions in Iraq have seized on the strike to secure a
political and popular revival. Kataeb Hezbollah, a vehemently anti-American
armed faction in Iraq, said the strike was "the beginning of the end of the U.S.
presence in the region."Iraqi populist cleric Moqtada Sadr swiftly reactivated
his Mahdi Army, the notorious militia that fought U.S. troops after the
American-led invasion of 2003. "The Iraqi factions of the resistance must hold
an immediate meeting to form the International Resistance Regiments," he
tweeted, telling his fighters to "be ready."
- 'Turn the skies to hell' -
Qais al-Khazali, a paramilitary leader and bitter rival of Sadr's, echoed his
calls for fighting units to mobilize following the strike on Soleimani. Khazali
also threatened U.S. troops who have been stationed across Iraq since 2014 as
part of the global coalition battling the Islamic State group.
On Sunday, Iraq's parliament voted in favor of ousting U.S. troops although the
decision rests with the government. "If you don't leave, or if you procrastinate
in leaving, you will find a strong Iraqi response that will shake the ground
beneath your feet and turn the skies above you into hell," Khazali warned. Even
Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's highest Shiite authority, broke with
standard protocol to mourn Soleimani. In a first, Sistani sent a letter to
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to offer his condolences. Further afield in
Lebanon, Iran-backed Hizbullah said the strike represented a threat to "all the
movements, leaders and countries of the axis of resistance."The killing of "Qasem
Soleimani is not an Iranian issue. It concerns the axis of resistance -- it
concerns the Muslim world," said the movement's influential leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, meanwhile, called for "direct and
swift reprisals" to the strike.Palestinian movement Hamas slammed it as an
"American rampage," and its head Ismail Haniya traveled to Tehran for
Soleimani's funeral. And the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine also urged "a coordinated, comprehensive and continuous response from
resistance forces."
- 'Closing of rank' -
"There could be a closing of rank and a reinforcement of confessionalism," said
Karim Bitar of the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic
Affairs. He said Iran's allies in the region would set economic or political
goals aside to prioritize the "emergency security situation" triggered by
Soleimani's death. "Soon enough, this decision by (U.S. President) Donald Trump
will be seen as counter-productive," Bitar predicted. Trump has threatened Iran
with "major retaliation" if it responds to the strike, openly warning in a tweet
on Sunday that U.S. action may even be "disproportionate." He had already
threatened to bomb 52 unspecified targets in Iran if Tehran attacks U.S.
interests in the region. "Tehran has the sword of Damocles hanging over its
head," Bitar told AFP. "But the threat of foreign intervention will reunite
Iranians of all social classes, both opponents and supporters of the regime," he
said.
Indeed, unprecedented crowds have turned out in Iran to mourn Soleimani and the
four other Revolutionary Guards killed in the U.S. strike. Ultimately, the
assassination could end up bolstering the Iranian government, which will benefit
from a phenomenon of "rallying around the flag," Bitar said.
Iran ex-Guards Chief Vows to Turn Tel Aviv 'to Dust'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
A former head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has threatened to turn the Israeli
cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv "to dust" if the U.S. attacks targets in Iran. "If
America takes any measures after our military response, we will turn Tel Aviv
and Haifa to dust," Mohsen Rezai, who currently heads the Expediency Council, a
top state body, said in a Tweet. His warning came after President Donald Trump
warned on Saturday that the U.S. would target 52 sites "important to Iran &
Iranian culture" and hit them "very fast and very hard" if the Islamic republic
attacked American personnel or assets. In a saber-rattling tweet that defended
Friday's U.S. drone strike assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem
Soleimani in Iraq, Trump said 52 represents the number of Americans held hostage
at the U.S. embassy in Tehran for more than a year starting in late 1979. "Mr
Trump, you tweeted that you will attack 52 targets in Iran?" Rezai was also
quoted as saying by the semi-official ISNA news agency. "You have said that you
will attack again if Iran gets revenge? Be sure that Iran will turn Haifa and
Israel's centers to dust in a way that Israel would be erased from the face of
the earth," he warned.
Trump's tweet also drew condemnation from Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif who responded on Twitter saying "targeting cultural sites is a WAR
CRIME.". Soleimani, who spearheaded Iran's Middle East operations as commander
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Quds Force, was killed in a U.S.
drone strike Friday near Baghdad airport. He was 62. The attack was ordered by
Trump, who said the Quds commander had been planning an "imminent" attack on
U.S. diplomats and forces in Iraq.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed "severe revenge."
Merkel-Putin Talks in Moscow Saturday over Mideast Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Moscow Saturday for talks with Russian
President Vladimir Putin amid escalating tensions following a U.S. drone strike
that killed an Iranian general, a German government spokesman said.Merkel, who
will be accompanied by Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, will discuss "the current
conflict troublespots" with Putin, including the Iran and Iraq crisis following
the U.S. assassination in Baghdad, as well as the conflict in Syria and unrest
in Libya, Steffen Seibert said Monday.
Germany Says Trump's Iraq Sanctions Threat 'Not Very Helpful'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to slap sanctions on Iraq should Baghdad
expel U.S. troops based there "is not very helpful", German Foreign Minister
Heiko Maas said Monday. "I don't think you can convince Iraq with threats, but
with arguments," Maas told Deutschlandfunk radio, warning that years-long
efforts to rebuild Iraq "could all be lost" if the situation escalates. Trump
earlier vowed to hit Iraq with sanctions "like they've never seen before" if US
troops are forced to leave the country. The threat came after Iraqi lawmakers
voted on Sunday to request the government end an agreement with a US-led
international coalition to fight the hardline Islamist group IS in the region.
Tensions have soared following the killing of top Iranian general Qasem
Soleimani by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad on Friday. A furious Tehran has
since announced a further step back from its commitments to the 2015 nuclear
accord, leaving the future of the hard-fought pact in doubt. European leaders
have called for an urgent de-escalation of tensions, but Maas admitted that U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had hoped for more full-throated backing from
allies. "Apparently he wasn't too happy that we didn't 100 percent support
America's actions," Maas said after Pompeo spoke by phone with his German,
French and British counterparts. Maas said it was important that the European
Union presented a united stance so it could play a meaningful role in helping to
cool tempers. "Our own security interests are massively affected by the fight in
Iraq against international terrorism, against IS, so we have a responsibility
here," he said. "I think it's necessary that the EU foreign ministers quickly
convene in Brussels to coordinate a European position."He also said Germany,
France and Britain would decide this week how to react to Iran's decision to
forego the limit on enrichment it had pledged to honor in the nuclear agreement.
"We can't just accept this without responding," Maas said. It certainly doesn't
make things easier and it could be the first step towards the end of the deal
and that would be a great loss."
US Warns Citizens in Israel of Rocket Fire Risk
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 January, 2020
The United States on Monday warned its citizens in Israel and Palestinian
territories to be vigilant, citing the risk of rocket fire days after a US drone
strike killed an Iranian military commander in Baghdad. The alert issued on the
websites of the US State Department and the US embassy in Israel did not
specifically mention the killing of Qassem Soleimani but referred to heightened
tensions in the Middle East. Israel has not issued a similar warning to its own
citizens, though Army Radio reported the military had been put on alert. The US
message said it "strongly encourages US citizens to remain vigilant and take
appropriate steps to increase their security awareness, as security incidents,
including rocket fire, often take place without warning." It said Israel's "red
alert" siren system may be activated in the event of "mortar or rocket fire".
Such attacks have been launched against Israel periodically from the Hamas-ruled
Gaza Strip, where the Islamic Jihad group is backed by Iran. Israel is also
concerned about possible retaliation for Soleimani's death by other Iranian
proxies and allies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas. But
aside from a one-day closure of a ski resort in the occupied Golan Heights on
the Syrian frontier after Friday's attack on Soleimani, there has been no sign
of any disruption of normal life in Israel.
France, Britain, Germany: Iran must refrain from violence,
respect nuclear deal
Reuters, Paris/Monday, 6 January 2020
The ‘E3’ group of countries comprised of France, Britain, and Germany called on
Iran to refrain from any violent action and urged Iran to go back to respecting
arrangements laid out in the JCPOA 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The
three countries also highlighted the importance of de-escalating tensions in
Iraq and Iran, and reaffirmed their determination to fight ISIS. “We reaffirm
our commitment to continuing the fight against ISIS, which remains a priority.
It is essential that we keep the coalition, in this regard. We call on the Iraqi
authorities to continue to supply the necessary support to the coalition,” the
E3 group said in a statement. “We are ready to continue talks with all parties
in order to contribute to de-escalating tensions and re-establishing stability
in the region,” added the E3 group.
Britain alarmed by Iran nuclear announcement: PM spokesman
Reuters, London/Monday, 6 January 2020
Iran’s announcement that it will abandon limitations on enriching uranium is
concerning and Britain is urgently speaking to parties about the next steps to
take, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday.
The spokesman also said there were international conventions in place to prevent
the destruction of cultural heritage after US president Donald Trump threatened
to hit 52 Iranian sites, including targets important to Iranian culture, if
Tehran attacks Americans or US assets.
EU diplomatic chief ‘deeply regrets’ Iran nuclear deal announcement
AFP, Brussels/Monday, 6 January 2020
The EU’s diplomatic chief Josep Borrell on Monday voiced regret at Tehran’s
latest decision to reduce its commitments to the beleaguered 2015 Iran nuclear
deal. “Deeply regret Iran’s latest announcement on #JCPOA. As ever we will rely
on @iaeaorg verification,” Borrell tweeted, using an abbreviation for the deal’s
formal name. “Full implementation of #NuclearDeal by all is now more important
than ever, for regional stability & global security. I will continue working
with all participants on way forward,” his tweet said.
Trump threatens sanctions on Baghdad after lawmakers call
on US troops to leave
Reuters/Monday, 6 January 2020
US President Donald Trump threatened sanctions against Baghdad on Sunday after
Iraq’s parliament called on US troops to leave the country, and the president
said if troops did leave, Baghdad would have to pay Washington for the cost of
the airbase there. “We have a very extraordinarily expensive airbase that’s
there. It cost billions of dollars to build, long before my time. We’re not
leaving unless they pay us back for it,” Trump told reporters on Air Force
One.Trump said that if Iraq asked US forces to leave and it was not done on a
friendly basis, “we will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before
ever. It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.”
Hamas leader attends Soleimani’s funeral in Iran
The Associated Press, Tehran/Monday, 6 January 2020
The leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas attended the funeral of slain
Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Tehran on Monday. Ismail Haniyeh addressed
Iranian mourners and described Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq on
Friday, as “the martyr of Jerusalem.”Haniyeh vowed that Palestinian militant
groups including Hamas, which currently controls Gaza, will walk Soleimani’s way
“to confront the Zionist project and the American influence.”
Haniyeh’s visit to Iran was surprising. In December, Egypt allowed him to travel
for his first regional tour since his 2017 election into the Hamas leadership on
the condition that he not visit Iran, according to Arab and Israel media
reports. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attended the funeral,
praying and weeping over Soleimani’s casket.
U.N. Security Council to Discuss Libya Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
The U.N. Security Council will meet behind closed doors on Monday about the
situation in Libya, as Turkish troops begun deploying to the country in a bid to
shore up the U.N.-recognized government in Tripoli, diplomats said. The meeting,
held at Russia's request, is formally focused on an international conference on
Libya that Germany hopes to organize by month's end. So far, no date for the
meeting has been announced. But Monday's talks will be the first chance for
Security Council members to discuss controversial security and maritime deals
struck by Libya and Turkey in November -- and Ankara's subsequent decision to
send troops to Libya. Turkey's move comes after the Tripoli-based Government of
National Accord -- under sustained attack since military strongman general
Khalifa Haftar launched his offensive in April -- made a formal request for
military support. The maritime agreement reached by Tripoli and Ankara gives
Turkey rights to large swathes of the Mediterranean where gas reserves have
recently been discovered. That has angered other Mediterranean countries
including Greece and Cyprus, who also seek to exploit energy resources in the
region. At least 30 people were killed and 33 others wounded in an air strike on
a military school in Tripoli on Saturday, according to the government. U.N.
diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP they could not rule out
the possibility that a council member could raise the issue of Russian
mercenaries working to bolster Haftar. Moscow has denied all responsibility on
that front. On Friday, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres renewed his call
for an immediate ceasefire in Libya. "Any foreign support to the warring parties
will only deepen the ongoing conflict and further complicate efforts to reach a
peaceful and comprehensive political solution," he said in a statement.
Egypt to Meet Four European Countries on Libya Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 06/2020
Egypt announced Monday that it will hold a meeting with four European
Mediterranean countries about developments in neighboring Libya after Turkey
began deploying troops in the war-torn North African nation. The talks -- to be
held in Cairo on Wednesday-- will bring together foreign ministers from France,
Italy, Greece and Cyprus, Egypt's foreign ministry said. The ministers will
tackle the "rapid developments" in Libya and "ways to push efforts to reach a
comprehensive settlement" between rival administrations there, a statement said.
Libya has seen an escalation of the turmoil that has gripped the oil-rich
country since a NATO-backed uprising that toppled and killed dictator Moammar
Gadhafi in 2011. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia back strongman
general Khalifa Haftar, who launched an offensive in April to capture Tripoli
from the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).
On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that soldiers had
begun deploying to Libya to shore up the GNA following its request for military
support. Cairo considers a military intervention in Libya a "matter of Egyptian
national security" and has vowed to quash efforts seeking "to control" over its
neighbor. It has also slammed maritime and military deals signed between Ankara
and Tripoli in November as "illegitimate".Relations between Egypt and Turkey
have been strained since general-turned-president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi led the
2013 military overthrow of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, whom Ankara
supported.
Top EU diplomat warns of ‘imminent’ Libya escalation
AFP, Brussels/Monday, 6 January 2020
The European Union’s top diplomat warned Monday that more intense fighting could
be about to break out around the Libyan capital Tripoli, calling for a political
solution to the crisis. “Recent developments in Libya indicate that an
escalation of violence around Tripoli could be imminent,” said the EU high
representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell. The UN Security Council is to
meet later Monday on the situation in Libya, where Turkish troops have begun
deploying to protect the UN-recognized government from the forces of the Libyan
National Army (LNA). On Saturday, an air strike hit a military school in the
capital, leaving at least 30 people dead, according to the health ministry of
the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). The LNA denied that it
was behind the attack. “We condemn attacks such as Saturday’s strike against the
military school, which only bring more violence and human suffering,” Borrell
said. “Today it is more urgent than ever to work genuinely towards a political
solution to the crisis in Libya,” he said. “The European Union calls on all
sides to engage in a political process under the leadership of the United
Nations. The European Union will continue to deploy all efforts towards finding
a peaceful and political solution to this process.”The North African country was
plunged into chaos with the killing of dictator Muammar Qaddafi in a 2011
NATO-backed uprising. It is now divided between the GNA and the LNA. More than
280 civilians and more than 2,000 fighters have been killed since the start of
the LNA’s operation to take Tripoli, according to the United Nations. The
fighting has displaced some 146,000 people.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 06-07/2020
Prepare for potential broad war between Iran and US – INSS
annual report
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/January 06/2020
The Institute for National Security Studies said Israel must be ready to
suddenly and fundamentally shift its strategies in each and every national
security arena.
As tensions heat up between Iran, the US and Israel following the assassination
of Qasem Soleimani last week, the absence of a stable government will harm
Jerusalem’s ability to achieve its broader national security and foreign affairs
goals, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) said in its annual
report on Monday.
This lack of stability could be highly problematic, according to the report, if
Iran and the US slip into a broader war that could engulf the region.
The report was delivered by INSS executive director Amos Yadlin to President
Reuven Rivlin on Monday. Researchers worked to add an additional, special
section ahead of the presentation that covers the implications of the
assassination of Soleimani, Iran’s IRGC Quds Force leader.
According to the report, a vast array of challenges, leading with Iran, are
confronting the country “against the backdrop of a continuing political crisis
in Israel that will make it difficult to developed updated strategies.
The report explained some of what the institute believes will be Israel's major
challenges in the near future, including that "Iran’s increased daring and
determination in the nuclear arena," as well as its attempts to establish a
presence in Syria and other areas, could provide it with "new abilities to act
against Israel."
The report also noted that “Hezbollah’s attempts to obtain a large number of
precision weapons and the efforts of Hamas to reduce the pressure on Gaza and to
impact the terms of an understanding with Israel,” are major challenges.
Seeking to negotiate a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority is mentioned in
the report, but has less prominence than other issues. For example, INSS
advocates for the Trump administration to publish its peace plan, but no top
Israeli politicians running for prime minister are pushing for this – and there
are no signs that it will be made public before mid-spring, if at all.
Regarding Iran, the report said that it is too early to know the full
repercussions of the US strike on Soleimani and on Iranian-affiliated militias
last week.
The report flags the question of whether these actions could lead to escalated
US military aggressiveness toward Iran, or whether the Trump administration was
merely hoping to act decisively in order to deter Tehran from attacking US
assets and to achieve greater quiet.
Whatever Washington's original intent was, INSS said that the situation is
currently so explosive that Israel must be ready to suddenly and fundamentally
shift its strategies in each and every national security arena in order to
maintain its security in the face of warping challenges.
The report said that Iran would most likely retaliate against US assets for the
assassination of its leader, but that American allies, like Israel and Sunni
moderate Arab states, could also find themselves under fire.
Moving to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program, the institute says
there are two possible scenarios.
The more likely scenario is that Tehran continues a slow but steady path toward
a nuclear weapon.
Following the US assassination of Soleimani, INSS views the likelihood of a new
Trump-Iran deal as much less likely, although still not impossible at some later
point.
Overall, the institute summarized the Iranian nuclear threat as less serious
than some other short-term threats in 2020, but as presenting the greatest
existential danger to Israel long-term.
INSS warns that if Israel fails to reach even a medium-term extended ceasefire
with Hamas, that the chances of a re-run of the intense 2014 Gaza War are very
high, and could happen as soon as this year.
While advocating reaching a ceasefire with Hamas, the report said that if there
was a new war with Gaza, then Israel must act more assertively and with greater
surprise against Hamas’s military assets than in the past. It said that, in the
event of war, the IDF should not reconquer Gaza, but should also look to reach a
result in which Hamas no longer is the sole ruler of coastal enclave.
In addition, the report contains sections regarding diplomacy with the US,
China, Russia and other important issues.
The institute said that Israel must invest in re-establishing itself as a
bi-partisan issue, since the American presidential race could lead to certain
Democratic candidates winning the presidency who are less personally committed
to Israel than Trump or past presidents.
In the same vein, the report advocates altering religion and state policies,
often dictated by Israel’s haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, which have harmed
Israeli relations with the mostly non-orthodox Jewish Diaspora.
Palestinians in Syria: Another Year of Death and Misery
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 06/2020
The world, including the United Nations, Europe and other international human
rights and "pro-Palestinian" organizations, have not moved to help the
Palestinians of Syria in the past nine years -- so, why should this year be any
different?
How has this terrible dismissal come to pass? Simple: Because these
Palestinians' problems cannot be blamed on Israel. They are being killed and
tortured in an Arab country, by their own brothers, and as far as the world is
concerned, as long as there is no way to hold Israel responsible, it is fine for
Arabs to commit atrocities against their Palestinian brothers.
The Arab countries have long proven that their sole interest in the Palestinians
is to use them as puppets to serve the interests of Arab dictators and corrupt
Arab regimes. The Palestinians in Syria have long known that, for them, no Arab
country is a safe haven.
The London-based Action Group for Palestinians of Syria estimated the number of
Palestinians who have died of torture in Syrian prisons at 614. Another 205
Palestinians died as a result of lack of proper medical treatment because of the
Syrian army's siege on the Yarmouk refugee camp, the group said. Pictured:
Yarmouk refugee camp, near Damascus, on May 22, 2018, days after Syrian
government forces regained control over the camp. (Photo by Louai Beshara/AFP
via Getty Images)
It appears it is going to be another bad year for the Palestinians in Syria as
they continue to face death and fall victim to various repressive measures,
including displacement, torture, and extra-judicial killings.
It is unlikely, however, that 2020 will witness any change in the international
community's attitude towards the plight of the Palestinians there. The world,
including the United Nations, Europe and other international human rights and
"pro-Palestinian" organizations, have not moved to help the Palestinians of
Syria in the past nine years -- so, why should this year be any different?
How has this terrible dismissal come to pass? Simple: Because these
Palestinians' problems cannot be blamed on Israel. They are being killed and
tortured in an Arab country, by their own brothers, and as far as the world is
concerned, as long as there is no way to hold Israel responsible, it is fine for
Arabs to commit atrocities against their Palestinian brothers.
The Palestinians of Syria have only one way to draw the international
community's attention to their plight: if they move to the West Bank or Gaza
Strip. Then, hundreds of foreign journalists and human rights organizations from
all around the world would converge and point the finger of blame at Israel.
About 58% of the Palestinians in Syria have been forced to flee their homes
since the beginning of the civil war in that country in 2011.
Translated into numbers, that means more than 370,000 Palestinians have been
displaced in just one of the Arab countries.
That figure was released earlier last week by Hassan Abdel Hamid, a senior
official with the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), a
Palestinian Marxist-Leninist secular organization belonging to the PLO.
Hamid said that 200,000 Palestinians who fled their refugee camps remain in
Syria, while the remaining 170,000 managed to escape to other countries.
He revealed that 20% of the homes in Yarmouk refugee camp, near Damascus, have
been completely destroyed during the fighting between the Syrian army and
opposition groups. Another 40% of the camp's houses require urgent renovation
because of the damage they suffered during the armed clashes, he said.
The DFLP official accused the PLO leadership and international parties,
particularly the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees
(UNRWA), of failing to "carry out their duties" towards the 560,000 Palestinians
in Syria.
Hamid's statements, published at the start of the new year, came as the number
of Palestinians killed in Syria continue to rise.
The Action Group for Palestinians of Syria (AGPS), a London-based human rights
watchdog that monitors the situation of Palestinian refugees in Syria, revealed
on the eve of the new year that the number of Palestinians killed in Syria since
2011 has reached 4,013. Some of the Palestinians were killed while fighting
alongside the Syrian army, while others were killed while fighting alongside
various opposition groups.
Many innocent civilians, caught in the crossfire, were also killed, while dozens
are reported to have died under torture in Syrian prisons and detention
facilities.
AGPS estimated the number of Palestinians who have died of torture in Syrian
prisons at 614. Another 205 Palestinians died as a result of lack of proper
medical treatment and medicine because of the Syrian army's siege on the Yarmouk
refugee camp, the group said.
Another 311 Palestinians were killed by sniper gunfire, 142 in various bombings,
92 in "extra-judicial killings" by the Syrian authorities and its proxy groups,
and 315 who were executed or died of suffocation and arson incidents. At least
52 Palestinians are believed to have drowned while trying to reach Europe.
In another disturbing revelation by AGPS, at least 18 Palestinian journalists
were killed since the outburst of deadly hostilities in Syria in March 2011.
"The casualties died while covering scenes on the battleground or while
providing civilians with relief assistance," AGPS noted.
"Facts on the ground prove that the number of casualties is much higher.
Difficulties in documentation stem from the absence of official statistics, lack
of concern regarding the number of Palestinian casualties, journalists in
particular, and the intricacy of the name-identification process. The list
includes nine journalists who died under shelling, five who were tortured to
death, and four others who were fatally shot. Scores of activists, journalists,
and correspondents have, meanwhile, been secretly locked up in Syrian government
dungeons for years."
Alarmed by the world's continuing indifference toward the plight of the
Palestinians in Syria in general and that of journalists in particular, AGPS
denounced the "apathy by the international community and Palestinian leadership
regarding the extra-judicial killing, harsh torture, and arbitrary detention" of
Palestinians in Syria. This "apathy," however is unlikely to go away of its own
accord. The Palestinians in Syria and other Arab countries are left to pray for
a miracle that would rid them of the miseries and crimes to which they are
subjected on a daily basis at the hands of their fellow Arabs. The Arab
countries have long proven that their sole interest in the Palestinians is to
use them as puppets to serve the interests of Arab dictators and corrupt Arab
regimes. The Palestinians in Syria have long known that, for them, no Arab
country is a safe haven.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a
Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Thanks to the President, U.S. Policy Heading in the Right
Direction
Majid Rafizadeh//Gatestone Institute/January 06/2020
"... you should know that I... control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq,
Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan." — The late Iranian Major General Qassem
Soleimani, to US General David Petraeus, The Guardian, July 28, 2011.
Under Soleimani's rule, Iran's military was also implicated in the 9/11 attacks.
To the likely dismay of Washington's critics, President Trump's Iran policy has
been heading in the right direction. Maximum pressure is the right policy to
bridle this predatory regime.
The unexpected death of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani should be
regarded as a severe blow to the ruling mullahs. When it comes to authority in
the Islamic Republic, Soleimani was considered Iran's second man after Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Image source: Tasnim News [CC by 4.0])
The critics of President Trump's Iran policy have been proven wrong once again:
Not only have the US sanctions imposed significant pressure on the ruling
mullahs of Iran and their ability to fund their terror groups, but in addition,
President Trump recently ordered a game-changing military attack that killed
both Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force, and
Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near the Baghdad airport.
According to the US Department of Defense, Soleimani "was actively developing
plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout
the region."
The unexpected death of Soleimani should be regarded as a severe blow to the
ruling mullahs. When it comes to authority in the Islamic Republic, Soleimani
was considered Iran's second man after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
A staunchly loyal confidante to Khamenei, Soleimani enjoyed enormous influence
over dictating the Iranian regime's foreign policy. Soleimani was not bragging
when he wrote in a message to US Gen. David Petraeus:
"... you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with
respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in
Baghdad is a Quds Force member. The individual who's going to replace him is a
Quds Force member."
Soleimani was appointed by Iran's Supreme Leader to be the head of the Quds
Force, a branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), almost two
decades ago. The Quds Force is tasked with exporting Iran's ideological,
religious and revolutionary principles beyond the country's borders.
As the leader of the Quds Force, Soleimani was in charge of extraterritorial
operations, including organizing, supporting, training, arming and financing
predominantly Shiite militia groups; launching wars directly or indirectly via
these proxies; fomenting unrest in other nations to advance Iran's ideological
and hegemonic interests; attacking and invading cities and countries; and
assassinating foreign political figures and powerful Iranian dissidents
worldwide.
The Quds Force fomented unrest in Iraq by providing deadly, sophisticated bombs,
including improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that killed many civilians and
non-civilians, including Iraqis and Americans.
Under his leadership, the Quds Force was also accused of failed plans to bomb
the Saudi and Israeli embassies in the US, and to assassinate then-Saudi
Ambassador to the US Adel Al-Jubeir. An investigation revealed that the Quds
Force was also behind the assassination of Lebanon's Sunni Prime Minister Rafiq
Hariri.
Soleimani also successfully made alliances with various terror and militia
groups including non-Shiite terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda. Under Soleimani's
rule, Iran's military was also implicated in the 9/11 attacks. US Federal Judge
George Daniels issued an order stating that Iran, its Lebanese Shiite proxy
Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda were jointly responsible for the attacks.
Iran provided "safe harbor for some Al-Qaeda leaders. The (Quds) Force's senior
leaders have longstanding ties to Al-Qaeda, and since the fall of Afghanistan,
have provided some Al-Qaeda leaders with travel documents and safe haven" said a
European intelligence analyst.
Christopher Harmer, a retired U.S. Navy Commander, told The New York Times that
Soleimani is "a more stately version of Osama Bin Laden."
Soleimani was also well-known as the Middle East's deadliest, and Iran's most
dangerous, man. He prioritized offensive tactics and operations over defensive
ones, and rejoiced in taking selfies with his troops and proxies in battlefields
in countries, including Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. He was previously
sanctioned by the US, Switzerland and the UN Security Council via Resolution
1747, and on America's Specially Designated Global Terrorists list.
He commanded roughly 20,000 Quds Force members, and in case of emergencies,
could also deploy forces from the IRGC and Basij militia. Soleimani commanded
fighters from militias that Iran supports and helped create, and hired fighters
from other countries, including Afghanistan, to fight as proxies.
Soleimani's modus operandi was anchored in creating instability in other nations
in order to advance Tehran's interests. He once declared that the unrest and
uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa "provide our (Iran's) revolution
with the greatest opportunities..."
"Today, Iran's victory or defeat no longer takes place in Mehran and
Khorramshahr. Our boundaries have expanded, and we must witness victory in
Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. This is the fruit of the Islamic revolution."
The Iranian government's hatred towards the US often seems the most important
reason for its existence. As long as the ruling mullahs remain in power, the
Islamic Republic will continue its acts of terror and deep antagonism against
Americans, their Sunni neighbors, the lands they try to control -- such as Iraq,
Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, parts of Gaza and Venezuela -- and the West.
Thanks to President Donald J. Trump, the US inflicted another significant blow
to the anti-Semitic and anti-American regime of Iran. Moreover, to the likely
dismay of Washington's critics, President Trump's Iran policy has been heading
in the right direction. Maximum pressure is the right policy to bridle this
predatory regime.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Yemen’s Houthis are poised to answer Tehran’s call for
vengeance
Fatima Abo Alasrar/Al Arabiya/January 06/2020
Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian military leader who was killed by the US in Iraq
on Friday, was so critical to the Houthi militias in Yemen that they are almost
certain to respond violently to his unexpected killing and shatter any hopes
that the global community had for peace.
Although Iran’s influence over the Houthis was conducted in the shadows,
Soleimani personally played the role of kingmaker, honing their military
capabilities and penning a political strategy that catapulted them from the
caves of Saada to power in Sanaa, the capital.
Soleimani’s steady and sure investment in the Houthis, which began as early as
2015, included advice on strategic responses to interventions by the Arab
Coalition and helped ensure their survival in power.
The Iranian commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards – Quds Force built his
network of militias across the Arab region, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or
Yemen, to be ready and capable of functioning in asymmetrical warfare at a
moments’ notice from Iran. His unexpected death will test whether the Houthis
are fully prepared.
The Houthi statements so far have been arguably more threatening than that of
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the
leader of the movement, said immediately after the attack: “Soleimani’s blood
will not be wasted.” Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, the Chairman of the so-called
Houthi Supreme Council, said the killing “demands a prompt and direct response”.
These statements are not vacuous and stand to play out in several ways.
The attack on Saudi oil facilities in September, which the Houthis falsely
claimed on behalf of Iran, demonstrates the lengths to which the militia will go
to protect Iran from culpability. Moreover, there is a consensus among analysts
that Iran will continue targeting US interests in the region, mainly in Saudi
Arabia and the UAE – which are both within Iran’s and the Houthi’s immediate
reach. If the Houthis act at Iran’s behest, they will shatter the prospects of
peace that the UN has been trying to build in Yemen.
Much of the relationship between the IRGC and the Houthis has been clandestine,
with the Houthi militia vehemently denying IRGC involvement or Soleimani’s
presence in the country in the same fashion that they denied having any
assistance from Hezbollah before videotapes emerged showing Hezbollah operatives
training Houthi militiamen.
This denial was part of the Iran-Houthi strategy in Yemen to preserve the facade
of an independent non-state actor with legitimacy and a right to
self-determination. The clandestine relationship between Iran and Yemen, at
least in the early stages, allowed Iran the plausible deniability it needed to
pursue its objectives.
Soleimani’s strategic vision for Yemen was a patient one, in which he helped the
Houthis develop their political and military capacity over time in the same way
he did with the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) militias in
Iraq.
But unlike in Syria or Iraq, where he became a very public figure of military
power taking selfies with his commanders and posting them on social media,
Soleimani remained carefully secretive and calculated in Yemen. In fact
Soleimani was not on the ground running day-to-day operations in Yemen, but had
designated a high-ranking commander in the IRGC–Quds Force, Abdul Reza Shahla’i,
to operate among the Houthi militia in Sanaa.
The US Department of the Treasury named Shahla’i as a Specially Designated
Global Terrorist in 2008 and 2011, and, by the end of 2019, the US Department of
Justice (DOJ) had put a $15 million bounty on him, which remains in effect to
this day. Shahla’i had a long history of “targeting Americans, including
planning the January 20, 2007 attack in Karbala, Iraq, which killed five
American soldiers and wounded three others,” according to the DOJ. Shahla’i also
directed a plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, DC.
Undoubtedly, the presence of this high profile IRGC commander in Yemen has
caused a significant amount of human suffering and prolonged the war to the
detriment of Yemeni people and the benefit of the Iranian regime.
Much of this complicates the prospects for peace as the Houthis remain on
standby for Tehran’s orders to avenge Soleimani’s death. The UN envoy would be
remiss to ignore these dangerous signs or to accept disingenuous statements that
they are in the search for peace or a settlement with the Arab Coalition when
they appear intent on avenging Soleimani’s death.
Soleimani and the End of the Red Lines
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January 06/2020
For the first time in decades, it is not exaggeration to say that the Middle
East is standing on the edge of a volcano. It is evident through the calls for
revenge that were launched from Tehran, Baghdad and Beirut. The unprecedented
rhetoric calls for targeting the American presence in the region and the first
battle of the war is that of forcing America out of Iraq.
The most brutal of confrontations are those in which both parties cannot back
down. Those who know of General Qassem Soleimani’s pivotal role in the Iranian
regime and its regional agenda know that this regime cannot not avenge the
murder of the man who was closest to the supreme leader. This is why Ali
Khamenei was quick to vow revenge. The Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and
secretary general of the Hezbollah party in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, were
quick to follow suit.
Iran cannot back down from avenging Soleimani. His assassination had struck at
its core, especially since the man was the guardian of complicated threads that
he patiently and stubbornly wove from Afghanistan to Lebanon, passing through
Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other arenas. Sources from the regime in Iran say that
news of Soleimani’s death was the worst Khamenei had ever received during his
long years in power. The supreme leader himself had played a role in enlarging
the exceptional halo that surrounded the general, whose actual privileges went
much farther beyond his title.
Soleimani was the architect of Iran’s major push in the region. This is no
exaggeration. No president could be elected and no government could be formed in
Lebanon without his approval. The same applies to Iraq. No one could argue
against him in Syria. It is enough to recall how he had carried maps of Syria to
President Vladimir Putin to convince Russia to intervene in the country and save
its regime. And that is what happened. It is through Soleimani’s missiles and
drones that the Houthis in Yemen continue to play the role he tasked of them.
Iran cannot back down from seeking revenge. It is obvious that it is seeking
revenge that clearly has its hallmarks. The revenge will not be carried out by
proxies and it will hold the same gravity as the strike that eliminated its most
important and popular general. Soleimani’s killing clearly had America’s
fingerprints and so the retaliation is supposed to be against the American
military itself.
On the other side of the pond, America does not appear capable of backing down.
It has gone far and it may be forced to go even farther. This is also about
America’s dignity and that of its military and security institutions and its
image in the region and world. It is also about a president who is waging an
electoral campaign.
By ordering Soleimani’s killing, Donald Trump had taken a much more difficult
decision than when he ordered the elimination of the ISIS leader or when his
predecessor Barack Obama sanctioned the elimination of the al-Qaeda leader.
Soleimani’s killing is not only directed against Iran and its institutions, but
to those “armies” that he helped raise inside several regional countries. This
is why the scope of the confrontation will be much wider than originally
believed.
Soleimani was the man of infiltrations and coups. He breached maps and organized
the coup against present balances of power. He did that in Lebanon after the
assassination of Rafik Hariri and during the 2006 war with Israel which he
followed from within Lebanese territories. He prevented the formation of a
stable Lebanese government that was friendly with the West. He also prevented
post-Saddam Hussein Iraq from establishing stable institutions that were
friendly with the West. He seized the opportunity in Iraq when ISIS emerged to
transform the “jihad” called for by Ali al-Sistani into an opportunity to arm
the Popular Mobilization Forces and turn it into an official and legitimate
force. This in turn helped further limit American influence in Iraq.
With Putin, he helped change the course of the conflict in Syria, banking on his
country’s ability to consolidate its presence in Syria – an ability it is much
more adept at than Russia. He also sponsored the Houthi coup in Yemen that is
until this very day witnessing severe resistance. He previously tried to
infiltrate Bahrain, but failed.
Soleimani was the general of infiltrations and coups. He was the engineer of
attempts to threaten several countries in the region with missile systems that
were set up in neighboring countries in order to undermine their strategic
abilities, influences their decisions and alliances. In recent months, his great
dream almost came true when he opened the route from Tehran to Beirut and which
passed through Baghdad and Damascus. During this push, which was facilitated by
the American overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Soleimani sensed that the major
obstacle in his agenda was the American thread that many countries in the region
are counting on to deter the major Iranian offensive. His great dream was to cut
this thread.
Provoking the “great Satan” is nothing new for Iran. After the Americans were
turned into hostages in their own embassy in Tehran, it moved beyond its borders
to provoke it in the region. Beirut was its favorite arena: The bombing of the
US embassy and marine headquarters and hostage-taking.
For four decades, American presidents avoided responding to Iran in Iran. The
trading of blows was limited and contained. Iran achieved a major success when
it signed the nuclear deal that did not address its regional behavior. Soleimani,
therefore, continued his policy of infiltrations and coups.
His killing coincided with a time when the Iranian economy is being crushed by
Trump’s sanctions and when Iraq and Lebanon are witnessing popular protests that
reveal some form of failure of the policies adopted in the countries of the
Iranian crescent. This is why the supreme leader is unlikely to back down.
Moreover, Soleimani’s killing in Baghdad holds its own significance. Soleimani
started his rise to power during the Iraq-Iran war. There are some who say that
he never forgave the US for preventing Iran from declaring victory in that war.
When the battles swayed in Iran’s favor, satellite images of Iranian masses were
sent to the American embassy in Cyprus and then to Baghdad, then Iraqi minister
Hamed al-Jubbouri once told me.
It is most likely that Iran underestimated Trump’s ability to take difficult
security decisions, especially after it appeared that he preferred economic
sanctions over military strikes. Perhaps Soleimani believed that his safety was
a red line that no one would dare to cross and risk war. Everyone was surprised
by Soleimani’s death. We can say that the red lines died with him. It is the
beginning of a new very hot chapter and new year in the terrible Middle East.
Qassem Soleimani's End... A Predictable Consequence of His
Recklessness
Bobby Ghosh/Bloomberg/January 06/2020
Qassem Soleimani was never going to die peacefully in his bed. As leader of the
Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and puppet-master of
militias and terrorist groups across the Middle East, he had the blood of
hundreds of thousands on his hands: Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis, Lebanese,
Palestinians, Israelis, Americans, and fellow-Iranians, among others. His death
was hoped for and prayed for by the families of his victims, and plotted by
their governments.
It is a measure of Soleimani’s brashness that he nonetheless strutted around
Baghdad in the company of other wanted mass killers, whose faces, in another
age, would be on “Wanted” posters on the walls of local post offices. It was
incautious to the point of suicidal that he should have been doing so in the
days after his most brazen stunt: the New Year’s Eve assault by his Iraqi
proxies on the US embassy in Baghdad.
Soleimani’s death-by-drone was the predictable denouement of his escalating
recklessness over the years. That his top local lackey, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,
should have perished with him is appropriate. The Iraqi had been the instrument
of Soleimani’s decision to step up rocket attacks on US bases, leading to the
trigger event of this week’s turmoil: the killing of an American contractor at a
base near the northern city of Kirkuk.
This escalation in deed matched a similar intensification in word by Soleimani’s
boss, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who goaded US President Donald Trump in the
manner guaranteed to get his goat: by taunting him on Twitter. “You can’t do
anything,” Khamenei tweeted, after Trump blamed Iran for the embassy attack.
Khamenei and Soleimani seem to have calculated that Trump would respond to their
provocations just as the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
have to progressively brazen attacks on their shipping and oil installations.
Perhaps they thought he couldn’t risk a war, or a crisis that would send oil
prices spiking, in an election year. Or perhaps they thought he simply didn’t
have the stomach for a confrontation.
Whatever their reasoning, playing chicken with the American president was a
hideous mistake. Contrary to Khamenei’s taunt, Trump could do many things,
ranging from tightening the economic sanctions that have already cost Iran
dearly, to striking Iran’s proxies, as with last Sunday’s bombing of Muhandis’s
Kataib Hezbollah. These may have been acceptable outcomes for Khamenei: After
all, a man who only weeks ago ordered the slaughter of hundreds of Iranians is
unlikely to balk at causing more pain to his own people or proxies.
But Khamenei failed to reckon with Trump’s own capacity for recklessness. Rather
than merely ratchet up sanctions, the president chose to order a drone attack
that brought a fiery end to the life and career of one of Iran’s most fearsome
and important military commanders.
What now? The cycle of recklessness that the supreme leader began leaves him
little option except to keep raising the stakes. But he must now do so without
his most effective instrument of terror, a commander distinguished for his
unquestioned obedience and apparently inexhaustible appetite for violence. Those
are qualities Khamenei will surely miss amid the mayhem he has unleashed.
World must seize opportunities offered by Soleimani’s death
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 06/2020
The fateful final journey of Qassem Soleimani — through Beirut, Damascus and,
ultimately, Baghdad airport — resembled a pilgrimage to the localities upon
which he repeatedly unleashed carnage and chaos during his 30-year tenure.
Former CIA Director David Petraeus described Soleimani’s death as “more
significant than the killing of Osama bin Laden or even the death of (Abu Bakr)
Al-Baghdadi.” In half a century of global state-sponsored terrorism, Soleimani
is without rival.
The liberal media detests US President Donald Trump, so the almost universal
reaction to Soleimani’s death was one of scandalized horror — as if the only
possible outcomes must be catastrophic. My own crystal ball is no more lucid
than that of other pundits, but this killing puts Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an
unenviable position. For personal prestige, Khamenei must retaliate, and the
word on the lips of every Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah
official is “revenge.” Even Soleimani’s grieving daughter was wheeled out to
warn “crazy Trump” that a “dark day” was coming for America and Israel.
Yet any resulting loss of American or Israeli life could trigger an
exponentially greater response, with Trump already threatening to hit 52 sites
inside Iran. Tehran’s announcement that it will no longer abide by any of the
restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal may make a military showdown with
Israel and the US inevitable. Meanwhile, the use of terrorist proxies in
unexpected locations would be unequivocally viewed as a hostile Iranian act.
Sanctions-impoverished Iran can ill afford war, and the political situation in
the preferred conflict theaters of Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq is so
precarious as to make any conflagration self-defeating. There will certainly be
cyberattacks and perhaps strikes against Gulf shipping. But, in Trump, Khamenei
faces an unnervingly irrational actor who could respond with hellfire and fury —
or may neglect to respond at all.
There is the ugly whiff of schadenfreude from European capitals, with officials
believing that Trump has brought any likely consequences upon himself. But
Tehran views British and European assets as legitimate, lower-risk targets in
strikes against the “Great Satan.” Europe must play a constructive role in
managing the fallout from Soleimani’s death, or risk getting caught in the
crossfire.
Soleimani wasn’t driven by radical religious fervor. Over the broken backs of
Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, he desired a Greater Persia bristling with
nuclear and ballistic rockets, capable of threatening America, Israel and the
Arab nations on equal terms. He and Khamenei fell for the same deranged hubris
of history’s other expansionist dictators: Adolf Hitler, Napoleon Bonaparte,
Genghis Khan, Julius Caesar and Cyrus the Great. Iran — its economy shattered by
sanctions — is succumbing to the same imperial overstretch as ancient Persia.
Its people are starving while warmongering leaders struggle to pay the wages of
overseas proxies.
Iranians have been fed decades of relentless propaganda portraying Soleimani as
a national hero who singlehandedly safeguarded and expanded the nation’s
borders. However, recent protests testify that citizens see through this facade,
denouncing him for squandering the nation’s wealth on futile, unaffordable
conflicts.
The deaths of Al-Muhandis and Soleimani leave a gaping hole in Tehran’s ability
to ideologically and politically dominate the region.
One consequence of Soleimani’s death is that his Quds Force successors won’t be
making ostentatious trips to Baghdad airport several times a month, knowing
themselves to be fair game for American or Israeli assassination operations. In
2007, when the US stepped up its operations against Shiite militants, Iran
withdrew almost all of its Quds Force personnel from Iraq. Militant leaders like
Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis and Muqtada Al-Sadr were forced to flee to Tehran. Trump
should thus capitalize on this killing to ensure that no Quds Force personnel
feel safe operating in Iraq or any other Arab capitals.
Like a Mafia don, Soleimani was arguably the most powerful player in Baghdad
because of the strong personal relations he cultivated. His word was law,
whether stipulating the appointment of a parliamentary speaker, sacking a
regional governor, ordering paramilitary deployments or extracting oil-smuggling
concessions. Iran’s threats and demands won’t cease, but can Soleimani’s
successors dream of wielding his unquestioned Machiavellian omnipotence?
Soleimani, Al-Muhandis and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hail from a
generation of militants who collaborated closely to export Iran’s revolution
throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Younger Iraqi and Lebanese militants who haven’t
spent much time in Iran are consequently often less ideologically committed to
Tehran. Young people from Hezbollah’s traditional strongholds are increasingly
challenging its self-contradictory and discredited rhetoric. The deaths of Al-Muhandis
and Soleimani thus leave a gaping hole in Tehran’s ability to ideologically and
politically dominate the region.
Baghdad is fated to be the arena of a titanic struggle for regional alignment.
But will Tehran have prevailed before anti-Iran powers even comprehend what is
at stake? Iran has already goaded its loyalists in Iraq’s Parliament to commit
to “ending the presence of all foreign troops on Iraqi soil” — regardless of the
fact that this paves the way for Daesh’s return and prompted Trump’s threat of
“very big sanctions.” Meanwhile, paramilitary assets and others on Tehran’s
payroll will be readied to play their part in striking back against Western
regional influence.
With Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi resigning, Al-Sadr’s bloc siding with the
protesters, President Barham Salih vetoing the pro-Iran choice of PM, and
Soleimani and Al-Muhandis dead, who is currently running Iraq? Iran’s proxies
are best placed to exploit this vacuum, but supporters of a sovereign and
independent Iraq must do everything in their power to challenge this.
Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani and numerous political blocs are calling for
fresh elections. The pro-Iran Fatah Alliance won only 13 percent of seats in
2018 and these forces’ role in killing hundreds of Shiite protesters inevitably
further undermines their support. Efforts to place pro-Iran figures in
government positions should be blocked. There must be urgent efforts to
demobilize Iraq’s vast paramilitary armies, which owe their primary loyalty to
Khamenei, and their $2 billion budget should be slashed.
The majority of Kurdish, Sunni and moderate Shiite political blocs desire a
lessening of Iranian interference. Without Soleimani to bully, bribe and
threaten political leaders, there is a narrow but perceptible window of
opportunity in Iraq for something like the Euromaidan Revolution, which in 2014
saw Ukraine spectacularly break away from Russian hegemony. However, just like
Ukraine, Iraq is perilously close to plunging back into conflict. Stabilizing it
as a sovereign nation and supporting constitution-based governance should be top
priorities for the international community.
The vast majority of Lebanese are horrified by the prospect of ruinous conflict
with Israel resulting from escalating tensions. Yet this sword of Damocles will
always dangle over Lebanon’s head as long as the country is politically
dominated by the “Islamic Resistance,” which has spent recent days urging death
to America and Israel. Nasrallah refrained from specifically threatening Israel,
stressing instead that US military assets were “fair targets” and American
soldiers would “go home in coffins.” These explosive dynamics leave Lebanon
dangerously vulnerable and in urgent need of international support to overturn a
hated sectarian system that perpetuates Iranian dominance, despite a majority of
Christian, Sunni, Druze and moderate factions.
Nevertheless, I am pessimistic that US, European and Arab decision-makers have
the requisite awareness and readiness to engineer such a dramatic
transformation. The US Embassy in Baghdad’s capacities have declined from 2,000
diplomats to a pitiful 10 political officers. Trump’s recent measures against
Iran occurred in a strategic vacuum, and his distaste of traditional diplomatic
methods reduces the chances of multilateral action. The potential benefits of
Soleimani’s elimination risk being tragically squandered.
We should furthermore hope that Soleimani’s death is a moment for Iranian
soul-searching. Is the demise of the architect of Iran’s regional ambitions not
a lesson in the ruinous consequences of seeking to dominate far-flung
territories beyond their borders? Perhaps the best form of defense is not to be
an aggressor in the first place.
We can agree with Nasrallah that Soleimani’s death marks a “decisive moment and
new phase” for the region; perhaps no less earth-shattering than the events of
9/11. However, instead of terrorizing ourselves over the worst-possible
scenarios of how Khamenei may choose to respond, we would be wise to act
decisively in support of the best-possible outcomes — enhanced regional
stability and the curtailment of Tehran’s hegemonic ambitions.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Daring US interventions increase chances of Iran talks
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/January 06/2020
The US has recently taken two decisive steps that could change the course of
events in the region and bring Iran to the negotiating table. On Dec. 29, it
attacked several facilities in Iraq and Syria belonging to Kata’ib Hezbollah,
the group that had previously sent a barrage of rockets into a Kirkuk military
base housing US, Iraqi and coalition forces, killing an American contractor and
injuring several troops. Then, on Friday, a US drone killed Qassem Soleimani,
the head of the Quds Force and mastermind of Iran’s regional activities.
Those two major developments were surprising because they came after months of
American restraint in responding to Iran’s provocations. They were also
remarkable because they were unusually robust and daring in confronting Iran
directly.
This kind of action was needed to disabuse Iran of the notion that there were no
consequences for its brazen attacks on international shipping and oil
facilities, and its belief that it could shape the future of Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon and Yemen at will and with maximum violence when needed.
But, to be effective, the US military pressure has to be sustained in case Iran
responds with force. In addition, military pressure has to be accompanied by
economic pressure and diplomacy. It is an axiom of foreign policy that
diplomatic efforts not backed by credible pressure are ineffective, and it is
equally true that military success can produce the desired results only when
combined with diplomacy, which can translate it into political advantage.
Degrading Kata’ib Hezbollah and eliminating Soleimani are good examples of
pressure that could work, if combined with diplomacy. They also have to be seen
as being part of a long-term strategy with clear goals, and not just random or
isolated events in reaction to a particular provocation, such as the death of
the American contractor in Kirkuk.
With Soleimani out of the way, the more radical elements that he represented
could be weakened.
Negotiations are the only sustainable option to resolve the standoff between
Iran and the US (in addition to Gulf partners and indeed the rest of the world).
Ironically, Iran may be more willing to sit at the table as a result of the US’
robust reactions in Iraq. Iran escalated for years, especially during 2019, with
little pushback from the US or anybody else. As such, it had no incentive to
negotiate and nothing to lose by being belligerent and unresponsive to calls for
negotiations.
With this kind of response from the US, if sustained, Iran may see the value of
negotiating instead of bludgeoning its way through the region. Appeasement and
turning a blind eye failed to curb Iran’s appetite for regional adventurism,
epitomized by Soleimani’s brazen actions.
Some observers have noted the outpouring of support for Soleimani after his
death and conclude that Iran is only interested in taking revenge against the US
or its Gulf partners. However, much of that support for Soleimani is
orchestrated and could be turned off by the regime if it wanted. Momentary
bluster over his death should not be confused with the regime’s long-term
interests. Despite staged mourning processions, the general was an embarrassment
to many reasonable Iranians, including some moderate leaders.
For many others, Soleimani was instrumental in the violent suppression of
peaceful dissent at home and a warmonger abroad. He was a designated terrorist
and an unindicted war criminal in light of the atrocities he masterminded in
Syria and elsewhere. Obviously, those opposed to Soleimani in Iran could not
express their views or stage demonstrations to show their feelings toward him.
With Soleimani out of the way, the more radical elements that he represented
could be weakened.
Other observers take the vote on Sunday by the Iraqi Parliament as another sign
that the US’ actions have backfired and made negotiations even harder to start.
But the vote was largely symbolic. The Parliament merely asked the government to
“seek” to end the presence of foreign forces in Iraq, without specifying which
forces. It was clear from the remarks of Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi before
the assembly that he was also sending a message to Iran-supported militias when
he said that the Iraqi state has the exclusive right to possess and use arms and
that, if a group wants to play a political role, it has to give up its weapons.
Thus the Parliament’s vote should not be taken as binding legislation but as an
expression of frustration. There was limited support for that vote in any case,
as important political blocs had boycotted the session.
The sentiment in both Iran and Iraq should not then preclude negotiations, which
US President Donald Trump has called for repeatedly in the past but Iranian
leaders have rejected. It is true that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has refused
dialogue with the US and he repeated that rejection after Soleimani’s death.
However, what is needed is negotiations focused on a specific issue, according
to commonly shared guiding principles, not an open-ended dialogue. The
negotiations do not have to be with the US alone, but with multiple parties.
In its correspondence with Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council has articulated
those guiding principles, emphasizing adherence to the UN Charter, which means
respect for national borders, political independence and the territorial
integrity of neighboring states, as well as non-interference in their internal
affairs. Those principles also include refraining from using force or sectarian
strife to achieve political goals.
To advance this ambitious goal of political negotiations over the issues that
preoccupy Iran’s neighbors, the US has to stay the course of maximum pressure,
while combining it with diplomacy that has clear goals and payoffs for good
behavior. To get popular support for the administration’s aims, diplomacy has to
start at home, despite the difficulties of the political season. US allies and
partners, some of whom are still skeptical, also have to be engaged and asked to
support a negotiation process with Iran.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council’s assistant
secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for
Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily
represent those of the GCC. Twitter: @abuhamad1
The view from Tehran: Soleimani's death is just the
beginning
Abbaspur Mohammadi/Ynetnews/January 06/2020
Opinion: A Tehran-based journalist believes the world is not a better since the
U.S. killing of the top Iranian commander, claiming the regime's retaliation to
the assassination will only make region more unstable
I've had a strange feeling since Qassem Soleimani was assassinated by the United
States early Friday morning. I spent that day sitting at my home in Tehran. A
day later, I finally stepped outside but only for just a few minutes.
From our perspective, this killing changed many things and I foresee some
developments on the Iranian front.
I cannot say what these developments will be, because decisions are made in back
rooms by a very small group of people. It seems to me, however, that Iran is not
declaring war nor is it preparing for war with the United States.
Although these decision-makers are preparing a retaliation for the targeted
killing, it will happen at a time and a place convenient for them. It may be in
the coming months or even in the coming years.
Iranians are patient people. There is also the element of surprise to consider.
The assassination of Soleimani can be seen from very different perspectives. The
leadership here understands how to market his death to the masses.
U.S. President Donald Trump, on the other hand, views Iran as one homogenous
block and does not differentiate between the religious and military
establishment and the average Iranian. He never addressed the average man who is
intelligent and knowledgeable of world events.
Soleimani was considered a hero by all parts of society.
Even though he was part of the military establishment, he made sure to always be
seen with regular soldiers in the field, breaking bread with them and embracing
them. The regular man on the street respects these expressions of comradery.
I don't know much about Soleimani's replacement, Esmail Ghaani. He always kept
out of the public eye, unlike his predecessor, but conservative
Esmail Ghaani who has replaced slain Qasem Suleimani
Israel is implicated by many in the assassination. That is why the Israeli flag
was burned alongside the American one in the mass rallies following the killing.
The conservatives allege that Israel may have provided intelligence or tried to
enlist people to work with the Americans.
The assassination was a long-planned, top-secret operation so there is little
question in Iran that Israel was involved. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
hinted that "something big" was going to happen in the region even before news
of the killing broke in Washington.
I have no doubt Iran will retaliate against American targets in the region.
Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah said in his speech on Sunday that such
targets can be found anywhere in the Middle East (echoing the sentiments of one
Iranian official who mentioned Tel Aviv specifically).
Iran will decide where and when to strike, but its proxies will surely act
independently and attack Israeli targets as well, which will certainly
complicate things further.
You can see the Iranian regime has barely mentioned Israel by name since the
killing in an effort to push its fight with the Jewish State to a later date.
As far as the big picture is concerned, Iran's main goal is to push the U.S. out
of the region. They began in Syria, moved on to Iraq and will implement the same
policy in Lebanon next.
Peace and stability are not in the cards in the foreseeable future. I am afraid
and pessimistic about the future.
Abbaspur Mohammadi is a journalist from Tehran. The column was facilitated with
the help of Dr. Yossi Mansharof of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and
Security.
European powers keen to de-escalate US-Iran conflict
Chris Doyle/Arab News/January 06/2020
The global commentariat has mused and opined on nearly every aspect of the
possible implications of the killing of Qassem Soleimani. How will Iran react
and when? Will the US take further action? Was President Donald Trump right to
make this call and is there some camouflaged, joined-up, well-tested strategy
lurking behind this latest move? What will be the impact on Iraq, Iraqis, Syria
and Syrians?
Yet one actor barely examined is Europe. How will the European powers react? It
says something about where Europe is on the geopolitical ladder in 2020 that
this triggers such little interest or comment. Yet is it to the globe’s
advantage that Europe is on the periphery?
It is not as if European actors have no interests or even that they are not
worried. “World War III” was trending on Twitter in Europe too — a sign of the
massive over-dramatization of the events in Iraq, serious as they are. Oil
prices went up by $3 a barrel after the strike. Leaders must know by now that 30
percent of the world’s oil tanker traffic passes through the Strait of Hormuz —
a shipping lane that Iran can easily block or disrupt. EU states will also be
concerned about the impact on the struggle with Daesh, especially if the Iraqi
government endorses its Parliament’s demand for foreign forces to leave the
country.The US administration hardly drew breath before making its displeasure
with European states public. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was barely
diplomatic when saying: “The Europeans haven’t been as helpful as I wish that
they could be. The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that
what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well.”
This is not how most European leaders see it. They blame the US for having
triggered the crisis in the first place by tearing up the Iran nuclear deal of
2015. Their vain hope that a different US president could relaunch the deal in
2021 has effectively been dashed. The killing of Soleimani is seen broadly as an
attack carried out on the whim of a president who tends to act on his gut
feelings. Trump reportedly once told his generals: “You don’t need a strategy to
kill people.”
Few in the European corridors of power believe the US claim that Soleimani was
“actively developing plans to attack US diplomats and service members in Iraq
and throughout the region.” They remember 2003 and the misleading US-UK tales of
Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and will want to see hard, unimpeachable
evidence, especially if the situation deteriorates.
None of this means that European actors are blinkered about Iran’s provocations
and destabilizing activities or that Soleimani did not have oceans of blood on
his hands. It is not about being on one side or the other. Most states want to
be close to the US but find it hard with a president who not does consult, take
advice or prepare effectively. They want the reassurance of knowing a cool head
is calling the shots.The US administration hardly drew breath before making its
displeasure with European states public
The primary goal is to seek de-escalation and avoid war at all costs — a
position summed up by British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who said: “We have
always recognized the aggressive threat posed by the Iranian Quds Force led by
Qassem Soleimani. Following his death, we urge all parties to de-escalate.
Further conflict is in none of our interests.”
Tellingly, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on holiday in the Caribbean and
made no effort to rush back. Staying away meant avoiding the British media,
which was desperate for him either to chastise Trump or be seen as his poodle.
Johnson cannot afford to alienate the thin-skinned White House occupant while he
so badly needs a free trade deal with the US. His first statement on his return
on Sunday took the middle ground, not unequivocally backing Trump or criticizing
him. This was part of the gradual shaping of the British position, with Raab
having told the BBC on Sunday that he understood the American action, though
notably he did not use the word “support.”
Britain could be expected to be the most supportive, so one can just imagine how
the German political establishment sees this; or President Emmanuel Macron of
France, who has worked so diligently to bring Iran and the US to the negotiating
table. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted bluntly: “The US military
operation followed a series of dangerous provocations by Iran. However, this
action has not made it easier to reduce tensions. I made this point clearly to
Pompeo as well.” Maas wants to engage Iran in direct talks.
The EU’s new foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has invited Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif to Brussels for talks. Is this the only European
play? How can European powers convince Iran to hold back? Do they have any cards
up their sleeve? Many in the Iranian leadership have grown tired of unfulfilled
EU promises to find ways around the tough US sanctions regime.
Europe has few options. Close ties with the US mean its approach cannot ignore
Washington, but, at the same time, it cannot influence the current president. It
can attempt to remain the guarantor for the existing nuclear deal but, in all
likelihood, another may need negotiating. The probability is that most states
will hunker down, plead for peace and de-escalation, and cross their fingers,
knowing that, while observing from the sidelines, they will also be affected by
the ramifications of any conflict.
• Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British
Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech
ICC takes legal push against Israel to a new level
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/January 06/2020
Fatou Bensouda, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC),
has at long last come to the long-anticipated conclusion that “all the statutory
criteria under the Rome Statute for the opening of an investigation (into
alleged war crimes by Israel in the Occupied Territories) have been met.”
Bensouda’s verdict has been in the making for a long time and should, frankly,
have come much sooner. The ICC’s preliminary investigations into Israeli war
crimes began back in 2015. Since then, many more crimes have been committed,
while the international community has persisted with its moral inertia.
The ICC statement, issued on Dec. 20, asserted that the court saw “no
substantial reasons to believe that an investigation would not serve the
interests of justice.” But can the “interests of justice” be served while the US
government continues to wield a massive stick, using its diplomatic, political
and financial clout to ensure Israel emerges unscathed from its latest legal
scuffle?
There is little doubt that Michael Lynk, the UN special rapporteur for the
situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories, was absolutely right
when he said that a formal ICC investigation into war crimes in Palestine was a
“momentous step forward in the quest for accountability.” He was also correct in
his assessment — published on the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights website — that “accountability has, until now, been largely missing in
action throughout the 52-year-old occupation.”
I would go even further and expand the timeline of the missing accountability to
include the two decades prior to the Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem, the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Otherwise, how is one to account for the ethnic
cleansing of Palestine in 1947-48, the numerous massacres and other wanton
killings that accompanied and followed those defining years, or the fact that
Israel was never held accountable for its violations of international and
humanitarian laws between 1948 and 1967?
That issue notwithstanding, the Palestinian Authority and all political parties
in Palestine should exploit this unprecedented opportunity to hold Israel
accountable.
All political parties in Palestine should exploit this unprecedented opportunity
to hold Israel accountable.
As soon as the ICC issued its statement, reports conveyed a sense of “panic”
among Israel’s leaders. The Times of Israel reported that an Israeli government
meeting to discuss the ICC decision was held shortly after the announcement with
the aim of considering a proper response, including the possibility of
preventing ICC investigators from reaching Israel. This is eerily familiar.
Israel has denied entry to — or refused to cooperate with — international
investigators and observers on many occasions in the past.
Following a planned UN investigation into alleged Israeli war crimes in the
Palestinian refugee camp of Jenin in 2002, the Israeli government moved quickly
and, sadly, succeeded in blocking the investigation altogether. It has done this
time and again, often demonizing the individuals entrusted with examining the
illegality of its behavior in the context of international law. Well-respected
judges and international law experts, such as Richard Goldstone, Richard Falk
and John Dugard, were vehemently attacked by Israeli officials and media and, by
extension, the US government and media too.
Israel has managed to survive dozens of UN resolutions and countless legal
reports and indictments by the UN and its affiliated organizations, largely
because of blind and unequivocal American support, which has shielded Israeli
war criminals from ever answering for their horrific actions in Palestine.
“Remember, it was (then-Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton who took pride in
the fact that she personally killed the Goldstone report,” said US author Norman
Finkelstein in a recent interview with the news website Mondoweiss. The
Goldstone report was commissioned in the wake of the Israeli war on Gaza in
2008-09. A campaign of intimidation and pressure on Goldstone personally forced
the once-respected judge to retract his accusations of Israeli war crimes and
the deliberate targeting of civilians.
While Clinton played a part in torpedoing the Goldstone report, former US
President Barack Obama also went to great lengths to “neutralize international
law against settlements and other Israeli crimes in the Occupied Territories,”
according to Finkelstein. Worse still, in 2016 Obama handed Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — himself accused of carrying out numerous war
crimes against Palestinians — the largest US aid package to a foreign country in
modern history, a whopping $38 billion over 10 years.
This is not a new phenomenon, whereby the US enables Israeli crimes and
simultaneously shields Tel Aviv from any accountability before the international
community. All US administrations, whether Republican or Democrat, have honored
the same sinister policy, thus ensuring that Israel quite literally gets away
with murder.
A particular case in point was in 2001, when 28 Palestinian and Lebanese
survivors of the 1982 Sabra and Shatila massacre attempted to try, in a Belgian
court, late Israeli leader and accused war criminal Ariel Sharon. Intense
American pressure and a brazen intimidation campaign against the Belgian
government and its judicial system resulted in the dismissal of the case in
2003. To deny Israel’s victims any further opportunities to seek justice in the
country, Belgium subsequently revised its laws to the satisfaction of Israel and
the US.
However, the high level of the current ICC investigation moves the legal push
against Israel to a whole new level. This is uncharted territory for Israel, the
US, Palestine, the ICC and the international community as a whole. There is
little doubt that joint Israeli-American efforts are already underway to develop
strategies aimed at countering, if not altogether dismissing, the ICC
investigation.
It is clear that justice for Palestinians in the face of Israeli aggression —
itself fueled by unconditional American support — is not possible if it is not
accompanied by regional and international agreement that a clear and decisive
decision by all parties concerned that Israel must, once and for all, pay for
its military occupation, racist apartheid laws, protracted siege on Gaza and the
many massacres in between.
Without this kind of international will, the ICC investigation could become
another sad case of justice denied — an unacceptable option for any
justice-seeking individual, organization or government anywhere in the world.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. His
latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London).
Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter:
@RamzyBaroud