LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 04/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I will remember their sins and their lawless deeds no more. Where there is forgiveness of these, there is no longer any offering for sin.
Letter to the Hebrews 10/11-18: "Every priest stands day after day at his service, offering again and again the same sacrifices that can never take away sins. But when Christ had offered for all time a single sacrifice for sins, ‘he sat down at the right hand of God’, and since then has been waiting ‘until his enemies would be made a footstool for his feet.’For by a single offering he has perfected for all time those who are sanctified. And the Holy Spirit also testifies to us, for after saying, ‘This is the covenant that I will make with them after those days, says the Lord: I will put my laws in their hearts, and I will write them on their minds’, he also adds, ‘I will remember their sins and their lawless deeds no more.’ Where there is forgiveness of these, there is no longer any offering for sin."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 03-04/19
Nizar Zakka’s Family Says Iran Could Torture him to Death
Fresh ideas rekindle hope for Cabinet
Lebanon resumes efforts to form government
GLC's Asmar meets Kataeb delegation
Al-Rahi Tells Hizbullah Delegation Their Party is Blocking Govt.
Khalil Meets Hariri, Warns No Funds for Ministries if No Govt.
Govt. May be Formed 'by Week's End or Next Week'
Bassil Suggests '36-Minister Government'
Berri, interlocutors tackle overall situation
Sami Gemayel Renews Call for Government of Specialists as Country Reached 'Dreadful' Level
Loyalty to Resistance calls on Lebanon to invite Syria to Arab Economic Summit
Khalil visits Hariri: Some ministries could run out of funds in a month
Rahi meets Maronite Cultural Center Administrative Board
Machnouk, Fahed tackle judicial affairs
Guidanian visits GLC, voices support to strike
Ibrahim, Del Col tackle South border situation
Reactions In Syrian Regime, Hizbullah Circles To U.S. Withdrawal From Syria: Between Sense Of Victory For The Resistance Axis And Fear Of An American-Turkish Conspiracy

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 03-04/19
US warns Iran against space launches, ballistic missiles
Jailed Iranian-British charity worker goes on hunger strike in Tehran prison
Syria: Rebel-Militant Clashes Kill Dozens
New Pentagon chief discusses Syria with Pompeo
UK foreign minister Hunt: Syria’s Assad will be around for a while
Rouhani: We Will Continue Exporting Oil, Derivatives
Sisi Launches Initiative to Support Egypt’s ‘Most Needy’
Tunisia: Two Terrorists Blew Themselves Up in Clashes with Security Personnel
Israeli Public Security Minister Reduces Prisoners' Water Supply
Iraqis Enraged as MP Filmed Illegally Firing Gun in Air
Syria is 'Sand and Death,' Trump Says
Leader of France's 'Yellow Vests' Arrested
Turkey, Iraq will deepen cooperation in fight against terrorism, Erdogan says
Death toll rises to 38 from building collapse in Russia
Migrant deaths in the Mediterranean decreased in 2018, UN agency says

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 03-04/19
Fresh ideas rekindle hope for Cabinet/Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star/January 03/19
Reactions In Syrian Regime, Hizbullah Circles To U.S. Withdrawal From Syria: Between Sense Of Victory For The Resistance Axis And Fear Of An American-Turkish Conspiracy/MEMRI/January 03/18
Coming soon, believe it or not -- Islamic Party of Ontario/Tarek Fatah/Toronto Sun/December 03/19
A Call to Whom It May Concern…to All Arabs/Amr Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/January 03/19
My Predictions for 2019/Stephen Carter/Bloomberg/January 03/19
Foreign Policy Should Not Get Lost in Israel’s Election Campaign
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross/The Washington Institute/Yediot Aharonot/January 2, 2019
Policy dilemmas cloud NATO’s future/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/January 03/19
US no longer the world’s policeman/Nathalie Goulet/Arab News/January 03/19
Is this the beginning of the end for Sudan’s Omar Bashir/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 03/19
A lesson in humility and the final bullet/Ghassan Charbel//Al Arabiya/January 03/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 03-04/19
Nizar Zakka’s Family Says Iran Could Torture him to Death
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/The family of Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese citizen imprisoned in Iran, has expressed fears that he could die under torture, after it had not been able to reach him for more than three weeks. “Almost three weeks have passed since our last contact with our son Nizar after it was revealed that the Revolutionary Guards had taken him from his detention in (Tehran's) Evin Prison to one of their private jails for questioning,” the family said in a statement on Wednesday. Zakka, who also holds permanent residency in the US, was arrested in 2015 after traveling to Iran to attend a state-sponsored conference. At the time of his arrest, Zakka was the secretary-general of international NGO IJMA3, and had received an official invitation to visit Iran. The family statement said the Guards have tortured Zakka to extract confessions from him on his alleged collaboration against the state. “Despite all types of torture he is being subjected to, Nizar is still resisting,” it said, criticizing the Lebanese embassy in Tehran for not playing a role in ending his torment. It also held the Iranian authorities fully responsible for his torture, which it said, could lead to his murder. The family renewed its criticism to the authorities in Beirut, saying they are not doing enough to secure the release of a Lebanese citizen.

Fresh ideas rekindle hope for Cabinet
Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star/January 03/19
BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri have agreed on a roadmap aimed at speeding up the formation of a new government ahead of an Arab economic summit scheduled in Beirut later this month, political sources said Wednesday. Aoun and Hariri also discussed during their meeting Tuesday a formula that could lead to resolving the problem of representing six Hezbollah-backed Sunni MPs in the new government, the last remaining hurdle to the formation, a political source familiar with the formation process told The Daily Star.
“Aoun and Hariri have agreed on accelerating steps designed to form a new government before the Arab economic summit,” the source said. He added that Lebanese leaders are coming under pressure to form a new Cabinet ahead of the 2019 Arab Economic and Social Development summit slated to be held in Beirut on Jan. 19-20. According to the source, Aoun and Hariri discussed, among other things, a proposal to represent the six Sunni lawmakers from the president’s share with a candidate from outside their group, known as the “Consultative Gathering.” “While this candidate will exclusively represent the Consultative Gathering and be part of the president’s share, he will not belong to the Strong Lebanon bloc,” the source said, referring to the Free Patriotic Movement’s parliamentary bloc headed by FPM leader and caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil.
The Aoun-Hariri talks on the Cabinet impasse on the first day of the new year have moved the stalled formation efforts into full gear, a source at Baabda Palace said, referring to a meeting held Wednesday between the premier-designate and Bassil. Bassil said he presented Hariri with “several ideas” to help break Cabinet formation deadlock, now in its eighth month.
“We discussed several ideas with the prime minister and we agreed to continue efforts and necessary contacts with all those concerned with this issue [Cabinet formation]. We will later meet to evaluate the issue,” Bassil told reporters after the more than two-hour meeting with Hariri at the latter’s Downtown residence. “We have begun work on the Cabinet issue which is the compulsory pathway for any productive and useful work for the country,” he said. “We will spare no means or idea to present them. There are many ideas.”
The FPM leader had been blamed for thwarting an initiative launched by Aoun last month to resolve the issue of representing the six MPs from outside the Future Movement.
Last month, the six MPs withdrew their support for Jawad Adra, one of four candidates they proposed, because they said he did not consider himself as the sole representative of the group.
Bassil reportedly wanted Adra to be part of the Strong Lebanon bloc, while the six MPs insisted that Adra or any other candidate they name should exclusively represent the Consultative Gathering.
Hariri, who visited Aoun Tuesday to offer his holiday greetings, said he and the president are determined to form the government as soon as possible. He warned that a government needs to be formed as Lebanon faces a difficult economic situation after months of political gridlock.
“We are very late in forming a government. We must form the government. The president and I are determined to do so. We will meet again and finish this issue as soon as possible because the country cannot continue without a government,” Hariri said after meeting Aoun at Baabda Palace. Hariri called on all the political parties to be “humble” in their demands in order to facilitate the Cabinet formation. “There is only one hurdle that should be resolved so that we begin work,” he said, referring to the six MPs’ representation issue that has held up the Cabinet formation since October. “There are many projects that must be implemented. The economic situation is difficult, but this is not to say it is impossible. There are many solutions, many projects and also many reforms that we can carry out,” Hariri added, expressing hope that the government would be formed before the Arab Economic Summit.
But Speaker Nabih Berri, apparently frustrated with the delay in the Cabinet formation, suggested that Hariri’s caretaker government meet to pass the 2019 draft state budget. Berri spoke during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his Ain al-Tineh residence.
“Speaker Berri spoke about the possibility of the outgoing government meeting to approve the budget,” MP Ali Bazzi from Berri’s parliamentary bloc said after the meeting. In 2017 and 2018, the outgoing government endorsed Lebanon’s first budget since 2005, but has yet to pass the 2019 budget. According to Bazzi, Berri compared the current political situation to that of 1969, when the caretaker government under Rashid Karami passed a budget because it was considered an “urgent” matter. Bazzi quoted Berri as saying the only solution to the country’s political and economic problems was through the creation of “a civilian state” to replace the sectarian-based ruling system.
Meanwhile, a senior Hezbollah official said he expected a new government would be formed soon, while reiterating the party’s support for a ministerial seat to the six MPs. “We expect the government formation soon because the intentions of everyone are positive and in favor of the nation, especially amid the repeated Israeli threats and violations and the Lebanese people’s pain [over worsening economic conditions],” Mahmoud Qomati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s Political Council, told reporters after holding talks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai on the Cabinet crisis. Qomati led a Hezbollah delegation to extend the party’s holiday greetings to Rai.
Qomati said he assured the patriarch that all those concerned with the Cabinet formation are serious in forming it. “There is no external obstacle,” he said, adding that the issue of representing the six MPs that had delayed the Cabinet formation was being tackled now. Qomati also stressed that Hezbollah’s relationship with Aoun and the FPM was “solid,” a week after the president seemed to accuse Hezbollah of creating “new traditions” in the Cabinet formation. He added that Hezbollah did not mind Aoun and the FPM being allocated 11, 12 or 13 ministers that would grant them a veto power in a 30-member

Lebanon resumes efforts to form government
Najla Houssari/January 03, 2019/Gebran Bassil, visited Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Wednesday and said he presented Hariri with “ideas, and we will not lack the means or ideas to form a government.”
BEIRUT: With the end of the holiday period, Lebanese politicians have revived efforts to form a government before the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit in Beirut on Jan. 16-18. The Maronite Patriarchate’s media spokesman Walid Ghayyad told Arab News that the Hezbollah delegation that visited Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi on Wednesday to congratulate him on Christmas “reflected a positive atmosphere toward the process of forming a government.”Ghayyad declined to discuss the details “for fear of spoiling things,” adding: “We don’t want to engage in analysis, but all that can be said is that the ways out were discussed.”Mahmoud Qamati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, said the delegation told Al-Rahi that “all those involved in forming the government are serious about it and there are no external obstacles.” Qamati added: “We expect the formation of the government soon because the intentions of all parties are positive and in the interest of the nation.”The leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, visited Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Wednesday and said he presented Hariri with “ideas, and we will not lack the means or ideas to form a government.”“There are ideas put forward to allow all parties to share the solution to the problem. We also discussed several ideas related to the formation of a government, and agreed that I would complete my contacts with the concerned parties and then communicate again.”Abdul Rahim Murad, spokesman for six Hezbollah-allied Sunni MPs, said no one had contacted them yet about the suggested solutions. “I don’t think Hezbollah will relinquish its support for us,” he said.

Lebanon: Calls for General Strike on Friday… Deputy Warns Against Chaos
Beirut- Sanaa Al-Jack/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/Beirut and some Lebanese regions are awaiting a new strike by unions and popular movements on Friday to protest the deteriorating economic situation and the failure of politicians to form a government. Street protests began on December 23, but without targeting a particular political party or being adopted by a movement of a specified political or social affiliation. A group of Lebanese, particularly supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement and President Michel Aoun, considered the move to be suspicious and aimed at exerting pressure on the president. “People express their pain, no matter who calls for the protest,” says Mohammad Nasrallah, a member of the Development and Liberation bloc, which is headed by Speaker Nabih Berri. “They are right; because Lebanon is falling apart with the deteriorating services…” According to the head of the “Movement for Change”, Lawyer Elie Mahfoud, “the demonstrations in Lebanon made no difference except for the March 14 demonstration in 2005, which led to the withdrawal of the Syrian forces from Lebanon following the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.”He explained that the lack of participation of the majority of the main parties “makes these small gatherings incapable of achieving a demand through the street. The deteriorating economic situation did not motivate people to take to the streets and drag their party leaders behind them.” “These demonstrations are not entirely innocent,” Mahfouz noted, “as if a hidden hand was moving to show how much President Aoun’s tenure has collapsed.” On the other hand, Nasrallah pointed out that the formation of the government would be accompanied by the “imposition of new taxes to secure revenues for the treasury and alleviate the current deficit, which will exacerbate the suffering of citizens and pave the way for chaos unless things are resolved.

GLC's Asmar meets Kataeb delegation
Thu 03 Jan 2019 /NNA - Head of the General Labor Confederation (GLC), Beshara Asmar, on Thursday welcomed Kataeb Party chief MP Samy Gemayel, accompanied by a delegation. On emerging, Asmar said that tomorrow's public strike, called forth by the GLC, aim to push for an immediate government formation, stressing that the strike in no way targets any specific side. "We stand at equal distance from all sides," Asmar said, adding that the GLC cooperates with all. Asmar urged all political officials to cooperate for the sake of the government formation. MP Gemayel, for his part, deprecated the catastrophic measures adopted by the political class in the past years, which in his words, have led to this unwanted state of affairs. The Lawmaker also voiced support to the GLC in quest to set matters right, stressing the need to avoid politicizing strike.

Al-Rahi Tells Hizbullah Delegation Their Party is Blocking Govt.
Naharnet/January 03/19/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi openly told a Hizbullah delegation during a meeting on Wednesday that their party is to blame for the ongoing delay in the cabinet formation process, a media report said. “Al-Rahi was frank in his discussions with the Hizbullah delegation and he held the party responsible for the obstruction,” al-Hayat newspaper reported on Thursday. “In a lengthy conversation, he criticized the disrespect of the constitution, the invention of norms that delay the cabinet’s formation and the carelessness towards the dire economic and social situations,” the daily said. The Hizbullah delegation meanwhile defended its party’s stance and blamed Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri for “not taking seriously the issue of representing the six Sunni MPs from the very beginning.”

Khalil Meets Hariri, Warns No Funds for Ministries if No Govt.
Naharnet/January 03/19/Caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil held talks Thursday with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and warned that it will not be possible to provide funds for several ministries should the new government be delayed for another month.
“The idea of convening the (caretaker) cabinet to discuss and pass the state budget is not to challenge anyone and we’re not in a disagreement with PM-designate Hariri over this issue, but it needs further studying and consultations although we believe that it is constitutional,” said Khalil after the Center House meeting. “A resigned cabinet can limit its caretaker activity to a narrow level for a month or two, but since the cabinet formation process has protracted and consumed a lot of time, we can rely on a precedent that took place under PM Rashid Karami’s government,” Khalil said. He added: “Because if the government formation process takes another month, we might not be able to provide funds for several ministries and we would then be obliged to find ways to secure them.”

Govt. May be Formed 'by Week's End or Next Week'
Naharnet/January 03/19/The new government could be formed by the end of the week or next week, sources close to the Baabda Palace said. “The bilateral meeting between President Michel Aoun and the PM-designate pushed for speeding up the government formation process,” the sources told al-Hayat newspaper in remarks published Thursday.The president is “not worried amid the parties’ desire to reach a solution,” the sources added. “The indications are expected to surface over the next 48 hours amid talk that the government solution could emerge by the end of the week or next week,” the sources went on to say.

Bassil Suggests '36-Minister Government'
Naharnet/January 03/19/Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil has raised with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri the idea of forming a 36-minister cabinet, a media report said.Sources informed on Bassil’s meeting with Hariri on Wednesday said the FPM chief presented five proposals to the PM-designate, including raising the number of ministers to 32 or 36. Hariri “categorically” rejected the enlarged cabinet proposal, the sources told al-Akhbar newspaper in remarks published Thursday. Bassil also proposed anew Jawad Adra for the sixth Sunni seat in the government, “promising to discuss his nomination with Hizbullah and that he would belong to both the Consultative Gathering and the Strong Lebanon bloc,” the daily added.“FPM sources have declined to confirm or deny this,” it said.

Berri, interlocutors tackle overall situation
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday welcomed at his Ain Tineh residence Vice Speaker Elie Firzli, with whom he discussed the current situation. On emerging, Firzli said that they held a tour d'horizon on the current deliberations concerning the government formation issue. Firzli said they saw eye to eye over the need to swiftly form a new government as a compulsory gateway to extricate out of the current ordeal sustained in the country. On the other hand, Berri met with Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, who came in the company of a delegation of the army command. The delegation extended greetings to the Speaker on the New Year. The visit was an occasion to discuss the current security situation and affairs related to the military institution. Berri also welcomed the new Korean Ambassador to Lebanon, Yong Dae Kwon, who came on a courtesy visit. The Speaker received a congratulatory cable from Syrian People's Council head, Hammouda Sabbagh, who extended to him greetings on the New Year. Berri received a similar congratulatory cable from Chinese House Speaker.

Sami Gemayel Renews Call for Government of Specialists as Country Reached 'Dreadful' Level
Kataeb.org/Thursday 03rd January 2019/Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Thursday sounded the alarm over the critical phase that Lebanon is going through, saying that the country has reached a "dreadful" level due to the "disastrous" steps that the political authority has made over the past few years. “Is it acceptable to keep Lebanon without a government amid the economic hardships battering the country?” Gemayel wondered after his meeting with the head of the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers Bechara Asmar. “It is utterly unacceptable to put the whole country on hold just for one ministerial seat,” he said. “People are suffering, families are starving and the youths are leaving their homeland while all they [politicians] are doing is to bicker about a minister."“Let's form a government of specialists while politicians can continue to spar over shares and leverage,” he said. "Take your time to solve your problems, but meanwhile, form a government of specialists to manage the country. Once you settle your differences, you can then form the government that you want," Gemayel noted in an address to the politicians. Gemayel stressed that the Kataeb party will continue to stand by the side of the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers to make the people's voice heard, adding that it is time to end the current political deadlock because the country and its people can no longer endure its repercussions. The Kataeb chief stressed the need to not politicize the actions taken by the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers, suggesting that said body would form a committee that coordinates the next steps while adhering to a professional and neutral approach. Gemayel was accompanied by a delegation consisting of MP Elias Hankache, Kataeb's Deputy-President Salim Sayegh, Deputy Secretary-General Patrick Richa, politburo member Majid Al-Ayle and the head of the party's Labor Affairs Department, Ziad Kehdi.

Loyalty to Resistance calls on Lebanon to invite Syria to Arab Economic Summit
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - "Loyalty to Resistance" bloc on Thursday held its periodic meeting at its headquarters in Haret hreik, under the chairmanship of bloc head, MP Mohammed Raad. The bloc discussed most recent developments in Lebanon and the broad region. In a statement issued in the wake of the meeting, the bloc stressed the need for a swift government formation, saying "it is due time for the new government to see the light without any delay." The bloc also considered that it is in Lebanon's interest to invite Syria to the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit, which will be taking place in Beirut this month. The bloc said there is a strategic interest for Lebanon to invite Syria to the Arab Economic Summit, especially amidst the current circumstances witnessing positive Arab climate in terms of accelerated Arab States' return to Syria. As such, the Bloc stressed that Lebanon, "the closest neighbor to Syria", should be at the forefront of initiators to bolster such a climate.

Khalil visits Hariri: Some ministries could run out of funds in a month
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri received this afternoon at the Center House the caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and discussed with him the latest political developments. After the meeting, Khalil said: "The idea of convening the Council of Ministers to discuss and approve the budget draft is not a challenge to anyone and we are not in disagreement with Premier Saad Hariri on this issue. This requires further study and consultations, although we consider it constitutional. The concept of addressing issues by the caretaker government in the narrow meaning may last one or two months, but when the formation process becomes lengthy and is delayed, there is a precedent with the Omar Karami's government on which we can base ourselves. If the government is delayed for an additional month, funds may not be available for several ministries and we will have to find ways to secure them." Regarding the government formation, Khalil said: "I have the impression that things should not last long but we have to be careful on this issue."

Rahi meets Maronite Cultural Center Administrative Board
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - The Maronite Cultural Center Administrative Board on Thursday held its annual meeting with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi, at the Patriarchal seat Bkirki. The Center's administrative board comprised: Representative of the Maronite Patriarchate, Bishop Maroun Nasser Gemayel, Center Head, Honorary Consul Fadi Bou Dagher, National News Agency Director Laure Sleiman, Dr. Harith Al Bustani, Attorney Sarkis Sherfan, Marina El Hajj and Marianne Farraj. The Administrative Board briefed the Patriarch on the activities of the Center during 2018 and its activities in 2019. The most prominent achievements by the Center in 2018 included the publication of a film about the history and origin of the Maronites and their relation with the land, Lebanon and the Phoenicians, as well as the publication of a film about the divine path of love depicting an overview of the Maronites and the medical, scientific and theological specifications of Christ's shroud. The delegation asked of Patriarch Rahi to set a date for the inauguration of the Maronite Cultural Center at the "Hayda Lebanon" Cultural Resort in Zaarour area next June. A mass to be presided over by Patriarch Rahi and a crowd of bishops and priests will be held on the occasion. The launching of an application on smart phones to connect Maronite Church members will also be taking place on the occasion.

Machnouk, Fahed tackle judicial affairs
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - Caretaker Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk, on Thursday welcoemd at his ministsrial office the President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Judge Jean Fahed, with whom he discussed an array of general judicial affairs.

Guidanian visits GLC, voices support to strike
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - Representing the Tashnag Party, Caretaker Tourism Minister, Avedis Guidanian, visited on Thursday the General Labor Confederation and expressed support to tomorrow's strike. "Failing to commit to tomorrow's strike signifies outright nonchalance," the Minister said. "It is not possible to remain bogged down in this situation. All the people are aware that we are on the brink of an abyss, and the situation is no longer tolerable," Guidanian said, fearing poor presence at the economic summit at the absence of a new government.

Ibrahim, Del Col tackle South border situation
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - General Security General Director, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, welcomed on Thursday UNIFIL Force Commander and Head of Mission, Major General Stefano Del Col, with whom he tackled the security situation along the Lebanese Southern borders.

Reactions In Syrian Regime, Hizbullah Circles To U.S. Withdrawal From Syria: Between Sense Of Victory For The Resistance Axis And Fear Of An American-Turkish Conspiracy
MEMRI/January 03/18
The Bashar Al-Assad regime responded to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of the U.S. pullout from Syria with satisfaction over the "American defeat," but also with skepticism regarding the sincerity of the announcement and apprehension that it is merely a ruse. The Syrian regime and pro-regime press published many articles, including one by senior Assad advisor Buthaina Sha'ban, which called the withdrawal an American admission of defeat and of the regime's victory, and even an American "flight" from the battlefield. The withdrawal, they said, signals the failure of America's plans in the region, and was achieved thanks to the prowess of the Syrian army and the sacrifices and steadfastness of the Syrian people.
At the same time, regime officials expressed suspicion that the announcement is a lie and a cover for a new plan to attack Syria. For example, Syrian MP Butrus Marjaneh said on December 20 that "if the statement is genuine, it is an admission that Syria has won," but that the statement "cannot be trusted until practical steps of withdrawal are seen on the ground." This skepticism was also apparent in Syrian press articles, which threatened that if the U.S. forces did not withdraw voluntarily, the Syrian army would drive them out. Some speculated that the withdrawal is part of an conspiracy between the U.S. administration and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aimed at allowing Turkey to take America's place in Syria, and warned Erdogan against taking such a measure. Yet other articles took the opportunity to condemn and mock the Kurdish forces that operated under U.S. sponsorship. Now that the Kurds have abandoned by their American allies, said the articles, they will have no choice but to return to the fold of the Syrian state under the authority of the Assad regime.
The U.S. decision to withdraw from Syria also evoked responses from members of the Lebanese Hizbullah, who called it a strategic victory for the resistance axis.
This report reviews the reactions to Trump's decision in the Syrian government and pro-regime press, and by Hizbullah members.
U.S. withdraws from Syria, leaving its "agents" behind (Teshreen, Syria, December 22, 2018)
Assad Advisor Buthaina Sha'ban, Syrian Columnists: The U.S. Has Admitted Defeat And Is Running Away
President Assad's media and political advisor Buthaina Sha'ban claimed that the U.S. was not withdrawing but "fleeing." In her weekly column in the pro-regime Al-Watan daily, she wrote that "whether the Americans withdraw today or tomorrow... they are fleeing this country, which will [now] return to its owners and its people." She added: "I will not discuss the background of the U.S. decision, which was clearly taken by U.S. President Donald Trump several months ago, or the questions of its timing, the timeframe for its implementation or what will come after it – for the answers to all these questions depend on a complex array of political, military and economic factors, and also on strategies having to do with the dying of the old world and the birth of a new one. What interests me is the manipulative explanations provided by some people for this decision, which try to preserve the prestige and the [apparent] might of [the side] that failed and is now fleeing from its shameful and illegal act. These people do not even dare to mention the might of the [Syrian] side, which invested efforts and made sacrifices, and was the main cause of this failure and this flight... It is amazing that, despite the steadfastness of the mothers of the martyrs and the wounded, and despite the huge sacrifices made, some people are still unwilling to reverse the equation or say explicitly that [the Americans] fled thanks to our steadfastness and were defeated thanks to our sacrifices. Even if their flight does not meet our conditions, we will continue acting and sacrificing until we achieve our goals and until the world is persuaded that it is impossible to defeat the rightful owners of the land. All other analyses, which assume... [that the American decision] stems from strength rather than weakness, are manipulative analyses [by those] who are unable to convince themselves that the rightful [owners of the land] changed history and forced the aggressors to flee."
Read The Full Report
Special Dispatch No. 7827
Russian Anti-Liberal Think Tank Cheers Turkey-Iran-Qatar Entente As Replacement For 'Demonic' US-Israel-Saudi Arabia Trio
The pro-Putin and anti-liberal think-tank Katehon published an editorial stating that a new axis, represented by Iran, Turkey and Qatar, has been formed. Katehon explained that the prospects of this alliance look "fantastic". According to think-tank, if Iran, Turkey and Doha will overcome their geopolitical differences, they have the power to control Asia, the west of India and Pakistan. This emerging alliance, according to Katehon, will be a much more benevolent hegemon, than "the demonic trio of the USA - Israel - Saudi Arabia."
Below is Katehon's editorial:
Turkey's Erdogan and Iran's Rouhani confer
"The cordial relations between Qatar, Turkey and Iran continue to evolve despite sanctions.
"Turkey, Iran and Qatar are moving in a direct course towards creating a full-fledged alliance in the Middle East, threatening to make serious adjustments to the status quo in the region. Such a rapprochement, as published in the London edition of Arab Weekly, threatens to undermine the foundations of local security, but it is impossible to say how far these fears are justified."
On December 16, 2018, Rotana Khalijiyya TV (Saudi Arabia) aired a debate about normalization of relations with Israel. Saudi journalist Dahham Al-Enazi said that Iran and Turkey are bigger threats in the region, and that the Arab conflict with Israel is over borders while conflict with Iran is a matter of life and death. He advocated normalizing of relations with Israel. Saudi researcher Dr. Muhammad Al-Attar said that the Palestinian leaders do not want to resolve the Palestinian issue. He said that Saudi Arabia has wasted too much money on other Arab nations. Saudi cleric Yousef Al-Quait argued that the Saudi government's official position is not to normalize relations with Israel until the Palestinians get their rights. He accused Al-Enazi of being schizophrenic and of not representing anybody's views. Al-Enazi responded that if he didn't represent anybody's views, he would not have been invited to the show.
Following are excerpts:
Dahham Al-Enazi: "This conflict has been going on since before 1948. It existed even before [Hajj Amin] Al-Husseini went to Hitler – who burned the Jews – when there was a proposal to divide the land between Palestine and Israel. Then the war of 1948 stared and Palestine [sic] was established. So this conflict… As intellectuals we should know the facts. We have a real and important conflict between the Persians and the Arabs. The Persian plan is to take over the region. Another real conflict is the one we have with the Neo-Ottomans, who wish to colonize the region once again – especially Mecca and Medina. This is the KSA, and we won't allow its destruction."
Yousef Al-Quait: "The government's position is that there will be no normalization before the Palestinians get their rights. Why do you jump the gun?"
Dahham Al-Enazi: "Shame on any Arab intellectual who does not recognize the Persian and Turkish threats and who, instead, distorts the facts in order to present Israel as the enemy."
Dr. Muhammad Al-Attar (On Phone): "[The Palestinians] do not wish to resolve their own issue. I am very empathetic towards the Palestinian people. I have many Palestinian friends and I used to live with them, but their leaders do not want to resolve their issue.
"If Saudi Arabia had spent on itself half of what it spent on other Arab [nations], we would have paved the streets of our country with thick marble. All of the money that Saudi Arabia gave the [Palestinians], and all the support we showed in international forums, and so on and so forth… All that money has gone to the pockets of their leaders, and to 17 or 20 Palestinian organizations. This is also true with regard to Lebanon and Syria. Lebanon was destroyed in its most recent war with Israel. [Saudi Arabia] spent a lot of money when the war was over. Where did it all go? To the pockets of those people."
Dahham Al-Enazi: "A conflict over borders is not the same as a life-and-death conflict. As Arabs and Palestinians, we have a conflict with Israel over borders, but with Iran, we have a conflict over life and death.
"I am exercising my freedom of opinion by calling for Israeli-Saudi relations. I do not represent the Saudi government or the Saudi Foreign Ministry. I'm not influenced by the opinion of John Doe, who says that… We already have relations with China and America."
U.K.-Based Journalist Abdel-Bari Atwan: America Betrayed The Kurds And Has Been Defeated In Syria; I'm Glad, 'Because The American Enterprise In The Middle East Has Been Defeated... By The Resistance'
In a video he posted to his YouTube channel on December 21, 2018, U.K.-based journalist Abdel-Bari Atwan said that the Kurds have been stabbed in the back repeatedly for over 80 years, and that they are only being exploited by the U.S. and Israel. He said that Syria has given them the best treatment and that they should cooperate with their Arab brothers and become Syrians. Atwan said that he fears that America pulled out Syria in order to allow ISIS to regroup and as part of a plan to ultimately attack Iran. He added that he is nonetheless glad that the American enterprise in the region has been defeated by the resistance and that Israel is besieged from all sides by Hizbullah, Hamas, and Syrian and Iranian forces.
Following are excerpts:
Abdel-Bari Atwan: "Our dear Kurdish brothers, why won't you learn your lesson? You have been stabbed in the back repeatedly for over 80 years. I appeared on TV two days ago with [Syrian-Kurdish politician] Elham Ahmad, and she said that the Americans had stabbed [the Kurds] in the back. Is there any space left on your back for the Americans and Israelis to stab you? Haven't you learned? The Americans do not want to give you a state. The Americans and Israelis are exploiting you. Has Syria done anything but treated you well? Syria gave 350,000 of you full citizenship, and considered you to be good Syrian citizens. The Syrian state protected you and treated you with the utmost respect. When the Americans came, you ceased being Syrians, but now that they are withdrawing, you say that the Syrian army should come and protect you from Turkey and from some of the Americans who have not left? What's going on? Why don't you cooperate with us Arabs? We are your brothers. Why shouldn't we be brothers? Why shouldn't you be Syrians? You can be Syrians and Kurds at the same time, just as there are Arab Syrians and Christian Syrians. Why not?
"I am afraid of two important things. First, I fear that America, or Trump, has decided to withdraw [from Syria] in order to create chaos in the region, and in order to allow ISIS to rest, so that it can expand even more than it did the first time around. That's one thing. Second, I fear that Trump made this decision because he plans a war against Iran. He does not want to leave 2,000 American special operations soldiers in Syria. He even withdrew the diplomats, or he plans to withdraw them. He does not want to leave them there for a very simple reason: because if he attacks Iran, they would be victims and prisoners left to the mercy of Iran and its allies, such as Hizbullah, the PMO in Iraq, or the Iraqi Hizbullah Al-Nujaba Movement. [Trump] is afraid of this. So maybe the withdrawal from Syria and the withdrawal of 7,000 soldiers from Afghanistan, who are at the mercy of the Taliban... There are strong ties between the Taliban and Iran. This is a proven fact.
"Despite all this, I want to say that I am glad. I am glad because America has been defeated. The American enterprise in the Middle East has been defeated. It has been defeated by the resistance – by the resistance of the Taliban in Afghanistan, by the steadfastness of the Syrian Arab Army, and by the steadfastness of all the honorable people in the region who faced this enterprise. The enterprise has been defeated, along with all of America's collaborators.
"Israel is now besieged by Hizbullah from the north, by Hamas from the south, and by Hizbullah and Syrian and Iranian forces from the east. The resistance has very advanced missiles now. It even has UAVs. There will be surprises in the region. I believe that the coming year will be different. We do not want Trump to be a policeman in our region. Thanks be to Allah, good times are coming. Thank you, and best wishes to all!"
Senior Badr Organization Official Karim Al-Nouri Threatens 'Response By The Resistance' Following President Trump's Visit To Iraq
Karim Al-Nouri, who is a senior official at the Iraqi Badr Organization, said during a December 31, 2018 interview on Al-Nujaba TV (Iraq) that Trump came to visit Iraq like a "fearful and terrified thief." He said that the Badr Organization values the Iraqi government's agreements and the balance of power, but that the resistance does not succumb to any pressure and is "above any diplomatic courtesy." He added: "[The resistance will respond] if the United States insists on staying in Iraq… and America knows more than anyone what this response will be like. What happened in Iraq following the 2003 [war] proves that the resistance did not, and will not, remain silent."
Karim Al-Nouri: "Trump came like a fearful and terrified thief to the Ayn Al-Asad Airbase [in Iraq]. I think it is highly unlikely that he informed the Iraqi leadership ahead of time.
[…]
"The resistance is left with only one option. We value all the agreements of the Iraqi government and the balances of power, but this does not mean that we could possibly accept the humiliation of the Iraqi government and people. Not everything done by the Iraqi government [is justified]. They adhere to diplomatic courtesy and perhaps they succumb to pressure. Well, the resistance does not succumb to any pressure, and it is above any diplomatic courtesy. If the America insists on staying in Iraq, in the reckless manner of American cowboys, there will definitely be a response by the resistance, and America has experienced this type of response more than anyone else. What happened in Iraq following the 2003 [war] proves that the resistance did not, and will not, remain silent."

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 03-04/19
US warns Iran against space launches, ballistic missiles
Reuters/January 03, 2019/WASHINGTON: The United States issued a pre-emptive warning to Iran on Thursday against pursuing three planned space rocket launches that it said would violate a UN Security Council resolution because they use ballistic missile technology. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Iran had announced plans to launch in the coming months three rockets, called Space Launch Vehicles (SLV), which he said incorporate technology that is "virtually identical" to that used in intercontinental ballistic missiles. "The United States will not stand by and watch the Iranian regime's destructive policies place international stability and security at risk," Pompeo said in a statement. "We advise the regime to reconsider these provocative launches and cease all activities related to ballistic missiles in order to avoid deeper economic and diplomatic isolation."Iranian Deputy Defense Minister General Qassem Taqizadeh in late November was quoted by Iranian media as saying that Iran was planning to launch three satellites into space soon. "The satellites have been made by domestic experts and will be put on various orbits," Taqizadeh said. Pompeo said such rocket launches would violate United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. It calls upon Iran not to undertake activities related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such technology. It stops short of explicitly barring such activity. US President Donald Trump decided in May to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. Pompeo said Iran has launched ballistic missiles numerous times since the UN resolution was adopted. He said it test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads on Dec. 1. "The United States has continuously cautioned that ballistic missile and SLV launches by the Iranian regime have a destabilizing effect on the region and beyond," Pompeo said. "France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and many nations from around the world have also expressed deep concern." In July 2017, Iran launched a rocket it said could deliver a satellite into space, an act the US State Department called provocative. Earlier that month, the United States slapped new economic sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program. Iran says its space program is peaceful, but Western experts suspect it may be a cover for developing military missile technologies.

Jailed Iranian-British charity worker goes on hunger strike in Tehran prison
Arab News/January 03, 2019 /DUBAI: Jailed Iranian-British charity worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she would go on hunger strike from Jan. 14, 2019 after being refused access to medical help, UK website The Independent reported. Her announcement, which came in the form of a letter published by an Iranian rights charity, came from Tehran’s Evian prison and said the three-day strike with fellow inmate Narges Mohammadi, who is a prominent rights activist, but will go on until their demands are met.

Syria: Rebel-Militant Clashes Kill Dozens
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/Clashes between extremists and rebels raged Thursday inside Syria's last major opposition bastion for a third day, a monitor said, as the death toll mounted to more than 70 fighters. Fighting flared Tuesday between the militant-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and a rival rebel alliance in the northern province of Aleppo, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The fighting then spread to parts of the neighbouring province of Idlib the next day, and then into Hama province on Thursday, the Britain-based monitor said. "New fronts have opened up," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said, with HTS seizing more than a dozen areas in recent days. On Wednesday, 17 HTS fighters and 16 combatants from the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front rebel alliance were killed. That brought the overall death toll to 75 fighters from both sides, as well as six civilians, according to the Observatory. HTS had on Monday accused NLF member Nureddine al-Zinki of killing five of its fighters, and launched an offensive against rebel positions. HTS, which is led by the radicals of Syria's former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and rival rebels from the NLF have been battling each other for territory for two years. And the last major rebel bastion of Idlib -- which includes adjacent parts of Aleppo and Hama -- has been regularly rocked by assassinations. Since September, the stronghold has been protected from a regime offensive by a shaky deal signed by Turkey and Russia to set up a buffer zone around it. Sparked by the brutal repression of anti-regime protests in 2011, the civil war has since killed more than 360,000 people and displaced more than half the country's population.

New Pentagon chief discusses Syria with Pompeo
AFP, Washington/Thursday, 3 January 2019/Top advisors to President Donald Trump met at the Pentagon on Thursday to discuss Syria and other topics, a defense official said. The meeting was the first of its kind for Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, who started his new job January 1 following the resignation of his predecessor Jim Mattis. According to a senior defense official, Shanahan met with National Security Advisor John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and General Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They “discussed a wide variety of topics to include Syria,” the official said.
Mattis quit last month after Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, even though the Islamic State still has thousands of fighters in the country and a US pull out would leave Kurdish fighters vulnerable to attack by Turkey. Shanahan must oversee how the US pulls more than 2,000 troops out of Syria. Various timelines have been floated, but Trump on Wednesday seemed vague, saying only that it would happen “over a period of time.”

UK foreign minister Hunt: Syria’s Assad will be around for a while
Reuters, London/Thursday, 3 January 2019/British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will remain in place for “a while” thanks to support from Russia, even though Britain’s position was still that he remains a block to lasting peace. “The British long-standing position is that we won’t have lasting peace in Syria with that (Assad-led) regime, but regretfully, we do think he’s going to be around for a while,” Hunt told Sky News. The British minister remarks comes after US President Donald Trump announced recently that ISIS has been defeated in Syria, adding that this was the sole reason of American military presence in the country. “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump presidency,” Trump tweeted. The United Arab Emirates had announced earlier on Thursday the reopening of its embassy in Damascus, while Bahrain said works continue as usual in its embassy in the Syrian capital.

Rouhani: We Will Continue Exporting Oil, Derivatives
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019 /Iranian President Hassan Rouhani started his first cabinet meeting this year by sending messages on both internal and foreign levels.He addressed his US counterpart Donald Trump saying that the latter’s administration has failed to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. This comes amid fears in Iran of increased prospects for military confrontation after Washington announced it would modify the presence of its troops in Syria and Afghanistan. Rouhani used his familiar approach to explain his government's short-term challenges, most notably the US administration’s steps to impose an oil embargo on Iran's exports and the deteriorating conditions of the Iranian economic scene. “Americans won’t ever achieve their goal of preventing Iran from exporting its oil and its derivatives,” Rouhani said, challenging Trump’s plan. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will powerfully continue the path of its oil exports.”He described his country’s economic activities promising and positive despite the enemies’ pressures, local media reported. He also stressed the need to publish reports of the steps taken by the government to inform the Iranian people. Publishing positive news about the transformation of the Iranian economy and the procedures of government agencies is one of the objectives of the formation of the Supreme Council for Economic Coordination, which is headed by Rouhani, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and Judiciary Chief Sadeq Larijani. The Council formation was one of the urgent measures announced by the Iranian government about three weeks before the second package of US sanctions entered into force early November. “In the past nine months, our trade balance has been positive because of our $750m non-oil exports,” he noted. Rouhani expressed confidence in overcoming the unemployment crisis. He said statistics in recent years "show an addition of 3.3 million job opportunities.”Rouhani's government refuses to describe what his country is facing as "crises" instead he prefers calling them "problems." He implicitly responded to an ultimatum by Iranian parliamentarians on Wednesday about hikes in prices and deterioration in living conditions.

Sisi Launches Initiative to Support Egypt’s ‘Most Needy’
Cairo - Mohamed Nabil Helmy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi launched on Wednesday a national initiative to provide a decent life for needy families. He said in a post on his official Facebook page that Egyptian citizens have made sacrifices and bore the brunt of the economic reforms to ensure a better life for future generations. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), some 30 million Egyptians (representing 28 percent of the total population estimated at 104 million) were living below the poverty threshold until 2015.
The President called on state institutions and agencies to coordinate with civil society organizations, unite their efforts for the interest of the nation’s youth, men and women, and launch the initiative directly under his auspices. Few hours after his announcement, Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Waly called on civil society organizations and NGOs to attend a meeting at the ministry’s headquarters on Thursday to coordinate civil society efforts in response to the President’s initiative. In an official statement, Waly said the meeting is expected to review detailed data on the poorest and most needy villages.
Egypt's Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced in November that starting this year, cash aid from the Takaful and Karama program will be disbursed for two children in each family enrolled in the program instead of three. He said this decision will allow a larger number of families to benefit from the program. Launched in 2015, Takaful and Karama aims to support impoverished families with school-aged children, the elderly and people with special needs, mainly in Upper Egypt. “The move aims to allow more households to benefit from the cash support program,” Madbouly said, pointing out that more scenarios are being considered to rationalize in-kind support. The Minister said that 2.2 million households currently benefit from the program, and that the amount of cash provided to households depends on the number of children and their school level.

Tunisia: Two Terrorists Blew Themselves Up in Clashes with Security Personnel
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/Two militants blew themselves up on Thursday following an exchange of fire with Tunisian security forces in the city of Jilma, 250 km south of the capital Tunis, the interior ministry stated, Reuters reported. The statement added that the militants killed themselves after being encircled by security forces who stormed their hideout in the city. Authorities estimate about 3,000 Tunisians have joined ISIS and other terrorist groups in Iraq, Syria and neighboring Libya, according to Reuters. Tunisia saw 3 terror attacks in 2015. Since 2011, the North African country has been combating militants operating in remote areas near the border with Algeria.

Israeli Public Security Minister Reduces Prisoners' Water Supply
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan announced on Wednesday several new procedures that could worsen the conditions of Palestinians in Israeli prisons. The tough measures include rationing water supply, blocking Palestinian Authority funds, banning prisoners from cooking food for themselves, reducing autonomy given to Palestinian prisoners and ending separation of prisoners belonging to rival Palestinian factions Hamas, Fatah, and Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine.
“I have decided that the Prisons Service will stop holding the prisoners in wings based on their organizational affiliation,” he said. "The Prison Service can handle any scenario" within its facilities, the minister said. "We mustn't be deterred by any attempt to scare us."
Erdan added that despite Shin Bet's reservations, "there is no reason a security issue would be delayed." He will submit his recommendations to the security cabinet, “We don’t fear threats or strikes.”Erdan claimed that these procedures were taken in the aftermath of a report prepared by a special team from the Ministry of Public Security months ago, abstaining from classifying these procedures under pursuits to attain personal interests in the Likud elections at the beginning of February. Reliable sources revealed that Erdan is eagerly seeking to enhance his position inside the party, out of fear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's followers would retaliate because he didn’t exert any personal effort to ban the police (falling under his authority) from recommending the submission of an indictment against Netanyahu in three corruption files. In a statement, the Palestinian Center for Human Rights called on international and rights institutions to exert pressure on the occupation to abide by Geneva agreement and the international humanitarian law regarding captives’ rights. The collective sanctions against more than 6,000 captives raise questions about the motives and goals, and are certainly a violation of international charters, added the statement.

Iraqis Enraged as MP Filmed Illegally Firing Gun in Air
Baghdad- Fadel Al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 3 January, 2019/An Iraqi member of parliament has sparked controversy after she was filmed firing shots illegally in the air on New Year's Eve. Even though MP Wihdah al-Jumaili apologized in a post on her Facebook page, her actions still angered Iraqis all over the country. Jumaili said she was celebrating the marriage of a friend’s son in Ramadi when the shots were fired. She wrote on Facebook that she shot in the air as “part of tribal practices adopted by tribes in Ramadi,” stressing she used empty bullets. Jumaili was a member of parliament between 2010 and 2014 and served as a consultant to former Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri. In 2017, she became a member of the High Commission for Human Rights and won a parliamentary seat as a member of the National Axis coalition in the current parliamentary session 2018-2022. The deputy was strongly criticized by various Iraqi parties and seven lawyers filed a written request on Wednesday to Iraq’s attorney general, urging him to hold the deputy accountable under the Iraqi Penal Code. Firing a gun in the air is considered an offense under Iraqi law, and under Article 495-2 of the Penal Code, Jumaili could face one to three years in prison. Mohammed Majid al-Saadi, who is one of the lawyers that filed the complaint, stated that the deputy had actually violated the law, and they informed the prosecutor and were waiting for him to take necessary measures in the coming days. Saadi ruled out the possibility of parliament lifting the deputy’s immunity in preparation for the prosecution. He confirmed to Asharq al-Awsat that “accountability in this case does not fall within the statute of limitations, so even if the parliament does not lift immunity, we will prosecute her after this parliamentary session ends.”Many citizens were surprised by the fact that a deputy, who is supposed to set an example for the rest, fired random bullets. According to Ministry of Health figures, a girl was killed and over 700 injured by guns or suffered burns from fireworks on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
MP Faiq al-Sheikh Ali sharply criticized Jumaili's actions saying they were not ladylike. Former colleague and current head of Irada parliamentary bloc, Hanan al-Fatlawi, condemned Jumaili for firing shots, adding on her Twitter account that “celebrating New Year’s Eve does not mean doing these disgraceful acts.”Legal expert Tariq Harb explained that, according to Iraqi law, it is illegal for an MP to fire shots, if confirmed, regardless of the existence of immunity or not. Considering the video, Harb noted that the video published is enough to convict the MP. Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat, the expert said that the legal proceedings against the MP were not stopped even with immunity, indicating the possibility to carry on with the proceedings and ask the Judicial Council to request lifting the MP's immunity.

Syria is 'Sand and Death,' Trump Says
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 03/19/U.S. President Donald Trump has offered a rather stark take on the situation in war-wracked Syria, summing it up in two words -- "sand and death" -- while remaining vague about the timing of the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
"So Syria was lost long ago. It was lost long ago. And besides that, I don't want -- we're talking about sand and death. That's what we're talking about," Trump said during a cabinet meeting. "We're not talking about vast wealth. We're talking about sand and death."
On when U.S. forces would leave Syria, Trump said: "I don't want to be in Syria forever."But after saying troops would come home right away, and that the Islamic State group was defeated, he didn't give any specific timetable. "I never said we are getting out overnight," Trump said. "Oh, we're withdrawing," he added, saying only that it would happen "over a period of time." On Monday, the Republican president said the United States was "slowly sending" troops home -- a markedly different tone than he used in his initial announcement of a withdrawal on December 19. "Our boys, our young women, our men -- they're all coming back and they're coming back now," he said in a video message that day. The United States has about 2,000 troops -- most of them special forces -- deployed in northern Syria to fight IS and reinforce anti-jihadist forces. Top-ranking U.S. military officials had repeatedly warned against a hasty retreat from Syria, which they say could leave the door open in Syria to allies of President Bashar al-Assad -- notably Russia and Iran. Trump's defense secretary Jim Mattis resigned over the decision to leave Syria, as did the administration's special envoy to the anti-IS coalition, Brett McGurk.

Leader of France's 'Yellow Vests' Arrested
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 03/19/One of the leaders of the "yellow vest" anti-government demonstrations was detained by police in Paris late Wednesday for organizing an unauthorized protest, signaling a harder line by the authorities against the movement.
Eric Drouet -- who already faces a trial for carrying a weapon at a previous protest -- was held while heading for the Champs-Elysees, which has been the scene of violent clashes over the last month. "It's called respecting the rule of law," Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Thursday as he defended the arrest which drew criticism from some leftist opponents of the government. "It's normal that when you break the laws of the republic, you face the consequences," he added. A few dozen demonstrators had gathered outside a McDonald's restaurant near France's famous Arc de Triomphe war monument and had been waiting for Drouet to arrive early Wednesday evening. Drouet, a truck driver who appears on television as a spokesman for the "yellow vests", had called for the demonstration in a video posted on his Facebook page. The "yellow vest" demonstrations -- so-called after the high-visibility jackets they wear -- began in rural France in November over fuel taxes and ballooned into a wider revolt against President Emmanuel Macron's policies and governing style.The protesters, who have repeatedly flouted laws that require them to declare their demonstrations in advance, have regularly clashed with police in Paris and other big cities. Drouet, who was filmed on Wednesday night being forced into a police vehicle by dozens of riot police in protective gear, was first arrested last month after he was found carrying a wooden stick at a demonstration. He faces trial on June 5 for "carrying a prohibited category D weapon", a judicial source told AFP. Radical leftist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, a fierce critic of Macron, tweeted: "Again Eric Drouet arrested, why? Abuse of power. A politicised police targeting and harassing the leaders of the yellow vest movement." One political commentator on the BFM news channel, Bruno Jeudy, said the arrest risked turning Drouet into a sort of "martyr" at a time when the "yellow vest" movement appeared to be running out of steam. Only a couple of hundred people turned up for the last round of demonstrations called on the Champs-Elysees on New Year's Eve. In mid-December, after weeks of violence, Macron scrapped unpopular fuel tax rises in response to the protests, promised extra cash for minimum wage earners and tax cuts for pensioners.

Turkey, Iraq will deepen cooperation in fight against terrorism, Erdogan says
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - Turkey and Iraq will deepen their cooperation in the fight against terrorism, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday. Erdogan was speaking at a news conference with his Iraqi counterpart Barham Salih. Turkey has said it would take over the fight against Islamic State following the U.S. decision to pull out of Syria. Ankara also carries out regular air strikes on Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq.--Reuters

Death toll rises to 38 from building collapse in Russia
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - The death toll from the partial collapse of a building in Russian city of Magnitogorsk reached 38, the Emergency Situations Ministry said on Thursday. Six children are among victims of the accident after a block of the 10-story building collapsed following a gas explosion on Monday, the ministry said in a statement on its official website. At least three persons remain missing, as the third part of the building rubble is yet to be searched. An 11-month baby was rescued from the wreckage of the building on Tuesday.--Anadolu News Agency

Migrant deaths in the Mediterranean decreased in 2018, UN agency says
Thu 03 Jan 2019/NNA - The number of migrants who died or went missing attempting to cross the Mediterranean fell by more than a quarter in 2018 compared to 2,262 in the previous year, the UN refugee agency said on Thursday (3 January). According to the UNHCR’s full-year figures, the number of migrants who arrived in Europe after surviving the sea crossing also dropped by roughly the same proportion last year to 113,482 after 172,301 in 2017.A total of 3,139 were reported dead or missing in 2017."The Mediterranean has been for years the most deadly sea crossing in the world for refugees and migrants," UNHCR spokeswoman Celine Schmitt told AFP in Paris. The data also confirmed that Spain had become the main gateway into Europe for migrants and refugees who travel from north Africa, with 55,756 people registered as arriving there by sea in 2018. Italy, under its hardline anti-immigration government, cut the number of arrivals dramatically last year to 23,371 around a fifth of the number who arrived in 2017 when 119,369 crossed from Libya.--AFP

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 03-04/19
Coming soon, believe it or not -- Islamic Party of Ontario
Tarek Fatah/Toronto Sun/December 03/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/70692/tarek-fatah-toronto-sun-coming-soon-believe-it-or-not-islamic-party-of-ontario/
As people around the globe celebrate the New Year, for me 2019 is beginning just the way 2018 did — with a threat against me. Leading up to 2018, the threats against me were quite blatant, leading last year to the arrest of two would-be assassins in India. Even in Toronto, a Muslim cab driver pointed his fist at me in pistol fashion saying, “I have a special gun for you,” as he sped away. Yet towards the end of 2018, a much more subtler death threat was addressed to me, this time by the head of Canada’s newest aspiring political party, the Islamic Party of Ontario. In case you have not heard of the Islamic Party of Ontario, its name was officially reserved under Elections Ontario rules in October 2018, with more steps required before it becomes a formal party. It operates with a mandate to introduce Islamic rule in Ontario and Canada because, according to the fledgling party, “We understand and believe that Islam is the native DEEN (religion) of Ontario and Canada.”The Islamic Party of Ontario is headed by one Jawed Anwar, who operates out of the Toronto neighborhood of Thorncliffe Park.
In a column posted at the end of October targeting American activist Laura Loomer, Anwar described me as “… Islamophobe Tareek (sic) Fatah in Toronto Sun. Tareek is an open enemy of Islam and a hate-purveyor.”Non-Muslim readers, even police and politicians, would not know the significance of the allegation, but every Muslim on earth is aware of the implications of accusing a Muslim of being an ‘Islamophobe’ or being “open enemy of Islam.”An allegation such as the one labelled against me is the equivalent of declaring me an ‘apostate,’ which makes it a duty of other Muslims to kill me and thus secure a place in Paradise for themselves. For those who are living in 2019 and the 21st century, this may sound like a joke. But those who are still living as if it is 1019 in the 11th century, the beheading of an alleged Muslim apostate is part of their heritage and faith. After all, the first Muslim vs. Muslim war broke out within a year of Prophet Muhammad’s death when one section of the community was declared ‘apostates’ by the Caliph and the ‘War of Apostasy’ led to thousands being killed over an issue of religious taxes.
Petty cowards inside the Muslim community are prone to hang Islam’s Sword of Damocles over their opponent’s head and swing it to deadly effect. This was best captured in the story of the 10th century Baghdad philosopher Mansour Hallaj, who was beheaded for the sacrilege of merely uttering the words, “I am the Truth.”Islamists universally agree that it is essential to put the Muslim apostate to death. They base their blood lust on a supposed command of Prophet Muhammad who is recorded to have said: “Whoever changes his religion, put him to death.”Death threats do not intimidate me, but here we have in Anwar the leader of an aspiring Ontario political party who is playing coy with Premier Doug Ford by supporting the PC Party’s approach to ‘gender politics.’I wrote to Jawed Anwar to seek his perspective and clarification, if any, but he didn’t respond to my repeated requests. Before this Trojan Horse can enter the gates of mainstream Toronto and Ontario politics by the ever-eager diversity-seeking politicians, perhaps you, the voters need to know what the Islamic Party of Ontario claims to desire in Canada, according to their posted principles and policies.
Establish Islam as the natural religion of Ontario.
Quash LGBTQ rights because “God made Adam and Eve –not Adam and Steve.”
A complete ban on abortion except in a situation when a mother’s life is in danger.
End the concept of “gender identity” or “seven-colour gender,” a false concept.
Ban liquor, drugs, adultery, and gambling.
Happy New Year Canada. Let us weed out the merchants of misery who seek death as a means of salvation.

A Call to Whom It May Concern…to All Arabs
Amr Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/January 03/19
Last October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement on the strategic importance of the Syrian Golan Heights to Israeli security and the need to end its legal status as an occupied territory and annex it to Israel.
In December 2018, a draft-resolution was submitted to the US Senate, scheduled for early 2019, to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights. The draft-bill was put forward by Senator Ted Cruz (who tried to obtain the Republican Party’s approval to be its presidential candidate but lost to candidate Donald Trump in 2016. But he is still on the list of the party’s potential candidates for the 2020 election, if President Trump’s popularity fell, which is possible).
Another senator signed the draft-resolution, while work is underway to secure more signatories from the Republican and Democrat camps, to make it a national draft-bill, with a view to issuing it by broad consensus or overwhelming majority, since guaranteeing Israel’s security will only be achieved by enabling it to assume sovereignty over the Golan Heights and considering that “Israel’s security is part of the national security of the United States,” as stated in the text of the draft-resolution.
It should also be noted that US government officials have already indicated, following the statement by the Israeli prime minister, that US recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights is “possible.”
We are therefore facing a dangerous development in the Syrian case.
Any talk about the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in any future solution should be comprehensive and facing all sides.
Calling on Iran and Turkey to withdraw from Syria and respect its sovereignty while remaining silent over plans and steps to separate the Golan Heights is not only a political mistake that affects or hinders the credibility of any solution, but also a cause for great political chaos in Syria, in the region and in the Arab world in particular, regardless of the attitude of the Arab “Jacobins”, who have different ideas about the future of the Arab world and its entity and sovereignty over its territory. Those, in my opinion, are a minority; and it is not politically wise to take them into consideration.
Therefore, I expect that part of the arguments presented by the sponsors of the draft-resolution would be based on affirmations that no one would be disturbed because “the Arab world is inert” and that they have received assurances from here and there that there would be no protests or diplomatic counter-moves, but mere face-saving statements.
In my opinion, it is high time to say something or at least take a stand. We are actually very late in doing so and unduly retreated.
I call upon the Syrian Government, with its difficult circumstances, first: to fear nothing in its effort to preserve its territory and sovereignty in the face of this grave challenge, and to immediately resort to the Security Council requesting its support regarding the Syrian Golan Heights as occupied territory (note that the demand is not Israel’s withdrawal from the Golan, but only to maintain the current legal status of the Golan as an occupied territory, which is stipulated in the previous resolutions of the Council itself).
I call on Arab states to support Syria, and even to encourage it, through a unified Arab stance before the Security Council. A step taken by Syria in this regard is more important than its return to the Arab League but will be a strong introduction to this return. I call upon the Arab countries, all of which have high level embassies in Washington, to sharpen their collective responsibility and communicate with the members of the Senate and its experts, and to form an active lobby in defense of Syria’s territorial integrity that would restore the credibility of their political stance among their hosting countries. The American step is completely illegal and has no convincing justification that makes us remain silent.
I also demand Arab countries, especially those with lobbying agencies in Washington that protect their interests, to help the Arab embassies in their hoped-for mission.
Maintaining the Golan Heights is also an Arab strategic interest. If we succeed in it, it will give a big deal of credibility that everyone will benefit from. We are facing a bold injustice and in the face of a wrong attitude; we must stand to correct it before it becomes a reality that we will regret and pay its price. A mere “post-condemnation” or a resolution by the General Assembly is no longer regarded as a credible position in the eyes of the Arab public opinion and political community but became a source of irony.
Finally, I call on Russia and President Vladimir Putin, who is widely respected in the corners of the Arab world, to adopt a firm position towards this dangerous development. Changing the legal status of the Golan Heights and separating it from Syria, in light of the current Russian presence in this Arab country, undermines the credibility of Russian policies in the Middle East and the country’s reputation in the Arab world. I call upon Russia to take a positive position on Syria’s right to resort to the Security Council, and to deal with this issue from its high position as a superpower, directly with the United States.
**Amr Moussa is Chairman of the Committee of 50, former Egyptian Foreign Minister and former Secretary General of the Arab League

My Predictions for 2019
Stephen Carter/Bloomberg/January 03/19
I have already recapped my predictions for 2018, noting my hits and misses. Now it’s time for my predictions for 2019. Not all are seriously meant but some are more seriously meant than they may appear. I will leave it to the reader to figure out which are which. To the predictions:
1. Embarrassed by the disdainful reaction to the outcome of its HQ2 process, which wound up choosing the pricey suburbs of Washington and New York City for its new offices, Amazon will announce an HQ3 plan, promising to select only distressed areas. Desperate governors and mayors across the country will immediately begin talking down their cities as miserable places where nobody wants to live.
2. In early January, President Donald Trump will cave, achieving neither his border wall nor a more pliable Fed. Markets will react with cautious pessimism.
3. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue its rise. In November 2018, Hawaii’s Mauna Loa observatory found the highest levels ever recorded. It’s true, as skeptics insist, that some of the increase is from natural causes; but unless one believes that the number of volcanic eruptions has been climbing rapidly, most of the increase is from us. Meanwhile, in an effort to demonstrate their commitment to helping out, multiple companies will follow the lead of Valser (owned by Coca-Cola), and use environmentally friendly carbon-capture technology to put those little bubbles in their beverages.
4. While we’re on the topic of climate change, the melting Arctic ice cap will continue to pour thousands of gallons of water per second into the oceans. Skeptics will seize on the news as evidence that fears of coming water wars are overblown, as there will be plenty for all.
5. At the end of 2019, significant numbers of US armed forces will remain in both Afghanistan and Syria.
6. The New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LIII. I understand that this may not be this season’s highest-probability outcome, but I adhere to my practice of always picking the Patriots. As I have explained in the past, this annual prediction involves no rooting interest; I tend to cheer the underdog. It’s just that this is the way things seem to work out.
7. Speaking of professional football, fraud in the settlement fund established to pay former players who have suffered neurocognitive damage will turn into a much bigger story than anybody expected. Earlier this month, the court overseeing distribution of the fund appointed retired federal judge Lawrence F. Stengel to look into the National Football League’s persistent allegations that certain law firms and doctors are filing false claims.
Although the great majority of claims are surely genuine, Stengel is bound to discover quite a few that aren’t. With the amount available likely soon to top $1.4 billion, there’s temptation aplenty. When Stengel’s findings hit the headlines, the NFL, which long denied any responsibility for long-term cognitive harm to its players, will receive an entirely undeserved public relations boost.
8. Although House Democrats will investigate the Trump administration vigorously, no resolution of impeachment will reach the floor for a vote. Trump, his bizarre presidency in tatters, will tweet that his survival is a vindication.
9. After special counsel Robert Mueller’s final report finds “no clear evidence” that Trump has committed a crime, NeverTrumpers will create a GoFundMe, asking 10 million of those who feel as they do to pledge $100 apiece, in the hope of raising enough money to pay Trump to resign his office. After initial resistance within the Resistance, logic will triumph: If Trump constitutes such a menace to the republic, surely $1 billion is a cheap price to be rid of him.
10. As tech companies tout the virtues of virtual reality in the classroom, home-schoolers will take the idea one step further, creating virtual classrooms to link their children with others, but without the need to leave home. Educational authorities will claim the right to regulate, arguing that this new development means home-schoolers are operating an actual school. After litigation that stretches past 2019, libertarian forces will win a rare victory. Hundreds of thousands of parents of school-age children will join the network, imitators will enter the market, a tipping point will be reached, and the classroom as we know it will go into a rapid decline.
11. The highest-grossing film of the year will be “Avengers: Endgame,” if we count actual revenues during calendar 2019. If instead we count all ticket sales during the movie’s run, “Star Wars: Episode IX” will come in first. Meanwhile, not until midsummer will Marvel finally announce a release date for the “Black Panther” sequel.
12. Notwithstanding the openly expressed skepticism of the federal judge overseeing the case, the $69 billion merger of CVS and Aetna will proceed. In its brief, the Justice Department argues sensibly that the Tunney Act, which allows judges to review proposed antitrust settlements, does not grant judges authority to compel the department to investigate aspects of a merger that were never raised in its lawsuit. As the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit noted in 1995, the statute isn’t “an authorization for a district judge to assume the role of Attorney General.” There’s a big difference between concluding that the settlement insufficiently protects the public and concluding that the Justice Department brought the wrong case.
13. The Washington Nationals will overcome the loss of superstar Bryce Harper in free agency and win the World Series over the Houston Astros.
14. Wealthy progressives who continue to sneer at the Republican tax cut as a giveaway to the rich will not offer to return to the US Treasury their gains from the rate reductions.
Those are my predictions for 2019. For you, my loyal readers, I wish a year full of wonder, delight, tolerance, patience, and reason. See you in January.

Foreign Policy Should Not Get Lost in Israel’s Election Campaign
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross/The Washington Institute
Yediot Aharonot/January 2, 2019
Candidates need to be asked how they will deal with thorny issues such as Russian blowback in Syria, Hezbollah missile threats, Gaza reconstruction, and Iranian nuclear resurgence.
It is a truism in politics that elections are about the future, and not just about the past. In Israel’s upcoming election, given the potential of looming indictments, many voters will want to consider whether a sitting prime minister can fulfill the responsibilities of the office while also devoting major time and attention to his legal difficulties. Regardless of how that question is answered, there will be other fundamental questions about national security challenges that must be addressed. And those questions, which have understandably gone to the heart of the Israeli public’s concerns historically, should be asked of both Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his challengers Avi Gabbay, Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and others on the center-left.
To begin with, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel has been important diplomatically and symbolically, it has largely left Israel on its own when it comes to dealing with the challenges of Iran in Syria and Lebanon and managing the Russians. With Moscow now adopting a tougher policy toward Israel’s freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon, how do Netanyahu and other candidates propose to deal with the Russians?
The challenge is especially acute because the Trump administration with its withdrawal from Syria is signaling everyone, including the Russians, that it sees no interests in Syria regardless of whether Israel and Jordan are likely to face Iranian-backed threats from there. Historically, there was an understanding between Israel and the United States: Israel handles the threats it faces in the region, the U.S. deals with threats from external powers. That apparently no longer applies with the Trump administration, so Israel’s leaders have to contend with a new reality in the region in which the U.S. intends to play a diminished role even as Russia becomes more assertive in filling the vacuum.
True, neither the prime minister nor his challengers likely want to acknowledge publicly the reality of a diminished U.S. role and its implications for Israel, but they can address what Israel may need to be doing on its own given Russia’s increased prominence in the region and its new criticism of Israeli actions in Syria and Lebanon. The prime minister may have been the honored guest of Russian president Vladimir Putin last May in Moscow celebrating the victory over the Nazis, but now the Russians are calling the most recent Israeli strike in Syria a provocation and Israeli overflights in Lebanon a violation of UNSC Resolution 1701—this even as Israel uncovers a fifth Hezbollah tunnel into its territory. So the relationship with Putin looks more problematic, and Russia’s impulse to exert its leverage is now greater, particularly with it not having to worry about the United States.
To be sure, Syria is not the only Iran-related challenge near Israel’s borders. Amid understandable concerns about Hezbollah’s 130,000 rockets, Israel has refrained from attacking its precision-guided facilities in Lebanon that could convert these rockets into missiles with greater accuracy. And yet, Israel truly cannot live with Hezbollah having high-accuracy rockets and being capable of launching saturation attacks on Israel’s high-value strategic economic and military targets. So what should Israel do?
Of course, the main Iran-related issue is the question of whether Tehran will renew its nuclear program. The Trump administration has withdrawn from the nuclear deal, and its approach of reimposing sanctions is creating very significant economic pressures on Iran. But it has not altered any Iranian behaviors—Tehran remains aggressive in the region, so Israel must focus on countering that where it can. But what happens if the Iranians withdraw from the nuclear deal, resume their enrichment, and reduce their breakout time to weeks? The Trump approach seems built essentially on sanctions and economic pressure but little more. How will each candidate approach an Iranian withdrawal from the deal and the possibility that the Trump administration will maintain its current approach?
What about on Gaza? Do the prime minister and his challengers have an alternative to the current approach? No one wants to go back into Gaza, but is the reality of periodic flare-ups over the last decade, often driving a million Israelis in the south into shelters, the new normal? Is a more durable ceasefire with Hamas desirable? Is it possible without reconstruction of infrastructure in Gaza? The Israeli security establishment has favored permitting infrastructure projects—electricity, water, and sewage treatment—not simply for humanitarian reasons but also because it offers Gazans something to lose and reduces the prospect of new escalations. What is the alternative to this approach? If there is not one, why hasn’t it gone forward?
As for Palestinian peacemaking, no ultimate deal seems forthcoming any time soon. Yet while President Trump may be intent on reducing the U.S. role in the Middle East, he still appears committed to presenting a Trump peace plan. Even if key Arab leaders may be less inclined to be responsive to Trump if they believe he is withdrawing from the region, the administration wants these leaders to acknowledge the seriousness of the plan. This is especially true at a time when the administration has no contact with President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.
There is, however, little chance of gaining Arab public recognition of the seriousness of the plan without it addressing statehood and key Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has said he would like a coalition much like the current one, and those on the center-left should be asked whether it possible to respond favorably to the Trump plan without a government capable of making tough decisions. Indeed, if what Nikki Haley said in her farewell address is true—that Israelis and Palestinians are going to like parts of the plan and dislike other parts—will a narrow-based right-wing government be able to accept it even with reservations? Is there more to Israeli strategy than merely planning on Abbas to say no so Israel is off the hook?
If the Trump plan is presented and goes nowhere—a clear possibility—what is the policy of the prime minister and his challengers toward the Palestinians? If there is no early prospect of a deal, there is the danger of Israel simply drifting toward becoming a binational state. Each candidate should be asked what they will do to ensure that Israel does not become a binational state.
Lastly, what is each candidate’s policy toward preserving bipartisan ties with the United States—recognizing that President Trump might be gone in two years—and with American Jewry? Clearly, the current coalition’s ties are strained with both the Democrats and key non-orthodox segments of American Jewry. Both are essential to preserving the relationship with America. One factor in particular is generally overlooked in Israel: the American Jewish community has played an essential role in ensuring strong U.S.-Israel relations, including the American commitment of $38 billion in military assistance over the next ten years. This is a commitment that Trump inherited from his predecessor Obama. So, do all of the candidates recognize a problem with American Jews, and, if so, what will they do about it?
Quite apart from domestic issues, these issues deserve an airing and debate in advance of the election. We hope it takes place.
**David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as a senior policy advisor in the Office of the Secretary of State. Dennis Ross is the Institute’s William Davidson Distinguished Fellow and a former senior Middle East advisor in the White House. This article was originally published in Hebrew by Yediot Aharonot.

Policy dilemmas cloud NATO’s future
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/January 03/19
NATO is at a crossroads in terms of strategy moving forward. The Atlantic alliance faces challenges from within its membership, for example with Turkey, and from outside, specifically Russia. NATO is also stressed by extra-regional missions, such as in Afghanistan.
With members expected to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, NATO has committed to having 30 air squadrons, 30 combat vessels and 30 mechanized battalions ready to deploy within 30 days to defend the Baltic states by 2020. That commitment is going to be complicated by several factors. There is no doubt that NATO’s problems are still left over from the Cold War, in that individual member states are befuddled by clashes in culture and identity, mixed with corruption, that ultimately affects military capability. Newer NATO members, particularly in some parts of Eastern Europe, just do not seem to be full-fledged, supportive members of the alliance. True, concentrating on specific missions such as counter-narcotics is important, but any conventional war set in the European theater involving a NATO member, and reaching the level of a fully-functional conventional armed force to face a Russian action, is problematic. It is well proven that Russia uses corruption in Europe to weaken the political order in a NATO state to achieve strategic gain in the EU.
Nevertheless, NATO and the EU are united in their common values, strategic interests and a majority of member nations. In the last few years, the two organizations have developed closer cooperation to improve security for European citizens because of internal and external threats. This cooperation ranges from cyber defenses and addressing threats to building maritime security.
Importantly, NATO and the EU cooperate on crisis management operations that help with confidence-building. In Kosovo, the NATO peacekeeping force KFOR works closely in the field with the EU’s Rule of Law Mission. And the EU’s Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina is commanded by the NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and is located at NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. In Afghanistan, the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission and its predecessor, the International Security Assistance Force, have also cooperated with the EU’s Rule of Law Mission.
NATO and EU naval forces also work together in response to the refugee and migrant crisis in the Mediterranean. NATO deployed a maritime force to the Aegean Sea to conduct reconnaissance, monitoring and surveillance of illegal crossings, supporting Turkish and Greek authorities and the EU. In the central Mediterranean, NATO’s Operation Sea Guardian supports EU Operation Sophia with information and logistics. Clearly, both regional organizations are implementing their mandates.
NATO and the EU are united in their common values, strategic interests and a majority of member nations.
Russia remains a fundamental challenge to NATO because of a variety of sharp tensions, including in the Baltics and Ukraine. As such, NATO and Russia are meeting at a very high level in order to maintain an open line of communication for deconfliction. The Commander-in-Chief of NATO’s Armed Forces in Europe, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, met with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, in Baku last month. Scaparrotti also met with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, thanking him for offering Baku as a platform for such a meeting for the second time. He said Baku was the perfect venue for a NATO-Russia meeting.
Baku is important because Azerbaijan represents an important strategic transit between Europe and Afghanistan. Baku has good relations with NATO and has participated in Afghan operations, but it is also keenly aware of the Kremlin’s interests and balances perfectly between the two, for now. Azerbaijan’s energy plans are a subject that requires NATO-Russia attention in order to reduce misunderstandings in the short term.
It should be noted that US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford and Gerasimov have also been meeting in Baku to discuss issues face-to-face with the aim of easing tensions and preventing military incidents.
The third and most important factor in NATO’s outlook is what happens with Turkey. Debate rages over how to deal with an increasingly powerful and assertive Ankara, which now has a major say in Syria’s future. Aligned for the most part with Russia, NATO member Turkey is dancing with the devil for some observers in terms of its relationship with Moscow.
This relationship complicates NATO’s mission. With Ankara fighting a war in the Levant, Russia’s ability to pressure Ankara to achieve key geostrategic goals will give it an advantage against NATO in any future scenario. What is happening around the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and how Turkey is not reacting to Moscow’s moves against Ukraine is indicative.
In addition, Turkey's relationship with Iran challenges NATO because of America’s position on Syria. With a pull-out pending by the US, NATO is looking at a Levant where Turkey will have a major say in what happens next. That puts Turkey in a more powerful position within the NATO alliance by being able to throw its weight around — an attitude that NATO is not about.
With James Mattis now out at the Pentagon, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan’s business approach to NATO is going to trump strategic priorities. That factor needs to be seen now in terms of how NATO moves forward in the coming years, especially when calculating requirements in the Baltics versus other potential theaters.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Lexington Institute and a national security expert, specializing in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East. He worked for the RAND Corporation and publishes widely in the US and international media. Twitter: @tkarasik

US no longer the world’s policeman
Nathalie Goulet/Arab News/January 03/19
We must recognize that the Middle East has never been an area of great stability. Areas of lawlessness and rogue states have multiplied since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the disasters that followed. Unfortunately we all know the dramatic consequences for not only the region and its people, but for the whole world. Today Iraq asserts itself as a free country having conquered terrorism and, after the elections of 2018, things seem to have resumed a normal course. It’s almost miraculous.
Meanwhile, unpredictable US President Donald Trump, not content with ruining the policies of his predecessor (even though Barack Obama made his own mistakes in the region), distills a foreign policy full of contempt for multilateralism. He shows to the world at every available opportunity that he doesn’t care about diplomacy.
The US certainly does not want to be the world’s policeman anymore. In such a dangerous world, this brings the opposite of stability and security. The Trump administration unsurprisingly marked the US’ unconditional support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by moving, in defiance of international law, the US embassy to Jerusalem, denying the rights of the Palestinian people. It then imposed a fait accompli policy once more by deciding to take the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement and restore sanctions.
The US is using duplicity toward its allies, but is that any good for peace and stability?
In the mess we have just witnessed during Christmas week, there have been some stupendous decisions whose concomitance cannot be due to chance. After announcing the unilateral withdrawal of US troops from Syria, leaving the country in the hands of the Russians, Turks and Iranians, and abandoning the Kurds, the Trump administration trumpeted the decision of US ally Saudi Arabia to contribute to the reconstruction of this moribund country. For their part, Turkey and Iran announced on Dec. 20 an agreement to help meet the target of more than $30 billion.
All this must be closely examined. It can be recalled that, with Trump’s grace, US ally and NATO member Turkey has been allowed to continue trading with Iran, despite the latest sanctions. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is committed to rebuilding Syria, as President Bashar Assad declared that Iranian companies will play a major role in rebuilding the country.
The US is using duplicity toward its allies, but is that any good for peace and stability? Should we fear a new theater for a fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Washington should know that international politics is made up of precarious balances and that it has a leading role in shaping it.
Meanwhile, this new American policy shows up Europe’s extreme fragility and its inability to stand together and defend itself.  It is high time that the EU’s funds for security and defense were used to put in place a coherent and effective policy. This will be a major subject of discussion in the upcoming European elections and must be at the top of the list of candidates’ concerns. Europe must prepare for other Trumpian tsunamis and ensure its independence and security. What is happening in Syria and the Middle East should serve as a warning. It must find a way to recover its military and diplomatic sovereignty.
*Nathalie Goulet is a member of the Senate of France, representing the Orne department (Normandy). Twitter: @senateur61

Is this the beginning of the end for Sudan’s Omar Bashir?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 03/19
Political strife is not uncommon in Sudan, but the intensity and endurance of recent protests may well portend the end of the Bashir regime in the African country.
Omar Bashir has been in power in Sudan since 1989, and in typical fashion for post-colonial regimes in politically fractured countries, that longevity owes much to a repressive state apparatus that has systematically cracked down on any sign of political opposition, and the support of a unified military establishment – an establishment from which Bashir himself originated, where he was a Brigadier-General before he seized power in a military coup in an alliance with Islamist political forces. For now, that military establishment is holding firm behind the President. But that’s where the good news ends for Bashir. The current upheaval in the country owes to deteriorating economic conditions: the economy is struggling and price inflation is skyrocketing. And there is precious little that the Sudanese government can do about it. Prior to 2011, a significant chunk of the Sudanese economy was driven by oil production in the south of the country – oil was the country’s main export. But after a lengthy conflict, South Sudan eventually managed to secede and form an independent country in July 2011, taking with them a good 75 percent of Sudan’s oil fields. Disputes over exploitation rights did carry on, and South Sudan’s subsequent story was not a happy one, as the country promptly descended into a civil war that is still to be resolved, but those oil fields are now forever out of Khartoum’s control. And Sudan has been in stagflation ever since. If they were savvy, Bashir and his top military entourage should be looking to make a deal with the Umma Party: a quick, clean exit in exchange for judicial amnesty
Economic sector
What is worse, the country does not have any other major economic sector to look to, to take over the critical role the oil industry held in past decades. And after a good 7 years of struggling to sustain the flagging economy, nor does it have much in the way of reserves to dedicate to any kind of deep restructuring of production and trade needed to give that economy the boost it needs. Against this backdrop, the long repressed political discontent is bubbling back to the surface. And now it looks like people have started dying ‘bread protests’. This may well turn out to be the genie that cannot be put back into the bottle.
Once people get killed by the state when they are protesting the fact that they are starving, regimes do not usually survive. And Sudan does now seem to have a unified political opposition to make sure that happens, in the form of the Umma Party, led by the country’s last pre-military coup Prime Minister, Sadiq al-Mahdi, who recently returned to the country from exile, to a hero’s welcome.
Peaceful resolution
Unfortunately, it seems there is little chance that this situation will be resolved peacefully. The military is likely to continue to remain entrenched behind Bashir, and Bashir himself will not want to go anywhere. Not least because he has been indicted by the ICC as a war criminal for his ‘handling’ of the Darfur conflict. Political office has shielded him, and the top brass of the country’s military from the consequences of such an indictment, but if they were to leave power there would be hell to pay before the international community for those war crimes, before the Sudanese people for the years of brutal repression, and before the political opposition, especially Mr Mahdi, for the bitter history between them. So Omar Bashir is stuck having to defend an indefensible fortress in Khartoum. It remains to be seen how long the military can hold him in power for, but if they were savvy, Bashir and his top military entourage should be looking to make a deal with the Umma Party around about now: a quick, clean exit in exchange for judicial amnesty. They may not trust the opposition to keep their end of the bargain, but the longer they hold on, the less viable even such an exit becomes, and the more likely it is that the country will descend into a protracted civil war.

A lesson in humility and the final bullet
Ghassan Charbel//Al Arabiya/January 03/19
Here you are again standing at the end of the year. You have no choice but to turn the page. You only have one bullet in your gun and have no choice but to shoot. The final day of the year. A year of your life has just ended.
At the end of each year, I have a habit of heading to a bookstore in the city I happen to be in at the time. I have learned that the journalist must stand before the treasures of a bookstore. It is a lesson he must retain in order to maintain humility and confront the illusions of the profession.
The bookstore informs you that you happen to know so little and that you have to keep seeking more knowledge. At best, your contribution will be nothing more than a drop in a turbulent ocean. News often fades hours after it breaks out. Articles have a shorter lifespan and die before sunset.
The bookstore defies you with its treasures and classics. It reminds you of men who gambled their lives under the delusion that their experiences will stave off the sword of time. What pretty delusions. It gives these individuals the challenge of trying.
A lesson in humility. The shelves hold names that have stood the test of time. They have reached the age of Twitter where short sentences shoot out like spears.
The bookstore defies you with its treasures and classics. It reminds you of men who gambled their lives under the delusion that their experiences will stave off the sword of time
In awe
I am in awe at how a poem can pierce a body like a spear. Here is al-Mutanabbi, who sits in the bookstore as if he owns the place. He laughs at the ever-changing authors on the shelves, while he remains. I am in awe at the ability of a novel written in the 19th century to keep you up at night. I am in awe of the French or Russian author’s ability to speak to the youth two centuries after penning their works. I am also in awe of unyielding pioneering men, who launched the Renaissance without heeding the dark forces around them.
I am very grateful to individuals who spend their lives trying to uncover new details in the lives of men who changed the world. They spend years attempting to put on trial again the likes of Stalin, de Gaulle, Mao, Saddam, Gaddafi and Kim, whether to exonerate or condemn them again. A critique of the past is necessary in order to refresh the minds and memories.
I asked the young vendor about new books. How nice it is to find a new book. She pointed me to them and lamented that the young generation “does not read.” This is not true. They are the sons of a different time.
They read in a different way, whether on their smartphone, book-reader or social media. This is perhaps why a trip to a bookstore sometimes feels like a farewell visit. In the future, it may not look the way it does now. It is destined to keep abreast the new readers, their culture and habits. The new authors also share this same fate. I left the bookstore and the taxi driver took me passed Hamra Street where I saw the As Safir newspaper building shrouded in darkness. I was saddened by the sight. I can still see the teary face of its editor-in-chief and friend Talal Salman.
Losing patience
Nothing is more painful than losing your voice. I passed by the Dar al-Hayat building, where I had worked. I also found a dark building. Such a good work experience deserves a better ending. I passed by the An Nahar building and was happy to see that its lights were still on under the brave leadership of editor-in-chief Nayla Tueni as the industry confronts the technological revolution. I worked at An Nahar after graduating from university. It was a strict environment. A news article is one thing, an oped is another. You have no room for error. If you do, you should never do it again. I learned to be accurate in my descriptions, concise in my headlines. You are allowed to use your imagination without misleading the reader. You are not allowed to use the space given to you to settle scores or for defamation. Your duty is to always respect the law, the reader’s intelligence and the image of the newspaper. Heading to the newspaper was like visiting the bookstore on a daily basis. Ghassan Tueni was good at discovering talented youth. He did not fear promising rising stars, but instead pushed them to do better.
On my way back home, I passed the dark Dar Assayyad building. Decades at an institution established by Saeed Freiha came to an end. Al Anwar also became dark and I can still see the tears of its editor-in-chief and friend Rafik Khoury. Nothing is more difficult than losing your voice. The problem with journalism in Lebanon is the same in all countries. Sadness and elegies will not help resolve it. It has no choice but to join the massive revolutions. Newspapers do not die. They come back in new modern forms. No one has the right to close the door to the other’s freedom of expression. Change is difficult and needs a strong will, imagination and new mentalities.