LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 02/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Vengeance is mine, I will repay.’ And again, ‘The Lord will judge his people.’It is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the living God
Letter to the Hebrews 10/26-31: “If we wilfully persist in sin after having received the knowledge of the truth, there no longer remains a sacrifice for sins, but a fearful prospect of judgement, and a fury of fire that will consume the adversaries. Anyone who has violated the law of Moses dies without mercy ‘on the testimony of two or three witnesses.’ How much worse punishment do you think will be deserved by those who have spurned the Son of God, profaned the blood of the covenant by which they were sanctified, and outraged the Spirit of grace? For we know the one who said, ‘Vengeance is mine, I will repay.’ And again, ‘The Lord will judge his people. ’It is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the living God.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 01-02/19
Lebanon: Meeting to Contain Tension Between 'Hezbollah', Aoun’s Movement
Hariri: Lebanon must form govt after months of deadlock
Rahi heads New Year's mass in Bkirky, calls for forming minigovernment comprised of competent specialists
Lebanon Files Complaint to UN over Israeli Violations
Israeli Army Chief: We May Not Find All Attack Tunnels
Lebanese Minister: Army, UNIFIL Cooperation Ensured Stability in South
Lebanon to Resume Consultations over Cabinet Formation Wednesday
AFC Asian Cup 2019: Lebanon announce 23man final squad for the tournament

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 01-02/19
Pope ode to motherhood ushers in 2019 after disastrous 2018
Iran Threatens US Forces in Gulf
Iran Reveals Talks with Afghanistan Taliban
Israel’s Largest Opposition Bloc Splits
Israeli PM Says Corruption Charges Will Not Push him to Resign
Israel’s Netanyahu said would not resign during possible indictment hearing
Israeli general sees possible threat from Iraq as Iran’s clout grows
US and Israel exit UN cultural agency, claiming bias
Netanyahu says Israel is Arabs’ ‘ally’ against Iran
Syria Demobilizes Recruits Enlisted in 2010
Iraq Strikes Positions of ISIS Leaders in Syria
French Defense Minister in Jordan to Visit Troops Battling ISIS
Fatah Accuses Hamas of Detaining Hundreds of its Supporters
Egyptian Government to Regulate Dozens of Churches
Iraqi jets strike Daesh sites in Syria as Trump slows pullout schedule
Trump Orders Slowdown of US Withdrawal from Syria
Monitor: 2018 Saw Lowest Death Toll in Syria Confli
Israel Opposition in Dramatic Split ahead of Election
UK Police Probe Manchester Knifings as 'Terrorist' Attack

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 01-02/19
Israeli Army Chief: We May Not Find All Attack Tunnels/Jerusalem Post/January 01/19
Will renewed US pressure bring Iranian regime into line/Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/January 01/18
Why Eastern Syria matters to everyone in the Middle East/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 01/19
Can Saif al-Islam Qaddafi become President of Libya/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 01/18
New Year, new Congress and renewed political disaster for the Middle East/Walid Jawad/Al Arabiya/January 01/18
The European Union: An Authoritarian Body with a Humanitarian Face/Jiří Payne/Gatestone Institute/January 01/19
US Must Define its Relationship with Baghdad/Meghan O’Sullivan/Bloomberg/January 01/19
Life is Getting Harder for Central Banks/Mohamed El-Erian/Bloomberg//January 01/19
What is the role of Turkey in Syria/Khaled Al-Sulaiman/Al Arabiya/January 01/19
What has changed in Saudi Arabia/Salman al-Dosary/Al Arabiya/January 01/19
US pullout from Syria, a trap or a true lifeline/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/January 01/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 01-02/19
Lebanon: Meeting to Contain Tension Between 'Hezbollah', Aoun’s Movement
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Despite stalled efforts to form the cabinet in Lebanon, there are moves made at several fronts to dissipate obstacles hindering the launch of new initiatives that might ease the birth of a new government, eight.Asharq Al-Awsat learned on Sunday that head of the coordination unit in Hezbollah, Wafiq Safa visited lately President Michel Aoun at the Baabda Presidential Palace to discuss relations between Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and the party. “The two sides did not discuss new nominees for the Sunni ministerial portfolio representing the six deputies,” an informed source said. The FPM and Hezbollah witnessed tensed relations in the past week and exchanged accusations after the six Sunni deputies allied with the Shi’ite party have opposed candidate Jawad Adra, who would have entered the government as a member of the president’s bloc and not Hezbollah’s.
The dispute is mainly linked to the question of who gets the ‘blocking third’ in the government. At the level of the distribution of ministerial shares, Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying that he does not mind giving up the Environment Ministry, which the FPM demands. However, he refused to get the Ministry of Information or Ministry of Displaced in return. Both, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai and the Phalange Party are demanding a small cabinet, while head of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea asked why President Michel Aoun and the Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri had not yet decided on forming a government. "What I cannot understand is why Prime Minister Hariri and President Aoun do not exercise their right to sign the decree to form a government, especially since we cannot leave Lebanon and its economy for its own destiny," he said.For his part, Rai called Sunday for forming a mini-cabinet, saying: "We are convinced of forming a mini-government comprised of competent specialists who are impartial to take on State responsibilities and are able to work immediately on solving the country's crises."

Hariri: Lebanon must form govt after months of deadlock
AFP, Beirut/Tuesday, 1 January 2019/Lebanon’s prime minister-designate, Saad Hariri, warned Tuesday a government needs to be formed as the country faces a tough economic situation after months of political deadlock. “We have fallen behind -- we must form the government”, he told reporters at the presidential palace, after a long meeting with President Michel Aoun. “The president and I are determined to meet again and finish this issue, because the country cannot continue without a government,” Hariri said. He called for political factions in the multi-confessional country to cooperate on reviving the political process. Lebanon is governed by a complex system that guarantees a delicate balance between religious communities and their political parties, so decisions are made by consensus, making for protracted bargaining.
May elections
The country’s parliamentary elections in May were the first for nine years but lawmakers have since failed to form a government. In mid-November, Hariri accused his main political rival – the Hezbollah – of obstructing the formation of a new cabinet. A month later, he promised that Lebanon would have a government “by the end of the year”.The slow process has worried observers, as the economy is teetering on the brink of disaster, hit hard by the fallout from the conflict that has ravaged neighboring Syria since 2011.“The economic situation is difficult, but this is not to say it is impossible,” Hariri said Tuesday. The international community pledged up to $11.5 billion in aid and loans for Lebanon at a conference in Paris in April. But the promised funding is largely destined for infrastructure projects, which cannot be actioned without a new cabinet.

Rahi heads New Year's mass in Bkirky, calls for forming minigovernment comprised of competent specialists
Tue 01 Jan 2019/NNA - Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros Rahi, called Monday during New Year's message for forming a mini-cabinet, saying: "We are convinced of forming a mini-government comprised of competent specialists who are impartial to take on State responsibilities and able to work immediately on solving the country's crises."Rahi urged Lebanese officials to show responsibility in carrying out the necessary reforms in public sector and reduce the deficit away from the political sectarian interference. "Policians should lead the state and public administrations out of partisan, political and sectarian subordination to be replaced with loyalty to the country and the interest of the citizens, and put an end to financial and political corruption and protect public money from waste and theft," Rahi added. From Isaiah perspective, family and community heads must work together for the absolute good so that divine grace, truth, justice and peace prevail in this World, Rahi concluded. Following the mass, felicitators paid a visit to the Patriarch.

Lebanon Files Complaint to UN over Israeli Violations
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 31 December, 2018/The Lebanese Foreign Ministry submitted on Monday a complaint to the United Nations over the “dangerous Israeli violations that are threatening the stability of the region.”The violations are a “blatant violation of Security Council resolution 1701,” said Lebanon’s permanent ambassador to the UN Amal Mudallali. In addition, caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil instructed the Lebanese consulate in Montreal to file a complaint to the International Civil Aviation Organization over Israel’s practices that are threat to civil aviation. Such violations could have led to a major human catastrophe, said the complaint. The complaints were made after Israel last week used Lebanese airspace to launch strikes against positions near the Syrian capital Damascus. Reports said the strikes targeted Hezbollah leaders and a number of Iranian positions.
The Foreign Ministry said it was exerting all possible efforts to deter Israel from committing its flagrant violations.

Israeli Army Chief: We May Not Find All Attack Tunnels
Jerusalem Post/January 01/19
‘We’ve thwarted Hezbollah invasion ambitions’
Operation Northern Shield may not uncover all of Hezbollah’s tunnels, but should end its aspirations to invade Israel, said IDF intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Tamir Heyman at the Calcalist conference in Tel Aviv on Monday. The statement was the first public acknowledgment in weeks that the operation may not end the Hezbollah attack tunnel threat, although the comments emphasized Israel’s ability to deter a Hezbollah invasion. “I want to emphasize that we are not talking about an operation whose goal is to destroy the attack tunnel capability of Hezbollah, but rather…to thwart Hezbollah’s primary attack plan,” he said. Heyman said that Hezbollah’s plan had been to “conquer villages on the Northern border and to penetrate the area near the border,” that would prevent Israel from unleashing a stronger military force or to focus its attacks solely on the Lebanese side of the border. While the IDF has already uncovered five Hezbollah tunnels – Hamas had 31 in 2014 – Heyman implied that even if the IDF did not uncover all of the tunnels, it could blunt the threat. He added that while the IDF’s highly classified plan in the North was primarily to eliminate attack tunnels, there were broader goals to the operation. The IDF intelligence chief explained that even though Hezbollah was deterred from a war, it may have unrealistic expectations that it could still invade Israel and slaughter Israeli citizens in border villages without leading to a war.  Heyman’s message was that by severely blunting Hezbollah’s attack tunnel abilities, even if some abilities remained, it would be heavily discouraged from trying to mount even a limited invasion. In other words, Hezbollah might fear the IDF’s abilities to deter such an attack, this goes beyond the tunnels which have already been destroyed. All of this would fulfill the IDF’s goal of making a war with Hezbollah less likely. Finally, he said that the IDF’s experience in uncovering the attack tunnels opened up new tactical advantages it could use against Hezbollah tunnels also on the Lebanese side of the border. Heyman did not specify whether he was referring to a hypothetical war scenario or covert operations.

Lebanese Minister: Army, UNIFIL Cooperation Ensured Stability in South
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/Lebanese caretaker Defense Minister Yaacoub al-Sarraf hailed on Monday the cooperation between the army and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), saying it helped ensure stability in the South amid Israel’s Northern Shield operation. Israel launched in early December the operation to uncover and destroy border tunnels dug by Hezbollah from Lebanon into its territories. As of last week, it has discovered five tunnels. Sarraf made his remarks as he embarked on a tour of southern Lebanon. He held talks with UNIFIL commander Stefano Del Col at the peacekeeping force’s headquarters in al-Naqoura. The minister praised during the talks the military’s readiness to confront any challenge. Moreover, he stated that Israel committed in 2018 “a record number of violations” that are still ongoing against Lebanon. The international community must exert efforts to stop its behavior, Sarraf demanded. He stressed that Beirut is committed to international resolutions, especially 1701, adding that it has no intention to attack anyone. Resolution 1701 helped end a 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Lebanon to Resume Consultations over Cabinet Formation Wednesday
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/Talks to resolve the cabinet formation crisis are expected to resume Wednesday based on the same initiative that failed last week to produce any positive outcomes. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday there are efforts to revive the old initiative, which stipulated that the Consultative Gathering bloc be represented by the share of President Michel Aoun. The initiative had failed last week when the six Sunni deputies allied with Hezbollah opposed the candidacy of Jawad Adra, who would have become minister as a member of the president’s bloc, not Hezbollah’s. The dispute is mainly linked to the question of who gets the “blocking third” in the government. Such a bloc would have enough ministers to obstruct any cabinet decision. However, the sources said: “There is information that the Free Patriotic Movement might back away from its insistence that the new minister be from Aoun’s share.”In recent days, Hezbollah and leaders from the FPM, which is headed by caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, succeeded in containing tension between their supporters that was sparked by the delay in the formation of the government. Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri offered his apologies over the delay. “We must form a new cabinet at the beginning of next year,” he was quoted as saying Sunday. Other sources close to the formation process told Asharq Al-Awsat that General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim proposed forming a 32-member cabinet. This would see two seats added to the government, one would go to the Alawite sect and another would go to Christian minority sects. However, Ibrahim set a condition that the Alawite minister be from former PM Najib Miqati’s share and the Christian be from Aoun’s share. Such a proposal would guarantee the representation of the six independent Sunni deputies and would give Hariri an additional Sunni minister from his share. Hariri had reportedly completely rejected this proposal during talks with Ibrahim, the sources revealed.

NYE Celebratory Gunfire Hurts 5 as Car Accident Kills 2
Naharnet/January 01/19/The Directorate General of the Internal Security Forces announced Tuesday the success of its security plan for New Year's Eve, saying the celebrations went without major incidents. It said five people were lightly injured by celebratory gunfire in various regions and two people were killed in a traffic accident on the Tayr Dibba-Tyre road in the South. Several people were also injured in other traffic accidents. As for the celebratory gunfire, one of the shooters was arrested and several others were identified according to the ISF statement. Efforts are underway to arrest the others.

AFC Asian Cup 2019: Lebanon announce 23man final squad for the tournament
Tue 01 Jan 2019/NNA - Lebanon have announced their 23-member final squad for the AFC Asian Cup 2019 which is to begin in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on January 5. The team will be captained by 31-year-old Nejmeh striker Hassan Maatouk and is coached by Montenegrin coach Miodrag Radulovic. The Cedars are pooled with Qatar, DPR Korea and Saudi Arabia in Group E of the Asian Cup. They will open their campaign against Qatar at the Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi on January 9 before facing Saudi Arabia at the Rashid Al-Maktoum Stadium in Dubai on January 12. Their final group match will be against North Korea at the Al-Sharjah Stadium. It is worth mentionning that Lebanon returned to the Asian Cup after a gap of 19 years in what would be their second appearance in the continent’s biggest international football tournament. Their first appearance came back in 2000 when they hosted the event as well. Back then, The Cedars were knocked out of the group stage after registering two draws and a loss in their three group encounters. This time though, they aim to go one step forward into the knockout stage. --- Fox Sports Asia

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 01-02/19
Pope ode to motherhood ushers in 2019 after disastrous 2018
Tue 01 Jan 2019/NNA - Pope Francis has ushered in the New Year with an ode to motherhood, reminding the faithful that a mother's example and embrace is the only antidote to today's disjointed world of solitude and misery. Francis celebrated Mass Tuesday in St. Peter's Basilica to formally open 2019. In his homily Francis urged Catholics to allow themselves to be led again as children are led by their mothers. He said: "We need to learn from mothers that heroism is shown in self-giving, strength in compassion, wisdom in meekness."The New Year followed a disastrous 2018 for Francis, which opened with the explosion of the global sex abuse scandal and ended with the sudden departures of the Vatican spokesman and deputy in a sign of discord and dysfunction within the Holy See. --- AP

Iran Threatens US Forces in Gulf
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/Iranian Major General Mohammad Bagheri headed on Monday to the occupied Emirati island of Abu Musa amid Iranian-US tension in the Gulf Sea. Bagheri was quoted as saying by Fars news agency, “Iran’s regional enemies should know that alongside a pacifist doctrine, Iran has a powerful military force that are ready to protect Iran’s territorial integrity, and also hold accountable countries that proposed (the US presence).” Bagheri’s threats come two months after US introduced sanctions against Iran. Last May, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo laid out 12 tough conditions for any "new deal" with Tehran, including asking Iran to completely stop uranium enrichment, preventing nuclear proliferation, releasing US citizens detained in Iran and stopping the support of terrorism. Bagheri claimed that “the security of the region could be secured through the cooperation of all states,” adding that “foreign presence harms such target.” Sepah News reported that the Iranian General examined the readiness of the Iranian forces at the island of Abu Musa on Monday and said some states should not rely on the US, particularly following Washington’s decision to withdraw from the region. Iranian circles on Monday doubted the US withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan. Last week, and following a long absence in the region, the USS John C. Stennis entered the Gulf, and was shadowed by the Revolutionary Guards’ speed boats. About 30 Revolutionary Guard boats have trailed the USS John C. Stennis and its strike force last month.

Iran Reveals Talks with Afghanistan Taliban
Kabul – Jamal Ismail/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 01 January/2019/Taliban representatives from Afghanistan held another round of talks in Tehran to put an end to the 17-year-long conflict, the Iranian foreign ministry said Monday. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said that talks between the Taliban delegation and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi took place Sunday with the knowledge of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. Ghasemi said the two sides discussed "security issues aimed at driving the peace process in Afghanistan."He also said that Araqchi will visit Afghanistan in the next two weeks to discuss common cultural, economic and political affairs. He will also tackle strategic cooperation between the two neighbors. Five joint committees are dedicated to addressing this cooperation, said the foreign ministry. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani confirmed last week in Kabul that such talks have taken place in the past and would continue. Taliban reiterated rejection to meet any representative of the Afghan government in Kabul. There will not be any peace deal in Afghanistan before the withdrawal of foreign forces, it affirmed. The movement turned down a proposal by US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad for a six-month ceasefire, during his talks with a Taliban delegation two weeks ago in Abu Dhabi. The talks were attended by representatives from Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Iran is seeking to play a greater role in the Afghanistan peace process. The Taliban, meanwhile, is seeking to rule the country should foreign forces withdraw. It has been assuring Afghanistan’s neighbors that its rule will guarantee peace, security and stability. Months earlier, Taliban struck understandings with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It also discussed with Pakistani authorities affairs of Afghani refugees in Pakistan.

Israel’s Largest Opposition Bloc Splits
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 01 January/2019/Israel's largest opposition bloc split on Tuesday after the leader of the Labor Party announced it would run independently in the April elections.
Avi Gabbay said the Labor Party will run without the Hatnua movement of former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. The two had made up the Zionist Union bloc, which earned 24 seats in previous elections, finishing second only to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party.
But the union has recently been polling in single digits, a historic low for a bloc led by the Labor Party that founded Israel and led it for its first 30 years. “I hoped and believed this alliance would bring about our blossoming, a real connection and we would complement each other. But the public is smart, saw this is not the situation and distanced itself from us,” Gabbay said in a nod to the Zionist Union’s weak showing in opinion polls.“Tzipi, I wish you success in the election - in any party you’re in,” he said, announcing the split on live television.The move appeared to catch Livni by surprise. “I’m not responding. I will make my decisions. Thank you,” she said, and then left the room. In a statement shortly after Gabbay's announcement, she said it was "good that the doubts had been cleared," vowing to focus on winning the upcoming poll. Gabbay's decision is the latest realignment ahead of the election and more are expected.
On Saturday, two right-wing ministers, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, announced they were splitting from their Jewish Home party to form a new one that they hope will attract a mixture of secular and religious voters. A popular former armed forces chief of staff, Benny Gantz, has also signaled his intention to run by forming a new centrist party. Opinion polls have predicted Netanyahu will easily win the snap election he called for April 9, taking between 27 to 31 of parliament’s 120 seats - enough to lead a right-wing coalition government, despite three corruption investigations against him. Zionist Union trails far behind Netanyahu’s Likud and centrist parties in the polls, which predict it will capture only eight to nine seats compared with the 24 it took in its second-place finish in the previous election in 2015. Livni, who became a leading advocate of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, entered politics in 1999 as a member of the right-wing Likud party, serving in several cabinet posts and eventually moving to the center-left as head of the now-defunct Kadima party. She was foreign minister from 2006 to 2009 and founded Hatnua in 2012, joining up with Labor to establish the Zionist Union for the 2015 ballot won by Netanyahu, now in his fourth term.

Israeli PM Says Corruption Charges Will Not Push him to Resign
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019 /Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Monday that he will not put off re-election during next year’s elections if the attorney general decides to file criminal charges, reported The Associated Press. Police have recommended that Netanyahu be indicted on corruption charges, but Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit must make the final decision. If he decides to indict, Netanyahu is still entitled to defend himself at a hearing before formal charges are filed. Mandelblit has not said whether he will act before April elections. Speaking in Brazil, Netanyahu said the law does not require him to step aside before any hearing. He stated Mandelblit should not take any action before the election unless the hearing can also be completed by then. Netanyahu added: "In a democracy, leaders are chosen through a vote, not through a partially completed legal process."

Israel’s Netanyahu said would not resign during possible indictment hearing
Reuters, Rio de Janeiro/Tuesday, 1 January 2019/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he would not resign from office should the attorney general accept police recommendations to indict him before his side of the case is heard. Netanyahu last week announced a snap election would be held in April, seeking a fresh political mandate that could help him weather possible charges in corruption investigations. The Israeli leader is enmeshed in three graft cases and denies any wrongdoing. Should Israel’s attorney-general decide to press charges against Netanyahu, he would announce the indictment pending a hearing, after which charges could be filed in court. Asked at a news conference in Rio de Janeiro whether he would bow out of the election race should that happen, Netanyahu said: “I don’t intend to resign.”“According to the law, the prime minister does not have to resign during the hearing process ... The hearing doesn’t end until my side is heard,” he said. “Imagine what would happen if a prime minister is ousted before the hearing is finished, and then after the hearing they decide to close the case. It’s absurd. It’s a terrible blow to democracy.”The indictment decision had been expected within weeks, but some analysts say the attorney general could opt to delay the move out of concern he might influence the outcome of the election. The Justice Ministry has promised to continue its work “independent of political events”. Opinion polls show Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party easily winning the April 9 vote, which was originally scheduled for November. Netanyahu held the news conference during a trip to Brazil for the inauguration of President-elect Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday. He is the first Israeli prime minister to visit Brazil.

Israeli general sees possible threat from Iraq as Iran’s clout grows
Reuters, Tel AvivTuesday, 1 January 2019/Iran could use its growing clout in Iraq to turn it into a springboard for attacks against Israel, the chief of Israeli military intelligence said on Monday. Israel sees the spread of Tehran’s influence in the region as a growing threat, and has carried out scores of air strikes in civil war-torn Syria against suspected military deployments and arms deliveries by Iranian forces supporting Damascus. Iraq, which does not share a border with Israel, is technically its enemy but was last an open threat in the 1991 Gulf War. Since a US-led invasion in 2003 toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim, Israel has worried that Iraq’s Shiite majority could tilt towards Iran. “Iraq is under growing influence of the (covert Iranian foreign operations unit) Quds Force and Iran,” military intelligence chief Major-General Tamir Hayman told a conference in Tel Aviv. With US President Donald Trump disengaging from the region, Hayman said, the Iranians may “see Iraq as a convenient theatre for entrenchment, similar to what they did in Syria, and to use it as a platform for a force build-up that could also threaten the State of Israel”.Iraq’s prime minister said on Sunday that security officials from Baghdad had met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, and hinted at a bigger Iraqi role fighting ISIS extremist group as US troops withdraw. Citing Iranian, Iraqi and Western sources, Reuters reported in August that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Shiite allies in Iraq. Baghdad denied the findings. The following week, Israel said it might attack such sites in Iraq, effectively expanding a campaign now focused on Syria. Hayman predicted 2019 would bring “significant change” to Syria, where Assad has beaten back rebels with the help of Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah reinforcements, and where Trump this month ordered a pullout of US troops. “This presence of Iran, with Syria’s return to stabilization under a Russian umbrella, is something we are watching closely,” he said. Israel has also been monitoring Iranian conduct since Trump quit the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran in May and re-imposed US sanctions. The deal placed caps on nuclear projects with bomb-making potential, though Iran denied having such designs. Trump, with Israeli support, deemed the caps insufficient. “We assess that Iran will strive to stay within the deal but will do everything in order to find ways of circumventing the American sanctions,” Hayman said.

US and Israel exit UN cultural agency, claiming bias
The Associated Press, ParisTuesday, 1 January 2019/The United States and Israel have quit the UN’s educational, scientific and cultural agency, arguing the organization fosters anti-Israel bias.The withdrawal took effect on the stroke of the New Year, after the Trump administration and the Israeli prime minister announced their decision to leave UNESCO in 2017. While it’s largely procedural, the moment marks a blow to the agency, which the US co-founded after World War II to foster peace. The US suspended its funding to UNESCO after it admitted Palestine as a member in 2011. The US has demanded “fundamental reform” in the agency that is best known for its World Heritage program to protect cultural sites and traditions. UNESCO’s director general, Audrey Azoulay, has recently championed a Holocaust education website and the UN’s first educational guidelines on fighting anti-Semitism.

Netanyahu says Israel is Arabs’ ‘ally’ against Iran
AFP, Rio de Janeiro/Tuesday, 1 January 2019/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Arab countries viewed Israel as an “indispensable ally” fighting Iran and ISIS extremist group. That evaluation, he told Brazil’s Globo TV during a visit to Rio, has caused “a revolution in relations with the Arab world.”The comments came as Israel has stepped up air strikes on Iranian positions in neighboring Syria, and as Israel digested an abrupt decision by President Donald Trump to withdraw US troops from Syria. Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons to destroy his country. Israel, he said, had shown itself to be active in battling “radical Islam, violent Islam - either the one led by radical Shiites led by Iran, or the one led by the radical Sunnis led by Daesh (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda.” “Unfortunately we have not made any advance with the Palestinians. Half of them are already under the gun of Iran and of radical Islam,” Netanyahu added. Asked if he could ever contemplate sitting down with an Iranian leader to talk peace, Netanyahu replied: “If Iran remains committed to our destruction the answer is no.”The only way, he said, would be “if Iran undergoes a total transformation.”Netanyahu was in Brazil to attend Tuesday’s inauguration of the Latin American country’s new, pro-Israel president, Jair Bolsonaro. On the sidelines of the ceremony, Netanyahu was to hold talks with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is also among the visiting dignitaries. They were expected to discuss the US troop pullout from Syria and Iranian activities in the Middle East.

Syria Demobilizes Recruits Enlisted in 2010
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/Syria's army issued Monday demobilization orders for a new round of men conscripted for compulsory service in 2010, a year before the war started, reported AFP. The army issued "an order to demobilize officers from Recruitment Class 103" and recruits drafted in 2010, state news agency SANA said. The order, which comes into effect on Wednesday, also demobilizes officers and reservists enrolled before July 2012. Those who wished to continue fighting in regime ranks could request to do so, SANA reported the order as saying. The decision ends the drawn-out deployment of Syrians who enlisted for between 18 months and two years of mandatory military service that year, but who ended up serving for more than eight years because of the conflict. In May, the army "issued a decision to demobilize the officers and reservists of Recruitment Class 102", also drafted in 2010. In previous orders issued in November and earlier this month, the army let go other recruits -- officers and reservists conscripted in 2013, said AFP. Before Syria's war started in 2011, men aged 18 and older had to serve between 18 months and two years in the armed forces, after which they remained part of the reserves. But when war broke out, anyone enlisted remained deployed on active duty.

Iraq Strikes Positions of ISIS Leaders in Syria
Baghdad – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/The Iraqi army announced Monday that its fighter jets have carried out a strike against a meeting of ISIS leaders near Deir Ezzour in Syria. The strike destroyed the building they were gathered in, it said without offering further details. The statement said F-16 fighter jets carried out the raid around al-Sousa village in eastern Syria, as “30 leaders from ISIS gangs” met in the building. The strike came a day after Iraq’s government hinted at greater involvement for its armed forces in Syria as the US begins withdrawing troops from the country. Iraq fears that ISIS terrorists in Syria will try to cross the border, and analysts warn of increasing insurgent-style attacks in both countries.Baghdad has carried out several air raids in Syrian territory with the agreement of regime leader Bashar al-Assad. Its army and Popular Mobilization Forces have reinforced at the border in recent months. Last week, the Syrian regime granted Baghdad authorization to carry out strikes against ISIS without waiting for permission from Damascus.

French Defense Minister in Jordan to Visit Troops Battling ISIS
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/French Defense Minister Florence Parly arrived in Jordan on Monday to visit troops battling the ISIS terrorist group. She is set to meet in Amman with Jordanian Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz before heading to the H5 airbase from which French fighter jets take off for sorties against the terrorists. The minister's last-minute trip to Jordan comes on the heels of US President Donald Trump's surprise decision in mid-December to pull out all 2,000 American troops stationed in Syria, saying "we've won" against ISIS. "The impromptu announcement of the US withdrawal from (Syria) caused a lot of questions," Parly told reporters before landing. France does not "fully share President Trump's analysis", she said, adding the extremists were "not quite finished". "Our priority is to continue until the end."After sweeping across swathes of Syria and Iraq in 2014, ISIS’ cross-border "caliphate" has been erased by multiple offensives, pushing them back to just a few holdouts in the Syrian desert. In Syria, ISIS has been rolled back by separate offensives led by the country's army and an Arab-Kurdish alliance backed by the US-led coalition called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF are currently battling to expel ISIS from their eastern holdout near Syria's border with Iraq. Without the help of Washington, which carries out 90 percent of the coalition's strikes on ISIS, the French government has said it will be difficult to finish the extremists off for good, said AFP. "The United States plays a very important role as leader of the international coalition," said Parly, adding that it might not be "realistic or effective" to continue without Washington. The French military has deployed 1,200 soldiers as part of the anti-ISIS efforts, via air operations, artillery, special forces in Syria and training for the Iraqi army. A ranking French officer said the timeline for the US withdrawal "might not be incompatible" with the capture of the terrorists’ remaining territory, "if it is long enough and the (SDF) advance is fast enough". France will also have to deal with the issue of foreign extremists, especially Europeans, held by the SDF, now under threat of a looming Turkish offensive to clear Kurdish fighters from its border. "The US-led coalition has relied heavily on the Kurds as ground operators," said Parly, according to AFP. "Their fate is of major concern, and there are other questions about the future of a number of prisoners they are holding."

Fatah Accuses Hamas of Detaining Hundreds of its Supporters
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/The Palestinian Fatah movement announced Monday that Hamas security forces have arrested hundreds of its supporters, who back Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas. The Hamas-controlled Ministry of the Interior in Gaza denied the claim. Fatah spokesmen Atef Abu Seif said that more than 500 Fatah leaders and their sons have been arrested in Gaza since Sunday evening. “Our sons have been arrested because of their insistence on celebrating” the 54th anniversary of Fatah’s founding, he explained. He added that arrests took place through “kidnapping Fatah members from the streets, raiding their homes and confiscating posters and other material that were going to be used during our rallies.”He also accused Hamas of torturing some of the detainees. Fatah had previously announced that it will commemorate in Gaza on January 7 the anniversary of its establishment, where Abbas is to deliver a speech. Spokesman for the Interior Ministry in Gaza Iyad al-Bozum denied that Hamas is holding Fatah detainees, questioning the allegations against Hamas. He did, however, confirm that 38 people from Gaza have been summoned for questioning as part of measures to maintain the calm and order and prevent any tensions with Fatah. They have all since been released.

Egyptian Government to Regulate Dozens of Churches
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 1 January, 2019/An Egyptian committee concerned with regularizing churches agreed to regularize 80 unlicensed churches and church-affiliated service buildings, as part of the country’s efforts to facilitate the presence of new Christian worships in Egypt. The decision was taken during a meeting with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly on Monday. Christians make up around 10 percent of Egypt’s 104 million population, according to unofficial records. In a speech delivered in November, President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi asserted his protection to the freedom of worship, saying that the state is concerned with building a church in each new community, adding that “if there are other religions in Egypt, we will build places of worship for them.” His comments came two days after seven Christian pilgrims were gunned down on the road – including six members of the same family. The total number of regularized churches and their affiliated service buildings amounts to 588. In October, 76 churches and 44 affiliated buildings were licensed. Monday’s decision comes in accordance to Egypt’s law regarding regulating and building churches. Egyptian government spokesman Nader Saad said the committee charged with reviewing and legalizing unlicensed churches made its decision following a review of requests filed by congregations to regulate their churches’ statuses. The churches will be legalized on condition that they meet several conditions, including the need to meet the requirements for civil protection within a period of four months. On Sunday, the presidential office announced that a Supreme committee to counter sectarian strife would be established and chaired by the presidential advisor for security affairs. The Coptic Orthodox Church spokesperson, Boulos Halim, said that the presidential decree is a significant step on the right track to overcome sectarianism and extremism in Egypt. “The decree will encourage all the state’s institutions to fight terrorism and will create a positive reaction within the Egyptian street,” he said.

Iraqi jets strike Daesh sites in Syria as Trump slows pullout schedule
Arab News/December 31, 2018 /JEDDAH: Iraqi warplanes hit a meeting of Daesh leaders near Deir Ezzor in Syria on Monday, destroying the building they were gathered in, the military said in a statement. The statement said F-16 fighter jets carried out the raid around Al-Sousa village in eastern Syria, as “30 leaders from Daesh gangs” met in the building. The strike came a day after Iraq’s government hinted at greater involvement for its armed forces in Syria as the US begins withdrawing troops from the country.
But President Donald Trump appeared to backtrack on Monday on shock plans for an immediate pullout of US troops from Syria, but said his drive to end American involvement in wars made him a “hero.”The shift came as senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Trump had promised to stay in Syria to finish the job of defeating Daesh.Trump had earlier stunned allies — and prompted the resignation of his respected defense secretary, Jim Mattis — by abruptly announcing that Daesh was defeated and that US troops in Syria were ready to leave. However, in a tweet early Monday, President Trump seemed to signal a more cautious schedule for pulling out the troops which support local forces. “We’re slowly sending our troops back home to be with their families, while at the same time fighting” Daesh remnants, Trump wrote. In contrast to previously emphatic victory declarations, Trump said that Daesh “is mostly gone.”On Sunday, Graham, who is one of Trump’s principal allies in Congress, lunched at the White House to urge a rethink on Syria. Graham emerged after two hours, saying Trump “understands the need to finish the job.” “I think the president is committed to making sure when we leave Syria that Daesh is completely defeated,” Graham said. Another prominent critic of the pullout plan was retired US Army General Stanley McChrystal, the former commander of US and international forces in Afghanistan. On Sunday, he warned that a US pullout would likely cause “greater instability” in the region.

 Trump Orders Slowdown of US Withdrawal from Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 31 December, 2018/US President Donald Trump ordered a slowdown of the pullout of US troops in Syria, revealed Republican Senator Lindsey Graham Sunday. "I think we're in a pause situation," he said outside the White House after lunch with the president.Trump abruptly announced earlier this month that he was ordering the withdrawal of all the roughly 2,000 troops from war-torn Syria, with aides expecting it to take place swiftly. The president had declared victory over the ISIS terrorist group in Syria, though pockets of fighting remain. The decision was roundly criticized by his national security advisers and Democratic and Republican lawmakers. It prompted Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to step down. Graham had been an outspoken critic of Trump's decision. The announcement also had shocked lawmakers and American allies, including Kurds who have fought alongside the US against ISIS and face an expected assault by Turkey. "I think we're slowing things down in a smart way," Graham said, adding that Trump was very aware of the plight of the Kurds. Trump on Monday reiterated that he was slowly withdrawing troops. "If anybody but Donald Trump did what I did in Syria, which was an ISIS loaded mess when I became President, they would be a national hero. ISIS is mostly gone, we're slowly sending our troops back home to be with their families, while at the same time fighting ISIS remnants," Trump tweeted.Critics had contended that the US withdrawal would embolden Iran and Russia, which have supported the Syrian regime. National security adviser John Bolton was expected to travel to Israel and Turkey next weekend to discuss the president's plans with the American allies.

Monitor: 2018 Saw Lowest Death Toll in Syria Conflict
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 31 December, 2018/The year 2018 saw the lowest death toll in Syria’s nearly eight-year conflict, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Monday. A total of 19,666 people were killed this year as a result of the conflict, which erupted in 2011, it reported. "2018 was the lowest annual toll since the start of the conflict," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. The Britain-based monitor relies on a vast network of sources across Syria to document the war that broke out after the brutal repression of nationwide anti-regime protests in 2011. The death toll for 2017 stood at more than 33,000 and the highest annual figure was reached in 2014 -- the year the ISIS extremist group proclaimed a "caliphate" over large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq -- when 76,000 people were killed. Among those killed in 2018 were 6,349 civilians, 1,43

Israel Opposition in Dramatic Split ahead of Election
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 01/19/Israel's center-left opposition dramatically split on Tuesday ahead of an April 9 election, with leader Avi Gabbay announcing he would no longer partner with veteran politician Tzipi Livni as she sat stone-faced next to him. The announcement means the end of their Zionist Union alliance, which finished with the second most seats in the last general election in 2015 but which has since tumbled far in opinion polls. Zionist Union included Gabbay's Labor party and Livni's Hatnuah. It won 24 out of 120 seats in 2015, behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud, which won 30. Since Gabbay took over as head of Labour in 2017, his partnership with Livni had been uneasy and it was unclear if the alliance would continue for the election. He inherited the partnership from the previous Labor leader, Isaac Herzog.
"I still believe in partnership, in connections, in uniting a large camp committed to change, but successful connections necessitate friendship, upholding agreements and commitment to a course," Gabbay told a meeting of Zionist Union parliament members. "That didn’t happen in this partnership," he said, adding that he believed voters agreed. Livni approached the podium immediately afterwards and said tersely she would take time to reflect on Gabbay's announcement before responding. It was unclear if she was given advance notice. In a statement shortly after Gabbay's announcement, Livni said it was "good that the doubts had been cleared," vowing to focus on winning the upcoming poll. Gabbay's decision is the latest realignment ahead of the election and more are expected. On Saturday, two right-wing ministers, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, announced they were splitting from their Jewish Home party to form a new one that they hope will attract a mixture of secular and religious voters. A popular former armed forces chief of staff, Benny Gantz, has also signalled his intention to run by forming a new centrist party. Polls show Netanyahu is likely to remain prime minister after the elections despite corruption allegations against him.
The attorney general is expected to announce his decision on whether to charge Netanyahu in the coming months. The premier would not be required to step down if indicted. Netanyahu currently leads what is seen as the most right-wing government in Israel's history and says he would like to have a similar coalition after elections. "I won’t intervene in how the left divides its votes," he said in a statement after Gabbay's announcement. "What’s important to me is that the right forms the next government too, and continues to lead Israel."

UK Police Probe Manchester Knifings as 'Terrorist' Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 01/19/A British police probe into a triple stabbing at a Manchester railway station on New Year's Eve which injured three people is now being treated as "a terrorist investigation," the city's top officer said on Tuesday. Counter-terrorism officials have arrested a man who remains in police custody, and are searching an address where he recently lived in the northwestern English city, Chief Constable Ian Hopkins said. The suspect reportedly shouted "Allah" during what Hopkins called a "horrific attack" on three people, including a police officer, at Manchester Victoria station on Monday evening. A man and a woman, both in their 50s, are still being treated in hospital after sustaining "serious" injuries, while the officer was also stabbed in the shoulder, he added. "We are treating this as a terrorist investigation which is being led by counter-terrorism officers with support from Greater Manchester police," Hopkins told a briefing. "They were working through the night to piece together the details of what happened and to identify the man who was arrested," he said, adding that an address in the Cheetham Hill area of the city was being searched. Prime Minister Theresa May thanked emergency services for their "courageous response." She wrote on Twitter: "My thoughts are with those who were injured in the suspected terrorist attack in Manchester last night."
- 'pure fear' -
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which happened at around 8:50pm (2050 GMT) when many revelers in the city would have been enjoying New Year's Eve celebrations. Witness Sam Clack, 38, a BBC radio producer, said he heard the suspect shouting "Allah" before and during the attack. He added: "He shouted it before, he shouted it during it -- 'Allah'."Clack also quoted the suspect as saying: "As long as you keep bombing other countries, this sort of shit is going to keep happening."The witness said he heard the "most blood-curdling scream" and looked down the platform to see the attack unfolding.
"He came towards me," he added. "I looked down and saw he had a kitchen knife with a black handle with a good 12 inch (30-centimetre) blade. "It was just fear, pure fear."Clack said police officers used a stun gun and pepper spray before "six or seven" officers jumped on the man. Video footage of the incident shows the male suspect being overpowered by the officers. Manchester police said he was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder. The woman suffered injuries to her face and abdomen and the man was wounded in the abdomen, while a British Transport Police officer sustained a stab wound to the shoulder.
Their injuries were described as serious but not life-threatening.
'Dreadful'
The city's New Year celebrations went ahead in Albert Square despite the incident, with a firework display taking place as planned, though increased security was brought in. The city experienced a suicide attack in May 2017, when 22 people were killed and 139 wounded at a concert by the U.S. singer Ariana Grande at the Manchester Arena. The bomber, Salman Abedi, 22, was born and raised in Manchester. "I know that the events of last night will have affected many people and caused concern," Hopkins said Tuesday. "That the incident happened so close to the scene of the terrorist attack on May 22, 2017 makes it even more dreadful. "Our work will continue to ensure we get to the full facts of what happened and why it took place."

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 01-02/19
Will renewed US pressure bring Iranian regime into line?
السير جون جنكينز/ترى هل الضغط الأميركي المتجدد سيضع النظام الإيراني على الطريق الصحيح
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/January 01/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/70654/sir-john-jenkins-will-renewed-us-pressure-bring-iranian-regime-into-line-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%ac%d9%86%d9%83%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%89-%d9%87%d9%84/
I am writing this from Irbil in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
In the last few days, I have spoken to senior Kurds, ordinary Kurds, Iraqi Kurds, Turkish Kurds, Iranian Kurds, Sunni, Shiite, Christian, and Yazidi Kurds — and traveled widely through this stunningly beautiful land, up to Alqosh, Dohuk and back through Amedi.
The air is clear. At Fishkhabour on the Tigris, you stand at the junction of three countries. Drive east and you can see the snow on the mountain tops across the borders of Turkey and Iran. The shops and markets are full of Turkish and Iranian goods and agricultural products. The same Turkish trucks I used to see here and in Syria still grind down the highways from the north. People talk fondly about completing their education in Iran or sending their children to do so.
Geography is destiny. Turkey inevitably remains a constant factor, as we have recently seen again with the decision by the authorities in Sulaimaniyah to close the offices there of Tavgari Azadi, which is closely aligned with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and general concern about Turkish intentions in Syria. The Turkish army has been striking PKK positions in the mountains north of Dohuk — and more recently also in Sinjar and Makhmour — with impunity. But, even more than when I left Baghdad in 2011, you feel the weight of Iran.
The Iranian missile strikes on sites belonging to two Iranian Kurdish groups in Koya, between Irbil and Sulaimaniyah, about which I recently wrote, were clearly designed to send messages — to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to the US, to Israel and to Iranian Kurds who seek change. There are signs that the messages have been received. Iranian Kurds in the KRG — even those who advocate peaceful political change — now find it difficult to meet diplomats.
In Israel, the IDF has redoubled its efforts, through Operation Northern Shield, to complicate Hezbollah’s preparations for the next conflict by seeking out and destroying its tunnels under the border. It also continues, though at a slower pace, air strikes on what it claims are Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Hezbollah targets within Syria itself.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is again making strong statements about Iran’s ballistic missile program. But Iran seems undeterred and Qassem Soleimani remains the indispensable arbiter of Iraqi politics and security. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi has complained that he only lost the last elections because Iran turned against him. In contrast, the new president and prime minister of Iraq go out of their way to say how important good relations with Tehran are to them — and by implication to Irbil and Sulaimaniyah too. Hadi Al-Ameri, the leader of the biggest and most effective Shiite militia in Iraq, has been ever franker in public about the help Iran gives him and his counterparts in the Iran-aligned Al
Hashd Al-Shaabi — as have Hezbollah and increasingly Hamas. It is no longer uncommon to find pictures of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prominently displayed in Iraqi government offices.
At a time when many Western countries have weakened their own diplomatic capacities, perhaps foolishly believing those who argue that the future is digital and liberal democracy its own advert, Iran has shown the enduring power of analogue diplomacy, personal relationships, long-term obligations, material inducements, credible intimidation, deliverable military threats and religio-cultural penetration.
In Syria in the meantime, and in spite of official denials from the Iranian government, Iran continues the measured consolidation of its presence and its power, mirroring the equally measured strategy it followed in Iraq after 2003. As in Iraq, it seems to be shaping the demographics of particularly sensitive areas to protect the land routes to Lebanon and the Mediterranean that people used to say didn’t exist. More widely, it continues at very little cost to exploit the conflict in Yemen. And, in spite of its own 40-year record of assassinations, judicial killings and “deaths in custody” (including in December the social media activist Vahid Sayadi Nasiri), Iran has been the main beneficiary (ahead of Turkey and Qatar) of the entirely justified outrage that followed the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.
It is true that Iran has its own domestic problems. The economy was sluggish even before the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May. There were popular protests this time last year and, since then, inflation has risen and there are increasing shortages of basic goods. There is severe pressure on the country’s water resources, as rainfall declines and water capture, distribution and usage continue to be inefficiently managed. There is particular discontent in peripheral areas like Khuzestan, which has seen renewed unrest this year, including from Ahvaz militants, and Sistan and Baluchistan Province, where attacks by small Salafi insurgent groups have increased. Most recently, Ansar Al-Furqan launched a suicide attack on a police station in Chabahar, which the government has been planning to develop with Indian support as a port to rival Pakistan’s Gwadar across the border (which also suffers from its own security problems).
The reimposition in November of US sanctions on Iran’s oil and finance sectors, combined with pressure on other countries to comply, will undoubtedly have a further significant impact. Already we have seen oil exports fall sharply. This will cause significant damage, not least to the reputation of President Hassan Rouhani and his team, who staked much of their reputation on promises of economic development following the signing of the JCPOA in 2015.
The question is not so much whether Iran will also at some point denounce the JCPOA and resume its nuclear program — including clandestine weapons development — but whether renewed US pressure will stop the Iranian regime doing what it is doing in the wider region and indeed lead to its overthrow.
There are some who think there is a chance it will. There are even some who claim that Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah, is a credible figure around whom those who oppose the Islamic Republic can rally while we wait for its inevitable collapse. This is almost certainly wishful thinking. There is very little sign that the renewed pressure piled on the Islamic Republic will cause it to collapse or indeed persuade those millions of Iranians who wish it would change into something better to do something to accelerate this process. Most Iranians are too young to remember the shah. Even if they did, his era was far from a golden age for most people. And the lessons of the region since 2011 — for everyone, not just Arabs — are that revolutions destroy and external intervention complicates.
Iran has been through worse times — in the 1980s, for example, or under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — and the regime has stayed cohesive even when it has lost political popularity at home. The core of this cohesion is the IRGC and the indoctrinated zealots of the clerical-Basij complex that the supreme leader has expanded through massive funding programs over the past 30 years. If Rouhani falls, they will be the beneficiaries, not the royalists.
More generally, Iran has shown a determination, resilience and capacity for strategic patience unmatched by any of its rivals since 1979. We tend to focus on Iran’s balancing of its conventional military weakness through the development of a highly sophisticated and effective system of mosaic defense and asymmetric force projection — reflected in the delegation of operational authority down to field commanders and the sustained construction and support of proxy militias like Lebanese Hezbollah, Badr, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, Harakat Al-Nujaba and so forth. The Houthis may one day come to be seen as something similar. But equally important is what I call Iran’s asymmetric diplomacy. Through figures like Soleimani and a highly cohesive network of closely connected and often IRGC-linked ambassadors and other military-diplomatic envoys, they have, over the past 40 years, built a capacity to shape the economic and security politics of their most important neighbors, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, in ways that no one else can.
At a time when many Western countries — including the US and UK but significantly not Russia — have weakened their own diplomatic capacities, perhaps foolishly believing those who argue that the future is digital and liberal democracy its own advert, Iran has shown the enduring power of analogue diplomacy, personal relationships, long-term obligations, material inducements, credible intimidation, deliverable military threats and religio-cultural penetration. It is destabilizing, impressive and an object lesson in strategic patience.
This is not going to stop, not least if we continue to deceive ourselves that we are having a serious impact in Syria (even though the US says it will pull out sooner or later), in Iraq (where we parrot the same old story about a change in the political leadership portending a change for the better on the ground) and in Lebanon (where Hezbollah is making it impossible for a weakened Saad Hariri to form a Cabinet without further humiliation). Meanwhile, we underplay Iran’s periodic provocations in the waters of the Gulf, its ballistic missile development and its repeated attempts to launch terror attacks in Europe and the US, most recently on a Mojahedin-e Khalq rally in Paris. Europe’s response? To suggest a non-US dollar clearance mechanism to avoid US financial sanctions on European firms.
And so 2019 will be like the last year, only more so; just as 2018 was like the previous year, only more so. This will continue until a real war erupts again in Syria and Lebanon, involving Israel, Iran’s proxies and perhaps Iran itself, as well as Hamas (which is stepping up its attempts to undermine the Palestinian Authority by sponsoring violence in the West Bank) adding its pennyworth. I keep reading how this won’t happen because no one wants it to happen; the same comforting delusion that always precedes major wars. Neither Hezbollah nor Israel wanted war in 2006 but it still happened. And I’m not at all persuaded that Iran wouldn’t in fact welcome a three-front war somewhere far from its borders that will weaken (it thinks) Israel and embarrass the Arab states that oppose it.
The real answer is a renewed effort by the US, the key European states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to develop a shared understanding of the Iranian challenge and agree on what common action is both desirable and possible. This should include a satisfactory and sustainable settlement of the war in Yemen that restores order, contains the Houthis, excludes Iran and deprives Al-Qaeda of the opportunity to make mischief. Also needed are real and properly enforced red lines to prevent the illegal Iranian supply of missiles, other materiel and training to its regional proxies; support through the Iraqi government for the physical reconstruction of Mosul, Tikrit, the Nineveh Plains and other key areas that will otherwise provide a base for a resurgence of Daesh (which is already happening), and proper relief for refugees; and a more sophisticated and sustained outreach to those inside Iran who want to help their region flourish rather than undermine its security and understand that this can only happen through change from within. We all need to start behaving more like adults, of course. But I’d love it if we could see at least some of that happen in 2019.
• Sir John Jenkins is an Associate at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015.

Why Eastern Syria matters to everyone in the Middle East
سيث ج. فرانتزمان/جيروزاليم بوست/لماذا شرق سوريا هو مهم للجميع في الشرق الأوسط
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/January 01/19
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Why is the area the U.S. is leaving in eastern Syria is neatly separated from the rest of Syria by the Euphrates river so influential?
US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US is withdrawing from Syria has left many questions. Eastern Syria is a large and strategic area sandwiched between Turkey and Iraq. Historically it was also a neglected area of Syria. As the US leaves, threats of conflict hang over the millions of residents who wonder what will come next.
The area the US is leaving in eastern Syria is neatly separated from the rest of Syria by the Euphrates River. This includes the Syrian governorate of Hasakah, and parts of the governorates of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. The only exception is a small area over the Euphrates River where Manbij is located in northern Syria. This is an area of Syria that was deeply affected by the rise of ISIS in 2013. Prior to that, the Kurdish parts of this region had been neglected by the Assad government. Syria stripped 120,000 Kurds of citizenship after 1962. The Assad government has suppressed the Kurdish population with its brand of Arab nationalism, depriving many not only of citizenship, but also pushing them off their lands and seeking to settle Arabs in their place. Kurdish towns were renamed with Arabic names. The suppression created resentment that led to riots in 2004 in Qamishli.
In other areas of eastern Syria, particularly along the Euphrates River valley, a different dynamic took place. With some of the country’s only oil fields and government investment in Deir ez-Zor, some areas benefited. But other Arab tribes followed politics in neighboring Iraq, down the river, more than they focused on Damascus. Reports say that some people kept pictures of Saddam Hussein in their houses, not Assad. After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, instability spread along the border with Iraq as insurgents and foreign fighters used Syria as a corridor to reach Iraq.
Baghdad complained to Damascus about the fighters streaming across the border but Syria didn’t stem the flow, either out of a desire to confront the Americans, or hoping that some of the Islamist extremists increasingly making up the rank and file of insurgents would go to Iraq and not bother the Assad regime. Blowback came Syrian civil war began, when these networks of extremists, using the Euphrates valley to move back and forth began to attack the Syrian regime. ISIS exploited this instability and rose to power in Raqqa in 2013 because of it.
Eastern Syria is a large area, more than twice the size of Israel, almost the size of West Virginia. Resource rich, it has oil in the south near the Euphrates River, and wheat and agriculture in the north along the Turkish border. But it is sparsely populated in many areas, which are desert. Overall the population is several million. It has undergone extreme change during the war with ISIS. Raqqa, liberated in the fall of 2017, still lies in ruin and bodies continue to be discovered from the conflict. OCHA, for instance, identified hundreds of thousands of people in need in eastern Syria in 2018.
Drought also struck some areas. A US AID map of the area in 2017 shows that people needed everything from basic nutrition to shelter and clean water. This was true across the Kurdish areas as well as across the areas liberated from ISIS in 2016-2017. In Hasakah province, NGOs from the FAO helped thousands of families by providing seeds to grow cereals.
The relative security and stability with which this could be provided was made possible by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on the ground and their partnership with the US-led Coalition. Together they had defeated ISIS across a huge swath of eastern Syria. Prior to the intervention of the US in 2014, mostly Kurdish areas had been under siege by ISIS which was had conquered a huge area of Syria and Iraq, ruling over millions. Eventually the SDF, which grew out of the Kurdish People’s Protection (YPG) units, became a larger armed force with Arabs, Kurds and other groups. In never shed claims that it was primarily connected to the YPG and thus linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey argued that the YPG was the Syrian version of the PKK, which it and the US view as terrorists.
Eastern Syria was one area in the Middle East that didn’t fit into the alliances being formed in the region. One alliance is led by Iran and includes the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Shi’ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Lebanon. Another alliance consists of Turkey, Qatar and Syrian opposition factions. A third alliance consists of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt. Not every country in the Middle East is closely affiliated with these three sides. But most of the Arab countries, such as Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, the Palestinian Authority and others are more closely connected to Riyadh than Doha or Ankara.
As the US role in eastern Syria grew in 2017 and 2018, some in the Trump administration saw it as a leverage against Iran’s role in Syria. Officials indicated the US would stay for several years to rebuild and stabilize the area so ISIS wouldn’t return and so Iran wouldn’t extend its influence into the area. But Trump saw US involvement in eastern Syria through the lens of US involvement in the Syrian conflict going back to 2011. He said in his speech in Iraq on December 25 that the US was supposed to be in Syria for three months but had stayed for almost 8 years. It was widely thought the US would be in eastern Syria until at least 2021 when the US decided to leave on December 19.
This has left a whole area of eastern Syria seemingly “up for grabs” by the powerful states in the region. The phenomenon of eastern Syria being run by the SDF had grown out of the instability of the Arab spring. It was one of those ungoverned spaces, like areas in Yemen and Libya. The Syrian regime had melted away and the YPG had been able to seize parts of Hasakah in 2012 and 2013. It embarked on a unique political experiment, applying its far-left governing principles to eastern Syria, which opponents deride as a form of Marxism. Some of this had been accomplished through quiet discussions with the Syrian regime and even Iran. Turkey, the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, the US, Russia, and even Saudi Arabia all sought to play a role in the eastern Syria region. Each saw different things to gain. This is because the area has become a strategic hinge between Turkey, Iran and areas in Iraq. The extremism that grew out of the Euphrates valley that fed ISIS threatened Syria and Iraq, and became a destination for 50,000 foreign fighters. That makes it a strategic asset for the whole region.
The Kurdish success in eastern Syria is also seen as a threat. Turkey views the area as a center of PKK activity which matters to Ankara because since 2015 Turkey has been fighting against a PKK insurgency. Turkey has sought to strike at PKK members in northern Iraq, to reach around behind eastern Syria and cordon off the area. Turkey also intervened in northern Syria and Afrin in northwestern Syria to prevent the YPG from expanding. Turkey now wants to intervene in eastern Syria as a final part of its campaign against the PKK. The US prevented this with its presence.
For Russia, eastern Syria is important because it is one more area that it can help the Syrian regime return to Damascus control and a place it can play a role as a mediator, which increases Moscow’s prestige in the region. Russia helped mediate between Iran and Turkey at Astana, Sochi, Geneva and Idlib. In each place, Russia grew in influence as the one country everyone can go to, replacing the role the US used to play in the region. Eastern Syria would be another feather in Moscow’s cap.
For Iran, eastern Syria may also be important. It has militias that it backs along the Euphrates river. It would like to have influence and also to prevent an ISIS-resurgence. Already Humam al-Hamoudi, a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq has claimed the US withdrawal will fuel ISIS resurgence. He didn’t say this to encourage the US to stay, but rather to encourage Iraq and Iran to play a greater role. Press TV in Iran highlighted this. Soon Iran’s media will be pushing for more involvement, via Iraq, part of its desire to carve out a corridor of influence across Syria.
The US appears to be walking away, but there are voices in the US who want to continue to wield US influence in eastern Syria. In addition US allies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Kurdish region in northern Iraq will want to play a role. The Gulf countries are re-establishing relations with Damascus, which might lead them to play a financial role in rebuilding eastern Syria. It’s clear that media in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are concerned about what might happen as Turkey, Russia and Iran angle for control.
For Syria the end game is clear. It wants eastern Syria back. Initially in some kind of agreement with the SDF or YPG, it will seek to slowly gobble up the area after being surprised by the speed with which the US appears to be leaving. This doesn’t mean the SDF or other entities, such as the YPG, connected to it are finished. The area is of great importance and these groups have had almost half a decade to put down roots openly, after years of living in the shadows under the Assad regime. It also doesn’t mean the extremist networks of ISIS or the networks of the Syrian rebels are finished. ISIS still holds territory and many of these areas have lived free of the regime for almost eight years. None of this will go quietly into the night.

Can Saif al-Islam Qaddafi become President of Libya?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 01/18
There is speculation that Muammar Qaddafi’s oldest son, Saif al-Islam, will shortly announce his candidacy for the Presidency of Libya in the 2019 election. And it appears that he has already secured on important ally in this quest: Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin is already deeply involved in the Libyan Civil War, on the side of the Tobruk faction led by former Qaddafi regime general, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. And the Tobruk faction does seem poised to emerge as the victorious side in Civil War – at least if we set aside emerging internal divisions.
On paper then, this development would make sense for all parties involved: welcome to the new Libya – the same as the old Libya, but hopefully less unhinged, and somewhat more aligned with Moscow.
Nor has news of this development been met with universal rejection in Libya itself. Some seem to actively welcome the potential return to the pre-Civil War order, flawed as it may have been. It does seem that Libya is worn out by the conflict and is more willing to move towards uncomfortable compromises for the sake of peace.
But even some within the Tobruk faction have serious misgivings about this. Al Jazeera, for example, quotes Mohammad al-Darrat, a member of the Tobruk-based Libyan House of Representatives as saying: “If Saif al-Islam wants to return to power, what was the point of the revolution?”
So you can imagine what the Western-backed Tripoli faction in the Civil War will think about the proposition that a Qaddafi would end up being the “unity candidate” in the Presidential election.
A savvier move for Haftar would be to move closer toward the Tripoli faction and court Western powers to acquiesce to his de facto dominion in Libya by backing a “compromise” candidate
The wildcard
The wildcard here, however, is Khalifa Haftar. Will he defer to Putin on this, or will he reject his most reliable and powerful international sponsor?
certainly a case to be made that acquiescing to Saif al-Islam’s plan would undermine his position, as well as thwart much of the recent progress on the ground and some of the important local alliances he has made in recent months.
Haftar needs Putin’s continued support, but may not yield to Putin on what he may consider to be a tactical mistake.
For his part, Putin would likely want to favour the younger Qaddafi for a number of reasons. If this does bring peace to Libya, then the emerging country’s leadership will be firmly indebted to him. But if instead this exacerbates the Libyan Civil War, this is no loss to the Kremlin.
On the one hand, a chaotic Libya will continue to be bad news for Europe, which will continue to see an overflow of refugees for which no central authority in Libya is accountable. On the other, the weaker the position of Haftar in Libya, the more dependent he is on Moscow.
A savvier move for Haftar would be to move closer toward the Tripoli faction and court Western powers to acquiesce to his de facto dominion in Libya by backing a “compromise” candidate that can seem more independent minded, but which would owe his position to the backing of the Tobruk faction.
Factional makeups
And then, allow for a degree of decentralization which would allow different regions, with their different tribal and factional makeups an increasing degree of responsibility for their own problems and grievances.
Haftar’s forces would become the de jure army of the united Libya, and Haftar’s own position and power would be guaranteed as commander in chief of the nation’s army, but civilian politics would be allowed to manifest and try to resolve the differences and competing claims of the vast plurality of constituencies in Libya, even as Haftar’s Libyan army retains the monopoly over the use of force.
Best of all, Haftar would be able to untether himself from his dependency on the Kremlin, and forge an independent path for Libya by playing Russia and the West of each other.
But we will have to wait and see how things develop. And what is perhaps even more interesting, we will have to wait and see how the people of Libya actually vote in the general election.

New Year, new Congress and renewed political disaster for the Middle East
Walid Jawad/Al Arabiya/January 01/18
Are you ready for the constant hypnotic humdrum of US politics yet? Now that we are counting down to the last 10 seconds of 2018, we reflect on those trivial and pivotal decisions we’ve made.
We are also reminded of the challenges within our communities, nations and perhaps internationally. Of most interest are the decisions and events that define or redefine our lives. For better or worse, when the clock strikes 12, we get a brand new year, but we continue to deal with the decisions we’ve made in 2018 and prior.
The predictive quality of the human mind cannot be overstated. Individuals have daydreams while societies have histories to guide their future. There is no crystal ball for any of us to see the future through, but reviewing the latest events can provide us with what is needed to predict what's to come.
The drumbeat of America’s ever-muddled political saga didn’t stop over the holiday season. The train-wreck that is the White House, Congress, and the Court's continues to unfold in a power play of intrigue. The spillover effect regarding the Middle East is profound. Today, as I review with you a couple of those aspects we can make some predictions and verbalize our hopes. The following is at play:
Perhaps Democrats will tackle immigration reform next in conjunction with pressuring the White House to reverse Trump’s decision to pull all US troops out of Syria
White House and the new Congress
The many challenges President Donald J. Trump had with Congress over the almost years are going to pale in comparison to the acrimony to ensue over the next two. The Republican party, which Trump leads, was reinforced by leading the White House, Congress and now more conservative-leaning justices in the Supreme Court.
Since his 2016 inauguration, Trump’s Republican party had control over both chambers of Congress: the US House of Representatives (the lower chamber) and the US Senate (the upper chamber). At the time, the Republican agenda had a number of causes on its platform, but they were unable to repeal and replace Obamacare; the Affordable Care Act of the Obama presidency which Trump promised voters to reverse.
Republicans also failed to build the wall along the US-Mexico border. Trump repeatedly promised to make Mexico pay for it, but when that failed he turned to Congress demanding to pass a spending bill that includes border wall funding. That too has failed. The current partial US government shutdown is predicated on Trump’s refusal of any spending bill that doesn’t include a $5 billion border wall.
The Republicans, however, were successful in passing a tax reform bill that was packaged as a win for all Americans. The irony is that such a win is skewed towards the rich. Further, the long-term effects will ensure that the middle class will pay a disproportionate portion toward the anticipated revenue deficits the bill will cause the US budget.
Arabs in the House
Those three fights, among other issues, gave Democratic candidates the fuel they needed to win back control of the US House of Representatives in the last midterm elections this past November.
Now that the Republican president is leading a fractured government, he will face far greater challenges to deliver on his promises or push for his Party’s legislative agenda. Many of the new Democratic Congressional Representatives have ridden a wave of diversity in the aftermath of the #MeToo movement and the racial tensions which reached a crescendo last year.
On January 3rd, the new 116th Congress will include the first female-Palestinian-Muslim American Rashida Tlaib and the first female-Somali-Muslim American Ilhan Omar, both Arab-Americans. Donna Shalala, the Lebanese American, rounds out the new cohort of Arab-American members of Congress. The total number of Arab American members of Congress stands at eight, divided equally between the Republican and Democratic parties.
Middle East to the slaughterhouse
We can predict a flurry of activities to come once the new Congress is in place including the much anticipated White House announcement of Jared Kushner’s Middle East plan. But before that announcement, Congress will offer its opinion on Trump’s latest decision to pull the remaining US troops out of Syria and the drawdown to half of the 14,000 troops currently stationed in Afghanistan.
The White House Mideast policy trajectory does not bode well for the region. Trump’s strategy of disengagement is counterproductive to the people of the region and goes against US national interests. As a result, America’s partners in the Middle East are finding it increasingly difficult to align their goals with an absent partner.
Case in point, the US has the strategic goal of neutralizing Iran’s expansionist strategy, yet its fighting its own battle in Yemen against al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are fighting Iran’s Houthi loyalists to the detriment of Yemeni people.
Contrarian Democrats
The 116 Congress has already signaled a forward-leaning approach to international dynamics. The US House will aggressively investigate the Trump presidential election’s Russia collision allegations now that Democrats will chair the Intelligence Committee. Further, Democrats will have more input as they chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Now that they are taking over the US House of Representatives, the Democrats feel empowered to be more contrarian. Instead of formulating a proactively positive strategy, they confuse their mandate for simple opposition to anything Trump.
This is not a hopeful situation for the US. The Democrats must stop their negative position and start standing for something positive and proactive. The decades-long strategy of opposing the Republicans will not advance the US or its allies, friends, or partners.
I predict more talk of impeachment, but Trump will avoid the process lest the Special Council Robert Mueller’s investigation yields criminality. The Democrat’s will avoid the urge to initiate the procedures if Nancy Pelosi is voted on as Speaker of the House as expected. She is fully aware that such a move might satisfy a small core of the Democratic constituency but will invite the wrath of a nation. The American people have no appetite for the theatrical indignation of a dysfunctional Congress.
First things first, what will the new Congress do regarding the current government shutdown is of utmost importance as the nation awaits a resolution. If public opinion continues to be against Trump, the Democrats will flex their legislative muscles.
Perhaps Democrats will tackle immigration reform next in conjunction with pressuring the White House to reverse Trump’s decision to pull all US troops out of Syria. My hesitation in listing any predictions lies in Trump’s White House uncanny ability to stir up controversy and create new challenges for itself.

The European Union: An Authoritarian Body with a Humanitarian Face
Jiří Payne/Gatestone Institute/January 01/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13476/european-union-authoritarian
What the Lisbon Treaty actually created was an authoritarian political system that infringes on human and political rights.
Article 4 states in part: "...The Member States shall facilitate the achievement of the Union's tasks and refrain from any measure which could jeopardise the attainment of the Union's objectives." In other words, the interests of the Union are above the interests of individual states and citizens.
In a democratic system with a healthy balance of power, a ruling coalition can be challenged or replaced by the opposition. This is precisely what is lacking in the EU, as the Treaty of Lisbon requires that European Commission members be selected on the basis of their "European commitment." This means, in effect, that anyone with a dissenting view may never become a member of the Commission. As history repeatedly demonstrates, where there is no opposition, freedom is lost.
The Treaty of Lisbon considers the interests of the European Union to be above the interests of individual states and citizens. Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, complained in 2016: "Too many politicians are listening exclusively to their national opinion. And if you are listening to your national opinion you are not developing what should be a common European sense..." (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
The Treaty of Lisbon -- drafted as a replacement to the 2005 Constitutional Treaty and signed in 2007 by the leaders of the 27 European Union member states -- describes itself as an agreement to "reform the functioning of the European Union... [it] sets out humanitarian assistance as a specific Commission competence."
What the Lisbon Treaty actually created, however, was an authoritarian political system that infringes on human and political rights.
Take the mandate of the European Commission (EC), for instance. According to Article 17 of the Treaty:
"The Commission shall promote the general interest of the Union... In carrying out its responsibilities, the Commission shall be completely independent... the members of the Commission shall neither seek nor take instructions from any Government or other institution, body, office or entity."
Then there is Article 4, which states in part:
"...The Member States shall facilitate the achievement of the Union's tasks and refrain from any measure which could jeopardise the attainment of the Union's objectives."
In other words, the interests of the Union are above the interests of individual states and citizens. This is not mere speculation. The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, openly stated in 2016:
"Too many politicians are listening exclusively to their national opinion. And if you are listening to your national opinion you are not developing what should be a common European sense and a feeling of the need to put together efforts. We have too many part-time Europeans."
The same year, Emmanuel Macron -- at the time France's Economy Minister -- gave an interview to Time magazine, in which he warned against the U.K.'s upcoming Brexit referendum by arguing:
"You can suddenly have a series of countries waking up and saying, 'I want the same status as the Brits,' which will be de facto the dismantling of the rest of Europe. We should not replicate the situation where one country is in a situation to hijack the rest of Europe, because they organize a referendum."
Macron's attitude is reflected in the Lisbon Treaty, which imposes regulations on member states to ensure they fulfill tasks determined by the European Commission.
It is noteworthy in this context that of the 36 times that the word "responsibility" appears in the Treaty, only once does it refer to a Commission obligation -- which is that it, "as a body, shall be responsible to the European Parliament." The other 35 refer to obligations of the member states.
In a democratic system with a healthy balance of power, a ruling coalition can be challenged or replaced by the opposition. This is precisely what is lacking in the EU, as the Treaty of Lisbon requires that European Commission members be selected on the basis of their "European commitment." This means, in effect, that anyone with a dissenting view may never become a member of the Commission -- something eerily reminiscent of Communism. Article 4 of the Czechoslovak Constitution of 1960, for instance, specifies:
"The leading force in society and in the state is the vanguard of the working class, the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, a voluntary combat union of the most active and knowledgeable citizens of the ranks of workers, peasants and intelligentsia."
Article11 of the North Korean Constitution includes a similar directive:
"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea shall conduct all activities under the leadership of the Workers' Party of Korea."
As history repeatedly demonstrates, where there is no opposition, freedom is lost.
In his 1840 book, Democracy in America, the renowned French diplomat and historian Alexis de Tocqueville wrote:
"...If despotism were to establish itself in today's democratic nations, it would probably have a different character. It would be more extensive and more mild, and it would degrade men without tormenting them...
"The sovereign, after taking individuals one by one in his powerful hands and kneading them to his liking, reaches out to embrace society as a whole. Over it he spreads a fine mesh of uniform, minute, and complex rules, through which not even the most original minds and most vigorous souls can poke their heads above the crowd. He does not break men's wills but softens, bends, and guides them. He seldom forces anyone to act but consistently opposes action. He does not destroy things but prevents them from coming into being. Rather than tyrannize, he inhibits, represses, saps, stifles, and stultifies, and in the end he reduces each nation to nothing but a flock of timid and industrious animals, with the government as its shepherd..."
De Tocqueville penned these nearly two full centuries ago, but they could easily -- and frighteningly -- be applied to Europe today.
Dr. Jiří Payne is a Czech conservative member of the European Parliament and of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group. He is a former member of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic (1993-2002) and co-founder and co-chairman of Friends of Judea and Samaria in the European Parliament. He is co-author of It Can Work Differently: Searching for an Alternative Arrangement of the Continent (2018) and Stolen Europe (2015).
*The article was translated by Josef Zbořil and is reprinted here with the kind permission of the author.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

US Must Define its Relationship with Baghdad
Meghan O’Sullivan/Bloomberg/January 01/19
The move of President Donald Trump to visit Baghdad last week is a small, good one, amid a week of calamitous decisions. The press will understandably highlight the time that Trump spends with US troops. Yet a key objective of the trip will have been to shore up the new Iraqi government's confidence in the US, as Iraqi officials must be high on the list of those shocked by the president’s recent decisions to rapidly withdraw US forces from Syria and Afghanistan. Perhaps the president has realized that his administration has some hard work to do if there is any hope of keeping his latest determinations from dramatically strengthening Iran.
The Middle East is a complicated place, where generations of American presidents and policymakers have struggled to prioritize competing interests, balance delicate relationships and manage inevitable trade-offs. Yet Trump’s actions and words — at least until before he announced the pullout — made it clear that his highest priority was on containing and punishing Iran in an effort to get Tehran to the negotiating table to reach a new, sweeping agreement on both its nuclear program and its other destabilizing behavior in the region.
Other priorities in US Middle East policy have suffered to some extent as a result of this near-myopic focus on Iran. The desire to have Saudi Arabia as a strong partner in containing Iran has been an important part of shaping Trump’s calculus toward Riyadh.
Moreover, the focus on Iran has put the new government in Baghdad in unnecessary and challenging situations, at a time when Washington should be making every investment in its success. The Trump administration has only grudgingly granted two 45-day waivers to Iraq for its continued importation of Iranian natural gas (opposed to the 180 days others received). The Iraqi government has placed valuable time and political capital into facing the choice between being subject to US sanctions or losing the energy source that powers nearly a third of Iraq’s electricity.
Nevertheless, while one might not have agreed on the wisdom of making Iran so central to US foreign policy in the Middle East, at least the above tradeoffs could be debated around policy views and threat assessments. Serious professionals could disagree. This is no longer the case. Trump, in his recent announcement to draw down troops from Syria and Afghanistan, is taking steps that work against all of his professed goals with Iran — for no apparent gain elsewhere.
First, an American withdrawal from Syria will remove a curb on nefarious Iranian activity in the region and open up new opportunities for Iran to embed itself in various countries there. The US presence in Syria, although small, has helped curb the activities of Iran and its ally Hezbollah. It has also helped frustrate Iran’s ability to establish a land bridge connecting Iran to the Mediterranean and, as a result, has limited Iranian regional interventions. With the US vacating Syria, Iran will now be well positioned to compete for territory currently held by US partners, and Hezbollah will be able to make a stronger stand near Israel.
Second, the withdrawal will make achieving the administration’s declared goal of a tougher, more comprehensive agreement with Tehran all but unimaginable. Getting Tehran to meet a fraction of Secretary of State Michael Pompeo’s “12 demands” — including a full withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria — was always going to be tough. But American diplomats will be particularly challenged to produce Iranian concessions in a situation where the United States has even less leverage due to the withdrawal of its troops.
American influence in the region will also be weakened, and Iran’s enhanced, by the probable outcome in Afghanistan. In any negotiation with the Taliban, America’s greatest leverage is its troop presence, given the Taliban’s intense focus on getting the US troops to leave. However, now, the president has begun to meet the Taliban’s main demand before any real talks get underway. A return to civil war is, sadly, not out of the question. While Iran would not welcome such chaos, it will cheer the departure of US troops from its eastern flank, having long complained about the “encirclement” it has felt since 9/11.
Iran, nevertheless, has plenty of reasons to go through the motions of dialogue. Iran would have nothing to lose in exploring this possibility and could gain short-term sanctions relief from the process.
The tragedy of Trump’s withdrawal announcements goes far beyond US strategy with Iran, to affect the security of America’s allies and partners in Europe and the Middle East, the lives of millions on the ground, and American standing globally. What can be done to mitigate this disaster?
It seems likely that the broad contours of the US withdrawal are not negotiable; departing Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and Brett McGurk, the special presidential envoy for the global coalition to defeat ISIS, would have not resigned had they thought the withdrawal could be reversed. However, in the implementation there is always a significant opportunity to shave the edges off a misguided strategy.
For instance, those responsible for drawing down troops in Afghanistan and Syria could seek to define withdrawals as boots on the ground, as opposed to all military support. This might enable the US to continue to play the absolutely vital role of air power to those we support in both Syria and Afghanistan — and could help keep the forces of other countries such as the UK and France involved.
In addition, the timeline for troop withdrawal could be broken into phases and extended, and potentially could involve some conditions-based benchmarks.
Crucially, in the run-up to any withdrawal, the US should seek to secure agreements from countries like Turkey to stay engaged in the fight against the remnants of ISIS, so they do not shift priorities entirely.
Finally, the US must clarify its relationship with Baghdad and underscore its willingness to leave a US troop presence there longer; while it will be hard to convince Baghdad that Trump will not wake up one day and decide to withdraw from Iraq, every effort should be made to embed the American presence there as the last foothold in a region where ISIS’s defeat is still far from certain and stabilization remains a long-term goal.

Life is Getting Harder for Central Banks
Mohamed El-Erian/Bloomberg//January 01/19
For reasons largely outside its control, the Federal Reserve is now being widely blamed for fueling financial market instability and risking derailment of the U.S. economy. This is quite a contrast from just a few month ago, when it was still being feted by many for its role as an active and effective repressor of financial market volatility. It is probably only a matter of time until the European Central Bank finds itself in a similar, perhaps tougher position. The reality is both central banks have entered a new, more uncertain phase that is likely to last for some time, requiring more skillful policy navigation and communication, and some operational changes.
Coming out of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks went out of their way to boost asset prices as a means of supporting the economy. They suppressed volatility by driving down interest rates; buying huge amounts of debt securities and housing them securely on their balance sheets; and, when a bout of volatility occurred, being quick to reassure markets of their broad and consistent support.
This unprecedented phase of central banking had its natural limits.
As detailed in my 2016 book, the benefits of buying time for the economy to heal came with costs and unintended consequences. Accordingly, when the conditions to normalize policy arose, the Fed pivoted by stopping its asset-purchase program, hiking interest rates nine times and slowly reducing its balance sheet. The ECB followed with a considerable lag. After tapering its asset-purchase program during the past few months, it will halt it at the end of this year and may start raising rates during the summer.
But what started out as a relatively smooth and orderly process has become more problematic -- especially for the Fed, which is being accused of fueling financial volatility and risking the country’s economic well-being.
Stock markets are experiencing wild intraday swings, while falling prices have delivered one of the worse Decembers ever for equities. With that, the measure of household consumer sentiment reported last week came in below consensus forecasts, at the same time that consumer confidence expectations also tumbled.
Yet much of the volatility of recent weeks is due to factors outside the Fed’s control. They include:
- A slower global expansion as both Europe and China struggle to implement of pro-growth policies;
- Other economic concerns, from the partial shutdown of the federal government to trade policy as markets wait to see which concessions China will offer the U.S. to end the trade war between the two countries;
- Asset prices that, for years, were decoupled from fundamentals amid ample and predictable liquidity; and
- The proliferation of passive investing, computer trading and exchange-traded funds, including some that promised liquidity in inherently less liquid asset classes, potentially amplifying the risk of contagion both on the way up and on the way down.
It is only a matter of time until the spot light also shines on the ECB. Because its normalization process is now focused on balance-sheet policy rather than the more visible interest-rate moves, it hasn’t yet attracted the same attention as the Fed. Yet this process faces many more questions on account of the slow growth in the euro zone, some weaknesses in the region's banking system, pockets of excessive indebtedness and political gridlock that limits needed structural and fiscal reforms.
Against that backdrop, the risk has risen that volatility could undermine the global economy, and that some investors may lose confidence in the orderly functioning of financial markets. Naturally, this is obscuring the benefits of a long-due transition to a less distorted financial regime that, otherwise, would have threatened much larger economic damage down the road.
There is no easy way out of this situation. Indeed, the spotlight will shine even more brightly on the Fed next year. This will become most apparent at the news conferences, now to be held after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where Chairman Jerome Powell is asked to opine on inherently tricky and uncertain policy decisions, options and outlooks.
Whichever way you look at it, central banks will be exposed to more criticism from politicians, market participants and analysts. Having said that, there are a few things they could do. For example, in the case of the Fed, consideration could be given to the following steps, including in the context of the review of communications practices that Powell has already launched: Conveying more consistently and credibly that policy makers are sensitive to the risk of spillbacks from a weakening global economy and market disruptions; signaling the possibility that the automatic pilot governing its balance-sheet reduction is subject to review; and phasing out the blue dot plot that shows policy makers' individual expectations for future rate increase in favor of communications that portray the range of possible outcomes. This might be more along the lines of what the Bank of England does with its quarterly inflation report.
These steps will not take the Fed out of the firing line. Yet they can play a role in lowering the risks of a policy mistake or market accident.

What is the role of Turkey in Syria?
Khaled Al-Sulaiman/Al Arabiya/January 01/19
One of the main reasons for the Syrian revolution against the regime of Bashar Al-Assad was the support they received from regional countries, especially Turkey, who took a strong stand against the Syrian regime at the start of the revolution. This drove many Syrians to make huge sacrifices in the hope that they could create the country they were dreaming of, as was promised by neighboring countries. When the first red line by the former US President Barack Obama was broken, international support for the Syrian people and the desire to protect them from genocide began to decline. Despite the many victories achieved on the ground, Russian intervention not only turned the tables, but it exposed the stands of many regional countries that were claiming to protect the interests of the Syrian people. It was finally exposed that they were only defending their own interests in the name of protecting the Syrian people. They were searching for their own piece of the Syrian pie.
Saudi journalist Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed, in a recent column, wrote about the Turkish government and Syria getting closer together and the reality of Turkish military action in Syria and the under-the-table dialogue of the Turks with the allies of the Syrian regime.
It was finally exposed that they were only defending their own interests in the name of protecting the Syrian people. They were searching for their own piece of the Syrian pie. While the countries supporting the rights of the Syrian people found that their noble intentions collided with the politics of big countries, the stand of Turkey changed back and forth. It is no longer acceptable nor is there any justification for Turkey to engage in political dialogue with allies of the Syrian regime to defend the Syrian people and put an end to bloodshed. In fact, Turkey has only offered the Syrian people surrender agreements, while at the same time, the Turkish military was killing Syrians in another geographic location claiming that they were fighting the Kurds.
In Syria, there is a table with a dead body ot that is being divided by the same faces, even if the masks are different.

What has changed in Saudi Arabia
Salman al-Dosary/Al Arabiya/January 01/19
Upon royal orders, the process of structural reforms continue in the Kingdom, which ends another year of a long path towards promoting economic and social transformation.
It is a path designed to keep abreast of developments sweeping the world and overcome nearby challenges, and to shape a future that can only see light through the fitting and appropriate means…A future, the features of which have started to translate into leaps achieved by ministries working according to governance and performance indicators; a leadership that points to the imbalances and reforms them; a coherent society that is not shaken by a conspiracy or an unjust campaign; and a state budget focused on providing excellent services for the citizens; as well as promising indicators of economic performance.
The deficit is falling while spending is rising, and above all, citizens are always waiting for the best of their country as a basic right. Saudi Arabia is changing for the better, and the Saudis believe that the most beautiful is yet to come. Trying to impose certain policies or agendas proved to be harmful more than useful, if not unrealistic. Each society is able to determine its priorities that stem from its particular needs. Women drove the car when many thought it was impossible. Women sat side by side driving their cars in the streets of Riyadh, Jeddah, Khobar, Jazan and other Saudi cities. There has not been a single harassment case against women since they were allowed to drive. This is what is really striking about how this society can evolve and change positively without abandoning its gains and values.
Women’s right to drive was not the only indicator, but only one example. This month, the beautiful Ad-Diriyah hosted the Formula E race, which was watched by about 80 million people around the world. As soon as the big international race ended, “Winter at Tantora” Festival was launched in Al-Ula, and the world witnessed how this country continues to modernize and heads towards the future at a record speed, while at the same time still upholds its originality. Even the debate taking place within the Saudi society around some of the social reforms is, in my opinion, a healthy debate. Everyone has the right to make a statement and express a point of view. Those who do not like those reforms, for example, have the right not to participate. This is an inherent right that no one can contest. It is natural that any changes witnessed by society cannot be understood by everyone at the same time. There are those who need a longer period than others to absorb the changes. However, it is agreed that no one has the right to impose personal convictions on others. An ‘artificial’ storm and the reality of Saudi Arabia. The amount of unprecedented popular interaction with the new image of Saudi Arabia gives an indication of the extent to which the Saudis welcome this long-awaited transformation. A quick look at the strong participation of tens of thousands of people in the two events which were held only a few days apart, i.e. the Formula E and “Winter at Tantora”, shows the thirst of the Saudis and their enthusiasm for what is happening in their country. As we talk about economic and social reforms in Saudi Arabia, many tend to link this transformation to political reform. In principle, reform is a requirement, but it is also a means, not an end. Setting priorities is the responsibility of every society.There isn’t a single rule for all states to pursue in their reform projects. Societies evolve according to their needs and culture; what suits the French society may not be appropriate for the American culture; and China’s gigantic economic reform should not necessarily be similar to economic reforms elsewhere in the world. Trying to impose certain policies or agendas proved to be harmful more than useful, if not unrealistic. Each society is able to determine its priorities that stem from its particular needs.

US pullout from Syria, a trap or a true lifeline?
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/January 01/19
The US withdrawal from Syria without a pull-out from Iraq is deemed as a plot. Russia will host a trilateral meeting in January to discuss the repercussions of the American withdrawal from Syria and how to build on this without relinquishing any of the positive transformations in the war-torn country. In other words, Russia will not let others reap the benefits at the expense of the Syrians and will counter any terrorist activities as a result of this withdrawal. The end of 2018 brought many surprises and revealed some important trances on the Syrian track. Some regional powers have realized that this pull-out is a very positive sign for a brighter future for Syria. The UAE embassy has reopened in Damascus and the Bahraini embassy will be reopened shortly. Saudi Arabia has nothing against Syria returning to the Arab League. Tunisia has resumed flights with Syria. The Syrian army has entered Manbij after the Kurdish militias (YPG) pulled out prior the Turkish operation in the region, thus disrupting Ankara’s plans. It is clear that several Arab countries decided to change strategy regarding Syria, to have a presence in Syria and not to leave it to be under the dominance of Iran. They consider that Syria’s return to the Arab orbit will limit Iranian power in the region and as it was stated by the UAE’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, “communication with Damascus will not leave the region open to Iranian interference.”
Talks by all the Arab states regarding the transition of power in Syria will come to nought, especially taking into account that with any election to be held in Syria, the winner is highly predictable
Maria Dubovikova
Talks by all the Arab states regarding the transition of power in Syria will come to nought, especially taking into account that with any election to be held in Syria, the winner is highly predictable. Syria should yet nurture political figures strong enough to replace the current leadership. For now the Arab countries can go for a deal with Assad proposing him to be welcomed by the Arab states and to direct him away from the Iran. The predicament of Iran and its interference is taken into account by Russia, as Moscow works out an opportunity to replace Iran-backed forces with the Sudanese army, which will limit Israeli opportunities in sowing problems on the Israeli-Syrian border and bombarding Iran-related facilities in Syria.
Poison in the honey?
However, the withdrawal is a trap as Russians say: “There is some poison in the honey.” The move is appearing more as a kind of a trap for Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran rather than a withdrawal for considerations of rationality and the economy. Though Damascus is happy with this announcement, there is very little to be happy with as this vacuum resulting from withdrawal also has the potential to lead Syria into becoming another Iraq. The US withdrawal significantly strengthens the Turkish position. Taking into account the recent warming relations between Ankara and Washington, Turkey becomes one of the strongest players in the region. These developments are making Turkey a black box for the regional players. Turkey will be less predictable in its foreign policy movements. It might become more aggressive in terms of pursuing its geopolitical goals, including eradication of the Kurdish threat.
It is clear at the end of 2018 that Turkey had the option of intervening militarily in the east of the Euphrates under the guise of a preventive measures. This is what Washington wants, but there is a danger of confrontation with the Russians, Iranians and the Syrian army. Ankara and Washington rule out such a clash and see that Moscow will accept a compromise.
An adventurous bid
However, Turkey understands that the adventurous bid to be more involved in Syria would threaten Ankara's security and would place Turkey in a direct collision with Russia, the Syrian army and Iran even if they choose not to engage in direct confrontation with the Turkish army, the latter would be exposed to an expensive war of attrition. However, with US support, Turkey feels more confident about what it can afford to win and lose. In the first half of the year, Turkey is likely to continue its intense contacts with Moscow and Tehran to coordinate its own moves because Ankara needs to test US sincerity when Washington talks about cooperation in Syria and many other files. Also noteworthy is that the US withdrawal gives a chance for ISIS to regroup its forces and regain its capabilities to be a more active for years to come, endangering stability in the region. It could be the US plan to return once ISIS rises again, proving to the world that it is helpless without mighty hand of Washington. However, this is just a supposition. Syria is now walking on a tight rope. The majority of recent developments are giving hope, rather than spreading skepticism. All regional powers are trying to find a political settlement for the war in Syria, away from Iranian involvement in an Arab country. The coming weeks will tell whether the American withdrawal will help reach this goal.